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000
FXUS65 KCYS 030934 AAA
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
334 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

PRETTY QUIET WEATHER EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RIDGE AXIS BUILDING OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BRINGING MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO WASHINGTON
AND OREGON. THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY IMPACT WYOMING THIS
WEEKEND. BEFORE THIS...CURRENT WATER VAPOR ALSO SHOWS A WELL
DEFINED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ALOFT NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
WITH MID TO HIGH CLOUDS MOVING NORTHWARD WELL AHEAD OF IT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY. A FEW MODELS
SHOW THIS FEATURE MOVING OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON
PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AS SHORT RANGE
MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR INDICATE REDEVELOPMENT AND TRAINING OVER
THE SAME AREA INTO LATE THIS EVENING. THIS IS DUE TO A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL JET AND GOOD 300MB DIFLUENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER...NOT ALL
MODELS AGREE ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...WITH THE ECMWF AND
GEM 3 TO 6 HOURS BEHIND THE GFS. DUE TO PEAK HEATING AND AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY...THIS TIMING DIFFERENCE IS SIGNIFICANT. THE NEW 06Z
NAM IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND HRRR...SO CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE I25
AND I80 CORRIDORS BY THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED POP ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CARBON COUNTY. INCREASED POP
BETWEEN 30 TO 60 PERCENT FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...SINCE THERE IS
STILL LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHOWER/TSTORM COVERAGE NORTH OF THE PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES.

FRIDAY WILL BE PRETTY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S TO MID 90S AND ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND TSTORMS. IN FACT...CONDITIONS APPEAR MORE FAVORABLE IN THE
EVENING AS THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF SHOW QUITE A BIT OF UPPER
LEVEL DIFLUENCE DUE TO JET DYNAMICS ALOFT. THIS DYNAMIC LIFT PEAKS
BETWEEN 00Z TO 06Z FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST.
INCREASED POP UP TO 45 PERCENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY
EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 80S...BUT THE PRIMARY COLD
FRONT WILL NOT ENTER SOUTHEAST WYOMING UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS MAIN STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND REMAIN
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT POP BETWEEN 10 TO 20 PERCENT
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...DUE TO SOME DRIER
AIR ALOFT AND A STABLE LAYER AROUND 500MB WHICH WILL INHIBIT
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN WY
ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING WITH AN ASSOCIATED FROPA.  WINDS WILL
REALLY INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUN MORNING AS THE MODELS SHOW
700MB WINDS OF 35-40 KTS OVER SOUTHEAST WY.  THE GRADIENT DOES BEGIN
TO RELAX BY THE AFTN SO WINDS WILL COME DOWN SOME.  WITH A VERY DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE ON SUN AND MIN RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 15
PERCENT...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DESPITE
THE COOLER TEMPS.  DRY WESTERLY MIDLVL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PW VALUES OF ONLY 0.25-0.5 INCHES AND
NO HINT OF ANY MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTRUSION.  TEMPS WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL FOR EARLY SEP WITH COOLER NIGHTS THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY.
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF REALLY BEGIN TO SHOW
UP BY TUES AS THE GFS SHOWS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WY.
REGARDLESS OF THE SOLN...A DRY FCST WILL PREVAIL WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 20Z THURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

IT WILL BE PRETTY DRY INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING BEFORE SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. ALTHOUGH FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE LOW TODAY...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR WIND SPEEDS ACROSS
ZONE 301 AND 302. FOR NOW...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 20 MPH
AT THIS TIME. MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL TREND HIGHER...MINIMUM DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL BE BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT BY SATURDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...TJT



000
FXUS65 KCYS 030934 AAA
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
334 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

PRETTY QUIET WEATHER EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RIDGE AXIS BUILDING OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BRINGING MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO WASHINGTON
AND OREGON. THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY IMPACT WYOMING THIS
WEEKEND. BEFORE THIS...CURRENT WATER VAPOR ALSO SHOWS A WELL
DEFINED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ALOFT NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
WITH MID TO HIGH CLOUDS MOVING NORTHWARD WELL AHEAD OF IT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY. A FEW MODELS
SHOW THIS FEATURE MOVING OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON
PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AS SHORT RANGE
MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR INDICATE REDEVELOPMENT AND TRAINING OVER
THE SAME AREA INTO LATE THIS EVENING. THIS IS DUE TO A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL JET AND GOOD 300MB DIFLUENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER...NOT ALL
MODELS AGREE ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...WITH THE ECMWF AND
GEM 3 TO 6 HOURS BEHIND THE GFS. DUE TO PEAK HEATING AND AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY...THIS TIMING DIFFERENCE IS SIGNIFICANT. THE NEW 06Z
NAM IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND HRRR...SO CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE I25
AND I80 CORRIDORS BY THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED POP ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CARBON COUNTY. INCREASED POP
BETWEEN 30 TO 60 PERCENT FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...SINCE THERE IS
STILL LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHOWER/TSTORM COVERAGE NORTH OF THE PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES.

FRIDAY WILL BE PRETTY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S TO MID 90S AND ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND TSTORMS. IN FACT...CONDITIONS APPEAR MORE FAVORABLE IN THE
EVENING AS THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF SHOW QUITE A BIT OF UPPER
LEVEL DIFLUENCE DUE TO JET DYNAMICS ALOFT. THIS DYNAMIC LIFT PEAKS
BETWEEN 00Z TO 06Z FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST.
INCREASED POP UP TO 45 PERCENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY
EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 80S...BUT THE PRIMARY COLD
FRONT WILL NOT ENTER SOUTHEAST WYOMING UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS MAIN STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND REMAIN
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT POP BETWEEN 10 TO 20 PERCENT
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...DUE TO SOME DRIER
AIR ALOFT AND A STABLE LAYER AROUND 500MB WHICH WILL INHIBIT
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN WY
ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING WITH AN ASSOCIATED FROPA.  WINDS WILL
REALLY INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUN MORNING AS THE MODELS SHOW
700MB WINDS OF 35-40 KTS OVER SOUTHEAST WY.  THE GRADIENT DOES BEGIN
TO RELAX BY THE AFTN SO WINDS WILL COME DOWN SOME.  WITH A VERY DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE ON SUN AND MIN RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 15
PERCENT...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DESPITE
THE COOLER TEMPS.  DRY WESTERLY MIDLVL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PW VALUES OF ONLY 0.25-0.5 INCHES AND
NO HINT OF ANY MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTRUSION.  TEMPS WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL FOR EARLY SEP WITH COOLER NIGHTS THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY.
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF REALLY BEGIN TO SHOW
UP BY TUES AS THE GFS SHOWS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WY.
REGARDLESS OF THE SOLN...A DRY FCST WILL PREVAIL WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 20Z THURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

IT WILL BE PRETTY DRY INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING BEFORE SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. ALTHOUGH FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE LOW TODAY...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR WIND SPEEDS ACROSS
ZONE 301 AND 302. FOR NOW...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 20 MPH
AT THIS TIME. MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL TREND HIGHER...MINIMUM DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL BE BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT BY SATURDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...TJT



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000
FXUS65 KRIW 030907
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
307 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

A FEW SHOWERS MOVING TOWARDS WESTERN WYOMING THIS MORNING. MENTION
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE DURING THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS. A DRIER
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG TODAY AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH. SOME
ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERATING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.COVERAGE LOOKS MOST FAVORABLE OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS....AND REACHING INTO THE JACKSON VALLEY.

AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH ON
FRIDAY...ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. SOME MODEL VARIANCE DEMONSTRATED ON FRIDAY. THE
GFS SHOWS THAT THE PUSH OF MOISTURE MAY BE STRONGER...WITH SHOWERS
COVERING A LOT OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THIS MODEL IS THE
CURRENT OUTLIER IN A SEA OF DRIER MODEL SOLUTIONS. LEFT THE LIMITED
PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR NOW.

WEATHER BECOMES MORE INTERESTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE STATE. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ASIDE FROM COLDER
TEMPERATURES...MODELS INDICATE DECENT STORM COVERAGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER INTO THE STATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...EXPECTING SHOWER COVERAGE TO ALSO INCREASE...WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY EVENING.
THE BEST COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE WEST OF THE DIVIDE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS IT MOVES
THROUGH WYOMING OVER THE WEEKEND...HELPING TO KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY
GENERALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN WYOMING.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA OR NEARLY SO BY 12Z SUNDAY...WITH WINDY TO VERY WINDY
WESTERLY WINDS IN TYPICAL SPOTS SUCH AS THE LEE SIDE OF MOUNTAIN
RANGES AND IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WIND CORRIDORS. MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION BY SUNRISE SUNDAY SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA ACROSS MONTANA...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTHWEST AND POSSIBLY EXTREME NORTH. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY LINGERING PRECIP SUNDAY MORNING TO BE
MAINLY SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. THE WIND
COMBINED WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD
TO ELEVATED AND PERHAPS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF FREMONT...NATRONA AND SWEETWATER COUNTIES.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING ONE OR
TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OF VARYING INTENSITIES/TRACKS DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/PLAINS. THE 00Z GFS SHOWS ONE STRONGER AND SLOWER SYSTEM
WHILE THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A COUPLE WEAKER SYSTEMS. HAVE BROAD
BRUSHED SLIGHT MOUNTAIN POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTH FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE SYSTEMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL TO BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALONG THE WYOMING/MONTANA
BORDER THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH S-SW SFC FLOW OF 10-20KTS
PREVAILING SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
LIFT NE FROM COLORADO ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING IN THE
EVENING...SPREADING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY VCNTY
AND SOUTH OF A KRKS-KCPR LINE...MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE ONE-THIRD OF WYOMING.  THE
OTHER FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR THE MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER THAT SHOULD MAKE A PUSH
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN WYOMING THURSDAY EVENING.  ACTIVITY ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE MAINLY ISOLATED ALSO.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH DAILY MOISTURE PUSHES WILL REMAIN THE PATTERN
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HUMIDITIES ACROSS SOME OF THE CENTRAL
FIRE ZONES MAY DECREASE INTO THE UPPER TEENS...BUT ARE GENERALLY
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. ADDITIONALLY... THOSE
LOCATIONS WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE THE LOWEST HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
EITHER SEE TOO LIGHT OF WIND...OR WILL HAVE SOME HUMIDITY RECOVERY
BEFORE WIND STARTS UP. THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY IS THE
NEXT BIGGEST STORY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...CONDITIONS WILL START TO
COOL WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM



000
FXUS65 KRIW 030907
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
307 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

A FEW SHOWERS MOVING TOWARDS WESTERN WYOMING THIS MORNING. MENTION
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE DURING THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS. A DRIER
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG TODAY AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH. SOME
ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERATING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.COVERAGE LOOKS MOST FAVORABLE OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS....AND REACHING INTO THE JACKSON VALLEY.

AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH ON
FRIDAY...ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. SOME MODEL VARIANCE DEMONSTRATED ON FRIDAY. THE
GFS SHOWS THAT THE PUSH OF MOISTURE MAY BE STRONGER...WITH SHOWERS
COVERING A LOT OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THIS MODEL IS THE
CURRENT OUTLIER IN A SEA OF DRIER MODEL SOLUTIONS. LEFT THE LIMITED
PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR NOW.

WEATHER BECOMES MORE INTERESTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE STATE. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ASIDE FROM COLDER
TEMPERATURES...MODELS INDICATE DECENT STORM COVERAGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER INTO THE STATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...EXPECTING SHOWER COVERAGE TO ALSO INCREASE...WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY EVENING.
THE BEST COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE WEST OF THE DIVIDE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS IT MOVES
THROUGH WYOMING OVER THE WEEKEND...HELPING TO KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY
GENERALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN WYOMING.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA OR NEARLY SO BY 12Z SUNDAY...WITH WINDY TO VERY WINDY
WESTERLY WINDS IN TYPICAL SPOTS SUCH AS THE LEE SIDE OF MOUNTAIN
RANGES AND IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WIND CORRIDORS. MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION BY SUNRISE SUNDAY SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA ACROSS MONTANA...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTHWEST AND POSSIBLY EXTREME NORTH. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY LINGERING PRECIP SUNDAY MORNING TO BE
MAINLY SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. THE WIND
COMBINED WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD
TO ELEVATED AND PERHAPS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF FREMONT...NATRONA AND SWEETWATER COUNTIES.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING ONE OR
TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OF VARYING INTENSITIES/TRACKS DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/PLAINS. THE 00Z GFS SHOWS ONE STRONGER AND SLOWER SYSTEM
WHILE THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A COUPLE WEAKER SYSTEMS. HAVE BROAD
BRUSHED SLIGHT MOUNTAIN POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTH FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE SYSTEMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL TO BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALONG THE WYOMING/MONTANA
BORDER THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH S-SW SFC FLOW OF 10-20KTS
PREVAILING SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
LIFT NE FROM COLORADO ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING IN THE
EVENING...SPREADING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY VCNTY
AND SOUTH OF A KRKS-KCPR LINE...MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE ONE-THIRD OF WYOMING.  THE
OTHER FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR THE MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER THAT SHOULD MAKE A PUSH
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN WYOMING THURSDAY EVENING.  ACTIVITY ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE MAINLY ISOLATED ALSO.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH DAILY MOISTURE PUSHES WILL REMAIN THE PATTERN
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HUMIDITIES ACROSS SOME OF THE CENTRAL
FIRE ZONES MAY DECREASE INTO THE UPPER TEENS...BUT ARE GENERALLY
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. ADDITIONALLY... THOSE
LOCATIONS WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE THE LOWEST HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
EITHER SEE TOO LIGHT OF WIND...OR WILL HAVE SOME HUMIDITY RECOVERY
BEFORE WIND STARTS UP. THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY IS THE
NEXT BIGGEST STORY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...CONDITIONS WILL START TO
COOL WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KUNR 030825
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
225 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
THE NW PAC UPPER TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY ANCHORED. DEEP LAYER SW
COMPRESSIONAL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE REGION
AS DEEP MIXING/CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW NEAR FULL TEMP POTENTIALS
THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK JET STREAK WILL MIGRATE NORTH INTO THE FA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...SUPPORTING INCREASING DEEP LAYER
ASCENT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FAR EAST.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLD SHRA/TS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SCENTRAL INTO CENTRAL SD...AND PERHAPS THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS WHERE SOME WEAK EDDY CONVERGENCE WILL BE IN PLACE. CONSENSUS
CAPE FIELDS SUGGEST 1-1.5 KL/KG ACROSS CENTRAL SD WITH MUCH LESSER
AMOUNT WEST WHERE DRY SW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. WEAK BULK DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED V PROFILES WILL
SUPPORT A GUSTY WIND THREAT WITH ANY TS AND HAVE ADDED THIS
MENTION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING...ESP GIVEN HIRES MODEL
OUTPUT. AS STATED ABOVE...BETTER CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE MAIN MID LEVEL JET STREAK AND LL SFC
TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. A FEW LINGER SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF FRI MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY CONDS
EXPECTED FRI AFTERNOON...SAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER
THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HILLS WITH WEAK INHIBITION AND INCREASED
LL MOISTURE. PAC NW UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AND
SUPPORT AN INCREASING POS THETA-E ADV REGIME FRIDAY NIGHT FROM A
LINGERING MONSOON IMPULSE...WITH POTENTIAL ELEVATED CONVECTION
ARRIVING ACROSS SW AREAS...SPREADING NE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WEAK
SIGNALS REMAIN FOR OVERALL FORCING PATTERN...THUS LIMITED POPS TO
LOW SLIGHTS.

VERY WARM DAY IN STORE TODAY GIVEN LL THERMAL FIELDS /H85 T/S
AROUND 30C/ WITH TRIPLE DIGITS EXPECTED OVER SCENTRAL SD...90S
ELSEWHERE. WEAK/STALLING SFC TROUGH WILL ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDS FRI...ALTHOUGH FAR SW AREAS WILL SEE THE WARMEST CONDS GIVEN
DEEPEST MIXING POTENTIAL. BUMPED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT GIVEN WARM THERMAL FIELDS AND GENERAL SW FLOW...THIS
IS ESP SO IN THE BLACK HILLS FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE NRN ROCKIES SAT AND INTO THE
ERN MT/WRN ND SUN. MODELS CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THE AREA MOSTLY
GETTING DRY SLOTTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS
OVER THE CWA HAVE DECREASED. HAVE REDUCED POPS TO REFLECT THIS
TREND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. DID RAISE TEMPS SAT AS IT LOOKS LIKE
WARMER TEMPS WILL PUSH NWRD INTO THE REGION. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA SUN WITH COOLER TEMPS...SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG...PERSISTING
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. PERIODIC CHANCES OF
PRECIP POSSIBLE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS UPPER WAVES PUSH
THROUGH ZONAL FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR THESE STORMS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13




000
FXUS63 KUNR 030825
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
225 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
THE NW PAC UPPER TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY ANCHORED. DEEP LAYER SW
COMPRESSIONAL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE REGION
AS DEEP MIXING/CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW NEAR FULL TEMP POTENTIALS
THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK JET STREAK WILL MIGRATE NORTH INTO THE FA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...SUPPORTING INCREASING DEEP LAYER
ASCENT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FAR EAST.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLD SHRA/TS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SCENTRAL INTO CENTRAL SD...AND PERHAPS THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS WHERE SOME WEAK EDDY CONVERGENCE WILL BE IN PLACE. CONSENSUS
CAPE FIELDS SUGGEST 1-1.5 KL/KG ACROSS CENTRAL SD WITH MUCH LESSER
AMOUNT WEST WHERE DRY SW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. WEAK BULK DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED V PROFILES WILL
SUPPORT A GUSTY WIND THREAT WITH ANY TS AND HAVE ADDED THIS
MENTION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING...ESP GIVEN HIRES MODEL
OUTPUT. AS STATED ABOVE...BETTER CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE MAIN MID LEVEL JET STREAK AND LL SFC
TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. A FEW LINGER SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF FRI MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY CONDS
EXPECTED FRI AFTERNOON...SAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER
THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HILLS WITH WEAK INHIBITION AND INCREASED
LL MOISTURE. PAC NW UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AND
SUPPORT AN INCREASING POS THETA-E ADV REGIME FRIDAY NIGHT FROM A
LINGERING MONSOON IMPULSE...WITH POTENTIAL ELEVATED CONVECTION
ARRIVING ACROSS SW AREAS...SPREADING NE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WEAK
SIGNALS REMAIN FOR OVERALL FORCING PATTERN...THUS LIMITED POPS TO
LOW SLIGHTS.

VERY WARM DAY IN STORE TODAY GIVEN LL THERMAL FIELDS /H85 T/S
AROUND 30C/ WITH TRIPLE DIGITS EXPECTED OVER SCENTRAL SD...90S
ELSEWHERE. WEAK/STALLING SFC TROUGH WILL ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDS FRI...ALTHOUGH FAR SW AREAS WILL SEE THE WARMEST CONDS GIVEN
DEEPEST MIXING POTENTIAL. BUMPED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT GIVEN WARM THERMAL FIELDS AND GENERAL SW FLOW...THIS
IS ESP SO IN THE BLACK HILLS FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE NRN ROCKIES SAT AND INTO THE
ERN MT/WRN ND SUN. MODELS CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THE AREA MOSTLY
GETTING DRY SLOTTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS
OVER THE CWA HAVE DECREASED. HAVE REDUCED POPS TO REFLECT THIS
TREND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. DID RAISE TEMPS SAT AS IT LOOKS LIKE
WARMER TEMPS WILL PUSH NWRD INTO THE REGION. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA SUN WITH COOLER TEMPS...SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG...PERSISTING
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. PERIODIC CHANCES OF
PRECIP POSSIBLE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS UPPER WAVES PUSH
THROUGH ZONAL FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR THESE STORMS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13



000
FXUS63 KUNR 030825
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
225 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
THE NW PAC UPPER TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY ANCHORED. DEEP LAYER SW
COMPRESSIONAL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE REGION
AS DEEP MIXING/CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW NEAR FULL TEMP POTENTIALS
THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK JET STREAK WILL MIGRATE NORTH INTO THE FA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...SUPPORTING INCREASING DEEP LAYER
ASCENT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FAR EAST.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLD SHRA/TS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SCENTRAL INTO CENTRAL SD...AND PERHAPS THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS WHERE SOME WEAK EDDY CONVERGENCE WILL BE IN PLACE. CONSENSUS
CAPE FIELDS SUGGEST 1-1.5 KL/KG ACROSS CENTRAL SD WITH MUCH LESSER
AMOUNT WEST WHERE DRY SW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. WEAK BULK DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED V PROFILES WILL
SUPPORT A GUSTY WIND THREAT WITH ANY TS AND HAVE ADDED THIS
MENTION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING...ESP GIVEN HIRES MODEL
OUTPUT. AS STATED ABOVE...BETTER CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE MAIN MID LEVEL JET STREAK AND LL SFC
TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. A FEW LINGER SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF FRI MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY CONDS
EXPECTED FRI AFTERNOON...SAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER
THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HILLS WITH WEAK INHIBITION AND INCREASED
LL MOISTURE. PAC NW UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AND
SUPPORT AN INCREASING POS THETA-E ADV REGIME FRIDAY NIGHT FROM A
LINGERING MONSOON IMPULSE...WITH POTENTIAL ELEVATED CONVECTION
ARRIVING ACROSS SW AREAS...SPREADING NE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WEAK
SIGNALS REMAIN FOR OVERALL FORCING PATTERN...THUS LIMITED POPS TO
LOW SLIGHTS.

VERY WARM DAY IN STORE TODAY GIVEN LL THERMAL FIELDS /H85 T/S
AROUND 30C/ WITH TRIPLE DIGITS EXPECTED OVER SCENTRAL SD...90S
ELSEWHERE. WEAK/STALLING SFC TROUGH WILL ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDS FRI...ALTHOUGH FAR SW AREAS WILL SEE THE WARMEST CONDS GIVEN
DEEPEST MIXING POTENTIAL. BUMPED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT GIVEN WARM THERMAL FIELDS AND GENERAL SW FLOW...THIS
IS ESP SO IN THE BLACK HILLS FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE NRN ROCKIES SAT AND INTO THE
ERN MT/WRN ND SUN. MODELS CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THE AREA MOSTLY
GETTING DRY SLOTTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS
OVER THE CWA HAVE DECREASED. HAVE REDUCED POPS TO REFLECT THIS
TREND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. DID RAISE TEMPS SAT AS IT LOOKS LIKE
WARMER TEMPS WILL PUSH NWRD INTO THE REGION. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA SUN WITH COOLER TEMPS...SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG...PERSISTING
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. PERIODIC CHANCES OF
PRECIP POSSIBLE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS UPPER WAVES PUSH
THROUGH ZONAL FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR THESE STORMS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13




000
FXUS63 KUNR 030825
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
225 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
THE NW PAC UPPER TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY ANCHORED. DEEP LAYER SW
COMPRESSIONAL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE REGION
AS DEEP MIXING/CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW NEAR FULL TEMP POTENTIALS
THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK JET STREAK WILL MIGRATE NORTH INTO THE FA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...SUPPORTING INCREASING DEEP LAYER
ASCENT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FAR EAST.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLD SHRA/TS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SCENTRAL INTO CENTRAL SD...AND PERHAPS THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS WHERE SOME WEAK EDDY CONVERGENCE WILL BE IN PLACE. CONSENSUS
CAPE FIELDS SUGGEST 1-1.5 KL/KG ACROSS CENTRAL SD WITH MUCH LESSER
AMOUNT WEST WHERE DRY SW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. WEAK BULK DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED V PROFILES WILL
SUPPORT A GUSTY WIND THREAT WITH ANY TS AND HAVE ADDED THIS
MENTION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING...ESP GIVEN HIRES MODEL
OUTPUT. AS STATED ABOVE...BETTER CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE MAIN MID LEVEL JET STREAK AND LL SFC
TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. A FEW LINGER SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF FRI MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY CONDS
EXPECTED FRI AFTERNOON...SAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER
THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HILLS WITH WEAK INHIBITION AND INCREASED
LL MOISTURE. PAC NW UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AND
SUPPORT AN INCREASING POS THETA-E ADV REGIME FRIDAY NIGHT FROM A
LINGERING MONSOON IMPULSE...WITH POTENTIAL ELEVATED CONVECTION
ARRIVING ACROSS SW AREAS...SPREADING NE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WEAK
SIGNALS REMAIN FOR OVERALL FORCING PATTERN...THUS LIMITED POPS TO
LOW SLIGHTS.

VERY WARM DAY IN STORE TODAY GIVEN LL THERMAL FIELDS /H85 T/S
AROUND 30C/ WITH TRIPLE DIGITS EXPECTED OVER SCENTRAL SD...90S
ELSEWHERE. WEAK/STALLING SFC TROUGH WILL ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDS FRI...ALTHOUGH FAR SW AREAS WILL SEE THE WARMEST CONDS GIVEN
DEEPEST MIXING POTENTIAL. BUMPED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT GIVEN WARM THERMAL FIELDS AND GENERAL SW FLOW...THIS
IS ESP SO IN THE BLACK HILLS FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE NRN ROCKIES SAT AND INTO THE
ERN MT/WRN ND SUN. MODELS CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THE AREA MOSTLY
GETTING DRY SLOTTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS
OVER THE CWA HAVE DECREASED. HAVE REDUCED POPS TO REFLECT THIS
TREND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. DID RAISE TEMPS SAT AS IT LOOKS LIKE
WARMER TEMPS WILL PUSH NWRD INTO THE REGION. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA SUN WITH COOLER TEMPS...SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG...PERSISTING
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. PERIODIC CHANCES OF
PRECIP POSSIBLE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS UPPER WAVES PUSH
THROUGH ZONAL FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR THESE STORMS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13



000
FXUS65 KCYS 030600
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1200 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNINGS EARLY AS LOW LEVEL
HUMIDITIES ARE ON THE INCREASE AND WINDS HAVE BEEN DECREASING OVER
THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE THE LARAMIE RANGE BUT THE
OVERALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THAT WILL CHANGE TOMORROW AS A LATE SEASON PUSH OF MONSOON MOISTURE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
WITH THE MAIN THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY. MODELS DO VARY A BIT IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SHORTWAVE SO TOUGH TO PINPOINT THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL BUT CONFIDENT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
RECEIVE SOME MEASURABLE RAIN. DO NOT SEE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT BASED ON MODEL PROGGED SOUNDINGS BUT THE SOUNDINGS ARE
TROPICAL IN NATURE SUCH THAT HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. FORTUNATELY IT LOOKS LIKE STORM WILL MOVE FAST ENOUGH
SUCH THAT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...ALBEIT
HIGHER THAT CLIMATOLOGY.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS THE
AREA BUT CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN
CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. DO NOT SEE ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS BUT AGAIN A FEW HEAVY RAINERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS WEEKEND
PROGGING THE NORTHWEST CONUS UPPER LOW TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN
THROUGH IDAHO AND MONTANA ON SUNDAY. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND WINDIER
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
PRECEDING A PACIFIC FRONT WILL PRODUCE THE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. THE
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH COOLER...MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS DIGGING A UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE FRONT SOUTH INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE PREFERRED ECMWF
AND ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN A DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 20Z THURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL DECREASE TOMORROW WITH
ONLY MINIMAL CONCERNS THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. SUBTROPICAL
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND POTENTIALLY THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
WILL BE AFFECTED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. THE ONLY POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN THURSDAY IS INTO EAST CENTRAL WYOMING WHERE HUMIDITY
VALUES MAY DIP TO AROUND 15 PERCENT BEFORE THE MONSOON MOISTURE
ARRIVES. FORTUNATELY WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDES IN THE 5
TO 10 MPH RANGE WITH ONLY A FEW GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH INTO WESTERN
CONVERSE COUNTY.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. THE
MODELS DO SHOW A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING STRONGER WINDS AND COOLER AIR TO
THE AREA.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...SML



000
FXUS65 KCYS 030600
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1200 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNINGS EARLY AS LOW LEVEL
HUMIDITIES ARE ON THE INCREASE AND WINDS HAVE BEEN DECREASING OVER
THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE THE LARAMIE RANGE BUT THE
OVERALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THAT WILL CHANGE TOMORROW AS A LATE SEASON PUSH OF MONSOON MOISTURE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
WITH THE MAIN THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY. MODELS DO VARY A BIT IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SHORTWAVE SO TOUGH TO PINPOINT THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL BUT CONFIDENT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
RECEIVE SOME MEASURABLE RAIN. DO NOT SEE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT BASED ON MODEL PROGGED SOUNDINGS BUT THE SOUNDINGS ARE
TROPICAL IN NATURE SUCH THAT HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. FORTUNATELY IT LOOKS LIKE STORM WILL MOVE FAST ENOUGH
SUCH THAT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...ALBEIT
HIGHER THAT CLIMATOLOGY.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS THE
AREA BUT CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN
CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. DO NOT SEE ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS BUT AGAIN A FEW HEAVY RAINERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS WEEKEND
PROGGING THE NORTHWEST CONUS UPPER LOW TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN
THROUGH IDAHO AND MONTANA ON SUNDAY. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND WINDIER
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
PRECEDING A PACIFIC FRONT WILL PRODUCE THE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. THE
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH COOLER...MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS DIGGING A UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE FRONT SOUTH INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE PREFERRED ECMWF
AND ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN A DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 20Z THURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL DECREASE TOMORROW WITH
ONLY MINIMAL CONCERNS THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. SUBTROPICAL
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND POTENTIALLY THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
WILL BE AFFECTED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. THE ONLY POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN THURSDAY IS INTO EAST CENTRAL WYOMING WHERE HUMIDITY
VALUES MAY DIP TO AROUND 15 PERCENT BEFORE THE MONSOON MOISTURE
ARRIVES. FORTUNATELY WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDES IN THE 5
TO 10 MPH RANGE WITH ONLY A FEW GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH INTO WESTERN
CONVERSE COUNTY.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. THE
MODELS DO SHOW A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING STRONGER WINDS AND COOLER AIR TO
THE AREA.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...SML




000
FXUS65 KRIW 030551
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1151 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...ALL RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ON
THURSDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ISOLD -SHRA MAINLY VCNTY AND NW OF A KJAC-
KCOD LINE THROUGH 12Z.

A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALONG THE WYOMING/MONTANA
BORDER THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH S-SW SFC FLOW OF 10-20KTS
PREVAILING SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
LIFT NE FROM COLORADO ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING IN THE
EVENING...SPREADING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY VCNTY
AND SOUTH OF A KRKS-KCPR LINE...MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE ONE-THIRD OF WYOMING.  THE
OTHER FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR THE MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER THAT SHOULD MAKE A PUSH
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN WYOMING THURSDAY EVENING.  ACTIVITY ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE MAINLY ISOLATED ALSO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

WV IMAGERY SHOWING MODEST BROAD RIDGING PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE
CONUS AND WY UNDER SW FLOW...WHILE THE WCST AND PAC NW STATES ARE
THE ONLY AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE FALL-LIKE TROF. MINOR
EMBEDDED SW/JET STREAK ACROSS NERN NV/NRN UT...WITH A STRONGER
EMBEDDED WAVE OVR SRN AZ/SWRN NM. SFC HAS HIGH P TO THE S OVR THE 4
CORNERS AND LOW P TO THE N SPLITTING MT WITH A TROF SAGGING DOWN
INTO CNTRL/SWRN WY.

WARM/VERY DRY TODAY WITH TYPICAL S TO SWRLY SFC WINDS GUSTING 20 TO
30 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN/SERN FA...RAISING FIRE DANGER
CONCERNS OVR CRITICAL FUEL AREAS...MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...
TO THE RED FLAG CATEGORY. THIS DRY AND WINDY STATE...WHILE
DECREASING OVERNIGHT...WILL GENERALLY HANG AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST
PART OF THE DAY THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE...WITH
RFW SET TO EXPIRE THU EVENING. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTION IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A DRY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE
IN PLACE AND LITTLE SFC TO MID LVL FORCING TO OVERCOME THE LID.
TONIGHT...HOWEVER...THE SMALL SW/JET STREAK COMING INTO NRN UT WILL
ARRIVE NEAR/OVR THE WRN FA NEAR MIDNIGHT...DEVELOPING A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY/LOW...AND WEAKENING THE CAP JUST ENOUGH IN THAT AREA TO
ALLOW SOME SHRA/ISOLATED THUNDER ACTIVITY TO BLOSSOM FOR A SHORT
PERIOD BEFORE MOVING OUT BY THU AM.

THEN...AS THURSDAY PROGRESSES...THE NEXT STRONGER UPR WAVE...
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR THE DESERT SW...WILL HEAD INTO SRN WY ALONG
WITH A SMALL BUT DECENT BLOB OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THIS WILL
GREATLY INCREASE MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WEST AND
ESPECIALLY THE SRN AND SERN CWA INTO/THRU THE AFTERNOON
PERIOD...APPEARING TO LOWER THE FIRE DANGER POTENTIAL FOR THIS
AREA...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY STILL OCCASIONALLY GUST OVER 20 MPH AT
TIMES. HARD TO SAY HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT EXACTLY...BUT IT`S
BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE RED FLAG CONDITIONS WEST OF THE DIVIDE MAY
NOT PLAY OUT TOMORROW. THE REGION MOST LIKELY TO SEE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THURSDAY WILL BE ERN FREMONT...NERN SWEETWATER...AND
NATRONA/JOHNSON COUNTIES. WILL SEE WHAT THE NIGHT CREW THINKS ABOUT
TOMORROW`S FIRE WX CHANCES AS THE TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

OTHERWISE...LOW P JUMPS FROM ERN ID AND DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE
ABSAROKAS OVR THE BIG HORN BASIN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND MOISTURE
INFILTRATING SRN/SERN WY. A LINE FROM ROUGHLY FROM EVANSTON TO
KAYCEE AND POINTS EWD WILL BE THE AREA THAT WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCES BY THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD FOR WIDELY SCATTERED/SCATTERED
PRECIP...WITH GUSTY WIND PRODUCERS EARLY BEING REPLACED BY BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN TYPE STORMS. NORTH OF THIS LINE...MORE ISOLATED SHRA/ISO
THUNDER WILL BE THE RULE...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP ACROSS THE WEST
IN THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW WILL CONTINUE PUMPING SOME
MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVER WYOMING FROM THU
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES SEEM
TO BE SLOWLY INCREASING AS MOISTURE FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES GETS
DRAWN UP. FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOK TO HAVE SLIGHT
INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BIGHORNS FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  AS THE CORE OF THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO IDAHO ON SATURDAY...INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE IN
WESTERN WYOMING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.  THE MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW INCREASES AT THIS TIME
TRACKING FROM CENTRAL IDAHO ACROSS YNP AND INTO NE MONTANA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  AT THIS TIME...700MB TEMPS OF -3 TO -4C ARE LIKELY
ACROSS NW WYOMING FROM SUNDAY MIDNIGHT TO NOON...CHANGING THE
OROGRAPHIC RAIN OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE TETONS AND YNP.  AT THIS
TIME...EXPECTING 1-2 INCHES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF YNP BY NOON
SUNDAY...WITH TETON...BEARTOOTH...AND TOGWOTEE PASSES GETTING IN ON
THE ACTION AS WELL. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING LOOKS TO BE FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

WITH THE CLOSED LOW STAYING TO THE NORTH...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
WYOMING WILL BE IN THE WINDY SOUTHERN SECTOR AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS SW WY...AND LOW 40S IN THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN BASINS.  AT THIS TIME ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY.  CLEARING AND WARMING IS
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE GFS WHICH IS
BRINGING ANOTHER WEAKER TROUGH DOWN FROM ALBERTA INTO NW WY BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. APART FROM THIS ANOMALY...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH STEADY AT OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL MAKE ONE FEEL LIKE FALL IS STARTING IN THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES.

AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT MANY TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN AGAIN AFTER 19Z. FROM 03Z TO
12Z...ISOLATED SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WEST AND NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE...LLWS WILL
BECOME AN INCREASING POSSIBILITY AROUND THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS SETTLE IN BY/AFTER 06Z. AT THE MOMENT THE
TWO MOST LIKELY TERMINALS TO SEE THIS WIND SHEAR ARE KBPI AND
KCPR...BOTH ENDING BY 12Z. SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 21Z...WITH VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE NEAR
KRKS...KCPR...AND POSSIBLY KWRL IN THE AFTERNOON.

FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER EXTREME TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE 10 TO NEAR 15 PERCENT FOR MOST
LOW ELEVATIONS...AND WINDS WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST GUSTING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH AT TIMES. TONIGHT...RH
AND WIND VALUES WILL DROP BELOW CRITICAL BEFORE RETURNING TO EXTREME
AGAIN THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BASINS.
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY...WITH BEST AREAS FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AS AN AREA
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. EXTREME FIRE DANGER
CONDITIONS WILL END FROM SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE
DAY. IN GENERAL...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HELPING TO KEEP FIRE DANGER IN
CHECK EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE AT TIMES.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AEM
SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...MCDONALD
AVIATION...BRAUN
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN




000
FXUS65 KRIW 030551
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1151 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...ALL RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ON
THURSDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ISOLD -SHRA MAINLY VCNTY AND NW OF A KJAC-
KCOD LINE THROUGH 12Z.

A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALONG THE WYOMING/MONTANA
BORDER THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH S-SW SFC FLOW OF 10-20KTS
PREVAILING SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
LIFT NE FROM COLORADO ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING IN THE
EVENING...SPREADING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY VCNTY
AND SOUTH OF A KRKS-KCPR LINE...MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE ONE-THIRD OF WYOMING.  THE
OTHER FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR THE MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER THAT SHOULD MAKE A PUSH
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN WYOMING THURSDAY EVENING.  ACTIVITY ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE MAINLY ISOLATED ALSO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

WV IMAGERY SHOWING MODEST BROAD RIDGING PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE
CONUS AND WY UNDER SW FLOW...WHILE THE WCST AND PAC NW STATES ARE
THE ONLY AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE FALL-LIKE TROF. MINOR
EMBEDDED SW/JET STREAK ACROSS NERN NV/NRN UT...WITH A STRONGER
EMBEDDED WAVE OVR SRN AZ/SWRN NM. SFC HAS HIGH P TO THE S OVR THE 4
CORNERS AND LOW P TO THE N SPLITTING MT WITH A TROF SAGGING DOWN
INTO CNTRL/SWRN WY.

WARM/VERY DRY TODAY WITH TYPICAL S TO SWRLY SFC WINDS GUSTING 20 TO
30 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN/SERN FA...RAISING FIRE DANGER
CONCERNS OVR CRITICAL FUEL AREAS...MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...
TO THE RED FLAG CATEGORY. THIS DRY AND WINDY STATE...WHILE
DECREASING OVERNIGHT...WILL GENERALLY HANG AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST
PART OF THE DAY THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE...WITH
RFW SET TO EXPIRE THU EVENING. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTION IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A DRY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE
IN PLACE AND LITTLE SFC TO MID LVL FORCING TO OVERCOME THE LID.
TONIGHT...HOWEVER...THE SMALL SW/JET STREAK COMING INTO NRN UT WILL
ARRIVE NEAR/OVR THE WRN FA NEAR MIDNIGHT...DEVELOPING A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY/LOW...AND WEAKENING THE CAP JUST ENOUGH IN THAT AREA TO
ALLOW SOME SHRA/ISOLATED THUNDER ACTIVITY TO BLOSSOM FOR A SHORT
PERIOD BEFORE MOVING OUT BY THU AM.

THEN...AS THURSDAY PROGRESSES...THE NEXT STRONGER UPR WAVE...
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR THE DESERT SW...WILL HEAD INTO SRN WY ALONG
WITH A SMALL BUT DECENT BLOB OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THIS WILL
GREATLY INCREASE MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WEST AND
ESPECIALLY THE SRN AND SERN CWA INTO/THRU THE AFTERNOON
PERIOD...APPEARING TO LOWER THE FIRE DANGER POTENTIAL FOR THIS
AREA...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY STILL OCCASIONALLY GUST OVER 20 MPH AT
TIMES. HARD TO SAY HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT EXACTLY...BUT IT`S
BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE RED FLAG CONDITIONS WEST OF THE DIVIDE MAY
NOT PLAY OUT TOMORROW. THE REGION MOST LIKELY TO SEE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THURSDAY WILL BE ERN FREMONT...NERN SWEETWATER...AND
NATRONA/JOHNSON COUNTIES. WILL SEE WHAT THE NIGHT CREW THINKS ABOUT
TOMORROW`S FIRE WX CHANCES AS THE TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

OTHERWISE...LOW P JUMPS FROM ERN ID AND DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE
ABSAROKAS OVR THE BIG HORN BASIN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND MOISTURE
INFILTRATING SRN/SERN WY. A LINE FROM ROUGHLY FROM EVANSTON TO
KAYCEE AND POINTS EWD WILL BE THE AREA THAT WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCES BY THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD FOR WIDELY SCATTERED/SCATTERED
PRECIP...WITH GUSTY WIND PRODUCERS EARLY BEING REPLACED BY BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN TYPE STORMS. NORTH OF THIS LINE...MORE ISOLATED SHRA/ISO
THUNDER WILL BE THE RULE...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP ACROSS THE WEST
IN THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW WILL CONTINUE PUMPING SOME
MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVER WYOMING FROM THU
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES SEEM
TO BE SLOWLY INCREASING AS MOISTURE FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES GETS
DRAWN UP. FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOK TO HAVE SLIGHT
INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BIGHORNS FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  AS THE CORE OF THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO IDAHO ON SATURDAY...INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE IN
WESTERN WYOMING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.  THE MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW INCREASES AT THIS TIME
TRACKING FROM CENTRAL IDAHO ACROSS YNP AND INTO NE MONTANA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  AT THIS TIME...700MB TEMPS OF -3 TO -4C ARE LIKELY
ACROSS NW WYOMING FROM SUNDAY MIDNIGHT TO NOON...CHANGING THE
OROGRAPHIC RAIN OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE TETONS AND YNP.  AT THIS
TIME...EXPECTING 1-2 INCHES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF YNP BY NOON
SUNDAY...WITH TETON...BEARTOOTH...AND TOGWOTEE PASSES GETTING IN ON
THE ACTION AS WELL. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING LOOKS TO BE FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

WITH THE CLOSED LOW STAYING TO THE NORTH...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
WYOMING WILL BE IN THE WINDY SOUTHERN SECTOR AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS SW WY...AND LOW 40S IN THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN BASINS.  AT THIS TIME ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY.  CLEARING AND WARMING IS
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE GFS WHICH IS
BRINGING ANOTHER WEAKER TROUGH DOWN FROM ALBERTA INTO NW WY BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. APART FROM THIS ANOMALY...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH STEADY AT OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL MAKE ONE FEEL LIKE FALL IS STARTING IN THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES.

AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT MANY TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN AGAIN AFTER 19Z. FROM 03Z TO
12Z...ISOLATED SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WEST AND NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE...LLWS WILL
BECOME AN INCREASING POSSIBILITY AROUND THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS SETTLE IN BY/AFTER 06Z. AT THE MOMENT THE
TWO MOST LIKELY TERMINALS TO SEE THIS WIND SHEAR ARE KBPI AND
KCPR...BOTH ENDING BY 12Z. SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 21Z...WITH VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE NEAR
KRKS...KCPR...AND POSSIBLY KWRL IN THE AFTERNOON.

FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER EXTREME TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE 10 TO NEAR 15 PERCENT FOR MOST
LOW ELEVATIONS...AND WINDS WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST GUSTING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH AT TIMES. TONIGHT...RH
AND WIND VALUES WILL DROP BELOW CRITICAL BEFORE RETURNING TO EXTREME
AGAIN THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BASINS.
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY...WITH BEST AREAS FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AS AN AREA
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. EXTREME FIRE DANGER
CONDITIONS WILL END FROM SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE
DAY. IN GENERAL...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HELPING TO KEEP FIRE DANGER IN
CHECK EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE AT TIMES.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AEM
SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...MCDONALD
AVIATION...BRAUN
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN



000
FXUS63 KUNR 030549
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1149 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 808 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE ENDING ACROSS PARTS OF NERN WY AS TEMPS
FALL AND RH`S RISE. THUS...HAVE ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO
EXPIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. UPPER FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IS WESTERLY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE. AT
THE SURFACE...WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WINDS
ARE GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...AND TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM ARE
IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS LARGE UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROF SLOWLY DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
WEAK SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WITH
WEAK SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW CONTINUING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING...TO THE 60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

THURSDAY...RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AS THE TROF
DEEPENS IN THE WEST. SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
CONTINUES...ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HOT TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 90S WITH A FEW SPOTS CLOSE TO 100
DEGREES. LATE IN THE DAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
WESTERN TROF AND CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY MID
EVENING...AND PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD...MAINLY IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW AND THE SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF IT...ALLOWING
FOR A LITTLE BETTER DEFINITION IN POPS. THURSDAY NIGHT`S SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR -TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL SD THEN. NEXT
WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING AND BRINGS MORE
CHANCES OF PRECIP TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. UPPER LOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT THAT 700MB LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
MT...PUSHING MUCH OF THE PRECIP NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA.
THEREFORE LABOR DAY WEEKEND IS CURRENTLY LOOKING A LITTLE DRIER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY...WITH A
GRADUAL COOLDOWN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...JOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 030549
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1149 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 808 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE ENDING ACROSS PARTS OF NERN WY AS TEMPS
FALL AND RH`S RISE. THUS...HAVE ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO
EXPIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. UPPER FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IS WESTERLY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE. AT
THE SURFACE...WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WINDS
ARE GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...AND TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM ARE
IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS LARGE UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROF SLOWLY DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
WEAK SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WITH
WEAK SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW CONTINUING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING...TO THE 60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

THURSDAY...RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AS THE TROF
DEEPENS IN THE WEST. SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
CONTINUES...ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HOT TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 90S WITH A FEW SPOTS CLOSE TO 100
DEGREES. LATE IN THE DAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
WESTERN TROF AND CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY MID
EVENING...AND PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD...MAINLY IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW AND THE SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF IT...ALLOWING
FOR A LITTLE BETTER DEFINITION IN POPS. THURSDAY NIGHT`S SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR -TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL SD THEN. NEXT
WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING AND BRINGS MORE
CHANCES OF PRECIP TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. UPPER LOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT THAT 700MB LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
MT...PUSHING MUCH OF THE PRECIP NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA.
THEREFORE LABOR DAY WEEKEND IS CURRENTLY LOOKING A LITTLE DRIER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY...WITH A
GRADUAL COOLDOWN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...JOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 030549
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1149 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 808 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE ENDING ACROSS PARTS OF NERN WY AS TEMPS
FALL AND RH`S RISE. THUS...HAVE ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO
EXPIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. UPPER FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IS WESTERLY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE. AT
THE SURFACE...WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WINDS
ARE GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...AND TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM ARE
IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS LARGE UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROF SLOWLY DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
WEAK SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WITH
WEAK SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW CONTINUING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING...TO THE 60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

THURSDAY...RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AS THE TROF
DEEPENS IN THE WEST. SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
CONTINUES...ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HOT TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 90S WITH A FEW SPOTS CLOSE TO 100
DEGREES. LATE IN THE DAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
WESTERN TROF AND CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY MID
EVENING...AND PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD...MAINLY IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW AND THE SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF IT...ALLOWING
FOR A LITTLE BETTER DEFINITION IN POPS. THURSDAY NIGHT`S SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR -TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL SD THEN. NEXT
WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING AND BRINGS MORE
CHANCES OF PRECIP TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. UPPER LOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT THAT 700MB LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
MT...PUSHING MUCH OF THE PRECIP NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA.
THEREFORE LABOR DAY WEEKEND IS CURRENTLY LOOKING A LITTLE DRIER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY...WITH A
GRADUAL COOLDOWN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...JOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 030549
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1149 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 808 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE ENDING ACROSS PARTS OF NERN WY AS TEMPS
FALL AND RH`S RISE. THUS...HAVE ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO
EXPIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. UPPER FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IS WESTERLY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE. AT
THE SURFACE...WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WINDS
ARE GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...AND TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM ARE
IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS LARGE UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROF SLOWLY DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
WEAK SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WITH
WEAK SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW CONTINUING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING...TO THE 60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

THURSDAY...RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AS THE TROF
DEEPENS IN THE WEST. SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
CONTINUES...ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HOT TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 90S WITH A FEW SPOTS CLOSE TO 100
DEGREES. LATE IN THE DAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
WESTERN TROF AND CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY MID
EVENING...AND PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD...MAINLY IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW AND THE SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF IT...ALLOWING
FOR A LITTLE BETTER DEFINITION IN POPS. THURSDAY NIGHT`S SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR -TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL SD THEN. NEXT
WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING AND BRINGS MORE
CHANCES OF PRECIP TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. UPPER LOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT THAT 700MB LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
MT...PUSHING MUCH OF THE PRECIP NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA.
THEREFORE LABOR DAY WEEKEND IS CURRENTLY LOOKING A LITTLE DRIER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY...WITH A
GRADUAL COOLDOWN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...JOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 030212
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
812 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 808 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE ENDING ACROSS PARTS OF NERN WY AS TEMPS
FALL AND RH`S RISE. THUS...HAVE ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO
EXPIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. UPPER FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IS WESTERLY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE. AT
THE SURFACE...WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WINDS
ARE GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...AND TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM ARE
IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS LARGE UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROF SLOWLY DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
WEAK SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WITH
WEAK SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW CONTINUING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING...TO THE 60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

THURSDAY...RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AS THE TROF
DEEPENS IN THE WEST. SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
CONTINUES...ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HOT TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 90S WITH A FEW SPOTS CLOSE TO 100
DEGREES. LATE IN THE DAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
WESTERN TROF AND CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY MID
EVENING...AND PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD...MAINLY IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW AND THE SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF IT...ALLOWING
FOR A LITTLE BETTER DEFINITION IN POPS. THURSDAY NIGHT`S SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR -TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL SD THEN. NEXT
WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING AND BRINGS MORE
CHANCES OF PRECIP TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. UPPER LOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT THAT 700MB LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
MT...PUSHING MUCH OF THE PRECIP NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA.
THEREFORE LABOR DAY WEEKEND IS CURRENTLY LOOKING A LITTLE DRIER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY...WITH A
GRADUAL COOLDOWN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE
FIRE WEATHER...JOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 030212
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
812 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 808 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE ENDING ACROSS PARTS OF NERN WY AS TEMPS
FALL AND RH`S RISE. THUS...HAVE ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO
EXPIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. UPPER FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IS WESTERLY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE. AT
THE SURFACE...WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WINDS
ARE GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...AND TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM ARE
IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS LARGE UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROF SLOWLY DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
WEAK SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WITH
WEAK SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW CONTINUING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING...TO THE 60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

THURSDAY...RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AS THE TROF
DEEPENS IN THE WEST. SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
CONTINUES...ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HOT TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 90S WITH A FEW SPOTS CLOSE TO 100
DEGREES. LATE IN THE DAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
WESTERN TROF AND CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY MID
EVENING...AND PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD...MAINLY IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW AND THE SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF IT...ALLOWING
FOR A LITTLE BETTER DEFINITION IN POPS. THURSDAY NIGHT`S SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR -TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL SD THEN. NEXT
WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING AND BRINGS MORE
CHANCES OF PRECIP TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. UPPER LOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT THAT 700MB LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
MT...PUSHING MUCH OF THE PRECIP NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA.
THEREFORE LABOR DAY WEEKEND IS CURRENTLY LOOKING A LITTLE DRIER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY...WITH A
GRADUAL COOLDOWN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE
FIRE WEATHER...JOHNSON



000
FXUS65 KCYS 022355
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
555 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNINGS EARLY AS LOW LEVEL
HUMIDITIES ARE ON THE INCREASE AND WINDS HAVE BEEN DECREASING OVER
THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE THE LARAMIE RANGE BUT THE
OVERALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THAT WILL CHANGE TOMORROW AS A LATE SEASON PUSH OF MONSOON MOISTURE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
WITH THE MAIN THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY. MODELS DO VARY A BIT IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SHORTWAVE SO TOUGH TO PINPOINT THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL BUT CONFIDENT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
RECEIVE SOME MEASURABLE RAIN. DO NOT SEE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT BASED ON MODEL PROGGED SOUNDINGS BUT THE SOUNDINGS ARE
TROPICAL IN NATURE SUCH THAT HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. FORTUNATELY IT LOOKS LIKE STORM WILL MOVE FAST ENOUGH
SUCH THAT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...ALBEIT
HIGHER THAT CLIMATOLOGY.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS THE
AREA BUT CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN
CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. DO NOT SEE ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS BUT AGAIN A FEW HEAVY RAINERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS WEEKEND
PROGGING THE NORTHWEST CONUS UPPER LOW TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN
THROUGH IDAHO AND MONTANA ON SUNDAY. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND WINDIER
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
PRECEDING A PACIFIC FRONT WILL PRODUCE THE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. THE
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH COOLER...MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS DIGGING A UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE FRONT SOUTH INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE PREFERRED ECMWF
AND ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN A DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 442 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH WINDS EASING NEAR SUNSET. GOING
TO SEE AN INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE THURSDAY THAT WILL BRING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. TIMING LOOKS TO BE AFTER 20Z-21Z FOR KRWL AND
KLAR. MAYBE A LITTLE LATER FOR AIRPORTS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
WILL TRY TO NAIL DOWN TIMING A LITTLE BETTER ON UPCOMING TAF
ISSUANCES.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL DECREASE TOMORROW WITH
ONLY MINIMAL CONCERNS THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. SUBTROPICAL
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND POTENTIALLY THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
WILL BE AFFECTED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. THE ONLY POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN THURSDAY IS INTO EAST CENTRAL WYOMING WHERE HUMIDITY
VALUES MAY DIP TO AROUND 15 PERCENT BEFORE THE MONSOON MOISTURE
ARRIVES. FORTUNATELY WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDES IN THE 5
TO 10 MPH RANGE WITH ONLY A FEW GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH INTO WESTERN
CONVERSE COUNTY.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. THE
MODELS DO SHOW A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING STRONGER WINDS AND COOLER AIR TO
THE AREA.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...SML



000
FXUS65 KCYS 022355
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
555 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNINGS EARLY AS LOW LEVEL
HUMIDITIES ARE ON THE INCREASE AND WINDS HAVE BEEN DECREASING OVER
THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE THE LARAMIE RANGE BUT THE
OVERALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THAT WILL CHANGE TOMORROW AS A LATE SEASON PUSH OF MONSOON MOISTURE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
WITH THE MAIN THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY. MODELS DO VARY A BIT IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SHORTWAVE SO TOUGH TO PINPOINT THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL BUT CONFIDENT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
RECEIVE SOME MEASURABLE RAIN. DO NOT SEE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT BASED ON MODEL PROGGED SOUNDINGS BUT THE SOUNDINGS ARE
TROPICAL IN NATURE SUCH THAT HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. FORTUNATELY IT LOOKS LIKE STORM WILL MOVE FAST ENOUGH
SUCH THAT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...ALBEIT
HIGHER THAT CLIMATOLOGY.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS THE
AREA BUT CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN
CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. DO NOT SEE ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS BUT AGAIN A FEW HEAVY RAINERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS WEEKEND
PROGGING THE NORTHWEST CONUS UPPER LOW TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN
THROUGH IDAHO AND MONTANA ON SUNDAY. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND WINDIER
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
PRECEDING A PACIFIC FRONT WILL PRODUCE THE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. THE
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH COOLER...MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS DIGGING A UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE FRONT SOUTH INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE PREFERRED ECMWF
AND ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN A DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 442 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH WINDS EASING NEAR SUNSET. GOING
TO SEE AN INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE THURSDAY THAT WILL BRING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. TIMING LOOKS TO BE AFTER 20Z-21Z FOR KRWL AND
KLAR. MAYBE A LITTLE LATER FOR AIRPORTS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
WILL TRY TO NAIL DOWN TIMING A LITTLE BETTER ON UPCOMING TAF
ISSUANCES.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL DECREASE TOMORROW WITH
ONLY MINIMAL CONCERNS THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. SUBTROPICAL
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND POTENTIALLY THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
WILL BE AFFECTED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. THE ONLY POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN THURSDAY IS INTO EAST CENTRAL WYOMING WHERE HUMIDITY
VALUES MAY DIP TO AROUND 15 PERCENT BEFORE THE MONSOON MOISTURE
ARRIVES. FORTUNATELY WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDES IN THE 5
TO 10 MPH RANGE WITH ONLY A FEW GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH INTO WESTERN
CONVERSE COUNTY.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. THE
MODELS DO SHOW A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING STRONGER WINDS AND COOLER AIR TO
THE AREA.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...SML



000
FXUS65 KCYS 022355
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
555 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNINGS EARLY AS LOW LEVEL
HUMIDITIES ARE ON THE INCREASE AND WINDS HAVE BEEN DECREASING OVER
THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE THE LARAMIE RANGE BUT THE
OVERALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THAT WILL CHANGE TOMORROW AS A LATE SEASON PUSH OF MONSOON MOISTURE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
WITH THE MAIN THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY. MODELS DO VARY A BIT IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SHORTWAVE SO TOUGH TO PINPOINT THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL BUT CONFIDENT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
RECEIVE SOME MEASURABLE RAIN. DO NOT SEE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT BASED ON MODEL PROGGED SOUNDINGS BUT THE SOUNDINGS ARE
TROPICAL IN NATURE SUCH THAT HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. FORTUNATELY IT LOOKS LIKE STORM WILL MOVE FAST ENOUGH
SUCH THAT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...ALBEIT
HIGHER THAT CLIMATOLOGY.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS THE
AREA BUT CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN
CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. DO NOT SEE ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS BUT AGAIN A FEW HEAVY RAINERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS WEEKEND
PROGGING THE NORTHWEST CONUS UPPER LOW TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN
THROUGH IDAHO AND MONTANA ON SUNDAY. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND WINDIER
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
PRECEDING A PACIFIC FRONT WILL PRODUCE THE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. THE
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH COOLER...MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS DIGGING A UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE FRONT SOUTH INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE PREFERRED ECMWF
AND ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN A DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 442 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH WINDS EASING NEAR SUNSET. GOING
TO SEE AN INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE THURSDAY THAT WILL BRING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. TIMING LOOKS TO BE AFTER 20Z-21Z FOR KRWL AND
KLAR. MAYBE A LITTLE LATER FOR AIRPORTS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
WILL TRY TO NAIL DOWN TIMING A LITTLE BETTER ON UPCOMING TAF
ISSUANCES.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL DECREASE TOMORROW WITH
ONLY MINIMAL CONCERNS THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. SUBTROPICAL
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND POTENTIALLY THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
WILL BE AFFECTED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. THE ONLY POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN THURSDAY IS INTO EAST CENTRAL WYOMING WHERE HUMIDITY
VALUES MAY DIP TO AROUND 15 PERCENT BEFORE THE MONSOON MOISTURE
ARRIVES. FORTUNATELY WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDES IN THE 5
TO 10 MPH RANGE WITH ONLY A FEW GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH INTO WESTERN
CONVERSE COUNTY.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. THE
MODELS DO SHOW A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING STRONGER WINDS AND COOLER AIR TO
THE AREA.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...SML



000
FXUS65 KCYS 022355
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
555 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNINGS EARLY AS LOW LEVEL
HUMIDITIES ARE ON THE INCREASE AND WINDS HAVE BEEN DECREASING OVER
THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE THE LARAMIE RANGE BUT THE
OVERALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THAT WILL CHANGE TOMORROW AS A LATE SEASON PUSH OF MONSOON MOISTURE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
WITH THE MAIN THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY. MODELS DO VARY A BIT IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SHORTWAVE SO TOUGH TO PINPOINT THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL BUT CONFIDENT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
RECEIVE SOME MEASURABLE RAIN. DO NOT SEE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT BASED ON MODEL PROGGED SOUNDINGS BUT THE SOUNDINGS ARE
TROPICAL IN NATURE SUCH THAT HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. FORTUNATELY IT LOOKS LIKE STORM WILL MOVE FAST ENOUGH
SUCH THAT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...ALBEIT
HIGHER THAT CLIMATOLOGY.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS THE
AREA BUT CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN
CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. DO NOT SEE ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS BUT AGAIN A FEW HEAVY RAINERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS WEEKEND
PROGGING THE NORTHWEST CONUS UPPER LOW TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN
THROUGH IDAHO AND MONTANA ON SUNDAY. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND WINDIER
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
PRECEDING A PACIFIC FRONT WILL PRODUCE THE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. THE
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH COOLER...MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS DIGGING A UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE FRONT SOUTH INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE PREFERRED ECMWF
AND ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN A DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 442 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH WINDS EASING NEAR SUNSET. GOING
TO SEE AN INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE THURSDAY THAT WILL BRING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. TIMING LOOKS TO BE AFTER 20Z-21Z FOR KRWL AND
KLAR. MAYBE A LITTLE LATER FOR AIRPORTS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
WILL TRY TO NAIL DOWN TIMING A LITTLE BETTER ON UPCOMING TAF
ISSUANCES.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL DECREASE TOMORROW WITH
ONLY MINIMAL CONCERNS THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. SUBTROPICAL
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND POTENTIALLY THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
WILL BE AFFECTED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. THE ONLY POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN THURSDAY IS INTO EAST CENTRAL WYOMING WHERE HUMIDITY
VALUES MAY DIP TO AROUND 15 PERCENT BEFORE THE MONSOON MOISTURE
ARRIVES. FORTUNATELY WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDES IN THE 5
TO 10 MPH RANGE WITH ONLY A FEW GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH INTO WESTERN
CONVERSE COUNTY.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. THE
MODELS DO SHOW A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING STRONGER WINDS AND COOLER AIR TO
THE AREA.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...SML



000
FXUS65 KCYS 022355
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
555 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNINGS EARLY AS LOW LEVEL
HUMIDITIES ARE ON THE INCREASE AND WINDS HAVE BEEN DECREASING OVER
THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE THE LARAMIE RANGE BUT THE
OVERALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THAT WILL CHANGE TOMORROW AS A LATE SEASON PUSH OF MONSOON MOISTURE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
WITH THE MAIN THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY. MODELS DO VARY A BIT IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SHORTWAVE SO TOUGH TO PINPOINT THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL BUT CONFIDENT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
RECEIVE SOME MEASURABLE RAIN. DO NOT SEE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT BASED ON MODEL PROGGED SOUNDINGS BUT THE SOUNDINGS ARE
TROPICAL IN NATURE SUCH THAT HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. FORTUNATELY IT LOOKS LIKE STORM WILL MOVE FAST ENOUGH
SUCH THAT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...ALBEIT
HIGHER THAT CLIMATOLOGY.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS THE
AREA BUT CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN
CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. DO NOT SEE ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS BUT AGAIN A FEW HEAVY RAINERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS WEEKEND
PROGGING THE NORTHWEST CONUS UPPER LOW TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN
THROUGH IDAHO AND MONTANA ON SUNDAY. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND WINDIER
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
PRECEDING A PACIFIC FRONT WILL PRODUCE THE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. THE
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH COOLER...MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS DIGGING A UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE FRONT SOUTH INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE PREFERRED ECMWF
AND ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN A DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 442 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH WINDS EASING NEAR SUNSET. GOING
TO SEE AN INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE THURSDAY THAT WILL BRING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. TIMING LOOKS TO BE AFTER 20Z-21Z FOR KRWL AND
KLAR. MAYBE A LITTLE LATER FOR AIRPORTS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
WILL TRY TO NAIL DOWN TIMING A LITTLE BETTER ON UPCOMING TAF
ISSUANCES.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL DECREASE TOMORROW WITH
ONLY MINIMAL CONCERNS THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. SUBTROPICAL
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND POTENTIALLY THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
WILL BE AFFECTED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. THE ONLY POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN THURSDAY IS INTO EAST CENTRAL WYOMING WHERE HUMIDITY
VALUES MAY DIP TO AROUND 15 PERCENT BEFORE THE MONSOON MOISTURE
ARRIVES. FORTUNATELY WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDES IN THE 5
TO 10 MPH RANGE WITH ONLY A FEW GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH INTO WESTERN
CONVERSE COUNTY.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. THE
MODELS DO SHOW A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING STRONGER WINDS AND COOLER AIR TO
THE AREA.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...SML



000
FXUS65 KCYS 022355
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
555 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNINGS EARLY AS LOW LEVEL
HUMIDITIES ARE ON THE INCREASE AND WINDS HAVE BEEN DECREASING OVER
THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE THE LARAMIE RANGE BUT THE
OVERALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THAT WILL CHANGE TOMORROW AS A LATE SEASON PUSH OF MONSOON MOISTURE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
WITH THE MAIN THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY. MODELS DO VARY A BIT IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SHORTWAVE SO TOUGH TO PINPOINT THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL BUT CONFIDENT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
RECEIVE SOME MEASURABLE RAIN. DO NOT SEE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT BASED ON MODEL PROGGED SOUNDINGS BUT THE SOUNDINGS ARE
TROPICAL IN NATURE SUCH THAT HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. FORTUNATELY IT LOOKS LIKE STORM WILL MOVE FAST ENOUGH
SUCH THAT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...ALBEIT
HIGHER THAT CLIMATOLOGY.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS THE
AREA BUT CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN
CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. DO NOT SEE ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS BUT AGAIN A FEW HEAVY RAINERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS WEEKEND
PROGGING THE NORTHWEST CONUS UPPER LOW TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN
THROUGH IDAHO AND MONTANA ON SUNDAY. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND WINDIER
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
PRECEDING A PACIFIC FRONT WILL PRODUCE THE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. THE
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH COOLER...MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS DIGGING A UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE FRONT SOUTH INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE PREFERRED ECMWF
AND ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN A DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 442 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH WINDS EASING NEAR SUNSET. GOING
TO SEE AN INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE THURSDAY THAT WILL BRING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. TIMING LOOKS TO BE AFTER 20Z-21Z FOR KRWL AND
KLAR. MAYBE A LITTLE LATER FOR AIRPORTS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
WILL TRY TO NAIL DOWN TIMING A LITTLE BETTER ON UPCOMING TAF
ISSUANCES.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL DECREASE TOMORROW WITH
ONLY MINIMAL CONCERNS THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. SUBTROPICAL
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND POTENTIALLY THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
WILL BE AFFECTED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. THE ONLY POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN THURSDAY IS INTO EAST CENTRAL WYOMING WHERE HUMIDITY
VALUES MAY DIP TO AROUND 15 PERCENT BEFORE THE MONSOON MOISTURE
ARRIVES. FORTUNATELY WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDES IN THE 5
TO 10 MPH RANGE WITH ONLY A FEW GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH INTO WESTERN
CONVERSE COUNTY.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. THE
MODELS DO SHOW A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING STRONGER WINDS AND COOLER AIR TO
THE AREA.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...SML



000
FXUS65 KCYS 022355
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
555 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNINGS EARLY AS LOW LEVEL
HUMIDITIES ARE ON THE INCREASE AND WINDS HAVE BEEN DECREASING OVER
THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE THE LARAMIE RANGE BUT THE
OVERALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THAT WILL CHANGE TOMORROW AS A LATE SEASON PUSH OF MONSOON MOISTURE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
WITH THE MAIN THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY. MODELS DO VARY A BIT IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SHORTWAVE SO TOUGH TO PINPOINT THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL BUT CONFIDENT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
RECEIVE SOME MEASURABLE RAIN. DO NOT SEE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT BASED ON MODEL PROGGED SOUNDINGS BUT THE SOUNDINGS ARE
TROPICAL IN NATURE SUCH THAT HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. FORTUNATELY IT LOOKS LIKE STORM WILL MOVE FAST ENOUGH
SUCH THAT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...ALBEIT
HIGHER THAT CLIMATOLOGY.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS THE
AREA BUT CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN
CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. DO NOT SEE ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS BUT AGAIN A FEW HEAVY RAINERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS WEEKEND
PROGGING THE NORTHWEST CONUS UPPER LOW TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN
THROUGH IDAHO AND MONTANA ON SUNDAY. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND WINDIER
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
PRECEDING A PACIFIC FRONT WILL PRODUCE THE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. THE
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH COOLER...MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS DIGGING A UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE FRONT SOUTH INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE PREFERRED ECMWF
AND ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN A DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 442 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH WINDS EASING NEAR SUNSET. GOING
TO SEE AN INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE THURSDAY THAT WILL BRING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. TIMING LOOKS TO BE AFTER 20Z-21Z FOR KRWL AND
KLAR. MAYBE A LITTLE LATER FOR AIRPORTS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
WILL TRY TO NAIL DOWN TIMING A LITTLE BETTER ON UPCOMING TAF
ISSUANCES.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL DECREASE TOMORROW WITH
ONLY MINIMAL CONCERNS THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. SUBTROPICAL
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND POTENTIALLY THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
WILL BE AFFECTED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. THE ONLY POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN THURSDAY IS INTO EAST CENTRAL WYOMING WHERE HUMIDITY
VALUES MAY DIP TO AROUND 15 PERCENT BEFORE THE MONSOON MOISTURE
ARRIVES. FORTUNATELY WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDES IN THE 5
TO 10 MPH RANGE WITH ONLY A FEW GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH INTO WESTERN
CONVERSE COUNTY.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. THE
MODELS DO SHOW A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING STRONGER WINDS AND COOLER AIR TO
THE AREA.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...SML



000
FXUS65 KCYS 022355
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
555 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNINGS EARLY AS LOW LEVEL
HUMIDITIES ARE ON THE INCREASE AND WINDS HAVE BEEN DECREASING OVER
THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE THE LARAMIE RANGE BUT THE
OVERALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THAT WILL CHANGE TOMORROW AS A LATE SEASON PUSH OF MONSOON MOISTURE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
WITH THE MAIN THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY. MODELS DO VARY A BIT IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SHORTWAVE SO TOUGH TO PINPOINT THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL BUT CONFIDENT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
RECEIVE SOME MEASURABLE RAIN. DO NOT SEE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT BASED ON MODEL PROGGED SOUNDINGS BUT THE SOUNDINGS ARE
TROPICAL IN NATURE SUCH THAT HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. FORTUNATELY IT LOOKS LIKE STORM WILL MOVE FAST ENOUGH
SUCH THAT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...ALBEIT
HIGHER THAT CLIMATOLOGY.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS THE
AREA BUT CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN
CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. DO NOT SEE ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS BUT AGAIN A FEW HEAVY RAINERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS WEEKEND
PROGGING THE NORTHWEST CONUS UPPER LOW TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN
THROUGH IDAHO AND MONTANA ON SUNDAY. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND WINDIER
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
PRECEDING A PACIFIC FRONT WILL PRODUCE THE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. THE
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH COOLER...MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS DIGGING A UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE FRONT SOUTH INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE PREFERRED ECMWF
AND ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN A DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 442 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH WINDS EASING NEAR SUNSET. GOING
TO SEE AN INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE THURSDAY THAT WILL BRING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. TIMING LOOKS TO BE AFTER 20Z-21Z FOR KRWL AND
KLAR. MAYBE A LITTLE LATER FOR AIRPORTS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
WILL TRY TO NAIL DOWN TIMING A LITTLE BETTER ON UPCOMING TAF
ISSUANCES.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL DECREASE TOMORROW WITH
ONLY MINIMAL CONCERNS THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. SUBTROPICAL
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND POTENTIALLY THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
WILL BE AFFECTED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. THE ONLY POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN THURSDAY IS INTO EAST CENTRAL WYOMING WHERE HUMIDITY
VALUES MAY DIP TO AROUND 15 PERCENT BEFORE THE MONSOON MOISTURE
ARRIVES. FORTUNATELY WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDES IN THE 5
TO 10 MPH RANGE WITH ONLY A FEW GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH INTO WESTERN
CONVERSE COUNTY.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. THE
MODELS DO SHOW A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING STRONGER WINDS AND COOLER AIR TO
THE AREA.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...SML



000
FXUS65 KCYS 022245
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
445 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE THE LARAMIE RANGE BUT THE
OVERALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THAT WILL CHANGE TOMORROW AS A LATE SEASON PUSH OF MONSOON MOISTURE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
WITH THE MAIN THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY. MODELS DO VARY A BIT IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SHORTWAVE SO TOUGH TO PINPOINT THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL BUT CONFIDENT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
RECEIVE SOME MEASURABLE RAIN. DO NOT SEE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT BASED ON MODEL PROGGED SOUNDINGS BUT THE SOUNDINGS ARE
TROPICAL IN NATURE SUCH THAT HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. FORTUNATELY IT LOOKS LIKE STORM WILL MOVE FAST ENOUGH
SUCH THAT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...ALBEIT
HIGHER THAT CLIMATOLOGY.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS THE
AREA BUT CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN
CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. DO NOT SEE ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS BUT AGAIN A FEW HEAVY RAINERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS WEEKEND
PROGGING THE NORTHWEST CONUS UPPER LOW TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN
THROUGH IDAHO AND MONTANA ON SUNDAY. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND WINDIER
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
PRECEDING A PACIFIC FRONT WILL PRODUCE THE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. THE
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH COOLER...MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS DIGGING A UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE FRONT SOUTH INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE PREFERRED ECMWF
AND ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN A DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 442 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH WINDS EASING NEAR SUNSET. GOING
TO SEE AN INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE THURSDAY THAT WILL BRING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. TIMING LOOKS TO BE AFTER 20Z-21Z FOR KRWL AND
KLAR. MAYBE A LITTLE LATER FOR AIRPORTS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
WILL TRY TO NAIL DOWN TIMING A LITTLE BETTER ON UPCOMING TAF
ISSUANCES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL DECREASE TOMORROW WITH
ONLY MINIMAL CONCERNS THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. SUBTROPICAL
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND POTENTIALLY THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
WILL BE AFFECTED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. THE ONLY POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN THURSDAY IS INTO EAST CENTRAL WYOMING WHERE HUMIDITY
VALUES MAY DIP TO AROUND 15 PERCENT BEFORE THE MONSOON MOISTURE
ARRIVES. FORTUNATELY WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDES IN THE 5
TO 10 MPH RANGE WITH ONLY A FEW GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH INTO WESTERN
CONVERSE COUNTY.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. THE
MODELS DO SHOW A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING STRONGER WINDS AND COOLER AIR TO
THE AREA.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301>304-306-
     308.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...SML




000
FXUS65 KCYS 022245
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
445 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE THE LARAMIE RANGE BUT THE
OVERALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THAT WILL CHANGE TOMORROW AS A LATE SEASON PUSH OF MONSOON MOISTURE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
WITH THE MAIN THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY. MODELS DO VARY A BIT IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SHORTWAVE SO TOUGH TO PINPOINT THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL BUT CONFIDENT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
RECEIVE SOME MEASURABLE RAIN. DO NOT SEE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT BASED ON MODEL PROGGED SOUNDINGS BUT THE SOUNDINGS ARE
TROPICAL IN NATURE SUCH THAT HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. FORTUNATELY IT LOOKS LIKE STORM WILL MOVE FAST ENOUGH
SUCH THAT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...ALBEIT
HIGHER THAT CLIMATOLOGY.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS THE
AREA BUT CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN
CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. DO NOT SEE ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS BUT AGAIN A FEW HEAVY RAINERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS WEEKEND
PROGGING THE NORTHWEST CONUS UPPER LOW TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN
THROUGH IDAHO AND MONTANA ON SUNDAY. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND WINDIER
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
PRECEDING A PACIFIC FRONT WILL PRODUCE THE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. THE
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH COOLER...MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS DIGGING A UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE FRONT SOUTH INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE PREFERRED ECMWF
AND ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN A DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 442 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH WINDS EASING NEAR SUNSET. GOING
TO SEE AN INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE THURSDAY THAT WILL BRING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. TIMING LOOKS TO BE AFTER 20Z-21Z FOR KRWL AND
KLAR. MAYBE A LITTLE LATER FOR AIRPORTS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
WILL TRY TO NAIL DOWN TIMING A LITTLE BETTER ON UPCOMING TAF
ISSUANCES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL DECREASE TOMORROW WITH
ONLY MINIMAL CONCERNS THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. SUBTROPICAL
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND POTENTIALLY THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
WILL BE AFFECTED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. THE ONLY POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN THURSDAY IS INTO EAST CENTRAL WYOMING WHERE HUMIDITY
VALUES MAY DIP TO AROUND 15 PERCENT BEFORE THE MONSOON MOISTURE
ARRIVES. FORTUNATELY WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDES IN THE 5
TO 10 MPH RANGE WITH ONLY A FEW GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH INTO WESTERN
CONVERSE COUNTY.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. THE
MODELS DO SHOW A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING STRONGER WINDS AND COOLER AIR TO
THE AREA.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301>304-306-
     308.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...SML



000
FXUS65 KCYS 022050
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
249 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE THE LARAMIE RANGE BUT THE
OVERALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THAT WILL CHANGE TOMORROW AS A LATE SEASON PUSH OF MONSOON MOISTURE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
WITH THE MAIN THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY. MODELS DO VARY A BIT IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SHORTWAVE SO TOUGH TO PINPOINT THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL BUT CONFIDENT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
RECEIVE SOME MEASURABLE RAIN. DO NOT SEE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT BASED ON MODEL PROGGED SOUNDINGS BUT THE SOUNDINGS ARE
TROPICAL IN NATURE SUCH THAT HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. FORTUNATELY IT LOOKS LIKE STORM WILL MOVE FAST ENOUGH
SUCH THAT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...ALBEIT
HIGHER THAT CLIMATOLOGY.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS THE
AREA BUT CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN
CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. DO NOT SEE ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS BUT AGAIN A FEW HEAVY RAINERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS WEEKEND
PROGGING THE NORTHWEST CONUS UPPER LOW TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN
THROUGH IDAHO AND MONTANA ON SUNDAY. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND WINDIER
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
PRECEDING A PACIFIC FRONT WILL PRODUCE THE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. THE
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH COOLER...MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS DIGGING A UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE FRONT SOUTH INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE PREFERRED ECMWF
AND ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN A DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT WILL BE
BREEZY AT THE SOUTHEAST WY TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT OR HIGHER AT TIMES. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ISOLATED AND
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL DECREASE TOMORROW WITH
ONLY MINIMAL CONCERNS THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. SUBTROPICAL
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND POTENTIALLY THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
WILL BE AFFECTED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. THE ONLY POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN THURSDAY IS INTO EAST CENTRAL WYOMING WHERE HUMIDITY
VALUES MAY DIP TO AROUND 15 PERCENT BEFORE THE MONSOON MOISTURE
ARRIVES. FORTUNATELY WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDES IN THE 5
TO 10 MPH RANGE WITH ONLY A FEW GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH INTO WESTERN
CONVERSE COUNTY.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. THE
MODELS DO SHOW A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING STRONGER WINDS AND COOLER AIR TO
THE AREA.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301>304-306-
     308.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...MAJ
FIRE WEATHER...SML




000
FXUS65 KCYS 022050
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
249 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE THE LARAMIE RANGE BUT THE
OVERALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THAT WILL CHANGE TOMORROW AS A LATE SEASON PUSH OF MONSOON MOISTURE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
WITH THE MAIN THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY. MODELS DO VARY A BIT IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SHORTWAVE SO TOUGH TO PINPOINT THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL BUT CONFIDENT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
RECEIVE SOME MEASURABLE RAIN. DO NOT SEE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT BASED ON MODEL PROGGED SOUNDINGS BUT THE SOUNDINGS ARE
TROPICAL IN NATURE SUCH THAT HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. FORTUNATELY IT LOOKS LIKE STORM WILL MOVE FAST ENOUGH
SUCH THAT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...ALBEIT
HIGHER THAT CLIMATOLOGY.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS THE
AREA BUT CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN
CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. DO NOT SEE ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS BUT AGAIN A FEW HEAVY RAINERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS WEEKEND
PROGGING THE NORTHWEST CONUS UPPER LOW TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN
THROUGH IDAHO AND MONTANA ON SUNDAY. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND WINDIER
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
PRECEDING A PACIFIC FRONT WILL PRODUCE THE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. THE
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH COOLER...MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS DIGGING A UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE FRONT SOUTH INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE PREFERRED ECMWF
AND ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN A DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT WILL BE
BREEZY AT THE SOUTHEAST WY TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT OR HIGHER AT TIMES. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ISOLATED AND
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL DECREASE TOMORROW WITH
ONLY MINIMAL CONCERNS THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. SUBTROPICAL
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND POTENTIALLY THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
WILL BE AFFECTED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. THE ONLY POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN THURSDAY IS INTO EAST CENTRAL WYOMING WHERE HUMIDITY
VALUES MAY DIP TO AROUND 15 PERCENT BEFORE THE MONSOON MOISTURE
ARRIVES. FORTUNATELY WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDES IN THE 5
TO 10 MPH RANGE WITH ONLY A FEW GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH INTO WESTERN
CONVERSE COUNTY.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. THE
MODELS DO SHOW A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING STRONGER WINDS AND COOLER AIR TO
THE AREA.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301>304-306-
     308.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...MAJ
FIRE WEATHER...SML



000
FXUS65 KCYS 022049
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
249 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE THE LARAMIE RANGE BUT THE
OVERALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THAT WILL CHANGE TOMORROW AS A LATE SEASON PUSH OF MONSOON MOISTURE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
WITH THE MAIN THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY. MODELS DO VARY A BIT IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SHORTWAVE SO TOUGH TO PINPOINT THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL BUT CONFIDENT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
RECEIVE SOME MEASURABLE RAIN. DO NOT SEE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT BASED ON MODEL PROGGED SOUNDINGS BUT THE SOUNDINGS ARE
TROPICAL IN NATURE SUCH THAT HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. FORTUNATELY IT LOOKS LIKE STORM WILL MOVE FAST ENOUGH
SUCH THAT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...ALBEIT
HIGHER THAT CLIMATOLOGY.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS THE
AREA BUT CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN
CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. DO NOT SEE ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS BUT AGAIN A FEW HEAVY RAINERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS WEEKEND
PROGGING THE NORTHWEST CONUS UPPER LOW TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN
THROUGH IDAHO AND MONTANA ON SUNDAY. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND WINDIER
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
PRECEDING A PACIFIC FRONT WILL PRODUCE THE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH COOLER... MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS DIGGING A
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT SOUTH INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
THE PREFERRED ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN A DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT WILL BE
BREEZY AT THE SOUTHEAST WY TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT OR HIGHER AT TIMES. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ISOLATED AND
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL DECREASE TOMORROW WITH
ONLY MINIMAL CONCERNS THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. SUBTROPICAL
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND POTENTIALLY THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
WILL BE AFFECTED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. THE ONLY POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN THURSDAY IS INTO EAST CENTRAL WYOMING WHERE HUMIDITY
VALUES MAY DIP TO AROUND 15 PERCENT BEFORE THE MONSOON MOISTURE
ARRIVES. FORTUNATELY WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDES IN THE 5
TO 10 MPH RANGE WITH ONLY A FEW GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH INTO WESTERN
CONVERSE COUNTY.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. THE
MODELS DO SHOW A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING STRONGER WINDS AND COOLER AIR TO
THE AREA.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301>304-306-
     308.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...MAJ
FIRE WEATHER...SML



000
FXUS63 KUNR 022042
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
242 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. UPPER FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IS WESTERLY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE. AT
THE SURFACE...WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WINDS
ARE GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...AND TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM ARE
IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS LARGE UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROF SLOWLY DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
WEAK SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WITH
WEAK SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW CONTINUING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING...TO THE 60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

THURSDAY...RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AS THE TROF
DEEPENS IN THE WEST. SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
CONTINUES...ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HOT TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 90S WITH A FEW SPOTS CLOSE TO 100
DEGREES. LATE IN THE DAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
WESTERN TROF AND CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY MID
EVENING...AND PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD...MAINLY IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW AND THE SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF IT...ALLOWING
FOR A LITTLE BETTER DEFINITION IN POPS. THURSDAY NIGHT`S SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR -TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL SD THEN. NEXT
WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING AND BRINGS MORE
CHANCES OF PRECIP TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. UPPER LOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT THAT 700MB LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
MT...PUSHING MUCH OF THE PRECIP NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA.
THEREFORE LABOR DAY WEEKEND IS CURRENTLY LOOKING A LITTLE DRIER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY...WITH A
GRADUAL COOLDOWN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING ARE HOT AND VERY
DRY...WITH TEMPS IN THE 90S...DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND RH VALUES 10 TO 15 PERCENT. SOME BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS SOUTHERN
CAMPBELL COUNTY...AND SO WILL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE
FIRE WEATHER...POJORLIE



000
FXUS63 KUNR 022042
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
242 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. UPPER FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IS WESTERLY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE. AT
THE SURFACE...WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WINDS
ARE GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...AND TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM ARE
IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS LARGE UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROF SLOWLY DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
WEAK SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WITH
WEAK SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW CONTINUING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING...TO THE 60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

THURSDAY...RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AS THE TROF
DEEPENS IN THE WEST. SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
CONTINUES...ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HOT TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 90S WITH A FEW SPOTS CLOSE TO 100
DEGREES. LATE IN THE DAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
WESTERN TROF AND CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY MID
EVENING...AND PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD...MAINLY IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW AND THE SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF IT...ALLOWING
FOR A LITTLE BETTER DEFINITION IN POPS. THURSDAY NIGHT`S SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR -TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL SD THEN. NEXT
WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING AND BRINGS MORE
CHANCES OF PRECIP TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. UPPER LOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT THAT 700MB LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
MT...PUSHING MUCH OF THE PRECIP NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA.
THEREFORE LABOR DAY WEEKEND IS CURRENTLY LOOKING A LITTLE DRIER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY...WITH A
GRADUAL COOLDOWN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING ARE HOT AND VERY
DRY...WITH TEMPS IN THE 90S...DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND RH VALUES 10 TO 15 PERCENT. SOME BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS SOUTHERN
CAMPBELL COUNTY...AND SO WILL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE
FIRE WEATHER...POJORLIE



000
FXUS63 KUNR 022042
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
242 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. UPPER FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IS WESTERLY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE. AT
THE SURFACE...WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WINDS
ARE GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...AND TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM ARE
IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS LARGE UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROF SLOWLY DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
WEAK SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WITH
WEAK SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW CONTINUING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING...TO THE 60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

THURSDAY...RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AS THE TROF
DEEPENS IN THE WEST. SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
CONTINUES...ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HOT TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 90S WITH A FEW SPOTS CLOSE TO 100
DEGREES. LATE IN THE DAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
WESTERN TROF AND CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY MID
EVENING...AND PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD...MAINLY IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW AND THE SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF IT...ALLOWING
FOR A LITTLE BETTER DEFINITION IN POPS. THURSDAY NIGHT`S SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR -TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL SD THEN. NEXT
WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING AND BRINGS MORE
CHANCES OF PRECIP TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. UPPER LOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT THAT 700MB LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
MT...PUSHING MUCH OF THE PRECIP NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA.
THEREFORE LABOR DAY WEEKEND IS CURRENTLY LOOKING A LITTLE DRIER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY...WITH A
GRADUAL COOLDOWN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING ARE HOT AND VERY
DRY...WITH TEMPS IN THE 90S...DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND RH VALUES 10 TO 15 PERCENT. SOME BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS SOUTHERN
CAMPBELL COUNTY...AND SO WILL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE
FIRE WEATHER...POJORLIE




000
FXUS63 KUNR 022042
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
242 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. UPPER FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IS WESTERLY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE. AT
THE SURFACE...WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WINDS
ARE GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...AND TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM ARE
IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS LARGE UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROF SLOWLY DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
WEAK SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WITH
WEAK SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW CONTINUING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING...TO THE 60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

THURSDAY...RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AS THE TROF
DEEPENS IN THE WEST. SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
CONTINUES...ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HOT TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 90S WITH A FEW SPOTS CLOSE TO 100
DEGREES. LATE IN THE DAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
WESTERN TROF AND CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY MID
EVENING...AND PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD...MAINLY IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW AND THE SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF IT...ALLOWING
FOR A LITTLE BETTER DEFINITION IN POPS. THURSDAY NIGHT`S SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR -TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL SD THEN. NEXT
WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING AND BRINGS MORE
CHANCES OF PRECIP TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. UPPER LOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT THAT 700MB LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
MT...PUSHING MUCH OF THE PRECIP NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA.
THEREFORE LABOR DAY WEEKEND IS CURRENTLY LOOKING A LITTLE DRIER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY...WITH A
GRADUAL COOLDOWN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING ARE HOT AND VERY
DRY...WITH TEMPS IN THE 90S...DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND RH VALUES 10 TO 15 PERCENT. SOME BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS SOUTHERN
CAMPBELL COUNTY...AND SO WILL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE
FIRE WEATHER...POJORLIE




000
FXUS65 KRIW 022027
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
227 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

WV IMAGERY SHOWING MODEST BROAD RIDGING PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE
CONUS AND WY UNDER SW FLOW...WHILE THE WCST AND PAC NW STATES ARE
THE ONLY AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE FALL-LIKE TROF. MINOR
EMBEDDED SW/JET STREAK ACROSS NERN NV/NRN UT...WITH A STRONGER
EMBEDDED WAVE OVR SRN AZ/SWRN NM. SFC HAS HIGH P TO THE S OVR THE 4
CORNERS AND LOW P TO THE N SPLITTING MT WITH A TROF SAGGING DOWN
INTO CNTRL/SWRN WY.

WARM/VERY DRY TODAY WITH TYPICAL S TO SWRLY SFC WINDS GUSTING 20 TO
30 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN/SERN FA...RAISING FIRE DANGER
CONCERNS OVR CRITICAL FUEL AREAS...MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...
TO THE RED FLAG CATEGORY. THIS DRY AND WINDY STATE...WHILE
DECREASING OVERNIGHT...WILL GENERALLY HANG AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST
PART OF THE DAY THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE...WITH
RFW SET TO EXPIRE THU EVENING. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTION IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A DRY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE
IN PLACE AND LITTLE SFC TO MID LVL FORCING TO OVERCOME THE LID.
TONIGHT...HOWEVER...THE SMALL SW/JET STREAK COMING INTO NRN UT WILL
ARRIVE NEAR/OVR THE WRN FA NEAR MIDNIGHT...DEVELOPING A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY/LOW...AND WEAKENING THE CAP JUST ENOUGH IN THAT AREA TO
ALLOW SOME SHRA/ISOLATED THUNDER ACTIVITY TO BLOSSOM FOR A SHORT
PERIOD BEFORE MOVING OUT BY THU AM.

THEN...AS THURSDAY PROGRESSES...THE NEXT STRONGER UPR WAVE...
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR THE DESERT SW...WILL HEAD INTO SRN WY ALONG
WITH A SMALL BUT DECENT BLOB OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THIS WILL
GREATLY INCREASE MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WEST AND
ESPECIALLY THE SRN AND SERN CWA INTO/THRU THE AFTERNOON
PERIOD...APPEARING TO LOWER THE FIRE DANGER POTENTIAL FOR THIS
AREA...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY STILL OCCASIONALLY GUST OVER 20 MPH AT
TIMES. HARD TO SAY HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT EXACTLY...BUT IT`S
BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE RED FLAG CONDITIONS WEST OF THE DIVIDE MAY
NOT PLAY OUT TOMORROW. THE REGION MOST LIKELY TO SEE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THURSDAY WILL BE ERN FREMONT...NERN SWEETWATER...AND
NATRONA/JOHNSON COUNTIES. WILL SEE WHAT THE NIGHT CREW THINKS ABOUT
TOMORROW`S FIRE WX CHANCES AS THE TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

OTHERWISE...LOW P JUMPS FROM ERN ID AND DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE
ABSAROKAS OVR THE BIG HORN BASIN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND MOISTURE
INFILTRATING SRN/SERN WY. A LINE FROM ROUGHLY FROM EVANSTON TO
KAYCEE AND POINTS EWD WILL BE THE AREA THAT WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCES BY THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD FOR WIDELY SCATTERED/SCATTERED
PRECIP...WITH GUSTY WIND PRODUCERS EARLY BEING REPLACED BY BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN TYPE STORMS. NORTH OF THIS LINE...MORE ISOLATED SHRA/ISO
THUNDER WILL BE THE RULE...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP ACROSS THE WEST
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW WILL CONTINUE PUMPING SOME
MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVER WYOMING FROM THU
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES SEEM
TO BE SLOWLY INCREASING AS MOISTURE FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES GETS
DRAWN UP. FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOK TO HAVE SLIGHT
INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BIGHORNS FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  AS THE CORE OF THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO IDAHO ON SATURDAY...INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE IN
WESTERN WYOMING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.  THE MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW INCREASES AT THIS TIME
TRACKING FROM CENTRAL IDAHO ACROSS YNP AND INTO NE MONTANA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  AT THIS TIME...700MB TEMPS OF -3 TO -4C ARE LIKELY
ACROSS NW WYOMING FROM SUNDAY MIDNIGHT TO NOON...CHANGING THE
OROGRAPHIC RAIN OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE TETONS AND YNP.  AT THIS
TIME...EXPECTING 1-2 INCHES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF YNP BY NOON
SUNDAY...WITH TETON...BEARTOOTH...AND TOGWOTEE PASSES GETTING IN ON
THE ACTION AS WELL. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING LOOKS TO BE FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

WITH THE CLOSED LOW STAYING TO THE NORTH...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
WYOMING WILL BE IN THE WINDY SOUTHERN SECTOR AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS SW WY...AND LOW 40S IN THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN BASINS.  AT THIS TIME ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY.  CLEARING AND WARMING IS
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE GFS WHICH IS
BRINGING ANOTHER WEAKER TROUGH DOWN FROM ALBERTA INTO NW WY BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. APART FROM THIS ANOMALY...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH STEADY AT OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL MAKE ONE FEEL LIKE FALL IS STARTING IN THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES.


&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT MANY TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN AGAIN AFTER 19Z. FROM 03Z TO
12Z...ISOLATED SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WEST AND NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE...LLWS WILL
BECOME AN INCREASING POSSIBILITY AROUND THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS SETTLE IN BY/AFTER 06Z. AT THE MOMENT THE
TWO MOST LIKELY TERMINALS TO SEE THIS WIND SHEAR ARE KBPI AND
KCPR...BOTH ENDING BY 12Z. SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 21Z...WITH VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE NEAR
KRKS...KCPR...AND POSSIBLY KWRL IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER EXTREME TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE 10 TO NEAR 15 PERCENT FOR MOST
LOW ELEVATIONS...AND WINDS WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST GUSTING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH AT TIMES. TONIGHT...RH
AND WIND VALUES WILL DROP BELOW CRITICAL BEFORE RETURNING TO EXTREME
AGAIN THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BASINS.
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY...WITH BEST AREAS FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AS AN AREA
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. EXTREME FIRE DANGER
CONDITIONS WILL END FROM SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE
DAY. IN GENERAL...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HELPING TO KEEP FIRE DANGER IN
CHECK EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE AT TIMES.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR WYZ275>277-279>283-
285-287-289-300-414>416.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...MCDONALD
AVIATION...BRAUN
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN



000
FXUS65 KRIW 022027
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
227 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

WV IMAGERY SHOWING MODEST BROAD RIDGING PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE
CONUS AND WY UNDER SW FLOW...WHILE THE WCST AND PAC NW STATES ARE
THE ONLY AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE FALL-LIKE TROF. MINOR
EMBEDDED SW/JET STREAK ACROSS NERN NV/NRN UT...WITH A STRONGER
EMBEDDED WAVE OVR SRN AZ/SWRN NM. SFC HAS HIGH P TO THE S OVR THE 4
CORNERS AND LOW P TO THE N SPLITTING MT WITH A TROF SAGGING DOWN
INTO CNTRL/SWRN WY.

WARM/VERY DRY TODAY WITH TYPICAL S TO SWRLY SFC WINDS GUSTING 20 TO
30 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN/SERN FA...RAISING FIRE DANGER
CONCERNS OVR CRITICAL FUEL AREAS...MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...
TO THE RED FLAG CATEGORY. THIS DRY AND WINDY STATE...WHILE
DECREASING OVERNIGHT...WILL GENERALLY HANG AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST
PART OF THE DAY THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE...WITH
RFW SET TO EXPIRE THU EVENING. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTION IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A DRY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE
IN PLACE AND LITTLE SFC TO MID LVL FORCING TO OVERCOME THE LID.
TONIGHT...HOWEVER...THE SMALL SW/JET STREAK COMING INTO NRN UT WILL
ARRIVE NEAR/OVR THE WRN FA NEAR MIDNIGHT...DEVELOPING A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY/LOW...AND WEAKENING THE CAP JUST ENOUGH IN THAT AREA TO
ALLOW SOME SHRA/ISOLATED THUNDER ACTIVITY TO BLOSSOM FOR A SHORT
PERIOD BEFORE MOVING OUT BY THU AM.

THEN...AS THURSDAY PROGRESSES...THE NEXT STRONGER UPR WAVE...
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR THE DESERT SW...WILL HEAD INTO SRN WY ALONG
WITH A SMALL BUT DECENT BLOB OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THIS WILL
GREATLY INCREASE MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WEST AND
ESPECIALLY THE SRN AND SERN CWA INTO/THRU THE AFTERNOON
PERIOD...APPEARING TO LOWER THE FIRE DANGER POTENTIAL FOR THIS
AREA...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY STILL OCCASIONALLY GUST OVER 20 MPH AT
TIMES. HARD TO SAY HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT EXACTLY...BUT IT`S
BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE RED FLAG CONDITIONS WEST OF THE DIVIDE MAY
NOT PLAY OUT TOMORROW. THE REGION MOST LIKELY TO SEE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THURSDAY WILL BE ERN FREMONT...NERN SWEETWATER...AND
NATRONA/JOHNSON COUNTIES. WILL SEE WHAT THE NIGHT CREW THINKS ABOUT
TOMORROW`S FIRE WX CHANCES AS THE TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

OTHERWISE...LOW P JUMPS FROM ERN ID AND DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE
ABSAROKAS OVR THE BIG HORN BASIN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND MOISTURE
INFILTRATING SRN/SERN WY. A LINE FROM ROUGHLY FROM EVANSTON TO
KAYCEE AND POINTS EWD WILL BE THE AREA THAT WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCES BY THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD FOR WIDELY SCATTERED/SCATTERED
PRECIP...WITH GUSTY WIND PRODUCERS EARLY BEING REPLACED BY BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN TYPE STORMS. NORTH OF THIS LINE...MORE ISOLATED SHRA/ISO
THUNDER WILL BE THE RULE...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP ACROSS THE WEST
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW WILL CONTINUE PUMPING SOME
MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVER WYOMING FROM THU
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES SEEM
TO BE SLOWLY INCREASING AS MOISTURE FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES GETS
DRAWN UP. FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOK TO HAVE SLIGHT
INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BIGHORNS FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  AS THE CORE OF THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO IDAHO ON SATURDAY...INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE IN
WESTERN WYOMING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.  THE MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW INCREASES AT THIS TIME
TRACKING FROM CENTRAL IDAHO ACROSS YNP AND INTO NE MONTANA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  AT THIS TIME...700MB TEMPS OF -3 TO -4C ARE LIKELY
ACROSS NW WYOMING FROM SUNDAY MIDNIGHT TO NOON...CHANGING THE
OROGRAPHIC RAIN OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE TETONS AND YNP.  AT THIS
TIME...EXPECTING 1-2 INCHES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF YNP BY NOON
SUNDAY...WITH TETON...BEARTOOTH...AND TOGWOTEE PASSES GETTING IN ON
THE ACTION AS WELL. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING LOOKS TO BE FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

WITH THE CLOSED LOW STAYING TO THE NORTH...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
WYOMING WILL BE IN THE WINDY SOUTHERN SECTOR AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS SW WY...AND LOW 40S IN THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN BASINS.  AT THIS TIME ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY.  CLEARING AND WARMING IS
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE GFS WHICH IS
BRINGING ANOTHER WEAKER TROUGH DOWN FROM ALBERTA INTO NW WY BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. APART FROM THIS ANOMALY...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH STEADY AT OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL MAKE ONE FEEL LIKE FALL IS STARTING IN THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES.


&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT MANY TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN AGAIN AFTER 19Z. FROM 03Z TO
12Z...ISOLATED SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WEST AND NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE...LLWS WILL
BECOME AN INCREASING POSSIBILITY AROUND THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS SETTLE IN BY/AFTER 06Z. AT THE MOMENT THE
TWO MOST LIKELY TERMINALS TO SEE THIS WIND SHEAR ARE KBPI AND
KCPR...BOTH ENDING BY 12Z. SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 21Z...WITH VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE NEAR
KRKS...KCPR...AND POSSIBLY KWRL IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER EXTREME TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE 10 TO NEAR 15 PERCENT FOR MOST
LOW ELEVATIONS...AND WINDS WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST GUSTING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH AT TIMES. TONIGHT...RH
AND WIND VALUES WILL DROP BELOW CRITICAL BEFORE RETURNING TO EXTREME
AGAIN THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BASINS.
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY...WITH BEST AREAS FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AS AN AREA
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. EXTREME FIRE DANGER
CONDITIONS WILL END FROM SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE
DAY. IN GENERAL...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HELPING TO KEEP FIRE DANGER IN
CHECK EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE AT TIMES.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR WYZ275>277-279>283-
285-287-289-300-414>416.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...MCDONALD
AVIATION...BRAUN
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN



000
FXUS65 KRIW 022027
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
227 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

WV IMAGERY SHOWING MODEST BROAD RIDGING PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE
CONUS AND WY UNDER SW FLOW...WHILE THE WCST AND PAC NW STATES ARE
THE ONLY AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE FALL-LIKE TROF. MINOR
EMBEDDED SW/JET STREAK ACROSS NERN NV/NRN UT...WITH A STRONGER
EMBEDDED WAVE OVR SRN AZ/SWRN NM. SFC HAS HIGH P TO THE S OVR THE 4
CORNERS AND LOW P TO THE N SPLITTING MT WITH A TROF SAGGING DOWN
INTO CNTRL/SWRN WY.

WARM/VERY DRY TODAY WITH TYPICAL S TO SWRLY SFC WINDS GUSTING 20 TO
30 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN/SERN FA...RAISING FIRE DANGER
CONCERNS OVR CRITICAL FUEL AREAS...MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...
TO THE RED FLAG CATEGORY. THIS DRY AND WINDY STATE...WHILE
DECREASING OVERNIGHT...WILL GENERALLY HANG AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST
PART OF THE DAY THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE...WITH
RFW SET TO EXPIRE THU EVENING. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTION IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A DRY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE
IN PLACE AND LITTLE SFC TO MID LVL FORCING TO OVERCOME THE LID.
TONIGHT...HOWEVER...THE SMALL SW/JET STREAK COMING INTO NRN UT WILL
ARRIVE NEAR/OVR THE WRN FA NEAR MIDNIGHT...DEVELOPING A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY/LOW...AND WEAKENING THE CAP JUST ENOUGH IN THAT AREA TO
ALLOW SOME SHRA/ISOLATED THUNDER ACTIVITY TO BLOSSOM FOR A SHORT
PERIOD BEFORE MOVING OUT BY THU AM.

THEN...AS THURSDAY PROGRESSES...THE NEXT STRONGER UPR WAVE...
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR THE DESERT SW...WILL HEAD INTO SRN WY ALONG
WITH A SMALL BUT DECENT BLOB OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THIS WILL
GREATLY INCREASE MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WEST AND
ESPECIALLY THE SRN AND SERN CWA INTO/THRU THE AFTERNOON
PERIOD...APPEARING TO LOWER THE FIRE DANGER POTENTIAL FOR THIS
AREA...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY STILL OCCASIONALLY GUST OVER 20 MPH AT
TIMES. HARD TO SAY HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT EXACTLY...BUT IT`S
BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE RED FLAG CONDITIONS WEST OF THE DIVIDE MAY
NOT PLAY OUT TOMORROW. THE REGION MOST LIKELY TO SEE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THURSDAY WILL BE ERN FREMONT...NERN SWEETWATER...AND
NATRONA/JOHNSON COUNTIES. WILL SEE WHAT THE NIGHT CREW THINKS ABOUT
TOMORROW`S FIRE WX CHANCES AS THE TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

OTHERWISE...LOW P JUMPS FROM ERN ID AND DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE
ABSAROKAS OVR THE BIG HORN BASIN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND MOISTURE
INFILTRATING SRN/SERN WY. A LINE FROM ROUGHLY FROM EVANSTON TO
KAYCEE AND POINTS EWD WILL BE THE AREA THAT WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCES BY THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD FOR WIDELY SCATTERED/SCATTERED
PRECIP...WITH GUSTY WIND PRODUCERS EARLY BEING REPLACED BY BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN TYPE STORMS. NORTH OF THIS LINE...MORE ISOLATED SHRA/ISO
THUNDER WILL BE THE RULE...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP ACROSS THE WEST
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW WILL CONTINUE PUMPING SOME
MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVER WYOMING FROM THU
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES SEEM
TO BE SLOWLY INCREASING AS MOISTURE FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES GETS
DRAWN UP. FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOK TO HAVE SLIGHT
INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BIGHORNS FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  AS THE CORE OF THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO IDAHO ON SATURDAY...INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE IN
WESTERN WYOMING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.  THE MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW INCREASES AT THIS TIME
TRACKING FROM CENTRAL IDAHO ACROSS YNP AND INTO NE MONTANA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  AT THIS TIME...700MB TEMPS OF -3 TO -4C ARE LIKELY
ACROSS NW WYOMING FROM SUNDAY MIDNIGHT TO NOON...CHANGING THE
OROGRAPHIC RAIN OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE TETONS AND YNP.  AT THIS
TIME...EXPECTING 1-2 INCHES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF YNP BY NOON
SUNDAY...WITH TETON...BEARTOOTH...AND TOGWOTEE PASSES GETTING IN ON
THE ACTION AS WELL. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING LOOKS TO BE FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

WITH THE CLOSED LOW STAYING TO THE NORTH...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
WYOMING WILL BE IN THE WINDY SOUTHERN SECTOR AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS SW WY...AND LOW 40S IN THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN BASINS.  AT THIS TIME ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY.  CLEARING AND WARMING IS
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE GFS WHICH IS
BRINGING ANOTHER WEAKER TROUGH DOWN FROM ALBERTA INTO NW WY BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. APART FROM THIS ANOMALY...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH STEADY AT OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL MAKE ONE FEEL LIKE FALL IS STARTING IN THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES.


&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT MANY TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN AGAIN AFTER 19Z. FROM 03Z TO
12Z...ISOLATED SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WEST AND NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE...LLWS WILL
BECOME AN INCREASING POSSIBILITY AROUND THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS SETTLE IN BY/AFTER 06Z. AT THE MOMENT THE
TWO MOST LIKELY TERMINALS TO SEE THIS WIND SHEAR ARE KBPI AND
KCPR...BOTH ENDING BY 12Z. SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 21Z...WITH VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE NEAR
KRKS...KCPR...AND POSSIBLY KWRL IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER EXTREME TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE 10 TO NEAR 15 PERCENT FOR MOST
LOW ELEVATIONS...AND WINDS WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST GUSTING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH AT TIMES. TONIGHT...RH
AND WIND VALUES WILL DROP BELOW CRITICAL BEFORE RETURNING TO EXTREME
AGAIN THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BASINS.
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY...WITH BEST AREAS FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AS AN AREA
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. EXTREME FIRE DANGER
CONDITIONS WILL END FROM SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE
DAY. IN GENERAL...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HELPING TO KEEP FIRE DANGER IN
CHECK EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE AT TIMES.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR WYZ275>277-279>283-
285-287-289-300-414>416.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...MCDONALD
AVIATION...BRAUN
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN



000
FXUS65 KRIW 022027
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
227 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

WV IMAGERY SHOWING MODEST BROAD RIDGING PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE
CONUS AND WY UNDER SW FLOW...WHILE THE WCST AND PAC NW STATES ARE
THE ONLY AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE FALL-LIKE TROF. MINOR
EMBEDDED SW/JET STREAK ACROSS NERN NV/NRN UT...WITH A STRONGER
EMBEDDED WAVE OVR SRN AZ/SWRN NM. SFC HAS HIGH P TO THE S OVR THE 4
CORNERS AND LOW P TO THE N SPLITTING MT WITH A TROF SAGGING DOWN
INTO CNTRL/SWRN WY.

WARM/VERY DRY TODAY WITH TYPICAL S TO SWRLY SFC WINDS GUSTING 20 TO
30 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN/SERN FA...RAISING FIRE DANGER
CONCERNS OVR CRITICAL FUEL AREAS...MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...
TO THE RED FLAG CATEGORY. THIS DRY AND WINDY STATE...WHILE
DECREASING OVERNIGHT...WILL GENERALLY HANG AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST
PART OF THE DAY THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE...WITH
RFW SET TO EXPIRE THU EVENING. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTION IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A DRY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE
IN PLACE AND LITTLE SFC TO MID LVL FORCING TO OVERCOME THE LID.
TONIGHT...HOWEVER...THE SMALL SW/JET STREAK COMING INTO NRN UT WILL
ARRIVE NEAR/OVR THE WRN FA NEAR MIDNIGHT...DEVELOPING A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY/LOW...AND WEAKENING THE CAP JUST ENOUGH IN THAT AREA TO
ALLOW SOME SHRA/ISOLATED THUNDER ACTIVITY TO BLOSSOM FOR A SHORT
PERIOD BEFORE MOVING OUT BY THU AM.

THEN...AS THURSDAY PROGRESSES...THE NEXT STRONGER UPR WAVE...
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR THE DESERT SW...WILL HEAD INTO SRN WY ALONG
WITH A SMALL BUT DECENT BLOB OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THIS WILL
GREATLY INCREASE MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WEST AND
ESPECIALLY THE SRN AND SERN CWA INTO/THRU THE AFTERNOON
PERIOD...APPEARING TO LOWER THE FIRE DANGER POTENTIAL FOR THIS
AREA...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY STILL OCCASIONALLY GUST OVER 20 MPH AT
TIMES. HARD TO SAY HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT EXACTLY...BUT IT`S
BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE RED FLAG CONDITIONS WEST OF THE DIVIDE MAY
NOT PLAY OUT TOMORROW. THE REGION MOST LIKELY TO SEE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THURSDAY WILL BE ERN FREMONT...NERN SWEETWATER...AND
NATRONA/JOHNSON COUNTIES. WILL SEE WHAT THE NIGHT CREW THINKS ABOUT
TOMORROW`S FIRE WX CHANCES AS THE TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

OTHERWISE...LOW P JUMPS FROM ERN ID AND DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE
ABSAROKAS OVR THE BIG HORN BASIN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND MOISTURE
INFILTRATING SRN/SERN WY. A LINE FROM ROUGHLY FROM EVANSTON TO
KAYCEE AND POINTS EWD WILL BE THE AREA THAT WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCES BY THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD FOR WIDELY SCATTERED/SCATTERED
PRECIP...WITH GUSTY WIND PRODUCERS EARLY BEING REPLACED BY BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN TYPE STORMS. NORTH OF THIS LINE...MORE ISOLATED SHRA/ISO
THUNDER WILL BE THE RULE...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP ACROSS THE WEST
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW WILL CONTINUE PUMPING SOME
MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVER WYOMING FROM THU
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES SEEM
TO BE SLOWLY INCREASING AS MOISTURE FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES GETS
DRAWN UP. FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOK TO HAVE SLIGHT
INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BIGHORNS FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  AS THE CORE OF THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO IDAHO ON SATURDAY...INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE IN
WESTERN WYOMING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.  THE MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW INCREASES AT THIS TIME
TRACKING FROM CENTRAL IDAHO ACROSS YNP AND INTO NE MONTANA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  AT THIS TIME...700MB TEMPS OF -3 TO -4C ARE LIKELY
ACROSS NW WYOMING FROM SUNDAY MIDNIGHT TO NOON...CHANGING THE
OROGRAPHIC RAIN OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE TETONS AND YNP.  AT THIS
TIME...EXPECTING 1-2 INCHES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF YNP BY NOON
SUNDAY...WITH TETON...BEARTOOTH...AND TOGWOTEE PASSES GETTING IN ON
THE ACTION AS WELL. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING LOOKS TO BE FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

WITH THE CLOSED LOW STAYING TO THE NORTH...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
WYOMING WILL BE IN THE WINDY SOUTHERN SECTOR AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS SW WY...AND LOW 40S IN THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN BASINS.  AT THIS TIME ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY.  CLEARING AND WARMING IS
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE GFS WHICH IS
BRINGING ANOTHER WEAKER TROUGH DOWN FROM ALBERTA INTO NW WY BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. APART FROM THIS ANOMALY...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH STEADY AT OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL MAKE ONE FEEL LIKE FALL IS STARTING IN THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES.


&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT MANY TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN AGAIN AFTER 19Z. FROM 03Z TO
12Z...ISOLATED SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WEST AND NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE...LLWS WILL
BECOME AN INCREASING POSSIBILITY AROUND THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS SETTLE IN BY/AFTER 06Z. AT THE MOMENT THE
TWO MOST LIKELY TERMINALS TO SEE THIS WIND SHEAR ARE KBPI AND
KCPR...BOTH ENDING BY 12Z. SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 21Z...WITH VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE NEAR
KRKS...KCPR...AND POSSIBLY KWRL IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER EXTREME TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE 10 TO NEAR 15 PERCENT FOR MOST
LOW ELEVATIONS...AND WINDS WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST GUSTING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH AT TIMES. TONIGHT...RH
AND WIND VALUES WILL DROP BELOW CRITICAL BEFORE RETURNING TO EXTREME
AGAIN THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BASINS.
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY...WITH BEST AREAS FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AS AN AREA
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. EXTREME FIRE DANGER
CONDITIONS WILL END FROM SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE
DAY. IN GENERAL...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HELPING TO KEEP FIRE DANGER IN
CHECK EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE AT TIMES.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR WYZ275>277-279>283-
285-287-289-300-414>416.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...MCDONALD
AVIATION...BRAUN
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN



000
FXUS65 KCYS 021734
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1134 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 1015 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TODAY FORECAST. DECREASED CLOUD COVER FOR
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SHOULD SEE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO BEGINNING TO MOVE
INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
ON THE LOW SIDE BUT MAY SEE A FEW DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD DIE OFF AS IT MOVES
OFF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

TODAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG INTERSTATE 25. THOUGH WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM OVER THE
SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE...IT WILL BE DRY.

TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS FROM OUR SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.

THURSDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES INTO COLORADO AND OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH THE LOWER AND MID LEVEL SATURATING EVEN
FURTHER. FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH POPS OVER OUR SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN
RANGES NEAR THE COLORADO BORDERS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS INTO THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW AND
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN REGION. THERE WILL BE A PRETTY STRONG JET
STREAM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR OVER THE AREA...WHICH MAY
INFLUENCE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME CONVECTION ON SATURDAY EVEN
THOUGH INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL. SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA...BUT DO NOT SEE A CLEARLY DEFINED COLD FRONT
UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
WYOMING. KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S ON
SATURDAY.

MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR SUNDAY...AND ALL ARE
SHOWING A NEGATIVELY TILTED OPEN WAVE THROUGH LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY. THE GEM IS THE LEAST PROGRESSIVE
COMPARED TO THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT STILL PRETTY SIMILAR. IF THIS
SOLUTION VERIFIES...MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY BUT VERY
WINDY ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE NORTHWARD STORM TRACK. LOWER POP BELOW
10 PERCENT ON SUNDAY...BUT INCREASED WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
GUSTS OVER 50 MPH POSSIBLE DUE TO A 110 KT JET MAX MOVING ACROSS
WYOMING AND MONTANA.

MODELS THEN INDICATE NEAR ZONAL FLOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS HINTING
TOWARDS A MAJOR COLD FRONT DIGGING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT WILL
BE BREEZY AT THE SOUTHEAST WY TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT OR HIGHER AT TIMES. THE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE RATHER ISOLATED AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY
ESPECIALLY OVER OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN DISTRICT WHERE LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH
AT TIMES. LOW HUMIDITIES AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF A
RAWLINS TO LUSK LINE WITH GUSTY WINDS OVER 25 MPH...THUS WE MAY
NEED ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AT SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES/YEAR FOR SEP 2...

RAWLINS 89/1995
LARAMIE 87/2013
CHEYENNE 92/1947
CHADRON 101/1960
ALLIANCE 97/2001
SCOTTSBLUFF 98/1983
SIDNEY 99/1983

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301>304-306-
     308.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...MAJ
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN
CLIMATE...RUBIN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 021734
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1134 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 1015 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TODAY FORECAST. DECREASED CLOUD COVER FOR
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SHOULD SEE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO BEGINNING TO MOVE
INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
ON THE LOW SIDE BUT MAY SEE A FEW DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD DIE OFF AS IT MOVES
OFF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

TODAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG INTERSTATE 25. THOUGH WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM OVER THE
SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE...IT WILL BE DRY.

TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS FROM OUR SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.

THURSDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES INTO COLORADO AND OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH THE LOWER AND MID LEVEL SATURATING EVEN
FURTHER. FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH POPS OVER OUR SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN
RANGES NEAR THE COLORADO BORDERS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS INTO THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW AND
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN REGION. THERE WILL BE A PRETTY STRONG JET
STREAM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR OVER THE AREA...WHICH MAY
INFLUENCE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME CONVECTION ON SATURDAY EVEN
THOUGH INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL. SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA...BUT DO NOT SEE A CLEARLY DEFINED COLD FRONT
UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
WYOMING. KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S ON
SATURDAY.

MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR SUNDAY...AND ALL ARE
SHOWING A NEGATIVELY TILTED OPEN WAVE THROUGH LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY. THE GEM IS THE LEAST PROGRESSIVE
COMPARED TO THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT STILL PRETTY SIMILAR. IF THIS
SOLUTION VERIFIES...MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY BUT VERY
WINDY ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE NORTHWARD STORM TRACK. LOWER POP BELOW
10 PERCENT ON SUNDAY...BUT INCREASED WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
GUSTS OVER 50 MPH POSSIBLE DUE TO A 110 KT JET MAX MOVING ACROSS
WYOMING AND MONTANA.

MODELS THEN INDICATE NEAR ZONAL FLOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS HINTING
TOWARDS A MAJOR COLD FRONT DIGGING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT WILL
BE BREEZY AT THE SOUTHEAST WY TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT OR HIGHER AT TIMES. THE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE RATHER ISOLATED AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY
ESPECIALLY OVER OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN DISTRICT WHERE LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH
AT TIMES. LOW HUMIDITIES AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF A
RAWLINS TO LUSK LINE WITH GUSTY WINDS OVER 25 MPH...THUS WE MAY
NEED ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AT SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES/YEAR FOR SEP 2...

RAWLINS 89/1995
LARAMIE 87/2013
CHEYENNE 92/1947
CHADRON 101/1960
ALLIANCE 97/2001
SCOTTSBLUFF 98/1983
SIDNEY 99/1983

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301>304-306-
     308.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...MAJ
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN
CLIMATE...RUBIN



000
FXUS65 KRIW 021708
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1107 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

A FEW WEAK SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING THIS
MORNING...WITH LITTLE TO NO CONSEQUENCE. THE STORY CONTINUES TO BE
CRITICAL FIRE BEHAVIOR. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ABLE TO WARM
TODAY UNDER PERSISTENT LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL AGAIN RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH A WEAK
PUSH OF MOISTURE NOTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS PUSH MAY GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL PICK UP ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EVEN WITH THIS PUSH OF MOISTURE... SOME AREAS
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE DRY...WINDY...AND WARM CONDITIONS. THIS
WILL KEEP EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

FIRE WEATHER WILL FINALLY SEE SOME REPRIEVE FRIDAY. THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...PUSHING ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE INTO THE STATE. THIS
SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO
REBOUND RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY WIND WILL STILL BE
A THREAT ON FRIDAY...THOUGH THE REMAINDER OF FIRE WEATHER ELEMENTS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE CRITICAL. THE PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL DIG NEAR
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS
REMAINING OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A STRONG AND UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
ABOUT 6 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE GFS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON
SATURDAY...EXPECT MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS. AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER RIGHT
NOW...MIN RH IS NOT FORECAST TO REACH CRITICAL CRITERIA.
DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING WEST OF THE DIVIDE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO ACTIVITY EAST. A BETTER CHANCE
OF CONVECTION WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE...AS WELL AS NEAR THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. THE BEST SHOT OF PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. 700 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND -3C BY
AROUND 12Z SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE EXTREME WEST/NORTHWEST WHICH
WOULD CORRELATE WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 7000
FEET. HAVE NOT BROUGHT SNOW LEVELS DOWN THAT FAR...AND MODELS SHOW
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION EXITING THE AREA BY THE TIME THE
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

A MAINLY DRY WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
THE ECMWF HINTS AT A WEAK SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
IMPACTING THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. HAVE
ELECTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...BUT LATER SHIFTS MIGHT
NEED TO ADD SOME POPS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IF
THE ECMWF SOLUTION COMES TO FRUITION.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT MANY TERMINAL SITES THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. AFTER 03Z ISOLATED SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH 12Z THURS.
OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS.
OTHERWISE...LLWS WILL BECOME AN INCREASING POSSIBILITY AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS SETTLE IN BY 06Z TONIGHT. AT
THE MOMENT THE TWO MOST LIKELY TERMINALS TO SEE THIS WIND SHEAR ARE
KBPI AND KCPR...BOTH ENDING BY 12Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. AN APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL KEEP INCREASED
SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN WYOMING. MEANWHILE...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PERSIST WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL KEEP JUSTIFICATION FOR THE RED
FLAG WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY RELAX
LATE THURSDAY AS AN APPROACHING NORTHWEST SYSTEM WILL PUSH MORE
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA TO HELP ALLEVIATE THE LOW HUMIDITY. GUSTY
WINDS...HOWEVER...ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR WYZ275>277-279>283-
285-287-289-300-414>416.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...JB
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM




000
FXUS65 KRIW 021708
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1107 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

A FEW WEAK SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING THIS
MORNING...WITH LITTLE TO NO CONSEQUENCE. THE STORY CONTINUES TO BE
CRITICAL FIRE BEHAVIOR. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ABLE TO WARM
TODAY UNDER PERSISTENT LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL AGAIN RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH A WEAK
PUSH OF MOISTURE NOTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS PUSH MAY GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL PICK UP ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EVEN WITH THIS PUSH OF MOISTURE... SOME AREAS
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE DRY...WINDY...AND WARM CONDITIONS. THIS
WILL KEEP EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

FIRE WEATHER WILL FINALLY SEE SOME REPRIEVE FRIDAY. THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...PUSHING ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE INTO THE STATE. THIS
SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO
REBOUND RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY WIND WILL STILL BE
A THREAT ON FRIDAY...THOUGH THE REMAINDER OF FIRE WEATHER ELEMENTS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE CRITICAL. THE PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL DIG NEAR
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS
REMAINING OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A STRONG AND UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
ABOUT 6 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE GFS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON
SATURDAY...EXPECT MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS. AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER RIGHT
NOW...MIN RH IS NOT FORECAST TO REACH CRITICAL CRITERIA.
DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING WEST OF THE DIVIDE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO ACTIVITY EAST. A BETTER CHANCE
OF CONVECTION WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE...AS WELL AS NEAR THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. THE BEST SHOT OF PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. 700 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND -3C BY
AROUND 12Z SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE EXTREME WEST/NORTHWEST WHICH
WOULD CORRELATE WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 7000
FEET. HAVE NOT BROUGHT SNOW LEVELS DOWN THAT FAR...AND MODELS SHOW
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION EXITING THE AREA BY THE TIME THE
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

A MAINLY DRY WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
THE ECMWF HINTS AT A WEAK SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
IMPACTING THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. HAVE
ELECTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...BUT LATER SHIFTS MIGHT
NEED TO ADD SOME POPS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IF
THE ECMWF SOLUTION COMES TO FRUITION.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT MANY TERMINAL SITES THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. AFTER 03Z ISOLATED SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH 12Z THURS.
OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS.
OTHERWISE...LLWS WILL BECOME AN INCREASING POSSIBILITY AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS SETTLE IN BY 06Z TONIGHT. AT
THE MOMENT THE TWO MOST LIKELY TERMINALS TO SEE THIS WIND SHEAR ARE
KBPI AND KCPR...BOTH ENDING BY 12Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. AN APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL KEEP INCREASED
SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN WYOMING. MEANWHILE...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PERSIST WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL KEEP JUSTIFICATION FOR THE RED
FLAG WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY RELAX
LATE THURSDAY AS AN APPROACHING NORTHWEST SYSTEM WILL PUSH MORE
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA TO HELP ALLEVIATE THE LOW HUMIDITY. GUSTY
WINDS...HOWEVER...ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR WYZ275>277-279>283-
285-287-289-300-414>416.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...JB
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM




000
FXUS65 KRIW 021708
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1107 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

A FEW WEAK SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING THIS
MORNING...WITH LITTLE TO NO CONSEQUENCE. THE STORY CONTINUES TO BE
CRITICAL FIRE BEHAVIOR. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ABLE TO WARM
TODAY UNDER PERSISTENT LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL AGAIN RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH A WEAK
PUSH OF MOISTURE NOTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS PUSH MAY GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL PICK UP ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EVEN WITH THIS PUSH OF MOISTURE... SOME AREAS
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE DRY...WINDY...AND WARM CONDITIONS. THIS
WILL KEEP EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

FIRE WEATHER WILL FINALLY SEE SOME REPRIEVE FRIDAY. THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...PUSHING ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE INTO THE STATE. THIS
SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO
REBOUND RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY WIND WILL STILL BE
A THREAT ON FRIDAY...THOUGH THE REMAINDER OF FIRE WEATHER ELEMENTS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE CRITICAL. THE PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL DIG NEAR
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS
REMAINING OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A STRONG AND UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
ABOUT 6 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE GFS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON
SATURDAY...EXPECT MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS. AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER RIGHT
NOW...MIN RH IS NOT FORECAST TO REACH CRITICAL CRITERIA.
DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING WEST OF THE DIVIDE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO ACTIVITY EAST. A BETTER CHANCE
OF CONVECTION WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE...AS WELL AS NEAR THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. THE BEST SHOT OF PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. 700 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND -3C BY
AROUND 12Z SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE EXTREME WEST/NORTHWEST WHICH
WOULD CORRELATE WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 7000
FEET. HAVE NOT BROUGHT SNOW LEVELS DOWN THAT FAR...AND MODELS SHOW
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION EXITING THE AREA BY THE TIME THE
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

A MAINLY DRY WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
THE ECMWF HINTS AT A WEAK SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
IMPACTING THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. HAVE
ELECTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...BUT LATER SHIFTS MIGHT
NEED TO ADD SOME POPS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IF
THE ECMWF SOLUTION COMES TO FRUITION.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT MANY TERMINAL SITES THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. AFTER 03Z ISOLATED SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH 12Z THURS.
OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS.
OTHERWISE...LLWS WILL BECOME AN INCREASING POSSIBILITY AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS SETTLE IN BY 06Z TONIGHT. AT
THE MOMENT THE TWO MOST LIKELY TERMINALS TO SEE THIS WIND SHEAR ARE
KBPI AND KCPR...BOTH ENDING BY 12Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. AN APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL KEEP INCREASED
SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN WYOMING. MEANWHILE...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PERSIST WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL KEEP JUSTIFICATION FOR THE RED
FLAG WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY RELAX
LATE THURSDAY AS AN APPROACHING NORTHWEST SYSTEM WILL PUSH MORE
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA TO HELP ALLEVIATE THE LOW HUMIDITY. GUSTY
WINDS...HOWEVER...ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR WYZ275>277-279>283-
285-287-289-300-414>416.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...JB
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM




000
FXUS65 KRIW 021708
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1107 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

A FEW WEAK SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING THIS
MORNING...WITH LITTLE TO NO CONSEQUENCE. THE STORY CONTINUES TO BE
CRITICAL FIRE BEHAVIOR. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ABLE TO WARM
TODAY UNDER PERSISTENT LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL AGAIN RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH A WEAK
PUSH OF MOISTURE NOTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS PUSH MAY GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL PICK UP ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EVEN WITH THIS PUSH OF MOISTURE... SOME AREAS
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE DRY...WINDY...AND WARM CONDITIONS. THIS
WILL KEEP EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

FIRE WEATHER WILL FINALLY SEE SOME REPRIEVE FRIDAY. THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...PUSHING ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE INTO THE STATE. THIS
SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO
REBOUND RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY WIND WILL STILL BE
A THREAT ON FRIDAY...THOUGH THE REMAINDER OF FIRE WEATHER ELEMENTS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE CRITICAL. THE PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL DIG NEAR
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS
REMAINING OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A STRONG AND UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
ABOUT 6 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE GFS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON
SATURDAY...EXPECT MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS. AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER RIGHT
NOW...MIN RH IS NOT FORECAST TO REACH CRITICAL CRITERIA.
DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING WEST OF THE DIVIDE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO ACTIVITY EAST. A BETTER CHANCE
OF CONVECTION WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE...AS WELL AS NEAR THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. THE BEST SHOT OF PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. 700 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND -3C BY
AROUND 12Z SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE EXTREME WEST/NORTHWEST WHICH
WOULD CORRELATE WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 7000
FEET. HAVE NOT BROUGHT SNOW LEVELS DOWN THAT FAR...AND MODELS SHOW
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION EXITING THE AREA BY THE TIME THE
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

A MAINLY DRY WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
THE ECMWF HINTS AT A WEAK SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
IMPACTING THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. HAVE
ELECTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...BUT LATER SHIFTS MIGHT
NEED TO ADD SOME POPS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IF
THE ECMWF SOLUTION COMES TO FRUITION.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT MANY TERMINAL SITES THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. AFTER 03Z ISOLATED SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH 12Z THURS.
OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS.
OTHERWISE...LLWS WILL BECOME AN INCREASING POSSIBILITY AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS SETTLE IN BY 06Z TONIGHT. AT
THE MOMENT THE TWO MOST LIKELY TERMINALS TO SEE THIS WIND SHEAR ARE
KBPI AND KCPR...BOTH ENDING BY 12Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. AN APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL KEEP INCREASED
SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN WYOMING. MEANWHILE...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PERSIST WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL KEEP JUSTIFICATION FOR THE RED
FLAG WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY RELAX
LATE THURSDAY AS AN APPROACHING NORTHWEST SYSTEM WILL PUSH MORE
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA TO HELP ALLEVIATE THE LOW HUMIDITY. GUSTY
WINDS...HOWEVER...ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR WYZ275>277-279>283-
285-287-289-300-414>416.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...JB
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM




000
FXUS65 KRIW 021708
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1107 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

A FEW WEAK SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING THIS
MORNING...WITH LITTLE TO NO CONSEQUENCE. THE STORY CONTINUES TO BE
CRITICAL FIRE BEHAVIOR. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ABLE TO WARM
TODAY UNDER PERSISTENT LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL AGAIN RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH A WEAK
PUSH OF MOISTURE NOTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS PUSH MAY GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL PICK UP ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EVEN WITH THIS PUSH OF MOISTURE... SOME AREAS
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE DRY...WINDY...AND WARM CONDITIONS. THIS
WILL KEEP EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

FIRE WEATHER WILL FINALLY SEE SOME REPRIEVE FRIDAY. THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...PUSHING ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE INTO THE STATE. THIS
SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO
REBOUND RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY WIND WILL STILL BE
A THREAT ON FRIDAY...THOUGH THE REMAINDER OF FIRE WEATHER ELEMENTS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE CRITICAL. THE PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL DIG NEAR
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS
REMAINING OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A STRONG AND UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
ABOUT 6 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE GFS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON
SATURDAY...EXPECT MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS. AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER RIGHT
NOW...MIN RH IS NOT FORECAST TO REACH CRITICAL CRITERIA.
DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING WEST OF THE DIVIDE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO ACTIVITY EAST. A BETTER CHANCE
OF CONVECTION WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE...AS WELL AS NEAR THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. THE BEST SHOT OF PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. 700 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND -3C BY
AROUND 12Z SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE EXTREME WEST/NORTHWEST WHICH
WOULD CORRELATE WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 7000
FEET. HAVE NOT BROUGHT SNOW LEVELS DOWN THAT FAR...AND MODELS SHOW
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION EXITING THE AREA BY THE TIME THE
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

A MAINLY DRY WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
THE ECMWF HINTS AT A WEAK SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
IMPACTING THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. HAVE
ELECTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...BUT LATER SHIFTS MIGHT
NEED TO ADD SOME POPS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IF
THE ECMWF SOLUTION COMES TO FRUITION.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT MANY TERMINAL SITES THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. AFTER 03Z ISOLATED SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH 12Z THURS.
OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS.
OTHERWISE...LLWS WILL BECOME AN INCREASING POSSIBILITY AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS SETTLE IN BY 06Z TONIGHT. AT
THE MOMENT THE TWO MOST LIKELY TERMINALS TO SEE THIS WIND SHEAR ARE
KBPI AND KCPR...BOTH ENDING BY 12Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. AN APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL KEEP INCREASED
SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN WYOMING. MEANWHILE...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PERSIST WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL KEEP JUSTIFICATION FOR THE RED
FLAG WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY RELAX
LATE THURSDAY AS AN APPROACHING NORTHWEST SYSTEM WILL PUSH MORE
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA TO HELP ALLEVIATE THE LOW HUMIDITY. GUSTY
WINDS...HOWEVER...ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR WYZ275>277-279>283-
285-287-289-300-414>416.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...JB
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM




000
FXUS65 KRIW 021708
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1107 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

A FEW WEAK SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING THIS
MORNING...WITH LITTLE TO NO CONSEQUENCE. THE STORY CONTINUES TO BE
CRITICAL FIRE BEHAVIOR. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ABLE TO WARM
TODAY UNDER PERSISTENT LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL AGAIN RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH A WEAK
PUSH OF MOISTURE NOTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS PUSH MAY GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL PICK UP ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EVEN WITH THIS PUSH OF MOISTURE... SOME AREAS
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE DRY...WINDY...AND WARM CONDITIONS. THIS
WILL KEEP EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

FIRE WEATHER WILL FINALLY SEE SOME REPRIEVE FRIDAY. THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...PUSHING ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE INTO THE STATE. THIS
SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO
REBOUND RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY WIND WILL STILL BE
A THREAT ON FRIDAY...THOUGH THE REMAINDER OF FIRE WEATHER ELEMENTS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE CRITICAL. THE PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL DIG NEAR
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS
REMAINING OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A STRONG AND UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
ABOUT 6 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE GFS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON
SATURDAY...EXPECT MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS. AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER RIGHT
NOW...MIN RH IS NOT FORECAST TO REACH CRITICAL CRITERIA.
DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING WEST OF THE DIVIDE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO ACTIVITY EAST. A BETTER CHANCE
OF CONVECTION WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE...AS WELL AS NEAR THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. THE BEST SHOT OF PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. 700 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND -3C BY
AROUND 12Z SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE EXTREME WEST/NORTHWEST WHICH
WOULD CORRELATE WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 7000
FEET. HAVE NOT BROUGHT SNOW LEVELS DOWN THAT FAR...AND MODELS SHOW
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION EXITING THE AREA BY THE TIME THE
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

A MAINLY DRY WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
THE ECMWF HINTS AT A WEAK SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
IMPACTING THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. HAVE
ELECTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...BUT LATER SHIFTS MIGHT
NEED TO ADD SOME POPS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IF
THE ECMWF SOLUTION COMES TO FRUITION.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT MANY TERMINAL SITES THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. AFTER 03Z ISOLATED SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH 12Z THURS.
OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS.
OTHERWISE...LLWS WILL BECOME AN INCREASING POSSIBILITY AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS SETTLE IN BY 06Z TONIGHT. AT
THE MOMENT THE TWO MOST LIKELY TERMINALS TO SEE THIS WIND SHEAR ARE
KBPI AND KCPR...BOTH ENDING BY 12Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. AN APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL KEEP INCREASED
SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN WYOMING. MEANWHILE...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PERSIST WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL KEEP JUSTIFICATION FOR THE RED
FLAG WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY RELAX
LATE THURSDAY AS AN APPROACHING NORTHWEST SYSTEM WILL PUSH MORE
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA TO HELP ALLEVIATE THE LOW HUMIDITY. GUSTY
WINDS...HOWEVER...ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR WYZ275>277-279>283-
285-287-289-300-414>416.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...JB
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM



000
FXUS63 KUNR 021650
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1050 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NW MT INTO
NERN WY. AN AREA OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS IS NOTED OVER NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE.

THE SURFACE TROUGH IN WYOMING WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TODAY
WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS CREATING VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
THIS AFTN ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. THE WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. LATEST NAM
RUN SHOWS DIURNAL HEATING OVERCOMING THE CAPPING INVERSION OVER
PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTN...HOWEVER
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE SO EXPECT ONLY A BRIEF INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY.
DEWPOINTS AND RH ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON THURSDAY
AFTN...ESP OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AS SRLY SFC WINDS MAY BE ABLE
TO PUSH INCREASED LL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF SWRN AND SC SD ON THURSDAY AFTN WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE INCREASES MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

MODELS ARE HAVING A SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TIME FIGURING
OUT THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE PAC NW UPPER WAVE. STRONG UPPER LOW
WILL CROSS THE PAC NW FRIDAY...THEN NEVADA TO THE NRN ROCKIES SAT.
UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL GO NEG TILT SUN OVER ERN MT/WRN ND. CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE LATER FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS AS BROAD FORCING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT
IS THE PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO ND/CANADA
SUN NIGHT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL QUICKLY END SUNDAY...WITH BELOW
AVG TEMPS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 1049 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015
VERY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NERN
WYOMING TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 90S WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO 8 TO 15 PERCENT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY OVER SRN CAMPBELL COUNTY SO WILL KEEP THE
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...POJORLIE
FIRE WEATHER...10




000
FXUS63 KUNR 021650
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1050 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NW MT INTO
NERN WY. AN AREA OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS IS NOTED OVER NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE.

THE SURFACE TROUGH IN WYOMING WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TODAY
WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS CREATING VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
THIS AFTN ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. THE WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. LATEST NAM
RUN SHOWS DIURNAL HEATING OVERCOMING THE CAPPING INVERSION OVER
PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTN...HOWEVER
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE SO EXPECT ONLY A BRIEF INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY.
DEWPOINTS AND RH ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON THURSDAY
AFTN...ESP OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AS SRLY SFC WINDS MAY BE ABLE
TO PUSH INCREASED LL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF SWRN AND SC SD ON THURSDAY AFTN WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE INCREASES MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

MODELS ARE HAVING A SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TIME FIGURING
OUT THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE PAC NW UPPER WAVE. STRONG UPPER LOW
WILL CROSS THE PAC NW FRIDAY...THEN NEVADA TO THE NRN ROCKIES SAT.
UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL GO NEG TILT SUN OVER ERN MT/WRN ND. CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE LATER FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS AS BROAD FORCING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT
IS THE PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO ND/CANADA
SUN NIGHT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL QUICKLY END SUNDAY...WITH BELOW
AVG TEMPS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 1049 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015
VERY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NERN
WYOMING TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 90S WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO 8 TO 15 PERCENT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY OVER SRN CAMPBELL COUNTY SO WILL KEEP THE
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...POJORLIE
FIRE WEATHER...10



000
FXUS65 KCYS 021619
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1019 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 1015 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TODAY FORECAST. DECREASED CLOUD COVER FOR
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SHOULD SEE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO BEGINNING TO MOVE
INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
ON THE LOW SIDE BUT MAY SEE A FEW DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD DIE OFF AS IT MOVES
OFF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

TODAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG INTERSTATE 25. THOUGH WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM OVER THE
SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE...IT WILL BE DRY.

TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS FROM OUR SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.

THURSDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES INTO COLORADO AND OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH THE LOWER AND MID LEVEL SATURATING EVEN
FURTHER. FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH POPS OVER OUR SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN
RANGES NEAR THE COLORADO BORDERS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS INTO THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW AND
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN REGION. THERE WILL BE A PRETTY STRONG JET
STREAM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR OVER THE AREA...WHICH MAY
INFLUENCE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME CONVECTION ON SATURDAY EVEN
THOUGH INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL. SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA...BUT DO NOT SEE A CLEARLY DEFINED COLD FRONT
UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
WYOMING. KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S ON
SATURDAY.

MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR SUNDAY...AND ALL ARE
SHOWING A NEGATIVELY TILTED OPEN WAVE THROUGH LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY. THE GEM IS THE LEAST PROGRESSIVE
COMPARED TO THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT STILL PRETTY SIMILAR. IF THIS
SOLUTION VERIFIES...MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY BUT VERY
WINDY ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE NORTHWARD STORM TRACK. LOWER POP BELOW
10 PERCENT ON SUNDAY...BUT INCREASED WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
GUSTS OVER 50 MPH POSSIBLE DUE TO A 110 KT JET MAX MOVING ACROSS
WYOMING AND MONTANA.

MODELS THEN INDICATE NEAR ZONAL FLOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS HINTING
TOWARDS A MAJOR COLD FRONT DIGGING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA TERMINALS TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM KRWL TO KCYS...WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AT TIMES. FURTHER EAST...WINDS WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE BELOW 10 PERCENT FOR TODAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY ESPECIALLY OVER OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN DISTRICT WHERE LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH AT
TIMES. LOW HUMIDITIES AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF A RAWLINS TO
LUSK LINE WITH GUSTY WINDS OVER 25 MPH...THUS WE MAY NEED ANOTHER
FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AT SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. CURRENT RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN FAHRENHEIT...

RAWLINS 89/1995 LARAMIE 87/2013 CHEYENNE 92/1947 CHADRON 101/1960

ALLIANCE 97/2001 SCOTTSBLUFF 98/1983  SIDNEY 99/1983

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301>304-306-
     308.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN
CLIMATE...RUBIN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 021619
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1019 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 1015 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TODAY FORECAST. DECREASED CLOUD COVER FOR
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SHOULD SEE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO BEGINNING TO MOVE
INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
ON THE LOW SIDE BUT MAY SEE A FEW DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD DIE OFF AS IT MOVES
OFF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

TODAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG INTERSTATE 25. THOUGH WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM OVER THE
SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE...IT WILL BE DRY.

TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS FROM OUR SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.

THURSDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES INTO COLORADO AND OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH THE LOWER AND MID LEVEL SATURATING EVEN
FURTHER. FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH POPS OVER OUR SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN
RANGES NEAR THE COLORADO BORDERS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS INTO THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW AND
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN REGION. THERE WILL BE A PRETTY STRONG JET
STREAM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR OVER THE AREA...WHICH MAY
INFLUENCE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME CONVECTION ON SATURDAY EVEN
THOUGH INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL. SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA...BUT DO NOT SEE A CLEARLY DEFINED COLD FRONT
UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
WYOMING. KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S ON
SATURDAY.

MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR SUNDAY...AND ALL ARE
SHOWING A NEGATIVELY TILTED OPEN WAVE THROUGH LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY. THE GEM IS THE LEAST PROGRESSIVE
COMPARED TO THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT STILL PRETTY SIMILAR. IF THIS
SOLUTION VERIFIES...MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY BUT VERY
WINDY ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE NORTHWARD STORM TRACK. LOWER POP BELOW
10 PERCENT ON SUNDAY...BUT INCREASED WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
GUSTS OVER 50 MPH POSSIBLE DUE TO A 110 KT JET MAX MOVING ACROSS
WYOMING AND MONTANA.

MODELS THEN INDICATE NEAR ZONAL FLOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS HINTING
TOWARDS A MAJOR COLD FRONT DIGGING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA TERMINALS TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM KRWL TO KCYS...WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AT TIMES. FURTHER EAST...WINDS WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE BELOW 10 PERCENT FOR TODAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY ESPECIALLY OVER OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN DISTRICT WHERE LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH AT
TIMES. LOW HUMIDITIES AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF A RAWLINS TO
LUSK LINE WITH GUSTY WINDS OVER 25 MPH...THUS WE MAY NEED ANOTHER
FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AT SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. CURRENT RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN FAHRENHEIT...

RAWLINS 89/1995 LARAMIE 87/2013 CHEYENNE 92/1947 CHADRON 101/1960

ALLIANCE 97/2001 SCOTTSBLUFF 98/1983  SIDNEY 99/1983

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301>304-306-
     308.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN
CLIMATE...RUBIN



000
FXUS65 KCYS 021619
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1019 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 1015 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TODAY FORECAST. DECREASED CLOUD COVER FOR
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SHOULD SEE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO BEGINNING TO MOVE
INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
ON THE LOW SIDE BUT MAY SEE A FEW DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD DIE OFF AS IT MOVES
OFF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

TODAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG INTERSTATE 25. THOUGH WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM OVER THE
SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE...IT WILL BE DRY.

TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS FROM OUR SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.

THURSDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES INTO COLORADO AND OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH THE LOWER AND MID LEVEL SATURATING EVEN
FURTHER. FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH POPS OVER OUR SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN
RANGES NEAR THE COLORADO BORDERS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS INTO THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW AND
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN REGION. THERE WILL BE A PRETTY STRONG JET
STREAM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR OVER THE AREA...WHICH MAY
INFLUENCE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME CONVECTION ON SATURDAY EVEN
THOUGH INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL. SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA...BUT DO NOT SEE A CLEARLY DEFINED COLD FRONT
UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
WYOMING. KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S ON
SATURDAY.

MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR SUNDAY...AND ALL ARE
SHOWING A NEGATIVELY TILTED OPEN WAVE THROUGH LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY. THE GEM IS THE LEAST PROGRESSIVE
COMPARED TO THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT STILL PRETTY SIMILAR. IF THIS
SOLUTION VERIFIES...MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY BUT VERY
WINDY ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE NORTHWARD STORM TRACK. LOWER POP BELOW
10 PERCENT ON SUNDAY...BUT INCREASED WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
GUSTS OVER 50 MPH POSSIBLE DUE TO A 110 KT JET MAX MOVING ACROSS
WYOMING AND MONTANA.

MODELS THEN INDICATE NEAR ZONAL FLOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS HINTING
TOWARDS A MAJOR COLD FRONT DIGGING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA TERMINALS TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM KRWL TO KCYS...WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AT TIMES. FURTHER EAST...WINDS WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE BELOW 10 PERCENT FOR TODAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY ESPECIALLY OVER OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN DISTRICT WHERE LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH AT
TIMES. LOW HUMIDITIES AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF A RAWLINS TO
LUSK LINE WITH GUSTY WINDS OVER 25 MPH...THUS WE MAY NEED ANOTHER
FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AT SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. CURRENT RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN FAHRENHEIT...

RAWLINS 89/1995 LARAMIE 87/2013 CHEYENNE 92/1947 CHADRON 101/1960

ALLIANCE 97/2001 SCOTTSBLUFF 98/1983  SIDNEY 99/1983

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301>304-306-
     308.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN
CLIMATE...RUBIN



000
FXUS65 KCYS 021619
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1019 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 1015 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TODAY FORECAST. DECREASED CLOUD COVER FOR
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SHOULD SEE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO BEGINNING TO MOVE
INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
ON THE LOW SIDE BUT MAY SEE A FEW DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD DIE OFF AS IT MOVES
OFF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

TODAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG INTERSTATE 25. THOUGH WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM OVER THE
SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE...IT WILL BE DRY.

TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS FROM OUR SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.

THURSDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES INTO COLORADO AND OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH THE LOWER AND MID LEVEL SATURATING EVEN
FURTHER. FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH POPS OVER OUR SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN
RANGES NEAR THE COLORADO BORDERS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS INTO THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW AND
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN REGION. THERE WILL BE A PRETTY STRONG JET
STREAM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR OVER THE AREA...WHICH MAY
INFLUENCE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME CONVECTION ON SATURDAY EVEN
THOUGH INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL. SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA...BUT DO NOT SEE A CLEARLY DEFINED COLD FRONT
UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
WYOMING. KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S ON
SATURDAY.

MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR SUNDAY...AND ALL ARE
SHOWING A NEGATIVELY TILTED OPEN WAVE THROUGH LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY. THE GEM IS THE LEAST PROGRESSIVE
COMPARED TO THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT STILL PRETTY SIMILAR. IF THIS
SOLUTION VERIFIES...MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY BUT VERY
WINDY ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE NORTHWARD STORM TRACK. LOWER POP BELOW
10 PERCENT ON SUNDAY...BUT INCREASED WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
GUSTS OVER 50 MPH POSSIBLE DUE TO A 110 KT JET MAX MOVING ACROSS
WYOMING AND MONTANA.

MODELS THEN INDICATE NEAR ZONAL FLOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS HINTING
TOWARDS A MAJOR COLD FRONT DIGGING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA TERMINALS TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM KRWL TO KCYS...WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AT TIMES. FURTHER EAST...WINDS WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE BELOW 10 PERCENT FOR TODAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY ESPECIALLY OVER OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN DISTRICT WHERE LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH AT
TIMES. LOW HUMIDITIES AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF A RAWLINS TO
LUSK LINE WITH GUSTY WINDS OVER 25 MPH...THUS WE MAY NEED ANOTHER
FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AT SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. CURRENT RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN FAHRENHEIT...

RAWLINS 89/1995 LARAMIE 87/2013 CHEYENNE 92/1947 CHADRON 101/1960

ALLIANCE 97/2001 SCOTTSBLUFF 98/1983  SIDNEY 99/1983

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301>304-306-
     308.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN
CLIMATE...RUBIN




000
FXUS63 KUNR 021105
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
505 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NW MT INTO
NERN WY. AN AREA OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS IS NOTED OVER NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE.

THE SURFACE TROUGH IN WYOMING WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TODAY
WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS CREATING VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
THIS AFTN ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. THE WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. LATEST NAM
RUN SHOWS DIURNAL HEATING OVERCOMING THE CAPPING INVERSION OVER
PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTN...HOWEVER
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE SO EXPECT ONLY A BRIEF INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY.
DEWPOINTS AND RH ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON THURSDAY
AFTN...ESP OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AS SRLY SFC WINDS MAY BE ABLE
TO PUSH INCREASED LL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF SWRN AND SC SD ON THURSDAY AFTN WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE INCREASES MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

MODELS ARE HAVING A SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TIME FIGURING
OUT THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE PAC NW UPPER WAVE. STRONG UPPER LOW
WILL CROSS THE PAC NW FRIDAY...THEN NEVADA TO THE NRN ROCKIES SAT.
UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL GO NEG TILT SUN OVER ERN MT/WRN ND. CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE LATER FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS AS BROAD FORCING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT
IS THE PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO ND/CANADA
SUN NIGHT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL QUICKLY END SUNDAY...WITH BELOW
AVG TEMPS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 505 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015
VERY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NERN
WYOMING TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 90S WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO 8 TO 15 PERCENT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY OVER SRN CAMPBELL COUNTY SO WILL KEEP THE
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR WYZ259.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...10



000
FXUS63 KUNR 021105
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
505 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NW MT INTO
NERN WY. AN AREA OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS IS NOTED OVER NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE.

THE SURFACE TROUGH IN WYOMING WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TODAY
WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS CREATING VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
THIS AFTN ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. THE WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. LATEST NAM
RUN SHOWS DIURNAL HEATING OVERCOMING THE CAPPING INVERSION OVER
PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTN...HOWEVER
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE SO EXPECT ONLY A BRIEF INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY.
DEWPOINTS AND RH ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON THURSDAY
AFTN...ESP OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AS SRLY SFC WINDS MAY BE ABLE
TO PUSH INCREASED LL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF SWRN AND SC SD ON THURSDAY AFTN WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE INCREASES MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

MODELS ARE HAVING A SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TIME FIGURING
OUT THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE PAC NW UPPER WAVE. STRONG UPPER LOW
WILL CROSS THE PAC NW FRIDAY...THEN NEVADA TO THE NRN ROCKIES SAT.
UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL GO NEG TILT SUN OVER ERN MT/WRN ND. CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE LATER FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS AS BROAD FORCING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT
IS THE PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO ND/CANADA
SUN NIGHT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL QUICKLY END SUNDAY...WITH BELOW
AVG TEMPS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 505 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015
VERY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NERN
WYOMING TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 90S WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO 8 TO 15 PERCENT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY OVER SRN CAMPBELL COUNTY SO WILL KEEP THE
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR WYZ259.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...10




000
FXUS63 KUNR 021105
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
505 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NW MT INTO
NERN WY. AN AREA OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS IS NOTED OVER NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE.

THE SURFACE TROUGH IN WYOMING WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TODAY
WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS CREATING VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
THIS AFTN ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. THE WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. LATEST NAM
RUN SHOWS DIURNAL HEATING OVERCOMING THE CAPPING INVERSION OVER
PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTN...HOWEVER
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE SO EXPECT ONLY A BRIEF INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY.
DEWPOINTS AND RH ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON THURSDAY
AFTN...ESP OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AS SRLY SFC WINDS MAY BE ABLE
TO PUSH INCREASED LL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF SWRN AND SC SD ON THURSDAY AFTN WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE INCREASES MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

MODELS ARE HAVING A SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TIME FIGURING
OUT THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE PAC NW UPPER WAVE. STRONG UPPER LOW
WILL CROSS THE PAC NW FRIDAY...THEN NEVADA TO THE NRN ROCKIES SAT.
UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL GO NEG TILT SUN OVER ERN MT/WRN ND. CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE LATER FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS AS BROAD FORCING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT
IS THE PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO ND/CANADA
SUN NIGHT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL QUICKLY END SUNDAY...WITH BELOW
AVG TEMPS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 505 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015
VERY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NERN
WYOMING TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 90S WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO 8 TO 15 PERCENT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY OVER SRN CAMPBELL COUNTY SO WILL KEEP THE
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR WYZ259.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...10



000
FXUS63 KUNR 021105
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
505 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NW MT INTO
NERN WY. AN AREA OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS IS NOTED OVER NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE.

THE SURFACE TROUGH IN WYOMING WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TODAY
WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS CREATING VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
THIS AFTN ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. THE WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. LATEST NAM
RUN SHOWS DIURNAL HEATING OVERCOMING THE CAPPING INVERSION OVER
PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTN...HOWEVER
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE SO EXPECT ONLY A BRIEF INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY.
DEWPOINTS AND RH ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON THURSDAY
AFTN...ESP OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AS SRLY SFC WINDS MAY BE ABLE
TO PUSH INCREASED LL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF SWRN AND SC SD ON THURSDAY AFTN WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE INCREASES MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

MODELS ARE HAVING A SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TIME FIGURING
OUT THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE PAC NW UPPER WAVE. STRONG UPPER LOW
WILL CROSS THE PAC NW FRIDAY...THEN NEVADA TO THE NRN ROCKIES SAT.
UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL GO NEG TILT SUN OVER ERN MT/WRN ND. CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE LATER FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS AS BROAD FORCING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT
IS THE PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO ND/CANADA
SUN NIGHT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL QUICKLY END SUNDAY...WITH BELOW
AVG TEMPS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 505 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015
VERY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NERN
WYOMING TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 90S WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO 8 TO 15 PERCENT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY OVER SRN CAMPBELL COUNTY SO WILL KEEP THE
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR WYZ259.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...10



000
FXUS63 KUNR 021105
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
505 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NW MT INTO
NERN WY. AN AREA OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS IS NOTED OVER NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE.

THE SURFACE TROUGH IN WYOMING WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TODAY
WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS CREATING VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
THIS AFTN ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. THE WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. LATEST NAM
RUN SHOWS DIURNAL HEATING OVERCOMING THE CAPPING INVERSION OVER
PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTN...HOWEVER
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE SO EXPECT ONLY A BRIEF INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY.
DEWPOINTS AND RH ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON THURSDAY
AFTN...ESP OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AS SRLY SFC WINDS MAY BE ABLE
TO PUSH INCREASED LL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF SWRN AND SC SD ON THURSDAY AFTN WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE INCREASES MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

MODELS ARE HAVING A SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TIME FIGURING
OUT THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE PAC NW UPPER WAVE. STRONG UPPER LOW
WILL CROSS THE PAC NW FRIDAY...THEN NEVADA TO THE NRN ROCKIES SAT.
UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL GO NEG TILT SUN OVER ERN MT/WRN ND. CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE LATER FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS AS BROAD FORCING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT
IS THE PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO ND/CANADA
SUN NIGHT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL QUICKLY END SUNDAY...WITH BELOW
AVG TEMPS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 505 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015
VERY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NERN
WYOMING TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 90S WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO 8 TO 15 PERCENT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY OVER SRN CAMPBELL COUNTY SO WILL KEEP THE
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR WYZ259.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...10



000
FXUS63 KUNR 021105
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
505 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NW MT INTO
NERN WY. AN AREA OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS IS NOTED OVER NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE.

THE SURFACE TROUGH IN WYOMING WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TODAY
WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS CREATING VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
THIS AFTN ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. THE WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. LATEST NAM
RUN SHOWS DIURNAL HEATING OVERCOMING THE CAPPING INVERSION OVER
PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTN...HOWEVER
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE SO EXPECT ONLY A BRIEF INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY.
DEWPOINTS AND RH ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON THURSDAY
AFTN...ESP OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AS SRLY SFC WINDS MAY BE ABLE
TO PUSH INCREASED LL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF SWRN AND SC SD ON THURSDAY AFTN WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE INCREASES MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

MODELS ARE HAVING A SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TIME FIGURING
OUT THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE PAC NW UPPER WAVE. STRONG UPPER LOW
WILL CROSS THE PAC NW FRIDAY...THEN NEVADA TO THE NRN ROCKIES SAT.
UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL GO NEG TILT SUN OVER ERN MT/WRN ND. CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE LATER FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS AS BROAD FORCING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT
IS THE PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO ND/CANADA
SUN NIGHT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL QUICKLY END SUNDAY...WITH BELOW
AVG TEMPS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 505 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015
VERY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NERN
WYOMING TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 90S WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO 8 TO 15 PERCENT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY OVER SRN CAMPBELL COUNTY SO WILL KEEP THE
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR WYZ259.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...10



000
FXUS65 KRIW 021000
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
400 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

A FEW WEAK SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING THIS
MORNING...WITH LITTLE TO NO CONSEQUENCE. THE STORY CONTINUES TO BE
CRITICAL FIRE BEHAVIOR. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ABLE TO WARM
TODAY UNDER PERSISTENT LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL AGAIN RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH A WEAK
PUSH OF MOISTURE NOTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS PUSH MAY GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL PICK UP ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EVEN WITH THIS PUSH OF MOISTURE... SOME AREAS
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE DRY...WINDY...AND WARM CONDITIONS. THIS
WILL KEEP EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

FIRE WEATHER WILL FINALLY SEE SOME REPRIEVE FRIDAY. THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...PUSHING ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE INTO THE STATE. THIS
SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO
REBOUND RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY WIND WILL STILL BE
A THREAT ON FRIDAY...THOUGH THE REMAINDER OF FIRE WEATHER ELEMENTS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE CRITICAL. THE PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL DIG NEAR
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS
REMAINING OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A STRONG AND UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
ABOUT 6 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE GFS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON
SATURDAY...EXPECT MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS. AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER RIGHT
NOW...MIN RH IS NOT FORECAST TO REACH CRITICAL CRITERIA.
DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING WEST OF THE DIVIDE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO ACTIVITY EAST. A BETTER CHANCE
OF CONVECTION WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE...AS WELL AS NEAR THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. THE BEST SHOT OF PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. 700 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND -3C BY
AROUND 12Z SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE EXTREME WEST/NORTHWEST WHICH
WOULD CORRELATE WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 7000
FEET. HAVE NOT BROUGHT SNOW LEVELS DOWN THAT FAR...AND MODELS SHOW
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION EXITING THE AREA BY THE TIME THE
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

A MAINLY DRY WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
THE ECMWF HINTS AT A WEAK SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
IMPACTING THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. HAVE
ELECTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...BUT LATER SHIFTS MIGHT
NEED TO ADD SOME POPS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IF
THE ECMWF SOLUTION COMES TO FRUITION.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT MANY TERMINAL SITES TODAY FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WY THROUGH 12Z THURS. OUTFLOW
WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. AN APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL KEEP INCREASED
SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN WYOMING. MEANWHILE...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PERSIST WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL KEEP JUSTIFICATION FOR THE RED
FLAG WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY RELAX
LATE THURSDAY AS AN APPROACHING NORTHWEST SYSTEM WILL PUSH MORE
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA TO HELP ALLEVIATE THE LOW HUMIDITY. GUSTY
WINDS...HOWEVER...ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR WYZ275>277-279>283-
285-287-289-300-414>416.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM




000
FXUS65 KRIW 021000
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
400 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

A FEW WEAK SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING THIS
MORNING...WITH LITTLE TO NO CONSEQUENCE. THE STORY CONTINUES TO BE
CRITICAL FIRE BEHAVIOR. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ABLE TO WARM
TODAY UNDER PERSISTENT LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL AGAIN RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH A WEAK
PUSH OF MOISTURE NOTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS PUSH MAY GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL PICK UP ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EVEN WITH THIS PUSH OF MOISTURE... SOME AREAS
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE DRY...WINDY...AND WARM CONDITIONS. THIS
WILL KEEP EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

FIRE WEATHER WILL FINALLY SEE SOME REPRIEVE FRIDAY. THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...PUSHING ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE INTO THE STATE. THIS
SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO
REBOUND RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY WIND WILL STILL BE
A THREAT ON FRIDAY...THOUGH THE REMAINDER OF FIRE WEATHER ELEMENTS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE CRITICAL. THE PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL DIG NEAR
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS
REMAINING OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A STRONG AND UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
ABOUT 6 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE GFS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON
SATURDAY...EXPECT MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS. AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER RIGHT
NOW...MIN RH IS NOT FORECAST TO REACH CRITICAL CRITERIA.
DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING WEST OF THE DIVIDE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO ACTIVITY EAST. A BETTER CHANCE
OF CONVECTION WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE...AS WELL AS NEAR THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. THE BEST SHOT OF PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. 700 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND -3C BY
AROUND 12Z SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE EXTREME WEST/NORTHWEST WHICH
WOULD CORRELATE WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 7000
FEET. HAVE NOT BROUGHT SNOW LEVELS DOWN THAT FAR...AND MODELS SHOW
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION EXITING THE AREA BY THE TIME THE
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

A MAINLY DRY WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
THE ECMWF HINTS AT A WEAK SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
IMPACTING THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. HAVE
ELECTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...BUT LATER SHIFTS MIGHT
NEED TO ADD SOME POPS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IF
THE ECMWF SOLUTION COMES TO FRUITION.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT MANY TERMINAL SITES TODAY FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WY THROUGH 12Z THURS. OUTFLOW
WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. AN APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL KEEP INCREASED
SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN WYOMING. MEANWHILE...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PERSIST WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL KEEP JUSTIFICATION FOR THE RED
FLAG WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY RELAX
LATE THURSDAY AS AN APPROACHING NORTHWEST SYSTEM WILL PUSH MORE
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA TO HELP ALLEVIATE THE LOW HUMIDITY. GUSTY
WINDS...HOWEVER...ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR WYZ275>277-279>283-
285-287-289-300-414>416.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM



000
FXUS65 KRIW 021000
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
400 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

A FEW WEAK SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING THIS
MORNING...WITH LITTLE TO NO CONSEQUENCE. THE STORY CONTINUES TO BE
CRITICAL FIRE BEHAVIOR. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ABLE TO WARM
TODAY UNDER PERSISTENT LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL AGAIN RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH A WEAK
PUSH OF MOISTURE NOTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS PUSH MAY GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL PICK UP ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EVEN WITH THIS PUSH OF MOISTURE... SOME AREAS
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE DRY...WINDY...AND WARM CONDITIONS. THIS
WILL KEEP EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

FIRE WEATHER WILL FINALLY SEE SOME REPRIEVE FRIDAY. THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...PUSHING ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE INTO THE STATE. THIS
SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO
REBOUND RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY WIND WILL STILL BE
A THREAT ON FRIDAY...THOUGH THE REMAINDER OF FIRE WEATHER ELEMENTS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE CRITICAL. THE PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL DIG NEAR
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS
REMAINING OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A STRONG AND UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
ABOUT 6 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE GFS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON
SATURDAY...EXPECT MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS. AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER RIGHT
NOW...MIN RH IS NOT FORECAST TO REACH CRITICAL CRITERIA.
DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING WEST OF THE DIVIDE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO ACTIVITY EAST. A BETTER CHANCE
OF CONVECTION WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE...AS WELL AS NEAR THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. THE BEST SHOT OF PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. 700 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND -3C BY
AROUND 12Z SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE EXTREME WEST/NORTHWEST WHICH
WOULD CORRELATE WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 7000
FEET. HAVE NOT BROUGHT SNOW LEVELS DOWN THAT FAR...AND MODELS SHOW
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION EXITING THE AREA BY THE TIME THE
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

A MAINLY DRY WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
THE ECMWF HINTS AT A WEAK SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
IMPACTING THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. HAVE
ELECTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...BUT LATER SHIFTS MIGHT
NEED TO ADD SOME POPS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IF
THE ECMWF SOLUTION COMES TO FRUITION.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT MANY TERMINAL SITES TODAY FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WY THROUGH 12Z THURS. OUTFLOW
WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. AN APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL KEEP INCREASED
SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN WYOMING. MEANWHILE...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PERSIST WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL KEEP JUSTIFICATION FOR THE RED
FLAG WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY RELAX
LATE THURSDAY AS AN APPROACHING NORTHWEST SYSTEM WILL PUSH MORE
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA TO HELP ALLEVIATE THE LOW HUMIDITY. GUSTY
WINDS...HOWEVER...ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR WYZ275>277-279>283-
285-287-289-300-414>416.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM




000
FXUS63 KUNR 020912
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
312 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NW MT INTO
NERN WY. AN AREA OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS IS NOTED OVER NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE.

THE SURFACE TROUGH IN WYOMING WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TODAY
WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS CREATING VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
THIS AFTN ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. THE WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. LATEST NAM
RUN SHOWS DIURNAL HEATING OVERCOMING THE CAPPING INVERSION OVER
PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTN...HOWEVER
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE SO EXPECT ONLY A BRIEF INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY.
DEWPOINTS AND RH ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON THURSDAY
AFTN...ESP OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AS SRLY SFC WINDS MAY BE ABLE
TO PUSH INCREASED LL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF SWRN AND SC SD ON THURSDAY AFTN WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE INCREASES MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

MODELS ARE HAVING A SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TIME FIGURING
OUT THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE PAC NW UPPER WAVE. STRONG UPPER LOW
WILL CROSS THE PAC NW FRIDAY...THEN NEVADA TO THE NRN ROCKIES SAT.
UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL GO NEG TILT SUN OVER ERN MT/WRN ND. CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE LATER FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS AS BROAD FORCING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT
IS THE PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO ND/CANADA
SUN NIGHT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL QUICKLY END SUNDAY...WITH BELOW
AVG TEMPS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015
VERY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NERN
WYOMING TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 90S WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO 8 TO 15 PERCENT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY OVER SRN CAMPBELL COUNTY SO WILL KEEP THE
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING.

&&


.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR WYZ259.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...10




000
FXUS63 KUNR 020912
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
312 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NW MT INTO
NERN WY. AN AREA OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS IS NOTED OVER NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE.

THE SURFACE TROUGH IN WYOMING WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TODAY
WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS CREATING VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
THIS AFTN ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. THE WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. LATEST NAM
RUN SHOWS DIURNAL HEATING OVERCOMING THE CAPPING INVERSION OVER
PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTN...HOWEVER
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE SO EXPECT ONLY A BRIEF INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY.
DEWPOINTS AND RH ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON THURSDAY
AFTN...ESP OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AS SRLY SFC WINDS MAY BE ABLE
TO PUSH INCREASED LL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF SWRN AND SC SD ON THURSDAY AFTN WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE INCREASES MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

MODELS ARE HAVING A SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TIME FIGURING
OUT THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE PAC NW UPPER WAVE. STRONG UPPER LOW
WILL CROSS THE PAC NW FRIDAY...THEN NEVADA TO THE NRN ROCKIES SAT.
UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL GO NEG TILT SUN OVER ERN MT/WRN ND. CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE LATER FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS AS BROAD FORCING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT
IS THE PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO ND/CANADA
SUN NIGHT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL QUICKLY END SUNDAY...WITH BELOW
AVG TEMPS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015
VERY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NERN
WYOMING TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 90S WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO 8 TO 15 PERCENT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY OVER SRN CAMPBELL COUNTY SO WILL KEEP THE
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING.

&&


.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR WYZ259.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...10




000
FXUS63 KUNR 020912
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
312 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NW MT INTO
NERN WY. AN AREA OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS IS NOTED OVER NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE.

THE SURFACE TROUGH IN WYOMING WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TODAY
WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS CREATING VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
THIS AFTN ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. THE WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. LATEST NAM
RUN SHOWS DIURNAL HEATING OVERCOMING THE CAPPING INVERSION OVER
PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTN...HOWEVER
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE SO EXPECT ONLY A BRIEF INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY.
DEWPOINTS AND RH ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON THURSDAY
AFTN...ESP OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AS SRLY SFC WINDS MAY BE ABLE
TO PUSH INCREASED LL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF SWRN AND SC SD ON THURSDAY AFTN WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE INCREASES MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

MODELS ARE HAVING A SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TIME FIGURING
OUT THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE PAC NW UPPER WAVE. STRONG UPPER LOW
WILL CROSS THE PAC NW FRIDAY...THEN NEVADA TO THE NRN ROCKIES SAT.
UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL GO NEG TILT SUN OVER ERN MT/WRN ND. CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE LATER FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS AS BROAD FORCING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT
IS THE PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO ND/CANADA
SUN NIGHT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL QUICKLY END SUNDAY...WITH BELOW
AVG TEMPS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015
VERY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NERN
WYOMING TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 90S WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO 8 TO 15 PERCENT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY OVER SRN CAMPBELL COUNTY SO WILL KEEP THE
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING.

&&


.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR WYZ259.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...10




000
FXUS63 KUNR 020912
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
312 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NW MT INTO
NERN WY. AN AREA OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS IS NOTED OVER NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE.

THE SURFACE TROUGH IN WYOMING WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TODAY
WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS CREATING VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
THIS AFTN ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. THE WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. LATEST NAM
RUN SHOWS DIURNAL HEATING OVERCOMING THE CAPPING INVERSION OVER
PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTN...HOWEVER
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE SO EXPECT ONLY A BRIEF INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY.
DEWPOINTS AND RH ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON THURSDAY
AFTN...ESP OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AS SRLY SFC WINDS MAY BE ABLE
TO PUSH INCREASED LL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF SWRN AND SC SD ON THURSDAY AFTN WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE INCREASES MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

MODELS ARE HAVING A SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TIME FIGURING
OUT THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE PAC NW UPPER WAVE. STRONG UPPER LOW
WILL CROSS THE PAC NW FRIDAY...THEN NEVADA TO THE NRN ROCKIES SAT.
UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL GO NEG TILT SUN OVER ERN MT/WRN ND. CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE LATER FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS AS BROAD FORCING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT
IS THE PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO ND/CANADA
SUN NIGHT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL QUICKLY END SUNDAY...WITH BELOW
AVG TEMPS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015
VERY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NERN
WYOMING TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 90S WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO 8 TO 15 PERCENT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY OVER SRN CAMPBELL COUNTY SO WILL KEEP THE
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING.

&&


.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR WYZ259.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...10




000
FXUS65 KCYS 020910
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
310 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

TODAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG INTERSTATE 25. THOUGH WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM OVER THE
SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE...IT WILL BE DRY.

TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS FROM OUR SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.

THURSDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES INTO COLORADO AND OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH THE LOWER AND MID LEVEL SATURATING EVEN
FURTHER. FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH POPS OVER OUR SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN
RANGES NEAR THE COLORADO BORDERS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS INTO THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW AND
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN REGION. THERE WILL BE A PRETTY STRONG JET
STREAM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR OVER THE AREA...WHICH MAY
INFLUENCE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME CONVECTION ON SATURDAY EVEN
THOUGH INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL. SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA...BUT DO NOT SEE A CLEARLY DEFINED COLD FRONT
UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
WYOMING. KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S ON
SATURDAY.

MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR SUNDAY...AND ALL ARE
SHOWING A NEGATIVELY TILTED OPEN WAVE THROUGH LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY. THE GEM IS THE LEAST PROGRESSIVE
COMPARED TO THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT STILL PRETTY SIMILAR. IF THIS
SOLUTION VERIFIES...MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY BUT VERY
WINDY ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE NORTHWARD STORM TRACK. LOWER POP BELOW
10 PERCENT ON SUNDAY...BUT INCREASED WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
GUSTS OVER 50 MPH POSSIBLE DUE TO A 110 KT JET MAX MOVING ACROSS
WYOMING AND MONTANA.

MODELS THEN INDICATE NEAR ZONAL FLOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS HINTING
TOWARDS A MAJOR COLD FRONT DIGGING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA TERMINALS TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM KRWL TO KCYS...WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AT TIMES. FURTHER EAST...WINDS WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE BELOW 10 PERCENT FOR TODAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY ESPECIALLY OVER OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN DISTRICT WHERE LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH AT
TIMES. LOW HUMIDITIES AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF A RAWLINS TO
LUSK LINE WITH GUSTY WINDS OVER 25 MPH...THUS WE MAY NEED ANOTHER
FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AT SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. CURRENT RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN FAHRENHEIT...

RAWLINS 89/1995 LARAMIE 87/2013 CHEYENNE 92/1947 CHADRON 101/1960

ALLIANCE 97/2001 SCOTTSBLUFF 98/1983  SIDNEY 99/1983

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WYZ301>304-306-308.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN
CLIMATE...RUBIN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 020910
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
310 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

TODAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG INTERSTATE 25. THOUGH WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM OVER THE
SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE...IT WILL BE DRY.

TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS FROM OUR SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.

THURSDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES INTO COLORADO AND OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH THE LOWER AND MID LEVEL SATURATING EVEN
FURTHER. FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH POPS OVER OUR SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN
RANGES NEAR THE COLORADO BORDERS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS INTO THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW AND
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN REGION. THERE WILL BE A PRETTY STRONG JET
STREAM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR OVER THE AREA...WHICH MAY
INFLUENCE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME CONVECTION ON SATURDAY EVEN
THOUGH INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL. SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA...BUT DO NOT SEE A CLEARLY DEFINED COLD FRONT
UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
WYOMING. KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S ON
SATURDAY.

MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR SUNDAY...AND ALL ARE
SHOWING A NEGATIVELY TILTED OPEN WAVE THROUGH LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY. THE GEM IS THE LEAST PROGRESSIVE
COMPARED TO THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT STILL PRETTY SIMILAR. IF THIS
SOLUTION VERIFIES...MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY BUT VERY
WINDY ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE NORTHWARD STORM TRACK. LOWER POP BELOW
10 PERCENT ON SUNDAY...BUT INCREASED WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
GUSTS OVER 50 MPH POSSIBLE DUE TO A 110 KT JET MAX MOVING ACROSS
WYOMING AND MONTANA.

MODELS THEN INDICATE NEAR ZONAL FLOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS HINTING
TOWARDS A MAJOR COLD FRONT DIGGING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA TERMINALS TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM KRWL TO KCYS...WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AT TIMES. FURTHER EAST...WINDS WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE BELOW 10 PERCENT FOR TODAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY ESPECIALLY OVER OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN DISTRICT WHERE LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH AT
TIMES. LOW HUMIDITIES AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF A RAWLINS TO
LUSK LINE WITH GUSTY WINDS OVER 25 MPH...THUS WE MAY NEED ANOTHER
FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AT SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. CURRENT RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN FAHRENHEIT...

RAWLINS 89/1995 LARAMIE 87/2013 CHEYENNE 92/1947 CHADRON 101/1960

ALLIANCE 97/2001 SCOTTSBLUFF 98/1983  SIDNEY 99/1983

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WYZ301>304-306-308.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN
CLIMATE...RUBIN



000
FXUS65 KCYS 020910
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
310 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

TODAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG INTERSTATE 25. THOUGH WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM OVER THE
SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE...IT WILL BE DRY.

TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS FROM OUR SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.

THURSDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES INTO COLORADO AND OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH THE LOWER AND MID LEVEL SATURATING EVEN
FURTHER. FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH POPS OVER OUR SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN
RANGES NEAR THE COLORADO BORDERS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS INTO THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW AND
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN REGION. THERE WILL BE A PRETTY STRONG JET
STREAM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR OVER THE AREA...WHICH MAY
INFLUENCE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME CONVECTION ON SATURDAY EVEN
THOUGH INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL. SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA...BUT DO NOT SEE A CLEARLY DEFINED COLD FRONT
UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
WYOMING. KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S ON
SATURDAY.

MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR SUNDAY...AND ALL ARE
SHOWING A NEGATIVELY TILTED OPEN WAVE THROUGH LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY. THE GEM IS THE LEAST PROGRESSIVE
COMPARED TO THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT STILL PRETTY SIMILAR. IF THIS
SOLUTION VERIFIES...MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY BUT VERY
WINDY ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE NORTHWARD STORM TRACK. LOWER POP BELOW
10 PERCENT ON SUNDAY...BUT INCREASED WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
GUSTS OVER 50 MPH POSSIBLE DUE TO A 110 KT JET MAX MOVING ACROSS
WYOMING AND MONTANA.

MODELS THEN INDICATE NEAR ZONAL FLOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS HINTING
TOWARDS A MAJOR COLD FRONT DIGGING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA TERMINALS TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM KRWL TO KCYS...WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AT TIMES. FURTHER EAST...WINDS WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE BELOW 10 PERCENT FOR TODAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY ESPECIALLY OVER OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN DISTRICT WHERE LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH AT
TIMES. LOW HUMIDITIES AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF A RAWLINS TO
LUSK LINE WITH GUSTY WINDS OVER 25 MPH...THUS WE MAY NEED ANOTHER
FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AT SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. CURRENT RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN FAHRENHEIT...

RAWLINS 89/1995 LARAMIE 87/2013 CHEYENNE 92/1947 CHADRON 101/1960

ALLIANCE 97/2001 SCOTTSBLUFF 98/1983  SIDNEY 99/1983

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WYZ301>304-306-308.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN
CLIMATE...RUBIN



000
FXUS65 KRIW 020456
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1056 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY (ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT)

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO THE
EVENING ALONG THE EDGE OF A MOISTURE PLUME AND WEAK THETA E RIDGE.
THE GFS TRIES TO BRING THIS AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS FAR
NORTH AS THE ABSAROKAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WHICH COULD KICK OFF
A FEW MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LITTLE
RAIN...ESPECIALLY INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND BASINS. THE NAM HAS A
DIFFERENT STORY FOR TONIGHT WITH MUCH LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE. AS
OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE MORE MODEST NAM
IS VERIFYING A LITTLE BETTER BUT NEITHER MODEL RAMPS UP THE
ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH UNTIL ABOUT 00Z THROUGH 06Z. WENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE TWO INTO THE EVENING THOUGH GIVEN THE CRITICAL NATURE
OF ANY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY THIS LATE IN THE FIRE SEASON.

ALSO ADDED THE OTHER REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CRITICALLY
DRY VEGETATION INTO THE RED FLAG WARNING TO COVER THE POTENTIAL
FOR DRY STORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS...HIGH HAINES INDEX AND
VERY LOW HUMIDITY...WHICH HAS ALSO BEEN LOWER THAN GUIDANCE THE
PAST TWO DAYS. LOOKS LIKE WINDS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH SHOWING UP IN THE
OBSERVATIONS. NOT BAD FOR A DAY THAT LOOKED VERY MARGINAL IN THE
MODELS A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO.

GOING INTO WEDNESDAY...THIS HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE DAY
ADVERTISED WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD LOW HUMIDITY AND STRONG WIND
AND IT IS STILL LOOKING THAT WAY TODAY. EXPECT SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
PICK UP AHEAD OF A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS
STILL SOME INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO HOW MUCH
MOISTURE COMES UP INTO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH.
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE COULD MAKE IT UP AS SOON AS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY FROM BOTTOMING OUT
ACROSS THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW.  SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
PRODUCE WEAK SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SW AND WESTERN
WY WED EVENING.  BETTER CHANCE APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN AND NW WY AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH MOVES SLIGHTLY TO
THE SE AND STARTS TO DESTABILIZE THE MID LEVELS A BIT.  SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH MORE
MOISTURE BEING DRAWN UP FROM UTAH AND COLORADO AS WELL.  GFS STILL
GOES GANGBUSTERS WITH THE PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO THE NAM...ECMWF
AND GEM NH DURING THIS TIME.  THE CORE OF THE TROUGH IS MORE IN
PHASE TODAY COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...YET
SOME DETAILS ARE STILL DIFFERENT TO CREATE ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH MORE OF A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW
WY.  THE COLDEST MID LEVEL TEMPS SWEEP FROM WEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
NW WY FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  LIKELY TO SEE SOME SNOW AT
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF YNP...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AT LEAST IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  DURING THIS TIME ALSO...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WY
WIND WILL SWITCH TO WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION.  A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DRAPE ACROSS NORTHERN WY
FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING MORE RAIN TO THE
NORTHERN BIG HORN BASIN LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.  THE CLOSED LOW
THEN MOVES RAPIDLY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS CREATING BRISK
CONDITIONS SUNDAY EVENING AND A FAIRLY COLD MORNING ON MONDAY.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL...WITH TUESDAY WARMING A
BIT AND SEEING SOME CLOUDINESS SNEAKING UP FROM THE SOUTH. AS
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PAC NW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SW BREEZY
FLOW IS LIKELY TO SET UP TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT MANY TERMINAL SITES WEDNESDAY LATE MORNING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST WY THROUGH 06Z THURS. OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS
TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

.ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...

THERE WILL BE DRY AND BREEZY PERIODS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND COLD FRONTS LATER IN THE WEEK AS ANOTHER
LARGE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...INCREASING FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY
WINDS. A PUSH OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL ARRIVE
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL INCREASE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH PERHAPS A SECONDARY FOCUS IN THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
VENTURE INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND SEND OUTFLOW WINDS DEEP INTO THE
BASINS. THESE STORMS WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH OCCASIONAL WET
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ABOVE 8000 FEET.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR WYZ275>277-279>283-
285-287-289-300-414>416.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...MCDONALD
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN




000
FXUS65 KRIW 020456
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1056 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY (ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT)

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO THE
EVENING ALONG THE EDGE OF A MOISTURE PLUME AND WEAK THETA E RIDGE.
THE GFS TRIES TO BRING THIS AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS FAR
NORTH AS THE ABSAROKAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WHICH COULD KICK OFF
A FEW MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LITTLE
RAIN...ESPECIALLY INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND BASINS. THE NAM HAS A
DIFFERENT STORY FOR TONIGHT WITH MUCH LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE. AS
OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE MORE MODEST NAM
IS VERIFYING A LITTLE BETTER BUT NEITHER MODEL RAMPS UP THE
ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH UNTIL ABOUT 00Z THROUGH 06Z. WENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE TWO INTO THE EVENING THOUGH GIVEN THE CRITICAL NATURE
OF ANY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY THIS LATE IN THE FIRE SEASON.

ALSO ADDED THE OTHER REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CRITICALLY
DRY VEGETATION INTO THE RED FLAG WARNING TO COVER THE POTENTIAL
FOR DRY STORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS...HIGH HAINES INDEX AND
VERY LOW HUMIDITY...WHICH HAS ALSO BEEN LOWER THAN GUIDANCE THE
PAST TWO DAYS. LOOKS LIKE WINDS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH SHOWING UP IN THE
OBSERVATIONS. NOT BAD FOR A DAY THAT LOOKED VERY MARGINAL IN THE
MODELS A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO.

GOING INTO WEDNESDAY...THIS HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE DAY
ADVERTISED WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD LOW HUMIDITY AND STRONG WIND
AND IT IS STILL LOOKING THAT WAY TODAY. EXPECT SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
PICK UP AHEAD OF A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS
STILL SOME INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO HOW MUCH
MOISTURE COMES UP INTO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH.
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE COULD MAKE IT UP AS SOON AS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY FROM BOTTOMING OUT
ACROSS THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW.  SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
PRODUCE WEAK SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SW AND WESTERN
WY WED EVENING.  BETTER CHANCE APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN AND NW WY AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH MOVES SLIGHTLY TO
THE SE AND STARTS TO DESTABILIZE THE MID LEVELS A BIT.  SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH MORE
MOISTURE BEING DRAWN UP FROM UTAH AND COLORADO AS WELL.  GFS STILL
GOES GANGBUSTERS WITH THE PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO THE NAM...ECMWF
AND GEM NH DURING THIS TIME.  THE CORE OF THE TROUGH IS MORE IN
PHASE TODAY COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...YET
SOME DETAILS ARE STILL DIFFERENT TO CREATE ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH MORE OF A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW
WY.  THE COLDEST MID LEVEL TEMPS SWEEP FROM WEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
NW WY FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  LIKELY TO SEE SOME SNOW AT
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF YNP...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AT LEAST IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  DURING THIS TIME ALSO...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WY
WIND WILL SWITCH TO WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION.  A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DRAPE ACROSS NORTHERN WY
FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING MORE RAIN TO THE
NORTHERN BIG HORN BASIN LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.  THE CLOSED LOW
THEN MOVES RAPIDLY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS CREATING BRISK
CONDITIONS SUNDAY EVENING AND A FAIRLY COLD MORNING ON MONDAY.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL...WITH TUESDAY WARMING A
BIT AND SEEING SOME CLOUDINESS SNEAKING UP FROM THE SOUTH. AS
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PAC NW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SW BREEZY
FLOW IS LIKELY TO SET UP TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT MANY TERMINAL SITES WEDNESDAY LATE MORNING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST WY THROUGH 06Z THURS. OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS
TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

.ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...

THERE WILL BE DRY AND BREEZY PERIODS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND COLD FRONTS LATER IN THE WEEK AS ANOTHER
LARGE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...INCREASING FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY
WINDS. A PUSH OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL ARRIVE
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL INCREASE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH PERHAPS A SECONDARY FOCUS IN THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
VENTURE INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND SEND OUTFLOW WINDS DEEP INTO THE
BASINS. THESE STORMS WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH OCCASIONAL WET
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ABOVE 8000 FEET.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR WYZ275>277-279>283-
285-287-289-300-414>416.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...MCDONALD
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN



000
FXUS63 KUNR 020421
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1021 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AT 1920Z...A WEAK 1007MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ARE OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW IN
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WHILE NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA HAVE CLEAR SKIES. AS THE LOW DRIFTS OFF TO THE
WEST...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING LATE THIS
EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED SO ONLY EXPECTING
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...TONIGHT
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET AND CALM ACROSS THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TOMORROW...WITH MANY AREAS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S...AND A FEW PLACES IN THE EASTERN CWA ECLIPSING
THE CENTURY MARK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AND
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY. A COUPLE OF MODELS HAVE HINTED AT CONVECTION EARLY IN
THE DAY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
EXITS THE AREA...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY AS
CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IS LOW. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE MILD AND DRY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PAC NW THU TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK. SWRLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES...THE FIRST OF
WHICH MAY BRING SOME -TSRA TO THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...KEEPING THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WARMER THAN THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
LATE FRIDAY AND MAINLY INTO SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF
AND CROSSES THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS SAT INTO SUN.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW SUN/MON. WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NERN WY
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER MT. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD DROP TO 30-40F WITH RH DROPPING TO 10-15 PERCENT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE WINDS OF 25-30KT MIXING DOWN FROM ALOFT.
THUS...WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING ALSO...WITH MIN RH
AROUND 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER...SO
WILL REFRAIN FROM FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES THURSDAY FOR NOW.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ259.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...POJORLIE




000
FXUS63 KUNR 020421
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1021 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AT 1920Z...A WEAK 1007MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ARE OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW IN
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WHILE NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA HAVE CLEAR SKIES. AS THE LOW DRIFTS OFF TO THE
WEST...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING LATE THIS
EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED SO ONLY EXPECTING
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...TONIGHT
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET AND CALM ACROSS THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TOMORROW...WITH MANY AREAS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S...AND A FEW PLACES IN THE EASTERN CWA ECLIPSING
THE CENTURY MARK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AND
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY. A COUPLE OF MODELS HAVE HINTED AT CONVECTION EARLY IN
THE DAY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
EXITS THE AREA...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY AS
CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IS LOW. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE MILD AND DRY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PAC NW THU TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK. SWRLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES...THE FIRST OF
WHICH MAY BRING SOME -TSRA TO THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...KEEPING THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WARMER THAN THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
LATE FRIDAY AND MAINLY INTO SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF
AND CROSSES THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS SAT INTO SUN.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW SUN/MON. WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NERN WY
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER MT. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD DROP TO 30-40F WITH RH DROPPING TO 10-15 PERCENT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE WINDS OF 25-30KT MIXING DOWN FROM ALOFT.
THUS...WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING ALSO...WITH MIN RH
AROUND 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER...SO
WILL REFRAIN FROM FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES THURSDAY FOR NOW.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ259.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...POJORLIE



000
FXUS63 KUNR 020421
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1021 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AT 1920Z...A WEAK 1007MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ARE OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW IN
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WHILE NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA HAVE CLEAR SKIES. AS THE LOW DRIFTS OFF TO THE
WEST...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING LATE THIS
EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED SO ONLY EXPECTING
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...TONIGHT
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET AND CALM ACROSS THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TOMORROW...WITH MANY AREAS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S...AND A FEW PLACES IN THE EASTERN CWA ECLIPSING
THE CENTURY MARK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AND
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY. A COUPLE OF MODELS HAVE HINTED AT CONVECTION EARLY IN
THE DAY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
EXITS THE AREA...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY AS
CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IS LOW. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE MILD AND DRY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PAC NW THU TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK. SWRLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES...THE FIRST OF
WHICH MAY BRING SOME -TSRA TO THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...KEEPING THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WARMER THAN THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
LATE FRIDAY AND MAINLY INTO SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF
AND CROSSES THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS SAT INTO SUN.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW SUN/MON. WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NERN WY
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER MT. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD DROP TO 30-40F WITH RH DROPPING TO 10-15 PERCENT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE WINDS OF 25-30KT MIXING DOWN FROM ALOFT.
THUS...WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING ALSO...WITH MIN RH
AROUND 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER...SO
WILL REFRAIN FROM FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES THURSDAY FOR NOW.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ259.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...POJORLIE



000
FXUS65 KCYS 020204
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
804 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 801 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AREA FUELS WERE UPDATED TODAY TO INCLUDE MOST AREAS WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. SINCE WE ARE COMING INTO AN EXTENDED WARM...DRY AND
WINDY PERIOD BEGINNING WEDNESDAY...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED RED FLAG
WARNINGS FOR THOSE ZONES WHERE FUELS HAVE BEEN REPORTED READY.
SOME QUESTIONS STILL ON THE LARAMIE RANGE AND LARAMIE COUNTY EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. COULD BE THE WINDS STAY LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP
THESE TWO ZONES OUT OF THE RED FLAG WARNINGS. WILL WAIT TO SEE
WHAT THE 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MAJORITY OF CONCERNS THIS PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON FIRE WEATHER WEDS
AND THURSDAY AS HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOONS OVER PARTS OF THE CWA.

CURRENTLY FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE CWA WITH SOME SHOWERS TRYING TO
DEVELOP AROUND THE SNOWY RANGE WITH A BIT LESS BUILDUP ELSEWHERE
AROUND THE SE WY MTNS. STILL COULD SEE A BIT OF CONVECTION OVER
SRN PARTS OF THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING AND HAVE TAILORED LOW POPS FOR THIS SCENARIO.

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE SEEN IN THE PATTERN AFFECTING THE CWA WEDS
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW. BETTER MOISTURE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
REMAIN SHUNTED TO THE EAST BUT WITH ANY WEAK IMPULSES RIDING UP IN
THE FLOW AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS...THOUGH SOMEWHAT BETTER ON THURSDAY WITH A
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WAVE LOOKING TO LIFT ACROSS ERN COLORADO. TEMPS
QUITE WARM OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS WEDS WITH PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE
LIKELY FLIRTING WITH 100F FOR MAXES WEDS...AIDED BY RELATIVELY DRY
AIR AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A SFC TROUGH THAT WILL DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WEDS. LITTLE CHANGE FOR THURSDAY OTHER THAN
THE SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION MAINLY AROUND THE SE WY
MTNS. SFC COOL FRONT MAY BEGIN TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT LOOKS DRY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE MAJORITY OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT DEPICTING
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS WITH
A UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS WEEKEND. ROCKIES
AND HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HIGHER POPS RELEGATED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN BOTH DAYS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
COOL SLIGHTLY SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF WEAK FRONT. ON SUNDAY
THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
GREAT PLAINS WITH A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THERE MAY BE SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION HIGHEST ELEV
OF THE SOUTHEAST WY MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 506 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS. CONVECTION SEEN ON
RADAR THIS LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD DIE OFF WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND BECOME VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE. AIRPORTS IMPACTED THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WOULD BE KRWL...KLAR AND TO A LESSER EXTENT KCYS.
GUST TO 40 MPH AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

CRITICAL OR NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS STILL LOOK A GOOD POSSIBILITY
OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES WEDS AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AS WINDS AND MIN RHS WILL BE AROUND CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WORST
CONDITIONS APPEAR THEY WILL BE OVER WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY WEDS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE GENERALLY DRY AND QUITE WARM CONDITIONS
CONTINUING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH JUST ISOLATED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTORMS MAINLY AROUND THE SE WY MTNS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ301>304-
     306-308.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RE



000
FXUS65 KCYS 020204
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
804 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 801 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AREA FUELS WERE UPDATED TODAY TO INCLUDE MOST AREAS WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. SINCE WE ARE COMING INTO AN EXTENDED WARM...DRY AND
WINDY PERIOD BEGINNING WEDNESDAY...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED RED FLAG
WARNINGS FOR THOSE ZONES WHERE FUELS HAVE BEEN REPORTED READY.
SOME QUESTIONS STILL ON THE LARAMIE RANGE AND LARAMIE COUNTY EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. COULD BE THE WINDS STAY LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP
THESE TWO ZONES OUT OF THE RED FLAG WARNINGS. WILL WAIT TO SEE
WHAT THE 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MAJORITY OF CONCERNS THIS PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON FIRE WEATHER WEDS
AND THURSDAY AS HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOONS OVER PARTS OF THE CWA.

CURRENTLY FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE CWA WITH SOME SHOWERS TRYING TO
DEVELOP AROUND THE SNOWY RANGE WITH A BIT LESS BUILDUP ELSEWHERE
AROUND THE SE WY MTNS. STILL COULD SEE A BIT OF CONVECTION OVER
SRN PARTS OF THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING AND HAVE TAILORED LOW POPS FOR THIS SCENARIO.

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE SEEN IN THE PATTERN AFFECTING THE CWA WEDS
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW. BETTER MOISTURE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
REMAIN SHUNTED TO THE EAST BUT WITH ANY WEAK IMPULSES RIDING UP IN
THE FLOW AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS...THOUGH SOMEWHAT BETTER ON THURSDAY WITH A
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WAVE LOOKING TO LIFT ACROSS ERN COLORADO. TEMPS
QUITE WARM OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS WEDS WITH PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE
LIKELY FLIRTING WITH 100F FOR MAXES WEDS...AIDED BY RELATIVELY DRY
AIR AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A SFC TROUGH THAT WILL DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WEDS. LITTLE CHANGE FOR THURSDAY OTHER THAN
THE SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION MAINLY AROUND THE SE WY
MTNS. SFC COOL FRONT MAY BEGIN TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT LOOKS DRY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE MAJORITY OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT DEPICTING
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS WITH
A UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS WEEKEND. ROCKIES
AND HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HIGHER POPS RELEGATED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN BOTH DAYS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
COOL SLIGHTLY SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF WEAK FRONT. ON SUNDAY
THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
GREAT PLAINS WITH A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THERE MAY BE SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION HIGHEST ELEV
OF THE SOUTHEAST WY MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 506 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS. CONVECTION SEEN ON
RADAR THIS LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD DIE OFF WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND BECOME VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE. AIRPORTS IMPACTED THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WOULD BE KRWL...KLAR AND TO A LESSER EXTENT KCYS.
GUST TO 40 MPH AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

CRITICAL OR NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS STILL LOOK A GOOD POSSIBILITY
OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES WEDS AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AS WINDS AND MIN RHS WILL BE AROUND CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WORST
CONDITIONS APPEAR THEY WILL BE OVER WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY WEDS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE GENERALLY DRY AND QUITE WARM CONDITIONS
CONTINUING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH JUST ISOLATED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTORMS MAINLY AROUND THE SE WY MTNS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ301>304-
     306-308.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RE




000
FXUS65 KCYS 020204
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
804 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 801 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AREA FUELS WERE UPDATED TODAY TO INCLUDE MOST AREAS WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. SINCE WE ARE COMING INTO AN EXTENDED WARM...DRY AND
WINDY PERIOD BEGINNING WEDNESDAY...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED RED FLAG
WARNINGS FOR THOSE ZONES WHERE FUELS HAVE BEEN REPORTED READY.
SOME QUESTIONS STILL ON THE LARAMIE RANGE AND LARAMIE COUNTY EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. COULD BE THE WINDS STAY LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP
THESE TWO ZONES OUT OF THE RED FLAG WARNINGS. WILL WAIT TO SEE
WHAT THE 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MAJORITY OF CONCERNS THIS PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON FIRE WEATHER WEDS
AND THURSDAY AS HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOONS OVER PARTS OF THE CWA.

CURRENTLY FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE CWA WITH SOME SHOWERS TRYING TO
DEVELOP AROUND THE SNOWY RANGE WITH A BIT LESS BUILDUP ELSEWHERE
AROUND THE SE WY MTNS. STILL COULD SEE A BIT OF CONVECTION OVER
SRN PARTS OF THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING AND HAVE TAILORED LOW POPS FOR THIS SCENARIO.

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE SEEN IN THE PATTERN AFFECTING THE CWA WEDS
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW. BETTER MOISTURE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
REMAIN SHUNTED TO THE EAST BUT WITH ANY WEAK IMPULSES RIDING UP IN
THE FLOW AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS...THOUGH SOMEWHAT BETTER ON THURSDAY WITH A
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WAVE LOOKING TO LIFT ACROSS ERN COLORADO. TEMPS
QUITE WARM OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS WEDS WITH PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE
LIKELY FLIRTING WITH 100F FOR MAXES WEDS...AIDED BY RELATIVELY DRY
AIR AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A SFC TROUGH THAT WILL DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WEDS. LITTLE CHANGE FOR THURSDAY OTHER THAN
THE SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION MAINLY AROUND THE SE WY
MTNS. SFC COOL FRONT MAY BEGIN TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT LOOKS DRY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE MAJORITY OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT DEPICTING
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS WITH
A UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS WEEKEND. ROCKIES
AND HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HIGHER POPS RELEGATED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN BOTH DAYS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
COOL SLIGHTLY SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF WEAK FRONT. ON SUNDAY
THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
GREAT PLAINS WITH A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THERE MAY BE SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION HIGHEST ELEV
OF THE SOUTHEAST WY MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 506 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS. CONVECTION SEEN ON
RADAR THIS LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD DIE OFF WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND BECOME VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE. AIRPORTS IMPACTED THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WOULD BE KRWL...KLAR AND TO A LESSER EXTENT KCYS.
GUST TO 40 MPH AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

CRITICAL OR NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS STILL LOOK A GOOD POSSIBILITY
OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES WEDS AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AS WINDS AND MIN RHS WILL BE AROUND CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WORST
CONDITIONS APPEAR THEY WILL BE OVER WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY WEDS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE GENERALLY DRY AND QUITE WARM CONDITIONS
CONTINUING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH JUST ISOLATED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTORMS MAINLY AROUND THE SE WY MTNS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ301>304-
     306-308.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RE




000
FXUS65 KCYS 020204
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
804 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 801 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AREA FUELS WERE UPDATED TODAY TO INCLUDE MOST AREAS WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. SINCE WE ARE COMING INTO AN EXTENDED WARM...DRY AND
WINDY PERIOD BEGINNING WEDNESDAY...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED RED FLAG
WARNINGS FOR THOSE ZONES WHERE FUELS HAVE BEEN REPORTED READY.
SOME QUESTIONS STILL ON THE LARAMIE RANGE AND LARAMIE COUNTY EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. COULD BE THE WINDS STAY LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP
THESE TWO ZONES OUT OF THE RED FLAG WARNINGS. WILL WAIT TO SEE
WHAT THE 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MAJORITY OF CONCERNS THIS PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON FIRE WEATHER WEDS
AND THURSDAY AS HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOONS OVER PARTS OF THE CWA.

CURRENTLY FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE CWA WITH SOME SHOWERS TRYING TO
DEVELOP AROUND THE SNOWY RANGE WITH A BIT LESS BUILDUP ELSEWHERE
AROUND THE SE WY MTNS. STILL COULD SEE A BIT OF CONVECTION OVER
SRN PARTS OF THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING AND HAVE TAILORED LOW POPS FOR THIS SCENARIO.

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE SEEN IN THE PATTERN AFFECTING THE CWA WEDS
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW. BETTER MOISTURE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
REMAIN SHUNTED TO THE EAST BUT WITH ANY WEAK IMPULSES RIDING UP IN
THE FLOW AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS...THOUGH SOMEWHAT BETTER ON THURSDAY WITH A
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WAVE LOOKING TO LIFT ACROSS ERN COLORADO. TEMPS
QUITE WARM OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS WEDS WITH PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE
LIKELY FLIRTING WITH 100F FOR MAXES WEDS...AIDED BY RELATIVELY DRY
AIR AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A SFC TROUGH THAT WILL DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WEDS. LITTLE CHANGE FOR THURSDAY OTHER THAN
THE SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION MAINLY AROUND THE SE WY
MTNS. SFC COOL FRONT MAY BEGIN TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT LOOKS DRY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE MAJORITY OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT DEPICTING
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS WITH
A UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS WEEKEND. ROCKIES
AND HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HIGHER POPS RELEGATED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN BOTH DAYS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
COOL SLIGHTLY SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF WEAK FRONT. ON SUNDAY
THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
GREAT PLAINS WITH A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THERE MAY BE SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION HIGHEST ELEV
OF THE SOUTHEAST WY MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 506 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS. CONVECTION SEEN ON
RADAR THIS LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD DIE OFF WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND BECOME VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE. AIRPORTS IMPACTED THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WOULD BE KRWL...KLAR AND TO A LESSER EXTENT KCYS.
GUST TO 40 MPH AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

CRITICAL OR NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS STILL LOOK A GOOD POSSIBILITY
OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES WEDS AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AS WINDS AND MIN RHS WILL BE AROUND CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WORST
CONDITIONS APPEAR THEY WILL BE OVER WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY WEDS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE GENERALLY DRY AND QUITE WARM CONDITIONS
CONTINUING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH JUST ISOLATED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTORMS MAINLY AROUND THE SE WY MTNS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ301>304-
     306-308.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RE




000
FXUS65 KCYS 020204
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
804 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 801 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AREA FUELS WERE UPDATED TODAY TO INCLUDE MOST AREAS WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. SINCE WE ARE COMING INTO AN EXTENDED WARM...DRY AND
WINDY PERIOD BEGINNING WEDNESDAY...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED RED FLAG
WARNINGS FOR THOSE ZONES WHERE FUELS HAVE BEEN REPORTED READY.
SOME QUESTIONS STILL ON THE LARAMIE RANGE AND LARAMIE COUNTY EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. COULD BE THE WINDS STAY LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP
THESE TWO ZONES OUT OF THE RED FLAG WARNINGS. WILL WAIT TO SEE
WHAT THE 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MAJORITY OF CONCERNS THIS PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON FIRE WEATHER WEDS
AND THURSDAY AS HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOONS OVER PARTS OF THE CWA.

CURRENTLY FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE CWA WITH SOME SHOWERS TRYING TO
DEVELOP AROUND THE SNOWY RANGE WITH A BIT LESS BUILDUP ELSEWHERE
AROUND THE SE WY MTNS. STILL COULD SEE A BIT OF CONVECTION OVER
SRN PARTS OF THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING AND HAVE TAILORED LOW POPS FOR THIS SCENARIO.

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE SEEN IN THE PATTERN AFFECTING THE CWA WEDS
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW. BETTER MOISTURE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
REMAIN SHUNTED TO THE EAST BUT WITH ANY WEAK IMPULSES RIDING UP IN
THE FLOW AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS...THOUGH SOMEWHAT BETTER ON THURSDAY WITH A
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WAVE LOOKING TO LIFT ACROSS ERN COLORADO. TEMPS
QUITE WARM OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS WEDS WITH PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE
LIKELY FLIRTING WITH 100F FOR MAXES WEDS...AIDED BY RELATIVELY DRY
AIR AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A SFC TROUGH THAT WILL DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WEDS. LITTLE CHANGE FOR THURSDAY OTHER THAN
THE SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION MAINLY AROUND THE SE WY
MTNS. SFC COOL FRONT MAY BEGIN TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT LOOKS DRY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE MAJORITY OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT DEPICTING
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS WITH
A UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS WEEKEND. ROCKIES
AND HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HIGHER POPS RELEGATED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN BOTH DAYS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
COOL SLIGHTLY SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF WEAK FRONT. ON SUNDAY
THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
GREAT PLAINS WITH A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THERE MAY BE SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION HIGHEST ELEV
OF THE SOUTHEAST WY MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 506 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS. CONVECTION SEEN ON
RADAR THIS LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD DIE OFF WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND BECOME VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE. AIRPORTS IMPACTED THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WOULD BE KRWL...KLAR AND TO A LESSER EXTENT KCYS.
GUST TO 40 MPH AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

CRITICAL OR NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS STILL LOOK A GOOD POSSIBILITY
OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES WEDS AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AS WINDS AND MIN RHS WILL BE AROUND CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WORST
CONDITIONS APPEAR THEY WILL BE OVER WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY WEDS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE GENERALLY DRY AND QUITE WARM CONDITIONS
CONTINUING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH JUST ISOLATED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTORMS MAINLY AROUND THE SE WY MTNS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ301>304-
     306-308.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RE




000
FXUS65 KCYS 020204
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
804 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 801 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AREA FUELS WERE UPDATED TODAY TO INCLUDE MOST AREAS WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. SINCE WE ARE COMING INTO AN EXTENDED WARM...DRY AND
WINDY PERIOD BEGINNING WEDNESDAY...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED RED FLAG
WARNINGS FOR THOSE ZONES WHERE FUELS HAVE BEEN REPORTED READY.
SOME QUESTIONS STILL ON THE LARAMIE RANGE AND LARAMIE COUNTY EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. COULD BE THE WINDS STAY LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP
THESE TWO ZONES OUT OF THE RED FLAG WARNINGS. WILL WAIT TO SEE
WHAT THE 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MAJORITY OF CONCERNS THIS PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON FIRE WEATHER WEDS
AND THURSDAY AS HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOONS OVER PARTS OF THE CWA.

CURRENTLY FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE CWA WITH SOME SHOWERS TRYING TO
DEVELOP AROUND THE SNOWY RANGE WITH A BIT LESS BUILDUP ELSEWHERE
AROUND THE SE WY MTNS. STILL COULD SEE A BIT OF CONVECTION OVER
SRN PARTS OF THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING AND HAVE TAILORED LOW POPS FOR THIS SCENARIO.

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE SEEN IN THE PATTERN AFFECTING THE CWA WEDS
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW. BETTER MOISTURE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
REMAIN SHUNTED TO THE EAST BUT WITH ANY WEAK IMPULSES RIDING UP IN
THE FLOW AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS...THOUGH SOMEWHAT BETTER ON THURSDAY WITH A
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WAVE LOOKING TO LIFT ACROSS ERN COLORADO. TEMPS
QUITE WARM OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS WEDS WITH PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE
LIKELY FLIRTING WITH 100F FOR MAXES WEDS...AIDED BY RELATIVELY DRY
AIR AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A SFC TROUGH THAT WILL DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WEDS. LITTLE CHANGE FOR THURSDAY OTHER THAN
THE SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION MAINLY AROUND THE SE WY
MTNS. SFC COOL FRONT MAY BEGIN TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT LOOKS DRY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE MAJORITY OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT DEPICTING
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS WITH
A UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS WEEKEND. ROCKIES
AND HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HIGHER POPS RELEGATED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN BOTH DAYS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
COOL SLIGHTLY SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF WEAK FRONT. ON SUNDAY
THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
GREAT PLAINS WITH A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THERE MAY BE SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION HIGHEST ELEV
OF THE SOUTHEAST WY MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 506 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS. CONVECTION SEEN ON
RADAR THIS LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD DIE OFF WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND BECOME VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE. AIRPORTS IMPACTED THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WOULD BE KRWL...KLAR AND TO A LESSER EXTENT KCYS.
GUST TO 40 MPH AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

CRITICAL OR NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS STILL LOOK A GOOD POSSIBILITY
OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES WEDS AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AS WINDS AND MIN RHS WILL BE AROUND CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WORST
CONDITIONS APPEAR THEY WILL BE OVER WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY WEDS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE GENERALLY DRY AND QUITE WARM CONDITIONS
CONTINUING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH JUST ISOLATED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTORMS MAINLY AROUND THE SE WY MTNS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ301>304-
     306-308.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RE




000
FXUS65 KCYS 012308
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
508 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MAJORITY OF CONCERNS THIS PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON FIRE WEATHER WEDS
AND THURSDAY AS HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOONS OVER PARTS OF THE CWA.

CURRENTLY FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE CWA WITH SOME SHOWERS TRYING TO
DEVELOP AROUND THE SNOWY RANGE WITH A BIT LESS BUILDUP ELSEWHERE
AROUND THE SE WY MTNS. STILL COULD SEE A BIT OF CONVECTION OVER
SRN PARTS OF THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING AND HAVE TAILORED LOW POPS FOR THIS SCENARIO.

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE SEEN IN THE PATTERN AFFECTING THE CWA WEDS
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW. BETTER MOISTURE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
REMAIN SHUNTED TO THE EAST BUT WITH ANY WEAK IMPULSES RIDING UP IN
THE FLOW AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS...THOUGH SOMEWHAT BETTER ON THURSDAY WITH A
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WAVE LOOKING TO LIFT ACROSS ERN COLORADO. TEMPS
QUITE WARM OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS WEDS WITH PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE
LIKELY FLIRTING WITH 100F FOR MAXES WEDS...AIDED BY RELATIVELY DRY
AIR AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A SFC TROUGH THAT WILL DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WEDS. LITTLE CHANGE FOR THURSDAY OTHER THAN
THE SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION MAINLY AROUND THE SE WY
MTNS. SFC COOL FRONT MAY BEGIN TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT LOOKS DRY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE MAJORITY OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT DEPICTING
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS WITH
A UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS WEEKEND. ROCKIES
AND HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HIGHER POPS RELEGATED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN BOTH DAYS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
COOL SLIGHTLY SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF WEAK FRONT. ON SUNDAY
THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
GREAT PLAINS WITH A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THERE MAY BE SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION HIGHEST ELEV
OF THE SOUTHEAST WY MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 506 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS. CONVECTION SEEN ON
RADAR THIS LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD DIE OFF WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND BECOME VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE. AIRPORTS IMPACTED THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WOULD BE KRWL...KLAR AND TO A LESSER EXTENT KCYS.
GUST TO 40 MPH AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

CRITICAL OR NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS STILL LOOK A GOOD POSSIBILITY
OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES WEDS AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AS WINDS AND MIN RHS WILL BE AROUND CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WORST
CONDITIONS APPEAR THEY WILL BE OVER WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY WEDS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE GENERALLY DRY AND QUITE WARM CONDITIONS
CONTINUING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH JUST ISOLATED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTORMS MAINLY AROUND THE SE WY MTNS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR WYZ304-306.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301-302.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ301-302.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RE



000
FXUS65 KCYS 012308
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
508 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MAJORITY OF CONCERNS THIS PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON FIRE WEATHER WEDS
AND THURSDAY AS HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOONS OVER PARTS OF THE CWA.

CURRENTLY FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE CWA WITH SOME SHOWERS TRYING TO
DEVELOP AROUND THE SNOWY RANGE WITH A BIT LESS BUILDUP ELSEWHERE
AROUND THE SE WY MTNS. STILL COULD SEE A BIT OF CONVECTION OVER
SRN PARTS OF THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING AND HAVE TAILORED LOW POPS FOR THIS SCENARIO.

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE SEEN IN THE PATTERN AFFECTING THE CWA WEDS
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW. BETTER MOISTURE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
REMAIN SHUNTED TO THE EAST BUT WITH ANY WEAK IMPULSES RIDING UP IN
THE FLOW AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS...THOUGH SOMEWHAT BETTER ON THURSDAY WITH A
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WAVE LOOKING TO LIFT ACROSS ERN COLORADO. TEMPS
QUITE WARM OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS WEDS WITH PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE
LIKELY FLIRTING WITH 100F FOR MAXES WEDS...AIDED BY RELATIVELY DRY
AIR AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A SFC TROUGH THAT WILL DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WEDS. LITTLE CHANGE FOR THURSDAY OTHER THAN
THE SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION MAINLY AROUND THE SE WY
MTNS. SFC COOL FRONT MAY BEGIN TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT LOOKS DRY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE MAJORITY OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT DEPICTING
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS WITH
A UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS WEEKEND. ROCKIES
AND HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HIGHER POPS RELEGATED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN BOTH DAYS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
COOL SLIGHTLY SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF WEAK FRONT. ON SUNDAY
THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
GREAT PLAINS WITH A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THERE MAY BE SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION HIGHEST ELEV
OF THE SOUTHEAST WY MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 506 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS. CONVECTION SEEN ON
RADAR THIS LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD DIE OFF WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND BECOME VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE. AIRPORTS IMPACTED THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WOULD BE KRWL...KLAR AND TO A LESSER EXTENT KCYS.
GUST TO 40 MPH AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

CRITICAL OR NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS STILL LOOK A GOOD POSSIBILITY
OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES WEDS AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AS WINDS AND MIN RHS WILL BE AROUND CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WORST
CONDITIONS APPEAR THEY WILL BE OVER WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY WEDS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE GENERALLY DRY AND QUITE WARM CONDITIONS
CONTINUING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH JUST ISOLATED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTORMS MAINLY AROUND THE SE WY MTNS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR WYZ304-306.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301-302.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ301-302.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RE




000
FXUS63 KUNR 012156
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
356 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AT 1920Z...A WEAK 1007MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ARE OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW IN
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WHILE NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA HAVE CLEAR SKIES. AS THE LOW DRIFTS OFF TO THE
WEST...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING LATE THIS
EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED SO ONLY EXPECTING
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...TONIGHT
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET AND CALM ACROSS THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TOMORROW...WITH MANY AREAS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S...AND A FEW PLACES IN THE EASTERN CWA ECLIPSING
THE CENTURY MARK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AND
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY. A COUPLE OF MODELS HAVE HINTED AT CONVECTION EARLY IN
THE DAY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
EXITS THE AREA...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY AS
CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IS LOW. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE MILD AND DRY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PAC NW THU TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK. SWRLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES...THE FIRST OF
WHICH MAY BRING SOME -TSRA TO THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...KEEPING THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WARMER THAN THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
LATE FRIDAY AND MAINLY INTO SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF
AND CROSSES THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS SAT INTO SUN.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW SUN/MON. WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 355 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NERN WY
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER MT. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD DROP TO 30-40F WITH RH DROPPING TO 10-15 PERCENT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE WINDS OF 25-30KT MIXING DOWN FROM ALOFT.
THUS...WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING ALSO...WITH MIN RH
AROUND 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER...SO
WILL REFRAIN FROM FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES THURSDAY FOR NOW.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ259.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...POJORLIE



000
FXUS63 KUNR 012156
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
356 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AT 1920Z...A WEAK 1007MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ARE OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW IN
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WHILE NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA HAVE CLEAR SKIES. AS THE LOW DRIFTS OFF TO THE
WEST...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING LATE THIS
EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED SO ONLY EXPECTING
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...TONIGHT
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET AND CALM ACROSS THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TOMORROW...WITH MANY AREAS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S...AND A FEW PLACES IN THE EASTERN CWA ECLIPSING
THE CENTURY MARK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AND
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY. A COUPLE OF MODELS HAVE HINTED AT CONVECTION EARLY IN
THE DAY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
EXITS THE AREA...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY AS
CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IS LOW. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE MILD AND DRY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PAC NW THU TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK. SWRLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES...THE FIRST OF
WHICH MAY BRING SOME -TSRA TO THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...KEEPING THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WARMER THAN THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
LATE FRIDAY AND MAINLY INTO SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF
AND CROSSES THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS SAT INTO SUN.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW SUN/MON. WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 355 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NERN WY
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER MT. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD DROP TO 30-40F WITH RH DROPPING TO 10-15 PERCENT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE WINDS OF 25-30KT MIXING DOWN FROM ALOFT.
THUS...WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING ALSO...WITH MIN RH
AROUND 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER...SO
WILL REFRAIN FROM FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES THURSDAY FOR NOW.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ259.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...POJORLIE




000
FXUS65 KCYS 012046
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
246 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MAJORITY OF CONCERNS THIS PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON FIRE WEATHER WEDS
AND THURSDAY AS HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOONS OVER PARTS OF THE CWA.

CURRENTLY FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE CWA WITH SOME SHOWERS TRYING TO
DEVELOP AROUND THE SNOWY RANGE WITH A BIT LESS BUILDUP ELSEWHERE
AROUND THE SE WY MTNS. STILL COULD SEE A BIT OF CONVECTION OVER
SRN PARTS OF THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING AND HAVE TAILORED LOW POPS FOR THIS SCENARIO.

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE SEEN IN THE PATTERN AFFECTING THE CWA WEDS
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW. BETTER MOISTURE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
REMAIN SHUNTED TO THE EAST BUT WITH ANY WEAK IMPULSES RIDING UP IN
THE FLOW AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS...THOUGH SOMEWHAT BETTER ON THURSDAY WITH A
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WAVE LOOKING TO LIFT ACROSS ERN COLORADO. TEMPS
QUITE WARM OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS WEDS WITH PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE
LIKELY FLIRTING WITH 100F FOR MAXES WEDS...AIDED BY RELATIVELY DRY
AIR AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A SFC TROUGH THAT WILL DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WEDS. LITTLE CHANGE FOR THURSDAY OTHER THAN
THE SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION MAINLY AROUND THE SE WY
MTNS. SFC COOL FRONT MAY BEGIN TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT LOOKS DRY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE MAJORITY OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT DEPICTING
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS WITH
A UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS WEEKEND. ROCKIES
AND HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HIGHER POPS RELEGATED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN BOTH DAYS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
COOL SLIGHTLY SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF WEAK FRONT. ON SUNDAY
THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
GREAT PLAINS WITH A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THERE MAY BE SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION HIGHEST ELEV
OF THE SOUTHEAST WY MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD. WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TSTORMS WITH GUSTY/ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS ALONG THE
RAWLINS-LARAMIE-CHEYENNE ROUTE. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR VISIBILITY UNDER THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

CRITICAL OR NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS STILL LOOK A GOOD POSSIBILITY
OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES WEDS AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AS WINDS AND MIN RHS WILL BE AROUND CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WORST
CONDITIONS APPEAR THEY WILL BE OVER WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY WEDS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE GENERALLY DRY AND QUITE WARM CONDITIONS
CONTINUING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH JUST ISOLATED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTORMS MAINLY AROUND THE SE WY MTNS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR WYZ302-304-306.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301-302.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ301.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...MAJ
FIRE WEATHER...RE




000
FXUS65 KRIW 012046
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
246 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO THE
EVENING ALONG THE EDGE OF A MOISTURE PLUME AND WEAK THETA E RIDGE.
THE GFS TRIES TO BRING THIS AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS FAR
NORTH AS THE ABSAROKAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WHICH COULD KICK OFF
A FEW MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LITTLE
RAIN...ESPECIALLY INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND BASINS. THE NAM HAS A
DIFFERENT STORY FOR TONIGHT WITH MUCH LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE. AS
OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE MORE MODEST NAM
IS VERIFYING A LITTLE BETTER BUT NEITHER MODEL RAMPS UP THE
ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH UNTIL ABOUT 00Z THROUGH 06Z. WENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE TWO INTO THE EVENING THOUGH GIVEN THE CRITICAL NATURE
OF ANY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY THIS LATE IN THE FIRE SEASON.

ALSO ADDED THE OTHER REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CRITICALLY
DRY VEGETATION INTO THE RED FLAG WARNING TO COVER THE POTENTIAL
FOR DRY STORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS...HIGH HAINES INDEX AND
VERY LOW HUMIDITY...WHICH HAS ALSO BEEN LOWER THAN GUIDANCE THE
PAST TWO DAYS. LOOKS LIKE WINDS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH SHOWING UP IN THE
OBSERVATIONS. NOT BAD FOR A DAY THAT LOOKED VERY MARGINAL IN THE
MODELS A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO.

GOING INTO WEDNESDAY...THIS HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE DAY
ADVERTISED WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD LOW HUMIDITY AND STRONG WIND
AND IT IS STILL LOOKING THAT WAY TODAY. EXPECT SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
PICK UP AHEAD OF A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS
STILL SOME INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO HOW MUCH
MOISTURE COMES UP INTO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH.
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE COULD MAKE IT UP AS SOON AS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY FROM BOTTOMING OUT
ACROSS THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW.  SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
PRODUCE WEAK SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SW AND WESTERN
WY WED EVENING.  BETTER CHANCE APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN AND NW WY AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH MOVES SLIGHTLY TO
THE SE AND STARTS TO DESTABILIZE THE MID LEVELS A BIT.  SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH MORE
MOISTURE BEING DRAWN UP FROM UTAH AND COLORADO AS WELL.  GFS STILL
GOES GANGBUSTERS WITH THE PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO THE NAM...ECMWF
AND GEM NH DURING THIS TIME.  THE CORE OF THE TROUGH IS MORE IN
PHASE TODAY COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...YET
SOME DETAILS ARE STILL DIFFERENT TO CREATE ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH MORE OF A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW
WY.  THE COLDEST MID LEVEL TEMPS SWEEP FROM WEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
NW WY FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  LIKELY TO SEE SOME SNOW AT
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF YNP...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AT LEAST IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  DURING THIS TIME ALSO...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WY
WIND WILL SWITCH TO WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION.  A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DRAPE ACROSS NORTHERN WY
FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING MORE RAIN TO THE
NORTHERN BIG HORN BASIN LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.  THE CLOSED LOW
THEN MOVES RAPIDLY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS CREATING BRISK
CONDITIONS SUNDAY EVENING AND A FAIRLY COLD MORNING ON MONDAY.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL...WITH TUESDAY WARMING A
BIT AND SEEING SOME CLOUDINESS SNEAKING UP FROM THE SOUTH. AS
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PAC NW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SW BREEZY
FLOW IS LIKELY TO SET UP TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND WEST. OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE EASILY ACHIEVED
NEAR ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS. THE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL END
IN THE WEST BY 04Z WED AND IN THE EAST AROUND 09Z WED. WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHWEST ONCE FULL MIXING OCCURS IN ALL AREAS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

.ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...

THERE WILL BE DRY AND BREEZY PERIODS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND COLD FRONTS LATER IN THE WEEK AS ANOTHER
LARGE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...INCREASING FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY
WINDS. A PUSH OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL ARRIVE
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL INCREASE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH PERHAPS A SECONDARY FOCUS IN THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
VENTURE INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND SEND OUTFLOW WINDS DEEP INTO THE
BASINS. THESE STORMS WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH OCCASIONAL WET
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ABOVE 8000 FEET.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR WYZ275>277-279>283-
285-287-289-300-414>416.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...MCDONALD
AVIATION...ALLEN
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN




000
FXUS65 KRIW 012046
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
246 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO THE
EVENING ALONG THE EDGE OF A MOISTURE PLUME AND WEAK THETA E RIDGE.
THE GFS TRIES TO BRING THIS AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS FAR
NORTH AS THE ABSAROKAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WHICH COULD KICK OFF
A FEW MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LITTLE
RAIN...ESPECIALLY INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND BASINS. THE NAM HAS A
DIFFERENT STORY FOR TONIGHT WITH MUCH LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE. AS
OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE MORE MODEST NAM
IS VERIFYING A LITTLE BETTER BUT NEITHER MODEL RAMPS UP THE
ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH UNTIL ABOUT 00Z THROUGH 06Z. WENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE TWO INTO THE EVENING THOUGH GIVEN THE CRITICAL NATURE
OF ANY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY THIS LATE IN THE FIRE SEASON.

ALSO ADDED THE OTHER REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CRITICALLY
DRY VEGETATION INTO THE RED FLAG WARNING TO COVER THE POTENTIAL
FOR DRY STORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS...HIGH HAINES INDEX AND
VERY LOW HUMIDITY...WHICH HAS ALSO BEEN LOWER THAN GUIDANCE THE
PAST TWO DAYS. LOOKS LIKE WINDS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH SHOWING UP IN THE
OBSERVATIONS. NOT BAD FOR A DAY THAT LOOKED VERY MARGINAL IN THE
MODELS A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO.

GOING INTO WEDNESDAY...THIS HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE DAY
ADVERTISED WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD LOW HUMIDITY AND STRONG WIND
AND IT IS STILL LOOKING THAT WAY TODAY. EXPECT SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
PICK UP AHEAD OF A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS
STILL SOME INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO HOW MUCH
MOISTURE COMES UP INTO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH.
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE COULD MAKE IT UP AS SOON AS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY FROM BOTTOMING OUT
ACROSS THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW.  SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
PRODUCE WEAK SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SW AND WESTERN
WY WED EVENING.  BETTER CHANCE APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN AND NW WY AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH MOVES SLIGHTLY TO
THE SE AND STARTS TO DESTABILIZE THE MID LEVELS A BIT.  SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH MORE
MOISTURE BEING DRAWN UP FROM UTAH AND COLORADO AS WELL.  GFS STILL
GOES GANGBUSTERS WITH THE PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO THE NAM...ECMWF
AND GEM NH DURING THIS TIME.  THE CORE OF THE TROUGH IS MORE IN
PHASE TODAY COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...YET
SOME DETAILS ARE STILL DIFFERENT TO CREATE ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH MORE OF A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW
WY.  THE COLDEST MID LEVEL TEMPS SWEEP FROM WEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
NW WY FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  LIKELY TO SEE SOME SNOW AT
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF YNP...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AT LEAST IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  DURING THIS TIME ALSO...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WY
WIND WILL SWITCH TO WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION.  A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DRAPE ACROSS NORTHERN WY
FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING MORE RAIN TO THE
NORTHERN BIG HORN BASIN LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.  THE CLOSED LOW
THEN MOVES RAPIDLY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS CREATING BRISK
CONDITIONS SUNDAY EVENING AND A FAIRLY COLD MORNING ON MONDAY.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL...WITH TUESDAY WARMING A
BIT AND SEEING SOME CLOUDINESS SNEAKING UP FROM THE SOUTH. AS
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PAC NW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SW BREEZY
FLOW IS LIKELY TO SET UP TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND WEST. OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE EASILY ACHIEVED
NEAR ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS. THE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL END
IN THE WEST BY 04Z WED AND IN THE EAST AROUND 09Z WED. WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHWEST ONCE FULL MIXING OCCURS IN ALL AREAS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

.ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...

THERE WILL BE DRY AND BREEZY PERIODS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND COLD FRONTS LATER IN THE WEEK AS ANOTHER
LARGE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...INCREASING FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY
WINDS. A PUSH OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL ARRIVE
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL INCREASE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH PERHAPS A SECONDARY FOCUS IN THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
VENTURE INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND SEND OUTFLOW WINDS DEEP INTO THE
BASINS. THESE STORMS WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH OCCASIONAL WET
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ABOVE 8000 FEET.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR WYZ275>277-279>283-
285-287-289-300-414>416.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...MCDONALD
AVIATION...ALLEN
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN



000
FXUS65 KCYS 012046
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
246 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MAJORITY OF CONCERNS THIS PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON FIRE WEATHER WEDS
AND THURSDAY AS HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOONS OVER PARTS OF THE CWA.

CURRENTLY FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE CWA WITH SOME SHOWERS TRYING TO
DEVELOP AROUND THE SNOWY RANGE WITH A BIT LESS BUILDUP ELSEWHERE
AROUND THE SE WY MTNS. STILL COULD SEE A BIT OF CONVECTION OVER
SRN PARTS OF THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING AND HAVE TAILORED LOW POPS FOR THIS SCENARIO.

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE SEEN IN THE PATTERN AFFECTING THE CWA WEDS
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW. BETTER MOISTURE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
REMAIN SHUNTED TO THE EAST BUT WITH ANY WEAK IMPULSES RIDING UP IN
THE FLOW AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS...THOUGH SOMEWHAT BETTER ON THURSDAY WITH A
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WAVE LOOKING TO LIFT ACROSS ERN COLORADO. TEMPS
QUITE WARM OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS WEDS WITH PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE
LIKELY FLIRTING WITH 100F FOR MAXES WEDS...AIDED BY RELATIVELY DRY
AIR AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A SFC TROUGH THAT WILL DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WEDS. LITTLE CHANGE FOR THURSDAY OTHER THAN
THE SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION MAINLY AROUND THE SE WY
MTNS. SFC COOL FRONT MAY BEGIN TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT LOOKS DRY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE MAJORITY OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT DEPICTING
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS WITH
A UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS WEEKEND. ROCKIES
AND HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HIGHER POPS RELEGATED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN BOTH DAYS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
COOL SLIGHTLY SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF WEAK FRONT. ON SUNDAY
THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
GREAT PLAINS WITH A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THERE MAY BE SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION HIGHEST ELEV
OF THE SOUTHEAST WY MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD. WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TSTORMS WITH GUSTY/ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS ALONG THE
RAWLINS-LARAMIE-CHEYENNE ROUTE. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR VISIBILITY UNDER THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

CRITICAL OR NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS STILL LOOK A GOOD POSSIBILITY
OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES WEDS AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AS WINDS AND MIN RHS WILL BE AROUND CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WORST
CONDITIONS APPEAR THEY WILL BE OVER WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY WEDS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE GENERALLY DRY AND QUITE WARM CONDITIONS
CONTINUING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH JUST ISOLATED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTORMS MAINLY AROUND THE SE WY MTNS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR WYZ302-304-306.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301-302.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ301.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...MAJ
FIRE WEATHER...RE



000
FXUS65 KCYS 012046
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
246 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MAJORITY OF CONCERNS THIS PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON FIRE WEATHER WEDS
AND THURSDAY AS HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOONS OVER PARTS OF THE CWA.

CURRENTLY FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE CWA WITH SOME SHOWERS TRYING TO
DEVELOP AROUND THE SNOWY RANGE WITH A BIT LESS BUILDUP ELSEWHERE
AROUND THE SE WY MTNS. STILL COULD SEE A BIT OF CONVECTION OVER
SRN PARTS OF THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING AND HAVE TAILORED LOW POPS FOR THIS SCENARIO.

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE SEEN IN THE PATTERN AFFECTING THE CWA WEDS
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW. BETTER MOISTURE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
REMAIN SHUNTED TO THE EAST BUT WITH ANY WEAK IMPULSES RIDING UP IN
THE FLOW AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS...THOUGH SOMEWHAT BETTER ON THURSDAY WITH A
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WAVE LOOKING TO LIFT ACROSS ERN COLORADO. TEMPS
QUITE WARM OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS WEDS WITH PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE
LIKELY FLIRTING WITH 100F FOR MAXES WEDS...AIDED BY RELATIVELY DRY
AIR AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A SFC TROUGH THAT WILL DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WEDS. LITTLE CHANGE FOR THURSDAY OTHER THAN
THE SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION MAINLY AROUND THE SE WY
MTNS. SFC COOL FRONT MAY BEGIN TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT LOOKS DRY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE MAJORITY OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT DEPICTING
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS WITH
A UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS WEEKEND. ROCKIES
AND HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HIGHER POPS RELEGATED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN BOTH DAYS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
COOL SLIGHTLY SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF WEAK FRONT. ON SUNDAY
THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
GREAT PLAINS WITH A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THERE MAY BE SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION HIGHEST ELEV
OF THE SOUTHEAST WY MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD. WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TSTORMS WITH GUSTY/ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS ALONG THE
RAWLINS-LARAMIE-CHEYENNE ROUTE. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR VISIBILITY UNDER THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

CRITICAL OR NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS STILL LOOK A GOOD POSSIBILITY
OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES WEDS AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AS WINDS AND MIN RHS WILL BE AROUND CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WORST
CONDITIONS APPEAR THEY WILL BE OVER WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY WEDS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE GENERALLY DRY AND QUITE WARM CONDITIONS
CONTINUING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH JUST ISOLATED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTORMS MAINLY AROUND THE SE WY MTNS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR WYZ302-304-306.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301-302.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ301.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...MAJ
FIRE WEATHER...RE



000
FXUS63 KUNR 011959
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
159 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AT 1920Z...A WEAK 1007MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ARE OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW IN
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WHILE NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA HAVE CLEAR SKIES. AS THE LOW DRIFTS OFF TO THE
WEST...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING LATE THIS
EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED SO ONLY EXPECTING
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...TONIGHT
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET AND CALM ACROSS THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TOMORROW...WITH MANY AREAS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S...AND A FEW PLACES IN THE EASTERN CWA ECLIPSING
THE CENTURY MARK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AND
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY. A COUPLE OF MODELS HAVE HINTED AT CONVECTION EARLY IN
THE DAY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
EXITS THE AREA...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY AS
CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IS LOW. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE MILD AND DRY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PAC NW THU TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK. SWRLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES...THE FIRST OF
WHICH MAY BRING SOME -TSRA TO THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...KEEPING THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WARMER THAN THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
LATE FRIDAY AND MAINLY INTO SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF
AND CROSSES THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS SAT INTO SUN.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW SUN/MON. WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NERN WY
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER MT. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD DROP TO 30-40F WITH RH DROPPING TO 10-15 PERCENT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE WINDS OF 25-30KT MIXING DOWN FROM ALOFT.
THUS...WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING ALSO...WITH MIN RH
AROUND 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER...SO
WILL REFRAIN FROM FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES THURSDAY FOR NOW.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ259.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE
FIRE WEATHER...POJORLIE




000
FXUS63 KUNR 011959
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
159 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AT 1920Z...A WEAK 1007MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ARE OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW IN
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WHILE NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA HAVE CLEAR SKIES. AS THE LOW DRIFTS OFF TO THE
WEST...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING LATE THIS
EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED SO ONLY EXPECTING
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...TONIGHT
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET AND CALM ACROSS THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TOMORROW...WITH MANY AREAS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S...AND A FEW PLACES IN THE EASTERN CWA ECLIPSING
THE CENTURY MARK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AND
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY. A COUPLE OF MODELS HAVE HINTED AT CONVECTION EARLY IN
THE DAY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
EXITS THE AREA...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY AS
CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IS LOW. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE MILD AND DRY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PAC NW THU TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK. SWRLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES...THE FIRST OF
WHICH MAY BRING SOME -TSRA TO THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...KEEPING THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WARMER THAN THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
LATE FRIDAY AND MAINLY INTO SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF
AND CROSSES THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS SAT INTO SUN.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW SUN/MON. WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NERN WY
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER MT. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD DROP TO 30-40F WITH RH DROPPING TO 10-15 PERCENT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE WINDS OF 25-30KT MIXING DOWN FROM ALOFT.
THUS...WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING ALSO...WITH MIN RH
AROUND 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER...SO
WILL REFRAIN FROM FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES THURSDAY FOR NOW.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ259.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE
FIRE WEATHER...POJORLIE




000
FXUS63 KUNR 011959
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
159 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AT 1920Z...A WEAK 1007MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ARE OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW IN
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WHILE NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA HAVE CLEAR SKIES. AS THE LOW DRIFTS OFF TO THE
WEST...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING LATE THIS
EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED SO ONLY EXPECTING
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...TONIGHT
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET AND CALM ACROSS THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TOMORROW...WITH MANY AREAS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S...AND A FEW PLACES IN THE EASTERN CWA ECLIPSING
THE CENTURY MARK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AND
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY. A COUPLE OF MODELS HAVE HINTED AT CONVECTION EARLY IN
THE DAY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
EXITS THE AREA...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY AS
CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IS LOW. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE MILD AND DRY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PAC NW THU TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK. SWRLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES...THE FIRST OF
WHICH MAY BRING SOME -TSRA TO THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...KEEPING THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WARMER THAN THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
LATE FRIDAY AND MAINLY INTO SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF
AND CROSSES THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS SAT INTO SUN.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW SUN/MON. WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NERN WY
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER MT. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD DROP TO 30-40F WITH RH DROPPING TO 10-15 PERCENT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE WINDS OF 25-30KT MIXING DOWN FROM ALOFT.
THUS...WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING ALSO...WITH MIN RH
AROUND 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER...SO
WILL REFRAIN FROM FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES THURSDAY FOR NOW.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ259.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE
FIRE WEATHER...POJORLIE




000
FXUS63 KUNR 011959
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
159 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AT 1920Z...A WEAK 1007MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ARE OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW IN
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WHILE NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA HAVE CLEAR SKIES. AS THE LOW DRIFTS OFF TO THE
WEST...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING LATE THIS
EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED SO ONLY EXPECTING
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...TONIGHT
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET AND CALM ACROSS THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TOMORROW...WITH MANY AREAS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S...AND A FEW PLACES IN THE EASTERN CWA ECLIPSING
THE CENTURY MARK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AND
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY. A COUPLE OF MODELS HAVE HINTED AT CONVECTION EARLY IN
THE DAY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
EXITS THE AREA...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY AS
CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IS LOW. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE MILD AND DRY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PAC NW THU TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK. SWRLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES...THE FIRST OF
WHICH MAY BRING SOME -TSRA TO THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...KEEPING THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WARMER THAN THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
LATE FRIDAY AND MAINLY INTO SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF
AND CROSSES THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS SAT INTO SUN.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW SUN/MON. WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NERN WY
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER MT. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD DROP TO 30-40F WITH RH DROPPING TO 10-15 PERCENT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE WINDS OF 25-30KT MIXING DOWN FROM ALOFT.
THUS...WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING ALSO...WITH MIN RH
AROUND 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER...SO
WILL REFRAIN FROM FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES THURSDAY FOR NOW.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ259.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE
FIRE WEATHER...POJORLIE




000
FXUS63 KUNR 011959
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
159 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AT 1920Z...A WEAK 1007MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ARE OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW IN
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WHILE NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA HAVE CLEAR SKIES. AS THE LOW DRIFTS OFF TO THE
WEST...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING LATE THIS
EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED SO ONLY EXPECTING
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...TONIGHT
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET AND CALM ACROSS THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TOMORROW...WITH MANY AREAS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S...AND A FEW PLACES IN THE EASTERN CWA ECLIPSING
THE CENTURY MARK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AND
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY. A COUPLE OF MODELS HAVE HINTED AT CONVECTION EARLY IN
THE DAY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
EXITS THE AREA...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY AS
CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IS LOW. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE MILD AND DRY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PAC NW THU TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK. SWRLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES...THE FIRST OF
WHICH MAY BRING SOME -TSRA TO THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...KEEPING THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WARMER THAN THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
LATE FRIDAY AND MAINLY INTO SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF
AND CROSSES THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS SAT INTO SUN.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW SUN/MON. WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NERN WY
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER MT. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD DROP TO 30-40F WITH RH DROPPING TO 10-15 PERCENT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE WINDS OF 25-30KT MIXING DOWN FROM ALOFT.
THUS...WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING ALSO...WITH MIN RH
AROUND 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER...SO
WILL REFRAIN FROM FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES THURSDAY FOR NOW.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ259.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE
FIRE WEATHER...POJORLIE




000
FXUS63 KUNR 011959
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
159 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AT 1920Z...A WEAK 1007MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ARE OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW IN
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WHILE NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA HAVE CLEAR SKIES. AS THE LOW DRIFTS OFF TO THE
WEST...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING LATE THIS
EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED SO ONLY EXPECTING
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...TONIGHT
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET AND CALM ACROSS THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TOMORROW...WITH MANY AREAS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S...AND A FEW PLACES IN THE EASTERN CWA ECLIPSING
THE CENTURY MARK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AND
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY. A COUPLE OF MODELS HAVE HINTED AT CONVECTION EARLY IN
THE DAY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
EXITS THE AREA...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY AS
CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IS LOW. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE MILD AND DRY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PAC NW THU TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK. SWRLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES...THE FIRST OF
WHICH MAY BRING SOME -TSRA TO THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...KEEPING THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WARMER THAN THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
LATE FRIDAY AND MAINLY INTO SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF
AND CROSSES THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS SAT INTO SUN.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW SUN/MON. WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NERN WY
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER MT. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD DROP TO 30-40F WITH RH DROPPING TO 10-15 PERCENT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE WINDS OF 25-30KT MIXING DOWN FROM ALOFT.
THUS...WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING ALSO...WITH MIN RH
AROUND 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER...SO
WILL REFRAIN FROM FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES THURSDAY FOR NOW.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ259.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE
FIRE WEATHER...POJORLIE



000
FXUS65 KCYS 011750
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1150 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

TODAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS AGREE ON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES OF WYOMING IN LOW
AND MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS...SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO
INHERITED GRIDS. ANOTHER WARM DAY PER PROGGED THICKNESSES.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED STORMS WILL END IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

WEDNESDAY...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL AS THE BEST
MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER COLORADO. STILL THOUGH...850/700 MB
THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING SUGGESTS ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE
BETWEEN LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE...DRY ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE
DRYLINE AND TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG INTERSTATE 25. DECENT ENOUGH
850/700 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS DEVELOPS FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE...DRY ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS INTO THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW AND THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN REGION. THERE
WILL BE A PRETTY STRONG JET STREAM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR OVER
THE AREA...WHICH MAY INFLUENCE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME
CONVECTION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. INCREASED POP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
BETWEEN 20 TO 25 PERCENT ACROSS MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS DUE TO DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND JET DYNAMICS
ALOFT. SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...BUT DO NOT
SEE A CLEARLY DEFINED COLD FRONT UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OR LOW MOVES ACROSS WYOMING. KEPT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO MID 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON SUNDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE
00Z GFS MAINTAINS A NEGATIVELY TILTED OPEN WAVE WHICH LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER AND SHOWS
A CLOSED LOW OVER IDAHO AND WESTERN WYOMING WITH A MUCH MORE
DEFINED...AND STRONG...SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE GEM ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS THE CLOSED LOW MUCH FURTHER TO THE
WEST WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ALSO INDICATE A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS. WITH
RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE ON SUNDAY...KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. MOST OF THE
DYNAMIC FORCING WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM APPEARS TO STAY NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA REGARDLESS OF THE MODEL IN QUESTION...SO KEPT
POP BETWEEN 10 TO 15 PERCENT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ONCE AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SHOWING NEAR ZONAL FLOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY
INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM
BECOMES MORE ACTIVE AND INTERACTS WITH SUBTROPICAL MONSOON
MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD. WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TSTORMS WITH GUSTY/ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS ALONG THE
RAWLINS-LARAMIE-CHEYENNE ROUTE. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR VISIBILITY UNDER THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

EXPECT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES UNDER 20 PERCENT TODAY NORTH OF A
DOUGLAS TO CHEYENNE TO CHADRON LINE. FORTUNATELY...WINDS AND WIND
GUSTS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON LOOKS ON TRACK OVER OUR NORTHERN
AND WESTERN DISTRICTS WITH HUMIDITIES UNDER 15 PERCENT AND WIND
GUSTS OVER 25 MPH...AND WE EXPECT THE WATCH TO BE UPGRADED TO A
RED FLAG WARNING LATER TODAY. LOW HUMIDITIES CONTINUE ON
THURSDAY... HIGHER HUMIDITIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN LOWER
AGAIN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR WYZ301-302-304-306.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...MAJ
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 011750
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1150 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

TODAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS AGREE ON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES OF WYOMING IN LOW
AND MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS...SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO
INHERITED GRIDS. ANOTHER WARM DAY PER PROGGED THICKNESSES.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED STORMS WILL END IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

WEDNESDAY...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL AS THE BEST
MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER COLORADO. STILL THOUGH...850/700 MB
THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING SUGGESTS ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE
BETWEEN LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE...DRY ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE
DRYLINE AND TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG INTERSTATE 25. DECENT ENOUGH
850/700 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS DEVELOPS FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE...DRY ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS INTO THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW AND THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN REGION. THERE
WILL BE A PRETTY STRONG JET STREAM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR OVER
THE AREA...WHICH MAY INFLUENCE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME
CONVECTION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. INCREASED POP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
BETWEEN 20 TO 25 PERCENT ACROSS MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS DUE TO DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND JET DYNAMICS
ALOFT. SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...BUT DO NOT
SEE A CLEARLY DEFINED COLD FRONT UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OR LOW MOVES ACROSS WYOMING. KEPT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO MID 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON SUNDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE
00Z GFS MAINTAINS A NEGATIVELY TILTED OPEN WAVE WHICH LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER AND SHOWS
A CLOSED LOW OVER IDAHO AND WESTERN WYOMING WITH A MUCH MORE
DEFINED...AND STRONG...SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE GEM ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS THE CLOSED LOW MUCH FURTHER TO THE
WEST WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ALSO INDICATE A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS. WITH
RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE ON SUNDAY...KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. MOST OF THE
DYNAMIC FORCING WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM APPEARS TO STAY NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA REGARDLESS OF THE MODEL IN QUESTION...SO KEPT
POP BETWEEN 10 TO 15 PERCENT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ONCE AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SHOWING NEAR ZONAL FLOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY
INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM
BECOMES MORE ACTIVE AND INTERACTS WITH SUBTROPICAL MONSOON
MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD. WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TSTORMS WITH GUSTY/ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS ALONG THE
RAWLINS-LARAMIE-CHEYENNE ROUTE. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR VISIBILITY UNDER THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

EXPECT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES UNDER 20 PERCENT TODAY NORTH OF A
DOUGLAS TO CHEYENNE TO CHADRON LINE. FORTUNATELY...WINDS AND WIND
GUSTS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON LOOKS ON TRACK OVER OUR NORTHERN
AND WESTERN DISTRICTS WITH HUMIDITIES UNDER 15 PERCENT AND WIND
GUSTS OVER 25 MPH...AND WE EXPECT THE WATCH TO BE UPGRADED TO A
RED FLAG WARNING LATER TODAY. LOW HUMIDITIES CONTINUE ON
THURSDAY... HIGHER HUMIDITIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN LOWER
AGAIN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR WYZ301-302-304-306.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...MAJ
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 011750
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1150 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

TODAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS AGREE ON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES OF WYOMING IN LOW
AND MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS...SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO
INHERITED GRIDS. ANOTHER WARM DAY PER PROGGED THICKNESSES.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED STORMS WILL END IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

WEDNESDAY...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL AS THE BEST
MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER COLORADO. STILL THOUGH...850/700 MB
THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING SUGGESTS ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE
BETWEEN LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE...DRY ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE
DRYLINE AND TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG INTERSTATE 25. DECENT ENOUGH
850/700 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS DEVELOPS FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE...DRY ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS INTO THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW AND THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN REGION. THERE
WILL BE A PRETTY STRONG JET STREAM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR OVER
THE AREA...WHICH MAY INFLUENCE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME
CONVECTION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. INCREASED POP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
BETWEEN 20 TO 25 PERCENT ACROSS MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS DUE TO DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND JET DYNAMICS
ALOFT. SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...BUT DO NOT
SEE A CLEARLY DEFINED COLD FRONT UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OR LOW MOVES ACROSS WYOMING. KEPT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO MID 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON SUNDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE
00Z GFS MAINTAINS A NEGATIVELY TILTED OPEN WAVE WHICH LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER AND SHOWS
A CLOSED LOW OVER IDAHO AND WESTERN WYOMING WITH A MUCH MORE
DEFINED...AND STRONG...SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE GEM ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS THE CLOSED LOW MUCH FURTHER TO THE
WEST WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ALSO INDICATE A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS. WITH
RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE ON SUNDAY...KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. MOST OF THE
DYNAMIC FORCING WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM APPEARS TO STAY NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA REGARDLESS OF THE MODEL IN QUESTION...SO KEPT
POP BETWEEN 10 TO 15 PERCENT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ONCE AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SHOWING NEAR ZONAL FLOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY
INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM
BECOMES MORE ACTIVE AND INTERACTS WITH SUBTROPICAL MONSOON
MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD. WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TSTORMS WITH GUSTY/ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS ALONG THE
RAWLINS-LARAMIE-CHEYENNE ROUTE. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR VISIBILITY UNDER THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

EXPECT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES UNDER 20 PERCENT TODAY NORTH OF A
DOUGLAS TO CHEYENNE TO CHADRON LINE. FORTUNATELY...WINDS AND WIND
GUSTS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON LOOKS ON TRACK OVER OUR NORTHERN
AND WESTERN DISTRICTS WITH HUMIDITIES UNDER 15 PERCENT AND WIND
GUSTS OVER 25 MPH...AND WE EXPECT THE WATCH TO BE UPGRADED TO A
RED FLAG WARNING LATER TODAY. LOW HUMIDITIES CONTINUE ON
THURSDAY... HIGHER HUMIDITIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN LOWER
AGAIN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR WYZ301-302-304-306.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...MAJ
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 011750
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1150 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

TODAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS AGREE ON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES OF WYOMING IN LOW
AND MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS...SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO
INHERITED GRIDS. ANOTHER WARM DAY PER PROGGED THICKNESSES.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED STORMS WILL END IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

WEDNESDAY...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL AS THE BEST
MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER COLORADO. STILL THOUGH...850/700 MB
THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING SUGGESTS ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE
BETWEEN LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE...DRY ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE
DRYLINE AND TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG INTERSTATE 25. DECENT ENOUGH
850/700 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS DEVELOPS FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE...DRY ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS INTO THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW AND THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN REGION. THERE
WILL BE A PRETTY STRONG JET STREAM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR OVER
THE AREA...WHICH MAY INFLUENCE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME
CONVECTION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. INCREASED POP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
BETWEEN 20 TO 25 PERCENT ACROSS MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS DUE TO DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND JET DYNAMICS
ALOFT. SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...BUT DO NOT
SEE A CLEARLY DEFINED COLD FRONT UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OR LOW MOVES ACROSS WYOMING. KEPT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO MID 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON SUNDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE
00Z GFS MAINTAINS A NEGATIVELY TILTED OPEN WAVE WHICH LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER AND SHOWS
A CLOSED LOW OVER IDAHO AND WESTERN WYOMING WITH A MUCH MORE
DEFINED...AND STRONG...SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE GEM ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS THE CLOSED LOW MUCH FURTHER TO THE
WEST WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ALSO INDICATE A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS. WITH
RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE ON SUNDAY...KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. MOST OF THE
DYNAMIC FORCING WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM APPEARS TO STAY NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA REGARDLESS OF THE MODEL IN QUESTION...SO KEPT
POP BETWEEN 10 TO 15 PERCENT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ONCE AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SHOWING NEAR ZONAL FLOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY
INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM
BECOMES MORE ACTIVE AND INTERACTS WITH SUBTROPICAL MONSOON
MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD. WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TSTORMS WITH GUSTY/ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS ALONG THE
RAWLINS-LARAMIE-CHEYENNE ROUTE. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR VISIBILITY UNDER THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

EXPECT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES UNDER 20 PERCENT TODAY NORTH OF A
DOUGLAS TO CHEYENNE TO CHADRON LINE. FORTUNATELY...WINDS AND WIND
GUSTS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON LOOKS ON TRACK OVER OUR NORTHERN
AND WESTERN DISTRICTS WITH HUMIDITIES UNDER 15 PERCENT AND WIND
GUSTS OVER 25 MPH...AND WE EXPECT THE WATCH TO BE UPGRADED TO A
RED FLAG WARNING LATER TODAY. LOW HUMIDITIES CONTINUE ON
THURSDAY... HIGHER HUMIDITIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN LOWER
AGAIN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR WYZ301-302-304-306.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...MAJ
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 011750
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1150 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

TODAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS AGREE ON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES OF WYOMING IN LOW
AND MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS...SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO
INHERITED GRIDS. ANOTHER WARM DAY PER PROGGED THICKNESSES.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED STORMS WILL END IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

WEDNESDAY...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL AS THE BEST
MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER COLORADO. STILL THOUGH...850/700 MB
THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING SUGGESTS ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE
BETWEEN LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE...DRY ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE
DRYLINE AND TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG INTERSTATE 25. DECENT ENOUGH
850/700 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS DEVELOPS FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE...DRY ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS INTO THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW AND THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN REGION. THERE
WILL BE A PRETTY STRONG JET STREAM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR OVER
THE AREA...WHICH MAY INFLUENCE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME
CONVECTION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. INCREASED POP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
BETWEEN 20 TO 25 PERCENT ACROSS MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS DUE TO DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND JET DYNAMICS
ALOFT. SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...BUT DO NOT
SEE A CLEARLY DEFINED COLD FRONT UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OR LOW MOVES ACROSS WYOMING. KEPT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO MID 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON SUNDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE
00Z GFS MAINTAINS A NEGATIVELY TILTED OPEN WAVE WHICH LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER AND SHOWS
A CLOSED LOW OVER IDAHO AND WESTERN WYOMING WITH A MUCH MORE
DEFINED...AND STRONG...SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE GEM ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS THE CLOSED LOW MUCH FURTHER TO THE
WEST WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ALSO INDICATE A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS. WITH
RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE ON SUNDAY...KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. MOST OF THE
DYNAMIC FORCING WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM APPEARS TO STAY NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA REGARDLESS OF THE MODEL IN QUESTION...SO KEPT
POP BETWEEN 10 TO 15 PERCENT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ONCE AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SHOWING NEAR ZONAL FLOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY
INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM
BECOMES MORE ACTIVE AND INTERACTS WITH SUBTROPICAL MONSOON
MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD. WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TSTORMS WITH GUSTY/ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS ALONG THE
RAWLINS-LARAMIE-CHEYENNE ROUTE. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR VISIBILITY UNDER THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

EXPECT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES UNDER 20 PERCENT TODAY NORTH OF A
DOUGLAS TO CHEYENNE TO CHADRON LINE. FORTUNATELY...WINDS AND WIND
GUSTS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON LOOKS ON TRACK OVER OUR NORTHERN
AND WESTERN DISTRICTS WITH HUMIDITIES UNDER 15 PERCENT AND WIND
GUSTS OVER 25 MPH...AND WE EXPECT THE WATCH TO BE UPGRADED TO A
RED FLAG WARNING LATER TODAY. LOW HUMIDITIES CONTINUE ON
THURSDAY... HIGHER HUMIDITIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN LOWER
AGAIN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR WYZ301-302-304-306.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...MAJ
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN



000
FXUS65 KRIW 011738 AAA
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1138 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS AS WELL AS THE RED
FLAG WARNINGS TO EXTEND THE WARNINGS TO ALL ZONES WITH CRITICALLY
DRY FUELS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

PRESENTLY...A MONSOON PLUME IS DRAWING UP MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND JUST BARELY SKIRTING FAR EASTERN SWEETWATER COUNTY AND
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF NATRONA COUNTY. ANY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS IN
THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
MOST OF THIS HIGH AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS WE BECOME MORE INFLUENCED BY THE EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH AND THE PACIFIC MOISTURE. WE ARE LOOKING AT SCT T
STORMS MAINLY IN THE NW MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PROMINENT
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH EJECTS A WEAK VORT TRACKING EAST NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH LIMITED PACIFIC MOISTURE.
EVENTUALLY ONLY VERY ISOLD CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
OTHERWISE...WARM DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY...INCREASING AND BACKING SLIGHTLY DURING THE WEEK AS THE
CLOSED LOW WITHIN THE STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH ALONG THE BC COAST
SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHEAST TO THE PAC NW THROUGH
THURSDAY...TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE NOTICEABLY BY WEDNESDAY...THUS INCREASING THE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER ACTIVITY UP ANOTHER NOTCH. BY THURSDAY...AS THE
PACIFIC TROUGH NEARS...QG FORCING ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE PACIFIC
TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST OVER NORTHERN IDAHO
AND WESTERN MT...BUT ENOUGH PACIFIC MOISTURE AND JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY SHOULD GET SOME SCT THUNDERSTORMS GOING IN YNP LATE
THURSDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

COLD TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER ERN GULF OVER INTO NRN B.C. WILL CONTINUE
TO DIG SEWD IN AMPLIFYING FLOW UPSTREAM. END RESULT IS A MAJOR
TROUGH OVER THE WEST THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH LOOKS TO EVEN
GET CUT-OFF FROM THE FLOW SLOWING ITS EWD PROGRESS. THE GFS HAS
SLOWED CONSIDERABLY SINCE LAST NIGHT AS SUSPECTED AND IS NOW IN MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF. NOT FULLY YET BUT MUCH BETTER.
BOTTOM LINE IS STILL FOR A SIGNIFICANT COLD TROUGH/UPPER LOW TO DIG
INTO THE OREGON/IDAHO/NRN NEVADA REGION ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING E
AND NE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING INTO OUR AREA. SYSTEM THEN
STARTS TO EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A VERY DRY WLY FLOW ON
MONDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH MAY DIG INTO THE PACNW NEXT TUESDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING SW WIND ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH WARMER
AND CONTINUED DRY CONDS. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE
SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE CLIPPING OUR SERN ZONES WITH THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE TROUGH ASSISTING WITH STORMS IN THE NWRN ZONES. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE HOVERING NEAR THE NRN ZONES WITH COOLER CONDS
BEHIND IT. ON SATURDAY...DIGGING TROUGH INTO THE NRN GREAT BASIN MAY
ALLOW THIS COLD FRONT TO SAG FURTHER SWD INTO CENTRAL WYO INCREASING
THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THERE AND OF COURSE IN THE WEST. COOL
IF NOT COLD UPPER LOW THEN LIFTS NEWD ACROSS OUR NWRN ZONES SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME TSTMS
ALONG ITS PATH WITH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. CAMPERS/HIKERS AND OTHER
OUTDOOR ENTHUSIASTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THIS DRAMATIC CHANGE TO
COLD AND WET WEATHER WITH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. CURRENT MODELS ARE
SHOWING -2C TO -3C IN YNP EARLY SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS MAY DROP ALL THE
WAY DOWN TO THE LOW SPOTS IN THE PART WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS OF THE NW. STRONG SW WIND AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BLOW ACROSS THE MTNS AND SRN PARTS. A CHILL DAY SUNDAY IN THE
WEST AND COOL TO MILD AT BEST IN THE EAST. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH DRY LOW LEVELS. INCREASING WIND AGAIN
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH.

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST
AFTER 19Z. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AFTER 22Z. OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE EASILY
ACHIEVED NEAR ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS. THE SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY WILL END IN THE WEST BY 04Z WED AND IN THE EAST AROUND
09Z WED. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHWEST ONCE FULL MIXING
OCCURS IN ALL AREAS THRUOGH THE TAF PERIOD.

.FIRE WEATHER...

..ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...

THERE WILL BE DRY AND BREEZY PERIODS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND COLD FRONTS LATER IN THE WEEK AS ANOTHER
LARGE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...INCREASING FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY
WINDS. A PUSH OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL ARRIVE
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL INCREASE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD VENTURE INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND
SEND OUTFLOW WINDS DEEP INTO THE BASINS. THESE STORMS WILL BE
MAINLY DRY WITH OCCASIONAL WET THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ABOVE 8000 FEET.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR WYZ275>277-279>283-
285-287-289-300-414>416.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...ALLEN
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN



000
FXUS65 KRIW 011738 AAA
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1138 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS AS WELL AS THE RED
FLAG WARNINGS TO EXTEND THE WARNINGS TO ALL ZONES WITH CRITICALLY
DRY FUELS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

PRESENTLY...A MONSOON PLUME IS DRAWING UP MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND JUST BARELY SKIRTING FAR EASTERN SWEETWATER COUNTY AND
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF NATRONA COUNTY. ANY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS IN
THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
MOST OF THIS HIGH AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS WE BECOME MORE INFLUENCED BY THE EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH AND THE PACIFIC MOISTURE. WE ARE LOOKING AT SCT T
STORMS MAINLY IN THE NW MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PROMINENT
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH EJECTS A WEAK VORT TRACKING EAST NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH LIMITED PACIFIC MOISTURE.
EVENTUALLY ONLY VERY ISOLD CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
OTHERWISE...WARM DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY...INCREASING AND BACKING SLIGHTLY DURING THE WEEK AS THE
CLOSED LOW WITHIN THE STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH ALONG THE BC COAST
SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHEAST TO THE PAC NW THROUGH
THURSDAY...TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE NOTICEABLY BY WEDNESDAY...THUS INCREASING THE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER ACTIVITY UP ANOTHER NOTCH. BY THURSDAY...AS THE
PACIFIC TROUGH NEARS...QG FORCING ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE PACIFIC
TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST OVER NORTHERN IDAHO
AND WESTERN MT...BUT ENOUGH PACIFIC MOISTURE AND JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY SHOULD GET SOME SCT THUNDERSTORMS GOING IN YNP LATE
THURSDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

COLD TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER ERN GULF OVER INTO NRN B.C. WILL CONTINUE
TO DIG SEWD IN AMPLIFYING FLOW UPSTREAM. END RESULT IS A MAJOR
TROUGH OVER THE WEST THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH LOOKS TO EVEN
GET CUT-OFF FROM THE FLOW SLOWING ITS EWD PROGRESS. THE GFS HAS
SLOWED CONSIDERABLY SINCE LAST NIGHT AS SUSPECTED AND IS NOW IN MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF. NOT FULLY YET BUT MUCH BETTER.
BOTTOM LINE IS STILL FOR A SIGNIFICANT COLD TROUGH/UPPER LOW TO DIG
INTO THE OREGON/IDAHO/NRN NEVADA REGION ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING E
AND NE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING INTO OUR AREA. SYSTEM THEN
STARTS TO EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A VERY DRY WLY FLOW ON
MONDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH MAY DIG INTO THE PACNW NEXT TUESDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING SW WIND ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH WARMER
AND CONTINUED DRY CONDS. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE
SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE CLIPPING OUR SERN ZONES WITH THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE TROUGH ASSISTING WITH STORMS IN THE NWRN ZONES. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE HOVERING NEAR THE NRN ZONES WITH COOLER CONDS
BEHIND IT. ON SATURDAY...DIGGING TROUGH INTO THE NRN GREAT BASIN MAY
ALLOW THIS COLD FRONT TO SAG FURTHER SWD INTO CENTRAL WYO INCREASING
THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THERE AND OF COURSE IN THE WEST. COOL
IF NOT COLD UPPER LOW THEN LIFTS NEWD ACROSS OUR NWRN ZONES SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME TSTMS
ALONG ITS PATH WITH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. CAMPERS/HIKERS AND OTHER
OUTDOOR ENTHUSIASTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THIS DRAMATIC CHANGE TO
COLD AND WET WEATHER WITH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. CURRENT MODELS ARE
SHOWING -2C TO -3C IN YNP EARLY SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS MAY DROP ALL THE
WAY DOWN TO THE LOW SPOTS IN THE PART WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS OF THE NW. STRONG SW WIND AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BLOW ACROSS THE MTNS AND SRN PARTS. A CHILL DAY SUNDAY IN THE
WEST AND COOL TO MILD AT BEST IN THE EAST. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH DRY LOW LEVELS. INCREASING WIND AGAIN
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH.

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST
AFTER 19Z. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AFTER 22Z. OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE EASILY
ACHIEVED NEAR ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS. THE SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY WILL END IN THE WEST BY 04Z WED AND IN THE EAST AROUND
09Z WED. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHWEST ONCE FULL MIXING
OCCURS IN ALL AREAS THRUOGH THE TAF PERIOD.

.FIRE WEATHER...

..ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...

THERE WILL BE DRY AND BREEZY PERIODS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND COLD FRONTS LATER IN THE WEEK AS ANOTHER
LARGE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...INCREASING FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY
WINDS. A PUSH OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL ARRIVE
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL INCREASE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD VENTURE INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND
SEND OUTFLOW WINDS DEEP INTO THE BASINS. THESE STORMS WILL BE
MAINLY DRY WITH OCCASIONAL WET THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ABOVE 8000 FEET.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR WYZ275>277-279>283-
285-287-289-300-414>416.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...ALLEN
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN




000
FXUS65 KRIW 011738 AAA
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1138 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS AS WELL AS THE RED
FLAG WARNINGS TO EXTEND THE WARNINGS TO ALL ZONES WITH CRITICALLY
DRY FUELS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

PRESENTLY...A MONSOON PLUME IS DRAWING UP MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND JUST BARELY SKIRTING FAR EASTERN SWEETWATER COUNTY AND
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF NATRONA COUNTY. ANY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS IN
THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
MOST OF THIS HIGH AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS WE BECOME MORE INFLUENCED BY THE EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH AND THE PACIFIC MOISTURE. WE ARE LOOKING AT SCT T
STORMS MAINLY IN THE NW MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PROMINENT
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH EJECTS A WEAK VORT TRACKING EAST NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH LIMITED PACIFIC MOISTURE.
EVENTUALLY ONLY VERY ISOLD CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
OTHERWISE...WARM DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY...INCREASING AND BACKING SLIGHTLY DURING THE WEEK AS THE
CLOSED LOW WITHIN THE STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH ALONG THE BC COAST
SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHEAST TO THE PAC NW THROUGH
THURSDAY...TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE NOTICEABLY BY WEDNESDAY...THUS INCREASING THE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER ACTIVITY UP ANOTHER NOTCH. BY THURSDAY...AS THE
PACIFIC TROUGH NEARS...QG FORCING ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE PACIFIC
TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST OVER NORTHERN IDAHO
AND WESTERN MT...BUT ENOUGH PACIFIC MOISTURE AND JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY SHOULD GET SOME SCT THUNDERSTORMS GOING IN YNP LATE
THURSDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

COLD TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER ERN GULF OVER INTO NRN B.C. WILL CONTINUE
TO DIG SEWD IN AMPLIFYING FLOW UPSTREAM. END RESULT IS A MAJOR
TROUGH OVER THE WEST THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH LOOKS TO EVEN
GET CUT-OFF FROM THE FLOW SLOWING ITS EWD PROGRESS. THE GFS HAS
SLOWED CONSIDERABLY SINCE LAST NIGHT AS SUSPECTED AND IS NOW IN MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF. NOT FULLY YET BUT MUCH BETTER.
BOTTOM LINE IS STILL FOR A SIGNIFICANT COLD TROUGH/UPPER LOW TO DIG
INTO THE OREGON/IDAHO/NRN NEVADA REGION ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING E
AND NE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING INTO OUR AREA. SYSTEM THEN
STARTS TO EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A VERY DRY WLY FLOW ON
MONDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH MAY DIG INTO THE PACNW NEXT TUESDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING SW WIND ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH WARMER
AND CONTINUED DRY CONDS. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE
SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE CLIPPING OUR SERN ZONES WITH THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE TROUGH ASSISTING WITH STORMS IN THE NWRN ZONES. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE HOVERING NEAR THE NRN ZONES WITH COOLER CONDS
BEHIND IT. ON SATURDAY...DIGGING TROUGH INTO THE NRN GREAT BASIN MAY
ALLOW THIS COLD FRONT TO SAG FURTHER SWD INTO CENTRAL WYO INCREASING
THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THERE AND OF COURSE IN THE WEST. COOL
IF NOT COLD UPPER LOW THEN LIFTS NEWD ACROSS OUR NWRN ZONES SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME TSTMS
ALONG ITS PATH WITH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. CAMPERS/HIKERS AND OTHER
OUTDOOR ENTHUSIASTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THIS DRAMATIC CHANGE TO
COLD AND WET WEATHER WITH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. CURRENT MODELS ARE
SHOWING -2C TO -3C IN YNP EARLY SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS MAY DROP ALL THE
WAY DOWN TO THE LOW SPOTS IN THE PART WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS OF THE NW. STRONG SW WIND AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BLOW ACROSS THE MTNS AND SRN PARTS. A CHILL DAY SUNDAY IN THE
WEST AND COOL TO MILD AT BEST IN THE EAST. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH DRY LOW LEVELS. INCREASING WIND AGAIN
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH.

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST
AFTER 19Z. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AFTER 22Z. OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE EASILY
ACHIEVED NEAR ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS. THE SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY WILL END IN THE WEST BY 04Z WED AND IN THE EAST AROUND
09Z WED. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHWEST ONCE FULL MIXING
OCCURS IN ALL AREAS THRUOGH THE TAF PERIOD.

.FIRE WEATHER...

..ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...

THERE WILL BE DRY AND BREEZY PERIODS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND COLD FRONTS LATER IN THE WEEK AS ANOTHER
LARGE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...INCREASING FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY
WINDS. A PUSH OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL ARRIVE
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL INCREASE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD VENTURE INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND
SEND OUTFLOW WINDS DEEP INTO THE BASINS. THESE STORMS WILL BE
MAINLY DRY WITH OCCASIONAL WET THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ABOVE 8000 FEET.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR WYZ275>277-279>283-
285-287-289-300-414>416.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...ALLEN
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN




000
FXUS65 KRIW 011738 AAA
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1138 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS AS WELL AS THE RED
FLAG WARNINGS TO EXTEND THE WARNINGS TO ALL ZONES WITH CRITICALLY
DRY FUELS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

PRESENTLY...A MONSOON PLUME IS DRAWING UP MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND JUST BARELY SKIRTING FAR EASTERN SWEETWATER COUNTY AND
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF NATRONA COUNTY. ANY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS IN
THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
MOST OF THIS HIGH AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS WE BECOME MORE INFLUENCED BY THE EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH AND THE PACIFIC MOISTURE. WE ARE LOOKING AT SCT T
STORMS MAINLY IN THE NW MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PROMINENT
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH EJECTS A WEAK VORT TRACKING EAST NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH LIMITED PACIFIC MOISTURE.
EVENTUALLY ONLY VERY ISOLD CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
OTHERWISE...WARM DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY...INCREASING AND BACKING SLIGHTLY DURING THE WEEK AS THE
CLOSED LOW WITHIN THE STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH ALONG THE BC COAST
SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHEAST TO THE PAC NW THROUGH
THURSDAY...TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE NOTICEABLY BY WEDNESDAY...THUS INCREASING THE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER ACTIVITY UP ANOTHER NOTCH. BY THURSDAY...AS THE
PACIFIC TROUGH NEARS...QG FORCING ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE PACIFIC
TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST OVER NORTHERN IDAHO
AND WESTERN MT...BUT ENOUGH PACIFIC MOISTURE AND JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY SHOULD GET SOME SCT THUNDERSTORMS GOING IN YNP LATE
THURSDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

COLD TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER ERN GULF OVER INTO NRN B.C. WILL CONTINUE
TO DIG SEWD IN AMPLIFYING FLOW UPSTREAM. END RESULT IS A MAJOR
TROUGH OVER THE WEST THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH LOOKS TO EVEN
GET CUT-OFF FROM THE FLOW SLOWING ITS EWD PROGRESS. THE GFS HAS
SLOWED CONSIDERABLY SINCE LAST NIGHT AS SUSPECTED AND IS NOW IN MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF. NOT FULLY YET BUT MUCH BETTER.
BOTTOM LINE IS STILL FOR A SIGNIFICANT COLD TROUGH/UPPER LOW TO DIG
INTO THE OREGON/IDAHO/NRN NEVADA REGION ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING E
AND NE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING INTO OUR AREA. SYSTEM THEN
STARTS TO EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A VERY DRY WLY FLOW ON
MONDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH MAY DIG INTO THE PACNW NEXT TUESDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING SW WIND ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH WARMER
AND CONTINUED DRY CONDS. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE
SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE CLIPPING OUR SERN ZONES WITH THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE TROUGH ASSISTING WITH STORMS IN THE NWRN ZONES. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE HOVERING NEAR THE NRN ZONES WITH COOLER CONDS
BEHIND IT. ON SATURDAY...DIGGING TROUGH INTO THE NRN GREAT BASIN MAY
ALLOW THIS COLD FRONT TO SAG FURTHER SWD INTO CENTRAL WYO INCREASING
THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THERE AND OF COURSE IN THE WEST. COOL
IF NOT COLD UPPER LOW THEN LIFTS NEWD ACROSS OUR NWRN ZONES SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME TSTMS
ALONG ITS PATH WITH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. CAMPERS/HIKERS AND OTHER
OUTDOOR ENTHUSIASTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THIS DRAMATIC CHANGE TO
COLD AND WET WEATHER WITH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. CURRENT MODELS ARE
SHOWING -2C TO -3C IN YNP EARLY SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS MAY DROP ALL THE
WAY DOWN TO THE LOW SPOTS IN THE PART WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS OF THE NW. STRONG SW WIND AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BLOW ACROSS THE MTNS AND SRN PARTS. A CHILL DAY SUNDAY IN THE
WEST AND COOL TO MILD AT BEST IN THE EAST. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH DRY LOW LEVELS. INCREASING WIND AGAIN
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH.

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST
AFTER 19Z. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AFTER 22Z. OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE EASILY
ACHIEVED NEAR ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS. THE SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY WILL END IN THE WEST BY 04Z WED AND IN THE EAST AROUND
09Z WED. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHWEST ONCE FULL MIXING
OCCURS IN ALL AREAS THRUOGH THE TAF PERIOD.

.FIRE WEATHER...

..ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...

THERE WILL BE DRY AND BREEZY PERIODS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND COLD FRONTS LATER IN THE WEEK AS ANOTHER
LARGE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...INCREASING FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY
WINDS. A PUSH OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL ARRIVE
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL INCREASE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD VENTURE INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND
SEND OUTFLOW WINDS DEEP INTO THE BASINS. THESE STORMS WILL BE
MAINLY DRY WITH OCCASIONAL WET THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ABOVE 8000 FEET.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR WYZ275>277-279>283-
285-287-289-300-414>416.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...ALLEN
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN



000
FXUS63 KUNR 011653
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1053 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 844 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS
AND MODEL DATA.
1...LATEST SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE FOG IN
BUTTE AND MEADE COUNTIES HAS BEEN SLOW TO ERODE THIS MORNING. HAVE
UPDATED GRIDS TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG UP TO 18Z.
2...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF
MELLETTE...TODD...AND TRIPP COUNTIES. THE SHORT TERM HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION EXITING OUR CWA
BY 18Z...AND HAVE REFLECTED THAT IN OUR GRIDS.
3...THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING AT UNR HAD A MAX TEMPERATURE OF 94
DEGREES...AND WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT MIXING EXPECTED
TODAY...HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA WITH A SFC TROUGH DEVELOPING FROM NORTHWESTERN
MONTANA INTO CENTRAL WYOMING. WEAK UPPER FORCING AND SOME
850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS MAY ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM TO CLIP TRIPP CO IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
THIS MORNING.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AND
THE DEEPENING SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. VERY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH OVER NERN WY AND
FAR WRN SD DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 90S
TODAY...WITH THE MIN RH FALLING TO AROUND 12 PERCENT OVER
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT OVER PARTS OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE CAPPING
INVERSION DUE TO THE WARM AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING THIS AFTN/EVE. THE CAP WILL BE WEAKEST
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SO AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY BE
POSSIBLE THERE DURING THE LATE AFTN IF THE INSTABILITY ENDS UP
BEING SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM WITH THE SFC TROUGH DEEPENING OVER
EASTERN MT/WY AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. VERY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED
AGAIN TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY...OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PAC NW THU
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. SWRLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES. A STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SIT ACROSS NW ND/ERN MT. CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS LATE FRIDAY AND MAINLY INTO SATURDAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF AND CROSSES THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE
NRN PLAINS SAT INTO SUN. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW SUN/MON. WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NERN WY
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MT.
DEWPOINTS OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 35F
WITH RH DROPPING TO 10-15 PERCENT. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WINDS OF 25-30KT MIXING DOWN FROM ALOFT. WILL KEEP THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR SRN CAMPBELL COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR WYZ259.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MCKEMY
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...POJORLIE
FIRE WEATHER...10



000
FXUS63 KUNR 011653
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1053 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 844 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS
AND MODEL DATA.
1...LATEST SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE FOG IN
BUTTE AND MEADE COUNTIES HAS BEEN SLOW TO ERODE THIS MORNING. HAVE
UPDATED GRIDS TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG UP TO 18Z.
2...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF
MELLETTE...TODD...AND TRIPP COUNTIES. THE SHORT TERM HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION EXITING OUR CWA
BY 18Z...AND HAVE REFLECTED THAT IN OUR GRIDS.
3...THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING AT UNR HAD A MAX TEMPERATURE OF 94
DEGREES...AND WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT MIXING EXPECTED
TODAY...HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA WITH A SFC TROUGH DEVELOPING FROM NORTHWESTERN
MONTANA INTO CENTRAL WYOMING. WEAK UPPER FORCING AND SOME
850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS MAY ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM TO CLIP TRIPP CO IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
THIS MORNING.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AND
THE DEEPENING SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. VERY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH OVER NERN WY AND
FAR WRN SD DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 90S
TODAY...WITH THE MIN RH FALLING TO AROUND 12 PERCENT OVER
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT OVER PARTS OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE CAPPING
INVERSION DUE TO THE WARM AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING THIS AFTN/EVE. THE CAP WILL BE WEAKEST
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SO AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY BE
POSSIBLE THERE DURING THE LATE AFTN IF THE INSTABILITY ENDS UP
BEING SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM WITH THE SFC TROUGH DEEPENING OVER
EASTERN MT/WY AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. VERY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED
AGAIN TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY...OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PAC NW THU
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. SWRLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES. A STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SIT ACROSS NW ND/ERN MT. CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS LATE FRIDAY AND MAINLY INTO SATURDAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF AND CROSSES THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE
NRN PLAINS SAT INTO SUN. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW SUN/MON. WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NERN WY
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MT.
DEWPOINTS OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 35F
WITH RH DROPPING TO 10-15 PERCENT. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WINDS OF 25-30KT MIXING DOWN FROM ALOFT. WILL KEEP THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR SRN CAMPBELL COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR WYZ259.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MCKEMY
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...POJORLIE
FIRE WEATHER...10




000
FXUS63 KUNR 011455
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
855 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 844 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS
AND MODEL DATA.
1...LATEST SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE FOG IN
BUTTE AND MEADE COUNTIES HAS BEEN SLOW TO ERODE THIS MORNING. HAVE
UPDATED GRIDS TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG UP TO 18Z.
2...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF
MELLETTE...TODD...AND TRIPP COUNTIES. THE SHORT TERM HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION EXITING OUR CWA
BY 18Z...AND HAVE REFLECTED THAT IN OUR GRIDS.
3...THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING AT UNR HAD A MAX TEMPERATURE OF 94
DEGREES...AND WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT MIXING EXPECTED
TODAY...HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA WITH A SFC TROUGH DEVELOPING FROM NORTHWESTERN
MONTANA INTO CENTRAL WYOMING. WEAK UPPER FORCING AND SOME
850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS MAY ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM TO CLIP TRIPP CO IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
THIS MORNING.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AND
THE DEEPENING SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. VERY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH OVER NERN WY AND
FAR WRN SD DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 90S
TODAY...WITH THE MIN RH FALLING TO AROUND 12 PERCENT OVER
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT OVER PARTS OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE CAPPING
INVERSION DUE TO THE WARM AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING THIS AFTN/EVE. THE CAP WILL BE WEAKEST
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SO AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY BE
POSSIBLE THERE DURING THE LATE AFTN IF THE INSTABILITY ENDS UP
BEING SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM WITH THE SFC TROUGH DEEPENING OVER
EASTERN MT/WY AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. VERY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED
AGAIN TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY...OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PAC NW THU
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. SWRLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES. A STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SIT ACROSS NW ND/ERN MT. CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS LATE FRIDAY AND MAINLY INTO SATURDAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF AND CROSSES THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE
NRN PLAINS SAT INTO SUN. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW SUN/MON. WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NERN WY
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MT.
DEWPOINTS OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 35F
WITH RH DROPPING TO 10-15 PERCENT. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WINDS OF 25-30KT MIXING DOWN FROM ALOFT. WILL KEEP THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR SRN CAMPBELL COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR WYZ259.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MCKEMY
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...10




000
FXUS63 KUNR 011455
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
855 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 844 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS
AND MODEL DATA.
1...LATEST SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE FOG IN
BUTTE AND MEADE COUNTIES HAS BEEN SLOW TO ERODE THIS MORNING. HAVE
UPDATED GRIDS TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG UP TO 18Z.
2...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF
MELLETTE...TODD...AND TRIPP COUNTIES. THE SHORT TERM HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION EXITING OUR CWA
BY 18Z...AND HAVE REFLECTED THAT IN OUR GRIDS.
3...THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING AT UNR HAD A MAX TEMPERATURE OF 94
DEGREES...AND WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT MIXING EXPECTED
TODAY...HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA WITH A SFC TROUGH DEVELOPING FROM NORTHWESTERN
MONTANA INTO CENTRAL WYOMING. WEAK UPPER FORCING AND SOME
850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS MAY ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM TO CLIP TRIPP CO IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
THIS MORNING.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AND
THE DEEPENING SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. VERY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH OVER NERN WY AND
FAR WRN SD DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 90S
TODAY...WITH THE MIN RH FALLING TO AROUND 12 PERCENT OVER
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT OVER PARTS OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE CAPPING
INVERSION DUE TO THE WARM AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING THIS AFTN/EVE. THE CAP WILL BE WEAKEST
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SO AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY BE
POSSIBLE THERE DURING THE LATE AFTN IF THE INSTABILITY ENDS UP
BEING SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM WITH THE SFC TROUGH DEEPENING OVER
EASTERN MT/WY AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. VERY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED
AGAIN TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY...OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PAC NW THU
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. SWRLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES. A STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SIT ACROSS NW ND/ERN MT. CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS LATE FRIDAY AND MAINLY INTO SATURDAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF AND CROSSES THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE
NRN PLAINS SAT INTO SUN. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW SUN/MON. WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NERN WY
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MT.
DEWPOINTS OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 35F
WITH RH DROPPING TO 10-15 PERCENT. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WINDS OF 25-30KT MIXING DOWN FROM ALOFT. WILL KEEP THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR SRN CAMPBELL COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR WYZ259.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MCKEMY
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...10




000
FXUS63 KUNR 011455
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
855 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 844 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS
AND MODEL DATA.
1...LATEST SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE FOG IN
BUTTE AND MEADE COUNTIES HAS BEEN SLOW TO ERODE THIS MORNING. HAVE
UPDATED GRIDS TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG UP TO 18Z.
2...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF
MELLETTE...TODD...AND TRIPP COUNTIES. THE SHORT TERM HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION EXITING OUR CWA
BY 18Z...AND HAVE REFLECTED THAT IN OUR GRIDS.
3...THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING AT UNR HAD A MAX TEMPERATURE OF 94
DEGREES...AND WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT MIXING EXPECTED
TODAY...HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA WITH A SFC TROUGH DEVELOPING FROM NORTHWESTERN
MONTANA INTO CENTRAL WYOMING. WEAK UPPER FORCING AND SOME
850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS MAY ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM TO CLIP TRIPP CO IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
THIS MORNING.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AND
THE DEEPENING SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. VERY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH OVER NERN WY AND
FAR WRN SD DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 90S
TODAY...WITH THE MIN RH FALLING TO AROUND 12 PERCENT OVER
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT OVER PARTS OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE CAPPING
INVERSION DUE TO THE WARM AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING THIS AFTN/EVE. THE CAP WILL BE WEAKEST
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SO AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY BE
POSSIBLE THERE DURING THE LATE AFTN IF THE INSTABILITY ENDS UP
BEING SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM WITH THE SFC TROUGH DEEPENING OVER
EASTERN MT/WY AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. VERY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED
AGAIN TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY...OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PAC NW THU
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. SWRLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES. A STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SIT ACROSS NW ND/ERN MT. CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS LATE FRIDAY AND MAINLY INTO SATURDAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF AND CROSSES THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE
NRN PLAINS SAT INTO SUN. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW SUN/MON. WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NERN WY
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MT.
DEWPOINTS OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 35F
WITH RH DROPPING TO 10-15 PERCENT. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WINDS OF 25-30KT MIXING DOWN FROM ALOFT. WILL KEEP THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR SRN CAMPBELL COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR WYZ259.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MCKEMY
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...10




000
FXUS63 KUNR 011455
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
855 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 844 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS
AND MODEL DATA.
1...LATEST SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE FOG IN
BUTTE AND MEADE COUNTIES HAS BEEN SLOW TO ERODE THIS MORNING. HAVE
UPDATED GRIDS TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG UP TO 18Z.
2...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF
MELLETTE...TODD...AND TRIPP COUNTIES. THE SHORT TERM HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION EXITING OUR CWA
BY 18Z...AND HAVE REFLECTED THAT IN OUR GRIDS.
3...THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING AT UNR HAD A MAX TEMPERATURE OF 94
DEGREES...AND WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT MIXING EXPECTED
TODAY...HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA WITH A SFC TROUGH DEVELOPING FROM NORTHWESTERN
MONTANA INTO CENTRAL WYOMING. WEAK UPPER FORCING AND SOME
850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS MAY ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM TO CLIP TRIPP CO IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
THIS MORNING.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AND
THE DEEPENING SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. VERY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH OVER NERN WY AND
FAR WRN SD DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 90S
TODAY...WITH THE MIN RH FALLING TO AROUND 12 PERCENT OVER
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT OVER PARTS OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE CAPPING
INVERSION DUE TO THE WARM AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING THIS AFTN/EVE. THE CAP WILL BE WEAKEST
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SO AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY BE
POSSIBLE THERE DURING THE LATE AFTN IF THE INSTABILITY ENDS UP
BEING SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM WITH THE SFC TROUGH DEEPENING OVER
EASTERN MT/WY AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. VERY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED
AGAIN TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY...OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PAC NW THU
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. SWRLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES. A STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SIT ACROSS NW ND/ERN MT. CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS LATE FRIDAY AND MAINLY INTO SATURDAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF AND CROSSES THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE
NRN PLAINS SAT INTO SUN. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW SUN/MON. WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NERN WY
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MT.
DEWPOINTS OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 35F
WITH RH DROPPING TO 10-15 PERCENT. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WINDS OF 25-30KT MIXING DOWN FROM ALOFT. WILL KEEP THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR SRN CAMPBELL COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR WYZ259.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MCKEMY
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...10




000
FXUS63 KUNR 011455
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
855 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 844 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS
AND MODEL DATA.
1...LATEST SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE FOG IN
BUTTE AND MEADE COUNTIES HAS BEEN SLOW TO ERODE THIS MORNING. HAVE
UPDATED GRIDS TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG UP TO 18Z.
2...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF
MELLETTE...TODD...AND TRIPP COUNTIES. THE SHORT TERM HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION EXITING OUR CWA
BY 18Z...AND HAVE REFLECTED THAT IN OUR GRIDS.
3...THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING AT UNR HAD A MAX TEMPERATURE OF 94
DEGREES...AND WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT MIXING EXPECTED
TODAY...HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA WITH A SFC TROUGH DEVELOPING FROM NORTHWESTERN
MONTANA INTO CENTRAL WYOMING. WEAK UPPER FORCING AND SOME
850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS MAY ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM TO CLIP TRIPP CO IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
THIS MORNING.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AND
THE DEEPENING SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. VERY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH OVER NERN WY AND
FAR WRN SD DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 90S
TODAY...WITH THE MIN RH FALLING TO AROUND 12 PERCENT OVER
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT OVER PARTS OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE CAPPING
INVERSION DUE TO THE WARM AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING THIS AFTN/EVE. THE CAP WILL BE WEAKEST
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SO AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY BE
POSSIBLE THERE DURING THE LATE AFTN IF THE INSTABILITY ENDS UP
BEING SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM WITH THE SFC TROUGH DEEPENING OVER
EASTERN MT/WY AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. VERY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED
AGAIN TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY...OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PAC NW THU
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. SWRLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES. A STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SIT ACROSS NW ND/ERN MT. CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS LATE FRIDAY AND MAINLY INTO SATURDAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF AND CROSSES THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE
NRN PLAINS SAT INTO SUN. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW SUN/MON. WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NERN WY
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MT.
DEWPOINTS OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 35F
WITH RH DROPPING TO 10-15 PERCENT. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WINDS OF 25-30KT MIXING DOWN FROM ALOFT. WILL KEEP THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR SRN CAMPBELL COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR WYZ259.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MCKEMY
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...10




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