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000
FXUS63 KUNR 250510
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1110 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 744 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES COLD FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
MONTANA. SMALL COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA IS PRODUCING SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

OBSERVATIONS ACROSS MONTANA SHOW WIND GUSTS 40-50KT ASSOCIATED
WITH COLD FRONT. 00Z NAM/RUC BRING AREA OF 6+MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES
THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA 06Z-09Z...WITH 40KT BL WINDS. HAVE
INCREASED FORECAST WINDS BEHIND FRONT...AND ISSUED WIND ADVISORY
FOR 45-55MPH GUSTS. POSSIBLE THAT RAPID CITY AREA EXCEEDS 60
MPH...THOUGH TIMING OF DAY NOT AS FAVORABLE. MAY NEED TO UPGRADE
TO HIGH WIND WARNING DEPENDING ON UPSTREAM TRENDS. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS IT PUSHES EAST OF FORECAST
AREA

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ISSUED AT 216
PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

POTENT NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT AND ISOLD TS CHANCES TONIGHT
INTO THE FA. FAST WESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SK/MB UPPER VORTEX WILL SUPPORT RENEWED SHRA/TS CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ADVANCES SE ACROSS CENTRAL SD.

A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON...LIMITING ISOLD TS CHANCES SAVE FOR PERHAPS OVER NE WY
WHERE HIGH TERRAIN MIX OUT OF THE CAP IS EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
STAUNCH CAPPING INVERSION BREAKS DOWN WITH HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING
SE PER THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH. FLOW EMBEDDED WEAK IMPULSES
ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT NE OUT OF
WY AND SUPPORT ISOLD TS OVER MUCH OF THE FA...ESP THE SE HALF.
ACTIVITY MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS A LL THETA-E RIDGE
SLOWLY SETTLES SOUTH...INDICATED WELL AT H7. GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES/AMPLE LL MOISTURE/AND BROAD SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT...HAVE CARRIED TS CHANCES THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT PERIOD.
ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS GIVEN
STEEP LL LAPSE RATES. SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER CELLS.
DECENT PRESSURE RISES EXPECTED /4 MB PER HR/ WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT...LIKELY SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS ACROSS
THE SD PLAINS IN CAA...ESP IN THE LEE OF THE BLACK HILLS. HAVE BUMPED
WINDS UP FOR THIS.

FRIDAY...DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY VIA BREEZY NW
WINDS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY MOST
PLACES...BUT STILL WARM WITH UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S EXPECTED. SK/MB
UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST...AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
POSITIONS OVER CENTRAL SD FRIDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERN PERIPHERY IMPULSE
WILL SUPPORT A POS THETA-E ADV REGIME CENTERED AROUND H7 THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT SE HALF. LSA/UVM FROM THIS IMPULSE COUPLED WITH
LIFT AT AROUND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE EXPECTED JET STREAK
SHOULD SUPPORT A DECENT CHANCE FOR SCT TS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...ESP
OVER SCENTRAL SD. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN MU
CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS.
DID RAISE POPS TO 30 WITH SOME 40S FAR SE. OTHERWISE...SLIGHTLY
COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH LOW 60S AND 50S COMMON.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL BEGIN TO
ROTATE AROUND THE WESTERN RIDGE AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AGAIN
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ESPECIALLY WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE INTO
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. LCL MVFR VSBY WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
OVERNIGHT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. LIGHT
WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-025-
     026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...7
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...7





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000
FXUS65 KRIW 250504
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1104 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

SUBTROPICAL PLUME WHICH BROUGHT WEAK MORNING CONVECTION WITH GUSTY
WIND TO 40 MPH IS NOW BRINGING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MIX FOR
OUR SERN THIRD. AIRMASS HAS ACTUALLY JUICED UP IN THE FAR SOUTH SO
RED FLAG WARNING IS ACTUALLY STRUGGLING TO VERIFY DUE TO THE HIGHER
DEW POINTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...HOT AND DUSTY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FURTHER NORTH. ONE OTHER ITEM OF NOTE TODAY IS
SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTION GOING ON IN CENTRAL WYO WITH STRONG SW
WINDS MIXING DOWN AT TIMES BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH. BEEFED UP WINDS
SOME MORE TO COVER THIS. ONE AREA TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WILL BE OUR NERN ZONES WHERE SURFACE LOW IS SITTING WITH VERY
MOIST AIRMASS JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY AIDED BY
APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA SO
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS EXIST FOR A COUPLE HOURS INTO
THE EVENING UP THERE IN JOHNSON COUNTY. FLOW TURNS MORE WLY ON
FRIDAY SO MONSOONAL PLUME SHOULD BE PUSHED SOUTH TO THE NRN CO
BORDER WITH ONLY FAR SERN SWEETWATER SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD
TSTMS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SAGS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WYO TONIGHT
WILL WASH OUR ON FRIDAY ACROSS ALL BUT POTENTIALLY THE NERN ZONES
LEADING TO ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH LOW RH`S AND GUSTY WEST WIND.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN AND MONTANA BORDER WILL
CAUSE THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO FLATTEN FRIDAY EVENING. THE
RESULTANT ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN DRY...THOUGH THE INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK TO AMPLIFY AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE SYSTEM AMPLIFIES...IT MAY
PERMIT SOME MOISTURE TO MOVE INT SOUTHERN WYOMING SATURDAY WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER POSSIBLE.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND MOVE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER WESTERN WYOMING BY SUNDAY EVENING.
THE AXIS WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE FULLY INTO THE STATE AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. DISTURBANCES WILL
BRING REPEATING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT IS POSSIBLE DURING
THESE SHOWERS...WHICH INCREASES THE CHANCES FOR ACTIVITY ACROSS
FAVORED LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
FLUCTUATE SIGNIFICANTLY EACH DAY. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUD
COVER...SHOWERS...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERMIT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

GENERALLY CLEAR SKY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
SURFACE WIND WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE BY MID AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.
WEST WIND COULD BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN RANGES OF WYOMING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES...LOW RH`S...HAINES INDEX OF
5 TO 6 AND GUSTY WEST WIND WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE COME
UP SOME IN 279 TODAY BUT IT WILL DRY OUT MORE AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE... EXPECT MORE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS A COOL FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO
THE CENTRAL ZONES TONIGHT BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BE
PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT A DRY...HOT WESTERLY
WIND. MANY AREAS WILL SEE WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS VARYING FROM 30 TO 35 MPH.
ISOLATED GUSTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR
279...280...289 AND 300 THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL CONTINUE WARM TO HOT WITH GUSTY WIND AT TIMES WITH MIN RH`S
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT. CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE
IN 279 THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT FRIDAY
WYZ276-279-280-283-285-287-300.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKRBAC
LONG TERM...BRANHAM
AVIATION...KPL
FIRE WEATHER...SKRBAC





000
FXUS65 KRIW 250504
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1104 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

SUBTROPICAL PLUME WHICH BROUGHT WEAK MORNING CONVECTION WITH GUSTY
WIND TO 40 MPH IS NOW BRINGING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MIX FOR
OUR SERN THIRD. AIRMASS HAS ACTUALLY JUICED UP IN THE FAR SOUTH SO
RED FLAG WARNING IS ACTUALLY STRUGGLING TO VERIFY DUE TO THE HIGHER
DEW POINTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...HOT AND DUSTY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FURTHER NORTH. ONE OTHER ITEM OF NOTE TODAY IS
SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTION GOING ON IN CENTRAL WYO WITH STRONG SW
WINDS MIXING DOWN AT TIMES BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH. BEEFED UP WINDS
SOME MORE TO COVER THIS. ONE AREA TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WILL BE OUR NERN ZONES WHERE SURFACE LOW IS SITTING WITH VERY
MOIST AIRMASS JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY AIDED BY
APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA SO
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS EXIST FOR A COUPLE HOURS INTO
THE EVENING UP THERE IN JOHNSON COUNTY. FLOW TURNS MORE WLY ON
FRIDAY SO MONSOONAL PLUME SHOULD BE PUSHED SOUTH TO THE NRN CO
BORDER WITH ONLY FAR SERN SWEETWATER SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD
TSTMS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SAGS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WYO TONIGHT
WILL WASH OUR ON FRIDAY ACROSS ALL BUT POTENTIALLY THE NERN ZONES
LEADING TO ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH LOW RH`S AND GUSTY WEST WIND.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN AND MONTANA BORDER WILL
CAUSE THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO FLATTEN FRIDAY EVENING. THE
RESULTANT ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN DRY...THOUGH THE INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK TO AMPLIFY AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE SYSTEM AMPLIFIES...IT MAY
PERMIT SOME MOISTURE TO MOVE INT SOUTHERN WYOMING SATURDAY WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER POSSIBLE.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND MOVE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER WESTERN WYOMING BY SUNDAY EVENING.
THE AXIS WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE FULLY INTO THE STATE AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. DISTURBANCES WILL
BRING REPEATING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT IS POSSIBLE DURING
THESE SHOWERS...WHICH INCREASES THE CHANCES FOR ACTIVITY ACROSS
FAVORED LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
FLUCTUATE SIGNIFICANTLY EACH DAY. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUD
COVER...SHOWERS...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERMIT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

GENERALLY CLEAR SKY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
SURFACE WIND WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE BY MID AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.
WEST WIND COULD BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN RANGES OF WYOMING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES...LOW RH`S...HAINES INDEX OF
5 TO 6 AND GUSTY WEST WIND WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE COME
UP SOME IN 279 TODAY BUT IT WILL DRY OUT MORE AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE... EXPECT MORE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS A COOL FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO
THE CENTRAL ZONES TONIGHT BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BE
PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT A DRY...HOT WESTERLY
WIND. MANY AREAS WILL SEE WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS VARYING FROM 30 TO 35 MPH.
ISOLATED GUSTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR
279...280...289 AND 300 THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL CONTINUE WARM TO HOT WITH GUSTY WIND AT TIMES WITH MIN RH`S
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT. CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE
IN 279 THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT FRIDAY
WYZ276-279-280-283-285-287-300.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKRBAC
LONG TERM...BRANHAM
AVIATION...KPL
FIRE WEATHER...SKRBAC



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000
FXUS65 KCYS 250454
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1054 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 848 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE EARLY EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LIFTING QUICKLY NORTHEAST ACROSS MT AND THE DAKOTAS. TRAILING
WEAK VORT LOBE PROVIDED LIFT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA. THIS FEATURE HAS MOVED EAST INTO CENTRAL NE.
DRYING ALOFT WAS SPREADING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL WY...AND
WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST WY AND WESTERN NE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT.
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA. MODERATE
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE AND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. RADAR SHOWED A WEAKENING TSTORM SOUTH OF RAWLINS.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AFTER MID EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. LIKE USUAL GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT...USHERING IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. THIS WILL BE A SHALLOW PUSH OF COOL AIR WITH
THE AIRMASS QUICKLY MODIFYING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WILL AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE 90S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT LIKE IS OCCURRING IN
THE PANHANDLE TODAY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON THE LOW SIDE
FRIDAY BUT THERE WILL BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WHICH MAY WORK EAST INTO THE PLAINS. MAIN CHANCES FOR
STORMS SHOULD BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOT EXPECTED.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AGAIN
NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR TO WORK WITH BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER BUT MOST
LIKELY MONSOON MOISTURE WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE CWA THIS PERIOD
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE SITUATED TO THE WEST AND A LARGE UPPER TROF
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER AIR
TO DROP OUT OF CANADA ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH THE CWA ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE COOLER AIR MASS. A COOL FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SFC HIGH THEN SETTING UP OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY
WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA. SOME RETURN OF MOISTURE
SHOULD HAPPEN TUESDAY WHILE AN UPPER SHORTWAVE DROPS SE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A DRIER REGIME
RETURNS WEDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS (GENERALLY LESS
THAN 15 KTS) BEHIND IT. MIDLVL CLOUDS WILL PASS NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH SUNRISE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTN ON FRI.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONE 301 WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AND HUMIDITY VALUES SLOWLY RECOVER. CRITICAL TO
NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ZONE 301 FRIDAY DUE TO
GUSTY WINDS AND HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS. ZONES 304 AND 306
WILL ALSO SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS. SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THIS WEEKEND
ALONG WITH LESS WINDS SO NOT EXPECTING CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT COULD SEE BREEZY WINDS WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAMSKI
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...SML




000
FXUS65 KCYS 250454
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1054 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 848 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE EARLY EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LIFTING QUICKLY NORTHEAST ACROSS MT AND THE DAKOTAS. TRAILING
WEAK VORT LOBE PROVIDED LIFT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA. THIS FEATURE HAS MOVED EAST INTO CENTRAL NE.
DRYING ALOFT WAS SPREADING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL WY...AND
WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST WY AND WESTERN NE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT.
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA. MODERATE
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE AND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. RADAR SHOWED A WEAKENING TSTORM SOUTH OF RAWLINS.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AFTER MID EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. LIKE USUAL GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT...USHERING IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. THIS WILL BE A SHALLOW PUSH OF COOL AIR WITH
THE AIRMASS QUICKLY MODIFYING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WILL AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE 90S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT LIKE IS OCCURRING IN
THE PANHANDLE TODAY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON THE LOW SIDE
FRIDAY BUT THERE WILL BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WHICH MAY WORK EAST INTO THE PLAINS. MAIN CHANCES FOR
STORMS SHOULD BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOT EXPECTED.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AGAIN
NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR TO WORK WITH BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER BUT MOST
LIKELY MONSOON MOISTURE WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE CWA THIS PERIOD
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE SITUATED TO THE WEST AND A LARGE UPPER TROF
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER AIR
TO DROP OUT OF CANADA ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH THE CWA ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE COOLER AIR MASS. A COOL FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SFC HIGH THEN SETTING UP OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY
WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA. SOME RETURN OF MOISTURE
SHOULD HAPPEN TUESDAY WHILE AN UPPER SHORTWAVE DROPS SE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A DRIER REGIME
RETURNS WEDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS (GENERALLY LESS
THAN 15 KTS) BEHIND IT. MIDLVL CLOUDS WILL PASS NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH SUNRISE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTN ON FRI.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONE 301 WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AND HUMIDITY VALUES SLOWLY RECOVER. CRITICAL TO
NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ZONE 301 FRIDAY DUE TO
GUSTY WINDS AND HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS. ZONES 304 AND 306
WILL ALSO SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS. SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THIS WEEKEND
ALONG WITH LESS WINDS SO NOT EXPECTING CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT COULD SEE BREEZY WINDS WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAMSKI
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...SML




000
FXUS65 KCYS 250454
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1054 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 848 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE EARLY EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LIFTING QUICKLY NORTHEAST ACROSS MT AND THE DAKOTAS. TRAILING
WEAK VORT LOBE PROVIDED LIFT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA. THIS FEATURE HAS MOVED EAST INTO CENTRAL NE.
DRYING ALOFT WAS SPREADING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL WY...AND
WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST WY AND WESTERN NE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT.
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA. MODERATE
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE AND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. RADAR SHOWED A WEAKENING TSTORM SOUTH OF RAWLINS.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AFTER MID EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. LIKE USUAL GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT...USHERING IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. THIS WILL BE A SHALLOW PUSH OF COOL AIR WITH
THE AIRMASS QUICKLY MODIFYING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WILL AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE 90S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT LIKE IS OCCURRING IN
THE PANHANDLE TODAY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON THE LOW SIDE
FRIDAY BUT THERE WILL BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WHICH MAY WORK EAST INTO THE PLAINS. MAIN CHANCES FOR
STORMS SHOULD BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOT EXPECTED.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AGAIN
NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR TO WORK WITH BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER BUT MOST
LIKELY MONSOON MOISTURE WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE CWA THIS PERIOD
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE SITUATED TO THE WEST AND A LARGE UPPER TROF
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER AIR
TO DROP OUT OF CANADA ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH THE CWA ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE COOLER AIR MASS. A COOL FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SFC HIGH THEN SETTING UP OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY
WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA. SOME RETURN OF MOISTURE
SHOULD HAPPEN TUESDAY WHILE AN UPPER SHORTWAVE DROPS SE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A DRIER REGIME
RETURNS WEDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS (GENERALLY LESS
THAN 15 KTS) BEHIND IT. MIDLVL CLOUDS WILL PASS NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH SUNRISE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTN ON FRI.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONE 301 WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AND HUMIDITY VALUES SLOWLY RECOVER. CRITICAL TO
NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ZONE 301 FRIDAY DUE TO
GUSTY WINDS AND HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS. ZONES 304 AND 306
WILL ALSO SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS. SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THIS WEEKEND
ALONG WITH LESS WINDS SO NOT EXPECTING CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT COULD SEE BREEZY WINDS WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAMSKI
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...SML




000
FXUS65 KCYS 250454
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1054 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 848 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE EARLY EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LIFTING QUICKLY NORTHEAST ACROSS MT AND THE DAKOTAS. TRAILING
WEAK VORT LOBE PROVIDED LIFT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA. THIS FEATURE HAS MOVED EAST INTO CENTRAL NE.
DRYING ALOFT WAS SPREADING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL WY...AND
WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST WY AND WESTERN NE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT.
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA. MODERATE
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE AND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. RADAR SHOWED A WEAKENING TSTORM SOUTH OF RAWLINS.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AFTER MID EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. LIKE USUAL GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT...USHERING IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. THIS WILL BE A SHALLOW PUSH OF COOL AIR WITH
THE AIRMASS QUICKLY MODIFYING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WILL AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE 90S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT LIKE IS OCCURRING IN
THE PANHANDLE TODAY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON THE LOW SIDE
FRIDAY BUT THERE WILL BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WHICH MAY WORK EAST INTO THE PLAINS. MAIN CHANCES FOR
STORMS SHOULD BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOT EXPECTED.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AGAIN
NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR TO WORK WITH BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER BUT MOST
LIKELY MONSOON MOISTURE WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE CWA THIS PERIOD
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE SITUATED TO THE WEST AND A LARGE UPPER TROF
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER AIR
TO DROP OUT OF CANADA ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH THE CWA ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE COOLER AIR MASS. A COOL FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SFC HIGH THEN SETTING UP OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY
WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA. SOME RETURN OF MOISTURE
SHOULD HAPPEN TUESDAY WHILE AN UPPER SHORTWAVE DROPS SE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A DRIER REGIME
RETURNS WEDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS (GENERALLY LESS
THAN 15 KTS) BEHIND IT. MIDLVL CLOUDS WILL PASS NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH SUNRISE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTN ON FRI.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONE 301 WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AND HUMIDITY VALUES SLOWLY RECOVER. CRITICAL TO
NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ZONE 301 FRIDAY DUE TO
GUSTY WINDS AND HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS. ZONES 304 AND 306
WILL ALSO SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS. SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THIS WEEKEND
ALONG WITH LESS WINDS SO NOT EXPECTING CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT COULD SEE BREEZY WINDS WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAMSKI
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...SML




000
FXUS65 KCYS 250255
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
855 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 848 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE EARLY EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LIFTING QUICKLY NORTHEAST ACROSS MT AND THE DAKOTAS. TRAILING
WEAK VORT LOBE PROVIDED LIFT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA. THIS FEATURE HAS MOVED EAST INTO CENTRAL NE.
DRYING ALOFT WAS SPREADING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL WY...AND
WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST WY AND WESTERN NE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT.
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA. MODERATE
SOUTHWEST WINDS WIL DECREASE AND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. RADAR SHOWED A WEAKENING TSTORM SOUTH OF RAWLINS.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AFTER MID EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. LIKE USUAL GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT...USHERING IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. THIS WILL BE A SHALLOW PUSH OF COOL AIR WITH
THE AIRMASS QUICKLY MODIFYING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WILL AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE 90S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT LIKE IS OCCURRING IN
THE PANHANDLE TODAY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON THE LOW SIDE
FRIDAY BUT THERE WILL BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WHICH MAY WORK EAST INTO THE PLAINS. MAIN CHANCES FOR
STORMS SHOULD BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOT EXPECTED.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AGAIN
NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR TO WORK WITH BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER BUT MOST
LIKELY MONSOON MOISTURE WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE CWA THIS PERIOD
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE SITUATED TO THE WEST AND A LARGE UPPER TROF
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER AIR
TO DROP OUT OF CANADA ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH THE CWA ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE COOLER AIR MASS. A COOL FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SFC HIGH THEN SETTING UP OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY
WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA. SOME RETURN OF MOISTURE
SHOULD HAPPEN TUESDAY WHILE AN UPPER SHORTWAVE DROPS SE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A DRIER REGIME
RETURNS WEDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 619 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KEPT VCSH ACROSS THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH AROUND 03Z BUT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH. SOME GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD GUST TO 25 KT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY THROUGH LATE EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONE 301 WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AND HUMIDITY VALUES SLOWLY RECOVER. CRITICAL TO
NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ZONE 301 FRIDAY DUE TO
GUSTY WINDS AND HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS. ZONES 304 AND 306
WILL ALSO SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS. SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THIS WEEKEND
ALONG WITH LESS WINDS SO NOT EXPECTING CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT COULD SEE BREEZY WINDS WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAMSKI
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...SML







000
FXUS65 KCYS 250255
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
855 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 848 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE EARLY EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LIFTING QUICKLY NORTHEAST ACROSS MT AND THE DAKOTAS. TRAILING
WEAK VORT LOBE PROVIDED LIFT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA. THIS FEATURE HAS MOVED EAST INTO CENTRAL NE.
DRYING ALOFT WAS SPREADING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL WY...AND
WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST WY AND WESTERN NE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT.
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA. MODERATE
SOUTHWEST WINDS WIL DECREASE AND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. RADAR SHOWED A WEAKENING TSTORM SOUTH OF RAWLINS.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AFTER MID EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. LIKE USUAL GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT...USHERING IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. THIS WILL BE A SHALLOW PUSH OF COOL AIR WITH
THE AIRMASS QUICKLY MODIFYING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WILL AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE 90S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT LIKE IS OCCURRING IN
THE PANHANDLE TODAY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON THE LOW SIDE
FRIDAY BUT THERE WILL BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WHICH MAY WORK EAST INTO THE PLAINS. MAIN CHANCES FOR
STORMS SHOULD BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOT EXPECTED.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AGAIN
NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR TO WORK WITH BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER BUT MOST
LIKELY MONSOON MOISTURE WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE CWA THIS PERIOD
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE SITUATED TO THE WEST AND A LARGE UPPER TROF
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER AIR
TO DROP OUT OF CANADA ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH THE CWA ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE COOLER AIR MASS. A COOL FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SFC HIGH THEN SETTING UP OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY
WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA. SOME RETURN OF MOISTURE
SHOULD HAPPEN TUESDAY WHILE AN UPPER SHORTWAVE DROPS SE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A DRIER REGIME
RETURNS WEDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 619 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KEPT VCSH ACROSS THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH AROUND 03Z BUT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH. SOME GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD GUST TO 25 KT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY THROUGH LATE EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONE 301 WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AND HUMIDITY VALUES SLOWLY RECOVER. CRITICAL TO
NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ZONE 301 FRIDAY DUE TO
GUSTY WINDS AND HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS. ZONES 304 AND 306
WILL ALSO SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS. SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THIS WEEKEND
ALONG WITH LESS WINDS SO NOT EXPECTING CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT COULD SEE BREEZY WINDS WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAMSKI
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...SML






000
FXUS63 KUNR 250202
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
802 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 744 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES COLD FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
MONTANA. SMALL COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA IS PRODUCING SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

OBSERVATIONS ACROSS MONTANA SHOW WIND GUSTS 40-50KT ASSOCIATED
WITH COLD FRONT. 00Z NAM/RUC BRING AREA OF 6+MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES
THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA 06Z-09Z...WITH 40KT BL WINDS. HAVE
INCREASED FORECAST WINDS BEHIND FRONT...AND ISSUED WIND ADVISORY
FOR 45-55MPH GUSTS. POSSIBLE THAT RAPID CITY AREA EXCEEDS 60
MPH...THOUGH TIMING OF DAY NOT AS FAVORABLE. MAY NEED TO UPGRADE
TO HIGH WIND WARNING DEPENDING ON UPSTREAM TRENDS. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS IT PUSHES EAST OF FORECAST
AREA

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ISSUED AT 216
PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

POTENT NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT AND ISOLD TS CHANCES TONIGHT
INTO THE FA. FAST WESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SK/MB UPPER VORTEX WILL SUPPORT RENEWED SHRA/TS CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ADVANCES SE ACROSS CENTRAL SD.

A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON...LIMITING ISOLD TS CHANCES SAVE FOR PERHAPS OVER NE WY
WHERE HIGH TERRAIN MIX OUT OF THE CAP IS EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
STAUNCH CAPPING INVERSION BREAKS DOWN WITH HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING
SE PER THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH. FLOW EMBEDDED WEAK IMPULSES
ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT NE OUT OF
WY AND SUPPORT ISOLD TS OVER MUCH OF THE FA...ESP THE SE HALF.
ACTIVITY MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS A LL THETA-E RIDGE
SLOWLY SETTLES SOUTH...INDICATED WELL AT H7. GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES/AMPLE LL MOISTURE/AND BROAD SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT...HAVE CARRIED TS CHANCES THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT PERIOD.
ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS GIVEN
STEEP LL LAPSE RATES. SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER CELLS.
DECENT PRESSURE RISES EXPECTED /4 MB PER HR/ WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT...LIKELY SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS ACROSS
THE SD PLAINS IN CAA...ESP IN THE LEE OF THE BLACK HILLS. HAVE BUMPED
WINDS UP FOR THIS.

FRIDAY...DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY VIA BREEZY NW
WINDS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY MOST
PLACES...BUT STILL WARM WITH UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S EXPECTED. SK/MB
UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST...AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
POSITIONS OVER CENTRAL SD FRIDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERN PERIPHERY IMPULSE
WILL SUPPORT A POS THETA-E ADV REGIME CENTERED AROUND H7 THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT SE HALF. LSA/UVM FROM THIS IMPULSE COUPLED WITH
LIFT AT AROUND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE EXPECTED JET STREAK
SHOULD SUPPORT A DECENT CHANCE FOR SCT TS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...ESP
OVER SCENTRAL SD. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN MU
CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS.
DID RAISE POPS TO 30 WITH SOME 40S FAR SE. OTHERWISE...SLIGHTLY
COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH LOW 60S AND 50S COMMON.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL BEGIN TO
ROTATE AROUND THE WESTERN RIDGE AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AGAIN
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ESPECIALLY WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 744 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. LCL MVFR
VSBY/CIGS EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH A
PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-025-
     026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...7
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...7







000
FXUS63 KUNR 250202
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
802 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 744 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES COLD FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
MONTANA. SMALL COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA IS PRODUCING SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

OBSERVATIONS ACROSS MONTANA SHOW WIND GUSTS 40-50KT ASSOCIATED
WITH COLD FRONT. 00Z NAM/RUC BRING AREA OF 6+MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES
THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA 06Z-09Z...WITH 40KT BL WINDS. HAVE
INCREASED FORECAST WINDS BEHIND FRONT...AND ISSUED WIND ADVISORY
FOR 45-55MPH GUSTS. POSSIBLE THAT RAPID CITY AREA EXCEEDS 60
MPH...THOUGH TIMING OF DAY NOT AS FAVORABLE. MAY NEED TO UPGRADE
TO HIGH WIND WARNING DEPENDING ON UPSTREAM TRENDS. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS IT PUSHES EAST OF FORECAST
AREA

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ISSUED AT 216
PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

POTENT NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT AND ISOLD TS CHANCES TONIGHT
INTO THE FA. FAST WESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SK/MB UPPER VORTEX WILL SUPPORT RENEWED SHRA/TS CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ADVANCES SE ACROSS CENTRAL SD.

A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON...LIMITING ISOLD TS CHANCES SAVE FOR PERHAPS OVER NE WY
WHERE HIGH TERRAIN MIX OUT OF THE CAP IS EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
STAUNCH CAPPING INVERSION BREAKS DOWN WITH HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING
SE PER THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH. FLOW EMBEDDED WEAK IMPULSES
ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT NE OUT OF
WY AND SUPPORT ISOLD TS OVER MUCH OF THE FA...ESP THE SE HALF.
ACTIVITY MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS A LL THETA-E RIDGE
SLOWLY SETTLES SOUTH...INDICATED WELL AT H7. GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES/AMPLE LL MOISTURE/AND BROAD SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT...HAVE CARRIED TS CHANCES THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT PERIOD.
ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS GIVEN
STEEP LL LAPSE RATES. SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER CELLS.
DECENT PRESSURE RISES EXPECTED /4 MB PER HR/ WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT...LIKELY SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS ACROSS
THE SD PLAINS IN CAA...ESP IN THE LEE OF THE BLACK HILLS. HAVE BUMPED
WINDS UP FOR THIS.

FRIDAY...DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY VIA BREEZY NW
WINDS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY MOST
PLACES...BUT STILL WARM WITH UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S EXPECTED. SK/MB
UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST...AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
POSITIONS OVER CENTRAL SD FRIDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERN PERIPHERY IMPULSE
WILL SUPPORT A POS THETA-E ADV REGIME CENTERED AROUND H7 THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT SE HALF. LSA/UVM FROM THIS IMPULSE COUPLED WITH
LIFT AT AROUND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE EXPECTED JET STREAK
SHOULD SUPPORT A DECENT CHANCE FOR SCT TS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...ESP
OVER SCENTRAL SD. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN MU
CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS.
DID RAISE POPS TO 30 WITH SOME 40S FAR SE. OTHERWISE...SLIGHTLY
COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH LOW 60S AND 50S COMMON.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL BEGIN TO
ROTATE AROUND THE WESTERN RIDGE AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AGAIN
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ESPECIALLY WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 744 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. LCL MVFR
VSBY/CIGS EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH A
PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-025-
     026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...7
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...7







000
FXUS63 KUNR 250202
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
802 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 744 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES COLD FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
MONTANA. SMALL COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA IS PRODUCING SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

OBSERVATIONS ACROSS MONTANA SHOW WIND GUSTS 40-50KT ASSOCIATED
WITH COLD FRONT. 00Z NAM/RUC BRING AREA OF 6+MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES
THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA 06Z-09Z...WITH 40KT BL WINDS. HAVE
INCREASED FORECAST WINDS BEHIND FRONT...AND ISSUED WIND ADVISORY
FOR 45-55MPH GUSTS. POSSIBLE THAT RAPID CITY AREA EXCEEDS 60
MPH...THOUGH TIMING OF DAY NOT AS FAVORABLE. MAY NEED TO UPGRADE
TO HIGH WIND WARNING DEPENDING ON UPSTREAM TRENDS. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS IT PUSHES EAST OF FORECAST
AREA

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ISSUED AT 216
PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

POTENT NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT AND ISOLD TS CHANCES TONIGHT
INTO THE FA. FAST WESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SK/MB UPPER VORTEX WILL SUPPORT RENEWED SHRA/TS CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ADVANCES SE ACROSS CENTRAL SD.

A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON...LIMITING ISOLD TS CHANCES SAVE FOR PERHAPS OVER NE WY
WHERE HIGH TERRAIN MIX OUT OF THE CAP IS EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
STAUNCH CAPPING INVERSION BREAKS DOWN WITH HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING
SE PER THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH. FLOW EMBEDDED WEAK IMPULSES
ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT NE OUT OF
WY AND SUPPORT ISOLD TS OVER MUCH OF THE FA...ESP THE SE HALF.
ACTIVITY MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS A LL THETA-E RIDGE
SLOWLY SETTLES SOUTH...INDICATED WELL AT H7. GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES/AMPLE LL MOISTURE/AND BROAD SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT...HAVE CARRIED TS CHANCES THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT PERIOD.
ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS GIVEN
STEEP LL LAPSE RATES. SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER CELLS.
DECENT PRESSURE RISES EXPECTED /4 MB PER HR/ WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT...LIKELY SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS ACROSS
THE SD PLAINS IN CAA...ESP IN THE LEE OF THE BLACK HILLS. HAVE BUMPED
WINDS UP FOR THIS.

FRIDAY...DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY VIA BREEZY NW
WINDS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY MOST
PLACES...BUT STILL WARM WITH UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S EXPECTED. SK/MB
UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST...AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
POSITIONS OVER CENTRAL SD FRIDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERN PERIPHERY IMPULSE
WILL SUPPORT A POS THETA-E ADV REGIME CENTERED AROUND H7 THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT SE HALF. LSA/UVM FROM THIS IMPULSE COUPLED WITH
LIFT AT AROUND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE EXPECTED JET STREAK
SHOULD SUPPORT A DECENT CHANCE FOR SCT TS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...ESP
OVER SCENTRAL SD. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN MU
CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS.
DID RAISE POPS TO 30 WITH SOME 40S FAR SE. OTHERWISE...SLIGHTLY
COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH LOW 60S AND 50S COMMON.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL BEGIN TO
ROTATE AROUND THE WESTERN RIDGE AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AGAIN
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ESPECIALLY WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 744 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. LCL MVFR
VSBY/CIGS EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH A
PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-025-
     026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...7
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...7







000
FXUS63 KUNR 250202
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
802 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 744 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES COLD FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
MONTANA. SMALL COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA IS PRODUCING SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

OBSERVATIONS ACROSS MONTANA SHOW WIND GUSTS 40-50KT ASSOCIATED
WITH COLD FRONT. 00Z NAM/RUC BRING AREA OF 6+MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES
THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA 06Z-09Z...WITH 40KT BL WINDS. HAVE
INCREASED FORECAST WINDS BEHIND FRONT...AND ISSUED WIND ADVISORY
FOR 45-55MPH GUSTS. POSSIBLE THAT RAPID CITY AREA EXCEEDS 60
MPH...THOUGH TIMING OF DAY NOT AS FAVORABLE. MAY NEED TO UPGRADE
TO HIGH WIND WARNING DEPENDING ON UPSTREAM TRENDS. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS IT PUSHES EAST OF FORECAST
AREA

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ISSUED AT 216
PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

POTENT NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT AND ISOLD TS CHANCES TONIGHT
INTO THE FA. FAST WESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SK/MB UPPER VORTEX WILL SUPPORT RENEWED SHRA/TS CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ADVANCES SE ACROSS CENTRAL SD.

A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON...LIMITING ISOLD TS CHANCES SAVE FOR PERHAPS OVER NE WY
WHERE HIGH TERRAIN MIX OUT OF THE CAP IS EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
STAUNCH CAPPING INVERSION BREAKS DOWN WITH HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING
SE PER THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH. FLOW EMBEDDED WEAK IMPULSES
ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT NE OUT OF
WY AND SUPPORT ISOLD TS OVER MUCH OF THE FA...ESP THE SE HALF.
ACTIVITY MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS A LL THETA-E RIDGE
SLOWLY SETTLES SOUTH...INDICATED WELL AT H7. GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES/AMPLE LL MOISTURE/AND BROAD SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT...HAVE CARRIED TS CHANCES THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT PERIOD.
ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS GIVEN
STEEP LL LAPSE RATES. SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER CELLS.
DECENT PRESSURE RISES EXPECTED /4 MB PER HR/ WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT...LIKELY SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS ACROSS
THE SD PLAINS IN CAA...ESP IN THE LEE OF THE BLACK HILLS. HAVE BUMPED
WINDS UP FOR THIS.

FRIDAY...DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY VIA BREEZY NW
WINDS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY MOST
PLACES...BUT STILL WARM WITH UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S EXPECTED. SK/MB
UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST...AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
POSITIONS OVER CENTRAL SD FRIDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERN PERIPHERY IMPULSE
WILL SUPPORT A POS THETA-E ADV REGIME CENTERED AROUND H7 THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT SE HALF. LSA/UVM FROM THIS IMPULSE COUPLED WITH
LIFT AT AROUND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE EXPECTED JET STREAK
SHOULD SUPPORT A DECENT CHANCE FOR SCT TS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...ESP
OVER SCENTRAL SD. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN MU
CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS.
DID RAISE POPS TO 30 WITH SOME 40S FAR SE. OTHERWISE...SLIGHTLY
COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH LOW 60S AND 50S COMMON.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL BEGIN TO
ROTATE AROUND THE WESTERN RIDGE AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AGAIN
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ESPECIALLY WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 744 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. LCL MVFR
VSBY/CIGS EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH A
PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-025-
     026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...7
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...7







000
FXUS65 KCYS 250022
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
622 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. LIKE USUAL GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT...USHERING IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. THIS WILL BE A SHALLOW PUSH OF COOL AIR WITH
THE AIRMASS QUICKLY MODIFYING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WILL AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE 90S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT LIKE IS OCCURRING IN
THE PANHANDLE TODAY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON THE LOW SIDE
FRIDAY BUT THERE WILL BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WHICH MAY WORK EAST INTO THE PLAINS. MAIN CHANCES FOR
STORMS SHOULD BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOT EXPECTED.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AGAIN
NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR TO WORK WITH BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER BUT MOST
LIKELY MONSOON MOISTURE WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE CWA THIS PERIOD
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE SITUATED TO THE WEST AND A LARGE UPPER TROF
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER AIR
TO DROP OUT OF CANADA ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH THE CWA ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE COOLER AIR MASS. A COOL FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SFC HIGH THEN SETTING UP OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY
WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA. SOME RETURN OF MOISTURE
SHOULD HAPPEN TUESDAY WHILE AN UPPER SHORTWAVE DROPS SE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A DRIER REGIME
RETURNS WEDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 619 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KEPT VCSH ACROSS THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH AROUND 03Z BUT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH. SOME GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD GUST TO 25 KTS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY THROUGH LATE EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONE 301 WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AND HUMIDITY VALUES SLOWLY RECOVER. CRITICAL TO
NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ZONE 301 FRIDAY DUE TO
GUSTY WINDS AND HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS. ZONES 304 AND 306
WILL ALSO SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS. SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THIS WEEKEND
ALONG WITH LESS WINDS SO NOT EXPECTING CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT COULD SEE BREEZY WINDS WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...SML




000
FXUS65 KCYS 250022
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
622 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. LIKE USUAL GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT...USHERING IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. THIS WILL BE A SHALLOW PUSH OF COOL AIR WITH
THE AIRMASS QUICKLY MODIFYING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WILL AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE 90S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT LIKE IS OCCURRING IN
THE PANHANDLE TODAY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON THE LOW SIDE
FRIDAY BUT THERE WILL BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WHICH MAY WORK EAST INTO THE PLAINS. MAIN CHANCES FOR
STORMS SHOULD BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOT EXPECTED.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AGAIN
NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR TO WORK WITH BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER BUT MOST
LIKELY MONSOON MOISTURE WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE CWA THIS PERIOD
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE SITUATED TO THE WEST AND A LARGE UPPER TROF
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER AIR
TO DROP OUT OF CANADA ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH THE CWA ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE COOLER AIR MASS. A COOL FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SFC HIGH THEN SETTING UP OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY
WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA. SOME RETURN OF MOISTURE
SHOULD HAPPEN TUESDAY WHILE AN UPPER SHORTWAVE DROPS SE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A DRIER REGIME
RETURNS WEDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 619 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KEPT VCSH ACROSS THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH AROUND 03Z BUT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH. SOME GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD GUST TO 25 KTS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY THROUGH LATE EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONE 301 WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AND HUMIDITY VALUES SLOWLY RECOVER. CRITICAL TO
NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ZONE 301 FRIDAY DUE TO
GUSTY WINDS AND HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS. ZONES 304 AND 306
WILL ALSO SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS. SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THIS WEEKEND
ALONG WITH LESS WINDS SO NOT EXPECTING CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT COULD SEE BREEZY WINDS WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...SML





000
FXUS65 KRIW 242141
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
341 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

SUBTROPICAL PLUME WHICH BROUGHT WEAK MORNING CONVECTION WITH GUSTY
WIND TO 40 MPH IS NOW BRINGING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MIX FOR
OUR SERN THIRD. AIRMASS HAS ACTUALLY JUICED UP IN THE FAR SOUTH SO
RED FLAG WARNING IS ACTUALLY STRUGGLING TO VERIFY DUE TO THE HIGHER
DEW POINTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...HOT AND DUSTY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FURTHER NORTH. ONE OTHER ITEM OF NOTE TODAY IS
SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTION GOING ON IN CENTRAL WYO WITH STRONG SW
WINDS MIXING DOWN AT TIMES BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH. BEEFED UP WINDS
SOME MORE TO COVER THIS. ONE AREA TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WILL BE OUR NERN ZONES WHERE SURFACE LOW IS SITTING WITH VERY
MOIST AIRMASS JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY AIDED BY
APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA SO
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS EXIST FOR A COUPLE HOURS INTO
THE EVENING UP THERE IN JOHNSON COUNTY. FLOW TURNS MORE WLY ON
FRIDAY SO MONSOONAL PLUME SHOULD BE PUSHED SOUTH TO THE NRN CO
BORDER WITH ONLY FAR SERN SWEETWATER SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD
TSTMS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SAGS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WYO TONIGHT
WILL WASH OUR ON FRIDAY ACROSS ALL BUT POTENTIALLY THE NERN ZONES
LEADING TO ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH LOW RH`S AND GUSTY WEST WIND.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN AND MONTANA BORDER WILL
CAUSE THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO FLATTEN FRIDAY EVENING. THE
RESULTANT ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN DRY...THOUGH THE INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK TO AMPLIFY AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE SYSTEM AMPLIFIES...IT MAY
PERMIT SOME MOISTURE TO MOVE INT SOUTHERN WYOMING SATURDAY WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER POSSIBLE.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND MOVE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER WESTERN WYOMING BY SUNDAY EVENING.
THE AXIS WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE FULLY INTO THE STATE AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. DISTURBANCES WILL
BRING REPEATING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT IS POSSIBLE DURING
THESE SHOWERS...WHICH INCREASES THE CHANCES FOR ACTIVITY ACROSS
FAVORED LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
FLUCTUATE SIGNIFICANTLY EACH DAY. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUD
COVER...SHOWERS...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERMIT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT EACH AFTERNOON.

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH OUTFLOW WINDS OF
40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IN THE
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA INCLUDING KRKS AND KCPR. ISOLATED
STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN JOHNSON COUNTY UNTIL 03Z. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AROUND 01Z FRIDAY AND
THEN MOVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WYOMING BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z FRIDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED EAST ON FRIDAY BY A DRY...HOT...
WESTERLY FLOW WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF SWEETWATER COUNTY WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE.

.FIRE WEATHER...

..RED FLAG WARNINGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z SATURDAY FOR FIRE ZONES
275...276...279...280...281...282...283...285...287 AND 300...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR 275...281 AND 282 UNTIL
9 PM THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RH.

THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES...LOW RH`S...HAINES INDEX OF 5
TO 6 AND GUSTY WEST WIND WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE COME UP SOME
IN 279 TODAY BUT IT WILL DRY OUT MORE AGAIN ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT MORE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE IS A COOL FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES
TONIGHT BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BE PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT A DRY...HOT WESTERLY WIND. MANY AREAS WILL SEE
WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
GUSTS VARYING FROM 30 TO 35 MPH. ISOLATED GUSTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR 279...280...289 AND 300 THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE WARM TO HOT WITH GUSTY
WIND AT TIMES WITH MIN RH`S BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT. CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE IN 279 THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT FRIDAY
WYZ276-279-280-283-285-287-300.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING WYZ275-281-282.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKRBAC
LONG TERM...BRANHAM
AVIATION...SKRBAC
FIRE WEATHER...SKRBAC







000
FXUS65 KRIW 242141
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
341 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

SUBTROPICAL PLUME WHICH BROUGHT WEAK MORNING CONVECTION WITH GUSTY
WIND TO 40 MPH IS NOW BRINGING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MIX FOR
OUR SERN THIRD. AIRMASS HAS ACTUALLY JUICED UP IN THE FAR SOUTH SO
RED FLAG WARNING IS ACTUALLY STRUGGLING TO VERIFY DUE TO THE HIGHER
DEW POINTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...HOT AND DUSTY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FURTHER NORTH. ONE OTHER ITEM OF NOTE TODAY IS
SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTION GOING ON IN CENTRAL WYO WITH STRONG SW
WINDS MIXING DOWN AT TIMES BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH. BEEFED UP WINDS
SOME MORE TO COVER THIS. ONE AREA TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WILL BE OUR NERN ZONES WHERE SURFACE LOW IS SITTING WITH VERY
MOIST AIRMASS JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY AIDED BY
APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA SO
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS EXIST FOR A COUPLE HOURS INTO
THE EVENING UP THERE IN JOHNSON COUNTY. FLOW TURNS MORE WLY ON
FRIDAY SO MONSOONAL PLUME SHOULD BE PUSHED SOUTH TO THE NRN CO
BORDER WITH ONLY FAR SERN SWEETWATER SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD
TSTMS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SAGS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WYO TONIGHT
WILL WASH OUR ON FRIDAY ACROSS ALL BUT POTENTIALLY THE NERN ZONES
LEADING TO ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH LOW RH`S AND GUSTY WEST WIND.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN AND MONTANA BORDER WILL
CAUSE THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO FLATTEN FRIDAY EVENING. THE
RESULTANT ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN DRY...THOUGH THE INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK TO AMPLIFY AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE SYSTEM AMPLIFIES...IT MAY
PERMIT SOME MOISTURE TO MOVE INT SOUTHERN WYOMING SATURDAY WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER POSSIBLE.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND MOVE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER WESTERN WYOMING BY SUNDAY EVENING.
THE AXIS WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE FULLY INTO THE STATE AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. DISTURBANCES WILL
BRING REPEATING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT IS POSSIBLE DURING
THESE SHOWERS...WHICH INCREASES THE CHANCES FOR ACTIVITY ACROSS
FAVORED LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
FLUCTUATE SIGNIFICANTLY EACH DAY. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUD
COVER...SHOWERS...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERMIT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT EACH AFTERNOON.

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH OUTFLOW WINDS OF
40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IN THE
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA INCLUDING KRKS AND KCPR. ISOLATED
STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN JOHNSON COUNTY UNTIL 03Z. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AROUND 01Z FRIDAY AND
THEN MOVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WYOMING BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z FRIDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED EAST ON FRIDAY BY A DRY...HOT...
WESTERLY FLOW WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF SWEETWATER COUNTY WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE.

.FIRE WEATHER...

..RED FLAG WARNINGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z SATURDAY FOR FIRE ZONES
275...276...279...280...281...282...283...285...287 AND 300...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR 275...281 AND 282 UNTIL
9 PM THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RH.

THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES...LOW RH`S...HAINES INDEX OF 5
TO 6 AND GUSTY WEST WIND WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE COME UP SOME
IN 279 TODAY BUT IT WILL DRY OUT MORE AGAIN ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT MORE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE IS A COOL FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES
TONIGHT BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BE PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT A DRY...HOT WESTERLY WIND. MANY AREAS WILL SEE
WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
GUSTS VARYING FROM 30 TO 35 MPH. ISOLATED GUSTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR 279...280...289 AND 300 THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE WARM TO HOT WITH GUSTY
WIND AT TIMES WITH MIN RH`S BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT. CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE IN 279 THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT FRIDAY
WYZ276-279-280-283-285-287-300.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING WYZ275-281-282.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKRBAC
LONG TERM...BRANHAM
AVIATION...SKRBAC
FIRE WEATHER...SKRBAC






000
FXUS65 KCYS 242049
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
249 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. LIKE USUAL GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT...USHERING IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. THIS WILL BE A SHALLOW PUSH OF COOL AIR WITH
THE AIRMASS QUICKLY MODIFYING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WILL AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE 90S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT LIKE IS OCCURRING IN
THE PANHANDLE TODAY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON THE LOW SIDE
FRIDAY BUT THERE WILL BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WHICH MAY WORK EAST INTO THE PLAINS. MAIN CHANCES FOR
STORMS SHOULD BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOT EXPECTED.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AGAIN
NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR TO WORK WITH BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER BUT MOST
LIKELY MONSOON MOISTURE WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE CWA THIS PERIOD
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE SITUATED TO THE WEST AND A LARGE UPPER TROF
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER AIR
TO DROP OUT OF CANADA ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH THE CWA ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE COOLER AIR MASS. A COOL FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SFC HIGH THEN SETTING UP OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY
WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA. SOME RETURN OF MOISTURE
SHOULD HAPPEN TUESDAY WHILE AN UPPER SHORTWAVE DROPS SE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A DRIER REGIME
RETURNS WEDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING PRODUCING LOCALIZED GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ALONG WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR VSBYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONE 301 WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AND HUMIDITY VALUES SLOWLY RECOVER. CRITICAL TO
NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ZONE 301 FRIDAY DUE TO
GUSTY WINDS AND HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS. ZONES 304 AND 306
WILL ALSO SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS. SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THIS WEEKEND
ALONG WITH LESS WINDS SO NOT EXPECTING CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT COULD SEE BREEZY WINDS WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...SML




000
FXUS65 KCYS 242049
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
249 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. LIKE USUAL GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT...USHERING IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. THIS WILL BE A SHALLOW PUSH OF COOL AIR WITH
THE AIRMASS QUICKLY MODIFYING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WILL AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE 90S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT LIKE IS OCCURRING IN
THE PANHANDLE TODAY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON THE LOW SIDE
FRIDAY BUT THERE WILL BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WHICH MAY WORK EAST INTO THE PLAINS. MAIN CHANCES FOR
STORMS SHOULD BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOT EXPECTED.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AGAIN
NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR TO WORK WITH BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER BUT MOST
LIKELY MONSOON MOISTURE WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE CWA THIS PERIOD
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE SITUATED TO THE WEST AND A LARGE UPPER TROF
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER AIR
TO DROP OUT OF CANADA ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH THE CWA ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE COOLER AIR MASS. A COOL FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SFC HIGH THEN SETTING UP OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY
WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA. SOME RETURN OF MOISTURE
SHOULD HAPPEN TUESDAY WHILE AN UPPER SHORTWAVE DROPS SE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A DRIER REGIME
RETURNS WEDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING PRODUCING LOCALIZED GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ALONG WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR VSBYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONE 301 WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AND HUMIDITY VALUES SLOWLY RECOVER. CRITICAL TO
NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ZONE 301 FRIDAY DUE TO
GUSTY WINDS AND HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS. ZONES 304 AND 306
WILL ALSO SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS. SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THIS WEEKEND
ALONG WITH LESS WINDS SO NOT EXPECTING CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT COULD SEE BREEZY WINDS WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...SML





000
FXUS63 KUNR 242017
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
217 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

POTENT NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT AND ISOLD TS CHANCES TONIGHT
INTO THE FA. FAST WESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SK/MB UPPER VORTEX WILL SUPPORT RENEWED SHRA/TS CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ADVANCES SE ACROSS CENTRAL SD.

A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON...LIMITING ISOLD TS CHANCES SAVE FOR PERHAPS OVER NE WY
WHERE HIGH TERRAIN MIX OUT OF THE CAP IS EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
STAUNCH CAPPING INVERSION BREAKS DOWN WITH HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING
SE PER THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH. FLOW EMBEDDED WEAK IMPULSES
ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT NE OUT OF
WY AND SUPPORT ISOLD TS OVER MUCH OF THE FA...ESP THE SE HALF.
ACTIVITY MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS A LL THETA-E RIDGE
SLOWLY SETTLES SOUTH...INDICATED WELL AT H7. GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES/AMPLE LL MOISTURE/AND BROAD SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT...HAVE CARRIED TS CHANCES THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT PERIOD.
ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS GIVEN
STEEP LL LAPSE RATES. SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER CELLS.
DECENT PRESSURE RISES EXPECTED /4 MB PER HR/ WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT...LIKELY SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS ACROSS
THE SD PLAINS IN CAA...ESP IN THE LEE OF THE BLACK HILLS. HAVE BUMPED
WINDS UP FOR THIS.

FRIDAY...DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY VIA BREEZY NW
WINDS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY MOST
PLACES...BUT STILL WARM WITH UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S EXPECTED. SK/MB
UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST...AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
POSITIONS OVER CENTRAL SD FRIDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERN PERIPHERY IMPULSE
WILL SUPPORT A POS THETA-E ADV REGIME CENTERED AROUND H7 THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT SE HALF. LSA/UVM FROM THIS IMPULSE COUPLED WITH
LIFT AT AROUND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE EXPECTED JET STREAK
SHOULD SUPPORT A DECENT CHANCE FOR SCT TS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...ESP
OVER SCENTRAL SD. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN MU
CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS.
DID RAISE POPS TO 30 WITH SOME 40S FAR SE. OTHERWISE...SLIGHTLY
COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH LOW 60S AND 50S COMMON.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL BEGIN TO
ROTATE AROUND THE WESTERN RIDGE AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AGAIN
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ESPECIALLY WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY...WITH CHANCES SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN SD TONIGHT AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOR A BRIEF TIME ACROSS THE WESTERN SD
PLAINS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26







000
FXUS65 KRIW 242000
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
200 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

SUBTROPICAL PLUME WHICH BROUGHT WEAK MORNING CONVECTION WITH GUSTY
WIND TO 40 MPH IS NOW BRINGING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MIX FOR
OUR SERN THIRD. AIRMASS HAS ACTUALLY JUICED UP IN THE FAR SOUTH SO
RED FLAG WARNING IS ACTUALLY STRUGGLING TO VERIFY DUE TO THE HIGHER
DEW POINTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...HOT AND DUSTY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FURTHER NORTH. ONE OTHER ITEM OF NOTE TODAY IS
SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTION GOING ON IN CENTRAL WYO WITH STRONG SW
WINDS MIXING DOWN AT TIMES BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH. BEEFED UP WINDS
SOME MORE TO COVER THIS. ONE AREA TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WILL BE OUR NERN ZONES WHERE SURFACE LOW IS SITTING WITH VERY
MOIST AIRMASS JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY AIDED BY
APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA SO
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS EXIST FOR A COUPLE HOURS INTO
THE EVENING UP THERE IN JOHNSON COUNTY. FLOW TURNS MORE WLY ON
FRIDAY SO MONSOONAL PLUME SHOULD BE PUSHED SOUTH TO THE NRN CO
BORDER WITH ONLY FAR SERN SWEETWATER SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD
TSTMS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SAGS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WYO TONIGHT
WILL WASH OUR ON FRIDAY ACROSS ALL BUT POTENTIALLY THE NERN ZONES
LEADING TO ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH LOW RH`S AND GUSTY WEST WIND.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN AND MONTANA BORDER WILL
CAUSE THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO FLATTEN FRIDAY EVENING. THE
RESULTANT ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN DRY...THOUGH THE INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK TO AMPLIFY AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE SYSTEM AMPLIFIES...IT MAY
PERMIT SOME MOISTURE TO MOVE INT SOUTHERN WYOMING SATURDAY WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER POSSIBLE.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND MOVE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER WESTERN WYOMING BY SUNDAY EVENING.
THE AXIS WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE FULLY INTO THE STATE AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. DISTURBANCES WILL
BRING REPEATING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT IS POSSIBLE DURING
THESE SHOWERS...WHICH INCREASES THE CHANCES FOR ACTIVITY ACROSS
FAVORED LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
FLUCTUATE SIGNIFICANTLY EACH DAY. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUD
COVER...SHOWERS...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERMIT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT EACH AFTERNOON.

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH OUTFLOW WINDS OF
40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IN THE
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA INCLUDING KRKS AND KCPR. ISOLATED
STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN JOHNSON COUNTY UNTIL 03Z. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AROUND 01Z FRIDAY AND
THEN MOVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WYOMING BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z FRIDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED EAST ON FRIDAY BY A DRY...HOT...
WESTERLY FLOW WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF SWEETWATER COUNTY WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE.

.FIRE WEATHER...

...RED FLAG WARNINGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z SATURDAY FOR FIRE ZONES
276...279...280...283...285...287 AND 300...

THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES...LOW RH`S...HAINES INDEX OF 5
TO 6 AND GUSTY WEST WIND WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE COME UP SOME
IN 279 TODAY BUT IT WILL DRY OUT MORE AGAIN ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT MORE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE IS A COOL FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES
TONIGHT BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BE PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT A DRY...HOT WESTERLY WIND. MANY AREAS WILL SEE
WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
GUSTS VARYING FROM 30 TO 35 MPH. ISOLATED GUSTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR 279...280...289 AND 300 THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE WARM TO HOT WITH GUSTY
WIND AT TIMES WITH MIN RH`S BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT. CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE IN 279 THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT FRIDAY
WYZ276-279-280-283-285-287-300.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKRBAC
LONG TERM...BRANHAM
AVIATION...SKRBAC
FIRE WEATHER...SKRBAC










000
FXUS65 KRIW 242000
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
200 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

SUBTROPICAL PLUME WHICH BROUGHT WEAK MORNING CONVECTION WITH GUSTY
WIND TO 40 MPH IS NOW BRINGING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MIX FOR
OUR SERN THIRD. AIRMASS HAS ACTUALLY JUICED UP IN THE FAR SOUTH SO
RED FLAG WARNING IS ACTUALLY STRUGGLING TO VERIFY DUE TO THE HIGHER
DEW POINTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...HOT AND DUSTY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FURTHER NORTH. ONE OTHER ITEM OF NOTE TODAY IS
SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTION GOING ON IN CENTRAL WYO WITH STRONG SW
WINDS MIXING DOWN AT TIMES BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH. BEEFED UP WINDS
SOME MORE TO COVER THIS. ONE AREA TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WILL BE OUR NERN ZONES WHERE SURFACE LOW IS SITTING WITH VERY
MOIST AIRMASS JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY AIDED BY
APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA SO
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS EXIST FOR A COUPLE HOURS INTO
THE EVENING UP THERE IN JOHNSON COUNTY. FLOW TURNS MORE WLY ON
FRIDAY SO MONSOONAL PLUME SHOULD BE PUSHED SOUTH TO THE NRN CO
BORDER WITH ONLY FAR SERN SWEETWATER SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD
TSTMS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SAGS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WYO TONIGHT
WILL WASH OUR ON FRIDAY ACROSS ALL BUT POTENTIALLY THE NERN ZONES
LEADING TO ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH LOW RH`S AND GUSTY WEST WIND.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN AND MONTANA BORDER WILL
CAUSE THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO FLATTEN FRIDAY EVENING. THE
RESULTANT ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN DRY...THOUGH THE INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK TO AMPLIFY AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE SYSTEM AMPLIFIES...IT MAY
PERMIT SOME MOISTURE TO MOVE INT SOUTHERN WYOMING SATURDAY WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER POSSIBLE.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND MOVE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER WESTERN WYOMING BY SUNDAY EVENING.
THE AXIS WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE FULLY INTO THE STATE AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. DISTURBANCES WILL
BRING REPEATING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT IS POSSIBLE DURING
THESE SHOWERS...WHICH INCREASES THE CHANCES FOR ACTIVITY ACROSS
FAVORED LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
FLUCTUATE SIGNIFICANTLY EACH DAY. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUD
COVER...SHOWERS...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERMIT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT EACH AFTERNOON.

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH OUTFLOW WINDS OF
40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IN THE
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA INCLUDING KRKS AND KCPR. ISOLATED
STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN JOHNSON COUNTY UNTIL 03Z. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AROUND 01Z FRIDAY AND
THEN MOVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WYOMING BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z FRIDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED EAST ON FRIDAY BY A DRY...HOT...
WESTERLY FLOW WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF SWEETWATER COUNTY WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE.

.FIRE WEATHER...

...RED FLAG WARNINGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z SATURDAY FOR FIRE ZONES
276...279...280...283...285...287 AND 300...

THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES...LOW RH`S...HAINES INDEX OF 5
TO 6 AND GUSTY WEST WIND WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE COME UP SOME
IN 279 TODAY BUT IT WILL DRY OUT MORE AGAIN ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT MORE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE IS A COOL FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES
TONIGHT BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BE PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT A DRY...HOT WESTERLY WIND. MANY AREAS WILL SEE
WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
GUSTS VARYING FROM 30 TO 35 MPH. ISOLATED GUSTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR 279...280...289 AND 300 THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE WARM TO HOT WITH GUSTY
WIND AT TIMES WITH MIN RH`S BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT. CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE IN 279 THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT FRIDAY
WYZ276-279-280-283-285-287-300.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKRBAC
LONG TERM...BRANHAM
AVIATION...SKRBAC
FIRE WEATHER...SKRBAC










000
FXUS65 KRIW 242000
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
200 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

SUBTROPICAL PLUME WHICH BROUGHT WEAK MORNING CONVECTION WITH GUSTY
WIND TO 40 MPH IS NOW BRINGING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MIX FOR
OUR SERN THIRD. AIRMASS HAS ACTUALLY JUICED UP IN THE FAR SOUTH SO
RED FLAG WARNING IS ACTUALLY STRUGGLING TO VERIFY DUE TO THE HIGHER
DEW POINTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...HOT AND DUSTY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FURTHER NORTH. ONE OTHER ITEM OF NOTE TODAY IS
SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTION GOING ON IN CENTRAL WYO WITH STRONG SW
WINDS MIXING DOWN AT TIMES BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH. BEEFED UP WINDS
SOME MORE TO COVER THIS. ONE AREA TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WILL BE OUR NERN ZONES WHERE SURFACE LOW IS SITTING WITH VERY
MOIST AIRMASS JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY AIDED BY
APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA SO
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS EXIST FOR A COUPLE HOURS INTO
THE EVENING UP THERE IN JOHNSON COUNTY. FLOW TURNS MORE WLY ON
FRIDAY SO MONSOONAL PLUME SHOULD BE PUSHED SOUTH TO THE NRN CO
BORDER WITH ONLY FAR SERN SWEETWATER SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD
TSTMS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SAGS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WYO TONIGHT
WILL WASH OUR ON FRIDAY ACROSS ALL BUT POTENTIALLY THE NERN ZONES
LEADING TO ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH LOW RH`S AND GUSTY WEST WIND.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN AND MONTANA BORDER WILL
CAUSE THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO FLATTEN FRIDAY EVENING. THE
RESULTANT ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN DRY...THOUGH THE INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK TO AMPLIFY AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE SYSTEM AMPLIFIES...IT MAY
PERMIT SOME MOISTURE TO MOVE INT SOUTHERN WYOMING SATURDAY WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER POSSIBLE.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND MOVE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER WESTERN WYOMING BY SUNDAY EVENING.
THE AXIS WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE FULLY INTO THE STATE AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. DISTURBANCES WILL
BRING REPEATING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT IS POSSIBLE DURING
THESE SHOWERS...WHICH INCREASES THE CHANCES FOR ACTIVITY ACROSS
FAVORED LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
FLUCTUATE SIGNIFICANTLY EACH DAY. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUD
COVER...SHOWERS...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERMIT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT EACH AFTERNOON.

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH OUTFLOW WINDS OF
40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IN THE
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA INCLUDING KRKS AND KCPR. ISOLATED
STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN JOHNSON COUNTY UNTIL 03Z. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AROUND 01Z FRIDAY AND
THEN MOVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WYOMING BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z FRIDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED EAST ON FRIDAY BY A DRY...HOT...
WESTERLY FLOW WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF SWEETWATER COUNTY WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE.

.FIRE WEATHER...

...RED FLAG WARNINGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z SATURDAY FOR FIRE ZONES
276...279...280...283...285...287 AND 300...

THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES...LOW RH`S...HAINES INDEX OF 5
TO 6 AND GUSTY WEST WIND WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE COME UP SOME
IN 279 TODAY BUT IT WILL DRY OUT MORE AGAIN ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT MORE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE IS A COOL FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES
TONIGHT BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BE PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT A DRY...HOT WESTERLY WIND. MANY AREAS WILL SEE
WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
GUSTS VARYING FROM 30 TO 35 MPH. ISOLATED GUSTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR 279...280...289 AND 300 THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE WARM TO HOT WITH GUSTY
WIND AT TIMES WITH MIN RH`S BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT. CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE IN 279 THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT FRIDAY
WYZ276-279-280-283-285-287-300.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKRBAC
LONG TERM...BRANHAM
AVIATION...SKRBAC
FIRE WEATHER...SKRBAC










000
FXUS65 KRIW 242000
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
200 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

SUBTROPICAL PLUME WHICH BROUGHT WEAK MORNING CONVECTION WITH GUSTY
WIND TO 40 MPH IS NOW BRINGING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MIX FOR
OUR SERN THIRD. AIRMASS HAS ACTUALLY JUICED UP IN THE FAR SOUTH SO
RED FLAG WARNING IS ACTUALLY STRUGGLING TO VERIFY DUE TO THE HIGHER
DEW POINTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...HOT AND DUSTY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FURTHER NORTH. ONE OTHER ITEM OF NOTE TODAY IS
SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTION GOING ON IN CENTRAL WYO WITH STRONG SW
WINDS MIXING DOWN AT TIMES BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH. BEEFED UP WINDS
SOME MORE TO COVER THIS. ONE AREA TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WILL BE OUR NERN ZONES WHERE SURFACE LOW IS SITTING WITH VERY
MOIST AIRMASS JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY AIDED BY
APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA SO
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS EXIST FOR A COUPLE HOURS INTO
THE EVENING UP THERE IN JOHNSON COUNTY. FLOW TURNS MORE WLY ON
FRIDAY SO MONSOONAL PLUME SHOULD BE PUSHED SOUTH TO THE NRN CO
BORDER WITH ONLY FAR SERN SWEETWATER SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD
TSTMS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SAGS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WYO TONIGHT
WILL WASH OUR ON FRIDAY ACROSS ALL BUT POTENTIALLY THE NERN ZONES
LEADING TO ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH LOW RH`S AND GUSTY WEST WIND.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN AND MONTANA BORDER WILL
CAUSE THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO FLATTEN FRIDAY EVENING. THE
RESULTANT ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN DRY...THOUGH THE INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK TO AMPLIFY AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE SYSTEM AMPLIFIES...IT MAY
PERMIT SOME MOISTURE TO MOVE INT SOUTHERN WYOMING SATURDAY WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER POSSIBLE.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND MOVE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER WESTERN WYOMING BY SUNDAY EVENING.
THE AXIS WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE FULLY INTO THE STATE AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. DISTURBANCES WILL
BRING REPEATING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT IS POSSIBLE DURING
THESE SHOWERS...WHICH INCREASES THE CHANCES FOR ACTIVITY ACROSS
FAVORED LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
FLUCTUATE SIGNIFICANTLY EACH DAY. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUD
COVER...SHOWERS...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERMIT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT EACH AFTERNOON.

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH OUTFLOW WINDS OF
40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IN THE
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA INCLUDING KRKS AND KCPR. ISOLATED
STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN JOHNSON COUNTY UNTIL 03Z. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AROUND 01Z FRIDAY AND
THEN MOVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WYOMING BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z FRIDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED EAST ON FRIDAY BY A DRY...HOT...
WESTERLY FLOW WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF SWEETWATER COUNTY WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE.

.FIRE WEATHER...

...RED FLAG WARNINGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z SATURDAY FOR FIRE ZONES
276...279...280...283...285...287 AND 300...

THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES...LOW RH`S...HAINES INDEX OF 5
TO 6 AND GUSTY WEST WIND WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE COME UP SOME
IN 279 TODAY BUT IT WILL DRY OUT MORE AGAIN ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT MORE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE IS A COOL FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES
TONIGHT BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BE PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT A DRY...HOT WESTERLY WIND. MANY AREAS WILL SEE
WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
GUSTS VARYING FROM 30 TO 35 MPH. ISOLATED GUSTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR 279...280...289 AND 300 THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE WARM TO HOT WITH GUSTY
WIND AT TIMES WITH MIN RH`S BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT. CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE IN 279 THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT FRIDAY
WYZ276-279-280-283-285-287-300.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKRBAC
LONG TERM...BRANHAM
AVIATION...SKRBAC
FIRE WEATHER...SKRBAC










000
FXUS63 KUNR 241756
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1156 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 258 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

SMALL SHORTWAVE TOPPING RIDGE AXIS IS TRIGGERING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHWESTERN SD THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS
THEY MOVE EAST. ON THE SURFACE...LEE TROF EXTENDS FROM EASTERN MT
INTO SOUTHEAST WY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS
MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...
INDICATED BY MERRIMAN PROFILER WITH 50 KT AT 850MB.

TODAY...RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
CROSSING FORECAST AREA ON SOUTHWEST FLOW. ALTHOUGH STRONGER
DYNAMICS WILL BE FARTHER NORTH INTO MT/ND/CANADA...OCCLUDED
FRONT TO SURFACE LOW AND DRYLINE TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE FROM
EASTERN WY ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWESTERN SD WHERE CAPE WILL BE
OVER 2000J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AND SOUTHWESTERN
SD WILL BE MORE ISOLATED...BUT COULD PRODUCE STRONG STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY
WARM OVER SOUTHWESTERN SD AS THERMAL RIDGE CROSSES WESTERN SD AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AND SKIES
CLEARING.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL FRIDAY BELOW THE DEEP UPPER LOW IN
SOUTHERN CANADA. A SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER SOUTHEASTERN WY WITH
RETURN FLOW FROM NE PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWESTERN SD AHEAD OF AN
INVERTED TROF NORTH OF THE LOW. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE TROF OVER SOUTHWESTERN SD AND BLACK HILLS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN SD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES COOLER...AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER ND-MN...WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS...SO WENT BELOW GUIDANCE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 258 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL BEGIN TO
ROTATE AROUND THE WESTERN RIDGE AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AGAIN
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOW CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS...WITH CHANCES SPREADING ACROSS
WESTERN SD TONIGHT...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...26







000
FXUS63 KUNR 241756
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1156 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 258 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

SMALL SHORTWAVE TOPPING RIDGE AXIS IS TRIGGERING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHWESTERN SD THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS
THEY MOVE EAST. ON THE SURFACE...LEE TROF EXTENDS FROM EASTERN MT
INTO SOUTHEAST WY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS
MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...
INDICATED BY MERRIMAN PROFILER WITH 50 KT AT 850MB.

TODAY...RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
CROSSING FORECAST AREA ON SOUTHWEST FLOW. ALTHOUGH STRONGER
DYNAMICS WILL BE FARTHER NORTH INTO MT/ND/CANADA...OCCLUDED
FRONT TO SURFACE LOW AND DRYLINE TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE FROM
EASTERN WY ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWESTERN SD WHERE CAPE WILL BE
OVER 2000J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AND SOUTHWESTERN
SD WILL BE MORE ISOLATED...BUT COULD PRODUCE STRONG STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY
WARM OVER SOUTHWESTERN SD AS THERMAL RIDGE CROSSES WESTERN SD AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AND SKIES
CLEARING.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL FRIDAY BELOW THE DEEP UPPER LOW IN
SOUTHERN CANADA. A SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER SOUTHEASTERN WY WITH
RETURN FLOW FROM NE PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWESTERN SD AHEAD OF AN
INVERTED TROF NORTH OF THE LOW. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE TROF OVER SOUTHWESTERN SD AND BLACK HILLS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN SD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES COOLER...AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER ND-MN...WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS...SO WENT BELOW GUIDANCE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 258 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL BEGIN TO
ROTATE AROUND THE WESTERN RIDGE AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AGAIN
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOW CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS...WITH CHANCES SPREADING ACROSS
WESTERN SD TONIGHT...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...26






000
FXUS65 KRIW 241716
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1116 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

WV IMAGERY SHOWING ROBUST UPR RIDGE...STILL SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO
UPR TROFS AND CENTERED OVER CO AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT
WITH THE DIRTY PORTION OF THE RIDGE CUTTING THROUGH WY AND UP INTO
ERN MT AND THE DAKOTAS. MOISTURE FROM THE NA MONSOON (LIKE FLOW) IS
NOW SET AND BEGINNING TO EVENTUALLY SPIN MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE S CNTRL CONUS...PERHAPS BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. IN
THE MEANTIME HOWEVER...DEEP DRY AIR WILL START TO FEED INTO THE FA
FROM THE SW CONUS TODAY AS THE AXIS PORTION OF THE RIDGE ROTATES EWD
AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES STRONGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL AND SW
ORIENTED.

UPR HIGH OVR SWRN CONUS STILL REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE MOST PART.
HOWEVER...THE N/S AMPLIFICATION OF THE HIGH OVR WY WILL START TO
FLATTEN TODAY AND BEGIN THE SLOW PROGRESSION TO ZONAL AND FINALLY NW
FLOW THRU THE WEEKEND. AS THE WRN COASTAL TROF PUSHES ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS BORDER REGION W/ CA...DECREASING HEIGHTS OVR WY ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES...STARTING TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPS COMING IN A FEW DEG
BELOW THOSE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE W AND NWRN CWA SEEING DROPS OF 5
TO 10 DEG. OTHERWISE...WEAK DISTURBANCES  EMBEDDED IN THE PERIPHERY
OF UPR HIGH THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO ROTATE CLOCKWISE ACROSS OR NEAR
THE FA...CONTINUING ISOLATED  CONVECTIVE CHANCES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH SMALL RAIN CORES...BUT  DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS
UP TO 55 MPH...OVR MAINLY THE SRN AND SWRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH A FEW OTHERS IN FREMONT AND JOHNSON COUNTIES. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THRU THE WRN TO NWRN FA LATER THIS MORNING
FROM OUT OF NRN UTAH...OFFERING MORE SMALL CHCS FOR PESKY EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION TO CONTINUE. THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER STRONGER
DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE NW CONUS LOW WILL COMBINE WITH SOME
MONSOONAL-ISH MOISTURE ACROSS S AND ERN WY...BRINGING YET ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...WITH THE USUAL LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WIND POSSIBLE FOR
ANOTHER DAY IN THIS AREA. A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE SFC LOW AND FRONT
SWINGING OUT OF MT AND STRENGTHENING OVR ERN WY WILL ALSO HELP FOCUS
CONVECTION OVR THE SAME REGION. HOWEVER...DRY AIR WILL BE WORKING
ITS WAY INTO THE FA THRU THE DAY FROM THE WEST...AND THIS WILL BE
THE LAST CHC FOR ANY PRECIP OR THUNDER THRU THE REST OF THIS FCST
PERIOD. FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER...WITH A DEEPER DRIER ATMOSPHERE AND
MORE STABLE TOO...WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION
EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY NEAR THE WY/CO BORDER. MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR
BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY IS THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER THAT WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN ZONES...WITH THE ADDITION OF THE
CODY FOOTHILLS. TODAY...HOT DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100
AGAIN WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPR SINGLE
DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS AND INCREASING SW WINDS (AS MENTIONED ABOVE)
ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE WHERE THE DRY FUEL STATUS IS NOW CRITICAL.
BOTH THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS ALONG WITH INCREASED UPR FLOW IN
RESPONSE TO THE PASSING OF THE UPR WAVE AND DEVELOPING LEE LOW WILL
INCREASE THE LOCAL P GRAD AND ALSO BRING STRONGER FLOW DOWN TO THE
SFC FROM ALOFT ADIABATICALLY...GIVING WINDY CONDITIONS OVR THE
CENTRAL...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FA. THE ADDITION OF A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WILL ALSO HELP TO EXACERBATE
THE SITUATION EVEN FURTHER TODAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT
FRIDAY EVEN WITH COOLER HIGH TEMPS AROUND...WITHOUT THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL HOWEVER. RED FLAG WARNING THEREFORE CONTINUES THROUGH FRI
EVENING FOR SRN CNTRL AND SERN FIRE ZONES...WITH THE ADDITION OF THE
CODY FOOTHILLS (STARTING TODAY AT NOON) AND ALSO RUN THRU FRI
EVENING.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...FLAT DRY ZONAL FLOW BEGINS THE TRANSITION TO DRY
NW FLOW. LEE SIDE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS...WITH ADDITIONAL COOLING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COOL
FRONT E OF THE DIVIDE...BUT SLIGHT WARMING W OF THE DIVIDE WHERE THE
FRONT WILL NOT BE A PRESENCE. THE SFC P GRAD SHOULD ALSO RELAX
SOMEWHAT OVR THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS AS THE LOW P SYSTEM MOVES
OFF...DECREASING W TO NW WINDS TO JUST BELOW WHAT WOULD BE NEEDED FOR
FURTHER RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...FIRE DANGER WILL
CERTAINLY BE ENHANCED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN FCST ZONES. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY WILL CARVE OUT A
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK...FORMING A
BLOCK OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH UPPER RIDGE CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE
DIVIDE AND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  THIS WILL PUT
WYOMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW FLOW ALOFT.  SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
THAT WAS SUPPRESSED BY ZONAL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY WITH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
THIS MOISTURE PLUME AND EMBEDDED SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ROUNDING
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND PUSHING E-SE ACROSS WYOMING ON MONDAY.
THIS "RING OF FIRE" PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK.  THE LAST WEEK OF JULY IS TYPICALLY WHEN WYOMING SEES
A BRIEF SURGE NWD OF THE SW MONSOON OR THE VERY HIGH 55+ DEWPOINTS
PUSHING UP FROM THE GREAT BASIN.  HOWEVER...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
THIS DEEPER LOW MOISTURE SUPPRESSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH.  HOWEVER...NW
FLOW WILL KEEP SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND AN
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE DIVIDE THROUGH THIS PERIOD ALONG
WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT INSTABILITY FOR CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...AND MORE THE WET THAN DRY VARIETY WITH EVEN A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL WY.   NW
FLOW AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EAST OF THE DIVIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S WITH SOME LOWER 90S IN THE BIG HORN
BASIN...WHILE TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE DIVIDE WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WHERE HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY FROM 75F TO 85F IN
THE WESTERN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH OUTFLOW WINDS OF
40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IN THE
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA INCLUDING KRKS AND KCPR. ISOLATED
STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN JOHNSON COUNTY UNTIL 03Z. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AROUND 01Z FRIDAY AND
THEN MOVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WYOMING BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z FRIDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED EAST ON FRIDAY BY A DRY...HOT...
WESTERLY FLOW WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF SWEETWATER COUNTY WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WYOMING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING PERIODS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THESE AREAS WHERE CRITICALLY DRY FUELS ALSO EXIST. ANOTHER
DAY OF HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WILL COMBINE WITH A
DRYING ATMOSPHERE AND VERY LOW RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPR SINGLE
DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDER TODAY...FURTHER  REINFORCING HEIGHTEN FIRE
DANGER....ESPECIALLY ACROSS FIRE WEATHER ZONES 279...280 AND 300.
MUCH OF THE EXTREME FIRE WEATHER BEHAVIOR CONDITIONS WILL WILL BE
TIED TO A STRONGLY INCREASED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL ALSO
COMBINE WITH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO GIVE WESTERLY WIND GUST
BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SOMEWHAT COOLER OVER THE WARNED AREAS. SATURDAY WILL COOL OFF
FURTHER BEHIND A DRY COOL FRONT...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN WARM AND
DRY. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS FRONT MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX JUST ENOUGH TO
KEEP WINDS FROM REACHING RED FLAG CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH FIRE DANGER
WILL STILL BE ENHANCED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ZONE 279.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT FRIDAY
WYZ279-280-283-285-287-300.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY WYZ276.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SKRBAC
SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN









000
FXUS65 KRIW 241716
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1116 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

WV IMAGERY SHOWING ROBUST UPR RIDGE...STILL SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO
UPR TROFS AND CENTERED OVER CO AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT
WITH THE DIRTY PORTION OF THE RIDGE CUTTING THROUGH WY AND UP INTO
ERN MT AND THE DAKOTAS. MOISTURE FROM THE NA MONSOON (LIKE FLOW) IS
NOW SET AND BEGINNING TO EVENTUALLY SPIN MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE S CNTRL CONUS...PERHAPS BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. IN
THE MEANTIME HOWEVER...DEEP DRY AIR WILL START TO FEED INTO THE FA
FROM THE SW CONUS TODAY AS THE AXIS PORTION OF THE RIDGE ROTATES EWD
AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES STRONGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL AND SW
ORIENTED.

UPR HIGH OVR SWRN CONUS STILL REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE MOST PART.
HOWEVER...THE N/S AMPLIFICATION OF THE HIGH OVR WY WILL START TO
FLATTEN TODAY AND BEGIN THE SLOW PROGRESSION TO ZONAL AND FINALLY NW
FLOW THRU THE WEEKEND. AS THE WRN COASTAL TROF PUSHES ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS BORDER REGION W/ CA...DECREASING HEIGHTS OVR WY ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES...STARTING TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPS COMING IN A FEW DEG
BELOW THOSE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE W AND NWRN CWA SEEING DROPS OF 5
TO 10 DEG. OTHERWISE...WEAK DISTURBANCES  EMBEDDED IN THE PERIPHERY
OF UPR HIGH THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO ROTATE CLOCKWISE ACROSS OR NEAR
THE FA...CONTINUING ISOLATED  CONVECTIVE CHANCES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH SMALL RAIN CORES...BUT  DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS
UP TO 55 MPH...OVR MAINLY THE SRN AND SWRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH A FEW OTHERS IN FREMONT AND JOHNSON COUNTIES. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THRU THE WRN TO NWRN FA LATER THIS MORNING
FROM OUT OF NRN UTAH...OFFERING MORE SMALL CHCS FOR PESKY EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION TO CONTINUE. THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER STRONGER
DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE NW CONUS LOW WILL COMBINE WITH SOME
MONSOONAL-ISH MOISTURE ACROSS S AND ERN WY...BRINGING YET ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...WITH THE USUAL LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WIND POSSIBLE FOR
ANOTHER DAY IN THIS AREA. A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE SFC LOW AND FRONT
SWINGING OUT OF MT AND STRENGTHENING OVR ERN WY WILL ALSO HELP FOCUS
CONVECTION OVR THE SAME REGION. HOWEVER...DRY AIR WILL BE WORKING
ITS WAY INTO THE FA THRU THE DAY FROM THE WEST...AND THIS WILL BE
THE LAST CHC FOR ANY PRECIP OR THUNDER THRU THE REST OF THIS FCST
PERIOD. FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER...WITH A DEEPER DRIER ATMOSPHERE AND
MORE STABLE TOO...WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION
EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY NEAR THE WY/CO BORDER. MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR
BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY IS THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER THAT WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN ZONES...WITH THE ADDITION OF THE
CODY FOOTHILLS. TODAY...HOT DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100
AGAIN WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPR SINGLE
DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS AND INCREASING SW WINDS (AS MENTIONED ABOVE)
ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE WHERE THE DRY FUEL STATUS IS NOW CRITICAL.
BOTH THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS ALONG WITH INCREASED UPR FLOW IN
RESPONSE TO THE PASSING OF THE UPR WAVE AND DEVELOPING LEE LOW WILL
INCREASE THE LOCAL P GRAD AND ALSO BRING STRONGER FLOW DOWN TO THE
SFC FROM ALOFT ADIABATICALLY...GIVING WINDY CONDITIONS OVR THE
CENTRAL...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FA. THE ADDITION OF A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WILL ALSO HELP TO EXACERBATE
THE SITUATION EVEN FURTHER TODAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT
FRIDAY EVEN WITH COOLER HIGH TEMPS AROUND...WITHOUT THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL HOWEVER. RED FLAG WARNING THEREFORE CONTINUES THROUGH FRI
EVENING FOR SRN CNTRL AND SERN FIRE ZONES...WITH THE ADDITION OF THE
CODY FOOTHILLS (STARTING TODAY AT NOON) AND ALSO RUN THRU FRI
EVENING.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...FLAT DRY ZONAL FLOW BEGINS THE TRANSITION TO DRY
NW FLOW. LEE SIDE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS...WITH ADDITIONAL COOLING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COOL
FRONT E OF THE DIVIDE...BUT SLIGHT WARMING W OF THE DIVIDE WHERE THE
FRONT WILL NOT BE A PRESENCE. THE SFC P GRAD SHOULD ALSO RELAX
SOMEWHAT OVR THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS AS THE LOW P SYSTEM MOVES
OFF...DECREASING W TO NW WINDS TO JUST BELOW WHAT WOULD BE NEEDED FOR
FURTHER RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...FIRE DANGER WILL
CERTAINLY BE ENHANCED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN FCST ZONES. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY WILL CARVE OUT A
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK...FORMING A
BLOCK OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH UPPER RIDGE CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE
DIVIDE AND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  THIS WILL PUT
WYOMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW FLOW ALOFT.  SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
THAT WAS SUPPRESSED BY ZONAL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY WITH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
THIS MOISTURE PLUME AND EMBEDDED SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ROUNDING
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND PUSHING E-SE ACROSS WYOMING ON MONDAY.
THIS "RING OF FIRE" PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK.  THE LAST WEEK OF JULY IS TYPICALLY WHEN WYOMING SEES
A BRIEF SURGE NWD OF THE SW MONSOON OR THE VERY HIGH 55+ DEWPOINTS
PUSHING UP FROM THE GREAT BASIN.  HOWEVER...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
THIS DEEPER LOW MOISTURE SUPPRESSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH.  HOWEVER...NW
FLOW WILL KEEP SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND AN
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE DIVIDE THROUGH THIS PERIOD ALONG
WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT INSTABILITY FOR CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...AND MORE THE WET THAN DRY VARIETY WITH EVEN A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL WY.   NW
FLOW AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EAST OF THE DIVIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S WITH SOME LOWER 90S IN THE BIG HORN
BASIN...WHILE TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE DIVIDE WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WHERE HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY FROM 75F TO 85F IN
THE WESTERN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH OUTFLOW WINDS OF
40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IN THE
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA INCLUDING KRKS AND KCPR. ISOLATED
STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN JOHNSON COUNTY UNTIL 03Z. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AROUND 01Z FRIDAY AND
THEN MOVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WYOMING BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z FRIDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED EAST ON FRIDAY BY A DRY...HOT...
WESTERLY FLOW WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF SWEETWATER COUNTY WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WYOMING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING PERIODS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THESE AREAS WHERE CRITICALLY DRY FUELS ALSO EXIST. ANOTHER
DAY OF HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WILL COMBINE WITH A
DRYING ATMOSPHERE AND VERY LOW RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPR SINGLE
DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDER TODAY...FURTHER  REINFORCING HEIGHTEN FIRE
DANGER....ESPECIALLY ACROSS FIRE WEATHER ZONES 279...280 AND 300.
MUCH OF THE EXTREME FIRE WEATHER BEHAVIOR CONDITIONS WILL WILL BE
TIED TO A STRONGLY INCREASED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL ALSO
COMBINE WITH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO GIVE WESTERLY WIND GUST
BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SOMEWHAT COOLER OVER THE WARNED AREAS. SATURDAY WILL COOL OFF
FURTHER BEHIND A DRY COOL FRONT...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN WARM AND
DRY. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS FRONT MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX JUST ENOUGH TO
KEEP WINDS FROM REACHING RED FLAG CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH FIRE DANGER
WILL STILL BE ENHANCED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ZONE 279.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT FRIDAY
WYZ279-280-283-285-287-300.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY WYZ276.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SKRBAC
SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN








000
FXUS65 KCYS 241714
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1114 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK FOR TODAY. TYPICAL MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE TO THE GRIDS BUT NO BIG UPDATES EXPECTED. MONSOON MOISTURE IS
MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA AT THIS TIME. STARTING TO SEE SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVE NORTHWARD OUT OF COLORADO AND INTO SOUTHWEST
CARBON COUNTY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY...BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTY
WINDS FROM A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN LARGE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A CONTINUOUS STREAM OF CLOUD COVER
EXTENDING FROM ARIZONA NORTHEASTWARD INTO WYOMING AND COLORADO.
THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHING
NORTHWARD AROUND THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH CURRENTLY OVER NEW
MEXICO AND SOUTHERN COLORADO. THIS CLOUD COVER MAY RESULT IN
LIMITING SURFACE BASED CONVECTION OVER THE AREA DUE TO LESS
SURFACE HEATING. IN ADDITION...SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED IN ADDITION TO LESS BL MIXING MAY INHIBIT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE VALUES BELOW 1000 J/KG AND LI/S ONLY BETWEEN
-1C TO -3C. WITH INTERVALS OF CLOUD COVER...THIS SUGGESTS
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH THE DAY.
MODELS DO SHOW A RATHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST DURING THE
DAY ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER WHICH MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE TSTORMS
TODAY AS DRIER AIR ATTEMPTS TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL WYOMING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO MID 90S ALONG AND WEST
OF I25...WITH HIGHS AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
AND THE ADJACENT PLAINS OF FAR EASTERN WYOMING.

FOR FRIDAY...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME TO
SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS WELL...WITH ANY SHOWERS AND TSTORMS MAINLY NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER AND ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR. DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
BEGIN TO MIX TOWARDS THE SURFACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FROM
DOUGLAS TO CHADRON NEBRASKA. KEPT POP BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT
FROM LARAMIE EASTWARD TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S NORTH OF THE
PLATTE RIVER VALLEY.

FOR SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS THE
LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGH
PLAINS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH WINDS SHIFTING INTO THE
EAST. MODELS INDICATE VERY STABLE AND DRY AIR PUSHING INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL GREATLY LIMIT TSTORM CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS OF
COLORADO OR THE HIGH PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT...QUIET OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE.

SUNDAY...WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. LIMITED LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE...THUS MOSTLY DRY.

MONDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASES SLIGHTLY...THUS WILL SEE
ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE AND
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR.

TUESDAY...MODELS PROG AND INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE...THUS WILL
SEE A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...MOST
NUMEROUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY...ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE SLIGHTLY...THUS LESS LATE DAY
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING PRODUCING LOCALIZED GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ALONG WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR VSBYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS ZONE
301...MAINLY THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CONVERSE COUNTY. THIS SHOULD
BE A RATHER MARGINAL EVENT DUE TO RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS AND
INTERVALS OF CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...MODELS
INDICATE A STRONG SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND
AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT AIDING THE IDEA OF
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TODAY. IN ADDITION...HOT TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH READINGS APPROACHING THE CENTURY
MARK. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
HUMIDITIES AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING.

HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL
TREND HIGHER BY SUNDAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...TJT






000
FXUS65 KCYS 241714
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1114 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK FOR TODAY. TYPICAL MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE TO THE GRIDS BUT NO BIG UPDATES EXPECTED. MONSOON MOISTURE IS
MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA AT THIS TIME. STARTING TO SEE SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVE NORTHWARD OUT OF COLORADO AND INTO SOUTHWEST
CARBON COUNTY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY...BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTY
WINDS FROM A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN LARGE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A CONTINUOUS STREAM OF CLOUD COVER
EXTENDING FROM ARIZONA NORTHEASTWARD INTO WYOMING AND COLORADO.
THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHING
NORTHWARD AROUND THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH CURRENTLY OVER NEW
MEXICO AND SOUTHERN COLORADO. THIS CLOUD COVER MAY RESULT IN
LIMITING SURFACE BASED CONVECTION OVER THE AREA DUE TO LESS
SURFACE HEATING. IN ADDITION...SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED IN ADDITION TO LESS BL MIXING MAY INHIBIT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE VALUES BELOW 1000 J/KG AND LI/S ONLY BETWEEN
-1C TO -3C. WITH INTERVALS OF CLOUD COVER...THIS SUGGESTS
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH THE DAY.
MODELS DO SHOW A RATHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST DURING THE
DAY ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER WHICH MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE TSTORMS
TODAY AS DRIER AIR ATTEMPTS TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL WYOMING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO MID 90S ALONG AND WEST
OF I25...WITH HIGHS AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
AND THE ADJACENT PLAINS OF FAR EASTERN WYOMING.

FOR FRIDAY...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME TO
SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS WELL...WITH ANY SHOWERS AND TSTORMS MAINLY NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER AND ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR. DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
BEGIN TO MIX TOWARDS THE SURFACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FROM
DOUGLAS TO CHADRON NEBRASKA. KEPT POP BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT
FROM LARAMIE EASTWARD TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S NORTH OF THE
PLATTE RIVER VALLEY.

FOR SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS THE
LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGH
PLAINS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH WINDS SHIFTING INTO THE
EAST. MODELS INDICATE VERY STABLE AND DRY AIR PUSHING INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL GREATLY LIMIT TSTORM CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS OF
COLORADO OR THE HIGH PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT...QUIET OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE.

SUNDAY...WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. LIMITED LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE...THUS MOSTLY DRY.

MONDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASES SLIGHTLY...THUS WILL SEE
ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE AND
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR.

TUESDAY...MODELS PROG AND INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE...THUS WILL
SEE A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...MOST
NUMEROUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY...ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE SLIGHTLY...THUS LESS LATE DAY
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING PRODUCING LOCALIZED GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ALONG WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR VSBYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS ZONE
301...MAINLY THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CONVERSE COUNTY. THIS SHOULD
BE A RATHER MARGINAL EVENT DUE TO RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS AND
INTERVALS OF CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...MODELS
INDICATE A STRONG SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND
AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT AIDING THE IDEA OF
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TODAY. IN ADDITION...HOT TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH READINGS APPROACHING THE CENTURY
MARK. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
HUMIDITIES AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING.

HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL
TREND HIGHER BY SUNDAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...TJT





000
FXUS65 KCYS 241620
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1020 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK FOR TODAY. TYPICAL MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE TO THE GRIDS BUT NO BIG UPDATES EXPECTED. MONSOON MOISTURE IS
MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA AT THIS TIME. STARTING TO SEE SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVE NORTHWARD OUT OF COLORADO AND INTO SOUTHWEST
CARBON COUNTY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY...BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTY
WINDS FROM A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN LARGE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A CONTINUOUS STREAM OF CLOUD COVER
EXTENDING FROM ARIZONA NORTHEASTWARD INTO WYOMING AND COLORADO.
THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHING
NORTHWARD AROUND THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH CURRENTLY OVER NEW
MEXICO AND SOUTHERN COLORADO. THIS CLOUD COVER MAY RESULT IN
LIMITING SURFACE BASED CONVECTION OVER THE AREA DUE TO LESS
SURFACE HEATING. IN ADDITION...SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED IN ADDITION TO LESS BL MIXING MAY INHIBIT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE VALUES BELOW 1000 J/KG AND LI/S ONLY BETWEEN
-1C TO -3C. WITH INTERVALS OF CLOUD COVER...THIS SUGGESTS
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH THE DAY.
MODELS DO SHOW A RATHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST DURING THE
DAY ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER WHICH MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE TSTORMS
TODAY AS DRIER AIR ATTEMPTS TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL WYOMING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO MID 90S ALONG AND WEST
OF I25...WITH HIGHS AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
AND THE ADJACENT PLAINS OF FAR EASTERN WYOMING.

FOR FRIDAY...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME TO
SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS WELL...WITH ANY SHOWERS AND TSTORMS MAINLY NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER AND ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR. DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
BEGIN TO MIX TOWARDS THE SURFACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FROM
DOUGLAS TO CHADRON NEBRASKA. KEPT POP BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT
FROM LARAMIE EASTWARD TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S NORTH OF THE
PLATTE RIVER VALLEY.

FOR SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS THE
LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGH
PLAINS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH WINDS SHIFTING INTO THE
EAST. MODELS INDICATE VERY STABLE AND DRY AIR PUSHING INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL GREATLY LIMIT TSTORM CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS OF
COLORADO OR THE HIGH PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT...QUIET OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE.

SUNDAY...WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. LIMITED LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE...THUS MOSTLY DRY.

MONDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASES SLIGHTLY...THUS WILL SEE
ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE AND
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR.

TUESDAY...MODELS PROG AND INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE...THUS WILL
SEE A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...MOST
NUMEROUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY...ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE SLIGHTLY...THUS LESS LATE DAY
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR PREVAILS. BETWEEN 18Z AND 02Z...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALIZED TURBULENCE AND GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS ALONG WITH LOCALIZED MVFR.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS ZONE
301...MAINLY THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CONVERSE COUNTY. THIS SHOULD
BE A RATHER MARGINAL EVENT DUE TO RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS AND
INTERVALS OF CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...MODELS
INDICATE A STRONG SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND
AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT AIDING THE IDEA OF
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TODAY. IN ADDITION...HOT TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH READINGS APPROACHING THE CENTURY
MARK. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
HUMIDITIES AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING.

HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL
TREND HIGHER BY SUNDAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...TJT







000
FXUS65 KCYS 241620
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1020 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK FOR TODAY. TYPICAL MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE TO THE GRIDS BUT NO BIG UPDATES EXPECTED. MONSOON MOISTURE IS
MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA AT THIS TIME. STARTING TO SEE SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVE NORTHWARD OUT OF COLORADO AND INTO SOUTHWEST
CARBON COUNTY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY...BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTY
WINDS FROM A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN LARGE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A CONTINUOUS STREAM OF CLOUD COVER
EXTENDING FROM ARIZONA NORTHEASTWARD INTO WYOMING AND COLORADO.
THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHING
NORTHWARD AROUND THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH CURRENTLY OVER NEW
MEXICO AND SOUTHERN COLORADO. THIS CLOUD COVER MAY RESULT IN
LIMITING SURFACE BASED CONVECTION OVER THE AREA DUE TO LESS
SURFACE HEATING. IN ADDITION...SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED IN ADDITION TO LESS BL MIXING MAY INHIBIT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE VALUES BELOW 1000 J/KG AND LI/S ONLY BETWEEN
-1C TO -3C. WITH INTERVALS OF CLOUD COVER...THIS SUGGESTS
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH THE DAY.
MODELS DO SHOW A RATHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST DURING THE
DAY ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER WHICH MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE TSTORMS
TODAY AS DRIER AIR ATTEMPTS TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL WYOMING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO MID 90S ALONG AND WEST
OF I25...WITH HIGHS AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
AND THE ADJACENT PLAINS OF FAR EASTERN WYOMING.

FOR FRIDAY...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME TO
SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS WELL...WITH ANY SHOWERS AND TSTORMS MAINLY NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER AND ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR. DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
BEGIN TO MIX TOWARDS THE SURFACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FROM
DOUGLAS TO CHADRON NEBRASKA. KEPT POP BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT
FROM LARAMIE EASTWARD TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S NORTH OF THE
PLATTE RIVER VALLEY.

FOR SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS THE
LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGH
PLAINS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH WINDS SHIFTING INTO THE
EAST. MODELS INDICATE VERY STABLE AND DRY AIR PUSHING INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL GREATLY LIMIT TSTORM CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS OF
COLORADO OR THE HIGH PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT...QUIET OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE.

SUNDAY...WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. LIMITED LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE...THUS MOSTLY DRY.

MONDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASES SLIGHTLY...THUS WILL SEE
ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE AND
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR.

TUESDAY...MODELS PROG AND INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE...THUS WILL
SEE A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...MOST
NUMEROUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY...ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE SLIGHTLY...THUS LESS LATE DAY
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR PREVAILS. BETWEEN 18Z AND 02Z...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALIZED TURBULENCE AND GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS ALONG WITH LOCALIZED MVFR.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS ZONE
301...MAINLY THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CONVERSE COUNTY. THIS SHOULD
BE A RATHER MARGINAL EVENT DUE TO RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS AND
INTERVALS OF CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...MODELS
INDICATE A STRONG SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND
AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT AIDING THE IDEA OF
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TODAY. IN ADDITION...HOT TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH READINGS APPROACHING THE CENTURY
MARK. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
HUMIDITIES AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING.

HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL
TREND HIGHER BY SUNDAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...TJT






000
FXUS63 KUNR 241129
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
529 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 258 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

SMALL SHORTWAVE TOPPING RIDGE AXIS IS TRIGGERING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHWESTERN SD THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS
THEY MOVE EAST. ON THE SURFACE...LEE TROF EXTENDS FROM EASTERN MT
INTO SOUTHEAST WY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS
MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...
INDICATED BY MERRIMAN PROFILER WITH 50 KT AT 850MB.

TODAY...RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
CROSSING FORECAST AREA ON SOUTHWEST FLOW. ALTHOUGH STRONGER
DYNAMICS WILL BE FARTHER NORTH INTO MT/ND/CANADA...OCCLUDED
FRONT TO SURFACE LOW AND DRYLINE TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE FROM
EASTERN WY ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWESTERN SD WHERE CAPE WILL BE
OVER 2000J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AND SOUTHWESTERN
SD WILL BE MORE ISOLATED...BUT COULD PRODUCE STRONG STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY
WARM OVER SOUTHWESTERN SD AS THERMAL RIDGE CROSSES WESTERN SD AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AND SKIES
CLEARING.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL FRIDAY BELOW THE DEEP UPPER LOW IN
SOUTHERN CANADA. A SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER SOUTHEASTERN WY WITH
RETURN FLOW FROM NE PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWESTERN SD AHEAD OF AN
INVERTED TROF NORTH OF THE LOW. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE TROF OVER SOUTHWESTERN SD AND BLACK HILLS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN SD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES COOLER...AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER ND-MN...WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS...SO WENT BELOW GUIDANCE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 258 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL BEGIN TO
ROTATE AROUND THE WESTERN RIDGE AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AGAIN
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOW CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 529 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND
MUCH OF WESTERN SD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15






000
FXUS63 KUNR 241129
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
529 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 258 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

SMALL SHORTWAVE TOPPING RIDGE AXIS IS TRIGGERING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHWESTERN SD THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS
THEY MOVE EAST. ON THE SURFACE...LEE TROF EXTENDS FROM EASTERN MT
INTO SOUTHEAST WY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS
MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...
INDICATED BY MERRIMAN PROFILER WITH 50 KT AT 850MB.

TODAY...RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
CROSSING FORECAST AREA ON SOUTHWEST FLOW. ALTHOUGH STRONGER
DYNAMICS WILL BE FARTHER NORTH INTO MT/ND/CANADA...OCCLUDED
FRONT TO SURFACE LOW AND DRYLINE TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE FROM
EASTERN WY ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWESTERN SD WHERE CAPE WILL BE
OVER 2000J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AND SOUTHWESTERN
SD WILL BE MORE ISOLATED...BUT COULD PRODUCE STRONG STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY
WARM OVER SOUTHWESTERN SD AS THERMAL RIDGE CROSSES WESTERN SD AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AND SKIES
CLEARING.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL FRIDAY BELOW THE DEEP UPPER LOW IN
SOUTHERN CANADA. A SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER SOUTHEASTERN WY WITH
RETURN FLOW FROM NE PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWESTERN SD AHEAD OF AN
INVERTED TROF NORTH OF THE LOW. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE TROF OVER SOUTHWESTERN SD AND BLACK HILLS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN SD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES COOLER...AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER ND-MN...WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS...SO WENT BELOW GUIDANCE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 258 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL BEGIN TO
ROTATE AROUND THE WESTERN RIDGE AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AGAIN
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOW CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 529 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND
MUCH OF WESTERN SD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15







000
FXUS65 KCYS 241125
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
525 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A CONTINUOUS STREAM OF CLOUD COVER
EXTENDING FROM ARIZONA NORTHEASTWARD INTO WYOMING AND COLORADO.
THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHING
NORTHWARD AROUND THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH CURRENTLY OVER NEW
MEXICO AND SOUTHERN COLORADO. THIS CLOUD COVER MAY RESULT IN
LIMITING SURFACE BASED CONVECTION OVER THE AREA DUE TO LESS
SURFACE HEATING. IN ADDITION...SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED IN ADDITION TO LESS BL MIXING MAY INHIBIT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE VALUES BELOW 1000 J/KG AND LI/S ONLY BETWEEN
-1C TO -3C. WITH INTERVALS OF CLOUD COVER...THIS SUGGESTS
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH THE DAY.
MODELS DO SHOW A RATHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST DURING THE
DAY ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER WHICH MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE TSTORMS
TODAY AS DRIER AIR ATTEMPTS TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL WYOMING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO MID 90S ALONG AND WEST
OF I25...WITH HIGHS AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
AND THE ADJACENT PLAINS OF FAR EASTERN WYOMING.

FOR FRIDAY...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME TO
SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS WELL...WITH ANY SHOWERS AND TSTORMS MAINLY NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER AND ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR. DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
BEGIN TO MIX TOWARDS THE SURFACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FROM
DOUGLAS TO CHADRON NEBRASKA. KEPT POP BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT
FROM LARAMIE EASTWARD TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S NORTH OF THE
PLATTE RIVER VALLEY.

FOR SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS THE
LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGH
PLAINS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH WINDS SHIFTING INTO THE
EAST. MODELS INDICATE VERY STABLE AND DRY AIR PUSHING INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL GREATLY LIMIT TSTORM CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS OF
COLORADO OR THE HIGH PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT...QUIET OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE.

SUNDAY...WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. LIMITED LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE...THUS MOSTLY DRY.

MONDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASES SLIGHTLY...THUS WILL SEE
ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE AND
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR.

TUESDAY...MODELS PROG AND INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE...THUS WILL
SEE A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...MOST
NUMEROUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY...ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE SLIGHTLY...THUS LESS LATE DAY
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR PREVAILS. BETWEEN 18Z AND 02Z...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALIZED TURBULENCE AND GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS ALONG WITH LOCALIZED MVFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS ZONE
301...MAINLY THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CONVERSE COUNTY. THIS SHOULD
BE A RATHER MARGINAL EVENT DUE TO RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS AND
INTERVALS OF CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...MODELS
INDICATE A STRONG SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND
AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT AIDING THE IDEA OF
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TODAY. IN ADDITION...HOT TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH READINGS APPROACHING THE CENTURY
MARK. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
HUMIDITIES AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING.

HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL
TREND HIGHER BY SUNDAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR WYZ301.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...TJT







000
FXUS65 KCYS 240954
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
354 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A CONTINUOUS STREAM OF CLOUD COVER
EXTENDING FROM ARIZONA NORTHEASTWARD INTO WYOMING AND COLORADO.
THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHING
NORTHWARD AROUND THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH CURRENTLY OVER NEW
MEXICO AND SOUTHERN COLORADO. THIS CLOUD COVER MAY RESULT IN
LIMITING SURFACE BASED CONVECTION OVER THE AREA DUE TO LESS
SURFACE HEATING. IN ADDITION...SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED IN ADDITION TO LESS BL MIXING MAY INHIBIT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE VALUES BELOW 1000 J/KG AND LI/S ONLY BETWEEN
-1C TO -3C. WITH INTERVALS OF CLOUD COVER...THIS SUGGESTS
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH THE DAY.
MODELS DO SHOW A RATHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST DURING THE
DAY ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER WHICH MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE TSTORMS
TODAY AS DRIER AIR ATTEMPTS TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL WYOMING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO MID 90S ALONG AND WEST
OF I25...WITH HIGHS AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
AND THE ADJACENT PLAINS OF FAR EASTERN WYOMING.

FOR FRIDAY...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME TO
SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS WELL...WITH ANY SHOWERS AND TSTORMS MAINLY NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER AND ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR. DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
BEGIN TO MIX TOWARDS THE SURFACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FROM
DOUGLAS TO CHADRON NEBRASKA. KEPT POP BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT
FROM LARAMIE EASTWARD TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S NORTH OF THE
PLATTE RIVER VALLEY.

FOR SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS THE
LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGH
PLAINS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH WINDS SHIFTING INTO THE
EAST. MODELS INDICATE VERY STABLE AND DRY AIR PUSHING INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL GREATLY LIMIT TSTORM CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS OF
COLORADO OR THE HIGH PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT...QUIET OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE.

SUNDAY...WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. LIMITED LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE...THUS MOSTLY DRY.

MONDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASES SLIGHTLY...THUS WILL SEE
ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE AND
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR.

TUESDAY...MODELS PROG AND INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE...THUS WILL
SEE A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...MOST
NUMEROUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY...ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE SLIGHTLY...THUS LESS LATE DAY
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT CDR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A LLJ WILL ALSO RESULT IN
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS AT CDR THROUGH AROUND 10Z.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE THURS MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS ZONE
301...MAINLY THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CONVERSE COUNTY. THIS SHOULD
BE A RATHER MARGINAL EVENT DUE TO RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS AND
INTERVALS OF CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...MODELS
INDICATE A STRONG SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND
AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT AIDING THE IDEA OF
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TODAY. IN ADDITION...HOT TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH READINGS APPROACHING THE CENTURY
MARK. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
HUMIDITIES AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING.

HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL
TREND HIGHER BY SUNDAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR WYZ301.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...TJT






000
FXUS65 KCYS 240954
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
354 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A CONTINUOUS STREAM OF CLOUD COVER
EXTENDING FROM ARIZONA NORTHEASTWARD INTO WYOMING AND COLORADO.
THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHING
NORTHWARD AROUND THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH CURRENTLY OVER NEW
MEXICO AND SOUTHERN COLORADO. THIS CLOUD COVER MAY RESULT IN
LIMITING SURFACE BASED CONVECTION OVER THE AREA DUE TO LESS
SURFACE HEATING. IN ADDITION...SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED IN ADDITION TO LESS BL MIXING MAY INHIBIT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE VALUES BELOW 1000 J/KG AND LI/S ONLY BETWEEN
-1C TO -3C. WITH INTERVALS OF CLOUD COVER...THIS SUGGESTS
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH THE DAY.
MODELS DO SHOW A RATHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST DURING THE
DAY ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER WHICH MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE TSTORMS
TODAY AS DRIER AIR ATTEMPTS TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL WYOMING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO MID 90S ALONG AND WEST
OF I25...WITH HIGHS AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
AND THE ADJACENT PLAINS OF FAR EASTERN WYOMING.

FOR FRIDAY...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME TO
SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS WELL...WITH ANY SHOWERS AND TSTORMS MAINLY NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER AND ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR. DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
BEGIN TO MIX TOWARDS THE SURFACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FROM
DOUGLAS TO CHADRON NEBRASKA. KEPT POP BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT
FROM LARAMIE EASTWARD TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S NORTH OF THE
PLATTE RIVER VALLEY.

FOR SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS THE
LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGH
PLAINS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH WINDS SHIFTING INTO THE
EAST. MODELS INDICATE VERY STABLE AND DRY AIR PUSHING INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL GREATLY LIMIT TSTORM CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS OF
COLORADO OR THE HIGH PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT...QUIET OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE.

SUNDAY...WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. LIMITED LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE...THUS MOSTLY DRY.

MONDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASES SLIGHTLY...THUS WILL SEE
ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE AND
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR.

TUESDAY...MODELS PROG AND INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE...THUS WILL
SEE A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...MOST
NUMEROUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY...ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE SLIGHTLY...THUS LESS LATE DAY
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT CDR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A LLJ WILL ALSO RESULT IN
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS AT CDR THROUGH AROUND 10Z.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE THURS MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS ZONE
301...MAINLY THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CONVERSE COUNTY. THIS SHOULD
BE A RATHER MARGINAL EVENT DUE TO RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS AND
INTERVALS OF CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...MODELS
INDICATE A STRONG SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND
AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT AIDING THE IDEA OF
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TODAY. IN ADDITION...HOT TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH READINGS APPROACHING THE CENTURY
MARK. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
HUMIDITIES AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING.

HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL
TREND HIGHER BY SUNDAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR WYZ301.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...TJT







000
FXUS63 KUNR 240951
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
351 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 258 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

SMALL SHORTWAVE TOPPING RIDGE AXIS IS TRIGGERING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHWESTERN SD THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS
THEY MOVE EAST. ON THE SURFACE...LEE TROF EXTENDS FROM EASTERN MT
INTO SOUTHEAST WY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS
MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...
INDICATED BY MERRIMAN PROFILER WITH 50 KT AT 850MB.

TODAY...RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
CROSSING FORECAST AREA ON SOUTHWEST FLOW. ALTHOUGH STRONGER
DYNAMICS WILL BE FARTHER NORTH INTO MT/ND/CANADA...OCCLUDED
FRONT TO SURFACE LOW AND DRYLINE TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE FROM
EASTERN WY ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWESTERN SD WHERE CAPE WILL BE
OVER 2000J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AND SOUTHWESTERN
SD WILL BE MORE ISOLATED...BUT COULD PRODUCE STRONG STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY
WARM OVER SOUTHWESTERN SD AS THERMAL RIDGE CROSSES WESTERN SD AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AND SKIES
CLEARING.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL FRIDAY BELOW THE DEEP UPPER LOW IN
SOUTHERN CANADA. A SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER SOUTHEASTERN WY WITH
RETURN FLOW FROM NE PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWESTERN SD AHEAD OF AN
INVERTED TROF NORTH OF THE LOW. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE TROF OVER SOUTHWESTERN SD AND BLACK HILLS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN SD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES COOLER...AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER ND-MN...WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS...SO WENT BELOW GUIDANCE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 258 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014


UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL BEGIN TO
ROTATE AROUND THE WESTERN RIDGE AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AGAIN
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOW CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 258 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND
MUCH OF WESTERN SD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15






000
FXUS63 KUNR 240951
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
351 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 258 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

SMALL SHORTWAVE TOPPING RIDGE AXIS IS TRIGGERING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHWESTERN SD THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS
THEY MOVE EAST. ON THE SURFACE...LEE TROF EXTENDS FROM EASTERN MT
INTO SOUTHEAST WY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS
MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...
INDICATED BY MERRIMAN PROFILER WITH 50 KT AT 850MB.

TODAY...RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
CROSSING FORECAST AREA ON SOUTHWEST FLOW. ALTHOUGH STRONGER
DYNAMICS WILL BE FARTHER NORTH INTO MT/ND/CANADA...OCCLUDED
FRONT TO SURFACE LOW AND DRYLINE TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE FROM
EASTERN WY ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWESTERN SD WHERE CAPE WILL BE
OVER 2000J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AND SOUTHWESTERN
SD WILL BE MORE ISOLATED...BUT COULD PRODUCE STRONG STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY
WARM OVER SOUTHWESTERN SD AS THERMAL RIDGE CROSSES WESTERN SD AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AND SKIES
CLEARING.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL FRIDAY BELOW THE DEEP UPPER LOW IN
SOUTHERN CANADA. A SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER SOUTHEASTERN WY WITH
RETURN FLOW FROM NE PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWESTERN SD AHEAD OF AN
INVERTED TROF NORTH OF THE LOW. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE TROF OVER SOUTHWESTERN SD AND BLACK HILLS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN SD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES COOLER...AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER ND-MN...WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS...SO WENT BELOW GUIDANCE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 258 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014


UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL BEGIN TO
ROTATE AROUND THE WESTERN RIDGE AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AGAIN
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOW CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 258 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND
MUCH OF WESTERN SD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15







000
FXUS65 KRIW 240936
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
336 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

WV IMAGERY SHOWING ROBUST UPR RIDGE...STILL SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO
UPR TROFS AND CENTERED OVER CO AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT
WITH THE DIRTY PORTION OF THE RIDGE CUTTING THROUGH WY AND UP INTO
ERN MT AND THE DAKOTAS. MOISTURE FROM THE NA MONSOON (LIKE FLOW) IS
NOW SET AND BEGINNING TO EVENTUALLY SPIN MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE S CNTRL CONUS...PERHAPS BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. IN
THE MEANTIME HOWEVER...DEEP DRY AIR WILL START TO FEED INTO THE FA
FROM THE SW CONUS TODAY AS THE AXIS PORTION OF THE RIDGE ROTATES EWD
AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES STRONGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL AND SW
ORIENTED.

UPR HIGH OVR SWRN CONUS STILL REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE MOST PART.
HOWEVER...THE N/S AMPLIFICATION OF THE HIGH OVR WY WILL START TO
FLATTEN TODAY AND BEGIN THE SLOW PROGRESSION TO ZONAL AND FINALLY NW
FLOW THRU THE WEEKEND. AS THE WRN COASTAL TROF PUSHES ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS BORDER REGION W/ CA...DECREASING HEIGHTS OVR WY ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES...STARTING TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPS COMING IN A FEW DEG
BELOW THOSE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE W AND NWRN CWA SEEING DROPS OF 5
TO 10 DEG. OTHERWISE...WEAK DISTURBANCES  EMBEDDED IN THE PERIPHERY
OF UPR HIGH THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO ROTATE CLOCKWISE ACROSS OR NEAR
THE FA...CONTINUING ISOLATED  CONVECTIVE CHANCES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH SMALL RAIN CORES...BUT DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS
UP TO 55 MPH...OVR MAINLY THE SRN AND SWRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH A FEW OTHERS IN FREMONT AND JOHNSON COUNTIES. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THRU THE WRN TO NWRN FA LATER THIS MORNING
FROM OUT OF NRN UTAH...OFFERING MORE SMALL CHCS FOR PESKY EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION TO CONTINUE. THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER STRONGER
DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE NW CONUS LOW WILL COMBINE WITH
SOME MONSOONAL-ISH MOISTURE ACROSS S AND ERN WY...BRINGING YET
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH THE USUAL LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WIND
POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER DAY IN THIS AREA. A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE SFC
LOW AND FRONT SWINGING OUT OF MT AND STRENGTHENING OVR ERN WY WILL
ALSO HELP FOCUS CONVECTION OVR THE SAME REGION. HOWEVER...DRY AIR
WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE FA THRU THE DAY FROM THE
WEST...AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST CHC FOR ANY PRECIP OR THUNDER
THRU THE REST OF THIS FCST PERIOD. FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER...WITH A
DEEPER DRIER ATMOSPHERE AND MORE STABLE TOO...WITH VIRTUALLY NO
CHANCE FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY NEAR THE WY/CO
BORDER. MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY IS THE
INCREASED FIRE DANGER THAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN
ZONES...WITH THE ADDITION OF THE CODY FOOTHILLS. TODAY...HOT
DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 AGAIN WILL COMBINE WITH LOW
RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPR SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS AND
INCREASING SW WINDS (AS MENTIONED ABOVE) ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE
WHERE THE DRY FUEL STATUS IS NOW CRITICAL. BOTH THE SURFACE
PRESSURE FIELDS ALONG WITH INCREASED UPR FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THE
PASSING OF THE UPR WAVE AND DEVELOPING LEE LOW WILL INCREASE THE
LOCAL P GRAD AND ALSO BRING STRONGER FLOW DOWN TO THE SFC FROM
ALOFT ADIABATICALLY...GIVING WINDY CONDITIONS OVR THE
CENTRAL...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FA. THE ADDITION OF A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WILL ALSO HELP TO EXACERBATE
THE SITUATION EVEN FURTHER TODAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE
PRESENT FRIDAY EVEN WITH COOLER HIGH TEMPS AROUND...WITHOUT THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL HOWEVER. RED FLAG WARNING THEREFORE CONTINUES
THROUGH FRI EVENING FOR SRN CNTRL AND SERN FIRE ZONES...WITH THE
ADDITION OF THE CODY FOOTHILLS (STARTING TODAY AT NOON) AND ALSO
RUN THRU FRI EVENING.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...FLAT DRY ZONAL FLOW BEGINS THE TRANSITION TO DRY
NW FLOW. LEE SIDE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS...WITH ADDITIONAL COOLING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COOL
FRONT E OF THE DIVIDE...BUT SLIGHT WARMING W OF THE DIVIDE WHERE THE
FRONT WILL NOT BE A PRESENCE. THE SFC P GRAD SHOULD ALSO RELAX
SOMEWHAT OVR THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS AS THE LOW P SYSTEM MOVES
OFF...DECREASING W TO NW WINDS TO JUST BELOW WHAT WOULD BE NEEDED FOR
FURTHER RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...FIRE DANGER WILL
CERTAINLY BE ENHANCED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN FCST ZONES. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY WILL CARVE OUT A
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK...FORMING A
BLOCK OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH UPPER RIDGE CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE
DIVIDE AND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  THIS WILL PUT
WYOMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW FLOW ALOFT.  SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
THAT WAS SUPPRESSED BY ZONAL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY WITH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
THIS MOISTURE PLUME AND EMBEDDED SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ROUNDING
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND PUSHING E-SE ACROSS WYOMING ON MONDAY.
THIS "RING OF FIRE" PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK.  THE LAST WEEK OF JULY IS TYPICALLY WHEN WYOMING SEES
A BRIEF SURGE NWD OF THE SW MONSOON OR THE VERY HIGH 55+ DEWPOINTS
PUSHING UP FROM THE GREAT BASIN.  HOWEVER...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
THIS DEEPER LOW MOISTURE SUPPRESSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH.  HOWEVER...NW
FLOW WILL KEEP SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND AN
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE DIVIDE THROUGH THIS PERIOD ALONG
WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT INSTABILITY FOR CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...AND MORE THE WET THAN DRY VARIETY WITH EVEN A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL WY.   NW
FLOW AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EAST OF THE DIVIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S WITH SOME LOWER 90S IN THE BIG HORN
BASIN...WHILE TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE DIVIDE WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WHERE HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY FROM 75F TO 85F IN
THE WESTERN VALLEYS.


&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. BREEZY TO WINDY AT
MOST TERMINAL SITES TODAY INTO EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST PORTION OF THE
REGION. THIS INCLUDES KRKS AND KCPR TERMINAL SITES. A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO NORTHERN WY AROUND 01Z FRIDAY AND MOVES SOUTH TO
CENTRAL WY BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WYOMING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING PERIODS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THESE AREAS WHERE CRITICALLY DRY FUELS ALSO EXIST. ANOTHER
DAY OF HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WILL COMBINE WITH A
DRYING ATMOSPHERE AND VERY LOW RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPR SINGLE
DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDER TODAY...FURTHER  REINFORCING HEIGHTEN FIRE
DANGER....ESPECIALLY ACROSS FIRE WEATHER ZONES 279...280 AND 300.
MUCH OF THE EXTREME FIRE WEATHER BEHAVIOR CONDITIONS WILL WILL BE
TIED TO A STRONGLY INCREASED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL ALSO
COMBINE WITH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO GIVE WESTERLY WIND GUST
BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SOMEWHAT COOLER OVER THE WARNED AREAS. SATURDAY WILL COOL OFF
FURTHER BEHIND A DRY COOL FRONT...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN WARM AND
DRY. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS FRONT MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX JUST ENOUGH TO
KEEP WINDS FROM REACHING RED FLAG CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH FIRE DANGER
WILL STILL BE ENHANCED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ZONE 279.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT FRIDAY
WYZ279-280-283-285-287-300.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY WYZ276.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN









000
FXUS65 KRIW 240936
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
336 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

WV IMAGERY SHOWING ROBUST UPR RIDGE...STILL SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO
UPR TROFS AND CENTERED OVER CO AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT
WITH THE DIRTY PORTION OF THE RIDGE CUTTING THROUGH WY AND UP INTO
ERN MT AND THE DAKOTAS. MOISTURE FROM THE NA MONSOON (LIKE FLOW) IS
NOW SET AND BEGINNING TO EVENTUALLY SPIN MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE S CNTRL CONUS...PERHAPS BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. IN
THE MEANTIME HOWEVER...DEEP DRY AIR WILL START TO FEED INTO THE FA
FROM THE SW CONUS TODAY AS THE AXIS PORTION OF THE RIDGE ROTATES EWD
AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES STRONGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL AND SW
ORIENTED.

UPR HIGH OVR SWRN CONUS STILL REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE MOST PART.
HOWEVER...THE N/S AMPLIFICATION OF THE HIGH OVR WY WILL START TO
FLATTEN TODAY AND BEGIN THE SLOW PROGRESSION TO ZONAL AND FINALLY NW
FLOW THRU THE WEEKEND. AS THE WRN COASTAL TROF PUSHES ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS BORDER REGION W/ CA...DECREASING HEIGHTS OVR WY ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES...STARTING TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPS COMING IN A FEW DEG
BELOW THOSE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE W AND NWRN CWA SEEING DROPS OF 5
TO 10 DEG. OTHERWISE...WEAK DISTURBANCES  EMBEDDED IN THE PERIPHERY
OF UPR HIGH THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO ROTATE CLOCKWISE ACROSS OR NEAR
THE FA...CONTINUING ISOLATED  CONVECTIVE CHANCES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH SMALL RAIN CORES...BUT DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS
UP TO 55 MPH...OVR MAINLY THE SRN AND SWRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH A FEW OTHERS IN FREMONT AND JOHNSON COUNTIES. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THRU THE WRN TO NWRN FA LATER THIS MORNING
FROM OUT OF NRN UTAH...OFFERING MORE SMALL CHCS FOR PESKY EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION TO CONTINUE. THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER STRONGER
DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE NW CONUS LOW WILL COMBINE WITH
SOME MONSOONAL-ISH MOISTURE ACROSS S AND ERN WY...BRINGING YET
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH THE USUAL LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WIND
POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER DAY IN THIS AREA. A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE SFC
LOW AND FRONT SWINGING OUT OF MT AND STRENGTHENING OVR ERN WY WILL
ALSO HELP FOCUS CONVECTION OVR THE SAME REGION. HOWEVER...DRY AIR
WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE FA THRU THE DAY FROM THE
WEST...AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST CHC FOR ANY PRECIP OR THUNDER
THRU THE REST OF THIS FCST PERIOD. FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER...WITH A
DEEPER DRIER ATMOSPHERE AND MORE STABLE TOO...WITH VIRTUALLY NO
CHANCE FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY NEAR THE WY/CO
BORDER. MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY IS THE
INCREASED FIRE DANGER THAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN
ZONES...WITH THE ADDITION OF THE CODY FOOTHILLS. TODAY...HOT
DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 AGAIN WILL COMBINE WITH LOW
RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPR SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS AND
INCREASING SW WINDS (AS MENTIONED ABOVE) ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE
WHERE THE DRY FUEL STATUS IS NOW CRITICAL. BOTH THE SURFACE
PRESSURE FIELDS ALONG WITH INCREASED UPR FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THE
PASSING OF THE UPR WAVE AND DEVELOPING LEE LOW WILL INCREASE THE
LOCAL P GRAD AND ALSO BRING STRONGER FLOW DOWN TO THE SFC FROM
ALOFT ADIABATICALLY...GIVING WINDY CONDITIONS OVR THE
CENTRAL...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FA. THE ADDITION OF A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WILL ALSO HELP TO EXACERBATE
THE SITUATION EVEN FURTHER TODAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE
PRESENT FRIDAY EVEN WITH COOLER HIGH TEMPS AROUND...WITHOUT THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL HOWEVER. RED FLAG WARNING THEREFORE CONTINUES
THROUGH FRI EVENING FOR SRN CNTRL AND SERN FIRE ZONES...WITH THE
ADDITION OF THE CODY FOOTHILLS (STARTING TODAY AT NOON) AND ALSO
RUN THRU FRI EVENING.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...FLAT DRY ZONAL FLOW BEGINS THE TRANSITION TO DRY
NW FLOW. LEE SIDE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS...WITH ADDITIONAL COOLING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COOL
FRONT E OF THE DIVIDE...BUT SLIGHT WARMING W OF THE DIVIDE WHERE THE
FRONT WILL NOT BE A PRESENCE. THE SFC P GRAD SHOULD ALSO RELAX
SOMEWHAT OVR THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS AS THE LOW P SYSTEM MOVES
OFF...DECREASING W TO NW WINDS TO JUST BELOW WHAT WOULD BE NEEDED FOR
FURTHER RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...FIRE DANGER WILL
CERTAINLY BE ENHANCED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN FCST ZONES. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY WILL CARVE OUT A
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK...FORMING A
BLOCK OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH UPPER RIDGE CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE
DIVIDE AND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  THIS WILL PUT
WYOMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW FLOW ALOFT.  SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
THAT WAS SUPPRESSED BY ZONAL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY WITH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
THIS MOISTURE PLUME AND EMBEDDED SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ROUNDING
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND PUSHING E-SE ACROSS WYOMING ON MONDAY.
THIS "RING OF FIRE" PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK.  THE LAST WEEK OF JULY IS TYPICALLY WHEN WYOMING SEES
A BRIEF SURGE NWD OF THE SW MONSOON OR THE VERY HIGH 55+ DEWPOINTS
PUSHING UP FROM THE GREAT BASIN.  HOWEVER...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
THIS DEEPER LOW MOISTURE SUPPRESSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH.  HOWEVER...NW
FLOW WILL KEEP SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND AN
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE DIVIDE THROUGH THIS PERIOD ALONG
WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT INSTABILITY FOR CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...AND MORE THE WET THAN DRY VARIETY WITH EVEN A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL WY.   NW
FLOW AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EAST OF THE DIVIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S WITH SOME LOWER 90S IN THE BIG HORN
BASIN...WHILE TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE DIVIDE WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WHERE HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY FROM 75F TO 85F IN
THE WESTERN VALLEYS.


&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. BREEZY TO WINDY AT
MOST TERMINAL SITES TODAY INTO EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST PORTION OF THE
REGION. THIS INCLUDES KRKS AND KCPR TERMINAL SITES. A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO NORTHERN WY AROUND 01Z FRIDAY AND MOVES SOUTH TO
CENTRAL WY BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WYOMING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING PERIODS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THESE AREAS WHERE CRITICALLY DRY FUELS ALSO EXIST. ANOTHER
DAY OF HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WILL COMBINE WITH A
DRYING ATMOSPHERE AND VERY LOW RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPR SINGLE
DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDER TODAY...FURTHER  REINFORCING HEIGHTEN FIRE
DANGER....ESPECIALLY ACROSS FIRE WEATHER ZONES 279...280 AND 300.
MUCH OF THE EXTREME FIRE WEATHER BEHAVIOR CONDITIONS WILL WILL BE
TIED TO A STRONGLY INCREASED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL ALSO
COMBINE WITH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO GIVE WESTERLY WIND GUST
BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SOMEWHAT COOLER OVER THE WARNED AREAS. SATURDAY WILL COOL OFF
FURTHER BEHIND A DRY COOL FRONT...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN WARM AND
DRY. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS FRONT MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX JUST ENOUGH TO
KEEP WINDS FROM REACHING RED FLAG CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH FIRE DANGER
WILL STILL BE ENHANCED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ZONE 279.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT FRIDAY
WYZ279-280-283-285-287-300.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY WYZ276.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN










000
FXUS65 KCYS 240447
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1047 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED. NOW THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THE
STORMS MAKE IT. LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING HAVE CUT MUCH OF THE
HEATING...AND A STORM COMPLEX EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SET DOWN A
STABLE LAYER OF AIR. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING 75 TO 100 J/KG OF
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN PLACE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...SO
SHOULD SEE STORM STRUGGLE TO MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AFTER THAT NOT CERTAIN STORMS WILL
MAKE IT INTO THE PLAINS BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE BASED CAPE 3500-4000 J/KG. SHOULD STORMS
ROOT INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE PLAINS...THEN THEY COULD
EASILY BECOME SEVERE. THE GREATEST THREAT IS INTO EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING WHERE THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ARE STRONGER.
WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

ALREADY GETTING CONCERNED TOMORROW FORECAST IS TOO AGGRESSIVE ON
TEMPERATURES. LOOKING AT THE LATEST MODEL DATA THERE MAY BE
EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND AS MONSOON MOISTURE
MOVES ACROSS THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MODELS ALSO SHOWING
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOO. SHOULD THAT OCCUR THEN TEMPERATURES
COULD EASILY BE 5 DEGREES COOLER ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
FOR THURSDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BRING IN A SHOT OF COOLER AIR
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS VARY GREATLY AS TO HOW COOL THE AIR WILL
BE. THE NAM IS VERY AGGRESSIVE AND WOULD GENERALLY HOLD
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE 80S FOR FRIDAY. THE GFS SHOWS LESS COOL
AIR AND A FAST REBOUND OF WARM AIR ALOFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
WOULD PUSH HIGHS MAINLY INTO THE 90S. EITHER WAY THE MAIN CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH DRY AIR
IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

ZONAL FLOW INITIALLY OVER THE CWA SATURDAY WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY NWLY SUNDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH RE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE
ROCKY MTN REGION...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SLIGHTLY RETROGRADING
WESTWARD DURING THE WEEK. THE NWLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A SFC HIGH
TO SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND MOVE LITTLE THROUGH
THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE CWA RESIDING ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THIS COOLER AIR MASS. THIS WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE
RECENT WARMTH WITH TEMPS BEING CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES
ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT
MONDAY THROUGH WEDS AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEAK IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THE FRONT SIDE OF
THE UPPER HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT CDR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A LLJ WILL ALSO RESULT IN
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS AT CDR THROUGH AROUND 10Z.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE THURS MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
MAY SPREAD INTO THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ZONE 301 IN EAST CENTRAL WYOMING FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS COULD INHIBIT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND REDUCE WIND SPEEDS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 9 AM MDT THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WYZ301.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...SML




000
FXUS65 KCYS 240012
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
612 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED. NOW THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THE
STORMS MAKE IT. LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING HAVE CUT MUCH OF THE
HEATING...AND A STORM COMPLEX EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SET DOWN A
STABLE LAYER OF AIR. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING 75 TO 100 J/KG OF
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN PLACE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...SO
SHOULD SEE STORM STRUGGLE TO MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AFTER THAT NOT CERTAIN STORMS WILL
MAKE IT INTO THE PLAINS BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE BASED CAPE 3500-4000 J/KG. SHOULD STORMS
ROOT INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE PLAINS...THEN THEY COULD
EASILY BECOME SEVERE. THE GREATEST THREAT IS INTO EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING WHERE THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ARE STRONGER.
WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

ALREADY GETTING CONCERNED TOMORROW FORECAST IS TOO AGGRESSIVE ON
TEMPERATURES. LOOKING AT THE LATEST MODEL DATA THERE MAY BE
EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND AS MONSOON MOISTURE
MOVES ACROSS THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MODELS ALSO SHOWING
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOO. SHOULD THAT OCCUR THEN TEMPERATURES
COULD EASILY BE 5 DEGREES COOLER ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
FOR THURSDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BRING IN A SHOT OF COOLER AIR
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS VARY GREATLY AS TO HOW COOL THE AIR WILL
BE. THE NAM IS VERY AGGRESSIVE AND WOULD GENERALLY HOLD
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE 80S FOR FRIDAY. THE GFS SHOWS LESS COOL
AIR AND A FAST REBOUND OF WARM AIR ALOFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
WOULD PUSH HIGHS MAINLY INTO THE 90S. EITHER WAY THE MAIN CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH DRY AIR
IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

ZONAL FLOW INITIALLY OVER THE CWA SATURDAY WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY NWLY SUNDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH RE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE
ROCKY MTN REGION...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SLIGHTLY RETROGRADING
WESTWARD DURING THE WEEK. THE NWLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A SFC HIGH
TO SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND MOVE LITTLE THROUGH
THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE CWA RESIDING ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THIS COOLER AIR MASS. THIS WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE
RECENT WARMTH WITH TEMPS BEING CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES
ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT
MONDAY THROUGH WEDS AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEAK IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THE FRONT SIDE OF
THE UPPER HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 611 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WY AND THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER 03Z. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 15-25 KTS THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN
DIMINISH BY 03Z AS WELL. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS MAY
CONTINUE IN CHADRON THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A DEVELOPING LLJ.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
MAY SPREAD INTO THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ZONE 301 IN EAST CENTRAL WYOMING FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS COULD INHIBIT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND REDUCE WIND SPEEDS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WYZ301.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...SML





000
FXUS65 KCYS 240012
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
612 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED. NOW THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THE
STORMS MAKE IT. LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING HAVE CUT MUCH OF THE
HEATING...AND A STORM COMPLEX EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SET DOWN A
STABLE LAYER OF AIR. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING 75 TO 100 J/KG OF
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN PLACE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...SO
SHOULD SEE STORM STRUGGLE TO MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AFTER THAT NOT CERTAIN STORMS WILL
MAKE IT INTO THE PLAINS BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE BASED CAPE 3500-4000 J/KG. SHOULD STORMS
ROOT INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE PLAINS...THEN THEY COULD
EASILY BECOME SEVERE. THE GREATEST THREAT IS INTO EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING WHERE THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ARE STRONGER.
WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

ALREADY GETTING CONCERNED TOMORROW FORECAST IS TOO AGGRESSIVE ON
TEMPERATURES. LOOKING AT THE LATEST MODEL DATA THERE MAY BE
EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND AS MONSOON MOISTURE
MOVES ACROSS THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MODELS ALSO SHOWING
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOO. SHOULD THAT OCCUR THEN TEMPERATURES
COULD EASILY BE 5 DEGREES COOLER ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
FOR THURSDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BRING IN A SHOT OF COOLER AIR
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS VARY GREATLY AS TO HOW COOL THE AIR WILL
BE. THE NAM IS VERY AGGRESSIVE AND WOULD GENERALLY HOLD
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE 80S FOR FRIDAY. THE GFS SHOWS LESS COOL
AIR AND A FAST REBOUND OF WARM AIR ALOFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
WOULD PUSH HIGHS MAINLY INTO THE 90S. EITHER WAY THE MAIN CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH DRY AIR
IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

ZONAL FLOW INITIALLY OVER THE CWA SATURDAY WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY NWLY SUNDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH RE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE
ROCKY MTN REGION...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SLIGHTLY RETROGRADING
WESTWARD DURING THE WEEK. THE NWLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A SFC HIGH
TO SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND MOVE LITTLE THROUGH
THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE CWA RESIDING ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THIS COOLER AIR MASS. THIS WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE
RECENT WARMTH WITH TEMPS BEING CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES
ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT
MONDAY THROUGH WEDS AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEAK IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THE FRONT SIDE OF
THE UPPER HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 611 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WY AND THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER 03Z. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 15-25 KTS THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN
DIMINISH BY 03Z AS WELL. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS MAY
CONTINUE IN CHADRON THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A DEVELOPING LLJ.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
MAY SPREAD INTO THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ZONE 301 IN EAST CENTRAL WYOMING FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS COULD INHIBIT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND REDUCE WIND SPEEDS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WYZ301.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...SML






000
FXUS63 KUNR 232315
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
515 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WRN TO CNTRL CONUS WITH THE MAIN AXIS FROM CO TO MT. AN UPPER LOW IS
SITTING JUST OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH SW FLOW OVER THE NW
CONUS...THEN TRANSITIONING TO NW FLOW OVER THE CWA. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
MONTANA WITH RETURN FLOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. TEMPS HAVE STRUGGLED
TO REACH FORECAST HIGHS WITH TEMPS SO FAR IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.

STRONG CAP IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WILL KEEP DIURNALLY
TRIGGERED CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING TODAY. THE CAP WAS EXPECTED TO
BE WEAKEST ACROSS NE WY WHERE TEMPS REACHING MID 90S WOULD BE ENOUGH
TO ERODE IT...BUT TEMPS HAVE BEEN SHORT OF THAT SO FAR. CONVECTION
HAS INITIATED OVER LARAMIE RANGE...AND THE LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS
THIS CONVECTION MOVING N/NE INTO NE WY AND SW SD THIS EVENING. HAVE
PUT IN ISOLATED POPS THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...AND POSSIBLE
OTHER CONVECTION THAT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. BUT OVERALL MOST AREAS
WILL STAY DRY TONIGHT. ANY STORMS THAT MAKE IT INTO THE AREA MAY BE
SEVERE...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT IS VERY LOW.

UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD THURSDAY...CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS.
UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITH THE SURFACE LOW PUSHING
ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 90S TO 100. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE SE...CROSSING THE CWA THU AFTN/NIGHT. A STRONG CAP
IN PLACE AGAIN WILL HELP KEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING...BUT COULD
SEE ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...PERHAPS
ELEVATED STORMS. CANT RULE OUT A COUPLE STORMS BECOMING SEVERE...BUT
OVERALL THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION BREAKS DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK
AS AN UPPER LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTH COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION...THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL REBUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...BRINGING PREDOMINANTLY
NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALONG WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES WILL BEGIN TO ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 512 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LCL
MVFR VSBY AND GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...7







000
FXUS63 KUNR 232315
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
515 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WRN TO CNTRL CONUS WITH THE MAIN AXIS FROM CO TO MT. AN UPPER LOW IS
SITTING JUST OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH SW FLOW OVER THE NW
CONUS...THEN TRANSITIONING TO NW FLOW OVER THE CWA. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
MONTANA WITH RETURN FLOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. TEMPS HAVE STRUGGLED
TO REACH FORECAST HIGHS WITH TEMPS SO FAR IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.

STRONG CAP IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WILL KEEP DIURNALLY
TRIGGERED CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING TODAY. THE CAP WAS EXPECTED TO
BE WEAKEST ACROSS NE WY WHERE TEMPS REACHING MID 90S WOULD BE ENOUGH
TO ERODE IT...BUT TEMPS HAVE BEEN SHORT OF THAT SO FAR. CONVECTION
HAS INITIATED OVER LARAMIE RANGE...AND THE LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS
THIS CONVECTION MOVING N/NE INTO NE WY AND SW SD THIS EVENING. HAVE
PUT IN ISOLATED POPS THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...AND POSSIBLE
OTHER CONVECTION THAT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. BUT OVERALL MOST AREAS
WILL STAY DRY TONIGHT. ANY STORMS THAT MAKE IT INTO THE AREA MAY BE
SEVERE...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT IS VERY LOW.

UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD THURSDAY...CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS.
UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITH THE SURFACE LOW PUSHING
ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 90S TO 100. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE SE...CROSSING THE CWA THU AFTN/NIGHT. A STRONG CAP
IN PLACE AGAIN WILL HELP KEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING...BUT COULD
SEE ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...PERHAPS
ELEVATED STORMS. CANT RULE OUT A COUPLE STORMS BECOMING SEVERE...BUT
OVERALL THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION BREAKS DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK
AS AN UPPER LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTH COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION...THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL REBUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...BRINGING PREDOMINANTLY
NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALONG WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES WILL BEGIN TO ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 512 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LCL
MVFR VSBY AND GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...7







000
FXUS63 KUNR 232315
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
515 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WRN TO CNTRL CONUS WITH THE MAIN AXIS FROM CO TO MT. AN UPPER LOW IS
SITTING JUST OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH SW FLOW OVER THE NW
CONUS...THEN TRANSITIONING TO NW FLOW OVER THE CWA. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
MONTANA WITH RETURN FLOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. TEMPS HAVE STRUGGLED
TO REACH FORECAST HIGHS WITH TEMPS SO FAR IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.

STRONG CAP IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WILL KEEP DIURNALLY
TRIGGERED CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING TODAY. THE CAP WAS EXPECTED TO
BE WEAKEST ACROSS NE WY WHERE TEMPS REACHING MID 90S WOULD BE ENOUGH
TO ERODE IT...BUT TEMPS HAVE BEEN SHORT OF THAT SO FAR. CONVECTION
HAS INITIATED OVER LARAMIE RANGE...AND THE LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS
THIS CONVECTION MOVING N/NE INTO NE WY AND SW SD THIS EVENING. HAVE
PUT IN ISOLATED POPS THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...AND POSSIBLE
OTHER CONVECTION THAT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. BUT OVERALL MOST AREAS
WILL STAY DRY TONIGHT. ANY STORMS THAT MAKE IT INTO THE AREA MAY BE
SEVERE...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT IS VERY LOW.

UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD THURSDAY...CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS.
UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITH THE SURFACE LOW PUSHING
ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 90S TO 100. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE SE...CROSSING THE CWA THU AFTN/NIGHT. A STRONG CAP
IN PLACE AGAIN WILL HELP KEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING...BUT COULD
SEE ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...PERHAPS
ELEVATED STORMS. CANT RULE OUT A COUPLE STORMS BECOMING SEVERE...BUT
OVERALL THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION BREAKS DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK
AS AN UPPER LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTH COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION...THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL REBUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...BRINGING PREDOMINANTLY
NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALONG WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES WILL BEGIN TO ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 512 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LCL
MVFR VSBY AND GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...7







000
FXUS63 KUNR 232315
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
515 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WRN TO CNTRL CONUS WITH THE MAIN AXIS FROM CO TO MT. AN UPPER LOW IS
SITTING JUST OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH SW FLOW OVER THE NW
CONUS...THEN TRANSITIONING TO NW FLOW OVER THE CWA. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
MONTANA WITH RETURN FLOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. TEMPS HAVE STRUGGLED
TO REACH FORECAST HIGHS WITH TEMPS SO FAR IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.

STRONG CAP IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WILL KEEP DIURNALLY
TRIGGERED CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING TODAY. THE CAP WAS EXPECTED TO
BE WEAKEST ACROSS NE WY WHERE TEMPS REACHING MID 90S WOULD BE ENOUGH
TO ERODE IT...BUT TEMPS HAVE BEEN SHORT OF THAT SO FAR. CONVECTION
HAS INITIATED OVER LARAMIE RANGE...AND THE LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS
THIS CONVECTION MOVING N/NE INTO NE WY AND SW SD THIS EVENING. HAVE
PUT IN ISOLATED POPS THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...AND POSSIBLE
OTHER CONVECTION THAT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. BUT OVERALL MOST AREAS
WILL STAY DRY TONIGHT. ANY STORMS THAT MAKE IT INTO THE AREA MAY BE
SEVERE...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT IS VERY LOW.

UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD THURSDAY...CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS.
UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITH THE SURFACE LOW PUSHING
ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 90S TO 100. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE SE...CROSSING THE CWA THU AFTN/NIGHT. A STRONG CAP
IN PLACE AGAIN WILL HELP KEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING...BUT COULD
SEE ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...PERHAPS
ELEVATED STORMS. CANT RULE OUT A COUPLE STORMS BECOMING SEVERE...BUT
OVERALL THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION BREAKS DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK
AS AN UPPER LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTH COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION...THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL REBUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...BRINGING PREDOMINANTLY
NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALONG WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES WILL BEGIN TO ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 512 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LCL
MVFR VSBY AND GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...7







000
FXUS65 KCYS 232152
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
352 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED. NOW THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THE
STORMS MAKE IT. LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING HAVE CUT MUCH OF THE
HEATING...AND A STORM COMPLEX EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SET DOWN A
STABLE LAYER OF AIR. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING 75 TO 100 J/KG OF
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN PLACE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...SO
SHOULD SEE STORM STRUGGLE TO MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AFTER THAT NOT CERTAIN STORMS WILL
MAKE IT INTO THE PLAINS BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE BASED CAPE 3500-4000 J/KG. SHOULD STORMS
ROOT INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE PLAINS...THEN THEY COULD
EASILY BECOME SEVERE. THE GREATEST THREAT IS INTO EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING WHERE THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ARE STRONGER.
WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

ALREADY GETTING CONCERNED TOMORROW FORECAST IS TOO AGGRESSIVE ON
TEMPERATURES. LOOKING AT THE LATEST MODEL DATA THERE MAY BE
EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND AS MONSOON MOISTURE
MOVES ACROSS THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MODELS ALSO SHOWING
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOO. SHOULD THAT OCCUR THEN TEMPERATURES
COULD EASILY BE 5 DEGREES COOLER ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
FOR THURSDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BRING IN A SHOT OF COOLER AIR
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS VARY GREATLY AS TO HOW COOL THE AIR WILL
BE. THE NAM IS VERY AGGRESSIVE AND WOULD GENERALLY HOLD
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE 80S FOR FRIDAY. THE GFS SHOWS LESS COOL
AIR AND A FAST REBOUND OF WARM AIR ALOFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
WOULD PUSH HIGHS MAINLY INTO THE 90S. EITHER WAY THE MAIN CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH DRY AIR
IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

ZONAL FLOW INITIALLY OVER THE CWA SATURDAY WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY NWLY SUNDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH RE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE
ROCKY MTN REGION...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SLIGHTLY RETROGRADING
WESTWARD DURING THE WEEK. THE NWLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A SFC HIGH
TO SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND MOVE LITTLE THROUGH
THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE CWA RESIDING ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THIS COOLER AIR MASS. THIS WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE
RECENT WARMTH WITH TEMPS BEING CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES
ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT
MONDAY THROUGH WEDS AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEAK IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THE FRONT SIDE OF
THE UPPER HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)

VFR EXPECTED OVERALL FOR ALL AERODROMES THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTRMS OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
ASSOCIATED MVFR VSBYS BUT LOOKING TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN
INDIVIDUAL TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
MAY SPREAD INTO THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ZONE 301 IN EAST CENTRAL WYOMING FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS COULD INHIBIT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND REDUCE WIND SPEEDS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WYZ301.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...SML







000
FXUS65 KCYS 232152
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
352 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED. NOW THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THE
STORMS MAKE IT. LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING HAVE CUT MUCH OF THE
HEATING...AND A STORM COMPLEX EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SET DOWN A
STABLE LAYER OF AIR. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING 75 TO 100 J/KG OF
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN PLACE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...SO
SHOULD SEE STORM STRUGGLE TO MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AFTER THAT NOT CERTAIN STORMS WILL
MAKE IT INTO THE PLAINS BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE BASED CAPE 3500-4000 J/KG. SHOULD STORMS
ROOT INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE PLAINS...THEN THEY COULD
EASILY BECOME SEVERE. THE GREATEST THREAT IS INTO EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING WHERE THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ARE STRONGER.
WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

ALREADY GETTING CONCERNED TOMORROW FORECAST IS TOO AGGRESSIVE ON
TEMPERATURES. LOOKING AT THE LATEST MODEL DATA THERE MAY BE
EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND AS MONSOON MOISTURE
MOVES ACROSS THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MODELS ALSO SHOWING
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOO. SHOULD THAT OCCUR THEN TEMPERATURES
COULD EASILY BE 5 DEGREES COOLER ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
FOR THURSDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BRING IN A SHOT OF COOLER AIR
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS VARY GREATLY AS TO HOW COOL THE AIR WILL
BE. THE NAM IS VERY AGGRESSIVE AND WOULD GENERALLY HOLD
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE 80S FOR FRIDAY. THE GFS SHOWS LESS COOL
AIR AND A FAST REBOUND OF WARM AIR ALOFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
WOULD PUSH HIGHS MAINLY INTO THE 90S. EITHER WAY THE MAIN CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH DRY AIR
IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

ZONAL FLOW INITIALLY OVER THE CWA SATURDAY WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY NWLY SUNDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH RE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE
ROCKY MTN REGION...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SLIGHTLY RETROGRADING
WESTWARD DURING THE WEEK. THE NWLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A SFC HIGH
TO SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND MOVE LITTLE THROUGH
THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE CWA RESIDING ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THIS COOLER AIR MASS. THIS WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE
RECENT WARMTH WITH TEMPS BEING CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES
ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT
MONDAY THROUGH WEDS AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEAK IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THE FRONT SIDE OF
THE UPPER HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)

VFR EXPECTED OVERALL FOR ALL AERODROMES THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTRMS OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
ASSOCIATED MVFR VSBYS BUT LOOKING TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN
INDIVIDUAL TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
MAY SPREAD INTO THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ZONE 301 IN EAST CENTRAL WYOMING FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS COULD INHIBIT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND REDUCE WIND SPEEDS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WYZ301.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...SML







000
FXUS65 KCYS 232152
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
352 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED. NOW THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THE
STORMS MAKE IT. LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING HAVE CUT MUCH OF THE
HEATING...AND A STORM COMPLEX EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SET DOWN A
STABLE LAYER OF AIR. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING 75 TO 100 J/KG OF
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN PLACE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...SO
SHOULD SEE STORM STRUGGLE TO MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AFTER THAT NOT CERTAIN STORMS WILL
MAKE IT INTO THE PLAINS BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE BASED CAPE 3500-4000 J/KG. SHOULD STORMS
ROOT INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE PLAINS...THEN THEY COULD
EASILY BECOME SEVERE. THE GREATEST THREAT IS INTO EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING WHERE THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ARE STRONGER.
WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

ALREADY GETTING CONCERNED TOMORROW FORECAST IS TOO AGGRESSIVE ON
TEMPERATURES. LOOKING AT THE LATEST MODEL DATA THERE MAY BE
EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND AS MONSOON MOISTURE
MOVES ACROSS THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MODELS ALSO SHOWING
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOO. SHOULD THAT OCCUR THEN TEMPERATURES
COULD EASILY BE 5 DEGREES COOLER ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
FOR THURSDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BRING IN A SHOT OF COOLER AIR
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS VARY GREATLY AS TO HOW COOL THE AIR WILL
BE. THE NAM IS VERY AGGRESSIVE AND WOULD GENERALLY HOLD
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE 80S FOR FRIDAY. THE GFS SHOWS LESS COOL
AIR AND A FAST REBOUND OF WARM AIR ALOFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
WOULD PUSH HIGHS MAINLY INTO THE 90S. EITHER WAY THE MAIN CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH DRY AIR
IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

ZONAL FLOW INITIALLY OVER THE CWA SATURDAY WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY NWLY SUNDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH RE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE
ROCKY MTN REGION...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SLIGHTLY RETROGRADING
WESTWARD DURING THE WEEK. THE NWLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A SFC HIGH
TO SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND MOVE LITTLE THROUGH
THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE CWA RESIDING ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THIS COOLER AIR MASS. THIS WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE
RECENT WARMTH WITH TEMPS BEING CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES
ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT
MONDAY THROUGH WEDS AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEAK IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THE FRONT SIDE OF
THE UPPER HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)

VFR EXPECTED OVERALL FOR ALL AERODROMES THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTRMS OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
ASSOCIATED MVFR VSBYS BUT LOOKING TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN
INDIVIDUAL TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
MAY SPREAD INTO THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ZONE 301 IN EAST CENTRAL WYOMING FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS COULD INHIBIT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND REDUCE WIND SPEEDS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WYZ301.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...SML







000
FXUS65 KCYS 232152
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
352 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED. NOW THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THE
STORMS MAKE IT. LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING HAVE CUT MUCH OF THE
HEATING...AND A STORM COMPLEX EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SET DOWN A
STABLE LAYER OF AIR. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING 75 TO 100 J/KG OF
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN PLACE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...SO
SHOULD SEE STORM STRUGGLE TO MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AFTER THAT NOT CERTAIN STORMS WILL
MAKE IT INTO THE PLAINS BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE BASED CAPE 3500-4000 J/KG. SHOULD STORMS
ROOT INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE PLAINS...THEN THEY COULD
EASILY BECOME SEVERE. THE GREATEST THREAT IS INTO EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING WHERE THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ARE STRONGER.
WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

ALREADY GETTING CONCERNED TOMORROW FORECAST IS TOO AGGRESSIVE ON
TEMPERATURES. LOOKING AT THE LATEST MODEL DATA THERE MAY BE
EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND AS MONSOON MOISTURE
MOVES ACROSS THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MODELS ALSO SHOWING
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOO. SHOULD THAT OCCUR THEN TEMPERATURES
COULD EASILY BE 5 DEGREES COOLER ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
FOR THURSDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BRING IN A SHOT OF COOLER AIR
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS VARY GREATLY AS TO HOW COOL THE AIR WILL
BE. THE NAM IS VERY AGGRESSIVE AND WOULD GENERALLY HOLD
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE 80S FOR FRIDAY. THE GFS SHOWS LESS COOL
AIR AND A FAST REBOUND OF WARM AIR ALOFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
WOULD PUSH HIGHS MAINLY INTO THE 90S. EITHER WAY THE MAIN CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH DRY AIR
IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

ZONAL FLOW INITIALLY OVER THE CWA SATURDAY WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY NWLY SUNDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH RE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE
ROCKY MTN REGION...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SLIGHTLY RETROGRADING
WESTWARD DURING THE WEEK. THE NWLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A SFC HIGH
TO SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND MOVE LITTLE THROUGH
THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE CWA RESIDING ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THIS COOLER AIR MASS. THIS WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE
RECENT WARMTH WITH TEMPS BEING CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES
ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT
MONDAY THROUGH WEDS AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEAK IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THE FRONT SIDE OF
THE UPPER HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)

VFR EXPECTED OVERALL FOR ALL AERODROMES THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTRMS OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
ASSOCIATED MVFR VSBYS BUT LOOKING TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN
INDIVIDUAL TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
MAY SPREAD INTO THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ZONE 301 IN EAST CENTRAL WYOMING FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS COULD INHIBIT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND REDUCE WIND SPEEDS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WYZ301.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...SML







000
FXUS63 KUNR 232042
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
242 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WRN TO CNTRL CONUS WITH THE MAIN AXIS FROM CO TO MT. AN UPPER LOW IS
SITTING JUST OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH SW FLOW OVER THE NW
CONUS...THEN TRANSITIONING TO NW FLOW OVER THE CWA. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
MONTANA WITH RETURN FLOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. TEMPS HAVE STRUGGLED
TO REACH FORECAST HIGHS WITH TEMPS SO FAR IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.

STRONG CAP IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WILL KEEP DIURNALLY
TRIGGERED CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING TODAY. THE CAP WAS EXPECTED TO
BE WEAKEST ACROSS NE WY WHERE TEMPS REACHING MID 90S WOULD BE ENOUGH
TO ERODE IT...BUT TEMPS HAVE BEEN SHORT OF THAT SO FAR. CONVECTION
HAS INITIATED OVER LARAMIE RANGE...AND THE LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS
THIS CONVECTION MOVING N/NE INTO NE WY AND SW SD THIS EVENING. HAVE
PUT IN ISOLATED POPS THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...AND POSSIBLE
OTHER CONVECTION THAT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. BUT OVERALL MOST AREAS
WILL STAY DRY TONIGHT. ANY STORMS THAT MAKE IT INTO THE AREA MAY BE
SEVERE...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT IS VERY LOW.

UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD THURSDAY...CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS.
UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITH THE SURFACE LOW PUSHING
ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 90S TO 100. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE SE...CROSSING THE CWA THU AFTN/NIGHT. A STRONG CAP
IN PLACE AGAIN WILL HELP KEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING...BUT COULD
SEE ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...PERHAPS
ELEVATED STORMS. CANT RULE OUT A COUPLE STORMS BECOMING SEVERE...BUT
OVERALL THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION BREAKS DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK
AS AN UPPER LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTH COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION...THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL REBUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...BRINGING PREDOMINANTLY
NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALONG WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES WILL BEGIN TO ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TODAY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
AND TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND MUCH OF WESTERN SD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26







000
FXUS63 KUNR 232042
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
242 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WRN TO CNTRL CONUS WITH THE MAIN AXIS FROM CO TO MT. AN UPPER LOW IS
SITTING JUST OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH SW FLOW OVER THE NW
CONUS...THEN TRANSITIONING TO NW FLOW OVER THE CWA. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
MONTANA WITH RETURN FLOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. TEMPS HAVE STRUGGLED
TO REACH FORECAST HIGHS WITH TEMPS SO FAR IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.

STRONG CAP IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WILL KEEP DIURNALLY
TRIGGERED CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING TODAY. THE CAP WAS EXPECTED TO
BE WEAKEST ACROSS NE WY WHERE TEMPS REACHING MID 90S WOULD BE ENOUGH
TO ERODE IT...BUT TEMPS HAVE BEEN SHORT OF THAT SO FAR. CONVECTION
HAS INITIATED OVER LARAMIE RANGE...AND THE LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS
THIS CONVECTION MOVING N/NE INTO NE WY AND SW SD THIS EVENING. HAVE
PUT IN ISOLATED POPS THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...AND POSSIBLE
OTHER CONVECTION THAT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. BUT OVERALL MOST AREAS
WILL STAY DRY TONIGHT. ANY STORMS THAT MAKE IT INTO THE AREA MAY BE
SEVERE...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT IS VERY LOW.

UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD THURSDAY...CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS.
UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITH THE SURFACE LOW PUSHING
ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 90S TO 100. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE SE...CROSSING THE CWA THU AFTN/NIGHT. A STRONG CAP
IN PLACE AGAIN WILL HELP KEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING...BUT COULD
SEE ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...PERHAPS
ELEVATED STORMS. CANT RULE OUT A COUPLE STORMS BECOMING SEVERE...BUT
OVERALL THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION BREAKS DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK
AS AN UPPER LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTH COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION...THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL REBUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...BRINGING PREDOMINANTLY
NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALONG WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES WILL BEGIN TO ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TODAY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
AND TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND MUCH OF WESTERN SD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26






000
FXUS65 KRIW 232011
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
211 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

MCS TO OUR EAST LAST NIGHT PUSHED A STRONG...MOIST BOUNDARY WESTWARD
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS RESULTING IN MUCH HIGHER MORNING DEW
POINTS THAN EXPECTED. THE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60 IN JOHNSON AND ERN NATRONA AND LOWER TO MID 50S ALL THE WAY WWD
INTO THE WIND RIVER BASIN. MUCH DRIER SW FLOW IS FINALLY MIXING THE
AREA OUT WITH JOHNSON THE LAST TO GO. CAP IS STRONG SO POTENTIAL LOW
FOR STORMS BUT IF ONE DOES POP IT COULD BE QUITE STRONG BEFORE
MOVING EAST OUR OUR AREA. SWRN MOISTURE PLUME CAME IN QUICKLY AND A
LITTLE FURTHER NWWD THAN THE MODELS INDICATED SO EXPANDED ISOLD DRY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WORDING INTO THE SW AND PARTS OF CENTRAL WYOMING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MAIN THREAT WILL BE THE STRONG OUT FLOW
WINDS AND LIGHTNING WITH A FEW CELLS. VERY DRY AIR IN THE SW WITH
RKS DROPPING TO 11 PERCENT BY 11 AM AND 8 PERCENT AT SNOW SPRINGS
CREEK. ANOTHER SURGE OF MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT SO ADDED IN IDEA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/SLGHT CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SERN ZONES DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS. WEAK RIPPLE IN THE SW FLOW AND JET STREAK MAY ALSO FIRE A FEW
LATE NIGHT STORMS IN THE NWRN MTNS. MORE HIGH BASED STORMS ON
THURSDAY ACROSS THE SERN ZONES AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE FRONT IN
JOHNSON COUNTY. ONE CAVEAT TO THE SERN SWEETWATER COUNTY IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGHER PW AIR TO CLIP THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON
AS SURGE OF HIGHER THETA AIR CURRENTLY OVER ERN AND CENTRAL AZ
SURGES NWD OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS WITH PW`S OVER AN INCH FORECAST
BY THE GFS TO CLIP SERN SWEETWATER COUNTY. THE NAM IS JUST SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH DUE TO ITS MORE WLY WIND FLOW IN OUR AREA. THE UPPER
JUST MAY ALSO PROVIDE A LITTLE SUPPORT TOO DOWN THERE.
OTHERWISE...CONTINUED HOT AND WINDY. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY TODAY
BUT STRONGER ON THURSDAY WITH LOW TO THE NORTH AND FRONT PUSHING IN.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A RELATIVELY QUIET FORECAST PERIOD AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE WEATHER. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CREATE A PERIOD OF ZONAL FLOW BEGINNING
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS MAY RESULT
IN CONTINUED PERIODS OF GUSTY WIND ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THIS COMBINATION AND THE
PRESENCE OF CRITICALLY DRY FUELS WILL PERMIT THE CONTINUATION OF THE
RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO REBUILD OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS IN RESPONSE TO
THE WEAK WAVE. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
BROUGHT OVER WESTERN WYOMING TO INTRODUCE ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER...AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FURTHER
EAST. THESE SHOWERS AND ADDED MOISTURE WILL CAUSE FLUCTUATIONS IN
TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH OUTFLOW WINDS OF
40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE AREA INCLUDING KRKS...KBPI...
KPNA...KLND...KRIW...KCPR AND KWRL. THEY WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN
FURTHER NORTH BUT THE OUTFLOW WINDS CAN IMPACT THE TERMINALS EVEN
THOUGH THE SHOWER OR STORM IS MANY MILE AWAY. A FEW WEAK SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS WITH ISOLATED GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST INCLUDING KRKS AND KCPR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WYOMING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE CODY FOOTHILLS FROM NOON ON THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
AREAS WITH CRITICALLY DRY FUELS AS HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE
90S COMBINE WITH LOW RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPR SINGLE DIGITS
TO THE MID TEENS AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS.
ADDITIONALLY...THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDER TODAY ALSO
REINFORCES THIS DECISION. THURSDAY WILL PERHAPS SEE THE MOST
EXTREME BEHAVIOR AS A STRONGLY INCREASED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
COMBINES WITH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO GIVE WESTERLY WINDS
THAT WILL GUST BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER. HAVE ALSO ADDED A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR ZONE 276 (CODY FOOTHILLS) THAT WILL START THURSDAY AT
NOON AND ALSO RUN THRU FRIDAY EVENING FOR SIMILAR REASONING.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT FRIDAY
WYZ279-280-283-285-287-300.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING WYZ276.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKRBAC
LONG TERM...BRANHAM
AVIATION...SKRBAC
FIRE WEATHER...SKRBAC





000
FXUS65 KRIW 232011
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
211 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

MCS TO OUR EAST LAST NIGHT PUSHED A STRONG...MOIST BOUNDARY WESTWARD
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS RESULTING IN MUCH HIGHER MORNING DEW
POINTS THAN EXPECTED. THE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60 IN JOHNSON AND ERN NATRONA AND LOWER TO MID 50S ALL THE WAY WWD
INTO THE WIND RIVER BASIN. MUCH DRIER SW FLOW IS FINALLY MIXING THE
AREA OUT WITH JOHNSON THE LAST TO GO. CAP IS STRONG SO POTENTIAL LOW
FOR STORMS BUT IF ONE DOES POP IT COULD BE QUITE STRONG BEFORE
MOVING EAST OUR OUR AREA. SWRN MOISTURE PLUME CAME IN QUICKLY AND A
LITTLE FURTHER NWWD THAN THE MODELS INDICATED SO EXPANDED ISOLD DRY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WORDING INTO THE SW AND PARTS OF CENTRAL WYOMING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MAIN THREAT WILL BE THE STRONG OUT FLOW
WINDS AND LIGHTNING WITH A FEW CELLS. VERY DRY AIR IN THE SW WITH
RKS DROPPING TO 11 PERCENT BY 11 AM AND 8 PERCENT AT SNOW SPRINGS
CREEK. ANOTHER SURGE OF MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT SO ADDED IN IDEA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/SLGHT CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SERN ZONES DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS. WEAK RIPPLE IN THE SW FLOW AND JET STREAK MAY ALSO FIRE A FEW
LATE NIGHT STORMS IN THE NWRN MTNS. MORE HIGH BASED STORMS ON
THURSDAY ACROSS THE SERN ZONES AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE FRONT IN
JOHNSON COUNTY. ONE CAVEAT TO THE SERN SWEETWATER COUNTY IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGHER PW AIR TO CLIP THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON
AS SURGE OF HIGHER THETA AIR CURRENTLY OVER ERN AND CENTRAL AZ
SURGES NWD OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS WITH PW`S OVER AN INCH FORECAST
BY THE GFS TO CLIP SERN SWEETWATER COUNTY. THE NAM IS JUST SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH DUE TO ITS MORE WLY WIND FLOW IN OUR AREA. THE UPPER
JUST MAY ALSO PROVIDE A LITTLE SUPPORT TOO DOWN THERE.
OTHERWISE...CONTINUED HOT AND WINDY. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY TODAY
BUT STRONGER ON THURSDAY WITH LOW TO THE NORTH AND FRONT PUSHING IN.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A RELATIVELY QUIET FORECAST PERIOD AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE WEATHER. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CREATE A PERIOD OF ZONAL FLOW BEGINNING
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS MAY RESULT
IN CONTINUED PERIODS OF GUSTY WIND ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THIS COMBINATION AND THE
PRESENCE OF CRITICALLY DRY FUELS WILL PERMIT THE CONTINUATION OF THE
RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO REBUILD OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS IN RESPONSE TO
THE WEAK WAVE. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
BROUGHT OVER WESTERN WYOMING TO INTRODUCE ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER...AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FURTHER
EAST. THESE SHOWERS AND ADDED MOISTURE WILL CAUSE FLUCTUATIONS IN
TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH OUTFLOW WINDS OF
40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE AREA INCLUDING KRKS...KBPI...
KPNA...KLND...KRIW...KCPR AND KWRL. THEY WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN
FURTHER NORTH BUT THE OUTFLOW WINDS CAN IMPACT THE TERMINALS EVEN
THOUGH THE SHOWER OR STORM IS MANY MILE AWAY. A FEW WEAK SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS WITH ISOLATED GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST INCLUDING KRKS AND KCPR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WYOMING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE CODY FOOTHILLS FROM NOON ON THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
AREAS WITH CRITICALLY DRY FUELS AS HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE
90S COMBINE WITH LOW RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPR SINGLE DIGITS
TO THE MID TEENS AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS.
ADDITIONALLY...THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDER TODAY ALSO
REINFORCES THIS DECISION. THURSDAY WILL PERHAPS SEE THE MOST
EXTREME BEHAVIOR AS A STRONGLY INCREASED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
COMBINES WITH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO GIVE WESTERLY WINDS
THAT WILL GUST BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER. HAVE ALSO ADDED A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR ZONE 276 (CODY FOOTHILLS) THAT WILL START THURSDAY AT
NOON AND ALSO RUN THRU FRIDAY EVENING FOR SIMILAR REASONING.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT FRIDAY
WYZ279-280-283-285-287-300.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING WYZ276.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKRBAC
LONG TERM...BRANHAM
AVIATION...SKRBAC
FIRE WEATHER...SKRBAC






000
FXUS63 KUNR 231742
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1142 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW
AND THERMAL RIDGE BRINGING WARMER AIR BACK INTO TO THE CWA. 12Z
MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER FOR THIS AFTN AND EVNG AS MORE
SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE ACTIVITY STAYS NORTH OF THE CWA. STRONG CAP
IN PLACE WILL KEEP CONVECTION FROM FORMING ACROSS MOST OF WRN SD.
WILL DROP POPS THIS AFTERNOON NOW...AND THIS EVENING WITH THE
LATER FORECAST ISSUANCE. NAM SHOWS ENOUGH EROSION OF THE CAP
ACROSS THE WARMER NE WY TO WILL LEAVE SL CHC POPS THIS AFTN...AND
OVER THE BLKHLS AREA. HRRR IS SHOWING VERY ISOLATED STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF NE WY INTO THE NW SD PLAINS INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LEE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL MT INTO
SOUTHEAST WY. WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES NOTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST MT
INTO CENTRAL SD. CLUSTER OF SEVERE CONVECTION HEADING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...SPURRED
ON BY WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEAST WY PER WATER VAPOUR LOOP AND
30KT LOW LEVEL JET. BEHIND IT...UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER MT/WY
WITH UPSTREAM WAVES OVER ID/WESTERN MT. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS
ORGANIZED TSRA EXITING CWA BY 12Z...BUT COULD BE A FEW LINGERING
CELLS EARLY.

TODAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THERMAL
RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING. LEE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST A BIT WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL WY IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE
ROTATING AROUND RIDGE INTO MT. SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST
COMBINED WITH WY LOW RESULTS IN SOMEWHAT TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
STRENGTHENING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW UP TO 25KTS. AHEAD OF LEE
TROUGH...2-4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCIN
WEAKENING...ESPECIALLY AFTER 21Z. DIRECT UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES HARD TO DEPICT IN GUIDANCE OR TO SEE UPSTREAM ON WATER
VAPOUR...BUT A COUPLE OF WEAK 700MB SHORTWAVES FORECAST BY MODELS
TO SHIFT INTO EASTERN WY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE
LAST NUDGE TO ALLOW TSRA TO ERUPT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR 15-20M/S WITH
RATHER SLOW RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELL MOVEMENT...IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
0-6KM MEAN WIND 15-20KTS. WITH SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVEMENT THAN
GUIDANCE SHOWED YESTERDAY...IT APPEARS FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL NOT
AS CLEARLY DEFINED...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS DO REACH 150
PERCENT OF NORMAL. LOCAL FLASH FLOOD COMPOSITE PARAMETER HAS
BACKED OFF NOTICEABLY. THUS WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WATER HEADLINES
AT THIS POINT AND PASS ON CONCERN TO DAY SHIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR GUIDANCE IN THE WEST AND NEAR BIAS CORRECTED VALUES IN THE
EAST.

TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES OVER EASTERN MT WITH WARM FRONT
ACROSS NORTHERN SD. ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AS 30-40KT LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS/INTERSECTS WARM FRONT...TRANSLATING BEST
850-700MB THETA-E ADVECTION EAST OF AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP GIVEN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW.

THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE FLOPS OVER IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE/UPPER LOW
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN BC/AB. LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MT WILL MOVE
INTO CENTRAL SD. AHEAD OF IT...STRONG THERMAL RIDGE PEAKS OVER CWA
WITH DRY LINE SURGING INTO SOUTHWEST SD FROM WY. TRAILING COOL FRONT
BEHIND LOW WILL DROP INTO CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. 1-2KJ/KG POST
FRONTAL MLCAPE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF CWA. 2-3KJ/KG
MLCAPE IN WARM SECTOR LIKELY...BUT MLCIN WILL BE MUCH STRONGER
THERE. 0-6KM SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS POST FRONTAL IN THE
NORTH...WITH MARGINAL VALUES IN THE SOUTH...BUT DEEP MIXING MAY
PROMOTE SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER
SOUTHWEST SD. EXPECT SEVERE STORMS LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
FAR NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE POST FRONTAL
AND HAVE ADJUSTED NEAR/ABOVE GUIDANCE SOUTH OF DRY LINE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...COOL FRONT SURGES THROUGH CWA WITH BREEZY SPOTS
BEHIND IT AND CONVECTION MOVING EAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROF SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF SLIDES EAST...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE
WEST...BRINGING PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TODAY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
AND TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND MUCH OF WESTERN SD.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...13
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...26







000
FXUS63 KUNR 231742
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1142 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW
AND THERMAL RIDGE BRINGING WARMER AIR BACK INTO TO THE CWA. 12Z
MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER FOR THIS AFTN AND EVNG AS MORE
SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE ACTIVITY STAYS NORTH OF THE CWA. STRONG CAP
IN PLACE WILL KEEP CONVECTION FROM FORMING ACROSS MOST OF WRN SD.
WILL DROP POPS THIS AFTERNOON NOW...AND THIS EVENING WITH THE
LATER FORECAST ISSUANCE. NAM SHOWS ENOUGH EROSION OF THE CAP
ACROSS THE WARMER NE WY TO WILL LEAVE SL CHC POPS THIS AFTN...AND
OVER THE BLKHLS AREA. HRRR IS SHOWING VERY ISOLATED STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF NE WY INTO THE NW SD PLAINS INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LEE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL MT INTO
SOUTHEAST WY. WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES NOTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST MT
INTO CENTRAL SD. CLUSTER OF SEVERE CONVECTION HEADING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...SPURRED
ON BY WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEAST WY PER WATER VAPOUR LOOP AND
30KT LOW LEVEL JET. BEHIND IT...UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER MT/WY
WITH UPSTREAM WAVES OVER ID/WESTERN MT. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS
ORGANIZED TSRA EXITING CWA BY 12Z...BUT COULD BE A FEW LINGERING
CELLS EARLY.

TODAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THERMAL
RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING. LEE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST A BIT WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL WY IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE
ROTATING AROUND RIDGE INTO MT. SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST
COMBINED WITH WY LOW RESULTS IN SOMEWHAT TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
STRENGTHENING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW UP TO 25KTS. AHEAD OF LEE
TROUGH...2-4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCIN
WEAKENING...ESPECIALLY AFTER 21Z. DIRECT UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES HARD TO DEPICT IN GUIDANCE OR TO SEE UPSTREAM ON WATER
VAPOUR...BUT A COUPLE OF WEAK 700MB SHORTWAVES FORECAST BY MODELS
TO SHIFT INTO EASTERN WY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE
LAST NUDGE TO ALLOW TSRA TO ERUPT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR 15-20M/S WITH
RATHER SLOW RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELL MOVEMENT...IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
0-6KM MEAN WIND 15-20KTS. WITH SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVEMENT THAN
GUIDANCE SHOWED YESTERDAY...IT APPEARS FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL NOT
AS CLEARLY DEFINED...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS DO REACH 150
PERCENT OF NORMAL. LOCAL FLASH FLOOD COMPOSITE PARAMETER HAS
BACKED OFF NOTICEABLY. THUS WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WATER HEADLINES
AT THIS POINT AND PASS ON CONCERN TO DAY SHIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR GUIDANCE IN THE WEST AND NEAR BIAS CORRECTED VALUES IN THE
EAST.

TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES OVER EASTERN MT WITH WARM FRONT
ACROSS NORTHERN SD. ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AS 30-40KT LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS/INTERSECTS WARM FRONT...TRANSLATING BEST
850-700MB THETA-E ADVECTION EAST OF AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP GIVEN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW.

THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE FLOPS OVER IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE/UPPER LOW
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN BC/AB. LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MT WILL MOVE
INTO CENTRAL SD. AHEAD OF IT...STRONG THERMAL RIDGE PEAKS OVER CWA
WITH DRY LINE SURGING INTO SOUTHWEST SD FROM WY. TRAILING COOL FRONT
BEHIND LOW WILL DROP INTO CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. 1-2KJ/KG POST
FRONTAL MLCAPE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF CWA. 2-3KJ/KG
MLCAPE IN WARM SECTOR LIKELY...BUT MLCIN WILL BE MUCH STRONGER
THERE. 0-6KM SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS POST FRONTAL IN THE
NORTH...WITH MARGINAL VALUES IN THE SOUTH...BUT DEEP MIXING MAY
PROMOTE SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER
SOUTHWEST SD. EXPECT SEVERE STORMS LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
FAR NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE POST FRONTAL
AND HAVE ADJUSTED NEAR/ABOVE GUIDANCE SOUTH OF DRY LINE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...COOL FRONT SURGES THROUGH CWA WITH BREEZY SPOTS
BEHIND IT AND CONVECTION MOVING EAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROF SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF SLIDES EAST...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE
WEST...BRINGING PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TODAY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
AND TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND MUCH OF WESTERN SD.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...13
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...26






000
FXUS65 KRIW 231722
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1122 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

WV IMAGERY SHOWING ROBUST UPR RIDGE...SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO UPR
TROFS... CENTERED OVER CO AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WITH
THE DIRTY PORTION OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IN MT AND AROUND THE
HORN INTO SD AND NE...LEAVING THE FA DRY.

THRU THE FCST PERIOD...THE THE MEAN POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE
UPR HIGH WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH....ONLY TRENDING SWD FROM CO INTO THE
NM/AZ REGION. HOWEVER...THE N/S EXTENT OF THE HIGH WILL GET SQUASHED
BY DAY 3 AS THE WRN COASTAL TROF PUSHES ACROSS SRN CA...DECREASING
HEIGHTS OVR WY ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES...GIVING A BRIEF RESPITE TO
AN OTHERWISE VERY HOT FCST THRU THURSDAY. LEADING EDGE OF WEAK SW
EMBEDDED IN THE PERIPHERY OF UPR HIGH OVR AZ TONIGHT WILL ROTATE
CLOCKWISE ACROSS THE FA BY THIS EVENING...GIVING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH LITTLE RAIN...BUT A LITTLE DRY LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE...OVR MAINLY THE SRN AND SERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...IF A STORM CAN GO AT ALL WITH H7
TEMPS WARMING TO BETWEEN 17 AND 19 DEG C. OTHERWISE...A LITTLE
STRONGER SW WILL SWING THRU THE NWRN FA THU MORNING AROUND THE NW
CONUS TROF OFFERING SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY EVEN IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH INCREASED LAPSED RATES UNDER A COOLING MID/UPR
LVL. BY AFTERNOON THU...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH SOME
MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS S AND ERN WY...OFFERING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION...BUT MOSTLY ONLY THE FAR SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WILL HAVE ANY CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...NEAR DEVELOPING LEE SIDE SFC
LOW AND FRONT. FRIDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO
DAYS...AND DRIER AND MORE STABLE TOO...WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR
ACTIVE CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY NEAR THE WY/CO BORDER. MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND IN ADDITION TO THE ISOLATED THUNDER MENTIONED
ABOVE...WILL BE THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SRN AND ERN ZONES. BEGINNING TODAY AND LASTING THRU FRI...HOT
DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 90S WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RH VALUES RANGING
FROM THE UPR SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS AND INCREASING SW WINDS
ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE RECENTLY SEEN DRY FUEL STATUS GO CRITICAL.
WHILE TODAY WILL BE A MARGINAL RED FLAG DAY AS FAR AS WINDS AND RH
GO...THE ADDITION OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDER RAISE ENOUGH CONCERNS
TO START THE WARNING TODAY. THEN BY THURSDAY...BOTH THE SURFACE
PRESSURE FIELDS ALONG WITH INCREASED UPR FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THE
PASSING OF THE UPR WAVE AND DEVELOPING LEE LOW WILL BOTH INCREASE
THE LOCAL P GRAD AND BRING WIND DOWN FROM ALOFT INTO A WINDY
CATEGORY OVR THE CENTRAL...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FA. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FRIDAY EVEN WITH COOLER HIGH TEMPS
AROUND. HAVE EXTENDED THE RFW ACCORDINGLY SO THAT THE WARNING WILL
NOW GO FROM NOON TODAY...THRU FRI EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...HAVE ADDED
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONE 276 (CODY FOOTHILLS) THAT WILL START
THURSDAY AT NOON AND ALSO RUN THRU FRI EVENING.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UPPER LOW DIVES SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND CARVES
OUT LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. BY MONDAY.  THIS WILL
ALLOW UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES TO PHASE WITH
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...SETTING UP A BLOCKING PATTERN OVER NORTH
AMERICA WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  UPPER HIGH
OVER THE SW U.S. WILL RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY MON-WED.  BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE THIS UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER AZ BY 00Z
THURSDAY WITH THE ECEM SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST.  THIS WESTWARD SHIFT
WILL BRING A MORE UNSETTLED NW FLOW ACROSS WYOMING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY...VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH
STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE DIVIDE...A
LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.  BREEZY N-NW WINDS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS SW WYOMING THOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS FRIDAY...HOWEVER FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TO EXTREME.

SUNDAY...CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH HEAT SFC LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN.  THIS WILL BRING E-NE FLOW
AND LIGHTER WIND ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING ALONG WITH A BIT HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...WHILE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEYS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE "RING OF FIRE" BEGINS TO DEVELOP
AROUND FOUR CORNERS UPPER HIGH MONDAY WITH SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND PERIPHERY OF HIGH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
AND WESTWARD ACROSS WYOMING.  THIS WILL BRING AN INITIAL SURGE OF
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY SPREADING EAST OF THE DIVIDE LATE.  NW FLOW ALOFT WITH
LIGHT UPSLOPE E-NE SFC FLOW WILL SHIFT THE BEST MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ALONG AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A
SET UP THAT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH OUTFLOW WINDS OF
40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDING KRKS...KBPI AND KPNA...
SPREADING TOWARDS KCPR. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO SPREAD NWD INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES BY THIS
EVENING INCLUDING KLND...KRIW AND KWRL. THEY WILL BE FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN FURTHER NORTH BUT THE OUTFLOW WINDS CAN IMPACT THE
TERMINALS EVEN THOUGH THE SHOWER OR STORM IS A LONG WAY AWAY. A
FEW WEAK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS WITH ISOLATED GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST INCLUDING
KRKS AND KCPR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WYOMING FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH IS IN EFFECT  FOR THE CODY FOOTHILLS FROM NOON ON THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS WITH CRITICALLY DRY FUELS BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON...AS HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S COMBINE WITH LOW
RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPR SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS AND
INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED THUNDER TODAY ALSO REINFORCES THIS DECISION. THURSDAY
WILL PERHAPS SEE THE MOST EXTREME BEHAVIOR AS A STRONGLY INCREASED
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINES WITH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO
GIVE WESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL GUST BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER. HAVE ALSO
ADDED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONE 276 (CODY FOOTHILLS) THAT WILL
START THURSDAY AT NOON AND ALSO RUN THRU FRIDAY EVENING FOR SIMILAR
REASONING.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY
WYZ279-280-283-285-287-300.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING WYZ276.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SKRBAC
SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN








000
FXUS65 KRIW 231722
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1122 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

WV IMAGERY SHOWING ROBUST UPR RIDGE...SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO UPR
TROFS... CENTERED OVER CO AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WITH
THE DIRTY PORTION OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IN MT AND AROUND THE
HORN INTO SD AND NE...LEAVING THE FA DRY.

THRU THE FCST PERIOD...THE THE MEAN POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE
UPR HIGH WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH....ONLY TRENDING SWD FROM CO INTO THE
NM/AZ REGION. HOWEVER...THE N/S EXTENT OF THE HIGH WILL GET SQUASHED
BY DAY 3 AS THE WRN COASTAL TROF PUSHES ACROSS SRN CA...DECREASING
HEIGHTS OVR WY ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES...GIVING A BRIEF RESPITE TO
AN OTHERWISE VERY HOT FCST THRU THURSDAY. LEADING EDGE OF WEAK SW
EMBEDDED IN THE PERIPHERY OF UPR HIGH OVR AZ TONIGHT WILL ROTATE
CLOCKWISE ACROSS THE FA BY THIS EVENING...GIVING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH LITTLE RAIN...BUT A LITTLE DRY LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE...OVR MAINLY THE SRN AND SERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...IF A STORM CAN GO AT ALL WITH H7
TEMPS WARMING TO BETWEEN 17 AND 19 DEG C. OTHERWISE...A LITTLE
STRONGER SW WILL SWING THRU THE NWRN FA THU MORNING AROUND THE NW
CONUS TROF OFFERING SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY EVEN IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH INCREASED LAPSED RATES UNDER A COOLING MID/UPR
LVL. BY AFTERNOON THU...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH SOME
MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS S AND ERN WY...OFFERING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION...BUT MOSTLY ONLY THE FAR SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WILL HAVE ANY CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...NEAR DEVELOPING LEE SIDE SFC
LOW AND FRONT. FRIDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO
DAYS...AND DRIER AND MORE STABLE TOO...WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR
ACTIVE CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY NEAR THE WY/CO BORDER. MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND IN ADDITION TO THE ISOLATED THUNDER MENTIONED
ABOVE...WILL BE THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SRN AND ERN ZONES. BEGINNING TODAY AND LASTING THRU FRI...HOT
DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 90S WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RH VALUES RANGING
FROM THE UPR SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS AND INCREASING SW WINDS
ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE RECENTLY SEEN DRY FUEL STATUS GO CRITICAL.
WHILE TODAY WILL BE A MARGINAL RED FLAG DAY AS FAR AS WINDS AND RH
GO...THE ADDITION OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDER RAISE ENOUGH CONCERNS
TO START THE WARNING TODAY. THEN BY THURSDAY...BOTH THE SURFACE
PRESSURE FIELDS ALONG WITH INCREASED UPR FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THE
PASSING OF THE UPR WAVE AND DEVELOPING LEE LOW WILL BOTH INCREASE
THE LOCAL P GRAD AND BRING WIND DOWN FROM ALOFT INTO A WINDY
CATEGORY OVR THE CENTRAL...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FA. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FRIDAY EVEN WITH COOLER HIGH TEMPS
AROUND. HAVE EXTENDED THE RFW ACCORDINGLY SO THAT THE WARNING WILL
NOW GO FROM NOON TODAY...THRU FRI EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...HAVE ADDED
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONE 276 (CODY FOOTHILLS) THAT WILL START
THURSDAY AT NOON AND ALSO RUN THRU FRI EVENING.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UPPER LOW DIVES SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND CARVES
OUT LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. BY MONDAY.  THIS WILL
ALLOW UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES TO PHASE WITH
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...SETTING UP A BLOCKING PATTERN OVER NORTH
AMERICA WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  UPPER HIGH
OVER THE SW U.S. WILL RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY MON-WED.  BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE THIS UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER AZ BY 00Z
THURSDAY WITH THE ECEM SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST.  THIS WESTWARD SHIFT
WILL BRING A MORE UNSETTLED NW FLOW ACROSS WYOMING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY...VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH
STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE DIVIDE...A
LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.  BREEZY N-NW WINDS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS SW WYOMING THOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS FRIDAY...HOWEVER FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TO EXTREME.

SUNDAY...CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH HEAT SFC LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN.  THIS WILL BRING E-NE FLOW
AND LIGHTER WIND ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING ALONG WITH A BIT HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...WHILE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEYS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE "RING OF FIRE" BEGINS TO DEVELOP
AROUND FOUR CORNERS UPPER HIGH MONDAY WITH SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND PERIPHERY OF HIGH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
AND WESTWARD ACROSS WYOMING.  THIS WILL BRING AN INITIAL SURGE OF
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY SPREADING EAST OF THE DIVIDE LATE.  NW FLOW ALOFT WITH
LIGHT UPSLOPE E-NE SFC FLOW WILL SHIFT THE BEST MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ALONG AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A
SET UP THAT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH OUTFLOW WINDS OF
40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDING KRKS...KBPI AND KPNA...
SPREADING TOWARDS KCPR. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO SPREAD NWD INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES BY THIS
EVENING INCLUDING KLND...KRIW AND KWRL. THEY WILL BE FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN FURTHER NORTH BUT THE OUTFLOW WINDS CAN IMPACT THE
TERMINALS EVEN THOUGH THE SHOWER OR STORM IS A LONG WAY AWAY. A
FEW WEAK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS WITH ISOLATED GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST INCLUDING
KRKS AND KCPR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WYOMING FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH IS IN EFFECT  FOR THE CODY FOOTHILLS FROM NOON ON THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS WITH CRITICALLY DRY FUELS BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON...AS HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S COMBINE WITH LOW
RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPR SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS AND
INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED THUNDER TODAY ALSO REINFORCES THIS DECISION. THURSDAY
WILL PERHAPS SEE THE MOST EXTREME BEHAVIOR AS A STRONGLY INCREASED
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINES WITH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO
GIVE WESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL GUST BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER. HAVE ALSO
ADDED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONE 276 (CODY FOOTHILLS) THAT WILL
START THURSDAY AT NOON AND ALSO RUN THRU FRIDAY EVENING FOR SIMILAR
REASONING.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY
WYZ279-280-283-285-287-300.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING WYZ276.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SKRBAC
SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN








000
FXUS65 KRIW 231722
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1122 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

WV IMAGERY SHOWING ROBUST UPR RIDGE...SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO UPR
TROFS... CENTERED OVER CO AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WITH
THE DIRTY PORTION OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IN MT AND AROUND THE
HORN INTO SD AND NE...LEAVING THE FA DRY.

THRU THE FCST PERIOD...THE THE MEAN POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE
UPR HIGH WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH....ONLY TRENDING SWD FROM CO INTO THE
NM/AZ REGION. HOWEVER...THE N/S EXTENT OF THE HIGH WILL GET SQUASHED
BY DAY 3 AS THE WRN COASTAL TROF PUSHES ACROSS SRN CA...DECREASING
HEIGHTS OVR WY ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES...GIVING A BRIEF RESPITE TO
AN OTHERWISE VERY HOT FCST THRU THURSDAY. LEADING EDGE OF WEAK SW
EMBEDDED IN THE PERIPHERY OF UPR HIGH OVR AZ TONIGHT WILL ROTATE
CLOCKWISE ACROSS THE FA BY THIS EVENING...GIVING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH LITTLE RAIN...BUT A LITTLE DRY LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE...OVR MAINLY THE SRN AND SERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...IF A STORM CAN GO AT ALL WITH H7
TEMPS WARMING TO BETWEEN 17 AND 19 DEG C. OTHERWISE...A LITTLE
STRONGER SW WILL SWING THRU THE NWRN FA THU MORNING AROUND THE NW
CONUS TROF OFFERING SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY EVEN IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH INCREASED LAPSED RATES UNDER A COOLING MID/UPR
LVL. BY AFTERNOON THU...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH SOME
MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS S AND ERN WY...OFFERING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION...BUT MOSTLY ONLY THE FAR SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WILL HAVE ANY CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...NEAR DEVELOPING LEE SIDE SFC
LOW AND FRONT. FRIDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO
DAYS...AND DRIER AND MORE STABLE TOO...WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR
ACTIVE CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY NEAR THE WY/CO BORDER. MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND IN ADDITION TO THE ISOLATED THUNDER MENTIONED
ABOVE...WILL BE THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SRN AND ERN ZONES. BEGINNING TODAY AND LASTING THRU FRI...HOT
DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 90S WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RH VALUES RANGING
FROM THE UPR SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS AND INCREASING SW WINDS
ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE RECENTLY SEEN DRY FUEL STATUS GO CRITICAL.
WHILE TODAY WILL BE A MARGINAL RED FLAG DAY AS FAR AS WINDS AND RH
GO...THE ADDITION OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDER RAISE ENOUGH CONCERNS
TO START THE WARNING TODAY. THEN BY THURSDAY...BOTH THE SURFACE
PRESSURE FIELDS ALONG WITH INCREASED UPR FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THE
PASSING OF THE UPR WAVE AND DEVELOPING LEE LOW WILL BOTH INCREASE
THE LOCAL P GRAD AND BRING WIND DOWN FROM ALOFT INTO A WINDY
CATEGORY OVR THE CENTRAL...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FA. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FRIDAY EVEN WITH COOLER HIGH TEMPS
AROUND. HAVE EXTENDED THE RFW ACCORDINGLY SO THAT THE WARNING WILL
NOW GO FROM NOON TODAY...THRU FRI EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...HAVE ADDED
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONE 276 (CODY FOOTHILLS) THAT WILL START
THURSDAY AT NOON AND ALSO RUN THRU FRI EVENING.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UPPER LOW DIVES SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND CARVES
OUT LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. BY MONDAY.  THIS WILL
ALLOW UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES TO PHASE WITH
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...SETTING UP A BLOCKING PATTERN OVER NORTH
AMERICA WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  UPPER HIGH
OVER THE SW U.S. WILL RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY MON-WED.  BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE THIS UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER AZ BY 00Z
THURSDAY WITH THE ECEM SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST.  THIS WESTWARD SHIFT
WILL BRING A MORE UNSETTLED NW FLOW ACROSS WYOMING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY...VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH
STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE DIVIDE...A
LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.  BREEZY N-NW WINDS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS SW WYOMING THOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS FRIDAY...HOWEVER FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TO EXTREME.

SUNDAY...CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH HEAT SFC LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN.  THIS WILL BRING E-NE FLOW
AND LIGHTER WIND ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING ALONG WITH A BIT HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...WHILE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEYS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE "RING OF FIRE" BEGINS TO DEVELOP
AROUND FOUR CORNERS UPPER HIGH MONDAY WITH SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND PERIPHERY OF HIGH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
AND WESTWARD ACROSS WYOMING.  THIS WILL BRING AN INITIAL SURGE OF
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY SPREADING EAST OF THE DIVIDE LATE.  NW FLOW ALOFT WITH
LIGHT UPSLOPE E-NE SFC FLOW WILL SHIFT THE BEST MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ALONG AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A
SET UP THAT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH OUTFLOW WINDS OF
40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDING KRKS...KBPI AND KPNA...
SPREADING TOWARDS KCPR. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO SPREAD NWD INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES BY THIS
EVENING INCLUDING KLND...KRIW AND KWRL. THEY WILL BE FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN FURTHER NORTH BUT THE OUTFLOW WINDS CAN IMPACT THE
TERMINALS EVEN THOUGH THE SHOWER OR STORM IS A LONG WAY AWAY. A
FEW WEAK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS WITH ISOLATED GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST INCLUDING
KRKS AND KCPR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WYOMING FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH IS IN EFFECT  FOR THE CODY FOOTHILLS FROM NOON ON THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS WITH CRITICALLY DRY FUELS BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON...AS HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S COMBINE WITH LOW
RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPR SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS AND
INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED THUNDER TODAY ALSO REINFORCES THIS DECISION. THURSDAY
WILL PERHAPS SEE THE MOST EXTREME BEHAVIOR AS A STRONGLY INCREASED
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINES WITH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO
GIVE WESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL GUST BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER. HAVE ALSO
ADDED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONE 276 (CODY FOOTHILLS) THAT WILL
START THURSDAY AT NOON AND ALSO RUN THRU FRIDAY EVENING FOR SIMILAR
REASONING.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY
WYZ279-280-283-285-287-300.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING WYZ276.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SKRBAC
SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN








000
FXUS65 KRIW 231722
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1122 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

WV IMAGERY SHOWING ROBUST UPR RIDGE...SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO UPR
TROFS... CENTERED OVER CO AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WITH
THE DIRTY PORTION OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IN MT AND AROUND THE
HORN INTO SD AND NE...LEAVING THE FA DRY.

THRU THE FCST PERIOD...THE THE MEAN POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE
UPR HIGH WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH....ONLY TRENDING SWD FROM CO INTO THE
NM/AZ REGION. HOWEVER...THE N/S EXTENT OF THE HIGH WILL GET SQUASHED
BY DAY 3 AS THE WRN COASTAL TROF PUSHES ACROSS SRN CA...DECREASING
HEIGHTS OVR WY ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES...GIVING A BRIEF RESPITE TO
AN OTHERWISE VERY HOT FCST THRU THURSDAY. LEADING EDGE OF WEAK SW
EMBEDDED IN THE PERIPHERY OF UPR HIGH OVR AZ TONIGHT WILL ROTATE
CLOCKWISE ACROSS THE FA BY THIS EVENING...GIVING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH LITTLE RAIN...BUT A LITTLE DRY LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE...OVR MAINLY THE SRN AND SERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...IF A STORM CAN GO AT ALL WITH H7
TEMPS WARMING TO BETWEEN 17 AND 19 DEG C. OTHERWISE...A LITTLE
STRONGER SW WILL SWING THRU THE NWRN FA THU MORNING AROUND THE NW
CONUS TROF OFFERING SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY EVEN IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH INCREASED LAPSED RATES UNDER A COOLING MID/UPR
LVL. BY AFTERNOON THU...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH SOME
MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS S AND ERN WY...OFFERING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION...BUT MOSTLY ONLY THE FAR SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WILL HAVE ANY CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...NEAR DEVELOPING LEE SIDE SFC
LOW AND FRONT. FRIDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO
DAYS...AND DRIER AND MORE STABLE TOO...WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR
ACTIVE CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY NEAR THE WY/CO BORDER. MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND IN ADDITION TO THE ISOLATED THUNDER MENTIONED
ABOVE...WILL BE THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SRN AND ERN ZONES. BEGINNING TODAY AND LASTING THRU FRI...HOT
DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 90S WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RH VALUES RANGING
FROM THE UPR SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS AND INCREASING SW WINDS
ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE RECENTLY SEEN DRY FUEL STATUS GO CRITICAL.
WHILE TODAY WILL BE A MARGINAL RED FLAG DAY AS FAR AS WINDS AND RH
GO...THE ADDITION OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDER RAISE ENOUGH CONCERNS
TO START THE WARNING TODAY. THEN BY THURSDAY...BOTH THE SURFACE
PRESSURE FIELDS ALONG WITH INCREASED UPR FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THE
PASSING OF THE UPR WAVE AND DEVELOPING LEE LOW WILL BOTH INCREASE
THE LOCAL P GRAD AND BRING WIND DOWN FROM ALOFT INTO A WINDY
CATEGORY OVR THE CENTRAL...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FA. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FRIDAY EVEN WITH COOLER HIGH TEMPS
AROUND. HAVE EXTENDED THE RFW ACCORDINGLY SO THAT THE WARNING WILL
NOW GO FROM NOON TODAY...THRU FRI EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...HAVE ADDED
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONE 276 (CODY FOOTHILLS) THAT WILL START
THURSDAY AT NOON AND ALSO RUN THRU FRI EVENING.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UPPER LOW DIVES SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND CARVES
OUT LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. BY MONDAY.  THIS WILL
ALLOW UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES TO PHASE WITH
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...SETTING UP A BLOCKING PATTERN OVER NORTH
AMERICA WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  UPPER HIGH
OVER THE SW U.S. WILL RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY MON-WED.  BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE THIS UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER AZ BY 00Z
THURSDAY WITH THE ECEM SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST.  THIS WESTWARD SHIFT
WILL BRING A MORE UNSETTLED NW FLOW ACROSS WYOMING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY...VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH
STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE DIVIDE...A
LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.  BREEZY N-NW WINDS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS SW WYOMING THOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS FRIDAY...HOWEVER FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TO EXTREME.

SUNDAY...CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH HEAT SFC LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN.  THIS WILL BRING E-NE FLOW
AND LIGHTER WIND ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING ALONG WITH A BIT HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...WHILE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEYS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE "RING OF FIRE" BEGINS TO DEVELOP
AROUND FOUR CORNERS UPPER HIGH MONDAY WITH SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND PERIPHERY OF HIGH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
AND WESTWARD ACROSS WYOMING.  THIS WILL BRING AN INITIAL SURGE OF
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY SPREADING EAST OF THE DIVIDE LATE.  NW FLOW ALOFT WITH
LIGHT UPSLOPE E-NE SFC FLOW WILL SHIFT THE BEST MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ALONG AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A
SET UP THAT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH OUTFLOW WINDS OF
40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDING KRKS...KBPI AND KPNA...
SPREADING TOWARDS KCPR. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO SPREAD NWD INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES BY THIS
EVENING INCLUDING KLND...KRIW AND KWRL. THEY WILL BE FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN FURTHER NORTH BUT THE OUTFLOW WINDS CAN IMPACT THE
TERMINALS EVEN THOUGH THE SHOWER OR STORM IS A LONG WAY AWAY. A
FEW WEAK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS WITH ISOLATED GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST INCLUDING
KRKS AND KCPR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WYOMING FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH IS IN EFFECT  FOR THE CODY FOOTHILLS FROM NOON ON THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS WITH CRITICALLY DRY FUELS BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON...AS HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S COMBINE WITH LOW
RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPR SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS AND
INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED THUNDER TODAY ALSO REINFORCES THIS DECISION. THURSDAY
WILL PERHAPS SEE THE MOST EXTREME BEHAVIOR AS A STRONGLY INCREASED
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINES WITH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO
GIVE WESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL GUST BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER. HAVE ALSO
ADDED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONE 276 (CODY FOOTHILLS) THAT WILL
START THURSDAY AT NOON AND ALSO RUN THRU FRIDAY EVENING FOR SIMILAR
REASONING.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY
WYZ279-280-283-285-287-300.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING WYZ276.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SKRBAC
SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN








000
FXUS65 KCYS 231718
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1118 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

EAST UPSLOPE FLOW IS CURRENTLY HOLDING THE LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND
INTO PARTS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT BY
LATE THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING A BIG IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES
OR CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS
AND STABLE MID LEVEL AIR LEFT BEHIND FORM LAST NIGHTS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIALLY INHIBIT EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE PLAINS. ONE THING OF NOTE IS THE STABLE
LAYER THAT IS IN PLACE MAY BE STRONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST...WHICH
COULD HAVE A BROADER IMPACT ON DECREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

AT THIS TIME IS APPEARS THE MAIN CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
PLAINS WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT INTO EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GIVEN A STRONGER SHEAR PROFILE AND HIGHER
CAPE VALUES. MAIN THREAT WILL BE THE LARGE HAIL BUT STRONG WINDS
AND AN AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE. WITH ANY LUCK MOST
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE PLAINS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP AND STRONGER MID LEVEL
THETAE ADVECTION KICKS IN. THIS WILL MAKE FOR THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TOWARD CHADRON AND POINTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

LOTS OF FORECAST CHALLENGES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...RANGING
FROM SEVERE CONVECTIVE WEATHER TODAY TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

CURRENTLY...THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT DID MOVE INTO THE AREA
LAST EVENING AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM
CASPER...ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE DOWN TO LARAMIE AND THEN INTO
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. THIS FRONT IS SEPARATING VERY MOIST AIR
EAST OF THE FRONT...CHEYENNE HAS A 1AM DEWPOINT OF 57F/LARAMIE
55F...FROM VERY DRY AIR OUT OVER CARBON COUNTY WHERE THE DEWPOINT
AT RAWLINS IS 29F. THIS FEATURE IS GOING TO PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN
TODAYS FORECAST WEATHER.

FOR TODAY...FRONT IS GOING TO REMAIN AT ITS CURRENT LOCATION
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE IT STARTS TO GET FORCED EAST WITH
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW. LATEST HRRR FORECAST COMPOSITE
REFLECTIVITY HAS CONVECTION INITIATING ACROSS ALBANY COUNTY AND
THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE RIGHT AROUND 20Z TODAY DURING PEAK
HEATING. NAM SOUNDING FOR CHEYENNE HAS CAPE AROUND 1300 J/KG AT
THAT TIME WITH NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. PANHANDLE STAYS CAPPED A
LITTLE LONGER...NOT BREAKING THE CAP UNTIL AFTER 00Z. MUCH MORE
UNSTABLE OUT THERE WITH CHADRON NAM SOUNDING SHOWING SBCAPE CLOSE
TO 3500 J/KG. THINK DAY 1 SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA IS PRETTY
GOOD...BUT DO THINK THE LARAMIE COUNTY IS GOING TO SEE SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AND HAVE TAILORED OUR FORECAST WITH LARAMIE
COUNTY EXPERIENCING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS...THEN
SPREADING EAST INTO THE PANHANDLE AFTER 00Z...AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST AS A DRY LINE.

FOR THURSDAY...UPPER LOW MOVES INTO MONTANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH 700MB WINDS INCREASING OVER WYOMING. BY 18Z GFS 700MB WINDS
INCREASE TO 25-30KTS OVER CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW A UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER
RIDGE ALONG THE COLORADO/WYOMING LINE THAT WILL INTERACT WITH SOME
RESIDUAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO CREATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. GFS
HAS PRECIP MAINLY OVER COLORADO...WHILE ECMWF SPREAD THIS MOISTURE
NORTH INTO WYOMING. DID A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS WITH CHANCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER, FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF DRY
THUNDERSTORMS OUT WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THAT HAS ME A LITTLE
WORRIED ABOUT FIRE STARTS AS AFTERNOON MIN HUMIDITIES FALL TO 10
PERCENT ACROSS CARBON...NORTH ALBANY AND WEST CONVERSE COUNTIES.
WENT AHEAD WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THURSDAY FOR CONVERSE
COUNTY AS THIS AREA LOOKS TO BE THE BEST FOR A COMBINATION OF LOW
HUMIDITIES...GUSTY WINDS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS.

GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH VERY DRY DOWNSLOPING
WINDS OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE. COULD BE LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

MODELS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE
OVERALL PATTERN...SHOWING A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH NUDGES SOUTHWARD AND THE
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN
REGION. THERE ARE STILL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS REGARDING
AVAILABLE LOW TO MIDLEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH A SERIES OF COOL FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY
NIGHT...THE LACK OF ANY DEFINED DISTURBANCES IS CREATING QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH TSTORM CHANCES INTO MONDAY. CURRENT 00Z
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO TREND DRIER...AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW
RESULTS IN A BIT MORE STABILITY THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...NUDGING
THE MONSOON MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
AND COLORADO. STARTED TO LOWER POP FOR THIS WEEKEND ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH SINCE THE ECMWF IS NOW
TRENDING DRIER AS WELL. CURRENT SOUNDINGS SHOW TOO MUCH DRY AIR
ALOFT...SUPPRESSING ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM. AFTER ANOTHER
WARM DAY ON SATURDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO LOWER BELOW NORMAL
ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S UNDER COOL EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW.

CONDITIONS BECOME A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AFTER MONDAY AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING CLOCKWISE AROUND
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND INTO WYOMING. INCREASED POP LATE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE ON THE AGGRESSIVE SIDE WITH A HIGHER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS...AT LEAST SCATTERED DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING BY WEDNESDAY.
KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DUE TO EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW AND 700MB TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO BELOW 10C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)

VFR EXPECTED OVERALL FOR ALL AERODROMES THROUGH THURSDAY.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTRMS OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
ASSOCIATED MVFR VSBYS BUT LOOKING TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN
INDIVIDUAL TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN CARBON COUNTY AGAIN TODAY. A COLD
FRONT GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM CASPER TO LARAMIE WILL SEPARATE
RELATIVELY MOIST AIR EAST OF THE FRONT FROM THE REALLY DRY AIR TO
THE WEST. WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY IN THE EASTERN SECTOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES. CONDITIONS CHANGE
FOR THURSDAY THOUGH AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE EAST AGAIN AND
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES EARLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TO COMPLICATE THE CONDITIONS MORE...WE HAVE
THE POSSIBILITY OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
THAT COULD CREATE SOME FIRE STARTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FWZ 301 FOR THURSDAY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WYZ301.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB






000
FXUS65 KCYS 231718
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1118 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

EAST UPSLOPE FLOW IS CURRENTLY HOLDING THE LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND
INTO PARTS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT BY
LATE THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING A BIG IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES
OR CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS
AND STABLE MID LEVEL AIR LEFT BEHIND FORM LAST NIGHTS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIALLY INHIBIT EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE PLAINS. ONE THING OF NOTE IS THE STABLE
LAYER THAT IS IN PLACE MAY BE STRONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST...WHICH
COULD HAVE A BROADER IMPACT ON DECREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

AT THIS TIME IS APPEARS THE MAIN CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
PLAINS WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT INTO EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GIVEN A STRONGER SHEAR PROFILE AND HIGHER
CAPE VALUES. MAIN THREAT WILL BE THE LARGE HAIL BUT STRONG WINDS
AND AN AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE. WITH ANY LUCK MOST
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE PLAINS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP AND STRONGER MID LEVEL
THETAE ADVECTION KICKS IN. THIS WILL MAKE FOR THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TOWARD CHADRON AND POINTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

LOTS OF FORECAST CHALLENGES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...RANGING
FROM SEVERE CONVECTIVE WEATHER TODAY TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

CURRENTLY...THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT DID MOVE INTO THE AREA
LAST EVENING AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM
CASPER...ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE DOWN TO LARAMIE AND THEN INTO
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. THIS FRONT IS SEPARATING VERY MOIST AIR
EAST OF THE FRONT...CHEYENNE HAS A 1AM DEWPOINT OF 57F/LARAMIE
55F...FROM VERY DRY AIR OUT OVER CARBON COUNTY WHERE THE DEWPOINT
AT RAWLINS IS 29F. THIS FEATURE IS GOING TO PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN
TODAYS FORECAST WEATHER.

FOR TODAY...FRONT IS GOING TO REMAIN AT ITS CURRENT LOCATION
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE IT STARTS TO GET FORCED EAST WITH
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW. LATEST HRRR FORECAST COMPOSITE
REFLECTIVITY HAS CONVECTION INITIATING ACROSS ALBANY COUNTY AND
THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE RIGHT AROUND 20Z TODAY DURING PEAK
HEATING. NAM SOUNDING FOR CHEYENNE HAS CAPE AROUND 1300 J/KG AT
THAT TIME WITH NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. PANHANDLE STAYS CAPPED A
LITTLE LONGER...NOT BREAKING THE CAP UNTIL AFTER 00Z. MUCH MORE
UNSTABLE OUT THERE WITH CHADRON NAM SOUNDING SHOWING SBCAPE CLOSE
TO 3500 J/KG. THINK DAY 1 SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA IS PRETTY
GOOD...BUT DO THINK THE LARAMIE COUNTY IS GOING TO SEE SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AND HAVE TAILORED OUR FORECAST WITH LARAMIE
COUNTY EXPERIENCING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS...THEN
SPREADING EAST INTO THE PANHANDLE AFTER 00Z...AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST AS A DRY LINE.

FOR THURSDAY...UPPER LOW MOVES INTO MONTANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH 700MB WINDS INCREASING OVER WYOMING. BY 18Z GFS 700MB WINDS
INCREASE TO 25-30KTS OVER CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW A UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER
RIDGE ALONG THE COLORADO/WYOMING LINE THAT WILL INTERACT WITH SOME
RESIDUAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO CREATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. GFS
HAS PRECIP MAINLY OVER COLORADO...WHILE ECMWF SPREAD THIS MOISTURE
NORTH INTO WYOMING. DID A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS WITH CHANCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER, FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF DRY
THUNDERSTORMS OUT WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THAT HAS ME A LITTLE
WORRIED ABOUT FIRE STARTS AS AFTERNOON MIN HUMIDITIES FALL TO 10
PERCENT ACROSS CARBON...NORTH ALBANY AND WEST CONVERSE COUNTIES.
WENT AHEAD WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THURSDAY FOR CONVERSE
COUNTY AS THIS AREA LOOKS TO BE THE BEST FOR A COMBINATION OF LOW
HUMIDITIES...GUSTY WINDS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS.

GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH VERY DRY DOWNSLOPING
WINDS OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE. COULD BE LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

MODELS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE
OVERALL PATTERN...SHOWING A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH NUDGES SOUTHWARD AND THE
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN
REGION. THERE ARE STILL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS REGARDING
AVAILABLE LOW TO MIDLEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH A SERIES OF COOL FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY
NIGHT...THE LACK OF ANY DEFINED DISTURBANCES IS CREATING QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH TSTORM CHANCES INTO MONDAY. CURRENT 00Z
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO TREND DRIER...AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW
RESULTS IN A BIT MORE STABILITY THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...NUDGING
THE MONSOON MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
AND COLORADO. STARTED TO LOWER POP FOR THIS WEEKEND ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH SINCE THE ECMWF IS NOW
TRENDING DRIER AS WELL. CURRENT SOUNDINGS SHOW TOO MUCH DRY AIR
ALOFT...SUPPRESSING ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM. AFTER ANOTHER
WARM DAY ON SATURDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO LOWER BELOW NORMAL
ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S UNDER COOL EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW.

CONDITIONS BECOME A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AFTER MONDAY AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING CLOCKWISE AROUND
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND INTO WYOMING. INCREASED POP LATE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE ON THE AGGRESSIVE SIDE WITH A HIGHER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS...AT LEAST SCATTERED DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING BY WEDNESDAY.
KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DUE TO EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW AND 700MB TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO BELOW 10C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)

VFR EXPECTED OVERALL FOR ALL AERODROMES THROUGH THURSDAY.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTRMS OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
ASSOCIATED MVFR VSBYS BUT LOOKING TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN
INDIVIDUAL TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN CARBON COUNTY AGAIN TODAY. A COLD
FRONT GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM CASPER TO LARAMIE WILL SEPARATE
RELATIVELY MOIST AIR EAST OF THE FRONT FROM THE REALLY DRY AIR TO
THE WEST. WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY IN THE EASTERN SECTOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES. CONDITIONS CHANGE
FOR THURSDAY THOUGH AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE EAST AGAIN AND
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES EARLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TO COMPLICATE THE CONDITIONS MORE...WE HAVE
THE POSSIBILITY OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
THAT COULD CREATE SOME FIRE STARTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FWZ 301 FOR THURSDAY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WYZ301.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB





000
FXUS63 KUNR 231716
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1116 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LEE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL MT INTO
SOUTHEAST WY. WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES NOTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST MT
INTO CENTRAL SD. CLUSTER OF SEVERE CONVECTION HEADING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...SPURRED
ON BY WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEAST WY PER WATER VAPOUR LOOP AND
30KT LOW LEVEL JET. BEHIND IT...UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER MT/WY
WITH UPSTREAM WAVES OVER ID/WESTERN MT. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS
ORGANIZED TSRA EXITING CWA BY 12Z...BUT COULD BE A FEW LINGERING
CELLS EARLY.

TODAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THERMAL
RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING. LEE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST A BIT WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL WY IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE
ROTATING AROUND RIDGE INTO MT. SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST
COMBINED WITH WY LOW RESULTS IN SOMEWHAT TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
STRENGTHENING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW UP TO 25KTS. AHEAD OF LEE
TROUGH...2-4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCIN
WEAKENING...ESPECIALLY AFTER 21Z. DIRECT UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES HARD TO DEPICT IN GUIDANCE OR TO SEE UPSTREAM ON WATER
VAPOUR...BUT A COUPLE OF WEAK 700MB SHORTWAVES FORECAST BY MODELS
TO SHIFT INTO EASTERN WY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE
LAST NUDGE TO ALLOW TSRA TO ERUPT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR 15-20M/S WITH
RATHER SLOW RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELL MOVEMENT...IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
0-6KM MEAN WIND 15-20KTS. WITH SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVEMENT THAN
GUIDANCE SHOWED YESTERDAY...IT APPEARS FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL NOT
AS CLEARLY DEFINED...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS DO REACH 150
PERCENT OF NORMAL. LOCAL FLASH FLOOD COMPOSITE PARAMETER HAS
BACKED OFF NOTICEABLY. THUS WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WATER HEADLINES
AT THIS POINT AND PASS ON CONCERN TO DAY SHIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR GUIDANCE IN THE WEST AND NEAR BIAS CORRECTED VALUES IN THE
EAST.

TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES OVER EASTERN MT WITH WARM FRONT
ACROSS NORTHERN SD. ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AS 30-40KT LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS/INTERSECTS WARM FRONT...TRANSLATING BEST
850-700MB THETA-E ADVECTION EAST OF AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP GIVEN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW.

THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE FLOPS OVER IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE/UPPER LOW
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN BC/AB. LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MT WILL MOVE
INTO CENTRAL SD. AHEAD OF IT...STRONG THERMAL RIDGE PEAKS OVER CWA
WITH DRY LINE SURGING INTO SOUTHWEST SD FROM WY. TRAILING COOL FRONT
BEHIND LOW WILL DROP INTO CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. 1-2KJ/KG POST
FRONTAL MLCAPE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF CWA. 2-3KJ/KG
MLCAPE IN WARM SECTOR LIKELY...BUT MLCIN WILL BE MUCH STRONGER
THERE. 0-6KM SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS POST FRONTAL IN THE
NORTH...WITH MARGINAL VALUES IN THE SOUTH...BUT DEEP MIXING MAY
PROMOTE SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER
SOUTHWEST SD. EXPECT SEVERE STORMS LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
FAR NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE POST FRONTAL
AND HAVE ADJUSTED NEAR/ABOVE GUIDANCE SOUTH OF DRY LINE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...COOL FRONT SURGES THROUGH CWA WITH BREEZY SPOTS
BEHIND IT AND CONVECTION MOVING EAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROF SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF SLIDES EAST...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE
WEST...BRINGING PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TODAY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
AND TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND MUCH OF WESTERN SD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...26







000
FXUS63 KUNR 231716
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1116 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LEE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL MT INTO
SOUTHEAST WY. WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES NOTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST MT
INTO CENTRAL SD. CLUSTER OF SEVERE CONVECTION HEADING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...SPURRED
ON BY WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEAST WY PER WATER VAPOUR LOOP AND
30KT LOW LEVEL JET. BEHIND IT...UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER MT/WY
WITH UPSTREAM WAVES OVER ID/WESTERN MT. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS
ORGANIZED TSRA EXITING CWA BY 12Z...BUT COULD BE A FEW LINGERING
CELLS EARLY.

TODAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THERMAL
RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING. LEE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST A BIT WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL WY IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE
ROTATING AROUND RIDGE INTO MT. SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST
COMBINED WITH WY LOW RESULTS IN SOMEWHAT TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
STRENGTHENING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW UP TO 25KTS. AHEAD OF LEE
TROUGH...2-4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCIN
WEAKENING...ESPECIALLY AFTER 21Z. DIRECT UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES HARD TO DEPICT IN GUIDANCE OR TO SEE UPSTREAM ON WATER
VAPOUR...BUT A COUPLE OF WEAK 700MB SHORTWAVES FORECAST BY MODELS
TO SHIFT INTO EASTERN WY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE
LAST NUDGE TO ALLOW TSRA TO ERUPT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR 15-20M/S WITH
RATHER SLOW RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELL MOVEMENT...IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
0-6KM MEAN WIND 15-20KTS. WITH SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVEMENT THAN
GUIDANCE SHOWED YESTERDAY...IT APPEARS FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL NOT
AS CLEARLY DEFINED...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS DO REACH 150
PERCENT OF NORMAL. LOCAL FLASH FLOOD COMPOSITE PARAMETER HAS
BACKED OFF NOTICEABLY. THUS WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WATER HEADLINES
AT THIS POINT AND PASS ON CONCERN TO DAY SHIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR GUIDANCE IN THE WEST AND NEAR BIAS CORRECTED VALUES IN THE
EAST.

TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES OVER EASTERN MT WITH WARM FRONT
ACROSS NORTHERN SD. ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AS 30-40KT LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS/INTERSECTS WARM FRONT...TRANSLATING BEST
850-700MB THETA-E ADVECTION EAST OF AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP GIVEN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW.

THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE FLOPS OVER IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE/UPPER LOW
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN BC/AB. LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MT WILL MOVE
INTO CENTRAL SD. AHEAD OF IT...STRONG THERMAL RIDGE PEAKS OVER CWA
WITH DRY LINE SURGING INTO SOUTHWEST SD FROM WY. TRAILING COOL FRONT
BEHIND LOW WILL DROP INTO CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. 1-2KJ/KG POST
FRONTAL MLCAPE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF CWA. 2-3KJ/KG
MLCAPE IN WARM SECTOR LIKELY...BUT MLCIN WILL BE MUCH STRONGER
THERE. 0-6KM SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS POST FRONTAL IN THE
NORTH...WITH MARGINAL VALUES IN THE SOUTH...BUT DEEP MIXING MAY
PROMOTE SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER
SOUTHWEST SD. EXPECT SEVERE STORMS LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
FAR NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE POST FRONTAL
AND HAVE ADJUSTED NEAR/ABOVE GUIDANCE SOUTH OF DRY LINE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...COOL FRONT SURGES THROUGH CWA WITH BREEZY SPOTS
BEHIND IT AND CONVECTION MOVING EAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROF SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF SLIDES EAST...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE
WEST...BRINGING PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TODAY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
AND TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND MUCH OF WESTERN SD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS65 KCYS 231512
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
912 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

EAST UPSLOPE FLOW IS CURRENTLY HOLDING THE LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND
INTO PARTS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT BY
LATE THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING A BIG IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES
OR CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS
AND STABLE MID LEVEL AIR LEFT BEHIND FORM LAST NIGHTS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIALLY INHIBIT EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE PLAINS. ONE THING OF NOTE IS THE STABLE
LAYER THAT IS IN PLACE MAY BE STRONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST...WHICH
COULD HAVE A BROADER IMPACT ON DECREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

AT THIS TIME IS APPEARS THE MAIN CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
PLAINS WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT INTO EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GIVEN A STRONGER SHEAR PROFILE AND HIGHER
CAPE VALUES. MAIN THREAT WILL BE THE LARGE HAIL BUT STRONG WINDS
AND AN AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE. WITH ANY LUCK MOST
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE PLAINS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP AND STRONGER MID LEVEL
THETAE ADVECTION KICKS IN. THIS WILL MAKE FOR THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TOWARD CHADRON AND POINTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

LOTS OF FORECAST CHALLENGES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...RANGING
FROM SEVERE CONVECTIVE WEATHER TODAY TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

CURRENTLY...THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT DID MOVE INTO THE AREA
LAST EVENING AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM
CASPER...ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE DOWN TO LARAMIE AND THEN INTO
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. THIS FRONT IS SEPARATING VERY MOIST AIR
EAST OF THE FRONT...CHEYENNE HAS A 1AM DEWPOINT OF 57F/LARAMIE
55F...FROM VERY DRY AIR OUT OVER CARBON COUNTY WHERE THE DEWPOINT
AT RAWLINS IS 29F. THIS FEATURE IS GOING TO PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN
TODAYS FORECAST WEATHER.

FOR TODAY...FRONT IS GOING TO REMAIN AT ITS CURRENT LOCATION
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE IT STARTS TO GET FORCED EAST WITH
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW. LATEST HRRR FORECAST COMPOSITE
REFLECTIVITY HAS CONVECTION INITIATING ACROSS ALBANY COUNTY AND
THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE RIGHT AROUND 20Z TODAY DURING PEAK
HEATING. NAM SOUNDING FOR CHEYENNE HAS CAPE AROUND 1300 J/KG AT
THAT TIME WITH NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. PANHANDLE STAYS CAPPED A
LITTLE LONGER...NOT BREAKING THE CAP UNTIL AFTER 00Z. MUCH MORE
UNSTABLE OUT THERE WITH CHADRON NAM SOUNDING SHOWING SBCAPE CLOSE
TO 3500 J/KG. THINK DAY 1 SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA IS PRETTY
GOOD...BUT DO THINK THE LARAMIE COUNTY IS GOING TO SEE SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AND HAVE TAILORED OUR FORECAST WITH LARAMIE
COUNTY EXPERIENCING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS...THEN
SPREADING EAST INTO THE PANHANDLE AFTER 00Z...AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST AS A DRY LINE.

FOR THURSDAY...UPPER LOW MOVES INTO MONTANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH 700MB WINDS INCREASING OVER WYOMING. BY 18Z GFS 700MB WINDS
INCREASE TO 25-30KTS OVER CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW A UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER
RIDGE ALONG THE COLORADO/WYOMING LINE THAT WILL INTERACT WITH SOME
RESIDUAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO CREATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. GFS
HAS PRECIP MAINLY OVER COLORADO...WHILE ECMWF SPREAD THIS MOISTURE
NORTH INTO WYOMING. DID A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS WITH CHANCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER, FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF DRY
THUNDERSTORMS OUT WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THAT HAS ME A LITTLE
WORRIED ABOUT FIRE STARTS AS AFTERNOON MIN HUMIDITIES FALL TO 10
PERCENT ACROSS CARBON...NORTH ALBANY AND WEST CONVERSE COUNTIES.
WENT AHEAD WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THURSDAY FOR CONVERSE
COUNTY AS THIS AREA LOOKS TO BE THE BEST FOR A COMBINATION OF LOW
HUMIDITIES...GUSTY WINDS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS.

GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH VERY DRY DOWNSLOPING
WINDS OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE. COULD BE LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

MODELS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE
OVERALL PATTERN...SHOWING A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH NUDGES SOUTHWARD AND THE
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN
REGION. THERE ARE STILL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS REGARDING
AVAILABLE LOW TO MIDLEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH A SERIES OF COOL FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY
NIGHT...THE LACK OF ANY DEFINED DISTURBANCES IS CREATING QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH TSTORM CHANCES INTO MONDAY. CURRENT 00Z
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO TREND DRIER...AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW
RESULTS IN A BIT MORE STABILITY THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...NUDGING
THE MONSOON MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
AND COLORADO. STARTED TO LOWER POP FOR THIS WEEKEND ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH SINCE THE ECMWF IS NOW
TRENDING DRIER AS WELL. CURRENT SOUNDINGS SHOW TOO MUCH DRY AIR
ALOFT...SUPPRESSING ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM. AFTER ANOTHER
WARM DAY ON SATURDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO LOWER BELOW NORMAL
ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S UNDER COOL EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW.

CONDITIONS BECOME A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AFTER MONDAY AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING CLOCKWISE AROUND
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND INTO WYOMING. INCREASED POP LATE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE ON THE AGGRESSIVE SIDE WITH A HIGHER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS...AT LEAST SCATTERED DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING BY WEDNESDAY.
KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DUE TO EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW AND 700MB TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO BELOW 10C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
BRIEF MVFR VIS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE HIGH PLAINS IN ADDITION TO KLAR
BEGINNING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOW
CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT
THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME TO ADD TO AREA
TAFS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN CARBON COUNTY AGAIN TODAY. A COLD
FRONT GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM CASPER TO LARAMIE WILL SEPARATE
RELATIVELY MOIST AIR EAST OF THE FRONT FROM THE REALLY DRY AIR TO
THE WEST. WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY IN THE EASTERN SECTOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES. CONDITIONS CHANGE
FOR THURSDAY THOUGH AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE EAST AGAIN AND
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES EARLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TO COMPLICATE THE CONDITIONS MORE...WE HAVE
THE POSSIBILITY OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
THAT COULD CREATE SOME FIRE STARTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FWZ 301 FOR THURSDAY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WYZ301.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB







000
FXUS65 KCYS 231512
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
912 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

EAST UPSLOPE FLOW IS CURRENTLY HOLDING THE LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND
INTO PARTS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT BY
LATE THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING A BIG IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES
OR CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS
AND STABLE MID LEVEL AIR LEFT BEHIND FORM LAST NIGHTS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIALLY INHIBIT EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE PLAINS. ONE THING OF NOTE IS THE STABLE
LAYER THAT IS IN PLACE MAY BE STRONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST...WHICH
COULD HAVE A BROADER IMPACT ON DECREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

AT THIS TIME IS APPEARS THE MAIN CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
PLAINS WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT INTO EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GIVEN A STRONGER SHEAR PROFILE AND HIGHER
CAPE VALUES. MAIN THREAT WILL BE THE LARGE HAIL BUT STRONG WINDS
AND AN AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE. WITH ANY LUCK MOST
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE PLAINS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP AND STRONGER MID LEVEL
THETAE ADVECTION KICKS IN. THIS WILL MAKE FOR THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TOWARD CHADRON AND POINTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

LOTS OF FORECAST CHALLENGES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...RANGING
FROM SEVERE CONVECTIVE WEATHER TODAY TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

CURRENTLY...THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT DID MOVE INTO THE AREA
LAST EVENING AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM
CASPER...ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE DOWN TO LARAMIE AND THEN INTO
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. THIS FRONT IS SEPARATING VERY MOIST AIR
EAST OF THE FRONT...CHEYENNE HAS A 1AM DEWPOINT OF 57F/LARAMIE
55F...FROM VERY DRY AIR OUT OVER CARBON COUNTY WHERE THE DEWPOINT
AT RAWLINS IS 29F. THIS FEATURE IS GOING TO PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN
TODAYS FORECAST WEATHER.

FOR TODAY...FRONT IS GOING TO REMAIN AT ITS CURRENT LOCATION
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE IT STARTS TO GET FORCED EAST WITH
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW. LATEST HRRR FORECAST COMPOSITE
REFLECTIVITY HAS CONVECTION INITIATING ACROSS ALBANY COUNTY AND
THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE RIGHT AROUND 20Z TODAY DURING PEAK
HEATING. NAM SOUNDING FOR CHEYENNE HAS CAPE AROUND 1300 J/KG AT
THAT TIME WITH NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. PANHANDLE STAYS CAPPED A
LITTLE LONGER...NOT BREAKING THE CAP UNTIL AFTER 00Z. MUCH MORE
UNSTABLE OUT THERE WITH CHADRON NAM SOUNDING SHOWING SBCAPE CLOSE
TO 3500 J/KG. THINK DAY 1 SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA IS PRETTY
GOOD...BUT DO THINK THE LARAMIE COUNTY IS GOING TO SEE SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AND HAVE TAILORED OUR FORECAST WITH LARAMIE
COUNTY EXPERIENCING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS...THEN
SPREADING EAST INTO THE PANHANDLE AFTER 00Z...AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST AS A DRY LINE.

FOR THURSDAY...UPPER LOW MOVES INTO MONTANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH 700MB WINDS INCREASING OVER WYOMING. BY 18Z GFS 700MB WINDS
INCREASE TO 25-30KTS OVER CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW A UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER
RIDGE ALONG THE COLORADO/WYOMING LINE THAT WILL INTERACT WITH SOME
RESIDUAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO CREATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. GFS
HAS PRECIP MAINLY OVER COLORADO...WHILE ECMWF SPREAD THIS MOISTURE
NORTH INTO WYOMING. DID A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS WITH CHANCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER, FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF DRY
THUNDERSTORMS OUT WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THAT HAS ME A LITTLE
WORRIED ABOUT FIRE STARTS AS AFTERNOON MIN HUMIDITIES FALL TO 10
PERCENT ACROSS CARBON...NORTH ALBANY AND WEST CONVERSE COUNTIES.
WENT AHEAD WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THURSDAY FOR CONVERSE
COUNTY AS THIS AREA LOOKS TO BE THE BEST FOR A COMBINATION OF LOW
HUMIDITIES...GUSTY WINDS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS.

GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH VERY DRY DOWNSLOPING
WINDS OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE. COULD BE LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

MODELS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE
OVERALL PATTERN...SHOWING A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH NUDGES SOUTHWARD AND THE
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN
REGION. THERE ARE STILL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS REGARDING
AVAILABLE LOW TO MIDLEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH A SERIES OF COOL FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY
NIGHT...THE LACK OF ANY DEFINED DISTURBANCES IS CREATING QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH TSTORM CHANCES INTO MONDAY. CURRENT 00Z
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO TREND DRIER...AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW
RESULTS IN A BIT MORE STABILITY THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...NUDGING
THE MONSOON MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
AND COLORADO. STARTED TO LOWER POP FOR THIS WEEKEND ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH SINCE THE ECMWF IS NOW
TRENDING DRIER AS WELL. CURRENT SOUNDINGS SHOW TOO MUCH DRY AIR
ALOFT...SUPPRESSING ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM. AFTER ANOTHER
WARM DAY ON SATURDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO LOWER BELOW NORMAL
ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S UNDER COOL EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW.

CONDITIONS BECOME A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AFTER MONDAY AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING CLOCKWISE AROUND
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND INTO WYOMING. INCREASED POP LATE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE ON THE AGGRESSIVE SIDE WITH A HIGHER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS...AT LEAST SCATTERED DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING BY WEDNESDAY.
KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DUE TO EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW AND 700MB TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO BELOW 10C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
BRIEF MVFR VIS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE HIGH PLAINS IN ADDITION TO KLAR
BEGINNING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOW
CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT
THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME TO ADD TO AREA
TAFS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN CARBON COUNTY AGAIN TODAY. A COLD
FRONT GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM CASPER TO LARAMIE WILL SEPARATE
RELATIVELY MOIST AIR EAST OF THE FRONT FROM THE REALLY DRY AIR TO
THE WEST. WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY IN THE EASTERN SECTOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES. CONDITIONS CHANGE
FOR THURSDAY THOUGH AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE EAST AGAIN AND
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES EARLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TO COMPLICATE THE CONDITIONS MORE...WE HAVE
THE POSSIBILITY OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
THAT COULD CREATE SOME FIRE STARTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FWZ 301 FOR THURSDAY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WYZ301.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB







000
FXUS65 KCYS 231512
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
912 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

EAST UPSLOPE FLOW IS CURRENTLY HOLDING THE LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND
INTO PARTS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT BY
LATE THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING A BIG IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES
OR CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS
AND STABLE MID LEVEL AIR LEFT BEHIND FORM LAST NIGHTS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIALLY INHIBIT EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE PLAINS. ONE THING OF NOTE IS THE STABLE
LAYER THAT IS IN PLACE MAY BE STRONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST...WHICH
COULD HAVE A BROADER IMPACT ON DECREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

AT THIS TIME IS APPEARS THE MAIN CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
PLAINS WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT INTO EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GIVEN A STRONGER SHEAR PROFILE AND HIGHER
CAPE VALUES. MAIN THREAT WILL BE THE LARGE HAIL BUT STRONG WINDS
AND AN AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE. WITH ANY LUCK MOST
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE PLAINS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP AND STRONGER MID LEVEL
THETAE ADVECTION KICKS IN. THIS WILL MAKE FOR THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TOWARD CHADRON AND POINTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

LOTS OF FORECAST CHALLENGES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...RANGING
FROM SEVERE CONVECTIVE WEATHER TODAY TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

CURRENTLY...THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT DID MOVE INTO THE AREA
LAST EVENING AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM
CASPER...ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE DOWN TO LARAMIE AND THEN INTO
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. THIS FRONT IS SEPARATING VERY MOIST AIR
EAST OF THE FRONT...CHEYENNE HAS A 1AM DEWPOINT OF 57F/LARAMIE
55F...FROM VERY DRY AIR OUT OVER CARBON COUNTY WHERE THE DEWPOINT
AT RAWLINS IS 29F. THIS FEATURE IS GOING TO PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN
TODAYS FORECAST WEATHER.

FOR TODAY...FRONT IS GOING TO REMAIN AT ITS CURRENT LOCATION
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE IT STARTS TO GET FORCED EAST WITH
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW. LATEST HRRR FORECAST COMPOSITE
REFLECTIVITY HAS CONVECTION INITIATING ACROSS ALBANY COUNTY AND
THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE RIGHT AROUND 20Z TODAY DURING PEAK
HEATING. NAM SOUNDING FOR CHEYENNE HAS CAPE AROUND 1300 J/KG AT
THAT TIME WITH NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. PANHANDLE STAYS CAPPED A
LITTLE LONGER...NOT BREAKING THE CAP UNTIL AFTER 00Z. MUCH MORE
UNSTABLE OUT THERE WITH CHADRON NAM SOUNDING SHOWING SBCAPE CLOSE
TO 3500 J/KG. THINK DAY 1 SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA IS PRETTY
GOOD...BUT DO THINK THE LARAMIE COUNTY IS GOING TO SEE SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AND HAVE TAILORED OUR FORECAST WITH LARAMIE
COUNTY EXPERIENCING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS...THEN
SPREADING EAST INTO THE PANHANDLE AFTER 00Z...AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST AS A DRY LINE.

FOR THURSDAY...UPPER LOW MOVES INTO MONTANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH 700MB WINDS INCREASING OVER WYOMING. BY 18Z GFS 700MB WINDS
INCREASE TO 25-30KTS OVER CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW A UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER
RIDGE ALONG THE COLORADO/WYOMING LINE THAT WILL INTERACT WITH SOME
RESIDUAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO CREATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. GFS
HAS PRECIP MAINLY OVER COLORADO...WHILE ECMWF SPREAD THIS MOISTURE
NORTH INTO WYOMING. DID A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS WITH CHANCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER, FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF DRY
THUNDERSTORMS OUT WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THAT HAS ME A LITTLE
WORRIED ABOUT FIRE STARTS AS AFTERNOON MIN HUMIDITIES FALL TO 10
PERCENT ACROSS CARBON...NORTH ALBANY AND WEST CONVERSE COUNTIES.
WENT AHEAD WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THURSDAY FOR CONVERSE
COUNTY AS THIS AREA LOOKS TO BE THE BEST FOR A COMBINATION OF LOW
HUMIDITIES...GUSTY WINDS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS.

GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH VERY DRY DOWNSLOPING
WINDS OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE. COULD BE LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

MODELS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE
OVERALL PATTERN...SHOWING A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH NUDGES SOUTHWARD AND THE
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN
REGION. THERE ARE STILL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS REGARDING
AVAILABLE LOW TO MIDLEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH A SERIES OF COOL FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY
NIGHT...THE LACK OF ANY DEFINED DISTURBANCES IS CREATING QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH TSTORM CHANCES INTO MONDAY. CURRENT 00Z
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO TREND DRIER...AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW
RESULTS IN A BIT MORE STABILITY THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...NUDGING
THE MONSOON MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
AND COLORADO. STARTED TO LOWER POP FOR THIS WEEKEND ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH SINCE THE ECMWF IS NOW
TRENDING DRIER AS WELL. CURRENT SOUNDINGS SHOW TOO MUCH DRY AIR
ALOFT...SUPPRESSING ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM. AFTER ANOTHER
WARM DAY ON SATURDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO LOWER BELOW NORMAL
ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S UNDER COOL EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW.

CONDITIONS BECOME A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AFTER MONDAY AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING CLOCKWISE AROUND
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND INTO WYOMING. INCREASED POP LATE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE ON THE AGGRESSIVE SIDE WITH A HIGHER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS...AT LEAST SCATTERED DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING BY WEDNESDAY.
KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DUE TO EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW AND 700MB TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO BELOW 10C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
BRIEF MVFR VIS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE HIGH PLAINS IN ADDITION TO KLAR
BEGINNING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOW
CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT
THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME TO ADD TO AREA
TAFS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN CARBON COUNTY AGAIN TODAY. A COLD
FRONT GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM CASPER TO LARAMIE WILL SEPARATE
RELATIVELY MOIST AIR EAST OF THE FRONT FROM THE REALLY DRY AIR TO
THE WEST. WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY IN THE EASTERN SECTOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES. CONDITIONS CHANGE
FOR THURSDAY THOUGH AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE EAST AGAIN AND
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES EARLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TO COMPLICATE THE CONDITIONS MORE...WE HAVE
THE POSSIBILITY OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
THAT COULD CREATE SOME FIRE STARTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FWZ 301 FOR THURSDAY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WYZ301.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB







000
FXUS65 KCYS 231512
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
912 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

EAST UPSLOPE FLOW IS CURRENTLY HOLDING THE LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND
INTO PARTS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT BY
LATE THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING A BIG IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES
OR CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS
AND STABLE MID LEVEL AIR LEFT BEHIND FORM LAST NIGHTS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIALLY INHIBIT EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE PLAINS. ONE THING OF NOTE IS THE STABLE
LAYER THAT IS IN PLACE MAY BE STRONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST...WHICH
COULD HAVE A BROADER IMPACT ON DECREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

AT THIS TIME IS APPEARS THE MAIN CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
PLAINS WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT INTO EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GIVEN A STRONGER SHEAR PROFILE AND HIGHER
CAPE VALUES. MAIN THREAT WILL BE THE LARGE HAIL BUT STRONG WINDS
AND AN AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE. WITH ANY LUCK MOST
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE PLAINS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP AND STRONGER MID LEVEL
THETAE ADVECTION KICKS IN. THIS WILL MAKE FOR THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TOWARD CHADRON AND POINTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

LOTS OF FORECAST CHALLENGES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...RANGING
FROM SEVERE CONVECTIVE WEATHER TODAY TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

CURRENTLY...THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT DID MOVE INTO THE AREA
LAST EVENING AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM
CASPER...ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE DOWN TO LARAMIE AND THEN INTO
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. THIS FRONT IS SEPARATING VERY MOIST AIR
EAST OF THE FRONT...CHEYENNE HAS A 1AM DEWPOINT OF 57F/LARAMIE
55F...FROM VERY DRY AIR OUT OVER CARBON COUNTY WHERE THE DEWPOINT
AT RAWLINS IS 29F. THIS FEATURE IS GOING TO PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN
TODAYS FORECAST WEATHER.

FOR TODAY...FRONT IS GOING TO REMAIN AT ITS CURRENT LOCATION
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE IT STARTS TO GET FORCED EAST WITH
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW. LATEST HRRR FORECAST COMPOSITE
REFLECTIVITY HAS CONVECTION INITIATING ACROSS ALBANY COUNTY AND
THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE RIGHT AROUND 20Z TODAY DURING PEAK
HEATING. NAM SOUNDING FOR CHEYENNE HAS CAPE AROUND 1300 J/KG AT
THAT TIME WITH NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. PANHANDLE STAYS CAPPED A
LITTLE LONGER...NOT BREAKING THE CAP UNTIL AFTER 00Z. MUCH MORE
UNSTABLE OUT THERE WITH CHADRON NAM SOUNDING SHOWING SBCAPE CLOSE
TO 3500 J/KG. THINK DAY 1 SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA IS PRETTY
GOOD...BUT DO THINK THE LARAMIE COUNTY IS GOING TO SEE SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AND HAVE TAILORED OUR FORECAST WITH LARAMIE
COUNTY EXPERIENCING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS...THEN
SPREADING EAST INTO THE PANHANDLE AFTER 00Z...AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST AS A DRY LINE.

FOR THURSDAY...UPPER LOW MOVES INTO MONTANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH 700MB WINDS INCREASING OVER WYOMING. BY 18Z GFS 700MB WINDS
INCREASE TO 25-30KTS OVER CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW A UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER
RIDGE ALONG THE COLORADO/WYOMING LINE THAT WILL INTERACT WITH SOME
RESIDUAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO CREATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. GFS
HAS PRECIP MAINLY OVER COLORADO...WHILE ECMWF SPREAD THIS MOISTURE
NORTH INTO WYOMING. DID A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS WITH CHANCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER, FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF DRY
THUNDERSTORMS OUT WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THAT HAS ME A LITTLE
WORRIED ABOUT FIRE STARTS AS AFTERNOON MIN HUMIDITIES FALL TO 10
PERCENT ACROSS CARBON...NORTH ALBANY AND WEST CONVERSE COUNTIES.
WENT AHEAD WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THURSDAY FOR CONVERSE
COUNTY AS THIS AREA LOOKS TO BE THE BEST FOR A COMBINATION OF LOW
HUMIDITIES...GUSTY WINDS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS.

GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH VERY DRY DOWNSLOPING
WINDS OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE. COULD BE LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

MODELS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE
OVERALL PATTERN...SHOWING A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH NUDGES SOUTHWARD AND THE
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN
REGION. THERE ARE STILL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS REGARDING
AVAILABLE LOW TO MIDLEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH A SERIES OF COOL FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY
NIGHT...THE LACK OF ANY DEFINED DISTURBANCES IS CREATING QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH TSTORM CHANCES INTO MONDAY. CURRENT 00Z
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO TREND DRIER...AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW
RESULTS IN A BIT MORE STABILITY THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...NUDGING
THE MONSOON MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
AND COLORADO. STARTED TO LOWER POP FOR THIS WEEKEND ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH SINCE THE ECMWF IS NOW
TRENDING DRIER AS WELL. CURRENT SOUNDINGS SHOW TOO MUCH DRY AIR
ALOFT...SUPPRESSING ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM. AFTER ANOTHER
WARM DAY ON SATURDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO LOWER BELOW NORMAL
ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S UNDER COOL EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW.

CONDITIONS BECOME A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AFTER MONDAY AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING CLOCKWISE AROUND
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND INTO WYOMING. INCREASED POP LATE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE ON THE AGGRESSIVE SIDE WITH A HIGHER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS...AT LEAST SCATTERED DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING BY WEDNESDAY.
KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DUE TO EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW AND 700MB TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO BELOW 10C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
BRIEF MVFR VIS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE HIGH PLAINS IN ADDITION TO KLAR
BEGINNING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOW
CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT
THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME TO ADD TO AREA
TAFS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN CARBON COUNTY AGAIN TODAY. A COLD
FRONT GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM CASPER TO LARAMIE WILL SEPARATE
RELATIVELY MOIST AIR EAST OF THE FRONT FROM THE REALLY DRY AIR TO
THE WEST. WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY IN THE EASTERN SECTOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES. CONDITIONS CHANGE
FOR THURSDAY THOUGH AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE EAST AGAIN AND
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES EARLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TO COMPLICATE THE CONDITIONS MORE...WE HAVE
THE POSSIBILITY OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
THAT COULD CREATE SOME FIRE STARTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FWZ 301 FOR THURSDAY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WYZ301.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB







000
FXUS63 KUNR 231127
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
527 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LEE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL MT INTO
SOUTHEAST WY. WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES NOTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST MT
INTO CENTRAL SD. CLUSTER OF SEVERE CONVECTION HEADING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...SPURRED
ON BY WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEAST WY PER WATER VAPOUR LOOP AND
30KT LOW LEVEL JET. BEHIND IT...UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER MT/WY
WITH UPSTREAM WAVES OVER ID/WESTERN MT. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS
ORGANIZED TSRA EXITING CWA BY 12Z...BUT COULD BE A FEW LINGERING
CELLS EARLY.

TODAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THERMAL
RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING. LEE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST A BIT WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL WY IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE
ROTATING AROUND RIDGE INTO MT. SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST
COMBINED WITH WY LOW RESULTS IN SOMEWHAT TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
STRENGTHENING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW UP TO 25KTS. AHEAD OF LEE
TROUGH...2-4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCIN
WEAKENING...ESPECIALLY AFTER 21Z. DIRECT UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES HARD TO DEPICT IN GUIDANCE OR TO SEE UPSTREAM ON WATER
VAPOUR...BUT A COUPLE OF WEAK 700MB SHORTWAVES FORECAST BY MODELS
TO SHIFT INTO EASTERN WY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE
LAST NUDGE TO ALLOW TSRA TO ERUPT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR 15-20M/S WITH
RATHER SLOW RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELL MOVEMENT...IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
0-6KM MEAN WIND 15-20KTS. WITH SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVEMENT THAN
GUIDANCE SHOWED YESTERDAY...IT APPEARS FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL NOT
AS CLEARLY DEFINED...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS DO REACH 150
PERCENT OF NORMAL. LOCAL FLASH FLOOD COMPOSITE PARAMETER HAS
BACKED OFF NOTICEABLY. THUS WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WATER HEADLINES
AT THIS POINT AND PASS ON CONCERN TO DAY SHIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR GUIDANCE IN THE WEST AND NEAR BIAS CORRECTED VALUES IN THE
EAST.

TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES OVER EASTERN MT WITH WARM FRONT
ACROSS NORTHERN SD. ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AS 30-40KT LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS/INTERSECTS WARM FRONT...TRANSLATING BEST
850-700MB THETA-E ADVECTION EAST OF AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP GIVEN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW.

THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE FLOPS OVER IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE/UPPER LOW
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN BC/AB. LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MT WILL MOVE
INTO CENTRAL SD. AHEAD OF IT...STRONG THERMAL RIDGE PEAKS OVER CWA
WITH DRY LINE SURGING INTO SOUTHWEST SD FROM WY. TRAILING COOL FRONT
BEHIND LOW WILL DROP INTO CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. 1-2KJ/KG POST
FRONTAL MLCAPE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF CWA. 2-3KJ/KG
MLCAPE IN WARM SECTOR LIKELY...BUT MLCIN WILL BE MUCH STRONGER
THERE. 0-6KM SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS POST FRONTAL IN THE
NORTH...WITH MARGINAL VALUES IN THE SOUTH...BUT DEEP MIXING MAY
PROMOTE SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER
SOUTHWEST SD. EXPECT SEVERE STORMS LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
FAR NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE POST FRONTAL
AND HAVE ADJUSTED NEAR/ABOVE GUIDANCE SOUTH OF DRY LINE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...COOL FRONT SURGES THROUGH CWA WITH BREEZY SPOTS
BEHIND IT AND CONVECTION MOVING EAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROF SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF SLIDES EAST...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE
WEST...BRINGING PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE JUST EAST OF
KRAP THROUGH SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH 15Z.
MVFR VIS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THESE
STORMS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL RE-DEVELOP OVER
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15






000
FXUS63 KUNR 231127
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
527 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LEE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL MT INTO
SOUTHEAST WY. WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES NOTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST MT
INTO CENTRAL SD. CLUSTER OF SEVERE CONVECTION HEADING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...SPURRED
ON BY WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEAST WY PER WATER VAPOUR LOOP AND
30KT LOW LEVEL JET. BEHIND IT...UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER MT/WY
WITH UPSTREAM WAVES OVER ID/WESTERN MT. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS
ORGANIZED TSRA EXITING CWA BY 12Z...BUT COULD BE A FEW LINGERING
CELLS EARLY.

TODAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THERMAL
RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING. LEE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST A BIT WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL WY IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE
ROTATING AROUND RIDGE INTO MT. SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST
COMBINED WITH WY LOW RESULTS IN SOMEWHAT TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
STRENGTHENING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW UP TO 25KTS. AHEAD OF LEE
TROUGH...2-4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCIN
WEAKENING...ESPECIALLY AFTER 21Z. DIRECT UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES HARD TO DEPICT IN GUIDANCE OR TO SEE UPSTREAM ON WATER
VAPOUR...BUT A COUPLE OF WEAK 700MB SHORTWAVES FORECAST BY MODELS
TO SHIFT INTO EASTERN WY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE
LAST NUDGE TO ALLOW TSRA TO ERUPT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR 15-20M/S WITH
RATHER SLOW RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELL MOVEMENT...IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
0-6KM MEAN WIND 15-20KTS. WITH SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVEMENT THAN
GUIDANCE SHOWED YESTERDAY...IT APPEARS FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL NOT
AS CLEARLY DEFINED...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS DO REACH 150
PERCENT OF NORMAL. LOCAL FLASH FLOOD COMPOSITE PARAMETER HAS
BACKED OFF NOTICEABLY. THUS WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WATER HEADLINES
AT THIS POINT AND PASS ON CONCERN TO DAY SHIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR GUIDANCE IN THE WEST AND NEAR BIAS CORRECTED VALUES IN THE
EAST.

TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES OVER EASTERN MT WITH WARM FRONT
ACROSS NORTHERN SD. ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AS 30-40KT LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS/INTERSECTS WARM FRONT...TRANSLATING BEST
850-700MB THETA-E ADVECTION EAST OF AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP GIVEN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW.

THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE FLOPS OVER IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE/UPPER LOW
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN BC/AB. LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MT WILL MOVE
INTO CENTRAL SD. AHEAD OF IT...STRONG THERMAL RIDGE PEAKS OVER CWA
WITH DRY LINE SURGING INTO SOUTHWEST SD FROM WY. TRAILING COOL FRONT
BEHIND LOW WILL DROP INTO CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. 1-2KJ/KG POST
FRONTAL MLCAPE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF CWA. 2-3KJ/KG
MLCAPE IN WARM SECTOR LIKELY...BUT MLCIN WILL BE MUCH STRONGER
THERE. 0-6KM SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS POST FRONTAL IN THE
NORTH...WITH MARGINAL VALUES IN THE SOUTH...BUT DEEP MIXING MAY
PROMOTE SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER
SOUTHWEST SD. EXPECT SEVERE STORMS LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
FAR NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE POST FRONTAL
AND HAVE ADJUSTED NEAR/ABOVE GUIDANCE SOUTH OF DRY LINE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...COOL FRONT SURGES THROUGH CWA WITH BREEZY SPOTS
BEHIND IT AND CONVECTION MOVING EAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROF SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF SLIDES EAST...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE
WEST...BRINGING PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE JUST EAST OF
KRAP THROUGH SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH 15Z.
MVFR VIS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THESE
STORMS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL RE-DEVELOP OVER
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15







000
FXUS65 KRIW 230932
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
332 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

WV IMAGERY SHOWING ROBUST UPR RIDGE...SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO UPR
TROFS... CENTERED OVER CO AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WITH
THE DIRTY PORTION OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IN MT AND AROUND THE
HORN INTO SD AND NE...LEAVING THE FA DRY.

THRU THE FCST PERIOD...THE THE MEAN POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE
UPR HIGH WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH....ONLY TRENDING SWD FROM CO INTO THE
NM/AZ REGION. HOWEVER...THE N/S EXTENT OF THE HIGH WILL GET SQUASHED
BY DAY 3 AS THE WRN COASTAL TROF PUSHES ACROSS SRN CA...DECREASING
HEIGHTS OVR WY ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES...GIVING A BRIEF RESPITE TO
AN OTHERWISE VERY HOT FCST THRU THURSDAY. LEADING EDGE OF WEAK SW
EMBEDDED IN THE PERIPHERY OF UPR HIGH OVR AZ TONIGHT WILL ROTATE
CLOCKWISE ACROSS THE FA BY THIS EVENING...GIVING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH LITTLE RAIN...BUT A LITTLE DRY LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE...OVR MAINLY THE SRN AND SERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...IF A STORM CAN GO AT ALL WITH H7
TEMPS WARMING TO BETWEEN 17 AND 19 DEG C. OTHERWISE...A LITTLE
STRONGER SW WILL SWING THRU THE NWRN FA THU MORNING AROUND THE NW
CONUS TROF OFFERING SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY EVEN IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH INCREASED LAPSED RATES UNDER A COOLING MID/UPR
LVL. BY AFTERNOON THU...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH SOME
MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS S AND ERN WY...OFFERING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION...BUT MOSTLY ONLY THE FAR SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WILL HAVE ANY CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...NEAR DEVELOPING LEE SIDE SFC
LOW AND FRONT. FRIDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO
DAYS...AND DRIER AND MORE STABLE TOO...WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR
ACTIVE CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY NEAR THE WY/CO BORDER. MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND IN ADDITION TO THE ISOLATED THUNDER MENTIONED
ABOVE...WILL BE THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SRN AND ERN ZONES. BEGINNING TODAY AND LASTING THRU FRI...HOT
DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 90S WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RH VALUES RANGING
FROM THE UPR SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS AND INCREASING SW WINDS
ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE RECENTLY SEEN DRY FUEL STATUS GO CRITICAL.
WHILE TODAY WILL BE A MARGINAL RED FLAG DAY AS FAR AS WINDS AND RH
GO...THE ADDITION OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDER RAISE ENOUGH CONCERNS
TO START THE WARNING TODAY. THEN BY THURSDAY...BOTH THE SURFACE
PRESSURE FIELDS ALONG WITH INCREASED UPR FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THE
PASSING OF THE UPR WAVE AND DEVELOPING LEE LOW WILL BOTH INCREASE
THE LOCAL P GRAD AND BRING WIND DOWN FROM ALOFT INTO A WINDY
CATEGORY OVR THE CENTRAL...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FA. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FRIDAY EVEN WITH COOLER HIGH TEMPS
AROUND. HAVE EXTENDED THE RFW ACCORDINGLY SO THAT THE WARNING WILL
NOW GO FROM NOON TODAY...THRU FRI EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...HAVE ADDED
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONE 276 (CODY FOOTHILLS) THAT WILL START
THURSDAY AT NOON AND ALSO RUN THRU FRI EVENING.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UPPER LOW DIVES SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND CARVES
OUT LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. BY MONDAY.  THIS WILL
ALLOW UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES TO PHASE WITH
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...SETTING UP A BLOCKING PATTERN OVER NORTH
AMERICA WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  UPPER HIGH
OVER THE SW U.S. WILL RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY MON-WED.  BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE THIS UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER AZ BY 00Z
THURSDAY WITH THE ECEM SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST.  THIS WESTWARD SHIFT
WILL BRING A MORE UNSETTLED NW FLOW ACROSS WYOMING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY...VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH
STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE DIVIDE...A
LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.  BREEZY N-NW WINDS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS SW WYOMING THOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS FRIDAY...HOWEVER FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TO EXTREME.

SUNDAY...CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH HEAT SFC LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN.  THIS WILL BRING E-NE FLOW
AND LIGHTER WIND ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING ALONG WITH A BIT HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...WHILE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEYS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE "RING OF FIRE" BEGINS TO DEVELOP
AROUND FOUR CORNERS UPPER HIGH MONDAY WITH SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND PERIPHERY OF HIGH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
AND WESTWARD ACROSS WYOMING.  THIS WILL BRING AN INITIAL SURGE OF
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY SPREADING EAST OF THE DIVIDE LATE.  NW FLOW ALOFT WITH
LIGHT UPSLOPE E-NE SFC FLOW WILL SHIFT THE BEST MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ALONG AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A
SET UP THAT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.


&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

CONVECTION WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO DEVELOP TODAY...WITH A MAINLY
STABLE ATMOSPHERE DUE TO WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS...AND MEAGER MOISTURE.
HAVING SAID THAT THERE COULD BE SOME VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
THE MOUNTAINS THAT TRY TO FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CHANCES ARE TOO REMOTE TO MENTION AT ANY TAF SITE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING...BECOMING BREEZY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST/WEST OVER THE WEST AND FROM THE WIND CORRIDOR FROM
KRKS-KCPR. WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY IN JACKSON HOLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WYOMING FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH IS IN EFFECT  FOR THE CODY FOOTHILLS FROM NOON ON THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS WITH CRITICALLY DRY FUELS BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON...AS HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S COMBINE WITH LOW
RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPR SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS AND
INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED THUNDER TODAY ALSO REINFORCES THIS DECISION. THURSDAY
WILL PERHAPS SEE THE MOST EXTREME BEHAVIOR AS A STRONGLY INCREASED
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINES WITH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO
GIVE WESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL GUST BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER. HAVE ALSO
ADDED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONE 276 (CODY FOOTHILLS) THAT WILL
START THURSDAY AT NOON AND ALSO RUN THRU FRIDAY EVENING FOR SIMILAR
REASONING.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY
WYZ279-280-283-285-287-300.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING WYZ276.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN







000
FXUS65 KRIW 230932
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
332 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

WV IMAGERY SHOWING ROBUST UPR RIDGE...SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO UPR
TROFS... CENTERED OVER CO AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WITH
THE DIRTY PORTION OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IN MT AND AROUND THE
HORN INTO SD AND NE...LEAVING THE FA DRY.

THRU THE FCST PERIOD...THE THE MEAN POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE
UPR HIGH WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH....ONLY TRENDING SWD FROM CO INTO THE
NM/AZ REGION. HOWEVER...THE N/S EXTENT OF THE HIGH WILL GET SQUASHED
BY DAY 3 AS THE WRN COASTAL TROF PUSHES ACROSS SRN CA...DECREASING
HEIGHTS OVR WY ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES...GIVING A BRIEF RESPITE TO
AN OTHERWISE VERY HOT FCST THRU THURSDAY. LEADING EDGE OF WEAK SW
EMBEDDED IN THE PERIPHERY OF UPR HIGH OVR AZ TONIGHT WILL ROTATE
CLOCKWISE ACROSS THE FA BY THIS EVENING...GIVING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH LITTLE RAIN...BUT A LITTLE DRY LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE...OVR MAINLY THE SRN AND SERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...IF A STORM CAN GO AT ALL WITH H7
TEMPS WARMING TO BETWEEN 17 AND 19 DEG C. OTHERWISE...A LITTLE
STRONGER SW WILL SWING THRU THE NWRN FA THU MORNING AROUND THE NW
CONUS TROF OFFERING SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY EVEN IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH INCREASED LAPSED RATES UNDER A COOLING MID/UPR
LVL. BY AFTERNOON THU...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH SOME
MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS S AND ERN WY...OFFERING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION...BUT MOSTLY ONLY THE FAR SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WILL HAVE ANY CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...NEAR DEVELOPING LEE SIDE SFC
LOW AND FRONT. FRIDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO
DAYS...AND DRIER AND MORE STABLE TOO...WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR
ACTIVE CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY NEAR THE WY/CO BORDER. MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND IN ADDITION TO THE ISOLATED THUNDER MENTIONED
ABOVE...WILL BE THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SRN AND ERN ZONES. BEGINNING TODAY AND LASTING THRU FRI...HOT
DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 90S WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RH VALUES RANGING
FROM THE UPR SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS AND INCREASING SW WINDS
ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE RECENTLY SEEN DRY FUEL STATUS GO CRITICAL.
WHILE TODAY WILL BE A MARGINAL RED FLAG DAY AS FAR AS WINDS AND RH
GO...THE ADDITION OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDER RAISE ENOUGH CONCERNS
TO START THE WARNING TODAY. THEN BY THURSDAY...BOTH THE SURFACE
PRESSURE FIELDS ALONG WITH INCREASED UPR FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THE
PASSING OF THE UPR WAVE AND DEVELOPING LEE LOW WILL BOTH INCREASE
THE LOCAL P GRAD AND BRING WIND DOWN FROM ALOFT INTO A WINDY
CATEGORY OVR THE CENTRAL...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FA. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FRIDAY EVEN WITH COOLER HIGH TEMPS
AROUND. HAVE EXTENDED THE RFW ACCORDINGLY SO THAT THE WARNING WILL
NOW GO FROM NOON TODAY...THRU FRI EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...HAVE ADDED
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONE 276 (CODY FOOTHILLS) THAT WILL START
THURSDAY AT NOON AND ALSO RUN THRU FRI EVENING.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UPPER LOW DIVES SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND CARVES
OUT LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. BY MONDAY.  THIS WILL
ALLOW UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES TO PHASE WITH
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...SETTING UP A BLOCKING PATTERN OVER NORTH
AMERICA WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  UPPER HIGH
OVER THE SW U.S. WILL RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY MON-WED.  BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE THIS UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER AZ BY 00Z
THURSDAY WITH THE ECEM SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST.  THIS WESTWARD SHIFT
WILL BRING A MORE UNSETTLED NW FLOW ACROSS WYOMING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY...VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH
STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE DIVIDE...A
LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.  BREEZY N-NW WINDS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS SW WYOMING THOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS FRIDAY...HOWEVER FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TO EXTREME.

SUNDAY...CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH HEAT SFC LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN.  THIS WILL BRING E-NE FLOW
AND LIGHTER WIND ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING ALONG WITH A BIT HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...WHILE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEYS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE "RING OF FIRE" BEGINS TO DEVELOP
AROUND FOUR CORNERS UPPER HIGH MONDAY WITH SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND PERIPHERY OF HIGH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
AND WESTWARD ACROSS WYOMING.  THIS WILL BRING AN INITIAL SURGE OF
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY SPREADING EAST OF THE DIVIDE LATE.  NW FLOW ALOFT WITH
LIGHT UPSLOPE E-NE SFC FLOW WILL SHIFT THE BEST MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ALONG AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A
SET UP THAT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.


&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

CONVECTION WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO DEVELOP TODAY...WITH A MAINLY
STABLE ATMOSPHERE DUE TO WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS...AND MEAGER MOISTURE.
HAVING SAID THAT THERE COULD BE SOME VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
THE MOUNTAINS THAT TRY TO FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CHANCES ARE TOO REMOTE TO MENTION AT ANY TAF SITE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING...BECOMING BREEZY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST/WEST OVER THE WEST AND FROM THE WIND CORRIDOR FROM
KRKS-KCPR. WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY IN JACKSON HOLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WYOMING FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH IS IN EFFECT  FOR THE CODY FOOTHILLS FROM NOON ON THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS WITH CRITICALLY DRY FUELS BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON...AS HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S COMBINE WITH LOW
RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPR SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS AND
INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED THUNDER TODAY ALSO REINFORCES THIS DECISION. THURSDAY
WILL PERHAPS SEE THE MOST EXTREME BEHAVIOR AS A STRONGLY INCREASED
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINES WITH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO
GIVE WESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL GUST BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER. HAVE ALSO
ADDED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONE 276 (CODY FOOTHILLS) THAT WILL
START THURSDAY AT NOON AND ALSO RUN THRU FRIDAY EVENING FOR SIMILAR
REASONING.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY
WYZ279-280-283-285-287-300.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING WYZ276.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN







000
FXUS65 KRIW 230932
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
332 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

WV IMAGERY SHOWING ROBUST UPR RIDGE...SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO UPR
TROFS... CENTERED OVER CO AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WITH
THE DIRTY PORTION OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IN MT AND AROUND THE
HORN INTO SD AND NE...LEAVING THE FA DRY.

THRU THE FCST PERIOD...THE THE MEAN POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE
UPR HIGH WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH....ONLY TRENDING SWD FROM CO INTO THE
NM/AZ REGION. HOWEVER...THE N/S EXTENT OF THE HIGH WILL GET SQUASHED
BY DAY 3 AS THE WRN COASTAL TROF PUSHES ACROSS SRN CA...DECREASING
HEIGHTS OVR WY ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES...GIVING A BRIEF RESPITE TO
AN OTHERWISE VERY HOT FCST THRU THURSDAY. LEADING EDGE OF WEAK SW
EMBEDDED IN THE PERIPHERY OF UPR HIGH OVR AZ TONIGHT WILL ROTATE
CLOCKWISE ACROSS THE FA BY THIS EVENING...GIVING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH LITTLE RAIN...BUT A LITTLE DRY LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE...OVR MAINLY THE SRN AND SERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...IF A STORM CAN GO AT ALL WITH H7
TEMPS WARMING TO BETWEEN 17 AND 19 DEG C. OTHERWISE...A LITTLE
STRONGER SW WILL SWING THRU THE NWRN FA THU MORNING AROUND THE NW
CONUS TROF OFFERING SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY EVEN IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH INCREASED LAPSED RATES UNDER A COOLING MID/UPR
LVL. BY AFTERNOON THU...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH SOME
MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS S AND ERN WY...OFFERING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION...BUT MOSTLY ONLY THE FAR SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WILL HAVE ANY CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...NEAR DEVELOPING LEE SIDE SFC
LOW AND FRONT. FRIDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO
DAYS...AND DRIER AND MORE STABLE TOO...WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR
ACTIVE CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY NEAR THE WY/CO BORDER. MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND IN ADDITION TO THE ISOLATED THUNDER MENTIONED
ABOVE...WILL BE THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SRN AND ERN ZONES. BEGINNING TODAY AND LASTING THRU FRI...HOT
DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 90S WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RH VALUES RANGING
FROM THE UPR SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS AND INCREASING SW WINDS
ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE RECENTLY SEEN DRY FUEL STATUS GO CRITICAL.
WHILE TODAY WILL BE A MARGINAL RED FLAG DAY AS FAR AS WINDS AND RH
GO...THE ADDITION OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDER RAISE ENOUGH CONCERNS
TO START THE WARNING TODAY. THEN BY THURSDAY...BOTH THE SURFACE
PRESSURE FIELDS ALONG WITH INCREASED UPR FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THE
PASSING OF THE UPR WAVE AND DEVELOPING LEE LOW WILL BOTH INCREASE
THE LOCAL P GRAD AND BRING WIND DOWN FROM ALOFT INTO A WINDY
CATEGORY OVR THE CENTRAL...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FA. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FRIDAY EVEN WITH COOLER HIGH TEMPS
AROUND. HAVE EXTENDED THE RFW ACCORDINGLY SO THAT THE WARNING WILL
NOW GO FROM NOON TODAY...THRU FRI EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...HAVE ADDED
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONE 276 (CODY FOOTHILLS) THAT WILL START
THURSDAY AT NOON AND ALSO RUN THRU FRI EVENING.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UPPER LOW DIVES SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND CARVES
OUT LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. BY MONDAY.  THIS WILL
ALLOW UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES TO PHASE WITH
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...SETTING UP A BLOCKING PATTERN OVER NORTH
AMERICA WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  UPPER HIGH
OVER THE SW U.S. WILL RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY MON-WED.  BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE THIS UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER AZ BY 00Z
THURSDAY WITH THE ECEM SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST.  THIS WESTWARD SHIFT
WILL BRING A MORE UNSETTLED NW FLOW ACROSS WYOMING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY...VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH
STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE DIVIDE...A
LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.  BREEZY N-NW WINDS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS SW WYOMING THOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS FRIDAY...HOWEVER FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TO EXTREME.

SUNDAY...CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH HEAT SFC LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN.  THIS WILL BRING E-NE FLOW
AND LIGHTER WIND ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING ALONG WITH A BIT HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...WHILE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEYS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE "RING OF FIRE" BEGINS TO DEVELOP
AROUND FOUR CORNERS UPPER HIGH MONDAY WITH SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND PERIPHERY OF HIGH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
AND WESTWARD ACROSS WYOMING.  THIS WILL BRING AN INITIAL SURGE OF
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY SPREADING EAST OF THE DIVIDE LATE.  NW FLOW ALOFT WITH
LIGHT UPSLOPE E-NE SFC FLOW WILL SHIFT THE BEST MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ALONG AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A
SET UP THAT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.


&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

CONVECTION WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO DEVELOP TODAY...WITH A MAINLY
STABLE ATMOSPHERE DUE TO WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS...AND MEAGER MOISTURE.
HAVING SAID THAT THERE COULD BE SOME VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
THE MOUNTAINS THAT TRY TO FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CHANCES ARE TOO REMOTE TO MENTION AT ANY TAF SITE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING...BECOMING BREEZY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST/WEST OVER THE WEST AND FROM THE WIND CORRIDOR FROM
KRKS-KCPR. WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY IN JACKSON HOLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WYOMING FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH IS IN EFFECT  FOR THE CODY FOOTHILLS FROM NOON ON THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS WITH CRITICALLY DRY FUELS BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON...AS HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S COMBINE WITH LOW
RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPR SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS AND
INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED THUNDER TODAY ALSO REINFORCES THIS DECISION. THURSDAY
WILL PERHAPS SEE THE MOST EXTREME BEHAVIOR AS A STRONGLY INCREASED
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINES WITH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO
GIVE WESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL GUST BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER. HAVE ALSO
ADDED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONE 276 (CODY FOOTHILLS) THAT WILL
START THURSDAY AT NOON AND ALSO RUN THRU FRIDAY EVENING FOR SIMILAR
REASONING.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY
WYZ279-280-283-285-287-300.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING WYZ276.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN







000
FXUS65 KRIW 230932
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
332 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

WV IMAGERY SHOWING ROBUST UPR RIDGE...SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO UPR
TROFS... CENTERED OVER CO AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WITH
THE DIRTY PORTION OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IN MT AND AROUND THE
HORN INTO SD AND NE...LEAVING THE FA DRY.

THRU THE FCST PERIOD...THE THE MEAN POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE
UPR HIGH WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH....ONLY TRENDING SWD FROM CO INTO THE
NM/AZ REGION. HOWEVER...THE N/S EXTENT OF THE HIGH WILL GET SQUASHED
BY DAY 3 AS THE WRN COASTAL TROF PUSHES ACROSS SRN CA...DECREASING
HEIGHTS OVR WY ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES...GIVING A BRIEF RESPITE TO
AN OTHERWISE VERY HOT FCST THRU THURSDAY. LEADING EDGE OF WEAK SW
EMBEDDED IN THE PERIPHERY OF UPR HIGH OVR AZ TONIGHT WILL ROTATE
CLOCKWISE ACROSS THE FA BY THIS EVENING...GIVING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH LITTLE RAIN...BUT A LITTLE DRY LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE...OVR MAINLY THE SRN AND SERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...IF A STORM CAN GO AT ALL WITH H7
TEMPS WARMING TO BETWEEN 17 AND 19 DEG C. OTHERWISE...A LITTLE
STRONGER SW WILL SWING THRU THE NWRN FA THU MORNING AROUND THE NW
CONUS TROF OFFERING SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY EVEN IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH INCREASED LAPSED RATES UNDER A COOLING MID/UPR
LVL. BY AFTERNOON THU...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH SOME
MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS S AND ERN WY...OFFERING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION...BUT MOSTLY ONLY THE FAR SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WILL HAVE ANY CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...NEAR DEVELOPING LEE SIDE SFC
LOW AND FRONT. FRIDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO
DAYS...AND DRIER AND MORE STABLE TOO...WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR
ACTIVE CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY NEAR THE WY/CO BORDER. MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND IN ADDITION TO THE ISOLATED THUNDER MENTIONED
ABOVE...WILL BE THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SRN AND ERN ZONES. BEGINNING TODAY AND LASTING THRU FRI...HOT
DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 90S WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RH VALUES RANGING
FROM THE UPR SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS AND INCREASING SW WINDS
ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE RECENTLY SEEN DRY FUEL STATUS GO CRITICAL.
WHILE TODAY WILL BE A MARGINAL RED FLAG DAY AS FAR AS WINDS AND RH
GO...THE ADDITION OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDER RAISE ENOUGH CONCERNS
TO START THE WARNING TODAY. THEN BY THURSDAY...BOTH THE SURFACE
PRESSURE FIELDS ALONG WITH INCREASED UPR FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THE
PASSING OF THE UPR WAVE AND DEVELOPING LEE LOW WILL BOTH INCREASE
THE LOCAL P GRAD AND BRING WIND DOWN FROM ALOFT INTO A WINDY
CATEGORY OVR THE CENTRAL...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FA. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FRIDAY EVEN WITH COOLER HIGH TEMPS
AROUND. HAVE EXTENDED THE RFW ACCORDINGLY SO THAT THE WARNING WILL
NOW GO FROM NOON TODAY...THRU FRI EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...HAVE ADDED
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONE 276 (CODY FOOTHILLS) THAT WILL START
THURSDAY AT NOON AND ALSO RUN THRU FRI EVENING.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UPPER LOW DIVES SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND CARVES
OUT LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. BY MONDAY.  THIS WILL
ALLOW UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES TO PHASE WITH
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...SETTING UP A BLOCKING PATTERN OVER NORTH
AMERICA WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  UPPER HIGH
OVER THE SW U.S. WILL RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY MON-WED.  BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE THIS UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER AZ BY 00Z
THURSDAY WITH THE ECEM SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST.  THIS WESTWARD SHIFT
WILL BRING A MORE UNSETTLED NW FLOW ACROSS WYOMING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY...VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH
STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE DIVIDE...A
LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.  BREEZY N-NW WINDS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS SW WYOMING THOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS FRIDAY...HOWEVER FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TO EXTREME.

SUNDAY...CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH HEAT SFC LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN.  THIS WILL BRING E-NE FLOW
AND LIGHTER WIND ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING ALONG WITH A BIT HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...WHILE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEYS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE "RING OF FIRE" BEGINS TO DEVELOP
AROUND FOUR CORNERS UPPER HIGH MONDAY WITH SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND PERIPHERY OF HIGH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
AND WESTWARD ACROSS WYOMING.  THIS WILL BRING AN INITIAL SURGE OF
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY SPREADING EAST OF THE DIVIDE LATE.  NW FLOW ALOFT WITH
LIGHT UPSLOPE E-NE SFC FLOW WILL SHIFT THE BEST MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ALONG AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A
SET UP THAT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.


&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

CONVECTION WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO DEVELOP TODAY...WITH A MAINLY
STABLE ATMOSPHERE DUE TO WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS...AND MEAGER MOISTURE.
HAVING SAID THAT THERE COULD BE SOME VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
THE MOUNTAINS THAT TRY TO FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CHANCES ARE TOO REMOTE TO MENTION AT ANY TAF SITE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING...BECOMING BREEZY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST/WEST OVER THE WEST AND FROM THE WIND CORRIDOR FROM
KRKS-KCPR. WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY IN JACKSON HOLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WYOMING FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH IS IN EFFECT  FOR THE CODY FOOTHILLS FROM NOON ON THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS WITH CRITICALLY DRY FUELS BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON...AS HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S COMBINE WITH LOW
RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPR SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS AND
INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED THUNDER TODAY ALSO REINFORCES THIS DECISION. THURSDAY
WILL PERHAPS SEE THE MOST EXTREME BEHAVIOR AS A STRONGLY INCREASED
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINES WITH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO
GIVE WESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL GUST BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER. HAVE ALSO
ADDED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONE 276 (CODY FOOTHILLS) THAT WILL
START THURSDAY AT NOON AND ALSO RUN THRU FRIDAY EVENING FOR SIMILAR
REASONING.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY
WYZ279-280-283-285-287-300.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING WYZ276.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN







000
FXUS65 KCYS 230853
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
253 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

LOTS OF FORECAST CHALLENGES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...RANGING
FROM SEVERE CONVECTIVE WEATHER TODAY TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

CURRENTLY...THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT DID MOVE INTO THE AREA
LAST EVENING AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM
CASPER...ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE DOWN TO LARAMIE AND THEN INTO
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. THIS FRONT IS SEPARATING VERY MOIST AIR
EAST OF THE FRONT...CHEYENNE HAS A 1AM DEWPOINT OF 57F/LARAMIE
55F...FROM VERY DRY AIR OUT OVER CARBON COUNTY WHERE THE DEWPOINT
AT RAWLINS IS 29F. THIS FEATURE IS GOING TO PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN
TODAYS FORECAST WEATHER.

FOR TODAY...FRONT IS GOING TO REMAIN AT ITS CURRENT LOCATION
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE IT STARTS TO GET FORCED EAST WITH
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW. LATEST HRRR FORECAST COMPOSITE
REFLECTIVITY HAS CONVECTION INITIATING ACROSS ALBANY COUNTY AND
THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE RIGHT AROUND 20Z TODAY DURING PEAK
HEATING. NAM SOUNDING FOR CHEYENNE HAS CAPE AROUND 1300 J/KG AT
THAT TIME WITH NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. PANHANDLE STAYS CAPPED A
LITTLE LONGER...NOT BREAKING THE CAP UNTIL AFTER 00Z. MUCH MORE
UNSTABLE OUT THERE WITH CHADRON NAM SOUNDING SHOWING SBCAPE CLOSE
TO 3500 J/KG. THINK DAY 1 SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA IS PRETTY
GOOD...BUT DO THINK THE LARAMIE COUNTY IS GOING TO SEE SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AND HAVE TAILORED OUR FORECAST WITH LARAMIE
COUNTY EXPERIENCING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS...THEN
SPREADING EAST INTO THE PANHANDLE AFTER 00Z...AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST AS A DRY LINE.

FOR THURSDAY...UPPER LOW MOVES INTO MONTANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH 700MB WINDS INCREASING OVER WYOMING. BY 18Z GFS 700MB WINDS
INCREASE TO 25-30KTS OVER CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW A UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER
RIDGE ALONG THE COLORADO/WYOMING LINE THAT WILL INTERACT WITH SOME
RESIDUAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO CREATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. GFS
HAS PRECIP MAINLY OVER COLORADO...WHILE ECMWF SPREAD THIS MOISTURE
NORTH INTO WYOMING. DID A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS WITH CHANCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER, FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF DRY
THUNDERSTORMS OUT WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THAT HAS ME A LITTLE
WORRIED ABOUT FIRE STARTS AS AFTERNOON MIN HUMIDITIES FALL TO 10
PERCENT ACROSS CARBON...NORTH ALBANY AND WEST CONVERSE COUNTIES.
WENT AHEAD WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THURSDAY FOR CONVERSE
COUNTY AS THIS AREA LOOKS TO BE THE BEST FOR A COMBINATION OF LOW
HUMIDITIES...GUSTY WINDS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS.

GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH VERY DRY DOWNSLOPING
WINDS OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE. COULD BE LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

MODELS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE
OVERALL PATTERN...SHOWING A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH NUDGES SOUTHWARD AND THE
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN
REGION. THERE ARE STILL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS REGARDING
AVAILABLE LOW TO MIDLEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH A SERIES OF COOL FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY
NIGHT...THE LACK OF ANY DEFINED DISTURBANCES IS CREATING QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH TSTORM CHANCES INTO MONDAY. CURRENT 00Z
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO TREND DRIER...AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW
RESULTS IN A BIT MORE STABILITY THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...NUDGING
THE MONSOON MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
AND COLORADO. STARTED TO LOWER POP FOR THIS WEEKEND ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH SINCE THE ECMWF IS NOW
TRENDING DRIER AS WELL. CURRENT SOUNDINGS SHOW TOO MUCH DRY AIR
ALOFT...SUPPRESSING ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM. AFTER ANOTHER
WARM DAY ON SATURDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO LOWER BELOW NORMAL
ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S UNDER COOL EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW.

CONDITIONS BECOME A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AFTER MONDAY AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING CLOCKWISE AROUND
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND INTO WYOMING. INCREASED POP LATE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE ON THE AGGRESSIVE SIDE WITH A HIGHER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS...AT LEAST SCATTERED DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING BY WEDNESDAY.
KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DUE TO EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW AND 700MB TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO BELOW 10C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
BRIEF MVFR VIS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE HIGH PLAINS IN ADDITION TO KLAR
BEGINNING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOW
CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT
THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME TO ADD TO AREA
TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN CARBON COUNTY AGAIN TODAY. A COLD
FRONT GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM CASPER TO LARAMIE WILL SEPARATE
RELATIVELY MOIST AIR EAST OF THE FRONT FROM THE REALLY DRY AIR TO
THE WEST. WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY IN THE EASTERN SECTOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES. CONDITIONS CHANGE
FOR THURSDAY THOUGH AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE EAST AGAIN AND
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES EARLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TO COMPLICATE THE CONDITIONS MORE...WE HAVE
THE POSSIBILITY OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
THAT COULD CREATE SOME FIRE STARTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FWZ 301 FOR THURSDAY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WYZ301.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB









000
FXUS65 KCYS 230853
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
253 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

LOTS OF FORECAST CHALLENGES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...RANGING
FROM SEVERE CONVECTIVE WEATHER TODAY TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

CURRENTLY...THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT DID MOVE INTO THE AREA
LAST EVENING AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM
CASPER...ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE DOWN TO LARAMIE AND THEN INTO
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. THIS FRONT IS SEPARATING VERY MOIST AIR
EAST OF THE FRONT...CHEYENNE HAS A 1AM DEWPOINT OF 57F/LARAMIE
55F...FROM VERY DRY AIR OUT OVER CARBON COUNTY WHERE THE DEWPOINT
AT RAWLINS IS 29F. THIS FEATURE IS GOING TO PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN
TODAYS FORECAST WEATHER.

FOR TODAY...FRONT IS GOING TO REMAIN AT ITS CURRENT LOCATION
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE IT STARTS TO GET FORCED EAST WITH
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW. LATEST HRRR FORECAST COMPOSITE
REFLECTIVITY HAS CONVECTION INITIATING ACROSS ALBANY COUNTY AND
THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE RIGHT AROUND 20Z TODAY DURING PEAK
HEATING. NAM SOUNDING FOR CHEYENNE HAS CAPE AROUND 1300 J/KG AT
THAT TIME WITH NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. PANHANDLE STAYS CAPPED A
LITTLE LONGER...NOT BREAKING THE CAP UNTIL AFTER 00Z. MUCH MORE
UNSTABLE OUT THERE WITH CHADRON NAM SOUNDING SHOWING SBCAPE CLOSE
TO 3500 J/KG. THINK DAY 1 SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA IS PRETTY
GOOD...BUT DO THINK THE LARAMIE COUNTY IS GOING TO SEE SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AND HAVE TAILORED OUR FORECAST WITH LARAMIE
COUNTY EXPERIENCING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS...THEN
SPREADING EAST INTO THE PANHANDLE AFTER 00Z...AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST AS A DRY LINE.

FOR THURSDAY...UPPER LOW MOVES INTO MONTANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH 700MB WINDS INCREASING OVER WYOMING. BY 18Z GFS 700MB WINDS
INCREASE TO 25-30KTS OVER CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW A UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER
RIDGE ALONG THE COLORADO/WYOMING LINE THAT WILL INTERACT WITH SOME
RESIDUAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO CREATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. GFS
HAS PRECIP MAINLY OVER COLORADO...WHILE ECMWF SPREAD THIS MOISTURE
NORTH INTO WYOMING. DID A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS WITH CHANCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER, FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF DRY
THUNDERSTORMS OUT WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THAT HAS ME A LITTLE
WORRIED ABOUT FIRE STARTS AS AFTERNOON MIN HUMIDITIES FALL TO 10
PERCENT ACROSS CARBON...NORTH ALBANY AND WEST CONVERSE COUNTIES.
WENT AHEAD WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THURSDAY FOR CONVERSE
COUNTY AS THIS AREA LOOKS TO BE THE BEST FOR A COMBINATION OF LOW
HUMIDITIES...GUSTY WINDS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS.

GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH VERY DRY DOWNSLOPING
WINDS OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE. COULD BE LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

MODELS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE
OVERALL PATTERN...SHOWING A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH NUDGES SOUTHWARD AND THE
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN
REGION. THERE ARE STILL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS REGARDING
AVAILABLE LOW TO MIDLEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH A SERIES OF COOL FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY
NIGHT...THE LACK OF ANY DEFINED DISTURBANCES IS CREATING QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH TSTORM CHANCES INTO MONDAY. CURRENT 00Z
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO TREND DRIER...AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW
RESULTS IN A BIT MORE STABILITY THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...NUDGING
THE MONSOON MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
AND COLORADO. STARTED TO LOWER POP FOR THIS WEEKEND ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH SINCE THE ECMWF IS NOW
TRENDING DRIER AS WELL. CURRENT SOUNDINGS SHOW TOO MUCH DRY AIR
ALOFT...SUPPRESSING ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM. AFTER ANOTHER
WARM DAY ON SATURDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO LOWER BELOW NORMAL
ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S UNDER COOL EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW.

CONDITIONS BECOME A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AFTER MONDAY AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING CLOCKWISE AROUND
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND INTO WYOMING. INCREASED POP LATE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE ON THE AGGRESSIVE SIDE WITH A HIGHER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS...AT LEAST SCATTERED DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING BY WEDNESDAY.
KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DUE TO EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW AND 700MB TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO BELOW 10C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
BRIEF MVFR VIS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE HIGH PLAINS IN ADDITION TO KLAR
BEGINNING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOW
CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT
THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME TO ADD TO AREA
TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN CARBON COUNTY AGAIN TODAY. A COLD
FRONT GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM CASPER TO LARAMIE WILL SEPARATE
RELATIVELY MOIST AIR EAST OF THE FRONT FROM THE REALLY DRY AIR TO
THE WEST. WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY IN THE EASTERN SECTOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES. CONDITIONS CHANGE
FOR THURSDAY THOUGH AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE EAST AGAIN AND
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES EARLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TO COMPLICATE THE CONDITIONS MORE...WE HAVE
THE POSSIBILITY OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
THAT COULD CREATE SOME FIRE STARTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FWZ 301 FOR THURSDAY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WYZ301.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB









000
FXUS65 KCYS 230853
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
253 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

LOTS OF FORECAST CHALLENGES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...RANGING
FROM SEVERE CONVECTIVE WEATHER TODAY TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

CURRENTLY...THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT DID MOVE INTO THE AREA
LAST EVENING AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM
CASPER...ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE DOWN TO LARAMIE AND THEN INTO
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. THIS FRONT IS SEPARATING VERY MOIST AIR
EAST OF THE FRONT...CHEYENNE HAS A 1AM DEWPOINT OF 57F/LARAMIE
55F...FROM VERY DRY AIR OUT OVER CARBON COUNTY WHERE THE DEWPOINT
AT RAWLINS IS 29F. THIS FEATURE IS GOING TO PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN
TODAYS FORECAST WEATHER.

FOR TODAY...FRONT IS GOING TO REMAIN AT ITS CURRENT LOCATION
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE IT STARTS TO GET FORCED EAST WITH
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW. LATEST HRRR FORECAST COMPOSITE
REFLECTIVITY HAS CONVECTION INITIATING ACROSS ALBANY COUNTY AND
THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE RIGHT AROUND 20Z TODAY DURING PEAK
HEATING. NAM SOUNDING FOR CHEYENNE HAS CAPE AROUND 1300 J/KG AT
THAT TIME WITH NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. PANHANDLE STAYS CAPPED A
LITTLE LONGER...NOT BREAKING THE CAP UNTIL AFTER 00Z. MUCH MORE
UNSTABLE OUT THERE WITH CHADRON NAM SOUNDING SHOWING SBCAPE CLOSE
TO 3500 J/KG. THINK DAY 1 SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA IS PRETTY
GOOD...BUT DO THINK THE LARAMIE COUNTY IS GOING TO SEE SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AND HAVE TAILORED OUR FORECAST WITH LARAMIE
COUNTY EXPERIENCING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS...THEN
SPREADING EAST INTO THE PANHANDLE AFTER 00Z...AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST AS A DRY LINE.

FOR THURSDAY...UPPER LOW MOVES INTO MONTANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH 700MB WINDS INCREASING OVER WYOMING. BY 18Z GFS 700MB WINDS
INCREASE TO 25-30KTS OVER CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW A UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER
RIDGE ALONG THE COLORADO/WYOMING LINE THAT WILL INTERACT WITH SOME
RESIDUAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO CREATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. GFS
HAS PRECIP MAINLY OVER COLORADO...WHILE ECMWF SPREAD THIS MOISTURE
NORTH INTO WYOMING. DID A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS WITH CHANCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER, FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF DRY
THUNDERSTORMS OUT WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THAT HAS ME A LITTLE
WORRIED ABOUT FIRE STARTS AS AFTERNOON MIN HUMIDITIES FALL TO 10
PERCENT ACROSS CARBON...NORTH ALBANY AND WEST CONVERSE COUNTIES.
WENT AHEAD WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THURSDAY FOR CONVERSE
COUNTY AS THIS AREA LOOKS TO BE THE BEST FOR A COMBINATION OF LOW
HUMIDITIES...GUSTY WINDS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS.

GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH VERY DRY DOWNSLOPING
WINDS OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE. COULD BE LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

MODELS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE
OVERALL PATTERN...SHOWING A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH NUDGES SOUTHWARD AND THE
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN
REGION. THERE ARE STILL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS REGARDING
AVAILABLE LOW TO MIDLEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH A SERIES OF COOL FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY
NIGHT...THE LACK OF ANY DEFINED DISTURBANCES IS CREATING QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH TSTORM CHANCES INTO MONDAY. CURRENT 00Z
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO TREND DRIER...AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW
RESULTS IN A BIT MORE STABILITY THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...NUDGING
THE MONSOON MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
AND COLORADO. STARTED TO LOWER POP FOR THIS WEEKEND ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH SINCE THE ECMWF IS NOW
TRENDING DRIER AS WELL. CURRENT SOUNDINGS SHOW TOO MUCH DRY AIR
ALOFT...SUPPRESSING ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM. AFTER ANOTHER
WARM DAY ON SATURDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO LOWER BELOW NORMAL
ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S UNDER COOL EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW.

CONDITIONS BECOME A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AFTER MONDAY AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING CLOCKWISE AROUND
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND INTO WYOMING. INCREASED POP LATE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE ON THE AGGRESSIVE SIDE WITH A HIGHER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS...AT LEAST SCATTERED DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING BY WEDNESDAY.
KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DUE TO EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW AND 700MB TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO BELOW 10C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
BRIEF MVFR VIS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE HIGH PLAINS IN ADDITION TO KLAR
BEGINNING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOW
CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT
THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME TO ADD TO AREA
TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN CARBON COUNTY AGAIN TODAY. A COLD
FRONT GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM CASPER TO LARAMIE WILL SEPARATE
RELATIVELY MOIST AIR EAST OF THE FRONT FROM THE REALLY DRY AIR TO
THE WEST. WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY IN THE EASTERN SECTOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES. CONDITIONS CHANGE
FOR THURSDAY THOUGH AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE EAST AGAIN AND
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES EARLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TO COMPLICATE THE CONDITIONS MORE...WE HAVE
THE POSSIBILITY OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
THAT COULD CREATE SOME FIRE STARTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FWZ 301 FOR THURSDAY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WYZ301.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB









000
FXUS65 KCYS 230853
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
253 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

LOTS OF FORECAST CHALLENGES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...RANGING
FROM SEVERE CONVECTIVE WEATHER TODAY TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

CURRENTLY...THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT DID MOVE INTO THE AREA
LAST EVENING AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM
CASPER...ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE DOWN TO LARAMIE AND THEN INTO
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. THIS FRONT IS SEPARATING VERY MOIST AIR
EAST OF THE FRONT...CHEYENNE HAS A 1AM DEWPOINT OF 57F/LARAMIE
55F...FROM VERY DRY AIR OUT OVER CARBON COUNTY WHERE THE DEWPOINT
AT RAWLINS IS 29F. THIS FEATURE IS GOING TO PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN
TODAYS FORECAST WEATHER.

FOR TODAY...FRONT IS GOING TO REMAIN AT ITS CURRENT LOCATION
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE IT STARTS TO GET FORCED EAST WITH
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW. LATEST HRRR FORECAST COMPOSITE
REFLECTIVITY HAS CONVECTION INITIATING ACROSS ALBANY COUNTY AND
THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE RIGHT AROUND 20Z TODAY DURING PEAK
HEATING. NAM SOUNDING FOR CHEYENNE HAS CAPE AROUND 1300 J/KG AT
THAT TIME WITH NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. PANHANDLE STAYS CAPPED A
LITTLE LONGER...NOT BREAKING THE CAP UNTIL AFTER 00Z. MUCH MORE
UNSTABLE OUT THERE WITH CHADRON NAM SOUNDING SHOWING SBCAPE CLOSE
TO 3500 J/KG. THINK DAY 1 SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA IS PRETTY
GOOD...BUT DO THINK THE LARAMIE COUNTY IS GOING TO SEE SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AND HAVE TAILORED OUR FORECAST WITH LARAMIE
COUNTY EXPERIENCING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS...THEN
SPREADING EAST INTO THE PANHANDLE AFTER 00Z...AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST AS A DRY LINE.

FOR THURSDAY...UPPER LOW MOVES INTO MONTANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH 700MB WINDS INCREASING OVER WYOMING. BY 18Z GFS 700MB WINDS
INCREASE TO 25-30KTS OVER CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW A UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER
RIDGE ALONG THE COLORADO/WYOMING LINE THAT WILL INTERACT WITH SOME
RESIDUAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO CREATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. GFS
HAS PRECIP MAINLY OVER COLORADO...WHILE ECMWF SPREAD THIS MOISTURE
NORTH INTO WYOMING. DID A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS WITH CHANCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER, FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF DRY
THUNDERSTORMS OUT WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THAT HAS ME A LITTLE
WORRIED ABOUT FIRE STARTS AS AFTERNOON MIN HUMIDITIES FALL TO 10
PERCENT ACROSS CARBON...NORTH ALBANY AND WEST CONVERSE COUNTIES.
WENT AHEAD WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THURSDAY FOR CONVERSE
COUNTY AS THIS AREA LOOKS TO BE THE BEST FOR A COMBINATION OF LOW
HUMIDITIES...GUSTY WINDS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS.

GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH VERY DRY DOWNSLOPING
WINDS OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE. COULD BE LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

MODELS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE
OVERALL PATTERN...SHOWING A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH NUDGES SOUTHWARD AND THE
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN
REGION. THERE ARE STILL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS REGARDING
AVAILABLE LOW TO MIDLEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH A SERIES OF COOL FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY
NIGHT...THE LACK OF ANY DEFINED DISTURBANCES IS CREATING QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH TSTORM CHANCES INTO MONDAY. CURRENT 00Z
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO TREND DRIER...AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW
RESULTS IN A BIT MORE STABILITY THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...NUDGING
THE MONSOON MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
AND COLORADO. STARTED TO LOWER POP FOR THIS WEEKEND ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH SINCE THE ECMWF IS NOW
TRENDING DRIER AS WELL. CURRENT SOUNDINGS SHOW TOO MUCH DRY AIR
ALOFT...SUPPRESSING ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM. AFTER ANOTHER
WARM DAY ON SATURDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO LOWER BELOW NORMAL
ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S UNDER COOL EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW.

CONDITIONS BECOME A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AFTER MONDAY AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING CLOCKWISE AROUND
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND INTO WYOMING. INCREASED POP LATE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE ON THE AGGRESSIVE SIDE WITH A HIGHER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS...AT LEAST SCATTERED DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING BY WEDNESDAY.
KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DUE TO EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW AND 700MB TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO BELOW 10C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
BRIEF MVFR VIS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE HIGH PLAINS IN ADDITION TO KLAR
BEGINNING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOW
CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT
THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME TO ADD TO AREA
TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN CARBON COUNTY AGAIN TODAY. A COLD
FRONT GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM CASPER TO LARAMIE WILL SEPARATE
RELATIVELY MOIST AIR EAST OF THE FRONT FROM THE REALLY DRY AIR TO
THE WEST. WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY IN THE EASTERN SECTOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES. CONDITIONS CHANGE
FOR THURSDAY THOUGH AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE EAST AGAIN AND
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES EARLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TO COMPLICATE THE CONDITIONS MORE...WE HAVE
THE POSSIBILITY OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
THAT COULD CREATE SOME FIRE STARTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FWZ 301 FOR THURSDAY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WYZ301.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB









000
FXUS63 KUNR 230837
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
237 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LEE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL MT INTO
SOUTHEAST WY. WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES NOTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST MT
INTO CENTRAL SD. CLUSTER OF SEVERE CONVECTION HEADING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...SPURRED
ON BY WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEAST WY PER WATER VAPOUR LOOP AND
30KT LOW LEVEL JET. BEHIND IT...UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER MT/WY
WITH UPSTREAM WAVES OVER ID/WESTERN MT. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS
ORGANIZED TSRA EXITING CWA BY 12Z...BUT COULD BE A FEW LINGERING
CELLS EARLY.

TODAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THERMAL
RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING. LEE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST A BIT WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL WY IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE
ROTATING AROUND RIDGE INTO MT. SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST
COMBINED WITH WY LOW RESULTS IN SOMEWHAT TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
STRENGTHENING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW UP TO 25KTS. AHEAD OF LEE
TROUGH...2-4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCIN
WEAKENING...ESPECIALLY AFTER 21Z. DIRECT UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES HARD TO DEPICT IN GUIDANCE OR TO SEE UPSTREAM ON WATER
VAPOUR...BUT A COUPLE OF WEAK 700MB SHORTWAVES FORECAST BY MODELS
TO SHIFT INTO EASTERN WY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE
LAST NUDGE TO ALLOW TSRA TO ERUPT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR 15-20M/S WITH
RATHER SLOW RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELL MOVEMENT...IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
0-6KM MEAN WIND 15-20KTS. WITH SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVEMENT THAN
GUIDANCE SHOWED YESTERDAY...IT APPEARS FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL NOT
AS CLEARLY DEFINED...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS DO REACH 150
PERCENT OF NORMAL. LOCAL FLASH FLOOD COMPOSITE PARAMETER HAS
BACKED OFF NOTICEABLY. THUS WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WATER HEADLINES
AT THIS POINT AND PASS ON CONCERN TO DAY SHIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR GUIDANCE IN THE WEST AND NEAR BIAS CORRECTED VALUES IN THE
EAST.

TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES OVER EASTERN MT WITH WARM FRONT
ACROSS NORTHERN SD. ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AS 30-40KT LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS/INTERSECTS WARM FRONT...TRANSLATING BEST
850-700MB THETA-E ADVECTION EAST OF AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP GIVEN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW.

THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE FLOPS OVER IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE/UPPER LOW
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN BC/AB. LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MT WILL MOVE
INTO CENTRAL SD. AHEAD OF IT...STRONG THERMAL RIDGE PEAKS OVER CWA
WITH DRY LINE SURGING INTO SOUTHWEST SD FROM WY. TRAILING COOL FRONT
BEHIND LOW WILL DROP INTO CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. 1-2KJ/KG POST
FRONTAL MLCAPE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF CWA. 2-3KJ/KG
MLCAPE IN WARM SECTOR LIKELY...BUT MLCIN WILL BE MUCH STRONGER
THERE. 0-6KM SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS POST FRONTAL IN THE
NORTH...WITH MARGINAL VALUES IN THE SOUTH...BUT DEEP MIXING MAY
PROMOTE SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER
SOUTHWEST SD. EXPECT SEVERE STORMS LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
FAR NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE POST FRONTAL
AND HAVE ADJUSTED NEAR/ABOVE GUIDANCE SOUTH OF DRY LINE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...COOL FRONT SURGES THROUGH CWA WITH BREEZY SPOTS
BEHIND IT AND CONVECTION MOVING EAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROF SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF SLIDES EAST...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE
WEST...BRINGING PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE BLACK
HILLS THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...INCLUDING KRAP...THROUGH
12Z. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15




000
FXUS63 KUNR 230837
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
237 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LEE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL MT INTO
SOUTHEAST WY. WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES NOTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST MT
INTO CENTRAL SD. CLUSTER OF SEVERE CONVECTION HEADING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...SPURRED
ON BY WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEAST WY PER WATER VAPOUR LOOP AND
30KT LOW LEVEL JET. BEHIND IT...UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER MT/WY
WITH UPSTREAM WAVES OVER ID/WESTERN MT. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS
ORGANIZED TSRA EXITING CWA BY 12Z...BUT COULD BE A FEW LINGERING
CELLS EARLY.

TODAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THERMAL
RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING. LEE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST A BIT WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL WY IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE
ROTATING AROUND RIDGE INTO MT. SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST
COMBINED WITH WY LOW RESULTS IN SOMEWHAT TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
STRENGTHENING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW UP TO 25KTS. AHEAD OF LEE
TROUGH...2-4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCIN
WEAKENING...ESPECIALLY AFTER 21Z. DIRECT UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES HARD TO DEPICT IN GUIDANCE OR TO SEE UPSTREAM ON WATER
VAPOUR...BUT A COUPLE OF WEAK 700MB SHORTWAVES FORECAST BY MODELS
TO SHIFT INTO EASTERN WY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE
LAST NUDGE TO ALLOW TSRA TO ERUPT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR 15-20M/S WITH
RATHER SLOW RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELL MOVEMENT...IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
0-6KM MEAN WIND 15-20KTS. WITH SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVEMENT THAN
GUIDANCE SHOWED YESTERDAY...IT APPEARS FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL NOT
AS CLEARLY DEFINED...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS DO REACH 150
PERCENT OF NORMAL. LOCAL FLASH FLOOD COMPOSITE PARAMETER HAS
BACKED OFF NOTICEABLY. THUS WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WATER HEADLINES
AT THIS POINT AND PASS ON CONCERN TO DAY SHIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR GUIDANCE IN THE WEST AND NEAR BIAS CORRECTED VALUES IN THE
EAST.

TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES OVER EASTERN MT WITH WARM FRONT
ACROSS NORTHERN SD. ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AS 30-40KT LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS/INTERSECTS WARM FRONT...TRANSLATING BEST
850-700MB THETA-E ADVECTION EAST OF AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP GIVEN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW.

THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE FLOPS OVER IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE/UPPER LOW
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN BC/AB. LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MT WILL MOVE
INTO CENTRAL SD. AHEAD OF IT...STRONG THERMAL RIDGE PEAKS OVER CWA
WITH DRY LINE SURGING INTO SOUTHWEST SD FROM WY. TRAILING COOL FRONT
BEHIND LOW WILL DROP INTO CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. 1-2KJ/KG POST
FRONTAL MLCAPE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF CWA. 2-3KJ/KG
MLCAPE IN WARM SECTOR LIKELY...BUT MLCIN WILL BE MUCH STRONGER
THERE. 0-6KM SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS POST FRONTAL IN THE
NORTH...WITH MARGINAL VALUES IN THE SOUTH...BUT DEEP MIXING MAY
PROMOTE SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER
SOUTHWEST SD. EXPECT SEVERE STORMS LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
FAR NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE POST FRONTAL
AND HAVE ADJUSTED NEAR/ABOVE GUIDANCE SOUTH OF DRY LINE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...COOL FRONT SURGES THROUGH CWA WITH BREEZY SPOTS
BEHIND IT AND CONVECTION MOVING EAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROF SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF SLIDES EAST...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE
WEST...BRINGING PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE BLACK
HILLS THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...INCLUDING KRAP...THROUGH
12Z. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15





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