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000
FXUS64 KOUN 031150
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
650 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.AVIATION...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID/LATE MORNING...OTHERWISE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 9Z AT OKC,OUN,LAW AND
SPS. A GUSTY SOUTH WIND CAN BE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN/CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING...BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA.

LATER TODAY...MIXING WILL RESULT IN RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/WESTERN KANSAS. MID-LEVEL
WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE
INTO FAR NORTHERN/WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
A TROUGH APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DESPITE STRONG SHEAR...LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL FAVOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  61  79  60 /   0  10  10  10
HOBART OK         83  62  79  60 /   0  10  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  62  80  61 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK           84  60  80  58 /  10  20  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     83  61  82  60 /   0  10  20  10
DURANT OK         80  60  79  60 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 031150
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
650 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.AVIATION...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID/LATE MORNING...OTHERWISE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 9Z AT OKC,OUN,LAW AND
SPS. A GUSTY SOUTH WIND CAN BE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN/CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING...BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA.

LATER TODAY...MIXING WILL RESULT IN RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/WESTERN KANSAS. MID-LEVEL
WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE
INTO FAR NORTHERN/WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
A TROUGH APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DESPITE STRONG SHEAR...LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL FAVOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  61  79  60 /   0  10  10  10
HOBART OK         83  62  79  60 /   0  10  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  62  80  61 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK           84  60  80  58 /  10  20  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     83  61  82  60 /   0  10  20  10
DURANT OK         80  60  79  60 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 031150
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
650 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.AVIATION...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID/LATE MORNING...OTHERWISE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 9Z AT OKC,OUN,LAW AND
SPS. A GUSTY SOUTH WIND CAN BE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN/CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING...BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA.

LATER TODAY...MIXING WILL RESULT IN RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/WESTERN KANSAS. MID-LEVEL
WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE
INTO FAR NORTHERN/WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
A TROUGH APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DESPITE STRONG SHEAR...LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL FAVOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  61  79  60 /   0  10  10  10
HOBART OK         83  62  79  60 /   0  10  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  62  80  61 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK           84  60  80  58 /  10  20  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     83  61  82  60 /   0  10  20  10
DURANT OK         80  60  79  60 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 031150
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
650 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.AVIATION...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID/LATE MORNING...OTHERWISE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 9Z AT OKC,OUN,LAW AND
SPS. A GUSTY SOUTH WIND CAN BE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN/CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING...BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA.

LATER TODAY...MIXING WILL RESULT IN RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/WESTERN KANSAS. MID-LEVEL
WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE
INTO FAR NORTHERN/WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
A TROUGH APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DESPITE STRONG SHEAR...LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL FAVOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  61  79  60 /   0  10  10  10
HOBART OK         83  62  79  60 /   0  10  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  62  80  61 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK           84  60  80  58 /  10  20  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     83  61  82  60 /   0  10  20  10
DURANT OK         80  60  79  60 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 031150
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
650 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.AVIATION...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID/LATE MORNING...OTHERWISE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 9Z AT OKC,OUN,LAW AND
SPS. A GUSTY SOUTH WIND CAN BE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN/CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING...BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA.

LATER TODAY...MIXING WILL RESULT IN RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/WESTERN KANSAS. MID-LEVEL
WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE
INTO FAR NORTHERN/WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
A TROUGH APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DESPITE STRONG SHEAR...LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL FAVOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  61  79  60 /   0  10  10  10
HOBART OK         83  62  79  60 /   0  10  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  62  80  61 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK           84  60  80  58 /  10  20  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     83  61  82  60 /   0  10  20  10
DURANT OK         80  60  79  60 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 031150
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
650 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.AVIATION...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID/LATE MORNING...OTHERWISE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 9Z AT OKC,OUN,LAW AND
SPS. A GUSTY SOUTH WIND CAN BE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN/CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING...BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA.

LATER TODAY...MIXING WILL RESULT IN RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/WESTERN KANSAS. MID-LEVEL
WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE
INTO FAR NORTHERN/WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
A TROUGH APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DESPITE STRONG SHEAR...LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL FAVOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  61  79  60 /   0  10  10  10
HOBART OK         83  62  79  60 /   0  10  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  62  80  61 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK           84  60  80  58 /  10  20  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     83  61  82  60 /   0  10  20  10
DURANT OK         80  60  79  60 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 031150
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
650 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.AVIATION...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID/LATE MORNING...OTHERWISE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 9Z AT OKC,OUN,LAW AND
SPS. A GUSTY SOUTH WIND CAN BE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN/CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING...BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA.

LATER TODAY...MIXING WILL RESULT IN RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/WESTERN KANSAS. MID-LEVEL
WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE
INTO FAR NORTHERN/WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
A TROUGH APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DESPITE STRONG SHEAR...LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL FAVOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  61  79  60 /   0  10  10  10
HOBART OK         83  62  79  60 /   0  10  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  62  80  61 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK           84  60  80  58 /  10  20  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     83  61  82  60 /   0  10  20  10
DURANT OK         80  60  79  60 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 031150
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
650 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.AVIATION...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID/LATE MORNING...OTHERWISE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 9Z AT OKC,OUN,LAW AND
SPS. A GUSTY SOUTH WIND CAN BE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN/CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING...BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA.

LATER TODAY...MIXING WILL RESULT IN RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/WESTERN KANSAS. MID-LEVEL
WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE
INTO FAR NORTHERN/WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
A TROUGH APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DESPITE STRONG SHEAR...LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL FAVOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  61  79  60 /   0  10  10  10
HOBART OK         83  62  79  60 /   0  10  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  62  80  61 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK           84  60  80  58 /  10  20  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     83  61  82  60 /   0  10  20  10
DURANT OK         80  60  79  60 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KTSA 031047
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
547 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL AREA TAF SITES THROUGH
THE VALID PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BREEZY WINDS AND WARM AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND
MONDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES
HOWEVER CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL REMAIN VERY LOW.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STEADILY INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE
OF A WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND LIFTING INTO
THE PLAINS TUES - WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA AND SPREAD EASTWARD WITH THE HIGHEST
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE FORECAST AREA BEING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW TROUGHING PREVAILING THROUGH THE WESTERN
STATES FOR MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WHICH MAINTAINS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL OCCUR
ATOP A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND RESULT IN AN UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY
CAPPED AIRMASS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WHILE THE PRIMARY SURFACE
BOUNDARIES WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ANY
PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE CONVECTION WHICH MAY SPREAD
INTO THE REGION...THUS DAILY PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MAINTAINED.
TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...10





000
FXUS64 KTSA 031047
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
547 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL AREA TAF SITES THROUGH
THE VALID PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BREEZY WINDS AND WARM AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND
MONDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES
HOWEVER CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL REMAIN VERY LOW.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STEADILY INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE
OF A WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND LIFTING INTO
THE PLAINS TUES - WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA AND SPREAD EASTWARD WITH THE HIGHEST
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE FORECAST AREA BEING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW TROUGHING PREVAILING THROUGH THE WESTERN
STATES FOR MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WHICH MAINTAINS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL OCCUR
ATOP A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND RESULT IN AN UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY
CAPPED AIRMASS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WHILE THE PRIMARY SURFACE
BOUNDARIES WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ANY
PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE CONVECTION WHICH MAY SPREAD
INTO THE REGION...THUS DAILY PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MAINTAINED.
TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 031047
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
547 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL AREA TAF SITES THROUGH
THE VALID PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BREEZY WINDS AND WARM AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND
MONDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES
HOWEVER CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL REMAIN VERY LOW.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STEADILY INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE
OF A WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND LIFTING INTO
THE PLAINS TUES - WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA AND SPREAD EASTWARD WITH THE HIGHEST
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE FORECAST AREA BEING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW TROUGHING PREVAILING THROUGH THE WESTERN
STATES FOR MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WHICH MAINTAINS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL OCCUR
ATOP A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND RESULT IN AN UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY
CAPPED AIRMASS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WHILE THE PRIMARY SURFACE
BOUNDARIES WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ANY
PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE CONVECTION WHICH MAY SPREAD
INTO THE REGION...THUS DAILY PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MAINTAINED.
TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 031047
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
547 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL AREA TAF SITES THROUGH
THE VALID PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BREEZY WINDS AND WARM AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND
MONDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES
HOWEVER CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL REMAIN VERY LOW.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STEADILY INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE
OF A WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND LIFTING INTO
THE PLAINS TUES - WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA AND SPREAD EASTWARD WITH THE HIGHEST
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE FORECAST AREA BEING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW TROUGHING PREVAILING THROUGH THE WESTERN
STATES FOR MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WHICH MAINTAINS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL OCCUR
ATOP A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND RESULT IN AN UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY
CAPPED AIRMASS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WHILE THE PRIMARY SURFACE
BOUNDARIES WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ANY
PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE CONVECTION WHICH MAY SPREAD
INTO THE REGION...THUS DAILY PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MAINTAINED.
TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...10





000
FXUS64 KTSA 030843
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
343 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
BREEZY WINDS AND WARM AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND
MONDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES
HOWEVER CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL REMAIN VERY LOW.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STEADILY INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE
OF A WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND LIFTING INTO
THE PLAINS TUES - WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA AND SPREAD EASTWARD WITH THE HIGHEST
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE FORECAST AREA BEING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW TROUGHING PREVAILING THROUGH THE WESTERN
STATES FOR MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WHICH MAINTAINS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL OCCUR
ATOP A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND RESULT IN AN UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY
CAPPED AIRMASS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WHILE THE PRIMARY SURFACE
BOUNDARIES WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ANY
PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE CONVECTION WHICH MAY SPREAD
INTO THE REGION...THUS DAILY PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MAINTAINED.
TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  62  82  60 /   0  10  10  10
FSM   83  59  83  59 /   0  10  10  10
MLC   82  61  81  60 /   0   0  10   0
BVO   83  60  82  58 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   79  57  79  57 /  10  10  10  10
BYV   80  57  80  58 /  10  10  10  10
MKO   82  59  81  59 /   0  10  10  10
MIO   82  61  82  59 /  10  10  10  10
F10   81  61  81  59 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   80  59  80  60 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 030843
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
343 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
BREEZY WINDS AND WARM AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND
MONDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES
HOWEVER CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL REMAIN VERY LOW.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STEADILY INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE
OF A WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND LIFTING INTO
THE PLAINS TUES - WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA AND SPREAD EASTWARD WITH THE HIGHEST
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE FORECAST AREA BEING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW TROUGHING PREVAILING THROUGH THE WESTERN
STATES FOR MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WHICH MAINTAINS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL OCCUR
ATOP A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND RESULT IN AN UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY
CAPPED AIRMASS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WHILE THE PRIMARY SURFACE
BOUNDARIES WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ANY
PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE CONVECTION WHICH MAY SPREAD
INTO THE REGION...THUS DAILY PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MAINTAINED.
TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  62  82  60 /   0  10  10  10
FSM   83  59  83  59 /   0  10  10  10
MLC   82  61  81  60 /   0   0  10   0
BVO   83  60  82  58 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   79  57  79  57 /  10  10  10  10
BYV   80  57  80  58 /  10  10  10  10
MKO   82  59  81  59 /   0  10  10  10
MIO   82  61  82  59 /  10  10  10  10
F10   81  61  81  59 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   80  59  80  60 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07





000
FXUS64 KOUN 030842
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
342 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN/CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING...BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA.

LATER TODAY...MIXING WILL RESULT IN RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/WESTERN KANSAS. MID-LEVEL
WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE
INTO FAR NORTHERN/WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
A TROUGH APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DESPITE STRONG SHEAR...LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL FAVOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  61  78  60 /   0  10  10  10
HOBART OK         82  61  78  60 /   0  10  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  82  61  81  61 /   0   0  10  20
GAGE OK           85  59  79  58 /  10  20  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     84  61  81  60 /   0  10  20  10
DURANT OK         80  60  79  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 030842
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
342 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN/CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING...BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA.

LATER TODAY...MIXING WILL RESULT IN RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/WESTERN KANSAS. MID-LEVEL
WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE
INTO FAR NORTHERN/WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
A TROUGH APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DESPITE STRONG SHEAR...LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL FAVOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  61  78  60 /   0  10  10  10
HOBART OK         82  61  78  60 /   0  10  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  82  61  81  61 /   0   0  10  20
GAGE OK           85  59  79  58 /  10  20  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     84  61  81  60 /   0  10  20  10
DURANT OK         80  60  79  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 030842
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
342 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN/CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING...BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA.

LATER TODAY...MIXING WILL RESULT IN RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/WESTERN KANSAS. MID-LEVEL
WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE
INTO FAR NORTHERN/WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
A TROUGH APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DESPITE STRONG SHEAR...LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL FAVOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  61  78  60 /   0  10  10  10
HOBART OK         82  61  78  60 /   0  10  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  82  61  81  61 /   0   0  10  20
GAGE OK           85  59  79  58 /  10  20  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     84  61  81  60 /   0  10  20  10
DURANT OK         80  60  79  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 030842
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
342 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN/CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING...BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA.

LATER TODAY...MIXING WILL RESULT IN RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/WESTERN KANSAS. MID-LEVEL
WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE
INTO FAR NORTHERN/WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
A TROUGH APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DESPITE STRONG SHEAR...LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL FAVOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  61  78  60 /   0  10  10  10
HOBART OK         82  61  78  60 /   0  10  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  82  61  81  61 /   0   0  10  20
GAGE OK           85  59  79  58 /  10  20  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     84  61  81  60 /   0  10  20  10
DURANT OK         80  60  79  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KTSA 030451
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1151 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL A ALL SITES THROUGHOUT
THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 923 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH
NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 030451
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1151 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL A ALL SITES THROUGHOUT
THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 923 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH
NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KOUN 030343 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1043 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
03/06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. CIRRUS WILL
DOMINATE SKY THROUGH TONIGHT AND LINGER TOMORROW CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS. WILL LEAVE MENTION OF -SHRA OUT OF
FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS WITH ANY
ACTIVITY BRIEF WITH NO RESTRICTIONS. MODERATE-STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KTS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  81  61  78 /   0   0  10  10
HOBART OK         59  82  61  78 /  10   0  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  82  61  81 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK           60  85  59  79 /  10  10  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     62  84  61  81 /   0   0  10  20
DURANT OK         58  80  60  79 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 030343 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1043 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
03/06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. CIRRUS WILL
DOMINATE SKY THROUGH TONIGHT AND LINGER TOMORROW CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS. WILL LEAVE MENTION OF -SHRA OUT OF
FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS WITH ANY
ACTIVITY BRIEF WITH NO RESTRICTIONS. MODERATE-STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KTS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  81  61  78 /   0   0  10  10
HOBART OK         59  82  61  78 /  10   0  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  82  61  81 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK           60  85  59  79 /  10  10  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     62  84  61  81 /   0   0  10  20
DURANT OK         58  80  60  79 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 030258 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
958 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS THAN TODAY EXPECTED BY SUNDAY MORNING. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO INCREASE SKY COVER AND MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY
GRIDS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
03/00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAF PERIOD. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
CONVECTION WELL WEST OF TERMINALS. WILL LEAVE MENTION OF -SHRA
OUT OF FORECAST BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING LONG
ENOUGH TO AFFECT NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TERMINALS LATE THIS EVENING.
AFTER DIURNAL BACKING AND DECREASE OF WINDS MODERATE-STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 157 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A SLOW-MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH OKLAHOMA UNTIL
IT PASSES TUESDAY, BUT THE RESULTING UPPER FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MOIST THROUGH MID-WEEK. IN THE NEAR TERM
SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED SUNDAY. THE FIRST
SMALL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTHWEST OF OKLAHOMA EARLY MONDAY
AND BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN. THE MID-LEVEL MOIST AXIS WILL
MOVE FROM EASTERN NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE INTO OKLAHOMA MONDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY. THE STRONGEST SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT MAY COME
TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY WHEN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA. IT APPEARS THAT THE DRYLINE WILL NOT
BE MUCH OF A PLAYER NEXT WEEK, BUT WEAK WAVES IN THE MOIST AIRMASS
WILL GIVE A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  81  61  78 /   0   0  10  10
HOBART OK         59  82  61  78 /  10   0  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  82  61  81 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK           60  85  59  79 /  10  10  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     62  84  61  81 /   0   0  10  20
DURANT OK         58  80  60  79 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/11



000
FXUS64 KTSA 030223
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
923 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH
NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  83  63  82 /   0  10  10  10
FSM   56  82  59  82 /   0  10   0  10
MLC   58  81  60  80 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   59  83  61  82 /   0  10  10  10
FYV   53  80  57  78 /   0  10  10  10
BYV   53  80  57  79 /   0  10  10  10
MKO   56  80  59  79 /   0  10  10  10
MIO   57  82  60  80 /   0  10  10  10
F10   58  81  61  79 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   56  80  58  79 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18





000
FXUS64 KTSA 030223
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
923 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH
NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  83  63  82 /   0  10  10  10
FSM   56  82  59  82 /   0  10   0  10
MLC   58  81  60  80 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   59  83  61  82 /   0  10  10  10
FYV   53  80  57  78 /   0  10  10  10
BYV   53  80  57  79 /   0  10  10  10
MKO   56  80  59  79 /   0  10  10  10
MIO   57  82  60  80 /   0  10  10  10
F10   58  81  61  79 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   56  80  58  79 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18






000
FXUS64 KOUN 022340
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
640 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
03/00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAF PERIOD. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
CONVECTION WELL WEST OF TERMINALS. WILL LEAVE MENTION OF -SHRA
OUT OF FORECAST BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING LONG
ENOUGH TO AFFECT NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TERMINALS LATE THIS EVENING.
AFTER DIURNAL BACKING AND DECREASE OF WINDS MODERATE-STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 157 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A SLOW-MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH OKLAHOMA UNTIL
IT PASSES TUESDAY, BUT THE RESULTING UPPER FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MOIST THROUGH MID-WEEK. IN THE NEAR TERM
SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED SUNDAY. THE FIRST
SMALL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTHWEST OF OKLAHOMA EARLY MONDAY
AND BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN. THE MID-LEVEL MOIST AXIS WILL
MOVE FROM EASTERN NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE INTO OKLAHOMA MONDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY. THE STRONGEST SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT MAY COME
TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY WHEN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA. IT APPEARS THAT THE DRYLINE WILL NOT
BE MUCH OF A PLAYER NEXT WEEK, BUT WEAK WAVES IN THE MOIST AIRMASS
WILL GIVE A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  81  61  78 /   0   0  10  10
HOBART OK         59  82  61  78 /   0   0  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  82  61  81 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK           60  85  59  79 /  10  10  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     62  84  61  81 /   0   0  10  20
DURANT OK         58  80  60  79 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 022340
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
640 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
03/00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAF PERIOD. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
CONVECTION WELL WEST OF TERMINALS. WILL LEAVE MENTION OF -SHRA
OUT OF FORECAST BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING LONG
ENOUGH TO AFFECT NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TERMINALS LATE THIS EVENING.
AFTER DIURNAL BACKING AND DECREASE OF WINDS MODERATE-STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 157 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A SLOW-MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH OKLAHOMA UNTIL
IT PASSES TUESDAY, BUT THE RESULTING UPPER FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MOIST THROUGH MID-WEEK. IN THE NEAR TERM
SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED SUNDAY. THE FIRST
SMALL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTHWEST OF OKLAHOMA EARLY MONDAY
AND BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN. THE MID-LEVEL MOIST AXIS WILL
MOVE FROM EASTERN NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE INTO OKLAHOMA MONDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY. THE STRONGEST SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT MAY COME
TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY WHEN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA. IT APPEARS THAT THE DRYLINE WILL NOT
BE MUCH OF A PLAYER NEXT WEEK, BUT WEAK WAVES IN THE MOIST AIRMASS
WILL GIVE A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  81  61  78 /   0   0  10  10
HOBART OK         59  82  61  78 /   0   0  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  82  61  81 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK           60  85  59  79 /  10  10  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     62  84  61  81 /   0   0  10  20
DURANT OK         58  80  60  79 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 022340
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
640 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
03/00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAF PERIOD. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
CONVECTION WELL WEST OF TERMINALS. WILL LEAVE MENTION OF -SHRA
OUT OF FORECAST BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING LONG
ENOUGH TO AFFECT NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TERMINALS LATE THIS EVENING.
AFTER DIURNAL BACKING AND DECREASE OF WINDS MODERATE-STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 157 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A SLOW-MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH OKLAHOMA UNTIL
IT PASSES TUESDAY, BUT THE RESULTING UPPER FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MOIST THROUGH MID-WEEK. IN THE NEAR TERM
SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED SUNDAY. THE FIRST
SMALL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTHWEST OF OKLAHOMA EARLY MONDAY
AND BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN. THE MID-LEVEL MOIST AXIS WILL
MOVE FROM EASTERN NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE INTO OKLAHOMA MONDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY. THE STRONGEST SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT MAY COME
TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY WHEN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA. IT APPEARS THAT THE DRYLINE WILL NOT
BE MUCH OF A PLAYER NEXT WEEK, BUT WEAK WAVES IN THE MOIST AIRMASS
WILL GIVE A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  81  61  78 /   0   0  10  10
HOBART OK         59  82  61  78 /   0   0  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  82  61  81 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK           60  85  59  79 /  10  10  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     62  84  61  81 /   0   0  10  20
DURANT OK         58  80  60  79 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/11




000
FXUS64 KTSA 022313
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
613 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL A ALL SITES THROUGHOUT
THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE RECENT QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING PERSISTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO EARLY MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW SHOULD BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAYS ALREADY ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS...WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING AS THE SURFACE HIGH IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES PULLS FARTHER TO THE EAST. WIND GUSTS
TOMORROW WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE...BUT SHOULD NOT
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

BEGINNING DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK...SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO AND PARKS ITSELF IN THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL LEAD
TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA
AND ARKANSAS. MONDAY AND MUCH OF TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT
INCREASED CLOUD COVER DURING THESE DAYS SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TOMORROW...WHILE ALSO LEADING TO
INCREASED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

BEGINNING PERHAPS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MORE LIKELY
TUESDAY NIGHT...A SERIES OF IMPULSES IN THE MAIN UPPER FLOW WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ABOUT EVERY 18 TO 24 HOURS.
INITIALLY...THE PRIMARY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS AND THE BEST WIND
FIELDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH
WILL KEEP THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. BY
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT THE BETTER WIND FIELDS STILL LOOK TO
RESIDE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION...WHICH WOULD SERVE AS
A CONTINUED LIMITING FACTOR.

TEMPERATURES FROM MID WEEK ON SHOULD FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
FOR THE MOST PART...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND DAYTIME PRECIPITATION ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD LEAD TO ONE DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL VALUES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO INCREASING
MOISTURE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 022313
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
613 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL A ALL SITES THROUGHOUT
THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE RECENT QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING PERSISTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO EARLY MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW SHOULD BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAYS ALREADY ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS...WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING AS THE SURFACE HIGH IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES PULLS FARTHER TO THE EAST. WIND GUSTS
TOMORROW WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE...BUT SHOULD NOT
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

BEGINNING DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK...SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO AND PARKS ITSELF IN THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL LEAD
TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA
AND ARKANSAS. MONDAY AND MUCH OF TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT
INCREASED CLOUD COVER DURING THESE DAYS SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TOMORROW...WHILE ALSO LEADING TO
INCREASED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

BEGINNING PERHAPS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MORE LIKELY
TUESDAY NIGHT...A SERIES OF IMPULSES IN THE MAIN UPPER FLOW WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ABOUT EVERY 18 TO 24 HOURS.
INITIALLY...THE PRIMARY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS AND THE BEST WIND
FIELDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH
WILL KEEP THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. BY
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT THE BETTER WIND FIELDS STILL LOOK TO
RESIDE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION...WHICH WOULD SERVE AS
A CONTINUED LIMITING FACTOR.

TEMPERATURES FROM MID WEEK ON SHOULD FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
FOR THE MOST PART...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND DAYTIME PRECIPITATION ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD LEAD TO ONE DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL VALUES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO INCREASING
MOISTURE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 022313
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
613 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL A ALL SITES THROUGHOUT
THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE RECENT QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING PERSISTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO EARLY MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW SHOULD BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAYS ALREADY ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS...WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING AS THE SURFACE HIGH IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES PULLS FARTHER TO THE EAST. WIND GUSTS
TOMORROW WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE...BUT SHOULD NOT
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

BEGINNING DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK...SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO AND PARKS ITSELF IN THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL LEAD
TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA
AND ARKANSAS. MONDAY AND MUCH OF TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT
INCREASED CLOUD COVER DURING THESE DAYS SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TOMORROW...WHILE ALSO LEADING TO
INCREASED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

BEGINNING PERHAPS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MORE LIKELY
TUESDAY NIGHT...A SERIES OF IMPULSES IN THE MAIN UPPER FLOW WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ABOUT EVERY 18 TO 24 HOURS.
INITIALLY...THE PRIMARY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS AND THE BEST WIND
FIELDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH
WILL KEEP THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. BY
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT THE BETTER WIND FIELDS STILL LOOK TO
RESIDE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION...WHICH WOULD SERVE AS
A CONTINUED LIMITING FACTOR.

TEMPERATURES FROM MID WEEK ON SHOULD FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
FOR THE MOST PART...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND DAYTIME PRECIPITATION ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD LEAD TO ONE DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL VALUES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO INCREASING
MOISTURE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 022313
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
613 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL A ALL SITES THROUGHOUT
THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE RECENT QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING PERSISTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO EARLY MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW SHOULD BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAYS ALREADY ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS...WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING AS THE SURFACE HIGH IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES PULLS FARTHER TO THE EAST. WIND GUSTS
TOMORROW WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE...BUT SHOULD NOT
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

BEGINNING DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK...SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO AND PARKS ITSELF IN THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL LEAD
TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA
AND ARKANSAS. MONDAY AND MUCH OF TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT
INCREASED CLOUD COVER DURING THESE DAYS SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TOMORROW...WHILE ALSO LEADING TO
INCREASED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

BEGINNING PERHAPS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MORE LIKELY
TUESDAY NIGHT...A SERIES OF IMPULSES IN THE MAIN UPPER FLOW WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ABOUT EVERY 18 TO 24 HOURS.
INITIALLY...THE PRIMARY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS AND THE BEST WIND
FIELDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH
WILL KEEP THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. BY
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT THE BETTER WIND FIELDS STILL LOOK TO
RESIDE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION...WHICH WOULD SERVE AS
A CONTINUED LIMITING FACTOR.

TEMPERATURES FROM MID WEEK ON SHOULD FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
FOR THE MOST PART...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND DAYTIME PRECIPITATION ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD LEAD TO ONE DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL VALUES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO INCREASING
MOISTURE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 022313
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
613 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL A ALL SITES THROUGHOUT
THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE RECENT QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING PERSISTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO EARLY MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW SHOULD BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAYS ALREADY ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS...WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING AS THE SURFACE HIGH IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES PULLS FARTHER TO THE EAST. WIND GUSTS
TOMORROW WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE...BUT SHOULD NOT
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

BEGINNING DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK...SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO AND PARKS ITSELF IN THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL LEAD
TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA
AND ARKANSAS. MONDAY AND MUCH OF TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT
INCREASED CLOUD COVER DURING THESE DAYS SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TOMORROW...WHILE ALSO LEADING TO
INCREASED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

BEGINNING PERHAPS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MORE LIKELY
TUESDAY NIGHT...A SERIES OF IMPULSES IN THE MAIN UPPER FLOW WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ABOUT EVERY 18 TO 24 HOURS.
INITIALLY...THE PRIMARY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS AND THE BEST WIND
FIELDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH
WILL KEEP THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. BY
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT THE BETTER WIND FIELDS STILL LOOK TO
RESIDE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION...WHICH WOULD SERVE AS
A CONTINUED LIMITING FACTOR.

TEMPERATURES FROM MID WEEK ON SHOULD FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
FOR THE MOST PART...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND DAYTIME PRECIPITATION ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD LEAD TO ONE DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL VALUES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO INCREASING
MOISTURE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 022313
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
613 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL A ALL SITES THROUGHOUT
THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE RECENT QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING PERSISTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO EARLY MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW SHOULD BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAYS ALREADY ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS...WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING AS THE SURFACE HIGH IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES PULLS FARTHER TO THE EAST. WIND GUSTS
TOMORROW WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE...BUT SHOULD NOT
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

BEGINNING DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK...SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO AND PARKS ITSELF IN THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL LEAD
TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA
AND ARKANSAS. MONDAY AND MUCH OF TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT
INCREASED CLOUD COVER DURING THESE DAYS SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TOMORROW...WHILE ALSO LEADING TO
INCREASED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

BEGINNING PERHAPS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MORE LIKELY
TUESDAY NIGHT...A SERIES OF IMPULSES IN THE MAIN UPPER FLOW WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ABOUT EVERY 18 TO 24 HOURS.
INITIALLY...THE PRIMARY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS AND THE BEST WIND
FIELDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH
WILL KEEP THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. BY
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT THE BETTER WIND FIELDS STILL LOOK TO
RESIDE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION...WHICH WOULD SERVE AS
A CONTINUED LIMITING FACTOR.

TEMPERATURES FROM MID WEEK ON SHOULD FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
FOR THE MOST PART...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND DAYTIME PRECIPITATION ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD LEAD TO ONE DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL VALUES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO INCREASING
MOISTURE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 022017
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
317 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE RECENT QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING PERSISTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO EARLY MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW SHOULD BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAYS ALREADY ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS...WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING AS THE SURFACE HIGH IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES PULLS FARTHER TO THE EAST. WIND GUSTS
TOMORROW WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE...BUT SHOULD NOT
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

BEGINNING DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK...SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO AND PARKS ITSELF IN THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL LEAD
TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA
AND ARKANSAS. MONDAY AND MUCH OF TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT
INCREASED CLOUD COVER DURING THESE DAYS SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TOMORROW...WHILE ALSO LEADING TO
INCREASED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

BEGINNING PERHAPS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MORE LIKELY
TUESDAY NIGHT...A SERIES OF IMPULSES IN THE MAIN UPPER FLOW WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ABOUT EVERY 18 TO 24 HOURS.
INITIALLY...THE PRIMARY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS AND THE BEST WIND
FIELDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH
WILL KEEP THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. BY
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT THE BETTER WIND FIELDS STILL LOOK TO
RESIDE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION...WHICH WOULD SERVE AS
A CONTINUED LIMITING FACTOR.

TEMPERATURES FROM MID WEEK ON SHOULD FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
FOR THE MOST PART...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND DAYTIME PRECIPITATION ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD LEAD TO ONE DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL VALUES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO INCREASING
MOISTURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  83  63  82 /   0  10  10  10
FSM   56  82  59  82 /   0  10   0  10
MLC   58  81  60  80 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   59  83  61  82 /   0  10  10  10
FYV   53  80  57  78 /   0  10  10  10
BYV   53  80  57  79 /   0  10  10  10
MKO   56  80  59  79 /   0  10  10  10
MIO   57  82  60  80 /   0  10  10  10
F10   58  81  61  79 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   56  80  58  79 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 022017
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
317 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE RECENT QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING PERSISTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO EARLY MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW SHOULD BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAYS ALREADY ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS...WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING AS THE SURFACE HIGH IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES PULLS FARTHER TO THE EAST. WIND GUSTS
TOMORROW WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE...BUT SHOULD NOT
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

BEGINNING DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK...SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO AND PARKS ITSELF IN THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL LEAD
TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA
AND ARKANSAS. MONDAY AND MUCH OF TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT
INCREASED CLOUD COVER DURING THESE DAYS SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TOMORROW...WHILE ALSO LEADING TO
INCREASED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

BEGINNING PERHAPS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MORE LIKELY
TUESDAY NIGHT...A SERIES OF IMPULSES IN THE MAIN UPPER FLOW WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ABOUT EVERY 18 TO 24 HOURS.
INITIALLY...THE PRIMARY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS AND THE BEST WIND
FIELDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH
WILL KEEP THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. BY
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT THE BETTER WIND FIELDS STILL LOOK TO
RESIDE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION...WHICH WOULD SERVE AS
A CONTINUED LIMITING FACTOR.

TEMPERATURES FROM MID WEEK ON SHOULD FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
FOR THE MOST PART...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND DAYTIME PRECIPITATION ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD LEAD TO ONE DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL VALUES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO INCREASING
MOISTURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  83  63  82 /   0  10  10  10
FSM   56  82  59  82 /   0  10   0  10
MLC   58  81  60  80 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   59  83  61  82 /   0  10  10  10
FYV   53  80  57  78 /   0  10  10  10
BYV   53  80  57  79 /   0  10  10  10
MKO   56  80  59  79 /   0  10  10  10
MIO   57  82  60  80 /   0  10  10  10
F10   58  81  61  79 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   56  80  58  79 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KOUN 021857
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
157 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A SLOW-MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH OKLAHOMA UNTIL
IT PASSES TUESDAY, BUT THE RESULTING UPPER FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MOIST THROUGH MID-WEEK. IN THE NEAR TERM
SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED SUNDAY. THE FIRST
SMALL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTHWEST OF OKLAHOMA EARLY MONDAY
AND BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN. THE MID-LEVEL MOIST AXIS WILL
MOVE FROM EASTERN NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE INTO OKLAHOMA MONDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY. THE STRONGEST SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT MAY COME
TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY WHEN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA. IT APPEARS THAT THE DRYLINE WILL NOT
BE MUCH OF A PLAYER NEXT WEEK, BUT WEAK WAVES IN THE MOIST AIRMASS
WILL GIVE A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  81  61  78 /   0   0  10  10
HOBART OK         59  82  61  78 /   0   0  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  82  61  81 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK           60  85  59  79 /  10  10  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     62  84  61  81 /   0   0  10  20
DURANT OK         58  80  60  79 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/09



000
FXUS64 KOUN 021857
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
157 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A SLOW-MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH OKLAHOMA UNTIL
IT PASSES TUESDAY, BUT THE RESULTING UPPER FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MOIST THROUGH MID-WEEK. IN THE NEAR TERM
SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED SUNDAY. THE FIRST
SMALL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTHWEST OF OKLAHOMA EARLY MONDAY
AND BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN. THE MID-LEVEL MOIST AXIS WILL
MOVE FROM EASTERN NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE INTO OKLAHOMA MONDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY. THE STRONGEST SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT MAY COME
TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY WHEN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA. IT APPEARS THAT THE DRYLINE WILL NOT
BE MUCH OF A PLAYER NEXT WEEK, BUT WEAK WAVES IN THE MOIST AIRMASS
WILL GIVE A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  81  61  78 /   0   0  10  10
HOBART OK         59  82  61  78 /   0   0  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  82  61  81 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK           60  85  59  79 /  10  10  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     62  84  61  81 /   0   0  10  20
DURANT OK         58  80  60  79 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 021857
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
157 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A SLOW-MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH OKLAHOMA UNTIL
IT PASSES TUESDAY, BUT THE RESULTING UPPER FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MOIST THROUGH MID-WEEK. IN THE NEAR TERM
SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED SUNDAY. THE FIRST
SMALL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTHWEST OF OKLAHOMA EARLY MONDAY
AND BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN. THE MID-LEVEL MOIST AXIS WILL
MOVE FROM EASTERN NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE INTO OKLAHOMA MONDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY. THE STRONGEST SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT MAY COME
TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY WHEN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA. IT APPEARS THAT THE DRYLINE WILL NOT
BE MUCH OF A PLAYER NEXT WEEK, BUT WEAK WAVES IN THE MOIST AIRMASS
WILL GIVE A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  81  61  78 /   0   0  10  10
HOBART OK         59  82  61  78 /   0   0  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  82  61  81 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK           60  85  59  79 /  10  10  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     62  84  61  81 /   0   0  10  20
DURANT OK         58  80  60  79 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/09



000
FXUS64 KOUN 021743
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1243 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL 031800.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NE. PLEASE SEE THE
DISCUSSION BELOW.

DISCUSSION...
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE NE LATE THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...SOME ALTOSTRATUS REMAINS PRESENT OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND NE OK. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE REMAINING HOURS OF THE MORNING. SKY COVER HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY THROUGH ~18Z. NO OTHER SIGNFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

AVIATION...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE/MOVE EAST THIS
MORNING. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...EARLY EVENING. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE
WEST THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS AND ROCKIES YESTERDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL THIN
THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON BUT ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FORM TO
OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT
CHANCES ARE LOW.

AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF LIGHT WINDS...SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE
SUNDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US. AS THIS SYSTEM EJECTS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM NEAR A DRYLINE
IN FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA/EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. A SIMILAR SETUP WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  81  61  78 /   0   0  10  10
HOBART OK         59  82  61  78 /   0   0  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  82  61  81 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK           60  85  59  79 /  10  10  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     62  84  61  81 /   0   0  10  20
DURANT OK         58  80  60  79 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/09/09



000
FXUS64 KOUN 021743
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1243 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL 031800.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NE. PLEASE SEE THE
DISCUSSION BELOW.

DISCUSSION...
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE NE LATE THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...SOME ALTOSTRATUS REMAINS PRESENT OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND NE OK. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE REMAINING HOURS OF THE MORNING. SKY COVER HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY THROUGH ~18Z. NO OTHER SIGNFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

AVIATION...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE/MOVE EAST THIS
MORNING. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...EARLY EVENING. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE
WEST THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS AND ROCKIES YESTERDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL THIN
THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON BUT ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FORM TO
OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT
CHANCES ARE LOW.

AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF LIGHT WINDS...SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE
SUNDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US. AS THIS SYSTEM EJECTS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM NEAR A DRYLINE
IN FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA/EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. A SIMILAR SETUP WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  81  61  78 /   0   0  10  10
HOBART OK         59  82  61  78 /   0   0  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  82  61  81 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK           60  85  59  79 /  10  10  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     62  84  61  81 /   0   0  10  20
DURANT OK         58  80  60  79 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/09/09




000
FXUS64 KTSA 021547
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1047 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MINOR RIPPLE MOVING WEST->EAST PRODUCING MID LEVEL CLOUD
AND VIRGA OVER OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. A
FEW SPRINKLES NOTED THIS PAST HOUR @ KPNC. FEW SPRINKLES
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION NORTH OF 412 INTO AFTERNOON HOURS.
GW


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE
VALID PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH TEMPS TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER. SFC RIDGING WILL BE
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF WHILE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES
REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTH WHICH WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY
THROUGH MONDAY.

DATA REMAIN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A DEFINED WAVE THROUGH NORTHERN
MEXICO ON MONDAY AND LIFTING IT SHARPLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
PLAINS TUES - WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME
WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAINS LIKELY FOCUSED WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE PATTERN FOR LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE TROUGHING THROUGH THE
WESTERN STATES PLACING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS
ATOP A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. SUBTLE WAVES WITHIN THE FLOW LOOK TO
KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED ACROSS THE REGION THUS A CONTINUATION
OF DAILY PRECIP CHANCES...AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  60  82  62 /   0  10   0  10
FSM   80  56  82  58 /   0  10  10  10
MLC   79  59  80  60 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   80  58  82  60 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   76  53  78  57 /   0  10  10  10
BYV   76  54  79  58 /   0  10  10  10
MKO   79  58  80  60 /   0  10   0  10
MIO   78  59  80  61 /  10  10  10  10
F10   79  59  80  60 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   79  56  80  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....22





000
FXUS64 KTSA 021547
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1047 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MINOR RIPPLE MOVING WEST->EAST PRODUCING MID LEVEL CLOUD
AND VIRGA OVER OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. A
FEW SPRINKLES NOTED THIS PAST HOUR @ KPNC. FEW SPRINKLES
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION NORTH OF 412 INTO AFTERNOON HOURS.
GW


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE
VALID PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH TEMPS TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER. SFC RIDGING WILL BE
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF WHILE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES
REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTH WHICH WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY
THROUGH MONDAY.

DATA REMAIN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A DEFINED WAVE THROUGH NORTHERN
MEXICO ON MONDAY AND LIFTING IT SHARPLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
PLAINS TUES - WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME
WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAINS LIKELY FOCUSED WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE PATTERN FOR LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE TROUGHING THROUGH THE
WESTERN STATES PLACING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS
ATOP A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. SUBTLE WAVES WITHIN THE FLOW LOOK TO
KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED ACROSS THE REGION THUS A CONTINUATION
OF DAILY PRECIP CHANCES...AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  60  82  62 /   0  10   0  10
FSM   80  56  82  58 /   0  10  10  10
MLC   79  59  80  60 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   80  58  82  60 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   76  53  78  57 /   0  10  10  10
BYV   76  54  79  58 /   0  10  10  10
MKO   79  58  80  60 /   0  10   0  10
MIO   78  59  80  61 /  10  10  10  10
F10   79  59  80  60 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   79  56  80  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KOUN 021534 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1034 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NE. PLEASE SEE THE
DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE NE LATE THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...SOME ALTOSTRATUS REMAINS PRESENT OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND NE OK. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE REMAINING HOURS OF THE MORNING. SKY COVER HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY THROUGH ~18Z. NO OTHER SIGNFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

AVIATION...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE/MOVE EAST THIS
MORNING. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...EARLY EVENING. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE
WEST THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS AND ROCKIES YESTERDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL THIN
THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON BUT ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FORM TO
OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT
CHANCES ARE LOW.

AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF LIGHT WINDS...SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE
SUNDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US. AS THIS SYSTEM EJECTS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM NEAR A DRYLINE
IN FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA/EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. A SIMILAR SETUP WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  80  59  81  61 /   0   0   0  10
HOBART OK         81  57  82  61 /  10   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  82  58  82  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           82  57  85  59 /  10  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     81  60  84  61 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         80  58  80  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 021145
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
645 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE/MOVE EAST THIS
MORNING. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...EARLY EVENING. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE
WEST THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS AND ROCKIES YESTERDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL THIN
THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON BUT ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FORM TO
OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT
CHANCES ARE LOW.

AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF LIGHT WINDS...SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE
SUNDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US. AS THIS SYSTEM EJECTS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF OKLAOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM NEAR A DRYLINE
IN FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA/EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. A SIMILAR SETUP WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  80  59  81  61 /   0   0   0  10
HOBART OK         82  57  82  61 /  10   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  58  82  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           82  57  85  59 /  10  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     81  60  84  61 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         79  58  80  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 021145
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
645 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE/MOVE EAST THIS
MORNING. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...EARLY EVENING. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE
WEST THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS AND ROCKIES YESTERDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL THIN
THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON BUT ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FORM TO
OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT
CHANCES ARE LOW.

AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF LIGHT WINDS...SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE
SUNDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US. AS THIS SYSTEM EJECTS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF OKLAOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM NEAR A DRYLINE
IN FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA/EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. A SIMILAR SETUP WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  80  59  81  61 /   0   0   0  10
HOBART OK         82  57  82  61 /  10   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  58  82  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           82  57  85  59 /  10  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     81  60  84  61 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         79  58  80  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 021145
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
645 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE/MOVE EAST THIS
MORNING. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...EARLY EVENING. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE
WEST THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS AND ROCKIES YESTERDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL THIN
THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON BUT ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FORM TO
OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT
CHANCES ARE LOW.

AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF LIGHT WINDS...SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE
SUNDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US. AS THIS SYSTEM EJECTS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF OKLAOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM NEAR A DRYLINE
IN FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA/EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. A SIMILAR SETUP WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  80  59  81  61 /   0   0   0  10
HOBART OK         82  57  82  61 /  10   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  58  82  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           82  57  85  59 /  10  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     81  60  84  61 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         79  58  80  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 021145
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
645 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE/MOVE EAST THIS
MORNING. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...EARLY EVENING. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE
WEST THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS AND ROCKIES YESTERDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL THIN
THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON BUT ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FORM TO
OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT
CHANCES ARE LOW.

AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF LIGHT WINDS...SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE
SUNDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US. AS THIS SYSTEM EJECTS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF OKLAOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM NEAR A DRYLINE
IN FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA/EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. A SIMILAR SETUP WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  80  59  81  61 /   0   0   0  10
HOBART OK         82  57  82  61 /  10   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  58  82  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           82  57  85  59 /  10  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     81  60  84  61 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         79  58  80  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 021039
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
539 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE
VALID PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH TEMPS TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER. SFC RIDGING WILL BE
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF WHILE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES
REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTH WHICH WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY
THROUGH MONDAY.

DATA REMAIN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A DEFINED WAVE THROUGH NORTHERN
MEXICO ON MONDAY AND LIFTING IT SHARPLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
PLAINS TUES - WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME
WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAINS LIKELY FOCUSED WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE PATTERN FOR LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE TROUGHING THROUGH THE
WESTERN STATES PLACING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS
ATOP A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. SUBTLE WAVES WITHIN THE FLOW LOOK TO
KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED ACROSS THE REGION THUS A CONTINUATION
OF DAILY PRECIP CHANCES...AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 021039
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
539 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE
VALID PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH TEMPS TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER. SFC RIDGING WILL BE
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF WHILE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES
REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTH WHICH WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY
THROUGH MONDAY.

DATA REMAIN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A DEFINED WAVE THROUGH NORTHERN
MEXICO ON MONDAY AND LIFTING IT SHARPLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
PLAINS TUES - WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME
WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAINS LIKELY FOCUSED WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE PATTERN FOR LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE TROUGHING THROUGH THE
WESTERN STATES PLACING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS
ATOP A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. SUBTLE WAVES WITHIN THE FLOW LOOK TO
KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED ACROSS THE REGION THUS A CONTINUATION
OF DAILY PRECIP CHANCES...AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10





000
FXUS64 KTSA 021039
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
539 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE
VALID PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH TEMPS TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER. SFC RIDGING WILL BE
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF WHILE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES
REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTH WHICH WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY
THROUGH MONDAY.

DATA REMAIN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A DEFINED WAVE THROUGH NORTHERN
MEXICO ON MONDAY AND LIFTING IT SHARPLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
PLAINS TUES - WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME
WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAINS LIKELY FOCUSED WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE PATTERN FOR LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE TROUGHING THROUGH THE
WESTERN STATES PLACING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS
ATOP A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. SUBTLE WAVES WITHIN THE FLOW LOOK TO
KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED ACROSS THE REGION THUS A CONTINUATION
OF DAILY PRECIP CHANCES...AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 021039
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
539 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE
VALID PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH TEMPS TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER. SFC RIDGING WILL BE
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF WHILE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES
REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTH WHICH WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY
THROUGH MONDAY.

DATA REMAIN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A DEFINED WAVE THROUGH NORTHERN
MEXICO ON MONDAY AND LIFTING IT SHARPLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
PLAINS TUES - WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME
WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAINS LIKELY FOCUSED WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE PATTERN FOR LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE TROUGHING THROUGH THE
WESTERN STATES PLACING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS
ATOP A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. SUBTLE WAVES WITHIN THE FLOW LOOK TO
KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED ACROSS THE REGION THUS A CONTINUATION
OF DAILY PRECIP CHANCES...AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 021039
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
539 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE
VALID PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH TEMPS TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER. SFC RIDGING WILL BE
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF WHILE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES
REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTH WHICH WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY
THROUGH MONDAY.

DATA REMAIN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A DEFINED WAVE THROUGH NORTHERN
MEXICO ON MONDAY AND LIFTING IT SHARPLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
PLAINS TUES - WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME
WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAINS LIKELY FOCUSED WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE PATTERN FOR LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE TROUGHING THROUGH THE
WESTERN STATES PLACING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS
ATOP A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. SUBTLE WAVES WITHIN THE FLOW LOOK TO
KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED ACROSS THE REGION THUS A CONTINUATION
OF DAILY PRECIP CHANCES...AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 021039
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
539 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE
VALID PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH TEMPS TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER. SFC RIDGING WILL BE
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF WHILE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES
REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTH WHICH WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY
THROUGH MONDAY.

DATA REMAIN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A DEFINED WAVE THROUGH NORTHERN
MEXICO ON MONDAY AND LIFTING IT SHARPLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
PLAINS TUES - WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME
WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAINS LIKELY FOCUSED WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE PATTERN FOR LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE TROUGHING THROUGH THE
WESTERN STATES PLACING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS
ATOP A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. SUBTLE WAVES WITHIN THE FLOW LOOK TO
KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED ACROSS THE REGION THUS A CONTINUATION
OF DAILY PRECIP CHANCES...AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 020853
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
353 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH TEMPS TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER. SFC RIDGING WILL BE
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF WHILE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES
REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTH WHICH WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY
THROUGH MONDAY.

DATA REMAIN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A DEFINED WAVE THROUGH NORTHERN
MEXICO ON MONDAY AND LIFTING IT SHARPLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
PLAINS TUES - WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME
WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAINS LIKELY FOCUSED WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE PATTERN FOR LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE TROUGHING THROUGH THE
WESTERN STATES PLACING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS
ATOP A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. SUBTLE WAVES WITHIN THE FLOW LOOK TO
KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED ACROSS THE REGION THUS A CONTINUATION
OF DAILY PRECIP CHANCES...AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  60  82  62 /   0  10   0  10
FSM   80  56  82  58 /   0  10  10  10
MLC   79  59  80  60 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   80  58  82  60 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   76  53  78  57 /   0  10  10  10
BYV   76  54  79  58 /   0  10  10  10
MKO   79  58  80  60 /   0  10   0  10
MIO   78  59  80  61 /  10  10  10  10
F10   79  59  80  60 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   79  56  80  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07





000
FXUS64 KTSA 020853
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
353 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH TEMPS TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER. SFC RIDGING WILL BE
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF WHILE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES
REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTH WHICH WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY
THROUGH MONDAY.

DATA REMAIN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A DEFINED WAVE THROUGH NORTHERN
MEXICO ON MONDAY AND LIFTING IT SHARPLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
PLAINS TUES - WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME
WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAINS LIKELY FOCUSED WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE PATTERN FOR LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE TROUGHING THROUGH THE
WESTERN STATES PLACING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS
ATOP A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. SUBTLE WAVES WITHIN THE FLOW LOOK TO
KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED ACROSS THE REGION THUS A CONTINUATION
OF DAILY PRECIP CHANCES...AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  60  82  62 /   0  10   0  10
FSM   80  56  82  58 /   0  10  10  10
MLC   79  59  80  60 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   80  58  82  60 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   76  53  78  57 /   0  10  10  10
BYV   76  54  79  58 /   0  10  10  10
MKO   79  58  80  60 /   0  10   0  10
MIO   78  59  80  61 /  10  10  10  10
F10   79  59  80  60 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   79  56  80  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07





000
FXUS64 KTSA 020853
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
353 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH TEMPS TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER. SFC RIDGING WILL BE
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF WHILE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES
REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTH WHICH WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY
THROUGH MONDAY.

DATA REMAIN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A DEFINED WAVE THROUGH NORTHERN
MEXICO ON MONDAY AND LIFTING IT SHARPLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
PLAINS TUES - WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME
WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAINS LIKELY FOCUSED WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE PATTERN FOR LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE TROUGHING THROUGH THE
WESTERN STATES PLACING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS
ATOP A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. SUBTLE WAVES WITHIN THE FLOW LOOK TO
KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED ACROSS THE REGION THUS A CONTINUATION
OF DAILY PRECIP CHANCES...AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  60  82  62 /   0  10   0  10
FSM   80  56  82  58 /   0  10  10  10
MLC   79  59  80  60 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   80  58  82  60 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   76  53  78  57 /   0  10  10  10
BYV   76  54  79  58 /   0  10  10  10
MKO   79  58  80  60 /   0  10   0  10
MIO   78  59  80  61 /  10  10  10  10
F10   79  59  80  60 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   79  56  80  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07





000
FXUS64 KTSA 020853
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
353 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH TEMPS TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER. SFC RIDGING WILL BE
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF WHILE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES
REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTH WHICH WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY
THROUGH MONDAY.

DATA REMAIN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A DEFINED WAVE THROUGH NORTHERN
MEXICO ON MONDAY AND LIFTING IT SHARPLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
PLAINS TUES - WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME
WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAINS LIKELY FOCUSED WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE PATTERN FOR LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE TROUGHING THROUGH THE
WESTERN STATES PLACING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS
ATOP A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. SUBTLE WAVES WITHIN THE FLOW LOOK TO
KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED ACROSS THE REGION THUS A CONTINUATION
OF DAILY PRECIP CHANCES...AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  60  82  62 /   0  10   0  10
FSM   80  56  82  58 /   0  10  10  10
MLC   79  59  80  60 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   80  58  82  60 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   76  53  78  57 /   0  10  10  10
BYV   76  54  79  58 /   0  10  10  10
MKO   79  58  80  60 /   0  10   0  10
MIO   78  59  80  61 /  10  10  10  10
F10   79  59  80  60 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   79  56  80  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07





000
FXUS64 KOUN 020828
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
328 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS AND ROCKIES YESTERDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL THIN
THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON BUT ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FORM TO
OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT
CHANCES ARE LOW.

AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF LIGHT WINDS...SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE
SUNDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US. AS THIS SYSTEM EJECTS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF OKLAOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM NEAR A DRYLINE
IN FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA/EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. A SIMILAR SETUP WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  80  59  82  61 /   0   0   0  10
HOBART OK         81  57  83  61 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  81  58  83  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           83  57  86  59 /   0  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     82  60  85  61 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         80  58  81  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 020828
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
328 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS AND ROCKIES YESTERDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL THIN
THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON BUT ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FORM TO
OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT
CHANCES ARE LOW.

AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF LIGHT WINDS...SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE
SUNDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US. AS THIS SYSTEM EJECTS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF OKLAOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM NEAR A DRYLINE
IN FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA/EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. A SIMILAR SETUP WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  80  59  82  61 /   0   0   0  10
HOBART OK         81  57  83  61 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  81  58  83  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           83  57  86  59 /   0  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     82  60  85  61 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         80  58  81  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 020541
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1241 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED PRECIP/WX...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SLIGHT 850MB LIFT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO FAR NWRN OK... WITH A FEW
RETURNS ON KVNX OVER THE OK PANHANDLE. HOWEVER... REMAIN UNCERTAIN
AS TO WHETHER MUCH... IF ANY... OF THIS PRECIP IS REACHING THE
GROUND GIVEN WEAK 700MB SUPPORT. THEREFORE... DECIDED TO CARRY
SPRINKLES THROUGH 09Z... ASSESSING THE SITUATION AS TIME
PROGRESSES.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1209 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS CONTINUES TO
DECREASE. OTHERWISE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTH WIND OVERNIGHT WILL
INCREASE ON SATURDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT LIGHT RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING. HOWEVER...SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW A WEAKENING TREND IN
THE EXISTING RAIN AREA NOW OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS...SOUTHEAST
COLORADO...INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW
DIMINISHING SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION FARTHER EAST...SO IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE RAIN WILL FALL IN OUR FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. WILL LEAVE POPS...WEATHER...ETC. AS IS FOR NOW...BUT
WILL UPDATE LATER IF PRECIPITATION IS MORE RESILIENT THAN
EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
02/00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT FORECAST PERIOD. INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...PRIMARILY AOA 15KFT. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 14Z WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25-30KTS NW/W-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FOR MOST OF AFTERNOON. GUSTS
AROUND 20KTS REST OF TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NICE WEEKEND AHEAD... ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

LIGHT RAIN IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH FAR NW
PORTIONS OF THE FA TONIGHT BUT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE/REMAIN OUT
OF THE AREA SO FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ON SUNDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IN FAR NORTHERN OK BUT OTHERWISE A NICE WEEKEND AHEAD
FOR THE FA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
80S.

MODELS SHOW UPPER SYSTEM COMING ONSHORE OVER CA AND BAJA LATE THIS
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK... BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FA WILL
HAVE A CHANCE MONDAY BUT CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE
FA WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK FOR AT LEAST
PARTS OF THE FA. MODELS DIFFER FROM RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH OTHER
WITH RESPECT TO THE NEXT SYSTEM`S PATH... TIMING... ETC. THE GFS
SHOWS ONCE THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA... SW FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE NEXT WEEK. IF
THIS OCCURS... MAY GET AT LEAST A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN TOWARDS
NEXT WEEKEND AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS. MEANWHILE... THE CURRENT RUN OF
THE ECMWF HAS THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN U.S.
THAT BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW AND SLOWLY MEANDERS EAST. IF THIS
OCCURS... A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIKELY. DESPITE
THESE DIFFERENCES... BOTH MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE RAIN/HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT OF THESE SYSTEMS. HOWEVER... IT IS MAY
SO SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE TO SEE
HOW THINGS DEVELOP NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  80  59  82  61 /   0   0   0  10
HOBART OK         81  57  83  61 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  81  58  83  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           83  57  86  59 /   0  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     82  60  85  61 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         80  58  81  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/06




000
FXUS64 KOUN 020541
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1241 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED PRECIP/WX...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SLIGHT 850MB LIFT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO FAR NWRN OK... WITH A FEW
RETURNS ON KVNX OVER THE OK PANHANDLE. HOWEVER... REMAIN UNCERTAIN
AS TO WHETHER MUCH... IF ANY... OF THIS PRECIP IS REACHING THE
GROUND GIVEN WEAK 700MB SUPPORT. THEREFORE... DECIDED TO CARRY
SPRINKLES THROUGH 09Z... ASSESSING THE SITUATION AS TIME
PROGRESSES.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1209 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS CONTINUES TO
DECREASE. OTHERWISE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTH WIND OVERNIGHT WILL
INCREASE ON SATURDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT LIGHT RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING. HOWEVER...SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW A WEAKENING TREND IN
THE EXISTING RAIN AREA NOW OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS...SOUTHEAST
COLORADO...INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW
DIMINISHING SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION FARTHER EAST...SO IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE RAIN WILL FALL IN OUR FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. WILL LEAVE POPS...WEATHER...ETC. AS IS FOR NOW...BUT
WILL UPDATE LATER IF PRECIPITATION IS MORE RESILIENT THAN
EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
02/00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT FORECAST PERIOD. INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...PRIMARILY AOA 15KFT. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 14Z WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25-30KTS NW/W-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FOR MOST OF AFTERNOON. GUSTS
AROUND 20KTS REST OF TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NICE WEEKEND AHEAD... ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

LIGHT RAIN IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH FAR NW
PORTIONS OF THE FA TONIGHT BUT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE/REMAIN OUT
OF THE AREA SO FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ON SUNDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IN FAR NORTHERN OK BUT OTHERWISE A NICE WEEKEND AHEAD
FOR THE FA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
80S.

MODELS SHOW UPPER SYSTEM COMING ONSHORE OVER CA AND BAJA LATE THIS
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK... BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FA WILL
HAVE A CHANCE MONDAY BUT CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE
FA WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK FOR AT LEAST
PARTS OF THE FA. MODELS DIFFER FROM RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH OTHER
WITH RESPECT TO THE NEXT SYSTEM`S PATH... TIMING... ETC. THE GFS
SHOWS ONCE THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA... SW FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE NEXT WEEK. IF
THIS OCCURS... MAY GET AT LEAST A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN TOWARDS
NEXT WEEKEND AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS. MEANWHILE... THE CURRENT RUN OF
THE ECMWF HAS THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN U.S.
THAT BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW AND SLOWLY MEANDERS EAST. IF THIS
OCCURS... A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIKELY. DESPITE
THESE DIFFERENCES... BOTH MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE RAIN/HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT OF THESE SYSTEMS. HOWEVER... IT IS MAY
SO SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE TO SEE
HOW THINGS DEVELOP NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  80  59  82  61 /   0   0   0  10
HOBART OK         81  57  83  61 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  81  58  83  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           83  57  86  59 /   0  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     82  60  85  61 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         80  58  81  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/06




000
FXUS64 KOUN 020541
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1241 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED PRECIP/WX...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SLIGHT 850MB LIFT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO FAR NWRN OK... WITH A FEW
RETURNS ON KVNX OVER THE OK PANHANDLE. HOWEVER... REMAIN UNCERTAIN
AS TO WHETHER MUCH... IF ANY... OF THIS PRECIP IS REACHING THE
GROUND GIVEN WEAK 700MB SUPPORT. THEREFORE... DECIDED TO CARRY
SPRINKLES THROUGH 09Z... ASSESSING THE SITUATION AS TIME
PROGRESSES.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1209 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS CONTINUES TO
DECREASE. OTHERWISE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTH WIND OVERNIGHT WILL
INCREASE ON SATURDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT LIGHT RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING. HOWEVER...SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW A WEAKENING TREND IN
THE EXISTING RAIN AREA NOW OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS...SOUTHEAST
COLORADO...INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW
DIMINISHING SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION FARTHER EAST...SO IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE RAIN WILL FALL IN OUR FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. WILL LEAVE POPS...WEATHER...ETC. AS IS FOR NOW...BUT
WILL UPDATE LATER IF PRECIPITATION IS MORE RESILIENT THAN
EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
02/00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT FORECAST PERIOD. INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...PRIMARILY AOA 15KFT. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 14Z WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25-30KTS NW/W-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FOR MOST OF AFTERNOON. GUSTS
AROUND 20KTS REST OF TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NICE WEEKEND AHEAD... ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

LIGHT RAIN IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH FAR NW
PORTIONS OF THE FA TONIGHT BUT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE/REMAIN OUT
OF THE AREA SO FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ON SUNDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IN FAR NORTHERN OK BUT OTHERWISE A NICE WEEKEND AHEAD
FOR THE FA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
80S.

MODELS SHOW UPPER SYSTEM COMING ONSHORE OVER CA AND BAJA LATE THIS
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK... BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FA WILL
HAVE A CHANCE MONDAY BUT CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE
FA WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK FOR AT LEAST
PARTS OF THE FA. MODELS DIFFER FROM RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH OTHER
WITH RESPECT TO THE NEXT SYSTEM`S PATH... TIMING... ETC. THE GFS
SHOWS ONCE THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA... SW FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE NEXT WEEK. IF
THIS OCCURS... MAY GET AT LEAST A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN TOWARDS
NEXT WEEKEND AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS. MEANWHILE... THE CURRENT RUN OF
THE ECMWF HAS THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN U.S.
THAT BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW AND SLOWLY MEANDERS EAST. IF THIS
OCCURS... A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIKELY. DESPITE
THESE DIFFERENCES... BOTH MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE RAIN/HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT OF THESE SYSTEMS. HOWEVER... IT IS MAY
SO SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE TO SEE
HOW THINGS DEVELOP NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  80  59  82  61 /   0   0   0  10
HOBART OK         81  57  83  61 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  81  58  83  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           83  57  86  59 /   0  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     82  60  85  61 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         80  58  81  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/06




000
FXUS64 KOUN 020541
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1241 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED PRECIP/WX...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SLIGHT 850MB LIFT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO FAR NWRN OK... WITH A FEW
RETURNS ON KVNX OVER THE OK PANHANDLE. HOWEVER... REMAIN UNCERTAIN
AS TO WHETHER MUCH... IF ANY... OF THIS PRECIP IS REACHING THE
GROUND GIVEN WEAK 700MB SUPPORT. THEREFORE... DECIDED TO CARRY
SPRINKLES THROUGH 09Z... ASSESSING THE SITUATION AS TIME
PROGRESSES.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1209 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS CONTINUES TO
DECREASE. OTHERWISE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTH WIND OVERNIGHT WILL
INCREASE ON SATURDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT LIGHT RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING. HOWEVER...SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW A WEAKENING TREND IN
THE EXISTING RAIN AREA NOW OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS...SOUTHEAST
COLORADO...INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW
DIMINISHING SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION FARTHER EAST...SO IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE RAIN WILL FALL IN OUR FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. WILL LEAVE POPS...WEATHER...ETC. AS IS FOR NOW...BUT
WILL UPDATE LATER IF PRECIPITATION IS MORE RESILIENT THAN
EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
02/00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT FORECAST PERIOD. INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...PRIMARILY AOA 15KFT. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 14Z WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25-30KTS NW/W-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FOR MOST OF AFTERNOON. GUSTS
AROUND 20KTS REST OF TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NICE WEEKEND AHEAD... ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

LIGHT RAIN IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH FAR NW
PORTIONS OF THE FA TONIGHT BUT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE/REMAIN OUT
OF THE AREA SO FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ON SUNDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IN FAR NORTHERN OK BUT OTHERWISE A NICE WEEKEND AHEAD
FOR THE FA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
80S.

MODELS SHOW UPPER SYSTEM COMING ONSHORE OVER CA AND BAJA LATE THIS
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK... BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FA WILL
HAVE A CHANCE MONDAY BUT CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE
FA WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK FOR AT LEAST
PARTS OF THE FA. MODELS DIFFER FROM RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH OTHER
WITH RESPECT TO THE NEXT SYSTEM`S PATH... TIMING... ETC. THE GFS
SHOWS ONCE THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA... SW FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE NEXT WEEK. IF
THIS OCCURS... MAY GET AT LEAST A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN TOWARDS
NEXT WEEKEND AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS. MEANWHILE... THE CURRENT RUN OF
THE ECMWF HAS THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN U.S.
THAT BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW AND SLOWLY MEANDERS EAST. IF THIS
OCCURS... A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIKELY. DESPITE
THESE DIFFERENCES... BOTH MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE RAIN/HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT OF THESE SYSTEMS. HOWEVER... IT IS MAY
SO SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE TO SEE
HOW THINGS DEVELOP NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  80  59  82  61 /   0   0   0  10
HOBART OK         81  57  83  61 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  81  58  83  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           83  57  86  59 /   0  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     82  60  85  61 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         80  58  81  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/06




000
FXUS64 KOUN 020509
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1209 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS CONTINUES TO
DECREASE. OTHERWISE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTH WIND OVERNIGHT WILL
INCREASE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT LIGHT RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING. HOWEVER...SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW A WEAKENING TREND IN
THE EXISTING RAIN AREA NOW OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS...SOUTHEAST
COLORADO...INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW
DIMINISHING SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION FARTHER EAST...SO IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE RAIN WILL FALL IN OUR FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. WILL LEAVE POPS...WEATHER...ETC. AS IS FOR NOW...BUT
WILL UPDATE LATER IF PRECIPITATION IS MORE RESILIENT THAN
EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
02/00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT FORECAST PERIOD. INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...PRIMARILY AOA 15KFT. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 14Z WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25-30KTS NW/W-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FOR MOST OF AFTERNOON. GUSTS
AROUND 20KTS REST OF TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NICE WEEKEND AHEAD... ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

LIGHT RAIN IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH FAR NW
PORTIONS OF THE FA TONIGHT BUT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE/REMAIN OUT
OF THE AREA SO FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ON SUNDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IN FAR NORTHERN OK BUT OTHERWISE A NICE WEEKEND AHEAD
FOR THE FA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
80S.

MODELS SHOW UPPER SYSTEM COMING ONSHORE OVER CA AND BAJA LATE THIS
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK... BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FA WILL
HAVE A CHANCE MONDAY BUT CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE
FA WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK FOR AT LEAST
PARTS OF THE FA. MODELS DIFFER FROM RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH OTHER
WITH RESPECT TO THE NEXT SYSTEM`S PATH... TIMING... ETC. THE GFS
SHOWS ONCE THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA... SW FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE NEXT WEEK. IF
THIS OCCURS... MAY GET AT LEAST A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN TOWARDS
NEXT WEEKEND AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS. MEANWHILE... THE CURRENT RUN OF
THE ECMWF HAS THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN U.S.
THAT BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW AND SLOWLY MEANDERS EAST. IF THIS
OCCURS... A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIKELY. DESPITE
THESE DIFFERENCES... BOTH MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE RAIN/HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT OF THESE SYSTEMS. HOWEVER... IT IS MAY
SO SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE TO SEE
HOW THINGS DEVELOP NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  82  61  79 /   0   0  10  10
HOBART OK         57  83  61  79 /   0   0  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  58  83  61  79 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK           57  86  59  80 /  10  10  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     60  85  61  82 /   0   0  10  20
DURANT OK         58  81  60  78 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 020509
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1209 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS CONTINUES TO
DECREASE. OTHERWISE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTH WIND OVERNIGHT WILL
INCREASE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT LIGHT RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING. HOWEVER...SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW A WEAKENING TREND IN
THE EXISTING RAIN AREA NOW OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS...SOUTHEAST
COLORADO...INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW
DIMINISHING SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION FARTHER EAST...SO IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE RAIN WILL FALL IN OUR FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. WILL LEAVE POPS...WEATHER...ETC. AS IS FOR NOW...BUT
WILL UPDATE LATER IF PRECIPITATION IS MORE RESILIENT THAN
EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
02/00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT FORECAST PERIOD. INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...PRIMARILY AOA 15KFT. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 14Z WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25-30KTS NW/W-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FOR MOST OF AFTERNOON. GUSTS
AROUND 20KTS REST OF TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NICE WEEKEND AHEAD... ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

LIGHT RAIN IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH FAR NW
PORTIONS OF THE FA TONIGHT BUT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE/REMAIN OUT
OF THE AREA SO FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ON SUNDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IN FAR NORTHERN OK BUT OTHERWISE A NICE WEEKEND AHEAD
FOR THE FA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
80S.

MODELS SHOW UPPER SYSTEM COMING ONSHORE OVER CA AND BAJA LATE THIS
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK... BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FA WILL
HAVE A CHANCE MONDAY BUT CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE
FA WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK FOR AT LEAST
PARTS OF THE FA. MODELS DIFFER FROM RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH OTHER
WITH RESPECT TO THE NEXT SYSTEM`S PATH... TIMING... ETC. THE GFS
SHOWS ONCE THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA... SW FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE NEXT WEEK. IF
THIS OCCURS... MAY GET AT LEAST A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN TOWARDS
NEXT WEEKEND AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS. MEANWHILE... THE CURRENT RUN OF
THE ECMWF HAS THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN U.S.
THAT BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW AND SLOWLY MEANDERS EAST. IF THIS
OCCURS... A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIKELY. DESPITE
THESE DIFFERENCES... BOTH MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE RAIN/HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT OF THESE SYSTEMS. HOWEVER... IT IS MAY
SO SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE TO SEE
HOW THINGS DEVELOP NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  82  61  79 /   0   0  10  10
HOBART OK         57  83  61  79 /   0   0  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  58  83  61  79 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK           57  86  59  80 /  10  10  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     60  85  61  82 /   0   0  10  20
DURANT OK         58  81  60  78 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 020509
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1209 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS CONTINUES TO
DECREASE. OTHERWISE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTH WIND OVERNIGHT WILL
INCREASE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT LIGHT RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING. HOWEVER...SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW A WEAKENING TREND IN
THE EXISTING RAIN AREA NOW OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS...SOUTHEAST
COLORADO...INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW
DIMINISHING SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION FARTHER EAST...SO IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE RAIN WILL FALL IN OUR FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. WILL LEAVE POPS...WEATHER...ETC. AS IS FOR NOW...BUT
WILL UPDATE LATER IF PRECIPITATION IS MORE RESILIENT THAN
EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
02/00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT FORECAST PERIOD. INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...PRIMARILY AOA 15KFT. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 14Z WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25-30KTS NW/W-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FOR MOST OF AFTERNOON. GUSTS
AROUND 20KTS REST OF TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NICE WEEKEND AHEAD... ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

LIGHT RAIN IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH FAR NW
PORTIONS OF THE FA TONIGHT BUT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE/REMAIN OUT
OF THE AREA SO FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ON SUNDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IN FAR NORTHERN OK BUT OTHERWISE A NICE WEEKEND AHEAD
FOR THE FA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
80S.

MODELS SHOW UPPER SYSTEM COMING ONSHORE OVER CA AND BAJA LATE THIS
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK... BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FA WILL
HAVE A CHANCE MONDAY BUT CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE
FA WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK FOR AT LEAST
PARTS OF THE FA. MODELS DIFFER FROM RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH OTHER
WITH RESPECT TO THE NEXT SYSTEM`S PATH... TIMING... ETC. THE GFS
SHOWS ONCE THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA... SW FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE NEXT WEEK. IF
THIS OCCURS... MAY GET AT LEAST A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN TOWARDS
NEXT WEEKEND AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS. MEANWHILE... THE CURRENT RUN OF
THE ECMWF HAS THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN U.S.
THAT BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW AND SLOWLY MEANDERS EAST. IF THIS
OCCURS... A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIKELY. DESPITE
THESE DIFFERENCES... BOTH MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE RAIN/HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT OF THESE SYSTEMS. HOWEVER... IT IS MAY
SO SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE TO SEE
HOW THINGS DEVELOP NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  82  61  79 /   0   0  10  10
HOBART OK         57  83  61  79 /   0   0  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  58  83  61  79 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK           57  86  59  80 /  10  10  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     60  85  61  82 /   0   0  10  20
DURANT OK         58  81  60  78 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 020509
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1209 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS CONTINUES TO
DECREASE. OTHERWISE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTH WIND OVERNIGHT WILL
INCREASE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT LIGHT RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING. HOWEVER...SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW A WEAKENING TREND IN
THE EXISTING RAIN AREA NOW OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS...SOUTHEAST
COLORADO...INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW
DIMINISHING SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION FARTHER EAST...SO IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE RAIN WILL FALL IN OUR FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. WILL LEAVE POPS...WEATHER...ETC. AS IS FOR NOW...BUT
WILL UPDATE LATER IF PRECIPITATION IS MORE RESILIENT THAN
EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
02/00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT FORECAST PERIOD. INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...PRIMARILY AOA 15KFT. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 14Z WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25-30KTS NW/W-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FOR MOST OF AFTERNOON. GUSTS
AROUND 20KTS REST OF TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NICE WEEKEND AHEAD... ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

LIGHT RAIN IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH FAR NW
PORTIONS OF THE FA TONIGHT BUT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE/REMAIN OUT
OF THE AREA SO FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ON SUNDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IN FAR NORTHERN OK BUT OTHERWISE A NICE WEEKEND AHEAD
FOR THE FA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
80S.

MODELS SHOW UPPER SYSTEM COMING ONSHORE OVER CA AND BAJA LATE THIS
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK... BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FA WILL
HAVE A CHANCE MONDAY BUT CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE
FA WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK FOR AT LEAST
PARTS OF THE FA. MODELS DIFFER FROM RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH OTHER
WITH RESPECT TO THE NEXT SYSTEM`S PATH... TIMING... ETC. THE GFS
SHOWS ONCE THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA... SW FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE NEXT WEEK. IF
THIS OCCURS... MAY GET AT LEAST A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN TOWARDS
NEXT WEEKEND AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS. MEANWHILE... THE CURRENT RUN OF
THE ECMWF HAS THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN U.S.
THAT BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW AND SLOWLY MEANDERS EAST. IF THIS
OCCURS... A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIKELY. DESPITE
THESE DIFFERENCES... BOTH MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE RAIN/HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT OF THESE SYSTEMS. HOWEVER... IT IS MAY
SO SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE TO SEE
HOW THINGS DEVELOP NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  82  61  79 /   0   0  10  10
HOBART OK         57  83  61  79 /   0   0  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  58  83  61  79 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK           57  86  59  80 /  10  10  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     60  85  61  82 /   0   0  10  20
DURANT OK         58  81  60  78 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KTSA 020454
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1154 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND SCT
CU AT 5-6 KFT SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 734 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MINOR CHANGES TO CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AS SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO
ADDITIONAL UPDATES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14







000
FXUS64 KTSA 020454
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1154 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND SCT
CU AT 5-6 KFT SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 734 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MINOR CHANGES TO CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AS SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO
ADDITIONAL UPDATES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14






000
FXUS64 KTSA 020454
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1154 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND SCT
CU AT 5-6 KFT SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 734 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MINOR CHANGES TO CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AS SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO
ADDITIONAL UPDATES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14







000
FXUS64 KOUN 020226
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
926 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT LIGHT RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING. HOWEVER...SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW A WEAKENING TREND IN
THE EXISTING RAIN AREA NOW OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS...SOUTHEAST
COLORADO...INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW
DIMINISHING SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION FARTHER EAST...SO IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE RAIN WILL FALL IN OUR FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. WILL LEAVE POPS...WEATHER...ETC. AS IS FOR NOW...BUT
WILL UPDATE LATER IF PRECIPITATION IS MORE RESILIENT THAN
EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
02/00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT FORECAST PERIOD. INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...PRIMARILY AOA 15KFT. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 14Z WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25-30KTS NW/W-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FOR MOST OF AFTERNOON. GUSTS
AROUND 20KTS REST OF TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NICE WEEKEND AHEAD... ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

LIGHT RAIN IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH FAR NW
PORTIONS OF THE FA TONIGHT BUT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE/REMAIN OUT
OF THE AREA SO FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ON SUNDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IN FAR NORTHERN OK BUT OTHERWISE A NICE WEEKEND AHEAD
FOR THE FA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
80S.

MODELS SHOW UPPER SYSTEM COMING ONSHORE OVER CA AND BAJA LATE THIS
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK... BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FA WILL
HAVE A CHANCE MONDAY BUT CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE
FA WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK FOR AT LEAST
PARTS OF THE FA. MODELS DIFFER FROM RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH OTHER
WITH RESPECT TO THE NEXT SYSTEM`S PATH... TIMING... ETC. THE GFS
SHOWS ONCE THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA... SW FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE NEXT WEEK. IF
THIS OCCURS... MAY GET AT LEAST A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN TOWARDS
NEXT WEEKEND AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS. MEANWHILE... THE CURRENT RUN OF
THE ECMWF HAS THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN U.S.
THAT BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW AND SLOWLY MEANDERS EAST. IF THIS
OCCURS... A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIKELY. DESPITE
THESE DIFFERENCES... BOTH MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE RAIN/HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT OF THESE SYSTEMS. HOWEVER... IT IS MAY
SO SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE TO SEE
HOW THINGS DEVELOP NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  80  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         53  81  57  83 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  54  81  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           54  83  57  86 /  10   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     55  82  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         54  80  58  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 020226
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
926 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT LIGHT RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING. HOWEVER...SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW A WEAKENING TREND IN
THE EXISTING RAIN AREA NOW OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS...SOUTHEAST
COLORADO...INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW
DIMINISHING SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION FARTHER EAST...SO IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE RAIN WILL FALL IN OUR FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. WILL LEAVE POPS...WEATHER...ETC. AS IS FOR NOW...BUT
WILL UPDATE LATER IF PRECIPITATION IS MORE RESILIENT THAN
EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
02/00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT FORECAST PERIOD. INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...PRIMARILY AOA 15KFT. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 14Z WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25-30KTS NW/W-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FOR MOST OF AFTERNOON. GUSTS
AROUND 20KTS REST OF TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NICE WEEKEND AHEAD... ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

LIGHT RAIN IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH FAR NW
PORTIONS OF THE FA TONIGHT BUT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE/REMAIN OUT
OF THE AREA SO FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ON SUNDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IN FAR NORTHERN OK BUT OTHERWISE A NICE WEEKEND AHEAD
FOR THE FA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
80S.

MODELS SHOW UPPER SYSTEM COMING ONSHORE OVER CA AND BAJA LATE THIS
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK... BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FA WILL
HAVE A CHANCE MONDAY BUT CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE
FA WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK FOR AT LEAST
PARTS OF THE FA. MODELS DIFFER FROM RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH OTHER
WITH RESPECT TO THE NEXT SYSTEM`S PATH... TIMING... ETC. THE GFS
SHOWS ONCE THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA... SW FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE NEXT WEEK. IF
THIS OCCURS... MAY GET AT LEAST A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN TOWARDS
NEXT WEEKEND AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS. MEANWHILE... THE CURRENT RUN OF
THE ECMWF HAS THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN U.S.
THAT BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW AND SLOWLY MEANDERS EAST. IF THIS
OCCURS... A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIKELY. DESPITE
THESE DIFFERENCES... BOTH MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE RAIN/HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT OF THESE SYSTEMS. HOWEVER... IT IS MAY
SO SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE TO SEE
HOW THINGS DEVELOP NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  80  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         53  81  57  83 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  54  81  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           54  83  57  86 /  10   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     55  82  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         54  80  58  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11



000
FXUS64 KTSA 020034
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
734 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
MINOR CHANGES TO CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AS SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO
ADDITIONAL UPDATES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 020034
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
734 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
MINOR CHANGES TO CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AS SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO
ADDITIONAL UPDATES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12







000
FXUS64 KTSA 020034
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
734 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
MINOR CHANGES TO CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AS SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO
ADDITIONAL UPDATES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12






000
FXUS64 KOUN 012338
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
638 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
02/00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT FORECAST PERIOD. INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...PRIMARILY AOA 15KFT. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 14Z WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25-30KTS NW/W-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FOR MOST OF AFTERNOON. GUSTS
AROUND 20KTS REST OF TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NICE WEEKEND AHEAD... ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

LIGHT RAIN IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH FAR NW
PORTIONS OF THE FA TONIGHT BUT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE/REMAIN OUT
OF THE AREA SO FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ON SUNDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IN FAR NORTHERN OK BUT OTHERWISE A NICE WEEKEND AHEAD
FOR THE FA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
80S.

MODELS SHOW UPPER SYSTEM COMING ONSHORE OVER CA AND BAJA LATE THIS
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK... BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FA WILL
HAVE A CHANCE MONDAY BUT CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE
FA WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK FOR AT LEAST
PARTS OF THE FA. MODELS DIFFER FROM RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH OTHER
WITH RESPECT TO THE NEXT SYSTEM`S PATH... TIMING... ETC. THE GFS
SHOWS ONCE THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA... SW FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE NEXT WEEK. IF
THIS OCCURS... MAY GET AT LEAST A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN TOWARDS
NEXT WEEKEND AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS. MEANWHILE... THE CURRENT RUN OF
THE ECMWF HAS THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN U.S.
THAT BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW AND SLOWLY MEANDERS EAST. IF THIS
OCCURS... A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIKELY. DESPITE
THESE DIFFERENCES... BOTH MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE RAIN/HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT OF THESE SYSTEMS. HOWEVER... IT IS MAY
SO SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE TO SEE
HOW THINGS DEVELOP NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  80  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         53  81  57  83 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  54  81  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           54  83  57  86 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     55  82  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         54  80  58  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 012338
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
638 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
02/00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT FORECAST PERIOD. INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...PRIMARILY AOA 15KFT. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 14Z WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25-30KTS NW/W-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FOR MOST OF AFTERNOON. GUSTS
AROUND 20KTS REST OF TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NICE WEEKEND AHEAD... ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

LIGHT RAIN IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH FAR NW
PORTIONS OF THE FA TONIGHT BUT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE/REMAIN OUT
OF THE AREA SO FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ON SUNDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IN FAR NORTHERN OK BUT OTHERWISE A NICE WEEKEND AHEAD
FOR THE FA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
80S.

MODELS SHOW UPPER SYSTEM COMING ONSHORE OVER CA AND BAJA LATE THIS
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK... BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FA WILL
HAVE A CHANCE MONDAY BUT CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE
FA WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK FOR AT LEAST
PARTS OF THE FA. MODELS DIFFER FROM RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH OTHER
WITH RESPECT TO THE NEXT SYSTEM`S PATH... TIMING... ETC. THE GFS
SHOWS ONCE THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA... SW FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE NEXT WEEK. IF
THIS OCCURS... MAY GET AT LEAST A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN TOWARDS
NEXT WEEKEND AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS. MEANWHILE... THE CURRENT RUN OF
THE ECMWF HAS THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN U.S.
THAT BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW AND SLOWLY MEANDERS EAST. IF THIS
OCCURS... A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIKELY. DESPITE
THESE DIFFERENCES... BOTH MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE RAIN/HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT OF THESE SYSTEMS. HOWEVER... IT IS MAY
SO SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE TO SEE
HOW THINGS DEVELOP NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  80  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         53  81  57  83 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  54  81  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           54  83  57  86 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     55  82  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         54  80  58  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 012338
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
638 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
02/00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT FORECAST PERIOD. INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...PRIMARILY AOA 15KFT. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 14Z WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25-30KTS NW/W-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FOR MOST OF AFTERNOON. GUSTS
AROUND 20KTS REST OF TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NICE WEEKEND AHEAD... ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

LIGHT RAIN IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH FAR NW
PORTIONS OF THE FA TONIGHT BUT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE/REMAIN OUT
OF THE AREA SO FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ON SUNDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IN FAR NORTHERN OK BUT OTHERWISE A NICE WEEKEND AHEAD
FOR THE FA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
80S.

MODELS SHOW UPPER SYSTEM COMING ONSHORE OVER CA AND BAJA LATE THIS
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK... BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FA WILL
HAVE A CHANCE MONDAY BUT CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE
FA WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK FOR AT LEAST
PARTS OF THE FA. MODELS DIFFER FROM RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH OTHER
WITH RESPECT TO THE NEXT SYSTEM`S PATH... TIMING... ETC. THE GFS
SHOWS ONCE THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA... SW FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE NEXT WEEK. IF
THIS OCCURS... MAY GET AT LEAST A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN TOWARDS
NEXT WEEKEND AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS. MEANWHILE... THE CURRENT RUN OF
THE ECMWF HAS THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN U.S.
THAT BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW AND SLOWLY MEANDERS EAST. IF THIS
OCCURS... A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIKELY. DESPITE
THESE DIFFERENCES... BOTH MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE RAIN/HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT OF THESE SYSTEMS. HOWEVER... IT IS MAY
SO SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE TO SEE
HOW THINGS DEVELOP NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  80  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         53  81  57  83 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  54  81  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           54  83  57  86 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     55  82  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         54  80  58  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 012338
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
638 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
02/00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT FORECAST PERIOD. INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...PRIMARILY AOA 15KFT. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 14Z WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25-30KTS NW/W-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FOR MOST OF AFTERNOON. GUSTS
AROUND 20KTS REST OF TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NICE WEEKEND AHEAD... ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

LIGHT RAIN IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH FAR NW
PORTIONS OF THE FA TONIGHT BUT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE/REMAIN OUT
OF THE AREA SO FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ON SUNDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IN FAR NORTHERN OK BUT OTHERWISE A NICE WEEKEND AHEAD
FOR THE FA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
80S.

MODELS SHOW UPPER SYSTEM COMING ONSHORE OVER CA AND BAJA LATE THIS
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK... BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FA WILL
HAVE A CHANCE MONDAY BUT CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE
FA WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK FOR AT LEAST
PARTS OF THE FA. MODELS DIFFER FROM RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH OTHER
WITH RESPECT TO THE NEXT SYSTEM`S PATH... TIMING... ETC. THE GFS
SHOWS ONCE THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA... SW FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE NEXT WEEK. IF
THIS OCCURS... MAY GET AT LEAST A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN TOWARDS
NEXT WEEKEND AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS. MEANWHILE... THE CURRENT RUN OF
THE ECMWF HAS THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN U.S.
THAT BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW AND SLOWLY MEANDERS EAST. IF THIS
OCCURS... A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIKELY. DESPITE
THESE DIFFERENCES... BOTH MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE RAIN/HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT OF THESE SYSTEMS. HOWEVER... IT IS MAY
SO SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE TO SEE
HOW THINGS DEVELOP NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  80  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         53  81  57  83 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  54  81  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           54  83  57  86 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     55  82  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         54  80  58  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 012338
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
638 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
02/00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT FORECAST PERIOD. INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...PRIMARILY AOA 15KFT. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 14Z WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25-30KTS NW/W-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FOR MOST OF AFTERNOON. GUSTS
AROUND 20KTS REST OF TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NICE WEEKEND AHEAD... ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

LIGHT RAIN IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH FAR NW
PORTIONS OF THE FA TONIGHT BUT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE/REMAIN OUT
OF THE AREA SO FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ON SUNDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IN FAR NORTHERN OK BUT OTHERWISE A NICE WEEKEND AHEAD
FOR THE FA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
80S.

MODELS SHOW UPPER SYSTEM COMING ONSHORE OVER CA AND BAJA LATE THIS
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK... BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FA WILL
HAVE A CHANCE MONDAY BUT CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE
FA WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK FOR AT LEAST
PARTS OF THE FA. MODELS DIFFER FROM RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH OTHER
WITH RESPECT TO THE NEXT SYSTEM`S PATH... TIMING... ETC. THE GFS
SHOWS ONCE THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA... SW FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE NEXT WEEK. IF
THIS OCCURS... MAY GET AT LEAST A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN TOWARDS
NEXT WEEKEND AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS. MEANWHILE... THE CURRENT RUN OF
THE ECMWF HAS THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN U.S.
THAT BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW AND SLOWLY MEANDERS EAST. IF THIS
OCCURS... A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIKELY. DESPITE
THESE DIFFERENCES... BOTH MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE RAIN/HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT OF THESE SYSTEMS. HOWEVER... IT IS MAY
SO SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE TO SEE
HOW THINGS DEVELOP NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  80  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         53  81  57  83 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  54  81  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           54  83  57  86 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     55  82  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         54  80  58  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 012338
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
638 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
02/00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT FORECAST PERIOD. INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...PRIMARILY AOA 15KFT. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 14Z WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25-30KTS NW/W-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FOR MOST OF AFTERNOON. GUSTS
AROUND 20KTS REST OF TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NICE WEEKEND AHEAD... ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

LIGHT RAIN IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH FAR NW
PORTIONS OF THE FA TONIGHT BUT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE/REMAIN OUT
OF THE AREA SO FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ON SUNDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IN FAR NORTHERN OK BUT OTHERWISE A NICE WEEKEND AHEAD
FOR THE FA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
80S.

MODELS SHOW UPPER SYSTEM COMING ONSHORE OVER CA AND BAJA LATE THIS
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK... BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FA WILL
HAVE A CHANCE MONDAY BUT CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE
FA WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK FOR AT LEAST
PARTS OF THE FA. MODELS DIFFER FROM RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH OTHER
WITH RESPECT TO THE NEXT SYSTEM`S PATH... TIMING... ETC. THE GFS
SHOWS ONCE THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA... SW FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE NEXT WEEK. IF
THIS OCCURS... MAY GET AT LEAST A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN TOWARDS
NEXT WEEKEND AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS. MEANWHILE... THE CURRENT RUN OF
THE ECMWF HAS THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN U.S.
THAT BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW AND SLOWLY MEANDERS EAST. IF THIS
OCCURS... A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIKELY. DESPITE
THESE DIFFERENCES... BOTH MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE RAIN/HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT OF THESE SYSTEMS. HOWEVER... IT IS MAY
SO SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE TO SEE
HOW THINGS DEVELOP NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  80  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         53  81  57  83 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  54  81  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           54  83  57  86 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     55  82  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         54  80  58  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11




000
FXUS64 KTSA 012325
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
625 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND SCT
CU AT 5-6 KFT SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ASSURE A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. THE MOST NOTICEABLE EFFECT WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN
WE HAVE SEEN THIS FAR THIS SEASON.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES EASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK... UPPER FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASING DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. VARYING DISTURBANCES
IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL BRING INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK
INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING BY ABOUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
TIME OF YEAR... CONDITIONS COULD BE CONDUCIVE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER... NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. THE ONE CAVEAT IS THAT FORECASTS AND CONDITIONS CAN CHANGE A
LOT IN RELATIVELY FEW DAYS THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...14







000
FXUS64 KTSA 012325
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
625 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND SCT
CU AT 5-6 KFT SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ASSURE A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. THE MOST NOTICEABLE EFFECT WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN
WE HAVE SEEN THIS FAR THIS SEASON.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES EASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK... UPPER FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASING DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. VARYING DISTURBANCES
IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL BRING INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK
INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING BY ABOUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
TIME OF YEAR... CONDITIONS COULD BE CONDUCIVE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER... NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. THE ONE CAVEAT IS THAT FORECASTS AND CONDITIONS CAN CHANGE A
LOT IN RELATIVELY FEW DAYS THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...14








000
FXUS64 KTSA 012325
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
625 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND SCT
CU AT 5-6 KFT SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ASSURE A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. THE MOST NOTICEABLE EFFECT WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN
WE HAVE SEEN THIS FAR THIS SEASON.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES EASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK... UPPER FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASING DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. VARYING DISTURBANCES
IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL BRING INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK
INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING BY ABOUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
TIME OF YEAR... CONDITIONS COULD BE CONDUCIVE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER... NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. THE ONE CAVEAT IS THAT FORECASTS AND CONDITIONS CAN CHANGE A
LOT IN RELATIVELY FEW DAYS THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...14








000
FXUS64 KTSA 012325
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
625 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND SCT
CU AT 5-6 KFT SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ASSURE A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. THE MOST NOTICEABLE EFFECT WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN
WE HAVE SEEN THIS FAR THIS SEASON.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES EASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK... UPPER FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASING DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. VARYING DISTURBANCES
IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL BRING INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK
INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING BY ABOUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
TIME OF YEAR... CONDITIONS COULD BE CONDUCIVE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER... NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. THE ONE CAVEAT IS THAT FORECASTS AND CONDITIONS CAN CHANGE A
LOT IN RELATIVELY FEW DAYS THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...14







000
FXUS64 KTSA 011934
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
234 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ASSURE A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. THE MOST NOTICEABLE EFFECT WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN
WE HAVE SEEN THIS FAR THIS SEASON.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES EASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK... UPPER FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASING DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. VARYING DISTURBANCES
IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL BRING INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK
INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING BY ABOUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
TIME OF YEAR... CONDITIONS COULD BE CONDUCIVE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER... NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. THE ONE CAVEAT IS THAT FORECASTS AND CONDITIONS CAN CHANGE A
LOT IN RELATIVELY FEW DAYS THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  80  61  81 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   53  77  56  81 /  10  10   0  10
MLC   55  77  58  80 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   49  79  58  82 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   45  74  52  77 /  10  10   0  10
BYV   48  75  55  78 /   0  10   0  10
MKO   52  78  56  79 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   48  78  56  79 /  10  10  10  10
F10   53  78  58  79 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   53  76  56  78 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 011934
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
234 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ASSURE A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. THE MOST NOTICEABLE EFFECT WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN
WE HAVE SEEN THIS FAR THIS SEASON.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES EASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK... UPPER FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASING DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. VARYING DISTURBANCES
IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL BRING INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK
INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING BY ABOUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
TIME OF YEAR... CONDITIONS COULD BE CONDUCIVE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER... NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. THE ONE CAVEAT IS THAT FORECASTS AND CONDITIONS CAN CHANGE A
LOT IN RELATIVELY FEW DAYS THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  80  61  81 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   53  77  56  81 /  10  10   0  10
MLC   55  77  58  80 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   49  79  58  82 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   45  74  52  77 /  10  10   0  10
BYV   48  75  55  78 /   0  10   0  10
MKO   52  78  56  79 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   48  78  56  79 /  10  10  10  10
F10   53  78  58  79 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   53  76  56  78 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 011934
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
234 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ASSURE A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. THE MOST NOTICEABLE EFFECT WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN
WE HAVE SEEN THIS FAR THIS SEASON.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES EASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK... UPPER FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASING DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. VARYING DISTURBANCES
IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL BRING INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK
INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING BY ABOUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
TIME OF YEAR... CONDITIONS COULD BE CONDUCIVE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER... NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. THE ONE CAVEAT IS THAT FORECASTS AND CONDITIONS CAN CHANGE A
LOT IN RELATIVELY FEW DAYS THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  80  61  81 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   53  77  56  81 /  10  10   0  10
MLC   55  77  58  80 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   49  79  58  82 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   45  74  52  77 /  10  10   0  10
BYV   48  75  55  78 /   0  10   0  10
MKO   52  78  56  79 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   48  78  56  79 /  10  10  10  10
F10   53  78  58  79 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   53  76  56  78 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 011934
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
234 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ASSURE A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. THE MOST NOTICEABLE EFFECT WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN
WE HAVE SEEN THIS FAR THIS SEASON.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES EASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK... UPPER FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASING DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. VARYING DISTURBANCES
IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL BRING INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK
INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING BY ABOUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
TIME OF YEAR... CONDITIONS COULD BE CONDUCIVE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER... NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. THE ONE CAVEAT IS THAT FORECASTS AND CONDITIONS CAN CHANGE A
LOT IN RELATIVELY FEW DAYS THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  80  61  81 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   53  77  56  81 /  10  10   0  10
MLC   55  77  58  80 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   49  79  58  82 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   45  74  52  77 /  10  10   0  10
BYV   48  75  55  78 /   0  10   0  10
MKO   52  78  56  79 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   48  78  56  79 /  10  10  10  10
F10   53  78  58  79 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   53  76  56  78 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 011934
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
234 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ASSURE A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. THE MOST NOTICEABLE EFFECT WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN
WE HAVE SEEN THIS FAR THIS SEASON.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES EASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK... UPPER FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASING DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. VARYING DISTURBANCES
IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL BRING INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK
INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING BY ABOUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
TIME OF YEAR... CONDITIONS COULD BE CONDUCIVE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER... NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. THE ONE CAVEAT IS THAT FORECASTS AND CONDITIONS CAN CHANGE A
LOT IN RELATIVELY FEW DAYS THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  80  61  81 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   53  77  56  81 /  10  10   0  10
MLC   55  77  58  80 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   49  79  58  82 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   45  74  52  77 /  10  10   0  10
BYV   48  75  55  78 /   0  10   0  10
MKO   52  78  56  79 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   48  78  56  79 /  10  10  10  10
F10   53  78  58  79 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   53  76  56  78 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 011934
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
234 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ASSURE A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. THE MOST NOTICEABLE EFFECT WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN
WE HAVE SEEN THIS FAR THIS SEASON.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES EASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK... UPPER FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASING DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. VARYING DISTURBANCES
IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL BRING INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK
INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING BY ABOUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
TIME OF YEAR... CONDITIONS COULD BE CONDUCIVE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER... NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. THE ONE CAVEAT IS THAT FORECASTS AND CONDITIONS CAN CHANGE A
LOT IN RELATIVELY FEW DAYS THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  80  61  81 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   53  77  56  81 /  10  10   0  10
MLC   55  77  58  80 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   49  79  58  82 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   45  74  52  77 /  10  10   0  10
BYV   48  75  55  78 /   0  10   0  10
MKO   52  78  56  79 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   48  78  56  79 /  10  10  10  10
F10   53  78  58  79 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   53  76  56  78 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 011934
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
234 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ASSURE A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. THE MOST NOTICEABLE EFFECT WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN
WE HAVE SEEN THIS FAR THIS SEASON.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES EASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK... UPPER FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASING DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. VARYING DISTURBANCES
IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL BRING INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK
INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING BY ABOUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
TIME OF YEAR... CONDITIONS COULD BE CONDUCIVE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER... NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. THE ONE CAVEAT IS THAT FORECASTS AND CONDITIONS CAN CHANGE A
LOT IN RELATIVELY FEW DAYS THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  80  61  81 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   53  77  56  81 /  10  10   0  10
MLC   55  77  58  80 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   49  79  58  82 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   45  74  52  77 /  10  10   0  10
BYV   48  75  55  78 /   0  10   0  10
MKO   52  78  56  79 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   48  78  56  79 /  10  10  10  10
F10   53  78  58  79 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   53  76  56  78 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 011934
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
234 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ASSURE A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. THE MOST NOTICEABLE EFFECT WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN
WE HAVE SEEN THIS FAR THIS SEASON.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES EASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK... UPPER FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASING DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. VARYING DISTURBANCES
IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL BRING INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK
INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING BY ABOUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
TIME OF YEAR... CONDITIONS COULD BE CONDUCIVE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER... NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. THE ONE CAVEAT IS THAT FORECASTS AND CONDITIONS CAN CHANGE A
LOT IN RELATIVELY FEW DAYS THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  80  61  81 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   53  77  56  81 /  10  10   0  10
MLC   55  77  58  80 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   49  79  58  82 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   45  74  52  77 /  10  10   0  10
BYV   48  75  55  78 /   0  10   0  10
MKO   52  78  56  79 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   48  78  56  79 /  10  10  10  10
F10   53  78  58  79 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   53  76  56  78 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....06






000
FXUS64 KOUN 011927
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
227 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NICE WEEKEND AHEAD... ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

LIGHT RAIN IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH FAR NW
PORTIONS OF THE FA TONIGHT BUT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE/REMAIN OUT
OF THE AREA SO FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ON SUNDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IN FAR NORTHERN OK BUT OTHERWISE A NICE WEEKEND AHEAD
FOR THE FA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
80S.

MODELS SHOW UPPER SYSTEM COMING ONSHORE OVER CA AND BAJA LATE THIS
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK... BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FA WILL
HAVE A CHANCE MONDAY BUT CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE
FA WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK FOR AT LEAST
PARTS OF THE FA. MODELS DIFFER FROM RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH OTHER
WITH RESPECT TO THE NEXT SYSTEM`S PATH... TIMING... ETC. THE GFS
SHOWS ONCE THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA... SW FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE NEXT WEEK. IF
THIS OCCURS... MAY GET AT LEAST A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN TOWARDS
NEXT WEEKEND AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS. MEANWHILE... THE CURRENT RUN OF
THE ECMWF HAS THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN U.S.
THAT BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW AND SLOWLY MEANDERS EAST. IF THIS
OCCURS... A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIKELY. DESPITE
THESE DIFFERENCES... BOTH MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE RAIN/HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT OF THESE SYSTEMS. HOWEVER... IT IS MAY
SO SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE TO SEE
HOW THINGS DEVELOP NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  80  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         53  81  57  83 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  54  81  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           54  83  57  86 /  10   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     55  82  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         54  80  58  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 011927
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
227 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NICE WEEKEND AHEAD... ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

LIGHT RAIN IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH FAR NW
PORTIONS OF THE FA TONIGHT BUT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE/REMAIN OUT
OF THE AREA SO FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ON SUNDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IN FAR NORTHERN OK BUT OTHERWISE A NICE WEEKEND AHEAD
FOR THE FA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
80S.

MODELS SHOW UPPER SYSTEM COMING ONSHORE OVER CA AND BAJA LATE THIS
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK... BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FA WILL
HAVE A CHANCE MONDAY BUT CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE
FA WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK FOR AT LEAST
PARTS OF THE FA. MODELS DIFFER FROM RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH OTHER
WITH RESPECT TO THE NEXT SYSTEM`S PATH... TIMING... ETC. THE GFS
SHOWS ONCE THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA... SW FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE NEXT WEEK. IF
THIS OCCURS... MAY GET AT LEAST A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN TOWARDS
NEXT WEEKEND AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS. MEANWHILE... THE CURRENT RUN OF
THE ECMWF HAS THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN U.S.
THAT BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW AND SLOWLY MEANDERS EAST. IF THIS
OCCURS... A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIKELY. DESPITE
THESE DIFFERENCES... BOTH MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE RAIN/HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT OF THESE SYSTEMS. HOWEVER... IT IS MAY
SO SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE TO SEE
HOW THINGS DEVELOP NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  80  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         53  81  57  83 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  54  81  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           54  83  57  86 /  10   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     55  82  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         54  80  58  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 011927
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
227 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NICE WEEKEND AHEAD... ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

LIGHT RAIN IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH FAR NW
PORTIONS OF THE FA TONIGHT BUT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE/REMAIN OUT
OF THE AREA SO FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ON SUNDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IN FAR NORTHERN OK BUT OTHERWISE A NICE WEEKEND AHEAD
FOR THE FA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
80S.

MODELS SHOW UPPER SYSTEM COMING ONSHORE OVER CA AND BAJA LATE THIS
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK... BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FA WILL
HAVE A CHANCE MONDAY BUT CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE
FA WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK FOR AT LEAST
PARTS OF THE FA. MODELS DIFFER FROM RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH OTHER
WITH RESPECT TO THE NEXT SYSTEM`S PATH... TIMING... ETC. THE GFS
SHOWS ONCE THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA... SW FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE NEXT WEEK. IF
THIS OCCURS... MAY GET AT LEAST A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN TOWARDS
NEXT WEEKEND AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS. MEANWHILE... THE CURRENT RUN OF
THE ECMWF HAS THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN U.S.
THAT BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW AND SLOWLY MEANDERS EAST. IF THIS
OCCURS... A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIKELY. DESPITE
THESE DIFFERENCES... BOTH MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE RAIN/HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT OF THESE SYSTEMS. HOWEVER... IT IS MAY
SO SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE TO SEE
HOW THINGS DEVELOP NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  80  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         53  81  57  83 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  54  81  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           54  83  57  86 /  10   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     55  82  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         54  80  58  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 011927
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
227 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NICE WEEKEND AHEAD... ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

LIGHT RAIN IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH FAR NW
PORTIONS OF THE FA TONIGHT BUT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE/REMAIN OUT
OF THE AREA SO FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ON SUNDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IN FAR NORTHERN OK BUT OTHERWISE A NICE WEEKEND AHEAD
FOR THE FA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
80S.

MODELS SHOW UPPER SYSTEM COMING ONSHORE OVER CA AND BAJA LATE THIS
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK... BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FA WILL
HAVE A CHANCE MONDAY BUT CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE
FA WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK FOR AT LEAST
PARTS OF THE FA. MODELS DIFFER FROM RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH OTHER
WITH RESPECT TO THE NEXT SYSTEM`S PATH... TIMING... ETC. THE GFS
SHOWS ONCE THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA... SW FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE NEXT WEEK. IF
THIS OCCURS... MAY GET AT LEAST A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN TOWARDS
NEXT WEEKEND AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS. MEANWHILE... THE CURRENT RUN OF
THE ECMWF HAS THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN U.S.
THAT BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW AND SLOWLY MEANDERS EAST. IF THIS
OCCURS... A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIKELY. DESPITE
THESE DIFFERENCES... BOTH MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE RAIN/HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT OF THESE SYSTEMS. HOWEVER... IT IS MAY
SO SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE TO SEE
HOW THINGS DEVELOP NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  80  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         53  81  57  83 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  54  81  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           54  83  57  86 /  10   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     55  82  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         54  80  58  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/25




000
FXUS64 KTSA 011743
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1243 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR...P6SM SKC...THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX NIL. FORECAST UNCHANGED. ENJOY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID
PERIOD AT ALL AREA TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE WILL PREVAIL TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING
EASTWARD W/ GUSTY SOUTH WINDS RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPS REMAINING SEASONABLY MILD.

PRECIP CHANCES ALSO WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SFC
BOUNDARIES REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. SHOULD ANY PRECIP
MANAGE TO SPREAD THIS FAR EASTWARD LOCATIONS NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER
WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE. DATA REMAIN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A
WELL DEFINED WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO ON MONDAY AND LIFTING IT
SHARPLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD
IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE WHICH WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ALONG WITH POSSIBLY LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS. MID
LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA FROM MID TO LATE
WEEK CONTINUING DAILY PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  55  79  59 /   0  10  10  10
FSM   78  51  80  55 /   0  10  10  10
MLC   79  53  79  57 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   79  50  80  57 /   0  10  10  10
FYV   75  44  76  52 /   0  10  10  10
BYV   74  46  77  53 /   0  10  10  10
MKO   78  51  78  56 /   0  10  10  10
MIO   76  51  78  58 /   0  10  10  10
F10   78  53  78  58 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   78  51  78  55 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...21





000
FXUS64 KTSA 011743
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1243 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR...P6SM SKC...THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX NIL. FORECAST UNCHANGED. ENJOY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID
PERIOD AT ALL AREA TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE WILL PREVAIL TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING
EASTWARD W/ GUSTY SOUTH WINDS RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPS REMAINING SEASONABLY MILD.

PRECIP CHANCES ALSO WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SFC
BOUNDARIES REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. SHOULD ANY PRECIP
MANAGE TO SPREAD THIS FAR EASTWARD LOCATIONS NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER
WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE. DATA REMAIN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A
WELL DEFINED WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO ON MONDAY AND LIFTING IT
SHARPLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD
IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE WHICH WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ALONG WITH POSSIBLY LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS. MID
LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA FROM MID TO LATE
WEEK CONTINUING DAILY PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  55  79  59 /   0  10  10  10
FSM   78  51  80  55 /   0  10  10  10
MLC   79  53  79  57 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   79  50  80  57 /   0  10  10  10
FYV   75  44  76  52 /   0  10  10  10
BYV   74  46  77  53 /   0  10  10  10
MKO   78  51  78  56 /   0  10  10  10
MIO   76  51  78  58 /   0  10  10  10
F10   78  53  78  58 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   78  51  78  55 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...21





000
FXUS64 KTSA 011743
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1243 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR...P6SM SKC...THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX NIL. FORECAST UNCHANGED. ENJOY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID
PERIOD AT ALL AREA TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE WILL PREVAIL TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING
EASTWARD W/ GUSTY SOUTH WINDS RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPS REMAINING SEASONABLY MILD.

PRECIP CHANCES ALSO WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SFC
BOUNDARIES REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. SHOULD ANY PRECIP
MANAGE TO SPREAD THIS FAR EASTWARD LOCATIONS NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER
WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE. DATA REMAIN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A
WELL DEFINED WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO ON MONDAY AND LIFTING IT
SHARPLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD
IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE WHICH WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ALONG WITH POSSIBLY LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS. MID
LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA FROM MID TO LATE
WEEK CONTINUING DAILY PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  55  79  59 /   0  10  10  10
FSM   78  51  80  55 /   0  10  10  10
MLC   79  53  79  57 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   79  50  80  57 /   0  10  10  10
FYV   75  44  76  52 /   0  10  10  10
BYV   74  46  77  53 /   0  10  10  10
MKO   78  51  78  56 /   0  10  10  10
MIO   76  51  78  58 /   0  10  10  10
F10   78  53  78  58 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   78  51  78  55 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...21






000
FXUS64 KOUN 011737
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1237 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN UNDER VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS AN UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST WILL
BRING IN HIGH BASED CLOUDINESS/CEILINGS FOR TONIGHT ACROSS SOME
TERMINALS. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
BASIN WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS, BECOMING LIGHT FOR
TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  79  55  80  59 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         80  53  81  57 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  80  54  81  58 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           80  54  83  57 /   0   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     79  55  82  60 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         79  54  80  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/25/67




000
FXUS64 KOUN 011737
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1237 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN UNDER VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS AN UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST WILL
BRING IN HIGH BASED CLOUDINESS/CEILINGS FOR TONIGHT ACROSS SOME
TERMINALS. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
BASIN WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS, BECOMING LIGHT FOR
TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  79  55  80  59 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         80  53  81  57 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  80  54  81  58 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           80  54  83  57 /   0   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     79  55  82  60 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         79  54  80  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/25/67




000
FXUS64 KOUN 011737
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1237 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN UNDER VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS AN UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST WILL
BRING IN HIGH BASED CLOUDINESS/CEILINGS FOR TONIGHT ACROSS SOME
TERMINALS. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
BASIN WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS, BECOMING LIGHT FOR
TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  79  55  80  59 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         80  53  81  57 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  80  54  81  58 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           80  54  83  57 /   0   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     79  55  82  60 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         79  54  80  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/25/67




000
FXUS64 KOUN 011737
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1237 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN UNDER VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS AN UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST WILL
BRING IN HIGH BASED CLOUDINESS/CEILINGS FOR TONIGHT ACROSS SOME
TERMINALS. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
BASIN WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS, BECOMING LIGHT FOR
TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  79  55  80  59 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         80  53  81  57 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  80  54  81  58 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           80  54  83  57 /   0   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     79  55  82  60 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         79  54  80  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/25/67




000
FXUS64 KTSA 011541
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1041 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WX NIL. FORECAST UNCHANGED. ENJOY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID
PERIOD AT ALL AREA TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE WILL PREVAIL TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING
EASTWARD W/ GUSTY SOUTH WINDS RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPS REMAINING SEASONABLY MILD.

PRECIP CHANCES ALSO WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SFC
BOUNDARIES REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. SHOULD ANY PRECIP
MANAGE TO SPREAD THIS FAR EASTWARD LOCATIONS NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER
WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE. DATA REMAIN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A
WELL DEFINED WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO ON MONDAY AND LIFTING IT
SHARPLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD
IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE WHICH WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ALONG WITH POSSIBLY LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS. MID
LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA FROM MID TO LATE
WEEK CONTINUING DAILY PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  55  79  59 /   0  10  10  10
FSM   78  51  80  55 /   0  10  10  10
MLC   79  53  79  57 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   79  50  80  57 /   0  10  10  10
FYV   75  44  76  52 /   0  10  10  10
BYV   74  46  77  53 /   0  10  10  10
MKO   78  51  78  56 /   0  10  10  10
MIO   76  51  78  58 /   0  10  10  10
F10   78  53  78  58 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   78  51  78  55 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....06






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