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000
FXUS64 KTSA 201033
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
533 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS OR VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS
AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KMLC. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR
THUNDER AT KTUL AND KRVS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AS ACTIVITY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. THE MAV AND MET BOTH HIT ON IFR FOG AT KFYV AND
KXNA FOR LATE TONIGHT WILL INCLUDE AT KFYV TAF WILL DROP KXNA
INTO THE IFR CAT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDDAY. QUIET WEATHER
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN PREVAIL FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD.

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN UPPER TROF
WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THIS SYSTEM AND WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT
WEEKEND. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10





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000
FXUS64 KOUN 200933
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
433 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN SCATTERED WAA SHOWERS OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS EAST OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW
OVER NM AND WEST TEXAS LATE TODAY. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS ACROSS
AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE-35 THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT APPEARS
THAT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS SHOULD STAY
EAST OF CWA. WEAK FRONT PROGD TO STALL NEAR INTERSTATE-40 THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE EFFECT EXPECTED OTHER THAN A WIND
SHIFT...WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ON BOTH SIDES OF FRONT. FRONT
LIFTS BACK NORTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A COUPLE OF MODELS
DEVELOPING SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF RETREATING
FRONT. POPS WILL NOT BE ADDED THIS PACKAGE WITH MEAN RIDGE
POSITION.

LONGWAVE TROUGH STILL PROGD TO MOVE OVER CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY MID-WEEK...YIELDING POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO KEEP MORE ENERGY AND COLDER TEMPS
ALOFT FARTHER NORTH AND DECREASING QPF OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. POPS WERE LOWERED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE-40 AND ALSO WITH
TREND OF A FASTER PROGRESSION OF TROUGH...POPS WERE DECREASED OR
REMOVED ALTOGETHER THURSDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARMING
TREND AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  57  80  57 /  10   0  10  10
HOBART OK         82  58  81  57 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  58  82  57 /  10   0  10  10
GAGE OK           79  53  79  53 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     78  54  78  54 /  10   0  10  10
DURANT OK         80  58  82  57 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 200933
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
433 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN SCATTERED WAA SHOWERS OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS EAST OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW
OVER NM AND WEST TEXAS LATE TODAY. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS ACROSS
AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE-35 THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT APPEARS
THAT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS SHOULD STAY
EAST OF CWA. WEAK FRONT PROGD TO STALL NEAR INTERSTATE-40 THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE EFFECT EXPECTED OTHER THAN A WIND
SHIFT...WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ON BOTH SIDES OF FRONT. FRONT
LIFTS BACK NORTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A COUPLE OF MODELS
DEVELOPING SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF RETREATING
FRONT. POPS WILL NOT BE ADDED THIS PACKAGE WITH MEAN RIDGE
POSITION.

LONGWAVE TROUGH STILL PROGD TO MOVE OVER CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY MID-WEEK...YIELDING POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO KEEP MORE ENERGY AND COLDER TEMPS
ALOFT FARTHER NORTH AND DECREASING QPF OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. POPS WERE LOWERED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE-40 AND ALSO WITH
TREND OF A FASTER PROGRESSION OF TROUGH...POPS WERE DECREASED OR
REMOVED ALTOGETHER THURSDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARMING
TREND AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  57  80  57 /  10   0  10  10
HOBART OK         82  58  81  57 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  58  82  57 /  10   0  10  10
GAGE OK           79  53  79  53 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     78  54  78  54 /  10   0  10  10
DURANT OK         80  58  82  57 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 200933
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
433 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN SCATTERED WAA SHOWERS OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS EAST OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW
OVER NM AND WEST TEXAS LATE TODAY. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS ACROSS
AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE-35 THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT APPEARS
THAT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS SHOULD STAY
EAST OF CWA. WEAK FRONT PROGD TO STALL NEAR INTERSTATE-40 THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE EFFECT EXPECTED OTHER THAN A WIND
SHIFT...WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ON BOTH SIDES OF FRONT. FRONT
LIFTS BACK NORTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A COUPLE OF MODELS
DEVELOPING SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF RETREATING
FRONT. POPS WILL NOT BE ADDED THIS PACKAGE WITH MEAN RIDGE
POSITION.

LONGWAVE TROUGH STILL PROGD TO MOVE OVER CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY MID-WEEK...YIELDING POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO KEEP MORE ENERGY AND COLDER TEMPS
ALOFT FARTHER NORTH AND DECREASING QPF OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. POPS WERE LOWERED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE-40 AND ALSO WITH
TREND OF A FASTER PROGRESSION OF TROUGH...POPS WERE DECREASED OR
REMOVED ALTOGETHER THURSDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARMING
TREND AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  57  80  57 /  10   0  10  10
HOBART OK         82  58  81  57 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  58  82  57 /  10   0  10  10
GAGE OK           79  53  79  53 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     78  54  78  54 /  10   0  10  10
DURANT OK         80  58  82  57 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 200933
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
433 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN SCATTERED WAA SHOWERS OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS EAST OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW
OVER NM AND WEST TEXAS LATE TODAY. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS ACROSS
AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE-35 THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT APPEARS
THAT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS SHOULD STAY
EAST OF CWA. WEAK FRONT PROGD TO STALL NEAR INTERSTATE-40 THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE EFFECT EXPECTED OTHER THAN A WIND
SHIFT...WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ON BOTH SIDES OF FRONT. FRONT
LIFTS BACK NORTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A COUPLE OF MODELS
DEVELOPING SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF RETREATING
FRONT. POPS WILL NOT BE ADDED THIS PACKAGE WITH MEAN RIDGE
POSITION.

LONGWAVE TROUGH STILL PROGD TO MOVE OVER CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY MID-WEEK...YIELDING POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO KEEP MORE ENERGY AND COLDER TEMPS
ALOFT FARTHER NORTH AND DECREASING QPF OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. POPS WERE LOWERED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE-40 AND ALSO WITH
TREND OF A FASTER PROGRESSION OF TROUGH...POPS WERE DECREASED OR
REMOVED ALTOGETHER THURSDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARMING
TREND AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  57  80  57 /  10   0  10  10
HOBART OK         82  58  81  57 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  58  82  57 /  10   0  10  10
GAGE OK           79  53  79  53 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     78  54  78  54 /  10   0  10  10
DURANT OK         80  58  82  57 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/11




000
FXUS64 KTSA 200923
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
423 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDDAY. QUIET WEATHER
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN PREVAIL FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD.

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN UPPER TROF
WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THIS SYSTEM AND WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT
WEEKEND. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  56  77  54 /  20  10  10  10
FSM   76  56  78  52 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   77  56  78  53 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   78  50  76  50 /  20  10  10  10
FYV   71  47  73  44 /  20  10   0  10
BYV   73  48  72  44 /  20  10   0   0
MKO   76  56  77  52 /  20  10  10  10
MIO   73  47  73  47 /  20   0   0  10
F10   77  57  77  53 /  20  10  10  10
HHW   78  55  78  53 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....05

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KTSA 200923
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
423 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDDAY. QUIET WEATHER
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN PREVAIL FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD.

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN UPPER TROF
WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THIS SYSTEM AND WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT
WEEKEND. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  56  77  54 /  20  10  10  10
FSM   76  56  78  52 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   77  56  78  53 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   78  50  76  50 /  20  10  10  10
FYV   71  47  73  44 /  20  10   0  10
BYV   73  48  72  44 /  20  10   0   0
MKO   76  56  77  52 /  20  10  10  10
MIO   73  47  73  47 /  20   0   0  10
F10   77  57  77  53 /  20  10  10  10
HHW   78  55  78  53 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....05

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KTSA 200923
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
423 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDDAY. QUIET WEATHER
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN PREVAIL FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD.

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN UPPER TROF
WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THIS SYSTEM AND WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT
WEEKEND. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  56  77  54 /  20  10  10  10
FSM   76  56  78  52 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   77  56  78  53 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   78  50  76  50 /  20  10  10  10
FYV   71  47  73  44 /  20  10   0  10
BYV   73  48  72  44 /  20  10   0   0
MKO   76  56  77  52 /  20  10  10  10
MIO   73  47  73  47 /  20   0   0  10
F10   77  57  77  53 /  20  10  10  10
HHW   78  55  78  53 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....05

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KTSA 200923
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
423 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDDAY. QUIET WEATHER
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN PREVAIL FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD.

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN UPPER TROF
WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THIS SYSTEM AND WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT
WEEKEND. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  56  77  54 /  20  10  10  10
FSM   76  56  78  52 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   77  56  78  53 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   78  50  76  50 /  20  10  10  10
FYV   71  47  73  44 /  20  10   0  10
BYV   73  48  72  44 /  20  10   0   0
MKO   76  56  77  52 /  20  10  10  10
MIO   73  47  73  47 /  20   0   0  10
F10   77  57  77  53 /  20  10  10  10
HHW   78  55  78  53 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....05

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KTSA 200454
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1154 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAINFALL... WITH
PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM AT NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES THIS MORNING. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES DURING THE MORNING AS
WELL. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND WERE MOVING
EASTWARD ALONG THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS BORDER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION AND A 20KT LLJ SETS UP OVER
THE CWA...AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING WITHIN WEST
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. LATEST LOCAL IN-HOUSE MODEL RUNS
AND ALSO THE HRRR HAVE BEEN INDICATING A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF ANY PRECIP THAT FORMS OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM SHOWS
THE LLJ DEVELOPING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL. THUS...HAVE
EXTENDED POPS SOUTHWARD AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
WELL...WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY AS PRECIP DEVELOPS
AND THUS KEEPING TEMPS WARMER OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 200454
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1154 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAINFALL... WITH
PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM AT NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES THIS MORNING. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES DURING THE MORNING AS
WELL. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND WERE MOVING
EASTWARD ALONG THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS BORDER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION AND A 20KT LLJ SETS UP OVER
THE CWA...AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING WITHIN WEST
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. LATEST LOCAL IN-HOUSE MODEL RUNS
AND ALSO THE HRRR HAVE BEEN INDICATING A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF ANY PRECIP THAT FORMS OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM SHOWS
THE LLJ DEVELOPING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL. THUS...HAVE
EXTENDED POPS SOUTHWARD AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
WELL...WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY AS PRECIP DEVELOPS
AND THUS KEEPING TEMPS WARMER OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 200208
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
908 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND WERE MOVING
EASTWARD ALONG THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS BORDER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION AND A 20KT LLJ SETS UP OVER
THE CWA...AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING WITHIN WEST
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. LATEST LOCAL IN-HOUSE MODEL RUNS
AND ALSO THE HRRR HAVE BEEN INDICATING A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF ANY PRECIP THAT FORMS OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM SHOWS
THE LLJ DEVELOPING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL. THUS...HAVE
EXTENDED POPS SOUTHWARD AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
WELL...WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY AS PRECIP DEVELOPS
AND THUS KEEPING TEMPS WARMER OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  78  56  79 /  30  20  10  10
FSM   51  75  55  77 /   0  20  10  10
MLC   53  77  56  79 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   53  78  51  77 /  30  20  10  10
FYV   49  73  47  73 /  20  20  10  10
BYV   50  72  48  72 /  20  20  10   0
MKO   52  77  55  78 /  20  20  10  10
MIO   53  74  51  75 /  30  20  10   0
F10   54  78  57  78 /  20  20  10  10
HHW   52  78  56  80 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20






000
FXUS64 KTSA 200208
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
908 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND WERE MOVING
EASTWARD ALONG THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS BORDER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION AND A 20KT LLJ SETS UP OVER
THE CWA...AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING WITHIN WEST
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. LATEST LOCAL IN-HOUSE MODEL RUNS
AND ALSO THE HRRR HAVE BEEN INDICATING A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF ANY PRECIP THAT FORMS OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM SHOWS
THE LLJ DEVELOPING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL. THUS...HAVE
EXTENDED POPS SOUTHWARD AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
WELL...WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY AS PRECIP DEVELOPS
AND THUS KEEPING TEMPS WARMER OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  78  56  79 /  30  20  10  10
FSM   51  75  55  77 /   0  20  10  10
MLC   53  77  56  79 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   53  78  51  77 /  30  20  10  10
FYV   49  73  47  73 /  20  20  10  10
BYV   50  72  48  72 /  20  20  10   0
MKO   52  77  55  78 /  20  20  10  10
MIO   53  74  51  75 /  30  20  10   0
F10   54  78  57  78 /  20  20  10  10
HHW   52  78  56  80 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20





000
FXUS64 KOUN 192315
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
615 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
DIFFICULT LOWER CLOUD FORECAST TONIGHT. WILL START WITH
SOME SCATTERED 4-5KFT THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CEILINGS AT THIS HEIGHT OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS IN NC/C OK LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING... BUT CHANCES AT THIS POINT REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE TAF. A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL WORK SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL APPROACH I-40 CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TONIGHT...SEVERAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR...SUGGESTED A
LIGHT QPF SIGNAL THAT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR NORTHEAST OF A ALVA TO WEATHERFORD
TO ADA LINE. THIS SEEMED REASONABLE DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND THE APPROACH OF A MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE...SO
KEPT 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES IN THESE AREAS. FIRST DEVELOPMENT
MAY OCCUR NEAR ENID AND PONCA CITY SOMEWHERE IN THE 7 TO 11 PM
TIME FRAME...THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
OKLAHOMA CITY METRO COULD BE AFFECTED AFTER 2 AM.

SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR...BUT NOT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY MORNING...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
LINGER NEAR A MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS NEAR I-40...MAINLY
EAST OF OF EL RENO.

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...THOUGH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON APPEARS TO WARM AND RATHER HUMID FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THINK CAPPING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED IF A ONE TO
TWO STORMS FORMED NEARLY ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY AS A WEAK RIDGE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODELS SEEMED TO BE
HINTING AT PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION WITH MUCH OF RAIN
OCCURRING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. NO SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE...
THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE DRY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  81  57  80 /  20  20  10  10
HOBART OK         56  83  58  81 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  57  83  58  83 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           52  80  51  80 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  53  79 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         52  80  58  81 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 192315
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
615 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
DIFFICULT LOWER CLOUD FORECAST TONIGHT. WILL START WITH
SOME SCATTERED 4-5KFT THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CEILINGS AT THIS HEIGHT OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS IN NC/C OK LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING... BUT CHANCES AT THIS POINT REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE TAF. A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL WORK SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL APPROACH I-40 CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TONIGHT...SEVERAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR...SUGGESTED A
LIGHT QPF SIGNAL THAT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR NORTHEAST OF A ALVA TO WEATHERFORD
TO ADA LINE. THIS SEEMED REASONABLE DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND THE APPROACH OF A MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE...SO
KEPT 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES IN THESE AREAS. FIRST DEVELOPMENT
MAY OCCUR NEAR ENID AND PONCA CITY SOMEWHERE IN THE 7 TO 11 PM
TIME FRAME...THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
OKLAHOMA CITY METRO COULD BE AFFECTED AFTER 2 AM.

SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR...BUT NOT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY MORNING...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
LINGER NEAR A MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS NEAR I-40...MAINLY
EAST OF OF EL RENO.

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...THOUGH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON APPEARS TO WARM AND RATHER HUMID FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THINK CAPPING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED IF A ONE TO
TWO STORMS FORMED NEARLY ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY AS A WEAK RIDGE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODELS SEEMED TO BE
HINTING AT PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION WITH MUCH OF RAIN
OCCURRING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. NO SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE...
THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE DRY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  81  57  80 /  20  20  10  10
HOBART OK         56  83  58  81 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  57  83  58  83 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           52  80  51  80 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  53  79 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         52  80  58  81 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 192315
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
615 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
DIFFICULT LOWER CLOUD FORECAST TONIGHT. WILL START WITH
SOME SCATTERED 4-5KFT THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CEILINGS AT THIS HEIGHT OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS IN NC/C OK LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING... BUT CHANCES AT THIS POINT REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE TAF. A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL WORK SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL APPROACH I-40 CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TONIGHT...SEVERAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR...SUGGESTED A
LIGHT QPF SIGNAL THAT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR NORTHEAST OF A ALVA TO WEATHERFORD
TO ADA LINE. THIS SEEMED REASONABLE DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND THE APPROACH OF A MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE...SO
KEPT 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES IN THESE AREAS. FIRST DEVELOPMENT
MAY OCCUR NEAR ENID AND PONCA CITY SOMEWHERE IN THE 7 TO 11 PM
TIME FRAME...THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
OKLAHOMA CITY METRO COULD BE AFFECTED AFTER 2 AM.

SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR...BUT NOT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY MORNING...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
LINGER NEAR A MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS NEAR I-40...MAINLY
EAST OF OF EL RENO.

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...THOUGH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON APPEARS TO WARM AND RATHER HUMID FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THINK CAPPING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED IF A ONE TO
TWO STORMS FORMED NEARLY ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY AS A WEAK RIDGE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODELS SEEMED TO BE
HINTING AT PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION WITH MUCH OF RAIN
OCCURRING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. NO SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE...
THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE DRY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  81  57  80 /  20  20  10  10
HOBART OK         56  83  58  81 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  57  83  58  83 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           52  80  51  80 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  53  79 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         52  80  58  81 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 192315
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
615 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
DIFFICULT LOWER CLOUD FORECAST TONIGHT. WILL START WITH
SOME SCATTERED 4-5KFT THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CEILINGS AT THIS HEIGHT OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS IN NC/C OK LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING... BUT CHANCES AT THIS POINT REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE TAF. A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL WORK SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL APPROACH I-40 CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TONIGHT...SEVERAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR...SUGGESTED A
LIGHT QPF SIGNAL THAT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR NORTHEAST OF A ALVA TO WEATHERFORD
TO ADA LINE. THIS SEEMED REASONABLE DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND THE APPROACH OF A MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE...SO
KEPT 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES IN THESE AREAS. FIRST DEVELOPMENT
MAY OCCUR NEAR ENID AND PONCA CITY SOMEWHERE IN THE 7 TO 11 PM
TIME FRAME...THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
OKLAHOMA CITY METRO COULD BE AFFECTED AFTER 2 AM.

SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR...BUT NOT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY MORNING...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
LINGER NEAR A MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS NEAR I-40...MAINLY
EAST OF OF EL RENO.

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...THOUGH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON APPEARS TO WARM AND RATHER HUMID FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THINK CAPPING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED IF A ONE TO
TWO STORMS FORMED NEARLY ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY AS A WEAK RIDGE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODELS SEEMED TO BE
HINTING AT PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION WITH MUCH OF RAIN
OCCURRING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. NO SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE...
THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE DRY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  81  57  80 /  20  20  10  10
HOBART OK         56  83  58  81 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  57  83  58  83 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           52  80  51  80 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  53  79 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         52  80  58  81 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 192315
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
615 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
DIFFICULT LOWER CLOUD FORECAST TONIGHT. WILL START WITH
SOME SCATTERED 4-5KFT THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CEILINGS AT THIS HEIGHT OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS IN NC/C OK LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING... BUT CHANCES AT THIS POINT REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE TAF. A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL WORK SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL APPROACH I-40 CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TONIGHT...SEVERAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR...SUGGESTED A
LIGHT QPF SIGNAL THAT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR NORTHEAST OF A ALVA TO WEATHERFORD
TO ADA LINE. THIS SEEMED REASONABLE DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND THE APPROACH OF A MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE...SO
KEPT 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES IN THESE AREAS. FIRST DEVELOPMENT
MAY OCCUR NEAR ENID AND PONCA CITY SOMEWHERE IN THE 7 TO 11 PM
TIME FRAME...THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
OKLAHOMA CITY METRO COULD BE AFFECTED AFTER 2 AM.

SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR...BUT NOT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY MORNING...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
LINGER NEAR A MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS NEAR I-40...MAINLY
EAST OF OF EL RENO.

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...THOUGH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON APPEARS TO WARM AND RATHER HUMID FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THINK CAPPING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED IF A ONE TO
TWO STORMS FORMED NEARLY ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY AS A WEAK RIDGE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODELS SEEMED TO BE
HINTING AT PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION WITH MUCH OF RAIN
OCCURRING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. NO SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE...
THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE DRY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  81  57  80 /  20  20  10  10
HOBART OK         56  83  58  81 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  57  83  58  83 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           52  80  51  80 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  53  79 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         52  80  58  81 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 192315
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
615 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
DIFFICULT LOWER CLOUD FORECAST TONIGHT. WILL START WITH
SOME SCATTERED 4-5KFT THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CEILINGS AT THIS HEIGHT OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS IN NC/C OK LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING... BUT CHANCES AT THIS POINT REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE TAF. A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL WORK SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL APPROACH I-40 CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TONIGHT...SEVERAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR...SUGGESTED A
LIGHT QPF SIGNAL THAT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR NORTHEAST OF A ALVA TO WEATHERFORD
TO ADA LINE. THIS SEEMED REASONABLE DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND THE APPROACH OF A MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE...SO
KEPT 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES IN THESE AREAS. FIRST DEVELOPMENT
MAY OCCUR NEAR ENID AND PONCA CITY SOMEWHERE IN THE 7 TO 11 PM
TIME FRAME...THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
OKLAHOMA CITY METRO COULD BE AFFECTED AFTER 2 AM.

SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR...BUT NOT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY MORNING...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
LINGER NEAR A MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS NEAR I-40...MAINLY
EAST OF OF EL RENO.

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...THOUGH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON APPEARS TO WARM AND RATHER HUMID FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THINK CAPPING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED IF A ONE TO
TWO STORMS FORMED NEARLY ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY AS A WEAK RIDGE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODELS SEEMED TO BE
HINTING AT PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION WITH MUCH OF RAIN
OCCURRING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. NO SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE...
THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE DRY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  81  57  80 /  20  20  10  10
HOBART OK         56  83  58  81 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  57  83  58  83 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           52  80  51  80 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  53  79 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         52  80  58  81 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17




000
FXUS64 KTSA 192309
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
609 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAINFALL... WITH
PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM EARLY MONDAY MORNING AT NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
AFFECT NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES FOR A PORTION OF THE MORNING AS
WELL. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

VORTICITY MAX THAT MOVED EASTWARD ALONG THE KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA
BORDER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY HAS LARGELY MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...LEAVING SUBSIDENCE AND DIMINISHING CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE. LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE REGION AND INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT IN CHECK THIS EVENING...WITH BETTER CHANCES
ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS TODAYS VORTICITY MAX MOVES FARTHER FROM
THE REGION. SMALL RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. A DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND COMPONENT WILL LEAD TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 75 LIKELY TO APPROACH 80. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES SHOULD
OCCUR TUESDAY AS WELL...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN
THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL...AS THE RIDGE QUICKLY PUSHES EAST.

THE NEXT BIG FORECAST CHANGE WILL ARRIVE TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL NEAR OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS THURSDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION IN RESPONSE
TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH/FRONT WILL LEAD TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY EVENING WEST OF HIGHWAY 75...SPREADING INTO MUCH
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH. WITH THE STUBBORN UPPER LOW IN THE
NORTHEAST AT THE SAME TIME SEEMING TO FAVOR THE SOUTHERN
PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH...HAVE ELECTED TO BRING HIGHER POPS
FARTHER SOUTH IN A HEDGE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS SHOULD ALSO
RESULT IN AT LEAST SMALL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES LINGERING INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE THINGS FINALLY CLEAR OUT.

QUIET WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO CONSERVATIVE ON THE
WARMUP...AND WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE NEXT SEVERAL
FORECASTS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 192309
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
609 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAINFALL... WITH
PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM EARLY MONDAY MORNING AT NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
AFFECT NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES FOR A PORTION OF THE MORNING AS
WELL. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

VORTICITY MAX THAT MOVED EASTWARD ALONG THE KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA
BORDER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY HAS LARGELY MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...LEAVING SUBSIDENCE AND DIMINISHING CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE. LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE REGION AND INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT IN CHECK THIS EVENING...WITH BETTER CHANCES
ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS TODAYS VORTICITY MAX MOVES FARTHER FROM
THE REGION. SMALL RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. A DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND COMPONENT WILL LEAD TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 75 LIKELY TO APPROACH 80. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES SHOULD
OCCUR TUESDAY AS WELL...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN
THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL...AS THE RIDGE QUICKLY PUSHES EAST.

THE NEXT BIG FORECAST CHANGE WILL ARRIVE TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL NEAR OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS THURSDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION IN RESPONSE
TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH/FRONT WILL LEAD TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY EVENING WEST OF HIGHWAY 75...SPREADING INTO MUCH
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH. WITH THE STUBBORN UPPER LOW IN THE
NORTHEAST AT THE SAME TIME SEEMING TO FAVOR THE SOUTHERN
PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH...HAVE ELECTED TO BRING HIGHER POPS
FARTHER SOUTH IN A HEDGE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS SHOULD ALSO
RESULT IN AT LEAST SMALL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES LINGERING INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE THINGS FINALLY CLEAR OUT.

QUIET WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO CONSERVATIVE ON THE
WARMUP...AND WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE NEXT SEVERAL
FORECASTS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 192309
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
609 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAINFALL... WITH
PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM EARLY MONDAY MORNING AT NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
AFFECT NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES FOR A PORTION OF THE MORNING AS
WELL. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

VORTICITY MAX THAT MOVED EASTWARD ALONG THE KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA
BORDER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY HAS LARGELY MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...LEAVING SUBSIDENCE AND DIMINISHING CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE. LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE REGION AND INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT IN CHECK THIS EVENING...WITH BETTER CHANCES
ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS TODAYS VORTICITY MAX MOVES FARTHER FROM
THE REGION. SMALL RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. A DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND COMPONENT WILL LEAD TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 75 LIKELY TO APPROACH 80. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES SHOULD
OCCUR TUESDAY AS WELL...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN
THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL...AS THE RIDGE QUICKLY PUSHES EAST.

THE NEXT BIG FORECAST CHANGE WILL ARRIVE TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL NEAR OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS THURSDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION IN RESPONSE
TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH/FRONT WILL LEAD TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY EVENING WEST OF HIGHWAY 75...SPREADING INTO MUCH
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH. WITH THE STUBBORN UPPER LOW IN THE
NORTHEAST AT THE SAME TIME SEEMING TO FAVOR THE SOUTHERN
PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH...HAVE ELECTED TO BRING HIGHER POPS
FARTHER SOUTH IN A HEDGE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS SHOULD ALSO
RESULT IN AT LEAST SMALL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES LINGERING INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE THINGS FINALLY CLEAR OUT.

QUIET WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO CONSERVATIVE ON THE
WARMUP...AND WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE NEXT SEVERAL
FORECASTS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 192309
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
609 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAINFALL... WITH
PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM EARLY MONDAY MORNING AT NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
AFFECT NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES FOR A PORTION OF THE MORNING AS
WELL. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

VORTICITY MAX THAT MOVED EASTWARD ALONG THE KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA
BORDER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY HAS LARGELY MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...LEAVING SUBSIDENCE AND DIMINISHING CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE. LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE REGION AND INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT IN CHECK THIS EVENING...WITH BETTER CHANCES
ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS TODAYS VORTICITY MAX MOVES FARTHER FROM
THE REGION. SMALL RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. A DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND COMPONENT WILL LEAD TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 75 LIKELY TO APPROACH 80. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES SHOULD
OCCUR TUESDAY AS WELL...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN
THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL...AS THE RIDGE QUICKLY PUSHES EAST.

THE NEXT BIG FORECAST CHANGE WILL ARRIVE TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL NEAR OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS THURSDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION IN RESPONSE
TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH/FRONT WILL LEAD TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY EVENING WEST OF HIGHWAY 75...SPREADING INTO MUCH
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH. WITH THE STUBBORN UPPER LOW IN THE
NORTHEAST AT THE SAME TIME SEEMING TO FAVOR THE SOUTHERN
PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH...HAVE ELECTED TO BRING HIGHER POPS
FARTHER SOUTH IN A HEDGE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS SHOULD ALSO
RESULT IN AT LEAST SMALL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES LINGERING INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE THINGS FINALLY CLEAR OUT.

QUIET WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO CONSERVATIVE ON THE
WARMUP...AND WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE NEXT SEVERAL
FORECASTS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 192031
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
331 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

VORTICITY MAX THAT MOVED EASTWARD ALONG THE KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA
BORDER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY HAS LARGELY MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...LEAVING SUBSIDENCE AND DIMINISHING CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE. LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE REGION AND INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT IN CHECK THIS EVENING...WITH BETTER CHANCES
ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS TODAYS VORTICITY MAX MOVES FARTHER FROM
THE REGION. SMALL RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. A DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND COMPONENT WILL LEAD TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 75 LIKELY TO APPROACH 80. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES SHOULD
OCCUR TUESDAY AS WELL...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN
THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL...AS THE RIDGE QUICKLY PUSHES EAST.

THE NEXT BIG FORECAST CHANGE WILL ARRIVE TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL NEAR OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS THURSDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION IN RESPONSE
TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH/FRONT WILL LEAD TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY EVENING WEST OF HIGHWAY 75...SPREADING INTO MUCH
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH. WITH THE STUBBORN UPPER LOW IN THE
NORTHEAST AT THE SAME TIME SEEMING TO FAVOR THE SOUTHERN
PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH...HAVE ELECTED TO BRING HIGHER POPS
FARTHER SOUTH IN A HEDGE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS SHOULD ALSO
RESULT IN AT LEAST SMALL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES LINGERING INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE THINGS FINALLY CLEAR OUT.

QUIET WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO CONSERVATIVE ON THE
WARMUP...AND WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE NEXT SEVERAL
FORECASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  78  56  79 /  30  20  10  10
FSM   51  75  55  77 /   0  20  10  10
MLC   53  77  56  79 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   53  78  51  77 /  30  20  10  10
FYV   49  73  47  73 /  10  20  10  10
BYV   50  72  48  72 /  10  20  10   0
MKO   52  77  55  78 /  20  20  10  10
MIO   53  74  51  75 /  30  20  10   0
F10   54  78  57  78 /  20  20  10  10
HHW   52  78  56  80 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....22





000
FXUS64 KTSA 192031
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
331 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

VORTICITY MAX THAT MOVED EASTWARD ALONG THE KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA
BORDER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY HAS LARGELY MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...LEAVING SUBSIDENCE AND DIMINISHING CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE. LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE REGION AND INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT IN CHECK THIS EVENING...WITH BETTER CHANCES
ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS TODAYS VORTICITY MAX MOVES FARTHER FROM
THE REGION. SMALL RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. A DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND COMPONENT WILL LEAD TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 75 LIKELY TO APPROACH 80. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES SHOULD
OCCUR TUESDAY AS WELL...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN
THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL...AS THE RIDGE QUICKLY PUSHES EAST.

THE NEXT BIG FORECAST CHANGE WILL ARRIVE TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL NEAR OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS THURSDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION IN RESPONSE
TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH/FRONT WILL LEAD TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY EVENING WEST OF HIGHWAY 75...SPREADING INTO MUCH
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH. WITH THE STUBBORN UPPER LOW IN THE
NORTHEAST AT THE SAME TIME SEEMING TO FAVOR THE SOUTHERN
PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH...HAVE ELECTED TO BRING HIGHER POPS
FARTHER SOUTH IN A HEDGE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS SHOULD ALSO
RESULT IN AT LEAST SMALL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES LINGERING INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE THINGS FINALLY CLEAR OUT.

QUIET WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO CONSERVATIVE ON THE
WARMUP...AND WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE NEXT SEVERAL
FORECASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  78  56  79 /  30  20  10  10
FSM   51  75  55  77 /   0  20  10  10
MLC   53  77  56  79 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   53  78  51  77 /  30  20  10  10
FYV   49  73  47  73 /  10  20  10  10
BYV   50  72  48  72 /  10  20  10   0
MKO   52  77  55  78 /  20  20  10  10
MIO   53  74  51  75 /  30  20  10   0
F10   54  78  57  78 /  20  20  10  10
HHW   52  78  56  80 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KOUN 191952
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
252 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TONIGHT...SEVERAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR...SUGGESTED A
LIGHT QPF SIGNAL THAT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR NORTHEAST OF A ALVA TO WEATHERFORD
TO ADA LINE. THIS SEEMED REASONABLE DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND THE APPROACH OF A MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE...SO
KEPT 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES IN THESE AREAS. FIRST DEVELOPMENT
MAY OCCUR NEAR ENID AND PONCA CITY SOMEWHERE IN THE 7 TO 11 PM
TIME FRAME...THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
OKLAHOMA CITY METRO COULD BE AFFECTED AFTER 2 AM.

SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR...BUT NOT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY MORNING...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
LINGER NEAR A MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS NEAR I-40...MAINLY
EAST OF OF EL RENO.

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...THOUGH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON APPEARS TO WARM AND RATHER HUMID FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THINK CAPPING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED IF A ONE TO
TWO STORMS FORMED NEARLY ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY AS A WEAK RIDGE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODELS SEEMED TO BE
HINTING AT PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION WITH MUCH OF RAIN
OCCURRING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. NO SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE...
THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE DRY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  81  57  80 /  20  20  10  10
HOBART OK         56  83  58  81 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  57  83  58  83 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           52  80  51  80 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  53  79 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         52  80  58  81 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 191952
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
252 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TONIGHT...SEVERAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR...SUGGESTED A
LIGHT QPF SIGNAL THAT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR NORTHEAST OF A ALVA TO WEATHERFORD
TO ADA LINE. THIS SEEMED REASONABLE DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND THE APPROACH OF A MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE...SO
KEPT 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES IN THESE AREAS. FIRST DEVELOPMENT
MAY OCCUR NEAR ENID AND PONCA CITY SOMEWHERE IN THE 7 TO 11 PM
TIME FRAME...THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
OKLAHOMA CITY METRO COULD BE AFFECTED AFTER 2 AM.

SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR...BUT NOT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY MORNING...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
LINGER NEAR A MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS NEAR I-40...MAINLY
EAST OF OF EL RENO.

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...THOUGH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON APPEARS TO WARM AND RATHER HUMID FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THINK CAPPING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED IF A ONE TO
TWO STORMS FORMED NEARLY ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY AS A WEAK RIDGE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODELS SEEMED TO BE
HINTING AT PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION WITH MUCH OF RAIN
OCCURRING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. NO SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE...
THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE DRY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  81  57  80 /  20  20  10  10
HOBART OK         56  83  58  81 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  57  83  58  83 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           52  80  51  80 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  53  79 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         52  80  58  81 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 191744
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1244 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
19/18Z TAFS...CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATER TODAY.
AS A RESULT...MOST SITES WILL CONTINUE OR DEVELOP BKN CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT CEILINGS TO STAY GENERALLY
VFR...THOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVRF ARE POSSIBLE. OPTED TO KEEP
PROB30 AT KPNC FOR -TSRA. REMOVED PROB30 FOR KOKC AND KOUN AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THESE TAF SITES. WINDS
MAY VEER...ESPECIALLY AT KGAG AND KWWR...TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS A BOUNDARY APPROACHES NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...
19/12Z TAFS...WILL KEEP MAJORITY OF FORECAST VFR THIS ISSUANCE
ALTHOUGH CIGS EXPECTED TO BE JUST ABOVE MVFR FOR A GOOD PART OF
THE DAY AS MOISTURE IN THE 3 TO 6 KFT LAYER INCREASES FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH. SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND KSPS NORTHEAST
TOWARD KOKC AND KPNC THIS MORNING. WILL CONFINE MENTION OF VCSH
TO KPNC. MORE ORGANIZED RAIN ACTIVITY POSSIBLE TOWARD AND AFTER
06Z AND MAINLY AFFECT KPNC DOWN TO KOKC/KOUN. WILL LEAVE MENTION
OF TSRA OUT FOR THIS FORECAST BUT WILL INCLUDE PROB30 FOR -SHRA
AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING AS COMPACT
UPPER LOW PROGRESSES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WILL ALSO MENTION
SPRINKLES AS FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS IN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING IN PART TO MENTION UPPER LOW. MODEST
MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND PROVIDE
A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF STORM OR TWO MAINLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE SIGNAL FOR RAIN IS
WEAK...IT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN ALL MODELS FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF OKC.

BETTER ORGANIZED AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS
BUT SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE UNLIKELY. ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
ARE SIMILAR ON TIMING AND INITIAL IMPACTS OF THIS WAVE...DETAILS
DIFFER ON EVOLUTION OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF WAVE. DPROG/DT
WOULD INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION IMPACTS WOULD SHIFT SOUTH AND
EAST OF CWA FRIDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TREND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  55  82  57 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         75  56  83  58 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  57  83  58 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           78  52  81  51 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     75  55  80  54 /  10  40  30  10
DURANT OK         74  53  80  58 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/06/10



000
FXUS64 KOUN 191744
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1244 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
19/18Z TAFS...CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATER TODAY.
AS A RESULT...MOST SITES WILL CONTINUE OR DEVELOP BKN CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT CEILINGS TO STAY GENERALLY
VFR...THOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVRF ARE POSSIBLE. OPTED TO KEEP
PROB30 AT KPNC FOR -TSRA. REMOVED PROB30 FOR KOKC AND KOUN AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THESE TAF SITES. WINDS
MAY VEER...ESPECIALLY AT KGAG AND KWWR...TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS A BOUNDARY APPROACHES NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...
19/12Z TAFS...WILL KEEP MAJORITY OF FORECAST VFR THIS ISSUANCE
ALTHOUGH CIGS EXPECTED TO BE JUST ABOVE MVFR FOR A GOOD PART OF
THE DAY AS MOISTURE IN THE 3 TO 6 KFT LAYER INCREASES FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH. SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND KSPS NORTHEAST
TOWARD KOKC AND KPNC THIS MORNING. WILL CONFINE MENTION OF VCSH
TO KPNC. MORE ORGANIZED RAIN ACTIVITY POSSIBLE TOWARD AND AFTER
06Z AND MAINLY AFFECT KPNC DOWN TO KOKC/KOUN. WILL LEAVE MENTION
OF TSRA OUT FOR THIS FORECAST BUT WILL INCLUDE PROB30 FOR -SHRA
AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING AS COMPACT
UPPER LOW PROGRESSES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WILL ALSO MENTION
SPRINKLES AS FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS IN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING IN PART TO MENTION UPPER LOW. MODEST
MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND PROVIDE
A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF STORM OR TWO MAINLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE SIGNAL FOR RAIN IS
WEAK...IT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN ALL MODELS FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF OKC.

BETTER ORGANIZED AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS
BUT SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE UNLIKELY. ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
ARE SIMILAR ON TIMING AND INITIAL IMPACTS OF THIS WAVE...DETAILS
DIFFER ON EVOLUTION OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF WAVE. DPROG/DT
WOULD INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION IMPACTS WOULD SHIFT SOUTH AND
EAST OF CWA FRIDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TREND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  55  82  57 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         75  56  83  58 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  57  83  58 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           78  52  81  51 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     75  55  80  54 /  10  40  30  10
DURANT OK         74  53  80  58 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/06/10



000
FXUS64 KOUN 191744
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1244 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
19/18Z TAFS...CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATER TODAY.
AS A RESULT...MOST SITES WILL CONTINUE OR DEVELOP BKN CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT CEILINGS TO STAY GENERALLY
VFR...THOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVRF ARE POSSIBLE. OPTED TO KEEP
PROB30 AT KPNC FOR -TSRA. REMOVED PROB30 FOR KOKC AND KOUN AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THESE TAF SITES. WINDS
MAY VEER...ESPECIALLY AT KGAG AND KWWR...TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS A BOUNDARY APPROACHES NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...
19/12Z TAFS...WILL KEEP MAJORITY OF FORECAST VFR THIS ISSUANCE
ALTHOUGH CIGS EXPECTED TO BE JUST ABOVE MVFR FOR A GOOD PART OF
THE DAY AS MOISTURE IN THE 3 TO 6 KFT LAYER INCREASES FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH. SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND KSPS NORTHEAST
TOWARD KOKC AND KPNC THIS MORNING. WILL CONFINE MENTION OF VCSH
TO KPNC. MORE ORGANIZED RAIN ACTIVITY POSSIBLE TOWARD AND AFTER
06Z AND MAINLY AFFECT KPNC DOWN TO KOKC/KOUN. WILL LEAVE MENTION
OF TSRA OUT FOR THIS FORECAST BUT WILL INCLUDE PROB30 FOR -SHRA
AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING AS COMPACT
UPPER LOW PROGRESSES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WILL ALSO MENTION
SPRINKLES AS FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS IN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING IN PART TO MENTION UPPER LOW. MODEST
MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND PROVIDE
A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF STORM OR TWO MAINLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE SIGNAL FOR RAIN IS
WEAK...IT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN ALL MODELS FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF OKC.

BETTER ORGANIZED AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS
BUT SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE UNLIKELY. ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
ARE SIMILAR ON TIMING AND INITIAL IMPACTS OF THIS WAVE...DETAILS
DIFFER ON EVOLUTION OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF WAVE. DPROG/DT
WOULD INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION IMPACTS WOULD SHIFT SOUTH AND
EAST OF CWA FRIDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TREND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  55  82  57 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         75  56  83  58 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  57  83  58 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           78  52  81  51 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     75  55  80  54 /  10  40  30  10
DURANT OK         74  53  80  58 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/06/10



000
FXUS64 KOUN 191744
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1244 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
19/18Z TAFS...CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATER TODAY.
AS A RESULT...MOST SITES WILL CONTINUE OR DEVELOP BKN CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT CEILINGS TO STAY GENERALLY
VFR...THOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVRF ARE POSSIBLE. OPTED TO KEEP
PROB30 AT KPNC FOR -TSRA. REMOVED PROB30 FOR KOKC AND KOUN AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THESE TAF SITES. WINDS
MAY VEER...ESPECIALLY AT KGAG AND KWWR...TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS A BOUNDARY APPROACHES NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...
19/12Z TAFS...WILL KEEP MAJORITY OF FORECAST VFR THIS ISSUANCE
ALTHOUGH CIGS EXPECTED TO BE JUST ABOVE MVFR FOR A GOOD PART OF
THE DAY AS MOISTURE IN THE 3 TO 6 KFT LAYER INCREASES FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH. SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND KSPS NORTHEAST
TOWARD KOKC AND KPNC THIS MORNING. WILL CONFINE MENTION OF VCSH
TO KPNC. MORE ORGANIZED RAIN ACTIVITY POSSIBLE TOWARD AND AFTER
06Z AND MAINLY AFFECT KPNC DOWN TO KOKC/KOUN. WILL LEAVE MENTION
OF TSRA OUT FOR THIS FORECAST BUT WILL INCLUDE PROB30 FOR -SHRA
AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING AS COMPACT
UPPER LOW PROGRESSES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WILL ALSO MENTION
SPRINKLES AS FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS IN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING IN PART TO MENTION UPPER LOW. MODEST
MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND PROVIDE
A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF STORM OR TWO MAINLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE SIGNAL FOR RAIN IS
WEAK...IT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN ALL MODELS FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF OKC.

BETTER ORGANIZED AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS
BUT SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE UNLIKELY. ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
ARE SIMILAR ON TIMING AND INITIAL IMPACTS OF THIS WAVE...DETAILS
DIFFER ON EVOLUTION OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF WAVE. DPROG/DT
WOULD INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION IMPACTS WOULD SHIFT SOUTH AND
EAST OF CWA FRIDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TREND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  55  82  57 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         75  56  83  58 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  57  83  58 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           78  52  81  51 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     75  55  80  54 /  10  40  30  10
DURANT OK         74  53  80  58 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/06/10



000
FXUS64 KTSA 191725
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1225 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE BULK OF THE PERIOD AT MOST OF
THE TAF SITES. INCREASING LOW LVL WARM ADV TNGT WILL LOWER
CIGS AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHRA...POSSIBLY EVEN ISOLD
TSRA...ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR AFT 03Z THRU ROUGHLY 15Z MONDAY
MORNING. NW AR SITES WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS MON MORNING.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A SPLIT FLOW REGIME PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH REMAINS IN THE EAST THIS MORNING. A
PAIR OF UPPER LOWS HAVE BEEN TRAVERSING BENEATH THE WESTERN RIDGE
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS NOW
MOVING EAST ALONG THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES BY...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 412.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE MID CLOUD TO ALLOW FOR TEMPS
TO REACH INTO THE 70S...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RISES ALREADY SEEN
THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTER IS SLIDING EAST OF OUR AREA
WITH TIME...AND THUS SOUTH WINDS HAVE RETURNED. THE LATEST
HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL GET GOING AFT 00Z THIS EVENING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
TULSA. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO
DROP INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALL AREA TAF SITES
THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME MVFR FOG AT KFYV
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALSO ADDED AT PROB30 GROUP
FOR THE FINAL SIX HOURS AT THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TAF SITES
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AS WEAK IMPULSE
OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TRAVERSES THE AREA. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...IN ZONE OF MODEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY MORNING NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LOW SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR NORMAL AS WEAK
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  79  57  78 /  30  20  20  20
FSM   52  75  55  76 /  10  20  10  10
MLC   53  76  56  79 /  10  20  10  10
BVO   52  79  52  76 /  30  20  20  20
FYV   48  74  47  73 /  10  20  20  20
BYV   50  73  49  72 /  10  20  20  20
MKO   51  77  55  77 /  20  20  10  10
MIO   52  74  53  74 /  30  20  20  20
F10   53  78  56  78 /  20  20  10  10
HHW   53  77  56  79 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 191725
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1225 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE BULK OF THE PERIOD AT MOST OF
THE TAF SITES. INCREASING LOW LVL WARM ADV TNGT WILL LOWER
CIGS AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHRA...POSSIBLY EVEN ISOLD
TSRA...ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR AFT 03Z THRU ROUGHLY 15Z MONDAY
MORNING. NW AR SITES WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS MON MORNING.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A SPLIT FLOW REGIME PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH REMAINS IN THE EAST THIS MORNING. A
PAIR OF UPPER LOWS HAVE BEEN TRAVERSING BENEATH THE WESTERN RIDGE
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS NOW
MOVING EAST ALONG THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES BY...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 412.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE MID CLOUD TO ALLOW FOR TEMPS
TO REACH INTO THE 70S...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RISES ALREADY SEEN
THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTER IS SLIDING EAST OF OUR AREA
WITH TIME...AND THUS SOUTH WINDS HAVE RETURNED. THE LATEST
HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL GET GOING AFT 00Z THIS EVENING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
TULSA. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO
DROP INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALL AREA TAF SITES
THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME MVFR FOG AT KFYV
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALSO ADDED AT PROB30 GROUP
FOR THE FINAL SIX HOURS AT THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TAF SITES
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AS WEAK IMPULSE
OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TRAVERSES THE AREA. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...IN ZONE OF MODEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY MORNING NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LOW SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR NORMAL AS WEAK
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  79  57  78 /  30  20  20  20
FSM   52  75  55  76 /  10  20  10  10
MLC   53  76  56  79 /  10  20  10  10
BVO   52  79  52  76 /  30  20  20  20
FYV   48  74  47  73 /  10  20  20  20
BYV   50  73  49  72 /  10  20  20  20
MKO   51  77  55  77 /  20  20  10  10
MIO   52  74  53  74 /  30  20  20  20
F10   53  78  56  78 /  20  20  10  10
HHW   53  77  56  79 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 191725
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1225 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE BULK OF THE PERIOD AT MOST OF
THE TAF SITES. INCREASING LOW LVL WARM ADV TNGT WILL LOWER
CIGS AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHRA...POSSIBLY EVEN ISOLD
TSRA...ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR AFT 03Z THRU ROUGHLY 15Z MONDAY
MORNING. NW AR SITES WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS MON MORNING.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A SPLIT FLOW REGIME PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH REMAINS IN THE EAST THIS MORNING. A
PAIR OF UPPER LOWS HAVE BEEN TRAVERSING BENEATH THE WESTERN RIDGE
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS NOW
MOVING EAST ALONG THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES BY...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 412.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE MID CLOUD TO ALLOW FOR TEMPS
TO REACH INTO THE 70S...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RISES ALREADY SEEN
THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTER IS SLIDING EAST OF OUR AREA
WITH TIME...AND THUS SOUTH WINDS HAVE RETURNED. THE LATEST
HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL GET GOING AFT 00Z THIS EVENING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
TULSA. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO
DROP INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALL AREA TAF SITES
THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME MVFR FOG AT KFYV
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALSO ADDED AT PROB30 GROUP
FOR THE FINAL SIX HOURS AT THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TAF SITES
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AS WEAK IMPULSE
OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TRAVERSES THE AREA. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...IN ZONE OF MODEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY MORNING NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LOW SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR NORMAL AS WEAK
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  79  57  78 /  30  20  20  20
FSM   52  75  55  76 /  10  20  10  10
MLC   53  76  56  79 /  10  20  10  10
BVO   52  79  52  76 /  30  20  20  20
FYV   48  74  47  73 /  10  20  20  20
BYV   50  73  49  72 /  10  20  20  20
MKO   51  77  55  77 /  20  20  10  10
MIO   52  74  53  74 /  30  20  20  20
F10   53  78  56  78 /  20  20  10  10
HHW   53  77  56  79 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 191725
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1225 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE BULK OF THE PERIOD AT MOST OF
THE TAF SITES. INCREASING LOW LVL WARM ADV TNGT WILL LOWER
CIGS AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHRA...POSSIBLY EVEN ISOLD
TSRA...ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR AFT 03Z THRU ROUGHLY 15Z MONDAY
MORNING. NW AR SITES WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS MON MORNING.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A SPLIT FLOW REGIME PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH REMAINS IN THE EAST THIS MORNING. A
PAIR OF UPPER LOWS HAVE BEEN TRAVERSING BENEATH THE WESTERN RIDGE
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS NOW
MOVING EAST ALONG THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES BY...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 412.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE MID CLOUD TO ALLOW FOR TEMPS
TO REACH INTO THE 70S...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RISES ALREADY SEEN
THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTER IS SLIDING EAST OF OUR AREA
WITH TIME...AND THUS SOUTH WINDS HAVE RETURNED. THE LATEST
HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL GET GOING AFT 00Z THIS EVENING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
TULSA. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO
DROP INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALL AREA TAF SITES
THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME MVFR FOG AT KFYV
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALSO ADDED AT PROB30 GROUP
FOR THE FINAL SIX HOURS AT THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TAF SITES
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AS WEAK IMPULSE
OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TRAVERSES THE AREA. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...IN ZONE OF MODEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY MORNING NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LOW SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR NORMAL AS WEAK
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  79  57  78 /  30  20  20  20
FSM   52  75  55  76 /  10  20  10  10
MLC   53  76  56  79 /  10  20  10  10
BVO   52  79  52  76 /  30  20  20  20
FYV   48  74  47  73 /  10  20  20  20
BYV   50  73  49  72 /  10  20  20  20
MKO   51  77  55  77 /  20  20  10  10
MIO   52  74  53  74 /  30  20  20  20
F10   53  78  56  78 /  20  20  10  10
HHW   53  77  56  79 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 191540
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1040 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A SPLIT FLOW REGIME PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH REMAINS IN THE EAST THIS MORNING. A
PAIR OF UPPER LOWS HAVE BEEN TRAVERSING BENEATH THE WESTERN RIDGE
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS NOW
MOVING EAST ALONG THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES BY...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 412.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE MID CLOUD TO ALLOW FOR TEMPS
TO REACH INTO THE 70S...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RISES ALREADY SEEN
THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTER IS SLIDING EAST OF OUR AREA
WITH TIME...AND THUS SOUTH WINDS HAVE RETURNED. THE LATEST
HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL GET GOING AFT 00Z THIS EVENING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
TULSA. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO
DROP INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALL AREA TAF SITES
THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME MVFR FOG AT KFYV
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALSO ADDED AT PROB30 GROUP
FOR THE FINAL SIX HOURS AT THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TAF SITES
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AS WEAK IMPULSE
OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TRAVERSES THE AREA. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...IN ZONE OF MODEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY MORNING NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LOW SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR NORMAL AS WEAK
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  56  79  57 /  10  30  20  20
FSM   72  52  75  55 /   0  10  20  10
MLC   72  53  76  56 /  10  10  20  10
BVO   73  52  79  52 /  10  30  20  20
FYV   68  48  74  47 /   0  10  20  20
BYV   66  50  73  49 /   0  10  20  20
MKO   72  51  77  55 /  10  20  20  10
MIO   70  52  74  53 /  10  30  20  20
F10   72  53  78  56 /  10  20  20  10
HHW   73  53  77  56 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 191540
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1040 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A SPLIT FLOW REGIME PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH REMAINS IN THE EAST THIS MORNING. A
PAIR OF UPPER LOWS HAVE BEEN TRAVERSING BENEATH THE WESTERN RIDGE
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS NOW
MOVING EAST ALONG THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES BY...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 412.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE MID CLOUD TO ALLOW FOR TEMPS
TO REACH INTO THE 70S...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RISES ALREADY SEEN
THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTER IS SLIDING EAST OF OUR AREA
WITH TIME...AND THUS SOUTH WINDS HAVE RETURNED. THE LATEST
HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL GET GOING AFT 00Z THIS EVENING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
TULSA. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO
DROP INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALL AREA TAF SITES
THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME MVFR FOG AT KFYV
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALSO ADDED AT PROB30 GROUP
FOR THE FINAL SIX HOURS AT THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TAF SITES
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AS WEAK IMPULSE
OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TRAVERSES THE AREA. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...IN ZONE OF MODEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY MORNING NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LOW SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR NORMAL AS WEAK
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  56  79  57 /  10  30  20  20
FSM   72  52  75  55 /   0  10  20  10
MLC   72  53  76  56 /  10  10  20  10
BVO   73  52  79  52 /  10  30  20  20
FYV   68  48  74  47 /   0  10  20  20
BYV   66  50  73  49 /   0  10  20  20
MKO   72  51  77  55 /  10  20  20  10
MIO   70  52  74  53 /  10  30  20  20
F10   72  53  78  56 /  10  20  20  10
HHW   73  53  77  56 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30




000
FXUS64 KOUN 191142 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
642 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
19/12Z TAFS...WILL KEEP MAJORITY OF FORECAST VFR THIS ISSUANCE
ALTHOUGH CIGS EXPECTED TO BE JUST ABOVE MVFR FOR A GOOD PART OF
THE DAY AS MOISTURE IN THE 3 TO 6 KFT LAYER INCREASES FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH. SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND KSPS NORTHEAST
TOWARD KOKC AND KPNC THIS MORNING. WILL CONFINE MENTION OF VCSH
TO KPNC. MORE ORGANIZED RAIN ACTIVITY POSSIBLE TOWARD AND AFTER
06Z AND MAINLY AFFECT KPNC DOWN TO KOKC/KOUN. WILL LEAVE MENTION
OF TSRA OUT FOR THIS FORECAST BUT WILL INCLUDE PROB30 FOR -SHRA
AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING AS COMPACT
UPPER LOW PROGRESSES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WILL ALSO MENTION
SPRINKLES AS FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS IN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING IN PART TO MENTION UPPER LOW. MODEST
MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND PROVIDE
A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF STORM OR TWO MAINLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE SIGNAL FOR RAIN IS
WEAK...IT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN ALL MODELS FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF OKC.

BETTER ORGANIZED AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS
BUT SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE UNLIKELY. ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
ARE SIMILAR ON TIMING AND INITIAL IMPACTS OF THIS WAVE...DETAILS
DIFFER ON EVOLUTION OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF WAVE. DPROG/DT
WOULD INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION IMPACTS WOULD SHIFT SOUTH AND
EAST OF CWA FRIDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TREND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  55  82  57 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         75  56  83  58 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  57  83  58 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           78  52  81  51 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     75  55  80  54 /  10  40  30  10
DURANT OK         74  53  80  58 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/99/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 191142 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
642 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
19/12Z TAFS...WILL KEEP MAJORITY OF FORECAST VFR THIS ISSUANCE
ALTHOUGH CIGS EXPECTED TO BE JUST ABOVE MVFR FOR A GOOD PART OF
THE DAY AS MOISTURE IN THE 3 TO 6 KFT LAYER INCREASES FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH. SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND KSPS NORTHEAST
TOWARD KOKC AND KPNC THIS MORNING. WILL CONFINE MENTION OF VCSH
TO KPNC. MORE ORGANIZED RAIN ACTIVITY POSSIBLE TOWARD AND AFTER
06Z AND MAINLY AFFECT KPNC DOWN TO KOKC/KOUN. WILL LEAVE MENTION
OF TSRA OUT FOR THIS FORECAST BUT WILL INCLUDE PROB30 FOR -SHRA
AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING AS COMPACT
UPPER LOW PROGRESSES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WILL ALSO MENTION
SPRINKLES AS FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS IN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING IN PART TO MENTION UPPER LOW. MODEST
MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND PROVIDE
A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF STORM OR TWO MAINLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE SIGNAL FOR RAIN IS
WEAK...IT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN ALL MODELS FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF OKC.

BETTER ORGANIZED AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS
BUT SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE UNLIKELY. ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
ARE SIMILAR ON TIMING AND INITIAL IMPACTS OF THIS WAVE...DETAILS
DIFFER ON EVOLUTION OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF WAVE. DPROG/DT
WOULD INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION IMPACTS WOULD SHIFT SOUTH AND
EAST OF CWA FRIDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TREND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  55  82  57 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         75  56  83  58 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  57  83  58 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           78  52  81  51 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     75  55  80  54 /  10  40  30  10
DURANT OK         74  53  80  58 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/99/11



000
FXUS64 KTSA 191036
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
536 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALL AREA TAF SITES
THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME MVFR FOG AT KFYV
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALSO ADDED AT PROB30 GROUP
FOR THE FINAL SIX HOURS AT THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TAF SITES
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THAT TIME FRAME.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AS WEAK IMPULSE
OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TRAVERSES THE AREA. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...IN ZONE OF MODEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY MORNING NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LOW SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR NORMAL AS WEAK
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10





000
FXUS64 KTSA 191036
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
536 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALL AREA TAF SITES
THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME MVFR FOG AT KFYV
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALSO ADDED AT PROB30 GROUP
FOR THE FINAL SIX HOURS AT THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TAF SITES
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THAT TIME FRAME.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AS WEAK IMPULSE
OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TRAVERSES THE AREA. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...IN ZONE OF MODEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY MORNING NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LOW SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR NORMAL AS WEAK
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10






000
FXUS64 KOUN 190919
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
419 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING AS COMPACT
UPPER LOW PROGRESSES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WILL ALSO MENTION
SPRINKLES AS FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS IN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING IN PART TO MENTION UPPER LOW. MODEST
MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND PROVIDE
A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF STORM OR TWO MAINLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE SIGNAL FOR RAIN IS
WEAK...IT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN ALL MODELS FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF OKC.

BETTER ORGANIZED AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS
BUT SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE UNLIKELY. ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
ARE SIMILAR ON TIMING AND INITIAL IMPACTS OF THIS WAVE...DETAILS
DIFFER ON EVOLUTION OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF WAVE. DPROG/DT
WOULD INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION IMPACTS WOULD SHIFT SOUTH AND
EAST OF CWA FRIDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TREND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  55  82  57 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         75  56  83  58 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  57  83  58 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           78  52  81  51 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     75  55  80  54 /  10  40  30  10
DURANT OK         74  53  80  58 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 190919
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
419 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING AS COMPACT
UPPER LOW PROGRESSES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WILL ALSO MENTION
SPRINKLES AS FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS IN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING IN PART TO MENTION UPPER LOW. MODEST
MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND PROVIDE
A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF STORM OR TWO MAINLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE SIGNAL FOR RAIN IS
WEAK...IT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN ALL MODELS FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF OKC.

BETTER ORGANIZED AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS
BUT SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE UNLIKELY. ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
ARE SIMILAR ON TIMING AND INITIAL IMPACTS OF THIS WAVE...DETAILS
DIFFER ON EVOLUTION OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF WAVE. DPROG/DT
WOULD INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION IMPACTS WOULD SHIFT SOUTH AND
EAST OF CWA FRIDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TREND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  55  82  57 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         75  56  83  58 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  57  83  58 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           78  52  81  51 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     75  55  80  54 /  10  40  30  10
DURANT OK         74  53  80  58 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 190919
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
419 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING AS COMPACT
UPPER LOW PROGRESSES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WILL ALSO MENTION
SPRINKLES AS FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS IN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING IN PART TO MENTION UPPER LOW. MODEST
MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND PROVIDE
A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF STORM OR TWO MAINLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE SIGNAL FOR RAIN IS
WEAK...IT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN ALL MODELS FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF OKC.

BETTER ORGANIZED AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS
BUT SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE UNLIKELY. ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
ARE SIMILAR ON TIMING AND INITIAL IMPACTS OF THIS WAVE...DETAILS
DIFFER ON EVOLUTION OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF WAVE. DPROG/DT
WOULD INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION IMPACTS WOULD SHIFT SOUTH AND
EAST OF CWA FRIDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TREND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  55  82  57 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         75  56  83  58 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  57  83  58 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           78  52  81  51 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     75  55  80  54 /  10  40  30  10
DURANT OK         74  53  80  58 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 190919
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
419 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING AS COMPACT
UPPER LOW PROGRESSES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WILL ALSO MENTION
SPRINKLES AS FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS IN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING IN PART TO MENTION UPPER LOW. MODEST
MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND PROVIDE
A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF STORM OR TWO MAINLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE SIGNAL FOR RAIN IS
WEAK...IT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN ALL MODELS FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF OKC.

BETTER ORGANIZED AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS
BUT SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE UNLIKELY. ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
ARE SIMILAR ON TIMING AND INITIAL IMPACTS OF THIS WAVE...DETAILS
DIFFER ON EVOLUTION OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF WAVE. DPROG/DT
WOULD INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION IMPACTS WOULD SHIFT SOUTH AND
EAST OF CWA FRIDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TREND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  55  82  57 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         75  56  83  58 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  57  83  58 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           78  52  81  51 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     75  55  80  54 /  10  40  30  10
DURANT OK         74  53  80  58 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/11



000
FXUS64 KTSA 190839
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
339 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AS WEAK IMPULSE
OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TRAVERSES THE AREA. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...IN ZONE OF MODEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY MORNING NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LOW SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR NORMAL AS WEAK
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  56  80  57 /  10  30  20  20
FSM   72  52  75  55 /   0  10  20  10
MLC   72  53  76  56 /  10  10  20  10
BVO   73  52  80  52 /  10  30  20  20
FYV   68  48  74  47 /   0  10  20  20
BYV   66  50  73  49 /   0  10  20  20
MKO   72  51  77  55 /  10  20  20  10
MIO   70  52  74  53 /  10  30  20  20
F10   72  53  78  56 /  10  20  20  10
HHW   73  53  77  56 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 190839
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
339 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AS WEAK IMPULSE
OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TRAVERSES THE AREA. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...IN ZONE OF MODEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY MORNING NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LOW SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR NORMAL AS WEAK
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  56  80  57 /  10  30  20  20
FSM   72  52  75  55 /   0  10  20  10
MLC   72  53  76  56 /  10  10  20  10
BVO   73  52  80  52 /  10  30  20  20
FYV   68  48  74  47 /   0  10  20  20
BYV   66  50  73  49 /   0  10  20  20
MKO   72  51  77  55 /  10  20  20  10
MIO   70  52  74  53 /  10  30  20  20
F10   72  53  78  56 /  10  20  20  10
HHW   73  53  77  56 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....12





000
FXUS64 KOUN 190505 AAB
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1205 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
19/00Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. BRIEF
AND VERY LIGHT -SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH
12Z. MORE ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE NEAR KPNC TOWARD END
OF FORECAST CYCLE BUT GREATER IMPACT AFTER 06Z AND WILL NOT BE
MENTIONED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE BRIEF DISCUSSION BELOW. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO TEMPS...SKY AND POPS.

DISCUSSION...
A MID TO UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME SPRINKLES ACCOMPANYING IT NEAR NW OK.
FURTHER SOUTH...OVER SW OK AND W N TX...A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO
PRESENT THANKS TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT. EXPECT THIS ASCENT TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT THERE...BUT OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE LOW WILL MITIGATE ANY PRECIP CHANCES. DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER
THERE FOR STRATUS THOUGH. ADJUSTED TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
MAINLY ACROSS THE SW WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED NEAR
SUNRISE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  81  56  79 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         55  82  57  80 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  83  57  82 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           50  81  51  79 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     53  80  55  77 /  30  20  10  10
DURANT OK         53  80  57  80 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/99/30




000
FXUS64 KOUN 190505 AAB
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1205 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
19/00Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. BRIEF
AND VERY LIGHT -SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH
12Z. MORE ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE NEAR KPNC TOWARD END
OF FORECAST CYCLE BUT GREATER IMPACT AFTER 06Z AND WILL NOT BE
MENTIONED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE BRIEF DISCUSSION BELOW. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO TEMPS...SKY AND POPS.

DISCUSSION...
A MID TO UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME SPRINKLES ACCOMPANYING IT NEAR NW OK.
FURTHER SOUTH...OVER SW OK AND W N TX...A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO
PRESENT THANKS TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT. EXPECT THIS ASCENT TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT THERE...BUT OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE LOW WILL MITIGATE ANY PRECIP CHANCES. DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER
THERE FOR STRATUS THOUGH. ADJUSTED TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
MAINLY ACROSS THE SW WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED NEAR
SUNRISE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  81  56  79 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         55  82  57  80 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  83  57  82 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           50  81  51  79 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     53  80  55  77 /  30  20  10  10
DURANT OK         53  80  57  80 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/99/30



000
FXUS64 KTSA 190448
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1148 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL SEE
INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY SUNDAY...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 845 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. THE CURRENT FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK... SO NO UPDATE WILL BE NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL SEE
INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY SUNDAY...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC...AT 12Z...WEAK BUT SIGNIFICANT H5 SHORT WAVE OVER NM
WITH ANOTHER STRONGER TROF OVER CA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY LARGER
TROF SOUTH OF AK. THE AK TROF IS ALREADY PUSHING THE CA TROF WHICH
IS...IN TURN...STARTING TO EJECT THE NM SHORT WAVE TOWARD OK.
APPEARS THE CA TROF WILL DISCONNECT FROM FLOW FARTHER NORTH OVER
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE TROF ENERGY OVER NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LEAVE
THE CA TROF AND MOVE OVER THE RIDGE IN THE PLAINS AND MERGE WITH
THE NM SHORT WAVE AND MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
RESULTING PVA AND VERTICAL MOTIONS WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE ABSORBED IN THE
LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND MINOR OUT.

MORE FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC WILL EJECT ENERGY OUT OF THE TROF
SOUTH OF AK AND PUSH A TROF INTO CA AND ON INTO THE ROCKIES BY MID
WEEK. AS THE TROF MOVES FARTHER EAST...IT WILL PICK UP REMNANTS OF
THE ORIGINAL CA LOW AND BRING IT EAST INTO THE PLAINS. THE RESULT
WILL BE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROF MOVING INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS TROF DIPS SOUTHEAST AND WILL BRING A FRONT INTO THE
AREA ON THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PVA MOVING ACROSS WESTERN OK. A
CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE UPPER LOW DROPS INTO TEXAS BY
FRIDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

ALL MODELS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. NO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES WERE NOTED IN MODEL TEMPS AND POPS...AND BLENDED THOSE
WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...14






000
FXUS64 KTSA 190448
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1148 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL SEE
INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY SUNDAY...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 845 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. THE CURRENT FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK... SO NO UPDATE WILL BE NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL SEE
INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY SUNDAY...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC...AT 12Z...WEAK BUT SIGNIFICANT H5 SHORT WAVE OVER NM
WITH ANOTHER STRONGER TROF OVER CA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY LARGER
TROF SOUTH OF AK. THE AK TROF IS ALREADY PUSHING THE CA TROF WHICH
IS...IN TURN...STARTING TO EJECT THE NM SHORT WAVE TOWARD OK.
APPEARS THE CA TROF WILL DISCONNECT FROM FLOW FARTHER NORTH OVER
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE TROF ENERGY OVER NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LEAVE
THE CA TROF AND MOVE OVER THE RIDGE IN THE PLAINS AND MERGE WITH
THE NM SHORT WAVE AND MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
RESULTING PVA AND VERTICAL MOTIONS WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE ABSORBED IN THE
LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND MINOR OUT.

MORE FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC WILL EJECT ENERGY OUT OF THE TROF
SOUTH OF AK AND PUSH A TROF INTO CA AND ON INTO THE ROCKIES BY MID
WEEK. AS THE TROF MOVES FARTHER EAST...IT WILL PICK UP REMNANTS OF
THE ORIGINAL CA LOW AND BRING IT EAST INTO THE PLAINS. THE RESULT
WILL BE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROF MOVING INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS TROF DIPS SOUTHEAST AND WILL BRING A FRONT INTO THE
AREA ON THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PVA MOVING ACROSS WESTERN OK. A
CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE UPPER LOW DROPS INTO TEXAS BY
FRIDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

ALL MODELS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. NO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES WERE NOTED IN MODEL TEMPS AND POPS...AND BLENDED THOSE
WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...14







000
FXUS64 KTSA 190448
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1148 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL SEE
INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY SUNDAY...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 845 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. THE CURRENT FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK... SO NO UPDATE WILL BE NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL SEE
INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY SUNDAY...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC...AT 12Z...WEAK BUT SIGNIFICANT H5 SHORT WAVE OVER NM
WITH ANOTHER STRONGER TROF OVER CA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY LARGER
TROF SOUTH OF AK. THE AK TROF IS ALREADY PUSHING THE CA TROF WHICH
IS...IN TURN...STARTING TO EJECT THE NM SHORT WAVE TOWARD OK.
APPEARS THE CA TROF WILL DISCONNECT FROM FLOW FARTHER NORTH OVER
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE TROF ENERGY OVER NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LEAVE
THE CA TROF AND MOVE OVER THE RIDGE IN THE PLAINS AND MERGE WITH
THE NM SHORT WAVE AND MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
RESULTING PVA AND VERTICAL MOTIONS WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE ABSORBED IN THE
LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND MINOR OUT.

MORE FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC WILL EJECT ENERGY OUT OF THE TROF
SOUTH OF AK AND PUSH A TROF INTO CA AND ON INTO THE ROCKIES BY MID
WEEK. AS THE TROF MOVES FARTHER EAST...IT WILL PICK UP REMNANTS OF
THE ORIGINAL CA LOW AND BRING IT EAST INTO THE PLAINS. THE RESULT
WILL BE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROF MOVING INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS TROF DIPS SOUTHEAST AND WILL BRING A FRONT INTO THE
AREA ON THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PVA MOVING ACROSS WESTERN OK. A
CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE UPPER LOW DROPS INTO TEXAS BY
FRIDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

ALL MODELS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. NO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES WERE NOTED IN MODEL TEMPS AND POPS...AND BLENDED THOSE
WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...14






000
FXUS64 KTSA 190448
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1148 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL SEE
INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY SUNDAY...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 845 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. THE CURRENT FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK... SO NO UPDATE WILL BE NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL SEE
INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY SUNDAY...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC...AT 12Z...WEAK BUT SIGNIFICANT H5 SHORT WAVE OVER NM
WITH ANOTHER STRONGER TROF OVER CA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY LARGER
TROF SOUTH OF AK. THE AK TROF IS ALREADY PUSHING THE CA TROF WHICH
IS...IN TURN...STARTING TO EJECT THE NM SHORT WAVE TOWARD OK.
APPEARS THE CA TROF WILL DISCONNECT FROM FLOW FARTHER NORTH OVER
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE TROF ENERGY OVER NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LEAVE
THE CA TROF AND MOVE OVER THE RIDGE IN THE PLAINS AND MERGE WITH
THE NM SHORT WAVE AND MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
RESULTING PVA AND VERTICAL MOTIONS WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE ABSORBED IN THE
LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND MINOR OUT.

MORE FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC WILL EJECT ENERGY OUT OF THE TROF
SOUTH OF AK AND PUSH A TROF INTO CA AND ON INTO THE ROCKIES BY MID
WEEK. AS THE TROF MOVES FARTHER EAST...IT WILL PICK UP REMNANTS OF
THE ORIGINAL CA LOW AND BRING IT EAST INTO THE PLAINS. THE RESULT
WILL BE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROF MOVING INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS TROF DIPS SOUTHEAST AND WILL BRING A FRONT INTO THE
AREA ON THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PVA MOVING ACROSS WESTERN OK. A
CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE UPPER LOW DROPS INTO TEXAS BY
FRIDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

ALL MODELS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. NO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES WERE NOTED IN MODEL TEMPS AND POPS...AND BLENDED THOSE
WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...14







000
FXUS64 KOUN 190342 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1042 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE BRIEF DISCUSSION BELOW. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO TEMPS...SKY AND POPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A MID TO UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME SPRINKLES ACCOMPANYING IT NEAR NW OK.
FURTHER SOUTH...OVER SW OK AND W N TX...A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO
PRESENT THANKS TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT. EXPECT THIS ASCENT TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT THERE...BUT OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE LOW WILL MITIGATE ANY PRECIP CHANCES. DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER
THERE FOR STRATUS THOUGH. ADJUSTED TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
MAINLY ACROSS THE SW WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED NEAR
SUNRISE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  76  55  81 /   0  10  10  10
HOBART OK         52  77  55  82 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  55  78  56  83 /   0  10  10  10
GAGE OK           49  78  50  81 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     48  75  53  80 /   0  10  30  20
DURANT OK         52  74  53  80 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/30




000
FXUS64 KOUN 190342 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1042 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE BRIEF DISCUSSION BELOW. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO TEMPS...SKY AND POPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A MID TO UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME SPRINKLES ACCOMPANYING IT NEAR NW OK.
FURTHER SOUTH...OVER SW OK AND W N TX...A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO
PRESENT THANKS TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT. EXPECT THIS ASCENT TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT THERE...BUT OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE LOW WILL MITIGATE ANY PRECIP CHANCES. DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER
THERE FOR STRATUS THOUGH. ADJUSTED TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
MAINLY ACROSS THE SW WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED NEAR
SUNRISE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  76  55  81 /   0  10  10  10
HOBART OK         52  77  55  82 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  55  78  56  83 /   0  10  10  10
GAGE OK           49  78  50  81 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     48  75  53  80 /   0  10  30  20
DURANT OK         52  74  53  80 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/30




000
FXUS64 KOUN 190342 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1042 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE BRIEF DISCUSSION BELOW. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO TEMPS...SKY AND POPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A MID TO UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME SPRINKLES ACCOMPANYING IT NEAR NW OK.
FURTHER SOUTH...OVER SW OK AND W N TX...A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO
PRESENT THANKS TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT. EXPECT THIS ASCENT TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT THERE...BUT OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE LOW WILL MITIGATE ANY PRECIP CHANCES. DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER
THERE FOR STRATUS THOUGH. ADJUSTED TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
MAINLY ACROSS THE SW WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED NEAR
SUNRISE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  76  55  81 /   0  10  10  10
HOBART OK         52  77  55  82 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  55  78  56  83 /   0  10  10  10
GAGE OK           49  78  50  81 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     48  75  53  80 /   0  10  30  20
DURANT OK         52  74  53  80 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/30




000
FXUS64 KOUN 190342 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1042 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE BRIEF DISCUSSION BELOW. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO TEMPS...SKY AND POPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A MID TO UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME SPRINKLES ACCOMPANYING IT NEAR NW OK.
FURTHER SOUTH...OVER SW OK AND W N TX...A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO
PRESENT THANKS TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT. EXPECT THIS ASCENT TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT THERE...BUT OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE LOW WILL MITIGATE ANY PRECIP CHANCES. DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER
THERE FOR STRATUS THOUGH. ADJUSTED TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
MAINLY ACROSS THE SW WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED NEAR
SUNRISE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  76  55  81 /   0  10  10  10
HOBART OK         52  77  55  82 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  55  78  56  83 /   0  10  10  10
GAGE OK           49  78  50  81 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     48  75  53  80 /   0  10  30  20
DURANT OK         52  74  53  80 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/30




000
FXUS64 KOUN 190342 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1042 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE BRIEF DISCUSSION BELOW. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO TEMPS...SKY AND POPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A MID TO UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME SPRINKLES ACCOMPANYING IT NEAR NW OK.
FURTHER SOUTH...OVER SW OK AND W N TX...A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO
PRESENT THANKS TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT. EXPECT THIS ASCENT TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT THERE...BUT OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE LOW WILL MITIGATE ANY PRECIP CHANCES. DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER
THERE FOR STRATUS THOUGH. ADJUSTED TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
MAINLY ACROSS THE SW WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED NEAR
SUNRISE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  76  55  81 /   0  10  10  10
HOBART OK         52  77  55  82 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  55  78  56  83 /   0  10  10  10
GAGE OK           49  78  50  81 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     48  75  53  80 /   0  10  30  20
DURANT OK         52  74  53  80 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/30



000
FXUS64 KOUN 190342 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1042 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE BRIEF DISCUSSION BELOW. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO TEMPS...SKY AND POPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A MID TO UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME SPRINKLES ACCOMPANYING IT NEAR NW OK.
FURTHER SOUTH...OVER SW OK AND W N TX...A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO
PRESENT THANKS TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT. EXPECT THIS ASCENT TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT THERE...BUT OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE LOW WILL MITIGATE ANY PRECIP CHANCES. DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER
THERE FOR STRATUS THOUGH. ADJUSTED TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
MAINLY ACROSS THE SW WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED NEAR
SUNRISE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  76  55  81 /   0  10  10  10
HOBART OK         52  77  55  82 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  55  78  56  83 /   0  10  10  10
GAGE OK           49  78  50  81 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     48  75  53  80 /   0  10  30  20
DURANT OK         52  74  53  80 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 190145
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
845 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. THE CURRENT FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK... SO NO UPDATE WILL BE NECESSARY THIS EVENING.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL SEE
INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY SUNDAY...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC...AT 12Z...WEAK BUT SIGNIFICANT H5 SHORT WAVE OVER NM
WITH ANOTHER STRONGER TROF OVER CA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY LARGER
TROF SOUTH OF AK. THE AK TROF IS ALREADY PUSHING THE CA TROF WHICH
IS...IN TURN...STARTING TO EJECT THE NM SHORT WAVE TOWARD OK.
APPEARS THE CA TROF WILL DISCONNECT FROM FLOW FARTHER NORTH OVER
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE TROF ENERGY OVER NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LEAVE
THE CA TROF AND MOVE OVER THE RIDGE IN THE PLAINS AND MERGE WITH
THE NM SHORT WAVE AND MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
RESULTING PVA AND VERTICAL MOTIONS WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE ABSORBED IN THE
LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND MINOR OUT.

MORE FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC WILL EJECT ENERGY OUT OF THE TROF
SOUTH OF AK AND PUSH A TROF INTO CA AND ON INTO THE ROCKIES BY MID
WEEK. AS THE TROF MOVES FARTHER EAST...IT WILL PICK UP REMNANTS OF
THE ORIGINAL CA LOW AND BRING IT EAST INTO THE PLAINS. THE RESULT
WILL BE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROF MOVING INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS TROF DIPS SOUTHEAST AND WILL BRING A FRONT INTO THE
AREA ON THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PVA MOVING ACROSS WESTERN OK. A
CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE UPPER LOW DROPS INTO TEXAS BY
FRIDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

ALL MODELS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. NO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES WERE NOTED IN MODEL TEMPS AND POPS...AND BLENDED THOSE
WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 190145
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
845 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. THE CURRENT FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK... SO NO UPDATE WILL BE NECESSARY THIS EVENING.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL SEE
INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY SUNDAY...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC...AT 12Z...WEAK BUT SIGNIFICANT H5 SHORT WAVE OVER NM
WITH ANOTHER STRONGER TROF OVER CA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY LARGER
TROF SOUTH OF AK. THE AK TROF IS ALREADY PUSHING THE CA TROF WHICH
IS...IN TURN...STARTING TO EJECT THE NM SHORT WAVE TOWARD OK.
APPEARS THE CA TROF WILL DISCONNECT FROM FLOW FARTHER NORTH OVER
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE TROF ENERGY OVER NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LEAVE
THE CA TROF AND MOVE OVER THE RIDGE IN THE PLAINS AND MERGE WITH
THE NM SHORT WAVE AND MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
RESULTING PVA AND VERTICAL MOTIONS WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE ABSORBED IN THE
LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND MINOR OUT.

MORE FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC WILL EJECT ENERGY OUT OF THE TROF
SOUTH OF AK AND PUSH A TROF INTO CA AND ON INTO THE ROCKIES BY MID
WEEK. AS THE TROF MOVES FARTHER EAST...IT WILL PICK UP REMNANTS OF
THE ORIGINAL CA LOW AND BRING IT EAST INTO THE PLAINS. THE RESULT
WILL BE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROF MOVING INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS TROF DIPS SOUTHEAST AND WILL BRING A FRONT INTO THE
AREA ON THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PVA MOVING ACROSS WESTERN OK. A
CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE UPPER LOW DROPS INTO TEXAS BY
FRIDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

ALL MODELS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. NO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES WERE NOTED IN MODEL TEMPS AND POPS...AND BLENDED THOSE
WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 190145
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
845 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. THE CURRENT FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK... SO NO UPDATE WILL BE NECESSARY THIS EVENING.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL SEE
INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY SUNDAY...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC...AT 12Z...WEAK BUT SIGNIFICANT H5 SHORT WAVE OVER NM
WITH ANOTHER STRONGER TROF OVER CA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY LARGER
TROF SOUTH OF AK. THE AK TROF IS ALREADY PUSHING THE CA TROF WHICH
IS...IN TURN...STARTING TO EJECT THE NM SHORT WAVE TOWARD OK.
APPEARS THE CA TROF WILL DISCONNECT FROM FLOW FARTHER NORTH OVER
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE TROF ENERGY OVER NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LEAVE
THE CA TROF AND MOVE OVER THE RIDGE IN THE PLAINS AND MERGE WITH
THE NM SHORT WAVE AND MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
RESULTING PVA AND VERTICAL MOTIONS WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE ABSORBED IN THE
LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND MINOR OUT.

MORE FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC WILL EJECT ENERGY OUT OF THE TROF
SOUTH OF AK AND PUSH A TROF INTO CA AND ON INTO THE ROCKIES BY MID
WEEK. AS THE TROF MOVES FARTHER EAST...IT WILL PICK UP REMNANTS OF
THE ORIGINAL CA LOW AND BRING IT EAST INTO THE PLAINS. THE RESULT
WILL BE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROF MOVING INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS TROF DIPS SOUTHEAST AND WILL BRING A FRONT INTO THE
AREA ON THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PVA MOVING ACROSS WESTERN OK. A
CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE UPPER LOW DROPS INTO TEXAS BY
FRIDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

ALL MODELS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. NO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES WERE NOTED IN MODEL TEMPS AND POPS...AND BLENDED THOSE
WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 190145
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
845 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. THE CURRENT FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK... SO NO UPDATE WILL BE NECESSARY THIS EVENING.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL SEE
INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY SUNDAY...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC...AT 12Z...WEAK BUT SIGNIFICANT H5 SHORT WAVE OVER NM
WITH ANOTHER STRONGER TROF OVER CA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY LARGER
TROF SOUTH OF AK. THE AK TROF IS ALREADY PUSHING THE CA TROF WHICH
IS...IN TURN...STARTING TO EJECT THE NM SHORT WAVE TOWARD OK.
APPEARS THE CA TROF WILL DISCONNECT FROM FLOW FARTHER NORTH OVER
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE TROF ENERGY OVER NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LEAVE
THE CA TROF AND MOVE OVER THE RIDGE IN THE PLAINS AND MERGE WITH
THE NM SHORT WAVE AND MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
RESULTING PVA AND VERTICAL MOTIONS WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE ABSORBED IN THE
LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND MINOR OUT.

MORE FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC WILL EJECT ENERGY OUT OF THE TROF
SOUTH OF AK AND PUSH A TROF INTO CA AND ON INTO THE ROCKIES BY MID
WEEK. AS THE TROF MOVES FARTHER EAST...IT WILL PICK UP REMNANTS OF
THE ORIGINAL CA LOW AND BRING IT EAST INTO THE PLAINS. THE RESULT
WILL BE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROF MOVING INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS TROF DIPS SOUTHEAST AND WILL BRING A FRONT INTO THE
AREA ON THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PVA MOVING ACROSS WESTERN OK. A
CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE UPPER LOW DROPS INTO TEXAS BY
FRIDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

ALL MODELS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. NO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES WERE NOTED IN MODEL TEMPS AND POPS...AND BLENDED THOSE
WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 182320
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
620 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL SEE
INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY SUNDAY...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC...AT 12Z...WEAK BUT SIGNIFICANT H5 SHORT WAVE OVER NM
WITH ANOTHER STRONGER TROF OVER CA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY LARGER
TROF SOUTH OF AK. THE AK TROF IS ALREADY PUSHING THE CA TROF WHICH
IS...IN TURN...STARTING TO EJECT THE NM SHORT WAVE TOWARD OK.
APPEARS THE CA TROF WILL DISCONNECT FROM FLOW FARTHER NORTH OVER
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE TROF ENERGY OVER NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LEAVE
THE CA TROF AND MOVE OVER THE RIDGE IN THE PLAINS AND MERGE WITH
THE NM SHORT WAVE AND MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
RESULTING PVA AND VERTICAL MOTIONS WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE ABSORBED IN THE
LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND MINOR OUT.

MORE FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC WILL EJECT ENERGY OUT OF THE TROF
SOUTH OF AK AND PUSH A TROF INTO CA AND ON INTO THE ROCKIES BY MID
WEEK. AS THE TROF MOVES FARTHER EAST...IT WILL PICK UP REMNANTS OF
THE ORIGINAL CA LOW AND BRING IT EAST INTO THE PLAINS. THE RESULT
WILL BE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROF MOVING INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS TROF DIPS SOUTHEAST AND WILL BRING A FRONT INTO THE
AREA ON THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PVA MOVING ACROSS WESTERN OK. A
CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE UPPER LOW DROPS INTO TEXAS BY
FRIDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

ALL MODELS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. NO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES WERE NOTED IN MODEL TEMPS AND POPS...AND BLENDED THOSE
WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14








000
FXUS64 KTSA 182320
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
620 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL SEE
INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY SUNDAY...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC...AT 12Z...WEAK BUT SIGNIFICANT H5 SHORT WAVE OVER NM
WITH ANOTHER STRONGER TROF OVER CA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY LARGER
TROF SOUTH OF AK. THE AK TROF IS ALREADY PUSHING THE CA TROF WHICH
IS...IN TURN...STARTING TO EJECT THE NM SHORT WAVE TOWARD OK.
APPEARS THE CA TROF WILL DISCONNECT FROM FLOW FARTHER NORTH OVER
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE TROF ENERGY OVER NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LEAVE
THE CA TROF AND MOVE OVER THE RIDGE IN THE PLAINS AND MERGE WITH
THE NM SHORT WAVE AND MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
RESULTING PVA AND VERTICAL MOTIONS WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE ABSORBED IN THE
LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND MINOR OUT.

MORE FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC WILL EJECT ENERGY OUT OF THE TROF
SOUTH OF AK AND PUSH A TROF INTO CA AND ON INTO THE ROCKIES BY MID
WEEK. AS THE TROF MOVES FARTHER EAST...IT WILL PICK UP REMNANTS OF
THE ORIGINAL CA LOW AND BRING IT EAST INTO THE PLAINS. THE RESULT
WILL BE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROF MOVING INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS TROF DIPS SOUTHEAST AND WILL BRING A FRONT INTO THE
AREA ON THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PVA MOVING ACROSS WESTERN OK. A
CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE UPPER LOW DROPS INTO TEXAS BY
FRIDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

ALL MODELS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. NO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES WERE NOTED IN MODEL TEMPS AND POPS...AND BLENDED THOSE
WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14









000
FXUS64 KOUN 182246
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
545 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
SHOULD CONT TO SEE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT
WITH A GRADUAL LOWERING OF THE CEILINGS. COULD SEE CEILINGS
APPROACHING MVFR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE LIFTS
NORTH OUT OF TX. WILL KEEP CEILINGS IN THE 3 TO 4 KFT RANGE FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20KTS ACROSS NORTHWEST
BY LATE MORNING. WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF FORECAST
FOR NOW AS CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES TIME TO TIME
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TONIGHT... INCREASED POPS TO FIFTEEN PERCENT ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
DUE TO RAINFALL AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. IN ADDITION... 850MB
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS SUGGEST LOW CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... LEADING TO LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THAT REGION BEING INCREASED BY A FEW DEGREES. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER OVER NORTH EASTERN COUNTIES DUE TO MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN NEW MEXICO.

SUNDAY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SPRINKLES OR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
LINGERED CLOSE TO THE UPPER LOW NEAR I-35 AND POINTS EAST. DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE FROM THE LACK OF MOISTURE. HIGHS AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER COMPARED TO TODAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
FORM OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA FROM INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD
OF A MID/UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THUS...KEPT LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN CHANCES IN THESE AREAS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...KEPT A DRY FORECAST
DURING THIS TIME FRAME DUE TO WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...THOUGH SOME
MODELS HINT AT SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY ARE FORECAST.
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A WEAK FRONT...AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS
INCREASE INTO THE 50S TO PERHAPS LOWER 60S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS
A MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION.
FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ROUGHLY IN THE 75TH TO 95TH
PERCENTILE...SO HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK SHEAR.

/MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  49  76  55  81 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         49  77  55  82 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  53  78  56  83 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           44  78  50  81 /  20  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     45  75  53  80 /  10  10  30  20
DURANT OK         51  74  53  80 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17



000
FXUS64 KTSA 182059
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
359 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC...AT 12Z...WEAK BUT SIGNIFICANT H5 SHORT WAVE OVER NM
WITH ANOTHER STRONGER TROF OVER CA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY LARGER
TROF SOUTH OF AK. THE AK TROF IS ALREADY PUSHING THE CA TROF WHICH
IS...IN TURN...STARTING TO EJECT THE NM SHORT WAVE TOWARD OK.
APPEARS THE CA TROF WILL DISCONNECT FROM FLOW FARTHER NORTH OVER
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE TROF ENERGY OVER NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LEAVE
THE CA TROF AND MOVE OVER THE RIDGE IN THE PLAINS AND MERGE WITH
THE NM SHORT WAVE AND MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
RESULTING PVA AND VERTICAL MOTIONS WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE ABSORBED IN THE
LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND MINOR OUT.

MORE FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC WILL EJECT ENERGY OUT OF THE TROF
SOUTH OF AK AND PUSH A TROF INTO CA AND ON INTO THE ROCKIES BY MID
WEEK. AS THE TROF MOVES FARTHER EAST...IT WILL PICK UP REMNANTS OF
THE ORIGINAL CA LOW AND BRING IT EAST INTO THE PLAINS. THE RESULT
WILL BE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROF MOVING INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS TROF DIPS SOUTHEAST AND WILL BRING A FRONT INTO THE
AREA ON THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PVA MOVING ACROSS WESTERN OK. A
CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE UPPER LOW DROPS INTO TEXAS BY
FRIDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

ALL MODELS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. NO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES WERE NOTED IN MODEL TEMPS AND POPS...AND BLENDED THOSE
WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   47  72  55  77 /   0  10  20  20
FSM   48  70  50  75 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   49  71  53  76 /   0  10  10  20
BVO   43  72  54  77 /   0  10  20  20
FYV   44  67  49  73 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   43  67  50  71 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   47  71  52  76 /   0  10  20  20
MIO   43  69  53  75 /   0  10  20  20
F10   48  72  54  77 /   0  10  20  20
HHW   50  72  51  77 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....02





000
FXUS64 KTSA 182059
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
359 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC...AT 12Z...WEAK BUT SIGNIFICANT H5 SHORT WAVE OVER NM
WITH ANOTHER STRONGER TROF OVER CA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY LARGER
TROF SOUTH OF AK. THE AK TROF IS ALREADY PUSHING THE CA TROF WHICH
IS...IN TURN...STARTING TO EJECT THE NM SHORT WAVE TOWARD OK.
APPEARS THE CA TROF WILL DISCONNECT FROM FLOW FARTHER NORTH OVER
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE TROF ENERGY OVER NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LEAVE
THE CA TROF AND MOVE OVER THE RIDGE IN THE PLAINS AND MERGE WITH
THE NM SHORT WAVE AND MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
RESULTING PVA AND VERTICAL MOTIONS WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE ABSORBED IN THE
LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND MINOR OUT.

MORE FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC WILL EJECT ENERGY OUT OF THE TROF
SOUTH OF AK AND PUSH A TROF INTO CA AND ON INTO THE ROCKIES BY MID
WEEK. AS THE TROF MOVES FARTHER EAST...IT WILL PICK UP REMNANTS OF
THE ORIGINAL CA LOW AND BRING IT EAST INTO THE PLAINS. THE RESULT
WILL BE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROF MOVING INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS TROF DIPS SOUTHEAST AND WILL BRING A FRONT INTO THE
AREA ON THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PVA MOVING ACROSS WESTERN OK. A
CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE UPPER LOW DROPS INTO TEXAS BY
FRIDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

ALL MODELS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. NO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES WERE NOTED IN MODEL TEMPS AND POPS...AND BLENDED THOSE
WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   47  72  55  77 /   0  10  20  20
FSM   48  70  50  75 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   49  71  53  76 /   0  10  10  20
BVO   43  72  54  77 /   0  10  20  20
FYV   44  67  49  73 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   43  67  50  71 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   47  71  52  76 /   0  10  20  20
MIO   43  69  53  75 /   0  10  20  20
F10   48  72  54  77 /   0  10  20  20
HHW   50  72  51  77 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....02






000
FXUS64 KOUN 181939
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
239 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES TIME TO TIME
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TONIGHT... INCREASED POPS TO FIFTEEN PERCENT ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
DUE TO RAINFALL AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. IN ADDITION... 850MB
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS SUGGEST LOW CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... LEADING TO LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THAT REGION BEING INCREASED BY A FEW DEGREES. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER OVER NORTH EASTERN COUNTIES DUE TO MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN NEW MEXICO.

SUNDAY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SPRINKLES OR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
LINGERED CLOSE TO THE UPPER LOW NEAR I-35 AND POINTS EAST. DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE FROM THE LACK OF MOISTURE. HIGHS AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER COMPARED TO TODAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
FORM OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA FROM INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD
OF A MID/UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THUS...KEPT LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN CHANCES IN THESE AREAS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...KEPT A DRY FORECAST
DURING THIS TIME FRAME DUE TO WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...THOUGH SOME
MODELS HINT AT SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY ARE FORECAST.
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A WEAK FRONT...AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS
INCREASE INTO THE 50S TO PERHAPS LOWER 60S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS
A MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION.
FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ROUGHLY IN THE 75TH TO 95TH
PERCENTILE...SO HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK SHEAR.

/MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  49  76  55  81 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         49  77  55  82 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  53  78  56  83 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           44  78  50  81 /  20  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     45  75  53  80 /  10  10  30  20
DURANT OK         51  74  53  80 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 181939
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
239 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES TIME TO TIME
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TONIGHT... INCREASED POPS TO FIFTEEN PERCENT ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
DUE TO RAINFALL AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. IN ADDITION... 850MB
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS SUGGEST LOW CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... LEADING TO LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THAT REGION BEING INCREASED BY A FEW DEGREES. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER OVER NORTH EASTERN COUNTIES DUE TO MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN NEW MEXICO.

SUNDAY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SPRINKLES OR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
LINGERED CLOSE TO THE UPPER LOW NEAR I-35 AND POINTS EAST. DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE FROM THE LACK OF MOISTURE. HIGHS AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER COMPARED TO TODAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
FORM OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA FROM INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD
OF A MID/UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THUS...KEPT LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN CHANCES IN THESE AREAS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...KEPT A DRY FORECAST
DURING THIS TIME FRAME DUE TO WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...THOUGH SOME
MODELS HINT AT SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY ARE FORECAST.
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A WEAK FRONT...AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS
INCREASE INTO THE 50S TO PERHAPS LOWER 60S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS
A MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION.
FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ROUGHLY IN THE 75TH TO 95TH
PERCENTILE...SO HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK SHEAR.

/MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  49  76  55  81 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         49  77  55  82 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  53  78  56  83 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           44  78  50  81 /  20  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     45  75  53  80 /  10  10  30  20
DURANT OK         51  74  53  80 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 181939
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
239 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES TIME TO TIME
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TONIGHT... INCREASED POPS TO FIFTEEN PERCENT ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
DUE TO RAINFALL AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. IN ADDITION... 850MB
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS SUGGEST LOW CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... LEADING TO LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THAT REGION BEING INCREASED BY A FEW DEGREES. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER OVER NORTH EASTERN COUNTIES DUE TO MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN NEW MEXICO.

SUNDAY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SPRINKLES OR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
LINGERED CLOSE TO THE UPPER LOW NEAR I-35 AND POINTS EAST. DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE FROM THE LACK OF MOISTURE. HIGHS AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER COMPARED TO TODAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
FORM OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA FROM INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD
OF A MID/UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THUS...KEPT LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN CHANCES IN THESE AREAS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...KEPT A DRY FORECAST
DURING THIS TIME FRAME DUE TO WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...THOUGH SOME
MODELS HINT AT SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY ARE FORECAST.
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A WEAK FRONT...AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS
INCREASE INTO THE 50S TO PERHAPS LOWER 60S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS
A MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION.
FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ROUGHLY IN THE 75TH TO 95TH
PERCENTILE...SO HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK SHEAR.

/MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  49  76  55  81 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         49  77  55  82 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  53  78  56  83 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           44  78  50  81 /  20  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     45  75  53  80 /  10  10  30  20
DURANT OK         51  74  53  80 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 181939
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
239 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES TIME TO TIME
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TONIGHT... INCREASED POPS TO FIFTEEN PERCENT ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
DUE TO RAINFALL AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. IN ADDITION... 850MB
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS SUGGEST LOW CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... LEADING TO LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THAT REGION BEING INCREASED BY A FEW DEGREES. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER OVER NORTH EASTERN COUNTIES DUE TO MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN NEW MEXICO.

SUNDAY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SPRINKLES OR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
LINGERED CLOSE TO THE UPPER LOW NEAR I-35 AND POINTS EAST. DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE FROM THE LACK OF MOISTURE. HIGHS AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER COMPARED TO TODAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
FORM OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA FROM INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD
OF A MID/UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THUS...KEPT LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN CHANCES IN THESE AREAS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...KEPT A DRY FORECAST
DURING THIS TIME FRAME DUE TO WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...THOUGH SOME
MODELS HINT AT SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY ARE FORECAST.
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A WEAK FRONT...AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS
INCREASE INTO THE 50S TO PERHAPS LOWER 60S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS
A MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION.
FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ROUGHLY IN THE 75TH TO 95TH
PERCENTILE...SO HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK SHEAR.

/MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  49  76  55  81 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         49  77  55  82 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  53  78  56  83 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           44  78  50  81 /  20  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     45  75  53  80 /  10  10  30  20
DURANT OK         51  74  53  80 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 181734
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1234 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

A FEW -SHRA MAY BE OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA 00-06Z...BUT DID
NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

VFR/MVFR CEILINGS 2100-5000 FT MAY DEVELOP SOUTHWEST OF
KWWR-KOKC AFTER 09Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE
OF OCCURRENCE.

EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT
ALL SITES BY 15Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AVIATION...
18/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH WINDS
VEERING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THICKENING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES NEAR
KGAG/KWWR BUT NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AT TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT IN DEFORMATION ZONE DOWNSTREAM FROM MID-LEVEL LOW OVER
NEW MEXICO AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TROUGH. AS THE
UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND PROGRESSES OVER REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
PHASING WITH S/WV SAID TROUGH...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. WILL LEAVE MENTION OF SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS STRONG
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT BRUSH NORTHERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA. GFS
STILL THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND FORECAST WILL FOLLOW
CLOSER TO ECM AND WRF SOLUTIONS.

MAINLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED REST OF REGION UNTIL STRONGER
SIGNAL FOR ORGANIZED RAIN ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LATEST
ECM MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN
PLAINS...YIELDING GREATER CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MAINLY OVER AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE-35. POPS WERE RAISED SLIGHTLY
WITH LATEST INITIALIZATIONS AND SPREAD A LITTLE FARTHER EAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  49  75  55 /   0   0  10  10
HOBART OK         72  48  76  55 /   0   0  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  76  50  77  55 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK           69  44  78  50 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     68  45  75  53 /   0   0  10  20
DURANT OK         75  50  74  52 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 181734
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1234 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

A FEW -SHRA MAY BE OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA 00-06Z...BUT DID
NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

VFR/MVFR CEILINGS 2100-5000 FT MAY DEVELOP SOUTHWEST OF
KWWR-KOKC AFTER 09Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE
OF OCCURRENCE.

EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT
ALL SITES BY 15Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AVIATION...
18/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH WINDS
VEERING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THICKENING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES NEAR
KGAG/KWWR BUT NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AT TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT IN DEFORMATION ZONE DOWNSTREAM FROM MID-LEVEL LOW OVER
NEW MEXICO AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TROUGH. AS THE
UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND PROGRESSES OVER REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
PHASING WITH S/WV SAID TROUGH...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. WILL LEAVE MENTION OF SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS STRONG
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT BRUSH NORTHERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA. GFS
STILL THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND FORECAST WILL FOLLOW
CLOSER TO ECM AND WRF SOLUTIONS.

MAINLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED REST OF REGION UNTIL STRONGER
SIGNAL FOR ORGANIZED RAIN ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LATEST
ECM MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN
PLAINS...YIELDING GREATER CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MAINLY OVER AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE-35. POPS WERE RAISED SLIGHTLY
WITH LATEST INITIALIZATIONS AND SPREAD A LITTLE FARTHER EAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  49  75  55 /   0   0  10  10
HOBART OK         72  48  76  55 /   0   0  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  76  50  77  55 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK           69  44  78  50 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     68  45  75  53 /   0   0  10  20
DURANT OK         75  50  74  52 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 181734
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1234 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

A FEW -SHRA MAY BE OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA 00-06Z...BUT DID
NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

VFR/MVFR CEILINGS 2100-5000 FT MAY DEVELOP SOUTHWEST OF
KWWR-KOKC AFTER 09Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE
OF OCCURRENCE.

EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT
ALL SITES BY 15Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AVIATION...
18/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH WINDS
VEERING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THICKENING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES NEAR
KGAG/KWWR BUT NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AT TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT IN DEFORMATION ZONE DOWNSTREAM FROM MID-LEVEL LOW OVER
NEW MEXICO AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TROUGH. AS THE
UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND PROGRESSES OVER REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
PHASING WITH S/WV SAID TROUGH...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. WILL LEAVE MENTION OF SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS STRONG
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT BRUSH NORTHERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA. GFS
STILL THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND FORECAST WILL FOLLOW
CLOSER TO ECM AND WRF SOLUTIONS.

MAINLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED REST OF REGION UNTIL STRONGER
SIGNAL FOR ORGANIZED RAIN ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LATEST
ECM MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN
PLAINS...YIELDING GREATER CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MAINLY OVER AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE-35. POPS WERE RAISED SLIGHTLY
WITH LATEST INITIALIZATIONS AND SPREAD A LITTLE FARTHER EAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  49  75  55 /   0   0  10  10
HOBART OK         72  48  76  55 /   0   0  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  76  50  77  55 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK           69  44  78  50 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     68  45  75  53 /   0   0  10  20
DURANT OK         75  50  74  52 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 181734
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1234 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

A FEW -SHRA MAY BE OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA 00-06Z...BUT DID
NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

VFR/MVFR CEILINGS 2100-5000 FT MAY DEVELOP SOUTHWEST OF
KWWR-KOKC AFTER 09Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE
OF OCCURRENCE.

EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT
ALL SITES BY 15Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AVIATION...
18/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH WINDS
VEERING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THICKENING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES NEAR
KGAG/KWWR BUT NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AT TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT IN DEFORMATION ZONE DOWNSTREAM FROM MID-LEVEL LOW OVER
NEW MEXICO AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TROUGH. AS THE
UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND PROGRESSES OVER REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
PHASING WITH S/WV SAID TROUGH...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. WILL LEAVE MENTION OF SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS STRONG
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT BRUSH NORTHERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA. GFS
STILL THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND FORECAST WILL FOLLOW
CLOSER TO ECM AND WRF SOLUTIONS.

MAINLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED REST OF REGION UNTIL STRONGER
SIGNAL FOR ORGANIZED RAIN ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LATEST
ECM MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN
PLAINS...YIELDING GREATER CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MAINLY OVER AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE-35. POPS WERE RAISED SLIGHTLY
WITH LATEST INITIALIZATIONS AND SPREAD A LITTLE FARTHER EAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  49  75  55 /   0   0  10  10
HOBART OK         72  48  76  55 /   0   0  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  76  50  77  55 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK           69  44  78  50 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     68  45  75  53 /   0   0  10  20
DURANT OK         75  50  74  52 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17/17



000
FXUS64 KTSA 181719
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1219 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SFC HI PRES CENTERED OVER SE NEB WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR
CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITES THIS PD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM OVER DOWNSTREAM FROM AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL
HI PLAINS.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CONUS TODAY HAS A SPLIT FLOW LOOK
IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST. A PAIR OF WAVES ARE
TRAVERSING THE FLOW BENEATH THE LARGER SCALE RIDGE OVER THE
WEST...ONE OF WHICH IS LIFTING UP INTO THE CENTRAL HI PLAINS
TODAY...AND ANOTHER IS DIVING DOWN THE WEST COAST. A HIGH LVL
MOISTURE PLUME DOWNSTREAM FROM THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING CLOUDINESS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM REACHING
NEAR FORECAST READINGS. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR AREA
TOMORROW IN A WEAKENING STATE...BUT MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A
FEW SPRINKLES OVER OUR AREA.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL AREA TAF
SITES THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP
FOR MVFR FOG AT KFYV FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DRY/MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND COLD FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED
INTO THE ARKLATX REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING. A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS BE POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY WITH NEXT COLD FRONT AS UPPER WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LOW STALLS OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST WITH SURFACE RIDGE/DRY AIR-MASS PERSISTING ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

UPPER WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AROUND LARGE
UPPER HIGH IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND INTO WESTERN OK/TX
PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME AS
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS WITH DEEPER MOISTURE CONFINED WELL TO THE
SOUTH ALONG THE GULF COAST. GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO OPERATIONAL
NUMERIC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   47  72  53  77 /   0   0  20  20
FSM   48  72  50  76 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   48  72  52  77 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   40  73  52  77 /   0   0  20  20
FYV   42  69  45  74 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   44  67  49  72 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   46  71  51  76 /   0   0  10  20
MIO   43  70  50  74 /   0   0  20  20
F10   47  72  52  78 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   49  72  51  77 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...30






000
FXUS64 KTSA 181719
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1219 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SFC HI PRES CENTERED OVER SE NEB WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR
CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITES THIS PD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM OVER DOWNSTREAM FROM AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL
HI PLAINS.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CONUS TODAY HAS A SPLIT FLOW LOOK
IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST. A PAIR OF WAVES ARE
TRAVERSING THE FLOW BENEATH THE LARGER SCALE RIDGE OVER THE
WEST...ONE OF WHICH IS LIFTING UP INTO THE CENTRAL HI PLAINS
TODAY...AND ANOTHER IS DIVING DOWN THE WEST COAST. A HIGH LVL
MOISTURE PLUME DOWNSTREAM FROM THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING CLOUDINESS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM REACHING
NEAR FORECAST READINGS. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR AREA
TOMORROW IN A WEAKENING STATE...BUT MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A
FEW SPRINKLES OVER OUR AREA.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL AREA TAF
SITES THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP
FOR MVFR FOG AT KFYV FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DRY/MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND COLD FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED
INTO THE ARKLATX REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING. A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS BE POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY WITH NEXT COLD FRONT AS UPPER WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LOW STALLS OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST WITH SURFACE RIDGE/DRY AIR-MASS PERSISTING ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

UPPER WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AROUND LARGE
UPPER HIGH IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND INTO WESTERN OK/TX
PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME AS
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS WITH DEEPER MOISTURE CONFINED WELL TO THE
SOUTH ALONG THE GULF COAST. GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO OPERATIONAL
NUMERIC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   47  72  53  77 /   0   0  20  20
FSM   48  72  50  76 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   48  72  52  77 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   40  73  52  77 /   0   0  20  20
FYV   42  69  45  74 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   44  67  49  72 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   46  71  51  76 /   0   0  10  20
MIO   43  70  50  74 /   0   0  20  20
F10   47  72  52  78 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   49  72  51  77 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...30






000
FXUS64 KTSA 181719
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1219 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SFC HI PRES CENTERED OVER SE NEB WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR
CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITES THIS PD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM OVER DOWNSTREAM FROM AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL
HI PLAINS.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CONUS TODAY HAS A SPLIT FLOW LOOK
IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST. A PAIR OF WAVES ARE
TRAVERSING THE FLOW BENEATH THE LARGER SCALE RIDGE OVER THE
WEST...ONE OF WHICH IS LIFTING UP INTO THE CENTRAL HI PLAINS
TODAY...AND ANOTHER IS DIVING DOWN THE WEST COAST. A HIGH LVL
MOISTURE PLUME DOWNSTREAM FROM THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING CLOUDINESS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM REACHING
NEAR FORECAST READINGS. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR AREA
TOMORROW IN A WEAKENING STATE...BUT MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A
FEW SPRINKLES OVER OUR AREA.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL AREA TAF
SITES THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP
FOR MVFR FOG AT KFYV FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DRY/MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND COLD FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED
INTO THE ARKLATX REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING. A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS BE POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY WITH NEXT COLD FRONT AS UPPER WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LOW STALLS OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST WITH SURFACE RIDGE/DRY AIR-MASS PERSISTING ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

UPPER WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AROUND LARGE
UPPER HIGH IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND INTO WESTERN OK/TX
PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME AS
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS WITH DEEPER MOISTURE CONFINED WELL TO THE
SOUTH ALONG THE GULF COAST. GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO OPERATIONAL
NUMERIC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   47  72  53  77 /   0   0  20  20
FSM   48  72  50  76 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   48  72  52  77 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   40  73  52  77 /   0   0  20  20
FYV   42  69  45  74 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   44  67  49  72 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   46  71  51  76 /   0   0  10  20
MIO   43  70  50  74 /   0   0  20  20
F10   47  72  52  78 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   49  72  51  77 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...30






000
FXUS64 KTSA 181719
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1219 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SFC HI PRES CENTERED OVER SE NEB WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR
CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITES THIS PD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM OVER DOWNSTREAM FROM AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL
HI PLAINS.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CONUS TODAY HAS A SPLIT FLOW LOOK
IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST. A PAIR OF WAVES ARE
TRAVERSING THE FLOW BENEATH THE LARGER SCALE RIDGE OVER THE
WEST...ONE OF WHICH IS LIFTING UP INTO THE CENTRAL HI PLAINS
TODAY...AND ANOTHER IS DIVING DOWN THE WEST COAST. A HIGH LVL
MOISTURE PLUME DOWNSTREAM FROM THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING CLOUDINESS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM REACHING
NEAR FORECAST READINGS. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR AREA
TOMORROW IN A WEAKENING STATE...BUT MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A
FEW SPRINKLES OVER OUR AREA.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL AREA TAF
SITES THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP
FOR MVFR FOG AT KFYV FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DRY/MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND COLD FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED
INTO THE ARKLATX REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING. A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS BE POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY WITH NEXT COLD FRONT AS UPPER WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LOW STALLS OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST WITH SURFACE RIDGE/DRY AIR-MASS PERSISTING ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

UPPER WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AROUND LARGE
UPPER HIGH IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND INTO WESTERN OK/TX
PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME AS
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS WITH DEEPER MOISTURE CONFINED WELL TO THE
SOUTH ALONG THE GULF COAST. GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO OPERATIONAL
NUMERIC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   47  72  53  77 /   0   0  20  20
FSM   48  72  50  76 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   48  72  52  77 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   40  73  52  77 /   0   0  20  20
FYV   42  69  45  74 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   44  67  49  72 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   46  71  51  76 /   0   0  10  20
MIO   43  70  50  74 /   0   0  20  20
F10   47  72  52  78 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   49  72  51  77 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...30






000
FXUS64 KTSA 181618
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1118 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CONUS TODAY HAS A SPLIT FLOW LOOK
IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST. A PAIR OF WAVES ARE
TRAVERSING THE FLOW BENEATH THE LARGER SCALE RIDGE OVER THE
WEST...ONE OF WHICH IS LIFTING UP INTO THE CENTRAL HI PLAINS
TODAY...AND ANOTHER IS DIVING DOWN THE WEST COAST. A HIGH LVL
MOISTURE PLUME DOWNSTREAM FROM THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING CLOUDINESS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM REACHING
NEAR FORECAST READINGS. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR AREA
TOMORROW IN A WEAKENING STATE...BUT MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A
FEW SPRINKLES OVER OUR AREA.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL AREA TAF
SITES THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP
FOR MVFR FOG AT KFYV FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DRY/MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND COLD FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED
INTO THE ARKLATX REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING. A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS BE POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY WITH NEXT COLD FRONT AS UPPER WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LOW STALLS OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST WITH SURFACE RIDGE/DRY AIR-MASS PERSISTING ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

UPPER WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AROUND LARGE
UPPER HIGH IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND INTO WESTERN OK/TX
PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME AS
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS WITH DEEPER MOISTURE CONFINED WELL TO THE
SOUTH ALONG THE GULF COAST. GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO OPERATIONAL
NUMERIC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  47  72  53 /   0   0   0  20
FSM   74  48  72  50 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   73  48  72  52 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   68  40  73  52 /   0   0   0  20
FYV   67  42  69  45 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   66  44  67  49 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   71  46  71  51 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   66  43  70  50 /   0   0   0  20
F10   70  47  72  52 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   76  49  72  51 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 181618
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1118 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CONUS TODAY HAS A SPLIT FLOW LOOK
IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST. A PAIR OF WAVES ARE
TRAVERSING THE FLOW BENEATH THE LARGER SCALE RIDGE OVER THE
WEST...ONE OF WHICH IS LIFTING UP INTO THE CENTRAL HI PLAINS
TODAY...AND ANOTHER IS DIVING DOWN THE WEST COAST. A HIGH LVL
MOISTURE PLUME DOWNSTREAM FROM THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING CLOUDINESS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM REACHING
NEAR FORECAST READINGS. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR AREA
TOMORROW IN A WEAKENING STATE...BUT MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A
FEW SPRINKLES OVER OUR AREA.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL AREA TAF
SITES THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP
FOR MVFR FOG AT KFYV FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DRY/MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND COLD FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED
INTO THE ARKLATX REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING. A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS BE POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY WITH NEXT COLD FRONT AS UPPER WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LOW STALLS OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST WITH SURFACE RIDGE/DRY AIR-MASS PERSISTING ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

UPPER WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AROUND LARGE
UPPER HIGH IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND INTO WESTERN OK/TX
PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME AS
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS WITH DEEPER MOISTURE CONFINED WELL TO THE
SOUTH ALONG THE GULF COAST. GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO OPERATIONAL
NUMERIC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  47  72  53 /   0   0   0  20
FSM   74  48  72  50 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   73  48  72  52 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   68  40  73  52 /   0   0   0  20
FYV   67  42  69  45 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   66  44  67  49 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   71  46  71  51 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   66  43  70  50 /   0   0   0  20
F10   70  47  72  52 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   76  49  72  51 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30





000
FXUS64 KOUN 181122 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
622 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
18/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH WINDS
VEERING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THICKENING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES NEAR
KGAG/KWWR BUT NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AT TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT IN DEFORMATION ZONE DOWNSTREAM FROM MID-LEVEL LOW OVER
NEW MEXICO AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TROUGH. AS THE
UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND PROGRESSES OVER REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
PHASING WITH S/WV SAID TROUGH...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. WILL LEAVE MENTION OF SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS STRONG
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT BRUSH NORTHERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA. GFS
STILL THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND FORECAST WILL FOLLOW
CLOSER TO ECM AND WRF SOLUTIONS.

MAINLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED REST OF REGION UNTIL STRONGER
SIGNAL FOR ORGANIZED RAIN ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LATEST
ECM MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN
PLAINS...YIELDING GREATER CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MAINLY OVER AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE-35. POPS WERE RAISED SLIGHTLY
WITH LATEST INITIALIZATIONS AND SPREAD A LITTLE FARTHER EAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  49  75  55 /   0   0  10  10
HOBART OK         72  48  76  55 /   0   0  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  76  50  77  55 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK           69  44  78  50 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     68  45  75  53 /   0   0  10  20
DURANT OK         75  50  74  52 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/99/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 181122 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
622 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
18/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH WINDS
VEERING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THICKENING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES NEAR
KGAG/KWWR BUT NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AT TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT IN DEFORMATION ZONE DOWNSTREAM FROM MID-LEVEL LOW OVER
NEW MEXICO AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TROUGH. AS THE
UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND PROGRESSES OVER REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
PHASING WITH S/WV SAID TROUGH...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. WILL LEAVE MENTION OF SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS STRONG
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT BRUSH NORTHERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA. GFS
STILL THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND FORECAST WILL FOLLOW
CLOSER TO ECM AND WRF SOLUTIONS.

MAINLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED REST OF REGION UNTIL STRONGER
SIGNAL FOR ORGANIZED RAIN ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LATEST
ECM MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN
PLAINS...YIELDING GREATER CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MAINLY OVER AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE-35. POPS WERE RAISED SLIGHTLY
WITH LATEST INITIALIZATIONS AND SPREAD A LITTLE FARTHER EAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  49  75  55 /   0   0  10  10
HOBART OK         72  48  76  55 /   0   0  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  76  50  77  55 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK           69  44  78  50 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     68  45  75  53 /   0   0  10  20
DURANT OK         75  50  74  52 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/99/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 181122 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
622 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
18/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH WINDS
VEERING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THICKENING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES NEAR
KGAG/KWWR BUT NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AT TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT IN DEFORMATION ZONE DOWNSTREAM FROM MID-LEVEL LOW OVER
NEW MEXICO AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TROUGH. AS THE
UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND PROGRESSES OVER REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
PHASING WITH S/WV SAID TROUGH...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. WILL LEAVE MENTION OF SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS STRONG
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT BRUSH NORTHERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA. GFS
STILL THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND FORECAST WILL FOLLOW
CLOSER TO ECM AND WRF SOLUTIONS.

MAINLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED REST OF REGION UNTIL STRONGER
SIGNAL FOR ORGANIZED RAIN ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LATEST
ECM MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN
PLAINS...YIELDING GREATER CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MAINLY OVER AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE-35. POPS WERE RAISED SLIGHTLY
WITH LATEST INITIALIZATIONS AND SPREAD A LITTLE FARTHER EAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  49  75  55 /   0   0  10  10
HOBART OK         72  48  76  55 /   0   0  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  76  50  77  55 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK           69  44  78  50 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     68  45  75  53 /   0   0  10  20
DURANT OK         75  50  74  52 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/99/11




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