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000
FXUS64 KTSA 040450
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1150 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Mostly clear conditions and light winds should continue overnight
tonight across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. During the
day Wednesday...west to northwesterly winds are forecast to become
breezy with mostly clear skies remaining common over the region.
Northerly winds should begin to subside Wednesday evening. VFR
conditions should persist through the TAF period for all TAF
locations.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 911 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Current forecast on track this evening with no significant
changes anticipated in the short term.  Light and variable
winds are expected to become more southwesterly late tonight
into Wednesday morning ahead of weak boundary/wind shift.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   50  78  46  78 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   50  78  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   50  79  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   46  76  41  78 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   43  73  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   48  72  43  72 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   48  77  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   48  73  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
F10   50  79  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   50  80  49  77 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20



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000
FXUS64 KOUN 040446
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1146 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.AVIATION...
0406/0506 TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
ABOUT 14-15Z. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP/INCREASE
BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY...THEN DECREASE AROUND SUNSET
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 921 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

UPDATE...
REMOVED POPS AFTER 03Z. SEE SHORT DISCUSSION BELOW.

DISCUSSION...
THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR THIS
EVENING. ANY REMAINING SHOWERS HAVE DONE THE SAME, WITH ONLY A
SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS NOW PRESENT WEST OF THE DFW METROPLEX. CLOUD
COVER WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THIS
FEATURE. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT WERE MADE TO SKY GRIDS, BUT DID
REMOVE ANY MENTIONABLE POPS AFTER 03Z. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS
TO DEWPOINTS BUT OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. ALL
UPDATED PRODUCTS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF BEING SENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  77  49  78 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         49  79  49  80 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  51  80  51  81 /  20   0   0   0
GAGE OK           46  79  47  83 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     50  76  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         52  78  50  77 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 040221 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
921 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
REMOVED POPS AFTER 03Z. SEE SHORT DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR THIS
EVENING. ANY REMAINING SHOWERS HAVE DONE THE SAME, WITH ONLY A
SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS NOW PRESENT WEST OF THE DFW METROPLEX. CLOUD
COVER WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THIS
FEATURE. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT WERE MADE TO SKY GRIDS, BUT DID
REMOVE ANY MENTIONABLE POPS AFTER 03Z. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS
TO DEWPOINTS BUT OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. ALL
UPDATED PRODUCTS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF BEING SENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  77  49  78 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         49  79  49  80 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  51  80  51  81 /  20   0   0   0
GAGE OK           46  79  47  83 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     50  76  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         52  78  50  77 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/06




000
FXUS64 KOUN 040221 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
921 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
REMOVED POPS AFTER 03Z. SEE SHORT DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR THIS
EVENING. ANY REMAINING SHOWERS HAVE DONE THE SAME, WITH ONLY A
SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS NOW PRESENT WEST OF THE DFW METROPLEX. CLOUD
COVER WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THIS
FEATURE. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT WERE MADE TO SKY GRIDS, BUT DID
REMOVE ANY MENTIONABLE POPS AFTER 03Z. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS
TO DEWPOINTS BUT OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. ALL
UPDATED PRODUCTS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF BEING SENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  77  49  78 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         49  79  49  80 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  51  80  51  81 /  20   0   0   0
GAGE OK           46  79  47  83 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     50  76  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         52  78  50  77 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/06




000
FXUS64 KOUN 040221 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
921 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
REMOVED POPS AFTER 03Z. SEE SHORT DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR THIS
EVENING. ANY REMAINING SHOWERS HAVE DONE THE SAME, WITH ONLY A
SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS NOW PRESENT WEST OF THE DFW METROPLEX. CLOUD
COVER WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THIS
FEATURE. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT WERE MADE TO SKY GRIDS, BUT DID
REMOVE ANY MENTIONABLE POPS AFTER 03Z. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS
TO DEWPOINTS BUT OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. ALL
UPDATED PRODUCTS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF BEING SENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  77  49  78 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         49  79  49  80 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  51  80  51  81 /  20   0   0   0
GAGE OK           46  79  47  83 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     50  76  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         52  78  50  77 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/06




000
FXUS64 KOUN 040221 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
921 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
REMOVED POPS AFTER 03Z. SEE SHORT DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR THIS
EVENING. ANY REMAINING SHOWERS HAVE DONE THE SAME, WITH ONLY A
SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS NOW PRESENT WEST OF THE DFW METROPLEX. CLOUD
COVER WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THIS
FEATURE. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT WERE MADE TO SKY GRIDS, BUT DID
REMOVE ANY MENTIONABLE POPS AFTER 03Z. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS
TO DEWPOINTS BUT OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. ALL
UPDATED PRODUCTS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF BEING SENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  77  49  78 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         49  79  49  80 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  51  80  51  81 /  20   0   0   0
GAGE OK           46  79  47  83 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     50  76  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         52  78  50  77 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/06




000
FXUS64 KTSA 040211
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
911 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Current forecast on track this evening with no significant
changes anticipated in the short term.  Light and variable
winds are expected to become more southwesterly late tonight
into Wednesday morning ahead of weak boundary/wind shift.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12




000
FXUS64 KOUN 032334
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
634 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.AVIATION...
TAFS 0400/0424...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DECREASE OR MOVE SOUTH OF OKLAHOMA
EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. A LIGHT SOUTHWEST AND WEST WIND WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY AND WILL BECOME GUSTY BY
AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
ESPECIALLY WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THEY ARE THE
RESULT OF RELATIVELY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
GENERATE THE RAIN. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SOUTH WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM...AND GENERALLY DECREASE
THIS EVENING WITH WANING INSTABILITY. ALL THE RAIN SHOULD HAVE
ENDED BY MIDNIGHT WITHIN OUR FORECAST AREA.

THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY...WITH A VERY SLOW WARMING
TREND. THEN...THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
ITS SLOW SPEED MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO PREDICT ITS ARRIVAL
TIME...BUT SOMETIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING IS A GOOD
ESTIMATE OF WHEN THE FIRST SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD ARRIVE IN OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES.

AS THE UPPER LOW CRAWLS EAST THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THERE MAY BE A FEW PERIODS WHERE SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR.
THE SPC DAY 4 TO 8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PROVIDES A GOOD EXPLANATION
OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  49  77  49  78 /  20   0   0   0
HOBART OK         47  79  49  80 /  20   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  50  80  51  81 /  40   0   0   0
GAGE OK           44  79  47  83 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     48  76  45  78 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         51  78  50  77 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 032334
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
634 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.AVIATION...
TAFS 0400/0424...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DECREASE OR MOVE SOUTH OF OKLAHOMA
EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. A LIGHT SOUTHWEST AND WEST WIND WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY AND WILL BECOME GUSTY BY
AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
ESPECIALLY WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THEY ARE THE
RESULT OF RELATIVELY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
GENERATE THE RAIN. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SOUTH WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM...AND GENERALLY DECREASE
THIS EVENING WITH WANING INSTABILITY. ALL THE RAIN SHOULD HAVE
ENDED BY MIDNIGHT WITHIN OUR FORECAST AREA.

THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY...WITH A VERY SLOW WARMING
TREND. THEN...THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
ITS SLOW SPEED MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO PREDICT ITS ARRIVAL
TIME...BUT SOMETIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING IS A GOOD
ESTIMATE OF WHEN THE FIRST SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD ARRIVE IN OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES.

AS THE UPPER LOW CRAWLS EAST THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THERE MAY BE A FEW PERIODS WHERE SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR.
THE SPC DAY 4 TO 8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PROVIDES A GOOD EXPLANATION
OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  49  77  49  78 /  20   0   0   0
HOBART OK         47  79  49  80 /  20   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  50  80  51  81 /  40   0   0   0
GAGE OK           44  79  47  83 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     48  76  45  78 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         51  78  50  77 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 032327
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
627 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Scattered mid level clouds will continue to push east and
southeast through Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this
evening before skies begin to clear out overnight. During the day
Wednesday...mostly clear skies should continue across the region
with breezy west to northwesterly winds. VFR conditions are
anticipated through the TAF period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Fairly quiet weather is on tap for the remainder of this week and
beginning of the upcoming weekend, with more eventful weather
thereafter.

A strong shortwave visible in water vapor imagery just north of
the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles region will continue to drop to the
south and east this evening and into the overnight, with any
associated showers and thunderstorms likely to remain west of the
forecast area. Cloudiness will diminish toward tomorrow morning as
the wave moves south of the region.

A weak boundary will drop southward through Oklahoma and Arkansas
tomorrow afternoon and evening with a shift to northerly winds and
maybe a couple of degree drop in temperature following its
passage.

High amplitude upper level ridging will begin to build into the
area late this week and into the weekend, bringing above normal
temperatures back to the region. Have continued the trend of
forecasting temperatures that are a few degrees above those
offered by the blended guidance, given the favorable pattern.

For the latter half of the weekend, the ridging will begin to
break down as an expansive upper low approaches from the west.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase late
Saturday night and into Sunday, likely peaking Monday as the low
lifts northeastward into the Northern and Central Plains region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   50  78  46  78 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   50  78  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   50  79  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   46  76  41  78 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   43  73  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   48  72  43  72 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   48  77  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   48  73  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
F10   50  79  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   50  80  49  77 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20




000
FXUS64 KOUN 032039
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
339 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
ESPECIALLY WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THEY ARE THE
RESULT OF RELATIVELY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
GENERATE THE RAIN. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SOUTH WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM...AND GENERALLY DECREASE
THIS EVENING WITH WANING INSTABILITY. ALL THE RAIN SHOULD HAVE
ENDED BY MIDNIGHT WITHIN OUR FORECAST AREA.

THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY...WITH A VERY SLOW WARMING
TREND. THEN...THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
ITS SLOW SPEED MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO PREDICT ITS ARRIVAL
TIME...BUT SOMETIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING IS A GOOD
ESTIMATE OF WHEN THE FIRST SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD ARRIVE IN OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES.

AS THE UPPER LOW CRAWLS EAST THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THERE MAY BE A FEW PERIODS WHERE SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR.
THE SPC DAY 4 TO 8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PROVIDES A GOOD EXPLANATION
OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  49  77  49  78 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         47  79  49  80 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  50  80  51  81 /  30   0   0   0
GAGE OK           44  79  47  83 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     48  76  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         51  78  50  77 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 031932
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
232 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Fairly quiet weather is on tap for the remainder of this week and
beginning of the upcoming weekend, with more eventful weather
thereafter.

A strong shortwave visible in water vapor imagery just north of
the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles region will continue to drop to the
south and east this evening and into the overnight, with any
associated showers and thunderstorms likely to remain west of the
forecast area. Cloudiness will diminish toward tomorrow morning as
the wave moves south of the region.

A weak boundary will drop southward through Oklahoma and Arkansas
tomorrow afternoon and evening with a shift to northerly winds and
maybe a couple of degree drop in temperature following its
passage.

High amplitude upper level ridging will begin to build into the
area late this week and into the weekend, bringing above normal
temperatures back to the region. Have continued the trend of
forecasting temperatures that are a few degrees above those
offered by the blended guidance, given the favorable pattern.

For the latter half of the weekend, the ridging will begin to
break down as an expansive upper low approaches from the west.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase late
Saturday night and into Sunday, likely peaking Monday as the low
lifts northeastward into the Northern and Central Plains region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   50  78  46  78 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   50  78  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   50  79  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   46  76  41  78 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   43  73  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   48  72  43  72 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   48  77  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   48  73  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
F10   50  79  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   50  80  49  77 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....22




000
FXUS64 KTSA 031735
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1235 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Periodic low VFR ceilings are possible this afternoon into the
early evening w/ skies then clearing. Northerly winds increase
tomorrow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Light precip ahead of vort max currently rotating through western
OK is expected to remain just west of the forecast area through
late afternoon. This is handled by the current forecast and update
will make minor adjustments for sky cover trends.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  50  78  46 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   72  50  78  47 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   72  50  79  47 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   73  46  76  41 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   68  43  73  40 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   68  48  72  43 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   71  48  77  46 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   71  48  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
F10   72  50  79  47 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   73  50  80  49 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07




000
FXUS64 KTSA 031735
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1235 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Periodic low VFR ceilings are possible this afternoon into the
early evening w/ skies then clearing. Northerly winds increase
tomorrow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Light precip ahead of vort max currently rotating through western
OK is expected to remain just west of the forecast area through
late afternoon. This is handled by the current forecast and update
will make minor adjustments for sky cover trends.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  50  78  46 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   72  50  78  47 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   72  50  79  47 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   73  46  76  41 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   68  43  73  40 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   68  48  72  43 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   71  48  77  46 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   71  48  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
F10   72  50  79  47 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   73  50  80  49 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07




000
FXUS64 KOUN 031733
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1233 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW RADAR ECHOES OVER W OK REPRESENT VIRGA AND PERHAPS SOME
LIGHT SHRA. WHILE SHRA MAY AFFECT SEVERAL SITES IN SW OK/N TX THIS
AFTERNOON...NO SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS ON AVIATION ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TSRA...BUT PROBABILITY IS LOW
AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. WINDS WILL SHIFT THIS AFTERNOON IN NW OK
WITH A WEAK/DISSIPATING FRONT. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL...BUT STILL
RELATIVELY MINOR...WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW TO OUR DISTANT NE STRENGTHENS. CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT
A BRIEF PERIOD OF BR AT KLAW IN THE EARLY MORNING...BUT IN THE
UNLIKELY EVENT THAT IT OCCURS AT ALL...IT SHOULD BE QUITE BRIEF
AND SHALLOW.

CMS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1201 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

UPDATE...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.
INCREASED AFTERNOON HIGHS SOUTHEAST OF I-44. SKY COVER WAS
ADJUSTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

DISCUSSION...
MADE THE CHANGES ABOVE BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE...
AND RADAR TRENDS.

SHOWERS MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

UPDATE...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TODAY ACROSS LOCATIONS WEST OF I-35.
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER TODAY AS WELL. REMOVED MORNING FOG MENTION.

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TODAY. SEVERE POTENTIAL
REMAINS VERY LOW.

LATEST RADARS INDICATED LIGHT ECHOES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND OVER THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AHEAD OF A
MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. APPEARS MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AND SPREAD OUT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST DURING THE
DAY TODAY. BELIEVE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BECOME HEAVIER AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
THUS...INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TODAY IN MANY AREAS. ANY RAINFALL
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND MAINLY UNDER 0.25 INCH.

A FEW STORMS IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY
BE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AS THE MAIN
HAZARD DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH THIS HIGH BASED
ACTIVITY. SMALL HAIL UP TO PENNIES MAY OCCUR AS WELL...BUT HAIL
SIZE SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY...WITH MUCAPE
APPROACHING 800 J/KG AT BEST. THIS ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT THE
OKLAHOMA CITY AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT HIGHEST COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN OVER SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...
INCLUDING THE LAWTON...WICHITA FALLS...AND ALTUS AREAS.

PRODUCTS WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE
AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN SOME TAFS. OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT A FEW TAF SITES
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OK THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
COOL/COLD START THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE FA
AS SHORTWAVE/UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND LIGHT WITH MOST AREAS
ACROSS THE CWA LIKELY REMAINING DRY.

AFTER TODAY... UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO AND AFFECT THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING ACROSS THE AREA.
MEANWHILE... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW AND THEN THE SYSTEM ITSELF AS
IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  49  77  49 /  20  10   0   0
HOBART OK         72  48  79  49 /  70  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  50  80  51 /  50  20   0   0
GAGE OK           71  45  79  48 /  20   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     72  48  76  46 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         75  51  78  51 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 031733
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1233 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW RADAR ECHOES OVER W OK REPRESENT VIRGA AND PERHAPS SOME
LIGHT SHRA. WHILE SHRA MAY AFFECT SEVERAL SITES IN SW OK/N TX THIS
AFTERNOON...NO SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS ON AVIATION ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TSRA...BUT PROBABILITY IS LOW
AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. WINDS WILL SHIFT THIS AFTERNOON IN NW OK
WITH A WEAK/DISSIPATING FRONT. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL...BUT STILL
RELATIVELY MINOR...WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW TO OUR DISTANT NE STRENGTHENS. CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT
A BRIEF PERIOD OF BR AT KLAW IN THE EARLY MORNING...BUT IN THE
UNLIKELY EVENT THAT IT OCCURS AT ALL...IT SHOULD BE QUITE BRIEF
AND SHALLOW.

CMS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1201 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

UPDATE...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.
INCREASED AFTERNOON HIGHS SOUTHEAST OF I-44. SKY COVER WAS
ADJUSTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

DISCUSSION...
MADE THE CHANGES ABOVE BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE...
AND RADAR TRENDS.

SHOWERS MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

UPDATE...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TODAY ACROSS LOCATIONS WEST OF I-35.
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER TODAY AS WELL. REMOVED MORNING FOG MENTION.

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TODAY. SEVERE POTENTIAL
REMAINS VERY LOW.

LATEST RADARS INDICATED LIGHT ECHOES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND OVER THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AHEAD OF A
MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. APPEARS MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AND SPREAD OUT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST DURING THE
DAY TODAY. BELIEVE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BECOME HEAVIER AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
THUS...INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TODAY IN MANY AREAS. ANY RAINFALL
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND MAINLY UNDER 0.25 INCH.

A FEW STORMS IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY
BE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AS THE MAIN
HAZARD DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH THIS HIGH BASED
ACTIVITY. SMALL HAIL UP TO PENNIES MAY OCCUR AS WELL...BUT HAIL
SIZE SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY...WITH MUCAPE
APPROACHING 800 J/KG AT BEST. THIS ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT THE
OKLAHOMA CITY AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT HIGHEST COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN OVER SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...
INCLUDING THE LAWTON...WICHITA FALLS...AND ALTUS AREAS.

PRODUCTS WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE
AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN SOME TAFS. OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT A FEW TAF SITES
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OK THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
COOL/COLD START THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE FA
AS SHORTWAVE/UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND LIGHT WITH MOST AREAS
ACROSS THE CWA LIKELY REMAINING DRY.

AFTER TODAY... UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO AND AFFECT THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING ACROSS THE AREA.
MEANWHILE... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW AND THEN THE SYSTEM ITSELF AS
IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  49  77  49 /  20  10   0   0
HOBART OK         72  48  79  49 /  70  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  50  80  51 /  50  20   0   0
GAGE OK           71  45  79  48 /  20   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     72  48  76  46 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         75  51  78  51 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 031701 AAB
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1201 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.
INCREASED AFTERNOON HIGHS SOUTHEAST OF I-44. SKY COVER WAS
ADJUSTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MADE THE CHANGES ABOVE BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE...
AND RADAR TRENDS.

SHOWERS MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

UPDATE...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TODAY ACROSS LOCATIONS WEST OF I-35.
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER TODAY AS WELL. REMOVED MORNING FOG MENTION.

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TODAY. SEVERE POTENTIAL
REMAINS VERY LOW.

LATEST RADARS INDICATED LIGHT ECHOES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND OVER THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AHEAD OF A
MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. APPEARS MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AND SPREAD OUT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST DURING THE
DAY TODAY. BELIEVE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BECOME HEAVIER AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
THUS...INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TODAY IN MANY AREAS. ANY RAINFALL
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND MAINLY UNDER 0.25 INCH.

A FEW STORMS IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY
BE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AS THE MAIN
HAZARD DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH THIS HIGH BASED
ACTIVITY. SMALL HAIL UP TO PENNIES MAY OCCUR AS WELL...BUT HAIL
SIZE SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY...WITH MUCAPE
APPROACHING 800 J/KG AT BEST. THIS ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT THE
OKLAHOMA CITY AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT HIGHEST COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN OVER SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...
INCLUDING THE LAWTON...WICHITA FALLS...AND ALTUS AREAS.

PRODUCTS WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE
AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN SOME TAFS. OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT A FEW TAF SITES
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OK THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
COOL/COLD START THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE FA
AS SHORTWAVE/UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND LIGHT WITH MOST AREAS
ACROSS THE CWA LIKELY REMAINING DRY.

AFTER TODAY... UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO AND AFFECT THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING ACROSS THE AREA.
MEANWHILE... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW AND THEN THE SYSTEM ITSELF AS
IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  49  77  49 /  20  10   0   0
HOBART OK         72  48  79  49 /  70  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  50  80  51 /  50  20   0   0
GAGE OK           71  45  79  48 /  20   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     72  48  76  46 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         75  51  78  51 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 031701 AAB
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1201 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.
INCREASED AFTERNOON HIGHS SOUTHEAST OF I-44. SKY COVER WAS
ADJUSTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MADE THE CHANGES ABOVE BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE...
AND RADAR TRENDS.

SHOWERS MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

UPDATE...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TODAY ACROSS LOCATIONS WEST OF I-35.
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER TODAY AS WELL. REMOVED MORNING FOG MENTION.

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TODAY. SEVERE POTENTIAL
REMAINS VERY LOW.

LATEST RADARS INDICATED LIGHT ECHOES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND OVER THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AHEAD OF A
MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. APPEARS MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AND SPREAD OUT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST DURING THE
DAY TODAY. BELIEVE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BECOME HEAVIER AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
THUS...INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TODAY IN MANY AREAS. ANY RAINFALL
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND MAINLY UNDER 0.25 INCH.

A FEW STORMS IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY
BE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AS THE MAIN
HAZARD DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH THIS HIGH BASED
ACTIVITY. SMALL HAIL UP TO PENNIES MAY OCCUR AS WELL...BUT HAIL
SIZE SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY...WITH MUCAPE
APPROACHING 800 J/KG AT BEST. THIS ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT THE
OKLAHOMA CITY AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT HIGHEST COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN OVER SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...
INCLUDING THE LAWTON...WICHITA FALLS...AND ALTUS AREAS.

PRODUCTS WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE
AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN SOME TAFS. OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT A FEW TAF SITES
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OK THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
COOL/COLD START THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE FA
AS SHORTWAVE/UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND LIGHT WITH MOST AREAS
ACROSS THE CWA LIKELY REMAINING DRY.

AFTER TODAY... UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO AND AFFECT THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING ACROSS THE AREA.
MEANWHILE... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW AND THEN THE SYSTEM ITSELF AS
IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  49  77  49 /  20  10   0   0
HOBART OK         72  48  79  49 /  70  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  50  80  51 /  50  20   0   0
GAGE OK           71  45  79  48 /  20   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     72  48  76  46 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         75  51  78  51 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 031614
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1114 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Light precip ahead of vort max currently rotating through western
OK is expected to remain just west of the forecast area through
late afternoon. This is handled by the current forecast and update
will make minor adjustments for sky cover trends.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  50  79  46 /  10  10   0   0
FSM   72  50  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   72  49  79  48 /  10  10   0   0
BVO   73  46  77  41 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   68  43  73  40 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   68  47  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   71  48  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   71  48  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
F10   72  50  78  47 /  10  10   0   0
HHW   73  49  80  49 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07




000
FXUS64 KTSA 031614
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1114 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Light precip ahead of vort max currently rotating through western
OK is expected to remain just west of the forecast area through
late afternoon. This is handled by the current forecast and update
will make minor adjustments for sky cover trends.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  50  79  46 /  10  10   0   0
FSM   72  50  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   72  49  79  48 /  10  10   0   0
BVO   73  46  77  41 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   68  43  73  40 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   68  47  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   71  48  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   71  48  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
F10   72  50  78  47 /  10  10   0   0
HHW   73  49  80  49 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07




000
FXUS64 KOUN 031439 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
939 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TODAY ACROSS LOCATIONS WEST OF I-35.
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER TODAY AS WELL. REMOVED MORNING FOG MENTION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TODAY. SEVERE POTENTIAL
REMAINS VERY LOW.

LATEST RADARS INDICATED LIGHT ECHOES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND OVER THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AHEAD OF A
MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. APPEARS MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AND SPREAD OUT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST DURING THE
DAY TODAY. BELIEVE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BECOME HEAVIER AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
THUS...INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TODAY IN MANY AREAS. ANY RAINFALL
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND MAINLY UNDER 0.25 INCH.

A FEW STORMS IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY
BE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AS THE MAIN
HAZARD DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH THIS HIGH BASED
ACTIVITY. SMALL HAIL UP TO PENNIES MAY OCCUR AS WELL...BUT HAIL
SIZE SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY...WITH MUCAPE
APPROACHING 800 J/KG AT BEST. THIS ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT THE
OKLAHOMA CITY AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT HIGHEST COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN OVER SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...
INCLUDING THE LAWTON...WICHITA FALLS...AND ALTUS AREAS.

PRODUCTS WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE
AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN SOME TAFS. OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT A FEW TAF SITES
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OK THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
COOL/COLD START THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE FA
AS SHORTWAVE/UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND LIGHT WITH MOST AREAS
ACROSS THE CWA LIKELY REMAINING DRY.

AFTER TODAY... UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO AND AFFECT THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING ACROSS THE AREA.
MEANWHILE... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW AND THEN THE SYSTEM ITSELF AS
IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  49  77  49 /  20  10   0   0
HOBART OK         72  48  79  49 /  50  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  50  80  51 /  40  20   0   0
GAGE OK           71  45  79  48 /  20   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     72  48  76  46 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  51  78  51 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 031120
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
620 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE
AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN SOME TAFS. OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT A FEW TAF SITES
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OK THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
COOL/COLD START THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE FA
AS SHORTWAVE/UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND LIGHT WITH MOST AREAS
ACROSS THE CWA LIKELY REMAINING DRY.

AFTER TODAY... UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO AND AFFECT THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING ACROSS THE AREA.
MEANWHILE... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW AND THEN THE SYSTEM ITSELF AS
IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  49  77  49 /  10  10   0   0
HOBART OK         72  48  79  49 /  30  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  50  80  51 /  20  20   0   0
GAGE OK           71  45  79  48 /  20   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     72  48  76  46 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  51  78  51 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25/25




000
FXUS64 KTSA 031051
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
551 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Patchy fog could reduce visibilities into the IFR category for a
couple of hours this morning at the northwest Arkansas TAf sites.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all area TAF
sites.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A weak shortwave will move south across the area this afternoon
and evening bringing an increase in mid level cloudiness. Any
precipitation with this system is expected to remain to our west.
A warming trend will take place the rest of the week into the
first part of the weekend as an upper ridge builds over the area.
Saturday looks to be the warmest day of the forecast period with
widespread 80s expected.

An upper low will begin to lift out of the southwest U.S. late
this weekend into early next week. As usual, the details remain
murky this far out, but current indications are that the greatest
coverage of showers and storms in our area will be Monday
afternoon and evening. There will be severe weather potential each
day from Sunday into the middle of next week as it looks like it
will take at least that long for the frontal boundary associated
with this system to clear our area.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...10




000
FXUS64 KTSA 030841
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
341 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A weak shortwave will move south across the area this afternoon
and evening bringing an increase in mid level cloudiness. Any
precipitation with this system is expected to remain to our west.
A warming trend will take place the rest of the week into the
first part of the weekend as an upper ridge builds over the area.
Saturday looks to be the warmest day of the forecast period with
widespread 80s expected.

An upper low will begin to lift out of the southwest U.S. late
this weekend into early next week. As usual, the details remain
murky this far out, but current indications are that the greatest
coverage of showers and storms in our area will be Monday
afternoon and evening. There will be severe weather potential each
day from Sunday into the middle of next week as it looks like it
will take at least that long for the frontal boundary associated
with this system to clear our area.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  50  79  46 /  10  10   0   0
FSM   72  50  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   72  49  79  48 /  10  10   0   0
BVO   73  46  77  41 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   68  43  73  40 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   68  47  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   71  48  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   71  48  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
F10   72  50  78  47 /  10  10   0   0
HHW   73  49  80  49 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....05

PLATE




000
FXUS64 KOUN 030809
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
309 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
COOL/COLD START THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE FA
AS SHORTWAVE/UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND LIGHT WITH MOST AREAS
ACROSS THE CWA LIKELY REMAINING DRY.

AFTER TODAY... UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO AND AFFECT THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING ACROSS THE AREA.
MEANWHILE... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW AND THEN THE SYSTEM ITSELF AS
IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  49  77  49 /  10  10   0   0
HOBART OK         72  48  79  49 /  30  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  50  80  51 /  20  20   0   0
GAGE OK           71  45  79  48 /  20   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     72  48  76  46 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  51  78  51 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25




000
FXUS64 KTSA 030448
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1148 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Skies continue to slowly clear across northwest AR this evening.
Latest hi-res data continues to support fog development across
mainly northwest AR, with at least periodic IFR conditions
between about 09-14z. VFR will prevail after that time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 839 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...

There are more breaks in the cloud cover per recent satellite
trends. WV imagery shows a shortwave trough axis from central MO
to central OK moving east. Subsidence on the back side of this
system may be helping to break up the cloud cover. There may still
be some mid and high cloud from another potent PV max diving south
into Nebraska attm...but a sustained overcast sky is not expected
from this. Thus...am reluctant to adjust low temps very much at
all tonight given recent trends...since it will only take a few
hours for temps to drop when the clouds break.

Lacy

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Low-end VFR ceilings in the 3500-4500 foot range will continue to
clear out this evening. Areas of fog will likely develop across
mainly northwest AR per latest hi-res model soundings, with at
least periodic IFR conditions between about 09-14z. VFR will
prevail after that time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Unseasonably cool conditions this afternoon behind a strong cold
front which has now pushed well south into the northern Gulf of
Mexico. Extensive cloud cover has kept high temperatures in
check, currently running 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this
time year. Low clouds will slowly clear from west to east overnight.
Could still see a few lingering low clouds across far northwest
Arkansas Tuesday morning.

Surface high pressure settles over the region during the day
Tuesday with light winds and mostly sunny skies. Relatively quiet
weather pattern for the next several days, especially for early
May. Another weak boundary/wind shift will move through on
Wednesday however temperatures are still expected to warm into the
upper 70s over much of the area with dry/down-slope flow. Warming
trend continues through the latter part of the work week as
strong upper ridge builds over the central/southern plains.

Upper ridge begins to break down over the weekend as large upper
low shifts northeast into the intermountain west. Shower/thunderstorm
chances return Saturday night into Sunday as initial short wave
ejects ahead of main upper low.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14




000
FXUS64 KOUN 030435
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1135 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...
TAFS 0306/0406Z...
THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH
AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN OKLAHOMA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

AVIATION...
0300/0400 TAFS...

VFR CEILINGS (~5K FEET) AT PNC/OKC/OUN WILL SCATTERED/CLEAR EARLY
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
NORTH. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A COOL...FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
TURN BACK TO SOUTHERLY TOMORROW...LEADING TO A SLOW WARMING
TREND. AGAIN...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TONIGHT
IN FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...WE DO NOT BELIEVE A FROST ADVISORY IS
WARRANTED.

DESPITE THE DRY AIRMASS NEAR THE SURFACE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
LIFT TOMORROW WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO SQUEEZE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS. INSTABILITY WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE WEATHER IS EXTREMELY
UNLIKELY.

AS A LARGE UPPER/MID-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES NEXT
WEEKEND...RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN. IT
IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO TIME THE ARRIVAL OF LARGE SLOW SYSTEMS LIKE
THAT...BUT ITS EFFECTS WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO BE FELT IN
OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH IT IS ALSO
DIFFICULT TO TELL THAT FAR OUT ABOUT THE VARIOUS SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS...THINGS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL NOT COME TOGETHER
FOR ANYTHING MAJOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEVERTHELESS...A FEW
SEVERE STORMS CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  44  71  49  77 /   0  10   0   0
HOBART OK         43  71  47  79 /   0  30  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  46  73  50  80 /   0  10  10   0
GAGE OK           41  71  45  79 /   0  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     42  72  48  77 /   0  10   0   0
DURANT OK         47  72  52  79 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 030139
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
839 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...

There are more breaks in the cloud cover per recent satellite
trends. WV imagery shows a shortwave trough axis from central MO
to central OK moving east. Subsidence on the back side of this
system may be helping to break up the cloud cover. There may still
be some mid and high cloud from another potent PV max diving south
into Nebraska attm...but a sustained overcast sky is not expected
from this. Thus...am reluctant to adjust low temps very much at
all tonight given recent trends...since it will only take a few
hours for temps to drop when the clouds break.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Low-end VFR ceilings in the 3500-4500 foot range will continue to
clear out this evening. Areas of fog will likely develop across
mainly northwest AR per latest hi-res model soundings, with at
least periodic IFR conditions between about 09-14z. VFR will
prevail after that time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Unseasonably cool conditions this afternoon behind a strong cold
front which has now pushed well south into the northern Gulf of
Mexico. Extensive cloud cover has kept high temperatures in
check, currently running 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this
time year. Low clouds will slowly clear from west to east overnight.
Could still see a few lingering low clouds across far northwest
Arkansas Tuesday morning.

Surface high pressure settles over the region during the day
Tuesday with light winds and mostly sunny skies. Relatively quiet
weather pattern for the next several days, especially for early
May. Another weak boundary/wind shift will move through on
Wednesday however temperatures are still expected to warm into the
upper 70s over much of the area with dry/down-slope flow. Warming
trend continues through the latter part of the work week as
strong upper ridge builds over the central/southern plains.

Upper ridge begins to break down over the weekend as large upper
low shifts northeast into the intermountain west. Shower/thunderstorm
chances return Saturday night into Sunday as initial short wave
ejects ahead of main upper low.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   44  70  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   46  72  51  79 /  10  10  10   0
MLC   43  71  50  77 /   0   0  10   0
BVO   40  72  45  77 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   40  67  44  73 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   43  66  49  72 /  10  10   0   0
MKO   42  70  49  77 /   0   0  10   0
MIO   42  70  47  76 /   0  10   0   0
F10   43  72  51  76 /   0   0  10   0
HHW   46  71  50  78 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 030139
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
839 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...

There are more breaks in the cloud cover per recent satellite
trends. WV imagery shows a shortwave trough axis from central MO
to central OK moving east. Subsidence on the back side of this
system may be helping to break up the cloud cover. There may still
be some mid and high cloud from another potent PV max diving south
into Nebraska attm...but a sustained overcast sky is not expected
from this. Thus...am reluctant to adjust low temps very much at
all tonight given recent trends...since it will only take a few
hours for temps to drop when the clouds break.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Low-end VFR ceilings in the 3500-4500 foot range will continue to
clear out this evening. Areas of fog will likely develop across
mainly northwest AR per latest hi-res model soundings, with at
least periodic IFR conditions between about 09-14z. VFR will
prevail after that time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Unseasonably cool conditions this afternoon behind a strong cold
front which has now pushed well south into the northern Gulf of
Mexico. Extensive cloud cover has kept high temperatures in
check, currently running 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this
time year. Low clouds will slowly clear from west to east overnight.
Could still see a few lingering low clouds across far northwest
Arkansas Tuesday morning.

Surface high pressure settles over the region during the day
Tuesday with light winds and mostly sunny skies. Relatively quiet
weather pattern for the next several days, especially for early
May. Another weak boundary/wind shift will move through on
Wednesday however temperatures are still expected to warm into the
upper 70s over much of the area with dry/down-slope flow. Warming
trend continues through the latter part of the work week as
strong upper ridge builds over the central/southern plains.

Upper ridge begins to break down over the weekend as large upper
low shifts northeast into the intermountain west. Shower/thunderstorm
chances return Saturday night into Sunday as initial short wave
ejects ahead of main upper low.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   44  70  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   46  72  51  79 /  10  10  10   0
MLC   43  71  50  77 /   0   0  10   0
BVO   40  72  45  77 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   40  67  44  73 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   43  66  49  72 /  10  10   0   0
MKO   42  70  49  77 /   0   0  10   0
MIO   42  70  47  76 /   0  10   0   0
F10   43  72  51  76 /   0   0  10   0
HHW   46  71  50  78 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30




000
FXUS64 KOUN 022347
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
647 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...
0300/0400 TAFS...

VFR CEILINGS (~5K FEET) AT PNC/OKC/OUN WILL SCATTERED/CLEAR EARLY
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
NORTH. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A COOL...FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
TURN BACK TO SOUTHERLY TOMORROW...LEADING TO A SLOW WARMING
TREND. AGAIN...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TONIGHT
IN FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...WE DO NOT BELIEVE A FROST ADVISORY IS
WARRANTED.

DESPITE THE DRY AIRMASS NEAR THE SURFACE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
LIFT TOMORROW WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO SQUEEZE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS. INSTABILITY WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE WEATHER IS EXTREMELY
UNLIKELY.

AS A LARGE UPPER/MID-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES NEXT
WEEKEND...RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN. IT
IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO TIME THE ARRIVAL OF LARGE SLOW SYSTEMS LIKE
THAT...BUT ITS EFFECTS WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO BE FELT IN
OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH IT IS ALSO
DIFFICULT TO TELL THAT FAR OUT ABOUT THE VARIOUS SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS...THINGS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL NOT COME TOGETHER
FOR ANYTHING MAJOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEVERTHELESS...A FEW
SEVERE STORMS CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  44  71  49  77 /   0  10   0   0
HOBART OK         43  71  47  79 /   0  30  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  46  73  50  80 /   0  10  10   0
GAGE OK           41  71  45  79 /   0  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     42  72  48  77 /   0  10   0   0
DURANT OK         47  72  52  79 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 022347
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
647 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...
0300/0400 TAFS...

VFR CEILINGS (~5K FEET) AT PNC/OKC/OUN WILL SCATTERED/CLEAR EARLY
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
NORTH. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A COOL...FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
TURN BACK TO SOUTHERLY TOMORROW...LEADING TO A SLOW WARMING
TREND. AGAIN...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TONIGHT
IN FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...WE DO NOT BELIEVE A FROST ADVISORY IS
WARRANTED.

DESPITE THE DRY AIRMASS NEAR THE SURFACE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
LIFT TOMORROW WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO SQUEEZE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS. INSTABILITY WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE WEATHER IS EXTREMELY
UNLIKELY.

AS A LARGE UPPER/MID-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES NEXT
WEEKEND...RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN. IT
IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO TIME THE ARRIVAL OF LARGE SLOW SYSTEMS LIKE
THAT...BUT ITS EFFECTS WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO BE FELT IN
OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH IT IS ALSO
DIFFICULT TO TELL THAT FAR OUT ABOUT THE VARIOUS SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS...THINGS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL NOT COME TOGETHER
FOR ANYTHING MAJOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEVERTHELESS...A FEW
SEVERE STORMS CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  44  71  49  77 /   0  10   0   0
HOBART OK         43  71  47  79 /   0  30  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  46  73  50  80 /   0  10  10   0
GAGE OK           41  71  45  79 /   0  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     42  72  48  77 /   0  10   0   0
DURANT OK         47  72  52  79 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 022319
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
619 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Low-end VFR ceilings in the 3500-4500 foot range will continue to
clear out this evening. Areas of fog will likely develop across
mainly northwest AR per latest hi-res model soundings, with at
least periodic IFR conditions between about 09-14z. VFR will
prevail after that time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Unseasonably cool conditions this afternoon behind a strong cold
front which has now pushed well south into the northern Gulf of
Mexico. Extensive cloud cover has kept high temperatures in
check, currently running 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this
time year. Low clouds will slowly clear from west to east overnight.
Could still see a few lingering low clouds across far northwest
Arkansas Tuesday morning.

Surface high pressure settles over the region during the day
Tuesday with light winds and mostly sunny skies. Relatively quiet
weather pattern for the next several days, especially for early
May. Another weak boundary/wind shift will move through on
Wednesday however temperatures are still expected to warm into the
upper 70s over much of the area with dry/down-slope flow. Warming
trend continues through the latter part of the work week as
strong upper ridge builds over the central/southern plains.

Upper ridge begins to break down over the weekend as large upper
low shifts northeast into the intermountain west. Shower/thunderstorm
chances return Saturday night into Sunday as initial short wave
ejects ahead of main upper low.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...14




000
FXUS64 KOUN 022035
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
335 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A COOL...FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
TURN BACK TO SOUTHERLY TOMORROW...LEADING TO A SLOW WARMING
TREND. AGAIN...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TONIGHT
IN FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...WE DO NOT BELIEVE A FROST ADVISORY IS
WARRANTED.

DESPITE THE DRY AIRMASS NEAR THE SURFACE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
LIFT TOMORROW WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO SQUEEZE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS. INSTABILITY WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE WEATHER IS EXTREMELY
UNLIKELY.

AS A LARGE UPPER/MID-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES NEXT
WEEKEND...RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN. IT
IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO TIME THE ARRIVAL OF LARGE SLOW SYSTEMS LIKE
THAT...BUT ITS EFFECTS WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO BE FELT IN
OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH IT IS ALSO
DIFFICULT TO TELL THAT FAR OUT ABOUT THE VARIOUS SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS...THINGS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL NOT COME TOGETHER
FOR ANYTHING MAJOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEVERTHELESS...A FEW
SEVERE STORMS CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  44  71  49  77 /   0  10   0   0
HOBART OK         43  71  47  79 /   0  30  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  46  73  50  80 /   0  10  10   0
GAGE OK           41  71  45  79 /   0  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     42  72  48  77 /   0  10   0   0
DURANT OK         47  72  52  79 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 021951
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
251 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Unseasonably cool conditions this afternoon behind a strong cold
front which has now pushed well south into the northern Gulf of
Mexico. Extensive cloud cover has kept high temperatures in
check, currently running 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this
time year. Low clouds will slowly clear from west to east overnight.
Could still see a few lingering low clouds across far northwest
Arkansas Tuesday morning.

Surface high pressure settles over the region during the day
Tuesday with light winds and mostly sunny skies. Relatively quiet
weather pattern for the next several days, especially for early
May. Another weak boundary/wind shift will move through on
Wednesday however temperatures are still expected to warm into the
upper 70s over much of the area with dry/down-slope flow. Warming
trend continues through the latter part of the work week as
strong upper ridge builds over the central/southern plains.

Upper ridge begins to break down over the weekend as large upper
low shifts northeast into the intermountain west. Shower/thunderstorm
chances return Saturday night into Sunday as initial short wave
ejects ahead of main upper low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   44  70  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   46  72  51  79 /  10  10  10   0
MLC   43  71  50  77 /   0   0  10   0
BVO   40  72  45  77 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   40  67  44  73 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   43  66  49  72 /  10  10   0   0
MKO   42  70  49  77 /   0   0  10   0
MIO   42  70  47  76 /   0  10   0   0
F10   43  72  51  76 /   0   0  10   0
HHW   46  71  50  78 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....12




000
FXUS64 KTSA 021738
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1238 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Varying ceiling heights between 2500ft and 4500ft with a few lower
MVFR ceilings will continue this afternoon across Eastern Oklahoma
and Northwest Arkansas. Late this afternoon into the overnight
hours...VFR ceilings should continue to lift and try to scatter
out from north to south. If ceilings across parts of Northwest
Arkansas scatter/clear out late tonight...some patchy fog could
possibly develop. For now though will continue with scattered VFR
into Tuesday morning for XNA/ROG/FYV. During the day
Tuesday...scattered mid/high clouds and west to northwesterly
winds are forecast.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A weak positively tilted shortwave positioned over Kansas
continued to push south southeast this morning toward Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. Ahead of the shortwave trof
axis...west to southwesterly upper level flow was transporting
scattered rain showers with a few thunderstorms across Central
Texas to far Southeast Oklahoma into Southern/Eastern Arkansas.
Across the rest of Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas...mostly to cloudy conditions and north to northwesterly
winds were common.

This afternoon...the shortwave trof axis is expected to continue
to sag southward across the CWA. This should push the remaining
precip south and east of the CWA during the afternoon hours.
Thus...will continue just slight chance pops for far Southeast
Oklahoma through 18z. For the rest of the CWA...low to mid level
ceilings should remain common over the region through the
afternoon hours before trying to scatter out behind the trof axis
this evening and overnight.

Continued cloud cover along with north to northwesterly surface
flow should keep temperatures below the seasonal average again.
High temps this afternoon look to be close to yesterdays highs
with 60s forecast. Morning update will be to add minor tweaks to
hourly temp/dewpoint/wind grids and adjust sky/pop/wx grids based
on the mentioned above. The rest ongoing forecast seems to be
handling well at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   44  71  51  79 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   46  73  51  79 /  10  10  10   0
MLC   43  72  50  77 /   0   0  10   0
BVO   40  73  45  78 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   37  68  44  73 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   41  67  49  72 /  10  10   0   0
MKO   42  71  49  77 /   0   0  10   0
MIO   40  71  47  76 /   0  10   0   0
F10   43  73  51  77 /   0   0  10   0
HHW   46  72  50  78 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20




000
FXUS64 KTSA 021738
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1238 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Varying ceiling heights between 2500ft and 4500ft with a few lower
MVFR ceilings will continue this afternoon across Eastern Oklahoma
and Northwest Arkansas. Late this afternoon into the overnight
hours...VFR ceilings should continue to lift and try to scatter
out from north to south. If ceilings across parts of Northwest
Arkansas scatter/clear out late tonight...some patchy fog could
possibly develop. For now though will continue with scattered VFR
into Tuesday morning for XNA/ROG/FYV. During the day
Tuesday...scattered mid/high clouds and west to northwesterly
winds are forecast.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A weak positively tilted shortwave positioned over Kansas
continued to push south southeast this morning toward Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. Ahead of the shortwave trof
axis...west to southwesterly upper level flow was transporting
scattered rain showers with a few thunderstorms across Central
Texas to far Southeast Oklahoma into Southern/Eastern Arkansas.
Across the rest of Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas...mostly to cloudy conditions and north to northwesterly
winds were common.

This afternoon...the shortwave trof axis is expected to continue
to sag southward across the CWA. This should push the remaining
precip south and east of the CWA during the afternoon hours.
Thus...will continue just slight chance pops for far Southeast
Oklahoma through 18z. For the rest of the CWA...low to mid level
ceilings should remain common over the region through the
afternoon hours before trying to scatter out behind the trof axis
this evening and overnight.

Continued cloud cover along with north to northwesterly surface
flow should keep temperatures below the seasonal average again.
High temps this afternoon look to be close to yesterdays highs
with 60s forecast. Morning update will be to add minor tweaks to
hourly temp/dewpoint/wind grids and adjust sky/pop/wx grids based
on the mentioned above. The rest ongoing forecast seems to be
handling well at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   44  71  51  79 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   46  73  51  79 /  10  10  10   0
MLC   43  72  50  77 /   0   0  10   0
BVO   40  73  45  78 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   37  68  44  73 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   41  67  49  72 /  10  10   0   0
MKO   42  71  49  77 /   0   0  10   0
MIO   40  71  47  76 /   0  10   0   0
F10   43  73  51  77 /   0   0  10   0
HHW   46  72  50  78 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20




000
FXUS64 KOUN 021730
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
A LAYER OF CLOUDS WITH BASES AT APPROXIMATELY 3000 TO 5000 FEET
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. WHILE BR/FG CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY WITH THE LARGE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT. SO...IF IT
DOES HAPPEN...IT SHOULD BE VERY SHALLOW AND RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED
AROUND SUNRISE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
DROP OFF TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. S TO SW WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT OR DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...BUT SPEEDS
WILL BE MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS. SOME SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAY OCCUR
OVER W OK TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AND BEYOND.

CMS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

UPDATE...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. REMOVED RAIN
CHANCES IN SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

BASED ON LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND HRRR MODEL
GUIDANCE...THINK LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOW TO ERODE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF I-35. THUS...INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. THIS MAY LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING...HOWEVER DID NOT ALTER
AFTERNOON HIGHS AS THEY SEEMED TO BE REASONABLE.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
02/12Z TAF DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PRIMARILY
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND THROUGH 21-00Z BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE MOST TERMINALS. RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WIND EXPECTED WESTERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
ZONE OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED TO KEEP BAND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS GOING THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
TEXAS. MOST IF NOT ALL SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF RED RIVER BUT WILL
INCLUDE SOME LOW-MID CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...OVERALL DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT...WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATEST FORECAST DATA ON
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST. RIGHT NOW ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE KEEPS
TEMPS WARM ENOUGH AND INCREASES SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SUFFICIENTLY
TO LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL.

UPPER LOW EXITING MANITOBA AND ENTERING NORTHERN PLAINS PROGD TO
SINK SOUTHWARD AND TRAVERSE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHERN TEXAS TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING. WITH MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS/MOISTENING WE WILL KEEP POPS GOING ACROSS WESTERN
THIRD OR SO OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WILL PROBABLY BE
HARD TO GET ANY THUNDER...BUT WITH FAIRLY COLD CORE OF
SYSTEM...ENOUGH GRAUPEL GROWTH MAY BE REALIZED FOR A FEW
DISCHARGES SO WILL MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDER.

WARMING TREND EXPECTED LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND
ALONG WITH GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE. WITH CENTRAL U.S. OMEGA
BLOCK DEVELOPMENT MID TO LATE WEEK...SYNOPTIC PATTERN NOT
CONDUCIVE TO SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF WEEKEND SYSTEM
WITH PROLONGED COASTAL REGION LOWER LEVEL RIDGING. GREATER
MOISTURE RETURN PROGD LATE NEXT WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD
INCREASE THREAT FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORM ACTIVITY AND HEAVY RAIN
EVENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  64  44  71  49 /   0   0  10   0
HOBART OK         66  42  70  48 /   0   0  30  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  46  72  50 /   0   0  10  20
GAGE OK           65  40  70  44 /   0   0  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     63  41  72  48 /   0   0  10   0
DURANT OK         67  47  72  52 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 021536 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1036 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. REMOVED RAIN
CHANCES IN SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

BASED ON LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND HRRR MODEL
GUIDANCE...THINK LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOW TO ERODE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF I-35. THUS...INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. THIS MAY LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING...HOWEVER DID NOT ALTER
AFTERNOON HIGHS AS THEY SEEMED TO BE REASONABLE.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
02/12Z TAF DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PRIMARILY
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND THROUGH 21-00Z BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE MOST TERMINALS. RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WIND EXPECTED WESTERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
ZONE OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED TO KEEP BAND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS GOING THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
TEXAS. MOST IF NOT ALL SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF RED RIVER BUT WILL
INCLUDE SOME LOW-MID CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...OVERALL DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT...WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATEST FORECAST DATA ON
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST. RIGHT NOW ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE KEEPS
TEMPS WARM ENOUGH AND INCREASES SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SUFFICIENTLY
TO LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL.

UPPER LOW EXITING MANITOBA AND ENTERING NORTHERN PLAINS PROGD TO
SINK SOUTHWARD AND TRAVERSE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHERN TEXAS TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING. WITH MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS/MOISTENING WE WILL KEEP POPS GOING ACROSS WESTERN
THIRD OR SO OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WILL PROBABLY BE
HARD TO GET ANY THUNDER...BUT WITH FAIRLY COLD CORE OF
SYSTEM...ENOUGH GRAUPEL GROWTH MAY BE REALIZED FOR A FEW
DISCHARGES SO WILL MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDER.

WARMING TREND EXPECTED LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND
ALONG WITH GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE. WITH CENTRAL U.S. OMEGA
BLOCK DEVELOPMENT MID TO LATE WEEK...SYNOPTIC PATTERN NOT
CONDUCIVE TO SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF WEEKEND SYSTEM
WITH PROLONGED COASTAL REGION LOWER LEVEL RIDGING. GREATER
MOISTURE RETURN PROGD LATE NEXT WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD
INCREASE THREAT FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORM ACTIVITY AND HEAVY RAIN
EVENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  64  44  71  49 /   0   0  10   0
HOBART OK         66  42  70  48 /   0   0  30  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  46  72  50 /   0   0  10  20
GAGE OK           65  40  70  44 /   0   0  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     63  41  72  48 /   0   0  10   0
DURANT OK         67  47  72  52 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 021451
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
951 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
A weak positively tilted shortwave positioned over Kansas
continued to push south southeast this morning toward Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. Ahead of the shortwave trof
axis...west to southwesterly upper level flow was transporting
scattered rain showers with a few thunderstorms across Central
Texas to far Southeast Oklahoma into Southern/Eastern Arkansas.
Across the rest of Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas...mostly to cloudy conditions and north to northwesterly
winds were common.

This afternoon...the shortwave trof axis is expected to continue
to sag southward across the CWA. This should push the remaining
precip south and east of the CWA during the afternoon hours.
Thus...will continue just slight chance pops for far Southeast
Oklahoma through 18z. For the rest of the CWA...low to mid level
ceilings should remain common over the region through the
afternoon hours before trying to scatter out behind the trof axis
this evening and overnight.

Continued cloud cover along with north to northwesterly surface
flow should keep temperatures below the seasonal average again.
High temps this afternoon look to be close to yesterdays highs
with 60s to near 70 degrees from north to south forecast. Morning
update will be to add minor tweaks to hourly temp/dewpoint/wind
grids and adjust sky/pop/wx grids based on the mentioned above.
The rest ongoing forecast seems to be handling well at this time.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  45  71  50 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   70  48  72  50 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   67  44  72  50 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   64  41  72  46 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   62  38  67  43 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   62  42  66  48 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   66  45  71  48 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   61  41  72  48 /  10   0   0   0
F10   65  46  72  51 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   70  48  72  50 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....12




000
FXUS64 KOUN 021131
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
631 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
02/12Z TAF DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PRIMARILY
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND THROUGH 21-00Z BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE MOST TERMINALS. RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WIND EXPECTED WESTERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
ZONE OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED TO KEEP BAND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS GOING THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
TEXAS. MOST IF NOT ALL SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF RED RIVER BUT WILL
INCLUDE SOME LOW-MID CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...OVERALL DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT...WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATEST FORECAST DATA ON
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST. RIGHT NOW ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE KEEPS
TEMPS WARM ENOUGH AND INCREASES SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SUFFICIENTLY
TO LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL.

UPPER LOW EXITING MANITOBA AND ENTERING NORTHERN PLAINS PROGD TO
SINK SOUTHWARD AND TRAVERSE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHERN TEXAS TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING. WITH MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS/MOISTENING WE WILL KEEP POPS GOING ACROSS WESTERN
THIRD OR SO OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WILL PROBABLY BE
HARD TO GET ANY THUNDER...BUT WITH FAIRLY COLD CORE OF
SYSTEM...ENOUGH GRAUPEL GROWTH MAY BE REALIZED FOR A FEW
DISCHARGES SO WILL MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDER.

WARMING TREND EXPECTED LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND
ALONG WITH GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE. WITH CENTRAL U.S. OMEGA
BLOCK DEVELOPMENT MID TO LATE WEEK...SYNOPTIC PATTERN NOT
CONDUCIVE TO SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF WEEKEND SYSTEM
WITH PROLONGED COASTAL REGION LOWER LEVEL RIDGING. GREATER
MOISTURE RETURN PROGD LATE NEXT WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD
INCREASE THREAT FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORM ACTIVITY AND HEAVY RAIN
EVENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  64  44  71  49 /   0   0  10   0
HOBART OK         66  42  70  48 /  10   0  30  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  46  72  50 /  10   0  10  20
GAGE OK           65  40  70  44 /   0   0  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     63  41  72  48 /  10   0  10   0
DURANT OK         67  47  72  52 /  30   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/11/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 021131
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
631 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
02/12Z TAF DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PRIMARILY
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND THROUGH 21-00Z BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE MOST TERMINALS. RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WIND EXPECTED WESTERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
ZONE OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED TO KEEP BAND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS GOING THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
TEXAS. MOST IF NOT ALL SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF RED RIVER BUT WILL
INCLUDE SOME LOW-MID CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...OVERALL DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT...WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATEST FORECAST DATA ON
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST. RIGHT NOW ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE KEEPS
TEMPS WARM ENOUGH AND INCREASES SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SUFFICIENTLY
TO LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL.

UPPER LOW EXITING MANITOBA AND ENTERING NORTHERN PLAINS PROGD TO
SINK SOUTHWARD AND TRAVERSE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHERN TEXAS TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING. WITH MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS/MOISTENING WE WILL KEEP POPS GOING ACROSS WESTERN
THIRD OR SO OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WILL PROBABLY BE
HARD TO GET ANY THUNDER...BUT WITH FAIRLY COLD CORE OF
SYSTEM...ENOUGH GRAUPEL GROWTH MAY BE REALIZED FOR A FEW
DISCHARGES SO WILL MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDER.

WARMING TREND EXPECTED LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND
ALONG WITH GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE. WITH CENTRAL U.S. OMEGA
BLOCK DEVELOPMENT MID TO LATE WEEK...SYNOPTIC PATTERN NOT
CONDUCIVE TO SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF WEEKEND SYSTEM
WITH PROLONGED COASTAL REGION LOWER LEVEL RIDGING. GREATER
MOISTURE RETURN PROGD LATE NEXT WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD
INCREASE THREAT FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORM ACTIVITY AND HEAVY RAIN
EVENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  64  44  71  49 /   0   0  10   0
HOBART OK         66  42  70  48 /  10   0  30  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  46  72  50 /  10   0  10  20
GAGE OK           65  40  70  44 /   0   0  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     63  41  72  48 /  10   0  10   0
DURANT OK         67  47  72  52 /  30   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/11/11




000
FXUS64 KTSA 021130
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
630 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Flight conditions are highly variable early this morning, but the
trend will be for MVFR ceilings for the first few hours at the
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas terminals, with some
ceilings as low as IFR at times in northwest Arkansas. Ceilings
should lift to VFR by midday, with VFR conditions then expected to
prevail for the rest of the forecast period. If skies clear
tonight, some patchy fog may develop, but the confidence is too
low to include in the TAF`s at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Upper system centered to the north pushing its way through the plains
this morning. Will keep pops confined to the east and southeast through the
morning...with slightly higher chances across far southeast Oklahoma for
locations near the Red River. Once this feature clears the area...ridging
out to west will slowly translate to central United States...while
at the same time one low pressure system organizes across the east
and one to the west. This will result in a period of settled weather
across the plains...one that will continue for the week and will
offer afternoon temperatures close to climatological averages. By
the latter half of this upcoming weekend...the upper pattern
starts to become more progressive...and the upper flow will
transition to more southwesterly as the upper low to the west
approaches. Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase
at that time...however moisture return may come into
question...which would impact areal coverage of rain/thunder...along
with severe potential.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05




000
FXUS64 KTSA 021130
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
630 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Flight conditions are highly variable early this morning, but the
trend will be for MVFR ceilings for the first few hours at the
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas terminals, with some
ceilings as low as IFR at times in northwest Arkansas. Ceilings
should lift to VFR by midday, with VFR conditions then expected to
prevail for the rest of the forecast period. If skies clear
tonight, some patchy fog may develop, but the confidence is too
low to include in the TAF`s at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Upper system centered to the north pushing its way through the plains
this morning. Will keep pops confined to the east and southeast through the
morning...with slightly higher chances across far southeast Oklahoma for
locations near the Red River. Once this feature clears the area...ridging
out to west will slowly translate to central United States...while
at the same time one low pressure system organizes across the east
and one to the west. This will result in a period of settled weather
across the plains...one that will continue for the week and will
offer afternoon temperatures close to climatological averages. By
the latter half of this upcoming weekend...the upper pattern
starts to become more progressive...and the upper flow will
transition to more southwesterly as the upper low to the west
approaches. Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase
at that time...however moisture return may come into
question...which would impact areal coverage of rain/thunder...along
with severe potential.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05




000
FXUS64 KOUN 020906
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
406 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
ZONE OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED TO KEEP BAND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS GOING THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
TEXAS. MOST IF NOT ALL SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF RED RIVER BUT WILL
INCLUDE SOME LOW-MID CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...OVERALL DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT...WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATEST FORECAST DATA ON
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST. RIGHT NOW ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE KEEPS
TEMPS WARM ENOUGH AND INCREASES SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SUFFICIENTLY
TO LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL.

UPPER LOW EXITING MANITOBA AND ENTERING NORTHERN PLAINS PROGD TO
SINK SOUTHWARD AND TRAVERSE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHERN TEXAS TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING. WITH MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS/MOISTENING WE WILL KEEP POPS GOING ACROSS WESTERN
THIRD OR SO OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WILL PROBABLY BE
HARD TO GET ANY THUNDER...BUT WITH FAIRLY COLD CORE OF
SYSTEM...ENOUGH GRAUPEL GROWTH MAY BE REALIZED FOR A FEW
DISCHARGES SO WILL MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDER.

WARMING TREND EXPECTED LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND
ALONG WITH GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE. WITH CENTRAL U.S. OMEGA
BLOCK DEVELOPMENT MID TO LATE WEEK...SYNOPTIC PATTERN NOT
CONDUCIVE TO SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF WEEKEND SYSTEM
WITH PROLONGED COASTAL REGION LOWER LEVEL RIDGING. GREATER
MOISTURE RETURN PROGD LATE NEXT WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD
INCREASE THREAT FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORM ACTIVITY AND HEAVY RAIN
EVENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  64  44  71  49 /   0   0  10   0
HOBART OK         66  42  70  48 /   0   0  30  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  46  72  50 /  10   0  10  20
GAGE OK           65  40  70  44 /   0   0  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     63  41  72  48 /   0   0  10   0
DURANT OK         67  47  72  52 /  30   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/11




000
FXUS64 KTSA 020834
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
334 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Upper system centered to the north pushing its way through the plains
this morning. Will keep pops confined to the east and southeast through the
morning...with slightly higher chances across far southeast Oklahoma for
locations near the Red River. Once this feature clears the area...ridging
out to west will slowly translate to central United States...while
at the same time one low pressure system organizes across the east
and one to the west. This will result in a period of settled weather
across the plains...one that will continue for the week and will
offer afternoon temperatures close to climatological averages. By
the latter half of this upcoming weekend...the upper pattern
starts to become more progressive...and the upper flow will
transition to more southwesterly as the upper low to the west
approaches. Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase
at that time...however moisture return may come into
question...which would impact areal coverage of rain/thunder...along
with severe potential.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  45  71  50 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   68  48  72  50 /  20   0   0   0
MLC   67  44  72  50 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   64  41  72  46 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   62  38  67  43 /  20   0   0   0
BYV   62  42  66  48 /  20   0   0   0
MKO   66  45  71  48 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   61  41  72  48 /  20   0   0   0
F10   65  46  72  51 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   70  48  72  50 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....23




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