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000
FXUS64 KOUN 180500
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE AT KLAW AND KSPS FROM 08Z THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY RESULT IN EASTERLY WINDS FOR A
FEW HOURS DURING THE MORNING AT KPNC. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE AND
SHIFT BACK TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. SPOTTY SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP FROM I-40 SOUTHWARD...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS TO ANY ONE TERMINAL REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS MAINLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK
IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF W TX. LATER HRRR RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
ACTIVITY MOVING FROM KS INTO NRN OK OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH
SHOWERS/TSTMS STILL LINGERING IN ERN OK AND SFC BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA WILL ALSO LEAVE LOW POPS MAINLY E OF I-35.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  90  69  88 /  10  30  10  10
HOBART OK         71  91  69  88 /  10  30  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  91  70  89 /  20  30  20  20
GAGE OK           64  90  66  87 /   0  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     70  89  69  89 /  10  20  10  10
DURANT OK         72  89  69  88 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

02/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 180500
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE AT KLAW AND KSPS FROM 08Z THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY RESULT IN EASTERLY WINDS FOR A
FEW HOURS DURING THE MORNING AT KPNC. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE AND
SHIFT BACK TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. SPOTTY SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP FROM I-40 SOUTHWARD...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS TO ANY ONE TERMINAL REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS MAINLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK
IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF W TX. LATER HRRR RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
ACTIVITY MOVING FROM KS INTO NRN OK OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH
SHOWERS/TSTMS STILL LINGERING IN ERN OK AND SFC BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA WILL ALSO LEAVE LOW POPS MAINLY E OF I-35.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  90  69  88 /  10  30  10  10
HOBART OK         71  91  69  88 /  10  30  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  91  70  89 /  20  30  20  20
GAGE OK           64  90  66  87 /   0  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     70  89  69  89 /  10  20  10  10
DURANT OK         72  89  69  88 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

02/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 180500
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE AT KLAW AND KSPS FROM 08Z THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY RESULT IN EASTERLY WINDS FOR A
FEW HOURS DURING THE MORNING AT KPNC. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE AND
SHIFT BACK TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. SPOTTY SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP FROM I-40 SOUTHWARD...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS TO ANY ONE TERMINAL REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS MAINLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK
IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF W TX. LATER HRRR RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
ACTIVITY MOVING FROM KS INTO NRN OK OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH
SHOWERS/TSTMS STILL LINGERING IN ERN OK AND SFC BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA WILL ALSO LEAVE LOW POPS MAINLY E OF I-35.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  90  69  88 /  10  30  10  10
HOBART OK         71  91  69  88 /  10  30  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  91  70  89 /  20  30  20  20
GAGE OK           64  90  66  87 /   0  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     70  89  69  89 /  10  20  10  10
DURANT OK         72  89  69  88 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

02/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 180500
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE AT KLAW AND KSPS FROM 08Z THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY RESULT IN EASTERLY WINDS FOR A
FEW HOURS DURING THE MORNING AT KPNC. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE AND
SHIFT BACK TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. SPOTTY SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP FROM I-40 SOUTHWARD...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS TO ANY ONE TERMINAL REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS MAINLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK
IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF W TX. LATER HRRR RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
ACTIVITY MOVING FROM KS INTO NRN OK OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH
SHOWERS/TSTMS STILL LINGERING IN ERN OK AND SFC BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA WILL ALSO LEAVE LOW POPS MAINLY E OF I-35.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  90  69  88 /  10  30  10  10
HOBART OK         71  91  69  88 /  10  30  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  91  70  89 /  20  30  20  20
GAGE OK           64  90  66  87 /   0  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     70  89  69  89 /  10  20  10  10
DURANT OK         72  89  69  88 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

02/84



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KTSA 180443
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1143 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS EVENING...AND WILL IMPACT
THE KMLC TAF SITE THROUGH 07Z. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF VCTS
FOR ALL SITES EXPECT KMLC AFTER 10-12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 842 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM NEAR CLAREMORE OKLAHOMA
TO NEAR FORT SMITH ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
SAG TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS IT SLOWLY
DISSIPATES. HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS ACCORDINGLY. THE THREAT FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO LINGER FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS THE
STORMS MOVE INTO A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. HAIL AND HEAVY RAINS WILL COTINUE
TO BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  88  68  88 /  10  40  10  10
FSM   67  87  67  85 /  20  50  10  10
MLC   69  88  68  87 /  50  40  10  10
BVO   67  86  66  88 /  10  40  10  10
FYV   64  81  63  82 /  20  50  10  10
BYV   63  79  62  81 /  20  40  10  10
MKO   68  87  66  86 /  10  50  10  10
MIO   67  82  66  85 /  20  50  10  10
F10   69  88  68  87 /  60  40  10  10
HHW   70  88  68  87 /  40  30  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18





000
FXUS64 KTSA 180443
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1143 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS EVENING...AND WILL IMPACT
THE KMLC TAF SITE THROUGH 07Z. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF VCTS
FOR ALL SITES EXPECT KMLC AFTER 10-12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 842 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM NEAR CLAREMORE OKLAHOMA
TO NEAR FORT SMITH ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
SAG TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS IT SLOWLY
DISSIPATES. HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS ACCORDINGLY. THE THREAT FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO LINGER FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS THE
STORMS MOVE INTO A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. HAIL AND HEAVY RAINS WILL COTINUE
TO BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  88  68  88 /  10  40  10  10
FSM   67  87  67  85 /  20  50  10  10
MLC   69  88  68  87 /  50  40  10  10
BVO   67  86  66  88 /  10  40  10  10
FYV   64  81  63  82 /  20  50  10  10
BYV   63  79  62  81 /  20  40  10  10
MKO   68  87  66  86 /  10  50  10  10
MIO   67  82  66  85 /  20  50  10  10
F10   69  88  68  87 /  60  40  10  10
HHW   70  88  68  87 /  40  30  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18






000
FXUS64 KOUN 180236
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
936 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS MAINLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK
IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF W TX. LATER HRRR RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
ACTIVITY MOVING FROM KS INTO NRN OK OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH
SHOWERS/TSTMS STILL LINGERING IN ERN OK AND SFC BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA WILL ALSO LEAVE LOW POPS MAINLY E OF I-35.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  90  69  88 /  10  30  10  10
HOBART OK         71  91  69  88 /  10  30  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  91  70  89 /  20  30  20  20
GAGE OK           64  90  66  87 /   0  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     70  89  69  89 /  10  20  10  10
DURANT OK         72  89  69  88 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

02/84



000
FXUS64 KOUN 180236
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
936 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS MAINLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK
IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF W TX. LATER HRRR RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
ACTIVITY MOVING FROM KS INTO NRN OK OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH
SHOWERS/TSTMS STILL LINGERING IN ERN OK AND SFC BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA WILL ALSO LEAVE LOW POPS MAINLY E OF I-35.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  90  69  88 /  10  30  10  10
HOBART OK         71  91  69  88 /  10  30  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  91  70  89 /  20  30  20  20
GAGE OK           64  90  66  87 /   0  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     70  89  69  89 /  10  20  10  10
DURANT OK         72  89  69  88 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

02/84




000
FXUS64 KTSA 180142
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
842 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM NEAR CLAREMORE OKLAHOMA
TO NEAR FORT SMITH ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
SAG TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS IT SLOWLY
DISSIPATES. HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS ACCORDINGLY. THE THREAT FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO LINGER FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS THE
STORMS MOVE INTO A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. HAIL AND HEAVY RAINS WILL COTINUE
TO BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10







000
FXUS64 KTSA 180142
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
842 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM NEAR CLAREMORE OKLAHOMA
TO NEAR FORT SMITH ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
SAG TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS IT SLOWLY
DISSIPATES. HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS ACCORDINGLY. THE THREAT FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO LINGER FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS THE
STORMS MOVE INTO A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. HAIL AND HEAVY RAINS WILL COTINUE
TO BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 172331
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
631 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...LIKELY WEAKENING AFTER 03Z. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN AND NEAR STORMS...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS
LATER TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. HAVE
INCLUDED A MENTION OF VCTS FOR TAF SITES (EXCEPT KMLC)
AFTER 08Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS NW AR IS LIKELY TO SPREAD
SOUTH AND SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS WEAK
SYNOPTIC LIFT AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTERACT. A FEW SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY
STRENGTHENS. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
AS A WAVE CURRENTLY NOTED IN VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN MONTANA
DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
RESULTANT FORECAST WILL TREND HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR PRECIP
CHANCES TOMORROW ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN OK / WESTERN AR.

A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES
AGAIN INCREASE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. THE REMNANT
IMPULSE FROM ODILE WILL PUSH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING
AND INTERACT W/ A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS CURRENTLY RESIDING
OVER SOUTHERN TX WILL ALSO BE DRAWN NORTH AND EASTWARD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THE EXACT INTERACTION W/ THESE FEATURES HAS YET TO BE
DETERMINED...HOWEVER THERE HAS BEEN A TREND THAT THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION STALLS TO OUR WEST AND THUS THE HEAVIER PRECIP AXIS.
WHILE PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN RATHER GOOD FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THE LOCATION
OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAS YET TO BE EXACTLY DETERMINED.

ONCE THE WEEKEND FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES A PERIOD OF SEASONABLY
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  88  68  88 /  10  40  10  10
FSM   67  87  67  85 /  30  50  10  10
MLC   69  88  68  87 /  10  40  10  10
BVO   67  86  66  88 /  10  40  10  10
FYV   64  81  63  82 /  40  50  10  10
BYV   63  79  62  81 /  40  40  10  10
MKO   68  87  66  86 /  30  50  10  10
MIO   67  82  66  85 /  30  50  10  10
F10   69  88  68  87 /  10  40  10  10
HHW   70  88  68  87 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 172331
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
631 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...LIKELY WEAKENING AFTER 03Z. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN AND NEAR STORMS...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS
LATER TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. HAVE
INCLUDED A MENTION OF VCTS FOR TAF SITES (EXCEPT KMLC)
AFTER 08Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS NW AR IS LIKELY TO SPREAD
SOUTH AND SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS WEAK
SYNOPTIC LIFT AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTERACT. A FEW SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY
STRENGTHENS. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
AS A WAVE CURRENTLY NOTED IN VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN MONTANA
DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
RESULTANT FORECAST WILL TREND HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR PRECIP
CHANCES TOMORROW ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN OK / WESTERN AR.

A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES
AGAIN INCREASE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. THE REMNANT
IMPULSE FROM ODILE WILL PUSH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING
AND INTERACT W/ A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS CURRENTLY RESIDING
OVER SOUTHERN TX WILL ALSO BE DRAWN NORTH AND EASTWARD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THE EXACT INTERACTION W/ THESE FEATURES HAS YET TO BE
DETERMINED...HOWEVER THERE HAS BEEN A TREND THAT THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION STALLS TO OUR WEST AND THUS THE HEAVIER PRECIP AXIS.
WHILE PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN RATHER GOOD FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THE LOCATION
OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAS YET TO BE EXACTLY DETERMINED.

ONCE THE WEEKEND FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES A PERIOD OF SEASONABLY
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  88  68  88 /  10  40  10  10
FSM   67  87  67  85 /  30  50  10  10
MLC   69  88  68  87 /  10  40  10  10
BVO   67  86  66  88 /  10  40  10  10
FYV   64  81  63  82 /  40  50  10  10
BYV   63  79  62  81 /  40  40  10  10
MKO   68  87  66  86 /  30  50  10  10
MIO   67  82  66  85 /  30  50  10  10
F10   69  88  68  87 /  10  40  10  10
HHW   70  88  68  87 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18





000
FXUS64 KOUN 172328
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
628 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO FOR TSRA AT KSPS...WITH VCTS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS
THROUGH 02Z. WIND FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH
A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY ON THURS.
REGARDLESS...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT STRONG...AND
IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL DESPITE SLIGHT DIRECTIONAL CHANGES.
ISOLATED TSRA MAY AFFECT TERMINALS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS FROM 18Z TO 00Z THURS...BUT OPTED TO
REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TRYING TO SLIP INTO OUR TX
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE EVENING. AT LEAST LOW CHCS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THIS AREA
THROUGH TOMORROW AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE RIDGE
NEAR THE RED RIVER. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE RAIN CHCS INCREASE LATE FRI AND EARLY
SATURDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ODILE APPROACH THE WESTERN ZONES.

IN THE EXTENDED...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ODILE...CURRENTLY ACROSS MEXICO AND MOVING INTO THE U.S.
SOUTHWEST...BRINGING IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE SHORTWAVE...COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE...WILL RESULT IN INCREASING TSRA POPS FOR OUR
SATURDAY/SUNDAY PERIODS. LATEST QPF GUIDANCE SUGGEST HIGH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES. A SOMEWHAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY, BRIEFLY BRINGING IN JUST
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGING WILL BEGIN BUILDING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  90  69  88 /  10  30  10  10
HOBART OK         71  91  69  88 /  10  30  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  91  70  89 /  20  30  20  20
GAGE OK           64  90  66  87 /   0  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     70  89  69  89 /  10  20  10  10
DURANT OK         72  89  69  88 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

02/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 172328
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
628 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO FOR TSRA AT KSPS...WITH VCTS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS
THROUGH 02Z. WIND FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH
A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY ON THURS.
REGARDLESS...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT STRONG...AND
IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL DESPITE SLIGHT DIRECTIONAL CHANGES.
ISOLATED TSRA MAY AFFECT TERMINALS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS FROM 18Z TO 00Z THURS...BUT OPTED TO
REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TRYING TO SLIP INTO OUR TX
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE EVENING. AT LEAST LOW CHCS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THIS AREA
THROUGH TOMORROW AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE RIDGE
NEAR THE RED RIVER. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE RAIN CHCS INCREASE LATE FRI AND EARLY
SATURDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ODILE APPROACH THE WESTERN ZONES.

IN THE EXTENDED...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ODILE...CURRENTLY ACROSS MEXICO AND MOVING INTO THE U.S.
SOUTHWEST...BRINGING IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE SHORTWAVE...COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE...WILL RESULT IN INCREASING TSRA POPS FOR OUR
SATURDAY/SUNDAY PERIODS. LATEST QPF GUIDANCE SUGGEST HIGH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES. A SOMEWHAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY, BRIEFLY BRINGING IN JUST
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGING WILL BEGIN BUILDING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  90  69  88 /  10  30  10  10
HOBART OK         71  91  69  88 /  10  30  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  91  70  89 /  20  30  20  20
GAGE OK           64  90  66  87 /   0  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     70  89  69  89 /  10  20  10  10
DURANT OK         72  89  69  88 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

02/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 172328
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
628 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO FOR TSRA AT KSPS...WITH VCTS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS
THROUGH 02Z. WIND FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH
A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY ON THURS.
REGARDLESS...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT STRONG...AND
IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL DESPITE SLIGHT DIRECTIONAL CHANGES.
ISOLATED TSRA MAY AFFECT TERMINALS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS FROM 18Z TO 00Z THURS...BUT OPTED TO
REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TRYING TO SLIP INTO OUR TX
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE EVENING. AT LEAST LOW CHCS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THIS AREA
THROUGH TOMORROW AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE RIDGE
NEAR THE RED RIVER. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE RAIN CHCS INCREASE LATE FRI AND EARLY
SATURDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ODILE APPROACH THE WESTERN ZONES.

IN THE EXTENDED...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ODILE...CURRENTLY ACROSS MEXICO AND MOVING INTO THE U.S.
SOUTHWEST...BRINGING IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE SHORTWAVE...COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE...WILL RESULT IN INCREASING TSRA POPS FOR OUR
SATURDAY/SUNDAY PERIODS. LATEST QPF GUIDANCE SUGGEST HIGH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES. A SOMEWHAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY, BRIEFLY BRINGING IN JUST
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGING WILL BEGIN BUILDING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  90  69  88 /  10  30  10  10
HOBART OK         71  91  69  88 /  10  30  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  91  70  89 /  20  30  20  20
GAGE OK           64  90  66  87 /   0  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     70  89  69  89 /  10  20  10  10
DURANT OK         72  89  69  88 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

02/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 172328
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
628 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO FOR TSRA AT KSPS...WITH VCTS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS
THROUGH 02Z. WIND FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH
A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY ON THURS.
REGARDLESS...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT STRONG...AND
IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL DESPITE SLIGHT DIRECTIONAL CHANGES.
ISOLATED TSRA MAY AFFECT TERMINALS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS FROM 18Z TO 00Z THURS...BUT OPTED TO
REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TRYING TO SLIP INTO OUR TX
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE EVENING. AT LEAST LOW CHCS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THIS AREA
THROUGH TOMORROW AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE RIDGE
NEAR THE RED RIVER. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE RAIN CHCS INCREASE LATE FRI AND EARLY
SATURDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ODILE APPROACH THE WESTERN ZONES.

IN THE EXTENDED...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ODILE...CURRENTLY ACROSS MEXICO AND MOVING INTO THE U.S.
SOUTHWEST...BRINGING IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE SHORTWAVE...COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE...WILL RESULT IN INCREASING TSRA POPS FOR OUR
SATURDAY/SUNDAY PERIODS. LATEST QPF GUIDANCE SUGGEST HIGH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES. A SOMEWHAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY, BRIEFLY BRINGING IN JUST
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGING WILL BEGIN BUILDING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  90  69  88 /  10  30  10  10
HOBART OK         71  91  69  88 /  10  30  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  91  70  89 /  20  30  20  20
GAGE OK           64  90  66  87 /   0  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     70  89  69  89 /  10  20  10  10
DURANT OK         72  89  69  88 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

02/84




000
FXUS64 KTSA 172053
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
353 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS NW AR IS LIKELY TO SPREAD
SOUTH AND SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS WEAK
SYNOPTIC LIFT AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTERACT. A FEW SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY
STRENGTHENS. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
AS A WAVE CURRENTLY NOTED IN VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN MONTANA
DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
RESULTANT FORECAST WILL TREND HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR PRECIP
CHANCES TOMORROW ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN OK / WESTERN AR.

A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES
AGAIN INCREASE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. THE REMNANT
IMPULSE FROM ODILE WILL PUSH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING
AND INTERACT W/ A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS CURRENTLY RESIDING
OVER SOUTHERN TX WILL ALSO BE DRAWN NORTH AND EASTWARD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THE EXACT INTERACTION W/ THESE FEATURES HAS YET TO BE
DETERMINED...HOWEVER THERE HAS BEEN A TREND THAT THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION STALLS TO OUR WEST AND THUS THE HEAVIER PRECIP AXIS.
WHILE PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN RATHER GOOD FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THE LOCATION
OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAS YET TO BE EXACTLY DETERMINED.

ONCE THE WEEKEND FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES A PERIOD OF SEASONABLY
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  88  68  88 /  10  40  10  10
FSM   67  87  67  85 /  30  50  10  10
MLC   69  88  68  87 /  10  40  10  10
BVO   67  86  66  88 /  10  40  10  10
FYV   64  81  63  82 /  40  50  10  10
BYV   63  79  62  81 /  40  40  10  10
MKO   68  87  66  86 /  30  50  10  10
MIO   67  82  66  85 /  30  50  10  10
F10   69  88  68  87 /  10  40  10  10
HHW   70  88  68  87 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07





000
FXUS64 KTSA 172053
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
353 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS NW AR IS LIKELY TO SPREAD
SOUTH AND SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS WEAK
SYNOPTIC LIFT AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTERACT. A FEW SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY
STRENGTHENS. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
AS A WAVE CURRENTLY NOTED IN VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN MONTANA
DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
RESULTANT FORECAST WILL TREND HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR PRECIP
CHANCES TOMORROW ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN OK / WESTERN AR.

A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES
AGAIN INCREASE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. THE REMNANT
IMPULSE FROM ODILE WILL PUSH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING
AND INTERACT W/ A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS CURRENTLY RESIDING
OVER SOUTHERN TX WILL ALSO BE DRAWN NORTH AND EASTWARD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THE EXACT INTERACTION W/ THESE FEATURES HAS YET TO BE
DETERMINED...HOWEVER THERE HAS BEEN A TREND THAT THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION STALLS TO OUR WEST AND THUS THE HEAVIER PRECIP AXIS.
WHILE PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN RATHER GOOD FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THE LOCATION
OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAS YET TO BE EXACTLY DETERMINED.

ONCE THE WEEKEND FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES A PERIOD OF SEASONABLY
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  88  68  88 /  10  40  10  10
FSM   67  87  67  85 /  30  50  10  10
MLC   69  88  68  87 /  10  40  10  10
BVO   67  86  66  88 /  10  40  10  10
FYV   64  81  63  82 /  40  50  10  10
BYV   63  79  62  81 /  40  40  10  10
MKO   68  87  66  86 /  30  50  10  10
MIO   67  82  66  85 /  30  50  10  10
F10   69  88  68  87 /  10  40  10  10
HHW   70  88  68  87 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07






000
FXUS64 KOUN 172042
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
342 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TRYING TO SLIP INTO OUR TX
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE EVENING. AT LEAST LOW CHCS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THIS AREA
THROUGH TOMORROW AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE RIDGE
NEAR THE RED RIVER. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE RAIN CHCS INCREASE LATE FRI AND EARLY
SATURDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ODILE APPROACH THE WESTERN ZONES.

IN THE EXTENDED...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ODILE...CURRENTLY ACROSS MEXICO AND MOVING INTO THE U.S.
SOUTHWEST...BRINGING IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE SHORTWAVE...COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE...WILL RESULT IN INCREASING TSRA POPS FOR OUR
SATURDAY/SUNDAY PERIODS. LATEST QPF GUIDANCE SUGGEST HIGH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES. A SOMEWHAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY, BRIEFLY BRINGING IN JUST
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGING WILL BEGIN BUILDING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  89  69  86 /  10  20  10  10
HOBART OK         69  89  68  86 /  10  10  10  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  71  90  69  88 /  20  30  10  40
GAGE OK           65  90  66  86 /  10  10  10  40
PONCA CITY OK     67  89  69  87 /  20  20  10  10
DURANT OK         70  88  69  86 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 172042
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
342 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TRYING TO SLIP INTO OUR TX
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE EVENING. AT LEAST LOW CHCS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THIS AREA
THROUGH TOMORROW AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE RIDGE
NEAR THE RED RIVER. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE RAIN CHCS INCREASE LATE FRI AND EARLY
SATURDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ODILE APPROACH THE WESTERN ZONES.

IN THE EXTENDED...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ODILE...CURRENTLY ACROSS MEXICO AND MOVING INTO THE U.S.
SOUTHWEST...BRINGING IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE SHORTWAVE...COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE...WILL RESULT IN INCREASING TSRA POPS FOR OUR
SATURDAY/SUNDAY PERIODS. LATEST QPF GUIDANCE SUGGEST HIGH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES. A SOMEWHAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY, BRIEFLY BRINGING IN JUST
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGING WILL BEGIN BUILDING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  89  69  86 /  10  20  10  10
HOBART OK         69  89  68  86 /  10  10  10  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  71  90  69  88 /  20  30  10  40
GAGE OK           65  90  66  86 /  10  10  10  40
PONCA CITY OK     67  89  69  87 /  20  20  10  10
DURANT OK         70  88  69  86 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/03



000
FXUS64 KTSA 171850
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
150 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND ARE
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND INTO PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INSTABILITY OVER
THE REGION COMBINED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING
THE MAIN HAZARDS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WILL SEND AN AFTERNOON
UPDATE INCREASING POPS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND ALSO TO
INCREASE TEMPS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA. A LACK OF INFLUENCE
FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA HAS HELPED TEMPS
WARM INTO THE LOW 90S OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  88  69  89 /  30  30  10  10
FSM   68  85  67  87 /  40  40  10  10
MLC   71  87  68  86 /  20  30  10  10
BVO   67  87  67  88 /  40  30  10  10
FYV   65  83  64  84 /  60  40  10  10
BYV   64  80  64  82 /  60  40  10  10
MKO   68  86  67  86 /  20  40  10  10
MIO   67  84  66  85 /  60  40  10  10
F10   69  87  68  86 /  20  30  10  10
HHW   70  88  68  87 /  20  40  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....99






000
FXUS64 KOUN 171749
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1249 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN UNDER VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOW CONFIDENCE THAT ISOLATED -TSRA CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE COULD AFFECT TERMINAL KSPS, SO WILL MONITOR AND AMEND
THAT TERMINAL IF NECESSARY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...LIGHT FOG PERHAPS LOW CLOUDS MAY IMPACT
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN IMPACT
FROM ODILE WILL BE MIDDAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

MEANWHILE...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF TWO AREAS. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FORM THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS AND MISSOURI WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED
AS FAR SOUTH AS GRANT/KAY COUNTIES. BETTER WAA AND FLOW SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA TODAY.
WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FOR
SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL BE CLOSER TO BETTER MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO WILL KEEP LOW
POPS ACROSS THIS AREA.

RAISED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA ON
FRIDAY AS GFS/EC ARE SIMILAR IN TRACKING REMNANTS NEAR TEXAS/OK
PANHANDLES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS DIVERGE ON HOW
QUICKLY THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE EC IS SLOWER WHILE THE GFS IN MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CHANCES
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES THIS WEEKEND...MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
STORMS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  69  89  69 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         90  69  89  68 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  90  71  90  69 /  20  20  30  10
GAGE OK           91  65  90  66 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     89  67  89  69 /  10  20  20  10
DURANT OK         89  70  88  69 /  20  20  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/03/67



000
FXUS64 KOUN 171749
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1249 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN UNDER VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOW CONFIDENCE THAT ISOLATED -TSRA CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE COULD AFFECT TERMINAL KSPS, SO WILL MONITOR AND AMEND
THAT TERMINAL IF NECESSARY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...LIGHT FOG PERHAPS LOW CLOUDS MAY IMPACT
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN IMPACT
FROM ODILE WILL BE MIDDAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

MEANWHILE...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF TWO AREAS. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FORM THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS AND MISSOURI WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED
AS FAR SOUTH AS GRANT/KAY COUNTIES. BETTER WAA AND FLOW SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA TODAY.
WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FOR
SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL BE CLOSER TO BETTER MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO WILL KEEP LOW
POPS ACROSS THIS AREA.

RAISED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA ON
FRIDAY AS GFS/EC ARE SIMILAR IN TRACKING REMNANTS NEAR TEXAS/OK
PANHANDLES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS DIVERGE ON HOW
QUICKLY THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE EC IS SLOWER WHILE THE GFS IN MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CHANCES
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES THIS WEEKEND...MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
STORMS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  69  89  69 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         90  69  89  68 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  90  71  90  69 /  20  20  30  10
GAGE OK           91  65  90  66 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     89  67  89  69 /  10  20  20  10
DURANT OK         89  70  88  69 /  20  20  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/03/67



000
FXUS64 KOUN 171749
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1249 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN UNDER VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOW CONFIDENCE THAT ISOLATED -TSRA CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE COULD AFFECT TERMINAL KSPS, SO WILL MONITOR AND AMEND
THAT TERMINAL IF NECESSARY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...LIGHT FOG PERHAPS LOW CLOUDS MAY IMPACT
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN IMPACT
FROM ODILE WILL BE MIDDAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

MEANWHILE...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF TWO AREAS. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FORM THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS AND MISSOURI WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED
AS FAR SOUTH AS GRANT/KAY COUNTIES. BETTER WAA AND FLOW SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA TODAY.
WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FOR
SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL BE CLOSER TO BETTER MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO WILL KEEP LOW
POPS ACROSS THIS AREA.

RAISED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA ON
FRIDAY AS GFS/EC ARE SIMILAR IN TRACKING REMNANTS NEAR TEXAS/OK
PANHANDLES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS DIVERGE ON HOW
QUICKLY THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE EC IS SLOWER WHILE THE GFS IN MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CHANCES
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES THIS WEEKEND...MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
STORMS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  69  89  69 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         90  69  89  68 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  90  71  90  69 /  20  20  30  10
GAGE OK           91  65  90  66 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     89  67  89  69 /  10  20  20  10
DURANT OK         89  70  88  69 /  20  20  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/03/67



000
FXUS64 KOUN 171749
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1249 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN UNDER VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOW CONFIDENCE THAT ISOLATED -TSRA CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE COULD AFFECT TERMINAL KSPS, SO WILL MONITOR AND AMEND
THAT TERMINAL IF NECESSARY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...LIGHT FOG PERHAPS LOW CLOUDS MAY IMPACT
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN IMPACT
FROM ODILE WILL BE MIDDAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

MEANWHILE...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF TWO AREAS. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FORM THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS AND MISSOURI WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED
AS FAR SOUTH AS GRANT/KAY COUNTIES. BETTER WAA AND FLOW SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA TODAY.
WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FOR
SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL BE CLOSER TO BETTER MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO WILL KEEP LOW
POPS ACROSS THIS AREA.

RAISED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA ON
FRIDAY AS GFS/EC ARE SIMILAR IN TRACKING REMNANTS NEAR TEXAS/OK
PANHANDLES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS DIVERGE ON HOW
QUICKLY THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE EC IS SLOWER WHILE THE GFS IN MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CHANCES
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES THIS WEEKEND...MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
STORMS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  69  89  69 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         90  69  89  68 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  90  71  90  69 /  20  20  30  10
GAGE OK           91  65  90  66 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     89  67  89  69 /  10  20  20  10
DURANT OK         89  70  88  69 /  20  20  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/03/67



000
FXUS64 KTSA 171733
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1233 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN COMMON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
REGION INTERACTS WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE. GREATER PRECIP
CHANCES LOOK TO BE OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND WILL ADD
VCTS/PROB30 GROUPS TO XNA/FYV/FSM. ALSO...PATCHY AREAS OF LOW
VIS/CIGS COULD BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
ACROSS THE REGION. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY CONDITIONS SHOULD LIFT
BACK TO VFR WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WILL LEAVE OUT PRECIP MENTION FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING...WITH PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS STILL OBSERVING SOME
LOW CEILINGS/AREAS OF FOG. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE ATTENTION TURNING TOWARD CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A MCS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WAS BEGINNING TO
PUSH INTO NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH OVER FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA. VERTICAL SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION COULD ALLOW FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TO BECOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE.

PARTY CLOUDY SKIES LOOK TO BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WARMER TEMPS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. HIGHS IN UPPER 80S/LOW 90 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST MORNING
POPS/WX/SKY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND TO CLEAN UP ANY
EARLY MORNING WORDING IN THE ZONES. THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS
TO BE HANDLING WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  88  69  89 /  30  30  10  10
FSM   68  85  67  87 /  40  40  10  10
MLC   71  87  68  86 /  20  30  10  10
BVO   67  87  67  88 /  40  30  10  10
FYV   65  83  64  84 /  60  40  10  10
BYV   64  80  64  82 /  60  40  10  10
MKO   68  86  67  86 /  20  40  10  10
MIO   67  84  66  85 /  60  40  10  10
F10   69  87  68  86 /  20  30  10  10
HHW   70  88  68  87 /  20  40  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20






000
FXUS64 KTSA 171517
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1017 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING...WITH PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS STILL OBSERVING SOME
LOW CEILINGS/AREAS OF FOG. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE ATTENTION TURNING TOWARD CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A MCS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WAS BEGINNING TO
PUSH INTO NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH OVER FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA. VERTICAL SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION COULD ALLOW FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TO BECOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE.

PARTY CLOUDY SKIES LOOK TO BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WARMER TEMPS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. HIGHS IN UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND IN THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST MORNING
POPS/WX/SKY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND TO CLEAN UP ANY
EARLY MORNING WORDING IN THE ZONES. THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS
TO BE HANDLING WELL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  69  88  69 /  10  30  30  10
FSM   86  68  85  67 /  20  40  40  10
MLC   88  71  87  68 /  10  20  30  10
BVO   90  67  87  67 /  10  40  30  10
FYV   83  65  83  64 /  30  60  40  10
BYV   82  64  80  64 /  50  60  40  10
MKO   87  68  86  67 /  10  20  40  10
MIO   85  67  84  66 /  50  60  40  10
F10   87  69  87  68 /  10  20  30  10
HHW   88  70  88  68 /  10  20  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 171517
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1017 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING...WITH PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS STILL OBSERVING SOME
LOW CEILINGS/AREAS OF FOG. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE ATTENTION TURNING TOWARD CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A MCS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WAS BEGINNING TO
PUSH INTO NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH OVER FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA. VERTICAL SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION COULD ALLOW FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TO BECOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE.

PARTY CLOUDY SKIES LOOK TO BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WARMER TEMPS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. HIGHS IN UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND IN THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST MORNING
POPS/WX/SKY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND TO CLEAN UP ANY
EARLY MORNING WORDING IN THE ZONES. THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS
TO BE HANDLING WELL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  69  88  69 /  10  30  30  10
FSM   86  68  85  67 /  20  40  40  10
MLC   88  71  87  68 /  10  20  30  10
BVO   90  67  87  67 /  10  40  30  10
FYV   83  65  83  64 /  30  60  40  10
BYV   82  64  80  64 /  50  60  40  10
MKO   87  68  86  67 /  10  20  40  10
MIO   85  67  84  66 /  50  60  40  10
F10   87  69  87  68 /  10  20  30  10
HHW   88  70  88  68 /  10  20  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 171517
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1017 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING...WITH PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS STILL OBSERVING SOME
LOW CEILINGS/AREAS OF FOG. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE ATTENTION TURNING TOWARD CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A MCS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WAS BEGINNING TO
PUSH INTO NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH OVER FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA. VERTICAL SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION COULD ALLOW FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TO BECOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE.

PARTY CLOUDY SKIES LOOK TO BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WARMER TEMPS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. HIGHS IN UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND IN THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST MORNING
POPS/WX/SKY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND TO CLEAN UP ANY
EARLY MORNING WORDING IN THE ZONES. THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS
TO BE HANDLING WELL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  69  88  69 /  10  30  30  10
FSM   86  68  85  67 /  20  40  40  10
MLC   88  71  87  68 /  10  20  30  10
BVO   90  67  87  67 /  10  40  30  10
FYV   83  65  83  64 /  30  60  40  10
BYV   82  64  80  64 /  50  60  40  10
MKO   87  68  86  67 /  10  20  40  10
MIO   85  67  84  66 /  50  60  40  10
F10   87  69  87  68 /  10  20  30  10
HHW   88  70  88  68 /  10  20  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 171517
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1017 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING...WITH PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS STILL OBSERVING SOME
LOW CEILINGS/AREAS OF FOG. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE ATTENTION TURNING TOWARD CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A MCS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WAS BEGINNING TO
PUSH INTO NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH OVER FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA. VERTICAL SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION COULD ALLOW FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TO BECOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE.

PARTY CLOUDY SKIES LOOK TO BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WARMER TEMPS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. HIGHS IN UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND IN THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST MORNING
POPS/WX/SKY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND TO CLEAN UP ANY
EARLY MORNING WORDING IN THE ZONES. THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS
TO BE HANDLING WELL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  69  88  69 /  10  30  30  10
FSM   86  68  85  67 /  20  40  40  10
MLC   88  71  87  68 /  10  20  30  10
BVO   90  67  87  67 /  10  40  30  10
FYV   83  65  83  64 /  30  60  40  10
BYV   82  64  80  64 /  50  60  40  10
MKO   87  68  86  67 /  10  20  40  10
MIO   85  67  84  66 /  50  60  40  10
F10   87  69  87  68 /  10  20  30  10
HHW   88  70  88  68 /  10  20  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....07






000
FXUS64 KOUN 171159
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
659 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...LIGHT FOG PERHAPS LOW CLOUDS MAY IMPACT
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN IMPACT
FROM ODILE WILL BE MIDDAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

MEANWHILE...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF TWO AREAS. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FORM THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS AND MISSOURI WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED
AS FAR SOUTH AS GRANT/KAY COUNTIES. BETTER WAA AND FLOW SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA TODAY.
WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FOR
SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL BE CLOSER TO BETTER MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO WILL KEEP LOW
POPS ACROSS THIS AREA.

RAISED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA ON
FRIDAY AS GFS/EC ARE SIMILAR IN TRACKING REMNANTS NEAR TEXAS/OK
PANHANDLES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS DIVERGE ON HOW
QUICKLY THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE EC IS SLOWER WHILE THE GFS IN MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CHANCES
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES THIS WEEKEND...MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
STORMS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  89  69  86 /  10  20  10  10
HOBART OK         69  89  68  86 /  10  10  10  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  71  90  69  88 /  20  30  10  40
GAGE OK           65  90  66  86 /  10  10  10  40
PONCA CITY OK     67  89  69  87 /  20  20  10  10
DURANT OK         70  88  69  86 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 171159
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
659 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...LIGHT FOG PERHAPS LOW CLOUDS MAY IMPACT
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN IMPACT
FROM ODILE WILL BE MIDDAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

MEANWHILE...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF TWO AREAS. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FORM THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS AND MISSOURI WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED
AS FAR SOUTH AS GRANT/KAY COUNTIES. BETTER WAA AND FLOW SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA TODAY.
WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FOR
SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL BE CLOSER TO BETTER MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO WILL KEEP LOW
POPS ACROSS THIS AREA.

RAISED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA ON
FRIDAY AS GFS/EC ARE SIMILAR IN TRACKING REMNANTS NEAR TEXAS/OK
PANHANDLES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS DIVERGE ON HOW
QUICKLY THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE EC IS SLOWER WHILE THE GFS IN MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CHANCES
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES THIS WEEKEND...MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
STORMS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  89  69  86 /  10  20  10  10
HOBART OK         69  89  68  86 /  10  10  10  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  71  90  69  88 /  20  30  10  40
GAGE OK           65  90  66  86 /  10  10  10  40
PONCA CITY OK     67  89  69  87 /  20  20  10  10
DURANT OK         70  88  69  86 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 171159
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
659 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...LIGHT FOG PERHAPS LOW CLOUDS MAY IMPACT
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN IMPACT
FROM ODILE WILL BE MIDDAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

MEANWHILE...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF TWO AREAS. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FORM THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS AND MISSOURI WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED
AS FAR SOUTH AS GRANT/KAY COUNTIES. BETTER WAA AND FLOW SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA TODAY.
WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FOR
SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL BE CLOSER TO BETTER MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO WILL KEEP LOW
POPS ACROSS THIS AREA.

RAISED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA ON
FRIDAY AS GFS/EC ARE SIMILAR IN TRACKING REMNANTS NEAR TEXAS/OK
PANHANDLES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS DIVERGE ON HOW
QUICKLY THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE EC IS SLOWER WHILE THE GFS IN MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CHANCES
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES THIS WEEKEND...MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
STORMS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  89  69  86 /  10  20  10  10
HOBART OK         69  89  68  86 /  10  10  10  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  71  90  69  88 /  20  30  10  40
GAGE OK           65  90  66  86 /  10  10  10  40
PONCA CITY OK     67  89  69  87 /  20  20  10  10
DURANT OK         70  88  69  86 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 171159
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
659 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...LIGHT FOG PERHAPS LOW CLOUDS MAY IMPACT
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN IMPACT
FROM ODILE WILL BE MIDDAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

MEANWHILE...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF TWO AREAS. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FORM THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS AND MISSOURI WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED
AS FAR SOUTH AS GRANT/KAY COUNTIES. BETTER WAA AND FLOW SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA TODAY.
WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FOR
SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL BE CLOSER TO BETTER MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO WILL KEEP LOW
POPS ACROSS THIS AREA.

RAISED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA ON
FRIDAY AS GFS/EC ARE SIMILAR IN TRACKING REMNANTS NEAR TEXAS/OK
PANHANDLES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS DIVERGE ON HOW
QUICKLY THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE EC IS SLOWER WHILE THE GFS IN MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CHANCES
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES THIS WEEKEND...MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
STORMS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  89  69  86 /  10  20  10  10
HOBART OK         69  89  68  86 /  10  10  10  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  71  90  69  88 /  20  30  10  40
GAGE OK           65  90  66  86 /  10  10  10  40
PONCA CITY OK     67  89  69  87 /  20  20  10  10
DURANT OK         70  88  69  86 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KTSA 171140
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
640 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY AT ALL SITES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT RESULTING IN
MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BLOSSOMED OVER EASTERN KANSAS WITHIN THE PAST
HOUR OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO A DISTURBANCE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
THE APPROACH OF A STRONG UPPER JET. MOVEMENT OF THE CURRENT
ACTIVITY CONFIRMS THE LOCAL WRF AND HRRR SOLUTIONS THAT KEEP THE
BULK OF THIS NORTH OF THE OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS BORDERS UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL POPS IN FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH HIGHER
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. ONGOING PATCHY BUT
OCCASIONALLY DENSE FOG IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD BE GONE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. PER SURFACE OBS...VISIBILITIES HAVE VARIED
WILDLY THIS MORNING AT ANY ONE LOCATION WHICH COULD MAKE FOR A
DIFFICULT COMMUTE ESPECIALLY IN THE BENTON AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL IN
MOST AREAS...WITH SOME SPOTS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 LIKELY
TO TOUCH 90 DEGREES.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND AFFECT A BIGGER
SECTION OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT AND
PERHAPS INTO TOMORROW AS ANOTHER SEGMENT OF THE UPPER JET
STRENGTHENS TO OUR EAST AND A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH MISSOURI
AND ARKANSAS. A BRIEF DRYING TREND STILL APPEARS TO BE IN THE
OFFING FOR FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS UPPER RIDGING QUICKLY
BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS.

THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...HOWEVER...AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE MOVING INTO THE REGION...A HEAVY RAIN EVENT CONTINUES TO
LOOK LIKELY SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF...MOST MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL PLACE THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS TO OUR
NORTH...WHILE STILL ALLOWING FOR SOME BENEFICIAL RAIN AMOUNTS
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 18Z
SATURDAY AND 06Z SUNDAY. THE RAIN SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A DRY BUT COOL BEGINNING TO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05






000
FXUS64 KTSA 171140
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
640 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY AT ALL SITES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT RESULTING IN
MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BLOSSOMED OVER EASTERN KANSAS WITHIN THE PAST
HOUR OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO A DISTURBANCE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
THE APPROACH OF A STRONG UPPER JET. MOVEMENT OF THE CURRENT
ACTIVITY CONFIRMS THE LOCAL WRF AND HRRR SOLUTIONS THAT KEEP THE
BULK OF THIS NORTH OF THE OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS BORDERS UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL POPS IN FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH HIGHER
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. ONGOING PATCHY BUT
OCCASIONALLY DENSE FOG IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD BE GONE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. PER SURFACE OBS...VISIBILITIES HAVE VARIED
WILDLY THIS MORNING AT ANY ONE LOCATION WHICH COULD MAKE FOR A
DIFFICULT COMMUTE ESPECIALLY IN THE BENTON AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL IN
MOST AREAS...WITH SOME SPOTS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 LIKELY
TO TOUCH 90 DEGREES.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND AFFECT A BIGGER
SECTION OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT AND
PERHAPS INTO TOMORROW AS ANOTHER SEGMENT OF THE UPPER JET
STRENGTHENS TO OUR EAST AND A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH MISSOURI
AND ARKANSAS. A BRIEF DRYING TREND STILL APPEARS TO BE IN THE
OFFING FOR FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS UPPER RIDGING QUICKLY
BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS.

THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...HOWEVER...AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE MOVING INTO THE REGION...A HEAVY RAIN EVENT CONTINUES TO
LOOK LIKELY SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF...MOST MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL PLACE THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS TO OUR
NORTH...WHILE STILL ALLOWING FOR SOME BENEFICIAL RAIN AMOUNTS
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 18Z
SATURDAY AND 06Z SUNDAY. THE RAIN SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A DRY BUT COOL BEGINNING TO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05





000
FXUS64 KOUN 170855
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
355 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN IMPACT
FROM ODILE WILL BE MIDDAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

MEANWHILE...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF TWO AREAS. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FORM THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS AND MISSOURI WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED
AS FAR SOUTH AS GRANT/KAY COUNTIES. BETTER WAA AND FLOW SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA TODAY.
WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FOR
SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL BE CLOSER TO BETTER MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO WILL KEEP LOW
POPS ACROSS THIS AREA.

RAISED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA ON
FRIDAY AS GFS/EC ARE SIMILAR IN TRACKING REMNANTS NEAR TEXAS/OK
PANHANDLES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS DIVERGE ON HOW
QUICKLY THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE EC IS SLOWER WHILE THE GFS IN MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CHANCES
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES THIS WEEKEND...MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
STORMS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  69  89  69 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         90  69  89  69 /  10  10  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  90  71  90  70 /  20  20  30  10
GAGE OK           91  65  90  67 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     89  67  89  69 /  10  20  20  10
DURANT OK         89  70  88  68 /  20  20  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 170855
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
355 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN IMPACT
FROM ODILE WILL BE MIDDAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

MEANWHILE...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF TWO AREAS. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FORM THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS AND MISSOURI WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED
AS FAR SOUTH AS GRANT/KAY COUNTIES. BETTER WAA AND FLOW SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA TODAY.
WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FOR
SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL BE CLOSER TO BETTER MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO WILL KEEP LOW
POPS ACROSS THIS AREA.

RAISED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA ON
FRIDAY AS GFS/EC ARE SIMILAR IN TRACKING REMNANTS NEAR TEXAS/OK
PANHANDLES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS DIVERGE ON HOW
QUICKLY THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE EC IS SLOWER WHILE THE GFS IN MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CHANCES
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES THIS WEEKEND...MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
STORMS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  69  89  69 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         90  69  89  69 /  10  10  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  90  71  90  70 /  20  20  30  10
GAGE OK           91  65  90  67 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     89  67  89  69 /  10  20  20  10
DURANT OK         89  70  88  68 /  20  20  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 170833
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
333 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BLOSSOMED OVER EASTERN KANSAS WITHIN THE PAST
HOUR OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO A DISTURBANCE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
THE APPROACH OF A STRONG UPPER JET. MOVEMENT OF THE CURRENT
ACTIVITY CONFIRMS THE LOCAL WRF AND HRRR SOLUTIONS THAT KEEP THE
BULK OF THIS NORTH OF THE OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS BORDERS UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL POPS IN FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH HIGHER
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. ONGOING PATCHY BUT
OCCASIONALLY DENSE FOG IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD BE GONE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. PER SURFACE OBS...VISIBILITIES HAVE VARIED
WILDLY THIS MORNING AT ANY ONE LOCATION WHICH COULD MAKE FOR A
DIFFICULT COMMUTE ESPECIALLY IN THE BENTON AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL IN
MOST AREAS...WITH SOME SPOTS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 LIKELY
TO TOUCH 90 DEGREES.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND AFFECT A BIGGER
SECTION OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT AND
PERHAPS INTO TOMORROW AS ANOTHER SEGMENT OF THE UPPER JET
STRENGTHENS TO OUR EAST AND A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH MISSOURI
AND ARKANSAS. A BRIEF DRYING TREND STILL APPEARS TO BE IN THE
OFFING FOR FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS UPPER RIDGING QUICKLY
BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS.

THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...HOWEVER...AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE MOVING INTO THE REGION...A HEAVY RAIN EVENT CONTINUES TO
LOOK LIKELY SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF...MOST MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL PLACE THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS TO OUR
NORTH...WHILE STILL ALLOWING FOR SOME BENEFICIAL RAIN AMOUNTS
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 18Z
SATURDAY AND 06Z SUNDAY. THE RAIN SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A DRY BUT COOL BEGINNING TO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  69  88  69 /  10  30  30  10
FSM   86  68  85  67 /  20  40  40  10
MLC   88  71  87  68 /  10  20  30  10
BVO   90  67  87  67 /  10  40  30  10
FYV   83  65  83  64 /  30  60  40  10
BYV   82  64  80  64 /  50  60  40  10
MKO   87  68  86  67 /  10  20  40  10
MIO   85  67  84  66 /  50  60  40  10
F10   87  69  87  68 /  10  20  30  10
HHW   88  70  88  68 /  10  20  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....22





000
FXUS64 KTSA 170833
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
333 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BLOSSOMED OVER EASTERN KANSAS WITHIN THE PAST
HOUR OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO A DISTURBANCE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
THE APPROACH OF A STRONG UPPER JET. MOVEMENT OF THE CURRENT
ACTIVITY CONFIRMS THE LOCAL WRF AND HRRR SOLUTIONS THAT KEEP THE
BULK OF THIS NORTH OF THE OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS BORDERS UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL POPS IN FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH HIGHER
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. ONGOING PATCHY BUT
OCCASIONALLY DENSE FOG IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD BE GONE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. PER SURFACE OBS...VISIBILITIES HAVE VARIED
WILDLY THIS MORNING AT ANY ONE LOCATION WHICH COULD MAKE FOR A
DIFFICULT COMMUTE ESPECIALLY IN THE BENTON AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL IN
MOST AREAS...WITH SOME SPOTS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 LIKELY
TO TOUCH 90 DEGREES.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND AFFECT A BIGGER
SECTION OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT AND
PERHAPS INTO TOMORROW AS ANOTHER SEGMENT OF THE UPPER JET
STRENGTHENS TO OUR EAST AND A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH MISSOURI
AND ARKANSAS. A BRIEF DRYING TREND STILL APPEARS TO BE IN THE
OFFING FOR FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS UPPER RIDGING QUICKLY
BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS.

THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...HOWEVER...AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE MOVING INTO THE REGION...A HEAVY RAIN EVENT CONTINUES TO
LOOK LIKELY SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF...MOST MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL PLACE THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS TO OUR
NORTH...WHILE STILL ALLOWING FOR SOME BENEFICIAL RAIN AMOUNTS
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 18Z
SATURDAY AND 06Z SUNDAY. THE RAIN SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A DRY BUT COOL BEGINNING TO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  69  88  69 /  10  30  30  10
FSM   86  68  85  67 /  20  40  40  10
MLC   88  71  87  68 /  10  20  30  10
BVO   90  67  87  67 /  10  40  30  10
FYV   83  65  83  64 /  30  60  40  10
BYV   82  64  80  64 /  50  60  40  10
MKO   87  68  86  67 /  10  20  40  10
MIO   85  67  84  66 /  50  60  40  10
F10   87  69  87  68 /  10  20  30  10
HHW   88  70  88  68 /  10  20  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 170443
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1143 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
LOW CLOUDS/DENSE FOG STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
LATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THIS AREA. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WED MORNING
WITH LOW CLOUDS/FOG LIFTING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
WED AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO
IMPACT FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 800 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE OCCURRING EARLY TODAY
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS HAVE DISSIPATED. THEREFORE...I
HAVE REMOVED THE EVENING POPS FOR THAT AREA. WILL CONTINUE LOW
POPS FOR LATE TONIGHT ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS THE FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH. HAVE ALSO
MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS FOR
TONIGHT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12






000
FXUS64 KOUN 170435
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1135 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SOME
PATCHY MVFR FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE 10Z TO 14Z TIMEFRAME AS WINDS
GO LIGHT TO CALM. FROM 15Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WINDS SHOULD
VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST...BECOMING GUSTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  89  69  89 /  10  10  10  20
HOBART OK         68  90  69  89 /  20  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  90  71  90 /  20  20  20  30
GAGE OK           65  91  65  90 /  10   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     66  89  67  89 /  10  10  20  20
DURANT OK         69  89  70  88 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

02/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 170435
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1135 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SOME
PATCHY MVFR FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE 10Z TO 14Z TIMEFRAME AS WINDS
GO LIGHT TO CALM. FROM 15Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WINDS SHOULD
VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST...BECOMING GUSTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  89  69  89 /  10  10  10  20
HOBART OK         68  90  69  89 /  20  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  90  71  90 /  20  20  20  30
GAGE OK           65  91  65  90 /  10   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     66  89  67  89 /  10  10  20  20
DURANT OK         69  89  70  88 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

02/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 170435
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1135 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SOME
PATCHY MVFR FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE 10Z TO 14Z TIMEFRAME AS WINDS
GO LIGHT TO CALM. FROM 15Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WINDS SHOULD
VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST...BECOMING GUSTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  89  69  89 /  10  10  10  20
HOBART OK         68  90  69  89 /  20  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  90  71  90 /  20  20  20  30
GAGE OK           65  91  65  90 /  10   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     66  89  67  89 /  10  10  20  20
DURANT OK         69  89  70  88 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

02/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 170435
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1135 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SOME
PATCHY MVFR FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE 10Z TO 14Z TIMEFRAME AS WINDS
GO LIGHT TO CALM. FROM 15Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WINDS SHOULD
VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST...BECOMING GUSTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  89  69  89 /  10  10  10  20
HOBART OK         68  90  69  89 /  20  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  90  71  90 /  20  20  20  30
GAGE OK           65  91  65  90 /  10   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     66  89  67  89 /  10  10  20  20
DURANT OK         69  89  70  88 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

02/84




000
FXUS64 KTSA 170100
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
800 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE OCCURRING EARLY TODAY
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS HAVE DISSIPATED. THEREFORE...I
HAVE REMOVED THE EVENING POPS FOR THAT AREA. WILL CONTINUE LOW
POPS FOR LATE TONIGHT ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS THE FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH. HAVE ALSO
MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS FOR
TONIGHT.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10







000
FXUS64 KTSA 170100
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
800 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE OCCURRING EARLY TODAY
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS HAVE DISSIPATED. THEREFORE...I
HAVE REMOVED THE EVENING POPS FOR THAT AREA. WILL CONTINUE LOW
POPS FOR LATE TONIGHT ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS THE FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH. HAVE ALSO
MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS FOR
TONIGHT.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10







000
FXUS64 KTSA 170100
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
800 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE OCCURRING EARLY TODAY
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS HAVE DISSIPATED. THEREFORE...I
HAVE REMOVED THE EVENING POPS FOR THAT AREA. WILL CONTINUE LOW
POPS FOR LATE TONIGHT ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS THE FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH. HAVE ALSO
MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS FOR
TONIGHT.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10







000
FXUS64 KTSA 170100
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
800 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE OCCURRING EARLY TODAY
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS HAVE DISSIPATED. THEREFORE...I
HAVE REMOVED THE EVENING POPS FOR THAT AREA. WILL CONTINUE LOW
POPS FOR LATE TONIGHT ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS THE FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH. HAVE ALSO
MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS FOR
TONIGHT.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10







000
FXUS64 KTSA 170002
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
702 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  DO EXPECT LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO REDEVELOP
OVER THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS.
MAIN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR TO BE JUST OUTSIDE THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN VICINITY OF STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AND PRIMARILY FROM WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS TO POINTS FURTHER EAST. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENS ATOP THE RETREATING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE BULK OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

MORNING CONVECTION MAY GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD INTO FAR NE
OK / WESTERN AR AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTERACT
WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS ON THE PERIPHERY OF ANY REMAINING MORNING
CLOUDINESS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ALONG
WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT STRONG MULTICELL TO
SUPERCELL STORM MODES. THE INITIAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING W/ A CONTINUED RISK OF AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER. A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL AFTER SUNSET HOWEVER THE CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE AS THE
WEAK WAVE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES ARRIVES
ON FRIDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL INTERACT WITH TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM DECAYING ODILE...THOUGH THE EXTENDED MODEL DATA
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE FOR A CONSISTENT SOLUTION IN HOW THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS HANDLED. THE LATEST DATA HAVE WEAKER MID LEVEL FLOW
WHICH ALLOWS THE TROPICAL INFLUENCE TO LINGER NEAR THE REGION.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO A POINT OF FOCUS IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 170002
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
702 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  DO EXPECT LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO REDEVELOP
OVER THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS.
MAIN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR TO BE JUST OUTSIDE THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN VICINITY OF STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AND PRIMARILY FROM WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS TO POINTS FURTHER EAST. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENS ATOP THE RETREATING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE BULK OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

MORNING CONVECTION MAY GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD INTO FAR NE
OK / WESTERN AR AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTERACT
WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS ON THE PERIPHERY OF ANY REMAINING MORNING
CLOUDINESS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ALONG
WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT STRONG MULTICELL TO
SUPERCELL STORM MODES. THE INITIAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING W/ A CONTINUED RISK OF AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER. A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL AFTER SUNSET HOWEVER THE CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE AS THE
WEAK WAVE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES ARRIVES
ON FRIDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL INTERACT WITH TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM DECAYING ODILE...THOUGH THE EXTENDED MODEL DATA
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE FOR A CONSISTENT SOLUTION IN HOW THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS HANDLED. THE LATEST DATA HAVE WEAKER MID LEVEL FLOW
WHICH ALLOWS THE TROPICAL INFLUENCE TO LINGER NEAR THE REGION.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO A POINT OF FOCUS IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12







000
FXUS64 KOUN 162329
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
629 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR BR MAY DEVELOP IN THE 10Z TO 15Z
TIMEFRAME...AS WINDS GO LIGHT TO CALM. SOME BKN MVFR CIGS MAY ALSO
REDEVELOP AT KPNC...NORTH OF THE LINGERING FRONT. WINDS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY SHIFT TO A MORE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...BECOMING GUSTY BY 15Z TO 16Z
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND VARIOUS WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL RESULT IN CONTINUING LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WARM FOR MID-
SEPTEMBER.

THE NEXT MAJOR EVENT APPEARS TO BE A STORM SYSTEM DUE TO ARRIVE
THIS WEEKEND. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FURTHER...POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER HURRICANE ODILE...AND THAT THE STORM SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN ITS MAIN EFFECTS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE...HOWEVER...ON THE EXIT STRATEGY OF THE
STORM. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE SYSTEM OVER OKLAHOMA LONG ENOUGH TO
GENERATE HUGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL...WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER TO
ADVANCE THE STORM...RESULTING IN LESS EXTREME RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
OUR FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE GFS...AND WE CERTAINLY HOPE THIS IS
THE MORE CORRECT OUTCOME...SINCE THE ECMWF SCENARIO WOULD LIKELY
RESULT IN SERIOUS FLOODING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  89  69  89 /  10  10  10  20
HOBART OK         68  90  69  89 /  20  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  90  71  90 /  20  20  20  30
GAGE OK           65  91  65  90 /  10   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     66  89  67  89 /  10  10  20  20
DURANT OK         69  89  70  88 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

02/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 162107
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
407 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND VARIOUS WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL RESULT IN CONTINUING LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WARM FOR MID-
SEPTEMBER.

THE NEXT MAJOR EVENT APPEARS TO BE A STORM SYSTEM DUE TO ARRIVE
THIS WEEKEND. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FURTHER...POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER HURRICANE ODILE...AND THAT THE STORM SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN ITS MAIN EFFECTS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE...HOWEVER...ON THE EXIT STRATEGY OF THE
STORM. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE SYSTEM OVER OKLAHOMA LONG ENOUGH TO
GENERATE HUGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL...WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER TO
ADVANCE THE STORM...RESULTING IN LESS EXTREME RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
OUR FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE GFS...AND WE CERTAINLY HOPE THIS IS
THE MORE CORRECT OUTCOME...SINCE THE ECMWF SCENARIO WOULD LIKELY
RESULT IN SERIOUS FLOODING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  89  69  89 /  10  10  10  20
HOBART OK         68  90  69  89 /  20  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  90  71  90 /  20  20  20  30
GAGE OK           65  91  65  90 /  10   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     66  89  67  89 /  10  10  20  20
DURANT OK         69  89  70  88 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 162107
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
407 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND VARIOUS WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL RESULT IN CONTINUING LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WARM FOR MID-
SEPTEMBER.

THE NEXT MAJOR EVENT APPEARS TO BE A STORM SYSTEM DUE TO ARRIVE
THIS WEEKEND. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FURTHER...POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER HURRICANE ODILE...AND THAT THE STORM SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN ITS MAIN EFFECTS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE...HOWEVER...ON THE EXIT STRATEGY OF THE
STORM. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE SYSTEM OVER OKLAHOMA LONG ENOUGH TO
GENERATE HUGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL...WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER TO
ADVANCE THE STORM...RESULTING IN LESS EXTREME RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
OUR FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE GFS...AND WE CERTAINLY HOPE THIS IS
THE MORE CORRECT OUTCOME...SINCE THE ECMWF SCENARIO WOULD LIKELY
RESULT IN SERIOUS FLOODING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  89  69  89 /  10  10  10  20
HOBART OK         68  90  69  89 /  20  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  90  71  90 /  20  20  20  30
GAGE OK           65  91  65  90 /  10   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     66  89  67  89 /  10  10  20  20
DURANT OK         69  89  70  88 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23



000
FXUS64 KTSA 162050
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
350 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN VICINITY OF STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AND PRIMARILY FROM WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS TO POINTS FURTHER EAST. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENS ATOP THE RETREATING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE BULK OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

MORNING CONVECTION MAY GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD INTO FAR NE
OK / WESTERN AR AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTERACT
WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS ON THE PERIPHERY OF ANY REMAINING MORNING
CLOUDINESS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ALONG
WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT STRONG MULTICELL TO
SUPERCELL STORM MODES. THE INITIAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING W/ A CONTINUED RISK OF AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER. A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL AFTER SUNSET HOWEVER THE CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE AS THE
WEAK WAVE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES ARRIVES
ON FRIDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL INTERACT WITH TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM DECAYING ODILE...THOUGH THE EXTENDED MODEL DATA
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE FOR A CONSISTENT SOLUTION IN HOW THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS HANDLED. THE LATEST DATA HAVE WEAKER MID LEVEL FLOW
WHICH ALLOWS THE TROPICAL INFLUENCE TO LINGER NEAR THE REGION.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO A POINT OF FOCUS IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  92  69  86 /  10  10  20  30
FSM   67  89  69  85 /  20  20  30  40
MLC   68  89  70  86 /  10  10  10  30
BVO   65  92  67  85 /  10  10  30  30
FYV   64  85  65  81 /  10  40  50  40
BYV   63  84  63  78 /  20  60  50  40
MKO   67  89  69  84 /  10  10  20  30
MIO   65  88  66  83 /  20  60  50  40
F10   69  90  69  85 /  10  10  20  30
HHW   69  89  71  86 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07





000
FXUS64 KTSA 162050
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
350 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN VICINITY OF STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AND PRIMARILY FROM WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS TO POINTS FURTHER EAST. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENS ATOP THE RETREATING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE BULK OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

MORNING CONVECTION MAY GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD INTO FAR NE
OK / WESTERN AR AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTERACT
WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS ON THE PERIPHERY OF ANY REMAINING MORNING
CLOUDINESS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ALONG
WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT STRONG MULTICELL TO
SUPERCELL STORM MODES. THE INITIAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING W/ A CONTINUED RISK OF AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER. A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL AFTER SUNSET HOWEVER THE CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE AS THE
WEAK WAVE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES ARRIVES
ON FRIDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL INTERACT WITH TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM DECAYING ODILE...THOUGH THE EXTENDED MODEL DATA
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE FOR A CONSISTENT SOLUTION IN HOW THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS HANDLED. THE LATEST DATA HAVE WEAKER MID LEVEL FLOW
WHICH ALLOWS THE TROPICAL INFLUENCE TO LINGER NEAR THE REGION.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO A POINT OF FOCUS IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  92  69  86 /  10  10  20  30
FSM   67  89  69  85 /  20  20  30  40
MLC   68  89  70  86 /  10  10  10  30
BVO   65  92  67  85 /  10  10  30  30
FYV   64  85  65  81 /  10  40  50  40
BYV   63  84  63  78 /  20  60  50  40
MKO   67  89  69  84 /  10  10  20  30
MIO   65  88  66  83 /  20  60  50  40
F10   69  90  69  85 /  10  10  20  30
HHW   69  89  71  86 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 161827
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
127 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT REMAINED OVER
THE REGION. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...LOW CEILINGS CONTINUED
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA HAS BEEN SLOW TO LIFT AND HAS KEPT TEMPS ON THE COOL
SIDE...WHILE TEMPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO
WARM INTO THE MID 80S. WILL SEND AN EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE TO
ADJUST AFTERNOON TEMPS SOME ACROSS THE CWA...TWEAK POP/WX GRIDS
AND CLEAN UP ANY MORNING WORDING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS
ON TRACK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  89  70  90 /  20  20  20  20
FSM   67  86  68  85 /  20  40  30  20
MLC   68  88  69  89 /  10  20  30  20
BVO   64  88  66  89 /  20  20  30  20
FYV   62  81  64  83 /  20  50  40  20
BYV   61  78  63  76 /  20  60  50  20
MKO   67  87  67  87 /  20  30  20  20
MIO   63  83  66  85 /  20  50  50  20
F10   68  88  69  89 /  20  20  20  20
HHW   69  88  69  89 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....07





000
FXUS64 KTSA 161827
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
127 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT REMAINED OVER
THE REGION. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...LOW CEILINGS CONTINUED
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA HAS BEEN SLOW TO LIFT AND HAS KEPT TEMPS ON THE COOL
SIDE...WHILE TEMPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO
WARM INTO THE MID 80S. WILL SEND AN EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE TO
ADJUST AFTERNOON TEMPS SOME ACROSS THE CWA...TWEAK POP/WX GRIDS
AND CLEAN UP ANY MORNING WORDING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS
ON TRACK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  89  70  90 /  20  20  20  20
FSM   67  86  68  85 /  20  40  30  20
MLC   68  88  69  89 /  10  20  30  20
BVO   64  88  66  89 /  20  20  30  20
FYV   62  81  64  83 /  20  50  40  20
BYV   61  78  63  76 /  20  60  50  20
MKO   67  87  67  87 /  20  30  20  20
MIO   63  83  66  85 /  20  50  50  20
F10   68  88  69  89 /  20  20  20  20
HHW   69  88  69  89 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 161746
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1246 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD LIFT BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD.
FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CEILINGS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
POSSIBLE LOWER VIS/CIGS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION
AND WILL CONTINUE THE TREND DOWNWARD FROM PREVIOUS TAF FORECAST.
ALSO OVERNIGHT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE
TONIGHT...THOUGH WITH LIMITED COVERAGE WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF
TAFS FOR NOW. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WINDS LOOK TO SHIFT OUT
OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED VFR MID LEVEL
CLOUDS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAINED COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE THIS MORNING WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS
POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING AT DEWPOINT ANALYSIS THE
FRONT WAS POSITIONS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
DAY IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONT...THOUGH THE ISOLATED CHANCES LOOK
TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY AS A 700-MB THETA E AXIS SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE THETA AXIS...MODEL
SOUNDINGS TRY TO BREAK UP THE CLOUD COVER SOME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST POP/WX/SKY GRIDS BASED
ON THE MENTIONED ABOVE AND TO ADD MINOR TWEAKS TO WINDS/TEMP
GRIDS.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BECOME A LITTLE BIT
BETTER ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
AS A STRENGTHENING LLJ AND WAA INTERACTS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIFTING NORTHWARD AND A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS
WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  89  70  90 /  20  20  20  20
FSM   67  86  68  85 /  20  40  30  20
MLC   68  88  69  89 /  10  20  30  20
BVO   64  88  66  89 /  20  20  30  20
FYV   62  81  64  83 /  20  50  40  20
BYV   61  78  63  76 /  20  60  50  20
MKO   67  87  67  87 /  20  30  20  20
MIO   63  83  66  85 /  20  50  50  20
F10   68  88  69  89 /  20  20  20  20
HHW   69  88  69  89 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20






000
FXUS64 KTSA 161746
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1246 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD LIFT BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD.
FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CEILINGS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
POSSIBLE LOWER VIS/CIGS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION
AND WILL CONTINUE THE TREND DOWNWARD FROM PREVIOUS TAF FORECAST.
ALSO OVERNIGHT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE
TONIGHT...THOUGH WITH LIMITED COVERAGE WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF
TAFS FOR NOW. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WINDS LOOK TO SHIFT OUT
OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED VFR MID LEVEL
CLOUDS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAINED COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE THIS MORNING WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS
POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING AT DEWPOINT ANALYSIS THE
FRONT WAS POSITIONS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
DAY IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONT...THOUGH THE ISOLATED CHANCES LOOK
TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY AS A 700-MB THETA E AXIS SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE THETA AXIS...MODEL
SOUNDINGS TRY TO BREAK UP THE CLOUD COVER SOME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST POP/WX/SKY GRIDS BASED
ON THE MENTIONED ABOVE AND TO ADD MINOR TWEAKS TO WINDS/TEMP
GRIDS.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BECOME A LITTLE BIT
BETTER ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
AS A STRENGTHENING LLJ AND WAA INTERACTS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIFTING NORTHWARD AND A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS
WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  89  70  90 /  20  20  20  20
FSM   67  86  68  85 /  20  40  30  20
MLC   68  88  69  89 /  10  20  30  20
BVO   64  88  66  89 /  20  20  30  20
FYV   62  81  64  83 /  20  50  40  20
BYV   61  78  63  76 /  20  60  50  20
MKO   67  87  67  87 /  20  30  20  20
MIO   63  83  66  85 /  20  50  50  20
F10   68  88  69  89 /  20  20  20  20
HHW   69  88  69  89 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20






000
FXUS64 KTSA 161746
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1246 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD LIFT BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD.
FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CEILINGS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
POSSIBLE LOWER VIS/CIGS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION
AND WILL CONTINUE THE TREND DOWNWARD FROM PREVIOUS TAF FORECAST.
ALSO OVERNIGHT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE
TONIGHT...THOUGH WITH LIMITED COVERAGE WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF
TAFS FOR NOW. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WINDS LOOK TO SHIFT OUT
OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED VFR MID LEVEL
CLOUDS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAINED COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE THIS MORNING WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS
POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING AT DEWPOINT ANALYSIS THE
FRONT WAS POSITIONS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
DAY IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONT...THOUGH THE ISOLATED CHANCES LOOK
TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY AS A 700-MB THETA E AXIS SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE THETA AXIS...MODEL
SOUNDINGS TRY TO BREAK UP THE CLOUD COVER SOME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST POP/WX/SKY GRIDS BASED
ON THE MENTIONED ABOVE AND TO ADD MINOR TWEAKS TO WINDS/TEMP
GRIDS.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BECOME A LITTLE BIT
BETTER ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
AS A STRENGTHENING LLJ AND WAA INTERACTS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIFTING NORTHWARD AND A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS
WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  89  70  90 /  20  20  20  20
FSM   67  86  68  85 /  20  40  30  20
MLC   68  88  69  89 /  10  20  30  20
BVO   64  88  66  89 /  20  20  30  20
FYV   62  81  64  83 /  20  50  40  20
BYV   61  78  63  76 /  20  60  50  20
MKO   67  87  67  87 /  20  30  20  20
MIO   63  83  66  85 /  20  50  50  20
F10   68  88  69  89 /  20  20  20  20
HHW   69  88  69  89 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20






000
FXUS64 KTSA 161746
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1246 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD LIFT BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD.
FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CEILINGS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
POSSIBLE LOWER VIS/CIGS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION
AND WILL CONTINUE THE TREND DOWNWARD FROM PREVIOUS TAF FORECAST.
ALSO OVERNIGHT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE
TONIGHT...THOUGH WITH LIMITED COVERAGE WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF
TAFS FOR NOW. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WINDS LOOK TO SHIFT OUT
OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED VFR MID LEVEL
CLOUDS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAINED COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE THIS MORNING WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS
POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING AT DEWPOINT ANALYSIS THE
FRONT WAS POSITIONS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
DAY IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONT...THOUGH THE ISOLATED CHANCES LOOK
TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY AS A 700-MB THETA E AXIS SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE THETA AXIS...MODEL
SOUNDINGS TRY TO BREAK UP THE CLOUD COVER SOME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST POP/WX/SKY GRIDS BASED
ON THE MENTIONED ABOVE AND TO ADD MINOR TWEAKS TO WINDS/TEMP
GRIDS.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BECOME A LITTLE BIT
BETTER ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
AS A STRENGTHENING LLJ AND WAA INTERACTS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIFTING NORTHWARD AND A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS
WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  89  70  90 /  20  20  20  20
FSM   67  86  68  85 /  20  40  30  20
MLC   68  88  69  89 /  10  20  30  20
BVO   64  88  66  89 /  20  20  30  20
FYV   62  81  64  83 /  20  50  40  20
BYV   61  78  63  76 /  20  60  50  20
MKO   67  87  67  87 /  20  30  20  20
MIO   63  83  66  85 /  20  50  50  20
F10   68  88  69  89 /  20  20  20  20
HHW   69  88  69  89 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20






000
FXUS64 KOUN 161726
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
THE LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE N 1/2 OF OK WILL DIMINISH
FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD LEAVE THE ENTIRE
REGION IN VFR CONDITIONS BY 2200Z. A NEW LAYER AROUND 5000 FT IS
LIKELY TO FORM AND AFFECT MOST TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE LOWER LAYERS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO THIN OUT
OVERNIGHT...AND SOME BR MAY OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE FROM I-44/I-35
EAST. EXPECT INCREASING S WINDS TOMORROW WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

UPDATE...
REMOVED MORNING FOG/RAIN CHANCES. MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES.

DISCUSSION...
MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY.

FOG OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA HAS LIFTED...SO
REMOVED MORNING FOG MENTION.

A WEAK FRONT HAD STALLED NEAR A HOBART TO SEMINOLE LINE. NORTH OF
THIS FRONT...LOW CLOUDS WERE IN PLACE AS OF 10 AM...AND MAY BE
SLOW TO CLEAR...ESPECIALLY NEAR PONCA CITY. THUS...LOWERED HIGHS A
BIT NEAR THIS LOCATION. SOUTH OF THE WEAK FRONT...MORE SUN HAS
ALLOWED FOR MORE HEATING...THUS RAISED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES.

A FEW PULSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. GENERALLY KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCES IN THESE
LOCATIONS AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE SPARSE WITHOUT MID/UPPER FORCING.
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH ANY STORM WOULD MOVE VERY SLOWLY
WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER AN INCH IN A SMALL
AREA LESS THAN AN HOUR.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SURFACE OBS INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS COVER ROUGHLY
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION IS AREAS OF FOG...SOME
DENSE...OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE LESS CLOUD
COVER...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH HUMIDITY ARE.

LOWER CLOUDS HAVE GENERALLY FORMED BEHIND A WEAK FRONT THAT HAS
NEARLY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. SUN AND A
GRADUAL SHIFT BACK TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD IMPROVE MVFR
CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME LIGHT FOG AND PERHAPS MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND AND NEAR OUN/OKC/CSM.

SOUTH WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW
MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...BEFORE
STALLING. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WHERE BETTER
MID- LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY FORM IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS DURING
PEAK HEATING.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA WITHIN AN AREA OF WAA.
STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP SOUTHWARD.

BY LATE WEEK...THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...IN ADVANCE OF A WEST COAST TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE FRONTAL
TIMING...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOWER THAN SOME GUIDANCE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK APPEAR DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  88  68  89  69 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         92  68  90  69 /  20  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  89  70  90  71 /  20  20  20  20
GAGE OK           85  65  91  65 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     78  66  89  67 /  10  20  20  30
DURANT OK         88  69  89  70 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 161726
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
THE LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE N 1/2 OF OK WILL DIMINISH
FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD LEAVE THE ENTIRE
REGION IN VFR CONDITIONS BY 2200Z. A NEW LAYER AROUND 5000 FT IS
LIKELY TO FORM AND AFFECT MOST TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE LOWER LAYERS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO THIN OUT
OVERNIGHT...AND SOME BR MAY OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE FROM I-44/I-35
EAST. EXPECT INCREASING S WINDS TOMORROW WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

UPDATE...
REMOVED MORNING FOG/RAIN CHANCES. MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES.

DISCUSSION...
MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY.

FOG OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA HAS LIFTED...SO
REMOVED MORNING FOG MENTION.

A WEAK FRONT HAD STALLED NEAR A HOBART TO SEMINOLE LINE. NORTH OF
THIS FRONT...LOW CLOUDS WERE IN PLACE AS OF 10 AM...AND MAY BE
SLOW TO CLEAR...ESPECIALLY NEAR PONCA CITY. THUS...LOWERED HIGHS A
BIT NEAR THIS LOCATION. SOUTH OF THE WEAK FRONT...MORE SUN HAS
ALLOWED FOR MORE HEATING...THUS RAISED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES.

A FEW PULSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. GENERALLY KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCES IN THESE
LOCATIONS AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE SPARSE WITHOUT MID/UPPER FORCING.
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH ANY STORM WOULD MOVE VERY SLOWLY
WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER AN INCH IN A SMALL
AREA LESS THAN AN HOUR.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SURFACE OBS INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS COVER ROUGHLY
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION IS AREAS OF FOG...SOME
DENSE...OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE LESS CLOUD
COVER...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH HUMIDITY ARE.

LOWER CLOUDS HAVE GENERALLY FORMED BEHIND A WEAK FRONT THAT HAS
NEARLY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. SUN AND A
GRADUAL SHIFT BACK TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD IMPROVE MVFR
CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME LIGHT FOG AND PERHAPS MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND AND NEAR OUN/OKC/CSM.

SOUTH WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW
MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...BEFORE
STALLING. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WHERE BETTER
MID- LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY FORM IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS DURING
PEAK HEATING.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA WITHIN AN AREA OF WAA.
STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP SOUTHWARD.

BY LATE WEEK...THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...IN ADVANCE OF A WEST COAST TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE FRONTAL
TIMING...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOWER THAN SOME GUIDANCE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK APPEAR DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  88  68  89  69 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         92  68  90  69 /  20  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  89  70  90  71 /  20  20  20  20
GAGE OK           85  65  91  65 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     78  66  89  67 /  10  20  20  30
DURANT OK         88  69  89  70 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 161726
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
THE LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE N 1/2 OF OK WILL DIMINISH
FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD LEAVE THE ENTIRE
REGION IN VFR CONDITIONS BY 2200Z. A NEW LAYER AROUND 5000 FT IS
LIKELY TO FORM AND AFFECT MOST TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE LOWER LAYERS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO THIN OUT
OVERNIGHT...AND SOME BR MAY OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE FROM I-44/I-35
EAST. EXPECT INCREASING S WINDS TOMORROW WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

UPDATE...
REMOVED MORNING FOG/RAIN CHANCES. MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES.

DISCUSSION...
MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY.

FOG OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA HAS LIFTED...SO
REMOVED MORNING FOG MENTION.

A WEAK FRONT HAD STALLED NEAR A HOBART TO SEMINOLE LINE. NORTH OF
THIS FRONT...LOW CLOUDS WERE IN PLACE AS OF 10 AM...AND MAY BE
SLOW TO CLEAR...ESPECIALLY NEAR PONCA CITY. THUS...LOWERED HIGHS A
BIT NEAR THIS LOCATION. SOUTH OF THE WEAK FRONT...MORE SUN HAS
ALLOWED FOR MORE HEATING...THUS RAISED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES.

A FEW PULSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. GENERALLY KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCES IN THESE
LOCATIONS AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE SPARSE WITHOUT MID/UPPER FORCING.
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH ANY STORM WOULD MOVE VERY SLOWLY
WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER AN INCH IN A SMALL
AREA LESS THAN AN HOUR.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SURFACE OBS INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS COVER ROUGHLY
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION IS AREAS OF FOG...SOME
DENSE...OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE LESS CLOUD
COVER...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH HUMIDITY ARE.

LOWER CLOUDS HAVE GENERALLY FORMED BEHIND A WEAK FRONT THAT HAS
NEARLY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. SUN AND A
GRADUAL SHIFT BACK TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD IMPROVE MVFR
CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME LIGHT FOG AND PERHAPS MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND AND NEAR OUN/OKC/CSM.

SOUTH WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW
MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...BEFORE
STALLING. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WHERE BETTER
MID- LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY FORM IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS DURING
PEAK HEATING.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA WITHIN AN AREA OF WAA.
STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP SOUTHWARD.

BY LATE WEEK...THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...IN ADVANCE OF A WEST COAST TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE FRONTAL
TIMING...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOWER THAN SOME GUIDANCE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK APPEAR DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  88  68  89  69 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         92  68  90  69 /  20  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  89  70  90  71 /  20  20  20  20
GAGE OK           85  65  91  65 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     78  66  89  67 /  10  20  20  30
DURANT OK         88  69  89  70 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 161726
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
THE LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE N 1/2 OF OK WILL DIMINISH
FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD LEAVE THE ENTIRE
REGION IN VFR CONDITIONS BY 2200Z. A NEW LAYER AROUND 5000 FT IS
LIKELY TO FORM AND AFFECT MOST TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE LOWER LAYERS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO THIN OUT
OVERNIGHT...AND SOME BR MAY OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE FROM I-44/I-35
EAST. EXPECT INCREASING S WINDS TOMORROW WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

UPDATE...
REMOVED MORNING FOG/RAIN CHANCES. MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES.

DISCUSSION...
MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY.

FOG OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA HAS LIFTED...SO
REMOVED MORNING FOG MENTION.

A WEAK FRONT HAD STALLED NEAR A HOBART TO SEMINOLE LINE. NORTH OF
THIS FRONT...LOW CLOUDS WERE IN PLACE AS OF 10 AM...AND MAY BE
SLOW TO CLEAR...ESPECIALLY NEAR PONCA CITY. THUS...LOWERED HIGHS A
BIT NEAR THIS LOCATION. SOUTH OF THE WEAK FRONT...MORE SUN HAS
ALLOWED FOR MORE HEATING...THUS RAISED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES.

A FEW PULSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. GENERALLY KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCES IN THESE
LOCATIONS AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE SPARSE WITHOUT MID/UPPER FORCING.
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH ANY STORM WOULD MOVE VERY SLOWLY
WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER AN INCH IN A SMALL
AREA LESS THAN AN HOUR.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SURFACE OBS INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS COVER ROUGHLY
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION IS AREAS OF FOG...SOME
DENSE...OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE LESS CLOUD
COVER...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH HUMIDITY ARE.

LOWER CLOUDS HAVE GENERALLY FORMED BEHIND A WEAK FRONT THAT HAS
NEARLY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. SUN AND A
GRADUAL SHIFT BACK TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD IMPROVE MVFR
CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME LIGHT FOG AND PERHAPS MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND AND NEAR OUN/OKC/CSM.

SOUTH WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW
MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...BEFORE
STALLING. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WHERE BETTER
MID- LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY FORM IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS DURING
PEAK HEATING.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA WITHIN AN AREA OF WAA.
STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP SOUTHWARD.

BY LATE WEEK...THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...IN ADVANCE OF A WEST COAST TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE FRONTAL
TIMING...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOWER THAN SOME GUIDANCE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK APPEAR DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  88  68  89  69 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         92  68  90  69 /  20  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  89  70  90  71 /  20  20  20  20
GAGE OK           85  65  91  65 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     78  66  89  67 /  10  20  20  30
DURANT OK         88  69  89  70 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 161725
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
MODIFIED TEMP GRIDS WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG I-40 FOR WHERE
MORNING CLOUDINESS IS STARTING TO BREAK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

UPDATE...
REMOVED MORNING FOG/RAIN CHANCES. MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES.

DISCUSSION...
MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY.

FOG OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA HAS LIFTED...SO
REMOVED MORNING FOG MENTION.

A WEAK FRONT HAD STALLED NEAR A HOBART TO SEMINOLE LINE. NORTH OF
THIS FRONT...LOW CLOUDS WERE IN PLACE AS OF 10 AM...AND MAY BE
SLOW TO CLEAR...ESPECIALLY NEAR PONCA CITY. THUS...LOWERED HIGHS A
BIT NEAR THIS LOCATION. SOUTH OF THE WEAK FRONT...MORE SUN HAS
ALLOWED FOR MORE HEATING...THUS RAISED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES.

A FEW PULSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. GENERALLY KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCES IN THESE
LOCATIONS AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE SPARSE WITHOUT MID/UPPER FORCING.
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH ANY STORM WOULD MOVE VERY SLOWLY
WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER AN INCH IN A SMALL
AREA LESS THAN AN HOUR.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SURFACE OBS INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS COVER ROUGHLY
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION IS AREAS OF FOG...SOME
DENSE...OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE LESS CLOUD
COVER...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH HUMIDITY ARE.

LOWER CLOUDS HAVE GENERALLY FORMED BEHIND A WEAK FRONT THAT HAS
NEARLY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. SUN AND A
GRADUAL SHIFT BACK TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD IMPROVE MVFR
CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME LIGHT FOG AND PERHAPS MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND AND NEAR OUN/OKC/CSM.

SOUTH WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW
MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...BEFORE
STALLING. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WHERE BETTER
MID- LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY FORM IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS DURING
PEAK HEATING.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA WITHIN AN AREA OF WAA.
STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP SOUTHWARD.

BY LATE WEEK...THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...IN ADVANCE OF A WEST COAST TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE FRONTAL
TIMING...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOWER THAN SOME GUIDANCE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK APPEAR DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  88  68  89  69 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         92  68  90  69 /  20  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  89  70  90  71 /  20  20  20  20
GAGE OK           85  65  91  65 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     78  66  89  67 /  10  20  20  30
DURANT OK         88  69  89  70 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

67/23



000
FXUS64 KTSA 161516
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1016 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAINED COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE THIS MORNING WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS
POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING AT DEWPOINT ANALYSIS THE
FRONT WAS POSITIONS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
DAY IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONT...THOUGH THE ISOLATED CHANCES LOOK
TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY AS A 700-MB THETA E AXIS SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE THETA AXIS...MODEL
SOUNDINGS TRY TO BREAK UP THE CLOUD COVER SOME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST POP/WX/SKY GRIDS BASED
ON THE MENTIONED ABOVE AND TO ADD MINOR TWEAKS TO WINDS/TEMP
GRIDS.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BECOME A LITTLE BIT
BETTER ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
AS A STRENGTHENING LLJ AND WAA INTERACTS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIFTING NORTHWARD AND A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS
WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  68  89  70 /  20  20  20  20
FSM   84  67  86  68 /  20  20  40  30
MLC   84  68  88  69 /  20  10  20  30
BVO   79  64  88  66 /  10  20  20  30
FYV   79  62  81  64 /  20  20  50  40
BYV   74  61  78  63 /  20  20  60  50
MKO   82  67  87  67 /  20  20  30  20
MIO   76  63  83  66 /  20  20  50  50
F10   82  68  88  69 /  20  20  20  20
HHW   87  69  88  69 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20






000
FXUS64 KTSA 161516
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1016 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAINED COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE THIS MORNING WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS
POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING AT DEWPOINT ANALYSIS THE
FRONT WAS POSITIONS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
DAY IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONT...THOUGH THE ISOLATED CHANCES LOOK
TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY AS A 700-MB THETA E AXIS SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE THETA AXIS...MODEL
SOUNDINGS TRY TO BREAK UP THE CLOUD COVER SOME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST POP/WX/SKY GRIDS BASED
ON THE MENTIONED ABOVE AND TO ADD MINOR TWEAKS TO WINDS/TEMP
GRIDS.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BECOME A LITTLE BIT
BETTER ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
AS A STRENGTHENING LLJ AND WAA INTERACTS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIFTING NORTHWARD AND A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS
WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  68  89  70 /  20  20  20  20
FSM   84  67  86  68 /  20  20  40  30
MLC   84  68  88  69 /  20  10  20  30
BVO   79  64  88  66 /  10  20  20  30
FYV   79  62  81  64 /  20  20  50  40
BYV   74  61  78  63 /  20  20  60  50
MKO   82  67  87  67 /  20  20  30  20
MIO   76  63  83  66 /  20  20  50  50
F10   82  68  88  69 /  20  20  20  20
HHW   87  69  88  69 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20





000
FXUS64 KOUN 161511 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1011 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
REMOVED MORNING FOG/RAIN CHANCES. MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY.

FOG OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA HAS LIFTED...SO
REMOVED MORNING FOG MENTION.

A WEAK FRONT HAD STALLED NEAR A HOBART TO SEMINOLE LINE. NORTH OF
THIS FRONT...LOW CLOUDS WERE IN PLACE AS OF 10 AM...AND MAY BE
SLOW TO CLEAR...ESPECIALLY NEAR PONCA CITY. THUS...LOWERED HIGHS A
BIT NEAR THIS LOCATION. SOUTH OF THE WEAK FRONT...MORE SUN HAS
ALLOWED FOR MORE HEATING...THUS RAISED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES.

A FEW PULSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. GENERALLY KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCES IN THESE
LOCATIONS AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE SPARSE WITHOUT MID/UPPER FORCING.
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH ANY STORM WOULD MOVE VERY SLOWLY
WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER AN INCH IN A SMALL
AREA LESS THAN AN HOUR.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SURFACE OBS INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS COVER ROUGHLY
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION IS AREAS OF FOG...SOME
DENSE...OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE LESS CLOUD
COVER...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH HUMIDITY ARE.

LOWER CLOUDS HAVE GENERALLY FORMED BEHIND A WEAK FRONT THAT HAS
NEARLY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. SUN AND A
GRADUAL SHIFT BACK TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD IMPROVE MVFR
CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME LIGHT FOG AND PERHAPS MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND AND NEAR OUN/OKC/CSM.

SOUTH WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW
MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...BEFORE
STALLING. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WHERE BETTER
MID- LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY FORM IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS DURING
PEAK HEATING.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA WITHIN AN AREA OF WAA.
STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP SOUTHWARD.

BY LATE WEEK...THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...IN ADVANCE OF A WEST COAST TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE FRONTAL
TIMING...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOWER THAN SOME GUIDANCE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK APPEAR DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  84  68  89  69 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         87  68  90  69 /  20  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  89  70  90  71 /  20  20  20  20
GAGE OK           85  65  91  65 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     78  66  89  67 /  10  20  20  30
DURANT OK         88  69  89  70 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23



000
FXUS64 KOUN 161511 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1011 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
REMOVED MORNING FOG/RAIN CHANCES. MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY.

FOG OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA HAS LIFTED...SO
REMOVED MORNING FOG MENTION.

A WEAK FRONT HAD STALLED NEAR A HOBART TO SEMINOLE LINE. NORTH OF
THIS FRONT...LOW CLOUDS WERE IN PLACE AS OF 10 AM...AND MAY BE
SLOW TO CLEAR...ESPECIALLY NEAR PONCA CITY. THUS...LOWERED HIGHS A
BIT NEAR THIS LOCATION. SOUTH OF THE WEAK FRONT...MORE SUN HAS
ALLOWED FOR MORE HEATING...THUS RAISED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES.

A FEW PULSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. GENERALLY KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCES IN THESE
LOCATIONS AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE SPARSE WITHOUT MID/UPPER FORCING.
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH ANY STORM WOULD MOVE VERY SLOWLY
WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER AN INCH IN A SMALL
AREA LESS THAN AN HOUR.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SURFACE OBS INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS COVER ROUGHLY
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION IS AREAS OF FOG...SOME
DENSE...OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE LESS CLOUD
COVER...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH HUMIDITY ARE.

LOWER CLOUDS HAVE GENERALLY FORMED BEHIND A WEAK FRONT THAT HAS
NEARLY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. SUN AND A
GRADUAL SHIFT BACK TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD IMPROVE MVFR
CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME LIGHT FOG AND PERHAPS MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND AND NEAR OUN/OKC/CSM.

SOUTH WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW
MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...BEFORE
STALLING. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WHERE BETTER
MID- LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY FORM IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS DURING
PEAK HEATING.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA WITHIN AN AREA OF WAA.
STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP SOUTHWARD.

BY LATE WEEK...THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...IN ADVANCE OF A WEST COAST TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE FRONTAL
TIMING...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOWER THAN SOME GUIDANCE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK APPEAR DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  84  68  89  69 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         87  68  90  69 /  20  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  89  70  90  71 /  20  20  20  20
GAGE OK           85  65  91  65 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     78  66  89  67 /  10  20  20  30
DURANT OK         88  69  89  70 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 161148
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
648 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO
VFR IN MOST PLACES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT
FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AT MOST SITES EXCEPT
POSSIBLY KTUL WHERE LIGHT SOUTH WINDS MAY KEEP ANY FOG FROM
FORMING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND VERY
FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAS BECOME STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 44 EARLY THIS MORNING. EVENING SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY
DISSIPATED BY MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
TEASE FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CHANCE OF
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TODAY LOOKS FAIRLY SMALL...BUT WITH THE
BOUNDARY LINGERING...WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44. INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHWARD SOME. A DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY TO FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS TOMORROW. THAT SHOULD LEAD
TO A FAIRLY GOOD TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75
AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES IN ARKANSAS. THE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP SMALL STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE A BRIEF DRY SPELL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS.

AT THIS POINT...THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED AND LIKELY
FAIRLY WET...AS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE BRING A HEALTHY
DOSE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE REGION...AND A STRONG COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF RUNS HAVE SHIFTED
THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS AND
MISSOURI...RATHER THAN AFFECTING EASTERN OKLAHOMA OR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...BUT EVEN IF THIS ENDS UP VERIFYING...WE STILL STAND TO
GET SOME DECENT RAINFALL ALONG THE FRONT WHEN IT PASSES SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW DAY PERIOD OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KTSA 161148
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
648 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO
VFR IN MOST PLACES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT
FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AT MOST SITES EXCEPT
POSSIBLY KTUL WHERE LIGHT SOUTH WINDS MAY KEEP ANY FOG FROM
FORMING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND VERY
FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAS BECOME STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 44 EARLY THIS MORNING. EVENING SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY
DISSIPATED BY MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
TEASE FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CHANCE OF
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TODAY LOOKS FAIRLY SMALL...BUT WITH THE
BOUNDARY LINGERING...WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44. INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHWARD SOME. A DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY TO FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS TOMORROW. THAT SHOULD LEAD
TO A FAIRLY GOOD TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75
AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES IN ARKANSAS. THE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP SMALL STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE A BRIEF DRY SPELL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS.

AT THIS POINT...THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED AND LIKELY
FAIRLY WET...AS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE BRING A HEALTHY
DOSE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE REGION...AND A STRONG COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF RUNS HAVE SHIFTED
THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS AND
MISSOURI...RATHER THAN AFFECTING EASTERN OKLAHOMA OR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...BUT EVEN IF THIS ENDS UP VERIFYING...WE STILL STAND TO
GET SOME DECENT RAINFALL ALONG THE FRONT WHEN IT PASSES SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW DAY PERIOD OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KTSA 161148
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
648 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO
VFR IN MOST PLACES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT
FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AT MOST SITES EXCEPT
POSSIBLY KTUL WHERE LIGHT SOUTH WINDS MAY KEEP ANY FOG FROM
FORMING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND VERY
FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAS BECOME STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 44 EARLY THIS MORNING. EVENING SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY
DISSIPATED BY MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
TEASE FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CHANCE OF
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TODAY LOOKS FAIRLY SMALL...BUT WITH THE
BOUNDARY LINGERING...WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44. INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHWARD SOME. A DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY TO FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS TOMORROW. THAT SHOULD LEAD
TO A FAIRLY GOOD TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75
AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES IN ARKANSAS. THE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP SMALL STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE A BRIEF DRY SPELL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS.

AT THIS POINT...THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED AND LIKELY
FAIRLY WET...AS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE BRING A HEALTHY
DOSE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE REGION...AND A STRONG COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF RUNS HAVE SHIFTED
THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS AND
MISSOURI...RATHER THAN AFFECTING EASTERN OKLAHOMA OR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...BUT EVEN IF THIS ENDS UP VERIFYING...WE STILL STAND TO
GET SOME DECENT RAINFALL ALONG THE FRONT WHEN IT PASSES SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW DAY PERIOD OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KTSA 161148
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
648 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO
VFR IN MOST PLACES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT
FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AT MOST SITES EXCEPT
POSSIBLY KTUL WHERE LIGHT SOUTH WINDS MAY KEEP ANY FOG FROM
FORMING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND VERY
FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAS BECOME STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 44 EARLY THIS MORNING. EVENING SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY
DISSIPATED BY MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
TEASE FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CHANCE OF
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TODAY LOOKS FAIRLY SMALL...BUT WITH THE
BOUNDARY LINGERING...WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44. INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHWARD SOME. A DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY TO FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS TOMORROW. THAT SHOULD LEAD
TO A FAIRLY GOOD TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75
AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES IN ARKANSAS. THE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP SMALL STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE A BRIEF DRY SPELL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS.

AT THIS POINT...THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED AND LIKELY
FAIRLY WET...AS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE BRING A HEALTHY
DOSE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE REGION...AND A STRONG COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF RUNS HAVE SHIFTED
THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS AND
MISSOURI...RATHER THAN AFFECTING EASTERN OKLAHOMA OR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...BUT EVEN IF THIS ENDS UP VERIFYING...WE STILL STAND TO
GET SOME DECENT RAINFALL ALONG THE FRONT WHEN IT PASSES SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW DAY PERIOD OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KOUN 161142
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
642 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SURFACE OBS INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS COVER ROUGHLY
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION IS AREAS OF FOG...SOME
DENSE...OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE LESS CLOUD
COVER...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH HUMIDITY ARE.

LOWER CLOUDS HAVE GENERALLY FORMED BEHIND A WEAK FRONT THAT HAS
NEARLY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. SUN AND A
GRADUAL SHIFT BACK TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD IMPROVE MVFR
CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME LIGHT FOG AND PERHAPS MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND AND NEAR OUN/OKC/CSM.

SOUTH WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW
MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...BEFORE
STALLING. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WHERE BETTER
MID- LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY FORM IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS DURING
PEAK HEATING.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA WITHIN AN AREA OF WAA.
STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP SOUTHWARD.

BY LATE WEEK...THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...IN ADVANCE OF A WEST COAST TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE FRONTAL
TIMING...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOWER THAN SOME GUIDANCE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK APPEAR DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  84  68  89  69 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         86  68  90  69 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  87  70  90  71 /  20  20  20  20
GAGE OK           85  65  91  65 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     80  66  89  67 /  10  20  20  30
DURANT OK         87  69  89  70 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 161142
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
642 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SURFACE OBS INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS COVER ROUGHLY
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION IS AREAS OF FOG...SOME
DENSE...OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE LESS CLOUD
COVER...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH HUMIDITY ARE.

LOWER CLOUDS HAVE GENERALLY FORMED BEHIND A WEAK FRONT THAT HAS
NEARLY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. SUN AND A
GRADUAL SHIFT BACK TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD IMPROVE MVFR
CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME LIGHT FOG AND PERHAPS MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND AND NEAR OUN/OKC/CSM.

SOUTH WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW
MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...BEFORE
STALLING. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WHERE BETTER
MID- LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY FORM IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS DURING
PEAK HEATING.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA WITHIN AN AREA OF WAA.
STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP SOUTHWARD.

BY LATE WEEK...THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...IN ADVANCE OF A WEST COAST TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE FRONTAL
TIMING...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOWER THAN SOME GUIDANCE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK APPEAR DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  84  68  89  69 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         86  68  90  69 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  87  70  90  71 /  20  20  20  20
GAGE OK           85  65  91  65 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     80  66  89  67 /  10  20  20  30
DURANT OK         87  69  89  70 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 160905
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
405 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW
MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...BEFORE
STALLING. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WHERE BETTER
MID- LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY FORM IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS DURING
PEAK HEATING.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA WITHIN AN AREA OF WAA.
STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP SOUTHWARD.

BY LATE WEEK...THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...IN ADVANCE OF A WEST COAST TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE FRONTAL
TIMING...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOWER THAN SOME GUIDANCE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK APPEAR DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  84  68  89  69 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         86  68  90  69 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  87  70  90  71 /  20  20  20  20
GAGE OK           85  65  91  65 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     80  66  89  67 /  10  20  20  30
DURANT OK         87  69  89  70 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 160905
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
405 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW
MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...BEFORE
STALLING. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WHERE BETTER
MID- LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY FORM IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS DURING
PEAK HEATING.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA WITHIN AN AREA OF WAA.
STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP SOUTHWARD.

BY LATE WEEK...THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...IN ADVANCE OF A WEST COAST TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE FRONTAL
TIMING...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOWER THAN SOME GUIDANCE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK APPEAR DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  84  68  89  69 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         86  68  90  69 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  87  70  90  71 /  20  20  20  20
GAGE OK           85  65  91  65 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     80  66  89  67 /  10  20  20  30
DURANT OK         87  69  89  70 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 160815
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
315 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND VERY
FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAS BECOME STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 44 EARLY THIS MORNING. EVENING SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY
DISSIPATED BY MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
TEASE FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CHANCE OF
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TODAY LOOKS FAIRLY SMALL...BUT WITH THE
BOUNDARY LINGERING...WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44. INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHWARD SOME. A DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY TO FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS TOMORROW. THAT SHOULD LEAD
TO A FAIRLY GOOD TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75
AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES IN ARKANSAS. THE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP SMALL STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE A BRIEF DRY SPELL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS.

AT THIS POINT...THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED AND LIKELY
FAIRLY WET...AS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE BRING A HEALTHY
DOSE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE REGION...AND A STRONG COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF RUNS HAVE SHIFTED
THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS AND
MISSOURI...RATHER THAN AFFECTING EASTERN OKLAHOMA OR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...BUT EVEN IF THIS ENDS UP VERIFYING...WE STILL STAND TO
GET SOME DECENT RAINFALL ALONG THE FRONT WHEN IT PASSES SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW DAY PERIOD OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  68  89  70 /  20  20  20  20
FSM   84  67  86  68 /  20  20  40  30
MLC   84  68  88  69 /  20  10  20  30
BVO   79  64  88  66 /  10  20  20  30
FYV   78  62  81  64 /  20  20  50  40
BYV   74  61  78  63 /  20  20  60  50
MKO   82  67  87  67 /  20  20  30  20
MIO   76  63  83  66 /  20  20  50  50
F10   82  68  88  69 /  20  20  20  20
HHW   87  69  88  69 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 160815
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
315 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND VERY
FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAS BECOME STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 44 EARLY THIS MORNING. EVENING SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY
DISSIPATED BY MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
TEASE FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CHANCE OF
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TODAY LOOKS FAIRLY SMALL...BUT WITH THE
BOUNDARY LINGERING...WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44. INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHWARD SOME. A DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY TO FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS TOMORROW. THAT SHOULD LEAD
TO A FAIRLY GOOD TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75
AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES IN ARKANSAS. THE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP SMALL STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE A BRIEF DRY SPELL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS.

AT THIS POINT...THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED AND LIKELY
FAIRLY WET...AS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE BRING A HEALTHY
DOSE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE REGION...AND A STRONG COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF RUNS HAVE SHIFTED
THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS AND
MISSOURI...RATHER THAN AFFECTING EASTERN OKLAHOMA OR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...BUT EVEN IF THIS ENDS UP VERIFYING...WE STILL STAND TO
GET SOME DECENT RAINFALL ALONG THE FRONT WHEN IT PASSES SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW DAY PERIOD OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  68  89  70 /  20  20  20  20
FSM   84  67  86  68 /  20  20  40  30
MLC   84  68  88  69 /  20  10  20  30
BVO   79  64  88  66 /  10  20  20  30
FYV   78  62  81  64 /  20  20  50  40
BYV   74  61  78  63 /  20  20  60  50
MKO   82  67  87  67 /  20  20  30  20
MIO   76  63  83  66 /  20  20  50  50
F10   82  68  88  69 /  20  20  20  20
HHW   87  69  88  69 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....22





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