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000
FXUS65 KRIW 050548
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1151 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATE...ADDED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY (ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT)

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF WYOMING THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...THE NORTH WILL BE GENERALLY DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
WARMER...BEFORE A COMBINATION OF A CANADIAN COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WYOMING...AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT BASIN...WILL COMBINE FOR
RATHER WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER...COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION WILL
COOL TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE CENTERED AROUND THE BIGHORN
MOUNTAINS...WHILE MOST OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS CAN EXPECT RAINFALL
OF A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL RECEIVE LESS RAINFALL. AREAS
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS...SUCH AS BUFFALO...CASPER... LANDER...CODY
AND DUBOIS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF RECEIVING RAINFALL OF A HALF
INCH OR MORE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
AS MOISTURE SAGS TOO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE AND DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO FILTER INTO NORTHWEST WYOMING. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
ON MONDAY WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING WHERE MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN MORE PLENTIFUL AND INSTABILITY MORE FAVORABLE. EXPECT THIS
AREA TO PUSH FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST DURING MONDAY EVENING.
LIFTED INDICES AND LAPSE RATES INDICATE THAT CONVECTION WILL BE
LIMITED OR NON-EXISTENT IN JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES. CONVECTION
LOOKS TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE IN THE AFTERNOON WOULD INTENSIFY CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH-HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
SLIDE SOUTH EARLY WEDNESDAY SLOWING THE WARMING TREND THAT HAD BEGUN
THE PREVIOUS DAY. OVERALL...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A TYPICAL SUMMER
DAY IN WYOMING...ALBEIT COOLER THAN NORMAL...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION THAT BEGINS MIDDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONE CAVEAT
HERE WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE JUICY AIR AND FAVORABLE SHEAR
PROFILE IN JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES BEHIND THE WEAK BOUNDARY.
LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE ANOTHER WEAK SURGE OF COOL AIR EARLY
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO BACK TO
THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY THE SOUTHWEST WITH WARMER AIR SURGING INTO
THE STATE. THIS WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LOW SET TO REACH THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY/FRIDAY. AS THIS LOW MOVES INLAND...
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO OR BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH WARMER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ENVELOPING WYOMING. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. FOR NOW...BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A DRY SLOT ACROSS WYOMING SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW
APPROACHES. COULD BE WARM...WINDY...AND DRY FRIDAY AND MORE SO
SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS COULD
BE SOMETHING TO FOLLOW FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IF FUELS WERE TO
BECOME CRITICAL.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO NORTHERN WYOMING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN BORDER BTWN 12Z-15Z AND TO NEAR A VCNTY KRIW-KCPR LINE
BY 18Z.  SCT-NMRS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SW THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG WITH LCL MVFR CONDITIONS AND
HIGHER MTN OBSCURATIONS.  THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WY WHERE THE FRONT WILL MEET THE MOISTURE
SURGING IN FROM THE SW.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG ACROSS
NATRONA (VCNTY KCPR) AND SOUTHERN JOHNSON COUNTIES WITH HEAVY RAIN
AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AND AREAS OF MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...EAST OF THE DIVIDE SUNDAY
AFTN/EVE...INTO KCOD-KBYG AROUND 20Z AND VCNTY KLND-KRIW-KCPR AROUND
2Z MONDAY.  THESE LOWER CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO SW WYOMING
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF WYOMING THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...THE NORTH WILL BE GENERALLY DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
WARMER...BEFORE A COMBINATION OF A CANADIAN COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WYOMING...AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT BASIN...WILL COMBINE FOR
RATHER WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER...COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION WILL
COOL TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE CENTERED AROUND THE BIGHORN
MOUNTAINS...WHILE MOST OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS CAN EXPECT RAINFALL
OF A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL RECEIVE LESS RAINFALL. AREAS
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS...SUCH AS BUFFALO...CASPER... LANDER...CODY
AND DUBOIS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF RECEIVING RAINFALL OF A HALF
INCH OR MORE.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...CNJ
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER




000
FXUS65 KRIW 050548
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1151 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATE...ADDED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY (ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT)

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF WYOMING THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...THE NORTH WILL BE GENERALLY DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
WARMER...BEFORE A COMBINATION OF A CANADIAN COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WYOMING...AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT BASIN...WILL COMBINE FOR
RATHER WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER...COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION WILL
COOL TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE CENTERED AROUND THE BIGHORN
MOUNTAINS...WHILE MOST OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS CAN EXPECT RAINFALL
OF A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL RECEIVE LESS RAINFALL. AREAS
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS...SUCH AS BUFFALO...CASPER... LANDER...CODY
AND DUBOIS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF RECEIVING RAINFALL OF A HALF
INCH OR MORE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
AS MOISTURE SAGS TOO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE AND DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO FILTER INTO NORTHWEST WYOMING. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
ON MONDAY WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING WHERE MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN MORE PLENTIFUL AND INSTABILITY MORE FAVORABLE. EXPECT THIS
AREA TO PUSH FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST DURING MONDAY EVENING.
LIFTED INDICES AND LAPSE RATES INDICATE THAT CONVECTION WILL BE
LIMITED OR NON-EXISTENT IN JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES. CONVECTION
LOOKS TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE IN THE AFTERNOON WOULD INTENSIFY CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH-HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
SLIDE SOUTH EARLY WEDNESDAY SLOWING THE WARMING TREND THAT HAD BEGUN
THE PREVIOUS DAY. OVERALL...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A TYPICAL SUMMER
DAY IN WYOMING...ALBEIT COOLER THAN NORMAL...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION THAT BEGINS MIDDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONE CAVEAT
HERE WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE JUICY AIR AND FAVORABLE SHEAR
PROFILE IN JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES BEHIND THE WEAK BOUNDARY.
LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE ANOTHER WEAK SURGE OF COOL AIR EARLY
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO BACK TO
THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY THE SOUTHWEST WITH WARMER AIR SURGING INTO
THE STATE. THIS WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LOW SET TO REACH THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY/FRIDAY. AS THIS LOW MOVES INLAND...
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO OR BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH WARMER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ENVELOPING WYOMING. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. FOR NOW...BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A DRY SLOT ACROSS WYOMING SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW
APPROACHES. COULD BE WARM...WINDY...AND DRY FRIDAY AND MORE SO
SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS COULD
BE SOMETHING TO FOLLOW FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IF FUELS WERE TO
BECOME CRITICAL.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO NORTHERN WYOMING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN BORDER BTWN 12Z-15Z AND TO NEAR A VCNTY KRIW-KCPR LINE
BY 18Z.  SCT-NMRS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SW THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG WITH LCL MVFR CONDITIONS AND
HIGHER MTN OBSCURATIONS.  THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WY WHERE THE FRONT WILL MEET THE MOISTURE
SURGING IN FROM THE SW.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG ACROSS
NATRONA (VCNTY KCPR) AND SOUTHERN JOHNSON COUNTIES WITH HEAVY RAIN
AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AND AREAS OF MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...EAST OF THE DIVIDE SUNDAY
AFTN/EVE...INTO KCOD-KBYG AROUND 20Z AND VCNTY KLND-KRIW-KCPR AROUND
2Z MONDAY.  THESE LOWER CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO SW WYOMING
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF WYOMING THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...THE NORTH WILL BE GENERALLY DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
WARMER...BEFORE A COMBINATION OF A CANADIAN COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WYOMING...AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT BASIN...WILL COMBINE FOR
RATHER WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER...COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION WILL
COOL TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE CENTERED AROUND THE BIGHORN
MOUNTAINS...WHILE MOST OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS CAN EXPECT RAINFALL
OF A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL RECEIVE LESS RAINFALL. AREAS
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS...SUCH AS BUFFALO...CASPER... LANDER...CODY
AND DUBOIS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF RECEIVING RAINFALL OF A HALF
INCH OR MORE.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...CNJ
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER


  [top]

000
FXUS63 KUNR 050510
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1110 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1003MB SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL MONTANA...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE UNR
CWA...WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 2500-3500J/KG AND NO CIN. DESPITE THE
LACK OF CIN OVER THE REGION...SATELLITE REVEALS MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH ONLY AN AGITATED CU FIELD OVER THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO FIRE OFF SO FAR.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD FIRE OFF
THE BLACK HILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS FIRING OFF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. THE CAPE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...SO ANYTHING THAT DOES FIRE
OFF DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. STORMS SHOULD DIE
DOWN THIS EVENING AFTER THE SUN SETS JUST IN TIME FOR THE
FIREWORKS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STORMS THAT FIRE OFF IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LLJ WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND KEEP
STORMS GOING MOST OF THE NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IN MONTANA SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LATEST NWP GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN
THE COLD FRONT A BIT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MORE STORMIER
SOLUTION FOR THE CWA AS THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING
PEAK HEATING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL EXIT THE AREA BY MON
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. LOOKING TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...A TROF IS STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW COULD BRING AT LEAST
LOW POPS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE EARLY IN THE WEEK...RISING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH SUN
MORNING...EXPECTED FOR POCKETS OF SMOKE FROM FIREWORKS. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH SCT
SHRA AND TS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER WESTERN SD. SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER NE
WY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CONDS LIKELY THERE. STRONG NW
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 050510
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1110 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1003MB SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL MONTANA...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE UNR
CWA...WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 2500-3500J/KG AND NO CIN. DESPITE THE
LACK OF CIN OVER THE REGION...SATELLITE REVEALS MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH ONLY AN AGITATED CU FIELD OVER THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO FIRE OFF SO FAR.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD FIRE OFF
THE BLACK HILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS FIRING OFF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. THE CAPE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...SO ANYTHING THAT DOES FIRE
OFF DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. STORMS SHOULD DIE
DOWN THIS EVENING AFTER THE SUN SETS JUST IN TIME FOR THE
FIREWORKS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STORMS THAT FIRE OFF IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LLJ WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND KEEP
STORMS GOING MOST OF THE NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IN MONTANA SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LATEST NWP GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN
THE COLD FRONT A BIT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MORE STORMIER
SOLUTION FOR THE CWA AS THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING
PEAK HEATING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL EXIT THE AREA BY MON
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. LOOKING TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...A TROF IS STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW COULD BRING AT LEAST
LOW POPS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE EARLY IN THE WEEK...RISING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH SUN
MORNING...EXPECTED FOR POCKETS OF SMOKE FROM FIREWORKS. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH SCT
SHRA AND TS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER WESTERN SD. SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER NE
WY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CONDS LIKELY THERE. STRONG NW
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 050510
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1110 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1003MB SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL MONTANA...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE UNR
CWA...WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 2500-3500J/KG AND NO CIN. DESPITE THE
LACK OF CIN OVER THE REGION...SATELLITE REVEALS MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH ONLY AN AGITATED CU FIELD OVER THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO FIRE OFF SO FAR.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD FIRE OFF
THE BLACK HILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS FIRING OFF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. THE CAPE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...SO ANYTHING THAT DOES FIRE
OFF DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. STORMS SHOULD DIE
DOWN THIS EVENING AFTER THE SUN SETS JUST IN TIME FOR THE
FIREWORKS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STORMS THAT FIRE OFF IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LLJ WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND KEEP
STORMS GOING MOST OF THE NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IN MONTANA SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LATEST NWP GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN
THE COLD FRONT A BIT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MORE STORMIER
SOLUTION FOR THE CWA AS THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING
PEAK HEATING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL EXIT THE AREA BY MON
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. LOOKING TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...A TROF IS STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW COULD BRING AT LEAST
LOW POPS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE EARLY IN THE WEEK...RISING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH SUN
MORNING...EXPECTED FOR POCKETS OF SMOKE FROM FIREWORKS. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH SCT
SHRA AND TS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER WESTERN SD. SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER NE
WY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CONDS LIKELY THERE. STRONG NW
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 050510
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1110 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1003MB SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL MONTANA...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE UNR
CWA...WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 2500-3500J/KG AND NO CIN. DESPITE THE
LACK OF CIN OVER THE REGION...SATELLITE REVEALS MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH ONLY AN AGITATED CU FIELD OVER THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO FIRE OFF SO FAR.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD FIRE OFF
THE BLACK HILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS FIRING OFF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. THE CAPE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...SO ANYTHING THAT DOES FIRE
OFF DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. STORMS SHOULD DIE
DOWN THIS EVENING AFTER THE SUN SETS JUST IN TIME FOR THE
FIREWORKS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STORMS THAT FIRE OFF IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LLJ WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND KEEP
STORMS GOING MOST OF THE NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IN MONTANA SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LATEST NWP GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN
THE COLD FRONT A BIT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MORE STORMIER
SOLUTION FOR THE CWA AS THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING
PEAK HEATING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL EXIT THE AREA BY MON
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. LOOKING TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...A TROF IS STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW COULD BRING AT LEAST
LOW POPS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE EARLY IN THE WEEK...RISING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH SUN
MORNING...EXPECTED FOR POCKETS OF SMOKE FROM FIREWORKS. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH SCT
SHRA AND TS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER WESTERN SD. SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER NE
WY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CONDS LIKELY THERE. STRONG NW
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 050510
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1110 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1003MB SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL MONTANA...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE UNR
CWA...WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 2500-3500J/KG AND NO CIN. DESPITE THE
LACK OF CIN OVER THE REGION...SATELLITE REVEALS MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH ONLY AN AGITATED CU FIELD OVER THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO FIRE OFF SO FAR.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD FIRE OFF
THE BLACK HILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS FIRING OFF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. THE CAPE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...SO ANYTHING THAT DOES FIRE
OFF DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. STORMS SHOULD DIE
DOWN THIS EVENING AFTER THE SUN SETS JUST IN TIME FOR THE
FIREWORKS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STORMS THAT FIRE OFF IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LLJ WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND KEEP
STORMS GOING MOST OF THE NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IN MONTANA SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LATEST NWP GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN
THE COLD FRONT A BIT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MORE STORMIER
SOLUTION FOR THE CWA AS THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING
PEAK HEATING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL EXIT THE AREA BY MON
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. LOOKING TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...A TROF IS STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW COULD BRING AT LEAST
LOW POPS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE EARLY IN THE WEEK...RISING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH SUN
MORNING...EXPECTED FOR POCKETS OF SMOKE FROM FIREWORKS. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH SCT
SHRA AND TS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER WESTERN SD. SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER NE
WY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CONDS LIKELY THERE. STRONG NW
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 050510
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1110 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1003MB SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL MONTANA...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE UNR
CWA...WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 2500-3500J/KG AND NO CIN. DESPITE THE
LACK OF CIN OVER THE REGION...SATELLITE REVEALS MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH ONLY AN AGITATED CU FIELD OVER THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO FIRE OFF SO FAR.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD FIRE OFF
THE BLACK HILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS FIRING OFF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. THE CAPE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...SO ANYTHING THAT DOES FIRE
OFF DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. STORMS SHOULD DIE
DOWN THIS EVENING AFTER THE SUN SETS JUST IN TIME FOR THE
FIREWORKS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STORMS THAT FIRE OFF IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LLJ WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND KEEP
STORMS GOING MOST OF THE NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IN MONTANA SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LATEST NWP GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN
THE COLD FRONT A BIT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MORE STORMIER
SOLUTION FOR THE CWA AS THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING
PEAK HEATING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL EXIT THE AREA BY MON
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. LOOKING TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...A TROF IS STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW COULD BRING AT LEAST
LOW POPS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE EARLY IN THE WEEK...RISING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH SUN
MORNING...EXPECTED FOR POCKETS OF SMOKE FROM FIREWORKS. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH SCT
SHRA AND TS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER WESTERN SD. SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER NE
WY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CONDS LIKELY THERE. STRONG NW
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 050510
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1110 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1003MB SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL MONTANA...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE UNR
CWA...WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 2500-3500J/KG AND NO CIN. DESPITE THE
LACK OF CIN OVER THE REGION...SATELLITE REVEALS MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH ONLY AN AGITATED CU FIELD OVER THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO FIRE OFF SO FAR.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD FIRE OFF
THE BLACK HILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS FIRING OFF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. THE CAPE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...SO ANYTHING THAT DOES FIRE
OFF DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. STORMS SHOULD DIE
DOWN THIS EVENING AFTER THE SUN SETS JUST IN TIME FOR THE
FIREWORKS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STORMS THAT FIRE OFF IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LLJ WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND KEEP
STORMS GOING MOST OF THE NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IN MONTANA SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LATEST NWP GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN
THE COLD FRONT A BIT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MORE STORMIER
SOLUTION FOR THE CWA AS THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING
PEAK HEATING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL EXIT THE AREA BY MON
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. LOOKING TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...A TROF IS STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW COULD BRING AT LEAST
LOW POPS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE EARLY IN THE WEEK...RISING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH SUN
MORNING...EXPECTED FOR POCKETS OF SMOKE FROM FIREWORKS. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH SCT
SHRA AND TS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER WESTERN SD. SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER NE
WY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CONDS LIKELY THERE. STRONG NW
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 050510
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1110 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1003MB SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL MONTANA...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE UNR
CWA...WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 2500-3500J/KG AND NO CIN. DESPITE THE
LACK OF CIN OVER THE REGION...SATELLITE REVEALS MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH ONLY AN AGITATED CU FIELD OVER THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO FIRE OFF SO FAR.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD FIRE OFF
THE BLACK HILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS FIRING OFF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. THE CAPE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...SO ANYTHING THAT DOES FIRE
OFF DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. STORMS SHOULD DIE
DOWN THIS EVENING AFTER THE SUN SETS JUST IN TIME FOR THE
FIREWORKS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STORMS THAT FIRE OFF IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LLJ WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND KEEP
STORMS GOING MOST OF THE NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IN MONTANA SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LATEST NWP GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN
THE COLD FRONT A BIT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MORE STORMIER
SOLUTION FOR THE CWA AS THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING
PEAK HEATING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL EXIT THE AREA BY MON
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. LOOKING TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...A TROF IS STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW COULD BRING AT LEAST
LOW POPS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE EARLY IN THE WEEK...RISING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH SUN
MORNING...EXPECTED FOR POCKETS OF SMOKE FROM FIREWORKS. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH SCT
SHRA AND TS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER WESTERN SD. SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER NE
WY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CONDS LIKELY THERE. STRONG NW
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 050510
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1110 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1003MB SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL MONTANA...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE UNR
CWA...WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 2500-3500J/KG AND NO CIN. DESPITE THE
LACK OF CIN OVER THE REGION...SATELLITE REVEALS MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH ONLY AN AGITATED CU FIELD OVER THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO FIRE OFF SO FAR.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD FIRE OFF
THE BLACK HILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS FIRING OFF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. THE CAPE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...SO ANYTHING THAT DOES FIRE
OFF DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. STORMS SHOULD DIE
DOWN THIS EVENING AFTER THE SUN SETS JUST IN TIME FOR THE
FIREWORKS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STORMS THAT FIRE OFF IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LLJ WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND KEEP
STORMS GOING MOST OF THE NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IN MONTANA SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LATEST NWP GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN
THE COLD FRONT A BIT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MORE STORMIER
SOLUTION FOR THE CWA AS THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING
PEAK HEATING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL EXIT THE AREA BY MON
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. LOOKING TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...A TROF IS STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW COULD BRING AT LEAST
LOW POPS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE EARLY IN THE WEEK...RISING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH SUN
MORNING...EXPECTED FOR POCKETS OF SMOKE FROM FIREWORKS. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH SCT
SHRA AND TS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER WESTERN SD. SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER NE
WY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CONDS LIKELY THERE. STRONG NW
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 050510
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1110 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1003MB SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL MONTANA...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE UNR
CWA...WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 2500-3500J/KG AND NO CIN. DESPITE THE
LACK OF CIN OVER THE REGION...SATELLITE REVEALS MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH ONLY AN AGITATED CU FIELD OVER THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO FIRE OFF SO FAR.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD FIRE OFF
THE BLACK HILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS FIRING OFF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. THE CAPE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...SO ANYTHING THAT DOES FIRE
OFF DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. STORMS SHOULD DIE
DOWN THIS EVENING AFTER THE SUN SETS JUST IN TIME FOR THE
FIREWORKS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STORMS THAT FIRE OFF IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LLJ WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND KEEP
STORMS GOING MOST OF THE NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IN MONTANA SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LATEST NWP GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN
THE COLD FRONT A BIT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MORE STORMIER
SOLUTION FOR THE CWA AS THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING
PEAK HEATING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL EXIT THE AREA BY MON
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. LOOKING TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...A TROF IS STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW COULD BRING AT LEAST
LOW POPS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE EARLY IN THE WEEK...RISING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH SUN
MORNING...EXPECTED FOR POCKETS OF SMOKE FROM FIREWORKS. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH SCT
SHRA AND TS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER WESTERN SD. SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER NE
WY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CONDS LIKELY THERE. STRONG NW
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC


  [top]

000
FXUS65 KCYS 050411
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
543 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP FOR MAINLY AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.  A STORM TRIED TO INTENSIFY A
FEW HOURS AGO AS IT MOVED OFF THE NORTH LARAMIE RANGE TOWARD
WHEATLAND...HOWEVER IT WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY.  DO NOT BELIEVE THAT
THE STORMS WILL BE AS STRONG TODAY ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH A
DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE.  HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTY WINDS
WITH A VERY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE.  THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN
FOR STRONG TO SVR STORMS WILL BE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE SFC
TROUGH ALONG THE WY-NE BORDER WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG TO THE
EAST OVER THE PANHANDLE.  BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 35 KTS...SO THERE IS
DEFINITELY SOME SVR POTENTIAL FOR STORMS INITIATING ACROSS NEBRASKA.
 THE HRRR DOES SHOW A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE PINE RIDGE AND
DAWES COUNTY BY 22Z THAT QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH
PLATTES CWA.  HAVE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FCST FOR THE
FAR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.  OVERALL IT SHOULD BE A
NICE EVENING OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

IT IS STILL LOOKING LIKE CHANCES OF RAIN WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE (CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA)
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER WYOMING.  THERE IS GOOD MONSOONAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND PW VALUES INCREASE TO 1.25-1.50
INCHES ACROSS THE PLAINS BY THE AFTN...WITH AROUND 1 INCH TO THE
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.  COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTN.  SOUNDINGS AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST
THAT THERE COULD BE A STRONG STORM WITH SMALL HAIL...HOWEVER A BIT
MORE CONCERNED ABOUT HEAVY RAIN WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE.
STORM MOTIONS OF 20-25 KTS WILL LIKELY BE FAST ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT LOW...HOWEVER IT IS SOMETHING WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH.  A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE MIDLVL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
STABLE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.  TEMPS WILL BE A GOOD 15-20
DEGREES COOLER.  KEPT LOW STORM CHANCES MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A NUMBER OF DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE FIRST WAVE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THIS WAVE
ON TUESDAY AND WILL ADVECT DEW POINTS OF LOW TO MID 50S INTO EASTERN
PLAINS. STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE SHOULD INITIATE
CONVECTION IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA...WITH A FEW STORMS
LOOKING TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL. BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST  TO BE IN THE
30 TO 40 KT RANGE SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS
BECOME STRONG. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH JET DIFFLUENCE INCREASING OVER WYOMING AS THE UPPER JET
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER
CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS
QUITE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY BUT WITH THE FOCUS FOR STRONGER STORMS
LOOKING TO BE MORE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE DEW POINTS
COULD SPIKE UP INTO THE UPPER 50S. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITHIN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING
ACROSS CALIFORNIA. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO WIDESPREAD 80S WITH A FEW
90S EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. SHOULD STILL SEE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
THURSDAY...BUT WARMER AND DRIER AIR MOVING OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY COULD
LIMIT CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR OVERNIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...VFR PREVAILS...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING OCCASIONAL TURBULENCE AND MVFR...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AFTER SUPPER TIME WITH STORM
STRENGTH DECREASING...AND LOCALIZED MVFR IN THE EVENING IN STRONGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 406 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  IT WILL BE
WARM ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING AND COOLS THINGS DOWN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THERE
WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE
AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...ZF




000
FXUS65 KCYS 042343
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
543 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP FOR MAINLY AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.  A STORM TRIED TO INTENSIFY A
FEW HOURS AGO AS IT MOVED OFF THE NORTH LARAMIE RANGE TOWARD
WHEATLAND...HOWEVER IT WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY.  DO NOT BELIEVE THAT
THE STORMS WILL BE AS STRONG TODAY ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH A
DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE.  HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTY WINDS
WITH A VERY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE.  THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN
FOR STRONG TO SVR STORMS WILL BE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE SFC
TROUGH ALONG THE WY-NE BORDER WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG TO THE
EAST OVER THE PANHANDLE.  BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 35 KTS...SO THERE IS
DEFINITELY SOME SVR POTENTIAL FOR STORMS INITIATING ACROSS NEBRASKA.
 THE HRRR DOES SHOW A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE PINE RIDGE AND
DAWES COUNTY BY 22Z THAT QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH
PLATTES CWA.  HAVE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FCST FOR THE
FAR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.  OVERALL IT SHOULD BE A
NICE EVENING OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

IT IS STILL LOOKING LIKE CHANCES OF RAIN WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE (CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA)
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER WYOMING.  THERE IS GOOD MONSOONAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND PW VALUES INCREASE TO 1.25-1.50
INCHES ACROSS THE PLAINS BY THE AFTN...WITH AROUND 1 INCH TO THE
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.  COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTN.  SOUNDINGS AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST
THAT THERE COULD BE A STRONG STORM WITH SMALL HAIL...HOWEVER A BIT
MORE CONCERNED ABOUT HEAVY RAIN WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE.
STORM MOTIONS OF 20-25 KTS WILL LIKELY BE FAST ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT LOW...HOWEVER IT IS SOMETHING WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH.  A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE MIDLVL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
STABLE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.  TEMPS WILL BE A GOOD 15-20
DEGREES COOLER.  KEPT LOW STORM CHANCES MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A NUMBER OF DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE FIRST WAVE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THIS WAVE
ON TUESDAY AND WILL ADVECT DEW POINTS OF LOW TO MID 50S INTO EASTERN
PLAINS. STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE SHOULD INITIATE
CONVECTION IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA...WITH A FEW STORMS
LOOKING TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL. BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST  TO BE IN THE
30 TO 40 KT RANGE SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS
BECOME STRONG. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH JET DIFFLUENCE INCREASING OVER WYOMING AS THE UPPER JET
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER
CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS
QUITE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY BUT WITH THE FOCUS FOR STRONGER STORMS
LOOKING TO BE MORE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE DEW POINTS
COULD SPIKE UP INTO THE UPPER 50S. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITHIN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING
ACROSS CALIFORNIA. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO WIDESPREAD 80S WITH A FEW
90S EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. SHOULD STILL SEE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
THURSDAY...BUT WARMER AND DRIER AIR MOVING OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY COULD
LIMIT CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 03Z...PRODUCING SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 5000 FEET AGL AND OCCASIONAL TURBULENCE
...OTHERWISE VFR OVERNIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...VFR PREVAILS...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING OCCASIONAL TURBULENCE AND MVFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 406 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  IT WILL BE
WARM ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING AND COOLS THINGS DOWN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THERE
WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE
AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...ZF



000
FXUS65 KCYS 042343
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
543 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP FOR MAINLY AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.  A STORM TRIED TO INTENSIFY A
FEW HOURS AGO AS IT MOVED OFF THE NORTH LARAMIE RANGE TOWARD
WHEATLAND...HOWEVER IT WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY.  DO NOT BELIEVE THAT
THE STORMS WILL BE AS STRONG TODAY ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH A
DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE.  HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTY WINDS
WITH A VERY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE.  THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN
FOR STRONG TO SVR STORMS WILL BE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE SFC
TROUGH ALONG THE WY-NE BORDER WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG TO THE
EAST OVER THE PANHANDLE.  BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 35 KTS...SO THERE IS
DEFINITELY SOME SVR POTENTIAL FOR STORMS INITIATING ACROSS NEBRASKA.
 THE HRRR DOES SHOW A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE PINE RIDGE AND
DAWES COUNTY BY 22Z THAT QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH
PLATTES CWA.  HAVE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FCST FOR THE
FAR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.  OVERALL IT SHOULD BE A
NICE EVENING OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

IT IS STILL LOOKING LIKE CHANCES OF RAIN WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE (CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA)
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER WYOMING.  THERE IS GOOD MONSOONAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND PW VALUES INCREASE TO 1.25-1.50
INCHES ACROSS THE PLAINS BY THE AFTN...WITH AROUND 1 INCH TO THE
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.  COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTN.  SOUNDINGS AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST
THAT THERE COULD BE A STRONG STORM WITH SMALL HAIL...HOWEVER A BIT
MORE CONCERNED ABOUT HEAVY RAIN WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE.
STORM MOTIONS OF 20-25 KTS WILL LIKELY BE FAST ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT LOW...HOWEVER IT IS SOMETHING WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH.  A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE MIDLVL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
STABLE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.  TEMPS WILL BE A GOOD 15-20
DEGREES COOLER.  KEPT LOW STORM CHANCES MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A NUMBER OF DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE FIRST WAVE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THIS WAVE
ON TUESDAY AND WILL ADVECT DEW POINTS OF LOW TO MID 50S INTO EASTERN
PLAINS. STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE SHOULD INITIATE
CONVECTION IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA...WITH A FEW STORMS
LOOKING TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL. BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST  TO BE IN THE
30 TO 40 KT RANGE SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS
BECOME STRONG. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH JET DIFFLUENCE INCREASING OVER WYOMING AS THE UPPER JET
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER
CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS
QUITE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY BUT WITH THE FOCUS FOR STRONGER STORMS
LOOKING TO BE MORE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE DEW POINTS
COULD SPIKE UP INTO THE UPPER 50S. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITHIN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING
ACROSS CALIFORNIA. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO WIDESPREAD 80S WITH A FEW
90S EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. SHOULD STILL SEE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
THURSDAY...BUT WARMER AND DRIER AIR MOVING OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY COULD
LIMIT CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 03Z...PRODUCING SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 5000 FEET AGL AND OCCASIONAL TURBULENCE
...OTHERWISE VFR OVERNIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...VFR PREVAILS...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING OCCASIONAL TURBULENCE AND MVFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 406 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  IT WILL BE
WARM ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING AND COOLS THINGS DOWN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THERE
WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE
AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...ZF




000
FXUS63 KUNR 042310
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
510 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1003MB SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL MONTANA...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE UNR
CWA...WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 2500-3500J/KG AND NO CIN. DESPITE THE
LACK OF CIN OVER THE REGION...SATELLITE REVEALS MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH ONLY AN AGITATED CU FIELD OVER THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO FIRE OFF SO FAR.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD FIRE OFF
THE BLACK HILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS FIRING OFF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. THE CAPE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...SO ANYTHING THAT DOES FIRE
OFF DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. STORMS SHOULD DIE
DOWN THIS EVENING AFTER THE SUN SETS JUST IN TIME FOR THE
FIREWORKS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STORMS THAT FIRE OFF IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LLJ WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND KEEP
STORMS GOING MOST OF THE NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IN MONTANA SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LATEST NWP GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN
THE COLD FRONT A BIT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MORE STORMIER
SOLUTION FOR THE CWA AS THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING
PEAK HEATING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL EXIT THE AREA BY MON
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. LOOKING TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...A TROF IS STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW COULD BRING AT LEAST
LOW POPS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE EARLY IN THE WEEK...RISING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 501 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EVENING...MAINLY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOCAL AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED
MOST LOCATIONS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY...WITH SCT SHRA AND TS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. SHRA
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE OVER NE WY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CONDS LIKELY THERE. STRONG NW WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUN AFTERNOON...ESP OVER NE WY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 042310
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
510 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1003MB SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL MONTANA...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE UNR
CWA...WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 2500-3500J/KG AND NO CIN. DESPITE THE
LACK OF CIN OVER THE REGION...SATELLITE REVEALS MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH ONLY AN AGITATED CU FIELD OVER THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO FIRE OFF SO FAR.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD FIRE OFF
THE BLACK HILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS FIRING OFF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. THE CAPE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...SO ANYTHING THAT DOES FIRE
OFF DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. STORMS SHOULD DIE
DOWN THIS EVENING AFTER THE SUN SETS JUST IN TIME FOR THE
FIREWORKS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STORMS THAT FIRE OFF IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LLJ WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND KEEP
STORMS GOING MOST OF THE NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IN MONTANA SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LATEST NWP GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN
THE COLD FRONT A BIT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MORE STORMIER
SOLUTION FOR THE CWA AS THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING
PEAK HEATING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL EXIT THE AREA BY MON
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. LOOKING TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...A TROF IS STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW COULD BRING AT LEAST
LOW POPS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE EARLY IN THE WEEK...RISING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 501 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EVENING...MAINLY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOCAL AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED
MOST LOCATIONS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY...WITH SCT SHRA AND TS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. SHRA
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE OVER NE WY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CONDS LIKELY THERE. STRONG NW WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUN AFTERNOON...ESP OVER NE WY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 042310
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
510 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1003MB SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL MONTANA...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE UNR
CWA...WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 2500-3500J/KG AND NO CIN. DESPITE THE
LACK OF CIN OVER THE REGION...SATELLITE REVEALS MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH ONLY AN AGITATED CU FIELD OVER THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO FIRE OFF SO FAR.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD FIRE OFF
THE BLACK HILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS FIRING OFF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. THE CAPE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...SO ANYTHING THAT DOES FIRE
OFF DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. STORMS SHOULD DIE
DOWN THIS EVENING AFTER THE SUN SETS JUST IN TIME FOR THE
FIREWORKS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STORMS THAT FIRE OFF IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LLJ WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND KEEP
STORMS GOING MOST OF THE NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IN MONTANA SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LATEST NWP GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN
THE COLD FRONT A BIT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MORE STORMIER
SOLUTION FOR THE CWA AS THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING
PEAK HEATING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL EXIT THE AREA BY MON
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. LOOKING TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...A TROF IS STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW COULD BRING AT LEAST
LOW POPS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE EARLY IN THE WEEK...RISING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 501 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EVENING...MAINLY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOCAL AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED
MOST LOCATIONS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY...WITH SCT SHRA AND TS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. SHRA
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE OVER NE WY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CONDS LIKELY THERE. STRONG NW WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUN AFTERNOON...ESP OVER NE WY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 042310
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
510 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1003MB SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL MONTANA...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE UNR
CWA...WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 2500-3500J/KG AND NO CIN. DESPITE THE
LACK OF CIN OVER THE REGION...SATELLITE REVEALS MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH ONLY AN AGITATED CU FIELD OVER THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO FIRE OFF SO FAR.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD FIRE OFF
THE BLACK HILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS FIRING OFF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. THE CAPE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...SO ANYTHING THAT DOES FIRE
OFF DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. STORMS SHOULD DIE
DOWN THIS EVENING AFTER THE SUN SETS JUST IN TIME FOR THE
FIREWORKS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STORMS THAT FIRE OFF IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LLJ WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND KEEP
STORMS GOING MOST OF THE NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IN MONTANA SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LATEST NWP GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN
THE COLD FRONT A BIT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MORE STORMIER
SOLUTION FOR THE CWA AS THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING
PEAK HEATING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL EXIT THE AREA BY MON
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. LOOKING TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...A TROF IS STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW COULD BRING AT LEAST
LOW POPS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE EARLY IN THE WEEK...RISING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 501 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EVENING...MAINLY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOCAL AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED
MOST LOCATIONS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY...WITH SCT SHRA AND TS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. SHRA
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE OVER NE WY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CONDS LIKELY THERE. STRONG NW WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUN AFTERNOON...ESP OVER NE WY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS65 KCYS 042207
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
407 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP FOR MAINLY AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.  A STORM TRIED TO INTENSIFY A
FEW HOURS AGO AS IT MOVED OFF THE NORTH LARAMIE RANGE TOWARD
WHEATLAND...HOWEVER IT WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY.  DO NOT BELIEVE THAT
THE STORMS WILL BE AS STRONG TODAY ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH A
DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE.  HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTY WINDS
WITH A VERY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE.  THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN
FOR STRONG TO SVR STORMS WILL BE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE SFC
TROUGH ALONG THE WY-NE BORDER WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG TO THE
EAST OVER THE PANHANDLE.  BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 35 KTS...SO THERE IS
DEFINITELY SOME SVR POTENTIAL FOR STORMS INITIATING ACROSS NEBRASKA.
 THE HRRR DOES SHOW A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE PINE RIDGE AND
DAWES COUNTY BY 22Z THAT QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH
PLATTES CWA.  HAVE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FCST FOR THE
FAR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.  OVERALL IT SHOULD BE A
NICE EVENING OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

IT IS STILL LOOKING LIKE CHANCES OF RAIN WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE (CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA)
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER WYOMING.  THERE IS GOOD MONSOONAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND PW VALUES INCREASE TO 1.25-1.50
INCHES ACROSS THE PLAINS BY THE AFTN...WITH AROUND 1 INCH TO THE
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.  COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTN.  SOUNDINGS AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST
THAT THERE COULD BE A STRONG STORM WITH SMALL HAIL...HOWEVER A BIT
MORE CONCERNED ABOUT HEAVY RAIN WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE.
STORM MOTIONS OF 20-25 KTS WILL LIKELY BE FAST ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT LOW...HOWEVER IT IS SOMETHING WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH.  A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE MIDLVL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
STABLE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.  TEMPS WILL BE A GOOD 15-20
DEGREES COOLER.  KEPT LOW STORM CHANCES MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A NUMBER OF DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE FIRST WAVE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THIS WAVE
ON TUESDAY AND WILL ADVECT DEW POINTS OF LOW TO MID 50S INTO EASTERN
PLAINS. STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE SHOULD INITIATE
CONVECTION IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA...WITH A FEW STORMS
LOOKING TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL. BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST  TO BE IN THE
30 TO 40 KT RANGE SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS
BECOME STRONG. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH JET DIFFLUENCE INCREASING OVER WYOMING AS THE UPPER JET
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER
CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS
QUITE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY BUT WITH THE FOCUS FOR STRONGER STORMS
LOOKING TO BE MORE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE DEW POINTS
COULD SPIKE UP INTO THE UPPER 50S. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITHIN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING
ACROSS CALIFORNIA. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO WIDESPREAD 80S WITH A FEW
90S EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. SHOULD STILL SEE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
THURSDAY...BUT WARMER AND DRIER AIR MOVING OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY COULD
LIMIT CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR THE
SOUTHEAST WYOMING TERMINALS IN ADDITION TO KAIA AND KCDR. GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY...WITH BRIEF MVFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE IN MODERATE RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT
WIDESPREAD PREVAILING GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 406 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  IT WILL BE
WARM ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING AND COOLS THINGS DOWN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THERE
WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE
AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...ZF



000
FXUS65 KCYS 042207
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
407 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP FOR MAINLY AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.  A STORM TRIED TO INTENSIFY A
FEW HOURS AGO AS IT MOVED OFF THE NORTH LARAMIE RANGE TOWARD
WHEATLAND...HOWEVER IT WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY.  DO NOT BELIEVE THAT
THE STORMS WILL BE AS STRONG TODAY ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH A
DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE.  HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTY WINDS
WITH A VERY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE.  THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN
FOR STRONG TO SVR STORMS WILL BE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE SFC
TROUGH ALONG THE WY-NE BORDER WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG TO THE
EAST OVER THE PANHANDLE.  BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 35 KTS...SO THERE IS
DEFINITELY SOME SVR POTENTIAL FOR STORMS INITIATING ACROSS NEBRASKA.
 THE HRRR DOES SHOW A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE PINE RIDGE AND
DAWES COUNTY BY 22Z THAT QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH
PLATTES CWA.  HAVE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FCST FOR THE
FAR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.  OVERALL IT SHOULD BE A
NICE EVENING OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

IT IS STILL LOOKING LIKE CHANCES OF RAIN WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE (CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA)
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER WYOMING.  THERE IS GOOD MONSOONAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND PW VALUES INCREASE TO 1.25-1.50
INCHES ACROSS THE PLAINS BY THE AFTN...WITH AROUND 1 INCH TO THE
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.  COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTN.  SOUNDINGS AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST
THAT THERE COULD BE A STRONG STORM WITH SMALL HAIL...HOWEVER A BIT
MORE CONCERNED ABOUT HEAVY RAIN WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE.
STORM MOTIONS OF 20-25 KTS WILL LIKELY BE FAST ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT LOW...HOWEVER IT IS SOMETHING WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH.  A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE MIDLVL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
STABLE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.  TEMPS WILL BE A GOOD 15-20
DEGREES COOLER.  KEPT LOW STORM CHANCES MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A NUMBER OF DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE FIRST WAVE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THIS WAVE
ON TUESDAY AND WILL ADVECT DEW POINTS OF LOW TO MID 50S INTO EASTERN
PLAINS. STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE SHOULD INITIATE
CONVECTION IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA...WITH A FEW STORMS
LOOKING TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL. BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST  TO BE IN THE
30 TO 40 KT RANGE SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS
BECOME STRONG. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH JET DIFFLUENCE INCREASING OVER WYOMING AS THE UPPER JET
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER
CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS
QUITE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY BUT WITH THE FOCUS FOR STRONGER STORMS
LOOKING TO BE MORE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE DEW POINTS
COULD SPIKE UP INTO THE UPPER 50S. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITHIN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING
ACROSS CALIFORNIA. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO WIDESPREAD 80S WITH A FEW
90S EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. SHOULD STILL SEE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
THURSDAY...BUT WARMER AND DRIER AIR MOVING OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY COULD
LIMIT CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR THE
SOUTHEAST WYOMING TERMINALS IN ADDITION TO KAIA AND KCDR. GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY...WITH BRIEF MVFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE IN MODERATE RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT
WIDESPREAD PREVAILING GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 406 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  IT WILL BE
WARM ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING AND COOLS THINGS DOWN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THERE
WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE
AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...ZF




000
FXUS65 KRIW 042054
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
254 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF WYOMING THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...THE NORTH WILL BE GENERALLY DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
WARMER...BEFORE A COMBINATION OF A CANADIAN COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WYOMING...AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT BASIN...WILL COMBINE FOR
RATHER WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER...COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION WILL
COOL TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE CENTERED AROUND THE BIGHORN
MOUNTAINS...WHILE MOST OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS CAN EXPECT RAINFALL
OF A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL RECEIVE LESS RAINFALL. AREAS
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS...SUCH AS BUFFALO...CASPER... LANDER...CODY
AND DUBOIS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF RECEIVING RAINFALL OF A HALF
INCH OR MORE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
AS MOISTURE SAGS TOO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE AND DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO FILTER INTO NORTHWEST WYOMING. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
ON MONDAY WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING WHERE MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN MORE PLENTIFUL AND INSTABILITY MORE FAVORABLE. EXPECT THIS
AREA TO PUSH FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST DURING MONDAY EVENING.
LIFTED INDICES AND LAPSE RATES INDICATE THAT CONVECTION WILL BE
LIMITED OR NON-EXISTENT IN JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES. CONVECTION
LOOKS TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE IN THE AFTERNOON WOULD INTENSIFY CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH-HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
SLIDE SOUTH EARLY WEDNESDAY SLOWING THE WARMING TREND THAT HAD BEGUN
THE PREVIOUS DAY. OVERALL...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A TYPICAL SUMMER
DAY IN WYOMING...ALBEIT COOLER THAN NORMAL...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION THAT BEGINS MIDDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONE CAVEAT
HERE WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE JUICY AIR AND FAVORABLE SHEAR
PROFILE IN JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES BEHIND THE WEAK BOUNDARY.
LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE ANOTHER WEAK SURGE OF COOL AIR EARLY
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO BACK TO
THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY THE SOUTHWEST WITH WARMER AIR SURGING INTO
THE STATE. THIS WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LOW SET TO REACH THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY/FRIDAY. AS THIS LOW MOVES INLAND...
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO OR BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH WARMER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ENVELOPING WYOMING. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. FOR NOW...BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A DRY SLOT ACROSS WYOMING SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW
APPROACHES. COULD BE WARM...WINDY...AND DRY FRIDAY AND MORE SO
SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS COULD
BE SOMETHING TO FOLLOW FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IF FUELS WERE TO
BECOME CRITICAL.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE AIRPORTS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.
A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE ACROSS SOUTHERN
WYOMING WHERE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BLOSSOM IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY VCNTY AND SOUTH OF A KRKS-KCPR
LINE. A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST WILL
KEEP ISOLD -TSRA CONFINED MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE MTNS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AROUND 06Z
SUNDAY...SPREADING ISOLD SHOWERS SOUTH INTO VCNTY KCOD-KWRL-KBYG
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS REMAINING PREVAILING VFR BEHIND
THE FRONT.  12Z THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
FROM MONTANA...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE UP FROM THE GREAT
BASIN COLLIDING WITH THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WITH TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED FROM 18Z THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. LOCAL
MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY
IMPACT ANY OF THE AIRPORTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF WYOMING THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...THE NORTH WILL BE GENERALLY DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
WARMER...BEFORE A COMBINATION OF A CANADIAN COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WYOMING...AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT BASIN...WILL COMBINE FOR
RATHER WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER...COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION WILL
COOL TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE CENTERED AROUND THE BIGHORN
MOUNTAINS...WHILE MOST OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS CAN EXPECT RAINFALL
OF A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL RECEIVE LESS RAINFALL. AREAS
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS...SUCH AS BUFFALO...CASPER... LANDER...CODY
AND DUBOIS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF RECEIVING RAINFALL OF A HALF
INCH OR MORE.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...CNJ
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER




000
FXUS65 KRIW 042054
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
254 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF WYOMING THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...THE NORTH WILL BE GENERALLY DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
WARMER...BEFORE A COMBINATION OF A CANADIAN COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WYOMING...AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT BASIN...WILL COMBINE FOR
RATHER WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER...COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION WILL
COOL TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE CENTERED AROUND THE BIGHORN
MOUNTAINS...WHILE MOST OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS CAN EXPECT RAINFALL
OF A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL RECEIVE LESS RAINFALL. AREAS
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS...SUCH AS BUFFALO...CASPER... LANDER...CODY
AND DUBOIS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF RECEIVING RAINFALL OF A HALF
INCH OR MORE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
AS MOISTURE SAGS TOO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE AND DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO FILTER INTO NORTHWEST WYOMING. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
ON MONDAY WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING WHERE MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN MORE PLENTIFUL AND INSTABILITY MORE FAVORABLE. EXPECT THIS
AREA TO PUSH FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST DURING MONDAY EVENING.
LIFTED INDICES AND LAPSE RATES INDICATE THAT CONVECTION WILL BE
LIMITED OR NON-EXISTENT IN JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES. CONVECTION
LOOKS TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE IN THE AFTERNOON WOULD INTENSIFY CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH-HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
SLIDE SOUTH EARLY WEDNESDAY SLOWING THE WARMING TREND THAT HAD BEGUN
THE PREVIOUS DAY. OVERALL...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A TYPICAL SUMMER
DAY IN WYOMING...ALBEIT COOLER THAN NORMAL...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION THAT BEGINS MIDDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONE CAVEAT
HERE WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE JUICY AIR AND FAVORABLE SHEAR
PROFILE IN JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES BEHIND THE WEAK BOUNDARY.
LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE ANOTHER WEAK SURGE OF COOL AIR EARLY
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO BACK TO
THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY THE SOUTHWEST WITH WARMER AIR SURGING INTO
THE STATE. THIS WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LOW SET TO REACH THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY/FRIDAY. AS THIS LOW MOVES INLAND...
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO OR BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH WARMER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ENVELOPING WYOMING. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. FOR NOW...BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A DRY SLOT ACROSS WYOMING SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW
APPROACHES. COULD BE WARM...WINDY...AND DRY FRIDAY AND MORE SO
SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS COULD
BE SOMETHING TO FOLLOW FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IF FUELS WERE TO
BECOME CRITICAL.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE AIRPORTS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.
A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE ACROSS SOUTHERN
WYOMING WHERE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BLOSSOM IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY VCNTY AND SOUTH OF A KRKS-KCPR
LINE. A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST WILL
KEEP ISOLD -TSRA CONFINED MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE MTNS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AROUND 06Z
SUNDAY...SPREADING ISOLD SHOWERS SOUTH INTO VCNTY KCOD-KWRL-KBYG
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS REMAINING PREVAILING VFR BEHIND
THE FRONT.  12Z THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
FROM MONTANA...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE UP FROM THE GREAT
BASIN COLLIDING WITH THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WITH TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED FROM 18Z THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. LOCAL
MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY
IMPACT ANY OF THE AIRPORTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF WYOMING THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...THE NORTH WILL BE GENERALLY DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
WARMER...BEFORE A COMBINATION OF A CANADIAN COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WYOMING...AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT BASIN...WILL COMBINE FOR
RATHER WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER...COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION WILL
COOL TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE CENTERED AROUND THE BIGHORN
MOUNTAINS...WHILE MOST OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS CAN EXPECT RAINFALL
OF A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL RECEIVE LESS RAINFALL. AREAS
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS...SUCH AS BUFFALO...CASPER... LANDER...CODY
AND DUBOIS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF RECEIVING RAINFALL OF A HALF
INCH OR MORE.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...CNJ
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER




000
FXUS65 KRIW 042054
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
254 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF WYOMING THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...THE NORTH WILL BE GENERALLY DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
WARMER...BEFORE A COMBINATION OF A CANADIAN COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WYOMING...AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT BASIN...WILL COMBINE FOR
RATHER WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER...COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION WILL
COOL TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE CENTERED AROUND THE BIGHORN
MOUNTAINS...WHILE MOST OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS CAN EXPECT RAINFALL
OF A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL RECEIVE LESS RAINFALL. AREAS
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS...SUCH AS BUFFALO...CASPER... LANDER...CODY
AND DUBOIS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF RECEIVING RAINFALL OF A HALF
INCH OR MORE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
AS MOISTURE SAGS TOO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE AND DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO FILTER INTO NORTHWEST WYOMING. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
ON MONDAY WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING WHERE MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN MORE PLENTIFUL AND INSTABILITY MORE FAVORABLE. EXPECT THIS
AREA TO PUSH FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST DURING MONDAY EVENING.
LIFTED INDICES AND LAPSE RATES INDICATE THAT CONVECTION WILL BE
LIMITED OR NON-EXISTENT IN JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES. CONVECTION
LOOKS TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE IN THE AFTERNOON WOULD INTENSIFY CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH-HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
SLIDE SOUTH EARLY WEDNESDAY SLOWING THE WARMING TREND THAT HAD BEGUN
THE PREVIOUS DAY. OVERALL...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A TYPICAL SUMMER
DAY IN WYOMING...ALBEIT COOLER THAN NORMAL...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION THAT BEGINS MIDDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONE CAVEAT
HERE WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE JUICY AIR AND FAVORABLE SHEAR
PROFILE IN JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES BEHIND THE WEAK BOUNDARY.
LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE ANOTHER WEAK SURGE OF COOL AIR EARLY
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO BACK TO
THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY THE SOUTHWEST WITH WARMER AIR SURGING INTO
THE STATE. THIS WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LOW SET TO REACH THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY/FRIDAY. AS THIS LOW MOVES INLAND...
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO OR BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH WARMER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ENVELOPING WYOMING. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. FOR NOW...BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A DRY SLOT ACROSS WYOMING SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW
APPROACHES. COULD BE WARM...WINDY...AND DRY FRIDAY AND MORE SO
SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS COULD
BE SOMETHING TO FOLLOW FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IF FUELS WERE TO
BECOME CRITICAL.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE AIRPORTS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.
A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE ACROSS SOUTHERN
WYOMING WHERE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BLOSSOM IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY VCNTY AND SOUTH OF A KRKS-KCPR
LINE. A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST WILL
KEEP ISOLD -TSRA CONFINED MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE MTNS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AROUND 06Z
SUNDAY...SPREADING ISOLD SHOWERS SOUTH INTO VCNTY KCOD-KWRL-KBYG
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS REMAINING PREVAILING VFR BEHIND
THE FRONT.  12Z THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
FROM MONTANA...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE UP FROM THE GREAT
BASIN COLLIDING WITH THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WITH TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED FROM 18Z THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. LOCAL
MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY
IMPACT ANY OF THE AIRPORTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF WYOMING THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...THE NORTH WILL BE GENERALLY DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
WARMER...BEFORE A COMBINATION OF A CANADIAN COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WYOMING...AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT BASIN...WILL COMBINE FOR
RATHER WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER...COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION WILL
COOL TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE CENTERED AROUND THE BIGHORN
MOUNTAINS...WHILE MOST OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS CAN EXPECT RAINFALL
OF A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL RECEIVE LESS RAINFALL. AREAS
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS...SUCH AS BUFFALO...CASPER... LANDER...CODY
AND DUBOIS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF RECEIVING RAINFALL OF A HALF
INCH OR MORE.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...CNJ
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER




000
FXUS65 KRIW 042054
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
254 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF WYOMING THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...THE NORTH WILL BE GENERALLY DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
WARMER...BEFORE A COMBINATION OF A CANADIAN COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WYOMING...AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT BASIN...WILL COMBINE FOR
RATHER WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER...COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION WILL
COOL TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE CENTERED AROUND THE BIGHORN
MOUNTAINS...WHILE MOST OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS CAN EXPECT RAINFALL
OF A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL RECEIVE LESS RAINFALL. AREAS
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS...SUCH AS BUFFALO...CASPER... LANDER...CODY
AND DUBOIS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF RECEIVING RAINFALL OF A HALF
INCH OR MORE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
AS MOISTURE SAGS TOO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE AND DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO FILTER INTO NORTHWEST WYOMING. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
ON MONDAY WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING WHERE MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN MORE PLENTIFUL AND INSTABILITY MORE FAVORABLE. EXPECT THIS
AREA TO PUSH FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST DURING MONDAY EVENING.
LIFTED INDICES AND LAPSE RATES INDICATE THAT CONVECTION WILL BE
LIMITED OR NON-EXISTENT IN JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES. CONVECTION
LOOKS TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE IN THE AFTERNOON WOULD INTENSIFY CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH-HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
SLIDE SOUTH EARLY WEDNESDAY SLOWING THE WARMING TREND THAT HAD BEGUN
THE PREVIOUS DAY. OVERALL...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A TYPICAL SUMMER
DAY IN WYOMING...ALBEIT COOLER THAN NORMAL...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION THAT BEGINS MIDDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONE CAVEAT
HERE WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE JUICY AIR AND FAVORABLE SHEAR
PROFILE IN JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES BEHIND THE WEAK BOUNDARY.
LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE ANOTHER WEAK SURGE OF COOL AIR EARLY
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO BACK TO
THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY THE SOUTHWEST WITH WARMER AIR SURGING INTO
THE STATE. THIS WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LOW SET TO REACH THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY/FRIDAY. AS THIS LOW MOVES INLAND...
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO OR BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH WARMER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ENVELOPING WYOMING. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. FOR NOW...BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A DRY SLOT ACROSS WYOMING SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW
APPROACHES. COULD BE WARM...WINDY...AND DRY FRIDAY AND MORE SO
SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS COULD
BE SOMETHING TO FOLLOW FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IF FUELS WERE TO
BECOME CRITICAL.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE AIRPORTS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.
A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE ACROSS SOUTHERN
WYOMING WHERE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BLOSSOM IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY VCNTY AND SOUTH OF A KRKS-KCPR
LINE. A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST WILL
KEEP ISOLD -TSRA CONFINED MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE MTNS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AROUND 06Z
SUNDAY...SPREADING ISOLD SHOWERS SOUTH INTO VCNTY KCOD-KWRL-KBYG
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS REMAINING PREVAILING VFR BEHIND
THE FRONT.  12Z THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
FROM MONTANA...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE UP FROM THE GREAT
BASIN COLLIDING WITH THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WITH TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED FROM 18Z THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. LOCAL
MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY
IMPACT ANY OF THE AIRPORTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF WYOMING THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...THE NORTH WILL BE GENERALLY DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
WARMER...BEFORE A COMBINATION OF A CANADIAN COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WYOMING...AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT BASIN...WILL COMBINE FOR
RATHER WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER...COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION WILL
COOL TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE CENTERED AROUND THE BIGHORN
MOUNTAINS...WHILE MOST OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS CAN EXPECT RAINFALL
OF A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL RECEIVE LESS RAINFALL. AREAS
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS...SUCH AS BUFFALO...CASPER... LANDER...CODY
AND DUBOIS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF RECEIVING RAINFALL OF A HALF
INCH OR MORE.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...CNJ
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER




000
FXUS63 KUNR 042017
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
217 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1003MB SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL MONTANA...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE UNR
CWA...WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 2500-3500J/KG AND NO CIN. DESPITE THE
LACK OF CIN OVER THE REGION...SATELLITE REVEALS MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH ONLY AN AGITATED CU FIELD OVER THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO FIRE OFF SO FAR.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD FIRE OFF
THE BLACK HILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS FIRING OFF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. THE CAPE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...SO ANYTHING THAT DOES FIRE
OFF DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. STORMS SHOULD DIE
DOWN THIS EVENING AFTER THE SUN SETS JUST IN TIME FOR THE
FIREWORKS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STORMS THAT FIRE OFF IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LLJ WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND KEEP
STORMS GOING MOST OF THE NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IN MONTANA SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LATEST NWP GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN
THE COLD FRONT A BIT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MORE STORMIER
SOLUTION FOR THE CWA AS THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING
PEAK HEATING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL EXIT THE AREA BY MON
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. LOOKING TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...A TROF IS STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW COULD BRING AT LEAST
LOW POPS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE EARLY IN THE WEEK...RISING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE... ESPECIALLY
TOWARD CENTRAL SD...WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE. LOCAL AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KUNR 042017
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
217 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1003MB SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL MONTANA...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE UNR
CWA...WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 2500-3500J/KG AND NO CIN. DESPITE THE
LACK OF CIN OVER THE REGION...SATELLITE REVEALS MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH ONLY AN AGITATED CU FIELD OVER THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO FIRE OFF SO FAR.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD FIRE OFF
THE BLACK HILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS FIRING OFF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. THE CAPE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...SO ANYTHING THAT DOES FIRE
OFF DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. STORMS SHOULD DIE
DOWN THIS EVENING AFTER THE SUN SETS JUST IN TIME FOR THE
FIREWORKS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STORMS THAT FIRE OFF IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LLJ WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND KEEP
STORMS GOING MOST OF THE NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IN MONTANA SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LATEST NWP GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN
THE COLD FRONT A BIT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MORE STORMIER
SOLUTION FOR THE CWA AS THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING
PEAK HEATING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL EXIT THE AREA BY MON
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. LOOKING TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...A TROF IS STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW COULD BRING AT LEAST
LOW POPS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE EARLY IN THE WEEK...RISING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE... ESPECIALLY
TOWARD CENTRAL SD...WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE. LOCAL AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS65 KCYS 041818
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1218 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FORCING DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT
IS THE MAIN FACTOR IN ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WHICH ARE OCCURRING
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER THROUGH AROUND
SUNRISE BEFORE DYING OFF COMPLETELY.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TO SOME OF THE HIGHEST READINGS OF THE YEAR...MAKING FOR A VERY
WARM 4TH OF JULY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 80S TO MID
90S OVER MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.

AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE NO STRONG FORCING MECHANISMS
IN PLACE TODAY AND THAT BEING THE CASE IT IS TOUGH TO PINPOINT
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOR CERTAIN DEVELOP. THEREFORE HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE MAINLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE INDICATING UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG MU CAPE
INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THERE SHOULD LOW
LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE FROM SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH A 50-60
KT UPPER LEVEL JET WHICH COULD AID IN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT
AND STRENGTH OF ANY STORMS THAT MIGHT DEVELOP.

COLD FRONT STILL ON SCHEDULE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT IS STILL SOMEWHAT OF A QUESTION WHICH COULD HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME
THINKING THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA AROUND NOON AND
MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THIS MEANS SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUD COVER IN THE WEST AND NORTH
SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

COOLER MONDAY WITH LESSER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY REMAIN STABLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THERE IS AT LEAST A
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A CONTINUATION OF THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL OF CONDITIONS DRYING A BIT BY LATE THIS WEEK...BUT GIVEN
RECENT MODEL TRENDS OF UNDER ESTIMATING BL MOISTURE...NOT VERY
CONFIDENT WITH THIS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER BEHIND A RELATIVELY
STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. LOW TEMPERATURES MAY
DROP INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. FOR TUESDAY MODELS SHOW THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY...ALTHOUGH LLVL WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REBOUND TUESDAY...BUT
WITH PW/S OVER 1 INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGH PLAINS...ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAINS...SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS
WELL. WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD AND STALLS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THERE IS A DECENT
CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BOTH DAYS DUE TO A COMBINATION
OF COOL AIR ALOFT PUSHING INTO THE AREA...AMPLE MOISTURE...AND
FAVORABLE 0-6KM SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. INCREASED
POP BETWEEN 40 TO 60 PERCENT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD
CHANCE OF MODERATE TO HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AROUND
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS. GFS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
CENTERED AROUND TEXAS WITH THE CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW SLIDING
EASTWARD BY FRIDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING TO MONSOON MOISTURE
INCREASING AND PUSHING NORTH BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. EXPECT A
FEW DRIER DAYS FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTER NEBRASKA...BUT
THIS MAY BE SHORT-LIVED AS MONSOON MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD INTO
COLORADO AND WYOMING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR THE
SOUTHEAST WYOMING TERMINALS IN ADDITION TO KAIA AND KCDR. GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY...WITH BRIEF MVFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE IN MODERATE RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT
WIDESPREAD PREVAILING GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY ALONG WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. STRONG ERRATIC WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBILITY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BRING WETTING RAINS TO MOST OF THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY
WITH THE MAIN CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...SML



000
FXUS65 KCYS 041818
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1218 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FORCING DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT
IS THE MAIN FACTOR IN ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WHICH ARE OCCURRING
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER THROUGH AROUND
SUNRISE BEFORE DYING OFF COMPLETELY.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TO SOME OF THE HIGHEST READINGS OF THE YEAR...MAKING FOR A VERY
WARM 4TH OF JULY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 80S TO MID
90S OVER MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.

AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE NO STRONG FORCING MECHANISMS
IN PLACE TODAY AND THAT BEING THE CASE IT IS TOUGH TO PINPOINT
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOR CERTAIN DEVELOP. THEREFORE HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE MAINLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE INDICATING UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG MU CAPE
INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THERE SHOULD LOW
LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE FROM SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH A 50-60
KT UPPER LEVEL JET WHICH COULD AID IN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT
AND STRENGTH OF ANY STORMS THAT MIGHT DEVELOP.

COLD FRONT STILL ON SCHEDULE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT IS STILL SOMEWHAT OF A QUESTION WHICH COULD HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME
THINKING THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA AROUND NOON AND
MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THIS MEANS SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUD COVER IN THE WEST AND NORTH
SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

COOLER MONDAY WITH LESSER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY REMAIN STABLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THERE IS AT LEAST A
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A CONTINUATION OF THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL OF CONDITIONS DRYING A BIT BY LATE THIS WEEK...BUT GIVEN
RECENT MODEL TRENDS OF UNDER ESTIMATING BL MOISTURE...NOT VERY
CONFIDENT WITH THIS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER BEHIND A RELATIVELY
STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. LOW TEMPERATURES MAY
DROP INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. FOR TUESDAY MODELS SHOW THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY...ALTHOUGH LLVL WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REBOUND TUESDAY...BUT
WITH PW/S OVER 1 INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGH PLAINS...ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAINS...SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS
WELL. WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD AND STALLS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THERE IS A DECENT
CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BOTH DAYS DUE TO A COMBINATION
OF COOL AIR ALOFT PUSHING INTO THE AREA...AMPLE MOISTURE...AND
FAVORABLE 0-6KM SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. INCREASED
POP BETWEEN 40 TO 60 PERCENT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD
CHANCE OF MODERATE TO HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AROUND
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS. GFS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
CENTERED AROUND TEXAS WITH THE CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW SLIDING
EASTWARD BY FRIDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING TO MONSOON MOISTURE
INCREASING AND PUSHING NORTH BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. EXPECT A
FEW DRIER DAYS FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTER NEBRASKA...BUT
THIS MAY BE SHORT-LIVED AS MONSOON MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD INTO
COLORADO AND WYOMING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR THE
SOUTHEAST WYOMING TERMINALS IN ADDITION TO KAIA AND KCDR. GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY...WITH BRIEF MVFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE IN MODERATE RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT
WIDESPREAD PREVAILING GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY ALONG WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. STRONG ERRATIC WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBILITY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BRING WETTING RAINS TO MOST OF THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY
WITH THE MAIN CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...SML




000
FXUS65 KRIW 041736
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1136 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

IN HONOR OF THE 239TH BIRTHDAY OF THE COUNTRY...ACTUALLY THE
DECLARATION WAS APPROVED ON THE SECOND...BUT ANYWAY...WE PRESENT
THE DISCUSSION OF THE FOURTH OF JULY WEATHER THIS MORNING IN THE
FORM OF THE PREAMBLE OF THE DECLARATION OF INDEPENDENCE.

WE HOLD THIS WEATHER TO BE SELF-EVIDENT...THAT WESTERN AND CENTRAL
WYOMING WILL BE ENDOWED...BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH CERTAIN
UNALIENABLE CONDITIONS...WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES...LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS...AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

THAT TO SECURE THESE CONDITIONS...A WESTERLY FLOW INSTITUTED BY LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST...DERIVING THEIR POWERS FROM THE JET STREAM FLOW...THAT
WHENEVER THE STRONG CAP IS PUNCTURED BY LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...IT
IS THE RIGHT OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO ALTER THE HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS...AND INSTITUTE ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...LAYING ITS FOUNDATION ON HIGH LEVEL HEAT SOURCE AND
DRIFTING EAST IN SUCH FORM...AS TO THEM SHALL SEEM MOST LIKELY TO
EFFECT COOK OUTS...PARTIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

PRUDENCE...INDEED...WILL DICTATE THAT GET TOGETHERS LONG PLANNED
SHOULD NOT BE CHANGED FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY MOST OF THE
TIME...AND ACCORDINGLY ALL EXPERIENCE HATH SHOWN...THAT AREAS NEAR
MOUNTAINS ARE MOST DISPOSED TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE STORMS ARE
SUFFERABLE...THEN TO RIGHT THEMSELVES BY NOTING THAT THEY WILL PASS
QUICKLY AS WE ARE ACCUSTOMED. BUT WHEN A LONG TRAIN OF HOT DAYS AND
POP UP STORMS...OCCURRING INVARIABLY AT THE SAME TIME...SHOWS A
DESIGN TYPICAL OF THE WYOMING SUMMERTIME...IT IS COMMON...AND WELL
KNOWN...TO THROW OFF SUCH FORECAST...AND TO PROVIDE THE NEED FOR
UPDATES.

NOW BACK TO YOUR REGULARLY SCHEDULED DISCUSSION. THE HEAT WILL
PEAK TODAY AS THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BE AT PEAK STRENGTH. ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS SHOULD END BY DAYBREAK WITH THE MORNING AND MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON BEING MAINLY DRY. AS FOR THE PESKY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...TWO AREAS LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE. ONE WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE A PUSH OF MOISTURE FROM COLORADO
MAY FIRE A FEW STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SWEETWATER
COUNTY. THE OTHER WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...FROM THE ABSAROKAS TO
THE BIG HORNS...IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THESE LOCATIONS AND THE
BIG HORN BASIN. WITH THE CAP STRONGER TODAY...WE EXPECT FEWER
STORMS THAN YESTERDAY...BUT ANY COULD TURN STRONG LIKE THE
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. BUT...WE CAN NOT RULE ONE OUT FOR ANYONE...JUST
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO IT IN EVERYWHERE. WILL BE ANOTHER HOT ONE
AS WELL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

HOWEVER...CHANGES ARE COMING AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE
COURTESY OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH AND SOME
MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW
FAST THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH HOWEVER. IN SOME LOCATIONS...THERE
IS A DIFFERENCE OF UP TO 12 DEGREES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. FOR
NOW...WE HAVE PLAYED THE MIDDLE. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10
TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALSO PLAY INTO HOW
STRONG THE STORMS WILL BE. AT THIS TIME...LIFTED INDICES ARE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE...FALLING DOWN TO MINUS 4 IN SOME LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...CAPE IS RELATIVELY LIMITED. IN ADDITION...INCREASED CLOUD
COVER MY LIMIT INSTABILITY AND THE BEST JET DYNAMICS REMAIN OVER
MONTANA. THE BIG THREAT LOOKS TO BE HEAVY RAIN...AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RISE TO WELL OVER AN INCH ACROSS MANY AREAS. CONTINUITY
HAD HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST AND WE KEPT THAT WORDING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS WELL AS THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTH. THE MODELS HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THIS HOWEVER WITH BOTH
AMOUNT AND PLACEMENT...WITH THE NAM QUITE WET AND THE GFS DRIER.
AGAIN...FOR NOW WE SPLIT THE MIDDLE.

UNSETTLED WEATHER ALSO LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS WELL.
PREVIOUS RUNS THAT SHOWED HEAVIER SHOWERS ON MONDAY MORNING HAVE
BACKED OFF SO WE BACKED OFF POPS AND QPF. MORE MOISTURE SURGING IN
FROM THE SOUTH WILL FIRE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS TIME...THE BEST COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND WEST. AGAIN...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN COVERAGE WITH
THE NAM DRIER THAN THE GFS. CONTINUITY LOOKED REASONABLE SO WE MADE
FEW CHANGES. WITH THE MOISTURE PUSHING EASTWARD...SO WILL THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE WEATHER LOOKS UNSETTLED OVER THE AREA.
IT LOOKS LIKE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
RIGHT THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THE TIMING OF THE LONG RANGE
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE CLOSE WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING
WEST TO EAST ACROSS WY TUE NIGHT. THEN A NEW SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST
OVER MONTANA WEDNESDAY AND INTO NORTHERN WY WED NIGHT. MODEL TIMING
RIGHT NOW WITH THIS SYSTEM IS CLOSE. SOME COOLING AS A FRONT GETS
KICKED SOUTHWARD ON WED. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SENDING TEMPS BACK TO VERY WARM TO HOT WITH LESS COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THERE MAY BE MORE STORM COVERAGE
OVER THE WEST FRIDAY AS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY OCCUR. THIS
DEPENDS ON HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE MOVEMENT OF A WEATHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TRACK
YET TO BE DETERMINED AND WILL WATCH IT OVER THE COMING DAYS. NEXT
SATURDAY WILL BE HOT AND MOSTLY DRY EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AS THE WEATHER
SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH IDAHO INTO MONTANA.

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE AIRPORTS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.
A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE ACROSS SOUTHERN
WYOMING WHERE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BLOSSOM IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY VCNTY AND SOUTH OF A KRKS-KCPR
LINE. A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST WILL
KEEP ISOLD -TSRA CONFINED MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE MTNS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AROUND 06Z
SUNDAY...SPREADING ISOLD SHOWERS SOUTH INTO VCNTY KCOD-KWRL-KBYG
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS REMAINING PREVAILING VFR BEHIND
THE FRONT.  12Z THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
FROM MONTANA...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE UP FROM THE GREAT
BASIN COLLIDING WITH THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE WITH
MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH TERRAIN
BECOMING OBSCURED. LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
BRIEFLY IMPACT ANY OF THE AIRPORTS.

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ONE MORE HOT AND MAINLY DRY DAY
FOR MOST AREAS. EXPECT GOOD TO EXCELLENT SMOKE DISPERSAL ACROSS THE
AREA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS IN SOME OF
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. A GUSTY BREEZE MAY DEVELOP IN THE SOUTH AND
WEST. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EAST OF THE DIVIDE BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN IN
PREVIOUS DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY AND BRING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER HUMIDITY AND A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.&&

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS



000
FXUS63 KUNR 041736
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1136 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT COULD
DRIFT INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
BIGHORNS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF WYOMING. SOME OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON FIRING STORMS IN THE BLACK
HILLS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ERODE NEARLY ALL OF
THE CIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON...WILL STILL KEEP
ISOLATED CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THE BLACK HILLS THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE OFF ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AFTER 21Z TODAY. GIVEN CAPE AND
SHEAR PARAMETERS...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MB WITH COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT...LOW ALONG FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL
MT...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL WY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE PER
KUDX VWP AND MODEL DEPICTIONS. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION SUPPORTING
ISOLATED -SHRA/TS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER SUGGESTED ON WATER VAPOUR
OVER MT DROPS SOUTHEAST. FEATURE WILL SUPPORT MOVEMENT OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN SD TODAY. AROUND
2KJ/KG MLCAPE POOLS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH 15-20M/S 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT ISN/T CLEAR WHERE UPPER SUPPORT/NON-
SUPPORT WILL COME FROM...PERHAPS MT SHORTWAVE...OR PERHAPS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEHIND CENTRAL DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
SUBSIDENCE. IF CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR. ANY
SUPERCELL WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR
ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY AND NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AS TROUGH
MOVES EAST. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF CWA
TOWARD MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG IT. LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-
E ADVECTION EAST OF CWA. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS DOWN. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TAIL DROPS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/ND/SD. RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY FROM 2-
4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS AND OF COLD FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT JUST ALONG/BEHIND COLD
FRONT. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A BLOB OF SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING HOURS AND SCOOT EAST. HIGH POPS WARRANTED
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
CLOUDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE NRN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE CWA BY MON MRNG...WITH DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...
ESPECIALLY TOWARD CENTRAL SD...WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE. LOCAL AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MCKEMY
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KUNR 041736
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1136 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT COULD
DRIFT INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
BIGHORNS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF WYOMING. SOME OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON FIRING STORMS IN THE BLACK
HILLS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ERODE NEARLY ALL OF
THE CIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON...WILL STILL KEEP
ISOLATED CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THE BLACK HILLS THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE OFF ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AFTER 21Z TODAY. GIVEN CAPE AND
SHEAR PARAMETERS...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MB WITH COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT...LOW ALONG FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL
MT...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL WY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE PER
KUDX VWP AND MODEL DEPICTIONS. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION SUPPORTING
ISOLATED -SHRA/TS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER SUGGESTED ON WATER VAPOUR
OVER MT DROPS SOUTHEAST. FEATURE WILL SUPPORT MOVEMENT OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN SD TODAY. AROUND
2KJ/KG MLCAPE POOLS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH 15-20M/S 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT ISN/T CLEAR WHERE UPPER SUPPORT/NON-
SUPPORT WILL COME FROM...PERHAPS MT SHORTWAVE...OR PERHAPS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEHIND CENTRAL DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
SUBSIDENCE. IF CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR. ANY
SUPERCELL WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR
ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY AND NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AS TROUGH
MOVES EAST. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF CWA
TOWARD MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG IT. LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-
E ADVECTION EAST OF CWA. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS DOWN. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TAIL DROPS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/ND/SD. RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY FROM 2-
4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS AND OF COLD FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT JUST ALONG/BEHIND COLD
FRONT. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A BLOB OF SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING HOURS AND SCOOT EAST. HIGH POPS WARRANTED
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
CLOUDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE NRN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE CWA BY MON MRNG...WITH DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...
ESPECIALLY TOWARD CENTRAL SD...WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE. LOCAL AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MCKEMY
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KUNR 041736
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1136 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT COULD
DRIFT INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
BIGHORNS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF WYOMING. SOME OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON FIRING STORMS IN THE BLACK
HILLS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ERODE NEARLY ALL OF
THE CIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON...WILL STILL KEEP
ISOLATED CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THE BLACK HILLS THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE OFF ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AFTER 21Z TODAY. GIVEN CAPE AND
SHEAR PARAMETERS...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MB WITH COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT...LOW ALONG FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL
MT...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL WY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE PER
KUDX VWP AND MODEL DEPICTIONS. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION SUPPORTING
ISOLATED -SHRA/TS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER SUGGESTED ON WATER VAPOUR
OVER MT DROPS SOUTHEAST. FEATURE WILL SUPPORT MOVEMENT OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN SD TODAY. AROUND
2KJ/KG MLCAPE POOLS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH 15-20M/S 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT ISN/T CLEAR WHERE UPPER SUPPORT/NON-
SUPPORT WILL COME FROM...PERHAPS MT SHORTWAVE...OR PERHAPS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEHIND CENTRAL DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
SUBSIDENCE. IF CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR. ANY
SUPERCELL WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR
ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY AND NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AS TROUGH
MOVES EAST. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF CWA
TOWARD MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG IT. LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-
E ADVECTION EAST OF CWA. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS DOWN. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TAIL DROPS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/ND/SD. RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY FROM 2-
4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS AND OF COLD FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT JUST ALONG/BEHIND COLD
FRONT. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A BLOB OF SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING HOURS AND SCOOT EAST. HIGH POPS WARRANTED
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
CLOUDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE NRN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE CWA BY MON MRNG...WITH DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...
ESPECIALLY TOWARD CENTRAL SD...WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE. LOCAL AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MCKEMY
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KUNR 041736
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1136 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT COULD
DRIFT INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
BIGHORNS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF WYOMING. SOME OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON FIRING STORMS IN THE BLACK
HILLS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ERODE NEARLY ALL OF
THE CIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON...WILL STILL KEEP
ISOLATED CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THE BLACK HILLS THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE OFF ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AFTER 21Z TODAY. GIVEN CAPE AND
SHEAR PARAMETERS...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MB WITH COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT...LOW ALONG FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL
MT...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL WY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE PER
KUDX VWP AND MODEL DEPICTIONS. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION SUPPORTING
ISOLATED -SHRA/TS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER SUGGESTED ON WATER VAPOUR
OVER MT DROPS SOUTHEAST. FEATURE WILL SUPPORT MOVEMENT OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN SD TODAY. AROUND
2KJ/KG MLCAPE POOLS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH 15-20M/S 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT ISN/T CLEAR WHERE UPPER SUPPORT/NON-
SUPPORT WILL COME FROM...PERHAPS MT SHORTWAVE...OR PERHAPS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEHIND CENTRAL DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
SUBSIDENCE. IF CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR. ANY
SUPERCELL WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR
ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY AND NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AS TROUGH
MOVES EAST. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF CWA
TOWARD MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG IT. LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-
E ADVECTION EAST OF CWA. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS DOWN. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TAIL DROPS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/ND/SD. RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY FROM 2-
4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS AND OF COLD FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT JUST ALONG/BEHIND COLD
FRONT. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A BLOB OF SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING HOURS AND SCOOT EAST. HIGH POPS WARRANTED
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
CLOUDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE NRN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE CWA BY MON MRNG...WITH DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...
ESPECIALLY TOWARD CENTRAL SD...WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE. LOCAL AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MCKEMY
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS65 KRIW 041736
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1136 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

IN HONOR OF THE 239TH BIRTHDAY OF THE COUNTRY...ACTUALLY THE
DECLARATION WAS APPROVED ON THE SECOND...BUT ANYWAY...WE PRESENT
THE DISCUSSION OF THE FOURTH OF JULY WEATHER THIS MORNING IN THE
FORM OF THE PREAMBLE OF THE DECLARATION OF INDEPENDENCE.

WE HOLD THIS WEATHER TO BE SELF-EVIDENT...THAT WESTERN AND CENTRAL
WYOMING WILL BE ENDOWED...BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH CERTAIN
UNALIENABLE CONDITIONS...WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES...LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS...AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

THAT TO SECURE THESE CONDITIONS...A WESTERLY FLOW INSTITUTED BY LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST...DERIVING THEIR POWERS FROM THE JET STREAM FLOW...THAT
WHENEVER THE STRONG CAP IS PUNCTURED BY LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...IT
IS THE RIGHT OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO ALTER THE HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS...AND INSTITUTE ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...LAYING ITS FOUNDATION ON HIGH LEVEL HEAT SOURCE AND
DRIFTING EAST IN SUCH FORM...AS TO THEM SHALL SEEM MOST LIKELY TO
EFFECT COOK OUTS...PARTIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

PRUDENCE...INDEED...WILL DICTATE THAT GET TOGETHERS LONG PLANNED
SHOULD NOT BE CHANGED FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY MOST OF THE
TIME...AND ACCORDINGLY ALL EXPERIENCE HATH SHOWN...THAT AREAS NEAR
MOUNTAINS ARE MOST DISPOSED TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE STORMS ARE
SUFFERABLE...THEN TO RIGHT THEMSELVES BY NOTING THAT THEY WILL PASS
QUICKLY AS WE ARE ACCUSTOMED. BUT WHEN A LONG TRAIN OF HOT DAYS AND
POP UP STORMS...OCCURRING INVARIABLY AT THE SAME TIME...SHOWS A
DESIGN TYPICAL OF THE WYOMING SUMMERTIME...IT IS COMMON...AND WELL
KNOWN...TO THROW OFF SUCH FORECAST...AND TO PROVIDE THE NEED FOR
UPDATES.

NOW BACK TO YOUR REGULARLY SCHEDULED DISCUSSION. THE HEAT WILL
PEAK TODAY AS THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BE AT PEAK STRENGTH. ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS SHOULD END BY DAYBREAK WITH THE MORNING AND MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON BEING MAINLY DRY. AS FOR THE PESKY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...TWO AREAS LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE. ONE WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE A PUSH OF MOISTURE FROM COLORADO
MAY FIRE A FEW STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SWEETWATER
COUNTY. THE OTHER WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...FROM THE ABSAROKAS TO
THE BIG HORNS...IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THESE LOCATIONS AND THE
BIG HORN BASIN. WITH THE CAP STRONGER TODAY...WE EXPECT FEWER
STORMS THAN YESTERDAY...BUT ANY COULD TURN STRONG LIKE THE
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. BUT...WE CAN NOT RULE ONE OUT FOR ANYONE...JUST
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO IT IN EVERYWHERE. WILL BE ANOTHER HOT ONE
AS WELL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

HOWEVER...CHANGES ARE COMING AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE
COURTESY OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH AND SOME
MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW
FAST THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH HOWEVER. IN SOME LOCATIONS...THERE
IS A DIFFERENCE OF UP TO 12 DEGREES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. FOR
NOW...WE HAVE PLAYED THE MIDDLE. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10
TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALSO PLAY INTO HOW
STRONG THE STORMS WILL BE. AT THIS TIME...LIFTED INDICES ARE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE...FALLING DOWN TO MINUS 4 IN SOME LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...CAPE IS RELATIVELY LIMITED. IN ADDITION...INCREASED CLOUD
COVER MY LIMIT INSTABILITY AND THE BEST JET DYNAMICS REMAIN OVER
MONTANA. THE BIG THREAT LOOKS TO BE HEAVY RAIN...AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RISE TO WELL OVER AN INCH ACROSS MANY AREAS. CONTINUITY
HAD HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST AND WE KEPT THAT WORDING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS WELL AS THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTH. THE MODELS HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THIS HOWEVER WITH BOTH
AMOUNT AND PLACEMENT...WITH THE NAM QUITE WET AND THE GFS DRIER.
AGAIN...FOR NOW WE SPLIT THE MIDDLE.

UNSETTLED WEATHER ALSO LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS WELL.
PREVIOUS RUNS THAT SHOWED HEAVIER SHOWERS ON MONDAY MORNING HAVE
BACKED OFF SO WE BACKED OFF POPS AND QPF. MORE MOISTURE SURGING IN
FROM THE SOUTH WILL FIRE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS TIME...THE BEST COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND WEST. AGAIN...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN COVERAGE WITH
THE NAM DRIER THAN THE GFS. CONTINUITY LOOKED REASONABLE SO WE MADE
FEW CHANGES. WITH THE MOISTURE PUSHING EASTWARD...SO WILL THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE WEATHER LOOKS UNSETTLED OVER THE AREA.
IT LOOKS LIKE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
RIGHT THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THE TIMING OF THE LONG RANGE
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE CLOSE WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING
WEST TO EAST ACROSS WY TUE NIGHT. THEN A NEW SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST
OVER MONTANA WEDNESDAY AND INTO NORTHERN WY WED NIGHT. MODEL TIMING
RIGHT NOW WITH THIS SYSTEM IS CLOSE. SOME COOLING AS A FRONT GETS
KICKED SOUTHWARD ON WED. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SENDING TEMPS BACK TO VERY WARM TO HOT WITH LESS COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THERE MAY BE MORE STORM COVERAGE
OVER THE WEST FRIDAY AS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY OCCUR. THIS
DEPENDS ON HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE MOVEMENT OF A WEATHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TRACK
YET TO BE DETERMINED AND WILL WATCH IT OVER THE COMING DAYS. NEXT
SATURDAY WILL BE HOT AND MOSTLY DRY EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AS THE WEATHER
SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH IDAHO INTO MONTANA.

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE AIRPORTS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.
A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE ACROSS SOUTHERN
WYOMING WHERE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BLOSSOM IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY VCNTY AND SOUTH OF A KRKS-KCPR
LINE. A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST WILL
KEEP ISOLD -TSRA CONFINED MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE MTNS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AROUND 06Z
SUNDAY...SPREADING ISOLD SHOWERS SOUTH INTO VCNTY KCOD-KWRL-KBYG
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS REMAINING PREVAILING VFR BEHIND
THE FRONT.  12Z THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
FROM MONTANA...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE UP FROM THE GREAT
BASIN COLLIDING WITH THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE WITH
MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH TERRAIN
BECOMING OBSCURED. LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
BRIEFLY IMPACT ANY OF THE AIRPORTS.

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ONE MORE HOT AND MAINLY DRY DAY
FOR MOST AREAS. EXPECT GOOD TO EXCELLENT SMOKE DISPERSAL ACROSS THE
AREA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS IN SOME OF
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. A GUSTY BREEZE MAY DEVELOP IN THE SOUTH AND
WEST. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EAST OF THE DIVIDE BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN IN
PREVIOUS DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY AND BRING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER HUMIDITY AND A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.&&

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS




000
FXUS65 KRIW 041736
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1136 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

IN HONOR OF THE 239TH BIRTHDAY OF THE COUNTRY...ACTUALLY THE
DECLARATION WAS APPROVED ON THE SECOND...BUT ANYWAY...WE PRESENT
THE DISCUSSION OF THE FOURTH OF JULY WEATHER THIS MORNING IN THE
FORM OF THE PREAMBLE OF THE DECLARATION OF INDEPENDENCE.

WE HOLD THIS WEATHER TO BE SELF-EVIDENT...THAT WESTERN AND CENTRAL
WYOMING WILL BE ENDOWED...BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH CERTAIN
UNALIENABLE CONDITIONS...WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES...LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS...AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

THAT TO SECURE THESE CONDITIONS...A WESTERLY FLOW INSTITUTED BY LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST...DERIVING THEIR POWERS FROM THE JET STREAM FLOW...THAT
WHENEVER THE STRONG CAP IS PUNCTURED BY LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...IT
IS THE RIGHT OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO ALTER THE HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS...AND INSTITUTE ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...LAYING ITS FOUNDATION ON HIGH LEVEL HEAT SOURCE AND
DRIFTING EAST IN SUCH FORM...AS TO THEM SHALL SEEM MOST LIKELY TO
EFFECT COOK OUTS...PARTIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

PRUDENCE...INDEED...WILL DICTATE THAT GET TOGETHERS LONG PLANNED
SHOULD NOT BE CHANGED FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY MOST OF THE
TIME...AND ACCORDINGLY ALL EXPERIENCE HATH SHOWN...THAT AREAS NEAR
MOUNTAINS ARE MOST DISPOSED TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE STORMS ARE
SUFFERABLE...THEN TO RIGHT THEMSELVES BY NOTING THAT THEY WILL PASS
QUICKLY AS WE ARE ACCUSTOMED. BUT WHEN A LONG TRAIN OF HOT DAYS AND
POP UP STORMS...OCCURRING INVARIABLY AT THE SAME TIME...SHOWS A
DESIGN TYPICAL OF THE WYOMING SUMMERTIME...IT IS COMMON...AND WELL
KNOWN...TO THROW OFF SUCH FORECAST...AND TO PROVIDE THE NEED FOR
UPDATES.

NOW BACK TO YOUR REGULARLY SCHEDULED DISCUSSION. THE HEAT WILL
PEAK TODAY AS THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BE AT PEAK STRENGTH. ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS SHOULD END BY DAYBREAK WITH THE MORNING AND MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON BEING MAINLY DRY. AS FOR THE PESKY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...TWO AREAS LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE. ONE WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE A PUSH OF MOISTURE FROM COLORADO
MAY FIRE A FEW STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SWEETWATER
COUNTY. THE OTHER WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...FROM THE ABSAROKAS TO
THE BIG HORNS...IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THESE LOCATIONS AND THE
BIG HORN BASIN. WITH THE CAP STRONGER TODAY...WE EXPECT FEWER
STORMS THAN YESTERDAY...BUT ANY COULD TURN STRONG LIKE THE
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. BUT...WE CAN NOT RULE ONE OUT FOR ANYONE...JUST
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO IT IN EVERYWHERE. WILL BE ANOTHER HOT ONE
AS WELL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

HOWEVER...CHANGES ARE COMING AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE
COURTESY OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH AND SOME
MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW
FAST THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH HOWEVER. IN SOME LOCATIONS...THERE
IS A DIFFERENCE OF UP TO 12 DEGREES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. FOR
NOW...WE HAVE PLAYED THE MIDDLE. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10
TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALSO PLAY INTO HOW
STRONG THE STORMS WILL BE. AT THIS TIME...LIFTED INDICES ARE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE...FALLING DOWN TO MINUS 4 IN SOME LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...CAPE IS RELATIVELY LIMITED. IN ADDITION...INCREASED CLOUD
COVER MY LIMIT INSTABILITY AND THE BEST JET DYNAMICS REMAIN OVER
MONTANA. THE BIG THREAT LOOKS TO BE HEAVY RAIN...AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RISE TO WELL OVER AN INCH ACROSS MANY AREAS. CONTINUITY
HAD HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST AND WE KEPT THAT WORDING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS WELL AS THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTH. THE MODELS HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THIS HOWEVER WITH BOTH
AMOUNT AND PLACEMENT...WITH THE NAM QUITE WET AND THE GFS DRIER.
AGAIN...FOR NOW WE SPLIT THE MIDDLE.

UNSETTLED WEATHER ALSO LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS WELL.
PREVIOUS RUNS THAT SHOWED HEAVIER SHOWERS ON MONDAY MORNING HAVE
BACKED OFF SO WE BACKED OFF POPS AND QPF. MORE MOISTURE SURGING IN
FROM THE SOUTH WILL FIRE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS TIME...THE BEST COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND WEST. AGAIN...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN COVERAGE WITH
THE NAM DRIER THAN THE GFS. CONTINUITY LOOKED REASONABLE SO WE MADE
FEW CHANGES. WITH THE MOISTURE PUSHING EASTWARD...SO WILL THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE WEATHER LOOKS UNSETTLED OVER THE AREA.
IT LOOKS LIKE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
RIGHT THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THE TIMING OF THE LONG RANGE
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE CLOSE WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING
WEST TO EAST ACROSS WY TUE NIGHT. THEN A NEW SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST
OVER MONTANA WEDNESDAY AND INTO NORTHERN WY WED NIGHT. MODEL TIMING
RIGHT NOW WITH THIS SYSTEM IS CLOSE. SOME COOLING AS A FRONT GETS
KICKED SOUTHWARD ON WED. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SENDING TEMPS BACK TO VERY WARM TO HOT WITH LESS COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THERE MAY BE MORE STORM COVERAGE
OVER THE WEST FRIDAY AS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY OCCUR. THIS
DEPENDS ON HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE MOVEMENT OF A WEATHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TRACK
YET TO BE DETERMINED AND WILL WATCH IT OVER THE COMING DAYS. NEXT
SATURDAY WILL BE HOT AND MOSTLY DRY EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AS THE WEATHER
SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH IDAHO INTO MONTANA.

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE AIRPORTS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.
A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE ACROSS SOUTHERN
WYOMING WHERE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BLOSSOM IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY VCNTY AND SOUTH OF A KRKS-KCPR
LINE. A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST WILL
KEEP ISOLD -TSRA CONFINED MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE MTNS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AROUND 06Z
SUNDAY...SPREADING ISOLD SHOWERS SOUTH INTO VCNTY KCOD-KWRL-KBYG
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS REMAINING PREVAILING VFR BEHIND
THE FRONT.  12Z THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
FROM MONTANA...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE UP FROM THE GREAT
BASIN COLLIDING WITH THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE WITH
MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH TERRAIN
BECOMING OBSCURED. LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
BRIEFLY IMPACT ANY OF THE AIRPORTS.

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ONE MORE HOT AND MAINLY DRY DAY
FOR MOST AREAS. EXPECT GOOD TO EXCELLENT SMOKE DISPERSAL ACROSS THE
AREA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS IN SOME OF
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. A GUSTY BREEZE MAY DEVELOP IN THE SOUTH AND
WEST. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EAST OF THE DIVIDE BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN IN
PREVIOUS DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY AND BRING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER HUMIDITY AND A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.&&

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS




000
FXUS65 KRIW 041736
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1136 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

IN HONOR OF THE 239TH BIRTHDAY OF THE COUNTRY...ACTUALLY THE
DECLARATION WAS APPROVED ON THE SECOND...BUT ANYWAY...WE PRESENT
THE DISCUSSION OF THE FOURTH OF JULY WEATHER THIS MORNING IN THE
FORM OF THE PREAMBLE OF THE DECLARATION OF INDEPENDENCE.

WE HOLD THIS WEATHER TO BE SELF-EVIDENT...THAT WESTERN AND CENTRAL
WYOMING WILL BE ENDOWED...BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH CERTAIN
UNALIENABLE CONDITIONS...WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES...LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS...AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

THAT TO SECURE THESE CONDITIONS...A WESTERLY FLOW INSTITUTED BY LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST...DERIVING THEIR POWERS FROM THE JET STREAM FLOW...THAT
WHENEVER THE STRONG CAP IS PUNCTURED BY LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...IT
IS THE RIGHT OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO ALTER THE HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS...AND INSTITUTE ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...LAYING ITS FOUNDATION ON HIGH LEVEL HEAT SOURCE AND
DRIFTING EAST IN SUCH FORM...AS TO THEM SHALL SEEM MOST LIKELY TO
EFFECT COOK OUTS...PARTIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

PRUDENCE...INDEED...WILL DICTATE THAT GET TOGETHERS LONG PLANNED
SHOULD NOT BE CHANGED FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY MOST OF THE
TIME...AND ACCORDINGLY ALL EXPERIENCE HATH SHOWN...THAT AREAS NEAR
MOUNTAINS ARE MOST DISPOSED TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE STORMS ARE
SUFFERABLE...THEN TO RIGHT THEMSELVES BY NOTING THAT THEY WILL PASS
QUICKLY AS WE ARE ACCUSTOMED. BUT WHEN A LONG TRAIN OF HOT DAYS AND
POP UP STORMS...OCCURRING INVARIABLY AT THE SAME TIME...SHOWS A
DESIGN TYPICAL OF THE WYOMING SUMMERTIME...IT IS COMMON...AND WELL
KNOWN...TO THROW OFF SUCH FORECAST...AND TO PROVIDE THE NEED FOR
UPDATES.

NOW BACK TO YOUR REGULARLY SCHEDULED DISCUSSION. THE HEAT WILL
PEAK TODAY AS THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BE AT PEAK STRENGTH. ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS SHOULD END BY DAYBREAK WITH THE MORNING AND MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON BEING MAINLY DRY. AS FOR THE PESKY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...TWO AREAS LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE. ONE WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE A PUSH OF MOISTURE FROM COLORADO
MAY FIRE A FEW STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SWEETWATER
COUNTY. THE OTHER WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...FROM THE ABSAROKAS TO
THE BIG HORNS...IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THESE LOCATIONS AND THE
BIG HORN BASIN. WITH THE CAP STRONGER TODAY...WE EXPECT FEWER
STORMS THAN YESTERDAY...BUT ANY COULD TURN STRONG LIKE THE
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. BUT...WE CAN NOT RULE ONE OUT FOR ANYONE...JUST
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO IT IN EVERYWHERE. WILL BE ANOTHER HOT ONE
AS WELL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

HOWEVER...CHANGES ARE COMING AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE
COURTESY OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH AND SOME
MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW
FAST THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH HOWEVER. IN SOME LOCATIONS...THERE
IS A DIFFERENCE OF UP TO 12 DEGREES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. FOR
NOW...WE HAVE PLAYED THE MIDDLE. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10
TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALSO PLAY INTO HOW
STRONG THE STORMS WILL BE. AT THIS TIME...LIFTED INDICES ARE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE...FALLING DOWN TO MINUS 4 IN SOME LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...CAPE IS RELATIVELY LIMITED. IN ADDITION...INCREASED CLOUD
COVER MY LIMIT INSTABILITY AND THE BEST JET DYNAMICS REMAIN OVER
MONTANA. THE BIG THREAT LOOKS TO BE HEAVY RAIN...AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RISE TO WELL OVER AN INCH ACROSS MANY AREAS. CONTINUITY
HAD HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST AND WE KEPT THAT WORDING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS WELL AS THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTH. THE MODELS HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THIS HOWEVER WITH BOTH
AMOUNT AND PLACEMENT...WITH THE NAM QUITE WET AND THE GFS DRIER.
AGAIN...FOR NOW WE SPLIT THE MIDDLE.

UNSETTLED WEATHER ALSO LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS WELL.
PREVIOUS RUNS THAT SHOWED HEAVIER SHOWERS ON MONDAY MORNING HAVE
BACKED OFF SO WE BACKED OFF POPS AND QPF. MORE MOISTURE SURGING IN
FROM THE SOUTH WILL FIRE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS TIME...THE BEST COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND WEST. AGAIN...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN COVERAGE WITH
THE NAM DRIER THAN THE GFS. CONTINUITY LOOKED REASONABLE SO WE MADE
FEW CHANGES. WITH THE MOISTURE PUSHING EASTWARD...SO WILL THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE WEATHER LOOKS UNSETTLED OVER THE AREA.
IT LOOKS LIKE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
RIGHT THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THE TIMING OF THE LONG RANGE
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE CLOSE WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING
WEST TO EAST ACROSS WY TUE NIGHT. THEN A NEW SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST
OVER MONTANA WEDNESDAY AND INTO NORTHERN WY WED NIGHT. MODEL TIMING
RIGHT NOW WITH THIS SYSTEM IS CLOSE. SOME COOLING AS A FRONT GETS
KICKED SOUTHWARD ON WED. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SENDING TEMPS BACK TO VERY WARM TO HOT WITH LESS COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THERE MAY BE MORE STORM COVERAGE
OVER THE WEST FRIDAY AS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY OCCUR. THIS
DEPENDS ON HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE MOVEMENT OF A WEATHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TRACK
YET TO BE DETERMINED AND WILL WATCH IT OVER THE COMING DAYS. NEXT
SATURDAY WILL BE HOT AND MOSTLY DRY EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AS THE WEATHER
SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH IDAHO INTO MONTANA.

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE AIRPORTS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.
A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE ACROSS SOUTHERN
WYOMING WHERE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BLOSSOM IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY VCNTY AND SOUTH OF A KRKS-KCPR
LINE. A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST WILL
KEEP ISOLD -TSRA CONFINED MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE MTNS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AROUND 06Z
SUNDAY...SPREADING ISOLD SHOWERS SOUTH INTO VCNTY KCOD-KWRL-KBYG
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS REMAINING PREVAILING VFR BEHIND
THE FRONT.  12Z THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
FROM MONTANA...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE UP FROM THE GREAT
BASIN COLLIDING WITH THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE WITH
MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH TERRAIN
BECOMING OBSCURED. LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
BRIEFLY IMPACT ANY OF THE AIRPORTS.

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ONE MORE HOT AND MAINLY DRY DAY
FOR MOST AREAS. EXPECT GOOD TO EXCELLENT SMOKE DISPERSAL ACROSS THE
AREA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS IN SOME OF
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. A GUSTY BREEZE MAY DEVELOP IN THE SOUTH AND
WEST. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EAST OF THE DIVIDE BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN IN
PREVIOUS DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY AND BRING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER HUMIDITY AND A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.&&

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS




000
FXUS65 KRIW 041736
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1136 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

IN HONOR OF THE 239TH BIRTHDAY OF THE COUNTRY...ACTUALLY THE
DECLARATION WAS APPROVED ON THE SECOND...BUT ANYWAY...WE PRESENT
THE DISCUSSION OF THE FOURTH OF JULY WEATHER THIS MORNING IN THE
FORM OF THE PREAMBLE OF THE DECLARATION OF INDEPENDENCE.

WE HOLD THIS WEATHER TO BE SELF-EVIDENT...THAT WESTERN AND CENTRAL
WYOMING WILL BE ENDOWED...BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH CERTAIN
UNALIENABLE CONDITIONS...WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES...LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS...AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

THAT TO SECURE THESE CONDITIONS...A WESTERLY FLOW INSTITUTED BY LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST...DERIVING THEIR POWERS FROM THE JET STREAM FLOW...THAT
WHENEVER THE STRONG CAP IS PUNCTURED BY LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...IT
IS THE RIGHT OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO ALTER THE HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS...AND INSTITUTE ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...LAYING ITS FOUNDATION ON HIGH LEVEL HEAT SOURCE AND
DRIFTING EAST IN SUCH FORM...AS TO THEM SHALL SEEM MOST LIKELY TO
EFFECT COOK OUTS...PARTIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

PRUDENCE...INDEED...WILL DICTATE THAT GET TOGETHERS LONG PLANNED
SHOULD NOT BE CHANGED FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY MOST OF THE
TIME...AND ACCORDINGLY ALL EXPERIENCE HATH SHOWN...THAT AREAS NEAR
MOUNTAINS ARE MOST DISPOSED TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE STORMS ARE
SUFFERABLE...THEN TO RIGHT THEMSELVES BY NOTING THAT THEY WILL PASS
QUICKLY AS WE ARE ACCUSTOMED. BUT WHEN A LONG TRAIN OF HOT DAYS AND
POP UP STORMS...OCCURRING INVARIABLY AT THE SAME TIME...SHOWS A
DESIGN TYPICAL OF THE WYOMING SUMMERTIME...IT IS COMMON...AND WELL
KNOWN...TO THROW OFF SUCH FORECAST...AND TO PROVIDE THE NEED FOR
UPDATES.

NOW BACK TO YOUR REGULARLY SCHEDULED DISCUSSION. THE HEAT WILL
PEAK TODAY AS THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BE AT PEAK STRENGTH. ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS SHOULD END BY DAYBREAK WITH THE MORNING AND MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON BEING MAINLY DRY. AS FOR THE PESKY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...TWO AREAS LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE. ONE WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE A PUSH OF MOISTURE FROM COLORADO
MAY FIRE A FEW STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SWEETWATER
COUNTY. THE OTHER WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...FROM THE ABSAROKAS TO
THE BIG HORNS...IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THESE LOCATIONS AND THE
BIG HORN BASIN. WITH THE CAP STRONGER TODAY...WE EXPECT FEWER
STORMS THAN YESTERDAY...BUT ANY COULD TURN STRONG LIKE THE
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. BUT...WE CAN NOT RULE ONE OUT FOR ANYONE...JUST
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO IT IN EVERYWHERE. WILL BE ANOTHER HOT ONE
AS WELL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

HOWEVER...CHANGES ARE COMING AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE
COURTESY OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH AND SOME
MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW
FAST THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH HOWEVER. IN SOME LOCATIONS...THERE
IS A DIFFERENCE OF UP TO 12 DEGREES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. FOR
NOW...WE HAVE PLAYED THE MIDDLE. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10
TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALSO PLAY INTO HOW
STRONG THE STORMS WILL BE. AT THIS TIME...LIFTED INDICES ARE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE...FALLING DOWN TO MINUS 4 IN SOME LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...CAPE IS RELATIVELY LIMITED. IN ADDITION...INCREASED CLOUD
COVER MY LIMIT INSTABILITY AND THE BEST JET DYNAMICS REMAIN OVER
MONTANA. THE BIG THREAT LOOKS TO BE HEAVY RAIN...AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RISE TO WELL OVER AN INCH ACROSS MANY AREAS. CONTINUITY
HAD HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST AND WE KEPT THAT WORDING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS WELL AS THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTH. THE MODELS HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THIS HOWEVER WITH BOTH
AMOUNT AND PLACEMENT...WITH THE NAM QUITE WET AND THE GFS DRIER.
AGAIN...FOR NOW WE SPLIT THE MIDDLE.

UNSETTLED WEATHER ALSO LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS WELL.
PREVIOUS RUNS THAT SHOWED HEAVIER SHOWERS ON MONDAY MORNING HAVE
BACKED OFF SO WE BACKED OFF POPS AND QPF. MORE MOISTURE SURGING IN
FROM THE SOUTH WILL FIRE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS TIME...THE BEST COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND WEST. AGAIN...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN COVERAGE WITH
THE NAM DRIER THAN THE GFS. CONTINUITY LOOKED REASONABLE SO WE MADE
FEW CHANGES. WITH THE MOISTURE PUSHING EASTWARD...SO WILL THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE WEATHER LOOKS UNSETTLED OVER THE AREA.
IT LOOKS LIKE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
RIGHT THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THE TIMING OF THE LONG RANGE
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE CLOSE WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING
WEST TO EAST ACROSS WY TUE NIGHT. THEN A NEW SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST
OVER MONTANA WEDNESDAY AND INTO NORTHERN WY WED NIGHT. MODEL TIMING
RIGHT NOW WITH THIS SYSTEM IS CLOSE. SOME COOLING AS A FRONT GETS
KICKED SOUTHWARD ON WED. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SENDING TEMPS BACK TO VERY WARM TO HOT WITH LESS COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THERE MAY BE MORE STORM COVERAGE
OVER THE WEST FRIDAY AS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY OCCUR. THIS
DEPENDS ON HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE MOVEMENT OF A WEATHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TRACK
YET TO BE DETERMINED AND WILL WATCH IT OVER THE COMING DAYS. NEXT
SATURDAY WILL BE HOT AND MOSTLY DRY EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AS THE WEATHER
SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH IDAHO INTO MONTANA.

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE AIRPORTS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.
A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE ACROSS SOUTHERN
WYOMING WHERE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BLOSSOM IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY VCNTY AND SOUTH OF A KRKS-KCPR
LINE. A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST WILL
KEEP ISOLD -TSRA CONFINED MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE MTNS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AROUND 06Z
SUNDAY...SPREADING ISOLD SHOWERS SOUTH INTO VCNTY KCOD-KWRL-KBYG
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS REMAINING PREVAILING VFR BEHIND
THE FRONT.  12Z THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
FROM MONTANA...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE UP FROM THE GREAT
BASIN COLLIDING WITH THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE WITH
MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH TERRAIN
BECOMING OBSCURED. LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
BRIEFLY IMPACT ANY OF THE AIRPORTS.

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ONE MORE HOT AND MAINLY DRY DAY
FOR MOST AREAS. EXPECT GOOD TO EXCELLENT SMOKE DISPERSAL ACROSS THE
AREA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS IN SOME OF
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. A GUSTY BREEZE MAY DEVELOP IN THE SOUTH AND
WEST. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EAST OF THE DIVIDE BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN IN
PREVIOUS DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY AND BRING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER HUMIDITY AND A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.&&

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS




000
FXUS63 KUNR 041736
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1136 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT COULD
DRIFT INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
BIGHORNS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF WYOMING. SOME OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON FIRING STORMS IN THE BLACK
HILLS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ERODE NEARLY ALL OF
THE CIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON...WILL STILL KEEP
ISOLATED CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THE BLACK HILLS THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE OFF ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AFTER 21Z TODAY. GIVEN CAPE AND
SHEAR PARAMETERS...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MB WITH COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT...LOW ALONG FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL
MT...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL WY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE PER
KUDX VWP AND MODEL DEPICTIONS. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION SUPPORTING
ISOLATED -SHRA/TS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER SUGGESTED ON WATER VAPOUR
OVER MT DROPS SOUTHEAST. FEATURE WILL SUPPORT MOVEMENT OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN SD TODAY. AROUND
2KJ/KG MLCAPE POOLS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH 15-20M/S 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT ISN/T CLEAR WHERE UPPER SUPPORT/NON-
SUPPORT WILL COME FROM...PERHAPS MT SHORTWAVE...OR PERHAPS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEHIND CENTRAL DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
SUBSIDENCE. IF CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR. ANY
SUPERCELL WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR
ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY AND NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AS TROUGH
MOVES EAST. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF CWA
TOWARD MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG IT. LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-
E ADVECTION EAST OF CWA. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS DOWN. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TAIL DROPS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/ND/SD. RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY FROM 2-
4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS AND OF COLD FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT JUST ALONG/BEHIND COLD
FRONT. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A BLOB OF SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING HOURS AND SCOOT EAST. HIGH POPS WARRANTED
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
CLOUDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE NRN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE CWA BY MON MRNG...WITH DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...
ESPECIALLY TOWARD CENTRAL SD...WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE. LOCAL AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MCKEMY
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KUNR 041736
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1136 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT COULD
DRIFT INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
BIGHORNS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF WYOMING. SOME OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON FIRING STORMS IN THE BLACK
HILLS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ERODE NEARLY ALL OF
THE CIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON...WILL STILL KEEP
ISOLATED CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THE BLACK HILLS THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE OFF ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AFTER 21Z TODAY. GIVEN CAPE AND
SHEAR PARAMETERS...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MB WITH COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT...LOW ALONG FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL
MT...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL WY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE PER
KUDX VWP AND MODEL DEPICTIONS. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION SUPPORTING
ISOLATED -SHRA/TS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER SUGGESTED ON WATER VAPOUR
OVER MT DROPS SOUTHEAST. FEATURE WILL SUPPORT MOVEMENT OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN SD TODAY. AROUND
2KJ/KG MLCAPE POOLS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH 15-20M/S 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT ISN/T CLEAR WHERE UPPER SUPPORT/NON-
SUPPORT WILL COME FROM...PERHAPS MT SHORTWAVE...OR PERHAPS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEHIND CENTRAL DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
SUBSIDENCE. IF CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR. ANY
SUPERCELL WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR
ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY AND NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AS TROUGH
MOVES EAST. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF CWA
TOWARD MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG IT. LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-
E ADVECTION EAST OF CWA. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS DOWN. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TAIL DROPS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/ND/SD. RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY FROM 2-
4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS AND OF COLD FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT JUST ALONG/BEHIND COLD
FRONT. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A BLOB OF SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING HOURS AND SCOOT EAST. HIGH POPS WARRANTED
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
CLOUDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE NRN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE CWA BY MON MRNG...WITH DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...
ESPECIALLY TOWARD CENTRAL SD...WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE. LOCAL AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MCKEMY
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS65 KRIW 041736
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1136 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

IN HONOR OF THE 239TH BIRTHDAY OF THE COUNTRY...ACTUALLY THE
DECLARATION WAS APPROVED ON THE SECOND...BUT ANYWAY...WE PRESENT
THE DISCUSSION OF THE FOURTH OF JULY WEATHER THIS MORNING IN THE
FORM OF THE PREAMBLE OF THE DECLARATION OF INDEPENDENCE.

WE HOLD THIS WEATHER TO BE SELF-EVIDENT...THAT WESTERN AND CENTRAL
WYOMING WILL BE ENDOWED...BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH CERTAIN
UNALIENABLE CONDITIONS...WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES...LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS...AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

THAT TO SECURE THESE CONDITIONS...A WESTERLY FLOW INSTITUTED BY LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST...DERIVING THEIR POWERS FROM THE JET STREAM FLOW...THAT
WHENEVER THE STRONG CAP IS PUNCTURED BY LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...IT
IS THE RIGHT OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO ALTER THE HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS...AND INSTITUTE ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...LAYING ITS FOUNDATION ON HIGH LEVEL HEAT SOURCE AND
DRIFTING EAST IN SUCH FORM...AS TO THEM SHALL SEEM MOST LIKELY TO
EFFECT COOK OUTS...PARTIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

PRUDENCE...INDEED...WILL DICTATE THAT GET TOGETHERS LONG PLANNED
SHOULD NOT BE CHANGED FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY MOST OF THE
TIME...AND ACCORDINGLY ALL EXPERIENCE HATH SHOWN...THAT AREAS NEAR
MOUNTAINS ARE MOST DISPOSED TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE STORMS ARE
SUFFERABLE...THEN TO RIGHT THEMSELVES BY NOTING THAT THEY WILL PASS
QUICKLY AS WE ARE ACCUSTOMED. BUT WHEN A LONG TRAIN OF HOT DAYS AND
POP UP STORMS...OCCURRING INVARIABLY AT THE SAME TIME...SHOWS A
DESIGN TYPICAL OF THE WYOMING SUMMERTIME...IT IS COMMON...AND WELL
KNOWN...TO THROW OFF SUCH FORECAST...AND TO PROVIDE THE NEED FOR
UPDATES.

NOW BACK TO YOUR REGULARLY SCHEDULED DISCUSSION. THE HEAT WILL
PEAK TODAY AS THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BE AT PEAK STRENGTH. ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS SHOULD END BY DAYBREAK WITH THE MORNING AND MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON BEING MAINLY DRY. AS FOR THE PESKY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...TWO AREAS LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE. ONE WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE A PUSH OF MOISTURE FROM COLORADO
MAY FIRE A FEW STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SWEETWATER
COUNTY. THE OTHER WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...FROM THE ABSAROKAS TO
THE BIG HORNS...IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THESE LOCATIONS AND THE
BIG HORN BASIN. WITH THE CAP STRONGER TODAY...WE EXPECT FEWER
STORMS THAN YESTERDAY...BUT ANY COULD TURN STRONG LIKE THE
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. BUT...WE CAN NOT RULE ONE OUT FOR ANYONE...JUST
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO IT IN EVERYWHERE. WILL BE ANOTHER HOT ONE
AS WELL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

HOWEVER...CHANGES ARE COMING AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE
COURTESY OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH AND SOME
MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW
FAST THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH HOWEVER. IN SOME LOCATIONS...THERE
IS A DIFFERENCE OF UP TO 12 DEGREES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. FOR
NOW...WE HAVE PLAYED THE MIDDLE. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10
TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALSO PLAY INTO HOW
STRONG THE STORMS WILL BE. AT THIS TIME...LIFTED INDICES ARE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE...FALLING DOWN TO MINUS 4 IN SOME LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...CAPE IS RELATIVELY LIMITED. IN ADDITION...INCREASED CLOUD
COVER MY LIMIT INSTABILITY AND THE BEST JET DYNAMICS REMAIN OVER
MONTANA. THE BIG THREAT LOOKS TO BE HEAVY RAIN...AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RISE TO WELL OVER AN INCH ACROSS MANY AREAS. CONTINUITY
HAD HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST AND WE KEPT THAT WORDING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS WELL AS THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTH. THE MODELS HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THIS HOWEVER WITH BOTH
AMOUNT AND PLACEMENT...WITH THE NAM QUITE WET AND THE GFS DRIER.
AGAIN...FOR NOW WE SPLIT THE MIDDLE.

UNSETTLED WEATHER ALSO LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS WELL.
PREVIOUS RUNS THAT SHOWED HEAVIER SHOWERS ON MONDAY MORNING HAVE
BACKED OFF SO WE BACKED OFF POPS AND QPF. MORE MOISTURE SURGING IN
FROM THE SOUTH WILL FIRE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS TIME...THE BEST COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND WEST. AGAIN...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN COVERAGE WITH
THE NAM DRIER THAN THE GFS. CONTINUITY LOOKED REASONABLE SO WE MADE
FEW CHANGES. WITH THE MOISTURE PUSHING EASTWARD...SO WILL THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE WEATHER LOOKS UNSETTLED OVER THE AREA.
IT LOOKS LIKE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
RIGHT THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THE TIMING OF THE LONG RANGE
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE CLOSE WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING
WEST TO EAST ACROSS WY TUE NIGHT. THEN A NEW SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST
OVER MONTANA WEDNESDAY AND INTO NORTHERN WY WED NIGHT. MODEL TIMING
RIGHT NOW WITH THIS SYSTEM IS CLOSE. SOME COOLING AS A FRONT GETS
KICKED SOUTHWARD ON WED. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SENDING TEMPS BACK TO VERY WARM TO HOT WITH LESS COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THERE MAY BE MORE STORM COVERAGE
OVER THE WEST FRIDAY AS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY OCCUR. THIS
DEPENDS ON HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE MOVEMENT OF A WEATHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TRACK
YET TO BE DETERMINED AND WILL WATCH IT OVER THE COMING DAYS. NEXT
SATURDAY WILL BE HOT AND MOSTLY DRY EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AS THE WEATHER
SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH IDAHO INTO MONTANA.

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE AIRPORTS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.
A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE ACROSS SOUTHERN
WYOMING WHERE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BLOSSOM IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY VCNTY AND SOUTH OF A KRKS-KCPR
LINE. A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST WILL
KEEP ISOLD -TSRA CONFINED MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE MTNS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AROUND 06Z
SUNDAY...SPREADING ISOLD SHOWERS SOUTH INTO VCNTY KCOD-KWRL-KBYG
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS REMAINING PREVAILING VFR BEHIND
THE FRONT.  12Z THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
FROM MONTANA...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE UP FROM THE GREAT
BASIN COLLIDING WITH THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE WITH
MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH TERRAIN
BECOMING OBSCURED. LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
BRIEFLY IMPACT ANY OF THE AIRPORTS.

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ONE MORE HOT AND MAINLY DRY DAY
FOR MOST AREAS. EXPECT GOOD TO EXCELLENT SMOKE DISPERSAL ACROSS THE
AREA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS IN SOME OF
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. A GUSTY BREEZE MAY DEVELOP IN THE SOUTH AND
WEST. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EAST OF THE DIVIDE BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN IN
PREVIOUS DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY AND BRING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER HUMIDITY AND A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.&&

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS




000
FXUS63 KUNR 041707
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1107 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT COULD
DRIFT INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
BIGHORNS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF WYOMING. SOME OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON FIRING STORMS IN THE BLACK
HILLS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ERODE NEARLY ALL OF
THE CIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON...WILL STILL KEEP
ISOLATED CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THE BLACK HILLS THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE OFF ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AFTER 21Z TODAY. GIVEN CAPE AND
SHEAR PARAMETERS...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MB WITH COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT...LOW ALONG FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL
MT...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL WY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE PER
KUDX VWP AND MODEL DEPICTIONS. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION SUPPORTING
ISOLATED -SHRA/TS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER SUGGESTED ON WATER VAPOUR
OVER MT DROPS SOUTHEAST. FEATURE WILL SUPPORT MOVEMENT OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN SD TODAY. AROUND
2KJ/KG MLCAPE POOLS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH 15-20M/S 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT ISN/T CLEAR WHERE UPPER SUPPORT/NON-
SUPPORT WILL COME FROM...PERHAPS MT SHORTWAVE...OR PERHAPS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEHIND CENTRAL DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
SUBSIDENCE. IF CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR. ANY
SUPERCELL WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR
ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY AND NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AS TROUGH
MOVES EAST. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF CWA
TOWARD MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG IT. LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-
E ADVECTION EAST OF CWA. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS DOWN. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TAIL DROPS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/ND/SD. RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY FROM 2-
4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS AND OF COLD FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT JUST ALONG/BEHIND COLD
FRONT. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A BLOB OF SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING HOURS AND SCOOT EAST. HIGH POPS WARRANTED
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
CLOUDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE NRN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE CWA BY MON MRNG...WITH DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
MVFR AT TIMES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL SD. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER STORMS.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MCKEMY
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13



000
FXUS63 KUNR 041707
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1107 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT COULD
DRIFT INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
BIGHORNS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF WYOMING. SOME OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON FIRING STORMS IN THE BLACK
HILLS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ERODE NEARLY ALL OF
THE CIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON...WILL STILL KEEP
ISOLATED CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THE BLACK HILLS THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE OFF ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AFTER 21Z TODAY. GIVEN CAPE AND
SHEAR PARAMETERS...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MB WITH COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT...LOW ALONG FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL
MT...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL WY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE PER
KUDX VWP AND MODEL DEPICTIONS. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION SUPPORTING
ISOLATED -SHRA/TS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER SUGGESTED ON WATER VAPOUR
OVER MT DROPS SOUTHEAST. FEATURE WILL SUPPORT MOVEMENT OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN SD TODAY. AROUND
2KJ/KG MLCAPE POOLS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH 15-20M/S 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT ISN/T CLEAR WHERE UPPER SUPPORT/NON-
SUPPORT WILL COME FROM...PERHAPS MT SHORTWAVE...OR PERHAPS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEHIND CENTRAL DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
SUBSIDENCE. IF CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR. ANY
SUPERCELL WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR
ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY AND NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AS TROUGH
MOVES EAST. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF CWA
TOWARD MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG IT. LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-
E ADVECTION EAST OF CWA. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS DOWN. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TAIL DROPS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/ND/SD. RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY FROM 2-
4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS AND OF COLD FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT JUST ALONG/BEHIND COLD
FRONT. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A BLOB OF SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING HOURS AND SCOOT EAST. HIGH POPS WARRANTED
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
CLOUDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE NRN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE CWA BY MON MRNG...WITH DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
MVFR AT TIMES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL SD. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER STORMS.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MCKEMY
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13




000
FXUS63 KUNR 041206
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
606 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MB WITH COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT...LOW ALONG FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL
MT...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL WY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE PER
KUDX VWP AND MODEL DEPICTIONS. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION SUPPORTING
ISOLATED -SHRA/TS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER SUGGESTED ON WATER VAPOUR
OVER MT DROPS SOUTHEAST. FEATURE WILL SUPPORT MOVEMENT OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN SD TODAY. AROUND
2KJ/KG MLCAPE POOLS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH 15-20M/S 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT ISN/T CLEAR WHERE UPPER SUPPORT/NON-
SUPPORT WILL COME FROM...PERHAPS MT SHORTWAVE...OR PERHAPS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEHIND CENTRAL DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
SUBSIDENCE. IF CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR. ANY
SUPERCELL WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR
ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY AND NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AS TROUGH
MOVES EAST. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF CWA
TOWARD MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG IT. LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-
E ADVECTION EAST OF CWA. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS DOWN. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TAIL DROPS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/ND/SD. RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY FROM 2-
4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS AND OF COLD FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT JUST ALONG/BEHIND COLD
FRONT. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A BLOB OF SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING HOURS AND SCOOT EAST. HIGH POPS WARRANTED
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
CLOUDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE NRN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE CWA BY MON MRNG...WITH DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
MVFR AT TIMES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL SD. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13




000
FXUS63 KUNR 041206
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
606 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MB WITH COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT...LOW ALONG FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL
MT...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL WY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE PER
KUDX VWP AND MODEL DEPICTIONS. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION SUPPORTING
ISOLATED -SHRA/TS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER SUGGESTED ON WATER VAPOUR
OVER MT DROPS SOUTHEAST. FEATURE WILL SUPPORT MOVEMENT OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN SD TODAY. AROUND
2KJ/KG MLCAPE POOLS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH 15-20M/S 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT ISN/T CLEAR WHERE UPPER SUPPORT/NON-
SUPPORT WILL COME FROM...PERHAPS MT SHORTWAVE...OR PERHAPS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEHIND CENTRAL DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
SUBSIDENCE. IF CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR. ANY
SUPERCELL WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR
ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY AND NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AS TROUGH
MOVES EAST. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF CWA
TOWARD MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG IT. LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-
E ADVECTION EAST OF CWA. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS DOWN. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TAIL DROPS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/ND/SD. RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY FROM 2-
4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS AND OF COLD FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT JUST ALONG/BEHIND COLD
FRONT. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A BLOB OF SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING HOURS AND SCOOT EAST. HIGH POPS WARRANTED
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
CLOUDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE NRN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE CWA BY MON MRNG...WITH DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
MVFR AT TIMES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL SD. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13




000
FXUS63 KUNR 041206
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
606 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MB WITH COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT...LOW ALONG FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL
MT...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL WY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE PER
KUDX VWP AND MODEL DEPICTIONS. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION SUPPORTING
ISOLATED -SHRA/TS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER SUGGESTED ON WATER VAPOUR
OVER MT DROPS SOUTHEAST. FEATURE WILL SUPPORT MOVEMENT OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN SD TODAY. AROUND
2KJ/KG MLCAPE POOLS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH 15-20M/S 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT ISN/T CLEAR WHERE UPPER SUPPORT/NON-
SUPPORT WILL COME FROM...PERHAPS MT SHORTWAVE...OR PERHAPS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEHIND CENTRAL DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
SUBSIDENCE. IF CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR. ANY
SUPERCELL WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR
ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY AND NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AS TROUGH
MOVES EAST. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF CWA
TOWARD MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG IT. LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-
E ADVECTION EAST OF CWA. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS DOWN. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TAIL DROPS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/ND/SD. RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY FROM 2-
4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS AND OF COLD FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT JUST ALONG/BEHIND COLD
FRONT. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A BLOB OF SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING HOURS AND SCOOT EAST. HIGH POPS WARRANTED
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
CLOUDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE NRN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE CWA BY MON MRNG...WITH DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
MVFR AT TIMES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL SD. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13




000
FXUS63 KUNR 041206
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
606 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MB WITH COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT...LOW ALONG FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL
MT...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL WY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE PER
KUDX VWP AND MODEL DEPICTIONS. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION SUPPORTING
ISOLATED -SHRA/TS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER SUGGESTED ON WATER VAPOUR
OVER MT DROPS SOUTHEAST. FEATURE WILL SUPPORT MOVEMENT OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN SD TODAY. AROUND
2KJ/KG MLCAPE POOLS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH 15-20M/S 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT ISN/T CLEAR WHERE UPPER SUPPORT/NON-
SUPPORT WILL COME FROM...PERHAPS MT SHORTWAVE...OR PERHAPS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEHIND CENTRAL DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
SUBSIDENCE. IF CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR. ANY
SUPERCELL WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR
ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY AND NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AS TROUGH
MOVES EAST. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF CWA
TOWARD MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG IT. LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-
E ADVECTION EAST OF CWA. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS DOWN. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TAIL DROPS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/ND/SD. RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY FROM 2-
4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS AND OF COLD FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT JUST ALONG/BEHIND COLD
FRONT. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A BLOB OF SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING HOURS AND SCOOT EAST. HIGH POPS WARRANTED
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
CLOUDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE NRN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE CWA BY MON MRNG...WITH DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
MVFR AT TIMES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL SD. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13




000
FXUS63 KUNR 041206
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
606 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MB WITH COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT...LOW ALONG FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL
MT...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL WY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE PER
KUDX VWP AND MODEL DEPICTIONS. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION SUPPORTING
ISOLATED -SHRA/TS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER SUGGESTED ON WATER VAPOUR
OVER MT DROPS SOUTHEAST. FEATURE WILL SUPPORT MOVEMENT OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN SD TODAY. AROUND
2KJ/KG MLCAPE POOLS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH 15-20M/S 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT ISN/T CLEAR WHERE UPPER SUPPORT/NON-
SUPPORT WILL COME FROM...PERHAPS MT SHORTWAVE...OR PERHAPS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEHIND CENTRAL DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
SUBSIDENCE. IF CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR. ANY
SUPERCELL WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR
ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY AND NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AS TROUGH
MOVES EAST. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF CWA
TOWARD MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG IT. LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-
E ADVECTION EAST OF CWA. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS DOWN. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TAIL DROPS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/ND/SD. RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY FROM 2-
4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS AND OF COLD FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT JUST ALONG/BEHIND COLD
FRONT. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A BLOB OF SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING HOURS AND SCOOT EAST. HIGH POPS WARRANTED
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
CLOUDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE NRN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE CWA BY MON MRNG...WITH DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
MVFR AT TIMES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL SD. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13



000
FXUS63 KUNR 041206
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
606 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MB WITH COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT...LOW ALONG FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL
MT...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL WY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE PER
KUDX VWP AND MODEL DEPICTIONS. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION SUPPORTING
ISOLATED -SHRA/TS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER SUGGESTED ON WATER VAPOUR
OVER MT DROPS SOUTHEAST. FEATURE WILL SUPPORT MOVEMENT OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN SD TODAY. AROUND
2KJ/KG MLCAPE POOLS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH 15-20M/S 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT ISN/T CLEAR WHERE UPPER SUPPORT/NON-
SUPPORT WILL COME FROM...PERHAPS MT SHORTWAVE...OR PERHAPS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEHIND CENTRAL DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
SUBSIDENCE. IF CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR. ANY
SUPERCELL WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR
ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY AND NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AS TROUGH
MOVES EAST. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF CWA
TOWARD MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG IT. LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-
E ADVECTION EAST OF CWA. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS DOWN. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TAIL DROPS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/ND/SD. RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY FROM 2-
4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS AND OF COLD FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT JUST ALONG/BEHIND COLD
FRONT. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A BLOB OF SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING HOURS AND SCOOT EAST. HIGH POPS WARRANTED
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
CLOUDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE NRN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE CWA BY MON MRNG...WITH DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
MVFR AT TIMES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL SD. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13



000
FXUS63 KUNR 041206
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
606 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MB WITH COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT...LOW ALONG FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL
MT...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL WY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE PER
KUDX VWP AND MODEL DEPICTIONS. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION SUPPORTING
ISOLATED -SHRA/TS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER SUGGESTED ON WATER VAPOUR
OVER MT DROPS SOUTHEAST. FEATURE WILL SUPPORT MOVEMENT OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN SD TODAY. AROUND
2KJ/KG MLCAPE POOLS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH 15-20M/S 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT ISN/T CLEAR WHERE UPPER SUPPORT/NON-
SUPPORT WILL COME FROM...PERHAPS MT SHORTWAVE...OR PERHAPS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEHIND CENTRAL DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
SUBSIDENCE. IF CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR. ANY
SUPERCELL WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR
ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY AND NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AS TROUGH
MOVES EAST. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF CWA
TOWARD MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG IT. LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-
E ADVECTION EAST OF CWA. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS DOWN. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TAIL DROPS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/ND/SD. RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY FROM 2-
4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS AND OF COLD FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT JUST ALONG/BEHIND COLD
FRONT. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A BLOB OF SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING HOURS AND SCOOT EAST. HIGH POPS WARRANTED
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
CLOUDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE NRN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE CWA BY MON MRNG...WITH DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
MVFR AT TIMES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL SD. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13



000
FXUS63 KUNR 041206
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
606 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MB WITH COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT...LOW ALONG FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL
MT...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL WY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE PER
KUDX VWP AND MODEL DEPICTIONS. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION SUPPORTING
ISOLATED -SHRA/TS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER SUGGESTED ON WATER VAPOUR
OVER MT DROPS SOUTHEAST. FEATURE WILL SUPPORT MOVEMENT OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN SD TODAY. AROUND
2KJ/KG MLCAPE POOLS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH 15-20M/S 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT ISN/T CLEAR WHERE UPPER SUPPORT/NON-
SUPPORT WILL COME FROM...PERHAPS MT SHORTWAVE...OR PERHAPS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEHIND CENTRAL DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
SUBSIDENCE. IF CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR. ANY
SUPERCELL WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR
ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY AND NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AS TROUGH
MOVES EAST. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF CWA
TOWARD MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG IT. LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-
E ADVECTION EAST OF CWA. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS DOWN. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TAIL DROPS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/ND/SD. RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY FROM 2-
4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS AND OF COLD FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT JUST ALONG/BEHIND COLD
FRONT. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A BLOB OF SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING HOURS AND SCOOT EAST. HIGH POPS WARRANTED
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
CLOUDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE NRN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE CWA BY MON MRNG...WITH DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
MVFR AT TIMES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL SD. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13



000
FXUS65 KCYS 041002
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
402 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FORCING DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT
IS THE MAIN FACTOR IN ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WHICH ARE OCCURRING
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER THROUGH AROUND
SUNRISE BEFORE DYING OFF COMPLETELY.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TO SOME OF THE HIGHEST READINGS OF THE YEAR...MAKING FOR A VERY
WARM 4TH OF JULY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 80S TO MID
90S OVER MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.

AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE NO STRONG FORCING MECHANISMS
IN PLACE TODAY AND THAT BEING THE CASE IT IS TOUGH TO PINPOINT
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOR CERTAIN DEVELOP. THEREFORE HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE MAINLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE INDICATING UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG MU CAPE
INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THERE SHOULD LOW
LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE FROM SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH A 50-60
KT UPPER LEVEL JET WHICH COULD AID IN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT
AND STRENGTH OF ANY STORMS THAT MIGHT DEVELOP.

COLD FRONT STILL ON SCHEDULE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT IS STILL SOMEWHAT OF A QUESTION WHICH COULD HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME
THINKING THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA AROUND NOON AND
MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THIS MEANS SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUD COVER IN THE WEST AND NORTH
SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

COOLER MONDAY WITH LESSER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY REMAIN STABLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THERE IS AT LEAST A
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A CONTINUATION OF THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL OF CONDITIONS DRYING A BIT BY LATE THIS WEEK...BUT GIVEN
RECENT MODEL TRENDS OF UNDER ESTIMATING BL MOISTURE...NOT VERY
CONFIDENT WITH THIS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER BEHIND A RELATIVELY
STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. LOW TEMPERATURES MAY
DROP INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. FOR TUESDAY MODELS SHOW THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY...ALTHOUGH LLVL WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REBOUND TUESDAY...BUT
WITH PW/S OVER 1 INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGH PLAINS...ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAINS...SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS
WELL. WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD AND STALLS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THERE IS A DECENT
CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BOTH DAYS DUE TO A COMBINATION
OF COOL AIR ALOFT PUSHING INTO THE AREA...AMPLE MOISTURE...AND
FAVORABLE 0-6KM SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. INCREASED
POP BETWEEN 40 TO 60 PERCENT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD
CHANCE OF MODERATE TO HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AROUND
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS. GFS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
CENTERED AROUND TEXAS WITH THE CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW SLIDING
EASTWARD BY FRIDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING TO MONSOON MOISTURE
INCREASING AND PUSHING NORTH BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. EXPECT A
FEW DRIER DAYS FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTER NEBRASKA...BUT
THIS MAY BE SHORT-LIVED AS MONSOON MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD INTO
COLORADO AND WYOMING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED
IN COVERAGE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. BRIEF MVFR VIS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WITH ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY ALONG WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRAKSA
PANHANDLE. STRONG ERRATIC WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBILITY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BRING WETTING RAINS TO MOST OF THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY
WITH THE MAIN CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...SML



000
FXUS65 KCYS 041002
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
402 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FORCING DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT
IS THE MAIN FACTOR IN ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WHICH ARE OCCURRING
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER THROUGH AROUND
SUNRISE BEFORE DYING OFF COMPLETELY.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TO SOME OF THE HIGHEST READINGS OF THE YEAR...MAKING FOR A VERY
WARM 4TH OF JULY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 80S TO MID
90S OVER MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.

AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE NO STRONG FORCING MECHANISMS
IN PLACE TODAY AND THAT BEING THE CASE IT IS TOUGH TO PINPOINT
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOR CERTAIN DEVELOP. THEREFORE HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE MAINLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE INDICATING UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG MU CAPE
INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THERE SHOULD LOW
LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE FROM SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH A 50-60
KT UPPER LEVEL JET WHICH COULD AID IN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT
AND STRENGTH OF ANY STORMS THAT MIGHT DEVELOP.

COLD FRONT STILL ON SCHEDULE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT IS STILL SOMEWHAT OF A QUESTION WHICH COULD HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME
THINKING THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA AROUND NOON AND
MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THIS MEANS SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUD COVER IN THE WEST AND NORTH
SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

COOLER MONDAY WITH LESSER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY REMAIN STABLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THERE IS AT LEAST A
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A CONTINUATION OF THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL OF CONDITIONS DRYING A BIT BY LATE THIS WEEK...BUT GIVEN
RECENT MODEL TRENDS OF UNDER ESTIMATING BL MOISTURE...NOT VERY
CONFIDENT WITH THIS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER BEHIND A RELATIVELY
STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. LOW TEMPERATURES MAY
DROP INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. FOR TUESDAY MODELS SHOW THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY...ALTHOUGH LLVL WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REBOUND TUESDAY...BUT
WITH PW/S OVER 1 INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGH PLAINS...ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAINS...SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS
WELL. WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD AND STALLS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THERE IS A DECENT
CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BOTH DAYS DUE TO A COMBINATION
OF COOL AIR ALOFT PUSHING INTO THE AREA...AMPLE MOISTURE...AND
FAVORABLE 0-6KM SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. INCREASED
POP BETWEEN 40 TO 60 PERCENT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD
CHANCE OF MODERATE TO HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AROUND
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS. GFS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
CENTERED AROUND TEXAS WITH THE CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW SLIDING
EASTWARD BY FRIDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING TO MONSOON MOISTURE
INCREASING AND PUSHING NORTH BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. EXPECT A
FEW DRIER DAYS FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTER NEBRASKA...BUT
THIS MAY BE SHORT-LIVED AS MONSOON MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD INTO
COLORADO AND WYOMING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED
IN COVERAGE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. BRIEF MVFR VIS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WITH ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY ALONG WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRAKSA
PANHANDLE. STRONG ERRATIC WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBILITY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BRING WETTING RAINS TO MOST OF THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY
WITH THE MAIN CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...SML




000
FXUS65 KCYS 041002
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
402 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FORCING DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT
IS THE MAIN FACTOR IN ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WHICH ARE OCCURRING
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER THROUGH AROUND
SUNRISE BEFORE DYING OFF COMPLETELY.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TO SOME OF THE HIGHEST READINGS OF THE YEAR...MAKING FOR A VERY
WARM 4TH OF JULY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 80S TO MID
90S OVER MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.

AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE NO STRONG FORCING MECHANISMS
IN PLACE TODAY AND THAT BEING THE CASE IT IS TOUGH TO PINPOINT
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOR CERTAIN DEVELOP. THEREFORE HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE MAINLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE INDICATING UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG MU CAPE
INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THERE SHOULD LOW
LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE FROM SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH A 50-60
KT UPPER LEVEL JET WHICH COULD AID IN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT
AND STRENGTH OF ANY STORMS THAT MIGHT DEVELOP.

COLD FRONT STILL ON SCHEDULE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT IS STILL SOMEWHAT OF A QUESTION WHICH COULD HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME
THINKING THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA AROUND NOON AND
MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THIS MEANS SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUD COVER IN THE WEST AND NORTH
SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

COOLER MONDAY WITH LESSER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY REMAIN STABLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THERE IS AT LEAST A
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A CONTINUATION OF THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL OF CONDITIONS DRYING A BIT BY LATE THIS WEEK...BUT GIVEN
RECENT MODEL TRENDS OF UNDER ESTIMATING BL MOISTURE...NOT VERY
CONFIDENT WITH THIS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER BEHIND A RELATIVELY
STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. LOW TEMPERATURES MAY
DROP INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. FOR TUESDAY MODELS SHOW THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY...ALTHOUGH LLVL WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REBOUND TUESDAY...BUT
WITH PW/S OVER 1 INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGH PLAINS...ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAINS...SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS
WELL. WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD AND STALLS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THERE IS A DECENT
CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BOTH DAYS DUE TO A COMBINATION
OF COOL AIR ALOFT PUSHING INTO THE AREA...AMPLE MOISTURE...AND
FAVORABLE 0-6KM SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. INCREASED
POP BETWEEN 40 TO 60 PERCENT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD
CHANCE OF MODERATE TO HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AROUND
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS. GFS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
CENTERED AROUND TEXAS WITH THE CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW SLIDING
EASTWARD BY FRIDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING TO MONSOON MOISTURE
INCREASING AND PUSHING NORTH BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. EXPECT A
FEW DRIER DAYS FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTER NEBRASKA...BUT
THIS MAY BE SHORT-LIVED AS MONSOON MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD INTO
COLORADO AND WYOMING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED
IN COVERAGE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. BRIEF MVFR VIS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WITH ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY ALONG WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRAKSA
PANHANDLE. STRONG ERRATIC WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBILITY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BRING WETTING RAINS TO MOST OF THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY
WITH THE MAIN CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...SML



000
FXUS65 KCYS 041002
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
402 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FORCING DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT
IS THE MAIN FACTOR IN ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WHICH ARE OCCURRING
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER THROUGH AROUND
SUNRISE BEFORE DYING OFF COMPLETELY.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TO SOME OF THE HIGHEST READINGS OF THE YEAR...MAKING FOR A VERY
WARM 4TH OF JULY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 80S TO MID
90S OVER MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.

AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE NO STRONG FORCING MECHANISMS
IN PLACE TODAY AND THAT BEING THE CASE IT IS TOUGH TO PINPOINT
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOR CERTAIN DEVELOP. THEREFORE HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE MAINLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE INDICATING UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG MU CAPE
INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THERE SHOULD LOW
LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE FROM SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH A 50-60
KT UPPER LEVEL JET WHICH COULD AID IN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT
AND STRENGTH OF ANY STORMS THAT MIGHT DEVELOP.

COLD FRONT STILL ON SCHEDULE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT IS STILL SOMEWHAT OF A QUESTION WHICH COULD HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME
THINKING THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA AROUND NOON AND
MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THIS MEANS SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUD COVER IN THE WEST AND NORTH
SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

COOLER MONDAY WITH LESSER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY REMAIN STABLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THERE IS AT LEAST A
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A CONTINUATION OF THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL OF CONDITIONS DRYING A BIT BY LATE THIS WEEK...BUT GIVEN
RECENT MODEL TRENDS OF UNDER ESTIMATING BL MOISTURE...NOT VERY
CONFIDENT WITH THIS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER BEHIND A RELATIVELY
STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. LOW TEMPERATURES MAY
DROP INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. FOR TUESDAY MODELS SHOW THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY...ALTHOUGH LLVL WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REBOUND TUESDAY...BUT
WITH PW/S OVER 1 INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGH PLAINS...ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAINS...SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS
WELL. WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD AND STALLS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THERE IS A DECENT
CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BOTH DAYS DUE TO A COMBINATION
OF COOL AIR ALOFT PUSHING INTO THE AREA...AMPLE MOISTURE...AND
FAVORABLE 0-6KM SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. INCREASED
POP BETWEEN 40 TO 60 PERCENT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD
CHANCE OF MODERATE TO HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AROUND
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS. GFS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
CENTERED AROUND TEXAS WITH THE CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW SLIDING
EASTWARD BY FRIDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING TO MONSOON MOISTURE
INCREASING AND PUSHING NORTH BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. EXPECT A
FEW DRIER DAYS FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTER NEBRASKA...BUT
THIS MAY BE SHORT-LIVED AS MONSOON MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD INTO
COLORADO AND WYOMING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED
IN COVERAGE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. BRIEF MVFR VIS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WITH ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY ALONG WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRAKSA
PANHANDLE. STRONG ERRATIC WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBILITY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BRING WETTING RAINS TO MOST OF THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY
WITH THE MAIN CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...SML




000
FXUS65 KRIW 040925
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
325 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

IN HONOR OF THE 239TH BIRTHDAY OF THE COUNTRY...ACTUALLY THE
DECLARATION WAS APPROVED ON THE SECOND...BUT ANYWAY...WE PRESENT
THE DISCUSSION OF THE FOURTH OF JULY WEATHER THIS MORNING IN THE
FORM OF THE PREAMBLE OF THE DECLARATION OF INDEPENDENCE.

WE HOLD THIS WEATHER TO BE SELF-EVIDENT...THAT WESTERN AND CENTRAL
WYOMING WILL BE ENDOWED...BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH CERTAIN
UNALIENABLE CONDITIONS...WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES...LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS...AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

THAT TO SECURE THESE CONDITIONS...A WESTERLY FLOW INSTITUTED BY LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST...DERIVING THEIR POWERS FROM THE JET STREAM FLOW...THAT
WHENEVER THE STRONG CAP IS PUNCTURED BY LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...IT
IS THE RIGHT OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO ALTER THE HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS...AND INSTITUTE ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...LAYING ITS FOUNDATION ON HIGH LEVEL HEAT SOURCE AND
DRIFTING EAST IN SUCH FORM...AS TO THEM SHALL SEEM MOST LIKELY TO
EFFECT COOK OUTS...PARTIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

PRUDENCE...INDEED...WILL DICTATE THAT GET TOGETHERS LONG PLANNED
SHOULD NOT BE CHANGED FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY MOST OF THE
TIME...AND ACCORDINGLY ALL EXPERIENCE HATH SHOWN...THAT AREAS NEAR
MOUNTAINS ARE MOST DISPOSED TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE STORMS ARE
SUFFERABLE...THEN TO RIGHT THEMSELVES BY NOTING THAT THEY WILL PASS
QUICKLY AS WE ARE ACCUSTOMED. BUT WHEN A LONG TRAIN OF HOT DAYS AND
POP UP STORMS...OCCURRING INVARIABLY AT THE SAME TIME...SHOWS A
DESIGN TYPICAL OF THE WYOMING SUMMERTIME...IT IS COMMON...AND WELL
KNOWN...TO THROW OFF SUCH FORECAST...AND TO PROVIDE THE NEED FOR
UPDATES.

NOW BACK TO YOUR REGULARLY SCHEDULED DISCUSSION. THE HEAT WILL
PEAK TODAY AS THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BE AT PEAK STRENGTH. ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS SHOULD END BY DAYBREAK WITH THE MORNING AND MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON BEING MAINLY DRY. AS FOR THE PESKY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...TWO AREAS LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE. ONE WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE A PUSH OF MOISTURE FROM COLORADO
MAY FIRE A FEW STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SWEETWATER
COUNTY. THE OTHER WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...FROM THE ABSAROKAS TO
THE BIG HORNS...IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THESE LOCATIONS AND THE
BIG HORN BASIN. WITH THE CAP STRONGER TODAY...WE EXPECT FEWER
STORMS THAN YESTERDAY...BUT ANY COULD TURN STRONG LIKE THE
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. BUT...WE CAN NOT RULE ONE OUT FOR ANYONE...JUST
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO IT IN EVERYWHERE. WILL BE ANOTHER HOT ONE
AS WELL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

HOWEVER...CHANGES ARE COMING AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE
COURTESY OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH AND SOME
MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW
FAST THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH HOWEVER. IN SOME LOCATIONS...THERE
IS A DIFFERENCE OF UP TO 12 DEGREES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. FOR
NOW...WE HAVE PLAYED THE MIDDLE. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10
TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALSO PLAY INTO HOW
STRONG THE STORMS WILL BE. AT THIS TIME...LIFTED INDICES ARE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE...FALLING DOWN TO MINUS 4 IN SOME LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...CAPE IS RELATIVELY LIMITED. IN ADDITION...INCREASED CLOUD
COVER MY LIMIT INSTABILITY AND THE BEST JET DYNAMICS REMAIN OVER
MONTANA. THE BIG THREAT LOOKS TO BE HEAVY RAIN...AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RISE TO WELL OVER AN INCH ACROSS MANY AREAS. CONTINUITY
HAD HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST AND WE KEPT THAT WORDING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS WELL AS THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTH. THE MODELS HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THIS HOWEVER WITH BOTH
AMOUNT AND PLACEMENT...WITH THE NAM QUITE WET AND THE GFS DRIER.
AGAIN...FOR NOW WE SPLIT THE MIDDLE.

UNSETTLED WEATHER ALSO LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS WELL.
PREVIOUS RUNS THAT SHOWED HEAVIER SHOWERS ON MONDAY MORNING HAVE
BACKED OFF SO WE BACKED OFF POPS AND QPF. MORE MOISTURE SURGING IN
FROM THE SOUTH WILL FIRE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS TIME...THE BEST COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND WEST. AGAIN...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN COVERAGE WITH
THE NAM DRIER THAN THE GFS. CONTINUITY LOOKED REASONABLE SO WE MADE
FEW CHANGES. WITH THE MOISTURE PUSHING EASTWARD...SO WILL THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE WEATHER LOOKS UNSETTLED OVER THE AREA.
IT LOOKS LIKE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
RIGHT THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THE TIMING OF THE LONG RANGE
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE CLOSE WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING
WEST TO EAST ACROSS WY TUE NIGHT. THEN A NEW SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST
OVER MONTANA WEDNESDAY AND INTO NORTHERN WY WED NIGHT. MODEL TIMING
RIGHT NOW WITH THIS SYSTEM IS CLOSE. SOME COOLING AS A FRONT GETS
KICKED SOUTHWARD ON WED. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SENDING TEMPS BACK TO VERY WARM TO HOT WITH LESS COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THERE MAY BE MORE STORM COVERAGE
OVER THE WEST FRIDAY AS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY OCCUR. THIS
DEPENDS ON HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE MOVEMENT OF A WEATHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TRACK
YET TO BE DETERMINED AND WILL WATCH IT OVER THE COMING DAYS. NEXT
SATURDAY WILL BE HOT AND MOSTLY DRY EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AS THE WEATHER
SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH IDAHO INTO MONTANA.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE ACROSS SOUTHERN
WYOMING WHERE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BLOSSOM IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY VCNTY AND SOUTH OF A KRKS-KCPR LINE.
 A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST WILL KEEP
ISOLD -TSRA CONFINED MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE MTNS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AROUND 06Z
SUNDAY...SPREADING ISOLD SHOWERS SOUTH INTO VCNTY KCOD-KWRL-KBYG
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS REMAINING PREVAILING VFR BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ONE MORE HOT AND MAINLY DRY DAY
FOR MOST AREAS. EXPECT GOOD TO EXCELLENT SMOKE DISPERSAL ACROSS THE
AREA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS IN SOME OF
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. A GUSTY BREEZE MAY DEVELOP IN THE SOUTH AND
WEST. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EAST OF THE DIVIDE BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN IN
PREVIOUS DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY AND BRING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER HUMIDITY AND A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS



000
FXUS65 KRIW 040925
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
325 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

IN HONOR OF THE 239TH BIRTHDAY OF THE COUNTRY...ACTUALLY THE
DECLARATION WAS APPROVED ON THE SECOND...BUT ANYWAY...WE PRESENT
THE DISCUSSION OF THE FOURTH OF JULY WEATHER THIS MORNING IN THE
FORM OF THE PREAMBLE OF THE DECLARATION OF INDEPENDENCE.

WE HOLD THIS WEATHER TO BE SELF-EVIDENT...THAT WESTERN AND CENTRAL
WYOMING WILL BE ENDOWED...BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH CERTAIN
UNALIENABLE CONDITIONS...WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES...LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS...AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

THAT TO SECURE THESE CONDITIONS...A WESTERLY FLOW INSTITUTED BY LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST...DERIVING THEIR POWERS FROM THE JET STREAM FLOW...THAT
WHENEVER THE STRONG CAP IS PUNCTURED BY LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...IT
IS THE RIGHT OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO ALTER THE HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS...AND INSTITUTE ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...LAYING ITS FOUNDATION ON HIGH LEVEL HEAT SOURCE AND
DRIFTING EAST IN SUCH FORM...AS TO THEM SHALL SEEM MOST LIKELY TO
EFFECT COOK OUTS...PARTIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

PRUDENCE...INDEED...WILL DICTATE THAT GET TOGETHERS LONG PLANNED
SHOULD NOT BE CHANGED FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY MOST OF THE
TIME...AND ACCORDINGLY ALL EXPERIENCE HATH SHOWN...THAT AREAS NEAR
MOUNTAINS ARE MOST DISPOSED TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE STORMS ARE
SUFFERABLE...THEN TO RIGHT THEMSELVES BY NOTING THAT THEY WILL PASS
QUICKLY AS WE ARE ACCUSTOMED. BUT WHEN A LONG TRAIN OF HOT DAYS AND
POP UP STORMS...OCCURRING INVARIABLY AT THE SAME TIME...SHOWS A
DESIGN TYPICAL OF THE WYOMING SUMMERTIME...IT IS COMMON...AND WELL
KNOWN...TO THROW OFF SUCH FORECAST...AND TO PROVIDE THE NEED FOR
UPDATES.

NOW BACK TO YOUR REGULARLY SCHEDULED DISCUSSION. THE HEAT WILL
PEAK TODAY AS THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BE AT PEAK STRENGTH. ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS SHOULD END BY DAYBREAK WITH THE MORNING AND MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON BEING MAINLY DRY. AS FOR THE PESKY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...TWO AREAS LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE. ONE WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE A PUSH OF MOISTURE FROM COLORADO
MAY FIRE A FEW STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SWEETWATER
COUNTY. THE OTHER WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...FROM THE ABSAROKAS TO
THE BIG HORNS...IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THESE LOCATIONS AND THE
BIG HORN BASIN. WITH THE CAP STRONGER TODAY...WE EXPECT FEWER
STORMS THAN YESTERDAY...BUT ANY COULD TURN STRONG LIKE THE
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. BUT...WE CAN NOT RULE ONE OUT FOR ANYONE...JUST
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO IT IN EVERYWHERE. WILL BE ANOTHER HOT ONE
AS WELL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

HOWEVER...CHANGES ARE COMING AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE
COURTESY OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH AND SOME
MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW
FAST THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH HOWEVER. IN SOME LOCATIONS...THERE
IS A DIFFERENCE OF UP TO 12 DEGREES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. FOR
NOW...WE HAVE PLAYED THE MIDDLE. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10
TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALSO PLAY INTO HOW
STRONG THE STORMS WILL BE. AT THIS TIME...LIFTED INDICES ARE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE...FALLING DOWN TO MINUS 4 IN SOME LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...CAPE IS RELATIVELY LIMITED. IN ADDITION...INCREASED CLOUD
COVER MY LIMIT INSTABILITY AND THE BEST JET DYNAMICS REMAIN OVER
MONTANA. THE BIG THREAT LOOKS TO BE HEAVY RAIN...AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RISE TO WELL OVER AN INCH ACROSS MANY AREAS. CONTINUITY
HAD HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST AND WE KEPT THAT WORDING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS WELL AS THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTH. THE MODELS HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THIS HOWEVER WITH BOTH
AMOUNT AND PLACEMENT...WITH THE NAM QUITE WET AND THE GFS DRIER.
AGAIN...FOR NOW WE SPLIT THE MIDDLE.

UNSETTLED WEATHER ALSO LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS WELL.
PREVIOUS RUNS THAT SHOWED HEAVIER SHOWERS ON MONDAY MORNING HAVE
BACKED OFF SO WE BACKED OFF POPS AND QPF. MORE MOISTURE SURGING IN
FROM THE SOUTH WILL FIRE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS TIME...THE BEST COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND WEST. AGAIN...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN COVERAGE WITH
THE NAM DRIER THAN THE GFS. CONTINUITY LOOKED REASONABLE SO WE MADE
FEW CHANGES. WITH THE MOISTURE PUSHING EASTWARD...SO WILL THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE WEATHER LOOKS UNSETTLED OVER THE AREA.
IT LOOKS LIKE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
RIGHT THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THE TIMING OF THE LONG RANGE
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE CLOSE WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING
WEST TO EAST ACROSS WY TUE NIGHT. THEN A NEW SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST
OVER MONTANA WEDNESDAY AND INTO NORTHERN WY WED NIGHT. MODEL TIMING
RIGHT NOW WITH THIS SYSTEM IS CLOSE. SOME COOLING AS A FRONT GETS
KICKED SOUTHWARD ON WED. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SENDING TEMPS BACK TO VERY WARM TO HOT WITH LESS COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THERE MAY BE MORE STORM COVERAGE
OVER THE WEST FRIDAY AS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY OCCUR. THIS
DEPENDS ON HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE MOVEMENT OF A WEATHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TRACK
YET TO BE DETERMINED AND WILL WATCH IT OVER THE COMING DAYS. NEXT
SATURDAY WILL BE HOT AND MOSTLY DRY EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AS THE WEATHER
SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH IDAHO INTO MONTANA.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE ACROSS SOUTHERN
WYOMING WHERE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BLOSSOM IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY VCNTY AND SOUTH OF A KRKS-KCPR LINE.
 A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST WILL KEEP
ISOLD -TSRA CONFINED MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE MTNS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AROUND 06Z
SUNDAY...SPREADING ISOLD SHOWERS SOUTH INTO VCNTY KCOD-KWRL-KBYG
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS REMAINING PREVAILING VFR BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ONE MORE HOT AND MAINLY DRY DAY
FOR MOST AREAS. EXPECT GOOD TO EXCELLENT SMOKE DISPERSAL ACROSS THE
AREA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS IN SOME OF
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. A GUSTY BREEZE MAY DEVELOP IN THE SOUTH AND
WEST. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EAST OF THE DIVIDE BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN IN
PREVIOUS DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY AND BRING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER HUMIDITY AND A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS



000
FXUS65 KRIW 040925
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
325 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

IN HONOR OF THE 239TH BIRTHDAY OF THE COUNTRY...ACTUALLY THE
DECLARATION WAS APPROVED ON THE SECOND...BUT ANYWAY...WE PRESENT
THE DISCUSSION OF THE FOURTH OF JULY WEATHER THIS MORNING IN THE
FORM OF THE PREAMBLE OF THE DECLARATION OF INDEPENDENCE.

WE HOLD THIS WEATHER TO BE SELF-EVIDENT...THAT WESTERN AND CENTRAL
WYOMING WILL BE ENDOWED...BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH CERTAIN
UNALIENABLE CONDITIONS...WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES...LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS...AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

THAT TO SECURE THESE CONDITIONS...A WESTERLY FLOW INSTITUTED BY LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST...DERIVING THEIR POWERS FROM THE JET STREAM FLOW...THAT
WHENEVER THE STRONG CAP IS PUNCTURED BY LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...IT
IS THE RIGHT OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO ALTER THE HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS...AND INSTITUTE ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...LAYING ITS FOUNDATION ON HIGH LEVEL HEAT SOURCE AND
DRIFTING EAST IN SUCH FORM...AS TO THEM SHALL SEEM MOST LIKELY TO
EFFECT COOK OUTS...PARTIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

PRUDENCE...INDEED...WILL DICTATE THAT GET TOGETHERS LONG PLANNED
SHOULD NOT BE CHANGED FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY MOST OF THE
TIME...AND ACCORDINGLY ALL EXPERIENCE HATH SHOWN...THAT AREAS NEAR
MOUNTAINS ARE MOST DISPOSED TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE STORMS ARE
SUFFERABLE...THEN TO RIGHT THEMSELVES BY NOTING THAT THEY WILL PASS
QUICKLY AS WE ARE ACCUSTOMED. BUT WHEN A LONG TRAIN OF HOT DAYS AND
POP UP STORMS...OCCURRING INVARIABLY AT THE SAME TIME...SHOWS A
DESIGN TYPICAL OF THE WYOMING SUMMERTIME...IT IS COMMON...AND WELL
KNOWN...TO THROW OFF SUCH FORECAST...AND TO PROVIDE THE NEED FOR
UPDATES.

NOW BACK TO YOUR REGULARLY SCHEDULED DISCUSSION. THE HEAT WILL
PEAK TODAY AS THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BE AT PEAK STRENGTH. ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS SHOULD END BY DAYBREAK WITH THE MORNING AND MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON BEING MAINLY DRY. AS FOR THE PESKY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...TWO AREAS LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE. ONE WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE A PUSH OF MOISTURE FROM COLORADO
MAY FIRE A FEW STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SWEETWATER
COUNTY. THE OTHER WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...FROM THE ABSAROKAS TO
THE BIG HORNS...IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THESE LOCATIONS AND THE
BIG HORN BASIN. WITH THE CAP STRONGER TODAY...WE EXPECT FEWER
STORMS THAN YESTERDAY...BUT ANY COULD TURN STRONG LIKE THE
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. BUT...WE CAN NOT RULE ONE OUT FOR ANYONE...JUST
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO IT IN EVERYWHERE. WILL BE ANOTHER HOT ONE
AS WELL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

HOWEVER...CHANGES ARE COMING AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE
COURTESY OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH AND SOME
MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW
FAST THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH HOWEVER. IN SOME LOCATIONS...THERE
IS A DIFFERENCE OF UP TO 12 DEGREES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. FOR
NOW...WE HAVE PLAYED THE MIDDLE. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10
TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALSO PLAY INTO HOW
STRONG THE STORMS WILL BE. AT THIS TIME...LIFTED INDICES ARE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE...FALLING DOWN TO MINUS 4 IN SOME LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...CAPE IS RELATIVELY LIMITED. IN ADDITION...INCREASED CLOUD
COVER MY LIMIT INSTABILITY AND THE BEST JET DYNAMICS REMAIN OVER
MONTANA. THE BIG THREAT LOOKS TO BE HEAVY RAIN...AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RISE TO WELL OVER AN INCH ACROSS MANY AREAS. CONTINUITY
HAD HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST AND WE KEPT THAT WORDING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS WELL AS THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTH. THE MODELS HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THIS HOWEVER WITH BOTH
AMOUNT AND PLACEMENT...WITH THE NAM QUITE WET AND THE GFS DRIER.
AGAIN...FOR NOW WE SPLIT THE MIDDLE.

UNSETTLED WEATHER ALSO LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS WELL.
PREVIOUS RUNS THAT SHOWED HEAVIER SHOWERS ON MONDAY MORNING HAVE
BACKED OFF SO WE BACKED OFF POPS AND QPF. MORE MOISTURE SURGING IN
FROM THE SOUTH WILL FIRE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS TIME...THE BEST COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND WEST. AGAIN...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN COVERAGE WITH
THE NAM DRIER THAN THE GFS. CONTINUITY LOOKED REASONABLE SO WE MADE
FEW CHANGES. WITH THE MOISTURE PUSHING EASTWARD...SO WILL THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE WEATHER LOOKS UNSETTLED OVER THE AREA.
IT LOOKS LIKE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
RIGHT THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THE TIMING OF THE LONG RANGE
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE CLOSE WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING
WEST TO EAST ACROSS WY TUE NIGHT. THEN A NEW SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST
OVER MONTANA WEDNESDAY AND INTO NORTHERN WY WED NIGHT. MODEL TIMING
RIGHT NOW WITH THIS SYSTEM IS CLOSE. SOME COOLING AS A FRONT GETS
KICKED SOUTHWARD ON WED. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SENDING TEMPS BACK TO VERY WARM TO HOT WITH LESS COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THERE MAY BE MORE STORM COVERAGE
OVER THE WEST FRIDAY AS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY OCCUR. THIS
DEPENDS ON HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE MOVEMENT OF A WEATHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TRACK
YET TO BE DETERMINED AND WILL WATCH IT OVER THE COMING DAYS. NEXT
SATURDAY WILL BE HOT AND MOSTLY DRY EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AS THE WEATHER
SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH IDAHO INTO MONTANA.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE ACROSS SOUTHERN
WYOMING WHERE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BLOSSOM IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY VCNTY AND SOUTH OF A KRKS-KCPR LINE.
 A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST WILL KEEP
ISOLD -TSRA CONFINED MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE MTNS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AROUND 06Z
SUNDAY...SPREADING ISOLD SHOWERS SOUTH INTO VCNTY KCOD-KWRL-KBYG
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS REMAINING PREVAILING VFR BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ONE MORE HOT AND MAINLY DRY DAY
FOR MOST AREAS. EXPECT GOOD TO EXCELLENT SMOKE DISPERSAL ACROSS THE
AREA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS IN SOME OF
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. A GUSTY BREEZE MAY DEVELOP IN THE SOUTH AND
WEST. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EAST OF THE DIVIDE BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN IN
PREVIOUS DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY AND BRING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER HUMIDITY AND A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS




000
FXUS65 KRIW 040925
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
325 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

IN HONOR OF THE 239TH BIRTHDAY OF THE COUNTRY...ACTUALLY THE
DECLARATION WAS APPROVED ON THE SECOND...BUT ANYWAY...WE PRESENT
THE DISCUSSION OF THE FOURTH OF JULY WEATHER THIS MORNING IN THE
FORM OF THE PREAMBLE OF THE DECLARATION OF INDEPENDENCE.

WE HOLD THIS WEATHER TO BE SELF-EVIDENT...THAT WESTERN AND CENTRAL
WYOMING WILL BE ENDOWED...BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH CERTAIN
UNALIENABLE CONDITIONS...WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES...LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS...AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

THAT TO SECURE THESE CONDITIONS...A WESTERLY FLOW INSTITUTED BY LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST...DERIVING THEIR POWERS FROM THE JET STREAM FLOW...THAT
WHENEVER THE STRONG CAP IS PUNCTURED BY LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...IT
IS THE RIGHT OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO ALTER THE HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS...AND INSTITUTE ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...LAYING ITS FOUNDATION ON HIGH LEVEL HEAT SOURCE AND
DRIFTING EAST IN SUCH FORM...AS TO THEM SHALL SEEM MOST LIKELY TO
EFFECT COOK OUTS...PARTIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

PRUDENCE...INDEED...WILL DICTATE THAT GET TOGETHERS LONG PLANNED
SHOULD NOT BE CHANGED FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY MOST OF THE
TIME...AND ACCORDINGLY ALL EXPERIENCE HATH SHOWN...THAT AREAS NEAR
MOUNTAINS ARE MOST DISPOSED TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE STORMS ARE
SUFFERABLE...THEN TO RIGHT THEMSELVES BY NOTING THAT THEY WILL PASS
QUICKLY AS WE ARE ACCUSTOMED. BUT WHEN A LONG TRAIN OF HOT DAYS AND
POP UP STORMS...OCCURRING INVARIABLY AT THE SAME TIME...SHOWS A
DESIGN TYPICAL OF THE WYOMING SUMMERTIME...IT IS COMMON...AND WELL
KNOWN...TO THROW OFF SUCH FORECAST...AND TO PROVIDE THE NEED FOR
UPDATES.

NOW BACK TO YOUR REGULARLY SCHEDULED DISCUSSION. THE HEAT WILL
PEAK TODAY AS THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BE AT PEAK STRENGTH. ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS SHOULD END BY DAYBREAK WITH THE MORNING AND MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON BEING MAINLY DRY. AS FOR THE PESKY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...TWO AREAS LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE. ONE WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE A PUSH OF MOISTURE FROM COLORADO
MAY FIRE A FEW STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SWEETWATER
COUNTY. THE OTHER WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...FROM THE ABSAROKAS TO
THE BIG HORNS...IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THESE LOCATIONS AND THE
BIG HORN BASIN. WITH THE CAP STRONGER TODAY...WE EXPECT FEWER
STORMS THAN YESTERDAY...BUT ANY COULD TURN STRONG LIKE THE
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. BUT...WE CAN NOT RULE ONE OUT FOR ANYONE...JUST
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO IT IN EVERYWHERE. WILL BE ANOTHER HOT ONE
AS WELL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

HOWEVER...CHANGES ARE COMING AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE
COURTESY OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH AND SOME
MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW
FAST THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH HOWEVER. IN SOME LOCATIONS...THERE
IS A DIFFERENCE OF UP TO 12 DEGREES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. FOR
NOW...WE HAVE PLAYED THE MIDDLE. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10
TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALSO PLAY INTO HOW
STRONG THE STORMS WILL BE. AT THIS TIME...LIFTED INDICES ARE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE...FALLING DOWN TO MINUS 4 IN SOME LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...CAPE IS RELATIVELY LIMITED. IN ADDITION...INCREASED CLOUD
COVER MY LIMIT INSTABILITY AND THE BEST JET DYNAMICS REMAIN OVER
MONTANA. THE BIG THREAT LOOKS TO BE HEAVY RAIN...AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RISE TO WELL OVER AN INCH ACROSS MANY AREAS. CONTINUITY
HAD HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST AND WE KEPT THAT WORDING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS WELL AS THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTH. THE MODELS HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THIS HOWEVER WITH BOTH
AMOUNT AND PLACEMENT...WITH THE NAM QUITE WET AND THE GFS DRIER.
AGAIN...FOR NOW WE SPLIT THE MIDDLE.

UNSETTLED WEATHER ALSO LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS WELL.
PREVIOUS RUNS THAT SHOWED HEAVIER SHOWERS ON MONDAY MORNING HAVE
BACKED OFF SO WE BACKED OFF POPS AND QPF. MORE MOISTURE SURGING IN
FROM THE SOUTH WILL FIRE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS TIME...THE BEST COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND WEST. AGAIN...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN COVERAGE WITH
THE NAM DRIER THAN THE GFS. CONTINUITY LOOKED REASONABLE SO WE MADE
FEW CHANGES. WITH THE MOISTURE PUSHING EASTWARD...SO WILL THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE WEATHER LOOKS UNSETTLED OVER THE AREA.
IT LOOKS LIKE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
RIGHT THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THE TIMING OF THE LONG RANGE
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE CLOSE WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING
WEST TO EAST ACROSS WY TUE NIGHT. THEN A NEW SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST
OVER MONTANA WEDNESDAY AND INTO NORTHERN WY WED NIGHT. MODEL TIMING
RIGHT NOW WITH THIS SYSTEM IS CLOSE. SOME COOLING AS A FRONT GETS
KICKED SOUTHWARD ON WED. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SENDING TEMPS BACK TO VERY WARM TO HOT WITH LESS COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THERE MAY BE MORE STORM COVERAGE
OVER THE WEST FRIDAY AS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY OCCUR. THIS
DEPENDS ON HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE MOVEMENT OF A WEATHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TRACK
YET TO BE DETERMINED AND WILL WATCH IT OVER THE COMING DAYS. NEXT
SATURDAY WILL BE HOT AND MOSTLY DRY EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AS THE WEATHER
SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH IDAHO INTO MONTANA.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE ACROSS SOUTHERN
WYOMING WHERE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BLOSSOM IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY VCNTY AND SOUTH OF A KRKS-KCPR LINE.
 A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST WILL KEEP
ISOLD -TSRA CONFINED MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE MTNS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AROUND 06Z
SUNDAY...SPREADING ISOLD SHOWERS SOUTH INTO VCNTY KCOD-KWRL-KBYG
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS REMAINING PREVAILING VFR BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ONE MORE HOT AND MAINLY DRY DAY
FOR MOST AREAS. EXPECT GOOD TO EXCELLENT SMOKE DISPERSAL ACROSS THE
AREA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS IN SOME OF
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. A GUSTY BREEZE MAY DEVELOP IN THE SOUTH AND
WEST. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EAST OF THE DIVIDE BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN IN
PREVIOUS DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY AND BRING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER HUMIDITY AND A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS




000
FXUS63 KUNR 040826
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
226 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MB WITH COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT...LOW ALONG FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL
MT...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL WY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE PER
KUDX VWP AND MODEL DEPICTIONS. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION SUPPORTING
ISOLATED -SHRA/TS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER SUGGESTED ON WATER VAPOUR
OVER MT DROPS SOUTHEAST. FEATURE WILL SUPPORT MOVEMENT OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN SD TODAY. AROUND
2KJ/KG MLCAPE POOLS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH 15-20M/S 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT ISN/T CLEAR WHERE UPPER SUPPORT/NON-
SUPPORT WILL COME FROM...PERHAPS MT SHORTWAVE...OR PERHAPS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEHIND CENTRAL DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
SUBSIDENCE. IF CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR. ANY
SUPERCELL WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR
ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY AND NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AS TROUGH
MOVES EAST. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF CWA
TOWARD MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG IT. LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-
E ADVECTION EAST OF CWA. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS DOWN. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TAIL DROPS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/ND/SD. RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY FROM 2-
4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS AND OF COLD FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT JUST ALONG/BEHIND COLD
FRONT. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A BLOB OF SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING HOURS AND SCOOT EAST. HIGH POPS WARRANTED
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
CLOUDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE NRN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE CWA BY MON MRNG...WITH DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
MVFR AT TIMES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL SD. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13




000
FXUS63 KUNR 040826
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
226 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MB WITH COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT...LOW ALONG FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL
MT...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL WY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE PER
KUDX VWP AND MODEL DEPICTIONS. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION SUPPORTING
ISOLATED -SHRA/TS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER SUGGESTED ON WATER VAPOUR
OVER MT DROPS SOUTHEAST. FEATURE WILL SUPPORT MOVEMENT OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN SD TODAY. AROUND
2KJ/KG MLCAPE POOLS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH 15-20M/S 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT ISN/T CLEAR WHERE UPPER SUPPORT/NON-
SUPPORT WILL COME FROM...PERHAPS MT SHORTWAVE...OR PERHAPS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEHIND CENTRAL DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
SUBSIDENCE. IF CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR. ANY
SUPERCELL WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR
ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY AND NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AS TROUGH
MOVES EAST. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF CWA
TOWARD MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG IT. LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-
E ADVECTION EAST OF CWA. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS DOWN. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TAIL DROPS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/ND/SD. RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY FROM 2-
4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS AND OF COLD FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT JUST ALONG/BEHIND COLD
FRONT. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A BLOB OF SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING HOURS AND SCOOT EAST. HIGH POPS WARRANTED
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
CLOUDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE NRN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE CWA BY MON MRNG...WITH DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
MVFR AT TIMES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL SD. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13



000
FXUS63 KUNR 040826
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
226 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MB WITH COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT...LOW ALONG FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL
MT...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL WY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE PER
KUDX VWP AND MODEL DEPICTIONS. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION SUPPORTING
ISOLATED -SHRA/TS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER SUGGESTED ON WATER VAPOUR
OVER MT DROPS SOUTHEAST. FEATURE WILL SUPPORT MOVEMENT OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN SD TODAY. AROUND
2KJ/KG MLCAPE POOLS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH 15-20M/S 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT ISN/T CLEAR WHERE UPPER SUPPORT/NON-
SUPPORT WILL COME FROM...PERHAPS MT SHORTWAVE...OR PERHAPS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEHIND CENTRAL DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
SUBSIDENCE. IF CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR. ANY
SUPERCELL WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR
ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY AND NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AS TROUGH
MOVES EAST. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF CWA
TOWARD MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG IT. LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-
E ADVECTION EAST OF CWA. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS DOWN. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TAIL DROPS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/ND/SD. RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY FROM 2-
4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS AND OF COLD FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT JUST ALONG/BEHIND COLD
FRONT. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A BLOB OF SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING HOURS AND SCOOT EAST. HIGH POPS WARRANTED
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
CLOUDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE NRN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE CWA BY MON MRNG...WITH DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
MVFR AT TIMES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL SD. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13




000
FXUS65 KRIW 040546
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1145 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY (ISSUED AT 117 PM MDT)

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN RESULTING IN NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW...WITH COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR OVER THE NORTH AND
EAST...AND DRIER AND WARMER AIR OVER THE SOUTHWEST. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND OVER THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH A FEW BECOMING STRONG ENOUGH TO MOVE OFF THE
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE MORE STABLE AIR IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE WIND RIVER AND BIGHORN BASINS AND THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES. CLEARING WILL BE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
WARMER AND DRIER ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND...WITH LESS
COVERAGE...OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. FEWER STORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVERALL AND ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

BEGINNING OF FCST...QUITE A PROTECTIVE CAP IN PLACE WITH FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ABLE TO INITIATE EXCEPT OVR THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN THE
AREA AND PERHAPS OVR A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SRN FA AND ITS ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING WARM FRONT INTO SRN NATRONA
COUNTY. RELATIVELY LOW CAPE AND SHEAR... 300 - 700 J/KG AND 20 KTS
OR LESS RESPECTIVELY...WILL YIELD ONLY ISOLATED MODEST THUNDER IN
THESE AREAS WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MOST LIKELY CULPRIT.

SUNDAY...A COUPLE OF UPR LVL WAVES EMBEDDED IN BOTH THE THE SRN FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH AND THE NRN FLOW WILL COME TOGETHER AND PROVIDE EXTRA
MOISTURE AND LIFT ABOVE A DIVING CANADIAN COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
S ACROSS THE FA DURING THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE SFC LOW THAT WAS
DEVELOPING OVR SRN WY WILL BE INSPIRED TO JUMP EWD...SPINNING UP
INTO A LEE CYCLONE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF SERN WY AND NERN CO.
MUCH COOLER WITH CHCS FOR PRECIP...IN THE FORM OF STRONG SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...INCREASING OVR THE ENTIRE FA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. DYNAMICS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONG SKINNY CAPE WITH
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...PWS AT OR IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH FOR MOST
ALL LOCATIONS...AND DEEP SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS PLUS/MINUS. MOST STORMS
E OF THE DIVIDE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO ROTATE AND MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES FOR A WHILE. ALTHOUGH STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD RUN 20 TO 30
KTS...EXPECT EMBEDDED CORES WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND SMALL
HAIL...POSSIBLY LOTS OF IT...BRINGING A POSSIBILITY OF SOME FLASH
FLOODING. THE LOCATION OF THE DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE WILL PIN THE
AREA FOR STRONGEST STORM POTENTIAL NEARING SEVERE ACROSS NATRONA
COUNTY...PARTICULARLY THE ERN/SRN HALF...WHERE ANYTHING WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THRU SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH VERY MOIST N TO NERLY LOW TO MID LVL FLOW WRAPPING
AROUND THE CYCLONE...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MID LVL
FRONTOGENESIS MOVING OVR THE ERN ZONES IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER
EMBEDDED UPR WAVE...AN AREA OF SOME CONCERN WILL BE THE AREA ERN
SLOPES OF THE BIGHORNS...ESPECIALLY THE SRN PORTION FROM RED WALL TO
KAYCEE AND POINTS SWD TO THE RATTLESNAKE RANGE WHERE LL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY MORNING...HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY FRONT THAT LOOKS TO HEADED THRU THE CNTRL AND SRN FA. SOME
MODEST SHRA/TSRA REDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR OVR THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS
RINGING THE BASINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE MOST LIKELY
AREA FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL OCCUR OVR THE SRN FA
ALONG AND BEHIND A NOW SLOWING FRONT.

THRU THE END OF THE FCST...SEASONALLY COOL WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND
AND CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL ACCOMPANY AN EQUALLY SLOW
TRANSITION FROM NW FLOW TO...FLAT...AND ON TO MODEST RIDGING BY THE
END OF THE FCST. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN LR MDLS AREA PLENTY BUT NOT
HUGELY IMPACTFUL. BLEND OF CURRENT TIMING FOR THE UPR LVL`S
EVOLUTION AND POSSIBLE EJECTING EMBEDDED WAVES PUTS A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVE PRECIP E OF THE DIVIDE TUE...WEST OF THE
DIVIDE WED AND THU...PUSHING NWD BY FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS FOR
THIS PORTION OF THE FCST LOOK TO FIND THEMSELVES OVR NATRONA TO ERN
FREMONT COUNTY LATER ON TUESDAY...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER VCNTY KRIW-
KCPR THROUGH AROUND 08Z BEFORE DISSIPATING.

ON SATURDAY...A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE
ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING WHERE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BLOSSOM IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY VCNTY AND SOUTH
OF A KRKS-KCPR LINE.  A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS FURTHER NORTH
AND WEST WILL KEEP ISOLD -TSRA CONFINED MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE
MTNS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AROUND 06Z
SUNDAY...SPREADING ISOLD SHOWERS SOUTH INTO VCNTY KCOD-KWRL-KBYG
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS REMAINING PREVAILING VFR BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN RESULTING IN NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW...WITH COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR OVER THE NORTH AND
EAST...AND DRIER AND WARMER AIR OVER THE SOUTHWEST. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND OVER THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH A FEW BECOMING STRONG ENOUGH TO MOVE OFF THE
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE MORE STABLE AIR IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE WIND RIVER AND BIGHORN BASINS AND THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES. CLEARING WILL BE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
WARMER AND DRIER ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND...WITH LESS
COVERAGE...OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. FEWER STORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVERALL AND ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...BRAUN
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER




000
FXUS65 KRIW 040546
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1145 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY (ISSUED AT 117 PM MDT)

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN RESULTING IN NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW...WITH COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR OVER THE NORTH AND
EAST...AND DRIER AND WARMER AIR OVER THE SOUTHWEST. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND OVER THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH A FEW BECOMING STRONG ENOUGH TO MOVE OFF THE
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE MORE STABLE AIR IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE WIND RIVER AND BIGHORN BASINS AND THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES. CLEARING WILL BE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
WARMER AND DRIER ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND...WITH LESS
COVERAGE...OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. FEWER STORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVERALL AND ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

BEGINNING OF FCST...QUITE A PROTECTIVE CAP IN PLACE WITH FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ABLE TO INITIATE EXCEPT OVR THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN THE
AREA AND PERHAPS OVR A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SRN FA AND ITS ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING WARM FRONT INTO SRN NATRONA
COUNTY. RELATIVELY LOW CAPE AND SHEAR... 300 - 700 J/KG AND 20 KTS
OR LESS RESPECTIVELY...WILL YIELD ONLY ISOLATED MODEST THUNDER IN
THESE AREAS WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MOST LIKELY CULPRIT.

SUNDAY...A COUPLE OF UPR LVL WAVES EMBEDDED IN BOTH THE THE SRN FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH AND THE NRN FLOW WILL COME TOGETHER AND PROVIDE EXTRA
MOISTURE AND LIFT ABOVE A DIVING CANADIAN COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
S ACROSS THE FA DURING THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE SFC LOW THAT WAS
DEVELOPING OVR SRN WY WILL BE INSPIRED TO JUMP EWD...SPINNING UP
INTO A LEE CYCLONE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF SERN WY AND NERN CO.
MUCH COOLER WITH CHCS FOR PRECIP...IN THE FORM OF STRONG SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...INCREASING OVR THE ENTIRE FA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. DYNAMICS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONG SKINNY CAPE WITH
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...PWS AT OR IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH FOR MOST
ALL LOCATIONS...AND DEEP SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS PLUS/MINUS. MOST STORMS
E OF THE DIVIDE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO ROTATE AND MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES FOR A WHILE. ALTHOUGH STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD RUN 20 TO 30
KTS...EXPECT EMBEDDED CORES WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND SMALL
HAIL...POSSIBLY LOTS OF IT...BRINGING A POSSIBILITY OF SOME FLASH
FLOODING. THE LOCATION OF THE DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE WILL PIN THE
AREA FOR STRONGEST STORM POTENTIAL NEARING SEVERE ACROSS NATRONA
COUNTY...PARTICULARLY THE ERN/SRN HALF...WHERE ANYTHING WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THRU SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH VERY MOIST N TO NERLY LOW TO MID LVL FLOW WRAPPING
AROUND THE CYCLONE...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MID LVL
FRONTOGENESIS MOVING OVR THE ERN ZONES IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER
EMBEDDED UPR WAVE...AN AREA OF SOME CONCERN WILL BE THE AREA ERN
SLOPES OF THE BIGHORNS...ESPECIALLY THE SRN PORTION FROM RED WALL TO
KAYCEE AND POINTS SWD TO THE RATTLESNAKE RANGE WHERE LL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY MORNING...HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY FRONT THAT LOOKS TO HEADED THRU THE CNTRL AND SRN FA. SOME
MODEST SHRA/TSRA REDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR OVR THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS
RINGING THE BASINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE MOST LIKELY
AREA FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL OCCUR OVR THE SRN FA
ALONG AND BEHIND A NOW SLOWING FRONT.

THRU THE END OF THE FCST...SEASONALLY COOL WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND
AND CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL ACCOMPANY AN EQUALLY SLOW
TRANSITION FROM NW FLOW TO...FLAT...AND ON TO MODEST RIDGING BY THE
END OF THE FCST. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN LR MDLS AREA PLENTY BUT NOT
HUGELY IMPACTFUL. BLEND OF CURRENT TIMING FOR THE UPR LVL`S
EVOLUTION AND POSSIBLE EJECTING EMBEDDED WAVES PUTS A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVE PRECIP E OF THE DIVIDE TUE...WEST OF THE
DIVIDE WED AND THU...PUSHING NWD BY FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS FOR
THIS PORTION OF THE FCST LOOK TO FIND THEMSELVES OVR NATRONA TO ERN
FREMONT COUNTY LATER ON TUESDAY...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER VCNTY KRIW-
KCPR THROUGH AROUND 08Z BEFORE DISSIPATING.

ON SATURDAY...A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE
ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING WHERE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BLOSSOM IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY VCNTY AND SOUTH
OF A KRKS-KCPR LINE.  A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS FURTHER NORTH
AND WEST WILL KEEP ISOLD -TSRA CONFINED MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE
MTNS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AROUND 06Z
SUNDAY...SPREADING ISOLD SHOWERS SOUTH INTO VCNTY KCOD-KWRL-KBYG
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS REMAINING PREVAILING VFR BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN RESULTING IN NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW...WITH COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR OVER THE NORTH AND
EAST...AND DRIER AND WARMER AIR OVER THE SOUTHWEST. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND OVER THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH A FEW BECOMING STRONG ENOUGH TO MOVE OFF THE
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE MORE STABLE AIR IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE WIND RIVER AND BIGHORN BASINS AND THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES. CLEARING WILL BE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
WARMER AND DRIER ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND...WITH LESS
COVERAGE...OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. FEWER STORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVERALL AND ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...BRAUN
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER




000
FXUS65 KRIW 040546
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1145 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY (ISSUED AT 117 PM MDT)

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN RESULTING IN NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW...WITH COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR OVER THE NORTH AND
EAST...AND DRIER AND WARMER AIR OVER THE SOUTHWEST. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND OVER THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH A FEW BECOMING STRONG ENOUGH TO MOVE OFF THE
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE MORE STABLE AIR IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE WIND RIVER AND BIGHORN BASINS AND THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES. CLEARING WILL BE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
WARMER AND DRIER ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND...WITH LESS
COVERAGE...OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. FEWER STORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVERALL AND ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

BEGINNING OF FCST...QUITE A PROTECTIVE CAP IN PLACE WITH FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ABLE TO INITIATE EXCEPT OVR THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN THE
AREA AND PERHAPS OVR A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SRN FA AND ITS ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING WARM FRONT INTO SRN NATRONA
COUNTY. RELATIVELY LOW CAPE AND SHEAR... 300 - 700 J/KG AND 20 KTS
OR LESS RESPECTIVELY...WILL YIELD ONLY ISOLATED MODEST THUNDER IN
THESE AREAS WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MOST LIKELY CULPRIT.

SUNDAY...A COUPLE OF UPR LVL WAVES EMBEDDED IN BOTH THE THE SRN FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH AND THE NRN FLOW WILL COME TOGETHER AND PROVIDE EXTRA
MOISTURE AND LIFT ABOVE A DIVING CANADIAN COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
S ACROSS THE FA DURING THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE SFC LOW THAT WAS
DEVELOPING OVR SRN WY WILL BE INSPIRED TO JUMP EWD...SPINNING UP
INTO A LEE CYCLONE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF SERN WY AND NERN CO.
MUCH COOLER WITH CHCS FOR PRECIP...IN THE FORM OF STRONG SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...INCREASING OVR THE ENTIRE FA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. DYNAMICS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONG SKINNY CAPE WITH
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...PWS AT OR IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH FOR MOST
ALL LOCATIONS...AND DEEP SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS PLUS/MINUS. MOST STORMS
E OF THE DIVIDE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO ROTATE AND MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES FOR A WHILE. ALTHOUGH STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD RUN 20 TO 30
KTS...EXPECT EMBEDDED CORES WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND SMALL
HAIL...POSSIBLY LOTS OF IT...BRINGING A POSSIBILITY OF SOME FLASH
FLOODING. THE LOCATION OF THE DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE WILL PIN THE
AREA FOR STRONGEST STORM POTENTIAL NEARING SEVERE ACROSS NATRONA
COUNTY...PARTICULARLY THE ERN/SRN HALF...WHERE ANYTHING WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THRU SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH VERY MOIST N TO NERLY LOW TO MID LVL FLOW WRAPPING
AROUND THE CYCLONE...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MID LVL
FRONTOGENESIS MOVING OVR THE ERN ZONES IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER
EMBEDDED UPR WAVE...AN AREA OF SOME CONCERN WILL BE THE AREA ERN
SLOPES OF THE BIGHORNS...ESPECIALLY THE SRN PORTION FROM RED WALL TO
KAYCEE AND POINTS SWD TO THE RATTLESNAKE RANGE WHERE LL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY MORNING...HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY FRONT THAT LOOKS TO HEADED THRU THE CNTRL AND SRN FA. SOME
MODEST SHRA/TSRA REDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR OVR THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS
RINGING THE BASINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE MOST LIKELY
AREA FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL OCCUR OVR THE SRN FA
ALONG AND BEHIND A NOW SLOWING FRONT.

THRU THE END OF THE FCST...SEASONALLY COOL WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND
AND CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL ACCOMPANY AN EQUALLY SLOW
TRANSITION FROM NW FLOW TO...FLAT...AND ON TO MODEST RIDGING BY THE
END OF THE FCST. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN LR MDLS AREA PLENTY BUT NOT
HUGELY IMPACTFUL. BLEND OF CURRENT TIMING FOR THE UPR LVL`S
EVOLUTION AND POSSIBLE EJECTING EMBEDDED WAVES PUTS A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVE PRECIP E OF THE DIVIDE TUE...WEST OF THE
DIVIDE WED AND THU...PUSHING NWD BY FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS FOR
THIS PORTION OF THE FCST LOOK TO FIND THEMSELVES OVR NATRONA TO ERN
FREMONT COUNTY LATER ON TUESDAY...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER VCNTY KRIW-
KCPR THROUGH AROUND 08Z BEFORE DISSIPATING.

ON SATURDAY...A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE
ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING WHERE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BLOSSOM IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY VCNTY AND SOUTH
OF A KRKS-KCPR LINE.  A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS FURTHER NORTH
AND WEST WILL KEEP ISOLD -TSRA CONFINED MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE
MTNS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AROUND 06Z
SUNDAY...SPREADING ISOLD SHOWERS SOUTH INTO VCNTY KCOD-KWRL-KBYG
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS REMAINING PREVAILING VFR BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN RESULTING IN NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW...WITH COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR OVER THE NORTH AND
EAST...AND DRIER AND WARMER AIR OVER THE SOUTHWEST. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND OVER THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH A FEW BECOMING STRONG ENOUGH TO MOVE OFF THE
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE MORE STABLE AIR IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE WIND RIVER AND BIGHORN BASINS AND THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES. CLEARING WILL BE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
WARMER AND DRIER ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND...WITH LESS
COVERAGE...OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. FEWER STORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVERALL AND ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...BRAUN
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER




000
FXUS65 KRIW 040546
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1145 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY (ISSUED AT 117 PM MDT)

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN RESULTING IN NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW...WITH COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR OVER THE NORTH AND
EAST...AND DRIER AND WARMER AIR OVER THE SOUTHWEST. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND OVER THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH A FEW BECOMING STRONG ENOUGH TO MOVE OFF THE
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE MORE STABLE AIR IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE WIND RIVER AND BIGHORN BASINS AND THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES. CLEARING WILL BE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
WARMER AND DRIER ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND...WITH LESS
COVERAGE...OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. FEWER STORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVERALL AND ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

BEGINNING OF FCST...QUITE A PROTECTIVE CAP IN PLACE WITH FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ABLE TO INITIATE EXCEPT OVR THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN THE
AREA AND PERHAPS OVR A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SRN FA AND ITS ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING WARM FRONT INTO SRN NATRONA
COUNTY. RELATIVELY LOW CAPE AND SHEAR... 300 - 700 J/KG AND 20 KTS
OR LESS RESPECTIVELY...WILL YIELD ONLY ISOLATED MODEST THUNDER IN
THESE AREAS WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MOST LIKELY CULPRIT.

SUNDAY...A COUPLE OF UPR LVL WAVES EMBEDDED IN BOTH THE THE SRN FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH AND THE NRN FLOW WILL COME TOGETHER AND PROVIDE EXTRA
MOISTURE AND LIFT ABOVE A DIVING CANADIAN COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
S ACROSS THE FA DURING THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE SFC LOW THAT WAS
DEVELOPING OVR SRN WY WILL BE INSPIRED TO JUMP EWD...SPINNING UP
INTO A LEE CYCLONE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF SERN WY AND NERN CO.
MUCH COOLER WITH CHCS FOR PRECIP...IN THE FORM OF STRONG SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...INCREASING OVR THE ENTIRE FA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. DYNAMICS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONG SKINNY CAPE WITH
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...PWS AT OR IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH FOR MOST
ALL LOCATIONS...AND DEEP SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS PLUS/MINUS. MOST STORMS
E OF THE DIVIDE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO ROTATE AND MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES FOR A WHILE. ALTHOUGH STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD RUN 20 TO 30
KTS...EXPECT EMBEDDED CORES WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND SMALL
HAIL...POSSIBLY LOTS OF IT...BRINGING A POSSIBILITY OF SOME FLASH
FLOODING. THE LOCATION OF THE DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE WILL PIN THE
AREA FOR STRONGEST STORM POTENTIAL NEARING SEVERE ACROSS NATRONA
COUNTY...PARTICULARLY THE ERN/SRN HALF...WHERE ANYTHING WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THRU SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH VERY MOIST N TO NERLY LOW TO MID LVL FLOW WRAPPING
AROUND THE CYCLONE...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MID LVL
FRONTOGENESIS MOVING OVR THE ERN ZONES IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER
EMBEDDED UPR WAVE...AN AREA OF SOME CONCERN WILL BE THE AREA ERN
SLOPES OF THE BIGHORNS...ESPECIALLY THE SRN PORTION FROM RED WALL TO
KAYCEE AND POINTS SWD TO THE RATTLESNAKE RANGE WHERE LL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY MORNING...HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY FRONT THAT LOOKS TO HEADED THRU THE CNTRL AND SRN FA. SOME
MODEST SHRA/TSRA REDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR OVR THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS
RINGING THE BASINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE MOST LIKELY
AREA FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL OCCUR OVR THE SRN FA
ALONG AND BEHIND A NOW SLOWING FRONT.

THRU THE END OF THE FCST...SEASONALLY COOL WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND
AND CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL ACCOMPANY AN EQUALLY SLOW
TRANSITION FROM NW FLOW TO...FLAT...AND ON TO MODEST RIDGING BY THE
END OF THE FCST. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN LR MDLS AREA PLENTY BUT NOT
HUGELY IMPACTFUL. BLEND OF CURRENT TIMING FOR THE UPR LVL`S
EVOLUTION AND POSSIBLE EJECTING EMBEDDED WAVES PUTS A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVE PRECIP E OF THE DIVIDE TUE...WEST OF THE
DIVIDE WED AND THU...PUSHING NWD BY FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS FOR
THIS PORTION OF THE FCST LOOK TO FIND THEMSELVES OVR NATRONA TO ERN
FREMONT COUNTY LATER ON TUESDAY...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER VCNTY KRIW-
KCPR THROUGH AROUND 08Z BEFORE DISSIPATING.

ON SATURDAY...A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE
ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING WHERE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BLOSSOM IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY VCNTY AND SOUTH
OF A KRKS-KCPR LINE.  A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS FURTHER NORTH
AND WEST WILL KEEP ISOLD -TSRA CONFINED MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE
MTNS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AROUND 06Z
SUNDAY...SPREADING ISOLD SHOWERS SOUTH INTO VCNTY KCOD-KWRL-KBYG
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS REMAINING PREVAILING VFR BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN RESULTING IN NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW...WITH COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR OVER THE NORTH AND
EAST...AND DRIER AND WARMER AIR OVER THE SOUTHWEST. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND OVER THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH A FEW BECOMING STRONG ENOUGH TO MOVE OFF THE
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE MORE STABLE AIR IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE WIND RIVER AND BIGHORN BASINS AND THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES. CLEARING WILL BE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
WARMER AND DRIER ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND...WITH LESS
COVERAGE...OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. FEWER STORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVERALL AND ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...BRAUN
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER




000
FXUS65 KCYS 040527
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1130 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 919 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

GRIDDED FORECASTS UPDATED FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES FROM NEAR SHIRLEY BASIN TO WHEATLAND.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
OVERNIGHT. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THE REST OF THE NIGHT...ALONG WITH
WINDS...BASED ON TRENDS AND THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A BIT OF CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE NORTH LARAMIE RANGE OTHERWISE
RATHER QUIET OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. LIKE IN RECENT DAYS
EXPECT TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION MAINLY AROUND THE MTNS
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING THIS EVENING.

WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY AS 700MB TEMPS NUDGE
UP ABOUT 2-5 DEGREES WITH MANY AREAS ON THE PLAINS REACHING WELL
INTO THE 90S. WARMING WILL BE AIDED BY A SFC TROF THAT SHOULD EDGE
EAST INTO THE PANHANDLE SAT AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD FIRE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SAT AFTERNOON AS WELL AS ALONG THIS SFC
TROF BUT WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY RATHER
ISOLATED.  ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE SAT NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES.

MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A SFC COOL FRONT
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT HELPING TO INCREASE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
BUT BETTER FORCING LOOKS TO PASS NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE LONG TERM AS A COUPLE NORTHERN
FRONTAL SYSTEMS INTERACT WITH SURGING MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH.

STARTING OFF MONDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
CWFA IN CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN COLORADO MONDAY AFTERNOON. STILL
SEEING SOME CONVECTION OVER OUR WESTERN MOUNTAINS FROM THE BACK
SIDE OF THE FRONT HANGING UP NEAR CARBON COUNTY. NORTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE MONDAY WITH PRETTY HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AT 850MBS. WOULD EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. CONTINUED UNDERCUTTING HIGHS
FOR MONDAY...PROBABLY STILL TOO HIGH IF THE STRATUS DOES PERSIST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS IT INTERACTS
WITH THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. HEAVY
RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. STEERING WINDS ARE WEAK AND
PWATS CLIMB TO CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES. ANOTHER SYSTEM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING)

IN GENERAL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE MAY IMPACT KCYS AND/OR KLAR
LATE TONIGHT...WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD EXPAND INTO THE WESTERN NEB
PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/LOCATION REMAINS LOW
AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON SAT AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A RATHER MOIST PATTERN EXPECTED. A COOL FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS SUNDAY BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MILD TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY THEN WARMER AGAIN
BY MIDWEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RUBIN
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...RE




000
FXUS65 KCYS 040527
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1130 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 919 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

GRIDDED FORECASTS UPDATED FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES FROM NEAR SHIRLEY BASIN TO WHEATLAND.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
OVERNIGHT. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THE REST OF THE NIGHT...ALONG WITH
WINDS...BASED ON TRENDS AND THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A BIT OF CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE NORTH LARAMIE RANGE OTHERWISE
RATHER QUIET OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. LIKE IN RECENT DAYS
EXPECT TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION MAINLY AROUND THE MTNS
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING THIS EVENING.

WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY AS 700MB TEMPS NUDGE
UP ABOUT 2-5 DEGREES WITH MANY AREAS ON THE PLAINS REACHING WELL
INTO THE 90S. WARMING WILL BE AIDED BY A SFC TROF THAT SHOULD EDGE
EAST INTO THE PANHANDLE SAT AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD FIRE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SAT AFTERNOON AS WELL AS ALONG THIS SFC
TROF BUT WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY RATHER
ISOLATED.  ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE SAT NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES.

MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A SFC COOL FRONT
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT HELPING TO INCREASE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
BUT BETTER FORCING LOOKS TO PASS NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE LONG TERM AS A COUPLE NORTHERN
FRONTAL SYSTEMS INTERACT WITH SURGING MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH.

STARTING OFF MONDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
CWFA IN CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN COLORADO MONDAY AFTERNOON. STILL
SEEING SOME CONVECTION OVER OUR WESTERN MOUNTAINS FROM THE BACK
SIDE OF THE FRONT HANGING UP NEAR CARBON COUNTY. NORTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE MONDAY WITH PRETTY HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AT 850MBS. WOULD EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. CONTINUED UNDERCUTTING HIGHS
FOR MONDAY...PROBABLY STILL TOO HIGH IF THE STRATUS DOES PERSIST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS IT INTERACTS
WITH THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. HEAVY
RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. STEERING WINDS ARE WEAK AND
PWATS CLIMB TO CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES. ANOTHER SYSTEM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING)

IN GENERAL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE MAY IMPACT KCYS AND/OR KLAR
LATE TONIGHT...WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD EXPAND INTO THE WESTERN NEB
PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/LOCATION REMAINS LOW
AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON SAT AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A RATHER MOIST PATTERN EXPECTED. A COOL FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS SUNDAY BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MILD TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY THEN WARMER AGAIN
BY MIDWEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RUBIN
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...RE



000
FXUS63 KUNR 040508
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1108 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A 1016MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS RESULTED IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS OFF OF THE BLACK HILLS. IN ADDITION TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE BLACK HILLS...MODELS INDICATE
CONVECTION FIRING OFF THE BIGHORNS AND HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF
CAMPBELL AND WESTON COUNTIES. NONE OF THE CONVECTION TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

TONIGHT...THE LLJ STRENGTHENS OVER PART OF THE CWA AND MODELS INDICATE
SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND 6Z. ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT
IS RATHER WEAK...BUT HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS.

FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...MOST OF CWA WILL BE IN A WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD SURFACE LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
VERY WEAK...IF ANY...FORCING ALOFT AND ONLY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE STORM CHANCES WILL BE VERY LIMITED
ACROSS THE CWA...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR
THE BLACK HILLS WHERE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COULD HELP INITIATE A
STORM OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS...MODEL
GUIDANCE HINTS AT ISOLATED CONVECTION FIRING OFF ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS THE CAP SLOWLY ERODES BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH CAPE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG...AND
0-6KM SHEAR APPROACHING 40 KNOTS...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM
COULD BE SEVERE. CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA COULD
PERSIST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE LLJ STRENGTHENING
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. EXACT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY THE POST FRONTAL SHORTWAVE. ECMWF IS SLOWER
THAN THE NAM...WITH THE GFS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. IN
GENERAL...WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON TIMING...BUT AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS IN A BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
HAVE THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT
HERE EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT
TIMES...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA SAT AFTERNOON. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 040508
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1108 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A 1016MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS RESULTED IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS OFF OF THE BLACK HILLS. IN ADDITION TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE BLACK HILLS...MODELS INDICATE
CONVECTION FIRING OFF THE BIGHORNS AND HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF
CAMPBELL AND WESTON COUNTIES. NONE OF THE CONVECTION TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

TONIGHT...THE LLJ STRENGTHENS OVER PART OF THE CWA AND MODELS INDICATE
SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND 6Z. ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT
IS RATHER WEAK...BUT HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS.

FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...MOST OF CWA WILL BE IN A WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD SURFACE LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
VERY WEAK...IF ANY...FORCING ALOFT AND ONLY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE STORM CHANCES WILL BE VERY LIMITED
ACROSS THE CWA...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR
THE BLACK HILLS WHERE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COULD HELP INITIATE A
STORM OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS...MODEL
GUIDANCE HINTS AT ISOLATED CONVECTION FIRING OFF ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS THE CAP SLOWLY ERODES BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH CAPE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG...AND
0-6KM SHEAR APPROACHING 40 KNOTS...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM
COULD BE SEVERE. CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA COULD
PERSIST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE LLJ STRENGTHENING
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. EXACT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY THE POST FRONTAL SHORTWAVE. ECMWF IS SLOWER
THAN THE NAM...WITH THE GFS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. IN
GENERAL...WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON TIMING...BUT AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS IN A BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
HAVE THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT
HERE EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT
TIMES...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA SAT AFTERNOON. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 040508
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1108 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A 1016MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS RESULTED IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS OFF OF THE BLACK HILLS. IN ADDITION TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE BLACK HILLS...MODELS INDICATE
CONVECTION FIRING OFF THE BIGHORNS AND HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF
CAMPBELL AND WESTON COUNTIES. NONE OF THE CONVECTION TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

TONIGHT...THE LLJ STRENGTHENS OVER PART OF THE CWA AND MODELS INDICATE
SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND 6Z. ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT
IS RATHER WEAK...BUT HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS.

FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...MOST OF CWA WILL BE IN A WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD SURFACE LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
VERY WEAK...IF ANY...FORCING ALOFT AND ONLY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE STORM CHANCES WILL BE VERY LIMITED
ACROSS THE CWA...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR
THE BLACK HILLS WHERE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COULD HELP INITIATE A
STORM OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS...MODEL
GUIDANCE HINTS AT ISOLATED CONVECTION FIRING OFF ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS THE CAP SLOWLY ERODES BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH CAPE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG...AND
0-6KM SHEAR APPROACHING 40 KNOTS...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM
COULD BE SEVERE. CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA COULD
PERSIST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE LLJ STRENGTHENING
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. EXACT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY THE POST FRONTAL SHORTWAVE. ECMWF IS SLOWER
THAN THE NAM...WITH THE GFS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. IN
GENERAL...WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON TIMING...BUT AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS IN A BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
HAVE THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT
HERE EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT
TIMES...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA SAT AFTERNOON. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 040508
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1108 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A 1016MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS RESULTED IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS OFF OF THE BLACK HILLS. IN ADDITION TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE BLACK HILLS...MODELS INDICATE
CONVECTION FIRING OFF THE BIGHORNS AND HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF
CAMPBELL AND WESTON COUNTIES. NONE OF THE CONVECTION TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

TONIGHT...THE LLJ STRENGTHENS OVER PART OF THE CWA AND MODELS INDICATE
SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND 6Z. ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT
IS RATHER WEAK...BUT HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS.

FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...MOST OF CWA WILL BE IN A WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD SURFACE LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
VERY WEAK...IF ANY...FORCING ALOFT AND ONLY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE STORM CHANCES WILL BE VERY LIMITED
ACROSS THE CWA...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR
THE BLACK HILLS WHERE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COULD HELP INITIATE A
STORM OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS...MODEL
GUIDANCE HINTS AT ISOLATED CONVECTION FIRING OFF ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS THE CAP SLOWLY ERODES BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH CAPE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG...AND
0-6KM SHEAR APPROACHING 40 KNOTS...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM
COULD BE SEVERE. CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA COULD
PERSIST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE LLJ STRENGTHENING
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. EXACT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY THE POST FRONTAL SHORTWAVE. ECMWF IS SLOWER
THAN THE NAM...WITH THE GFS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. IN
GENERAL...WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON TIMING...BUT AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS IN A BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
HAVE THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT
HERE EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT
TIMES...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA SAT AFTERNOON. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 040508
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1108 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A 1016MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS RESULTED IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS OFF OF THE BLACK HILLS. IN ADDITION TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE BLACK HILLS...MODELS INDICATE
CONVECTION FIRING OFF THE BIGHORNS AND HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF
CAMPBELL AND WESTON COUNTIES. NONE OF THE CONVECTION TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

TONIGHT...THE LLJ STRENGTHENS OVER PART OF THE CWA AND MODELS INDICATE
SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND 6Z. ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT
IS RATHER WEAK...BUT HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS.

FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...MOST OF CWA WILL BE IN A WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD SURFACE LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
VERY WEAK...IF ANY...FORCING ALOFT AND ONLY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE STORM CHANCES WILL BE VERY LIMITED
ACROSS THE CWA...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR
THE BLACK HILLS WHERE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COULD HELP INITIATE A
STORM OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS...MODEL
GUIDANCE HINTS AT ISOLATED CONVECTION FIRING OFF ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS THE CAP SLOWLY ERODES BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH CAPE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG...AND
0-6KM SHEAR APPROACHING 40 KNOTS...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM
COULD BE SEVERE. CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA COULD
PERSIST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE LLJ STRENGTHENING
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. EXACT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY THE POST FRONTAL SHORTWAVE. ECMWF IS SLOWER
THAN THE NAM...WITH THE GFS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. IN
GENERAL...WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON TIMING...BUT AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS IN A BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
HAVE THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT
HERE EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT
TIMES...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA SAT AFTERNOON. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 040508
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1108 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A 1016MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS RESULTED IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS OFF OF THE BLACK HILLS. IN ADDITION TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE BLACK HILLS...MODELS INDICATE
CONVECTION FIRING OFF THE BIGHORNS AND HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF
CAMPBELL AND WESTON COUNTIES. NONE OF THE CONVECTION TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

TONIGHT...THE LLJ STRENGTHENS OVER PART OF THE CWA AND MODELS INDICATE
SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND 6Z. ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT
IS RATHER WEAK...BUT HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS.

FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...MOST OF CWA WILL BE IN A WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD SURFACE LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
VERY WEAK...IF ANY...FORCING ALOFT AND ONLY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE STORM CHANCES WILL BE VERY LIMITED
ACROSS THE CWA...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR
THE BLACK HILLS WHERE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COULD HELP INITIATE A
STORM OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS...MODEL
GUIDANCE HINTS AT ISOLATED CONVECTION FIRING OFF ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS THE CAP SLOWLY ERODES BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH CAPE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG...AND
0-6KM SHEAR APPROACHING 40 KNOTS...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM
COULD BE SEVERE. CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA COULD
PERSIST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE LLJ STRENGTHENING
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. EXACT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY THE POST FRONTAL SHORTWAVE. ECMWF IS SLOWER
THAN THE NAM...WITH THE GFS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. IN
GENERAL...WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON TIMING...BUT AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS IN A BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
HAVE THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT
HERE EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT
TIMES...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA SAT AFTERNOON. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 040508
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1108 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A 1016MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS RESULTED IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS OFF OF THE BLACK HILLS. IN ADDITION TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE BLACK HILLS...MODELS INDICATE
CONVECTION FIRING OFF THE BIGHORNS AND HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF
CAMPBELL AND WESTON COUNTIES. NONE OF THE CONVECTION TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

TONIGHT...THE LLJ STRENGTHENS OVER PART OF THE CWA AND MODELS INDICATE
SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND 6Z. ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT
IS RATHER WEAK...BUT HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS.

FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...MOST OF CWA WILL BE IN A WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD SURFACE LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
VERY WEAK...IF ANY...FORCING ALOFT AND ONLY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE STORM CHANCES WILL BE VERY LIMITED
ACROSS THE CWA...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR
THE BLACK HILLS WHERE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COULD HELP INITIATE A
STORM OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS...MODEL
GUIDANCE HINTS AT ISOLATED CONVECTION FIRING OFF ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS THE CAP SLOWLY ERODES BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH CAPE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG...AND
0-6KM SHEAR APPROACHING 40 KNOTS...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM
COULD BE SEVERE. CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA COULD
PERSIST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE LLJ STRENGTHENING
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. EXACT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY THE POST FRONTAL SHORTWAVE. ECMWF IS SLOWER
THAN THE NAM...WITH THE GFS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. IN
GENERAL...WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON TIMING...BUT AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS IN A BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
HAVE THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT
HERE EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT
TIMES...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA SAT AFTERNOON. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 040508
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1108 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A 1016MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS RESULTED IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS OFF OF THE BLACK HILLS. IN ADDITION TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE BLACK HILLS...MODELS INDICATE
CONVECTION FIRING OFF THE BIGHORNS AND HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF
CAMPBELL AND WESTON COUNTIES. NONE OF THE CONVECTION TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

TONIGHT...THE LLJ STRENGTHENS OVER PART OF THE CWA AND MODELS INDICATE
SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND 6Z. ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT
IS RATHER WEAK...BUT HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS.

FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...MOST OF CWA WILL BE IN A WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD SURFACE LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
VERY WEAK...IF ANY...FORCING ALOFT AND ONLY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE STORM CHANCES WILL BE VERY LIMITED
ACROSS THE CWA...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR
THE BLACK HILLS WHERE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COULD HELP INITIATE A
STORM OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS...MODEL
GUIDANCE HINTS AT ISOLATED CONVECTION FIRING OFF ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS THE CAP SLOWLY ERODES BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH CAPE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG...AND
0-6KM SHEAR APPROACHING 40 KNOTS...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM
COULD BE SEVERE. CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA COULD
PERSIST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE LLJ STRENGTHENING
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. EXACT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY THE POST FRONTAL SHORTWAVE. ECMWF IS SLOWER
THAN THE NAM...WITH THE GFS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. IN
GENERAL...WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON TIMING...BUT AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS IN A BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
HAVE THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT
HERE EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT
TIMES...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA SAT AFTERNOON. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS65 KCYS 040328
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
928 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 919 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

GRIDDED FORECASTS UPDATED FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES FROM NEAR SHIRLEY BASIN TO WHEATLAND.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
OVERNIGHT. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THE REST OF THE NIGHT...ALONG WITH
WINDS...BASED ON TRENDS AND THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A BIT OF CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE NORTH LARAMIE RANGE OTHERWISE
RATHER QUIET OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. LIKE IN RECENT DAYS
EXPECT TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION MAINLY AROUND THE MTNS
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING THIS EVENING.

WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY AS 700MB TEMPS NUDGE
UP ABOUT 2-5 DEGREES WITH MANY AREAS ON THE PLAINS REACHING WELL
INTO THE 90S. WARMING WILL BE AIDED BY A SFC TROF THAT SHOULD EDGE
EAST INTO THE PANHANDLE SAT AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD FIRE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SAT AFTERNOON AS WELL AS ALONG THIS SFC
TROF BUT WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY RATHER
ISOLATED.  ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE SAT NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES.

MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A SFC COOL FRONT
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT HELPING TO INCREASE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
BUT BETTER FORCING LOOKS TO PASS NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE LONG TERM AS A COUPLE NORTHERN
FRONTAL SYSTEMS INTERACT WITH SURGING MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH.

STARTING OFF MONDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
CWFA IN CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN COLORADO MONDAY AFTERNOON. STILL
SEEING SOME CONVECTION OVER OUR WESTERN MOUNTAINS FROM THE BACK
SIDE OF THE FRONT HANGING UP NEAR CARBON COUNTY. NORTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE MONDAY WITH PRETTY HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AT 850MBS. WOULD EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. CONTINUED UNDERCUTTING HIGHS
FOR MONDAY...PROBABLY STILL TOO HIGH IF THE STRATUS DOES PERSIST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS IT INTERACTS
WITH THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. HEAVY
RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. STEERING WINDS ARE WEAK AND
PWATS CLIMB TO CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES. ANOTHER SYSTEM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

IN GENERAL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE COULD IMPACT KCYS AND/OR
KLAR THIS EVENING...WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD EXPAND INTO THE WESTERN NEB
PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/LOCATION REMAINS
LOW AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON SAT
AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A RATHER MOIST PATTERN EXPECTED. A COOL FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS SUNDAY BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MILD TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY THEN WARMER AGAIN
BY MIDWEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RUBIN
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...RE




000
FXUS65 KCYS 040328
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
928 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 919 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

GRIDDED FORECASTS UPDATED FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES FROM NEAR SHIRLEY BASIN TO WHEATLAND.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
OVERNIGHT. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THE REST OF THE NIGHT...ALONG WITH
WINDS...BASED ON TRENDS AND THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A BIT OF CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE NORTH LARAMIE RANGE OTHERWISE
RATHER QUIET OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. LIKE IN RECENT DAYS
EXPECT TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION MAINLY AROUND THE MTNS
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING THIS EVENING.

WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY AS 700MB TEMPS NUDGE
UP ABOUT 2-5 DEGREES WITH MANY AREAS ON THE PLAINS REACHING WELL
INTO THE 90S. WARMING WILL BE AIDED BY A SFC TROF THAT SHOULD EDGE
EAST INTO THE PANHANDLE SAT AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD FIRE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SAT AFTERNOON AS WELL AS ALONG THIS SFC
TROF BUT WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY RATHER
ISOLATED.  ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE SAT NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES.

MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A SFC COOL FRONT
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT HELPING TO INCREASE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
BUT BETTER FORCING LOOKS TO PASS NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE LONG TERM AS A COUPLE NORTHERN
FRONTAL SYSTEMS INTERACT WITH SURGING MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH.

STARTING OFF MONDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
CWFA IN CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN COLORADO MONDAY AFTERNOON. STILL
SEEING SOME CONVECTION OVER OUR WESTERN MOUNTAINS FROM THE BACK
SIDE OF THE FRONT HANGING UP NEAR CARBON COUNTY. NORTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE MONDAY WITH PRETTY HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AT 850MBS. WOULD EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. CONTINUED UNDERCUTTING HIGHS
FOR MONDAY...PROBABLY STILL TOO HIGH IF THE STRATUS DOES PERSIST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS IT INTERACTS
WITH THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. HEAVY
RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. STEERING WINDS ARE WEAK AND
PWATS CLIMB TO CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES. ANOTHER SYSTEM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

IN GENERAL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE COULD IMPACT KCYS AND/OR
KLAR THIS EVENING...WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD EXPAND INTO THE WESTERN NEB
PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/LOCATION REMAINS
LOW AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON SAT
AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A RATHER MOIST PATTERN EXPECTED. A COOL FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS SUNDAY BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MILD TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY THEN WARMER AGAIN
BY MIDWEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RUBIN
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...RE



000
FXUS65 KCYS 032356
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
556 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A BIT OF CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE NORTH LARAMIE RANGE OTHERWISE
RATHER QUIET OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. LIKE IN RECENT DAYS
EXPECT TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION MAINLY AROUND THE MTNS
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING THIS EVENING.

WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY AS 700MB TEMPS NUDGE
UP ABOUT 2-5 DEGREES WITH MANY AREAS ON THE PLAINS REACHING WELL
INTO THE 90S. WARMING WILL BE AIDED BY A SFC TROF THAT SHOULD EDGE
EAST INTO THE PANHANDLE SAT AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD FIRE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SAT AFTERNOON AS WELL AS ALONG THIS SFC
TROF BUT WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY RATHER
ISOLATED.  ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE SAT NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES.

MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A SFC COOL FRONT
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT HELPING TO INCREASE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
BUT BETTER FORCING LOOKS TO PASS NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE LONG TERM AS A COUPLE NORTHERN
FRONTAL SYSTEMS INTERACT WITH SURGING MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH.

STARTING OFF MONDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
CWFA IN CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN COLORADO MONDAY AFTERNOON. STILL
SEEING SOME CONVECTION OVER OUR WESTERN MOUNTAINS FROM THE BACK
SIDE OF THE FRONT HANGING UP NEAR CARBON COUNTY. NORTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE MONDAY WITH PRETTY HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AT 850MBS. WOULD EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. CONTINUED UNDERCUTTING HIGHS
FOR MONDAY...PROBABLY STILL TOO HIGH IF THE STRATUS DOES PERSIST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS IT INTERACTS
WITH THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. HEAVY
RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. STEERING WINDS ARE WEAK AND
PWATS CLIMB TO CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES. ANOTHER SYSTEM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

IN GENERAL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE COULD IMPACT KCYS AND/OR
KLAR THIS EVENING...WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD EXPAND INTO THE WESTERN NEB
PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/LOCATION REMAINS
LOW AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON SAT
AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A RATHER MOIST PATTERN EXPECTED. A COOL FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS SUNDAY BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MILD TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY THEN WARMER AGAIN
BY MIDWEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...RE



000
FXUS65 KCYS 032356
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
556 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A BIT OF CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE NORTH LARAMIE RANGE OTHERWISE
RATHER QUIET OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. LIKE IN RECENT DAYS
EXPECT TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION MAINLY AROUND THE MTNS
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING THIS EVENING.

WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY AS 700MB TEMPS NUDGE
UP ABOUT 2-5 DEGREES WITH MANY AREAS ON THE PLAINS REACHING WELL
INTO THE 90S. WARMING WILL BE AIDED BY A SFC TROF THAT SHOULD EDGE
EAST INTO THE PANHANDLE SAT AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD FIRE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SAT AFTERNOON AS WELL AS ALONG THIS SFC
TROF BUT WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY RATHER
ISOLATED.  ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE SAT NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES.

MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A SFC COOL FRONT
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT HELPING TO INCREASE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
BUT BETTER FORCING LOOKS TO PASS NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE LONG TERM AS A COUPLE NORTHERN
FRONTAL SYSTEMS INTERACT WITH SURGING MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH.

STARTING OFF MONDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
CWFA IN CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN COLORADO MONDAY AFTERNOON. STILL
SEEING SOME CONVECTION OVER OUR WESTERN MOUNTAINS FROM THE BACK
SIDE OF THE FRONT HANGING UP NEAR CARBON COUNTY. NORTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE MONDAY WITH PRETTY HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AT 850MBS. WOULD EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. CONTINUED UNDERCUTTING HIGHS
FOR MONDAY...PROBABLY STILL TOO HIGH IF THE STRATUS DOES PERSIST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS IT INTERACTS
WITH THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. HEAVY
RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. STEERING WINDS ARE WEAK AND
PWATS CLIMB TO CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES. ANOTHER SYSTEM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

IN GENERAL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE COULD IMPACT KCYS AND/OR
KLAR THIS EVENING...WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD EXPAND INTO THE WESTERN NEB
PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/LOCATION REMAINS
LOW AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON SAT
AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A RATHER MOIST PATTERN EXPECTED. A COOL FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS SUNDAY BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MILD TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY THEN WARMER AGAIN
BY MIDWEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...RE




000
FXUS65 KCYS 032356
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
556 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A BIT OF CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE NORTH LARAMIE RANGE OTHERWISE
RATHER QUIET OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. LIKE IN RECENT DAYS
EXPECT TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION MAINLY AROUND THE MTNS
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING THIS EVENING.

WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY AS 700MB TEMPS NUDGE
UP ABOUT 2-5 DEGREES WITH MANY AREAS ON THE PLAINS REACHING WELL
INTO THE 90S. WARMING WILL BE AIDED BY A SFC TROF THAT SHOULD EDGE
EAST INTO THE PANHANDLE SAT AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD FIRE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SAT AFTERNOON AS WELL AS ALONG THIS SFC
TROF BUT WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY RATHER
ISOLATED.  ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE SAT NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES.

MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A SFC COOL FRONT
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT HELPING TO INCREASE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
BUT BETTER FORCING LOOKS TO PASS NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE LONG TERM AS A COUPLE NORTHERN
FRONTAL SYSTEMS INTERACT WITH SURGING MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH.

STARTING OFF MONDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
CWFA IN CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN COLORADO MONDAY AFTERNOON. STILL
SEEING SOME CONVECTION OVER OUR WESTERN MOUNTAINS FROM THE BACK
SIDE OF THE FRONT HANGING UP NEAR CARBON COUNTY. NORTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE MONDAY WITH PRETTY HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AT 850MBS. WOULD EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. CONTINUED UNDERCUTTING HIGHS
FOR MONDAY...PROBABLY STILL TOO HIGH IF THE STRATUS DOES PERSIST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS IT INTERACTS
WITH THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. HEAVY
RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. STEERING WINDS ARE WEAK AND
PWATS CLIMB TO CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES. ANOTHER SYSTEM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

IN GENERAL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE COULD IMPACT KCYS AND/OR
KLAR THIS EVENING...WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD EXPAND INTO THE WESTERN NEB
PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/LOCATION REMAINS
LOW AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON SAT
AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A RATHER MOIST PATTERN EXPECTED. A COOL FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS SUNDAY BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MILD TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY THEN WARMER AGAIN
BY MIDWEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...RE




000
FXUS65 KCYS 032356
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
556 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A BIT OF CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE NORTH LARAMIE RANGE OTHERWISE
RATHER QUIET OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. LIKE IN RECENT DAYS
EXPECT TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION MAINLY AROUND THE MTNS
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING THIS EVENING.

WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY AS 700MB TEMPS NUDGE
UP ABOUT 2-5 DEGREES WITH MANY AREAS ON THE PLAINS REACHING WELL
INTO THE 90S. WARMING WILL BE AIDED BY A SFC TROF THAT SHOULD EDGE
EAST INTO THE PANHANDLE SAT AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD FIRE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SAT AFTERNOON AS WELL AS ALONG THIS SFC
TROF BUT WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY RATHER
ISOLATED.  ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE SAT NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES.

MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A SFC COOL FRONT
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT HELPING TO INCREASE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
BUT BETTER FORCING LOOKS TO PASS NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE LONG TERM AS A COUPLE NORTHERN
FRONTAL SYSTEMS INTERACT WITH SURGING MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH.

STARTING OFF MONDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
CWFA IN CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN COLORADO MONDAY AFTERNOON. STILL
SEEING SOME CONVECTION OVER OUR WESTERN MOUNTAINS FROM THE BACK
SIDE OF THE FRONT HANGING UP NEAR CARBON COUNTY. NORTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE MONDAY WITH PRETTY HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AT 850MBS. WOULD EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. CONTINUED UNDERCUTTING HIGHS
FOR MONDAY...PROBABLY STILL TOO HIGH IF THE STRATUS DOES PERSIST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS IT INTERACTS
WITH THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. HEAVY
RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. STEERING WINDS ARE WEAK AND
PWATS CLIMB TO CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES. ANOTHER SYSTEM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

IN GENERAL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE COULD IMPACT KCYS AND/OR
KLAR THIS EVENING...WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD EXPAND INTO THE WESTERN NEB
PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/LOCATION REMAINS
LOW AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON SAT
AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A RATHER MOIST PATTERN EXPECTED. A COOL FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS SUNDAY BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MILD TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY THEN WARMER AGAIN
BY MIDWEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...RE



000
FXUS63 KUNR 032310
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
510 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A 1016MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS RESULTED IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS OFF OF THE BLACK HILLS. IN ADDITION TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE BLACK HILLS...MODELS INDICATE
CONVECTION FIRING OFF THE BIGHORNS AND HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF
CAMPBELL AND WESTON COUNTIES. NONE OF THE CONVECTION TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

TONIGHT...THE LLJ STRENGTHENS OVER PART OF THE CWA AND MODELS INDICATE
SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND 6Z. ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT
IS RATHER WEAK...BUT HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS.

FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...MOST OF CWA WILL BE IN A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD SURFACE LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY
WEAK...IF ANY...FORCING ALOFT AND ONLY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE STORM CHANCES WILL BE VERY LIMITED
ACROSS THE CWA...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR
THE BLACK HILLS WHERE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COULD HELP INITIATE A
STORM OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS...MODEL
GUIDANCE HINTS AT ISOLATED CONVECTION FIRING OFF ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS THE CAP SLOWLY ERODES BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH CAPE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG...AND
0-6KM SHEAR APPROACHING 40 KNOTS...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM
COULD BE SEVERE. CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA COULD
PERSIST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE LLJ STRENGTHENING AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. EXACT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY THE POST FRONTAL SHORTWAVE. ECMWF IS SLOWER
THAN THE NAM...WITH THE GFS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. IN
GENERAL...WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON TIMING...BUT AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS IN A BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
HAVE THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT
HERE EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 505 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT
TIMES...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK
HILLS AREA. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE OVER
MUCH OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SAT AFTERNOON. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 032310
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
510 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A 1016MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS RESULTED IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS OFF OF THE BLACK HILLS. IN ADDITION TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE BLACK HILLS...MODELS INDICATE
CONVECTION FIRING OFF THE BIGHORNS AND HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF
CAMPBELL AND WESTON COUNTIES. NONE OF THE CONVECTION TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

TONIGHT...THE LLJ STRENGTHENS OVER PART OF THE CWA AND MODELS INDICATE
SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND 6Z. ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT
IS RATHER WEAK...BUT HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS.

FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...MOST OF CWA WILL BE IN A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD SURFACE LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY
WEAK...IF ANY...FORCING ALOFT AND ONLY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE STORM CHANCES WILL BE VERY LIMITED
ACROSS THE CWA...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR
THE BLACK HILLS WHERE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COULD HELP INITIATE A
STORM OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS...MODEL
GUIDANCE HINTS AT ISOLATED CONVECTION FIRING OFF ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS THE CAP SLOWLY ERODES BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH CAPE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG...AND
0-6KM SHEAR APPROACHING 40 KNOTS...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM
COULD BE SEVERE. CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA COULD
PERSIST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE LLJ STRENGTHENING AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. EXACT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY THE POST FRONTAL SHORTWAVE. ECMWF IS SLOWER
THAN THE NAM...WITH THE GFS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. IN
GENERAL...WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON TIMING...BUT AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS IN A BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
HAVE THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT
HERE EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 505 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT
TIMES...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK
HILLS AREA. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE OVER
MUCH OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SAT AFTERNOON. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS65 KCYS 032054
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
254 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A BIT OF CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE NORTH LARAMIE RANGE OTHERWISE
RATHER QUIET OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. LIKE IN RECENT DAYS
EXPECT TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION MAINLY AROUND THE MTNS
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING THIS EVENING.

WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY AS 700MB TEMPS NUDGE
UP ABOUT 2-5 DEGREES WITH MANY AREAS ON THE PLAINS REACHING WELL
INTO THE 90S. WARMING WILL BE AIDED BY A SFC TROF THAT SHOULD EDGE
EAST INTO THE PANHANDLE SAT AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD FIRE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SAT AFTERNOON AS WELL AS ALONG THIS SFC
TROF BUT WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY RATHER
ISOLATED.  ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE SAT NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES.

MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A SFC COOL FRONT
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT HELPING TO INCREASE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
BUT BETTER FORCING LOOKS TO PASS NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE LONG TERM AS A COUPLE NORTHERN
FRONTAL SYSTEMS INTERACT WITH SURGING MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH.

STARTING OFF MONDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
CWFA IN CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN COLORADO MONDAY AFTERNOON. STILL
SEEING SOME CONVECTION OVER OUR WESTERN MOUNTAINS FROM THE BACK
SIDE OF THE FRONT HANGING UP NEAR CARBON COUNTY. NORTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE MONDAY WITH PRETTY HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AT 850MBS. WOULD EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. CONTINUED UNDERCUTTING HIGHS
FOR MONDAY...PROBABLY STILL TOO HIGH IF THE STRATUS DOES PERSIST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS IT INTERACTS
WITH THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. HEAVY
RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. STEERING WINDS ARE WEAK AND
PWATS CLIMB TO CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES. ANOTHER SYSTEM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINANTLY. USED LATEST HRRR FORECAST FOR TIMING
ON CONVECTION AT KCYS AND KLAR THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR SUGGESTING THE
POSSIBILITY OF LATE NIGHT CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN THAT COULD IMPACT
KBFF AND KSNY OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WENT WITH VCTS WORDING IN THEIR
TAFS. WILL TRY TO NARROW DOWN TIMING AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A RATHER MOIST PATTERN EXPECTED. A COOL FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS SUNDAY BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MILD TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY THEN WARMER AGAIN
BY MIDWEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RE




000
FXUS65 KCYS 032054
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
254 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A BIT OF CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE NORTH LARAMIE RANGE OTHERWISE
RATHER QUIET OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. LIKE IN RECENT DAYS
EXPECT TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION MAINLY AROUND THE MTNS
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING THIS EVENING.

WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY AS 700MB TEMPS NUDGE
UP ABOUT 2-5 DEGREES WITH MANY AREAS ON THE PLAINS REACHING WELL
INTO THE 90S. WARMING WILL BE AIDED BY A SFC TROF THAT SHOULD EDGE
EAST INTO THE PANHANDLE SAT AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD FIRE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SAT AFTERNOON AS WELL AS ALONG THIS SFC
TROF BUT WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY RATHER
ISOLATED.  ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE SAT NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES.

MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A SFC COOL FRONT
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT HELPING TO INCREASE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
BUT BETTER FORCING LOOKS TO PASS NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE LONG TERM AS A COUPLE NORTHERN
FRONTAL SYSTEMS INTERACT WITH SURGING MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH.

STARTING OFF MONDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
CWFA IN CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN COLORADO MONDAY AFTERNOON. STILL
SEEING SOME CONVECTION OVER OUR WESTERN MOUNTAINS FROM THE BACK
SIDE OF THE FRONT HANGING UP NEAR CARBON COUNTY. NORTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE MONDAY WITH PRETTY HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AT 850MBS. WOULD EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. CONTINUED UNDERCUTTING HIGHS
FOR MONDAY...PROBABLY STILL TOO HIGH IF THE STRATUS DOES PERSIST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS IT INTERACTS
WITH THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. HEAVY
RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. STEERING WINDS ARE WEAK AND
PWATS CLIMB TO CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES. ANOTHER SYSTEM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINANTLY. USED LATEST HRRR FORECAST FOR TIMING
ON CONVECTION AT KCYS AND KLAR THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR SUGGESTING THE
POSSIBILITY OF LATE NIGHT CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN THAT COULD IMPACT
KBFF AND KSNY OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WENT WITH VCTS WORDING IN THEIR
TAFS. WILL TRY TO NARROW DOWN TIMING AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A RATHER MOIST PATTERN EXPECTED. A COOL FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS SUNDAY BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MILD TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY THEN WARMER AGAIN
BY MIDWEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RE



000
FXUS65 KCYS 032054
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
254 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A BIT OF CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE NORTH LARAMIE RANGE OTHERWISE
RATHER QUIET OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. LIKE IN RECENT DAYS
EXPECT TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION MAINLY AROUND THE MTNS
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING THIS EVENING.

WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY AS 700MB TEMPS NUDGE
UP ABOUT 2-5 DEGREES WITH MANY AREAS ON THE PLAINS REACHING WELL
INTO THE 90S. WARMING WILL BE AIDED BY A SFC TROF THAT SHOULD EDGE
EAST INTO THE PANHANDLE SAT AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD FIRE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SAT AFTERNOON AS WELL AS ALONG THIS SFC
TROF BUT WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY RATHER
ISOLATED.  ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE SAT NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES.

MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A SFC COOL FRONT
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT HELPING TO INCREASE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
BUT BETTER FORCING LOOKS TO PASS NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE LONG TERM AS A COUPLE NORTHERN
FRONTAL SYSTEMS INTERACT WITH SURGING MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH.

STARTING OFF MONDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
CWFA IN CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN COLORADO MONDAY AFTERNOON. STILL
SEEING SOME CONVECTION OVER OUR WESTERN MOUNTAINS FROM THE BACK
SIDE OF THE FRONT HANGING UP NEAR CARBON COUNTY. NORTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE MONDAY WITH PRETTY HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AT 850MBS. WOULD EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. CONTINUED UNDERCUTTING HIGHS
FOR MONDAY...PROBABLY STILL TOO HIGH IF THE STRATUS DOES PERSIST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS IT INTERACTS
WITH THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. HEAVY
RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. STEERING WINDS ARE WEAK AND
PWATS CLIMB TO CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES. ANOTHER SYSTEM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINANTLY. USED LATEST HRRR FORECAST FOR TIMING
ON CONVECTION AT KCYS AND KLAR THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR SUGGESTING THE
POSSIBILITY OF LATE NIGHT CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN THAT COULD IMPACT
KBFF AND KSNY OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WENT WITH VCTS WORDING IN THEIR
TAFS. WILL TRY TO NARROW DOWN TIMING AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A RATHER MOIST PATTERN EXPECTED. A COOL FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS SUNDAY BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MILD TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY THEN WARMER AGAIN
BY MIDWEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RE




000
FXUS63 KUNR 032014
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
214 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A 1016MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS RESULTED IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS OFF OF THE BLACK HILLS. IN ADDITION TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE BLACK HILLS...MODELS INDICATE
CONVECTION FIRING OFF THE BIGHORNS AND HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF
CAMPBELL AND WESTON COUNTIES. NONE OF THE CONVECTION TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

TONIGHT...THE LLJ STRENGTHENS OVER PART OF THE CWA AND MODELS INDICATE
SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND 6Z. ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT
IS RATHER WEAK...BUT HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS.

FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...MOST OF CWA WILL BE IN A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD SURFACE LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY
WEAK...IF ANY...FORCING ALOFT AND ONLY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE STORM CHANCES WILL BE VERY LIMITED
ACROSS THE CWA...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR
THE BLACK HILLS WHERE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COULD HELP INITIATE A
STORM OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS...MODEL
GUIDANCE HINTS AT ISOLATED CONVECTION FIRING OFF ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS THE CAP SLOWLY ERODES BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH CAPE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG...AND
0-6KM SHEAR APPROACHING 40 KNOTS...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM
COULD BE SEVERE. CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA COULD
PERSIST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE LLJ STRENGTHENING AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. EXACT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY THE POST FRONTAL SHORTWAVE. ECMWF IS SLOWER
THAN THE NAM...WITH THE GFS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. IN
GENERAL...WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON TIMING...BUT AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS IN A BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
HAVE THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT
HERE EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT
TIMES...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK
HILLS AREA. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS63 KUNR 032014
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
214 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A 1016MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS RESULTED IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS OFF OF THE BLACK HILLS. IN ADDITION TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE BLACK HILLS...MODELS INDICATE
CONVECTION FIRING OFF THE BIGHORNS AND HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF
CAMPBELL AND WESTON COUNTIES. NONE OF THE CONVECTION TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

TONIGHT...THE LLJ STRENGTHENS OVER PART OF THE CWA AND MODELS INDICATE
SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND 6Z. ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT
IS RATHER WEAK...BUT HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS.

FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...MOST OF CWA WILL BE IN A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD SURFACE LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY
WEAK...IF ANY...FORCING ALOFT AND ONLY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE STORM CHANCES WILL BE VERY LIMITED
ACROSS THE CWA...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR
THE BLACK HILLS WHERE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COULD HELP INITIATE A
STORM OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS...MODEL
GUIDANCE HINTS AT ISOLATED CONVECTION FIRING OFF ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS THE CAP SLOWLY ERODES BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH CAPE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG...AND
0-6KM SHEAR APPROACHING 40 KNOTS...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM
COULD BE SEVERE. CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA COULD
PERSIST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE LLJ STRENGTHENING AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. EXACT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY THE POST FRONTAL SHORTWAVE. ECMWF IS SLOWER
THAN THE NAM...WITH THE GFS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. IN
GENERAL...WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON TIMING...BUT AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS IN A BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
HAVE THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT
HERE EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT
TIMES...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK
HILLS AREA. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KUNR 032014
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
214 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A 1016MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS RESULTED IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS OFF OF THE BLACK HILLS. IN ADDITION TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE BLACK HILLS...MODELS INDICATE
CONVECTION FIRING OFF THE BIGHORNS AND HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF
CAMPBELL AND WESTON COUNTIES. NONE OF THE CONVECTION TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

TONIGHT...THE LLJ STRENGTHENS OVER PART OF THE CWA AND MODELS INDICATE
SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND 6Z. ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT
IS RATHER WEAK...BUT HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS.

FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...MOST OF CWA WILL BE IN A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD SURFACE LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY
WEAK...IF ANY...FORCING ALOFT AND ONLY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE STORM CHANCES WILL BE VERY LIMITED
ACROSS THE CWA...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR
THE BLACK HILLS WHERE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COULD HELP INITIATE A
STORM OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS...MODEL
GUIDANCE HINTS AT ISOLATED CONVECTION FIRING OFF ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS THE CAP SLOWLY ERODES BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH CAPE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG...AND
0-6KM SHEAR APPROACHING 40 KNOTS...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM
COULD BE SEVERE. CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA COULD
PERSIST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE LLJ STRENGTHENING AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. EXACT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY THE POST FRONTAL SHORTWAVE. ECMWF IS SLOWER
THAN THE NAM...WITH THE GFS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. IN
GENERAL...WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON TIMING...BUT AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS IN A BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
HAVE THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT
HERE EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT
TIMES...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK
HILLS AREA. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS63 KUNR 032014
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
214 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A 1016MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS RESULTED IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS OFF OF THE BLACK HILLS. IN ADDITION TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE BLACK HILLS...MODELS INDICATE
CONVECTION FIRING OFF THE BIGHORNS AND HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF
CAMPBELL AND WESTON COUNTIES. NONE OF THE CONVECTION TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

TONIGHT...THE LLJ STRENGTHENS OVER PART OF THE CWA AND MODELS INDICATE
SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND 6Z. ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT
IS RATHER WEAK...BUT HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS.

FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...MOST OF CWA WILL BE IN A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD SURFACE LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY
WEAK...IF ANY...FORCING ALOFT AND ONLY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE STORM CHANCES WILL BE VERY LIMITED
ACROSS THE CWA...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR
THE BLACK HILLS WHERE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COULD HELP INITIATE A
STORM OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS...MODEL
GUIDANCE HINTS AT ISOLATED CONVECTION FIRING OFF ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS THE CAP SLOWLY ERODES BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH CAPE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG...AND
0-6KM SHEAR APPROACHING 40 KNOTS...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM
COULD BE SEVERE. CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA COULD
PERSIST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE LLJ STRENGTHENING AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. EXACT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY THE POST FRONTAL SHORTWAVE. ECMWF IS SLOWER
THAN THE NAM...WITH THE GFS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. IN
GENERAL...WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON TIMING...BUT AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS IN A BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
HAVE THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT
HERE EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT
TIMES...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK
HILLS AREA. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS65 KRIW 031917
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
117 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN RESULTING IN NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW...WITH COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR OVER THE NORTH AND
EAST...AND DRIER AND WARMER AIR OVER THE SOUTHWEST. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND OVER THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH A FEW BECOMING STRONG ENOUGH TO MOVE OFF THE
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE MORE STABLE AIR IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE WIND RIVER AND BIGHORN BASINS AND THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES. CLEARING WILL BE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
WARMER AND DRIER ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND...WITH LESS
COVERAGE...OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. FEWER STORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVERALL AND ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

BEGINNING OF FCST...QUITE A PROTECTIVE CAP IN PLACE WITH FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ABLE TO INITIATE EXCEPT OVR THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN THE
AREA AND PERHAPS OVR A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SRN FA AND ITS ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING WARM FRONT INTO SRN NATRONA
COUNTY. RELATIVELY LOW CAPE AND SHEAR... 300 - 700 J/KG AND 20 KTS
OR LESS RESPECTIVELY...WILL YIELD ONLY ISOLATED MODEST THUNDER IN
THESE AREAS WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MOST LIKELY CULPRIT.

SUNDAY...A COUPLE OF UPR LVL WAVES EMBEDDED IN BOTH THE THE SRN FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH AND THE NRN FLOW WILL COME TOGETHER AND PROVIDE EXTRA
MOISTURE AND LIFT ABOVE A DIVING CANADIAN COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
S ACROSS THE FA DURING THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE SFC LOW THAT WAS
DEVELOPING OVR SRN WY WILL BE INSPIRED TO JUMP EWD...SPINNING UP
INTO A LEE CYCLONE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF SERN WY AND NERN CO.
MUCH COOLER WITH CHCS FOR PRECIP...IN THE FORM OF STRONG SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...INCREASING OVR THE ENTIRE FA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. DYNAMICS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONG SKINNY CAPE WITH
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...PWS AT OR IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH FOR MOST
ALL LOCATIONS...AND DEEP SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS PLUS/MINUS. MOST STORMS
E OF THE DIVIDE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO ROTATE AND MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES FOR A WHILE. ALTHOUGH STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD RUN 20 TO 30
KTS...EXPECT EMBEDDED CORES WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND SMALL
HAIL...POSSIBLY LOTS OF IT...BRINGING A POSSIBILITY OF SOME FLASH
FLOODING. THE LOCATION OF THE DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE WILL PIN THE
AREA FOR STRONGEST STORM POTENTIAL NEARING SEVERE ACROSS NATRONA
COUNTY...PARTICULARLY THE ERN/SRN HALF...WHERE ANYTHING WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THRU SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH VERY MOIST N TO NERLY LOW TO MID LVL FLOW WRAPPING
AROUND THE CYCLONE...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MID LVL
FRONTOGENESIS MOVING OVR THE ERN ZONES IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER
EMBEDDED UPR WAVE...AN AREA OF SOME CONCERN WILL BE THE AREA ERN
SLOPES OF THE BIGHORNS...ESPECIALLY THE SRN PORTION FROM RED WALL TO
KAYCEE AND POINTS SWD TO THE RATTLESNAKE RANGE WHERE LL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY MORNING...HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY FRONT THAT LOOKS TO HEADED THRU THE CNTRL AND SRN FA. SOME
MODEST SHRA/TSRA REDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR OVR THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS
RINGING THE BASINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE MOST LIKELY
AREA FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL OCCUR OVR THE SRN FA
ALONG AND BEHIND A NOW SLOWING FRONT.

THRU THE END OF THE FCST...SEASONALLY COOL WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND
AND CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL ACCOMPANY AN EQUALLY SLOW
TRANSITION FROM NW FLOW TO...FLAT...AND ON TO MODEST RIDGING BY THE
END OF THE FCST. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN LR MDLS AREA PLENTY BUT NOT
HUGELY IMPACTFUL. BLEND OF CURRENT TIMING FOR THE UPR LVL`S
EVOLUTION AND POSSIBLE EJECTING EMBEDDED WAVES PUTS A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVE PRECIP E OF THE DIVIDE TUE...WEST OF THE
DIVIDE WED AND THU...PUSHING NWD BY FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS FOR
THIS PORTION OF THE FCST LOOK TO FIND THEMSELVES OVR NATRONA TO ERN
FREMONT COUNTY LATER ON TUESDAY...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH SE ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING
THIS EVENING. ISOLD-WDLY SCT -TSRAGS MAINLY VCNTY AND NORTH OF A
KJAC- KLND-KCPR LINE THROUGH 06Z...WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STORMS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR THE AREA OR
DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET...WITH SKC-FEW FL150-200 PREVAILING AFTER
06Z SATURDAY. CLEARING WILL BE WIDESPREAD AFTER 06Z. THE AIR MASS
WILL BE DRIER AND MORE STABLE ON SATURDAY. ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FROM 19Z - 00Z SUNDAY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND OVER THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN RESULTING IN NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW...WITH COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR OVER THE NORTH AND
EAST...AND DRIER AND WARMER AIR OVER THE SOUTHWEST. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND OVER THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH A FEW BECOMING STRONG ENOUGH TO MOVE OFF THE
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE MORE STABLE AIR IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE WIND RIVER AND BIGHORN BASINS AND THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES. CLEARING WILL BE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
WARMER AND DRIER ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND...WITH LESS
COVERAGE...OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. FEWER STORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVERALL AND ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...BRAUN
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER




000
FXUS65 KRIW 031917
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
117 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN RESULTING IN NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW...WITH COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR OVER THE NORTH AND
EAST...AND DRIER AND WARMER AIR OVER THE SOUTHWEST. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND OVER THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH A FEW BECOMING STRONG ENOUGH TO MOVE OFF THE
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE MORE STABLE AIR IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE WIND RIVER AND BIGHORN BASINS AND THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES. CLEARING WILL BE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
WARMER AND DRIER ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND...WITH LESS
COVERAGE...OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. FEWER STORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVERALL AND ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

BEGINNING OF FCST...QUITE A PROTECTIVE CAP IN PLACE WITH FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ABLE TO INITIATE EXCEPT OVR THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN THE
AREA AND PERHAPS OVR A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SRN FA AND ITS ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING WARM FRONT INTO SRN NATRONA
COUNTY. RELATIVELY LOW CAPE AND SHEAR... 300 - 700 J/KG AND 20 KTS
OR LESS RESPECTIVELY...WILL YIELD ONLY ISOLATED MODEST THUNDER IN
THESE AREAS WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MOST LIKELY CULPRIT.

SUNDAY...A COUPLE OF UPR LVL WAVES EMBEDDED IN BOTH THE THE SRN FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH AND THE NRN FLOW WILL COME TOGETHER AND PROVIDE EXTRA
MOISTURE AND LIFT ABOVE A DIVING CANADIAN COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
S ACROSS THE FA DURING THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE SFC LOW THAT WAS
DEVELOPING OVR SRN WY WILL BE INSPIRED TO JUMP EWD...SPINNING UP
INTO A LEE CYCLONE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF SERN WY AND NERN CO.
MUCH COOLER WITH CHCS FOR PRECIP...IN THE FORM OF STRONG SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...INCREASING OVR THE ENTIRE FA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. DYNAMICS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONG SKINNY CAPE WITH
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...PWS AT OR IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH FOR MOST
ALL LOCATIONS...AND DEEP SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS PLUS/MINUS. MOST STORMS
E OF THE DIVIDE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO ROTATE AND MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES FOR A WHILE. ALTHOUGH STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD RUN 20 TO 30
KTS...EXPECT EMBEDDED CORES WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND SMALL
HAIL...POSSIBLY LOTS OF IT...BRINGING A POSSIBILITY OF SOME FLASH
FLOODING. THE LOCATION OF THE DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE WILL PIN THE
AREA FOR STRONGEST STORM POTENTIAL NEARING SEVERE ACROSS NATRONA
COUNTY...PARTICULARLY THE ERN/SRN HALF...WHERE ANYTHING WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THRU SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH VERY MOIST N TO NERLY LOW TO MID LVL FLOW WRAPPING
AROUND THE CYCLONE...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MID LVL
FRONTOGENESIS MOVING OVR THE ERN ZONES IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER
EMBEDDED UPR WAVE...AN AREA OF SOME CONCERN WILL BE THE AREA ERN
SLOPES OF THE BIGHORNS...ESPECIALLY THE SRN PORTION FROM RED WALL TO
KAYCEE AND POINTS SWD TO THE RATTLESNAKE RANGE WHERE LL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY MORNING...HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY FRONT THAT LOOKS TO HEADED THRU THE CNTRL AND SRN FA. SOME
MODEST SHRA/TSRA REDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR OVR THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS
RINGING THE BASINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE MOST LIKELY
AREA FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL OCCUR OVR THE SRN FA
ALONG AND BEHIND A NOW SLOWING FRONT.

THRU THE END OF THE FCST...SEASONALLY COOL WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND
AND CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL ACCOMPANY AN EQUALLY SLOW
TRANSITION FROM NW FLOW TO...FLAT...AND ON TO MODEST RIDGING BY THE
END OF THE FCST. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN LR MDLS AREA PLENTY BUT NOT
HUGELY IMPACTFUL. BLEND OF CURRENT TIMING FOR THE UPR LVL`S
EVOLUTION AND POSSIBLE EJECTING EMBEDDED WAVES PUTS A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVE PRECIP E OF THE DIVIDE TUE...WEST OF THE
DIVIDE WED AND THU...PUSHING NWD BY FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS FOR
THIS PORTION OF THE FCST LOOK TO FIND THEMSELVES OVR NATRONA TO ERN
FREMONT COUNTY LATER ON TUESDAY...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH SE ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING
THIS EVENING. ISOLD-WDLY SCT -TSRAGS MAINLY VCNTY AND NORTH OF A
KJAC- KLND-KCPR LINE THROUGH 06Z...WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STORMS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR THE AREA OR
DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET...WITH SKC-FEW FL150-200 PREVAILING AFTER
06Z SATURDAY. CLEARING WILL BE WIDESPREAD AFTER 06Z. THE AIR MASS
WILL BE DRIER AND MORE STABLE ON SATURDAY. ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FROM 19Z - 00Z SUNDAY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND OVER THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN RESULTING IN NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW...WITH COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR OVER THE NORTH AND
EAST...AND DRIER AND WARMER AIR OVER THE SOUTHWEST. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND OVER THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH A FEW BECOMING STRONG ENOUGH TO MOVE OFF THE
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE MORE STABLE AIR IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE WIND RIVER AND BIGHORN BASINS AND THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES. CLEARING WILL BE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
WARMER AND DRIER ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND...WITH LESS
COVERAGE...OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. FEWER STORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVERALL AND ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...BRAUN
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER




000
FXUS65 KRIW 031917
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
117 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN RESULTING IN NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW...WITH COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR OVER THE NORTH AND
EAST...AND DRIER AND WARMER AIR OVER THE SOUTHWEST. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND OVER THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH A FEW BECOMING STRONG ENOUGH TO MOVE OFF THE
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE MORE STABLE AIR IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE WIND RIVER AND BIGHORN BASINS AND THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES. CLEARING WILL BE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
WARMER AND DRIER ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND...WITH LESS
COVERAGE...OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. FEWER STORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVERALL AND ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

BEGINNING OF FCST...QUITE A PROTECTIVE CAP IN PLACE WITH FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ABLE TO INITIATE EXCEPT OVR THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN THE
AREA AND PERHAPS OVR A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SRN FA AND ITS ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING WARM FRONT INTO SRN NATRONA
COUNTY. RELATIVELY LOW CAPE AND SHEAR... 300 - 700 J/KG AND 20 KTS
OR LESS RESPECTIVELY...WILL YIELD ONLY ISOLATED MODEST THUNDER IN
THESE AREAS WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MOST LIKELY CULPRIT.

SUNDAY...A COUPLE OF UPR LVL WAVES EMBEDDED IN BOTH THE THE SRN FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH AND THE NRN FLOW WILL COME TOGETHER AND PROVIDE EXTRA
MOISTURE AND LIFT ABOVE A DIVING CANADIAN COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
S ACROSS THE FA DURING THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE SFC LOW THAT WAS
DEVELOPING OVR SRN WY WILL BE INSPIRED TO JUMP EWD...SPINNING UP
INTO A LEE CYCLONE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF SERN WY AND NERN CO.
MUCH COOLER WITH CHCS FOR PRECIP...IN THE FORM OF STRONG SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...INCREASING OVR THE ENTIRE FA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. DYNAMICS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONG SKINNY CAPE WITH
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...PWS AT OR IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH FOR MOST
ALL LOCATIONS...AND DEEP SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS PLUS/MINUS. MOST STORMS
E OF THE DIVIDE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO ROTATE AND MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES FOR A WHILE. ALTHOUGH STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD RUN 20 TO 30
KTS...EXPECT EMBEDDED CORES WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND SMALL
HAIL...POSSIBLY LOTS OF IT...BRINGING A POSSIBILITY OF SOME FLASH
FLOODING. THE LOCATION OF THE DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE WILL PIN THE
AREA FOR STRONGEST STORM POTENTIAL NEARING SEVERE ACROSS NATRONA
COUNTY...PARTICULARLY THE ERN/SRN HALF...WHERE ANYTHING WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THRU SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH VERY MOIST N TO NERLY LOW TO MID LVL FLOW WRAPPING
AROUND THE CYCLONE...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MID LVL
FRONTOGENESIS MOVING OVR THE ERN ZONES IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER
EMBEDDED UPR WAVE...AN AREA OF SOME CONCERN WILL BE THE AREA ERN
SLOPES OF THE BIGHORNS...ESPECIALLY THE SRN PORTION FROM RED WALL TO
KAYCEE AND POINTS SWD TO THE RATTLESNAKE RANGE WHERE LL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY MORNING...HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY FRONT THAT LOOKS TO HEADED THRU THE CNTRL AND SRN FA. SOME
MODEST SHRA/TSRA REDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR OVR THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS
RINGING THE BASINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE MOST LIKELY
AREA FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL OCCUR OVR THE SRN FA
ALONG AND BEHIND A NOW SLOWING FRONT.

THRU THE END OF THE FCST...SEASONALLY COOL WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND
AND CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL ACCOMPANY AN EQUALLY SLOW
TRANSITION FROM NW FLOW TO...FLAT...AND ON TO MODEST RIDGING BY THE
END OF THE FCST. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN LR MDLS AREA PLENTY BUT NOT
HUGELY IMPACTFUL. BLEND OF CURRENT TIMING FOR THE UPR LVL`S
EVOLUTION AND POSSIBLE EJECTING EMBEDDED WAVES PUTS A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVE PRECIP E OF THE DIVIDE TUE...WEST OF THE
DIVIDE WED AND THU...PUSHING NWD BY FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS FOR
THIS PORTION OF THE FCST LOOK TO FIND THEMSELVES OVR NATRONA TO ERN
FREMONT COUNTY LATER ON TUESDAY...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH SE ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING
THIS EVENING. ISOLD-WDLY SCT -TSRAGS MAINLY VCNTY AND NORTH OF A
KJAC- KLND-KCPR LINE THROUGH 06Z...WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STORMS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR THE AREA OR
DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET...WITH SKC-FEW FL150-200 PREVAILING AFTER
06Z SATURDAY. CLEARING WILL BE WIDESPREAD AFTER 06Z. THE AIR MASS
WILL BE DRIER AND MORE STABLE ON SATURDAY. ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FROM 19Z - 00Z SUNDAY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND OVER THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN RESULTING IN NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW...WITH COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR OVER THE NORTH AND
EAST...AND DRIER AND WARMER AIR OVER THE SOUTHWEST. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND OVER THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH A FEW BECOMING STRONG ENOUGH TO MOVE OFF THE
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE MORE STABLE AIR IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE WIND RIVER AND BIGHORN BASINS AND THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES. CLEARING WILL BE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
WARMER AND DRIER ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND...WITH LESS
COVERAGE...OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. FEWER STORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVERALL AND ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...BRAUN
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER




000
FXUS65 KRIW 031917
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
117 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN RESULTING IN NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW...WITH COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR OVER THE NORTH AND
EAST...AND DRIER AND WARMER AIR OVER THE SOUTHWEST. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND OVER THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH A FEW BECOMING STRONG ENOUGH TO MOVE OFF THE
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE MORE STABLE AIR IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE WIND RIVER AND BIGHORN BASINS AND THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES. CLEARING WILL BE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
WARMER AND DRIER ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND...WITH LESS
COVERAGE...OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. FEWER STORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVERALL AND ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

BEGINNING OF FCST...QUITE A PROTECTIVE CAP IN PLACE WITH FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ABLE TO INITIATE EXCEPT OVR THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN THE
AREA AND PERHAPS OVR A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SRN FA AND ITS ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING WARM FRONT INTO SRN NATRONA
COUNTY. RELATIVELY LOW CAPE AND SHEAR... 300 - 700 J/KG AND 20 KTS
OR LESS RESPECTIVELY...WILL YIELD ONLY ISOLATED MODEST THUNDER IN
THESE AREAS WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MOST LIKELY CULPRIT.

SUNDAY...A COUPLE OF UPR LVL WAVES EMBEDDED IN BOTH THE THE SRN FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH AND THE NRN FLOW WILL COME TOGETHER AND PROVIDE EXTRA
MOISTURE AND LIFT ABOVE A DIVING CANADIAN COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
S ACROSS THE FA DURING THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE SFC LOW THAT WAS
DEVELOPING OVR SRN WY WILL BE INSPIRED TO JUMP EWD...SPINNING UP
INTO A LEE CYCLONE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF SERN WY AND NERN CO.
MUCH COOLER WITH CHCS FOR PRECIP...IN THE FORM OF STRONG SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...INCREASING OVR THE ENTIRE FA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. DYNAMICS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONG SKINNY CAPE WITH
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...PWS AT OR IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH FOR MOST
ALL LOCATIONS...AND DEEP SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS PLUS/MINUS. MOST STORMS
E OF THE DIVIDE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO ROTATE AND MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES FOR A WHILE. ALTHOUGH STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD RUN 20 TO 30
KTS...EXPECT EMBEDDED CORES WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND SMALL
HAIL...POSSIBLY LOTS OF IT...BRINGING A POSSIBILITY OF SOME FLASH
FLOODING. THE LOCATION OF THE DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE WILL PIN THE
AREA FOR STRONGEST STORM POTENTIAL NEARING SEVERE ACROSS NATRONA
COUNTY...PARTICULARLY THE ERN/SRN HALF...WHERE ANYTHING WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THRU SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH VERY MOIST N TO NERLY LOW TO MID LVL FLOW WRAPPING
AROUND THE CYCLONE...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MID LVL
FRONTOGENESIS MOVING OVR THE ERN ZONES IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER
EMBEDDED UPR WAVE...AN AREA OF SOME CONCERN WILL BE THE AREA ERN
SLOPES OF THE BIGHORNS...ESPECIALLY THE SRN PORTION FROM RED WALL TO
KAYCEE AND POINTS SWD TO THE RATTLESNAKE RANGE WHERE LL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY MORNING...HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY FRONT THAT LOOKS TO HEADED THRU THE CNTRL AND SRN FA. SOME
MODEST SHRA/TSRA REDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR OVR THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS
RINGING THE BASINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE MOST LIKELY
AREA FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL OCCUR OVR THE SRN FA
ALONG AND BEHIND A NOW SLOWING FRONT.

THRU THE END OF THE FCST...SEASONALLY COOL WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND
AND CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL ACCOMPANY AN EQUALLY SLOW
TRANSITION FROM NW FLOW TO...FLAT...AND ON TO MODEST RIDGING BY THE
END OF THE FCST. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN LR MDLS AREA PLENTY BUT NOT
HUGELY IMPACTFUL. BLEND OF CURRENT TIMING FOR THE UPR LVL`S
EVOLUTION AND POSSIBLE EJECTING EMBEDDED WAVES PUTS A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVE PRECIP E OF THE DIVIDE TUE...WEST OF THE
DIVIDE WED AND THU...PUSHING NWD BY FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS FOR
THIS PORTION OF THE FCST LOOK TO FIND THEMSELVES OVR NATRONA TO ERN
FREMONT COUNTY LATER ON TUESDAY...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH SE ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING
THIS EVENING. ISOLD-WDLY SCT -TSRAGS MAINLY VCNTY AND NORTH OF A
KJAC- KLND-KCPR LINE THROUGH 06Z...WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STORMS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR THE AREA OR
DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET...WITH SKC-FEW FL150-200 PREVAILING AFTER
06Z SATURDAY. CLEARING WILL BE WIDESPREAD AFTER 06Z. THE AIR MASS
WILL BE DRIER AND MORE STABLE ON SATURDAY. ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FROM 19Z - 00Z SUNDAY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND OVER THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN RESULTING IN NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW...WITH COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR OVER THE NORTH AND
EAST...AND DRIER AND WARMER AIR OVER THE SOUTHWEST. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND OVER THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH A FEW BECOMING STRONG ENOUGH TO MOVE OFF THE
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE MORE STABLE AIR IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE WIND RIVER AND BIGHORN BASINS AND THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES. CLEARING WILL BE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
WARMER AND DRIER ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND...WITH LESS
COVERAGE...OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. FEWER STORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVERALL AND ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...BRAUN
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER




000
FXUS65 KRIW 031733
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1133 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

AS FOR THE WEATHER TODAY AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IT
LOOKS LIKE A CARBON COPY OF THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. WAIT THIS IS
2015...MAYBE I SHOULD HAVE SAID PHOTOCOPY OR PDF. ANYWAY...WITH THE
RIDGE CONTINUING TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA LOOK FOR ANOTHER VERY
WARM DAY ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. AND...LIKE IN PREVIOUS
DAYS...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...THIS ONE MOVING IN FROM NORTHERN
IDAHO...WILL BRUSH BY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO THE AREA TO BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATION THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...A FEW MAY MOVE OFF
OF THE MOUNTAINS BUT WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW MOST AREAS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

AS WE HEAD INTO INDEPENDENCE DAY...IT STILL LOOKS TO BE HOT AS A
FIRECRACKER ACROSS THE AREA AS THE RIDGE REACHES IT`S PEAK STRENGTH
ACROSS THE COWBOY STATE. THIS MEANS THAT IT WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS RISING INTO THE 90S. ALSO...WITH
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...THIS WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF THE
NATURES FIREWORKS IN THE FORM OF THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WITH THE HIGH ELEVATION HEAT
SOURCE. HOWEVER...GET READY FOR A BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER AS WE
HEAD INTO SUNDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE DURING
SUNDAY AND USHER IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE NEW GFS MOS
ACTUALLY LOWERS HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ACROSS MANY OF THE
LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS. THIS MAY BE OVERDONE...BUT MANY AREAS
COULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO OVER 1 INCH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CLIMB AS WELL. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE QUESTION OF HOW STRONG THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE. A LOT DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY THERE
IS. AND NOW BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE FAIRLY LIMITED INSTABILITY
WITH LIFTED INDICES NEAR ZERO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY POSITIVE AND LIMITED
CAPE. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. BUT THE
BIG STORY THAT DAY WILL BE FOR MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THERE
HAVE BEEN SEEN FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NW FLOW ALOFT FOR MONDAY. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ACTIVITY EAST OF THE
DIVIDE LOOKS TO BE MONDAY EVENING INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY
THE LONG RANGE MODELS HINT AT A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WOULD BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM
IN A NW FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION WED AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THE GFS MODEL IS SLOWER WITH TIMING AND THE ECMWF MODEL IS
FASTER. AGAIN THIS WOULD BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO THE REGION WED PM AND NIGHT. THURSDAY ALSO LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
FORECAST. NEXT FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR STORMS. TEMPS WILL BE MILD TO WARM MONDAY...THEN WARMER TUE. WED
WILL BE WARM AS WELL BUT HAVE BROUGHT SLIGHT COOLING INTO THE NORTH
AS THAT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES. 700MB TEMPS REBOUND QUICKLY NEXT
THURS AND FRI WHICH BRINGS WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH SE ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING
TODAY. SOME ISOLD -SHRA WILL MOVE INTO NW WYOMING 18Z - 20Z THEN
EXPECT ISOLD-WDLY SCT -TSRAGS MAINLY VCNTY AND NORTH OF A KJAC-
KLND-KCPR LINE IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STORMS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR THE AREA OR
DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET...WITH SKC-FEW FL150-200 PREVAILING AFTER
06Z SATURDAY.

.FIRE WEATHER...

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN...LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA.
MOST OF THE BASINS HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE.  OVER AND NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER OVER THE NORTH AND EAST
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST. A MAJOR CHANGE WILL
MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS.&&

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS



000
FXUS65 KRIW 031733
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1133 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

AS FOR THE WEATHER TODAY AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IT
LOOKS LIKE A CARBON COPY OF THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. WAIT THIS IS
2015...MAYBE I SHOULD HAVE SAID PHOTOCOPY OR PDF. ANYWAY...WITH THE
RIDGE CONTINUING TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA LOOK FOR ANOTHER VERY
WARM DAY ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. AND...LIKE IN PREVIOUS
DAYS...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...THIS ONE MOVING IN FROM NORTHERN
IDAHO...WILL BRUSH BY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO THE AREA TO BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATION THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...A FEW MAY MOVE OFF
OF THE MOUNTAINS BUT WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW MOST AREAS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

AS WE HEAD INTO INDEPENDENCE DAY...IT STILL LOOKS TO BE HOT AS A
FIRECRACKER ACROSS THE AREA AS THE RIDGE REACHES IT`S PEAK STRENGTH
ACROSS THE COWBOY STATE. THIS MEANS THAT IT WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS RISING INTO THE 90S. ALSO...WITH
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...THIS WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF THE
NATURES FIREWORKS IN THE FORM OF THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WITH THE HIGH ELEVATION HEAT
SOURCE. HOWEVER...GET READY FOR A BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER AS WE
HEAD INTO SUNDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE DURING
SUNDAY AND USHER IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE NEW GFS MOS
ACTUALLY LOWERS HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ACROSS MANY OF THE
LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS. THIS MAY BE OVERDONE...BUT MANY AREAS
COULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO OVER 1 INCH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CLIMB AS WELL. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE QUESTION OF HOW STRONG THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE. A LOT DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY THERE
IS. AND NOW BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE FAIRLY LIMITED INSTABILITY
WITH LIFTED INDICES NEAR ZERO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY POSITIVE AND LIMITED
CAPE. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. BUT THE
BIG STORY THAT DAY WILL BE FOR MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THERE
HAVE BEEN SEEN FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NW FLOW ALOFT FOR MONDAY. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ACTIVITY EAST OF THE
DIVIDE LOOKS TO BE MONDAY EVENING INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY
THE LONG RANGE MODELS HINT AT A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WOULD BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM
IN A NW FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION WED AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THE GFS MODEL IS SLOWER WITH TIMING AND THE ECMWF MODEL IS
FASTER. AGAIN THIS WOULD BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO THE REGION WED PM AND NIGHT. THURSDAY ALSO LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
FORECAST. NEXT FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR STORMS. TEMPS WILL BE MILD TO WARM MONDAY...THEN WARMER TUE. WED
WILL BE WARM AS WELL BUT HAVE BROUGHT SLIGHT COOLING INTO THE NORTH
AS THAT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES. 700MB TEMPS REBOUND QUICKLY NEXT
THURS AND FRI WHICH BRINGS WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH SE ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING
TODAY. SOME ISOLD -SHRA WILL MOVE INTO NW WYOMING 18Z - 20Z THEN
EXPECT ISOLD-WDLY SCT -TSRAGS MAINLY VCNTY AND NORTH OF A KJAC-
KLND-KCPR LINE IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STORMS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR THE AREA OR
DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET...WITH SKC-FEW FL150-200 PREVAILING AFTER
06Z SATURDAY.

.FIRE WEATHER...

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN...LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA.
MOST OF THE BASINS HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE.  OVER AND NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER OVER THE NORTH AND EAST
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST. A MAJOR CHANGE WILL
MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS.&&

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS




000
FXUS65 KRIW 031733
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1133 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

AS FOR THE WEATHER TODAY AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IT
LOOKS LIKE A CARBON COPY OF THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. WAIT THIS IS
2015...MAYBE I SHOULD HAVE SAID PHOTOCOPY OR PDF. ANYWAY...WITH THE
RIDGE CONTINUING TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA LOOK FOR ANOTHER VERY
WARM DAY ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. AND...LIKE IN PREVIOUS
DAYS...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...THIS ONE MOVING IN FROM NORTHERN
IDAHO...WILL BRUSH BY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO THE AREA TO BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATION THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...A FEW MAY MOVE OFF
OF THE MOUNTAINS BUT WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW MOST AREAS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

AS WE HEAD INTO INDEPENDENCE DAY...IT STILL LOOKS TO BE HOT AS A
FIRECRACKER ACROSS THE AREA AS THE RIDGE REACHES IT`S PEAK STRENGTH
ACROSS THE COWBOY STATE. THIS MEANS THAT IT WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS RISING INTO THE 90S. ALSO...WITH
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...THIS WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF THE
NATURES FIREWORKS IN THE FORM OF THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WITH THE HIGH ELEVATION HEAT
SOURCE. HOWEVER...GET READY FOR A BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER AS WE
HEAD INTO SUNDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE DURING
SUNDAY AND USHER IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE NEW GFS MOS
ACTUALLY LOWERS HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ACROSS MANY OF THE
LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS. THIS MAY BE OVERDONE...BUT MANY AREAS
COULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO OVER 1 INCH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CLIMB AS WELL. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE QUESTION OF HOW STRONG THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE. A LOT DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY THERE
IS. AND NOW BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE FAIRLY LIMITED INSTABILITY
WITH LIFTED INDICES NEAR ZERO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY POSITIVE AND LIMITED
CAPE. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. BUT THE
BIG STORY THAT DAY WILL BE FOR MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THERE
HAVE BEEN SEEN FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NW FLOW ALOFT FOR MONDAY. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ACTIVITY EAST OF THE
DIVIDE LOOKS TO BE MONDAY EVENING INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY
THE LONG RANGE MODELS HINT AT A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WOULD BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM
IN A NW FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION WED AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THE GFS MODEL IS SLOWER WITH TIMING AND THE ECMWF MODEL IS
FASTER. AGAIN THIS WOULD BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO THE REGION WED PM AND NIGHT. THURSDAY ALSO LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
FORECAST. NEXT FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR STORMS. TEMPS WILL BE MILD TO WARM MONDAY...THEN WARMER TUE. WED
WILL BE WARM AS WELL BUT HAVE BROUGHT SLIGHT COOLING INTO THE NORTH
AS THAT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES. 700MB TEMPS REBOUND QUICKLY NEXT
THURS AND FRI WHICH BRINGS WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH SE ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING
TODAY. SOME ISOLD -SHRA WILL MOVE INTO NW WYOMING 18Z - 20Z THEN
EXPECT ISOLD-WDLY SCT -TSRAGS MAINLY VCNTY AND NORTH OF A KJAC-
KLND-KCPR LINE IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STORMS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR THE AREA OR
DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET...WITH SKC-FEW FL150-200 PREVAILING AFTER
06Z SATURDAY.

.FIRE WEATHER...

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN...LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA.
MOST OF THE BASINS HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE.  OVER AND NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER OVER THE NORTH AND EAST
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST. A MAJOR CHANGE WILL
MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS.&&

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS




000
FXUS65 KRIW 031733
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1133 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

AS FOR THE WEATHER TODAY AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IT
LOOKS LIKE A CARBON COPY OF THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. WAIT THIS IS
2015...MAYBE I SHOULD HAVE SAID PHOTOCOPY OR PDF. ANYWAY...WITH THE
RIDGE CONTINUING TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA LOOK FOR ANOTHER VERY
WARM DAY ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. AND...LIKE IN PREVIOUS
DAYS...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...THIS ONE MOVING IN FROM NORTHERN
IDAHO...WILL BRUSH BY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO THE AREA TO BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATION THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...A FEW MAY MOVE OFF
OF THE MOUNTAINS BUT WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW MOST AREAS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

AS WE HEAD INTO INDEPENDENCE DAY...IT STILL LOOKS TO BE HOT AS A
FIRECRACKER ACROSS THE AREA AS THE RIDGE REACHES IT`S PEAK STRENGTH
ACROSS THE COWBOY STATE. THIS MEANS THAT IT WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS RISING INTO THE 90S. ALSO...WITH
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...THIS WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF THE
NATURES FIREWORKS IN THE FORM OF THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WITH THE HIGH ELEVATION HEAT
SOURCE. HOWEVER...GET READY FOR A BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER AS WE
HEAD INTO SUNDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE DURING
SUNDAY AND USHER IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE NEW GFS MOS
ACTUALLY LOWERS HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ACROSS MANY OF THE
LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS. THIS MAY BE OVERDONE...BUT MANY AREAS
COULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO OVER 1 INCH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CLIMB AS WELL. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE QUESTION OF HOW STRONG THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE. A LOT DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY THERE
IS. AND NOW BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE FAIRLY LIMITED INSTABILITY
WITH LIFTED INDICES NEAR ZERO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY POSITIVE AND LIMITED
CAPE. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. BUT THE
BIG STORY THAT DAY WILL BE FOR MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THERE
HAVE BEEN SEEN FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NW FLOW ALOFT FOR MONDAY. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ACTIVITY EAST OF THE
DIVIDE LOOKS TO BE MONDAY EVENING INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY
THE LONG RANGE MODELS HINT AT A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WOULD BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM
IN A NW FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION WED AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THE GFS MODEL IS SLOWER WITH TIMING AND THE ECMWF MODEL IS
FASTER. AGAIN THIS WOULD BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO THE REGION WED PM AND NIGHT. THURSDAY ALSO LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
FORECAST. NEXT FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR STORMS. TEMPS WILL BE MILD TO WARM MONDAY...THEN WARMER TUE. WED
WILL BE WARM AS WELL BUT HAVE BROUGHT SLIGHT COOLING INTO THE NORTH
AS THAT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES. 700MB TEMPS REBOUND QUICKLY NEXT
THURS AND FRI WHICH BRINGS WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH SE ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING
TODAY. SOME ISOLD -SHRA WILL MOVE INTO NW WYOMING 18Z - 20Z THEN
EXPECT ISOLD-WDLY SCT -TSRAGS MAINLY VCNTY AND NORTH OF A KJAC-
KLND-KCPR LINE IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STORMS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR THE AREA OR
DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET...WITH SKC-FEW FL150-200 PREVAILING AFTER
06Z SATURDAY.

.FIRE WEATHER...

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN...LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA.
MOST OF THE BASINS HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE.  OVER AND NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER OVER THE NORTH AND EAST
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST. A MAJOR CHANGE WILL
MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS.&&

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS




000
FXUS65 KRIW 031733
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1133 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

AS FOR THE WEATHER TODAY AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IT
LOOKS LIKE A CARBON COPY OF THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. WAIT THIS IS
2015...MAYBE I SHOULD HAVE SAID PHOTOCOPY OR PDF. ANYWAY...WITH THE
RIDGE CONTINUING TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA LOOK FOR ANOTHER VERY
WARM DAY ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. AND...LIKE IN PREVIOUS
DAYS...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...THIS ONE MOVING IN FROM NORTHERN
IDAHO...WILL BRUSH BY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO THE AREA TO BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATION THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...A FEW MAY MOVE OFF
OF THE MOUNTAINS BUT WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW MOST AREAS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

AS WE HEAD INTO INDEPENDENCE DAY...IT STILL LOOKS TO BE HOT AS A
FIRECRACKER ACROSS THE AREA AS THE RIDGE REACHES IT`S PEAK STRENGTH
ACROSS THE COWBOY STATE. THIS MEANS THAT IT WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS RISING INTO THE 90S. ALSO...WITH
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...THIS WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF THE
NATURES FIREWORKS IN THE FORM OF THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WITH THE HIGH ELEVATION HEAT
SOURCE. HOWEVER...GET READY FOR A BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER AS WE
HEAD INTO SUNDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE DURING
SUNDAY AND USHER IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE NEW GFS MOS
ACTUALLY LOWERS HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ACROSS MANY OF THE
LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS. THIS MAY BE OVERDONE...BUT MANY AREAS
COULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO OVER 1 INCH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CLIMB AS WELL. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE QUESTION OF HOW STRONG THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE. A LOT DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY THERE
IS. AND NOW BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE FAIRLY LIMITED INSTABILITY
WITH LIFTED INDICES NEAR ZERO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY POSITIVE AND LIMITED
CAPE. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. BUT THE
BIG STORY THAT DAY WILL BE FOR MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THERE
HAVE BEEN SEEN FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NW FLOW ALOFT FOR MONDAY. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ACTIVITY EAST OF THE
DIVIDE LOOKS TO BE MONDAY EVENING INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY
THE LONG RANGE MODELS HINT AT A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WOULD BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM
IN A NW FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION WED AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THE GFS MODEL IS SLOWER WITH TIMING AND THE ECMWF MODEL IS
FASTER. AGAIN THIS WOULD BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO THE REGION WED PM AND NIGHT. THURSDAY ALSO LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
FORECAST. NEXT FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR STORMS. TEMPS WILL BE MILD TO WARM MONDAY...THEN WARMER TUE. WED
WILL BE WARM AS WELL BUT HAVE BROUGHT SLIGHT COOLING INTO THE NORTH
AS THAT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES. 700MB TEMPS REBOUND QUICKLY NEXT
THURS AND FRI WHICH BRINGS WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH SE ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING
TODAY. SOME ISOLD -SHRA WILL MOVE INTO NW WYOMING 18Z - 20Z THEN
EXPECT ISOLD-WDLY SCT -TSRAGS MAINLY VCNTY AND NORTH OF A KJAC-
KLND-KCPR LINE IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STORMS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR THE AREA OR
DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET...WITH SKC-FEW FL150-200 PREVAILING AFTER
06Z SATURDAY.

.FIRE WEATHER...

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN...LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA.
MOST OF THE BASINS HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE.  OVER AND NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER OVER THE NORTH AND EAST
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST. A MAJOR CHANGE WILL
MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS.&&

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS




000
FXUS65 KCYS 031719
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1119 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

CURRENT KCYS RADAR LOOP SHOWS CONVECTION LINGERING INTO EARLY
THIS MORNING ONCE AGAIN AS A 75 KNOT JET STREAK ALOFT TRANSLATES
INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING FROM THE NORTH. A PRETTY STRONG CLUSTER IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR FORT LARAMIE AND WHEATLAND...MOVING
SOUTHEAST. BELIEVE THESE ISOLATED CELLS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THEY MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO COLORADO. CAN NOT RULE
OUT MORE CELLS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS
MORNING AS WELL DUE TO ELEVATED CAPE. EXPECT A BRIEF LULL IN THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOMETIME LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH NOON
TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH READINGS IN THE 80S. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW BECOMING STRONG LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. KEPT POP BETWEEN 20 TO 25 PERCENT OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS
FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT COVERAGE INTO TONIGHT. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO JET DYNAMICS ALOFT.

NEXT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S
ONCE AGAIN. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AS
IT HAS SINCE MAY WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY IN THE 50S TO MID 60S.
KEPT POP BETWEEN 10 TO 20 PERCENT FOR NOW DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES...EVEN THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE HIGH CAPE
VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG AND LOWERING CIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA. HOWEVER...ANY TSTORMS MAY BE VERY ISOLATED OR
FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS AND DRIER AIR ALOFT.

ALL MODELS INDICATE AN APPROACHING CANADIAN COLD FRONT DIGGING
SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT IS PRETTY STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO 0C LATE ON SUNDAY
JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
INTERACT WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND AMPLE LOW TO MIDLEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA...PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTORMS
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN
THE LATE MORNING OR AROUND NOON...AND THEN FALL INTO THE 70S
THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASED POP BETWEEN 30 TO 50 PERCENT FOR THE
HIGH VALLEYS AND HIGH PLAINS...WITH VALUES NEAR 70 PERCENT FOR THE
MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL FLATTEN OUT SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A RATHER STRONG NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVES ACROSS MONTANA
AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWARD INTO WYOMING AND NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL
PUSH COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA AND LIKELY PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE AS RAIN COOLED AIR AND LIGHT
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED MONDAY
BY A STABLE LOW LEVEL AIR BUT ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM.

TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TUESDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS
BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY WITH A SURFACE LEE
TROUGH ALONG THE ROCKIES. THIS MEANS THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. COULD EVEN SEE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IMPACT THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH EVEN
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR.

AT THIS TIME NOT SEEING ANY BIG CHANCES IN THE OVER ALL PATTERN
THAT WILL LEAD TO DRIER CONDITIONS. IF ANYTHING LATE NEXT WEEK
COULD BE EVEN WETTER. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY
WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST SHIFTING EAST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINANTLY. USED LATEST HRRR FORECAST FOR TIMING
ON CONVECTION AT KCYS AND KLAR THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR SUGGESTING THE
POSSIBILITY OF LATE NIGHT CONVECTION ONCE AGIAN THAT COULD IMPACT
KBFF AND KSNY OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WENT WITH VCTS WORDING IN THEIR
TAFS. WILL TRY TO NARROW DOWN TIMING AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH NEARLY
DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT...THOUGH BRIEFLY
GUSTY AROUND STORMS. A MONSOON PATTERN MAY SET UP NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...TJT



000
FXUS65 KCYS 031719
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1119 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

CURRENT KCYS RADAR LOOP SHOWS CONVECTION LINGERING INTO EARLY
THIS MORNING ONCE AGAIN AS A 75 KNOT JET STREAK ALOFT TRANSLATES
INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING FROM THE NORTH. A PRETTY STRONG CLUSTER IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR FORT LARAMIE AND WHEATLAND...MOVING
SOUTHEAST. BELIEVE THESE ISOLATED CELLS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THEY MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO COLORADO. CAN NOT RULE
OUT MORE CELLS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS
MORNING AS WELL DUE TO ELEVATED CAPE. EXPECT A BRIEF LULL IN THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOMETIME LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH NOON
TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH READINGS IN THE 80S. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW BECOMING STRONG LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. KEPT POP BETWEEN 20 TO 25 PERCENT OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS
FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT COVERAGE INTO TONIGHT. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO JET DYNAMICS ALOFT.

NEXT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S
ONCE AGAIN. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AS
IT HAS SINCE MAY WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY IN THE 50S TO MID 60S.
KEPT POP BETWEEN 10 TO 20 PERCENT FOR NOW DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES...EVEN THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE HIGH CAPE
VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG AND LOWERING CIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA. HOWEVER...ANY TSTORMS MAY BE VERY ISOLATED OR
FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS AND DRIER AIR ALOFT.

ALL MODELS INDICATE AN APPROACHING CANADIAN COLD FRONT DIGGING
SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT IS PRETTY STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO 0C LATE ON SUNDAY
JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
INTERACT WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND AMPLE LOW TO MIDLEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA...PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTORMS
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN
THE LATE MORNING OR AROUND NOON...AND THEN FALL INTO THE 70S
THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASED POP BETWEEN 30 TO 50 PERCENT FOR THE
HIGH VALLEYS AND HIGH PLAINS...WITH VALUES NEAR 70 PERCENT FOR THE
MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL FLATTEN OUT SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A RATHER STRONG NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVES ACROSS MONTANA
AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWARD INTO WYOMING AND NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL
PUSH COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA AND LIKELY PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE AS RAIN COOLED AIR AND LIGHT
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED MONDAY
BY A STABLE LOW LEVEL AIR BUT ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM.

TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TUESDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS
BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY WITH A SURFACE LEE
TROUGH ALONG THE ROCKIES. THIS MEANS THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. COULD EVEN SEE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IMPACT THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH EVEN
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR.

AT THIS TIME NOT SEEING ANY BIG CHANCES IN THE OVER ALL PATTERN
THAT WILL LEAD TO DRIER CONDITIONS. IF ANYTHING LATE NEXT WEEK
COULD BE EVEN WETTER. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY
WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST SHIFTING EAST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINANTLY. USED LATEST HRRR FORECAST FOR TIMING
ON CONVECTION AT KCYS AND KLAR THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR SUGGESTING THE
POSSIBILITY OF LATE NIGHT CONVECTION ONCE AGIAN THAT COULD IMPACT
KBFF AND KSNY OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WENT WITH VCTS WORDING IN THEIR
TAFS. WILL TRY TO NARROW DOWN TIMING AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH NEARLY
DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT...THOUGH BRIEFLY
GUSTY AROUND STORMS. A MONSOON PATTERN MAY SET UP NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...TJT




000
FXUS65 KCYS 031719
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1119 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

CURRENT KCYS RADAR LOOP SHOWS CONVECTION LINGERING INTO EARLY
THIS MORNING ONCE AGAIN AS A 75 KNOT JET STREAK ALOFT TRANSLATES
INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING FROM THE NORTH. A PRETTY STRONG CLUSTER IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR FORT LARAMIE AND WHEATLAND...MOVING
SOUTHEAST. BELIEVE THESE ISOLATED CELLS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THEY MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO COLORADO. CAN NOT RULE
OUT MORE CELLS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS
MORNING AS WELL DUE TO ELEVATED CAPE. EXPECT A BRIEF LULL IN THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOMETIME LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH NOON
TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH READINGS IN THE 80S. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW BECOMING STRONG LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. KEPT POP BETWEEN 20 TO 25 PERCENT OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS
FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT COVERAGE INTO TONIGHT. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO JET DYNAMICS ALOFT.

NEXT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S
ONCE AGAIN. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AS
IT HAS SINCE MAY WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY IN THE 50S TO MID 60S.
KEPT POP BETWEEN 10 TO 20 PERCENT FOR NOW DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES...EVEN THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE HIGH CAPE
VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG AND LOWERING CIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA. HOWEVER...ANY TSTORMS MAY BE VERY ISOLATED OR
FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS AND DRIER AIR ALOFT.

ALL MODELS INDICATE AN APPROACHING CANADIAN COLD FRONT DIGGING
SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT IS PRETTY STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO 0C LATE ON SUNDAY
JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
INTERACT WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND AMPLE LOW TO MIDLEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA...PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTORMS
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN
THE LATE MORNING OR AROUND NOON...AND THEN FALL INTO THE 70S
THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASED POP BETWEEN 30 TO 50 PERCENT FOR THE
HIGH VALLEYS AND HIGH PLAINS...WITH VALUES NEAR 70 PERCENT FOR THE
MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL FLATTEN OUT SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A RATHER STRONG NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVES ACROSS MONTANA
AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWARD INTO WYOMING AND NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL
PUSH COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA AND LIKELY PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE AS RAIN COOLED AIR AND LIGHT
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED MONDAY
BY A STABLE LOW LEVEL AIR BUT ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM.

TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TUESDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS
BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY WITH A SURFACE LEE
TROUGH ALONG THE ROCKIES. THIS MEANS THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. COULD EVEN SEE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IMPACT THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH EVEN
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR.

AT THIS TIME NOT SEEING ANY BIG CHANCES IN THE OVER ALL PATTERN
THAT WILL LEAD TO DRIER CONDITIONS. IF ANYTHING LATE NEXT WEEK
COULD BE EVEN WETTER. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY
WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST SHIFTING EAST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINANTLY. USED LATEST HRRR FORECAST FOR TIMING
ON CONVECTION AT KCYS AND KLAR THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR SUGGESTING THE
POSSIBILITY OF LATE NIGHT CONVECTION ONCE AGIAN THAT COULD IMPACT
KBFF AND KSNY OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WENT WITH VCTS WORDING IN THEIR
TAFS. WILL TRY TO NARROW DOWN TIMING AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH NEARLY
DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT...THOUGH BRIEFLY
GUSTY AROUND STORMS. A MONSOON PATTERN MAY SET UP NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...TJT




000
FXUS65 KCYS 031719
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1119 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

CURRENT KCYS RADAR LOOP SHOWS CONVECTION LINGERING INTO EARLY
THIS MORNING ONCE AGAIN AS A 75 KNOT JET STREAK ALOFT TRANSLATES
INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING FROM THE NORTH. A PRETTY STRONG CLUSTER IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR FORT LARAMIE AND WHEATLAND...MOVING
SOUTHEAST. BELIEVE THESE ISOLATED CELLS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THEY MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO COLORADO. CAN NOT RULE
OUT MORE CELLS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS
MORNING AS WELL DUE TO ELEVATED CAPE. EXPECT A BRIEF LULL IN THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOMETIME LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH NOON
TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH READINGS IN THE 80S. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW BECOMING STRONG LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. KEPT POP BETWEEN 20 TO 25 PERCENT OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS
FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT COVERAGE INTO TONIGHT. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO JET DYNAMICS ALOFT.

NEXT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S
ONCE AGAIN. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AS
IT HAS SINCE MAY WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY IN THE 50S TO MID 60S.
KEPT POP BETWEEN 10 TO 20 PERCENT FOR NOW DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES...EVEN THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE HIGH CAPE
VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG AND LOWERING CIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA. HOWEVER...ANY TSTORMS MAY BE VERY ISOLATED OR
FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS AND DRIER AIR ALOFT.

ALL MODELS INDICATE AN APPROACHING CANADIAN COLD FRONT DIGGING
SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT IS PRETTY STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO 0C LATE ON SUNDAY
JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
INTERACT WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND AMPLE LOW TO MIDLEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA...PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTORMS
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN
THE LATE MORNING OR AROUND NOON...AND THEN FALL INTO THE 70S
THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASED POP BETWEEN 30 TO 50 PERCENT FOR THE
HIGH VALLEYS AND HIGH PLAINS...WITH VALUES NEAR 70 PERCENT FOR THE
MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL FLATTEN OUT SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A RATHER STRONG NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVES ACROSS MONTANA
AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWARD INTO WYOMING AND NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL
PUSH COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA AND LIKELY PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE AS RAIN COOLED AIR AND LIGHT
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED MONDAY
BY A STABLE LOW LEVEL AIR BUT ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM.

TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TUESDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS
BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY WITH A SURFACE LEE
TROUGH ALONG THE ROCKIES. THIS MEANS THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. COULD EVEN SEE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IMPACT THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH EVEN
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR.

AT THIS TIME NOT SEEING ANY BIG CHANCES IN THE OVER ALL PATTERN
THAT WILL LEAD TO DRIER CONDITIONS. IF ANYTHING LATE NEXT WEEK
COULD BE EVEN WETTER. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY
WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST SHIFTING EAST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINANTLY. USED LATEST HRRR FORECAST FOR TIMING
ON CONVECTION AT KCYS AND KLAR THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR SUGGESTING THE
POSSIBILITY OF LATE NIGHT CONVECTION ONCE AGIAN THAT COULD IMPACT
KBFF AND KSNY OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WENT WITH VCTS WORDING IN THEIR
TAFS. WILL TRY TO NARROW DOWN TIMING AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH NEARLY
DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT...THOUGH BRIEFLY
GUSTY AROUND STORMS. A MONSOON PATTERN MAY SET UP NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...TJT



000
FXUS63 KUNR 031715
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1115 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA. SOME
BR/FU FROM EAST CENTRAL MT INTO EASTERN NE...SHOULD LAST UNTIL
EARLY MORNING AND THEN MIX OUT AS DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE BEINGS.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...WATER VAPOUR HAD SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL MT
WHICH IS TAPPING INTO WEAK MUCAPE FOR ISOLATED -SHRA/TS. ACTIVITY
SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA THIS MORNING. IT MAY BE
FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING -TSRA AS 0.5-1KJ/KG MLCAPE
DEVELOPS ALONG WITH 25-75J/KG MLCIN. SURFACE REFLECTION OF
SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO BE WEAK AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST.
EXPANDED LOW POPS FROM THE BLACK HILLS TO SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF
SHORTWAVE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED WITH TYPICAL LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF WEAK LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E ADVECTION. WITH
SHORTWAVE PASSING TO OUR EAST AND IMPLIED SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
IT...LEFT FORECAST DRY...BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISE TO SEE ACCAS.
TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE IN THE WEST/SLIGHTLY ABOVE IN THE EAST.

SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST MT INTO EASTERN
CO...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL NE. THIS MAY BE FOCUS FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA ACTIVITY WITH 1-2KJ/KG MLCAPE AVAILABLE. 0-
6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
TSRA...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST SD AS TERRAIN AND TROUGH INTERACT.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED DURING PEAK HEATING WITH 25-75J/KG MLCIN.
AS UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA SWINGS INTO CENTRAL CANADA...SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS FLATTENED CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF
STORMS ACROSS THE CWA. WITH STRONG SHEAR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THE FROPA...COULD SEE SOME SEVERE
STORMS DEVELOP.

DRIER NW FLOW WILL KEEP EARLY NEXT WEEK DRY...THOUGH A FEW STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE OVER NE WY/BLKHLS. COOLER TEMPS MON/TUE WILL
BECOME MORE SEASONAL THROUGH MID WEEK AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES OF
STORMS TO THE AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS63 KUNR 031715
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1115 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA. SOME
BR/FU FROM EAST CENTRAL MT INTO EASTERN NE...SHOULD LAST UNTIL
EARLY MORNING AND THEN MIX OUT AS DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE BEINGS.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...WATER VAPOUR HAD SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL MT
WHICH IS TAPPING INTO WEAK MUCAPE FOR ISOLATED -SHRA/TS. ACTIVITY
SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA THIS MORNING. IT MAY BE
FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING -TSRA AS 0.5-1KJ/KG MLCAPE
DEVELOPS ALONG WITH 25-75J/KG MLCIN. SURFACE REFLECTION OF
SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO BE WEAK AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST.
EXPANDED LOW POPS FROM THE BLACK HILLS TO SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF
SHORTWAVE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED WITH TYPICAL LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF WEAK LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E ADVECTION. WITH
SHORTWAVE PASSING TO OUR EAST AND IMPLIED SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
IT...LEFT FORECAST DRY...BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISE TO SEE ACCAS.
TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE IN THE WEST/SLIGHTLY ABOVE IN THE EAST.

SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST MT INTO EASTERN
CO...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL NE. THIS MAY BE FOCUS FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA ACTIVITY WITH 1-2KJ/KG MLCAPE AVAILABLE. 0-
6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
TSRA...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST SD AS TERRAIN AND TROUGH INTERACT.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED DURING PEAK HEATING WITH 25-75J/KG MLCIN.
AS UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA SWINGS INTO CENTRAL CANADA...SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS FLATTENED CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF
STORMS ACROSS THE CWA. WITH STRONG SHEAR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THE FROPA...COULD SEE SOME SEVERE
STORMS DEVELOP.

DRIER NW FLOW WILL KEEP EARLY NEXT WEEK DRY...THOUGH A FEW STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE OVER NE WY/BLKHLS. COOLER TEMPS MON/TUE WILL
BECOME MORE SEASONAL THROUGH MID WEEK AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES OF
STORMS TO THE AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KUNR 031138
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
538 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA. SOME
BR/FU FROM EAST CENTRAL MT INTO EASTERN NE...SHOULD LAST UNTIL
EARLY MORNING AND THEN MIX OUT AS DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE BEINGS.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...WATER VAPOUR HAD SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL MT
WHICH IS TAPPING INTO WEAK MUCAPE FOR ISOLATED -SHRA/TS. ACTIVITY
SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA THIS MORNING. IT MAY BE
FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING -TSRA AS 0.5-1KJ/KG MLCAPE
DEVELOPS ALONG WITH 25-75J/KG MLCIN. SURFACE REFLECTION OF
SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO BE WEAK AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST.
EXPANDED LOW POPS FROM THE BLACK HILLS TO SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF
SHORTWAVE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED WITH TYPICAL LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF WEAK LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E ADVECTION. WITH
SHORTWAVE PASSING TO OUR EAST AND IMPLIED SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
IT...LEFT FORECAST DRY...BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISE TO SEE ACCAS.
TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE IN THE WEST/SLIGHTLY ABOVE IN THE EAST.

SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST MT INTO EASTERN
CO...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL NE. THIS MAY BE FOCUS FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA ACTIVITY WITH 1-2KJ/KG MLCAPE AVAILABLE. 0-
6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
TSRA...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST SD AS TERRAIN AND TROUGH INTERACT.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED DURING PEAK HEATING WITH 25-75J/KG MLCIN.
AS UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA SWINGS INTO CENTRAL CANADA...SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS FLATTENED CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF
STORMS ACROSS THE CWA. WITH STRONG SHEAR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THE FROPA...COULD SEE SOME SEVERE
STORMS DEVELOP.

DRIER NW FLOW WILL KEEP EARLY NEXT WEEK DRY...THOUGH A FEW STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE OVER NE WY/BLKHLS. COOLER TEMPS MON/TUE WILL
BECOME MORE SEASONAL THROUGH MID WEEK AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES OF
STORMS TO THE AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. IFR VSBY DUE
TO FG WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING ACROSS SCNTRL SD. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
BLKHLS AREA THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVNG. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER PRECIP.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13



000
FXUS63 KUNR 031138
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
538 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA. SOME
BR/FU FROM EAST CENTRAL MT INTO EASTERN NE...SHOULD LAST UNTIL
EARLY MORNING AND THEN MIX OUT AS DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE BEINGS.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...WATER VAPOUR HAD SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL MT
WHICH IS TAPPING INTO WEAK MUCAPE FOR ISOLATED -SHRA/TS. ACTIVITY
SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA THIS MORNING. IT MAY BE
FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING -TSRA AS 0.5-1KJ/KG MLCAPE
DEVELOPS ALONG WITH 25-75J/KG MLCIN. SURFACE REFLECTION OF
SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO BE WEAK AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST.
EXPANDED LOW POPS FROM THE BLACK HILLS TO SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF
SHORTWAVE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED WITH TYPICAL LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF WEAK LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E ADVECTION. WITH
SHORTWAVE PASSING TO OUR EAST AND IMPLIED SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
IT...LEFT FORECAST DRY...BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISE TO SEE ACCAS.
TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE IN THE WEST/SLIGHTLY ABOVE IN THE EAST.

SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST MT INTO EASTERN
CO...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL NE. THIS MAY BE FOCUS FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA ACTIVITY WITH 1-2KJ/KG MLCAPE AVAILABLE. 0-
6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
TSRA...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST SD AS TERRAIN AND TROUGH INTERACT.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED DURING PEAK HEATING WITH 25-75J/KG MLCIN.
AS UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA SWINGS INTO CENTRAL CANADA...SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS FLATTENED CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF
STORMS ACROSS THE CWA. WITH STRONG SHEAR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THE FROPA...COULD SEE SOME SEVERE
STORMS DEVELOP.

DRIER NW FLOW WILL KEEP EARLY NEXT WEEK DRY...THOUGH A FEW STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE OVER NE WY/BLKHLS. COOLER TEMPS MON/TUE WILL
BECOME MORE SEASONAL THROUGH MID WEEK AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES OF
STORMS TO THE AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. IFR VSBY DUE
TO FG WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING ACROSS SCNTRL SD. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
BLKHLS AREA THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVNG. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER PRECIP.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13




000
FXUS63 KUNR 031138
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
538 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA. SOME
BR/FU FROM EAST CENTRAL MT INTO EASTERN NE...SHOULD LAST UNTIL
EARLY MORNING AND THEN MIX OUT AS DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE BEINGS.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...WATER VAPOUR HAD SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL MT
WHICH IS TAPPING INTO WEAK MUCAPE FOR ISOLATED -SHRA/TS. ACTIVITY
SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA THIS MORNING. IT MAY BE
FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING -TSRA AS 0.5-1KJ/KG MLCAPE
DEVELOPS ALONG WITH 25-75J/KG MLCIN. SURFACE REFLECTION OF
SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO BE WEAK AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST.
EXPANDED LOW POPS FROM THE BLACK HILLS TO SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF
SHORTWAVE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED WITH TYPICAL LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF WEAK LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E ADVECTION. WITH
SHORTWAVE PASSING TO OUR EAST AND IMPLIED SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
IT...LEFT FORECAST DRY...BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISE TO SEE ACCAS.
TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE IN THE WEST/SLIGHTLY ABOVE IN THE EAST.

SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST MT INTO EASTERN
CO...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL NE. THIS MAY BE FOCUS FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA ACTIVITY WITH 1-2KJ/KG MLCAPE AVAILABLE. 0-
6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
TSRA...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST SD AS TERRAIN AND TROUGH INTERACT.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED DURING PEAK HEATING WITH 25-75J/KG MLCIN.
AS UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA SWINGS INTO CENTRAL CANADA...SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS FLATTENED CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF
STORMS ACROSS THE CWA. WITH STRONG SHEAR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THE FROPA...COULD SEE SOME SEVERE
STORMS DEVELOP.

DRIER NW FLOW WILL KEEP EARLY NEXT WEEK DRY...THOUGH A FEW STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE OVER NE WY/BLKHLS. COOLER TEMPS MON/TUE WILL
BECOME MORE SEASONAL THROUGH MID WEEK AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES OF
STORMS TO THE AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. IFR VSBY DUE
TO FG WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING ACROSS SCNTRL SD. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
BLKHLS AREA THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVNG. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER PRECIP.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13




000
FXUS63 KUNR 031138
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
538 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA. SOME
BR/FU FROM EAST CENTRAL MT INTO EASTERN NE...SHOULD LAST UNTIL
EARLY MORNING AND THEN MIX OUT AS DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE BEINGS.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...WATER VAPOUR HAD SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL MT
WHICH IS TAPPING INTO WEAK MUCAPE FOR ISOLATED -SHRA/TS. ACTIVITY
SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA THIS MORNING. IT MAY BE
FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING -TSRA AS 0.5-1KJ/KG MLCAPE
DEVELOPS ALONG WITH 25-75J/KG MLCIN. SURFACE REFLECTION OF
SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO BE WEAK AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST.
EXPANDED LOW POPS FROM THE BLACK HILLS TO SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF
SHORTWAVE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED WITH TYPICAL LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF WEAK LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E ADVECTION. WITH
SHORTWAVE PASSING TO OUR EAST AND IMPLIED SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
IT...LEFT FORECAST DRY...BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISE TO SEE ACCAS.
TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE IN THE WEST/SLIGHTLY ABOVE IN THE EAST.

SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST MT INTO EASTERN
CO...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL NE. THIS MAY BE FOCUS FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA ACTIVITY WITH 1-2KJ/KG MLCAPE AVAILABLE. 0-
6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
TSRA...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST SD AS TERRAIN AND TROUGH INTERACT.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED DURING PEAK HEATING WITH 25-75J/KG MLCIN.
AS UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA SWINGS INTO CENTRAL CANADA...SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS FLATTENED CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF
STORMS ACROSS THE CWA. WITH STRONG SHEAR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THE FROPA...COULD SEE SOME SEVERE
STORMS DEVELOP.

DRIER NW FLOW WILL KEEP EARLY NEXT WEEK DRY...THOUGH A FEW STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE OVER NE WY/BLKHLS. COOLER TEMPS MON/TUE WILL
BECOME MORE SEASONAL THROUGH MID WEEK AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES OF
STORMS TO THE AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. IFR VSBY DUE
TO FG WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING ACROSS SCNTRL SD. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
BLKHLS AREA THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVNG. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER PRECIP.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13



000
FXUS65 KCYS 031003
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
403 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

CURRENT KCYS RADAR LOOP SHOWS CONVECTION LINGERING INTO EARLY
THIS MORNING ONCE AGAIN AS A 75 KNOT JET STREAK ALOFT TRANSLATES
INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING FROM THE NORTH. A PRETTY STRONG CLUSTER IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR FORT LARAMIE AND WHEATLAND...MOVING
SOUTHEAST. BELIEVE THESE ISOLATED CELLS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THEY MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO COLORADO. CAN NOT RULE
OUT MORE CELLS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS
MORNING AS WELL DUE TO ELEVATED CAPE. EXPECT A BRIEF LULL IN THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOMETIME LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH NOON
TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH READINGS IN THE 80S. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW BECOMING STRONG LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. KEPT POP BETWEEN 20 TO 25 PERCENT OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS
FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT COVERAGE INTO TONIGHT. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO JET DYNAMICS ALOFT.

NEXT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S
ONCE AGAIN. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AS
IT HAS SINCE MAY WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY IN THE 50S TO MID 60S.
KEPT POP BETWEEN 10 TO 20 PERCENT FOR NOW DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES...EVEN THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE HIGH CAPE
VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG AND LOWERING CIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA. HOWEVER...ANY TSTORMS MAY BE VERY ISOLATED OR
FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS AND DRIER AIR ALOFT.

ALL MODELS INDICATE AN APPROACHING CANADIAN COLD FRONT DIGGING
SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT IS PRETTY STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO 0C LATE ON SUNDAY
JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
INTERACT WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND AMPLE LOW TO MIDLEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA...PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTORMS
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN
THE LATE MORNING OR AROUND NOON...AND THEN FALL INTO THE 70S
THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASED POP BETWEEN 30 TO 50 PERCENT FOR THE
HIGH VALLEYS AND HIGH PLAINS...WITH VALUES NEAR 70 PERCENT FOR THE
MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL FLATTEN OUT SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A RATHER STRONG NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVES ACROSS MONTANA
AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWARD INTO WYOMING AND NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL
PUSH COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA AND LIKELY PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE AS RAIN COOLED AIR AND LIGHT
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED MONDAY
BY A STABLE LOW LEVEL AIR BUT ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM.

TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TUESDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS
BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY WITH A SURFACE LEE
TROUGH ALONG THE ROCKIES. THIS MEANS THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. COULD EVEN SEE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IMPACT THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH EVEN
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR.

AT THIS TIME NOT SEEING ANY BIG CHANCES IN THE OVER ALL PATTERN
THAT WILL LEAD TO DRIER CONDITIONS. IF ANYTHING LATE NEXT WEEK
COULD BE EVEN WETTER. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY
WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST SHIFTING EAST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING
NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER. STORMS SHOULD MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO COLORADO
SOMETIME AROUND 12Z. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
IN LOW LYING AND SHELTERED LOCATIONS BUT IMPACTS ON AVIATION SHOULD
BE MINIMAL. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL IS THE MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH NEARLY
DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT...THOUGH BRIEFLY
GUSTY AROUND STORMS. A MONSOON PATTERN MAY SET UP NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...TJT




000
FXUS65 KRIW 030936
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
336 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

AS FOR THE WEATHER TODAY AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IT
LOOKS LIKE A CARBON COPY OF THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. WAIT THIS IS
2015...MAYBE I SHOULD HAVE SAID PHOTOCOPY OR PDF. ANYWAY...WITH THE
RIDGE CONTINUING TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA LOOK FOR ANOTHER VERY
WARM DAY ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. AND...LIKE IN PREVIOUS
DAYS...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...THIS ONE MOVING IN FROM NORTHERN
IDAHO...WILL BRUSH BY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO THE AREA TO BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATION THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...A FEW MAY MOVE OFF
OF THE MOUNTAINS BUT WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW MOST AREAS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

AS WE HEAD INTO INDEPENDENCE DAY...IT STILL LOOKS TO BE HOT AS A
FIRECRACKER ACROSS THE AREA AS THE RIDGE REACHES IT`S PEAK STRENGTH
ACROSS THE COWBOY STATE. THIS MEANS THAT IT WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS RISING INTO THE 90S. ALSO...WITH
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...THIS WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF THE
NATURES FIREWORKS IN THE FORM OF THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WITH THE HIGH ELEVATION HEAT
SOURCE. HOWEVER...GET READY FOR A BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER AS WE
HEAD INTO SUNDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE DURING
SUNDAY AND USHER IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE NEW GFS MOS
ACTUALLY LOWERS HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ACROSS MANY OF THE
LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS. THIS MAY BE OVERDONE...BUT MANY AREAS
COULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO OVER 1 INCH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CLIMB AS WELL. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE QUESTION OF HOW STRONG THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE. A LOT DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY THERE
IS. AND NOW BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE FAIRLY LIMITED INSTABILITY
WITH LIFTED INDICES NEAR ZERO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY POSITIVE AND LIMITED
CAPE. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. BUT THE
BIG STORY THAT DAY WILL BE FOR MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THERE
HAVE BEEN SEEN FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NW FLOW ALOFT FOR MONDAY. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ACTIVITY EAST OF THE
DIVIDE LOOKS TO BE MONDAY EVENING INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY
THE LONG RANGE MODELS HINT AT A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WOULD BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM
IN A NW FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION WED AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THE GFS MODEL IS SLOWER WITH TIMING AND THE ECMWF MODEL IS
FASTER. AGAIN THIS WOULD BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO THE REGION WED PM AND NIGHT. THURSDAY ALSO LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
FORECAST. NEXT FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR STORMS. TEMPS WILL BE MILD TO WARM MONDAY...THEN WARMER TUE. WED
WILL BE WARM AS WELL BUT HAVE BROUGHT SLIGHT COOLING INTO THE NORTH
AS THAT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES. 700MB TEMPS REBOUND QUICKLY NEXT
THURS AND FRI WHICH BRINGS WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH SE ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING
TODAY. SOME ISOLD -SHRA WILL MOVE INTO NW WYOMING THIS MORNING.
THEN EXPECT ISOLD-WDLY SCT -TSRAGS MAINLY VCNTY AND NORTH OF A KJAC-
KLND-KCPR LINE IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH.  BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STORMS.  MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR THE AREA OR
DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET...WITH SKC-FEW FL150-200 PREVAILING AFTER 06Z
SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN...LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA.
MOST OF THE BASINS HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE.  OVER AND NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER OVER THE NORTH AND EAST
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST. A MAJOR CHANGE WILL
MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS.&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS



000
FXUS65 KRIW 030936
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
336 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

AS FOR THE WEATHER TODAY AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IT
LOOKS LIKE A CARBON COPY OF THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. WAIT THIS IS
2015...MAYBE I SHOULD HAVE SAID PHOTOCOPY OR PDF. ANYWAY...WITH THE
RIDGE CONTINUING TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA LOOK FOR ANOTHER VERY
WARM DAY ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. AND...LIKE IN PREVIOUS
DAYS...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...THIS ONE MOVING IN FROM NORTHERN
IDAHO...WILL BRUSH BY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO THE AREA TO BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATION THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...A FEW MAY MOVE OFF
OF THE MOUNTAINS BUT WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW MOST AREAS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

AS WE HEAD INTO INDEPENDENCE DAY...IT STILL LOOKS TO BE HOT AS A
FIRECRACKER ACROSS THE AREA AS THE RIDGE REACHES IT`S PEAK STRENGTH
ACROSS THE COWBOY STATE. THIS MEANS THAT IT WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS RISING INTO THE 90S. ALSO...WITH
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...THIS WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF THE
NATURES FIREWORKS IN THE FORM OF THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WITH THE HIGH ELEVATION HEAT
SOURCE. HOWEVER...GET READY FOR A BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER AS WE
HEAD INTO SUNDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE DURING
SUNDAY AND USHER IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE NEW GFS MOS
ACTUALLY LOWERS HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ACROSS MANY OF THE
LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS. THIS MAY BE OVERDONE...BUT MANY AREAS
COULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO OVER 1 INCH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CLIMB AS WELL. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE QUESTION OF HOW STRONG THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE. A LOT DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY THERE
IS. AND NOW BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE FAIRLY LIMITED INSTABILITY
WITH LIFTED INDICES NEAR ZERO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY POSITIVE AND LIMITED
CAPE. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. BUT THE
BIG STORY THAT DAY WILL BE FOR MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THERE
HAVE BEEN SEEN FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NW FLOW ALOFT FOR MONDAY. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ACTIVITY EAST OF THE
DIVIDE LOOKS TO BE MONDAY EVENING INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY
THE LONG RANGE MODELS HINT AT A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WOULD BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM
IN A NW FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION WED AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THE GFS MODEL IS SLOWER WITH TIMING AND THE ECMWF MODEL IS
FASTER. AGAIN THIS WOULD BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO THE REGION WED PM AND NIGHT. THURSDAY ALSO LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
FORECAST. NEXT FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR STORMS. TEMPS WILL BE MILD TO WARM MONDAY...THEN WARMER TUE. WED
WILL BE WARM AS WELL BUT HAVE BROUGHT SLIGHT COOLING INTO THE NORTH
AS THAT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES. 700MB TEMPS REBOUND QUICKLY NEXT
THURS AND FRI WHICH BRINGS WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH SE ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING
TODAY. SOME ISOLD -SHRA WILL MOVE INTO NW WYOMING THIS MORNING.
THEN EXPECT ISOLD-WDLY SCT -TSRAGS MAINLY VCNTY AND NORTH OF A KJAC-
KLND-KCPR LINE IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH.  BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STORMS.  MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR THE AREA OR
DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET...WITH SKC-FEW FL150-200 PREVAILING AFTER 06Z
SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN...LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA.
MOST OF THE BASINS HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE.  OVER AND NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER OVER THE NORTH AND EAST
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST. A MAJOR CHANGE WILL
MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS.&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS




000
FXUS63 KUNR 030840
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
240 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA. SOME
BR/FU FROM EAST CENTRAL MT INTO EASTERN NE...SHOULD LAST UNTIL
EARLY MORNING AND THEN MIX OUT AS DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE BEINGS.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...WATER VAPOUR HAD SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL MT
WHICH IS TAPPING INTO WEAK MUCAPE FOR ISOLATED -SHRA/TS. ACTIVITY
SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA THIS MORNING. IT MAY BE
FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING -TSRA AS 0.5-1KJ/KG MLCAPE
DEVELOPS ALONG WITH 25-75J/KG MLCIN. SURFACE REFLECTION OF
SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO BE WEAK AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST.
EXPANDED LOW POPS FROM THE BLACK HILLS TO SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF
SHORTWAVE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED WITH TYPICAL LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF WEAK LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E ADVECTION. WITH
SHORTWAVE PASSING TO OUR EAST AND IMPLIED SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
IT...LEFT FORECAST DRY...BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISE TO SEE ACCAS.
TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE IN THE WEST/SLIGHTLY ABOVE IN THE EAST.

SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST MT INTO EASTERN
CO...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL NE. THIS MAY BE FOCUS FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA ACTIVITY WITH 1-2KJ/KG MLCAPE AVAILABLE. 0-
6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
TSRA...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST SD AS TERRAIN AND TROUGH INTERACT.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED DURING PEAK HEATING WITH 25-75J/KG MLCIN.
AS UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA SWINGS INTO CENTRAL CANADA...SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS FLATTENED CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF
STORMS ACROSS THE CWA. WITH STRONG SHEAR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THE FROPA...COULD SEE SOME SEVERE
STORMS DEVELOP.

DRIER NW FLOW WILL KEEP EARLY NEXT WEEK DRY...THOUGH A FEW STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE OVER NE WY/BLKHLS. COOLER TEMPS MON/TUE WILL
BECOME MORE SEASONAL THROUGH MID WEEK AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES OF
STORMS TO THE AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
BLKHLS AREA THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVNG. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER PRECIP.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13



000
FXUS63 KUNR 030840
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
240 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA. SOME
BR/FU FROM EAST CENTRAL MT INTO EASTERN NE...SHOULD LAST UNTIL
EARLY MORNING AND THEN MIX OUT AS DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE BEINGS.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...WATER VAPOUR HAD SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL MT
WHICH IS TAPPING INTO WEAK MUCAPE FOR ISOLATED -SHRA/TS. ACTIVITY
SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA THIS MORNING. IT MAY BE
FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING -TSRA AS 0.5-1KJ/KG MLCAPE
DEVELOPS ALONG WITH 25-75J/KG MLCIN. SURFACE REFLECTION OF
SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO BE WEAK AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST.
EXPANDED LOW POPS FROM THE BLACK HILLS TO SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF
SHORTWAVE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED WITH TYPICAL LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF WEAK LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E ADVECTION. WITH
SHORTWAVE PASSING TO OUR EAST AND IMPLIED SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
IT...LEFT FORECAST DRY...BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISE TO SEE ACCAS.
TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE IN THE WEST/SLIGHTLY ABOVE IN THE EAST.

SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST MT INTO EASTERN
CO...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL NE. THIS MAY BE FOCUS FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA ACTIVITY WITH 1-2KJ/KG MLCAPE AVAILABLE. 0-
6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
TSRA...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST SD AS TERRAIN AND TROUGH INTERACT.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED DURING PEAK HEATING WITH 25-75J/KG MLCIN.
AS UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA SWINGS INTO CENTRAL CANADA...SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS FLATTENED CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF
STORMS ACROSS THE CWA. WITH STRONG SHEAR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THE FROPA...COULD SEE SOME SEVERE
STORMS DEVELOP.

DRIER NW FLOW WILL KEEP EARLY NEXT WEEK DRY...THOUGH A FEW STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE OVER NE WY/BLKHLS. COOLER TEMPS MON/TUE WILL
BECOME MORE SEASONAL THROUGH MID WEEK AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES OF
STORMS TO THE AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
BLKHLS AREA THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVNG. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER PRECIP.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13



000
FXUS63 KUNR 030840
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
240 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA. SOME
BR/FU FROM EAST CENTRAL MT INTO EASTERN NE...SHOULD LAST UNTIL
EARLY MORNING AND THEN MIX OUT AS DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE BEINGS.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...WATER VAPOUR HAD SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL MT
WHICH IS TAPPING INTO WEAK MUCAPE FOR ISOLATED -SHRA/TS. ACTIVITY
SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA THIS MORNING. IT MAY BE
FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING -TSRA AS 0.5-1KJ/KG MLCAPE
DEVELOPS ALONG WITH 25-75J/KG MLCIN. SURFACE REFLECTION OF
SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO BE WEAK AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST.
EXPANDED LOW POPS FROM THE BLACK HILLS TO SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF
SHORTWAVE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED WITH TYPICAL LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF WEAK LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E ADVECTION. WITH
SHORTWAVE PASSING TO OUR EAST AND IMPLIED SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
IT...LEFT FORECAST DRY...BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISE TO SEE ACCAS.
TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE IN THE WEST/SLIGHTLY ABOVE IN THE EAST.

SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST MT INTO EASTERN
CO...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL NE. THIS MAY BE FOCUS FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA ACTIVITY WITH 1-2KJ/KG MLCAPE AVAILABLE. 0-
6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
TSRA...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST SD AS TERRAIN AND TROUGH INTERACT.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED DURING PEAK HEATING WITH 25-75J/KG MLCIN.
AS UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA SWINGS INTO CENTRAL CANADA...SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS FLATTENED CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF
STORMS ACROSS THE CWA. WITH STRONG SHEAR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THE FROPA...COULD SEE SOME SEVERE
STORMS DEVELOP.

DRIER NW FLOW WILL KEEP EARLY NEXT WEEK DRY...THOUGH A FEW STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE OVER NE WY/BLKHLS. COOLER TEMPS MON/TUE WILL
BECOME MORE SEASONAL THROUGH MID WEEK AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES OF
STORMS TO THE AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
BLKHLS AREA THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVNG. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER PRECIP.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13



000
FXUS63 KUNR 030840
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
240 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA. SOME
BR/FU FROM EAST CENTRAL MT INTO EASTERN NE...SHOULD LAST UNTIL
EARLY MORNING AND THEN MIX OUT AS DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE BEINGS.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...WATER VAPOUR HAD SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL MT
WHICH IS TAPPING INTO WEAK MUCAPE FOR ISOLATED -SHRA/TS. ACTIVITY
SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA THIS MORNING. IT MAY BE
FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING -TSRA AS 0.5-1KJ/KG MLCAPE
DEVELOPS ALONG WITH 25-75J/KG MLCIN. SURFACE REFLECTION OF
SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO BE WEAK AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST.
EXPANDED LOW POPS FROM THE BLACK HILLS TO SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF
SHORTWAVE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED WITH TYPICAL LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF WEAK LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E ADVECTION. WITH
SHORTWAVE PASSING TO OUR EAST AND IMPLIED SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
IT...LEFT FORECAST DRY...BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISE TO SEE ACCAS.
TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE IN THE WEST/SLIGHTLY ABOVE IN THE EAST.

SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST MT INTO EASTERN
CO...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL NE. THIS MAY BE FOCUS FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA ACTIVITY WITH 1-2KJ/KG MLCAPE AVAILABLE. 0-
6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
TSRA...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST SD AS TERRAIN AND TROUGH INTERACT.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED DURING PEAK HEATING WITH 25-75J/KG MLCIN.
AS UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA SWINGS INTO CENTRAL CANADA...SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS FLATTENED CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF
STORMS ACROSS THE CWA. WITH STRONG SHEAR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THE FROPA...COULD SEE SOME SEVERE
STORMS DEVELOP.

DRIER NW FLOW WILL KEEP EARLY NEXT WEEK DRY...THOUGH A FEW STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE OVER NE WY/BLKHLS. COOLER TEMPS MON/TUE WILL
BECOME MORE SEASONAL THROUGH MID WEEK AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES OF
STORMS TO THE AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
BLKHLS AREA THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVNG. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER PRECIP.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13



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