Home > Products > State Listing > Oklahoma Data
Latest:
 AFDOUN |  AFDTSA |
  [top]

000
FXUS64 KOUN 231117
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
617 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHES OF BR...AND ISOLATED AREAS OF FG...WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN
A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY OF SCT TSRA...MAINLY E OF A LINE FROM KPNC TO
KSPS. OTHERWISE...ONLY LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AND WE WILL RETAIN THE
EXISTING HEAT ADVISORY...WHICH CURRENTLY EXPIRES AT 7 PM THIS
EVENING. TOMORROW AND FRIDAY WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
TEMPERATURES...BUT LOWER DEW POINTS...THAN TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL
BE MARGINAL FOR A CONTINUED HEAT ADVISORY TOMORROW...BUT AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES WILL BE WELL WITHIN ADVISORY CRITERIA ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...WE MAY NOT MEET THE 48-HOUR PERSISTENCE CRITERIA ON
FRIDAY IF THURSDAY IS COOLER THAN EXPECTED. WILL DEFER TO LATER
SHIFTS TO DECIDE ON WHETHER AN EXTENSION TO THE HEAT ADVISORY IS
APPROPRIATE.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST INTO OKLAHOMA
TODAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANY
STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SOUTHEAST OF I-44.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE HOT AS SOUTHWEST LOW-
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION...IN ADVANCE OF A
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST.

A STRONGER FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING A
BREAK FROM THE HEAT...AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT A FAIRLY HIGH CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL ARRIVE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THAT IS
BEYOND THE RANGE OF THIS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  95  72  96  76 /  10  10   0   0
HOBART OK         99  72 100  74 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  74 100  76 /  10  10   0   0
GAGE OK           98  70 100  76 /  10  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     94  72  92  77 /  10  10   0   0
DURANT OK         96  73 100  74 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ006>008-011>031-
     033>042-044>047-050-051.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

30/23/23



000
FXUS64 KOUN 231117
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
617 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHES OF BR...AND ISOLATED AREAS OF FG...WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN
A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY OF SCT TSRA...MAINLY E OF A LINE FROM KPNC TO
KSPS. OTHERWISE...ONLY LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AND WE WILL RETAIN THE
EXISTING HEAT ADVISORY...WHICH CURRENTLY EXPIRES AT 7 PM THIS
EVENING. TOMORROW AND FRIDAY WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
TEMPERATURES...BUT LOWER DEW POINTS...THAN TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL
BE MARGINAL FOR A CONTINUED HEAT ADVISORY TOMORROW...BUT AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES WILL BE WELL WITHIN ADVISORY CRITERIA ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...WE MAY NOT MEET THE 48-HOUR PERSISTENCE CRITERIA ON
FRIDAY IF THURSDAY IS COOLER THAN EXPECTED. WILL DEFER TO LATER
SHIFTS TO DECIDE ON WHETHER AN EXTENSION TO THE HEAT ADVISORY IS
APPROPRIATE.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST INTO OKLAHOMA
TODAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANY
STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SOUTHEAST OF I-44.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE HOT AS SOUTHWEST LOW-
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION...IN ADVANCE OF A
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST.

A STRONGER FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING A
BREAK FROM THE HEAT...AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT A FAIRLY HIGH CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL ARRIVE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THAT IS
BEYOND THE RANGE OF THIS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  95  72  96  76 /  10  10   0   0
HOBART OK         99  72 100  74 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  74 100  76 /  10  10   0   0
GAGE OK           98  70 100  76 /  10  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     94  72  92  77 /  10  10   0   0
DURANT OK         96  73 100  74 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ006>008-011>031-
     033>042-044>047-050-051.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

30/23/23



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KTSA 231114
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
614 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP LATER TODAY. HAVE REPRESENTED THIS POSSIBILITY WITH VCTS
AND PROB30 GROUPS IN THE AFFECTED TAFS.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER COLORADO THIS MORNING...WITH
DISTURBANCES TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS SLIDING
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KS/MO AS OF 08Z. SHORT TERM HI RES MODELS WERE
FORECASTING TSTORM DVLPMT UP IN THE MO OZARKS AND TRACKING IT
SWWRD INTO NW AR/NE OK. SO FAR THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED...AND THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE LOCAL WRF MODEL HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE IDEA AS
WELL. WHAT IS MOST LIKELY IS ISOLD TO SCT AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT DROPS SOUTH INTO OUR AREA LATER TODAY...WITH
THE BEST COVERAGE OVER IN NW/W CNTRL AR AND E CNTRL/SE OK. THERE
IS AN ELEVATED THREAT OF DMGG WINDS AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CORES AS THEY PLUNGE SWWRD IN THE NERLY
FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION ARE VERY
SAUNA-LIKE THIS MORNING...IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND THEY ARE NOT
FORECAST TO DROP NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER. THUS...WITH
CONVECTION MOST LIKELY HOLDING OFF TILL LATER IN THE DAY...HEAT
INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE DANGEROUS 105 TO 110 RANGE FROM THE
LOWER ARK RIVER VALLEY INTO EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OK. THE
HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE EXPANDED SOME WHERE CRITERIA IS FORECAST TO
BE MET. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING THIS EVENING...WHILE SHIFTING SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST OK WITH
THE FRONT. A SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF
BREAK FROM THE HEAT THURSDAY.

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND BACK OVER OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THIS TIME A BIT FLATTER IN ORIENTATION THAN
BEFORE...ALLOWING FOR MORE DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE ROCKPILE. THIS
SHOWS UP AS A MORE INTENSE 850MB THERMAL RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO
EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS A
RESULT...IT APPEARS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COME VERY CLOSE TO...IF
NOT TOUCH...THE CENTURY MARK THIS GO AROUND ACROSS NE OK...AND
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR DAYS NOW...THE RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE
WEST WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS WILL GAIN A SIGNIFICANT
NORTHERLY COMPONENT...AND A PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL FORCE A DECENT COLD FRONT SOUTH THRU THE
PLAINS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STORMS WITH THE FRONT...BUT THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE BIG
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. HIGHS WILL DROP TO BELOW AVERAGE BACK INTO
THE 80S TO START THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ060.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ059-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ064-OKZ065-
     OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-
     OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ019-
     ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 231114
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
614 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP LATER TODAY. HAVE REPRESENTED THIS POSSIBILITY WITH VCTS
AND PROB30 GROUPS IN THE AFFECTED TAFS.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER COLORADO THIS MORNING...WITH
DISTURBANCES TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS SLIDING
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KS/MO AS OF 08Z. SHORT TERM HI RES MODELS WERE
FORECASTING TSTORM DVLPMT UP IN THE MO OZARKS AND TRACKING IT
SWWRD INTO NW AR/NE OK. SO FAR THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED...AND THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE LOCAL WRF MODEL HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE IDEA AS
WELL. WHAT IS MOST LIKELY IS ISOLD TO SCT AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT DROPS SOUTH INTO OUR AREA LATER TODAY...WITH
THE BEST COVERAGE OVER IN NW/W CNTRL AR AND E CNTRL/SE OK. THERE
IS AN ELEVATED THREAT OF DMGG WINDS AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CORES AS THEY PLUNGE SWWRD IN THE NERLY
FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION ARE VERY
SAUNA-LIKE THIS MORNING...IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND THEY ARE NOT
FORECAST TO DROP NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER. THUS...WITH
CONVECTION MOST LIKELY HOLDING OFF TILL LATER IN THE DAY...HEAT
INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE DANGEROUS 105 TO 110 RANGE FROM THE
LOWER ARK RIVER VALLEY INTO EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OK. THE
HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE EXPANDED SOME WHERE CRITERIA IS FORECAST TO
BE MET. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING THIS EVENING...WHILE SHIFTING SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST OK WITH
THE FRONT. A SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF
BREAK FROM THE HEAT THURSDAY.

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND BACK OVER OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THIS TIME A BIT FLATTER IN ORIENTATION THAN
BEFORE...ALLOWING FOR MORE DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE ROCKPILE. THIS
SHOWS UP AS A MORE INTENSE 850MB THERMAL RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO
EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS A
RESULT...IT APPEARS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COME VERY CLOSE TO...IF
NOT TOUCH...THE CENTURY MARK THIS GO AROUND ACROSS NE OK...AND
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR DAYS NOW...THE RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE
WEST WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS WILL GAIN A SIGNIFICANT
NORTHERLY COMPONENT...AND A PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL FORCE A DECENT COLD FRONT SOUTH THRU THE
PLAINS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STORMS WITH THE FRONT...BUT THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE BIG
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. HIGHS WILL DROP TO BELOW AVERAGE BACK INTO
THE 80S TO START THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ060.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ059-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ064-OKZ065-
     OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-
     OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ019-
     ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 231114
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
614 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP LATER TODAY. HAVE REPRESENTED THIS POSSIBILITY WITH VCTS
AND PROB30 GROUPS IN THE AFFECTED TAFS.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER COLORADO THIS MORNING...WITH
DISTURBANCES TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS SLIDING
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KS/MO AS OF 08Z. SHORT TERM HI RES MODELS WERE
FORECASTING TSTORM DVLPMT UP IN THE MO OZARKS AND TRACKING IT
SWWRD INTO NW AR/NE OK. SO FAR THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED...AND THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE LOCAL WRF MODEL HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE IDEA AS
WELL. WHAT IS MOST LIKELY IS ISOLD TO SCT AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT DROPS SOUTH INTO OUR AREA LATER TODAY...WITH
THE BEST COVERAGE OVER IN NW/W CNTRL AR AND E CNTRL/SE OK. THERE
IS AN ELEVATED THREAT OF DMGG WINDS AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CORES AS THEY PLUNGE SWWRD IN THE NERLY
FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION ARE VERY
SAUNA-LIKE THIS MORNING...IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND THEY ARE NOT
FORECAST TO DROP NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER. THUS...WITH
CONVECTION MOST LIKELY HOLDING OFF TILL LATER IN THE DAY...HEAT
INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE DANGEROUS 105 TO 110 RANGE FROM THE
LOWER ARK RIVER VALLEY INTO EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OK. THE
HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE EXPANDED SOME WHERE CRITERIA IS FORECAST TO
BE MET. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING THIS EVENING...WHILE SHIFTING SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST OK WITH
THE FRONT. A SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF
BREAK FROM THE HEAT THURSDAY.

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND BACK OVER OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THIS TIME A BIT FLATTER IN ORIENTATION THAN
BEFORE...ALLOWING FOR MORE DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE ROCKPILE. THIS
SHOWS UP AS A MORE INTENSE 850MB THERMAL RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO
EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS A
RESULT...IT APPEARS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COME VERY CLOSE TO...IF
NOT TOUCH...THE CENTURY MARK THIS GO AROUND ACROSS NE OK...AND
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR DAYS NOW...THE RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE
WEST WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS WILL GAIN A SIGNIFICANT
NORTHERLY COMPONENT...AND A PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL FORCE A DECENT COLD FRONT SOUTH THRU THE
PLAINS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STORMS WITH THE FRONT...BUT THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE BIG
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. HIGHS WILL DROP TO BELOW AVERAGE BACK INTO
THE 80S TO START THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ060.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ059-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ064-OKZ065-
     OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-
     OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ019-
     ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 231114
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
614 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP LATER TODAY. HAVE REPRESENTED THIS POSSIBILITY WITH VCTS
AND PROB30 GROUPS IN THE AFFECTED TAFS.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER COLORADO THIS MORNING...WITH
DISTURBANCES TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS SLIDING
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KS/MO AS OF 08Z. SHORT TERM HI RES MODELS WERE
FORECASTING TSTORM DVLPMT UP IN THE MO OZARKS AND TRACKING IT
SWWRD INTO NW AR/NE OK. SO FAR THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED...AND THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE LOCAL WRF MODEL HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE IDEA AS
WELL. WHAT IS MOST LIKELY IS ISOLD TO SCT AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT DROPS SOUTH INTO OUR AREA LATER TODAY...WITH
THE BEST COVERAGE OVER IN NW/W CNTRL AR AND E CNTRL/SE OK. THERE
IS AN ELEVATED THREAT OF DMGG WINDS AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CORES AS THEY PLUNGE SWWRD IN THE NERLY
FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION ARE VERY
SAUNA-LIKE THIS MORNING...IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND THEY ARE NOT
FORECAST TO DROP NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER. THUS...WITH
CONVECTION MOST LIKELY HOLDING OFF TILL LATER IN THE DAY...HEAT
INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE DANGEROUS 105 TO 110 RANGE FROM THE
LOWER ARK RIVER VALLEY INTO EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OK. THE
HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE EXPANDED SOME WHERE CRITERIA IS FORECAST TO
BE MET. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING THIS EVENING...WHILE SHIFTING SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST OK WITH
THE FRONT. A SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF
BREAK FROM THE HEAT THURSDAY.

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND BACK OVER OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THIS TIME A BIT FLATTER IN ORIENTATION THAN
BEFORE...ALLOWING FOR MORE DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE ROCKPILE. THIS
SHOWS UP AS A MORE INTENSE 850MB THERMAL RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO
EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS A
RESULT...IT APPEARS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COME VERY CLOSE TO...IF
NOT TOUCH...THE CENTURY MARK THIS GO AROUND ACROSS NE OK...AND
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR DAYS NOW...THE RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE
WEST WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS WILL GAIN A SIGNIFICANT
NORTHERLY COMPONENT...AND A PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL FORCE A DECENT COLD FRONT SOUTH THRU THE
PLAINS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STORMS WITH THE FRONT...BUT THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE BIG
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. HIGHS WILL DROP TO BELOW AVERAGE BACK INTO
THE 80S TO START THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ060.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ059-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ064-OKZ065-
     OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-
     OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ019-
     ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KOUN 230919
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
419 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AND WE WILL RETAIN THE
EXISTING HEAT ADVISORY...WHICH CURRENTLY EXPIRES AT 7 PM THIS
EVENING. TOMORROW AND FRIDAY WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
TEMPERATURES...BUT LOWER DEW POINTS...THAN TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL
BE MARGINAL FOR A CONTINUED HEAT ADVISORY TOMORROW...BUT AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES WILL BE WELL WITHIN ADVISORY CRITERIA ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...WE MAY NOT MEET THE 48-HOUR PERSISTENCE CRITERIA ON
FRIDAY IF THURSDAY IS COOLER THAN EXPECTED. WILL DEFER TO LATER
SHIFTS TO DECIDE ON WHETHER AN EXTENSION TO THE HEAT ADVISORY IS
APPROPRIATE.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST INTO OKLAHOMA
TODAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANY
STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SOUTHEAST OF I-44.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE HOT AS SOUTHWEST LOW-
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION...IN ADVANCE OF A
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST.

A STRONGER FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING A
BREAK FROM THE HEAT...AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT A FAIRLY HIGH CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL ARRIVE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THAT IS
BEYOND THE RANGE OF THIS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  95  72  96  76 /  10  10   0   0
HOBART OK         99  72 100  74 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  74 100  76 /  10  10   0   0
GAGE OK           98  70 100  76 /  10  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     94  72  92  77 /  10  10   0   0
DURANT OK         96  73 100  74 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ006>008-011>031-
     033>042-044>047-050-051.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

30/23



000
FXUS64 KOUN 230919
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
419 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AND WE WILL RETAIN THE
EXISTING HEAT ADVISORY...WHICH CURRENTLY EXPIRES AT 7 PM THIS
EVENING. TOMORROW AND FRIDAY WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
TEMPERATURES...BUT LOWER DEW POINTS...THAN TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL
BE MARGINAL FOR A CONTINUED HEAT ADVISORY TOMORROW...BUT AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES WILL BE WELL WITHIN ADVISORY CRITERIA ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...WE MAY NOT MEET THE 48-HOUR PERSISTENCE CRITERIA ON
FRIDAY IF THURSDAY IS COOLER THAN EXPECTED. WILL DEFER TO LATER
SHIFTS TO DECIDE ON WHETHER AN EXTENSION TO THE HEAT ADVISORY IS
APPROPRIATE.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST INTO OKLAHOMA
TODAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANY
STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SOUTHEAST OF I-44.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE HOT AS SOUTHWEST LOW-
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION...IN ADVANCE OF A
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST.

A STRONGER FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING A
BREAK FROM THE HEAT...AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT A FAIRLY HIGH CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL ARRIVE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THAT IS
BEYOND THE RANGE OF THIS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  95  72  96  76 /  10  10   0   0
HOBART OK         99  72 100  74 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  74 100  76 /  10  10   0   0
GAGE OK           98  70 100  76 /  10  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     94  72  92  77 /  10  10   0   0
DURANT OK         96  73 100  74 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ006>008-011>031-
     033>042-044>047-050-051.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

30/23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 230846
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
346 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER COLORADO THIS MORNING...WITH
DISTURBANCES TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS SLIDING
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KS/MO AS OF 08Z. SHORT TERM HI RES MODELS WERE
FORECASTING TSTORM DVLPMT UP IN THE MO OZARKS AND TRACKING IT
SWWRD INTO NW AR/NE OK. SO FAR THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED...AND THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE LOCAL WRF MODEL HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE IDEA AS
WELL. WHAT IS MOST LIKELY IS ISOLD TO SCT AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT DROPS SOUTH INTO OUR AREA LATER TODAY...WITH
THE BEST COVERAGE OVER IN NW/W CNTRL AR AND E CNTRL/SE OK. THERE
IS AN ELEVATED THREAT OF DMGG WINDS AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CORES AS THEY PLUNGE SWWRD IN THE NERLY
FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION ARE VERY
SAUNA-LIKE THIS MORNING...IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND THEY ARE NOT
FORECAST TO DROP NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER. THUS...WITH
CONVECTION MOST LIKELY HOLDING OFF TILL LATER IN THE DAY...HEAT
INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE DANGEROUS 105 TO 110 RANGE FROM THE
LOWER ARK RIVER VALLEY INTO EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OK. THE
HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE EXPANDED SOME WHERE CRITERIA IS FORECAST TO
BE MET. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING THIS EVENING...WHILE SHIFTING SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST OK WITH
THE FRONT. A SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF
BREAK FROM THE HEAT THURSDAY.

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND BACK OVER OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THIS TIME A BIT FLATTER IN ORIENTATION THAN
BEFORE...ALLOWING FOR MORE DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE ROCKPILE. THIS
SHOWS UP AS A MORE INTENSE 850MB THERMAL RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO
EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS A
RESULT...IT APPEARS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COME VERY CLOSE TO...IF
NOT TOUCH...THE CENTURY MARK THIS GO AROUND ACROSS NE OK...AND
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR DAYS NOW...THE RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE
WEST WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS WILL GAIN A SIGNIFICANT
NORTHERLY COMPONENT...AND A PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL FORCE A DECENT COLD FRONT SOUTH THRU THE
PLAINS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STORMS WITH THE FRONT...BUT THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE BIG
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. HIGHS WILL DROP TO BELOW AVERAGE BACK INTO
THE 80S TO START THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   96  71  93  75 /  20  10   0   0
FSM   95  72  91  70 /  40  10  10   0
MLC   95  72  94  73 /  30  20  10   0
BVO   95  69  92  71 /  10  10   0   0
FYV   92  67  87  66 /  30  10   0   0
BYV   91  66  85  64 /  30  10   0   0
MKO   95  71  93  72 /  30  10   0   0
MIO   93  68  90  70 /  20  10   0   0
F10   95  72  93  74 /  20  10   0   0
HHW   94  73  95  73 /  20  20  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ060.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ059-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ064-OKZ065-
     OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-
     OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ019-
     ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

LONG TERM....30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 230846
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
346 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER COLORADO THIS MORNING...WITH
DISTURBANCES TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS SLIDING
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KS/MO AS OF 08Z. SHORT TERM HI RES MODELS WERE
FORECASTING TSTORM DVLPMT UP IN THE MO OZARKS AND TRACKING IT
SWWRD INTO NW AR/NE OK. SO FAR THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED...AND THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE LOCAL WRF MODEL HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE IDEA AS
WELL. WHAT IS MOST LIKELY IS ISOLD TO SCT AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT DROPS SOUTH INTO OUR AREA LATER TODAY...WITH
THE BEST COVERAGE OVER IN NW/W CNTRL AR AND E CNTRL/SE OK. THERE
IS AN ELEVATED THREAT OF DMGG WINDS AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CORES AS THEY PLUNGE SWWRD IN THE NERLY
FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION ARE VERY
SAUNA-LIKE THIS MORNING...IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND THEY ARE NOT
FORECAST TO DROP NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER. THUS...WITH
CONVECTION MOST LIKELY HOLDING OFF TILL LATER IN THE DAY...HEAT
INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE DANGEROUS 105 TO 110 RANGE FROM THE
LOWER ARK RIVER VALLEY INTO EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OK. THE
HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE EXPANDED SOME WHERE CRITERIA IS FORECAST TO
BE MET. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING THIS EVENING...WHILE SHIFTING SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST OK WITH
THE FRONT. A SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF
BREAK FROM THE HEAT THURSDAY.

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND BACK OVER OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THIS TIME A BIT FLATTER IN ORIENTATION THAN
BEFORE...ALLOWING FOR MORE DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE ROCKPILE. THIS
SHOWS UP AS A MORE INTENSE 850MB THERMAL RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO
EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS A
RESULT...IT APPEARS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COME VERY CLOSE TO...IF
NOT TOUCH...THE CENTURY MARK THIS GO AROUND ACROSS NE OK...AND
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR DAYS NOW...THE RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE
WEST WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS WILL GAIN A SIGNIFICANT
NORTHERLY COMPONENT...AND A PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL FORCE A DECENT COLD FRONT SOUTH THRU THE
PLAINS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STORMS WITH THE FRONT...BUT THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE BIG
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. HIGHS WILL DROP TO BELOW AVERAGE BACK INTO
THE 80S TO START THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   96  71  93  75 /  20  10   0   0
FSM   95  72  91  70 /  40  10  10   0
MLC   95  72  94  73 /  30  20  10   0
BVO   95  69  92  71 /  10  10   0   0
FYV   92  67  87  66 /  30  10   0   0
BYV   91  66  85  64 /  30  10   0   0
MKO   95  71  93  72 /  30  10   0   0
MIO   93  68  90  70 /  20  10   0   0
F10   95  72  93  74 /  20  10   0   0
HHW   94  73  95  73 /  20  20  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ060.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ059-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ064-OKZ065-
     OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-
     OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ019-
     ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

LONG TERM....30






000
FXUS64 KTSA 230440
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1140 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE POSSIBLY LATER
TONIGHT AND/OR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SETTLES INTO THE REGION. PATCHY
LIGHT FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY STRONGER CONVECTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 921 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S REMAINED COMMON ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. HEAT INDICES HAVE
ALSO COME DOWN SOME WITH VALUES IN THE RANGE FORM THE MID 80S TO
MID 90S STILL BEING REPORTED OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. TO THE NORTH
OF THE CWA...A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINED POSITIONED ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATEST RUNS OF THE LOCAL IN-HOUSE MODEL AS
WELL AS THE HRRR TRY TO DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND PUSH THEM INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT. THE HRRR RUNS SAYS THAT
THERE SHOULD ALREADY BE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS...THROUGH LOOKING AT LATEST SATELLITE DATA...THERE SEEMS BE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. THE CAP OVER THE REGION LOOKS TO
BE NOT QUITE AS STRONG COMPARED TO OVER KANSAS THIS EVENING AND
THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE CWA. THUS...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
POP OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE
TONIGHT. THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO BE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS
THE FRONT ENTERS THE CWA AND INTERACTS WITH DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY. EVENING UPDATE WILL BE TO TWEAK POPS/WX A BIT
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL.

EVEN WITH THE WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT HEAT HEADLINES AS IS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  98  72  94 /  10  30  10   0
FSM   73  96  72  93 /  20  50  20  10
MLC   71  95  72  96 /  10  20  20  10
BVO   71  95  68  94 /  10  30  10   0
FYV   68  90  67  88 /  20  50  20  10
BYV   69  90  65  86 /  20  50  10  10
MKO   72  96  71  94 /  20  30  10  10
MIO   72  92  68  91 /  20  50  10  10
F10   73  96  72  94 /  10  20  10  10
HHW   71  95  74  96 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ060.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ059-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-
     OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ074.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 230440
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1140 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE POSSIBLY LATER
TONIGHT AND/OR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SETTLES INTO THE REGION. PATCHY
LIGHT FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY STRONGER CONVECTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 921 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S REMAINED COMMON ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. HEAT INDICES HAVE
ALSO COME DOWN SOME WITH VALUES IN THE RANGE FORM THE MID 80S TO
MID 90S STILL BEING REPORTED OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. TO THE NORTH
OF THE CWA...A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINED POSITIONED ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATEST RUNS OF THE LOCAL IN-HOUSE MODEL AS
WELL AS THE HRRR TRY TO DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND PUSH THEM INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT. THE HRRR RUNS SAYS THAT
THERE SHOULD ALREADY BE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS...THROUGH LOOKING AT LATEST SATELLITE DATA...THERE SEEMS BE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. THE CAP OVER THE REGION LOOKS TO
BE NOT QUITE AS STRONG COMPARED TO OVER KANSAS THIS EVENING AND
THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE CWA. THUS...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
POP OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE
TONIGHT. THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO BE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS
THE FRONT ENTERS THE CWA AND INTERACTS WITH DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY. EVENING UPDATE WILL BE TO TWEAK POPS/WX A BIT
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL.

EVEN WITH THE WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT HEAT HEADLINES AS IS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  98  72  94 /  10  30  10   0
FSM   73  96  72  93 /  20  50  20  10
MLC   71  95  72  96 /  10  20  20  10
BVO   71  95  68  94 /  10  30  10   0
FYV   68  90  67  88 /  20  50  20  10
BYV   69  90  65  86 /  20  50  10  10
MKO   72  96  71  94 /  20  30  10  10
MIO   72  92  68  91 /  20  50  10  10
F10   73  96  72  94 /  10  20  10  10
HHW   71  95  74  96 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ060.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ059-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-
     OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ074.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07





000
FXUS64 KOUN 230430
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1130 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS... RAIN CHANCES TO MOSTLY REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY AFFECT
KPNC/KOKC/KOUN. HOWEVER... CHANCES TOO LOW TO PUT IN ANY TAF AT
THIS TIME. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT TAF
PERIOD WITH A WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

UPDATE...
MINIMAL CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST PACKAGE. TWEAKED OVERNIGHT LOWS
UP A FEW DEGREES AT A FEW LOCATIONS GIVEN MESONET/METAR TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  96  73  95 /   0  10  10   0
HOBART OK         73 100  74  98 /   0   0  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  98  76  98 /   0  10  10  10
GAGE OK           68  98  70  98 /   0   0  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     75  93  71  92 /   0  20  10   0
DURANT OK         75  97  76  98 /   0  20  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ006>008-011>031-
     033>042-044>047-050-051.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

11/25/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 230430
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1130 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS... RAIN CHANCES TO MOSTLY REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY AFFECT
KPNC/KOKC/KOUN. HOWEVER... CHANCES TOO LOW TO PUT IN ANY TAF AT
THIS TIME. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT TAF
PERIOD WITH A WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

UPDATE...
MINIMAL CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST PACKAGE. TWEAKED OVERNIGHT LOWS
UP A FEW DEGREES AT A FEW LOCATIONS GIVEN MESONET/METAR TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  96  73  95 /   0  10  10   0
HOBART OK         73 100  74  98 /   0   0  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  98  76  98 /   0  10  10  10
GAGE OK           68  98  70  98 /   0   0  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     75  93  71  92 /   0  20  10   0
DURANT OK         75  97  76  98 /   0  20  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ006>008-011>031-
     033>042-044>047-050-051.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

11/25/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 230231
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
931 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
MINIMAL CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST PACKAGE. TWEAKED OVERNIGHT LOWS
UP A FEW DEGREES AT A FEW LOCATIONS GIVEN MESONET/METAR TRENDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  96  73  95 /   0  10  10   0
HOBART OK         73 100  74  98 /   0   0  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  98  76  98 /   0  10  10  10
GAGE OK           68  98  70  98 /   0   0  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     75  93  71  92 /   0  20  10   0
DURANT OK         75  97  76  98 /   0  20  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ006>008-011>031-
     033>042-044>047-050-051.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

11/25



000
FXUS64 KTSA 230221
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
921 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S REMAINED COMMON ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. HEAT INDICES HAVE
ALSO COME DOWN SOME WITH VALUES IN THE RANGE FORM THE MID 80S TO
MID 90S STILL BEING REPORTED OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. TO THE NORTH
OF THE CWA...A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINED POSITIONED ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATEST RUNS OF THE LOCAL IN-HOUSE MODEL AS
WELL AS THE HRRR TRY TO DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND PUSH THEM INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT. THE HRRR RUNS SAYS THAT
THERE SHOULD ALREADY BE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS...THROUGH LOOKING AT LATEST SATELLITE DATA...THERE SEEMS BE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. THE CAP OVER THE REGION LOOKS TO
BE NOT QUITE AS STRONG COMPARED TO OVER KANSAS THIS EVENING AND
THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE CWA. THUS...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
POP OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE
TONIGHT. THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO BE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS
THE FRONT ENTERS THE CWA AND INTERACTS WITH DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY. EVENING UPDATE WILL BE TO TWEAK POPS/WX A BIT
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL.

EVEN WITH THE WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT HEAT HEADLINES AS IS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  98  72  94 /  10  30  10   0
FSM   73  96  72  93 /  20  50  20  10
MLC   71  95  72  96 /  10  20  20  10
BVO   71  95  68  94 /  10  30  10   0
FYV   68  90  67  88 /  20  50  20  10
BYV   69  90  65  86 /  20  50  10  10
MKO   72  96  71  94 /  20  30  10  10
MIO   72  92  68  91 /  20  50  10  10
F10   73  96  72  94 /  10  20  10  10
HHW   71  95  74  96 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ060.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ059-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-
     OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ074.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
AVIATION.....07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 222329
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
629 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONGOING VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...AND HAS A CHANCE OF BUILDING WESTWARD INTO
WESTERN AR LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THE AGGRESSIVE WESTWARD
DEVELOPMENT SHOWN BY SOME SHORT TERM MODELS IS DEEMED AN OUTLIER
SOLUTION AT THIS POINT. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. OUTSIDE OF STRONGER CONVECTION CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL STATES THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAILING. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 105 DEGREES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF NE
OKLAHOMA AND HEAT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 01Z. SOME SHORT
RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR
FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS MISSOURI THIS EVENING WITH
NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND UPPER RIDGE ALLOWING SOME TO MOVE TOWARD NW
ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LATE
TONIGHT AS A RESULT.

EAST-WEST ORIENTED 850MB THERMAL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING EVEN HOTTER TEMPERATURES TO MANY
AREAS. HOWEVER... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING SOME RELIEF TO NORTHEASTERN
AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY POINTS SOUTH AND WEST. STILL
THINK A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN ORDER FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ALONG WITH CONTINUED HEAT WARNING FOR TULSA METRO
AS TEMPS AHEAD OF STORMS/FRONT WILL REACH NEAR 100. FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN A MODEST COOL DOWN FOR THURSDAY.

HEAT WILL CRANK BACK UP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO
THE WEST AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH TEMPS IN SOME AREAS AGAIN NEAR THE CENTURY MARK. BY SUNDAY
HOWEVER A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO SHAPE UP AND BRING A MUCH STRONGER FRONT INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY AND A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  98  72  94 /  10  30  10   0
FSM   73  96  72  93 /  10  50  20  10
MLC   71  95  72  96 /  10  20  20  10
BVO   71  95  68  94 /  10  30  10   0
FYV   68  90  67  88 /  20  50  20  10
BYV   69  90  65  86 /  20  50  10  10
MKO   72  96  71  94 /  10  30  10  10
MIO   72  92  68  91 /  20  50  10  10
F10   73  96  72  94 /  10  20  10  10
HHW   71  95  74  96 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ060.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-
     OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ059-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-
     OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ074.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 222329
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
629 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONGOING VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...AND HAS A CHANCE OF BUILDING WESTWARD INTO
WESTERN AR LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THE AGGRESSIVE WESTWARD
DEVELOPMENT SHOWN BY SOME SHORT TERM MODELS IS DEEMED AN OUTLIER
SOLUTION AT THIS POINT. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. OUTSIDE OF STRONGER CONVECTION CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL STATES THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAILING. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 105 DEGREES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF NE
OKLAHOMA AND HEAT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 01Z. SOME SHORT
RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR
FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS MISSOURI THIS EVENING WITH
NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND UPPER RIDGE ALLOWING SOME TO MOVE TOWARD NW
ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LATE
TONIGHT AS A RESULT.

EAST-WEST ORIENTED 850MB THERMAL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING EVEN HOTTER TEMPERATURES TO MANY
AREAS. HOWEVER... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING SOME RELIEF TO NORTHEASTERN
AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY POINTS SOUTH AND WEST. STILL
THINK A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN ORDER FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ALONG WITH CONTINUED HEAT WARNING FOR TULSA METRO
AS TEMPS AHEAD OF STORMS/FRONT WILL REACH NEAR 100. FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN A MODEST COOL DOWN FOR THURSDAY.

HEAT WILL CRANK BACK UP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO
THE WEST AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH TEMPS IN SOME AREAS AGAIN NEAR THE CENTURY MARK. BY SUNDAY
HOWEVER A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO SHAPE UP AND BRING A MUCH STRONGER FRONT INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY AND A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  98  72  94 /  10  30  10   0
FSM   73  96  72  93 /  10  50  20  10
MLC   71  95  72  96 /  10  20  20  10
BVO   71  95  68  94 /  10  30  10   0
FYV   68  90  67  88 /  20  50  20  10
BYV   69  90  65  86 /  20  50  10  10
MKO   72  96  71  94 /  10  30  10  10
MIO   72  92  68  91 /  20  50  10  10
F10   73  96  72  94 /  10  20  10  10
HHW   71  95  74  96 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ060.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-
     OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ059-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-
     OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ074.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07





000
FXUS64 KOUN 222309
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
609 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND LOW
VFR CLOUDS WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY AFFECT
KPNC/KOKC/KOUN. HOWEVER... CHANCES TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN ANY TAF
AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGE FROM THE MID 90S IN SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA TO NEAR 105 IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON
HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 105 WEDNESDAY...WILL KEEP
HEAT ADVISORY IN PLACE.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN RESULT WILL BE
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WITH SLIM CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS EASTERN
PARTS OF THE FA.

AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL
KEEP THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MAINLY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. A
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON
SUNDAY AND WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES EAST. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A
COLD FRONT INTO OKLAHOMA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  96  73  95 /   0  10  10   0
HOBART OK         74 100  74  98 /   0   0  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  98  76  98 /   0  10  10  10
GAGE OK           68  98  70  98 /   0   0  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     77  93  71  92 /   0  20  10   0
DURANT OK         75  97  76  98 /   0  20  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ006>008-011>031-
     033>042-044>047-050-051.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

11/25/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 222309
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
609 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND LOW
VFR CLOUDS WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY AFFECT
KPNC/KOKC/KOUN. HOWEVER... CHANCES TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN ANY TAF
AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGE FROM THE MID 90S IN SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA TO NEAR 105 IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON
HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 105 WEDNESDAY...WILL KEEP
HEAT ADVISORY IN PLACE.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN RESULT WILL BE
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WITH SLIM CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS EASTERN
PARTS OF THE FA.

AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL
KEEP THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MAINLY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. A
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON
SUNDAY AND WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES EAST. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A
COLD FRONT INTO OKLAHOMA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  96  73  95 /   0  10  10   0
HOBART OK         74 100  74  98 /   0   0  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  98  76  98 /   0  10  10  10
GAGE OK           68  98  70  98 /   0   0  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     77  93  71  92 /   0  20  10   0
DURANT OK         75  97  76  98 /   0  20  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ006>008-011>031-
     033>042-044>047-050-051.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

11/25/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 222041
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
341 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGE FROM THE MID 90S IN SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA TO NEAR 105 IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON
HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 105 WEDNESDAY...WILL KEEP
HEAT ADVISORY IN PLACE.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN RESULT WILL BE
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WITH SLIM CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS EASTERN
PARTS OF THE FA.

AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL
KEEP THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MAINLY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. A
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON
SUNDAY AND WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES EAST. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A
COLD FRONT INTO OKLAHOMA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  96  73  95 /   0  10  10   0
HOBART OK         74 100  74  98 /   0   0  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  98  76  98 /   0  10  10  10
GAGE OK           68  98  70  98 /   0   0  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     77  93  71  92 /   0  20  10   0
DURANT OK         75  97  76  98 /   0  20  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ006>008-011>031-
     033>042-044>047-050-051.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 222041
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
341 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGE FROM THE MID 90S IN SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA TO NEAR 105 IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON
HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 105 WEDNESDAY...WILL KEEP
HEAT ADVISORY IN PLACE.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN RESULT WILL BE
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WITH SLIM CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS EASTERN
PARTS OF THE FA.

AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL
KEEP THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MAINLY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. A
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON
SUNDAY AND WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES EAST. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A
COLD FRONT INTO OKLAHOMA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  96  73  95 /   0  10  10   0
HOBART OK         74 100  74  98 /   0   0  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  98  76  98 /   0  10  10  10
GAGE OK           68  98  70  98 /   0   0  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     77  93  71  92 /   0  20  10   0
DURANT OK         75  97  76  98 /   0  20  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ006>008-011>031-
     033>042-044>047-050-051.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 222040
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
340 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL STATES THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAILING. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 105 DEGREES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF NE
OKLAHOMA AND HEAT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 01Z. SOME SHORT
RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR
FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS MISSOURI THIS EVENING WITH
NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND UPPER RIDGE ALLOWING SOME TO MOVE TOWARD NW
ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LATE
TONIGHT AS A RESULT.

EAST-WEST ORIENTED 850MB THERMAL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING EVEN HOTTER TEMPERATURES TO MANY
AREAS. HOWEVER... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING SOME RELIEF TO NORTHEASTERN
AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY POINTS SOUTH AND WEST. STILL
THINK A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN ORDER FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ALONG WITH CONTINUED HEAT WARNING FOR TULSA METRO
AS TEMPS AHEAD OF STORMS/FRONT WILL REACH NEAR 100. FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN A MODEST COOL DOWN FOR THURSDAY.

HEAT WILL CRANK BACK UP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO
THE WEST AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH TEMPS IN SOME AREAS AGAIN NEAR THE CENTURY MARK. BY SUNDAY
HOWEVER A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO SHAPE UP AND BRING A MUCH STRONGER FRONT INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY AND A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  98  72  94 /  10  30  10   0
FSM   73  96  72  93 /  10  50  20  10
MLC   71  95  72  96 /  10  20  20  10
BVO   71  95  68  94 /  10  30  10   0
FYV   68  90  67  88 /  20  50  20  10
BYV   69  90  65  86 /  20  50  10  10
MKO   72  96  71  94 /  10  30  10  10
MIO   72  92  68  91 /  20  50  10  10
F10   73  96  72  94 /  10  20  10  10
HHW   71  95  74  96 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ060.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-
     OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ059-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-
     OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ074.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....14/16










000
FXUS64 KTSA 222040
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
340 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL STATES THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAILING. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 105 DEGREES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF NE
OKLAHOMA AND HEAT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 01Z. SOME SHORT
RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR
FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS MISSOURI THIS EVENING WITH
NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND UPPER RIDGE ALLOWING SOME TO MOVE TOWARD NW
ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LATE
TONIGHT AS A RESULT.

EAST-WEST ORIENTED 850MB THERMAL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING EVEN HOTTER TEMPERATURES TO MANY
AREAS. HOWEVER... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING SOME RELIEF TO NORTHEASTERN
AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY POINTS SOUTH AND WEST. STILL
THINK A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN ORDER FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ALONG WITH CONTINUED HEAT WARNING FOR TULSA METRO
AS TEMPS AHEAD OF STORMS/FRONT WILL REACH NEAR 100. FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN A MODEST COOL DOWN FOR THURSDAY.

HEAT WILL CRANK BACK UP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO
THE WEST AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH TEMPS IN SOME AREAS AGAIN NEAR THE CENTURY MARK. BY SUNDAY
HOWEVER A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO SHAPE UP AND BRING A MUCH STRONGER FRONT INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY AND A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  98  72  94 /  10  30  10   0
FSM   73  96  72  93 /  10  50  20  10
MLC   71  95  72  96 /  10  20  20  10
BVO   71  95  68  94 /  10  30  10   0
FYV   68  90  67  88 /  20  50  20  10
BYV   69  90  65  86 /  20  50  10  10
MKO   72  96  71  94 /  10  30  10  10
MIO   72  92  68  91 /  20  50  10  10
F10   73  96  72  94 /  10  20  10  10
HHW   71  95  74  96 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ060.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-
     OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ059-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-
     OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ074.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....14/16









000
FXUS64 KOUN 221740
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
22/18Z TAFS...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY.  AFTER
12Z...WINDS MAY SHIFT TO A LIGHT NORTHERLY DIRECTION AS A WEAK
FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW...BUT AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS IS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH "NEARBY" STORMS NORTHEAST
AND WEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

AVIATION... 12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER... A FEW SITES MAY FLIRT WITH 5 OR 6SM BR THROUGH SUNRISE.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY... BROAD RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SRN PLAINS THIS MORNING. PER WV IMAGERY THIS AM... THE PRIMARY RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS ELONGATED SW/NE... FROM ERN NM THROUGH THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE LAST EVENING RIDING THE RIDGE
RESULTED IN A NARROW AXIS OF LIFT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES INTO SWRN
KS... SPARKING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SERN KS AND THE
PANHANDLES. THIS ACTIVITY SLOWLY DECREASED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS... WITH ONLY LIGHT RETURNS LEFT ON RADAR ACROSS THE ERN OK PH
THROUGH 07Z. MEANWHILE... SOUTH/ALONG THE ARBUCKLES... AREAS OF
LIGHT FOG HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN A REGION OF LIGHT SFC WINDS. GIVEN
DPTS IN THE 70S... WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED BY PATCHY LIGHT FOG... WITH
LIMITED IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE. OVERALL... JUST A WARM AND
HUMID MORNING.

FOR TODAY... MADE NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY.... WHICH
STARTS AT 17Z/NOON FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SRN OK AND WRN N TX...
CONTINUING THROUGH 00Z/7PM CDT WED. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS THIS AFTN-THU... STILL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S-
100S ACROSS THE REGION. DPTS/HUMIDITY WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR
HEAT INDICES. DPTS IN THE 60S AND 70S WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO 105
AND POTENTIALLY HIGHER THIS AFTN AND TMRW. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW...
BUT THE HEAT ADV WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH FRI. S/SW
FLOW IN THE MID-LVLS PICKS UP THU-FRI... WITH H850 TEMPS ACROSS WRN
OK AND WRN N TX PUSHING 25-29 C BY FRI AFTN. IN RESPONSE... BUMPED
UP HIGHS ACROSS WRN N TX AND WRN OK INTO THE LOW-MID 100S.

KEPT SLGT CHC FOR THUNDER WED-EARLY THU AS A WEAK BOUNDARY SLIDES
S/SE ACROSS ERN OK. KEPT CHCS CONSTRAINED EAST OF I-35... AS THE
CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF
OK. EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER... WITH CHCS SLIDING S/SE
THROUGH WED NIGHT/THU MORNING.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WITH
BROAD H500 RIDGING HOLDING IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS INTO
SUN. AFTER WHICH... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BUILD THE WRN
RIDGE AS A STOUT H500 TROUGH DIGS OUT OF SK/MB INTO THE BOUNDARY
WATERS AND GREAT LAKES. IN RESPONSE... AN ELONGATED BOUNDARY WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE SUN-MON BRINGING ANOTHER CHC FOR
ISOLATED THUNDER. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM... IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COOL
DOWN... WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S BY TUE-WED AS THE PLAINS REMAIN
SANDWICHED BETWEEN WRN RIDGING AND ERN TROUGHING.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  98  73  95 /   0  10  10   0
HOBART OK         74 103  73  99 /   0   0  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75 102  75 100 /   0  10  10  10
GAGE OK           69 100  70  97 /   0   0  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     75  97  72  92 /   0  20  10   0
DURANT OK         75  99  74  96 /   0  20  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ006>008-011>031-
     033>042-044>047-050-051.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 221740
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
22/18Z TAFS...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY.  AFTER
12Z...WINDS MAY SHIFT TO A LIGHT NORTHERLY DIRECTION AS A WEAK
FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW...BUT AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS IS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH "NEARBY" STORMS NORTHEAST
AND WEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

AVIATION... 12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER... A FEW SITES MAY FLIRT WITH 5 OR 6SM BR THROUGH SUNRISE.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY... BROAD RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SRN PLAINS THIS MORNING. PER WV IMAGERY THIS AM... THE PRIMARY RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS ELONGATED SW/NE... FROM ERN NM THROUGH THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE LAST EVENING RIDING THE RIDGE
RESULTED IN A NARROW AXIS OF LIFT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES INTO SWRN
KS... SPARKING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SERN KS AND THE
PANHANDLES. THIS ACTIVITY SLOWLY DECREASED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS... WITH ONLY LIGHT RETURNS LEFT ON RADAR ACROSS THE ERN OK PH
THROUGH 07Z. MEANWHILE... SOUTH/ALONG THE ARBUCKLES... AREAS OF
LIGHT FOG HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN A REGION OF LIGHT SFC WINDS. GIVEN
DPTS IN THE 70S... WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED BY PATCHY LIGHT FOG... WITH
LIMITED IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE. OVERALL... JUST A WARM AND
HUMID MORNING.

FOR TODAY... MADE NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY.... WHICH
STARTS AT 17Z/NOON FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SRN OK AND WRN N TX...
CONTINUING THROUGH 00Z/7PM CDT WED. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS THIS AFTN-THU... STILL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S-
100S ACROSS THE REGION. DPTS/HUMIDITY WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR
HEAT INDICES. DPTS IN THE 60S AND 70S WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO 105
AND POTENTIALLY HIGHER THIS AFTN AND TMRW. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW...
BUT THE HEAT ADV WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH FRI. S/SW
FLOW IN THE MID-LVLS PICKS UP THU-FRI... WITH H850 TEMPS ACROSS WRN
OK AND WRN N TX PUSHING 25-29 C BY FRI AFTN. IN RESPONSE... BUMPED
UP HIGHS ACROSS WRN N TX AND WRN OK INTO THE LOW-MID 100S.

KEPT SLGT CHC FOR THUNDER WED-EARLY THU AS A WEAK BOUNDARY SLIDES
S/SE ACROSS ERN OK. KEPT CHCS CONSTRAINED EAST OF I-35... AS THE
CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF
OK. EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER... WITH CHCS SLIDING S/SE
THROUGH WED NIGHT/THU MORNING.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WITH
BROAD H500 RIDGING HOLDING IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS INTO
SUN. AFTER WHICH... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BUILD THE WRN
RIDGE AS A STOUT H500 TROUGH DIGS OUT OF SK/MB INTO THE BOUNDARY
WATERS AND GREAT LAKES. IN RESPONSE... AN ELONGATED BOUNDARY WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE SUN-MON BRINGING ANOTHER CHC FOR
ISOLATED THUNDER. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM... IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COOL
DOWN... WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S BY TUE-WED AS THE PLAINS REMAIN
SANDWICHED BETWEEN WRN RIDGING AND ERN TROUGHING.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  98  73  95 /   0  10  10   0
HOBART OK         74 103  73  99 /   0   0  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75 102  75 100 /   0  10  10  10
GAGE OK           69 100  70  97 /   0   0  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     75  97  72  92 /   0  20  10   0
DURANT OK         75  99  74  96 /   0  20  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ006>008-011>031-
     033>042-044>047-050-051.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 221740
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
22/18Z TAFS...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY.  AFTER
12Z...WINDS MAY SHIFT TO A LIGHT NORTHERLY DIRECTION AS A WEAK
FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW...BUT AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS IS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH "NEARBY" STORMS NORTHEAST
AND WEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

AVIATION... 12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER... A FEW SITES MAY FLIRT WITH 5 OR 6SM BR THROUGH SUNRISE.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY... BROAD RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SRN PLAINS THIS MORNING. PER WV IMAGERY THIS AM... THE PRIMARY RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS ELONGATED SW/NE... FROM ERN NM THROUGH THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE LAST EVENING RIDING THE RIDGE
RESULTED IN A NARROW AXIS OF LIFT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES INTO SWRN
KS... SPARKING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SERN KS AND THE
PANHANDLES. THIS ACTIVITY SLOWLY DECREASED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS... WITH ONLY LIGHT RETURNS LEFT ON RADAR ACROSS THE ERN OK PH
THROUGH 07Z. MEANWHILE... SOUTH/ALONG THE ARBUCKLES... AREAS OF
LIGHT FOG HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN A REGION OF LIGHT SFC WINDS. GIVEN
DPTS IN THE 70S... WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED BY PATCHY LIGHT FOG... WITH
LIMITED IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE. OVERALL... JUST A WARM AND
HUMID MORNING.

FOR TODAY... MADE NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY.... WHICH
STARTS AT 17Z/NOON FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SRN OK AND WRN N TX...
CONTINUING THROUGH 00Z/7PM CDT WED. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS THIS AFTN-THU... STILL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S-
100S ACROSS THE REGION. DPTS/HUMIDITY WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR
HEAT INDICES. DPTS IN THE 60S AND 70S WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO 105
AND POTENTIALLY HIGHER THIS AFTN AND TMRW. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW...
BUT THE HEAT ADV WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH FRI. S/SW
FLOW IN THE MID-LVLS PICKS UP THU-FRI... WITH H850 TEMPS ACROSS WRN
OK AND WRN N TX PUSHING 25-29 C BY FRI AFTN. IN RESPONSE... BUMPED
UP HIGHS ACROSS WRN N TX AND WRN OK INTO THE LOW-MID 100S.

KEPT SLGT CHC FOR THUNDER WED-EARLY THU AS A WEAK BOUNDARY SLIDES
S/SE ACROSS ERN OK. KEPT CHCS CONSTRAINED EAST OF I-35... AS THE
CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF
OK. EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER... WITH CHCS SLIDING S/SE
THROUGH WED NIGHT/THU MORNING.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WITH
BROAD H500 RIDGING HOLDING IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS INTO
SUN. AFTER WHICH... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BUILD THE WRN
RIDGE AS A STOUT H500 TROUGH DIGS OUT OF SK/MB INTO THE BOUNDARY
WATERS AND GREAT LAKES. IN RESPONSE... AN ELONGATED BOUNDARY WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE SUN-MON BRINGING ANOTHER CHC FOR
ISOLATED THUNDER. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM... IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COOL
DOWN... WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S BY TUE-WED AS THE PLAINS REMAIN
SANDWICHED BETWEEN WRN RIDGING AND ERN TROUGHING.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  98  73  95 /   0  10  10   0
HOBART OK         74 103  73  99 /   0   0  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75 102  75 100 /   0  10  10  10
GAGE OK           69 100  70  97 /   0   0  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     75  97  72  92 /   0  20  10   0
DURANT OK         75  99  74  96 /   0  20  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ006>008-011>031-
     033>042-044>047-050-051.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 221740
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
22/18Z TAFS...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY.  AFTER
12Z...WINDS MAY SHIFT TO A LIGHT NORTHERLY DIRECTION AS A WEAK
FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW...BUT AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS IS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH "NEARBY" STORMS NORTHEAST
AND WEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

AVIATION... 12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER... A FEW SITES MAY FLIRT WITH 5 OR 6SM BR THROUGH SUNRISE.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY... BROAD RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SRN PLAINS THIS MORNING. PER WV IMAGERY THIS AM... THE PRIMARY RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS ELONGATED SW/NE... FROM ERN NM THROUGH THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE LAST EVENING RIDING THE RIDGE
RESULTED IN A NARROW AXIS OF LIFT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES INTO SWRN
KS... SPARKING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SERN KS AND THE
PANHANDLES. THIS ACTIVITY SLOWLY DECREASED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS... WITH ONLY LIGHT RETURNS LEFT ON RADAR ACROSS THE ERN OK PH
THROUGH 07Z. MEANWHILE... SOUTH/ALONG THE ARBUCKLES... AREAS OF
LIGHT FOG HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN A REGION OF LIGHT SFC WINDS. GIVEN
DPTS IN THE 70S... WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED BY PATCHY LIGHT FOG... WITH
LIMITED IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE. OVERALL... JUST A WARM AND
HUMID MORNING.

FOR TODAY... MADE NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY.... WHICH
STARTS AT 17Z/NOON FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SRN OK AND WRN N TX...
CONTINUING THROUGH 00Z/7PM CDT WED. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS THIS AFTN-THU... STILL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S-
100S ACROSS THE REGION. DPTS/HUMIDITY WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR
HEAT INDICES. DPTS IN THE 60S AND 70S WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO 105
AND POTENTIALLY HIGHER THIS AFTN AND TMRW. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW...
BUT THE HEAT ADV WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH FRI. S/SW
FLOW IN THE MID-LVLS PICKS UP THU-FRI... WITH H850 TEMPS ACROSS WRN
OK AND WRN N TX PUSHING 25-29 C BY FRI AFTN. IN RESPONSE... BUMPED
UP HIGHS ACROSS WRN N TX AND WRN OK INTO THE LOW-MID 100S.

KEPT SLGT CHC FOR THUNDER WED-EARLY THU AS A WEAK BOUNDARY SLIDES
S/SE ACROSS ERN OK. KEPT CHCS CONSTRAINED EAST OF I-35... AS THE
CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF
OK. EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER... WITH CHCS SLIDING S/SE
THROUGH WED NIGHT/THU MORNING.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WITH
BROAD H500 RIDGING HOLDING IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS INTO
SUN. AFTER WHICH... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BUILD THE WRN
RIDGE AS A STOUT H500 TROUGH DIGS OUT OF SK/MB INTO THE BOUNDARY
WATERS AND GREAT LAKES. IN RESPONSE... AN ELONGATED BOUNDARY WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE SUN-MON BRINGING ANOTHER CHC FOR
ISOLATED THUNDER. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM... IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COOL
DOWN... WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S BY TUE-WED AS THE PLAINS REMAIN
SANDWICHED BETWEEN WRN RIDGING AND ERN TROUGHING.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  98  73  95 /   0  10  10   0
HOBART OK         74 103  73  99 /   0   0  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75 102  75 100 /   0  10  10  10
GAGE OK           69 100  70  97 /   0   0  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     75  97  72  92 /   0  20  10   0
DURANT OK         75  99  74  96 /   0  20  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ006>008-011>031-
     033>042-044>047-050-051.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KTSA 221653
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1153 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MVFR VSBYS IN THUNDER CHANCES FOR LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE
HANDLED WITH PROB GROUPS THIS ISSUANCE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST TRACKING NICELY TOWARDS ADVERTISED AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS. THE WARM START WAS FAVORED BY HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS...BUT
THOSE CONTINUE TO THIN WITH TIME...THUS CURRENT SKY CONDITION WILL
WORK. CURRENT HEAT HEADLINES LOOK GOOD...AND WILL BE LEFT AS IS.
BRIEF COOLDOWN EXPECTED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THAT WILL MAKE ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA TOMORROW. NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ060.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-
     OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KTSA 221653
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1153 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MVFR VSBYS IN THUNDER CHANCES FOR LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE
HANDLED WITH PROB GROUPS THIS ISSUANCE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST TRACKING NICELY TOWARDS ADVERTISED AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS. THE WARM START WAS FAVORED BY HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS...BUT
THOSE CONTINUE TO THIN WITH TIME...THUS CURRENT SKY CONDITION WILL
WORK. CURRENT HEAT HEADLINES LOOK GOOD...AND WILL BE LEFT AS IS.
BRIEF COOLDOWN EXPECTED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THAT WILL MAKE ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA TOMORROW. NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ060.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-
     OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 221520
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1020 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST TRACKING NICELY TOWARDS ADVERTISED AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS. THE WARM START WAS FAVORED BY HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS...BUT
THOSE CONTINUE TO THIN WITH TIME...THUS CURRENT SKY CONDITION WILL
WORK. CURRENT HEAT HEADLINES LOOK GOOD...AND WILL BE LEFT AS IS.
BRIEF COOLDOWN EXPECTED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THAT WILL MAKE ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA TOMORROW. NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.



&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ060.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-
     OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....14





000
FXUS64 KTSA 221520
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1020 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST TRACKING NICELY TOWARDS ADVERTISED AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS. THE WARM START WAS FAVORED BY HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS...BUT
THOSE CONTINUE TO THIN WITH TIME...THUS CURRENT SKY CONDITION WILL
WORK. CURRENT HEAT HEADLINES LOOK GOOD...AND WILL BE LEFT AS IS.
BRIEF COOLDOWN EXPECTED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THAT WILL MAKE ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA TOMORROW. NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.



&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ060.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-
     OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....14






000
FXUS64 KOUN 221140
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
640 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION... 12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER... A FEW SITES MAY FLIRT WITH 5 OR 6SM BR THROUGH SUNRISE.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY... BROAD RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SRN PLAINS THIS MORNING. PER WV IMAGERY THIS AM... THE PRIMARY RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS ELONGATED SW/NE... FROM ERN NM THROUGH THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE LAST EVENING RIDING THE RIDGE
RESULTED IN A NARROW AXIS OF LIFT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES INTO SWRN
KS... SPARKING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SERN KS AND THE
PANHANDLES. THIS ACTIVITY SLOWLY DECREASED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS... WITH ONLY LIGHT RETURNS LEFT ON RADAR ACROSS THE ERN OK PH
THROUGH 07Z. MEANWHILE... SOUTH/ALONG THE ARBUCKLES... AREAS OF
LIGHT FOG HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN A REGION OF LIGHT SFC WINDS. GIVEN
DPTS IN THE 70S... WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED BY PATCHY LIGHT FOG... WITH
LIMITED IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE. OVERALL... JUST A WARM AND
HUMID MORNING.

FOR TODAY... MADE NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY.... WHICH
STARTS AT 17Z/NOON FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SRN OK AND WRN N TX...
CONTINUING THROUGH 00Z/7PM CDT WED. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS THIS AFTN-THU... STILL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S-
100S ACROSS THE REGION. DPTS/HUMIDITY WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR
HEAT INDICES. DPTS IN THE 60S AND 70S WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO 105
AND POTENTIALLY HIGHER THIS AFTN AND TMRW. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW...
BUT THE HEAT ADV WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH FRI. S/SW
FLOW IN THE MID-LVLS PICKS UP THU-FRI... WITH H850 TEMPS ACROSS WRN
OK AND WRN N TX PUSHING 25-29 C BY FRI AFTN. IN RESPONSE... BUMPED
UP HIGHS ACROSS WRN N TX AND WRN OK INTO THE LOW-MID 100S.

KEPT SLGT CHC FOR THUNDER WED-EARLY THU AS A WEAK BOUNDARY SLIDES
S/SE ACROSS ERN OK. KEPT CHCS CONSTRAINED EAST OF I-35... AS THE
CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF
OK. EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER... WITH CHCS SLIDING S/SE
THROUGH WED NIGHT/THU MORNING.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WITH
BROAD H500 RIDGING HOLDING IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS INTO
SUN. AFTER WHICH... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BUILD THE WRN
RIDGE AS A STOUT H500 TROUGH DIGS OUT OF SK/MB INTO THE BOUNDARY
WATERS AND GREAT LAKES. IN RESPONSE... AN ELONGATED BOUNDARY WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE SUN-MON BRINGING ANOTHER CHC FOR
ISOLATED THUNDER. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM... IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COOL
DOWN... WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S BY TUE-WED AS THE PLAINS REMAIN
SANDWICHED BETWEEN WRN RIDGING AND ERN TROUGHING.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  98  74  98  73 /   0   0  10  10
HOBART OK        100  74 103  73 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX 100  75 102  75 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK          101  69 100  70 /   0   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     98  75  97  72 /   0   0  20  10
DURANT OK         99  75  99  74 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     OKZ006>008-011>031-033>042-044>047-050-051.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

30/04/04



000
FXUS64 KOUN 221140
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
640 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION... 12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER... A FEW SITES MAY FLIRT WITH 5 OR 6SM BR THROUGH SUNRISE.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY... BROAD RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SRN PLAINS THIS MORNING. PER WV IMAGERY THIS AM... THE PRIMARY RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS ELONGATED SW/NE... FROM ERN NM THROUGH THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE LAST EVENING RIDING THE RIDGE
RESULTED IN A NARROW AXIS OF LIFT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES INTO SWRN
KS... SPARKING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SERN KS AND THE
PANHANDLES. THIS ACTIVITY SLOWLY DECREASED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS... WITH ONLY LIGHT RETURNS LEFT ON RADAR ACROSS THE ERN OK PH
THROUGH 07Z. MEANWHILE... SOUTH/ALONG THE ARBUCKLES... AREAS OF
LIGHT FOG HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN A REGION OF LIGHT SFC WINDS. GIVEN
DPTS IN THE 70S... WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED BY PATCHY LIGHT FOG... WITH
LIMITED IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE. OVERALL... JUST A WARM AND
HUMID MORNING.

FOR TODAY... MADE NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY.... WHICH
STARTS AT 17Z/NOON FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SRN OK AND WRN N TX...
CONTINUING THROUGH 00Z/7PM CDT WED. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS THIS AFTN-THU... STILL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S-
100S ACROSS THE REGION. DPTS/HUMIDITY WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR
HEAT INDICES. DPTS IN THE 60S AND 70S WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO 105
AND POTENTIALLY HIGHER THIS AFTN AND TMRW. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW...
BUT THE HEAT ADV WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH FRI. S/SW
FLOW IN THE MID-LVLS PICKS UP THU-FRI... WITH H850 TEMPS ACROSS WRN
OK AND WRN N TX PUSHING 25-29 C BY FRI AFTN. IN RESPONSE... BUMPED
UP HIGHS ACROSS WRN N TX AND WRN OK INTO THE LOW-MID 100S.

KEPT SLGT CHC FOR THUNDER WED-EARLY THU AS A WEAK BOUNDARY SLIDES
S/SE ACROSS ERN OK. KEPT CHCS CONSTRAINED EAST OF I-35... AS THE
CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF
OK. EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER... WITH CHCS SLIDING S/SE
THROUGH WED NIGHT/THU MORNING.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WITH
BROAD H500 RIDGING HOLDING IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS INTO
SUN. AFTER WHICH... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BUILD THE WRN
RIDGE AS A STOUT H500 TROUGH DIGS OUT OF SK/MB INTO THE BOUNDARY
WATERS AND GREAT LAKES. IN RESPONSE... AN ELONGATED BOUNDARY WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE SUN-MON BRINGING ANOTHER CHC FOR
ISOLATED THUNDER. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM... IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COOL
DOWN... WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S BY TUE-WED AS THE PLAINS REMAIN
SANDWICHED BETWEEN WRN RIDGING AND ERN TROUGHING.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  98  74  98  73 /   0   0  10  10
HOBART OK        100  74 103  73 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX 100  75 102  75 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK          101  69 100  70 /   0   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     98  75  97  72 /   0   0  20  10
DURANT OK         99  75  99  74 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     OKZ006>008-011>031-033>042-044>047-050-051.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

30/04/04




000
FXUS64 KTSA 221102
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
602 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY FOG MAY TEMPORARILY DROP
VISIBILITIES INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT
THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY. THE MAIN CHALLENGE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN THE HIGH
TEMP FORECAST. THE LATEST DATA SUGGESTS VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
850MB THERMAL FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE STILL LYING TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST OVER KANSAS. THE MAIN CHANGE TODAY APPEARS TO BE THE SURFACE
WIND DIRECTION. A MORE SWRLY DIRECTION IS FORECAST...WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST WARMER TEMPERATURES IN GENERAL. NONETHELESS...GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED LOWER...AND DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN HIGH...THUS HIGHS HAVE
BEEN LOWERED AS WELL. THIS ADJUSTMENT ALSO NECESSITATES A SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT TO THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY.

THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED 850MB THERMAL RIDGE SETTLES SOUTH DOWN INTO
OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF THE TAIL END OF A COOL FRONT.
HIGHS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY GET CLOSE
TO THE CENTURY MARK. THE LATEST DATA SUGGESTS STORMS WILL FORM
ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE KS/MO BORDERS AND MOVE SOUTHWEST INTO
OUR AREA AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NERLY ON THE EASTERN
FRINGES OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE. THE BEST COVERAGE STILL APPEARS TO
BE FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. A SMALL CHANCE OF
STORMS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY DOWN IN THE SOUTH AND EAST AS THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH.

THE HEAT WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY ON INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK
BOUNDARY MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE KS/MO BORDERS TO WARRANT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AND DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR
     OKZ060.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 8 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 221102
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
602 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY FOG MAY TEMPORARILY DROP
VISIBILITIES INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT
THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY. THE MAIN CHALLENGE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN THE HIGH
TEMP FORECAST. THE LATEST DATA SUGGESTS VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
850MB THERMAL FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE STILL LYING TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST OVER KANSAS. THE MAIN CHANGE TODAY APPEARS TO BE THE SURFACE
WIND DIRECTION. A MORE SWRLY DIRECTION IS FORECAST...WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST WARMER TEMPERATURES IN GENERAL. NONETHELESS...GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED LOWER...AND DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN HIGH...THUS HIGHS HAVE
BEEN LOWERED AS WELL. THIS ADJUSTMENT ALSO NECESSITATES A SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT TO THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY.

THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED 850MB THERMAL RIDGE SETTLES SOUTH DOWN INTO
OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF THE TAIL END OF A COOL FRONT.
HIGHS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY GET CLOSE
TO THE CENTURY MARK. THE LATEST DATA SUGGESTS STORMS WILL FORM
ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE KS/MO BORDERS AND MOVE SOUTHWEST INTO
OUR AREA AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NERLY ON THE EASTERN
FRINGES OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE. THE BEST COVERAGE STILL APPEARS TO
BE FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. A SMALL CHANCE OF
STORMS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY DOWN IN THE SOUTH AND EAST AS THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH.

THE HEAT WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY ON INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK
BOUNDARY MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE KS/MO BORDERS TO WARRANT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AND DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR
     OKZ060.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 8 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KOUN 220823
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
323 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY... BROAD RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SRN PLAINS THIS MORNING. PER WV IMAGERY THIS AM... THE PRIMARY RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS ELONGATED SW/NE... FROM ERN NM THROUGH THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE LAST EVENING RIDING THE RIDGE
RESULTED IN A NARROW AXIS OF LIFT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES INTO SWRN
KS... SPARKING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SERN KS AND THE
PANHANDLES. THIS ACTIVITY SLOWLY DECREASED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS... WITH ONLY LIGHT RETURNS LEFT ON RADAR ACROSS THE ERN OK PH
THROUGH 07Z. MEANWHILE... SOUTH/ALONG THE ARBUCKLES... AREAS OF
LIGHT FOG HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN A REGION OF LIGHT SFC WINDS. GIVEN
DPTS IN THE 70S... WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED BY PATCHY LIGHT FOG... WITH
LIMITED IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE. OVERALL... JUST A WARM AND
HUMID MORNING.

FOR TODAY... MADE NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY.... WHICH
STARTS AT 17Z/NOON FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SRN OK AND WRN N TX...
CONTINUING THROUGH 00Z/7PM CDT WED. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS THIS AFTN-THU... STILL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S-
100S ACROSS THE REGION. DPTS/HUMIDITY WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR
HEAT INDICES. DPTS IN THE 60S AND 70S WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO 105
AND POTENTIALLY HIGHER THIS AFTN AND TMRW. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW...
BUT THE HEAT ADV WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH FRI. S/SW
FLOW IN THE MID-LVLS PICKS UP THU-FRI... WITH H850 TEMPS ACROSS WRN
OK AND WRN N TX PUSHING 25-29 C BY FRI AFTN. IN RESPONSE... BUMPED
UP HIGHS ACROSS WRN N TX AND WRN OK INTO THE LOW-MID 100S.

KEPT SLGT CHC FOR THUNDER WED-EARLY THU AS A WEAK BOUNDARY SLIDES
S/SE ACROSS ERN OK. KEPT CHCS CONSTRAINED EAST OF I-35... AS THE
CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF
OK. EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER... WITH CHCS SLIDING S/SE
THROUGH WED NIGHT/THU MORNING.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WITH
BROAD H500 RIDGING HOLDING IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS INTO
SUN. AFTER WHICH... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BUILD THE WRN
RIDGE AS A STOUT H500 TROUGH DIGS OUT OF SK/MB INTO THE BOUNDARY
WATERS AND GREAT LAKES. IN RESPONSE... AN ELONGATED BOUNDARY WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE SUN-MON BRINGING ANOTHER CHC FOR
ISOLATED THUNDER. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM... IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COOL
DOWN... WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S BY TUE-WED AS THE PLAINS REMAIN
SANDWICHED BETWEEN WRN RIDGING AND ERN TROUGHING.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  98  74  98  73 /   0   0  10  10
HOBART OK        100  74 103  73 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX 100  75 102  75 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK          101  69 100  70 /   0   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     98  75  97  72 /   0   0  20  10
DURANT OK         99  75  99  74 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     OKZ006>008-011>031-033>042-044>047-050-051.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

30/04



000
FXUS64 KOUN 220823
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
323 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY... BROAD RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SRN PLAINS THIS MORNING. PER WV IMAGERY THIS AM... THE PRIMARY RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS ELONGATED SW/NE... FROM ERN NM THROUGH THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE LAST EVENING RIDING THE RIDGE
RESULTED IN A NARROW AXIS OF LIFT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES INTO SWRN
KS... SPARKING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SERN KS AND THE
PANHANDLES. THIS ACTIVITY SLOWLY DECREASED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS... WITH ONLY LIGHT RETURNS LEFT ON RADAR ACROSS THE ERN OK PH
THROUGH 07Z. MEANWHILE... SOUTH/ALONG THE ARBUCKLES... AREAS OF
LIGHT FOG HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN A REGION OF LIGHT SFC WINDS. GIVEN
DPTS IN THE 70S... WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED BY PATCHY LIGHT FOG... WITH
LIMITED IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE. OVERALL... JUST A WARM AND
HUMID MORNING.

FOR TODAY... MADE NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY.... WHICH
STARTS AT 17Z/NOON FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SRN OK AND WRN N TX...
CONTINUING THROUGH 00Z/7PM CDT WED. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS THIS AFTN-THU... STILL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S-
100S ACROSS THE REGION. DPTS/HUMIDITY WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR
HEAT INDICES. DPTS IN THE 60S AND 70S WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO 105
AND POTENTIALLY HIGHER THIS AFTN AND TMRW. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW...
BUT THE HEAT ADV WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH FRI. S/SW
FLOW IN THE MID-LVLS PICKS UP THU-FRI... WITH H850 TEMPS ACROSS WRN
OK AND WRN N TX PUSHING 25-29 C BY FRI AFTN. IN RESPONSE... BUMPED
UP HIGHS ACROSS WRN N TX AND WRN OK INTO THE LOW-MID 100S.

KEPT SLGT CHC FOR THUNDER WED-EARLY THU AS A WEAK BOUNDARY SLIDES
S/SE ACROSS ERN OK. KEPT CHCS CONSTRAINED EAST OF I-35... AS THE
CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF
OK. EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER... WITH CHCS SLIDING S/SE
THROUGH WED NIGHT/THU MORNING.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WITH
BROAD H500 RIDGING HOLDING IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS INTO
SUN. AFTER WHICH... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BUILD THE WRN
RIDGE AS A STOUT H500 TROUGH DIGS OUT OF SK/MB INTO THE BOUNDARY
WATERS AND GREAT LAKES. IN RESPONSE... AN ELONGATED BOUNDARY WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE SUN-MON BRINGING ANOTHER CHC FOR
ISOLATED THUNDER. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM... IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COOL
DOWN... WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S BY TUE-WED AS THE PLAINS REMAIN
SANDWICHED BETWEEN WRN RIDGING AND ERN TROUGHING.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  98  74  98  73 /   0   0  10  10
HOBART OK        100  74 103  73 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX 100  75 102  75 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK          101  69 100  70 /   0   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     98  75  97  72 /   0   0  20  10
DURANT OK         99  75  99  74 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     OKZ006>008-011>031-033>042-044>047-050-051.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

30/04




000
FXUS64 KTSA 220814
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
314 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY. THE MAIN CHALLENGE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN THE HIGH
TEMP FORECAST. THE LATEST DATA SUGGESTS VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
850MB THERMAL FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE STILL LYING TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST OVER KANSAS. THE MAIN CHANGE TODAY APPEARS TO BE THE SURFACE
WIND DIRECTION. A MORE SWRLY DIRECTION IS FORECAST...WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST WARMER TEMPERATURES IN GENERAL. NONETHELESS...GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED LOWER...AND DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN HIGH...THUS HIGHS HAVE
BEEN LOWERED AS WELL. THIS ADJUSTMENT ALSO NECESSITATES A SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT TO THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY.

THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED 850MB THERMAL RIDGE SETTLES SOUTH DOWN INTO
OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF THE TAIL END OF A COOL FRONT.
HIGHS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY GET CLOSE
TO THE CENTURY MARK. THE LATEST DATA SUGGESTS STORMS WILL FORM
ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE KS/MO BORDERS AND MOVE SOUTHWEST INTO
OUR AREA AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NERLY ON THE EASTERN
FRINGES OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE. THE BEST COVERAGE STILL APPEARS TO
BE FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. A SMALL CHANCE OF
STORMS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY DOWN IN THE SOUTH AND EAST AS THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH.

THE HEAT WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY ON INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK
BOUNDARY MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE KS/MO BORDERS TO WARRANT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AND DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  76  98  73 /   0  10  30  10
FSM   94  73  96  71 /   0  10  50  30
MLC   93  73  95  71 /   0  10  20  20
BVO   97  71  98  68 /   0  10  30  10
FYV   92  70  91  66 /   0  10  50  30
BYV   91  70  91  65 /   0  10  50  20
MKO   95  73  96  71 /   0  10  30  20
MIO   95  75  95  69 /   0  10  50  10
F10   94  74  96  72 /   0  10  20  20
HHW   93  73  95  72 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR
     OKZ060.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 8 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 220814
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
314 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY. THE MAIN CHALLENGE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN THE HIGH
TEMP FORECAST. THE LATEST DATA SUGGESTS VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
850MB THERMAL FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE STILL LYING TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST OVER KANSAS. THE MAIN CHANGE TODAY APPEARS TO BE THE SURFACE
WIND DIRECTION. A MORE SWRLY DIRECTION IS FORECAST...WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST WARMER TEMPERATURES IN GENERAL. NONETHELESS...GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED LOWER...AND DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN HIGH...THUS HIGHS HAVE
BEEN LOWERED AS WELL. THIS ADJUSTMENT ALSO NECESSITATES A SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT TO THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY.

THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED 850MB THERMAL RIDGE SETTLES SOUTH DOWN INTO
OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF THE TAIL END OF A COOL FRONT.
HIGHS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY GET CLOSE
TO THE CENTURY MARK. THE LATEST DATA SUGGESTS STORMS WILL FORM
ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE KS/MO BORDERS AND MOVE SOUTHWEST INTO
OUR AREA AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NERLY ON THE EASTERN
FRINGES OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE. THE BEST COVERAGE STILL APPEARS TO
BE FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. A SMALL CHANCE OF
STORMS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY DOWN IN THE SOUTH AND EAST AS THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH.

THE HEAT WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY ON INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK
BOUNDARY MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE KS/MO BORDERS TO WARRANT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AND DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  76  98  73 /   0  10  30  10
FSM   94  73  96  71 /   0  10  50  30
MLC   93  73  95  71 /   0  10  20  20
BVO   97  71  98  68 /   0  10  30  10
FYV   92  70  91  66 /   0  10  50  30
BYV   91  70  91  65 /   0  10  50  20
MKO   95  73  96  71 /   0  10  30  20
MIO   95  75  95  69 /   0  10  50  10
F10   94  74  96  72 /   0  10  20  20
HHW   93  73  95  72 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR
     OKZ060.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 8 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30






000
FXUS64 KOUN 220443
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1143 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA INTO TUESDAY MORNING. STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES ARE NECESSARY TO THE HEAT ADVISORY SINCE THE NEXT TWO
DAYS STILL APPEAR TO HAVE THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES OF THE
YEAR SO FAR. IN THE NEAR-TERM MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
RECONGINZE HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE THAN HAD BEEN
FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         72 100  74 103 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75 100  75 102 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK           71 101  69 100 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     74  98  75  97 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         72  99  75  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     OKZ006>008-011>031-033>042-044>047-050-051.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

09/25/25



000
FXUS64 KTSA 220410
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1110 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY PREVAIL W/ PATCHY AND LIGHT OVERNIGHT
FOG THE ONLY EXCEPTION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MINIMAL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST ONLY TO KEEP
GRIDS CURRENT.
GW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL W/ THE EXCEPTION OF LIGHT
FOG TONIGHT ACROSS FAR NW AR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

DANGEROUS HEAT IN THE PROCESS OF RETURNING TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS. DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S HAVE STEADILY RETURNED
TO MUCH OF OKLAHOMA TO THE WEST OF HIGHWAY 69...AFTER STARTING THE
DAY WITH VALUES IN THE MID 60S. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
INDICES...INCLUDING A FEW SPOTS FLIRTING WITH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...ARE SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO THE
WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ONLY WORSEN TOMORROW
AND WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER
90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THIS HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS
NOT ATYPICAL FOR LATE JULY...IT COULD BE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS
GIVEN THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE
HIGH TEMPERATURES SEEN ACROSS THE AREA JUST A FEW DAYS AGO.
CERTAINLY A DRASTIC CHANGE IN CONDITIONS.

HEAT INDICES ARE MOST LIKELY TO REACH 105 /ADVISORY CRITERIA/ TO
THE NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM MIAMI TO MUSKOGEE TO OKEMAH
TOMORROW...WITH A MUCH LARGER PART OF THE REGION SEEING HEAT
INDICES THAT HIGH FOR WEDNESDAY. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND ALSO UPGRADE THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE HEAT
WATCH FOR TULSA COUNTY TO A WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH OTHER PARTS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING AREAS NEAR GROVE...TAHLEQUAH...AND
MCALESTER...FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THIS ADVISORY TOMORROW...AS
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS VERY NEAR CRITERIA. AN ADDITIONAL HEAT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
NEAR NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN AREA WIDE
THURSDAY...BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS THE HEAT COMES BACK FOR
THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT
LEAST SATURDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETREAT WESTWARD LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...ALLOWING NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...AND ALSO BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  99  77  99 /   0   0   0  20
FSM   71  96  73  97 /   0   0  10  50
MLC   69  96  73  98 /   0   0  10  20
BVO   70  99  71  96 /   0   0   0  20
FYV   64  93  69  93 /   0   0  10  50
BYV   67  93  70  92 /   0   0  10  50
MKO   71  97  72  98 /   0   0  10  30
MIO   71  97  74  94 /   0   0  10  40
F10   71  97  73  98 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   69  95  71  97 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR
     OKZ060.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 8 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ070-OKZ071.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 220410
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1110 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY PREVAIL W/ PATCHY AND LIGHT OVERNIGHT
FOG THE ONLY EXCEPTION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MINIMAL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST ONLY TO KEEP
GRIDS CURRENT.
GW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL W/ THE EXCEPTION OF LIGHT
FOG TONIGHT ACROSS FAR NW AR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

DANGEROUS HEAT IN THE PROCESS OF RETURNING TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS. DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S HAVE STEADILY RETURNED
TO MUCH OF OKLAHOMA TO THE WEST OF HIGHWAY 69...AFTER STARTING THE
DAY WITH VALUES IN THE MID 60S. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
INDICES...INCLUDING A FEW SPOTS FLIRTING WITH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...ARE SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO THE
WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ONLY WORSEN TOMORROW
AND WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER
90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THIS HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS
NOT ATYPICAL FOR LATE JULY...IT COULD BE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS
GIVEN THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE
HIGH TEMPERATURES SEEN ACROSS THE AREA JUST A FEW DAYS AGO.
CERTAINLY A DRASTIC CHANGE IN CONDITIONS.

HEAT INDICES ARE MOST LIKELY TO REACH 105 /ADVISORY CRITERIA/ TO
THE NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM MIAMI TO MUSKOGEE TO OKEMAH
TOMORROW...WITH A MUCH LARGER PART OF THE REGION SEEING HEAT
INDICES THAT HIGH FOR WEDNESDAY. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND ALSO UPGRADE THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE HEAT
WATCH FOR TULSA COUNTY TO A WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH OTHER PARTS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING AREAS NEAR GROVE...TAHLEQUAH...AND
MCALESTER...FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THIS ADVISORY TOMORROW...AS
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS VERY NEAR CRITERIA. AN ADDITIONAL HEAT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
NEAR NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN AREA WIDE
THURSDAY...BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS THE HEAT COMES BACK FOR
THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT
LEAST SATURDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETREAT WESTWARD LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...ALLOWING NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...AND ALSO BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  99  77  99 /   0   0   0  20
FSM   71  96  73  97 /   0   0  10  50
MLC   69  96  73  98 /   0   0  10  20
BVO   70  99  71  96 /   0   0   0  20
FYV   64  93  69  93 /   0   0  10  50
BYV   67  93  70  92 /   0   0  10  50
MKO   71  97  72  98 /   0   0  10  30
MIO   71  97  74  94 /   0   0  10  40
F10   71  97  73  98 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   69  95  71  97 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR
     OKZ060.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 8 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ070-OKZ071.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07





000
FXUS64 KTSA 220242
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
942 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MINIMAL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST ONLY TO KEEP
GRIDS CURRENT.
GW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL W/ THE EXCEPTION OF LIGHT
FOG TONIGHT ACROSS FAR NW AR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

DANGEROUS HEAT IN THE PROCESS OF RETURNING TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS. DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S HAVE STEADILY RETURNED
TO MUCH OF OKLAHOMA TO THE WEST OF HIGHWAY 69...AFTER STARTING THE
DAY WITH VALUES IN THE MID 60S. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
INDICES...INCLUDING A FEW SPOTS FLIRTING WITH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...ARE SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO THE
WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ONLY WORSEN TOMORROW
AND WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER
90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THIS HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS
NOT ATYPICAL FOR LATE JULY...IT COULD BE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS
GIVEN THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE
HIGH TEMPERATURES SEEN ACROSS THE AREA JUST A FEW DAYS AGO.
CERTAINLY A DRASTIC CHANGE IN CONDITIONS.

HEAT INDICES ARE MOST LIKELY TO REACH 105 /ADVISORY CRITERIA/ TO
THE NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM MIAMI TO MUSKOGEE TO OKEMAH
TOMORROW...WITH A MUCH LARGER PART OF THE REGION SEEING HEAT
INDICES THAT HIGH FOR WEDNESDAY. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND ALSO UPGRADE THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE HEAT
WATCH FOR TULSA COUNTY TO A WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH OTHER PARTS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING AREAS NEAR GROVE...TAHLEQUAH...AND
MCALESTER...FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THIS ADVISORY TOMORROW...AS
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS VERY NEAR CRITERIA. AN ADDITIONAL HEAT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
NEAR NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN AREA WIDE
THURSDAY...BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS THE HEAT COMES BACK FOR
THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT
LEAST SATURDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETREAT WESTWARD LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...ALLOWING NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...AND ALSO BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  99  77  99 /   0   0   0  20
FSM   71  96  73  97 /   0   0  10  50
MLC   69  96  73  98 /   0   0  10  20
BVO   70  99  71  96 /   0   0   0  20
FYV   64  93  69  93 /   0   0  10  50
BYV   67  93  70  92 /   0   0  10  50
MKO   71  97  72  98 /   0   0  10  30
MIO   71  97  74  94 /   0   0  10  40
F10   71  97  73  98 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   69  95  71  97 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR
     OKZ060.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 8 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ070-OKZ071.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21





000
FXUS64 KTSA 220242
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
942 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MINIMAL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST ONLY TO KEEP
GRIDS CURRENT.
GW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL W/ THE EXCEPTION OF LIGHT
FOG TONIGHT ACROSS FAR NW AR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

DANGEROUS HEAT IN THE PROCESS OF RETURNING TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS. DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S HAVE STEADILY RETURNED
TO MUCH OF OKLAHOMA TO THE WEST OF HIGHWAY 69...AFTER STARTING THE
DAY WITH VALUES IN THE MID 60S. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
INDICES...INCLUDING A FEW SPOTS FLIRTING WITH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...ARE SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO THE
WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ONLY WORSEN TOMORROW
AND WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER
90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THIS HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS
NOT ATYPICAL FOR LATE JULY...IT COULD BE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS
GIVEN THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE
HIGH TEMPERATURES SEEN ACROSS THE AREA JUST A FEW DAYS AGO.
CERTAINLY A DRASTIC CHANGE IN CONDITIONS.

HEAT INDICES ARE MOST LIKELY TO REACH 105 /ADVISORY CRITERIA/ TO
THE NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM MIAMI TO MUSKOGEE TO OKEMAH
TOMORROW...WITH A MUCH LARGER PART OF THE REGION SEEING HEAT
INDICES THAT HIGH FOR WEDNESDAY. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND ALSO UPGRADE THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE HEAT
WATCH FOR TULSA COUNTY TO A WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH OTHER PARTS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING AREAS NEAR GROVE...TAHLEQUAH...AND
MCALESTER...FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THIS ADVISORY TOMORROW...AS
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS VERY NEAR CRITERIA. AN ADDITIONAL HEAT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
NEAR NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN AREA WIDE
THURSDAY...BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS THE HEAT COMES BACK FOR
THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT
LEAST SATURDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETREAT WESTWARD LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...ALLOWING NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...AND ALSO BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  99  77  99 /   0   0   0  20
FSM   71  96  73  97 /   0   0  10  50
MLC   69  96  73  98 /   0   0  10  20
BVO   70  99  71  96 /   0   0   0  20
FYV   64  93  69  93 /   0   0  10  50
BYV   67  93  70  92 /   0   0  10  50
MKO   71  97  72  98 /   0   0  10  30
MIO   71  97  74  94 /   0   0  10  40
F10   71  97  73  98 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   69  95  71  97 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR
     OKZ060.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 8 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ070-OKZ071.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21






000
FXUS64 KOUN 220228
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
928 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES ARE NECESSARY TO THE HEAT ADVISORY SINCE THE NEXT TWO
DAYS STILL APPEAR TO HAVE THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES OF THE
YEAR SO FAR. IN THE NEAR-TERM MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
RECONGINZE HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE THAN HAD BEEN
FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         72 100  74 103 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75 100  75 102 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK           71 101  69 100 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     74  98  75  97 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         72  99  75  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     OKZ006>008-011>031-033>042-044>047-050-051.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

09/26



000
FXUS64 KOUN 220228
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
928 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES ARE NECESSARY TO THE HEAT ADVISORY SINCE THE NEXT TWO
DAYS STILL APPEAR TO HAVE THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES OF THE
YEAR SO FAR. IN THE NEAR-TERM MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
RECONGINZE HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE THAN HAD BEEN
FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         72 100  74 103 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75 100  75 102 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK           71 101  69 100 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     74  98  75  97 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         72  99  75  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     OKZ006>008-011>031-033>042-044>047-050-051.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

09/26



000
FXUS64 KOUN 220228
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
928 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES ARE NECESSARY TO THE HEAT ADVISORY SINCE THE NEXT TWO
DAYS STILL APPEAR TO HAVE THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES OF THE
YEAR SO FAR. IN THE NEAR-TERM MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
RECONGINZE HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE THAN HAD BEEN
FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         72 100  74 103 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75 100  75 102 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK           71 101  69 100 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     74  98  75  97 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         72  99  75  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     OKZ006>008-011>031-033>042-044>047-050-051.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

09/26



000
FXUS64 KOUN 220228
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
928 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES ARE NECESSARY TO THE HEAT ADVISORY SINCE THE NEXT TWO
DAYS STILL APPEAR TO HAVE THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES OF THE
YEAR SO FAR. IN THE NEAR-TERM MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
RECONGINZE HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE THAN HAD BEEN
FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         72 100  74 103 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75 100  75 102 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK           71 101  69 100 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     74  98  75  97 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         72  99  75  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     OKZ006>008-011>031-033>042-044>047-050-051.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

09/26



000
FXUS64 KTSA 212320
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
620 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL W/ THE EXCEPTION OF LIGHT
FOG TONIGHT ACROSS FAR NW AR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

DANGEROUS HEAT IN THE PROCESS OF RETURNING TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS. DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S HAVE STEADILY RETURNED
TO MUCH OF OKLAHOMA TO THE WEST OF HIGHWAY 69...AFTER STARTING THE
DAY WITH VALUES IN THE MID 60S. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
INDICES...INCLUDING A FEW SPOTS FLIRTING WITH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...ARE SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO THE
WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ONLY WORSEN TOMORROW
AND WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER
90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THIS HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS
NOT ATYPICAL FOR LATE JULY...IT COULD BE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS
GIVEN THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE
HIGH TEMPERATURES SEEN ACROSS THE AREA JUST A FEW DAYS AGO.
CERTAINLY A DRASTIC CHANGE IN CONDITIONS.

HEAT INDICES ARE MOST LIKELY TO REACH 105 /ADVISORY CRITERIA/ TO
THE NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM MIAMI TO MUSKOGEE TO OKEMAH
TOMORROW...WITH A MUCH LARGER PART OF THE REGION SEEING HEAT
INDICES THAT HIGH FOR WEDNESDAY. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND ALSO UPGRADE THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE HEAT
WATCH FOR TULSA COUNTY TO A WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH OTHER PARTS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING AREAS NEAR GROVE...TAHLEQUAH...AND
MCALESTER...FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THIS ADVISORY TOMORROW...AS
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS VERY NEAR CRITERIA. AN ADDITIONAL HEAT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
NEAR NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN AREAWIDE
THURSDAY...BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS THE HEAT COMES BACK FOR
THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT
LEAST SATURDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETREAT WESTWARD LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...ALLOWING NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...AND ALSO BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  99  77  99 /   0   0   0  20
FSM   69  96  73  97 /   0   0  10  50
MLC   68  96  73  98 /   0   0  10  20
BVO   68  99  71  96 /   0   0   0  20
FYV   63  93  69  93 /   0   0  10  50
BYV   65  93  70  92 /   0   0  10  50
MKO   69  97  72  98 /   0   0  10  30
MIO   70  97  74  94 /   0   0  10  40
F10   70  97  73  98 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   68  95  71  97 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR
     OKZ060.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 8 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ070-OKZ071.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07





000
FXUS64 KTSA 212320
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
620 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL W/ THE EXCEPTION OF LIGHT
FOG TONIGHT ACROSS FAR NW AR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

DANGEROUS HEAT IN THE PROCESS OF RETURNING TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS. DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S HAVE STEADILY RETURNED
TO MUCH OF OKLAHOMA TO THE WEST OF HIGHWAY 69...AFTER STARTING THE
DAY WITH VALUES IN THE MID 60S. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
INDICES...INCLUDING A FEW SPOTS FLIRTING WITH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...ARE SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO THE
WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ONLY WORSEN TOMORROW
AND WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER
90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THIS HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS
NOT ATYPICAL FOR LATE JULY...IT COULD BE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS
GIVEN THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE
HIGH TEMPERATURES SEEN ACROSS THE AREA JUST A FEW DAYS AGO.
CERTAINLY A DRASTIC CHANGE IN CONDITIONS.

HEAT INDICES ARE MOST LIKELY TO REACH 105 /ADVISORY CRITERIA/ TO
THE NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM MIAMI TO MUSKOGEE TO OKEMAH
TOMORROW...WITH A MUCH LARGER PART OF THE REGION SEEING HEAT
INDICES THAT HIGH FOR WEDNESDAY. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND ALSO UPGRADE THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE HEAT
WATCH FOR TULSA COUNTY TO A WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH OTHER PARTS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING AREAS NEAR GROVE...TAHLEQUAH...AND
MCALESTER...FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THIS ADVISORY TOMORROW...AS
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS VERY NEAR CRITERIA. AN ADDITIONAL HEAT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
NEAR NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN AREAWIDE
THURSDAY...BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS THE HEAT COMES BACK FOR
THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT
LEAST SATURDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETREAT WESTWARD LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...ALLOWING NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...AND ALSO BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  99  77  99 /   0   0   0  20
FSM   69  96  73  97 /   0   0  10  50
MLC   68  96  73  98 /   0   0  10  20
BVO   68  99  71  96 /   0   0   0  20
FYV   63  93  69  93 /   0   0  10  50
BYV   65  93  70  92 /   0   0  10  50
MKO   69  97  72  98 /   0   0  10  30
MIO   70  97  74  94 /   0   0  10  40
F10   70  97  73  98 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   68  95  71  97 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR
     OKZ060.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 8 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ070-OKZ071.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07






000
FXUS64 KOUN 212311
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
611 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. SOME PATCHY
FOG CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AROUND SUNRISE BUT CHANCES ARE
LOW ENOUGH TO NOT PUT IN TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWING A COOL...WET PERIOD LAST WEEK...THE COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 105 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR A LARGE PART OF THE FA FROM NOON TUESDAY-EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER ALABAMA WILL TRACK SLOWLY WEST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS...MAY KEEP HUMIDIITY LEVELS SLIGHTLY LOWER OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.

OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL MAINLY BE INFLUENCED BY AN
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO/COLORADO. A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH NORTHEAST/NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. A FEW STORMS MAY FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SHOULD
MAINLY INFLUENCE NORTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

A STRONGER SYSTEM MAY PUSH ANOTHER FRONT INTO OKLAHOMA OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR
LATE JULY. WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         72 100  74 103 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75 100  75 102 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK           71 101  69 100 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     74  98  75  97 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         72  99  75  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     OKZ006>008-011>031-033>042-044>047-050-051.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

09/25/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 212311
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
611 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. SOME PATCHY
FOG CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AROUND SUNRISE BUT CHANCES ARE
LOW ENOUGH TO NOT PUT IN TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWING A COOL...WET PERIOD LAST WEEK...THE COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 105 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR A LARGE PART OF THE FA FROM NOON TUESDAY-EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER ALABAMA WILL TRACK SLOWLY WEST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS...MAY KEEP HUMIDIITY LEVELS SLIGHTLY LOWER OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.

OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL MAINLY BE INFLUENCED BY AN
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO/COLORADO. A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH NORTHEAST/NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. A FEW STORMS MAY FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SHOULD
MAINLY INFLUENCE NORTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

A STRONGER SYSTEM MAY PUSH ANOTHER FRONT INTO OKLAHOMA OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR
LATE JULY. WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         72 100  74 103 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75 100  75 102 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK           71 101  69 100 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     74  98  75  97 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         72  99  75  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     OKZ006>008-011>031-033>042-044>047-050-051.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

09/25/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 212311
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
611 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. SOME PATCHY
FOG CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AROUND SUNRISE BUT CHANCES ARE
LOW ENOUGH TO NOT PUT IN TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWING A COOL...WET PERIOD LAST WEEK...THE COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 105 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR A LARGE PART OF THE FA FROM NOON TUESDAY-EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER ALABAMA WILL TRACK SLOWLY WEST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS...MAY KEEP HUMIDIITY LEVELS SLIGHTLY LOWER OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.

OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL MAINLY BE INFLUENCED BY AN
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO/COLORADO. A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH NORTHEAST/NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. A FEW STORMS MAY FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SHOULD
MAINLY INFLUENCE NORTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

A STRONGER SYSTEM MAY PUSH ANOTHER FRONT INTO OKLAHOMA OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR
LATE JULY. WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         72 100  74 103 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75 100  75 102 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK           71 101  69 100 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     74  98  75  97 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         72  99  75  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     OKZ006>008-011>031-033>042-044>047-050-051.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

09/25/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 212311
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
611 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. SOME PATCHY
FOG CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AROUND SUNRISE BUT CHANCES ARE
LOW ENOUGH TO NOT PUT IN TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWING A COOL...WET PERIOD LAST WEEK...THE COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 105 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR A LARGE PART OF THE FA FROM NOON TUESDAY-EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER ALABAMA WILL TRACK SLOWLY WEST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS...MAY KEEP HUMIDIITY LEVELS SLIGHTLY LOWER OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.

OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL MAINLY BE INFLUENCED BY AN
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO/COLORADO. A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH NORTHEAST/NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. A FEW STORMS MAY FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SHOULD
MAINLY INFLUENCE NORTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

A STRONGER SYSTEM MAY PUSH ANOTHER FRONT INTO OKLAHOMA OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR
LATE JULY. WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         72 100  74 103 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75 100  75 102 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK           71 101  69 100 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     74  98  75  97 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         72  99  75  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     OKZ006>008-011>031-033>042-044>047-050-051.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

09/25/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 212034
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
334 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWING A COOL...WET PERIOD LAST WEEK...THE COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 105 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR A LARGE PART OF THE FA FROM NOON TUESDAY-EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER ALABAMA WILL TRACK SLOWLY WEST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS...MAY KEEP HUMIDIITY LEVELS SLIGHTLY LOWER OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.

OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL MAINLY BE INFLUENCED BY AN
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO/COLORADO. A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH NORTHEAST/NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. A FEW STORMS MAY FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SHOULD
MAINLY INFLUENCE NORTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

A STRONGER SYSTEM MAY PUSH ANOTHER FRONT INTO OKLAHOMA OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR
LATE JULY. WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         72 100  74 103 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75 100  75 102 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK           71 101  69 100 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     74  98  75  97 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         72  99  75  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     OKZ006>008-011>031-033>042-044>047-050-051.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 212034
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
334 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWING A COOL...WET PERIOD LAST WEEK...THE COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 105 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR A LARGE PART OF THE FA FROM NOON TUESDAY-EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER ALABAMA WILL TRACK SLOWLY WEST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS...MAY KEEP HUMIDIITY LEVELS SLIGHTLY LOWER OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.

OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL MAINLY BE INFLUENCED BY AN
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO/COLORADO. A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH NORTHEAST/NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. A FEW STORMS MAY FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SHOULD
MAINLY INFLUENCE NORTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

A STRONGER SYSTEM MAY PUSH ANOTHER FRONT INTO OKLAHOMA OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR
LATE JULY. WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         72 100  74 103 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75 100  75 102 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK           71 101  69 100 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     74  98  75  97 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         72  99  75  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     OKZ006>008-011>031-033>042-044>047-050-051.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 212034
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
334 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWING A COOL...WET PERIOD LAST WEEK...THE COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 105 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR A LARGE PART OF THE FA FROM NOON TUESDAY-EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER ALABAMA WILL TRACK SLOWLY WEST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS...MAY KEEP HUMIDIITY LEVELS SLIGHTLY LOWER OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.

OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL MAINLY BE INFLUENCED BY AN
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO/COLORADO. A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH NORTHEAST/NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. A FEW STORMS MAY FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SHOULD
MAINLY INFLUENCE NORTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

A STRONGER SYSTEM MAY PUSH ANOTHER FRONT INTO OKLAHOMA OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR
LATE JULY. WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         72 100  74 103 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75 100  75 102 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK           71 101  69 100 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     74  98  75  97 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         72  99  75  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     OKZ006>008-011>031-033>042-044>047-050-051.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 212034
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
334 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWING A COOL...WET PERIOD LAST WEEK...THE COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 105 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR A LARGE PART OF THE FA FROM NOON TUESDAY-EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER ALABAMA WILL TRACK SLOWLY WEST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS...MAY KEEP HUMIDIITY LEVELS SLIGHTLY LOWER OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.

OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL MAINLY BE INFLUENCED BY AN
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO/COLORADO. A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH NORTHEAST/NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. A FEW STORMS MAY FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SHOULD
MAINLY INFLUENCE NORTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

A STRONGER SYSTEM MAY PUSH ANOTHER FRONT INTO OKLAHOMA OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR
LATE JULY. WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         72 100  74 103 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75 100  75 102 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK           71 101  69 100 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     74  98  75  97 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         72  99  75  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     OKZ006>008-011>031-033>042-044>047-050-051.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KTSA 211952
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
252 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

DANGEROUS HEAT IN THE PROCESS OF RETURNING TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS. DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S HAVE STEADILY RETURNED
TO MUCH OF OKLAHOMA TO THE WEST OF HIGHWAY 69...AFTER STARTING THE
DAY WITH VALUES IN THE MID 60S. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
INDICES...INCLUDING A FEW SPOTS FLIRTING WITH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...ARE SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO THE
WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ONLY WORSEN TOMORROW
AND WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER
90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THIS HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS
NOT ATYPICAL FOR LATE JULY...IT COULD BE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS
GIVEN THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE
HIGH TEMPERATURES SEEN ACROSS THE AREA JUST A FEW DAYS AGO.
CERTAINLY A DRASTIC CHANGE IN CONDITIONS.

HEAT INDICES ARE MOST LIKELY TO REACH 105 /ADVISORY CRITERIA/ TO
THE NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM MIAMI TO MUSKOGEE TO OKEMAH
TOMORROW...WITH A MUCH LARGER PART OF THE REGION SEEING HEAT
INDICES THAT HIGH FOR WEDNESDAY. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND ALSO UPGRADE THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE HEAT
WATCH FOR TULSA COUNTY TO A WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH OTHER PARTS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING AREAS NEAR GROVE...TAHLEQUAH...AND
MCALESTER...FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THIS ADVISORY TOMORROW...AS
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS VERY NEAR CRITERIA. AN ADDITIONAL HEAT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
NEAR NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN AREAWIDE
THURSDAY...BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS THE HEAT COMES BACK FOR
THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT
LEAST SATURDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETREAT WESTWARD LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...ALLOWING NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...AND ALSO BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  99  77  99 /   0   0   0  20
FSM   69  96  73  97 /   0   0  10  50
MLC   68  96  73  98 /   0   0  10  20
BVO   68  99  71  96 /   0   0   0  20
FYV   63  93  69  93 /   0   0  10  50
BYV   65  93  70  92 /   0   0  10  50
MKO   69  97  72  98 /   0   0  10  30
MIO   70  97  74  94 /   0   0  10  40
F10   70  97  73  98 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   68  95  71  97 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR
     OKZ060.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 9 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ070-OKZ071.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....22





000
FXUS64 KOUN 211807
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
107 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION...
21/18Z TAFS...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 10-11Z
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SOME LIGHT FOG AND PERHAPS LOW CLOUDS MAY
FORM MAINLY NEAR SUNRISE...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

AVIATION...
SOME GUSTS AGAIN TODAY ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA ABOVE 20KTS. OTHERWISE... JUST A FEW AFTN CU
WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SUMMER HAS RETURNED AND ALONG WITH IT HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THESE WILL
RESULT IN HIGH HUMIDITY AND HIGH DAYTIME HEAT INDICES. TEMPS WILL
WARM INTO THE 90S AND NEAR 100 ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA WITH AFTN
HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 100 TO 107 NEXT FEW DAYS. NIGHT-TIME
TEMPS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY... BUT WILL WATCH CLOSELY.

A WEAK SFC FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY WED... WHICH MAY
BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE AREA. IT WILL ALSO BRING EVER
SO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TO PART OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

WE WARM RIGHT BACK UP ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONT BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND COOLER TEMPS BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  98  74  98 /   0  10  10  20
HOBART OK         72 100  74 103 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  74 100  75 102 /   0  10   0  10
GAGE OK           71 101  69 100 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     74  98  75  97 /  10  10  10  20
DURANT OK         73  99  75  98 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 211807
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
107 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION...
21/18Z TAFS...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 10-11Z
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SOME LIGHT FOG AND PERHAPS LOW CLOUDS MAY
FORM MAINLY NEAR SUNRISE...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

AVIATION...
SOME GUSTS AGAIN TODAY ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA ABOVE 20KTS. OTHERWISE... JUST A FEW AFTN CU
WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SUMMER HAS RETURNED AND ALONG WITH IT HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THESE WILL
RESULT IN HIGH HUMIDITY AND HIGH DAYTIME HEAT INDICES. TEMPS WILL
WARM INTO THE 90S AND NEAR 100 ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA WITH AFTN
HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 100 TO 107 NEXT FEW DAYS. NIGHT-TIME
TEMPS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY... BUT WILL WATCH CLOSELY.

A WEAK SFC FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY WED... WHICH MAY
BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE AREA. IT WILL ALSO BRING EVER
SO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TO PART OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

WE WARM RIGHT BACK UP ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONT BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND COOLER TEMPS BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  98  74  98 /   0  10  10  20
HOBART OK         72 100  74 103 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  74 100  75 102 /   0  10   0  10
GAGE OK           71 101  69 100 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     74  98  75  97 /  10  10  10  20
DURANT OK         73  99  75  98 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 211807
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
107 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION...
21/18Z TAFS...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 10-11Z
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SOME LIGHT FOG AND PERHAPS LOW CLOUDS MAY
FORM MAINLY NEAR SUNRISE...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

AVIATION...
SOME GUSTS AGAIN TODAY ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA ABOVE 20KTS. OTHERWISE... JUST A FEW AFTN CU
WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SUMMER HAS RETURNED AND ALONG WITH IT HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THESE WILL
RESULT IN HIGH HUMIDITY AND HIGH DAYTIME HEAT INDICES. TEMPS WILL
WARM INTO THE 90S AND NEAR 100 ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA WITH AFTN
HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 100 TO 107 NEXT FEW DAYS. NIGHT-TIME
TEMPS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY... BUT WILL WATCH CLOSELY.

A WEAK SFC FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY WED... WHICH MAY
BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE AREA. IT WILL ALSO BRING EVER
SO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TO PART OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

WE WARM RIGHT BACK UP ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONT BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND COOLER TEMPS BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  98  74  98 /   0  10  10  20
HOBART OK         72 100  74 103 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  74 100  75 102 /   0  10   0  10
GAGE OK           71 101  69 100 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     74  98  75  97 /  10  10  10  20
DURANT OK         73  99  75  98 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 211807
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
107 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION...
21/18Z TAFS...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 10-11Z
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SOME LIGHT FOG AND PERHAPS LOW CLOUDS MAY
FORM MAINLY NEAR SUNRISE...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

AVIATION...
SOME GUSTS AGAIN TODAY ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA ABOVE 20KTS. OTHERWISE... JUST A FEW AFTN CU
WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SUMMER HAS RETURNED AND ALONG WITH IT HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THESE WILL
RESULT IN HIGH HUMIDITY AND HIGH DAYTIME HEAT INDICES. TEMPS WILL
WARM INTO THE 90S AND NEAR 100 ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA WITH AFTN
HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 100 TO 107 NEXT FEW DAYS. NIGHT-TIME
TEMPS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY... BUT WILL WATCH CLOSELY.

A WEAK SFC FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY WED... WHICH MAY
BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE AREA. IT WILL ALSO BRING EVER
SO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TO PART OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

WE WARM RIGHT BACK UP ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONT BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND COOLER TEMPS BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  98  74  98 /   0  10  10  20
HOBART OK         72 100  74 103 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  74 100  75 102 /   0  10   0  10
GAGE OK           71 101  69 100 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     74  98  75  97 /  10  10  10  20
DURANT OK         73  99  75  98 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 211703
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1203 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
OTHER THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NW AR TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL RESULT IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL OF LATTER JULY. ADVERTISED MAX
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ON TRACK PER 12Z SOUNDINGS. EVEN WARMER TEMPS
EXPECTED TOMORROW...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT.

NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR
     OKZ060.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 211703
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1203 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
OTHER THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NW AR TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL RESULT IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL OF LATTER JULY. ADVERTISED MAX
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ON TRACK PER 12Z SOUNDINGS. EVEN WARMER TEMPS
EXPECTED TOMORROW...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT.

NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR
     OKZ060.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KTSA 211536
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1036 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL RESULT IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL OF LATTER JULY. ADVERTISED MAX
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ON TRACK PER 12Z SOUNDINGS. EVEN WARMER TEMPS
EXPECTED TOMORROW...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT.

NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR
     OKZ060.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 211536
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1036 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL RESULT IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL OF LATTER JULY. ADVERTISED MAX
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ON TRACK PER 12Z SOUNDINGS. EVEN WARMER TEMPS
EXPECTED TOMORROW...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT.

NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR
     OKZ060.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 211536
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1036 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL RESULT IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL OF LATTER JULY. ADVERTISED MAX
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ON TRACK PER 12Z SOUNDINGS. EVEN WARMER TEMPS
EXPECTED TOMORROW...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT.

NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR
     OKZ060.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 211536
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1036 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL RESULT IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL OF LATTER JULY. ADVERTISED MAX
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ON TRACK PER 12Z SOUNDINGS. EVEN WARMER TEMPS
EXPECTED TOMORROW...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT.

NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR
     OKZ060.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....22






    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities