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000
FXUS63 KUNR 292131
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
331 PM MDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Thursday Night)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Current surface analysis shows low pressure over north
central WY, with frontal boundary extending south-southeast along
the lee of the Rockies and into southwest KS. Upper level analysis
shows ridge remaining over the Rockies region, with northwest flow
across the Northern Plains. Weak shortwave energy is rotating around
the ridge from southeast MT into the western Dakotas. Bulk of
thunderstorm development has ended up being further north across the
area, mainly from southwest ND moving through northwest SD now.
Isolated short-lived supercells have developed over northwest SD,
producing strong wind gusts and some hail. This activity should
continue through the next few hours as it moves southeast into west-
central and central SD. Uncertainty exists further south and west as
far as severe potential, but isolated stronger storms are still
possible into the early evening across much of the cwa. Activity
will taper off again and end or become rather isolated overnight.
Lows will be in the 50s and lower 60s.

Slightly cooler air will settle into at least northern portions of
the cwa on Thursday as a weak front to the north slides south into
the area. Highs will range from the mid to upper 70s over northwest
SD and the Black Hills to the mid 80s over far southwest SD.
Thunderstorm chances during the day and into Thursday night will
mostly be confined to northeast WY, the Black Hills, and southwest
SD, along and ahead of the front. With better instability getting
pushed south of the area, the risk for strong to severe storms will
be rather low.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Upper ridging over northern Plains Friday will give way to zonal
flow through the weekend, then another upper trof digs over the
Pacific NW. Shortwave trof passes to the south of the area Sat &
Sun, with some storms mainly over southern SD. Although flow
transitions to SW early next week, will see isolated to scattered
thunderstorms. Strong surface high pushes into eastern Dakotas and
MN with cool SE return flow over the forecast area Friday, so have
trimmed back high temps. Lee trof deepens over eastern MT-Wy by
Sat, with better surface convergence over western SD. Thermal
ridge builds, with temperatures warming into the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued At 330 PM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Sct tstms have moved into nwrn SD with hail and strong straight
line wind gusts. Additional shwrs and tstms wl dvlp ovr nern WY
and the Blk Hls late this aftn, a few possibly strong to severe
w/ hail, strong straight line wnds and localized MVFR cigs in
vcnty of storms. Storms wl mov sewd into swrn SD. Cold front ovr
srn Canada wl push swd acrs Dakotas overnight, with wnds bcmg ne
early Thurs mrng.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...55
AVIATION...55



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000
FXUS65 KRIW 292125
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
325 PM MDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday

A high pressure ridge aloft extending from the Desert Southwest
north across the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies will pump
subtropical moisture north...then east across Western and central
Wyoming. The air mass will be unstable due to afternoon heating
supporting the development of afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms most numerous over the mountains.  Temperatures will
remain very warm to hot.  The strongest winds will be outflow winds
from convection. Relative humidity will be favorable in the
mountains but low in the valleys. Mixing heights will be high with
moderate transport winds combining for excellent smoke dispersal
in the afternoons.

.LONG TERM...Thursday night Through Wednesday

The high pressure ridge will remain pumping moisture into the
area through the weekend then a dry pacific trough will push the
subtropical moisture to the south with slight cooling. Some
convection will occur mainly supported by low level moisture
brought into the area by weak cold fronts from Montana. Into next
week across the southwest into central areas will become breezy to
windy as west southwest winds move in from the west as the main
pacific low pressure troughs move across the northern Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR conditions to prevail through the forecast period. Isolated to
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue around the
forecast area through 03z. More preferred and better coverage will
be found over the mountain ranges with local terrain forcing. Local
MVFR conditions will be possible in a few storms with heavy rain
that reduce visibilities. Wind gusts of 30 to 40 knots will also be
possible with some of these showers/storms. A few storms across
mainly Johnson and Natrona counties may be strong to briefly severe
in wind gusts or large hail. Showers and thunderstorms storms will
generally decrease after 02z across the forecast area with a few
linger showers maintaining through the overnight hours in the
mountains. Later, northwest Wyoming will see a slight increase in
showers by/before daybreak. Otherwise, showers and storms will be
more prevalent around Wyoming Thursday afternoon with best coverage
west of the Divide. All terminal site forecasts have VCNTY TSRA by
18z. Again, there may be brief periods of MVFR conditions associated
with reduced visibility in heavy rain.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A high pressure ridge aloft extending from the Desert Southwest
north across the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies will pump
subtropical moisture north...then east across Western and central
Wyoming. The air mass will be unstable due to afternoon heating
supporting the development of afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms most numerous over the mountains.  Temperatures will
remain very warm to hot.  The strongest winds will be outflow winds
from convection. Relative humidity will be favorable in the
mountains but low in the valleys. Mixing heights will be high with
moderate transport winds combining for excellent smoke dispersal
in the afternoons. This will continue into the weekend.

&&

.RIW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.Baker
LONG TERM...C.Baker
AVIATION...Braun
FIRE WEATHER...C.Baker



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000
FXUS65 KCYS 292023
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
223 PM MDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 215 PM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Tonight...Shortwave progged to move across our counties this evening
with scattered thunderstorms across southeast Wyoming progged to
move east southeast across the Nebraska panhandle this evening.
Based on the models and the instability axis, best chance of severe
storms will be south of a Douglas to Alliance line this evening and
along and east of I-25.

Thursday...Cooler and a more shower filled day with deep upslope to
700 mb, limiting instability. Expect scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms in the afternoon, and with CAPES only 500 to 1000
J/kg and shear around 40 knots, will have less chance for severe
storms and more producing locally heavy rain due to weaker winds
aloft.

Thursday night...Showers and thunderstorms will take longer to
dissipate with soupy airmass in place as a shortwave approaches from
southwest Wyoming.

Friday...Slow moving shortwave moves overhead, and with a moist
airmass in place from the low to mid levels, at least scattered, and
more likely numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms expected in
the afternoon east of Interstate 25. Main focus for storms will be
along and east of a Lusk to Kimball line, where low level
convergence will be maximized along a frontal boundary.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 PM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Monsoonal fetch of subtropical moisture from the Four Corners
into the central Rockies and High Plains will keep conditions
unsettled Friday night through Sunday, with scattered mainly
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Precipitable
water values will range from 0.75 inches west of Laramie Range
to 1.50 inches east Friday night and Saturday, so there is the
potential for locally heavy rainfall with some of the convection.
The severe threat will be low with MUCAPE values 500-1000 j/kg
and shear values less than 30 kt. A shortwave trough will push
across the central and southern Rockies Saturday, and into the
plains Sunday. Models indicate somewhat drier air will return
Sunday through early next week as zonal flow aloft diverts the
subtropical moisture to the south. There will be some instability
though, so cannot discount isolated diurnal convection mainly
over and near the higher terrain of southeast Wyoming. Slightly
below normal temperatures Saturday, moderate to normal Sunday, and
above normal Independence Day through Wednesday. Very warm
temperatures, breezy west to southwest winds and low humidities
will heighten the fire danger over east and south central WY.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1146 AM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

No significant change from the 12Z taf issuance. A couple short
range models are indication convection developing over the
southeast WY mountains early afternoon and moving ESE onto the
adjacent valleys and plains by 21Z, including RWL, LAR and CYS.
Confidence not high/coverage more isolated this afternoon, so
maintained VCTS at these aerodromes. Western NE aerodromes may not
see convection form until around 00Z. Potential for strong/gusty
outflow winds and hail east of the Laramie Range where instability
and wind shear will be greater. Convection will come to an end
later this evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 205 PM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Minimal concerns based on projected humidities and winds, especially
through Friday with a moist air mass in place.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...MAJ
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN




000
FXUS63 KUNR 291808
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1208 PM MDT WED JUN 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 AM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Current surface analysis shows low pressure over north central WY,
with frontal boundary extending south-southeast along the lee of
the Rockies and into southwest KS. Upper level analysis shows
ridge remaining over the Rockies region, with northwest flow
across the Northern Plains. A few showers have been noted across
northeast WY and northwest SD this morning, with partly cloudy to
mostly sunny skies across the cwa. Temps at mid morning are in the
upper 60s and 70s. Winds are mostly light and variable.

Have updated the forecast to remove early morning fog and to
adjust sky cover some for the rest of the morning. Also raised
highs a couple of degrees in most areas. No changes to forecast
for later today with regard to thunderstorm chances and threat
for severe wx. Best chances will be from the Black Hills area and
southward, similar to yesterday.

UPDATE Issued at 623 AM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

A line of fog/low clouds has developed along the northeastern
foothills and towards Philip, so added mention to grids for early
this morning. Some weak storms continue to track southeastward
across northwestern SD, and showers are beginning to move into
northeastern WY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Thursday Night)
Issued at 146 AM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

With high pressure over the Four Corners, upper ridge
covers the western states, putting the northern plains in continued
northwest flow. Next upper wave to affect the region is over
northern MT. There are a few clouds across northeastern WY...and
some weak storms over northwestern SD. Winds are light and variable,
and temps are in the 50s and 60s.

Weak upper wave will move over the northern Rockies today. At the
surface, easterly flow will continue to advect in moist air with
upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints. MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg will
develop across the area this afternoon, as well as 0-6 km shear
around 50 kts. Conditions look similar to yesterday, except for
slightly less instability and shear. Also similar to yesterday,
hi-res convective models differ in timing/location/mode...agreeing
only that there will be storms somewhere. Nonetheless, conditions
are favorable for large hail and damaging winds again today. Highs
will be in the 80s.

Tonight, a Canadian low pressure system will drag a cold front
through the region, and high pressure will begin to settle into the
northern plains. Return flow will develop over the southwestern CWA,
resulting in some weak instability there. Decent shear will aid in
thunderstorm development along and south of the front, while dry
conditions are expected across much of the western SD plains. Highs
Thursday will be cooler, around 80.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Through Tuesday)
Issued at 146 AM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

West to northwest upper flow will continue through the
extended period with the upper ridge to the west flattening and the
flow becoming more zonal for the beginning of next week. Relatively
moist southeasterly flow will prevail at the surface. A series of
upper level disturbances will combine with the persistent flow of
low and mid level moisture to aid in the development of diurnal
convection over various parts of the forecast area each day. On most
days the coverage will be limited, with only isolated to scattered
thunderstorms. Deep layer shear will support the threat of severe
storms, however the general lack of strong upper level forcing will
keep the coverage of severe storms limited. Slightly cooler than
average temperatures will occur on Friday, then temperatures will
warm through the weekend, becoming around 10 degrees warmer than
average for the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Thursday
Issued At 1202 PM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Shwrs and tstms wl dvlp ovr nern WY and the Blk Hls this aftn,
some possibly severe w/ lg hail and strong straight line wnds and
localized MVFR cigs in vcnty of storms. Storms wl mov sewd into
swrn SD. Cold front ovr srn Canada wl push swd acrs Dakotas
overnight, with wnds bcmg ne early Thurs mrng.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Update...26
SHORT TERM...Pojorlie
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...55




000
FXUS63 KUNR 291808
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1208 PM MDT WED JUN 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 AM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Current surface analysis shows low pressure over north central WY,
with frontal boundary extending south-southeast along the lee of
the Rockies and into southwest KS. Upper level analysis shows
ridge remaining over the Rockies region, with northwest flow
across the Northern Plains. A few showers have been noted across
northeast WY and northwest SD this morning, with partly cloudy to
mostly sunny skies across the cwa. Temps at mid morning are in the
upper 60s and 70s. Winds are mostly light and variable.

Have updated the forecast to remove early morning fog and to
adjust sky cover some for the rest of the morning. Also raised
highs a couple of degrees in most areas. No changes to forecast
for later today with regard to thunderstorm chances and threat
for severe wx. Best chances will be from the Black Hills area and
southward, similar to yesterday.

UPDATE Issued at 623 AM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

A line of fog/low clouds has developed along the northeastern
foothills and towards Philip, so added mention to grids for early
this morning. Some weak storms continue to track southeastward
across northwestern SD, and showers are beginning to move into
northeastern WY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Thursday Night)
Issued at 146 AM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

With high pressure over the Four Corners, upper ridge
covers the western states, putting the northern plains in continued
northwest flow. Next upper wave to affect the region is over
northern MT. There are a few clouds across northeastern WY...and
some weak storms over northwestern SD. Winds are light and variable,
and temps are in the 50s and 60s.

Weak upper wave will move over the northern Rockies today. At the
surface, easterly flow will continue to advect in moist air with
upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints. MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg will
develop across the area this afternoon, as well as 0-6 km shear
around 50 kts. Conditions look similar to yesterday, except for
slightly less instability and shear. Also similar to yesterday,
hi-res convective models differ in timing/location/mode...agreeing
only that there will be storms somewhere. Nonetheless, conditions
are favorable for large hail and damaging winds again today. Highs
will be in the 80s.

Tonight, a Canadian low pressure system will drag a cold front
through the region, and high pressure will begin to settle into the
northern plains. Return flow will develop over the southwestern CWA,
resulting in some weak instability there. Decent shear will aid in
thunderstorm development along and south of the front, while dry
conditions are expected across much of the western SD plains. Highs
Thursday will be cooler, around 80.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Through Tuesday)
Issued at 146 AM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

West to northwest upper flow will continue through the
extended period with the upper ridge to the west flattening and the
flow becoming more zonal for the beginning of next week. Relatively
moist southeasterly flow will prevail at the surface. A series of
upper level disturbances will combine with the persistent flow of
low and mid level moisture to aid in the development of diurnal
convection over various parts of the forecast area each day. On most
days the coverage will be limited, with only isolated to scattered
thunderstorms. Deep layer shear will support the threat of severe
storms, however the general lack of strong upper level forcing will
keep the coverage of severe storms limited. Slightly cooler than
average temperatures will occur on Friday, then temperatures will
warm through the weekend, becoming around 10 degrees warmer than
average for the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Thursday
Issued At 1202 PM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Shwrs and tstms wl dvlp ovr nern WY and the Blk Hls this aftn,
some possibly severe w/ lg hail and strong straight line wnds and
localized MVFR cigs in vcnty of storms. Storms wl mov sewd into
swrn SD. Cold front ovr srn Canada wl push swd acrs Dakotas
overnight, with wnds bcmg ne early Thurs mrng.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Update...26
SHORT TERM...Pojorlie
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...55




000
FXUS65 KCYS 291752
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1152 AM MDT WED JUN 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1021 AM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Gridded forecasts updated for this afternoon for some minor
adjustments. By late this afternoon, surface and mid level low
pressure will reside over southeast Wyoming with a decent low
level convergence axis setting up along Interstate 25, as seen
on impressive 850 mb and 700 mb theta-e ridge axis. Thus, it
appears the best thunderstorm initiation will occur early this
afternoon along Interstate 25 with storms then moving east
southeast at 10 to 15 mph. Shear and instability quite capable
for some severe storms again with CAPE ranging from 1500-2500
J/kg and 0 to 6 km bulk shear near 50 knots.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 350 AM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Looks like one more day having to deal with some severe convection
as the overall pattern similar to yesterday. Currently a band of
showers and a couple embedded weak storms moving southeast along a
Torrington to Sidney line. These should end over the next few
hours.

Upper high centered around the 4-corners area with NW flow across
the CWA. next impulse in the flow looks to pass across the area
late this afternoon into this evening. CAPES should rise into the
1000-2500 J/kg range east of the mtns this afternoon with easterly
low level upslope flow setting the stage for another round of
strong/severe convection this afternoon and evening. Large hail
and strong winds the main threat again with activity moving
generally southeastward. Should see a decrease in convection
during the evening but some may hang around through tonight helped
by another weak impulse moving down the front side of the upper
high. Meanwhile a cool surface high will drop south out of
central Canada tonight pushing a front against the mtns Thursday.
Cooler temps will move over the plains Thursday and continue
through Friday which will act to reduce instability so severe
storm threat will be much lower. Scattered showers and tstms
remaining in the forecast Thursday and Friday with a monsoonal-
like moisture feed continuing across the region.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through next Tuesday night)
Issued at 410 AM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Showers and thunderstorms will likely continue through Saturday
across the forecast area as subtropical moisture remains in place
and an upper level shortwave slowly moves eastward across the
central and southern Rockys. Nocturnal convection is certainly
possible late friday night as several models show the shortwave
aloft and associated cooler air moving over the area.
However...there are substantial timing difference in model
guidance...but this is expected this time of the year due to the
relatively slow movement of these waves. Later in the
weekend...all models show signs of resolving these timing
differences and show the upper level shortwave east of the
forecast area and gradually accelerating eastward into the central
Great Plains states. This will result in somewhat drier zonal flow
as PW/s lower from 1.0 to 1.5 inches on Friday to between 0.5 to
0.75 inches on Sunday and Monday. With some instability present
and nearly zonal flow...can not completely rule out daily isolated
thunderstorms early next week...but coverage should be
considerably less compared to recent days...especially east of the
Laramie Range. Temperatures will be near or slightly below normal
at the start of the weekend...generally in the mid 70s to mid
80s...but then are expected to gradually modify into early next
week. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will become very warm or hot
across the area...as temperatures rise between the upper 80s
across the high valleys to the mid/upper 90s over western
Nebraska.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1146 AM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

No significant change from the 12Z taf issuance. A couple short
range models are indication convection developing over the
southeast WY mountains early afternoon and moving ESE onto the
adjacent valleys and plains by 21Z, including RWL, LAR and CYS.
Confidence not high/coverage more isolated this afternoon, so
maintained VCTS at these aerodromes. Western NE aerodromes may not
see convection form until around 00Z. Potential for strong/gusty
outflow winds and hail east of the Laramie Range where instability
and wind shear will be greater. Convection will come to an end
later this evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 350 AM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Fire weather concerns look to be on the low side for the rest of
the week with widely scattered afternoon and evening showers and
storms...especially today through Thursday. Wetting rains expected
in many areas east of the mountains.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RUBIN
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...MAJ
FIRE WEATHER...RE




000
FXUS65 KRIW 291654
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
1054 AM MDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...Wednesday through Friday night

The active pattern looks to continue through much of the short
range. As of right now the radar looks fairly quiet and this should
be the case through most of the morning. A weak boundary slash cold
front will drop southward across the area and help to enhance
easterly flow today. This will bring in more moisture that will lead
to another round of showers and thunderstorms. As for the chance of
stronger thunderstorms, the Storm Prediction Center has a marginal
risk area in approximately the same place as on Tuesday. Severe
parameters are not quite as high as yesterday, but still decent
though. For now, we will stick to the small hail and gusty wind
wording. Again, the best chance of any severe thunderstorms would be
similar to Tuesday, Johnson and eastern Natrona Counties. The day
shift may want to add stronger wording if future outlooks back the
slight risk area into the County Warning area.  With higher
precipitable water values, there will be less of a chance of dry
storms however.

And interesting scenario tonight as a plume of monsoonal moisture
surges into the area. The NAM shows precipitable water values rising
to over an inch across much of the area. Both the NAM and GFS show
some precipitation continuing overnight. Continuity had this
represented fairly well so we made few changes. The area of
steadier precipitation differs however so we kept POPS generic.

The main monsoonal moisture will be found over the area on
Thursday.This should lead to more cloud cover and as a result
somewhat cooler temperatures. It will also hold instability down a
bit more so the chance of stronger thunderstorms will increase. It
may increase the chance of heavy rain however. Confidence is not
strong enough to include it in the grids yet, but will have to be
looked at. Coverage of convection should shrink significantly on
Thursday night as the deepest moisture gets pushed south and east
of the County Warning Area.

On Friday, temperatures will increase as sky cover decreases. With
less moisture in the air as precipitable water values fall by about a
third of an inch , coverage of showers will also decrease as well.
For now, the slight to chance POPS look fine for most areas with the
least coverage in the Basins and the highest in the mountains and
adjacent foothills.

.LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday

Very warm to hot and generally dry period prevails through the
medium range period ridge as the ridge to the south dominates the
weather overall. There will be a general flattening of the ridge
as mean ridge axis moves from the SW U.S. to the Southern High
Plains next week. Models are showing one decent shortwave passing
across MT on Sunday which may kick up the winds across the
Absaroka front as right front quad of the jet moves just north of
the area. Have increased the winds along the Cody Foothills for
this possibility. A much more significant trough may dig into the
PacNW on Wednesday and then head towards the area Wednesday Night
or Thursday of next week. It should be quite warm/hot ahead of
this system with increased wind and fire danger followed by the
potential for strong to severe storms along the front in the
west/nw if the timing is right late Wednesday/Wed evening. Euro is
slower than the GFS this far out so we`ll see. GEM also has this
midweek trough. Otherwise, we still have a few disturbances moving
across in the general wly flow over the weekend with marginal
moisture and instability but enough for some mainly mtn
showers/tstms that will try and move onto the lower elevations
late in the afternoon or evening. Fairly dry sw flow Monday and
Tuesday with limited late day tstm chances then the hot and
potentially windy day next Wednesday with potential for strong
front approaching the nw with stronger storms.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

VFR conditions to prevail through the forecast period. Isolated to
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop over
southern, central and north central to northeastern WY after 19z and
continue through 03z. A little better coverage will be found over
the mountain ranges. Local MVFR conditions will be possible in
storms with heavy rain that reduce visibilities. Wind gusts of 30 to
40 knots will also be possible with these showers/storms. A few
storms across mainly Johnson and Natrona counties may be strong to
briefly severe in wind gusts or large hail. Showers and
thunderstorms storms will decrease after 02z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

With flow turning easterly across the area today, fire danger should
decrease somewhat. Most areas will see isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening although some
showers will linger into late Wednesday night as well. A few
stronger storms are possible north and east of a line from Cody to
Casper with any severe thunderstorms mainly in Johnson County.
Mixing should be generally good outside of any precipitation. Wind
should also be lighter than yesterday outside of any
thunderstorms.
&&

.RIW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hattings
LONG TERM...Skrbac
AVIATION...BRAUN
FIRE WEATHER...Hattings




000
FXUS65 KCYS 291629
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1029 AM MDT WED JUN 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1021 AM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Gridded forecasts updated for this afternoon for some minor
adjustments. By late this afternoon, surface and mid level low
pressure will reside over southeast Wyoming with a decent low
level convergence axis setting up along Interstate 25, as seen
on impressive 850 mb and 700 mb theta-e ridge axis. Thus, it
appears the best thunderstorm initiation will occur early this
afternoon along Interstate 25 with storms then moving east
southeast at 10 to 15 mph. Shear and instability quite capable
for some severe storms again with CAPE ranging from 1500-2500
J/kg and 0 to 6 km bulk shear near 50 knots.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 350 AM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Looks like one more day having to deal with some severe convection
as the overall pattern similar to yesterday. Currently a band of
showers and a couple embedded weak storms moving southeast along a
Torrington to Sidney line. These should end over the next few
hours.

Upper high centered around the 4-corners area with NW flow across
the CWA. next impulse in the flow looks to pass across the area
late this afternoon into this evening. CAPES should rise into the
1000-2500 J/kg range east of the mtns this afternoon with easterly
low level upslope flow setting the stage for another round of
strong/severe convection this afternoon and evening. Large hail
and strong winds the main threat again with activity moving
generally southeastward. Should see a decrease in convection
during the evening but some may hang around through tonight helped
by another weak impulse moving down the front side of the upper
high. Meanwhile a cool surface high will drop south out of
central Canada tonight pushing a front against the mtns Thursday.
Cooler temps will move over the plains Thursday and continue
through Friday which will act to reduce instability so severe
storm threat will be much lower. Scattered showers and tstms
remaining in the forecast Thursday and Friday with a monsoonal-
like moisture feed continuing across the region.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through next Tuesday night)
Issued at 410 AM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Showers and thunderstorms will likely continue through Saturday
across the forecast area as subtropical moisture remains in place
and an upper level shortwave slowly moves eastward across the
central and southern Rockys. Nocturnal convection is certainly
possible late friday night as several models show the shortwave
aloft and associated cooler air moving over the area.
However...there are substantial timing difference in model
guidance...but this is expected this time of the year due to the
relatively slow movement of these waves. Later in the
weekend...all models show signs of resolving these timing
differences and show the upper level shortwave east of the
forecast area and gradually accelerating eastward into the central
Great Plains states. This will result in somewhat drier zonal flow
as PW/s lower from 1.0 to 1.5 inches on Friday to between 0.5 to
0.75 inches on Sunday and Monday. With some instability present
and nearly zonal flow...can not completely rule out daily isolated
thunderstorms early next week...but coverage should be
considerably less compared to recent days...especially east of the
Laramie Range. Temperatures will be near or slightly below normal
at the start of the weekend...generally in the mid 70s to mid
80s...but then are expected to gradually modify into early next
week. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will become very warm or hot
across the area...as temperatures rise between the upper 80s
across the high valleys to the mid/upper 90s over western
Nebraska.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through Wednesday night)
Issued at 315 AM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Low cigs have developed in the last hour at KCYS early this
morning with MVFR conditions expected to continue through sunrise.
There is a chance that low CIGS and some patchy fog will develop
over the Nebraska panhandle...but surface winds will have to
diminish as winds are currently between 8 to 15 MPH from KSNY to
KCDR at this hour. Otherwise...another round of strong
thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and this
evening...especially along and east of the Laramie Range.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 350 AM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Fire weather concerns look to be on the low side for the rest of
the week with widely scattered afternoon and evening showers and
storms...especially today through Thursday. Wetting rains expected
in many areas east of the mountains.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RUBIN
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...RE




000
FXUS63 KUNR 291540
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
940 AM MDT WED JUN 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 AM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Current surface analysis shows low pressure over north central WY,
with frontal boundary extending south-southeast along the lee of
the Rockies and into southwest KS. Upper level analysis shows
ridge remaining over the Rockies region, with northwest flow
across the Northern Plains. A few showers have been noted across
northeast WY and northwest SD this morning, with partly cloudy to
mostly sunny skies across the cwa. Temps at mid morning are in the
upper 60s and 70s. Winds are mostly light and variable.

Have updated the forecast to remove early morning fog and to
adjust sky cover some for the rest of the morning. Also raised
highs a couple of degrees in most areas. No changes to forecast
for later today with regard to thunderstorm chances and threat
for severe wx. Best chances will be from the Black Hills area and
southward, similar to yesterday.

UPDATE Issued at 623 AM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

A line of fog/low clouds has developed along the northeastern
foothills and towards Philip, so added mention to grids for early
this morning. Some weak storms continue to track southeastward
across northwestern SD, and showers are beginning to move into
northeastern WY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Thursday Night)
Issued at 146 AM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

With high pressure over the Four Corners, upper ridge
covers the western states, putting the northern plains in continued
northwest flow. Next upper wave to affect the region is over
northern MT. There are a few clouds across northeastern WY...and
some weak storms over northwestern SD. Winds are light and variable,
and temps are in the 50s and 60s.

Weak upper wave will move over the northern Rockies today. At the
surface, easterly flow will continue to advect in moist air with
upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints. MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg will
develop across the area this afternoon, as well as 0-6 km shear
around 50 kts. Conditions look similar to yesterday, except for
slightly less instability and shear. Also similar to yesterday,
hi-res convective models differ in timing/location/mode...agreeing
only that there will be storms somewhere. Nonetheless, conditions
are favorable for large hail and damaging winds again today. Highs
will be in the 80s.

Tonight, a Canadian low pressure system will drag a cold front
through the region, and high pressure will begin to settle into the
northern plains. Return flow will develop over the southwestern CWA,
resulting in some weak instability there. Decent shear will aid in
thunderstorm development along and south of the front, while dry
conditions are expected across much of the western SD plains. Highs
Thursday will be cooler, around 80.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Through Tuesday)
Issued at 146 AM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

West to northwest upper flow will continue through the
extended period with the upper ridge to the west flattening and the
flow becoming more zonal for the beginning of next week. Relatively
moist southeasterly flow will prevail at the surface. A series of
upper level disturbances will combine with the persistent flow of
low and mid level moisture to aid in the development of diurnal
convection over various parts of the forecast area each day. On most
days the coverage will be limited, with only isolated to scattered
thunderstorms. Deep layer shear will support the threat of severe
storms, however the general lack of strong upper level forcing will
keep the coverage of severe storms limited. Slightly cooler than
average temperatures will occur on Friday, then temperatures will
warm through the weekend, becoming around 10 degrees warmer than
average for the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued At 146 AM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will occur over
parts of northwestern South Dakota this morning. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening with some
severe thunderstorms, with large hail and damaging wind gusts
possible. VFR conditions will prevail through the period except for
local MVFR conditions possible near any thunderstorms.


&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Update...26
SHORT TERM...Pojorlie
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10




000
FXUS63 KUNR 291226
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
626 AM MDT WED JUN 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 623 AM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

A line of fog/low clouds has developed along the northeastern
foothills and towards Philip, so added mention to grids for early
this morning. Some weak storms continue to track southeastward
across northwestern SD, and showers are beginning to move into
northeastern WY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Thursday Night)
Issued at 146 AM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

With high pressure over the Four Corners, upper ridge
covers the western states, putting the northern plains in continued
northwest flow. Next upper wave to affect the region is over
northern MT. There are a few clouds across northeastern WY...and
some weak storms over northwestern SD. Winds are light and variable,
and temps are in the 50s and 60s.

Weak upper wave will move over the northern Rockies today. At the
surface, easterly flow will continue to advect in moist air with
upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints. MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg will
develop across the area this afternoon, as well as 0-6 km shear
around 50 kts. Conditions look similar to yesterday, except for
slightly less instability and shear. Also similar to yesterday,
hi-res convective models differ in timing/location/mode...agreeing
only that there will be storms somewhere. Nonetheless, conditions
are favorable for large hail and damaging winds again today. Highs
will be in the 80s.

Tonight, a Canadian low pressure system will drag a cold front
through the region, and high pressure will begin to settle into the
northern plains. Return flow will develop over the southwestern CWA,
resulting in some weak instability there. Decent shear will aid in
thunderstorm development along and south of the front, while dry
conditions are expected across much of the western SD plains. Highs
Thursday will be cooler, around 80.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Through Tuesday)
Issued at 146 AM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

West to northwest upper flow will continue through the
extended period with the upper ridge to the west flattening and the
flow becoming more zonal for the beginning of next week. Relatively
moist southeasterly flow will prevail at the surface. A series of
upper level disturbances will combine with the persistent flow of
low and mid level moisture to aid in the development of diurnal
convection over various parts of the forecast area each day. On most
days the coverage will be limited, with only isolated to scattered
thunderstorms. Deep layer shear will support the threat of severe
storms, however the general lack of strong upper level forcing will
keep the coverage of severe storms limited. Slightly cooler than
average temperatures will occur on Friday, then temperatures will
warm through the weekend, becoming around 10 degrees warmer than
average for the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued At 146 AM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will occur over
parts of northwestern South Dakota this morning. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening with some
severe thunderstorms, with large hail and damaging wind gusts
possible. VFR conditions will prevail through the period except for
local MVFR conditions possible near any thunderstorms.


&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Update...Pojorlie
SHORT TERM...Pojorlie
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10




000
FXUS65 KCYS 291009
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
409 AM MDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 350 AM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Looks like one more day having to deal with some severe convection
as the overall pattern similar to yesterday. Currently a band of
showers and a couple embedded weak storms moving southeast along a
Torrington to Sidney line. These should end over the next few
hours.

Upper high centered around the 4-corners area with NW flow across
the CWA. next impulse in the flow looks to pass across the area
late this afternoon into this evening. CAPES should rise into the
1000-2500 J/kg range east of the mtns this afternoon with easterly
low level upslope flow setting the stage for another round of
strong/severe convection this afternoon and evening. Large hail
and strong winds the main threat again with activity moving
generally southeastward. Should see a decrease in convection
during the evening but some may hang around through tonight helped
by another weak impulse moving down the front side of the upper
high. Meanwhile a cool surface high will drop south out of
central Canada tonight pushing a front against the mtns Thursday.
Cooler temps will move over the plains Thursday and continue
through Friday which will act to reduce instability so severe
storm threat will be much lower. Scattered showers and tstms
remaining in the forecast Thursday and Friday with a monsoonal-
like moisture feed continuing across the region.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through next Tuesday night)
Issued at 410 AM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Showers and thunderstorms will likely continue through Saturday
across the forecast area as subtropical moisture remains in place
and an upper level shortwave slowly moves eastward across the
central and southern Rockys. Nocturnal convection is certainly
possible late friday night as several models show the shortwave
aloft and associated cooler air moving over the area.
However...there are substantial timing difference in model
guidance...but this is expected this time of the year due to the
relatively slow movement of these waves. Later in the
weekend...all models show signs of resolving these timing
differences and show the upper level shortwave east of the
forecast area and gradually accelerating eastward into the central
Great Plains states. This will result in somewhat drier zonal flow
as PW/s lower from 1.0 to 1.5 inches on Friday to between 0.5 to
0.75 inches on Sunday and Monday. With some instability present
and nearly zonal flow...can not completely rule out daily isolated
thunderstorms early next week...but coverage should be
considerably less compared to recent days...especially east of the
Laramie Range. Temperatures will be near or slightly below normal
at the start of the weekend...generally in the mid 70s to mid
80s...but then are expected to gradually modify into early next
week. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will become very warm or hot
across the area...as temperatures rise between the upper 80s
across the high valleys to the mid/upper 90s over western
Nebraska.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through Wednesday night)
Issued at 315 AM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Low cigs have developed in the last hour at KCYS early this
morning with MVFR conditions expected to continue through sunrise.
There is a chance that low CIGS and some patchy fog will develop
over the Nebraska panhandle...but surface winds will have to
diminish as winds are currently between 8 to 15 MPH from KSNY to
KCDR at this hour. Otherwise...another round of strong
thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and this
evening...especially along and east of the Laramie Range.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 350 AM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Fire weather concerns look to be on the low side for the rest of
the week with widely scattered afternoon and evening showers and
storms...especially today through Thursday. Wetting rains expected
in many areas east of the mountains.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...RE




000
FXUS65 KRIW 290839
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
239 AM MDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...Wednesday through Friday night

The active pattern looks to continue through much of the short
range. As of right now the radar looks fairly quiet and this should
be the case through most of the morning. A weak boundary slash cold
front will drop southward across the area and help to enhance
easterly flow today. This will bring in more moisture that will lead
to another round of showers and thunderstorms. As for the chance of
stronger thunderstorms, the Storm Prediction Center has a marginal
risk area in approximately the same place as on Tuesday. Severe
parameters are not quite as high as yesterday, but still decent
though. For now, we will stick to the small hail and gusty wind
wording. Again, the best chance of any severe thunderstorms would be
similar to Tuesday, Johnson and eastern Natrona Counties. The day
shift may want to add stronger wording if future outlooks back the
slight risk area into the County Warning area.  With higher
precipitable water values, there will be less of a chance of dry
storms however.

And interesting scenario tonight as a plume of monsoonal moisture
surges into the area. The NAM shows precipitable water values rising
to over an inch across much of the area. Both the NAM and GFS show
some precipitation continuing overnight. Continuity had this
represented fairly well so we made few changes. The area of
steadier precipitation differs however so we kept POPS generic.

The main monsoonal moisture will be found over the area on
Thursday.This should lead to more cloud cover and as a result
somewhat cooler temperatures. It will also hold instability down a
bit more so the chance of stronger thunderstorms will increase. It
may increase the chance of heavy rain however. Confidence is not
strong enough to include it in the grids yet, but will have to be
looked at. Coverage of convection should shrink significantly on
Thursday night as the deepest moisture gets pushed south and east
of the County Warning Area.

On Friday, temperatures will increase as sky cover decreases. With
less moisture in the air as precipitable water values fall by about a
third of an inch , coverage of showers will also decrease as well.
For now, the slight to chance POPS look fine for most areas with the
least coverage in the Basins and the highest in the mountains and
adjacent foothills.

.LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday

Very warm to hot and generally dry period prevails through the
medium range period ridge as the ridge to the south dominates the
weather overall. There will be a general flattening of the ridge
as mean ridge axis moves from the SW U.S. to the Southern High
Plains next week. Models are showing one decent shortwave passing
across MT on Sunday which may kick up the winds across the
Absaroka front as right front quad of the jet moves just north of
the area. Have increased the winds along the Cody Foothills for
this possibility. A much more significant trough may dig into the
PacNW on Wednesday and then head towards the area Wednesday Night
or Thursday of next week. It should be quite warm/hot ahead of
this system with increased wind and fire danger followed by the
potential for strong to severe storms along the front in the
west/nw if the timing is right late Wednesday/Wed evening. Euro is
slower than the GFS this far out so we`ll see. GEM also has this
midweek trough. Otherwise, we still have a few disturbances moving
across in the general wly flow over the weekend with marginal
moisture and instability but enough for some mainly mtn
showers/tstms that will try and move onto the lower elevations
late in the afternoon or evening. Fairly dry sw flow Monday and
Tuesday with limited late day tstm chances then the hot and
potentially windy day next Wednesday with potential for strong
front approaching the nw with stronger storms.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

VFR conditions to prevail through tonight. Scattered showers and
storms will develop over southern and central WY after 19z and
continue through 02z. Local MVFR conditions will be possible in
storms with heavy rain that reduce visibilities. Wind gusts to 30
knots will also be possible. In northern WY showers and storms
will be more isolated with gusty wind the main threat. Storms look
to be a little more numerous from Buffalo to Casper this afternoon
and evening where higher dewpoints will reside. Showers and storms
will decrease after 02z to isolated activity by 06z. &&

.FIRE WEATHER...

With flow turning easterly across the area today, fire danger should
decrease somewhat. Most areas will see isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening although some
showers will linger into late Wednesday night as well. A few
stronger storms are possible north and east of a line from Cody to
Casper with any severe thunderstorms mainly in Johnson County.
Mixing should be generally good outside of any precipitation. Wind
should also be lighter than yesterday outside of any
thunderstorms.
&&

.RIW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hattings
LONG TERM...Skrbac
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...Hattings




000
FXUS65 KRIW 290839
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
239 AM MDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...Wednesday through Friday night

The active pattern looks to continue through much of the short
range. As of right now the radar looks fairly quiet and this should
be the case through most of the morning. A weak boundary slash cold
front will drop southward across the area and help to enhance
easterly flow today. This will bring in more moisture that will lead
to another round of showers and thunderstorms. As for the chance of
stronger thunderstorms, the Storm Prediction Center has a marginal
risk area in approximately the same place as on Tuesday. Severe
parameters are not quite as high as yesterday, but still decent
though. For now, we will stick to the small hail and gusty wind
wording. Again, the best chance of any severe thunderstorms would be
similar to Tuesday, Johnson and eastern Natrona Counties. The day
shift may want to add stronger wording if future outlooks back the
slight risk area into the County Warning area.  With higher
precipitable water values, there will be less of a chance of dry
storms however.

And interesting scenario tonight as a plume of monsoonal moisture
surges into the area. The NAM shows precipitable water values rising
to over an inch across much of the area. Both the NAM and GFS show
some precipitation continuing overnight. Continuity had this
represented fairly well so we made few changes. The area of
steadier precipitation differs however so we kept POPS generic.

The main monsoonal moisture will be found over the area on
Thursday.This should lead to more cloud cover and as a result
somewhat cooler temperatures. It will also hold instability down a
bit more so the chance of stronger thunderstorms will increase. It
may increase the chance of heavy rain however. Confidence is not
strong enough to include it in the grids yet, but will have to be
looked at. Coverage of convection should shrink significantly on
Thursday night as the deepest moisture gets pushed south and east
of the County Warning Area.

On Friday, temperatures will increase as sky cover decreases. With
less moisture in the air as precipitable water values fall by about a
third of an inch , coverage of showers will also decrease as well.
For now, the slight to chance POPS look fine for most areas with the
least coverage in the Basins and the highest in the mountains and
adjacent foothills.

.LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday

Very warm to hot and generally dry period prevails through the
medium range period ridge as the ridge to the south dominates the
weather overall. There will be a general flattening of the ridge
as mean ridge axis moves from the SW U.S. to the Southern High
Plains next week. Models are showing one decent shortwave passing
across MT on Sunday which may kick up the winds across the
Absaroka front as right front quad of the jet moves just north of
the area. Have increased the winds along the Cody Foothills for
this possibility. A much more significant trough may dig into the
PacNW on Wednesday and then head towards the area Wednesday Night
or Thursday of next week. It should be quite warm/hot ahead of
this system with increased wind and fire danger followed by the
potential for strong to severe storms along the front in the
west/nw if the timing is right late Wednesday/Wed evening. Euro is
slower than the GFS this far out so we`ll see. GEM also has this
midweek trough. Otherwise, we still have a few disturbances moving
across in the general wly flow over the weekend with marginal
moisture and instability but enough for some mainly mtn
showers/tstms that will try and move onto the lower elevations
late in the afternoon or evening. Fairly dry sw flow Monday and
Tuesday with limited late day tstm chances then the hot and
potentially windy day next Wednesday with potential for strong
front approaching the nw with stronger storms.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

VFR conditions to prevail through tonight. Scattered showers and
storms will develop over southern and central WY after 19z and
continue through 02z. Local MVFR conditions will be possible in
storms with heavy rain that reduce visibilities. Wind gusts to 30
knots will also be possible. In northern WY showers and storms
will be more isolated with gusty wind the main threat. Storms look
to be a little more numerous from Buffalo to Casper this afternoon
and evening where higher dewpoints will reside. Showers and storms
will decrease after 02z to isolated activity by 06z. &&

.FIRE WEATHER...

With flow turning easterly across the area today, fire danger should
decrease somewhat. Most areas will see isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening although some
showers will linger into late Wednesday night as well. A few
stronger storms are possible north and east of a line from Cody to
Casper with any severe thunderstorms mainly in Johnson County.
Mixing should be generally good outside of any precipitation. Wind
should also be lighter than yesterday outside of any
thunderstorms.
&&

.RIW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hattings
LONG TERM...Skrbac
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...Hattings




000
FXUS63 KUNR 290749
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
149 AM MDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Thursday Night)
Issued at 146 AM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

With high pressure over the Four Corners, upper ridge
covers the western states, putting the northern plains in continued
northwest flow. Next upper wave to affect the region is over
northern MT. There are a few clouds across northeastern WY...and
some weak storms over northwestern SD. Winds are light and variable,
and temps are in the 50s and 60s.

Weak upper wave will move over the northern Rockies today. At the
surface, easterly flow will continue to advect in moist air with
upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints. MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg will
develop across the area this afternoon, as well as 0-6 km shear
around 50 kts. Conditions look similar to yesterday, except for
slightly less instability and shear. Also similar to yesterday,
hi-res convective models differ in timing/location/mode...agreeing
only that there will be storms somewhere. Nonetheless, conditions
are favorable for large hail and damaging winds again today. Highs
will be in the 80s.

Tonight, a Canadian low pressure system will drag a cold front
through the region, and high pressure will begin to settle into the
northern plains. Return flow will develop over the southwestern CWA,
resulting in some weak instability there. Decent shear will aid in
thunderstorm development along and south of the front, while dry
conditions are expected across much of the western SD plains. Highs
Thursday will be cooler, around 80.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Through Tuesday)
Issued at 146 AM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

West to northwest upper flow will continue through the
extended period with the upper ridge to the west flattening and the
flow becoming more zonal for the beginning of next week. Relatively
moist southeasterly flow will prevail at the surface. A series of
upper level disturbances will combine with the persistent flow of
low and mid level moisture to aid in the development of diurnal
convection over various parts of the forecast area each day. On most
days the coverage will be limited, with only isolated to scattered
thunderstorms. Deep layer shear will support the threat of severe
storms, however the general lack of strong upper level forcing will
keep the coverage of severe storms limited. Slightly cooler than
average temperatures will occur on Friday, then temperatures will
warm through the weekend, becoming around 10 degrees warmer than
average for the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued At 146 AM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will occur over
parts of northwestern South Dakota this morning. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening with some
severe thunderstorms, with large hail and damaging wind gusts
possible. VFR conditions will prevail through the period except for
local MVFR conditions possible near any thunderstorms.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pojorlie
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10




000
FXUS65 KRIW 290441
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
1041 PM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday (Issued at 303 PM MDT)

Convection across the extreme east are trying to intensify in the
better moisture/instability, but are marginal at best right now.
Had a wind gust of 64 mph at Hiland which prompted the current
severe thunderstorm warning for Natrona County. However overall
storm do not look to be impressive, but large temp/dewpt spreads
could cause isolated dry microburst. The main severe weather
threat should end around 6 pm as the energy begins to shift away
from the area. There will be still isolated thunderstorms in the
area after 6 pm...but the intensity will be less...and much of
the activity should be gone by 9 pm. Will keep severe wording for
large hail/damaging winds across Johnson and extreme eastern
Natrona County thru 6 pm...but elsewhere the main hazard will be
very gusty winds with an inverted V- soundings in place.

On Wednesday and Thursday, the strong upper level ridge over the
Four Corners Region will gradually weaken with the northern
periphery of the monsoonal moisture overspreading the forecast area.
At the same time, a strong shortwave trough pushing south/southeast
out of Manitoba into the Upper Midwest will send a backdoor cold
front into the area Wednesday night/Thursday reinforcing a weak
frontal boundary already in place east of the Divide. Precipitable
water values that have been between 0.25 and 0.50 Monday and Tuesday
will increase to between 0.50 and 0.75 inches Wednesday and Thursday
with slightly better values east of the Divide Thursday as a more
substantial moist east/southeast flow develops in wake of the
backdoor cold front. Isolated to locally scattered convection is
expected both days across much if not all of the area with an
emphasis east of the Divide. The convection will linger well into
the night with the monsoonal moisture pushing into the area.

Much of the same on Friday...except for slightly warmer temperatures
and perhaps a bit less convection as the low level easterly flow is
not as strong. However still isolated to locally scattered.

.LONG TERM...Friday night Through Tuesday

Models similar with the overall evolution of the synoptic pattern
during the extended period. However, there are significant
differences from yesterday`s model runs compared to today`s
regarding the shortwave for Independence Day. Relatively flat,
zonal flow expected Saturday and Sunday ahead of developing upper
low in the Pacific Northwest. It will be difficult to time
embedded disturbances in the flow, but 700-500mb layer moisture
shows that Saturday may be the best day for more widespread weak
convection during the 3-day holiday weekend. Convection will be
diurnally and terrain driven. It appears warmer and drier for
Sunday, with convection again mainly confined to the higher terrain.
It still looks warm, windy, and dry for Independence Day, but both
the ECMWF and GFS are not nearly as far south with the upper low
late Monday. Instead of swinging through Montana, it now appears
that the low will remain over Alberta and Saskatchewan. ECMWF has
even slowed the forward progression by about 24 hours. So, expect
the flow to back to the southwest with increasing wind speeds
Independence Day but it may not be quite like what we saw last
Friday. Fire danger will certainly be up as a result of the dry
and windy conditions, coupled with temperatures 5-10F above
normal. With track of the upper low so far to our north, see
little chance of a weak front sliding south and only slightly
lower wind speeds for Tuesday. Therefore, would expect the warm,
windy, and dry trend to persist into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR conditions to prevail through Wednesday night. Scattered showers
and storms will develop over southern and central WY after 19z and
continue through 02z Thurs. Local MVFR conditions will be possible
in storms with heavy rain that reduce vsbys. Wind gusts to 30 knots
will also be possible. In northern WY showers and storms will be
more isolated with gusty wind to 35 knots the main threat. Storms
look to be a little more numerous from Buffalo to Casper Wed
afternoon and evening where higher dewpoints will reside. Showers
and storms will decrease after 02z Thurs to isolated activity
through 06z Thurs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Showers and thunderstorms will exit from west to east late this
afternoon and evening with some strong thunderstorms over Johnson
and Natrona Counties. Trend for Wednesday and Thursday will be
slightly cooler temperatures, higher RH with isolated to locally
scattered thunderstorms each day. A cold front moving from northeast
to southwest is expected to push across the region Wednesday night
and Thursday with surface winds in most places being northerly or
easterly. Thunderstorms will be mainly wet east, and more dry west
of the Divide.  Sunday into the Fourth of July looks to turn very
warm to hot, mainly dry and breezy to windy.

&&

.RIW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WM
LONG TERM...CNJ
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...WM




000
FXUS63 KUNR 290441
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1041 PM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 616 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been cancelled for western SD
and all but Campbell County in northeastern WY (although that
might be able to be dropped in an hour). Have kept the watch going
for south-central SD, but suspect that might be able to be dropped
in an hour or so too based on boundary layer stabilization.

Otherwise, there still is the potential for additional storms to
develop overnight as a series of short-wave troughs move east
across Montana and there is some modest low-level theta-E
advection.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 255 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Current surface analysis shows low pressure over northeast WY,
with frontal boundary extending south across eastern WY and the
lee of the CO Rockies. Upper level analysis shows high pressure
centered over eastern UT, with ridge extending north across the
Northern Rockies. Weak shortwave noted on water vapor imagery
crossing southeast MT and eastern WY, moving southeast through our
area late this afternoon and evening. Instability is rather strong
to the east of the boundary, with cape values of 2000 to 3000 j/kg
currently from far northeast WY to southwest SD. A few storms
developed over the Black Hills around midday, but struggled to
move off the hills with strong cap in place. Cap is eroding now
across the plains and more robust storms are developing across
northeast WY ahead of the shortwave. Temps are in the 80s to
around 90 degrees with southeasterly winds at most locations,
especially to the east of the boundary.

Active weather is expected across a good portion of the cwa over the
next few hours, especially from northeast WY through southwest SD.
Strong to severe storms can be expected with large hail and strong
wind gusts the main threats. An isolated tornado cannot totally be
ruled out, but the threat looks to be rather low with low level
shear on the weaker side. The stronger storms should shift toward
southern portions of northeast WY and southwest SD by early evening,
with most of the stronger activity moving south-southeast out of the
cwa by mid evening. Isolated showers and storms will likely linger
across the area overnight, especially across southern SD. Lows
will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Wednesday will see more showers and thunderstorms across the area,
mainly during the afternoon and evening hours, as another shortwave
rotates across the area. At this point, the threat for severe storms
looks to shift a bit further south, but will still cover most of the
Black Hills area and much of the southwest SD plains. Hail and wind
will be the main threats again. Temps will be a bit cooler, with
highs mostly in the 80s across the plains, 70s in the Black Hills.
Activity should become more isolated again overnight, with lows in
the mid 50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Progressive westerly to northwesterly upper level flow will
continue through the extended period with relatively moist
southeasterly upslope flow at the lower levels. As a series of
disturbances push through the area, the persistent flow of low/mid
level moisture will aid in the development of diurnal convection
nearly every day. Most days the coverage will be limited, with
only isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Deep layer shear aloft
will support the threat of severe storms; however, the lack of
strong upper level forcing will keep the coverage of severe storms
limited. Temperatures will remain slightly warmer than average,
with highs mainly in the 80s through the weekend leading into a
more significant warm-up early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued At 1039 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Isolated TSRA are possible overnight was unstable west-northwest
flow aloft continues. There is a chance that some low clouds will
develop over parts of the SD plains behind the departing cluster
of thunderstorms, leading to a low chance if IFR/MVFR CIGS in the
early morning. Otherwise, expect scattered TSRA to develop again
Wednesday afternoon with severe storms possible, especially from
NERN WY through SWRN SD, with local IFR conditions near any
thunderstorms.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Update...Bunkers
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...Bunkers




000
FXUS65 KCYS 290400
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1000 PM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 946 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Latest radar loop was showing some more scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms redeveloping over the area. This activity
appears to be developing near a 700mb theta ridge. Should see this
activity gradually exit the area towards daybreak. The shower
activity and left over precip. may result in some patchy fog in
the panhandle tonight. We went ahead and introduced some fog in
that area towards daybreak, after the clouds clear out.

UPDATE Issued at 814 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Latest radar loop shows the bulk of the convection east of the
forecast area. As a result, we are sending out a quick update to
cancel the Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Afternoon water vapor loop depicted the shortwave moving ESE
across eastern MT/northeast MT. This wave and upper level jetlet
was providing sufficient lift for scattered active convection
across central/eastern WY and western SD. Areas west of the Front
Range, convection was high based with threat for dry microbursts.
East of the Front Range into the plains, the environment was more
moist and unstable with dew points in the 50s and temperatures in
the 80s and low 90s generating SBCAPES of 1500-2500 j/kg. 0-6km
shear profiles were not as impressive, so main threats for plains
storms will be potential for very large hail and damaging
downburst winds. Convective mode per HRRR has been consistently
discrete cells/small clusters through early evening, then
transitioning to linear/MCS mode mid to late evening over western
NE. Regardless, it`ll be a busy afternoon/evening shift.

Convection will develop once again Wednesday afternoon and evening
with the stalled boundary along the Front Range. Not as impressive
environmental parameters as today, but still SBCAPEs ~1000-2000
j/kg and 0-6km shear ~30-40 kt suggest isolated severe threat
east of the I-25 corridor. It will be seasonably warm Wednesday
with highs in the upper 70s and 80s.

The upper ridge over the Four Corners will gradually weaken with
swath of monsoonal moisture overspreading the CWA. A potent
shortwave will track southeast into the Upper Midwest, with a
cold front pushing south and west into the CWA Wednesday night.
Precipitable water (PWAT) values are progged to increase to 0.75
to 1.25 inches Thursday with a moist post-frontal east to
southeast flow. Overall severe potential Thursday will be low with
less shear and lower CAPE values, however a few strong storms with
small hail and gusty winds will be possible. The main concern will
be locally heavy rainfall with higher PWATs and slower storm motions.
High temperatures Thursday will fall below seasonal normals with
upper 60s and 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Thursday night/Friday...Isolated to scattered evening showers and
thunderstorms Thursday night will gradually decrease in areal
coverage with the loss of daytime heating. A bit less areal coverage
of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening with less
low and mid level moisture and low level winds from the south rather
than from the more upslope easterly direction.

Saturday...Shortwave progged to be east of our counties in the
afternoon with shortwave ridging overhead. With some drying noted in
the low and mid levels and warmer temperatures aloft, only isolated
thunderstorms anticipated.

Sunday...Flow aloft becomes northwest. With relatively warm mid
level temperatures near 16 Celsius acting to limit convective
development, and limited low and mid level moisture, only isolated
afternoon and evening thunderstorms expected.

Fourth of July...Heights aloft progged to increase with even more
drying in the low and mid levels, thus thunderstorm chances look
quite meager, so this should be a nice day for outdoor activities
all day long, even in the evening hours.

Tuesday...Heights aloft decrease slightly, though with limited low
and mid level moisture, only isolated thunderstorms at best, are
anticipated.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 549 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Strong to severe TSRA currently impacting CDR, and BFF and AIA
within the hour. expect mvfr-ifr vis in +RA/SQ with gusts up to 50
KT. TSRA threat for SNY, CYS LAR and RWL more isolated until 03Z.
A repeat of MVFR to local IFR in low cigs and fog will be possible
east of the Laramie Range later tonight.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

A potent upper level disturbance interacting with a moist and
unstable environment will produce scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. Some of the storms east of the laramie range may
be severe with damaging winds and large hail. isolated to scattered
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will develop
wednesday through saturday...with dry and warm conditions sunday
and independence day.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REC
SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...MAJ
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ




000
FXUS65 KCYS 290400
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1000 PM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 946 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Latest radar loop was showing some more scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms redeveloping over the area. This activity
appears to be developing near a 700mb theta ridge. Should see this
activity gradually exit the area towards daybreak. The shower
activity and left over precip. may result in some patchy fog in
the panhandle tonight. We went ahead and introduced some fog in
that area towards daybreak, after the clouds clear out.

UPDATE Issued at 814 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Latest radar loop shows the bulk of the convection east of the
forecast area. As a result, we are sending out a quick update to
cancel the Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Afternoon water vapor loop depicted the shortwave moving ESE
across eastern MT/northeast MT. This wave and upper level jetlet
was providing sufficient lift for scattered active convection
across central/eastern WY and western SD. Areas west of the Front
Range, convection was high based with threat for dry microbursts.
East of the Front Range into the plains, the environment was more
moist and unstable with dew points in the 50s and temperatures in
the 80s and low 90s generating SBCAPES of 1500-2500 j/kg. 0-6km
shear profiles were not as impressive, so main threats for plains
storms will be potential for very large hail and damaging
downburst winds. Convective mode per HRRR has been consistently
discrete cells/small clusters through early evening, then
transitioning to linear/MCS mode mid to late evening over western
NE. Regardless, it`ll be a busy afternoon/evening shift.

Convection will develop once again Wednesday afternoon and evening
with the stalled boundary along the Front Range. Not as impressive
environmental parameters as today, but still SBCAPEs ~1000-2000
j/kg and 0-6km shear ~30-40 kt suggest isolated severe threat
east of the I-25 corridor. It will be seasonably warm Wednesday
with highs in the upper 70s and 80s.

The upper ridge over the Four Corners will gradually weaken with
swath of monsoonal moisture overspreading the CWA. A potent
shortwave will track southeast into the Upper Midwest, with a
cold front pushing south and west into the CWA Wednesday night.
Precipitable water (PWAT) values are progged to increase to 0.75
to 1.25 inches Thursday with a moist post-frontal east to
southeast flow. Overall severe potential Thursday will be low with
less shear and lower CAPE values, however a few strong storms with
small hail and gusty winds will be possible. The main concern will
be locally heavy rainfall with higher PWATs and slower storm motions.
High temperatures Thursday will fall below seasonal normals with
upper 60s and 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Thursday night/Friday...Isolated to scattered evening showers and
thunderstorms Thursday night will gradually decrease in areal
coverage with the loss of daytime heating. A bit less areal coverage
of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening with less
low and mid level moisture and low level winds from the south rather
than from the more upslope easterly direction.

Saturday...Shortwave progged to be east of our counties in the
afternoon with shortwave ridging overhead. With some drying noted in
the low and mid levels and warmer temperatures aloft, only isolated
thunderstorms anticipated.

Sunday...Flow aloft becomes northwest. With relatively warm mid
level temperatures near 16 Celsius acting to limit convective
development, and limited low and mid level moisture, only isolated
afternoon and evening thunderstorms expected.

Fourth of July...Heights aloft progged to increase with even more
drying in the low and mid levels, thus thunderstorm chances look
quite meager, so this should be a nice day for outdoor activities
all day long, even in the evening hours.

Tuesday...Heights aloft decrease slightly, though with limited low
and mid level moisture, only isolated thunderstorms at best, are
anticipated.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 549 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Strong to severe TSRA currently impacting CDR, and BFF and AIA
within the hour. expect mvfr-ifr vis in +RA/SQ with gusts up to 50
KT. TSRA threat for SNY, CYS LAR and RWL more isolated until 03Z.
A repeat of MVFR to local IFR in low cigs and fog will be possible
east of the Laramie Range later tonight.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

A potent upper level disturbance interacting with a moist and
unstable environment will produce scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. Some of the storms east of the laramie range may
be severe with damaging winds and large hail. isolated to scattered
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will develop
wednesday through saturday...with dry and warm conditions sunday
and independence day.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REC
SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...MAJ
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ




000
FXUS65 KCYS 290215
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
815 PM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 814 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Latest radar loop shows the bulk of the convection east of the
forecast area. As a result, we are sending out a quick update to
cancel the Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Afternoon water vapor loop depicted the shortwave moving ESE
across eastern MT/northeast MT. This wave and upper level jetlet
was providing sufficient lift for scattered active convection
across central/eastern WY and western SD. Areas west of the Front
Range, convection was high based with threat for dry microbursts.
East of the Front Range into the plains, the environment was more
moist and unstable with dew points in the 50s and temperatures in
the 80s and low 90s generating SBCAPES of 1500-2500 j/kg. 0-6km
shear profiles were not as impressive, so main threats for plains
storms will be potential for very large hail and damaging
downburst winds. Convective mode per HRRR has been consistently
discrete cells/small clusters through early evening, then
transitioning to linear/MCS mode mid to late evening over western
NE. Regardless, it`ll be a busy afternoon/evening shift.

Convection will develop once again Wednesday afternoon and evening
with the stalled boundary along the Front Range. Not as impressive
environmental parameters as today, but still SBCAPEs ~1000-2000
j/kg and 0-6km shear ~30-40 kt suggest isolated severe threat
east of the I-25 corridor. It will be seasonably warm Wednesday
with highs in the upper 70s and 80s.

The upper ridge over the Four Corners will gradually weaken with
swath of monsoonal moisture overspreading the CWA. A potent
shortwave will track southeast into the Upper Midwest, with a
cold front pushing south and west into the CWA Wednesday night.
Precipitable water (PWAT) values are progged to increase to 0.75
to 1.25 inches Thursday with a moist post-frontal east to
southeast flow. Overall severe potential Thursday will be low with
less shear and lower CAPE values, however a few strong storms with
small hail and gusty winds will be possible. The main concern will
be locally heavy rainfall with higher PWATs and slower storm motions.
High temperatures Thursday will fall below seasonal normals with
upper 60s and 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Thursday night/Friday...Isolated to scattered evening showers and
thunderstorms Thursday night will gradually decrease in areal
coverage with the loss of daytime heating. A bit less areal coverage
of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening with less
low and mid level moisture and low level winds from the south rather
than from the more upslope easterly direction.

Saturday...Shortwave progged to be east of our counties in the
afternoon with shortwave ridging overhead. With some drying noted in
the low and mid levels and warmer temperatures aloft, only isolated
thunderstorms anticipated.

Sunday...Flow aloft becomes northwest. With relatively warm mid
level temperatures near 16 Celsius acting to limit convective
development, and limited low and mid level moisture, only isolated
afternoon and evening thunderstorms expected.

Fourth of July...Heights aloft progged to increase with even more
drying in the low and mid levels, thus thunderstorm chances look
quite meager, so this should be a nice day for outdoor activities
all day long, even in the evening hours.

Tuesday...Heights aloft decrease slightly, though with limited low
and mid level moisture, only isolated thunderstorms at best, are
anticipated.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 549 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Strong to severe TSRA currently impacting CDR, and BFF and AIA
within the hour. expect mvfr-ifr vis in +RA/SQ with gusts up to 50
KT. TSRA threat for SNY, CYS LAR and RWL more isolated until 03Z.
A repeat of MVFR to local IFR in low cigs and fog will be possible
east of the Laramie Range later tonight.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

A potent upper level disturbance interacting with a moist and
unstable environment will produce scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. Some of the storms east of the laramie range may
be severe with damaging winds and large hail. isolated to scattered
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will develop
wednesday through saturday...with dry and warm conditions sunday
and independence day.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REC
SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...MAJ
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ




000
FXUS63 KUNR 290019
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
619 PM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 616 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been cancelled for western SD
and all but Campbell County in northeastern WY (although that
might be able to be dropped in an hour). Have kept the watch going
for south-central SD, but suspect that might be able to be dropped
in an hour or so too based on boundary layer stabilization.

Otherwise, there still is the potential for additional storms to
develop overnight as a series of short-wave troughs move east
across Montana and there is some modest low-level theta-E
advection.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 255 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Current surface analysis shows low pressure over northeast WY,
with frontal boundary extending south across eastern WY and the
lee of the CO Rockies. Upper level analysis shows high pressure
centered over eastern UT, with ridge extending north across the
Northern Rockies. Weak shortwave noted on water vapor imagery
crossing southeast MT and eastern WY, moving southeast through our
area late this afternoon and evening. Instability is rather strong
to the east of the boundary, with cape values of 2000 to 3000 j/kg
currently from far northeast WY to southwest SD. A few storms
developed over the Black Hills around midday, but struggled to
move off the hills with strong cap in place. Cap is eroding now
across the plains and more robust storms are developing across
northeast WY ahead of the shortwave. Temps are in the 80s to
around 90 degrees with southeasterly winds at most locations,
especially to the east of the boundary.

Active weather is expected across a good portion of the cwa over the
next few hours, especially from northeast WY through southwest SD.
Strong to severe storms can be expected with large hail and strong
wind gusts the main threats. An isolated tornado cannot totally be
ruled out, but the threat looks to be rather low with low level
shear on the weaker side. The stronger storms should shift toward
southern portions of northeast WY and southwest SD by early evening,
with most of the stronger activity moving south-southeast out of the
cwa by mid evening. Isolated showers and storms will likely linger
across the area overnight, especially across southern SD. Lows
will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Wednesday will see more showers and thunderstorms across the area,
mainly during the afternoon and evening hours, as another shortwave
rotates across the area. At this point, the threat for severe storms
looks to shift a bit further south, but will still cover most of the
Black Hills area and much of the southwest SD plains. Hail and wind
will be the main threats again. Temps will be a bit cooler, with
highs mostly in the 80s across the plains, 70s in the Black Hills.
Activity should become more isolated again overnight, with lows in
the mid 50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Progressive westerly to northwesterly upper level flow will
continue through the extended period with relatively moist
southeasterly upslope flow at the lower levels. As a series of
disturbances push through the area, the persistent flow of low/mid
level moisture will aid in the development of diurnal convection
nearly every day. Most days the coverage will be limited, with
only isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Deep layer shear aloft
will support the threat of severe storms; however, the lack of
strong upper level forcing will keep the coverage of severe storms
limited. Temperatures will remain slightly warmer than average,
with highs mainly in the 80s through the weekend leading into a
more significant warm-up early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued At 527 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue this evening,
some of which will be severe. Isolated thunderstorms are expected
elsewhere overnight, with another round of scattered thunderstorms
Wednesday afternoon (some severe). Some MVFR ceilings may develop
over south-central SD toward 12z, with local IFR conditions near
any thunderstorms.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Update...Bunkers
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...Bunkers




000
FXUS65 KCYS 282353
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
553 PM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Afternoon water vapor loop depicted the shortwave moving ESE
across eastern MT/northeast MT. This wave and upper level jetlet
was providing sufficient lift for scattered active convection
across central/eastern WY and western SD. Areas west of the Front
Range, convection was high based with threat for dry microbursts.
East of the Front Range into the plains, the environment was more
moist and unstable with dew points in the 50s and temperatures in
the 80s and low 90s generating SBCAPES of 1500-2500 j/kg. 0-6km
shear profiles were not as impressive, so main threats for plains
storms will be potential for very large hail and damaging
downburst winds. Convective mode per HRRR has been consistently
discrete cells/small clusters through early evening, then
transitioning to linear/MCS mode mid to late evening over western
NE. Regardless, it`ll be a busy afternoon/evening shift.

Convection will develop once again Wednesday afternoon and evening
with the stalled boundary along the Front Range. Not as impressive
environmental parameters as today, but still SBCAPEs ~1000-2000
j/kg and 0-6km shear ~30-40 kt suggest isolated severe threat
east of the I-25 corridor. It will be seasonably warm Wednesday
with highs in the upper 70s and 80s.

The upper ridge over the Four Corners will gradually weaken with
swath of monsoonal moisture overspreading the CWA. A potent
shortwave will track southeast into the Upper Midwest, with a
cold front pushing south and west into the CWA Wednesday night.
Precipitable water (PWAT) values are progged to increase to 0.75
to 1.25 inches Thursday with a moist post-frontal east to
southeast flow. Overall severe potential Thursday will be low with
less shear and lower CAPE values, however a few strong storms with
small hail and gusty winds will be possible. The main concern will
be locally heavy rainfall with higher PWATs and slower storm motions.
High temperatures Thursday will fall below seasonal normals with
upper 60s and 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Thursday night/Friday...Isolated to scattered evening showers and
thunderstorms Thursday night will gradually decrease in areal
coverage with the loss of daytime heating. A bit less areal coverage
of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening with less
low and mid level moisture and low level winds from the south rather
than from the more upslope easterly direction.

Saturday...Shortwave progged to be east of our counties in the
afternoon with shortwave ridging overhead. With some drying noted in
the low and mid levels and warmer temperatures aloft, only isolated
thunderstorms anticipated.

Sunday...Flow aloft becomes northwest. With relatively warm mid
level temperatures near 16 Celsius acting to limit convective
development, and limited low and mid level moisture, only isolated
afternoon and evening thunderstorms expected.

Fourth of July...Heights aloft progged to increase with even more
drying in the low and mid levels, thus thunderstorm chances look
quite meager, so this should be a nice day for outdoor activities
all day long, even in the evening hours.

Tuesday...Heights aloft decrease slightly, though with limited low
and mid level moisture, only isolated thunderstorms at best, are
anticipated.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 549 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Strong to severe TSRA currently impacting CDR, and BFF and AIA
within the hour. expect mvfr-ifr vis in +RA/SQ with gusts up to 50
KT. TSRA threat for SNY, CYS LAR and RWL more isolated until 03Z.
A repeat of MVFR to local IFR in low cigs and fog will be possible
east of the Laramie Range later tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

A potent upper level disturbance interacting with a moist and
unstable environment will produce scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. Some of the storms east of the laramie range may
be severe with damaging winds and large hail. isolated to scattered
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will develop
wednesday through saturday...with dry and warm conditions sunday
and independence day.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...MAJ
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ




000
FXUS65 KCYS 282353
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
553 PM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Afternoon water vapor loop depicted the shortwave moving ESE
across eastern MT/northeast MT. This wave and upper level jetlet
was providing sufficient lift for scattered active convection
across central/eastern WY and western SD. Areas west of the Front
Range, convection was high based with threat for dry microbursts.
East of the Front Range into the plains, the environment was more
moist and unstable with dew points in the 50s and temperatures in
the 80s and low 90s generating SBCAPES of 1500-2500 j/kg. 0-6km
shear profiles were not as impressive, so main threats for plains
storms will be potential for very large hail and damaging
downburst winds. Convective mode per HRRR has been consistently
discrete cells/small clusters through early evening, then
transitioning to linear/MCS mode mid to late evening over western
NE. Regardless, it`ll be a busy afternoon/evening shift.

Convection will develop once again Wednesday afternoon and evening
with the stalled boundary along the Front Range. Not as impressive
environmental parameters as today, but still SBCAPEs ~1000-2000
j/kg and 0-6km shear ~30-40 kt suggest isolated severe threat
east of the I-25 corridor. It will be seasonably warm Wednesday
with highs in the upper 70s and 80s.

The upper ridge over the Four Corners will gradually weaken with
swath of monsoonal moisture overspreading the CWA. A potent
shortwave will track southeast into the Upper Midwest, with a
cold front pushing south and west into the CWA Wednesday night.
Precipitable water (PWAT) values are progged to increase to 0.75
to 1.25 inches Thursday with a moist post-frontal east to
southeast flow. Overall severe potential Thursday will be low with
less shear and lower CAPE values, however a few strong storms with
small hail and gusty winds will be possible. The main concern will
be locally heavy rainfall with higher PWATs and slower storm motions.
High temperatures Thursday will fall below seasonal normals with
upper 60s and 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Thursday night/Friday...Isolated to scattered evening showers and
thunderstorms Thursday night will gradually decrease in areal
coverage with the loss of daytime heating. A bit less areal coverage
of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening with less
low and mid level moisture and low level winds from the south rather
than from the more upslope easterly direction.

Saturday...Shortwave progged to be east of our counties in the
afternoon with shortwave ridging overhead. With some drying noted in
the low and mid levels and warmer temperatures aloft, only isolated
thunderstorms anticipated.

Sunday...Flow aloft becomes northwest. With relatively warm mid
level temperatures near 16 Celsius acting to limit convective
development, and limited low and mid level moisture, only isolated
afternoon and evening thunderstorms expected.

Fourth of July...Heights aloft progged to increase with even more
drying in the low and mid levels, thus thunderstorm chances look
quite meager, so this should be a nice day for outdoor activities
all day long, even in the evening hours.

Tuesday...Heights aloft decrease slightly, though with limited low
and mid level moisture, only isolated thunderstorms at best, are
anticipated.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 549 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Strong to severe TSRA currently impacting CDR, and BFF and AIA
within the hour. expect mvfr-ifr vis in +RA/SQ with gusts up to 50
KT. TSRA threat for SNY, CYS LAR and RWL more isolated until 03Z.
A repeat of MVFR to local IFR in low cigs and fog will be possible
east of the Laramie Range later tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

A potent upper level disturbance interacting with a moist and
unstable environment will produce scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. Some of the storms east of the laramie range may
be severe with damaging winds and large hail. isolated to scattered
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will develop
wednesday through saturday...with dry and warm conditions sunday
and independence day.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...MAJ
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ




000
FXUS63 KUNR 282331
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
531 PM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 255 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Current surface analysis shows low pressure over northeast WY,
with frontal boundary extending south across eastern WY and the
lee of the CO Rockies. Upper level analysis shows high pressure
centered over eastern UT, with ridge extending north across the
Northern Rockies. Weak shortwave noted on water vapor imagery
crossing southeast MT and eastern WY, moving southeast through our
area late this afternoon and evening. Instability is rather strong
to the east of the boundary, with cape values of 2000 to 3000 j/kg
currently from far northeast WY to southwest SD. A few storms
developed over the Black Hills around midday, but struggled to
move off the hills with strong cap in place. Cap is eroding now
across the plains and more robust storms are developing across
northeast WY ahead of the shortwave. Temps are in the 80s to
around 90 degrees with southeasterly winds at most locations,
especially to the east of the boundary.

Active weather is expected across a good portion of the cwa over the
next few hours, especially from northeast WY through southwest SD.
Strong to severe storms can be expected with large hail and strong
wind gusts the main threats. An isolated tornado cannot totally be
ruled out, but the threat looks to be rather low with low level
shear on the weaker side. The stronger storms should shift toward
southern portions of northeast WY and southwest SD by early evening,
with most of the stronger activity moving south-southeast out of the
cwa by mid evening. Isolated showers and storms will likely linger
across the area overnight, especially across southern SD. Lows
will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Wednesday will see more showers and thunderstorms across the area,
mainly during the afternoon and evening hours, as another shortwave
rotates across the area. At this point, the threat for severe storms
looks to shift a bit further south, but will still cover most of the
Black Hills area and much of the southwest SD plains. Hail and wind
will be the main threats again. Temps will be a bit cooler, with
highs mostly in the 80s across the plains, 70s in the Black Hills.
Activity should become more isolated again overnight, with lows in
the mid 50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Progressive westerly to northwesterly upper level flow will
continue through the extended period with relatively moist
southeasterly upslope flow at the lower levels. As a series of
disturbances push through the area, the persistent flow of low/mid
level moisture will aid in the development of diurnal convection
nearly every day. Most days the coverage will be limited, with
only isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Deep layer shear aloft
will support the threat of severe storms; however, the lack of
strong upper level forcing will keep the coverage of severe storms
limited. Temperatures will remain slightly warmer than average,
with highs mainly in the 80s through the weekend leading into a
more significant warm-up early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued At 527 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue this evening,
some of which will be severe. Isolated thunderstorms are expected
elsewhere overnight, with another round of scattered thunderstorms
Wednesday afternoon (some severe). Some MVFR ceilings may develop
over south-central SD toward 12z, with local IFR conditions near
any thunderstorms.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...Bunkers




000
FXUS63 KUNR 282331
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
531 PM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 255 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Current surface analysis shows low pressure over northeast WY,
with frontal boundary extending south across eastern WY and the
lee of the CO Rockies. Upper level analysis shows high pressure
centered over eastern UT, with ridge extending north across the
Northern Rockies. Weak shortwave noted on water vapor imagery
crossing southeast MT and eastern WY, moving southeast through our
area late this afternoon and evening. Instability is rather strong
to the east of the boundary, with cape values of 2000 to 3000 j/kg
currently from far northeast WY to southwest SD. A few storms
developed over the Black Hills around midday, but struggled to
move off the hills with strong cap in place. Cap is eroding now
across the plains and more robust storms are developing across
northeast WY ahead of the shortwave. Temps are in the 80s to
around 90 degrees with southeasterly winds at most locations,
especially to the east of the boundary.

Active weather is expected across a good portion of the cwa over the
next few hours, especially from northeast WY through southwest SD.
Strong to severe storms can be expected with large hail and strong
wind gusts the main threats. An isolated tornado cannot totally be
ruled out, but the threat looks to be rather low with low level
shear on the weaker side. The stronger storms should shift toward
southern portions of northeast WY and southwest SD by early evening,
with most of the stronger activity moving south-southeast out of the
cwa by mid evening. Isolated showers and storms will likely linger
across the area overnight, especially across southern SD. Lows
will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Wednesday will see more showers and thunderstorms across the area,
mainly during the afternoon and evening hours, as another shortwave
rotates across the area. At this point, the threat for severe storms
looks to shift a bit further south, but will still cover most of the
Black Hills area and much of the southwest SD plains. Hail and wind
will be the main threats again. Temps will be a bit cooler, with
highs mostly in the 80s across the plains, 70s in the Black Hills.
Activity should become more isolated again overnight, with lows in
the mid 50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Progressive westerly to northwesterly upper level flow will
continue through the extended period with relatively moist
southeasterly upslope flow at the lower levels. As a series of
disturbances push through the area, the persistent flow of low/mid
level moisture will aid in the development of diurnal convection
nearly every day. Most days the coverage will be limited, with
only isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Deep layer shear aloft
will support the threat of severe storms; however, the lack of
strong upper level forcing will keep the coverage of severe storms
limited. Temperatures will remain slightly warmer than average,
with highs mainly in the 80s through the weekend leading into a
more significant warm-up early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued At 527 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue this evening,
some of which will be severe. Isolated thunderstorms are expected
elsewhere overnight, with another round of scattered thunderstorms
Wednesday afternoon (some severe). Some MVFR ceilings may develop
over south-central SD toward 12z, with local IFR conditions near
any thunderstorms.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...Bunkers




000
FXUS65 KCYS 282136
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
336 PM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Afternoon water vapor loop depicted the shortwave moving ESE
across eastern MT/northeast MT. This wave and upper level jetlet
was providing sufficient lift for scattered active convection
across central/eastern WY and western SD. Areas west of the Front
Range, convection was high based with threat for dry microbursts.
East of the Front Range into the plains, the environment was more
moist and unstable with dew points in the 50s and temperatures in
the 80s and low 90s generating SBCAPES of 1500-2500 j/kg. 0-6km
shear profiles were not as impressive, so main threats for plains
storms will be potential for very large hail and damaging
downburst winds. Convective mode per HRRR has been consistently
discrete cells/small clusters through early evening, then
transitioning to linear/MCS mode mid to late evening over western
NE. Regardless, it`ll be a busy afternoon/evening shift.

Convection will develop once again Wednesday afternoon and evening
with the stalled boundary along the Front Range. Not as impressive
environmental parameters as today, but still SBCAPEs ~1000-2000
j/kg and 0-6km shear ~30-40 kt suggest isolated severe threat
east of the I-25 corridor. It will be seasonably warm Wednesday
with highs in the upper 70s and 80s.

The upper ridge over the Four Corners will gradually weaken with
swath of monsoonal moisture overspreading the CWA. A potent
shortwave will track southeast into the Upper Midwest, with a
cold front pushing south and west into the CWA Wednesday night.
Precipitable water (PWAT) values are progged to increase to 0.75
to 1.25 inches Thursday with a moist post-frontal east to
southeast flow. Overall severe potential Thursday will be low with
less shear and lower CAPE values, however a few strong storms with
small hail and gusty winds will be possible. The main concern will
be locally heavy rainfall with higher PWATs and slower storm motions.
High temperatures Thursday will fall below seasonal normals with
upper 60s and 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Thursday night/Friday...Isolated to scattered evening showers and
thunderstorms Thursday night will gradually decrease in areal
coverage with the loss of daytime heating. A bit less areal coverage
of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening with less
low and mid level moisture and low level winds from the south rather
than from the more upslope easterly direction.

Saturday...Shortwave progged to be east of our counties in the
afternoon with shortwave ridging overhead. With some drying noted in
the low and mid levels and warmer temperatures aloft, only isolated
thunderstorms anticipated.

Sunday...Flow aloft becomes northwest. With relatively warm mid
level temperatures near 16 Celsius acting to limit convective
development, and limited low and mid level moisture, only isolated
afternoon and evening thunderstorms expected.

Fourth of July...Heights aloft progged to increase with even more
drying in the low and mid levels, thus thunderstorm chances look
quite meager, so this should be a nice day for outdoor activities
all day long, even in the evening hours.

Tuesday...Heights aloft decrease slightly, though with limited low
and mid level moisture, only isolated thunderstorms at best, are
anticipated.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1124 AM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Wyoming TAFS...VFR at Rawlins and Laramie with isolated
thunderstorms from 21Z to 02Z. At Cheyenne, VFR prevails with
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms from 21Z to 02Z
producing wind gusts to 45 knots and localized MVFR. MVFR in
fog and low clouds at Cheyenne from 10Z to 15Z.

Nebraska TAFS...VFR prevails. Scattered thunderstorms, some
possibly severe, between 20Z and 06Z, with strongest storms
producing wind gusts in excess of 50 knots, large hail, heavy
rain and extreme turbulence under MVFR conditions. IFR in fog
and low clouds developing from 06Z to 15Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

A potent upper level disturbance interacting with a moist and
unstable environment will produce scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. Some of the storms east of the laramie range may
be severe with damaging winds and large hail. isolated to scattered
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will develop
wednesday through saturday...with dry and warm conditions sunday
and independence day.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ




000
FXUS65 KRIW 282103
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
303 PM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday

Convection across the extreme east are trying to intensify in the
better moisture/instability, but are marginal at best right now.
Had a wind gust of 64 mph at Hiland which prompted the current
severe thunderstorm warning for Natrona County. However overall
storm do not look to be impressive, but large temp/dewpt spreads
could cause isolated dry microburst. The main severe weather
threat should end around 6 pm as the energy begins to shift away
from the area. There will be still isolated thunderstorms in the
area after 6 pm...but the intensity will be less...and much of
the activity should be gone by 9 pm. Will keep severe wording for
large hail/damaging winds across Johnson and extreme eastern
Natrona County thru 6 pm...but elsewhere the main hazard will be
very gusty winds with an inverted V- soundings in place.

On Wednesday and Thursday, the strong upper level ridge over the
Four Corners Region will gradually weaken with the northern
periphery of the monsoonal moisture overspreading the forecast area.
At the same time, a strong shortwave trough pushing south/southeast
out of Manitoba into the Upper Midwest will send a backdoor cold
front into the area Wednesday night/Thursday reinforcing a weak
frontal boundary already in place east of the Divide. Precipitable
water values that have been between 0.25 and 0.50 Monday and Tuesday
will increase to between 0.50 and 0.75 inches Wednesday and Thursday
with slightly better values east of the Divide Thursday as a more
substantial moist east/southeast flow develops in wake of the
backdoor cold front. Isolated to locally scattered convection is
expected both days across much if not all of the area with an
emphasis east of the Divide. The convection will linger well into
the night with the monsoonal moisture pushing into the area.

Much of the same on Friday...except for slightly warmer temperatures
and perhaps a bit less convection as the low level easterly flow is
not as strong. However still isolated to locally scattered.

.LONG TERM...Friday night Through Tuesday

Models similar with the overall evolution of the synoptic pattern
during the extended period. However, there are significant
differences from yesterday`s model runs compared to today`s
regarding the shortwave for Independence Day. Relatively flat,
zonal flow expected Saturday and Sunday ahead of developing upper
low in the Pacific Northwest. It will be difficult to time
embedded disturbances in the flow, but 700-500mb layer moisture
shows that Saturday may be the best day for more widespread weak
convection during the 3-day holiday weekend. Convection will be
diurnally and terrain driven. It appears warmer and drier for
Sunday, with convection again mainly confined to the higher terrain.
It still looks warm, windy, and dry for Independence Day, but both
the ECMWF and GFS are not nearly as far south with the upper low
late Monday. Instead of swinging through Montana, it now appears
that the low will remain over Alberta and Saskatchewan. ECMWF has
even slowed the forward progression by about 24 hours. So, expect
the flow to back to the southwest with increasing wind speeds
Independence Day but it may not be quite like what we saw last
Friday. Fire danger will certainly be up as a result of the dry
and windy conditions, coupled with temperatures 5-10F above
normal. With track of the upper low so far to our north, see
little chance of a weak front sliding south and only slightly
lower wind speeds for Tuesday. Therefore, would expect the warm,
windy, and dry trend to persist into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

Expect conditions to remain VFR through 00Z/Thursday. The one
exception will be local MVFR with the strongest convection north and
east of a line from KCOD to KCPR through about 02Z/Wednesday and
again after 20Z/Wednesday. Shortwave now descending east-southeast
across northeast Wyoming this afternoon. Convection has fired
ahead of this feature along a line from central Johnson to
western Fremont County. Storms are moving at 30-40 mph, and
visually are not producing heavy rain. Looks as though the main
hazard will remain gusty outflow wind. Temperature-dew point spreads
still hovering around 50F. Short-range models and current
movement suggest convection will wane after 01Z-02Z/Wednesday as
shortwave tracks east away from the forecast area. Could be a few
lingering weak showers across the north half of the area through
04Z with gusty outflow wind the main hazard. Convection Wednesday
afternoon will again favor northern and eastern Wyoming to include
KCOD and KCPR. Less excited about KWRL due to distance from higher
terrain and large temperature-dew point spreads. There will be a
better chance of gusty west-southwest wind at KRKS after
20Z/Wednesday; otherwise, winds will generally be less than 12kts
at all sites.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Showers and thunderstorms will exit from west to east late this
afternoon and evening with some strong thunderstorms over Johnson
and Natrona Counties. Trend for Wednesday and Thursday will be
slightly cooler temperatures, higher RH with isolated to locally
scattered thunderstorms each day. A cold front moving from northeast
to southwest is expected to push across the region Wednesday night
and Thursday with surface winds in most places being northerly or
easterly. Thunderstorms will be mainly wet east, and more dry west
of the Divide.  Sunday into the Fourth of July looks to turn very
warm to hot, mainly dry and breezy to windy.

&&

.RIW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WM
LONG TERM...CNJ
AVIATION...CNJ
FIRE WEATHER...WM




000
FXUS63 KUNR 282055
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
255 PM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 255 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Current surface analysis shows low pressure over northeast WY,
with frontal boundary extending south across eastern WY and the
lee of the CO Rockies. Upper level analysis shows high pressure
centered over eastern UT, with ridge extending north across the
Northern Rockies. Weak shortwave noted on water vapor imagery
crossing southeast MT and eastern WY, moving southeast through our
area late this afternoon and evening. Instability is rather strong
to the east of the boundary, with cape values of 2000 to 3000 j/kg
currently from far northeast WY to southwest SD. A few storms
developed over the Black Hills around midday, but struggled to
move off the hills with strong cap in place. Cap is eroding now
across the plains and more robust storms are developing across
northeast WY ahead of the shortwave. Temps are in the 80s to
around 90 degrees with southeasterly winds at most locations,
especially to the east of the boundary.

Active weather is expected across a good portion of the cwa over the
next few hours, especially from northeast WY through southwest SD.
Strong to severe storms can be expected with large hail and strong
wind gusts the main threats. An isolated tornado cannot totally be
ruled out, but the threat looks to be rather low with low level
shear on the weaker side. The stronger storms should shift toward
southern portions of northeast WY and southwest SD by early evening,
with most of the stronger activity moving south-southeast out of the
cwa by mid evening. Isolated showers and storms will likely linger
across the area overnight, especially across southern SD. Lows
will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Wednesday will see more showers and thunderstorms across the area,
mainly during the afternoon and evening hours, as another shortwave
rotates across the area. At this point, the threat for severe storms
looks to shift a bit further south, but will still cover most of the
Black Hills area and much of the southwest SD plains. Hail and wind
will be the main threats again. Temps will be a bit cooler, with
highs mostly in the 80s across the plains, 70s in the Black Hills.
Activity should become more isolated again overnight, with lows in
the mid 50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Progressive westerly to northwesterly upper level flow will
continue through the extended period with relatively moist
southeasterly upslope flow at the lower levels. As a series of
disturbances push through the area, the persistent flow of low/mid
level moisture will aid in the development of diurnal convection
nearly every day. Most days the coverage will be limited, with
only isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Deep layer shear aloft
will support the threat of severe storms; however, the lack of
strong upper level forcing will keep the coverage of severe storms
limited. Temperatures will remain slightly warmer than average,
with highs mainly in the 80s through the weekend leading into a
more significant warm-up early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Wednesday)
Issued At 255 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Some thunderstorms may be severe this afternoon and early evening,
with large hail and damaging wind gusts. VFR conditions will
prevail through the period except for local MVFR conditions near
any thunderstorms.


&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...MLS




000
FXUS63 KUNR 281758
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1158 AM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 246 AM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Upper ridge covers the western CONUS, and next shortwave to
affect the CWA is moving through the Pacific Northwest. A few weak
showers are passing over the Hills. Satellite is showing some
clouds over north central SD, and a few storms have developed
across central SD. At the surface, winds are light and variable,
and temperatures are in the 50s to lower 60s.

Shortwave will move over the ridge and dive southeastward into the
region today. With surface high over MN, southeast winds will become
breezy, bringing moist air to the area. Highs will be in the 80s,
with dewpoints in the mid 50s to lower 60s, allowing MLCAPE to reach
1500-2500 J/kg by midday. Supercell development will be aided by
0-6 km shear around 50 kts. Hi-res convective models are in
disagreement on location/timing of storms, but convection over the
Hills as early as 18Z is possible. Scattered severe storms with
large hail and strong winds are expected through the afternoon.
Then the low-level jet increases this evening, which is expected
to help isolated storms transition into an MCS as it pushes
southeastward into NE.

Theta-e advection, along with some weak upper level divergence, may
produce some thunderstorms over MT late tonight, and track into
northwestern SD early Wednesday morning. Based on CAPE and shear,
would not rule out a strong to severe early morning storm there.
CIN would be the limiting factor.

Southeast winds Wednesday morning will become northeasterly as a
weak cool front slides through SD. Moist airmass, plenty of shear,
and weak upper forcing suggest strong to severe storms may be
possible again. However, models disagree on storm
mode/timing/location, so left somewhat broadbrushed pops for now.
Pops may be overdone in the afternoon when cap may prevent much from
developing. Highs Wednesday will be in the low to mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Through Monday)
Issued at 246 AM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Relatively moist southeasterly upslope flow will prevail during
most of the extended forecaster period with a series of
disturbances crossing the region in west to northwesterly flow
aloft. The persistent flow of low/mid level moisture will aid
diurnal convection nearly every day, although coverage will be
limited, isold-sct, most days. The fast W-NW flow aloft will
support deep layer shear through the period which will lead to at
least an isolated severe threat on most days, although the lack of
strong upper forcing will keep the coverage of severe storms
relatively limited. Temperatures will remain near or slightly
warmer than average, with highs mainly in the 80s through the
weekend leading into a more significant warm-up early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Wednesday)
Issued At 1157 AM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Some thunderstorms may be severe this afternoon and evening, with
large hail and damaging wind gusts. VFR conditions will prevail
through the period except for local MVFR conditions near any
thunderstorms.


&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pojorlie
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...MLS




000
FXUS63 KUNR 281758
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1158 AM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 246 AM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Upper ridge covers the western CONUS, and next shortwave to
affect the CWA is moving through the Pacific Northwest. A few weak
showers are passing over the Hills. Satellite is showing some
clouds over north central SD, and a few storms have developed
across central SD. At the surface, winds are light and variable,
and temperatures are in the 50s to lower 60s.

Shortwave will move over the ridge and dive southeastward into the
region today. With surface high over MN, southeast winds will become
breezy, bringing moist air to the area. Highs will be in the 80s,
with dewpoints in the mid 50s to lower 60s, allowing MLCAPE to reach
1500-2500 J/kg by midday. Supercell development will be aided by
0-6 km shear around 50 kts. Hi-res convective models are in
disagreement on location/timing of storms, but convection over the
Hills as early as 18Z is possible. Scattered severe storms with
large hail and strong winds are expected through the afternoon.
Then the low-level jet increases this evening, which is expected
to help isolated storms transition into an MCS as it pushes
southeastward into NE.

Theta-e advection, along with some weak upper level divergence, may
produce some thunderstorms over MT late tonight, and track into
northwestern SD early Wednesday morning. Based on CAPE and shear,
would not rule out a strong to severe early morning storm there.
CIN would be the limiting factor.

Southeast winds Wednesday morning will become northeasterly as a
weak cool front slides through SD. Moist airmass, plenty of shear,
and weak upper forcing suggest strong to severe storms may be
possible again. However, models disagree on storm
mode/timing/location, so left somewhat broadbrushed pops for now.
Pops may be overdone in the afternoon when cap may prevent much from
developing. Highs Wednesday will be in the low to mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Through Monday)
Issued at 246 AM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Relatively moist southeasterly upslope flow will prevail during
most of the extended forecaster period with a series of
disturbances crossing the region in west to northwesterly flow
aloft. The persistent flow of low/mid level moisture will aid
diurnal convection nearly every day, although coverage will be
limited, isold-sct, most days. The fast W-NW flow aloft will
support deep layer shear through the period which will lead to at
least an isolated severe threat on most days, although the lack of
strong upper forcing will keep the coverage of severe storms
relatively limited. Temperatures will remain near or slightly
warmer than average, with highs mainly in the 80s through the
weekend leading into a more significant warm-up early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Wednesday)
Issued At 1157 AM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Some thunderstorms may be severe this afternoon and evening, with
large hail and damaging wind gusts. VFR conditions will prevail
through the period except for local MVFR conditions near any
thunderstorms.


&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pojorlie
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...MLS




000
FXUS65 KCYS 281751 AAA
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1151 AM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1131 AM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Fog and low stratus over far southeast wyoming and southern NE
Panhandle scoured out by 9 AM. Plenty of sunshine heating the low
levels with instability increasing late this morning. Convective
temperatures should be reached in the next hour. NAM mixes out
low levels with dew points dropping into the 40s along/just east
of the Laramie Range, which would limit severe potential. Greater
instability (2000-3000 j/kg CAPE) and shear (40-50 kt 0-6 km)
will reside over western/southwest NE this afternoon/evening.
The HRRR progs a few discrete cells forming over the northern
Laramie Range and east-central WY early-mid afternoon, propagating
southeast through the early evening. Additional convection forms
over the NE Panhandle early this evening, with convective mode
transitioning from discrete supercell (large hail/damaging wind)
to linear mode (damaging wind) mid-late evening over western NE.
SPC upgraded from SLIGHT to ENHANCED SLIGHT risk for severe
thunderstorms along and east of a line from Harrison to Scottsbluff
to Kimball NE. Adjusted high temperatures, weather and PoP grids.
The chance for an isolated tornado is very low (2%) due to high
LCL heights.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 529 AM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

11-3.9um satellite imagery shows stratus and fog developing over the
S. Laramie Range and the Cheyenne Ridge early this morning. High
boundary layer moisture is progged by the majority of models through
mid-morning across this area, and even spreading up into  the
North Platte River Valley. Thus, maintained mention for patchy fog
through at least 15Z. A steady erosion of the stratus/fog will
give way to at least partly cloudy skies through early afternoon
and strong heating.

The next shortwave is still on track to round the upper level
ridge and across Wyoming today. A 65 kt H25 jet streak will move
overhead in conjunction with the shortwave, adding extra lift to
an already dynamic situation. At the surface, expecting moist
south-southeasterly flow to persist through much of the day across
the eastern plains. A slightly more backed east-southeast
component to the winds will occur across our northern tier of
counties ahead of a developing surface low over Wyoming. In
particular, high res models also show localized backing of winds
vicinity of the North Platte River valley and Pine Ridge.
Instability progs remain very high through the afternoon, perhaps
up to 3000 J/kg in some areas across the Nebraska panhandle where
dews are progged to be in the upper 50s/low 60s. 0-6 km shear will
be on the increase through the day as well due to the jet streak
moving overhead. Both NAM and GFS show shear values of 45 to 55
kts across the plains, and 25 to 35 kts out west.

With that said, expect thunderstorms to initiate over the mountains
mid-afternoon where convergence will be maximized, and also where
surface winds begin to converge in response to the developing
surfacelow. Supercellular organization is likely as storms trek
southeast across the plains based on progged instability and
shear, bringing the threat for large hail and damaging winds for
this area. Where backed surface winds occur, could see an
enhanced threat for tornadoes as 0-1 km storm relative helicity
approach favorable values in these locations through the late
afternoon and evening. However, LCL heights are progged to be
fairly high in the afternoon due to deep layer mixing which will
reduce the overall threat. Still, can`t completely rule one out.
Upscale growth into an MCS still looks probable across the
Nebraska panhandle through the evening with increasing llvl jet.
Out west, dry boundary layer conditions will keep precip to a
minimum over the mountains, however 00/06Z models are producing
more QPF than previous runs so perhaps the threat for dry
thunderstorms will be less.

T-storms look quite probable once again on Wednesday as yet another
shortwave and higher mid level moisture move in from the west.
Wednesday`s severe potential looks less tho due to scouring of
moisture from today`s activity, however some moisture return
across the panhandle could promote stronger activity here. Looks
to be more heavier rain produces and perhaps marginally severe
hail across Wyoming.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 529 AM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Monsoonal-like flow pattern will hold across the area Thursday and
Friday keeping at least sctd showers and tstms in the forecast
both days. Most widespread activity looks like it will be on
Thursday as a decent upper shortwave moves across the area while a
cool surface high settles into the northern plains and provides a
surface upslope pattern over the CWA. Milder temperatures should
reduce the overall instability with more general showers and
storms expected that day. Subtle changes occur over the weekend as
an upper ridge drifts east and over the CWA which will act to
shunt the better moisture southward so should see less convection
for Sunday and Monday. GFS particularly dry those two days while
EC still paints some QPF mainly on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1124 AM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Wyoming TAFS...VFR at Rawlins and Laramie with isolated
thunderstorms from 21Z to 02Z. At Cheyenne, VFR prevails with
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms from 21Z to 02Z
producing wind gusts to 45 knots and localized MVFR. MVFR in
fog and low clouds at Cheyenne from 10Z to 15Z.

Nebraska TAFS...VFR prevails. Scattered thunderstorms, some
possibly severe, between 20Z and 06Z, with strongest storms
producing wind gusts in excess of 50 knots, large hail, heavy
rain and extreme turbulence under MVFR conditions. IFR in fog
and low clouds developing from 06Z to 15Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 529 AM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

An active pattern will continue through the week with chances for
showers and thunderstorms expected each day. Some storms may
become severe today across the plains with large hail and damaging
winds possible. Isolated dry thunderstorms remain a possibility in
the mountains, however current model guidance shows a better
chance for wetting rains today than previous forecasts, especially
in the higher elevations. Another round of scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday, with an overall better
chance for wetting rains in the mountains. Similar conditions look
likely for Thursday.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MAJ
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...RJM




000
FXUS65 KRIW 281730
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
1130 AM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tuesday through Thursday night

We are seeing a change this morning as we transition from a quiet
pattern of the past few days into a more active one for the next
three. Today looks to be the most interesting. The ridge that has
brought the hot and dry weather of the past few days has sagged
south a bit with heights lowering a bit. In addition, a weak
shortwave will ride through the area and help to destabilize the
atmosphere a bit. There are still some questions as for how strong
the thunderstorms will get. Factors for the storms include a good
amount of shear that could bring tilted updrafts and some stronger
storms. There is also plenty of CAPE in the east with the models
showing as much as 1500 J/KG in Johnson and eastern Natrona Counties
with lifted indices down to minus 6. However, there are some
inhibiting factors. Although 500 millibar heights will be a bit
lower, they will still be over 5900 meters so it may take a while to
break. The biggest limiting factor though is moisture though. The
GFS keeps the 50 degree dew points out of the entire area except for
eastern Johnson County. The NAM backs them in a bit further but only
to around a Buffalo to Midwest line. In addition, the Storm
Prediction Center has removed the slight risk from the area. As a
result, we trimmed the severe area a bit. We followed to NAM 50
degree dew point line through most of Johnson County and eastern
Natrona Counties. Elsewhere, with drier air and inverted V
soundings, the main threat will be downburst winds and small hail
With the timing changed to a bit later, we also raised temperatures
a bit. Most of this activity should end by midnight as the wave
moves away to the east.

On Wednesday there will be more moisture over areas with better east
to southeast flow. However, there will be less shear. The Storm
Prediction Center only has general thunderstorms in the area as
well. So for now, we went with small hail and gusty winds. The
models also differ on the best coverage of the thunderstorms. The
NAM shows a surge of moisture from the south. The NAM is the driest
and has the best coverage in the north. The European has the best
coverage in the east. So as a result we kept isolated over all areas
with a better chance over Johnson County where the deeper moisture
will be.

A deeper plume of monsoonal moisture will move in for Wednesday
night into Thursday. As a result we increased some showers across
the area later Wednesday night into Thursday. This will also bring
more cloud cover which will keep temperatures a bit lower. This
looks to be the day with the best coverage of thunderstorms,
although possibly the least chance of severe storms.

.LONG TERM...Friday Through Tuesday

Warm ridge axis over the area to start the period gradually
flattens over the weekend leading to a potential shortwave passing
to the north around Monday night which may push a decent front
across the area. There looks like there will be quite a few
`ripples` in the flow but with limited moisture to work with
resulting in mainly diurnally driven convection centered on the
mountains during the afternoon with a few trying to move onto the
lower elevations by the evening hours. Airmass will then dry out
even more Monday into Tuesday with increasing sw flow Monday and a
generally dry wly flow next Tuesday. Quite warm each day,
especially Saturday through Monday when it looks like each day
will be in the 90s for most areas east of the divide with upper
70s and 80s west. The high country will be in the 70s to lower 80s
with 60s above 9500 to 10000 feet. Dry to very dry from the
weekend onward with min rh`s in the teens for most areas east of
the divide with some increase in wind on the 4th leading to
increased fire danger as combo of hot temps, breezy to windy conds
and low rh`s combine.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z Issuance/

Conditions will remain VFR through the forecast period. Shortwave
topping the ridge and moving across Montana will help to initiate
convection today, with the best coverage mainly north and east of
a line from KCOD-KCPR. Small hail and localized MVFR conditions
will be possible with the strongest storms. Best instability
will be along and east of the Bighorn Range across Johnson County
stretching into northeast Wyoming. Weaker convection will form
over the east slopes of the western/central mountains and have
left VCSH in those terminals. Showers and storms across this
region are more likely to produce gusty outflow wind to 40kts with
large temperature-dew point spreads. Convection will wane after
01Z-02Z/Wednesday as shortwave tracks east away from the forecast
area. Could be a few lingering weak showers across the far north
through 04Z with gusty outflow wind the main hazard. Gusty
west-northwest surface wind 10-20kts anticipated after 20Z at
KBPI and KPNA, while other terminals remain less than 12kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...Elevated fire conditions over southern Wyoming today...

An upper level disturbance will cross the area today and bring a
chance of mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms, most numerous
in northern and eastern sections. A gusty westerly wind and relative
humidity falling into the teens will bring elevated fire danger
across the south today. Near critical fire weather is possible in
western Natrona County but red flag conditions are not expected.
Strong to possible severe thunderstorms are possible in Natrona and
Johnson Counties this afternoon and evening. Smoke dispersal and
mixing will be fair to good east of the Divide and good to excellent
across western and southern Wyoming.
&&

.RIW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hattings
LONG TERM...PS
AVIATION...CNJ
FIRE WEATHER...Hattings




000
FXUS65 KCYS 281729
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1129 AM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 529 AM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

11-3.9um satellite imagery shows stratus and fog developing over the
S. Laramie Range and the Cheyenne Ridge early this morning. High
boundary layer moisture is progged by the majority of models through
mid-morning across this area, and even spreading up into  the
North Platte River Valley. Thus, maintained mention for patchy fog
through at least 15Z. A steady erosion of the stratus/fog will
give way to at least partly cloudy skies through early afternoon
and strong heating.

The next shortwave is still on track to round the upper level
ridge and across Wyoming today. A 65 kt H25 jetlet will move
overhead in conjunction with the shortwave, adding extra lift to
an already dynamic situation. At the sfc, expecting moist south-
southeasterly flow to persist through much of the day across the
eastern plains. A slightly more backed east-southeast component
to the winds will occur across our northern tier of counties ahead
of a developing sfc low over Wyoming. In particular, high res
models also show localized backing of winds vicinity of the North
Platte River valley and Pine Ridge. Instability progs remain very
high through the afternoon, perhaps up to 3000 J/kg in some areas
across the Nebraska panhandle where dews are progged to be in the
upper 50s/low 60s. 0-6 km shear will be on the increase through
the day as well due to the jetlet moving overhead. Both NAM and
GFS show shear values of 45 to 55 kts across the plains, and 25
to 35 kts out west.

With that said, expect thunderstorms to initiate over the mountains
mid-afternoon where convergence will be maximized, and also where
sfc winds begin to converge in response to the  developing sfc low.
Supercellular organization is likely as storms trek southeast across
the plains based on progged instability and shear, bringing the
threat for large hail and damaging winds for this area. WHere backed
sfc winds occur, could see an enhanced threat for tornadoes as
0-1 km SRH approach favorable values in these locations through
the late afternoon and evening. However, LCL heights are progged
to be fairly high in the afternoon due to deep layer mixing which
will reduce the overall threat. Still, can`t completely rule one
out. Upscale growth into an MCS still looks probable across the
Nebraska panhandle through the evening with increasing llvl jet.
Out west, dry boundary layer conditions will keep precip to a
minimum over the mountains, however 00/06Z models are producing
more QPF than previous runs so perhaps the threat for dry
thunderstorms will be less.

T-storms look quite probable once again on Wednesday as yet another
shortwave and higher midlevel moisture move in from the west.
Wednesday`s severe potential looks less tho due to scouring of
moisture from today`s activity, however some moisture return
across the panhandle could promote stronger activity here. Looks
to be more heavier rain produces and perhaps marginally severe
hail across Wyoming.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 529 AM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Monsoonal-like flow pattern will hold across the area Thursday and
Friday keeping at least sctd showers and tstms in the forecast
both days. Most widespread activity looks like it will be on
Thursday as a decent upper shortwave moves across the area while a
cool surface high settles into the northern plains and provides a
surface upslope pattern over the CWA. Milder temperatures should
reduce the overall instability with more general showers and
storms expected that day. Subtle changes occur over the weekend as
an upper ridge drifts east and over the CWA which will act to
shunt the better moisture southward so should see less convection
for Sunday and Monday. GFS particularly dry those two days while
EC still paints some QPF mainly on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1124 AM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Wyoming TAFS...VFR at Rawlins and Laramie with isolated
thunderstorms from 21Z to 02Z. At Cheyenne, VFR prevails with
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms from 21Z to 02Z
producing wind gusts to 45 knots and localized MVFR. MVFR in
fog and low clouds at Cheyenne from 10Z to 15Z.

Nebraska TAFS...VFR prevails. Scattered thunderstorms, some
possibly severe, between 20Z and 06Z, with strongest storms
producing wind gusts in excess of 50 knots, large hail, heavy
rain and extreme turbulence under MVFR conditions. IFR in fog
and low clouds developing from 06Z to 15Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 529 AM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

An active pattern will continue through the week with chances for
showers and thunderstorms expected each day. Some storms may
become severe today across the plains with large hail and damaging
winds possible. Isolated dry thunderstorms remain a possibility in
the mountains, however current model guidance shows a better
chance for wetting rains today than previous forecasts, especially
in the higher elevations. Another round of scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday, with an overall better
chance for wetting rains in the mountains. Similar conditions look
likely for Thursday.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...RJM




000
FXUS65 KCYS 281130
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
530 AM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 529 AM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

11-3.9um satellite imagery shows stratus and fog developing over the
S. Laramie Range and the Cheyenne Ridge early this morning. High
boundary layer moisture is progged by the majority of models through
mid-morning across this area, and even spreading up into  the
North Platte River Valley. Thus, maintained mention for patchy fog
through at least 15Z. A steady erosion of the stratus/fog will
give way to at least partly cloudy skies through early afternoon
and strong heating.

The next shortwave is still on track to round the upper level
ridge and across Wyoming today. A 65 kt H25 jetlet will move
overhead in conjunction with the shortwave, adding extra lift to
an already dynamic situation. At the sfc, expecting moist south-
southeasterly flow to persist through much of the day across the
eastern plains. A slightly more backed east-southeast component
to the winds will occur across our northern tier of counties ahead
of a developing sfc low over Wyoming. In particular, high res
models also show localized backing of winds vicinity of the North
Platte River valley and Pine Ridge. Instability progs remain very
high through the afternoon, perhaps up to 3000 J/kg in some areas
across the Nebraska panhandle where dews are progged to be in the
upper 50s/low 60s. 0-6 km shear will be on the increase through
the day as well due to the jetlet moving overhead. Both NAM and
GFS show shear values of 45 to 55 kts across the plains, and 25
to 35 kts out west.

With that said, expect thunderstorms to initiate over the mountains
mid-afternoon where convergence will be maximized, and also where
sfc winds begin to converge in response to the  developing sfc low.
Supercellular organization is likely as storms trek southeast across
the plains based on progged instability and shear, bringing the
threat for large hail and damaging winds for this area. WHere backed
sfc winds occur, could see an enhanced threat for tornadoes as
0-1 km SRH approach favorable values in these locations through
the late afternoon and evening. However, LCL heights are progged
to be fairly high in the afternoon due to deep layer mixing which
will reduce the overall threat. Still, can`t completely rule one
out. Upscale growth into an MCS still looks probable across the
Nebraska panhandle through the evening with increasing llvl jet.
Out west, dry boundary layer conditions will keep precip to a
minimum over the mountains, however 00/06Z models are producing
more QPF than previous runs so perhaps the threat for dry
thunderstorms will be less.

T-storms look quite probable once again on Wednesday as yet another
shortwave and higher midlevel moisture move in from the west.
Wednesday`s severe potential looks less tho due to scouring of
moisture from today`s activity, however some moisture return
across the panhandle could promote stronger activity here. Looks
to be more heavier rain produces and perhaps marginally severe
hail across Wyoming.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 529 AM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Monsoonal-like flow pattern will hold across the area Thursday and
Friday keeping at least sctd showers and tstms in the forecast
both days. Most widespread activity looks like it will be on
Thursday as a decent upper shortwave moves across the area while a
cool surface high settles into the northern plains and provides a
surface upslope pattern over the CWA. Milder temperatures should
reduce the overall instability with more general showers and
storms expected that day. Subtle changes occur over the weekend as
an upper ridge drifts east and over the CWA which will act to
shunt the better moisture southward so should see less convection
for Sunday and Monday. GFS particularly dry those two days while
EC still paints some QPF mainly on Sunday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 529 AM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Patchy low clouds and/or fog affecting mainly KCYS and KSNY early
this morning otherwise VFR expected elsewhere today and most of
tonight. Widely sctd tstms expected to form over the plains by
mid-afternoon then move out this evening with associated periods
of MVFR vsbys with them.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 529 AM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

An active pattern will continue through the week with chances for
showers and thunderstorms expected each day. Some storms may
become severe today across the plains with large hail and damaging
winds possible. Isolated dry thunderstorms remain a possibility in
the mountains, however current model guidance shows a better
chance for wetting rains today than previous forecasts, especially
in the higher elevations. Another round of scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday, with an overall better
chance for wetting rains in the mountains. Similar conditions look
likely for Thursday.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...RJM




000
FXUS65 KCYS 281130
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
530 AM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 529 AM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

11-3.9um satellite imagery shows stratus and fog developing over the
S. Laramie Range and the Cheyenne Ridge early this morning. High
boundary layer moisture is progged by the majority of models through
mid-morning across this area, and even spreading up into  the
North Platte River Valley. Thus, maintained mention for patchy fog
through at least 15Z. A steady erosion of the stratus/fog will
give way to at least partly cloudy skies through early afternoon
and strong heating.

The next shortwave is still on track to round the upper level
ridge and across Wyoming today. A 65 kt H25 jetlet will move
overhead in conjunction with the shortwave, adding extra lift to
an already dynamic situation. At the sfc, expecting moist south-
southeasterly flow to persist through much of the day across the
eastern plains. A slightly more backed east-southeast component
to the winds will occur across our northern tier of counties ahead
of a developing sfc low over Wyoming. In particular, high res
models also show localized backing of winds vicinity of the North
Platte River valley and Pine Ridge. Instability progs remain very
high through the afternoon, perhaps up to 3000 J/kg in some areas
across the Nebraska panhandle where dews are progged to be in the
upper 50s/low 60s. 0-6 km shear will be on the increase through
the day as well due to the jetlet moving overhead. Both NAM and
GFS show shear values of 45 to 55 kts across the plains, and 25
to 35 kts out west.

With that said, expect thunderstorms to initiate over the mountains
mid-afternoon where convergence will be maximized, and also where
sfc winds begin to converge in response to the  developing sfc low.
Supercellular organization is likely as storms trek southeast across
the plains based on progged instability and shear, bringing the
threat for large hail and damaging winds for this area. WHere backed
sfc winds occur, could see an enhanced threat for tornadoes as
0-1 km SRH approach favorable values in these locations through
the late afternoon and evening. However, LCL heights are progged
to be fairly high in the afternoon due to deep layer mixing which
will reduce the overall threat. Still, can`t completely rule one
out. Upscale growth into an MCS still looks probable across the
Nebraska panhandle through the evening with increasing llvl jet.
Out west, dry boundary layer conditions will keep precip to a
minimum over the mountains, however 00/06Z models are producing
more QPF than previous runs so perhaps the threat for dry
thunderstorms will be less.

T-storms look quite probable once again on Wednesday as yet another
shortwave and higher midlevel moisture move in from the west.
Wednesday`s severe potential looks less tho due to scouring of
moisture from today`s activity, however some moisture return
across the panhandle could promote stronger activity here. Looks
to be more heavier rain produces and perhaps marginally severe
hail across Wyoming.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 529 AM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Monsoonal-like flow pattern will hold across the area Thursday and
Friday keeping at least sctd showers and tstms in the forecast
both days. Most widespread activity looks like it will be on
Thursday as a decent upper shortwave moves across the area while a
cool surface high settles into the northern plains and provides a
surface upslope pattern over the CWA. Milder temperatures should
reduce the overall instability with more general showers and
storms expected that day. Subtle changes occur over the weekend as
an upper ridge drifts east and over the CWA which will act to
shunt the better moisture southward so should see less convection
for Sunday and Monday. GFS particularly dry those two days while
EC still paints some QPF mainly on Sunday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 529 AM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Patchy low clouds and/or fog affecting mainly KCYS and KSNY early
this morning otherwise VFR expected elsewhere today and most of
tonight. Widely sctd tstms expected to form over the plains by
mid-afternoon then move out this evening with associated periods
of MVFR vsbys with them.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 529 AM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

An active pattern will continue through the week with chances for
showers and thunderstorms expected each day. Some storms may
become severe today across the plains with large hail and damaging
winds possible. Isolated dry thunderstorms remain a possibility in
the mountains, however current model guidance shows a better
chance for wetting rains today than previous forecasts, especially
in the higher elevations. Another round of scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday, with an overall better
chance for wetting rains in the mountains. Similar conditions look
likely for Thursday.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...RJM




000
FXUS63 KUNR 280852
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
252 AM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 246 AM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Upper ridge covers the western CONUS, and next shortwave to
affect the CWA is moving through the Pacific Northwest. A few weak
showers are passing over the Hills. Satellite is showing some
clouds over north central SD, and a few storms have developed
across central SD. At the surface, winds are light and variable,
and temperatures are in the 50s to lower 60s.

Shortwave will move over the ridge and dive southeastward into the
region today. With surface high over MN, southeast winds will become
breezy, bringing moist air to the area. Highs will be in the 80s,
with dewpoints in the mid 50s to lower 60s, allowing MLCAPE to reach
1500-2500 J/kg by midday. Supercell development will be aided by
0-6 km shear around 50 kts. Hi-res convective models are in
disagreement on location/timing of storms, but convection over the
Hills as early as 18Z is possible. Scattered severe storms with
large hail and strong winds are expected through the afternoon.
Then the low-level jet increases this evening, which is expected
to help isolated storms transition into an MCS as it pushes
southeastward into NE.

Theta-e advection, along with some weak upper level divergence, may
produce some thunderstorms over MT late tonight, and track into
northwestern SD early Wednesday morning. Based on CAPE and shear,
would not rule out a strong to severe early morning storm there.
CIN would be the limiting factor.

Southeast winds Wednesday morning will become northeasterly as a
weak cool front slides through SD. Moist airmass, plenty of shear,
and weak upper forcing suggest strong to severe storms may be
possible again. However, models disagree on storm
mode/timing/location, so left somewhat broadbrushed pops for now.
Pops may be overdone in the afternoon when cap may prevent much from
developing. Highs Wednesday will be in the low to mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Through Monday)
Issued at 246 AM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Relatively moist southeasterly upslope flow will prevail during
most of the extended forecaster period with a series of
disturbances crossing the region in west to northwesterly flow
aloft. The persistent flow of low/mid level moisture will aid
diurnal convection nearly every day, although coverage will be
limited, isold-sct, most days. The fast W-NW flow aloft will
support deep layer shear through the period which will lead to at
least an isolated severe threat on most days, although the lack of
strong upper forcing will keep the coverage of severe storms
relatively limited. Temperatures will remain near or slightly
warmer than average, with highs mainly in the 80s through the
weekend leading into a more significant warm-up early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued At 246 AM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected early
this morning with scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening. Some thunderstorms may be severe this afternoon and
evening, with large hail and damaging wind gusts. VFR conditions will
prevail through the period except for local MVFR conditions near
any thunderstorms.


&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pojorlie
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10




000
FXUS65 KRIW 280840
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
240 AM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tuesday through Thursday night

We are seeing a change this morning as we transition from a quiet
pattern of the past few days into a more active one for the next
three. Today looks to be the most interesting. The ridge that has
brought the hot and dry weather of the past few days has sagged
south a bit with heights lowering a bit. In addition, a weak
shortwave will ride through the area and help to destabilize the
atmosphere a bit. There are still some questions as for how strong
the thunderstorms will get. Factors for the storms include a good
amount of shear that could bring tilted updrafts and some stronger
storms. There is also plenty of CAPE in the east with the models
showing as much as 1500 J/KG in Johnson and eastern Natrona Counties
with lifted indices down to minus 6. However, there are some
inhibiting factors. Although 500 millibar heights will be a bit
lower, they will still be over 5900 meters so it may take a while to
break. The biggest limiting factor though is moisture though. The
GFS keeps the 50 degree dew points out of the entire area except for
eastern Johnson County. The NAM backs them in a bit further but only
to around a Buffalo to Midwest line. In addition, the Storm
Prediction Center has removed the slight risk from the area. As a
result, we trimmed the severe area a bit. We followed to NAM 50
degree dew point line through most of Johnson County and eastern
Natrona Counties. Elsewhere, with drier air and inverted V
soundings, the main threat will be downburst winds and small hail
With the timing changed to a bit later, we also raised temperatures
a bit. Most of this activity should end by midnight as the wave
moves away to the east.

On Wednesday there will be more moisture over areas with better east
to southeast flow. However, there will be less shear. The Storm
Prediction Center only has general thunderstorms in the area as
well. So for now, we went with small hail and gusty winds. The
models also differ on the best coverage of the thunderstorms. The
NAM shows a surge of moisture from the south. The NAM is the driest
and has the best coverage in the north. The European has the best
coverage in the east. So as a result we kept isolated over all areas
with a better chance over Johnson County where the deeper moisture
will be.

A deeper plume of monsoonal moisture will move in for Wednesday
night into Thursday. As a result we increased some showers across
the area later Wednesday night into Thursday. This will also bring
more cloud cover which will keep temperatures a bit lower. This
looks to be the day with the best coverage of thunderstorms,
although possibly the least chance of severe storms.

.LONG TERM...Friday Through Tuesday

Warm ridge axis over the area to start the period gradually
flattens over the weekend leading to a potential shortwave passing
to the north around Monday night which may push a decent front
across the area. There looks like there will be quite a few
`ripples` in the flow but with limited moisture to work with
resulting in mainly diurnally driven convection centered on the
mountains during the afternoon with a few trying to move onto the
lower elevations by the evening hours. Airmass will then dry out
even more Monday into Tuesday with increasing sw flow Monday and a
generally dry wly flow next Tuesday. Quite warm each day,
especially Saturday through Monday when it looks like each day
will be in the 90s for most areas east of the divide with upper
70s and 80s west. The high country will be in the 70s to lower 80s
with 60s above 9500 to 10000 feet. Dry to very dry from the
weekend onward with min rh`s in the teens for most areas east of
the divide with some increase in wind on the 4th leading to
increased fire danger as combo of hot temps, breezy to windy conds
and low rh`s combine.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

VFR conditions to prevail through tonight. Showers and storms will
form over the region around 18z and continue through 01z.
Coverage of showers/storms will be greater along and northeast of a
line from Yellowstone National Park to Casper. Some storms may be
strong in Johnson county and the eastern part of Natrona county with
strong wind gusts and hail. Local MVFR conditions may occur with
stronger storms due to lower visibility in rain. Be sure to check
the latest weather conditions this afternoon.

Showers and storms will be more isolated in southwest and central
parts of WY. Main threat will be outflow wind gusts over 40 knots
near storms with brief rainfall.

The showers and storms will be decreasing after 01z with lingering
showers until 04z.&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...Elevated fire conditions over southern Wyoming today...

An upper level disturbance will cross the area today and bring a
chance of mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms, most numerous
in northern and eastern sections. A gusty westerly wind and relative
humidity falling into the teens will bring elevated fire danger
across the south today. Near critical fire weather is possible in
western Natrona County but red flag conditions are not expected.
Strong to possible severe thunderstorms are possible in Natrona and
Johnson Counties this afternoon and evening. Smoke dispersal and
mixing will be fair to good east of the Divide and good to excellent
across western and southern Wyoming.
&&

.RIW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hattings
LONG TERM...PS
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...Hattings




000
FXUS65 KRIW 280840
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
240 AM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tuesday through Thursday night

We are seeing a change this morning as we transition from a quiet
pattern of the past few days into a more active one for the next
three. Today looks to be the most interesting. The ridge that has
brought the hot and dry weather of the past few days has sagged
south a bit with heights lowering a bit. In addition, a weak
shortwave will ride through the area and help to destabilize the
atmosphere a bit. There are still some questions as for how strong
the thunderstorms will get. Factors for the storms include a good
amount of shear that could bring tilted updrafts and some stronger
storms. There is also plenty of CAPE in the east with the models
showing as much as 1500 J/KG in Johnson and eastern Natrona Counties
with lifted indices down to minus 6. However, there are some
inhibiting factors. Although 500 millibar heights will be a bit
lower, they will still be over 5900 meters so it may take a while to
break. The biggest limiting factor though is moisture though. The
GFS keeps the 50 degree dew points out of the entire area except for
eastern Johnson County. The NAM backs them in a bit further but only
to around a Buffalo to Midwest line. In addition, the Storm
Prediction Center has removed the slight risk from the area. As a
result, we trimmed the severe area a bit. We followed to NAM 50
degree dew point line through most of Johnson County and eastern
Natrona Counties. Elsewhere, with drier air and inverted V
soundings, the main threat will be downburst winds and small hail
With the timing changed to a bit later, we also raised temperatures
a bit. Most of this activity should end by midnight as the wave
moves away to the east.

On Wednesday there will be more moisture over areas with better east
to southeast flow. However, there will be less shear. The Storm
Prediction Center only has general thunderstorms in the area as
well. So for now, we went with small hail and gusty winds. The
models also differ on the best coverage of the thunderstorms. The
NAM shows a surge of moisture from the south. The NAM is the driest
and has the best coverage in the north. The European has the best
coverage in the east. So as a result we kept isolated over all areas
with a better chance over Johnson County where the deeper moisture
will be.

A deeper plume of monsoonal moisture will move in for Wednesday
night into Thursday. As a result we increased some showers across
the area later Wednesday night into Thursday. This will also bring
more cloud cover which will keep temperatures a bit lower. This
looks to be the day with the best coverage of thunderstorms,
although possibly the least chance of severe storms.

.LONG TERM...Friday Through Tuesday

Warm ridge axis over the area to start the period gradually
flattens over the weekend leading to a potential shortwave passing
to the north around Monday night which may push a decent front
across the area. There looks like there will be quite a few
`ripples` in the flow but with limited moisture to work with
resulting in mainly diurnally driven convection centered on the
mountains during the afternoon with a few trying to move onto the
lower elevations by the evening hours. Airmass will then dry out
even more Monday into Tuesday with increasing sw flow Monday and a
generally dry wly flow next Tuesday. Quite warm each day,
especially Saturday through Monday when it looks like each day
will be in the 90s for most areas east of the divide with upper
70s and 80s west. The high country will be in the 70s to lower 80s
with 60s above 9500 to 10000 feet. Dry to very dry from the
weekend onward with min rh`s in the teens for most areas east of
the divide with some increase in wind on the 4th leading to
increased fire danger as combo of hot temps, breezy to windy conds
and low rh`s combine.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

VFR conditions to prevail through tonight. Showers and storms will
form over the region around 18z and continue through 01z.
Coverage of showers/storms will be greater along and northeast of a
line from Yellowstone National Park to Casper. Some storms may be
strong in Johnson county and the eastern part of Natrona county with
strong wind gusts and hail. Local MVFR conditions may occur with
stronger storms due to lower visibility in rain. Be sure to check
the latest weather conditions this afternoon.

Showers and storms will be more isolated in southwest and central
parts of WY. Main threat will be outflow wind gusts over 40 knots
near storms with brief rainfall.

The showers and storms will be decreasing after 01z with lingering
showers until 04z.&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...Elevated fire conditions over southern Wyoming today...

An upper level disturbance will cross the area today and bring a
chance of mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms, most numerous
in northern and eastern sections. A gusty westerly wind and relative
humidity falling into the teens will bring elevated fire danger
across the south today. Near critical fire weather is possible in
western Natrona County but red flag conditions are not expected.
Strong to possible severe thunderstorms are possible in Natrona and
Johnson Counties this afternoon and evening. Smoke dispersal and
mixing will be fair to good east of the Divide and good to excellent
across western and southern Wyoming.
&&

.RIW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hattings
LONG TERM...PS
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...Hattings




000
FXUS65 KCYS 280516
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1116 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 936 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

It appears that the shear and moderate instability is keeping the
strong storm going in southern Box Butte and Morrill county.
However, it appears like the tornado threat is over. As a result,
we decided to go ahead and cancel the Tornado Watch.

UPDATE Issued at 750 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

We are sending out a quick update to cancel the Tornado Watch for
Southeast Wyoming. Meanwhile, the Nebraska Panhandle will continue
to see the potential for severe storms especially areas south of
Dawes county. Although, the tornado potential is looking more slim,
large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats. Therefore,
in collaboration with SPC, we have extended the Tornado Watch for
the Nebraska Panhandle until 04z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Afternoon water vapor loop showed a weak shortwave moving toward
western NE. This wave is encountering a very moist and unstable
airmass from western NE into eastern CO and western KS where SBCAPES
ranged from 3000-4000 j/kg and 0-6km shear of 40-50 kt. Latest
mesoanalysis placed the leading edge of 50+ deg dew points along
the lee side of the Laramie Range marked by enhanced cu cloud field.
Tstorms developed along eastern edge of CWA enhanced by low level
moisture convergence and differential heating. These storms
became severe quickly as they moved southeast along low level
theta-e ridge/instability axis. Other tstorms were firing over the
Black Hills SD and these may track south as right-movers per the
Bunkers vectors. Some convective inhibition (CIN) has kept
convective development limited over east-central WY and the northern
Laramie Range. Tornado Watch was issued for much of NE Panhandle
and far southeast WY until 8 pm MDT. Scattered tstorms will likely
persist through late evening over the NE portion of the CWA...with
more isolated activity over southeast WY.

Tuesday still looks to be more active than today in terms of severe
potential and convective coverage. A stronger shortwave topping the
upper ridge to the west will track southeast across eastern WY
and western NE during the afternoon and evening. NAM SBCAPES peak
between 3500 and 4500 j/kg mid-late afternoon Tuesday east of the
I-25 corridor. 0-6 km shear will be a tad stronger as well with
values around 50 kt. The SPC DAY2 outlook has an enhanced risk
for severe tstorms from extreme east-central WY into much of
western NE...mainly east of a line from Lusk WY to Kimball NE.
Looking at discrete supercells producing all modes of severe
weather...i.e. very large hail...damaging winds 60-70 mph and
isolated tornadoes. Severe threat may linger into the late evening
hours across the NE Panhandle. Convective coverage will be more
widely scattered along and west of the Laramie Range. High
temperatures will likely be reached by early afternoon with
readings in the 80s. Wednesday will be quieter with regards to
severe potential with only a marginal risk across the northeast
plains in the afternoon. High temperatures will be a few degrees
cooler...but still in the 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Wednesday night/Thursday...With decent upslope and low level
convergence, expect scattered evening thunderstorms Wednesday along
and east of I-25, then storms dissipating with loss of daytime
heating.  Same flow regime continues on Thursday with moist low level
easterly upslope and northwest flow aloft providing directional
shear. So, again scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms on
tap Thursday with some storms strong to severe based on shear and
instability.

Friday...Low and mid levels dry out slightly, thus less coverage of
afternoon and evening thunderstorms, focused especially across
western Nebraska where low level convergence will be maximized.

Saturday...Weak shortwave aloft progged to move across near peak
heating and combined with low and mid level moisture, expect
isolated to widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms
again.

Sunday...Atmosphere continues to dry out somewhat again with a
surface trough progged across far southeast Wyoming. Will continue
with mention of isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

July 4th...Fairly potent shortwave moves across central Montana with
notable warming at mid levels over our counties to near 18 Celsius
at 700 mb. With limited low and mid level moisture and warming aloft,
will leave out mention of thunderstorms for now as they look isolated
at best in this pattern, so hopefully outdoor activities will be near
perfect for the holiday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 1116 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Some remnant showers and a few tstms over the southern Neb Panhandle
should end withing the next couple hours with VFR expected
otherwise.  Patchy fog possible over parts of the Panhandle. Similar
weather expected Tuesday with wdly sctd tstms developing mainly over
the plains in the afternoon...continuing into the evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 308 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Moist unstable air...favorable wind shear and a passing upper
level disturbance will produce scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms for areas east of the Laramie Range today and
Tuesday. Some of the storms may be severe with large hail...heavy
rain and damaging winds. Areas west of the Laramie Range can
expect isolated afternoon thunderstorms...with the potential for
dry lightning over Carbon County. The unsettled weather pattern
will continue Wednesday through the weekend with isolated to
scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REC
SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ




000
FXUS65 KCYS 280516
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1116 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 936 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

It appears that the shear and moderate instability is keeping the
strong storm going in southern Box Butte and Morrill county.
However, it appears like the tornado threat is over. As a result,
we decided to go ahead and cancel the Tornado Watch.

UPDATE Issued at 750 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

We are sending out a quick update to cancel the Tornado Watch for
Southeast Wyoming. Meanwhile, the Nebraska Panhandle will continue
to see the potential for severe storms especially areas south of
Dawes county. Although, the tornado potential is looking more slim,
large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats. Therefore,
in collaboration with SPC, we have extended the Tornado Watch for
the Nebraska Panhandle until 04z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Afternoon water vapor loop showed a weak shortwave moving toward
western NE. This wave is encountering a very moist and unstable
airmass from western NE into eastern CO and western KS where SBCAPES
ranged from 3000-4000 j/kg and 0-6km shear of 40-50 kt. Latest
mesoanalysis placed the leading edge of 50+ deg dew points along
the lee side of the Laramie Range marked by enhanced cu cloud field.
Tstorms developed along eastern edge of CWA enhanced by low level
moisture convergence and differential heating. These storms
became severe quickly as they moved southeast along low level
theta-e ridge/instability axis. Other tstorms were firing over the
Black Hills SD and these may track south as right-movers per the
Bunkers vectors. Some convective inhibition (CIN) has kept
convective development limited over east-central WY and the northern
Laramie Range. Tornado Watch was issued for much of NE Panhandle
and far southeast WY until 8 pm MDT. Scattered tstorms will likely
persist through late evening over the NE portion of the CWA...with
more isolated activity over southeast WY.

Tuesday still looks to be more active than today in terms of severe
potential and convective coverage. A stronger shortwave topping the
upper ridge to the west will track southeast across eastern WY
and western NE during the afternoon and evening. NAM SBCAPES peak
between 3500 and 4500 j/kg mid-late afternoon Tuesday east of the
I-25 corridor. 0-6 km shear will be a tad stronger as well with
values around 50 kt. The SPC DAY2 outlook has an enhanced risk
for severe tstorms from extreme east-central WY into much of
western NE...mainly east of a line from Lusk WY to Kimball NE.
Looking at discrete supercells producing all modes of severe
weather...i.e. very large hail...damaging winds 60-70 mph and
isolated tornadoes. Severe threat may linger into the late evening
hours across the NE Panhandle. Convective coverage will be more
widely scattered along and west of the Laramie Range. High
temperatures will likely be reached by early afternoon with
readings in the 80s. Wednesday will be quieter with regards to
severe potential with only a marginal risk across the northeast
plains in the afternoon. High temperatures will be a few degrees
cooler...but still in the 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Wednesday night/Thursday...With decent upslope and low level
convergence, expect scattered evening thunderstorms Wednesday along
and east of I-25, then storms dissipating with loss of daytime
heating.  Same flow regime continues on Thursday with moist low level
easterly upslope and northwest flow aloft providing directional
shear. So, again scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms on
tap Thursday with some storms strong to severe based on shear and
instability.

Friday...Low and mid levels dry out slightly, thus less coverage of
afternoon and evening thunderstorms, focused especially across
western Nebraska where low level convergence will be maximized.

Saturday...Weak shortwave aloft progged to move across near peak
heating and combined with low and mid level moisture, expect
isolated to widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms
again.

Sunday...Atmosphere continues to dry out somewhat again with a
surface trough progged across far southeast Wyoming. Will continue
with mention of isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

July 4th...Fairly potent shortwave moves across central Montana with
notable warming at mid levels over our counties to near 18 Celsius
at 700 mb. With limited low and mid level moisture and warming aloft,
will leave out mention of thunderstorms for now as they look isolated
at best in this pattern, so hopefully outdoor activities will be near
perfect for the holiday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 1116 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Some remnant showers and a few tstms over the southern Neb Panhandle
should end withing the next couple hours with VFR expected
otherwise.  Patchy fog possible over parts of the Panhandle. Similar
weather expected Tuesday with wdly sctd tstms developing mainly over
the plains in the afternoon...continuing into the evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 308 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Moist unstable air...favorable wind shear and a passing upper
level disturbance will produce scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms for areas east of the Laramie Range today and
Tuesday. Some of the storms may be severe with large hail...heavy
rain and damaging winds. Areas west of the Laramie Range can
expect isolated afternoon thunderstorms...with the potential for
dry lightning over Carbon County. The unsettled weather pattern
will continue Wednesday through the weekend with isolated to
scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REC
SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ




000
FXUS63 KUNR 280447
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1047 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Upper air analysis shows upper ridging across the nrn Rockies into
the Great Basin. NWrly flow sits across the Dakotas behind a
departing wave moving into MN. A weak shortwave is crossing
cntrl/ern WY at this time moving toward the Neb panhandle. Surface
analysis showing high pressure stretching from ern MT to through the
CWA into cntrl Neb. Radar showing isolated storms developing across
the cntrl Black Hills. SBCape values over the Hills are reaching 500
to 1000 with generally weak shear. Better shear can be found toward
sw to scntrl SD where better moisture can be found resulting in
MLCape of 1000-2000 J/kg. Stronger storms are thus possible across
sw SD this afternoon and evening. HRRR shows a cluster of storms
pushing from the BH/sw SD toward scntrl SD this evening with perhaps
one or two storms becoming severe. Surface high will slide east of
the area with return flow bringing a surge of higher dewpoints.
Lingering overnight showers/storms may then redevelop northward
toward nw SD as instability increases.

Theta E advection will continue Tuesday bringing dewpoints into the
upper 50s/low 60s across the wrn SD plains. Highs will reach the 80s
to low 90s. Models continue to show storms develop Tue
afternoon/evening across the Black Hills and surrounding areas.
SBCape will range from 2000 to 3000 J/kg with strong shear profiles
suggesting the potential for splitting supercells. Large hail and
damaging winds will be possible. Models continue to show the
evolution of these storms into an MCS which will push E/SE into the
cntrl/panhandle of Neb and East River SD. Convective activity with
then decrease in the late night hours across the CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Through Monday)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Rockies high pressure ridge center will remain southwest of the
region, with the northern plains on the northern periphery and
fast flow aloft through most of the period. Mean ne pac upper
trough will remain in place, ejecting weak disturbances into
westerly flow. This will support periodic disturbances into the
area as general easterly upslope flow remains in place in the low
levels. Certainly not expecting any widespread precip, with
scattered nature to precip. Pac ne upper trough is progged to
shift east this weekend, supporting downstream ridging over the
northern plains and potential very hot and windy conds once again
by early next week.

General moist/easterly upslope flow will prevail in the period with
impulse laden wnw flow aloft. Diurnal convection is expected in the
area nearly every day, although coverage will be limited to sct-
isold. Fast wnw flow will support increased deep layer shear through
the period with sufficient cape given moist ll flow. Hence, there
will be a muted severe threat each day as an isolated severe storm
or two is possible given cape/shear progs. Lack of strong upper
level forcing precludes any widespread severe threat. As for temps,
seasonal conds forecast, with generally 80s for highs. Another sig
warm up looks likely early next week with a sfc low pressure pushing
the hot dome east into the region once again.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued At 1044 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Areas of smoke from fires over the Bear Lodge mountains and
northern Black Hills will bring local MVFR/IFR VSBYS to the
northern Black Hills area at times. Isolated TSRA may develop
overnight over NWRN-WCNTRL SD, and could result in MVFR CIGS.
Otherwise, strong to severe thunderstorms will develop over much
of northeastern Wyoming and southwestern South Dakota Tuesday
afternoon and persist through early evening.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...Bunkers




000
FXUS65 KRIW 280431
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
1031 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday (Issued at 258 PM MDT)

Water vapor imagery as of 19Z shows a weak wave across north-central
Wyoming pushing southeast. LAPS data shows weak instability
beginning to develop over the higher terrain as well as into lower
elevations of Johnson and Natrona Counties. Cumulus are developing
over the northern mountains...as well as the Laramie Range...while
the rest of the area remains cloud free. Could see a few
thunderstorms over the northern mountains /Absaroka & Bighorns/ as
well as Casper Mountain. Any activity should dissipate rather
quickly as it tries to push off the mountains...and should be gone
shortly after sunset.

A weak mid-level disturbance over the northern Great Basin will top
the upper ridge tonight and Tuesday. This feature could result in
high based...mainly virga showers developing late tonight over the
far west/northwest. This wave will push across western Wyoming in
the morning and across central Wyoming midday to mid-afternoon. As
this feature pushes east, it will encounter a better moisture
profile and instability. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop east of the Divide between 15Z and 19Z, probably peaking
between 18Z and 23Z. The NAM and GFS both show the best instability
occurring across Johnson and Natrona Counties...with the peak
instability occurring between 17Z and 21Z with a marked decrease in
CAPE values late in the afternoon. The NAM goes from around 2500
j/kg at 18Z to around 500 j/kg by 00Z...with the GFS showing the
same trend, but with less overall instability as it only has
dewpoints in the mid 40s while the NAM as mid 50s to possibly near
60. Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms are expected east of the
Divide with an emphasis over Johnson and Natrona Counties. Have kept
severe wording in those areas with plenty of wind shear and
instability for large hail and damaging winds. If the lifted
condensation level is low enough over the east, not out of the
question we could see an isolated tornado. Farther west...a more
inverted V-Sounding will result in strong winds and some small hail
being the main hazards.

Pondered a fire weather watch for zone 280 as models show the
potential of a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms especially over far
western portions of zone 280. Any new fire starts could be hard
to control as winds could be very gusty and erratic. In the wake
of the thunderstorm activity models show a drying boundary layer
late in the afternoon, but current thinking is thunderstorms over
the north will send a cool, relatively moist boundary
south/southwest across the area late in the afternoon/early
evening. The overnight shift can take one more look to see if the
trend is for dry or wet thunderstorms.

The low-level easterly/northeast moist flow looks to become better
established Wednesday east of the Divide. The best instability
remains over Johnson and Natrona Counties where strong to possibly
severe storms are once again possible...but overall severe
parameters are weaker on Wednesday than what is expected Tuesday.
Across the southwest and west...models are showing a bit more
moisture and thus have added in some afternoon/evening mountain
convection.

By Thursday...models continue to indicate some mid/high level
monsoonal moisture beginning to overspread the region. Isolated
to locally scattered thunderstorms are expected across much of the
area, with an emphasis over the east where better low-level
moisture will remain. One wild card could be considerable high
level cloudiness associated with the monsoonal moisture could
limit insolation and the resultant instability.

.LONG TERM...Thursday Night through Independence Day

...Hot, Windy, and Very Dry Conditions with Elevated to Extreme
Fire Danger Possible on Independence Day...

Synopsis...An increase in cloud cover from high level monsoonal
moisture will bring slightly cooler daytime temperatures and slight
chances of showers and thunderstorms to most of the area Thursday
and Friday. A drier westerly flow will shift most of this moisture
south and east over the weekend with warmer temperatures and
isolated thunderstorm coverage. Very warm, dry and windy conditions
are expected ahead of an approaching cold front on Sunday and
especially the Fourth of July, that will result in elevated to
extreme fire danger.

Discussion...ECMWF and GFS are in good overall agreement through the
extended period across the western U.S. with the most noticeable
spread involving upper low diving out of the Gulf of Alaska into the
northern Rockies early next week. These differences may come into
play further down the road, but will not significantly impact the
forecast through the Fourth of July.

The extended period begins with ridge roughly along 110W from the
Four Corners area into Canada, flanked by upper lows over the Great
Lakes region and over the Gulf of Alaska. Return flow around
surface high pressure over the northern plains will continue to
bring low level moisture, CAPE into the east half of Wyoming
Thursday and Friday while mid and high level monsoonal moisture
drift north into the south and west. Lower levels remain dry
across the west Thursday with PWATs expected to increase to 0.75-
1.00 inch across the entire area Friday. Best chance of
thunderstorms and favorable shear profiles for stronger
thunderstorms will be across Natrona and Johnson counties on
Thursday. The `monsoonal plume` will likely be mostly high level
moisture on Friday that could act to suppress convection - a lot of
virga with a few thunderstorms mainly forming on cloud/clear air
boundaries.

Gulf of Alaska low begins to push into western Canada and the NW
U.S. over the weekend with drier west southwest flow over the area;
isolated thunderstorms lingering over the elevated terrain and along
a retreating surface trough across Natrona/Johnson counties.

Strong upper low from the Gulf of Alaska pushes east across the U.S.
Canadian border on Independence Day, putting most of Wyoming in the
warm sector ahead of an approaching cold front. A similar scenario
to last Friday, June 24th. Hot, windy, and very dry conditions are
expected across most of the area with extreme fire danger where
fuels are critically dry. Have nudged temperatures up a degree or
two over the lower elevations of the east, but this may still be
underdone. Seems that these pre-frontal wind events always boost
temperatures a few extra degrees. Wind gusts the afternoon of the
4th could be 30-40 mph with temperatures hovering around 90 and
perhaps into the mid 90s. Coupled with humidities of 10-15 percent,
the fire danger will certainly be elevated.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR conditions to prevail through Tuesday night. Showers and storms
will form over the region around 18z and continue through 01z Wed.
Coverage of showers/storms will be greater along and northeast of a
line from Yellowstone National Park to Casper. Some storms may be
strong in Johnson county and the eastern part of Natrona county with
strong wind gusts and hail. Be sure to check the latest weather
conditions Tue afternoon.

Showers and storms will be more isolated in southwest and central
parts of WY. Main threat will be outflow wind gusts over 40 knots
near storms with brief rainfall.

The showers and storms will be decreasing after 01z with possible
lingering showers until 04z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...Elevated fire weather conditions over south and southwest Tuesday
and Wednesday...

A combination of a couple weak upper level systems and a quasi-
stationary frontal boundary east of the Divide will result in
isolate to locally scattered thunderstorms along and east of the
Divide both days. Could see some very isolated activity west of the
Divide, but activity would be mainly dry with gusty winds. Also
across the south and southwest fire zones, the combination of very
low RH, breezy westerly winds and the chance of dry thunderstorms
will enhance fire weather conditions. The storms east of the Divide
will be more wet especially across Johnson and Natrona County where
more low level moisture will be present. Some storms in those areas
could be severe with large hail, damaging winds and a plethora of
lightning. Some monsoonal moisture spreads northward across the area
Thursday and Friday with isolated to locally scattered thunderstorms
across the much of the area. The thunderstorms will be more dry over
the west and trend more wet east.

Hot, windy with low to very low RH are possible Sunday into the
Fourth of July.

&&

.RIW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WM
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...WM




000
FXUS65 KCYS 280340
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
940 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 936 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

It appears that the shear and moderate instability is keeping the
strong storm going in southern Box Butte and Morrill county.
However, it appears like the tornado threat is over. As a result,
we decided to go ahead and cancel the Tornado Watch.

UPDATE Issued at 750 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

We are sending out a quick update to cancel the Tornado Watch for
Southeast Wyoming. Meanwhile, the Nebraska Panhandle will continue
to see the potential for severe storms especially areas south of
Dawes county. Although, the tornado potential is looking more slim,
large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats. Therefore,
in collaboration with SPC, we have extended the Tornado Watch for
the Nebraska Panhandle until 04z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Afternoon water vapor loop showed a weak shortwave moving toward
western NE. This wave is encountering a very moist and unstable
airmass from western NE into eastern CO and western KS where SBCAPES
ranged from 3000-4000 j/kg and 0-6km shear of 40-50 kt. Latest
mesoanalysis placed the leading edge of 50+ deg dew points along
the lee side of the Laramie Range marked by enhanced cu cloud field.
Tstorms developed along eastern edge of CWA enhanced by low level
moisture convergence and differential heating. These storms
became severe quickly as they moved southeast along low level
theta-e ridge/instability axis. Other tstorms were firing over the
Black Hills SD and these may track south as right-movers per the
Bunkers vectors. Some convective inhibition (CIN) has kept
convective development limited over east-central WY and the northern
Laramie Range. Tornado Watch was issued for much of NE Panhandle
and far southeast WY until 8 pm MDT. Scattered tstorms will likely
persist through late evening over the NE portion of the CWA...with
more isolated activity over southeast WY.

Tuesday still looks to be more active than today in terms of severe
potential and convective coverage. A stronger shortwave topping the
upper ridge to the west will track southeast across eastern WY
and western NE during the afternoon and evening. NAM SBCAPES peak
between 3500 and 4500 j/kg mid-late afternoon Tuesday east of the
I-25 corridor. 0-6 km shear will be a tad stronger as well with
values around 50 kt. The SPC DAY2 outlook has an enhanced risk
for severe tstorms from extreme east-central WY into much of
western NE...mainly east of a line from Lusk WY to Kimball NE.
Looking at discrete supercells producing all modes of severe
weather...i.e. very large hail...damaging winds 60-70 mph and
isolated tornadoes. Severe threat may linger into the late evening
hours across the NE Panhandle. Convective coverage will be more
widely scattered along and west of the Laramie Range. High
temperatures will likely be reached by early afternoon with
readings in the 80s. Wednesday will be quieter with regards to
severe potential with only a marginal risk across the northeast
plains in the afternoon. High temperatures will be a few degrees
cooler...but still in the 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Wednesday night/Thursday...With decent upslope and low level
convergence, expect scattered evening thunderstorms Wednesday along
and east of I-25, then storms dissipating with loss of daytime
heating.  Same flow regime continues on Thursday with moist low level
easterly upslope and northwest flow aloft providing directional
shear. So, again scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms on
tap Thursday with some storms strong to severe based on shear and
instability.

Friday...Low and mid levels dry out slightly, thus less coverage of
afternoon and evening thunderstorms, focused especially across
western Nebraska where low level convergence will be maximized.

Saturday...Weak shortwave aloft progged to move across near peak
heating and combined with low and mid level moisture, expect
isolated to widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms
again.

Sunday...Atmosphere continues to dry out somewhat again with a
surface trough progged across far southeast Wyoming. Will continue
with mention of isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

July 4th...Fairly potent shortwave moves across central Montana with
notable warming at mid levels over our counties to near 18 Celsius
at 700 mb. With limited low and mid level moisture and warming aloft,
will leave out mention of thunderstorms for now as they look isolated
at best in this pattern, so hopefully outdoor activities will be near
perfect for the holiday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 537 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Wyoming TAFS...VFR at Rawlins and Laramie. Isolated thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon near Laramie. At Cheyenne, VFR prevails with
periods of IFR in fog from 10Z to 15Z. Isolated thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon near Cheyenne.

Nebraska TAFS...Isolated thunderstorms until 03Z. VFR prevails,
except for IFR in fog from 07Z to 15Z. Isolated thunderstorms
again Tuesday afternoon.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 308 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Moist unstable air...favorable wind shear and a passing upper
level disturbance will produce scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms for areas east of the Laramie Range today and
Tuesday. Some of the storms may be severe with large hail...heavy
rain and damaging winds. Areas west of the Laramie Range can
expect isolated afternoon thunderstorms...with the potential for
dry lightning over Carbon County. The unsettled weather pattern
will continue Wednesday through the weekend with isolated to
scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REC
SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ




000
FXUS65 KCYS 280156 CCA
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
756 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 750 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

We are sending out a quick update to cancel the Tornado Watch for
Southeast Wyoming. Meanwhile, the Nebraska Panhandle will continue
to see the potential for severe storms especially areas south of
Dawes county. Although, the tornado potential is looking more slim,
large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats. Therefore,
in collaboration with SPC, we have extended the Tornado Watch for
the Nebraska Panhandle until 04z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Afternoon water vapor loop showed a weak shortwave moving toward
western NE. This wave is encountering a very moist and unstable
airmass from western NE into eastern CO and western KS where SBCAPES
ranged from 3000-4000 j/kg and 0-6km shear of 40-50 kt. Latest
mesoanalysis placed the leading edge of 50+ deg dew points along
the lee side of the Laramie Range marked by enhanced cu cloud field.
Tstorms developed along eastern edge of CWA enhanced by low level
moisture convergence and differential heating. These storms
became severe quickly as they moved southeast along low level
theta-e ridge/instability axis. Other tstorms were firing over the
Black Hills SD and these may track south as right-movers per the
Bunkers vectors. Some convective inhibition (CIN) has kept
convective development limited over east-central WY and the northern
Laramie Range. Tornado Watch was issued for much of NE Panhandle
and far southeast WY until 8 pm MDT. Scattered tstorms will likely
persist through late evening over the NE portion of the CWA...with
more isolated activity over southeast WY.

Tuesday still looks to be more active than today in terms of severe
potential and convective coverage. A stronger shortwave topping the
upper ridge to the west will track southeast across eastern WY
and western NE during the afternoon and evening. NAM SBCAPES peak
between 3500 and 4500 j/kg mid-late afternoon Tuesday east of the
I-25 corridor. 0-6 km shear will be a tad stronger as well with
values around 50 kt. The SPC DAY2 outlook has an enhanced risk
for severe tstorms from extreme east-central WY into much of
western NE...mainly east of a line from Lusk WY to Kimball NE.
Looking at discrete supercells producing all modes of severe
weather...i.e. very large hail...damaging winds 60-70 mph and
isolated tornadoes. Severe threat may linger into the late evening
hours across the NE Panhandle. Convective coverage will be more
widely scattered along and west of the Laramie Range. High
temperatures will likely be reached by early afternoon with
readings in the 80s. Wednesday will be quieter with regards to
severe potential with only a marginal risk across the northeast
plains in the afternoon. High temperatures will be a few degrees
cooler...but still in the 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Wednesday night/Thursday...With decent upslope and low level
convergence, expect scattered evening thunderstorms Wednesday along
and east of I-25, then storms dissipating with loss of daytime
heating.  Same flow regime continues on Thursday with moist low level
easterly upslope and northwest flow aloft providing directional
shear. So, again scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms on
tap Thursday with some storms strong to severe based on shear and
instability.

Friday...Low and mid levels dry out slightly, thus less coverage of
afternoon and evening thunderstorms, focused especially across
western Nebraska where low level convergence will be maximized.

Saturday...Weak shortwave aloft progged to move across near peak
heating and combined with low and mid level moisture, expect
isolated to widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms
again.

Sunday...Atmosphere continues to dry out somewhat again with a
surface trough progged across far southeast Wyoming. Will continue
with mention of isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

July 4th...Fairly potent shortwave moves across central Montana with
notable warming at mid levels over our counties to near 18 Celsius
at 700 mb. With limited low and mid level moisture and warming aloft,
will leave out mention of thunderstorms for now as they look isolated
at best in this pattern, so hopefully outdoor activities will be near
perfect for the holiday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 537 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Wyoming TAFS...VFR at Rawlins and Laramie. Isolated thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon near Laramie. At Cheyenne, VFR prevails with
periods of IFR in fog from 10Z to 15Z. Isolated thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon near Cheyenne.

Nebraska TAFS...Isolated thunderstorms until 03Z. VFR prevails,
except for IFR in fog from 07Z to 15Z. Isolated thunderstorms
again Tuesday afternoon.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 308 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Moist unstable air...favorable wind shear and a passing upper
level disturbance will produce scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms for areas east of the Laramie Range today and
Tuesday. Some of the storms may be severe with large hail...heavy
rain and damaging winds. Areas west of the Laramie Range can
expect isolated afternoon thunderstorms...with the potential for
dry lightning over Carbon County. The unsettled weather pattern
will continue Wednesday through the weekend with isolated to
scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REC
SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ




000
FXUS65 KCYS 280156 CCA
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
756 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 750 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

We are sending out a quick update to cancel the Tornado Watch for
Southeast Wyoming. Meanwhile, the Nebraska Panhandle will continue
to see the potential for severe storms especially areas south of
Dawes county. Although, the tornado potential is looking more slim,
large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats. Therefore,
in collaboration with SPC, we have extended the Tornado Watch for
the Nebraska Panhandle until 04z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Afternoon water vapor loop showed a weak shortwave moving toward
western NE. This wave is encountering a very moist and unstable
airmass from western NE into eastern CO and western KS where SBCAPES
ranged from 3000-4000 j/kg and 0-6km shear of 40-50 kt. Latest
mesoanalysis placed the leading edge of 50+ deg dew points along
the lee side of the Laramie Range marked by enhanced cu cloud field.
Tstorms developed along eastern edge of CWA enhanced by low level
moisture convergence and differential heating. These storms
became severe quickly as they moved southeast along low level
theta-e ridge/instability axis. Other tstorms were firing over the
Black Hills SD and these may track south as right-movers per the
Bunkers vectors. Some convective inhibition (CIN) has kept
convective development limited over east-central WY and the northern
Laramie Range. Tornado Watch was issued for much of NE Panhandle
and far southeast WY until 8 pm MDT. Scattered tstorms will likely
persist through late evening over the NE portion of the CWA...with
more isolated activity over southeast WY.

Tuesday still looks to be more active than today in terms of severe
potential and convective coverage. A stronger shortwave topping the
upper ridge to the west will track southeast across eastern WY
and western NE during the afternoon and evening. NAM SBCAPES peak
between 3500 and 4500 j/kg mid-late afternoon Tuesday east of the
I-25 corridor. 0-6 km shear will be a tad stronger as well with
values around 50 kt. The SPC DAY2 outlook has an enhanced risk
for severe tstorms from extreme east-central WY into much of
western NE...mainly east of a line from Lusk WY to Kimball NE.
Looking at discrete supercells producing all modes of severe
weather...i.e. very large hail...damaging winds 60-70 mph and
isolated tornadoes. Severe threat may linger into the late evening
hours across the NE Panhandle. Convective coverage will be more
widely scattered along and west of the Laramie Range. High
temperatures will likely be reached by early afternoon with
readings in the 80s. Wednesday will be quieter with regards to
severe potential with only a marginal risk across the northeast
plains in the afternoon. High temperatures will be a few degrees
cooler...but still in the 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Wednesday night/Thursday...With decent upslope and low level
convergence, expect scattered evening thunderstorms Wednesday along
and east of I-25, then storms dissipating with loss of daytime
heating.  Same flow regime continues on Thursday with moist low level
easterly upslope and northwest flow aloft providing directional
shear. So, again scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms on
tap Thursday with some storms strong to severe based on shear and
instability.

Friday...Low and mid levels dry out slightly, thus less coverage of
afternoon and evening thunderstorms, focused especially across
western Nebraska where low level convergence will be maximized.

Saturday...Weak shortwave aloft progged to move across near peak
heating and combined with low and mid level moisture, expect
isolated to widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms
again.

Sunday...Atmosphere continues to dry out somewhat again with a
surface trough progged across far southeast Wyoming. Will continue
with mention of isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

July 4th...Fairly potent shortwave moves across central Montana with
notable warming at mid levels over our counties to near 18 Celsius
at 700 mb. With limited low and mid level moisture and warming aloft,
will leave out mention of thunderstorms for now as they look isolated
at best in this pattern, so hopefully outdoor activities will be near
perfect for the holiday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 537 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Wyoming TAFS...VFR at Rawlins and Laramie. Isolated thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon near Laramie. At Cheyenne, VFR prevails with
periods of IFR in fog from 10Z to 15Z. Isolated thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon near Cheyenne.

Nebraska TAFS...Isolated thunderstorms until 03Z. VFR prevails,
except for IFR in fog from 07Z to 15Z. Isolated thunderstorms
again Tuesday afternoon.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 308 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Moist unstable air...favorable wind shear and a passing upper
level disturbance will produce scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms for areas east of the Laramie Range today and
Tuesday. Some of the storms may be severe with large hail...heavy
rain and damaging winds. Areas west of the Laramie Range can
expect isolated afternoon thunderstorms...with the potential for
dry lightning over Carbon County. The unsettled weather pattern
will continue Wednesday through the weekend with isolated to
scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REC
SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ




000
FXUS65 KCYS 280153
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
753 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 750 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

We are sending out a quick update to cancel the Tornado Watch for
Southeast Wyoming. Meanwhile, the Nebraska Panhandle will continue
to see the potential for severe storms especially areas south of
Dawes county.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Afternoon water vapor loop showed a weak shortwave moving toward
western NE. This wave is encountering a very moist and unstable
airmass from western NE into eastern CO and western KS where SBCAPES
ranged from 3000-4000 j/kg and 0-6km shear of 40-50 kt. Latest
mesoanalysis placed the leading edge of 50+ deg dew points along
the lee side of the Laramie Range marked by enhanced cu cloud field.
Tstorms developed along eastern edge of CWA enhanced by low level
moisture convergence and differential heating. These storms
became severe quickly as they moved southeast along low level
theta-e ridge/instability axis. Other tstorms were firing over the
Black Hills SD and these may track south as right-movers per the
Bunkers vectors. Some convective inhibition (CIN) has kept
convective development limited over east-central WY and the northern
Laramie Range. Tornado Watch was issued for much of NE Panhandle
and far southeast WY until 8 pm MDT. Scattered tstorms will likely
persist through late evening over the NE portion of the CWA...with
more isolated activity over southeast WY.

Tuesday still looks to be more active than today in terms of severe
potential and convective coverage. A stronger shortwave topping the
upper ridge to the west will track southeast across eastern WY
and western NE during the afternoon and evening. NAM SBCAPES peak
between 3500 and 4500 j/kg mid-late afternoon Tuesday east of the
I-25 corridor. 0-6 km shear will be a tad stronger as well with
values around 50 kt. The SPC DAY2 outlook has an enhanced risk
for severe tstorms from extreme east-central WY into much of
western NE...mainly east of a line from Lusk WY to Kimball NE.
Looking at discrete supercells producing all modes of severe
weather...i.e. very large hail...damaging winds 60-70 mph and
isolated tornadoes. Severe threat may linger into the late evening
hours across the NE Panhandle. Convective coverage will be more
widely scattered along and west of the Laramie Range. High
temperatures will likely be reached by early afternoon with
readings in the 80s. Wednesday will be quieter with regards to
severe potential with only a marginal risk across the northeast
plains in the afternoon. High temperatures will be a few degrees
cooler...but still in the 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Wednesday night/Thursday...With decent upslope and low level
convergence, expect scattered evening thunderstorms Wednesday along
and east of I-25, then storms dissipating with loss of daytime
heating.  Same flow regime continues on Thursday with moist low level
easterly upslope and northwest flow aloft providing directional
shear. So, again scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms on
tap Thursday with some storms strong to severe based on shear and
instability.

Friday...Low and mid levels dry out slightly, thus less coverage of
afternoon and evening thunderstorms, focused especially across
western Nebraska where low level convergence will be maximized.

Saturday...Weak shortwave aloft progged to move across near peak
heating and combined with low and mid level moisture, expect
isolated to widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms
again.

Sunday...Atmosphere continues to dry out somewhat again with a
surface trough progged across far southeast Wyoming. Will continue
with mention of isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

July 4th...Fairly potent shortwave moves across central Montana with
notable warming at mid levels over our counties to near 18 Celsius
at 700 mb. With limited low and mid level moisture and warming aloft,
will leave out mention of thunderstorms for now as they look isolated
at best in this pattern, so hopefully outdoor activities will be near
perfect for the holiday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 537 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Wyoming TAFS...VFR at Rawlins and Laramie. Isolated thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon near Laramie. At Cheyenne, VFR prevails with
periods of IFR in fog from 10Z to 15Z. Isolated thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon near Cheyenne.

Nebraska TAFS...Isolated thunderstorms until 03Z. VFR prevails,
except for IFR in fog from 07Z to 15Z. Isolated thunderstorms
again Tuesday afternoon.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 308 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Moist unstable air...favorable wind shear and a passing upper
level disturbance will produce scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms for areas east of the Laramie Range today and
Tuesday. Some of the storms may be severe with large hail...heavy
rain and damaging winds. Areas west of the Laramie Range can
expect isolated afternoon thunderstorms...with the potential for
dry lightning over Carbon County. The unsettled weather pattern
will continue Wednesday through the weekend with isolated to
scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REC
SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ




000
FXUS65 KCYS 280153
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
753 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 750 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

We are sending out a quick update to cancel the Tornado Watch for
Southeast Wyoming. Meanwhile, the Nebraska Panhandle will continue
to see the potential for severe storms especially areas south of
Dawes county.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Afternoon water vapor loop showed a weak shortwave moving toward
western NE. This wave is encountering a very moist and unstable
airmass from western NE into eastern CO and western KS where SBCAPES
ranged from 3000-4000 j/kg and 0-6km shear of 40-50 kt. Latest
mesoanalysis placed the leading edge of 50+ deg dew points along
the lee side of the Laramie Range marked by enhanced cu cloud field.
Tstorms developed along eastern edge of CWA enhanced by low level
moisture convergence and differential heating. These storms
became severe quickly as they moved southeast along low level
theta-e ridge/instability axis. Other tstorms were firing over the
Black Hills SD and these may track south as right-movers per the
Bunkers vectors. Some convective inhibition (CIN) has kept
convective development limited over east-central WY and the northern
Laramie Range. Tornado Watch was issued for much of NE Panhandle
and far southeast WY until 8 pm MDT. Scattered tstorms will likely
persist through late evening over the NE portion of the CWA...with
more isolated activity over southeast WY.

Tuesday still looks to be more active than today in terms of severe
potential and convective coverage. A stronger shortwave topping the
upper ridge to the west will track southeast across eastern WY
and western NE during the afternoon and evening. NAM SBCAPES peak
between 3500 and 4500 j/kg mid-late afternoon Tuesday east of the
I-25 corridor. 0-6 km shear will be a tad stronger as well with
values around 50 kt. The SPC DAY2 outlook has an enhanced risk
for severe tstorms from extreme east-central WY into much of
western NE...mainly east of a line from Lusk WY to Kimball NE.
Looking at discrete supercells producing all modes of severe
weather...i.e. very large hail...damaging winds 60-70 mph and
isolated tornadoes. Severe threat may linger into the late evening
hours across the NE Panhandle. Convective coverage will be more
widely scattered along and west of the Laramie Range. High
temperatures will likely be reached by early afternoon with
readings in the 80s. Wednesday will be quieter with regards to
severe potential with only a marginal risk across the northeast
plains in the afternoon. High temperatures will be a few degrees
cooler...but still in the 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Wednesday night/Thursday...With decent upslope and low level
convergence, expect scattered evening thunderstorms Wednesday along
and east of I-25, then storms dissipating with loss of daytime
heating.  Same flow regime continues on Thursday with moist low level
easterly upslope and northwest flow aloft providing directional
shear. So, again scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms on
tap Thursday with some storms strong to severe based on shear and
instability.

Friday...Low and mid levels dry out slightly, thus less coverage of
afternoon and evening thunderstorms, focused especially across
western Nebraska where low level convergence will be maximized.

Saturday...Weak shortwave aloft progged to move across near peak
heating and combined with low and mid level moisture, expect
isolated to widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms
again.

Sunday...Atmosphere continues to dry out somewhat again with a
surface trough progged across far southeast Wyoming. Will continue
with mention of isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

July 4th...Fairly potent shortwave moves across central Montana with
notable warming at mid levels over our counties to near 18 Celsius
at 700 mb. With limited low and mid level moisture and warming aloft,
will leave out mention of thunderstorms for now as they look isolated
at best in this pattern, so hopefully outdoor activities will be near
perfect for the holiday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 537 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Wyoming TAFS...VFR at Rawlins and Laramie. Isolated thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon near Laramie. At Cheyenne, VFR prevails with
periods of IFR in fog from 10Z to 15Z. Isolated thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon near Cheyenne.

Nebraska TAFS...Isolated thunderstorms until 03Z. VFR prevails,
except for IFR in fog from 07Z to 15Z. Isolated thunderstorms
again Tuesday afternoon.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 308 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Moist unstable air...favorable wind shear and a passing upper
level disturbance will produce scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms for areas east of the Laramie Range today and
Tuesday. Some of the storms may be severe with large hail...heavy
rain and damaging winds. Areas west of the Laramie Range can
expect isolated afternoon thunderstorms...with the potential for
dry lightning over Carbon County. The unsettled weather pattern
will continue Wednesday through the weekend with isolated to
scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REC
SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ




000
FXUS65 KCYS 272341
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
541 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Afternoon water vapor loop showed a weak shortwave moving toward
western NE. This wave is encountering a very moist and unstable
airmass from western NE into eastern CO and western KS where SBCAPES
ranged from 3000-4000 j/kg and 0-6km shear of 40-50 kt. Latest
mesoanalysis placed the leading edge of 50+ deg dew points along
the lee side of the Laramie Range marked by enhanced cu cloud field.
Tstorms developed along eastern edge of CWA enhanced by low level
moisture convergence and differential heating. These storms
became severe quickly as they moved southeast along low level
theta-e ridge/instability axis. Other tstorms were firing over the
Black Hills SD and these may track south as right-movers per the
Bunkers vectors. Some convective inhibition (CIN) has kept
convective development limited over east-central WY and the northern
Laramie Range. Tornado Watch was issued for much of NE Panhandle
and far southeast WY until 8 pm MDT. Scattered tstorms will likely
persist through late evening over the NE portion of the CWA...with
more isolated activity over southeast WY.

Tuesday still looks to be more active than today in terms of severe
potential and convective coverage. A stronger shortwave topping the
upper ridge to the west will track southeast across eastern WY
and western NE during the afternoon and evening. NAM SBCAPES peak
between 3500 and 4500 j/kg mid-late afternoon Tuesday east of the
I-25 corridor. 0-6 km shear will be a tad stronger as well with
values around 50 kt. The SPC DAY2 outlook has an enhanced risk
for severe tstorms from extreme east-central WY into much of
western NE...mainly east of a line from Lusk WY to Kimball NE.
Looking at discrete supercells producing all modes of severe
weather...i.e. very large hail...damaging winds 60-70 mph and
isolated tornadoes. Severe threat may linger into the late evening
hours across the NE Panhandle. Convective coverage will be more
widely scattered along and west of the Laramie Range. High
temperatures will likely be reached by early afternoon with
readings in the 80s. Wednesday will be quieter with regards to
severe potential with only a marginal risk across the northeast
plains in the afternoon. High temperatures will be a few degrees
cooler...but still in the 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Wednesday night/Thursday...With decent upslope and low level
convergence, expect scattered evening thunderstorms Wednesday along
and east of I-25, then storms dissipating with loss of daytime
heating.  Same flow regime continues on Thursday with moist low level
easterly upslope and northwest flow aloft providing directional
shear. So, again scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms on
tap Thursday with some storms strong to severe based on shear and
instability.

Friday...Low and mid levels dry out slightly, thus less coverage of
afternoon and evening thunderstorms, focused especially across
western Nebraska where low level convergence will be maximized.

Saturday...Weak shortwave aloft progged to move across near peak
heating and combined with low and mid level moisture, expect
isolated to widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms
again.

Sunday...Atmosphere continues to dry out somewhat again with a
surface trough progged across far southeast Wyoming. Will continue
with mention of isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

July 4th...Fairly potent shortwave moves across central Montana with
notable warming at mid levels over our counties to near 18 Celsius
at 700 mb. With limited low and mid level moisture and warming aloft,
will leave out mention of thunderstorms for now as they look isolated
at best in this pattern, so hopefully outdoor activities will be near
perfect for the holiday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 537 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Wyoming TAFS...VFR at Rawlins and Laramie. Isolated thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon near Laramie. At Cheyenne, VFR prevails with
periods of IFR in fog from 10Z to 15Z. Isolated thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon near Cheyenne.

Nebraska TAFS...Isolated thunderstorms until 03Z. VFR prevails,
except for IFR in fog from 07Z to 15Z. Isolated thunderstorms
again Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 308 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Moist unstable air...favorable wind shear and a passing upper
level disturbance will produce scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms for areas east of the Laramie Range today and
Tuesday. Some of the storms may be severe with large hail...heavy
rain and damaging winds. Areas west of the Laramie Range can
expect isolated afternoon thunderstorms...with the potential for
dry lightning over Carbon County. The unsettled weather pattern
will continue Wednesday through the weekend with isolated to
scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ




000
FXUS63 KUNR 272322
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
522 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Upper air analysis shows upper ridging across the nrn Rockies into
the Great Basin. NWrly flow sits across the Dakotas behind a
departing wave moving into MN. A weak shortwave is crossing
cntrl/ern WY at this time moving toward the Neb panhandle. Surface
analysis showing high pressure stretching from ern MT to through the
CWA into cntrl Neb. Radar showing isolated storms developing across
the cntrl Black Hills. SBCape values over the Hills are reaching 500
to 1000 with generally weak shear. Better shear can be found toward
sw to scntrl SD where better moisture can be found resulting in
MLCape of 1000-2000 J/kg. Stronger storms are thus possible across
sw SD this afternoon and evening. HRRR shows a cluster of storms
pushing from the BH/sw SD toward scntrl SD this evening with perhaps
one or two storms becoming severe. Surface high will slide east of
the area with return flow bringing a surge of higher dewpoints.
Lingering overnight showers/storms may then redevelop northward
toward nw SD as instability increases.

Theta E advection will continue Tuesday bringing dewpoints into the
upper 50s/low 60s across the wrn SD plains. Highs will reach the 80s
to low 90s. Models continue to show storms develop Tue
afternoon/evening across the Black Hills and surrounding areas.
SBCape will range from 2000 to 3000 J/kg with strong shear profiles
suggesting the potential for splitting supercells. Large hail and
damaging winds will be possible. Models continue to show the
evolution of these storms into an MCS which will push E/SE into the
cntrl/panhandle of Neb and East River SD. Convective activity with
then decrease in the late night hours across the CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Through Monday)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Rockies high pressure ridge center will remain southwest of the
region, with the northern plains on the northern periphery and
fast flow aloft through most of the period. Mean ne pac upper
trough will remain in place, ejecting weak disturbances into
westerly flow. This will support periodic disturbances into the
area as general easterly upslope flow remains in place in the low
levels. Certainly not expecting any widespread precip, with
scattered nature to precip. Pac ne upper trough is progged to
shift east this weekend, supporting downstream ridging over the
northern plains and potential very hot and windy conds once again
by early next week.

General moist/easterly upslope flow will prevail in the period with
impulse laden wnw flow aloft. Diurnal convection is expected in the
area nearly every day, although coverage will be limited to sct-
isold. Fast wnw flow will support increased deep layer shear through
the period with sufficient cape given moist ll flow. Hence, there
will be a muted severe threat each day as an isolated severe storm
or two is possible given cape/shear progs. Lack of strong upper
level forcing precludes any widespread severe threat. As for temps,
seasonal conds forecast, with generally 80s for highs. Another sig
warm up looks likely early next week with a sfc low pressure pushing
the hot dome east into the region once again.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued At 520 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Areas of smoke from fires over the Bear Lodge mountains and
northern Black Hills will bring local MVFR/IFR visibility to the
northern Black Hills area at times. Isolated TSRA will continue
over the central/southern Black Hills through early evening.
There is the potential for a MVFR ceiling deck to develop across
western NE tonight and spread northwest into the area toward
morning. However, confidence for this remains low at this time.
Otherwise, strong to severe thunderstorms will develop over much
of northeastern Wyoming and southwestern South Dakota Tuesday
afternoon.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...Bunkers




000
FXUS63 KUNR 272322
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
522 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Upper air analysis shows upper ridging across the nrn Rockies into
the Great Basin. NWrly flow sits across the Dakotas behind a
departing wave moving into MN. A weak shortwave is crossing
cntrl/ern WY at this time moving toward the Neb panhandle. Surface
analysis showing high pressure stretching from ern MT to through the
CWA into cntrl Neb. Radar showing isolated storms developing across
the cntrl Black Hills. SBCape values over the Hills are reaching 500
to 1000 with generally weak shear. Better shear can be found toward
sw to scntrl SD where better moisture can be found resulting in
MLCape of 1000-2000 J/kg. Stronger storms are thus possible across
sw SD this afternoon and evening. HRRR shows a cluster of storms
pushing from the BH/sw SD toward scntrl SD this evening with perhaps
one or two storms becoming severe. Surface high will slide east of
the area with return flow bringing a surge of higher dewpoints.
Lingering overnight showers/storms may then redevelop northward
toward nw SD as instability increases.

Theta E advection will continue Tuesday bringing dewpoints into the
upper 50s/low 60s across the wrn SD plains. Highs will reach the 80s
to low 90s. Models continue to show storms develop Tue
afternoon/evening across the Black Hills and surrounding areas.
SBCape will range from 2000 to 3000 J/kg with strong shear profiles
suggesting the potential for splitting supercells. Large hail and
damaging winds will be possible. Models continue to show the
evolution of these storms into an MCS which will push E/SE into the
cntrl/panhandle of Neb and East River SD. Convective activity with
then decrease in the late night hours across the CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Through Monday)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Rockies high pressure ridge center will remain southwest of the
region, with the northern plains on the northern periphery and
fast flow aloft through most of the period. Mean ne pac upper
trough will remain in place, ejecting weak disturbances into
westerly flow. This will support periodic disturbances into the
area as general easterly upslope flow remains in place in the low
levels. Certainly not expecting any widespread precip, with
scattered nature to precip. Pac ne upper trough is progged to
shift east this weekend, supporting downstream ridging over the
northern plains and potential very hot and windy conds once again
by early next week.

General moist/easterly upslope flow will prevail in the period with
impulse laden wnw flow aloft. Diurnal convection is expected in the
area nearly every day, although coverage will be limited to sct-
isold. Fast wnw flow will support increased deep layer shear through
the period with sufficient cape given moist ll flow. Hence, there
will be a muted severe threat each day as an isolated severe storm
or two is possible given cape/shear progs. Lack of strong upper
level forcing precludes any widespread severe threat. As for temps,
seasonal conds forecast, with generally 80s for highs. Another sig
warm up looks likely early next week with a sfc low pressure pushing
the hot dome east into the region once again.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued At 520 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Areas of smoke from fires over the Bear Lodge mountains and
northern Black Hills will bring local MVFR/IFR visibility to the
northern Black Hills area at times. Isolated TSRA will continue
over the central/southern Black Hills through early evening.
There is the potential for a MVFR ceiling deck to develop across
western NE tonight and spread northwest into the area toward
morning. However, confidence for this remains low at this time.
Otherwise, strong to severe thunderstorms will develop over much
of northeastern Wyoming and southwestern South Dakota Tuesday
afternoon.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...Bunkers




000
FXUS65 KCYS 272146
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
346 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Afternoon water vapor loop showed a weak shortwave moving toward
western NE. This wave is encountering a very moist and unstable
airmass from western NE into eastern CO and western KS where SBCAPES
ranged from 3000-4000 j/kg and 0-6km shear of 40-50 kt. Latest
mesoanalysis placed the leading edge of 50+ deg dew points along
the lee side of the Laramie Range marked by enhanced cu cloud field.
Tstorms developed along eastern edge of CWA enhanced by low level
moisture convergence and differential heating. These storms
became severe quickly as they moved southeast along low level
theta-e ridge/instability axis. Other tstorms were firing over the
Black Hills SD and these may track south as right-movers per the
Bunkers vectors. Some convective inhibition (CIN) has kept
convective development limited over east-central WY and the northern
Laramie Range. Tornado Watch was issued for much of NE Panhandle
and far southeast WY until 8 pm MDT. Scattered tstorms will likely
persist through late evening over the NE portion of the CWA...with
more isolated activity over southeast WY.

Tuesday still looks to be more active than today in terms of severe
potential and convective coverage. A stronger shortwave topping the
upper ridge to the west will track southeast across eastern WY
and western NE during the afternoon and evening. NAM SBCAPES peak
between 3500 and 4500 j/kg mid-late afternoon Tuesday east of the
I-25 corridor. 0-6 km shear will be a tad stronger as well with
values around 50 kt. The SPC DAY2 outlook has an enhanced risk
for severe tstorms from extreme east-central WY into much of
western NE...mainly east of a line from Lusk WY to Kimball NE.
Looking at discrete supercells producing all modes of severe
weather...i.e. very large hail...damaging winds 60-70 mph and
isolated tornadoes. Severe threat may linger into the late evening
hours across the NE Panhandle. Convective coverage will be more
widely scattered along and west of the Laramie Range. High
temperatures will likely be reached by early afternoon with
readings in the 80s. Wednesday will be quieter with regards to
severe potential with only a marginal risk across the northeast
plains in the afternoon. High temperatures will be a few degrees
cooler...but still in the 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Wednesday night/Thursday...With decent upslope and low level
convergence, expect scattered evening thunderstorms Wednesday along
and east of I-25, then storms dissipating with loss of daytime
heating.  Same flow regime continues on Thursday with moist low level
easterly upslope and northwest flow aloft providing directional
shear. So, again scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms on
tap Thursday with some storms strong to severe based on shear and
instability.

Friday...Low and mid levels dry out slightly, thus less coverage of
afternoon and evening thunderstorms, focused especially across
western Nebraska where low level convergence will be maximized.

Saturday...Weak shortwave aloft progged to move across near peak
heating and combined with low and mid level moisture, expect
isolated to widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms
again.

Sunday...Atmosphere continues to dry out somewhat again with a
surface trough progged across far southeast Wyoming. Will continue
with mention of isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

July 4th...Fairly potent shortwave moves across central Montana with
notable warming at mid levels over our counties to near 18 Celsius
at 700 mb. With limited low and mid level moisture and warming aloft,
will leave out mention of thunderstorms for now as they look isolated
at best in this pattern, so hopefully outdoor activities will be near
perfect for the holiday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Wyoming TAFS...VFR at Rawlins and Laramie, with isolated
thunderstorms near Laramie from 20Z to 01Z. At Cheyenne, isolated
thunderstorms from 21Z to 02Z producing localized MVFR and gusts
to 40 knots, otherwise VFR prevails, except for IFR in fog from
10Z to 15Z.

Nebraska TAFS...VFR prevails. Scattered thunderstorms from 21Z to
03Z producing localized MVFR and wind gusts to 45 knots, otherwise
VFR. IFR in either fog or low clouds from 07Z to 15Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 308 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Moist unstable air...favorable wind shear and a passing upper
level disturbance will produce scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms for areas east of the Laramie Range today and
Tuesday. Some of the storms may be severe with large hail...heavy
rain and damaging winds. Areas west of the Laramie Range can
expect isolated afternoon thunderstorms...with the potential for
dry lightning over Carbon County. The unsettled weather pattern
will continue Wednesday through the weekend with isolated to
scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ




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