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000
FXUS64 KTSA 250222
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
922 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO
UPDATED PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   59  88  62  88 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   57  86  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   60  87  62  87 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   53  86  55  89 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   54  83  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   58  83  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   57  86  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   56  83  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
F10   59  87  61  87 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   58  87  61  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18





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000
FXUS64 KOUN 242315
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
615 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
25/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
AS AN UPPER HIGH MOVES IN...TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH RECORD LEVELS
THIS WEEKEND. SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST WITH SEVERAL SITES MAKING
IT INTO THE LOWER 90S.

MOVING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL OFF WITH
THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF RAIN. RIGHT NOW...MODELS ARE
SHOWING THIS FRONT STALLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...KEEPING
SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES GOING THROUGH TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER DROP IN
TEMPERATURES AND ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  90  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         59  90  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  92  61  90 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           54  91  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     58  89  61  88 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         60  88  62  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/14




000
FXUS64 KTSA 242301
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
601 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO WEATHER IMPACTS ARE FORESEEN OVER THE WEEKEND.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT - TUES NIGHT.
TIMING: NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 MONDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 44 TUES - TUES NIGHT.

COOLER W/ NO WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED MID - LATE WEEK.

..CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPS / YEAR

TULFSMFYV
10/2591/193988/195084/1950
10/2690/195090/189186/1950
10/2788/192287/199985/1950

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23






000
FXUS64 KTSA 242037
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
337 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO WEATHER IMPACTS ARE FORESEEN OVER THE WEEKEND.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT - TUES NIGHT.
TIMING: NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 MONDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 44 TUES - TUES NIGHT.

COOLER W/ NO WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED MID - LATE WEEK.


...CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPS / YEAR

TULFSMFYV
10/2591/193988/195084/1950
10/2690/195090/189186/1950
10/2788/192287/199985/1950


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   59  88  62  88 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   57  86  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   60  87  62  87 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   53  86  55  89 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   54  83  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   58  83  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   57  86  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   56  83  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
F10   59  87  61  87 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   58  87  61  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07






000
FXUS64 KOUN 241950
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
250 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AS AN UPPER HIGH MOVES IN...TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH RECORD LEVELS
THIS WEEKEND. SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST WITH SEVERAL SITES MAKING
IT INTO THE LOWER 90S.

MOVING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL OFF WITH
THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF RAIN. RIGHT NOW...MODELS ARE
SHOWING THIS FRONT STALLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...KEEPING
SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES GOING THROUGH TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER DROP IN
TEMPERATURES AND ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  90  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         59  90  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  92  61  90 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           54  91  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     58  89  61  88 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         60  88  62  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/14




000
FXUS64 KOUN 241950
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
250 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AS AN UPPER HIGH MOVES IN...TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH RECORD LEVELS
THIS WEEKEND. SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST WITH SEVERAL SITES MAKING
IT INTO THE LOWER 90S.

MOVING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL OFF WITH
THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF RAIN. RIGHT NOW...MODELS ARE
SHOWING THIS FRONT STALLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...KEEPING
SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES GOING THROUGH TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER DROP IN
TEMPERATURES AND ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  90  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         59  90  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  92  61  90 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           54  91  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     58  89  61  88 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         60  88  62  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/14




000
FXUS64 KTSA 241653
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1153 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS MAY GUST AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AT THE NE OK
TERMINALS...BUT NOT CONSISTENTLY ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...

PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG HAS LIFTED WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...PER AREA SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
PROVIDING THE ONLY SKY COVER. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED...AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE WARM START THIS
MORNING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON. GOING FORECAST HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID
80S LOOK GOOD. UPDATED THE FORECAST EARLIER TO REMOVE THE FOG AND
ALSO TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER JUST A BIT...WITH NO FURTHER UPDATES
PLANNED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... AREAS OF PATCHY LIGHT FOG MAY TEMPORARILY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT/PATCHY FOG CONTINUES ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS LARGE
UPPER HIGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SHIFTS EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE RUNNING A GOOD 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL IN MANY AREAS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS APPROACHING 20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

UPPER HIGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
AS BROAD UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL US. COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...PUSHING SOUTH TO NEAR THE RED
RIVER ON TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...HOWEVER OVERALL
QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE LIGHT. LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG STALLED FRONT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
/WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. KEPT THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY AS SOME TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES
REMAIN BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF ON PROGRESSION OF UPPER WAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...22






000
FXUS64 KOUN 241641
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1141 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME FOG IN THE MORNING...BUT
NOTHING WORTH MENTIONING IN THE TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH NO DIRECT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW DENSE...OR NEARLY
DENSE...FOG IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...SATELLITE IMAGERY...SOCIAL
MEDIA...AND INFERENCE FROM OBSERVATIONS IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
SUGGEST THAT THERE IS STILL A MULTI-COUNTY AREA OF FOG REMAINING.
SOME OF THE FOG IS LIKELY DENSE. AS A RESULT...THE FORECAST HAS
BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE A COUPLE MORE HOURS OF FOG...ALTHOUGH IT
WILL LIKELY DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM THE EDGES.
SIMILARLY...TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE FOG AREA HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO
ACCOUNT FOR A MUCH SLOWER WARMUP THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
PLANNED FOR THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

AVIATION...
FOG IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL KEEP VISITILITY IN THE MVFR RANGE
UNTIL ABOUT 241500Z. OTHERWISE SOUTH WIND AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED UNTIL 251200.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RECORD HEAT IS FORECAST FOR MANY AREAS ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
IN THE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 90 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS.
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S. THE
UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH HOT
CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WESTERLIES FINALLY
RETURN TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO NORMALS. AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO HELP A FRONT MOVE
THROUGH OKLAHOMA LATE MONDAY BRINING A FLEETING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. OTHERWISE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY.
HOWEVER, MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF OKLAHOMA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  90  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         59  90  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  92  61  90 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           54  91  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     58  89  61  88 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         60  88  62  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/14/14




000
FXUS64 KTSA 241540
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1040 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...

PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG HAS LIFTED WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...PER AREA SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
PROVIDING THE ONLY SKY COVER. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED...AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE WARM START THIS
MORNING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON. GOING FORECAST HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID
80S LOOK GOOD. UPDATED THE FORECAST EARLIER TO REMOVE THE FOG AND
ALSO TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER JUST A BIT...WITH NO FURTHER UPDATES
PLANNED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... AREAS OF PATCHY LIGHT FOG MAY TEMPORARILY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT/PATCHY FOG CONTINUES ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS LARGE
UPPER HIGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SHIFTS EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE RUNNING A GOOD 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL IN MANY AREAS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS APPROACHING 20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

UPPER HIGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
AS BROAD UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL US. COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...PUSHING SOUTH TO NEAR THE RED
RIVER ON TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...HOWEVER OVERALL
QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE LIGHT. LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG STALLED FRONT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
/WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. KEPT THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY AS SOME TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES
REMAIN BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF ON PROGRESSION OF UPPER WAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....07






000
FXUS64 KOUN 241529
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1029 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH NO DIRECT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW DENSE...OR NEARLY
DENSE...FOG IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...SATELLITE IMAGERY...SOCIAL
MEDIA...AND INFERENCE FROM OBSERVATIONS IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
SUGGEST THAT THERE IS STILL A MULTI-COUNTY AREA OF FOG REMAINING.
SOME OF THE FOG IS LIKELY DENSE. AS A RESULT...THE FORECAST HAS
BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE A COUPLE MORE HOURS OF FOG...ALTHOUGH IT
WILL LIKELY DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM THE EDGES.
SIMILARLY...TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE FOG AREA HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO
ACCOUNT FOR A MUCH SLOWER WARMUP THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
PLANNED FOR THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

AVIATION...
FOG IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL KEEP VISITILITY IN THE MVFR RANGE
UNTIL ABOUT 241500Z. OTHERWISE SOUTH WIND AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED UNTIL 251200.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RECORD HEAT IS FORECAST FOR MANY AREAS ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
IN THE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 90 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS.
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S. THE
UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH HOT
CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WESTERLIES FINALLY
RETURN TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO NORMALS. AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO HELP A FRONT MOVE
THROUGH OKLAHOMA LATE MONDAY BRINING A FLEETING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. OTHERWISE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY.
HOWEVER, MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF OKLAHOMA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  84  59  90  60 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         86  59  90  60 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  88  60  92  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           88  54  91  57 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     85  58  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         82  60  88  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/14




000
FXUS64 KTSA 241052
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
552 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... AREAS OF PATCHY LIGHT FOG MAY TEMPORARILY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT/PATCHY FOG CONTINUES ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS LARGE
UPPER HIGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SHIFTS EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE RUNNING A GOOD 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL IN MANY AREAS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS APPROACHING 20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

UPPER HIGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
AS BROAD UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL US. COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...PUSHING SOUTH TO NEAR THE RED
RIVER ON TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...HOWEVER OVERALL
QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE LIGHT. LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG STALLED FRONT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
/WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. KEPT THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY AS SOME TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES
REMAIN BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF ON PROGRESSION OF UPPER WAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 241052
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
552 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... AREAS OF PATCHY LIGHT FOG MAY TEMPORARILY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT/PATCHY FOG CONTINUES ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS LARGE
UPPER HIGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SHIFTS EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE RUNNING A GOOD 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL IN MANY AREAS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS APPROACHING 20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

UPPER HIGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
AS BROAD UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL US. COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...PUSHING SOUTH TO NEAR THE RED
RIVER ON TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...HOWEVER OVERALL
QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE LIGHT. LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG STALLED FRONT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
/WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. KEPT THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY AS SOME TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES
REMAIN BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF ON PROGRESSION OF UPPER WAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KOUN 241030
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
530 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
FOG IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL KEEP VISITILITY IN THE MVFR RANGE
UNTIL ABOUT 241500Z. OTHERWISE SOUTH WIND AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED UNTIL 251200.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RECORD HEAT IS FORECAST FOR MANY AREAS ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
IN THE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 90 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS.
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S. THE
UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH HOT
CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WESTERLIES FINALLY
RETURN TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO NORMALS. AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO HELP A FRONT MOVE
THROUGH OKLAHOMA LATE MONDAY BRINING A FLEETING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. OTHERWISE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY.
HOWEVER, MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF OKLAHOMA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  84  59  90  60 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         86  59  90  60 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  88  60  92  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           88  54  91  57 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     85  58  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         82  60  88  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/09/09




000
FXUS64 KTSA 240818
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
318 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT/PATCHY FOG CONTINUES ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS LARGE
UPPER HIGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SHIFTS EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE RUNNING A GOOD 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL IN MANY AREAS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS APPROACHING 20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

UPPER HIGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
AS BROAD UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL US. COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...PUSHING SOUTH TO NEAR THE RED
RIVER ON TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...HOWEVER OVERALL
QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE LIGHT. LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG STALLED FRONT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
/WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. KEPT THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY AS SOME TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES
REMAIN BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF ON PROGRESSION OF UPPER WAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   82  61  89  63 /  10  10   0  10
FSM   80  57  86  60 /  10  10   0  10
MLC   82  59  87  63 /  10  10   0  10
BVO   82  53  89  55 /  10  10   0  10
FYV   76  54  84  54 /   0  10   0  10
BYV   76  59  84  62 /   0  10   0  10
MKO   81  58  87  60 /  10  10   0  10
MIO   81  58  86  60 /   0  10   0  10
F10   81  59  88  62 /  10  10   0  10
HHW   79  58  87  60 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....12







000
FXUS64 KOUN 240735
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
235 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RECORD HEAT IS FORECAST FOR MANY AREAS ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
IN THE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 90 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS.
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S. THE
UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH HOT
CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WESTERLIES FINALLY
RETURN TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO NORMALS. AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO HELP A FRONT MOVE
THROUGH OKLAHOMA LATE MONDAY BRINING A FLEETING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. OTHERWISE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY.
HOWEVER, MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF OKLAHOMA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  84  59  90  60 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         86  59  90  60 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  88  60  92  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           88  54  91  57 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     85  58  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         82  60  88  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/09




000
FXUS64 KTSA 240446
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1146 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
POTENTIAL MVFR FOG TAF SITES KBVO KRVS 08Z-14Z...GREATER
POTENTIAL FOG..WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
TAF SITES KXNA KFYV 09Z-14Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT ACROSS NE OK INTO WRN AR...AS T/TD SPREADS
HAVE TIGHTENED.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  82  60  88 /  10  10  10   0
FSM   51  80  57  86 /  10  10  10   0
MLC   52  81  60  87 /  10  10  10   0
BVO   50  83  55  89 /  10  10  10   0
FYV   45  75  54  83 /  10   0  10   0
BYV   47  76  56  84 /  10   0  10   0
MKO   50  81  58  88 /  10  10  10   0
MIO   50  80  59  86 /  10   0  10   0
F10   53  81  60  88 /  10  10  10   0
HHW   50  80  57  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...21






000
FXUS64 KOUN 240346
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1055 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
24/06Z TAFS...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING. SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT COULD BRIEFLY DROP VSBY TO MVFR AT A FEW SITES
AROUND SUNRISE...BUT THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT COULD BRIEFLY DROP VSBY TO MVFR AT A FEW SITES
AROUND SUNRISE...BUT THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
A WARMING TREND WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY MONDAY...A STORM SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO RECORD OR NEAR-RECORD VALUES THIS
WEEKEND...THEN RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE NUMBERS ON TUESDAY.

BEYOND THE RANGE OF THIS FORECAST...MODELS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE
MORE INSISTENT THAT SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL ARRIVE AROUND THE END OF NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST BRIEFLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  57  85  60  89 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         57  87  59  89 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  88  60  91 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           54  88  54  90 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     57  85  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         55  82  60  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 240346
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1055 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
24/06Z TAFS...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING. SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT COULD BRIEFLY DROP VSBY TO MVFR AT A FEW SITES
AROUND SUNRISE...BUT THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT COULD BRIEFLY DROP VSBY TO MVFR AT A FEW SITES
AROUND SUNRISE...BUT THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
A WARMING TREND WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY MONDAY...A STORM SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO RECORD OR NEAR-RECORD VALUES THIS
WEEKEND...THEN RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE NUMBERS ON TUESDAY.

BEYOND THE RANGE OF THIS FORECAST...MODELS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE
MORE INSISTENT THAT SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL ARRIVE AROUND THE END OF NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST BRIEFLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  57  85  60  89 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         57  87  59  89 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  88  60  91 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           54  88  54  90 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     57  85  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         55  82  60  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 240219
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
919 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT ACROSS NE OK INTO WRN AR...AS T/TD SPREADS
HAVE TIGHTENED.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  82  60  88 /  10   0  10   0
FSM   51  80  57  86 /  10   0  10   0
MLC   52  81  60  87 /  10  10  10   0
BVO   50  83  55  89 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   45  75  54  83 /  10   0  10   0
BYV   47  76  56  84 /  10   0  10   0
MKO   50  81  58  88 /  10   0  10   0
MIO   50  80  59  86 /  10   0  10   0
F10   53  81  60  88 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   50  80  57  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18





000
FXUS64 KTSA 240219
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
919 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT ACROSS NE OK INTO WRN AR...AS T/TD SPREADS
HAVE TIGHTENED.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  82  60  88 /  10   0  10   0
FSM   51  80  57  86 /  10   0  10   0
MLC   52  81  60  87 /  10  10  10   0
BVO   50  83  55  89 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   45  75  54  83 /  10   0  10   0
BYV   47  76  56  84 /  10   0  10   0
MKO   50  81  58  88 /  10   0  10   0
MIO   50  80  59  86 /  10   0  10   0
F10   53  81  60  88 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   50  80  57  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18





000
FXUS64 KTSA 232334
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
634 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER RISK MVFR FOG
AT SITES KBVO KRVS KFYV KXNA KFSM IN 09Z-13Z TIME PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY W/ NO
KNOWN WEATHER IMPACTS FORESEEABLE.

COLD FRONT PASSES MONDAY NIGHT / TUESDAY WITH INCREASING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. TIMING AND LIMITED INSTABILITY CURRENTLY
APPEAR INHIBITORS TOWARD SVR WEATHER CHANCES THUS A LIMITED RISK
IS FORECAST.

COOLER TEMPS FOR MID WEEK W/ NO KNOWN WEATHER IMPACTS FORESEEABLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  82  60  88 /  10   0  10   0
FSM   51  80  57  86 /  10   0  10   0
MLC   52  81  60  87 /  10  10  10   0
BVO   50  83  55  89 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   45  75  54  83 /  10   0  10   0
BYV   47  76  56  84 /  10   0  10   0
MKO   50  81  58  88 /  10   0  10   0
MIO   50  80  59  86 /  10   0  10   0
F10   53  81  60  88 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   50  80  57  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...21






000
FXUS64 KOUN 232313
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
607 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT COULD BRIEFLY DROP VSBY TO MVFR AT A FEW SITES
AROUND SUNRISE...BUT THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
A WARMING TREND WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY MONDAY...A STORM SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO RECORD OR NEAR-RECORD VALUES THIS
WEEKEND...THEN RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE NUMBERS ON TUESDAY.

BEYOND THE RANGE OF THIS FORECAST...MODELS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE
MORE INSISTENT THAT SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL ARRIVE AROUND THE END OF NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST BRIEFLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  57  85  60  89 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         57  87  59  89 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  88  60  91 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           54  88  54  90 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     57  85  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         55  82  60  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 232040
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
340 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY W/ NO
KNOWN WEATHER IMPACTS FORESEEABLE.

COLD FRONT PASSES MONDAY NIGHT / TUESDAY WITH INCREASING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. TIMING AND LIMITED INSTABILITY CURRENTLY
APPEAR INHIBITORS TOWARD SVR WEATHER CHANCES THUS A LIMITED RISK
IS FORECAST.

COOLER TEMPS FOR MID WEEK W/ NO KNOWN WEATHER IMPACTS FORESEEABLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  82  60  88 /  10   0  10   0
FSM   51  80  57  86 /  10   0  10   0
MLC   52  81  60  87 /  10  10  10   0
BVO   50  83  55  89 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   45  75  54  83 /  10   0  10   0
BYV   47  76  56  84 /  10   0  10   0
MKO   50  81  58  88 /  10   0  10   0
MIO   50  80  59  86 /  10   0  10   0
F10   53  81  60  88 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   50  80  57  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07






000
FXUS64 KOUN 232007
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
307 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A WARMING TREND WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY MONDAY...A STORM SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO RECORD OR NEAR-RECORD VALUES THIS
WEEKEND...THEN RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE NUMBERS ON TUESDAY.

BEYOND THE RANGE OF THIS FORECAST...MODELS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE
MORE INSISTENT THAT SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL ARRIVE AROUND THE END OF NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST BRIEFLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  57  85  60  89 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         57  87  59  89 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  88  60  91 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           54  88  54  90 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     57  85  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         55  82  60  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 231735
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1235 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS TAF SITES THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
EASTERN SITES THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD BECOME
MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN
LIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AT BVO/FYV/XNA...BUT
LATER FORECASTS WILL NEED TO ADJUST POSSIBLE LOWER VISIBILITIES AT
OTHER SITES AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING AS A MID-LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
AS THE MID-LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WEATHER STORY ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
KNOCKED DOWN TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16






000
FXUS64 KOUN 231724
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...MAINLY OVER W/N OK...WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON TODAY. LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE GONE WITHIN A
FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. COMPUTER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BR/FG IN W OK
EARLY FRIDAY...BUT THIS SEEMS TO BE IN CONFLICT WITH THE FORECASTS
FOR WIND SPEED/DIRECTION AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW. CANNOT RULE
IT OUT...BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT IT WILL OCCUR TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT
S/SE WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

UPDATE...
LOWERED MAX TEMPS AND UPDATED POPS.

DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE TRENDING LOWER WITH TODAYS MAX TEMPS. WITH THE
LINGERING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...OPTED TO LOWER TEMPS. SHOWERS ARE
ALL BUT OUT OF THE CWA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONT TO MOVE EAST AND TAKE THE PRECIP WITH IT
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE... PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS
MORNING WITH SKIES CLEARING AND MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY AFTN.

UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OUT INTO
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND WITH VERY WARM TEMPS
EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW ARE GOING
WITH NEAR RECORD/RECORD TEMPS FOR SATURDAY. MODELS CONT TO DIFFER
WITH THIS NEXT UPPER TROUGH AS GFS MAINTAINS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND OPEN WAVE... WHERE THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED... TRIES TO
CLOSE THE UPPER LOW OFF NEAR THE AREA AND MAINTAINS PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HAVE EXTENDED THE MENTION OF RAIN
THROUGH TUESDAY.

IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD SEE MORE TYPICAL MID/LATE OCTOBER
TEMPS WITH NO ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  77  57  86  59 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         78  57  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  80  58  88  59 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           76  53  88  53 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     75  56  85  57 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         76  56  83  60 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 231528
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1028 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
LOWERED MAX TEMPS AND UPDATED POPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE TRENDING LOWER WITH TODAYS MAX TEMPS. WITH THE
LINGERING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...OPTED TO LOWER TEMPS. SHOWERS ARE
ALL BUT OUT OF THE CWA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONT TO MOVE EAST AND TAKE THE PRECIP WITH IT
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE... PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS
MORNING WITH SKIES CLEARING AND MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY AFTN.

UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OUT INTO
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND WITH VERY WARM TEMPS
EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW ARE GOING
WITH NEAR RECORD/RECORD TEMPS FOR SATURDAY. MODELS CONT TO DIFFER
WITH THIS NEXT UPPER TROUGH AS GFS MAINTAINS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND OPEN WAVE... WHERE THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED... TRIES TO
CLOSE THE UPPER LOW OFF NEAR THE AREA AND MAINTAINS PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HAVE EXTENDED THE MENTION OF RAIN
THROUGH TUESDAY.

IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD SEE MORE TYPICAL MID/LATE OCTOBER
TEMPS WITH NO ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  78  57  86  59 /  20   0   0   0
HOBART OK         81  57  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  58  88  59 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           79  53  88  53 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     77  56  85  57 /  20   0   0   0
DURANT OK         76  56  83  60 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 231514
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1014 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
INCREASED POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHERE BEST COVERAGE AND
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN RECORDED. ALSO DROPPED TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING...DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
PERSISTING LIGHT PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE
MID AFTERNOON...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY REBOUND.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING AS A MID-LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
AS THE MID-LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WEATHER STORY ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
KNOCKED DOWN TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  56  82  60 /  40  10   0   0
FSM   72  52  79  56 /  40  10   0   0
MLC   74  53  80  59 /  40  10   0   0
BVO   76  52  83  53 /  20  10   0   0
FYV   70  47  76  54 /  50  10  10   0
BYV   68  49  76  58 /  50  10   0   0
MKO   72  52  80  57 /  40  10   0   0
MIO   73  52  81  57 /  50  10  10   0
F10   73  53  81  59 /  40  10   0   0
HHW   72  51  79  57 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16





000
FXUS64 KTSA 231131
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
631 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
SITES. AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH VARIABLE
FLIGHT CONDITIONS LIKELY. KFYV AND KXNA WILL HAVE THE GREATEST
CHANCE AT SEEING IFR OR LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING AS A MID-LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
AS THE MID-LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WEATHER STORY ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
KNOCKED DOWN TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05






000
FXUS64 KOUN 230846
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
346 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONT TO MOVE EAST AND TAKE THE PRECIP WITH IT
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE... PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS
MORNING WITH SKIES CLEARING AND MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY AFTN.

UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OUT INTO
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND WITH VERY WARM TEMPS
EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW ARE GOING
WITH NEAR RECORD/RECORD TEMPS FOR SATURDAY. MODELS CONT TO DIFFER
WITH THIS NEXT UPPER TROUGH AS GFS MAINTAINS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND OPEN WAVE... WHERE THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED... TRIES TO
CLOSE THE UPPER LOW OFF NEAR THE AREA AND MAINTAINS PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HAVE EXTENDED THE MENTION OF RAIN
THROUGH TUESDAY.

IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD SEE MORE TYPICAL MID/LATE OCTOBER
TEMPS WITH NO ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  78  57  86  59 /  20   0   0   0
HOBART OK         81  57  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  58  88  59 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           79  53  88  53 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     77  56  85  57 /  20   0   0   0
DURANT OK         76  56  83  60 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 230812
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
312 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING AS A MID-LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
AS THE MID-LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WEATHER STORY ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
KNOCKED DOWN TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  56  82  60 /  30  10   0   0
FSM   72  52  79  56 /  20  10   0   0
MLC   74  53  80  59 /  20  10   0   0
BVO   76  52  83  53 /  40  10   0   0
FYV   70  47  76  54 /  20  10  10   0
BYV   68  49  76  58 /  20  10   0   0
MKO   72  52  80  57 /  20  10   0   0
MIO   73  52  81  57 /  30  10  10   0
F10   73  53  81  59 /  20  10   0   0
HHW   72  51  79  57 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 230812
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
312 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING AS A MID-LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
AS THE MID-LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WEATHER STORY ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
KNOCKED DOWN TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  56  82  60 /  30  10   0   0
FSM   72  52  79  56 /  20  10   0   0
MLC   74  53  80  59 /  20  10   0   0
BVO   76  52  83  53 /  40  10   0   0
FYV   70  47  76  54 /  20  10  10   0
BYV   68  49  76  58 /  20  10   0   0
MKO   72  52  80  57 /  20  10   0   0
MIO   73  52  81  57 /  30  10  10   0
F10   73  53  81  59 /  20  10   0   0
HHW   72  51  79  57 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....10






000
FXUS64 KOUN 230504 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1204 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS IS MOVING INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME SIGNAL THAT LIGHT RAIN WILL REDEVELOP THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW HOURS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. HAVE
BROUGHT IN CIGS A BIT LOWER THAN LAST SET OF TAFS... ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

AVIATION...
AREA OF SHOWERS IS MOVING ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS
EVENING. MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED PAST KGAG AND KWWR
BUT WILL AFFECT THE OTHERS THIS EVENING. CIGS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
VFR EVEN WITH THE PRECIPITATION. SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER-LEVEL WAVE THAT WILL PASS OVER OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS
TONIGHT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD...BUT GENERALLY LIGHT...RAIN TO THE
REGION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL AMOUNT
TO LITTLE MORE THAN SHOWERS WITH A STROKE OF LIGHTNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE. THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE
WARMER THAN AVERAGE WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANCE OF RAIN.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WILL ARRIVE
ABOUT MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  57  79  58  86 /  60  20   0   0
HOBART OK         57  81  57  88 /  30  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  83  59  89 /  30  10   0   0
GAGE OK           53  79  52  89 /  20  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     59  78  56  85 /  60  20   0   0
DURANT OK         56  76  56  84 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 230504 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1204 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS IS MOVING INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME SIGNAL THAT LIGHT RAIN WILL REDEVELOP THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW HOURS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. HAVE
BROUGHT IN CIGS A BIT LOWER THAN LAST SET OF TAFS... ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

AVIATION...
AREA OF SHOWERS IS MOVING ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS
EVENING. MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED PAST KGAG AND KWWR
BUT WILL AFFECT THE OTHERS THIS EVENING. CIGS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
VFR EVEN WITH THE PRECIPITATION. SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER-LEVEL WAVE THAT WILL PASS OVER OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS
TONIGHT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD...BUT GENERALLY LIGHT...RAIN TO THE
REGION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL AMOUNT
TO LITTLE MORE THAN SHOWERS WITH A STROKE OF LIGHTNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE. THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE
WARMER THAN AVERAGE WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANCE OF RAIN.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WILL ARRIVE
ABOUT MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  57  79  58  86 /  60  20   0   0
HOBART OK         57  81  57  88 /  30  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  83  59  89 /  30  10   0   0
GAGE OK           53  79  52  89 /  20  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     59  78  56  85 /  60  20   0   0
DURANT OK         56  76  56  84 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 230443
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1143 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE OKLAHOMA TAF SITES
BETWEEN 06-09Z...ALTHOUGH CIGS SHOULD STAY IN VFR CATEGORY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

..UPDATE...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
AREAS OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN OK WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST
THIS EVENING...AFFECTING THE KBVO/KTUL/KRVS AND KMLC TAF SITES
AFTER 07-08Z AND THE ARKANSAS TAF SITES AFTER 12Z. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ISN`T OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW FOR INCLUSION IN TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
EXPECTED FORECAST IMPACTS...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT / EARLY THURSDAY WITH NO SEVERE
WEATHER EXPECTED.
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY RAISING POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE UV RAY EXPOSURE.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   58  73  56  82 /  70  30  10  10
FSM   52  71  53  80 /  20  10   0   0
MLC   56  72  54  82 /  50  10   0   0
BVO   57  74  53  83 /  70  30  10  10
FYV   48  69  50  77 /  20  20  10   0
BYV   47  69  51  78 /  10  20  10  10
MKO   55  71  53  81 /  70  20   0   0
MIO   54  70  53  81 /  20  30  10  10
F10   57  72  55  82 /  70  20   0   0
HHW   54  73  53  81 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 230443
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1143 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE OKLAHOMA TAF SITES
BETWEEN 06-09Z...ALTHOUGH CIGS SHOULD STAY IN VFR CATEGORY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

..UPDATE...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
AREAS OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN OK WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST
THIS EVENING...AFFECTING THE KBVO/KTUL/KRVS AND KMLC TAF SITES
AFTER 07-08Z AND THE ARKANSAS TAF SITES AFTER 12Z. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ISN`T OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW FOR INCLUSION IN TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
EXPECTED FORECAST IMPACTS...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT / EARLY THURSDAY WITH NO SEVERE
WEATHER EXPECTED.
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY RAISING POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE UV RAY EXPOSURE.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   58  73  56  82 /  70  30  10  10
FSM   52  71  53  80 /  20  10   0   0
MLC   56  72  54  82 /  50  10   0   0
BVO   57  74  53  83 /  70  30  10  10
FYV   48  69  50  77 /  20  20  10   0
BYV   47  69  51  78 /  10  20  10  10
MKO   55  71  53  81 /  70  20   0   0
MIO   54  70  53  81 /  20  30  10  10
F10   57  72  55  82 /  70  20   0   0
HHW   54  73  53  81 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...18






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