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000
FXUS64 KTSA 011129
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
629 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONGOING CONVECTION WILL IMPACT NE OK / NW AR SITES FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS W/ A CONTINUAL DECAY THROUGH MID MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS
AGAIN DEVELOPING NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER AND POSSIBLY SPREADING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE EVENING / EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH FLIGHT
IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX LURKING JUST NORTH OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER THIS MORNING WILL CLIP PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST. WILL MAKE A LAST MINUTE CALL ON POPS FOR THIS
MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES TO NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. WITH STRONG
AFTERNOON HEATING...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THE CONCERN. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY TONIGHT AS STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME
LOCATION. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN
END ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.

UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME DURING THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   95  75  93  76 /  30  50  40  20
FSM   94  75  93  74 /  20  20  30  20
MLC   93  76  93  75 /  10  20  30  10
BVO   96  74  93  70 /  50  50  40  20
FYV   90  72  88  70 /  60  50  40  30
BYV   90  72  88  71 /  60  40  40  30
MKO   94  75  92  73 /  40  40  40  20
MIO   92  73  89  72 /  60  60  40  30
F10   93  76  92  74 /  20  30  30  10
HHW   94  75  94  74 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07





000
FXUS64 KTSA 011129
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
629 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONGOING CONVECTION WILL IMPACT NE OK / NW AR SITES FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS W/ A CONTINUAL DECAY THROUGH MID MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS
AGAIN DEVELOPING NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER AND POSSIBLY SPREADING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE EVENING / EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH FLIGHT
IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX LURKING JUST NORTH OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER THIS MORNING WILL CLIP PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST. WILL MAKE A LAST MINUTE CALL ON POPS FOR THIS
MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES TO NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. WITH STRONG
AFTERNOON HEATING...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THE CONCERN. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY TONIGHT AS STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME
LOCATION. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN
END ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.

UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME DURING THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   95  75  93  76 /  30  50  40  20
FSM   94  75  93  74 /  20  20  30  20
MLC   93  76  93  75 /  10  20  30  10
BVO   96  74  93  70 /  50  50  40  20
FYV   90  72  88  70 /  60  50  40  30
BYV   90  72  88  71 /  60  40  40  30
MKO   94  75  92  73 /  40  40  40  20
MIO   92  73  89  72 /  60  60  40  30
F10   93  76  92  74 /  20  30  30  10
HHW   94  75  94  74 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07





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000
FXUS64 KOUN 011128
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
625 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
01/12Z TAFS...WIND SHIFT REACH NW OK SITES THIS MORNING AS COLD
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SE. OTRW...BRISK SOUTH/SW WINDS WILL PERSIST
ELSEWHERE. SCT TSTMS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE AFTN VICINITY OF THE FRONT
THEN BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT ACROSS NRN OK. WILL INCLUDE TSRA
GROUPS AT NRN OK SITES TONIGHT WITH SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING THROUGH SERN KS EXPECTED TO STAY
MAINLY NE OF THE FA THIS MORNING...BUT WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS
IN THE FAR NE FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NRN OK TODAY AND EXTEND FROM NCNTRL TO
WCNTRL OK BY LATE AFTN. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY BY LATE AFTN WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN
NCNTRL OK. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN OK...AS A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTS
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN OK LATE THIS AFTN/EVE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT. BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STORM CHANCES AGAIN LIMITED
TO NRN SECTIONS OF THE FA.

DRY AND HOT WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE
AREA BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES RETURN TO NW OK THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  97  74  95  73 /  10  20  20  10
HOBART OK         99  75  98  73 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX 100  76  99  74 /  10   0  10   0
GAGE OK           93  67  94  71 /  20  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     96  69  91  73 /  20  50  40  30
DURANT OK         96  75  95  72 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/02




000
FXUS64 KOUN 011128
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
625 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
01/12Z TAFS...WIND SHIFT REACH NW OK SITES THIS MORNING AS COLD
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SE. OTRW...BRISK SOUTH/SW WINDS WILL PERSIST
ELSEWHERE. SCT TSTMS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE AFTN VICINITY OF THE FRONT
THEN BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT ACROSS NRN OK. WILL INCLUDE TSRA
GROUPS AT NRN OK SITES TONIGHT WITH SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING THROUGH SERN KS EXPECTED TO STAY
MAINLY NE OF THE FA THIS MORNING...BUT WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS
IN THE FAR NE FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NRN OK TODAY AND EXTEND FROM NCNTRL TO
WCNTRL OK BY LATE AFTN. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY BY LATE AFTN WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN
NCNTRL OK. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN OK...AS A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTS
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN OK LATE THIS AFTN/EVE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT. BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STORM CHANCES AGAIN LIMITED
TO NRN SECTIONS OF THE FA.

DRY AND HOT WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE
AREA BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES RETURN TO NW OK THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  97  74  95  73 /  10  20  20  10
HOBART OK         99  75  98  73 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX 100  76  99  74 /  10   0  10   0
GAGE OK           93  67  94  71 /  20  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     96  69  91  73 /  20  50  40  30
DURANT OK         96  75  95  72 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/02



000
FXUS64 KOUN 010847
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
347 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING THROUGH SERN KS EXPECTED TO STAY
MAINLY NE OF THE FA THIS MORNING...BUT WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS
IN THE FAR NE FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NRN OK TODAY AND EXTEND FROM NCNTRL TO
WCNTRL OK BY LATE AFTN. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY BY LATE AFTN WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN
NCNTRL OK. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN OK...AS A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTS
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN OK LATE THIS AFTN/EVE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT. BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STORM CHANCES AGAIN LIMITED
TO NRN SECTIONS OF THE FA.

DRY AND HOT WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE
AREA BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES RETURN TO NW OK THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  97  74  95  73 /  10  20  20  10
HOBART OK         99  75  98  73 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX 100  76  99  74 /  10   0  10   0
GAGE OK           93  67  94  71 /  20  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     96  69  91  73 /  20  50  40  30
DURANT OK         96  75  95  72 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/02



000
FXUS64 KOUN 010847
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
347 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING THROUGH SERN KS EXPECTED TO STAY
MAINLY NE OF THE FA THIS MORNING...BUT WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS
IN THE FAR NE FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NRN OK TODAY AND EXTEND FROM NCNTRL TO
WCNTRL OK BY LATE AFTN. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY BY LATE AFTN WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN
NCNTRL OK. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN OK...AS A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTS
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN OK LATE THIS AFTN/EVE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT. BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STORM CHANCES AGAIN LIMITED
TO NRN SECTIONS OF THE FA.

DRY AND HOT WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE
AREA BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES RETURN TO NW OK THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  97  74  95  73 /  10  20  20  10
HOBART OK         99  75  98  73 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX 100  76  99  74 /  10   0  10   0
GAGE OK           93  67  94  71 /  20  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     96  69  91  73 /  20  50  40  30
DURANT OK         96  75  95  72 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/02




000
FXUS64 KTSA 010810
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
310 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX LURKING JUST NORTH OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER THIS MORNING WILL CLIP PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST. WILL MAKE A LAST MINUTE CALL ON POPS FOR THIS
MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES TO NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. WITH STRONG
AFTERNOON HEATING...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THE CONCERN. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY TONIGHT AS STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME
LOCATION. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN
END ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.

UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME DURING THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   95  75  93  76 /  10  50  40  20
FSM   94  75  93  74 /  10  20  30  20
MLC   93  76  93  75 /   0  20  30  10
BVO   96  74  93  70 /  30  50  40  20
FYV   90  72  88  70 /  60  50  40  30
BYV   90  72  88  71 /  60  40  40  30
MKO   94  75  92  73 /  10  40  40  20
MIO   92  73  89  72 /  60  60  40  30
F10   93  76  92  74 /  10  30  30  10
HHW   94  75  94  74 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 010810
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
310 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX LURKING JUST NORTH OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER THIS MORNING WILL CLIP PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST. WILL MAKE A LAST MINUTE CALL ON POPS FOR THIS
MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES TO NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. WITH STRONG
AFTERNOON HEATING...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THE CONCERN. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY TONIGHT AS STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME
LOCATION. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN
END ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.

UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME DURING THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   95  75  93  76 /  10  50  40  20
FSM   94  75  93  74 /  10  20  30  20
MLC   93  76  93  75 /   0  20  30  10
BVO   96  74  93  70 /  30  50  40  20
FYV   90  72  88  70 /  60  50  40  30
BYV   90  72  88  71 /  60  40  40  30
MKO   94  75  92  73 /  10  40  40  20
MIO   92  73  89  72 /  60  60  40  30
F10   93  76  92  74 /  10  30  30  10
HHW   94  75  94  74 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 010810
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
310 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX LURKING JUST NORTH OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER THIS MORNING WILL CLIP PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST. WILL MAKE A LAST MINUTE CALL ON POPS FOR THIS
MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES TO NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. WITH STRONG
AFTERNOON HEATING...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THE CONCERN. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY TONIGHT AS STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME
LOCATION. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN
END ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.

UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME DURING THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   95  75  93  76 /  10  50  40  20
FSM   94  75  93  74 /  10  20  30  20
MLC   93  76  93  75 /   0  20  30  10
BVO   96  74  93  70 /  30  50  40  20
FYV   90  72  88  70 /  60  50  40  30
BYV   90  72  88  71 /  60  40  40  30
MKO   94  75  92  73 /  10  40  40  20
MIO   92  73  89  72 /  60  60  40  30
F10   93  76  92  74 /  10  30  30  10
HHW   94  75  94  74 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 010810
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
310 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX LURKING JUST NORTH OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER THIS MORNING WILL CLIP PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST. WILL MAKE A LAST MINUTE CALL ON POPS FOR THIS
MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES TO NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. WITH STRONG
AFTERNOON HEATING...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THE CONCERN. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY TONIGHT AS STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME
LOCATION. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN
END ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.

UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME DURING THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   95  75  93  76 /  10  50  40  20
FSM   94  75  93  74 /  10  20  30  20
MLC   93  76  93  75 /   0  20  30  10
BVO   96  74  93  70 /  30  50  40  20
FYV   90  72  88  70 /  60  50  40  30
BYV   90  72  88  71 /  60  40  40  30
MKO   94  75  92  73 /  10  40  40  20
MIO   92  73  89  72 /  60  60  40  30
F10   93  76  92  74 /  10  30  30  10
HHW   94  75  94  74 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 010447
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1147 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONGOING CONVECION ACROSS KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AREAWIDE FOR MONDAY.
ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED ALONG COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KBVO/KFYV AND KXNA
AFTER 03Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST POINTS THIS EVENING ARE THAT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT AND SO WILL TEMPERATURES. THESE ITEMS ARE COVERED
WELL BY THE GOING FORECAST AND SO THERE WILL BE NO UPDATE THIS
EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS KANSAS MAY APPROACH THE OKLAHOMA
LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL KEEP A MENTION OF VICINITY THUNDER
FOR KBVO. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS...WITH BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A FAST MOVING VORT MAX WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN WY PER WV
IMAGERY...LOCATED IN THE BASE OF A BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CONUS. WINDS WERE 100KTS
AT JET LEVEL ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE VORT MAX...SO THIS SYSTEM IS
FAIRLY ENERGETIC AND WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT. ANOTHER VORT MAX WAS LOCATED UPSTREAM OFF THE COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE TOMORROW. AT
THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL
KEEP SOUTH WINDS UP TONIGHT...COMBINE THAT WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS
IN PLACE WILL YIELD A RATHER WARM NIGHT TONIGHT.

AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL ADVECT EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
ARKANSAS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE WESTERLIES TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. WITH 700MB TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF +12 TO +14C...THERE WILL
BE A STOUT CAP IN PLACE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANY STORMS WHICH
DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST FOR TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH
IN OUR DIRECTION ON MONDAY...SLOWING AS IT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. DUE TO THE STRONG CAP...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
TILL LATE AFTERNOON...CLOSER TO 00Z...BEFORE STORMS CAN FIRE ALONG
THE FRONT. STORMS WILL FIRE FIRST IN SW MO THEN DOWN INTO SE KS
AND N CNTRL OK WITH TIME. THE BEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
WITH THE INITIAL AND DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT...BEFORE STORMS LIKELY
CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS AND DROP SOUTH INTO NE OK AND NW AR MONDAY
NIGHT. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
TREND THEM DOWN ON TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY...POSSIBLY CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW REINFORCED BY THEN...STALLS AND THEN STARTS TO RETREAT
NORTH. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE
WARM ADVECTION REGIME NORTH OF THE RETREATING BOUNDARY AND THUS
SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS. RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL END PRECIP CHANCES OVER
OUR REGION FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC RUNS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
THE LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST...SURPRISINGLY. A PROGRESSIVE LOW
AMPLITUDE REGIME SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES...WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
STATES. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE COUNTRY...AND WILL HELP TO ERODE THE
RIDGE WHILE ALSO FORCING A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION. THE DATA
SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A BETTER SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THIS FRONT. ODDS
ARE THAT THE WEEK WILL CLOSE OUT ON A COOLER AND WETTER
NOTE...HOPEFULLY. HIGHS/LOWS WERE LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES NEXT
WEEKEND BACK INTO THE 80S.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  95  75  93 /  10  10  50  40
FSM   73  93  75  92 /  10  10  20  40
MLC   77  93  76  93 /  10   0  20  20
BVO   76  95  71  92 /  10  30  50  40
FYV   71  89  73  86 /  10  20  40  50
BYV   71  91  71  85 /  10  20  50  50
MKO   73  93  75  92 /  10  10  30  40
MIO   74  92  72  88 /  10  30  50  50
F10   75  93  76  93 /  10  10  30  30
HHW   73  94  75  93 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 010447
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1147 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONGOING CONVECION ACROSS KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AREAWIDE FOR MONDAY.
ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED ALONG COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KBVO/KFYV AND KXNA
AFTER 03Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST POINTS THIS EVENING ARE THAT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT AND SO WILL TEMPERATURES. THESE ITEMS ARE COVERED
WELL BY THE GOING FORECAST AND SO THERE WILL BE NO UPDATE THIS
EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS KANSAS MAY APPROACH THE OKLAHOMA
LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL KEEP A MENTION OF VICINITY THUNDER
FOR KBVO. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS...WITH BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A FAST MOVING VORT MAX WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN WY PER WV
IMAGERY...LOCATED IN THE BASE OF A BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CONUS. WINDS WERE 100KTS
AT JET LEVEL ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE VORT MAX...SO THIS SYSTEM IS
FAIRLY ENERGETIC AND WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT. ANOTHER VORT MAX WAS LOCATED UPSTREAM OFF THE COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE TOMORROW. AT
THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL
KEEP SOUTH WINDS UP TONIGHT...COMBINE THAT WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS
IN PLACE WILL YIELD A RATHER WARM NIGHT TONIGHT.

AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL ADVECT EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
ARKANSAS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE WESTERLIES TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. WITH 700MB TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF +12 TO +14C...THERE WILL
BE A STOUT CAP IN PLACE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANY STORMS WHICH
DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST FOR TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH
IN OUR DIRECTION ON MONDAY...SLOWING AS IT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. DUE TO THE STRONG CAP...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
TILL LATE AFTERNOON...CLOSER TO 00Z...BEFORE STORMS CAN FIRE ALONG
THE FRONT. STORMS WILL FIRE FIRST IN SW MO THEN DOWN INTO SE KS
AND N CNTRL OK WITH TIME. THE BEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
WITH THE INITIAL AND DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT...BEFORE STORMS LIKELY
CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS AND DROP SOUTH INTO NE OK AND NW AR MONDAY
NIGHT. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
TREND THEM DOWN ON TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY...POSSIBLY CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW REINFORCED BY THEN...STALLS AND THEN STARTS TO RETREAT
NORTH. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE
WARM ADVECTION REGIME NORTH OF THE RETREATING BOUNDARY AND THUS
SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS. RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL END PRECIP CHANCES OVER
OUR REGION FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC RUNS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
THE LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST...SURPRISINGLY. A PROGRESSIVE LOW
AMPLITUDE REGIME SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES...WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
STATES. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE COUNTRY...AND WILL HELP TO ERODE THE
RIDGE WHILE ALSO FORCING A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION. THE DATA
SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A BETTER SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THIS FRONT. ODDS
ARE THAT THE WEEK WILL CLOSE OUT ON A COOLER AND WETTER
NOTE...HOPEFULLY. HIGHS/LOWS WERE LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES NEXT
WEEKEND BACK INTO THE 80S.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  95  75  93 /  10  10  50  40
FSM   73  93  75  92 /  10  10  20  40
MLC   77  93  76  93 /  10   0  20  20
BVO   76  95  71  92 /  10  30  50  40
FYV   71  89  73  86 /  10  20  40  50
BYV   71  91  71  85 /  10  20  50  50
MKO   73  93  75  92 /  10  10  30  40
MIO   74  92  72  88 /  10  30  50  50
F10   75  93  76  93 /  10  10  30  30
HHW   73  94  75  93 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 010447
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1147 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONGOING CONVECION ACROSS KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AREAWIDE FOR MONDAY.
ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED ALONG COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KBVO/KFYV AND KXNA
AFTER 03Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST POINTS THIS EVENING ARE THAT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT AND SO WILL TEMPERATURES. THESE ITEMS ARE COVERED
WELL BY THE GOING FORECAST AND SO THERE WILL BE NO UPDATE THIS
EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS KANSAS MAY APPROACH THE OKLAHOMA
LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL KEEP A MENTION OF VICINITY THUNDER
FOR KBVO. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS...WITH BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A FAST MOVING VORT MAX WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN WY PER WV
IMAGERY...LOCATED IN THE BASE OF A BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CONUS. WINDS WERE 100KTS
AT JET LEVEL ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE VORT MAX...SO THIS SYSTEM IS
FAIRLY ENERGETIC AND WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT. ANOTHER VORT MAX WAS LOCATED UPSTREAM OFF THE COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE TOMORROW. AT
THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL
KEEP SOUTH WINDS UP TONIGHT...COMBINE THAT WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS
IN PLACE WILL YIELD A RATHER WARM NIGHT TONIGHT.

AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL ADVECT EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
ARKANSAS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE WESTERLIES TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. WITH 700MB TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF +12 TO +14C...THERE WILL
BE A STOUT CAP IN PLACE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANY STORMS WHICH
DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST FOR TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH
IN OUR DIRECTION ON MONDAY...SLOWING AS IT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. DUE TO THE STRONG CAP...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
TILL LATE AFTERNOON...CLOSER TO 00Z...BEFORE STORMS CAN FIRE ALONG
THE FRONT. STORMS WILL FIRE FIRST IN SW MO THEN DOWN INTO SE KS
AND N CNTRL OK WITH TIME. THE BEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
WITH THE INITIAL AND DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT...BEFORE STORMS LIKELY
CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS AND DROP SOUTH INTO NE OK AND NW AR MONDAY
NIGHT. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
TREND THEM DOWN ON TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY...POSSIBLY CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW REINFORCED BY THEN...STALLS AND THEN STARTS TO RETREAT
NORTH. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE
WARM ADVECTION REGIME NORTH OF THE RETREATING BOUNDARY AND THUS
SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS. RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL END PRECIP CHANCES OVER
OUR REGION FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC RUNS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
THE LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST...SURPRISINGLY. A PROGRESSIVE LOW
AMPLITUDE REGIME SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES...WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
STATES. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE COUNTRY...AND WILL HELP TO ERODE THE
RIDGE WHILE ALSO FORCING A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION. THE DATA
SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A BETTER SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THIS FRONT. ODDS
ARE THAT THE WEEK WILL CLOSE OUT ON A COOLER AND WETTER
NOTE...HOPEFULLY. HIGHS/LOWS WERE LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES NEXT
WEEKEND BACK INTO THE 80S.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  95  75  93 /  10  10  50  40
FSM   73  93  75  92 /  10  10  20  40
MLC   77  93  76  93 /  10   0  20  20
BVO   76  95  71  92 /  10  30  50  40
FYV   71  89  73  86 /  10  20  40  50
BYV   71  91  71  85 /  10  20  50  50
MKO   73  93  75  92 /  10  10  30  40
MIO   74  92  72  88 /  10  30  50  50
F10   75  93  76  93 /  10  10  30  30
HHW   73  94  75  93 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 010447
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1147 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONGOING CONVECION ACROSS KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AREAWIDE FOR MONDAY.
ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED ALONG COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KBVO/KFYV AND KXNA
AFTER 03Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST POINTS THIS EVENING ARE THAT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT AND SO WILL TEMPERATURES. THESE ITEMS ARE COVERED
WELL BY THE GOING FORECAST AND SO THERE WILL BE NO UPDATE THIS
EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS KANSAS MAY APPROACH THE OKLAHOMA
LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL KEEP A MENTION OF VICINITY THUNDER
FOR KBVO. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS...WITH BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A FAST MOVING VORT MAX WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN WY PER WV
IMAGERY...LOCATED IN THE BASE OF A BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CONUS. WINDS WERE 100KTS
AT JET LEVEL ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE VORT MAX...SO THIS SYSTEM IS
FAIRLY ENERGETIC AND WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT. ANOTHER VORT MAX WAS LOCATED UPSTREAM OFF THE COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE TOMORROW. AT
THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL
KEEP SOUTH WINDS UP TONIGHT...COMBINE THAT WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS
IN PLACE WILL YIELD A RATHER WARM NIGHT TONIGHT.

AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL ADVECT EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
ARKANSAS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE WESTERLIES TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. WITH 700MB TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF +12 TO +14C...THERE WILL
BE A STOUT CAP IN PLACE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANY STORMS WHICH
DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST FOR TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH
IN OUR DIRECTION ON MONDAY...SLOWING AS IT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. DUE TO THE STRONG CAP...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
TILL LATE AFTERNOON...CLOSER TO 00Z...BEFORE STORMS CAN FIRE ALONG
THE FRONT. STORMS WILL FIRE FIRST IN SW MO THEN DOWN INTO SE KS
AND N CNTRL OK WITH TIME. THE BEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
WITH THE INITIAL AND DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT...BEFORE STORMS LIKELY
CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS AND DROP SOUTH INTO NE OK AND NW AR MONDAY
NIGHT. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
TREND THEM DOWN ON TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY...POSSIBLY CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW REINFORCED BY THEN...STALLS AND THEN STARTS TO RETREAT
NORTH. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE
WARM ADVECTION REGIME NORTH OF THE RETREATING BOUNDARY AND THUS
SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS. RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL END PRECIP CHANCES OVER
OUR REGION FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC RUNS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
THE LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST...SURPRISINGLY. A PROGRESSIVE LOW
AMPLITUDE REGIME SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES...WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
STATES. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE COUNTRY...AND WILL HELP TO ERODE THE
RIDGE WHILE ALSO FORCING A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION. THE DATA
SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A BETTER SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THIS FRONT. ODDS
ARE THAT THE WEEK WILL CLOSE OUT ON A COOLER AND WETTER
NOTE...HOPEFULLY. HIGHS/LOWS WERE LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES NEXT
WEEKEND BACK INTO THE 80S.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  95  75  93 /  10  10  50  40
FSM   73  93  75  92 /  10  10  20  40
MLC   77  93  76  93 /  10   0  20  20
BVO   76  95  71  92 /  10  30  50  40
FYV   71  89  73  86 /  10  20  40  50
BYV   71  91  71  85 /  10  20  50  50
MKO   73  93  75  92 /  10  10  30  40
MIO   74  92  72  88 /  10  30  50  50
F10   75  93  76  93 /  10  10  30  30
HHW   73  94  75  93 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18






000
FXUS64 KOUN 010428 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1128 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
01/06Z TAFS...VFR AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE TONIGHT AND MOST OF TOMORROW. STORMS IN KANSAS
IN THE NEAR TERM ARE EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS. FROPA STILL EXPECTED 15-17Z AT
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TERMINALS AND APPROACH KPNC AND KCSM
LATE IN THE PERIOD. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TRSA POSSIBLE
NEAR FRONT TOWARD AND AFTER 00Z AND WILL MENTION IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

.UPDATE...
REMOVED MOST POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE
DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION HAS REMAINED WELL NORTH OF OUR FA THIS
EVENING NEAR A COLD FRONT AND JUST AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS STILL A SLIM CHANCE SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD SLIDE SOUTH FAR ENOUGH TO IMPACT EXTREME
NORTHERN OK THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SO WILL LEAVE SCHC
POPS IN ALONG THE BORDER. OTHERWISE...EXPECT BREEZY S WINDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS LLJ INTENSIFIES. ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS
SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT CURRENT SAT IMAGERY. NO OTHER SIG CHANGES
NEEDED. ALL UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  97  74  95 /   0  10  20  20
HOBART OK         74  99  75  97 /   0  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  77 100  76  98 /   0  10   0  10
GAGE OK           72  93  68  94 /  10  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     76  96  70  92 /  10  20  60  40
DURANT OK         74  96  75  95 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 010208 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
908 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
REMOVED MOST POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE
DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION HAS REMAINED WELL NORTH OF OUR FA THIS
EVENING NEAR A COLD FRONT AND JUST AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS STILL A SLIM CHANCE SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD SLIDE SOUTH FAR ENOUGH TO IMPACT EXTREME
NORTHERN OK THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SO WILL LEAVE SCHC
POPS IN ALONG THE BORDER. OTHERWISE...EXPECT BREEZY S WINDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS LLJ INTENSIFIES. ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS
SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT CURRENT SAT IMAGERY. NO OTHER SIG CHANGES
NEEDED. ALL UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  97  74  95 /   0  10  20  20
HOBART OK         74  99  75  97 /   0  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  77 100  76  98 /   0  10   0  10
GAGE OK           72  93  68  94 /  10  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     76  96  70  92 /  10  20  60  40
DURANT OK         74  96  75  95 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 010208 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
908 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
REMOVED MOST POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE
DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION HAS REMAINED WELL NORTH OF OUR FA THIS
EVENING NEAR A COLD FRONT AND JUST AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS STILL A SLIM CHANCE SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD SLIDE SOUTH FAR ENOUGH TO IMPACT EXTREME
NORTHERN OK THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SO WILL LEAVE SCHC
POPS IN ALONG THE BORDER. OTHERWISE...EXPECT BREEZY S WINDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS LLJ INTENSIFIES. ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS
SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT CURRENT SAT IMAGERY. NO OTHER SIG CHANGES
NEEDED. ALL UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  97  74  95 /   0  10  20  20
HOBART OK         74  99  75  97 /   0  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  77 100  76  98 /   0  10   0  10
GAGE OK           72  93  68  94 /  10  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     76  96  70  92 /  10  20  60  40
DURANT OK         74  96  75  95 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 010208 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
908 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
REMOVED MOST POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE
DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION HAS REMAINED WELL NORTH OF OUR FA THIS
EVENING NEAR A COLD FRONT AND JUST AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS STILL A SLIM CHANCE SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD SLIDE SOUTH FAR ENOUGH TO IMPACT EXTREME
NORTHERN OK THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SO WILL LEAVE SCHC
POPS IN ALONG THE BORDER. OTHERWISE...EXPECT BREEZY S WINDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS LLJ INTENSIFIES. ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS
SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT CURRENT SAT IMAGERY. NO OTHER SIG CHANGES
NEEDED. ALL UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  97  74  95 /   0  10  20  20
HOBART OK         74  99  75  97 /   0  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  77 100  76  98 /   0  10   0  10
GAGE OK           72  93  68  94 /  10  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     76  96  70  92 /  10  20  60  40
DURANT OK         74  96  75  95 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 010208 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
908 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
REMOVED MOST POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE
DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION HAS REMAINED WELL NORTH OF OUR FA THIS
EVENING NEAR A COLD FRONT AND JUST AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS STILL A SLIM CHANCE SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD SLIDE SOUTH FAR ENOUGH TO IMPACT EXTREME
NORTHERN OK THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SO WILL LEAVE SCHC
POPS IN ALONG THE BORDER. OTHERWISE...EXPECT BREEZY S WINDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS LLJ INTENSIFIES. ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS
SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT CURRENT SAT IMAGERY. NO OTHER SIG CHANGES
NEEDED. ALL UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  97  74  95 /   0  10  20  20
HOBART OK         74  99  75  97 /   0  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  77 100  76  98 /   0  10   0  10
GAGE OK           72  93  68  94 /  10  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     76  96  70  92 /  10  20  60  40
DURANT OK         74  96  75  95 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/11




000
FXUS64 KTSA 010200
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
900 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST POINTS THIS EVENING ARE THAT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT AND SO WILL TEMPERATURES. THESE ITEMS ARE COVERED
WELL BY THE GOING FORECAST AND SO THERE WILL BE NO UPDATE THIS
EVENING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS KANSAS MAY APPROACH THE OKLAHOMA
LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL KEEP A MENTION OF VICINITY THUNDER
FOR KBVO. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS...WITH BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A FAST MOVING VORT MAX WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN WY PER WV
IMAGERY...LOCATED IN THE BASE OF A BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CONUS. WINDS WERE 100KTS
AT JET LEVEL ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE VORT MAX...SO THIS SYSTEM IS
FAIRLY ENERGETIC AND WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT. ANOTHER VORT MAX WAS LOCATED UPSTREAM OFF THE COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE TOMORROW. AT
THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL
KEEP SOUTH WINDS UP TONIGHT...COMBINE THAT WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS
IN PLACE WILL YIELD A RATHER WARM NIGHT TONIGHT.

AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL ADVECT EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
ARKANSAS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE WESTERLIES TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. WITH 700MB TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF +12 TO +14C...THERE WILL
BE A STOUT CAP IN PLACE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANY STORMS WHICH
DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST FOR TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH
IN OUR DIRECTION ON MONDAY...SLOWING AS IT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. DUE TO THE STRONG CAP...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
TILL LATE AFTERNOON...CLOSER TO 00Z...BEFORE STORMS CAN FIRE ALONG
THE FRONT. STORMS WILL FIRE FIRST IN SW MO THEN DOWN INTO SE KS
AND N CNTRL OK WITH TIME. THE BEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
WITH THE INITIAL AND DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT...BEFORE STORMS LIKELY
CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS AND DROP SOUTH INTO NE OK AND NW AR MONDAY
NIGHT. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
TREND THEM DOWN ON TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY...POSSIBLY CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW REINFORCED BY THEN...STALLS AND THEN STARTS TO RETREAT
NORTH. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE
WARM ADVECTION REGIME NORTH OF THE RETREATING BOUNDARY AND THUS
SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS. RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL END PRECIP CHANCES OVER
OUR REGION FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC RUNS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
THE LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST...SURPRISINGLY. A PROGRESSIVE LOW
AMPLITUDE REGIME SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES...WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
STATES. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE COUNTRY...AND WILL HELP TO ERODE THE
RIDGE WHILE ALSO FORCING A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION. THE DATA
SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A BETTER SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THIS FRONT. ODDS
ARE THAT THE WEEK WILL CLOSE OUT ON A COOLER AND WETTER
NOTE...HOPEFULLY. HIGHS/LOWS WERE LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES NEXT
WEEKEND BACK INTO THE 80S.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 010200
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
900 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST POINTS THIS EVENING ARE THAT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT AND SO WILL TEMPERATURES. THESE ITEMS ARE COVERED
WELL BY THE GOING FORECAST AND SO THERE WILL BE NO UPDATE THIS
EVENING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS KANSAS MAY APPROACH THE OKLAHOMA
LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL KEEP A MENTION OF VICINITY THUNDER
FOR KBVO. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS...WITH BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A FAST MOVING VORT MAX WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN WY PER WV
IMAGERY...LOCATED IN THE BASE OF A BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CONUS. WINDS WERE 100KTS
AT JET LEVEL ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE VORT MAX...SO THIS SYSTEM IS
FAIRLY ENERGETIC AND WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT. ANOTHER VORT MAX WAS LOCATED UPSTREAM OFF THE COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE TOMORROW. AT
THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL
KEEP SOUTH WINDS UP TONIGHT...COMBINE THAT WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS
IN PLACE WILL YIELD A RATHER WARM NIGHT TONIGHT.

AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL ADVECT EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
ARKANSAS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE WESTERLIES TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. WITH 700MB TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF +12 TO +14C...THERE WILL
BE A STOUT CAP IN PLACE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANY STORMS WHICH
DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST FOR TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH
IN OUR DIRECTION ON MONDAY...SLOWING AS IT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. DUE TO THE STRONG CAP...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
TILL LATE AFTERNOON...CLOSER TO 00Z...BEFORE STORMS CAN FIRE ALONG
THE FRONT. STORMS WILL FIRE FIRST IN SW MO THEN DOWN INTO SE KS
AND N CNTRL OK WITH TIME. THE BEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
WITH THE INITIAL AND DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT...BEFORE STORMS LIKELY
CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS AND DROP SOUTH INTO NE OK AND NW AR MONDAY
NIGHT. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
TREND THEM DOWN ON TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY...POSSIBLY CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW REINFORCED BY THEN...STALLS AND THEN STARTS TO RETREAT
NORTH. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE
WARM ADVECTION REGIME NORTH OF THE RETREATING BOUNDARY AND THUS
SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS. RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL END PRECIP CHANCES OVER
OUR REGION FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC RUNS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
THE LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST...SURPRISINGLY. A PROGRESSIVE LOW
AMPLITUDE REGIME SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES...WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
STATES. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE COUNTRY...AND WILL HELP TO ERODE THE
RIDGE WHILE ALSO FORCING A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION. THE DATA
SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A BETTER SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THIS FRONT. ODDS
ARE THAT THE WEEK WILL CLOSE OUT ON A COOLER AND WETTER
NOTE...HOPEFULLY. HIGHS/LOWS WERE LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES NEXT
WEEKEND BACK INTO THE 80S.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06







000
FXUS64 KOUN 312345
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
645 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
01/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS
OF OKLAHOMA AND WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER SURFACE WIND EXPECTED NEAR
KPNC WILL ADD LLWS TO TERMINAL THERE. FROPA EXPECTED AROUND 16Z
OVER FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TERMINALS WITH S-SW MODERATE WINDS
AHEAD OF FRONT. ANY STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT THIS EVENING WILL
STAY WELL NORTH OF OKLAHOMA...AND ANY STORMS TOMORROW WOULD OCCUR
AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 111 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK WILL BE VERY HOT AND HUMID WHEN HEAT INDEX
VALUES RANGE 100 TO 105. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE JULY THAN EARLY
SEPTEMBER. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA LATER MONDAY AND STALL. ALTHOUGH THE WESTERLIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY NORTH OF OKLAHOMA, A WEAK WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS
ACROSS KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT AND RAIN AND THUNDER IS LIKELY THERE.
SOME OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT. THIS
FRONT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY BEFORE RETURNING NORTH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY, RAIN CHANCES ARE VERY LOW UNTIL
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG MID-SUMMER LIKE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD OVER OK. A WEAK FRONT MAY MOVE INTO OK DURING NEXT WEEKEND
WHICH WOULD BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN. HOWEVER, THE LOCATION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE AND THE TRACK OF THE WESTERLIES SO FAR NORTH OF
OKLAHOMA CURRENTLY GIVE LOW CONFIDENCE TO WEEKEND RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  97  74  95 /  10  10  20  20
HOBART OK         74  99  75  97 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  77 100  76  98 /  10  10   0  10
GAGE OK           72  93  68  94 /  20  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     76  96  70  92 /  20  20  60  40
DURANT OK         74  96  75  95 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/99/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 312345
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
645 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
01/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS
OF OKLAHOMA AND WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER SURFACE WIND EXPECTED NEAR
KPNC WILL ADD LLWS TO TERMINAL THERE. FROPA EXPECTED AROUND 16Z
OVER FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TERMINALS WITH S-SW MODERATE WINDS
AHEAD OF FRONT. ANY STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT THIS EVENING WILL
STAY WELL NORTH OF OKLAHOMA...AND ANY STORMS TOMORROW WOULD OCCUR
AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 111 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK WILL BE VERY HOT AND HUMID WHEN HEAT INDEX
VALUES RANGE 100 TO 105. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE JULY THAN EARLY
SEPTEMBER. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA LATER MONDAY AND STALL. ALTHOUGH THE WESTERLIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY NORTH OF OKLAHOMA, A WEAK WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS
ACROSS KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT AND RAIN AND THUNDER IS LIKELY THERE.
SOME OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT. THIS
FRONT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY BEFORE RETURNING NORTH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY, RAIN CHANCES ARE VERY LOW UNTIL
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG MID-SUMMER LIKE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD OVER OK. A WEAK FRONT MAY MOVE INTO OK DURING NEXT WEEKEND
WHICH WOULD BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN. HOWEVER, THE LOCATION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE AND THE TRACK OF THE WESTERLIES SO FAR NORTH OF
OKLAHOMA CURRENTLY GIVE LOW CONFIDENCE TO WEEKEND RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  97  74  95 /  10  10  20  20
HOBART OK         74  99  75  97 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  77 100  76  98 /  10  10   0  10
GAGE OK           72  93  68  94 /  20  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     76  96  70  92 /  20  20  60  40
DURANT OK         74  96  75  95 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/99/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 312345
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
645 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
01/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS
OF OKLAHOMA AND WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER SURFACE WIND EXPECTED NEAR
KPNC WILL ADD LLWS TO TERMINAL THERE. FROPA EXPECTED AROUND 16Z
OVER FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TERMINALS WITH S-SW MODERATE WINDS
AHEAD OF FRONT. ANY STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT THIS EVENING WILL
STAY WELL NORTH OF OKLAHOMA...AND ANY STORMS TOMORROW WOULD OCCUR
AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 111 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK WILL BE VERY HOT AND HUMID WHEN HEAT INDEX
VALUES RANGE 100 TO 105. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE JULY THAN EARLY
SEPTEMBER. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA LATER MONDAY AND STALL. ALTHOUGH THE WESTERLIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY NORTH OF OKLAHOMA, A WEAK WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS
ACROSS KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT AND RAIN AND THUNDER IS LIKELY THERE.
SOME OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT. THIS
FRONT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY BEFORE RETURNING NORTH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY, RAIN CHANCES ARE VERY LOW UNTIL
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG MID-SUMMER LIKE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD OVER OK. A WEAK FRONT MAY MOVE INTO OK DURING NEXT WEEKEND
WHICH WOULD BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN. HOWEVER, THE LOCATION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE AND THE TRACK OF THE WESTERLIES SO FAR NORTH OF
OKLAHOMA CURRENTLY GIVE LOW CONFIDENCE TO WEEKEND RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  97  74  95 /  10  10  20  20
HOBART OK         74  99  75  97 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  77 100  76  98 /  10  10   0  10
GAGE OK           72  93  68  94 /  20  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     76  96  70  92 /  20  20  60  40
DURANT OK         74  96  75  95 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/99/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 312345
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
645 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
01/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS
OF OKLAHOMA AND WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER SURFACE WIND EXPECTED NEAR
KPNC WILL ADD LLWS TO TERMINAL THERE. FROPA EXPECTED AROUND 16Z
OVER FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TERMINALS WITH S-SW MODERATE WINDS
AHEAD OF FRONT. ANY STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT THIS EVENING WILL
STAY WELL NORTH OF OKLAHOMA...AND ANY STORMS TOMORROW WOULD OCCUR
AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 111 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK WILL BE VERY HOT AND HUMID WHEN HEAT INDEX
VALUES RANGE 100 TO 105. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE JULY THAN EARLY
SEPTEMBER. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA LATER MONDAY AND STALL. ALTHOUGH THE WESTERLIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY NORTH OF OKLAHOMA, A WEAK WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS
ACROSS KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT AND RAIN AND THUNDER IS LIKELY THERE.
SOME OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT. THIS
FRONT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY BEFORE RETURNING NORTH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY, RAIN CHANCES ARE VERY LOW UNTIL
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG MID-SUMMER LIKE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD OVER OK. A WEAK FRONT MAY MOVE INTO OK DURING NEXT WEEKEND
WHICH WOULD BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN. HOWEVER, THE LOCATION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE AND THE TRACK OF THE WESTERLIES SO FAR NORTH OF
OKLAHOMA CURRENTLY GIVE LOW CONFIDENCE TO WEEKEND RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  97  74  95 /  10  10  20  20
HOBART OK         74  99  75  97 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  77 100  76  98 /  10  10   0  10
GAGE OK           72  93  68  94 /  20  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     76  96  70  92 /  20  20  60  40
DURANT OK         74  96  75  95 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/99/11



000
FXUS64 KTSA 312326
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
626 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS KANSAS MAY APPROACH THE OKLAHOMA
LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL KEEP A MENTION OF VICINITY THUNDER
FOR KBVO. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS...WITH BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A FAST MOVING VORT MAX WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN WY PER WV
IMAGERY...LOCATED IN THE BASE OF A BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CONUS. WINDS WERE 100KTS
AT JET LEVEL ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE VORT MAX...SO THIS SYSTEM IS
FAIRLY ENERGETIC AND WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT. ANOTHER VORT MAX WAS LOCATED UPSTREAM OFF THE COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE TOMORROW. AT
THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL
KEEP SOUTH WINDS UP TONIGHT...COMBINE THAT WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS
IN PLACE WILL YIELD A RATHER WARM NIGHT TONIGHT.

AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL ADVECT EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
ARKANSAS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE WESTERLIES TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. WITH 700MB TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF +12 TO +14C...THERE WILL
BE A STOUT CAP IN PLACE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANY STORMS WHICH
DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST FOR TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH
IN OUR DIRECTION ON MONDAY...SLOWING AS IT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. DUE TO THE STRONG CAP...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
TILL LATE AFTERNOON...CLOSER TO 00Z...BEFORE STORMS CAN FIRE ALONG
THE FRONT. STORMS WILL FIRE FIRST IN SW MO THEN DOWN INTO SE KS
AND N CNTRL OK WITH TIME. THE BEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
WITH THE INITIAL AND DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT...BEFORE STORMS LIKELY
CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS AND DROP SOUTH INTO NE OK AND NW AR MONDAY
NIGHT. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
TREND THEM DOWN ON TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY...POSSIBLY CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW REINFORCED BY THEN...STALLS AND THEN STARTS TO RETREAT
NORTH. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE
WARM ADVECTION REGIME NORTH OF THE RETREATING BOUNDARY AND THUS
SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS. RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL END PRECIP CHANCES OVER
OUR REGION FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC RUNS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
THE LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST...SURPRISINGLY. A PROGRESSIVE LOW
AMPLITUDE REGIME SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES...WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
STATES. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE COUNTRY...AND WILL HELP TO ERODE THE
RIDGE WHILE ALSO FORCING A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION. THE DATA
SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A BETTER SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THIS FRONT. ODDS
ARE THAT THE WEEK WILL CLOSE OUT ON A COOLER AND WETTER
NOTE...HOPEFULLY. HIGHS/LOWS WERE LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES NEXT
WEEKEND BACK INTO THE 80S.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  95  75  93 /  10  10  50  40
FSM   73  93  75  92 /  10  10  20  40
MLC   77  93  76  93 /  10   0  20  20
BVO   76  95  71  92 /  10  30  50  40
FYV   71  89  73  86 /  10  20  40  50
BYV   71  91  71  85 /  10  20  50  50
MKO   73  93  75  92 /  10  10  30  40
MIO   74  92  72  88 /  10  30  50  50
F10   75  93  76  93 /  10  10  30  30
HHW   73  94  75  93 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18





000
FXUS64 KTSA 312326
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
626 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS KANSAS MAY APPROACH THE OKLAHOMA
LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL KEEP A MENTION OF VICINITY THUNDER
FOR KBVO. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS...WITH BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A FAST MOVING VORT MAX WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN WY PER WV
IMAGERY...LOCATED IN THE BASE OF A BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CONUS. WINDS WERE 100KTS
AT JET LEVEL ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE VORT MAX...SO THIS SYSTEM IS
FAIRLY ENERGETIC AND WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT. ANOTHER VORT MAX WAS LOCATED UPSTREAM OFF THE COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE TOMORROW. AT
THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL
KEEP SOUTH WINDS UP TONIGHT...COMBINE THAT WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS
IN PLACE WILL YIELD A RATHER WARM NIGHT TONIGHT.

AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL ADVECT EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
ARKANSAS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE WESTERLIES TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. WITH 700MB TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF +12 TO +14C...THERE WILL
BE A STOUT CAP IN PLACE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANY STORMS WHICH
DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST FOR TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH
IN OUR DIRECTION ON MONDAY...SLOWING AS IT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. DUE TO THE STRONG CAP...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
TILL LATE AFTERNOON...CLOSER TO 00Z...BEFORE STORMS CAN FIRE ALONG
THE FRONT. STORMS WILL FIRE FIRST IN SW MO THEN DOWN INTO SE KS
AND N CNTRL OK WITH TIME. THE BEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
WITH THE INITIAL AND DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT...BEFORE STORMS LIKELY
CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS AND DROP SOUTH INTO NE OK AND NW AR MONDAY
NIGHT. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
TREND THEM DOWN ON TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY...POSSIBLY CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW REINFORCED BY THEN...STALLS AND THEN STARTS TO RETREAT
NORTH. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE
WARM ADVECTION REGIME NORTH OF THE RETREATING BOUNDARY AND THUS
SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS. RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL END PRECIP CHANCES OVER
OUR REGION FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC RUNS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
THE LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST...SURPRISINGLY. A PROGRESSIVE LOW
AMPLITUDE REGIME SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES...WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
STATES. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE COUNTRY...AND WILL HELP TO ERODE THE
RIDGE WHILE ALSO FORCING A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION. THE DATA
SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A BETTER SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THIS FRONT. ODDS
ARE THAT THE WEEK WILL CLOSE OUT ON A COOLER AND WETTER
NOTE...HOPEFULLY. HIGHS/LOWS WERE LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES NEXT
WEEKEND BACK INTO THE 80S.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  95  75  93 /  10  10  50  40
FSM   73  93  75  92 /  10  10  20  40
MLC   77  93  76  93 /  10   0  20  20
BVO   76  95  71  92 /  10  30  50  40
FYV   71  89  73  86 /  10  20  40  50
BYV   71  91  71  85 /  10  20  50  50
MKO   73  93  75  92 /  10  10  30  40
MIO   74  92  72  88 /  10  30  50  50
F10   75  93  76  93 /  10  10  30  30
HHW   73  94  75  93 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 312046
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
346 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A FAST MOVING VORT MAX WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN WY PER WV
IMAGERY...LOCATED IN THE BASE OF A BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CONUS. WINDS WERE 100KTS
AT JET LEVEL ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE VORT MAX...SO THIS SYSTEM IS
FAIRLY ENERGETIC AND WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT. ANOTHER VORT MAX WAS LOCATED UPSTREAM OFF THE COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE TOMORROW. AT
THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL
KEEP SOUTH WINDS UP TONIGHT...COMBINE THAT WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS
IN PLACE WILL YIELD A RATHER WARM NIGHT TONIGHT.

AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL ADVECT EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
ARKANSAS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE WESTERLIES TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. WITH 700MB TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF +12 TO +14C...THERE WILL
BE A STOUT CAP IN PLACE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANY STORMS WHICH
DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST FOR TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH
IN OUR DIRECTION ON MONDAY...SLOWING AS IT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. DUE TO THE STRONG CAP...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
TILL LATE AFTERNOON...CLOSER TO 00Z...BEFORE STORMS CAN FIRE ALONG
THE FRONT. STORMS WILL FIRE FIRST IN SW MO THEN DOWN INTO SE KS
AND N CNTRL OK WITH TIME. THE BEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
WITH THE INITIAL AND DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT...BEFORE STORMS LIKELY
CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS AND DROP SOUTH INTO NE OK AND NW AR MONDAY
NIGHT. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
TREND THEM DOWN ON TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY...POSSIBLY CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW REINFORCED BY THEN...STALLS AND THEN STARTS TO RETREAT
NORTH. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE
WARM ADVECTION REGIME NORTH OF THE RETREATING BOUNDARY AND THUS
SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS. RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL END PRECIP CHANCES OVER
OUR REGION FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC RUNS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
THE LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST...SURPRISINGLY. A PROGRESSIVE LOW
AMPLITUDE REGIME SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES...WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
STATES. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE COUNTRY...AND WILL HELP TO ERODE THE
RIDGE WHILE ALSO FORCING A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION. THE DATA
SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A BETTER SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THIS FRONT. ODDS
ARE THAT THE WEEK WILL CLOSE OUT ON A COOLER AND WETTER
NOTE...HOPEFULLY. HIGHS/LOWS WERE LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES NEXT
WEEKEND BACK INTO THE 80S.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  95  75  93 /  10  10  50  40
FSM   73  93  75  92 /  10  10  20  40
MLC   77  93  76  93 /  10   0  20  20
BVO   76  95  71  92 /  10  30  50  40
FYV   71  89  73  86 /  10  20  40  50
BYV   71  91  71  85 /  10  20  50  50
MKO   73  93  75  92 /  10  10  30  40
MIO   74  92  72  88 /  10  30  50  50
F10   75  93  76  93 /  10  10  30  30
HHW   73  94  75  93 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 312046
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
346 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A FAST MOVING VORT MAX WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN WY PER WV
IMAGERY...LOCATED IN THE BASE OF A BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CONUS. WINDS WERE 100KTS
AT JET LEVEL ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE VORT MAX...SO THIS SYSTEM IS
FAIRLY ENERGETIC AND WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT. ANOTHER VORT MAX WAS LOCATED UPSTREAM OFF THE COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE TOMORROW. AT
THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL
KEEP SOUTH WINDS UP TONIGHT...COMBINE THAT WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS
IN PLACE WILL YIELD A RATHER WARM NIGHT TONIGHT.

AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL ADVECT EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
ARKANSAS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE WESTERLIES TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. WITH 700MB TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF +12 TO +14C...THERE WILL
BE A STOUT CAP IN PLACE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANY STORMS WHICH
DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST FOR TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH
IN OUR DIRECTION ON MONDAY...SLOWING AS IT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. DUE TO THE STRONG CAP...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
TILL LATE AFTERNOON...CLOSER TO 00Z...BEFORE STORMS CAN FIRE ALONG
THE FRONT. STORMS WILL FIRE FIRST IN SW MO THEN DOWN INTO SE KS
AND N CNTRL OK WITH TIME. THE BEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
WITH THE INITIAL AND DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT...BEFORE STORMS LIKELY
CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS AND DROP SOUTH INTO NE OK AND NW AR MONDAY
NIGHT. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
TREND THEM DOWN ON TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY...POSSIBLY CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW REINFORCED BY THEN...STALLS AND THEN STARTS TO RETREAT
NORTH. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE
WARM ADVECTION REGIME NORTH OF THE RETREATING BOUNDARY AND THUS
SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS. RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL END PRECIP CHANCES OVER
OUR REGION FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC RUNS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
THE LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST...SURPRISINGLY. A PROGRESSIVE LOW
AMPLITUDE REGIME SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES...WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
STATES. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE COUNTRY...AND WILL HELP TO ERODE THE
RIDGE WHILE ALSO FORCING A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION. THE DATA
SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A BETTER SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THIS FRONT. ODDS
ARE THAT THE WEEK WILL CLOSE OUT ON A COOLER AND WETTER
NOTE...HOPEFULLY. HIGHS/LOWS WERE LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES NEXT
WEEKEND BACK INTO THE 80S.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  95  75  93 /  10  10  50  40
FSM   73  93  75  92 /  10  10  20  40
MLC   77  93  76  93 /  10   0  20  20
BVO   76  95  71  92 /  10  30  50  40
FYV   71  89  73  86 /  10  20  40  50
BYV   71  91  71  85 /  10  20  50  50
MKO   73  93  75  92 /  10  10  30  40
MIO   74  92  72  88 /  10  30  50  50
F10   75  93  76  93 /  10  10  30  30
HHW   73  94  75  93 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 312046
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
346 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A FAST MOVING VORT MAX WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN WY PER WV
IMAGERY...LOCATED IN THE BASE OF A BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CONUS. WINDS WERE 100KTS
AT JET LEVEL ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE VORT MAX...SO THIS SYSTEM IS
FAIRLY ENERGETIC AND WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT. ANOTHER VORT MAX WAS LOCATED UPSTREAM OFF THE COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE TOMORROW. AT
THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL
KEEP SOUTH WINDS UP TONIGHT...COMBINE THAT WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS
IN PLACE WILL YIELD A RATHER WARM NIGHT TONIGHT.

AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL ADVECT EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
ARKANSAS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE WESTERLIES TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. WITH 700MB TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF +12 TO +14C...THERE WILL
BE A STOUT CAP IN PLACE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANY STORMS WHICH
DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST FOR TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH
IN OUR DIRECTION ON MONDAY...SLOWING AS IT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. DUE TO THE STRONG CAP...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
TILL LATE AFTERNOON...CLOSER TO 00Z...BEFORE STORMS CAN FIRE ALONG
THE FRONT. STORMS WILL FIRE FIRST IN SW MO THEN DOWN INTO SE KS
AND N CNTRL OK WITH TIME. THE BEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
WITH THE INITIAL AND DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT...BEFORE STORMS LIKELY
CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS AND DROP SOUTH INTO NE OK AND NW AR MONDAY
NIGHT. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
TREND THEM DOWN ON TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY...POSSIBLY CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW REINFORCED BY THEN...STALLS AND THEN STARTS TO RETREAT
NORTH. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE
WARM ADVECTION REGIME NORTH OF THE RETREATING BOUNDARY AND THUS
SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS. RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL END PRECIP CHANCES OVER
OUR REGION FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC RUNS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
THE LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST...SURPRISINGLY. A PROGRESSIVE LOW
AMPLITUDE REGIME SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES...WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
STATES. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE COUNTRY...AND WILL HELP TO ERODE THE
RIDGE WHILE ALSO FORCING A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION. THE DATA
SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A BETTER SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THIS FRONT. ODDS
ARE THAT THE WEEK WILL CLOSE OUT ON A COOLER AND WETTER
NOTE...HOPEFULLY. HIGHS/LOWS WERE LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES NEXT
WEEKEND BACK INTO THE 80S.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  95  75  93 /  10  10  50  40
FSM   73  93  75  92 /  10  10  20  40
MLC   77  93  76  93 /  10   0  20  20
BVO   76  95  71  92 /  10  30  50  40
FYV   71  89  73  86 /  10  20  40  50
BYV   71  91  71  85 /  10  20  50  50
MKO   73  93  75  92 /  10  10  30  40
MIO   74  92  72  88 /  10  30  50  50
F10   75  93  76  93 /  10  10  30  30
HHW   73  94  75  93 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 312046
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
346 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A FAST MOVING VORT MAX WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN WY PER WV
IMAGERY...LOCATED IN THE BASE OF A BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CONUS. WINDS WERE 100KTS
AT JET LEVEL ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE VORT MAX...SO THIS SYSTEM IS
FAIRLY ENERGETIC AND WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT. ANOTHER VORT MAX WAS LOCATED UPSTREAM OFF THE COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE TOMORROW. AT
THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL
KEEP SOUTH WINDS UP TONIGHT...COMBINE THAT WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS
IN PLACE WILL YIELD A RATHER WARM NIGHT TONIGHT.

AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL ADVECT EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
ARKANSAS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE WESTERLIES TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. WITH 700MB TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF +12 TO +14C...THERE WILL
BE A STOUT CAP IN PLACE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANY STORMS WHICH
DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST FOR TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH
IN OUR DIRECTION ON MONDAY...SLOWING AS IT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. DUE TO THE STRONG CAP...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
TILL LATE AFTERNOON...CLOSER TO 00Z...BEFORE STORMS CAN FIRE ALONG
THE FRONT. STORMS WILL FIRE FIRST IN SW MO THEN DOWN INTO SE KS
AND N CNTRL OK WITH TIME. THE BEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
WITH THE INITIAL AND DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT...BEFORE STORMS LIKELY
CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS AND DROP SOUTH INTO NE OK AND NW AR MONDAY
NIGHT. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
TREND THEM DOWN ON TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY...POSSIBLY CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW REINFORCED BY THEN...STALLS AND THEN STARTS TO RETREAT
NORTH. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE
WARM ADVECTION REGIME NORTH OF THE RETREATING BOUNDARY AND THUS
SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS. RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL END PRECIP CHANCES OVER
OUR REGION FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC RUNS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
THE LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST...SURPRISINGLY. A PROGRESSIVE LOW
AMPLITUDE REGIME SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES...WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
STATES. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE COUNTRY...AND WILL HELP TO ERODE THE
RIDGE WHILE ALSO FORCING A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION. THE DATA
SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A BETTER SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THIS FRONT. ODDS
ARE THAT THE WEEK WILL CLOSE OUT ON A COOLER AND WETTER
NOTE...HOPEFULLY. HIGHS/LOWS WERE LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES NEXT
WEEKEND BACK INTO THE 80S.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  95  75  93 /  10  10  50  40
FSM   73  93  75  92 /  10  10  20  40
MLC   77  93  76  93 /  10   0  20  20
BVO   76  95  71  92 /  10  30  50  40
FYV   71  89  73  86 /  10  20  40  50
BYV   71  91  71  85 /  10  20  50  50
MKO   73  93  75  92 /  10  10  30  40
MIO   74  92  72  88 /  10  30  50  50
F10   75  93  76  93 /  10  10  30  30
HHW   73  94  75  93 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30





000
FXUS64 KOUN 311811
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
111 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK WILL BE VERY HOT AND HUMID WHEN HEAT INDEX
VALUES RANGE 100 TO 105. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE JULY THAN EARLY
SEPTEMBER. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
LATER MONDAY AND STALL. ALTHOUGH THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
NORTH OF OKLAHOMA, A WEAK WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS KANSAS
MONDAY NIGHT AND RAIN AND THUNDER IS LIKELY THERE. SOME OF THIS
IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT. THIS FRONT MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY BEFORE RETURNING NORTH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY, RAIN CHANCES ARE VERY LOW UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. A STRONG MID-SUMMER LIKE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
OVER OK. A WEAK FRONT MAY MOVE INTO OK DURING NEXT WEEKEND WHICH
WOULD BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN. HOWEVER, THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE AND THE TRACK OF THE WESTERLIES SO FAR NORTH OF OKLAHOMA
CURRENTLY GIVE LOW CONFIDENCE TO WEEKEND RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  97  74  95 /  10  10  20  20
HOBART OK         74  99  75  97 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  77 100  76  98 /  10  10   0  10
GAGE OK           72  93  68  94 /  20  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     76  96  70  92 /  20  20  60  40
DURANT OK         74  96  75  95 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 311811
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
111 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK WILL BE VERY HOT AND HUMID WHEN HEAT INDEX
VALUES RANGE 100 TO 105. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE JULY THAN EARLY
SEPTEMBER. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
LATER MONDAY AND STALL. ALTHOUGH THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
NORTH OF OKLAHOMA, A WEAK WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS KANSAS
MONDAY NIGHT AND RAIN AND THUNDER IS LIKELY THERE. SOME OF THIS
IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT. THIS FRONT MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY BEFORE RETURNING NORTH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY, RAIN CHANCES ARE VERY LOW UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. A STRONG MID-SUMMER LIKE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
OVER OK. A WEAK FRONT MAY MOVE INTO OK DURING NEXT WEEKEND WHICH
WOULD BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN. HOWEVER, THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE AND THE TRACK OF THE WESTERLIES SO FAR NORTH OF OKLAHOMA
CURRENTLY GIVE LOW CONFIDENCE TO WEEKEND RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  97  74  95 /  10  10  20  20
HOBART OK         74  99  75  97 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  77 100  76  98 /  10  10   0  10
GAGE OK           72  93  68  94 /  20  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     76  96  70  92 /  20  20  60  40
DURANT OK         74  96  75  95 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09



000
FXUS64 KTSA 311745
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER THUNDERSTORMS
FROM KANSAS MAY SLIDE NEAR OR ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN OK
BORDER AFTER ABOUT 09Z THROUGH AROUND 14Z. VCTS INCLUDED
IN KBVO TAF WITHIN THAT PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS FOR THIS MORNINGS UPDATE. UPDATED
PRODUCTS SENT.
GW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR ALL SITES. ANY LATE
NIGHT CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH OF NE OK SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TODAY ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON
LABOR DAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS AND PUSHES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE IT
RETURNS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR DURING
THIS TIME-FRAME COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL THE CONCERN.

UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  94  76  93 /  10  10  50  40
FSM   73  92  75  92 /  10  10  20  40
MLC   76  92  77  93 /  10   0  20  20
BVO   75  95  74  92 /  10  30  50  40
FYV   71  88  71  86 /  10  20  40  50
BYV   71  88  72  86 /  10  20  50  50
MKO   73  92  74  92 /  10  10  30  40
MIO   74  91  73  89 /  10  30  50  50
F10   75  92  76  93 /  10  10  30  30
HHW   73  91  74  93 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...21





000
FXUS64 KTSA 311745
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER THUNDERSTORMS
FROM KANSAS MAY SLIDE NEAR OR ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN OK
BORDER AFTER ABOUT 09Z THROUGH AROUND 14Z. VCTS INCLUDED
IN KBVO TAF WITHIN THAT PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS FOR THIS MORNINGS UPDATE. UPDATED
PRODUCTS SENT.
GW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR ALL SITES. ANY LATE
NIGHT CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH OF NE OK SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TODAY ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON
LABOR DAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS AND PUSHES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE IT
RETURNS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR DURING
THIS TIME-FRAME COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL THE CONCERN.

UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  94  76  93 /  10  10  50  40
FSM   73  92  75  92 /  10  10  20  40
MLC   76  92  77  93 /  10   0  20  20
BVO   75  95  74  92 /  10  30  50  40
FYV   71  88  71  86 /  10  20  40  50
BYV   71  88  72  86 /  10  20  50  50
MKO   73  92  74  92 /  10  10  30  40
MIO   74  91  73  89 /  10  30  50  50
F10   75  92  76  93 /  10  10  30  30
HHW   73  91  74  93 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...21






000
FXUS64 KOUN 311730
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, BUT LESSEN IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AFTER 011500 WHEN A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...
31/12Z TAFS...SCT HIGH BASED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH W
OK EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITIN A FEW HOURS AND SHOULD
NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT. OTRW...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME FAIRLY STRONG BY MID MORNING AND
REMAIN BRISK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
BAND OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD S/W
TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WAS MOVING INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN OK. WILL SPREAD POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AND NORTH FOR
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HI RES MODELS SHOW THIS PRECIP AREA
DIMINISHING BY MID MORNING AS S/W TROUGH LIFTS NEWD AND THUS WILL
LIMIT POPS TO THE MORNING. MAIN S/W TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING
INTO NW OK LATER TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA BUT SOME ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD INTO
FAR NRN OK AND WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW PRECIP CHANCES THERE.

SURFACE FRONT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO NRN OK BEFORE STALLING ON
MONDAY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE MONDAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT WITH BETTER CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTS
WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AGAIN BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN
OVER NORTHERN OK WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.

SOME PRECIP MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY BUT DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS RESIDUAL SURFACE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH
AND UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD. DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AS AREA REMAINS UNDER
INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGE.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE TOWARD THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEW ECMWF MORE
AGRESSIVE WITH FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION WHILE GFS KEEPS MORE
RIDGING ALOFT AND FRONT FARTHER NORTH. FOR NOW WILL NOT MAKE BIG
CHANGES AND LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES TO NRN PARTS OF THE FA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  97  74  95 /  10  10  20  20
HOBART OK         74  99  75  97 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  77 100  76  98 /  10  10   0  10
GAGE OK           72  93  68  94 /  20  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     76  96  70  92 /  20  20  50  40
DURANT OK         74  96  75  95 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09/09



000
FXUS64 KTSA 311549
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1049 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS FOR THIS MORNINGS UPDATE. UPDATED
PRODUCTS SENT.
GW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR ALL SITES. ANY LATE
NIGHT CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH OF NE OK SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TODAY ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON
LABOR DAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS AND PUSHES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE IT
RETURNS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR DURING
THIS TIME-FRAME COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL THE CONCERN.

UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   96  76  94  76 /  10  10  20  30
FSM   93  73  92  75 /  10  10  10  20
MLC   92  76  92  77 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   96  75  95  74 /  10  10  20  40
FYV   90  71  88  71 /  10  10  10  20
BYV   91  71  88  72 /  10  10  10  20
MKO   92  73  92  74 /  10  10  10  20
MIO   93  74  91  73 /  10  10  30  40
F10   94  75  92  76 /  10  10  10  20
HHW   92  73  91  74 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....30






000
FXUS64 KTSA 311549
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1049 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS FOR THIS MORNINGS UPDATE. UPDATED
PRODUCTS SENT.
GW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR ALL SITES. ANY LATE
NIGHT CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH OF NE OK SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TODAY ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON
LABOR DAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS AND PUSHES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE IT
RETURNS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR DURING
THIS TIME-FRAME COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL THE CONCERN.

UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   96  76  94  76 /  10  10  20  30
FSM   93  73  92  75 /  10  10  10  20
MLC   92  76  92  77 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   96  75  95  74 /  10  10  20  40
FYV   90  71  88  71 /  10  10  10  20
BYV   91  71  88  72 /  10  10  10  20
MKO   92  73  92  74 /  10  10  10  20
MIO   93  74  91  73 /  10  10  30  40
F10   94  75  92  76 /  10  10  10  20
HHW   92  73  91  74 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 311127
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
627 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR ALL SITES. ANY LATE
NIGHT CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH OF NE OK SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TODAY ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON
LABOR DAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS AND PUSHES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE IT
RETURNS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR DURING
THIS TIME-FRAME COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL THE CONCERN.

UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   96  76  94  76 /  10  10  20  30
FSM   92  73  92  75 /  10  10  10  20
MLC   92  76  92  77 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   97  75  95  74 /  10  10  20  40
FYV   87  71  88  71 /  10  10  10  20
BYV   90  71  88  72 /  10  10  10  20
MKO   92  73  92  74 /  10  10  10  20
MIO   93  74  91  73 /  10  10  30  40
F10   94  75  92  76 /  10  10  10  20
HHW   92  73  91  74 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07





000
FXUS64 KTSA 311127
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
627 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR ALL SITES. ANY LATE
NIGHT CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH OF NE OK SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TODAY ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON
LABOR DAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS AND PUSHES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE IT
RETURNS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR DURING
THIS TIME-FRAME COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL THE CONCERN.

UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   96  76  94  76 /  10  10  20  30
FSM   92  73  92  75 /  10  10  10  20
MLC   92  76  92  77 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   97  75  95  74 /  10  10  20  40
FYV   87  71  88  71 /  10  10  10  20
BYV   90  71  88  72 /  10  10  10  20
MKO   92  73  92  74 /  10  10  10  20
MIO   93  74  91  73 /  10  10  30  40
F10   94  75  92  76 /  10  10  10  20
HHW   92  73  91  74 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07






000
FXUS64 KOUN 311123
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
615 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
31/12Z TAFS...SCT HIGH BASED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH W
OK EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITIN A FEW HOURS AND SHOULD
NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT. OTRW...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME FAIRLY STRONG BY MID MORNING AND
REMAIN BRISK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
BAND OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD S/W
TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WAS MOVING INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN OK. WILL SPREAD POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AND NORTH FOR
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HI RES MODELS SHOW THIS PRECIP AREA
DIMINISHING BY MID MORNING AS S/W TROUGH LIFTS NEWD AND THUS WILL
LIMIT POPS TO THE MORNING. MAIN S/W TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING
INTO NW OK LATER TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA BUT SOME ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD INTO
FAR NRN OK AND WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW PRECIP CHANCES THERE.

SURFACE FRONT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO NRN OK BEFORE STALLING ON
MONDAY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE MONDAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT WITH BETTER CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTS
WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AGAIN BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN
OVER NORTHERN OK WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.

SOME PRECIP MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY BUT DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS RESIDUAL SURFACE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH
AND UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD. DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AS AREA REMAINS UNDER
INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGE.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE TOWARD THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEW ECMWF MORE
AGRESSIVE WITH FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION WHILE GFS KEEPS MORE
RIDGING ALOFT AND FRONT FARTHER NORTH. FOR NOW WILL NOT MAKE BIG
CHANGES AND LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES TO NRN PARTS OF THE FA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  75  97  74 /  10  10  10  20
HOBART OK         99  74  99  75 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  99  77 100  76 /   0  10  10   0
GAGE OK           98  72  93  68 /  20  20  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     96  76  96  70 /  10  20  20  50
DURANT OK         94  74  96  75 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/02



000
FXUS64 KOUN 311123
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
615 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
31/12Z TAFS...SCT HIGH BASED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH W
OK EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITIN A FEW HOURS AND SHOULD
NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT. OTRW...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME FAIRLY STRONG BY MID MORNING AND
REMAIN BRISK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
BAND OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD S/W
TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WAS MOVING INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN OK. WILL SPREAD POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AND NORTH FOR
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HI RES MODELS SHOW THIS PRECIP AREA
DIMINISHING BY MID MORNING AS S/W TROUGH LIFTS NEWD AND THUS WILL
LIMIT POPS TO THE MORNING. MAIN S/W TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING
INTO NW OK LATER TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA BUT SOME ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD INTO
FAR NRN OK AND WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW PRECIP CHANCES THERE.

SURFACE FRONT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO NRN OK BEFORE STALLING ON
MONDAY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE MONDAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT WITH BETTER CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTS
WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AGAIN BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN
OVER NORTHERN OK WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.

SOME PRECIP MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY BUT DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS RESIDUAL SURFACE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH
AND UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD. DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AS AREA REMAINS UNDER
INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGE.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE TOWARD THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEW ECMWF MORE
AGRESSIVE WITH FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION WHILE GFS KEEPS MORE
RIDGING ALOFT AND FRONT FARTHER NORTH. FOR NOW WILL NOT MAKE BIG
CHANGES AND LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES TO NRN PARTS OF THE FA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  75  97  74 /  10  10  10  20
HOBART OK         99  74  99  75 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  99  77 100  76 /   0  10  10   0
GAGE OK           98  72  93  68 /  20  20  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     96  76  96  70 /  10  20  20  50
DURANT OK         94  74  96  75 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/02




000
FXUS64 KOUN 310905
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
405 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
BAND OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD S/W
TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WAS MOVING INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN OK. WILL SPREAD POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AND NORTH FOR
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HI RES MODELS SHOW THIS PRECIP AREA
DIMINISHING BY MID MORNING AS S/W TROUGH LIFTS NEWD AND THUS WILL
LIMIT POPS TO THE MORNING. MAIN S/W TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING
INTO NW OK LATER TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA BUT SOME ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD INTO
FAR NRN OK AND WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW PRECIP CHANCES THERE.

SURFACE FRONT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO NRN OK BEFORE STALLING ON
MONDAY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE MONDAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT WITH BETTER CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTS
WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AGAIN BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN
OVER NORTHERN OK WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.

SOME PRECIP MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY BUT DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS RESIDUAL SURFACE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH
AND UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD. DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AS AREA REMAINS UNDER
INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGE.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE TOWARD THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEW ECMWF MORE
AGRESSIVE WITH FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION WHILE GFS KEEPS MORE
RIDGING ALOFT AND FRONT FARTHER NORTH. FOR NOW WILL NOT MAKE BIG
CHANGES AND LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES TO NRN PARTS OF THE FA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  75  97  74 /  10  10  10  20
HOBART OK         99  74  99  75 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  99  77 100  76 /   0  10  10   0
GAGE OK           98  72  93  68 /  20  20  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     96  76  96  70 /  10  20  20  50
DURANT OK         94  74  96  75 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/02



000
FXUS64 KOUN 310905
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
405 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
BAND OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD S/W
TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WAS MOVING INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN OK. WILL SPREAD POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AND NORTH FOR
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HI RES MODELS SHOW THIS PRECIP AREA
DIMINISHING BY MID MORNING AS S/W TROUGH LIFTS NEWD AND THUS WILL
LIMIT POPS TO THE MORNING. MAIN S/W TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING
INTO NW OK LATER TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA BUT SOME ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD INTO
FAR NRN OK AND WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW PRECIP CHANCES THERE.

SURFACE FRONT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO NRN OK BEFORE STALLING ON
MONDAY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE MONDAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT WITH BETTER CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTS
WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AGAIN BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN
OVER NORTHERN OK WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.

SOME PRECIP MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY BUT DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS RESIDUAL SURFACE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH
AND UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD. DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AS AREA REMAINS UNDER
INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGE.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE TOWARD THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEW ECMWF MORE
AGRESSIVE WITH FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION WHILE GFS KEEPS MORE
RIDGING ALOFT AND FRONT FARTHER NORTH. FOR NOW WILL NOT MAKE BIG
CHANGES AND LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES TO NRN PARTS OF THE FA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  75  97  74 /  10  10  10  20
HOBART OK         99  74  99  75 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  99  77 100  76 /   0  10  10   0
GAGE OK           98  72  93  68 /  20  20  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     96  76  96  70 /  10  20  20  50
DURANT OK         94  74  96  75 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/02




000
FXUS64 KTSA 310814
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
314 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TODAY ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON
LABOR DAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS AND PUSHES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE IT
RETURNS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR DURING
THIS TIME-FRAME COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL THE CONCERN.

UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   96  76  94  76 /  10  10  20  30
FSM   92  73  92  75 /  10  10  10  20
MLC   92  76  92  77 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   97  75  95  74 /  10  10  20  40
FYV   87  71  88  71 /  10  10  10  20
BYV   90  71  88  72 /  10  10  10  20
MKO   92  73  92  74 /  10  10  10  20
MIO   93  74  91  73 /  10  10  30  40
F10   94  75  92  76 /  10  10  10  20
HHW   92  73  91  74 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 310814
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
314 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TODAY ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON
LABOR DAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS AND PUSHES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE IT
RETURNS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR DURING
THIS TIME-FRAME COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL THE CONCERN.

UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   96  76  94  76 /  10  10  20  30
FSM   92  73  92  75 /  10  10  10  20
MLC   92  76  92  77 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   97  75  95  74 /  10  10  20  40
FYV   87  71  88  71 /  10  10  10  20
BYV   90  71  88  72 /  10  10  10  20
MKO   92  73  92  74 /  10  10  10  20
MIO   93  74  91  73 /  10  10  30  40
F10   94  75  92  76 /  10  10  10  20
HHW   92  73  91  74 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 310814
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
314 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TODAY ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON
LABOR DAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS AND PUSHES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE IT
RETURNS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR DURING
THIS TIME-FRAME COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL THE CONCERN.

UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   96  76  94  76 /  10  10  20  30
FSM   92  73  92  75 /  10  10  10  20
MLC   92  76  92  77 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   97  75  95  74 /  10  10  20  40
FYV   87  71  88  71 /  10  10  10  20
BYV   90  71  88  72 /  10  10  10  20
MKO   92  73  92  74 /  10  10  10  20
MIO   93  74  91  73 /  10  10  30  40
F10   94  75  92  76 /  10  10  10  20
HHW   92  73  91  74 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 310814
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
314 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TODAY ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON
LABOR DAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS AND PUSHES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE IT
RETURNS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR DURING
THIS TIME-FRAME COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL THE CONCERN.

UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   96  76  94  76 /  10  10  20  30
FSM   92  73  92  75 /  10  10  10  20
MLC   92  76  92  77 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   97  75  95  74 /  10  10  20  40
FYV   87  71  88  71 /  10  10  10  20
BYV   90  71  88  72 /  10  10  10  20
MKO   92  73  92  74 /  10  10  10  20
MIO   93  74  91  73 /  10  10  30  40
F10   94  75  92  76 /  10  10  10  20
HHW   92  73  91  74 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 310448
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1148 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
A FEW AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT FOR THE AR
TAF SITES...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 857 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MUCH OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON HAS
WANED BUT A FEW CELLS HAVE REDEVELOPED IN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR
MASS THAT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PREVIOUS FORECAST
INCLUDED VERY LOW POPS ACROSS ERN HALF OF CWA FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WE DO NOT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE MUCH COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT BUT PROBABLY A NONZERO CHANCE SO NOT MUCH POINT IN
TAKING OUT SUCH A SMALL POP THAT IS ALREADY THERE. SOME PATCHY
LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT SAW RAIN
TODAY. ALL IN ALL...NO NEED TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO ONGOING
FORECAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  96  78  97 /   0   0  10  20
FSM   72  93  75  96 /  10  10   0  10
MLC   72  93  77  94 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   66  96  75  96 /   0   0  10  30
FYV   64  91  73  91 /  20   0  10  20
BYV   67  90  72  92 /  20   0  10  30
MKO   70  93  75  94 /  10   0  10  20
MIO   70  93  75  94 /  10   0  10  30
F10   71  93  76  95 /  10   0   0  10
HHW   71  92  74  95 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 310448
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1148 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
A FEW AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT FOR THE AR
TAF SITES...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 857 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MUCH OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON HAS
WANED BUT A FEW CELLS HAVE REDEVELOPED IN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR
MASS THAT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PREVIOUS FORECAST
INCLUDED VERY LOW POPS ACROSS ERN HALF OF CWA FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WE DO NOT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE MUCH COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT BUT PROBABLY A NONZERO CHANCE SO NOT MUCH POINT IN
TAKING OUT SUCH A SMALL POP THAT IS ALREADY THERE. SOME PATCHY
LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT SAW RAIN
TODAY. ALL IN ALL...NO NEED TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO ONGOING
FORECAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  96  78  97 /   0   0  10  20
FSM   72  93  75  96 /  10  10   0  10
MLC   72  93  77  94 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   66  96  75  96 /   0   0  10  30
FYV   64  91  73  91 /  20   0  10  20
BYV   67  90  72  92 /  20   0  10  30
MKO   70  93  75  94 /  10   0  10  20
MIO   70  93  75  94 /  10   0  10  30
F10   71  93  76  95 /  10   0   0  10
HHW   71  92  74  95 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 310448
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1148 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
A FEW AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT FOR THE AR
TAF SITES...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 857 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MUCH OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON HAS
WANED BUT A FEW CELLS HAVE REDEVELOPED IN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR
MASS THAT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PREVIOUS FORECAST
INCLUDED VERY LOW POPS ACROSS ERN HALF OF CWA FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WE DO NOT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE MUCH COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT BUT PROBABLY A NONZERO CHANCE SO NOT MUCH POINT IN
TAKING OUT SUCH A SMALL POP THAT IS ALREADY THERE. SOME PATCHY
LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT SAW RAIN
TODAY. ALL IN ALL...NO NEED TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO ONGOING
FORECAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  96  78  97 /   0   0  10  20
FSM   72  93  75  96 /  10  10   0  10
MLC   72  93  77  94 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   66  96  75  96 /   0   0  10  30
FYV   64  91  73  91 /  20   0  10  20
BYV   67  90  72  92 /  20   0  10  30
MKO   70  93  75  94 /  10   0  10  20
MIO   70  93  75  94 /  10   0  10  30
F10   71  93  76  95 /  10   0   0  10
HHW   71  92  74  95 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 310448
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1148 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
A FEW AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT FOR THE AR
TAF SITES...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 857 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MUCH OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON HAS
WANED BUT A FEW CELLS HAVE REDEVELOPED IN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR
MASS THAT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PREVIOUS FORECAST
INCLUDED VERY LOW POPS ACROSS ERN HALF OF CWA FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WE DO NOT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE MUCH COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT BUT PROBABLY A NONZERO CHANCE SO NOT MUCH POINT IN
TAKING OUT SUCH A SMALL POP THAT IS ALREADY THERE. SOME PATCHY
LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT SAW RAIN
TODAY. ALL IN ALL...NO NEED TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO ONGOING
FORECAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  96  78  97 /   0   0  10  20
FSM   72  93  75  96 /  10  10   0  10
MLC   72  93  77  94 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   66  96  75  96 /   0   0  10  30
FYV   64  91  73  91 /  20   0  10  20
BYV   67  90  72  92 /  20   0  10  30
MKO   70  93  75  94 /  10   0  10  20
MIO   70  93  75  94 /  10   0  10  30
F10   71  93  76  95 /  10   0   0  10
HHW   71  92  74  95 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...18






000
FXUS64 KOUN 310359
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1059 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VERY LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LAST SET OF TAFS. STILL
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW AND
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME CIRRUS MOVING OVER W/NW
OK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THEN INTO CENTRAL OK DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  95  73  96 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         71  98  73  99 /  10   0  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  99  74 100 /  10   0  10  10
GAGE OK           69  97  71  94 /  20  10  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     71  95  76  93 /  10  10  20  20
DURANT OK         72  93  74  96 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/03/03



000
FXUS64 KOUN 310359
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1059 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VERY LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LAST SET OF TAFS. STILL
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW AND
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME CIRRUS MOVING OVER W/NW
OK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THEN INTO CENTRAL OK DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  95  73  96 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         71  98  73  99 /  10   0  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  99  74 100 /  10   0  10  10
GAGE OK           69  97  71  94 /  20  10  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     71  95  76  93 /  10  10  20  20
DURANT OK         72  93  74  96 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/03/03



000
FXUS64 KOUN 310359
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1059 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VERY LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LAST SET OF TAFS. STILL
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW AND
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME CIRRUS MOVING OVER W/NW
OK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THEN INTO CENTRAL OK DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  95  73  96 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         71  98  73  99 /  10   0  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  99  74 100 /  10   0  10  10
GAGE OK           69  97  71  94 /  20  10  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     71  95  76  93 /  10  10  20  20
DURANT OK         72  93  74  96 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/03/03



000
FXUS64 KOUN 310359
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1059 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VERY LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LAST SET OF TAFS. STILL
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW AND
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME CIRRUS MOVING OVER W/NW
OK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THEN INTO CENTRAL OK DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  95  73  96 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         71  98  73  99 /  10   0  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  99  74 100 /  10   0  10  10
GAGE OK           69  97  71  94 /  20  10  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     71  95  76  93 /  10  10  20  20
DURANT OK         72  93  74  96 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/03/03



000
FXUS64 KOUN 310201
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
901 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA HAS
WEAKENED OR ENDED...WHILE A FEW STORMS REMAIN OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  A FEW MODELS SUGGEST THAT
SOME SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MUCH STRONGER BY SUNDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
ROCKIES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE NEAR HBR EARLY
THIS EVENING AND ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THIS EVENING. VFR WILL APPLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND EARLY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS TO AROUND 20 KT FROM THE SSW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  95  73  96 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         71  98  73  99 /  10   0  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  99  74 100 /  10   0  10  10
GAGE OK           69  97  71  94 /  20  10  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     71  95  76  93 /  10  10  20  20
DURANT OK         72  93  74  96 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 310201
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
901 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA HAS
WEAKENED OR ENDED...WHILE A FEW STORMS REMAIN OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  A FEW MODELS SUGGEST THAT
SOME SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MUCH STRONGER BY SUNDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
ROCKIES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE NEAR HBR EARLY
THIS EVENING AND ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THIS EVENING. VFR WILL APPLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND EARLY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS TO AROUND 20 KT FROM THE SSW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  95  73  96 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         71  98  73  99 /  10   0  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  99  74 100 /  10   0  10  10
GAGE OK           69  97  71  94 /  20  10  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     71  95  76  93 /  10  10  20  20
DURANT OK         72  93  74  96 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 310157
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
857 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MUCH OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON HAS
WANED BUT A FEW CELLS HAVE REDEVELOPED IN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR
MASS THAT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PREVIOUS FORECAST
INCLUDED VERY LOW POPS ACROSS ERN HALF OF CWA FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WE DO NOT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE MUCH COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT BUT PROBABLY A NONZERO CHANCE SO NOT MUCH POINT IN
TAKING OUT SUCH A SMALL POP THAT IS ALREADY THERE. SOME PATCHY
LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT SAW RAIN
TODAY. ALL IN ALL...NO NEED TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO ONGOING
FORECAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  96  78  97 /   0   0  10  20
FSM   72  93  75  96 /  20  10   0  10
MLC   72  93  77  94 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   66  96  75  96 /   0   0  10  30
FYV   64  91  73  91 /  20   0  10  20
BYV   67  90  72  92 /  20   0  10  30
MKO   70  93  75  94 /  10   0  10  20
MIO   70  93  75  94 /  10   0  10  30
F10   71  93  76  95 /  10   0   0  10
HHW   71  92  74  95 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69





000
FXUS64 KTSA 310157
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
857 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MUCH OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON HAS
WANED BUT A FEW CELLS HAVE REDEVELOPED IN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR
MASS THAT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PREVIOUS FORECAST
INCLUDED VERY LOW POPS ACROSS ERN HALF OF CWA FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WE DO NOT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE MUCH COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT BUT PROBABLY A NONZERO CHANCE SO NOT MUCH POINT IN
TAKING OUT SUCH A SMALL POP THAT IS ALREADY THERE. SOME PATCHY
LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT SAW RAIN
TODAY. ALL IN ALL...NO NEED TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO ONGOING
FORECAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  96  78  97 /   0   0  10  20
FSM   72  93  75  96 /  20  10   0  10
MLC   72  93  77  94 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   66  96  75  96 /   0   0  10  30
FYV   64  91  73  91 /  20   0  10  20
BYV   67  90  72  92 /  20   0  10  30
MKO   70  93  75  94 /  10   0  10  20
MIO   70  93  75  94 /  10   0  10  30
F10   71  93  76  95 /  10   0   0  10
HHW   71  92  74  95 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69




000
FXUS64 KOUN 302341
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
641 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE NEAR HBR EARLY
THIS EVENING AND ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THIS EVENING. VFR WILL APPLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND EARLY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS TO AROUND 20 KT FROM THE SSW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  95  73  96 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         71  98  73  99 /  10   0  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  99  74 100 /  10   0  10  10
GAGE OK           69  97  71  94 /  20  10  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     71  95  76  93 /  10  10  20  20
DURANT OK         72  93  74  96 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/03/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 302341
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
641 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE NEAR HBR EARLY
THIS EVENING AND ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THIS EVENING. VFR WILL APPLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND EARLY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS TO AROUND 20 KT FROM THE SSW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  95  73  96 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         71  98  73  99 /  10   0  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  99  74 100 /  10   0  10  10
GAGE OK           69  97  71  94 /  20  10  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     71  95  76  93 /  10  10  20  20
DURANT OK         72  93  74  96 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/03/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 302341
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
641 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE NEAR HBR EARLY
THIS EVENING AND ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THIS EVENING. VFR WILL APPLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND EARLY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS TO AROUND 20 KT FROM THE SSW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  95  73  96 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         71  98  73  99 /  10   0  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  99  74 100 /  10   0  10  10
GAGE OK           69  97  71  94 /  20  10  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     71  95  76  93 /  10  10  20  20
DURANT OK         72  93  74  96 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/03/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 302341
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
641 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE NEAR HBR EARLY
THIS EVENING AND ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THIS EVENING. VFR WILL APPLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND EARLY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS TO AROUND 20 KT FROM THE SSW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  95  73  96 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         71  98  73  99 /  10   0  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  99  74 100 /  10   0  10  10
GAGE OK           69  97  71  94 /  20  10  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     71  95  76  93 /  10  10  20  20
DURANT OK         72  93  74  96 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/03/03




000
FXUS64 KTSA 302331
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
631 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
CONVECTION GRADUALLY WEAKENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AT THIS TIME AND ANY REMAINING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF FOG AT
THE ARKANSAS TAF SITES...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTION WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME  MORE ISOLATED THIS EVENING  AND  DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT.

DRY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMP.

BROAD TROUGH WILL PUSH  ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT INTO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS LABOR DAY.  THUNDERSTORMS FORMING
ON OR NEAR THAT FRONT  MAY SPILL INTO NORTHEAST OK
AND NORTHWEST AR THE DAY LABOR DAY. AREAS SOUTH OF
I40 STAY DRY.

UPPER FLOW VEERS JUST ENOUGH MONDAY TO BRING DECENT
PRECIP TO NORTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR.  1.75-2.00
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES  SUGGEST A FEW AREAS OF
NORTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR COULD SEE SOME  HEAVY
RAIN.

DRY MIDWEEK TO THE END OF THE WORKWEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  96  78  97 /   0   0  10  20
FSM   72  93  75  96 /  20  10   0  10
MLC   72  93  77  94 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   66  96  75  96 /   0   0  10  30
FYV   64  91  73  91 /  20   0  10  20
BYV   67  90  72  92 /  20   0  10  30
MKO   70  93  75  94 /  10   0  10  20
MIO   70  93  75  94 /  10   0  10  30
F10   71  93  76  95 /  10   0   0  10
HHW   71  92  74  95 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 302331
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
631 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
CONVECTION GRADUALLY WEAKENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AT THIS TIME AND ANY REMAINING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF FOG AT
THE ARKANSAS TAF SITES...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTION WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME  MORE ISOLATED THIS EVENING  AND  DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT.

DRY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMP.

BROAD TROUGH WILL PUSH  ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT INTO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS LABOR DAY.  THUNDERSTORMS FORMING
ON OR NEAR THAT FRONT  MAY SPILL INTO NORTHEAST OK
AND NORTHWEST AR THE DAY LABOR DAY. AREAS SOUTH OF
I40 STAY DRY.

UPPER FLOW VEERS JUST ENOUGH MONDAY TO BRING DECENT
PRECIP TO NORTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR.  1.75-2.00
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES  SUGGEST A FEW AREAS OF
NORTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR COULD SEE SOME  HEAVY
RAIN.

DRY MIDWEEK TO THE END OF THE WORKWEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  96  78  97 /   0   0  10  20
FSM   72  93  75  96 /  20  10   0  10
MLC   72  93  77  94 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   66  96  75  96 /   0   0  10  30
FYV   64  91  73  91 /  20   0  10  20
BYV   67  90  72  92 /  20   0  10  30
MKO   70  93  75  94 /  10   0  10  20
MIO   70  93  75  94 /  10   0  10  30
F10   71  93  76  95 /  10   0   0  10
HHW   71  92  74  95 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18





000
FXUS64 KTSA 302116
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
416 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTION WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME  MORE ISOLATED THIS EVENING  AND  DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT.

DRY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMP.

BROAD TROUGH WILL PUSH  ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT INTO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS LABOR DAY.  THUNDERSTORMS FORMING
ON OR NEAR THAT FRONT  MAY SPILL INTO NORTHEAST OK
AND NORTHWEST AR THE DAY LABOR DAY. AREAS SOUTH OF
I40 STAY DRY.

UPPER FLOW VEERS JUST ENOUGH MONDAY TO BRING DECENT
PRECIP TO NORTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR.  1.75-2.00
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES  SUGGEST A FEW AREAS OF
NORTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR COULD SEE SOME  HEAVY
RAIN.

DRY MIDWEEK TO THE END OF THE WORKWEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  96  78  97 /   0   0  10  20
FSM   72  93  75  96 /  20  10   0  10
MLC   72  93  77  94 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   66  96  75  96 /   0   0  10  30
FYV   64  91  73  91 /  20   0  10  20
BYV   67  90  72  92 /  20   0  10  30
MKO   70  93  75  94 /  10   0  10  20
MIO   70  93  75  94 /  10   0  10  30
F10   71  93  76  95 /  10   0   0  10
HHW   71  92  74  95 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....21





000
FXUS64 KTSA 302116
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
416 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTION WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME  MORE ISOLATED THIS EVENING  AND  DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT.

DRY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMP.

BROAD TROUGH WILL PUSH  ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT INTO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS LABOR DAY.  THUNDERSTORMS FORMING
ON OR NEAR THAT FRONT  MAY SPILL INTO NORTHEAST OK
AND NORTHWEST AR THE DAY LABOR DAY. AREAS SOUTH OF
I40 STAY DRY.

UPPER FLOW VEERS JUST ENOUGH MONDAY TO BRING DECENT
PRECIP TO NORTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR.  1.75-2.00
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES  SUGGEST A FEW AREAS OF
NORTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR COULD SEE SOME  HEAVY
RAIN.

DRY MIDWEEK TO THE END OF THE WORKWEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  96  78  97 /   0   0  10  20
FSM   72  93  75  96 /  20  10   0  10
MLC   72  93  77  94 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   66  96  75  96 /   0   0  10  30
FYV   64  91  73  91 /  20   0  10  20
BYV   67  90  72  92 /  20   0  10  30
MKO   70  93  75  94 /  10   0  10  20
MIO   70  93  75  94 /  10   0  10  30
F10   71  93  76  95 /  10   0   0  10
HHW   71  92  74  95 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....21






000
FXUS64 KOUN 301910
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
210 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL SUNSET
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TODAY. A WEAK AND PASSING MID-LEVEL WAVE
SHOULD BRING AN END TO THOSE CHANCES LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
COMING WEEK WILL BE EXCEPTIONALLY HOT AND HUMID, MORE TYPICAL FOR
LATE JULY RATHER THAN EARLY SEPTEMBER. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS, AND HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL
EXCEED 100. A MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A WEAK FRONT INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS AREA WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR RAIN LATER
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEAR THE FRONT AND PASSING WAVE; OTHERWISE A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER OK FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  95  73  96 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         71  98  73  99 /  10   0  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  99  74 100 /  10   0  10  10
GAGE OK           69  97  71  94 /  20  10  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     71  95  76  93 /  10  10  20  20
DURANT OK         72  93  74  96 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/09



000
FXUS64 KOUN 301910
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
210 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL SUNSET
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TODAY. A WEAK AND PASSING MID-LEVEL WAVE
SHOULD BRING AN END TO THOSE CHANCES LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
COMING WEEK WILL BE EXCEPTIONALLY HOT AND HUMID, MORE TYPICAL FOR
LATE JULY RATHER THAN EARLY SEPTEMBER. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS, AND HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL
EXCEED 100. A MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A WEAK FRONT INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS AREA WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR RAIN LATER
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEAR THE FRONT AND PASSING WAVE; OTHERWISE A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER OK FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  95  73  96 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         71  98  73  99 /  10   0  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  99  74 100 /  10   0  10  10
GAGE OK           69  97  71  94 /  20  10  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     71  95  76  93 /  10  10  20  20
DURANT OK         72  93  74  96 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/09



000
FXUS64 KOUN 301910
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
210 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL SUNSET
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TODAY. A WEAK AND PASSING MID-LEVEL WAVE
SHOULD BRING AN END TO THOSE CHANCES LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
COMING WEEK WILL BE EXCEPTIONALLY HOT AND HUMID, MORE TYPICAL FOR
LATE JULY RATHER THAN EARLY SEPTEMBER. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS, AND HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL
EXCEED 100. A MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A WEAK FRONT INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS AREA WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR RAIN LATER
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEAR THE FRONT AND PASSING WAVE; OTHERWISE A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER OK FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  95  73  96 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         71  98  73  99 /  10   0  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  99  74 100 /  10   0  10  10
GAGE OK           69  97  71  94 /  20  10  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     71  95  76  93 /  10  10  20  20
DURANT OK         72  93  74  96 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/09



000
FXUS64 KOUN 301910
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
210 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL SUNSET
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TODAY. A WEAK AND PASSING MID-LEVEL WAVE
SHOULD BRING AN END TO THOSE CHANCES LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
COMING WEEK WILL BE EXCEPTIONALLY HOT AND HUMID, MORE TYPICAL FOR
LATE JULY RATHER THAN EARLY SEPTEMBER. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS, AND HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL
EXCEED 100. A MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A WEAK FRONT INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS AREA WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR RAIN LATER
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEAR THE FRONT AND PASSING WAVE; OTHERWISE A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER OK FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  95  73  96 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         71  98  73  99 /  10   0  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  99  74 100 /  10   0  10  10
GAGE OK           69  97  71  94 /  20  10  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     71  95  76  93 /  10  10  20  20
DURANT OK         72  93  74  96 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/09



000
FXUS64 KOUN 301746
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1246 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHEAST OF ADA AND HOLDENVILLE UNTIL SUNSET TODAY. OTHERWISE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

UPDATE...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST. MAY STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NEAR WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY AND DEPARTING MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.
HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN IF STORMS CAN
FORM...PRIMARILY IN THE DURANT AND ATOKA AREAS ON EAST.

ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS MAY FORM OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...NEAR SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
ROCKIES S/WV AND MID-LEVEL MOIST AXIS...AND APPROACH FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ANY ACTIVITY THAT
CAN DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO BODY OF OKLAHOMA SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED
AND NOT POSE ANY SEVERE WEATHER RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  95  73  96 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         71  98  73  99 /  10   0  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  99  74 100 /  10   0  10  10
GAGE OK           69  97  71  94 /  20  10  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     71  95  76  93 /  10  10  20  20
DURANT OK         72  93  74  96 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/09/09



000
FXUS64 KTSA 301732
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1232 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
IN PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME THIS EVENING.  AREAS OF FOG...MOST LIKELY
WHERE IT HAS RAINED...WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  LATER
FORECASTS MAY NEED TO SHOW AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS AT SITES WHERE
RAIN OCCURRED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE OCCURRED THIS
MORNING IN FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS A HEAD OF A
WEAK 700 MB SHORTWAVE AND ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF A PLUME OF DEEP
LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM THE WESTERN GULF.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASE DURING
THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING.  THE MID-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO
TRANSLATE EAST BEING NEAR THE OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS BORDER AT
00Z AND EXTENDING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

THE DEEP MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR WILL KEEP
THE TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE...SO POTENTIAL FOR EVEN AN ISOLATED SEVERE
REPORT SEEMS ALMOST NIL AT THE MOMENT...BUT THE RISK FROM LIGHTNING
SHOULD ALWAYS BE CONSIDERED AROUND STORMS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...08







000
FXUS64 KTSA 301732
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1232 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
IN PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME THIS EVENING.  AREAS OF FOG...MOST LIKELY
WHERE IT HAS RAINED...WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  LATER
FORECASTS MAY NEED TO SHOW AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS AT SITES WHERE
RAIN OCCURRED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE OCCURRED THIS
MORNING IN FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS A HEAD OF A
WEAK 700 MB SHORTWAVE AND ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF A PLUME OF DEEP
LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM THE WESTERN GULF.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASE DURING
THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING.  THE MID-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO
TRANSLATE EAST BEING NEAR THE OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS BORDER AT
00Z AND EXTENDING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

THE DEEP MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR WILL KEEP
THE TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE...SO POTENTIAL FOR EVEN AN ISOLATED SEVERE
REPORT SEEMS ALMOST NIL AT THE MOMENT...BUT THE RISK FROM LIGHTNING
SHOULD ALWAYS BE CONSIDERED AROUND STORMS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...08







000
FXUS64 KTSA 301732
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1232 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
IN PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME THIS EVENING.  AREAS OF FOG...MOST LIKELY
WHERE IT HAS RAINED...WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  LATER
FORECASTS MAY NEED TO SHOW AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS AT SITES WHERE
RAIN OCCURRED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE OCCURRED THIS
MORNING IN FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS A HEAD OF A
WEAK 700 MB SHORTWAVE AND ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF A PLUME OF DEEP
LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM THE WESTERN GULF.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASE DURING
THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING.  THE MID-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO
TRANSLATE EAST BEING NEAR THE OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS BORDER AT
00Z AND EXTENDING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

THE DEEP MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR WILL KEEP
THE TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE...SO POTENTIAL FOR EVEN AN ISOLATED SEVERE
REPORT SEEMS ALMOST NIL AT THE MOMENT...BUT THE RISK FROM LIGHTNING
SHOULD ALWAYS BE CONSIDERED AROUND STORMS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...08







000
FXUS64 KTSA 301732
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1232 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
IN PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME THIS EVENING.  AREAS OF FOG...MOST LIKELY
WHERE IT HAS RAINED...WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  LATER
FORECASTS MAY NEED TO SHOW AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS AT SITES WHERE
RAIN OCCURRED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE OCCURRED THIS
MORNING IN FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS A HEAD OF A
WEAK 700 MB SHORTWAVE AND ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF A PLUME OF DEEP
LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM THE WESTERN GULF.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASE DURING
THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING.  THE MID-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO
TRANSLATE EAST BEING NEAR THE OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS BORDER AT
00Z AND EXTENDING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

THE DEEP MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR WILL KEEP
THE TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE...SO POTENTIAL FOR EVEN AN ISOLATED SEVERE
REPORT SEEMS ALMOST NIL AT THE MOMENT...BUT THE RISK FROM LIGHTNING
SHOULD ALWAYS BE CONSIDERED AROUND STORMS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...08







000
FXUS64 KOUN 301638
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1138 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST. MAY STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NEAR WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY AND DEPARTING MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.
HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN IF STORMS CAN
FORM...PRIMARILY IN THE DURANT AND ATOKA AREAS ON EAST.

ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS MAY FORM OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...NEAR SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
ROCKIES S/WV AND MID-LEVEL MOIST AXIS...AND APPROACH FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ANY ACTIVITY THAT
CAN DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO BODY OF OKLAHOMA SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED
AND NOT POSE ANY SEVERE WEATHER RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  94  71  95  73 /   0  10  10  10
HOBART OK         95  71  98  73 /  10  10   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  73  99  74 /   0  10   0  10
GAGE OK           93  69  97  71 /  20  20  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     92  71  95  76 /   0  10  10  20
DURANT OK         93  72  93  74 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/09




000
FXUS64 KTSA 301548
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1048 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE OCCURRED THIS
MORNING IN FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS A HEAD OF A
WEAK 700 MB SHORTWAVE AND ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF A PLUME OF DEEP
LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM THE WESTERN GULF.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASE DURING
THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING.  THE MID-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO
TRANSLATE EAST BEING NEAR THE OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS BORDER AT
00Z AND EXTENDING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

THE DEEP MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR WILL KEEP
THE TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE...SO POTENTIAL FOR EVEN AN ISOLATED SEVERE
REPORT SEEMS ALMOST NIL AT THE MOMENT...BUT THE RISK FROM LIGHTNING
SHOULD ALWAYS BE CONSIDERED AROUND STORMS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08






000
FXUS64 KTSA 301548
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1048 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE OCCURRED THIS
MORNING IN FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS A HEAD OF A
WEAK 700 MB SHORTWAVE AND ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF A PLUME OF DEEP
LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM THE WESTERN GULF.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASE DURING
THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING.  THE MID-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO
TRANSLATE EAST BEING NEAR THE OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS BORDER AT
00Z AND EXTENDING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

THE DEEP MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR WILL KEEP
THE TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE...SO POTENTIAL FOR EVEN AN ISOLATED SEVERE
REPORT SEEMS ALMOST NIL AT THE MOMENT...BUT THE RISK FROM LIGHTNING
SHOULD ALWAYS BE CONSIDERED AROUND STORMS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08







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