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000
FXUS65 KCYS 312147
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
347 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

PRETTY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. MAIN CONCERN
THIS EVENING WILL BE THE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. STILL GETTING A FEW GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE...MAINLY OVER THE PINE RIDGE. WILL
CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 01Z. IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY
THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE ELEVATED PINE RIDGE AS BOTH
THE GFS AND NAM INDICATE A LLVL JET DEVELOPING AROUND 850MB AT CDR.
PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR OVER WY ON SAT IN ADVANCE OF LARGE SCALE
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. WITH GOOD WARM ADVECTION
TAKING PLACE...HIGHS WILL BE A 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. IT
WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS WINDY OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES.

UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE CWA BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT ON SAT
NIGHT WITH ONE PIECE OF ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO IDAHO
AND THE OTHER PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA. WITH A SFC LOW ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY ON SAT NIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGHER
WIND GUSTS (45-55 MPH) IN THE ARLINGTON AREA BY SUNRISE SUNDAY AS
THE MODELS SHOW 700MB SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 40 KTS. ONE MORE
MILD DAY ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO
PUSH ACROSS THE CWA ON SUN NIGHT. THE ECMWF SHOWS MUCH BETTER
PRECIP CHANCES IN AREAS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER FOR LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING COMPARED TO THE DRIER GFS...ALTHOUGH IT
APPEARS THE BEST FORCING IS STILL OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. WILL SHOW
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. POST FRONTAL TEMPS WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

BROAD UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS GRADUALLY EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA ON MONDAY WITH A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PUSHING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD PUSH EAST OF OUR AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY...WITH A
BRIEF BUT COLDER AIRMASS MOVING IN. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE
SOME 20 DEGREES COLDER IN COMPARISON TO THE PREVIOUS DAYS. THE
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL VALUES WILL GRADUALLY WARM A BIT BY MIDWEEK AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW GOES MORE WESTERLY AND DOWNSLOPE. TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING LOOKS TO BE OUR WINDIEST PERIOD IN THE EXTENDED
RANGE...PARTICULARLY IN OUR USUAL PROBLEM AREAS LIKE
BORDEAUX...ARLINGTON AND ELK MOUNTAIN WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND
A LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS TIGHTENS UP. RIGHT NOW LOOKING LIKE WINDS
COULD GUST UP TO AROUND 45 MPH IN THE USUAL WINDIER AREAS LATE
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS DRY AND OTHERWISE UNEVENTFUL
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

SHALLOW LOW CLOUD DECK HAS NEARLY ERODED OVER THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...AND EXPECT VFR CATEGORY AT ALL FORECAST SITES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE RAPIDLY
SHIFTING EAST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME LEE SIDE TROUGHING EXPECTED
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE
RATHER BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR
CHEYENNE...AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA FORECAST SITES...DIMINISHING A
BIT BY LATE EVENING AS THE LEE SIDE TROUGH BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED RELAXING THE GRADIENT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MILD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH MINIMUM
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE IN AREAS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ002-003-095-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...ZF



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000
FXUS65 KRIW 312040
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
240 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

A FAST MOVING PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NEVADA AND
WESTERN IDAHO WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING
SATURDAY.  AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE
BRINGING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THROUGH THE WIND CORRIDOR FROM ROCK SPRINGS
TO CASPER.  OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH MAINLY SNOW
ABOVE 8500 FEET. LOCAL SNOWFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THE FAR WEST MOUNTAINS.  IN THE AFTERNOON THE AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED
IN THE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IN THE UPCOMING PRECIPITATION EVENT IN
THE WEST STILL LOOKS TO FALL BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z ON SUNDAY. DURING
THIS TIME THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME LIFT FROM THE
APPROACHING FRONT AND SOME UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS FROM THE LEFT FRONT
QUAD OF A JET STREAK WILL BRING THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION. WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTING IN...SNOW LEVELS SHOULD FALL TO THE VALLEY FLOORS
AS WE HEAD TOWARD MIDNIGHT. AS FOR AMOUNTS...THERE COULD BE SOME
ADVISORY LEVEL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME THESE LOOK TO BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. STILL SOME TIME TO DETERMINE IF
HIGHLIGHTS ARE WARRANTED. THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD END
AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH UPSLOPE FLOW SOME
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE LATE AT NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS WELL.
MEANWHILE...EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ALL THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE BEST LIFT MOVING INTO MONTANA.
AS A RESULT WE TRIMMED POPS A BIT WITH SLIGHT CHANCES REMAINING
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT BEFORE LESSENING LATER AT NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. THE BIG
CHANGE EAST OF THE DIVIDE WILL BE TEMPERATURES WILL SUNDAY RUNNING
10 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY. WITH FLOW GOING NORTHWEST
SUNDAY NIGHT...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THOSE PAIN IN THE NECK
SNOW BANDS THAT LIKE TO THROW A MONKEY WRENCH INTO THE FORECAST. IT
IS WAY TO EARLY TO PINPOINT THEM...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

BY MONDAY...THE FRONT AND ENERGY WILL BE AWAY TO THE EAST. THE
EUROPEAN MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW A BIT OF ENERGY MOVING NORTHWARD
AND SCRAPING THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
WITH A BIT OF QPF. THE AMERICAN MODELS HAVE NOTHING SO WE WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY AT THIS POINT. ELSEWHERE...SOME WEAK RIDGING
SHOULD HELP TO SHUT OFF ANY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST. IT WILL BE A
CHILLY DAY HOWEVER WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. ON TUESDAY...THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
NORTHWESTERN WYOMING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH NOT A
LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. MEANWHILE...THE EUROPEAN IS MUCH DRIER
AND BUILDS RIDGING MORE STRONGLY OVER THE AREA AND KEEPS THE
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WE KEPT SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A BIG EVENT. AREAS EAST OF THE
DIVIDE SHOULD STAY DRY DUE TO A DOWNSLOPING BREEZE. A DRYING AND
WARMING TREND WILL THEN BE THE RULE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND BRINGS A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE MODELS DO HAVE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
BRUSHING BY TO THE NORTH AND WEST BUT WITH TIMING ALL OVER THE
PLACE...WE KEPT THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

THE TAF AIRPORTS WILL GENERALLY HAVE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH KCOD AND SURROUNDING SITES COULD
SEE MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP AROUND 00Z. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BY 15Z
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP FROM KRKS TO KCPR TO KBYG TONIGHT. THIS STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL THEN BRING STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS...AND AREAS OF LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR...TO MANY AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...WITH 30-40
KNOT GUSTS POSSIBLE...SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SOME
AIRPORTS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ABOVE 9000
FEET...COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...SATURDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON...AS SNOW SHOWERS PUSH IN.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

THE AIRPORTS WILL HAVE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 10Z
SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE AFTER 10Z...OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS.
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS...AND SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 8000 FEET...WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS BETWEEN 12Z-18Z.
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS...AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW...THEN INCREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF THE DIVIDE...WITH A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS KRKS
AND SOUTHERN WYOMING TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
SATURDAY. SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING...INCLUDING KBPI AND KPNA...COULD
ALSO SEE GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP...MAINLY AFTER 18Z SATURDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A FAST MOVING PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NEVADA AND
WESTERN IDAHO WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT WILL INCREASE BRINGING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THROUGH THE WIND CORRIDOR FROM
ROCK SPRINGS TO CASPER. OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SOME MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH MAINLY
SNOW ABOVE 8500 FEET. IN THE AFTERNOON THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO
BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...ANGLIN
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER









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000
FXUS63 KUNR 312029
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
229 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED
ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES. SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA..
TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM ARE IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS.

TONIGHT...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT
STILL REMAIN BREEZY AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S
ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AND INTO THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING.

UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MOST AREAS FOR
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TOWARD NORTH-
CENTRAL SD TO THE MID 70S OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING AND MUCH OF THE
FAR SOUTHWESTERN SD PLAINS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED...WITH
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHEAST WY AND
SOUTHWEST SD...WITH BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST WY
SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS
THROUGH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SPLITTING UPPER TROF SLIDES THROUGH THE PLAINS
SUNDAY/MONDAY...WITH BEST FORCING NORTHWEST AND SOUTH OF FORECAST
AREA. MAY BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT EXPECTED FOR FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS DIVERGE FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK...WITH ECMWF HINTING AT MORE RIDGING ALOFT VERSUS
COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW FROM GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-
     026-031-032-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7







000
FXUS65 KCYS 311749 CCA
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1147 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

MAIN FORECAST IMPACT TODAY WILL BE MORNING FOG. 09Z SATELLITE FOG
PRODUCT SHOWS WELL DEFINED AREA OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG EXTENDING FROM
NORTHEAST WY THRU AREAS NORTH OF THE PINE RIDGE...SOUTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS IN LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AS 1040MB SFC HIGH
SETTLES INTO THE DAKOTAS. LLVL INVERSION IS STEEPENED BY AN
APPROACHING UPSTREAM RIDGE. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE WITHIN 2-3F
ACROSS THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND AREAS IN SE WY ALONG THE
STATELINE. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE AREA OF FOG PROGRESSING WESTWARD
INTO THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THRU DAYBREAK AND INTO THE SE
WYOMING PLAINS SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THIS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN EARLY MORNING DEW POINT DEPRESSION TRENDS. FOG LOOKS TO BE
FAIRLY PATCHY AT THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE IN
SOME AREAS. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS FOG /LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING
ACROSS LARAMIE COUNTY THE LONGEST THIS MORNING NOT DISSIPATING
UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...A DRY DAY AHEAD AS RIDGE AXIS
PASSES THRU THE CWFA. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THO AS WELL
AS MOISTURE ABOVE H5 BUMPS INTO THE RIDGE AXIS. THE OTHER CONCERN
TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS IN THE NRN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...SPECIFICALLY NR THE PINE RIDGE. ALL OUTPUT IS
POINT TO MARGINAL WINDS WITH A LOCAL MAXIMUM OVR THE PINE RIDGE.
MODELS OFTEN UNDERDO WIND SPEEDS FOR THIS AREA IN STRONG SSE SFC
FLOW. SO...WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR SIOUX...DAWES...AND BOX
BUTTE COUNTIES EFFECTIVE 16Z-01Z TODAY.

FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE WRN CONUS TROUGH FOR
SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS THE
LEE-SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND AMPLIFIES. HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY WILL
RISE WELL INTO THE 60S WITH LOW 70S ACROSS E-C WY AND PORTIONS OF
THE WRN NE PANHANDLE. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...SOUTHWEST AT
20 TO 30 MPH WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20
MPH OUT ON THE ERN PLAINS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SPLIT THE ENERGY OF THE NEXT TROUGH ON
SUNDAY...WITH ONE PIECE EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS MONTANA WHILE THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS MEANS A LATER
ARRIVAL IN PRECIP CHANCES...WHICH WILL LIKELY NOW HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR AFTER. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN OROGRAPHICALLY
FAVORED AREAS OF THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES. THICKER CLOUD
CANOPY AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL YIELD A COOLER DAY
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS NR 50 WEST AND IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S
EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKY
MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE SPLIT FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION LATE THIS WEEK...AND IT APPEARS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ENERGY AND UPPER JET WILL IMPACT SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA AS THE NORTHERN PORTION WILL BE
EJECTED NORTHEAST INTO MONTANA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW ALONG I80.
MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...WITH MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF UNTIL MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE...WITH THE GFS AND NAM A CLOSE SECOND...SHOWING DECENT
QPF AMOUNTS AS A 100KT JET DEVELOPS AND PUSHES NORTHWARD OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. EVEN WITH THE INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN
INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS REGARDING TIMING BETWEEN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...CURRENT 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO
INCREASED POP BETWEEN 30 TO 50 PERCENT ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD TO THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT RAIN TO MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO SNOW DOWN TO 5500 FEET. HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME SINCE MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL OCCUR DURING
THE DAY...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS SOME SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE LIKELY. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 4O TO
45 DEGREES...AND MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER...SO THESE VALUES
MAY BE A LITTLE TOO HIGH. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR SETTLES
OVER THE REGION...BUT WITH SOME CLOUD COVER OVER THE
AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY NOT LOWER ANY COLDER THAN 20 IN
MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT FURTHER TO THE
NORTH BUT MAY SEE MODERATE QPF VALUES AROUND 0.50 INCHES ALONG THE
I80 CORRIDOR WHERE THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE LOCATED.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION LATE MONDAY
AND INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND COOL TEMPERATURES. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO
NEAR NORMAL...AND GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S. THE ONLY MINOR
CONCERN IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THE GEM IS THE ONLY MODEL INDICATING A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN OUR CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES. HOWEVER...THE GEM
CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER SO WILL NOT ADJUST THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY TOO MUCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

SHALLOW LOW CLOUD DECK HAS NEARLY ERODED OVER THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...AND EXPECT VFR CATEGORY AT ALL FORECAST SITES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE RAPIDLY
SHIFTING EAST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME LEE SIDE TROUGHING EXPECTED
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE
RATHER BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR
CHEYENNE...AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA FORECAST SITES...DIMINISHING A
BIT BY LATE EVENING AS THE LEE SIDE TROUGH BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED RELAXING THE GRADIENT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

ALTHOUGH A DRY DAY...A CLOUDY OR FOGGY START IN MANY AREAS EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT AND
BURN OFF...LIKELY NOT UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING OR AROUND MIDDAY.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH COMMON ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS OVER
CARBON/ALBANY COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. SATURDAY WILL OFFER THE
WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES BY LATE SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ002-003-095-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAH
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...CAH




000
FXUS65 KCYS 311747 AAA
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1147 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

MAIN FORECAST IMPACT TODAY WILL BE MORNING FOG. 09Z SATELLITE FOG
PRODUCT SHOWS WELL DEFINED AREA OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG EXTENDING FROM
NORTHEAST WY THRU AREAS NORTH OF THE PINE RIDGE...SOUTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS IN LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AS 1040MB SFC HIGH
SETTLES INTO THE DAKOTAS. LLVL INVERSION IS STEEPENED BY AN
APPROACHING UPSTREAM RIDGE. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE WITHIN 2-3F
ACROSS THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND AREAS IN SE WY ALONG THE
STATELINE. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE AREA OF FOG PROGRESSING WESTWARD
INTO THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THRU DAYBREAK AND INTO THE SE
WYOMING PLAINS SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THIS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN EARLY MORNING DEW POINT DEPRESSION TRENDS. FOG LOOKS TO BE
FAIRLY PATCHY AT THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE IN
SOME AREAS. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS FOG /LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING
ACROSS LARAMIE COUNTY THE LONGEST THIS MORNING NOT DISSIPATING
UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...A DRY DAY AHEAD AS RIDGE AXIS
PASSES THRU THE CWFA. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THO AS WELL
AS MOISTURE ABOVE H5 BUMPS INTO THE RIDGE AXIS. THE OTHER CONCERN
TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS IN THE NRN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...SPECIFICALLY NR THE PINE RIDGE. ALL OUTPUT IS
POINT TO MARGINAL WINDS WITH A LOCAL MAXIMUM OVR THE PINE RIDGE.
MODELS OFTEN UNDERDO WIND SPEEDS FOR THIS AREA IN STRONG SSE SFC
FLOW. SO...WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR SIOUX...DAWES...AND BOX
BUTTE COUNTIES EFFECTIVE 16Z-01Z TODAY.

FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE WRN CONUS TROUGH FOR
SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS THE
LEE-SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND AMPLIFIES. HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY WILL
RISE WELL INTO THE 60S WITH LOW 70S ACROSS E-C WY AND PORTIONS OF
THE WRN NE PANHANDLE. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...SOUTHWEST AT
20 TO 30 MPH WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20
MPH OUT ON THE ERN PLAINS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SPLIT THE ENERGY OF THE NEXT TROUGH ON
SUNDAY...WITH ONE PIECE EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS MONTANA WHILE THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS MEANS A LATER
ARRIVAL IN PRECIP CHANCES...WHICH WILL LIKELY NOW HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR AFTER. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN OROGRAPHICALLY
FAVORED AREAS OF THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES. THICKER CLOUD
CANOPY AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL YIELD A COOLER DAY
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS NR 50 WEST AND IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S
EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKY
MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE SPLIT FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION LATE THIS WEEK...AND IT APPEARS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ENERGY AND UPPER JET WILL IMPACT SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA AS THE NORTHERN PORTION WILL BE
EJECTED NORTHEAST INTO MONTANA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW ALONG I80.
MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...WITH MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF UNTIL MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE...WITH THE GFS AND NAM A CLOSE SECOND...SHOWING DECENT
QPF AMOUNTS AS A 100KT JET DEVELOPS AND PUSHES NORTHWARD OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. EVEN WITH THE INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN
INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS REGARDING TIMING BETWEEN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...CURRENT 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO
INCREASED POP BETWEEN 30 TO 50 PERCENT ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD TO THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT RAIN TO MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO SNOW DOWN TO 5500 FEET. HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME SINCE MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL OCCUR DURING
THE DAY...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS SOME SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE LIKELY. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 4O TO
45 DEGREES...AND MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER...SO THESE VALUES
MAY BE A LITTLE TOO HIGH. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR SETTLES
OVER THE REGION...BUT WITH SOME CLOUD COVER OVER THE
AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY NOT LOWER ANY COLDER THAN 20 IN
MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT FURTHER TO THE
NORTH BUT MAY SEE MODERATE QPF VALUES AROUND 0.50 INCHES ALONG THE
I80 CORRIDOR WHERE THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE LOCATED.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION LATE MONDAY
AND INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND COOL TEMPERATURES. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO
NEAR NORMAL...AND GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S. THE ONLY MINOR
CONCERN IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THE GEM IS THE ONLY MODEL INDICATING A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN OUR CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES. HOWEVER...THE GEM
CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER SO WILL NOT ADJUST THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY TOO MUCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

SHALLOW LOW CLOUD DECK HAS NEARLY ERODED OVER THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...AND EXPECT VFR CATEGORY AT ALL FORECAST SITES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE RAPIDLY
SHIFTING EAST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME LEE SIDE TROUGHING
EXPECTED EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. WE
SHOULD SEE RATHER BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING FOR CHEYENNE...AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA FORECAST
SITES...DIMINISHING A BIT BY LATE EVENING AS THE LEE SIDE TROUGH
BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED RELAXING THE GRADIENT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

ALTHOUGH A DRY DAY...A CLOUDY OR FOGGY START IN MANY AREAS EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT AND
BURN OFF...LIKELY NOT UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING OR AROUND MIDDAY.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH COMMON ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS OVER
CARBON/ALBANY COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. SATURDAY WILL OFFER THE
WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES BY LATE SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ002-003-095-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAH
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...CAH




000
FXUS65 KRIW 311739
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1139 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY
ALLOWING THE STEERING FLOW TO BACK MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST USHERING
IN WARMER AIR WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE
REACHING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TODAY AND IN THE 60S WEST.
THE EASTERN CWA WILL EKE OUT ANOTHER NICE DAY BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THE CIRCULATION NOW OFF
THE PACIFIC COAST OUT AT 45N/135W IS DRAWING SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC
MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE PAC NW OUT AHEAD OF IT WITH LIGHTNING
BREAKING OUT OVER OREGON WITHIN THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE ENERGY
FROM THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL SPLIT BY SATURDAY AS IT ENCOUNTERS
THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE MODELS SEEM MORE
REALISTIC WITH THIS APPROACH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS THAT DID NOT SHOW
AS MUCH OF A SPLIT. BOTH THE EURO AND THE GFS SHOW THIS SPLIT
TAKING PLACE. WE WILL FOCUS OUR ATTENTION ON THE CLOSER NORTHERN
PIECE OF ENERGY. SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL INCREASE TODAY FROM RKS TO
CPR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM. THE TROUGH
WILL MAKE LANDFALL BY SATURDAY. AS IT DOES...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE WEST AND SHOWERS ALONG WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BREAK OUT IN WESTERN WY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
DIVIDE WITH SHOWERS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
SATURDAY. ON SATURDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM CIRCULATION WILL CLOSE
OFF OVER NEVADA/OREGON. THIS H5 LOW WILL OPEN BUT REMAIN A FOCUSED
AREA OF VORTICITY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS IDAHO AND INTO MONTANA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. THE H7 LOW WILL TAKE A SIMILAR
TRACK WITH THE SFC LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS NW WY EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING. THIS LOW WILL HAVE A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED WARM
AND COLD FRONT AND A RESULTING WELL DEVELOPED COMMA CLOUD. MOST OF
THE MORE WIDESPREAD DYNAMICS WILL COME TOGETHER SATURDAY NIGHT.
LEFT FRONT QUAD DYNAMICS WILL ADD TO THE LIFT SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE JET SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. AS THIS TROUGH NEARS...SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM RKS TO CPR SATURDAY. WHEN THE
ASCT COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE PACIFIC SURFACE LOW...MANY OTHER
AREAS WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEED AS THE WINDS VEER
SATURDAY EVENING WITH SOME AREAS SEEING AN 8MB 3 HOURLY SFC
PRESSURE RISE. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO THE VALLEY FLOORS SATURDAY
NIGHT OUT WEST. AS THE PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST INTO
MONTANA...SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT IN NORTHERN WY AND
WILL CONTINUE IN WESTERN WY SUNDAY FROM THE LIFT MORE DIRECTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. THE HEAVIEST MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY IN MT WHERE THE BEST WRAP
AROUND IS ENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE LOCATED. AS THIS WEATHER SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM US TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT THE
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH. AFTER ALL IS SAID AND DONE...2 TO 4 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS BY LATE SUNDAY AND
4 TO 8 INCHES IN THE SURROUNDING MOUNTAINS. ONLY 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AS FAR AS ANY
POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT SNOW BANDING GOES EAST OF THE DIVIDE...IT
NOW APPEARS THAT THE POST FRONTAL H7 NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE TOO
WEAK TO SUPPORT ANY WITH THE MAIN ENERGY TO DRIVE THESE TYPE OF
SNOW SHOWERS TO FAR NORTH,

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

WEAK BUT CHILLY NW FLOW STARTS THE PERIOD AS THE WEEKEND TROUGH
LINGERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY BUT WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
SPLIT BETWEEN A LOW NEAR FAR NRN ND AND ANOTHER OVER THE DESERT SW.
JUST SOME CHILLY AIR LEFT BEHIND WITH MAYBE A LITTLE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IN THE MTNS AND SE FRINGES TO START THE PERIOD. MONDAY
SHOULD BE THE COLDEST DAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THE COLDEST NIGHT BEFORE
WE BEGIN ANOTHER WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER LOW AND COLD
AIR BETWEEN ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN WORK TOGETHER TO DEVELOP
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT PUMPS UP
THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST. HEIGHTS RISE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES PEAK ON THURSDAY. HIGHS GENERALLY
START OUT MONDAY IN THE 40S WITH MAINLY 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
THEN WARM ON AVERAGE 5 TO 8 DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IF WE
GET ENOUGH MIXING...THURSDAY COULD BE EVEN WARMER WITH BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOWING H7 TEMPERATURES BETWEEN +6 TO +10 EAST OF THE
DIVIDE. A SHORTWAVE THEN ROTATES THROUGH THE ERN PACIFIC TROUGH AND
THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH TO BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. FOR NOW...MAINLY CONFINING POPS TO THE MTNS OF
THE WEST AND NORTH WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE NORTH. NOT A LOT OF PCPN POTENTIAL THROUGH THE WEEK BUT THERE
MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FLOW AND WEAK DISTURBANCES/MOISTURE IN THE NW
FLOW TO ALLOW SOME VERY LIGHT MTN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AT
TIMES IN THE NW MTNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AN INCREASE IN WINDS AT
TIMES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NORMALLY WINDY AREAS WITH EACH PASSING
RIPPLE BUT NOTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED. WE DO GET A LITTLE
BETTER GRADIENT ON THE GFS BY THURSDAY AND IF THIS DOES OCCUR THEN
LIKE MENTIONED ABOVE TEMPERATURES COULD SOAR EAST OF THE DIVIDE TO
RECORD TERRITORY. TOO EARLY YET TO GO THAT WARM BUT JUST SOMETHING
TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

THE AIRPORTS WILL HAVE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE WITH INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ABOVE 9000 FEET WITH MAINLY
SNOW SHOWERS MOVING IN.  OVER AND NEAR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS
STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH AREAS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

THE AIRPORTS WILL HAVE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 10Z
SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE WITH INCREASING MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS 8000 FEET WITH
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS MOVING IN. OVER THE MOUNTAINS STRONG RIDGE TOP
WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH AREAS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING AND BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE
WILL DEVELOP TODAY FROM THE RED DESERT THROUGH NATRONA AND
JOHNSON COUNTIES. THE NEXT POTENTIAL ROUND OF PRECIPITATION MAY
BE FOUND BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES WESTERN WYOMING.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON







000
FXUS63 KUNR 311718
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1118 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

UPPER LEVELS HAVE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. SKIES
ARE CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH DECK OF LOW STRATUS/FOG
ACROSS FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 20S AND 30S WITH BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS.

STRATUS/FOG DECK WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BREAK UP...WITH THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN FOOTHILLS SEEING THE LATEST IMPROVEMENT. AS
MORE SUN FILTERS THROUGH...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BEGIN TO MIX
BETTER...AND SOUTH WINDS SHOULD PICK UP QUITE A BIT BY NOON. A
WIND ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE
ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN ND.
COLDER AIR HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE SCALE TROF OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CONUS...A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES REGION...AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. MOIST...UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW
LEVELS IS BRINGING A LARGE BAND OF STRATUS INTO THE AREA...WITH
SOME FOG DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN SD AND NORTHEAST WY. TEMPS ARE
MOSTLY IN THE 30S OVER CLOUD COVERED AREAS...WITH SOME 20S WHERE
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR.

THE GENERALLY PLEASANT WEATHER OF LATE WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NOVEMBER AS RIDGING PATTERN MOSTLY STAYS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION.
AFTER A GLOOMY START THIS MORNING IN MANY AREAS...WITH SOME AREAS OF
FOG...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE MID AND LATE MORNING HOURS
AS CLOUDS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...FAR EASTERN MT...AND
NORTHEASTERN WY WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON OVER
MOST OF THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS...WITH SOME GUSTS
OF 45 TO 50 MPH EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TOWARD
SUNSET...BUT REMAIN BREEZY INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN MANY AREAS. FOR
HALLOWEEN ACTIVITIES THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE MOSTLY
IN THE 40S...WITH 30S OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL SD.
SOME WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
30S.

UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MOST AREAS FOR
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TOWARD CENTRAL SD
TO THE LOWER 70S OVER NORTHEAST WY AND MUCH OF THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
SD PLAINS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED...WITH SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTHWEST SD...WITH GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST WY SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. THE
MAIN UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY AND WILL
HEAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO SASKATCHEWAN AS A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT
SWINGS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. MEANWHILE THE SECONDARY LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. DUE
TO THE SPLIT FLOW...THE MAIN FORCING WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT WITH THE EXPECTED
PATH OF THE NORTHERN UPPER LOW...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL BE LOCATED
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA....SO HAVE REMOVED THE LOW POPS
THAT WERE PREVIOUSLY IN THE FORECAST OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY IN THE FRONTAL ZONE TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER PARTS OF SWRN AND SCNTRL SD ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. DRY
AND COOLER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

LCL MVFR/IFR CIGS ALONG EAST SIDE OF BLACK HILLS WILL DISSIPATE
RAPIDLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-
     026-031-032-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...7







000
FXUS63 KUNR 311607
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1007 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

UPPER LEVELS HAVE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. SKIES
ARE CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH DECK OF LOW STRATUS/FOG
ACROSS FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 20S AND 30S WITH BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS.

STRATUS/FOG DECK WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BREAK UP...WITH THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN FOOTHILLS SEEING THE LATEST IMPROVEMENT. AS
MORE SUN FILTERS THROUGH...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BEGIN TO MIX
BETTER...AND SOUTH WINDS SHOULD PICK UP QUITE A BIT BY NOON. A
WIND ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE
ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN ND.
COLDER AIR HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE SCALE TROF OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CONUS...A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES REGION...AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. MOIST...UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW
LEVELS IS BRINGING A LARGE BAND OF STRATUS INTO THE AREA...WITH
SOME FOG DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN SD AND NORTHEAST WY. TEMPS ARE
MOSTLY IN THE 30S OVER CLOUD COVERED AREAS...WITH SOME 20S WHERE
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR.

THE GENERALLY PLEASANT WEATHER OF LATE WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NOVEMBER AS RIDGING PATTERN MOSTLY STAYS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION.
AFTER A GLOOMY START THIS MORNING IN MANY AREAS...WITH SOME AREAS OF
FOG...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE MID AND LATE MORNING HOURS
AS CLOUDS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...FAR EASTERN MT...AND
NORTHEASTERN WY WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON OVER
MOST OF THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS...WITH SOME GUSTS
OF 45 TO 50 MPH EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TOWARD
SUNSET...BUT REMAIN BREEZY INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN MANY AREAS. FOR
HALLOWEEN ACTIVITIES THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE MOSTLY
IN THE 40S...WITH 30S OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL SD.
SOME WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
30S.

UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MOST AREAS FOR
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TOWARD CENTRAL SD
TO THE LOWER 70S OVER NORTHEAST WY AND MUCH OF THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
SD PLAINS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED...WITH SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTHWEST SD...WITH GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST WY SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. THE
MAIN UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY AND WILL
HEAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO SASKATCHEWAN AS A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT
SWINGS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. MEANWHILE THE SECONDARY LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. DUE
TO THE SPLIT FLOW...THE MAIN FORCING WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT WITH THE EXPECTED
PATH OF THE NORTHERN UPPER LOW...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL BE LOCATED
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA....SO HAVE REMOVED THE LOW POPS
THAT WERE PREVIOUSLY IN THE FORECAST OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY IN THE FRONTAL ZONE TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER PARTS OF SWRN AND SCNTRL SD ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. DRY
AND COOLER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS MORNING. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-
     026-031-032-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10







000
FXUS65 KCYS 311149
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
550 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

MAIN FORECAST IMPACT TODAY WILL BE MORNING FOG. 09Z SATELLITE FOG
PRODUCT SHOWS WELL DEFINED AREA OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG EXTENDING FROM
NORTHEAST WY THRU AREAS NORTH OF THE PINE RIDGE...SOUTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS IN LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AS 1040MB SFC HIGH
SETTLES INTO THE DAKOTAS. LLVL INVERSION IS STEEPENED BY AN
APPROACHING UPSTREAM RIDGE. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE WITHIN 2-3F
ACROSS THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND AREAS IN SE WY ALONG THE
STATELINE. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE AREA OF FOG PROGRESSING WESTWARD
INTO THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THRU DAYBREAK AND INTO THE SE
WYOMING PLAINS SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THIS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN EARLY MORNING DEW POINT DEPRESSION TRENDS. FOG LOOKS TO BE
FAIRLY PATCHY AT THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE IN
SOME AREAS. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS FOG /LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING
ACROSS LARAMIE COUNTY THE LONGEST THIS MORNING NOT DISSIPATING
UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...A DRY DAY AHEAD AS RIDGE AXIS
PASSES THRU THE CWFA. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THO AS WELL
AS MOISTURE ABOVE H5 BUMPS INTO THE RIDGE AXIS. THE OTHER CONCERN
TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS IN THE NRN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...SPECIFICALLY NR THE PINE RIDGE. ALL OUTPUT IS
POINT TO MARGINAL WINDS WITH A LOCAL MAXIMUM OVR THE PINE RIDGE.
MODELS OFTEN UNDERDO WIND SPEEDS FOR THIS AREA IN STRONG SSE SFC
FLOW. SO...WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR SIOUX...DAWES...AND BOX
BUTTE COUNTIES EFFECTIVE 16Z-01Z TODAY.

FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE WRN CONUS TROUGH FOR
SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS THE
LEE-SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND AMPLIFIES. HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY WILL
RISE WELL INTO THE 60S WITH LOW 70S ACROSS E-C WY AND PORTIONS OF
THE WRN NE PANHANDLE. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...SOUTHWEST AT
20 TO 30 MPH WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20
MPH OUT ON THE ERN PLAINS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SPLIT THE ENERGY OF THE NEXT TROUGH ON
SUNDAY...WITH ONE PIECE EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS MONTANA WHILE THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS MEANS A LATER
ARRIVAL IN PRECIP CHANCES...WHICH WILL LIKELY NOW HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR AFTER. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN OROGRAPHICALLY
FAVORED AREAS OF THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES. THICKER CLOUD
CANOPY AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL YIELD A COOLER DAY
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS NR 50 WEST AND IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S
EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKY
MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE SPLIT FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION LATE THIS WEEK...AND IT APPEARS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ENERGY AND UPPER JET WILL IMPACT SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA AS THE NORTHERN PORTION WILL BE
EJECTED NORTHEAST INTO MONTANA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW ALONG I80.
MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...WITH MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF UNTIL MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE...WITH THE GFS AND NAM A CLOSE SECOND...SHOWING DECENT
QPF AMOUNTS AS A 100KT JET DEVELOPS AND PUSHES NORTHWARD OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. EVEN WITH THE INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN
INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS REGARDING TIMING BETWEEN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...CURRENT 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO
INCREASED POP BETWEEN 30 TO 50 PERCENT ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD TO THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT RAIN TO MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO SNOW DOWN TO 5500 FEET. HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME SINCE MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL OCCUR DURING
THE DAY...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS SOME SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE LIKELY. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 4O TO
45 DEGREES...AND MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER...SO THESE VALUES
MAY BE A LITTLE TOO HIGH. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR SETTLES
OVER THE REGION...BUT WITH SOME CLOUD COVER OVER THE
AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY NOT LOWER ANY COLDER THAN 20 IN
MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT FURTHER TO THE
NORTH BUT MAY SEE MODERATE QPF VALUES AROUND 0.50 INCHES ALONG THE
I80 CORRIDOR WHERE THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE LOCATED.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION LATE MONDAY
AND INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND COOL TEMPERATURES. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO
NEAR NORMAL...AND GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S. THE ONLY MINOR
CONCERN IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THE GEM IS THE ONLY MODEL INDICATING A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN OUR CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES. HOWEVER...THE GEM
CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER SO WILL NOT ADJUST THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY TOO MUCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH TONIGHT)

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS THIS MORNING...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOW CIGS.
PERIODS OF IFR ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE BY NOON AS SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

ALTHOUGH A DRY DAY...A CLOUDY OR FOGGY START IN MANY AREAS EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT AND
BURN OFF...LIKELY NOT UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING OR AROUND MIDDAY.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH COMMON ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS OVER
CARBON/ALBANY COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. SATURDAY WILL OFFER THE
WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES BY LATE SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THROUGH 7 PM FOR NEZ002-003-095-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAH
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...CAH




000
FXUS65 KCYS 310952
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
352 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

MAIN FORECAST IMPACT TODAY WILL BE MORNING FOG. 09Z SATELLITE FOG
PRODUCT SHOWS WELL DEFINED AREA OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG EXTENDING FROM
NORTHEAST WY THRU AREAS NORTH OF THE PINE RIDGE...SOUTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS IN LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AS 1040MB SFC HIGH
SETTLES INTO THE DAKOTAS. LLVL INVERSION IS STEEPENED BY AN
APPROACHING UPSTREAM RIDGE. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE WITHIN 2-3F
ACROSS THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND AREAS IN SE WY ALONG THE
STATELINE. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE AREA OF FOG PROGRESSING WESTWARD
INTO THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THRU DAYBREAK AND INTO THE SE
WYOMING PLAINS SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THIS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN EARLY MORNING DEW POINT DEPRESSION TRENDS. FOG LOOKS TO BE
FAIRLY PATCHY AT THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE IN
SOME AREAS. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS FOG /LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING
ACROSS LARAMIE COUNTY THE LONGEST THIS MORNING NOT DISSIPATING
UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...A DRY DAY AHEAD AS RIDGE AXIS
PASSES THRU THE CWFA. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THO AS WELL
AS MOISTURE ABOVE H5 BUMPS INTO THE RIDGE AXIS. THE OTHER CONCERN
TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS IN THE NRN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...SPECIFICALLY NR THE PINE RIDGE. ALL OUTPUT IS
POINT TO MARGINAL WINDS WITH A LOCAL MAXIMUM OVR THE PINE RIDGE.
MODELS OFTEN UNDERDO WIND SPEEDS FOR THIS AREA IN STRONG SSE SFC
FLOW. SO...WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR SIOUX...DAWES...AND BOX
BUTTE COUNTIES EFFECTIVE 16Z-01Z TODAY.

FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE WRN CONUS TROUGH FOR
SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS THE
LEE-SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND AMPLIFIES. HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY WILL
RISE WELL INTO THE 60S WITH LOW 70S ACROSS E-C WY AND PORTIONS OF
THE WRN NE PANHANDLE. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...SOUTHWEST AT
20 TO 30 MPH WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20
MPH OUT ON THE ERN PLAINS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SPLIT THE ENERGY OF THE NEXT TROUGH ON
SUNDAY...WITH ONE PIECE EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS MONTANA WHILE THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS MEANS A LATER
ARRIVAL IN PRECIP CHANCES...WHICH WILL LIKELY NOW HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR AFTER. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN OROGRAPHICALLY
FAVORED AREAS OF THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES. THICKER CLOUD
CANOPY AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL YIELD A COOLER DAY
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS NR 50 WEST AND IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S
EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKY
MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE SPLIT FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION LATE THIS WEEK...AND IT APPEARS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ENERGY AND UPPER JET WILL IMPACT SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA AS THE NORTHERN PORTION WILL BE
EJECTED NORTHEAST INTO MONTANA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW ALONG I80.
MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...WITH MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF UNTIL MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE...WITH THE GFS AND NAM A CLOSE SECOND...SHOWING DECENT
QPF AMOUNTS AS A 100KT JET DEVELOPS AND PUSHES NORTHWARD OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. EVEN WITH THE INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN
INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS REGARDING TIMING BETWEEN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...CURRENT 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO
INCREASED POP BETWEEN 30 TO 50 PERCENT ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD TO THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT RAIN TO MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO SNOW DOWN TO 5500 FEET. HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME SINCE MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL OCCUR DURING
THE DAY...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS SOME SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE LIKELY. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 4O TO
45 DEGREES...AND MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER...SO THESE VALUES
MAY BE A LITTLE TOO HIGH. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR SETTLES
OVER THE REGION...BUT WITH SOME CLOUD COVER OVER THE
AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY NOT LOWER ANY COLDER THAN 20 IN
MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT FURTHER TO THE
NORTH BUT MAY SEE MODERATE QPF VALUES AROUND 0.50 INCHES ALONG THE
I80 CORRIDOR WHERE THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE LOCATED.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION LATE MONDAY
AND INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND COOL TEMPERATURES. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO
NEAR NORMAL...AND GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S. THE ONLY MINOR
CONCERN IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THE GEM IS THE ONLY MODEL INDICATING A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN OUR CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES. HOWEVER...THE GEM
CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER SO WILL NOT ADJUST THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY TOO MUCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
THIS WILL PRODUCE UPSLOPE FLOW...EVENTUALLY LEADING TO LOW CLOUDS
AND SOME PATCHY FOG FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE...INCLUDING THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. PERIODS OF IFR ARE
EXPECTED BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FROM
WEST TO EAST MID FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS FRIDAY MORNING PROGRESSES AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

ALTHOUGH A DRY DAY...A CLOUDY OR FOGGY START IN MANY AREAS EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT AND
BURN OFF...LIKELY NOT UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING OR AROUND MIDDAY.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH COMMON ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS OVER
CARBON/ALBANY COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. SATURDAY WILL OFFER THE
WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES BY LATE SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THROUGH 7 PM FOR NEZ002-003-095-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAH
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT/SML
FIRE WEATHER...CAH




000
FXUS65 KCYS 310952
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
352 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

MAIN FORECAST IMPACT TODAY WILL BE MORNING FOG. 09Z SATELLITE FOG
PRODUCT SHOWS WELL DEFINED AREA OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG EXTENDING FROM
NORTHEAST WY THRU AREAS NORTH OF THE PINE RIDGE...SOUTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS IN LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AS 1040MB SFC HIGH
SETTLES INTO THE DAKOTAS. LLVL INVERSION IS STEEPENED BY AN
APPROACHING UPSTREAM RIDGE. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE WITHIN 2-3F
ACROSS THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND AREAS IN SE WY ALONG THE
STATELINE. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE AREA OF FOG PROGRESSING WESTWARD
INTO THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THRU DAYBREAK AND INTO THE SE
WYOMING PLAINS SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THIS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN EARLY MORNING DEW POINT DEPRESSION TRENDS. FOG LOOKS TO BE
FAIRLY PATCHY AT THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE IN
SOME AREAS. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS FOG /LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING
ACROSS LARAMIE COUNTY THE LONGEST THIS MORNING NOT DISSIPATING
UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...A DRY DAY AHEAD AS RIDGE AXIS
PASSES THRU THE CWFA. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THO AS WELL
AS MOISTURE ABOVE H5 BUMPS INTO THE RIDGE AXIS. THE OTHER CONCERN
TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS IN THE NRN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...SPECIFICALLY NR THE PINE RIDGE. ALL OUTPUT IS
POINT TO MARGINAL WINDS WITH A LOCAL MAXIMUM OVR THE PINE RIDGE.
MODELS OFTEN UNDERDO WIND SPEEDS FOR THIS AREA IN STRONG SSE SFC
FLOW. SO...WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR SIOUX...DAWES...AND BOX
BUTTE COUNTIES EFFECTIVE 16Z-01Z TODAY.

FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE WRN CONUS TROUGH FOR
SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS THE
LEE-SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND AMPLIFIES. HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY WILL
RISE WELL INTO THE 60S WITH LOW 70S ACROSS E-C WY AND PORTIONS OF
THE WRN NE PANHANDLE. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...SOUTHWEST AT
20 TO 30 MPH WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20
MPH OUT ON THE ERN PLAINS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SPLIT THE ENERGY OF THE NEXT TROUGH ON
SUNDAY...WITH ONE PIECE EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS MONTANA WHILE THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS MEANS A LATER
ARRIVAL IN PRECIP CHANCES...WHICH WILL LIKELY NOW HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR AFTER. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN OROGRAPHICALLY
FAVORED AREAS OF THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES. THICKER CLOUD
CANOPY AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL YIELD A COOLER DAY
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS NR 50 WEST AND IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S
EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKY
MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE SPLIT FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION LATE THIS WEEK...AND IT APPEARS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ENERGY AND UPPER JET WILL IMPACT SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA AS THE NORTHERN PORTION WILL BE
EJECTED NORTHEAST INTO MONTANA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW ALONG I80.
MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...WITH MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF UNTIL MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE...WITH THE GFS AND NAM A CLOSE SECOND...SHOWING DECENT
QPF AMOUNTS AS A 100KT JET DEVELOPS AND PUSHES NORTHWARD OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. EVEN WITH THE INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN
INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS REGARDING TIMING BETWEEN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...CURRENT 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO
INCREASED POP BETWEEN 30 TO 50 PERCENT ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD TO THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT RAIN TO MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO SNOW DOWN TO 5500 FEET. HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME SINCE MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL OCCUR DURING
THE DAY...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS SOME SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE LIKELY. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 4O TO
45 DEGREES...AND MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER...SO THESE VALUES
MAY BE A LITTLE TOO HIGH. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR SETTLES
OVER THE REGION...BUT WITH SOME CLOUD COVER OVER THE
AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY NOT LOWER ANY COLDER THAN 20 IN
MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT FURTHER TO THE
NORTH BUT MAY SEE MODERATE QPF VALUES AROUND 0.50 INCHES ALONG THE
I80 CORRIDOR WHERE THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE LOCATED.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION LATE MONDAY
AND INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND COOL TEMPERATURES. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO
NEAR NORMAL...AND GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S. THE ONLY MINOR
CONCERN IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THE GEM IS THE ONLY MODEL INDICATING A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN OUR CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES. HOWEVER...THE GEM
CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER SO WILL NOT ADJUST THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY TOO MUCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
THIS WILL PRODUCE UPSLOPE FLOW...EVENTUALLY LEADING TO LOW CLOUDS
AND SOME PATCHY FOG FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE...INCLUDING THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. PERIODS OF IFR ARE
EXPECTED BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FROM
WEST TO EAST MID FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS FRIDAY MORNING PROGRESSES AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

ALTHOUGH A DRY DAY...A CLOUDY OR FOGGY START IN MANY AREAS EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT AND
BURN OFF...LIKELY NOT UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING OR AROUND MIDDAY.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH COMMON ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS OVER
CARBON/ALBANY COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. SATURDAY WILL OFFER THE
WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES BY LATE SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THROUGH 7 PM FOR NEZ002-003-095-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAH
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT/SML
FIRE WEATHER...CAH




000
FXUS63 KUNR 310910
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
310 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN ND.
COLDER AIR HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE SCALE TROF OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CONUS...A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES REGION...AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. MOIST...UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW
LEVELS IS BRINGING A LARGE BAND OF STRATUS INTO THE AREA...WITH
SOME FOG DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN SD AND NORTHEAST WY. TEMPS ARE
MOSTLY IN THE 30S OVER CLOUD COVERED AREAS...WITH SOME 20S WHERE
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR.

THE GENERALLY PLEASANT WEATHER OF LATE WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NOVEMBER AS RIDGING PATTERN MOSTLY STAYS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION.
AFTER A GLOOMY START THIS MORNING IN MANY AREAS...WITH SOME AREAS OF
FOG...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE MID AND LATE MORNING HOURS
AS CLOUDS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...FAR EASTERN MT...AND
NORTHEASTERN WY WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON OVER
MOST OF THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS...WITH SOME GUSTS
OF 45 TO 50 MPH EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TOWARD
SUNSET...BUT REMAIN BREEZY INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN MANY AREAS. FOR
HALLOWEEN ACTIVITIES THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE MOSTLY
IN THE 40S...WITH 30S OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL SD.
SOME WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
30S.

UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MOST AREAS FOR
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TOWARD CENTRAL SD
TO THE LOWER 70S OVER NORTHEAST WY AND MUCH OF THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
SD PLAINS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED...WITH SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTHWEST SD...WITH GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST WY SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. THE
MAIN UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY AND WILL
HEAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO SASKATCHEWAN AS A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT
SWINGS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. MEANWHILE THE SECONDARY LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. DUE
TO THE SPLIT FLOW...THE MAIN FORCING WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT WITH THE EXPECTED
PATH OF THE NORTHERN UPPER LOW...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL BE LOCATED
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA....SO HAVE REMOVED THE LOW POPS
THAT WERE PREVIOUSLY IN THE FORECAST OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY IN THE FRONTAL ZONE TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER PARTS OF SWRN AND SCNTRL SD ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. DRY
AND COOLER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS MORNING. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ001-002-012>014-026-031-032-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10








000
FXUS65 KRIW 310910
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
310 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY
ALLOWING THE STEERING FLOW TO BACK MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST USHERING IN
WARMER AIR WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE REACHING
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TODAY AND IN THE 60S WEST. THE EASTERN CWA
WILL EKE OUT ANOTHER NICE DAY BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THE CIRCULATION NOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OUT
AT 45N/135W IS DRAWING SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE
PAC NW OUT AHEAD OF IT WITH LIGHTNING BREAKING OUT OVER OREGON
WITHIN THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE ENERGY FROM THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH
WILL SPLIT BY SATURDAY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. THE MODELS SEEM MORE REALISTIC WITH THIS APPROACH
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS THAT DID NOT SHOW AS MUCH OF A SPLIT. BOTH THE
EURO AND THE GFS SHOW THIS SPLIT TAKING PLACE. WE WILL FOCUS OUR
ATTENTION ON THE CLOSER NORTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY. SOUTHWEST BREEZES
WILL INCREASE TODAY FROM RKS TO CPR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PACIFIC
WEATHER SYSTEM. THE TROUGH WILL MAKE LANDFALL BY SATURDAY. AS IT
DOES...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND SHOWERS ALONG WITH
EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BREAK OUT IN WESTERN WY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE WITH SHOWERS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS SATURDAY. ON SATURDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM CIRCULATION WILL CLOSE OFF
OVER NEVADA/OREGON. THIS H5 LOW WILL OPEN BUT REMAIN A FOCUSED AREA
OF VORTICITY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS IDAHO AND INTO MONTANA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. THE H7 LOW WILL TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK WITH THE
SFC LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS NW WY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THIS
LOW WILL HAVE A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED WARM AND COLD FRONT AND A
RESULTING WELL DEVELOPED COMMA CLOUD. MOST OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD
DYNAMICS WILL COME TOGETHER SATURDAY NIGHT. LEFT FRONT QUAD DYNAMICS
WILL ADD TO THE LIFT SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE JET SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH.
AS THIS TROUGH NEARS...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
FROM RKS TO CPR SATURDAY. WHEN THE ASCT COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE PACIFIC
SURFACE LOW...MANY OTHER AREAS WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEED AS
THE WINDS VEER SATURDAY EVENING WITH SOME AREAS SEEING AN 8MB 3
HOURLY SFC PRESSURE RISE. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO THE VALLEY FLOORS
SATURDAY NIGHT OUT WEST. AS THE PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST INTO
MONTANA...SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT IN NORTHERN WY AND WILL
CONTINUE IN WESTERN WY SUNDAY FROM THE LIFT MORE DIRECTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. THE HEAVIEST MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY IN MT WHERE THE BEST WRAP AROUND
IS ENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE LOCATED. AS THIS WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
PULL AWAY FROM US TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT THE SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH. AFTER ALL IS SAID AND DONE...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS BY LATE SUNDAY AND 4 TO 8 INCHES IN
THE SURROUNDING MOUNTAINS. ONLY 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE
BIG HORN MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AS FAR AS ANY POTENTIAL
SIGNIFICANT SNOW BANDING GOES EAST OF THE DIVIDE...IT NOW APPEARS
THAT THE POST FRONTAL H7 NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE TOO WEAK TO
SUPPORT ANY WITH THE MAIN ENERGY TO DRIVE THESE TYPE OF SNOW
SHOWERS TO FAR NORTH,

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

WEAK BUT CHILLY NW FLOW STARTS THE PERIOD AS THE WEEKEND TROUGH
LINGERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY BUT WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
SPLIT BETWEEN A LOW NEAR FAR NRN ND AND ANOTHER OVER THE DESERT SW.
JUST SOME CHILLY AIR LEFT BEHIND WITH MAYBE A LITTLE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IN THE MTNS AND SE FRINGES TO START THE PERIOD. MONDAY
SHOULD BE THE COLDEST DAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THE COLDEST NIGHT BEFORE
WE BEGIN ANOTHER WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER LOW AND COLD
AIR BETWEEN ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN WORK TOGETHER TO DEVELOP
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT PUMPS UP
THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST. HEIGHTS RISE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES PEAK ON THURSDAY. HIGHS GENERALLY
START OUT MONDAY IN THE 40S WITH MAINLY 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
THEN WARM ON AVERAGE 5 TO 8 DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IF WE
GET ENOUGH MIXING...THURSDAY COULD BE EVEN WARMER WITH BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOWING H7 TEMPERATURES BETWEEN +6 TO +10 EAST OF THE
DIVIDE. A SHORTWAVE THEN ROTATES THROUGH THE ERN PACIFIC TROUGH AND
THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH TO BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. FOR NOW...MAINLY CONFINING POPS TO THE MTNS OF
THE WEST AND NORTH WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE NORTH. NOT A LOT OF PCPN POTENTIAL THROUGH THE WEEK BUT THERE
MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FLOW AND WEAK DISTURBANCES/MOISTURE IN THE NW
FLOW TO ALLOW SOME VERY LIGHT MTN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AT
TIMES IN THE NW MTNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AN INCREASE IN WINDS AT
TIMES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NORMALLY WINDY AREAS WITH EACH PASSING
RIPPLE BUT NOTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED. WE DO GET A LITTLE
BETTER GRADIENT ON THE GFS BY THURSDAY AND IF THIS DOES OCCUR THEN
LIKE MENTIONED ABOVE TEMPERATURES COULD SOAR EAST OF THE DIVIDE TO
RECORD TERRITORY. TOO EARLY YET TO GO THAT WARM BUT JUST SOMETHING
TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. EXPECT SOME
AFTERNOON WIND AT KCPR AND KRKS TERMINAL SITES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING AND BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE
WILL DEVELOP TODAY FROM THE RED DESERT THROUGH NATRONA AND
JOHNSON COUNTIES. THE NEXT POTENTIAL ROUND OF PRECIPITATION MAY
BE FOUND BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES WESTERN WYOMING.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON










000
FXUS65 KRIW 310524
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1124 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT (ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT)

A FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SATELLITE
IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE SO SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL SEE A BROKEN DECK OF CLOUDS
BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL AND INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...WE
HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER A BIT IN THOSE AREAS BUT ONLY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR MOST AREAS. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE FOR INCREASE IN THE
BREEZE LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT A BIT AND
BRING A GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAVORED
AREAS LIKE FROM ROCK SPRINGS TO CASPER. HOWEVER...700 MILLIBAR WINDS
TOP OUT AT ONLY 35 KNOTS SO IT LOOKS ONLY BREEZY...NOT WINDY AND ANY
HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS ALMOST CERTAINLY WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY REACHING THE 70S IN SOME WARMER BASIN LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH IF
CLOUDS ARE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THIS MAY INHIBIT HEATING JUST A
BIT. AS FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT AND THE ALL IMPORTANT TRICK OR TREATING
FORECAST...IT LOOKS LIKE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND 50S DEPENDING ON YOUR
ELEVATION SO THINGS LOOK GOOD FOR THE ANNUAL CANDY GATHERING. LATE
AT NIGHT AFTER THE KIDS HAVE HOPEFULLY GONE TO SLEEP...SOME MOISTURE
ADVECTING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST COULD BRING A FEW SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE DIVIDE BUT THESE LOOK
INCONSEQUENTIAL ENOUGH THAT WE LEFT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

BEGINNING OF FCST...END OF UPR RIDGING WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW FIRMLY IN
PLACE AHEAD OF WRN CONUS TROF AND FIRST INFLUENCES OF JET STREAK/SW
BEING FELT OVR THE WRN FA. HOWEVER...LOW MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP QPF ON THE LOW SIDE AT LEAST THRU
THE FIRST 12 HRS OF THE FCST. WEAK CYCLOGENESIS JUST STARTING TO
PROCEED OVR THE GREAT BASIN WITH LEE SIDE TROFFING SETTING EAST OF
THE BIGHORNS. AS SFC P GRAD INCREASES WITH THIS DEVELOPING STORM
SYSTEM...WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE USUAL WIND CORRIDOR WITH ALSO
INCREASE BY SAT AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS 45 TO 50 MPH COMMON INTO THE
EVENING PERIOD BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL RETURN
AGAIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

BY SAT NIGHT...ADDITIONAL CHANGES FROM THE APPROACHING...
INTENSIFYING AND  EVOLVING SYSTEM REALLY START TO COME INTO PLAY AS
SFC/UPR LOW SPINS UP OVR NRN WY/SRN MT...ALONG/NEAR INTERSECTION
WITH LEE TROF. AS CYCLONE SPINS UP...EXPECT VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT
INVOF LOW SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING AFFECTING THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS
WEST OF BUFFALO FOR A SHORT PERIOD BEFORE THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
NNE. ACROSS THE WRN CWA...N/S ORIENTED JET MOVES OVERHEAD...
SUBSTANTIALLY INTENSIFYING PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH...BY THIS
TIME...INCREASED  MOISTURE. THIS FIRST BURST OF PRECIP...AND RAIN
CHANGING SNOW...WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTH AND INTO CNTRL MT BY SUN
MORNING. MOUNTAINS SHOULD RECEIVE UP TO 3 INCHES OF WET SNOWFALL
FROM THIS FIRST HIT. THEN...AS THE CYCLONE MATURES RATHER QUICKLY
WITH RAPIDLY DEVELOPING INSTABILITY UNDER COOL UPR TEMPS...AND
DECENT BAROCLINICITY...A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL BREAK OUT
WEST OF THE SFC LOW...WITH GREATEST INTENSITY NEARLY DIRECTLY UNDER
THE H5 TROF AXIS OVR NERN ID/WRN MT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BIT
LIGHTER BUT MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL/SNOWFALL ACROSS THE WRN TO NRN
CWA. ANOTHER AREA OF GOOD PRECIP WILL BE CO-LOCATED WITH THE UPR JET
FROM NCNTRL CO THRU SERN WY...WELL OUT OF THE FA. ATTM...IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT THE MOUNTAINS OF SW YELLOWSTONE AND PERHAPS THE TETONS
TO THE SOUTH WILL BE IN THE BEST POSITION FOR GREATEST SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL...WITH MUCH OF THIS REGION RECEIVING 3 TO 6 INCHES IN A 24
HR PERIOD...WITH LOCALIZED PREFERRED AREAS GETTING UP TO 8 INCHES.
PERHAPS ANOTHER INCH OR TWO MAY BE HAD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THIS IS MUCH MORE SPECULATION THAN EMPIRICAL
SCIENCE AT THIS POINT. LOWER ELEVATIONS LOOK TO BE THE RECIPIENTS OF
UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE SAME PERIOD OF TIME. ALL THESE
SNOWFALL NUMBERS PUT THE WRN FA DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO ADVISORY
CONDITIONS. IF THE LOCATION OF THE UPR AND SFC LOWS HAD PLACED
CYCLOGENESIS FURTHER EWD...OR WAS SLOWER TO DEVELOP AND
EVOLVE...THIS WOULD/COULD HAVE BEEN MUCH WORSE THAN IT WILL BE.
STILL...THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WARRANTS CONTINUED
MONITORING IN CASE THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT SPATIAL OR TEMPORAL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN NOW AND THEN THAT MAY CAUSE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL
TO INCREASE. LATER SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE ONLY
REALISTIC PERIOD WHERE MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE ANY CHANCE FOR
PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND AS TROF AXIS SWINGS THRU.

BY MON AFTERNOON...MOST TRACES OF THE STORM SYSTEM...BOTH SFC AND
ALOFT...WILL HAVE MOVED E TO SE OF WY...LEAVING BEHIND CLEARING
SKIES AND COLDER TEMPS. SLOW WARMING AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS UNDER
CONTINUING NW FLOW UNTIL UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY...WHEN A TRANSITION
TO FLAT RIDGING MAY ENSUE. WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE ACROSS THE USUAL
SPOTS TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. OTHERWISE...OVER THE FINAL THREE
DAYS OF THE FCST...THE ONLY AREA WHICH MAY HAVE SMALL CHCS FOR
PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE NW MOUNTAINS UNDER MODEST MID LVL TERRAIN
FORCED CONDITIONS..FAVORING THE UPR WRN SLOPES.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. EXPECT SOME
AFTERNOON WIND AT KCPR AND KRKS TERMINAL SITES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING AND BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE
WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW FROM THE RED DESERT THROUGH NATRONA AND
JOHNSON COUNTIES ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT POTENTIAL ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION MAY BE FOUND BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES WESTERN WYOMING.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...BRAUN
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS







000
FXUS65 KCYS 310458
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1058 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND POCKETS
OF FOG. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING UPSLOPE FLOW AND
DIABATIC COOLING WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SATURATION IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER LATE TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE LOW STRATUS BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AND QUICKLY
SPREAD WEST THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY. ACCOMPANYING THE LOW STATUS
WILL BE SOME FOG. OF COURSE THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND
FOOTHILLS WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF DENSE FOG. IT WILL LIKELY
TAKE A WHILE FOR STRATUS TO LIFT AND BURN OFF GIVEN SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND CIRRUS SHIELD IN PLACE TO FURTHER INHIBIT SURFACE
HEATING. WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT SHOULD EVENTUALLY SCOUR OUT THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT THAT MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
SOME PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

TRANQUIL WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
DRIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN WY. EXTENSIVE DECK OF STRATUS
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS A SIGN OF WHAT IS TO COME LATER TONIGHT
AS A 1032 MB SFC HIGH MOVES SOUTH. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AS THIS OCCURS. NAM BL RH PROGS ARE RATHER
MOIST AND FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW IMPRESSIVE LLVL WARM ADVECTION. GOOD
SETUP FOR AT LEAST LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLY FOG...THOUGH SFC WINDS
COULD STAY ELEVATED ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS MIXED NEAR THE SFC. HAVE
MAINTAINED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. WENT SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT
WITH H7 TEMPS RAPIDLY INCREASING BETWEEN 06-12Z...SUGGESTING STEADY
OR EVEN RISING TEMPS.

STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF THROUGH THE MORNING ON FRI BUT WILL
LIKELY STAY AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO IMPACT TEMPS. NO REASON TO DEVIATE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST WITH SUB-GUIDANCE TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS. FRI
WILL BE BREEZY. H7 SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO UNDERCUT THE UPPER RIDGE
DURING THE AFTN...CONTRIBUTING TO A BELT OF STRONGER LLVL FLOW IN
EXCESS OF 40 KTS OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND
35 MPH OR SO WHERE DIURNAL HEATING IS BETTER...MAINLY WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SAT
WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PCPN MOST LIKELY CONFINED TO
THE MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW SMALLER WAVES...BUT EVEN THAT SHOULD BE
VERY ISOLATED WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. GFS H7 TEMPS AROUND 7-8
DEG C SUGGEST HIGHS MAY BE IN THE 70S OVER THE PLAINS. WINDY AGAIN
ON SAT AFTN OVER CARBON COUNTY. AN INCREASING H85 CAG-CPR GRADIENT
SUGGESTS ARL MAY SEE GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT OR
EARLY SUN...BUT DO NOT EXPECT WARNING CRITERIA TO BE MET ATTM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

ONE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS MONTANA
SUNDAY WHILE A SECOND UPPER LOW SHOULD CLOSE OFF OVER THE FAR SW
CONUS. BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE OVER THE SE PART OF THE CWA
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS JET DYNAMICS SHOULD OVERRUN MODEST
UPSLOPE SFC FLOW. NOT A LOT OF PCPN SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER
THOUGH SOME MTNS SNOWS ARE EXPECTED. COOL AND MAINLY DRY MONDAY AS
THE UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE CWA BY LATE IN THE DAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOK TO BE DRY WITH A SLOW WARMUP UNDER
WNW FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
THIS WILL PRODUCE UPSLOPE FLOW...EVENTUALLY LEADING TO LOW CLOUDS
AND SOME POCKETS OF FOG FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE...INCLUDING THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. IFR TO MVFR IS EXPECTED
BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO
EAST MID FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS FRIDAY MORNING PROGRESSES AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WARMEST SATURDAY. AFTERNOON RH VALUES
SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY
RETURN ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BOTH FRI AND SAT AFTN
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR PCPN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SUN AND MON.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...CLH




000
FXUS65 KCYS 310458
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1058 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND POCKETS
OF FOG. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING UPSLOPE FLOW AND
DIABATIC COOLING WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SATURATION IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER LATE TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE LOW STRATUS BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AND QUICKLY
SPREAD WEST THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY. ACCOMPANYING THE LOW STATUS
WILL BE SOME FOG. OF COURSE THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND
FOOTHILLS WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF DENSE FOG. IT WILL LIKELY
TAKE A WHILE FOR STRATUS TO LIFT AND BURN OFF GIVEN SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND CIRRUS SHIELD IN PLACE TO FURTHER INHIBIT SURFACE
HEATING. WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT SHOULD EVENTUALLY SCOUR OUT THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT THAT MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
SOME PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

TRANQUIL WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
DRIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN WY. EXTENSIVE DECK OF STRATUS
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS A SIGN OF WHAT IS TO COME LATER TONIGHT
AS A 1032 MB SFC HIGH MOVES SOUTH. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AS THIS OCCURS. NAM BL RH PROGS ARE RATHER
MOIST AND FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW IMPRESSIVE LLVL WARM ADVECTION. GOOD
SETUP FOR AT LEAST LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLY FOG...THOUGH SFC WINDS
COULD STAY ELEVATED ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS MIXED NEAR THE SFC. HAVE
MAINTAINED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. WENT SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT
WITH H7 TEMPS RAPIDLY INCREASING BETWEEN 06-12Z...SUGGESTING STEADY
OR EVEN RISING TEMPS.

STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF THROUGH THE MORNING ON FRI BUT WILL
LIKELY STAY AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO IMPACT TEMPS. NO REASON TO DEVIATE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST WITH SUB-GUIDANCE TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS. FRI
WILL BE BREEZY. H7 SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO UNDERCUT THE UPPER RIDGE
DURING THE AFTN...CONTRIBUTING TO A BELT OF STRONGER LLVL FLOW IN
EXCESS OF 40 KTS OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND
35 MPH OR SO WHERE DIURNAL HEATING IS BETTER...MAINLY WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SAT
WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PCPN MOST LIKELY CONFINED TO
THE MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW SMALLER WAVES...BUT EVEN THAT SHOULD BE
VERY ISOLATED WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. GFS H7 TEMPS AROUND 7-8
DEG C SUGGEST HIGHS MAY BE IN THE 70S OVER THE PLAINS. WINDY AGAIN
ON SAT AFTN OVER CARBON COUNTY. AN INCREASING H85 CAG-CPR GRADIENT
SUGGESTS ARL MAY SEE GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT OR
EARLY SUN...BUT DO NOT EXPECT WARNING CRITERIA TO BE MET ATTM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

ONE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS MONTANA
SUNDAY WHILE A SECOND UPPER LOW SHOULD CLOSE OFF OVER THE FAR SW
CONUS. BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE OVER THE SE PART OF THE CWA
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS JET DYNAMICS SHOULD OVERRUN MODEST
UPSLOPE SFC FLOW. NOT A LOT OF PCPN SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER
THOUGH SOME MTNS SNOWS ARE EXPECTED. COOL AND MAINLY DRY MONDAY AS
THE UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE CWA BY LATE IN THE DAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOK TO BE DRY WITH A SLOW WARMUP UNDER
WNW FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
THIS WILL PRODUCE UPSLOPE FLOW...EVENTUALLY LEADING TO LOW CLOUDS
AND SOME POCKETS OF FOG FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE...INCLUDING THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. IFR TO MVFR IS EXPECTED
BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO
EAST MID FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS FRIDAY MORNING PROGRESSES AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WARMEST SATURDAY. AFTERNOON RH VALUES
SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY
RETURN ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BOTH FRI AND SAT AFTN
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR PCPN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SUN AND MON.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...CLH




000
FXUS63 KUNR 310423
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1023 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 746 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST MB WITH
NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE CWA. 00Z BIS SOUNDING OVERLAID ON
00Z KUNR SOUNDING SUPPORTS ST/FG DEVELOPMENT. LATEST FOG PRODUCT
SHOWED ST STARTING TO ADVANCE SOUTHWEST AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS
AND UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES. 00Z RAP/HRRR SHOW ST ACCELERATING
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND ENVELOPING THE BLACK HILLS OVERNIGHT.
SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP ON NORTH/EAST SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS.

FORECAST BEING UPDATED TO ADJUST FOR SLOWER ST/BR INTRUSION BASED
ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH SURFACE HIGH
OVER SASKATCHEWAN. LOW STRATUS COVERS MUCH OF ND AND
NORTHERN/EASTERN SD. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ABOUT 10-15 KTS...AND
TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 50S FARTHER
SOUTH.

SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME
LIGHT AND EASTERLY. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AS
WELL...DEVELOPING INTO FOG AS THEY APPROACH HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FOG
IS EXPECTED FORM AROUND THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS EARLY THIS EVENING AND
EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN SD OVERNIGHT...WRAPPING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN HILLS INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S ACROSS CENTRAL SD TO THE LOWER
30S IN PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WY.

FOG WILL DIMINISH BY MID MORNING. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE
EAST ON FRIDAY...AND RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE
STRONGEST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF SD...REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AROUND NOON. AREAS
TO THE EAST AND SOUTH WILL BE MARGINAL...BUT DECIDED TO ADD THEM
TO THE WIND ADVISORY. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL SD...TO THE UPPER 50S IN PARTS
OF NORTHEASTERN WY.

ANYONE PARTAKING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES FRIDAY EVENING WILL HAVE DRY
AND BREEZY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL SD...TO THE MID 50S IN NORTHEASTERN WY.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY AS STRONG UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE. MAIN UPPER LOW SWINGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY...WITH WEAK
COLD FRONT SLIDING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SECONDARY LOW
CONTINUES TO DIG INTO FOUR CORNERS AREA. WITH SPLITTING UPPER
FLOW...MAIN FORCING REMAINS NORTH AND SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA. BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1018 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MVFR/LOCAL IFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
WILL SLIDE SOUTHWEST AND LOWER OVERNIGHT CREATING IFR VSBYS DUE
TO FOG OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST
WYOMING...WITH LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AROUND THE BLACK HILLS. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR SDZ001-002-
     012>014-026-031-032-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...HELGESON







000
FXUS65 KCYS 310320
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
920 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND POCKETS
OF FOG. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING UPSLOPE FLOW AND
DIABATIC COOLING WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SATURATION IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER LATE TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE LOW STRATUS BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AND QUICKLY
SPREAD WEST THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY. ACCOMPANYING THE LOW STATUS
WILL BE SOME FOG. OF COURSE THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND
FOOTHILLS WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF DENSE FOG. IT WILL LIKELY
TAKE A WHILE FOR STRATUS TO LIFT AND BURN OFF GIVEN SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND CIRRUS SHEILD IN PLACE TO FURTHER INHIBIT SURFACE
HEATING. WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT SHOULD EVENTUALLY SCOUR OUT THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT THAT MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
SOME PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

TRANQUIL WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
DRIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN WY. EXTENSIVE DECK OF STRATUS
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS A SIGN OF WHAT IS TO COME LATER TONIGHT
AS A 1032 MB SFC HIGH MOVES SOUTH. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AS THIS OCCURS. NAM BL RH PROGS ARE RATHER
MOIST AND FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW IMPRESSIVE LLVL WARM ADVECTION. GOOD
SETUP FOR AT LEAST LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLY FOG...THOUGH SFC WINDS
COULD STAY ELEVATED ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS MIXED NEAR THE SFC. HAVE
MAINTAINED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. WENT SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT
WITH H7 TEMPS RAPIDLY INCREASING BETWEEN 06-12Z...SUGGESTING STEADY
OR EVEN RISING TEMPS.

STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF THROUGH THE MORNING ON FRI BUT WILL
LIKELY STAY AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO IMPACT TEMPS. NO REASON TO DEVIATE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST WITH SUB-GUIDANCE TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS. FRI
WILL BE BREEZY. H7 SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO UNDERCUT THE UPPER RIDGE
DURING THE AFTN...CONTRIBUTING TO A BELT OF STRONGER LLVL FLOW IN
EXCESS OF 40 KTS OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND
35 MPH OR SO WHERE DIURNAL HEATING IS BETTER...MAINLY WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SAT
WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PCPN MOST LIKELY CONFINED TO
THE MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW SMALLER WAVES...BUT EVEN THAT SHOULD BE
VERY ISOLATED WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. GFS H7 TEMPS AROUND 7-8
DEG C SUGGEST HIGHS MAY BE IN THE 70S OVER THE PLAINS. WINDY AGAIN
ON SAT AFTN OVER CARBON COUNTY. AN INCREASING H85 CAG-CPR GRADIENT
SUGGESTS ARL MAY SEE GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT OR
EARLY SUN...BUT DO NOT EXPECT WARNING CRITERIA TO BE MET ATTM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

ONE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS MONTANA
SUNDAY WHILE A SECOND UPPER LOW SHOULD CLOSE OFF OVER THE FAR SW
CONUS. BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE OVER THE SE PART OF THE CWA
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS JET DYNAMICS SHOULD OVERRUN MODEST
UPSLOPE SFC FLOW. NOT A LOT OF PCPN SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER
THOUGH SOME MTNS SNOWS ARE EXPECTED. COOL AND MAINLY DRY MONDAY AS
THE UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE CWA BY LATE IN THE DAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOK TO BE DRY WITH A SLOW WARMUP UNDER
WNW FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THAT WILL CHANGE AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT AS HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS THIS OCCURS UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
DEVELOP LOW CLOUDS AND SOME POCKETS OF FOG. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING
FRIDAY ANYWHERE ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...INCLUDING
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP AS FRIDAY MORNING PROGRESSES.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WARMEST SATURDAY. AFTERNOON RH VALUES
SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY
RETURN ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BOTH FRI AND SAT AFTN
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR PCPN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SUN AND MON.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...CLH




000
FXUS63 KUNR 310150
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
750 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 746 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST MB WITH
NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE CWA. 00Z BIS SOUNDING OVERLAID ON
00Z KUNR SOUNDING SUPPORTS ST/FG DEVELOPMENT. LATEST FOG PRODUCT
SHOWED ST STARTING TO ADVANCE SOUTHWEST AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS
AND UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES. 00Z RAP/HRRR SHOW ST ACCELERATING
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND ENVELOPING THE BLACK HILLS OVERNIGHT.
SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP ON NORTH/EAST SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS.

FORECAST BEING UPDATED TO ADJUST FOR SLOWER ST/BR INTRUSION BASED
ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH SURFACE HIGH
OVER SASKATCHEWAN. LOW STRATUS COVERS MUCH OF ND AND
NORTHERN/EASTERN SD. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ABOUT 10-15 KTS...AND
TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 50S FARTHER
SOUTH.

SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME
LIGHT AND EASTERLY. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AS
WELL...DEVELOPING INTO FOG AS THEY APPROACH HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FOG
IS EXPECTED FORM AROUND THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS EARLY THIS EVENING AND
EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN SD OVERNIGHT...WRAPPING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN HILLS INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S ACROSS CENTRAL SD TO THE LOWER
30S IN PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WY.

FOG WILL DIMINISH BY MID MORNING. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE
EAST ON FRIDAY...AND RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE
STRONGEST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF SD...REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AROUND NOON. AREAS
TO THE EAST AND SOUTH WILL BE MARGINAL...BUT DECIDED TO ADD THEM
TO THE WIND ADVISORY. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL SD...TO THE UPPER 50S IN PARTS
OF NORTHEASTERN WY.

ANYONE PARTAKING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES FRIDAY EVENING WILL HAVE DRY
AND BREEZY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL SD...TO THE MID 50S IN NORTHEASTERN WY.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY AS STRONG UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE. MAIN UPPER LOW SWINGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY...WITH WEAK
COLD FRONT SLIDING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SECONDARY LOW
CONTINUES TO DIG INTO FOUR CORNERS AREA. WITH SPLITTING UPPER
FLOW...MAIN FORCING REMAINS NORTH AND SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA. BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 512 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MVFR/LOCAL IFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SLIDE
SOUTHWEST AND DEVELOP THIS EVENING...REACHING THE NORTHERN/EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS CREATING IFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG.
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS THEN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING...WITH LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AROUND
THE BLACK HILLS. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR SDZ001-002-
     012>014-026-031-032-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...HELGESON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 310150
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
750 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 746 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST MB WITH
NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE CWA. 00Z BIS SOUNDING OVERLAID ON
00Z KUNR SOUNDING SUPPORTS ST/FG DEVELOPMENT. LATEST FOG PRODUCT
SHOWED ST STARTING TO ADVANCE SOUTHWEST AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS
AND UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES. 00Z RAP/HRRR SHOW ST ACCELERATING
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND ENVELOPING THE BLACK HILLS OVERNIGHT.
SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP ON NORTH/EAST SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS.

FORECAST BEING UPDATED TO ADJUST FOR SLOWER ST/BR INTRUSION BASED
ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH SURFACE HIGH
OVER SASKATCHEWAN. LOW STRATUS COVERS MUCH OF ND AND
NORTHERN/EASTERN SD. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ABOUT 10-15 KTS...AND
TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 50S FARTHER
SOUTH.

SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME
LIGHT AND EASTERLY. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AS
WELL...DEVELOPING INTO FOG AS THEY APPROACH HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FOG
IS EXPECTED FORM AROUND THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS EARLY THIS EVENING AND
EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN SD OVERNIGHT...WRAPPING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN HILLS INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S ACROSS CENTRAL SD TO THE LOWER
30S IN PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WY.

FOG WILL DIMINISH BY MID MORNING. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE
EAST ON FRIDAY...AND RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE
STRONGEST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF SD...REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AROUND NOON. AREAS
TO THE EAST AND SOUTH WILL BE MARGINAL...BUT DECIDED TO ADD THEM
TO THE WIND ADVISORY. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL SD...TO THE UPPER 50S IN PARTS
OF NORTHEASTERN WY.

ANYONE PARTAKING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES FRIDAY EVENING WILL HAVE DRY
AND BREEZY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL SD...TO THE MID 50S IN NORTHEASTERN WY.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY AS STRONG UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE. MAIN UPPER LOW SWINGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY...WITH WEAK
COLD FRONT SLIDING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SECONDARY LOW
CONTINUES TO DIG INTO FOUR CORNERS AREA. WITH SPLITTING UPPER
FLOW...MAIN FORCING REMAINS NORTH AND SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA. BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 512 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MVFR/LOCAL IFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SLIDE
SOUTHWEST AND DEVELOP THIS EVENING...REACHING THE NORTHERN/EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS CREATING IFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG.
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS THEN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING...WITH LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AROUND
THE BLACK HILLS. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR SDZ001-002-
     012>014-026-031-032-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...HELGESON





000
FXUS65 KCYS 302349
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
549 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

TRANQUIL WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
DRIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN WY. EXTENSIVE DECK OF STRATUS
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS A SIGN OF WHAT IS TO COME LATER TONIGHT
AS A 1032 MB SFC HIGH MOVES SOUTH. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AS THIS OCCURS. NAM BL RH PROGS ARE RATHER
MOIST AND FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW IMPRESSIVE LLVL WARM ADVECTION. GOOD
SETUP FOR AT LEAST LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLY FOG...THOUGH SFC WINDS
COULD STAY ELEVATED ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS MIXED NEAR THE SFC. HAVE
MAINTAINED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. WENT SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT
WITH H7 TEMPS RAPIDLY INCREASING BETWEEN 06-12Z...SUGGESTING STEADY
OR EVEN RISING TEMPS.

STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF THROUGH THE MORNING ON FRI BUT WILL
LIKELY STAY AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO IMPACT TEMPS. NO REASON TO DEVIATE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST WITH SUB-GUIDANCE TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS. FRI
WILL BE BREEZY. H7 SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO UNDERCUT THE UPPER RIDGE
DURING THE AFTN...CONTRIBUTING TO A BELT OF STRONGER LLVL FLOW IN
EXCESS OF 40 KTS OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND
35 MPH OR SO WHERE DIURNAL HEATING IS BETTER...MAINLY WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SAT
WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PCPN MOST LIKELY CONFINED TO
THE MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW SMALLER WAVES...BUT EVEN THAT SHOULD BE
VERY ISOLATED WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. GFS H7 TEMPS AROUND 7-8
DEG C SUGGEST HIGHS MAY BE IN THE 70S OVER THE PLAINS. WINDY AGAIN
ON SAT AFTN OVER CARBON COUNTY. AN INCREASING H85 CAG-CPR GRADIENT
SUGGESTS ARL MAY SEE GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT OR
EARLY SUN...BUT DO NOT EXPECT WARNING CRITERIA TO BE MET ATTM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

ONE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS MONTANA
SUNDAY WHILE A SECOND UPPER LOW SHOULD CLOSE OFF OVER THE FAR SW
CONUS. BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE OVER THE SE PART OF THE CWA
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS JET DYNAMICS SHOULD OVERRUN MODEST
UPSLOPE SFC FLOW. NOT A LOT OF PCPN SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER
THOUGH SOME MTNS SNOWS ARE EXPECTED. COOL AND MAINLY DRY MONDAY AS
THE UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE CWA BY LATE IN THE DAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOK TO BE DRY WITH A SLOW WARMUP UNDER
WNW FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THAT WILL CHANGE AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT AS HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS THIS OCCURS UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
DEVELOP LOW CLOUDS AND SOME POCKETS OF FOG. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING
FRIDAY ANYWHERE ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...INCLUDING
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP AS FRIDAY MORNING PROGRESSES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WARMEST SATURDAY. AFTERNOON RH VALUES
SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY
RETURN ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BOTH FRI AND SAT AFTN
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR PCPN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SUN AND MON.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...CLH




000
FXUS63 KUNR 302314
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
514 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH SURFACE HIGH
OVER SASKATCHEWAN. LOW STRATUS COVERS MUCH OF ND AND
NORTHERN/EASTERN SD. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ABOUT 10-15 KTS...AND
TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 50S FARTHER
SOUTH.

SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME
LIGHT AND EASTERLY. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AS
WELL...DEVELOPING INTO FOG AS THEY APPROACH HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FOG
IS EXPECTED FORM AROUND THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS EARLY THIS EVENING AND
EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN SD OVERNIGHT...WRAPPING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN HILLS INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S ACROSS CENTRAL SD TO THE LOWER
30S IN PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WY.

FOG WILL DIMINISH BY MID MORNING. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE
EAST ON FRIDAY...AND RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE
STRONGEST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF SD...REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AROUND NOON. AREAS
TO THE EAST AND SOUTH WILL BE MARGINAL...BUT DECIDED TO ADD THEM
TO THE WIND ADVISORY. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL SD...TO THE UPPER 50S IN PARTS
OF NORTHEASTERN WY.

ANYONE PARTAKING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES FRIDAY EVENING WILL HAVE DRY
AND BREEZY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL SD...TO THE MID 50S IN NORTHEASTERN WY.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY AS STRONG UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE. MAIN UPPER LOW SWINGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY...WITH WEAK
COLD FRONT SLIDING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SECONDARY LOW
CONTINUES TO DIG INTO FOUR CORNERS AREA. WITH SPLITTING UPPER
FLOW...MAIN FORCING REMAINS NORTH AND SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA. BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 512 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MVFR/LOCAL IFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SLIDE
SOUTHWEST AND DEVELOP THIS EVENING...REACHING THE NORTHERN/EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS CREATING IFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG.
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS THEN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING...WITH LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AROUND
THE BLACK HILLS. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR SDZ001-002-
     012>014-026-031-032-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...HELGESON





000
FXUS65 KRIW 302110
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
310 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

A FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SATELLITE
IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE SO SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL SEE A BROKEN DECK OF CLOUDS
BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL AND INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...WE
HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER A BIT IN THOSE AREAS BUT ONLY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR MOST AREAS. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE FOR INCREASE IN THE
BREEZE LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT A BIT AND
BRING A GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAVORED
AREAS LIKE FROM ROCK SPRINGS TO CASPER. HOWEVER...700 MILLIBAR WINDS
TOP OUT AT ONLY 35 KNOTS SO IT LOOKS ONLY BREEZY...NOT WINDY AND ANY
HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS ALMOST CERTAINLY WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY REACHING THE 70S IN SOME WARMER BASIN LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH IF
CLOUDS ARE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THIS MAY INHIBIT HEATING JUST A
BIT. AS FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT AND THE ALL IMPORTANT TRICK OR TREATING
FORECAST...IT LOOKS LIKE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND 50S DEPENDING ON YOUR
ELEVATION SO THINGS LOOK GOOD FOR THE ANNUAL CANDY GATHERING. LATE
AT NIGHT AFTER THE KIDS HAVE HOPEFULLY GONE TO SLEEP...SOME MOISTURE
ADVECTING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST COULD BRING A FEW SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE DIVIDE BUT THESE LOOK
INCONSEQUENTIAL ENOUGH THAT WE LEFT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

BEGINNING OF FCST...END OF UPR RIDGING WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW FIRMLY IN
PLACE AHEAD OF WRN CONUS TROF AND FIRST INFLUENCES OF JET STREAK/SW
BEING FELT OVR THE WRN FA. HOWEVER...LOW MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP QPF ON THE LOW SIDE AT LEAST THRU
THE FIRST 12 HRS OF THE FCST. WEAK CYCLOGENESIS JUST STARTING TO
PROCEED OVR THE GREAT BASIN WITH LEE SIDE TROFFING SETTING EAST OF
THE BIGHORNS. AS SFC P GRAD INCREASES WITH THIS DEVELOPING STORM
SYSTEM...WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE USUAL WIND CORRIDOR WITH ALSO INCREASE BY
SAT AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS 45 TO 50 MPH COMMON INTO THE EVENING
PERIOD BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL RETURN AGAIN BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

BY SAT NIGHT...ADDITIONAL CHANGES FROM THE
APPROACHING...INTENSIFYING AND EVOLVING SYSTEM REALLY START TO COME
INTO PLAY AS SFC/UPR LOW SPINS UP OVR NRN WY/SRN MT...ALONG/NEAR
INTERSECTION WITH LEE TROF. AS CYCLONE SPINS UP...EXPECT VERY STRONG
WINDS ALOFT INVOF LOW SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING AFFECTING THE
MOUNTAIN PEAKS WEST OF BUFFALO FOR A SHORT PERIOD BEFORE THE LOW
MOVES OFF TO THE NNE. ACROSS THE WRN CWA...N/S ORIENTED JET MOVES
OVERHEAD...SUBSTANTIALLY INTENSIFYING PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH...BY
THIS TIME...INCREASED  MOISTURE. THIS FIRST BURST OF PRECIP...AND
RAIN CHANGING SNOW...WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTH AND INTO CNTRL MT BY
SUN MORNING. MOUNTAINS SHOULD RECEIVE UP TO 3 INCHES OF WET SNOWFALL
FROM THIS FIRST HIT. THEN...AS THE CYCLONE MATURES RATHER QUICKLY
WITH RAPIDLY DEVELOPING INSTABILITY UNDER COOL UPR TEMPS...AND
DECENT BAROCLINICITY...A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL BREAK OUT
WEST OF THE SFC LOW...WITH GREATEST INTENSITY NEARLY DIRECTLY UNDER
THE H5 TROF AXIS OVR NERN ID/WRN MT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BIT
LIGHTER BUT MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL/SNOWFALL ACROSS THE WRN TO NRN
CWA. ANOTHER AREA OF GOOD PRECIP WILL BE CO-LOCATED WITH THE UPR JET
FROM NCNTRL CO THRU SERN WY...WELL OUT OF THE FA. ATTM...IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT THE MOUNTAINS OF SW YELLOWSTONE AND PERHAPS THE TETONS
TO THE SOUTH WILL BE IN THE BEST POSITION FOR GREATEST SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL...WITH MUCH OF THIS REGION RECEIVING 3 TO 6 INCHES IN A 24
HR PERIOD...WITH LOCALIZED PREFERRED AREAS GETTING UP TO 8 INCHES.
PERHAPS ANOTHER INCH OR TWO MAY BE HAD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THIS IS MUCH MORE SPECULATION THAN EMPIRICAL
SCIENCE AT THIS POINT. LOWER ELEVATIONS LOOK TO BE THE RECIPIENTS OF
UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE SAME PERIOD OF TIME. ALL THESE
SNOWFALL NUMBERS PUT THE WRN FA DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO ADVISORY
CONDITIONS. IF THE LOCATION OF THE UPR AND SFC LOWS HAD PLACED
CYCLOGENESIS FURTHER EWD...OR WAS SLOWER TO DEVELOP AND
EVOLVE...THIS WOULD/COULD HAVE BEEN MUCH WORSE THAN IT WILL BE.
STILL...THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WARRANTS CONTINUED
MONITORING IN CASE THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT SPATIAL OR TEMPORAL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN NOW AND THEN THAT MAY CAUSE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL
TO INCREASE. LATER SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE ONLY
REALISTIC PERIOD WHERE MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE ANY CHANCE FOR
PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND AS TROF AXIS SWINGS THRU.

BY MON AFTERNOON...MOST TRACES OF THE STORM SYSTEM...BOTH SFC AND
ALOFT...WILL HAVE MOVED E TO SE OF WY...LEAVING BEHIND CLEARING
SKIES AND COLDER TEMPS. SLOW WARMING AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS UNDER
CONTINUING NW FLOW UNTIL UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY...WHEN A TRANSITION
TO FLAT RIDGING MAY ENSUE. WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE ACROSS THE USUAL
SPOTS TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. OTHERWISE...OVER THE FINAL THREE
DAYS OF THE FCST...THE ONLY AREA WHICH MAY HAVE SMALL CHCS FOR
PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE NW MOUNTAINS UNDER MODEST MID LVL TERRAIN
FORCED CONDITIONS..FAVORING THE UPR WRN SLOPES.
&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY AND VFR
CONDITIONS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND THEN
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. A GUSTY BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AT TIMES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF KRKS AND KCPR.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING AND BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE
WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW FROM THE RED DESERT THROUGH NATRONA AND
JOHNSON COUNTIES ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT POTENTIAL ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION MAY BE FOUND BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES WESTERN WYOMING.
&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...BRAUN
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS






000
FXUS65 KRIW 302110
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
310 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

A FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SATELLITE
IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE SO SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL SEE A BROKEN DECK OF CLOUDS
BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL AND INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...WE
HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER A BIT IN THOSE AREAS BUT ONLY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR MOST AREAS. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE FOR INCREASE IN THE
BREEZE LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT A BIT AND
BRING A GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAVORED
AREAS LIKE FROM ROCK SPRINGS TO CASPER. HOWEVER...700 MILLIBAR WINDS
TOP OUT AT ONLY 35 KNOTS SO IT LOOKS ONLY BREEZY...NOT WINDY AND ANY
HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS ALMOST CERTAINLY WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY REACHING THE 70S IN SOME WARMER BASIN LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH IF
CLOUDS ARE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THIS MAY INHIBIT HEATING JUST A
BIT. AS FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT AND THE ALL IMPORTANT TRICK OR TREATING
FORECAST...IT LOOKS LIKE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND 50S DEPENDING ON YOUR
ELEVATION SO THINGS LOOK GOOD FOR THE ANNUAL CANDY GATHERING. LATE
AT NIGHT AFTER THE KIDS HAVE HOPEFULLY GONE TO SLEEP...SOME MOISTURE
ADVECTING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST COULD BRING A FEW SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE DIVIDE BUT THESE LOOK
INCONSEQUENTIAL ENOUGH THAT WE LEFT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

BEGINNING OF FCST...END OF UPR RIDGING WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW FIRMLY IN
PLACE AHEAD OF WRN CONUS TROF AND FIRST INFLUENCES OF JET STREAK/SW
BEING FELT OVR THE WRN FA. HOWEVER...LOW MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP QPF ON THE LOW SIDE AT LEAST THRU
THE FIRST 12 HRS OF THE FCST. WEAK CYCLOGENESIS JUST STARTING TO
PROCEED OVR THE GREAT BASIN WITH LEE SIDE TROFFING SETTING EAST OF
THE BIGHORNS. AS SFC P GRAD INCREASES WITH THIS DEVELOPING STORM
SYSTEM...WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE USUAL WIND CORRIDOR WITH ALSO INCREASE BY
SAT AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS 45 TO 50 MPH COMMON INTO THE EVENING
PERIOD BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL RETURN AGAIN BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

BY SAT NIGHT...ADDITIONAL CHANGES FROM THE
APPROACHING...INTENSIFYING AND EVOLVING SYSTEM REALLY START TO COME
INTO PLAY AS SFC/UPR LOW SPINS UP OVR NRN WY/SRN MT...ALONG/NEAR
INTERSECTION WITH LEE TROF. AS CYCLONE SPINS UP...EXPECT VERY STRONG
WINDS ALOFT INVOF LOW SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING AFFECTING THE
MOUNTAIN PEAKS WEST OF BUFFALO FOR A SHORT PERIOD BEFORE THE LOW
MOVES OFF TO THE NNE. ACROSS THE WRN CWA...N/S ORIENTED JET MOVES
OVERHEAD...SUBSTANTIALLY INTENSIFYING PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH...BY
THIS TIME...INCREASED  MOISTURE. THIS FIRST BURST OF PRECIP...AND
RAIN CHANGING SNOW...WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTH AND INTO CNTRL MT BY
SUN MORNING. MOUNTAINS SHOULD RECEIVE UP TO 3 INCHES OF WET SNOWFALL
FROM THIS FIRST HIT. THEN...AS THE CYCLONE MATURES RATHER QUICKLY
WITH RAPIDLY DEVELOPING INSTABILITY UNDER COOL UPR TEMPS...AND
DECENT BAROCLINICITY...A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL BREAK OUT
WEST OF THE SFC LOW...WITH GREATEST INTENSITY NEARLY DIRECTLY UNDER
THE H5 TROF AXIS OVR NERN ID/WRN MT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BIT
LIGHTER BUT MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL/SNOWFALL ACROSS THE WRN TO NRN
CWA. ANOTHER AREA OF GOOD PRECIP WILL BE CO-LOCATED WITH THE UPR JET
FROM NCNTRL CO THRU SERN WY...WELL OUT OF THE FA. ATTM...IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT THE MOUNTAINS OF SW YELLOWSTONE AND PERHAPS THE TETONS
TO THE SOUTH WILL BE IN THE BEST POSITION FOR GREATEST SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL...WITH MUCH OF THIS REGION RECEIVING 3 TO 6 INCHES IN A 24
HR PERIOD...WITH LOCALIZED PREFERRED AREAS GETTING UP TO 8 INCHES.
PERHAPS ANOTHER INCH OR TWO MAY BE HAD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THIS IS MUCH MORE SPECULATION THAN EMPIRICAL
SCIENCE AT THIS POINT. LOWER ELEVATIONS LOOK TO BE THE RECIPIENTS OF
UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE SAME PERIOD OF TIME. ALL THESE
SNOWFALL NUMBERS PUT THE WRN FA DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO ADVISORY
CONDITIONS. IF THE LOCATION OF THE UPR AND SFC LOWS HAD PLACED
CYCLOGENESIS FURTHER EWD...OR WAS SLOWER TO DEVELOP AND
EVOLVE...THIS WOULD/COULD HAVE BEEN MUCH WORSE THAN IT WILL BE.
STILL...THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WARRANTS CONTINUED
MONITORING IN CASE THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT SPATIAL OR TEMPORAL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN NOW AND THEN THAT MAY CAUSE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL
TO INCREASE. LATER SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE ONLY
REALISTIC PERIOD WHERE MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE ANY CHANCE FOR
PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND AS TROF AXIS SWINGS THRU.

BY MON AFTERNOON...MOST TRACES OF THE STORM SYSTEM...BOTH SFC AND
ALOFT...WILL HAVE MOVED E TO SE OF WY...LEAVING BEHIND CLEARING
SKIES AND COLDER TEMPS. SLOW WARMING AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS UNDER
CONTINUING NW FLOW UNTIL UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY...WHEN A TRANSITION
TO FLAT RIDGING MAY ENSUE. WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE ACROSS THE USUAL
SPOTS TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. OTHERWISE...OVER THE FINAL THREE
DAYS OF THE FCST...THE ONLY AREA WHICH MAY HAVE SMALL CHCS FOR
PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE NW MOUNTAINS UNDER MODEST MID LVL TERRAIN
FORCED CONDITIONS..FAVORING THE UPR WRN SLOPES.
&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY AND VFR
CONDITIONS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND THEN
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. A GUSTY BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AT TIMES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF KRKS AND KCPR.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING AND BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE
WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW FROM THE RED DESERT THROUGH NATRONA AND
JOHNSON COUNTIES ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT POTENTIAL ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION MAY BE FOUND BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES WESTERN WYOMING.
&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...BRAUN
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS






000
FXUS65 KRIW 302049
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
249 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

A FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SATELLITE
IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE SO SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL SEE A BROKEN DECK OF CLOUDS
BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL AND INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...WE
HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER A BIT IN THOSE AREAS BUT ONLY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR MOST AREAS. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE FOR INCREASE IN THE
BREEZE LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT A BIT AND
BRING A GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAVORED
AREAS LIKE FROM ROCK SPRINGS TO CASPER. HOWEVER...700 MILLIBAR WINDS
TOP OUT AT ONLY 35 KNOTS SO IT LOOKS ONLY BREEZY...NOT WINDY AND ANY
HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS ALMOST CERTAINLY WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY REACHING THE 70S IN SOME WARMER BASIN LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH IF
CLOUDS ARE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THIS MAY INHIBIT HEATING JUST A
BIT. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING LATE AT NIGHT.
WE CAN`T RULE OUT A STRAY SPRINKLE OR FLURRY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS LATE AT NIGHT...BUT IT SO INCONSEQUENTIAL WE LEFT IT OUT
OF THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

BEGINNING OF FCST...END OF UPR RIDGING WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW FIRMLY IN
PLACE AHEAD OF WRN CONUS TROF AND FIRST INFLUENCES OF JET STREAK/SW
BEING FELT OVR THE WRN FA. HOWEVER...LOW MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP QPF ON THE LOW SIDE AT LEAST THRU
THE FIRST 12 HRS OF THE FCST. WEAK CYCLOGENESIS JUST STARTING TO
PROCEED OVR THE GREAT BASIN WITH LEE SIDE TROFFING SETTING EAST OF
THE BIGHORNS. AS SFC P GRAD INCREASES WITH THIS DEVELOPING STORM
SYSTEM...WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE USUAL WIND CORRIDOR WITH ALSO INCREASE BY
SAT AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS 45 TO 50 MPH COMMON INTO THE EVENING
PERIOD BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL RETURN AGAIN BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

BY SAT NIGHT...ADDITIONAL CHANGES FROM THE
APPROACHING...INTENSIFYING AND EVOLVING SYSTEM REALLY START TO COME
INTO PLAY AS SFC/UPR LOW SPINS UP OVR NRN WY/SRN MT...ALONG/NEAR
INTERSECTION WITH LEE TROF. AS CYCLONE SPINS UP...EXPECT VERY STRONG
WINDS ALOFT INVOF LOW SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING AFFECTING THE
MOUNTAIN PEAKS WEST OF BUFFALO FOR A SHORT PERIOD BEFORE THE LOW
MOVES OFF TO THE NNE. ACROSS THE WRN CWA...N/S ORIENTED JET MOVES
OVERHEAD...SUBSTANTIALLY INTENSIFYING PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH...BY
THIS TIME...INCREASED  MOISTURE. THIS FIRST BURST OF PRECIP...AND
RAIN CHANGING SNOW...WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTH AND INTO CNTRL MT BY
SUN MORNING. MOUNTAINS SHOULD RECEIVE UP TO 3 INCHES OF WET SNOWFALL
FROM THIS FIRST HIT. THEN...AS THE CYCLONE MATURES RATHER QUICKLY
WITH RAPIDLY DEVELOPING INSTABILITY UNDER COOL UPR TEMPS...AND
DECENT BAROCLINICITY...A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL BREAK OUT
WEST OF THE SFC LOW...WITH GREATEST INTENSITY NEARLY DIRECTLY UNDER
THE H5 TROF AXIS OVR NERN ID/WRN MT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BIT
LIGHTER BUT MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL/SNOWFALL ACROSS THE WRN TO NRN
CWA. ANOTHER AREA OF GOOD PRECIP WILL BE CO-LOCATED WITH THE UPR JET
FROM NCNTRL CO THRU SERN WY...WELL OUT OF THE FA. ATTM...IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT THE MOUNTAINS OF SW YELLOWSTONE AND PERHAPS THE TETONS
TO THE SOUTH WILL BE IN THE BEST POSITION FOR GREATEST SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL...WITH MUCH OF THIS REGION RECEIVING 3 TO 6 INCHES IN A 24
HR PERIOD...WITH LOCALIZED PREFERRED AREAS GETTING UP TO 8 INCHES.
PERHAPS ANOTHER INCH OR TWO MAY BE HAD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THIS IS MUCH MORE SPECULATION THAN EMPIRICAL
SCIENCE AT THIS POINT. LOWER ELEVATIONS LOOK TO BE THE RECIPIENTS OF
UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE SAME PERIOD OF TIME. ALL THESE
SNOWFALL NUMBERS PUT THE WRN FA DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO ADVISORY
CONDITIONS. IF THE LOCATION OF THE UPR AND SFC LOWS HAD PLACED
CYCLOGENESIS FURTHER EWD...OR WAS SLOWER TO DEVELOP AND
EVOLVE...THIS WOULD/COULD HAVE BEEN MUCH WORSE THAN IT WILL BE.
STILL...THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WARRANTS CONTINUED
MONITORING IN CASE THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT SPATIAL OR TEMPORAL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN NOW AND THEN THAT MAY CAUSE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL
TO INCREASE. LATER SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE ONLY
REALISTIC PERIOD WHERE MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE ANY CHANCE FOR
PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND AS TROF AXIS SWINGS THRU.

BY MON AFTERNOON...MOST TRACES OF THE STORM SYSTEM...BOTH SFC AND
ALOFT...WILL HAVE MOVED E TO SE OF WY...LEAVING BEHIND CLEARING
SKIES AND COLDER TEMPS. SLOW WARMING AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS UNDER
CONTINUING NW FLOW UNTIL UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY...WHEN A TRANSITION
TO FLAT RIDGING MAY ENSUE. WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE ACROSS THE USUAL
SPOTS TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. OTHERWISE...OVER THE FINAL THREE
DAYS OF THE FCST...THE ONLY AREA WHICH MAY HAVE SMALL CHCS FOR
PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE NW MOUNTAINS UNDER MODEST MID LVL TERRAIN
FORCED CONDITIONS..FAVORING THE UPR WRN SLOPES.
&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY AND VFR
CONDITIONS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND THEN
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. A GUSTY BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AT TIMES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF KRKS AND KCPR.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING AND BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE
WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW FROM THE RED DESERT THROUGH NATRONA AND
JOHNSON COUNTIES ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT POTENTIAL ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION MAY BE FOUND BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES WESTERN WYOMING.
&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...BRAUN
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS






000
FXUS65 KCYS 302035
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
235 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

TRANQUIL WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
DRIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN WY. EXTENSIVE DECK OF STRATUS
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS A SIGN OF WHAT IS TO COME LATER TONIGHT
AS A 1032 MB SFC HIGH MOVES SOUTH. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AS THIS OCCURS. NAM BL RH PROGS ARE RATHER
MOIST AND FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW IMPRESSIVE LLVL WARM ADVECTION. GOOD
SETUP FOR AT LEAST LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLY FOG...THOUGH SFC WINDS
COULD STAY ELEVATED ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS MIXED NEAR THE SFC. HAVE
MAINTAINED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. WENT SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT
WITH H7 TEMPS RAPIDLY INCREASING BETWEEN 06-12Z...SUGGESTING STEADY
OR EVEN RISING TEMPS.

STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF THROUGH THE MORNING ON FRI BUT WILL
LIKELY STAY AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO IMPACT TEMPS. NO REASON TO DEVIATE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST WITH SUB-GUIDANCE TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS. FRI
WILL BE BREEZY. H7 SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO UNDERCUT THE UPPER RIDGE
DURING THE AFTN...CONTRIBUTING TO A BELT OF STRONGER LLVL FLOW IN
EXCESS OF 40 KTS OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND
35 MPH OR SO WHERE DIURNAL HEATING IS BETTER...MAINLY WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SAT
WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PCPN MOST LIKELY CONFINED TO
THE MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW SMALLER WAVES...BUT EVEN THAT SHOULD BE
VERY ISOLATED WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. GFS H7 TEMPS AROUND 7-8
DEG C SUGGEST HIGHS MAY BE IN THE 70S OVER THE PLAINS. WINDY AGAIN
ON SAT AFTN OVER CARBON COUNTY. AN INCREASING H85 CAG-CPR GRADIENT
SUGGESTS ARL MAY SEE GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT OR
EARLY SUN...BUT DO NOT EXPECT WARNING CRITERIA TO BE MET ATTM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

ONE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS MONTANA
SUNDAY WHILE A SECOND UPPER LOW SHOULD CLOSE OFF OVER THE FAR SW
CONUS. BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE OVER THE SE PART OF THE CWA
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS JET DYNAMICS SHOULD OVERRUN MODEST
UPSLOPE SFC FLOW. NOT A LOT OF PCPN SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER
THOUGH SOME MTNS SNOWS ARE EXPECTED. COOL AND MAINLY DRY MONDAY AS
THE UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE CWA BY LATE IN THE DAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOK TO BE DRY WITH A SLOW WARMUP UNDER
WNW FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR OVER ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LATER TONIGHT A COLD
FRONT WILL BACK WESTWARD AND AGAINST THE MTNS. UPSLOPE FLOW OVER
THE PLAINS SHOULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AFFECTING
MAINLY THE PANHANDLE AFT 06Z WITH CLOUDS BREAKING UP LATER FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WARMEST SATURDAY. AFTERNOON RH VALUES
SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY
RETURN ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BOTH FRI AND SAT AFTN
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR PCPN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SUN AND MON.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...CLH




000
FXUS63 KUNR 302023
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
223 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH SURFACE HIGH
OVER SASKATCHEWAN. LOW STRATUS COVERS MUCH OF ND AND
NORTHERN/EASTERN SD. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ABOUT 10-15 KTS...AND
TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 50S FARTHER
SOUTH.

SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME
LIGHT AND EASTERLY. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AS
WELL...DEVELOPING INTO FOG AS THEY APPROACH HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FOG
IS EXPECTED FORM AROUND THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS EARLY THIS EVENING AND
EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN SD OVERNIGHT...WRAPPING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN HILLS INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S ACROSS CENTRAL SD TO THE LOWER
30S IN PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WY.

FOG WILL DIMINISH BY MID MORNING. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE
EAST ON FRIDAY...AND RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE
STRONGEST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF SD...REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AROUND NOON. AREAS
TO THE EAST AND SOUTH WILL BE MARGINAL...BUT DECIDED TO ADD THEM
TO THE WIND ADVISORY. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL SD...TO THE UPPER 50S IN PARTS
OF NORTHEASTERN WY.

ANYONE PARTAKING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES FRIDAY EVENING WILL HAVE DRY
AND BREEZY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL SD...TO THE MID 50S IN NORTHEASTERN WY.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY AS STRONG UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE. MAIN UPPER LOW SWINGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY...WITH WEAK
COLD FRONT SLIDING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SECONDARY LOW
CONTINUES TO DIG INTO FOUR CORNERS AREA. WITH SPLITTING UPPER
FLOW...MAIN FORCING REMAINS NORTH AND SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA. BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...REACHING THE
NORTHERN/EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING...WITH LIFR CIGS/VSBY AROUND THE
BLACK HILLS. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR SDZ001-002-
     012>014-026-031-032-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7







000
FXUS65 KRIW 301728
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1128 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AT LEAST TWO MORE PLEASANT FALL DAYS ARE IN STORE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER BONUS DAY IN THE EASTERN CWA SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE EAST AND THROUGH
FRIDAY ELSEWHERE BEFORE INCREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIP COOL THINGS OFF
SATURDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PACIFIC STATES WILL SHIFT EAST AND
BE OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN THE FLOW WILL BACK TO A MORE
SOUTHWEST FLOW USHERING IN THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM AIR OVER OUR CWA
FRIDAY. A 1037MB SFC HIGH DIVING SSE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
NOT DRIVE A BACKDOOR COOL FRONT FAR ENOUGH WEST TO AFFECT OUR CWA
THURSDAY. THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST OVER 50N/145W WILL SHIFT EAST AND MAKE LANDFALL SATURDAY AND
THEN APPROACH THE ROCKIES BY 12Z SUNDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND THE EURO
CLOSE OFF AND TRACK THE ASCT UPPER LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS NW WY WITH
THE EURO A BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS. EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS HAD THE
LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL WY BUT NOW MORE
RESEMBLES THE EURO. THE GFS TRACKS THE LOW ACROSS NW WY AROUND 12Z
SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AHEAD OF THIS
APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM.

AS A RESULT OF THIS WX SYSTEM...SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE AN
INTERESTING DAY. A WELL DEVELOPED SFC LOW WILL TRACK FROM EASTERN
IDAHO TO ALONG THE WY/MT BORDER SATURDAY COMPLETE WITH A WELL
DEVELOPED WARM FRONT AND PACIFIC COLD FRONT AND A LIKELY CLASSIC
COMMA CLOUD SIGNATURE. THE H7 LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM IDAHO TO
MT WITH A WEAKER H7 CIRCULATION OVER NW WY SATURDAY. HIGHEST POPS
HAVE BEEN PAINTED ACROSS WESTERN WY BY SATURDAY EVE WITH LIKELY POPS
AND AT LEAST CHC POPS UP NORTH. ISOLD IF ANY IN THE CENTRAL AND
EAST. SOME LEFT FRONT QUAD DYNAMICS MAY COME INTO PLAY SAT NT AS THE
JET SAGS SOUTH. WE SHOULD SEE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN
WY WHERE LIFTED INDICES WILL BE NEGATIVE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE SATURDAY OVER WHAT OCCURS FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH NEARS THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY FROM KRKS TO KCPR. RAIN IN THE WEST WILL TURN TO
SNOW SAT NIGHT AS H7 TEMPS DROP -7C.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

GFS HAS TRENDED FURTHER WEST WITH THE TRACK OF OUR WEEKEND SYSTEM
AS EXPECTED LAST NIGHT. AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...THE MAIN
CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY BE AROUND THE SWRN CORNER OF MT WITH
SNOW FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
OFF TO THE NE...FAVORABLE NW FLOW BEHIND IT SHOULD KEEP SNOW GOING
ACROSS THE WEST...SPREADING INTO THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS. BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY BE OVER NERN MT WITH COLD...CYCLONIC
NW FLOW OVER THE AREA. COLDEST H5 AIR IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO CAN RESULT IN SNOW BANDS OVER CENTRAL
WYO INCLUDING THE WIND RIVER BASIN. GFS IS MOST FAVORABLE WITH
MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS PROVIDING AT LEAST SOME SUPPORT. WILL PUT
IN SOME CHANCE POPS SPREADING SE INTO THE WIND RIVER BASIN AND WRN
NATRONA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW LINGERING INTO MONDAY MRNG.
COULD SEE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE WRN MTNS SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN FAVORED NW FLOW. COLDEST
H7 AIR COMES IN BEHIND THIS TROUGH ON MONDAY FOR THE COLDEST DAY OF
THE EXTENDED. BOTH THE HIGHS MONDAY AND THE LOWS MONDAY NIGHT. THEN
SLOW MODERATION THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL FOR A MILD DAY
THURSDAY WITH SOME WIND AND BETTER MIXING. RAISED TEMPERATURES SOME
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THEY COULD BE IF WE CAN
FULLY MIX THE ATMOSPHERE BY THURSDAY WHEN POTENTIAL WINDS KICK IN.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY AND
VFR CONDITIONS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND THEN
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. A GUSTY BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AT TIMES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF KRKS AND KCPR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BRINGING BENIGN
CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
LAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE NEXT POTENTIAL ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION MAY BE FOUND BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES WESTERN WYOMING.


&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON












000
FXUS65 KRIW 301728
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1128 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AT LEAST TWO MORE PLEASANT FALL DAYS ARE IN STORE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER BONUS DAY IN THE EASTERN CWA SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE EAST AND THROUGH
FRIDAY ELSEWHERE BEFORE INCREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIP COOL THINGS OFF
SATURDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PACIFIC STATES WILL SHIFT EAST AND
BE OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN THE FLOW WILL BACK TO A MORE
SOUTHWEST FLOW USHERING IN THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM AIR OVER OUR CWA
FRIDAY. A 1037MB SFC HIGH DIVING SSE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
NOT DRIVE A BACKDOOR COOL FRONT FAR ENOUGH WEST TO AFFECT OUR CWA
THURSDAY. THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST OVER 50N/145W WILL SHIFT EAST AND MAKE LANDFALL SATURDAY AND
THEN APPROACH THE ROCKIES BY 12Z SUNDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND THE EURO
CLOSE OFF AND TRACK THE ASCT UPPER LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS NW WY WITH
THE EURO A BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS. EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS HAD THE
LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL WY BUT NOW MORE
RESEMBLES THE EURO. THE GFS TRACKS THE LOW ACROSS NW WY AROUND 12Z
SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AHEAD OF THIS
APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM.

AS A RESULT OF THIS WX SYSTEM...SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE AN
INTERESTING DAY. A WELL DEVELOPED SFC LOW WILL TRACK FROM EASTERN
IDAHO TO ALONG THE WY/MT BORDER SATURDAY COMPLETE WITH A WELL
DEVELOPED WARM FRONT AND PACIFIC COLD FRONT AND A LIKELY CLASSIC
COMMA CLOUD SIGNATURE. THE H7 LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM IDAHO TO
MT WITH A WEAKER H7 CIRCULATION OVER NW WY SATURDAY. HIGHEST POPS
HAVE BEEN PAINTED ACROSS WESTERN WY BY SATURDAY EVE WITH LIKELY POPS
AND AT LEAST CHC POPS UP NORTH. ISOLD IF ANY IN THE CENTRAL AND
EAST. SOME LEFT FRONT QUAD DYNAMICS MAY COME INTO PLAY SAT NT AS THE
JET SAGS SOUTH. WE SHOULD SEE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN
WY WHERE LIFTED INDICES WILL BE NEGATIVE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE SATURDAY OVER WHAT OCCURS FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH NEARS THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY FROM KRKS TO KCPR. RAIN IN THE WEST WILL TURN TO
SNOW SAT NIGHT AS H7 TEMPS DROP -7C.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

GFS HAS TRENDED FURTHER WEST WITH THE TRACK OF OUR WEEKEND SYSTEM
AS EXPECTED LAST NIGHT. AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...THE MAIN
CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY BE AROUND THE SWRN CORNER OF MT WITH
SNOW FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
OFF TO THE NE...FAVORABLE NW FLOW BEHIND IT SHOULD KEEP SNOW GOING
ACROSS THE WEST...SPREADING INTO THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS. BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY BE OVER NERN MT WITH COLD...CYCLONIC
NW FLOW OVER THE AREA. COLDEST H5 AIR IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO CAN RESULT IN SNOW BANDS OVER CENTRAL
WYO INCLUDING THE WIND RIVER BASIN. GFS IS MOST FAVORABLE WITH
MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS PROVIDING AT LEAST SOME SUPPORT. WILL PUT
IN SOME CHANCE POPS SPREADING SE INTO THE WIND RIVER BASIN AND WRN
NATRONA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW LINGERING INTO MONDAY MRNG.
COULD SEE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE WRN MTNS SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN FAVORED NW FLOW. COLDEST
H7 AIR COMES IN BEHIND THIS TROUGH ON MONDAY FOR THE COLDEST DAY OF
THE EXTENDED. BOTH THE HIGHS MONDAY AND THE LOWS MONDAY NIGHT. THEN
SLOW MODERATION THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL FOR A MILD DAY
THURSDAY WITH SOME WIND AND BETTER MIXING. RAISED TEMPERATURES SOME
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THEY COULD BE IF WE CAN
FULLY MIX THE ATMOSPHERE BY THURSDAY WHEN POTENTIAL WINDS KICK IN.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY AND
VFR CONDITIONS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND THEN
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. A GUSTY BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AT TIMES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF KRKS AND KCPR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BRINGING BENIGN
CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
LAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE NEXT POTENTIAL ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION MAY BE FOUND BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES WESTERN WYOMING.


&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON












000
FXUS65 KRIW 301728
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1128 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AT LEAST TWO MORE PLEASANT FALL DAYS ARE IN STORE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER BONUS DAY IN THE EASTERN CWA SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE EAST AND THROUGH
FRIDAY ELSEWHERE BEFORE INCREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIP COOL THINGS OFF
SATURDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PACIFIC STATES WILL SHIFT EAST AND
BE OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN THE FLOW WILL BACK TO A MORE
SOUTHWEST FLOW USHERING IN THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM AIR OVER OUR CWA
FRIDAY. A 1037MB SFC HIGH DIVING SSE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
NOT DRIVE A BACKDOOR COOL FRONT FAR ENOUGH WEST TO AFFECT OUR CWA
THURSDAY. THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST OVER 50N/145W WILL SHIFT EAST AND MAKE LANDFALL SATURDAY AND
THEN APPROACH THE ROCKIES BY 12Z SUNDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND THE EURO
CLOSE OFF AND TRACK THE ASCT UPPER LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS NW WY WITH
THE EURO A BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS. EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS HAD THE
LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL WY BUT NOW MORE
RESEMBLES THE EURO. THE GFS TRACKS THE LOW ACROSS NW WY AROUND 12Z
SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AHEAD OF THIS
APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM.

AS A RESULT OF THIS WX SYSTEM...SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE AN
INTERESTING DAY. A WELL DEVELOPED SFC LOW WILL TRACK FROM EASTERN
IDAHO TO ALONG THE WY/MT BORDER SATURDAY COMPLETE WITH A WELL
DEVELOPED WARM FRONT AND PACIFIC COLD FRONT AND A LIKELY CLASSIC
COMMA CLOUD SIGNATURE. THE H7 LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM IDAHO TO
MT WITH A WEAKER H7 CIRCULATION OVER NW WY SATURDAY. HIGHEST POPS
HAVE BEEN PAINTED ACROSS WESTERN WY BY SATURDAY EVE WITH LIKELY POPS
AND AT LEAST CHC POPS UP NORTH. ISOLD IF ANY IN THE CENTRAL AND
EAST. SOME LEFT FRONT QUAD DYNAMICS MAY COME INTO PLAY SAT NT AS THE
JET SAGS SOUTH. WE SHOULD SEE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN
WY WHERE LIFTED INDICES WILL BE NEGATIVE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE SATURDAY OVER WHAT OCCURS FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH NEARS THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY FROM KRKS TO KCPR. RAIN IN THE WEST WILL TURN TO
SNOW SAT NIGHT AS H7 TEMPS DROP -7C.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

GFS HAS TRENDED FURTHER WEST WITH THE TRACK OF OUR WEEKEND SYSTEM
AS EXPECTED LAST NIGHT. AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...THE MAIN
CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY BE AROUND THE SWRN CORNER OF MT WITH
SNOW FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
OFF TO THE NE...FAVORABLE NW FLOW BEHIND IT SHOULD KEEP SNOW GOING
ACROSS THE WEST...SPREADING INTO THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS. BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY BE OVER NERN MT WITH COLD...CYCLONIC
NW FLOW OVER THE AREA. COLDEST H5 AIR IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO CAN RESULT IN SNOW BANDS OVER CENTRAL
WYO INCLUDING THE WIND RIVER BASIN. GFS IS MOST FAVORABLE WITH
MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS PROVIDING AT LEAST SOME SUPPORT. WILL PUT
IN SOME CHANCE POPS SPREADING SE INTO THE WIND RIVER BASIN AND WRN
NATRONA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW LINGERING INTO MONDAY MRNG.
COULD SEE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE WRN MTNS SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN FAVORED NW FLOW. COLDEST
H7 AIR COMES IN BEHIND THIS TROUGH ON MONDAY FOR THE COLDEST DAY OF
THE EXTENDED. BOTH THE HIGHS MONDAY AND THE LOWS MONDAY NIGHT. THEN
SLOW MODERATION THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL FOR A MILD DAY
THURSDAY WITH SOME WIND AND BETTER MIXING. RAISED TEMPERATURES SOME
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THEY COULD BE IF WE CAN
FULLY MIX THE ATMOSPHERE BY THURSDAY WHEN POTENTIAL WINDS KICK IN.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY AND
VFR CONDITIONS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND THEN
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. A GUSTY BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AT TIMES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF KRKS AND KCPR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BRINGING BENIGN
CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
LAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE NEXT POTENTIAL ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION MAY BE FOUND BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES WESTERN WYOMING.


&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON












000
FXUS65 KRIW 301728
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1128 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AT LEAST TWO MORE PLEASANT FALL DAYS ARE IN STORE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER BONUS DAY IN THE EASTERN CWA SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE EAST AND THROUGH
FRIDAY ELSEWHERE BEFORE INCREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIP COOL THINGS OFF
SATURDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PACIFIC STATES WILL SHIFT EAST AND
BE OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN THE FLOW WILL BACK TO A MORE
SOUTHWEST FLOW USHERING IN THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM AIR OVER OUR CWA
FRIDAY. A 1037MB SFC HIGH DIVING SSE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
NOT DRIVE A BACKDOOR COOL FRONT FAR ENOUGH WEST TO AFFECT OUR CWA
THURSDAY. THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST OVER 50N/145W WILL SHIFT EAST AND MAKE LANDFALL SATURDAY AND
THEN APPROACH THE ROCKIES BY 12Z SUNDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND THE EURO
CLOSE OFF AND TRACK THE ASCT UPPER LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS NW WY WITH
THE EURO A BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS. EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS HAD THE
LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL WY BUT NOW MORE
RESEMBLES THE EURO. THE GFS TRACKS THE LOW ACROSS NW WY AROUND 12Z
SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AHEAD OF THIS
APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM.

AS A RESULT OF THIS WX SYSTEM...SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE AN
INTERESTING DAY. A WELL DEVELOPED SFC LOW WILL TRACK FROM EASTERN
IDAHO TO ALONG THE WY/MT BORDER SATURDAY COMPLETE WITH A WELL
DEVELOPED WARM FRONT AND PACIFIC COLD FRONT AND A LIKELY CLASSIC
COMMA CLOUD SIGNATURE. THE H7 LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM IDAHO TO
MT WITH A WEAKER H7 CIRCULATION OVER NW WY SATURDAY. HIGHEST POPS
HAVE BEEN PAINTED ACROSS WESTERN WY BY SATURDAY EVE WITH LIKELY POPS
AND AT LEAST CHC POPS UP NORTH. ISOLD IF ANY IN THE CENTRAL AND
EAST. SOME LEFT FRONT QUAD DYNAMICS MAY COME INTO PLAY SAT NT AS THE
JET SAGS SOUTH. WE SHOULD SEE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN
WY WHERE LIFTED INDICES WILL BE NEGATIVE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE SATURDAY OVER WHAT OCCURS FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH NEARS THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY FROM KRKS TO KCPR. RAIN IN THE WEST WILL TURN TO
SNOW SAT NIGHT AS H7 TEMPS DROP -7C.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

GFS HAS TRENDED FURTHER WEST WITH THE TRACK OF OUR WEEKEND SYSTEM
AS EXPECTED LAST NIGHT. AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...THE MAIN
CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY BE AROUND THE SWRN CORNER OF MT WITH
SNOW FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
OFF TO THE NE...FAVORABLE NW FLOW BEHIND IT SHOULD KEEP SNOW GOING
ACROSS THE WEST...SPREADING INTO THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS. BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY BE OVER NERN MT WITH COLD...CYCLONIC
NW FLOW OVER THE AREA. COLDEST H5 AIR IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO CAN RESULT IN SNOW BANDS OVER CENTRAL
WYO INCLUDING THE WIND RIVER BASIN. GFS IS MOST FAVORABLE WITH
MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS PROVIDING AT LEAST SOME SUPPORT. WILL PUT
IN SOME CHANCE POPS SPREADING SE INTO THE WIND RIVER BASIN AND WRN
NATRONA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW LINGERING INTO MONDAY MRNG.
COULD SEE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE WRN MTNS SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN FAVORED NW FLOW. COLDEST
H7 AIR COMES IN BEHIND THIS TROUGH ON MONDAY FOR THE COLDEST DAY OF
THE EXTENDED. BOTH THE HIGHS MONDAY AND THE LOWS MONDAY NIGHT. THEN
SLOW MODERATION THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL FOR A MILD DAY
THURSDAY WITH SOME WIND AND BETTER MIXING. RAISED TEMPERATURES SOME
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THEY COULD BE IF WE CAN
FULLY MIX THE ATMOSPHERE BY THURSDAY WHEN POTENTIAL WINDS KICK IN.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY AND
VFR CONDITIONS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND THEN
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. A GUSTY BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AT TIMES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF KRKS AND KCPR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BRINGING BENIGN
CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
LAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE NEXT POTENTIAL ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION MAY BE FOUND BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES WESTERN WYOMING.


&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON












000
FXUS63 KUNR 301648
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1048 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPPER RIDGING IS STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE NRN PLAINS. STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS CROSSING WCNTRL CANADA AND QUICKLY PUSHING
INTO THE NRN PLAINS BEHIND A STRONG CANADIAN WAVE HEADING TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
DAY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE N/NE. STRATUS
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOLER AIR NOW OVER ERN MT/WRN ND WILL
MOVE INTO THE NW SD PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/STRATUS COULD MAKE TODAYS ACTUAL TEMPS A BIT TRICKY...BUT
FOR NOW AM GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVER NW SD...AND
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE OVER THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN WINDS
BECOME MORE NERLY...AND NAM/SREF SHOWING CONSISTENCY WITH BRINGING
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA...EXCEPT THE BLKHLS. AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS
CROSSES THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST...VERY STRONG
RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP FRIDAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT
IN UNUSUALLY BREEZY WINDS FROM THE S/SE. WINDS MAY EVEN REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA. LOW STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 40S OVER CNTRL SD TO 50S AND LOWER 60S OVER
NE WY. WINDS WILL BEGIN DECREASING IN TIME FOR TRICK OR
TREATING...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY FRI EVNG.


&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER WITH WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT OFF TO EAST AND AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE BEST ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA...SO
ONLY EXPECTING LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. COOLER AND DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...REACHING THE NORTHERN/EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD
IFR CIGS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHEAST WYOMING...WITH LIFR CIGS/VSBY AROUND THE BLACK HILLS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...77







000
FXUS63 KUNR 301648
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1048 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPPER RIDGING IS STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE NRN PLAINS. STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS CROSSING WCNTRL CANADA AND QUICKLY PUSHING
INTO THE NRN PLAINS BEHIND A STRONG CANADIAN WAVE HEADING TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
DAY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE N/NE. STRATUS
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOLER AIR NOW OVER ERN MT/WRN ND WILL
MOVE INTO THE NW SD PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/STRATUS COULD MAKE TODAYS ACTUAL TEMPS A BIT TRICKY...BUT
FOR NOW AM GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVER NW SD...AND
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE OVER THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN WINDS
BECOME MORE NERLY...AND NAM/SREF SHOWING CONSISTENCY WITH BRINGING
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA...EXCEPT THE BLKHLS. AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS
CROSSES THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST...VERY STRONG
RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP FRIDAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT
IN UNUSUALLY BREEZY WINDS FROM THE S/SE. WINDS MAY EVEN REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA. LOW STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 40S OVER CNTRL SD TO 50S AND LOWER 60S OVER
NE WY. WINDS WILL BEGIN DECREASING IN TIME FOR TRICK OR
TREATING...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY FRI EVNG.


&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER WITH WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT OFF TO EAST AND AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE BEST ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA...SO
ONLY EXPECTING LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. COOLER AND DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...REACHING THE NORTHERN/EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD
IFR CIGS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHEAST WYOMING...WITH LIFR CIGS/VSBY AROUND THE BLACK HILLS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...77







000
FXUS65 KCYS 301141
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
545 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NW FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS SE
WYOMING AND W NEBRASKA THIS MORNING WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SPILLING
ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES ALONG THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF A H3 JET
STREAK. SATELLITE TRENDS DEPICT THIS MOISTURE DECREASING...SO
SUSPECT MOST AREAS WILL BEGIN THE DAY MOSTLY CLEAR. UPSTREAM RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AT THE SFC...A 1036MB AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS
EVENING TURNING WINDS FROM NW THIS MORNING TO NE THIS EVENING AND
EVENTUALLY TO SE TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD
TODAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S...WITH SOME LOW 60S IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THE PATTERN WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A LOW STRATUS/FOG EVENT LATER
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AS SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS ENSUE. FOG
EVENTS ARE ALWAYS TRICKY TO PIN DOWN EVEN A DAY AHEAD OF TIME...BUT
DID OPT TO ADD PATCHY FOG MENTION TO MOST AREAS EAST OF I-25. MODELS
ARE HITTING THE SRN PANHANDLE THE STRONGEST...SO CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST IN FOG OCCURRENCE THERE. STRONGER WINDS OVR THE SOUTHEAST WY
PLAINS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PBL STIRRED UP ENOUGH AND CIGS
OFF THE SFC. FOG/LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
DELAYED WARMING EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL DELAY HEATING
RESULTING IN HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS. AREAS
THAT DONT SEE AM LOW CLOUDS AND FOG (WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND
DOUGLAS) WILL BENEFIT FROM BETTER MIXING AND HIGHS THAT WILL REACH
THE 60S.

RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST ON SATURDAY TURNING THE PATTERN SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WEST COAST TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 60S WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH 60S AND LOW 70S ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS. ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST BEYOND THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS SPLIT FLOW OVER THE
AREA AS PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS INTERACT WITH THE RELATIVELY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. MODELS AND CURRENT
ENSEMBLE RUNS NOW SHOW THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET BECOMING
MORE DOMINANT BY LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW ALONG I80. ALL MODELS
INDICATE THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET PUSHING WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA INTO MONTANA AS IT WEAKENS. GFS AND ECMWF IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT THE GEM IS NO WHERE NEAR WHAT THE
00Z RUN WAS SHOWING 24 HOURS AGO...SO WILL CONTINUE TO CONSIDER IT
AN OUTLIER. INCREASED POP UP TO 35 PERCENT ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER TO -8C WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE...SO SOME SNOWFALL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT DOWN TO ELEVATIONS
OF 5500 FEET. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MUCH COLDER AIR WILL PUSH INTO
THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 40S ON MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S ARE
EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR SETTLES OVER THE
REGION. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT AND GENERALLY BELOW
0.25 OF AN INCH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRACE TO TENTH OF AN INCH
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH WIND CRITERIA
APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME...EVEN IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK RESULTING IN BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOL TEMPERATURES.
MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY...WITH SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERING
ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR. INCREASED POP ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 15
TO 25 PERCENT. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO NEAR
NORMAL...AND GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)

WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT INTO TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FOR FOG LATER
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR IFR VIS
AND CIGS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... ANOTHER DRY DAY IN STORE...WITH MUCH LESS WIND
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY MILD FOR
BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL BE EXCELLENT IN AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE TONIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOP. FRIDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY WITH FAIRLY MILD CONDITIONS WEST WITH CONTINUED COOL
TEMPS EAST. DRY AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE
AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AND A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAH
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...CAH




000
FXUS65 KCYS 300955
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
355 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NW FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS SE
WYOMING AND W NEBRASKA THIS MORNING WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SPILLING
ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES ALONG THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF A H3 JET
STREAK. SATELLITE TRENDS DEPICT THIS MOISTURE DECREASING...SO
SUSPECT MOST AREAS WILL BEGIN THE DAY MOSTLY CLEAR. UPSTREAM RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AT THE SFC...A 1036MB AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS
EVENING TURNING WINDS FROM NW THIS MORNING TO NE THIS EVENING AND
EVENTUALLY TO SE TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD
TODAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S...WITH SOME LOW 60S IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THE PATTERN WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A LOW STRATUS/FOG EVENT LATER
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AS SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS ENSUE. FOG
EVENTS ARE ALWAYS TRICKY TO PIN DOWN EVEN A DAY AHEAD OF TIME...BUT
DID OPT TO ADD PATCHY FOG MENTION TO MOST AREAS EAST OF I-25. MODELS
ARE HITTING THE SRN PANHANDLE THE STRONGEST...SO CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST IN FOG OCCURRENCE THERE. STRONGER WINDS OVR THE SOUTHEAST WY
PLAINS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PBL STIRRED UP ENOUGH AND CIGS
OFF THE SFC. FOG/LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
DELAYED WARMING EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL DELAY HEATING
RESULTING IN HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS. AREAS
THAT DONT SEE AM LOW CLOUDS AND FOG (WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND
DOUGLAS) WILL BENEFIT FROM BETTER MIXING AND HIGHS THAT WILL REACH
THE 60S.

RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST ON SATURDAY TURNING THE PATTERN SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WEST COAST TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 60S WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH 60S AND LOW 70S ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS. ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST BEYOND THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS SPLIT FLOW OVER THE
AREA AS PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS INTERACT WITH THE RELATIVELY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. MODELS AND CURRENT
ENSEMBLE RUNS NOW SHOW THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET BECOMING
MORE DOMINANT BY LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW ALONG I80. ALL MODELS
INDICATE THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET PUSHING WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA INTO MONTANA AS IT WEAKENS. GFS AND ECMWF IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT THE GEM IS NO WHERE NEAR WHAT THE
00Z RUN WAS SHOWING 24 HOURS AGO...SO WILL CONTINUE TO CONSIDER IT
AN OUTLIER. INCREASED POP UP TO 35 PERCENT ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER TO -8C WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE...SO SOME SNOWFALL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT DOWN TO ELEVATIONS
OF 5500 FEET. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MUCH COLDER AIR WILL PUSH INTO
THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 40S ON MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S ARE
EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR SETTLES OVER THE
REGION. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT AND GENERALLY BELOW
0.25 OF AN INCH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRACE TO TENTH OF AN INCH
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH WIND CRITERIA
APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME...EVEN IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK RESULTING IN BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOL TEMPERATURES.
MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY...WITH SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERING
ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR. INCREASED POP ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 15
TO 25 PERCENT. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO NEAR
NORMAL...AND GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING)

GUSTY WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
NORTH THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG LATER THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER... ANOTHER DRY DAY IN STORE...WITH MUCH LESS WIND
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY MILD FOR
BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL BE EXCELLENT IN AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE TONIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOP. FRIDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY WITH FAIRLY MILD CONDITIONS WEST WITH CONTINUED COOL
TEMPS EAST. DRY AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE
AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AND A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAH
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...CAH




000
FXUS63 KUNR 300938
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
338 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPPER RIDGING IS STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE NRN PLAINS. STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS CROSSING WCNTRL CANADA AND QUICKLY PUSHING
INTO THE NRN PLAINS BEHIND A STRONG CANADIAN WAVE HEADING TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
DAY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE N/NE. STRATUS
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOLER AIR NOW OVER ERN MT/WRN ND WILL
MOVE INTO THE NW SD PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/STRATUS COULD MAKE TODAYS ACTUAL TEMPS A BIT TRICKY...BUT
FOR NOW AM GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVER NW SD...AND
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE OVER THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN WINDS
BECOME MORE NERLY...AND NAM/SREF SHOWING CONSISTENCY WITH BRINGING
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA...EXCEPT THE BLKHLS. AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS
CROSSES THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST...VERY STRONG
RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP FRIDAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT
IN UNUSUALLY BREEZY WINDS FROM THE S/SE. WINDS MAY EVEN REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA. LOW STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 40S OVER CNTRL SD TO 50S AND LOWER 60S OVER
NE WY. WINDS WILL BEGIN DECREASING IN TIME FOR TRICK OR
TREATING...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY FRI EVNG.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER WITH WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT OFF TO EAST AND AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE BEST ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA...SO
ONLY EXPECTING LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. COOLER AND DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF FAR NORTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND
18Z FRIDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10







000
FXUS65 KRIW 300904
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
304 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AT LEAST TWO MORE PLEASANT FALL DAYS ARE IN STORE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER BONUS DAY IN THE EASTERN CWA SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE EAST AND THROUGH
FRIDAY ELSEWHERE BEFORE INCREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIP COOL THINGS OFF
SATURDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PACIFIC STATES WILL SHIFT EAST AND
BE OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN THE FLOW WILL BACK TO A MORE
SOUTHWEST FLOW USHERING IN THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM AIR OVER OUR CWA
FRIDAY. A 1037MB SFC HIGH DIVING SSE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
NOT DRIVE A BACKDOOR COOL FRONT FAR ENOUGH WEST TO AFFECT OUR CWA
THURSDAY. THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST OVER 50N/145W WILL SHIFT EAST AND MAKE LANDFALL SATURDAY AND
THEN APPROACH THE ROCKIES BY 12Z SUNDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND THE EURO
CLOSE OFF AND TRACK THE ASCT UPPER LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS NW WY WITH
THE EURO A BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS. EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS HAD THE
LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL WY BUT NOW MORE
RESEMBLES THE EURO. THE GFS TRACKS THE LOW ACROSS NW WY AROUND 12Z
SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AHEAD OF THIS
APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM.

AS A RESULT OF THIS WX SYSTEM...SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE AN
INTERESTING DAY. A WELL DEVELOPED SFC LOW WILL TRACK FROM EASTERN
IDAHO TO ALONG THE WY/MT BORDER SATURDAY COMPLETE WITH A WELL
DEVELOPED WARM FRONT AND PACIFIC COLD FRONT AND A LIKELY CLASSIC
COMMA CLOUD SIGNATURE. THE H7 LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM IDAHO TO
MT WITH A WEAKER H7 CIRCULATION OVER NW WY SATURDAY. HIGHEST POPS
HAVE BEEN PAINTED ACROSS WESTERN WY BY SATURDAY EVE WITH LIKELY POPS
AND AT LEAST CHC POPS UP NORTH. ISOLD IF ANY IN THE CENTRAL AND
EAST. SOME LEFT FRONT QUAD DYNAMICS MAY COME INTO PLAY SAT NT AS THE
JET SAGS SOUTH. WE SHOULD SEE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN
WY WHERE LIFTED INDICES WILL BE NEGATIVE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE SATURDAY OVER WHAT OCCURS FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH NEARS THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY FROM KRKS TO KCPR. RAIN IN THE WEST WILL TURN TO SNOW
SAT NIGHT AS H7 TEMPS DROP -7C.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

GFS HAS TRENDED FURTHER WEST WITH THE TRACK OF OUR WEEKEND SYSTEM
AS EXPECTED LAST NIGHT. AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...THE MAIN
CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY BE AROUND THE SWRN CORNER OF MT WITH
SNOW FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
OFF TO THE NE...FAVORABLE NW FLOW BEHIND IT SHOULD KEEP SNOW GOING
ACROSS THE WEST...SPREADING INTO THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS. BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY BE OVER NERN MT WITH COLD...CYCLONIC
NW FLOW OVER THE AREA. COLDEST H5 AIR IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO CAN RESULT IN SNOW BANDS OVER CENTRAL
WYO INCLUDING THE WIND RIVER BASIN. GFS IS MOST FAVORABLE WITH
MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS PROVIDING AT LEAST SOME SUPPORT. WILL PUT
IN SOME CHANCE POPS SPREADING SE INTO THE WIND RIVER BASIN AND WRN
NATRONA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW LINGERING INTO MONDAY MRNG. COULD
SEE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE WRN MTNS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN FAVORED NW FLOW. COLDEST H7
AIR COMES IN BEHIND THIS TROUGH ON MONDAY FOR THE COLDEST DAY OF
THE EXTENDED. BOTH THE HIGHS MONDAY AND THE LOWS MONDAY NIGHT.
THEN SLOW MODERATION THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
MILD DAY THURSDAY WITH SOME WIND AND BETTER MIXING. RAISED
TEMPERATURES SOME AT THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THEY
COULD BE IF WE CAN FULLY MIX THE ATMOSPHERE BY THURSDAY WHEN
POTENTIAL WINDS KICK IN.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY AND
VFR CONDITIONS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND THEN
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BRINGING BENIGN
CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
LAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE NEXT POTENTIAL ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION MAY BE FOUND BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES WESTERN WYOMING.


&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...KPL
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON









000
FXUS65 KCYS 300532
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1132 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

A FEW ECHOS NEAR CHADRON MAY PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
RADAR SHOWING A WEAK SUBTLE BOUNDARY BACKING IN COOLER AIR BUT
MOST OF THE COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS.
NO WEATHER CONCERNS TONIGHT AS GUSTY WINDS IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT WITH A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. WITH LIMITED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE...THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE
5-10 DEGREES COOLER. IT WILL BE BREEZY FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH
GUSTS OF 15-25 MPH. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL USHER IN
COOLER AIR FOR THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY WITH A EAST-WEST TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT OF LOWER 50S- LOWER 60S...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHEAST
WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WILL BE SATURDAY AS THE CWA WILL BE
UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROF. NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO REACH THE FAR WESTERN PART OF
THE CWA LATE IN THE DAY AS SOME ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE TROF. BULK OF ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROF WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST AND OVER THE NRN ROCKYS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
RESULTING IN A DRIER DOWNSLOPE PATTERN ACROSS THE CWA BEHIND A
PACIFIC FRONT THAT WILL PASS ACROSS SAT NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR
PCPN WILL BE OVER THE MTNS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOME JET DYNAMICS
MAY COME INTO PLAY OVER THE PLAINS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
REMAINING ENERGY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKYS AND
OVERRIDES THE COOL AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE. THIS MAY BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO THE PLAINS AT THAT TIME. MAIN TROF AXIS AXIS WILL PASS
ACROSS LATE MONDAY LEAVING MILD AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE CWA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING)

GUSTY WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
NORTH THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG LATER THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS OVER FIRE ZONES 301 AND 310
WILL CREATE NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS. A REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AIR EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE FRIDAY WILL RAISE HUMIDITY VALUES TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT...
WHILE AREAS TO THE WEST WILL BE DRIER WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT. MILD AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COLDER TEMPERATURES
AND CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...RAE
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...MJ




000
FXUS63 KUNR 300524
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1124 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

AN UPPER WAVE IS PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN MT/WY...CREATING SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WY AND
WESTERN SD. AXIS OF SURFACE TROUGH SITS OVER WESTERN SD. A MINI
BOUNDARY MOVED THROUGH THE RAPID CITY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
CREATED SOME GUSTY WINDS FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...WHICH HAVE SINCE
DECREASED. TEMPS ARE WARMING INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

WAVE SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT AND SHOWERS WILL END EARLY. BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN SLIDING THROUGH THE CWA...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S.

FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS THE
SD PLAINS ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY...AS GUIDANCE HAS
A 10-15 DEGREE SPREAD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SD...WHERE THE FRONT WILL
BE MOST EFFECTIVE. MODELS HAVE COLD AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT INTO
THE AREA ON THURSDAY...SO TRENDED COOLER WITH THE HIGHS ACROSS
NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL SD. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN
THIS AREA TO THE MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHWEST SD. ALSO COOLED LOWS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SKIES
WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY...RESULTING
IN CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS IN BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND LEE TROF ADVANCING FROM EAST OF THE ROCKIES...CREATING STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF PUSHING INTO THE
PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE BEST ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD PASS NORTH OF OUR CWA...SO ONLY EXPECTING
SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AT THIS TIME. COOLER AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ONCE THE TROF PASSES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE ONTO THE SD PLAINS LATER TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. AN AREA OF IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST SD
AND PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT MIDDAY THURSDAY. THE ST MAY APPROACH THE
KRAP TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...HELGESON







000
FXUS65 KRIW 300440
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1040 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME MOUNTAIN ENHANCED CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA AS
WELL.

THE WAVE GENERATING SOME PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY BE THROUGH
THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. A BUILDING RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED
BEHIND THE DEPARTURE OF THE WAVE. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPERATURES... LIGHT WIND...AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

RIDGING WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND BRING A
MAINLY CLEAR AND SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. THIS AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE APPROACH OF A SYSTEM FROM THE
WEST IT WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS. NOW OF
COURSE...THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHAT WILL THE WEATHER BE
LIKE FOR ALL OF THE LITTLE GHOSTS...GOBLINS AND GHOULS WHAT WILL BE
GOING OUT ON THE ANNUAL SEARCH FOR CANDY ON FRIDAY EVENING. AND THE
ANSWER IS...IT LOOKS FAIRLY NICE. EXPECT DRY WEATHER FOR ALL
LOCATIONS WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS IN THE WEST AND A BIT OF A BREEZE
IN THE WIND CORRIDOR. BY THE TIME THE BIG KIDS GO OUT TO PARTY IN
THE EVENING IT WILL BE CHILLY...BUT NOTHING UNEXPECTED FOR THE LAST
DAY OF OCTOBER IN WYOMING.

CHANGES WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY AS THE WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A VAST
MAJORITY OF PLACES DRY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD INTO AREAS WEST OF THE DIVIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...ALL THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SO
ANY RAIN OR SNOW SHOULD BE MINOR. MEANWHILE...EAST OF THE DIVIDE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND WARM WEATHER. HOWEVER...THE COMPLICATION WILL
BE A GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WITH SOME GUSTS PAST 40 MPH AT TIMES.
SOME OF THE WARMER BASIN LOCATIONS COULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
INTO THE 70S. BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND GFS ARE ALSO FAIRLY CONSISTENT
IN KEEPING ALMOST ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE DIVIDE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN EAST
OF THE DIVIDE FOR NOW BUT FUTURE SHIFTS MAY WANT TO CONSIDER TAKING
IT OUT IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. THERE COULD BE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST...BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO
REMAIN SUB-ADVISORY. AS FOR SUNDAY...BOTH MODELS TAKE MOST OF THE
ENERGY TO THE NORTH AS THE SYSTEM BUMPS INTO THE RIDGE TO THE EAST.
THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH HIGHER POPS LOOKED REASONABLE AS A RESULT.
THE BIG CHANGE STILL LOOKS TO BE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS 10 TO 20
DEGREES COLDER THAN ON SATURDAY.

BY MONDAY...THIS ENERGY WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS
SHOW ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH THAT COULD
BRING A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH. THE MODELS ARE
DISAGREEING ON TIMING...SO FAR NOW WE MADE FEW CHANGES. THERE ARE
ALSO DIFFERENCES FROM TUESDAY AND ONWARD...THE GFS HAS A FLATTER
FLOW WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WYOMING FOR TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE EUROPEAN HAS A STRONGER RIDGE AND KEEPS THE AREA
WARMER AND DRIER. ONLY TIME WILL TELL WHAT WILL HAPPEN AT THAT POINT.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z DISCUSSION/

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY AND
VFR CONDITIONS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND THEN
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SOME ISOLATED...GENERALLY
MOUNTAIN RELATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES ITS TRAVEL THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT
BRINGING BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE NEXT POTENTIAL
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION MAY BE FOUND BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES WESTERN WYOMING.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...KPL
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM





000
FXUS65 KCYS 300332
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
932 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

A FEW ECHOS NEAR CHADRON MAY PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
RADAR SHOWING A WEAK SUBTLE BOUNDARY BACKING IN COOLER AIR BUT
MOST OF THE COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS.
NO WEATHER CONCERNS TONIGHT AS GUSTY WINDS IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT WITH A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. WITH LIMITED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE...THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE
5-10 DEGREES COOLER. IT WILL BE BREEZY FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH
GUSTS OF 15-25 MPH. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL USHER IN
COOLER AIR FOR THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY WITH A EAST-WEST TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT OF LOWER 50S- LOWER 60S...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHEAST
WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WILL BE SATURDAY AS THE CWA WILL BE
UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROF. NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO REACH THE FAR WESTERN PART OF
THE CWA LATE IN THE DAY AS SOME ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE TROF. BULK OF ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROF WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST AND OVER THE NRN ROCKYS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
RESULTING IN A DRIER DOWNSLOPE PATTERN ACROSS THE CWA BEHIND A
PACIFIC FRONT THAT WILL PASS ACROSS SAT NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR
PCPN WILL BE OVER THE MTNS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOME JET DYNAMICS
MAY COME INTO PLAY OVER THE PLAINS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
REMAINING ENERGY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKYS AND
OVERRIDES THE COOL AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE. THIS MAY BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO THE PLAINS AT THAT TIME. MAIN TROF AXIS AXIS WILL PASS
ACROSS LATE MONDAY LEAVING MILD AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE CWA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 531 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

GUSTY WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE EARLY THIS EVENING. IN THE FAVORED WINDY AREAS
SUCH AS NEAR THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND NORTHERN SNOWY RANGE
FOOTHILLS...GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS OVER FIRE ZONES 301 AND 310
WILL CREATE NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS. A REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AIR EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE FRIDAY WILL RAISE HUMIDITY VALUES TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT...
WHILE AREAS TO THE WEST WILL BE DRIER WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT. MILD AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COLDER TEMPERATURES
AND CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...RAE
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...MJ




000
FXUS65 KCYS 292357
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
557 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT WITH A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. WITH LIMITED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE...THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE
5-10 DEGREES COOLER. IT WILL BE BREEZY FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH
GUSTS OF 15-25 MPH. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL USHER IN
COOLER AIR FOR THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY WITH A EAST-WEST TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT OF LOWER 50S- LOWER 60S...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHEAST
WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WILL BE SATURDAY AS THE CWA WILL BE
UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROF. NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO REACH THE FAR WESTERN PART OF
THE CWA LATE IN THE DAY AS SOME ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE TROF. BULK OF ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROF WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST AND OVER THE NRN ROCKYS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
RESULTING IN A DRIER DOWNSLOPE PATTERN ACROSS THE CWA BEHIND A
PACIFIC FRONT THAT WILL PASS ACROSS SAT NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR
PCPN WILL BE OVER THE MTNS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOME JET DYNAMICS
MAY COME INTO PLAY OVER THE PLAINS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
REMAINING ENERGY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKYS AND
OVERRIDES THE COOL AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE. THIS MAY BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO THE PLAINS AT THAT TIME. MAIN TROF AXIS AXIS WILL PASS
ACROSS LATE MONDAY LEAVING MILD AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE CWA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 531 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

GUSTY WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE EARLY THIS EVENING. IN THE FAVORED WINDY AREAS
SUCH AS NEAR THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND NORTHERN SNOWY RANGE
FOOTHILLS...GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS OVER FIRE ZONES 301 AND 310
WILL CREATE NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS. A REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AIR EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE FRIDAY WILL RAISE HUMIDITY VALUES TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT...
WHILE AREAS TO THE WEST WILL BE DRIER WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT. MILD AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COLDER TEMPERATURES
AND CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...RAE
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...MJ




000
FXUS63 KUNR 292352
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
552 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

AN UPPER WAVE IS PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN MT/WY...CREATING SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WY AND
WESTERN SD. AXIS OF SURFACE TROUGH SITS OVER WESTERN SD. A MINI
BOUNDARY MOVED THROUGH THE RAPID CITY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
CREATED SOME GUSTY WINDS FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...WHICH HAVE SINCE
DECREASED. TEMPS ARE WARMING INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

WAVE SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT AND SHOWERS WILL END EARLY. BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN SLIDING THROUGH THE CWA...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S.

FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS THE
SD PLAINS ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY...AS GUIDANCE HAS
A 10-15 DEGREE SPREAD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SD...WHERE THE FRONT WILL
BE MOST EFFECTIVE. MODELS HAVE COLD AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT INTO
THE AREA ON THURSDAY...SO TRENDED COOLER WITH THE HIGHS ACROSS
NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL SD. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN
THIS AREA TO THE MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHWEST SD. ALSO COOLED LOWS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SKIES
WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY...RESULTING
IN CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS IN BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND LEE TROF ADVANCING FROM EAST OF THE ROCKIES...CREATING STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF PUSHING INTO THE
PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE BEST ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD PASS NORTH OF OUR CWA...SO ONLY EXPECTING
SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AT THIS TIME. COOLER AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ONCE THE TROF PASSES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 551 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE ONTO THE SD PLAINS LATER TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
ACROSS NORTHWEST SD. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITINOS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...HELGESON





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