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000
FXUS64 KTSA 260546
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1146 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
DRY COOL FRONT MOVING THROUGH TAF SITES 11Z-15Z.
APPROXIMATE 11Z KBVO  12Z KTUL KRVS  14Z KMLC  KXNA  KROG
KFYV  15Z KFSM.  MID CLOUD UNTIL COUPLE HOURS AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTY NW WIND AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 902 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

..UPDATE...

SHORT TERM...
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA FORM THE NORTHWEST. BETWEEN
THAT AND THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN WIND DURING THE NIGHT...FEEL THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE VERY REASONABLE. BVO AND FYV DROPPED VERY FAST
AFTER SUNSET...BUT BVO HAS RECOVERED A LITTLE AND CLOUDS ARE NOW
REACHING FYV. THE STANDARD TREND IN NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL NOT HOLD
TONIGHT. TEMPS COULD POTENTIALLY FALL AND RISE FROM ONE HOUR TO
THE NEXT ALL NIGHT.

LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. BY ABOUT 5 AM...THE COLD
FRONT...NOW IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...SHOULD PUSH INTO OSAGE COUNTY AND
EXTEND INTO SOUTHWEST OK. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...AND SHOULD BE WELL INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   36  56  29  51 /   0   0  10   0
FSM   33  56  30  53 /   0  10   0   0
MLC   35  58  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   30  52  26  50 /   0   0  10   0
FYV   30  49  26  49 /   0  20   0  10
BYV   31  48  26  47 /   0  20   0  10
MKO   34  57  29  52 /   0  10   0   0
MIO   34  47  26  48 /   0  10  10  10
F10   36  58  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   35  65  32  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...21





000
FXUS64 KTSA 260546
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1146 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
DRY COOL FRONT MOVING THROUGH TAF SITES 11Z-15Z.
APPROXIMATE 11Z KBVO  12Z KTUL KRVS  14Z KMLC  KXNA  KROG
KFYV  15Z KFSM.  MID CLOUD UNTIL COUPLE HOURS AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTY NW WIND AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 902 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

..UPDATE...

SHORT TERM...
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA FORM THE NORTHWEST. BETWEEN
THAT AND THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN WIND DURING THE NIGHT...FEEL THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE VERY REASONABLE. BVO AND FYV DROPPED VERY FAST
AFTER SUNSET...BUT BVO HAS RECOVERED A LITTLE AND CLOUDS ARE NOW
REACHING FYV. THE STANDARD TREND IN NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL NOT HOLD
TONIGHT. TEMPS COULD POTENTIALLY FALL AND RISE FROM ONE HOUR TO
THE NEXT ALL NIGHT.

LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. BY ABOUT 5 AM...THE COLD
FRONT...NOW IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...SHOULD PUSH INTO OSAGE COUNTY AND
EXTEND INTO SOUTHWEST OK. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...AND SHOULD BE WELL INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   36  56  29  51 /   0   0  10   0
FSM   33  56  30  53 /   0  10   0   0
MLC   35  58  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   30  52  26  50 /   0   0  10   0
FYV   30  49  26  49 /   0  20   0  10
BYV   31  48  26  47 /   0  20   0  10
MKO   34  57  29  52 /   0  10   0   0
MIO   34  47  26  48 /   0  10  10  10
F10   36  58  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   35  65  32  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...21





000
FXUS64 KTSA 260546
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1146 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
DRY COOL FRONT MOVING THROUGH TAF SITES 11Z-15Z.
APPROXIMATE 11Z KBVO  12Z KTUL KRVS  14Z KMLC  KXNA  KROG
KFYV  15Z KFSM.  MID CLOUD UNTIL COUPLE HOURS AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTY NW WIND AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 902 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

..UPDATE...

SHORT TERM...
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA FORM THE NORTHWEST. BETWEEN
THAT AND THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN WIND DURING THE NIGHT...FEEL THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE VERY REASONABLE. BVO AND FYV DROPPED VERY FAST
AFTER SUNSET...BUT BVO HAS RECOVERED A LITTLE AND CLOUDS ARE NOW
REACHING FYV. THE STANDARD TREND IN NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL NOT HOLD
TONIGHT. TEMPS COULD POTENTIALLY FALL AND RISE FROM ONE HOUR TO
THE NEXT ALL NIGHT.

LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. BY ABOUT 5 AM...THE COLD
FRONT...NOW IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...SHOULD PUSH INTO OSAGE COUNTY AND
EXTEND INTO SOUTHWEST OK. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...AND SHOULD BE WELL INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   36  56  29  51 /   0   0  10   0
FSM   33  56  30  53 /   0  10   0   0
MLC   35  58  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   30  52  26  50 /   0   0  10   0
FYV   30  49  26  49 /   0  20   0  10
BYV   31  48  26  47 /   0  20   0  10
MKO   34  57  29  52 /   0  10   0   0
MIO   34  47  26  48 /   0  10  10  10
F10   36  58  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   35  65  32  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...21





000
FXUS64 KTSA 260546
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1146 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
DRY COOL FRONT MOVING THROUGH TAF SITES 11Z-15Z.
APPROXIMATE 11Z KBVO  12Z KTUL KRVS  14Z KMLC  KXNA  KROG
KFYV  15Z KFSM.  MID CLOUD UNTIL COUPLE HOURS AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTY NW WIND AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 902 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

..UPDATE...

SHORT TERM...
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA FORM THE NORTHWEST. BETWEEN
THAT AND THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN WIND DURING THE NIGHT...FEEL THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE VERY REASONABLE. BVO AND FYV DROPPED VERY FAST
AFTER SUNSET...BUT BVO HAS RECOVERED A LITTLE AND CLOUDS ARE NOW
REACHING FYV. THE STANDARD TREND IN NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL NOT HOLD
TONIGHT. TEMPS COULD POTENTIALLY FALL AND RISE FROM ONE HOUR TO
THE NEXT ALL NIGHT.

LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. BY ABOUT 5 AM...THE COLD
FRONT...NOW IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...SHOULD PUSH INTO OSAGE COUNTY AND
EXTEND INTO SOUTHWEST OK. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...AND SHOULD BE WELL INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   36  56  29  51 /   0   0  10   0
FSM   33  56  30  53 /   0  10   0   0
MLC   35  58  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   30  52  26  50 /   0   0  10   0
FYV   30  49  26  49 /   0  20   0  10
BYV   31  48  26  47 /   0  20   0  10
MKO   34  57  29  52 /   0  10   0   0
MIO   34  47  26  48 /   0  10  10  10
F10   36  58  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   35  65  32  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...21




  [top]

000
FXUS64 KOUN 260541
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1141 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...RATHER STRONG SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

HIGH TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. A
BRIEF RAIN SHOWER/SRINKLES IS/ARE POSSIBLE NEAR PNC BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST...AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY MID-MORNING
WEDNESDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLOWLY
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY FRI/SAT...WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION
TONIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
DO LITTLE MORE THAN PROMOTE INCREASED WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS...AND
ACT TO MAINTAIN HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RESUME ON THURSDAY...AND LAST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE SPELL OF WARMER WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...IT LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND NO RAIN IS
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG RANGE MODELS THEN POINT TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY
MID LEVEL FLOW...AND A SLOWLY LIFTING WARM FRONT.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  35  57  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         33  57  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  35  61  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           30  54  27  63 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     35  52  26  52 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         36  60  33  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 260541
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1141 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...RATHER STRONG SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

HIGH TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. A
BRIEF RAIN SHOWER/SRINKLES IS/ARE POSSIBLE NEAR PNC BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST...AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY MID-MORNING
WEDNESDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLOWLY
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY FRI/SAT...WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION
TONIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
DO LITTLE MORE THAN PROMOTE INCREASED WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS...AND
ACT TO MAINTAIN HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RESUME ON THURSDAY...AND LAST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE SPELL OF WARMER WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...IT LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND NO RAIN IS
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG RANGE MODELS THEN POINT TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY
MID LEVEL FLOW...AND A SLOWLY LIFTING WARM FRONT.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  35  57  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         33  57  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  35  61  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           30  54  27  63 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     35  52  26  52 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         36  60  33  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KTSA 260302
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
902 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

...UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA FORM THE NORTHWEST. BETWEEN
THAT AND THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN WIND DURING THE NIGHT...FEEL THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE VERY REASONABLE. BVO AND FYV DROPPED VERY FAST
AFTER SUNSET...BUT BVO HAS RECOVERED A LITTLE AND CLOUDS ARE NOW
REACHING FYV. THE STANDARD TREND IN NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL NOT HOLD
TONIGHT. TEMPS COULD POTENTIALLY FALL AND RISE FROM ONE HOUR TO
THE NEXT ALL NIGHT.

LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. BY ABOUT 5 AM...THE COLD
FRONT...NOW IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...SHOULD PUSH INTO OSAGE COUNTY AND
EXTEND INTO SOUTHWEST OK. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...AND SHOULD BE WELL INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   36  56  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   33  58  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   35  59  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   30  55  26  50 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   30  52  26  49 /   0  10   0   0
BYV   32  51  26  47 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   34  57  29  52 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   34  52  26  48 /   0  10   0   0
F10   36  58  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   35  62  32  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....99






000
FXUS64 KTSA 260009
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
609 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TAF SITES 11Z-16Z TURNING
WIND FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST.  TRANSIENT MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD WITH FRONT. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

STILL LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY QUIET FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...
WITH ELEVATED FIRE DANGER BEING THE MAIN HAZARD STORY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS LARGELY KEEPING ANY MOISTURE WELL SOUTH OF
OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS...WITH DEW POINTS CURRENTLY HOVERING NEAR 20
DEGREES. A RETURN TO WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LATER TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES EAST WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...DESPITE THE VERY LOW DEW POINTS.
WINDS WILL AGAIN QUICKLY SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW AS A DRY
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
WILL EXIST AS WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT...EVEN AS
TEMPERATURES COOL SOME.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT TOWARD THE VERY
END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES PUSHES INTO THE ATLANTIC.
WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR WILL BE ALLOWED BACK INTO THE REGION AS
THIS OCCURS...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY BEGINNING
FRIDAY AND LASTING INTO AT LEAST A PORTION OF SUNDAY. SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT AIDING IN THE
WARM UP. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS OF ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER.

THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH BY LATE SUNDAY...STALLING SOMEWHERE
SOUTH BUT NEAR THE AREA MONDAY. MONDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY
OF THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS
UPPER TROUGHING MOVES ONSHORE TO THE WEST OF THE REGION...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY FOR TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SOME
RETURNING LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL DUE TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   36  56  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   33  58  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   36  59  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   32  55  26  50 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   31  52  26  49 /   0  10   0   0
BYV   32  51  26  47 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   35  57  29  52 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   34  52  26  48 /   0  10   0   0
F10   36  58  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   35  62  32  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...21






000
FXUS64 KTSA 260009
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
609 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TAF SITES 11Z-16Z TURNING
WIND FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST.  TRANSIENT MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD WITH FRONT. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

STILL LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY QUIET FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...
WITH ELEVATED FIRE DANGER BEING THE MAIN HAZARD STORY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS LARGELY KEEPING ANY MOISTURE WELL SOUTH OF
OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS...WITH DEW POINTS CURRENTLY HOVERING NEAR 20
DEGREES. A RETURN TO WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LATER TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES EAST WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...DESPITE THE VERY LOW DEW POINTS.
WINDS WILL AGAIN QUICKLY SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW AS A DRY
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
WILL EXIST AS WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT...EVEN AS
TEMPERATURES COOL SOME.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT TOWARD THE VERY
END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES PUSHES INTO THE ATLANTIC.
WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR WILL BE ALLOWED BACK INTO THE REGION AS
THIS OCCURS...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY BEGINNING
FRIDAY AND LASTING INTO AT LEAST A PORTION OF SUNDAY. SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT AIDING IN THE
WARM UP. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS OF ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER.

THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH BY LATE SUNDAY...STALLING SOMEWHERE
SOUTH BUT NEAR THE AREA MONDAY. MONDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY
OF THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS
UPPER TROUGHING MOVES ONSHORE TO THE WEST OF THE REGION...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY FOR TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SOME
RETURNING LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL DUE TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   36  56  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   33  58  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   36  59  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   32  55  26  50 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   31  52  26  49 /   0  10   0   0
BYV   32  51  26  47 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   35  57  29  52 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   34  52  26  48 /   0  10   0   0
F10   36  58  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   35  62  32  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...21





000
FXUS64 KOUN 252349
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
549 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST...AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY MID-MORNING
WEDNESDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLOWLY
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY FRI/SAT...WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION
TONIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
DO LITTLE MORE THAN PROMOTE INCREASED WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS...AND
ACT TO MAINTAIN HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RESUME ON THURSDAY...AND LAST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE SPELL OF WARMER WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...IT LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND NO RAIN IS
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG RANGE MODELS THEN POINT TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY
MID LEVEL FLOW...AND A SLOWLY LIFTING WARM FRONT.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  36  57  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         34  57  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  36  61  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           31  54  27  63 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     36  52  26  52 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         37  60  33  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 252349
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
549 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST...AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY MID-MORNING
WEDNESDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLOWLY
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY FRI/SAT...WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION
TONIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
DO LITTLE MORE THAN PROMOTE INCREASED WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS...AND
ACT TO MAINTAIN HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RESUME ON THURSDAY...AND LAST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE SPELL OF WARMER WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...IT LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND NO RAIN IS
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG RANGE MODELS THEN POINT TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY
MID LEVEL FLOW...AND A SLOWLY LIFTING WARM FRONT.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  36  57  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         34  57  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  36  61  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           31  54  27  63 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     36  52  26  52 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         37  60  33  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KTSA 252044
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
244 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

STILL LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY QUIET FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...
WITH ELEVATED FIRE DANGER BEING THE MAIN HAZARD STORY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS LARGELY KEEPING ANY MOISTURE WELL SOUTH OF
OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS...WITH DEW POINTS CURRENTLY HOVERING NEAR 20
DEGREES. A RETURN TO WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LATER TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES EAST WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...DESPITE THE VERY LOW DEW POINTS.
WINDS WILL AGAIN QUICKLY SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW AS A DRY
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
WILL EXIST AS WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT...EVEN AS
TEMPERATURES COOL SOME.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT TOWARD THE VERY
END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES PUSHES INTO THE ATLANTIC.
WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR WILL BE ALLOWED BACK INTO THE REGION AS
THIS OCCURS...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY BEGINNING
FRIDAY AND LASTING INTO AT LEAST A PORTION OF SUNDAY. SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT AIDING IN THE
WARM UP. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS OF ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER.

THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH BY LATE SUNDAY...STALLING SOMEWHERE
SOUTH BUT NEAR THE AREA MONDAY. MONDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY
OF THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS
UPPER TROUGHING MOVES ONSHORE TO THE WEST OF THE REGION...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY FOR TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SOME
RETURNING LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL DUE TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   36  56  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   33  58  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   36  59  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   32  55  26  50 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   31  52  26  49 /   0  10   0   0
BYV   32  51  26  47 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   35  57  29  52 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   34  52  26  48 /   0  10   0   0
F10   36  58  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   35  62  32  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 252044
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
244 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

STILL LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY QUIET FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...
WITH ELEVATED FIRE DANGER BEING THE MAIN HAZARD STORY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS LARGELY KEEPING ANY MOISTURE WELL SOUTH OF
OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS...WITH DEW POINTS CURRENTLY HOVERING NEAR 20
DEGREES. A RETURN TO WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LATER TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES EAST WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...DESPITE THE VERY LOW DEW POINTS.
WINDS WILL AGAIN QUICKLY SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW AS A DRY
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
WILL EXIST AS WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT...EVEN AS
TEMPERATURES COOL SOME.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT TOWARD THE VERY
END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES PUSHES INTO THE ATLANTIC.
WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR WILL BE ALLOWED BACK INTO THE REGION AS
THIS OCCURS...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY BEGINNING
FRIDAY AND LASTING INTO AT LEAST A PORTION OF SUNDAY. SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT AIDING IN THE
WARM UP. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS OF ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER.

THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH BY LATE SUNDAY...STALLING SOMEWHERE
SOUTH BUT NEAR THE AREA MONDAY. MONDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY
OF THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS
UPPER TROUGHING MOVES ONSHORE TO THE WEST OF THE REGION...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY FOR TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SOME
RETURNING LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL DUE TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   36  56  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   33  58  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   36  59  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   32  55  26  50 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   31  52  26  49 /   0  10   0   0
BYV   32  51  26  47 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   35  57  29  52 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   34  52  26  48 /   0  10   0   0
F10   36  58  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   35  62  32  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 252044
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
244 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

STILL LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY QUIET FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...
WITH ELEVATED FIRE DANGER BEING THE MAIN HAZARD STORY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS LARGELY KEEPING ANY MOISTURE WELL SOUTH OF
OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS...WITH DEW POINTS CURRENTLY HOVERING NEAR 20
DEGREES. A RETURN TO WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LATER TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES EAST WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...DESPITE THE VERY LOW DEW POINTS.
WINDS WILL AGAIN QUICKLY SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW AS A DRY
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
WILL EXIST AS WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT...EVEN AS
TEMPERATURES COOL SOME.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT TOWARD THE VERY
END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES PUSHES INTO THE ATLANTIC.
WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR WILL BE ALLOWED BACK INTO THE REGION AS
THIS OCCURS...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY BEGINNING
FRIDAY AND LASTING INTO AT LEAST A PORTION OF SUNDAY. SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT AIDING IN THE
WARM UP. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS OF ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER.

THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH BY LATE SUNDAY...STALLING SOMEWHERE
SOUTH BUT NEAR THE AREA MONDAY. MONDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY
OF THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS
UPPER TROUGHING MOVES ONSHORE TO THE WEST OF THE REGION...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY FOR TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SOME
RETURNING LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL DUE TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   36  56  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   33  58  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   36  59  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   32  55  26  50 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   31  52  26  49 /   0  10   0   0
BYV   32  51  26  47 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   35  57  29  52 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   34  52  26  48 /   0  10   0   0
F10   36  58  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   35  62  32  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 252044
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
244 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

STILL LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY QUIET FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...
WITH ELEVATED FIRE DANGER BEING THE MAIN HAZARD STORY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS LARGELY KEEPING ANY MOISTURE WELL SOUTH OF
OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS...WITH DEW POINTS CURRENTLY HOVERING NEAR 20
DEGREES. A RETURN TO WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LATER TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES EAST WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...DESPITE THE VERY LOW DEW POINTS.
WINDS WILL AGAIN QUICKLY SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW AS A DRY
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
WILL EXIST AS WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT...EVEN AS
TEMPERATURES COOL SOME.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT TOWARD THE VERY
END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES PUSHES INTO THE ATLANTIC.
WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR WILL BE ALLOWED BACK INTO THE REGION AS
THIS OCCURS...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY BEGINNING
FRIDAY AND LASTING INTO AT LEAST A PORTION OF SUNDAY. SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT AIDING IN THE
WARM UP. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS OF ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER.

THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH BY LATE SUNDAY...STALLING SOMEWHERE
SOUTH BUT NEAR THE AREA MONDAY. MONDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY
OF THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS
UPPER TROUGHING MOVES ONSHORE TO THE WEST OF THE REGION...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY FOR TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SOME
RETURNING LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL DUE TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   36  56  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   33  58  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   36  59  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   32  55  26  50 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   31  52  26  49 /   0  10   0   0
BYV   32  51  26  47 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   35  57  29  52 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   34  52  26  48 /   0  10   0   0
F10   36  58  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   35  62  32  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KOUN 252023
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
223 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLOWLY
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY FRI/SAT...WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION
TONIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
DO LITTLE MORE THAN PROMOTE INCREASED WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS...AND
ACT TO MAINTAIN HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RESUME ON THURSDAY...AND LAST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE SPELL OF WARMER WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...IT LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND NO RAIN IS
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG RANGE MODELS THEN POINT TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY
MID LEVEL FLOW...AND A SLOWLY LIFTING WARM FRONT.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  36  57  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         34  57  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  36  61  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           31  54  27  63 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     36  52  26  52 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         37  60  33  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 252023
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
223 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLOWLY
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY FRI/SAT...WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION
TONIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
DO LITTLE MORE THAN PROMOTE INCREASED WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS...AND
ACT TO MAINTAIN HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RESUME ON THURSDAY...AND LAST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE SPELL OF WARMER WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...IT LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND NO RAIN IS
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG RANGE MODELS THEN POINT TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY
MID LEVEL FLOW...AND A SLOWLY LIFTING WARM FRONT.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  36  57  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         34  57  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  36  61  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           31  54  27  63 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     36  52  26  52 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         37  60  33  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84



000
FXUS64 KOUN 251736
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1136 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. A
WEAK FRONT WILL THEN RESULT IN A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT FROM 06Z
THROUGH 12Z WED.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND SOME CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE... NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES
WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. MOISTURE
WILL ALSO SPREAD BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS A
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH
THE INCREASING MOISTURE... SOME SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN SE
PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AFTER THAT... THE GFS
AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
TOWARDS MIDDLE OR POSSIBLY LATE NEXT WEEK. WHENEVER THIS SYSTEM DOES
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION... IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE FA BUT WILL
HAVE TO SEE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  36  57  31 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         54  33  58  31 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  36  61  33 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           54  31  55  27 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     52  36  53  26 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         57  37  61  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 251736
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1136 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. A
WEAK FRONT WILL THEN RESULT IN A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT FROM 06Z
THROUGH 12Z WED.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND SOME CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE... NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES
WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. MOISTURE
WILL ALSO SPREAD BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS A
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH
THE INCREASING MOISTURE... SOME SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN SE
PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AFTER THAT... THE GFS
AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
TOWARDS MIDDLE OR POSSIBLY LATE NEXT WEEK. WHENEVER THIS SYSTEM DOES
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION... IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE FA BUT WILL
HAVE TO SEE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  36  57  31 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         54  33  58  31 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  36  61  33 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           54  31  55  27 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     52  36  53  26 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         57  37  61  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 251736
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1136 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. A
WEAK FRONT WILL THEN RESULT IN A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT FROM 06Z
THROUGH 12Z WED.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND SOME CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE... NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES
WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. MOISTURE
WILL ALSO SPREAD BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS A
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH
THE INCREASING MOISTURE... SOME SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN SE
PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AFTER THAT... THE GFS
AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
TOWARDS MIDDLE OR POSSIBLY LATE NEXT WEEK. WHENEVER THIS SYSTEM DOES
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION... IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE FA BUT WILL
HAVE TO SEE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  36  57  31 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         54  33  58  31 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  36  61  33 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           54  31  55  27 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     52  36  53  26 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         57  37  61  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 251736
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1136 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. A
WEAK FRONT WILL THEN RESULT IN A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT FROM 06Z
THROUGH 12Z WED.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND SOME CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE... NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES
WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. MOISTURE
WILL ALSO SPREAD BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS A
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH
THE INCREASING MOISTURE... SOME SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN SE
PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AFTER THAT... THE GFS
AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
TOWARDS MIDDLE OR POSSIBLY LATE NEXT WEEK. WHENEVER THIS SYSTEM DOES
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION... IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE FA BUT WILL
HAVE TO SEE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  36  57  31 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         54  33  58  31 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  36  61  33 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           54  31  55  27 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     52  36  53  26 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         57  37  61  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84




000
FXUS64 KTSA 251726
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1126 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SOME
PERIODS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS. DRY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TAF SITES WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
PATCH OF AC ACROSS ERN OK HAS BEEN THINNING OVER
THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...AND HAVE TWEAKED SKY GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. OVERALL AFTERNOON FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATE PLANNED FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  35  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   52  33  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   54  36  59  29 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   50  32  56  24 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   47  31  53  24 /   0   0  10   0
BYV   46  31  52  25 /   0   0  10   0
MKO   51  34  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   47  33  53  25 /   0   0  10   0
F10   52  35  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   56  34  62  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 251652
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1052 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
PATCH OF AC ACROSS ERN OK HAS BEEN THINNING OVER
THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...AND HAVE TWEAKED SKY GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. OVERALL AFTERNOON FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATE PLANNED FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  35  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   52  33  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   54  36  59  29 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   50  32  56  24 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   47  31  53  24 /   0   0  10   0
BYV   46  31  52  25 /   0   0  10   0
MKO   51  34  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   47  33  53  25 /   0   0  10   0
F10   52  35  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   56  34  62  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 251652
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1052 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
PATCH OF AC ACROSS ERN OK HAS BEEN THINNING OVER
THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...AND HAVE TWEAKED SKY GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. OVERALL AFTERNOON FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATE PLANNED FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  35  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   52  33  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   54  36  59  29 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   50  32  56  24 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   47  31  53  24 /   0   0  10   0
BYV   46  31  52  25 /   0   0  10   0
MKO   51  34  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   47  33  53  25 /   0   0  10   0
F10   52  35  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   56  34  62  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 251652
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1052 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
PATCH OF AC ACROSS ERN OK HAS BEEN THINNING OVER
THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...AND HAVE TWEAKED SKY GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. OVERALL AFTERNOON FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATE PLANNED FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  35  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   52  33  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   54  36  59  29 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   50  32  56  24 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   47  31  53  24 /   0   0  10   0
BYV   46  31  52  25 /   0   0  10   0
MKO   51  34  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   47  33  53  25 /   0   0  10   0
F10   52  35  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   56  34  62  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 251652
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1052 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
PATCH OF AC ACROSS ERN OK HAS BEEN THINNING OVER
THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...AND HAVE TWEAKED SKY GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. OVERALL AFTERNOON FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATE PLANNED FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  35  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   52  33  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   54  36  59  29 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   50  32  56  24 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   47  31  53  24 /   0   0  10   0
BYV   46  31  52  25 /   0   0  10   0
MKO   51  34  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   47  33  53  25 /   0   0  10   0
F10   52  35  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   56  34  62  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 251652
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1052 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
PATCH OF AC ACROSS ERN OK HAS BEEN THINNING OVER
THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...AND HAVE TWEAKED SKY GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. OVERALL AFTERNOON FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATE PLANNED FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  35  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   52  33  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   54  36  59  29 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   50  32  56  24 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   47  31  53  24 /   0   0  10   0
BYV   46  31  52  25 /   0   0  10   0
MKO   51  34  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   47  33  53  25 /   0   0  10   0
F10   52  35  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   56  34  62  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 251652
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1052 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
PATCH OF AC ACROSS ERN OK HAS BEEN THINNING OVER
THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...AND HAVE TWEAKED SKY GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. OVERALL AFTERNOON FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATE PLANNED FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  35  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   52  33  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   54  36  59  29 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   50  32  56  24 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   47  31  53  24 /   0   0  10   0
BYV   46  31  52  25 /   0   0  10   0
MKO   51  34  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   47  33  53  25 /   0   0  10   0
F10   52  35  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   56  34  62  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....22





000
FXUS64 KOUN 251110
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
510 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH
SOME CLOUDS AND SHIFTING WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND SOME CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE... NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES
WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. MOISTURE
WILL ALSO SPREAD BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS A
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH
THE INCREASING MOISTURE... SOME SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN SE
PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AFTER THAT... THE GFS
AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
TOWARDS MIDDLE OR POSSIBLY LATE NEXT WEEK. WHENEVER THIS SYSTEM DOES
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION... IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE FA BUT WILL
HAVE TO SEE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  36  57  31 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         54  33  58  31 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  36  61  33 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           54  31  55  27 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     52  36  53  26 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         57  37  61  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 251110
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
510 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH
SOME CLOUDS AND SHIFTING WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND SOME CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE... NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES
WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. MOISTURE
WILL ALSO SPREAD BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS A
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH
THE INCREASING MOISTURE... SOME SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN SE
PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AFTER THAT... THE GFS
AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
TOWARDS MIDDLE OR POSSIBLY LATE NEXT WEEK. WHENEVER THIS SYSTEM DOES
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION... IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE FA BUT WILL
HAVE TO SEE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  36  57  31 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         54  33  58  31 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  36  61  33 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           54  31  55  27 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     52  36  53  26 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         57  37  61  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25/25




000
FXUS64 KTSA 251104
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
504 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT AND SOME
CLOUDINESS MARKING ITS PASSAGE. A BIG WARMUP WILL TAKE PLACE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BEFORE IT
RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER FOR OUR AREA LOOKS TO ARRIVE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTIFUL BY THAT TIME.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KTSA 251104
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
504 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT AND SOME
CLOUDINESS MARKING ITS PASSAGE. A BIG WARMUP WILL TAKE PLACE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BEFORE IT
RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER FOR OUR AREA LOOKS TO ARRIVE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTIFUL BY THAT TIME.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KTSA 251104
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
504 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT AND SOME
CLOUDINESS MARKING ITS PASSAGE. A BIG WARMUP WILL TAKE PLACE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BEFORE IT
RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER FOR OUR AREA LOOKS TO ARRIVE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTIFUL BY THAT TIME.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23






000
FXUS64 KTSA 251104
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
504 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT AND SOME
CLOUDINESS MARKING ITS PASSAGE. A BIG WARMUP WILL TAKE PLACE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BEFORE IT
RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER FOR OUR AREA LOOKS TO ARRIVE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTIFUL BY THAT TIME.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23






000
FXUS64 KTSA 250957
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
357 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT AND SOME
CLOUDINESS MARKING ITS PASSAGE. A BIG WARMUP WILL TAKE PLACE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BEFORE IT
RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER FOR OUR AREA LOOKS TO ARRIVE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTIFUL BY THAT TIME.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  35  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   52  33  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   54  36  59  29 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   50  32  56  24 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   47  31  53  24 /   0   0  10   0
BYV   46  31  52  25 /   0   0  10   0
MKO   51  34  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   47  33  53  25 /   0   0  10   0
F10   52  35  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   56  34  62  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....05

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KTSA 250957
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
357 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT AND SOME
CLOUDINESS MARKING ITS PASSAGE. A BIG WARMUP WILL TAKE PLACE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BEFORE IT
RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER FOR OUR AREA LOOKS TO ARRIVE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTIFUL BY THAT TIME.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  35  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   52  33  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   54  36  59  29 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   50  32  56  24 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   47  31  53  24 /   0   0  10   0
BYV   46  31  52  25 /   0   0  10   0
MKO   51  34  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   47  33  53  25 /   0   0  10   0
F10   52  35  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   56  34  62  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....05

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KTSA 250957
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
357 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT AND SOME
CLOUDINESS MARKING ITS PASSAGE. A BIG WARMUP WILL TAKE PLACE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BEFORE IT
RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER FOR OUR AREA LOOKS TO ARRIVE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTIFUL BY THAT TIME.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  35  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   52  33  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   54  36  59  29 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   50  32  56  24 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   47  31  53  24 /   0   0  10   0
BYV   46  31  52  25 /   0   0  10   0
MKO   51  34  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   47  33  53  25 /   0   0  10   0
F10   52  35  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   56  34  62  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....05

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KTSA 250957
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
357 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT AND SOME
CLOUDINESS MARKING ITS PASSAGE. A BIG WARMUP WILL TAKE PLACE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BEFORE IT
RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER FOR OUR AREA LOOKS TO ARRIVE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTIFUL BY THAT TIME.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  35  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   52  33  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   54  36  59  29 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   50  32  56  24 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   47  31  53  24 /   0   0  10   0
BYV   46  31  52  25 /   0   0  10   0
MKO   51  34  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   47  33  53  25 /   0   0  10   0
F10   52  35  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   56  34  62  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....05

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KOUN 250939
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
339 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND SOME CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE... NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES
WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. MOISTURE
WILL ALSO SPREAD BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS A
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH
THE INCREASING MOISTURE... SOME SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN SE
PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AFTER THAT... THE GFS
AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
TOWARDS MIDDLE OR POSSIBLY LATE NEXT WEEK. WHENEVER THIS SYSTEM DOES
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION... IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE FA BUT WILL
HAVE TO SEE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  36  57  31 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         54  33  58  31 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  36  61  33 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           54  31  55  27 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     52  36  53  26 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         57  37  61  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 250939
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
339 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND SOME CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE... NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES
WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. MOISTURE
WILL ALSO SPREAD BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS A
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH
THE INCREASING MOISTURE... SOME SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN SE
PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AFTER THAT... THE GFS
AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
TOWARDS MIDDLE OR POSSIBLY LATE NEXT WEEK. WHENEVER THIS SYSTEM DOES
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION... IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE FA BUT WILL
HAVE TO SEE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  36  57  31 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         54  33  58  31 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  36  61  33 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           54  31  55  27 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     52  36  53  26 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         57  37  61  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 250548
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1148 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.  SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH CLEARING BY EARLY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
MAINLY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL SOUTH WINDS RETURN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS PRETTY BENIGN OVER THE NEXT
WEEK. A COUPLE OF WEAK DRY FRONTAL PASSAGES SHOULD PROMOTE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT BY
THANKSGIVING DAY AND ESPECIALLY THE COMING WEEKEND...WE CAN EXPECT
DAYTIME HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S WITHIN SOUTHERLY
SFC FLOW.

WHILE OUR AREA LOOKS TO TAP INTO SOME GORGEOUS WEATHER OVER THE
THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...OTHER PARTS OF THE COUNTRY MAY NOT BE SO
LUCKY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BOTH TIME AND SPACE
REGARDING A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. WHILE THIS WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON OKLAHOMA OR
TEXAS...THOSE WHO MAY BE TRAVELING TO OR FROM THE NORTHEAST FROM
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND SHOULD EXPECT TRAVEL
DELAYS...AND POSSIBLY CANCELLATIONS. OTHERWISE...TO THOSE
REMAINING HERE IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...ENJOY THE NICE
WEATHER.

THE WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO OKLAHOMA AND
POSSIBLY NORTH TEXAS BY MONDAY MORNING. THE AIRMASS DOES NOT LOOK
TERRIBLY COLD WITH THIS FRONT...BUT IT WILL CERTAINLY BE A
NOTICEABLE CHILL FROM THE WARMTH OF THE COMING WEEKEND. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS LOOK TO BRING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
INTO THE REGION...POSSIBLY BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  55  35  59 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         30  54  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  33  57  35  62 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           23  54  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     25  51  33  55 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         35  57  37  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 250548
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1148 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.  SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH CLEARING BY EARLY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
MAINLY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL SOUTH WINDS RETURN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS PRETTY BENIGN OVER THE NEXT
WEEK. A COUPLE OF WEAK DRY FRONTAL PASSAGES SHOULD PROMOTE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT BY
THANKSGIVING DAY AND ESPECIALLY THE COMING WEEKEND...WE CAN EXPECT
DAYTIME HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S WITHIN SOUTHERLY
SFC FLOW.

WHILE OUR AREA LOOKS TO TAP INTO SOME GORGEOUS WEATHER OVER THE
THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...OTHER PARTS OF THE COUNTRY MAY NOT BE SO
LUCKY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BOTH TIME AND SPACE
REGARDING A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. WHILE THIS WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON OKLAHOMA OR
TEXAS...THOSE WHO MAY BE TRAVELING TO OR FROM THE NORTHEAST FROM
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND SHOULD EXPECT TRAVEL
DELAYS...AND POSSIBLY CANCELLATIONS. OTHERWISE...TO THOSE
REMAINING HERE IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...ENJOY THE NICE
WEATHER.

THE WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO OKLAHOMA AND
POSSIBLY NORTH TEXAS BY MONDAY MORNING. THE AIRMASS DOES NOT LOOK
TERRIBLY COLD WITH THIS FRONT...BUT IT WILL CERTAINLY BE A
NOTICEABLE CHILL FROM THE WARMTH OF THE COMING WEEKEND. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS LOOK TO BRING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
INTO THE REGION...POSSIBLY BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  55  35  59 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         30  54  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  33  57  35  62 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           23  54  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     25  51  33  55 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         35  57  37  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 250548
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1148 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.  SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH CLEARING BY EARLY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
MAINLY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL SOUTH WINDS RETURN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS PRETTY BENIGN OVER THE NEXT
WEEK. A COUPLE OF WEAK DRY FRONTAL PASSAGES SHOULD PROMOTE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT BY
THANKSGIVING DAY AND ESPECIALLY THE COMING WEEKEND...WE CAN EXPECT
DAYTIME HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S WITHIN SOUTHERLY
SFC FLOW.

WHILE OUR AREA LOOKS TO TAP INTO SOME GORGEOUS WEATHER OVER THE
THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...OTHER PARTS OF THE COUNTRY MAY NOT BE SO
LUCKY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BOTH TIME AND SPACE
REGARDING A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. WHILE THIS WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON OKLAHOMA OR
TEXAS...THOSE WHO MAY BE TRAVELING TO OR FROM THE NORTHEAST FROM
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND SHOULD EXPECT TRAVEL
DELAYS...AND POSSIBLY CANCELLATIONS. OTHERWISE...TO THOSE
REMAINING HERE IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...ENJOY THE NICE
WEATHER.

THE WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO OKLAHOMA AND
POSSIBLY NORTH TEXAS BY MONDAY MORNING. THE AIRMASS DOES NOT LOOK
TERRIBLY COLD WITH THIS FRONT...BUT IT WILL CERTAINLY BE A
NOTICEABLE CHILL FROM THE WARMTH OF THE COMING WEEKEND. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS LOOK TO BRING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
INTO THE REGION...POSSIBLY BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  55  35  59 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         30  54  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  33  57  35  62 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           23  54  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     25  51  33  55 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         35  57  37  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 250548
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1148 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.  SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH CLEARING BY EARLY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
MAINLY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL SOUTH WINDS RETURN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS PRETTY BENIGN OVER THE NEXT
WEEK. A COUPLE OF WEAK DRY FRONTAL PASSAGES SHOULD PROMOTE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT BY
THANKSGIVING DAY AND ESPECIALLY THE COMING WEEKEND...WE CAN EXPECT
DAYTIME HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S WITHIN SOUTHERLY
SFC FLOW.

WHILE OUR AREA LOOKS TO TAP INTO SOME GORGEOUS WEATHER OVER THE
THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...OTHER PARTS OF THE COUNTRY MAY NOT BE SO
LUCKY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BOTH TIME AND SPACE
REGARDING A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. WHILE THIS WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON OKLAHOMA OR
TEXAS...THOSE WHO MAY BE TRAVELING TO OR FROM THE NORTHEAST FROM
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND SHOULD EXPECT TRAVEL
DELAYS...AND POSSIBLY CANCELLATIONS. OTHERWISE...TO THOSE
REMAINING HERE IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...ENJOY THE NICE
WEATHER.

THE WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO OKLAHOMA AND
POSSIBLY NORTH TEXAS BY MONDAY MORNING. THE AIRMASS DOES NOT LOOK
TERRIBLY COLD WITH THIS FRONT...BUT IT WILL CERTAINLY BE A
NOTICEABLE CHILL FROM THE WARMTH OF THE COMING WEEKEND. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS LOOK TO BRING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
INTO THE REGION...POSSIBLY BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  55  35  59 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         30  54  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  33  57  35  62 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           23  54  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     25  51  33  55 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         35  57  37  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 250314
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
914 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE SENT TO LOWER TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES IN SOME AREAS
OVERNIGHT GIVEN LATEST TRENDS.  OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 250314
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
914 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE SENT TO LOWER TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES IN SOME AREAS
OVERNIGHT GIVEN LATEST TRENDS.  OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12





000
FXUS64 KOUN 242333
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
533 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH CLEARING BY EARLY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
MAINLY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL SOUTH WINDS RETURN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS PRETTY BENIGN OVER THE NEXT
WEEK. A COUPLE OF WEAK DRY FRONTAL PASSAGES SHOULD PROMOTE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT BY
THANKSGIVING DAY AND ESPECIALLY THE COMING WEEKEND...WE CAN EXPECT
DAYTIME HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S WITHIN SOUTHERLY
SFC FLOW.

WHILE OUR AREA LOOKS TO TAP INTO SOME GORGEOUS WEATHER OVER THE
THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...OTHER PARTS OF THE COUNTRY MAY NOT BE SO
LUCKY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BOTH TIME AND SPACE
REGARDING A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. WHILE THIS WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON OKLAHOMA OR
TEXAS...THOSE WHO MAY BE TRAVELING TO OR FROM THE NORTHEAST FROM
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND SHOULD EXPECT TRAVEL
DELAYS...AND POSSIBLY CANCELLATIONS. OTHERWISE...TO THOSE
REMAINING HERE IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...ENJOY THE NICE
WEATHER.

THE WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO OKLAHOMA AND
POSSIBLY NORTH TEXAS BY MONDAY MORNING. THE AIRMASS DOES NOT LOOK
TERRIBLY COLD WITH THIS FRONT...BUT IT WILL CERTAINLY BE A
NOTICEABLE CHILL FROM THE WARMTH OF THE COMING WEEKEND. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS LOOK TO BRING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
INTO THE REGION...POSSIBLY BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  31  55  35  59 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         31  54  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  34  57  35  62 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           24  54  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     26  51  33  55 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         36  57  37  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KTSA 242046
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
246 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PERIOD COMING UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. NORTH TO NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP MOISTURE
LOCKED DOWN SOUTH OF THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR A DRY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK
SHOULD BE NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL. ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PRESENT ANYTIME THE WIND PICKS UP DUE TO THE
PERSISTENTLY LOW DEW POINTS...WITH WEDNESDAY BEING THE MOST LIKELY
DAY FOR THIS BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS THE
EAST COAST TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC. AS THIS OCCURS AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN...UNSEASONABLY WARM LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE
INTO OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
LIKELY FOR SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS SUNDAY AS WELL. SUNDAY
TEMPERATURES HINGE ON HOW QUICKLY THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WITH A PASSAGE DURING THE DAY OR INTO SUNDAY EVENING
PROBABLE. AT THE VERY LEAST...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALSO BRING MORE MOISTURE BACK TO THE
REGION AND AT LEAST SOME SMALL POTENTIAL FOR RAIN. THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE AFTER THE VALID PERIOD FOR THIS FORECAST
AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   28  52  36  56 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   32  53  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   31  55  35  59 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   24  52  32  55 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   25  48  30  52 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   26  47  32  51 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   29  52  34  57 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   25  49  33  52 /   0   0   0   0
F10   30  53  35  58 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   33  58  35  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 242046
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
246 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PERIOD COMING UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. NORTH TO NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP MOISTURE
LOCKED DOWN SOUTH OF THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR A DRY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK
SHOULD BE NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL. ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PRESENT ANYTIME THE WIND PICKS UP DUE TO THE
PERSISTENTLY LOW DEW POINTS...WITH WEDNESDAY BEING THE MOST LIKELY
DAY FOR THIS BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS THE
EAST COAST TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC. AS THIS OCCURS AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN...UNSEASONABLY WARM LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE
INTO OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
LIKELY FOR SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS SUNDAY AS WELL. SUNDAY
TEMPERATURES HINGE ON HOW QUICKLY THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WITH A PASSAGE DURING THE DAY OR INTO SUNDAY EVENING
PROBABLE. AT THE VERY LEAST...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALSO BRING MORE MOISTURE BACK TO THE
REGION AND AT LEAST SOME SMALL POTENTIAL FOR RAIN. THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE AFTER THE VALID PERIOD FOR THIS FORECAST
AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   28  52  36  56 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   32  53  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   31  55  35  59 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   24  52  32  55 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   25  48  30  52 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   26  47  32  51 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   29  52  34  57 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   25  49  33  52 /   0   0   0   0
F10   30  53  35  58 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   33  58  35  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....22





000
FXUS64 KOUN 242024
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
224 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS PRETTY BENIGN OVER THE NEXT
WEEK. A COUPLE OF WEAK DRY FRONTAL PASSAGES SHOULD PROMOTE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT BY
THANKSGIVING DAY AND ESPECIALLY THE COMING WEEKEND...WE CAN EXPECT
DAYTIME HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S WITHIN SOUTHERLY
SFC FLOW.

WHILE OUR AREA LOOKS TO TAP INTO SOME GORGEOUS WEATHER OVER THE
THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...OTHER PARTS OF THE COUNTRY MAY NOT BE SO
LUCKY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BOTH TIME AND SPACE
REGARDING A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. WHILE THIS WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON OKLAHOMA OR
TEXAS...THOSE WHO MAY BE TRAVELING TO OR FROM THE NORTHEAST FROM
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND SHOULD EXPECT TRAVEL
DELAYS...AND POSSIBLY CANCELLATIONS. OTHERWISE...TO THOSE
REMAINING HERE IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...ENJOY THE NICE
WEATHER.

THE WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO OKLAHOMA AND
POSSIBLY NORTH TEXAS BY MONDAY MORNING. THE AIRMASS DOES NOT LOOK
TERRIBLY COLD WITH THIS FRONT...BUT IT WILL CERTAINLY BE A
NOTICEABLE CHILL FROM THE WARMTH OF THE COMING WEEKEND. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS LOOK TO BRING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
INTO THE REGION...POSSIBLY BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  31  55  35  59 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         31  54  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  34  57  35  62 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           24  54  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     26  51  33  55 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         36  57  37  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84



000
FXUS64 KOUN 242024
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
224 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS PRETTY BENIGN OVER THE NEXT
WEEK. A COUPLE OF WEAK DRY FRONTAL PASSAGES SHOULD PROMOTE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT BY
THANKSGIVING DAY AND ESPECIALLY THE COMING WEEKEND...WE CAN EXPECT
DAYTIME HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S WITHIN SOUTHERLY
SFC FLOW.

WHILE OUR AREA LOOKS TO TAP INTO SOME GORGEOUS WEATHER OVER THE
THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...OTHER PARTS OF THE COUNTRY MAY NOT BE SO
LUCKY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BOTH TIME AND SPACE
REGARDING A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. WHILE THIS WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON OKLAHOMA OR
TEXAS...THOSE WHO MAY BE TRAVELING TO OR FROM THE NORTHEAST FROM
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND SHOULD EXPECT TRAVEL
DELAYS...AND POSSIBLY CANCELLATIONS. OTHERWISE...TO THOSE
REMAINING HERE IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...ENJOY THE NICE
WEATHER.

THE WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO OKLAHOMA AND
POSSIBLY NORTH TEXAS BY MONDAY MORNING. THE AIRMASS DOES NOT LOOK
TERRIBLY COLD WITH THIS FRONT...BUT IT WILL CERTAINLY BE A
NOTICEABLE CHILL FROM THE WARMTH OF THE COMING WEEKEND. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS LOOK TO BRING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
INTO THE REGION...POSSIBLY BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  31  55  35  59 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         31  54  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  34  57  35  62 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           24  54  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     26  51  33  55 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         36  57  37  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 241736
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1136 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BREEZY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 00Z...BECOMING
LIGHT OVERNIGHT. A WEAK WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
FROM 06Z THROUGH 10Z...RESULTING IN SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN WIND
DIRECTION...THOUGH SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

AVIATION...
24/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. W/NW WINDS WILL INCREASE
WITH MIXING THIS MORNING MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER 23Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WITH MIXING TODAY...WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FOR SEVERAL
HOURS BUT SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ALTHOUGH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH PROBABLE. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER AREAS
NEAR AND NORTH OF OKC. A DRY AND MILD WEEK IN STORE FOR THE
REGION...AND GIVEN LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL TRENDS...LATE WEEK
AND EARLY WEEKEND TIME PERIOD COULD BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE
NOVEMBER. FORECAST TEMPS WILL BE INCREASED ABOVE BLENDED MODEL
INITIALIZATIONS. MODELS SLOWING FRONTAL INTRUSION WITH
ESTABLISHMENT OF MORE PRONOUNCED ZONAL FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. DEVELOPMENT OF WESTERN TROUGH LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK SIMILAR IN MODELS AS WELL...YIELDING MILD
CONDITIONS AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES BEYOND THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  30  54  34 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         59  28  55  32 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  32  57  34 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           55  23  54  28 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     55  26  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         60  35  57  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 241736
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1136 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BREEZY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 00Z...BECOMING
LIGHT OVERNIGHT. A WEAK WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
FROM 06Z THROUGH 10Z...RESULTING IN SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN WIND
DIRECTION...THOUGH SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

AVIATION...
24/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. W/NW WINDS WILL INCREASE
WITH MIXING THIS MORNING MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER 23Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WITH MIXING TODAY...WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FOR SEVERAL
HOURS BUT SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ALTHOUGH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH PROBABLE. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER AREAS
NEAR AND NORTH OF OKC. A DRY AND MILD WEEK IN STORE FOR THE
REGION...AND GIVEN LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL TRENDS...LATE WEEK
AND EARLY WEEKEND TIME PERIOD COULD BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE
NOVEMBER. FORECAST TEMPS WILL BE INCREASED ABOVE BLENDED MODEL
INITIALIZATIONS. MODELS SLOWING FRONTAL INTRUSION WITH
ESTABLISHMENT OF MORE PRONOUNCED ZONAL FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. DEVELOPMENT OF WESTERN TROUGH LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK SIMILAR IN MODELS AS WELL...YIELDING MILD
CONDITIONS AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES BEYOND THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  30  54  34 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         59  28  55  32 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  32  57  34 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           55  23  54  28 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     55  26  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         60  35  57  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 241736
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1136 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BREEZY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 00Z...BECOMING
LIGHT OVERNIGHT. A WEAK WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
FROM 06Z THROUGH 10Z...RESULTING IN SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN WIND
DIRECTION...THOUGH SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

AVIATION...
24/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. W/NW WINDS WILL INCREASE
WITH MIXING THIS MORNING MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER 23Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WITH MIXING TODAY...WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FOR SEVERAL
HOURS BUT SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ALTHOUGH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH PROBABLE. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER AREAS
NEAR AND NORTH OF OKC. A DRY AND MILD WEEK IN STORE FOR THE
REGION...AND GIVEN LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL TRENDS...LATE WEEK
AND EARLY WEEKEND TIME PERIOD COULD BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE
NOVEMBER. FORECAST TEMPS WILL BE INCREASED ABOVE BLENDED MODEL
INITIALIZATIONS. MODELS SLOWING FRONTAL INTRUSION WITH
ESTABLISHMENT OF MORE PRONOUNCED ZONAL FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. DEVELOPMENT OF WESTERN TROUGH LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK SIMILAR IN MODELS AS WELL...YIELDING MILD
CONDITIONS AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES BEYOND THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  30  54  34 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         59  28  55  32 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  32  57  34 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           55  23  54  28 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     55  26  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         60  35  57  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 241736
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1136 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BREEZY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 00Z...BECOMING
LIGHT OVERNIGHT. A WEAK WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
FROM 06Z THROUGH 10Z...RESULTING IN SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN WIND
DIRECTION...THOUGH SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

AVIATION...
24/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. W/NW WINDS WILL INCREASE
WITH MIXING THIS MORNING MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER 23Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WITH MIXING TODAY...WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FOR SEVERAL
HOURS BUT SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ALTHOUGH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH PROBABLE. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER AREAS
NEAR AND NORTH OF OKC. A DRY AND MILD WEEK IN STORE FOR THE
REGION...AND GIVEN LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL TRENDS...LATE WEEK
AND EARLY WEEKEND TIME PERIOD COULD BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE
NOVEMBER. FORECAST TEMPS WILL BE INCREASED ABOVE BLENDED MODEL
INITIALIZATIONS. MODELS SLOWING FRONTAL INTRUSION WITH
ESTABLISHMENT OF MORE PRONOUNCED ZONAL FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. DEVELOPMENT OF WESTERN TROUGH LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK SIMILAR IN MODELS AS WELL...YIELDING MILD
CONDITIONS AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES BEYOND THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  30  54  34 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         59  28  55  32 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  32  57  34 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           55  23  54  28 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     55  26  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         60  35  57  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84




000
FXUS64 KTSA 241732
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1132 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN COMMON
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
OVERNIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST.
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WESTERLY WINDS WERE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE CWA...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION
YESTERDAY WAS LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. WITH THE CWA BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE SHOULD KEEP WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
BREEZY IN THE 10 TO 25 MPH RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...THUS ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

COOLER/DRIER AIR COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF THE YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP TO KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPS CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGE. THOUGH...
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS WITH THE BREEZY
WINDS WILL CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA...A LIMITED FIRE DANGER WILL
BE POSSIBLE. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO TWEAK TEMP AND WIND GRIDS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS AND THE MENTIONED
ABOVE...OTHERWISE THE CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  28  52  35 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   58  31  53  33 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   60  30  55  35 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   56  24  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   52  24  48  29 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   51  25  47  31 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   58  28  52  34 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   53  25  48  33 /   0   0   0   0
F10   59  29  53  34 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   62  32  58  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20






000
FXUS64 KTSA 241732
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1132 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN COMMON
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
OVERNIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST.
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WESTERLY WINDS WERE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE CWA...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION
YESTERDAY WAS LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. WITH THE CWA BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE SHOULD KEEP WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
BREEZY IN THE 10 TO 25 MPH RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...THUS ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

COOLER/DRIER AIR COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF THE YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP TO KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPS CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGE. THOUGH...
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS WITH THE BREEZY
WINDS WILL CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA...A LIMITED FIRE DANGER WILL
BE POSSIBLE. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO TWEAK TEMP AND WIND GRIDS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS AND THE MENTIONED
ABOVE...OTHERWISE THE CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  28  52  35 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   58  31  53  33 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   60  30  55  35 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   56  24  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   52  24  48  29 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   51  25  47  31 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   58  28  52  34 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   53  25  48  33 /   0   0   0   0
F10   59  29  53  34 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   62  32  58  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20






000
FXUS64 KTSA 241732
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1132 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN COMMON
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
OVERNIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST.
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WESTERLY WINDS WERE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE CWA...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION
YESTERDAY WAS LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. WITH THE CWA BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE SHOULD KEEP WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
BREEZY IN THE 10 TO 25 MPH RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...THUS ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

COOLER/DRIER AIR COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF THE YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP TO KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPS CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGE. THOUGH...
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS WITH THE BREEZY
WINDS WILL CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA...A LIMITED FIRE DANGER WILL
BE POSSIBLE. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO TWEAK TEMP AND WIND GRIDS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS AND THE MENTIONED
ABOVE...OTHERWISE THE CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  28  52  35 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   58  31  53  33 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   60  30  55  35 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   56  24  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   52  24  48  29 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   51  25  47  31 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   58  28  52  34 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   53  25  48  33 /   0   0   0   0
F10   59  29  53  34 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   62  32  58  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20






000
FXUS64 KTSA 241732
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1132 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN COMMON
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
OVERNIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST.
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WESTERLY WINDS WERE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE CWA...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION
YESTERDAY WAS LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. WITH THE CWA BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE SHOULD KEEP WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
BREEZY IN THE 10 TO 25 MPH RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...THUS ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

COOLER/DRIER AIR COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF THE YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP TO KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPS CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGE. THOUGH...
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS WITH THE BREEZY
WINDS WILL CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA...A LIMITED FIRE DANGER WILL
BE POSSIBLE. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO TWEAK TEMP AND WIND GRIDS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS AND THE MENTIONED
ABOVE...OTHERWISE THE CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  28  52  35 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   58  31  53  33 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   60  30  55  35 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   56  24  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   52  24  48  29 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   51  25  47  31 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   58  28  52  34 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   53  25  48  33 /   0   0   0   0
F10   59  29  53  34 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   62  32  58  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20






000
FXUS64 KTSA 241614
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1014 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WESTERLY WINDS WERE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE CWA...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION
YESTERDAY WAS LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. WITH THE CWA BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE SHOULD KEEP WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
BREEZY IN THE 10 TO 25 MPH RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...THUS ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

COOLER/DRIER AIR COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF THE YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP TO KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPS CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGE. THOUGH...
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS WITH THE BREEZY
WINDS WILL CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA...A LIMITED FIRE DANGER WILL
BE POSSIBLE. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO TWEAK TEMP AND WIND GRIDS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS AND THE MENTIONED
ABOVE...OTHERWISE THE CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  28  52  35 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   58  31  53  33 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   60  30  55  35 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   56  24  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   52  24  48  29 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   51  25  47  31 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   58  28  52  34 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   53  25  48  33 /   0   0   0   0
F10   59  29  53  34 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   62  32  58  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20





000
FXUS64 KTSA 241614
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1014 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WESTERLY WINDS WERE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE CWA...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION
YESTERDAY WAS LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. WITH THE CWA BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE SHOULD KEEP WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
BREEZY IN THE 10 TO 25 MPH RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...THUS ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

COOLER/DRIER AIR COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF THE YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP TO KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPS CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGE. THOUGH...
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS WITH THE BREEZY
WINDS WILL CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA...A LIMITED FIRE DANGER WILL
BE POSSIBLE. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO TWEAK TEMP AND WIND GRIDS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS AND THE MENTIONED
ABOVE...OTHERWISE THE CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  28  52  35 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   58  31  53  33 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   60  30  55  35 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   56  24  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   52  24  48  29 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   51  25  47  31 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   58  28  52  34 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   53  25  48  33 /   0   0   0   0
F10   59  29  53  34 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   62  32  58  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20





000
FXUS64 KTSA 241614
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1014 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WESTERLY WINDS WERE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE CWA...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION
YESTERDAY WAS LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. WITH THE CWA BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE SHOULD KEEP WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
BREEZY IN THE 10 TO 25 MPH RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...THUS ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

COOLER/DRIER AIR COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF THE YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP TO KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPS CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGE. THOUGH...
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS WITH THE BREEZY
WINDS WILL CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA...A LIMITED FIRE DANGER WILL
BE POSSIBLE. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO TWEAK TEMP AND WIND GRIDS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS AND THE MENTIONED
ABOVE...OTHERWISE THE CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  28  52  35 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   58  31  53  33 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   60  30  55  35 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   56  24  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   52  24  48  29 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   51  25  47  31 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   58  28  52  34 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   53  25  48  33 /   0   0   0   0
F10   59  29  53  34 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   62  32  58  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20





000
FXUS64 KTSA 241614
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1014 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WESTERLY WINDS WERE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE CWA...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION
YESTERDAY WAS LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. WITH THE CWA BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE SHOULD KEEP WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
BREEZY IN THE 10 TO 25 MPH RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...THUS ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

COOLER/DRIER AIR COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF THE YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP TO KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPS CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGE. THOUGH...
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS WITH THE BREEZY
WINDS WILL CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA...A LIMITED FIRE DANGER WILL
BE POSSIBLE. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO TWEAK TEMP AND WIND GRIDS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS AND THE MENTIONED
ABOVE...OTHERWISE THE CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  28  52  35 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   58  31  53  33 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   60  30  55  35 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   56  24  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   52  24  48  29 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   51  25  47  31 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   58  28  52  34 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   53  25  48  33 /   0   0   0   0
F10   59  29  53  34 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   62  32  58  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20





000
FXUS64 KOUN 241155 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
555 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.AVIATION...
24/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. W/NW WINDS WILL INCREASE
WITH MIXING THIS MORNING MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER 23Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WITH MIXING TODAY...WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FOR SEVERAL
HOURS BUT SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ALTHOUGH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH PROBABLE. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER AREAS
NEAR AND NORTH OF OKC. A DRY AND MILD WEEK IN STORE FOR THE
REGION...AND GIVEN LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL TRENDS...LATE WEEK
AND EARLY WEEKEND TIME PERIOD COULD BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE
NOVEMBER. FORECAST TEMPS WILL BE INCREASED ABOVE BLENDED MODEL
INITIALIZATIONS. MODELS SLOWING FRONTAL INTRUSION WITH
ESTABLISHMENT OF MORE PRONOUNCED ZONAL FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. DEVELOPMENT OF WESTERN TROUGH LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK SIMILAR IN MODELS AS WELL...YIELDING MILD
CONDITIONS AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES BEYOND THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  30  54  34 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         59  28  55  32 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  32  57  34 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           55  23  54  28 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     55  26  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         60  35  57  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/11/11




000
FXUS64 KTSA 241134
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1134 AM UTC MON NOV 24 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
W-NW SFC WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 KTS TODAY AT ALL SITES. WINDS
WILL RELAX AFTER 00Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. A
COUPLE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF THE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. BEYOND
THAT TIME...MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON A
WARMER SOLUTION...WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL TEMPORARILY
BRING COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO RETURN BY NEXT TUESDAY...JUST BEYOND
THE RANGE OF THIS FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES ARE ALSO LIKELY TO
INCREASE BY THAT TIME AS STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS RETURN
GULF MOISTURE TO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
DUE IN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WENT A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
BUT OTHERWISE STAYED CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE NUMBERS THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KTSA 240934
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
334 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. A
COUPLE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF THE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. BEYOND
THAT TIME...MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON A
WARMER SOLUTION...WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL TEMPORARILY
BRING COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO RETURN BY NEXT TUESDAY...JUST BEYOND
THE RANGE OF THIS FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES ARE ALSO LIKELY TO
INCREASE BY THAT TIME AS STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS RETURN
GULF MOISTURE TO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
DUE IN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WENT A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
BUT OTHERWISE STAYED CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE NUMBERS THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  28  52  35 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   59  31  53  33 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   60  30  55  35 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   57  24  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   53  24  48  29 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   51  25  47  31 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   58  28  52  34 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   53  25  48  33 /   0   0   0   0
F10   59  29  53  34 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   62  32  58  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....05

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KTSA 240934
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
334 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. A
COUPLE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF THE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. BEYOND
THAT TIME...MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON A
WARMER SOLUTION...WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL TEMPORARILY
BRING COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO RETURN BY NEXT TUESDAY...JUST BEYOND
THE RANGE OF THIS FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES ARE ALSO LIKELY TO
INCREASE BY THAT TIME AS STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS RETURN
GULF MOISTURE TO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
DUE IN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WENT A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
BUT OTHERWISE STAYED CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE NUMBERS THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  28  52  35 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   59  31  53  33 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   60  30  55  35 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   57  24  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   53  24  48  29 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   51  25  47  31 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   58  28  52  34 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   53  25  48  33 /   0   0   0   0
F10   59  29  53  34 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   62  32  58  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....05

PLATE






000
FXUS64 KOUN 240925
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
325 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WITH MIXING TODAY...WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FOR SEVERAL
HOURS BUT SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ALTHOUGH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH PROBABLE. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER AREAS
NEAR AND NORTH OF OKC. A DRY AND MILD WEEK IN STORE FOR THE
REGION...AND GIVEN LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL TRENDS...LATE WEEK
AND EARLY WEEKEND TIME PERIOD COULD BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE
NOVEMBER. FORECAST TEMPS WILL BE INCREASED ABOVE BLENDED MODEL
INITIALIZATIONS. MODELS SLOWING FRONTAL INTRUSION WITH
ESTABLISHMENT OF MORE PRONOUNCED ZONAL FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. DEVELOPMENT OF WESTERN TROUGH LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK SIMILAR IN MODELS AS WELL...YIELDING MILD
CONDITIONS AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES BEYOND THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  30  54  34 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         59  28  55  32 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  32  57  34 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           55  23  54  28 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     55  26  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         60  35  57  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 240925
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
325 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WITH MIXING TODAY...WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FOR SEVERAL
HOURS BUT SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ALTHOUGH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH PROBABLE. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER AREAS
NEAR AND NORTH OF OKC. A DRY AND MILD WEEK IN STORE FOR THE
REGION...AND GIVEN LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL TRENDS...LATE WEEK
AND EARLY WEEKEND TIME PERIOD COULD BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE
NOVEMBER. FORECAST TEMPS WILL BE INCREASED ABOVE BLENDED MODEL
INITIALIZATIONS. MODELS SLOWING FRONTAL INTRUSION WITH
ESTABLISHMENT OF MORE PRONOUNCED ZONAL FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. DEVELOPMENT OF WESTERN TROUGH LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK SIMILAR IN MODELS AS WELL...YIELDING MILD
CONDITIONS AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES BEYOND THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  30  54  34 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         59  28  55  32 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  32  57  34 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           55  23  54  28 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     55  26  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         60  35  57  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 240925
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
325 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WITH MIXING TODAY...WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FOR SEVERAL
HOURS BUT SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ALTHOUGH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH PROBABLE. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER AREAS
NEAR AND NORTH OF OKC. A DRY AND MILD WEEK IN STORE FOR THE
REGION...AND GIVEN LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL TRENDS...LATE WEEK
AND EARLY WEEKEND TIME PERIOD COULD BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE
NOVEMBER. FORECAST TEMPS WILL BE INCREASED ABOVE BLENDED MODEL
INITIALIZATIONS. MODELS SLOWING FRONTAL INTRUSION WITH
ESTABLISHMENT OF MORE PRONOUNCED ZONAL FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. DEVELOPMENT OF WESTERN TROUGH LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK SIMILAR IN MODELS AS WELL...YIELDING MILD
CONDITIONS AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES BEYOND THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  30  54  34 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         59  28  55  32 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  32  57  34 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           55  23  54  28 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     55  26  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         60  35  57  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 240925
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
325 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WITH MIXING TODAY...WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FOR SEVERAL
HOURS BUT SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ALTHOUGH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH PROBABLE. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER AREAS
NEAR AND NORTH OF OKC. A DRY AND MILD WEEK IN STORE FOR THE
REGION...AND GIVEN LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL TRENDS...LATE WEEK
AND EARLY WEEKEND TIME PERIOD COULD BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE
NOVEMBER. FORECAST TEMPS WILL BE INCREASED ABOVE BLENDED MODEL
INITIALIZATIONS. MODELS SLOWING FRONTAL INTRUSION WITH
ESTABLISHMENT OF MORE PRONOUNCED ZONAL FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. DEVELOPMENT OF WESTERN TROUGH LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK SIMILAR IN MODELS AS WELL...YIELDING MILD
CONDITIONS AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES BEYOND THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  30  54  34 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         59  28  55  32 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  32  57  34 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           55  23  54  28 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     55  26  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         60  35  57  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/11



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