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000
FXUS65 KRIW 290449
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1049 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WV SHOWING UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW...THAT BROUGHT
YESTERDAYS ACTIVE WEATHER...CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO MANITOBA TONIGHT. THE
LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THIS SYSTEM HAS CAUSED
BREEZY...ALTHOUGH NOT AS BREEZY WINDS AS YESTERDAY...TO LINGER
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AS THE TIGHT GRADIENT MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS. SOME MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THIS SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN WY. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A VERY
ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS NW WYOMING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT...AND WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...COOL TEMPS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOUND. PORTIONS OF WESTERN WYOMING MAY ONCE
AGAIN SEE LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BELOW FREEZING...WITH NEAR
FREEZING TEMPS POSSIBLY GETTING INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
SEND VERY DRY WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...HOWEVER...DRY AIR WILL REMAIN...WITH AFTERNOON
RH VALUES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND AREAS EAST
OF THE DIVIDE...WITH 20S IN THE WEST. WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER TEMPS WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
WITH DRY AIR OVERHEAD...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

QUIET SHORT TERM AS UPPER RIDGE AROUND THE 4-CORNERS REGION. MAIN
WEATHER WILL CONSIST OF A WARMING TREND WITH A VERY LOW AFTERNOON
RH. OVER THE WEEKEND...A LITTLE BIT OF MAINLY MID/HI LEVEL MOISTURE
AND WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THIS HIGH INTO THE NORTH WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY STARTING TO FORM IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT LOOKS LIKE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE
ROTATES AROUND THE 4-CORNERS HIGH AND COMBINES WITH A POTENTIAL COOL
FRONT THAT DROPS DOWN INTO THE NRN ZONES. SO ISOLATED TSTMS AT LEAST
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DOWNWIND AREAS. A FEW WILL LIKELY TRACK
SE ONTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY EVENING. A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE
YET ON TUESDAY WILL PRODUCE A FEW MORE STORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA WITH THE SERN ZONES SEEING VERY LITTLE OR JUST A STRAY STORM OR
TWO. GUSTY WIND AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS WITH STILL LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BECOMING QUITE WARM TO
HOT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COOLING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE NORTH HALF.


&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH MAINLY DIURNAL
VARIATIONS AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS SUCH AS KJAC...KPNA AND KBPI.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

BREEZY WINDS...CURRENTLY FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WYOMING...WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH RH VALUES CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID
TEENS...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL WINDS COMPLETELY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ANOTHER COOL...DRY...AND MAINLY CLEAR
NIGHT IS THEN EXPECTED. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN BEGIN
WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT WINDS WILL BE
FOUND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MIN RH IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS
EACH DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...AND IN
THE 20S ACROSS THE WEST. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ANGLIN
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...ANGLIN




000
FXUS65 KRIW 290449
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1049 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WV SHOWING UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW...THAT BROUGHT
YESTERDAYS ACTIVE WEATHER...CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO MANITOBA TONIGHT. THE
LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THIS SYSTEM HAS CAUSED
BREEZY...ALTHOUGH NOT AS BREEZY WINDS AS YESTERDAY...TO LINGER
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AS THE TIGHT GRADIENT MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS. SOME MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THIS SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN WY. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A VERY
ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS NW WYOMING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT...AND WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...COOL TEMPS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOUND. PORTIONS OF WESTERN WYOMING MAY ONCE
AGAIN SEE LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BELOW FREEZING...WITH NEAR
FREEZING TEMPS POSSIBLY GETTING INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
SEND VERY DRY WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...HOWEVER...DRY AIR WILL REMAIN...WITH AFTERNOON
RH VALUES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND AREAS EAST
OF THE DIVIDE...WITH 20S IN THE WEST. WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER TEMPS WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
WITH DRY AIR OVERHEAD...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

QUIET SHORT TERM AS UPPER RIDGE AROUND THE 4-CORNERS REGION. MAIN
WEATHER WILL CONSIST OF A WARMING TREND WITH A VERY LOW AFTERNOON
RH. OVER THE WEEKEND...A LITTLE BIT OF MAINLY MID/HI LEVEL MOISTURE
AND WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THIS HIGH INTO THE NORTH WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY STARTING TO FORM IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT LOOKS LIKE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE
ROTATES AROUND THE 4-CORNERS HIGH AND COMBINES WITH A POTENTIAL COOL
FRONT THAT DROPS DOWN INTO THE NRN ZONES. SO ISOLATED TSTMS AT LEAST
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DOWNWIND AREAS. A FEW WILL LIKELY TRACK
SE ONTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY EVENING. A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE
YET ON TUESDAY WILL PRODUCE A FEW MORE STORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA WITH THE SERN ZONES SEEING VERY LITTLE OR JUST A STRAY STORM OR
TWO. GUSTY WIND AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS WITH STILL LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BECOMING QUITE WARM TO
HOT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COOLING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE NORTH HALF.


&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH MAINLY DIURNAL
VARIATIONS AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS SUCH AS KJAC...KPNA AND KBPI.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

BREEZY WINDS...CURRENTLY FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WYOMING...WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH RH VALUES CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID
TEENS...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL WINDS COMPLETELY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ANOTHER COOL...DRY...AND MAINLY CLEAR
NIGHT IS THEN EXPECTED. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN BEGIN
WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT WINDS WILL BE
FOUND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MIN RH IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS
EACH DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...AND IN
THE 20S ACROSS THE WEST. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ANGLIN
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...ANGLIN


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000
FXUS65 KCYS 282335
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
535 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EVEN WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
HAVE FALLEN TO 12-15 PERCENT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING.  WITH THE DEEP MIXING...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25-
35 MPH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.  THE RED FLAG
WARNINGS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING LOOK ON TRACK.  WINDS WILL
DECREASE AFTER 00Z AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND MIXING
DECREASES. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH
PW VALUES REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE (0.25-0.50 INCHES). ALTHOUGH
MIN RH WILL DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS CARBON COUNTY...THE WINDS
WILL BE MUCH WEAKER CWA WIDE...SO NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
EXPECTED. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS IN AREAS NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER BY WED AFTN/EVENING...HOWEVER CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS OF COLORADO.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS FORECASTED FOR THURS ALTHOUGH
TEMPS WILL HAVE WARMED BACK UP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS ON FRIDAY WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE DEEPEST
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SHUNTED WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...HOWEVER SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT IN BY A
SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. COMBINED
WITH MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC...COULD SEE AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE AND MOVE
EASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONGER WAVE IN SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SNEAK SOUTH ACROSS
THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND MAY PUSH CONVECTIVE INITIATION EAST AND
OUT OF OUR COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
STORM IN THE PANHANDLE. SUNDAY LOOKS QUITE SIMILAR WITH PERHAPS A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH IN THE LATE MORNING
AS WINDS ALOFT VEER MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 80S AND 90S FOR THE PLAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS AND WILL COOL OFF A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY IN THE POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR
MONDAY AS WELL AS SFC WINDS VEER TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. SO COULD
SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF THE CAP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 527 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SCATTERED CU BASED NEAR 10000 FT AGL IN VICINITY OF CHEYENNE WILL
DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR
SKIES WILL PREVAIL DURING THE TAF PERIOD. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT AFTER SUNSET. FOR WEDNESDAY...SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY BY MIDDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE FALLEN TO 12-15 PERCENT OVER AREAS TO
THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO GUST TO 25 TO 35 MPH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH 7 PM. IT
WILL BE ANOTHER DRY DAY TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER AND THUS THERE
ARE MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301-310.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...MAJ
FIRE WEATHER...ZF




000
FXUS65 KCYS 282335
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
535 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EVEN WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
HAVE FALLEN TO 12-15 PERCENT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING.  WITH THE DEEP MIXING...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25-
35 MPH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.  THE RED FLAG
WARNINGS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING LOOK ON TRACK.  WINDS WILL
DECREASE AFTER 00Z AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND MIXING
DECREASES. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH
PW VALUES REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE (0.25-0.50 INCHES). ALTHOUGH
MIN RH WILL DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS CARBON COUNTY...THE WINDS
WILL BE MUCH WEAKER CWA WIDE...SO NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
EXPECTED. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS IN AREAS NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER BY WED AFTN/EVENING...HOWEVER CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS OF COLORADO.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS FORECASTED FOR THURS ALTHOUGH
TEMPS WILL HAVE WARMED BACK UP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS ON FRIDAY WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE DEEPEST
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SHUNTED WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...HOWEVER SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT IN BY A
SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. COMBINED
WITH MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC...COULD SEE AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE AND MOVE
EASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONGER WAVE IN SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SNEAK SOUTH ACROSS
THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND MAY PUSH CONVECTIVE INITIATION EAST AND
OUT OF OUR COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
STORM IN THE PANHANDLE. SUNDAY LOOKS QUITE SIMILAR WITH PERHAPS A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH IN THE LATE MORNING
AS WINDS ALOFT VEER MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 80S AND 90S FOR THE PLAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS AND WILL COOL OFF A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY IN THE POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR
MONDAY AS WELL AS SFC WINDS VEER TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. SO COULD
SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF THE CAP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 527 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SCATTERED CU BASED NEAR 10000 FT AGL IN VICINITY OF CHEYENNE WILL
DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR
SKIES WILL PREVAIL DURING THE TAF PERIOD. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT AFTER SUNSET. FOR WEDNESDAY...SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY BY MIDDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE FALLEN TO 12-15 PERCENT OVER AREAS TO
THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO GUST TO 25 TO 35 MPH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH 7 PM. IT
WILL BE ANOTHER DRY DAY TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER AND THUS THERE
ARE MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301-310.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...MAJ
FIRE WEATHER...ZF


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000
FXUS63 KUNR 282335
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
535 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

STACKED LOW OVER FAR SRN ALTA IS BRINGING GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THIS AFTN. ANOMALOUSLY COOL
TEMPS FOUND ACROSS THE CWFA WITH MID AFTN READINGS IN THE MID 60S
TO UPPER 70S...EVEN SOME 50S IN THE BLKHLS.

DRY NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WED WITH LOW DRIFTING NEWD
TOWARDS THE HUDSON BAY. CHILLY TEMPS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A FEW
AREAS IN THE BLKHLS DIPPING INTO THE 30S. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED ON WED WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE 80S ON THE
PLAINS...70S IN THE HILLS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WARMER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THE WEATHER PATTERN COULD BECOME AT
LEAST A BIT MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS BRING INCREASING MOISTURE...AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PASS THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 533 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ025-032-072-073.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-
     012>014.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS65 KCYS 282215
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
415 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EVEN WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
HAVE FALLEN TO 12-15 PERCENT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING.  WITH THE DEEP MIXING...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25-
35 MPH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.  THE RED FLAG
WARNINGS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING LOOK ON TRACK.  WINDS WILL
DECREASE AFTER 00Z AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND MIXING
DECREASES. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH
PW VALUES REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE (0.25-0.50 INCHES). ALTHOUGH
MIN RH WILL DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS CARBON COUNTY...THE WINDS
WILL BE MUCH WEAKER CWA WIDE...SO NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
EXPECTED. SOME LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS IN AREAS NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER BY WED AFTN/EVENING...HOWEVER CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS OF COLORADO. LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS FCSTED FOR THURS ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL HAVE
WARMED BACK UP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS ON FRIDAY WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE DEEPEST
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SHUNTED WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...HOWEVER SOME MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT IN BY A
SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. COMBINED
WITH MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC...COULD SEE AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE AND MOVE
EASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONGER WAVE IN SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SNEAK SOUTH ACROSS
THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND MAY PUSH CONVECTIVE INITIATION EAST AND
OUT OF OUR COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
STORM IN THE PANHANDLE. SUNDAY LOOKS QUITE SIMILAR WITH PERHAPS A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH IN THE LATE MORNING
AS WINDS ALOFT VEER MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 80S AND 90S FOR THE PLAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS AND WILL COOL OFF A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY IN THE POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS. LLVL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR MONDAY
AS WELL AS SFC WINDS VEER TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. SO COULD SEE A
FEW MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF THE CAP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE EARLY EVENING. TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
AND WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW...EXPECTING
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS FOR THESE AREAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE FALLEN TO 12-15 PERCENT OVER AREAS TO
THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25 TO 35 MPH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.  A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH 7
PM.  IT WILL BE ANOTHER DRY DAY TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER AND THUS THERE ARE
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301-310.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...ZF



000
FXUS65 KCYS 282215
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
415 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EVEN WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
HAVE FALLEN TO 12-15 PERCENT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING.  WITH THE DEEP MIXING...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25-
35 MPH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.  THE RED FLAG
WARNINGS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING LOOK ON TRACK.  WINDS WILL
DECREASE AFTER 00Z AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND MIXING
DECREASES. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH
PW VALUES REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE (0.25-0.50 INCHES). ALTHOUGH
MIN RH WILL DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS CARBON COUNTY...THE WINDS
WILL BE MUCH WEAKER CWA WIDE...SO NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
EXPECTED. SOME LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS IN AREAS NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER BY WED AFTN/EVENING...HOWEVER CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS OF COLORADO. LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS FCSTED FOR THURS ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL HAVE
WARMED BACK UP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS ON FRIDAY WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE DEEPEST
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SHUNTED WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...HOWEVER SOME MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT IN BY A
SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. COMBINED
WITH MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC...COULD SEE AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE AND MOVE
EASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONGER WAVE IN SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SNEAK SOUTH ACROSS
THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND MAY PUSH CONVECTIVE INITIATION EAST AND
OUT OF OUR COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
STORM IN THE PANHANDLE. SUNDAY LOOKS QUITE SIMILAR WITH PERHAPS A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH IN THE LATE MORNING
AS WINDS ALOFT VEER MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 80S AND 90S FOR THE PLAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS AND WILL COOL OFF A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY IN THE POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS. LLVL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR MONDAY
AS WELL AS SFC WINDS VEER TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. SO COULD SEE A
FEW MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF THE CAP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE EARLY EVENING. TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
AND WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW...EXPECTING
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS FOR THESE AREAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE FALLEN TO 12-15 PERCENT OVER AREAS TO
THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25 TO 35 MPH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.  A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH 7
PM.  IT WILL BE ANOTHER DRY DAY TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER AND THUS THERE ARE
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301-310.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...ZF




000
FXUS65 KRIW 282127
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
327 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WV SHOWING UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW...THAT BROUGHT
YESTERDAYS ACTIVE WEATHER...CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO MANITOBA TONIGHT. THE
LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THIS SYSTEM HAS CAUSED
BREEZY...ALTHOUGH NOT AS BREEZY WINDS AS YESTERDAY...TO LINGER
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AS THE TIGHT GRADIENT MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS. SOME MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THIS SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN WY. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A VERY
ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS NW WYOMING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT...AND WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...COOL TEMPS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOUND. PORTIONS OF WESTERN WYOMING MAY ONCE
AGAIN SEE LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BELOW FREEZING...WITH NEAR
FREEZING TEMPS POSSIBLY GETTING INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
SEND VERY DRY WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...HOWEVER...DRY AIR WILL REMAIN...WITH AFTERNOON
RH VALUES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND AREAS EAST
OF THE DIVIDE...WITH 20S IN THE WEST. WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER TEMPS WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
WITH DRY AIR OVERHEAD...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

QUIET SHORT TERM AS UPPER RIDGE AROUND THE 4-CORNERS REGION. MAIN
WEATHER WILL CONSIST OF A WARMING TREND WITH A VERY LOW AFTERNOON
RH. OVER THE WEEKEND...A LITTLE BIT OF MAINLY MID/HI LEVEL MOISTURE
AND WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THIS HIGH INTO THE NORTH WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY STARTING TO FORM IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT LOOKS LIKE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE
ROTATES AROUND THE 4-CORNERS HIGH AND COMBINES WITH A POTENTIAL COOL
FRONT THAT DROPS DOWN INTO THE NRN ZONES. SO ISOLATED TSTMS AT LEAST
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DOWNWIND AREAS. A FEW WILL LIKELY TRACK
SE ONTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY EVENING. A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE
YET ON TUESDAY WILL PRODUCE A FEW MORE STORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA WITH THE SERN ZONES SEEING VERY LITTLE OR JUST A STRAY STORM OR
TWO. GUSTY WIND AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS WITH STILL LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BECOMING QUITE WARM TO
HOT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COOLING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE NORTH HALF.


&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

BREEZY WEST FLOW WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME LINGERING WIND GUSTS IN THE KCPR AREA OF
AROUND 2O KNOTS THROUGH 03Z WEDNESDAY. SCT CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN
WYOMING COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THEN
DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING...OR BY 06Z WEDNESDAY.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NW WYOMING EARLY THIS
EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF KCOD...AND THROUGH 03Z WEDNESDAY. SKIES
WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS...WITH
ONLY A FEW MID LEVEL CU WILL THEN BE IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

BREEZY WINDS...CURRENTLY FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WYOMING...WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH RH VALUES CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID
TEENS...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL WINDS COMPLETELY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ANOTHER COOL...DRY...AND MAINLY CLEAR
NIGHT IS THEN EXPECTED. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN BEGIN
WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT WINDS WILL BE
FOUND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MIN RH IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS
EACH DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...AND IN
THE 20S ACROSS THE WEST. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ANGLIN
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...ANGLIN
FIRE WEATHER...ANGLIN




000
FXUS65 KRIW 282127
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
327 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WV SHOWING UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW...THAT BROUGHT
YESTERDAYS ACTIVE WEATHER...CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO MANITOBA TONIGHT. THE
LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THIS SYSTEM HAS CAUSED
BREEZY...ALTHOUGH NOT AS BREEZY WINDS AS YESTERDAY...TO LINGER
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AS THE TIGHT GRADIENT MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS. SOME MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THIS SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN WY. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A VERY
ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS NW WYOMING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT...AND WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...COOL TEMPS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOUND. PORTIONS OF WESTERN WYOMING MAY ONCE
AGAIN SEE LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BELOW FREEZING...WITH NEAR
FREEZING TEMPS POSSIBLY GETTING INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
SEND VERY DRY WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...HOWEVER...DRY AIR WILL REMAIN...WITH AFTERNOON
RH VALUES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND AREAS EAST
OF THE DIVIDE...WITH 20S IN THE WEST. WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER TEMPS WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
WITH DRY AIR OVERHEAD...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

QUIET SHORT TERM AS UPPER RIDGE AROUND THE 4-CORNERS REGION. MAIN
WEATHER WILL CONSIST OF A WARMING TREND WITH A VERY LOW AFTERNOON
RH. OVER THE WEEKEND...A LITTLE BIT OF MAINLY MID/HI LEVEL MOISTURE
AND WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THIS HIGH INTO THE NORTH WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY STARTING TO FORM IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT LOOKS LIKE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE
ROTATES AROUND THE 4-CORNERS HIGH AND COMBINES WITH A POTENTIAL COOL
FRONT THAT DROPS DOWN INTO THE NRN ZONES. SO ISOLATED TSTMS AT LEAST
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DOWNWIND AREAS. A FEW WILL LIKELY TRACK
SE ONTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY EVENING. A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE
YET ON TUESDAY WILL PRODUCE A FEW MORE STORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA WITH THE SERN ZONES SEEING VERY LITTLE OR JUST A STRAY STORM OR
TWO. GUSTY WIND AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS WITH STILL LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BECOMING QUITE WARM TO
HOT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COOLING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE NORTH HALF.


&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

BREEZY WEST FLOW WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME LINGERING WIND GUSTS IN THE KCPR AREA OF
AROUND 2O KNOTS THROUGH 03Z WEDNESDAY. SCT CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN
WYOMING COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THEN
DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING...OR BY 06Z WEDNESDAY.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NW WYOMING EARLY THIS
EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF KCOD...AND THROUGH 03Z WEDNESDAY. SKIES
WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS...WITH
ONLY A FEW MID LEVEL CU WILL THEN BE IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

BREEZY WINDS...CURRENTLY FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WYOMING...WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH RH VALUES CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID
TEENS...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL WINDS COMPLETELY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ANOTHER COOL...DRY...AND MAINLY CLEAR
NIGHT IS THEN EXPECTED. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN BEGIN
WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT WINDS WILL BE
FOUND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MIN RH IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS
EACH DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...AND IN
THE 20S ACROSS THE WEST. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ANGLIN
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...ANGLIN
FIRE WEATHER...ANGLIN




000
FXUS65 KRIW 282127
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
327 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WV SHOWING UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW...THAT BROUGHT
YESTERDAYS ACTIVE WEATHER...CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO MANITOBA TONIGHT. THE
LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THIS SYSTEM HAS CAUSED
BREEZY...ALTHOUGH NOT AS BREEZY WINDS AS YESTERDAY...TO LINGER
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AS THE TIGHT GRADIENT MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS. SOME MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THIS SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN WY. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A VERY
ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS NW WYOMING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT...AND WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...COOL TEMPS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOUND. PORTIONS OF WESTERN WYOMING MAY ONCE
AGAIN SEE LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BELOW FREEZING...WITH NEAR
FREEZING TEMPS POSSIBLY GETTING INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
SEND VERY DRY WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...HOWEVER...DRY AIR WILL REMAIN...WITH AFTERNOON
RH VALUES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND AREAS EAST
OF THE DIVIDE...WITH 20S IN THE WEST. WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER TEMPS WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
WITH DRY AIR OVERHEAD...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

QUIET SHORT TERM AS UPPER RIDGE AROUND THE 4-CORNERS REGION. MAIN
WEATHER WILL CONSIST OF A WARMING TREND WITH A VERY LOW AFTERNOON
RH. OVER THE WEEKEND...A LITTLE BIT OF MAINLY MID/HI LEVEL MOISTURE
AND WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THIS HIGH INTO THE NORTH WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY STARTING TO FORM IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT LOOKS LIKE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE
ROTATES AROUND THE 4-CORNERS HIGH AND COMBINES WITH A POTENTIAL COOL
FRONT THAT DROPS DOWN INTO THE NRN ZONES. SO ISOLATED TSTMS AT LEAST
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DOWNWIND AREAS. A FEW WILL LIKELY TRACK
SE ONTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY EVENING. A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE
YET ON TUESDAY WILL PRODUCE A FEW MORE STORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA WITH THE SERN ZONES SEEING VERY LITTLE OR JUST A STRAY STORM OR
TWO. GUSTY WIND AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS WITH STILL LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BECOMING QUITE WARM TO
HOT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COOLING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE NORTH HALF.


&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

BREEZY WEST FLOW WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME LINGERING WIND GUSTS IN THE KCPR AREA OF
AROUND 2O KNOTS THROUGH 03Z WEDNESDAY. SCT CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN
WYOMING COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THEN
DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING...OR BY 06Z WEDNESDAY.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NW WYOMING EARLY THIS
EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF KCOD...AND THROUGH 03Z WEDNESDAY. SKIES
WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS...WITH
ONLY A FEW MID LEVEL CU WILL THEN BE IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

BREEZY WINDS...CURRENTLY FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WYOMING...WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH RH VALUES CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID
TEENS...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL WINDS COMPLETELY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ANOTHER COOL...DRY...AND MAINLY CLEAR
NIGHT IS THEN EXPECTED. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN BEGIN
WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT WINDS WILL BE
FOUND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MIN RH IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS
EACH DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...AND IN
THE 20S ACROSS THE WEST. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ANGLIN
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...ANGLIN
FIRE WEATHER...ANGLIN




000
FXUS65 KRIW 282127
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
327 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WV SHOWING UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW...THAT BROUGHT
YESTERDAYS ACTIVE WEATHER...CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO MANITOBA TONIGHT. THE
LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THIS SYSTEM HAS CAUSED
BREEZY...ALTHOUGH NOT AS BREEZY WINDS AS YESTERDAY...TO LINGER
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AS THE TIGHT GRADIENT MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS. SOME MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THIS SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN WY. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A VERY
ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS NW WYOMING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT...AND WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...COOL TEMPS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOUND. PORTIONS OF WESTERN WYOMING MAY ONCE
AGAIN SEE LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BELOW FREEZING...WITH NEAR
FREEZING TEMPS POSSIBLY GETTING INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
SEND VERY DRY WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...HOWEVER...DRY AIR WILL REMAIN...WITH AFTERNOON
RH VALUES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND AREAS EAST
OF THE DIVIDE...WITH 20S IN THE WEST. WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER TEMPS WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
WITH DRY AIR OVERHEAD...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

QUIET SHORT TERM AS UPPER RIDGE AROUND THE 4-CORNERS REGION. MAIN
WEATHER WILL CONSIST OF A WARMING TREND WITH A VERY LOW AFTERNOON
RH. OVER THE WEEKEND...A LITTLE BIT OF MAINLY MID/HI LEVEL MOISTURE
AND WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THIS HIGH INTO THE NORTH WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY STARTING TO FORM IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT LOOKS LIKE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE
ROTATES AROUND THE 4-CORNERS HIGH AND COMBINES WITH A POTENTIAL COOL
FRONT THAT DROPS DOWN INTO THE NRN ZONES. SO ISOLATED TSTMS AT LEAST
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DOWNWIND AREAS. A FEW WILL LIKELY TRACK
SE ONTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY EVENING. A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE
YET ON TUESDAY WILL PRODUCE A FEW MORE STORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA WITH THE SERN ZONES SEEING VERY LITTLE OR JUST A STRAY STORM OR
TWO. GUSTY WIND AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS WITH STILL LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BECOMING QUITE WARM TO
HOT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COOLING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE NORTH HALF.


&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

BREEZY WEST FLOW WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME LINGERING WIND GUSTS IN THE KCPR AREA OF
AROUND 2O KNOTS THROUGH 03Z WEDNESDAY. SCT CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN
WYOMING COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THEN
DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING...OR BY 06Z WEDNESDAY.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NW WYOMING EARLY THIS
EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF KCOD...AND THROUGH 03Z WEDNESDAY. SKIES
WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS...WITH
ONLY A FEW MID LEVEL CU WILL THEN BE IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

BREEZY WINDS...CURRENTLY FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WYOMING...WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH RH VALUES CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID
TEENS...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL WINDS COMPLETELY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ANOTHER COOL...DRY...AND MAINLY CLEAR
NIGHT IS THEN EXPECTED. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN BEGIN
WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT WINDS WILL BE
FOUND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MIN RH IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS
EACH DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...AND IN
THE 20S ACROSS THE WEST. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ANGLIN
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...ANGLIN
FIRE WEATHER...ANGLIN




000
FXUS63 KUNR 282025
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
225 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

STACKED LOW OVER FAR SRN ALTA IS BRINGING GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THIS AFTN. ANOMALOUSLY COOL
TEMPS FOUND ACROSS THE CWFA WITH MID AFTN READINGS IN THE MID 60S
TO UPPER 70S...EVEN SOME 50S IN THE BLKHLS.

DRY NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WED WITH LOW DRIFTING NEWD
TOWARDS THE HUDSON BAY. CHILLY TEMPS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A FEW
AREAS IN THE BLKHLS DIPPING INTO THE 30S. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED ON WED WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE 80S ON THE
PLAINS...70S IN THE HILLS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WARMER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THE WEATHER PATTERN COULD BECOME AT
LEAST A BIT MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS BRING INCREASING MOISTURE...AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PASS THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY
AND NORTHERN SD THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS
FAR NORTHWESTERN SD...WHERE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 50 KT CAN BE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ025-032-072-073.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-
     012>014.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KUNR 282025
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
225 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

STACKED LOW OVER FAR SRN ALTA IS BRINGING GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THIS AFTN. ANOMALOUSLY COOL
TEMPS FOUND ACROSS THE CWFA WITH MID AFTN READINGS IN THE MID 60S
TO UPPER 70S...EVEN SOME 50S IN THE BLKHLS.

DRY NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WED WITH LOW DRIFTING NEWD
TOWARDS THE HUDSON BAY. CHILLY TEMPS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A FEW
AREAS IN THE BLKHLS DIPPING INTO THE 30S. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED ON WED WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE 80S ON THE
PLAINS...70S IN THE HILLS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WARMER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THE WEATHER PATTERN COULD BECOME AT
LEAST A BIT MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS BRING INCREASING MOISTURE...AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PASS THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY
AND NORTHERN SD THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS
FAR NORTHWESTERN SD...WHERE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 50 KT CAN BE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ025-032-072-073.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-
     012>014.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS65 KCYS 281811
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1211 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EAST ACROSS
THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE EARLY THIS AM. POST-FROPA WINDS HAVE
BEEN RATHER GUSTY WITH EXCELLENT LLVL COLD ADVECTION AND FAVORABLE
SFC PRESSURE RISES (8MB/6HR) SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN
WYOMING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50
MPH WERE COMMON BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z...BUT WINDS ARE STARTING TO
RELAX A BIT AS MSLP GRADIENTS WEAKEN FROM W-E. THE DEEPEST COLD
AIR STILL LAGS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE FRONT. IN
FACT...THE 07Z LAKE YELLOWSTONE OBSERVATION SHOWED A TEMPERATURE
OF 34 DEGREES. HIGHER ELEVATIONS AT JACKSON HOLE EVEN RECEIVED
ACCUMULATING SNOW WHICH IS NO SURPRISE GIVEN H7 TEMPS WELL BELOW 0
DEG C. FORTUNATELY (OR UN- FORTUNATELY IF YOU ARE HOPING FOR
WINTER)...DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR CWA AS THE
COLDEST AIR SHOULD SLIDE EASTWARD ALONG THE WY-MT BORDER BEHIND
THE CLOSED LOW AND ATTENDANT NEG TILT MID LVL SHORTWAVE.
HOWEVER...COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH MID AFTN. H7 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEG C COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER CONFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL EFFECT. STILL EXPECT TO SEE
HIGHS AROUND 10-15 DEGREES F COOLER THAN MONDAY.

VERY FEW FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD ASIDE FROM CHALLENGES
IN THE FIRE WEATHER REALM FOR TODAY. WE ARE SEEING EXTREMELY POOR RH
RECOVERIES TONIGHT IN FWZ 310 WHERE WINDS HAVE STAYED UP LONGER AND
PROMOTED LLVL MIXING. KCYS HAD AN RH OF 30 PCT AT 08Z...SO THINK WE
WILL BE GETTING CLOSE TO THAT CRITERIA BY EARLY AFTN AS A MUCH DRIER
AIR MASS BECOMES ESTABLISHED POST-FROPA. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM ALL MODELS SHOW WINDS ALOFT GRADUALLY WEAKENING...BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM AGREE WITH DEEP MIXING TO AROUND 10K FEET...SO WE WILL MOST
LIKELY SEE AT LEAST OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH OR SO. THIS WILL
BE TRICKY THOUGH AS A MODEST MSLP GRADIENT SUGGESTS A VERY MARGINAL
EVENT WITH WEAKER SUSTAINED WINDS. DECIDED AGAINST RED FLAG WARNING
ISSUANCE FOR NOW...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. NO OTHER ISSUES
TO SPEAK OF. DO NOT EXPECT ANY CHANCES FOR PCPN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS WITH H7-H3 RH VALUES LESS THAN 20 PERCENT AND LARGE SCALE
SINKING MOTION. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS ON THU AFTN ALONG THE SFC TROUGH...BUT ALL SIGNS STILL POINT
TO IT BEING EXTREMELY DRY ALOFT. WILL MAINTAIN SCHC POPS THOUGH AS
THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW CAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG ALONG WITH SOME
LIGHT QPF.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...RELATIVELY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES. WITH MEAGER LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY...WHICH MESHES UP WELL WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

SATURDAY...MOSTLY DRY WEATHER LOOKS LIKE THE BEST BET AS FLOW ALOFT
STAYS NORTHWEST WITH MINIMAL LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...LIKELY ACTING AS A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.

SUNDAY...GREAT BASIN RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE. AGAIN...WITH
MINIMAL LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR
QUITE MEAGER.

MONDAY...GFS PROGS SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WHICH MAY HELP TO SPARK ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE EARLY EVENING. TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
AND WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW...EXPECTING
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS FOR THESE AREAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT AND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS MAY DECREASE ENOUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AT TIME OF LOWEST
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MARGINAL...BUT
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS DURING THE LATE MORNING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 310 WHERE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT
HAVE BEEN POOR. HUMIDITIES WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH MUCH LESS WIND ACROSS THE DISTRICT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...RJM



000
FXUS65 KCYS 281811
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1211 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EAST ACROSS
THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE EARLY THIS AM. POST-FROPA WINDS HAVE
BEEN RATHER GUSTY WITH EXCELLENT LLVL COLD ADVECTION AND FAVORABLE
SFC PRESSURE RISES (8MB/6HR) SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN
WYOMING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50
MPH WERE COMMON BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z...BUT WINDS ARE STARTING TO
RELAX A BIT AS MSLP GRADIENTS WEAKEN FROM W-E. THE DEEPEST COLD
AIR STILL LAGS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE FRONT. IN
FACT...THE 07Z LAKE YELLOWSTONE OBSERVATION SHOWED A TEMPERATURE
OF 34 DEGREES. HIGHER ELEVATIONS AT JACKSON HOLE EVEN RECEIVED
ACCUMULATING SNOW WHICH IS NO SURPRISE GIVEN H7 TEMPS WELL BELOW 0
DEG C. FORTUNATELY (OR UN- FORTUNATELY IF YOU ARE HOPING FOR
WINTER)...DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR CWA AS THE
COLDEST AIR SHOULD SLIDE EASTWARD ALONG THE WY-MT BORDER BEHIND
THE CLOSED LOW AND ATTENDANT NEG TILT MID LVL SHORTWAVE.
HOWEVER...COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH MID AFTN. H7 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEG C COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER CONFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL EFFECT. STILL EXPECT TO SEE
HIGHS AROUND 10-15 DEGREES F COOLER THAN MONDAY.

VERY FEW FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD ASIDE FROM CHALLENGES
IN THE FIRE WEATHER REALM FOR TODAY. WE ARE SEEING EXTREMELY POOR RH
RECOVERIES TONIGHT IN FWZ 310 WHERE WINDS HAVE STAYED UP LONGER AND
PROMOTED LLVL MIXING. KCYS HAD AN RH OF 30 PCT AT 08Z...SO THINK WE
WILL BE GETTING CLOSE TO THAT CRITERIA BY EARLY AFTN AS A MUCH DRIER
AIR MASS BECOMES ESTABLISHED POST-FROPA. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM ALL MODELS SHOW WINDS ALOFT GRADUALLY WEAKENING...BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM AGREE WITH DEEP MIXING TO AROUND 10K FEET...SO WE WILL MOST
LIKELY SEE AT LEAST OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH OR SO. THIS WILL
BE TRICKY THOUGH AS A MODEST MSLP GRADIENT SUGGESTS A VERY MARGINAL
EVENT WITH WEAKER SUSTAINED WINDS. DECIDED AGAINST RED FLAG WARNING
ISSUANCE FOR NOW...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. NO OTHER ISSUES
TO SPEAK OF. DO NOT EXPECT ANY CHANCES FOR PCPN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS WITH H7-H3 RH VALUES LESS THAN 20 PERCENT AND LARGE SCALE
SINKING MOTION. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS ON THU AFTN ALONG THE SFC TROUGH...BUT ALL SIGNS STILL POINT
TO IT BEING EXTREMELY DRY ALOFT. WILL MAINTAIN SCHC POPS THOUGH AS
THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW CAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG ALONG WITH SOME
LIGHT QPF.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...RELATIVELY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES. WITH MEAGER LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY...WHICH MESHES UP WELL WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

SATURDAY...MOSTLY DRY WEATHER LOOKS LIKE THE BEST BET AS FLOW ALOFT
STAYS NORTHWEST WITH MINIMAL LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...LIKELY ACTING AS A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.

SUNDAY...GREAT BASIN RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE. AGAIN...WITH
MINIMAL LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR
QUITE MEAGER.

MONDAY...GFS PROGS SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WHICH MAY HELP TO SPARK ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE EARLY EVENING. TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
AND WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW...EXPECTING
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS FOR THESE AREAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT AND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS MAY DECREASE ENOUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AT TIME OF LOWEST
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MARGINAL...BUT
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS DURING THE LATE MORNING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 310 WHERE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT
HAVE BEEN POOR. HUMIDITIES WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH MUCH LESS WIND ACROSS THE DISTRICT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...RJM



000
FXUS65 KCYS 281811
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1211 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EAST ACROSS
THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE EARLY THIS AM. POST-FROPA WINDS HAVE
BEEN RATHER GUSTY WITH EXCELLENT LLVL COLD ADVECTION AND FAVORABLE
SFC PRESSURE RISES (8MB/6HR) SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN
WYOMING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50
MPH WERE COMMON BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z...BUT WINDS ARE STARTING TO
RELAX A BIT AS MSLP GRADIENTS WEAKEN FROM W-E. THE DEEPEST COLD
AIR STILL LAGS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE FRONT. IN
FACT...THE 07Z LAKE YELLOWSTONE OBSERVATION SHOWED A TEMPERATURE
OF 34 DEGREES. HIGHER ELEVATIONS AT JACKSON HOLE EVEN RECEIVED
ACCUMULATING SNOW WHICH IS NO SURPRISE GIVEN H7 TEMPS WELL BELOW 0
DEG C. FORTUNATELY (OR UN- FORTUNATELY IF YOU ARE HOPING FOR
WINTER)...DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR CWA AS THE
COLDEST AIR SHOULD SLIDE EASTWARD ALONG THE WY-MT BORDER BEHIND
THE CLOSED LOW AND ATTENDANT NEG TILT MID LVL SHORTWAVE.
HOWEVER...COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH MID AFTN. H7 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEG C COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER CONFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL EFFECT. STILL EXPECT TO SEE
HIGHS AROUND 10-15 DEGREES F COOLER THAN MONDAY.

VERY FEW FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD ASIDE FROM CHALLENGES
IN THE FIRE WEATHER REALM FOR TODAY. WE ARE SEEING EXTREMELY POOR RH
RECOVERIES TONIGHT IN FWZ 310 WHERE WINDS HAVE STAYED UP LONGER AND
PROMOTED LLVL MIXING. KCYS HAD AN RH OF 30 PCT AT 08Z...SO THINK WE
WILL BE GETTING CLOSE TO THAT CRITERIA BY EARLY AFTN AS A MUCH DRIER
AIR MASS BECOMES ESTABLISHED POST-FROPA. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM ALL MODELS SHOW WINDS ALOFT GRADUALLY WEAKENING...BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM AGREE WITH DEEP MIXING TO AROUND 10K FEET...SO WE WILL MOST
LIKELY SEE AT LEAST OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH OR SO. THIS WILL
BE TRICKY THOUGH AS A MODEST MSLP GRADIENT SUGGESTS A VERY MARGINAL
EVENT WITH WEAKER SUSTAINED WINDS. DECIDED AGAINST RED FLAG WARNING
ISSUANCE FOR NOW...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. NO OTHER ISSUES
TO SPEAK OF. DO NOT EXPECT ANY CHANCES FOR PCPN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS WITH H7-H3 RH VALUES LESS THAN 20 PERCENT AND LARGE SCALE
SINKING MOTION. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS ON THU AFTN ALONG THE SFC TROUGH...BUT ALL SIGNS STILL POINT
TO IT BEING EXTREMELY DRY ALOFT. WILL MAINTAIN SCHC POPS THOUGH AS
THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW CAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG ALONG WITH SOME
LIGHT QPF.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...RELATIVELY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES. WITH MEAGER LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY...WHICH MESHES UP WELL WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

SATURDAY...MOSTLY DRY WEATHER LOOKS LIKE THE BEST BET AS FLOW ALOFT
STAYS NORTHWEST WITH MINIMAL LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...LIKELY ACTING AS A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.

SUNDAY...GREAT BASIN RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE. AGAIN...WITH
MINIMAL LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR
QUITE MEAGER.

MONDAY...GFS PROGS SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WHICH MAY HELP TO SPARK ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE EARLY EVENING. TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
AND WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW...EXPECTING
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS FOR THESE AREAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT AND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS MAY DECREASE ENOUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AT TIME OF LOWEST
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MARGINAL...BUT
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS DURING THE LATE MORNING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 310 WHERE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT
HAVE BEEN POOR. HUMIDITIES WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH MUCH LESS WIND ACROSS THE DISTRICT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...RJM



000
FXUS65 KCYS 281811
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1211 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EAST ACROSS
THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE EARLY THIS AM. POST-FROPA WINDS HAVE
BEEN RATHER GUSTY WITH EXCELLENT LLVL COLD ADVECTION AND FAVORABLE
SFC PRESSURE RISES (8MB/6HR) SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN
WYOMING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50
MPH WERE COMMON BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z...BUT WINDS ARE STARTING TO
RELAX A BIT AS MSLP GRADIENTS WEAKEN FROM W-E. THE DEEPEST COLD
AIR STILL LAGS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE FRONT. IN
FACT...THE 07Z LAKE YELLOWSTONE OBSERVATION SHOWED A TEMPERATURE
OF 34 DEGREES. HIGHER ELEVATIONS AT JACKSON HOLE EVEN RECEIVED
ACCUMULATING SNOW WHICH IS NO SURPRISE GIVEN H7 TEMPS WELL BELOW 0
DEG C. FORTUNATELY (OR UN- FORTUNATELY IF YOU ARE HOPING FOR
WINTER)...DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR CWA AS THE
COLDEST AIR SHOULD SLIDE EASTWARD ALONG THE WY-MT BORDER BEHIND
THE CLOSED LOW AND ATTENDANT NEG TILT MID LVL SHORTWAVE.
HOWEVER...COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH MID AFTN. H7 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEG C COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER CONFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL EFFECT. STILL EXPECT TO SEE
HIGHS AROUND 10-15 DEGREES F COOLER THAN MONDAY.

VERY FEW FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD ASIDE FROM CHALLENGES
IN THE FIRE WEATHER REALM FOR TODAY. WE ARE SEEING EXTREMELY POOR RH
RECOVERIES TONIGHT IN FWZ 310 WHERE WINDS HAVE STAYED UP LONGER AND
PROMOTED LLVL MIXING. KCYS HAD AN RH OF 30 PCT AT 08Z...SO THINK WE
WILL BE GETTING CLOSE TO THAT CRITERIA BY EARLY AFTN AS A MUCH DRIER
AIR MASS BECOMES ESTABLISHED POST-FROPA. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM ALL MODELS SHOW WINDS ALOFT GRADUALLY WEAKENING...BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM AGREE WITH DEEP MIXING TO AROUND 10K FEET...SO WE WILL MOST
LIKELY SEE AT LEAST OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH OR SO. THIS WILL
BE TRICKY THOUGH AS A MODEST MSLP GRADIENT SUGGESTS A VERY MARGINAL
EVENT WITH WEAKER SUSTAINED WINDS. DECIDED AGAINST RED FLAG WARNING
ISSUANCE FOR NOW...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. NO OTHER ISSUES
TO SPEAK OF. DO NOT EXPECT ANY CHANCES FOR PCPN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS WITH H7-H3 RH VALUES LESS THAN 20 PERCENT AND LARGE SCALE
SINKING MOTION. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS ON THU AFTN ALONG THE SFC TROUGH...BUT ALL SIGNS STILL POINT
TO IT BEING EXTREMELY DRY ALOFT. WILL MAINTAIN SCHC POPS THOUGH AS
THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW CAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG ALONG WITH SOME
LIGHT QPF.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...RELATIVELY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES. WITH MEAGER LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY...WHICH MESHES UP WELL WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

SATURDAY...MOSTLY DRY WEATHER LOOKS LIKE THE BEST BET AS FLOW ALOFT
STAYS NORTHWEST WITH MINIMAL LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...LIKELY ACTING AS A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.

SUNDAY...GREAT BASIN RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE. AGAIN...WITH
MINIMAL LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR
QUITE MEAGER.

MONDAY...GFS PROGS SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WHICH MAY HELP TO SPARK ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE EARLY EVENING. TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
AND WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW...EXPECTING
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS FOR THESE AREAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT AND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS MAY DECREASE ENOUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AT TIME OF LOWEST
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MARGINAL...BUT
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS DURING THE LATE MORNING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 310 WHERE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT
HAVE BEEN POOR. HUMIDITIES WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH MUCH LESS WIND ACROSS THE DISTRICT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...RJM



000
FXUS65 KRIW 281745
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1145 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED THE
STATE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AND LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING...AND WILL THEN TRACK EAST. COOL AIR ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 20 DEGREES COOLER IN SOME PLACES TODAY WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...HEIGHTS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE
DAY AND THE AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY TEMPER THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
AIRMASS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY AS WELL WITH NO PRECIPITATION WORTH
MENTIONING. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER TOO WITH ONLY A FEW 25 MPH
BREEZES LINGERING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH AS
OUR STORM LIFTS AWAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD BRINGING MAINLY DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME MID AND HIGH MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...THE MOST CONSISTENT SOLUTION DURING THIS PERIOD HAS
BEEN A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH SETTING UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...WHILE KEEPING THE NORTHERN STREAM STORM TRACK AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS NORTH OF THE AREA. GFS IS THE MOST
CONSISTENT WITH THIS OVERALL SETUP THOUGH THE PERIOD WHILE ECMWF
BEGINS TO LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. FORECAST GIVES MORE WEIGHT GFS AND CONSISTENCY. H5
HEIGHTS WILL AVERAGE 590-594DM THROUGH THE PERIOD...H7 TEMPS FROM
AROUND 14C IN THE NE TO 18C IN THE SW. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO
LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER CENTRAL BASINS WITH 80S ACROSS
THE WESTERN VALLEYS. A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
ON FRIDAY WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FOUR
CORNERS HIGH ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING A FEW HIGH-BASED STORMS MOSTLY ALONG FAVORED MOUNTAIN/VALLEY
CONVERGENCE AREAS. THIS IS THE TIME OF YEAR THE SW MONSOON USUALLY MAKES
A SURGE NORTHWARD...55-PLUS DEWPOINTS AND ALL. HOWEVER...55F
DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA
AND ARIZONA WITH LITTLE DEWPOINT RECOVERY ACROSS
WYOMING...AVERAGING IN THE 30S. THUS...STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
BE MORE EFFICIENT WIND PRODUCERS WITH LITTLE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

BREEZY WEST FLOW COULD CONTINUE ACROSS MANY SITES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EAST. WINDS WONT BE AS STRONG AS
YESTERDAY...BUT GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE IN STORE FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY A FEW TO
SCT CLOUDS POSSIBLE FROM KJAC - KCOD - KWRL - KBYG. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NW
WYOMING...MAINLY AFFECTING THE KCOD AREA. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS...WITH ONLY A FEW MID
LEVEL CU WILL THEN BE IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

REMAINING DRY TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WYOMING
WHERE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COULD DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID
TEENS. THIS COMBINED WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 MPH EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...COULD BRING BRIEF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FROM AROUND
NOON UNTIL 3 PM TODAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL ALSO SEE
COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...WITH MIN RH REMAINING
ANYWHERE FROM 20 TO 40 PERCENT. WARMING CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REMAINING DRY WITH LOW HUMIDITYSPREADING
FURTHER NORTH...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION OR HIGH WIND EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...ANGLIN
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN/ANGLIN




000
FXUS65 KRIW 281745
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1145 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED THE
STATE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AND LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING...AND WILL THEN TRACK EAST. COOL AIR ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 20 DEGREES COOLER IN SOME PLACES TODAY WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...HEIGHTS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE
DAY AND THE AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY TEMPER THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
AIRMASS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY AS WELL WITH NO PRECIPITATION WORTH
MENTIONING. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER TOO WITH ONLY A FEW 25 MPH
BREEZES LINGERING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH AS
OUR STORM LIFTS AWAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD BRINGING MAINLY DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME MID AND HIGH MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...THE MOST CONSISTENT SOLUTION DURING THIS PERIOD HAS
BEEN A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH SETTING UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...WHILE KEEPING THE NORTHERN STREAM STORM TRACK AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS NORTH OF THE AREA. GFS IS THE MOST
CONSISTENT WITH THIS OVERALL SETUP THOUGH THE PERIOD WHILE ECMWF
BEGINS TO LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. FORECAST GIVES MORE WEIGHT GFS AND CONSISTENCY. H5
HEIGHTS WILL AVERAGE 590-594DM THROUGH THE PERIOD...H7 TEMPS FROM
AROUND 14C IN THE NE TO 18C IN THE SW. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO
LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER CENTRAL BASINS WITH 80S ACROSS
THE WESTERN VALLEYS. A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
ON FRIDAY WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FOUR
CORNERS HIGH ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING A FEW HIGH-BASED STORMS MOSTLY ALONG FAVORED MOUNTAIN/VALLEY
CONVERGENCE AREAS. THIS IS THE TIME OF YEAR THE SW MONSOON USUALLY MAKES
A SURGE NORTHWARD...55-PLUS DEWPOINTS AND ALL. HOWEVER...55F
DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA
AND ARIZONA WITH LITTLE DEWPOINT RECOVERY ACROSS
WYOMING...AVERAGING IN THE 30S. THUS...STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
BE MORE EFFICIENT WIND PRODUCERS WITH LITTLE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

BREEZY WEST FLOW COULD CONTINUE ACROSS MANY SITES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EAST. WINDS WONT BE AS STRONG AS
YESTERDAY...BUT GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE IN STORE FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY A FEW TO
SCT CLOUDS POSSIBLE FROM KJAC - KCOD - KWRL - KBYG. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NW
WYOMING...MAINLY AFFECTING THE KCOD AREA. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS...WITH ONLY A FEW MID
LEVEL CU WILL THEN BE IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

REMAINING DRY TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WYOMING
WHERE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COULD DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID
TEENS. THIS COMBINED WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 MPH EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...COULD BRING BRIEF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FROM AROUND
NOON UNTIL 3 PM TODAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL ALSO SEE
COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...WITH MIN RH REMAINING
ANYWHERE FROM 20 TO 40 PERCENT. WARMING CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REMAINING DRY WITH LOW HUMIDITYSPREADING
FURTHER NORTH...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION OR HIGH WIND EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...ANGLIN
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN/ANGLIN




000
FXUS65 KRIW 281745
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1145 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED THE
STATE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AND LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING...AND WILL THEN TRACK EAST. COOL AIR ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 20 DEGREES COOLER IN SOME PLACES TODAY WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...HEIGHTS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE
DAY AND THE AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY TEMPER THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
AIRMASS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY AS WELL WITH NO PRECIPITATION WORTH
MENTIONING. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER TOO WITH ONLY A FEW 25 MPH
BREEZES LINGERING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH AS
OUR STORM LIFTS AWAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD BRINGING MAINLY DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME MID AND HIGH MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...THE MOST CONSISTENT SOLUTION DURING THIS PERIOD HAS
BEEN A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH SETTING UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...WHILE KEEPING THE NORTHERN STREAM STORM TRACK AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS NORTH OF THE AREA. GFS IS THE MOST
CONSISTENT WITH THIS OVERALL SETUP THOUGH THE PERIOD WHILE ECMWF
BEGINS TO LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. FORECAST GIVES MORE WEIGHT GFS AND CONSISTENCY. H5
HEIGHTS WILL AVERAGE 590-594DM THROUGH THE PERIOD...H7 TEMPS FROM
AROUND 14C IN THE NE TO 18C IN THE SW. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO
LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER CENTRAL BASINS WITH 80S ACROSS
THE WESTERN VALLEYS. A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
ON FRIDAY WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FOUR
CORNERS HIGH ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING A FEW HIGH-BASED STORMS MOSTLY ALONG FAVORED MOUNTAIN/VALLEY
CONVERGENCE AREAS. THIS IS THE TIME OF YEAR THE SW MONSOON USUALLY MAKES
A SURGE NORTHWARD...55-PLUS DEWPOINTS AND ALL. HOWEVER...55F
DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA
AND ARIZONA WITH LITTLE DEWPOINT RECOVERY ACROSS
WYOMING...AVERAGING IN THE 30S. THUS...STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
BE MORE EFFICIENT WIND PRODUCERS WITH LITTLE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

BREEZY WEST FLOW COULD CONTINUE ACROSS MANY SITES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EAST. WINDS WONT BE AS STRONG AS
YESTERDAY...BUT GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE IN STORE FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY A FEW TO
SCT CLOUDS POSSIBLE FROM KJAC - KCOD - KWRL - KBYG. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NW
WYOMING...MAINLY AFFECTING THE KCOD AREA. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS...WITH ONLY A FEW MID
LEVEL CU WILL THEN BE IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

REMAINING DRY TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WYOMING
WHERE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COULD DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID
TEENS. THIS COMBINED WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 MPH EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...COULD BRING BRIEF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FROM AROUND
NOON UNTIL 3 PM TODAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL ALSO SEE
COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...WITH MIN RH REMAINING
ANYWHERE FROM 20 TO 40 PERCENT. WARMING CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REMAINING DRY WITH LOW HUMIDITYSPREADING
FURTHER NORTH...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION OR HIGH WIND EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...ANGLIN
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN/ANGLIN




000
FXUS65 KRIW 281745
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1145 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED THE
STATE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AND LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING...AND WILL THEN TRACK EAST. COOL AIR ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 20 DEGREES COOLER IN SOME PLACES TODAY WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...HEIGHTS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE
DAY AND THE AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY TEMPER THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
AIRMASS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY AS WELL WITH NO PRECIPITATION WORTH
MENTIONING. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER TOO WITH ONLY A FEW 25 MPH
BREEZES LINGERING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH AS
OUR STORM LIFTS AWAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD BRINGING MAINLY DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME MID AND HIGH MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...THE MOST CONSISTENT SOLUTION DURING THIS PERIOD HAS
BEEN A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH SETTING UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...WHILE KEEPING THE NORTHERN STREAM STORM TRACK AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS NORTH OF THE AREA. GFS IS THE MOST
CONSISTENT WITH THIS OVERALL SETUP THOUGH THE PERIOD WHILE ECMWF
BEGINS TO LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. FORECAST GIVES MORE WEIGHT GFS AND CONSISTENCY. H5
HEIGHTS WILL AVERAGE 590-594DM THROUGH THE PERIOD...H7 TEMPS FROM
AROUND 14C IN THE NE TO 18C IN THE SW. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO
LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER CENTRAL BASINS WITH 80S ACROSS
THE WESTERN VALLEYS. A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
ON FRIDAY WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FOUR
CORNERS HIGH ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING A FEW HIGH-BASED STORMS MOSTLY ALONG FAVORED MOUNTAIN/VALLEY
CONVERGENCE AREAS. THIS IS THE TIME OF YEAR THE SW MONSOON USUALLY MAKES
A SURGE NORTHWARD...55-PLUS DEWPOINTS AND ALL. HOWEVER...55F
DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA
AND ARIZONA WITH LITTLE DEWPOINT RECOVERY ACROSS
WYOMING...AVERAGING IN THE 30S. THUS...STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
BE MORE EFFICIENT WIND PRODUCERS WITH LITTLE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

BREEZY WEST FLOW COULD CONTINUE ACROSS MANY SITES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EAST. WINDS WONT BE AS STRONG AS
YESTERDAY...BUT GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE IN STORE FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY A FEW TO
SCT CLOUDS POSSIBLE FROM KJAC - KCOD - KWRL - KBYG. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NW
WYOMING...MAINLY AFFECTING THE KCOD AREA. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS...WITH ONLY A FEW MID
LEVEL CU WILL THEN BE IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

REMAINING DRY TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WYOMING
WHERE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COULD DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID
TEENS. THIS COMBINED WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 MPH EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...COULD BRING BRIEF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FROM AROUND
NOON UNTIL 3 PM TODAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL ALSO SEE
COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...WITH MIN RH REMAINING
ANYWHERE FROM 20 TO 40 PERCENT. WARMING CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REMAINING DRY WITH LOW HUMIDITYSPREADING
FURTHER NORTH...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION OR HIGH WIND EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...ANGLIN
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN/ANGLIN




000
FXUS65 KRIW 281745
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1145 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED THE
STATE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AND LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING...AND WILL THEN TRACK EAST. COOL AIR ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 20 DEGREES COOLER IN SOME PLACES TODAY WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...HEIGHTS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE
DAY AND THE AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY TEMPER THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
AIRMASS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY AS WELL WITH NO PRECIPITATION WORTH
MENTIONING. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER TOO WITH ONLY A FEW 25 MPH
BREEZES LINGERING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH AS
OUR STORM LIFTS AWAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD BRINGING MAINLY DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME MID AND HIGH MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...THE MOST CONSISTENT SOLUTION DURING THIS PERIOD HAS
BEEN A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH SETTING UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...WHILE KEEPING THE NORTHERN STREAM STORM TRACK AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS NORTH OF THE AREA. GFS IS THE MOST
CONSISTENT WITH THIS OVERALL SETUP THOUGH THE PERIOD WHILE ECMWF
BEGINS TO LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. FORECAST GIVES MORE WEIGHT GFS AND CONSISTENCY. H5
HEIGHTS WILL AVERAGE 590-594DM THROUGH THE PERIOD...H7 TEMPS FROM
AROUND 14C IN THE NE TO 18C IN THE SW. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO
LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER CENTRAL BASINS WITH 80S ACROSS
THE WESTERN VALLEYS. A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
ON FRIDAY WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FOUR
CORNERS HIGH ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING A FEW HIGH-BASED STORMS MOSTLY ALONG FAVORED MOUNTAIN/VALLEY
CONVERGENCE AREAS. THIS IS THE TIME OF YEAR THE SW MONSOON USUALLY MAKES
A SURGE NORTHWARD...55-PLUS DEWPOINTS AND ALL. HOWEVER...55F
DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA
AND ARIZONA WITH LITTLE DEWPOINT RECOVERY ACROSS
WYOMING...AVERAGING IN THE 30S. THUS...STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
BE MORE EFFICIENT WIND PRODUCERS WITH LITTLE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

BREEZY WEST FLOW COULD CONTINUE ACROSS MANY SITES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EAST. WINDS WONT BE AS STRONG AS
YESTERDAY...BUT GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE IN STORE FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY A FEW TO
SCT CLOUDS POSSIBLE FROM KJAC - KCOD - KWRL - KBYG. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NW
WYOMING...MAINLY AFFECTING THE KCOD AREA. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS...WITH ONLY A FEW MID
LEVEL CU WILL THEN BE IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

REMAINING DRY TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WYOMING
WHERE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COULD DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID
TEENS. THIS COMBINED WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 MPH EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...COULD BRING BRIEF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FROM AROUND
NOON UNTIL 3 PM TODAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL ALSO SEE
COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...WITH MIN RH REMAINING
ANYWHERE FROM 20 TO 40 PERCENT. WARMING CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REMAINING DRY WITH LOW HUMIDITYSPREADING
FURTHER NORTH...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION OR HIGH WIND EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...ANGLIN
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN/ANGLIN



000
FXUS65 KRIW 281745
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1145 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED THE
STATE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AND LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING...AND WILL THEN TRACK EAST. COOL AIR ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 20 DEGREES COOLER IN SOME PLACES TODAY WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...HEIGHTS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE
DAY AND THE AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY TEMPER THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
AIRMASS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY AS WELL WITH NO PRECIPITATION WORTH
MENTIONING. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER TOO WITH ONLY A FEW 25 MPH
BREEZES LINGERING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH AS
OUR STORM LIFTS AWAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD BRINGING MAINLY DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME MID AND HIGH MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...THE MOST CONSISTENT SOLUTION DURING THIS PERIOD HAS
BEEN A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH SETTING UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...WHILE KEEPING THE NORTHERN STREAM STORM TRACK AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS NORTH OF THE AREA. GFS IS THE MOST
CONSISTENT WITH THIS OVERALL SETUP THOUGH THE PERIOD WHILE ECMWF
BEGINS TO LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. FORECAST GIVES MORE WEIGHT GFS AND CONSISTENCY. H5
HEIGHTS WILL AVERAGE 590-594DM THROUGH THE PERIOD...H7 TEMPS FROM
AROUND 14C IN THE NE TO 18C IN THE SW. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO
LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER CENTRAL BASINS WITH 80S ACROSS
THE WESTERN VALLEYS. A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
ON FRIDAY WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FOUR
CORNERS HIGH ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING A FEW HIGH-BASED STORMS MOSTLY ALONG FAVORED MOUNTAIN/VALLEY
CONVERGENCE AREAS. THIS IS THE TIME OF YEAR THE SW MONSOON USUALLY MAKES
A SURGE NORTHWARD...55-PLUS DEWPOINTS AND ALL. HOWEVER...55F
DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA
AND ARIZONA WITH LITTLE DEWPOINT RECOVERY ACROSS
WYOMING...AVERAGING IN THE 30S. THUS...STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
BE MORE EFFICIENT WIND PRODUCERS WITH LITTLE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

BREEZY WEST FLOW COULD CONTINUE ACROSS MANY SITES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EAST. WINDS WONT BE AS STRONG AS
YESTERDAY...BUT GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE IN STORE FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY A FEW TO
SCT CLOUDS POSSIBLE FROM KJAC - KCOD - KWRL - KBYG. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NW
WYOMING...MAINLY AFFECTING THE KCOD AREA. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS...WITH ONLY A FEW MID
LEVEL CU WILL THEN BE IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

REMAINING DRY TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WYOMING
WHERE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COULD DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID
TEENS. THIS COMBINED WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 MPH EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...COULD BRING BRIEF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FROM AROUND
NOON UNTIL 3 PM TODAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL ALSO SEE
COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...WITH MIN RH REMAINING
ANYWHERE FROM 20 TO 40 PERCENT. WARMING CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REMAINING DRY WITH LOW HUMIDITYSPREADING
FURTHER NORTH...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION OR HIGH WIND EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...ANGLIN
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN/ANGLIN



000
FXUS65 KRIW 281745
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1145 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED THE
STATE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AND LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING...AND WILL THEN TRACK EAST. COOL AIR ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 20 DEGREES COOLER IN SOME PLACES TODAY WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...HEIGHTS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE
DAY AND THE AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY TEMPER THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
AIRMASS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY AS WELL WITH NO PRECIPITATION WORTH
MENTIONING. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER TOO WITH ONLY A FEW 25 MPH
BREEZES LINGERING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH AS
OUR STORM LIFTS AWAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD BRINGING MAINLY DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME MID AND HIGH MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...THE MOST CONSISTENT SOLUTION DURING THIS PERIOD HAS
BEEN A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH SETTING UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...WHILE KEEPING THE NORTHERN STREAM STORM TRACK AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS NORTH OF THE AREA. GFS IS THE MOST
CONSISTENT WITH THIS OVERALL SETUP THOUGH THE PERIOD WHILE ECMWF
BEGINS TO LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. FORECAST GIVES MORE WEIGHT GFS AND CONSISTENCY. H5
HEIGHTS WILL AVERAGE 590-594DM THROUGH THE PERIOD...H7 TEMPS FROM
AROUND 14C IN THE NE TO 18C IN THE SW. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO
LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER CENTRAL BASINS WITH 80S ACROSS
THE WESTERN VALLEYS. A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
ON FRIDAY WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FOUR
CORNERS HIGH ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING A FEW HIGH-BASED STORMS MOSTLY ALONG FAVORED MOUNTAIN/VALLEY
CONVERGENCE AREAS. THIS IS THE TIME OF YEAR THE SW MONSOON USUALLY MAKES
A SURGE NORTHWARD...55-PLUS DEWPOINTS AND ALL. HOWEVER...55F
DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA
AND ARIZONA WITH LITTLE DEWPOINT RECOVERY ACROSS
WYOMING...AVERAGING IN THE 30S. THUS...STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
BE MORE EFFICIENT WIND PRODUCERS WITH LITTLE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

BREEZY WEST FLOW COULD CONTINUE ACROSS MANY SITES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EAST. WINDS WONT BE AS STRONG AS
YESTERDAY...BUT GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE IN STORE FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY A FEW TO
SCT CLOUDS POSSIBLE FROM KJAC - KCOD - KWRL - KBYG. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NW
WYOMING...MAINLY AFFECTING THE KCOD AREA. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS...WITH ONLY A FEW MID
LEVEL CU WILL THEN BE IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

REMAINING DRY TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WYOMING
WHERE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COULD DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID
TEENS. THIS COMBINED WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 MPH EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...COULD BRING BRIEF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FROM AROUND
NOON UNTIL 3 PM TODAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL ALSO SEE
COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...WITH MIN RH REMAINING
ANYWHERE FROM 20 TO 40 PERCENT. WARMING CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REMAINING DRY WITH LOW HUMIDITYSPREADING
FURTHER NORTH...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION OR HIGH WIND EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...ANGLIN
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN/ANGLIN



000
FXUS65 KRIW 281745
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1145 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED THE
STATE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AND LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING...AND WILL THEN TRACK EAST. COOL AIR ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 20 DEGREES COOLER IN SOME PLACES TODAY WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...HEIGHTS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE
DAY AND THE AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY TEMPER THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
AIRMASS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY AS WELL WITH NO PRECIPITATION WORTH
MENTIONING. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER TOO WITH ONLY A FEW 25 MPH
BREEZES LINGERING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH AS
OUR STORM LIFTS AWAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD BRINGING MAINLY DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME MID AND HIGH MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...THE MOST CONSISTENT SOLUTION DURING THIS PERIOD HAS
BEEN A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH SETTING UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...WHILE KEEPING THE NORTHERN STREAM STORM TRACK AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS NORTH OF THE AREA. GFS IS THE MOST
CONSISTENT WITH THIS OVERALL SETUP THOUGH THE PERIOD WHILE ECMWF
BEGINS TO LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. FORECAST GIVES MORE WEIGHT GFS AND CONSISTENCY. H5
HEIGHTS WILL AVERAGE 590-594DM THROUGH THE PERIOD...H7 TEMPS FROM
AROUND 14C IN THE NE TO 18C IN THE SW. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO
LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER CENTRAL BASINS WITH 80S ACROSS
THE WESTERN VALLEYS. A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
ON FRIDAY WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FOUR
CORNERS HIGH ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING A FEW HIGH-BASED STORMS MOSTLY ALONG FAVORED MOUNTAIN/VALLEY
CONVERGENCE AREAS. THIS IS THE TIME OF YEAR THE SW MONSOON USUALLY MAKES
A SURGE NORTHWARD...55-PLUS DEWPOINTS AND ALL. HOWEVER...55F
DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA
AND ARIZONA WITH LITTLE DEWPOINT RECOVERY ACROSS
WYOMING...AVERAGING IN THE 30S. THUS...STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
BE MORE EFFICIENT WIND PRODUCERS WITH LITTLE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

BREEZY WEST FLOW COULD CONTINUE ACROSS MANY SITES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EAST. WINDS WONT BE AS STRONG AS
YESTERDAY...BUT GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE IN STORE FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY A FEW TO
SCT CLOUDS POSSIBLE FROM KJAC - KCOD - KWRL - KBYG. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NW
WYOMING...MAINLY AFFECTING THE KCOD AREA. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS...WITH ONLY A FEW MID
LEVEL CU WILL THEN BE IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

REMAINING DRY TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WYOMING
WHERE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COULD DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID
TEENS. THIS COMBINED WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 MPH EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...COULD BRING BRIEF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FROM AROUND
NOON UNTIL 3 PM TODAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL ALSO SEE
COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...WITH MIN RH REMAINING
ANYWHERE FROM 20 TO 40 PERCENT. WARMING CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REMAINING DRY WITH LOW HUMIDITYSPREADING
FURTHER NORTH...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION OR HIGH WIND EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...ANGLIN
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN/ANGLIN



000
FXUS63 KUNR 281727
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1127 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER SOUTHEAST SK WITH COLD FRONT
INTO CENTRAL NE. MCS IS PUSHING EAST OF CWA AS UPPER LOW SPINS
OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT AND 70KT JET STREAK PUSHES DRY SLOT INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

TODAY...UPPER LOW CATCHES UP WITH SURFACE LOW AND STACKS UP.
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH SPINNING AROUND SURFACE LOW WILL CLIP FAR
NORTHWEST SD...TAPPING INTO 35-45KTS 850MB WINDS. AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXES OUT THIS MORNING WOULD EXPECT GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DEVELOP WITH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA WINDS OVER NORTHWEST
SD...MAINLY FROM K2WX TO KD07. SHARP CUTOFF TO HIGHER WINDS EXPECTED
GIVEN STRONGER WESTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL FLOW. SUBSIDENCE WILL
PROMOTE DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...DRY WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WILL PROMOTE PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY RESULT IN
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...AND THE ECMWF KEEPING FLOW
MORE ZONAL AS A CANADIAN TROUGH FLATTENS THE RIDGE. WHILE BOTH
SOLUTIONS HAVE SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCING
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE ECMWF IS HINTING AT A SLIGHTLY MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN THAN THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY
AND NORTHERN SD THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS
FAR NORTHWESTERN SD...WHERE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 50 KT CAN BE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ025-032-072-073.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-
     012>014.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KUNR 281727
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1127 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER SOUTHEAST SK WITH COLD FRONT
INTO CENTRAL NE. MCS IS PUSHING EAST OF CWA AS UPPER LOW SPINS
OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT AND 70KT JET STREAK PUSHES DRY SLOT INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

TODAY...UPPER LOW CATCHES UP WITH SURFACE LOW AND STACKS UP.
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH SPINNING AROUND SURFACE LOW WILL CLIP FAR
NORTHWEST SD...TAPPING INTO 35-45KTS 850MB WINDS. AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXES OUT THIS MORNING WOULD EXPECT GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DEVELOP WITH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA WINDS OVER NORTHWEST
SD...MAINLY FROM K2WX TO KD07. SHARP CUTOFF TO HIGHER WINDS EXPECTED
GIVEN STRONGER WESTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL FLOW. SUBSIDENCE WILL
PROMOTE DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...DRY WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WILL PROMOTE PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY RESULT IN
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...AND THE ECMWF KEEPING FLOW
MORE ZONAL AS A CANADIAN TROUGH FLATTENS THE RIDGE. WHILE BOTH
SOLUTIONS HAVE SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCING
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE ECMWF IS HINTING AT A SLIGHTLY MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN THAN THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY
AND NORTHERN SD THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS
FAR NORTHWESTERN SD...WHERE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 50 KT CAN BE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ025-032-072-073.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-
     012>014.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KUNR 281727
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1127 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER SOUTHEAST SK WITH COLD FRONT
INTO CENTRAL NE. MCS IS PUSHING EAST OF CWA AS UPPER LOW SPINS
OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT AND 70KT JET STREAK PUSHES DRY SLOT INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

TODAY...UPPER LOW CATCHES UP WITH SURFACE LOW AND STACKS UP.
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH SPINNING AROUND SURFACE LOW WILL CLIP FAR
NORTHWEST SD...TAPPING INTO 35-45KTS 850MB WINDS. AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXES OUT THIS MORNING WOULD EXPECT GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DEVELOP WITH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA WINDS OVER NORTHWEST
SD...MAINLY FROM K2WX TO KD07. SHARP CUTOFF TO HIGHER WINDS EXPECTED
GIVEN STRONGER WESTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL FLOW. SUBSIDENCE WILL
PROMOTE DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...DRY WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WILL PROMOTE PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY RESULT IN
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...AND THE ECMWF KEEPING FLOW
MORE ZONAL AS A CANADIAN TROUGH FLATTENS THE RIDGE. WHILE BOTH
SOLUTIONS HAVE SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCING
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE ECMWF IS HINTING AT A SLIGHTLY MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN THAN THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY
AND NORTHERN SD THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS
FAR NORTHWESTERN SD...WHERE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 50 KT CAN BE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ025-032-072-073.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-
     012>014.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KUNR 281727
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1127 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER SOUTHEAST SK WITH COLD FRONT
INTO CENTRAL NE. MCS IS PUSHING EAST OF CWA AS UPPER LOW SPINS
OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT AND 70KT JET STREAK PUSHES DRY SLOT INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

TODAY...UPPER LOW CATCHES UP WITH SURFACE LOW AND STACKS UP.
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH SPINNING AROUND SURFACE LOW WILL CLIP FAR
NORTHWEST SD...TAPPING INTO 35-45KTS 850MB WINDS. AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXES OUT THIS MORNING WOULD EXPECT GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DEVELOP WITH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA WINDS OVER NORTHWEST
SD...MAINLY FROM K2WX TO KD07. SHARP CUTOFF TO HIGHER WINDS EXPECTED
GIVEN STRONGER WESTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL FLOW. SUBSIDENCE WILL
PROMOTE DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...DRY WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WILL PROMOTE PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY RESULT IN
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...AND THE ECMWF KEEPING FLOW
MORE ZONAL AS A CANADIAN TROUGH FLATTENS THE RIDGE. WHILE BOTH
SOLUTIONS HAVE SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCING
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE ECMWF IS HINTING AT A SLIGHTLY MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN THAN THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY
AND NORTHERN SD THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS
FAR NORTHWESTERN SD...WHERE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 50 KT CAN BE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ025-032-072-073.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-
     012>014.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KUNR 281727
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1127 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER SOUTHEAST SK WITH COLD FRONT
INTO CENTRAL NE. MCS IS PUSHING EAST OF CWA AS UPPER LOW SPINS
OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT AND 70KT JET STREAK PUSHES DRY SLOT INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

TODAY...UPPER LOW CATCHES UP WITH SURFACE LOW AND STACKS UP.
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH SPINNING AROUND SURFACE LOW WILL CLIP FAR
NORTHWEST SD...TAPPING INTO 35-45KTS 850MB WINDS. AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXES OUT THIS MORNING WOULD EXPECT GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DEVELOP WITH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA WINDS OVER NORTHWEST
SD...MAINLY FROM K2WX TO KD07. SHARP CUTOFF TO HIGHER WINDS EXPECTED
GIVEN STRONGER WESTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL FLOW. SUBSIDENCE WILL
PROMOTE DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...DRY WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WILL PROMOTE PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY RESULT IN
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...AND THE ECMWF KEEPING FLOW
MORE ZONAL AS A CANADIAN TROUGH FLATTENS THE RIDGE. WHILE BOTH
SOLUTIONS HAVE SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCING
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE ECMWF IS HINTING AT A SLIGHTLY MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN THAN THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY
AND NORTHERN SD THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS
FAR NORTHWESTERN SD...WHERE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 50 KT CAN BE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ025-032-072-073.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-
     012>014.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS63 KUNR 281102
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
502 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER SOUTHEAST SK WITH COLD FRONT
INTO CENTRAL NE. MCS IS PUSHING EAST OF CWA AS UPPER LOW SPINS
OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT AND 70KT JET STREAK PUSHES DRY SLOT INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

TODAY...UPPER LOW CATCHES UP WITH SURFACE LOW AND STACKS UP.
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH SPINNING AROUND SURFACE LOW WILL CLIP FAR
NORTHWEST SD...TAPPING INTO 35-45KTS 850MB WINDS. AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXES OUT THIS MORNING WOULD EXPECT GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DEVELOP WITH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA WINDS OVER NORTHWEST
SD...MAINLY FROM K2WX TO KD07. SHARP CUTOFF TO HIGHER WINDS EXPECTED
GIVEN STRONGER WESTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL FLOW. SUBSIDENCE WILL
PROMOTE DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...DRY WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WILL PROMOTE PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY RESULT IN
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...AND THE ECMWF KEEPING FLOW
MORE ZONAL AS A CANADIAN TROUGH FLATTENS THE RIDGE. WHILE BOTH
SOLUTIONS HAVE SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCING
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE ECMWF IS HINTING AT A SLIGHTLY MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN THAN THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 502 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

FOLLOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT...GUSTY WNW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
ACROSS NW SD THIS AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED NEAR 40 KTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 50 KTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SDZ025-032-072-073.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR SDZ013-014.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE




000
FXUS63 KUNR 281102
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
502 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER SOUTHEAST SK WITH COLD FRONT
INTO CENTRAL NE. MCS IS PUSHING EAST OF CWA AS UPPER LOW SPINS
OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT AND 70KT JET STREAK PUSHES DRY SLOT INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

TODAY...UPPER LOW CATCHES UP WITH SURFACE LOW AND STACKS UP.
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH SPINNING AROUND SURFACE LOW WILL CLIP FAR
NORTHWEST SD...TAPPING INTO 35-45KTS 850MB WINDS. AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXES OUT THIS MORNING WOULD EXPECT GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DEVELOP WITH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA WINDS OVER NORTHWEST
SD...MAINLY FROM K2WX TO KD07. SHARP CUTOFF TO HIGHER WINDS EXPECTED
GIVEN STRONGER WESTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL FLOW. SUBSIDENCE WILL
PROMOTE DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...DRY WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WILL PROMOTE PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY RESULT IN
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...AND THE ECMWF KEEPING FLOW
MORE ZONAL AS A CANADIAN TROUGH FLATTENS THE RIDGE. WHILE BOTH
SOLUTIONS HAVE SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCING
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE ECMWF IS HINTING AT A SLIGHTLY MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN THAN THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 502 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

FOLLOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT...GUSTY WNW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
ACROSS NW SD THIS AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED NEAR 40 KTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 50 KTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SDZ025-032-072-073.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR SDZ013-014.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE



000
FXUS63 KUNR 281102
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
502 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER SOUTHEAST SK WITH COLD FRONT
INTO CENTRAL NE. MCS IS PUSHING EAST OF CWA AS UPPER LOW SPINS
OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT AND 70KT JET STREAK PUSHES DRY SLOT INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

TODAY...UPPER LOW CATCHES UP WITH SURFACE LOW AND STACKS UP.
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH SPINNING AROUND SURFACE LOW WILL CLIP FAR
NORTHWEST SD...TAPPING INTO 35-45KTS 850MB WINDS. AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXES OUT THIS MORNING WOULD EXPECT GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DEVELOP WITH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA WINDS OVER NORTHWEST
SD...MAINLY FROM K2WX TO KD07. SHARP CUTOFF TO HIGHER WINDS EXPECTED
GIVEN STRONGER WESTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL FLOW. SUBSIDENCE WILL
PROMOTE DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...DRY WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WILL PROMOTE PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY RESULT IN
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...AND THE ECMWF KEEPING FLOW
MORE ZONAL AS A CANADIAN TROUGH FLATTENS THE RIDGE. WHILE BOTH
SOLUTIONS HAVE SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCING
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE ECMWF IS HINTING AT A SLIGHTLY MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN THAN THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 502 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

FOLLOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT...GUSTY WNW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
ACROSS NW SD THIS AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED NEAR 40 KTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 50 KTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SDZ025-032-072-073.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR SDZ013-014.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE




000
FXUS65 KCYS 281002
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
402 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EAST ACROSS
THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE EARLY THIS AM. POST-FROPA WINDS HAVE
BEEN RATHER GUSTY WITH EXCELLENT LLVL COLD ADVECTION AND FAVORABLE
SFC PRESSURE RISES (8MB/6HR) SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN
WYOMING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50
MPH WERE COMMON BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z...BUT WINDS ARE STARTING TO
RELAX A BIT AS MSLP GRADIENTS WEAKEN FROM W-E. THE DEEPEST COLD
AIR STILL LAGS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE FRONT. IN
FACT...THE 07Z LAKE YELLOWSTONE OBSERVATION SHOWED A TEMPERATURE
OF 34 DEGREES. HIGHER ELEVATIONS AT JACKSON HOLE EVEN RECEIVED
ACCUMULATING SNOW WHICH IS NO SURPRISE GIVEN H7 TEMPS WELL BELOW 0
DEG C. FORTUNATELY (OR UN- FORTUNATELY IF YOU ARE HOPING FOR
WINTER)...DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR CWA AS THE
COLDEST AIR SHOULD SLIDE EASTWARD ALONG THE WY-MT BORDER BEHIND
THE CLOSED LOW AND ATTENDANT NEG TILT MID LVL SHORTWAVE.
HOWEVER...COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH MID AFTN. H7 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEG C COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER CONFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL EFFECT. STILL EXPECT TO SEE
HIGHS AROUND 10-15 DEGREES F COOLER THAN MONDAY.

VERY FEW FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD ASIDE FROM CHALLENGES
IN THE FIRE WEATHER REALM FOR TODAY. WE ARE SEEING EXTREMELY POOR RH
RECOVERIES TONIGHT IN FWZ 310 WHERE WINDS HAVE STAYED UP LONGER AND
PROMOTED LLVL MIXING. KCYS HAD AN RH OF 30 PCT AT 08Z...SO THINK WE
WILL BE GETTING CLOSE TO THAT CRITERIA BY EARLY AFTN AS A MUCH DRIER
AIR MASS BECOMES ESTABLISHED POST-FROPA. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM ALL MODELS SHOW WINDS ALOFT GRADUALLY WEAKENING...BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM AGREE WITH DEEP MIXING TO AROUND 10K FEET...SO WE WILL MOST
LIKELY SEE AT LEAST OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH OR SO. THIS WILL
BE TRICKY THOUGH AS A MODEST MSLP GRADIENT SUGGESTS A VERY MARGINAL
EVENT WITH WEAKER SUSTAINED WINDS. DECIDED AGAINST RED FLAG WARNING
ISSUANCE FOR NOW...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. NO OTHER ISSUES
TO SPEAK OF. DO NOT EXPECT ANY CHANCES FOR PCPN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS WITH H7-H3 RH VALUES LESS THAN 20 PERCENT AND LARGE SCALE
SINKING MOTION. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS ON THU AFTN ALONG THE SFC TROUGH...BUT ALL SIGNS STILL POINT
TO IT BEING EXTREMELY DRY ALOFT. WILL MAINTAIN SCHC POPS THOUGH AS
THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW CAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG ALONG WITH SOME
LIGHT QPF.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...RELATIVELY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES. WITH MEAGER LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY...WHICH MESHES UP WELL WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

SATURDAY...MOSTLY DRY WEATHER LOOKS LIKE THE BEST BET AS FLOW ALOFT
STAYS NORTHWEST WITH MINIMAL LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...LIKELY ACTING AS A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.

SUNDAY...GREAT BASIN RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE. AGAIN...WITH
MINIMAL LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR
QUITE MEAGER.

MONDAY...GFS PROGS SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WHICH MAY HELP TO SPARK ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR. GUSTY WINDS AFTER DAYBREAK...DECREASING AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT AND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS MAY DECREASE ENOUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AT TIME OF LOWEST
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MARGINAL...BUT
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS DURING THE LATE MORNING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 310 WHERE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT
HAVE BEEN POOR. HUMIDITIES WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH MUCH LESS WIND ACROSS THE DISTRICT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...RJM



000
FXUS65 KCYS 281002
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
402 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EAST ACROSS
THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE EARLY THIS AM. POST-FROPA WINDS HAVE
BEEN RATHER GUSTY WITH EXCELLENT LLVL COLD ADVECTION AND FAVORABLE
SFC PRESSURE RISES (8MB/6HR) SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN
WYOMING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50
MPH WERE COMMON BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z...BUT WINDS ARE STARTING TO
RELAX A BIT AS MSLP GRADIENTS WEAKEN FROM W-E. THE DEEPEST COLD
AIR STILL LAGS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE FRONT. IN
FACT...THE 07Z LAKE YELLOWSTONE OBSERVATION SHOWED A TEMPERATURE
OF 34 DEGREES. HIGHER ELEVATIONS AT JACKSON HOLE EVEN RECEIVED
ACCUMULATING SNOW WHICH IS NO SURPRISE GIVEN H7 TEMPS WELL BELOW 0
DEG C. FORTUNATELY (OR UN- FORTUNATELY IF YOU ARE HOPING FOR
WINTER)...DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR CWA AS THE
COLDEST AIR SHOULD SLIDE EASTWARD ALONG THE WY-MT BORDER BEHIND
THE CLOSED LOW AND ATTENDANT NEG TILT MID LVL SHORTWAVE.
HOWEVER...COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH MID AFTN. H7 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEG C COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER CONFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL EFFECT. STILL EXPECT TO SEE
HIGHS AROUND 10-15 DEGREES F COOLER THAN MONDAY.

VERY FEW FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD ASIDE FROM CHALLENGES
IN THE FIRE WEATHER REALM FOR TODAY. WE ARE SEEING EXTREMELY POOR RH
RECOVERIES TONIGHT IN FWZ 310 WHERE WINDS HAVE STAYED UP LONGER AND
PROMOTED LLVL MIXING. KCYS HAD AN RH OF 30 PCT AT 08Z...SO THINK WE
WILL BE GETTING CLOSE TO THAT CRITERIA BY EARLY AFTN AS A MUCH DRIER
AIR MASS BECOMES ESTABLISHED POST-FROPA. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM ALL MODELS SHOW WINDS ALOFT GRADUALLY WEAKENING...BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM AGREE WITH DEEP MIXING TO AROUND 10K FEET...SO WE WILL MOST
LIKELY SEE AT LEAST OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH OR SO. THIS WILL
BE TRICKY THOUGH AS A MODEST MSLP GRADIENT SUGGESTS A VERY MARGINAL
EVENT WITH WEAKER SUSTAINED WINDS. DECIDED AGAINST RED FLAG WARNING
ISSUANCE FOR NOW...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. NO OTHER ISSUES
TO SPEAK OF. DO NOT EXPECT ANY CHANCES FOR PCPN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS WITH H7-H3 RH VALUES LESS THAN 20 PERCENT AND LARGE SCALE
SINKING MOTION. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS ON THU AFTN ALONG THE SFC TROUGH...BUT ALL SIGNS STILL POINT
TO IT BEING EXTREMELY DRY ALOFT. WILL MAINTAIN SCHC POPS THOUGH AS
THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW CAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG ALONG WITH SOME
LIGHT QPF.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...RELATIVELY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES. WITH MEAGER LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY...WHICH MESHES UP WELL WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

SATURDAY...MOSTLY DRY WEATHER LOOKS LIKE THE BEST BET AS FLOW ALOFT
STAYS NORTHWEST WITH MINIMAL LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...LIKELY ACTING AS A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.

SUNDAY...GREAT BASIN RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE. AGAIN...WITH
MINIMAL LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR
QUITE MEAGER.

MONDAY...GFS PROGS SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WHICH MAY HELP TO SPARK ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR. GUSTY WINDS AFTER DAYBREAK...DECREASING AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT AND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS MAY DECREASE ENOUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AT TIME OF LOWEST
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MARGINAL...BUT
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS DURING THE LATE MORNING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 310 WHERE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT
HAVE BEEN POOR. HUMIDITIES WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH MUCH LESS WIND ACROSS THE DISTRICT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...RJM




000
FXUS63 KUNR 280836
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
236 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER SOUTHEAST SK WITH COLD FRONT
INTO CENTRAL NE. MCS IS PUSHING EAST OF CWA AS UPPER LOW SPINS
OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT AND 70KT JET STREAK PUSHES DRY SLOT INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

TODAY...UPPER LOW CATCHES UP WITH SURFACE LOW AND STACKS UP.
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH SPINNING AROUND SURFACE LOW WILL CLIP FAR
NORTHWEST SD...TAPPING INTO 35-45KTS 850MB WINDS. AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXES OUT THIS MORNING WOULD EXPECT GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DEVELOP WITH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA WINDS OVER NORTHWEST
SD...MAINLY FROM K2WX TO KD07. SHARP CUTOFF TO HIGHER WINDS EXPECTED
GIVEN STRONGER WESTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL FLOW. SUBSIDENCE WILL
PROMOTE DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...DRY WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WILL PROMOTE PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY RESULT IN
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...AND THE ECMWF KEEPING FLOW
MORE ZONAL AS A CANADIAN TROUGH FLATTENS THE RIDGE. WHILE BOTH
SOLUTIONS HAVE SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCING
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE ECMWF IS HINTING AT A SLIGHTLY MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN THAN THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

FOLLOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT...GUSTY WNW WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS
NW SD THIS AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED NEAR 40 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 50
KTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SDZ073.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR SDZ013-014.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE



000
FXUS63 KUNR 280836
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
236 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER SOUTHEAST SK WITH COLD FRONT
INTO CENTRAL NE. MCS IS PUSHING EAST OF CWA AS UPPER LOW SPINS
OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT AND 70KT JET STREAK PUSHES DRY SLOT INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

TODAY...UPPER LOW CATCHES UP WITH SURFACE LOW AND STACKS UP.
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH SPINNING AROUND SURFACE LOW WILL CLIP FAR
NORTHWEST SD...TAPPING INTO 35-45KTS 850MB WINDS. AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXES OUT THIS MORNING WOULD EXPECT GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DEVELOP WITH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA WINDS OVER NORTHWEST
SD...MAINLY FROM K2WX TO KD07. SHARP CUTOFF TO HIGHER WINDS EXPECTED
GIVEN STRONGER WESTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL FLOW. SUBSIDENCE WILL
PROMOTE DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...DRY WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WILL PROMOTE PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY RESULT IN
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...AND THE ECMWF KEEPING FLOW
MORE ZONAL AS A CANADIAN TROUGH FLATTENS THE RIDGE. WHILE BOTH
SOLUTIONS HAVE SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCING
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE ECMWF IS HINTING AT A SLIGHTLY MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN THAN THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

FOLLOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT...GUSTY WNW WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS
NW SD THIS AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED NEAR 40 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 50
KTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SDZ073.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR SDZ013-014.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE




000
FXUS65 KRIW 280832
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
232 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED THE
STATE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AND LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING...AND WILL THEN TRACK EAST. COOL AIR ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 20 DEGREES COOLER IN SOME PLACES TODAY WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...HEIGHTS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE
DAY AND THE AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY TEMPER THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
AIRMASS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY AS WELL WITH NO PRECIPITATION WORTH
MENTIONING. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER TOO WITH ONLY A FEW 25 MPH
BREEZES LINGERING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH AS
OUR STORM LIFTS AWAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD BRINGING MAINLY DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME MID AND HIGH MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...THE MOST CONSISTENT SOLUTION DURING THIS PERIOD HAS
BEEN A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH SETTING UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...WHILE KEEPING THE NORTHERN STREAM STORM TRACK AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS NORTH OF THE AREA. GFS IS THE MOST
CONSISTENT WITH THIS OVERALL SETUP THOUGH THE PERIOD WHILE ECMWF
BEGINS TO LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. FORECAST GIVES MORE WEIGHT GFS AND CONSISTENCY. H5
HEIGHTS WILL AVERAGE 590-594DM THROUGH THE PERIOD...H7 TEMPS FROM
AROUND 14C IN THE NE TO 18C IN THE SW. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO
LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER CENTRAL BASINS WITH 80S ACROSS
THE WESTERN VALLEYS. A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
ON FRIDAY WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FOUR
CORNERS HIGH ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING A FEW HIGH-BASED STORMS MOSTLY ALONG FAVORED MOUNTAIN/VALLEY
CONVERGENCE AREAS. THIS IS THE TIME OF YEAR THE SW MONSOON USUALLY MAKES
A SURGE NORTHWARD...55-PLUS DEWPOINTS AND ALL. HOWEVER...55F
DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA
AND ARIZONA WITH LITTLE DEWPOINT RECOVERY ACROSS
WYOMING...AVERAGING IN THE 30S. THUS...STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
BE MORE EFFICIENT WIND PRODUCERS WITH LITTLE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. A BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AFTER 16Z TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN WIND
CORRIDOR FROM KRKS TO KCPR AND NEAR KRIW...BUT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
AS ON MONDAY. EXPECT SKC FOR MOST AREAS FOR MOST OF TOMORROW. WIND
WILL DROP UNDER 10 KNOTS FOR ALL TAF SITES AFTER 02Z WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

REMAINING DRY TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING WHERE
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COULD DROP INTO THE LOW TEENS. HOWEVER
IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH LIGHTER WINDS...A FEW 25 MPH GUSTS
WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
NO WIDESPREAD DANGEROUS CONDITIONS WILL EXIST. WARMER ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND REMAINING DRY WITH LOW HUMIDITY SPREADING
FURTHER NORTH...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION OR HIGH WIND EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN




000
FXUS65 KRIW 280832
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
232 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED THE
STATE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AND LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING...AND WILL THEN TRACK EAST. COOL AIR ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 20 DEGREES COOLER IN SOME PLACES TODAY WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...HEIGHTS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE
DAY AND THE AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY TEMPER THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
AIRMASS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY AS WELL WITH NO PRECIPITATION WORTH
MENTIONING. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER TOO WITH ONLY A FEW 25 MPH
BREEZES LINGERING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH AS
OUR STORM LIFTS AWAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD BRINGING MAINLY DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME MID AND HIGH MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...THE MOST CONSISTENT SOLUTION DURING THIS PERIOD HAS
BEEN A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH SETTING UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...WHILE KEEPING THE NORTHERN STREAM STORM TRACK AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS NORTH OF THE AREA. GFS IS THE MOST
CONSISTENT WITH THIS OVERALL SETUP THOUGH THE PERIOD WHILE ECMWF
BEGINS TO LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. FORECAST GIVES MORE WEIGHT GFS AND CONSISTENCY. H5
HEIGHTS WILL AVERAGE 590-594DM THROUGH THE PERIOD...H7 TEMPS FROM
AROUND 14C IN THE NE TO 18C IN THE SW. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO
LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER CENTRAL BASINS WITH 80S ACROSS
THE WESTERN VALLEYS. A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
ON FRIDAY WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FOUR
CORNERS HIGH ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING A FEW HIGH-BASED STORMS MOSTLY ALONG FAVORED MOUNTAIN/VALLEY
CONVERGENCE AREAS. THIS IS THE TIME OF YEAR THE SW MONSOON USUALLY MAKES
A SURGE NORTHWARD...55-PLUS DEWPOINTS AND ALL. HOWEVER...55F
DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA
AND ARIZONA WITH LITTLE DEWPOINT RECOVERY ACROSS
WYOMING...AVERAGING IN THE 30S. THUS...STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
BE MORE EFFICIENT WIND PRODUCERS WITH LITTLE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. A BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AFTER 16Z TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN WIND
CORRIDOR FROM KRKS TO KCPR AND NEAR KRIW...BUT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
AS ON MONDAY. EXPECT SKC FOR MOST AREAS FOR MOST OF TOMORROW. WIND
WILL DROP UNDER 10 KNOTS FOR ALL TAF SITES AFTER 02Z WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

REMAINING DRY TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING WHERE
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COULD DROP INTO THE LOW TEENS. HOWEVER
IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH LIGHTER WINDS...A FEW 25 MPH GUSTS
WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
NO WIDESPREAD DANGEROUS CONDITIONS WILL EXIST. WARMER ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND REMAINING DRY WITH LOW HUMIDITY SPREADING
FURTHER NORTH...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION OR HIGH WIND EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN




000
FXUS65 KRIW 280832
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
232 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED THE
STATE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AND LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING...AND WILL THEN TRACK EAST. COOL AIR ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 20 DEGREES COOLER IN SOME PLACES TODAY WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...HEIGHTS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE
DAY AND THE AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY TEMPER THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
AIRMASS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY AS WELL WITH NO PRECIPITATION WORTH
MENTIONING. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER TOO WITH ONLY A FEW 25 MPH
BREEZES LINGERING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH AS
OUR STORM LIFTS AWAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD BRINGING MAINLY DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME MID AND HIGH MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...THE MOST CONSISTENT SOLUTION DURING THIS PERIOD HAS
BEEN A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH SETTING UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...WHILE KEEPING THE NORTHERN STREAM STORM TRACK AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS NORTH OF THE AREA. GFS IS THE MOST
CONSISTENT WITH THIS OVERALL SETUP THOUGH THE PERIOD WHILE ECMWF
BEGINS TO LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. FORECAST GIVES MORE WEIGHT GFS AND CONSISTENCY. H5
HEIGHTS WILL AVERAGE 590-594DM THROUGH THE PERIOD...H7 TEMPS FROM
AROUND 14C IN THE NE TO 18C IN THE SW. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO
LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER CENTRAL BASINS WITH 80S ACROSS
THE WESTERN VALLEYS. A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
ON FRIDAY WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FOUR
CORNERS HIGH ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING A FEW HIGH-BASED STORMS MOSTLY ALONG FAVORED MOUNTAIN/VALLEY
CONVERGENCE AREAS. THIS IS THE TIME OF YEAR THE SW MONSOON USUALLY MAKES
A SURGE NORTHWARD...55-PLUS DEWPOINTS AND ALL. HOWEVER...55F
DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA
AND ARIZONA WITH LITTLE DEWPOINT RECOVERY ACROSS
WYOMING...AVERAGING IN THE 30S. THUS...STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
BE MORE EFFICIENT WIND PRODUCERS WITH LITTLE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. A BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AFTER 16Z TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN WIND
CORRIDOR FROM KRKS TO KCPR AND NEAR KRIW...BUT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
AS ON MONDAY. EXPECT SKC FOR MOST AREAS FOR MOST OF TOMORROW. WIND
WILL DROP UNDER 10 KNOTS FOR ALL TAF SITES AFTER 02Z WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

REMAINING DRY TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING WHERE
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COULD DROP INTO THE LOW TEENS. HOWEVER
IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH LIGHTER WINDS...A FEW 25 MPH GUSTS
WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
NO WIDESPREAD DANGEROUS CONDITIONS WILL EXIST. WARMER ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND REMAINING DRY WITH LOW HUMIDITY SPREADING
FURTHER NORTH...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION OR HIGH WIND EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN




000
FXUS65 KRIW 280832
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
232 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED THE
STATE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AND LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING...AND WILL THEN TRACK EAST. COOL AIR ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 20 DEGREES COOLER IN SOME PLACES TODAY WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...HEIGHTS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE
DAY AND THE AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY TEMPER THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
AIRMASS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY AS WELL WITH NO PRECIPITATION WORTH
MENTIONING. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER TOO WITH ONLY A FEW 25 MPH
BREEZES LINGERING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH AS
OUR STORM LIFTS AWAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD BRINGING MAINLY DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME MID AND HIGH MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...THE MOST CONSISTENT SOLUTION DURING THIS PERIOD HAS
BEEN A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH SETTING UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...WHILE KEEPING THE NORTHERN STREAM STORM TRACK AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS NORTH OF THE AREA. GFS IS THE MOST
CONSISTENT WITH THIS OVERALL SETUP THOUGH THE PERIOD WHILE ECMWF
BEGINS TO LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. FORECAST GIVES MORE WEIGHT GFS AND CONSISTENCY. H5
HEIGHTS WILL AVERAGE 590-594DM THROUGH THE PERIOD...H7 TEMPS FROM
AROUND 14C IN THE NE TO 18C IN THE SW. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO
LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER CENTRAL BASINS WITH 80S ACROSS
THE WESTERN VALLEYS. A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
ON FRIDAY WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FOUR
CORNERS HIGH ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING A FEW HIGH-BASED STORMS MOSTLY ALONG FAVORED MOUNTAIN/VALLEY
CONVERGENCE AREAS. THIS IS THE TIME OF YEAR THE SW MONSOON USUALLY MAKES
A SURGE NORTHWARD...55-PLUS DEWPOINTS AND ALL. HOWEVER...55F
DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA
AND ARIZONA WITH LITTLE DEWPOINT RECOVERY ACROSS
WYOMING...AVERAGING IN THE 30S. THUS...STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
BE MORE EFFICIENT WIND PRODUCERS WITH LITTLE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. A BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AFTER 16Z TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN WIND
CORRIDOR FROM KRKS TO KCPR AND NEAR KRIW...BUT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
AS ON MONDAY. EXPECT SKC FOR MOST AREAS FOR MOST OF TOMORROW. WIND
WILL DROP UNDER 10 KNOTS FOR ALL TAF SITES AFTER 02Z WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

REMAINING DRY TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING WHERE
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COULD DROP INTO THE LOW TEENS. HOWEVER
IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH LIGHTER WINDS...A FEW 25 MPH GUSTS
WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
NO WIDESPREAD DANGEROUS CONDITIONS WILL EXIST. WARMER ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND REMAINING DRY WITH LOW HUMIDITY SPREADING
FURTHER NORTH...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION OR HIGH WIND EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 280647
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1247 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

UPDATED THIS EVENINGS FORECAST TO ALLOW THE RED FLAG WARNING TO
EXPIRE ON TIME. ALSO UPDATED THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT SINCE TSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED A FEW HOURS LONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA. A FEW OF
THESE TSTORMS WERE SEVERE WITH UP TO GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED
IN SCOTTSBLUFF. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS OVER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...AND EXPECT THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS
TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY
AND COOL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONE MORE HOT DAY FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
TODAY...THEN COOLER READINGS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE VERY WARM AIR TODAY. IN FACT
WIND SPEEDS WILL APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH
OF CARBON COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR GREATER. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE VERY LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES...AND WITH THAT COMES AN EXTREME RISK FOR RAPIDLY SPREADING
WILDFIRE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING DUE TO THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

SWITCHING FROM FIRE DANGER IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HOT AND HUMID
AIR INTO THE PANHANDLE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP BUT A PUNCH OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LIKELY BE THE TRIGGER
WHICH SETS OFF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ANYWHERE FROM ALONG THE NEBRASKA/WYOMING BORDER TO JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE
A DEVELOPING DRY LINE/STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OCCURS.
BEST GUESS AT THIS TIME IS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF QUICKLY BECOMING SEVERE. 00Z NAM SHOWING
UPWARDS OF 4000J/KG SB CAPE AT 21Z TODAY FROM AROUND CHADRON TO
SIDNEY. SHOULD THIS BE THE CASE THEN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING.

COOLER DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH 70S INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN
PLACE. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS HOW DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST NAEFS/GEFS AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING US
REMAINING IN THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL YIELD TO MOSTLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY GETTING
SUPPRESSED TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROF IN
NORTHERN CANADA BEGINS TO EDGE SOUTH. THIS WILL PUT WYOMING ON THE
SOUTH EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES WHICH MAY FAVOR US IN A BIT MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH THE
WEEK EXCEPT IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE THEY COULD REACH THE
LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT...THEN GUSTING AGAIN AFTER
DAYBREAK TODAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY BUT
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL MAKE FOR
MARGINAL FIRE CONDITIONS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...ZF/TJT




000
FXUS65 KCYS 280647
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1247 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

UPDATED THIS EVENINGS FORECAST TO ALLOW THE RED FLAG WARNING TO
EXPIRE ON TIME. ALSO UPDATED THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT SINCE TSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED A FEW HOURS LONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA. A FEW OF
THESE TSTORMS WERE SEVERE WITH UP TO GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED
IN SCOTTSBLUFF. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS OVER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...AND EXPECT THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS
TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY
AND COOL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONE MORE HOT DAY FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
TODAY...THEN COOLER READINGS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE VERY WARM AIR TODAY. IN FACT
WIND SPEEDS WILL APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH
OF CARBON COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR GREATER. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE VERY LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES...AND WITH THAT COMES AN EXTREME RISK FOR RAPIDLY SPREADING
WILDFIRE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING DUE TO THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

SWITCHING FROM FIRE DANGER IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HOT AND HUMID
AIR INTO THE PANHANDLE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP BUT A PUNCH OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LIKELY BE THE TRIGGER
WHICH SETS OFF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ANYWHERE FROM ALONG THE NEBRASKA/WYOMING BORDER TO JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE
A DEVELOPING DRY LINE/STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OCCURS.
BEST GUESS AT THIS TIME IS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF QUICKLY BECOMING SEVERE. 00Z NAM SHOWING
UPWARDS OF 4000J/KG SB CAPE AT 21Z TODAY FROM AROUND CHADRON TO
SIDNEY. SHOULD THIS BE THE CASE THEN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING.

COOLER DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH 70S INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN
PLACE. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS HOW DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST NAEFS/GEFS AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING US
REMAINING IN THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL YIELD TO MOSTLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY GETTING
SUPPRESSED TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROF IN
NORTHERN CANADA BEGINS TO EDGE SOUTH. THIS WILL PUT WYOMING ON THE
SOUTH EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES WHICH MAY FAVOR US IN A BIT MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH THE
WEEK EXCEPT IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE THEY COULD REACH THE
LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT...THEN GUSTING AGAIN AFTER
DAYBREAK TODAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY BUT
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL MAKE FOR
MARGINAL FIRE CONDITIONS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...ZF/TJT



000
FXUS65 KCYS 280647
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1247 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

UPDATED THIS EVENINGS FORECAST TO ALLOW THE RED FLAG WARNING TO
EXPIRE ON TIME. ALSO UPDATED THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT SINCE TSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED A FEW HOURS LONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA. A FEW OF
THESE TSTORMS WERE SEVERE WITH UP TO GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED
IN SCOTTSBLUFF. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS OVER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...AND EXPECT THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS
TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY
AND COOL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONE MORE HOT DAY FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
TODAY...THEN COOLER READINGS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE VERY WARM AIR TODAY. IN FACT
WIND SPEEDS WILL APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH
OF CARBON COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR GREATER. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE VERY LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES...AND WITH THAT COMES AN EXTREME RISK FOR RAPIDLY SPREADING
WILDFIRE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING DUE TO THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

SWITCHING FROM FIRE DANGER IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HOT AND HUMID
AIR INTO THE PANHANDLE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP BUT A PUNCH OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LIKELY BE THE TRIGGER
WHICH SETS OFF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ANYWHERE FROM ALONG THE NEBRASKA/WYOMING BORDER TO JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE
A DEVELOPING DRY LINE/STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OCCURS.
BEST GUESS AT THIS TIME IS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF QUICKLY BECOMING SEVERE. 00Z NAM SHOWING
UPWARDS OF 4000J/KG SB CAPE AT 21Z TODAY FROM AROUND CHADRON TO
SIDNEY. SHOULD THIS BE THE CASE THEN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING.

COOLER DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH 70S INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN
PLACE. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS HOW DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST NAEFS/GEFS AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING US
REMAINING IN THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL YIELD TO MOSTLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY GETTING
SUPPRESSED TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROF IN
NORTHERN CANADA BEGINS TO EDGE SOUTH. THIS WILL PUT WYOMING ON THE
SOUTH EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES WHICH MAY FAVOR US IN A BIT MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH THE
WEEK EXCEPT IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE THEY COULD REACH THE
LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT...THEN GUSTING AGAIN AFTER
DAYBREAK TODAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY BUT
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL MAKE FOR
MARGINAL FIRE CONDITIONS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...ZF/TJT



000
FXUS65 KCYS 280647
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1247 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

UPDATED THIS EVENINGS FORECAST TO ALLOW THE RED FLAG WARNING TO
EXPIRE ON TIME. ALSO UPDATED THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT SINCE TSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED A FEW HOURS LONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA. A FEW OF
THESE TSTORMS WERE SEVERE WITH UP TO GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED
IN SCOTTSBLUFF. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS OVER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...AND EXPECT THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS
TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY
AND COOL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONE MORE HOT DAY FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
TODAY...THEN COOLER READINGS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE VERY WARM AIR TODAY. IN FACT
WIND SPEEDS WILL APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH
OF CARBON COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR GREATER. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE VERY LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES...AND WITH THAT COMES AN EXTREME RISK FOR RAPIDLY SPREADING
WILDFIRE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING DUE TO THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

SWITCHING FROM FIRE DANGER IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HOT AND HUMID
AIR INTO THE PANHANDLE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP BUT A PUNCH OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LIKELY BE THE TRIGGER
WHICH SETS OFF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ANYWHERE FROM ALONG THE NEBRASKA/WYOMING BORDER TO JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE
A DEVELOPING DRY LINE/STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OCCURS.
BEST GUESS AT THIS TIME IS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF QUICKLY BECOMING SEVERE. 00Z NAM SHOWING
UPWARDS OF 4000J/KG SB CAPE AT 21Z TODAY FROM AROUND CHADRON TO
SIDNEY. SHOULD THIS BE THE CASE THEN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING.

COOLER DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH 70S INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN
PLACE. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS HOW DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST NAEFS/GEFS AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING US
REMAINING IN THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL YIELD TO MOSTLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY GETTING
SUPPRESSED TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROF IN
NORTHERN CANADA BEGINS TO EDGE SOUTH. THIS WILL PUT WYOMING ON THE
SOUTH EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES WHICH MAY FAVOR US IN A BIT MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH THE
WEEK EXCEPT IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE THEY COULD REACH THE
LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT...THEN GUSTING AGAIN AFTER
DAYBREAK TODAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY BUT
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL MAKE FOR
MARGINAL FIRE CONDITIONS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...ZF/TJT




000
FXUS65 KRIW 280447
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1046 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

A WEAK STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE DRAPED EAST TO
WEST ALONG THE OWL CREEK MTNS AND ALONG THE JOHNSON/NATRONA COUNTY
LINE. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 40S AND 50S AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THEY ARE ONLY IN THE 20S. MEANWHILE A STRONG
PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS PLOWING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS FAR WESTERN WY
AND WILL EVENTUALLY  THE AIRMASS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL WY THIS EVENING AS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF WYOMING
EXPERIENCES A SFC FRONTAL OCCLUSION. AS THIS PACIFIC FRONT
PROGRESSES EAST...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS
ACROSS NORTHERN WY IN THE AREA OF HIGHER DEW POINTS AND RESULTANT
HIGHER CAPES. SPC HAS THIS AREA UNDER MARGINAL SO LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE A POSSIBILITY IN THESE AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY THIS EVENING. SO FAR...SMALL HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED AT
MAMMOTH AND DUBOIS AND AS FAR SOUTH AS CASPER.

THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS THE ON GOING RED FLAG WARNING FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL...EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WHERE MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
THE LOW TEENS HAVE BEEN COMMON ALONG WITH WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH
AS 35 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WITH EVEN STRONGER SHIFTING WINDS ANTICIPATED WITH THE
FROPA. WITH 3 HOURLY SFC PRESSURE RISES ANTICIPATED TO BE UP TO
12MB...MANY AREAS COULD SEE POST FRONTAL WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50
MPH. IN ADDITION...A HAINES INDEX OF SIX IS IN PLACE IN THESE
AREAS...NOT TO MENTION THE SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A DRY LIGHTNING
STRIKE. WILL LET THE RED FLAG RIDE THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 279...280...281...283...285 AND 300.

THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS BEING SLUNG BY A VIGOROUS
EASTBOUND SHORTWAVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH HAS BEEN TRACKING
EAST ACROSS MONTANA. THIS TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF OVER EAST CENTRAL
MONTANA BY 06Z TONIGHT AND BECOME ALMOST VERTICALLY STACKED. THERE
IS PLENTY OF COLD AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WRAPPING AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW WITH H7 TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP BETWEEN -2 AND
-3C IN NW WYOMING LATER TONIGHT. IN FACT...TEMPS ARE ALREADY ONLY
IN THE 50S IN THE FAR WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THESE COLD H7
TEMPS...SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP TO BETWEEN 7K AND 7500 FEET IN
YELLOWSTONE PARK LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE UP
TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW COULD FALL JUST BEFORE THE WX SYSTEM PULLS
OUT TO THE EAST AND THE RESULTANT AREA OF PRECIP SHRINKS. AREAS
LIKE TOGWOTEE PASS COULD SEE A PERIOD OF SNOWFALL AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH GRANITE AND POWDER RIVER PASSES TO FOLLOW. THE
SOUTHERN WINDS COULD SEE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT WET SNOW
ABOVE 8500 FEET IN THE WEE HOURS TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE.

FOR TUESDAY...A COOLER BUT PLEASANTLY MILD AND SUNNY DAY IS IN
STORE. WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE MONTANA WEATHER
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS QUIET SOLUTION FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING.

CONDITIONS BEGIN TO CHANGE SUNDAY MORNING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE STATE. THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERATE SOME
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN WYOMING. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY... BUT WILL LEAVE FORECAST TRENDING TOWARDS THE SOLUTION
FOR LOW COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF INDICATES A
BETTER PUSH OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ON MONDAY WITH EXPECTED
ZONAL FLOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THIS SOLUTION. THE GFS IS NOT
AS AGGRESSIVE...WITH WEAKER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. UNDER ITS
SCENARIO...SHOWER COVERAGE WOULD CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED TO
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS.

REGARDLESS...EXPECT GENERALLY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. A BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
AFTER 16Z TUESDAY FROM KRKS TO KCPR AND NEAR KRIW...BUT WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG AS ON MONDAY. EXPECT SKC FOR MOST AREAS FOR MOST OF
TOMORROW. WIND WILL DROP UNDER 10 KNOTS FOR ALL TAF SITES AFTER 02Z
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

JUST ABOUT EVERY ELEMENT WORTHY OF A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE
PRESENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND OVER 35 MPH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE MORE
EXPOSED AND WIND PRONE AREAS...TO LOW HUMIDITY...TO DRY
THUNDERSTORMS AND A DRY COLD FRONT. AREAS EXPECTED TO BE MOST
AFFECTED WILL BE CASPER DISPATCH...SOUTHERN CODY DISPATCH...AND
RAWLINS DISPATCH AS THEY WILL HAVE THE MOST TIME AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT IN THE HOT AND DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW. MOST OF THE WET
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE IN TETON DISPATCH WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN CASPER AND CODY DISPATCH WITH
HAZARDS THAT RANGE FROM LARGE HAIL TO A TORNADO...WITH DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
IT WILL BE QUITE A BIT CALMER AND COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
TUESDAY BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE STATE...WINDS WILL CALMER BUT A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...BRANHAM
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON




000
FXUS65 KRIW 280447
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1046 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

A WEAK STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE DRAPED EAST TO
WEST ALONG THE OWL CREEK MTNS AND ALONG THE JOHNSON/NATRONA COUNTY
LINE. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 40S AND 50S AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THEY ARE ONLY IN THE 20S. MEANWHILE A STRONG
PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS PLOWING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS FAR WESTERN WY
AND WILL EVENTUALLY  THE AIRMASS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL WY THIS EVENING AS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF WYOMING
EXPERIENCES A SFC FRONTAL OCCLUSION. AS THIS PACIFIC FRONT
PROGRESSES EAST...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS
ACROSS NORTHERN WY IN THE AREA OF HIGHER DEW POINTS AND RESULTANT
HIGHER CAPES. SPC HAS THIS AREA UNDER MARGINAL SO LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE A POSSIBILITY IN THESE AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY THIS EVENING. SO FAR...SMALL HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED AT
MAMMOTH AND DUBOIS AND AS FAR SOUTH AS CASPER.

THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS THE ON GOING RED FLAG WARNING FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL...EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WHERE MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
THE LOW TEENS HAVE BEEN COMMON ALONG WITH WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH
AS 35 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WITH EVEN STRONGER SHIFTING WINDS ANTICIPATED WITH THE
FROPA. WITH 3 HOURLY SFC PRESSURE RISES ANTICIPATED TO BE UP TO
12MB...MANY AREAS COULD SEE POST FRONTAL WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50
MPH. IN ADDITION...A HAINES INDEX OF SIX IS IN PLACE IN THESE
AREAS...NOT TO MENTION THE SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A DRY LIGHTNING
STRIKE. WILL LET THE RED FLAG RIDE THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 279...280...281...283...285 AND 300.

THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS BEING SLUNG BY A VIGOROUS
EASTBOUND SHORTWAVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH HAS BEEN TRACKING
EAST ACROSS MONTANA. THIS TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF OVER EAST CENTRAL
MONTANA BY 06Z TONIGHT AND BECOME ALMOST VERTICALLY STACKED. THERE
IS PLENTY OF COLD AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WRAPPING AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW WITH H7 TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP BETWEEN -2 AND
-3C IN NW WYOMING LATER TONIGHT. IN FACT...TEMPS ARE ALREADY ONLY
IN THE 50S IN THE FAR WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THESE COLD H7
TEMPS...SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP TO BETWEEN 7K AND 7500 FEET IN
YELLOWSTONE PARK LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE UP
TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW COULD FALL JUST BEFORE THE WX SYSTEM PULLS
OUT TO THE EAST AND THE RESULTANT AREA OF PRECIP SHRINKS. AREAS
LIKE TOGWOTEE PASS COULD SEE A PERIOD OF SNOWFALL AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH GRANITE AND POWDER RIVER PASSES TO FOLLOW. THE
SOUTHERN WINDS COULD SEE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT WET SNOW
ABOVE 8500 FEET IN THE WEE HOURS TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE.

FOR TUESDAY...A COOLER BUT PLEASANTLY MILD AND SUNNY DAY IS IN
STORE. WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE MONTANA WEATHER
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS QUIET SOLUTION FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING.

CONDITIONS BEGIN TO CHANGE SUNDAY MORNING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE STATE. THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERATE SOME
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN WYOMING. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY... BUT WILL LEAVE FORECAST TRENDING TOWARDS THE SOLUTION
FOR LOW COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF INDICATES A
BETTER PUSH OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ON MONDAY WITH EXPECTED
ZONAL FLOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THIS SOLUTION. THE GFS IS NOT
AS AGGRESSIVE...WITH WEAKER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. UNDER ITS
SCENARIO...SHOWER COVERAGE WOULD CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED TO
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS.

REGARDLESS...EXPECT GENERALLY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. A BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
AFTER 16Z TUESDAY FROM KRKS TO KCPR AND NEAR KRIW...BUT WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG AS ON MONDAY. EXPECT SKC FOR MOST AREAS FOR MOST OF
TOMORROW. WIND WILL DROP UNDER 10 KNOTS FOR ALL TAF SITES AFTER 02Z
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

JUST ABOUT EVERY ELEMENT WORTHY OF A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE
PRESENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND OVER 35 MPH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE MORE
EXPOSED AND WIND PRONE AREAS...TO LOW HUMIDITY...TO DRY
THUNDERSTORMS AND A DRY COLD FRONT. AREAS EXPECTED TO BE MOST
AFFECTED WILL BE CASPER DISPATCH...SOUTHERN CODY DISPATCH...AND
RAWLINS DISPATCH AS THEY WILL HAVE THE MOST TIME AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT IN THE HOT AND DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW. MOST OF THE WET
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE IN TETON DISPATCH WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN CASPER AND CODY DISPATCH WITH
HAZARDS THAT RANGE FROM LARGE HAIL TO A TORNADO...WITH DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
IT WILL BE QUITE A BIT CALMER AND COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
TUESDAY BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE STATE...WINDS WILL CALMER BUT A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...BRANHAM
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON




000
FXUS65 KRIW 280447
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1046 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

A WEAK STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE DRAPED EAST TO
WEST ALONG THE OWL CREEK MTNS AND ALONG THE JOHNSON/NATRONA COUNTY
LINE. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 40S AND 50S AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THEY ARE ONLY IN THE 20S. MEANWHILE A STRONG
PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS PLOWING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS FAR WESTERN WY
AND WILL EVENTUALLY  THE AIRMASS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL WY THIS EVENING AS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF WYOMING
EXPERIENCES A SFC FRONTAL OCCLUSION. AS THIS PACIFIC FRONT
PROGRESSES EAST...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS
ACROSS NORTHERN WY IN THE AREA OF HIGHER DEW POINTS AND RESULTANT
HIGHER CAPES. SPC HAS THIS AREA UNDER MARGINAL SO LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE A POSSIBILITY IN THESE AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY THIS EVENING. SO FAR...SMALL HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED AT
MAMMOTH AND DUBOIS AND AS FAR SOUTH AS CASPER.

THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS THE ON GOING RED FLAG WARNING FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL...EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WHERE MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
THE LOW TEENS HAVE BEEN COMMON ALONG WITH WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH
AS 35 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WITH EVEN STRONGER SHIFTING WINDS ANTICIPATED WITH THE
FROPA. WITH 3 HOURLY SFC PRESSURE RISES ANTICIPATED TO BE UP TO
12MB...MANY AREAS COULD SEE POST FRONTAL WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50
MPH. IN ADDITION...A HAINES INDEX OF SIX IS IN PLACE IN THESE
AREAS...NOT TO MENTION THE SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A DRY LIGHTNING
STRIKE. WILL LET THE RED FLAG RIDE THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 279...280...281...283...285 AND 300.

THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS BEING SLUNG BY A VIGOROUS
EASTBOUND SHORTWAVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH HAS BEEN TRACKING
EAST ACROSS MONTANA. THIS TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF OVER EAST CENTRAL
MONTANA BY 06Z TONIGHT AND BECOME ALMOST VERTICALLY STACKED. THERE
IS PLENTY OF COLD AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WRAPPING AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW WITH H7 TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP BETWEEN -2 AND
-3C IN NW WYOMING LATER TONIGHT. IN FACT...TEMPS ARE ALREADY ONLY
IN THE 50S IN THE FAR WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THESE COLD H7
TEMPS...SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP TO BETWEEN 7K AND 7500 FEET IN
YELLOWSTONE PARK LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE UP
TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW COULD FALL JUST BEFORE THE WX SYSTEM PULLS
OUT TO THE EAST AND THE RESULTANT AREA OF PRECIP SHRINKS. AREAS
LIKE TOGWOTEE PASS COULD SEE A PERIOD OF SNOWFALL AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH GRANITE AND POWDER RIVER PASSES TO FOLLOW. THE
SOUTHERN WINDS COULD SEE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT WET SNOW
ABOVE 8500 FEET IN THE WEE HOURS TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE.

FOR TUESDAY...A COOLER BUT PLEASANTLY MILD AND SUNNY DAY IS IN
STORE. WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE MONTANA WEATHER
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS QUIET SOLUTION FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING.

CONDITIONS BEGIN TO CHANGE SUNDAY MORNING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE STATE. THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERATE SOME
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN WYOMING. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY... BUT WILL LEAVE FORECAST TRENDING TOWARDS THE SOLUTION
FOR LOW COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF INDICATES A
BETTER PUSH OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ON MONDAY WITH EXPECTED
ZONAL FLOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THIS SOLUTION. THE GFS IS NOT
AS AGGRESSIVE...WITH WEAKER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. UNDER ITS
SCENARIO...SHOWER COVERAGE WOULD CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED TO
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS.

REGARDLESS...EXPECT GENERALLY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. A BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
AFTER 16Z TUESDAY FROM KRKS TO KCPR AND NEAR KRIW...BUT WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG AS ON MONDAY. EXPECT SKC FOR MOST AREAS FOR MOST OF
TOMORROW. WIND WILL DROP UNDER 10 KNOTS FOR ALL TAF SITES AFTER 02Z
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

JUST ABOUT EVERY ELEMENT WORTHY OF A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE
PRESENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND OVER 35 MPH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE MORE
EXPOSED AND WIND PRONE AREAS...TO LOW HUMIDITY...TO DRY
THUNDERSTORMS AND A DRY COLD FRONT. AREAS EXPECTED TO BE MOST
AFFECTED WILL BE CASPER DISPATCH...SOUTHERN CODY DISPATCH...AND
RAWLINS DISPATCH AS THEY WILL HAVE THE MOST TIME AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT IN THE HOT AND DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW. MOST OF THE WET
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE IN TETON DISPATCH WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN CASPER AND CODY DISPATCH WITH
HAZARDS THAT RANGE FROM LARGE HAIL TO A TORNADO...WITH DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
IT WILL BE QUITE A BIT CALMER AND COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
TUESDAY BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE STATE...WINDS WILL CALMER BUT A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...BRANHAM
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON




000
FXUS65 KRIW 280447
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1046 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

A WEAK STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE DRAPED EAST TO
WEST ALONG THE OWL CREEK MTNS AND ALONG THE JOHNSON/NATRONA COUNTY
LINE. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 40S AND 50S AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THEY ARE ONLY IN THE 20S. MEANWHILE A STRONG
PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS PLOWING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS FAR WESTERN WY
AND WILL EVENTUALLY  THE AIRMASS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL WY THIS EVENING AS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF WYOMING
EXPERIENCES A SFC FRONTAL OCCLUSION. AS THIS PACIFIC FRONT
PROGRESSES EAST...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS
ACROSS NORTHERN WY IN THE AREA OF HIGHER DEW POINTS AND RESULTANT
HIGHER CAPES. SPC HAS THIS AREA UNDER MARGINAL SO LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE A POSSIBILITY IN THESE AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY THIS EVENING. SO FAR...SMALL HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED AT
MAMMOTH AND DUBOIS AND AS FAR SOUTH AS CASPER.

THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS THE ON GOING RED FLAG WARNING FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL...EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WHERE MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
THE LOW TEENS HAVE BEEN COMMON ALONG WITH WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH
AS 35 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WITH EVEN STRONGER SHIFTING WINDS ANTICIPATED WITH THE
FROPA. WITH 3 HOURLY SFC PRESSURE RISES ANTICIPATED TO BE UP TO
12MB...MANY AREAS COULD SEE POST FRONTAL WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50
MPH. IN ADDITION...A HAINES INDEX OF SIX IS IN PLACE IN THESE
AREAS...NOT TO MENTION THE SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A DRY LIGHTNING
STRIKE. WILL LET THE RED FLAG RIDE THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 279...280...281...283...285 AND 300.

THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS BEING SLUNG BY A VIGOROUS
EASTBOUND SHORTWAVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH HAS BEEN TRACKING
EAST ACROSS MONTANA. THIS TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF OVER EAST CENTRAL
MONTANA BY 06Z TONIGHT AND BECOME ALMOST VERTICALLY STACKED. THERE
IS PLENTY OF COLD AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WRAPPING AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW WITH H7 TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP BETWEEN -2 AND
-3C IN NW WYOMING LATER TONIGHT. IN FACT...TEMPS ARE ALREADY ONLY
IN THE 50S IN THE FAR WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THESE COLD H7
TEMPS...SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP TO BETWEEN 7K AND 7500 FEET IN
YELLOWSTONE PARK LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE UP
TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW COULD FALL JUST BEFORE THE WX SYSTEM PULLS
OUT TO THE EAST AND THE RESULTANT AREA OF PRECIP SHRINKS. AREAS
LIKE TOGWOTEE PASS COULD SEE A PERIOD OF SNOWFALL AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH GRANITE AND POWDER RIVER PASSES TO FOLLOW. THE
SOUTHERN WINDS COULD SEE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT WET SNOW
ABOVE 8500 FEET IN THE WEE HOURS TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE.

FOR TUESDAY...A COOLER BUT PLEASANTLY MILD AND SUNNY DAY IS IN
STORE. WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE MONTANA WEATHER
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS QUIET SOLUTION FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING.

CONDITIONS BEGIN TO CHANGE SUNDAY MORNING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE STATE. THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERATE SOME
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN WYOMING. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY... BUT WILL LEAVE FORECAST TRENDING TOWARDS THE SOLUTION
FOR LOW COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF INDICATES A
BETTER PUSH OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ON MONDAY WITH EXPECTED
ZONAL FLOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THIS SOLUTION. THE GFS IS NOT
AS AGGRESSIVE...WITH WEAKER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. UNDER ITS
SCENARIO...SHOWER COVERAGE WOULD CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED TO
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS.

REGARDLESS...EXPECT GENERALLY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. A BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
AFTER 16Z TUESDAY FROM KRKS TO KCPR AND NEAR KRIW...BUT WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG AS ON MONDAY. EXPECT SKC FOR MOST AREAS FOR MOST OF
TOMORROW. WIND WILL DROP UNDER 10 KNOTS FOR ALL TAF SITES AFTER 02Z
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

JUST ABOUT EVERY ELEMENT WORTHY OF A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE
PRESENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND OVER 35 MPH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE MORE
EXPOSED AND WIND PRONE AREAS...TO LOW HUMIDITY...TO DRY
THUNDERSTORMS AND A DRY COLD FRONT. AREAS EXPECTED TO BE MOST
AFFECTED WILL BE CASPER DISPATCH...SOUTHERN CODY DISPATCH...AND
RAWLINS DISPATCH AS THEY WILL HAVE THE MOST TIME AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT IN THE HOT AND DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW. MOST OF THE WET
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE IN TETON DISPATCH WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN CASPER AND CODY DISPATCH WITH
HAZARDS THAT RANGE FROM LARGE HAIL TO A TORNADO...WITH DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
IT WILL BE QUITE A BIT CALMER AND COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
TUESDAY BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE STATE...WINDS WILL CALMER BUT A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...BRANHAM
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON




000
FXUS65 KRIW 280447
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1046 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

A WEAK STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE DRAPED EAST TO
WEST ALONG THE OWL CREEK MTNS AND ALONG THE JOHNSON/NATRONA COUNTY
LINE. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 40S AND 50S AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THEY ARE ONLY IN THE 20S. MEANWHILE A STRONG
PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS PLOWING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS FAR WESTERN WY
AND WILL EVENTUALLY  THE AIRMASS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL WY THIS EVENING AS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF WYOMING
EXPERIENCES A SFC FRONTAL OCCLUSION. AS THIS PACIFIC FRONT
PROGRESSES EAST...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS
ACROSS NORTHERN WY IN THE AREA OF HIGHER DEW POINTS AND RESULTANT
HIGHER CAPES. SPC HAS THIS AREA UNDER MARGINAL SO LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE A POSSIBILITY IN THESE AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY THIS EVENING. SO FAR...SMALL HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED AT
MAMMOTH AND DUBOIS AND AS FAR SOUTH AS CASPER.

THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS THE ON GOING RED FLAG WARNING FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL...EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WHERE MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
THE LOW TEENS HAVE BEEN COMMON ALONG WITH WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH
AS 35 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WITH EVEN STRONGER SHIFTING WINDS ANTICIPATED WITH THE
FROPA. WITH 3 HOURLY SFC PRESSURE RISES ANTICIPATED TO BE UP TO
12MB...MANY AREAS COULD SEE POST FRONTAL WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50
MPH. IN ADDITION...A HAINES INDEX OF SIX IS IN PLACE IN THESE
AREAS...NOT TO MENTION THE SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A DRY LIGHTNING
STRIKE. WILL LET THE RED FLAG RIDE THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 279...280...281...283...285 AND 300.

THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS BEING SLUNG BY A VIGOROUS
EASTBOUND SHORTWAVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH HAS BEEN TRACKING
EAST ACROSS MONTANA. THIS TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF OVER EAST CENTRAL
MONTANA BY 06Z TONIGHT AND BECOME ALMOST VERTICALLY STACKED. THERE
IS PLENTY OF COLD AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WRAPPING AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW WITH H7 TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP BETWEEN -2 AND
-3C IN NW WYOMING LATER TONIGHT. IN FACT...TEMPS ARE ALREADY ONLY
IN THE 50S IN THE FAR WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THESE COLD H7
TEMPS...SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP TO BETWEEN 7K AND 7500 FEET IN
YELLOWSTONE PARK LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE UP
TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW COULD FALL JUST BEFORE THE WX SYSTEM PULLS
OUT TO THE EAST AND THE RESULTANT AREA OF PRECIP SHRINKS. AREAS
LIKE TOGWOTEE PASS COULD SEE A PERIOD OF SNOWFALL AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH GRANITE AND POWDER RIVER PASSES TO FOLLOW. THE
SOUTHERN WINDS COULD SEE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT WET SNOW
ABOVE 8500 FEET IN THE WEE HOURS TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE.

FOR TUESDAY...A COOLER BUT PLEASANTLY MILD AND SUNNY DAY IS IN
STORE. WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE MONTANA WEATHER
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS QUIET SOLUTION FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING.

CONDITIONS BEGIN TO CHANGE SUNDAY MORNING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE STATE. THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERATE SOME
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN WYOMING. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY... BUT WILL LEAVE FORECAST TRENDING TOWARDS THE SOLUTION
FOR LOW COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF INDICATES A
BETTER PUSH OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ON MONDAY WITH EXPECTED
ZONAL FLOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THIS SOLUTION. THE GFS IS NOT
AS AGGRESSIVE...WITH WEAKER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. UNDER ITS
SCENARIO...SHOWER COVERAGE WOULD CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED TO
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS.

REGARDLESS...EXPECT GENERALLY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. A BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
AFTER 16Z TUESDAY FROM KRKS TO KCPR AND NEAR KRIW...BUT WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG AS ON MONDAY. EXPECT SKC FOR MOST AREAS FOR MOST OF
TOMORROW. WIND WILL DROP UNDER 10 KNOTS FOR ALL TAF SITES AFTER 02Z
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

JUST ABOUT EVERY ELEMENT WORTHY OF A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE
PRESENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND OVER 35 MPH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE MORE
EXPOSED AND WIND PRONE AREAS...TO LOW HUMIDITY...TO DRY
THUNDERSTORMS AND A DRY COLD FRONT. AREAS EXPECTED TO BE MOST
AFFECTED WILL BE CASPER DISPATCH...SOUTHERN CODY DISPATCH...AND
RAWLINS DISPATCH AS THEY WILL HAVE THE MOST TIME AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT IN THE HOT AND DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW. MOST OF THE WET
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE IN TETON DISPATCH WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN CASPER AND CODY DISPATCH WITH
HAZARDS THAT RANGE FROM LARGE HAIL TO A TORNADO...WITH DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
IT WILL BE QUITE A BIT CALMER AND COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
TUESDAY BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE STATE...WINDS WILL CALMER BUT A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...BRANHAM
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON



000
FXUS63 KUNR 280426
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1026 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONVECTION PUSHING THROUGH SCNTRL SD EXPECTED TO EXIT OUR CWFA
WELL BEFORE DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS INTENSE UPPER LOW OVER NRN ID WITH STRONG SHORT
WAVE EJECTING NEWD THRU WY. AT THE SFC...LOW CENTER IS OVER SERN
MT WITH TROF EXTENDING SWD THROUGH ERN WY...AND CDFNT LAGGING
BEHIND ABOUT 100NM. ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING ACRS ERN
WY AND IS BEGINNING TO ROOT IN THE BL EARLY THIS AFTN.

THIS AFTN/TONIGHT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE FIRING ALONG SFC
TROF AS IT ADVANCES FROM ERN WY INTO WRN SD. CAP IS STILL IN PLACE
ACRS THE WRN SD PLAINS...BUT WILL ERODE AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES WHERE
MLCAPE IN THE 1000-2000J/KG IS EXPECTED AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
RANGES FROM 30-50KTS. WHILE A FEW STRONG TO SVR STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN NERN WY...THE BEST CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS RESIDE OVER
WRN SD AND ESPECIALLY INTO NWRN SD. ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWFA THIS EVENING AND END IN MOST PLACES BY
MIDNIGHT. AS THE CDFNT SURGES INTO THE CWFA LATE THIS
AFTN/EVE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS GIVEN 4-8MB/3HR PRES
RISES. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY RISE INTO THE ADVISORY CATEGORY WHEN THE
CDFNT FIRST PUSHES THROUGH...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST VERY
LONG SO WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY...DRY AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL WORK ACRS THE CWFA WITH
STACKED UPPER LOW TRACKING EWD ALONG THE CNDN/ND BORDER. 850MB
WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 40-50KT RANGE ACRS NWRN SD...WITH
GOOD MIXING RESULTING IN ADVISORY/WARNING TYPE WINDS AND WILL KEEP
THE HIGH WIND WATCH IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S...GENERALLY 60S IN THE BLKHLS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...RESULTING IN
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A COUPLE WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT SCNTRL SD WELL BEFORE DAYBREAK. VFR
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTY NW
WINDS DEVELOPING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 7 AM MDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-073.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...13




000
FXUS63 KUNR 280426
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1026 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONVECTION PUSHING THROUGH SCNTRL SD EXPECTED TO EXIT OUR CWFA
WELL BEFORE DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS INTENSE UPPER LOW OVER NRN ID WITH STRONG SHORT
WAVE EJECTING NEWD THRU WY. AT THE SFC...LOW CENTER IS OVER SERN
MT WITH TROF EXTENDING SWD THROUGH ERN WY...AND CDFNT LAGGING
BEHIND ABOUT 100NM. ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING ACRS ERN
WY AND IS BEGINNING TO ROOT IN THE BL EARLY THIS AFTN.

THIS AFTN/TONIGHT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE FIRING ALONG SFC
TROF AS IT ADVANCES FROM ERN WY INTO WRN SD. CAP IS STILL IN PLACE
ACRS THE WRN SD PLAINS...BUT WILL ERODE AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES WHERE
MLCAPE IN THE 1000-2000J/KG IS EXPECTED AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
RANGES FROM 30-50KTS. WHILE A FEW STRONG TO SVR STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN NERN WY...THE BEST CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS RESIDE OVER
WRN SD AND ESPECIALLY INTO NWRN SD. ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWFA THIS EVENING AND END IN MOST PLACES BY
MIDNIGHT. AS THE CDFNT SURGES INTO THE CWFA LATE THIS
AFTN/EVE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS GIVEN 4-8MB/3HR PRES
RISES. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY RISE INTO THE ADVISORY CATEGORY WHEN THE
CDFNT FIRST PUSHES THROUGH...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST VERY
LONG SO WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY...DRY AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL WORK ACRS THE CWFA WITH
STACKED UPPER LOW TRACKING EWD ALONG THE CNDN/ND BORDER. 850MB
WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 40-50KT RANGE ACRS NWRN SD...WITH
GOOD MIXING RESULTING IN ADVISORY/WARNING TYPE WINDS AND WILL KEEP
THE HIGH WIND WATCH IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S...GENERALLY 60S IN THE BLKHLS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...RESULTING IN
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A COUPLE WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT SCNTRL SD WELL BEFORE DAYBREAK. VFR
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTY NW
WINDS DEVELOPING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 7 AM MDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-073.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...13



000
FXUS65 KCYS 280220
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
820 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

UPDATED THIS EVENINGS FORECAST TO ALLOW THE RED FLAG WARNING TO
EXPIRE ON TIME. ALSO UPDATED THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT SINCE TSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED A FEW HOURS LONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA. A FEW OF
THESE TSTORMS WERE SEVERE WITH UP TO GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED
IN SCOTTSBLUFF. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS OVER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...AND EXPECT THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS
TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY
AND COOL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONE MORE HOT DAY FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
TODAY...THEN COOLER READINGS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE VERY WARM AIR TODAY. IN FACT
WIND SPEEDS WILL APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH
OF CARBON COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR GREATER. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE VERY LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES...AND WITH THAT COMES AN EXTREME RISK FOR RAPIDLY SPREADING
WILDFIRE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING DUE TO THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

SWITCHING FROM FIRE DANGER IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HOT AND HUMID
AIR INTO THE PANHANDLE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP BUT A PUNCH OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LIKELY BE THE TRIGGER
WHICH SETS OFF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ANYWHERE FROM ALONG THE NEBRASKA/WYOMING BORDER TO JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE
A DEVELOPING DRY LINE/STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OCCURS.
BEST GUESS AT THIS TIME IS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF QUICKLY BECOMING SEVERE. 00Z NAM SHOWING
UPWARDS OF 4000J/KG SB CAPE AT 21Z TODAY FROM AROUND CHADRON TO
SIDNEY. SHOULD THIS BE THE CASE THEN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING.

COOLER DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH 70S INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN
PLACE. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS HOW DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST NAEFS/GEFS AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING US
REMAINING IN THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL YIELD TO MOSTLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY GETTING
SUPPRESSED TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROF IN
NORTHERN CANADA BEGINS TO EDGE SOUTH. THIS WILL PUT WYOMING ON THE
SOUTH EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES WHICH MAY FAVOR US IN A BIT MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH THE
WEEK EXCEPT IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE THEY COULD REACH THE
LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVING THROUGH IDAHO. MEANWHILE...THE DRY SLOT WAS STARTING TO
PUSH INTO WESTERN COLORADO. THE SURFACE TROF WAS SITUATED ALONG
THE LEE SIDE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH THE BULK OF THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS EAST IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL TROF
PUSHES EAST TODAY...THIS SHOULD HELP INITIATE SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE SURFACE TROF LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...THE NEBRASKA TAF SITES HAVE A PRETTY GOOD SHOT OF SEEING
SOME OF THESE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
THROUGH THE WYOMING TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE 03Z WHILE
THE NEBRASKA TAF SITES SHOULD SEE THIS WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN
BETWEEN 03Z- 06Z. GUSTY WINDS UP 50 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE AFTER
THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY BUT
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL MAKE FOR
MARGINAL FIRE CONDITIONS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...ZF/TJT




000
FXUS65 KCYS 280220
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
820 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

UPDATED THIS EVENINGS FORECAST TO ALLOW THE RED FLAG WARNING TO
EXPIRE ON TIME. ALSO UPDATED THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT SINCE TSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED A FEW HOURS LONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA. A FEW OF
THESE TSTORMS WERE SEVERE WITH UP TO GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED
IN SCOTTSBLUFF. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS OVER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...AND EXPECT THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS
TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY
AND COOL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONE MORE HOT DAY FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
TODAY...THEN COOLER READINGS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE VERY WARM AIR TODAY. IN FACT
WIND SPEEDS WILL APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH
OF CARBON COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR GREATER. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE VERY LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES...AND WITH THAT COMES AN EXTREME RISK FOR RAPIDLY SPREADING
WILDFIRE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING DUE TO THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

SWITCHING FROM FIRE DANGER IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HOT AND HUMID
AIR INTO THE PANHANDLE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP BUT A PUNCH OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LIKELY BE THE TRIGGER
WHICH SETS OFF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ANYWHERE FROM ALONG THE NEBRASKA/WYOMING BORDER TO JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE
A DEVELOPING DRY LINE/STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OCCURS.
BEST GUESS AT THIS TIME IS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF QUICKLY BECOMING SEVERE. 00Z NAM SHOWING
UPWARDS OF 4000J/KG SB CAPE AT 21Z TODAY FROM AROUND CHADRON TO
SIDNEY. SHOULD THIS BE THE CASE THEN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING.

COOLER DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH 70S INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN
PLACE. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS HOW DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST NAEFS/GEFS AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING US
REMAINING IN THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL YIELD TO MOSTLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY GETTING
SUPPRESSED TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROF IN
NORTHERN CANADA BEGINS TO EDGE SOUTH. THIS WILL PUT WYOMING ON THE
SOUTH EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES WHICH MAY FAVOR US IN A BIT MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH THE
WEEK EXCEPT IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE THEY COULD REACH THE
LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVING THROUGH IDAHO. MEANWHILE...THE DRY SLOT WAS STARTING TO
PUSH INTO WESTERN COLORADO. THE SURFACE TROF WAS SITUATED ALONG
THE LEE SIDE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH THE BULK OF THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS EAST IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL TROF
PUSHES EAST TODAY...THIS SHOULD HELP INITIATE SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE SURFACE TROF LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...THE NEBRASKA TAF SITES HAVE A PRETTY GOOD SHOT OF SEEING
SOME OF THESE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
THROUGH THE WYOMING TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE 03Z WHILE
THE NEBRASKA TAF SITES SHOULD SEE THIS WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN
BETWEEN 03Z- 06Z. GUSTY WINDS UP 50 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE AFTER
THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY BUT
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL MAKE FOR
MARGINAL FIRE CONDITIONS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...ZF/TJT



000
FXUS65 KCYS 280220
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
820 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

UPDATED THIS EVENINGS FORECAST TO ALLOW THE RED FLAG WARNING TO
EXPIRE ON TIME. ALSO UPDATED THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT SINCE TSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED A FEW HOURS LONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA. A FEW OF
THESE TSTORMS WERE SEVERE WITH UP TO GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED
IN SCOTTSBLUFF. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS OVER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...AND EXPECT THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS
TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY
AND COOL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONE MORE HOT DAY FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
TODAY...THEN COOLER READINGS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE VERY WARM AIR TODAY. IN FACT
WIND SPEEDS WILL APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH
OF CARBON COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR GREATER. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE VERY LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES...AND WITH THAT COMES AN EXTREME RISK FOR RAPIDLY SPREADING
WILDFIRE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING DUE TO THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

SWITCHING FROM FIRE DANGER IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HOT AND HUMID
AIR INTO THE PANHANDLE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP BUT A PUNCH OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LIKELY BE THE TRIGGER
WHICH SETS OFF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ANYWHERE FROM ALONG THE NEBRASKA/WYOMING BORDER TO JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE
A DEVELOPING DRY LINE/STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OCCURS.
BEST GUESS AT THIS TIME IS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF QUICKLY BECOMING SEVERE. 00Z NAM SHOWING
UPWARDS OF 4000J/KG SB CAPE AT 21Z TODAY FROM AROUND CHADRON TO
SIDNEY. SHOULD THIS BE THE CASE THEN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING.

COOLER DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH 70S INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN
PLACE. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS HOW DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST NAEFS/GEFS AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING US
REMAINING IN THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL YIELD TO MOSTLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY GETTING
SUPPRESSED TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROF IN
NORTHERN CANADA BEGINS TO EDGE SOUTH. THIS WILL PUT WYOMING ON THE
SOUTH EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES WHICH MAY FAVOR US IN A BIT MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH THE
WEEK EXCEPT IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE THEY COULD REACH THE
LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVING THROUGH IDAHO. MEANWHILE...THE DRY SLOT WAS STARTING TO
PUSH INTO WESTERN COLORADO. THE SURFACE TROF WAS SITUATED ALONG
THE LEE SIDE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH THE BULK OF THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS EAST IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL TROF
PUSHES EAST TODAY...THIS SHOULD HELP INITIATE SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE SURFACE TROF LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...THE NEBRASKA TAF SITES HAVE A PRETTY GOOD SHOT OF SEEING
SOME OF THESE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
THROUGH THE WYOMING TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE 03Z WHILE
THE NEBRASKA TAF SITES SHOULD SEE THIS WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN
BETWEEN 03Z- 06Z. GUSTY WINDS UP 50 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE AFTER
THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY BUT
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL MAKE FOR
MARGINAL FIRE CONDITIONS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...ZF/TJT




000
FXUS65 KCYS 272119
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
319 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONE MORE HOT DAY FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
TODAY...THEN COOLER READINGS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE VERY WARM AIR TODAY. IN FACT
WIND SPEEDS WILL APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH
OF CARBON COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR GREATER. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE VERY LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES...AND WITH THAT COMES AN EXTREME RISK FOR RAPIDLY SPREADING
WILDFIRE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING DUE TO THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

SWITCHING FROM FIRE DANGER IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HOT AND HUMID
AIR INTO THE PANHANDLE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP BUT A PUNCH OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LIKELY BE THE TRIGGER
WHICH SETS OFF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ANYWHERE FROM ALONG THE NEBRASKA/WYOMING BORDER TO JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE
A DEVELOPING DRY LINE/STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OCCURS.
BEST GUESS AT THIS TIME IS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF QUICKLY BECOMING SEVERE. 00Z NAM SHOWING
UPWARDS OF 4000J/KG SB CAPE AT 21Z TODAY FROM AROUND CHADRON TO
SIDNEY. SHOULD THIS BE THE CASE THEN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING.

COOLER DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH 70S INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN
PLACE. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS HOW DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST NAEFS/GEFS AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING US
REMAINING IN THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL YIELD TO MOSTLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY GETTING
SUPPRESSED TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROF IN
NORTHERN CANADA BEGINS TO EDGE SOUTH. THIS WILL PUT WYOMING ON THE
SOUTH EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES WHICH MAY FAVOR US IN A BIT MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH THE
WEEK EXCEPT IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE THEY COULD REACH THE
LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVING THROUGH IDAHO. MEANWHILE...THE DRY SLOT WAS STARTING TO
PUSH INTO WESTERN COLORADO. THE SURFACE TROF WAS SITUATED ALONG
THE LEE SIDE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH THE BULK OF THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS EAST IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL TROF
PUSHES EAST TODAY...THIS SHOULD HELP INITIATE SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE SURFACE TROF LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...THE NEBRASKA TAF SITES HAVE A PRETTY GOOD SHOT OF SEEING
SOME OF THESE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
THROUGH THE WYOMING TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE 03Z WHILE
THE NEBRASKA TAF SITES SHOULD SEE THIS WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN
BETWEEN 03Z- 06Z. GUSTY WINDS UP 50 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE AFTER
THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING WHERE GRASSES AND OTHER QUICK TO DRY VEGETATION IS
SUPPORTIVE A RAPID FIRE GROWTH. UNSEASONABLY STRONG WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES TO
PRODUCE EXTREME FIRE CONDITIONS TODAY...PARTICUALLY OVER PORTIONS
OF CARBON COUNTY AND FAR WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY WHERE WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION FOR TOMORROW BUT GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL MAKE FOR MARGINAL FIRE CONDITIONS. &&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301-302-304-
     306-310.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...ZF



000
FXUS65 KCYS 272119
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
319 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONE MORE HOT DAY FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
TODAY...THEN COOLER READINGS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE VERY WARM AIR TODAY. IN FACT
WIND SPEEDS WILL APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH
OF CARBON COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR GREATER. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE VERY LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES...AND WITH THAT COMES AN EXTREME RISK FOR RAPIDLY SPREADING
WILDFIRE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING DUE TO THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

SWITCHING FROM FIRE DANGER IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HOT AND HUMID
AIR INTO THE PANHANDLE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP BUT A PUNCH OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LIKELY BE THE TRIGGER
WHICH SETS OFF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ANYWHERE FROM ALONG THE NEBRASKA/WYOMING BORDER TO JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE
A DEVELOPING DRY LINE/STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OCCURS.
BEST GUESS AT THIS TIME IS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF QUICKLY BECOMING SEVERE. 00Z NAM SHOWING
UPWARDS OF 4000J/KG SB CAPE AT 21Z TODAY FROM AROUND CHADRON TO
SIDNEY. SHOULD THIS BE THE CASE THEN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING.

COOLER DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH 70S INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN
PLACE. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS HOW DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST NAEFS/GEFS AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING US
REMAINING IN THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL YIELD TO MOSTLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY GETTING
SUPPRESSED TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROF IN
NORTHERN CANADA BEGINS TO EDGE SOUTH. THIS WILL PUT WYOMING ON THE
SOUTH EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES WHICH MAY FAVOR US IN A BIT MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH THE
WEEK EXCEPT IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE THEY COULD REACH THE
LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVING THROUGH IDAHO. MEANWHILE...THE DRY SLOT WAS STARTING TO
PUSH INTO WESTERN COLORADO. THE SURFACE TROF WAS SITUATED ALONG
THE LEE SIDE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH THE BULK OF THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS EAST IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL TROF
PUSHES EAST TODAY...THIS SHOULD HELP INITIATE SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE SURFACE TROF LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...THE NEBRASKA TAF SITES HAVE A PRETTY GOOD SHOT OF SEEING
SOME OF THESE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
THROUGH THE WYOMING TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE 03Z WHILE
THE NEBRASKA TAF SITES SHOULD SEE THIS WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN
BETWEEN 03Z- 06Z. GUSTY WINDS UP 50 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE AFTER
THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING WHERE GRASSES AND OTHER QUICK TO DRY VEGETATION IS
SUPPORTIVE A RAPID FIRE GROWTH. UNSEASONABLY STRONG WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES TO
PRODUCE EXTREME FIRE CONDITIONS TODAY...PARTICUALLY OVER PORTIONS
OF CARBON COUNTY AND FAR WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY WHERE WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION FOR TOMORROW BUT GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL MAKE FOR MARGINAL FIRE CONDITIONS. &&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301-302-304-
     306-310.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...ZF




000
FXUS65 KRIW 272036
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
236 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

A WEAK STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE DRAPED EAST TO
WEST ALONG THE OWL CREEK MTNS AND ALONG THE JOHNSON/NATRONA COUNTY
LINE. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 40S AND 50S AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THEY ARE ONLY IN THE 20S. MEANWHILE A STRONG
PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS PLOWING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS FAR WESTERN WY
AND WILL EVENTUALLY  THE AIRMASS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL WY THIS EVENING AS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF WYOMING
EXPERIENCES A SFC FRONTAL OCCLUSION. AS THIS PACIFIC FRONT
PROGRESSES EAST...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS
ACROSS NORTHERN WY IN THE AREA OF HIGHER DEW POINTS AND RESULTANT
HIGHER CAPES. SPC HAS THIS AREA UNDER MARGINAL SO LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE A POSSIBILITY IN THESE AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY THIS EVENING. SO FAR...SMALL HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED AT
MAMMOTH AND DUBOIS AND AS FAR SOUTH AS CASPER.

THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS THE ON GOING RED FLAG WARNING FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL...EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WHERE MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
THE LOW TEENS HAVE BEEN COMMON ALONG WITH WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH
AS 35 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WITH EVEN STRONGER SHIFTING WINDS ANTICIPATED WITH THE
FROPA. WITH 3 HOURLY SFC PRESSURE RISES ANTICIPATED TO BE UP TO
12MB...MANY AREAS COULD SEE POST FRONTAL WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50
MPH. IN ADDITION...A HAINES INDEX OF SIX IS IN PLACE IN THESE
AREAS...NOT TO MENTION THE SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A DRY LIGHTNING
STRIKE. WILL LET THE RED FLAG RIDE THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 279...280...281...283...285 AND 300.

THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS BEING SLUNG BY A VIGOROUS
EASTBOUND SHORTAVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH HAS BEEN TRACKING
EAST ACROSS MONTANA. THIS TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF OVER EAST CENTRAL
MONTANA BY 06Z TONIGHT AND BECOME ALMOST VERTICALLY STACKED. THERE
IS PLENTY OF COLD AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WRAPPING AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW WITH H7 TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP BETWEEN -2 AND
-3C IN NW WYOMING LATER TONIGHT. IN FACT...TEMPS ARE ALREADY ONLY
IN THE 50S IN THE FAR WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THESE COLD H7
TEMPS...SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP TO BETWEEN 7K AND 7500 FEET IN
YELLOWSTONE PARK LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE UP
TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW COULD FALL JUST BEFORE THE WX SYSTEM PULLS
OUT TO THE EAST AND THE RESULTANT AREA OF PRECIP SHRINKS. AREAS
LIKE TOGWOTEE PASS COULD SEE A PERIOD OF SNOWFALL AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH GRANITE AND POWDER RIVER PASSES TO FOLLOW. THE
SOUTHERN WINDS COULD SEE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT WET SNOW
ABOVE 8500 FEET IN THE WEE HOURS TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE.

FOR TUESDAY...A COOLER BUT PLEASANTLY MILD AND SUNNY DAY IS IN
STORE. WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE MONTANA WEATHER
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS QUIET SOLUTION FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING.

CONDITIONS BEGIN TO CHANGE SUNDAY MORNING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE STATE. THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERATE SOME
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN WYOMING. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY... BUT WILL LEAVE FORECAST TRENDING TOWARDS THE SOLUTION
FOR LOW COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF INDICATES A
BETTER PUSH OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ON MONDAY WITH EXPECTED
ZONAL FLOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THIS SOLUTION. THE GFS IS NOT
AS AGGRESSIVE...WITH WEAKER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. UNDER ITS
SCENARIO...SHOWER COVERAGE WOULD CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED TO
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS.

REGARDLESS...EXPECT GENERALLY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO WEST AND
CENTRAL WYOMING THROUGH AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT MAINLY VCNTY AND NORTH OF A KJAC- KWRL-KBYG LINE
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SFC SW WINDS AT 20-35KTS WILL
PRECEDE THE FRONT WITH THE STRONGER WINDS FROM VCNTY KRKS-KCPR AND
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES FROM VCNTY KTHP-KLND. LLWS IN ADDITION TO
CONVECTIVE WIND SHEAR MAY BE ENCOUNTERED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
VCNTY KCOD- KBYG THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH A
PREVAILING NORTHERLY SFC WIND AND SW WINDS 20-30KTS AT RIDGETOP
LEVEL UNTIL THE STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.
SFC WEST WINDS AT 20-30KTS WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WYOMING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. THE NORTHERN ABSAROKA AND BIGHORN RANGES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN FQTLY OBSCURED WITH SCT -SHRA/-SHSN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONES 280 281 283 285 AND 300 THROUGH 10PM
TONIGHT...

JUST ABOUT EVERY ELEMENT WORTHY OF A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE
PRESENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND OVER 35
MPH ACROSS THE AREA WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE MORE
EXPOSED AND WIND PRONE AREAS...TO LOW HUMIDITY...TO DRY
THUNDERSTORMS AND A DRY COLD FRONT. AREAS EXPECTED TO BE MOST
AFFECTED WILL BE CASPER DISPATCH...SOUTHERN CODY DISPATCH...AND
RAWLINS DISPATCH AS THEY WILL HAVE THE MOST TIME AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT IN THE HOT AND DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW. MOST OF THE WET
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE IN TETON DISPATCH WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN CASPER AND CODY DISPATCH WITH
HAZARDS THAT RANGE FROM LARGE HAIL TO A TORNADO...WITH DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
IT WILL BE QUITE A BIT CALMER AND COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
TUESDAY BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE STATE...WINDS WILL CALMER BUT A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ279>281-283-
285-300.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...BRANHAM
AVIATION...LIPSON
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON




000
FXUS65 KRIW 272036
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
236 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

A WEAK STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE DRAPED EAST TO
WEST ALONG THE OWL CREEK MTNS AND ALONG THE JOHNSON/NATRONA COUNTY
LINE. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 40S AND 50S AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THEY ARE ONLY IN THE 20S. MEANWHILE A STRONG
PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS PLOWING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS FAR WESTERN WY
AND WILL EVENTUALLY  THE AIRMASS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL WY THIS EVENING AS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF WYOMING
EXPERIENCES A SFC FRONTAL OCCLUSION. AS THIS PACIFIC FRONT
PROGRESSES EAST...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS
ACROSS NORTHERN WY IN THE AREA OF HIGHER DEW POINTS AND RESULTANT
HIGHER CAPES. SPC HAS THIS AREA UNDER MARGINAL SO LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE A POSSIBILITY IN THESE AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY THIS EVENING. SO FAR...SMALL HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED AT
MAMMOTH AND DUBOIS AND AS FAR SOUTH AS CASPER.

THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS THE ON GOING RED FLAG WARNING FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL...EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WHERE MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
THE LOW TEENS HAVE BEEN COMMON ALONG WITH WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH
AS 35 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WITH EVEN STRONGER SHIFTING WINDS ANTICIPATED WITH THE
FROPA. WITH 3 HOURLY SFC PRESSURE RISES ANTICIPATED TO BE UP TO
12MB...MANY AREAS COULD SEE POST FRONTAL WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50
MPH. IN ADDITION...A HAINES INDEX OF SIX IS IN PLACE IN THESE
AREAS...NOT TO MENTION THE SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A DRY LIGHTNING
STRIKE. WILL LET THE RED FLAG RIDE THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 279...280...281...283...285 AND 300.

THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS BEING SLUNG BY A VIGOROUS
EASTBOUND SHORTAVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH HAS BEEN TRACKING
EAST ACROSS MONTANA. THIS TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF OVER EAST CENTRAL
MONTANA BY 06Z TONIGHT AND BECOME ALMOST VERTICALLY STACKED. THERE
IS PLENTY OF COLD AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WRAPPING AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW WITH H7 TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP BETWEEN -2 AND
-3C IN NW WYOMING LATER TONIGHT. IN FACT...TEMPS ARE ALREADY ONLY
IN THE 50S IN THE FAR WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THESE COLD H7
TEMPS...SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP TO BETWEEN 7K AND 7500 FEET IN
YELLOWSTONE PARK LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE UP
TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW COULD FALL JUST BEFORE THE WX SYSTEM PULLS
OUT TO THE EAST AND THE RESULTANT AREA OF PRECIP SHRINKS. AREAS
LIKE TOGWOTEE PASS COULD SEE A PERIOD OF SNOWFALL AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH GRANITE AND POWDER RIVER PASSES TO FOLLOW. THE
SOUTHERN WINDS COULD SEE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT WET SNOW
ABOVE 8500 FEET IN THE WEE HOURS TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE.

FOR TUESDAY...A COOLER BUT PLEASANTLY MILD AND SUNNY DAY IS IN
STORE. WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE MONTANA WEATHER
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS QUIET SOLUTION FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING.

CONDITIONS BEGIN TO CHANGE SUNDAY MORNING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE STATE. THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERATE SOME
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN WYOMING. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY... BUT WILL LEAVE FORECAST TRENDING TOWARDS THE SOLUTION
FOR LOW COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF INDICATES A
BETTER PUSH OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ON MONDAY WITH EXPECTED
ZONAL FLOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THIS SOLUTION. THE GFS IS NOT
AS AGGRESSIVE...WITH WEAKER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. UNDER ITS
SCENARIO...SHOWER COVERAGE WOULD CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED TO
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS.

REGARDLESS...EXPECT GENERALLY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO WEST AND
CENTRAL WYOMING THROUGH AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT MAINLY VCNTY AND NORTH OF A KJAC- KWRL-KBYG LINE
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SFC SW WINDS AT 20-35KTS WILL
PRECEDE THE FRONT WITH THE STRONGER WINDS FROM VCNTY KRKS-KCPR AND
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES FROM VCNTY KTHP-KLND. LLWS IN ADDITION TO
CONVECTIVE WIND SHEAR MAY BE ENCOUNTERED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
VCNTY KCOD- KBYG THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH A
PREVAILING NORTHERLY SFC WIND AND SW WINDS 20-30KTS AT RIDGETOP
LEVEL UNTIL THE STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.
SFC WEST WINDS AT 20-30KTS WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WYOMING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. THE NORTHERN ABSAROKA AND BIGHORN RANGES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN FQTLY OBSCURED WITH SCT -SHRA/-SHSN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONES 280 281 283 285 AND 300 THROUGH 10PM
TONIGHT...

JUST ABOUT EVERY ELEMENT WORTHY OF A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE
PRESENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND OVER 35
MPH ACROSS THE AREA WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE MORE
EXPOSED AND WIND PRONE AREAS...TO LOW HUMIDITY...TO DRY
THUNDERSTORMS AND A DRY COLD FRONT. AREAS EXPECTED TO BE MOST
AFFECTED WILL BE CASPER DISPATCH...SOUTHERN CODY DISPATCH...AND
RAWLINS DISPATCH AS THEY WILL HAVE THE MOST TIME AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT IN THE HOT AND DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW. MOST OF THE WET
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE IN TETON DISPATCH WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN CASPER AND CODY DISPATCH WITH
HAZARDS THAT RANGE FROM LARGE HAIL TO A TORNADO...WITH DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
IT WILL BE QUITE A BIT CALMER AND COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
TUESDAY BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE STATE...WINDS WILL CALMER BUT A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ279>281-283-
285-300.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...BRANHAM
AVIATION...LIPSON
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON



000
FXUS63 KUNR 272006
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
206 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS INTENSE UPPER LOW OVER NRN ID WITH STRONG SHORT
WAVE EJECTING NEWD THRU WY. AT THE SFC...LOW CENTER IS OVER SERN
MT WITH TROF EXTENDING SWD THROUGH ERN WY...AND CDFNT LAGGING
BEHIND ABOUT 100NM. ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING ACRS ERN
WY AND IS BEGINNING TO ROOT IN THE BL EARLY THIS AFTN.

THIS AFTN/TONIGHT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE FIRING ALONG SFC
TROF AS IT ADVANCES FROM ERN WY INTO WRN SD. CAP IS STILL IN PLACE
ACRS THE WRN SD PLAINS...BUT WILL ERODE AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES WHERE
MLCAPE IN THE 1000-2000J/KG IS EXPECTED AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
RANGES FROM 30-50KTS. WHILE A FEW STRONG TO SVR STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN NERN WY...THE BEST CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS RESIDE OVER
WRN SD AND ESPECIALLY INTO NWRN SD. ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWFA THIS EVENING AND END IN MOST PLACES BY
MIDNIGHT. AS THE CDFNT SURGES INTO THE CWFA LATE THIS
AFTN/EVE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS GIVEN 4-8MB/3HR PRES
RISES. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY RISE INTO THE ADVISORY CATEGORY WHEN THE
CDFNT FIRST PUSHES THROUGH...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST VERY
LONG SO WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY...DRY AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL WORK ACRS THE CWFA WITH
STACKED UPPER LOW TRACKING EWD ALONG THE CNDN/ND BORDER. 850MB
WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 40-50KT RANGE ACRS NWRN SD...WITH
GOOD MIXING RESULTING IN ADVISORY/WARNING TYPE WINDS AND WILL KEEP
THE HIGH WIND WATCH IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S...GENERALLY 60S IN THE BLKHLS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...RESULTING IN
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A COUPLE WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRONG
SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. MVFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH TS AS
WELL AS LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MT/ND TNGT AND TUES. AHEAD OF
THE LOW...VERY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRIER
AIR INTO NERN WY. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES...AND LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE RED FLAG CONDITIONS INTO THE EVNG. ISOLD-
SCT TSRA ALSO WILL CROSS THE AERA...AND COULD RESULT IN DRY
LIGHTNING BEFORE THEY MOVE INTO WRN SD. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-073.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
     WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...13




000
FXUS63 KUNR 272006
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
206 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS INTENSE UPPER LOW OVER NRN ID WITH STRONG SHORT
WAVE EJECTING NEWD THRU WY. AT THE SFC...LOW CENTER IS OVER SERN
MT WITH TROF EXTENDING SWD THROUGH ERN WY...AND CDFNT LAGGING
BEHIND ABOUT 100NM. ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING ACRS ERN
WY AND IS BEGINNING TO ROOT IN THE BL EARLY THIS AFTN.

THIS AFTN/TONIGHT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE FIRING ALONG SFC
TROF AS IT ADVANCES FROM ERN WY INTO WRN SD. CAP IS STILL IN PLACE
ACRS THE WRN SD PLAINS...BUT WILL ERODE AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES WHERE
MLCAPE IN THE 1000-2000J/KG IS EXPECTED AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
RANGES FROM 30-50KTS. WHILE A FEW STRONG TO SVR STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN NERN WY...THE BEST CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS RESIDE OVER
WRN SD AND ESPECIALLY INTO NWRN SD. ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWFA THIS EVENING AND END IN MOST PLACES BY
MIDNIGHT. AS THE CDFNT SURGES INTO THE CWFA LATE THIS
AFTN/EVE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS GIVEN 4-8MB/3HR PRES
RISES. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY RISE INTO THE ADVISORY CATEGORY WHEN THE
CDFNT FIRST PUSHES THROUGH...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST VERY
LONG SO WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY...DRY AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL WORK ACRS THE CWFA WITH
STACKED UPPER LOW TRACKING EWD ALONG THE CNDN/ND BORDER. 850MB
WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 40-50KT RANGE ACRS NWRN SD...WITH
GOOD MIXING RESULTING IN ADVISORY/WARNING TYPE WINDS AND WILL KEEP
THE HIGH WIND WATCH IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S...GENERALLY 60S IN THE BLKHLS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...RESULTING IN
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A COUPLE WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRONG
SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. MVFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH TS AS
WELL AS LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MT/ND TNGT AND TUES. AHEAD OF
THE LOW...VERY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRIER
AIR INTO NERN WY. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES...AND LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE RED FLAG CONDITIONS INTO THE EVNG. ISOLD-
SCT TSRA ALSO WILL CROSS THE AERA...AND COULD RESULT IN DRY
LIGHTNING BEFORE THEY MOVE INTO WRN SD. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-073.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
     WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...13



000
FXUS65 KRIW 271800
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1200 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

AN INTERESTING 24 HOURS IN STORE FOR THE STATE OF WYOMING AS A LARGE
AND STRONGLY FORCED TROUGH DIGS TO OUR WEST AND EVENTUALLY CLOSES
OFF AND STACKS OVER EASTERN MONTANA BY LATE THIS EVENING.

THERE WILL BE A NUMBER OF HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE
MOST WIDESPREAD IMPACT WILL BE ON FIRE WEATHER AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THEN ACCELERATES AS THE LOW CLOSES
OFF TO THE NORTH WITH WIDESPREAD WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MANY AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE TODAY...WITH THE
LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EXPECTED IN SWEETWATER COUNTY...WHERE WE
ALREADY HAVE A WILDFIRE...AND IN FREMONT...NATRONA AND SOUTHERN
JOHNSON COUNTIES. IN ADDITION...IT WILL BE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON.
STORMS FORMED IN AREAS THOUGHT TO BE TOO DRY YESTERDAY...WHICH
KICKED OFF SOME DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN SWEETWATER COUNTY. THERE COULD
ALSO BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON FOR AN ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORM...BUT AT THE VERY LEAST IT WILL BE DRY AND UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR A HIGH HAINES INDEX...WHICH MEANS THAT ANY LARGE FIRES
THAT MAY DEVELOP COULD BECOME PLUME DOMINATED.

FINALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL RAKE ACROSS THE STATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
FOR ABOUT HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY WHICH
MEANS A SUDDEN WIND SHIFT AND ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR FOR MOST AREAS
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE BRIDGER/OWL CREEK RANGES.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
DIPS SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS
OF 40KT THAT COULD ENCOURAGE LARGE HAIL...PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF
AN INCH INDICATING PLENTY OF FUEL FOR STRONGER STORMS WITH FLASH
FLOODING A POSSIBILITY IN MORE PRONE AREAS...AND PLENTY OF DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH THE SWIFT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ENCOURAGE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW
MORE ORGANIZED STORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS BUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LESS THAN IN THE BIGHORN BASIN AND
JOHNSON COUNTY.

IT WILL BE QUITE COOL BEHIND THE FRONT FOR JULY...WITH H7 TEMPS
PROJECTED TO DIP TO -2C IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING
YELLOWSTONE...WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO A SNOW LEVEL OF
7500FT...LUCKILY MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER AND DONE BY
THE TIME TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THERE COULD
REALISTICALLY BE SOME SNOW ABOVE 9000FT IN THE PARK TONIGHT.

SPEAKING OF COLD...THERE COULD BE SOME TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS THE WEST ON TUESDAY MORNING...INCLUDING AREAS OF THE UPPER
WIND RIVER BASIN...YELLOWSTONE...JACKSON VALLEY...AND STAR VALLEY.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE FAIRLY MILD ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH LOW HUMIDITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE QUITE A BIT CALMER AS WELL. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO
BE DRY BUT SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
DRY CONDITIONS WITH A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOME MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO WRAP
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH OVER THE WEEKEND
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH.

DISCUSSION...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE
DOMINANT UPPER HIGH SETTLING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK...AND HIGHER OVERALL HEIGHTS ACROSS WYOMING. A VERY DRY
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SO FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...THOUGH WINDS SHOULD BE
GENERALLY LIGHT.

A SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN WYOMING ON
SATURDAY...COMBINED WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MONSOONAL
MOISTURE BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FOUR
CORNERS HIGH. ISOLATED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY
CONFINED ALONG FAVORED MOUNTAIN/VALLEY BREEZE BOUNDARIES NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. RETURN SE FLOW AROUND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS MAY BRING BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS NORTH AND EASTERN WYOMING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHILE MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE WEST
AND NORTH. THIS WILL BRING A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS BY MONDAY WHILE SOME STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY JOHNSON COUNTY IN WHAT WILL BE THE
BEGINNINGS OF LATE NIGHT MCS ACTIVITY FURTHER EAST OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S
TO MID 90S ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASINS WITH MOSTLY 80S IN THE
WESTERN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE WEST AND WILL PLOW THROUGH
AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
-TSRA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT MAINLY VCNTY AND NORTH OF A KJAC-
KWRL-KBYG LINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SFC SW WINDS AT
20-35KTS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT WITH THE STRONGER WINDS FROM VCNTY
KRKS-KCPR AND ALONG THE EAST SLOPES FROM VCNTY KTHP-KLND.
LLWS IN ADDITION TO CONVECTIVE WIND SHEAR MAY BE ENCOUNTERED
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT VCNTY KCOD-KBYG IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A
PREVAILING NORTHERLY SFC WIND AND SW WINDS 20-30KTS AT RIDGETOP
LEVEL. SFC WEST WINDS AT 20-30KTS WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WYOMING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. THE NORTHERN ABSAROKA AND BIGHORN RANGES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN FQTLY OBSCURED WITH SCT -SHRA/-SHSN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONES 280 281 283 285 AND 300 THROUGH 10PM
TONIGHT...

JUST ABOUT EVERY ELEMENT WORTHY OF A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE
PRESENT TODAY FROM WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND OVER 35 MPH ACROSS THE
AREA WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE MORE EXPOSED AND WIND
PRONE AREAS...TO LOW HUMIDITY...TO DRY THUNDERSTORMS AND A DRY COLD
FRONT. AREAS EXPECTED TO BE MOST AFFECTED WILL BE CASPER
DISPATCH...SOUTHERN CODY DISPATCH...AND RAWLINS DISPATCH AS THEY
WILL HAVE THE MOST TIME AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE HOT AND DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW. MOST OF THE WET THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE IN
TETON DISPATCH WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN CASPER
AND CODY DISPATCH WITH HAZARDS THAT RANGE FROM LARGE HAIL TO A
TORNADO...WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD. IT
WILL BE QUITE A BIT CALMER AND COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY
BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
STATE...WINDS WILL CALMER BUT A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ280-281-285-
300.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR WYZ283.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...AEM/LIPSON
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN



000
FXUS63 KUNR 271743
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1143 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH NERN WY ATTM PRODUCING AREAS OF BKN MID
LVL CLOUDS AND A FEW -TSRA...AND PREVIOUSLY ADDED THIS TO FCST.
MORE ROBUST WAVE STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TODAY AHEAD OF A
STRONG CDFNT. BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS AND CAMS HAVE CUT BACK ON
POPS A BIT IN THE EAST/SOUTH INTO THIS EVENING...WITH BEST
CONCENTRATION OF LIFT EXPECTED OVER NWRN SD. SVR PARAMETERS IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE CWFA...ESPECIALLY NWRN SD. WILL LAUNCH A
SPECIAL 20Z SOUNDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED AN INTENSE MIDLEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. AN MCS WAS JUST EAST OF THE CWA AND WAS
BEING AIDED BY A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW. AT
THE SURFACE A LOW WAS OVER CNTRL WY WITH AN EXTENSION TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS ERN MT. THE MCS TO OUR NORTHEAST HAS TRIGGERED
GRAVITY WAVES PER THE KUDX WSR-88D AND THESE WERE PROPAGATING TO
THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE BLKHLS...HELPING TO MAINTAIN A MOIST
EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

FOR TODAY AND TNGT THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO ERN MT WITH A POTENT
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH (-3SD H5 ANOMALIES) EJECTING ACROSS THE CWA.
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT COMBINED WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND BUOYANCY
WILL LEAD TO SCT SEVERE TSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A LEE TROUGH/
DRYLINE EARLY THIS AFTN OVER NERN WY AND THEN PROGRESSING ACROSS
WRN SD LATE THIS AFTN AND EVNG. A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE (+3SD
850MB T ANOMALIES) ALSO WILL RESULT IN HOT WEATHER AGAIN TODAY...
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE
AREA TNGT. THIS WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS NERN WY...SEE FIRE WX DISC BELOW. TSTORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF
THE CWA BY 09Z.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN ND TUESDAY AND THEN NORTH OF MN
BY WEDS MRNG. THIS WILL PLACE THE CWA UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
COLD ADVECTION FOR TUES...LEADING TO RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE NRN 2/3 OF THE AREA. BASED ON THE STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF 5
TO 7 FOR WESTERLY 850-MB WINDS ACROSS NWRN SD...WILL ISSUE A HIGH
WIND WATCH FOR TUES FOR THE PLAINS OF NWRN SD. WINDS WILL STILL BE
GUSTY TUES NGT BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...SOME
WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS MAY GET CLOSE TO NWRN SD TUES...BUT EXPECT
THEM TO STAY NORTH GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...RESULTING IN MAINLY
DRY WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
MAY RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
CWA THURSDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE SLIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TSRA EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
MVFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH TS AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MT/ND TNGT AND TUES. AHEAD OF
THE LOW...VERY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO NERN
WY. THE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES
WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTN/EVNG. ISOLD-SCT TSRA
ALSO WILL DEVELOP FROM 18-21Z...AND COULD RESULT IN DRY LIGHTNING
BEFORE THEY MOVE INTO WRN SD. FROM 21-03Z...A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS NERN WY AND BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. BECAUSE OF
THE RECENT DRYING OF FUELS...THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER NERN WY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     SDZ001-002-012>014-073.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...BUNKERS



000
FXUS63 KUNR 271743
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1143 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH NERN WY ATTM PRODUCING AREAS OF BKN MID
LVL CLOUDS AND A FEW -TSRA...AND PREVIOUSLY ADDED THIS TO FCST.
MORE ROBUST WAVE STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TODAY AHEAD OF A
STRONG CDFNT. BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS AND CAMS HAVE CUT BACK ON
POPS A BIT IN THE EAST/SOUTH INTO THIS EVENING...WITH BEST
CONCENTRATION OF LIFT EXPECTED OVER NWRN SD. SVR PARAMETERS IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE CWFA...ESPECIALLY NWRN SD. WILL LAUNCH A
SPECIAL 20Z SOUNDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED AN INTENSE MIDLEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. AN MCS WAS JUST EAST OF THE CWA AND WAS
BEING AIDED BY A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW. AT
THE SURFACE A LOW WAS OVER CNTRL WY WITH AN EXTENSION TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS ERN MT. THE MCS TO OUR NORTHEAST HAS TRIGGERED
GRAVITY WAVES PER THE KUDX WSR-88D AND THESE WERE PROPAGATING TO
THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE BLKHLS...HELPING TO MAINTAIN A MOIST
EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

FOR TODAY AND TNGT THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO ERN MT WITH A POTENT
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH (-3SD H5 ANOMALIES) EJECTING ACROSS THE CWA.
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT COMBINED WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND BUOYANCY
WILL LEAD TO SCT SEVERE TSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A LEE TROUGH/
DRYLINE EARLY THIS AFTN OVER NERN WY AND THEN PROGRESSING ACROSS
WRN SD LATE THIS AFTN AND EVNG. A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE (+3SD
850MB T ANOMALIES) ALSO WILL RESULT IN HOT WEATHER AGAIN TODAY...
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE
AREA TNGT. THIS WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS NERN WY...SEE FIRE WX DISC BELOW. TSTORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF
THE CWA BY 09Z.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN ND TUESDAY AND THEN NORTH OF MN
BY WEDS MRNG. THIS WILL PLACE THE CWA UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
COLD ADVECTION FOR TUES...LEADING TO RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE NRN 2/3 OF THE AREA. BASED ON THE STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF 5
TO 7 FOR WESTERLY 850-MB WINDS ACROSS NWRN SD...WILL ISSUE A HIGH
WIND WATCH FOR TUES FOR THE PLAINS OF NWRN SD. WINDS WILL STILL BE
GUSTY TUES NGT BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...SOME
WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS MAY GET CLOSE TO NWRN SD TUES...BUT EXPECT
THEM TO STAY NORTH GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...RESULTING IN MAINLY
DRY WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
MAY RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
CWA THURSDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE SLIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TSRA EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
MVFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH TS AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MT/ND TNGT AND TUES. AHEAD OF
THE LOW...VERY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO NERN
WY. THE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES
WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTN/EVNG. ISOLD-SCT TSRA
ALSO WILL DEVELOP FROM 18-21Z...AND COULD RESULT IN DRY LIGHTNING
BEFORE THEY MOVE INTO WRN SD. FROM 21-03Z...A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS NERN WY AND BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. BECAUSE OF
THE RECENT DRYING OF FUELS...THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER NERN WY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     SDZ001-002-012>014-073.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...BUNKERS



000
FXUS65 KCYS 271731
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1131 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

EXTREME RED FLAG CONDITIONS STILL ON TRACK FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. FUELS IN
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 306 (UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN) HAVE BECOME
CRITICAL AND THIS ZONE HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE RED FLAG WARNING.
RH VALUES AND WINDS IN ZONE 310 WILL BE MORE MARGINAL NEAR THE SFC
TROUGH...HOWEVER WILL KEEP THEM IN THE WARNING. THE THREAT FOR A
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR STORM IS STILL MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE
FAR EASTERN ZONES WHERE THE RUC SHOWS CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1250
J/KG BY LATE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONE MORE HOT DAY FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
TODAY...THEN COOLER READINGS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE VERY WARM AIR TODAY. IN FACT
WIND SPEEDS WILL APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH
OF CARBON COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR GREATER. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE VERY LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES...AND WITH THAT COMES AN EXTREME RISK FOR RAPIDLY SPREADING
WILDFIRE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING DUE TO THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

SWITCHING FROM FIRE DANGER IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HOT AND HUMID
AIR INTO THE PANHANDLE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP BUT A PUNCH OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LIKELY BE THE TRIGGER
WHICH SETS OFF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ANYWHERE FROM ALONG THE NEBRASKA/WYOMING BORDER TO JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE
A DEVELOPING DRY LINE/STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OCCURS.
BEST GUESS AT THIS TIME IS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF QUICKLY BECOMING SEVERE. 00Z NAM SHOWING
UPWARDS OF 4000J/KG SB CAPE AT 21Z TODAY FROM AROUND CHADRON TO
SIDNEY. SHOULD THIS BE THE CASE THEN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING.

COOLER DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH 70S INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE.
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL
RETROGRADE WEST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. THE EXCEPTIONS
MAY BE ISOLATED TSTORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY
WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST WY
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH A WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SLIGHT ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVING THROUGH IDAHO. MEANWHILE...THE DRY SLOT WAS STARTING TO
PUSH INTO WESTERN COLORADO. THE SURFACE TROF WAS SITUATED ALONG
THE LEE SIDE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH THE BULK OF THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS EAST IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL TROF
PUSHES EAST TODAY...THIS SHOULD HELP INITIATE SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE SURFACE TROF LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...THE NEBRASKA TAF SITES HAVE A PRETTY GOOD SHOT OF SEEING
SOME OF THESE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
THROUGH THE WYOMING TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE 03Z WHILE
THE NEBRASKA TAF SITES SHOULD SEE THIS WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN
BETWEEN 03Z- 06Z. GUSTY WINDS UP 50 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE AFTER
THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING WHERE GRASSES AND OTHER QUICK TO DRY VEGETATION IS SUPPORTIVE
OF RAPID FIRE GROWTH. UNSEASONABLY STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL COMBINE WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITIES TO PRODUCE EXTREME FIRE
CONDITIONS TODAY...PARTICULARLY OVER PORTIONS OF CARBON COUNTY AND
FAR WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY WHERE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY BUT
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL MAKE FOR
MARGINAL FIRE CONDITIONS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301-302-304-
     306-310.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZF
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...SML/MAJ



000
FXUS63 KUNR 271633
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1033 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH NERN WY ATTM PRODUCING AREAS OF BKN MID
LVL CLOUDS AND A FEW -TSRA...AND PREVIOUSLY ADDED THIS TO FCST.
MORE ROBUST WAVE STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TODAY AHEAD OF A
STRONG CDFNT. BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS AND CAMS HAVE CUT BACK ON
POPS A BIT IN THE EAST/SOUTH INTO THIS EVENING...WITH BEST
CONCENTRATION OF LIFT EXPECTED OVER NWRN SD. SVR PARAMETERS IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE CWFA...ESPECIALLY NWRN SD. WILL LAUNCH A
SPECIAL 20Z SOUNDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED AN INTENSE MIDLEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. AN MCS WAS JUST EAST OF THE CWA AND WAS
BEING AIDED BY A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW. AT
THE SURFACE A LOW WAS OVER CNTRL WY WITH AN EXTENSION TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS ERN MT. THE MCS TO OUR NORTHEAST HAS TRIGGERED
GRAVITY WAVES PER THE KUDX WSR-88D AND THESE WERE PROPAGATING TO
THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE BLKHLS...HELPING TO MAINTAIN A MOIST
EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

FOR TODAY AND TNGT THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO ERN MT WITH A POTENT
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH (-3SD H5 ANOMALIES) EJECTING ACROSS THE CWA.
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT COMBINED WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND BUOYANCY
WILL LEAD TO SCT SEVERE TSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A LEE TROUGH/
DRYLINE EARLY THIS AFTN OVER NERN WY AND THEN PROGRESSING ACROSS
WRN SD LATE THIS AFTN AND EVNG. A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE (+3SD
850MB T ANOMALIES) ALSO WILL RESULT IN HOT WEATHER AGAIN TODAY...
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE
AREA TNGT. THIS WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS NERN WY...SEE FIRE WX DISC BELOW. TSTORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF
THE CWA BY 09Z.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN ND TUESDAY AND THEN NORTH OF MN
BY WEDS MRNG. THIS WILL PLACE THE CWA UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
COLD ADVECTION FOR TUES...LEADING TO RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE NRN 2/3 OF THE AREA. BASED ON THE STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF 5
TO 7 FOR WESTERLY 850-MB WINDS ACROSS NWRN SD...WILL ISSUE A HIGH
WIND WATCH FOR TUES FOR THE PLAINS OF NWRN SD. WINDS WILL STILL BE
GUSTY TUES NGT BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...SOME
WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS MAY GET CLOSE TO NWRN SD TUES...BUT EXPECT
THEM TO STAY NORTH GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...RESULTING IN MAINLY
DRY WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
MAY RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
CWA THURSDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE SLIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 458 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH TS AS
WELL AS LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
FRONT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MT/ND TNGT AND TUES. AHEAD OF
THE LOW...VERY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO NERN
WY. THE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES
WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTN/EVNG. ISOLD-SCT TSRA
ALSO WILL DEVELOP FROM 18-21Z...AND COULD RESULT IN DRY LIGHTNING
BEFORE THEY MOVE INTO WRN SD. FROM 21-03Z...A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS NERN WY AND BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. BECAUSE OF
THE RECENT DRYING OF FUELS...THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER NERN WY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-073.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
     WYZ259-297-298.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE
FIRE WEATHER...BUNKERS




000
FXUS63 KUNR 271633
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1033 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH NERN WY ATTM PRODUCING AREAS OF BKN MID
LVL CLOUDS AND A FEW -TSRA...AND PREVIOUSLY ADDED THIS TO FCST.
MORE ROBUST WAVE STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TODAY AHEAD OF A
STRONG CDFNT. BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS AND CAMS HAVE CUT BACK ON
POPS A BIT IN THE EAST/SOUTH INTO THIS EVENING...WITH BEST
CONCENTRATION OF LIFT EXPECTED OVER NWRN SD. SVR PARAMETERS IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE CWFA...ESPECIALLY NWRN SD. WILL LAUNCH A
SPECIAL 20Z SOUNDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED AN INTENSE MIDLEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. AN MCS WAS JUST EAST OF THE CWA AND WAS
BEING AIDED BY A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW. AT
THE SURFACE A LOW WAS OVER CNTRL WY WITH AN EXTENSION TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS ERN MT. THE MCS TO OUR NORTHEAST HAS TRIGGERED
GRAVITY WAVES PER THE KUDX WSR-88D AND THESE WERE PROPAGATING TO
THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE BLKHLS...HELPING TO MAINTAIN A MOIST
EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

FOR TODAY AND TNGT THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO ERN MT WITH A POTENT
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH (-3SD H5 ANOMALIES) EJECTING ACROSS THE CWA.
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT COMBINED WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND BUOYANCY
WILL LEAD TO SCT SEVERE TSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A LEE TROUGH/
DRYLINE EARLY THIS AFTN OVER NERN WY AND THEN PROGRESSING ACROSS
WRN SD LATE THIS AFTN AND EVNG. A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE (+3SD
850MB T ANOMALIES) ALSO WILL RESULT IN HOT WEATHER AGAIN TODAY...
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE
AREA TNGT. THIS WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS NERN WY...SEE FIRE WX DISC BELOW. TSTORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF
THE CWA BY 09Z.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN ND TUESDAY AND THEN NORTH OF MN
BY WEDS MRNG. THIS WILL PLACE THE CWA UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
COLD ADVECTION FOR TUES...LEADING TO RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE NRN 2/3 OF THE AREA. BASED ON THE STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF 5
TO 7 FOR WESTERLY 850-MB WINDS ACROSS NWRN SD...WILL ISSUE A HIGH
WIND WATCH FOR TUES FOR THE PLAINS OF NWRN SD. WINDS WILL STILL BE
GUSTY TUES NGT BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...SOME
WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS MAY GET CLOSE TO NWRN SD TUES...BUT EXPECT
THEM TO STAY NORTH GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...RESULTING IN MAINLY
DRY WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
MAY RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
CWA THURSDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE SLIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 458 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH TS AS
WELL AS LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
FRONT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MT/ND TNGT AND TUES. AHEAD OF
THE LOW...VERY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO NERN
WY. THE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES
WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTN/EVNG. ISOLD-SCT TSRA
ALSO WILL DEVELOP FROM 18-21Z...AND COULD RESULT IN DRY LIGHTNING
BEFORE THEY MOVE INTO WRN SD. FROM 21-03Z...A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS NERN WY AND BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. BECAUSE OF
THE RECENT DRYING OF FUELS...THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER NERN WY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-073.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
     WYZ259-297-298.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE
FIRE WEATHER...BUNKERS




000
FXUS63 KUNR 271633
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1033 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH NERN WY ATTM PRODUCING AREAS OF BKN MID
LVL CLOUDS AND A FEW -TSRA...AND PREVIOUSLY ADDED THIS TO FCST.
MORE ROBUST WAVE STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TODAY AHEAD OF A
STRONG CDFNT. BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS AND CAMS HAVE CUT BACK ON
POPS A BIT IN THE EAST/SOUTH INTO THIS EVENING...WITH BEST
CONCENTRATION OF LIFT EXPECTED OVER NWRN SD. SVR PARAMETERS IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE CWFA...ESPECIALLY NWRN SD. WILL LAUNCH A
SPECIAL 20Z SOUNDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED AN INTENSE MIDLEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. AN MCS WAS JUST EAST OF THE CWA AND WAS
BEING AIDED BY A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW. AT
THE SURFACE A LOW WAS OVER CNTRL WY WITH AN EXTENSION TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS ERN MT. THE MCS TO OUR NORTHEAST HAS TRIGGERED
GRAVITY WAVES PER THE KUDX WSR-88D AND THESE WERE PROPAGATING TO
THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE BLKHLS...HELPING TO MAINTAIN A MOIST
EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

FOR TODAY AND TNGT THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO ERN MT WITH A POTENT
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH (-3SD H5 ANOMALIES) EJECTING ACROSS THE CWA.
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT COMBINED WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND BUOYANCY
WILL LEAD TO SCT SEVERE TSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A LEE TROUGH/
DRYLINE EARLY THIS AFTN OVER NERN WY AND THEN PROGRESSING ACROSS
WRN SD LATE THIS AFTN AND EVNG. A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE (+3SD
850MB T ANOMALIES) ALSO WILL RESULT IN HOT WEATHER AGAIN TODAY...
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE
AREA TNGT. THIS WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS NERN WY...SEE FIRE WX DISC BELOW. TSTORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF
THE CWA BY 09Z.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN ND TUESDAY AND THEN NORTH OF MN
BY WEDS MRNG. THIS WILL PLACE THE CWA UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
COLD ADVECTION FOR TUES...LEADING TO RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE NRN 2/3 OF THE AREA. BASED ON THE STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF 5
TO 7 FOR WESTERLY 850-MB WINDS ACROSS NWRN SD...WILL ISSUE A HIGH
WIND WATCH FOR TUES FOR THE PLAINS OF NWRN SD. WINDS WILL STILL BE
GUSTY TUES NGT BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...SOME
WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS MAY GET CLOSE TO NWRN SD TUES...BUT EXPECT
THEM TO STAY NORTH GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...RESULTING IN MAINLY
DRY WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
MAY RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
CWA THURSDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE SLIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 458 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH TS AS
WELL AS LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
FRONT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MT/ND TNGT AND TUES. AHEAD OF
THE LOW...VERY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO NERN
WY. THE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES
WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTN/EVNG. ISOLD-SCT TSRA
ALSO WILL DEVELOP FROM 18-21Z...AND COULD RESULT IN DRY LIGHTNING
BEFORE THEY MOVE INTO WRN SD. FROM 21-03Z...A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS NERN WY AND BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. BECAUSE OF
THE RECENT DRYING OF FUELS...THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER NERN WY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-073.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
     WYZ259-297-298.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE
FIRE WEATHER...BUNKERS




000
FXUS63 KUNR 271633
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1033 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH NERN WY ATTM PRODUCING AREAS OF BKN MID
LVL CLOUDS AND A FEW -TSRA...AND PREVIOUSLY ADDED THIS TO FCST.
MORE ROBUST WAVE STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TODAY AHEAD OF A
STRONG CDFNT. BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS AND CAMS HAVE CUT BACK ON
POPS A BIT IN THE EAST/SOUTH INTO THIS EVENING...WITH BEST
CONCENTRATION OF LIFT EXPECTED OVER NWRN SD. SVR PARAMETERS IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE CWFA...ESPECIALLY NWRN SD. WILL LAUNCH A
SPECIAL 20Z SOUNDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED AN INTENSE MIDLEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. AN MCS WAS JUST EAST OF THE CWA AND WAS
BEING AIDED BY A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW. AT
THE SURFACE A LOW WAS OVER CNTRL WY WITH AN EXTENSION TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS ERN MT. THE MCS TO OUR NORTHEAST HAS TRIGGERED
GRAVITY WAVES PER THE KUDX WSR-88D AND THESE WERE PROPAGATING TO
THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE BLKHLS...HELPING TO MAINTAIN A MOIST
EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

FOR TODAY AND TNGT THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO ERN MT WITH A POTENT
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH (-3SD H5 ANOMALIES) EJECTING ACROSS THE CWA.
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT COMBINED WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND BUOYANCY
WILL LEAD TO SCT SEVERE TSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A LEE TROUGH/
DRYLINE EARLY THIS AFTN OVER NERN WY AND THEN PROGRESSING ACROSS
WRN SD LATE THIS AFTN AND EVNG. A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE (+3SD
850MB T ANOMALIES) ALSO WILL RESULT IN HOT WEATHER AGAIN TODAY...
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE
AREA TNGT. THIS WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS NERN WY...SEE FIRE WX DISC BELOW. TSTORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF
THE CWA BY 09Z.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN ND TUESDAY AND THEN NORTH OF MN
BY WEDS MRNG. THIS WILL PLACE THE CWA UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
COLD ADVECTION FOR TUES...LEADING TO RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE NRN 2/3 OF THE AREA. BASED ON THE STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF 5
TO 7 FOR WESTERLY 850-MB WINDS ACROSS NWRN SD...WILL ISSUE A HIGH
WIND WATCH FOR TUES FOR THE PLAINS OF NWRN SD. WINDS WILL STILL BE
GUSTY TUES NGT BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...SOME
WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS MAY GET CLOSE TO NWRN SD TUES...BUT EXPECT
THEM TO STAY NORTH GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...RESULTING IN MAINLY
DRY WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
MAY RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
CWA THURSDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE SLIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 458 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH TS AS
WELL AS LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
FRONT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MT/ND TNGT AND TUES. AHEAD OF
THE LOW...VERY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO NERN
WY. THE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES
WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTN/EVNG. ISOLD-SCT TSRA
ALSO WILL DEVELOP FROM 18-21Z...AND COULD RESULT IN DRY LIGHTNING
BEFORE THEY MOVE INTO WRN SD. FROM 21-03Z...A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS NERN WY AND BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. BECAUSE OF
THE RECENT DRYING OF FUELS...THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER NERN WY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-073.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
     WYZ259-297-298.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE
FIRE WEATHER...BUNKERS




000
FXUS65 KCYS 271154
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
554 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONE MORE HOT DAY FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
TODAY...THEN COOLER READINGS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE VERY WARM AIR TODAY. IN FACT
WIND SPEEDS WILL APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH
OF CARBON COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR GREATER. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE VERY LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES...AND WITH THAT COMES AN EXTREME RISK FOR RAPIDLY SPREADING
WILDFIRE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING DUE TO THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

SWITCHING FROM FIRE DANGER IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HOT AND HUMID
AIR INTO THE PANHANDLE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP BUT A PUNCH OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LIKELY BE THE TRIGGER
WHICH SETS OFF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ANYWHERE FROM ALONG THE NEBRASKA/WYOMING BORDER TO JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE
A DEVELOPING DRY LINE/STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OCCURS.
BEST GUESS AT THIS TIME IS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF QUICKLY BECOMING SEVERE. 00Z NAM SHOWING
UPWARDS OF 4000J/KG SB CAPE AT 21Z TODAY FROM AROUND CHADRON TO
SIDNEY. SHOULD THIS BE THE CASE THEN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING.

COOLER DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH 70S INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE.
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL
RETROGRADE WEST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. THE EXCEPTIONS
MAY BE ISOLATED TSTORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY
WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST WY
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH A WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SLIGHT ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 50 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH
25 TO 35 MPH FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY
DECREASING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
WYOMING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND 50 KT WINDS...MAINLY IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING WHERE GRASSES AND OTHER QUICK TO DRY VEGETATION IS SUPPORTIVE
OF RAPID FIRE GROWTH. UNSEASONABLY STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL COMBINE WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITIES TO PRODUCE EXTREME FIRE
CONDITIONS TODAY...PARTICULARLY OVER PORTIONS OF CARBON COUNTY AND
FAR WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY WHERE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY BUT
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL MAKE FOR
MARGINAL FIRE CONDITIONS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR WYZ301-302-304-310.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...SML/MAJ




000
FXUS65 KCYS 271154
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
554 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONE MORE HOT DAY FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
TODAY...THEN COOLER READINGS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE VERY WARM AIR TODAY. IN FACT
WIND SPEEDS WILL APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH
OF CARBON COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR GREATER. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE VERY LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES...AND WITH THAT COMES AN EXTREME RISK FOR RAPIDLY SPREADING
WILDFIRE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING DUE TO THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

SWITCHING FROM FIRE DANGER IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HOT AND HUMID
AIR INTO THE PANHANDLE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP BUT A PUNCH OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LIKELY BE THE TRIGGER
WHICH SETS OFF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ANYWHERE FROM ALONG THE NEBRASKA/WYOMING BORDER TO JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE
A DEVELOPING DRY LINE/STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OCCURS.
BEST GUESS AT THIS TIME IS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF QUICKLY BECOMING SEVERE. 00Z NAM SHOWING
UPWARDS OF 4000J/KG SB CAPE AT 21Z TODAY FROM AROUND CHADRON TO
SIDNEY. SHOULD THIS BE THE CASE THEN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING.

COOLER DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH 70S INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE.
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL
RETROGRADE WEST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. THE EXCEPTIONS
MAY BE ISOLATED TSTORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY
WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST WY
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH A WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SLIGHT ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 50 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH
25 TO 35 MPH FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY
DECREASING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
WYOMING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND 50 KT WINDS...MAINLY IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING WHERE GRASSES AND OTHER QUICK TO DRY VEGETATION IS SUPPORTIVE
OF RAPID FIRE GROWTH. UNSEASONABLY STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL COMBINE WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITIES TO PRODUCE EXTREME FIRE
CONDITIONS TODAY...PARTICULARLY OVER PORTIONS OF CARBON COUNTY AND
FAR WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY WHERE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY BUT
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL MAKE FOR
MARGINAL FIRE CONDITIONS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR WYZ301-302-304-310.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...SML/MAJ




000
FXUS65 KCYS 271154
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
554 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONE MORE HOT DAY FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
TODAY...THEN COOLER READINGS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE VERY WARM AIR TODAY. IN FACT
WIND SPEEDS WILL APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH
OF CARBON COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR GREATER. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE VERY LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES...AND WITH THAT COMES AN EXTREME RISK FOR RAPIDLY SPREADING
WILDFIRE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING DUE TO THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

SWITCHING FROM FIRE DANGER IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HOT AND HUMID
AIR INTO THE PANHANDLE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP BUT A PUNCH OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LIKELY BE THE TRIGGER
WHICH SETS OFF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ANYWHERE FROM ALONG THE NEBRASKA/WYOMING BORDER TO JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE
A DEVELOPING DRY LINE/STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OCCURS.
BEST GUESS AT THIS TIME IS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF QUICKLY BECOMING SEVERE. 00Z NAM SHOWING
UPWARDS OF 4000J/KG SB CAPE AT 21Z TODAY FROM AROUND CHADRON TO
SIDNEY. SHOULD THIS BE THE CASE THEN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING.

COOLER DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH 70S INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE.
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL
RETROGRADE WEST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. THE EXCEPTIONS
MAY BE ISOLATED TSTORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY
WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST WY
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH A WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SLIGHT ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 50 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH
25 TO 35 MPH FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY
DECREASING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
WYOMING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND 50 KT WINDS...MAINLY IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING WHERE GRASSES AND OTHER QUICK TO DRY VEGETATION IS SUPPORTIVE
OF RAPID FIRE GROWTH. UNSEASONABLY STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL COMBINE WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITIES TO PRODUCE EXTREME FIRE
CONDITIONS TODAY...PARTICULARLY OVER PORTIONS OF CARBON COUNTY AND
FAR WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY WHERE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY BUT
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL MAKE FOR
MARGINAL FIRE CONDITIONS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR WYZ301-302-304-310.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...SML/MAJ




000
FXUS65 KCYS 271154
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
554 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONE MORE HOT DAY FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
TODAY...THEN COOLER READINGS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE VERY WARM AIR TODAY. IN FACT
WIND SPEEDS WILL APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH
OF CARBON COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR GREATER. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE VERY LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES...AND WITH THAT COMES AN EXTREME RISK FOR RAPIDLY SPREADING
WILDFIRE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING DUE TO THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

SWITCHING FROM FIRE DANGER IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HOT AND HUMID
AIR INTO THE PANHANDLE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP BUT A PUNCH OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LIKELY BE THE TRIGGER
WHICH SETS OFF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ANYWHERE FROM ALONG THE NEBRASKA/WYOMING BORDER TO JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE
A DEVELOPING DRY LINE/STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OCCURS.
BEST GUESS AT THIS TIME IS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF QUICKLY BECOMING SEVERE. 00Z NAM SHOWING
UPWARDS OF 4000J/KG SB CAPE AT 21Z TODAY FROM AROUND CHADRON TO
SIDNEY. SHOULD THIS BE THE CASE THEN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING.

COOLER DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH 70S INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE.
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL
RETROGRADE WEST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. THE EXCEPTIONS
MAY BE ISOLATED TSTORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY
WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST WY
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH A WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SLIGHT ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 50 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH
25 TO 35 MPH FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY
DECREASING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
WYOMING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND 50 KT WINDS...MAINLY IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING WHERE GRASSES AND OTHER QUICK TO DRY VEGETATION IS SUPPORTIVE
OF RAPID FIRE GROWTH. UNSEASONABLY STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL COMBINE WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITIES TO PRODUCE EXTREME FIRE
CONDITIONS TODAY...PARTICULARLY OVER PORTIONS OF CARBON COUNTY AND
FAR WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY WHERE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY BUT
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL MAKE FOR
MARGINAL FIRE CONDITIONS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR WYZ301-302-304-310.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...SML/MAJ




000
FXUS63 KUNR 271059
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
459 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED AN INTENSE MIDLEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. AN MCS WAS JUST EAST OF THE CWA AND WAS
BEING AIDED BY A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW. AT
THE SURFACE A LOW WAS OVER CNTRL WY WITH AN EXTENSION TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS ERN MT. THE MCS TO OUR NORTHEAST HAS TRIGGERED
GRAVITY WAVES PER THE KUDX WSR-88D AND THESE WERE PROPAGATING TO
THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE BLKHLS...HELPING TO MAINTAIN A MOIST
EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

FOR TODAY AND TNGT THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO ERN MT WITH A POTENT
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH (-3SD H5 ANOMALIES) EJECTING ACROSS THE CWA.
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT COMBINED WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND BUOYANCY
WILL LEAD TO SCT SEVERE TSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A LEE TROUGH/
DRYLINE EARLY THIS AFTN OVER NERN WY AND THEN PROGRESSING ACROSS
WRN SD LATE THIS AFTN AND EVNG. A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE (+3SD
850MB T ANOMALIES) ALSO WILL RESULT IN HOT WEATHER AGAIN TODAY...
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE
AREA TNGT. THIS WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS NERN WY...SEE FIRE WX DISC BELOW. TSTORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF
THE CWA BY 09Z.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN ND TUESDAY AND THEN NORTH OF MN
BY WEDS MRNG. THIS WILL PLACE THE CWA UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
COLD ADVECTION FOR TUES...LEADING TO RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE NRN 2/3 OF THE AREA. BASED ON THE STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF 5
TO 7 FOR WESTERLY 850-MB WINDS ACROSS NWRN SD...WILL ISSUE A HIGH
WIND WATCH FOR TUES FOR THE PLAINS OF NWRN SD. WINDS WILL STILL BE
GUSTY TUES NGT BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...SOME
WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS MAY GET CLOSE TO NWRN SD TUES...BUT EXPECT
THEM TO STAY NORTH GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...RESULTING IN MAINLY
DRY WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
MAY RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
CWA THURSDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE SLIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 458 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH TS AS
WELL AS LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MT/ND TNGT AND TUES. AHEAD OF
THE LOW...VERY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO NERN
WY. THE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES
WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTN/EVNG. ISOLD-SCT TSRA
ALSO WILL DEVELOP FROM 18-21Z...AND COULD RESULT IN DRY LIGHTNING
BEFORE THEY MOVE INTO WRN SD. FROM 21-03Z...A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS NERN WY AND BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. BECAUSE OF
THE RECENT DRYING OF FUELS...THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER NERN WY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     SDZ001-002-012>014-073.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
     WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE
FIRE WEATHER...BUNKERS




000
FXUS63 KUNR 271059
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
459 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED AN INTENSE MIDLEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. AN MCS WAS JUST EAST OF THE CWA AND WAS
BEING AIDED BY A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW. AT
THE SURFACE A LOW WAS OVER CNTRL WY WITH AN EXTENSION TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS ERN MT. THE MCS TO OUR NORTHEAST HAS TRIGGERED
GRAVITY WAVES PER THE KUDX WSR-88D AND THESE WERE PROPAGATING TO
THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE BLKHLS...HELPING TO MAINTAIN A MOIST
EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

FOR TODAY AND TNGT THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO ERN MT WITH A POTENT
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH (-3SD H5 ANOMALIES) EJECTING ACROSS THE CWA.
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT COMBINED WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND BUOYANCY
WILL LEAD TO SCT SEVERE TSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A LEE TROUGH/
DRYLINE EARLY THIS AFTN OVER NERN WY AND THEN PROGRESSING ACROSS
WRN SD LATE THIS AFTN AND EVNG. A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE (+3SD
850MB T ANOMALIES) ALSO WILL RESULT IN HOT WEATHER AGAIN TODAY...
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE
AREA TNGT. THIS WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS NERN WY...SEE FIRE WX DISC BELOW. TSTORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF
THE CWA BY 09Z.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN ND TUESDAY AND THEN NORTH OF MN
BY WEDS MRNG. THIS WILL PLACE THE CWA UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
COLD ADVECTION FOR TUES...LEADING TO RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE NRN 2/3 OF THE AREA. BASED ON THE STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF 5
TO 7 FOR WESTERLY 850-MB WINDS ACROSS NWRN SD...WILL ISSUE A HIGH
WIND WATCH FOR TUES FOR THE PLAINS OF NWRN SD. WINDS WILL STILL BE
GUSTY TUES NGT BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...SOME
WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS MAY GET CLOSE TO NWRN SD TUES...BUT EXPECT
THEM TO STAY NORTH GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...RESULTING IN MAINLY
DRY WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
MAY RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
CWA THURSDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE SLIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 458 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH TS AS
WELL AS LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MT/ND TNGT AND TUES. AHEAD OF
THE LOW...VERY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO NERN
WY. THE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES
WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTN/EVNG. ISOLD-SCT TSRA
ALSO WILL DEVELOP FROM 18-21Z...AND COULD RESULT IN DRY LIGHTNING
BEFORE THEY MOVE INTO WRN SD. FROM 21-03Z...A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS NERN WY AND BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. BECAUSE OF
THE RECENT DRYING OF FUELS...THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER NERN WY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     SDZ001-002-012>014-073.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
     WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE
FIRE WEATHER...BUNKERS



000
FXUS63 KUNR 271059
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
459 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED AN INTENSE MIDLEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. AN MCS WAS JUST EAST OF THE CWA AND WAS
BEING AIDED BY A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW. AT
THE SURFACE A LOW WAS OVER CNTRL WY WITH AN EXTENSION TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS ERN MT. THE MCS TO OUR NORTHEAST HAS TRIGGERED
GRAVITY WAVES PER THE KUDX WSR-88D AND THESE WERE PROPAGATING TO
THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE BLKHLS...HELPING TO MAINTAIN A MOIST
EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

FOR TODAY AND TNGT THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO ERN MT WITH A POTENT
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH (-3SD H5 ANOMALIES) EJECTING ACROSS THE CWA.
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT COMBINED WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND BUOYANCY
WILL LEAD TO SCT SEVERE TSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A LEE TROUGH/
DRYLINE EARLY THIS AFTN OVER NERN WY AND THEN PROGRESSING ACROSS
WRN SD LATE THIS AFTN AND EVNG. A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE (+3SD
850MB T ANOMALIES) ALSO WILL RESULT IN HOT WEATHER AGAIN TODAY...
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE
AREA TNGT. THIS WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS NERN WY...SEE FIRE WX DISC BELOW. TSTORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF
THE CWA BY 09Z.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN ND TUESDAY AND THEN NORTH OF MN
BY WEDS MRNG. THIS WILL PLACE THE CWA UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
COLD ADVECTION FOR TUES...LEADING TO RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE NRN 2/3 OF THE AREA. BASED ON THE STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF 5
TO 7 FOR WESTERLY 850-MB WINDS ACROSS NWRN SD...WILL ISSUE A HIGH
WIND WATCH FOR TUES FOR THE PLAINS OF NWRN SD. WINDS WILL STILL BE
GUSTY TUES NGT BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...SOME
WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS MAY GET CLOSE TO NWRN SD TUES...BUT EXPECT
THEM TO STAY NORTH GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...RESULTING IN MAINLY
DRY WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
MAY RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
CWA THURSDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE SLIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 458 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH TS AS
WELL AS LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MT/ND TNGT AND TUES. AHEAD OF
THE LOW...VERY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO NERN
WY. THE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES
WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTN/EVNG. ISOLD-SCT TSRA
ALSO WILL DEVELOP FROM 18-21Z...AND COULD RESULT IN DRY LIGHTNING
BEFORE THEY MOVE INTO WRN SD. FROM 21-03Z...A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS NERN WY AND BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. BECAUSE OF
THE RECENT DRYING OF FUELS...THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER NERN WY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     SDZ001-002-012>014-073.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
     WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE
FIRE WEATHER...BUNKERS




000
FXUS65 KRIW 270913
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
313 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

AN INTERESTING 24 HOURS IN STORE FOR THE STATE OF WYOMING AS A LARGE
AND STRONGLY FORCED TROUGH DIGS TO OUR WEST AND EVENTUALLY CLOSES
OFF AND STACKS OVER EASTERN MONTANA BY LATE THIS EVENING.

THERE WILL BE A NUMBER OF HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE
MOST WIDESPREAD IMPACT WILL BE ON FIRE WEATHER AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THEN ACCELERATES AS THE LOW CLOSES
OFF TO THE NORTH WITH WIDESPREAD WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MANY AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE TODAY...WITH THE
LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EXPECTED IN SWEETWATER COUNTY...WHERE WE
ALREADY HAVE A WILDFIRE...AND IN FREMONT...NATRONA AND SOUTHERN
JOHNSON COUNTIES. IN ADDITION...IT WILL BE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON.
STORMS FORMED IN AREAS THOUGHT TO BE TOO DRY YESTERDAY...WHICH
KICKED OFF SOME DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN SWEETWATER COUNTY. THERE COULD
ALSO BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON FOR AN ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORM...BUT AT THE VERY LEAST IT WILL BE DRY AND UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR A HIGH HAINES INDEX...WHICH MEANS THAT ANY LARGE FIRES
THAT MAY DEVELOP COULD BECOME PLUME DOMINATED.

FINALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL RAKE ACROSS THE STATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
FOR ABOUT HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY WHICH
MEANS A SUDDEN WIND SHIFT AND ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR FOR MOST AREAS
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE BRIDGER/OWL CREEK RANGES.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
DIPS SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS
OF 40KT THAT COULD ENCOURAGE LARGE HAIL...PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF
AN INCH INDICATING PLENTY OF FUEL FOR STRONGER STORMS WITH FLASH
FLOODING A POSSIBILITY IN MORE PRONE AREAS...AND PLENTY OF DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH THE SWIFT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ENCOURAGE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW
MORE ORGANIZED STORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS BUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LESS THAN IN THE BIGHORN BASIN AND
JOHNSON COUNTY.

IT WILL BE QUITE COOL BEHIND THE FRONT FOR JULY...WITH H7 TEMPS
PROJECTED TO DIP TO -2C IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING
YELLOWSTONE...WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO A SNOW LEVEL OF
7500FT...LUCKILY MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER AND DONE BY
THE TIME TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THERE COULD
REALISTICALLY BE SOME SNOW ABOVE 9000FT IN THE PARK TONIGHT.

SPEAKING OF COLD...THERE COULD BE SOME TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS THE WEST ON TUESDAY MORNING...INCLUDING AREAS OF THE UPPER
WIND RIVER BASIN...YELLOWSTONE...JACKSON VALLEY...AND STAR VALLEY.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE FAIRLY MILD ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH LOW HUMIDITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE QUITE A BIT CALMER AS WELL. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO
BE DRY BUT SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
DRY CONDITIONS WITH A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOME MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO WRAP
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH OVER THE WEEKEND
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH.

DISCUSSION...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE
DOMINANT UPPER HIGH SETTLING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK...AND HIGHER OVERALL HEIGHTS ACROSS WYOMING. A VERY DRY
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SO FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...THOUGH WINDS SHOULD BE
GENERALLY LIGHT.

A SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN WYOMING ON
SATURDAY...COMBINED WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MONSOONAL
MOISTURE BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FOUR
CORNERS HIGH. ISOLATED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY
CONFINED ALONG FAVORED MOUNTAIN/VALLEY BREEZE BOUNDARIES NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. RETURN SE FLOW AROUND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS MAY BRING BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS NORTH AND EASTERN WYOMING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHILE MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE WEST
AND NORTH. THIS WILL BRING A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS BY MONDAY WHILE SOME STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY JOHNSON COUNTY IN WHAT WILL BE THE
BEGINNINGS OF LATE NIGHT MCS ACTIVITY FURTHER EAST OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S
TO MID 90S ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASINS WITH MOSTLY 80S IN THE
WESTERN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE WEST THIS MORNING AND
EAST OF THE DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT MAINLY VCNTY AND NORTH OF A KJAC-
KWRL-KBYG LINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SFC SW WINDS AT
20-35KTS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT WITH THE STRONGER WINDS FROM VCNTY
KRKS-KCPR AND ALONG THE EAST SLOPES FROM VCNTY KTHP-KLND.
LLWS IN ADDITION TO CONVECTIVE WIND SHEAR MAY BE ENCOUNTERED
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT VCNTY KCOD-KBYG IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A
PREVAILING NORTHERLY SFC WIND AND SW WINDS 20-30KTS AT RIDGETOP
LEVEL. SFC WEST WINDS AT 20-30KTS WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WYOMING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. THE NORTHERN ABSAROKA AND BIGHORN RANGES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN FQTLY OBSCURED WITH SCT -SHRA/-SHSN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONES 280 281 283 285 AND 300 THROUGH 10PM
TONIGHT...

JUST ABOUT EVERY ELEMENT WORTHY OF A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE
PRESENT TODAY FROM WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND OVER 35 MPH ACROSS THE
AREA WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE MORE EXPOSED AND WIND
PRONE AREAS...TO LOW HUMIDITY...TO DRY THUNDERSTORMS AND A DRY COLD
FRONT. AREAS EXPECTED TO BE MOST AFFECTED WILL BE CASPER
DISPATCH...SOUTHERN CODY DISPATCH...AND RAWLINS DISPATCH AS THEY
WILL HAVE THE MOST TIME AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE HOT AND DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW. MOST OF THE WET THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE IN
TETON DISPATCH WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN CASPER
AND CODY DISPATCH WITH HAZARDS THAT RANGE FROM LARGE HAIL TO A
TORNADO...WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD. IT
WILL BE QUITE A BIT CALMER AND COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY
BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
STATE...WINDS WILL CALMER BUT A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ280-281-285-
300.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR WYZ283.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 270908
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
308 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONE MORE HOT DAY FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
TODAY...THEN COOLER READINGS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE VERY WARM AIR TODAY. IN FACT
WIND SPEEDS WILL APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH
OF CARBON COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR GREATER. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE VERY LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES...AND WITH THAT COMES AN EXTREME RISK FOR RAPIDLY SPREADING
WILDFIRE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING DUE TO THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

SWITCHING FROM FIRE DANGER IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HOT AND HUMID
AIR INTO THE PANHANDLE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP BUT A PUNCH OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LIKELY BE THE TRIGGER
WHICH SETS OFF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ANYWHERE FROM ALONG THE NEBRASKA/WYOMING BORDER TO JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE
A DEVELOPING DRY LINE/STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OCCURS.
BEST GUESS AT THIS TIME IS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF QUICKLY BECOMING SEVERE. 00Z NAM SHOWING
UPWARDS OF 4000J/KG SB CAPE AT 21Z TODAY FROM AROUND CHADRON TO
SIDNEY. SHOULD THIS BE THE CASE THEN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING.

COOLER DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH 70S INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE.
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL
RETROGRADE WEST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. THE EXCEPTIONS
MAY BE ISOLATED TSTORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY
WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST WY
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH A WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SLIGHT ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2015

STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 50 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH
25 TO 35 MPH FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 KT OR HIGHER...ESPECIALLY
FROM CHADRON TO SIDNEY EASTWARD. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY MOVE
EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING WHERE GRASSES AND OTHER QUICK TO DRY VEGETATION IS SUPPORTIVE
OF RAPID FIRE GROWTH. UNSEASONABLY STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL COMBINE WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITIES TO PRODUCE EXTREME FIRE
CONDITIONS TODAY...PARTICULARLY OVER PORTIONS OF CARBON COUNTY AND
FAR WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY WHERE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY BUT
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL MAKE FOR
MARGINAL FIRE CONDITIONS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR WYZ301-302-304-310.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...SML/MAJ



000
FXUS65 KCYS 270908
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
308 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONE MORE HOT DAY FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
TODAY...THEN COOLER READINGS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE VERY WARM AIR TODAY. IN FACT
WIND SPEEDS WILL APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH
OF CARBON COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR GREATER. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE VERY LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES...AND WITH THAT COMES AN EXTREME RISK FOR RAPIDLY SPREADING
WILDFIRE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING DUE TO THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

SWITCHING FROM FIRE DANGER IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HOT AND HUMID
AIR INTO THE PANHANDLE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP BUT A PUNCH OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LIKELY BE THE TRIGGER
WHICH SETS OFF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ANYWHERE FROM ALONG THE NEBRASKA/WYOMING BORDER TO JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE
A DEVELOPING DRY LINE/STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OCCURS.
BEST GUESS AT THIS TIME IS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF QUICKLY BECOMING SEVERE. 00Z NAM SHOWING
UPWARDS OF 4000J/KG SB CAPE AT 21Z TODAY FROM AROUND CHADRON TO
SIDNEY. SHOULD THIS BE THE CASE THEN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING.

COOLER DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH 70S INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE.
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL
RETROGRADE WEST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. THE EXCEPTIONS
MAY BE ISOLATED TSTORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY
WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST WY
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH A WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SLIGHT ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2015

STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 50 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH
25 TO 35 MPH FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 KT OR HIGHER...ESPECIALLY
FROM CHADRON TO SIDNEY EASTWARD. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY MOVE
EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING WHERE GRASSES AND OTHER QUICK TO DRY VEGETATION IS SUPPORTIVE
OF RAPID FIRE GROWTH. UNSEASONABLY STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL COMBINE WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITIES TO PRODUCE EXTREME FIRE
CONDITIONS TODAY...PARTICULARLY OVER PORTIONS OF CARBON COUNTY AND
FAR WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY WHERE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY BUT
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL MAKE FOR
MARGINAL FIRE CONDITIONS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR WYZ301-302-304-310.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...SML/MAJ




000
FXUS63 KUNR 270810
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
210 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED AN INTENSE MIDLEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. AN MCS WAS JUST EAST OF THE CWA AND WAS
BEING AIDED BY A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW. AT
THE SURFACE A LOW WAS OVER CNTRL WY WITH AN EXTENSION TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS ERN MT. THE MCS TO OUR NORTHEAST HAS TRIGGERED
GRAVITY WAVES PER THE KUDX WSR-88D AND THESE WERE PROPAGATING TO
THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE BLKHLS...HELPING TO MAINTAIN A MOIST
EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

FOR TODAY AND TNGT THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO ERN MT WITH A POTENT
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH (-3SD H5 ANOMALIES) EJECTING ACROSS THE CWA.
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT COMBINED WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND BUOYANCY
WILL LEAD TO SCT SEVERE TSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A LEE TROUGH/
DRYLINE EARLY THIS AFTN OVER NERN WY AND THEN PROGRESSING ACROSS
WRN SD LATE THIS AFTN AND EVNG. A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE (+3SD
850MB T ANOMALIES) ALSO WILL RESULT IN HOT WEATHER AGAIN TODAY...
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE
AREA TNGT. THIS WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS NERN WY...SEE FIRE WX DISC BELOW. TSTORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF
THE CWA BY 09Z.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN ND TUESDAY AND THEN NORTH OF MN
BY WEDS MRNG. THIS WILL PLACE THE CWA UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
COLD ADVECTION FOR TUES...LEADING TO RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE NRN 2/3 OF THE AREA. BASED ON THE STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF 5
TO 7 FOR WESTERLY 850-MB WINDS ACROSS NWRN SD...WILL ISSUE A HIGH
WIND WATCH FOR TUES FOR THE PLAINS OF NWRN SD. WINDS WILL STILL BE
GUSTY TUES NGT BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...SOME
WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS MAY GET CLOSE TO NWRN SD TUES...BUT EXPECT
THEM TO STAY NORTH GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...RESULTING IN MAINLY
DRY WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
MAY RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
CWA THURSDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE SLIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH TS AS WELL
AS LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MT/ND TNGT AND TUES. AHEAD OF
THE LOW...VERY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO NERN
WY. THE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES
WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTN/EVNG. ISOLD-SCT TSRA
ALSO WILL DEVELOP FROM 18-21Z...AND COULD RESULT IN DRY LIGHTNING
BEFORE THEY MOVE INTO WRN SD. FROM 21-03Z...A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS NERN WY AND BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. BECAUSE OF
THE RECENT DRYING OF FUELS...THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER NERN WY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-073.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
     WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE
FIRE WEATHER...BUNKERS




000
FXUS63 KUNR 270810
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
210 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED AN INTENSE MIDLEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. AN MCS WAS JUST EAST OF THE CWA AND WAS
BEING AIDED BY A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW. AT
THE SURFACE A LOW WAS OVER CNTRL WY WITH AN EXTENSION TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS ERN MT. THE MCS TO OUR NORTHEAST HAS TRIGGERED
GRAVITY WAVES PER THE KUDX WSR-88D AND THESE WERE PROPAGATING TO
THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE BLKHLS...HELPING TO MAINTAIN A MOIST
EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

FOR TODAY AND TNGT THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO ERN MT WITH A POTENT
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH (-3SD H5 ANOMALIES) EJECTING ACROSS THE CWA.
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT COMBINED WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND BUOYANCY
WILL LEAD TO SCT SEVERE TSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A LEE TROUGH/
DRYLINE EARLY THIS AFTN OVER NERN WY AND THEN PROGRESSING ACROSS
WRN SD LATE THIS AFTN AND EVNG. A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE (+3SD
850MB T ANOMALIES) ALSO WILL RESULT IN HOT WEATHER AGAIN TODAY...
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE
AREA TNGT. THIS WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS NERN WY...SEE FIRE WX DISC BELOW. TSTORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF
THE CWA BY 09Z.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN ND TUESDAY AND THEN NORTH OF MN
BY WEDS MRNG. THIS WILL PLACE THE CWA UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
COLD ADVECTION FOR TUES...LEADING TO RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE NRN 2/3 OF THE AREA. BASED ON THE STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF 5
TO 7 FOR WESTERLY 850-MB WINDS ACROSS NWRN SD...WILL ISSUE A HIGH
WIND WATCH FOR TUES FOR THE PLAINS OF NWRN SD. WINDS WILL STILL BE
GUSTY TUES NGT BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...SOME
WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS MAY GET CLOSE TO NWRN SD TUES...BUT EXPECT
THEM TO STAY NORTH GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...RESULTING IN MAINLY
DRY WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
MAY RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
CWA THURSDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE SLIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH TS AS WELL
AS LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MT/ND TNGT AND TUES. AHEAD OF
THE LOW...VERY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO NERN
WY. THE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES
WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTN/EVNG. ISOLD-SCT TSRA
ALSO WILL DEVELOP FROM 18-21Z...AND COULD RESULT IN DRY LIGHTNING
BEFORE THEY MOVE INTO WRN SD. FROM 21-03Z...A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS NERN WY AND BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. BECAUSE OF
THE RECENT DRYING OF FUELS...THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER NERN WY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-073.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
     WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE
FIRE WEATHER...BUNKERS



000
FXUS63 KUNR 270810
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
210 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED AN INTENSE MIDLEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. AN MCS WAS JUST EAST OF THE CWA AND WAS
BEING AIDED BY A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW. AT
THE SURFACE A LOW WAS OVER CNTRL WY WITH AN EXTENSION TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS ERN MT. THE MCS TO OUR NORTHEAST HAS TRIGGERED
GRAVITY WAVES PER THE KUDX WSR-88D AND THESE WERE PROPAGATING TO
THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE BLKHLS...HELPING TO MAINTAIN A MOIST
EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

FOR TODAY AND TNGT THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO ERN MT WITH A POTENT
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH (-3SD H5 ANOMALIES) EJECTING ACROSS THE CWA.
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT COMBINED WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND BUOYANCY
WILL LEAD TO SCT SEVERE TSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A LEE TROUGH/
DRYLINE EARLY THIS AFTN OVER NERN WY AND THEN PROGRESSING ACROSS
WRN SD LATE THIS AFTN AND EVNG. A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE (+3SD
850MB T ANOMALIES) ALSO WILL RESULT IN HOT WEATHER AGAIN TODAY...
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE
AREA TNGT. THIS WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS NERN WY...SEE FIRE WX DISC BELOW. TSTORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF
THE CWA BY 09Z.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN ND TUESDAY AND THEN NORTH OF MN
BY WEDS MRNG. THIS WILL PLACE THE CWA UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
COLD ADVECTION FOR TUES...LEADING TO RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE NRN 2/3 OF THE AREA. BASED ON THE STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF 5
TO 7 FOR WESTERLY 850-MB WINDS ACROSS NWRN SD...WILL ISSUE A HIGH
WIND WATCH FOR TUES FOR THE PLAINS OF NWRN SD. WINDS WILL STILL BE
GUSTY TUES NGT BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...SOME
WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS MAY GET CLOSE TO NWRN SD TUES...BUT EXPECT
THEM TO STAY NORTH GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...RESULTING IN MAINLY
DRY WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
MAY RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
CWA THURSDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE SLIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH TS AS WELL
AS LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MT/ND TNGT AND TUES. AHEAD OF
THE LOW...VERY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO NERN
WY. THE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES
WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTN/EVNG. ISOLD-SCT TSRA
ALSO WILL DEVELOP FROM 18-21Z...AND COULD RESULT IN DRY LIGHTNING
BEFORE THEY MOVE INTO WRN SD. FROM 21-03Z...A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS NERN WY AND BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. BECAUSE OF
THE RECENT DRYING OF FUELS...THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER NERN WY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-073.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
     WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE
FIRE WEATHER...BUNKERS



000
FXUS65 KCYS 270719
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
119 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MINOR UPDATE TO INCLUDE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR THE SOUTHERN NE
PANHANDLE AFTER 06Z. DUAL-POL RAINFALL ESTIMATES ARE IN THE AREA
OF 2-4 INCHES ROUGHLY ALONG A KIMBALL TO BROADWATER LINE FROM THE
CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK
WITH GOOD LLVL SATURATION OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS THAT ARE ALREADY TAKING SHAPE. HRRR SHOWS POCKETS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITY AS FAR WEST AS CYS...BUT BELIEVE WE WILL STAY
MIXED ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG AT BAY. HOWEVER WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN
THE MID 50S AMID SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW...WILL NEED TO MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

QUITE AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST AND NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEST.

CURRENTLY...WE HAVE A DRY LINE PUSHING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE DRY LINE...DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S
ARE BEING REPORTED IN SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING. AHEAD OF THIS
LINE...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE BEING OBSERVED. OUT
WEST IN CARBON COUNTY...GETTING WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AT RAWLINS
AND LOW 20 MPH RANGE DOWN BY DIXON. DECIDED TO KEEP THE CURRENT
RED FLAG WARNING GOING FOR FWZ 304 THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING.

STRONG WIND EVENT STILL ON TRACK FOR MONDAY AS A PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTHWESTERN
WYOMING. LATEST NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING US MIXING UP TO
NEAR 500MBS MONDAY WITH FORECAST WINDS AT THIS LEVEL OF 45-50KTS.
WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME HIGH WIND CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR WIND PRONE AREAS OF INTERSTATES 80 AND 25. PROBABLY OF MORE
SIGNIFICANCE IS WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT
ARE ALMOST CERTAIN TO HAPPEN MONDAY. FORECAST MIN HUMIDITIES OF 7
TO 15 PERCENT LOOK TO BE WIDESPREAD MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH POOR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED PREVIOUS FIRE
WEATHER WATCHES TO WARNINGS WHERE FUELS ARE REPORTED RECEPTIVE.

WHILE DEALING WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING...WE COULD BE DEALING WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
PANHANDLE AHEAD OF THAT FRONT. NAM FORECAST MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON FORECAST AROUND 2000J/KG.
FORECAST SHEAR 0-6KM AROUND 33KTS...CAN NOT RULE OUT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OUT THERE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. ESPECIALLY WITH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

PRETTY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS
ANCHORED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND KEEPS A DRY WESTERLY
MIDLVL FLOW OVER THE CWA.  TEMPS ON WED WILL BE COOL...HOWEVER WITH
A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...MIN RH VALUES WILL STILL DROP TO 10-15
PERCENT OVER CARBON COUNTY.  COULD BE AN ISOLATED STORM OVER THE
SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE EVENING AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE PLAINS PRODUCES CONVERGENCE.  WE WILL SEE 5-10 DEGREES OF
WARMING FOR THURS AND THEN LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  700-
500MB FLOW REMAINS WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE GFS
SHOWING PW VALUES REMAINING 0.25-0.50 INCHES...WHICH IS WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  CONVECTION WILL BE REALLY STYMIED IN
THIS PATTERN.  ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL DROP TO BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS
TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON ALL AFTNS...THE WEAK GRADIENTS
AND WINDS WILL LIKELY KEEP FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2015

STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUST TO AROUND 50 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
HAIL 1 INCH IN DIAMETER OR LARGER AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY
THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WESTERN CARBON COUNTY WITH WINDS EASING TEMPORARILY AFTER SUNSET.
WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL BECOME QUITE
STRONG MONDAY. EXPECT POOR OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES...ESPECIALLY
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS THESE WINDS INCREASE. A DRY COLD FRONT
IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
ARE LIKELY. COULD SEE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND DRY AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR WYZ301-302-304-310.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLH
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...GCC



000
FXUS65 KCYS 270719
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
119 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MINOR UPDATE TO INCLUDE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR THE SOUTHERN NE
PANHANDLE AFTER 06Z. DUAL-POL RAINFALL ESTIMATES ARE IN THE AREA
OF 2-4 INCHES ROUGHLY ALONG A KIMBALL TO BROADWATER LINE FROM THE
CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK
WITH GOOD LLVL SATURATION OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS THAT ARE ALREADY TAKING SHAPE. HRRR SHOWS POCKETS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITY AS FAR WEST AS CYS...BUT BELIEVE WE WILL STAY
MIXED ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG AT BAY. HOWEVER WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN
THE MID 50S AMID SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW...WILL NEED TO MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

QUITE AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST AND NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEST.

CURRENTLY...WE HAVE A DRY LINE PUSHING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE DRY LINE...DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S
ARE BEING REPORTED IN SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING. AHEAD OF THIS
LINE...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE BEING OBSERVED. OUT
WEST IN CARBON COUNTY...GETTING WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AT RAWLINS
AND LOW 20 MPH RANGE DOWN BY DIXON. DECIDED TO KEEP THE CURRENT
RED FLAG WARNING GOING FOR FWZ 304 THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING.

STRONG WIND EVENT STILL ON TRACK FOR MONDAY AS A PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTHWESTERN
WYOMING. LATEST NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING US MIXING UP TO
NEAR 500MBS MONDAY WITH FORECAST WINDS AT THIS LEVEL OF 45-50KTS.
WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME HIGH WIND CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR WIND PRONE AREAS OF INTERSTATES 80 AND 25. PROBABLY OF MORE
SIGNIFICANCE IS WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT
ARE ALMOST CERTAIN TO HAPPEN MONDAY. FORECAST MIN HUMIDITIES OF 7
TO 15 PERCENT LOOK TO BE WIDESPREAD MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH POOR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED PREVIOUS FIRE
WEATHER WATCHES TO WARNINGS WHERE FUELS ARE REPORTED RECEPTIVE.

WHILE DEALING WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING...WE COULD BE DEALING WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
PANHANDLE AHEAD OF THAT FRONT. NAM FORECAST MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON FORECAST AROUND 2000J/KG.
FORECAST SHEAR 0-6KM AROUND 33KTS...CAN NOT RULE OUT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OUT THERE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. ESPECIALLY WITH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

PRETTY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS
ANCHORED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND KEEPS A DRY WESTERLY
MIDLVL FLOW OVER THE CWA.  TEMPS ON WED WILL BE COOL...HOWEVER WITH
A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...MIN RH VALUES WILL STILL DROP TO 10-15
PERCENT OVER CARBON COUNTY.  COULD BE AN ISOLATED STORM OVER THE
SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE EVENING AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE PLAINS PRODUCES CONVERGENCE.  WE WILL SEE 5-10 DEGREES OF
WARMING FOR THURS AND THEN LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  700-
500MB FLOW REMAINS WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE GFS
SHOWING PW VALUES REMAINING 0.25-0.50 INCHES...WHICH IS WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  CONVECTION WILL BE REALLY STYMIED IN
THIS PATTERN.  ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL DROP TO BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS
TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON ALL AFTNS...THE WEAK GRADIENTS
AND WINDS WILL LIKELY KEEP FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2015

STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUST TO AROUND 50 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
HAIL 1 INCH IN DIAMETER OR LARGER AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY
THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WESTERN CARBON COUNTY WITH WINDS EASING TEMPORARILY AFTER SUNSET.
WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL BECOME QUITE
STRONG MONDAY. EXPECT POOR OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES...ESPECIALLY
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS THESE WINDS INCREASE. A DRY COLD FRONT
IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
ARE LIKELY. COULD SEE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND DRY AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR WYZ301-302-304-310.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLH
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...GCC



000
FXUS65 KCYS 270719
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
119 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MINOR UPDATE TO INCLUDE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR THE SOUTHERN NE
PANHANDLE AFTER 06Z. DUAL-POL RAINFALL ESTIMATES ARE IN THE AREA
OF 2-4 INCHES ROUGHLY ALONG A KIMBALL TO BROADWATER LINE FROM THE
CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK
WITH GOOD LLVL SATURATION OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS THAT ARE ALREADY TAKING SHAPE. HRRR SHOWS POCKETS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITY AS FAR WEST AS CYS...BUT BELIEVE WE WILL STAY
MIXED ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG AT BAY. HOWEVER WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN
THE MID 50S AMID SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW...WILL NEED TO MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

QUITE AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST AND NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEST.

CURRENTLY...WE HAVE A DRY LINE PUSHING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE DRY LINE...DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S
ARE BEING REPORTED IN SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING. AHEAD OF THIS
LINE...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE BEING OBSERVED. OUT
WEST IN CARBON COUNTY...GETTING WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AT RAWLINS
AND LOW 20 MPH RANGE DOWN BY DIXON. DECIDED TO KEEP THE CURRENT
RED FLAG WARNING GOING FOR FWZ 304 THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING.

STRONG WIND EVENT STILL ON TRACK FOR MONDAY AS A PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTHWESTERN
WYOMING. LATEST NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING US MIXING UP TO
NEAR 500MBS MONDAY WITH FORECAST WINDS AT THIS LEVEL OF 45-50KTS.
WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME HIGH WIND CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR WIND PRONE AREAS OF INTERSTATES 80 AND 25. PROBABLY OF MORE
SIGNIFICANCE IS WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT
ARE ALMOST CERTAIN TO HAPPEN MONDAY. FORECAST MIN HUMIDITIES OF 7
TO 15 PERCENT LOOK TO BE WIDESPREAD MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH POOR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED PREVIOUS FIRE
WEATHER WATCHES TO WARNINGS WHERE FUELS ARE REPORTED RECEPTIVE.

WHILE DEALING WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING...WE COULD BE DEALING WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
PANHANDLE AHEAD OF THAT FRONT. NAM FORECAST MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON FORECAST AROUND 2000J/KG.
FORECAST SHEAR 0-6KM AROUND 33KTS...CAN NOT RULE OUT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OUT THERE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. ESPECIALLY WITH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

PRETTY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS
ANCHORED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND KEEPS A DRY WESTERLY
MIDLVL FLOW OVER THE CWA.  TEMPS ON WED WILL BE COOL...HOWEVER WITH
A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...MIN RH VALUES WILL STILL DROP TO 10-15
PERCENT OVER CARBON COUNTY.  COULD BE AN ISOLATED STORM OVER THE
SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE EVENING AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE PLAINS PRODUCES CONVERGENCE.  WE WILL SEE 5-10 DEGREES OF
WARMING FOR THURS AND THEN LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  700-
500MB FLOW REMAINS WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE GFS
SHOWING PW VALUES REMAINING 0.25-0.50 INCHES...WHICH IS WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  CONVECTION WILL BE REALLY STYMIED IN
THIS PATTERN.  ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL DROP TO BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS
TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON ALL AFTNS...THE WEAK GRADIENTS
AND WINDS WILL LIKELY KEEP FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2015

STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUST TO AROUND 50 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
HAIL 1 INCH IN DIAMETER OR LARGER AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY
THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WESTERN CARBON COUNTY WITH WINDS EASING TEMPORARILY AFTER SUNSET.
WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL BECOME QUITE
STRONG MONDAY. EXPECT POOR OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES...ESPECIALLY
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS THESE WINDS INCREASE. A DRY COLD FRONT
IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
ARE LIKELY. COULD SEE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND DRY AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR WYZ301-302-304-310.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLH
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...GCC



000
FXUS65 KCYS 270719
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
119 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MINOR UPDATE TO INCLUDE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR THE SOUTHERN NE
PANHANDLE AFTER 06Z. DUAL-POL RAINFALL ESTIMATES ARE IN THE AREA
OF 2-4 INCHES ROUGHLY ALONG A KIMBALL TO BROADWATER LINE FROM THE
CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK
WITH GOOD LLVL SATURATION OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS THAT ARE ALREADY TAKING SHAPE. HRRR SHOWS POCKETS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITY AS FAR WEST AS CYS...BUT BELIEVE WE WILL STAY
MIXED ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG AT BAY. HOWEVER WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN
THE MID 50S AMID SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW...WILL NEED TO MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

QUITE AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST AND NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEST.

CURRENTLY...WE HAVE A DRY LINE PUSHING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE DRY LINE...DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S
ARE BEING REPORTED IN SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING. AHEAD OF THIS
LINE...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE BEING OBSERVED. OUT
WEST IN CARBON COUNTY...GETTING WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AT RAWLINS
AND LOW 20 MPH RANGE DOWN BY DIXON. DECIDED TO KEEP THE CURRENT
RED FLAG WARNING GOING FOR FWZ 304 THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING.

STRONG WIND EVENT STILL ON TRACK FOR MONDAY AS A PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTHWESTERN
WYOMING. LATEST NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING US MIXING UP TO
NEAR 500MBS MONDAY WITH FORECAST WINDS AT THIS LEVEL OF 45-50KTS.
WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME HIGH WIND CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR WIND PRONE AREAS OF INTERSTATES 80 AND 25. PROBABLY OF MORE
SIGNIFICANCE IS WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT
ARE ALMOST CERTAIN TO HAPPEN MONDAY. FORECAST MIN HUMIDITIES OF 7
TO 15 PERCENT LOOK TO BE WIDESPREAD MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH POOR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED PREVIOUS FIRE
WEATHER WATCHES TO WARNINGS WHERE FUELS ARE REPORTED RECEPTIVE.

WHILE DEALING WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING...WE COULD BE DEALING WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
PANHANDLE AHEAD OF THAT FRONT. NAM FORECAST MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON FORECAST AROUND 2000J/KG.
FORECAST SHEAR 0-6KM AROUND 33KTS...CAN NOT RULE OUT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OUT THERE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. ESPECIALLY WITH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

PRETTY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS
ANCHORED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND KEEPS A DRY WESTERLY
MIDLVL FLOW OVER THE CWA.  TEMPS ON WED WILL BE COOL...HOWEVER WITH
A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...MIN RH VALUES WILL STILL DROP TO 10-15
PERCENT OVER CARBON COUNTY.  COULD BE AN ISOLATED STORM OVER THE
SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE EVENING AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE PLAINS PRODUCES CONVERGENCE.  WE WILL SEE 5-10 DEGREES OF
WARMING FOR THURS AND THEN LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  700-
500MB FLOW REMAINS WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE GFS
SHOWING PW VALUES REMAINING 0.25-0.50 INCHES...WHICH IS WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  CONVECTION WILL BE REALLY STYMIED IN
THIS PATTERN.  ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL DROP TO BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS
TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON ALL AFTNS...THE WEAK GRADIENTS
AND WINDS WILL LIKELY KEEP FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2015

STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUST TO AROUND 50 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
HAIL 1 INCH IN DIAMETER OR LARGER AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY
THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WESTERN CARBON COUNTY WITH WINDS EASING TEMPORARILY AFTER SUNSET.
WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL BECOME QUITE
STRONG MONDAY. EXPECT POOR OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES...ESPECIALLY
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS THESE WINDS INCREASE. A DRY COLD FRONT
IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
ARE LIKELY. COULD SEE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND DRY AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR WYZ301-302-304-310.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLH
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...GCC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 270529
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1129 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE UPPER LOW PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW...WITH
LEAD SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN SW FLOW EJECTING OUT OF THE CNTRL
ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...LOW IS LOCATED ALONG THE MT/ND BORDER WITH
TROF EXTENDING SWD THROUGH THE NEB PANHANDLE...AND VIS/RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS DEVELOPING CU/SCT TSTMS ALONG THE TROF OVER THE NEB
PANHANDLE.

THIS AFTN/TONIGHT...NARROW CORRIDOR OF MLCAPE OF 2500-3500J/KG EXITS
FROM THE ERN SLOPES OF THE BLKHLS INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE...ALONG THE
SFC TROF...WHERE CU/SCT TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING. EXPECT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AS INDICATED BY MOST CAMS...WITH
AFORMENTIONED SHORT WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES. WITH
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-45KTS AND DCAPE AROUND 1800J/KG...A FEW
SVR STORMS POSSIBLE WITH A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FIRE OVER THE BLKHLS AND MOVE INTO THE PLAINS.
MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE/EXIT THE CWFA BEFORE SUNSET THIS EVE.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EWD INTO WRN MT BY LATE AFTN.
SFC TROF WILL DEEPEN OVER ERN WY/ERN MT...WITH A DEEPLY MIXED AMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROF AND PLUMMETING DEWPOINTS. GUSTY SW WINDS
WILL DEVELOP WITH RH`S DIPPING WELL INTO THE TEENS ACRS NERN WY FOR
A HEIGHTENED FIRE WX THREAT...SEE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW. MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT OVER WRN SD FOR ISOLD-SCT TSRA TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTN ALONG THE SFC TROF. SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR
ROTATING UPDRAFTS/SVR STORMS ACRS WRN SD...PUSHING INTO CNTRL SD
LATE IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVE. CDFNT WILL THEN BLAST THROUGH THE CWFA
MONDAY AFTN PRODUCING GUSTY NW WINDS...AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY
BECOME NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING ALONG THE
CANADIAN/ND BORDER TUESDAY...WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ACROSS
THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONGER WINDS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW SD WHERE ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY
WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT NW SD IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH TS
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE FA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR
CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH TS AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL AS
ISOLD TS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AHEAD OF
THE LOW...VERY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO NERN
WY. THE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES... AND LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTN/EVNG.
ISOLD TSRA ALSO MAY DEVELOP MONDAY AFTN...AND COULD RESULT IN DRY
LIGHTNING. ON MONDAY EVNG A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NERN WY
AND BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WITH INCREASINGLY DRY FUELS...THE
NORTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS WILL SEE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY AFTN/EVNG.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...13



000
FXUS63 KUNR 270529
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1129 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE UPPER LOW PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW...WITH
LEAD SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN SW FLOW EJECTING OUT OF THE CNTRL
ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...LOW IS LOCATED ALONG THE MT/ND BORDER WITH
TROF EXTENDING SWD THROUGH THE NEB PANHANDLE...AND VIS/RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS DEVELOPING CU/SCT TSTMS ALONG THE TROF OVER THE NEB
PANHANDLE.

THIS AFTN/TONIGHT...NARROW CORRIDOR OF MLCAPE OF 2500-3500J/KG EXITS
FROM THE ERN SLOPES OF THE BLKHLS INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE...ALONG THE
SFC TROF...WHERE CU/SCT TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING. EXPECT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AS INDICATED BY MOST CAMS...WITH
AFORMENTIONED SHORT WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES. WITH
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-45KTS AND DCAPE AROUND 1800J/KG...A FEW
SVR STORMS POSSIBLE WITH A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FIRE OVER THE BLKHLS AND MOVE INTO THE PLAINS.
MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE/EXIT THE CWFA BEFORE SUNSET THIS EVE.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EWD INTO WRN MT BY LATE AFTN.
SFC TROF WILL DEEPEN OVER ERN WY/ERN MT...WITH A DEEPLY MIXED AMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROF AND PLUMMETING DEWPOINTS. GUSTY SW WINDS
WILL DEVELOP WITH RH`S DIPPING WELL INTO THE TEENS ACRS NERN WY FOR
A HEIGHTENED FIRE WX THREAT...SEE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW. MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT OVER WRN SD FOR ISOLD-SCT TSRA TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTN ALONG THE SFC TROF. SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR
ROTATING UPDRAFTS/SVR STORMS ACRS WRN SD...PUSHING INTO CNTRL SD
LATE IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVE. CDFNT WILL THEN BLAST THROUGH THE CWFA
MONDAY AFTN PRODUCING GUSTY NW WINDS...AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY
BECOME NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING ALONG THE
CANADIAN/ND BORDER TUESDAY...WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ACROSS
THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONGER WINDS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW SD WHERE ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY
WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT NW SD IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH TS
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE FA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR
CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH TS AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL AS
ISOLD TS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AHEAD OF
THE LOW...VERY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO NERN
WY. THE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES... AND LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTN/EVNG.
ISOLD TSRA ALSO MAY DEVELOP MONDAY AFTN...AND COULD RESULT IN DRY
LIGHTNING. ON MONDAY EVNG A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NERN WY
AND BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WITH INCREASINGLY DRY FUELS...THE
NORTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS WILL SEE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY AFTN/EVNG.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...13




000
FXUS65 KRIW 270520 AAA
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1120 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...

FIRE ZONE 283...WHICH INCLUDES MOST OF THE LOWLANDS OF FREMONT
COUNTY HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR MONDAY NOW THAT
THE VEGETATION HAS BEEN DECLARED CRITICALLY DRY AND READY TO
CARRY FIRE BY OUR LAND MANAGEMENT PARTNERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 145 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

WV IMAGERY SHOWING CONTINUING LOW AMPLITUDE TROF RIDGE TROF PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS WITH CNTRL HIGH LOCATED OVR TX/NM. MINOR
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY OUT OF NRN WY INTO SERN
MT...WHILE LARGE WCST UPR TROF IS STARTING TO KICK EWD. SFC HAS WEAK
MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS NWRN WY WITH OTHERWISE WEAK SFC P GRAD
ACROSS THE STATE.

RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACROSS FIRE WX ZONES 280...281 AND
300...NATRONA COUNTY AND SRN JOHNSON COUNTY BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY AS
HAINES VALUES RANGE BETWEEN 5 AND 6 ALONG WITH LOW RH VALUES. MIN RH
VALUES WILL LIKELY DROP AND HOVER IN THE LOWER/MID TEENS...WITH
WINDS GUSTING FROM 15 TO NEAR 25 MPH AT TIMES....TO 40 MPH ON MONDAY
WHICH WILL BE THE MOST EXTREME FIRE WX DAY.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...RIDGING...DRYING AND GOOD CAPPING IN
CONTROL ACROSS MOST OF THE FA WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDER
POSSIBLE OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS/BIGHORN BASIN
IN THE NW/N. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIE OFF QUICKLY EARLY THIS
EVENING. NOT MUCH MOVEMENT FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
TODAY/TONIGHT.

MONDAY...BUILDING LOW P AND STRENGTHENING OF FROM WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS NCNTRL TO SWRN WY...EVENTUALLY BEING PUSHED ACROSS THE FA
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LARGE UPR TROF HEADED EWD ACROSS THE NW/NRN
TIER OF STATES. AS CYCLOGENSIS TAKES PLACE FROM NCNTRL WY INTO SERN
MT AND THE WRN DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY...THE SFC P GRAD WILL INCREASE
RAPIDLY ALONG WITH A GREAT INCREASE IN WIND SPEED ALOFT. SFC WINDS
WILL ACCORDINGLY INCREASE QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING AS RELATIVELY
STRONG WINDS ARE BROUGHT TO THE SFC ADIABATICALLY FROM ALOFT AND
COMBINE WITH THE INCREASING P GRAD TO GIVE A BROAD AREA OF W TO SW
SFC WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH AT
TIMES ACROSS THE SRN AND SERN ZONES. THIS WILL GREATLY AND QUICKLY
INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER INTO THE EXTREME CATEGORY OVER AREAS OF THE
SERN FA WHERE FUELS ARE CONSIDERED CRITICAL. OTHERWISE AND
ELSEWHERE...ANOTHER DRY DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE FA EXCEPT FOR THE
W/NW ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON AS SOME MODEST MOISTURE IS INJECTED INTO
THE REGION FROM AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPR TROF...THEN EVENTUALLY
OVR CODY FOOTHILLS AND BIGHORN BASIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. INCREASING
AND HIGH SHEAR TO AS MUCH AS 50 KTS THRU 6 KM...AND MODEST ML CAPE
RANGING FROM 250 TO 800 J/KG WILL YIELD A FEW STRONG/BORDERLINE
SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF A JACKSON TO CODY LINE WHERE BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN...SMALL/MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE. LATER...AS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EWD OVR THE
BIGHORN BASIN...STRONGER WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
WYOMING THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN UNSEASONMABLY STRONG PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH WHERE
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A
THREAT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA AND MONTANA CLIPPING NORTHERN WYOMING MONDAY NIGHT
DRIVING A COLD FRONT SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  THE COLD FRONT
WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST.  THE SOUTH WILL REMAIN WINDY ON TUESDAY
WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA.  COOLER AND DRY WEATHER WILL THEN BE IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING.  WINDS MAY PICK UP ON FRIDAY AND VERY LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE AFTERNOON.  FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PICK UP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING
IT NORTH AND THE EAST INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN WYOMING BRINGING AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTHWEST.

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY EFFECT AREAS BETWEEN KRKS
AND KCPR THROUGH 12Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP TO THE
BREEZY/WINDY CATEGORIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
FORECAST AREAS FROM MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY...WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY NORTH OF A KAFO TO KWRL LINE AFTER 18Z.

.FIRE WEATHER...

...ZONE 283 HAS JOINED ZONES 280 281 285 AND 300 IN THE RED FLAG
WARNING FOR MONDAY...

HOT...DRY...BREEZY AND UNSTABLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE
TODAY...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE MORE EXTREME ON MONDAY AHEAD
OF A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALL ZONES WITH CRITICALLY DRY
FUELS...MAINLY NATRONA AND JOHNSON COUNTIES...HAVE A RED FLAG
WARNING IN EFFECT THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY...ENHANCED FIRE DANGER EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST
OF THE STATE...EVEN IN AREAS THAT ARE NOT UNDER A RED FLAG WARNING.
IT IS NOT SAFE TO BURN OR DO ANYTHING THAT MAY EMIT SPARKS OUTDOORS
TODAY OR MONDAY. WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIE OFF MONDAY EVENING TO LESS
THAN CRITICAL AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR FIRE STARTS WILL EXIST DUE TO LIGHTNING
STRIKES ACROSS THOSE AREAS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS EXIST...MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST TODAY...NORTHWEST AND NORTH TOMORROW. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS THAT TRAVEL FAR
FROM THE PARENT STORM...ESPECIALLY THROUGH FROM THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE BIGHORN BASIN.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT MONDAY FOR WYZ280-281-285-300.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM MDT MONDAY FOR WYZ283.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...C.BAKER
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN



000
FXUS65 KRIW 270520 AAA
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1120 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...

FIRE ZONE 283...WHICH INCLUDES MOST OF THE LOWLANDS OF FREMONT
COUNTY HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR MONDAY NOW THAT
THE VEGETATION HAS BEEN DECLARED CRITICALLY DRY AND READY TO
CARRY FIRE BY OUR LAND MANAGEMENT PARTNERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 145 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

WV IMAGERY SHOWING CONTINUING LOW AMPLITUDE TROF RIDGE TROF PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS WITH CNTRL HIGH LOCATED OVR TX/NM. MINOR
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY OUT OF NRN WY INTO SERN
MT...WHILE LARGE WCST UPR TROF IS STARTING TO KICK EWD. SFC HAS WEAK
MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS NWRN WY WITH OTHERWISE WEAK SFC P GRAD
ACROSS THE STATE.

RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACROSS FIRE WX ZONES 280...281 AND
300...NATRONA COUNTY AND SRN JOHNSON COUNTY BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY AS
HAINES VALUES RANGE BETWEEN 5 AND 6 ALONG WITH LOW RH VALUES. MIN RH
VALUES WILL LIKELY DROP AND HOVER IN THE LOWER/MID TEENS...WITH
WINDS GUSTING FROM 15 TO NEAR 25 MPH AT TIMES....TO 40 MPH ON MONDAY
WHICH WILL BE THE MOST EXTREME FIRE WX DAY.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...RIDGING...DRYING AND GOOD CAPPING IN
CONTROL ACROSS MOST OF THE FA WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDER
POSSIBLE OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS/BIGHORN BASIN
IN THE NW/N. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIE OFF QUICKLY EARLY THIS
EVENING. NOT MUCH MOVEMENT FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
TODAY/TONIGHT.

MONDAY...BUILDING LOW P AND STRENGTHENING OF FROM WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS NCNTRL TO SWRN WY...EVENTUALLY BEING PUSHED ACROSS THE FA
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LARGE UPR TROF HEADED EWD ACROSS THE NW/NRN
TIER OF STATES. AS CYCLOGENSIS TAKES PLACE FROM NCNTRL WY INTO SERN
MT AND THE WRN DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY...THE SFC P GRAD WILL INCREASE
RAPIDLY ALONG WITH A GREAT INCREASE IN WIND SPEED ALOFT. SFC WINDS
WILL ACCORDINGLY INCREASE QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING AS RELATIVELY
STRONG WINDS ARE BROUGHT TO THE SFC ADIABATICALLY FROM ALOFT AND
COMBINE WITH THE INCREASING P GRAD TO GIVE A BROAD AREA OF W TO SW
SFC WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH AT
TIMES ACROSS THE SRN AND SERN ZONES. THIS WILL GREATLY AND QUICKLY
INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER INTO THE EXTREME CATEGORY OVER AREAS OF THE
SERN FA WHERE FUELS ARE CONSIDERED CRITICAL. OTHERWISE AND
ELSEWHERE...ANOTHER DRY DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE FA EXCEPT FOR THE
W/NW ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON AS SOME MODEST MOISTURE IS INJECTED INTO
THE REGION FROM AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPR TROF...THEN EVENTUALLY
OVR CODY FOOTHILLS AND BIGHORN BASIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. INCREASING
AND HIGH SHEAR TO AS MUCH AS 50 KTS THRU 6 KM...AND MODEST ML CAPE
RANGING FROM 250 TO 800 J/KG WILL YIELD A FEW STRONG/BORDERLINE
SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF A JACKSON TO CODY LINE WHERE BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN...SMALL/MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE. LATER...AS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EWD OVR THE
BIGHORN BASIN...STRONGER WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
WYOMING THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN UNSEASONMABLY STRONG PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH WHERE
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A
THREAT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA AND MONTANA CLIPPING NORTHERN WYOMING MONDAY NIGHT
DRIVING A COLD FRONT SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  THE COLD FRONT
WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST.  THE SOUTH WILL REMAIN WINDY ON TUESDAY
WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA.  COOLER AND DRY WEATHER WILL THEN BE IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING.  WINDS MAY PICK UP ON FRIDAY AND VERY LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE AFTERNOON.  FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PICK UP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING
IT NORTH AND THE EAST INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN WYOMING BRINGING AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTHWEST.

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY EFFECT AREAS BETWEEN KRKS
AND KCPR THROUGH 12Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP TO THE
BREEZY/WINDY CATEGORIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
FORECAST AREAS FROM MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY...WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY NORTH OF A KAFO TO KWRL LINE AFTER 18Z.

.FIRE WEATHER...

...ZONE 283 HAS JOINED ZONES 280 281 285 AND 300 IN THE RED FLAG
WARNING FOR MONDAY...

HOT...DRY...BREEZY AND UNSTABLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE
TODAY...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE MORE EXTREME ON MONDAY AHEAD
OF A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALL ZONES WITH CRITICALLY DRY
FUELS...MAINLY NATRONA AND JOHNSON COUNTIES...HAVE A RED FLAG
WARNING IN EFFECT THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY...ENHANCED FIRE DANGER EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST
OF THE STATE...EVEN IN AREAS THAT ARE NOT UNDER A RED FLAG WARNING.
IT IS NOT SAFE TO BURN OR DO ANYTHING THAT MAY EMIT SPARKS OUTDOORS
TODAY OR MONDAY. WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIE OFF MONDAY EVENING TO LESS
THAN CRITICAL AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR FIRE STARTS WILL EXIST DUE TO LIGHTNING
STRIKES ACROSS THOSE AREAS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS EXIST...MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST TODAY...NORTHWEST AND NORTH TOMORROW. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS THAT TRAVEL FAR
FROM THE PARENT STORM...ESPECIALLY THROUGH FROM THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE BIGHORN BASIN.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT MONDAY FOR WYZ280-281-285-300.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM MDT MONDAY FOR WYZ283.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...C.BAKER
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN




000
FXUS65 KRIW 270520 AAA
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1120 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...

FIRE ZONE 283...WHICH INCLUDES MOST OF THE LOWLANDS OF FREMONT
COUNTY HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR MONDAY NOW THAT
THE VEGETATION HAS BEEN DECLARED CRITICALLY DRY AND READY TO
CARRY FIRE BY OUR LAND MANAGEMENT PARTNERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 145 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

WV IMAGERY SHOWING CONTINUING LOW AMPLITUDE TROF RIDGE TROF PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS WITH CNTRL HIGH LOCATED OVR TX/NM. MINOR
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY OUT OF NRN WY INTO SERN
MT...WHILE LARGE WCST UPR TROF IS STARTING TO KICK EWD. SFC HAS WEAK
MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS NWRN WY WITH OTHERWISE WEAK SFC P GRAD
ACROSS THE STATE.

RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACROSS FIRE WX ZONES 280...281 AND
300...NATRONA COUNTY AND SRN JOHNSON COUNTY BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY AS
HAINES VALUES RANGE BETWEEN 5 AND 6 ALONG WITH LOW RH VALUES. MIN RH
VALUES WILL LIKELY DROP AND HOVER IN THE LOWER/MID TEENS...WITH
WINDS GUSTING FROM 15 TO NEAR 25 MPH AT TIMES....TO 40 MPH ON MONDAY
WHICH WILL BE THE MOST EXTREME FIRE WX DAY.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...RIDGING...DRYING AND GOOD CAPPING IN
CONTROL ACROSS MOST OF THE FA WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDER
POSSIBLE OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS/BIGHORN BASIN
IN THE NW/N. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIE OFF QUICKLY EARLY THIS
EVENING. NOT MUCH MOVEMENT FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
TODAY/TONIGHT.

MONDAY...BUILDING LOW P AND STRENGTHENING OF FROM WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS NCNTRL TO SWRN WY...EVENTUALLY BEING PUSHED ACROSS THE FA
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LARGE UPR TROF HEADED EWD ACROSS THE NW/NRN
TIER OF STATES. AS CYCLOGENSIS TAKES PLACE FROM NCNTRL WY INTO SERN
MT AND THE WRN DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY...THE SFC P GRAD WILL INCREASE
RAPIDLY ALONG WITH A GREAT INCREASE IN WIND SPEED ALOFT. SFC WINDS
WILL ACCORDINGLY INCREASE QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING AS RELATIVELY
STRONG WINDS ARE BROUGHT TO THE SFC ADIABATICALLY FROM ALOFT AND
COMBINE WITH THE INCREASING P GRAD TO GIVE A BROAD AREA OF W TO SW
SFC WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH AT
TIMES ACROSS THE SRN AND SERN ZONES. THIS WILL GREATLY AND QUICKLY
INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER INTO THE EXTREME CATEGORY OVER AREAS OF THE
SERN FA WHERE FUELS ARE CONSIDERED CRITICAL. OTHERWISE AND
ELSEWHERE...ANOTHER DRY DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE FA EXCEPT FOR THE
W/NW ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON AS SOME MODEST MOISTURE IS INJECTED INTO
THE REGION FROM AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPR TROF...THEN EVENTUALLY
OVR CODY FOOTHILLS AND BIGHORN BASIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. INCREASING
AND HIGH SHEAR TO AS MUCH AS 50 KTS THRU 6 KM...AND MODEST ML CAPE
RANGING FROM 250 TO 800 J/KG WILL YIELD A FEW STRONG/BORDERLINE
SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF A JACKSON TO CODY LINE WHERE BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN...SMALL/MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE. LATER...AS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EWD OVR THE
BIGHORN BASIN...STRONGER WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
WYOMING THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN UNSEASONMABLY STRONG PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH WHERE
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A
THREAT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA AND MONTANA CLIPPING NORTHERN WYOMING MONDAY NIGHT
DRIVING A COLD FRONT SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  THE COLD FRONT
WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST.  THE SOUTH WILL REMAIN WINDY ON TUESDAY
WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA.  COOLER AND DRY WEATHER WILL THEN BE IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING.  WINDS MAY PICK UP ON FRIDAY AND VERY LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE AFTERNOON.  FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PICK UP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING
IT NORTH AND THE EAST INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN WYOMING BRINGING AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTHWEST.

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY EFFECT AREAS BETWEEN KRKS
AND KCPR THROUGH 12Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP TO THE
BREEZY/WINDY CATEGORIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
FORECAST AREAS FROM MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY...WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY NORTH OF A KAFO TO KWRL LINE AFTER 18Z.

.FIRE WEATHER...

...ZONE 283 HAS JOINED ZONES 280 281 285 AND 300 IN THE RED FLAG
WARNING FOR MONDAY...

HOT...DRY...BREEZY AND UNSTABLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE
TODAY...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE MORE EXTREME ON MONDAY AHEAD
OF A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALL ZONES WITH CRITICALLY DRY
FUELS...MAINLY NATRONA AND JOHNSON COUNTIES...HAVE A RED FLAG
WARNING IN EFFECT THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY...ENHANCED FIRE DANGER EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST
OF THE STATE...EVEN IN AREAS THAT ARE NOT UNDER A RED FLAG WARNING.
IT IS NOT SAFE TO BURN OR DO ANYTHING THAT MAY EMIT SPARKS OUTDOORS
TODAY OR MONDAY. WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIE OFF MONDAY EVENING TO LESS
THAN CRITICAL AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR FIRE STARTS WILL EXIST DUE TO LIGHTNING
STRIKES ACROSS THOSE AREAS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS EXIST...MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST TODAY...NORTHWEST AND NORTH TOMORROW. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS THAT TRAVEL FAR
FROM THE PARENT STORM...ESPECIALLY THROUGH FROM THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE BIGHORN BASIN.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT MONDAY FOR WYZ280-281-285-300.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM MDT MONDAY FOR WYZ283.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...C.BAKER
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN



000
FXUS65 KRIW 270520 AAA
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1120 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...

FIRE ZONE 283...WHICH INCLUDES MOST OF THE LOWLANDS OF FREMONT
COUNTY HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR MONDAY NOW THAT
THE VEGETATION HAS BEEN DECLARED CRITICALLY DRY AND READY TO
CARRY FIRE BY OUR LAND MANAGEMENT PARTNERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 145 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

WV IMAGERY SHOWING CONTINUING LOW AMPLITUDE TROF RIDGE TROF PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS WITH CNTRL HIGH LOCATED OVR TX/NM. MINOR
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY OUT OF NRN WY INTO SERN
MT...WHILE LARGE WCST UPR TROF IS STARTING TO KICK EWD. SFC HAS WEAK
MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS NWRN WY WITH OTHERWISE WEAK SFC P GRAD
ACROSS THE STATE.

RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACROSS FIRE WX ZONES 280...281 AND
300...NATRONA COUNTY AND SRN JOHNSON COUNTY BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY AS
HAINES VALUES RANGE BETWEEN 5 AND 6 ALONG WITH LOW RH VALUES. MIN RH
VALUES WILL LIKELY DROP AND HOVER IN THE LOWER/MID TEENS...WITH
WINDS GUSTING FROM 15 TO NEAR 25 MPH AT TIMES....TO 40 MPH ON MONDAY
WHICH WILL BE THE MOST EXTREME FIRE WX DAY.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...RIDGING...DRYING AND GOOD CAPPING IN
CONTROL ACROSS MOST OF THE FA WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDER
POSSIBLE OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS/BIGHORN BASIN
IN THE NW/N. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIE OFF QUICKLY EARLY THIS
EVENING. NOT MUCH MOVEMENT FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
TODAY/TONIGHT.

MONDAY...BUILDING LOW P AND STRENGTHENING OF FROM WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS NCNTRL TO SWRN WY...EVENTUALLY BEING PUSHED ACROSS THE FA
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LARGE UPR TROF HEADED EWD ACROSS THE NW/NRN
TIER OF STATES. AS CYCLOGENSIS TAKES PLACE FROM NCNTRL WY INTO SERN
MT AND THE WRN DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY...THE SFC P GRAD WILL INCREASE
RAPIDLY ALONG WITH A GREAT INCREASE IN WIND SPEED ALOFT. SFC WINDS
WILL ACCORDINGLY INCREASE QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING AS RELATIVELY
STRONG WINDS ARE BROUGHT TO THE SFC ADIABATICALLY FROM ALOFT AND
COMBINE WITH THE INCREASING P GRAD TO GIVE A BROAD AREA OF W TO SW
SFC WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH AT
TIMES ACROSS THE SRN AND SERN ZONES. THIS WILL GREATLY AND QUICKLY
INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER INTO THE EXTREME CATEGORY OVER AREAS OF THE
SERN FA WHERE FUELS ARE CONSIDERED CRITICAL. OTHERWISE AND
ELSEWHERE...ANOTHER DRY DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE FA EXCEPT FOR THE
W/NW ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON AS SOME MODEST MOISTURE IS INJECTED INTO
THE REGION FROM AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPR TROF...THEN EVENTUALLY
OVR CODY FOOTHILLS AND BIGHORN BASIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. INCREASING
AND HIGH SHEAR TO AS MUCH AS 50 KTS THRU 6 KM...AND MODEST ML CAPE
RANGING FROM 250 TO 800 J/KG WILL YIELD A FEW STRONG/BORDERLINE
SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF A JACKSON TO CODY LINE WHERE BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN...SMALL/MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE. LATER...AS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EWD OVR THE
BIGHORN BASIN...STRONGER WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
WYOMING THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN UNSEASONMABLY STRONG PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH WHERE
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A
THREAT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA AND MONTANA CLIPPING NORTHERN WYOMING MONDAY NIGHT
DRIVING A COLD FRONT SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  THE COLD FRONT
WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST.  THE SOUTH WILL REMAIN WINDY ON TUESDAY
WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA.  COOLER AND DRY WEATHER WILL THEN BE IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING.  WINDS MAY PICK UP ON FRIDAY AND VERY LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE AFTERNOON.  FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PICK UP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING
IT NORTH AND THE EAST INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN WYOMING BRINGING AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTHWEST.

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY EFFECT AREAS BETWEEN KRKS
AND KCPR THROUGH 12Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP TO THE
BREEZY/WINDY CATEGORIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
FORECAST AREAS FROM MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY...WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY NORTH OF A KAFO TO KWRL LINE AFTER 18Z.

.FIRE WEATHER...

...ZONE 283 HAS JOINED ZONES 280 281 285 AND 300 IN THE RED FLAG
WARNING FOR MONDAY...

HOT...DRY...BREEZY AND UNSTABLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE
TODAY...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE MORE EXTREME ON MONDAY AHEAD
OF A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALL ZONES WITH CRITICALLY DRY
FUELS...MAINLY NATRONA AND JOHNSON COUNTIES...HAVE A RED FLAG
WARNING IN EFFECT THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY...ENHANCED FIRE DANGER EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST
OF THE STATE...EVEN IN AREAS THAT ARE NOT UNDER A RED FLAG WARNING.
IT IS NOT SAFE TO BURN OR DO ANYTHING THAT MAY EMIT SPARKS OUTDOORS
TODAY OR MONDAY. WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIE OFF MONDAY EVENING TO LESS
THAN CRITICAL AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR FIRE STARTS WILL EXIST DUE TO LIGHTNING
STRIKES ACROSS THOSE AREAS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS EXIST...MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST TODAY...NORTHWEST AND NORTH TOMORROW. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS THAT TRAVEL FAR
FROM THE PARENT STORM...ESPECIALLY THROUGH FROM THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE BIGHORN BASIN.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT MONDAY FOR WYZ280-281-285-300.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM MDT MONDAY FOR WYZ283.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...C.BAKER
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN




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