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000
FXUS65 KCYS 241806
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1206 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM.
SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE CLEARING OUT NICELY IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE.
WINDS THIS AFTN WILL BE WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT IS
NOT AS STRONG. 1 KM AGL WINDS ARE GENERALLY 30-35 KTS OVER
SOUTHEAST WY WITH 20-25 KTS OVER THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
WITH THE DEEP MIXING THAT IS PROGGED...AFTN MIN RH VALUES WILL
DROP TO 15-20 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS. UPGRADED THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR FWZ 312 AND 313 (THE
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE) AS RH VALUES WILL BE AROUND 15
PERCENT WITH WEST WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH. WIND WILL DROP OFF
NICELY TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD ALONG WITH A
LOSS OF LLVL MIXING.

FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON FRI AS A LARGE SCALE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. SFC WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY. ABOUT 5 DEGREES OF WARMING IS
EXPECTED AS 700MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 7C BY THE AFTN. WILL LIKELY
BE GREATER COVERAGE OF AFTN CUMULUS AS LI VALUES FALL TO AROUND
0C...HOWEVER SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIMITED. FLOW ALOFT BACKS
TO THE SOUTH ON SAT AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO UTAH. ANOTHER
WARM DAY WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE BY THE AFTN AS LARGE SCALE LIFT BEGINS TO SPREAD OVER THE
REGION. INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS OVER THE CWA DURING THE
AFTN WITH THE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY. COLD FRONT DOES NOT MOVE OVER THE CWA UNTIL LATE SAT
EVENING AND INTO SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT...TIGHTLY WRAPPED UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS TO EAST CENTRAL OR SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY
DAWN...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN DOWNSLOPE
NORTHWESTERLY OVER OUR COUNTIES...IT APPEARS THAT STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE ABLE TO COMPENSATE FOR LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE...
PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...WITH GREATEST AREAL
COVERAGE OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES APPEAR COLD ENOUGH
FOR A TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS EXCEPT WESTERN
NEBRASKA. ENOUGH DYNAMICAL LIFT FOR ISOLATED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

SUNDAY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PIVOTS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...PRODUCING PLENTY OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER OUR COUNTIES...MOST NUMEROUS
OVER THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED MOUNTAINS. WILL BE INTERESTING TO
SEE OF TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...THOUGH FOR NOW...
PROGGED THICKNESSES SUGGEST MOSTLY RAIN EAST OF INTERSTATE 25.
BLUSTERY AND RAW DAY WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES.

MONDAY...UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST...THOUGH STILL
PRODUCING AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER OUR COUNTIES IN THE
WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION BAND. CONTINUED COOL AND WINDY PER PROGGED
GRADIENTS AND THICKNESSES.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER WINDY AND UNSETTLED DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EASTWARD...THOUGH WITH ANOTHER VORTICITY TAIL LIKELY
AFFECTING OUR EASTERN COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE WRAPAROUND
PRECIPITATION BAND.

WEDNESDAY...MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END AS THE UPPER
TROUGH PROGRESSES FURTHER EAST...AND BELIEVE THE ECMWF IS OVERDONE
WITH RESPECT TO QPF...AND PREFER THE DRIER GFS QPF VERSION.
CONTINUED COOL AND WINDY PER PROGGED GRADIENTS AND THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KTS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING...AND 20 TO 30 KTS IN NEBRASKA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WINDS WILL EASE AFTER
SUNSET...AND WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE FRIDAY
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH A HIGH CLOUD DECK
MOVING OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 338 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...MINIMUM
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 15 PERCENT. IN
ADDITION...WEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT
RANGE. WINDS WILL BE WEAKER ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SO ONLY AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS FORECASTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ312-313.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH






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000
FXUS65 KRIW 241722
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1120 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...THE SOUTHERN
REACHES OF AN ATTENDANT SHORT WAVE WILL GRAZE THE NORTHERN ZONES
EARLY...BUT THE RADAR LOOKS PRETTY QUIET SO FAR...IT IS DOUBTFUL
THAT THIS WAVE WILL HAVE MUCH IMPACT. FLAT RIDGING BUILDS IN QUICKLY
BEHIND THIS WAVE THIS MORNING WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO HOLD FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME MOISTURE ALREADY
ARRIVING IN THE FAR WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM WITH SOME
WAA SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT DIGGING TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL SEND OUT A LEADING
SHORT WAVE SET TO ARRIVE IN THE WEST EARLY THIS EVENING. A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH NOT
MUCH IMPACT. RAIN AND SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY BLANKET THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS BY FRIDAY EVENING AS THE BROAD LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH ARRIVE. HOWEVER MILD SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS REMAINING
HIGH. EAST OF THE DIVIDE...DRY AND WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL COMBINE
WITH GUSTY WIND TO CREATE HAZARDOUS FIRE CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND ESPECIALLY DRIER RIVER BOTTOMS
ACROSS SWEETWATER...LINCOLN...SOUTHERN SUBLETTE...NATRONA...AND
FREMONT COUNTIES.

THE TROUGH DOES NOT PROGRESS TO QUICKLY TO THE EAST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS IT CONCENTRATES ON DIGGING SOUTHWARD. IT EVENTUALLY
MOVES ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON SATURDAY AND BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED. THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO EXACTLY
WHERE LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE FOCUSED...BUT IF IT DOES HAPPEN AS
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS THIS SHOULD SET UP FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW EAST
OF THE DIVIDE...BACKING SOME MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL BASINS. AT
THE SAME TIME THE COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING EAST DURING THE
EVENING...LOWERING SNOW LEVELS TO ABOUT 6500FT EAST OF THE DIVIDE
AND TO THE VALLEY FLOORS ACROSS THE WEST. BROAD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
COMBINED WITH THE FROPA...NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH...STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION...AS WELL AS POTENTIALLY
FAVORABLE SURFACE FLOW LED TO SOME GENEROUS POPS FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT RECENT MODEL INCONSISTENCIES ARE LEADING TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE BUT AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT HAS POTENTIAL TO DROP SOME MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A STRONG...NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW IS PROJECTED TO BE
ACROSS THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS/WESTERN
NEBRASKA SUNDAY. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM...AND SOME
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE EAST OF THE DIVIDE WILL GIVE THE FAR EAST A VERY
GOOD SHOT FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY...BUT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL HAVE A
CHANCE AT SOME PRECIPITATION. JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES COULD SEE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY. HOWEVER STACKED LOWS HAVE THE
TENDENCY TO HAVE A SHARP EDGE TO THE WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION. THUS
THE EXACT TRACK WILL BE CRITICAL. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
MOUNTAIN SNOW...VALLEY RAIN WITH SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY ABOUT 7500
FEET...BUT LOWERING WITH TIME SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM MAKING VERY SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH A REX BLOCK OVER CENTRAL CANADA/U.S.
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE CORE UPPER LOW...AS WELL AS
DISTURBANCES SLIDING SOUTHEAST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MEAN TROUGH
WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE
WEST COAST TUESDAY. HOWEVER THE MAIN DIFFERENCE FROM LAST NIGHTS RUN
IS THAT GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF KEEPING THE STRONG RIDGE
OVER THE WEST COAST...OR PERHAPS FOLDING OVER INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THUS THE TREND IS FOR COOLER CONDITIONS AND
POSSIBLY SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. HAVING SAID THAT WILL TREND POPS DOWN
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH ONLY SLIGHT MOUNTAIN POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE...WITH WELL BELOW
AVERAGE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY EAST OF THE DIVIDE.

ON A HYDROLOGY NOTE...UNLESS THE SYSTEM COMES IN WARMER THAN
FORECAST...NOT EXPECTING RAIN ON THE MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK. THERE COULD
EASILY BE MINOR RISES ON SMALL CREEKS/STREAMS FROM PREVIOUS WARM
DAYS...AND FROM THE LOW ELEVATION RAIN EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO POSSIBLY
MONDAY. HOWEVER THE PROBABILITIES FOR SMALL STREAM/CREEK FLOODING AT
THIS TIME IS VERY LOW THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...UNLESS THIS
SYSTEM IS WARMER THAN FORECAST AND WE GET RAIN ON THE MOUNTAIN
SNOWPACK.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.
HOWEVER GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AFTER 20Z THIS
AFTERNOON AT MOST LOCATIONS. ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN BIGHORN MOUNTAINS FROM 00Z
TONIGHT THRU 18Z FRIDAY.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR IN THE NW WY MOUNTAINS THIS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN THE NW WY
MOUNTAINS AFTER 20Z AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z
FRIDAY. THE KJAC TERMINAL SITE WILL SEE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
VCNTY AFTER 19Z AND THEN A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM 22Z
UNTIL 02Z. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL OCCUR AT KJAC BY 11Z
FRIDAY. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN NW WY LASTING THROUGH 18Z
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT THE KBPI/KRKS/KPNA
TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MILD AND BREEZY AGAIN TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE RAWLINS DISPATCH
AREA...WITH MIN RH`S IN THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH 40 TO 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...RAIN SHOWERS
WILL RETURN TO TETON DISPATCH THIS AFTERNOON AS A QUICK MOVING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WARM AND DRY AGAIN ON
FRIDAY EAST OF THE DIVIDE...WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND BREEZY 20 TO 35
MPH SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS ACROSS RAWLINS AND SOUTHERN CASPER DISPATCH
ZONES. RAIN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE WEST ONCE AGAIN. THIS
WEEKEND WILL COOL BACK OFF QUITE A BIT AS YET ANOTHER SPRING SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH...WITH EVERYONE GETTING SOME CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS
AND/OR SNOW...ALONG WITH INCREASED WINDS...AND A CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...BRAUN
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN










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000
FXUS63 KUNR 241714
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1114 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS
KS AND TO THE NORTH NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN
SK. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TROF STRETCHING SOUTHWARD FROM SK
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. RIDGE IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NW. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING TO THE EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS INTO CENTRAL SD. TEMPS ARE IN THE 30S OVER NORTHEAST
WY AND FAR WESTERN SD...WITH 40S TOWARD CENTRAL SD. WINDS ARE
MOSTLY FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

EVEN WITH SOME COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE LATE THIS WEEK. AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA...DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR A
COUPLE MORE DAYS BEFORE A WET AND COOLER STRETCH OF WEATHER DEVELOPS
OVER THE WEEKEND.

FOR TODAY...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS OVER WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHERN SK WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY...BUT FAIRLY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY TO WINDY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD PLAINS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MAX OUT IN THE 60S
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH SOME 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS.
TEMPS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL APPROACH 70 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON. HUMIDITIES WILL BE RATHER LOW THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES FORECAST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
SOME FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED...SEE THE DISCUSSION
BELOW. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS
AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY.
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT IN...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID
70S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY...AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BEHIND EXITING RIDGE. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL CLIP NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM NORTHEAST
WY INTO NORTHWESTERN SD. THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO BE TOWARD FAR
NORTHWESTERN SD OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AS STRONG UPPER TROF WORKS INTO THE
ROCKIES...WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER ERN CO. STRONG ELY BL
TRANSPORT WILL RESULT IN MOISTENING LOW LEVELS AND A CHANCE FOR
TSTMS DURING THE AFTN ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES AS UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY ROTATES NEWD AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. TEMPS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH THERMAL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE. PCPN CHANCES THEN
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS UPPER LOW FORMS
OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND DEEPENS AT IT MOVES EWD INTO THE
PLAINS. LATEST 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED THE UPPER LOW BACK A
BIT FURTHER NORTH...WHILE ALSO CONTINUING THE TREND OF SLOWING THE
SYSTEM DOWN. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE
UPPER LOW...WDSPRD PCPN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS OUR CWFA BEGINNING
SATURDAY NITE AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY...WITH MANY AREAS
RECEIVING AN INCH OR MORE QPF. AND IF THE LOW DOES STALL A BIT AS
SOME GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING...PCPN COULD CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK.
THERMAL PROFILES DO SUGGEST A MAINLY RAIN EVENT AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NERN WY
AND THE BLKHLS. IF SNOW LEVELS DO LOWER ON THE PLAINS...IT WOULD
LIKELY NOT BE UNTIL MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS COLDER AIR FINALLY WRAPS
INTO THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 1112 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING
LIGHT THIS EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ265.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...POJORLIE








000
FXUS65 KCYS 241126
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
526 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM.
SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE CLEARING OUT NICELY IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE.
WINDS THIS AFTN WILL BE WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT IS
NOT AS STRONG. 1 KM AGL WINDS ARE GENERALLY 30-35 KTS OVER
SOUTHEAST WY WITH 20-25 KTS OVER THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
WITH THE DEEP MIXING THAT IS PROGGED...AFTN MIN RH VALUES WILL
DROP TO 15-20 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS. UPGRADED THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR FWZ 312 AND 313 (THE
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE) AS RH VALUES WILL BE AROUND 15
PERCENT WITH WEST WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH. WIND WILL DROP OFF
NICELY TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD ALONG WITH A
LOSS OF LLVL MIXING.

FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON FRI AS A LARGE SCALE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. SFC WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY. ABOUT 5 DEGREES OF WARMING IS
EXPECTED AS 700MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 7C BY THE AFTN. WILL LIKELY
BE GREATER COVERAGE OF AFTN CUMULUS AS LI VALUES FALL TO AROUND
0C...HOWEVER SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIMITED. FLOW ALOFT BACKS
TO THE SOUTH ON SAT AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO UTAH. ANOTHER
WARM DAY WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE BY THE AFTN AS LARGE SCALE LIFT BEGINS TO SPREAD OVER THE
REGION. INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS OVER THE CWA DURING THE
AFTN WITH THE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY. COLD FRONT DOES NOT MOVE OVER THE CWA UNTIL LATE SAT
EVENING AND INTO SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT...TIGHTLY WRAPPED UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS TO EAST CENTRAL OR SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY
DAWN...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN DOWNSLOPE
NORTHWESTERLY OVER OUR COUNTIES...IT APPEARS THAT STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE ABLE TO COMPENSATE FOR LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE...
PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...WITH GREATEST AREAL
COVERAGE OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES APPEAR COLD ENOUGH
FOR A TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS EXCEPT WESTERN
NEBRASKA. ENOUGH DYNAMICAL LIFT FOR ISOLATED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

SUNDAY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PIVOTS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...PRODUCING PLENTY OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER OUR COUNTIES...MOST NUMEROUS
OVER THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED MOUNTAINS. WILL BE INTERESTING TO
SEE OF TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...THOUGH FOR NOW...
PROGGED THICKNESSES SUGGEST MOSTLY RAIN EAST OF INTERSTATE 25.
BLUSTERY AND RAW DAY WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES.

MONDAY...UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST...THOUGH STILL
PRODUCING AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER OUR COUNTIES IN THE
WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION BAND. CONTINUED COOL AND WINDY PER PROGGED
GRADIENTS AND THICKNESSES.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER WINDY AND UNSETTLED DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EASTWARD...THOUGH WITH ANOTHER VORTICITY TAIL LIKELY
AFFECTING OUR EASTERN COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE WRAPAROUND
PRECIPITATION BAND.

WEDNESDAY...MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END AS THE UPPER
TROUGH PROGRESSES FURTHER EAST...AND BELIEVE THE ECMWF IS OVERDONE
WITH RESPECT TO QPF...AND PREFER THE DRIER GFS QPF VERSION.
CONTINUED COOL AND WINDY PER PROGGED GRADIENTS AND THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 523 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR PREVAILS. WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 KNOTS THROUGH 00Z...THEN
WINDS SUBSIDING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 338 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...MINIMUM
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 15 PERCENT. IN
ADDITION...WEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT
RANGE. WINDS WILL BE WEAKER ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SO ONLY AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS FORECASTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ312-313.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH







000
FXUS65 KCYS 241005
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
405 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM.
SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE CLEARING OUT NICELY IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE.
WINDS THIS AFTN WILL BE WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT IS
NOT AS STRONG. 1 KM AGL WINDS ARE GENERALLY 30-35 KTS OVER
SOUTHEAST WY WITH 20-25 KTS OVER THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
WITH THE DEEP MIXING THAT IS PROGGED...AFTN MIN RH VALUES WILL
DROP TO 15-20 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS. UPGRADED THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR FWZ 312 AND 313 (THE
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE) AS RH VALUES WILL BE AROUND 15
PERCENT WITH WEST WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH. WIND WILL DROP OFF
NICELY TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD ALONG WITH A
LOSS OF LLVL MIXING.

FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON FRI AS A LARGE SCALE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. SFC WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY. ABOUT 5 DEGREES OF WARMING IS
EXPECTED AS 700MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 7C BY THE AFTN. WILL LIKELY
BE GREATER COVERAGE OF AFTN CUMULUS AS LI VALUES FALL TO AROUND
0C...HOWEVER SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIMITED. FLOW ALOFT BACKS
TO THE SOUTH ON SAT AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO UTAH. ANOTHER
WARM DAY WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE BY THE AFTN AS LARGE SCALE LIFT BEGINS TO SPREAD OVER THE
REGION. INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS OVER THE CWA DURING THE
AFTN WITH THE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY. COLD FRONT DOES NOT MOVE OVER THE CWA UNTIL LATE SAT
EVENING AND INTO SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT...TIGHTLY WRAPPED UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS TO EAST CENTRAL OR SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY
DAWN...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN DOWNSLOPE
NORTHWESTERLY OVER OUR COUNTIES...IT APPEARS THAT STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE ABLE TO COMPENSATE FOR LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE...
PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...WITH GREATEST AREAL
COVERAGE OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES APPEAR COLD ENOUGH
FOR A TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS EXCEPT WESTERN
NEBRASKA. ENOUGH DYNAMICAL LIFT FOR ISOLATED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

SUNDAY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PIVOTS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...PRODUCING PLENTY OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER OUR COUNTIES...MOST NUMEROUS
OVER THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED MOUNTAINS. WILL BE INTERESTING TO
SEE OF TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...THOUGH FOR NOW...
PROGGED THICKNESSES SUGGEST MOSTLY RAIN EAST OF INTERSTATE 25.
BLUSTERY AND RAW DAY WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES.

MONDAY...UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST...THOUGH STILL
PRODUCING AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER OUR COUNTIES IN THE
WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION BAND. CONTINUED COOL AND WINDY PER PROGGED
GRADIENTS AND THICKNESSES.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER WINDY AND UNSETTLED DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EASTWARD...THOUGH WITH ANOTHER VORTICITY TAIL LIKELY
AFFECTING OUR EASTERN COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE WRAPAROUND
PRECIPITATION BAND.

WEDNESDAY...MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END AS THE UPPER
TROUGH PROGRESSES FURTHER EAST...AND BELIEVE THE ECMWF IS OVERDONE
WITH RESPECT TO QPF...AND PREFER THE DRIER GFS QPF VERSION.
CONTINUED COOL AND WINDY PER PROGGED GRADIENTS AND THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR PREVAILS.

WYOMING TAFS...WINDS GUSTING NEAR 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...THEN 35 TO
40 KNOTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THURSDAY.

NEBRASKA TAFS...WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30 KNOTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 338 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...MINIMUM
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 15 PERCENT. IN
ADDITION...WEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT
RANGE. WINDS WILL BE WEAKER ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SO ONLY AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS FORECASTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ312-313.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH





000
FXUS65 KRIW 240942
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
342 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...THE SOUTHERN
REACHES OF AN ATTENDANT SHORT WAVE WILL GRAZE THE NORTHERN ZONES
EARLY...BUT THE RADAR LOOKS PRETTY QUIET SO FAR...IT IS DOUBTFUL
THAT THIS WAVE WILL HAVE MUCH IMPACT. FLAT RIDGING BUILDS IN QUICKLY
BEHIND THIS WAVE THIS MORNING WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO HOLD FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME MOISTURE ALREADY
ARRIVING IN THE FAR WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM WITH SOME
WAA SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT DIGGING TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL SEND OUT A LEADING
SHORT WAVE SET TO ARRIVE IN THE WEST EARLY THIS EVENING. A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH NOT
MUCH IMPACT. RAIN AND SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY BLANKET THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS BY FRIDAY EVENING AS THE BROAD LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH ARRIVE. HOWEVER MILD SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS REMAINING
HIGH. EAST OF THE DIVIDE...DRY AND WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL COMBINE
WITH GUSTY WIND TO CREATE HAZARDOUS FIRE CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND ESPECIALLY DRIER RIVER BOTTOMS
ACROSS SWEETWATER...LINCOLN...SOUTHERN SUBLETTE...NATRONA...AND
FREMONT COUNTIES.

THE TROUGH DOES NOT PROGRESS TO QUICKLY TO THE EAST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS IT CONCENTRATES ON DIGGING SOUTHWARD. IT EVENTUALLY
MOVES ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON SATURDAY AND BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED. THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO EXACTLY
WHERE LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE FOCUSED...BUT IF IT DOES HAPPEN AS
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS THIS SHOULD SET UP FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW EAST
OF THE DIVIDE...BACKING SOME MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL BASINS. AT
THE SAME TIME THE COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING EAST DURING THE
EVENING...LOWERING SNOW LEVELS TO ABOUT 6500FT EAST OF THE DIVIDE
AND TO THE VALLEY FLOORS ACROSS THE WEST. BROAD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
COMBINED WITH THE FROPA...NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH...STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION...AS WELL AS POTENTIALLY
FAVORABLE SURFACE FLOW LED TO SOME GENEROUS POPS FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT RECENT MODEL INCONSISTENCIES ARE LEADING TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE BUT AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT HAS POTENTIAL TO DROP SOME MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A STRONG...NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW IS PROJECTED TO BE
ACROSS THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS/WESTERN
NEBRASKA SUNDAY. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM...AND SOME
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE EAST OF THE DIVIDE WILL GIVE THE FAR EAST A VERY
GOOD SHOT FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY...BUT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL HAVE A
CHANCE AT SOME PRECIPITATION. JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES COULD SEE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY. HOWEVER STACKED LOWS HAVE THE
TENDENCY TO HAVE A SHARP EDGE TO THE WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION. THUS
THE EXACT TRACK WILL BE CRITICAL. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
MOUNTAIN SNOW...VALLEY RAIN WITH SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY ABOUT 7500
FEET...BUT LOWERING WITH TIME SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM MAKING VERY SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH A REX BLOCK OVER CENTRAL CANADA/U.S.
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE CORE UPPER LOW...AS WELL AS
DISTURBANCES SLIDING SOUTHEAST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MEAN TROUGH
WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE
WEST COAST TUESDAY. HOWEVER THE MAIN DIFFERENCE FROM LAST NIGHTS RUN
IS THAT GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF KEEPING THE STRONG RIDGE
OVER THE WEST COAST...OR PERHAPS FOLDING OVER INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THUS THE TREND IS FOR COOLER CONDITIONS AND
POSSIBLY SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. HAVING SAID THAT WILL TREND POPS DOWN
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH ONLY SLIGHT MOUNTAIN POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE...WITH WELL BELOW
AVERAGE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY EAST OF THE DIVIDE.

ON A HYDROLOGY NOTE...UNLESS THE SYSTEM COMES IN WARMER THAN
FORECAST...NOT EXPECTING RAIN ON THE MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK. THERE
COULD EASILY BE MINOR RISES ON SMALL CREEKS/STREAMS FROM PREVIOUS WARM
DAYS...AND FROM THE LOW ELEVATION RAIN EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO
POSSIBLY MONDAY. HOWEVER THE PROBABILITIES FOR SMALL STREAM/CREEK
FLOODING AT THIS TIME IS VERY LOW THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...UNLESS THIS SYSTEM IS WARMER THAN FORECAST AND WE GET RAIN
ON THE MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN BIGHORN MOUNTAINS FROM 21Z
UNTIL 03Z.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR IN THE NW WY MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING. COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN THE NW WY
MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z
FRIDAY. THE KJAC TERMINAL SITE WILL SEE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY
AFTER 18Z AND THEN A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM 22Z UNTIL
02Z. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN NW WY AFTER 18Z THROUGH 06Z
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT THE KBPI/KRKS/KPNA
TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MILD AND BREEZY AGAIN TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE RAWLINS DISPATCH
AREA...WITH MIN RH`S IN THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH 40 TO 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...RAIN SHOWERS
WILL RETURN TO TETON DISPATCH THIS AFTERNOON AS A QUICK MOVING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WARM AND DRY AGAIN ON
FRIDAY EAST OF THE DIVIDE...WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND BREEZY 20 TO 35
MPH SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS ACROSS RAWLINS AND SOUTHERN CASPER DISPATCH
ZONES. RAIN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE WEST ONCE AGAIN. THIS
WEEKEND WILL COOL BACK OFF QUITE A BIT AS YET ANOTHER SPRING SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH...WITH EVERYONE GETTING SOME CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS
AND/OR SNOW...ALONG WITH INCREASED WINDS...AND A CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN








000
FXUS63 KUNR 240926
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
326 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS
KS AND TO THE NORTH NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN
SK. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TROF STRETCHING SOUTHWARD FROM SK
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. RIDGE IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NW. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING TO THE EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS INTO CENTRAL SD. TEMPS ARE IN THE 30S OVER NORTHEAST
WY AND FAR WESTERN SD...WITH 40S TOWARD CENTRAL SD. WINDS ARE
MOSTLY FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

EVEN WITH SOME COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE LATE THIS WEEK. AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA...DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR A
COUPLE MORE DAYS BEFORE A WET AND COOLER STRETCH OF WEATHER DEVELOPS
OVER THE WEEKEND.

FOR TODAY...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS OVER WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHERN SK WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY...BUT FAIRLY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY TO WINDY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD PLAINS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MAX OUT IN THE 60S
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH SOME 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS.
TEMPS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL APPROACH 70 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON. HUMIDITIES WILL BE RATHER LOW THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES FORECAST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
SOME FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED...SEE THE DISCUSSION
BELOW. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS
AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY.
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT IN...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID
70S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY...AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BEHIND EXITING RIDGE. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL CLIP NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM NORTHEAST
WY INTO NORTHWESTERN SD. THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO BE TOWARD FAR
NORTHWESTERN SD OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AS STRONG UPPER TROF WORKS INTO THE
ROCKIES...WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER ERN CO. STRONG ELY BL
TRANSPORT WILL RESULT IN MOISTENING LOW LEVELS AND A CHANCE FOR
TSTMS DURING THE AFTN ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES AS UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY ROTATES NEWD AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. TEMPS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH THERMAL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE. PCPN CHANCES THEN
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS UPPER LOW FORMS
OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND DEEPENS AT IT MOVES EWD INTO THE
PLAINS. LATEST 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED THE UPPER LOW BACK A
BIT FURTHER NORTH...WHILE ALSO CONTINUING THE TREND OF SLOWING THE
SYSTEM DOWN. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE
UPPER LOW...WDSPRD PCPN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS OUR CWFA BEGINNING
SATURDAY NITE AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY...WITH MANY AREAS
RECEIVING AN INCH OR MORE QPF. AND IF THE LOW DOES STALL A BIT AS
SOME GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING...PCPN COULD CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK.
THERMAL PROFILES DO SUGGEST A MAINLY RAIN EVENT AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NERN WY
AND THE BLKHLS. IF SNOW LEVELS DO LOWER ON THE PLAINS...IT WOULD
LIKELY NOT BE UNTIL MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS COLDER AIR FINALLY WRAPS
INTO THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS AND DRY AIR TO THE AREA TODAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15
TO 25 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...CAN BE EXPECTED FROM NORTHWEST
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THE DRY AIR AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DROP TO NEAR 15 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH MINIMUM VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT
ELSEWHERE. THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR SD FIRE ZONE 265 FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL BE IN THE EXTREME CATEGORY ACROSS MOST OF
THE WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD PLAINS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BY EARLY EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ265.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...26







000
FXUS63 KUNR 240926
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
326 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS
KS AND TO THE NORTH NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN
SK. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TROF STRETCHING SOUTHWARD FROM SK
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. RIDGE IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NW. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING TO THE EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS INTO CENTRAL SD. TEMPS ARE IN THE 30S OVER NORTHEAST
WY AND FAR WESTERN SD...WITH 40S TOWARD CENTRAL SD. WINDS ARE
MOSTLY FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

EVEN WITH SOME COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE LATE THIS WEEK. AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA...DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR A
COUPLE MORE DAYS BEFORE A WET AND COOLER STRETCH OF WEATHER DEVELOPS
OVER THE WEEKEND.

FOR TODAY...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS OVER WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHERN SK WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY...BUT FAIRLY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY TO WINDY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD PLAINS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MAX OUT IN THE 60S
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH SOME 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS.
TEMPS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL APPROACH 70 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON. HUMIDITIES WILL BE RATHER LOW THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES FORECAST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
SOME FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED...SEE THE DISCUSSION
BELOW. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS
AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY.
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT IN...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID
70S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY...AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BEHIND EXITING RIDGE. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL CLIP NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM NORTHEAST
WY INTO NORTHWESTERN SD. THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO BE TOWARD FAR
NORTHWESTERN SD OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AS STRONG UPPER TROF WORKS INTO THE
ROCKIES...WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER ERN CO. STRONG ELY BL
TRANSPORT WILL RESULT IN MOISTENING LOW LEVELS AND A CHANCE FOR
TSTMS DURING THE AFTN ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES AS UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY ROTATES NEWD AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. TEMPS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH THERMAL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE. PCPN CHANCES THEN
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS UPPER LOW FORMS
OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND DEEPENS AT IT MOVES EWD INTO THE
PLAINS. LATEST 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED THE UPPER LOW BACK A
BIT FURTHER NORTH...WHILE ALSO CONTINUING THE TREND OF SLOWING THE
SYSTEM DOWN. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE
UPPER LOW...WDSPRD PCPN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS OUR CWFA BEGINNING
SATURDAY NITE AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY...WITH MANY AREAS
RECEIVING AN INCH OR MORE QPF. AND IF THE LOW DOES STALL A BIT AS
SOME GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING...PCPN COULD CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK.
THERMAL PROFILES DO SUGGEST A MAINLY RAIN EVENT AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NERN WY
AND THE BLKHLS. IF SNOW LEVELS DO LOWER ON THE PLAINS...IT WOULD
LIKELY NOT BE UNTIL MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS COLDER AIR FINALLY WRAPS
INTO THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS AND DRY AIR TO THE AREA TODAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15
TO 25 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...CAN BE EXPECTED FROM NORTHWEST
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THE DRY AIR AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DROP TO NEAR 15 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH MINIMUM VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT
ELSEWHERE. THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR SD FIRE ZONE 265 FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL BE IN THE EXTREME CATEGORY ACROSS MOST OF
THE WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD PLAINS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BY EARLY EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ265.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...26







000
FXUS63 KUNR 240926
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
326 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS
KS AND TO THE NORTH NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN
SK. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TROF STRETCHING SOUTHWARD FROM SK
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. RIDGE IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NW. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING TO THE EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS INTO CENTRAL SD. TEMPS ARE IN THE 30S OVER NORTHEAST
WY AND FAR WESTERN SD...WITH 40S TOWARD CENTRAL SD. WINDS ARE
MOSTLY FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

EVEN WITH SOME COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE LATE THIS WEEK. AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA...DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR A
COUPLE MORE DAYS BEFORE A WET AND COOLER STRETCH OF WEATHER DEVELOPS
OVER THE WEEKEND.

FOR TODAY...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS OVER WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHERN SK WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY...BUT FAIRLY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY TO WINDY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD PLAINS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MAX OUT IN THE 60S
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH SOME 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS.
TEMPS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL APPROACH 70 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON. HUMIDITIES WILL BE RATHER LOW THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES FORECAST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
SOME FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED...SEE THE DISCUSSION
BELOW. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS
AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY.
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT IN...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID
70S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY...AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BEHIND EXITING RIDGE. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL CLIP NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM NORTHEAST
WY INTO NORTHWESTERN SD. THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO BE TOWARD FAR
NORTHWESTERN SD OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AS STRONG UPPER TROF WORKS INTO THE
ROCKIES...WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER ERN CO. STRONG ELY BL
TRANSPORT WILL RESULT IN MOISTENING LOW LEVELS AND A CHANCE FOR
TSTMS DURING THE AFTN ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES AS UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY ROTATES NEWD AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. TEMPS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH THERMAL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE. PCPN CHANCES THEN
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS UPPER LOW FORMS
OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND DEEPENS AT IT MOVES EWD INTO THE
PLAINS. LATEST 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED THE UPPER LOW BACK A
BIT FURTHER NORTH...WHILE ALSO CONTINUING THE TREND OF SLOWING THE
SYSTEM DOWN. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE
UPPER LOW...WDSPRD PCPN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS OUR CWFA BEGINNING
SATURDAY NITE AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY...WITH MANY AREAS
RECEIVING AN INCH OR MORE QPF. AND IF THE LOW DOES STALL A BIT AS
SOME GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING...PCPN COULD CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK.
THERMAL PROFILES DO SUGGEST A MAINLY RAIN EVENT AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NERN WY
AND THE BLKHLS. IF SNOW LEVELS DO LOWER ON THE PLAINS...IT WOULD
LIKELY NOT BE UNTIL MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS COLDER AIR FINALLY WRAPS
INTO THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS AND DRY AIR TO THE AREA TODAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15
TO 25 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...CAN BE EXPECTED FROM NORTHWEST
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THE DRY AIR AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DROP TO NEAR 15 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH MINIMUM VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT
ELSEWHERE. THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR SD FIRE ZONE 265 FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL BE IN THE EXTREME CATEGORY ACROSS MOST OF
THE WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD PLAINS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BY EARLY EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ265.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...26







000
FXUS63 KUNR 240926
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
326 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS
KS AND TO THE NORTH NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN
SK. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TROF STRETCHING SOUTHWARD FROM SK
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. RIDGE IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NW. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING TO THE EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS INTO CENTRAL SD. TEMPS ARE IN THE 30S OVER NORTHEAST
WY AND FAR WESTERN SD...WITH 40S TOWARD CENTRAL SD. WINDS ARE
MOSTLY FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

EVEN WITH SOME COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE LATE THIS WEEK. AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA...DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR A
COUPLE MORE DAYS BEFORE A WET AND COOLER STRETCH OF WEATHER DEVELOPS
OVER THE WEEKEND.

FOR TODAY...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS OVER WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHERN SK WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY...BUT FAIRLY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY TO WINDY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD PLAINS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MAX OUT IN THE 60S
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH SOME 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS.
TEMPS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL APPROACH 70 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON. HUMIDITIES WILL BE RATHER LOW THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES FORECAST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
SOME FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED...SEE THE DISCUSSION
BELOW. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS
AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY.
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT IN...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID
70S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY...AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BEHIND EXITING RIDGE. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL CLIP NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM NORTHEAST
WY INTO NORTHWESTERN SD. THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO BE TOWARD FAR
NORTHWESTERN SD OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AS STRONG UPPER TROF WORKS INTO THE
ROCKIES...WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER ERN CO. STRONG ELY BL
TRANSPORT WILL RESULT IN MOISTENING LOW LEVELS AND A CHANCE FOR
TSTMS DURING THE AFTN ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES AS UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY ROTATES NEWD AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. TEMPS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH THERMAL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE. PCPN CHANCES THEN
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS UPPER LOW FORMS
OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND DEEPENS AT IT MOVES EWD INTO THE
PLAINS. LATEST 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED THE UPPER LOW BACK A
BIT FURTHER NORTH...WHILE ALSO CONTINUING THE TREND OF SLOWING THE
SYSTEM DOWN. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE
UPPER LOW...WDSPRD PCPN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS OUR CWFA BEGINNING
SATURDAY NITE AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY...WITH MANY AREAS
RECEIVING AN INCH OR MORE QPF. AND IF THE LOW DOES STALL A BIT AS
SOME GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING...PCPN COULD CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK.
THERMAL PROFILES DO SUGGEST A MAINLY RAIN EVENT AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NERN WY
AND THE BLKHLS. IF SNOW LEVELS DO LOWER ON THE PLAINS...IT WOULD
LIKELY NOT BE UNTIL MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS COLDER AIR FINALLY WRAPS
INTO THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS AND DRY AIR TO THE AREA TODAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15
TO 25 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...CAN BE EXPECTED FROM NORTHWEST
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THE DRY AIR AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DROP TO NEAR 15 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH MINIMUM VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT
ELSEWHERE. THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR SD FIRE ZONE 265 FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL BE IN THE EXTREME CATEGORY ACROSS MOST OF
THE WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD PLAINS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BY EARLY EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ265.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...26







000
FXUS65 KCYS 240529
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1129 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 614 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

INCREASED POP THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS. RAIN WAS REPORTED IN SIDNEY IN THE LAST
HALF HOUR...OTHERWISE IT HAS BEEN DRY IN CHEYENNE AND KIMBALL SO
FAR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS THE DISTURBANCE QUICKLY MOVES EAST INTO KANSAS AND NEBRASKA.

ALSO UPDATED FORECAST TO ALLOW THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE THIS
EVENING. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA
TOMORROW WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS FURTHER WEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM DEAL WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. PLEASE SEE FIRE DISCUSSION BELOW.

CURRENTLY...COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON. STILL SEEING SOME PRETTY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH REPORTS IN THE PANHANDLE STILL SHOWING WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 42MPH AT THE SCOTTSBLUFF AND AGATE RAWS SITES.
SIDNEY HAS JUST RECENTLY BEGUN TO GET REALLY CLOSE TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA OUT THERE...SO WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY GOING THIS
AFTERNOON. IT MAY BE POSSIBLE TO CANCEL EARLY AS LATEST IR IMAGERY
SHOWING DENSE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER
THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE...SPREADING EAST.

WINDS WILL EASE SOME TONIGHT...THOUGH WOULD EXPECT OUR WIND PRONE
AREAS TO CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE ELEVATED WINDS. GFS 700MB WINDS
REMAIN STRONG TONIGHT...KEEPING 40+MPH WINDS GOING OVER ALBANY
COUNTY. 850MB WINS STAY UP ALL NIGHT AS WELL OUT OVER THE
PANHANDLE WITH 20 TO 25KTS FORECAST ON THE GFS. THIS SHOULD KEEP
OVERNIGHT HUMIDITIES FROM RECOVERING VERY WELL...SO WE WILL START
OFF THURSDAY PRETTY WARM AND DRY.

LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD MIX
WELL DURING THE AFTERNOON...REACHING POSSIBLY 600MBS WHERE WINDS
ARE FORECAST AT 35KTS ON THE USUALLY WEAKER NAM. THIS SHOULD BE
EASILY ENOUGH WINDS TO CREATE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE
PANHANDLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS 700MB TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM AS
WELL...WARMING FROM -4C THIS AFTERNOON...UP TO +2C TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...SO WE SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER OVER TODAYS HIGHS.

WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE CWFA. GFS FORECASTING 700MB TEMPERATURES OF +4C OVER SOUTHERN
WYOMING. SO AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE WITH UPPER 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 412 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE
LONG TERM. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
AND DESERT SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...AND LOOKS TO BECOME A STACKED
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ALONG WITH
STRONG PVA. THE LEESIDE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ON SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH A SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY. LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON FOR THIS AREA...WHICH INCLUDES NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLE AND EAST CENTRAL WYOMING. WITH THE ENERGETIC FLOW MOVING
OVERHEAD...WILL ALSO SEE ACTIVITY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. AREAS EAST OF THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE MAY LACK
OVERALL MOISTURE AND SFC FORCING TO SUPPORT TSTORMS UNTIL THE SFC
LOW WRAPS UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS SHOW THE SFC
LOW SLOW TO MOVE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO EXPECT CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS FOR THE NEBRASKA ZONES WHICH MAY STILL BE IN
THE WARM SECTOR AT THIS TIME. FURTHER WEST...WILL BEGIN TO SEE
MORE OF STEADY RAIN WITH SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRES THROUGH THE DAY. AS CAA INCREASES BEHIND
THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM THROUGH THE EVENING...WILL LIKELY SEE A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS
WELL. MAY NOT SEE SNOW IN THE PANHANDLE UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.
TIMING OF THIS CHANGEOVER WILL BE VERY TRICKY THO AS THE ORIGIN OF
THE COLD AIR LOOKS TO BE HIGHLY MODIFIED AIRMASS FROM THE PACIFIC
AND CONTINENTAL US...SO MAY NOT BE ALL THAT COLD IN GENERAL.
REGARDLESS...STRONG SFC AND MIDLEVEL FORCING WILL KEEP QPF ON THE
HIGHER END...WITH MODELS PRODUCING A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF QPF
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
SYSTEM WILL TREK TOWARD THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY...WITH WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE AND ENERGETIC NORTHWEST FLOW MAINTAINING CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY THROUGH
THIS TIME AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM DEPARTS. TUESDAY WILL SEE CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...BUT LESS MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR RAIN AND SNOW.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL FALL FROM THE 60S AND 70S ON SATURDAY...TO THE
40S AND 50S THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR PREVAILS.

WYOMING TAFS...WINDS GUSTING NEAR 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...THEN 35 TO
40 KNOTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THURSDAY.

NEBRASKA TAFS...WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30 KNOTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 412 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THURSDAY AS DOWNSLOPING WINDS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THE LOWER LAYERS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE. LOOKING AT MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES OF 10
TO 13 PERCENT WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH...ESPECIALLY FOR FIRE
ZONES 312 AND 313. WILL BE ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THESE ZONES. LOW PRESSURE CAUSING THESE
WINDS OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING
EAST. NEXT CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS WILL BE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO UTAH AND TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO. EVERYONE
SHOULD SEE ACCUMULATING RAINS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS THIS SLOW MOVING LOW MOVES NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NEZ312-313.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB







000
FXUS65 KRIW 240524
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1124 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY (ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT)

SAT IMAGERY SHOWS TROF CUTTING FROM N TO S OVR CNTRL WY...THEN OFF
TO THE CONUS SW. UPSTREAM...SMALL FAST MOVING SW THAT WILL AFFECT
OUR WRN MOUNTAINS TOMORROW...LOCATED BASE OF BROAD TROF WSW OF
OREGON NEAR 140W. SFC SHOWS N/S ORIENTED TROF/FRONT TO OUR W THRU
THE DAKOTAS AND WRN NE...ANCHORED IN E CNTRL CO. HIGH P LOCATED W
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.

THRU THE PERIOD...UPR TROF CURRENT IN PLACE OVERHEAD EXITS STAGE
EAST W/ RIDGING PROCEEDING FROM W TO E. GENERALLY...HIGH P WILL
BUILD IN W/ THE RIDGING W/ CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT MOST AREAS AND
DECREASING PRECIP CHCS WRN MOUNTAINS. LOWS DROPPING 5 TO 10 DEG OVR
THOSE THIS MORNING...WITH HIGHS WARMING SOME 10 +/- DEG THU AS H7
TEMPS ALSO RISE 4 TO 6 DEG C. THE SMALL FAST SW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL
CRUISE INTO AND THRU THE BUILDING RIDGE...ARRIVING IN OUR WRN ZONES
BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME MODEST MOISTURE FROM THE
EPAC. TERRAIN OROGRAPHICS WILL LARGELY DRIVE PRECIP ODE EARLY...WITH
SOME HELP THRU CONVECTIVE MODE IN THE AFTERNOON. NO HIGHLIGHTS WITH
THIS ACTIVITY EXCEPTED AS MOSTLY LOW END QPF SHOULD ONLY ACCUMULATE
AN INCH OR TWO AT BEST IN PREFERRED LOCATIONS AT HIGH ELEVATION.
OTHERWISE...WHILE SFC AND MID LVL T AND P PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
GUSTY W TO SW WINDS...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WARNING TYPE
SITUATION...ALTHOUGH WILL CERTAINLY BE WORTH MONITORING THE CODY
FOOTHILLS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. CURRENT
SPS REFLECTS THIS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

FLAT RIDGE MOVES OVER AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD BEFORE THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF OUR
SIGNIFICANT WEEKEND TROUGH. THE FIRST WEAK WAVE AND SOME ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE IS WORTHY OF SOME LOWER POPS IN THE FAR WEST...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EVENING. ON FRIDAY...THE FLOW BEGINS TO BACK AHEAD OF OUR TROUGH
WHICH WILL BE NEARING THE WEST COAST. ANOTHER POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE WEST...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH SNOW ABOVE 8500 FEET OR SO. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT EAST OF THE DIVIDE AS THIS WAVE LIFTS NE
ACROSS THE AREA BUT NOT COUNTING ON MUCH...ESPECIALLY LATER FRIDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SO LOWERED POPS EAST OF THE DIVIDE. EVEN INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SW...NOT
TOO EXCITED ABOUT POPS EAST OF THE DIVIDE. OUT WEST...YES. AS THE
DAY WEARS ON...HOWEVER...WE COULD SEE A SHORTWAVE LIFT NWD AND
COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY TO BREAK OUT MORE SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTH FOR SURE AND PROBABLY IN AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST
OF THE DIVIDE AND POSSIBLY ANYWHERE. THE WEST WILL REMAIN WET WITH
SNOW LEVELS OF 8000 FEET OR SO DEPENDING ON EXACT LOCATION OF THE
UPPER LOW. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
SYSTEM THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AND IS THUS WARMER WITH LESS OF A
CHANCE OF ANYTHING MAKING IT IN CENTRAL WYO. ONE CAVEAT TO THAT
WOULD BE POTENTIAL NRN SFC FRONT SAGGING INTO THE FAR NORTH BRINGING
SOME LOWER CLOUDS...LIGHT OVERRUNNING PCPN. MOST WILL LIKELY REMAIN
NORTH IN MT BUT WORTH MONITORING. MODELS ARE DIVERGING MORE TODAY AS
TO WHERE THIS SYSTEM WILL SET UP ONCE IT MOVES EAST OF THE DIVIDE
AND HOW SLOW IT WILL MOVE E OR NE. H7 TEMPS ARE IN THE -2 TO -4C
RANGE ON SUNDAY ON THE GFS AND EVEN WARMER ON THE ECMWF AND GEM.
MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY BE RAIN WITH THE FOOTHILLS
AND FAR NRN PORTIONS ABOVE 5K FEET OR SO HAVING A BETTER SHOT OF AT
LEAST A MIXTURE IF NOT A CHANGEOVER SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL SOLUTIONS
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK HAVE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THE ECMWF
SHOWING MORE RETROGRESSION AND HIGH OVER LOW PATTERN LEADING TO A
SLOWER MOVEMENT AND HIGHER CHANCES OF PCPN LINGERING EAST OF THE
DIVIDE INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GFS HAS THE RIDGE NOSING IN LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ALREADY. SO FAR THIS WINTER AND SPRING...A FASTER
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION HAS BEEN THE WAY TO GO AND THUS THE MODEL BLEND
WHICH IS FASTER WAS GENERALLY FOLLOWED. WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO
WATCH THIS SYSTEM THOUGH AS IT SHOULD HAVE HIGH IMPACT ALONG ITS PATH.


&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN BIGHORN MOUNTAINS FROM 21Z
THURSDAY UNTIL 03Z FRIDAY.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR IN THE NW WY MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING. COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN THE NW WY
MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z
FRIDAY. THE KJAC TERMINAL SITE WILL SEE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY
AFTER 18Z AND THEN A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM 22Z UNTIL
02Z. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN NW WY AFTER 18Z THROUGH 06Z
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT THE KBPI/KRKS/KPNA
TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER BREEZY...AND CONTINUE MOSTLY DRY EAST OF THE
DIVIDE WITH MIN RH`S IN THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH 40 TO 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...RAIN SHOWERS
WILL RETURN TO THE WEST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A QUICK MOVING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MAINLY WARM AND
DRY AGAIN ON FRIDAY EAST OF THE DIVIDE...WITH A LITTLE LESS WIND.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE WEST ONCE
AGAIN...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE AT LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE
BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WEEKEND WILL COOL BACK OFF QUITE A BIT AS
YET ANOTHER SPRING SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...WITH EVERYONE GETTING SOME
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...ALONG WITH INCREASED WINDS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN












000
FXUS63 KUNR 240435
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1035 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL LET
WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL US...WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES ARE GRADUALLY
CLEARING AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES CLOUDS EASTWARD. SURFACE TROUGH SITS
OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MAKING ITS
WAY THROUGH THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE TAKEN A LITTLE LONGER
THAN EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY...BUT HAVE FINALLY PICKED UP THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
SD.

THE UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE UPPER LOW AND MOST OF THE ENERGY
NORTH OF OUR CWA. MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST
OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT ACROSS WESTERN
SD BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER WY/CO AND THE EXITING TROUGH.
NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AGAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE TONED SPEEDS
DOWN. MAV IS SHOWING BARELY WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...WITH THE MET UNDER CRITERIA. AT THIS POINT DO NOT THINK
A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY...BUT LATER SHIFTS CAN REANALYZE.
DECREASED WINDS IN THE GRIDS...ALTHOUGH THEY STILL MIGHT BE A LITTLE
TOO STRONG.

UPPER RIDGING WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING DRIER
AIR AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 60S...50S IN THE HILLS. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY BRINGING MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONG UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH COOLER AIR NOW FILTERING IN SUNDAY. WDSPRD PCPN IS
STILL PROGGED TO BEGIN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS
SHOW UPPER LOW CROSSING THE COLORADO AREA SUNDAY...THEN SLOWLY CROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SO NOT MUCH ACCESS TO A COLDER AIRMASS WILL LIKELY KEEP
PRECIP AS RAIN INSTEAD OF SNOW...EXCEPT MAYBE DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BLACK HILLS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SNOW. ECMWF/GFS AGREE
WITH LIQUID QPF AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ263>266.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...7
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...7






000
FXUS63 KUNR 240435
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1035 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL LET
WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL US...WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES ARE GRADUALLY
CLEARING AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES CLOUDS EASTWARD. SURFACE TROUGH SITS
OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MAKING ITS
WAY THROUGH THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE TAKEN A LITTLE LONGER
THAN EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY...BUT HAVE FINALLY PICKED UP THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
SD.

THE UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE UPPER LOW AND MOST OF THE ENERGY
NORTH OF OUR CWA. MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST
OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT ACROSS WESTERN
SD BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER WY/CO AND THE EXITING TROUGH.
NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AGAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE TONED SPEEDS
DOWN. MAV IS SHOWING BARELY WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...WITH THE MET UNDER CRITERIA. AT THIS POINT DO NOT THINK
A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY...BUT LATER SHIFTS CAN REANALYZE.
DECREASED WINDS IN THE GRIDS...ALTHOUGH THEY STILL MIGHT BE A LITTLE
TOO STRONG.

UPPER RIDGING WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING DRIER
AIR AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 60S...50S IN THE HILLS. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY BRINGING MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONG UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH COOLER AIR NOW FILTERING IN SUNDAY. WDSPRD PCPN IS
STILL PROGGED TO BEGIN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS
SHOW UPPER LOW CROSSING THE COLORADO AREA SUNDAY...THEN SLOWLY CROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SO NOT MUCH ACCESS TO A COLDER AIRMASS WILL LIKELY KEEP
PRECIP AS RAIN INSTEAD OF SNOW...EXCEPT MAYBE DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BLACK HILLS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SNOW. ECMWF/GFS AGREE
WITH LIQUID QPF AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ263>266.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...7
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...7






000
FXUS63 KUNR 240435
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1035 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL LET
WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL US...WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES ARE GRADUALLY
CLEARING AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES CLOUDS EASTWARD. SURFACE TROUGH SITS
OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MAKING ITS
WAY THROUGH THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE TAKEN A LITTLE LONGER
THAN EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY...BUT HAVE FINALLY PICKED UP THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
SD.

THE UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE UPPER LOW AND MOST OF THE ENERGY
NORTH OF OUR CWA. MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST
OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT ACROSS WESTERN
SD BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER WY/CO AND THE EXITING TROUGH.
NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AGAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE TONED SPEEDS
DOWN. MAV IS SHOWING BARELY WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...WITH THE MET UNDER CRITERIA. AT THIS POINT DO NOT THINK
A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY...BUT LATER SHIFTS CAN REANALYZE.
DECREASED WINDS IN THE GRIDS...ALTHOUGH THEY STILL MIGHT BE A LITTLE
TOO STRONG.

UPPER RIDGING WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING DRIER
AIR AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 60S...50S IN THE HILLS. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY BRINGING MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONG UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH COOLER AIR NOW FILTERING IN SUNDAY. WDSPRD PCPN IS
STILL PROGGED TO BEGIN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS
SHOW UPPER LOW CROSSING THE COLORADO AREA SUNDAY...THEN SLOWLY CROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SO NOT MUCH ACCESS TO A COLDER AIRMASS WILL LIKELY KEEP
PRECIP AS RAIN INSTEAD OF SNOW...EXCEPT MAYBE DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BLACK HILLS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SNOW. ECMWF/GFS AGREE
WITH LIQUID QPF AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ263>266.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...7
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...7






000
FXUS63 KUNR 240435
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1035 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL LET
WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL US...WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES ARE GRADUALLY
CLEARING AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES CLOUDS EASTWARD. SURFACE TROUGH SITS
OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MAKING ITS
WAY THROUGH THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE TAKEN A LITTLE LONGER
THAN EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY...BUT HAVE FINALLY PICKED UP THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
SD.

THE UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE UPPER LOW AND MOST OF THE ENERGY
NORTH OF OUR CWA. MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST
OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT ACROSS WESTERN
SD BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER WY/CO AND THE EXITING TROUGH.
NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AGAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE TONED SPEEDS
DOWN. MAV IS SHOWING BARELY WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...WITH THE MET UNDER CRITERIA. AT THIS POINT DO NOT THINK
A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY...BUT LATER SHIFTS CAN REANALYZE.
DECREASED WINDS IN THE GRIDS...ALTHOUGH THEY STILL MIGHT BE A LITTLE
TOO STRONG.

UPPER RIDGING WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING DRIER
AIR AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 60S...50S IN THE HILLS. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY BRINGING MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONG UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH COOLER AIR NOW FILTERING IN SUNDAY. WDSPRD PCPN IS
STILL PROGGED TO BEGIN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS
SHOW UPPER LOW CROSSING THE COLORADO AREA SUNDAY...THEN SLOWLY CROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SO NOT MUCH ACCESS TO A COLDER AIRMASS WILL LIKELY KEEP
PRECIP AS RAIN INSTEAD OF SNOW...EXCEPT MAYBE DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BLACK HILLS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SNOW. ECMWF/GFS AGREE
WITH LIQUID QPF AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ263>266.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...7
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...7






000
FXUS65 KCYS 240028
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
628 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 614 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

INCREASED POP THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS. RAIN WAS REPORTED IN SIDNEY IN THE LAST
HALF HOUR...OTHERWISE IT HAS BEEN DRY IN CHEYENNE AND KIMBALL SO
FAR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS THE DISTURBANCE QUICKLY MOVES EAST INTO KANSAS AND NEBRASKA.

ALSO UPDATED FORECAST TO ALLOW THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE THIS
EVENING. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA
TOMORROW WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS FURTHER WEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM DEAL WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. PLEASE SEE FIRE DISCUSSION BELOW.

CURRENTLY...COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON. STILL SEEING SOME PRETTY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH REPORTS IN THE PANHANDLE STILL SHOWING WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 42MPH AT THE SCOTTSBLUFF AND AGATE RAWS SITES.
SIDNEY HAS JUST RECENTLY BEGUN TO GET REALLY CLOSE TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA OUT THERE...SO WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY GOING THIS
AFTERNOON. IT MAY BE POSSIBLE TO CANCEL EARLY AS LATEST IR IMAGERY
SHOWING DENSE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER
THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE...SPREADING EAST.

WINDS WILL EASE SOME TONIGHT...THOUGH WOULD EXPECT OUR WIND PRONE
AREAS TO CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE ELEVATED WINDS. GFS 700MB WINDS
REMAIN STRONG TONIGHT...KEEPING 40+MPH WINDS GOING OVER ALBANY
COUNTY. 850MB WINS STAY UP ALL NIGHT AS WELL OUT OVER THE
PANHANDLE WITH 20 TO 25KTS FORECAST ON THE GFS. THIS SHOULD KEEP
OVERNIGHT HUMIDITIES FROM RECOVERING VERY WELL...SO WE WILL START
OFF THURSDAY PRETTY WARM AND DRY.

LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD MIX
WELL DURING THE AFTERNOON...REACHING POSSIBLY 600MBS WHERE WINDS
ARE FORECAST AT 35KTS ON THE USUALLY WEAKER NAM. THIS SHOULD BE
EASILY ENOUGH WINDS TO CREATE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE
PANHANDLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS 700MB TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM AS
WELL...WARMING FROM -4C THIS AFTERNOON...UP TO +2C TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...SO WE SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER OVER TODAYS HIGHS.

WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE CWFA. GFS FORECASTING 700MB TEMPERATURES OF +4C OVER SOUTHERN
WYOMING. SO AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE WITH UPPER 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 412 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE
LONG TERM. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
AND DESERT SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...AND LOOKS TO BECOME A STACKED
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ALONG WITH
STRONG PVA. THE LEESIDE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ON SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH A SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY. LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON FOR THIS AREA...WHICH INCLUDES NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLE AND EAST CENTRAL WYOMING. WITH THE ENERGETIC FLOW MOVING
OVERHEAD...WILL ALSO SEE ACTIVITY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. AREAS EAST OF THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE MAY LACK
OVERALL MOISTURE AND SFC FORCING TO SUPPORT TSTORMS UNTIL THE SFC
LOW WRAPS UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS SHOW THE SFC
LOW SLOW TO MOVE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO EXPECT CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS FOR THE NEBRASKA ZONES WHICH MAY STILL BE IN
THE WARM SECTOR AT THIS TIME. FURTHER WEST...WILL BEGIN TO SEE
MORE OF STEADY RAIN WITH SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRES THROUGH THE DAY. AS CAA INCREASES BEHIND
THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM THROUGH THE EVENING...WILL LIKELY SEE A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS
WELL. MAY NOT SEE SNOW IN THE PANHANDLE UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.
TIMING OF THIS CHANGEOVER WILL BE VERY TRICKY THO AS THE ORIGIN OF
THE COLD AIR LOOKS TO BE HIGHLY MODIFIED AIRMASS FROM THE PACIFIC
AND CONTINENTAL US...SO MAY NOT BE ALL THAT COLD IN GENERAL.
REGARDLESS...STRONG SFC AND MIDLEVEL FORCING WILL KEEP QPF ON THE
HIGHER END...WITH MODELS PRODUCING A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF QPF
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
SYSTEM WILL TREK TOWARD THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY...WITH WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE AND ENERGETIC NORTHWEST FLOW MAINTAINING CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY THROUGH
THIS TIME AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM DEPARTS. TUESDAY WILL SEE CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...BUT LESS MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR RAIN AND SNOW.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL FALL FROM THE 60S AND 70S ON SATURDAY...TO THE
40S AND 50S THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 614 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH A FAIRLY THICK MID-LEVEL CLOUD
CANOPY FOR AIRFIELDS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS EVENING. ALSO
WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH AROUND
02-03Z. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS DECREASE SOME OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING AS WELL. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN MOST TERMINALS
AFTER 14-15Z THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 412 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THURSDAY AS DOWNSLOPING WINDS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THE LOWER LAYERS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE. LOOKING AT MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES OF 10
TO 13 PERCENT WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH...ESPECIALLY FOR FIRE
ZONES 312 AND 313. WILL BE ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THESE ZONES. LOW PRESSURE CAUSING THESE
WINDS OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING
EAST. NEXT CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS WILL BE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO UTAH AND TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO. EVERYONE
SHOULD SEE ACCUMULATING RAINS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS THIS SLOW MOVING LOW MOVES NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NEZ312-313.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...HAHN
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB










000
FXUS63 KUNR 232356
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
556 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL LET
WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL US...WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES ARE GRADUALLY
CLEARING AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES CLOUDS EASTWARD. SURFACE TROUGH SITS
OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MAKING ITS
WAY THROUGH THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE TAKEN A LITTLE LONGER
THAN EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY...BUT HAVE FINALLY PICKED UP THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
SD.

THE UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE UPPER LOW AND MOST OF THE ENERGY
NORTH OF OUR CWA. MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST
OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT ACROSS WESTERN
SD BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER WY/CO AND THE EXITING TROUGH.
NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AGAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE TONED SPEEDS
DOWN. MAV IS SHOWING BARELY WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...WITH THE MET UNDER CRITERIA. AT THIS POINT DO NOT THINK
A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY...BUT LATER SHIFTS CAN REANALYZE.
DECREASED WINDS IN THE GRIDS...ALTHOUGH THEY STILL MIGHT BE A LITTLE
TOO STRONG.

UPPER RIDGING WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING DRIER
AIR AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 60S...50S IN THE HILLS. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY BRINGING MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONG UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH COOLER AIR NOW FILTERING IN SUNDAY. WDSPRD PCPN IS
STILL PROGGED TO BEGIN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS
SHOW UPPER LOW CROSSING THE COLORADO AREA SUNDAY...THEN SLOWLY CROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SO NOT MUCH ACCESS TO A COLDER AIRMASS WILL LIKELY KEEP
PRECIP AS RAIN INSTEAD OF SNOW...EXCEPT MAYBE DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BLACK HILLS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SNOW. ECMWF/GFS AGREE
WITH LIQUID QPF AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 554 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING...AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ263>266.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...7
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...7






000
FXUS63 KUNR 232356
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
556 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL LET
WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL US...WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES ARE GRADUALLY
CLEARING AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES CLOUDS EASTWARD. SURFACE TROUGH SITS
OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MAKING ITS
WAY THROUGH THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE TAKEN A LITTLE LONGER
THAN EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY...BUT HAVE FINALLY PICKED UP THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
SD.

THE UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE UPPER LOW AND MOST OF THE ENERGY
NORTH OF OUR CWA. MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST
OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT ACROSS WESTERN
SD BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER WY/CO AND THE EXITING TROUGH.
NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AGAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE TONED SPEEDS
DOWN. MAV IS SHOWING BARELY WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...WITH THE MET UNDER CRITERIA. AT THIS POINT DO NOT THINK
A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY...BUT LATER SHIFTS CAN REANALYZE.
DECREASED WINDS IN THE GRIDS...ALTHOUGH THEY STILL MIGHT BE A LITTLE
TOO STRONG.

UPPER RIDGING WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING DRIER
AIR AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 60S...50S IN THE HILLS. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY BRINGING MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONG UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH COOLER AIR NOW FILTERING IN SUNDAY. WDSPRD PCPN IS
STILL PROGGED TO BEGIN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS
SHOW UPPER LOW CROSSING THE COLORADO AREA SUNDAY...THEN SLOWLY CROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SO NOT MUCH ACCESS TO A COLDER AIRMASS WILL LIKELY KEEP
PRECIP AS RAIN INSTEAD OF SNOW...EXCEPT MAYBE DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BLACK HILLS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SNOW. ECMWF/GFS AGREE
WITH LIQUID QPF AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 554 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING...AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ263>266.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...7
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...7







000
FXUS65 KCYS 232212
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
412 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM DEAL WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. PLEASE SEE FIRE DISCUSSION BELOW.

CURRENTLY...COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON. STILL SEEING SOME PRETTY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH REPORTS IN THE PANHANDLE STILL SHOWING WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 42MPH AT THE SCOTTSBLUFF AND AGATE RAWS SITES.
SIDNEY HAS JUST RECENTLY BEGUN TO GET REALLY CLOSE TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA OUT THERE...SO WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY GOING THIS
AFTERNOON. IT MAY BE POSSIBLE TO CANCEL EARLY AS LATEST IR IMAGERY
SHOWING DENSE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER
THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE...SPREADING EAST.

WINDS WILL EASE SOME TONIGHT...THOUGH WOULD EXPECT OUR WIND PRONE
AREAS TO CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE ELEVATED WINDS. GFS 700MB WINDS
REMAIN STRONG TONIGHT...KEEPING 40+MPH WINDS GOING OVER ALBANY
COUNTY. 850MB WINS STAY UP ALL NIGHT AS WELL OUT OVER THE
PANHANDLE WITH 20 TO 25KTS FORECAST ON THE GFS. THIS SHOULD KEEP
OVERNIGHT HUMIDITIES FROM RECOVERING VERY WELL...SO WE WILL START
OFF THURSDAY PRETTY WARM AND DRY.

LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD MIX
WELL DURING THE AFTERNOON...REACHING POSSIBLY 600MBS WHERE WINDS
ARE FORECAST AT 35KTS ON THE USUALLY WEAKER NAM. THIS SHOULD BE
EASILY ENOUGH WINDS TO CREATE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE
PANHANDLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS 700MB TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM AS
WELL...WARMING FROM -4C THIS AFTERNOON...UP TO +2C TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...SO WE SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER OVER TODAYS HIGHS.

WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE CWFA. GFS FORECASTING 700MB TEMPERATURES OF +4C OVER SOUTHERN
WYOMING. SO AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE WITH UPPER 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 412 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE
LONG TERM. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
AND DESERT SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...AND LOOKS TO BECOME A STACKED
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ALONG WITH
STRONG PVA. THE LEESIDE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ON SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH A SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY. LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON FOR THIS AREA...WHICH INCLUDES NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLE AND EAST CENTRAL WYOMING. WITH THE ENERGETIC FLOW MOVING
OVERHEAD...WILL ALSO SEE ACTIVITY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. AREAS EAST OF THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE MAY LACK
OVERALL MOISTURE AND SFC FORCING TO SUPPORT TSTORMS UNTIL THE SFC
LOW WRAPS UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS SHOW THE SFC
LOW SLOW TO MOVE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO EXPECT CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS FOR THE NEBRASKA ZONES WHICH MAY STILL BE IN
THE WARM SECTOR AT THIS TIME. FURTHER WEST...WILL BEGIN TO SEE
MORE OF STEADY RAIN WITH SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRES THROUGH THE DAY. AS CAA INCREASES BEHIND
THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM THROUGH THE EVENING...WILL LIKELY SEE A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS
WELL. MAY NOT SEE SNOW IN THE PANHANDLE UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.
TIMING OF THIS CHANGEOVER WILL BE VERY TRICKY THO AS THE ORIGIN OF
THE COLD AIR LOOKS TO BE HIGHLY MODIFIED AIRMASS FROM THE PACIFIC
AND CONTINENTAL US...SO MAY NOT BE ALL THAT COLD IN GENERAL.
REGARDLESS...STRONG SFC AND MIDLEVEL FORCING WILL KEEP QPF ON THE
HIGHER END...WITH MODELS PRODUCING A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF QPF
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
SYSTEM WILL TREK TOWARD THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY...WITH WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE AND ENERGETIC NORTHWEST FLOW MAINTAINING CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY THROUGH
THIS TIME AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM DEPARTS. TUESDAY WILL SEE CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...BUT LESS MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR RAIN AND SNOW.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL FALL FROM THE 60S AND 70S ON SATURDAY...TO THE
40S AND 50S THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KTS EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND 30 TO 40 KTS FOR THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL EASE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING BUT WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AFTER 14Z THURSDAY. GUSTS WILL BE LESS ON
THURSDAY...WITH SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 KTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 412 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THURSDAY AS DOWNSLOPING WINDS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THE LOWER LAYERS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE. LOOKING AT MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES OF 10
TO 13 PERCENT WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH...ESPECIALLY FOR FIRE
ZONES 312 AND 313. WILL BE ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THESE ZONES. LOW PRESSURE CAUSING THESE
WINDS OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING
EAST. NEXT CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS WILL BE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO UTAH AND TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO. EVERYONE
SHOULD SEE ACCUMULATING RAINS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS THIS SLOW MOVING LOW MOVES NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ019>021-054-055-
     095-096.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NEZ312-313.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB









000
FXUS63 KUNR 232045
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
245 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL US...WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES ARE GRADUALLY
CLEARING AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES CLOUDS EASTWARD. SURFACE TROUGH SITS
OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MAKING ITS
WAY THROUGH THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE TAKEN A LITTLE LONGER
THAN EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY...BUT HAVE FINALLY PICKED UP THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
SD.

THE UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE UPPER LOW AND MOST OF THE ENERGY
NORTH OF OUR CWA. MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST
OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT ACROSS WESTERN
SD BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER WY/CO AND THE EXITING TROUGH.
NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AGAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE TONED SPEEDS
DOWN. MAV IS SHOWING BARELY WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...WITH THE MET UNDER CRITERIA. AT THIS POINT DO NOT THINK
A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY...BUT LATER SHIFTS CAN REANALYZE.
DECREASED WINDS IN THE GRIDS...ALTHOUGH THEY STILL MIGHT BE A LITTLE
TOO STRONG.

UPPER RIDGING WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING DRIER
AIR AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 60S...50S IN THE HILLS. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY BRINGING MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONG UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH COOLER AIR NOW FILTERING IN SUNDAY. WDSPRD PCPN IS
STILL PROGGED TO BEGIN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS
SHOW UPPER LOW CROSSING THE COLORADO AREA SUNDAY...THEN SLOWLY CROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SO NOT MUCH ACCESS TO A COLDER AIRMASS WILL LIKELY KEEP
PRECIP AS RAIN INSTEAD OF SNOW...EXCEPT MAYBE DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BLACK HILLS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SNOW. ECMWF/GFS AGREE
WITH LIQUID QPF AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

MVFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL BECOME VFR TOWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING...BUT THEN BECOME GUSTY AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS AND DRIER AIR TO THE AREA THURSDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO
25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...A DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DROP TO
15 TO 20 PERCENT...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 263-266 COVERING THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS.

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ263>266.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-
     026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...13








000
FXUS63 KUNR 232045
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
245 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL US...WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES ARE GRADUALLY
CLEARING AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES CLOUDS EASTWARD. SURFACE TROUGH SITS
OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MAKING ITS
WAY THROUGH THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE TAKEN A LITTLE LONGER
THAN EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY...BUT HAVE FINALLY PICKED UP THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
SD.

THE UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE UPPER LOW AND MOST OF THE ENERGY
NORTH OF OUR CWA. MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST
OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT ACROSS WESTERN
SD BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER WY/CO AND THE EXITING TROUGH.
NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AGAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE TONED SPEEDS
DOWN. MAV IS SHOWING BARELY WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...WITH THE MET UNDER CRITERIA. AT THIS POINT DO NOT THINK
A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY...BUT LATER SHIFTS CAN REANALYZE.
DECREASED WINDS IN THE GRIDS...ALTHOUGH THEY STILL MIGHT BE A LITTLE
TOO STRONG.

UPPER RIDGING WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING DRIER
AIR AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 60S...50S IN THE HILLS. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY BRINGING MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONG UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH COOLER AIR NOW FILTERING IN SUNDAY. WDSPRD PCPN IS
STILL PROGGED TO BEGIN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS
SHOW UPPER LOW CROSSING THE COLORADO AREA SUNDAY...THEN SLOWLY CROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SO NOT MUCH ACCESS TO A COLDER AIRMASS WILL LIKELY KEEP
PRECIP AS RAIN INSTEAD OF SNOW...EXCEPT MAYBE DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BLACK HILLS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SNOW. ECMWF/GFS AGREE
WITH LIQUID QPF AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

MVFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL BECOME VFR TOWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING...BUT THEN BECOME GUSTY AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS AND DRIER AIR TO THE AREA THURSDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO
25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...A DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DROP TO
15 TO 20 PERCENT...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 263-266 COVERING THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS.

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ263>266.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-
     026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...13







000
FXUS65 KRIW 232029
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
230 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

SAT IMAGERY SHOWS TROF CUTTING FROM N TO S OVR CNTRL WY...THEN OFF
TO THE CONUS SW. UPSTREAM...SMALL FAST MOVING SW THAT WILL AFFECT
OUR WRN MOUNTAINS TOMORROW...LOCATED BASE OF BROAD TROF WSW OF
OREGON NEAR 140W. SFC SHOWS N/S ORIENTED TROF/FRONT TO OUR W THRU
THE DAKOTAS AND WRN NE...ANCHORED IN E CNTRL CO. HIGH P LOCATED W
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.

THRU THE PERIOD...UPR TROF CURRENT IN PLACE OVERHEAD EXITS STAGE
EAST W/ RIDGING PROCEEDING FROM W TO E. GENERALLY...HIGH P WILL
BUILD IN W/ THE RIDGING W/ CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT MOST AREAS AND
DECREASING PRECIP CHCS WRN MOUNTAINS. LOWS DROPPING 5 TO 10 DEG OVR
THOSE THIS MORNING...WITH HIGHS WARMING SOME 10 +/- DEG THU AS H7
TEMPS ALSO RISE 4 TO 6 DEG C. THE SMALL FAST SW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL
CRUISE INTO AND THRU THE BUILDING RIDGE...ARRIVING IN OUR WRN ZONES
BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME MODEST MOISTURE FROM THE
EPAC. TERRAIN OROGRAPHICS WILL LARGELY DRIVE PRECIP ODE EARLY...WITH
SOME HELP THRU CONVECTIVE MODE IN THE AFTERNOON. NO HIGHLIGHTS WITH
THIS ACTIVITY EXCEPTED AS MOSTLY LOW END QPF SHOULD ONLY ACCUMULATE
AN INCH OR TWO AT BEST IN PREFERRED LOCATIONS AT HIGH ELEVATION.
OTHERWISE...WHILE SFC AND MID LVL T AND P PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
GUSTY W TO SW WINDS...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WARNING TYPE
SITUATION...ALTHOUGH WILL CERTAINLY BE WORTH MONITORING THE CODY
FOOTHILLS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. CURRENT
SPS REFLECTS THIS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

FLAT RIDGE MOVES OVER AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD BEFORE THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF OUR
SIGNIFICANT WEEKEND TROUGH. THE FIRST WEAK WAVE AND SOME ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE IS WORTHY OF SOME LOWER POPS IN THE FAR WEST...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EVENING. ON FRIDAY...THE FLOW BEGINS TO BACK AHEAD OF OUR TROUGH
WHICH WILL BE NEARING THE WEST COAST. ANOTHER POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE WEST...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH SNOW ABOVE 8500 FEET OR SO. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT EAST OF THE DIVIDE AS THIS WAVE LIFTS NE
ACROSS THE AREA BUT NOT COUNTING ON MUCH...ESPECIALLY LATER FRIDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SO LOWERED POPS EAST OF THE DIVIDE. EVEN INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SW...NOT
TOO EXCITED ABOUT POPS EAST OF THE DIVIDE. OUT WEST...YES. AS THE
DAY WEARS ON...HOWEVER...WE COULD SEE A SHORTWAVE LIFT NWD AND
COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY TO BREAK OUT MORE SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTH FOR SURE AND PROBABLY IN AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST
OF THE DIVIDE AND POSSIBLY ANYWHERE. THE WEST WILL REMAIN WET WITH
SNOW LEVELS OF 8000 FEET OR SO DEPENDING ON EXACT LOCATION OF THE
UPPER LOW. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
SYSTEM THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AND IS THUS WARMER WITH LESS OF A
CHANCE OF ANYTHING MAKING IT IN CENTRAL WYO. ONE CAVEAT TO THAT
WOULD BE POTENTIAL NRN SFC FRONT SAGGING INTO THE FAR NORTH BRINGING
SOME LOWER CLOUDS...LIGHT OVERRUNNING PCPN. MOST WILL LIKELY REMAIN
NORTH IN MT BUT WORTH MONITORING. MODELS ARE DIVERGING MORE TODAY AS
TO WHERE THIS SYSTEM WILL SET UP ONCE IT MOVES EAST OF THE DIVIDE
AND HOW SLOW IT WILL MOVE E OR NE. H7 TEMPS ARE IN THE -2 TO -4C
RANGE ON SUNDAY ON THE GFS AND EVEN WARMER ON THE ECMWF AND GEM.
MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY BE RAIN WITH THE FOOTHILLS
AND FAR NRN PORTIONS ABOVE 5K FEET OR SO HAVING A BETTER SHOT OF AT
LEAST A MIXTURE IF NOT A CHANGEOVER SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL SOLUTIONS
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK HAVE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THE ECMWF
SHOWING MORE RETROGRESSION AND HIGH OVER LOW PATTERN LEADING TO A
SLOWER MOVEMENT AND HIGHER CHANCES OF PCPN LINGERING EAST OF THE
DIVIDE INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GFS HAS THE RIDGE NOSING IN LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ALREADY. SO FAR THIS WINTER AND SPRING...A FASTER
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION HAS BEEN THE WAY TO GO AND THUS THE MODEL BLEND
WHICH IS FASTER WAS GENERALLY FOLLOWED. WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO
WATCH THIS SYTEM THOUGH AS IT SHOULD HAVE HIGH IMPACT ALONG ITS PATH.


&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KJAC/KPNA/KBPI/KRKS ROUTES

VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE 18Z THURSDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME...ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WITH SOME MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 05Z...THEN AGAIN AFTER
15Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUD
COVER...ALONG WITH RAIN/SNOW AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGINNING BY
18Z THURSDAY NEAR KJAC....WITH IFR CONDITIONS BEING REPLACED IN THE
AFTERNOON BY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. FOR KBPI KPNA AND KRKS...WHILE
COULD WILL INCREASE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
STILL BE THE RULE RATHER THAN THE EXCEPTION.

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCPR/KCOD/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER..ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR NEAR AND NORTH OF KBYG...WITH SOME RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS  OVER THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS THROUGH 03Z TONIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF THROUGH 03Z IN/NEAR MOST TERMINALS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER BREEZY...AND CONTINUE MOSTLY DRY EAST OF THE
DIVIDE WITH MIN RH`S IN THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH 40 TO 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...RAIN SHOWERS
WILL RETURN TO THE WEST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A QUICK MOVING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MAINLY WARM AND
DRY AGAIN ON FRIDAY EAST OF THE DIVIDE...WITH A LITTLE LESS WIND.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE WEST ONCE
AGAIN...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE AT LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE
BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WEEKEND WILL COOL BACK OFF QUITE A BIT AS
YET ANOTHER SPRING SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...WITH EVERYONE GETTING SOME
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...ALONG WITH INCREASED WINDS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...BRAUN
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN









000
FXUS65 KRIW 232012
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
212 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

SAT IMAGERY SHOWS TROF CUTTING FROM N TO S OVR CNTRL WY...THEN OFF TO
THE CONUS SW. UPSTREAM...SMALL FAST MOVING SW THAT WILL AFFECT OUR
WRN MOUNTAINS TOMORROW...LOCATED BASE OF BROAD TROF WSW OF OREGON
NEAR 140W. SFC SHOWS N/S ORIENTED TROF/FRONT TO OUR W THRU THE
DAKOTAS AND WRN NE...ANCHORED IN E CNTRL CO. HIGH P LOCATED W ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN.

THRU THE PERIOD...UPR TROF CURRENT IN LACE OVERHEAD EXITS STAGE EAST
W/ RIDGING PROCEEDING FROM W TO E. GENERALLY...HIGH P WILL BUILD IN
W/ THE RIDGING W/ CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT MOST AREAS AND DECREASING
PRECIP CHCS WRN MOUNTAINS. LOWS DROPPING 5 TO 10 DEG OVR THOSE THIS
MORNING...WITH HIGHS WARMING SOME 10 +/- DEG THU AS H7 TEMPS ALSO
RISE 4 TO 6 DEG C. THE SMALL FAST SW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL CRUISE
INTO AND THRU THE BUILDING RIDGE...ARRIVING IN OUR WRN ZONES BY
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME MODEST MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC.
TERRAIN OROGRAPHICS WILL LARGELY DRIVE PRECIP ODE EARLY...WITH SOME
HELP THRU CONVECTIVE MODE IN THE AFTERNOON. NO HIGHLIGHTS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY EXCEPTED AS MOSTLY LOW END QPF SHOULD ONLY ACCUMULATE AN
INCH OR TWO AT BEST IN PREFERRED LOCATIONS AT HIGH ELEVATION.
OTHERWISE...WHILE SFC AND MID LVL T AND P PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
GUSTY W TO SW WINDS...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WARNING TYPE
SITUATION...ALTHOUGH WILL CERTAINLY BE WORTH MONITORING THE CODY
FOOTHILLS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. CURRENT SPS
REFLECTS THIS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

FLAT RIDGE MOVES OVER AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD BEFORE THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF OUR
SIGNIFICANT WEEKEND TROUGH. THE FIRST WEAK WAVE AND SOME ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE IS WORTHY OF SOME LOWER POPS IN THE FAR WEST...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EVENING. ON FRIDAY...THE FLOW BEGINS TO BACK AHEAD OF OUR TROUGH
WHICH WILL BE NEARING THE WEST COAST. ANOTHER POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE WEST...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH SNOW ABOVE 8500 FEET OR SO. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT EAST OF THE DIVIDE AS THIS WAVE LIFTS NE
ACROSS THE AREA BUT NOT COUNTING ON MUCH...ESPECIALLY LATER FRIDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SO LOWERED POPS EAST OF THE DIVIDE. EVEN INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SW...NOT
TOO EXCITED ABOUT POPS EAST OF THE DIVIDE. OUT WEST...YES. AS THE
DAY WEARS ON...HOWEVER...WE COULD SEE A SHORTWAVE LIFT NWD AND
COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY TO BREAK OUT MORE SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTH FOR SURE AND PROBABLY IN AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST
OF THE DIVIDE AND POSSIBLY ANYWHERE. THE WEST WILL REMAIN WET WITH
SNOW LEVELS OF 8000 FEET OR SO DEPENDING ON EXACT LOCATION OF THE
UPPER LOW. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
SYSTEM THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AND IS THUS WARMER WITH LESS OF A
CHANCE OF ANYTHING MAKING IT IN CENTRAL WYO. ONE CAVEAT TO THAT
WOULD BE POTENTIAL NRN SFC FRONT SAGGING INTO THE FAR NORTH BRINGING
SOME LOWER CLOUDS...LIGHT OVERRUNNING PCPN. MOST WILL LIKELY REMAIN
NORTH IN MT BUT WORTH MONITORING. MODELS ARE DIVERGING MORE TODAY AS
TO WHERE THIS SYSTEM WILL SET UP ONCE IT MOVES EAST OF THE DIVIDE
AND HOW SLOW IT WILL MOVE E OR NE. H7 TEMPS ARE IN THE -2 TO -4C
RANGE ON SUNDAY ON THE GFS AND EVEN WARMER ON THE ECMWF AND GEM. MOST
OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY BE RAIN WITH THE FOOTHILLS AND
FAR NRN PORTIONS ABOVE 5K FEET OR SO HAVING A BETTER SHOT OF AT
LEAST A MIXTURE IF NOT A CHANGEOVER SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL SOLUTIONS
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK HAVE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THE ECMWF
SHOWING MORE RETROGRESSION AND HIGH OVER LOW PATTERN LEADING TO A
SLOWER MOVEMENT AND HIGHER CHANCES OF PCPN LINGERING EAST OF THE
DIVIDE INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GFS HAS THE RIDGE NOSING IN LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ALREADY. SO FAR THIS WINTER AND SPRING...A FASTER
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION HAS BEEN THE WAY TO GO AND THUS THE MODEL BLEND
WHICH IS FASTER WAS GENERALLY FOLLOWED. WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO
WATCH THIS SYTEM THOUGH AS IT SHOULD HAVE HIGH IMPACT ALONG ITS PATH.


&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KJAC/KPNA/KBPI/KRKS ROUTES

VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE 18Z THURSDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME...ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
WITH SOME MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 05Z...THEN AGAIN AFTER 15Z
THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUD COVER...ALONG
WITH RAIN/SNOW AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGINNING BY 18Z THURSDAY
NEAR KJAC....WITH IFR CONDITIONS BEING REPLACED IN THE AFTERNOON BY
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. FOR KBPI KPNA AND KRKS...WHILE COULD WILL
INCREASE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL BE THE
RULE RATHER THAN THE EXCEPTION.

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCPR/KCOD/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER..ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR NEAR AND NORTH OF KBYG...WITH SOME RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS  OVER THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS THROUGH 03Z TONIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF THROUGH 03Z IN/NEAR MOST TERMINALS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER BREEZY...AND CONTINUE MOSTLY DRY EAST OF THE
DIVIDE WITH MIN RH`S IN THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH 40 TO 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...RAIN SHOWERS
WILL RETURN TO THE WEST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A QUICK MOVING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MAINLY WARM AND
DRY AGAIN ON FRIDAY EAST OF THE DIVIDE...WITH A LITTLE LESS WIND.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE WEST ONCE
AGAIN...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE AT LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE
BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WEEKEND WILL COOL BACK OFF QUITE A BIT AS
YET ANOTHER SPRING SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...WITH EVERYONE GETTING SOME
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...ALONG WITH INCREASED WINDS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...BRAUN
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN






000
FXUS63 KUNR 231759
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1159 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. WINDS ARE
STARTING TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST
WYOMING...AND STILL EXPECT THEM TO BECOME WINDY THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE CWA...WITH
SOME CLEARING SKIES WORKING INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING. RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH WEST AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
TWEAKED POPS AND SKY GRIDS...BUT REST OF FORECAST LOOKS FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST
MT...WITH COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR NORTHEAST WY ZONES. WARM
FRONT STRETCHES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN SD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS TROF MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST BC. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION
IS BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS...WITH REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM
EARLIER OVER CENTRAL SD NOW. TEMPS ARE VERY MILD THIS
MORNING...WITH 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. A STRONG
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET IS CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND
NEB...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS NEAR AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
PERKINS TO SHANNON COUNTIES.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UPPER LOW REMAINING WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA...AS IT MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP US ON THE DRIER AND WINDY SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT TO THE
WEST PUSHES THROUGH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS EACH DAY. A WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THIS AREA TODAY AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR THE SAME AREAS TOMORROW AS WELL. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST WY AND
WESTERN SD THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL SD EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CHANCES FOR ANY THUNDER WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA LATE TODAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
THOSE AREAS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S OVER NORTHEAST WY
AND THE BLACK HILLS...TO THE 70S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY THIS EVENING AND FAR NORTHWEST SD EARLY THURSDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM CLIPS THESE
AREAS. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THURSDAY WILL BE A WINDY DAY AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF SECONDARY LOW THAT
PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY. MILD
AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...50S OVER
THE BLACK HILLS. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL BE PLACE ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY BRINGING MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONG UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE NRN
PLAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH WDSPRD PCPN WORKING INTO THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. LATEST 00Z RUNS
OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE NOW SHIFTING THE MAIN UPPER LOW FURTHER
SOUTH...WITH THE CONSENSUS TAKING THE LOW ACROSS KANSAS. UNDER THIS
SCENARIO...TEMP PROFILES WOULD NOT BE QUITE AS COLD FOR OUR AREA AND
WOULD RESULT IN MORE OF A RAIN EVENT VERSUS SNOW. HOWEVER...SHOULD
THE MODELS TREND BACK FURTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER LOW THEN SNOW
CHANCES WOULD INCREASE. STAY TUNED AS MODEL SHIFTS ARE LIKELY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTN. A FEW HIGH
BASED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY BRINGING LCL MVFR
VSBYS...BUT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-
     026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...13







000
FXUS63 KUNR 231759
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1159 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. WINDS ARE
STARTING TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST
WYOMING...AND STILL EXPECT THEM TO BECOME WINDY THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE CWA...WITH
SOME CLEARING SKIES WORKING INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING. RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH WEST AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
TWEAKED POPS AND SKY GRIDS...BUT REST OF FORECAST LOOKS FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST
MT...WITH COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR NORTHEAST WY ZONES. WARM
FRONT STRETCHES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN SD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS TROF MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST BC. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION
IS BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS...WITH REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM
EARLIER OVER CENTRAL SD NOW. TEMPS ARE VERY MILD THIS
MORNING...WITH 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. A STRONG
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET IS CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND
NEB...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS NEAR AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
PERKINS TO SHANNON COUNTIES.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UPPER LOW REMAINING WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA...AS IT MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP US ON THE DRIER AND WINDY SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT TO THE
WEST PUSHES THROUGH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS EACH DAY. A WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THIS AREA TODAY AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR THE SAME AREAS TOMORROW AS WELL. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST WY AND
WESTERN SD THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL SD EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CHANCES FOR ANY THUNDER WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA LATE TODAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
THOSE AREAS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S OVER NORTHEAST WY
AND THE BLACK HILLS...TO THE 70S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY THIS EVENING AND FAR NORTHWEST SD EARLY THURSDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM CLIPS THESE
AREAS. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THURSDAY WILL BE A WINDY DAY AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF SECONDARY LOW THAT
PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY. MILD
AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...50S OVER
THE BLACK HILLS. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL BE PLACE ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY BRINGING MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONG UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE NRN
PLAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH WDSPRD PCPN WORKING INTO THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. LATEST 00Z RUNS
OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE NOW SHIFTING THE MAIN UPPER LOW FURTHER
SOUTH...WITH THE CONSENSUS TAKING THE LOW ACROSS KANSAS. UNDER THIS
SCENARIO...TEMP PROFILES WOULD NOT BE QUITE AS COLD FOR OUR AREA AND
WOULD RESULT IN MORE OF A RAIN EVENT VERSUS SNOW. HOWEVER...SHOULD
THE MODELS TREND BACK FURTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER LOW THEN SNOW
CHANCES WOULD INCREASE. STAY TUNED AS MODEL SHIFTS ARE LIKELY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTN. A FEW HIGH
BASED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY BRINGING LCL MVFR
VSBYS...BUT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-
     026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...13






000
FXUS65 KCYS 231756
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1156 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

SEEING WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA AT VARIOUS LOCATIONS
OUT IN THE PANHANDLE LATE THIS MORNING. WITH THE UPPER CLOUDINESS
MOVING EAST...SHOULD SEE DEEPER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD
WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH 6PM THIS
AFTERNOON. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

WINDY AND DRY DAYS WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING
ACROSS WESTERN WY. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN
CARBON COUNTY WITH WIND GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH. COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY ACROSS CARBON COUNTY TOO. THE MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
MORNING. WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF EXCELLENT MIXING AND QG SUBSIDENCE. THE
850MB CAG-CPR GRADIENT INCREASES TO AROUND 50 METERS BY 18Z AND
WITH 1 KM AGL WIND OF 40-45 KTS...COULD SEE A FEW GUST APPROACHING
50 MPH DURING THE AFTN. FURTHER EAST INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
GUSTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 40 KTS. WITH GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER
FROM ALOFT...WILL SEE DEWPOINTS FALL SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE AFTN.
LOWERED DEWPOINTS IN THE GRIDS AND NOW GETTING MIN RH VALUES OF
20-25 PERCENT. SINCE SPC HAS THE PANHANDLE IN AN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER THREAT THIS AFTN...MADE A MENTION OF THIS IN THE FWF.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SLIM TODAY WITH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
LACK OF SFC INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER
TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THURS
MORNING WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA. WINDS WILL
DECREASE TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING...ONLY TO RAMP UP
AGAIN BY LATE THURS MORNING. DO NOT BELIEVE THAT WINDS WILL BE
QUITE AS STRONG DURING THE DAY ON THURS...HOWEVER GUSTS TO 35-40
KTS WILL STILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY. RH
VALUES DROP TO 15-20 PERCENT OVER THE PANHANDLE SO ANOTHER ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED. SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD ON
FRI WITH SFC WINDS BECOMING SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST AS PRESSURE FALLS
OCCUR TO THE WEST OF THE REGION. LI VALUES AROUND 0C WILL PROMOTE
A BETTER COVERAGE OF AFTN CUMULUS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT...FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. STILL
RELATIVELY MILD IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF RAWLINS LATE.

SATURDAY...NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES TO THE
FOUR CORNERS BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH OUR COUNTIES IN THE WARM SECTOR.
LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOST NUMEROUS ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH
AND CONVERGENCE AXIS FROM CASPER TO LARAMIE.

SUNDAY...MODELS SIMILAR IN DEPICTING THE STRONG CLOSED UPPER TROUGH
MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
MODELS SHOW COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF QPF...WHICH SEEMS PLAUSIBLE...WITH
INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
MOISTURE LADEN STORM SYSTEM. PROGGED THICKNESSES SUGGEST MOSTLY RAIN
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. IN ANY EVENT...IT
WILL BE BLUSTERY AND COOL WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS.

MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD...THOUGH STILL
WRAPAROUND SHOWERS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
WHERE UPSLOPE WILL AID LIFT. COOL AND BLUSTERY BASED ON PROGGED
THICKNESSES.

TUESDAY...DRYING OUT PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES FAR ENOUGH
EAST OF OUR COUNTIES...THOUGH COOL NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL RETARD AND
LIMIT WARMING TREND. CONTINUED BREEZY TO WINDY PER PROGGED LOW AND
MID LEVEL GRADIENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KTS EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND 30 TO 40 KTS FOR THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL EASE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING BUT WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AFTER 14Z THURSDAY. GUSTS WILL BE LESS ON
THURSDAY...WITH SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 KTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH WINDY
AND DRY CONDITIONS BEHIND IT. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE 20 TO 25 PERCENT AND WEST WIND GUSTS WILL
REACH 35 TO 40 MPH. CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 20
PERCENT. AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS THUS WARRANTED OVER
THE NEXT TWO AFTERNOONS ACROSS THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
WHERE FUELS ARE STILL DRY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FIRE GROWTH.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ019>021-054-055-
     095-096.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CLAYCOMB
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH







000
FXUS65 KRIW 231723
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1124 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

A STRONGLY FORCED COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SWEEPING EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY IN THE MORNING. THE MAIN TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
EARLY WITH SOME DECENT QG FORCING REMAINING A PLAYER...POPS WERE
KEPT BROAD ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LINGERING UPPER LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH THE TROUGH...IN ADDITION TO
THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE SURFACE LOW IS
PRETTY FAR NORTH AND FLOW REMAINS WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY...WHICH IS
MOST FAVORABLE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND NORTHERN BIGHORN BASIN
BUT POPS WERE KEPT BROAD FOR THE MORNING. IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
COOLER TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS...DECREASING TO SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR
THE FOOTHILLS AND MORE ISOLATED OUT IN THE BASINS AND SOUTH. SOME
MEASURABLE SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE TODAY IN THE WRN MOUNTAINS AND
BIGHORNS...BUT THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL CEASE
EARLY THIS MORNING.

WIND WILL BE QUITE STRONG AGAIN TODAY IN THE SINKING MOTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE. ANOTHER WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SEPARATE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JOGGING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL
GRAZE THE NORTHERN ZONES EARLY ON THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS...BIGHORNS AND
NORTHERN BIGHORN BASIN. FLAT RIDGING BUILDS IN QUICKLY BEHIND THIS
WAVE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
HOLD FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME MOISTURE ALREADY
ARRIVING IN THE FAR WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM.

THE NEXT DIGGING TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL SEND OUT A LEADING
SHORT WAVE SET TO ARRIVE IN THE WEST EARLY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN
AND SNOW WILL BLANKET THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS BY FRIDAY
EVENING. MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
SNOW LEVELS REMAINING HIGH. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH
RAIN COULD FALL ACROSS THE WEST BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR OVER ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN SOME LOW ELEVATION AREAS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

00Z GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE MAIN ENERGY
WITH THE TROUGH IMPACTING THE ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. BY 12Z
SATURDAY...THE MAIN ENERGY/UPPER LOW WITH THE WESTERN TROUGH IS
PROGGED BY MODELS TO BE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA AREA.
THIS UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SLIDES ACROSS ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT...EMERGING ACROSS SE COLORADO/W KANSAS SUNDAY
MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...SOME WEAKER ENERGY IN THE TROUGH COULD
IMPACT THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK IS LESS
CONDUCIVE FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER TIMING OF THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST SHOT WEST OF THE DIVIDE WILL SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING...SHIFTING EAST OF THE DIVIDE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY SOME MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER
LOW...IN COMBINATION WITH SOME LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE COULD ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION OVER THE EXTREME EAST. GLOBAL MODELS...WITH THE MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK HAVE ALSO HAVE WARMED THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WITH
LOWER ELEVATIONS REMAINING MAINLY RAIN...ESPECIALLY EAST.

THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...ONLY REACHING SOME WHERE BETWEEN CENTRAL KANSAS TO SE IOWA.
PRECIPITATION DIRECTLY RELATED TO THIS UPPER LOW SHOULD END SUNDAY
EVENING. HOWEVER SOME ENERGY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON ITS BACKSIDE
COULD RESULT IN SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY.

RIDGING IS THE EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE WEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GFS FARTHER EAST WITH THE RIDGE AXIS THAN THE
ECMWF. BOTH SOLUTIONS RESULT IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER...BUT THE GFS IS
MUCH WARMER.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR NEAR AND NORTH OF KBYG UNTIL 20Z AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF TODAY IN/NEAR
MOST TERMINALS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM KWRL AND POINTS NORTH.
SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE BIGHORN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

SNOW WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 15Z. VCSH NEAR
KJAC THROUGH 21Z...THEN AGAIN AFTER 15Z THURSDAY. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE REST OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH 03Z WITH SOME
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
STRONG WINDS TURNING WEST AND A FEW SHOWERS. IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
COOLER THAN TUESDAY BUT STILL RATHER DRY EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH MIN
RH`S IN THE TEENS AND 20S. IT WILL BE WARMER ON THURSDAY AND IT WILL
REMAIN DRY AND BREEZY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
RAIN SHOWERS RETURN TO THE WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WARM...DRY AND
BREEZY AGAIN ON FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM.


&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...BRAUN
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN











000
FXUS65 KCYS 231654
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1054 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

SEEING WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA AT VARIOUS LOCATIONS
OUT IN THE PANHANDLE LATE THIS MORNING. WITH THE UPPER CLOUDINESS
MOVING EAST...SHOULD SEE DEEPER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD
WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH 6PM THIS
AFTERNOON. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

WINDY AND DRY DAYS WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING
ACROSS WESTERN WY. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN
CARBON COUNTY WITH WIND GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH. COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY ACROSS CARBON COUNTY TOO. THE MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
MORNING. WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF EXCELLENT MIXING AND QG SUBSIDENCE. THE
850MB CAG-CPR GRADIENT INCREASES TO AROUND 50 METERS BY 18Z AND
WITH 1 KM AGL WIND OF 40-45 KTS...COULD SEE A FEW GUST APPROACHING
50 MPH DURING THE AFTN. FURTHER EAST INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
GUSTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 40 KTS. WITH GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER
FROM ALOFT...WILL SEE DEWPOINTS FALL SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE AFTN.
LOWERED DEWPOINTS IN THE GRIDS AND NOW GETTING MIN RH VALUES OF
20-25 PERCENT. SINCE SPC HAS THE PANHANDLE IN AN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER THREAT THIS AFTN...MADE A MENTION OF THIS IN THE FWF.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SLIM TODAY WITH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
LACK OF SFC INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER
TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THURS
MORNING WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA. WINDS WILL
DECREASE TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING...ONLY TO RAMP UP
AGAIN BY LATE THURS MORNING. DO NOT BELIEVE THAT WINDS WILL BE
QUITE AS STRONG DURING THE DAY ON THURS...HOWEVER GUSTS TO 35-40
KTS WILL STILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY. RH
VALUES DROP TO 15-20 PERCENT OVER THE PANHANDLE SO ANOTHER ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED. SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD ON
FRI WITH SFC WINDS BECOMING SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST AS PRESSURE FALLS
OCCUR TO THE WEST OF THE REGION. LI VALUES AROUND 0C WILL PROMOTE
A BETTER COVERAGE OF AFTN CUMULUS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT...FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. STILL
RELATIVELY MILD IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF RAWLINS LATE.

SATURDAY...NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES TO THE
FOUR CORNERS BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH OUR COUNTIES IN THE WARM SECTOR.
LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOST NUMEROUS ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH
AND CONVERGENCE AXIS FROM CASPER TO LARAMIE.

SUNDAY...MODELS SIMILAR IN DEPICTING THE STRONG CLOSED UPPER TROUGH
MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
MODELS SHOW COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF QPF...WHICH SEEMS PLAUSIBLE...WITH
INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
MOISTURE LADEN STORM SYSTEM. PROGGED THICKNESSES SUGGEST MOSTLY RAIN
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. IN ANY EVENT...IT
WILL BE BLUSTERY AND COOL WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS.

MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD...THOUGH STILL
WRAPAROUND SHOWERS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
WHERE UPSLOPE WILL AID LIFT. COOL AND BLUSTERY BASED ON PROGGED
THICKNESSES.

TUESDAY...DRYING OUT PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES FAR ENOUGH
EAST OF OUR COUNTIES...THOUGH COOL NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL RETARD AND
LIMIT WARMING TREND. CONTINUED BREEZY TO WINDY PER PROGGED LOW AND
MID LEVEL GRADIENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 529 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 9000 FEET AGL.
WEST WIND 20 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS THROUGH 00Z...THEN
WINDS SUBSIDING IN THE EVENING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. LOCALIZED
MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE AND LEE EDDY EFFECTS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH WINDY
AND DRY CONDITIONS BEHIND IT. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE 20 TO 25 PERCENT AND WEST WIND GUSTS WILL
REACH 35 TO 40 MPH. CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 20
PERCENT. AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS THUS WARRANTED OVER
THE NEXT TWO AFTERNOONS ACROSS THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
WHERE FUELS ARE STILL DRY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FIRE GROWTH.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ019>021-054-055-
     095-096.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CLAYCOMB
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH







000
FXUS63 KUNR 231606
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1006 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. WINDS ARE
STARTING TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST
WYOMING...AND STILL EXPECT THEM TO BECOME WINDY THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE CWA...WITH
SOME CLEARING SKIES WORKING INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING. RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH WEST AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
TWEAKED POPS AND SKY GRIDS...BUT REST OF FORECAST LOOKS FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST
MT...WITH COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR NORTHEAST WY ZONES. WARM
FRONT STRETCHES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN SD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS TROF MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST BC. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION
IS BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS...WITH REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM
EARLIER OVER CENTRAL SD NOW. TEMPS ARE VERY MILD THIS
MORNING...WITH 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. A STRONG
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET IS CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND
NEB...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS NEAR AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
PERKINS TO SHANNON COUNTIES.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UPPER LOW REMAINING WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA...AS IT MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP US ON THE DRIER AND WINDY SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT TO THE
WEST PUSHES THROUGH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS EACH DAY. A WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THIS AREA TODAY AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR THE SAME AREAS TOMORROW AS WELL. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST WY AND
WESTERN SD THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL SD EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CHANCES FOR ANY THUNDER WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA LATE TODAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
THOSE AREAS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S OVER NORTHEAST WY
AND THE BLACK HILLS...TO THE 70S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY THIS EVENING AND FAR NORTHWEST SD EARLY THURSDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM CLIPS THESE
AREAS. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THURSDAY WILL BE A WINDY DAY AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF SECONDARY LOW THAT
PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY. MILD
AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...50S OVER
THE BLACK HILLS. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL BE PLACE ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY BRINGING MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONG UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE NRN
PLAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH WDSPRD PCPN WORKING INTO THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. LATEST 00Z RUNS
OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE NOW SHIFTING THE MAIN UPPER LOW FURTHER
SOUTH...WITH THE CONSENSUS TAKING THE LOW ACROSS KANSAS. UNDER THIS
SCENARIO...TEMP PROFILES WOULD NOT BE QUITE AS COLD FOR OUR AREA AND
WOULD RESULT IN MORE OF A RAIN EVENT VERSUS SNOW. HOWEVER...SHOULD
THE MODELS TREND BACK FURTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER LOW THEN SNOW
CHANCES WOULD INCREASE. STAY TUNED AS MODEL SHIFTS ARE LIKELY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...BRINGING GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTN. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR OVER NWRN AND WCNTRL SD WHERE GUSTS TO 40KTS ARE
EXPECTED. A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY
BRINGING LCL MVFR VSBYS...BUT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-
     026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON






000
FXUS63 KUNR 231606
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1006 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. WINDS ARE
STARTING TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST
WYOMING...AND STILL EXPECT THEM TO BECOME WINDY THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE CWA...WITH
SOME CLEARING SKIES WORKING INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING. RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH WEST AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
TWEAKED POPS AND SKY GRIDS...BUT REST OF FORECAST LOOKS FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST
MT...WITH COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR NORTHEAST WY ZONES. WARM
FRONT STRETCHES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN SD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS TROF MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST BC. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION
IS BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS...WITH REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM
EARLIER OVER CENTRAL SD NOW. TEMPS ARE VERY MILD THIS
MORNING...WITH 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. A STRONG
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET IS CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND
NEB...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS NEAR AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
PERKINS TO SHANNON COUNTIES.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UPPER LOW REMAINING WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA...AS IT MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP US ON THE DRIER AND WINDY SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT TO THE
WEST PUSHES THROUGH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS EACH DAY. A WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THIS AREA TODAY AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR THE SAME AREAS TOMORROW AS WELL. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST WY AND
WESTERN SD THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL SD EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CHANCES FOR ANY THUNDER WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA LATE TODAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
THOSE AREAS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S OVER NORTHEAST WY
AND THE BLACK HILLS...TO THE 70S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY THIS EVENING AND FAR NORTHWEST SD EARLY THURSDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM CLIPS THESE
AREAS. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THURSDAY WILL BE A WINDY DAY AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF SECONDARY LOW THAT
PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY. MILD
AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...50S OVER
THE BLACK HILLS. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL BE PLACE ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY BRINGING MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONG UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE NRN
PLAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH WDSPRD PCPN WORKING INTO THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. LATEST 00Z RUNS
OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE NOW SHIFTING THE MAIN UPPER LOW FURTHER
SOUTH...WITH THE CONSENSUS TAKING THE LOW ACROSS KANSAS. UNDER THIS
SCENARIO...TEMP PROFILES WOULD NOT BE QUITE AS COLD FOR OUR AREA AND
WOULD RESULT IN MORE OF A RAIN EVENT VERSUS SNOW. HOWEVER...SHOULD
THE MODELS TREND BACK FURTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER LOW THEN SNOW
CHANCES WOULD INCREASE. STAY TUNED AS MODEL SHIFTS ARE LIKELY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...BRINGING GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTN. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR OVER NWRN AND WCNTRL SD WHERE GUSTS TO 40KTS ARE
EXPECTED. A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY
BRINGING LCL MVFR VSBYS...BUT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-
     026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON







000
FXUS65 KCYS 231132
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
532 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

WINDY AND DRY DAYS WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING
ACROSS WESTERN WY. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN
CARBON COUNTY WITH WIND GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH. COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY ACROSS CARBON COUNTY TOO. THE MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
MORNING. WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF EXCELLENT MIXING AND QG SUBSIDENCE. THE
850MB CAG-CPR GRADIENT INCREASES TO AROUND 50 METERS BY 18Z AND
WITH 1 KM AGL WIND OF 40-45 KTS...COULD SEE A FEW GUST APPROACHING
50 MPH DURING THE AFTN. FURTHER EAST INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
GUSTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 40 KTS. WITH GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER
FROM ALOFT...WILL SEE DEWPOINTS FALL SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE AFTN.
LOWERED DEWPOINTS IN THE GRIDS AND NOW GETTING MIN RH VALUES OF
20-25 PERCENT. SINCE SPC HAS THE PANHANDLE IN AN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER THREAT THIS AFTN...MADE A MENTION OF THIS IN THE FWF.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SLIM TODAY WITH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
LACK OF SFC INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER
TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THURS
MORNING WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA. WINDS WILL
DECREASE TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING...ONLY TO RAMP UP
AGAIN BY LATE THURS MORNING. DO NOT BELIEVE THAT WINDS WILL BE
QUITE AS STRONG DURING THE DAY ON THURS...HOWEVER GUSTS TO 35-40
KTS WILL STILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY. RH
VALUES DROP TO 15-20 PERCENT OVER THE PANHANDLE SO ANOTHER ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED. SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD ON
FRI WITH SFC WINDS BECOMING SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST AS PRESSURE FALLS
OCCUR TO THE WEST OF THE REGION. LI VALUES AROUND 0C WILL PROMOTE
A BETTER COVERAGE OF AFTN CUMULUS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT...FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. STILL
RELATIVELY MILD IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF RAWLINS LATE.

SATURDAY...NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES TO THE
FOUR CORNERS BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH OUR COUNTIES IN THE WARM SECTOR.
LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOST NUMEROUS ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH
AND CONVERGENCE AXIS FROM CASPER TO LARAMIE.

SUNDAY...MODELS SIMILAR IN DEPICTING THE STRONG CLOSED UPPER TROUGH
MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
MODELS SHOW COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF QPF...WHICH SEEMS PLAUSIBLE...WITH
INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
MOISTURE LADEN STORM SYSTEM. PROGGED THICKNESSES SUGGEST MOSTLY RAIN
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. IN ANY EVENT...IT
WILL BE BLUSTERY AND COOL WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS.

MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD...THOUGH STILL
WRAPAROUND SHOWERS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
WHERE UPSLOPE WILL AID LIFT. COOL AND BLUSTERY BASED ON PROGGED
THICKNESSES.

TUESDAY...DRYING OUT PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES FAR ENOUGH
EAST OF OUR COUNTIES...THOUGH COOL NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL RETARD AND
LIMIT WARMING TREND. CONTINUED BREEZY TO WINDY PER PROGGED LOW AND
MID LEVEL GRADIENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 529 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 9000 FEET AGL.
WEST WIND 20 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS THROUGH 00Z...THEN
WINDS SUBSIDING IN THE EVENING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. LOCALIZED
MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE AND LEE EDDY EFFECTS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH WINDY
AND DRY CONDITIONS BEHIND IT. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE 20 TO 25 PERCENT AND WEST WIND GUSTS WILL
REACH 35 TO 40 MPH. CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 20
PERCENT. AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS THUS WARRANTED OVER
THE NEXT TWO AFTERNOONS ACROSS THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
WHERE FUELS ARE STILL DRY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FIRE GROWTH.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH







000
FXUS65 KCYS 230949
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
349 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

WINDY AND DRY DAYS WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING
ACROSS WESTERN WY. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN
CARBON COUNTY WITH WIND GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH. COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY ACROSS CARBON COUNTY TOO. THE MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
MORNING. WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF EXCELLENT MIXING AND QG SUBSIDENCE. THE
850MB CAG-CPR GRADIENT INCREASES TO AROUND 50 METERS BY 18Z AND
WITH 1 KM AGL WIND OF 40-45 KTS...COULD SEE A FEW GUST APPROACHING
50 MPH DURING THE AFTN. FURTHER EAST INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
GUSTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 40 KTS. WITH GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER
FROM ALOFT...WILL SEE DEWPOINTS FALL SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE AFTN.
LOWERED DEWPOINTS IN THE GRIDS AND NOW GETTING MIN RH VALUES OF
20-25 PERCENT. SINCE SPC HAS THE PANHANDLE IN AN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER THREAT THIS AFTN...MADE A MENTION OF THIS IN THE FWF.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SLIM TODAY WITH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
LACK OF SFC INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER
TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THURS
MORNING WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA. WINDS WILL
DECREASE TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING...ONLY TO RAMP UP
AGAIN BY LATE THURS MORNING. DO NOT BELIEVE THAT WINDS WILL BE
QUITE AS STRONG DURING THE DAY ON THURS...HOWEVER GUSTS TO 35-40
KTS WILL STILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY. RH
VALUES DROP TO 15-20 PERCENT OVER THE PANHANDLE SO ANOTHER ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED. SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD ON
FRI WITH SFC WINDS BECOMING SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST AS PRESSURE FALLS
OCCUR TO THE WEST OF THE REGION. LI VALUES AROUND 0C WILL PROMOTE
A BETTER COVERAGE OF AFTN CUMULUS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT...FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. STILL
RELATIVELY MILD IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF RAWLINS LATE.

SATURDAY...NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES TO THE
FOUR CORNERS BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH OUR COUNTIES IN THE WARM SECTOR.
LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOST NUMEROUS ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH
AND CONVERGENCE AXIS FROM CASPER TO LARAMIE.

SUNDAY...MODELS SIMILAR IN DEPICTING THE STRONG CLOSED UPPER TROUGH
MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
MODELS SHOW COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF QPF...WHICH SEEMS PLAUSIBLE...WITH
INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
MOISTURE LADEN STORM SYSTEM. PROGGED THICKNESSES SUGGEST MOSTLY RAIN
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. IN ANY EVENT...IT
WILL BE BLUSTERY AND COOL WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS.

MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD...THOUGH STILL
WRAPAROUND SHOWERS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
WHERE UPSLOPE WILL AID LIFT. COOL AND BLUSTERY BASED ON PROGGED
THICKNESSES.

TUESDAY...DRYING OUT PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES FAR ENOUGH
EAST OF OUR COUNTIES...THOUGH COOL NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL RETARD AND
LIMIT WARMING TREND. CONTINUED BREEZY TO WINDY PER PROGGED LOW AND
MID LEVEL GRADIENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR PREVAILS. STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...PRODUCING
STRONG WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS AFTER
MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AROUND THE RAWLINS
TAF SITE FROM 08Z TO 15Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH WINDY
AND DRY CONDITIONS BEHIND IT. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE 20 TO 25 PERCENT AND WEST WIND GUSTS WILL
REACH 35 TO 40 MPH. CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 20
PERCENT. AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS THUS WARRANTED OVER
THE NEXT TWO AFTERNOONS ACROSS THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
WHERE FUELS ARE STILL DRY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FIRE GROWTH.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH





000
FXUS65 KRIW 230933
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
333 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

A STRONGLY FORCED COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SWEEPING EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY IN THE MORNING. THE MAIN TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
EARLY WITH SOME DECENT QG FORCING REMAINING A PLAYER...POPS WERE
KEPT BROAD ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LINGERING UPPER LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH THE TROUGH...IN ADDITION TO
THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE SURFACE LOW IS
PRETTY FAR NORTH AND FLOW REMAINS WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY...WHICH IS
MOST FAVORABLE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND NORTHERN BIGHORN BASIN
BUT POPS WERE KEPT BROAD FOR THE MORNING. IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
COOLER TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS...DECREASING TO SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR
THE FOOTHILLS AND MORE ISOLATED OUT IN THE BASINS AND SOUTH. SOME
MEASURABLE SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE TODAY IN THE WRN MOUNTAINS AND
BIGHORNS...BUT THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL CEASE
EARLY THIS MORNING.

WIND WILL BE QUITE STRONG AGAIN TODAY IN THE SINKING MOTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE. ANOTHER WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SEPARATE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JOGGING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL
GRAZE THE NORTHERN ZONES EARLY ON THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS...BIGHORNS AND
NORTHERN BIGHORN BASIN. FLAT RIDGING BUILDS IN QUICKLY BEHIND THIS
WAVE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
HOLD FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME MOISTURE ALREADY
ARRIVING IN THE FAR WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM.

THE NEXT DIGGING TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL SEND OUT A LEADING
SHORT WAVE SET TO ARRIVE IN THE WEST EARLY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN
AND SNOW WILL BLANKET THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS BY FRIDAY
EVENING. MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
SNOW LEVELS REMAINING HIGH. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH
RAIN COULD FALL ACROSS THE WEST BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR OVER ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN SOME LOW ELEVATION AREAS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

00Z GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE MAIN ENERGY
WITH THE TROUGH IMPACTING THE ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. BY 12Z
SATURDAY...THE MAIN ENERGY/UPPER LOW WITH THE WESTERN TROUGH IS
PROGGED BY MODELS TO BE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA AREA.
THIS UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SLIDES ACROSS ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT...EMERGING ACROSS SE COLORADO/W KANSAS SUNDAY
MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...SOME WEAKER ENERGY IN THE TROUGH COULD
IMPACT THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK IS LESS
CONDUCIVE FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER TIMING OF THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST SHOT WEST OF THE DIVIDE WILL SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING...SHIFTING EAST OF THE DIVIDE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY SOME MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER
LOW...IN COMBINATION WITH SOME LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE COULD ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION OVER THE EXTREME EAST. GLOBAL MODELS...WITH THE MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK HAVE ALSO HAVE WARMED THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WITH
LOWER ELEVATIONS REMAINING MAINLY RAIN...ESPECIALLY EAST.

THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...ONLY REACHING SOME WHERE BETWEEN CENTRAL KANSAS TO SE IOWA.
PRECIPITATION DIRECTLY RELATED TO THIS UPPER LOW SHOULD END SUNDAY
EVENING. HOWEVER SOME ENERGY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON ITS BACKSIDE
COULD RESULT IN SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY.

RIDGING IS THE EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE WEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GFS FARTHER EAST WITH THE RIDGE AXIS THAN THE
ECMWF. BOTH SOLUTIONS RESULT IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER...BUT THE GFS IS
MUCH WARMER.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR UNTIL 13Z AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
GUSTY WIND FOR MUCH OF TODAY IN MANY PLACES WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH. SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE BIGHORN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. SEE
INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL SITES FOR MORE DETAILS.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

SNOW WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 15Z. THEN SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY...WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE REST OF THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS. THE KJAC TERMINAL SITE WILL SEE SOME SNOW UNTIL
11Z...THEN SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY MUCH OF THE DAY AND EVENING.
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH WILL SEE ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
UNTIL 12Z. THEN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AFT 12Z WITH A GUSTY WIND. SEE
INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL SITES FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
STRONG WINDS TURNING WEST AND A FEW SHOWERS. IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
COOLER THAN TUESDAY BUT STILL RATHER DRY EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH MIN
RH`S IN THE TEENS AND 20S. IT WILL BE WARMER ON THURSDAY AND IT WILL
REMAIN DRY AND BREEZY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
RAIN SHOWERS RETURN TO THE WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WARM...DRY AND
BREEZY AGAIN ON FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM.


&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN








000
FXUS63 KUNR 230925
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
325 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST
MT...WITH COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR NORTHEAST WY ZONES. WARM
FRONT STRETCHES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN SD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS TROF MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST BC. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION
IS BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS...WITH REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM
EARLIER OVER CENTRAL SD NOW. TEMPS ARE VERY MILD THIS
MORNING...WITH 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. A STRONG
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET IS CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND
NEB...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS NEAR AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
PERKINS TO SHANNON COUNTIES.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UPPER LOW REMAINING WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA...AS IT MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP US ON THE DRIER AND WINDY SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT TO THE
WEST PUSHES THROUGH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS EACH DAY. A WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THIS AREA TODAY AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR THE SAME AREAS TOMORROW AS WELL. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST WY AND
WESTERN SD THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL SD EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CHANCES FOR ANY THUNDER WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA LATE TODAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
THOSE AREAS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S OVER NORTHEAST WY
AND THE BLACK HILLS...TO THE 70S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY THIS EVENING AND FAR NORTHWEST SD EARLY THURSDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM CLIPS THESE
AREAS. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THURSDAY WILL BE A WINDY DAY AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF SECONDARY LOW THAT
PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY. MILD
AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...50S OVER
THE BLACK HILLS. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL BE PLACE ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY BRINGING MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONG UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE NRN
PLAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH WDSPRD PCPN WORKING INTO THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. LATEST 00Z RUNS
OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE NOW SHIFTING THE MAIN UPPER LOW FURTHER
SOUTH...WITH THE CONSENSUS TAKING THE LOW ACROSS KANSAS. UNDER THIS
SCENARIO...TEMP PROFILES WOULD NOT BE QUITE AS COLD FOR OUR AREA AND
WOULD RESULT IN MORE OF A RAIN EVENT VERSUS SNOW. HOWEVER...SHOULD
THE MODELS TREND BACK FURTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER LOW THEN SNOW
CHANCES WOULD INCREASE. STAY TUNED AS MODEL SHIFTS ARE LIKELY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...BRINGING GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTN. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR OVER NWRN AND WCNTRL SD WHERE GUSTS TO 40KTS ARE
EXPECTED. A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY
BRINGING LCL MVFR VSBYS...BUT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON







000
FXUS65 KCYS 230532
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1132 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 551 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED MAINLY
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH THE MAIN ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. INCREASED POP THIS EVENING AS
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH. THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN THIS EVENING IS THE LITTLE SNAKE RIVER
NEAR SAVERY IN SW CARBON COUNTY. RIVER LEVEL IS AT ITS DIURNAL MIN
FOR THE DAY AND IS EXPECTED TO RISE AND BE CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT THIS RIVER
TO REACH FLOOD STAGE HOWEVER...SO WILL CONTINUE THE HYDRO
STATEMENT FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NOW MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS
TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WITH SOME SPREAD FARTHER EASTWARD.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WEAK SO EXPECT ANY STORMS TO REMAIN
ISOLATED...WITH WEAKENING THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE CWA LATER TONIGHT BRINGING AN INCREASE
IN WIND WEDNESDAY. HIGH WIND STILL NOT LOOKING LIKELY BUT A FEW
STRONG GUSTS COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN WIND-FAVORED AREAS. MAINLY
DRY OTHER THAN OVER THE HIGHER MTNS WHERE SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE UPPER TROF AXIS PASSES WEDS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DROP OFF WEDS EVENING WITH CLEARING ALLOWING FOR COOL
TEMPS WEDS NIGHT. DRY AND MILD THURSDAY UNDER A WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO MIXING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE UNSETTLED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. MAIN CONCERN IS IN
THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY TIME PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF ARE
TRENDING TOWARD A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE FOR CORNERS AREA SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE SATURDAY...AND THEN NORTHWARD
INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IF THIS TRACK
DOES PAN OUT THERE WOULD LIKELY BE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS. A LITTLE EARLY TO
RINGING ANY ALARM BELLS BUT MOST CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN
EYE ON. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...WYOMING SEVERE WEATHER AWARENESS
WEEK COULD END AT THE BEGINNING OF A MAJOR LATE SEASON SNOW STORM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR PREVAILS. STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...PRODUCING
STRONG WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS AFTER
MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AROUND THE RAWLINS
TAF SITE FROM 08Z TO 15Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WIND LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. OTHER FACTORS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE CRITICAL SO OVERALL CONCERNS NOT TOO GREAT.
TEMPERATURES COOLER WEDS THEN MILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...RE







000
FXUS65 KRIW 230501
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1101 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY (ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT)

SHOWERS ALREADY FORMING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND EVEN CENTRAL PORTIONS
WITH A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE SW BY NOON. IN BETWEEN THIS
FIRST SHORTWAVE AND OUR MAIN SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT IS A CLEAR SLOT
OVER ERN ID THAT IS ALREADY FILLING WITH SOME DEVELOPING CONVECTION.
MORNING FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MODEST CAPE IN THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY THE NW WITH 400-700 J/KG POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE IN THE FIRST COUPLE KM TO GET SOME
STRONGER CELLS FIRING. WILL KEEP OUR SVR WORDING IN THE FAR W AND NW
THROUGH 02Z FOR THIS POTENTIAL. HIGHEST RISK IS WIND DAMAGE BUT A
COUPLE CELLS COULD PRODUCE SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...THERE IS ALSO SOME CAPE IN THE FORECAST SOUNDING WITH
200-400 J/KG IN SPOT. SO IDEA OF AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS IS STILL GOOD THERE. OTHERWISE...WINDY TO
VERY WINDY WITH STILL SOME POTENTIAL OF HIGH WINDS MAINLY THIS
EVENING ALONG THE EAST SLOPE OF THE WIND RIVER MTNS AND LANDER
FOOTHILLS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND STRONG JET ALOFT MOVES IN.
WILL LOOK CLOSELY AT WHETHER WE NEED A HIGH WIND WARNING OR STRONGLY
WORDED SPS. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA WILL ADD TO THE
OVERALL AMBIENT GRADIENT FLOW SIMILAR TO A COUPLE DAYS AGO. THE WIND
RIVER BASIN UP TO DUBOIS WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES AND BLASTS THROUGH. TIMING IS LATER THAN OPTIMUM SO THAT
MAY HELP BUT STILL IT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED. AFTER THE INITIAL BLAST
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT WEST...THE SNOW LEVEL WILL LOWER
FROM 10K FEET TO THE VALLEY FLOOR BY MIDNIGHT WITH OFF AND ON SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. EAST OF THE DIVIDE...IT WILL BE
20-25 DEGREES COOLER WITH STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND AND A FEW
SHOWERS AROUND...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND UP NORTH. A
BETTER CHANCE IN THE FAR NORTH WITH THE SWD MOVING FRONT IN THE
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE SHOULD BE A GRADUAL WANING IN ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
TROUGH AXIS MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD. WE
STILL HAVE SOME NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH CAN NOT BE TRUSTED...ESPECIALLY
THIS YEAR. ALSO...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING SOME 50 KNOT
WINDS AT 700 MILLIBARS SO THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL
HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS. WIND SHOULD DECREASE LATER AT NIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY.

WE SHOULD THEN ENTER A LULL IN THE WEATHER AS SOME FLAT...SHORT WAVE
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE STATE. THERE WILL STILL BE A BIT OF ENERGY
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE SO WE HAVE MAINTAINED SOME POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...ANY AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. ALL MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER EAST OF THE
DIVIDE SO WE REMOVED POPS FROM MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
WE STILL EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR MANY AREAS AS WELL ALTHOUGH
NOT AS WINDY AS THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REBOUND CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND RISING
THICKNESSES.

THE BREAK IS EXPECTED TO BE A SHORT ONE HOWEVER AS THE NEXT PACIFIC
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. THERE ARE
SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION
SO MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE TIMING AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD INTO WESTERN AREAS ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
LEVELS RUNNING AROUND 8000 TO 9000 FEET. MEANWHILE...AREAS EAST OF
THE DIVIDE SHOULD HAVE ONE MORE DRY DAY WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW
KEEPING THINGS DRY. THIS SHOULD ALSO KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THAT DAY AS WELL.

PRECIPITATION THEN BEGINS TO SPREAD EAST OF THE DIVIDE INITIALLY ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE BEST FORCING ARRIVES.
MEANWHILE...WEST OF THE DIVIDE IT STILL LOOKS FAIRLY UNSETTLED WITH
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE VALLEYS
WITH SNOW LEVELS INITIALLY RUNNING AROUND 8000 FEET THEN FALLING TO
THE VALLEY FLOORS AT NIGHT. THERE APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN THIS FAR
OUT.

THEN LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS EAST OF THE ROCK MOUNTAINS AND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER STILL LOOKS TO HANG
AROUND THROUGH SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS FOR THE VALLEYS...AGAIN STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY. ONE
THING THAT IS CERTAIN IS THAT THE EXTENDED GFS MOS GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES ARE WAY TOO WARM. AGAIN...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO
CONTINUITY. THE MODELS THEN GO SPLITS VILLE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE EUROPEAN KEEPING THINGS UNSETTLED AND GFS DRYING THINGS OUT.
WITH THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...WE LEFT CONTINUITY ALONE.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR UNTIL 12Z AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
GUSTY WIND FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY IN MANY PLACES WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH. SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE BIGHORN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. SEE
INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL SITES FOR MORE DETAILS.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

SNOW WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 15Z. THEN SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN THESE LOCATIONS. THE KJAC
TERMINAL SITE WILL SEE SOME SNOW UNTIL 11Z...THEN SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE VCNTY MUCH OF THE DAY AND EVENING ON WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH WILL SEE ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 12Z. THEN
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WIND. SEE INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL SITES
FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...HAZARDOUS BURNING CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH STRONG WINDS...SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MUCH MORE NUMEROUS WEST OF THE DIVIDE WITH
MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE DIVIDE. RH`S IN
THE TEENS AND 20S COMBINED WITH THE VERY STRONG WIND WILL KEEP THE
RISK OF ANY FIRES GETTING OUT OF CONTROL RATHER HIGH IF THEY OCCUR
EAST OF THE DIVIDE ESPECIALLY. IT WILL CONTINUE VERY WINDY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN TUESDAY
BUT STILL RATHER DRY EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH MIN RH`S IN THE TEENS
AND 20S.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 AM MDT WEDNESDAY WYZ018.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKRBAC
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...SKRBAC







000
FXUS65 KCYS 222358
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
558 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 551 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED MAINLY
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH THE MAIN ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. INCREASED POP THIS EVENING AS
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH. THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN THIS EVENING IS THE LITTLE SNAKE RIVER
NEAR SAVERY IN SW CARBON COUNTY. RIVER LEVEL IS AT ITS DIURNAL MIN
FOR THE DAY AND IS EXPECTED TO RISE AND BE CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT THIS RIVER
TO REACH FLOOD STAGE HOWEVER...SO WILL CONTINUE THE HYDRO
STATEMENT FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NOW MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS
TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WITH SOME SPREAD FARTHER EASTWARD.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WEAK SO EXPECT ANY STORMS TO REMAIN
ISOLATED...WITH WEAKENING THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE CWA LATER TONIGHT BRINGING AN INCREASE
IN WIND WEDNESDAY. HIGH WIND STILL NOT LOOKING LIKELY BUT A FEW
STRONG GUSTS COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN WIND-FAVORED AREAS. MAINLY
DRY OTHER THAN OVER THE HIGHER MTNS WHERE SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE UPPER TROF AXIS PASSES WEDS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DROP OFF WEDS EVENING WITH CLEARING ALLOWING FOR COOL
TEMPS WEDS NIGHT. DRY AND MILD THURSDAY UNDER A WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO MIXING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE UNSETTLED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. MAIN CONCERN IS IN
THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY TIME PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF ARE
TRENDING TOWARD A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE FOR CORNERS AREA SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE SATURDAY...AND THEN NORTHWARD
INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IF THIS TRACK
DOES PAN OUT THERE WOULD LIKELY BE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS. A LITTLE EARLY TO
RINGING ANY ALARM BELLS BUT MOST CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN
EYE ON. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...WYOMING SEVERE WEATHER AWARENESS
WEEK COULD END AT THE BEGINNING OF A MAJOR LATE SEASON SNOW STORM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. ERRATIC WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND SHOWER ACTIVITY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTS OVER 50
MPH POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT SUBSIDING BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WIND LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. OTHER FACTORS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE CRITICAL SO OVERALL CONCERNS NOT TOO GREAT.
TEMPERATURES COOLER WEDS THEN MILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...RE







000
FXUS65 KCYS 222325
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
300 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NOW MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS
TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WITH SOME SPREAD FARTHER EASTWARD.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WEAK SO EXPECT ANY STORMS TO REMAIN
ISOLATED...WITH WEAKENING THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE CWA LATER TONIGHT BRINGING AN INCREASE
IN WIND WEDNESDAY. HIGH WIND STILL NOT LOOKING LIKELY BUT A FEW
STRONG GUSTS COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN WIND-FAVORED AREAS. MAINLY
DRY OTHER THAN OVER THE HIGHER MTNS WHERE SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE UPPER TROF AXIS PASSES WEDS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DROP OFF WEDS EVENING WITH CLEARING ALLOWING FOR COOL
TEMPS WEDS NIGHT. DRY AND MILD THURSDAY UNDER A WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO MIXING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE UNSETTLED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. MAIN CONCERN IS IN
THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY TIME PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF ARE
TRENDING TOWARD A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE FOR CORNERS AREA SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE SATURDAY...AND THEN NORTHWARD
INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IF THIS TRACK
DOES PAN OUT THERE WOULD LIKELY BE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS. A LITTLE EARLY TO
RINGING ANY ALARM BELLS BUT MOST CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN
EYE ON. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...WYOMING SEVERE WEATHER AWARENESS
WEEK COULD END AT THE BEGINNING OF A MAJOR LATE SEASON SNOW STORM.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. ERRATIC WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND SHOWER ACTIVITY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTS OVER 50
MPH POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT SUBSIDING BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WIND LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. OTHER FACTORS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE CRITICAL SO OVERALL CONCERNS NOT TOO GREAT.
TEMPERATURES COOLER WEDS THEN MILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

LITTLE SNAKE RIVER NEAR SAVERY PUSHES INTO ACTION STAGE THIS
MORNING BUT SINCE HAS DROPPED BELOW AS IT FOLLOWS ITS TYPICAL
DIURNAL TREND. THE GAUGE WILL LIKELY MOVE BACK INTO ACTION STAGE
TONIGHT...PUSHING WITHIN A HALF FOOT OF FLOOD STAGE. NOT TOO
CONCERNED AT THIS TIME. WORST CASE IT TOUCHES FLOOD STAGE BEFORE
FALLING BACK AGAIN. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWING THE SNOW MELT OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...RE
HYDROLOGY...SML











000
FXUS63 KUNR 222308
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
508 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL US...AND A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST COAST. SURFACE
TROUGH/WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...CREATING BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WY...MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST SD. TEMPS ARE RISING INTO THE 70S...WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 30S.

UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH THE
SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN SD BY 12Z. ML CAPE OF 200-500 J/KG
COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROUNDING THE TROUGH MAY RESULT IN A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...BUT
LOW LEVELS ARE PRETTY DRY AND CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
ANYTHING SEVERE. LOCATION OF THE LOW INDICATES A POTENTIAL DRY SLOT
SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH
MOST PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH AND EAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S.

A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN CROSSING THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRESSURE RISES OF 4-5 MB/3HR AND SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION
SUGGEST GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS INTO RAPID
CITY. MODELS INDICATE 25-30 KT WIND SPEEDS LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS...SO DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE USUAL WINDY SPOTS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TOMORROW DEPENDING ON
THE COLD FRONT...BUT HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 50S ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY AND NORTHWEST SD...TO THE UPPER 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SD. MAY BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS PRECIP WRAPS AROUND THE
LOW...BUT AGAIN NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
IN THE EVENING AND PRECIP WILL MOVE OUT...AND LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 30S.


&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

GENERALLY MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON THU AND FRI
AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EWD ALONG THE CNDN BORDER AND TRANSITORY
UPPER RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. THERE COULD BE A FEW
-SHRA ACRS FAR NWRN SD THU MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS IN. VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGN THU DUE TO A TIGHT SFC PRESS GRAD.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONG UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF/GFS/GEM ALL AGREE IN SHOWING A VIGOROUS
UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES SAT/EARLY SUN AND INTO
THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS SUN/MON. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH LATEST THERMAL PROFILES BOOSTING
CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPS SHOULD BECOME QUITE COLD...20 DEGREES OR MORE
BELOW AVERAGE FOR HIGH TEMPS. THIS COULD LEAD TO ACCUMULATING
SNOW...MOST LIKELY OVER THE BLACK HILLS...BUT POSSIBLY ON THE PLAINS
AS WELL. AT THIS TIME IT REMAINS MUCH TO EARLY TO KNOW HOW MUCH SNOW
MIGHT ACCUMULATE AS THAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
TRACK...STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 507 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE A FEW HIGH BASED
SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS EVENING CONTAINING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-
     013-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...7






000
FXUS63 KUNR 222308
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
508 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL US...AND A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST COAST. SURFACE
TROUGH/WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...CREATING BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WY...MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST SD. TEMPS ARE RISING INTO THE 70S...WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 30S.

UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH THE
SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN SD BY 12Z. ML CAPE OF 200-500 J/KG
COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROUNDING THE TROUGH MAY RESULT IN A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...BUT
LOW LEVELS ARE PRETTY DRY AND CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
ANYTHING SEVERE. LOCATION OF THE LOW INDICATES A POTENTIAL DRY SLOT
SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH
MOST PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH AND EAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S.

A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN CROSSING THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRESSURE RISES OF 4-5 MB/3HR AND SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION
SUGGEST GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS INTO RAPID
CITY. MODELS INDICATE 25-30 KT WIND SPEEDS LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS...SO DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE USUAL WINDY SPOTS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TOMORROW DEPENDING ON
THE COLD FRONT...BUT HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 50S ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY AND NORTHWEST SD...TO THE UPPER 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SD. MAY BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS PRECIP WRAPS AROUND THE
LOW...BUT AGAIN NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
IN THE EVENING AND PRECIP WILL MOVE OUT...AND LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 30S.


&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

GENERALLY MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON THU AND FRI
AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EWD ALONG THE CNDN BORDER AND TRANSITORY
UPPER RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. THERE COULD BE A FEW
-SHRA ACRS FAR NWRN SD THU MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS IN. VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGN THU DUE TO A TIGHT SFC PRESS GRAD.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONG UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF/GFS/GEM ALL AGREE IN SHOWING A VIGOROUS
UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES SAT/EARLY SUN AND INTO
THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS SUN/MON. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH LATEST THERMAL PROFILES BOOSTING
CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPS SHOULD BECOME QUITE COLD...20 DEGREES OR MORE
BELOW AVERAGE FOR HIGH TEMPS. THIS COULD LEAD TO ACCUMULATING
SNOW...MOST LIKELY OVER THE BLACK HILLS...BUT POSSIBLY ON THE PLAINS
AS WELL. AT THIS TIME IT REMAINS MUCH TO EARLY TO KNOW HOW MUCH SNOW
MIGHT ACCUMULATE AS THAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
TRACK...STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 507 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE A FEW HIGH BASED
SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS EVENING CONTAINING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-
     013-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...7






000
FXUS63 KUNR 222308
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
508 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL US...AND A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST COAST. SURFACE
TROUGH/WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...CREATING BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WY...MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST SD. TEMPS ARE RISING INTO THE 70S...WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 30S.

UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH THE
SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN SD BY 12Z. ML CAPE OF 200-500 J/KG
COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROUNDING THE TROUGH MAY RESULT IN A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...BUT
LOW LEVELS ARE PRETTY DRY AND CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
ANYTHING SEVERE. LOCATION OF THE LOW INDICATES A POTENTIAL DRY SLOT
SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH
MOST PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH AND EAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S.

A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN CROSSING THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRESSURE RISES OF 4-5 MB/3HR AND SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION
SUGGEST GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS INTO RAPID
CITY. MODELS INDICATE 25-30 KT WIND SPEEDS LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS...SO DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE USUAL WINDY SPOTS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TOMORROW DEPENDING ON
THE COLD FRONT...BUT HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 50S ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY AND NORTHWEST SD...TO THE UPPER 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SD. MAY BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS PRECIP WRAPS AROUND THE
LOW...BUT AGAIN NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
IN THE EVENING AND PRECIP WILL MOVE OUT...AND LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 30S.


&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

GENERALLY MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON THU AND FRI
AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EWD ALONG THE CNDN BORDER AND TRANSITORY
UPPER RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. THERE COULD BE A FEW
-SHRA ACRS FAR NWRN SD THU MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS IN. VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGN THU DUE TO A TIGHT SFC PRESS GRAD.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONG UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF/GFS/GEM ALL AGREE IN SHOWING A VIGOROUS
UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES SAT/EARLY SUN AND INTO
THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS SUN/MON. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH LATEST THERMAL PROFILES BOOSTING
CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPS SHOULD BECOME QUITE COLD...20 DEGREES OR MORE
BELOW AVERAGE FOR HIGH TEMPS. THIS COULD LEAD TO ACCUMULATING
SNOW...MOST LIKELY OVER THE BLACK HILLS...BUT POSSIBLY ON THE PLAINS
AS WELL. AT THIS TIME IT REMAINS MUCH TO EARLY TO KNOW HOW MUCH SNOW
MIGHT ACCUMULATE AS THAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
TRACK...STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 507 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE A FEW HIGH BASED
SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS EVENING CONTAINING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-
     013-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...7






000
FXUS63 KUNR 222308
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
508 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL US...AND A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST COAST. SURFACE
TROUGH/WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...CREATING BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WY...MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST SD. TEMPS ARE RISING INTO THE 70S...WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 30S.

UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH THE
SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN SD BY 12Z. ML CAPE OF 200-500 J/KG
COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROUNDING THE TROUGH MAY RESULT IN A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...BUT
LOW LEVELS ARE PRETTY DRY AND CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
ANYTHING SEVERE. LOCATION OF THE LOW INDICATES A POTENTIAL DRY SLOT
SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH
MOST PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH AND EAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S.

A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN CROSSING THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRESSURE RISES OF 4-5 MB/3HR AND SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION
SUGGEST GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS INTO RAPID
CITY. MODELS INDICATE 25-30 KT WIND SPEEDS LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS...SO DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE USUAL WINDY SPOTS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TOMORROW DEPENDING ON
THE COLD FRONT...BUT HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 50S ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY AND NORTHWEST SD...TO THE UPPER 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SD. MAY BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS PRECIP WRAPS AROUND THE
LOW...BUT AGAIN NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
IN THE EVENING AND PRECIP WILL MOVE OUT...AND LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 30S.


&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

GENERALLY MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON THU AND FRI
AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EWD ALONG THE CNDN BORDER AND TRANSITORY
UPPER RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. THERE COULD BE A FEW
-SHRA ACRS FAR NWRN SD THU MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS IN. VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGN THU DUE TO A TIGHT SFC PRESS GRAD.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONG UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF/GFS/GEM ALL AGREE IN SHOWING A VIGOROUS
UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES SAT/EARLY SUN AND INTO
THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS SUN/MON. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH LATEST THERMAL PROFILES BOOSTING
CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPS SHOULD BECOME QUITE COLD...20 DEGREES OR MORE
BELOW AVERAGE FOR HIGH TEMPS. THIS COULD LEAD TO ACCUMULATING
SNOW...MOST LIKELY OVER THE BLACK HILLS...BUT POSSIBLY ON THE PLAINS
AS WELL. AT THIS TIME IT REMAINS MUCH TO EARLY TO KNOW HOW MUCH SNOW
MIGHT ACCUMULATE AS THAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
TRACK...STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 507 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE A FEW HIGH BASED
SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS EVENING CONTAINING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-
     013-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...7






000
FXUS65 KCYS 222100
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
300 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NOW MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS
TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WITH SOME SPREAD FARTHER EASTWARD.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WEAK SO EXPECT ANY STORMS TO REMAIN
ISOLATED...WITH WEAKENING THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE CWA LATER TONIGHT BRINGING AN INCREASE
IN WIND WEDNESDAY. HIGH WIND STILL NOT LOOKING LIKELY BUT A FEW
STRONG GUSTS COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN WIND-FAVORED AREAS. MAINLY
DRY OTHER THAN OVER THE HIGHER MTNS WHERE SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE UPPER TROF AXIS PASSES WEDS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DROP OFF WEDS EVENING WITH CLEARING ALLOWING FOR COOL
TEMPS WEDS NIGHT. DRY AND MILD THURSDAY UNDER A WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO MIXING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE UNSETTLED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. MAIN CONCERN IS IN
THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY TIME PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF ARE
TRENDING TOWARD A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE FOR CORNERS AREA SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE SATURDAY...AND THEN NORTHWARD
INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IF THIS TRACK
DOES PAN OUT THERE WOULD LIKELY BE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS. A LITTLE EARLY TO
RINGING ANY ALARM BELLS BUT MOST CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN
EYE ON. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...WYOMING SEVERE WEATHER AWARENESS
WEEK COULD END AT THE BEGINNING OF A MAJOR LATE SEASON SNOW STORM.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND OVER
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TODAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING. ERRATIC WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND SHOWER
ACTIVITY. A STRAY THUNDERSTORM ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
GUSTS OVER 50 MPH POSSIBLE IN FAVORED WIND PRONE AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY BUT DROP
OFF BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WIND LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. OTHER FACTORS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE CRITICAL SO OVERALL CONCERNS NOT TOO GREAT.
TEMPERATURES COOLER WEDS THEN MILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

LITTLE SNAKE RIVER NEAR SAVERY PUSHES INTO ACTION STAGE THIS
MORNING BUT SINCE HAS DROPPED BELOW AS IT FOLLOWS ITS TYPICAL
DIURNAL TREND. THE GUAGE WILL LIKELY MOVE BACK INTO ACTION STAGE
TONIGHT...PUSHING WITHIN A HALF FOOT OF FLOOD STAGE. NOT TOO
CONCERNED AT THIS TIME. WORST CASE IT TOUCHES FLOOD STAGE BEFORE
FALLING BACK AGAIN. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWING THE SNOW MELT OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...RE
HYDROLOGY...SML








000
FXUS65 KRIW 222041
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
205 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

UPDATED TO ADD A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 04Z FOR
PARK...TETON AND LINCOLN COUNTIES. CONFINING PARK COUNTY
TO JUST YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK AND THE ABSAROKAS FOR
NOW NOT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF PARK COUNTY.

SHOWERS ALREADY FORMING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND EVEN CENTRAL PORTIONS
WITH A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE SW BY NOON. IN BETWEEN THIS
FIRST SHORTWAVE AND OUR MAIN SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT IS A CLEAR SLOT
OVER ERN ID THAT IS ALREADY FILLING WITH SOME DEVELOPING CONVECTION.
MORNING FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MODEST CAPE IN THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY THE NW WITH 400-700 J/KG POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE IN THE FIRST COUPLE KM TO GET SOME
STRONGER CELLS FIRING. WILL KEEP OUR SVR WORDING IN THE FAR W AND NW
THROUGH 02Z FOR THIS POTENTIAL. HIGHEST RISK IS WIND DAMAGE BUT A
COUPLE CELLS COULD PRODUCE SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...THERE IS ALSO SOME CAPE IN THE FORECAST SOUNDING WITH
200-400 J/KG IN SPOT. SO IDEA OF AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS IS STILL GOOD THERE. OTHERWISE...WINDY TO
VERY WINDY WITH STILL SOME POTENTIAL OF HIGH WINDS MAINLY THIS
EVENING ALONG THE EAST SLOPE OF THE WIND RIVER MTNS AND LANDER
FOOTHILLS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND STRONG JET ALOFT MOVES IN.
WILL LOOK CLOSELY AT WHETHER WE NEED A HIGH WIND WARNING OR STRONGLY
WORDED SPS. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA WILL ADD TO THE
OVERALL AMBIENT GRADIENT FLOW SIMILAR TO A COUPLE DAYS AGO. THE WIND
RIVER BASIN UP TO DUBOIS WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES AND BLASTS THROUGH. TIMING IS LATER THAN OPTIMUM SO THAT
MAY HELP BUT STILL IT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED. AFTER THE INITIAL BLAST
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT WEST...THE SNOW LEVEL WILL LOWER
FROM 10K FEET TO THE VALLEY FLOOR BY MIDNIGHT WITH OFF AND ON SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. EAST OF THE DIVIDE...IT WILL BE
20-25 DEGREES COOLER WITH STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND AND A FEW
SHOWERS AROUND...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND UP NORTH. A
BETTER CHANCE IN THE FAR NORTH WITH THE SWD MOVING FRONT IN THE
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE SHOULD BE A GRADUAL WANING IN ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
TROUGH AXIS MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD. WE
STILL HAVE SOME NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH CAN NOT BE TRUSTED...ESPECIALLY
THIS YEAR. ALSO...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING SOME 50 KNOT
WINDS AT 700 MILLIBARS SO THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL
HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS. WIND SHOULD DECREASE LATER AT NIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY.

WE SHOULD THEN ENTER A LULL IN THE WEATHER AS SOME FLAT...SHORT WAVE
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE STATE. THERE WILL STILL BE A BIT OF ENERGY
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE SO WE HAVE MAINTAINED SOME POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...ANY AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. ALL MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER EAST OF THE
DIVIDE SO WE REMOVED POPS FROM MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
WE STILL EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR MANY AREAS AS WELL ALTHOUGH
NOT AS WINDY AS THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REBOUND CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND RISING
THICKNESSES.

THE BREAK IS EXPECTED TO BE A SHORT ONE HOWEVER AS THE NEXT PACIFIC
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. THERE ARE
SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION
SO MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE TIMING AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD INTO WESTERN AREAS ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
LEVELS RUNNING AROUND 8000 TO 9000 FEET. MEANWHILE...AREAS EAST OF
THE DIVIDE SHOULD HAVE ONE MORE DRY DAY WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW
KEEPING THINGS DRY. THIS SHOULD ALSO KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THAT DAY AS WELL.

PRECIPITATION THEN BEGINS TO SPREAD EAST OF THE DIVIDE INITIALLY ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE BEST FORCING ARRIVES.
MEANWHILE...WEST OF THE DIVIDE IT STILL LOOKS FAIRLY UNSETTLED WITH
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE VALLEYS
WITH SNOW LEVELS INITIALLY RUNNING AROUND 8000 FEET THEN FALLING TO
THE VALLEY FLOORS AT NIGHT. THERE APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN THIS FAR
OUT.

THEN LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS EAST OF THE ROCK MOUNTAINS AND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER STILL LOOKS TO HANG
AROUND THROUGH SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS FOR THE VALLEYS...AGAIN STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY. ONE
THING THAT IS CERTAIN IS THAT THE EXTENDED GFS MOS GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES ARE WAY TOO WARM. AGAIN...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO
CONTINUITY. THE MODELS THEN GO SPLITS VILLE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE EUROPEAN KEEPING THINGS UNSETTLED AND GFS DRYING THINGS OUT.
WITH THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...WE LEFT CONTINUITY ALONE.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT EXCEPT DURING PASSING
SHOWERS AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT A STRONG AND GUSTY WIND AT
MOST TERMINAL SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
EAST OF THE DIVIDE BETWEEN 05Z AND 10Z WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE
WEST. A STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL BLOW AT MOST TERMINAL
SITES ON WEDNESDAY. SEE INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL SITES FOR MORE DETAILS.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 03Z. MOST TERMINAL SITES WILL HAVE A STRONG
AND GUSTY WIND. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WEST MAY
BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH AND HAIL. LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING WITH DEVELOPING MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WEST BETWEEN 00Z AND 05Z WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
USHER IN COLDER AIR WITH RAIN SHOWERS TURNING TO SNOW SHOWERS. THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS. AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WEST THE WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST AND WILL BE GUSTY. IT WILL REMAIN
WINDY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WEST WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING
MUCH OF THE DAY. SEE INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL SITES FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...HAZARDOUS BURNING CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH STRONG WINDS...SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MUCH MORE NUMEROUS WEST OF THE DIVIDE WITH
MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE DIVIDE. RH`S IN
THE TEENS AND 20S COMBINED WITH THE VERY STRONG WIND WILL KEEP THE
RISK OF ANY FIRES GETTING OUT OF CONTROL RATHER HIGH IF THEY OCCUR
EAST OF THE DIVIDE ESPECIALLY. IT WILL CONTINUE VERY WINDY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN TUESDAY
BUT STILL RATHER DRY EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH MIN RH`S IN THE TEENS
AND 20S.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PARK...LINCOLN AND TETON COUNTIES
UNTIL 10 PM MDT.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 AM MDT WEDNESDAY WYZ018.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKRBAC
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...SKRBAC
FIRE WEATHER...SKRBAC











000
FXUS63 KUNR 222036
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
236 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL US...AND A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST COAST. SURFACE
TROUGH/WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...CREATING BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WY...MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST SD. TEMPS ARE RISING INTO THE 70S...WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 30S.

UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH THE
SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN SD BY 12Z. ML CAPE OF 200-500 J/KG
COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROUNDING THE TROUGH MAY RESULT IN A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...BUT
LOW LEVELS ARE PRETTY DRY AND CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
ANYTHING SEVERE. LOCATION OF THE LOW INDICATES A POTENTIAL DRY SLOT
SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH
MOST PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH AND EAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S.

A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN CROSSING THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRESSURE RISES OF 4-5 MB/3HR AND SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION
SUGGEST GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS INTO RAPID
CITY. MODELS INDICATE 25-30 KT WIND SPEEDS LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS...SO DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE USUAL WINDY SPOTS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TOMORROW DEPENDING ON
THE COLD FRONT...BUT HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 50S ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY AND NORTHWEST SD...TO THE UPPER 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SD. MAY BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS PRECIP WRAPS AROUND THE
LOW...BUT AGAIN NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
IN THE EVENING AND PRECIP WILL MOVE OUT...AND LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

GENERALLY MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON THU AND FRI
AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EWD ALONG THE CNDN BORDER AND TRANSITORY
UPPER RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. THERE COULD BE A FEW
-SHRA ACRS FAR NWRN SD THU MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS IN. VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGN THU DUE TO A TIGHT SFC PRESS GRAD.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONG UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF/GFS/GEM ALL AGREE IN SHOWING A VIGOROUS
UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES SAT/EARLY SUN AND INTO
THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS SUN/MON. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH LATEST THERMAL PROFILES BOOSTING
CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPS SHOULD BECOME QUITE COLD...20 DEGREES OR MORE
BELOW AVERAGE FOR HIGH TEMPS. THIS COULD LEAD TO ACCUMULATING
SNOW...MOST LIKELY OVER THE BLACK HILLS...BUT POSSIBLY ON THE PLAINS
AS WELL. AT THIS TIME IT REMAINS MUCH TO EARLY TO KNOW HOW MUCH SNOW
MIGHT ACCUMULATE AS THAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
TRACK...STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE A FEW HIGH BASED
SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS EVENING CONTAINING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-
     013-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10






000
FXUS63 KUNR 222036
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
236 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL US...AND A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST COAST. SURFACE
TROUGH/WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...CREATING BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WY...MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST SD. TEMPS ARE RISING INTO THE 70S...WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 30S.

UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH THE
SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN SD BY 12Z. ML CAPE OF 200-500 J/KG
COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROUNDING THE TROUGH MAY RESULT IN A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...BUT
LOW LEVELS ARE PRETTY DRY AND CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
ANYTHING SEVERE. LOCATION OF THE LOW INDICATES A POTENTIAL DRY SLOT
SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH
MOST PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH AND EAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S.

A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN CROSSING THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRESSURE RISES OF 4-5 MB/3HR AND SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION
SUGGEST GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS INTO RAPID
CITY. MODELS INDICATE 25-30 KT WIND SPEEDS LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS...SO DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE USUAL WINDY SPOTS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TOMORROW DEPENDING ON
THE COLD FRONT...BUT HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 50S ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY AND NORTHWEST SD...TO THE UPPER 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SD. MAY BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS PRECIP WRAPS AROUND THE
LOW...BUT AGAIN NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
IN THE EVENING AND PRECIP WILL MOVE OUT...AND LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

GENERALLY MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON THU AND FRI
AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EWD ALONG THE CNDN BORDER AND TRANSITORY
UPPER RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. THERE COULD BE A FEW
-SHRA ACRS FAR NWRN SD THU MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS IN. VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGN THU DUE TO A TIGHT SFC PRESS GRAD.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONG UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF/GFS/GEM ALL AGREE IN SHOWING A VIGOROUS
UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES SAT/EARLY SUN AND INTO
THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS SUN/MON. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH LATEST THERMAL PROFILES BOOSTING
CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPS SHOULD BECOME QUITE COLD...20 DEGREES OR MORE
BELOW AVERAGE FOR HIGH TEMPS. THIS COULD LEAD TO ACCUMULATING
SNOW...MOST LIKELY OVER THE BLACK HILLS...BUT POSSIBLY ON THE PLAINS
AS WELL. AT THIS TIME IT REMAINS MUCH TO EARLY TO KNOW HOW MUCH SNOW
MIGHT ACCUMULATE AS THAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
TRACK...STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE A FEW HIGH BASED
SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS EVENING CONTAINING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-
     013-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10







000
FXUS65 KRIW 222005
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
205 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

SHOWERS ALREADY FORMING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND EVEN CENTRAL PORTIONS
WITH A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE SW BY NOON. IN BETWEEN THIS
FIRST SHORTWAVE AND OUR MAIN SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT IS A CLEAR SLOT
OVER ERN ID THAT IS ALREADY FILLING WITH SOME DEVELOPING CONVECTION.
MORNING FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MODEST CAPE IN THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY THE NW WITH 400-700 J/KG POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE IN THE FIRST COUPLE KM TO GET SOME
STRONGER CELLS FIRING. WILL KEEP OUR SVR WORDING IN THE FAR W AND NW
THROUGH 02Z FOR THIS POTENTIAL. HIGHEST RISK IS WIND DAMAGE BUT A
COUPLE CELLS COULD PRODUCE SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...THERE IS ALSO SOME CAPE IN THE FORECAST SOUNDING WITH
200-400 J/KG IN SPOT. SO IDEA OF AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS IS STILL GOOD THERE. OTHERWISE...WINDY TO
VERY WINDY WITH STILL SOME POTENTIAL OF HIGH WINDS MAINLY THIS
EVENING ALONG THE EAST SLOPE OF THE WIND RIVER MTNS AND LANDER
FOOTHILLS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND STRONG JET ALOFT MOVES IN.
WILL LOOK CLOSELY AT WHETHER WE NEED A HIGH WIND WARNING OR STRONGLY
WORDED SPS. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA WILL ADD TO THE
OVERALL AMBIENT GRADIENT FLOW SIMILAR TO A COUPLE DAYS AGO. THE WIND
RIVER BASIN UP TO DUBOIS WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES AND BLASTS THROUGH. TIMING IS LATER THAN OPTIMUM SO THAT
MAY HELP BUT STILL IT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED. AFTER THE INITIAL BLAST
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT WEST...THE SNOW LEVEL WILL LOWER
FROM 10K FEET TO THE VALLEY FLOOR BY MIDNIGHT WITH OFF AND ON SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. EAST OF THE DIVIDE...IT WILL BE
20-25 DEGREES COOLER WITH STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND AND A FEW
SHOWERS AROUND...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND UP NORTH. A
BETTER CHANCE IN THE FAR NORTH WITH THE SWD MOVING FRONT IN THE
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE SHOULD BE A GRADUAL WANING IN ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
TROUGH AXIS MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD. WE
STILL HAVE SOME NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH CAN NOT BE TRUSTED...ESPECIALLY
THIS YEAR. ALSO...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING SOME 50 KNOT
WINDS AT 700 MILLIBARS SO THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL
HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS. WIND SHOULD DECREASE LATER AT NIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY.

WE SHOULD THEN ENTER A LULL IN THE WEATHER AS SOME FLAT...SHORT WAVE
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE STATE. THERE WILL STILL BE A BIT OF ENERGY
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE SO WE HAVE MAINTAINED SOME POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...ANY AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. ALL MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER EAST OF THE
DIVIDE SO WE REMOVED POPS FROM MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
WE STILL EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR MANY AREAS AS WELL ALTHOUGH
NOT AS WINDY AS THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REBOUND CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND RISING
THICKNESSES.

THE BREAK IS EXPECTED TO BE A SHORT ONE HOWEVER AS THE NEXT PACIFIC
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME
SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION  SO
MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE TIMING AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD INTO WESTERN AREAS ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
LEVELS RUNNING AROUND 8000 TO 9000 FEET. MEANWHILE...AREAS EAST OF
THE DIVIDE SHOULD HAVE ONE MORE DRY DAY WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW
KEEPING THINGS DRY. THIS SHOULD ALSO KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THAT DAY AS WELL.

PRECIPITATION THEN BEGINS TO SPREAD EAST OF THE DIVIDE INITIALLY ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE BEST FORCING ARRIVES.
MEANWHILE...WEST OF THE DIVIDE IT STILL LOOKS FAIRLY UNSETTLED WITH
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE VALLEYS
WITH SNOW LEVELS INITIALLY RUNNING AROUND 8000 FEET THEN FALLING TO
THE VALLEY FLOORS AT NIGHT. THERE APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN THIS FAR
OUT.

THEN LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS EAST OF THE ROCK MOUNTAINS AND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER STILL LOOKS TO HANG
AROUND THROUGH SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS FOR THE VALLEYS...AGAIN STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY. ONE
THING THAT IS CERTAIN IS THAT THE EXTENDED GFS MOS GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES ARE WAY TOO WARM. AGAIN...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO
CONTINUITY. THE MODELS THEN GO SPLITS VILLE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE EUROPEAN KEEPING THINGS UNSETTLED AND GFS DRYING THINGS OUT.
WITH THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...WE LEFT CONTINUITY ALONE.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT EXCEPT DURING PASSING
SHOWERS AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT A STRONG AND GUSTY WIND AT
MOST TERMINAL SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
EAST OF THE DIVIDE BETWEEN 05Z AND 10Z WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE
WEST. A STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL BLOW AT MOST TERMINAL
SITES ON WEDNESDAY. SEE INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL SITES FOR MORE DETAILS.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 03Z. MOST TERMINAL SITES WILL HAVE A STRONG
AND GUSTY WIND. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WEST MAY
BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH AND HAIL. LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING WITH DEVELOPING MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WEST BETWEEN 00Z AND 05Z WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
USHER IN COLDER AIR WITH RAIN SHOWERS TURNING TO SNOW SHOWERS. THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS. AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WEST THE WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST AND WILL BE GUSTY. IT WILL REMAIN
WINDY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WEST WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING
MUCH OF THE DAY. SEE INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL SITES FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...HAZARDOUS BURNING CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH STRONG WINDS...SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MUCH MORE NUMEROUS WEST OF THE DIVIDE WITH
MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE DIVIDE. RH`S IN
THE TEENS AND 20S COMBINED WITH THE VERY STRONG WIND WILL KEEP THE
RISK OF ANY FIRES GETTING OUT OF CONTROL RATHER HIGH IF THEY OCCUR
EAST OF THE DIVIDE ESPECIALLY. IT WILL CONTINUE VERY WINDY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN TUESDAY
BUT STILL RATHER DRY EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH MIN RH`S IN THE TEENS
AND 20S.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 AM MDT WEDNESDAY WYZ018.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKRBAC
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...SKRBAC
FIRE WEATHER...SKRBAC








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