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000
FXUS65 KRIW 100538
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1037 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WIND WILL BE THE MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM AS A LEE TROUGH DIGS
AT THE SURFACE AND A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS ALONG THE
ABSAROKAS. THERE IS A WEAK MOUNTAIN WAVE SIGNATURE THAT DEVELOPS
ALONG THE CODY FOOTHILLS. FLOW ACROSS THE BARRIER IS MARGINAL AND
THE DIRECTION OF THE FLOW IS HOLDING TO MUCH OF A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT FOR A CLASSIC CLARK BREAKING MOUNTAIN WAVE...BUT THERE
WILL BE SOME GUSTY CROSS WINDS ALONG HIGHWAY 120 AND FOR AREAS
WEST OF CODY AND AROUND CLARK TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THERE COULD BE SOME 30 TO 40 MPH WINDS COMING OUT OF THE CANYONS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE IN FAVORED AREAS.
OTHERWISE...FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE RED DESERT TO CASPER AS
THE LEE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SET UP WITH 20 TO 35 MPH WINDS COMMON
IN THAT AREA.

THE GOOD NEWS WITH ALL OF THE WIND IS THAT THERE WILL BE WARM AIR
ALOFT MIXING DOWN. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME RECORD HIGHS IN
FOOTHILL LOCATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THE WESTERN VALLEYS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER RATHER STEEP INVERSIONS WITH MORNING FOG
OBSCURING THE SKIES AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR MIXING IN THE BASINS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...BUT EVEN IF WE DO
NOT FULLY MIX THERE WILL STILL BE A NICE SUNNY AND MILD DAY FOR
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

MAINLY QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE INTO MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE USUAL LOCATIONS LIKE NEAR CLARK AND ALSO ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN WIND CORRIDOR HOWEVER HIGH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. A WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE WILL THEN
SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS
SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE BUT EVEN THESE LOOK TO BE
FAIRLY INCONSEQUENTIAL. THE FRONT COULD MIX OUT THE BASINS A BIT
MORE FOR THURSDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS SLOW
CLIMB ACROSS THE BASINS AS THE ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES MELT THE
SNOW PACK AND THE ALBEDO DECREASES THROUGH FRIDAY. ALL IN ALL THE
RESULTS OF RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA.

BY SATURDAY ANOTHER WAVE WILL APPROACH THE WEST. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS WITH THE EUROPEAN SHOWING A BOUNDARY
SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS FURTHER
NORTH AND KEEPS PRECIPITATION ACROSS MONTANA. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY
WE MADE FEW CHANGES. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY MAY BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BUT
AGAIN THE BEST MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
ALMOST ALL THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE SHOULD REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE MODELS REALLY DIVERGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS REBUILDS THE
RIDGE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE COWBOY
STATE. MEANWHILE...THE EUROPEAN HAS A FLATTER RIDGE WITH SOME
DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE TOP OF IT. BUT AGAIN...MOST OF THE
ENERGY AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO STAY ACROSS MONTANA AND THE MODEL IS
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE 00Z RUN. FOR NOW...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO
CONTINUITY UNTIL THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN IMPACT THE FAR WESTERN VALLEYS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS ONCE THEY FORM WILL PROBABLY
NOT SCATTER OUT/LIFT UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH ONLY INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS WEDNESDAY. THE BASINS AND VALLEYS WILL SEE FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND WIND CORRIDOR
FROM KRKS TO KCPR WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY AT TIMES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

STEEP TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS
WILL LEAD TO VERY POOR SMOKE DISPERSION. WINDS...HOWEVER...WILL
BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE ACROSS THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREA OF CENTRAL
WYOMING. WEDNESDAY...AREAS IN AND ADJACENT TO THE ABSAROKA
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS OVER 50 MPH NEAR THE CANYONS. IT
WILL BE FAIRLY WINDY FROM THE RED DESERT TO CASPER WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...WHICH WILL IMPROVE SMOKE DISPERSION IN THESE AREAS. NO
MAJOR SNOW STORMS OR WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND EVENTS ARE ON THE
HORIZON...

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN




000
FXUS65 KRIW 100538
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1037 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WIND WILL BE THE MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM AS A LEE TROUGH DIGS
AT THE SURFACE AND A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS ALONG THE
ABSAROKAS. THERE IS A WEAK MOUNTAIN WAVE SIGNATURE THAT DEVELOPS
ALONG THE CODY FOOTHILLS. FLOW ACROSS THE BARRIER IS MARGINAL AND
THE DIRECTION OF THE FLOW IS HOLDING TO MUCH OF A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT FOR A CLASSIC CLARK BREAKING MOUNTAIN WAVE...BUT THERE
WILL BE SOME GUSTY CROSS WINDS ALONG HIGHWAY 120 AND FOR AREAS
WEST OF CODY AND AROUND CLARK TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THERE COULD BE SOME 30 TO 40 MPH WINDS COMING OUT OF THE CANYONS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE IN FAVORED AREAS.
OTHERWISE...FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE RED DESERT TO CASPER AS
THE LEE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SET UP WITH 20 TO 35 MPH WINDS COMMON
IN THAT AREA.

THE GOOD NEWS WITH ALL OF THE WIND IS THAT THERE WILL BE WARM AIR
ALOFT MIXING DOWN. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME RECORD HIGHS IN
FOOTHILL LOCATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THE WESTERN VALLEYS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER RATHER STEEP INVERSIONS WITH MORNING FOG
OBSCURING THE SKIES AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR MIXING IN THE BASINS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...BUT EVEN IF WE DO
NOT FULLY MIX THERE WILL STILL BE A NICE SUNNY AND MILD DAY FOR
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

MAINLY QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE INTO MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE USUAL LOCATIONS LIKE NEAR CLARK AND ALSO ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN WIND CORRIDOR HOWEVER HIGH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. A WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE WILL THEN
SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS
SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE BUT EVEN THESE LOOK TO BE
FAIRLY INCONSEQUENTIAL. THE FRONT COULD MIX OUT THE BASINS A BIT
MORE FOR THURSDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS SLOW
CLIMB ACROSS THE BASINS AS THE ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES MELT THE
SNOW PACK AND THE ALBEDO DECREASES THROUGH FRIDAY. ALL IN ALL THE
RESULTS OF RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA.

BY SATURDAY ANOTHER WAVE WILL APPROACH THE WEST. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS WITH THE EUROPEAN SHOWING A BOUNDARY
SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS FURTHER
NORTH AND KEEPS PRECIPITATION ACROSS MONTANA. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY
WE MADE FEW CHANGES. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY MAY BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BUT
AGAIN THE BEST MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
ALMOST ALL THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE SHOULD REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE MODELS REALLY DIVERGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS REBUILDS THE
RIDGE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE COWBOY
STATE. MEANWHILE...THE EUROPEAN HAS A FLATTER RIDGE WITH SOME
DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE TOP OF IT. BUT AGAIN...MOST OF THE
ENERGY AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO STAY ACROSS MONTANA AND THE MODEL IS
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE 00Z RUN. FOR NOW...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO
CONTINUITY UNTIL THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN IMPACT THE FAR WESTERN VALLEYS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS ONCE THEY FORM WILL PROBABLY
NOT SCATTER OUT/LIFT UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH ONLY INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS WEDNESDAY. THE BASINS AND VALLEYS WILL SEE FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND WIND CORRIDOR
FROM KRKS TO KCPR WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY AT TIMES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

STEEP TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS
WILL LEAD TO VERY POOR SMOKE DISPERSION. WINDS...HOWEVER...WILL
BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE ACROSS THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREA OF CENTRAL
WYOMING. WEDNESDAY...AREAS IN AND ADJACENT TO THE ABSAROKA
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS OVER 50 MPH NEAR THE CANYONS. IT
WILL BE FAIRLY WINDY FROM THE RED DESERT TO CASPER WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...WHICH WILL IMPROVE SMOKE DISPERSION IN THESE AREAS. NO
MAJOR SNOW STORMS OR WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND EVENTS ARE ON THE
HORIZON...

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN



000
FXUS65 KRIW 100538
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1037 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WIND WILL BE THE MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM AS A LEE TROUGH DIGS
AT THE SURFACE AND A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS ALONG THE
ABSAROKAS. THERE IS A WEAK MOUNTAIN WAVE SIGNATURE THAT DEVELOPS
ALONG THE CODY FOOTHILLS. FLOW ACROSS THE BARRIER IS MARGINAL AND
THE DIRECTION OF THE FLOW IS HOLDING TO MUCH OF A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT FOR A CLASSIC CLARK BREAKING MOUNTAIN WAVE...BUT THERE
WILL BE SOME GUSTY CROSS WINDS ALONG HIGHWAY 120 AND FOR AREAS
WEST OF CODY AND AROUND CLARK TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THERE COULD BE SOME 30 TO 40 MPH WINDS COMING OUT OF THE CANYONS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE IN FAVORED AREAS.
OTHERWISE...FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE RED DESERT TO CASPER AS
THE LEE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SET UP WITH 20 TO 35 MPH WINDS COMMON
IN THAT AREA.

THE GOOD NEWS WITH ALL OF THE WIND IS THAT THERE WILL BE WARM AIR
ALOFT MIXING DOWN. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME RECORD HIGHS IN
FOOTHILL LOCATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THE WESTERN VALLEYS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER RATHER STEEP INVERSIONS WITH MORNING FOG
OBSCURING THE SKIES AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR MIXING IN THE BASINS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...BUT EVEN IF WE DO
NOT FULLY MIX THERE WILL STILL BE A NICE SUNNY AND MILD DAY FOR
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

MAINLY QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE INTO MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE USUAL LOCATIONS LIKE NEAR CLARK AND ALSO ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN WIND CORRIDOR HOWEVER HIGH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. A WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE WILL THEN
SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS
SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE BUT EVEN THESE LOOK TO BE
FAIRLY INCONSEQUENTIAL. THE FRONT COULD MIX OUT THE BASINS A BIT
MORE FOR THURSDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS SLOW
CLIMB ACROSS THE BASINS AS THE ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES MELT THE
SNOW PACK AND THE ALBEDO DECREASES THROUGH FRIDAY. ALL IN ALL THE
RESULTS OF RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA.

BY SATURDAY ANOTHER WAVE WILL APPROACH THE WEST. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS WITH THE EUROPEAN SHOWING A BOUNDARY
SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS FURTHER
NORTH AND KEEPS PRECIPITATION ACROSS MONTANA. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY
WE MADE FEW CHANGES. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY MAY BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BUT
AGAIN THE BEST MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
ALMOST ALL THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE SHOULD REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE MODELS REALLY DIVERGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS REBUILDS THE
RIDGE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE COWBOY
STATE. MEANWHILE...THE EUROPEAN HAS A FLATTER RIDGE WITH SOME
DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE TOP OF IT. BUT AGAIN...MOST OF THE
ENERGY AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO STAY ACROSS MONTANA AND THE MODEL IS
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE 00Z RUN. FOR NOW...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO
CONTINUITY UNTIL THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN IMPACT THE FAR WESTERN VALLEYS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS ONCE THEY FORM WILL PROBABLY
NOT SCATTER OUT/LIFT UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH ONLY INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS WEDNESDAY. THE BASINS AND VALLEYS WILL SEE FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND WIND CORRIDOR
FROM KRKS TO KCPR WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY AT TIMES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

STEEP TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS
WILL LEAD TO VERY POOR SMOKE DISPERSION. WINDS...HOWEVER...WILL
BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE ACROSS THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREA OF CENTRAL
WYOMING. WEDNESDAY...AREAS IN AND ADJACENT TO THE ABSAROKA
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS OVER 50 MPH NEAR THE CANYONS. IT
WILL BE FAIRLY WINDY FROM THE RED DESERT TO CASPER WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...WHICH WILL IMPROVE SMOKE DISPERSION IN THESE AREAS. NO
MAJOR SNOW STORMS OR WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND EVENTS ARE ON THE
HORIZON...

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN



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000
FXUS63 KUNR 100522
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1022 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 135 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

1930Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A N/S ORIENTED BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S
AND 50S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND
30S ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
RADAR REVEALS SOME LIGHT ECHOES OVER THE EASTERN-MOST COUNTIES IN
THE CWA...THOUGH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS NOT BEEN
REACHING THE GROUND WITH ONLY A FEW STATIONS RECORDING TRACE
AMOUNTS.

TONIGHT...BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE
CWA. COULD HAVE A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE 06Z. OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA AND WE WILL SEE GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY COULD BE A BIT TRICKY...AS WARMEST
AIR ALOFT IS OVER THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...AND MODELS INDICATE
DECENT CAA AT 850MB AND 700MB DURING THE DAY. CURRENT THINKING IS
AREAS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL
PROBABLY MIX OUT THE INVERSION IN THE MORNING AND EASILY REACH INTO
THE 50S FOR HIGHS...WHILE THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS MAY TAKE A BIT
LONGER TO MIX DOWN AND WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS PROG A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH SURFACE WINDS
SWITCHING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE EAST. SOME MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A STRATUS DECK JUST OFF THE SURFACE A COUPLE
OF THOUSAND FEET IN DEPTH...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THERE MAY BE SOME
FOG IN AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL HOLD
OFF ON PUTTING IT IN THE GRIDS GIVEN SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON
MOISTURE IN LOW LEVELS...BUT WILL MONITOR FOR FUTURE FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 135 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

AMPLIFIED ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL PERSIST IN THE PERIOD. WESTERN NOAM
POSITIVE MID LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALY WILL REMAIN CENTERED JUST WEST
OF THE REGION...WITH ACTIVE NW FLOW TO THE EAST. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A LL BAROCLINIC ZONE WAVERING ACROSS THE REGION WITH MILD CONDS
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA....AND MUCH COOLER CONDS OVER
EASTERN AREAS. MID/LEVEL IMPULSES PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE FA
WILL FLUCTUATE THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME BOUTS OF
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP EASTERN HALF. A STRONGER WAVE WILL ADVECT
THROUGH THE RIDGE SAT-SUN...SUPPORTING BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN/SNOW OVER AREA...ESP NE WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS.
HOWEVER...MILD NW FLOW LOOKS TO PERSIST BEHIND THIS WAVE AS ARCTIC
AIR WILL REMAIN BOTTLED TO THE NORTH PER FLOW BLOCKING OVER
CENTRAL CANADA WHILE PAC FLOW SPREADS FURTHER EAST INTO THE
MIDWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1021 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL
MVFR CIGS LATE IN THE PERIOD OF PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KCYS 100451
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
951 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

IT IS ANOTHER BREEZY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH GUSTS
TO 30-40 MPH.  WITH THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER OVER
NEVADA...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE CWA.  THIS
PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THURS.  THE MODELS DO
SHOW PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 06-12Z
TONIGHT.  THE LLVL GRADIENT ALSO INCREASES TO 50-60 METERS...THUS
WINDS WILL LIKELY PICK UP IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WITH MARGINAL GRADIENTS AND A LACK OF A STABLE LAYER ALOFT...DO
NOT BELIEVE THAT HIGH WINDS WILL BE COMMON. HOWEVER DID INCLUDE
GUSTS TO 55 MPH IN THE HWO FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS. THE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO DECREASE BY MIDDAY WED AND WINDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
COME DOWN SOME AT THAT POINT. WINDS SHOULD BE WEAKER ON THURS AS
THE STRONGEST 700 MB FLOW SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA/NEBRASKA. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE MILD FOR FEB WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW-TO-MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON FRIDAY AS A FAST-
MOVING SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A FAIRLY MILD
AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND H7 TEMPS IN
THE 0 TO +3 DEG C RANGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE
SHOWING THIS SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE WY/MT BORDER SOMETIME LATE SAT
NIGHT OR SUN MORNING. THE GFS SHOWS H75 FLOW INCREASING TO 45 TO 55
KTS OVER THE WIND CORRIDORS AS LOW-LEVEL GRADIENTS STRENGTHEN. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A MARGINAL HIGH WIND EPISODE FOR ARL/BRX AND POSSIBLY
THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE BEST FORCING GOING TO THE NORTH...BUT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS POSSIBLE OVER CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES THIS WEEKEND. UPPER-LVL
RIDGING RETURNS FOR NEXT WEEK WITH VERY WARM/DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
LIKELY. NO BIG WEATHER IMPACTS IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 949 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING FOR
OUR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AIRPORTS THAT WILL SPREAD OUT INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM DUE TO THE
CURRENT SNOWPACK AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEK. BREEZY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 50S BY MIDWEEK ACROSS THE
PLAINS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...ZF




000
FXUS63 KUNR 092339
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
439 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 135 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

1930Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A N/S ORIENTED BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S
AND 50S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND
30S ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
RADAR REVEALS SOME LIGHT ECHOES OVER THE EASTERN-MOST COUNTIES IN
THE CWA...THOUGH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS NOT BEEN
REACHING THE GROUND WITH ONLY A FEW STATIONS RECORDING TRACE
AMOUNTS.

TONIGHT...BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE
CWA. COULD HAVE A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE 06Z. OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA AND WE WILL SEE GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY COULD BE A BIT TRICKY...AS WARMEST
AIR ALOFT IS OVER THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...AND MODELS INDICATE
DECENT CAA AT 850MB AND 700MB DURING THE DAY. CURRENT THINKING IS
AREAS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL
PROBABLY MIX OUT THE INVERSION IN THE MORNING AND EASILY REACH INTO
THE 50S FOR HIGHS...WHILE THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS MAY TAKE A BIT
LONGER TO MIX DOWN AND WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS PROG A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH SURFACE WINDS
SWITCHING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE EAST. SOME MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A STRATUS DECK JUST OFF THE SURFACE A COUPLE
OF THOUSAND FEET IN DEPTH...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THERE MAY BE SOME
FOG IN AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL HOLD
OFF ON PUTTING IT IN THE GRIDS GIVEN SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON
MOISTURE IN LOW LEVELS...BUT WILL MONITOR FOR FUTURE FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 135 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

AMPLIFIED ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL PERSIST IN THE PERIOD. WESTERN NOAM
POSITIVE MID LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALY WILL REMAIN CENTERED JUST WEST
OF THE REGION...WITH ACTIVE NW FLOW TO THE EAST. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A LL BAROCLINIC ZONE WAVERING ACROSS THE REGION WITH MILD CONDS
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA....AND MUCH COOLER CONDS OVER
EASTERN AREAS. MID/LEVEL IMPULSES PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE FA
WILL FLUCTUATE THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME BOUTS OF
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP EASTERN HALF. A STRONGER WAVE WILL ADVECT
THROUGH THE RIDGE SAT-SUN...SUPPORTING BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN/SNOW OVER AREA...ESP NE WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS.
HOWEVER...MILD NW FLOW LOOKS TO PERSIST BEHIND THIS WAVE AS ARCTIC
AIR WILL REMAIN BOTTLED TO THE NORTH PER FLOW BLOCKING OVER
CENTRAL CANADA WHILE PAC FLOW SPREADS FURTHER EAST INTO THE
MIDWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 437 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

LOCAL MVFR CIGS MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL SD DUE TO
ST/FZDZ/-SHRASN. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS65 KCYS 092322
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
422 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

IT IS ANOTHER BREEZY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH GUSTS
TO 30-40 MPH.  WITH THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER OVER
NEVADA...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE CWA.  THIS
PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THURS.  THE MODELS DO
SHOW PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 06-12Z
TONIGHT.  THE LLVL GRADIENT ALSO INCREASES TO 50-60 METERS...THUS
WINDS WILL LIKELY PICK UP IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WITH MARGINAL GRADIENTS AND A LACK OF A STABLE LAYER ALOFT...DO
NOT BELIEVE THAT HIGH WINDS WILL BE COMMON. HOWEVER DID INCLUDE
GUSTS TO 55 MPH IN THE HWO FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS. THE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO DECREASE BY MIDDAY WED AND WINDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
COME DOWN SOME AT THAT POINT. WINDS SHOULD BE WEAKER ON THURS AS
THE STRONGEST 700 MB FLOW SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA/NEBRASKA. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE MILD FOR FEB WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW-TO-MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON FRIDAY AS A FAST-
MOVING SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A FAIRLY MILD
AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND H7 TEMPS IN
THE 0 TO +3 DEG C RANGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE
SHOWING THIS SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE WY/MT BORDER SOMETIME LATE SAT
NIGHT OR SUN MORNING. THE GFS SHOWS H75 FLOW INCREASING TO 45 TO 55
KTS OVER THE WIND CORRIDORS AS LOW-LEVEL GRADIENTS STRENGTHEN. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A MARGINAL HIGH WIND EPISODE FOR ARL/BRX AND POSSIBLY
THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE BEST FORCING GOING TO THE NORTH...BUT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS POSSIBLE OVER CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES THIS WEEKEND. UPPER-LVL
RIDGING RETURNS FOR NEXT WEEK WITH VERY WARM/DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
LIKELY. NO BIG WEATHER IMPACTS IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 421 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH GUSTY WINDS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM DUE TO THE
CURRENT SNOWPACK AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEK. BREEZY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 50S BY MIDWEEK ACROSS THE
PLAINS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...ZF




000
FXUS65 KCYS 092322
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
422 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

IT IS ANOTHER BREEZY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH GUSTS
TO 30-40 MPH.  WITH THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER OVER
NEVADA...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE CWA.  THIS
PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THURS.  THE MODELS DO
SHOW PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 06-12Z
TONIGHT.  THE LLVL GRADIENT ALSO INCREASES TO 50-60 METERS...THUS
WINDS WILL LIKELY PICK UP IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WITH MARGINAL GRADIENTS AND A LACK OF A STABLE LAYER ALOFT...DO
NOT BELIEVE THAT HIGH WINDS WILL BE COMMON. HOWEVER DID INCLUDE
GUSTS TO 55 MPH IN THE HWO FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS. THE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO DECREASE BY MIDDAY WED AND WINDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
COME DOWN SOME AT THAT POINT. WINDS SHOULD BE WEAKER ON THURS AS
THE STRONGEST 700 MB FLOW SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA/NEBRASKA. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE MILD FOR FEB WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW-TO-MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON FRIDAY AS A FAST-
MOVING SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A FAIRLY MILD
AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND H7 TEMPS IN
THE 0 TO +3 DEG C RANGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE
SHOWING THIS SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE WY/MT BORDER SOMETIME LATE SAT
NIGHT OR SUN MORNING. THE GFS SHOWS H75 FLOW INCREASING TO 45 TO 55
KTS OVER THE WIND CORRIDORS AS LOW-LEVEL GRADIENTS STRENGTHEN. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A MARGINAL HIGH WIND EPISODE FOR ARL/BRX AND POSSIBLY
THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE BEST FORCING GOING TO THE NORTH...BUT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS POSSIBLE OVER CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES THIS WEEKEND. UPPER-LVL
RIDGING RETURNS FOR NEXT WEEK WITH VERY WARM/DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
LIKELY. NO BIG WEATHER IMPACTS IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 421 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH GUSTY WINDS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM DUE TO THE
CURRENT SNOWPACK AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEK. BREEZY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 50S BY MIDWEEK ACROSS THE
PLAINS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...ZF




000
FXUS65 KCYS 092245
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
345 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

IT IS ANOTHER BREEZY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH GUSTS
TO 30-40 MPH.  WITH THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER OVER
NEVADA...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE CWA.  THIS
PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THURS.  THE MODELS DO
SHOW PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 06-12Z
TONIGHT.  THE LLVL GRADIENT ALSO INCREASES TO 50-60 METERS...THUS
WINDS WILL LIKELY PICK UP IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WITH MARGINAL GRADIENTS AND A LACK OF A STABLE LAYER ALOFT...DO
NOT BELIEVE THAT HIGH WINDS WILL BE COMMON. HOWEVER DID INCLUDE
GUSTS TO 55 MPH IN THE HWO FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS. THE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO DECREASE BY MIDDAY WED AND WINDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
COME DOWN SOME AT THAT POINT. WINDS SHOULD BE WEAKER ON THURS AS
THE STRONGEST 700 MB FLOW SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA/NEBRASKA. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE MILD FOR FEB WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW-TO-MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON FRIDAY AS A FAST-
MOVING SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A FAIRLY MILD
AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND H7 TEMPS IN
THE 0 TO +3 DEG C RANGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE
SHOWING THIS SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE WY/MT BORDER SOMETIME LATE SAT
NIGHT OR SUN MORNING. THE GFS SHOWS H75 FLOW INCREASING TO 45 TO 55
KTS OVER THE WIND CORRIDORS AS LOW-LEVEL GRADIENTS STRENGTHEN. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A MARGINAL HIGH WIND EPISODE FOR ARL/BRX AND POSSIBLY
THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE BEST FORCING GOING TO THE NORTH...BUT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS POSSIBLE OVER CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES THIS WEEKEND. UPPER-LVL
RIDGING RETURNS FOR NEXT WEEK WITH VERY WARM/DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
LIKELY. NO BIG WEATHER IMPACTS IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. MID-LEVEL CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TODAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING TERMINALS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM DUE TO THE
CURRENT SNOWPACK AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEK. BREEZY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 50S BY MIDWEEK ACROSS THE
PLAINS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...ZF




000
FXUS65 KCYS 092245
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
345 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

IT IS ANOTHER BREEZY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH GUSTS
TO 30-40 MPH.  WITH THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER OVER
NEVADA...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE CWA.  THIS
PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THURS.  THE MODELS DO
SHOW PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 06-12Z
TONIGHT.  THE LLVL GRADIENT ALSO INCREASES TO 50-60 METERS...THUS
WINDS WILL LIKELY PICK UP IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WITH MARGINAL GRADIENTS AND A LACK OF A STABLE LAYER ALOFT...DO
NOT BELIEVE THAT HIGH WINDS WILL BE COMMON. HOWEVER DID INCLUDE
GUSTS TO 55 MPH IN THE HWO FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS. THE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO DECREASE BY MIDDAY WED AND WINDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
COME DOWN SOME AT THAT POINT. WINDS SHOULD BE WEAKER ON THURS AS
THE STRONGEST 700 MB FLOW SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA/NEBRASKA. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE MILD FOR FEB WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW-TO-MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON FRIDAY AS A FAST-
MOVING SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A FAIRLY MILD
AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND H7 TEMPS IN
THE 0 TO +3 DEG C RANGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE
SHOWING THIS SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE WY/MT BORDER SOMETIME LATE SAT
NIGHT OR SUN MORNING. THE GFS SHOWS H75 FLOW INCREASING TO 45 TO 55
KTS OVER THE WIND CORRIDORS AS LOW-LEVEL GRADIENTS STRENGTHEN. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A MARGINAL HIGH WIND EPISODE FOR ARL/BRX AND POSSIBLY
THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE BEST FORCING GOING TO THE NORTH...BUT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS POSSIBLE OVER CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES THIS WEEKEND. UPPER-LVL
RIDGING RETURNS FOR NEXT WEEK WITH VERY WARM/DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
LIKELY. NO BIG WEATHER IMPACTS IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. MID-LEVEL CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TODAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING TERMINALS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM DUE TO THE
CURRENT SNOWPACK AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEK. BREEZY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 50S BY MIDWEEK ACROSS THE
PLAINS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...ZF




000
FXUS65 KCYS 092245
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
345 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

IT IS ANOTHER BREEZY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH GUSTS
TO 30-40 MPH.  WITH THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER OVER
NEVADA...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE CWA.  THIS
PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THURS.  THE MODELS DO
SHOW PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 06-12Z
TONIGHT.  THE LLVL GRADIENT ALSO INCREASES TO 50-60 METERS...THUS
WINDS WILL LIKELY PICK UP IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WITH MARGINAL GRADIENTS AND A LACK OF A STABLE LAYER ALOFT...DO
NOT BELIEVE THAT HIGH WINDS WILL BE COMMON. HOWEVER DID INCLUDE
GUSTS TO 55 MPH IN THE HWO FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS. THE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO DECREASE BY MIDDAY WED AND WINDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
COME DOWN SOME AT THAT POINT. WINDS SHOULD BE WEAKER ON THURS AS
THE STRONGEST 700 MB FLOW SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA/NEBRASKA. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE MILD FOR FEB WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW-TO-MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON FRIDAY AS A FAST-
MOVING SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A FAIRLY MILD
AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND H7 TEMPS IN
THE 0 TO +3 DEG C RANGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE
SHOWING THIS SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE WY/MT BORDER SOMETIME LATE SAT
NIGHT OR SUN MORNING. THE GFS SHOWS H75 FLOW INCREASING TO 45 TO 55
KTS OVER THE WIND CORRIDORS AS LOW-LEVEL GRADIENTS STRENGTHEN. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A MARGINAL HIGH WIND EPISODE FOR ARL/BRX AND POSSIBLY
THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE BEST FORCING GOING TO THE NORTH...BUT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS POSSIBLE OVER CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES THIS WEEKEND. UPPER-LVL
RIDGING RETURNS FOR NEXT WEEK WITH VERY WARM/DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
LIKELY. NO BIG WEATHER IMPACTS IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. MID-LEVEL CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TODAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING TERMINALS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM DUE TO THE
CURRENT SNOWPACK AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEK. BREEZY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 50S BY MIDWEEK ACROSS THE
PLAINS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...ZF



000
FXUS63 KUNR 092042
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
142 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 135 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

1930Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A N/S ORIENTED BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S
AND 50S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND
30S ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
RADAR REVEALS SOME LIGHT ECHOES OVER THE EASTERN-MOST COUNTIES IN
THE CWA...THOUGH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS NOT BEEN
REACHING THE GROUND WITH ONLY A FEW STATIONS RECORDING TRACE
AMOUNTS.

TONIGHT...BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE
CWA. COULD HAVE A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE 06Z. OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA AND WE WILL SEE GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY COULD BE A BIT TRICKY...AS WARMEST
AIR ALOFT IS OVER THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...AND MODELS INDICATE
DECENT CAA AT 850MB AND 700MB DURING THE DAY. CURRENT THINKING IS
AREAS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL
PROBABLY MIX OUT THE INVERSION IN THE MORNING AND EASILY REACH INTO
THE 50S FOR HIGHS...WHILE THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS MAY TAKE A BIT
LONGER TO MIX DOWN AND WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS PROG A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH SURFACE WINDS
SWITCHING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE EAST. SOME MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A STRATUS DECK JUST OFF THE SURFACE A COUPLE
OF THOUSAND FEET IN DEPTH...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THERE MAY BE SOME
FOG IN AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL HOLD
OFF ON PUTTING IT IN THE GRIDS GIVEN SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON
MOISTURE IN LOW LEVELS...BUT WILL MONITOR FOR FUTURE FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 135 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

AMPLIFIED ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL PERSIST IN THE PERIOD. WESTERN NOAM
POSITIVE MID LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALY WILL REMAIN CENTERED JUST WEST
OF THE REGION...WITH ACTIVE NW FLOW TO THE EAST. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A LL BAROCLINIC ZONE WAVERING ACROSS THE REGION WITH MILD CONDS
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA....AND MUCH COOLER CONDS OVER
EASTERN AREAS. MID/LEVEL IMPULSES PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE FA
WILL FLUCTUATE THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME BOUTS OF
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP EASTERN HALF. A STRONGER WAVE WILL ADVECT
THROUGH THE RIDGE SAT-SUN...SUPPORTING BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN/SNOW OVER AREA...ESP NE WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS.
HOWEVER...MILD NW FLOW LOOKS TO PERSIST BEHIND THIS WAVE AS ARCTIC
AIR WILL REMAIN BOTTLED TO THE NORTH PER FLOW BLOCKING OVER
CENTRAL CANADA WHILE PAC FLOW SPREADS FURTHER EAST INTO THE
MIDWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY.
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER
CENTRAL SD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MAINLY FROM LEMMON TO WHITE RIVER
AND EAST.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 092042
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
142 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 135 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

1930Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A N/S ORIENTED BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S
AND 50S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND
30S ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
RADAR REVEALS SOME LIGHT ECHOES OVER THE EASTERN-MOST COUNTIES IN
THE CWA...THOUGH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS NOT BEEN
REACHING THE GROUND WITH ONLY A FEW STATIONS RECORDING TRACE
AMOUNTS.

TONIGHT...BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE
CWA. COULD HAVE A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE 06Z. OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA AND WE WILL SEE GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY COULD BE A BIT TRICKY...AS WARMEST
AIR ALOFT IS OVER THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...AND MODELS INDICATE
DECENT CAA AT 850MB AND 700MB DURING THE DAY. CURRENT THINKING IS
AREAS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL
PROBABLY MIX OUT THE INVERSION IN THE MORNING AND EASILY REACH INTO
THE 50S FOR HIGHS...WHILE THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS MAY TAKE A BIT
LONGER TO MIX DOWN AND WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS PROG A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH SURFACE WINDS
SWITCHING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE EAST. SOME MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A STRATUS DECK JUST OFF THE SURFACE A COUPLE
OF THOUSAND FEET IN DEPTH...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THERE MAY BE SOME
FOG IN AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL HOLD
OFF ON PUTTING IT IN THE GRIDS GIVEN SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON
MOISTURE IN LOW LEVELS...BUT WILL MONITOR FOR FUTURE FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 135 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

AMPLIFIED ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL PERSIST IN THE PERIOD. WESTERN NOAM
POSITIVE MID LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALY WILL REMAIN CENTERED JUST WEST
OF THE REGION...WITH ACTIVE NW FLOW TO THE EAST. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A LL BAROCLINIC ZONE WAVERING ACROSS THE REGION WITH MILD CONDS
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA....AND MUCH COOLER CONDS OVER
EASTERN AREAS. MID/LEVEL IMPULSES PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE FA
WILL FLUCTUATE THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME BOUTS OF
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP EASTERN HALF. A STRONGER WAVE WILL ADVECT
THROUGH THE RIDGE SAT-SUN...SUPPORTING BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN/SNOW OVER AREA...ESP NE WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS.
HOWEVER...MILD NW FLOW LOOKS TO PERSIST BEHIND THIS WAVE AS ARCTIC
AIR WILL REMAIN BOTTLED TO THE NORTH PER FLOW BLOCKING OVER
CENTRAL CANADA WHILE PAC FLOW SPREADS FURTHER EAST INTO THE
MIDWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY.
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER
CENTRAL SD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MAINLY FROM LEMMON TO WHITE RIVER
AND EAST.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 092042
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
142 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 135 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

1930Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A N/S ORIENTED BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S
AND 50S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND
30S ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
RADAR REVEALS SOME LIGHT ECHOES OVER THE EASTERN-MOST COUNTIES IN
THE CWA...THOUGH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS NOT BEEN
REACHING THE GROUND WITH ONLY A FEW STATIONS RECORDING TRACE
AMOUNTS.

TONIGHT...BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE
CWA. COULD HAVE A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE 06Z. OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA AND WE WILL SEE GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY COULD BE A BIT TRICKY...AS WARMEST
AIR ALOFT IS OVER THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...AND MODELS INDICATE
DECENT CAA AT 850MB AND 700MB DURING THE DAY. CURRENT THINKING IS
AREAS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL
PROBABLY MIX OUT THE INVERSION IN THE MORNING AND EASILY REACH INTO
THE 50S FOR HIGHS...WHILE THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS MAY TAKE A BIT
LONGER TO MIX DOWN AND WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS PROG A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH SURFACE WINDS
SWITCHING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE EAST. SOME MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A STRATUS DECK JUST OFF THE SURFACE A COUPLE
OF THOUSAND FEET IN DEPTH...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THERE MAY BE SOME
FOG IN AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL HOLD
OFF ON PUTTING IT IN THE GRIDS GIVEN SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON
MOISTURE IN LOW LEVELS...BUT WILL MONITOR FOR FUTURE FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 135 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

AMPLIFIED ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL PERSIST IN THE PERIOD. WESTERN NOAM
POSITIVE MID LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALY WILL REMAIN CENTERED JUST WEST
OF THE REGION...WITH ACTIVE NW FLOW TO THE EAST. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A LL BAROCLINIC ZONE WAVERING ACROSS THE REGION WITH MILD CONDS
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA....AND MUCH COOLER CONDS OVER
EASTERN AREAS. MID/LEVEL IMPULSES PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE FA
WILL FLUCTUATE THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME BOUTS OF
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP EASTERN HALF. A STRONGER WAVE WILL ADVECT
THROUGH THE RIDGE SAT-SUN...SUPPORTING BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN/SNOW OVER AREA...ESP NE WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS.
HOWEVER...MILD NW FLOW LOOKS TO PERSIST BEHIND THIS WAVE AS ARCTIC
AIR WILL REMAIN BOTTLED TO THE NORTH PER FLOW BLOCKING OVER
CENTRAL CANADA WHILE PAC FLOW SPREADS FURTHER EAST INTO THE
MIDWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY.
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER
CENTRAL SD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MAINLY FROM LEMMON TO WHITE RIVER
AND EAST.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS65 KRIW 092020
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
120 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WIND WILL BE THE MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM AS A LEE TROUGH DIGS
AT THE SURFACE AND A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS ALONG THE
ABSAROKAS. THERE IS A WEAK MOUNTAIN WAVE SIGNATURE THAT DEVELOPS
ALONG THE CODY FOOTHILLS. FLOW ACROSS THE BARRIER IS MARGINAL AND
THE DIRECTION OF THE FLOW IS HOLDING TO MUCH OF A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT FOR A CLASSIC CLARK BREAKING MOUNTAIN WAVE...BUT THERE
WILL BE SOME GUSTY CROSS WINDS ALONG HIGHWAY 120 AND FOR AREAS
WEST OF CODY AND AROUND CLARK TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THERE COULD BE SOME 30 TO 40 MPH WINDS COMING OUT OF THE CANYONS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE IN FAVORED AREAS.
OTHERWISE...FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE RED DESERT TO CASPER AS
THE LEE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SET UP WITH 20 TO 35 MPH WINDS COMMON
IN THAT AREA.

THE GOOD NEWS WITH ALL OF THE WIND IS THAT THERE WILL BE WARM AIR
ALOFT MIXING DOWN. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME RECORD HIGHS IN
FOOTHILL LOCATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THE WESTERN VALLEYS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER RATHER STEEP INVERSIONS WITH MORNING FOG
OBSCURING THE SKIES AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR MIXING IN THE BASINS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...BUT EVEN IF WE DO
NOT FULLY MIX THERE WILL STILL BE A NICE SUNNY AND MILD DAY FOR
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

MAINLY QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE INTO MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE USUAL LOCATIONS LIKE NEAR CLARK AND ALSO ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN WIND CORRIDOR HOWEVER HIGH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. A WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE WILL THEN
SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS
SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE BUT EVEN THESE LOOK TO BE
FAIRLY INCONSEQUENTIAL. THE FRONT COULD MIX OUT THE BASINS A BIT
MORE FOR THURSDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS SLOW
CLIMB ACROSS THE BASINS AS THE ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES MELT THE
SNOW PACK AND THE ALBEDO DECREASES THROUGH FRIDAY. ALL IN ALL THE
RESULTS OF RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA.

BY SATURDAY ANOTHER WAVE WILL APPROACH THE WEST. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS WITH THE EUROPEAN SHOWING A BOUNDARY
SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS FURTHER
NORTH AND KEEPS PRECIPITATION ACROSS MONTANA. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY
WE MADE FEW CHANGES. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY MAY BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BUT
AGAIN THE BEST MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
ALMOST ALL THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE SHOULD REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE MODELS REALLY DIVERGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS REBUILDS THE
RIDGE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE COWBOY
STATE. MEANWHILE...THE EUROPEAN HAS A FLATTER RIDGE WITH SOME
DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE TOP OF IT. BUT AGAIN...MOST OF THE
ENERGY AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO STAY ACROSS MONTANA AND THE MODEL IS
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE 00Z RUN. FOR NOW...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO
CONTINUITY UNTIL THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

FOG/LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN AFTER 06Z TONIGHT IN THE WESTERN
VALLEYS...PERSISTING INTO THE LATE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
DUBOIS AND CASPER AREAS...AS WELL AS IN THE MOUNTAINS...CREATING
MOUNTAIN TURBULENCE...ELEVATED MOUNTAIN WAVES LEE OF THE ABSAROKAS
AND WIND RIVERS AND POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE
FOOTHILLS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MERIT A MENTION IN THE TAF BUT BE
AWARE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF LLWS IN THE FOOTHILLS...
ESPECIALLY IF TERMINAL WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS
ASIDE FROM OCCNL MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN WESTERN VALLEY FOG.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

STEEP TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS
WILL LEAD TO VERY POOR SMOKE DISPERSION. WINDS...HOWEVER...WILL
BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE ACROSS THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREA OF CENTRAL
WYOMING. WEDNESDAY...AREAS IN AND ADJACENT TO THE ABSAROKA
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS OVER 50 MPH NEAR THE CANYONS. IT
WILL BE FAIRLY WINDY FROM THE RED DESERT TO CASPER WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...WHICH WILL IMPROVE SMOKE DISPERSION IN THESE AREAS. NO
MAJOR SNOW STORMS OR WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND EVENTS ARE ON THE
HORIZON...

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...ALLEN
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN




000
FXUS65 KRIW 091801
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1101 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.PREV DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS ARE BECOMING RATHER STARK. FOR EXAMPLE...HERE
IN OUR COZY PROTECTED WIND RIVER BASIN WE ARE SITTING AT 28DEGREES
HERE ATOP GRIFFEY HILL AT THE NWS LOCATION...WHILE IT IS 22
DEGREES AT THE NEARBY RIW ASOS SITE...AND ONLY 1 ABOVE RIGHT ALONG
THE LITTLE WIND RIVER 2 MILES SOUTH OF RIVERTON AT THE TIME OF
THIS WRITING. ABOVE THE INVERSION...BOTH CROWHEART AND DUBOIS HAVE
36 DEGREES WITH NW WINDS OF 29 GUST 37 MPH IN DUBOIS IN THE UPPER
WIND RIVER BASIN AS THE NW GRADIENT WIND ALONG THE FRONT OF THE
BUILDING RIDGE CONTINUES TO MIX OUT AREAS ABOVE THE INVERSIONS.
THESE TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL BE A PLAYER THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING. BY WEDNESDAY...700MB TEMPS WILL RISE TO 4C OVER
CENTRAL WY AS THE STRONG RIDGE TO THE WEST ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA. BY WEDNESDAY...WE WILL WITNESS NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE
50S AND EVEN SOME LOW 60S IN AREAS LIKE THE CODY FOOTHILLS AS WELL
AS JOHNSON COUNTY INCLUDING BYG. OTHER AREAS THAT MIX OUT SUCH AS
THE SOUTHERN WIND CORRIDOR FROM THE RED DESERT TO CPR WILL NOT GET
AS WARM AS THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF SNOW COVER TO MELT DOWN IN
THOSE AREAS SO 40S ARE MORE LIKELY IN THOSE AREAS WED. THE TRAPPED
BASINS AND VALLEYS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S. BY
WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN A BIT ALLOWING A COUPLE OF WEAK
VORT LOBES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE SFC GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE AS AN ASCT SFC LOW TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
MT AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS INCREASING THE SFC GRADIENT THAT WILL
PRECEDE A LEE SIDE SFC TROUGH. H7 WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS
WED. THIS WILL BE THE MECHANICS DRIVING THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WIND FROM THE RED DESERT TO CPR ON WEDNESDAY HELPING TO DRAW IN
THE WARMER AIR. IN ADDITION...THE CODY/CLARK AREA WILL EXPERIENCE
INCREASING WEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AS A MARGINAL TEMP GRADIENT
BETWEEN YNP AND THE CODY FTHLS DVLPS ALONG WITH A WEAK MTN WAVE
SIGNATURE. IN ADDITION...THE FROUDE NUMBER FOR 15Z WED IS FCST TO
BE A 1.OO. WESTERLY EXITING WINDS ON THE CROSS SECTION ARE
STRONGER THEN THE WINDS ENTERING THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL HANDLE THE
CLARK/CODY WINDS WITH AN SPS AS HIGH WIND POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
BORDERLINE AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE WED...A
MAINLY DRY BACKDOOR COOL FRONT WILL LOWER TEMPS ON
THURSDAY...EXCEPT WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE TEMPS IN AREAS STILL
TRAPPED WITHIN STRONG INVERSIONS. ONE SIDE NOTE...PATCHY LATE
NIGHT AND MORNING FOG WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS AND
BASINS AS WELL AS IN THE WIND RIVER BASIN TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH FAVORABLE SOUNDINGS INDICATING DRY AND MILD AIR
ATOP STRONG MOIST COLD AIR...ESPECIALLY ON TUE/WED MORNINGS. A FEW
SNOW FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NW MTNS AND IN THE BIG HORNS
BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COOL FRONT THU NT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MEAN LONGWAVE RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE THE FLOW WILL LIKELY FLATTEN. MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE. BOTH THE GFS AND
EURO SEEM RATHER STRONG FOR A SYSTEM ENTERING A STRONG RIDGE. THE
GEM IS FURTHER NORTH WITH JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF PCPN TO THE FAR
NORTH. THE GFS IS ALSO ON THE SLOW END WITH THE EURO ON THE FAST
END. POPS ARE LOW NOW FOR THE MTNS AND FAR NORTH SO NOT A BIG DEAL
BUT LEAN TOWARDS A WEAKER SYSTEM THAN THE GFS/EURO ARE SHOWING.
SOME INCREASE IN WIND PROBABLY WITH SOME INVERSIONS WEAKENING OR
BREAKING BUT LIMITED PCPN CHANCES AND MAINLY OVER THE MTNS/FAR
NORTH. AFTER THAT...AS THE EXPECTED FLOW FLATTENS...WE`LL SEE MORE
WIND IN THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS AND WIND CORRIDOR WITH MORE UPGLIDE
PCPN ACROSS THE WEST. TEMPS COULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO GET SOME MIXED
PCPN OR EVEN VALLEY RAIN BY THEN...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH WITH
TIME. INCREASED GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT WILL HELP MIX THE BASINS
AND VALLEYS ALSO.

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

FOG/LOW CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO BREAK UP OVER THE FAR WESTERN
VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE JAC TERMINAL. REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT IN THE SAME AREAS. OTHERWISE...BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINSD ARE EXPECTED IN THE DUBOIS AND CASPER AREAS...AS
WELL AS IN THE MOUNTAINS...CREATING MOUNTAIN TURBULENCE AND
POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE FOOTHILLS...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO MERIT A MENTION IN THE TAF BUT BE AWARE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF
BRIEF LLWS IN THE FOOTHILLS...ESPECIALLY IF TERMINAL WINDS ARE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS ASIDE FROM WESTERN VALLEY FOG.

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER REMAINS LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK...WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS AND
SNOW COVERING MANY SURFACES. WINDS...HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE BREEZY
SIDE TODAY ACROSS THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREA OF CENTRAL WYOMING.
WEDNESDAY...AREAS IN AND ADJACENT TO THE ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS COULD
SEE NEAR HIGH WIND CRITERIA. IT WILL BE FAIRLY WINDY FROM THE RED
DESERT TO CASPER WEDNESDAY AS WELL. OTHERWISE...MOST LATE MORNINGS
AND AFTERNOONS ACROSS WYOMING SHOULD SEE GOOD SMOKE DISPERSION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...ALLEN
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON



000
FXUS65 KRIW 091801
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1101 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.PREV DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS ARE BECOMING RATHER STARK. FOR EXAMPLE...HERE
IN OUR COZY PROTECTED WIND RIVER BASIN WE ARE SITTING AT 28DEGREES
HERE ATOP GRIFFEY HILL AT THE NWS LOCATION...WHILE IT IS 22
DEGREES AT THE NEARBY RIW ASOS SITE...AND ONLY 1 ABOVE RIGHT ALONG
THE LITTLE WIND RIVER 2 MILES SOUTH OF RIVERTON AT THE TIME OF
THIS WRITING. ABOVE THE INVERSION...BOTH CROWHEART AND DUBOIS HAVE
36 DEGREES WITH NW WINDS OF 29 GUST 37 MPH IN DUBOIS IN THE UPPER
WIND RIVER BASIN AS THE NW GRADIENT WIND ALONG THE FRONT OF THE
BUILDING RIDGE CONTINUES TO MIX OUT AREAS ABOVE THE INVERSIONS.
THESE TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL BE A PLAYER THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING. BY WEDNESDAY...700MB TEMPS WILL RISE TO 4C OVER
CENTRAL WY AS THE STRONG RIDGE TO THE WEST ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA. BY WEDNESDAY...WE WILL WITNESS NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE
50S AND EVEN SOME LOW 60S IN AREAS LIKE THE CODY FOOTHILLS AS WELL
AS JOHNSON COUNTY INCLUDING BYG. OTHER AREAS THAT MIX OUT SUCH AS
THE SOUTHERN WIND CORRIDOR FROM THE RED DESERT TO CPR WILL NOT GET
AS WARM AS THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF SNOW COVER TO MELT DOWN IN
THOSE AREAS SO 40S ARE MORE LIKELY IN THOSE AREAS WED. THE TRAPPED
BASINS AND VALLEYS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S. BY
WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN A BIT ALLOWING A COUPLE OF WEAK
VORT LOBES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE SFC GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE AS AN ASCT SFC LOW TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
MT AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS INCREASING THE SFC GRADIENT THAT WILL
PRECEDE A LEE SIDE SFC TROUGH. H7 WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS
WED. THIS WILL BE THE MECHANICS DRIVING THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WIND FROM THE RED DESERT TO CPR ON WEDNESDAY HELPING TO DRAW IN
THE WARMER AIR. IN ADDITION...THE CODY/CLARK AREA WILL EXPERIENCE
INCREASING WEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AS A MARGINAL TEMP GRADIENT
BETWEEN YNP AND THE CODY FTHLS DVLPS ALONG WITH A WEAK MTN WAVE
SIGNATURE. IN ADDITION...THE FROUDE NUMBER FOR 15Z WED IS FCST TO
BE A 1.OO. WESTERLY EXITING WINDS ON THE CROSS SECTION ARE
STRONGER THEN THE WINDS ENTERING THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL HANDLE THE
CLARK/CODY WINDS WITH AN SPS AS HIGH WIND POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
BORDERLINE AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE WED...A
MAINLY DRY BACKDOOR COOL FRONT WILL LOWER TEMPS ON
THURSDAY...EXCEPT WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE TEMPS IN AREAS STILL
TRAPPED WITHIN STRONG INVERSIONS. ONE SIDE NOTE...PATCHY LATE
NIGHT AND MORNING FOG WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS AND
BASINS AS WELL AS IN THE WIND RIVER BASIN TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH FAVORABLE SOUNDINGS INDICATING DRY AND MILD AIR
ATOP STRONG MOIST COLD AIR...ESPECIALLY ON TUE/WED MORNINGS. A FEW
SNOW FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NW MTNS AND IN THE BIG HORNS
BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COOL FRONT THU NT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MEAN LONGWAVE RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE THE FLOW WILL LIKELY FLATTEN. MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE. BOTH THE GFS AND
EURO SEEM RATHER STRONG FOR A SYSTEM ENTERING A STRONG RIDGE. THE
GEM IS FURTHER NORTH WITH JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF PCPN TO THE FAR
NORTH. THE GFS IS ALSO ON THE SLOW END WITH THE EURO ON THE FAST
END. POPS ARE LOW NOW FOR THE MTNS AND FAR NORTH SO NOT A BIG DEAL
BUT LEAN TOWARDS A WEAKER SYSTEM THAN THE GFS/EURO ARE SHOWING.
SOME INCREASE IN WIND PROBABLY WITH SOME INVERSIONS WEAKENING OR
BREAKING BUT LIMITED PCPN CHANCES AND MAINLY OVER THE MTNS/FAR
NORTH. AFTER THAT...AS THE EXPECTED FLOW FLATTENS...WE`LL SEE MORE
WIND IN THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS AND WIND CORRIDOR WITH MORE UPGLIDE
PCPN ACROSS THE WEST. TEMPS COULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO GET SOME MIXED
PCPN OR EVEN VALLEY RAIN BY THEN...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH WITH
TIME. INCREASED GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT WILL HELP MIX THE BASINS
AND VALLEYS ALSO.

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

FOG/LOW CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO BREAK UP OVER THE FAR WESTERN
VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE JAC TERMINAL. REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT IN THE SAME AREAS. OTHERWISE...BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINSD ARE EXPECTED IN THE DUBOIS AND CASPER AREAS...AS
WELL AS IN THE MOUNTAINS...CREATING MOUNTAIN TURBULENCE AND
POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE FOOTHILLS...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO MERIT A MENTION IN THE TAF BUT BE AWARE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF
BRIEF LLWS IN THE FOOTHILLS...ESPECIALLY IF TERMINAL WINDS ARE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS ASIDE FROM WESTERN VALLEY FOG.

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER REMAINS LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK...WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS AND
SNOW COVERING MANY SURFACES. WINDS...HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE BREEZY
SIDE TODAY ACROSS THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREA OF CENTRAL WYOMING.
WEDNESDAY...AREAS IN AND ADJACENT TO THE ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS COULD
SEE NEAR HIGH WIND CRITERIA. IT WILL BE FAIRLY WINDY FROM THE RED
DESERT TO CASPER WEDNESDAY AS WELL. OTHERWISE...MOST LATE MORNINGS
AND AFTERNOONS ACROSS WYOMING SHOULD SEE GOOD SMOKE DISPERSION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...ALLEN
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON




000
FXUS65 KRIW 091801
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1101 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.PREV DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS ARE BECOMING RATHER STARK. FOR EXAMPLE...HERE
IN OUR COZY PROTECTED WIND RIVER BASIN WE ARE SITTING AT 28DEGREES
HERE ATOP GRIFFEY HILL AT THE NWS LOCATION...WHILE IT IS 22
DEGREES AT THE NEARBY RIW ASOS SITE...AND ONLY 1 ABOVE RIGHT ALONG
THE LITTLE WIND RIVER 2 MILES SOUTH OF RIVERTON AT THE TIME OF
THIS WRITING. ABOVE THE INVERSION...BOTH CROWHEART AND DUBOIS HAVE
36 DEGREES WITH NW WINDS OF 29 GUST 37 MPH IN DUBOIS IN THE UPPER
WIND RIVER BASIN AS THE NW GRADIENT WIND ALONG THE FRONT OF THE
BUILDING RIDGE CONTINUES TO MIX OUT AREAS ABOVE THE INVERSIONS.
THESE TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL BE A PLAYER THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING. BY WEDNESDAY...700MB TEMPS WILL RISE TO 4C OVER
CENTRAL WY AS THE STRONG RIDGE TO THE WEST ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA. BY WEDNESDAY...WE WILL WITNESS NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE
50S AND EVEN SOME LOW 60S IN AREAS LIKE THE CODY FOOTHILLS AS WELL
AS JOHNSON COUNTY INCLUDING BYG. OTHER AREAS THAT MIX OUT SUCH AS
THE SOUTHERN WIND CORRIDOR FROM THE RED DESERT TO CPR WILL NOT GET
AS WARM AS THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF SNOW COVER TO MELT DOWN IN
THOSE AREAS SO 40S ARE MORE LIKELY IN THOSE AREAS WED. THE TRAPPED
BASINS AND VALLEYS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S. BY
WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN A BIT ALLOWING A COUPLE OF WEAK
VORT LOBES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE SFC GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE AS AN ASCT SFC LOW TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
MT AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS INCREASING THE SFC GRADIENT THAT WILL
PRECEDE A LEE SIDE SFC TROUGH. H7 WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS
WED. THIS WILL BE THE MECHANICS DRIVING THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WIND FROM THE RED DESERT TO CPR ON WEDNESDAY HELPING TO DRAW IN
THE WARMER AIR. IN ADDITION...THE CODY/CLARK AREA WILL EXPERIENCE
INCREASING WEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AS A MARGINAL TEMP GRADIENT
BETWEEN YNP AND THE CODY FTHLS DVLPS ALONG WITH A WEAK MTN WAVE
SIGNATURE. IN ADDITION...THE FROUDE NUMBER FOR 15Z WED IS FCST TO
BE A 1.OO. WESTERLY EXITING WINDS ON THE CROSS SECTION ARE
STRONGER THEN THE WINDS ENTERING THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL HANDLE THE
CLARK/CODY WINDS WITH AN SPS AS HIGH WIND POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
BORDERLINE AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE WED...A
MAINLY DRY BACKDOOR COOL FRONT WILL LOWER TEMPS ON
THURSDAY...EXCEPT WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE TEMPS IN AREAS STILL
TRAPPED WITHIN STRONG INVERSIONS. ONE SIDE NOTE...PATCHY LATE
NIGHT AND MORNING FOG WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS AND
BASINS AS WELL AS IN THE WIND RIVER BASIN TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH FAVORABLE SOUNDINGS INDICATING DRY AND MILD AIR
ATOP STRONG MOIST COLD AIR...ESPECIALLY ON TUE/WED MORNINGS. A FEW
SNOW FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NW MTNS AND IN THE BIG HORNS
BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COOL FRONT THU NT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MEAN LONGWAVE RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE THE FLOW WILL LIKELY FLATTEN. MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE. BOTH THE GFS AND
EURO SEEM RATHER STRONG FOR A SYSTEM ENTERING A STRONG RIDGE. THE
GEM IS FURTHER NORTH WITH JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF PCPN TO THE FAR
NORTH. THE GFS IS ALSO ON THE SLOW END WITH THE EURO ON THE FAST
END. POPS ARE LOW NOW FOR THE MTNS AND FAR NORTH SO NOT A BIG DEAL
BUT LEAN TOWARDS A WEAKER SYSTEM THAN THE GFS/EURO ARE SHOWING.
SOME INCREASE IN WIND PROBABLY WITH SOME INVERSIONS WEAKENING OR
BREAKING BUT LIMITED PCPN CHANCES AND MAINLY OVER THE MTNS/FAR
NORTH. AFTER THAT...AS THE EXPECTED FLOW FLATTENS...WE`LL SEE MORE
WIND IN THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS AND WIND CORRIDOR WITH MORE UPGLIDE
PCPN ACROSS THE WEST. TEMPS COULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO GET SOME MIXED
PCPN OR EVEN VALLEY RAIN BY THEN...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH WITH
TIME. INCREASED GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT WILL HELP MIX THE BASINS
AND VALLEYS ALSO.

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

FOG/LOW CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO BREAK UP OVER THE FAR WESTERN
VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE JAC TERMINAL. REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT IN THE SAME AREAS. OTHERWISE...BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINSD ARE EXPECTED IN THE DUBOIS AND CASPER AREAS...AS
WELL AS IN THE MOUNTAINS...CREATING MOUNTAIN TURBULENCE AND
POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE FOOTHILLS...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO MERIT A MENTION IN THE TAF BUT BE AWARE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF
BRIEF LLWS IN THE FOOTHILLS...ESPECIALLY IF TERMINAL WINDS ARE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS ASIDE FROM WESTERN VALLEY FOG.

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER REMAINS LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK...WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS AND
SNOW COVERING MANY SURFACES. WINDS...HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE BREEZY
SIDE TODAY ACROSS THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREA OF CENTRAL WYOMING.
WEDNESDAY...AREAS IN AND ADJACENT TO THE ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS COULD
SEE NEAR HIGH WIND CRITERIA. IT WILL BE FAIRLY WINDY FROM THE RED
DESERT TO CASPER WEDNESDAY AS WELL. OTHERWISE...MOST LATE MORNINGS
AND AFTERNOONS ACROSS WYOMING SHOULD SEE GOOD SMOKE DISPERSION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...ALLEN
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON




000
FXUS65 KCYS 091742
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1042 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN STAGNANT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA. 700 MB TEMPS RISING TO ABOVE ZERO
READINGS WILL YIELD MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S/50S EAST AND 30S/40S
WEST...WITH THE WARMEST DAY LOOKING TO BE WEDNESDAY. COULD BE
WARMER THOUGH DEPENDING ON HOW QUICK THE SNOWPACK MELTS WHICH WILL
HAVE A HAND IN MIXING THE WARMER TEMPS DOWN TO THE SFC. KEPT THE
FORECAST CLOSE TO THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE AS A DECENT SNOW PACK
IS STILL IN PLACE.

BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THIS PATTERN AS WELL. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PAC NW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
FLATTEN THE RIDGE A BIT AND WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TO
INCREASE THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
GRADIENT PROGS SUGGEST HIGH SUSTAINED WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT WINDS ALOFT ARE PROGGED TO BE 45 KTS OR LESS THROUGH
THIS TIME WHICH SUGGESTS THAT GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL. WILL
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SITUATION OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECAST
CYCLES TO SEE IF HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS ARE NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST AND ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE MAKING ITS APPROACH TO
THE REGION SATURDAY. MILD AND DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
THEN A COOL FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS LATE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. NOT MUCH
PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST BUT A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION SAT NIGHT. DRY
AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
THOUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE WINDY IN AT LEAST SOME AREAS WITH A
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT. A BIT WARMER FOR MONDAY UNDER NWLY FLOW
ALOFT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. MID-LEVEL CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TODAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING TERMINALS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 233 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM DUE TO THE
CURRENT SNOWPACK AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEK. BREEZY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 50S BY MIDWEEK ACROSS THE
PLAINS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...RJM




000
FXUS65 KCYS 091742
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1042 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN STAGNANT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA. 700 MB TEMPS RISING TO ABOVE ZERO
READINGS WILL YIELD MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S/50S EAST AND 30S/40S
WEST...WITH THE WARMEST DAY LOOKING TO BE WEDNESDAY. COULD BE
WARMER THOUGH DEPENDING ON HOW QUICK THE SNOWPACK MELTS WHICH WILL
HAVE A HAND IN MIXING THE WARMER TEMPS DOWN TO THE SFC. KEPT THE
FORECAST CLOSE TO THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE AS A DECENT SNOW PACK
IS STILL IN PLACE.

BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THIS PATTERN AS WELL. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PAC NW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
FLATTEN THE RIDGE A BIT AND WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TO
INCREASE THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
GRADIENT PROGS SUGGEST HIGH SUSTAINED WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT WINDS ALOFT ARE PROGGED TO BE 45 KTS OR LESS THROUGH
THIS TIME WHICH SUGGESTS THAT GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL. WILL
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SITUATION OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECAST
CYCLES TO SEE IF HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS ARE NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST AND ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE MAKING ITS APPROACH TO
THE REGION SATURDAY. MILD AND DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
THEN A COOL FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS LATE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. NOT MUCH
PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST BUT A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION SAT NIGHT. DRY
AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
THOUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE WINDY IN AT LEAST SOME AREAS WITH A
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT. A BIT WARMER FOR MONDAY UNDER NWLY FLOW
ALOFT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. MID-LEVEL CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TODAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING TERMINALS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 233 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM DUE TO THE
CURRENT SNOWPACK AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEK. BREEZY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 50S BY MIDWEEK ACROSS THE
PLAINS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...RJM



000
FXUS65 KCYS 091742
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1042 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN STAGNANT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA. 700 MB TEMPS RISING TO ABOVE ZERO
READINGS WILL YIELD MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S/50S EAST AND 30S/40S
WEST...WITH THE WARMEST DAY LOOKING TO BE WEDNESDAY. COULD BE
WARMER THOUGH DEPENDING ON HOW QUICK THE SNOWPACK MELTS WHICH WILL
HAVE A HAND IN MIXING THE WARMER TEMPS DOWN TO THE SFC. KEPT THE
FORECAST CLOSE TO THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE AS A DECENT SNOW PACK
IS STILL IN PLACE.

BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THIS PATTERN AS WELL. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PAC NW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
FLATTEN THE RIDGE A BIT AND WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TO
INCREASE THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
GRADIENT PROGS SUGGEST HIGH SUSTAINED WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT WINDS ALOFT ARE PROGGED TO BE 45 KTS OR LESS THROUGH
THIS TIME WHICH SUGGESTS THAT GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL. WILL
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SITUATION OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECAST
CYCLES TO SEE IF HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS ARE NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST AND ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE MAKING ITS APPROACH TO
THE REGION SATURDAY. MILD AND DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
THEN A COOL FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS LATE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. NOT MUCH
PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST BUT A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION SAT NIGHT. DRY
AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
THOUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE WINDY IN AT LEAST SOME AREAS WITH A
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT. A BIT WARMER FOR MONDAY UNDER NWLY FLOW
ALOFT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. MID-LEVEL CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TODAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING TERMINALS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 233 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM DUE TO THE
CURRENT SNOWPACK AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEK. BREEZY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 50S BY MIDWEEK ACROSS THE
PLAINS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...RJM




000
FXUS63 KUNR 091734
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1034 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 157 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL STATES...WITH A
120 KT UPPER JET BETWEEN THE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING A FEW FLURRIES
ACROSS CENTRAL SD ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. WINDS ARE
LIGHT..AND TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL SD
AND THE NORTHERN HILLS. CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AND WEAK UPPER ENERGY PASSES OVER THE AREA. PROFILES
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL SD...SO HAVE ADDED MENTION IN GRIDS. HIGHS TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...TO THE
UPPER 40S FARTHER WEST.

WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WEAK SURFACE LOW
SLIDES INTO SD...AND WARM AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S...WARMEST ALONG THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS.
COOLER AIR BEGINS PUSHING INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
20S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 157 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CREATE AMPLIFIED
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MID LEVEL IMPULSES
PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA COOLING DOWN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MILD AND DRY NW FLOW WILL REDEVELOP BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH AS THE ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN BOTTLED TO
THE NORTH DUE TO FLOW BLOCKING OVER CENTRAL CANADA. OVERALL...LOOK
FOR MILD CONDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WED-THUR...WITH COOLER TEMPS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF FRI-SAT BEFORE MILD WEATHER RETURNS TO ALL
AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY.
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER
CENTRAL SD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MAINLY FROM LEMMON TO WHITE RIVER
AND EAST.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 091734
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1034 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 157 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL STATES...WITH A
120 KT UPPER JET BETWEEN THE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING A FEW FLURRIES
ACROSS CENTRAL SD ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. WINDS ARE
LIGHT..AND TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL SD
AND THE NORTHERN HILLS. CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AND WEAK UPPER ENERGY PASSES OVER THE AREA. PROFILES
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL SD...SO HAVE ADDED MENTION IN GRIDS. HIGHS TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...TO THE
UPPER 40S FARTHER WEST.

WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WEAK SURFACE LOW
SLIDES INTO SD...AND WARM AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S...WARMEST ALONG THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS.
COOLER AIR BEGINS PUSHING INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
20S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 157 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CREATE AMPLIFIED
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MID LEVEL IMPULSES
PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA COOLING DOWN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MILD AND DRY NW FLOW WILL REDEVELOP BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH AS THE ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN BOTTLED TO
THE NORTH DUE TO FLOW BLOCKING OVER CENTRAL CANADA. OVERALL...LOOK
FOR MILD CONDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WED-THUR...WITH COOLER TEMPS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF FRI-SAT BEFORE MILD WEATHER RETURNS TO ALL
AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY.
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER
CENTRAL SD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MAINLY FROM LEMMON TO WHITE RIVER
AND EAST.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 091734
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1034 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 157 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL STATES...WITH A
120 KT UPPER JET BETWEEN THE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING A FEW FLURRIES
ACROSS CENTRAL SD ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. WINDS ARE
LIGHT..AND TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL SD
AND THE NORTHERN HILLS. CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AND WEAK UPPER ENERGY PASSES OVER THE AREA. PROFILES
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL SD...SO HAVE ADDED MENTION IN GRIDS. HIGHS TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...TO THE
UPPER 40S FARTHER WEST.

WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WEAK SURFACE LOW
SLIDES INTO SD...AND WARM AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S...WARMEST ALONG THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS.
COOLER AIR BEGINS PUSHING INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
20S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 157 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CREATE AMPLIFIED
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MID LEVEL IMPULSES
PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA COOLING DOWN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MILD AND DRY NW FLOW WILL REDEVELOP BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH AS THE ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN BOTTLED TO
THE NORTH DUE TO FLOW BLOCKING OVER CENTRAL CANADA. OVERALL...LOOK
FOR MILD CONDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WED-THUR...WITH COOLER TEMPS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF FRI-SAT BEFORE MILD WEATHER RETURNS TO ALL
AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY.
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER
CENTRAL SD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MAINLY FROM LEMMON TO WHITE RIVER
AND EAST.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS65 KCYS 090933
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
233 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN STAGNANT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA. 700 MB TEMPS RISING TO ABOVE ZERO
READINGS WILL YIELD MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S/50S EAST AND 30S/40S
WEST...WITH THE WARMEST DAY LOOKING TO BE WEDNESDAY. COULD BE
WARMER THOUGH DEPENDING ON HOW QUICK THE SNOWPACK MELTS WHICH WILL
HAVE A HAND IN MIXING THE WARMER TEMPS DOWN TO THE SFC. KEPT THE
FORECAST CLOSE TO THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE AS A DECENT SNOW PACK
IS STILL IN PLACE.

BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THIS PATTERN AS WELL. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PAC NW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
FLATTEN THE RIDGE A BIT AND WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TO
INCREASE THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
GRADIENT PROGS SUGGEST HIGH SUSTAINED WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT WINDS ALOFT ARE PROGGED TO BE 45 KTS OR LESS THROUGH
THIS TIME WHICH SUGGESTS THAT GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL. WILL
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SITUATION OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECAST
CYCLES TO SEE IF HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS ARE NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST AND ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE MAKING ITS APPROACH TO
THE REGION SATURDAY. MILD AND DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
THEN A COOL FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS LATE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. NOT MUCH
PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST BUT A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION SAT NIGHT. DRY
AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
THOUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE WINDY IN AT LEAST SOME AREAS WITH A
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT. A BIT WARMER FOR MONDAY UNDER NWLY FLOW
ALOFT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 233 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER NWLY FLOW ALOFT.
SOME MID LEVEL CIGS AFFECTING NEB PANHANDLE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. SOME GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES AROUND THE SE WY MTNS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 233 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM DUE TO THE
CURRENT SNOWPACK AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEK. BREEZY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 50S BY MIDWEEK ACROSS THE
PLAINS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...RJM




000
FXUS65 KRIW 090905
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
205 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS ARE BECOMING RATHER STARK. FOR EXAMPLE...HERE
IN OUR COZY PROTECTED WIND RIVER BASIN WE ARE SITTING AT 28DEGREES
HERE ATOP GRIFFEY HILL AT THE NWS LOCATION...WHILE IT IS 22
DEGREES AT THE NEARBY RIW ASOS SITE...AND ONLY 1 ABOVE RIGHT ALONG
THE LITTLE WIND RIVER 2 MILES SOUTH OF RIVERTON AT THE TIME OF
THIS WRITING. ABOVE THE INVERSION...BOTH CROWHEART AND DUBOIS HAVE
36 DEGREES WITH NW WINDS OF 29 GUST 37 MPH IN DUBOIS IN THE UPPER
WIND RIVER BASIN AS THE NW GRADIENT WIND ALONG THE FRONT OF THE
BUILDING RIDGE CONTINUES TO MIX OUT AREAS ABOVE THE INVERSIONS.
THESE TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL BE A PLAYER THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING. BY WEDNESDAY...700MB TEMPS WILL RISE TO 4C OVER
CENTRAL WY AS THE STRONG RIDGE TO THE WEST ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA. BY WEDNESDAY...WE WILL WITNESS NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE
50S AND EVEN SOME LOW 60S IN AREAS LIKE THE CODY FOOTHILLS AS WELL
AS JOHNSON COUNTY INCLUDING BYG. OTHER AREAS THAT MIX OUT SUCH AS
THE SOUTHERN WIND CORRIDOR FROM THE RED DESERT TO CPR WILL NOT GET
AS WARM AS THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF SNOW COVER TO MELT DOWN IN
THOSE AREAS SO 40S ARE MORE LIKELY IN THOSE AREAS WED. THE TRAPPED
BASINS AND VALLEYS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S. BY
WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN A BIT ALLOWING A COUPLE OF WEAK
VORT LOBES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE SFC GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE AS AN ASCT SFC LOW TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
MT AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS INCREASING THE SFC GRADIENT THAT WILL
PRECEDE A LEE SIDE SFC TROUGH. H7 WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS
WED. THIS WILL BE THE MECHANICS DRIVING THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WIND FROM THE RED DESERT TO CPR ON WEDNESDAY HELPING TO DRAW IN
THE WARMER AIR. IN ADDITION...THE CODY/CLARK AREA WILL EXPERIENCE
INCREASING WEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AS A MARGINAL TEMP GRADIENT
BETWEEN YNP AND THE CODY FTHLS DVLPS ALONG WITH A WEAK MTN WAVE
SIGNATURE. IN ADDITION...THE FROUDE NUMBER FOR 15Z WED IS FCST TO
BE A 1.OO. WESTERLY EXITING WINDS ON THE CROSS SECTION ARE
STRONGER THEN THE WINDS ENTERING THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL HANDLE THE
CLARK/CODY WINDS WITH AN SPS AS HIGH WIND POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
BORDERLINE AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE WED...A
MAINLY DRY BACKDOOR COOL FRONT WILL LOWER TEMPS ON
THURSDAY...EXCEPT WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE TEMPS IN AREAS STILL
TRAPPED WITHIN STRONG INVERSIONS. ONE SIDE NOTE...PATCHY LATE
NIGHT AND MORNING FOG WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS AND
BASINS AS WELL AS IN THE WIND RIVER BASIN TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH FAVORABLE SOUNDINGS INDICATING DRY AND MILD AIR
ATOP STRONG MOIST COLD AIR...ESPECIALLY ON TUE/WED MORNINGS. A FEW
SNOW FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NW MTNS AND IN THE BIG HORNS
BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COOL FRONT THU NT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MEAN LONGWAVE RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE THE FLOW WILL LIKELY FLATTEN. MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE. BOTH THE GFS AND
EURO SEEM RATHER STRONG FOR A SYSTEM ENTERING A STRONG RIDGE. THE
GEM IS FURTHER NORTH WITH JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF PCPN TO THE FAR
NORTH. THE GFS IS ALSO ON THE SLOW END WITH THE EURO ON THE FAST
END. POPS ARE LOW NOW FOR THE MTNS AND FAR NORTH SO NOT A BIG DEAL
BUT LEAN TOWARDS A WEAKER SYSTEM THAN THE GFS/EURO ARE SHOWING.
SOME INCREASE IN WIND PROBABLY WITH SOME INVERSIONS WEAKENING OR
BREAKING BUT LIMITED PCPN CHANCES AND MAINLY OVER THE MTNS/FAR
NORTH. AFTER THAT...AS THE EXPECTED FLOW FLATTENS...WE`LL SEE MORE
WIND IN THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS AND WIND CORRIDOR WITH MORE UPGLIDE
PCPN ACROSS THE WEST. TEMPS COULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO GET SOME MIXED
PCPN OR EVEN VALLEY RAIN BY THEN...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH WITH
TIME. INCREASED GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT WILL HELP MIX THE BASINS
AND VALLEYS ALSO.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

THERE IS A GOOD SHOT AT WIDESPREAD FOG/LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
09Z AND 14Z OVER THE FAR WESTERN VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE JAC
TERMINAL. IF IT DEVELOPS...FOG/LOW CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING DUE TO THE VERY STEEP SURFACE INVERSION...NOT
IMPROVING UNTIL EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL BASIN...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND
ONLY HAVE VCFG AT KRIW TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH
ONLY VARIABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WIND ARE EXPECTED IN THE DUBOIS AND CASPER AREAS...AS WELL
AS IN THE MOUNTAINS...CREATING MOUNTAIN TURBULENCE AND POCKETS OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. TONIGHT...FOG DEVELOPMENT IS AGAIN
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN VALLEYS...BUT WILL ONLY HAVE
VCFG AND SEE WHAT ENDS UP HAPPENING THIS MORNING. ALSO...TONIGHT
SOME STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CODY FOOTHILLS
WHICH WILL RESULT IN BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS OR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER REMAINS LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK...WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS AND
SNOW COVERING MANY SURFACES. WINDS...HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE BREEZY
SIDE TODAY ACROSS THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREA OF CENTRAL WYOMING.
WEDNESDAY...AREAS IN AND ADJACENT TO THE ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS COULD
SEE NEAR HIGH WIND CRITERIA. IT WILL BE FAIRLY WINDY FROM THE RED
DESERT TO CASPER WEDNESDAY AS WELL. OTHERWISE...MOST LATE MORNINGS
AND AFTERNOONS ACROSS WYOMING SHOULD SEE GOOD SMOKE DISPERSION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...PS
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 090903
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
203 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 157 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL STATES...WITH A
120 KT UPPER JET BETWEEN THE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING A FEW FLURRIES
ACROSS CENTRAL SD ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. WINDS ARE
LIGHT..AND TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL SD
AND THE NORTHERN HILLS. CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AND WEAK UPPER ENERGY PASSES OVER THE AREA. PROFILES
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL SD...SO HAVE ADDED MENTION IN GRIDS. HIGHS TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...TO THE
UPPER 40S FARTHER WEST.

WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WEAK SURFACE LOW
SLIDES INTO SD...AND WARM AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S...WARMEST ALONG THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS.
COOLER AIR BEGINS PUSHING INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
20S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 157 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CREATE AMPLIFIED
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MID LEVEL IMPULSES
PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA COOLING DOWN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MILD AND DRY NW FLOW WILL REDEVELOP BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH AS THE ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN BOTTLED TO
THE NORTH DUE TO FLOW BLOCKING OVER CENTRAL CANADA. OVERALL...LOOK
FOR MILD CONDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WED-THUR...WITH COOLER TEMPS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF FRI-SAT BEFORE MILD WEATHER RETURNS TO ALL
AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 157 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10



000
FXUS63 KUNR 090903
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
203 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 157 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL STATES...WITH A
120 KT UPPER JET BETWEEN THE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING A FEW FLURRIES
ACROSS CENTRAL SD ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. WINDS ARE
LIGHT..AND TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL SD
AND THE NORTHERN HILLS. CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AND WEAK UPPER ENERGY PASSES OVER THE AREA. PROFILES
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL SD...SO HAVE ADDED MENTION IN GRIDS. HIGHS TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...TO THE
UPPER 40S FARTHER WEST.

WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WEAK SURFACE LOW
SLIDES INTO SD...AND WARM AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S...WARMEST ALONG THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS.
COOLER AIR BEGINS PUSHING INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
20S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 157 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CREATE AMPLIFIED
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MID LEVEL IMPULSES
PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA COOLING DOWN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MILD AND DRY NW FLOW WILL REDEVELOP BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH AS THE ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN BOTTLED TO
THE NORTH DUE TO FLOW BLOCKING OVER CENTRAL CANADA. OVERALL...LOOK
FOR MILD CONDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WED-THUR...WITH COOLER TEMPS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF FRI-SAT BEFORE MILD WEATHER RETURNS TO ALL
AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 157 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10




000
FXUS63 KUNR 090903
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
203 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 157 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL STATES...WITH A
120 KT UPPER JET BETWEEN THE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING A FEW FLURRIES
ACROSS CENTRAL SD ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. WINDS ARE
LIGHT..AND TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL SD
AND THE NORTHERN HILLS. CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AND WEAK UPPER ENERGY PASSES OVER THE AREA. PROFILES
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL SD...SO HAVE ADDED MENTION IN GRIDS. HIGHS TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...TO THE
UPPER 40S FARTHER WEST.

WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WEAK SURFACE LOW
SLIDES INTO SD...AND WARM AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S...WARMEST ALONG THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS.
COOLER AIR BEGINS PUSHING INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
20S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 157 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CREATE AMPLIFIED
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MID LEVEL IMPULSES
PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA COOLING DOWN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MILD AND DRY NW FLOW WILL REDEVELOP BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH AS THE ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN BOTTLED TO
THE NORTH DUE TO FLOW BLOCKING OVER CENTRAL CANADA. OVERALL...LOOK
FOR MILD CONDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WED-THUR...WITH COOLER TEMPS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF FRI-SAT BEFORE MILD WEATHER RETURNS TO ALL
AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 157 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10




000
FXUS65 KRIW 090529
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1029 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

IMAGERY SHOWS AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROF PATTERN WEST TO E ACROSS THE
CONUS...WITH WY UNDER NW FLOW. SFC HAS HIGH P ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
INTO WRN WY WITH LOWERING P TO THE E SUPPORTING A MODEST P GRAD AND
SOME BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS OVR THE WIND CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE...ONLY
A FEW MID/UPR CLOUDS ACROSS THE FA.

RATHER STATIC PATTERN THRU THE SHORT TERM WITH MOSTLY DRY UPR LVL
RIDGING REMAINING IN CONTROL OF THE WRN CONUS AND THE FA REMAINING
UNDER STEEP NW FLOW. FEW TO SCATTERED AREAS OF MID/UPR CLOUD RING
THE OUTSIDE OF THE CWA WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD OVR THE INTERIOR.
HOWEVER...EVEN THESE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE THRU THE FCST
PERIOD. WITH DECENT DAYTIME WARMING MELTING SNOW...OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNINGS ACROSS THE SOME AREAS MAY ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG FORMATION IF
LOW UPR LVL FLOW QUIETS/LIFTS ENOUGH TO KEEP TURBULENCE ALOFT FROM
INFLUENCING THE SFC. BEST BESTS FOR PATCHY FOG WILL BE IN THE WRN
VALLEYS AND THE WIND RIVER BASIN...WITH SOMEWHAT LESSER CHANCES OVR
THE OTHER BASINS. BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREEN BASIN...AND THE
WIND CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED AS CRITICAL
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FOR HIGH WIND WILL NOT BE MET AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT WARMING SEASONAL HIGHS AND LOWS AND NO PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY A WARM RIDGE
WITH BASIN AND VALLEY INVERSIONS HOLDING IN MOST AREAS BUT EVEN
GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED IN THESE LOCATIONS. A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY BRINGING
CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WEST AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE ONLY POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL BE EARLY WEDNESDAY
WHEN GAP FLOW SETS UP ALONG THE ABSAROKAS...THERE COULD BE SOME 60
MPH WIND GUSTS NEAR CLARK AND WEST OF CODY...NOT SURE IT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING BUT IT WILL BE WATCHED
CLOSELY NONETHELESS. AS A LEE TROUGH DIPS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...THE
WIND WILL ALSO PICK UP BETWEEN THE RED DESERT AND CASPER. WHILE IT
WILL BE WINDY...IT WILL ALSO BE WARMER...WITH MILD AIR POSSIBLY
MIXING DOWN FOR RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
POSSIBLY 60 NEAR CASPER...CODY...CROWHEART AND BUFFALO WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SNOW ON THE GROUND AT CASPER
HOWEVER...THAT MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN AT OR BELOW 50 DEGREES.

A SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE AND DIVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE BETTER MIXING ACROSS THE LOWER CENTRAL
BASINS WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION IN THE
MID-LEVELS. IT WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION
HOWEVER IT COULD HAVE A POSITIVE AFFECT ON BASIN AND VALLEY
INVERSIONS...ALLOWING THEM TO ERODE A BIT...SO IT WILL TAKE A COLD
FRONT TO WARM UP THE VALLEYS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF NOTE MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THERE
IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SPLITTING
TROUGH BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT GIVEN ITS
CURRENT TRACK AND STRENGTH. IT WILL LIKELY JUST MUSTER SOME
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AND SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY WIND EAST OF THE DIVIDE. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
REBOUND ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

THERE IS A GOOD SHOT AT WIDESPREAD FOG/LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
09Z AND 14Z OVER THE FAR WESTERN VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE JAC
TERMINAL. IF IT DEVELOPS...FOG/LOW CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING DUE TO THE VERY STEEP SURFACE INVERSION...NOT
IMPROVING UNTIL EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL BASIN...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND
ONLY HAVE VCFG AT KRIW TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH
ONLY VARIABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WIND ARE EXPECTED IN THE DUBOIS...CASPER AREAS...PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN AS WELL AS IN THE
MOUNTAINS...CREATING MOUNTAIN TURBULENCE AND POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR. TUESDAY NIGHT...FOG DEVELOPMENT IS AGAIN
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN VALLEYS...BUT WILL ONLY HAVE
VCFG AND SEE WHAT ENDS UP HAPPENING TUESDAY MORNING. ALSO...TUESDAY
NIGHT SOME STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CODY
FOOTHILLS WHICH WILL RESULT IN BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS OR LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER REMAINS LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND SNOW COVERING MANY SURFACES.
WINDS...HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ACROSS THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREA OF CENTRAL WYOMING.
WEDNESDAY...AREAS IN AND ADJACENT TO THE ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS COULD
SEE NEAR HIGH WIND CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
OTHERWISE...MOST LATE MORNINGS AND AFTERNOONS ACROSS WYOMING SHOULD
SEE GOOD SMOKE DISPERSION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...ALLEN
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN




000
FXUS65 KRIW 090529
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1029 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

IMAGERY SHOWS AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROF PATTERN WEST TO E ACROSS THE
CONUS...WITH WY UNDER NW FLOW. SFC HAS HIGH P ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
INTO WRN WY WITH LOWERING P TO THE E SUPPORTING A MODEST P GRAD AND
SOME BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS OVR THE WIND CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE...ONLY
A FEW MID/UPR CLOUDS ACROSS THE FA.

RATHER STATIC PATTERN THRU THE SHORT TERM WITH MOSTLY DRY UPR LVL
RIDGING REMAINING IN CONTROL OF THE WRN CONUS AND THE FA REMAINING
UNDER STEEP NW FLOW. FEW TO SCATTERED AREAS OF MID/UPR CLOUD RING
THE OUTSIDE OF THE CWA WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD OVR THE INTERIOR.
HOWEVER...EVEN THESE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE THRU THE FCST
PERIOD. WITH DECENT DAYTIME WARMING MELTING SNOW...OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNINGS ACROSS THE SOME AREAS MAY ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG FORMATION IF
LOW UPR LVL FLOW QUIETS/LIFTS ENOUGH TO KEEP TURBULENCE ALOFT FROM
INFLUENCING THE SFC. BEST BESTS FOR PATCHY FOG WILL BE IN THE WRN
VALLEYS AND THE WIND RIVER BASIN...WITH SOMEWHAT LESSER CHANCES OVR
THE OTHER BASINS. BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREEN BASIN...AND THE
WIND CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED AS CRITICAL
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FOR HIGH WIND WILL NOT BE MET AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT WARMING SEASONAL HIGHS AND LOWS AND NO PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY A WARM RIDGE
WITH BASIN AND VALLEY INVERSIONS HOLDING IN MOST AREAS BUT EVEN
GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED IN THESE LOCATIONS. A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY BRINGING
CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WEST AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE ONLY POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL BE EARLY WEDNESDAY
WHEN GAP FLOW SETS UP ALONG THE ABSAROKAS...THERE COULD BE SOME 60
MPH WIND GUSTS NEAR CLARK AND WEST OF CODY...NOT SURE IT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING BUT IT WILL BE WATCHED
CLOSELY NONETHELESS. AS A LEE TROUGH DIPS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...THE
WIND WILL ALSO PICK UP BETWEEN THE RED DESERT AND CASPER. WHILE IT
WILL BE WINDY...IT WILL ALSO BE WARMER...WITH MILD AIR POSSIBLY
MIXING DOWN FOR RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
POSSIBLY 60 NEAR CASPER...CODY...CROWHEART AND BUFFALO WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SNOW ON THE GROUND AT CASPER
HOWEVER...THAT MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN AT OR BELOW 50 DEGREES.

A SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE AND DIVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE BETTER MIXING ACROSS THE LOWER CENTRAL
BASINS WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION IN THE
MID-LEVELS. IT WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION
HOWEVER IT COULD HAVE A POSITIVE AFFECT ON BASIN AND VALLEY
INVERSIONS...ALLOWING THEM TO ERODE A BIT...SO IT WILL TAKE A COLD
FRONT TO WARM UP THE VALLEYS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF NOTE MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THERE
IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SPLITTING
TROUGH BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT GIVEN ITS
CURRENT TRACK AND STRENGTH. IT WILL LIKELY JUST MUSTER SOME
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AND SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY WIND EAST OF THE DIVIDE. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
REBOUND ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

THERE IS A GOOD SHOT AT WIDESPREAD FOG/LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
09Z AND 14Z OVER THE FAR WESTERN VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE JAC
TERMINAL. IF IT DEVELOPS...FOG/LOW CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING DUE TO THE VERY STEEP SURFACE INVERSION...NOT
IMPROVING UNTIL EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL BASIN...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND
ONLY HAVE VCFG AT KRIW TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH
ONLY VARIABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WIND ARE EXPECTED IN THE DUBOIS...CASPER AREAS...PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN AS WELL AS IN THE
MOUNTAINS...CREATING MOUNTAIN TURBULENCE AND POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR. TUESDAY NIGHT...FOG DEVELOPMENT IS AGAIN
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN VALLEYS...BUT WILL ONLY HAVE
VCFG AND SEE WHAT ENDS UP HAPPENING TUESDAY MORNING. ALSO...TUESDAY
NIGHT SOME STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CODY
FOOTHILLS WHICH WILL RESULT IN BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS OR LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER REMAINS LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND SNOW COVERING MANY SURFACES.
WINDS...HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ACROSS THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREA OF CENTRAL WYOMING.
WEDNESDAY...AREAS IN AND ADJACENT TO THE ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS COULD
SEE NEAR HIGH WIND CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
OTHERWISE...MOST LATE MORNINGS AND AFTERNOONS ACROSS WYOMING SHOULD
SEE GOOD SMOKE DISPERSION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...ALLEN
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN



000
FXUS63 KUNR 090527
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1027 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

20Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND
RIDGE IN THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CONUS...RESPECTIVELY...WITH OUR
CWA IN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS ARE
QUITE BREEZY ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS...WITH MANY AREAS
STILL SEEING 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS WITH 40 MPH GUSTS. SHOULD SEE
WINDS SUBSIDE SOME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE CWA.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW APPROACHES THE REGION.
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE BLACK HILLS
REGION STARTING LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY...BUT LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A BIT DRIER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT ITS GENERALLY UNDER FIVE THOUSAND FEET
IN DEPTH...AND THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK DRY FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION TO FALL THROUGH. HAVE DECIDED TO DROP POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AND INSTEAD MENTION FLURRIES IN THE HILLS STARTING AFTER
06Z.

BY TUESDAY...A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTH
DAKOTA PLAINS. FORCING ALONG AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
LOOK WEAK...BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. P-TYPE COULD BE INTERESTING...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SATURATED CONDITIONS BETWEEN 0 TO -10 C AND DRIER AIR IN THE
DGZ...WHICH WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR FZDZ/-FZRA. HOWEVER...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE
DAY TUESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF
-RA/-SN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT MIGHT NEED TO
INCLUDE THE MENTION OF FZDZ-/-FZRA IN FUTURE FORECASTS IF MODEL
GUIDANCE COMES IN WITH COOLER SURFACE TEMPS.

THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY GRADUALLY PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY...AND NEARLY OUT OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DRIER
AND WARMER AIR WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

AMPLIFIED ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL PERSIST IN THE PERIOD. WESTERN NOAM
POSITIVE MID LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALY WILL REMAIN CENTERED JUST WEST
OF THE REGION...WITH ACTIVE NW FLOW TO THE EAST. MID/LEVEL
IMPULSES PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE FA WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WEST IN THE REGION WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA COOLING
DOWN FRIDAY-SAT. A STRONGER WAVE WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE RIDGE
SUN- MON...SUPPORTING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER AREA...ESP
NE WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. HOWEVER...MILD NW FLOW LOOKS
TO PERSIST BEHIND THIS WAVE AS ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN BOTTLED TO
THE NORTH PER FLOW BLOCKING OVER CENTRAL CANADA. OVERALL...LOOK
FOR MILD CONDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WED-THUR...WITH COOLER TEMPS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF FRI-SAT BEFORE MILD WEATHER RETURNS ALL
AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NORTHEAST WY/FAR WESTERN SD
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CIGS FROM 6-12KFT AGL. VFR CIGS TONIGHT
WILL BE MIXED WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...ALONG/EAST OF A LINE FROM K2WX TO KIEN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON



000
FXUS63 KUNR 090527
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1027 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

20Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND
RIDGE IN THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CONUS...RESPECTIVELY...WITH OUR
CWA IN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS ARE
QUITE BREEZY ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS...WITH MANY AREAS
STILL SEEING 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS WITH 40 MPH GUSTS. SHOULD SEE
WINDS SUBSIDE SOME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE CWA.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW APPROACHES THE REGION.
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE BLACK HILLS
REGION STARTING LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY...BUT LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A BIT DRIER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT ITS GENERALLY UNDER FIVE THOUSAND FEET
IN DEPTH...AND THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK DRY FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION TO FALL THROUGH. HAVE DECIDED TO DROP POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AND INSTEAD MENTION FLURRIES IN THE HILLS STARTING AFTER
06Z.

BY TUESDAY...A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTH
DAKOTA PLAINS. FORCING ALONG AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
LOOK WEAK...BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. P-TYPE COULD BE INTERESTING...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SATURATED CONDITIONS BETWEEN 0 TO -10 C AND DRIER AIR IN THE
DGZ...WHICH WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR FZDZ/-FZRA. HOWEVER...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE
DAY TUESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF
-RA/-SN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT MIGHT NEED TO
INCLUDE THE MENTION OF FZDZ-/-FZRA IN FUTURE FORECASTS IF MODEL
GUIDANCE COMES IN WITH COOLER SURFACE TEMPS.

THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY GRADUALLY PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY...AND NEARLY OUT OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DRIER
AND WARMER AIR WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

AMPLIFIED ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL PERSIST IN THE PERIOD. WESTERN NOAM
POSITIVE MID LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALY WILL REMAIN CENTERED JUST WEST
OF THE REGION...WITH ACTIVE NW FLOW TO THE EAST. MID/LEVEL
IMPULSES PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE FA WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WEST IN THE REGION WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA COOLING
DOWN FRIDAY-SAT. A STRONGER WAVE WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE RIDGE
SUN- MON...SUPPORTING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER AREA...ESP
NE WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. HOWEVER...MILD NW FLOW LOOKS
TO PERSIST BEHIND THIS WAVE AS ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN BOTTLED TO
THE NORTH PER FLOW BLOCKING OVER CENTRAL CANADA. OVERALL...LOOK
FOR MILD CONDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WED-THUR...WITH COOLER TEMPS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF FRI-SAT BEFORE MILD WEATHER RETURNS ALL
AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NORTHEAST WY/FAR WESTERN SD
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CIGS FROM 6-12KFT AGL. VFR CIGS TONIGHT
WILL BE MIXED WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...ALONG/EAST OF A LINE FROM K2WX TO KIEN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON



000
FXUS63 KUNR 090527
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1027 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

20Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND
RIDGE IN THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CONUS...RESPECTIVELY...WITH OUR
CWA IN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS ARE
QUITE BREEZY ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS...WITH MANY AREAS
STILL SEEING 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS WITH 40 MPH GUSTS. SHOULD SEE
WINDS SUBSIDE SOME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE CWA.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW APPROACHES THE REGION.
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE BLACK HILLS
REGION STARTING LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY...BUT LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A BIT DRIER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT ITS GENERALLY UNDER FIVE THOUSAND FEET
IN DEPTH...AND THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK DRY FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION TO FALL THROUGH. HAVE DECIDED TO DROP POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AND INSTEAD MENTION FLURRIES IN THE HILLS STARTING AFTER
06Z.

BY TUESDAY...A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTH
DAKOTA PLAINS. FORCING ALONG AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
LOOK WEAK...BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. P-TYPE COULD BE INTERESTING...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SATURATED CONDITIONS BETWEEN 0 TO -10 C AND DRIER AIR IN THE
DGZ...WHICH WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR FZDZ/-FZRA. HOWEVER...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE
DAY TUESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF
-RA/-SN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT MIGHT NEED TO
INCLUDE THE MENTION OF FZDZ-/-FZRA IN FUTURE FORECASTS IF MODEL
GUIDANCE COMES IN WITH COOLER SURFACE TEMPS.

THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY GRADUALLY PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY...AND NEARLY OUT OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DRIER
AND WARMER AIR WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

AMPLIFIED ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL PERSIST IN THE PERIOD. WESTERN NOAM
POSITIVE MID LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALY WILL REMAIN CENTERED JUST WEST
OF THE REGION...WITH ACTIVE NW FLOW TO THE EAST. MID/LEVEL
IMPULSES PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE FA WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WEST IN THE REGION WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA COOLING
DOWN FRIDAY-SAT. A STRONGER WAVE WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE RIDGE
SUN- MON...SUPPORTING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER AREA...ESP
NE WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. HOWEVER...MILD NW FLOW LOOKS
TO PERSIST BEHIND THIS WAVE AS ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN BOTTLED TO
THE NORTH PER FLOW BLOCKING OVER CENTRAL CANADA. OVERALL...LOOK
FOR MILD CONDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WED-THUR...WITH COOLER TEMPS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF FRI-SAT BEFORE MILD WEATHER RETURNS ALL
AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NORTHEAST WY/FAR WESTERN SD
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CIGS FROM 6-12KFT AGL. VFR CIGS TONIGHT
WILL BE MIXED WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...ALONG/EAST OF A LINE FROM K2WX TO KIEN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON



000
FXUS63 KUNR 090527
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1027 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

20Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND
RIDGE IN THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CONUS...RESPECTIVELY...WITH OUR
CWA IN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS ARE
QUITE BREEZY ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS...WITH MANY AREAS
STILL SEEING 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS WITH 40 MPH GUSTS. SHOULD SEE
WINDS SUBSIDE SOME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE CWA.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW APPROACHES THE REGION.
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE BLACK HILLS
REGION STARTING LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY...BUT LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A BIT DRIER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT ITS GENERALLY UNDER FIVE THOUSAND FEET
IN DEPTH...AND THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK DRY FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION TO FALL THROUGH. HAVE DECIDED TO DROP POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AND INSTEAD MENTION FLURRIES IN THE HILLS STARTING AFTER
06Z.

BY TUESDAY...A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTH
DAKOTA PLAINS. FORCING ALONG AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
LOOK WEAK...BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. P-TYPE COULD BE INTERESTING...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SATURATED CONDITIONS BETWEEN 0 TO -10 C AND DRIER AIR IN THE
DGZ...WHICH WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR FZDZ/-FZRA. HOWEVER...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE
DAY TUESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF
-RA/-SN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT MIGHT NEED TO
INCLUDE THE MENTION OF FZDZ-/-FZRA IN FUTURE FORECASTS IF MODEL
GUIDANCE COMES IN WITH COOLER SURFACE TEMPS.

THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY GRADUALLY PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY...AND NEARLY OUT OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DRIER
AND WARMER AIR WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

AMPLIFIED ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL PERSIST IN THE PERIOD. WESTERN NOAM
POSITIVE MID LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALY WILL REMAIN CENTERED JUST WEST
OF THE REGION...WITH ACTIVE NW FLOW TO THE EAST. MID/LEVEL
IMPULSES PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE FA WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WEST IN THE REGION WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA COOLING
DOWN FRIDAY-SAT. A STRONGER WAVE WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE RIDGE
SUN- MON...SUPPORTING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER AREA...ESP
NE WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. HOWEVER...MILD NW FLOW LOOKS
TO PERSIST BEHIND THIS WAVE AS ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN BOTTLED TO
THE NORTH PER FLOW BLOCKING OVER CENTRAL CANADA. OVERALL...LOOK
FOR MILD CONDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WED-THUR...WITH COOLER TEMPS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF FRI-SAT BEFORE MILD WEATHER RETURNS ALL
AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NORTHEAST WY/FAR WESTERN SD
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CIGS FROM 6-12KFT AGL. VFR CIGS TONIGHT
WILL BE MIXED WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...ALONG/EAST OF A LINE FROM K2WX TO KIEN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON



000
FXUS65 KCYS 090510
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1010 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

PRETTY QUIET THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPS AND
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS.  THERE IS ENOUGH LLVL MIXING
COMBINED WITH WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC OF 30-40 KTS TO PRODUCE BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTN.  THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE WITH VEDAUWOO
AND PUMPKIN VINE GUSTING TO AROUND 45 MPH.  NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO
GET MUCH STRONGER THAN THIS WITH WINDS ALOFT NOT CHANGING MUCH
THROUGH THE EVENING.  TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH WED WITH
700 MB TEMPS RISING FROM -4C THIS AFTN THROUGH 2C ON WED.  THIS
MEANS THAT HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S TO THE EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE.

500 MB RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN LOCATED NEAR THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE CWA. IT WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAY.  700MB WIND DO DECREASE AROUND 10 KTS ON TUES AND
THEN FURTHER ON WED...MEANING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT WEAKER. NOT
EXPECTING ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS THE 850 MB
CAG-CPR GRADIENT STAYS BELOW 50 METERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER MUCH
OF THE WESTERN CONUS. NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE LIKELY PROMOTING A
CONTINUED STRETCH OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. BOTH THE GFS/ECM SHOW
A FAST-MOVING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA ON SAT OR
SUN...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER WITH TIMING WITH THE ECMWF SUGGESTING A
FROPA AROUND 06Z SUN AND THE GFS SUGGESTING CLOSER TO 00Z MON. THIS
WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE WITH TEMPERATURES AND WIND. DID NOT MAKE
MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...BUT WE MAY HAVE A MARGINAL HIGH WIND
EVENT IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE. LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY THAT SYSTEM...BUT WILL LEAVE
THE FORECAST DRY GIVEN TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY WARM WITH 700 HPA TEMPS IN THE 0 TO +5 DEG C RANGE THRU MOST
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1006 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
WEST WILL KEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK DUE TO A
SURFACE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT. BREEZY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...ZF




000
FXUS63 KUNR 090026
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
526 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

20Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND
RIDGE IN THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CONUS...RESPECTIVELY...WITH OUR
CWA IN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS ARE
QUITE BREEZY ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS...WITH MANY AREAS
STILL SEEING 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS WITH 40 MPH GUSTS. SHOULD SEE
WINDS SUBSIDE SOME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE CWA.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW APPROACHES THE REGION.
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE BLACK HILLS
REGION STARTING LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY...BUT LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A BIT DRIER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT ITS GENERALLY UNDER FIVE THOUSAND FEET
IN DEPTH...AND THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK DRY FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION TO FALL THROUGH. HAVE DECIDED TO DROP POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AND INSTEAD MENTION FLURRIES IN THE HILLS STARTING AFTER
06Z.

BY TUESDAY...A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTH
DAKOTA PLAINS. FORCING ALONG AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
LOOK WEAK...BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. P-TYPE COULD BE INTERESTING...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SATURATED CONDITIONS BETWEEN 0 TO -10 C AND DRIER AIR IN THE
DGZ...WHICH WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR FZDZ/-FZRA. HOWEVER...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE
DAY TUESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF
-RA/-SN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT MIGHT NEED TO
INCLUDE THE MENTION OF FZDZ-/-FZRA IN FUTURE FORECASTS IF MODEL
GUIDANCE COMES IN WITH COOLER SURFACE TEMPS.

THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY GRADUALLY PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY...AND NEARLY OUT OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DRIER
AND WARMER AIR WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

AMPLIFIED ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL PERSIST IN THE PERIOD. WESTERN NOAM
POSITIVE MID LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALY WILL REMAIN CENTERED JUST WEST
OF THE REGION...WITH ACTIVE NW FLOW TO THE EAST. MID/LEVEL
IMPULSES PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE FA WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WEST IN THE REGION WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA COOLING
DOWN FRIDAY-SAT. A STRONGER WAVE WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE RIDGE
SUN- MON...SUPPORTING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER AREA...ESP
NE WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. HOWEVER...MILD NW FLOW LOOKS
TO PERSIST BEHIND THIS WAVE AS ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN BOTTLED TO
THE NORTH PER FLOW BLOCKING OVER CENTRAL CANADA. OVERALL...LOOK
FOR MILD CONDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WED-THUR...WITH COOLER TEMPS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF FRI-SAT BEFORE MILD WEATHER RETURNS ALL
AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SOME MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER
TUESDAY...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR IN THE WEST.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 090026
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
526 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

20Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND
RIDGE IN THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CONUS...RESPECTIVELY...WITH OUR
CWA IN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS ARE
QUITE BREEZY ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS...WITH MANY AREAS
STILL SEEING 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS WITH 40 MPH GUSTS. SHOULD SEE
WINDS SUBSIDE SOME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE CWA.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW APPROACHES THE REGION.
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE BLACK HILLS
REGION STARTING LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY...BUT LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A BIT DRIER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT ITS GENERALLY UNDER FIVE THOUSAND FEET
IN DEPTH...AND THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK DRY FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION TO FALL THROUGH. HAVE DECIDED TO DROP POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AND INSTEAD MENTION FLURRIES IN THE HILLS STARTING AFTER
06Z.

BY TUESDAY...A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTH
DAKOTA PLAINS. FORCING ALONG AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
LOOK WEAK...BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. P-TYPE COULD BE INTERESTING...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SATURATED CONDITIONS BETWEEN 0 TO -10 C AND DRIER AIR IN THE
DGZ...WHICH WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR FZDZ/-FZRA. HOWEVER...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE
DAY TUESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF
-RA/-SN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT MIGHT NEED TO
INCLUDE THE MENTION OF FZDZ-/-FZRA IN FUTURE FORECASTS IF MODEL
GUIDANCE COMES IN WITH COOLER SURFACE TEMPS.

THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY GRADUALLY PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY...AND NEARLY OUT OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DRIER
AND WARMER AIR WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

AMPLIFIED ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL PERSIST IN THE PERIOD. WESTERN NOAM
POSITIVE MID LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALY WILL REMAIN CENTERED JUST WEST
OF THE REGION...WITH ACTIVE NW FLOW TO THE EAST. MID/LEVEL
IMPULSES PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE FA WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WEST IN THE REGION WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA COOLING
DOWN FRIDAY-SAT. A STRONGER WAVE WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE RIDGE
SUN- MON...SUPPORTING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER AREA...ESP
NE WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. HOWEVER...MILD NW FLOW LOOKS
TO PERSIST BEHIND THIS WAVE AS ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN BOTTLED TO
THE NORTH PER FLOW BLOCKING OVER CENTRAL CANADA. OVERALL...LOOK
FOR MILD CONDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WED-THUR...WITH COOLER TEMPS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF FRI-SAT BEFORE MILD WEATHER RETURNS ALL
AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SOME MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER
TUESDAY...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR IN THE WEST.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON



000
FXUS63 KUNR 090026
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
526 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

20Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND
RIDGE IN THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CONUS...RESPECTIVELY...WITH OUR
CWA IN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS ARE
QUITE BREEZY ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS...WITH MANY AREAS
STILL SEEING 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS WITH 40 MPH GUSTS. SHOULD SEE
WINDS SUBSIDE SOME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE CWA.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW APPROACHES THE REGION.
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE BLACK HILLS
REGION STARTING LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY...BUT LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A BIT DRIER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT ITS GENERALLY UNDER FIVE THOUSAND FEET
IN DEPTH...AND THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK DRY FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION TO FALL THROUGH. HAVE DECIDED TO DROP POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AND INSTEAD MENTION FLURRIES IN THE HILLS STARTING AFTER
06Z.

BY TUESDAY...A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTH
DAKOTA PLAINS. FORCING ALONG AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
LOOK WEAK...BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. P-TYPE COULD BE INTERESTING...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SATURATED CONDITIONS BETWEEN 0 TO -10 C AND DRIER AIR IN THE
DGZ...WHICH WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR FZDZ/-FZRA. HOWEVER...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE
DAY TUESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF
-RA/-SN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT MIGHT NEED TO
INCLUDE THE MENTION OF FZDZ-/-FZRA IN FUTURE FORECASTS IF MODEL
GUIDANCE COMES IN WITH COOLER SURFACE TEMPS.

THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY GRADUALLY PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY...AND NEARLY OUT OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DRIER
AND WARMER AIR WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

AMPLIFIED ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL PERSIST IN THE PERIOD. WESTERN NOAM
POSITIVE MID LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALY WILL REMAIN CENTERED JUST WEST
OF THE REGION...WITH ACTIVE NW FLOW TO THE EAST. MID/LEVEL
IMPULSES PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE FA WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WEST IN THE REGION WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA COOLING
DOWN FRIDAY-SAT. A STRONGER WAVE WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE RIDGE
SUN- MON...SUPPORTING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER AREA...ESP
NE WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. HOWEVER...MILD NW FLOW LOOKS
TO PERSIST BEHIND THIS WAVE AS ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN BOTTLED TO
THE NORTH PER FLOW BLOCKING OVER CENTRAL CANADA. OVERALL...LOOK
FOR MILD CONDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WED-THUR...WITH COOLER TEMPS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF FRI-SAT BEFORE MILD WEATHER RETURNS ALL
AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SOME MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER
TUESDAY...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR IN THE WEST.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS65 KCYS 082326
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
426 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

PRETTY QUIET THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPS AND
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS.  THERE IS ENOUGH LLVL MIXING
COMBINED WITH WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC OF 30-40 KTS TO PRODUCE BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTN.  THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE WITH VEDAUWOO
AND PUMPKIN VINE GUSTING TO AROUND 45 MPH.  NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO
GET MUCH STRONGER THAN THIS WITH WINDS ALOFT NOT CHANGING MUCH
THROUGH THE EVENING.  TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH WED WITH
700 MB TEMPS RISING FROM -4C THIS AFTN THROUGH 2C ON WED.  THIS
MEANS THAT HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S TO THE EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE.

500 MB RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN LOCATED NEAR THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE CWA. IT WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAY.  700MB WIND DO DECREASE AROUND 10 KTS ON TUES AND
THEN FURTHER ON WED...MEANING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT WEAKER. NOT
EXPECTING ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS THE 850 MB
CAG-CPR GRADIENT STAYS BELOW 50 METERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER MUCH
OF THE WESTERN CONUS. NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE LIKELY PROMOTING A
CONTINUED STRETCH OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. BOTH THE GFS/ECM SHOW
A FAST-MOVING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA ON SAT OR
SUN...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER WITH TIMING WITH THE ECMWF SUGGESTING A
FROPA AROUND 06Z SUN AND THE GFS SUGGESTING CLOSER TO 00Z MON. THIS
WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE WITH TEMPERATURES AND WIND. DID NOT MAKE
MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...BUT WE MAY HAVE A MARGINAL HIGH WIND
EVENT IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE. LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY THAT SYSTEM...BUT WILL LEAVE
THE FORECAST DRY GIVEN TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY WARM WITH 700 HPA TEMPS IN THE 0 TO +5 DEG C RANGE THRU MOST
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 424 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH GENERALLY
SCT TO BKN COVERAGE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD. GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY
TO RETURN TO PARTS OF THE AREA ON TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK DUE TO A
SURFACE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT. BREEZY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...ZF




000
FXUS65 KCYS 082326
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
426 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

PRETTY QUIET THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPS AND
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS.  THERE IS ENOUGH LLVL MIXING
COMBINED WITH WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC OF 30-40 KTS TO PRODUCE BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTN.  THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE WITH VEDAUWOO
AND PUMPKIN VINE GUSTING TO AROUND 45 MPH.  NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO
GET MUCH STRONGER THAN THIS WITH WINDS ALOFT NOT CHANGING MUCH
THROUGH THE EVENING.  TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH WED WITH
700 MB TEMPS RISING FROM -4C THIS AFTN THROUGH 2C ON WED.  THIS
MEANS THAT HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S TO THE EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE.

500 MB RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN LOCATED NEAR THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE CWA. IT WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAY.  700MB WIND DO DECREASE AROUND 10 KTS ON TUES AND
THEN FURTHER ON WED...MEANING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT WEAKER. NOT
EXPECTING ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS THE 850 MB
CAG-CPR GRADIENT STAYS BELOW 50 METERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER MUCH
OF THE WESTERN CONUS. NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE LIKELY PROMOTING A
CONTINUED STRETCH OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. BOTH THE GFS/ECM SHOW
A FAST-MOVING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA ON SAT OR
SUN...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER WITH TIMING WITH THE ECMWF SUGGESTING A
FROPA AROUND 06Z SUN AND THE GFS SUGGESTING CLOSER TO 00Z MON. THIS
WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE WITH TEMPERATURES AND WIND. DID NOT MAKE
MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...BUT WE MAY HAVE A MARGINAL HIGH WIND
EVENT IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE. LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY THAT SYSTEM...BUT WILL LEAVE
THE FORECAST DRY GIVEN TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY WARM WITH 700 HPA TEMPS IN THE 0 TO +5 DEG C RANGE THRU MOST
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 424 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH GENERALLY
SCT TO BKN COVERAGE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD. GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY
TO RETURN TO PARTS OF THE AREA ON TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK DUE TO A
SURFACE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT. BREEZY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...ZF




000
FXUS65 KCYS 082215
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
315 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

PRETTY QUIET THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPS AND
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS.  THERE IS ENOUGH LLVL MIXING
COMBINED WITH WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC OF 30-40 KTS TO PRODUCE BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTN.  THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE WITH VEDAUWOO
AND PUMPKIN VINE GUSTING TO AROUND 45 MPH.  NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO
GET MUCH STRONGER THAN THIS WITH WINDS ALOFT NOT CHANGING MUCH
THROUGH THE EVENING.  TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH WED WITH
700 MB TEMPS RISING FROM -4C THIS AFTN THROUGH 2C ON WED.  THIS
MEANS THAT HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S TO THE EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE.

500 MB RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN LOCATED NEAR THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE CWA. IT WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAY.  700MB WIND DO DECREASE AROUND 10 KTS ON TUES AND
THEN FURTHER ON WED...MEANING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT WEAKER. NOT
EXPECTING ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS THE 850 MB
CAG-CPR GRADIENT STAYS BELOW 50 METERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER MUCH
OF THE WESTERN CONUS. NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE LIKELY PROMOTING A
CONTINUED STRETCH OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. BOTH THE GFS/ECM SHOW
A FAST-MOVING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA ON SAT OR
SUN...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER WITH TIMING WITH THE ECMWF SUGGESTING A
FROPA AROUND 06Z SUN AND THE GFS SUGGESTING CLOSER TO 00Z MON. THIS
WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE WITH TEMPERATURES AND WIND. DID NOT MAKE
MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...BUT WE MAY HAVE A MARGINAL HIGH WIND
EVENT IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE. LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY THAT SYSTEM...BUT WILL LEAVE
THE FORECAST DRY GIVEN TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY WARM WITH 700 HPA TEMPS IN THE 0 TO +5 DEG C RANGE THRU MOST
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH GENERALLY
SCT TO BKN COVERAGE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYO
TERMINALS WHERE A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK DUE TO A
SURFACE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT. BREEZY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...ZF




000
FXUS65 KCYS 082215
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
315 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

PRETTY QUIET THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPS AND
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS.  THERE IS ENOUGH LLVL MIXING
COMBINED WITH WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC OF 30-40 KTS TO PRODUCE BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTN.  THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE WITH VEDAUWOO
AND PUMPKIN VINE GUSTING TO AROUND 45 MPH.  NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO
GET MUCH STRONGER THAN THIS WITH WINDS ALOFT NOT CHANGING MUCH
THROUGH THE EVENING.  TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH WED WITH
700 MB TEMPS RISING FROM -4C THIS AFTN THROUGH 2C ON WED.  THIS
MEANS THAT HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S TO THE EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE.

500 MB RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN LOCATED NEAR THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE CWA. IT WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAY.  700MB WIND DO DECREASE AROUND 10 KTS ON TUES AND
THEN FURTHER ON WED...MEANING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT WEAKER. NOT
EXPECTING ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS THE 850 MB
CAG-CPR GRADIENT STAYS BELOW 50 METERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER MUCH
OF THE WESTERN CONUS. NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE LIKELY PROMOTING A
CONTINUED STRETCH OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. BOTH THE GFS/ECM SHOW
A FAST-MOVING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA ON SAT OR
SUN...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER WITH TIMING WITH THE ECMWF SUGGESTING A
FROPA AROUND 06Z SUN AND THE GFS SUGGESTING CLOSER TO 00Z MON. THIS
WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE WITH TEMPERATURES AND WIND. DID NOT MAKE
MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...BUT WE MAY HAVE A MARGINAL HIGH WIND
EVENT IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE. LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY THAT SYSTEM...BUT WILL LEAVE
THE FORECAST DRY GIVEN TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY WARM WITH 700 HPA TEMPS IN THE 0 TO +5 DEG C RANGE THRU MOST
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH GENERALLY
SCT TO BKN COVERAGE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYO
TERMINALS WHERE A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK DUE TO A
SURFACE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT. BREEZY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...ZF




000
FXUS65 KCYS 082215
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
315 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

PRETTY QUIET THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPS AND
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS.  THERE IS ENOUGH LLVL MIXING
COMBINED WITH WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC OF 30-40 KTS TO PRODUCE BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTN.  THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE WITH VEDAUWOO
AND PUMPKIN VINE GUSTING TO AROUND 45 MPH.  NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO
GET MUCH STRONGER THAN THIS WITH WINDS ALOFT NOT CHANGING MUCH
THROUGH THE EVENING.  TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH WED WITH
700 MB TEMPS RISING FROM -4C THIS AFTN THROUGH 2C ON WED.  THIS
MEANS THAT HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S TO THE EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE.

500 MB RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN LOCATED NEAR THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE CWA. IT WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAY.  700MB WIND DO DECREASE AROUND 10 KTS ON TUES AND
THEN FURTHER ON WED...MEANING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT WEAKER. NOT
EXPECTING ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS THE 850 MB
CAG-CPR GRADIENT STAYS BELOW 50 METERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER MUCH
OF THE WESTERN CONUS. NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE LIKELY PROMOTING A
CONTINUED STRETCH OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. BOTH THE GFS/ECM SHOW
A FAST-MOVING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA ON SAT OR
SUN...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER WITH TIMING WITH THE ECMWF SUGGESTING A
FROPA AROUND 06Z SUN AND THE GFS SUGGESTING CLOSER TO 00Z MON. THIS
WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE WITH TEMPERATURES AND WIND. DID NOT MAKE
MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...BUT WE MAY HAVE A MARGINAL HIGH WIND
EVENT IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE. LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY THAT SYSTEM...BUT WILL LEAVE
THE FORECAST DRY GIVEN TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY WARM WITH 700 HPA TEMPS IN THE 0 TO +5 DEG C RANGE THRU MOST
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH GENERALLY
SCT TO BKN COVERAGE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYO
TERMINALS WHERE A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK DUE TO A
SURFACE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT. BREEZY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...ZF



000
FXUS63 KUNR 082130
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
230 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

20Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND
RIDGE IN THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CONUS...RESPECTIVELY...WITH OUR
CWA IN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS ARE
QUITE BREEZY ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS...WITH MANY AREAS
STILL SEEING 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS WITH 40 MPH GUSTS. SHOULD SEE
WINDS SUBSIDE SOME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE CWA.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW APPROACHES THE REGION.
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE BLACK HILLS
REGION STARTING LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY...BUT LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A BIT DRIER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT ITS GENERALLY UNDER FIVE THOUSAND FEET
IN DEPTH...AND THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK DRY FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION TO FALL THROUGH. HAVE DECIDED TO DROP POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AND INSTEAD MENTION FLURRIES IN THE HILLS STARTING AFTER
06Z.

BY TUESDAY...A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTH
DAKOTA PLAINS. FORCING ALONG AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
LOOK WEAK...BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. P-TYPE COULD BE INTERESTING...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SATURATED CONDITIONS BETWEEN 0 TO -10 C AND DRIER AIR IN THE
DGZ...WHICH WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR FZDZ/-FZRA. HOWEVER...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE
DAY TUESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF
-RA/-SN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT MIGHT NEED TO
INCLUDE THE MENTION OF FZDZ-/-FZRA IN FUTURE FORECASTS IF MODEL
GUIDANCE COMES IN WITH COOLER SURFACE TEMPS.

THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY GRADUALLY PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY...AND NEARLY OUT OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DRIER
AND WARMER AIR WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

AMPLIFIED ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL PERSIST IN THE PERIOD. WESTERN NOAM
POSITIVE MID LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALY WILL REMAIN CENTERED JUST WEST
OF THE REGION...WITH ACTIVE NW FLOW TO THE EAST. MID/LEVEL
IMPULSES PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE FA WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WEST IN THE REGION WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA COOLING
DOWN FRIDAY-SAT. A STRONGER WAVE WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE RIDGE
SUN- MON...SUPPORTING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER AREA...ESP
NE WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. HOWEVER...MILD NW FLOW LOOKS
TO PERSIST BEHIND THIS WAVE AS ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN BOTTLED TO
THE NORTH PER FLOW BLOCKING OVER CENTRAL CANADA. OVERALL...LOOK
FOR MILD CONDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WED-THUR...WITH COOLER TEMPS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF FRI-SAT BEFORE MILD WEATHER RETURNS ALL
AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY NW WINDS UP TO
35KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...PRIMARILY ON THE SD PLAINS. SOME
WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED ON THE WY PLAINS THIS EVENING AS STRONG
FLOW REMAINS ABOVE THE SFC.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS65 KRIW 082106
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
206 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

IMAGERY SHOWS AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROF PATTERN WEST TO E ACROSS THE
CONUS...WITH WY UNDER NW FLOW. SFC HAS HIGH P ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
INTO WRN WY WITH LOWERING P TO THE E SUPPORTING A MODEST P GRAD AND
SOME BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS OVR THE WIND CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE...ONLY
A FEW MID/UPR CLOUDS ACROSS THE FA.

RATHER STATIC PATTERN THRU THE SHORT TERM WITH MOSTLY DRY UPR LVL
RIDGING REMAINING IN CONTROL OF THE WRN CONUS AND THE FA REMAINING
UNDER STEEP NW FLOW. FEW TO SCATTERED AREAS OF MID/UPR CLOUD RING
THE OUTSIDE OF THE CWA WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD OVR THE INTERIOR.
HOWEVER...EVEN THESE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE THRU THE FCST
PERIOD. WITH DECENT DAYTIME WARMING MELTING SNOW...OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNINGS ACROSS THE SOME AREAS MAY ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG FORMATION IF
LOW UPR LVL FLOW QUIETS/LIFTS ENOUGH TO KEEP TURBULENCE ALOFT FROM
INFLUENCING THE SFC. BEST BESTS FOR PATCHY FOG WILL BE IN THE WRN
VALLEYS AND THE WIND RIVER BASIN...WITH SOMEWHAT LESSER CHANCES OVR
THE OTHER BASINS. BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREEN BASIN...AND THE
WIND CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED AS CRITICAL
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FOR HIGH WIND WILL NOT BE MET AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT WARMING SEASONAL HIGHS AND LOWS AND NO PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY A WARM RIDGE
WITH BASIN AND VALLEY INVERSIONS HOLDING IN MOST AREAS BUT EVEN
GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED IN THESE LOCATIONS. A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY BRINGING
CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WEST AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE ONLY POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL BE EARLY WEDNESDAY
WHEN GAP FLOW SETS UP ALONG THE ABSAROKAS...THERE COULD BE SOME 60
MPH WIND GUSTS NEAR CLARK AND WEST OF CODY...NOT SURE IT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING BUT IT WILL BE WATCHED
CLOSELY NONETHELESS. AS A LEE TROUGH DIPS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...THE
WIND WILL ALSO PICK UP BETWEEN THE RED DESERT AND CASPER. WHILE IT
WILL BE WINDY...IT WILL ALSO BE WARMER...WITH MILD AIR POSSIBLY
MIXING DOWN FOR RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
POSSIBLY 60 NEAR CASPER...CODY...CROWHEART AND BUFFALO WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SNOW ON THE GROUND AT CASPER
HOWEVER...THAT MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN AT OR BELOW 50 DEGREES.

A SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE AND DIVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE BETTER MIXING ACROSS THE LOWER CENTRAL
BASINS WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION IN THE
MID-LEVELS. IT WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION
HOWEVER IT COULD HAVE A POSITIVE AFFECT ON BASIN AND VALLEY
INVERSIONS...ALLOWING THEM TO ERODE A BIT...SO IT WILL TAKE A COLD
FRONT TO WARM UP THE VALLEYS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF NOTE MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THERE
IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SPLITTING
TROUGH BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT GIVEN ITS
CURRENT TRACK AND STRENGTH. IT WILL LIKELY JUST MUSTER SOME
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AND SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY WIND EAST OF THE DIVIDE. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
REBOUND ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN
CONCERN THIS EVENING WILL BE MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR NEAR
MOUNTAINS AND MOUNTAIN TURBULENCE DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
SOME PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY OVER
THE FAR WESTERN VALLEYS...AND PERHAPS OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN WIND
RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING. HAVE INSERTED VCFG INTO THE
KJAC AND KRIW TERMINAL SITES FOR LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP IT OUT
OF THE UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN DUE TO THE EXPECTED CONTINUATION OF
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS IN THAT AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER REMAINS LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND SNOW COVERING MANY SURFACES.
WINDS...HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ACROSS THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREA OF CENTRAL WYOMING.
WEDNESDAY...AREAS IN AND ADJACENT TO THE ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS COULD
SEE NEAR HIGH WIND CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
OTHERWISE...MOST LATE MORNINGS AND AFTERNOONS ACROSS WYOMING SHOULD
SEE GOOD SMOKE DISPERSION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...ALLEN
AVIATION...BRAUN
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 081818
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1118 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER BREEZY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AS THE 700 MB GRADIENT REMAINS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MTRS
WITH THE JET STREAM OVERHEAD. EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS TO BE
OVER THE NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS INCLUDING ARLINGTON/ELK
MOUNTAIN AND THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE WHERE 40 TO 50 MPH GUSTS
ARE LIKELY. GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH OR HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE...
INCLUDING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

FOR TODAY...NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH CHANGE IN WINDS FROM CURRENT
CONDITIONS...WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THE UPWARD TREND AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST AND H7 TEMPS OVERHEAD
WARM TO BETWEEN -4 TO -6. THINK A FEW HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE PLAINS
WILL BREAK THE 40 DEGREE MARK...ALTHOUGH SNOW COVER WILL OBVIOUSLY
KEEP TEMPS FROM SPIKING TOO HIGH. OVERALL...WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER
30S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS PEAKING IN THE LOW 40S ARE A GOOD BET.

TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE FURTHER AS READINGS AT
H7 RISE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO BY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOW
TO MID 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY AS A RESULT. SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT PROGS THROUGH THIS TIME WILL REMAIN ROUGHLY IN
THE 30 MTR RANGE...THUS BREEZY WINDS WILL PERSIST AT LEAST IN THE
WIND PRONE AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE MOISTURE MOVING
OVERHEAD. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR STRATUS AND PERHAPS SOME
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FOG IN THE HIGH VALLEYS OUT WEST OVERNIGHT
THOUGH AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE PROGS ARE HIGH WHILE WINDS
WEAKEN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

THE PATTERN ACROSS THE COUNTRY WILL FEATURE A GENERAL LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING OVER THE WEST. THE CWA
WILL RESIDE UNDER NWLY FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A
SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH THE SHORTWAVE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND COULD BRING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SO MAY EVENTUALLY
NEED SOME POPS FOR THAT TIME. OTHERWISE MILD TEMPS EXPECTED
OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. A
PRETTY GOOD SURGE OF COLD AIR LOOKS TO DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES FRIDAY BUT THE BULK OF THE COLDER AIR WILL PASS EAST OF
THE CWA...WITH JUST THE WESTERN PERIPHERY BACKING UP AGAINST THE
MTNS FRIDAY THEN RETREATING BACK EAST SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH GENERALLY
SCT TO BKN COVERAGE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYO
TERMINALS WHERE A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY IN THE
WEEK DUE TO A SURFACE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...BUT MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT. BREEZY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DISTRICT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...RJM



000
FXUS65 KCYS 081818
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1118 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER BREEZY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AS THE 700 MB GRADIENT REMAINS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MTRS
WITH THE JET STREAM OVERHEAD. EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS TO BE
OVER THE NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS INCLUDING ARLINGTON/ELK
MOUNTAIN AND THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE WHERE 40 TO 50 MPH GUSTS
ARE LIKELY. GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH OR HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE...
INCLUDING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

FOR TODAY...NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH CHANGE IN WINDS FROM CURRENT
CONDITIONS...WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THE UPWARD TREND AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST AND H7 TEMPS OVERHEAD
WARM TO BETWEEN -4 TO -6. THINK A FEW HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE PLAINS
WILL BREAK THE 40 DEGREE MARK...ALTHOUGH SNOW COVER WILL OBVIOUSLY
KEEP TEMPS FROM SPIKING TOO HIGH. OVERALL...WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER
30S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS PEAKING IN THE LOW 40S ARE A GOOD BET.

TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE FURTHER AS READINGS AT
H7 RISE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO BY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOW
TO MID 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY AS A RESULT. SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT PROGS THROUGH THIS TIME WILL REMAIN ROUGHLY IN
THE 30 MTR RANGE...THUS BREEZY WINDS WILL PERSIST AT LEAST IN THE
WIND PRONE AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE MOISTURE MOVING
OVERHEAD. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR STRATUS AND PERHAPS SOME
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FOG IN THE HIGH VALLEYS OUT WEST OVERNIGHT
THOUGH AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE PROGS ARE HIGH WHILE WINDS
WEAKEN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

THE PATTERN ACROSS THE COUNTRY WILL FEATURE A GENERAL LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING OVER THE WEST. THE CWA
WILL RESIDE UNDER NWLY FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A
SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH THE SHORTWAVE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND COULD BRING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SO MAY EVENTUALLY
NEED SOME POPS FOR THAT TIME. OTHERWISE MILD TEMPS EXPECTED
OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. A
PRETTY GOOD SURGE OF COLD AIR LOOKS TO DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES FRIDAY BUT THE BULK OF THE COLDER AIR WILL PASS EAST OF
THE CWA...WITH JUST THE WESTERN PERIPHERY BACKING UP AGAINST THE
MTNS FRIDAY THEN RETREATING BACK EAST SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH GENERALLY
SCT TO BKN COVERAGE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYO
TERMINALS WHERE A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY IN THE
WEEK DUE TO A SURFACE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...BUT MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT. BREEZY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DISTRICT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...RJM




000
FXUS65 KCYS 081818
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1118 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER BREEZY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AS THE 700 MB GRADIENT REMAINS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MTRS
WITH THE JET STREAM OVERHEAD. EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS TO BE
OVER THE NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS INCLUDING ARLINGTON/ELK
MOUNTAIN AND THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE WHERE 40 TO 50 MPH GUSTS
ARE LIKELY. GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH OR HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE...
INCLUDING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

FOR TODAY...NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH CHANGE IN WINDS FROM CURRENT
CONDITIONS...WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THE UPWARD TREND AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST AND H7 TEMPS OVERHEAD
WARM TO BETWEEN -4 TO -6. THINK A FEW HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE PLAINS
WILL BREAK THE 40 DEGREE MARK...ALTHOUGH SNOW COVER WILL OBVIOUSLY
KEEP TEMPS FROM SPIKING TOO HIGH. OVERALL...WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER
30S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS PEAKING IN THE LOW 40S ARE A GOOD BET.

TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE FURTHER AS READINGS AT
H7 RISE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO BY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOW
TO MID 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY AS A RESULT. SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT PROGS THROUGH THIS TIME WILL REMAIN ROUGHLY IN
THE 30 MTR RANGE...THUS BREEZY WINDS WILL PERSIST AT LEAST IN THE
WIND PRONE AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE MOISTURE MOVING
OVERHEAD. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR STRATUS AND PERHAPS SOME
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FOG IN THE HIGH VALLEYS OUT WEST OVERNIGHT
THOUGH AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE PROGS ARE HIGH WHILE WINDS
WEAKEN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

THE PATTERN ACROSS THE COUNTRY WILL FEATURE A GENERAL LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING OVER THE WEST. THE CWA
WILL RESIDE UNDER NWLY FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A
SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH THE SHORTWAVE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND COULD BRING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SO MAY EVENTUALLY
NEED SOME POPS FOR THAT TIME. OTHERWISE MILD TEMPS EXPECTED
OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. A
PRETTY GOOD SURGE OF COLD AIR LOOKS TO DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES FRIDAY BUT THE BULK OF THE COLDER AIR WILL PASS EAST OF
THE CWA...WITH JUST THE WESTERN PERIPHERY BACKING UP AGAINST THE
MTNS FRIDAY THEN RETREATING BACK EAST SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH GENERALLY
SCT TO BKN COVERAGE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYO
TERMINALS WHERE A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY IN THE
WEEK DUE TO A SURFACE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...BUT MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT. BREEZY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DISTRICT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...RJM




000
FXUS63 KUNR 081733
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1033 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 219 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

UPPER LOW SPINS OVER WISCONSIN...WITH STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE WEST COAST...AND FAST NORTHWEST FLOW IN BETWEEN. STILL A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS HAVE
DECREASED BUT STILL REMAIN BREEZY AT 20-30 KTS. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S.

REGION WILL STAY UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW EARLY THIS WEEK.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 KTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SD
PLAINS TODAY...STRONGEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE LOW-END
ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE MET. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER
40S...UNDER INCREASINGLY CLOUDY SKIES.

ON TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TRANSITIONING EASTWARD...AND WARMER
AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST. BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL SD...AND AS SOME MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER
ENERGY MOVE OVER THE REGION...MAY BE A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT.
MAY ALSO BE SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HILLS.
OVERALL THESE AREAS MAY SEE AN INCH OF SNOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD
TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 219 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VERY MILD TEMPS EXPECTED ON WED AS THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO OUR WRN ZONES AND W/NW BL FLOW (DOWNSLOPE) PREVAILS. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FAST NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS THE
NRN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND PUSH A BACKDOOR CDFNT INTO THE CWFA. SOME
LIGHT PCPN POSSIBLE WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT ANTICIPATED. THIS COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPS FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND DEPENDENT ON
HOW FAR WEST THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENDS UP. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL CROSS THE NRN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND COULD BRING
SOME LIGHT PCPN TO OUR FAR WRN ZONES...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED. TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1032 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY NW
WINDS UP TO 35KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...PRIMARILY ON THE SD
PLAINS. SOME WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED ON THE WY PLAINS THIS EVENING
AS STRONG FLOW REMAINS ABOVE THE SFC.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS65 KRIW 081700
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1000 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

NW WINDS HAVE BEEN BLOWING FAIRLY STEADILY ACROSS THE UPPER
WIND RIVER BASIN FROM CROWHEART TO DUBOIS AS WELL AS IN THE VCNTY
OF PINEDALE IN RESPONSE TO THE RELATIVELY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT PRODUCED BY THE SFC HIGH CONTINUING TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. THE HEART OF THE WIND RIVER AND UPPER GREEN RIVER BASINS
ARE NO LONGER MIXED WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS. CURRENTLY IT IS 10
DEGREES 2 MILES SOUTH OF RIVERTON AND 37 IN CROWHEART AS
INVERSIONS REESTABLISH THEMSELVES AMONGST SNOW COVER. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL RETURN FROM RKS TO CPR TODAY AS A SFC LEE SIDE TROUGH
BEGINS TO DEVELOP. WITH TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS STRENGTHENING BY
12Z TUESDAY AND DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...BASINS AND
VALLEYS THAT STILL MAINTAIN SNOWCOVER WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG
LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL AS LATE TUE NT AND WED
MORNING. TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
BASINS AND VALLEYS LAGGING A DAY OR SO BEHIND AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND 60S ARE NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES FOR MIXED AREAS
LIKE CPR AND BYG RESPECTIVELY EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY WED AFTERNOON.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN FROM THE RED DESERT TO CPR
WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. INVERSIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD BUT WEAKEN OVER
COLDER FAR WEST VALLEYS. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WEST
AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...ECMWF AND GFS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA.  DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH SPLITTING ALONG THE WEST COAST ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE AND DIVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE BETTER MIXING ACROSS THE LOWER CENTRAL BASINS
WITH INCREASING NW WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION IN THE MID-LEVELS.  ONLY
THE NORTHERN BIGHORN RANGE MAY RECEIVE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WITH THIS CLIPPER. TEMPERATURES IN THE FAR WEST VALLEYS THAT MAY
BE TRAPPED UNDER STEEP INVERSIONS IN THE SHORT-TERM COULD MODERATE
AS WELL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION LIKELY BRINGING
SOME BKN-OVC STRATUS DECKS INTO THE AREA.

BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A GREATER DEGREE OF SPLITTING WITH NEXT
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC FRIDAY.  ECMWF
CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE GFS DAMPENS OUT THE NORTHERN STREAM TO
A MUCH GREATER DEGREE.  GFS SOLUTION KEEP WYOMING DRY WITH A MUCH
WEAKER FRONTAL PASSAGE.  ECMWF HAS SHOWN BETTER RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH ITS STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE.  NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
GOING FORECAST THAT IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST AND FAR NORTH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. ONLY SLIGHT COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN
CONCERN TODAY WILL BE MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR NEAR MOUNTAINS
AND MOUNTAIN TURBULENCE DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW
ALOFT. SOME PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT REMAINS A POSSIBILITY
OVER THE FAR WESTERN VALLEYS...AND PERHAPS OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
WIND RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. WILL INSERT VCFG INTO THE KJAC AND KRIW
TERMINAL SITES FOR LATE TONIGHT...BUT KEEP IT OUT OF THE UPPER GREEN
RIVER BASIN DUE TO THE EXPECTED CONTINUATION OF BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS IN THAT AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE WEATHER STORY FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SOME GUSTY WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOONS...WITH
OTHERWISE QUIET CONDITIONS. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH
THIS TIME RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD POOR SMOKE DISPERSION. THE
MAIN EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT SOME FAVORED FOOTHILL LOCATIONS AS WELL
AS FROM ROCK SPRINGS TO CASPER WHICH MAY SEE PERIODS OF FAIR
SMOKE DISPERSAL WITH THE PRESENCE OF GUSTY WIND.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...JB
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON




000
FXUS65 KRIW 081700
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1000 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

NW WINDS HAVE BEEN BLOWING FAIRLY STEADILY ACROSS THE UPPER
WIND RIVER BASIN FROM CROWHEART TO DUBOIS AS WELL AS IN THE VCNTY
OF PINEDALE IN RESPONSE TO THE RELATIVELY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT PRODUCED BY THE SFC HIGH CONTINUING TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. THE HEART OF THE WIND RIVER AND UPPER GREEN RIVER BASINS
ARE NO LONGER MIXED WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS. CURRENTLY IT IS 10
DEGREES 2 MILES SOUTH OF RIVERTON AND 37 IN CROWHEART AS
INVERSIONS REESTABLISH THEMSELVES AMONGST SNOW COVER. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL RETURN FROM RKS TO CPR TODAY AS A SFC LEE SIDE TROUGH
BEGINS TO DEVELOP. WITH TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS STRENGTHENING BY
12Z TUESDAY AND DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...BASINS AND
VALLEYS THAT STILL MAINTAIN SNOWCOVER WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG
LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL AS LATE TUE NT AND WED
MORNING. TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
BASINS AND VALLEYS LAGGING A DAY OR SO BEHIND AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND 60S ARE NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES FOR MIXED AREAS
LIKE CPR AND BYG RESPECTIVELY EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY WED AFTERNOON.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN FROM THE RED DESERT TO CPR
WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. INVERSIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD BUT WEAKEN OVER
COLDER FAR WEST VALLEYS. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WEST
AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...ECMWF AND GFS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA.  DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH SPLITTING ALONG THE WEST COAST ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE AND DIVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE BETTER MIXING ACROSS THE LOWER CENTRAL BASINS
WITH INCREASING NW WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION IN THE MID-LEVELS.  ONLY
THE NORTHERN BIGHORN RANGE MAY RECEIVE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WITH THIS CLIPPER. TEMPERATURES IN THE FAR WEST VALLEYS THAT MAY
BE TRAPPED UNDER STEEP INVERSIONS IN THE SHORT-TERM COULD MODERATE
AS WELL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION LIKELY BRINGING
SOME BKN-OVC STRATUS DECKS INTO THE AREA.

BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A GREATER DEGREE OF SPLITTING WITH NEXT
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC FRIDAY.  ECMWF
CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE GFS DAMPENS OUT THE NORTHERN STREAM TO
A MUCH GREATER DEGREE.  GFS SOLUTION KEEP WYOMING DRY WITH A MUCH
WEAKER FRONTAL PASSAGE.  ECMWF HAS SHOWN BETTER RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH ITS STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE.  NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
GOING FORECAST THAT IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST AND FAR NORTH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. ONLY SLIGHT COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN
CONCERN TODAY WILL BE MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR NEAR MOUNTAINS
AND MOUNTAIN TURBULENCE DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW
ALOFT. SOME PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT REMAINS A POSSIBILITY
OVER THE FAR WESTERN VALLEYS...AND PERHAPS OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
WIND RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. WILL INSERT VCFG INTO THE KJAC AND KRIW
TERMINAL SITES FOR LATE TONIGHT...BUT KEEP IT OUT OF THE UPPER GREEN
RIVER BASIN DUE TO THE EXPECTED CONTINUATION OF BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS IN THAT AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE WEATHER STORY FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SOME GUSTY WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOONS...WITH
OTHERWISE QUIET CONDITIONS. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH
THIS TIME RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD POOR SMOKE DISPERSION. THE
MAIN EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT SOME FAVORED FOOTHILL LOCATIONS AS WELL
AS FROM ROCK SPRINGS TO CASPER WHICH MAY SEE PERIODS OF FAIR
SMOKE DISPERSAL WITH THE PRESENCE OF GUSTY WIND.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...JB
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON



000
FXUS65 KCYS 080950
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
250 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER BREEZY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AS THE 700 MB GRADIENT REMAINS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MTRS
WITH THE JET STREAM OVERHEAD. EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS TO BE
OVER THE NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS INCLUDING ARLINGTON/ELK
MOUNTAIN AND THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE WHERE 40 TO 50 MPH GUSTS
ARE LIKELY. GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH OR HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE...
INCLUDING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

FOR TODAY...NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH CHANGE IN WINDS FROM CURRENT
CONDITIONS...WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THE UPWARD TREND AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST AND H7 TEMPS OVERHEAD
WARM TO BETWEEN -4 TO -6. THINK A FEW HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE PLAINS
WILL BREAK THE 40 DEGREE MARK...ALTHOUGH SNOW COVER WILL OBVIOUSLY
KEEP TEMPS FROM SPIKING TOO HIGH. OVERALL...WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER
30S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS PEAKING IN THE LOW 40S ARE A GOOD BET.

TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE FURTHER AS READINGS AT
H7 RISE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO BY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOW
TO MID 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY AS A RESULT. SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT PROGS THROUGH THIS TIME WILL REMAIN ROUGHLY IN
THE 30 MTR RANGE...THUS BREEZY WINDS WILL PERSIST AT LEAST IN THE
WIND PRONE AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE MOISTURE MOVING
OVERHEAD. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR STRATUS AND PERHAPS SOME
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FOG IN THE HIGH VALLEYS OUT WEST OVERNIGHT
THOUGH AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE PROGS ARE HIGH WHILE WINDS
WEAKEN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

THE PATTERN ACROSS THE COUNTRY WILL FEATURE A GENERAL LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING OVER THE WEST. THE CWA
WILL RESIDE UNDER NWLY FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A
SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH THE SHORTWAVE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND COULD BRING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SO MAY EVENTUALLY
NEED SOME POPS FOR THAT TIME. OTHERWISE MILD TEMPS EXPECTED
OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. A
PRETTY GOOD SURGE OF COLD AIR LOOKS TO DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES FRIDAY BUT THE BULK OF THE COLDER AIR WILL PASS EAST OF
THE CWA...WITH JUST THE WESTERN PERIPHERY BACKING UP AGAINST THE
MTNS FRIDAY THEN RETREATING BACK EAST SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH JUST SOME MID
LEVEL CIGS AFFECTING SOME OF THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. SOME
GUSTY NW WINDS AFFECTING KRWL TO KCYS TODAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY IN THE
WEEK DUE TO A SURFACE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...BUT MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT. BREEZY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DISTRICT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...RJM




000
FXUS65 KRIW 080923
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
223 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

NW WINDS HAVE BEEN BLOWING FAIRLY STEADILY ACROSS THE UPPER
WIND RIVER BASIN FROM CROWHEART TO DUBOIS AS WELL AS IN THE VCNTY
OF PINEDALE IN RESPONSE TO THE RELATIVELY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT PRODUCED BY THE SFC HIGH CONTINUING TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. THE HEART OF THE WIND RIVER AND UPPER GREEN RIVER BASINS
ARE NO LONGER MIXED WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS. CURRENTLY IT IS 10
DEGREES 2 MILES SOUTH OF RIVERTON AND 37 IN CROWHEART AS
INVERSIONS REESTABLISH THEMSELVES AMONGST SNOW COVER. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL RETURN FROM RKS TO CPR TODAY AS A SFC LEE SIDE TROUGH
BEGINS TO DEVELOP. WITH TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS STRENGTHENING BY
12Z TUESDAY AND DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...BASINS AND
VALLEYS THAT STILL MAINTAIN SNOWCOVER WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG
LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL AS LATE TUE NT AND WED
MORNING. TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
BASINS AND VALLEYS LAGGING A DAY OR SO BEHIND AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND 60S ARE NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES FOR MIXED AREAS
LIKE CPR AND BYG RESPECTIVELY EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY WED AFTERNOON.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN FROM THE RED DESERT TO CPR
WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. INVERSIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD BUT WEAKEN OVER
COLDER FAR WEST VALLEYS. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WEST
AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...ECMWF AND GFS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA.  DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH SPLITTING ALONG THE WEST COAST ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE AND DIVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE BETTER MIXING ACROSS THE LOWER CENTRAL BASINS
WITH INCREASING NW WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION IN THE MID-LEVELS.  ONLY
THE NORTHERN BIGHORN RANGE MAY RECEIVE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WITH THIS CLIPPER. TEMPERATURES IN THE FAR WEST VALLEYS THAT MAY
BE TRAPPED UNDER STEEP INVERSIONS IN THE SHORT-TERM COULD MODERATE
AS WELL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION LIKELY BRINGING
SOME BKN-OVC STRATUS DECKS INTO THE AREA.

BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A GREATER DEGREE OF SPLITTING WITH NEXT
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC FRIDAY.  ECMWF
CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE GFS DAMPENS OUT THE NORTHERN STREAM TO
A MUCH GREATER DEGREE.  GFS SOLUTION KEEP WYOMING DRY WITH A MUCH
WEAKER FRONTAL PASSAGE.  ECMWF HAS SHOWN BETTER RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH ITS STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE.  NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
GOING FORECAST THAT IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST AND FAR NORTH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. ONLY SLIGHT COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR NEAR
MOUNTAINS AND MOUNTAIN TURBULENCE DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHWEST TO
NORTH FLOW ALOFT. SOME FOG/LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY OVER THE FAR WESTERN VALLEYS...BUT A TURBULENT FLOW JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY REMAINS SLIM IN WILL KEEP FOG/LOW CLOUDS OUT OF KJAC
TERMINAL FOR NOW. HAVING SAID THAT...THERE IS A NICE BANK OF LOW
CLOUDS/FOG WEST OF THE TETONS IN EASTERN IDAHO TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
OTHERWISE...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BKN DECK OF MID CLOUDS
BETWEEN 070-120 KFT AGL THROUGH MID MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST
OF THE DIVIDE.  TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A BETTER SHOT AT FOG AND LOW
CEILINGS...MAINLY OVER FAR WESTERN VALLEYS...BUT CANNOT RULE IT OUT
EVEN OVER CENTRAL BASINS. WILL INSERT VCFG INTO KJAC TERMINAL LATE
TONIGHT...BUT KEEP IT OUT OF THE UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN DUE TO THE
EXPECTED CONTINUATION OF BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS IN THAT AREA. WILL
ALSO KEEP VCFG MENTION OUT OF CENTRAL BASINS INCLUDING KRIW AND KWRL
TERMINALS AS NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT DEPTH OF SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE WEATHER STORY FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SOME GUSTY WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOONS...WITH
OTHERWISE QUIET CONDITIONS. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH
THIS TIME RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD POOR SMOKE DISPERSION. THE
MAIN EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT SOME FAVORED FOOTHILL LOCATIONS AS WELL
AS FROM ROCK SPRINGS TO CASPER WHICH MAY SEE PERIODS OF FAIR
SMOKE DISPERSAL WITH THE PRESENCE OF GUSTY WIND.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 080921
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
221 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 219 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

UPPER LOW SPINS OVER WISCONSIN...WITH STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE WEST COAST...AND FAST NORTHWEST FLOW IN BETWEEN. STILL A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS HAVE
DECREASED BUT STILL REMAIN BREEZY AT 20-30 KTS. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S.

REGION WILL STAY UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW EARLY THIS WEEK.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 KTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SD
PLAINS TODAY...STRONGEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE LOW-END
ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE MET. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER
40S...UNDER INCREASINGLY CLOUDY SKIES.

ON TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TRANSITIONING EASTWARD...AND WARMER
AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST. BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL SD...AND AS SOME MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER
ENERGY MOVE OVER THE REGION...MAY BE A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT.
MAY ALSO BE SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HILLS.
OVERALL THESE AREAS MAY SEE AN INCH OF SNOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD
TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 219 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VERY MILD TEMPS EXPECTED ON WED AS THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO OUR WRN ZONES AND W/NW BL FLOW (DOWNSLOPE) PREVAILS. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FAST NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS THE
NRN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND PUSH A BACKDOOR CDFNT INTO THE CWFA. SOME
LIGHT PCPN POSSIBLE WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT ANTICIPATED. THIS COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPS FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND DEPENDENT ON
HOW FAR WEST THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENDS UP. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL CROSS THE NRN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND COULD BRING
SOME LIGHT PCPN TO OUR FAR WRN ZONES...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED. TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 219 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY NW
WINDS UP TO 35KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...PRIMARILY ON THE SD
PLAINS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 080921
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
221 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 219 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

UPPER LOW SPINS OVER WISCONSIN...WITH STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE WEST COAST...AND FAST NORTHWEST FLOW IN BETWEEN. STILL A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS HAVE
DECREASED BUT STILL REMAIN BREEZY AT 20-30 KTS. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S.

REGION WILL STAY UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW EARLY THIS WEEK.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 KTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SD
PLAINS TODAY...STRONGEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE LOW-END
ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE MET. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER
40S...UNDER INCREASINGLY CLOUDY SKIES.

ON TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TRANSITIONING EASTWARD...AND WARMER
AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST. BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL SD...AND AS SOME MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER
ENERGY MOVE OVER THE REGION...MAY BE A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT.
MAY ALSO BE SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HILLS.
OVERALL THESE AREAS MAY SEE AN INCH OF SNOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD
TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 219 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VERY MILD TEMPS EXPECTED ON WED AS THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO OUR WRN ZONES AND W/NW BL FLOW (DOWNSLOPE) PREVAILS. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FAST NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS THE
NRN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND PUSH A BACKDOOR CDFNT INTO THE CWFA. SOME
LIGHT PCPN POSSIBLE WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT ANTICIPATED. THIS COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPS FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND DEPENDENT ON
HOW FAR WEST THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENDS UP. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL CROSS THE NRN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND COULD BRING
SOME LIGHT PCPN TO OUR FAR WRN ZONES...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED. TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 219 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY NW
WINDS UP TO 35KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...PRIMARILY ON THE SD
PLAINS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 080921
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
221 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 219 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

UPPER LOW SPINS OVER WISCONSIN...WITH STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE WEST COAST...AND FAST NORTHWEST FLOW IN BETWEEN. STILL A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS HAVE
DECREASED BUT STILL REMAIN BREEZY AT 20-30 KTS. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S.

REGION WILL STAY UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW EARLY THIS WEEK.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 KTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SD
PLAINS TODAY...STRONGEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE LOW-END
ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE MET. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER
40S...UNDER INCREASINGLY CLOUDY SKIES.

ON TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TRANSITIONING EASTWARD...AND WARMER
AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST. BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL SD...AND AS SOME MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER
ENERGY MOVE OVER THE REGION...MAY BE A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT.
MAY ALSO BE SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HILLS.
OVERALL THESE AREAS MAY SEE AN INCH OF SNOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD
TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 219 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VERY MILD TEMPS EXPECTED ON WED AS THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO OUR WRN ZONES AND W/NW BL FLOW (DOWNSLOPE) PREVAILS. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FAST NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS THE
NRN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND PUSH A BACKDOOR CDFNT INTO THE CWFA. SOME
LIGHT PCPN POSSIBLE WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT ANTICIPATED. THIS COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPS FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND DEPENDENT ON
HOW FAR WEST THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENDS UP. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL CROSS THE NRN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND COULD BRING
SOME LIGHT PCPN TO OUR FAR WRN ZONES...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED. TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 219 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY NW
WINDS UP TO 35KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...PRIMARILY ON THE SD
PLAINS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON



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