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000
FXUS65 KRIW 310520
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1120 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY (ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT)

CERTAINLY MUCH QUIETER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WAS AT THIS TIME.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE MUCH LOWER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND AND COMBINED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH FOR SOME SHOWERS TO LINGER...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE WIND
RIVER RANGE AND ALSO ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. AND LIKE
YESTERDAY...WHERE MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS IT IS STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY
SO TEMPERATURES AND INSTABILITY ARE RELATIVELY LIMITED. AS A
RESULT...FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE
MORE SUNSHINE WILL BRING MORE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THERE IS NOT A
LOT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EVEN TO VAST MAJORITY OF STORMS WOULD BE
OF THE RUN OF THE MILL VARIETY.

ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REALLY WANE AFTER THE EVENING HOURS AS
DRIER AIR CONTINUES PRESS TOWARD THE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. WITH
THE RAIN THERE COULD BE SOME FOG IN THE SOUTH SO WE WILL ADD SOME TO
THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED RAIN TODAY.

AS FOR TOMORROW...MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL NOT BE A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.  HOWEVER...WITH YET ANOTHER IN THE STRING OF
NEVER ENDING SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WE WILL
LIKELY HAVE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE HIGH ELEVATION HEAT SOURCE. WITH MORE
SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE UPWARD TREND MORE SUNSHINE
AND INCREASING THICKNESSES BUT REMAIN NEAR TO SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

OVERALL THU NIGHT THROUGH THE WEAKEN...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST
AS UPR LVL RIDGE DOES NOT VARY MUCH IN POSITION THRU SAT...EXCEPT TO
SLIGHTLY MIGRATE EWD A FEW MILES...REMOVING THE FA FROM NW FLOW BY
SAT....THEN BROADENING AND FLATTENING SUN. AT LOWER LVLS...HEAT LOW
OVR THE DESERT SW REMAIN AND WILL KEEP PUMPING MONSOONAL MOISTURE
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN PERIODICALLY. WHILE IT WILL NOT BE A CONSTANT
STREAM OF MOISTURE OR KEEP PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...THE WRN MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH THE SRN MOST FA WILL BE
AFFECTED MOST THRU THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY...AS THE RIDGE WANDER
WWD...HEIGHTS WILL RECOVER AND TEMPS WILL WILL BEGIN A SLOW RISE
BACK TO SEASONABLY WARM. CONVECTIVE FORCING THRU THE WEEKEND WILL
BEST COME FROM THE MOUNTAINS FIRST AND MINOR UPR LVL DISTURBANCES
SECOND.

MON THRU WED...BEST CHCS IN THE EXTENDED FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR IN
THE MON/TUE TIMEFRAME...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO WED OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL OCCUR FOR SEVERAL REASONS...INCLUDING THE MOVEMENT OF
STRONG PVA THAT WILL GENERATE HIGH OVER THE SONORA DESERT THIS
WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A SMALL DISTURBANCE THAT SHOWS WEAKLY IN THE
WV IMAGERY OVR THE SRN BAJA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN INCREASED POSITIVE VORT AS IT MOVES OVR THE HEAT LOW AND UNDER
THE UPR HIGH...NWD MOVEMENT...AND POSSIBLY THE FORMATION OF A WEAK
UPR LOW BY SUN. THIS WILL THEN BE DRAWN UP INTO THE GREAT BASIN
THRU SUN WITH THE OF THE EASIER TO FCST UPSTREAM TROF KICKING OUT OF
AND AHEAD OF THE LARGE GULF OF AK  LOW. THESE CONDITIONS WILL THEN
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CWA BY MONDAY WITH A LARGE INCREASE IN DEEP
MOISTURE PHASING WITH A LITTLE BETTER UPR DYNAMICS IN ADDITION TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE LOW LVL BOUNDARIES LIKE A LEE LOW AND
POSSIBLE MID LVL FRONTOGENESIS. ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO FCST WAS
TO RAISE LOW TEMPS MON NIGHT AND TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS FOR TUE WITH
SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN CLOUDINESS AFFECTING BOTH.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. PATCHY FOG
WILL OCCUR IN SOUTHWEST WY UNTIL 15Z WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FORM OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
AFTER 19Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 02Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LINGER
UNTIL 06Z FRIDAY. MOST TERMINAL SITES WILL NOT SEE STORMS OR SHOWERS
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. PLEASE SEE INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SHOULD END WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE UP AND
OVER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY WITH THE MOST
NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER WESTERN WY AS FAR EAST AS THE
WESTERN EDGES OF THE CENTRAL BASINS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
RECOVER DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK BUT WILL REMAIN AT OR
BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...BRAUN
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS





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000
FXUS63 KUNR 310516
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1116 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
ABUNDANT TCU FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
STRONGER SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY OVER SASKATCHEWAN...MOVES THROUGH
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA.
GIVEN LOW CAPE/WEAK SHEAR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE FLOW SLOWLY...BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE...AND BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH MONDAY...THEN COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
ACCOMPANY THE HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
-TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY OVER WESTERN SD...MAINLY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS UNDER THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 310516
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1116 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
ABUNDANT TCU FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
STRONGER SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY OVER SASKATCHEWAN...MOVES THROUGH
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA.
GIVEN LOW CAPE/WEAK SHEAR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE FLOW SLOWLY...BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE...AND BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH MONDAY...THEN COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
ACCOMPANY THE HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
-TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY OVER WESTERN SD...MAINLY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS UNDER THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...HELGESON




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000
FXUS65 KCYS 310428
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1028 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE STUBBORN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WYOMING. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THIS FEATURE WEAKENING AND
DISSIPATING NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER TONIGHT...INSTEAD OF MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS THE REASON WHY CONDITIONS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO IMPROVE TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR. EXPECT OFF AND ON RAIN
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...SO KEPT
TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY
END BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST CLOUDY
AND VERY COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS LOCATIONS SEE LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE ONLY OTHER
MINOR CONCERN TONIGHT IS FOG...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE.

MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...LIMITING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AND
GENERALLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IT WILL BE PLEASANT DURING
THE DAY HOWEVER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WARMEST
OVER EAST CENTRAL WYOMING TO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. IT WILL REMAIN
COOL AT NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S OR POSSIBLY UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE HIGH VALLEYS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. KEPT A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. FURTHER EAST..THIS DRY AIR WILL MAINLY
BE ALOFT WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 40S AND 50S EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. THIS DRY AIR ALONG WITH A TEMPERATURE INVERSION
ABOVE 600MB WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE MAINTAIN A
STRONG HOLD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THRU THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MOSTLY DRY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THIS TIME WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR A
FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR BY SUNDAY AS H7 TEMPS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 11 AND
17C. ANOTHER PUSH OF SUBTROPICAL ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL RIDE UP
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WITH WARMER TEMPS AND PWATS FORECAST TO EXCEED ONE
INCH...LOOKING AT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS TIME. STEERING FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WEAK SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL INCREASE AS WELL. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPSLOPE REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWING SURFACE WINDS STAYING WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.
SO WENT AHEAD AND PULLED THE IFR FOG/STRATUS OUT OF KCYS AND KLAR.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND DUE TO THE RECENT
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS...HIGH HUMIDITIES...AND LOWER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT AS WELL ACROSS THE AREA.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...TJT






000
FXUS65 KCYS 310428
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1028 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE STUBBORN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WYOMING. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THIS FEATURE WEAKENING AND
DISSIPATING NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER TONIGHT...INSTEAD OF MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS THE REASON WHY CONDITIONS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO IMPROVE TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR. EXPECT OFF AND ON RAIN
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...SO KEPT
TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY
END BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST CLOUDY
AND VERY COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS LOCATIONS SEE LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE ONLY OTHER
MINOR CONCERN TONIGHT IS FOG...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE.

MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...LIMITING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AND
GENERALLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IT WILL BE PLEASANT DURING
THE DAY HOWEVER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WARMEST
OVER EAST CENTRAL WYOMING TO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. IT WILL REMAIN
COOL AT NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S OR POSSIBLY UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE HIGH VALLEYS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. KEPT A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. FURTHER EAST..THIS DRY AIR WILL MAINLY
BE ALOFT WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 40S AND 50S EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. THIS DRY AIR ALONG WITH A TEMPERATURE INVERSION
ABOVE 600MB WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE MAINTAIN A
STRONG HOLD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THRU THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MOSTLY DRY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THIS TIME WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR A
FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR BY SUNDAY AS H7 TEMPS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 11 AND
17C. ANOTHER PUSH OF SUBTROPICAL ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL RIDE UP
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WITH WARMER TEMPS AND PWATS FORECAST TO EXCEED ONE
INCH...LOOKING AT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS TIME. STEERING FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WEAK SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL INCREASE AS WELL. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPSLOPE REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWING SURFACE WINDS STAYING WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.
SO WENT AHEAD AND PULLED THE IFR FOG/STRATUS OUT OF KCYS AND KLAR.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND DUE TO THE RECENT
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS...HIGH HUMIDITIES...AND LOWER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT AS WELL ACROSS THE AREA.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...TJT







000
FXUS63 KUNR 302326
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
526 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
ABUNDANT TCU FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
STRONGER SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY OVER SASKATCHEWAN...MOVES THROUGH
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA.
GIVEN LOW CAPE/WEAK SHEAR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE FLOW SLOWLY...BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE...AND BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH MONDAY...THEN COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
ACCOMPANY THE HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
-TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL SD AND
THE BLACK HILLS AREA WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS IN THE HEAVIEST PRECIP.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...HELGESON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 302326
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
526 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
ABUNDANT TCU FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
STRONGER SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY OVER SASKATCHEWAN...MOVES THROUGH
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA.
GIVEN LOW CAPE/WEAK SHEAR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE FLOW SLOWLY...BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE...AND BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH MONDAY...THEN COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
ACCOMPANY THE HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
-TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL SD AND
THE BLACK HILLS AREA WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS IN THE HEAVIEST PRECIP.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS65 KCYS 302316
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
516 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE STUBBORN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WYOMING. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THIS FEATURE WEAKENING AND
DISSIPATING NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER TONIGHT...INSTEAD OF MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS THE REASON WHY CONDITIONS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO IMPROVE TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR. EXPECT OFF AND ON RAIN
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...SO KEPT
TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY
END BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST CLOUDY
AND VERY COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS LOCATIONS SEE LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE ONLY OTHER
MINOR CONCERN TONIGHT IS FOG...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE.

MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...LIMITING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AND
GENERALLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IT WILL BE PLEASANT DURING
THE DAY HOWEVER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WARMEST
OVER EAST CENTRAL WYOMING TO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. IT WILL REMAIN
COOL AT NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S OR POSSIBLY UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE HIGH VALLEYS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. KEPT A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. FURTHER EAST..THIS DRY AIR WILL MAINLY
BE ALOFT WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 40S AND 50S EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. THIS DRY AIR ALONG WITH A TEMPERATURE INVERSION
ABOVE 600MB WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE MAINTAIN A
STRONG HOLD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THRU THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MOSTLY DRY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THIS TIME WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR A
FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR BY SUNDAY AS H7 TEMPS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 11 AND
17C. ANOTHER PUSH OF SUBTROPICAL ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL RIDE UP
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WITH WARMER TEMPS AND PWATS FORECAST TO EXCEED ONE
INCH...LOOKING AT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS TIME. STEERING FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WEAK SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL INCREASE AS WELL. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPSLOPE REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 512 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE. COULD
SEE SOME IFR FOG AND/OR STRATUS HERE AT KCYS AND KLAR. SREF AND
LATEST HRRR FORECAST HINTING AT THIS FOR BOTH AIRPORTS. WENT AHEAD
AND BROUGHT MVFR CONDITIONS IN AT 04Z AND THEN IFR AROUND 07Z.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THE TIMING OF THE MVFR/IFR. OUTSIDE THE
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND DUE TO THE RECENT
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS...HIGH HUMIDITIES...AND LOWER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT AS WELL ACROSS THE AREA.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...TJT






000
FXUS65 KCYS 302316
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
516 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE STUBBORN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WYOMING. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THIS FEATURE WEAKENING AND
DISSIPATING NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER TONIGHT...INSTEAD OF MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS THE REASON WHY CONDITIONS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO IMPROVE TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR. EXPECT OFF AND ON RAIN
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...SO KEPT
TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY
END BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST CLOUDY
AND VERY COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS LOCATIONS SEE LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE ONLY OTHER
MINOR CONCERN TONIGHT IS FOG...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE.

MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...LIMITING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AND
GENERALLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IT WILL BE PLEASANT DURING
THE DAY HOWEVER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WARMEST
OVER EAST CENTRAL WYOMING TO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. IT WILL REMAIN
COOL AT NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S OR POSSIBLY UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE HIGH VALLEYS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. KEPT A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. FURTHER EAST..THIS DRY AIR WILL MAINLY
BE ALOFT WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 40S AND 50S EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. THIS DRY AIR ALONG WITH A TEMPERATURE INVERSION
ABOVE 600MB WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE MAINTAIN A
STRONG HOLD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THRU THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MOSTLY DRY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THIS TIME WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR A
FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR BY SUNDAY AS H7 TEMPS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 11 AND
17C. ANOTHER PUSH OF SUBTROPICAL ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL RIDE UP
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WITH WARMER TEMPS AND PWATS FORECAST TO EXCEED ONE
INCH...LOOKING AT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS TIME. STEERING FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WEAK SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL INCREASE AS WELL. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPSLOPE REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 512 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE. COULD
SEE SOME IFR FOG AND/OR STRATUS HERE AT KCYS AND KLAR. SREF AND
LATEST HRRR FORECAST HINTING AT THIS FOR BOTH AIRPORTS. WENT AHEAD
AND BROUGHT MVFR CONDITIONS IN AT 04Z AND THEN IFR AROUND 07Z.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THE TIMING OF THE MVFR/IFR. OUTSIDE THE
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND DUE TO THE RECENT
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS...HIGH HUMIDITIES...AND LOWER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT AS WELL ACROSS THE AREA.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...TJT







000
FXUS65 KCYS 302140
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
340 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE STUBBORN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WYOMING. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THIS FEATURE WEAKENING AND
DISSIPATING NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER TONIGHT...INSTEAD OF MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS THE REASON WHY CONDITIONS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO IMPROVE TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR. EXPECT OFF AND ON RAIN
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...SO KEPT
TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY
END BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST CLOUDY
AND VERY COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS LOCATIONS SEE LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE ONLY OTHER
MINOR CONCERN TONIGHT IS FOG...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE.

MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...LIMITING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AND
GENERALLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IT WILL BE PLEASANT DURING
THE DAY HOWEVER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WARMEST
OVER EAST CENTRAL WYOMING TO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. IT WILL REMAIN
COOL AT NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S OR POSSIBLY UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE HIGH VALLEYS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. KEPT A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. FURTHER EAST..THIS DRY AIR WILL MAINLY
BE ALOFT WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 40S AND 50S EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. THIS DRY AIR ALONG WITH A TEMPERATURE INVERSION
ABOVE 600MB WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE MAINTAIN A
STRONG HOLD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THRU THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MOSTLY DRY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THIS TIME WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR A
FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR BY SUNDAY AS H7 TEMPS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 11 AND
17C. ANOTHER PUSH OF SUBTROPICAL ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL RIDE UP
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WITH WARMER TEMPS AND PWATS FORECAST TO EXCEED ONE
INCH...LOOKING AT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS TIME. STEERING FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WEAK SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL INCREASE AS WELL. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPSLOPE REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND INTO SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AS WELL. THIS INCLUDES KRWL...KLAR...KCYS...AND KSNY.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FOR THESE LOCATIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A RETURN TO VFR ANTICIPATED BY THIS EVENING. THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING WILL REMAIN OBSCURED THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH
WILL KEEP VFR CIGS IN PLACE. WINDS OVERALL WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING MUCH OF CARBON COUNTY WHERE GUSTS
OF 20 TO 25 KTS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND DUE TO THE RECENT
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS...HIGH HUMIDITIES...AND LOWER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT AS WELL ACROSS THE AREA.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...TJT






000
FXUS65 KCYS 302140
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
340 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE STUBBORN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WYOMING. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THIS FEATURE WEAKENING AND
DISSIPATING NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER TONIGHT...INSTEAD OF MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS THE REASON WHY CONDITIONS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO IMPROVE TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR. EXPECT OFF AND ON RAIN
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...SO KEPT
TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY
END BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST CLOUDY
AND VERY COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS LOCATIONS SEE LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE ONLY OTHER
MINOR CONCERN TONIGHT IS FOG...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE.

MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...LIMITING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AND
GENERALLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IT WILL BE PLEASANT DURING
THE DAY HOWEVER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WARMEST
OVER EAST CENTRAL WYOMING TO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. IT WILL REMAIN
COOL AT NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S OR POSSIBLY UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE HIGH VALLEYS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. KEPT A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. FURTHER EAST..THIS DRY AIR WILL MAINLY
BE ALOFT WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 40S AND 50S EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. THIS DRY AIR ALONG WITH A TEMPERATURE INVERSION
ABOVE 600MB WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE MAINTAIN A
STRONG HOLD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THRU THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MOSTLY DRY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THIS TIME WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR A
FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR BY SUNDAY AS H7 TEMPS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 11 AND
17C. ANOTHER PUSH OF SUBTROPICAL ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL RIDE UP
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WITH WARMER TEMPS AND PWATS FORECAST TO EXCEED ONE
INCH...LOOKING AT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS TIME. STEERING FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WEAK SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL INCREASE AS WELL. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPSLOPE REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND INTO SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AS WELL. THIS INCLUDES KRWL...KLAR...KCYS...AND KSNY.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FOR THESE LOCATIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A RETURN TO VFR ANTICIPATED BY THIS EVENING. THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING WILL REMAIN OBSCURED THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH
WILL KEEP VFR CIGS IN PLACE. WINDS OVERALL WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING MUCH OF CARBON COUNTY WHERE GUSTS
OF 20 TO 25 KTS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND DUE TO THE RECENT
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS...HIGH HUMIDITIES...AND LOWER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT AS WELL ACROSS THE AREA.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...TJT







000
FXUS65 KRIW 302100
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
300 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

CERTAINLY MUCH QUIETER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WAS AT THIS TIME.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE MUCH LOWER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND AND COMBINED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH FOR SOME SHOWERS TO LINGER...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE WIND
RIVER RANGE AND ALSO ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. AND LIKE
YESTERDAY...WHERE MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS IT IS STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY
SO TEMPERATURES AND INSTABILITY ARE RELATIVELY LIMITED. AS A
RESULT...FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE
MORE SUNSHINE WILL BRING MORE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THERE IS NOT A
LOT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EVEN TO VAST MAJORITY OF STORMS WOULD BE
OF THE RUN OF THE MILL VARIETY.

ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REALLY WANE AFTER THE EVENING HOURS AS
DRIER AIR CONTINUES PRESS TOWARD THE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. WITH
THE RAIN THERE COULD BE SOME FOG IN THE SOUTH SO WE WILL ADD SOME TO
THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED RAIN TODAY.

AS FOR TOMORROW...MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL NOT BE A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.  HOWEVER...WITH YET ANOTHER IN THE STRING OF
NEVER ENDING SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WE WILL
LIKELY HAVE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE HIGH ELEVATION HEAT SOURCE. WITH MORE
SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE UPWARD TREND MORE SUNSHINE
AND INCREASING THICKNESSES BUT REMAIN NEAR TO SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

OVERALL THU NIGHT THROUGH THE WEAKEN...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST AS UPR
LVL RIDGE DOES NOT VARY MUCH IN POSITION THRU SAT...EXCEPT TO SLIGHTLY
MIGRATE EWD A FEW MILES...REMOVING THE FA FROM NW FLOW BY
SAT....THEN BROADENING AND FLATTENING SUN. AT LOWER LVLS...HEAT LOW
OVR THE DESERT SW REMAIN AND WILL KEEP PUMPING MONSOONAL MOISTURE
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN PERIODICALLY. WHILE IT WILL NOT BE A CONSTANT
STREAM OF MOISTURE OR KEEP PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...THE WRN MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH THE SRN MOST FA WILL BE
AFFECTED MOST THRU THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY...AS THE RIDGE WANDER
WWD...HEIGHTS WILL RECOVER AND TEMPS WILL WILL BEGIN A SLOW RISE
BACK TO SEASONABLY WARM. CONVECTIVE FORCING THRU THE WEEKEND WILL
BEST COME FROM THE MOUNTAINS FIRST AND MINOR UPR LVL DISTURBANCES
SECOND.

MON THRU WED...BEST CHCS IN THE EXTENDED FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR IN
THE MON/TUE TIMEFRAME...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO WED OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL OCCUR FOR SEVERAL REASONS...INCLUDING THE MOVEMENT OF
STRONG PVA THAT WILL GENERATE HIGH OVER THE SONORA DESERT THIS
WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A SMALL DISTURBANCE THAT SHOWS WEAKLY IN THE
WV IMAGERY OVR THE SRN BAJA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN INCREASED POSITIVE VORT AS IT MOVES OVR THE HEAT LOW AND UNDER
THE UPR HIGH...NWD MOVEMENT...AND POSSIBLY THE FORMATION OF A WEAK
UPR LOW BY SUN. THIS WILL THEN BE DRAWN UP INTO THE GREAT BASIN
THRU SUN WITH THE OF THE EASIER TO FCST UPSTREAM TROF KICKING OUT OF
AND AHEAD OF THE LARGE GULF OF AK  LOW. THESE CONDITIONS WILL THEN
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CWA BY MONDAY WITH A LARGE INCREASE IN DEEP
MOISTURE PHASING WITH A LITTLE BETTER UPR DYNAMICS IN ADDITION TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE LOW LVL BOUNDARIES LIKE A LEE LOW AND POSSIBLE
MID LVL FRONTOGENESIS. ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO FCST WAS TO RAISE
LOW TEMPS MON NIGHT AND TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS FOR TUE WITH SIGNIFICANT
INCREASES IN CLOUDINESS AFFECTING BOTH.
&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

MOST CONVECTION SHOULD END AT THE TAF SITES WEST OF THE DIVIDE BY
AROUND 3Z WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A FEW SPOTS COULD SEE PATCHY
FOG...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF KJAC...KPNA...KBPI AND KRKS BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREDOMINATE MOST OF TOMORROW WITH ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
RESTRICTED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND IN VICINITY OF KJAC.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SHOULD END WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE UP AND
OVER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY WITH THE MOST
NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER WESTERN WY AS FAR EAST AS THE
WESTERN EDGES OF THE CENTRAL BASINS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
RECOVER DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK BUT WILL REMAIN AT OR
BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS.
&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...BRAUN
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS






000
FXUS65 KRIW 302100
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
300 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

CERTAINLY MUCH QUIETER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WAS AT THIS TIME.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE MUCH LOWER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND AND COMBINED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH FOR SOME SHOWERS TO LINGER...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE WIND
RIVER RANGE AND ALSO ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. AND LIKE
YESTERDAY...WHERE MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS IT IS STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY
SO TEMPERATURES AND INSTABILITY ARE RELATIVELY LIMITED. AS A
RESULT...FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE
MORE SUNSHINE WILL BRING MORE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THERE IS NOT A
LOT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EVEN TO VAST MAJORITY OF STORMS WOULD BE
OF THE RUN OF THE MILL VARIETY.

ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REALLY WANE AFTER THE EVENING HOURS AS
DRIER AIR CONTINUES PRESS TOWARD THE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. WITH
THE RAIN THERE COULD BE SOME FOG IN THE SOUTH SO WE WILL ADD SOME TO
THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED RAIN TODAY.

AS FOR TOMORROW...MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL NOT BE A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.  HOWEVER...WITH YET ANOTHER IN THE STRING OF
NEVER ENDING SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WE WILL
LIKELY HAVE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE HIGH ELEVATION HEAT SOURCE. WITH MORE
SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE UPWARD TREND MORE SUNSHINE
AND INCREASING THICKNESSES BUT REMAIN NEAR TO SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

OVERALL THU NIGHT THROUGH THE WEAKEN...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST AS UPR
LVL RIDGE DOES NOT VARY MUCH IN POSITION THRU SAT...EXCEPT TO SLIGHTLY
MIGRATE EWD A FEW MILES...REMOVING THE FA FROM NW FLOW BY
SAT....THEN BROADENING AND FLATTENING SUN. AT LOWER LVLS...HEAT LOW
OVR THE DESERT SW REMAIN AND WILL KEEP PUMPING MONSOONAL MOISTURE
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN PERIODICALLY. WHILE IT WILL NOT BE A CONSTANT
STREAM OF MOISTURE OR KEEP PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...THE WRN MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH THE SRN MOST FA WILL BE
AFFECTED MOST THRU THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY...AS THE RIDGE WANDER
WWD...HEIGHTS WILL RECOVER AND TEMPS WILL WILL BEGIN A SLOW RISE
BACK TO SEASONABLY WARM. CONVECTIVE FORCING THRU THE WEEKEND WILL
BEST COME FROM THE MOUNTAINS FIRST AND MINOR UPR LVL DISTURBANCES
SECOND.

MON THRU WED...BEST CHCS IN THE EXTENDED FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR IN
THE MON/TUE TIMEFRAME...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO WED OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL OCCUR FOR SEVERAL REASONS...INCLUDING THE MOVEMENT OF
STRONG PVA THAT WILL GENERATE HIGH OVER THE SONORA DESERT THIS
WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A SMALL DISTURBANCE THAT SHOWS WEAKLY IN THE
WV IMAGERY OVR THE SRN BAJA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN INCREASED POSITIVE VORT AS IT MOVES OVR THE HEAT LOW AND UNDER
THE UPR HIGH...NWD MOVEMENT...AND POSSIBLY THE FORMATION OF A WEAK
UPR LOW BY SUN. THIS WILL THEN BE DRAWN UP INTO THE GREAT BASIN
THRU SUN WITH THE OF THE EASIER TO FCST UPSTREAM TROF KICKING OUT OF
AND AHEAD OF THE LARGE GULF OF AK  LOW. THESE CONDITIONS WILL THEN
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CWA BY MONDAY WITH A LARGE INCREASE IN DEEP
MOISTURE PHASING WITH A LITTLE BETTER UPR DYNAMICS IN ADDITION TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE LOW LVL BOUNDARIES LIKE A LEE LOW AND POSSIBLE
MID LVL FRONTOGENESIS. ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO FCST WAS TO RAISE
LOW TEMPS MON NIGHT AND TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS FOR TUE WITH SIGNIFICANT
INCREASES IN CLOUDINESS AFFECTING BOTH.
&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

MOST CONVECTION SHOULD END AT THE TAF SITES WEST OF THE DIVIDE BY
AROUND 3Z WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A FEW SPOTS COULD SEE PATCHY
FOG...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF KJAC...KPNA...KBPI AND KRKS BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREDOMINATE MOST OF TOMORROW WITH ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
RESTRICTED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND IN VICINITY OF KJAC.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SHOULD END WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE UP AND
OVER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY WITH THE MOST
NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER WESTERN WY AS FAR EAST AS THE
WESTERN EDGES OF THE CENTRAL BASINS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
RECOVER DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK BUT WILL REMAIN AT OR
BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS.
&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...BRAUN
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS





000
FXUS63 KUNR 302034
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
234 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
ABUNDANT TCU FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
STRONGER SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY OVER SASKATCHEWAN...MOVES THROUGH
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA.
GIVEN LOW CAPE/WEAK SHEAR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE FLOW SLOWLY...BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE...AND BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH MONDAY...THEN COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
ACCOMPANY THE HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
-TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL SD AND THE BLACK
HILLS AREA WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS IN THE HEAVIEST PRECIP.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13







000
FXUS63 KUNR 302034
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
234 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
ABUNDANT TCU FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
STRONGER SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY OVER SASKATCHEWAN...MOVES THROUGH
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA.
GIVEN LOW CAPE/WEAK SHEAR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE FLOW SLOWLY...BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE...AND BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH MONDAY...THEN COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
ACCOMPANY THE HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
-TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL SD AND THE BLACK
HILLS AREA WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS IN THE HEAVIEST PRECIP.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13







000
FXUS63 KUNR 302034
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
234 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
ABUNDANT TCU FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
STRONGER SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY OVER SASKATCHEWAN...MOVES THROUGH
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA.
GIVEN LOW CAPE/WEAK SHEAR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE FLOW SLOWLY...BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE...AND BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH MONDAY...THEN COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
ACCOMPANY THE HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
-TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL SD AND THE BLACK
HILLS AREA WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS IN THE HEAVIEST PRECIP.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13







000
FXUS63 KUNR 302034
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
234 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
ABUNDANT TCU FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
STRONGER SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY OVER SASKATCHEWAN...MOVES THROUGH
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA.
GIVEN LOW CAPE/WEAK SHEAR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE FLOW SLOWLY...BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE...AND BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH MONDAY...THEN COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
ACCOMPANY THE HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
-TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL SD AND THE BLACK
HILLS AREA WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS IN THE HEAVIEST PRECIP.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13







000
FXUS65 KCYS 301751
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1151 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL MAINLY ALONG THE I80
CORRIDOR FROM RAWLINS EASTWARD TO PINE BLUFFS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN ONE TENTH TO ONE HALF INCH NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ADDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON SINCE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY STILL BE OVER
CENTRAL WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY COME
TO AN END THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

A LARGE AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
THIS AM WITH GOOD LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARD
THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM NORTHEAST CO...WITH ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM SOUTHEAST WY INTO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS SHOULD KEEP LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN GOING
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. RAINFALL RATES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HAVE
BEEN BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR...SO HAVE NOT
BEEN SEEING ANYTHING PARTICULARLY HEAVY. MODELED SOUNDINGS FOR CYS
HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN HEAVY RAIN PARAMETERS WITH PWAT
VALUES CLOSER TO 1 INCH AND THE K-INDEX UNDER 30 AS OF 08Z. MOST
IMPORTANTLY...AIR MASS IS NOW MUCH MORE STABLE THAN IT WAS ON TUE
AFTN AND EVE. THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED...SO
WILL DROP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRIOR TO ITS SCHEDULED EXPIRATION
AT 12Z THIS AM. UPSLOPE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY AFTN AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LOST AS FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS SHIFT ACROSS
THE MIDWEST STATES AND MIDLVL PVA SPREADS INTO CO. SHOULD SEE THE
MAIN AREA OF PCPN GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE DAY. REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS AS BOTH
THE GFS AND NAM SHOW VIRTUALLY NO CAPE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT WILL
BE QUITE COOL TODAY...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND JUST E OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WITH PERSISTENT UPSLOPE KEEPING IT CLOUDY AND WET THROUGH AT
LEAST PEAK HEATING. HIGHS AROUND 60 FOR CYS WOULD PUT US CLOSE TO
A RECORD LOW MAXIMUM OF 59 F FOR THIS DATE.

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. H7 TEMPS INCREASE ANOTHER 5
TO 8 DEG C THROUGH FRI AFTN PER BOTH THE GFS AND NAM...AND MODEST
MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MILLIBARS SHOULD YIELD PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON
THU AND FRI WITH UPPER 80S RETURNING TO THE PANHANDLE. NO FURTHER
SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED AS THE OVERALL PATTERN WOULD FAVOR ANY
ACTIVITY TO BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A BIT
OF MIDLVL MOISTURE SPREADING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
ON FRI AFTN...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT. BELIEVE IT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED THOUGH GIVEN THE LACK
OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL FORCING MECHANISM...SO WENT AHEAD AND BROUGHT
POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOCATED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
AMPLIFY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BEFORE BEING FLATTENED AS THE
PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH THE AVAILABLE MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVR
THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM
FROM LOWER ELEVATIONS...INSTEAD CONFINING ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ABOVE 7000 FEET OVR THE SNOWY/SIERRA
MADRE/SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
SUMMERTIME NORMS OVR THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE AXIS AND REFLECTED
THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE CWA. H7 TEMPERATURE PROGS CLIMB TO
AROUND 12C ON SATURDAY...AND TO AROUND 14C FOR SUNDAY. HIGHER VALUES
WILL BE FOUND OVR THE WRN CWA...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES EAST.
THE RESULT WILL BE FOR HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE 70S AND 80S SATURDAY
AND 80S AND 90S FOR SUNDAY.

THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO NR THE FRONT RANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CWFA FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
FTR WITH THE ECMWF QUICKER AND STRONGER COMPARED TO THE GFS. HAVE
BOOSTED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS A RESULT MONDAY AFTERNOON
THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES RETURN TO VALUES SIMILAR THOSE SEEN
YESTERDAY. IF THIS PATTERN MATERIALIZES...THE COMBINATION OF THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND SLOW STEERING FLOW WILL AGAIN HEIGHTEN AT
LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING LATE MONDAY THRU TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOMEWHAT AS THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN.
SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS DRY TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND INTO SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AS WELL. THIS INCLUDES KRWL...KLAR...KCYS...AND KSNY.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FOR THESE LOCATIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A RETURN TO VFR ANTICIPATED BY THIS EVENING. THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING WILL REMAIN OBSCURED THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH
WILL KEEP VFR CIGS IN PLACE. WINDS OVERALL WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING MUCH OF CARBON COUNTY WHERE GUSTS
OF 20 TO 25 KTS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN
NE PANHANDLE. ANOTHER HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VERY COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AT CHEYENNE AND RAWLINS. COOLER CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH NEW MOISTURE WILL MITIGATE ANY NOTABLE FIRE WEATHER
HAZARDS. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER






000
FXUS65 KCYS 301751
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1151 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL MAINLY ALONG THE I80
CORRIDOR FROM RAWLINS EASTWARD TO PINE BLUFFS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN ONE TENTH TO ONE HALF INCH NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ADDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON SINCE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY STILL BE OVER
CENTRAL WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY COME
TO AN END THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

A LARGE AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
THIS AM WITH GOOD LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARD
THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM NORTHEAST CO...WITH ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM SOUTHEAST WY INTO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS SHOULD KEEP LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN GOING
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. RAINFALL RATES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HAVE
BEEN BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR...SO HAVE NOT
BEEN SEEING ANYTHING PARTICULARLY HEAVY. MODELED SOUNDINGS FOR CYS
HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN HEAVY RAIN PARAMETERS WITH PWAT
VALUES CLOSER TO 1 INCH AND THE K-INDEX UNDER 30 AS OF 08Z. MOST
IMPORTANTLY...AIR MASS IS NOW MUCH MORE STABLE THAN IT WAS ON TUE
AFTN AND EVE. THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED...SO
WILL DROP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRIOR TO ITS SCHEDULED EXPIRATION
AT 12Z THIS AM. UPSLOPE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY AFTN AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LOST AS FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS SHIFT ACROSS
THE MIDWEST STATES AND MIDLVL PVA SPREADS INTO CO. SHOULD SEE THE
MAIN AREA OF PCPN GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE DAY. REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS AS BOTH
THE GFS AND NAM SHOW VIRTUALLY NO CAPE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT WILL
BE QUITE COOL TODAY...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND JUST E OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WITH PERSISTENT UPSLOPE KEEPING IT CLOUDY AND WET THROUGH AT
LEAST PEAK HEATING. HIGHS AROUND 60 FOR CYS WOULD PUT US CLOSE TO
A RECORD LOW MAXIMUM OF 59 F FOR THIS DATE.

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. H7 TEMPS INCREASE ANOTHER 5
TO 8 DEG C THROUGH FRI AFTN PER BOTH THE GFS AND NAM...AND MODEST
MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MILLIBARS SHOULD YIELD PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON
THU AND FRI WITH UPPER 80S RETURNING TO THE PANHANDLE. NO FURTHER
SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED AS THE OVERALL PATTERN WOULD FAVOR ANY
ACTIVITY TO BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A BIT
OF MIDLVL MOISTURE SPREADING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
ON FRI AFTN...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT. BELIEVE IT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED THOUGH GIVEN THE LACK
OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL FORCING MECHANISM...SO WENT AHEAD AND BROUGHT
POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOCATED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
AMPLIFY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BEFORE BEING FLATTENED AS THE
PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH THE AVAILABLE MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVR
THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM
FROM LOWER ELEVATIONS...INSTEAD CONFINING ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ABOVE 7000 FEET OVR THE SNOWY/SIERRA
MADRE/SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
SUMMERTIME NORMS OVR THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE AXIS AND REFLECTED
THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE CWA. H7 TEMPERATURE PROGS CLIMB TO
AROUND 12C ON SATURDAY...AND TO AROUND 14C FOR SUNDAY. HIGHER VALUES
WILL BE FOUND OVR THE WRN CWA...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES EAST.
THE RESULT WILL BE FOR HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE 70S AND 80S SATURDAY
AND 80S AND 90S FOR SUNDAY.

THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO NR THE FRONT RANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CWFA FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
FTR WITH THE ECMWF QUICKER AND STRONGER COMPARED TO THE GFS. HAVE
BOOSTED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS A RESULT MONDAY AFTERNOON
THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES RETURN TO VALUES SIMILAR THOSE SEEN
YESTERDAY. IF THIS PATTERN MATERIALIZES...THE COMBINATION OF THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND SLOW STEERING FLOW WILL AGAIN HEIGHTEN AT
LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING LATE MONDAY THRU TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOMEWHAT AS THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN.
SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS DRY TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND INTO SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AS WELL. THIS INCLUDES KRWL...KLAR...KCYS...AND KSNY.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FOR THESE LOCATIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A RETURN TO VFR ANTICIPATED BY THIS EVENING. THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING WILL REMAIN OBSCURED THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH
WILL KEEP VFR CIGS IN PLACE. WINDS OVERALL WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING MUCH OF CARBON COUNTY WHERE GUSTS
OF 20 TO 25 KTS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN
NE PANHANDLE. ANOTHER HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VERY COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AT CHEYENNE AND RAWLINS. COOLER CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH NEW MOISTURE WILL MITIGATE ANY NOTABLE FIRE WEATHER
HAZARDS. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER







000
FXUS63 KUNR 301708
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1108 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE
RIDGE WILL INTERACT WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME.

HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THIS MORNING
FOR A FEW SHOWERS CURRENTLY WORKING SOUTHWARD OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...HOWEVER A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL
SURFACE HEATING AND WEAK COOLING ALOFT TO CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE SRN BLACK HILLS AND
THE ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND ALSO CLOSER TO
THE WAVE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA OVER
FAR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE CHANCES
SPREADING SOUTHWARD OVER THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA DURING THE DAY AS DIURNAL HEATING AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAA
ALOFT COMBINE TO INCREASE THE INSTABILITY. DRY AIR WILL BE FOUND
OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING WITH THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
EXPECT TO FALL INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE THERE ON THURSDAY
AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BUT MODELS
ARE INDICATING A GRADUAL BREAKDOWN AND SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES
PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES THIS WEEKEND WITH A BETTER CHANCE DEVELOPING
BY MIDWEEK WHEN A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES BEFORE COOLING A FEW
DEGREES MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED -TSRA
MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL SD AND THE BLACK HILLS
AREA WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS IN THE HEAVIEST PRECIP.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...13







000
FXUS65 KRIW 301708
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1108 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

UPPER CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE OVER THE IDAHO/WY BORDER ACDG TO
SATELLITE LOOP WITH THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER LINCOLN CO SW WY
ACDG TO RADAR. THESE CIRCULATIONS WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE
REMAINING STRATIFORM PRECIP BECOMES MORE FOCUSED PRIMARILY OVER
SWEETWATER AND SOUTHEAST NATRONA COUNTIES. THE UPPER CIRCULATION
WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE RED DESERT TODAY WITH THE MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION DRIFTING FROM NE UTAH TO NW CO. THE ASCT RAINFALL WILL
EXIT SOUTHERN WY AROUND MID DAY JUST AS FRESH CONVECTION FORMS OVER
NORTHWEST WY THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVAILING SURFACE WIND WILL BE
FROM THE EAST NORTH OF THE LOW...ESPECIALLY OVER SWEETWATER COUNTY
KEEPING US UNDER A RELATIVELY MILD AND MOIST AIRMASS BUT WARMER THAN
TUESDAY. ON THURSDAY...MORE CONVECTION WILL FORM MAINLY IN NORTHWEST
WY WHERE THE BEST LIFTED INDICES/CAPES WILL BE. THEN ON FRIDAY
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW WILL RIDE UP AND OVER THE STATIONARY RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES AND IS PROGGED TO BE OVER NW WY BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE CWA FRIDAY AFT/EVE. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RECOVER DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK BUT WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR
HIGH TEMPS.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WEEKEND LOOKS TO START WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEARLY OVERHEAD WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FORECAST TO BE IN THE WESTERN AND
ESPECIALLY NWRN MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DRIFT ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTH. GFS DRIES OUT THE AIRMASS
SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY FOR MAINLY WRN MTN STORMS. EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS
QUITE INTERESTING AGAIN WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF DECENT RAINFALL AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST OF US OPENING THE DOOR FOR
INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES. THE GFS HAS THE
MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE WEST MONDAY WITH SOME INCREASE EAST OF THE
DIVIDE BY EVENING. THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE HIGHER PW AIR OVER
THE ENTIRE CWFA MONDAY. THE GEM IS CLOSER IN TIMING TO THE GFS. ALL
THE MODELS SEEM TO BRING UP THE REMNANTS OF AN ELY WAVE ORIGINATING
ON THE BOTTOM OF THE 4-CORNERS HIGH FOR LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN BUT EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY MOIST AND UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF MORE
RAIN FOR A LARGE PART OF THE AREA. ECMWF IS SHOWING RAPID DRYING
TUESDAY IN A NW FLOW AS THE RIDGE REDEVELOPS TO OUR WEST. THE GFS IS
SLOWER TO DEVELOP THE NW FLOW...MORE WNW YET TUESDAY...WITH THE
REMNANT WAVE STILL HANGING OVER THE ERN PART OF THE AREA. STICKING
WITH SCT POPS YET TUESDAY BEFORE SOME DRYING OCCURS WEDNESDAY WITH
SCT POPS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND GENERALLY ISOLATED ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. DEPENDING ON EXACT TIMING THE WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO
BE SUNDAY AND POTENTIALLY MONDAY IF THE SLOWER MONSOONAL GFS TIMING
OCCURS. COOLER WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PCPN THEN TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REBOUND SOME WEDNESDAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/
IN THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
MAINLY OCCUR OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE
OVER THE FAR WEST AND WILL HAVE VCTS ONLY AT JAC TERMINAL FOR
NOW...WITH VCSH OVER THE REST OF THE TERMINALS WEST OF THE DIVIDE.
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH VCTS. DURING THE
EVENING...CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY WANE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT EASTERLY IN MOST AREAS TODAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BREEZY
EAST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS SWEETWATER COUNTY IMPACTING KRKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL EXIT SWEETWATER COUNTY
TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. SOON AFTERWARD...WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT EAST WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH TODAY ACROSS ZONE 279. THURSDAY
WILL BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN WYOMING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
RIDE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE
ROCKIES FRIDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER
WESTERN WY AS FAR EAST AS THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE CENTRAL BASINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK BUT WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON












000
FXUS63 KUNR 301708
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1108 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE
RIDGE WILL INTERACT WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME.

HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THIS MORNING
FOR A FEW SHOWERS CURRENTLY WORKING SOUTHWARD OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...HOWEVER A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL
SURFACE HEATING AND WEAK COOLING ALOFT TO CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE SRN BLACK HILLS AND
THE ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND ALSO CLOSER TO
THE WAVE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA OVER
FAR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE CHANCES
SPREADING SOUTHWARD OVER THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA DURING THE DAY AS DIURNAL HEATING AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAA
ALOFT COMBINE TO INCREASE THE INSTABILITY. DRY AIR WILL BE FOUND
OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING WITH THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
EXPECT TO FALL INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE THERE ON THURSDAY
AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BUT MODELS
ARE INDICATING A GRADUAL BREAKDOWN AND SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES
PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES THIS WEEKEND WITH A BETTER CHANCE DEVELOPING
BY MIDWEEK WHEN A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES BEFORE COOLING A FEW
DEGREES MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED -TSRA
MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL SD AND THE BLACK HILLS
AREA WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS IN THE HEAVIEST PRECIP.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...13






000
FXUS65 KRIW 301708
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1108 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

UPPER CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE OVER THE IDAHO/WY BORDER ACDG TO
SATELLITE LOOP WITH THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER LINCOLN CO SW WY
ACDG TO RADAR. THESE CIRCULATIONS WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE
REMAINING STRATIFORM PRECIP BECOMES MORE FOCUSED PRIMARILY OVER
SWEETWATER AND SOUTHEAST NATRONA COUNTIES. THE UPPER CIRCULATION
WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE RED DESERT TODAY WITH THE MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION DRIFTING FROM NE UTAH TO NW CO. THE ASCT RAINFALL WILL
EXIT SOUTHERN WY AROUND MID DAY JUST AS FRESH CONVECTION FORMS OVER
NORTHWEST WY THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVAILING SURFACE WIND WILL BE
FROM THE EAST NORTH OF THE LOW...ESPECIALLY OVER SWEETWATER COUNTY
KEEPING US UNDER A RELATIVELY MILD AND MOIST AIRMASS BUT WARMER THAN
TUESDAY. ON THURSDAY...MORE CONVECTION WILL FORM MAINLY IN NORTHWEST
WY WHERE THE BEST LIFTED INDICES/CAPES WILL BE. THEN ON FRIDAY
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW WILL RIDE UP AND OVER THE STATIONARY RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES AND IS PROGGED TO BE OVER NW WY BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE CWA FRIDAY AFT/EVE. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RECOVER DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK BUT WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR
HIGH TEMPS.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WEEKEND LOOKS TO START WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEARLY OVERHEAD WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FORECAST TO BE IN THE WESTERN AND
ESPECIALLY NWRN MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DRIFT ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTH. GFS DRIES OUT THE AIRMASS
SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY FOR MAINLY WRN MTN STORMS. EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS
QUITE INTERESTING AGAIN WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF DECENT RAINFALL AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST OF US OPENING THE DOOR FOR
INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES. THE GFS HAS THE
MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE WEST MONDAY WITH SOME INCREASE EAST OF THE
DIVIDE BY EVENING. THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE HIGHER PW AIR OVER
THE ENTIRE CWFA MONDAY. THE GEM IS CLOSER IN TIMING TO THE GFS. ALL
THE MODELS SEEM TO BRING UP THE REMNANTS OF AN ELY WAVE ORIGINATING
ON THE BOTTOM OF THE 4-CORNERS HIGH FOR LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN BUT EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY MOIST AND UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF MORE
RAIN FOR A LARGE PART OF THE AREA. ECMWF IS SHOWING RAPID DRYING
TUESDAY IN A NW FLOW AS THE RIDGE REDEVELOPS TO OUR WEST. THE GFS IS
SLOWER TO DEVELOP THE NW FLOW...MORE WNW YET TUESDAY...WITH THE
REMNANT WAVE STILL HANGING OVER THE ERN PART OF THE AREA. STICKING
WITH SCT POPS YET TUESDAY BEFORE SOME DRYING OCCURS WEDNESDAY WITH
SCT POPS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND GENERALLY ISOLATED ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. DEPENDING ON EXACT TIMING THE WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO
BE SUNDAY AND POTENTIALLY MONDAY IF THE SLOWER MONSOONAL GFS TIMING
OCCURS. COOLER WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PCPN THEN TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REBOUND SOME WEDNESDAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/
IN THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
MAINLY OCCUR OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE
OVER THE FAR WEST AND WILL HAVE VCTS ONLY AT JAC TERMINAL FOR
NOW...WITH VCSH OVER THE REST OF THE TERMINALS WEST OF THE DIVIDE.
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH VCTS. DURING THE
EVENING...CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY WANE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT EASTERLY IN MOST AREAS TODAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BREEZY
EAST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS SWEETWATER COUNTY IMPACTING KRKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL EXIT SWEETWATER COUNTY
TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. SOON AFTERWARD...WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT EAST WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH TODAY ACROSS ZONE 279. THURSDAY
WILL BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN WYOMING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
RIDE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE
ROCKIES FRIDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER
WESTERN WY AS FAR EAST AS THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE CENTRAL BASINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK BUT WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON













000
FXUS65 KCYS 301546
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
946 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL MAINLY ALONG THE I80
CORRIDOR FROM RAWLINS EASTWARD TO PINE BLUFFS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN ONE TENTH TO ONE HALF INCH NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ADDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON SINCE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY STILL BE OVER
CENTRAL WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY COME
TO AN END THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

A LARGE AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
THIS AM WITH GOOD LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARD
THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM NORTHEAST CO...WITH ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM SOUTHEAST WY INTO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS SHOULD KEEP LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN GOING
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. RAINFALL RATES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HAVE
BEEN BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR...SO HAVE NOT
BEEN SEEING ANYTHING PARTICULARLY HEAVY. MODELED SOUNDINGS FOR CYS
HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN HEAVY RAIN PARAMETERS WITH PWAT
VALUES CLOSER TO 1 INCH AND THE K-INDEX UNDER 30 AS OF 08Z. MOST
IMPORTANTLY...AIR MASS IS NOW MUCH MORE STABLE THAN IT WAS ON TUE
AFTN AND EVE. THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED...SO
WILL DROP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRIOR TO ITS SCHEDULED EXPIRATION
AT 12Z THIS AM. UPSLOPE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY AFTN AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LOST AS FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS SHIFT ACROSS
THE MIDWEST STATES AND MIDLVL PVA SPREADS INTO CO. SHOULD SEE THE
MAIN AREA OF PCPN GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE DAY. REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS AS BOTH
THE GFS AND NAM SHOW VIRTUALLY NO CAPE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT WILL
BE QUITE COOL TODAY...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND JUST E OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WITH PERSISTENT UPSLOPE KEEPING IT CLOUDY AND WET THROUGH AT
LEAST PEAK HEATING. HIGHS AROUND 60 FOR CYS WOULD PUT US CLOSE TO
A RECORD LOW MAXIMUM OF 59 F FOR THIS DATE.

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. H7 TEMPS INCREASE ANOTHER 5
TO 8 DEG C THROUGH FRI AFTN PER BOTH THE GFS AND NAM...AND MODEST
MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MILLIBARS SHOULD YIELD PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON
THU AND FRI WITH UPPER 80S RETURNING TO THE PANHANDLE. NO FURTHER
SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED AS THE OVERALL PATTERN WOULD FAVOR ANY
ACTIVITY TO BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A BIT
OF MIDLVL MOISTURE SPREADING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
ON FRI AFTN...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT. BELIEVE IT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED THOUGH GIVEN THE LACK
OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL FORCING MECHANISM...SO WENT AHEAD AND BROUGHT
POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOCATED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
AMPLIFY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BEFORE BEING FLATTENED AS THE
PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH THE AVAILABLE MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVR
THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM
FROM LOWER ELEVATIONS...INSTEAD CONFINING ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ABOVE 7000 FEET OVR THE SNOWY/SIERRA
MADRE/SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
SUMMERTIME NORMS OVR THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE AXIS AND REFLECTED
THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE CWA. H7 TEMPERATURE PROGS CLIMB TO
AROUND 12C ON SATURDAY...AND TO AROUND 14C FOR SUNDAY. HIGHER VALUES
WILL BE FOUND OVR THE WRN CWA...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES EAST.
THE RESULT WILL BE FOR HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE 70S AND 80S SATURDAY
AND 80S AND 90S FOR SUNDAY.

THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO NR THE FRONT RANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CWFA FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
FTR WITH THE ECMWF QUICKER AND STRONGER COMPARED TO THE GFS. HAVE
BOOSTED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS A RESULT MONDAY AFTERNOON
THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES RETURN TO VALUES SIMILAR THOSE SEEN
YESTERDAY. IF THIS PATTERN MATERIALIZES...THE COMBINATION OF THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND SLOW STEERING FLOW WILL AGAIN HEIGHTEN AT
LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING LATE MONDAY THRU TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOMEWHAT AS THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN.
SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS DRY TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING FOR MOST
TERMINALS AS LOW STRATUS AND -RA CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVR THE WRN NEBRASKA LOCATIONS WHERE RAINS HAVE
BEEN MORE SPOTTY AND LIGHTER. ALTHOUGH LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...EXPECT SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT BY
AROUND MIDDAY...THOUGH MVFR CIGS ARE STILL EXPECTED. THIS LOW
STRATUS WILL OBSCURE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS TODAY. CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH A
RETURN TO VFR ANTICIPATED BY THIS EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN
NE PANHANDLE. ANOTHER HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VERY COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AT CHEYENNE AND RAWLINS. COOLER CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH NEW MOISTURE WILL MITIGATE ANY NOTABLE FIRE WEATHER
HAZARDS. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...HAHN
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER










000
FXUS65 KCYS 301546
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
946 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL MAINLY ALONG THE I80
CORRIDOR FROM RAWLINS EASTWARD TO PINE BLUFFS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN ONE TENTH TO ONE HALF INCH NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ADDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON SINCE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY STILL BE OVER
CENTRAL WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY COME
TO AN END THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

A LARGE AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
THIS AM WITH GOOD LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARD
THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM NORTHEAST CO...WITH ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM SOUTHEAST WY INTO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS SHOULD KEEP LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN GOING
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. RAINFALL RATES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HAVE
BEEN BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR...SO HAVE NOT
BEEN SEEING ANYTHING PARTICULARLY HEAVY. MODELED SOUNDINGS FOR CYS
HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN HEAVY RAIN PARAMETERS WITH PWAT
VALUES CLOSER TO 1 INCH AND THE K-INDEX UNDER 30 AS OF 08Z. MOST
IMPORTANTLY...AIR MASS IS NOW MUCH MORE STABLE THAN IT WAS ON TUE
AFTN AND EVE. THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED...SO
WILL DROP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRIOR TO ITS SCHEDULED EXPIRATION
AT 12Z THIS AM. UPSLOPE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY AFTN AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LOST AS FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS SHIFT ACROSS
THE MIDWEST STATES AND MIDLVL PVA SPREADS INTO CO. SHOULD SEE THE
MAIN AREA OF PCPN GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE DAY. REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS AS BOTH
THE GFS AND NAM SHOW VIRTUALLY NO CAPE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT WILL
BE QUITE COOL TODAY...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND JUST E OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WITH PERSISTENT UPSLOPE KEEPING IT CLOUDY AND WET THROUGH AT
LEAST PEAK HEATING. HIGHS AROUND 60 FOR CYS WOULD PUT US CLOSE TO
A RECORD LOW MAXIMUM OF 59 F FOR THIS DATE.

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. H7 TEMPS INCREASE ANOTHER 5
TO 8 DEG C THROUGH FRI AFTN PER BOTH THE GFS AND NAM...AND MODEST
MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MILLIBARS SHOULD YIELD PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON
THU AND FRI WITH UPPER 80S RETURNING TO THE PANHANDLE. NO FURTHER
SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED AS THE OVERALL PATTERN WOULD FAVOR ANY
ACTIVITY TO BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A BIT
OF MIDLVL MOISTURE SPREADING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
ON FRI AFTN...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT. BELIEVE IT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED THOUGH GIVEN THE LACK
OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL FORCING MECHANISM...SO WENT AHEAD AND BROUGHT
POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOCATED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
AMPLIFY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BEFORE BEING FLATTENED AS THE
PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH THE AVAILABLE MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVR
THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM
FROM LOWER ELEVATIONS...INSTEAD CONFINING ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ABOVE 7000 FEET OVR THE SNOWY/SIERRA
MADRE/SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
SUMMERTIME NORMS OVR THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE AXIS AND REFLECTED
THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE CWA. H7 TEMPERATURE PROGS CLIMB TO
AROUND 12C ON SATURDAY...AND TO AROUND 14C FOR SUNDAY. HIGHER VALUES
WILL BE FOUND OVR THE WRN CWA...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES EAST.
THE RESULT WILL BE FOR HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE 70S AND 80S SATURDAY
AND 80S AND 90S FOR SUNDAY.

THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO NR THE FRONT RANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CWFA FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
FTR WITH THE ECMWF QUICKER AND STRONGER COMPARED TO THE GFS. HAVE
BOOSTED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS A RESULT MONDAY AFTERNOON
THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES RETURN TO VALUES SIMILAR THOSE SEEN
YESTERDAY. IF THIS PATTERN MATERIALIZES...THE COMBINATION OF THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND SLOW STEERING FLOW WILL AGAIN HEIGHTEN AT
LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING LATE MONDAY THRU TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOMEWHAT AS THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN.
SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS DRY TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING FOR MOST
TERMINALS AS LOW STRATUS AND -RA CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVR THE WRN NEBRASKA LOCATIONS WHERE RAINS HAVE
BEEN MORE SPOTTY AND LIGHTER. ALTHOUGH LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...EXPECT SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT BY
AROUND MIDDAY...THOUGH MVFR CIGS ARE STILL EXPECTED. THIS LOW
STRATUS WILL OBSCURE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS TODAY. CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH A
RETURN TO VFR ANTICIPATED BY THIS EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN
NE PANHANDLE. ANOTHER HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VERY COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AT CHEYENNE AND RAWLINS. COOLER CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH NEW MOISTURE WILL MITIGATE ANY NOTABLE FIRE WEATHER
HAZARDS. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...HAHN
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER










000
FXUS65 KCYS 301546
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
946 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL MAINLY ALONG THE I80
CORRIDOR FROM RAWLINS EASTWARD TO PINE BLUFFS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN ONE TENTH TO ONE HALF INCH NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ADDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON SINCE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY STILL BE OVER
CENTRAL WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY COME
TO AN END THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

A LARGE AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
THIS AM WITH GOOD LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARD
THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM NORTHEAST CO...WITH ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM SOUTHEAST WY INTO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS SHOULD KEEP LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN GOING
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. RAINFALL RATES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HAVE
BEEN BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR...SO HAVE NOT
BEEN SEEING ANYTHING PARTICULARLY HEAVY. MODELED SOUNDINGS FOR CYS
HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN HEAVY RAIN PARAMETERS WITH PWAT
VALUES CLOSER TO 1 INCH AND THE K-INDEX UNDER 30 AS OF 08Z. MOST
IMPORTANTLY...AIR MASS IS NOW MUCH MORE STABLE THAN IT WAS ON TUE
AFTN AND EVE. THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED...SO
WILL DROP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRIOR TO ITS SCHEDULED EXPIRATION
AT 12Z THIS AM. UPSLOPE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY AFTN AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LOST AS FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS SHIFT ACROSS
THE MIDWEST STATES AND MIDLVL PVA SPREADS INTO CO. SHOULD SEE THE
MAIN AREA OF PCPN GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE DAY. REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS AS BOTH
THE GFS AND NAM SHOW VIRTUALLY NO CAPE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT WILL
BE QUITE COOL TODAY...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND JUST E OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WITH PERSISTENT UPSLOPE KEEPING IT CLOUDY AND WET THROUGH AT
LEAST PEAK HEATING. HIGHS AROUND 60 FOR CYS WOULD PUT US CLOSE TO
A RECORD LOW MAXIMUM OF 59 F FOR THIS DATE.

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. H7 TEMPS INCREASE ANOTHER 5
TO 8 DEG C THROUGH FRI AFTN PER BOTH THE GFS AND NAM...AND MODEST
MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MILLIBARS SHOULD YIELD PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON
THU AND FRI WITH UPPER 80S RETURNING TO THE PANHANDLE. NO FURTHER
SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED AS THE OVERALL PATTERN WOULD FAVOR ANY
ACTIVITY TO BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A BIT
OF MIDLVL MOISTURE SPREADING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
ON FRI AFTN...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT. BELIEVE IT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED THOUGH GIVEN THE LACK
OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL FORCING MECHANISM...SO WENT AHEAD AND BROUGHT
POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOCATED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
AMPLIFY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BEFORE BEING FLATTENED AS THE
PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH THE AVAILABLE MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVR
THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM
FROM LOWER ELEVATIONS...INSTEAD CONFINING ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ABOVE 7000 FEET OVR THE SNOWY/SIERRA
MADRE/SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
SUMMERTIME NORMS OVR THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE AXIS AND REFLECTED
THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE CWA. H7 TEMPERATURE PROGS CLIMB TO
AROUND 12C ON SATURDAY...AND TO AROUND 14C FOR SUNDAY. HIGHER VALUES
WILL BE FOUND OVR THE WRN CWA...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES EAST.
THE RESULT WILL BE FOR HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE 70S AND 80S SATURDAY
AND 80S AND 90S FOR SUNDAY.

THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO NR THE FRONT RANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CWFA FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
FTR WITH THE ECMWF QUICKER AND STRONGER COMPARED TO THE GFS. HAVE
BOOSTED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS A RESULT MONDAY AFTERNOON
THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES RETURN TO VALUES SIMILAR THOSE SEEN
YESTERDAY. IF THIS PATTERN MATERIALIZES...THE COMBINATION OF THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND SLOW STEERING FLOW WILL AGAIN HEIGHTEN AT
LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING LATE MONDAY THRU TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOMEWHAT AS THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN.
SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS DRY TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING FOR MOST
TERMINALS AS LOW STRATUS AND -RA CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVR THE WRN NEBRASKA LOCATIONS WHERE RAINS HAVE
BEEN MORE SPOTTY AND LIGHTER. ALTHOUGH LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...EXPECT SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT BY
AROUND MIDDAY...THOUGH MVFR CIGS ARE STILL EXPECTED. THIS LOW
STRATUS WILL OBSCURE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS TODAY. CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH A
RETURN TO VFR ANTICIPATED BY THIS EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN
NE PANHANDLE. ANOTHER HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VERY COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AT CHEYENNE AND RAWLINS. COOLER CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH NEW MOISTURE WILL MITIGATE ANY NOTABLE FIRE WEATHER
HAZARDS. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...HAHN
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER










000
FXUS65 KCYS 301546
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
946 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL MAINLY ALONG THE I80
CORRIDOR FROM RAWLINS EASTWARD TO PINE BLUFFS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN ONE TENTH TO ONE HALF INCH NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ADDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON SINCE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY STILL BE OVER
CENTRAL WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY COME
TO AN END THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

A LARGE AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
THIS AM WITH GOOD LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARD
THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM NORTHEAST CO...WITH ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM SOUTHEAST WY INTO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS SHOULD KEEP LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN GOING
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. RAINFALL RATES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HAVE
BEEN BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR...SO HAVE NOT
BEEN SEEING ANYTHING PARTICULARLY HEAVY. MODELED SOUNDINGS FOR CYS
HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN HEAVY RAIN PARAMETERS WITH PWAT
VALUES CLOSER TO 1 INCH AND THE K-INDEX UNDER 30 AS OF 08Z. MOST
IMPORTANTLY...AIR MASS IS NOW MUCH MORE STABLE THAN IT WAS ON TUE
AFTN AND EVE. THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED...SO
WILL DROP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRIOR TO ITS SCHEDULED EXPIRATION
AT 12Z THIS AM. UPSLOPE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY AFTN AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LOST AS FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS SHIFT ACROSS
THE MIDWEST STATES AND MIDLVL PVA SPREADS INTO CO. SHOULD SEE THE
MAIN AREA OF PCPN GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE DAY. REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS AS BOTH
THE GFS AND NAM SHOW VIRTUALLY NO CAPE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT WILL
BE QUITE COOL TODAY...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND JUST E OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WITH PERSISTENT UPSLOPE KEEPING IT CLOUDY AND WET THROUGH AT
LEAST PEAK HEATING. HIGHS AROUND 60 FOR CYS WOULD PUT US CLOSE TO
A RECORD LOW MAXIMUM OF 59 F FOR THIS DATE.

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. H7 TEMPS INCREASE ANOTHER 5
TO 8 DEG C THROUGH FRI AFTN PER BOTH THE GFS AND NAM...AND MODEST
MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MILLIBARS SHOULD YIELD PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON
THU AND FRI WITH UPPER 80S RETURNING TO THE PANHANDLE. NO FURTHER
SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED AS THE OVERALL PATTERN WOULD FAVOR ANY
ACTIVITY TO BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A BIT
OF MIDLVL MOISTURE SPREADING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
ON FRI AFTN...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT. BELIEVE IT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED THOUGH GIVEN THE LACK
OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL FORCING MECHANISM...SO WENT AHEAD AND BROUGHT
POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOCATED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
AMPLIFY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BEFORE BEING FLATTENED AS THE
PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH THE AVAILABLE MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVR
THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM
FROM LOWER ELEVATIONS...INSTEAD CONFINING ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ABOVE 7000 FEET OVR THE SNOWY/SIERRA
MADRE/SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
SUMMERTIME NORMS OVR THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE AXIS AND REFLECTED
THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE CWA. H7 TEMPERATURE PROGS CLIMB TO
AROUND 12C ON SATURDAY...AND TO AROUND 14C FOR SUNDAY. HIGHER VALUES
WILL BE FOUND OVR THE WRN CWA...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES EAST.
THE RESULT WILL BE FOR HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE 70S AND 80S SATURDAY
AND 80S AND 90S FOR SUNDAY.

THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO NR THE FRONT RANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CWFA FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
FTR WITH THE ECMWF QUICKER AND STRONGER COMPARED TO THE GFS. HAVE
BOOSTED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS A RESULT MONDAY AFTERNOON
THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES RETURN TO VALUES SIMILAR THOSE SEEN
YESTERDAY. IF THIS PATTERN MATERIALIZES...THE COMBINATION OF THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND SLOW STEERING FLOW WILL AGAIN HEIGHTEN AT
LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING LATE MONDAY THRU TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOMEWHAT AS THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN.
SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS DRY TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING FOR MOST
TERMINALS AS LOW STRATUS AND -RA CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVR THE WRN NEBRASKA LOCATIONS WHERE RAINS HAVE
BEEN MORE SPOTTY AND LIGHTER. ALTHOUGH LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...EXPECT SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT BY
AROUND MIDDAY...THOUGH MVFR CIGS ARE STILL EXPECTED. THIS LOW
STRATUS WILL OBSCURE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS TODAY. CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH A
RETURN TO VFR ANTICIPATED BY THIS EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN
NE PANHANDLE. ANOTHER HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VERY COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AT CHEYENNE AND RAWLINS. COOLER CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH NEW MOISTURE WILL MITIGATE ANY NOTABLE FIRE WEATHER
HAZARDS. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...HAHN
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER










000
FXUS63 KUNR 301158
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
558 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE
RIDGE WILL INTERACT WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME.

HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THIS MORNING
FOR A FEW SHOWERS CURRENTLY WORKING SOUTHWARD OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...HOWEVER A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL
SURFACE HEATING AND WEAK COOLING ALOFT TO CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE SRN BLACK HILLS AND
THE ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND ALSO CLOSER TO
THE WAVE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA OVER
FAR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE CHANCES
SPREADING SOUTHWARD OVER THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA DURING THE DAY AS DIURNAL HEATING AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAA
ALOFT COMBINE TO INCREASE THE INSTABILITY. DRY AIR WILL BE FOUND
OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING WITH THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
EXPECT TO FALL INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE THERE ON THURSDAY
AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BUT MODELS
ARE INDICATING A GRADUAL BREAKDOWN AND SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES
PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES THIS WEEKEND WITH A BETTER CHANCE DEVELOPING
BY MIDWEEK WHEN A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES BEFORE COOLING A FEW
DEGREES MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 556 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED -TSRA
MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD WITH LOCAL MVFR
CIGS IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...CARPENTER







000
FXUS63 KUNR 301158
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
558 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE
RIDGE WILL INTERACT WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME.

HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THIS MORNING
FOR A FEW SHOWERS CURRENTLY WORKING SOUTHWARD OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...HOWEVER A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL
SURFACE HEATING AND WEAK COOLING ALOFT TO CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE SRN BLACK HILLS AND
THE ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND ALSO CLOSER TO
THE WAVE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA OVER
FAR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE CHANCES
SPREADING SOUTHWARD OVER THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA DURING THE DAY AS DIURNAL HEATING AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAA
ALOFT COMBINE TO INCREASE THE INSTABILITY. DRY AIR WILL BE FOUND
OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING WITH THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
EXPECT TO FALL INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE THERE ON THURSDAY
AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BUT MODELS
ARE INDICATING A GRADUAL BREAKDOWN AND SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES
PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES THIS WEEKEND WITH A BETTER CHANCE DEVELOPING
BY MIDWEEK WHEN A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES BEFORE COOLING A FEW
DEGREES MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 556 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED -TSRA
MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD WITH LOCAL MVFR
CIGS IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...CARPENTER







000
FXUS63 KUNR 301158
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
558 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE
RIDGE WILL INTERACT WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME.

HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THIS MORNING
FOR A FEW SHOWERS CURRENTLY WORKING SOUTHWARD OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...HOWEVER A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL
SURFACE HEATING AND WEAK COOLING ALOFT TO CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE SRN BLACK HILLS AND
THE ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND ALSO CLOSER TO
THE WAVE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA OVER
FAR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE CHANCES
SPREADING SOUTHWARD OVER THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA DURING THE DAY AS DIURNAL HEATING AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAA
ALOFT COMBINE TO INCREASE THE INSTABILITY. DRY AIR WILL BE FOUND
OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING WITH THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
EXPECT TO FALL INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE THERE ON THURSDAY
AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BUT MODELS
ARE INDICATING A GRADUAL BREAKDOWN AND SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES
PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES THIS WEEKEND WITH A BETTER CHANCE DEVELOPING
BY MIDWEEK WHEN A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES BEFORE COOLING A FEW
DEGREES MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 556 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED -TSRA
MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD WITH LOCAL MVFR
CIGS IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...CARPENTER







000
FXUS63 KUNR 301158
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
558 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE
RIDGE WILL INTERACT WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME.

HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THIS MORNING
FOR A FEW SHOWERS CURRENTLY WORKING SOUTHWARD OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...HOWEVER A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL
SURFACE HEATING AND WEAK COOLING ALOFT TO CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE SRN BLACK HILLS AND
THE ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND ALSO CLOSER TO
THE WAVE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA OVER
FAR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE CHANCES
SPREADING SOUTHWARD OVER THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA DURING THE DAY AS DIURNAL HEATING AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAA
ALOFT COMBINE TO INCREASE THE INSTABILITY. DRY AIR WILL BE FOUND
OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING WITH THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
EXPECT TO FALL INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE THERE ON THURSDAY
AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BUT MODELS
ARE INDICATING A GRADUAL BREAKDOWN AND SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES
PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES THIS WEEKEND WITH A BETTER CHANCE DEVELOPING
BY MIDWEEK WHEN A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES BEFORE COOLING A FEW
DEGREES MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 556 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED -TSRA
MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD WITH LOCAL MVFR
CIGS IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...CARPENTER







000
FXUS65 KCYS 300924
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
324 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

A LARGE AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
THIS AM WITH GOOD LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARD
THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM NORTHEAST CO...WITH ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM SOUTHEAST WY INTO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS SHOULD KEEP LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN GOING
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. RAINFALL RATES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HAVE
BEEN BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR...SO HAVE NOT
BEEN SEEING ANYTHING PARTICULARLY HEAVY. MODELED SOUNDINGS FOR CYS
HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN HEAVY RAIN PARAMETERS WITH PWAT
VALUES CLOSER TO 1 INCH AND THE K-INDEX UNDER 30 AS OF 08Z. MOST
IMPORTANTLY...AIR MASS IS NOW MUCH MORE STABLE THAN IT WAS ON TUE
AFTN AND EVE. THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED...SO
WILL DROP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRIOR TO ITS SCHEDULED EXPIRATION
AT 12Z THIS AM. UPSLOPE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY AFTN AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LOST AS FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS SHIFT ACROSS
THE MIDWEST STATES AND MIDLVL PVA SPREADS INTO CO. SHOULD SEE THE
MAIN AREA OF PCPN GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE DAY. REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS AS BOTH
THE GFS AND NAM SHOW VIRTUALLY NO CAPE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT WILL
BE QUITE COOL TODAY...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND JUST E OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WITH PERSISTENT UPSLOPE KEEPING IT CLOUDY AND WET THROUGH AT
LEAST PEAK HEATING. HIGHS AROUND 60 FOR CYS WOULD PUT US CLOSE TO
A RECORD LOW MAXIMUM OF 59 F FOR THIS DATE.

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. H7 TEMPS INCREASE ANOTHER 5
TO 8 DEG C THROUGH FRI AFTN PER BOTH THE GFS AND NAM...AND MODEST
MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MILLIBARS SHOULD YIELD PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON
THU AND FRI WITH UPPER 80S RETURNING TO THE PANHANDLE. NO FURTHER
SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED AS THE OVERALL PATTERN WOULD FAVOR ANY
ACTIVITY TO BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A BIT
OF MIDLVL MOISTURE SPREADING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
ON FRI AFTN...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT. BELIEVE IT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED THOUGH GIVEN THE LACK
OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL FORCING MECHANISM...SO WENT AHEAD AND BROUGHT
POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOCATED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
AMPLIFY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BEFORE BEING FLATTENED AS THE
PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH THE AVAILABLE MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVR
THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM
FROM LOWER ELEVATIONS...INSTEAD CONFINING ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ABOVE 7000 FEET OVR THE SNOWY/SIERRA
MADRE/SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
SUMMERTIME NORMS OVR THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE AXIS AND REFLECTED
THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE CWA. H7 TEMPERATURE PROGS CLIMB TO
AROUND 12C ON SATURDAY...AND TO AROUND 14C FOR SUNDAY. HIGHER VALUES
WILL BE FOUND OVR THE WRN CWA...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES EAST.
THE RESULT WILL BE FOR HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE 70S AND 80S SATURDAY
AND 80S AND 90S FOR SUNDAY.

THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO NR THE FRONT RANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CWFA FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
FTR WITH THE ECMWF QUICKER AND STRONGER COMPARED TO THE GFS. HAVE
BOOSTED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS A RESULT MONDAY AFTERNOON
THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES RETURN TO VALUES SIMILAR THOSE SEEN
YESTERDAY. IF THIS PATTERN MATERIALIZES...THE COMBINATION OF THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND SLOW STEERING FLOW WILL AGAIN HEIGHTEN AT
LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING LATE MONDAY THRU TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOMEWHAT AS THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN.
SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS DRY TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING FOR MOST
TERMINALS AS LOW STRATUS AND -RA CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVR THE WRN NEBRASKA LOCATIONS WHERE RAINS HAVE
BEEN MORE SPOTTY AND LIGHTER. ALTHOUGH LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...EXPECT SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT BY
AROUND MIDDAY...THOUGH MVFR CIGS ARE STILL EXPECTED. THIS LOW
STRATUS WILL OBSCURE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS TODAY. CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH A
RETURN TO VFR ANTICIPATED BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN
NE PANHANDLE. ANOTHER HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VERY COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AT CHEYENNE AND RAWLINS. COOLER CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH NEW MOISTURE WILL MITIGATE ANY NOTABLE FIRE WEATHER
HAZARDS. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...HAHN
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER




000
FXUS65 KCYS 300924
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
324 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

A LARGE AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
THIS AM WITH GOOD LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARD
THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM NORTHEAST CO...WITH ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM SOUTHEAST WY INTO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS SHOULD KEEP LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN GOING
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. RAINFALL RATES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HAVE
BEEN BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR...SO HAVE NOT
BEEN SEEING ANYTHING PARTICULARLY HEAVY. MODELED SOUNDINGS FOR CYS
HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN HEAVY RAIN PARAMETERS WITH PWAT
VALUES CLOSER TO 1 INCH AND THE K-INDEX UNDER 30 AS OF 08Z. MOST
IMPORTANTLY...AIR MASS IS NOW MUCH MORE STABLE THAN IT WAS ON TUE
AFTN AND EVE. THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED...SO
WILL DROP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRIOR TO ITS SCHEDULED EXPIRATION
AT 12Z THIS AM. UPSLOPE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY AFTN AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LOST AS FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS SHIFT ACROSS
THE MIDWEST STATES AND MIDLVL PVA SPREADS INTO CO. SHOULD SEE THE
MAIN AREA OF PCPN GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE DAY. REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS AS BOTH
THE GFS AND NAM SHOW VIRTUALLY NO CAPE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT WILL
BE QUITE COOL TODAY...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND JUST E OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WITH PERSISTENT UPSLOPE KEEPING IT CLOUDY AND WET THROUGH AT
LEAST PEAK HEATING. HIGHS AROUND 60 FOR CYS WOULD PUT US CLOSE TO
A RECORD LOW MAXIMUM OF 59 F FOR THIS DATE.

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. H7 TEMPS INCREASE ANOTHER 5
TO 8 DEG C THROUGH FRI AFTN PER BOTH THE GFS AND NAM...AND MODEST
MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MILLIBARS SHOULD YIELD PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON
THU AND FRI WITH UPPER 80S RETURNING TO THE PANHANDLE. NO FURTHER
SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED AS THE OVERALL PATTERN WOULD FAVOR ANY
ACTIVITY TO BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A BIT
OF MIDLVL MOISTURE SPREADING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
ON FRI AFTN...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT. BELIEVE IT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED THOUGH GIVEN THE LACK
OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL FORCING MECHANISM...SO WENT AHEAD AND BROUGHT
POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOCATED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
AMPLIFY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BEFORE BEING FLATTENED AS THE
PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH THE AVAILABLE MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVR
THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM
FROM LOWER ELEVATIONS...INSTEAD CONFINING ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ABOVE 7000 FEET OVR THE SNOWY/SIERRA
MADRE/SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
SUMMERTIME NORMS OVR THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE AXIS AND REFLECTED
THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE CWA. H7 TEMPERATURE PROGS CLIMB TO
AROUND 12C ON SATURDAY...AND TO AROUND 14C FOR SUNDAY. HIGHER VALUES
WILL BE FOUND OVR THE WRN CWA...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES EAST.
THE RESULT WILL BE FOR HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE 70S AND 80S SATURDAY
AND 80S AND 90S FOR SUNDAY.

THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO NR THE FRONT RANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CWFA FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
FTR WITH THE ECMWF QUICKER AND STRONGER COMPARED TO THE GFS. HAVE
BOOSTED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS A RESULT MONDAY AFTERNOON
THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES RETURN TO VALUES SIMILAR THOSE SEEN
YESTERDAY. IF THIS PATTERN MATERIALIZES...THE COMBINATION OF THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND SLOW STEERING FLOW WILL AGAIN HEIGHTEN AT
LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING LATE MONDAY THRU TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOMEWHAT AS THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN.
SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS DRY TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING FOR MOST
TERMINALS AS LOW STRATUS AND -RA CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVR THE WRN NEBRASKA LOCATIONS WHERE RAINS HAVE
BEEN MORE SPOTTY AND LIGHTER. ALTHOUGH LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...EXPECT SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT BY
AROUND MIDDAY...THOUGH MVFR CIGS ARE STILL EXPECTED. THIS LOW
STRATUS WILL OBSCURE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS TODAY. CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH A
RETURN TO VFR ANTICIPATED BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN
NE PANHANDLE. ANOTHER HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VERY COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AT CHEYENNE AND RAWLINS. COOLER CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH NEW MOISTURE WILL MITIGATE ANY NOTABLE FIRE WEATHER
HAZARDS. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...HAHN
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER





000
FXUS65 KRIW 300902
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
302 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

UPPER CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE OVER THE IDAHO/WY BORDER ACDG TO
SATL LOOP WITH THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER LINCOLN CO SW WY ACDG
TO RADAR. THESE CIRCULATIONS WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE
REMAINING STRATIFORM PRECIP BECOMES MORE FOCUSED PRIMARILY OVER
SWEETWATER AND SOUTHEAST NATRONA COUNTIES. THE UPPER CIRCULATION WILL
MAKE ITS WAY TO THE RED DESERT TODAY WITH THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
DRIFTING FROM NE UTAH TO NW CO. THE ASCT RAINFALL WILL EXIT SOUTHERN
WY AROUND MID DAY JUST AS FRESH CONVECTION FORMS OVER NORTHWEST WY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVAILING SURFACE WIND WILL BE FROM THE EAST
NORTH OF THE LOW...ESPECIALLY OVER SWEETWATER COUNTY KEEPING US UNDER A
RELATIVELY MILD AND MOIST AIRMASS BUT WARMER THAN TUESDAY.
ON THURSDAY...MORE CONVECTION WILL FORM MAINLY IN NORTHWEST WY WHERE
THE BEST LIFTED INDICES/CAPES WILL BE. THEN ON FRIDAY ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
LOW WILL RIDE UP AND OVER THE STATIONARY RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND
IS PROGGED TO BE OVER NW WY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AFT/EVE. TEMPS
WILL SLOWLY RECOVER DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK BUT WILL
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WEEKEND LOOKS TO START WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEARLY OVERHEAD WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FORECAST TO BE IN THE WESTERN AND
ESPECIALLY NWRN MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DRIFT ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTH. GFS DRIES OUT THE AIRMASS
SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY FOR MAINLY WRN MTN STORMS. EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS
QUITE INTERESTING AGAIN WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF DECENT RAINFALL AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST OF US OPENING THE DOOR FOR
INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES. THE GFS HAS THE
MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE WEST MONDAY WITH SOME INCREASE EAST OF THE
DIVIDE BY EVENING. THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE HIGHER PW AIR OVER
THE ENTIRE CWFA MONDAY. THE GEM IS CLOSER IN TIMING TO THE GFS. ALL
THE MODELS SEEM TO BRING UP THE REMNANTS OF AN ELY WAVE ORIGINATING
ON THE BOTTOM OF THE 4-CORNERS HIGH FOR LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN BUT EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY MOIST AND UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF MORE
RAIN FOR A LARGE PART OF THE AREA. ECMWF IS SHOWING RAPID DRYING
TUESDAY IN A NW FLOW AS THE RIDGE REDEVELOPS TO OUR WEST. THE GFS IS
SLOWER TO DEVELOP THE NW FLOW...MORE WNW YET TUESDAY...WITH THE
REMNANT WAVE STILL HANGING OVER THE ERN PART OF THE AREA. STICKING
WITH SCT POPS YET TUESDAY BEFORE SOME DRYING OCCURS WEDNESDAY WITH
SCT POPS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND GENERALLY ISOLATED ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. DEPENDING ON EXACT TIMING THE WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO
BE SUNDAY AND POTENTIALLY MONDAY IF THE SLOWER MONSOONAL GFS TIMING
OCCURS. COOLER WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PCPN THEN TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REBOUND SOME WEDNESDAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY ONGOING THIS MORNING...MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN LINCOLN AND SWEETWATER COUNTIES...WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
TO ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY BY AROUND 15/16Z. BEFORE THEN...WIDESPREAD
MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA IMPACTING
KRKS. FARTHER NORTH...THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE PATCHY FOG
IMPACTING TERMINALS WHERE RAIN FELL YESTERDAY. ANY FOG IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT/DISSIPATE BY AROUND 15/16Z. IN THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO
LOCALLY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL MAINLY OCCUR OVER THE WEST AND
SOUTH. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE FAR WEST AND WILL HAVE
VCTS ONLY AT JAC TERMINAL FOR NOW...WITH VCSH OVER THE REST OF THE
TERMINALS WEST OF THE DIVIDE. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION EAST OF THE DIVIDE...COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO HAVE EVEN VCSH. DURING THE EVENING...CONVECTION SHOULD
QUICKLY WANE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT EASTERLY IN MOST AREAS
TODAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BREEZY EAST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS
SWEETWATER COUNTY IMPACTING KRKS. ONE SIDE NOTE...FOG IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OVER WYOMING THIS MORNING WITH SMALL
DP/TEMP SPREADS AS A RESULT OF THE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TUE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL EXIT SWEETWATER COUNTY
TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. SOON AFTERWARD...WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT EAST WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH TODAY ACROSS ZONE 279. THURSDAY
WILL BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN WYOMING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
RIDE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE
ROCKIES FRIDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER
WESTERN WY AS FAR EAST AS THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE CENTRAL BASINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK BUT WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON










000
FXUS65 KRIW 300902
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
302 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

UPPER CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE OVER THE IDAHO/WY BORDER ACDG TO
SATL LOOP WITH THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER LINCOLN CO SW WY ACDG
TO RADAR. THESE CIRCULATIONS WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE
REMAINING STRATIFORM PRECIP BECOMES MORE FOCUSED PRIMARILY OVER
SWEETWATER AND SOUTHEAST NATRONA COUNTIES. THE UPPER CIRCULATION WILL
MAKE ITS WAY TO THE RED DESERT TODAY WITH THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
DRIFTING FROM NE UTAH TO NW CO. THE ASCT RAINFALL WILL EXIT SOUTHERN
WY AROUND MID DAY JUST AS FRESH CONVECTION FORMS OVER NORTHWEST WY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVAILING SURFACE WIND WILL BE FROM THE EAST
NORTH OF THE LOW...ESPECIALLY OVER SWEETWATER COUNTY KEEPING US UNDER A
RELATIVELY MILD AND MOIST AIRMASS BUT WARMER THAN TUESDAY.
ON THURSDAY...MORE CONVECTION WILL FORM MAINLY IN NORTHWEST WY WHERE
THE BEST LIFTED INDICES/CAPES WILL BE. THEN ON FRIDAY ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
LOW WILL RIDE UP AND OVER THE STATIONARY RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND
IS PROGGED TO BE OVER NW WY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AFT/EVE. TEMPS
WILL SLOWLY RECOVER DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK BUT WILL
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WEEKEND LOOKS TO START WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEARLY OVERHEAD WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FORECAST TO BE IN THE WESTERN AND
ESPECIALLY NWRN MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DRIFT ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTH. GFS DRIES OUT THE AIRMASS
SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY FOR MAINLY WRN MTN STORMS. EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS
QUITE INTERESTING AGAIN WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF DECENT RAINFALL AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST OF US OPENING THE DOOR FOR
INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES. THE GFS HAS THE
MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE WEST MONDAY WITH SOME INCREASE EAST OF THE
DIVIDE BY EVENING. THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE HIGHER PW AIR OVER
THE ENTIRE CWFA MONDAY. THE GEM IS CLOSER IN TIMING TO THE GFS. ALL
THE MODELS SEEM TO BRING UP THE REMNANTS OF AN ELY WAVE ORIGINATING
ON THE BOTTOM OF THE 4-CORNERS HIGH FOR LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN BUT EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY MOIST AND UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF MORE
RAIN FOR A LARGE PART OF THE AREA. ECMWF IS SHOWING RAPID DRYING
TUESDAY IN A NW FLOW AS THE RIDGE REDEVELOPS TO OUR WEST. THE GFS IS
SLOWER TO DEVELOP THE NW FLOW...MORE WNW YET TUESDAY...WITH THE
REMNANT WAVE STILL HANGING OVER THE ERN PART OF THE AREA. STICKING
WITH SCT POPS YET TUESDAY BEFORE SOME DRYING OCCURS WEDNESDAY WITH
SCT POPS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND GENERALLY ISOLATED ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. DEPENDING ON EXACT TIMING THE WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO
BE SUNDAY AND POTENTIALLY MONDAY IF THE SLOWER MONSOONAL GFS TIMING
OCCURS. COOLER WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PCPN THEN TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REBOUND SOME WEDNESDAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY ONGOING THIS MORNING...MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN LINCOLN AND SWEETWATER COUNTIES...WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
TO ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY BY AROUND 15/16Z. BEFORE THEN...WIDESPREAD
MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA IMPACTING
KRKS. FARTHER NORTH...THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE PATCHY FOG
IMPACTING TERMINALS WHERE RAIN FELL YESTERDAY. ANY FOG IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT/DISSIPATE BY AROUND 15/16Z. IN THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO
LOCALLY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL MAINLY OCCUR OVER THE WEST AND
SOUTH. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE FAR WEST AND WILL HAVE
VCTS ONLY AT JAC TERMINAL FOR NOW...WITH VCSH OVER THE REST OF THE
TERMINALS WEST OF THE DIVIDE. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION EAST OF THE DIVIDE...COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO HAVE EVEN VCSH. DURING THE EVENING...CONVECTION SHOULD
QUICKLY WANE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT EASTERLY IN MOST AREAS
TODAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BREEZY EAST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS
SWEETWATER COUNTY IMPACTING KRKS. ONE SIDE NOTE...FOG IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OVER WYOMING THIS MORNING WITH SMALL
DP/TEMP SPREADS AS A RESULT OF THE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TUE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL EXIT SWEETWATER COUNTY
TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. SOON AFTERWARD...WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT EAST WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH TODAY ACROSS ZONE 279. THURSDAY
WILL BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN WYOMING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
RIDE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE
ROCKIES FRIDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER
WESTERN WY AS FAR EAST AS THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE CENTRAL BASINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK BUT WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON










000
FXUS65 KRIW 300902
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
302 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

UPPER CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE OVER THE IDAHO/WY BORDER ACDG TO
SATL LOOP WITH THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER LINCOLN CO SW WY ACDG
TO RADAR. THESE CIRCULATIONS WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE
REMAINING STRATIFORM PRECIP BECOMES MORE FOCUSED PRIMARILY OVER
SWEETWATER AND SOUTHEAST NATRONA COUNTIES. THE UPPER CIRCULATION WILL
MAKE ITS WAY TO THE RED DESERT TODAY WITH THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
DRIFTING FROM NE UTAH TO NW CO. THE ASCT RAINFALL WILL EXIT SOUTHERN
WY AROUND MID DAY JUST AS FRESH CONVECTION FORMS OVER NORTHWEST WY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVAILING SURFACE WIND WILL BE FROM THE EAST
NORTH OF THE LOW...ESPECIALLY OVER SWEETWATER COUNTY KEEPING US UNDER A
RELATIVELY MILD AND MOIST AIRMASS BUT WARMER THAN TUESDAY.
ON THURSDAY...MORE CONVECTION WILL FORM MAINLY IN NORTHWEST WY WHERE
THE BEST LIFTED INDICES/CAPES WILL BE. THEN ON FRIDAY ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
LOW WILL RIDE UP AND OVER THE STATIONARY RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND
IS PROGGED TO BE OVER NW WY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AFT/EVE. TEMPS
WILL SLOWLY RECOVER DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK BUT WILL
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WEEKEND LOOKS TO START WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEARLY OVERHEAD WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FORECAST TO BE IN THE WESTERN AND
ESPECIALLY NWRN MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DRIFT ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTH. GFS DRIES OUT THE AIRMASS
SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY FOR MAINLY WRN MTN STORMS. EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS
QUITE INTERESTING AGAIN WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF DECENT RAINFALL AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST OF US OPENING THE DOOR FOR
INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES. THE GFS HAS THE
MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE WEST MONDAY WITH SOME INCREASE EAST OF THE
DIVIDE BY EVENING. THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE HIGHER PW AIR OVER
THE ENTIRE CWFA MONDAY. THE GEM IS CLOSER IN TIMING TO THE GFS. ALL
THE MODELS SEEM TO BRING UP THE REMNANTS OF AN ELY WAVE ORIGINATING
ON THE BOTTOM OF THE 4-CORNERS HIGH FOR LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN BUT EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY MOIST AND UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF MORE
RAIN FOR A LARGE PART OF THE AREA. ECMWF IS SHOWING RAPID DRYING
TUESDAY IN A NW FLOW AS THE RIDGE REDEVELOPS TO OUR WEST. THE GFS IS
SLOWER TO DEVELOP THE NW FLOW...MORE WNW YET TUESDAY...WITH THE
REMNANT WAVE STILL HANGING OVER THE ERN PART OF THE AREA. STICKING
WITH SCT POPS YET TUESDAY BEFORE SOME DRYING OCCURS WEDNESDAY WITH
SCT POPS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND GENERALLY ISOLATED ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. DEPENDING ON EXACT TIMING THE WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO
BE SUNDAY AND POTENTIALLY MONDAY IF THE SLOWER MONSOONAL GFS TIMING
OCCURS. COOLER WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PCPN THEN TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REBOUND SOME WEDNESDAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY ONGOING THIS MORNING...MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN LINCOLN AND SWEETWATER COUNTIES...WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
TO ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY BY AROUND 15/16Z. BEFORE THEN...WIDESPREAD
MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA IMPACTING
KRKS. FARTHER NORTH...THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE PATCHY FOG
IMPACTING TERMINALS WHERE RAIN FELL YESTERDAY. ANY FOG IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT/DISSIPATE BY AROUND 15/16Z. IN THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO
LOCALLY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL MAINLY OCCUR OVER THE WEST AND
SOUTH. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE FAR WEST AND WILL HAVE
VCTS ONLY AT JAC TERMINAL FOR NOW...WITH VCSH OVER THE REST OF THE
TERMINALS WEST OF THE DIVIDE. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION EAST OF THE DIVIDE...COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO HAVE EVEN VCSH. DURING THE EVENING...CONVECTION SHOULD
QUICKLY WANE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT EASTERLY IN MOST AREAS
TODAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BREEZY EAST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS
SWEETWATER COUNTY IMPACTING KRKS. ONE SIDE NOTE...FOG IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OVER WYOMING THIS MORNING WITH SMALL
DP/TEMP SPREADS AS A RESULT OF THE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TUE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL EXIT SWEETWATER COUNTY
TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. SOON AFTERWARD...WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT EAST WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH TODAY ACROSS ZONE 279. THURSDAY
WILL BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN WYOMING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
RIDE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE
ROCKIES FRIDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER
WESTERN WY AS FAR EAST AS THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE CENTRAL BASINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK BUT WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON










000
FXUS65 KRIW 300902
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
302 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

UPPER CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE OVER THE IDAHO/WY BORDER ACDG TO
SATL LOOP WITH THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER LINCOLN CO SW WY ACDG
TO RADAR. THESE CIRCULATIONS WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE
REMAINING STRATIFORM PRECIP BECOMES MORE FOCUSED PRIMARILY OVER
SWEETWATER AND SOUTHEAST NATRONA COUNTIES. THE UPPER CIRCULATION WILL
MAKE ITS WAY TO THE RED DESERT TODAY WITH THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
DRIFTING FROM NE UTAH TO NW CO. THE ASCT RAINFALL WILL EXIT SOUTHERN
WY AROUND MID DAY JUST AS FRESH CONVECTION FORMS OVER NORTHWEST WY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVAILING SURFACE WIND WILL BE FROM THE EAST
NORTH OF THE LOW...ESPECIALLY OVER SWEETWATER COUNTY KEEPING US UNDER A
RELATIVELY MILD AND MOIST AIRMASS BUT WARMER THAN TUESDAY.
ON THURSDAY...MORE CONVECTION WILL FORM MAINLY IN NORTHWEST WY WHERE
THE BEST LIFTED INDICES/CAPES WILL BE. THEN ON FRIDAY ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
LOW WILL RIDE UP AND OVER THE STATIONARY RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND
IS PROGGED TO BE OVER NW WY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AFT/EVE. TEMPS
WILL SLOWLY RECOVER DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK BUT WILL
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WEEKEND LOOKS TO START WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEARLY OVERHEAD WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FORECAST TO BE IN THE WESTERN AND
ESPECIALLY NWRN MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DRIFT ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTH. GFS DRIES OUT THE AIRMASS
SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY FOR MAINLY WRN MTN STORMS. EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS
QUITE INTERESTING AGAIN WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF DECENT RAINFALL AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST OF US OPENING THE DOOR FOR
INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES. THE GFS HAS THE
MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE WEST MONDAY WITH SOME INCREASE EAST OF THE
DIVIDE BY EVENING. THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE HIGHER PW AIR OVER
THE ENTIRE CWFA MONDAY. THE GEM IS CLOSER IN TIMING TO THE GFS. ALL
THE MODELS SEEM TO BRING UP THE REMNANTS OF AN ELY WAVE ORIGINATING
ON THE BOTTOM OF THE 4-CORNERS HIGH FOR LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN BUT EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY MOIST AND UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF MORE
RAIN FOR A LARGE PART OF THE AREA. ECMWF IS SHOWING RAPID DRYING
TUESDAY IN A NW FLOW AS THE RIDGE REDEVELOPS TO OUR WEST. THE GFS IS
SLOWER TO DEVELOP THE NW FLOW...MORE WNW YET TUESDAY...WITH THE
REMNANT WAVE STILL HANGING OVER THE ERN PART OF THE AREA. STICKING
WITH SCT POPS YET TUESDAY BEFORE SOME DRYING OCCURS WEDNESDAY WITH
SCT POPS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND GENERALLY ISOLATED ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. DEPENDING ON EXACT TIMING THE WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO
BE SUNDAY AND POTENTIALLY MONDAY IF THE SLOWER MONSOONAL GFS TIMING
OCCURS. COOLER WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PCPN THEN TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REBOUND SOME WEDNESDAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY ONGOING THIS MORNING...MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN LINCOLN AND SWEETWATER COUNTIES...WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
TO ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY BY AROUND 15/16Z. BEFORE THEN...WIDESPREAD
MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA IMPACTING
KRKS. FARTHER NORTH...THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE PATCHY FOG
IMPACTING TERMINALS WHERE RAIN FELL YESTERDAY. ANY FOG IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT/DISSIPATE BY AROUND 15/16Z. IN THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO
LOCALLY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL MAINLY OCCUR OVER THE WEST AND
SOUTH. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE FAR WEST AND WILL HAVE
VCTS ONLY AT JAC TERMINAL FOR NOW...WITH VCSH OVER THE REST OF THE
TERMINALS WEST OF THE DIVIDE. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION EAST OF THE DIVIDE...COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO HAVE EVEN VCSH. DURING THE EVENING...CONVECTION SHOULD
QUICKLY WANE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT EASTERLY IN MOST AREAS
TODAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BREEZY EAST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS
SWEETWATER COUNTY IMPACTING KRKS. ONE SIDE NOTE...FOG IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OVER WYOMING THIS MORNING WITH SMALL
DP/TEMP SPREADS AS A RESULT OF THE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TUE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL EXIT SWEETWATER COUNTY
TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. SOON AFTERWARD...WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT EAST WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH TODAY ACROSS ZONE 279. THURSDAY
WILL BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN WYOMING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
RIDE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE
ROCKIES FRIDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER
WESTERN WY AS FAR EAST AS THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE CENTRAL BASINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK BUT WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON










000
FXUS63 KUNR 300822
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
222 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE
RIDGE WILL INTERACT WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME.

HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THIS MORNING
FOR A FEW SHOWERS CURRENTLY WORKING SOUTHWARD OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...HOWEVER A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL
SURFACE HEATING AND WEAK COOLING ALOFT TO CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE SRN BLACK HILLS AND
THE ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND ALSO CLOSER TO
THE WAVE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA OVER
FAR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE CHANCES
SPREADING SOUTHWARD OVER THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA DURING THE DAY AS DIURNAL HEATING AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAA
ALOFT COMBINE TO INCREASE THE INSTABILITY. DRY AIR WILL BE FOUND
OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING WITH THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
EXPECT TO FALL INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE THERE ON THURSDAY
AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BUT MODELS
ARE INDICATING A GRADUAL BREAKDOWN AND SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES
PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES THIS WEEKEND WITH A BETTER CHANCE DEVELOPING
BY MIDWEEK WHEN A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES BEFORE COOLING A FEW
DEGREES MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014


VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS
PASS OVERHEAD. ISOLATED -TSRA MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SD WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...CARPENTER






000
FXUS65 KRIW 300529
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1129 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A DEEP PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE HAS MOVED OVER THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA. WITH SOME UPLIFT PROVIDED BY A MID LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS
UTAH MANY AREAS HAVE BEEN SEEING SHOWERY RAINS THROUGH THE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE GOOD PART ABOUT THIS IS THAT OVER
A MAJORITY OF THE AREA THERE HAS BEEN A MAINLY OVERCAST SKY THAT HAS
LIMITED INSTABILITY. AS A RESULT...MOST OF THE RAIN HAS BEEN OF THE
LIGHT TO MODERATE VARIETY WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE
EXCEPTION SO FAR HAS BEEN SOUTHERN NATRONA COUNTY WHERE A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED OVER CASPER MOUNTAIN. SOME CLEARING HAS BEEN
TRYING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING BUT ANY BREAKS SO FAR
HAVE CLOSED AS QUICKLY AS THEY HAVE FORMED. AS A RESULT...WE EXPECT
LITTLE SEVERE WEATHER. THE MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE FLOODING WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING WELL OVER AN INCH. WITH THE
STRATIFORM NATURE OF THE RAIN...WE HAVE DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING A
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT.

MODELS HAVE DIFFERING OPINIONS ON HOW FAST THE DEEPER MOISTURE GETS
MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. THE NAM HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH KEEPING DEEP
MOISTURE OVER AREAS SOUTH OF THE OWL CREEK RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER WITH PUSHING THE DEEP MOISTURE
OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND 9Z. AT THIS POINT... CONTINUITY LOOKED
LIKE A DECENT SOLUTION. AS A RESULT WE KEPT THE HEAVY RAIN WORDING
THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND TAPERED THINGS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.

IT IS THE SAME PROBLEM FOR WEDNESDAY. THE NAM KEEPS MORE MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A DECENT AMOUNT LESS THAN TODAY. IT HAS
CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA. THE GFS IS ONCE AGAIN THE DRIER MODEL IN BRINGING IN DRIER AIR
FURTHER SOUTH AND CONFINES ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. ONCE AGAIN...WITH
THE UNCERTAINTY CONTINUITY LOOKED LIKE A REASONABLE COMPROMISE SO WE
MADE FEW CHANGES. WITH MORE SUNSHINE TOMORROW...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE WARMER THAN TODAY BY AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BUT STILL BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE END OF JULY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

WEAK OR DIRTY RIDGE OVER FORECAST AREA MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS GENERALLY MEANS THERE WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND LIFT FROM TERRAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WYOMING. FACTORING IN
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT...DAYTIME HIGHS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE SIMILAR...OR NEAR NORMAL...FROM DAY TO DAY.

POSSIBLE INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE DIVIDE PER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS.
COULD RESULT IN HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE WEST. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
MILD. PATTERN THEN LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH THIS RIDGE FLATTENING AND
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER WEST CENTRAL WYOMING.
THEREFORE...MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF A
KBPI TO KCPR LINE...WITH MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN LINCOLN
AND SWEETWATER COUNTIES. ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS AREA...WHERE RAIN
OCCURRED TUESDAY...SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE DESPITE THE LINGERING
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS...DUE TO VERY LOW TEMP/DEWPT DEPRESSIONS. THE
MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER SWEETWATER COUNTY SHOULD DISSIPATE/EXIT
THE AREA BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. AT THE SAME TIME...ANY FOG SHOULD ALSO
LIFT. IN THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL MAINLY OCCUR OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL
BE OVER THE FAR WEST AND WILL HAVE VCTS ONLY AT JAC TERMINAL...WITH
VCSH OVER THE REST OF THE TERMINALS WEST OF THE DIVIDE. ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO HAVE VCSH.
DURING THE EVENING...CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY WANE.

FOR TERMINALS THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KRKS WITH
PERSISTENT MVFR/PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND
15Z. OTHERWISE THE OTHER TAF SITES COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS MAINLY IN FOG THROUGH THE TIME FRAME. AFTER
15Z/16Z...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH ONLY BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
EASTERLY IN MOST AREAS...BUT RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
BREEZY EAST WINDS ACROSS SWEETWATER COUNTY IMPACTING KRKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A MORE SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN...HELPING TO ALLEVIATE SOME
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY ALTHOUGH NOT AS HEAVY OR AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR MOST AREAS.
&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...KPL
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS








000
FXUS63 KUNR 300413
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1013 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LATEST RADAR/VISIBLE LOOPS SHOWED ISOLATED -TSRA DROPPING INTO
CENTRAL SD AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOUR OVER
CENTRAL ND. REGION ALSO UNDER THE TAIL END OF 70KT JET STREAK.
FORECAST UPDATED TO BRING LOW POPS FOR THOSE AREAS. SHOULD NOT
MAKE IT TOO FAR INTO CWA GIVEN 00Z KUNR SOUNDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AND GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG FETCH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MONSOON FLOW WITH MID-HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE
PERIPHERY. ONE SUCH IMPULSE IS IN THE PROCESS OF SLOWLY EXITING
THE FAR SW FA...WITH SHRA CHANCES WANING THROUGH EVENING.
MEANWHILE...COMPACT WEAK VORT LOBES ARE EVIDENT ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH...ONE CURRENTLY SUPPORTING SCT
SHRA/TS OVER NORTHERN ND. THESE FEATURES WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE SOUTH
INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS...SUPPORTING A WEAK LL PRESSURE RESPONSE
AND INCREASED CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY IN THEIR VICINITY.

TONIGHT...MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOUTH AWAY FROM
THE WESTERN FA. SOME LINGERING SHRA ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING THERE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SUPPORT
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND SOME 40S
EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK VORT LOBES WILL ADVECT INTO CENTRAL
SD WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET ALOFT. MODEL MOMENTUM AND
PRESSURE FIELDS INDICATE A WEAK LL RESPONSE WITH ENSUING CONVERGENCE
OVER THE SE FA. THIS COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW SHRA/TS OVER THE FAR SE...A SIGNAL THAT HAS BEEN
HINTED AT IN THE HIRES MODELS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. HAVE DECIDE
TO ADD A SMALL POP SCENTRAL IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW MODEL SOLUTIONS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION LATE WED MORNING...BUT OPTED
FOR A MENTION CLOSER TO PEAK HEATING. LINGERING MOISTURE WITH MID
RIDGE CONVERGENCE MAY ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLD SHRA OVER THE CENTRAL
ANS SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS. HOWEVER...LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
PRECLUDES A POP/WX MENTION THERE. BUMPED TEMPS UP IN THE EAST GIVEN
ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS...ESP AROUND THE PHP-ICR AREA. A FEW
LINGERING SHRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER SCNTRL AREAS INTO THE EVENING IF
ACTIVITY DOES DEVELOP WED AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WED NIGHT ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BUT MODELS ARE INDICATING A SLOW TRANSITION
TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF WAVES MAY PUSH
THROUGH THE FLOW SLOWLY...BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE...AND BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN A SLIGHT WARMING TREND
IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1011 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS
PASS OVERHEAD. ISOLATED -TSRA MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SD WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 300413
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1013 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LATEST RADAR/VISIBLE LOOPS SHOWED ISOLATED -TSRA DROPPING INTO
CENTRAL SD AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOUR OVER
CENTRAL ND. REGION ALSO UNDER THE TAIL END OF 70KT JET STREAK.
FORECAST UPDATED TO BRING LOW POPS FOR THOSE AREAS. SHOULD NOT
MAKE IT TOO FAR INTO CWA GIVEN 00Z KUNR SOUNDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AND GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG FETCH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MONSOON FLOW WITH MID-HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE
PERIPHERY. ONE SUCH IMPULSE IS IN THE PROCESS OF SLOWLY EXITING
THE FAR SW FA...WITH SHRA CHANCES WANING THROUGH EVENING.
MEANWHILE...COMPACT WEAK VORT LOBES ARE EVIDENT ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH...ONE CURRENTLY SUPPORTING SCT
SHRA/TS OVER NORTHERN ND. THESE FEATURES WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE SOUTH
INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS...SUPPORTING A WEAK LL PRESSURE RESPONSE
AND INCREASED CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY IN THEIR VICINITY.

TONIGHT...MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOUTH AWAY FROM
THE WESTERN FA. SOME LINGERING SHRA ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING THERE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SUPPORT
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND SOME 40S
EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK VORT LOBES WILL ADVECT INTO CENTRAL
SD WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET ALOFT. MODEL MOMENTUM AND
PRESSURE FIELDS INDICATE A WEAK LL RESPONSE WITH ENSUING CONVERGENCE
OVER THE SE FA. THIS COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW SHRA/TS OVER THE FAR SE...A SIGNAL THAT HAS BEEN
HINTED AT IN THE HIRES MODELS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. HAVE DECIDE
TO ADD A SMALL POP SCENTRAL IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW MODEL SOLUTIONS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION LATE WED MORNING...BUT OPTED
FOR A MENTION CLOSER TO PEAK HEATING. LINGERING MOISTURE WITH MID
RIDGE CONVERGENCE MAY ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLD SHRA OVER THE CENTRAL
ANS SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS. HOWEVER...LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
PRECLUDES A POP/WX MENTION THERE. BUMPED TEMPS UP IN THE EAST GIVEN
ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS...ESP AROUND THE PHP-ICR AREA. A FEW
LINGERING SHRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER SCNTRL AREAS INTO THE EVENING IF
ACTIVITY DOES DEVELOP WED AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WED NIGHT ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BUT MODELS ARE INDICATING A SLOW TRANSITION
TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF WAVES MAY PUSH
THROUGH THE FLOW SLOWLY...BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE...AND BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN A SLIGHT WARMING TREND
IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1011 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS
PASS OVERHEAD. ISOLATED -TSRA MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SD WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 300413
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1013 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LATEST RADAR/VISIBLE LOOPS SHOWED ISOLATED -TSRA DROPPING INTO
CENTRAL SD AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOUR OVER
CENTRAL ND. REGION ALSO UNDER THE TAIL END OF 70KT JET STREAK.
FORECAST UPDATED TO BRING LOW POPS FOR THOSE AREAS. SHOULD NOT
MAKE IT TOO FAR INTO CWA GIVEN 00Z KUNR SOUNDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AND GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG FETCH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MONSOON FLOW WITH MID-HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE
PERIPHERY. ONE SUCH IMPULSE IS IN THE PROCESS OF SLOWLY EXITING
THE FAR SW FA...WITH SHRA CHANCES WANING THROUGH EVENING.
MEANWHILE...COMPACT WEAK VORT LOBES ARE EVIDENT ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH...ONE CURRENTLY SUPPORTING SCT
SHRA/TS OVER NORTHERN ND. THESE FEATURES WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE SOUTH
INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS...SUPPORTING A WEAK LL PRESSURE RESPONSE
AND INCREASED CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY IN THEIR VICINITY.

TONIGHT...MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOUTH AWAY FROM
THE WESTERN FA. SOME LINGERING SHRA ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING THERE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SUPPORT
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND SOME 40S
EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK VORT LOBES WILL ADVECT INTO CENTRAL
SD WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET ALOFT. MODEL MOMENTUM AND
PRESSURE FIELDS INDICATE A WEAK LL RESPONSE WITH ENSUING CONVERGENCE
OVER THE SE FA. THIS COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW SHRA/TS OVER THE FAR SE...A SIGNAL THAT HAS BEEN
HINTED AT IN THE HIRES MODELS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. HAVE DECIDE
TO ADD A SMALL POP SCENTRAL IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW MODEL SOLUTIONS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION LATE WED MORNING...BUT OPTED
FOR A MENTION CLOSER TO PEAK HEATING. LINGERING MOISTURE WITH MID
RIDGE CONVERGENCE MAY ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLD SHRA OVER THE CENTRAL
ANS SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS. HOWEVER...LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
PRECLUDES A POP/WX MENTION THERE. BUMPED TEMPS UP IN THE EAST GIVEN
ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS...ESP AROUND THE PHP-ICR AREA. A FEW
LINGERING SHRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER SCNTRL AREAS INTO THE EVENING IF
ACTIVITY DOES DEVELOP WED AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WED NIGHT ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BUT MODELS ARE INDICATING A SLOW TRANSITION
TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF WAVES MAY PUSH
THROUGH THE FLOW SLOWLY...BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE...AND BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN A SLIGHT WARMING TREND
IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1011 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS
PASS OVERHEAD. ISOLATED -TSRA MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SD WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 300413
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1013 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LATEST RADAR/VISIBLE LOOPS SHOWED ISOLATED -TSRA DROPPING INTO
CENTRAL SD AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOUR OVER
CENTRAL ND. REGION ALSO UNDER THE TAIL END OF 70KT JET STREAK.
FORECAST UPDATED TO BRING LOW POPS FOR THOSE AREAS. SHOULD NOT
MAKE IT TOO FAR INTO CWA GIVEN 00Z KUNR SOUNDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AND GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG FETCH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MONSOON FLOW WITH MID-HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE
PERIPHERY. ONE SUCH IMPULSE IS IN THE PROCESS OF SLOWLY EXITING
THE FAR SW FA...WITH SHRA CHANCES WANING THROUGH EVENING.
MEANWHILE...COMPACT WEAK VORT LOBES ARE EVIDENT ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH...ONE CURRENTLY SUPPORTING SCT
SHRA/TS OVER NORTHERN ND. THESE FEATURES WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE SOUTH
INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS...SUPPORTING A WEAK LL PRESSURE RESPONSE
AND INCREASED CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY IN THEIR VICINITY.

TONIGHT...MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOUTH AWAY FROM
THE WESTERN FA. SOME LINGERING SHRA ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING THERE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SUPPORT
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND SOME 40S
EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK VORT LOBES WILL ADVECT INTO CENTRAL
SD WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET ALOFT. MODEL MOMENTUM AND
PRESSURE FIELDS INDICATE A WEAK LL RESPONSE WITH ENSUING CONVERGENCE
OVER THE SE FA. THIS COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW SHRA/TS OVER THE FAR SE...A SIGNAL THAT HAS BEEN
HINTED AT IN THE HIRES MODELS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. HAVE DECIDE
TO ADD A SMALL POP SCENTRAL IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW MODEL SOLUTIONS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION LATE WED MORNING...BUT OPTED
FOR A MENTION CLOSER TO PEAK HEATING. LINGERING MOISTURE WITH MID
RIDGE CONVERGENCE MAY ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLD SHRA OVER THE CENTRAL
ANS SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS. HOWEVER...LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
PRECLUDES A POP/WX MENTION THERE. BUMPED TEMPS UP IN THE EAST GIVEN
ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS...ESP AROUND THE PHP-ICR AREA. A FEW
LINGERING SHRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER SCNTRL AREAS INTO THE EVENING IF
ACTIVITY DOES DEVELOP WED AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WED NIGHT ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BUT MODELS ARE INDICATING A SLOW TRANSITION
TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF WAVES MAY PUSH
THROUGH THE FLOW SLOWLY...BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE...AND BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN A SLIGHT WARMING TREND
IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1011 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS
PASS OVERHEAD. ISOLATED -TSRA MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SD WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS65 KCYS 300306
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
906 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED A UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTH
CENTRAL CO. REGIONAL RADARS DETECTED WIDESPREAD SHOWER/ISOLATED
TSTORM COVERAGE. CONVECTION WAS PROPAGATING SLOWLY TO THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST DUE TO WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT. RUNOFF FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL /ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR/ WITH SOME OF THE MORE
PERSISTENT CONVECTION CAUSED FLOODING IN PARTS OF ALBANY...CARBON
AND PLATTE COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MUCH
OF SOUTHEAST WY AS ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED
GROUND WILL RESULT IN FURTHER RUNOFF. FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...
TWEAKED POPS BASED ON RADAR AND HRRR MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT) ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HEAVY RAIN EVENT JUST STARTING WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
ALBANY COUNTY NEAR LARAMIE AND UP NEAR SHIRLEY BASIN AT NOON
TODAY. STORMS ARE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. PLEASE SEE HYDRO
SECTION BELOW. FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF
HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR SHOWING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
NORTHEASTERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING
STATIONARY FRONT LAYING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING TO JUST NORTH
OF RAWLINS...THEN SOUTHEAST BY SARATOGA...INTO NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO. MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS MOST OF WESTERN WYOMING UNDER
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH NORTHERN COLORADO FILLING IN THE PAST FEW
IMAGES. STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CWFA ARE VERY SLOW
MOVING...WITH A GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWEST MOVEMENT OF 5-10KT OR
LESS.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FILL IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...SPILLING OVER INTO THE EAST SLOPES
AFTER 22Z TODAY. PWATS HERE AT CHEYENNE CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS
AFTERNOON...UP TO 1.36 INCHES BY MID EVENING. VERY SLOW MOVEMENT
ON CELLS..UNDER 10KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

VERY STRONG UPSLOPING WINDS THIS EVENING. GFS AND NAM SHOWING 20KT
AT 700MBS THIS EVENING. SO WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD
UPSLOPING EVENT FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THINK THAT WE
WILL SEE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM EVENT WITH MODERATE
RAIN...MAYBE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE STRATUS.
WENT AHEAD AND UPPED POPS AND CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH INTO COLORADO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. RAIN TO COME
TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES AND A LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER
THE OTHER TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
RELATIVELY STRONG TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...THIS
PATTERN IS TYPICAL FOR EARLY AUGUST WITH MONSOON FLOW OVER THE
WEST. THEREFORE...CAN NOT RULE OUT A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS SHOW PW/S INCREASING OVER ONE INCH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH DECENT LLVL INSTABILITY. WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND TSTORMS AS WELL
FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. KEPT POP BETWEEN 20 TO 40 PERCENT
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S.
SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COOL
FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION AND TSTORM CHANCES INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ALL
MODELS SHOWING A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH. THE AXIS OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE RIGHT ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS
SHORTWAVE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL.
CONTINUED TO INCREASE POP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A FAVORABLE HEAVY
RAINFALL PATTERN WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AND GOOD
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA. LOWERED TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN...WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KCDR AND KAIA
WHICH WILL LIKELY BE NORTH OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BECOME ISOLATED AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO HEAVY RAIN...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR FOG AND LOW CEILINGS
NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE AS A
700MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE COLORADO/WYOMING BORDER TONIGHT. THIS
MAY RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SURFACE WINDS AND WIND DRIVEN RAIN
FROM KCYS TO KRWL.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM COMBINED
WITH MONSOON MOISTURE WILL GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL
BE ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE A GENERAL 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NEW
MOISTURE WILL MITIGATE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ103-106-112-
     114>118.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAMSKI
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB







000
FXUS65 KCYS 300306
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
906 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED A UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTH
CENTRAL CO. REGIONAL RADARS DETECTED WIDESPREAD SHOWER/ISOLATED
TSTORM COVERAGE. CONVECTION WAS PROPAGATING SLOWLY TO THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST DUE TO WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT. RUNOFF FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL /ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR/ WITH SOME OF THE MORE
PERSISTENT CONVECTION CAUSED FLOODING IN PARTS OF ALBANY...CARBON
AND PLATTE COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MUCH
OF SOUTHEAST WY AS ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED
GROUND WILL RESULT IN FURTHER RUNOFF. FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...
TWEAKED POPS BASED ON RADAR AND HRRR MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT) ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HEAVY RAIN EVENT JUST STARTING WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
ALBANY COUNTY NEAR LARAMIE AND UP NEAR SHIRLEY BASIN AT NOON
TODAY. STORMS ARE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. PLEASE SEE HYDRO
SECTION BELOW. FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF
HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR SHOWING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
NORTHEASTERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING
STATIONARY FRONT LAYING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING TO JUST NORTH
OF RAWLINS...THEN SOUTHEAST BY SARATOGA...INTO NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO. MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS MOST OF WESTERN WYOMING UNDER
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH NORTHERN COLORADO FILLING IN THE PAST FEW
IMAGES. STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CWFA ARE VERY SLOW
MOVING...WITH A GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWEST MOVEMENT OF 5-10KT OR
LESS.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FILL IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...SPILLING OVER INTO THE EAST SLOPES
AFTER 22Z TODAY. PWATS HERE AT CHEYENNE CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS
AFTERNOON...UP TO 1.36 INCHES BY MID EVENING. VERY SLOW MOVEMENT
ON CELLS..UNDER 10KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

VERY STRONG UPSLOPING WINDS THIS EVENING. GFS AND NAM SHOWING 20KT
AT 700MBS THIS EVENING. SO WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD
UPSLOPING EVENT FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THINK THAT WE
WILL SEE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM EVENT WITH MODERATE
RAIN...MAYBE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE STRATUS.
WENT AHEAD AND UPPED POPS AND CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH INTO COLORADO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. RAIN TO COME
TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES AND A LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER
THE OTHER TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
RELATIVELY STRONG TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...THIS
PATTERN IS TYPICAL FOR EARLY AUGUST WITH MONSOON FLOW OVER THE
WEST. THEREFORE...CAN NOT RULE OUT A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS SHOW PW/S INCREASING OVER ONE INCH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH DECENT LLVL INSTABILITY. WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND TSTORMS AS WELL
FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. KEPT POP BETWEEN 20 TO 40 PERCENT
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S.
SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COOL
FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION AND TSTORM CHANCES INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ALL
MODELS SHOWING A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH. THE AXIS OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE RIGHT ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS
SHORTWAVE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL.
CONTINUED TO INCREASE POP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A FAVORABLE HEAVY
RAINFALL PATTERN WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AND GOOD
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA. LOWERED TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN...WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KCDR AND KAIA
WHICH WILL LIKELY BE NORTH OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BECOME ISOLATED AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO HEAVY RAIN...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR FOG AND LOW CEILINGS
NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE AS A
700MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE COLORADO/WYOMING BORDER TONIGHT. THIS
MAY RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SURFACE WINDS AND WIND DRIVEN RAIN
FROM KCYS TO KRWL.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM COMBINED
WITH MONSOON MOISTURE WILL GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL
BE ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE A GENERAL 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NEW
MOISTURE WILL MITIGATE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ103-106-112-
     114>118.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAMSKI
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB








000
FXUS63 KUNR 300033
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
633 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LATEST RADAR/VISIBLE LOOPS SHOWED ISOLATED -TSRA DROPPING INTO
CENTRAL SD AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOUR OVER
CENTRAL ND. REGION ALSO UNDER THE TAIL END OF 70KT JET STREAK.
FORECAST UPDATED TO BRING LOW POPS FOR THOSE AREAS. SHOULD NOT
MAKE IT TOO FAR INTO CWA GIVEN 00Z KUNR SOUNDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AND GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG FETCH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MONSOON FLOW WITH MID-HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE
PERIPHERY. ONE SUCH IMPULSE IS IN THE PROCESS OF SLOWLY EXITING
THE FAR SW FA...WITH SHRA CHANCES WANING THROUGH EVENING.
MEANWHILE...COMPACT WEAK VORT LOBES ARE EVIDENT ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH...ONE CURRENTLY SUPPORTING SCT
SHRA/TS OVER NORTHERN ND. THESE FEATURES WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE SOUTH
INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS...SUPPORTING A WEAK LL PRESSURE RESPONSE
AND INCREASED CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY IN THEIR VICINITY.

TONIGHT...MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOUTH AWAY FROM
THE WESTERN FA. SOME LINGERING SHRA ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING THERE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SUPPORT
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND SOME 40S
EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK VORT LOBES WILL ADVECT INTO CENTRAL
SD WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET ALOFT. MODEL MOMENTUM AND
PRESSURE FIELDS INDICATE A WEAK LL RESPONSE WITH ENSUING CONVERGENCE
OVER THE SE FA. THIS COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW SHRA/TS OVER THE FAR SE...A SIGNAL THAT HAS BEEN
HINTED AT IN THE HIRES MODELS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. HAVE DECIDE
TO ADD A SMALL POP SCENTRAL IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW MODEL SOLUTIONS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION LATE WED MORNING...BUT OPTED
FOR A MENTION CLOSER TO PEAK HEATING. LINGERING MOISTURE WITH MID
RIDGE CONVERGENCE MAY ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLD SHRA OVER THE CENTRAL
ANS SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS. HOWEVER...LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
PRECLUDES A POP/WX MENTION THERE. BUMPED TEMPS UP IN THE EAST GIVEN
ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS...ESP AROUND THE PHP-ICR AREA. A FEW
LINGERING SHRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER SCNTRL AREAS INTO THE EVENING IF
ACTIVITY DOES DEVELOP WED AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WED NIGHT ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BUT MODELS ARE INDICATING A SLOW TRANSITION
TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF WAVES MAY PUSH
THROUGH THE FLOW SLOWLY...BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE...AND BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN A SLIGHT WARMING TREND
IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 517 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

ISOLATED -TSRA WILL END OVER NORTHEAST WY/FAR SOUTHWEST SD/NORTH
CENTRAL SD THIS EVENING. LOCAL MVFR CIGS IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...HELGESON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 300033
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
633 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LATEST RADAR/VISIBLE LOOPS SHOWED ISOLATED -TSRA DROPPING INTO
CENTRAL SD AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOUR OVER
CENTRAL ND. REGION ALSO UNDER THE TAIL END OF 70KT JET STREAK.
FORECAST UPDATED TO BRING LOW POPS FOR THOSE AREAS. SHOULD NOT
MAKE IT TOO FAR INTO CWA GIVEN 00Z KUNR SOUNDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AND GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG FETCH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MONSOON FLOW WITH MID-HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE
PERIPHERY. ONE SUCH IMPULSE IS IN THE PROCESS OF SLOWLY EXITING
THE FAR SW FA...WITH SHRA CHANCES WANING THROUGH EVENING.
MEANWHILE...COMPACT WEAK VORT LOBES ARE EVIDENT ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH...ONE CURRENTLY SUPPORTING SCT
SHRA/TS OVER NORTHERN ND. THESE FEATURES WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE SOUTH
INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS...SUPPORTING A WEAK LL PRESSURE RESPONSE
AND INCREASED CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY IN THEIR VICINITY.

TONIGHT...MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOUTH AWAY FROM
THE WESTERN FA. SOME LINGERING SHRA ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING THERE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SUPPORT
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND SOME 40S
EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK VORT LOBES WILL ADVECT INTO CENTRAL
SD WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET ALOFT. MODEL MOMENTUM AND
PRESSURE FIELDS INDICATE A WEAK LL RESPONSE WITH ENSUING CONVERGENCE
OVER THE SE FA. THIS COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW SHRA/TS OVER THE FAR SE...A SIGNAL THAT HAS BEEN
HINTED AT IN THE HIRES MODELS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. HAVE DECIDE
TO ADD A SMALL POP SCENTRAL IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW MODEL SOLUTIONS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION LATE WED MORNING...BUT OPTED
FOR A MENTION CLOSER TO PEAK HEATING. LINGERING MOISTURE WITH MID
RIDGE CONVERGENCE MAY ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLD SHRA OVER THE CENTRAL
ANS SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS. HOWEVER...LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
PRECLUDES A POP/WX MENTION THERE. BUMPED TEMPS UP IN THE EAST GIVEN
ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS...ESP AROUND THE PHP-ICR AREA. A FEW
LINGERING SHRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER SCNTRL AREAS INTO THE EVENING IF
ACTIVITY DOES DEVELOP WED AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WED NIGHT ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BUT MODELS ARE INDICATING A SLOW TRANSITION
TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF WAVES MAY PUSH
THROUGH THE FLOW SLOWLY...BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE...AND BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN A SLIGHT WARMING TREND
IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 517 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

ISOLATED -TSRA WILL END OVER NORTHEAST WY/FAR SOUTHWEST SD/NORTH
CENTRAL SD THIS EVENING. LOCAL MVFR CIGS IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...HELGESON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 300033
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
633 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LATEST RADAR/VISIBLE LOOPS SHOWED ISOLATED -TSRA DROPPING INTO
CENTRAL SD AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOUR OVER
CENTRAL ND. REGION ALSO UNDER THE TAIL END OF 70KT JET STREAK.
FORECAST UPDATED TO BRING LOW POPS FOR THOSE AREAS. SHOULD NOT
MAKE IT TOO FAR INTO CWA GIVEN 00Z KUNR SOUNDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AND GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG FETCH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MONSOON FLOW WITH MID-HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE
PERIPHERY. ONE SUCH IMPULSE IS IN THE PROCESS OF SLOWLY EXITING
THE FAR SW FA...WITH SHRA CHANCES WANING THROUGH EVENING.
MEANWHILE...COMPACT WEAK VORT LOBES ARE EVIDENT ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH...ONE CURRENTLY SUPPORTING SCT
SHRA/TS OVER NORTHERN ND. THESE FEATURES WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE SOUTH
INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS...SUPPORTING A WEAK LL PRESSURE RESPONSE
AND INCREASED CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY IN THEIR VICINITY.

TONIGHT...MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOUTH AWAY FROM
THE WESTERN FA. SOME LINGERING SHRA ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING THERE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SUPPORT
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND SOME 40S
EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK VORT LOBES WILL ADVECT INTO CENTRAL
SD WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET ALOFT. MODEL MOMENTUM AND
PRESSURE FIELDS INDICATE A WEAK LL RESPONSE WITH ENSUING CONVERGENCE
OVER THE SE FA. THIS COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW SHRA/TS OVER THE FAR SE...A SIGNAL THAT HAS BEEN
HINTED AT IN THE HIRES MODELS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. HAVE DECIDE
TO ADD A SMALL POP SCENTRAL IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW MODEL SOLUTIONS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION LATE WED MORNING...BUT OPTED
FOR A MENTION CLOSER TO PEAK HEATING. LINGERING MOISTURE WITH MID
RIDGE CONVERGENCE MAY ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLD SHRA OVER THE CENTRAL
ANS SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS. HOWEVER...LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
PRECLUDES A POP/WX MENTION THERE. BUMPED TEMPS UP IN THE EAST GIVEN
ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS...ESP AROUND THE PHP-ICR AREA. A FEW
LINGERING SHRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER SCNTRL AREAS INTO THE EVENING IF
ACTIVITY DOES DEVELOP WED AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WED NIGHT ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BUT MODELS ARE INDICATING A SLOW TRANSITION
TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF WAVES MAY PUSH
THROUGH THE FLOW SLOWLY...BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE...AND BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN A SLIGHT WARMING TREND
IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 517 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

ISOLATED -TSRA WILL END OVER NORTHEAST WY/FAR SOUTHWEST SD/NORTH
CENTRAL SD THIS EVENING. LOCAL MVFR CIGS IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...HELGESON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 300033
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
633 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LATEST RADAR/VISIBLE LOOPS SHOWED ISOLATED -TSRA DROPPING INTO
CENTRAL SD AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOUR OVER
CENTRAL ND. REGION ALSO UNDER THE TAIL END OF 70KT JET STREAK.
FORECAST UPDATED TO BRING LOW POPS FOR THOSE AREAS. SHOULD NOT
MAKE IT TOO FAR INTO CWA GIVEN 00Z KUNR SOUNDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AND GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG FETCH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MONSOON FLOW WITH MID-HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE
PERIPHERY. ONE SUCH IMPULSE IS IN THE PROCESS OF SLOWLY EXITING
THE FAR SW FA...WITH SHRA CHANCES WANING THROUGH EVENING.
MEANWHILE...COMPACT WEAK VORT LOBES ARE EVIDENT ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH...ONE CURRENTLY SUPPORTING SCT
SHRA/TS OVER NORTHERN ND. THESE FEATURES WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE SOUTH
INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS...SUPPORTING A WEAK LL PRESSURE RESPONSE
AND INCREASED CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY IN THEIR VICINITY.

TONIGHT...MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOUTH AWAY FROM
THE WESTERN FA. SOME LINGERING SHRA ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING THERE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SUPPORT
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND SOME 40S
EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK VORT LOBES WILL ADVECT INTO CENTRAL
SD WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET ALOFT. MODEL MOMENTUM AND
PRESSURE FIELDS INDICATE A WEAK LL RESPONSE WITH ENSUING CONVERGENCE
OVER THE SE FA. THIS COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW SHRA/TS OVER THE FAR SE...A SIGNAL THAT HAS BEEN
HINTED AT IN THE HIRES MODELS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. HAVE DECIDE
TO ADD A SMALL POP SCENTRAL IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW MODEL SOLUTIONS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION LATE WED MORNING...BUT OPTED
FOR A MENTION CLOSER TO PEAK HEATING. LINGERING MOISTURE WITH MID
RIDGE CONVERGENCE MAY ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLD SHRA OVER THE CENTRAL
ANS SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS. HOWEVER...LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
PRECLUDES A POP/WX MENTION THERE. BUMPED TEMPS UP IN THE EAST GIVEN
ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS...ESP AROUND THE PHP-ICR AREA. A FEW
LINGERING SHRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER SCNTRL AREAS INTO THE EVENING IF
ACTIVITY DOES DEVELOP WED AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WED NIGHT ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BUT MODELS ARE INDICATING A SLOW TRANSITION
TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF WAVES MAY PUSH
THROUGH THE FLOW SLOWLY...BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE...AND BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN A SLIGHT WARMING TREND
IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 517 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

ISOLATED -TSRA WILL END OVER NORTHEAST WY/FAR SOUTHWEST SD/NORTH
CENTRAL SD THIS EVENING. LOCAL MVFR CIGS IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...HELGESON





000
FXUS65 KCYS 292328
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
528 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HEAVY RAIN EVENT JUST STARTING WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
ALBANY COUNTY NEAR LARAMIE AND UP NEAR SHIRLEY BASIN AT NOON
TODAY. STORMS ARE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. PLEASE SEE HYDRO
SECTION BELOW. FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF
HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR SHOWING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
NORTHEASTERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING
STATIONARY FRONT LAYING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING TO JUST NORTH
OF RAWLINS...THEN SOUTHEAST BY SARATOGA...INTO NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO. MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS MOST OF WESTERN WYOMING UNDER
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH NORTHERN COLORADO FILLING IN THE PAST FEW
IMAGES. STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CWFA ARE VERY SLOW
MOVING...WITH A GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWEST MOVEMENT OF 5-10KT OR
LESS.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FILL IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...SPILLING OVER INTO THE EAST SLOPES
AFTER 22Z TODAY. PWATS HERE AT CHEYENNE CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS
AFTERNOON...UP TO 1.36 INCHES BY MID EVENING. VERY SLOW MOVEMENT
ON CELLS..UNDER 10KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

VERY STRONG UPSLOPING WINDS THIS EVENING. GFS AND NAM SHOWING 20KT
AT 700MBS THIS EVENING. SO WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD
UPSLOPING EVENT FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THINK THAT WE
WILL SEE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM EVENT WITH MODERATE
RAIN...MAYBE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE STRATUS.
WENT AHEAD AND UPPED POPS AND CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH INTO COLORADO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. RAIN TO COME
TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES AND A LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER
THE OTHER TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
RELATIVELY STRONG TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...THIS
PATTERN IS TYPICAL FOR EARLY AUGUST WITH MONSOON FLOW OVER THE
WEST. THEREFORE...CAN NOT RULE OUT A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS SHOW PW/S INCREASING OVER ONE INCH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH DECENT LLVL INSTABILITY. WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND TSTORMS AS WELL
FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. KEPT POP BETWEEN 20 TO 40 PERCENT
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S.
SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COOL
FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION AND TSTORM CHANCES INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ALL
MODELS SHOWING A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH. THE AXIS OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE RIGHT ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS
SHORTWAVE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL.
CONTINUED TO INCREASE POP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A FAVORABLE HEAVY
RAINFALL PATTERN WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AND GOOD
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA. LOWERED TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN...WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KCDR AND KAIA
WHICH WILL LIKELY BE NORTH OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BECOME ISOLATED AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO HEAVY RAIN...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR FOG AND LOW CEILINGS
NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE AS A
700MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE COLORADO/WYOMING BORDER TONIGHT. THIS
MAY RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SURFACE WINDS AND WIND DRIVEN RAIN
FROM KCYS TO KRWL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM COMBINED
WITH MONSOON MOISTURE WILL GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL
BE ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE A GENERAL 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NEW
MOISTURE WILL MITIGATE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WYZ103-106-112-
     114>118.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB








000
FXUS65 KCYS 292328
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
528 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HEAVY RAIN EVENT JUST STARTING WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
ALBANY COUNTY NEAR LARAMIE AND UP NEAR SHIRLEY BASIN AT NOON
TODAY. STORMS ARE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. PLEASE SEE HYDRO
SECTION BELOW. FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF
HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR SHOWING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
NORTHEASTERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING
STATIONARY FRONT LAYING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING TO JUST NORTH
OF RAWLINS...THEN SOUTHEAST BY SARATOGA...INTO NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO. MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS MOST OF WESTERN WYOMING UNDER
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH NORTHERN COLORADO FILLING IN THE PAST FEW
IMAGES. STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CWFA ARE VERY SLOW
MOVING...WITH A GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWEST MOVEMENT OF 5-10KT OR
LESS.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FILL IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...SPILLING OVER INTO THE EAST SLOPES
AFTER 22Z TODAY. PWATS HERE AT CHEYENNE CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS
AFTERNOON...UP TO 1.36 INCHES BY MID EVENING. VERY SLOW MOVEMENT
ON CELLS..UNDER 10KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

VERY STRONG UPSLOPING WINDS THIS EVENING. GFS AND NAM SHOWING 20KT
AT 700MBS THIS EVENING. SO WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD
UPSLOPING EVENT FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THINK THAT WE
WILL SEE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM EVENT WITH MODERATE
RAIN...MAYBE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE STRATUS.
WENT AHEAD AND UPPED POPS AND CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH INTO COLORADO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. RAIN TO COME
TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES AND A LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER
THE OTHER TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
RELATIVELY STRONG TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...THIS
PATTERN IS TYPICAL FOR EARLY AUGUST WITH MONSOON FLOW OVER THE
WEST. THEREFORE...CAN NOT RULE OUT A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS SHOW PW/S INCREASING OVER ONE INCH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH DECENT LLVL INSTABILITY. WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND TSTORMS AS WELL
FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. KEPT POP BETWEEN 20 TO 40 PERCENT
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S.
SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COOL
FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION AND TSTORM CHANCES INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ALL
MODELS SHOWING A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH. THE AXIS OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE RIGHT ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS
SHORTWAVE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL.
CONTINUED TO INCREASE POP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A FAVORABLE HEAVY
RAINFALL PATTERN WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AND GOOD
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA. LOWERED TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN...WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KCDR AND KAIA
WHICH WILL LIKELY BE NORTH OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BECOME ISOLATED AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO HEAVY RAIN...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR FOG AND LOW CEILINGS
NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE AS A
700MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE COLORADO/WYOMING BORDER TONIGHT. THIS
MAY RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SURFACE WINDS AND WIND DRIVEN RAIN
FROM KCYS TO KRWL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM COMBINED
WITH MONSOON MOISTURE WILL GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL
BE ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE A GENERAL 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NEW
MOISTURE WILL MITIGATE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WYZ103-106-112-
     114>118.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB








000
FXUS65 KCYS 292328
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
528 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HEAVY RAIN EVENT JUST STARTING WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
ALBANY COUNTY NEAR LARAMIE AND UP NEAR SHIRLEY BASIN AT NOON
TODAY. STORMS ARE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. PLEASE SEE HYDRO
SECTION BELOW. FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF
HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR SHOWING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
NORTHEASTERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING
STATIONARY FRONT LAYING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING TO JUST NORTH
OF RAWLINS...THEN SOUTHEAST BY SARATOGA...INTO NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO. MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS MOST OF WESTERN WYOMING UNDER
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH NORTHERN COLORADO FILLING IN THE PAST FEW
IMAGES. STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CWFA ARE VERY SLOW
MOVING...WITH A GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWEST MOVEMENT OF 5-10KT OR
LESS.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FILL IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...SPILLING OVER INTO THE EAST SLOPES
AFTER 22Z TODAY. PWATS HERE AT CHEYENNE CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS
AFTERNOON...UP TO 1.36 INCHES BY MID EVENING. VERY SLOW MOVEMENT
ON CELLS..UNDER 10KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

VERY STRONG UPSLOPING WINDS THIS EVENING. GFS AND NAM SHOWING 20KT
AT 700MBS THIS EVENING. SO WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD
UPSLOPING EVENT FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THINK THAT WE
WILL SEE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM EVENT WITH MODERATE
RAIN...MAYBE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE STRATUS.
WENT AHEAD AND UPPED POPS AND CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH INTO COLORADO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. RAIN TO COME
TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES AND A LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER
THE OTHER TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
RELATIVELY STRONG TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...THIS
PATTERN IS TYPICAL FOR EARLY AUGUST WITH MONSOON FLOW OVER THE
WEST. THEREFORE...CAN NOT RULE OUT A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS SHOW PW/S INCREASING OVER ONE INCH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH DECENT LLVL INSTABILITY. WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND TSTORMS AS WELL
FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. KEPT POP BETWEEN 20 TO 40 PERCENT
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S.
SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COOL
FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION AND TSTORM CHANCES INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ALL
MODELS SHOWING A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH. THE AXIS OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE RIGHT ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS
SHORTWAVE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL.
CONTINUED TO INCREASE POP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A FAVORABLE HEAVY
RAINFALL PATTERN WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AND GOOD
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA. LOWERED TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN...WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KCDR AND KAIA
WHICH WILL LIKELY BE NORTH OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BECOME ISOLATED AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO HEAVY RAIN...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR FOG AND LOW CEILINGS
NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE AS A
700MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE COLORADO/WYOMING BORDER TONIGHT. THIS
MAY RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SURFACE WINDS AND WIND DRIVEN RAIN
FROM KCYS TO KRWL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM COMBINED
WITH MONSOON MOISTURE WILL GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL
BE ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE A GENERAL 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NEW
MOISTURE WILL MITIGATE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WYZ103-106-112-
     114>118.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB








000
FXUS65 KCYS 292328
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
528 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HEAVY RAIN EVENT JUST STARTING WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
ALBANY COUNTY NEAR LARAMIE AND UP NEAR SHIRLEY BASIN AT NOON
TODAY. STORMS ARE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. PLEASE SEE HYDRO
SECTION BELOW. FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF
HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR SHOWING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
NORTHEASTERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING
STATIONARY FRONT LAYING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING TO JUST NORTH
OF RAWLINS...THEN SOUTHEAST BY SARATOGA...INTO NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO. MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS MOST OF WESTERN WYOMING UNDER
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH NORTHERN COLORADO FILLING IN THE PAST FEW
IMAGES. STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CWFA ARE VERY SLOW
MOVING...WITH A GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWEST MOVEMENT OF 5-10KT OR
LESS.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FILL IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...SPILLING OVER INTO THE EAST SLOPES
AFTER 22Z TODAY. PWATS HERE AT CHEYENNE CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS
AFTERNOON...UP TO 1.36 INCHES BY MID EVENING. VERY SLOW MOVEMENT
ON CELLS..UNDER 10KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

VERY STRONG UPSLOPING WINDS THIS EVENING. GFS AND NAM SHOWING 20KT
AT 700MBS THIS EVENING. SO WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD
UPSLOPING EVENT FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THINK THAT WE
WILL SEE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM EVENT WITH MODERATE
RAIN...MAYBE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE STRATUS.
WENT AHEAD AND UPPED POPS AND CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH INTO COLORADO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. RAIN TO COME
TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES AND A LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER
THE OTHER TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
RELATIVELY STRONG TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...THIS
PATTERN IS TYPICAL FOR EARLY AUGUST WITH MONSOON FLOW OVER THE
WEST. THEREFORE...CAN NOT RULE OUT A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS SHOW PW/S INCREASING OVER ONE INCH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH DECENT LLVL INSTABILITY. WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND TSTORMS AS WELL
FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. KEPT POP BETWEEN 20 TO 40 PERCENT
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S.
SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COOL
FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION AND TSTORM CHANCES INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ALL
MODELS SHOWING A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH. THE AXIS OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE RIGHT ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS
SHORTWAVE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL.
CONTINUED TO INCREASE POP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A FAVORABLE HEAVY
RAINFALL PATTERN WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AND GOOD
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA. LOWERED TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN...WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KCDR AND KAIA
WHICH WILL LIKELY BE NORTH OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BECOME ISOLATED AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO HEAVY RAIN...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR FOG AND LOW CEILINGS
NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE AS A
700MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE COLORADO/WYOMING BORDER TONIGHT. THIS
MAY RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SURFACE WINDS AND WIND DRIVEN RAIN
FROM KCYS TO KRWL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM COMBINED
WITH MONSOON MOISTURE WILL GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL
BE ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE A GENERAL 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NEW
MOISTURE WILL MITIGATE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WYZ103-106-112-
     114>118.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB








000
FXUS63 KUNR 292318
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
518 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AND GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG FETCH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MONSOON FLOW WITH MID-HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE
PERIPHERY. ONE SUCH IMPULSE IS IN THE PROCESS OF SLOWLY EXITING
THE FAR SW FA...WITH SHRA CHANCES WANING THROUGH EVENING.
MEANWHILE...COMPACT WEAK VORT LOBES ARE EVIDENT ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH...ONE CURRENTLY SUPPORTING SCT
SHRA/TS OVER NORTHERN ND. THESE FEATURES WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE SOUTH
INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS...SUPPORTING A WEAK LL PRESSURE RESPONSE
AND INCREASED CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY IN THEIR VICINITY.

TONIGHT...MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOUTH AWAY FROM
THE WESTERN FA. SOME LINGERING SHRA ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING THERE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SUPPORT
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND SOME 40S
EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK VORT LOBES WILL ADVECT INTO CENTRAL
SD WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET ALOFT. MODEL MOMENTUM AND
PRESSURE FIELDS INDICATE A WEAK LL RESPONSE WITH ENSUING CONVERGENCE
OVER THE SE FA. THIS COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW SHRA/TS OVER THE FAR SE...A SIGNAL THAT HAS BEEN
HINTED AT IN THE HIRES MODELS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. HAVE DECIDE
TO ADD A SMALL POP SCENTRAL IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW MODEL SOLUTIONS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION LATE WED MORNING...BUT OPTED
FOR A MENTION CLOSER TO PEAK HEATING. LINGERING MOISTURE WITH MID
RIDGE CONVERGENCE MAY ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLD SHRA OVER THE CENTRAL
ANS SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS. HOWEVER...LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
PRECLUDES A POP/WX MENTION THERE. BUMPED TEMPS UP IN THE EAST GIVEN
ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS...ESP AROUND THE PHP-ICR AREA. A FEW
LINGERING SHRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER SCNTRL AREAS INTO THE EVENING IF
ACTIVITY DOES DEVELOP WED AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WED NIGHT ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BUT MODELS ARE INDICATING A SLOW TRANSITION
TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF WAVES MAY PUSH
THROUGH THE FLOW SLOWLY...BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE...AND BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN A SLIGHT WARMING TREND
IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 517 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

ISOLATED -TSRA WILL END OVER NORTHEAST WY/SOUTHWEST SD THIS
EVENING. LOCAL MVFR CIGS IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...HELGESON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 292318
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
518 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AND GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG FETCH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MONSOON FLOW WITH MID-HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE
PERIPHERY. ONE SUCH IMPULSE IS IN THE PROCESS OF SLOWLY EXITING
THE FAR SW FA...WITH SHRA CHANCES WANING THROUGH EVENING.
MEANWHILE...COMPACT WEAK VORT LOBES ARE EVIDENT ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH...ONE CURRENTLY SUPPORTING SCT
SHRA/TS OVER NORTHERN ND. THESE FEATURES WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE SOUTH
INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS...SUPPORTING A WEAK LL PRESSURE RESPONSE
AND INCREASED CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY IN THEIR VICINITY.

TONIGHT...MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOUTH AWAY FROM
THE WESTERN FA. SOME LINGERING SHRA ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING THERE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SUPPORT
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND SOME 40S
EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK VORT LOBES WILL ADVECT INTO CENTRAL
SD WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET ALOFT. MODEL MOMENTUM AND
PRESSURE FIELDS INDICATE A WEAK LL RESPONSE WITH ENSUING CONVERGENCE
OVER THE SE FA. THIS COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW SHRA/TS OVER THE FAR SE...A SIGNAL THAT HAS BEEN
HINTED AT IN THE HIRES MODELS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. HAVE DECIDE
TO ADD A SMALL POP SCENTRAL IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW MODEL SOLUTIONS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION LATE WED MORNING...BUT OPTED
FOR A MENTION CLOSER TO PEAK HEATING. LINGERING MOISTURE WITH MID
RIDGE CONVERGENCE MAY ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLD SHRA OVER THE CENTRAL
ANS SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS. HOWEVER...LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
PRECLUDES A POP/WX MENTION THERE. BUMPED TEMPS UP IN THE EAST GIVEN
ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS...ESP AROUND THE PHP-ICR AREA. A FEW
LINGERING SHRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER SCNTRL AREAS INTO THE EVENING IF
ACTIVITY DOES DEVELOP WED AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WED NIGHT ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BUT MODELS ARE INDICATING A SLOW TRANSITION
TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF WAVES MAY PUSH
THROUGH THE FLOW SLOWLY...BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE...AND BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN A SLIGHT WARMING TREND
IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 517 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

ISOLATED -TSRA WILL END OVER NORTHEAST WY/SOUTHWEST SD THIS
EVENING. LOCAL MVFR CIGS IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS65 KCYS 292110
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
310 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HEAVY RAIN EVENT JUST STARTING WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
ALBANY COUNTY NEAR LARAMIE AND UP NEAR SHIRLEY BASIN AT NOON
TODAY. STORMS ARE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. PLEASE SEE HYDRO
SECTION BELOW. FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF
HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR SHOWING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
NORTHEASTERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING
STATIONARY FRONT LAYING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING TO JUST NORTH
OF RAWLINS...THEN SOUTHEAST BY SARATOGA...INTO NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO. MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS MOST OF WESTERN WYOMING UNDER
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH NORTHERN COLORADO FILLING IN THE PAST FEW
IMAGES. STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CWFA ARE VERY SLOW
MOVING...WITH A GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWEST MOVEMENT OF 5-10KTS OR
LESS.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FILL IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...SPILLING OVER INTO THE EAST SLOPES
AFTER 22Z TODAY. PWATS HERE AT CHEYENNE CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS
AFTERNOON...UP TO 1.36 INCHES BY MID EVENING. VERY SLOW MOVEMENT
ON CELLS..UNDER 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

VERY STRONG UPSLOPING WINDS THIS EVENING. GFS AND NAM SHOWING 20KT
AT 700MBS THIS EVENING. SO WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD
UPSLOPING EVENT FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THINK THAT WE
WILL SEE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM EVENT WITH MODERATE
RAIN...MAYBE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE STRATUS.
WENT AHEAD AND UPPED POPS AND CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH INTO COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
RAIN ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. RAIN TO COME TO AN END BY
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES AND A LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER
THE OTHER TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
RELATIVELY STRONG TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...THIS
PATTERN IS TYPICAL FOR EARLY AUGUST WITH MONSOON FLOW OVER THE
WEST. THEREFORE...CAN NOT RULE OUT A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS SHOW PW/S INCREASING OVER ONE INCH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH DECENT LLVL INSTABILITY. WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND TSTORMS AS WELL
FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. KEPT POP BETWEEN 20 TO 40 PERCENT
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S.
SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COOL
FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION AND TSTORM CHANCES INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ALL
MODELS SHOWING A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH. THE AXIS OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE RIGHT ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS
SHORTWAVE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL.
CONTINUED TO INCREASE POP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A FAVORABLE HEAVY
RAINFALL PATTERN WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AND GOOD
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA. LOWERED TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE THIS
EVENING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCDR AND
KAIA WHICH WILL LIKELY BE NORTH OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ISOLATED AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MOST TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA. KEPT IFR VIS DUE TO VERY HEAVY
RAIN...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR FOG AND LOW CIGS NEAR THE LARAMIE
RANGE. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION...LLVL WINDS WILL INCREASE NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE AS A
700MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE COLORADO/WYOMING BORDER TONIGHT. THIS
MAY RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SURFACE WINDS AND WIND DRIVEN RAIN FROM
KCYS...WESTWARD TO KRWL TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM COMBINED
WITH MONSOON MOISTURE WILL GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL
BE ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE A GENERAL 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NEW
MOISTURE WILL MITIGATE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

ALMOST A TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT OVER THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS
ARE PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN FALL AMOUNTS. FOR EXAMPLE...LARAMIE
RECEIVED OVER A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IN 45 MINUTES AND A REPORT
TO THE NORTHEAST OF LARAMIE SHOWED ALMOST .9 INCHES OF RAIN IN
JUST 35 MINUTES. FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK WITH HEAVY RAIN
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. THINK WE WILL
BE SEEING MANY LOCATIONS WITH 1+ INCHES OF RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WYZ103-106-112-
     114>118.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB
HYDROLOGY...CLAYCOMB










000
FXUS65 KCYS 292110
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
310 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HEAVY RAIN EVENT JUST STARTING WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
ALBANY COUNTY NEAR LARAMIE AND UP NEAR SHIRLEY BASIN AT NOON
TODAY. STORMS ARE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. PLEASE SEE HYDRO
SECTION BELOW. FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF
HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR SHOWING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
NORTHEASTERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING
STATIONARY FRONT LAYING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING TO JUST NORTH
OF RAWLINS...THEN SOUTHEAST BY SARATOGA...INTO NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO. MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS MOST OF WESTERN WYOMING UNDER
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH NORTHERN COLORADO FILLING IN THE PAST FEW
IMAGES. STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CWFA ARE VERY SLOW
MOVING...WITH A GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWEST MOVEMENT OF 5-10KTS OR
LESS.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FILL IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...SPILLING OVER INTO THE EAST SLOPES
AFTER 22Z TODAY. PWATS HERE AT CHEYENNE CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS
AFTERNOON...UP TO 1.36 INCHES BY MID EVENING. VERY SLOW MOVEMENT
ON CELLS..UNDER 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

VERY STRONG UPSLOPING WINDS THIS EVENING. GFS AND NAM SHOWING 20KT
AT 700MBS THIS EVENING. SO WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD
UPSLOPING EVENT FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THINK THAT WE
WILL SEE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM EVENT WITH MODERATE
RAIN...MAYBE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE STRATUS.
WENT AHEAD AND UPPED POPS AND CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH INTO COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
RAIN ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. RAIN TO COME TO AN END BY
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES AND A LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER
THE OTHER TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
RELATIVELY STRONG TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...THIS
PATTERN IS TYPICAL FOR EARLY AUGUST WITH MONSOON FLOW OVER THE
WEST. THEREFORE...CAN NOT RULE OUT A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS SHOW PW/S INCREASING OVER ONE INCH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH DECENT LLVL INSTABILITY. WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND TSTORMS AS WELL
FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. KEPT POP BETWEEN 20 TO 40 PERCENT
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S.
SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COOL
FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION AND TSTORM CHANCES INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ALL
MODELS SHOWING A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH. THE AXIS OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE RIGHT ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS
SHORTWAVE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL.
CONTINUED TO INCREASE POP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A FAVORABLE HEAVY
RAINFALL PATTERN WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AND GOOD
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA. LOWERED TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE THIS
EVENING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCDR AND
KAIA WHICH WILL LIKELY BE NORTH OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ISOLATED AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MOST TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA. KEPT IFR VIS DUE TO VERY HEAVY
RAIN...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR FOG AND LOW CIGS NEAR THE LARAMIE
RANGE. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION...LLVL WINDS WILL INCREASE NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE AS A
700MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE COLORADO/WYOMING BORDER TONIGHT. THIS
MAY RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SURFACE WINDS AND WIND DRIVEN RAIN FROM
KCYS...WESTWARD TO KRWL TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM COMBINED
WITH MONSOON MOISTURE WILL GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL
BE ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE A GENERAL 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NEW
MOISTURE WILL MITIGATE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

ALMOST A TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT OVER THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS
ARE PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN FALL AMOUNTS. FOR EXAMPLE...LARAMIE
RECEIVED OVER A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IN 45 MINUTES AND A REPORT
TO THE NORTHEAST OF LARAMIE SHOWED ALMOST .9 INCHES OF RAIN IN
JUST 35 MINUTES. FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK WITH HEAVY RAIN
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. THINK WE WILL
BE SEEING MANY LOCATIONS WITH 1+ INCHES OF RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WYZ103-106-112-
     114>118.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB
HYDROLOGY...CLAYCOMB









000
FXUS65 KRIW 292109
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
309 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A DEEP PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE HAS MOVED OVER THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA. WITH SOME UPLIFT PROVIDED BY A MID LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS
UTAH MANY AREAS HAVE BEEN SEEING SHOWERY RAINS THROUGH THE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE GOOD PART ABOUT THIS IS THAT OVER
A MAJORITY OF THE AREA THERE HAS BEEN A MAINLY OVERCAST SKY THAT HAS
LIMITED INSTABILITY. AS A RESULT...MOST OF THE RAIN HAS BEEN OF THE
LIGHT TO MODERATE VARIETY WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE
EXCEPTION SO FAR HAS BEEN SOUTHERN NATRONA COUNTY WHERE A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED OVER CASPER MOUNTAIN. SOME CLEARING HAS BEEN
TRYING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING BUT ANY BREAKS SO FAR
HAVE CLOSED AS QUICKLY AS THEY HAVE FORMED. AS A RESULT...WE EXPECT
LITTLE SEVERE WEATHER. THE MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE FLOODING WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING WELL OVER AN INCH. WITH THE
STRATIFORM NATURE OF THE RAIN...WE HAVE DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING A
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT.

MODELS HAVE DIFFERING OPINIONS ON HOW FAST THE DEEPER MOISTURE GETS
MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. THE NAM HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH KEEPING DEEP
MOISTURE OVER AREAS SOUTH OF THE OWL CREEK RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER WITH PUSHING THE DEEP MOISTURE
OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND 9Z. AT THIS POINT... CONTINUITY LOOKED
LIKE A DECENT SOLUTION. AS A RESULT WE KEPT THE HEAVY RAIN WORDING
THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND TAPERED THINGS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.

IT IS THE SAME PROBLEM FOR WEDNESDAY. THE NAM KEEPS MORE MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A DECENT AMOUNT LESS THAN TODAY. IT HAS
CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA. THE GFS IS ONCE AGAIN THE DRIER MODEL IN BRINGING IN DRIER AIR
FURTHER SOUTH AND CONFINES ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. ONCE AGAIN...WITH
THE UNCERTAINTY CONTINUITY LOOKED LIKE A REASONABLE COMPROMISE SO WE
MADE FEW CHANGES. WITH MORE SUNSHINE TOMORROW...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE WARMER THAN TODAY BY AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BUT STILL BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE END OF JULY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

WEAK OR DIRTY RIDGE OVER FORECAST AREA MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS GENERALLY MEANS THERE WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND LIFT FROM TERRAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WYOMING. FACTORING IN
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT...DAYTIME HIGHS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE SIMILAR...OR NEAR NORMAL...FROM DAY TO DAY.

POSSIBLE INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE DIVIDE PER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS.
COULD RESULT IN HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE WEST. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
MILD. PATTERN THEN LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH THIS RIDGE FLATTENING AND
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER WEST CENTRAL WYOMING.
THEREFORE...MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS MAINLY SOUTH OF A KJAC TO KWRL TO KCPR LINE.  ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE VARIABLE DUE TO THE CONVECTION...PREVAILING WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE EASTERLY. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY END FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN 03Z AND
09Z...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE WIND RIVER RANGE AS DRIER PRESSES IN
FROM MONTANA BUT THE CHANCE OF SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY THIS EVENING. SOMEWHAT MORE SETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KCPR TO KRIW TO YELLOWSTONE
PARK...MAINLY OF THE ISOLATED VARIETY.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A MORE SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN...HELPING TO ALLEVIATE SOME
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY ALTHOUGH NOT AS HEAVY OR AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR MOST AREAS.
&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...KPL
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS





000
FXUS65 KRIW 292109
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
309 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A DEEP PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE HAS MOVED OVER THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA. WITH SOME UPLIFT PROVIDED BY A MID LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS
UTAH MANY AREAS HAVE BEEN SEEING SHOWERY RAINS THROUGH THE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE GOOD PART ABOUT THIS IS THAT OVER
A MAJORITY OF THE AREA THERE HAS BEEN A MAINLY OVERCAST SKY THAT HAS
LIMITED INSTABILITY. AS A RESULT...MOST OF THE RAIN HAS BEEN OF THE
LIGHT TO MODERATE VARIETY WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE
EXCEPTION SO FAR HAS BEEN SOUTHERN NATRONA COUNTY WHERE A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED OVER CASPER MOUNTAIN. SOME CLEARING HAS BEEN
TRYING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING BUT ANY BREAKS SO FAR
HAVE CLOSED AS QUICKLY AS THEY HAVE FORMED. AS A RESULT...WE EXPECT
LITTLE SEVERE WEATHER. THE MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE FLOODING WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING WELL OVER AN INCH. WITH THE
STRATIFORM NATURE OF THE RAIN...WE HAVE DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING A
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT.

MODELS HAVE DIFFERING OPINIONS ON HOW FAST THE DEEPER MOISTURE GETS
MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. THE NAM HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH KEEPING DEEP
MOISTURE OVER AREAS SOUTH OF THE OWL CREEK RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER WITH PUSHING THE DEEP MOISTURE
OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND 9Z. AT THIS POINT... CONTINUITY LOOKED
LIKE A DECENT SOLUTION. AS A RESULT WE KEPT THE HEAVY RAIN WORDING
THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND TAPERED THINGS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.

IT IS THE SAME PROBLEM FOR WEDNESDAY. THE NAM KEEPS MORE MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A DECENT AMOUNT LESS THAN TODAY. IT HAS
CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA. THE GFS IS ONCE AGAIN THE DRIER MODEL IN BRINGING IN DRIER AIR
FURTHER SOUTH AND CONFINES ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. ONCE AGAIN...WITH
THE UNCERTAINTY CONTINUITY LOOKED LIKE A REASONABLE COMPROMISE SO WE
MADE FEW CHANGES. WITH MORE SUNSHINE TOMORROW...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE WARMER THAN TODAY BY AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BUT STILL BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE END OF JULY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

WEAK OR DIRTY RIDGE OVER FORECAST AREA MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS GENERALLY MEANS THERE WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND LIFT FROM TERRAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WYOMING. FACTORING IN
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT...DAYTIME HIGHS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE SIMILAR...OR NEAR NORMAL...FROM DAY TO DAY.

POSSIBLE INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE DIVIDE PER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS.
COULD RESULT IN HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE WEST. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
MILD. PATTERN THEN LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH THIS RIDGE FLATTENING AND
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER WEST CENTRAL WYOMING.
THEREFORE...MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS MAINLY SOUTH OF A KJAC TO KWRL TO KCPR LINE.  ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE VARIABLE DUE TO THE CONVECTION...PREVAILING WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE EASTERLY. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY END FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN 03Z AND
09Z...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE WIND RIVER RANGE AS DRIER PRESSES IN
FROM MONTANA BUT THE CHANCE OF SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY THIS EVENING. SOMEWHAT MORE SETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KCPR TO KRIW TO YELLOWSTONE
PARK...MAINLY OF THE ISOLATED VARIETY.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A MORE SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN...HELPING TO ALLEVIATE SOME
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY ALTHOUGH NOT AS HEAVY OR AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR MOST AREAS.
&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...KPL
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS






000
FXUS63 KUNR 292013
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
213 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AND GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG FETCH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MONSOON FLOW WITH
MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE
RIDGE PERIPHERY. ONE SUCH IMPULSE IS IN THE PROCESS OF SLOWLY
EXITING THE FAR SW FA...WITH SHRA CHANCES WANING THROUGH EVENING.
MEANWHILE...COMPACT WEAK VORT LOBES ARE EVIDENT ON THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH...ONE CURRENTLY SUPPORTING SCT SHRA/TS
OVER NORTHERN ND. THESE FEATURES WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE SOUTH INTO THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS...SUPPORTING A WEAK LL PRESSURE RESPONSE AND
INCREASED CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY IN THEIR VICINITY.

TONIGHT...MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOUTH AWAY FROM
THE WESTERN FA. SOME LINGERING SHRA ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING THERE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SUPPORT
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND SOME 40S
EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK VORT LOBES WILL ADVECT INTO CENTRAL
SD WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET ALOFT. MODEL MOMENTUM AND
PRESSURE FIELDS INDICATE A WEAK LL RESPONSE WITH ENSUING CONVERGENCE
OVER THE SE FA. THIS COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW SHRA/TS OVER THE FAR SE...A SIGNAL THAT HAS BEEN
HINTED AT IN THE HIRES MODELS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. HAVE DECIDE
TO ADD A SMALL POP SCENTRAL IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW MODEL SOLUTIONS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION LATE WED MORNING...BUT OPTED
FOR A MENTION CLOSER TO PEAK HEATING. LINGERING MOISTURE WITH MID
RIDGE CONVERGENCE MAY ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLD SHRA OVER THE CENTRAL
ANS SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS. HOWEVER...LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
PRECLUDES A POP/WX MENTION THERE. BUMPED TEMPS UP IN THE EAST GIVEN
ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS...ESP AROUND THE PHP-ICR AREA. A FEW
LINGERING SHRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER SCNTRL AREAS INTO THE EVENING IF
ACTIVITY DOES DEVELOP WED AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WED NIGHT ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BUT MODELS ARE INDICATING A SLOW TRANSITION
TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF WAVES MAY PUSH
THROUGH THE FLOW SLOWLY...BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE...AND BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN A SLIGHT WARMING TREND
IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SCATTERED -SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA OVER NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTHWEST SD
THROUGH WILL END THIS EVENING. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
PRECIPITATION. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13






000
FXUS63 KUNR 292013
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
213 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AND GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG FETCH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MONSOON FLOW WITH
MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE
RIDGE PERIPHERY. ONE SUCH IMPULSE IS IN THE PROCESS OF SLOWLY
EXITING THE FAR SW FA...WITH SHRA CHANCES WANING THROUGH EVENING.
MEANWHILE...COMPACT WEAK VORT LOBES ARE EVIDENT ON THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH...ONE CURRENTLY SUPPORTING SCT SHRA/TS
OVER NORTHERN ND. THESE FEATURES WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE SOUTH INTO THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS...SUPPORTING A WEAK LL PRESSURE RESPONSE AND
INCREASED CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY IN THEIR VICINITY.

TONIGHT...MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOUTH AWAY FROM
THE WESTERN FA. SOME LINGERING SHRA ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING THERE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SUPPORT
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND SOME 40S
EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK VORT LOBES WILL ADVECT INTO CENTRAL
SD WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET ALOFT. MODEL MOMENTUM AND
PRESSURE FIELDS INDICATE A WEAK LL RESPONSE WITH ENSUING CONVERGENCE
OVER THE SE FA. THIS COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW SHRA/TS OVER THE FAR SE...A SIGNAL THAT HAS BEEN
HINTED AT IN THE HIRES MODELS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. HAVE DECIDE
TO ADD A SMALL POP SCENTRAL IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW MODEL SOLUTIONS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION LATE WED MORNING...BUT OPTED
FOR A MENTION CLOSER TO PEAK HEATING. LINGERING MOISTURE WITH MID
RIDGE CONVERGENCE MAY ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLD SHRA OVER THE CENTRAL
ANS SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS. HOWEVER...LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
PRECLUDES A POP/WX MENTION THERE. BUMPED TEMPS UP IN THE EAST GIVEN
ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS...ESP AROUND THE PHP-ICR AREA. A FEW
LINGERING SHRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER SCNTRL AREAS INTO THE EVENING IF
ACTIVITY DOES DEVELOP WED AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WED NIGHT ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BUT MODELS ARE INDICATING A SLOW TRANSITION
TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF WAVES MAY PUSH
THROUGH THE FLOW SLOWLY...BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE...AND BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN A SLIGHT WARMING TREND
IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SCATTERED -SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA OVER NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTHWEST SD
THROUGH WILL END THIS EVENING. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
PRECIPITATION. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13







000
FXUS63 KUNR 291725
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1125 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ALONG
A NW-SE ORIENTED THETA-E RIDGE LOCATED FROM NORTHEASTERN WYOMING
INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS A WEAK IMPULSE ROUNDS THE RIDGE.
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS SYNPOTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SPREADS OVER THE
REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE AND HAVE
LOWERED PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING BELOW GUIDANCE DUE TO THE
EXPECTATION OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THAT REGION INTO THE
EARLY AFTN. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY AS
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND. COOL NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES. THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS. WEAK FLOW AND LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ACTIVITY TO ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS.
HOWEVER BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE YIELDS TO AN ONSLAUGHT OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND WEAK SYSTEMS ARE ALLOWED INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  HENCE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS
BEEN INCREASED FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SCATTERED -SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHEAST WY
AND SOUTHWEST SD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN PRECIPITATION. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...13






000
FXUS63 KUNR 291725
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1125 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ALONG
A NW-SE ORIENTED THETA-E RIDGE LOCATED FROM NORTHEASTERN WYOMING
INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS A WEAK IMPULSE ROUNDS THE RIDGE.
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS SYNPOTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SPREADS OVER THE
REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE AND HAVE
LOWERED PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING BELOW GUIDANCE DUE TO THE
EXPECTATION OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THAT REGION INTO THE
EARLY AFTN. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY AS
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND. COOL NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES. THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS. WEAK FLOW AND LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ACTIVITY TO ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS.
HOWEVER BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE YIELDS TO AN ONSLAUGHT OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND WEAK SYSTEMS ARE ALLOWED INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  HENCE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS
BEEN INCREASED FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SCATTERED -SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHEAST WY
AND SOUTHWEST SD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN PRECIPITATION. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...13







000
FXUS65 KRIW 291708
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1108 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
TODAY IS LIKELY GOING TO TURN OUT TO BE A COOL WET DAY...NOT BECAUSE
OF COOL AIR ADVECTION...BUT FROM AN ABUNDANCE OF
CLOUDINESS...RAINFALL AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL
BE 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY WERE ON MONDAY IN MANY AREAS. A DEEP
LAYER OF MONSOON MOISTURE WITH MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS WILL PREVENT
SOLAR INSULATION FOR STRONG CONVECTION BUT WILL SUPPLY WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. SINCE CONVECTION WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...DECIDED AGAINST
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ANY LOCATION IN THE CWA BUT WE OPTED TO
MENTION POSSIBLE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH AN SPS. THE MOST
ABUNDANT RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR LOOMING TO THE NORTH OVER MONTANA. A SHORTWAVE RIDING UP
AND OVER THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SPIN OFF AN H5 CLOSED LOW
OVER UTAH/IDAHO WITH MOISTURE ENCASED WITHIN THIS FEATURE. AN ASCT
H7 LOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTHWEST WY WHICH WILL HELP
DRAW IN COOL MOIST GULF AIR FROM THE EAST UNDERCUTTING THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE. SO WITH COOL AIR IN PLACE AND
RESULTANT WEAK CONVECTION...DO NOT THINK WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR. THE MOST DRAMATIC SHORTWAVE AS SEEN ON THE WV LOOP IS
WAY DOWN IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA. SINCE THAT SHORTWAVE WOULD NOT ARRIVE
HERE TODAY OR TONIGHT BASED ON ITS SPEED...WILL NOT BOTHER TRYING TO
TIME THAT FEATURE FOR NOW.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL RETREAT TO THE SOUTH OVER
SOUTHERN WY AS THE H7 LOW DRIFTS TO THE WY/CO BORDER. FRESH
CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER FAR
WESTERN WY AS WEAK IMPULSES RIDE UP AND OVER THE STATIONARY RIDGE.
TEMPS WILL WARM ON WEDNESDAY ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES.

THEN ON THURSDAY THE NEXT PROMINENT SHORTWAVE RIDING UP AND OVER THE
RIDGE WILL SPIN OFF A CLOSED LOW OVER NEVADA AND WILL TRACK TO
IDAHO. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A GOOD CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN WY AND THE BIG HORN MTNS. TEMPS WILL WARM
ANOTHER 5 DEGREES OR SO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH WEATHER SYSTEMS ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER HIGH WHICH STAYS OVER THE ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO
AREA PER THE GFS MODEL. ON THE ECMWF MODEL THE UPPER HIGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST TOWARD TEXAS/EASTERN NEW MEXICO NEXT MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THUS THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING OF
THESE SYSTEMS. THIS MAKES FORECASTING THE DAYS OF A HIGHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MORE DIFFICULT. AT THIS POINT FRIDAY AND NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK MORE ACTIVE THAN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH
MAY SEE ACTIVITY MORE ISOLATED. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION BUT MODEL TIMING IS LIKELY TO CHANGE IN THE COMING DAYS
SO EXPECT REVISIONS TO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK FORECAST.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE BUT ONLY A FEW PLACES REACHING
90 DEGREES ON CERTAIN DAYS. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER SOME DAYS MAY
SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS EAST OF THE
DIVIDE. EXPECT MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WOULD ALSO
EXPECT HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT NIGHT AND DURING THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE EXPECTED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS PATTERN
WILL HOPEFULLY HELP SOME OF THE AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN QUITE DRY
THE PAST MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/
DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND DAYTIME
HEATING WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS...ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A KMTR TO KWRL TO KBYG LINE. WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY AND COULD
KEEP THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE AS SHRA...LIMITING TS COVERAGE. THUS WILL
NOT PREVAIL TS AT ANY TERMINAL...AND ONLY HAVE VCTS AT AREA
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TERMINALS...BUT
UNCERTAINTY AND TIMING PRECLUDE PREVAILING MVFR/IFR AT THIS TIME.
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE DUE TO THE CONVECTION...PREVAILING
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EASTERLY. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY END FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN 03Z AND
09Z...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE WIND RIVER RANGE AS DRIER PRESSES IN
FROM MONTANA. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY THIS EVENING.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A MORE SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF MOISTURE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN...HELPING TO ALLEVIATE SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. ADDITIONALLY...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A CONTINUATION
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON








000
FXUS65 KRIW 291708
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1108 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
TODAY IS LIKELY GOING TO TURN OUT TO BE A COOL WET DAY...NOT BECAUSE
OF COOL AIR ADVECTION...BUT FROM AN ABUNDANCE OF
CLOUDINESS...RAINFALL AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL
BE 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY WERE ON MONDAY IN MANY AREAS. A DEEP
LAYER OF MONSOON MOISTURE WITH MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS WILL PREVENT
SOLAR INSULATION FOR STRONG CONVECTION BUT WILL SUPPLY WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. SINCE CONVECTION WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...DECIDED AGAINST
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ANY LOCATION IN THE CWA BUT WE OPTED TO
MENTION POSSIBLE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH AN SPS. THE MOST
ABUNDANT RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR LOOMING TO THE NORTH OVER MONTANA. A SHORTWAVE RIDING UP
AND OVER THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SPIN OFF AN H5 CLOSED LOW
OVER UTAH/IDAHO WITH MOISTURE ENCASED WITHIN THIS FEATURE. AN ASCT
H7 LOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTHWEST WY WHICH WILL HELP
DRAW IN COOL MOIST GULF AIR FROM THE EAST UNDERCUTTING THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE. SO WITH COOL AIR IN PLACE AND
RESULTANT WEAK CONVECTION...DO NOT THINK WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR. THE MOST DRAMATIC SHORTWAVE AS SEEN ON THE WV LOOP IS
WAY DOWN IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA. SINCE THAT SHORTWAVE WOULD NOT ARRIVE
HERE TODAY OR TONIGHT BASED ON ITS SPEED...WILL NOT BOTHER TRYING TO
TIME THAT FEATURE FOR NOW.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL RETREAT TO THE SOUTH OVER
SOUTHERN WY AS THE H7 LOW DRIFTS TO THE WY/CO BORDER. FRESH
CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER FAR
WESTERN WY AS WEAK IMPULSES RIDE UP AND OVER THE STATIONARY RIDGE.
TEMPS WILL WARM ON WEDNESDAY ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES.

THEN ON THURSDAY THE NEXT PROMINENT SHORTWAVE RIDING UP AND OVER THE
RIDGE WILL SPIN OFF A CLOSED LOW OVER NEVADA AND WILL TRACK TO
IDAHO. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A GOOD CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN WY AND THE BIG HORN MTNS. TEMPS WILL WARM
ANOTHER 5 DEGREES OR SO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH WEATHER SYSTEMS ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER HIGH WHICH STAYS OVER THE ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO
AREA PER THE GFS MODEL. ON THE ECMWF MODEL THE UPPER HIGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST TOWARD TEXAS/EASTERN NEW MEXICO NEXT MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THUS THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING OF
THESE SYSTEMS. THIS MAKES FORECASTING THE DAYS OF A HIGHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MORE DIFFICULT. AT THIS POINT FRIDAY AND NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK MORE ACTIVE THAN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH
MAY SEE ACTIVITY MORE ISOLATED. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION BUT MODEL TIMING IS LIKELY TO CHANGE IN THE COMING DAYS
SO EXPECT REVISIONS TO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK FORECAST.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE BUT ONLY A FEW PLACES REACHING
90 DEGREES ON CERTAIN DAYS. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER SOME DAYS MAY
SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS EAST OF THE
DIVIDE. EXPECT MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WOULD ALSO
EXPECT HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT NIGHT AND DURING THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE EXPECTED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS PATTERN
WILL HOPEFULLY HELP SOME OF THE AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN QUITE DRY
THE PAST MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/
DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND DAYTIME
HEATING WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS...ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A KMTR TO KWRL TO KBYG LINE. WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY AND COULD
KEEP THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE AS SHRA...LIMITING TS COVERAGE. THUS WILL
NOT PREVAIL TS AT ANY TERMINAL...AND ONLY HAVE VCTS AT AREA
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TERMINALS...BUT
UNCERTAINTY AND TIMING PRECLUDE PREVAILING MVFR/IFR AT THIS TIME.
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE DUE TO THE CONVECTION...PREVAILING
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EASTERLY. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY END FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN 03Z AND
09Z...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE WIND RIVER RANGE AS DRIER PRESSES IN
FROM MONTANA. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY THIS EVENING.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A MORE SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF MOISTURE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN...HELPING TO ALLEVIATE SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. ADDITIONALLY...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A CONTINUATION
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON







000
FXUS65 KCYS 291139
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
539 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL ORGANIZED
UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN NV/UT WITHIN A GENERAL
WEAKNESS IN A LARGER SCALE RIDGING PATTERN. ABUNDANT MONSOONAL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS NOW DEVELOPING
OVER SOUTHEAST WY AND THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. CONVECTION SHOULD
ONLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH TIME AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA. MOIST LLVL UPSLOPE STRENGTHENS DRAMATICALLY BY
18Z BENEATH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A 100 KT JET
STREAK OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EXCELLENT MOISTURE IS IN PLACE
WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND WIDESPREAD SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F PER RECENT OBS. BELIEVE CONVECTION SHOULD
BECOME QUITE NUMEROUS BY MID AFTN. INTRODUCED CATEGORICAL POPS
AFTER 21Z ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH THE
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT.

GFS K-INDEX VALUES OF 35 TO 40 C AND STRONG UVVS POINT TO HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL THIS AFTN AND EVE. GFS AND NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION WITH TALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES
AND DEEP SATURATION AFTER 21Z. WHILE THE RESIDENCE TIME OF
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS MAY NOT SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
RISK...STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING WITH AVERAGE 700-300 MILLIBAR
WINDS ONLY AROUND 10 KT. PLUS THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF MODELS ALL AGREE
WITH QPF VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. WPC STILL PAINTS A MDT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. WENT AHEAD AND HOISTED A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND SOME OF THE ADJACENT VALLEYS/HIGH
PLAINS. NOT TOO CONFIDENT THAT AREAS FARTHER EAST WILL SEE HIGHER
AMOUNTS AS CONVECTION MAY BE LARGELY TERRAIN DRIVEN. LEFT THOSE
AREAS OUT OF THE WATCH FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT THE DAY SHIFT MAY
WISH TO REVISIT.

CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY SUNRISE
WED AS STRONGER DYNAMICS SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST. ECMWF AND NAM ARE
SLOWER TO MOVE THINGS OUT WITH SOME HIGHER QPF CARRYING OVER INTO
THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME ON WED AFTN...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FOR A TEMPORAL EXTENTION OF THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. OTHERWISE...
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WED WILL RATHER COOL WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
AND PCPN. H7 TEMPS ONLY AROUND 5-7C ON WED SUGGESTS COOLER THAN
CONSENSUS MOS INDICATES...ONLY LOOKING AT A HIGH AROUND 65F HERE
IN CYS. WARMER AND DRIER FOR THU AS RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF
OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. PCPN CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A VERY TYPICAL EARLY AUGUST PATTERN TAKING SHAPE DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS
PERIODICALLY INFILTRATED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED POCKETS
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. IT BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT THIS TIME OF YEAR
TO FEEL CONFIDENT IN REMOVING DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE CHANCES.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO WRN WYOMING FRIDAY MORNING
REACHING WRN ZONES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE FOR AREAS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY OF THIS WAVE WEST OF
INTERSTATE 25. PROGS SBCAPES OF 200-400 J/KG SUGGEST ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE NON-SEVERE. WEAK STEERING FLOW
WILL ONLY MOVE THIS SHORTWAVE TO NORTHEAST WYOMING/WRN SOUTH DAKOTA
BY LATE SATURDAY. INSTABILITY AXIS WILL REMAIN PARKED ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT ERN PLAINS. CONVECTIVE CHANCES AGAIN HAVE
BEEN CONFINED GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 25 ON SATURDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN SLINGING ANOTHER PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY THRU THE FOUR CORNERS TOWARDS THE COWBOY STATE ON
SUNDAY. THE GFS IS QUICKEST AND STRONGEST WITH THIS ENERGY WHILE THE
ECMWF OFFERS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND WEAKER SOLUTION. IN EITHER CASE
ITS EFFECTS REALLY WONT BE FELT UNTIL LATE SUNDAY AND MORE SO ON
MONDAY AS COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH THRU THE CWFA. THIS WILL BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DEPENDING UPON THE
TIMING OF THIS FTR...IT MAY LINGER AND/OR HAVE THE MOST IMPACT ON
TUESDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE BEEN FAIRLY LIBERAL WITH CONVECTIVE CHANCES
FOR MON/TUE WITH THE EXPECTATIONS THAT THESE WILL BE REFINED AS
SOLUTIONS CONVERGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WARMEST ON SUNDAY AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO
THE 80S AT ALL LOCATIONS. COOLER TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE
COLD FROPA MON/TUE...WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 538 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH A GOOD SUPPLY OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS...
ESPECIALLY AT KRWL...KLAR AND KCYS. BEFORE THIS CONVECTION
DEVELOPS...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS
MORNING PRIMARILY AT WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE SITES. THIS SHOULD
LIFT BETWEEN 16-18Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD KICK OFF
FIRST NR KRWL AS EARLY AS LATE THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THRU THE AFTERNOON
AFFECTING KLAR AND KCYS. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY
THIS ACTIVITY. SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE UPWARDS OF 1-2 INCHES OF
RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY MAKE IT INTO THE WRN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AIRFIELDS THIS EVENING. EXPECT GENERALLY JUST A
DECREASE INTO MVFR WITH THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT COULD
SEE IFR VSBYS IN THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE...BUT LESSEN IN COVERAGE SOME TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM COMBINED WITH MONSOON MOISTURE WILL GIVE
WAY TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NEW MOISTURE WILL MITIGATE ANY
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     WYZ103-106-112-114>118.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...HAHN
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER






000
FXUS65 KCYS 291139
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
539 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL ORGANIZED
UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN NV/UT WITHIN A GENERAL
WEAKNESS IN A LARGER SCALE RIDGING PATTERN. ABUNDANT MONSOONAL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS NOW DEVELOPING
OVER SOUTHEAST WY AND THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. CONVECTION SHOULD
ONLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH TIME AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA. MOIST LLVL UPSLOPE STRENGTHENS DRAMATICALLY BY
18Z BENEATH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A 100 KT JET
STREAK OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EXCELLENT MOISTURE IS IN PLACE
WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND WIDESPREAD SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F PER RECENT OBS. BELIEVE CONVECTION SHOULD
BECOME QUITE NUMEROUS BY MID AFTN. INTRODUCED CATEGORICAL POPS
AFTER 21Z ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH THE
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT.

GFS K-INDEX VALUES OF 35 TO 40 C AND STRONG UVVS POINT TO HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL THIS AFTN AND EVE. GFS AND NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION WITH TALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES
AND DEEP SATURATION AFTER 21Z. WHILE THE RESIDENCE TIME OF
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS MAY NOT SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
RISK...STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING WITH AVERAGE 700-300 MILLIBAR
WINDS ONLY AROUND 10 KT. PLUS THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF MODELS ALL AGREE
WITH QPF VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. WPC STILL PAINTS A MDT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. WENT AHEAD AND HOISTED A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND SOME OF THE ADJACENT VALLEYS/HIGH
PLAINS. NOT TOO CONFIDENT THAT AREAS FARTHER EAST WILL SEE HIGHER
AMOUNTS AS CONVECTION MAY BE LARGELY TERRAIN DRIVEN. LEFT THOSE
AREAS OUT OF THE WATCH FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT THE DAY SHIFT MAY
WISH TO REVISIT.

CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY SUNRISE
WED AS STRONGER DYNAMICS SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST. ECMWF AND NAM ARE
SLOWER TO MOVE THINGS OUT WITH SOME HIGHER QPF CARRYING OVER INTO
THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME ON WED AFTN...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FOR A TEMPORAL EXTENTION OF THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. OTHERWISE...
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WED WILL RATHER COOL WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
AND PCPN. H7 TEMPS ONLY AROUND 5-7C ON WED SUGGESTS COOLER THAN
CONSENSUS MOS INDICATES...ONLY LOOKING AT A HIGH AROUND 65F HERE
IN CYS. WARMER AND DRIER FOR THU AS RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF
OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. PCPN CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A VERY TYPICAL EARLY AUGUST PATTERN TAKING SHAPE DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS
PERIODICALLY INFILTRATED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED POCKETS
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. IT BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT THIS TIME OF YEAR
TO FEEL CONFIDENT IN REMOVING DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE CHANCES.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO WRN WYOMING FRIDAY MORNING
REACHING WRN ZONES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE FOR AREAS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY OF THIS WAVE WEST OF
INTERSTATE 25. PROGS SBCAPES OF 200-400 J/KG SUGGEST ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE NON-SEVERE. WEAK STEERING FLOW
WILL ONLY MOVE THIS SHORTWAVE TO NORTHEAST WYOMING/WRN SOUTH DAKOTA
BY LATE SATURDAY. INSTABILITY AXIS WILL REMAIN PARKED ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT ERN PLAINS. CONVECTIVE CHANCES AGAIN HAVE
BEEN CONFINED GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 25 ON SATURDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN SLINGING ANOTHER PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY THRU THE FOUR CORNERS TOWARDS THE COWBOY STATE ON
SUNDAY. THE GFS IS QUICKEST AND STRONGEST WITH THIS ENERGY WHILE THE
ECMWF OFFERS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND WEAKER SOLUTION. IN EITHER CASE
ITS EFFECTS REALLY WONT BE FELT UNTIL LATE SUNDAY AND MORE SO ON
MONDAY AS COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH THRU THE CWFA. THIS WILL BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DEPENDING UPON THE
TIMING OF THIS FTR...IT MAY LINGER AND/OR HAVE THE MOST IMPACT ON
TUESDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE BEEN FAIRLY LIBERAL WITH CONVECTIVE CHANCES
FOR MON/TUE WITH THE EXPECTATIONS THAT THESE WILL BE REFINED AS
SOLUTIONS CONVERGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WARMEST ON SUNDAY AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO
THE 80S AT ALL LOCATIONS. COOLER TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE
COLD FROPA MON/TUE...WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 538 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH A GOOD SUPPLY OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS...
ESPECIALLY AT KRWL...KLAR AND KCYS. BEFORE THIS CONVECTION
DEVELOPS...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS
MORNING PRIMARILY AT WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE SITES. THIS SHOULD
LIFT BETWEEN 16-18Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD KICK OFF
FIRST NR KRWL AS EARLY AS LATE THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THRU THE AFTERNOON
AFFECTING KLAR AND KCYS. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY
THIS ACTIVITY. SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE UPWARDS OF 1-2 INCHES OF
RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY MAKE IT INTO THE WRN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AIRFIELDS THIS EVENING. EXPECT GENERALLY JUST A
DECREASE INTO MVFR WITH THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT COULD
SEE IFR VSBYS IN THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE...BUT LESSEN IN COVERAGE SOME TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM COMBINED WITH MONSOON MOISTURE WILL GIVE
WAY TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NEW MOISTURE WILL MITIGATE ANY
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     WYZ103-106-112-114>118.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...HAHN
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER






000
FXUS65 KCYS 291139
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
539 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL ORGANIZED
UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN NV/UT WITHIN A GENERAL
WEAKNESS IN A LARGER SCALE RIDGING PATTERN. ABUNDANT MONSOONAL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS NOW DEVELOPING
OVER SOUTHEAST WY AND THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. CONVECTION SHOULD
ONLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH TIME AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA. MOIST LLVL UPSLOPE STRENGTHENS DRAMATICALLY BY
18Z BENEATH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A 100 KT JET
STREAK OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EXCELLENT MOISTURE IS IN PLACE
WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND WIDESPREAD SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F PER RECENT OBS. BELIEVE CONVECTION SHOULD
BECOME QUITE NUMEROUS BY MID AFTN. INTRODUCED CATEGORICAL POPS
AFTER 21Z ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH THE
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT.

GFS K-INDEX VALUES OF 35 TO 40 C AND STRONG UVVS POINT TO HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL THIS AFTN AND EVE. GFS AND NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION WITH TALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES
AND DEEP SATURATION AFTER 21Z. WHILE THE RESIDENCE TIME OF
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS MAY NOT SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
RISK...STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING WITH AVERAGE 700-300 MILLIBAR
WINDS ONLY AROUND 10 KT. PLUS THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF MODELS ALL AGREE
WITH QPF VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. WPC STILL PAINTS A MDT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. WENT AHEAD AND HOISTED A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND SOME OF THE ADJACENT VALLEYS/HIGH
PLAINS. NOT TOO CONFIDENT THAT AREAS FARTHER EAST WILL SEE HIGHER
AMOUNTS AS CONVECTION MAY BE LARGELY TERRAIN DRIVEN. LEFT THOSE
AREAS OUT OF THE WATCH FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT THE DAY SHIFT MAY
WISH TO REVISIT.

CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY SUNRISE
WED AS STRONGER DYNAMICS SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST. ECMWF AND NAM ARE
SLOWER TO MOVE THINGS OUT WITH SOME HIGHER QPF CARRYING OVER INTO
THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME ON WED AFTN...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FOR A TEMPORAL EXTENTION OF THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. OTHERWISE...
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WED WILL RATHER COOL WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
AND PCPN. H7 TEMPS ONLY AROUND 5-7C ON WED SUGGESTS COOLER THAN
CONSENSUS MOS INDICATES...ONLY LOOKING AT A HIGH AROUND 65F HERE
IN CYS. WARMER AND DRIER FOR THU AS RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF
OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. PCPN CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A VERY TYPICAL EARLY AUGUST PATTERN TAKING SHAPE DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS
PERIODICALLY INFILTRATED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED POCKETS
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. IT BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT THIS TIME OF YEAR
TO FEEL CONFIDENT IN REMOVING DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE CHANCES.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO WRN WYOMING FRIDAY MORNING
REACHING WRN ZONES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE FOR AREAS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY OF THIS WAVE WEST OF
INTERSTATE 25. PROGS SBCAPES OF 200-400 J/KG SUGGEST ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE NON-SEVERE. WEAK STEERING FLOW
WILL ONLY MOVE THIS SHORTWAVE TO NORTHEAST WYOMING/WRN SOUTH DAKOTA
BY LATE SATURDAY. INSTABILITY AXIS WILL REMAIN PARKED ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT ERN PLAINS. CONVECTIVE CHANCES AGAIN HAVE
BEEN CONFINED GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 25 ON SATURDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN SLINGING ANOTHER PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY THRU THE FOUR CORNERS TOWARDS THE COWBOY STATE ON
SUNDAY. THE GFS IS QUICKEST AND STRONGEST WITH THIS ENERGY WHILE THE
ECMWF OFFERS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND WEAKER SOLUTION. IN EITHER CASE
ITS EFFECTS REALLY WONT BE FELT UNTIL LATE SUNDAY AND MORE SO ON
MONDAY AS COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH THRU THE CWFA. THIS WILL BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DEPENDING UPON THE
TIMING OF THIS FTR...IT MAY LINGER AND/OR HAVE THE MOST IMPACT ON
TUESDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE BEEN FAIRLY LIBERAL WITH CONVECTIVE CHANCES
FOR MON/TUE WITH THE EXPECTATIONS THAT THESE WILL BE REFINED AS
SOLUTIONS CONVERGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WARMEST ON SUNDAY AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO
THE 80S AT ALL LOCATIONS. COOLER TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE
COLD FROPA MON/TUE...WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 538 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH A GOOD SUPPLY OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS...
ESPECIALLY AT KRWL...KLAR AND KCYS. BEFORE THIS CONVECTION
DEVELOPS...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS
MORNING PRIMARILY AT WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE SITES. THIS SHOULD
LIFT BETWEEN 16-18Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD KICK OFF
FIRST NR KRWL AS EARLY AS LATE THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THRU THE AFTERNOON
AFFECTING KLAR AND KCYS. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY
THIS ACTIVITY. SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE UPWARDS OF 1-2 INCHES OF
RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY MAKE IT INTO THE WRN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AIRFIELDS THIS EVENING. EXPECT GENERALLY JUST A
DECREASE INTO MVFR WITH THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT COULD
SEE IFR VSBYS IN THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE...BUT LESSEN IN COVERAGE SOME TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM COMBINED WITH MONSOON MOISTURE WILL GIVE
WAY TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NEW MOISTURE WILL MITIGATE ANY
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     WYZ103-106-112-114>118.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...HAHN
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER






000
FXUS65 KCYS 291139
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
539 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL ORGANIZED
UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN NV/UT WITHIN A GENERAL
WEAKNESS IN A LARGER SCALE RIDGING PATTERN. ABUNDANT MONSOONAL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS NOW DEVELOPING
OVER SOUTHEAST WY AND THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. CONVECTION SHOULD
ONLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH TIME AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA. MOIST LLVL UPSLOPE STRENGTHENS DRAMATICALLY BY
18Z BENEATH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A 100 KT JET
STREAK OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EXCELLENT MOISTURE IS IN PLACE
WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND WIDESPREAD SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F PER RECENT OBS. BELIEVE CONVECTION SHOULD
BECOME QUITE NUMEROUS BY MID AFTN. INTRODUCED CATEGORICAL POPS
AFTER 21Z ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH THE
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT.

GFS K-INDEX VALUES OF 35 TO 40 C AND STRONG UVVS POINT TO HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL THIS AFTN AND EVE. GFS AND NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION WITH TALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES
AND DEEP SATURATION AFTER 21Z. WHILE THE RESIDENCE TIME OF
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS MAY NOT SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
RISK...STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING WITH AVERAGE 700-300 MILLIBAR
WINDS ONLY AROUND 10 KT. PLUS THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF MODELS ALL AGREE
WITH QPF VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. WPC STILL PAINTS A MDT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. WENT AHEAD AND HOISTED A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND SOME OF THE ADJACENT VALLEYS/HIGH
PLAINS. NOT TOO CONFIDENT THAT AREAS FARTHER EAST WILL SEE HIGHER
AMOUNTS AS CONVECTION MAY BE LARGELY TERRAIN DRIVEN. LEFT THOSE
AREAS OUT OF THE WATCH FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT THE DAY SHIFT MAY
WISH TO REVISIT.

CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY SUNRISE
WED AS STRONGER DYNAMICS SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST. ECMWF AND NAM ARE
SLOWER TO MOVE THINGS OUT WITH SOME HIGHER QPF CARRYING OVER INTO
THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME ON WED AFTN...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FOR A TEMPORAL EXTENTION OF THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. OTHERWISE...
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WED WILL RATHER COOL WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
AND PCPN. H7 TEMPS ONLY AROUND 5-7C ON WED SUGGESTS COOLER THAN
CONSENSUS MOS INDICATES...ONLY LOOKING AT A HIGH AROUND 65F HERE
IN CYS. WARMER AND DRIER FOR THU AS RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF
OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. PCPN CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A VERY TYPICAL EARLY AUGUST PATTERN TAKING SHAPE DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS
PERIODICALLY INFILTRATED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED POCKETS
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. IT BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT THIS TIME OF YEAR
TO FEEL CONFIDENT IN REMOVING DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE CHANCES.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO WRN WYOMING FRIDAY MORNING
REACHING WRN ZONES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE FOR AREAS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY OF THIS WAVE WEST OF
INTERSTATE 25. PROGS SBCAPES OF 200-400 J/KG SUGGEST ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE NON-SEVERE. WEAK STEERING FLOW
WILL ONLY MOVE THIS SHORTWAVE TO NORTHEAST WYOMING/WRN SOUTH DAKOTA
BY LATE SATURDAY. INSTABILITY AXIS WILL REMAIN PARKED ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT ERN PLAINS. CONVECTIVE CHANCES AGAIN HAVE
BEEN CONFINED GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 25 ON SATURDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN SLINGING ANOTHER PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY THRU THE FOUR CORNERS TOWARDS THE COWBOY STATE ON
SUNDAY. THE GFS IS QUICKEST AND STRONGEST WITH THIS ENERGY WHILE THE
ECMWF OFFERS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND WEAKER SOLUTION. IN EITHER CASE
ITS EFFECTS REALLY WONT BE FELT UNTIL LATE SUNDAY AND MORE SO ON
MONDAY AS COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH THRU THE CWFA. THIS WILL BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DEPENDING UPON THE
TIMING OF THIS FTR...IT MAY LINGER AND/OR HAVE THE MOST IMPACT ON
TUESDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE BEEN FAIRLY LIBERAL WITH CONVECTIVE CHANCES
FOR MON/TUE WITH THE EXPECTATIONS THAT THESE WILL BE REFINED AS
SOLUTIONS CONVERGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WARMEST ON SUNDAY AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO
THE 80S AT ALL LOCATIONS. COOLER TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE
COLD FROPA MON/TUE...WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 538 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH A GOOD SUPPLY OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS...
ESPECIALLY AT KRWL...KLAR AND KCYS. BEFORE THIS CONVECTION
DEVELOPS...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS
MORNING PRIMARILY AT WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE SITES. THIS SHOULD
LIFT BETWEEN 16-18Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD KICK OFF
FIRST NR KRWL AS EARLY AS LATE THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THRU THE AFTERNOON
AFFECTING KLAR AND KCYS. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY
THIS ACTIVITY. SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE UPWARDS OF 1-2 INCHES OF
RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY MAKE IT INTO THE WRN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AIRFIELDS THIS EVENING. EXPECT GENERALLY JUST A
DECREASE INTO MVFR WITH THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT COULD
SEE IFR VSBYS IN THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE...BUT LESSEN IN COVERAGE SOME TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM COMBINED WITH MONSOON MOISTURE WILL GIVE
WAY TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NEW MOISTURE WILL MITIGATE ANY
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     WYZ103-106-112-114>118.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...HAHN
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER






000
FXUS63 KUNR 291113
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
513 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ALONG
A NW-SE ORIENTED THETA-E RIDGE LOCATED FROM NORTHEASTERN WYOMING
INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS A WEAK IMPULSE ROUNDS THE RIDGE.
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS SYNPOTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SPREADS OVER THE
REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE AND HAVE
LOWERED PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING BELOW GUIDANCE DUE TO THE
EXPECTATION OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THAT REGION INTO THE
EARLY AFTN. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY AS
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND. COOL NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES. THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS. WEAK FLOW AND LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ACTIVITY TO ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS.
HOWEVER BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE YIELDS TO AN ONSLAUGHT OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND WEAK SYSTEMS ARE ALLOWED INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  HENCE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS
BEEN INCREASED FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 510 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SCATTERED -TSRA OVER NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTHWEST SD THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN PRECIPITATION.
ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...CARPENTER






000
FXUS63 KUNR 291113
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
513 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ALONG
A NW-SE ORIENTED THETA-E RIDGE LOCATED FROM NORTHEASTERN WYOMING
INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS A WEAK IMPULSE ROUNDS THE RIDGE.
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS SYNPOTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SPREADS OVER THE
REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE AND HAVE
LOWERED PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING BELOW GUIDANCE DUE TO THE
EXPECTATION OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THAT REGION INTO THE
EARLY AFTN. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY AS
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND. COOL NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES. THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS. WEAK FLOW AND LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ACTIVITY TO ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS.
HOWEVER BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE YIELDS TO AN ONSLAUGHT OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND WEAK SYSTEMS ARE ALLOWED INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  HENCE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS
BEEN INCREASED FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 510 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SCATTERED -TSRA OVER NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTHWEST SD THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN PRECIPITATION.
ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...CARPENTER







000
FXUS65 KRIW 291006
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
406 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
TODAY IS LIKELY GOING TO TURN OUT TO BE A COOL WET DAY...NOT BECAUSE
OF COOL AIR ADVECTION...BUT FROM AN ABUNDANCE OF
CLOUDINESS...RAINFALL AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL
BE 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY WERE ON MONDAY IN MANY AREAS. A DEEP
LAYER OF MONSOON MOISTURE WITH MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS WILL PREVENT
SOLAR INSULATION FOR STRONG CONVECTION BUT WILL SUPPLY WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. SINCE CONVECTION WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...DECIDED AGAINST
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ANY LOCATION IN THE CWA BUT WE OPTED TO
MENTION POSSIBLE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH AN SPS. THE MOST
ABUNDANT RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR LOOMING TO THE NORTH OVER MONTANA. A SHORTWAVE RIDING UP
AND OVER THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SPIN OFF AN H5 CLOSED LOW
OVER UTAH/IDAHO WITH MOISTURE ENCASED WITHIN THIS FEATURE. AN ASCT
H7 LOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTHWEST WY WHICH WILL HELP
DRAW IN COOL MOIST GULF AIR FROM THE EAST UNDERCUTTING THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE. SO WITH COOL AIR IN PLACE AND
RESULTANT WEAK CONVECTION...DO NOT THINK WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR. THE MOST DRAMATIC SHORTWAVE AS SEEN ON THE WV LOOP IS
WAY DOWN IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA. SINCE THAT SHORTWAVE WOULD NOT ARRIVE
HERE TODAY OR TONIGHT BASED ON ITS SPEED...WILL NOT BOTHER TRYING TO
TIME THAT FEATURE FOR NOW.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL RETREAT TO THE SOUTH OVER
SOUTHERN WY AS THE H7 LOW DRIFTS TO THE WY/CO BORDER. FRESH
CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER FAR
WESTERN WY AS WEAK IMPULSES RIDE UP AND OVER THE STATIONARY RIDGE.
TEMPS WILL WARM ON WEDNESDAY ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES.

THEN ON THURSDAY THE NEXT PROMINENT SHORTWAVE RIDING UP AND OVER THE
RIDGE WILL SPIN OFF A CLOSED LOW OVER NEVADA AND WILL TRACK TO
IDAHO. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A GOOD CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN WY AND THE BIG HORN MTNS. TEMPS WILL WARM
ANOTHER 5 DEGREES OR SO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH WEATHER SYSTEMS ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER HIGH WHICH STAYS OVER THE ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO
AREA PER THE GFS MODEL. ON THE ECMWF MODEL THE UPPER HIGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST TOWARD TEXAS/EASTERN NEW MEXICO NEXT MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THUS THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING OF
THESE SYSTEMS. THIS MAKES FORECASTING THE DAYS OF A HIGHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MORE DIFFICULT. AT THIS POINT FRIDAY AND NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK MORE ACTIVE THAN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH
MAY SEE ACTIVITY MORE ISOLATED. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION BUT MODEL TIMING IS LIKELY TO CHANGE IN THE COMING DAYS
SO EXPECT REVISIONS TO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK FORECAST.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE BUT ONLY A FEW PLACES REACHING
90 DEGREES ON CERTAIN DAYS. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER SOME DAYS MAY
SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS EAST OF THE
DIVIDE. EXPECT MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WOULD ALSO
EXPECT HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT NIGHT AND DURING THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE EXPECTED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS PATTERN
WILL HOPEFULLY HELP SOME OF THE AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN QUITE DRY
THE PAST MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ONGOING THIS MORNING WITH AN
EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 080-140 KFT AGL. DEEP
MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND DAYTIME HEATING
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING BETWEEN MID MORNING AND NOON. THE MOST WIDESPREAD
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS. WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY AND COULD
KEEP THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE AS SHRA...LIMITING TS COVERAGE. THUS WILL
NOT PREVAIL TS AT ANY TERMINAL...AND ONLY HAVE VCTS AT AREA
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TERMINALS...BUT
UNCERTAINTY AND TIMING PRECLUDE PREVAILING MVFR/IFR AT ANY TERMINAL
AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE DUE TO THE
CONVECTION...PREVAILING WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EASTERLY. MUCH OF
THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY END FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH
BETWEEN 00Z AND 09Z. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED MUCH OF THE TIME
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A MORE SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF MOISTURE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN...HELPING TO ALLEVIATE SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. ADDITIONALLY...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A CONTINUATION
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON





000
FXUS65 KRIW 291006
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
406 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
TODAY IS LIKELY GOING TO TURN OUT TO BE A COOL WET DAY...NOT BECAUSE
OF COOL AIR ADVECTION...BUT FROM AN ABUNDANCE OF
CLOUDINESS...RAINFALL AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL
BE 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY WERE ON MONDAY IN MANY AREAS. A DEEP
LAYER OF MONSOON MOISTURE WITH MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS WILL PREVENT
SOLAR INSULATION FOR STRONG CONVECTION BUT WILL SUPPLY WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. SINCE CONVECTION WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...DECIDED AGAINST
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ANY LOCATION IN THE CWA BUT WE OPTED TO
MENTION POSSIBLE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH AN SPS. THE MOST
ABUNDANT RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR LOOMING TO THE NORTH OVER MONTANA. A SHORTWAVE RIDING UP
AND OVER THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SPIN OFF AN H5 CLOSED LOW
OVER UTAH/IDAHO WITH MOISTURE ENCASED WITHIN THIS FEATURE. AN ASCT
H7 LOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTHWEST WY WHICH WILL HELP
DRAW IN COOL MOIST GULF AIR FROM THE EAST UNDERCUTTING THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE. SO WITH COOL AIR IN PLACE AND
RESULTANT WEAK CONVECTION...DO NOT THINK WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR. THE MOST DRAMATIC SHORTWAVE AS SEEN ON THE WV LOOP IS
WAY DOWN IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA. SINCE THAT SHORTWAVE WOULD NOT ARRIVE
HERE TODAY OR TONIGHT BASED ON ITS SPEED...WILL NOT BOTHER TRYING TO
TIME THAT FEATURE FOR NOW.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL RETREAT TO THE SOUTH OVER
SOUTHERN WY AS THE H7 LOW DRIFTS TO THE WY/CO BORDER. FRESH
CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER FAR
WESTERN WY AS WEAK IMPULSES RIDE UP AND OVER THE STATIONARY RIDGE.
TEMPS WILL WARM ON WEDNESDAY ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES.

THEN ON THURSDAY THE NEXT PROMINENT SHORTWAVE RIDING UP AND OVER THE
RIDGE WILL SPIN OFF A CLOSED LOW OVER NEVADA AND WILL TRACK TO
IDAHO. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A GOOD CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN WY AND THE BIG HORN MTNS. TEMPS WILL WARM
ANOTHER 5 DEGREES OR SO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH WEATHER SYSTEMS ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER HIGH WHICH STAYS OVER THE ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO
AREA PER THE GFS MODEL. ON THE ECMWF MODEL THE UPPER HIGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST TOWARD TEXAS/EASTERN NEW MEXICO NEXT MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THUS THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING OF
THESE SYSTEMS. THIS MAKES FORECASTING THE DAYS OF A HIGHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MORE DIFFICULT. AT THIS POINT FRIDAY AND NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK MORE ACTIVE THAN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH
MAY SEE ACTIVITY MORE ISOLATED. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION BUT MODEL TIMING IS LIKELY TO CHANGE IN THE COMING DAYS
SO EXPECT REVISIONS TO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK FORECAST.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE BUT ONLY A FEW PLACES REACHING
90 DEGREES ON CERTAIN DAYS. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER SOME DAYS MAY
SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS EAST OF THE
DIVIDE. EXPECT MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WOULD ALSO
EXPECT HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT NIGHT AND DURING THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE EXPECTED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS PATTERN
WILL HOPEFULLY HELP SOME OF THE AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN QUITE DRY
THE PAST MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ONGOING THIS MORNING WITH AN
EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 080-140 KFT AGL. DEEP
MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND DAYTIME HEATING
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING BETWEEN MID MORNING AND NOON. THE MOST WIDESPREAD
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS. WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY AND COULD
KEEP THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE AS SHRA...LIMITING TS COVERAGE. THUS WILL
NOT PREVAIL TS AT ANY TERMINAL...AND ONLY HAVE VCTS AT AREA
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TERMINALS...BUT
UNCERTAINTY AND TIMING PRECLUDE PREVAILING MVFR/IFR AT ANY TERMINAL
AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE DUE TO THE
CONVECTION...PREVAILING WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EASTERLY. MUCH OF
THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY END FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH
BETWEEN 00Z AND 09Z. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED MUCH OF THE TIME
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A MORE SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF MOISTURE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN...HELPING TO ALLEVIATE SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. ADDITIONALLY...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A CONTINUATION
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON





000
FXUS65 KRIW 291006
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
406 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
TODAY IS LIKELY GOING TO TURN OUT TO BE A COOL WET DAY...NOT BECAUSE
OF COOL AIR ADVECTION...BUT FROM AN ABUNDANCE OF
CLOUDINESS...RAINFALL AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL
BE 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY WERE ON MONDAY IN MANY AREAS. A DEEP
LAYER OF MONSOON MOISTURE WITH MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS WILL PREVENT
SOLAR INSULATION FOR STRONG CONVECTION BUT WILL SUPPLY WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. SINCE CONVECTION WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...DECIDED AGAINST
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ANY LOCATION IN THE CWA BUT WE OPTED TO
MENTION POSSIBLE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH AN SPS. THE MOST
ABUNDANT RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR LOOMING TO THE NORTH OVER MONTANA. A SHORTWAVE RIDING UP
AND OVER THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SPIN OFF AN H5 CLOSED LOW
OVER UTAH/IDAHO WITH MOISTURE ENCASED WITHIN THIS FEATURE. AN ASCT
H7 LOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTHWEST WY WHICH WILL HELP
DRAW IN COOL MOIST GULF AIR FROM THE EAST UNDERCUTTING THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE. SO WITH COOL AIR IN PLACE AND
RESULTANT WEAK CONVECTION...DO NOT THINK WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR. THE MOST DRAMATIC SHORTWAVE AS SEEN ON THE WV LOOP IS
WAY DOWN IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA. SINCE THAT SHORTWAVE WOULD NOT ARRIVE
HERE TODAY OR TONIGHT BASED ON ITS SPEED...WILL NOT BOTHER TRYING TO
TIME THAT FEATURE FOR NOW.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL RETREAT TO THE SOUTH OVER
SOUTHERN WY AS THE H7 LOW DRIFTS TO THE WY/CO BORDER. FRESH
CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER FAR
WESTERN WY AS WEAK IMPULSES RIDE UP AND OVER THE STATIONARY RIDGE.
TEMPS WILL WARM ON WEDNESDAY ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES.

THEN ON THURSDAY THE NEXT PROMINENT SHORTWAVE RIDING UP AND OVER THE
RIDGE WILL SPIN OFF A CLOSED LOW OVER NEVADA AND WILL TRACK TO
IDAHO. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A GOOD CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN WY AND THE BIG HORN MTNS. TEMPS WILL WARM
ANOTHER 5 DEGREES OR SO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH WEATHER SYSTEMS ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER HIGH WHICH STAYS OVER THE ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO
AREA PER THE GFS MODEL. ON THE ECMWF MODEL THE UPPER HIGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST TOWARD TEXAS/EASTERN NEW MEXICO NEXT MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THUS THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING OF
THESE SYSTEMS. THIS MAKES FORECASTING THE DAYS OF A HIGHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MORE DIFFICULT. AT THIS POINT FRIDAY AND NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK MORE ACTIVE THAN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH
MAY SEE ACTIVITY MORE ISOLATED. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION BUT MODEL TIMING IS LIKELY TO CHANGE IN THE COMING DAYS
SO EXPECT REVISIONS TO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK FORECAST.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE BUT ONLY A FEW PLACES REACHING
90 DEGREES ON CERTAIN DAYS. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER SOME DAYS MAY
SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS EAST OF THE
DIVIDE. EXPECT MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WOULD ALSO
EXPECT HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT NIGHT AND DURING THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE EXPECTED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS PATTERN
WILL HOPEFULLY HELP SOME OF THE AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN QUITE DRY
THE PAST MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ONGOING THIS MORNING WITH AN
EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 080-140 KFT AGL. DEEP
MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND DAYTIME HEATING
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING BETWEEN MID MORNING AND NOON. THE MOST WIDESPREAD
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS. WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY AND COULD
KEEP THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE AS SHRA...LIMITING TS COVERAGE. THUS WILL
NOT PREVAIL TS AT ANY TERMINAL...AND ONLY HAVE VCTS AT AREA
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TERMINALS...BUT
UNCERTAINTY AND TIMING PRECLUDE PREVAILING MVFR/IFR AT ANY TERMINAL
AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE DUE TO THE
CONVECTION...PREVAILING WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EASTERLY. MUCH OF
THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY END FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH
BETWEEN 00Z AND 09Z. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED MUCH OF THE TIME
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A MORE SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF MOISTURE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN...HELPING TO ALLEVIATE SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. ADDITIONALLY...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A CONTINUATION
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON





000
FXUS65 KRIW 291006
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
406 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
TODAY IS LIKELY GOING TO TURN OUT TO BE A COOL WET DAY...NOT BECAUSE
OF COOL AIR ADVECTION...BUT FROM AN ABUNDANCE OF
CLOUDINESS...RAINFALL AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL
BE 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY WERE ON MONDAY IN MANY AREAS. A DEEP
LAYER OF MONSOON MOISTURE WITH MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS WILL PREVENT
SOLAR INSULATION FOR STRONG CONVECTION BUT WILL SUPPLY WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. SINCE CONVECTION WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...DECIDED AGAINST
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ANY LOCATION IN THE CWA BUT WE OPTED TO
MENTION POSSIBLE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH AN SPS. THE MOST
ABUNDANT RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR LOOMING TO THE NORTH OVER MONTANA. A SHORTWAVE RIDING UP
AND OVER THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SPIN OFF AN H5 CLOSED LOW
OVER UTAH/IDAHO WITH MOISTURE ENCASED WITHIN THIS FEATURE. AN ASCT
H7 LOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTHWEST WY WHICH WILL HELP
DRAW IN COOL MOIST GULF AIR FROM THE EAST UNDERCUTTING THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE. SO WITH COOL AIR IN PLACE AND
RESULTANT WEAK CONVECTION...DO NOT THINK WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR. THE MOST DRAMATIC SHORTWAVE AS SEEN ON THE WV LOOP IS
WAY DOWN IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA. SINCE THAT SHORTWAVE WOULD NOT ARRIVE
HERE TODAY OR TONIGHT BASED ON ITS SPEED...WILL NOT BOTHER TRYING TO
TIME THAT FEATURE FOR NOW.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL RETREAT TO THE SOUTH OVER
SOUTHERN WY AS THE H7 LOW DRIFTS TO THE WY/CO BORDER. FRESH
CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER FAR
WESTERN WY AS WEAK IMPULSES RIDE UP AND OVER THE STATIONARY RIDGE.
TEMPS WILL WARM ON WEDNESDAY ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES.

THEN ON THURSDAY THE NEXT PROMINENT SHORTWAVE RIDING UP AND OVER THE
RIDGE WILL SPIN OFF A CLOSED LOW OVER NEVADA AND WILL TRACK TO
IDAHO. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A GOOD CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN WY AND THE BIG HORN MTNS. TEMPS WILL WARM
ANOTHER 5 DEGREES OR SO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH WEATHER SYSTEMS ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER HIGH WHICH STAYS OVER THE ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO
AREA PER THE GFS MODEL. ON THE ECMWF MODEL THE UPPER HIGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST TOWARD TEXAS/EASTERN NEW MEXICO NEXT MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THUS THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING OF
THESE SYSTEMS. THIS MAKES FORECASTING THE DAYS OF A HIGHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MORE DIFFICULT. AT THIS POINT FRIDAY AND NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK MORE ACTIVE THAN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH
MAY SEE ACTIVITY MORE ISOLATED. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION BUT MODEL TIMING IS LIKELY TO CHANGE IN THE COMING DAYS
SO EXPECT REVISIONS TO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK FORECAST.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE BUT ONLY A FEW PLACES REACHING
90 DEGREES ON CERTAIN DAYS. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER SOME DAYS MAY
SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS EAST OF THE
DIVIDE. EXPECT MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WOULD ALSO
EXPECT HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT NIGHT AND DURING THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE EXPECTED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS PATTERN
WILL HOPEFULLY HELP SOME OF THE AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN QUITE DRY
THE PAST MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ONGOING THIS MORNING WITH AN
EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 080-140 KFT AGL. DEEP
MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND DAYTIME HEATING
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING BETWEEN MID MORNING AND NOON. THE MOST WIDESPREAD
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS. WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY AND COULD
KEEP THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE AS SHRA...LIMITING TS COVERAGE. THUS WILL
NOT PREVAIL TS AT ANY TERMINAL...AND ONLY HAVE VCTS AT AREA
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TERMINALS...BUT
UNCERTAINTY AND TIMING PRECLUDE PREVAILING MVFR/IFR AT ANY TERMINAL
AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE DUE TO THE
CONVECTION...PREVAILING WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EASTERLY. MUCH OF
THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY END FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH
BETWEEN 00Z AND 09Z. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED MUCH OF THE TIME
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A MORE SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF MOISTURE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN...HELPING TO ALLEVIATE SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. ADDITIONALLY...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A CONTINUATION
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON





000
FXUS65 KCYS 291001
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
401 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL ORGANIZED
UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN NV/UT WITHIN A GENERAL
WEAKNESS IN A LARGER SCALE RIDGING PATTERN. ABUNDANT MONSOONAL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS NOW DEVELOPING
OVER SOUTHEAST WY AND THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. CONVECTION SHOULD
ONLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH TIME AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA. MOIST LLVL UPSLOPE STRENGTHENS DRAMATICALLY BY
18Z BENEATH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A 100 KT JET
STREAK OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EXCELLENT MOISTURE IS IN PLACE
WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND WIDESPREAD SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F PER RECENT OBS. BELIEVE CONVECTION SHOULD
BECOME QUITE NUMEROUS BY MID AFTN. INTRODUCED CATEGORICAL POPS
AFTER 21Z ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH THE
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT.

GFS K-INDEX VALUES OF 35 TO 40 C AND STRONG UVVS POINT TO HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL THIS AFTN AND EVE. GFS AND NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION WITH TALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES
AND DEEP SATURATION AFTER 21Z. WHILE THE RESIDENCE TIME OF
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS MAY NOT SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
RISK...STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING WITH AVERAGE 700-300 MILLIBAR
WINDS ONLY AROUND 10 KT. PLUS THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF MODELS ALL AGREE
WITH QPF VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. WPC STILL PAINTS A MDT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. WENT AHEAD AND HOISTED A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND SOME OF THE ADJACENT VALLEYS/HIGH
PLAINS. NOT TOO CONFIDENT THAT AREAS FARTHER EAST WILL SEE HIGHER
AMOUNTS AS CONVECTION MAY BE LARGELY TERRAIN DRIVEN. LEFT THOSE
AREAS OUT OF THE WATCH FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT THE DAY SHIFT MAY
WISH TO REVISIT.

CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY SUNRISE
WED AS STRONGER DYNAMICS SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST. ECMWF AND NAM ARE
SLOWER TO MOVE THINGS OUT WITH SOME HIGHER QPF CARRYING OVER INTO
THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME ON WED AFTN...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FOR A TEMPORAL EXTENTION OF THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. OTHERWISE...
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WED WILL RATHER COOL WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
AND PCPN. H7 TEMPS ONLY AROUND 5-7C ON WED SUGGESTS COOLER THAN
CONSENSUS MOS INDICATES...ONLY LOOKING AT A HIGH AROUND 65F HERE
IN CYS. WARMER AND DRIER FOR THU AS RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF
OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. PCPN CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A VERY TYPICAL EARLY AUGUST PATTERN TAKING SHAPE DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS
PERIODICALLY INFILTRATED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED POCKETS
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. IT BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT THIS TIME OF YEAR
TO FEEL CONFIDENT IN REMOVING DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE CHANCES.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO WRN WYOMING FRIDAY MORNING
REACHING WRN ZONES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE FOR AREAS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY OF THIS WAVE WEST OF
INTERSTATE 25. PROGS SBCAPES OF 200-400 J/KG SUGGEST ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE NON-SEVERE. WEAK STEERING FLOW
WILL ONLY MOVE THIS SHORTWAVE TO NORTHEAST WYOMING/WRN SOUTH DAKOTA
BY LATE SATURDAY. INSTABILITY AXIS WILL REMAIN PARKED ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT ERN PLAINS. CONVECTIVE CHANCES AGAIN HAVE
BEEN CONFINED GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 25 ON SATURDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN SLINGING ANOTHER PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY THRU THE FOUR CORNERS TOWARDS THE COWBOY STATE ON
SUNDAY. THE GFS IS QUICKEST AND STRONGEST WITH THIS ENERGY WHILE THE
ECMWF OFFERS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND WEAKER SOLUTION. IN EITHER CASE
ITS EFFECTS REALLY WONT BE FELT UNTIL LATE SUNDAY AND MORE SO ON
MONDAY AS COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH THRU THE CWFA. THIS WILL BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DEPENDING UPON THE
TIMING OF THIS FTR...IT MAY LINGER AND/OR HAVE THE MOST IMPACT ON
TUESDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE BEEN FAIRLY LIBERAL WITH CONVECTIVE CHANCES
FOR MON/TUE WITH THE EXPECTATIONS THAT THESE WILL BE REFINED AS
SOLUTIONS CONVERGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WARMEST ON SUNDAY AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO
THE 80S AT ALL LOCATIONS. COOLER TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE
COLD FROPA MON/TUE...WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NEBRASKA AERODROMES...THROUGH 15Z ISOLATED SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...SOUTH OF A SCOTTSBLUFF TO BRIDGEPORT LINE
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS AND
TURBULENCE WITH LOCALIZED MVFR...OTHERWISE VFR. AREAS OF FOG LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING.

AFTER 15Z...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON...MOST NUMEROUS SOUTH OF A SCOTTSBLUFF TO ALLIANCE
LINE...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE.

WYOMING AERODROMES...THROUGH 15Z ISOLATED SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS AND TURBULENCE WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR...OTHERWISE VFR.

AFTER 15Z...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON...MOST NUMEROUS EAST OF A LARAMIE TO WHEATLAND LINE...
WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND LOCALIZED
TURBULENCE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM COMBINED WITH MONSOON MOISTURE WILL GIVE
WAY TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NEW MOISTURE WILL MITIGATE ANY
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     WYZ103-106-112-114>118.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER




000
FXUS65 KCYS 291001
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
401 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL ORGANIZED
UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN NV/UT WITHIN A GENERAL
WEAKNESS IN A LARGER SCALE RIDGING PATTERN. ABUNDANT MONSOONAL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS NOW DEVELOPING
OVER SOUTHEAST WY AND THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. CONVECTION SHOULD
ONLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH TIME AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA. MOIST LLVL UPSLOPE STRENGTHENS DRAMATICALLY BY
18Z BENEATH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A 100 KT JET
STREAK OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EXCELLENT MOISTURE IS IN PLACE
WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND WIDESPREAD SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F PER RECENT OBS. BELIEVE CONVECTION SHOULD
BECOME QUITE NUMEROUS BY MID AFTN. INTRODUCED CATEGORICAL POPS
AFTER 21Z ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH THE
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT.

GFS K-INDEX VALUES OF 35 TO 40 C AND STRONG UVVS POINT TO HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL THIS AFTN AND EVE. GFS AND NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION WITH TALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES
AND DEEP SATURATION AFTER 21Z. WHILE THE RESIDENCE TIME OF
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS MAY NOT SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
RISK...STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING WITH AVERAGE 700-300 MILLIBAR
WINDS ONLY AROUND 10 KT. PLUS THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF MODELS ALL AGREE
WITH QPF VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. WPC STILL PAINTS A MDT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. WENT AHEAD AND HOISTED A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND SOME OF THE ADJACENT VALLEYS/HIGH
PLAINS. NOT TOO CONFIDENT THAT AREAS FARTHER EAST WILL SEE HIGHER
AMOUNTS AS CONVECTION MAY BE LARGELY TERRAIN DRIVEN. LEFT THOSE
AREAS OUT OF THE WATCH FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT THE DAY SHIFT MAY
WISH TO REVISIT.

CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY SUNRISE
WED AS STRONGER DYNAMICS SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST. ECMWF AND NAM ARE
SLOWER TO MOVE THINGS OUT WITH SOME HIGHER QPF CARRYING OVER INTO
THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME ON WED AFTN...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FOR A TEMPORAL EXTENTION OF THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. OTHERWISE...
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WED WILL RATHER COOL WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
AND PCPN. H7 TEMPS ONLY AROUND 5-7C ON WED SUGGESTS COOLER THAN
CONSENSUS MOS INDICATES...ONLY LOOKING AT A HIGH AROUND 65F HERE
IN CYS. WARMER AND DRIER FOR THU AS RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF
OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. PCPN CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A VERY TYPICAL EARLY AUGUST PATTERN TAKING SHAPE DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS
PERIODICALLY INFILTRATED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED POCKETS
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. IT BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT THIS TIME OF YEAR
TO FEEL CONFIDENT IN REMOVING DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE CHANCES.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO WRN WYOMING FRIDAY MORNING
REACHING WRN ZONES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE FOR AREAS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY OF THIS WAVE WEST OF
INTERSTATE 25. PROGS SBCAPES OF 200-400 J/KG SUGGEST ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE NON-SEVERE. WEAK STEERING FLOW
WILL ONLY MOVE THIS SHORTWAVE TO NORTHEAST WYOMING/WRN SOUTH DAKOTA
BY LATE SATURDAY. INSTABILITY AXIS WILL REMAIN PARKED ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT ERN PLAINS. CONVECTIVE CHANCES AGAIN HAVE
BEEN CONFINED GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 25 ON SATURDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN SLINGING ANOTHER PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY THRU THE FOUR CORNERS TOWARDS THE COWBOY STATE ON
SUNDAY. THE GFS IS QUICKEST AND STRONGEST WITH THIS ENERGY WHILE THE
ECMWF OFFERS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND WEAKER SOLUTION. IN EITHER CASE
ITS EFFECTS REALLY WONT BE FELT UNTIL LATE SUNDAY AND MORE SO ON
MONDAY AS COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH THRU THE CWFA. THIS WILL BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DEPENDING UPON THE
TIMING OF THIS FTR...IT MAY LINGER AND/OR HAVE THE MOST IMPACT ON
TUESDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE BEEN FAIRLY LIBERAL WITH CONVECTIVE CHANCES
FOR MON/TUE WITH THE EXPECTATIONS THAT THESE WILL BE REFINED AS
SOLUTIONS CONVERGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WARMEST ON SUNDAY AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO
THE 80S AT ALL LOCATIONS. COOLER TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE
COLD FROPA MON/TUE...WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NEBRASKA AERODROMES...THROUGH 15Z ISOLATED SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...SOUTH OF A SCOTTSBLUFF TO BRIDGEPORT LINE
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS AND
TURBULENCE WITH LOCALIZED MVFR...OTHERWISE VFR. AREAS OF FOG LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING.

AFTER 15Z...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON...MOST NUMEROUS SOUTH OF A SCOTTSBLUFF TO ALLIANCE
LINE...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE.

WYOMING AERODROMES...THROUGH 15Z ISOLATED SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS AND TURBULENCE WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR...OTHERWISE VFR.

AFTER 15Z...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON...MOST NUMEROUS EAST OF A LARAMIE TO WHEATLAND LINE...
WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND LOCALIZED
TURBULENCE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM COMBINED WITH MONSOON MOISTURE WILL GIVE
WAY TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NEW MOISTURE WILL MITIGATE ANY
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     WYZ103-106-112-114>118.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER





000
FXUS63 KUNR 290843
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
243 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ALONG
A NW-SE ORIENTED THETA-E RIDGE LOCATED FROM NORTHEASTERN WYOMING
INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS A WEAK IMPULSE ROUNDS THE RIDGE.
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS SYNPOTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SPREADS OVER THE
REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE AND HAVE
LOWERED PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING BELOW GUIDANCE DUE TO THE
EXPECTATION OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THAT REGION INTO THE
EARLY AFTN. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY AS
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND. COOL NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES. THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS. WEAK FLOW AND LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ACTIVITY TO ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS.
HOWEVER BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE YIELDS TO AN ONSLAUGHT OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND WEAK SYSTEMS ARE ALLOWED INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  HENCE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS
BEEN INCREASED FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
-TSRA MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHEAST WY AND FAR SOUTHWEST SD THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...CARPENTER






000
FXUS63 KUNR 290843
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
243 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ALONG
A NW-SE ORIENTED THETA-E RIDGE LOCATED FROM NORTHEASTERN WYOMING
INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS A WEAK IMPULSE ROUNDS THE RIDGE.
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS SYNPOTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SPREADS OVER THE
REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE AND HAVE
LOWERED PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING BELOW GUIDANCE DUE TO THE
EXPECTATION OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THAT REGION INTO THE
EARLY AFTN. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY AS
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND. COOL NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES. THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS. WEAK FLOW AND LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ACTIVITY TO ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS.
HOWEVER BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE YIELDS TO AN ONSLAUGHT OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND WEAK SYSTEMS ARE ALLOWED INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  HENCE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS
BEEN INCREASED FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
-TSRA MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHEAST WY AND FAR SOUTHWEST SD THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...CARPENTER







000
FXUS65 KCYS 290542
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1142 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

GRIDDED FORECASTS MODIFIED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT TO INCLUDE
AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW AND NAM AND GFS INDICATING SOME WEAK MESOSCALE LIFT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH WEAK STEERING WINDS AND FORECAST PRECIPITABLE
WATER...A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. BOUNDARY
LAYER PROGS SUGGEST AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF INTERSTATE 25 AND SOUTH OF A SCOTTSBLUFF TO ALLIANCE LINE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

IN OUR GRIDDED FORECASTS...WE HAVE UPDATED THE AREAL COVERAGE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING BASED ON OUR CHEYENNE AND DENVER
WSR-88D REFLECTIVITY LOOPS SHOWING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN LARAMIE AND WESTERN KIMBALL COUNTIES
FROM BURNS TO PINE BLUFFS TO BUSHNELL AND KIMBALL. ALSO ADJUSTED
QPF GRIDS TO MATCH EXPECTED RAINFALL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 547 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

CHEYENNE AND DENVER WSR-88D REFLECTIVITIES INDICATING
ISOLATED SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS FROM CHEYENNE TO SIDNEY...
WITH MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF INTERSTATE 25. BASED
ON RADAR...SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...HAVE BUMPED UP
OUR POPS TO INCLUDE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FROM
STORMS DUE TO SLOW STEERING WINDS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FROM 125 TO 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

QUIET WEATHER SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST A BIT OF CONVECTION
OVER THE FAR SRN MTNS. DO NOT SEE MUCH ACTIVITY SPREADING EAST
INTO THIS EVENING AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. THIS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA LATER TONIGHT
AND COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS FORM OVER MAINLY NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PARTS OF THE CWA AS IT DOES SO.

MAIN ATTENTION WILL BE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY AS
AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION INTERACTS WITH SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPPING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AN DECENT
INSTABILITY. SHOULD SEE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST FAVORED
AREA BEING SE WYOMING OVER AND CLOSE TO THE MTNS WHERE UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED. INDIVIDUAL STORMS LIKELY TO BE SLOW MOVING
WITH HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
FASTER WITH THE PCPN AND PRETTY MUCH CLEAR IT OUT OF THE CWA BY
LATE WEDS MORNING. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION BUT RECENT DRYNESS AND FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM
WOULD TEND TO MITIGATE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL THUS HAVE OPTED TO HOLD
OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO REVISIT THIS
IF GENERAL QPF LOOKS TO BE HIGHER.  CLEARING CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS COOLER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH
CLOUDS AND PCPN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING
OF THE WAVES RIDING OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE ROCKIES.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY:
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS A
FAIRLY STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE KEEPS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED IN COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
OVERLY WARM EITHER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND 80S.
MEANWHILE...THE MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...BUT WITH LIMITED CAPE (LESS THAN 500
J/KG) WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE.

SATURDAY-MONDAY:
A FAIR STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL CAUSE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO SURGE THROUGH AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. AHEAD
OF AND ALONG THIS FRONT...WE MAY SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE 0-6KM SHEAR
INCREASES TO 30 TO 40 KTS WITH CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO ABOVE
500J/KG. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TIMEFRAME ESPECIALLY
IF THIS WAVE TRANSVERSES A LITTLE FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT THE GFS
PROGS. TEMPERATURE WISE WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

NEBRASKA AERODROMES...THROUGH 15Z ISOLATED SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...SOUTH OF A SCOTTSBLUFF TO BRIDGEPORT LINE
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS AND
TURBULENCE WITH LOCALIZED MVFR...OTHERWISE VFR. AREAS OF FOG LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING.

AFTER 15Z...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON...MOST NUMEROUS SOUTH OF A SCOTTSBLUFF TO ALLIANCE
LINE...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE.

WYOMING AERODROMES...THROUGH 15Z ISOLATED SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS AND TURBULENCE WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR...OTHERWISE VFR.

AFTER 15Z...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON...MOST NUMEROUS EAST OF A LARAMIE TO WHEATLAND LINE...
WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND LOCALIZED
TURBULENCE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

CONCERNS EXPECTED TO BE LOW OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
NON-CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WETTING RAINS LOOK
LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY OVER AND CLOSE TO THE MTNS WHERE PCPN SHOULD BE
ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RUBIN
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...RE






000
FXUS65 KCYS 290542
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1142 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

GRIDDED FORECASTS MODIFIED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT TO INCLUDE
AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW AND NAM AND GFS INDICATING SOME WEAK MESOSCALE LIFT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH WEAK STEERING WINDS AND FORECAST PRECIPITABLE
WATER...A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. BOUNDARY
LAYER PROGS SUGGEST AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF INTERSTATE 25 AND SOUTH OF A SCOTTSBLUFF TO ALLIANCE LINE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

IN OUR GRIDDED FORECASTS...WE HAVE UPDATED THE AREAL COVERAGE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING BASED ON OUR CHEYENNE AND DENVER
WSR-88D REFLECTIVITY LOOPS SHOWING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN LARAMIE AND WESTERN KIMBALL COUNTIES
FROM BURNS TO PINE BLUFFS TO BUSHNELL AND KIMBALL. ALSO ADJUSTED
QPF GRIDS TO MATCH EXPECTED RAINFALL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 547 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

CHEYENNE AND DENVER WSR-88D REFLECTIVITIES INDICATING
ISOLATED SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS FROM CHEYENNE TO SIDNEY...
WITH MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF INTERSTATE 25. BASED
ON RADAR...SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...HAVE BUMPED UP
OUR POPS TO INCLUDE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FROM
STORMS DUE TO SLOW STEERING WINDS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FROM 125 TO 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

QUIET WEATHER SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST A BIT OF CONVECTION
OVER THE FAR SRN MTNS. DO NOT SEE MUCH ACTIVITY SPREADING EAST
INTO THIS EVENING AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. THIS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA LATER TONIGHT
AND COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS FORM OVER MAINLY NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PARTS OF THE CWA AS IT DOES SO.

MAIN ATTENTION WILL BE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY AS
AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION INTERACTS WITH SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPPING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AN DECENT
INSTABILITY. SHOULD SEE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST FAVORED
AREA BEING SE WYOMING OVER AND CLOSE TO THE MTNS WHERE UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED. INDIVIDUAL STORMS LIKELY TO BE SLOW MOVING
WITH HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
FASTER WITH THE PCPN AND PRETTY MUCH CLEAR IT OUT OF THE CWA BY
LATE WEDS MORNING. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION BUT RECENT DRYNESS AND FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM
WOULD TEND TO MITIGATE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL THUS HAVE OPTED TO HOLD
OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO REVISIT THIS
IF GENERAL QPF LOOKS TO BE HIGHER.  CLEARING CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS COOLER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH
CLOUDS AND PCPN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING
OF THE WAVES RIDING OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE ROCKIES.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY:
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS A
FAIRLY STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE KEEPS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED IN COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
OVERLY WARM EITHER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND 80S.
MEANWHILE...THE MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...BUT WITH LIMITED CAPE (LESS THAN 500
J/KG) WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE.

SATURDAY-MONDAY:
A FAIR STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL CAUSE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO SURGE THROUGH AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. AHEAD
OF AND ALONG THIS FRONT...WE MAY SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE 0-6KM SHEAR
INCREASES TO 30 TO 40 KTS WITH CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO ABOVE
500J/KG. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TIMEFRAME ESPECIALLY
IF THIS WAVE TRANSVERSES A LITTLE FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT THE GFS
PROGS. TEMPERATURE WISE WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

NEBRASKA AERODROMES...THROUGH 15Z ISOLATED SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...SOUTH OF A SCOTTSBLUFF TO BRIDGEPORT LINE
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS AND
TURBULENCE WITH LOCALIZED MVFR...OTHERWISE VFR. AREAS OF FOG LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING.

AFTER 15Z...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON...MOST NUMEROUS SOUTH OF A SCOTTSBLUFF TO ALLIANCE
LINE...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE.

WYOMING AERODROMES...THROUGH 15Z ISOLATED SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS AND TURBULENCE WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR...OTHERWISE VFR.

AFTER 15Z...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON...MOST NUMEROUS EAST OF A LARAMIE TO WHEATLAND LINE...
WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND LOCALIZED
TURBULENCE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

CONCERNS EXPECTED TO BE LOW OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
NON-CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WETTING RAINS LOOK
LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY OVER AND CLOSE TO THE MTNS WHERE PCPN SHOULD BE
ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RUBIN
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...RE






000
FXUS65 KCYS 290542
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1142 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

GRIDDED FORECASTS MODIFIED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT TO INCLUDE
AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW AND NAM AND GFS INDICATING SOME WEAK MESOSCALE LIFT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH WEAK STEERING WINDS AND FORECAST PRECIPITABLE
WATER...A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. BOUNDARY
LAYER PROGS SUGGEST AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF INTERSTATE 25 AND SOUTH OF A SCOTTSBLUFF TO ALLIANCE LINE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

IN OUR GRIDDED FORECASTS...WE HAVE UPDATED THE AREAL COVERAGE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING BASED ON OUR CHEYENNE AND DENVER
WSR-88D REFLECTIVITY LOOPS SHOWING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN LARAMIE AND WESTERN KIMBALL COUNTIES
FROM BURNS TO PINE BLUFFS TO BUSHNELL AND KIMBALL. ALSO ADJUSTED
QPF GRIDS TO MATCH EXPECTED RAINFALL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 547 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

CHEYENNE AND DENVER WSR-88D REFLECTIVITIES INDICATING
ISOLATED SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS FROM CHEYENNE TO SIDNEY...
WITH MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF INTERSTATE 25. BASED
ON RADAR...SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...HAVE BUMPED UP
OUR POPS TO INCLUDE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FROM
STORMS DUE TO SLOW STEERING WINDS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FROM 125 TO 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

QUIET WEATHER SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST A BIT OF CONVECTION
OVER THE FAR SRN MTNS. DO NOT SEE MUCH ACTIVITY SPREADING EAST
INTO THIS EVENING AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. THIS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA LATER TONIGHT
AND COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS FORM OVER MAINLY NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PARTS OF THE CWA AS IT DOES SO.

MAIN ATTENTION WILL BE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY AS
AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION INTERACTS WITH SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPPING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AN DECENT
INSTABILITY. SHOULD SEE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST FAVORED
AREA BEING SE WYOMING OVER AND CLOSE TO THE MTNS WHERE UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED. INDIVIDUAL STORMS LIKELY TO BE SLOW MOVING
WITH HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
FASTER WITH THE PCPN AND PRETTY MUCH CLEAR IT OUT OF THE CWA BY
LATE WEDS MORNING. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION BUT RECENT DRYNESS AND FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM
WOULD TEND TO MITIGATE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL THUS HAVE OPTED TO HOLD
OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO REVISIT THIS
IF GENERAL QPF LOOKS TO BE HIGHER.  CLEARING CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS COOLER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH
CLOUDS AND PCPN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING
OF THE WAVES RIDING OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE ROCKIES.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY:
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS A
FAIRLY STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE KEEPS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED IN COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
OVERLY WARM EITHER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND 80S.
MEANWHILE...THE MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...BUT WITH LIMITED CAPE (LESS THAN 500
J/KG) WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE.

SATURDAY-MONDAY:
A FAIR STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL CAUSE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO SURGE THROUGH AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. AHEAD
OF AND ALONG THIS FRONT...WE MAY SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE 0-6KM SHEAR
INCREASES TO 30 TO 40 KTS WITH CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO ABOVE
500J/KG. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TIMEFRAME ESPECIALLY
IF THIS WAVE TRANSVERSES A LITTLE FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT THE GFS
PROGS. TEMPERATURE WISE WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

NEBRASKA AERODROMES...THROUGH 15Z ISOLATED SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...SOUTH OF A SCOTTSBLUFF TO BRIDGEPORT LINE
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS AND
TURBULENCE WITH LOCALIZED MVFR...OTHERWISE VFR. AREAS OF FOG LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING.

AFTER 15Z...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON...MOST NUMEROUS SOUTH OF A SCOTTSBLUFF TO ALLIANCE
LINE...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE.

WYOMING AERODROMES...THROUGH 15Z ISOLATED SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS AND TURBULENCE WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR...OTHERWISE VFR.

AFTER 15Z...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON...MOST NUMEROUS EAST OF A LARAMIE TO WHEATLAND LINE...
WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND LOCALIZED
TURBULENCE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

CONCERNS EXPECTED TO BE LOW OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
NON-CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WETTING RAINS LOOK
LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY OVER AND CLOSE TO THE MTNS WHERE PCPN SHOULD BE
ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RUBIN
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...RE






000
FXUS65 KCYS 290542
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1142 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

GRIDDED FORECASTS MODIFIED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT TO INCLUDE
AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW AND NAM AND GFS INDICATING SOME WEAK MESOSCALE LIFT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH WEAK STEERING WINDS AND FORECAST PRECIPITABLE
WATER...A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. BOUNDARY
LAYER PROGS SUGGEST AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF INTERSTATE 25 AND SOUTH OF A SCOTTSBLUFF TO ALLIANCE LINE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

IN OUR GRIDDED FORECASTS...WE HAVE UPDATED THE AREAL COVERAGE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING BASED ON OUR CHEYENNE AND DENVER
WSR-88D REFLECTIVITY LOOPS SHOWING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN LARAMIE AND WESTERN KIMBALL COUNTIES
FROM BURNS TO PINE BLUFFS TO BUSHNELL AND KIMBALL. ALSO ADJUSTED
QPF GRIDS TO MATCH EXPECTED RAINFALL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 547 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

CHEYENNE AND DENVER WSR-88D REFLECTIVITIES INDICATING
ISOLATED SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS FROM CHEYENNE TO SIDNEY...
WITH MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF INTERSTATE 25. BASED
ON RADAR...SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...HAVE BUMPED UP
OUR POPS TO INCLUDE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FROM
STORMS DUE TO SLOW STEERING WINDS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FROM 125 TO 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

QUIET WEATHER SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST A BIT OF CONVECTION
OVER THE FAR SRN MTNS. DO NOT SEE MUCH ACTIVITY SPREADING EAST
INTO THIS EVENING AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. THIS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA LATER TONIGHT
AND COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS FORM OVER MAINLY NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PARTS OF THE CWA AS IT DOES SO.

MAIN ATTENTION WILL BE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY AS
AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION INTERACTS WITH SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPPING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AN DECENT
INSTABILITY. SHOULD SEE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST FAVORED
AREA BEING SE WYOMING OVER AND CLOSE TO THE MTNS WHERE UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED. INDIVIDUAL STORMS LIKELY TO BE SLOW MOVING
WITH HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
FASTER WITH THE PCPN AND PRETTY MUCH CLEAR IT OUT OF THE CWA BY
LATE WEDS MORNING. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION BUT RECENT DRYNESS AND FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM
WOULD TEND TO MITIGATE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL THUS HAVE OPTED TO HOLD
OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO REVISIT THIS
IF GENERAL QPF LOOKS TO BE HIGHER.  CLEARING CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS COOLER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH
CLOUDS AND PCPN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING
OF THE WAVES RIDING OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE ROCKIES.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY:
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS A
FAIRLY STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE KEEPS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED IN COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
OVERLY WARM EITHER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND 80S.
MEANWHILE...THE MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...BUT WITH LIMITED CAPE (LESS THAN 500
J/KG) WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE.

SATURDAY-MONDAY:
A FAIR STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL CAUSE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO SURGE THROUGH AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. AHEAD
OF AND ALONG THIS FRONT...WE MAY SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE 0-6KM SHEAR
INCREASES TO 30 TO 40 KTS WITH CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO ABOVE
500J/KG. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TIMEFRAME ESPECIALLY
IF THIS WAVE TRANSVERSES A LITTLE FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT THE GFS
PROGS. TEMPERATURE WISE WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

NEBRASKA AERODROMES...THROUGH 15Z ISOLATED SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...SOUTH OF A SCOTTSBLUFF TO BRIDGEPORT LINE
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS AND
TURBULENCE WITH LOCALIZED MVFR...OTHERWISE VFR. AREAS OF FOG LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING.

AFTER 15Z...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON...MOST NUMEROUS SOUTH OF A SCOTTSBLUFF TO ALLIANCE
LINE...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE.

WYOMING AERODROMES...THROUGH 15Z ISOLATED SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS AND TURBULENCE WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR...OTHERWISE VFR.

AFTER 15Z...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON...MOST NUMEROUS EAST OF A LARAMIE TO WHEATLAND LINE...
WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND LOCALIZED
TURBULENCE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

CONCERNS EXPECTED TO BE LOW OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
NON-CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WETTING RAINS LOOK
LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY OVER AND CLOSE TO THE MTNS WHERE PCPN SHOULD BE
ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RUBIN
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...RE






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