Home > Products > State Listing > Wyoming Data
Latest:
 AFDCYS |  AFDRIW |  AFDUNR |
  [top]

000
FXUS65 KRIW 240933
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
333 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

IMAGERY SHOWS FLAT RIDGING WITH BROAD TROFFING TO BOTH THE WEST AND
EAST. VERY STRONG JET OFF TO THE N AND ACROSS THE BORDER REGION OF
THE NW CONUS AND CA. AT THE SFC...WEAK TROF ACROSS NRN ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS W/ A WEAK FRONT SPLITTING MT THEN SWD THRU ERN
ID AND EVENTUALLY INTO NV.

STRONG WINDS AND SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTION PINNED AND BREAKING JUST
EAST OF THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF THE NRN ABSAROKAS TONIGHT. THESE WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...STRONG FLOW
ALOFT...WARM LL TEMPS WITH GOOD LAPSE RATES UP THRU 600 MB WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR VARIOUS WIND SCENARIOS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL COME UP ACROSS THE SRN/SERN WIND
CORRIDOR...WHILE NOCTURNAL WINDS INCREASE OVER/NEAR THE LEE PORTIONS
OF THE MAJOR MOUNTAIN RANGES...WITH PERHAPS SOME OCCASIONAL SPILL
INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS
CONDITIONS BECOME MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE PRODUCTION.
THE UPR LVLS TRANSITION INTO A MORE SOUTHWEST UPR FLOW PATTERN BY
SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACHING TROF AXIS...AND MOISTURE WILL START
TO FEED INTO THE WRN FA ALONG WITH INCREASING VORTICITY AND LIFT.
THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THRU AND ALLOW BOTH RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP SAT NIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN FA
THRU THE REST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ATTM...DEEP RELATIVELY WARM
TEMPS WILL KEEP THE SNOW ON THE WET AND ON THE LOWER END OF THE
ACCUMULATION SCALE...MAXING OUT AT 6 INCHES OVER THE HIGHEST
PEAKS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MONDAY WILL SEE THE WEATHER SYSTEM PASS THROUGH WY PRODUCING
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH SNOW FOR MOST MOUNTAINS. BRISK WIND IN
PLACES AND COOL HIGH TEMPS. THE SHOWERS END MONDAY EVENING. TUESDAY
LOOKS DRY FOR MOST AREAS...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NW
WY MOUNTAINS LATE TUE PM WITH INCREASING SHOWERS IN THE NW WY
MOUNTAINS TUE NIGHT. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE WEST WITH SNOW
IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. EAST OF THE DIVIDE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AT
BEST WITH SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS. THE
PRECIP ENDS WED NIGHT. AS FOR NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE ECMWF
MODEL IS DRY WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION. THE GFS HAS THURSDAY
DRY BUT THEN HAS SOME PRECIP IN THE WEST ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM. THIS MAY BE TOO FAST AND WILL NOT ADD ANY PRECIP TO
THE WEST AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPS TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE TUESDAY
WITH ONLY SLIGHT WARMING ON WED. NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
MILDER.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

CONCERN TODAY AGAIN WILL BE CONSIDERABLE MOUNTAIN TURBULENCE WITH
STRONG MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. LLWS ON THE LEE
SIDE OF MOUNTAIN RANGES IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AT COD AND
LND...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
CONSIDERABLE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED
TO WILL BECOME MAINLY SKC BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z. THERE COULD BE
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER EXTREME NW WYOMING THIS MORNING...BUT
SHOULD NOT IMPACT COD OR JAC. THUS VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
AT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY.

PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON
TURBULENCE FORECASTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT ENHANCED TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NATRONA COUNTY TODAY...THEN OVER
MOST BASINS AND VALLEYS EAST OF THE DIVIDE ON SATURDAY. MINIMUM RH
VALUES ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS
WHILE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES. SUNDAY...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST...LOWERING FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN





  [top]

000
FXUS63 KUNR 240921
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
321 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

STRONG UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE SCNTRL CONUS...WITH THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW CROSSING THE PACIFIC NW TO THE NRN PLAINS. UPPER
FLOW BRINGING IN PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S TODAY.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLIDE NORTH TODAY WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGING WILL EXTEND NRD SAT INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES/PLAINS...IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC
NW. SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED SAT WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 60S
TO UPPER 70S. WARMEST TEMPS TODAY WILL BE IN SCNTRL SD...BUT WARMEST
TEMPS SAT WILL SWITCH TO NE WY AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP W/ SE WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STICK AROUND A BIT
LONGER SUNDAY RESULTING IN CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. ENOUGH FORCING PRESENT TO OVERCOME DRY
AIR AND THUS WILL CONTINUE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WET BULB
ZERO PROFILES SUGGEST SOME SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
LATE AT NIGHT. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH SEASONAL FALL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD WITH A STREAM
OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON







  [top]

000
FXUS65 KCYS 240842
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
242 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

DENSE CIRRUS OVERHEAD THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. THIS
DENSER CIRRUS HAS HELPED KEEP EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES FAIRLY
WARM...WITH 2AM READINGS IN THE 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
MID 40S OUT IN THE PANHANDLE. RADAR MOSAIC PPINE FOR THE MOST
PART. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A VERY SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT...NEARLY STATIONARY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MONTANA TO
SOUTHEAST IDAHO INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING.

LOOKS LIKE THE CIRRUS SHOULD STAY WITH US THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH THE GFS NSHARP SOUNDINGS SHOWING A THINNING OUT THIS
AFTERNOON. COULD HOLD OUR TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME TODAY...BUT WE
SHOULD STILL SEE A WARM DAY WITH UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND LOW 70S WEST.

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS 700MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE +8 TO +10C RANGE. FRONT TO OUR WEST
VERY SLOW TO MOVE EAST...SO DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WE COULD START
SEEING SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING OUT WEST IN CARBON COUNTY. DID CUT
BACK ON POPS OUT THERE AS GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY SLOWER ON PRECIP
ONSET.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE
ACROSS OUR COUNTIES FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS OVER
THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES AND SOME DYNAMIC SHOWERS OVER OUR
FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.

MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT PASSAGE...MOIST
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE FAVORED NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE.

TUESDAY...SLOW WARMING TREND ON TAP AS THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO
MODERATE AND SURFACE LEE TROUGHING BECOMES WEAKLY ESTABLISHED DUE TO
WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED WARMING TREND AS HEIGHTS ALOFT AND THICKNESSES
RISE. STILL LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY DUE TO LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

THURSDAY...RIDGE AXIS ALOFT MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER OUR COUNTIES. MINIMAL LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...THUS STAYING DRY.

FRIDAY...HALLOWEEN DAY LOOKS DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD WITH STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...DECENT SURFACE LEE TROUGHING...AND LIMITED
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING PERIOD WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THERE WILL BE A SCT-BKN200 CLOUD LAYER
MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT...BUT THIS TOO SHOULD LESSEN BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AIRFIELDS 15-16Z ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KNOTS EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL RELAX AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 148 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WARM...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY COULD BE CLOSE TO
CRITICAL...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE IN FWZS 301...309 AND 310. FORTUNATELY THOUGH...WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME. BY
SUNDAY...WE DO SEE A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA THAT WILL
BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES TO THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB




000
FXUS65 KRIW 240550
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1150 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

THE RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF A STRONG 160KT UPPER JET WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA INTO FRIDAY MORNING KEEPING VERY STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS ON THE LEE SIDE OF MOUNTAIN RANGES. CHIEF JOSEPH
MEASURED A 71 MPH AT 9 PM THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH 12Z OVER THE ABSAROKA MTS...WITH THE
BULK OF THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAINING ABOVE THE CODY FOOTHILLS.
SPS STILL LOOKS GOOD IN THOSE AREAS. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A FEW SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST WYOMING...MAINLY YELLOWSTONE
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY...WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND WINDS
NOT BEING AS STRONG IN MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

WARM RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SRN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS LEADING TO A
VERY MILD SATURDAY WITH H7 TEMPERATURES BETWEEN +6C AND +9C. A FEW
TEMPERATURES RECORDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL WYO
WHERE READINGS WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS. THEN WE START A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE AS THE ERN PACIFIC UPPER LOW MOVES IN. THE SRN
PART OF THIS TROUGH MOVES IN FIRST ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
THE NRN PIECE FOLLOWING QUICKLY BEHIND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
STILL A LOT OF DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS BUT ENOUGH COLD AIR WITH
THIS SYSTEM FOR SNOW OUT WEST SUNDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW LINE
LOWERING TO THE VALLEY FLOOR. EAST OF THE DIVIDE...THE COLD AIR
FILTERS IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTH AND THEN SPREADING INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL WYO LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. NOT A REAL ORGANIZED OR CLOSED OFF
SYSTEM BUT ENOUGH FORCING...OROGRAPHICS OUT WEST AND SOME
FORCING...UPSLOPE EAST TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACCUMULATION IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE ALSO. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF
INCREASING POPS IN THE WEST SUNDAY AND THEN KEEP HIGH POPS IN THE
WEST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE INCREASING THEM IN THE NORTH AND THEN
WORKING SOUTH INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
AND SOUTH. BRIEF RIDGING TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IN THE NW
FLOW MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GFS HAS ANOTHER SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS THURSDAY WITH A FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
ACROSS OUR NRN AND ERN ZONES. THE ECMWF HAS A RIDGE AHEAD OF A
POTENTIAL SYSTEM BEYOND THE MEDIUM RANGE. STILL A LOT OF AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD AS TO THE EVOLUTION/MOVEMENT OF OUR SYSTEMS OVER
SIBERIA AND MOVING EWD. OP ECMWF AND GFS SHOW MORE SPLITTING WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THUS MUCH MORE ENERGY/UPPER LOW FORMING OVER THE ERN
PACIFIC LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GFS HAS A LITTLE MORE ENERGY RIDING OVER
THE AK RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THUS A STRONGER SYSTEM DIVING INTO
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS ON THURSDAY WITH MAINLY DRY FRONTAL SYSTEM
IMPACTING OUR AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE. CONFIDENCE STILL LOW ON THE
LAST COUPLE DAYS OF THIS PERIOD AND BEYOND WITH MORE ACTIVE
HEMISPHERIC 5 WAVE DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

CONCERN FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLE
MOUNTAIN TURBULENCE WITH STRONG MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LLWS ON THE LEE SIDE OF MOUNTAIN RANGES IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING AT COD AND LND...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CONSIDERABLE HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO WILL BECOME MAINLY SKC
BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z. THERE COULD BE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
EXTREME NW WYOMING THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT COD OR
JAC. THUS VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT AREA TERMINALS
THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BEING
THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY.

PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON
TURBULENCE FORECASTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE
THE STRONG WINDS OCCURRING THE MOUNTAINS AND IN THE TYPICAL WIND
CORRIDORS. OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NATRONA COUNTY /FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 280/ THERE BE A COMBINATION OF LOW RH BETWEEN 15 AND
20 PERCENT AND BREEZY WINDS TO CREATE ELEVATED FIRE BEHAVIOR.
THERE COULD BE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER EXTREME NORTHWEST WYOMING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THEY WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND NO
WETTING RAIN WILL OCCUR.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TEAM RIVERTON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...TEAM RIVERTON






000
FXUS63 KUNR 240502
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1102 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS BROAD RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ARE PARTLY SUNNY WITH MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CROSSING
THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE WITH LEE
TROF DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ARE IN THE 60S AND 70S...WITH LIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT WINDS PERSISTING. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN ON FRIDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S...WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
CONTINUING.


&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER AND WARMER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MUCH OF
SUNDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. COOLER AIR FLOWING INTO THE
REGION WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A BIT
OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL END
ON MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S IS THEN EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...7







000
FXUS63 KUNR 240502
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1102 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS BROAD RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ARE PARTLY SUNNY WITH MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CROSSING
THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE WITH LEE
TROF DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ARE IN THE 60S AND 70S...WITH LIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT WINDS PERSISTING. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN ON FRIDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S...WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
CONTINUING.


&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER AND WARMER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MUCH OF
SUNDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. COOLER AIR FLOWING INTO THE
REGION WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A BIT
OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL END
ON MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S IS THEN EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...7







000
FXUS65 KCYS 240459
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1059 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST ALL OF THE
SHORT TERM (TNGT THRU SAT MRNG). THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
SLOWLY BUILDING HEIGHTS AND A DOMINANT LARGE-SCALE RIDGE ACROSS
THE CNTRL CONUS. THE MAIN ITEMS OF INTEREST WILL BE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS AND RELATIVELY WARM WEATHER.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND RAP MODEL ANALYSES INDICATED A
150-KT 300-MB JET CROSSING OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH CONSIDERABLE
MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE NWRN CONUS. ALTHOUGH A
THICK PATCH OF CIRRUS MOVED ACROSS THE CWA EARLIER TODAY...THE WATER
VAPOR TRAJECTORY SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE CIRRUS WILL REMAIN NW OF
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY LATE TNGT AND FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.
UNTIL THEN...EXPECT SOME PERIODIC DENSE CIRRUS PATCHES AS THE JET
INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINS. BUFKIT TIME-SECTIONS FOR KCYS SUPPORT
THIS AS WELL.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST-WINDS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY NEAR RIDGE TOPS TNGT AS
700-MB FLOW IS 30-45 KT FROM THE WEST WITH WEAK COLD-ADVECTION THAT
WILL PROMOTE MIXING. LOOKS TO BE JUST BELOW HIGH WIND WRNG CRITERIA
BUT IT DOES BEAR WATCHING. ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY THEY SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MUTED AS 700-MB WIND SPEEDS DECREASE
BY 5-10 KT AND THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.

GIVEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND 700-MB TEMPS OF 7-10C ACROSS THE CWA THE
TEMPS WILL BE 15-20F ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM...AND
APPROACHING RECORD LEVELS ON FRIDAY. THE RH ALSO WILL DROP TO NEAR
15 PERCENT ACROSS THE SERN WY PLAINS ON FRI AFTN. FRI NGT WILL AGAIN
BE QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS
RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY. HIGHS WILL
BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA DURING THE DAY.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS FURTHER EAST...ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...WITH CHANCES SPREADING OVER THE REST OF THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS COLDER AIR PUSHES IN SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY OVER AT
LEAST THE SOUTH CENTRAL WY MOUNTAINS.

SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A WARMUP POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING PERIOD WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THERE WILL BE A SCT-BKN200 CLOUD LAYER
MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT...BUT THIS TOO SHOULD LESSEN BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AIRFIELDS 15-16Z ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KNOTS EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL RELAX AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

CONTINUED WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS EACH AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY...FUELS
ARE REPORTED AS GREEN FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN CONSIDERABLY FROM
LATE SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
TRACKS THROUGH THE ROCKIES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS/WFOUNR
LONG TERM...WFOUNR
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...WFOUNR




000
FXUS65 KCYS 240459
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1059 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST ALL OF THE
SHORT TERM (TNGT THRU SAT MRNG). THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
SLOWLY BUILDING HEIGHTS AND A DOMINANT LARGE-SCALE RIDGE ACROSS
THE CNTRL CONUS. THE MAIN ITEMS OF INTEREST WILL BE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS AND RELATIVELY WARM WEATHER.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND RAP MODEL ANALYSES INDICATED A
150-KT 300-MB JET CROSSING OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH CONSIDERABLE
MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE NWRN CONUS. ALTHOUGH A
THICK PATCH OF CIRRUS MOVED ACROSS THE CWA EARLIER TODAY...THE WATER
VAPOR TRAJECTORY SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE CIRRUS WILL REMAIN NW OF
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY LATE TNGT AND FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.
UNTIL THEN...EXPECT SOME PERIODIC DENSE CIRRUS PATCHES AS THE JET
INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINS. BUFKIT TIME-SECTIONS FOR KCYS SUPPORT
THIS AS WELL.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST-WINDS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY NEAR RIDGE TOPS TNGT AS
700-MB FLOW IS 30-45 KT FROM THE WEST WITH WEAK COLD-ADVECTION THAT
WILL PROMOTE MIXING. LOOKS TO BE JUST BELOW HIGH WIND WRNG CRITERIA
BUT IT DOES BEAR WATCHING. ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY THEY SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MUTED AS 700-MB WIND SPEEDS DECREASE
BY 5-10 KT AND THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.

GIVEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND 700-MB TEMPS OF 7-10C ACROSS THE CWA THE
TEMPS WILL BE 15-20F ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM...AND
APPROACHING RECORD LEVELS ON FRIDAY. THE RH ALSO WILL DROP TO NEAR
15 PERCENT ACROSS THE SERN WY PLAINS ON FRI AFTN. FRI NGT WILL AGAIN
BE QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS
RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY. HIGHS WILL
BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA DURING THE DAY.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS FURTHER EAST...ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...WITH CHANCES SPREADING OVER THE REST OF THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS COLDER AIR PUSHES IN SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY OVER AT
LEAST THE SOUTH CENTRAL WY MOUNTAINS.

SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A WARMUP POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING PERIOD WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THERE WILL BE A SCT-BKN200 CLOUD LAYER
MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT...BUT THIS TOO SHOULD LESSEN BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AIRFIELDS 15-16Z ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KNOTS EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL RELAX AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

CONTINUED WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS EACH AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY...FUELS
ARE REPORTED AS GREEN FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN CONSIDERABLY FROM
LATE SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
TRACKS THROUGH THE ROCKIES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS/WFOUNR
LONG TERM...WFOUNR
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...WFOUNR




000
FXUS65 KCYS 240015
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
615 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST ALL OF THE
SHORT TERM (TNGT THRU SAT MRNG). THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
SLOWLY BUILDING HEIGHTS AND A DOMINANT LARGE-SCALE RIDGE ACROSS
THE CNTRL CONUS. THE MAIN ITEMS OF INTEREST WILL BE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS AND RELATIVELY WARM WEATHER.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND RAP MODEL ANALYSES INDICATED A
150-KT 300-MB JET CROSSING OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH CONSIDERABLE
MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE NWRN CONUS. ALTHOUGH A
THICK PATCH OF CIRRUS MOVED ACROSS THE CWA EARLIER TODAY...THE WATER
VAPOR TRAJECTORY SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE CIRRUS WILL REMAIN NW OF
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY LATE TNGT AND FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.
UNTIL THEN...EXPECT SOME PERIODIC DENSE CIRRUS PATCHES AS THE JET
INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINS. BUFKIT TIME-SECTIONS FOR KCYS SUPPORT
THIS AS WELL.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST-WINDS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY NEAR RIDGE TOPS TNGT AS
700-MB FLOW IS 30-45 KT FROM THE WEST WITH WEAK COLD-ADVECTION THAT
WILL PROMOTE MIXING. LOOKS TO BE JUST BELOW HIGH WIND WRNG CRITERIA
BUT IT DOES BEAR WATCHING. ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY THEY SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MUTED AS 700-MB WIND SPEEDS DECREASE
BY 5-10 KT AND THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.

GIVEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND 700-MB TEMPS OF 7-10C ACROSS THE CWA THE
TEMPS WILL BE 15-20F ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM...AND
APPROACHING RECORD LEVELS ON FRIDAY. THE RH ALSO WILL DROP TO NEAR
15 PERCENT ACROSS THE SERN WY PLAINS ON FRI AFTN. FRI NGT WILL AGAIN
BE QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS
RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY. HIGHS WILL
BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA DURING THE DAY.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS FURTHER EAST...ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...WITH CHANCES SPREADING OVER THE REST OF THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS COLDER AIR PUSHES IN SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY OVER AT
LEAST THE SOUTH CENTRAL WY MOUNTAINS.

SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A WARMUP POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING PERIOD WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THERE WILL BE A SCT-BKN200 CLOUD LAYER MOVING
OVERHEAD TONIGHT...BUT THESE TOO SHOULD LESSEN BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.
WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AIRFIELDS 15-16Z
ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KNOTS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

CONTINUED WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS EACH AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY...FUELS
ARE REPORTED AS GREEN FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN CONSIDERABLY FROM
LATE SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
TRACKS THROUGH THE ROCKIES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS/WFOUNR
LONG TERM...WFOUNR
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...WFOUNR




000
FXUS65 KCYS 232050
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
250 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST ALL OF THE
SHORT TERM (TNGT THRU SAT MRNG). THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
SLOWLY BUILDING HEIGHTS AND A DOMINANT LARGE-SCALE RIDGE ACROSS
THE CNTRL CONUS. THE MAIN ITEMS OF INTEREST WILL BE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS AND RELATIVELY WARM WEATHER.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND RAP MODEL ANALYSES INDICATED A
150-KT 300-MB JET CROSSING OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH CONSIDERABLE
MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE NWRN CONUS. ALTHOUGH A
THICK PATCH OF CIRRUS MOVED ACROSS THE CWA EARLIER TODAY...THE WATER
VAPOR TRAJECTORY SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE CIRRUS WILL REMAIN NW OF
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY LATE TNGT AND FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.
UNTIL THEN...EXPECT SOME PERIODIC DENSE CIRRUS PATCHES AS THE JET
INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINS. BUFKIT TIME-SECTIONS FOR KCYS SUPPORT
THIS AS WELL.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST-WINDS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY NEAR RIDGE TOPS TNGT AS
700-MB FLOW IS 30-45 KT FROM THE WEST WITH WEAK COLD-ADVECTION THAT
WILL PROMOTE MIXING. LOOKS TO BE JUST BELOW HIGH WIND WRNG CRITERIA
BUT IT DOES BEAR WATCHING. ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY THEY SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MUTED AS 700-MB WIND SPEEDS DECREASE
BY 5-10 KT AND THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.

GIVEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND 700-MB TEMPS OF 7-10C ACROSS THE CWA THE
TEMPS WILL BE 15-20F ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM...AND
APPROACHING RECORD LEVELS ON FRIDAY. THE RH ALSO WILL DROP TO NEAR
15 PERCENT ACROSS THE SERN WY PLAINS ON FRI AFTN. FRI NGT WILL AGAIN
BE QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS
RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY. HIGHS WILL
BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA DURING THE DAY.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS FURTHER EAST...ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...WITH CHANCES SPREADING OVER THE REST OF THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS COLDER AIR PUSHES IN SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY OVER AT
LEAST THE SOUTH CENTRAL WY MOUNTAINS.

SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A WARMUP POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WY...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KNOTS
EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

CONTINUED WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS EACH AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY...FUELS
ARE REPORTED AS GREEN FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN CONSIDERABLY FROM
LATE SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
TRACKS THROUGH THE ROCKIES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS/WFOUNR
LONG TERM...WFOUNR
AVIATION...WFOUNR
FIRE WEATHER...WFOUNR





000
FXUS63 KUNR 232046
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
246 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS BROAD RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ARE PARTLY SUNNY WITH MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CROSSING
THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE WITH LEE
TROF DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ARE IN THE 60S AND 70S...WITH LIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT WINDS PERSISTING. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN ON FRIDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S...WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
CONTINUING.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER AND WARMER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MUCH OF
SUNDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. COOLER AIR FLOWING INTO THE
REGION WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A BIT
OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL END
ON MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S IS THEN EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10







000
FXUS65 KCYS 231727
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1127 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

HAVE MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO CLOUDS AND TEMPS FOR TODAY GIVEN A
LITTLE THICKER CIRRUS. THIS WILL CUT BACK TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES
IN SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

BEAUTIFUL WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
PACNW THIS MORNING. WE COULD SEE SOME OF THE CIRRUS AND MID CLOUDS
FROM THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND HAVE CONTINUED THE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. CLOUDS COULD LIMIT
AFTERNOON HIGHS. WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES OF +6 TO +8C THOUGH...WE
SHOULD SEE MID 70S IN THE PANHANDLE AND MID 60S WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.

FRONT DOES NOT MAKE MUCH OF A PUSH INTO THE ROCKIES AS BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF STALL IT OUT OVER NORTHERN IDAHO AND WESTERN
MONTANA. SO EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. ONE THING
THIS FRONT WILL DO THOUGH IS PICK UP OUR WINDS. GFS 700MB WINDS
INCREASE TO 40KTS FRIDAY MORNING WITH CRAIG TO CASPER 700MB HEIGHT
GRADIENTS CLOSE TO 50MTRS ON THE GFS. WE SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW
HIGH WIND CRITERIA FOR OUR WIND PRONE AREAS...BUT WE NEED TO BE
WATCHING CLOSELY.

RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO MOVE OVER EASTERN WYOMING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR OUR WARMEST DAY IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE. GFS 700MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO +8 TO +10C. COULD SEE SOME 80 HIGHS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE AND CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING
WITH LOW 70S OUT WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE SAME GENERAL IDEA
ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER BRINGING IN COLDER AIR. THIS
WILL BE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA SO FAR
THIS SEASON BUT STILL ONLY LOOKING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF OCTOBER. CURRENTLY...STILL
HAVE A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...BUT AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY BE MINIMAL DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT DYNAMIC FORCING
AND SOME DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LLVL WINDS. CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH PERHAPS
3 TO 6 INCHES ABOVE 8000 FEET. RAIN WILL LIKELY MIX AND EVENTUALLY
CHANGE TO SNOW WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT INCREASED SUNDAYS HIGHS A FEW DEGREES SINCE
GUIDANCE TENDS TO HAVE A COLD BIAS AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
DURING THE DAY.

MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BEING THAT THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY COOLER
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND GEM...AND SHOWS MORE IN THE WAY OF COOL
NORTHWEST FLOW WHILE THE ECMWF IS ZONAL. PRETTY CONFIDENT IT WILL
BE DRY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SO KEPT POP ON THE LOW SIDE.
KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR...AND GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. EVEN IF THE 00Z
GFS VERIFIES...IT WILL ONLY BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WY...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KNOTS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

CONTINUED WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS EACH AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY...FUELS
ARE REPORTED AS GREEN FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN CONSIDERABLY FROM
LATE SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
TRACKS THROUGH THE ROCKIES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BUNKERS/WFOUNR
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...WFOUNR
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB







000
FXUS65 KRIW 231720
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1120 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

OVERNIGHT SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED
WITH A DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST CLIPPING OUR WESTERN BORDER WITH
IDAHO. IT WILL RESULT IN LITTLE MORE THAN SOME ENHANCED CLOUD COVER
BEFORE IT SHOOTS OFF TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
DYNAMIC SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AND WEST POWERED BY A STRONG 160KT JET
CORE WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE RIDGE FIGHTING FOR POSITION TO OUR SOUTH FINALLY WINS OUT.

ANOTHER WINDY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE FORECAST AREA AS THIS SYSTEM
TO OUR NORTHWEST BUTS UP AGAINST THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH...LEAVING
OUR AREA RIGHT IN BETWEEN THE TWO. A PERIOD OF 20 TO 40 KNOT
WESTERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY MIX DOWN THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL
LATER BE FORCED DOWN TONIGHT BY THE SUBSIDENT RIGHT EXIT REGION OF
THE JET TO OUR NORTH. THE AREAS THAT WILL BE IMPACTED THE MOST BY
THIS JET INTERACTION WILL BE THE CODY FOOTHILLS AND THE ABSAROKAS
WHERE A HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS. STEADY 40 KNOT WESTERLIES ACROSS
THE ABSAROKAS WILL PROVIDE THE PERFECT FLOW FOR BREAKING MOUNTAIN
WAVE ACTION LATER THIS EVENING...THAT COMBINED WITH A LITTLE HELP
FROM THE JET WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF THIS MOUNTAIN WAVE
SURFACING AROUND CLARK AND WEST CODY BETWEEN SUNSET TONIGHT AND
SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.

SWIFT WESTERLIES HANG AROUND ON FRIDAY BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
AROUND TO FORCE THESE WINDS TO THE SURFACE...THE GRADIENT AT THE
SURFACE WILL BE MUCH LOOSER AND THE JET STREAK TO OUR NORTH WILL BE
MORE ZONAL AND THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH.
OTHERWISE...WE WILL START TO FEEL MORE INFLUENCE FORM THE RIDGE TO
OUR SOUTH WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY.

FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EAST AND THE TROUGH DIGGING TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO ADVANCE. IT WILL
BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE ON SATURDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH A
LEE TROUGH DIGGING TO OUR EAST. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH
COULD BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR WEST AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...SO
KEPT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW BUT
TIMING THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM IS STILL DIFFICULT TO
PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A WEATHER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE WEST
SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVES EAST OF THE DIVIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. BREEZY TO WINDY AREAS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW. MONDAY LOOKS COOL WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. DECREASING CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT. DRY ON TUESDAY MOST AREAS AND A LITTLE MILDER.
ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP LATER TUE AFTERNOON IN NW
WY. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO THE
MOUNTAINS OF WY TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS ON WED. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE CLOSE WITH THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGHS WED LOOKS A TAD WARMER.
NEXT THURSDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY PER THE MODELS WITH ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS...AND THAT MAY BE OVERDONE AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL LEAVE
THEM IN AND SEE HOW THINGS LOOK TONIGHT. SEASONAL HIGH TEMPS NEXT
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD WILL BE CONSIDERABLE
MOUNTAIN TURBULENCE...AS WELL AS LLWS ESPECIALLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF
THE ABSAROKA AND WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS INCLUDING COD AND LND
TERMINALS. VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT AREA TERMINALS WITH
ONLY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TODAY. THERE COULD BE SOME
CONVECTION TONIGHT NW OF A KJAC-KCOD LINE...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND REMAIN AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS.

PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON
TURBULENCE FORECASTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WARMER AND DRY TODAY BUT IT WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IN SPOTS WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH COMMON BETWEEN ROCK SPRINGS AND
CASPER AND OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE NORTH ZONE OF THE SHOSHONE AND IN THE CODY FOOTHILLS THIS
EVENING WITH SUDDEN 50 TO 60MPH WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. SOUTHWEST FLOW
RETURNS ON FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS REMAINING. THERE
COULD BE A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON BETWEEN RAWLINS
AND SOUTHERN CASPER DISPATCH BUT MOST AREAS WILL HAVE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WYZ003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN









000
FXUS63 KUNR 231714
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1111 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IS CURRENTLY SLIDING ACROSS
THE AREA...LIMITING INSOLATION. WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...HAVE TRIMMED HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND TEMPS ARE
FALLING INTO THE 30S AND 40S.

UPPER HIGH OVER THE SW US WILL RESULT IN DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR
THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 60S
TO LOW 70S. CANADIAN UPPER LOW WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...CREATING ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION. WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD
HELP KEEP LOWS UP TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE 40S. THEN AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...A COOL FRONT WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
ACROSS NORTHWEST SD...THE BLACK HILLS...AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST
WY...TO THE UPPER 70S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
BECOME A BIT BREEZY ACROSS THE SD PLAINS...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE IN ND.


&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 1010 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY AS A TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE CWA
LATER SUNDAY BRINGING A COLD FRONT AND SOME SHOWERS. COULD BE COLD
ENOUGH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR A BIT OF SNOW AT NIGHT. SHOWERS
WILL END TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...10










000
FXUS63 KUNR 231714
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1111 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IS CURRENTLY SLIDING ACROSS
THE AREA...LIMITING INSOLATION. WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...HAVE TRIMMED HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND TEMPS ARE
FALLING INTO THE 30S AND 40S.

UPPER HIGH OVER THE SW US WILL RESULT IN DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR
THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 60S
TO LOW 70S. CANADIAN UPPER LOW WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...CREATING ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION. WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD
HELP KEEP LOWS UP TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE 40S. THEN AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...A COOL FRONT WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
ACROSS NORTHWEST SD...THE BLACK HILLS...AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST
WY...TO THE UPPER 70S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
BECOME A BIT BREEZY ACROSS THE SD PLAINS...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE IN ND.


&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 1010 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY AS A TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE CWA
LATER SUNDAY BRINGING A COLD FRONT AND SOME SHOWERS. COULD BE COLD
ENOUGH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR A BIT OF SNOW AT NIGHT. SHOWERS
WILL END TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...10










000
FXUS65 KCYS 231548
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
948 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

HAVE MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO CLOUDS AND TEMPS FOR TODAY GIVEN A
LITTLE THICKER CIRRUS. THIS WILL CUT BACK TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES
IN SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

BEAUTIFUL WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
PACNW THIS MORNING. WE COULD SEE SOME OF THE CIRRUS AND MID CLOUDS
FROM THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND HAVE CONTINUED THE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. CLOUDS COULD LIMIT
AFTERNOON HIGHS. WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES OF +6 TO +8C THOUGH...WE
SHOULD SEE MID 70S IN THE PANHANDLE AND MID 60S WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.

FRONT DOES NOT MAKE MUCH OF A PUSH INTO THE ROCKIES AS BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF STALL IT OUT OVER NORTHERN IDAHO AND WESTERN
MONTANA. SO EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. ONE THING
THIS FRONT WILL DO THOUGH IS PICK UP OUR WINDS. GFS 700MB WINDS
INCREASE TO 40KTS FRIDAY MORNING WITH CRAIG TO CASPER 700MB HEIGHT
GRADIENTS CLOSE TO 50MTRS ON THE GFS. WE SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW
HIGH WIND CRITERIA FOR OUR WIND PRONE AREAS...BUT WE NEED TO BE
WATCHING CLOSELY.

RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO MOVE OVER EASTERN WYOMING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR OUR WARMEST DAY IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE. GFS 700MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO +8 TO +10C. COULD SEE SOME 80 HIGHS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE AND CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING
WITH LOW 70S OUT WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE SAME GENERAL IDEA
ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER BRINGING IN COLDER AIR. THIS
WILL BE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA SO FAR
THIS SEASON BUT STILL ONLY LOOKING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF OCTOBER. CURRENTLY...STILL
HAVE A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...BUT AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY BE MINIMAL DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT DYNAMIC FORCING
AND SOME DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LLVL WINDS. CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH PERHAPS
3 TO 6 INCHES ABOVE 8000 FEET. RAIN WILL LIKELY MIX AND EVENTUALLY
CHANGE TO SNOW WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT INCREASED SUNDAYS HIGHS A FEW DEGREES SINCE
GUIDANCE TENDS TO HAVE A COLD BIAS AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
DURING THE DAY.

MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BEING THAT THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY COOLER
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND GEM...AND SHOWS MORE IN THE WAY OF COOL
NORTHWEST FLOW WHILE THE ECMWF IS ZONAL. PRETTY CONFIDENT IT WILL
BE DRY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SO KEPT POP ON THE LOW SIDE.
KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR...AND GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. EVEN IF THE 00Z
GFS VERIFIES...IT WILL ONLY BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 35 KNOTS
POSSIBLE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

CONTINUED WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS EACH AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY...FUELS
ARE REPORTED AS GREEN FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN CONSIDERABLY FROM
LATE SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
TRACKS THROUGH THE ROCKIES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BUNKERS/WFOUNR
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB





000
FXUS63 KUNR 231537
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
937 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IS CURRENTLY SLIDING ACROSS
THE AREA...LIMITING INSOLATION. WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...HAVE TRIMMED HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND TEMPS ARE
FALLING INTO THE 30S AND 40S.

UPPER HIGH OVER THE SW US WILL RESULT IN DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR
THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 60S
TO LOW 70S. CANADIAN UPPER LOW WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...CREATING ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION. WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD
HELP KEEP LOWS UP TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE 40S. THEN AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...A COOL FRONT WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
ACROSS NORTHWEST SD...THE BLACK HILLS...AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST
WY...TO THE UPPER 70S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
BECOME A BIT BREEZY ACROSS THE SD PLAINS...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE IN ND.



&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY AS A TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE CWA
LATER SUNDAY BRINGING A COLD FRONT AND SOME SHOWERS. COULD BE COLD
ENOUGH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR A BIT OF SNOW AT NIGHT. SHOWERS
WILL END TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON







000
FXUS65 KRIW 230922
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
322 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

OVERNIGHT SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED
WITH A DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST CLIPPING OUR WESTERN BORDER WITH
IDAHO. IT WILL RESULT IN LITTLE MORE THAN SOME ENHANCED CLOUD COVER
BEFORE IT SHOOTS OFF TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
DYNAMIC SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AND WEST POWERED BY A STRONG 160KT JET
CORE WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE RIDGE FIGHTING FOR POSITION TO OUR SOUTH FINALLY WINS OUT.

ANOTHER WINDY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE FORECAST AREA AS THIS SYSTEM
TO OUR NORTHWEST BUTS UP AGAINST THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH...LEAVING
OUR AREA RIGHT IN BETWEEN THE TWO. A PERIOD OF 20 TO 40 KNOT
WESTERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY MIX DOWN THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL
LATER BE FORCED DOWN TONIGHT BY THE SUBSIDENT RIGHT EXIT REGION OF
THE JET TO OUR NORTH. THE AREAS THAT WILL BE IMPACTED THE MOST BY
THIS JET INTERACTION WILL BE THE CODY FOOTHILLS AND THE ABSAROKAS
WHERE A HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS. STEADY 40 KNOT WESTERLIES ACROSS
THE ABSAROKAS WILL PROVIDE THE PERFECT FLOW FOR BREAKING MOUNTAIN
WAVE ACTION LATER THIS EVENING...THAT COMBINED WITH A LITTLE HELP
FROM THE JET WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF THIS MOUNTAIN WAVE
SURFACING AROUND CLARK AND WEST CODY BETWEEN SUNSET TONIGHT AND
SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.

SWIFT WESTERLIES HANG AROUND ON FRIDAY BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
AROUND TO FORCE THESE WINDS TO THE SURFACE...THE GRADIENT AT THE
SURFACE WILL BE MUCH LOOSER AND THE JET STREAK TO OUR NORTH WILL BE
MORE ZONAL AND THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH.
OTHERWISE...WE WILL START TO FEEL MORE INFLUENCE FORM THE RIDGE TO
OUR SOUTH WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY.

FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EAST AND THE TROUGH DIGGING TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO ADVANCE. IT WILL
BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE ON SATURDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH A
LEE TROUGH DIGGING TO OUR EAST. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH
COULD BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR WEST AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...SO
KEPT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW BUT
TIMING THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM IS STILL DIFFICULT TO
PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A WEATHER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE WEST
SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVES EAST OF THE DIVIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. BREEZY TO WINDY AREAS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW. MONDAY LOOKS COOL WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. DECREASING CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT. DRY ON TUESDAY MOST AREAS AND A LITTLE MILDER.
ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP LATER TUE AFTERNOON IN NW
WY. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO THE
MOUNTAINS OF WY TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS ON WED. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE CLOSE WITH THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGHS WED LOOKS A TAD WARMER.
NEXT THURSDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY PER THE MODELS WITH ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS...AND THAT MAY BE OVERDONE AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL LEAVE
THEM IN AND SEE HOW THINGS LOOK TONIGHT. SEASONAL HIGH TEMPS NEXT
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD WILL BE CONSIDERABLE
MOUNTAIN TURBULENCE...AS WELL AS LLWS ESPECIALLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF
THE ABSAROKA AND WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS INCLUDING COD AND LND
TERMINALS. VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT AREA TERMINALS WITH
ONLY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TODAY. THERE COULD BE SOME
CONVECTION TONIGHT NW OF A KJAC-KCOD LINE...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND REMAIN AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS.

PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON
TURBULENCE FORECASTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WARMER AND DRY TODAY BUT IT WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IN SPOTS WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH COMMON BETWEEN ROCK SPRINGS AND
CASPER AND OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE NORTH ZONE OF THE SHOSHONE AND IN THE CODY FOOTHILLS THIS
EVENING WITH SUDDEN 50 TO 60MPH WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. SOUTHWEST FLOW
RETURNS ON FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS REMAINING. THERE
COULD BE A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON BETWEEN RAWLINS
AND SOUTHERN CASPER DISPATCH BUT MOST AREAS WILL HAVE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WYZ003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN






000
FXUS65 KCYS 230917
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
317 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

BEAUTIFUL WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
PACNW THIS MORNING. WE COULD SEE SOME OF THE CIRRUS AND MID CLOUDS
FROM THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND HAVE CONTINUED THE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. CLOUDS COULD LIMIT
AFTERNOON HIGHS. WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES OF +6 TO +8C THOUGH...WE
SHOULD SEE MID 70S IN THE PANHANDLE AND MID 60S WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.

FRONT DOES NOT MAKE MUCH OF A PUSH INTO THE ROCKIES AS BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF STALL IT OUT OVER NORTHERN IDAHO AND WESTERN
MONTANA. SO EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. ONE THING
THIS FRONT WILL DO THOUGH IS PICK UP OUR WINDS. GFS 700MB WINDS
INCREASE TO 40KTS FRIDAY MORNING WITH CRAIG TO CASPER 700MB HEIGHT
GRADIENTS CLOSE TO 50MTRS ON THE GFS. WE SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW
HIGH WIND CRITERIA FOR OUR WIND PRONE AREAS...BUT WE NEED TO BE
WATCHING CLOSELY.

RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO MOVE OVER EASTERN WYOMING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR OUR WARMEST DAY IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE. GFS 700MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO +8 TO +10C. COULD SEE SOME 80 HIGHS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE AND CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING
WITH LOW 70S OUT WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE SAME GENERAL IDEA
ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER BRINGING IN COLDER AIR. THIS
WILL BE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA SO FAR
THIS SEASON BUT STILL ONLY LOOKING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF OCTOBER. CURRENTLY...STILL
HAVE A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...BUT AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY BE MINIMAL DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT DYNAMIC FORCING
AND SOME DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LLVL WINDS. CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH PERHAPS
3 TO 6 INCHES ABOVE 8000 FEET. RAIN WILL LIKELY MIX AND EVENTUALLY
CHANGE TO SNOW WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT INCREASED SUNDAYS HIGHS A FEW DEGREES SINCE
GUIDANCE TENDS TO HAVE A COLD BIAS AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
DURING THE DAY.

MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BEING THAT THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY COOLER
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND GEM...AND SHOWS MORE IN THE WAY OF COOL
NORTHWEST FLOW WHILE THE ECMWF IS ZONAL. PRETTY CONFIDENT IT WILL
BE DRY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SO KEPT POP ON THE LOW SIDE.
KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR...AND GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. EVEN IF THE 00Z
GFS VERIFIES...IT WILL ONLY BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 35 KNOTS
POSSIBLE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

CONTINUED WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS EACH AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY...FUELS
ARE REPORTED AS GREEN FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN CONSIDERABLY FROM
LATE SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
TRACKS THROUGH THE ROCKIES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB









000
FXUS63 KUNR 230823
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
223 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND TEMPS ARE
FALLING INTO THE 30S AND 40S.

UPPER HIGH OVER THE SW US WILL RESULT IN DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR
THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 60S
TO LOW 70S. CANADIAN UPPER LOW WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...CREATING ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION. WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD
HELP KEEP LOWS UP TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE 40S. THEN AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...A COOL FRONT WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
ACROSS NORTHWEST SD...THE BLACK HILLS...AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST
WY...TO THE UPPER 70S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
BECOME A BIT BREEZY ACROSS THE SD PLAINS...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE IN ND.


&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY AS A TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE CWA
LATER SUNDAY BRINGING A COLD FRONT AND SOME SHOWERS. COULD BE COLD
ENOUGH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR A BIT OF SNOW AT NIGHT. SHOWERS
WILL END TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON







000
FXUS65 KRIW 230528
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1128 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

A DRY STABLE CONFLUENT FLOW HAS ENSUED OVER THE AREA AS TUESDAYS
TROUGH EXITS THE AREA AND A FLATTENING RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. THE TREND THROUGH THU WILL BE FOR INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE FLATTENING RIDGE AND THE CLOSED
LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA CHURNS OUT ANOTHER CLOSED LOW EAST
ACROSS CANADA AND SLINGS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...AND AT THE SAME TIME A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING WEST WINDS WILL RESPOND TO
THIS SET UP... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPE OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN WIND CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION...WEST
WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE AREA NORTH OF CODY
BY LATE THU AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY AROUND CLARK AS A POTENTIAL MTN
WAVE...ALBEIT RELATIVELY WEAK...DEVELOPS. A FROUDE NUMBER OF 1 BY
00Z FRI IN THAT AREA AS WELL AS A PROGGED CRITICAL LAYER ABOVE THE
ABSAROKA MTNS REFLECTS THIS NOTION. IN ADDITION...THE WEST
SOUTHWEST DIFLUENT FLOW WILL RESULT IN ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE FAR NW MTNS LATE THU. SOUTHWEST WEST WINDS HAVE ALREADY KICKED
IN ALONG THE SOUTHERN WIND CORRIDOR FROM THE GREEN MTNS TO KCPR.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THU. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER EVERYWHERE THU AS THE COOL AIR BEHIND
WEDNESDAYS TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

POTENTIAL MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT TO START THIS PERIOD IN THE CODY
FOOTHILLS AS POTENTIALLY FAVORABLE MOUNTAIN TOP CONDITIONS COMBINE
WITH APPROACHING RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF 150KT+ UPPER JET AND MODERATE
GAP FLOW SIGNATURE. NAM12 IS PICKING UP A PERIOD OF UPSTREAM
MOUNTAIN TOP INVERSION AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE WRF
CROSS SECTION IS SHOWING A PERIOD IN THE EVENING THURSDAY OF
POTENTIAL FLOW REVERSAL OR AT LEAST POTENTIAL FOR WAVE INDUCED
CRITICAL LAYER. FROUDE CALCULATIONS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT ARE PRETTY
CONSISTENT IN THE 1 RANGE. WRF BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE ON THE FLATS BUT GET OVER 50KTS NEAR THE STEEP TERRAIN.
POTENTIAL IS GREAT ENOUGH TO AT LEAST GET THE WATCH OUT AS THERE ARE
ENOUGH FEATURES THAT COULD CAUSE THIS TO BE A DECENT EVENT. THE LOW
END WOULD PROBABLY PRODUCE NEAR OR AT HIGH WINDS FOR THE GAPS AND
WEST SIDE OF CLARK WHILE THE HIGH END WOULD RESULT IN A WAVE
BREAKING MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT WITH WINDS WELL OVER 60 MPH WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 80 MPH PLUS. MOIST PLUME APPROACHES ABOUT THE SAME
TIME WITH OUR APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL PROBABLY CLIP
THE NWRN CORNER WITH A LITTLE LIGHT PCPN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE RIDGING PUSHES IT NORTH INTO MT. SHALLOW FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL EXPECTED TO SIT ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY FOR A SLIGHT
TEMPERING OF TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO AREAS JUST TO THE SOUTH.
SATURDAY LOOKS WARM AND DRY WITH INCREASING SW WIND.

ERN PACIFIC TROUGH THEN OPENS UP AND MOVES INLAND ACROSS US SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY WITH MODELS VARYING ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SECONDARY
BACK SIDE SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT/MON MRNG. AIRMASS STILL LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR POTENTIAL LIGHT SNOW IN CENTRAL WYO LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING WHERE PCPN FALLS. DECENT SHOT OF RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A COUPLE TO SEVERAL
INCHES QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. BRIEF RIDGING WITH
TEMPERATURES RECOVERING SOME TUESDAY BEFORE POTENTIAL SEWD MOVING
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH THE PATTERN CHANGE AND MOVEMENT OF SEVERAL KEY UPPER
LOWS OVER ASIA BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES COULD BE
IN THE OFFING JUST BEYOND THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HOW IT ALL
EVOLVES AND THE EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN...MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN HALLOWEEN AND THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF NOVEMBER. NOTHING
CERTAIN YET.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD WILL BE CONSIDERABLE
MOUNTAIN TURBULENCE...AS WELL AS LLWS ESPECIALLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF
THE ABSAROKA AND WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS INCLUDING COD AND LND
TERMINALS AT TIMES. VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT AREA
TERMINALS WITH ONLY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERSPREADING THE AREA
THROUGH 12Z AND THEN REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE COULD BE SOME CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT NW OF A KJAC-KCOD
LINE...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND REMAIN AWAY
FROM THE TERMINALS.

PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON
TURBULENCE FORECASTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE SOUTH BUT IT WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IN SPOTS WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH COMMON BETWEEN ROCK SPRINGS AND
CASPER AND OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ON THURSDAY NIGHT WEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE AREA AROUND CLARK NORTH OF
CODY.SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS ON FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS REMAINING. THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON BETWEEN RAWLINS AND SOUTHERN CASPER DISPATCH BUT MOST
AREAS WILL HAVE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
WYZ003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON











000
FXUS63 KUNR 230422
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1022 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER TROF AXIS PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH WEAK RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. CLOUDY SKIES
HAVE SHIFTED EAST WITH SUNNY SKIES TAKING OVER. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT 2 PM ARE IN THE 50S AND
60S...AND THE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.

UPPER RIDGE RETURNS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S TONIGHT...AND WARMING INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S ON
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHORTWAVE AHEAD
OF THE MAIN TROF AND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH MONDAY. THE MAIN UPPER TROF EXITS THE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...PUSHING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK RIDGING THEN RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS65 KCYS 230243
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
843 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 838 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WITH
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS FROM CENTRAL MT THROUGH EASTERN ID. UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS STREAMING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS WY AND WESTERN
NE. FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY BASED
ON SATELLITE TRENDS. FIRST PERIOD WINDS AND TEMPERATURES ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWING SOME ECHOS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND. MAINLY
VIRGA WITH A FEW SPRINKLES HERE AND THERE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIE
OFF BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOST OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
JET. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE
UPPER DYNAMICS TOMORROW BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO
AFFECT VIEWING THE OF SOLAR ECLIPSE IN THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE
WINDY IN THE WEST AND BREEZY IN THE EAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BUT NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY. IF ANYTHING CLOUD COVER MAY
SOMEWHAT INHIBIT STRONGER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THAT WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA. GFS AND
EC HAVE THE SAME GENERAL IDEA ALTHOUGH THE EC IS SLIGHTLY FASTER
BRINGING IN COOLER AIR. THIS WILL BE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR TO
REACH THE FORECAST AREA IN SEVERAL WEEK BUT STILL ONLY LOOKING
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF
OCTOBER. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL.
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL MAINLY BE FOUND OVER THE MOUNTAINS. 3 TO 6
INCHES MIGHT BE A GOOD BET FOR THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES
AT THIS TIME BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE SNOW OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. EC IS MUCH MORE OPTIMIST WITH ANOTHER
LARGE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES. THE GFS SUGGEST ZONAL FLOW
WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS.
THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER
INTO MID NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WILL WATCH
THE MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS TO GET A BETTER IDEA FOR
NEXT WEEKS WEATHER PATTERN SET UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 520 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE PERIOD...WITH SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BECOME BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER THURSDAY MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN NE...WITH
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 153 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE TODAY AND
THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA...BUT WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED BY LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAMSKI
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...TJT








000
FXUS65 KCYS 222323
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
523 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWING SOME ECHOS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND. MAINLY
VIRGA WITH A FEW SPRINKLES HERE AND THERE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIE
OFF BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOST OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
JET. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE
UPPER DYNAMICS TOMORROW BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO
AFFECT VIEWING THE OF SOLAR ECLIPSE IN THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE
WINDY IN THE WEST AND BREEZY IN THE EAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BUT NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY. IF ANYTHING CLOUD COVER MAY
SOMEWHAT INHIBIT STRONGER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THAT WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA. GFS AND
EC HAVE THE SAME GENERAL IDEA ALTHOUGH THE EC IS SLIGHTLY FASTER
BRINGING IN COOLER AIR. THIS WILL BE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR TO
REACH THE FORECAST AREA IN SEVERAL WEEK BUT STILL ONLY LOOKING
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF
OCTOBER. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL.
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL MAINLY BE FOUND OVER THE MOUNTAINS. 3 TO 6
INCHES MIGHT BE A GOOD BET FOR THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES
AT THIS TIME BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE SNOW OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. EC IS MUCH MORE OPTIMIST WITH ANOTHER
LARGE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES. THE GFS SUGGEST ZONAL FLOW
WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS.
THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER
INTO MID NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WILL WATCH
THE MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS TO GET A BETTER IDEA FOR
NEXT WEEKS WEATHER PATTERN SET UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 520 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE PERIOD...WITH SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BECOME BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER THURSDAY MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN NE...WITH
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 153 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE TODAY AND
THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA...BUT WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED BY LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...TJT






000
FXUS63 KUNR 222315
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
515 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER TROF AXIS PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH WEAK RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. CLOUDY SKIES
HAVE SHIFTED EAST WITH SUNNY SKIES TAKING OVER. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT 2 PM ARE IN THE 50S AND
60S...AND THE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.

UPPER RIDGE RETURNS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S TONIGHT...AND WARMING INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S ON
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST.


&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHORTWAVE AHEAD
OF THE MAIN TROF AND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH MONDAY. THE MAIN UPPER TROF EXITS THE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...PUSHING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK RIDGING THEN RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 513 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS63 KUNR 222315
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
515 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER TROF AXIS PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH WEAK RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. CLOUDY SKIES
HAVE SHIFTED EAST WITH SUNNY SKIES TAKING OVER. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT 2 PM ARE IN THE 50S AND
60S...AND THE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.

UPPER RIDGE RETURNS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S TONIGHT...AND WARMING INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S ON
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST.


&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHORTWAVE AHEAD
OF THE MAIN TROF AND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH MONDAY. THE MAIN UPPER TROF EXITS THE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...PUSHING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK RIDGING THEN RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 513 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS65 KCYS 222153
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
353 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWING SOME ECHOS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND. MAINLY
VIRGA WITH A FEW SPRINKLES HERE AND THERE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIE
OFF BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOST OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
JET. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE
UPPER DYNAMICS TOMORROW BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO
AFFECT VIEWING THE OF SOLAR ECLIPSE IN THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE
WINDY IN THE WEST AND BREEZY IN THE EAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BUT NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY. IF ANYTHING CLOUD COVER MAY
SOMEWHAT INHIBIT STRONGER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THAT WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA. GFS AND
EC HAVE THE SAME GENERAL IDEA ALTHOUGH THE EC IS SLIGHTLY FASTER
BRINGING IN COOLER AIR. THIS WILL BE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR TO
REACH THE FORECAST AREA IN SEVERAL WEEK BUT STILL ONLY LOOKING
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF
OCTOBER. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL.
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL MAINLY BE FOUND OVER THE MOUNTAINS. 3 TO 6
INCHES MIGHT BE A GOOD BET FOR THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES
AT THIS TIME BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE SNOW OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. EC IS MUCH MORE OPTIMIST WITH ANOTHER
LARGE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES. THE GFS SUGGEST ZONAL FLOW
WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS.
THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER
INTO MID NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WILL WATCH
THE MODLES TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS TO GET A BETTER IDEA FOR
NEXT WEEKS WEATHER PATTERN SET UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

NO BIG AVIATION CONCERNS TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...SML







000
FXUS65 KRIW 222058
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
258 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

A DRY STABLE CONFLUENT FLOW HAS ENSUED OVER THE AREA AS TUESDAYS
TROUGH EXITS THE AREA AND A FLATTENING RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. THE TREND THROUGH THU WILL BE FOR INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE FLATTENING RIDGE AND THE CLOSED
LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA CHURNS OUT ANOTHER CLOSED LOW EAST
ACROSS CANADA AND SLINGS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...AND AT THE SAME TIME A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING WEST WINDS WILL RESPOND TO
THIS SET UP... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPE OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN WIND CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION...WEST
WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE AREA NORTH OF CODY
BY LATE THU AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY AROUND CLARK AS A POTENTIAL MTN
WAVE...ALBEIT RELATIVELY WEAK...DEVELOPS. A FROUDE NUMBER OF 1 BY
00Z FRI IN THAT AREA AS WELL AS A PROGGED CRITICAL LAYER ABOVE THE
ABSAROKA MTNS REFLECTS THIS NOTION. IN ADDITION...THE WEST
SOUTHWEST DIFLUENT FLOW WILL RESULT IN ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE FAR NW MTNS LATE THU. SOUTHWEST WEST WINDS HAVE ALREADY KICKED
IN ALONG THE SOUTHERN WIND CORRIDOR FROM THE GREEN MTNS TO KCPR.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THU. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER EVERYWHERE THU AS THE COOL AIR BEHIND
WEDNESDAYS TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

POTENTIAL MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT TO START THIS PERIOD IN THE CODY
FOOTHILLS AS POTENTIALLY FAVORABLE MOUNTAIN TOP CONDITIONS COMBINE
WITH APPROACHING RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF 150KT+ UPPER JET AND MODERATE
GAP FLOW SIGNATURE. NAM12 IS PICKING UP A PERIOD OF UPSTREAM
MOUNTAIN TOP INVERSION AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE WRF
CROSS SECTION IS SHOWING A PERIOD IN THE EVENING THURSDAY OF
POTENTIAL FLOW REVERSAL OR AT LEAST POTENTIAL FOR WAVE INDUCED
CRITICAL LAYER. FROUDE CALCULATIONS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT ARE PRETTY
CONSISTENT IN THE 1 RANGE. WRF BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE ON THE FLATS BUT GET OVER 50KTS NEAR THE STEEP TERRAIN.
POTENTIAL IS GREAT ENOUGH TO AT LEAST GET THE WATCH OUT AS THERE ARE
ENOUGH FEATURES THAT COULD CAUSE THIS TO BE A DECENT EVENT. THE LOW
END WOULD PROBABLY PRODUCE NEAR OR AT HIGH WINDS FOR THE GAPS AND
WEST SIDE OF CLARK WHILE THE HIGH END WOULD RESULT IN A WAVE
BREAKING MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT WITH WINDS WELL OVER 60 MPH WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 80 MPH PLUS. MOIST PLUME APPROACHES ABOUT THE SAME
TIME WITH OUR APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL PROBABLY CLIP
THE NWRN CORNER WITH A LITTLE LIGHT PCPN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE RIDGING PUSHES IT NORTH INTO MT. SHALLOW FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL EXPECTED TO SIT ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY FOR A SLIGHT
TEMPERING OF TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO AREAS JUST TO THE SOUTH.
SATURDAY LOOKS WARM AND DRY WITH INCREASING SW WIND.

ERN PACIFIC TROUGH THEN OPENS UP AND MOVES INLAND ACROSS US SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY WITH MODELS VARYING ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SECONDARY
BACK SIDE SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT/MON MRNG. AIRMASS STILL LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR POTENTIAL LIGHT SNOW IN CENTRAL WYO LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING WHERE PCPN FALLS. DECENT SHOT OF RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A COUPLE TO SEVERAL
INCHES QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. BRIEF RIDGING WITH
TEMPERATURES RECOVERING SOME TUESDAY BEFORE POTENTIAL SEWD MOVING
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH THE PATTERN CHANGE AND MOVEMENT OF SEVERAL KEY UPPER
LOWS OVER ASIA BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES COULD BE
IN THE OFFING JUST BEYOND THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HOW IT ALL
EVOLVES AND THE EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN...MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN HALLOWEEN AND THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF NOVEMBER. NOTHING
CERTAIN YET.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH MAINLY SKC SKIES. EXPECT
INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND STRENGTHENING MOUNTAIN
TOP WINDS WITH POSSIBLY SOME LLWS ON THE LEE SIDE OF MOUNTAIN
RANGES ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. HOWEVER
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OR MAGNITUDE TO INCLUDE AT KCOD OR KLND AT
THIS TIME. WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM KRKS TO KCPR BY
18Z THURSDAY. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM KCOD NORTH TO CLARK BY
00Z FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE SOUTH BUT IT WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IN SPOTS WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH COMMON BETWEEN ROCK SPRINGS AND
CASPER AND OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ON THURSDAY NIGHT WEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE AREA AROUND CLARK NORTH
OF CODY.SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS ON FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS REMAINING. THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON BETWEEN RAWLINS AND SOUTHERN CASPER DISPATCH BUT
MOST AREAS WILL HAVE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
WYZ003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...LIPSON
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON








000
FXUS63 KUNR 221959
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
159 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER TROF AXIS PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH WEAK RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. CLOUDY SKIES
HAVE SHIFTED EAST WITH SUNNY SKIES TAKING OVER. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT 2 PM ARE IN THE 50S AND
60S...AND THE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.

UPPER RIDGE RETURNS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S TONIGHT...AND WARMING INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S ON
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHORTWAVE AHEAD
OF THE MAIN TROF AND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH MONDAY. THE MAIN UPPER TROF EXITS THE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...PUSHING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK RIDGING THEN RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...26







000
FXUS65 KRIW 221830
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1230 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

A COOLER AIRMASS HANGING AROUND TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT
PASSED THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH SOME MODERATION ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. AFTER A RELATIVELY CALM DAY TODAY...THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE ANOTHER WINDY DAY AS A TUG OF WAR ENSUES BETWEEN THE COLD BUT
DYNAMIC TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST AND THE RIDGE POKING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
STRENGTHENING JET TO OUR NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY...WHICH COULD
INTRODUCE STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIGHT EXIT REGION
OF THE JET INTRUDES THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS WILL
KICK UP THE MOUNTAIN WAVE POTENTIAL OVER THE ABSAROKAS...MAINTAINING
CONSISTENCY WITH THE DAY SHIFT FORECAST FOR SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE
WESTERN CODY FOOTHILLS AT 50 MPH FOR LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO BUMPED UP POPS A LITTLE FOR THE NORTHWEST
ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A WAVE MOVES THROUGH. MOST OF THE
ACTION WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
AROUND YELLOWSTONE AND THE TETONS. OTHERWISE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
WYOMING WILL BE DRY AND BREEZY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ON SATURDAY WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
SPREADING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA INTO MONDAY. A WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE MILD CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

DISCUSSION...COMPLEX VORTEX OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS MORNING
WILL WOBBLE SE TO THE WEST COAST SATURDAY MORNING. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE INDIVIDUAL VORTICES WITHIN THIS
COMPLEX DIFFERENTLY...BUT AGREE THAT A VERY WARM SW FLOW WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE AREA SATURDAY BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND STRONG
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. RECORD HIGH TERRITORY FOR THE
25TH IS GENERALLY 72-74F RANGE ACROSS CENTRAL WY FOR THE 25TH...A
BIT WARMER AT WRL AT 79F. FORECAST HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR OR
EXCEEDING THESE RECORDS.

ON THE 22/00Z GFS AND ECMWF RUNS...GFS CONTINUES TO EJECT LEAD
SHORTWAVE OUT OF BASE OF THE TROUGH NE INTO WESTERN MONTANA
SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MORE SPLIT
SYSTEM...SWINGING THIS SHORTWAVE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS VERSION WOULD KEEP MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE WEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH
WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. ECMWF
DEPICTION WOULD RESULT IN MUCH COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY. EC AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS FAVOR SLOWER
PROGRESSION...MORE RESPECT FOR STRONG PLAINS RIDGE.
HOWEVER...EITHER WAY MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO BE
BETWEEN 5-6KFT BY MONDAY MORNING. THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA
STANDS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME ACCUMULATION MONDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ON VEGETATION WITH WET ROADS BELOW 6KFT. COOL AND
UNSETTLED NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH
LATTER IN THE DAY MONDAY WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
EXPECTED OVER THE NE HALF OF THE CWA. ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND THIS TROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING IN MILDER
PACIFIC AIRMASS ALONG WITH SOME OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION IN THE
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY WITH MAINLY SKC SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. AFTER 00Z...EXPECT INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
STRENGTHENING MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS WITH POSSIBLY SOME LLWS ON THE LEE
SIDE OF MOUNTAIN RANGES ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE DEVELOPING
AFTER 06Z. HOWEVER NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OR MAGNITUDE TO INCLUDE AT
KCOD OR KLND AT THIS TIME. WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM
KRKS TO KCPR BY 18Z THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THE WIND AND THE RAIN WILL CLEAR OUT TODAY WITH COOL TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BEHIND THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH YESTERDAY.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE SOUTH BUT IT WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IN SPOTS WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH COMMON BETWEEN ROCK SPRINGS AND
CASPER AND OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS ON
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS REMAINING. THERE COULD BE A
FEW GUSTS OVER 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON BETWEEN RAWLINS AND SOUTHERN
CASPER DISPATCH BUT MOST AREAS WILL HAVE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...WM/LIPSON
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN













000
FXUS63 KUNR 221727
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1127 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER WAVE PUSHING OVER THE ROCKIES. AHEAD OF
THE WAVE THERE ARE CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS...SOME OF WHICH ARE
OVER WESTERN SD. SURFACE TROUGH/COOL FRONT ARE MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ARE KEEPING CENTRAL SD IN
THE 60S...WHILE TEMPS ARE COOLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.

UPPER WAVE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY...PUSHING RAIN SHOWERS INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY REBUILD...AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST SD...ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ACTUALLY
DECREASE DURING THE DAY SO WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH 50S IN THE BLACK
HILLS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S.

WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE RETURNS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY...A WEAK WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING...AND THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE NO MORE THAN SOME BREEZY
WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...AND
TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. IF WESTERLY WINDS DON/T GET TOO CALM
OVERNIGHT...DOWNSLOPING FLOW MAY KEEP THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS A BIT
WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL. UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
SUNDAY ALLOWING NEXT TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. IT WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT AND A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHOWERS ARE EXITING SOUTH CENTRAL SD NOW...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...26







000
FXUS63 KUNR 221727
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1127 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER WAVE PUSHING OVER THE ROCKIES. AHEAD OF
THE WAVE THERE ARE CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS...SOME OF WHICH ARE
OVER WESTERN SD. SURFACE TROUGH/COOL FRONT ARE MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ARE KEEPING CENTRAL SD IN
THE 60S...WHILE TEMPS ARE COOLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.

UPPER WAVE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY...PUSHING RAIN SHOWERS INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY REBUILD...AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST SD...ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ACTUALLY
DECREASE DURING THE DAY SO WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH 50S IN THE BLACK
HILLS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S.

WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE RETURNS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY...A WEAK WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING...AND THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE NO MORE THAN SOME BREEZY
WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...AND
TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. IF WESTERLY WINDS DON/T GET TOO CALM
OVERNIGHT...DOWNSLOPING FLOW MAY KEEP THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS A BIT
WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL. UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
SUNDAY ALLOWING NEXT TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. IT WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT AND A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHOWERS ARE EXITING SOUTH CENTRAL SD NOW...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...26







000
FXUS65 KCYS 221529
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
929 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 852 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

FORECAST IS WELL ON TRACK FOR TODAY. ANOTHER NICE DAY IN STORE
ALBEIT SLIGHTLY COOLER FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LAST
NIGHT. SUNNY SKIES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS A VAST MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. SOME MID CLOUDS WILL BE FOUND CLOSER TOWARD
THE COLORADO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A FEW AFTERNOON
SPRINKLES ALONG THE BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE NO
PRECIPITATION TODAY OR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOR THAT MATTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WEST WITH 60S INTO THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RADAR
SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.
DRIER AIR HAS ALREADY PUSHED INTO CASPER AT THIS HOUR...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE TODAY. THIS DRIER AIR IS ALSO BEHIND THE MAIN COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS RATHER WEAK THIS MORNING BUT GENERALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN CARBON COUNTY EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS CONVERSE AND
NIOBRARA COUNTIES. THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ON
TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WILL STILL BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. KEPT POP
BELOW 15 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE I80
CORRIDOR NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES DUE TO LLVL INSTABILITY AND THE
FRONT STALLING ACROSS THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS. THIS MAY PROVIDE
JUST ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO TRIGGER A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS...BUT
KEPT POP BELOW 15 PERCENT ALONG I80 FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY AS A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO EXTEND NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER
70S ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK...WITH A FEW LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS BELOW 4500 FEET REACHING 80 DEGREES BY FRIDAY. POP WILL
BE NEAR ZERO BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH INTERVALS OF DENSE HIGH
CLOUDS POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A BIG CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED.

STARTING OFF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...CWFA UNDER AN UPPER
RIDGE. RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER THE CWFA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
700MB WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST TO 30-35KTS. SATURDAY
SHOULD BE A BREEZY DAY. DOWNSLOPING OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE SHOULD
GIVE US SOME PRETTY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH MID TO UPPER 70S OUT IN
THE PANHANDLE AND LOW 70S OUT WEST.

STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR SUNDAY. ECMWF
SHOWS THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FURTHER SOUTH...TRACKING ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH. GFS HAS THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN
MONTANA. BASED FORECAST OFF THE ECMWF AND HAVE SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING. SHOULD THE GFS
SOLUTION COME TRUE...WE WILL BE WINDY AND DRY.

MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON 700MB TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK...THE GFS IS FORECASTING 700MB TEMPERATURES OF +4 TO +10C
OVER THE CWFA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF SHOWING -2C TO +4C OVER
THE AREA. SO WE COULD SEE A PRETTY BIG CHANCE FOR A TEMPERATURE
BUST ON FORECAST HIGHS SUNDAY.

COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AS BOTH MODELS SHOW 700MB
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -4 TO -8C OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. SPLIT
FLOW WITH ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING INTO CENTRAL
COLORADO. BOTH MODELS SHOWING THIS FOR MONDAY. SINCE THIS IS QUITE
DIFFERENT FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...DECIDED TO KEEP LOW END
CHANCE POPS IN FOR ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE BEFORE CHANGING THE
WEATHER DRASTICALLY. SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOST PRECIP TO FALL
AS SNOW FOR MOST OF MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS COMING TO AN END OUT OVER THE
PANHANDLE. SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SCATTERING CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 153 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE TODAY AND
THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA...BUT WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND NOT MUCH OF A FACTOR. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
HIGHER HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED BY LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...TJT







000
FXUS65 KCYS 221156
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
556 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RADAR
SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.
DRIER AIR HAS ALREADY PUSHED INTO CASPER AT THIS HOUR...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE TODAY. THIS DRIER AIR IS ALSO BEHIND THE MAIN COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS RATHER WEAK THIS MORNING BUT GENERALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN CARBON COUNTY EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS CONVERSE AND
NIOBRARA COUNTIES. THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ON
TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WILL STILL BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. KEPT POP
BELOW 15 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE I80
CORRIDOR NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES DUE TO LLVL INSTABILITY AND THE
FRONT STALLING ACROSS THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS. THIS MAY PROVIDE
JUST ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO TRIGGER A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS...BUT
KEPT POP BELOW 15 PERCENT ALONG I80 FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY AS A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO EXTEND NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER
70S ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK...WITH A FEW LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS BELOW 4500 FEET REACHING 80 DEGREES BY FRIDAY. POP WILL
BE NEAR ZERO BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH INTERVALS OF DENSE HIGH
CLOUDS POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A BIG CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED.

STARTING OFF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...CWFA UNDER AN UPPER
RIDGE. RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER THE CWFA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
700MB WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST TO 30-35KTS. SATURDAY
SHOULD BE A BREEZY DAY. DOWNSLOPING OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE SHOULD
GIVE US SOME PRETTY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH MID TO UPPER 70S OUT IN
THE PANHANDLE AND LOW 70S OUT WEST.

STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR SUNDAY. ECMWF
SHOWS THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FURTHER SOUTH...TRACKING ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH. GFS HAS THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN
MONTANA. BASED FORECAST OFF THE ECMWF AND HAVE SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING. SHOULD THE GFS
SOLUTION COME TRUE...WE WILL BE WINDY AND DRY.

MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON 700MB TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK...THE GFS IS FORECASTING 700MB TEMPERATURES OF +4 TO +10C
OVER THE CWFA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF SHOWING -2C TO +4C OVER
THE AREA. SO WE COULD SEE A PRETTY BIG CHANCE FOR A TEMPERATURE
BUST ON FORECAST HIGHS SUNDAY.

COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AS BOTH MODELS SHOW 700MB
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -4 TO -8C OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. SPLIT
FLOW WITH ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING INTO CENTRAL
COLORADO. BOTH MODELS SHOWING THIS FOR MONDAY. SINCE THIS IS QUITE
DIFFERENT FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...DECIDED TO KEEP LOW END
CHANCE POPS IN FOR ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE BEFORE CHANGING THE
WEATHER DRASTICALLY. SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOST PRECIP TO FALL
AS SNOW FOR MOST OF MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS COMING TO AN END OUT OVER THE
PANHANDLE. SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SCATTERING CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 153 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE TODAY AND
THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA...BUT WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND NOT MUCH OF A FACTOR. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
HIGHER HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED BY LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...TJT







    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities