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000
FXUS64 KTSA 190544
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1144 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VARYING CEILINGS BETWEEN LIFR TO MVFR WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH POTENTIAL LIFR TO MVFR
VISIBILITIES INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MODEL
SOUNDINS INDICATE CEILINGS TRYING TO LIFT BACK TO MVFR WITH VFR
VISIBILITIES FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

UPDATE...

PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN UPDATED THRU TOMORROW NIGHT. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW.

DISCUSSION...

AFTER PERUSING THE NEW 00Z DATA...WHICH SHOWS A CONSISTENT TREND
OF KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN ON FRIDAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
RED RIVER...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN MODIFIED THRU FRIDAY EVENING. 50
PERCENT CHANCES WERE MAINTAINED DOWN NEAR THE RED RIVER...BUT
THE GRADIENT WAS MADE MUCH TIGHTER NORTH OF THERE...LOWERING
CHANCES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND CONFINING
THEM TO SE OK AND W CENTRAL AR. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE DONE BY 00Z SATURDAY...SO THE SLIGHT CHANCES WERE REMOVED
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

LACY


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

UPDATE...

SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO LOW TEMPS WERE MADE TONIGHT. SEE DISCUSSION
BELOW.

DISCUSSION...

A LOW CLOUD BLANKET WILL PERSIST THRU THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS HAVE HELD STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR
FROM THE NORTH WILL BE ENOUGH TO REALLY LOWER DEWPOINTS...THUS
CURRENT DEWPOINTS MAY BE THE BOTTOM LIMIT ON TEMPS TONIGHT IN MOST
AREAS. USING INPUT FROM THE LATEST HRRR...OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE
TWEAKED UPWARD JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE...WITH THE LARGEST CHANGE
OVER IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THE LATEST DATA ALSO INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE RAIN FROM THE
APPROACHING WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL FALL
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IN THE 00Z
DATA...POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED FOR FRIDAY MORNING.

LACY


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   38  44  34  50 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   40  46  36  49 /  10  20  10   0
MLC   39  46  37  51 /  10  20  10  10
BVO   35  42  32  49 /  10  10  10   0
FYV   38  43  34  46 /  10  10  10   0
BYV   37  41  34  45 /  10  10  10   0
MKO   39  44  35  50 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   37  42  32  48 /  10  10  10   0
F10   39  44  36  51 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   43  48  39  52 /  20  50  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20





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000
FXUS64 KOUN 190536
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1136 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS.

LIFR CONDITIONS WITH -DZ NEAR KOKC AND KOUN WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH 16Z...THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE THESE CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE AS EARLY 09Z. LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR KWWR AND KGAG MAY
LINGER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THINK LIFR CONDITIONS WILL STAY JUST
NORTH OF KSPS AND KLAW...BUT WILL MONITOR AS THESE LOCATIONS MAY
HAVE THESE LOWER CONDITIONS AS WELL. KPNC MAY BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR
AND IFR...BUT THINK MVFR WILL MAINLY OCCUR.

GENERALLY WENT WITH SLIGHTLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AFTER 16Z...THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW.
AT BEST...LOCATIONS WILL BE MVFR BY 00Z SATURDAY.

ISO-SCT -SHRA MAY MOVE INTO SW OK AND N TX THROUGH 20Z. WENT WITH
VCSH NEAR KSPS...KLAW...AND KHBR AS NOT SURE THESE SITES WILL BE
DIRECTLY AFFECTED.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

UPDATE...
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FA. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS... LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE STARTING LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT... TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY DESPITE THE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS.

HAVE ADJUSTED POP GRIDS TO ADJUST FOR START OF RAIN CHANCES ALSO
ADJUSTED AREAS OF MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG IN WX GRIDS.
TWEAKED HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES OUT SOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS.

OVERALL...DID NOT GO AS PESSIMISTIC WITH THIS SET OF TAFS.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH.
LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR KWWR AND KGAG MAY LINGER FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OF THE REST OF THE
AREA...MAINLY 06-17Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION AS CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

ISO-SCT -SHRA MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 11Z. ADDED TEMPO
MENTION AT KSPS 13-15Z WHERE CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTH FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE LIQUID AS THERE LIKELY WILL NOT BE MUCH
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION AREA SOUTH AND THE COOLER LOW-
LEVEL AIR IN THE NORTH. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE
HUMID SO WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AGAIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND PERSISTS NEARBY ON
MONDAY... BUT THERE WILL NOT HAVE BEEN MUCH TIME FOR MOISTURE
RETURN SO POPS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK... THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN AS WE
APPROACH THE HOLIDAYS.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

25/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 190536
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1136 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS.

LIFR CONDITIONS WITH -DZ NEAR KOKC AND KOUN WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH 16Z...THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE THESE CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE AS EARLY 09Z. LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR KWWR AND KGAG MAY
LINGER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THINK LIFR CONDITIONS WILL STAY JUST
NORTH OF KSPS AND KLAW...BUT WILL MONITOR AS THESE LOCATIONS MAY
HAVE THESE LOWER CONDITIONS AS WELL. KPNC MAY BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR
AND IFR...BUT THINK MVFR WILL MAINLY OCCUR.

GENERALLY WENT WITH SLIGHTLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AFTER 16Z...THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW.
AT BEST...LOCATIONS WILL BE MVFR BY 00Z SATURDAY.

ISO-SCT -SHRA MAY MOVE INTO SW OK AND N TX THROUGH 20Z. WENT WITH
VCSH NEAR KSPS...KLAW...AND KHBR AS NOT SURE THESE SITES WILL BE
DIRECTLY AFFECTED.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

UPDATE...
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FA. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS... LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE STARTING LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT... TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY DESPITE THE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS.

HAVE ADJUSTED POP GRIDS TO ADJUST FOR START OF RAIN CHANCES ALSO
ADJUSTED AREAS OF MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG IN WX GRIDS.
TWEAKED HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES OUT SOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS.

OVERALL...DID NOT GO AS PESSIMISTIC WITH THIS SET OF TAFS.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH.
LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR KWWR AND KGAG MAY LINGER FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OF THE REST OF THE
AREA...MAINLY 06-17Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION AS CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

ISO-SCT -SHRA MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 11Z. ADDED TEMPO
MENTION AT KSPS 13-15Z WHERE CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTH FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE LIQUID AS THERE LIKELY WILL NOT BE MUCH
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION AREA SOUTH AND THE COOLER LOW-
LEVEL AIR IN THE NORTH. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE
HUMID SO WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AGAIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND PERSISTS NEARBY ON
MONDAY... BUT THERE WILL NOT HAVE BEEN MUCH TIME FOR MOISTURE
RETURN SO POPS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK... THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN AS WE
APPROACH THE HOLIDAYS.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

25/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 190536
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1136 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS.

LIFR CONDITIONS WITH -DZ NEAR KOKC AND KOUN WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH 16Z...THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE THESE CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE AS EARLY 09Z. LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR KWWR AND KGAG MAY
LINGER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THINK LIFR CONDITIONS WILL STAY JUST
NORTH OF KSPS AND KLAW...BUT WILL MONITOR AS THESE LOCATIONS MAY
HAVE THESE LOWER CONDITIONS AS WELL. KPNC MAY BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR
AND IFR...BUT THINK MVFR WILL MAINLY OCCUR.

GENERALLY WENT WITH SLIGHTLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AFTER 16Z...THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW.
AT BEST...LOCATIONS WILL BE MVFR BY 00Z SATURDAY.

ISO-SCT -SHRA MAY MOVE INTO SW OK AND N TX THROUGH 20Z. WENT WITH
VCSH NEAR KSPS...KLAW...AND KHBR AS NOT SURE THESE SITES WILL BE
DIRECTLY AFFECTED.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

UPDATE...
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FA. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS... LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE STARTING LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT... TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY DESPITE THE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS.

HAVE ADJUSTED POP GRIDS TO ADJUST FOR START OF RAIN CHANCES ALSO
ADJUSTED AREAS OF MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG IN WX GRIDS.
TWEAKED HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES OUT SOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS.

OVERALL...DID NOT GO AS PESSIMISTIC WITH THIS SET OF TAFS.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH.
LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR KWWR AND KGAG MAY LINGER FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OF THE REST OF THE
AREA...MAINLY 06-17Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION AS CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

ISO-SCT -SHRA MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 11Z. ADDED TEMPO
MENTION AT KSPS 13-15Z WHERE CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTH FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE LIQUID AS THERE LIKELY WILL NOT BE MUCH
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION AREA SOUTH AND THE COOLER LOW-
LEVEL AIR IN THE NORTH. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE
HUMID SO WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AGAIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND PERSISTS NEARBY ON
MONDAY... BUT THERE WILL NOT HAVE BEEN MUCH TIME FOR MOISTURE
RETURN SO POPS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK... THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN AS WE
APPROACH THE HOLIDAYS.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

25/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 190536
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1136 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS.

LIFR CONDITIONS WITH -DZ NEAR KOKC AND KOUN WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH 16Z...THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE THESE CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE AS EARLY 09Z. LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR KWWR AND KGAG MAY
LINGER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THINK LIFR CONDITIONS WILL STAY JUST
NORTH OF KSPS AND KLAW...BUT WILL MONITOR AS THESE LOCATIONS MAY
HAVE THESE LOWER CONDITIONS AS WELL. KPNC MAY BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR
AND IFR...BUT THINK MVFR WILL MAINLY OCCUR.

GENERALLY WENT WITH SLIGHTLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AFTER 16Z...THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW.
AT BEST...LOCATIONS WILL BE MVFR BY 00Z SATURDAY.

ISO-SCT -SHRA MAY MOVE INTO SW OK AND N TX THROUGH 20Z. WENT WITH
VCSH NEAR KSPS...KLAW...AND KHBR AS NOT SURE THESE SITES WILL BE
DIRECTLY AFFECTED.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

UPDATE...
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FA. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS... LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE STARTING LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT... TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY DESPITE THE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS.

HAVE ADJUSTED POP GRIDS TO ADJUST FOR START OF RAIN CHANCES ALSO
ADJUSTED AREAS OF MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG IN WX GRIDS.
TWEAKED HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES OUT SOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS.

OVERALL...DID NOT GO AS PESSIMISTIC WITH THIS SET OF TAFS.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH.
LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR KWWR AND KGAG MAY LINGER FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OF THE REST OF THE
AREA...MAINLY 06-17Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION AS CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

ISO-SCT -SHRA MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 11Z. ADDED TEMPO
MENTION AT KSPS 13-15Z WHERE CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTH FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE LIQUID AS THERE LIKELY WILL NOT BE MUCH
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION AREA SOUTH AND THE COOLER LOW-
LEVEL AIR IN THE NORTH. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE
HUMID SO WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AGAIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND PERSISTS NEARBY ON
MONDAY... BUT THERE WILL NOT HAVE BEEN MUCH TIME FOR MOISTURE
RETURN SO POPS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK... THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN AS WE
APPROACH THE HOLIDAYS.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

25/03




000
FXUS64 KTSA 190345
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
945 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...

PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN UPDATED THRU TOMORROW NIGHT. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER PERUSING THE NEW 00Z DATA...WHICH SHOWS A CONSISTENT TREND
OF KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN ON FRIDAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
RED RIVER...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN MODIFIED THRU FRIDAY EVENING. 50
PERCENT CHANCES WERE MAINTAINED DOWN NEAR THE RED RIVER...BUT
THE GRADIENT WAS MADE MUCH TIGHTER NORTH OF THERE...LOWERING
CHANCES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND CONFINING
THEM TO SE OK AND W CENTRAL AR. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE DONE BY 00Z SATURDAY...SO THE SLIGHT CHANCES WERE REMOVED
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

UPDATE...

SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO LOW TEMPS WERE MADE TONIGHT. SEE DISCUSSION
BELOW.

DISCUSSION...

A LOW CLOUD BLANKET WILL PERSIST THRU THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS HAVE HELD STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR
FROM THE NORTH WILL BE ENOUGH TO REALLY LOWER DEWPOINTS...THUS
CURRENT DEWPOINTS MAY BE THE BOTTOM LIMIT ON TEMPS TONIGHT IN MOST
AREAS. USING INPUT FROM THE LATEST HRRR...OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE
TWEAKED UPWARD JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE...WITH THE LARGEST CHANGE
OVER IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THE LATEST DATA ALSO INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE RAIN FROM THE
APPROACHING WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL FALL
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IN THE 00Z
DATA...POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED FOR FRIDAY MORNING.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE
LIFR TO IFR CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.
AREAS OF IFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS LOOK TO
IMPROVE SOME FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS POSSIBLY LIFTING BACK
TO MVFR WITH VFR VISIBILITIES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOCKED IN ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY SLIDING THROUGH THE
MOUNTAIN WEST REGION WILL APPROACH THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES
FRIDAY. HIGHEST QPF SIGNALS REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ONGOING THEME OF KEEPING HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS SE OK AND NW AR THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. A LITTLE FASTER
OF THE SYSTEM PER LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A QUICKER END TO
PRECIP ON FRIDAY EVENING...SO IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A MENTION OF
MIXED PRECIP WILL BE REQUIRED ACROSS FAR NE OK/NW AR AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS. NEXT QUICK MOVING TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY..AND WILL
OFFER AT BEST LIMITED CHANCES FOR RAIN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.
A STRONGER TROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POISED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES SOME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
TIME...DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE XMAS HOLIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   38  44  34  50 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   40  46  36  49 /  10  20  10  10
MLC   39  46  37  51 /  10  20  10  10
BVO   35  42  32  49 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   38  43  34  46 /  10  10  10  10
BYV   37  41  34  45 /  10  10  10  10
MKO   39  44  35  50 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   37  42  32  48 /  10  10  10   0
F10   39  44  36  51 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   43  48  39  52 /  20  50  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 190345
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
945 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...

PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN UPDATED THRU TOMORROW NIGHT. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER PERUSING THE NEW 00Z DATA...WHICH SHOWS A CONSISTENT TREND
OF KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN ON FRIDAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
RED RIVER...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN MODIFIED THRU FRIDAY EVENING. 50
PERCENT CHANCES WERE MAINTAINED DOWN NEAR THE RED RIVER...BUT
THE GRADIENT WAS MADE MUCH TIGHTER NORTH OF THERE...LOWERING
CHANCES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND CONFINING
THEM TO SE OK AND W CENTRAL AR. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE DONE BY 00Z SATURDAY...SO THE SLIGHT CHANCES WERE REMOVED
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

UPDATE...

SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO LOW TEMPS WERE MADE TONIGHT. SEE DISCUSSION
BELOW.

DISCUSSION...

A LOW CLOUD BLANKET WILL PERSIST THRU THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS HAVE HELD STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR
FROM THE NORTH WILL BE ENOUGH TO REALLY LOWER DEWPOINTS...THUS
CURRENT DEWPOINTS MAY BE THE BOTTOM LIMIT ON TEMPS TONIGHT IN MOST
AREAS. USING INPUT FROM THE LATEST HRRR...OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE
TWEAKED UPWARD JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE...WITH THE LARGEST CHANGE
OVER IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THE LATEST DATA ALSO INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE RAIN FROM THE
APPROACHING WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL FALL
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IN THE 00Z
DATA...POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED FOR FRIDAY MORNING.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE
LIFR TO IFR CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.
AREAS OF IFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS LOOK TO
IMPROVE SOME FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS POSSIBLY LIFTING BACK
TO MVFR WITH VFR VISIBILITIES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOCKED IN ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY SLIDING THROUGH THE
MOUNTAIN WEST REGION WILL APPROACH THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES
FRIDAY. HIGHEST QPF SIGNALS REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ONGOING THEME OF KEEPING HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS SE OK AND NW AR THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. A LITTLE FASTER
OF THE SYSTEM PER LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A QUICKER END TO
PRECIP ON FRIDAY EVENING...SO IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A MENTION OF
MIXED PRECIP WILL BE REQUIRED ACROSS FAR NE OK/NW AR AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS. NEXT QUICK MOVING TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY..AND WILL
OFFER AT BEST LIMITED CHANCES FOR RAIN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.
A STRONGER TROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POISED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES SOME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
TIME...DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE XMAS HOLIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   38  44  34  50 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   40  46  36  49 /  10  20  10  10
MLC   39  46  37  51 /  10  20  10  10
BVO   35  42  32  49 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   38  43  34  46 /  10  10  10  10
BYV   37  41  34  45 /  10  10  10  10
MKO   39  44  35  50 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   37  42  32  48 /  10  10  10   0
F10   39  44  36  51 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   43  48  39  52 /  20  50  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30






000
FXUS64 KTSA 190345
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
945 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...

PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN UPDATED THRU TOMORROW NIGHT. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER PERUSING THE NEW 00Z DATA...WHICH SHOWS A CONSISTENT TREND
OF KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN ON FRIDAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
RED RIVER...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN MODIFIED THRU FRIDAY EVENING. 50
PERCENT CHANCES WERE MAINTAINED DOWN NEAR THE RED RIVER...BUT
THE GRADIENT WAS MADE MUCH TIGHTER NORTH OF THERE...LOWERING
CHANCES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND CONFINING
THEM TO SE OK AND W CENTRAL AR. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE DONE BY 00Z SATURDAY...SO THE SLIGHT CHANCES WERE REMOVED
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

UPDATE...

SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO LOW TEMPS WERE MADE TONIGHT. SEE DISCUSSION
BELOW.

DISCUSSION...

A LOW CLOUD BLANKET WILL PERSIST THRU THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS HAVE HELD STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR
FROM THE NORTH WILL BE ENOUGH TO REALLY LOWER DEWPOINTS...THUS
CURRENT DEWPOINTS MAY BE THE BOTTOM LIMIT ON TEMPS TONIGHT IN MOST
AREAS. USING INPUT FROM THE LATEST HRRR...OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE
TWEAKED UPWARD JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE...WITH THE LARGEST CHANGE
OVER IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THE LATEST DATA ALSO INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE RAIN FROM THE
APPROACHING WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL FALL
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IN THE 00Z
DATA...POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED FOR FRIDAY MORNING.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE
LIFR TO IFR CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.
AREAS OF IFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS LOOK TO
IMPROVE SOME FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS POSSIBLY LIFTING BACK
TO MVFR WITH VFR VISIBILITIES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOCKED IN ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY SLIDING THROUGH THE
MOUNTAIN WEST REGION WILL APPROACH THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES
FRIDAY. HIGHEST QPF SIGNALS REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ONGOING THEME OF KEEPING HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS SE OK AND NW AR THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. A LITTLE FASTER
OF THE SYSTEM PER LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A QUICKER END TO
PRECIP ON FRIDAY EVENING...SO IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A MENTION OF
MIXED PRECIP WILL BE REQUIRED ACROSS FAR NE OK/NW AR AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS. NEXT QUICK MOVING TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY..AND WILL
OFFER AT BEST LIMITED CHANCES FOR RAIN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.
A STRONGER TROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POISED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES SOME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
TIME...DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE XMAS HOLIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   38  44  34  50 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   40  46  36  49 /  10  20  10  10
MLC   39  46  37  51 /  10  20  10  10
BVO   35  42  32  49 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   38  43  34  46 /  10  10  10  10
BYV   37  41  34  45 /  10  10  10  10
MKO   39  44  35  50 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   37  42  32  48 /  10  10  10   0
F10   39  44  36  51 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   43  48  39  52 /  20  50  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30





000
FXUS64 KOUN 190138 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
738 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FA. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS... LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE STARTING LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT... TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY DESPITE THE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS.

HAVE ADJUSTED POP GRIDS TO ADJUST FOR START OF RAIN CHANCES ALSO
ADJUSTED AREAS OF MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG IN WX GRIDS.
TWEAKED HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES OUT SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS.

OVERALL...DID NOT GO AS PESSIMISTIC WITH THIS SET OF TAFS.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH.
LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR KWWR AND KGAG MAY LINGER FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OF THE REST OF THE
AREA...MAINLY 06-17Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION AS CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

ISO-SCT -SHRA MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 11Z. ADDED TEMPO
MENTION AT KSPS 13-15Z WHERE CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTH FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE LIQUID AS THERE LIKELY WILL NOT BE MUCH
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION AREA SOUTH AND THE COOLER LOW-
LEVEL AIR IN THE NORTH. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE
HUMID SO WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AGAIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND PERSISTS NEARBY ON
MONDAY... BUT THERE WILL NOT HAVE BEEN MUCH TIME FOR MOISTURE
RETURN SO POPS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK... THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN AS WE
APPROACH THE HOLIDAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  38  45  34  50 /  20  20  10   0
HOBART OK         38  45  32  50 /  20  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  48  37  52 /  20  30  10   0
GAGE OK           32  45  29  52 /  10  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     33  42  31  49 /  10  10  10   0
DURANT OK         41  48  38  51 /  30  40  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 190138 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
738 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FA. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS... LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE STARTING LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT... TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY DESPITE THE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS.

HAVE ADJUSTED POP GRIDS TO ADJUST FOR START OF RAIN CHANCES ALSO
ADJUSTED AREAS OF MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG IN WX GRIDS.
TWEAKED HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES OUT SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS.

OVERALL...DID NOT GO AS PESSIMISTIC WITH THIS SET OF TAFS.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH.
LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR KWWR AND KGAG MAY LINGER FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OF THE REST OF THE
AREA...MAINLY 06-17Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION AS CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

ISO-SCT -SHRA MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 11Z. ADDED TEMPO
MENTION AT KSPS 13-15Z WHERE CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTH FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE LIQUID AS THERE LIKELY WILL NOT BE MUCH
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION AREA SOUTH AND THE COOLER LOW-
LEVEL AIR IN THE NORTH. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE
HUMID SO WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AGAIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND PERSISTS NEARBY ON
MONDAY... BUT THERE WILL NOT HAVE BEEN MUCH TIME FOR MOISTURE
RETURN SO POPS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK... THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN AS WE
APPROACH THE HOLIDAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  38  45  34  50 /  20  20  10   0
HOBART OK         38  45  32  50 /  20  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  48  37  52 /  20  30  10   0
GAGE OK           32  45  29  52 /  10  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     33  42  31  49 /  10  10  10   0
DURANT OK         41  48  38  51 /  30  40  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 190138 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
738 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FA. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS... LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE STARTING LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT... TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY DESPITE THE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS.

HAVE ADJUSTED POP GRIDS TO ADJUST FOR START OF RAIN CHANCES ALSO
ADJUSTED AREAS OF MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG IN WX GRIDS.
TWEAKED HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES OUT SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS.

OVERALL...DID NOT GO AS PESSIMISTIC WITH THIS SET OF TAFS.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH.
LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR KWWR AND KGAG MAY LINGER FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OF THE REST OF THE
AREA...MAINLY 06-17Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION AS CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

ISO-SCT -SHRA MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 11Z. ADDED TEMPO
MENTION AT KSPS 13-15Z WHERE CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTH FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE LIQUID AS THERE LIKELY WILL NOT BE MUCH
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION AREA SOUTH AND THE COOLER LOW-
LEVEL AIR IN THE NORTH. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE
HUMID SO WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AGAIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND PERSISTS NEARBY ON
MONDAY... BUT THERE WILL NOT HAVE BEEN MUCH TIME FOR MOISTURE
RETURN SO POPS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK... THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN AS WE
APPROACH THE HOLIDAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  38  45  34  50 /  20  20  10   0
HOBART OK         38  45  32  50 /  20  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  48  37  52 /  20  30  10   0
GAGE OK           32  45  29  52 /  10  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     33  42  31  49 /  10  10  10   0
DURANT OK         41  48  38  51 /  30  40  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 190138 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
738 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FA. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS... LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE STARTING LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT... TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY DESPITE THE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS.

HAVE ADJUSTED POP GRIDS TO ADJUST FOR START OF RAIN CHANCES ALSO
ADJUSTED AREAS OF MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG IN WX GRIDS.
TWEAKED HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES OUT SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS.

OVERALL...DID NOT GO AS PESSIMISTIC WITH THIS SET OF TAFS.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH.
LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR KWWR AND KGAG MAY LINGER FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OF THE REST OF THE
AREA...MAINLY 06-17Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION AS CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

ISO-SCT -SHRA MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 11Z. ADDED TEMPO
MENTION AT KSPS 13-15Z WHERE CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTH FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE LIQUID AS THERE LIKELY WILL NOT BE MUCH
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION AREA SOUTH AND THE COOLER LOW-
LEVEL AIR IN THE NORTH. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE
HUMID SO WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AGAIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND PERSISTS NEARBY ON
MONDAY... BUT THERE WILL NOT HAVE BEEN MUCH TIME FOR MOISTURE
RETURN SO POPS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK... THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN AS WE
APPROACH THE HOLIDAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  38  45  34  50 /  20  20  10   0
HOBART OK         38  45  32  50 /  20  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  48  37  52 /  20  30  10   0
GAGE OK           32  45  29  52 /  10  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     33  42  31  49 /  10  10  10   0
DURANT OK         41  48  38  51 /  30  40  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 190138 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
738 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FA. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS... LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE STARTING LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT... TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY DESPITE THE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS.

HAVE ADJUSTED POP GRIDS TO ADJUST FOR START OF RAIN CHANCES ALSO
ADJUSTED AREAS OF MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG IN WX GRIDS.
TWEAKED HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES OUT SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS.

OVERALL...DID NOT GO AS PESSIMISTIC WITH THIS SET OF TAFS.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH.
LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR KWWR AND KGAG MAY LINGER FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OF THE REST OF THE
AREA...MAINLY 06-17Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION AS CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

ISO-SCT -SHRA MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 11Z. ADDED TEMPO
MENTION AT KSPS 13-15Z WHERE CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTH FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE LIQUID AS THERE LIKELY WILL NOT BE MUCH
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION AREA SOUTH AND THE COOLER LOW-
LEVEL AIR IN THE NORTH. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE
HUMID SO WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AGAIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND PERSISTS NEARBY ON
MONDAY... BUT THERE WILL NOT HAVE BEEN MUCH TIME FOR MOISTURE
RETURN SO POPS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK... THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN AS WE
APPROACH THE HOLIDAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  38  45  34  50 /  20  20  10   0
HOBART OK         38  45  32  50 /  20  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  48  37  52 /  20  30  10   0
GAGE OK           32  45  29  52 /  10  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     33  42  31  49 /  10  10  10   0
DURANT OK         41  48  38  51 /  30  40  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17




000
FXUS64 KTSA 190053
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
653 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...

SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO LOW TEMPS WERE MADE TONIGHT. SEE DISCUSSION
BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A LOW CLOUD BLANKET WILL PERSIST THRU THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS HAVE HELD STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR
FROM THE NORTH WILL BE ENOUGH TO REALLY LOWER DEWPOINTS...THUS
CURRENT DEWPOINTS MAY BE THE BOTTOM LIMIT ON TEMPS TONIGHT IN MOST
AREAS. USING INPUT FROM THE LATEST HRRR...OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE
TWEAKED UPWARD JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE...WITH THE LARGEST CHANGE
OVER IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THE LATEST DATA ALSO INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE RAIN FROM THE
APPROACHING WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL FALL
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IN THE 00Z
DATA...POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED FOR FRIDAY MORNING.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE
LIFR TO IFR CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.
AREAS OF IFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS LOOK TO
IMPROVE SOME FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS POSSIBLY LIFTING BACK
TO MVFR WITH VFR VISIBILITIES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOCKED IN ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY SLIDING THROUGH THE
MOUNTAIN WEST REGION WILL APPROACH THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES
FRIDAY. HIGHEST QPF SIGNALS REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ONGOING THEME OF KEEPING HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS SE OK AND NW AR THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. A LITTLE FASTER
OF THE SYSTEM PER LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A QUICKER END TO
PRECIP ON FRIDAY EVENING...SO IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A MENTION OF
MIXED PRECIP WILL BE REQUIRED ACROSS FAR NE OK/NW AR AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS. NEXT QUICK MOVING TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY..AND WILL
OFFER AT BEST LIMITED CHANCES FOR RAIN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.
A STRONGER TROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POISED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES SOME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
TIME...DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE XMAS HOLIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   38  44  34  50 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   40  46  36  49 /  20  30  20  10
MLC   39  46  37  51 /  20  30  10  10
BVO   35  42  32  49 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   38  43  34  46 /  10  20  20  10
BYV   37  41  34  45 /  10  20  20  10
MKO   39  44  35  50 /  10  20  10  10
MIO   37  42  32  48 /  10  10  10   0
F10   39  44  36  51 /  20  20  10  10
HHW   43  48  39  52 /  20  50  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 190053
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
653 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...

SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO LOW TEMPS WERE MADE TONIGHT. SEE DISCUSSION
BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A LOW CLOUD BLANKET WILL PERSIST THRU THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS HAVE HELD STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR
FROM THE NORTH WILL BE ENOUGH TO REALLY LOWER DEWPOINTS...THUS
CURRENT DEWPOINTS MAY BE THE BOTTOM LIMIT ON TEMPS TONIGHT IN MOST
AREAS. USING INPUT FROM THE LATEST HRRR...OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE
TWEAKED UPWARD JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE...WITH THE LARGEST CHANGE
OVER IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THE LATEST DATA ALSO INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE RAIN FROM THE
APPROACHING WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL FALL
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IN THE 00Z
DATA...POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED FOR FRIDAY MORNING.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE
LIFR TO IFR CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.
AREAS OF IFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS LOOK TO
IMPROVE SOME FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS POSSIBLY LIFTING BACK
TO MVFR WITH VFR VISIBILITIES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOCKED IN ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY SLIDING THROUGH THE
MOUNTAIN WEST REGION WILL APPROACH THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES
FRIDAY. HIGHEST QPF SIGNALS REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ONGOING THEME OF KEEPING HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS SE OK AND NW AR THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. A LITTLE FASTER
OF THE SYSTEM PER LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A QUICKER END TO
PRECIP ON FRIDAY EVENING...SO IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A MENTION OF
MIXED PRECIP WILL BE REQUIRED ACROSS FAR NE OK/NW AR AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS. NEXT QUICK MOVING TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY..AND WILL
OFFER AT BEST LIMITED CHANCES FOR RAIN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.
A STRONGER TROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POISED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES SOME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
TIME...DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE XMAS HOLIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   38  44  34  50 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   40  46  36  49 /  20  30  20  10
MLC   39  46  37  51 /  20  30  10  10
BVO   35  42  32  49 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   38  43  34  46 /  10  20  20  10
BYV   37  41  34  45 /  10  20  20  10
MKO   39  44  35  50 /  10  20  10  10
MIO   37  42  32  48 /  10  10  10   0
F10   39  44  36  51 /  20  20  10  10
HHW   43  48  39  52 /  20  50  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30






000
FXUS64 KOUN 182344
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
544 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS.

OVERALL...DID NOT GO AS PESSIMISTIC WITH THIS SET OF TAFS.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH.
LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR KWWR AND KGAG MAY LINGER FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OF THE REST OF THE
AREA...MAINLY 06-17Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION AS CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

ISO-SCT -SHRA MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 11Z. ADDED TEMPO
MENTION AT KSPS 13-15Z WHERE CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTH FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE LIQUID AS THERE LIKELY WILL NOT BE MUCH
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION AREA SOUTH AND THE COOLER LOW-
LEVEL AIR IN THE NORTH. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE
HUMID SO WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AGAIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND PERSISTS NEARBY ON
MONDAY... BUT THERE WILL NOT HAVE BEEN MUCH TIME FOR MOISTURE
RETURN SO POPS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK... THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN AS WE
APPROACH THE HOLIDAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  37  45  34  50 /  20  20  10   0
HOBART OK         37  45  32  50 /  20  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  48  37  52 /  20  30  10   0
GAGE OK           31  45  29  52 /  10  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     32  42  31  49 /  10  10  10   0
DURANT OK         41  48  38  51 /  30  40  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 182344
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
544 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS.

OVERALL...DID NOT GO AS PESSIMISTIC WITH THIS SET OF TAFS.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH.
LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR KWWR AND KGAG MAY LINGER FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OF THE REST OF THE
AREA...MAINLY 06-17Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION AS CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

ISO-SCT -SHRA MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 11Z. ADDED TEMPO
MENTION AT KSPS 13-15Z WHERE CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTH FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE LIQUID AS THERE LIKELY WILL NOT BE MUCH
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION AREA SOUTH AND THE COOLER LOW-
LEVEL AIR IN THE NORTH. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE
HUMID SO WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AGAIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND PERSISTS NEARBY ON
MONDAY... BUT THERE WILL NOT HAVE BEEN MUCH TIME FOR MOISTURE
RETURN SO POPS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK... THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN AS WE
APPROACH THE HOLIDAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  37  45  34  50 /  20  20  10   0
HOBART OK         37  45  32  50 /  20  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  48  37  52 /  20  30  10   0
GAGE OK           31  45  29  52 /  10  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     32  42  31  49 /  10  10  10   0
DURANT OK         41  48  38  51 /  30  40  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 182344
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
544 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS.

OVERALL...DID NOT GO AS PESSIMISTIC WITH THIS SET OF TAFS.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH.
LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR KWWR AND KGAG MAY LINGER FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OF THE REST OF THE
AREA...MAINLY 06-17Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION AS CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

ISO-SCT -SHRA MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 11Z. ADDED TEMPO
MENTION AT KSPS 13-15Z WHERE CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTH FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE LIQUID AS THERE LIKELY WILL NOT BE MUCH
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION AREA SOUTH AND THE COOLER LOW-
LEVEL AIR IN THE NORTH. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE
HUMID SO WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AGAIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND PERSISTS NEARBY ON
MONDAY... BUT THERE WILL NOT HAVE BEEN MUCH TIME FOR MOISTURE
RETURN SO POPS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK... THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN AS WE
APPROACH THE HOLIDAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  37  45  34  50 /  20  20  10   0
HOBART OK         37  45  32  50 /  20  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  48  37  52 /  20  30  10   0
GAGE OK           31  45  29  52 /  10  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     32  42  31  49 /  10  10  10   0
DURANT OK         41  48  38  51 /  30  40  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 182344
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
544 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS.

OVERALL...DID NOT GO AS PESSIMISTIC WITH THIS SET OF TAFS.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH.
LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR KWWR AND KGAG MAY LINGER FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OF THE REST OF THE
AREA...MAINLY 06-17Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION AS CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

ISO-SCT -SHRA MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 11Z. ADDED TEMPO
MENTION AT KSPS 13-15Z WHERE CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTH FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE LIQUID AS THERE LIKELY WILL NOT BE MUCH
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION AREA SOUTH AND THE COOLER LOW-
LEVEL AIR IN THE NORTH. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE
HUMID SO WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AGAIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND PERSISTS NEARBY ON
MONDAY... BUT THERE WILL NOT HAVE BEEN MUCH TIME FOR MOISTURE
RETURN SO POPS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK... THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN AS WE
APPROACH THE HOLIDAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  37  45  34  50 /  20  20  10   0
HOBART OK         37  45  32  50 /  20  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  48  37  52 /  20  30  10   0
GAGE OK           31  45  29  52 /  10  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     32  42  31  49 /  10  10  10   0
DURANT OK         41  48  38  51 /  30  40  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17



000
FXUS64 KTSA 182333
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
533 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE
LIFR TO IFR CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.
AREAS OF IFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS LOOK TO
IMPROVE SOME FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS POSSIBLY LIFTING BACK
TO MVFR WITH VFR VISIBILITIES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOCKED IN ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY SLIDING THROUGH THE
MOUNTAIN WEST REGION WILL APPROACH THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES
FRIDAY. HIGHEST QPF SIGNALS REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ONGOING THEME OF KEEPING HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS SE OK AND NW AR THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. A LITTLE FASTER
OF THE SYSTEM PER LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A QUICKER END TO
PRECIP ON FRIDAY EVENING...SO IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A MENTION OF
MIXED PRECIP WILL BE REQUIRED ACROSS FAR NE OK/NW AR AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS. NEXT QUICK MOVING TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY..AND WILL
OFFER AT BEST LIMITED CHANCES FOR RAIN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.
A STRONGER TROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POISED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES SOME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
TIME...DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE XMAS HOLIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   37  44  34  50 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   40  46  36  49 /  20  30  20  10
MLC   39  46  37  51 /  20  30  10  10
BVO   33  42  32  49 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   35  43  34  46 /  10  20  20  10
BYV   34  41  34  45 /  10  20  20  10
MKO   37  44  35  50 /  10  20  10  10
MIO   34  42  32  48 /  10  10  10   0
F10   39  44  36  51 /  20  20  10  10
HHW   41  48  39  52 /  20  50  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20





000
FXUS64 KOUN 182129
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
329 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTH FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE LIQUID AS THERE LIKELY WILL NOT BE MUCH
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION AREA SOUTH AND THE COOLER LOW-
LEVEL AIR IN THE NORTH. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE
HUMID SO WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AGAIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND PERSISTS NEARBY ON
MONDAY... BUT THERE WILL NOT HAVE BEEN MUCH TIME FOR MOISTURE
RETURN SO POPS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK... THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN AS WE
APPROACH THE HOLIDAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  37  45  34  50 /  20  20  10   0
HOBART OK         37  45  32  50 /  20  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  48  37  52 /  20  30  10   0
GAGE OK           31  45  29  52 /  10  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     32  42  31  49 /  10  10  10   0
DURANT OK         41  48  38  51 /  30  40  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 182129
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
329 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTH FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE LIQUID AS THERE LIKELY WILL NOT BE MUCH
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION AREA SOUTH AND THE COOLER LOW-
LEVEL AIR IN THE NORTH. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE
HUMID SO WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AGAIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND PERSISTS NEARBY ON
MONDAY... BUT THERE WILL NOT HAVE BEEN MUCH TIME FOR MOISTURE
RETURN SO POPS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK... THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN AS WE
APPROACH THE HOLIDAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  37  45  34  50 /  20  20  10   0
HOBART OK         37  45  32  50 /  20  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  48  37  52 /  20  30  10   0
GAGE OK           31  45  29  52 /  10  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     32  42  31  49 /  10  10  10   0
DURANT OK         41  48  38  51 /  30  40  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 182111
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
311 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOCKED IN ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY SLIDING THROUGH THE
MOUNTAIN WEST REGION WILL APPROACH THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES
FRIDAY. HIGHEST QPF SIGNALS REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ONGOING THEME OF KEEPING HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS SE OK AND NW AR THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. A LITTLE FASTER
OF THE SYSTEM PER LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A QUICKER END TO
PRECIP ON FRIDAY EVENING...SO IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A MENTION OF
MIXED PRECIP WILL BE REQUIRED ACROSS FAR NE OK/NW AR AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS. NEXT QUICK MOVING TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY..AND WILL
OFFER AT BEST LIMITED CHANCES FOR RAIN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.
A STRONGER TROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POISED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES SOME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
TIME...DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE XMAS HOLIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   38  44  34  50 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   40  46  36  49 /  20  30  20  10
MLC   41  46  37  51 /  20  30  10  10
BVO   34  42  32  49 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   35  43  34  46 /  10  20  20  10
BYV   34  41  34  45 /  10  20  20  10
MKO   37  44  35  50 /  10  20  10  10
MIO   34  42  32  48 /  10  10  10   0
F10   40  44  36  51 /  20  20  10  10
HHW   42  48  39  52 /  20  50  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....23





000
FXUS64 KOUN 181753 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1153 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH IFR...
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS FOG DEVELOPMENT INCREASES THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE... BUT GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST AT
5 TO 10 MPH.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

UPDATE...
REMOVED POPS FOR TODAY...LEAVING DRIZZLE INSTEAD.

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE MOST PART...FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. LOW OVERCAST
SKIES...DRIZZLE...LIGHT WINDS...AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. REMOVED MENTION OF RAIN AS
FORCING LOOKS TO BE TOO WEAK. HOWEVER...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

MAD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT LIFR WILL APPLY AT MOST
TERMINALS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD DUE TO LOW CIGS. SOME
IMPROVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT WWR/GAG...AND PERHAPS SPS...WHERE
CIGS MAY LIFT TO AROUND 015 BUT THESE WILL DROP AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT EAST TO NE WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW AND IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM. ELSEWHERE...DRIZZLE AND FOG
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE MOST THE
DAY...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

THE NEXT MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATE TONIGHT. RAIN CHCS WILL RETURN MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
BEFORE LUNCHTIME...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.
DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING. SOME
BRIEF SNOW MIXED WITH THE COLD RAIN CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS NW OK...BUT CERTAINLY DO NOT
EXPECT ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS. THE WAVE WILL EXIT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT ENDING PRECIP CHCS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT AM
ALONG THE RED RIVER AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OK WITH VERY
LIGHT WINDS AND ENOUGH BL MOISTURE STILL PRESENT.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND...WITH A SCHC OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS CENTRAL OK WITHIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FETCH AS ANOTHER MID TO UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD. ABOVE AVG
TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED BY MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUES AM....DRYING US OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  43  38  43  35 /  20  20  20   0
HOBART OK         45  37  44  35 /  20  20  20   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  48  42  47  36 /  10  30  30  10
GAGE OK           40  31  45  31 /  10  10  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     39  33  40  31 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         48  42  47  39 /  10  30  50  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/26/04



000
FXUS64 KOUN 181753 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1153 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH IFR...
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS FOG DEVELOPMENT INCREASES THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE... BUT GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST AT
5 TO 10 MPH.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

UPDATE...
REMOVED POPS FOR TODAY...LEAVING DRIZZLE INSTEAD.

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE MOST PART...FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. LOW OVERCAST
SKIES...DRIZZLE...LIGHT WINDS...AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. REMOVED MENTION OF RAIN AS
FORCING LOOKS TO BE TOO WEAK. HOWEVER...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

MAD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT LIFR WILL APPLY AT MOST
TERMINALS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD DUE TO LOW CIGS. SOME
IMPROVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT WWR/GAG...AND PERHAPS SPS...WHERE
CIGS MAY LIFT TO AROUND 015 BUT THESE WILL DROP AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT EAST TO NE WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW AND IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM. ELSEWHERE...DRIZZLE AND FOG
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE MOST THE
DAY...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

THE NEXT MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATE TONIGHT. RAIN CHCS WILL RETURN MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
BEFORE LUNCHTIME...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.
DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING. SOME
BRIEF SNOW MIXED WITH THE COLD RAIN CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS NW OK...BUT CERTAINLY DO NOT
EXPECT ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS. THE WAVE WILL EXIT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT ENDING PRECIP CHCS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT AM
ALONG THE RED RIVER AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OK WITH VERY
LIGHT WINDS AND ENOUGH BL MOISTURE STILL PRESENT.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND...WITH A SCHC OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS CENTRAL OK WITHIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FETCH AS ANOTHER MID TO UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD. ABOVE AVG
TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED BY MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUES AM....DRYING US OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  43  38  43  35 /  20  20  20   0
HOBART OK         45  37  44  35 /  20  20  20   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  48  42  47  36 /  10  30  30  10
GAGE OK           40  31  45  31 /  10  10  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     39  33  40  31 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         48  42  47  39 /  10  30  50  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/26/04




000
FXUS64 KTSA 181742
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1142 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST WITH LOW
CEILING HEIGHTS/FOG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FOG WITH PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE SLOWLY EAST.  DID INCREASE
HIGH TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA GIVEN LATEST
TRENDS BUT OVERALL COLD/CLOUDY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK
WITH NO SHORT TERM CHANGES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 181742
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1142 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST WITH LOW
CEILING HEIGHTS/FOG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FOG WITH PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE SLOWLY EAST.  DID INCREASE
HIGH TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA GIVEN LATEST
TRENDS BUT OVERALL COLD/CLOUDY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK
WITH NO SHORT TERM CHANGES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 181742
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1142 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST WITH LOW
CEILING HEIGHTS/FOG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FOG WITH PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE SLOWLY EAST.  DID INCREASE
HIGH TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA GIVEN LATEST
TRENDS BUT OVERALL COLD/CLOUDY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK
WITH NO SHORT TERM CHANGES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 181742
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1142 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST WITH LOW
CEILING HEIGHTS/FOG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FOG WITH PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE SLOWLY EAST.  DID INCREASE
HIGH TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA GIVEN LATEST
TRENDS BUT OVERALL COLD/CLOUDY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK
WITH NO SHORT TERM CHANGES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 181632
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1032 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FOG WITH PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE SLOWLY EAST.  DID INCREASE
HIGH TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA GIVEN LATEST
TRENDS BUT OVERALL COLD/CLOUDY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK
WITH NO SHORT TERM CHANGES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12






000
FXUS64 KOUN 181623
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1023 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
REMOVED POPS FOR TODAY...LEAVING DRIZZLE INSTEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE MOST PART...FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. LOW OVERCAST
SKIES...DRIZZLE...LIGHT WINDS...AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. REMOVED MENTION OF RAIN AS
FORCING LOOKS TO BE TOO WEAK. HOWEVER...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

MAD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT LIFR WILL APPLY AT MOST
TERMINALS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD DUE TO LOW CIGS. SOME
IMPROVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT WWR/GAG...AND PERHAPS SPS...WHERE
CIGS MAY LIFT TO AROUND 015 BUT THESE WILL DROP AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT EAST TO NE WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW AND IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM. ELSEWHERE...DRIZZLE AND FOG
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE MOST THE
DAY...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

THE NEXT MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATE TONIGHT. RAIN CHCS WILL RETURN MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
BEFORE LUNCHTIME...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.
DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING. SOME
BRIEF SNOW MIXED WITH THE COLD RAIN CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS NW OK...BUT CERTAINLY DO NOT
EXPECT ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS. THE WAVE WILL EXIT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT ENDING PRECIP CHCS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT AM
ALONG THE RED RIVER AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OK WITH VERY
LIGHT WINDS AND ENOUGH BL MOISTURE STILL PRESENT.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND...WITH A SCHC OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS CENTRAL OK WITHIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FETCH AS ANOTHER MID TO UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD. ABOVE AVG
TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED BY MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUES AM....DRYING US OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  43  38  43  35 /  20  20  20   0
HOBART OK         45  37  44  35 /  20  20  20   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  48  42  47  36 /  10  30  30  10
GAGE OK           40  31  45  31 /  10  10  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     39  33  40  31 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         48  42  47  39 /  10  30  50  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/26



000
FXUS64 KOUN 181623
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1023 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
REMOVED POPS FOR TODAY...LEAVING DRIZZLE INSTEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE MOST PART...FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. LOW OVERCAST
SKIES...DRIZZLE...LIGHT WINDS...AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. REMOVED MENTION OF RAIN AS
FORCING LOOKS TO BE TOO WEAK. HOWEVER...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

MAD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT LIFR WILL APPLY AT MOST
TERMINALS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD DUE TO LOW CIGS. SOME
IMPROVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT WWR/GAG...AND PERHAPS SPS...WHERE
CIGS MAY LIFT TO AROUND 015 BUT THESE WILL DROP AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT EAST TO NE WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW AND IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM. ELSEWHERE...DRIZZLE AND FOG
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE MOST THE
DAY...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

THE NEXT MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATE TONIGHT. RAIN CHCS WILL RETURN MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
BEFORE LUNCHTIME...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.
DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING. SOME
BRIEF SNOW MIXED WITH THE COLD RAIN CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS NW OK...BUT CERTAINLY DO NOT
EXPECT ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS. THE WAVE WILL EXIT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT ENDING PRECIP CHCS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT AM
ALONG THE RED RIVER AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OK WITH VERY
LIGHT WINDS AND ENOUGH BL MOISTURE STILL PRESENT.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND...WITH A SCHC OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS CENTRAL OK WITHIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FETCH AS ANOTHER MID TO UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD. ABOVE AVG
TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED BY MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUES AM....DRYING US OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  43  38  43  35 /  20  20  20   0
HOBART OK         45  37  44  35 /  20  20  20   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  48  42  47  36 /  10  30  30  10
GAGE OK           40  31  45  31 /  10  10  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     39  33  40  31 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         48  42  47  39 /  10  30  50  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/26




000
FXUS64 KOUN 181126
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
526 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT LIFR WILL APPLY AT MOST
TERMINALS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD DUE TO LOW CIGS. SOME
IMPROVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT WWR/GAG...AND PERHAPS SPS...WHERE
CIGS MAY LIFT TO AROUND 015 BUT THESE WILL DROP AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT EAST TO NE WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW AND IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM. ELSEWHERE...DRIZZLE AND FOG
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE MOST THE
DAY...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

THE NEXT MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATE TONIGHT. RAIN CHCS WILL RETURN MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
BEFORE LUNCHTIME...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.
DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING. SOME
BRIEF SNOW MIXED WITH THE COLD RAIN CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS NW OK...BUT CERTAINLY DO NOT
EXPECT ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS. THE WAVE WILL EXIT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT ENDING PRECIP CHCS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT AM
ALONG THE RED RIVER AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OK WITH VERY
LIGHT WINDS AND ENOUGH BL MOISTURE STILL PRESENT.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND...WITH A SCHC OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS CENTRAL OK WITHIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FETCH AS ANOTHER MID TO UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD. ABOVE AVG
TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED BY MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUES AM....DRYING US OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  43  38  43  35 /  30  20  20   0
HOBART OK         45  37  44  35 /  20  20  20   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  48  42  47  36 /  10  30  30  10
GAGE OK           40  31  45  31 /  10  10  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     39  33  40  31 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         48  42  47  39 /  10  30  50  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/03/03



000
FXUS64 KOUN 181126
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
526 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT LIFR WILL APPLY AT MOST
TERMINALS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD DUE TO LOW CIGS. SOME
IMPROVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT WWR/GAG...AND PERHAPS SPS...WHERE
CIGS MAY LIFT TO AROUND 015 BUT THESE WILL DROP AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT EAST TO NE WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW AND IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM. ELSEWHERE...DRIZZLE AND FOG
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE MOST THE
DAY...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

THE NEXT MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATE TONIGHT. RAIN CHCS WILL RETURN MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
BEFORE LUNCHTIME...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.
DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING. SOME
BRIEF SNOW MIXED WITH THE COLD RAIN CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS NW OK...BUT CERTAINLY DO NOT
EXPECT ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS. THE WAVE WILL EXIT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT ENDING PRECIP CHCS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT AM
ALONG THE RED RIVER AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OK WITH VERY
LIGHT WINDS AND ENOUGH BL MOISTURE STILL PRESENT.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND...WITH A SCHC OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS CENTRAL OK WITHIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FETCH AS ANOTHER MID TO UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD. ABOVE AVG
TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED BY MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUES AM....DRYING US OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  43  38  43  35 /  30  20  20   0
HOBART OK         45  37  44  35 /  20  20  20   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  48  42  47  36 /  10  30  30  10
GAGE OK           40  31  45  31 /  10  10  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     39  33  40  31 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         48  42  47  39 /  10  30  50  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/03/03




000
FXUS64 KTSA 181052
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
452 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... CEILINGS AT ALL TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT... OR BETTER THAN
MVFR. PATCHY LIGHT RAINFALL OR DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF
SITES AS WELL.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ENERGETIC SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP AT LEAST LOW PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. CURRENTLY A SUBTLE WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX IS PASSING OVERHEAD AIDING LIGHT PRECIP
ALONG THE KS / OK BORDER...WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AND ZONE OF
MODEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS W OK. THIS WEAK
LIFT WILL SLIDE EAST AND MAINTAIN AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT
MEASURABLE PRECIP THROUGH TODAY. SFC TEMPS HAVE GENERALLY
REMAINED STEADY OR WARMED A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT....AND THIS WILL
REMAIN THE TREND BENEATH A PERSIST LOW CLOUD DECK TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP SFC TEMPS AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER
WHERE A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE
HOWEVER NO IMPACT ARE EXPECTED.

THE MORE ROBUST UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING ACROSS FAR NW MEXICO
WILL MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURS NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH
THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP
WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER LIGHT
MEASURABLE AMOUNTS MAY SPREAD INTO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH COOL TEMPS.

TEMPS WARM OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ARRIVING ON MONDAY. MOISTURE LOOKS LESS PLENTIFUL WITH
THIS WAVE AND ONLY LOW PRECIP CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK
REMAINS CONSISTENT W/ UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...HOWEVER THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EVOLUTION IS IN
DISAGREEMENT. THIS WILL IMPACT THE MAGNITUDE OF ANY LATE WEEK COLD
FRONT ALONG W/ THE TIMING OF THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 181052
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
452 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... CEILINGS AT ALL TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT... OR BETTER THAN
MVFR. PATCHY LIGHT RAINFALL OR DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF
SITES AS WELL.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ENERGETIC SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP AT LEAST LOW PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. CURRENTLY A SUBTLE WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX IS PASSING OVERHEAD AIDING LIGHT PRECIP
ALONG THE KS / OK BORDER...WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AND ZONE OF
MODEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS W OK. THIS WEAK
LIFT WILL SLIDE EAST AND MAINTAIN AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT
MEASURABLE PRECIP THROUGH TODAY. SFC TEMPS HAVE GENERALLY
REMAINED STEADY OR WARMED A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT....AND THIS WILL
REMAIN THE TREND BENEATH A PERSIST LOW CLOUD DECK TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP SFC TEMPS AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER
WHERE A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE
HOWEVER NO IMPACT ARE EXPECTED.

THE MORE ROBUST UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING ACROSS FAR NW MEXICO
WILL MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURS NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH
THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP
WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER LIGHT
MEASURABLE AMOUNTS MAY SPREAD INTO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH COOL TEMPS.

TEMPS WARM OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ARRIVING ON MONDAY. MOISTURE LOOKS LESS PLENTIFUL WITH
THIS WAVE AND ONLY LOW PRECIP CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK
REMAINS CONSISTENT W/ UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...HOWEVER THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EVOLUTION IS IN
DISAGREEMENT. THIS WILL IMPACT THE MAGNITUDE OF ANY LATE WEEK COLD
FRONT ALONG W/ THE TIMING OF THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 181052
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
452 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... CEILINGS AT ALL TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT... OR BETTER THAN
MVFR. PATCHY LIGHT RAINFALL OR DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF
SITES AS WELL.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ENERGETIC SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP AT LEAST LOW PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. CURRENTLY A SUBTLE WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX IS PASSING OVERHEAD AIDING LIGHT PRECIP
ALONG THE KS / OK BORDER...WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AND ZONE OF
MODEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS W OK. THIS WEAK
LIFT WILL SLIDE EAST AND MAINTAIN AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT
MEASURABLE PRECIP THROUGH TODAY. SFC TEMPS HAVE GENERALLY
REMAINED STEADY OR WARMED A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT....AND THIS WILL
REMAIN THE TREND BENEATH A PERSIST LOW CLOUD DECK TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP SFC TEMPS AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER
WHERE A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE
HOWEVER NO IMPACT ARE EXPECTED.

THE MORE ROBUST UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING ACROSS FAR NW MEXICO
WILL MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURS NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH
THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP
WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER LIGHT
MEASURABLE AMOUNTS MAY SPREAD INTO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH COOL TEMPS.

TEMPS WARM OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ARRIVING ON MONDAY. MOISTURE LOOKS LESS PLENTIFUL WITH
THIS WAVE AND ONLY LOW PRECIP CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK
REMAINS CONSISTENT W/ UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...HOWEVER THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EVOLUTION IS IN
DISAGREEMENT. THIS WILL IMPACT THE MAGNITUDE OF ANY LATE WEEK COLD
FRONT ALONG W/ THE TIMING OF THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 181052
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
452 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... CEILINGS AT ALL TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT... OR BETTER THAN
MVFR. PATCHY LIGHT RAINFALL OR DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF
SITES AS WELL.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ENERGETIC SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP AT LEAST LOW PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. CURRENTLY A SUBTLE WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX IS PASSING OVERHEAD AIDING LIGHT PRECIP
ALONG THE KS / OK BORDER...WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AND ZONE OF
MODEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS W OK. THIS WEAK
LIFT WILL SLIDE EAST AND MAINTAIN AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT
MEASURABLE PRECIP THROUGH TODAY. SFC TEMPS HAVE GENERALLY
REMAINED STEADY OR WARMED A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT....AND THIS WILL
REMAIN THE TREND BENEATH A PERSIST LOW CLOUD DECK TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP SFC TEMPS AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER
WHERE A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE
HOWEVER NO IMPACT ARE EXPECTED.

THE MORE ROBUST UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING ACROSS FAR NW MEXICO
WILL MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURS NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH
THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP
WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER LIGHT
MEASURABLE AMOUNTS MAY SPREAD INTO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH COOL TEMPS.

TEMPS WARM OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ARRIVING ON MONDAY. MOISTURE LOOKS LESS PLENTIFUL WITH
THIS WAVE AND ONLY LOW PRECIP CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK
REMAINS CONSISTENT W/ UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...HOWEVER THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EVOLUTION IS IN
DISAGREEMENT. THIS WILL IMPACT THE MAGNITUDE OF ANY LATE WEEK COLD
FRONT ALONG W/ THE TIMING OF THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 181052
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
452 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... CEILINGS AT ALL TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT... OR BETTER THAN
MVFR. PATCHY LIGHT RAINFALL OR DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF
SITES AS WELL.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ENERGETIC SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP AT LEAST LOW PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. CURRENTLY A SUBTLE WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX IS PASSING OVERHEAD AIDING LIGHT PRECIP
ALONG THE KS / OK BORDER...WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AND ZONE OF
MODEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS W OK. THIS WEAK
LIFT WILL SLIDE EAST AND MAINTAIN AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT
MEASURABLE PRECIP THROUGH TODAY. SFC TEMPS HAVE GENERALLY
REMAINED STEADY OR WARMED A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT....AND THIS WILL
REMAIN THE TREND BENEATH A PERSIST LOW CLOUD DECK TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP SFC TEMPS AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER
WHERE A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE
HOWEVER NO IMPACT ARE EXPECTED.

THE MORE ROBUST UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING ACROSS FAR NW MEXICO
WILL MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURS NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH
THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP
WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER LIGHT
MEASURABLE AMOUNTS MAY SPREAD INTO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH COOL TEMPS.

TEMPS WARM OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ARRIVING ON MONDAY. MOISTURE LOOKS LESS PLENTIFUL WITH
THIS WAVE AND ONLY LOW PRECIP CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK
REMAINS CONSISTENT W/ UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...HOWEVER THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EVOLUTION IS IN
DISAGREEMENT. THIS WILL IMPACT THE MAGNITUDE OF ANY LATE WEEK COLD
FRONT ALONG W/ THE TIMING OF THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 181052
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
452 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... CEILINGS AT ALL TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT... OR BETTER THAN
MVFR. PATCHY LIGHT RAINFALL OR DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF
SITES AS WELL.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ENERGETIC SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP AT LEAST LOW PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. CURRENTLY A SUBTLE WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX IS PASSING OVERHEAD AIDING LIGHT PRECIP
ALONG THE KS / OK BORDER...WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AND ZONE OF
MODEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS W OK. THIS WEAK
LIFT WILL SLIDE EAST AND MAINTAIN AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT
MEASURABLE PRECIP THROUGH TODAY. SFC TEMPS HAVE GENERALLY
REMAINED STEADY OR WARMED A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT....AND THIS WILL
REMAIN THE TREND BENEATH A PERSIST LOW CLOUD DECK TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP SFC TEMPS AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER
WHERE A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE
HOWEVER NO IMPACT ARE EXPECTED.

THE MORE ROBUST UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING ACROSS FAR NW MEXICO
WILL MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURS NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH
THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP
WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER LIGHT
MEASURABLE AMOUNTS MAY SPREAD INTO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH COOL TEMPS.

TEMPS WARM OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ARRIVING ON MONDAY. MOISTURE LOOKS LESS PLENTIFUL WITH
THIS WAVE AND ONLY LOW PRECIP CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK
REMAINS CONSISTENT W/ UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...HOWEVER THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EVOLUTION IS IN
DISAGREEMENT. THIS WILL IMPACT THE MAGNITUDE OF ANY LATE WEEK COLD
FRONT ALONG W/ THE TIMING OF THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KOUN 181041
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
441 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW AND IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM. ELSEWHERE...DRIZZLE AND FOG
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE MOST THE
DAY...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

THE NEXT MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATE TONIGHT. RAIN CHCS WILL RETURN MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
BEFORE LUNCHTIME...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.
DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING. SOME
BRIEF SNOW MIXED WITH THE COLD RAIN CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS NW OK...BUT CERTAINLY DO NOT
EXPECT ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS. THE WAVE WILL EXIT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT ENDING PRECIP CHCS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT AM
ALONG THE RED RIVER AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OK WITH VERY
LIGHT WINDS AND ENOUGH BL MOISTURE STILL PRESENT.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND...WITH A SCHC OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS CENTRAL OK WITHIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FETCH AS ANOTHER MID TO UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD. ABOVE AVG
TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED BY MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUES AM....DRYING US OUT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  43  38  43  35 /  30  20  20   0
HOBART OK         45  37  44  35 /  20  20  20   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  48  42  47  36 /  10  30  30  10
GAGE OK           40  31  45  31 /  10  10  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     39  33  40  31 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         48  42  47  39 /  10  30  50  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/03



000
FXUS64 KOUN 181041
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
441 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW AND IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM. ELSEWHERE...DRIZZLE AND FOG
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE MOST THE
DAY...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

THE NEXT MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATE TONIGHT. RAIN CHCS WILL RETURN MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
BEFORE LUNCHTIME...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.
DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING. SOME
BRIEF SNOW MIXED WITH THE COLD RAIN CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS NW OK...BUT CERTAINLY DO NOT
EXPECT ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS. THE WAVE WILL EXIT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT ENDING PRECIP CHCS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT AM
ALONG THE RED RIVER AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OK WITH VERY
LIGHT WINDS AND ENOUGH BL MOISTURE STILL PRESENT.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND...WITH A SCHC OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS CENTRAL OK WITHIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FETCH AS ANOTHER MID TO UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD. ABOVE AVG
TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED BY MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUES AM....DRYING US OUT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  43  38  43  35 /  30  20  20   0
HOBART OK         45  37  44  35 /  20  20  20   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  48  42  47  36 /  10  30  30  10
GAGE OK           40  31  45  31 /  10  10  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     39  33  40  31 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         48  42  47  39 /  10  30  50  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/03




000
FXUS64 KTSA 180958
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
358 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ENERGETIC SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP AT LEAST LOW PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. CURRENTLY A SUBTLE WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX IS PASSING OVERHEAD AIDING LIGHT PRECIP
ALONG THE KS / OK BORDER...WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AND ZONE OF
MODEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS W OK. THIS WEAK
LIFT WILL SLIDE EAST AND MAINTAIN AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT
MEASURABLE PRECIP THROUGH TODAY. SFC TEMPS HAVE GENERALLY
REMAINED STEADY OR WARMED A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT....AND THIS WILL
REMAIN THE TREND BENEATH A PERSIST LOW CLOUD DECK TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP SFC TEMPS AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER
WHERE A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE
HOWEVER NO IMPACT ARE EXPECTED.

THE MORE ROBUST UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING ACROSS FAR NW MEXICO
WILL MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURS NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH
THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP
WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER LIGHT
MEASURABLE AMOUNTS MAY SPREAD INTO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH COOL TEMPS.

TEMPS WARM OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ARRIVING ON MONDAY. MOISTURE LOOKS LESS PLENTIFUL WITH
THIS WAVE AND ONLY LOW PRECIP CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK
REMAINS CONSISTENT W/ UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...HOWEVER THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EVOLUTION IS IN
DISAGREEMENT. THIS WILL IMPACT THE MAGNITUDE OF ANY LATE WEEK COLD
FRONT ALONG W/ THE TIMING OF THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   41  35  44  33 /  20  10  10  10
FSM   45  40  46  37 /  10  20  30  20
MLC   44  38  46  35 /  20  20  30  10
BVO   38  33  43  30 /  20  10  10  10
FYV   43  36  43  32 /  10  10  20  20
BYV   39  33  41  32 /  10  10  20  20
MKO   44  37  45  34 /  20  20  20  10
MIO   39  33  43  33 /  20  10  10  10
F10   43  37  45  34 /  20  20  20  10
HHW   46  42  48  38 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07





000
FXUS64 KTSA 180958
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
358 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ENERGETIC SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP AT LEAST LOW PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. CURRENTLY A SUBTLE WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX IS PASSING OVERHEAD AIDING LIGHT PRECIP
ALONG THE KS / OK BORDER...WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AND ZONE OF
MODEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS W OK. THIS WEAK
LIFT WILL SLIDE EAST AND MAINTAIN AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT
MEASURABLE PRECIP THROUGH TODAY. SFC TEMPS HAVE GENERALLY
REMAINED STEADY OR WARMED A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT....AND THIS WILL
REMAIN THE TREND BENEATH A PERSIST LOW CLOUD DECK TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP SFC TEMPS AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER
WHERE A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE
HOWEVER NO IMPACT ARE EXPECTED.

THE MORE ROBUST UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING ACROSS FAR NW MEXICO
WILL MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURS NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH
THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP
WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER LIGHT
MEASURABLE AMOUNTS MAY SPREAD INTO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH COOL TEMPS.

TEMPS WARM OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ARRIVING ON MONDAY. MOISTURE LOOKS LESS PLENTIFUL WITH
THIS WAVE AND ONLY LOW PRECIP CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK
REMAINS CONSISTENT W/ UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...HOWEVER THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EVOLUTION IS IN
DISAGREEMENT. THIS WILL IMPACT THE MAGNITUDE OF ANY LATE WEEK COLD
FRONT ALONG W/ THE TIMING OF THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   41  35  44  33 /  20  10  10  10
FSM   45  40  46  37 /  10  20  30  20
MLC   44  38  46  35 /  20  20  30  10
BVO   38  33  43  30 /  20  10  10  10
FYV   43  36  43  32 /  10  10  20  20
BYV   39  33  41  32 /  10  10  20  20
MKO   44  37  45  34 /  20  20  20  10
MIO   39  33  43  33 /  20  10  10  10
F10   43  37  45  34 /  20  20  20  10
HHW   46  42  48  38 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 180542
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1142 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A WINTRY MIX WITHIN THE LIGHT
DRIZZLE COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. WILL CARRY A MENTION FOR BVO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...CEILINGS LIFTING TO MVFR LOOK POSSIBLE BEFORE FALLING
BACK TO IFR TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 857 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TRENDS FROM EARLIER FORECAST UPDATE STILL LOOKING REASONABLE AS
WIDESPREAD AREA OF PRECIP CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AS
MID/HIGH LEVEL DRY INTRUSION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. ADJUSTED
PRECIP TYPE FORECASTS EARLIER AND CONTINUED SOME MENTION OF MIXED
PRECIP INTO THURSDAY MORNING FAR NRN OK AND NWRN AR. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WERE ADDED FOR FAR NRN OK AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN
NWRN AR. WRAP AROUND PRECIP AREA EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP INTO SRN KS
AND OSAGE...WASHINGTON...AND NOWATA COUNTIES WHERE ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING.
DRIZZLE...AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WHERE TEMPS ARE
SUPPORTIVE...SHOULD DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. FORECAST PRODUCTS
ALREADY SENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   34  44  37  44 /  50  20  20  20
FSM   35  48  43  44 /  70  20  20  30
MLC   37  48  41  46 /  50  20  20  30
BVO   32  41  35  42 /  60  30  20  20
FYV   32  44  38  43 /  60  30  20  20
BYV   32  41  36  40 /  70  30  20  20
MKO   35  44  39  45 /  50  20  20  20
MIO   32  40  35  41 /  60  30  20  20
F10   36  45  39  45 /  50  20  20  20
HHW   36  50  44  48 /  60  20  30  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20





000
FXUS64 KTSA 180542
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1142 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A WINTRY MIX WITHIN THE LIGHT
DRIZZLE COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. WILL CARRY A MENTION FOR BVO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...CEILINGS LIFTING TO MVFR LOOK POSSIBLE BEFORE FALLING
BACK TO IFR TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 857 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TRENDS FROM EARLIER FORECAST UPDATE STILL LOOKING REASONABLE AS
WIDESPREAD AREA OF PRECIP CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AS
MID/HIGH LEVEL DRY INTRUSION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. ADJUSTED
PRECIP TYPE FORECASTS EARLIER AND CONTINUED SOME MENTION OF MIXED
PRECIP INTO THURSDAY MORNING FAR NRN OK AND NWRN AR. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WERE ADDED FOR FAR NRN OK AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN
NWRN AR. WRAP AROUND PRECIP AREA EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP INTO SRN KS
AND OSAGE...WASHINGTON...AND NOWATA COUNTIES WHERE ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING.
DRIZZLE...AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WHERE TEMPS ARE
SUPPORTIVE...SHOULD DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. FORECAST PRODUCTS
ALREADY SENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   34  44  37  44 /  50  20  20  20
FSM   35  48  43  44 /  70  20  20  30
MLC   37  48  41  46 /  50  20  20  30
BVO   32  41  35  42 /  60  30  20  20
FYV   32  44  38  43 /  60  30  20  20
BYV   32  41  36  40 /  70  30  20  20
MKO   35  44  39  45 /  50  20  20  20
MIO   32  40  35  41 /  60  30  20  20
F10   36  45  39  45 /  50  20  20  20
HHW   36  50  44  48 /  60  20  30  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20






000
FXUS64 KOUN 180536
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1136 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL...THINK IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

AIRPORT MINIMUMS MAY BE MET IN A FEW LOCATIONS PARTICULARLY OVER
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 18Z. MENTIONED
THESE CONDITIONS NEAR KHBR...KCSM...AND KWWR WHERE CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE IS MODERATE.

SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR MAY OCCUR AT ANY SITE AFTER 18Z...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION.

-DZ WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES NORTH OF KHBR-KDUA. -RAPL MAY OCCUR
NEAR KGAG...KWWR...AND KPNC BEFORE 18Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

UPDATE...
THE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF MUCH OF THE FA EARLY THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONAL PRECIP IN THE PANHANDLES WILL MOVE INTO AND AFFECT
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA THIS EVENING WITH WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE IN
FAR NORTHERN OK. THE WINTER PRECIP IS STILL NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A
MAJOR IMPACT. OTHERWISE... DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE MAIN
FACTORS THIS EVENING. PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONT TO LOWER OVERNIGHT.
ADJUSTED POPS TO SHOW THE QUICKER ENDING OF PRECIP IN SOME AREAS
AND ADDED DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG WORDING TO WX GRIDS. UPDATES OUT
SOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION...
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SITES COULD APPROACH 100 FT CEILINGS AND 1/2 SM
VISIBILITIES TOWARD EARLY MORNING...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION THESE VLIFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...SHIFTING FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL KEEP SOME DEGREE OF
POSITIVE TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS
WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID
RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT... ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
HAVE TEMPS CLOSER TO 0 DEGREES C IN LOW LEVELS NORTH. WITH THE
TEMPERATURES THIS CLOSE TO ZERO... MAY SEE A LITTLE MIX OF SLEET
OR LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH OVERNIGHT... BUT EXPECT RAIN TO BE
THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE. WE MAY ALSO STILL SEE SOME SLEET
FARTHER SOUTH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE MORE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN THE
PRECIP AREA... BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING SO WILL NOT MENTION
SLEET IN THE ZONES EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTH.

THE NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS FRIDAY. A SURFACE BOUNDARY
DEVELOPING NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FOCUSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. BUT WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION AS WELL.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 180536
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1136 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL...THINK IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

AIRPORT MINIMUMS MAY BE MET IN A FEW LOCATIONS PARTICULARLY OVER
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 18Z. MENTIONED
THESE CONDITIONS NEAR KHBR...KCSM...AND KWWR WHERE CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE IS MODERATE.

SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR MAY OCCUR AT ANY SITE AFTER 18Z...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION.

-DZ WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES NORTH OF KHBR-KDUA. -RAPL MAY OCCUR
NEAR KGAG...KWWR...AND KPNC BEFORE 18Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

UPDATE...
THE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF MUCH OF THE FA EARLY THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONAL PRECIP IN THE PANHANDLES WILL MOVE INTO AND AFFECT
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA THIS EVENING WITH WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE IN
FAR NORTHERN OK. THE WINTER PRECIP IS STILL NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A
MAJOR IMPACT. OTHERWISE... DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE MAIN
FACTORS THIS EVENING. PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONT TO LOWER OVERNIGHT.
ADJUSTED POPS TO SHOW THE QUICKER ENDING OF PRECIP IN SOME AREAS
AND ADDED DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG WORDING TO WX GRIDS. UPDATES OUT
SOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION...
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SITES COULD APPROACH 100 FT CEILINGS AND 1/2 SM
VISIBILITIES TOWARD EARLY MORNING...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION THESE VLIFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...SHIFTING FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL KEEP SOME DEGREE OF
POSITIVE TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS
WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID
RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT... ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
HAVE TEMPS CLOSER TO 0 DEGREES C IN LOW LEVELS NORTH. WITH THE
TEMPERATURES THIS CLOSE TO ZERO... MAY SEE A LITTLE MIX OF SLEET
OR LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH OVERNIGHT... BUT EXPECT RAIN TO BE
THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE. WE MAY ALSO STILL SEE SOME SLEET
FARTHER SOUTH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE MORE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN THE
PRECIP AREA... BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING SO WILL NOT MENTION
SLEET IN THE ZONES EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTH.

THE NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS FRIDAY. A SURFACE BOUNDARY
DEVELOPING NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FOCUSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. BUT WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION AS WELL.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 180536
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1136 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL...THINK IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

AIRPORT MINIMUMS MAY BE MET IN A FEW LOCATIONS PARTICULARLY OVER
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 18Z. MENTIONED
THESE CONDITIONS NEAR KHBR...KCSM...AND KWWR WHERE CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE IS MODERATE.

SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR MAY OCCUR AT ANY SITE AFTER 18Z...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION.

-DZ WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES NORTH OF KHBR-KDUA. -RAPL MAY OCCUR
NEAR KGAG...KWWR...AND KPNC BEFORE 18Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

UPDATE...
THE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF MUCH OF THE FA EARLY THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONAL PRECIP IN THE PANHANDLES WILL MOVE INTO AND AFFECT
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA THIS EVENING WITH WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE IN
FAR NORTHERN OK. THE WINTER PRECIP IS STILL NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A
MAJOR IMPACT. OTHERWISE... DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE MAIN
FACTORS THIS EVENING. PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONT TO LOWER OVERNIGHT.
ADJUSTED POPS TO SHOW THE QUICKER ENDING OF PRECIP IN SOME AREAS
AND ADDED DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG WORDING TO WX GRIDS. UPDATES OUT
SOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION...
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SITES COULD APPROACH 100 FT CEILINGS AND 1/2 SM
VISIBILITIES TOWARD EARLY MORNING...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION THESE VLIFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...SHIFTING FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL KEEP SOME DEGREE OF
POSITIVE TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS
WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID
RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT... ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
HAVE TEMPS CLOSER TO 0 DEGREES C IN LOW LEVELS NORTH. WITH THE
TEMPERATURES THIS CLOSE TO ZERO... MAY SEE A LITTLE MIX OF SLEET
OR LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH OVERNIGHT... BUT EXPECT RAIN TO BE
THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE. WE MAY ALSO STILL SEE SOME SLEET
FARTHER SOUTH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE MORE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN THE
PRECIP AREA... BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING SO WILL NOT MENTION
SLEET IN THE ZONES EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTH.

THE NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS FRIDAY. A SURFACE BOUNDARY
DEVELOPING NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FOCUSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. BUT WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION AS WELL.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 180536
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1136 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL...THINK IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

AIRPORT MINIMUMS MAY BE MET IN A FEW LOCATIONS PARTICULARLY OVER
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 18Z. MENTIONED
THESE CONDITIONS NEAR KHBR...KCSM...AND KWWR WHERE CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE IS MODERATE.

SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR MAY OCCUR AT ANY SITE AFTER 18Z...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION.

-DZ WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES NORTH OF KHBR-KDUA. -RAPL MAY OCCUR
NEAR KGAG...KWWR...AND KPNC BEFORE 18Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

UPDATE...
THE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF MUCH OF THE FA EARLY THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONAL PRECIP IN THE PANHANDLES WILL MOVE INTO AND AFFECT
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA THIS EVENING WITH WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE IN
FAR NORTHERN OK. THE WINTER PRECIP IS STILL NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A
MAJOR IMPACT. OTHERWISE... DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE MAIN
FACTORS THIS EVENING. PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONT TO LOWER OVERNIGHT.
ADJUSTED POPS TO SHOW THE QUICKER ENDING OF PRECIP IN SOME AREAS
AND ADDED DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG WORDING TO WX GRIDS. UPDATES OUT
SOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION...
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SITES COULD APPROACH 100 FT CEILINGS AND 1/2 SM
VISIBILITIES TOWARD EARLY MORNING...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION THESE VLIFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...SHIFTING FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL KEEP SOME DEGREE OF
POSITIVE TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS
WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID
RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT... ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
HAVE TEMPS CLOSER TO 0 DEGREES C IN LOW LEVELS NORTH. WITH THE
TEMPERATURES THIS CLOSE TO ZERO... MAY SEE A LITTLE MIX OF SLEET
OR LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH OVERNIGHT... BUT EXPECT RAIN TO BE
THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE. WE MAY ALSO STILL SEE SOME SLEET
FARTHER SOUTH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE MORE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN THE
PRECIP AREA... BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING SO WILL NOT MENTION
SLEET IN THE ZONES EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTH.

THE NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS FRIDAY. A SURFACE BOUNDARY
DEVELOPING NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FOCUSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. BUT WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION AS WELL.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/17/17




000
FXUS64 KTSA 180257
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
857 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TRENDS FROM EARLIER FORECAST UPDATE STILL LOOKING REASONABLE AS
WIDESPREAD AREA OF PRECIP CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AS
MID/HIGH LEVEL DRY INTRUSION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. ADJUSTED
PRECIP TYPE FORECASTS EARLIER AND CONTINUED SOME MENTION OF MIXED
PRECIP INTO THURSDAY MORNING FAR NRN OK AND NWRN AR. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WERE ADDED FOR FAR NRN OK AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN
NWRN AR. WRAP AROUND PRECIP AREA EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP INTO SRN KS
AND OSAGE...WASHINGTON...AND NOWATA COUNTIES WHERE ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING.
DRIZZLE...AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WHERE TEMPS ARE
SUPPORTIVE...SHOULD DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. FORECAST PRODUCTS
ALREADY SENT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69





000
FXUS64 KOUN 180121 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
721 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF MUCH OF THE FA EARLY THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONAL PRECIP IN THE PANHANDLES WILL MOVE INTO AND AFFECT
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA THIS EVENING WITH WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE IN
FAR NORTHERN OK. THE WINTER PRECIP IS STILL NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A
MAJOR IMPACT. OTHERWISE... DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE MAIN
FACTORS THIS EVENING. PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONT TO LOWER OVERNIGHT.
ADJUSTED POPS TO SHOW THE QUICKER ENDING OF PRECIP IN SOME AREAS
AND ADDED DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG WORDING TO WX GRIDS. UPDATES OUT
SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION...
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SITES COULD APPROACH 100 FT CEILINGS AND 1/2 SM
VISIBILITIES TOWARD EARLY MORNING...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION THESE VLIFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...SHIFTING FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL KEEP SOME DEGREE OF
POSITIVE TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS
WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID
RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT... ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
HAVE TEMPS CLOSER TO 0 DEGREES C IN LOW LEVELS NORTH. WITH THE
TEMPERATURES THIS CLOSE TO ZERO... MAY SEE A LITTLE MIX OF SLEET
OR LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH OVERNIGHT... BUT EXPECT RAIN TO BE
THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE. WE MAY ALSO STILL SEE SOME SLEET
FARTHER SOUTH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE MORE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN THE
PRECIP AREA... BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING SO WILL NOT MENTION
SLEET IN THE ZONES EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTH.

THE NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS FRIDAY. A SURFACE BOUNDARY
DEVELOPING NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FOCUSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. BUT WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  37  47  37  44 /  20  20  20  20
HOBART OK         37  47  36  45 /  10  10  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  40  53  40  49 /  10  10  30  40
GAGE OK           33  42  31  45 /  40  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     33  41  34  42 /  60  30  20  20
DURANT OK         39  51  42  49 /  60  20  30  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 180121 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
721 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF MUCH OF THE FA EARLY THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONAL PRECIP IN THE PANHANDLES WILL MOVE INTO AND AFFECT
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA THIS EVENING WITH WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE IN
FAR NORTHERN OK. THE WINTER PRECIP IS STILL NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A
MAJOR IMPACT. OTHERWISE... DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE MAIN
FACTORS THIS EVENING. PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONT TO LOWER OVERNIGHT.
ADJUSTED POPS TO SHOW THE QUICKER ENDING OF PRECIP IN SOME AREAS
AND ADDED DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG WORDING TO WX GRIDS. UPDATES OUT
SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION...
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SITES COULD APPROACH 100 FT CEILINGS AND 1/2 SM
VISIBILITIES TOWARD EARLY MORNING...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION THESE VLIFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...SHIFTING FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL KEEP SOME DEGREE OF
POSITIVE TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS
WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID
RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT... ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
HAVE TEMPS CLOSER TO 0 DEGREES C IN LOW LEVELS NORTH. WITH THE
TEMPERATURES THIS CLOSE TO ZERO... MAY SEE A LITTLE MIX OF SLEET
OR LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH OVERNIGHT... BUT EXPECT RAIN TO BE
THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE. WE MAY ALSO STILL SEE SOME SLEET
FARTHER SOUTH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE MORE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN THE
PRECIP AREA... BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING SO WILL NOT MENTION
SLEET IN THE ZONES EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTH.

THE NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS FRIDAY. A SURFACE BOUNDARY
DEVELOPING NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FOCUSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. BUT WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  37  47  37  44 /  20  20  20  20
HOBART OK         37  47  36  45 /  10  10  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  40  53  40  49 /  10  10  30  40
GAGE OK           33  42  31  45 /  40  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     33  41  34  42 /  60  30  20  20
DURANT OK         39  51  42  49 /  60  20  30  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 180121 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
721 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF MUCH OF THE FA EARLY THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONAL PRECIP IN THE PANHANDLES WILL MOVE INTO AND AFFECT
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA THIS EVENING WITH WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE IN
FAR NORTHERN OK. THE WINTER PRECIP IS STILL NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A
MAJOR IMPACT. OTHERWISE... DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE MAIN
FACTORS THIS EVENING. PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONT TO LOWER OVERNIGHT.
ADJUSTED POPS TO SHOW THE QUICKER ENDING OF PRECIP IN SOME AREAS
AND ADDED DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG WORDING TO WX GRIDS. UPDATES OUT
SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION...
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SITES COULD APPROACH 100 FT CEILINGS AND 1/2 SM
VISIBILITIES TOWARD EARLY MORNING...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION THESE VLIFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...SHIFTING FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL KEEP SOME DEGREE OF
POSITIVE TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS
WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID
RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT... ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
HAVE TEMPS CLOSER TO 0 DEGREES C IN LOW LEVELS NORTH. WITH THE
TEMPERATURES THIS CLOSE TO ZERO... MAY SEE A LITTLE MIX OF SLEET
OR LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH OVERNIGHT... BUT EXPECT RAIN TO BE
THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE. WE MAY ALSO STILL SEE SOME SLEET
FARTHER SOUTH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE MORE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN THE
PRECIP AREA... BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING SO WILL NOT MENTION
SLEET IN THE ZONES EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTH.

THE NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS FRIDAY. A SURFACE BOUNDARY
DEVELOPING NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FOCUSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. BUT WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  37  47  37  44 /  20  20  20  20
HOBART OK         37  47  36  45 /  10  10  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  40  53  40  49 /  10  10  30  40
GAGE OK           33  42  31  45 /  40  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     33  41  34  42 /  60  30  20  20
DURANT OK         39  51  42  49 /  60  20  30  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 180121 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
721 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF MUCH OF THE FA EARLY THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONAL PRECIP IN THE PANHANDLES WILL MOVE INTO AND AFFECT
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA THIS EVENING WITH WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE IN
FAR NORTHERN OK. THE WINTER PRECIP IS STILL NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A
MAJOR IMPACT. OTHERWISE... DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE MAIN
FACTORS THIS EVENING. PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONT TO LOWER OVERNIGHT.
ADJUSTED POPS TO SHOW THE QUICKER ENDING OF PRECIP IN SOME AREAS
AND ADDED DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG WORDING TO WX GRIDS. UPDATES OUT
SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION...
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SITES COULD APPROACH 100 FT CEILINGS AND 1/2 SM
VISIBILITIES TOWARD EARLY MORNING...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION THESE VLIFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...SHIFTING FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL KEEP SOME DEGREE OF
POSITIVE TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS
WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID
RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT... ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
HAVE TEMPS CLOSER TO 0 DEGREES C IN LOW LEVELS NORTH. WITH THE
TEMPERATURES THIS CLOSE TO ZERO... MAY SEE A LITTLE MIX OF SLEET
OR LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH OVERNIGHT... BUT EXPECT RAIN TO BE
THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE. WE MAY ALSO STILL SEE SOME SLEET
FARTHER SOUTH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE MORE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN THE
PRECIP AREA... BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING SO WILL NOT MENTION
SLEET IN THE ZONES EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTH.

THE NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS FRIDAY. A SURFACE BOUNDARY
DEVELOPING NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FOCUSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. BUT WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  37  47  37  44 /  20  20  20  20
HOBART OK         37  47  36  45 /  10  10  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  40  53  40  49 /  10  10  30  40
GAGE OK           33  42  31  45 /  40  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     33  41  34  42 /  60  30  20  20
DURANT OK         39  51  42  49 /  60  20  30  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 180121 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
721 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF MUCH OF THE FA EARLY THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONAL PRECIP IN THE PANHANDLES WILL MOVE INTO AND AFFECT
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA THIS EVENING WITH WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE IN
FAR NORTHERN OK. THE WINTER PRECIP IS STILL NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A
MAJOR IMPACT. OTHERWISE... DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE MAIN
FACTORS THIS EVENING. PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONT TO LOWER OVERNIGHT.
ADJUSTED POPS TO SHOW THE QUICKER ENDING OF PRECIP IN SOME AREAS
AND ADDED DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG WORDING TO WX GRIDS. UPDATES OUT
SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION...
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SITES COULD APPROACH 100 FT CEILINGS AND 1/2 SM
VISIBILITIES TOWARD EARLY MORNING...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION THESE VLIFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...SHIFTING FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL KEEP SOME DEGREE OF
POSITIVE TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS
WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID
RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT... ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
HAVE TEMPS CLOSER TO 0 DEGREES C IN LOW LEVELS NORTH. WITH THE
TEMPERATURES THIS CLOSE TO ZERO... MAY SEE A LITTLE MIX OF SLEET
OR LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH OVERNIGHT... BUT EXPECT RAIN TO BE
THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE. WE MAY ALSO STILL SEE SOME SLEET
FARTHER SOUTH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE MORE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN THE
PRECIP AREA... BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING SO WILL NOT MENTION
SLEET IN THE ZONES EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTH.

THE NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS FRIDAY. A SURFACE BOUNDARY
DEVELOPING NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FOCUSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. BUT WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  37  47  37  44 /  20  20  20  20
HOBART OK         37  47  36  45 /  10  10  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  40  53  40  49 /  10  10  30  40
GAGE OK           33  42  31  45 /  40  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     33  41  34  42 /  60  30  20  20
DURANT OK         39  51  42  49 /  60  20  30  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 180121 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
721 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF MUCH OF THE FA EARLY THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONAL PRECIP IN THE PANHANDLES WILL MOVE INTO AND AFFECT
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA THIS EVENING WITH WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE IN
FAR NORTHERN OK. THE WINTER PRECIP IS STILL NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A
MAJOR IMPACT. OTHERWISE... DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE MAIN
FACTORS THIS EVENING. PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONT TO LOWER OVERNIGHT.
ADJUSTED POPS TO SHOW THE QUICKER ENDING OF PRECIP IN SOME AREAS
AND ADDED DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG WORDING TO WX GRIDS. UPDATES OUT
SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION...
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SITES COULD APPROACH 100 FT CEILINGS AND 1/2 SM
VISIBILITIES TOWARD EARLY MORNING...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION THESE VLIFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...SHIFTING FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL KEEP SOME DEGREE OF
POSITIVE TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS
WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID
RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT... ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
HAVE TEMPS CLOSER TO 0 DEGREES C IN LOW LEVELS NORTH. WITH THE
TEMPERATURES THIS CLOSE TO ZERO... MAY SEE A LITTLE MIX OF SLEET
OR LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH OVERNIGHT... BUT EXPECT RAIN TO BE
THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE. WE MAY ALSO STILL SEE SOME SLEET
FARTHER SOUTH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE MORE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN THE
PRECIP AREA... BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING SO WILL NOT MENTION
SLEET IN THE ZONES EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTH.

THE NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS FRIDAY. A SURFACE BOUNDARY
DEVELOPING NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FOCUSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. BUT WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  37  47  37  44 /  20  20  20  20
HOBART OK         37  47  36  45 /  10  10  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  40  53  40  49 /  10  10  30  40
GAGE OK           33  42  31  45 /  40  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     33  41  34  42 /  60  30  20  20
DURANT OK         39  51  42  49 /  60  20  30  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17



000
FXUS64 KTSA 172347
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
547 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. BVO TAF SITE WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LIGHT WINTRY MIX WITHIN THE RAIN THIS
EVENING. OVERNIGHT...THE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT EAST
OF THE REGION...WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE REMAINING POSSIBLE INTO THE
MORNING HOURS THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION. VARYING CEILINGS FROM
IFR TO VFR SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND IS
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LIFR TO IFR CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT AND
MUCH OF THURSDAY. A BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND
POSSIBLY LIFTING CONDITIONS BACK TO MVFR.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A CHANGEOVER TO LIQUID PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN OBSERVED AS
LOWER LAYERS HAVE SATURATED AND STRONGER WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
TO DRAW CLOSER. HIGH POPS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER EXPECTED WITHIN
THE STRONGER WAA ZONE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z...BUT WILL TAPER
POPS FROM SW TO NE AS PRECIP BECOMES BETTER FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY
THAT SHARPENS FROM W-E ACROSS SRN KS/MO OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP MENTION
OF MIXED PRECIP ALONG THE BORDER COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
HOVER NEAR FREEZING IN THOSE LOCATIONS. LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR
MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING WAVE AND APPROACHING MAIN UPPER TROUGH. HIGHEST QPF
SIGNALS REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...WITH MODELS SHOWING
CONSISTENCY WITH UPPER TROUGH MOTION ALONG WITH REDEVELOPING
ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTIONS ACROSS TX AND LA. WILL CONTINUE
WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS SE OK AND NW AR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
WILL KEEP MIXED PRECIP MENTION ACROSS FAR NW AR LATE FRIDAY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH COLDER AIR THAT FILTERS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM. WEAK UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW ACROSS JUST THE
WRN ZONES. STRONGER UPPER TROUGH IN NW FLOW WILL PUSH A FRONT INTO
THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WILL OFFER THE NEXT CHANCES
FOR PRECIP ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   34  44  37  44 /  80  20  20  20
FSM   35  48  43  44 /  90  20  20  30
MLC   37  48  41  46 /  80  20  20  30
BVO   32  41  35  42 /  90  30  20  20
FYV   32  44  38  43 /  90  30  20  20
BYV   32  41  36  40 /  90  30  20  20
MKO   35  44  39  45 /  90  20  20  20
MIO   33  40  35  41 /  90  30  20  20
F10   36  45  39  45 /  80  20  20  20
HHW   38  50  44  48 /  90  20  30  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20





000
FXUS64 KOUN 172338
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
538 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SITES COULD APPROACH 100 FT CEILINGS AND 1/2 SM
VISIBILITIES TOWARD EARLY MORNING...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION THESE VLIFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...SHIFTING FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL KEEP SOME DEGREE OF
POSITIVE TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS
WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID
RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT... ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
HAVE TEMPS CLOSER TO 0 DEGREES C IN LOW LEVELS NORTH. WITH THE
TEMPERATURES THIS CLOSE TO ZERO... MAY SEE A LITTLE MIX OF SLEET
OR LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH OVERNIGHT... BUT EXPECT RAIN TO BE
THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE. WE MAY ALSO STILL SEE SOME SLEET
FARTHER SOUTH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE MORE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN THE
PRECIP AREA... BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING SO WILL NOT MENTION
SLEET IN THE ZONES EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTH.

THE NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS FRIDAY. A SURFACE BOUNDARY
DEVELOPING NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FOCUSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. BUT WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  37  47  37  44 /  40  20  20  20
HOBART OK         37  47  36  45 /  30  20  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  40  53  40  49 /  30  10  30  40
GAGE OK           33  42  31  45 /  40  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     33  41  34  42 /  60  30  20  20
DURANT OK         39  51  42  49 /  80  20  30  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/14




000
FXUS64 KOUN 172338
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
538 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SITES COULD APPROACH 100 FT CEILINGS AND 1/2 SM
VISIBILITIES TOWARD EARLY MORNING...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION THESE VLIFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...SHIFTING FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL KEEP SOME DEGREE OF
POSITIVE TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS
WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID
RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT... ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
HAVE TEMPS CLOSER TO 0 DEGREES C IN LOW LEVELS NORTH. WITH THE
TEMPERATURES THIS CLOSE TO ZERO... MAY SEE A LITTLE MIX OF SLEET
OR LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH OVERNIGHT... BUT EXPECT RAIN TO BE
THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE. WE MAY ALSO STILL SEE SOME SLEET
FARTHER SOUTH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE MORE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN THE
PRECIP AREA... BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING SO WILL NOT MENTION
SLEET IN THE ZONES EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTH.

THE NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS FRIDAY. A SURFACE BOUNDARY
DEVELOPING NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FOCUSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. BUT WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  37  47  37  44 /  40  20  20  20
HOBART OK         37  47  36  45 /  30  20  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  40  53  40  49 /  30  10  30  40
GAGE OK           33  42  31  45 /  40  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     33  41  34  42 /  60  30  20  20
DURANT OK         39  51  42  49 /  80  20  30  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/14




000
FXUS64 KOUN 172338
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
538 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SITES COULD APPROACH 100 FT CEILINGS AND 1/2 SM
VISIBILITIES TOWARD EARLY MORNING...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION THESE VLIFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...SHIFTING FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL KEEP SOME DEGREE OF
POSITIVE TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS
WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID
RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT... ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
HAVE TEMPS CLOSER TO 0 DEGREES C IN LOW LEVELS NORTH. WITH THE
TEMPERATURES THIS CLOSE TO ZERO... MAY SEE A LITTLE MIX OF SLEET
OR LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH OVERNIGHT... BUT EXPECT RAIN TO BE
THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE. WE MAY ALSO STILL SEE SOME SLEET
FARTHER SOUTH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE MORE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN THE
PRECIP AREA... BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING SO WILL NOT MENTION
SLEET IN THE ZONES EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTH.

THE NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS FRIDAY. A SURFACE BOUNDARY
DEVELOPING NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FOCUSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. BUT WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  37  47  37  44 /  40  20  20  20
HOBART OK         37  47  36  45 /  30  20  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  40  53  40  49 /  30  10  30  40
GAGE OK           33  42  31  45 /  40  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     33  41  34  42 /  60  30  20  20
DURANT OK         39  51  42  49 /  80  20  30  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/14




000
FXUS64 KOUN 172338
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
538 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SITES COULD APPROACH 100 FT CEILINGS AND 1/2 SM
VISIBILITIES TOWARD EARLY MORNING...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION THESE VLIFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...SHIFTING FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL KEEP SOME DEGREE OF
POSITIVE TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS
WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID
RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT... ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
HAVE TEMPS CLOSER TO 0 DEGREES C IN LOW LEVELS NORTH. WITH THE
TEMPERATURES THIS CLOSE TO ZERO... MAY SEE A LITTLE MIX OF SLEET
OR LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH OVERNIGHT... BUT EXPECT RAIN TO BE
THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE. WE MAY ALSO STILL SEE SOME SLEET
FARTHER SOUTH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE MORE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN THE
PRECIP AREA... BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING SO WILL NOT MENTION
SLEET IN THE ZONES EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTH.

THE NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS FRIDAY. A SURFACE BOUNDARY
DEVELOPING NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FOCUSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. BUT WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  37  47  37  44 /  40  20  20  20
HOBART OK         37  47  36  45 /  30  20  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  40  53  40  49 /  30  10  30  40
GAGE OK           33  42  31  45 /  40  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     33  41  34  42 /  60  30  20  20
DURANT OK         39  51  42  49 /  80  20  30  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/14




000
FXUS64 KOUN 172149
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
349 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL KEEP SOME DEGREE OF
POSITIVE TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS
WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID
RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT... ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
HAVE TEMPS CLOSER TO 0 DEGREES C IN LOW LEVELS NORTH. WITH THE
TEMPERATURES THIS CLOSE TO ZERO... MAY SEE A LITTLE MIX OF SLEET
OR LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH OVERNIGHT... BUT EXPECT RAIN TO BE
THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE. WE MAY ALSO STILL SEE SOME SLEET
FARTHER SOUTH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE MORE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN THE
PRECIP AREA... BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING SO WILL NOT MENTION
SLEET IN THE ZONES EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTH.

THE NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS FRIDAY. A SURFACE BOUNDARY
DEVELOPING NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FOCUSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. BUT WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  37  47  37  44 /  40  20  20  20
HOBART OK         37  47  36  45 /  30  20  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  40  53  40  49 /  30  10  30  40
GAGE OK           33  42  31  45 /  40  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     33  41  34  42 /  60  30  20  20
DURANT OK         39  51  42  49 /  80  20  30  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 172149
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
349 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL KEEP SOME DEGREE OF
POSITIVE TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS
WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID
RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT... ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
HAVE TEMPS CLOSER TO 0 DEGREES C IN LOW LEVELS NORTH. WITH THE
TEMPERATURES THIS CLOSE TO ZERO... MAY SEE A LITTLE MIX OF SLEET
OR LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH OVERNIGHT... BUT EXPECT RAIN TO BE
THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE. WE MAY ALSO STILL SEE SOME SLEET
FARTHER SOUTH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE MORE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN THE
PRECIP AREA... BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING SO WILL NOT MENTION
SLEET IN THE ZONES EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTH.

THE NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS FRIDAY. A SURFACE BOUNDARY
DEVELOPING NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FOCUSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. BUT WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  37  47  37  44 /  40  20  20  20
HOBART OK         37  47  36  45 /  30  20  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  40  53  40  49 /  30  10  30  40
GAGE OK           33  42  31  45 /  40  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     33  41  34  42 /  60  30  20  20
DURANT OK         39  51  42  49 /  80  20  30  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 172149
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
349 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL KEEP SOME DEGREE OF
POSITIVE TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS
WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID
RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT... ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
HAVE TEMPS CLOSER TO 0 DEGREES C IN LOW LEVELS NORTH. WITH THE
TEMPERATURES THIS CLOSE TO ZERO... MAY SEE A LITTLE MIX OF SLEET
OR LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH OVERNIGHT... BUT EXPECT RAIN TO BE
THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE. WE MAY ALSO STILL SEE SOME SLEET
FARTHER SOUTH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE MORE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN THE
PRECIP AREA... BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING SO WILL NOT MENTION
SLEET IN THE ZONES EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTH.

THE NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS FRIDAY. A SURFACE BOUNDARY
DEVELOPING NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FOCUSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. BUT WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  37  47  37  44 /  40  20  20  20
HOBART OK         37  47  36  45 /  30  20  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  40  53  40  49 /  30  10  30  40
GAGE OK           33  42  31  45 /  40  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     33  41  34  42 /  60  30  20  20
DURANT OK         39  51  42  49 /  80  20  30  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 172149
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
349 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL KEEP SOME DEGREE OF
POSITIVE TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS
WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID
RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT... ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
HAVE TEMPS CLOSER TO 0 DEGREES C IN LOW LEVELS NORTH. WITH THE
TEMPERATURES THIS CLOSE TO ZERO... MAY SEE A LITTLE MIX OF SLEET
OR LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH OVERNIGHT... BUT EXPECT RAIN TO BE
THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE. WE MAY ALSO STILL SEE SOME SLEET
FARTHER SOUTH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE MORE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN THE
PRECIP AREA... BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING SO WILL NOT MENTION
SLEET IN THE ZONES EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTH.

THE NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS FRIDAY. A SURFACE BOUNDARY
DEVELOPING NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FOCUSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. BUT WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  37  47  37  44 /  40  20  20  20
HOBART OK         37  47  36  45 /  30  20  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  40  53  40  49 /  30  10  30  40
GAGE OK           33  42  31  45 /  40  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     33  41  34  42 /  60  30  20  20
DURANT OK         39  51  42  49 /  80  20  30  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 172111
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
311 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A CHANGEOVER TO LIQUID PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN OBSERVED AS
LOWER LAYERS HAVE SATURATED AND STRONGER WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
TO DRAW CLOSER. HIGH POPS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER EXPECTED WITHIN
THE STRONGER WAA ZONE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z...BUT WILL TAPER
POPS FROM SW TO NE AS PRECIP BECOMES BETTER FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY
THAT SHARPENS FROM W-E ACROSS SRN KS/MO OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP MENTION
OF MIXED PRECIP ALONG THE BORDER COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
HOVER NEAR FREEZING IN THOSE LOCATIONS. LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR
MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN THE DEPARTING
WAVE AND APPROACHING MAIN UPPER TROUGH. HIGHEST QPF SIGNALS REMAIN
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...WITH MODELS SHOWING CONSISTENCY WITH
UPPER TROUGH MOTION ALONG WITH REDEVELOPING ASSOCIATED SURFACE
REFLECTIONS ACROSS TX AND LA. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS SE OK AND NW AR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP MIXED
PRECIP MENTION ACROSS FAR NW AR LATE FRIDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH
COLDER AIR THAT FILTERS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. WEAK UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW ACROSS JUST THE WRN ZONES.
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH IN NW FLOW WILL PUSH A FRONT INTO THE REGION
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WILL OFFER THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP
ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   34  44  37  44 /  60  20  20  20
FSM   35  48  43  44 /  90  20  20  30
MLC   37  48  41  46 /  70  20  20  30
BVO   32  41  35  42 /  70  30  20  20
FYV   32  44  38  43 /  80  30  20  20
BYV   32  41  36  40 /  80  30  20  20
MKO   35  44  39  45 /  80  20  20  20
MIO   33  40  35  41 /  80  30  20  20
F10   36  45  39  45 /  60  20  20  20
HHW   38  50  44  48 /  90  20  30  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....23





000
FXUS64 KTSA 172111
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
311 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A CHANGEOVER TO LIQUID PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN OBSERVED AS
LOWER LAYERS HAVE SATURATED AND STRONGER WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
TO DRAW CLOSER. HIGH POPS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER EXPECTED WITHIN
THE STRONGER WAA ZONE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z...BUT WILL TAPER
POPS FROM SW TO NE AS PRECIP BECOMES BETTER FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY
THAT SHARPENS FROM W-E ACROSS SRN KS/MO OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP MENTION
OF MIXED PRECIP ALONG THE BORDER COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
HOVER NEAR FREEZING IN THOSE LOCATIONS. LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR
MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN THE DEPARTING
WAVE AND APPROACHING MAIN UPPER TROUGH. HIGHEST QPF SIGNALS REMAIN
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...WITH MODELS SHOWING CONSISTENCY WITH
UPPER TROUGH MOTION ALONG WITH REDEVELOPING ASSOCIATED SURFACE
REFLECTIONS ACROSS TX AND LA. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS SE OK AND NW AR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP MIXED
PRECIP MENTION ACROSS FAR NW AR LATE FRIDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH
COLDER AIR THAT FILTERS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. WEAK UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW ACROSS JUST THE WRN ZONES.
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH IN NW FLOW WILL PUSH A FRONT INTO THE REGION
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WILL OFFER THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP
ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   34  44  37  44 /  60  20  20  20
FSM   35  48  43  44 /  90  20  20  30
MLC   37  48  41  46 /  70  20  20  30
BVO   32  41  35  42 /  70  30  20  20
FYV   32  44  38  43 /  80  30  20  20
BYV   32  41  36  40 /  80  30  20  20
MKO   35  44  39  45 /  80  20  20  20
MIO   33  40  35  41 /  80  30  20  20
F10   36  45  39  45 /  60  20  20  20
HHW   38  50  44  48 /  90  20  30  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....23






000
FXUS64 KTSA 172111
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
311 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A CHANGEOVER TO LIQUID PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN OBSERVED AS
LOWER LAYERS HAVE SATURATED AND STRONGER WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
TO DRAW CLOSER. HIGH POPS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER EXPECTED WITHIN
THE STRONGER WAA ZONE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z...BUT WILL TAPER
POPS FROM SW TO NE AS PRECIP BECOMES BETTER FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY
THAT SHARPENS FROM W-E ACROSS SRN KS/MO OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP MENTION
OF MIXED PRECIP ALONG THE BORDER COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
HOVER NEAR FREEZING IN THOSE LOCATIONS. LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR
MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN THE DEPARTING
WAVE AND APPROACHING MAIN UPPER TROUGH. HIGHEST QPF SIGNALS REMAIN
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...WITH MODELS SHOWING CONSISTENCY WITH
UPPER TROUGH MOTION ALONG WITH REDEVELOPING ASSOCIATED SURFACE
REFLECTIONS ACROSS TX AND LA. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS SE OK AND NW AR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP MIXED
PRECIP MENTION ACROSS FAR NW AR LATE FRIDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH
COLDER AIR THAT FILTERS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. WEAK UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW ACROSS JUST THE WRN ZONES.
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH IN NW FLOW WILL PUSH A FRONT INTO THE REGION
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WILL OFFER THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP
ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   34  44  37  44 /  60  20  20  20
FSM   35  48  43  44 /  90  20  20  30
MLC   37  48  41  46 /  70  20  20  30
BVO   32  41  35  42 /  70  30  20  20
FYV   32  44  38  43 /  80  30  20  20
BYV   32  41  36  40 /  80  30  20  20
MKO   35  44  39  45 /  80  20  20  20
MIO   33  40  35  41 /  80  30  20  20
F10   36  45  39  45 /  60  20  20  20
HHW   38  50  44  48 /  90  20  30  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....23





000
FXUS64 KTSA 172111
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
311 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A CHANGEOVER TO LIQUID PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN OBSERVED AS
LOWER LAYERS HAVE SATURATED AND STRONGER WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
TO DRAW CLOSER. HIGH POPS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER EXPECTED WITHIN
THE STRONGER WAA ZONE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z...BUT WILL TAPER
POPS FROM SW TO NE AS PRECIP BECOMES BETTER FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY
THAT SHARPENS FROM W-E ACROSS SRN KS/MO OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP MENTION
OF MIXED PRECIP ALONG THE BORDER COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
HOVER NEAR FREEZING IN THOSE LOCATIONS. LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR
MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN THE DEPARTING
WAVE AND APPROACHING MAIN UPPER TROUGH. HIGHEST QPF SIGNALS REMAIN
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...WITH MODELS SHOWING CONSISTENCY WITH
UPPER TROUGH MOTION ALONG WITH REDEVELOPING ASSOCIATED SURFACE
REFLECTIONS ACROSS TX AND LA. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS SE OK AND NW AR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP MIXED
PRECIP MENTION ACROSS FAR NW AR LATE FRIDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH
COLDER AIR THAT FILTERS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. WEAK UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW ACROSS JUST THE WRN ZONES.
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH IN NW FLOW WILL PUSH A FRONT INTO THE REGION
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WILL OFFER THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP
ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   34  44  37  44 /  60  20  20  20
FSM   35  48  43  44 /  90  20  20  30
MLC   37  48  41  46 /  70  20  20  30
BVO   32  41  35  42 /  70  30  20  20
FYV   32  44  38  43 /  80  30  20  20
BYV   32  41  36  40 /  80  30  20  20
MKO   35  44  39  45 /  80  20  20  20
MIO   33  40  35  41 /  80  30  20  20
F10   36  45  39  45 /  60  20  20  20
HHW   38  50  44  48 /  90  20  30  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....23






000
FXUS64 KTSA 171756
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1156 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE OK/WEST CENTRAL AR. POCKETS OF SLEET WILL
BE POSSIBLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND BVO. CEILING HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT
WITH FOG DEVELOPING INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED POCKETS OF SLEET CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE HEAVIER BAND OF SLEET MOVING
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY LATE MORNING.  TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE
WINTRY MIX COULD LINGER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS.
ANY SNOW POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT APPEARS TO REMAIN JUST NORTH OF
OK...AR STATE LINES...HOWEVER THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 171756
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1156 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE OK/WEST CENTRAL AR. POCKETS OF SLEET WILL
BE POSSIBLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND BVO. CEILING HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT
WITH FOG DEVELOPING INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED POCKETS OF SLEET CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE HEAVIER BAND OF SLEET MOVING
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY LATE MORNING.  TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE
WINTRY MIX COULD LINGER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS.
ANY SNOW POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT APPEARS TO REMAIN JUST NORTH OF
OK...AR STATE LINES...HOWEVER THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 171756
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1156 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE OK/WEST CENTRAL AR. POCKETS OF SLEET WILL
BE POSSIBLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND BVO. CEILING HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT
WITH FOG DEVELOPING INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED POCKETS OF SLEET CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE HEAVIER BAND OF SLEET MOVING
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY LATE MORNING.  TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE
WINTRY MIX COULD LINGER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS.
ANY SNOW POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT APPEARS TO REMAIN JUST NORTH OF
OK...AR STATE LINES...HOWEVER THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 171756
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1156 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE OK/WEST CENTRAL AR. POCKETS OF SLEET WILL
BE POSSIBLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND BVO. CEILING HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT
WITH FOG DEVELOPING INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED POCKETS OF SLEET CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE HEAVIER BAND OF SLEET MOVING
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY LATE MORNING.  TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE
WINTRY MIX COULD LINGER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS.
ANY SNOW POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT APPEARS TO REMAIN JUST NORTH OF
OK...AR STATE LINES...HOWEVER THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 171636
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1036 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED POCKETS OF SLEET CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE HEAVIER BAND OF SLEET MOVING
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY LATE MORNING.  TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE
WINTRY MIX COULD LINGER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS.
ANY SNOW POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT APPEARS TO REMAIN JUST NORTH OF
OK...AR STATE LINES...HOWEVER THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 171636
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1036 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED POCKETS OF SLEET CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE HEAVIER BAND OF SLEET MOVING
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY LATE MORNING.  TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE
WINTRY MIX COULD LINGER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS.
ANY SNOW POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT APPEARS TO REMAIN JUST NORTH OF
OK...AR STATE LINES...HOWEVER THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 171636
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1036 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED POCKETS OF SLEET CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE HEAVIER BAND OF SLEET MOVING
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY LATE MORNING.  TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE
WINTRY MIX COULD LINGER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS.
ANY SNOW POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT APPEARS TO REMAIN JUST NORTH OF
OK...AR STATE LINES...HOWEVER THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 171636
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1036 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED POCKETS OF SLEET CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE HEAVIER BAND OF SLEET MOVING
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY LATE MORNING.  TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE
WINTRY MIX COULD LINGER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS.
ANY SNOW POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT APPEARS TO REMAIN JUST NORTH OF
OK...AR STATE LINES...HOWEVER THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12






000
FXUS64 KOUN 171532
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
932 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED PRECIP/WX...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLEANED UP PRECIP/WX FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. REPORTS
CONTINUE TO COME IN OF RAIN/SLEET MIX ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NRN OK.
LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS... SOME DECENT WETBULBING CONTINUES
SUB-CLOUD LAYER... HOWEVER... SFC TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE REGION... EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTH CENTRAL OK... WHERE
TEMPS HAVE HOVERED NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL WITH THIS ACTIVITY. AS SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL OK... EXPECT PRECIP TYPE TO REMAIN
RAIN. HOWEVER... RAIN/SLEET MIX CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS FAR
NRN OK WITH ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY THAT REACHES THAT FAR NORTH.
CONTINUE A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER... AS SOME ISOLATED
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY MAINLY NEAR OUN/OKC AND
PNC. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE TO LOWER
TO AT LEAST IFR BY TONIGHT. DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL ALSO RESULT IN
VIS RESTRICTIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING FOR MOST TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN N TX AND SW OK EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AS SATURATION THROUGH THE LAYER
OCCURS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...A MID TO UPPER DRY SLOT WILL
MOVE OVER SW OK AND WESTERN N TX. IT WILL THEN PASS OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL OK RESULTING IN A TRANSITION TO MOSTLY DRIZZLE ALONG
AND WEST OF I35. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN OK WHERE
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE TO KEEP RAIN
SHOWERS...WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW MIXED IN...PRESENT. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING...THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL END.
HOWEVER...LOW CHANCES OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THROUGH THE DAY. THE PREVIOUS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS BELOW
AVG ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I44. LOW PRECIP CHCS WILL
CONTINUE THURS NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE AGREEMENT NOW IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
FEATURE SO HAVE DECREASED AND NUDGED POPS ACCORDINGLY. STILL
THINK ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT TO SQUEEZE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL OK DURING THE DAY FRI...BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER.

IT WILL REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE THROUGH FRI WITH CLOUD COVER
PRESENT MOST OF THE DAY...AND MUCH COLDER 850 MB TEMPS SLIDING
OVERHEAD AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO DEEP SOUTH TX. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL FINALLY RETURN BY THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLOW WARM UP
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY.
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY A DIGGING DEEP UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  41  38  44  38 /  60  50  40  20
HOBART OK         41  38  45  38 /  30  30  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  43  41  51  40 /  60  30  10  30
GAGE OK           42  36  41  33 /  30  30  30  10
PONCA CITY OK     37  34  41  34 /  50  60  40  10
DURANT OK         43  40  48  43 /  80  70  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/26




000
FXUS64 KOUN 171532
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
932 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED PRECIP/WX...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLEANED UP PRECIP/WX FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. REPORTS
CONTINUE TO COME IN OF RAIN/SLEET MIX ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NRN OK.
LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS... SOME DECENT WETBULBING CONTINUES
SUB-CLOUD LAYER... HOWEVER... SFC TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE REGION... EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTH CENTRAL OK... WHERE
TEMPS HAVE HOVERED NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL WITH THIS ACTIVITY. AS SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL OK... EXPECT PRECIP TYPE TO REMAIN
RAIN. HOWEVER... RAIN/SLEET MIX CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS FAR
NRN OK WITH ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY THAT REACHES THAT FAR NORTH.
CONTINUE A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER... AS SOME ISOLATED
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY MAINLY NEAR OUN/OKC AND
PNC. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE TO LOWER
TO AT LEAST IFR BY TONIGHT. DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL ALSO RESULT IN
VIS RESTRICTIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING FOR MOST TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN N TX AND SW OK EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AS SATURATION THROUGH THE LAYER
OCCURS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...A MID TO UPPER DRY SLOT WILL
MOVE OVER SW OK AND WESTERN N TX. IT WILL THEN PASS OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL OK RESULTING IN A TRANSITION TO MOSTLY DRIZZLE ALONG
AND WEST OF I35. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN OK WHERE
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE TO KEEP RAIN
SHOWERS...WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW MIXED IN...PRESENT. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING...THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL END.
HOWEVER...LOW CHANCES OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THROUGH THE DAY. THE PREVIOUS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS BELOW
AVG ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I44. LOW PRECIP CHCS WILL
CONTINUE THURS NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE AGREEMENT NOW IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
FEATURE SO HAVE DECREASED AND NUDGED POPS ACCORDINGLY. STILL
THINK ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT TO SQUEEZE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL OK DURING THE DAY FRI...BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER.

IT WILL REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE THROUGH FRI WITH CLOUD COVER
PRESENT MOST OF THE DAY...AND MUCH COLDER 850 MB TEMPS SLIDING
OVERHEAD AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO DEEP SOUTH TX. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL FINALLY RETURN BY THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLOW WARM UP
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY.
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY A DIGGING DEEP UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  41  38  44  38 /  60  50  40  20
HOBART OK         41  38  45  38 /  30  30  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  43  41  51  40 /  60  30  10  30
GAGE OK           42  36  41  33 /  30  30  30  10
PONCA CITY OK     37  34  41  34 /  50  60  40  10
DURANT OK         43  40  48  43 /  80  70  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/26




000
FXUS64 KOUN 171532
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
932 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED PRECIP/WX...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLEANED UP PRECIP/WX FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. REPORTS
CONTINUE TO COME IN OF RAIN/SLEET MIX ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NRN OK.
LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS... SOME DECENT WETBULBING CONTINUES
SUB-CLOUD LAYER... HOWEVER... SFC TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE REGION... EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTH CENTRAL OK... WHERE
TEMPS HAVE HOVERED NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL WITH THIS ACTIVITY. AS SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL OK... EXPECT PRECIP TYPE TO REMAIN
RAIN. HOWEVER... RAIN/SLEET MIX CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS FAR
NRN OK WITH ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY THAT REACHES THAT FAR NORTH.
CONTINUE A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER... AS SOME ISOLATED
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY MAINLY NEAR OUN/OKC AND
PNC. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE TO LOWER
TO AT LEAST IFR BY TONIGHT. DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL ALSO RESULT IN
VIS RESTRICTIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING FOR MOST TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN N TX AND SW OK EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AS SATURATION THROUGH THE LAYER
OCCURS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...A MID TO UPPER DRY SLOT WILL
MOVE OVER SW OK AND WESTERN N TX. IT WILL THEN PASS OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL OK RESULTING IN A TRANSITION TO MOSTLY DRIZZLE ALONG
AND WEST OF I35. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN OK WHERE
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE TO KEEP RAIN
SHOWERS...WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW MIXED IN...PRESENT. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING...THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL END.
HOWEVER...LOW CHANCES OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THROUGH THE DAY. THE PREVIOUS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS BELOW
AVG ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I44. LOW PRECIP CHCS WILL
CONTINUE THURS NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE AGREEMENT NOW IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
FEATURE SO HAVE DECREASED AND NUDGED POPS ACCORDINGLY. STILL
THINK ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT TO SQUEEZE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL OK DURING THE DAY FRI...BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER.

IT WILL REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE THROUGH FRI WITH CLOUD COVER
PRESENT MOST OF THE DAY...AND MUCH COLDER 850 MB TEMPS SLIDING
OVERHEAD AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO DEEP SOUTH TX. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL FINALLY RETURN BY THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLOW WARM UP
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY.
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY A DIGGING DEEP UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  41  38  44  38 /  60  50  40  20
HOBART OK         41  38  45  38 /  30  30  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  43  41  51  40 /  60  30  10  30
GAGE OK           42  36  41  33 /  30  30  30  10
PONCA CITY OK     37  34  41  34 /  50  60  40  10
DURANT OK         43  40  48  43 /  80  70  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/26




000
FXUS64 KOUN 171532
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
932 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED PRECIP/WX...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLEANED UP PRECIP/WX FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. REPORTS
CONTINUE TO COME IN OF RAIN/SLEET MIX ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NRN OK.
LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS... SOME DECENT WETBULBING CONTINUES
SUB-CLOUD LAYER... HOWEVER... SFC TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE REGION... EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTH CENTRAL OK... WHERE
TEMPS HAVE HOVERED NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL WITH THIS ACTIVITY. AS SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL OK... EXPECT PRECIP TYPE TO REMAIN
RAIN. HOWEVER... RAIN/SLEET MIX CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS FAR
NRN OK WITH ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY THAT REACHES THAT FAR NORTH.
CONTINUE A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER... AS SOME ISOLATED
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY MAINLY NEAR OUN/OKC AND
PNC. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE TO LOWER
TO AT LEAST IFR BY TONIGHT. DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL ALSO RESULT IN
VIS RESTRICTIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING FOR MOST TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN N TX AND SW OK EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AS SATURATION THROUGH THE LAYER
OCCURS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...A MID TO UPPER DRY SLOT WILL
MOVE OVER SW OK AND WESTERN N TX. IT WILL THEN PASS OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL OK RESULTING IN A TRANSITION TO MOSTLY DRIZZLE ALONG
AND WEST OF I35. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN OK WHERE
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE TO KEEP RAIN
SHOWERS...WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW MIXED IN...PRESENT. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING...THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL END.
HOWEVER...LOW CHANCES OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THROUGH THE DAY. THE PREVIOUS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS BELOW
AVG ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I44. LOW PRECIP CHCS WILL
CONTINUE THURS NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE AGREEMENT NOW IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
FEATURE SO HAVE DECREASED AND NUDGED POPS ACCORDINGLY. STILL
THINK ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT TO SQUEEZE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL OK DURING THE DAY FRI...BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER.

IT WILL REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE THROUGH FRI WITH CLOUD COVER
PRESENT MOST OF THE DAY...AND MUCH COLDER 850 MB TEMPS SLIDING
OVERHEAD AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO DEEP SOUTH TX. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL FINALLY RETURN BY THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLOW WARM UP
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY.
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY A DIGGING DEEP UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  41  38  44  38 /  60  50  40  20
HOBART OK         41  38  45  38 /  30  30  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  43  41  51  40 /  60  30  10  30
GAGE OK           42  36  41  33 /  30  30  30  10
PONCA CITY OK     37  34  41  34 /  50  60  40  10
DURANT OK         43  40  48  43 /  80  70  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/26




000
FXUS64 KOUN 171157
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
557 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY MAINLY NEAR OUN/OKC AND
PNC. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE TO LOWER
TO AT LEAST IFR BY TONIGHT. DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL ALSO RESULT IN
VIS RESTRICTIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING FOR MOST TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN N TX AND SW OK EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AS SATURATION THROUGH THE LAYER
OCCURS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...A MID TO UPPER DRY SLOT WILL
MOVE OVER SW OK AND WESTERN N TX. IT WILL THEN PASS OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL OK RESULTING IN A TRANSITION TO MOSTLY DRIZZLE ALONG
AND WEST OF I35. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN OK WHERE
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE TO KEEP RAIN
SHOWERS...WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW MIXED IN...PRESENT. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING...THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL END.
HOWEVER...LOW CHANCES OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THROUGH THE DAY. THE PREVIOUS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS BELOW
AVG ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I44. LOW PRECIP CHCS WILL
CONTINUE THURS NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE AGREEMENT NOW IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
FEATURE SO HAVE DECREASED AND NUDGED POPS ACCORDINGLY. STILL
THINK ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT TO SQUEEZE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL OK DURING THE DAY FRI...BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER.

IT WILL REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE THROUGH FRI WITH CLOUD COVER
PRESENT MOST OF THE DAY...AND MUCH COLDER 850 MB TEMPS SLIDING
OVERHEAD AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO DEEP SOUTH TX. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL FINALLY RETURN BY THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLOW WARM UP
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY.
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY A DIGGING DEEP UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  42  38  44  38 /  60  50  40  20
HOBART OK         42  38  45  38 /  30  30  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  43  41  51  40 /  60  30  10  30
GAGE OK           44  36  41  33 /  30  30  30  10
PONCA CITY OK     38  34  41  34 /  50  60  40  10
DURANT OK         43  40  48  43 /  80  70  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/03/03



000
FXUS64 KOUN 171120
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
520 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN N TX AND SW OK EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AS SATURATION THROUGH THE LAYER
OCCURS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...A MID TO UPPER DRY SLOT WILL
MOVE OVER SW OK AND WESTERN N TX. IT WILL THEN PASS OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL OK RESULTING IN A TRANSITION TO MOSTLY DRIZZLE ALONG
AND WEST OF I35. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN OK WHERE
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE TO KEEP RAIN
SHOWERS...WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW MIXED IN...PRESENT. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING...THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL END.
HOWEVER...LOW CHANCES OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THROUGH THE DAY. THE PREVIOUS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS BELOW
AVG ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I44. LOW PRECIP CHCS WILL
CONTINUE THURS NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE AGREEMENT NOW IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
FEATURE SO HAVE DECREASED AND NUDGED POPS ACCORDINGLY. STILL
THINK ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT TO SQUEEZE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL OK DURING THE DAY FRI...BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER.

IT WILL REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE THROUGH FRI WITH CLOUD COVER
PRESENT MOST OF THE DAY...AND MUCH COLDER 850 MB TEMPS SLIDING
OVERHEAD AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO DEEP SOUTH TX. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL FINALLY RETURN BY THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLOW WARM UP
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY.
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY A DIGGING DEEP UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  42  38  44  38 /  60  50  40  20
HOBART OK         42  38  45  38 /  30  30  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  43  41  51  40 /  60  30  10  30
GAGE OK           44  36  41  33 /  30  30  30  10
PONCA CITY OK     38  34  41  34 /  50  60  40  10
DURANT OK         43  40  48  43 /  80  70  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 171120
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
520 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN N TX AND SW OK EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AS SATURATION THROUGH THE LAYER
OCCURS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...A MID TO UPPER DRY SLOT WILL
MOVE OVER SW OK AND WESTERN N TX. IT WILL THEN PASS OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL OK RESULTING IN A TRANSITION TO MOSTLY DRIZZLE ALONG
AND WEST OF I35. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN OK WHERE
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE TO KEEP RAIN
SHOWERS...WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW MIXED IN...PRESENT. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING...THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL END.
HOWEVER...LOW CHANCES OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THROUGH THE DAY. THE PREVIOUS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS BELOW
AVG ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I44. LOW PRECIP CHCS WILL
CONTINUE THURS NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE AGREEMENT NOW IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
FEATURE SO HAVE DECREASED AND NUDGED POPS ACCORDINGLY. STILL
THINK ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT TO SQUEEZE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL OK DURING THE DAY FRI...BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER.

IT WILL REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE THROUGH FRI WITH CLOUD COVER
PRESENT MOST OF THE DAY...AND MUCH COLDER 850 MB TEMPS SLIDING
OVERHEAD AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO DEEP SOUTH TX. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL FINALLY RETURN BY THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLOW WARM UP
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY.
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY A DIGGING DEEP UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  42  38  44  38 /  60  50  40  20
HOBART OK         42  38  45  38 /  30  30  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  43  41  51  40 /  60  30  10  30
GAGE OK           44  36  41  33 /  30  30  30  10
PONCA CITY OK     38  34  41  34 /  50  60  40  10
DURANT OK         43  40  48  43 /  80  70  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 171120
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
520 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN N TX AND SW OK EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AS SATURATION THROUGH THE LAYER
OCCURS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...A MID TO UPPER DRY SLOT WILL
MOVE OVER SW OK AND WESTERN N TX. IT WILL THEN PASS OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL OK RESULTING IN A TRANSITION TO MOSTLY DRIZZLE ALONG
AND WEST OF I35. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN OK WHERE
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE TO KEEP RAIN
SHOWERS...WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW MIXED IN...PRESENT. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING...THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL END.
HOWEVER...LOW CHANCES OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THROUGH THE DAY. THE PREVIOUS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS BELOW
AVG ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I44. LOW PRECIP CHCS WILL
CONTINUE THURS NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE AGREEMENT NOW IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
FEATURE SO HAVE DECREASED AND NUDGED POPS ACCORDINGLY. STILL
THINK ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT TO SQUEEZE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL OK DURING THE DAY FRI...BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER.

IT WILL REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE THROUGH FRI WITH CLOUD COVER
PRESENT MOST OF THE DAY...AND MUCH COLDER 850 MB TEMPS SLIDING
OVERHEAD AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO DEEP SOUTH TX. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL FINALLY RETURN BY THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLOW WARM UP
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY.
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY A DIGGING DEEP UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  42  38  44  38 /  60  50  40  20
HOBART OK         42  38  45  38 /  30  30  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  43  41  51  40 /  60  30  10  30
GAGE OK           44  36  41  33 /  30  30  30  10
PONCA CITY OK     38  34  41  34 /  50  60  40  10
DURANT OK         43  40  48  43 /  80  70  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 171120
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
520 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN N TX AND SW OK EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AS SATURATION THROUGH THE LAYER
OCCURS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...A MID TO UPPER DRY SLOT WILL
MOVE OVER SW OK AND WESTERN N TX. IT WILL THEN PASS OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL OK RESULTING IN A TRANSITION TO MOSTLY DRIZZLE ALONG
AND WEST OF I35. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN OK WHERE
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE TO KEEP RAIN
SHOWERS...WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW MIXED IN...PRESENT. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING...THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL END.
HOWEVER...LOW CHANCES OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THROUGH THE DAY. THE PREVIOUS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS BELOW
AVG ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I44. LOW PRECIP CHCS WILL
CONTINUE THURS NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE AGREEMENT NOW IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
FEATURE SO HAVE DECREASED AND NUDGED POPS ACCORDINGLY. STILL
THINK ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT TO SQUEEZE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL OK DURING THE DAY FRI...BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER.

IT WILL REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE THROUGH FRI WITH CLOUD COVER
PRESENT MOST OF THE DAY...AND MUCH COLDER 850 MB TEMPS SLIDING
OVERHEAD AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO DEEP SOUTH TX. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL FINALLY RETURN BY THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLOW WARM UP
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY.
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY A DIGGING DEEP UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  42  38  44  38 /  60  50  40  20
HOBART OK         42  38  45  38 /  30  30  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  43  41  51  40 /  60  30  10  30
GAGE OK           44  36  41  33 /  30  30  30  10
PONCA CITY OK     38  34  41  34 /  50  60  40  10
DURANT OK         43  40  48  43 /  80  70  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/03




000
FXUS64 KTSA 171104
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
504 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AS RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVES INTO THE
REGION... AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON... WITH IFR CEILINGS BECOMING LIKELY THIS
EVENING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WELL DEFINED WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ WITH FETCH
OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING IN ITS ADVANCE. THESE FEATURES
WILL COMBINE TO SPREAD WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL NOT WARM MUCH TODAY AND THE COLD RAIN WILL
MAKE FOR A RAW EARLY WINTER DAY.

THIS WAVE PASSES WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY WHILE THE NEXT WAVE QUICKLY FOLLOWS BUT TRACKS FURTHER
SOUTH PASSING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY / FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BULK OF
THE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 MOST LIKELY
TO RECEIVE MEASURABLE PRECIP FROM THIS EVENT.

TEMPS WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN DOES LOOK TO BE CHANGING
BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK W/ RIDGING AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...AND THE INITIAL DOWNSTREAM TROUGH BRINGING A CHANCE OF
LIGHT PRECIP THE AREA MONDAY / TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN IS ALSO
FAVORABLE FOR VERY COLD AIR TO SPILL SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS
AND THIS LOOKS POSSIBLE BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 171104
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
504 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AS RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVES INTO THE
REGION... AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON... WITH IFR CEILINGS BECOMING LIKELY THIS
EVENING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WELL DEFINED WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ WITH FETCH
OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING IN ITS ADVANCE. THESE FEATURES
WILL COMBINE TO SPREAD WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL NOT WARM MUCH TODAY AND THE COLD RAIN WILL
MAKE FOR A RAW EARLY WINTER DAY.

THIS WAVE PASSES WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY WHILE THE NEXT WAVE QUICKLY FOLLOWS BUT TRACKS FURTHER
SOUTH PASSING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY / FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BULK OF
THE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 MOST LIKELY
TO RECEIVE MEASURABLE PRECIP FROM THIS EVENT.

TEMPS WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN DOES LOOK TO BE CHANGING
BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK W/ RIDGING AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...AND THE INITIAL DOWNSTREAM TROUGH BRINGING A CHANCE OF
LIGHT PRECIP THE AREA MONDAY / TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN IS ALSO
FAVORABLE FOR VERY COLD AIR TO SPILL SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS
AND THIS LOOKS POSSIBLE BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 170956
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
356 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WELL DEFINED WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ WITH FETCH
OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING IN ITS ADVANCE. THESE FEATURES
WILL COMBINE TO SPREAD WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL NOT WARM MUCH TODAY AND THE COLD RAIN WILL
MAKE FOR A RAW EARLY WINTER DAY.

THIS WAVE PASSES WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY WHILE THE NEXT WAVE QUICKLY FOLLOWS BUT TRACKS FURTHER
SOUTH PASSING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY / FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BULK OF
THE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 MOST LIKELY
TO RECEIVE MEASURABLE PRECIP FROM THIS EVENT.

TEMPS WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN DOES LOOK TO BE CHANGING
BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK W/ RIDGING AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...AND THE INITIAL DOWNSTREAM TROUGH BRINGING A CHANCE OF
LIGHT PRECIP THE AREA MONDAY / TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN IS ALSO
FAVORABLE FOR VERY COLD AIR TO SPILL SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS
AND THIS LOOKS POSSIBLE BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   41  37  45  37 /  60  70  30  20
FSM   43  37  46  41 /  60 100  20  20
MLC   43  39  48  41 /  70  90  20  20
BVO   39  34  43  34 /  50  70  30  20
FYV   42  35  43  37 /  60  80  20  20
BYV   41  34  42  36 /  60  80  30  20
MKO   41  37  45  39 /  60  80  20  20
MIO   40  34  42  35 /  50  80  40  20
F10   41  38  47  39 /  60  80  20  20
HHW   44  39  50  44 /  70 100  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07





000
FXUS64 KTSA 170956
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
356 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WELL DEFINED WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ WITH FETCH
OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING IN ITS ADVANCE. THESE FEATURES
WILL COMBINE TO SPREAD WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL NOT WARM MUCH TODAY AND THE COLD RAIN WILL
MAKE FOR A RAW EARLY WINTER DAY.

THIS WAVE PASSES WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY WHILE THE NEXT WAVE QUICKLY FOLLOWS BUT TRACKS FURTHER
SOUTH PASSING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY / FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BULK OF
THE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 MOST LIKELY
TO RECEIVE MEASURABLE PRECIP FROM THIS EVENT.

TEMPS WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN DOES LOOK TO BE CHANGING
BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK W/ RIDGING AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...AND THE INITIAL DOWNSTREAM TROUGH BRINGING A CHANCE OF
LIGHT PRECIP THE AREA MONDAY / TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN IS ALSO
FAVORABLE FOR VERY COLD AIR TO SPILL SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS
AND THIS LOOKS POSSIBLE BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   41  37  45  37 /  60  70  30  20
FSM   43  37  46  41 /  60 100  20  20
MLC   43  39  48  41 /  70  90  20  20
BVO   39  34  43  34 /  50  70  30  20
FYV   42  35  43  37 /  60  80  20  20
BYV   41  34  42  36 /  60  80  30  20
MKO   41  37  45  39 /  60  80  20  20
MIO   40  34  42  35 /  50  80  40  20
F10   41  38  47  39 /  60  80  20  20
HHW   44  39  50  44 /  70 100  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 170956
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
356 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WELL DEFINED WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ WITH FETCH
OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING IN ITS ADVANCE. THESE FEATURES
WILL COMBINE TO SPREAD WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL NOT WARM MUCH TODAY AND THE COLD RAIN WILL
MAKE FOR A RAW EARLY WINTER DAY.

THIS WAVE PASSES WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY WHILE THE NEXT WAVE QUICKLY FOLLOWS BUT TRACKS FURTHER
SOUTH PASSING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY / FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BULK OF
THE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 MOST LIKELY
TO RECEIVE MEASURABLE PRECIP FROM THIS EVENT.

TEMPS WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN DOES LOOK TO BE CHANGING
BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK W/ RIDGING AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...AND THE INITIAL DOWNSTREAM TROUGH BRINGING A CHANCE OF
LIGHT PRECIP THE AREA MONDAY / TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN IS ALSO
FAVORABLE FOR VERY COLD AIR TO SPILL SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS
AND THIS LOOKS POSSIBLE BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   41  37  45  37 /  60  70  30  20
FSM   43  37  46  41 /  60 100  20  20
MLC   43  39  48  41 /  70  90  20  20
BVO   39  34  43  34 /  50  70  30  20
FYV   42  35  43  37 /  60  80  20  20
BYV   41  34  42  36 /  60  80  30  20
MKO   41  37  45  39 /  60  80  20  20
MIO   40  34  42  35 /  50  80  40  20
F10   41  38  47  39 /  60  80  20  20
HHW   44  39  50  44 /  70 100  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07





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