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000
FXUS64 KTSA 031546
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1046 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
AN EARLIER UPDATE WAS SENT TO CONFINE THE HIGHEST
POPS TO FAR SE OK AND WRN AR. UPPER WAVE NOTED ON
WV IMAGERY ACROSS THE CNTRL MS VALLEY WILL DROP INTO
OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE
STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   88  69  89  73 /  40  20  10  50
FSM   86  70  88  72 /  60  40  30  40
MLC   85  70  87  73 /  60  40  30  40
BVO   87  66  88  70 /  30  20  10  50
FYV   82  65  84  68 /  60  20  20  20
BYV   80  64  83  67 /  60  20  20  20
MKO   85  69  87  72 /  60  30  20  40
MIO   84  66  88  70 /  40  20  10  20
F10   85  69  87  73 /  50  30  20  40
HHW   84  71  87  73 /  70  60  50  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....21



000
FXUS64 KTSA 031546
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1046 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
AN EARLIER UPDATE WAS SENT TO CONFINE THE HIGHEST
POPS TO FAR SE OK AND WRN AR. UPPER WAVE NOTED ON
WV IMAGERY ACROSS THE CNTRL MS VALLEY WILL DROP INTO
OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE
STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   88  69  89  73 /  40  20  10  50
FSM   86  70  88  72 /  60  40  30  40
MLC   85  70  87  73 /  60  40  30  40
BVO   87  66  88  70 /  30  20  10  50
FYV   82  65  84  68 /  60  20  20  20
BYV   80  64  83  67 /  60  20  20  20
MKO   85  69  87  72 /  60  30  20  40
MIO   84  66  88  70 /  40  20  10  20
F10   85  69  87  73 /  50  30  20  40
HHW   84  71  87  73 /  70  60  50  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....21



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000
FXUS64 KOUN 031536
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1036 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED MORNING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS CONFINING
HIGHEST POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST. STILL HAVE MIXED SIGNALS ON STORM
REDEVELOPMENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE NUMERIC MODELS... BUT
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS RELATIVELY LOW AND DECREASING AND
BOUNDARIES REMAIN IN THE AREA... SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
HIGHER CHANCES OF AFTERNOON STORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
03/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF FORECAST. WILL BE
MORE SCATTERED ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY
SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO DOMINATE FORECAST. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND
NORTH OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL INCLUDE PROB30 TSRA FOR
ALL BUT NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
00Z FOR MENTION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SUBSTANTIAL RAIN TOTALS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH
RAIN TOTALS WERE REALIZED LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN MAJOR COUNTY AND ALSO OVER MUCH OF THE OKC METRO.
ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY OFFICIAL RAIN MEASUREMENTS
RECEIVED...TOTALS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION JUST
SOUTH OF GUTHRIE DOWN INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF EDMOND. AS
EACH DAY EVOLVES...THE NUMBER OF THESE SMALL AREAS OF HIGH RAIN
TOTALS WILL INCREASE...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE RIVER AND
RESERVOIR FLOOD ISSUE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST RAIN
TOTALS OVER THE WEEK ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...ALTHOUGH THE RAIN SEEN THE PAST 12 HOURS
WOULD TEND TO SPREAD THIS POTENTIAL DOWN INTO CENTRAL AND PERHAPS
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF OKLAHOMA.

SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO STALL ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. MODEST VEERED LLJ
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND SHIFT SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A
MOSTLY RAIN-FREE PERIOD LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON
BEFORE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS NEAR AND JUST
NORTH OF MENTIONED STALLED FRONT AS SERIES OF S/WV TROUGHS MOVE
THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS AND DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. COULD BE A BUSY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DOWNBURST WIND
GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THE PRIMARY IMPACTS. HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...WHICH WAS REALIZED ACROSS OKC
METRO LAST EVENING AND EARLY THIS MORNING.

AS ANOTHER S/WV TROUGH MOVES TOWARD REGION LATE SATURDAY...CHANCES
WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP NORTH AND WEST OF OKLAHOMA AND
MOVE TOWARD INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS NORTHEAST HALF OF OKLAHOMA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH RAIN TOTALS APPEAR POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME.

LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGD TO ROTATE THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ALLOWING ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
AFFECT THE REGION. ALL MODELS FORECAST CONVECTION NEAR THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS IT TRIES TO
PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTH OVER OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS.
ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS THIS FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH. MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THEN PROGD TO BUILD OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE NEXT WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND YIELDING HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  89  73  90 /  30  30  30  20
HOBART OK         70  92  73  94 /  40  30  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  93  75  95 /  40  20  10  10
GAGE OK           67  91  72  93 /  20  30  30  10
PONCA CITY OK     68  89  73  90 /  20  10  50  40
DURANT OK         71  90  73  89 /  60  40  30  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99




000
FXUS64 KOUN 031536
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1036 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED MORNING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS CONFINING
HIGHEST POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST. STILL HAVE MIXED SIGNALS ON STORM
REDEVELOPMENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE NUMERIC MODELS... BUT
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS RELATIVELY LOW AND DECREASING AND
BOUNDARIES REMAIN IN THE AREA... SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
HIGHER CHANCES OF AFTERNOON STORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
03/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF FORECAST. WILL BE
MORE SCATTERED ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY
SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO DOMINATE FORECAST. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND
NORTH OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL INCLUDE PROB30 TSRA FOR
ALL BUT NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
00Z FOR MENTION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SUBSTANTIAL RAIN TOTALS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH
RAIN TOTALS WERE REALIZED LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN MAJOR COUNTY AND ALSO OVER MUCH OF THE OKC METRO.
ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY OFFICIAL RAIN MEASUREMENTS
RECEIVED...TOTALS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION JUST
SOUTH OF GUTHRIE DOWN INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF EDMOND. AS
EACH DAY EVOLVES...THE NUMBER OF THESE SMALL AREAS OF HIGH RAIN
TOTALS WILL INCREASE...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE RIVER AND
RESERVOIR FLOOD ISSUE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST RAIN
TOTALS OVER THE WEEK ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...ALTHOUGH THE RAIN SEEN THE PAST 12 HOURS
WOULD TEND TO SPREAD THIS POTENTIAL DOWN INTO CENTRAL AND PERHAPS
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF OKLAHOMA.

SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO STALL ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. MODEST VEERED LLJ
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND SHIFT SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A
MOSTLY RAIN-FREE PERIOD LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON
BEFORE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS NEAR AND JUST
NORTH OF MENTIONED STALLED FRONT AS SERIES OF S/WV TROUGHS MOVE
THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS AND DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. COULD BE A BUSY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DOWNBURST WIND
GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THE PRIMARY IMPACTS. HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...WHICH WAS REALIZED ACROSS OKC
METRO LAST EVENING AND EARLY THIS MORNING.

AS ANOTHER S/WV TROUGH MOVES TOWARD REGION LATE SATURDAY...CHANCES
WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP NORTH AND WEST OF OKLAHOMA AND
MOVE TOWARD INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS NORTHEAST HALF OF OKLAHOMA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH RAIN TOTALS APPEAR POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME.

LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGD TO ROTATE THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ALLOWING ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
AFFECT THE REGION. ALL MODELS FORECAST CONVECTION NEAR THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS IT TRIES TO
PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTH OVER OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS.
ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS THIS FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH. MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THEN PROGD TO BUILD OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE NEXT WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND YIELDING HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  89  73  90 /  30  30  30  20
HOBART OK         70  92  73  94 /  40  30  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  93  75  95 /  40  20  10  10
GAGE OK           67  91  72  93 /  20  30  30  10
PONCA CITY OK     68  89  73  90 /  20  10  50  40
DURANT OK         71  90  73  89 /  60  40  30  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99



000
FXUS64 KOUN 031147
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
647 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
03/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF FORECAST. WILL BE
MORE SCATTERED ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY
SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO DOMINATE FORECAST. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND
NORTH OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL INCLUDE PROB30 TSRA FOR
ALL BUT NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
00Z FOR MENTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SUBSTANTIAL RAIN TOTALS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH
RAIN TOTALS WERE REALIZED LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN MAJOR COUNTY AND ALSO OVER MUCH OF THE OKC METRO.
ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY OFFICIAL RAIN MEASUREMENTS
RECEIVED...TOTALS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION JUST
SOUTH OF GUTHRIE DOWN INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF EDMOND. AS
EACH DAY EVOLVES...THE NUMBER OF THESE SMALL AREAS OF HIGH RAIN
TOTALS WILL INCREASE...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE RIVER AND
RESERVOIR FLOOD ISSUE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST RAIN
TOTALS OVER THE WEEK ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...ALTHOUGH THE RAIN SEEN THE PAST 12 HOURS
WOULD TEND TO SPREAD THIS POTENTIAL DOWN INTO CENTRAL AND PERHAPS
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF OKLAHOMA.

SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO STALL ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. MODEST VEERED LLJ
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND SHIFT SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A
MOSTLY RAIN-FREE PERIOD LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON
BEFORE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS NEAR AND JUST
NORTH OF MENTIONED STALLED FRONT AS SERIES OF S/WV TROUGHS MOVE
THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS AND DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. COULD BE A BUSY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DOWNBURST WIND
GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THE PRIMARY IMPACTS. HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...WHICH WAS REALIZED ACROSS OKC
METRO LAST EVENING AND EARLY THIS MORNING.

AS ANOTHER S/WV TROUGH MOVES TOWARD REGION LATE SATURDAY...CHANCES
WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP NORTH AND WEST OF OKLAHOMA AND
MOVE TOWARD INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS NORTHEAST HALF OF OKLAHOMA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH RAIN TOTALS APPEAR POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME.

LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGD TO ROTATE THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ALLOWING ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
AFFECT THE REGION. ALL MODELS FORECAST CONVECTION NEAR THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS IT TRIES TO
PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTH OVER OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS.
ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS THIS FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH. MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THEN PROGD TO BUILD OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE NEXT WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND YIELDING HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  71  89  73 /  30  30  30  30
HOBART OK         92  70  92  73 /  30  40  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  92  73  93  75 /  40  40  20  10
GAGE OK           90  67  91  72 /  20  20  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     89  68  89  73 /  20  20  10  50
DURANT OK         88  71  90  73 / 100  60  40  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/99/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 031147
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
647 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
03/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF FORECAST. WILL BE
MORE SCATTERED ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY
SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO DOMINATE FORECAST. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND
NORTH OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL INCLUDE PROB30 TSRA FOR
ALL BUT NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
00Z FOR MENTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SUBSTANTIAL RAIN TOTALS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH
RAIN TOTALS WERE REALIZED LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN MAJOR COUNTY AND ALSO OVER MUCH OF THE OKC METRO.
ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY OFFICIAL RAIN MEASUREMENTS
RECEIVED...TOTALS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION JUST
SOUTH OF GUTHRIE DOWN INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF EDMOND. AS
EACH DAY EVOLVES...THE NUMBER OF THESE SMALL AREAS OF HIGH RAIN
TOTALS WILL INCREASE...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE RIVER AND
RESERVOIR FLOOD ISSUE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST RAIN
TOTALS OVER THE WEEK ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...ALTHOUGH THE RAIN SEEN THE PAST 12 HOURS
WOULD TEND TO SPREAD THIS POTENTIAL DOWN INTO CENTRAL AND PERHAPS
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF OKLAHOMA.

SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO STALL ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. MODEST VEERED LLJ
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND SHIFT SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A
MOSTLY RAIN-FREE PERIOD LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON
BEFORE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS NEAR AND JUST
NORTH OF MENTIONED STALLED FRONT AS SERIES OF S/WV TROUGHS MOVE
THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS AND DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. COULD BE A BUSY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DOWNBURST WIND
GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THE PRIMARY IMPACTS. HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...WHICH WAS REALIZED ACROSS OKC
METRO LAST EVENING AND EARLY THIS MORNING.

AS ANOTHER S/WV TROUGH MOVES TOWARD REGION LATE SATURDAY...CHANCES
WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP NORTH AND WEST OF OKLAHOMA AND
MOVE TOWARD INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS NORTHEAST HALF OF OKLAHOMA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH RAIN TOTALS APPEAR POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME.

LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGD TO ROTATE THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ALLOWING ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
AFFECT THE REGION. ALL MODELS FORECAST CONVECTION NEAR THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS IT TRIES TO
PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTH OVER OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS.
ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS THIS FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH. MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THEN PROGD TO BUILD OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE NEXT WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND YIELDING HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  71  89  73 /  30  30  30  30
HOBART OK         92  70  92  73 /  30  40  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  92  73  93  75 /  40  40  20  10
GAGE OK           90  67  91  72 /  20  20  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     89  68  89  73 /  20  20  10  50
DURANT OK         88  71  90  73 / 100  60  40  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/99/11




000
FXUS64 KTSA 031105
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
605 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT FSM FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS AT THE OTHER NW AR
TERMINALS AS WELL. ADDITIONAL TSRA WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG LINGERING BOUNDARY...WITH TERMINALS SOUTHWEST OF
INTERSTATE 44 MOST LIKELY TO SEE REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS A
RESULT. A GENERAL IMPROVING TREND WILL BE SEEN LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...FOCUSING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL DATA
SUGGESTS VERY UNSTABLE AIR FROM EAST CENTRAL OK OVER INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...NWRLY SHEAR WILL
INCREASE AS UPPER WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY SLIDES
BY JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST. THUS...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL
INCREASE TODAY. THE BEST STORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH
WITH TIME TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES RAMP BACK UP IN WARM
ADVECTION REGIME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SHUTTING OFF
BRIEFLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT BOUNDARY MOVES IN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF PRECIP.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DELAY ONSET OF UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR AREA
NEXT WEEK. NOW LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22




000
FXUS64 KTSA 031105
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
605 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT FSM FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS AT THE OTHER NW AR
TERMINALS AS WELL. ADDITIONAL TSRA WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG LINGERING BOUNDARY...WITH TERMINALS SOUTHWEST OF
INTERSTATE 44 MOST LIKELY TO SEE REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS A
RESULT. A GENERAL IMPROVING TREND WILL BE SEEN LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...FOCUSING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL DATA
SUGGESTS VERY UNSTABLE AIR FROM EAST CENTRAL OK OVER INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...NWRLY SHEAR WILL
INCREASE AS UPPER WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY SLIDES
BY JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST. THUS...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL
INCREASE TODAY. THE BEST STORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH
WITH TIME TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES RAMP BACK UP IN WARM
ADVECTION REGIME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SHUTTING OFF
BRIEFLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT BOUNDARY MOVES IN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF PRECIP.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DELAY ONSET OF UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR AREA
NEXT WEEK. NOW LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22



000
FXUS64 KTSA 031105
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
605 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT FSM FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS AT THE OTHER NW AR
TERMINALS AS WELL. ADDITIONAL TSRA WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG LINGERING BOUNDARY...WITH TERMINALS SOUTHWEST OF
INTERSTATE 44 MOST LIKELY TO SEE REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS A
RESULT. A GENERAL IMPROVING TREND WILL BE SEEN LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...FOCUSING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL DATA
SUGGESTS VERY UNSTABLE AIR FROM EAST CENTRAL OK OVER INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...NWRLY SHEAR WILL
INCREASE AS UPPER WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY SLIDES
BY JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST. THUS...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL
INCREASE TODAY. THE BEST STORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH
WITH TIME TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES RAMP BACK UP IN WARM
ADVECTION REGIME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SHUTTING OFF
BRIEFLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT BOUNDARY MOVES IN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF PRECIP.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DELAY ONSET OF UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR AREA
NEXT WEEK. NOW LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22




000
FXUS64 KTSA 031105
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
605 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT FSM FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS AT THE OTHER NW AR
TERMINALS AS WELL. ADDITIONAL TSRA WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG LINGERING BOUNDARY...WITH TERMINALS SOUTHWEST OF
INTERSTATE 44 MOST LIKELY TO SEE REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS A
RESULT. A GENERAL IMPROVING TREND WILL BE SEEN LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...FOCUSING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL DATA
SUGGESTS VERY UNSTABLE AIR FROM EAST CENTRAL OK OVER INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...NWRLY SHEAR WILL
INCREASE AS UPPER WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY SLIDES
BY JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST. THUS...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL
INCREASE TODAY. THE BEST STORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH
WITH TIME TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES RAMP BACK UP IN WARM
ADVECTION REGIME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SHUTTING OFF
BRIEFLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT BOUNDARY MOVES IN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF PRECIP.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DELAY ONSET OF UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR AREA
NEXT WEEK. NOW LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22



000
FXUS64 KOUN 030958
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
458 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SUBSTANTIAL RAIN TOTALS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH
RAIN TOTALS WERE REALIZED LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN MAJOR COUNTY AND ALSO OVER MUCH OF THE OKC METRO.
ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY OFFICIAL RAIN MEASUREMENTS
RECEIVED...TOTALS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION JUST
SOUTH OF GUTHRIE DOWN INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF EDMOND. AS
EACH DAY EVOLVES...THE NUMBER OF THESE SMALL AREAS OF HIGH RAIN
TOTALS WILL INCREASE...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE RIVER AND
RESERVOIR FLOOD ISSUE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST RAIN
TOTALS OVER THE WEEK ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...ALTHOUGH THE RAIN SEEN THE PAST 12 HOURS
WOULD TEND TO SPREAD THIS POTENTIAL DOWN INTO CENTRAL AND PERHAPS
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF OKLAHOMA.

SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO STALL ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. MODEST VEERED LLJ
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND SHIFT SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A
MOSTLY RAIN-FREE PERIOD LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON
BEFORE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS NEAR AND JUST
NORTH OF MENTIONED STALLED FRONT AS SERIES OF S/WV TROUGHS MOVE
THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS AND DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. COULD BE A BUSY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DOWNBURST WIND
GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THE PRIMARY IMPACTS. HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...WHICH WAS REALIZED ACROSS OKC
METRO LAST EVENING AND EARLY THIS MORNING.

AS ANOTHER S/WV TROUGH MOVES TOWARD REGION LATE SATURDAY...CHANCES
WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP NORTH AND WEST OF OKLAHOMA AND
MOVE TOWARD INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS NORTHEAST HALF OF OKLAHOMA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH RAIN TOTALS APPEAR POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME.

LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGD TO ROTATE THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ALLOWING ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
AFFECT THE REGION. ALL MODELS FORECAST CONVECTION NEAR THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS IT TRIES TO
PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTH OVER OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS.
ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS THIS FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH. MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THEN PROGD TO BUILD OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE NEXT WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND YIELDING HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  71  89  73 /  20  30  30  30
HOBART OK         92  70  92  73 /  30  40  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  92  73  93  75 /  40  40  20  10
GAGE OK           90  67  91  72 /  20  20  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     89  68  89  73 /  20  20  10  50
DURANT OK         88  71  90  73 /  80  60  40  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/11




000
FXUS64 KTSA 030738
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
238 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...FOCUSING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL DATA
SUGGESTS VERY UNSTABLE AIR FROM EAST CENTRAL OK OVER INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...NWRLY SHEAR WILL
INCREASE AS UPPER WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY SLIDES
BY JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST. THUS...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL
INCREASE TODAY. THE BEST STORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH
WITH TIME TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES RAMP BACK UP IN WARM
ADVECTION REGIME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SHUTTING OFF
BRIEFLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT BOUNDARY MOVES IN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF PRECIP.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DELAY ONSET OF UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR AREA
NEXT WEEK. NOW LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   88  69  89  73 /  50  20  10  50
FSM   86  70  88  72 /  70  40  30  40
MLC   85  70  87  73 /  60  40  30  40
BVO   87  66  88  70 /  40  20  10  50
FYV   82  65  84  68 /  60  20  20  20
BYV   80  64  83  67 /  60  20  20  20
MKO   85  69  87  72 /  60  30  20  40
MIO   84  66  88  70 /  50  20  10  20
F10   85  69  87  73 /  60  30  20  40
HHW   84  71  87  73 /  70  60  50  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30



000
FXUS64 KTSA 030738
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
238 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...FOCUSING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL DATA
SUGGESTS VERY UNSTABLE AIR FROM EAST CENTRAL OK OVER INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...NWRLY SHEAR WILL
INCREASE AS UPPER WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY SLIDES
BY JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST. THUS...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL
INCREASE TODAY. THE BEST STORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH
WITH TIME TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES RAMP BACK UP IN WARM
ADVECTION REGIME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SHUTTING OFF
BRIEFLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT BOUNDARY MOVES IN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF PRECIP.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DELAY ONSET OF UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR AREA
NEXT WEEK. NOW LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   88  69  89  73 /  50  20  10  50
FSM   86  70  88  72 /  70  40  30  40
MLC   85  70  87  73 /  60  40  30  40
BVO   87  66  88  70 /  40  20  10  50
FYV   82  65  84  68 /  60  20  20  20
BYV   80  64  83  67 /  60  20  20  20
MKO   85  69  87  72 /  60  30  20  40
MIO   84  66  88  70 /  50  20  10  20
F10   85  69  87  73 /  60  30  20  40
HHW   84  71  87  73 /  70  60  50  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30



000
FXUS64 KTSA 030738
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
238 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...FOCUSING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL DATA
SUGGESTS VERY UNSTABLE AIR FROM EAST CENTRAL OK OVER INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...NWRLY SHEAR WILL
INCREASE AS UPPER WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY SLIDES
BY JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST. THUS...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL
INCREASE TODAY. THE BEST STORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH
WITH TIME TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES RAMP BACK UP IN WARM
ADVECTION REGIME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SHUTTING OFF
BRIEFLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT BOUNDARY MOVES IN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF PRECIP.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DELAY ONSET OF UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR AREA
NEXT WEEK. NOW LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   88  69  89  73 /  50  20  10  50
FSM   86  70  88  72 /  70  40  30  40
MLC   85  70  87  73 /  60  40  30  40
BVO   87  66  88  70 /  40  20  10  50
FYV   82  65  84  68 /  60  20  20  20
BYV   80  64  83  67 /  60  20  20  20
MKO   85  69  87  72 /  60  30  20  40
MIO   84  66  88  70 /  50  20  10  20
F10   85  69  87  73 /  60  30  20  40
HHW   84  71  87  73 /  70  60  50  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30



000
FXUS64 KTSA 030738
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
238 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...FOCUSING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL DATA
SUGGESTS VERY UNSTABLE AIR FROM EAST CENTRAL OK OVER INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...NWRLY SHEAR WILL
INCREASE AS UPPER WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY SLIDES
BY JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST. THUS...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL
INCREASE TODAY. THE BEST STORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH
WITH TIME TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES RAMP BACK UP IN WARM
ADVECTION REGIME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SHUTTING OFF
BRIEFLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT BOUNDARY MOVES IN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF PRECIP.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DELAY ONSET OF UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR AREA
NEXT WEEK. NOW LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   88  69  89  73 /  50  20  10  50
FSM   86  70  88  72 /  70  40  30  40
MLC   85  70  87  73 /  60  40  30  40
BVO   87  66  88  70 /  40  20  10  50
FYV   82  65  84  68 /  60  20  20  20
BYV   80  64  83  67 /  60  20  20  20
MKO   85  69  87  72 /  60  30  20  40
MIO   84  66  88  70 /  50  20  10  20
F10   85  69  87  73 /  60  30  20  40
HHW   84  71  87  73 /  70  60  50  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30



000
FXUS64 KTSA 030451
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1151 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OFF AND ON AGAIN
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOLDING OVER
THE REGION. PERIODS OF IFR TO MVFR CONDTIONS WILL BE CAPABLE
WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. GREATER PRECIP CHANCES LOOK
TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AND THEN SPREADING THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 911 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY FROM WESTERN
OKLAHOMA...ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
INTO FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE INTERACTING
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AIDED IN STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AS OF 9 PM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINED OVER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND AN INCREASING CAP...OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL
HAS BEGUN A DOWNWARD TREND. THUS...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONT HOLDS OVER THE
REGION. A SMALL SEVERE WIND THREAT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...OTHERWISE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND VARIABLE WINDS DURING THE NIGHT SHOULD
HELP KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S/LOW 70S ACROSS THE CWA. EVENING
UPDATE...WILL BE TO TWEAK POPS/WX/SKY/WIND GRIDS AND TO EXPIRE
THE WATCH BASED ON THE MENTIONED ABOVE. OTHERWISE THE CURRENT
FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  88  69  89 /  40  50  20  30
FSM   74  86  70  88 /  80  70  40  40
MLC   73  84  69  87 /  80  60  40  50
BVO   68  87  66  89 /  40  40  20  20
FYV   69  83  64  84 /  70  60  20  30
BYV   68  81  64  83 /  50  60  20  30
MKO   71  84  69  87 /  70  60  30  30
MIO   68  86  67  89 /  40  50  20  20
F10   72  84  69  87 /  90  60  30  40
HHW   73  83  70  87 /  60  70  60  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20




000
FXUS64 KTSA 030451
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1151 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OFF AND ON AGAIN
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOLDING OVER
THE REGION. PERIODS OF IFR TO MVFR CONDTIONS WILL BE CAPABLE
WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. GREATER PRECIP CHANCES LOOK
TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AND THEN SPREADING THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 911 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY FROM WESTERN
OKLAHOMA...ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
INTO FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE INTERACTING
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AIDED IN STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AS OF 9 PM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINED OVER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND AN INCREASING CAP...OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL
HAS BEGUN A DOWNWARD TREND. THUS...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONT HOLDS OVER THE
REGION. A SMALL SEVERE WIND THREAT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...OTHERWISE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND VARIABLE WINDS DURING THE NIGHT SHOULD
HELP KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S/LOW 70S ACROSS THE CWA. EVENING
UPDATE...WILL BE TO TWEAK POPS/WX/SKY/WIND GRIDS AND TO EXPIRE
THE WATCH BASED ON THE MENTIONED ABOVE. OTHERWISE THE CURRENT
FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  88  69  89 /  40  50  20  30
FSM   74  86  70  88 /  80  70  40  40
MLC   73  84  69  87 /  80  60  40  50
BVO   68  87  66  89 /  40  40  20  20
FYV   69  83  64  84 /  70  60  20  30
BYV   68  81  64  83 /  50  60  20  30
MKO   71  84  69  87 /  70  60  30  30
MIO   68  86  67  89 /  40  50  20  20
F10   72  84  69  87 /  90  60  30  40
HHW   73  83  70  87 /  60  70  60  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20




000
FXUS64 KTSA 030451
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1151 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OFF AND ON AGAIN
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOLDING OVER
THE REGION. PERIODS OF IFR TO MVFR CONDTIONS WILL BE CAPABLE
WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. GREATER PRECIP CHANCES LOOK
TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AND THEN SPREADING THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 911 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY FROM WESTERN
OKLAHOMA...ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
INTO FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE INTERACTING
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AIDED IN STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AS OF 9 PM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINED OVER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND AN INCREASING CAP...OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL
HAS BEGUN A DOWNWARD TREND. THUS...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONT HOLDS OVER THE
REGION. A SMALL SEVERE WIND THREAT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...OTHERWISE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND VARIABLE WINDS DURING THE NIGHT SHOULD
HELP KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S/LOW 70S ACROSS THE CWA. EVENING
UPDATE...WILL BE TO TWEAK POPS/WX/SKY/WIND GRIDS AND TO EXPIRE
THE WATCH BASED ON THE MENTIONED ABOVE. OTHERWISE THE CURRENT
FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  88  69  89 /  40  50  20  30
FSM   74  86  70  88 /  80  70  40  40
MLC   73  84  69  87 /  80  60  40  50
BVO   68  87  66  89 /  40  40  20  20
FYV   69  83  64  84 /  70  60  20  30
BYV   68  81  64  83 /  50  60  20  30
MKO   71  84  69  87 /  70  60  30  30
MIO   68  86  67  89 /  40  50  20  20
F10   72  84  69  87 /  90  60  30  40
HHW   73  83  70  87 /  60  70  60  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20




000
FXUS64 KTSA 030451
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1151 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OFF AND ON AGAIN
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOLDING OVER
THE REGION. PERIODS OF IFR TO MVFR CONDTIONS WILL BE CAPABLE
WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. GREATER PRECIP CHANCES LOOK
TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AND THEN SPREADING THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 911 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY FROM WESTERN
OKLAHOMA...ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
INTO FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE INTERACTING
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AIDED IN STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AS OF 9 PM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINED OVER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND AN INCREASING CAP...OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL
HAS BEGUN A DOWNWARD TREND. THUS...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONT HOLDS OVER THE
REGION. A SMALL SEVERE WIND THREAT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...OTHERWISE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND VARIABLE WINDS DURING THE NIGHT SHOULD
HELP KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S/LOW 70S ACROSS THE CWA. EVENING
UPDATE...WILL BE TO TWEAK POPS/WX/SKY/WIND GRIDS AND TO EXPIRE
THE WATCH BASED ON THE MENTIONED ABOVE. OTHERWISE THE CURRENT
FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  88  69  89 /  40  50  20  30
FSM   74  86  70  88 /  80  70  40  40
MLC   73  84  69  87 /  80  60  40  50
BVO   68  87  66  89 /  40  40  20  20
FYV   69  83  64  84 /  70  60  20  30
BYV   68  81  64  83 /  50  60  20  30
MKO   71  84  69  87 /  70  60  30  30
MIO   68  86  67  89 /  40  50  20  20
F10   72  84  69  87 /  90  60  30  40
HHW   73  83  70  87 /  60  70  60  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20




000
FXUS64 KTSA 030451
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1151 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OFF AND ON AGAIN
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOLDING OVER
THE REGION. PERIODS OF IFR TO MVFR CONDTIONS WILL BE CAPABLE
WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. GREATER PRECIP CHANCES LOOK
TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AND THEN SPREADING THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 911 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY FROM WESTERN
OKLAHOMA...ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
INTO FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE INTERACTING
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AIDED IN STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AS OF 9 PM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINED OVER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND AN INCREASING CAP...OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL
HAS BEGUN A DOWNWARD TREND. THUS...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONT HOLDS OVER THE
REGION. A SMALL SEVERE WIND THREAT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...OTHERWISE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND VARIABLE WINDS DURING THE NIGHT SHOULD
HELP KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S/LOW 70S ACROSS THE CWA. EVENING
UPDATE...WILL BE TO TWEAK POPS/WX/SKY/WIND GRIDS AND TO EXPIRE
THE WATCH BASED ON THE MENTIONED ABOVE. OTHERWISE THE CURRENT
FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  88  69  89 /  40  50  20  30
FSM   74  86  70  88 /  80  70  40  40
MLC   73  84  69  87 /  80  60  40  50
BVO   68  87  66  89 /  40  40  20  20
FYV   69  83  64  84 /  70  60  20  30
BYV   68  81  64  83 /  50  60  20  30
MKO   71  84  69  87 /  70  60  30  30
MIO   68  86  67  89 /  40  50  20  20
F10   72  84  69  87 /  90  60  30  40
HHW   73  83  70  87 /  60  70  60  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20



000
FXUS64 KOUN 030345
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1045 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL
PASS SLOWLY FROM CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH FRIDAY.
MOST STORMS WILL SUBSIDE AT NIGHT BUT AGAIN FORM IN THE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WHOSE PRIMARY RISK IS VERY GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL
PASS SLOWLY FROM NORTHERN INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH FRIDAY.
MOST STORMS WILL SUBSIDE AT NIGHT BUT AGAIN FORM IN THE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WHOSE PRIMARY RISK IS VERY GUSTY WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ALREADY STARTING TO SEE A FEW CELLS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHWARD. WITH AMPLE
CAPE...DCAPE...AND SHEAR...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD
WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AGAIN...INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS.

SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL SHIFT NORTH AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A SECOND FRONT SWINGING DOWN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE TO SET UP FOR CONVECTION. MODELS STALL THIS FRONT
ACROSS OKLAHOMA...KEEPING POPS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...MODELS TRY TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE BACK
IN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE KEPT SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF THESE COLD FRONTS...UNTIL THE RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD IN AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.

MAD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  89  70  89 /  70  40  50  30
HOBART OK         71  92  70  91 /  50  30  40  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  92  72  92 /  40  40  40  40
GAGE OK           67  89  66  90 /  20  30  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     68  89  68  89 /  30  30  30  20
DURANT OK         73  87  70  88 /  50  70  60  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/09/09



000
FXUS64 KOUN 030345
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1045 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL
PASS SLOWLY FROM CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH FRIDAY.
MOST STORMS WILL SUBSIDE AT NIGHT BUT AGAIN FORM IN THE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WHOSE PRIMARY RISK IS VERY GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL
PASS SLOWLY FROM NORTHERN INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH FRIDAY.
MOST STORMS WILL SUBSIDE AT NIGHT BUT AGAIN FORM IN THE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WHOSE PRIMARY RISK IS VERY GUSTY WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ALREADY STARTING TO SEE A FEW CELLS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHWARD. WITH AMPLE
CAPE...DCAPE...AND SHEAR...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD
WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AGAIN...INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS.

SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL SHIFT NORTH AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A SECOND FRONT SWINGING DOWN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE TO SET UP FOR CONVECTION. MODELS STALL THIS FRONT
ACROSS OKLAHOMA...KEEPING POPS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...MODELS TRY TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE BACK
IN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE KEPT SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF THESE COLD FRONTS...UNTIL THE RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD IN AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.

MAD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  89  70  89 /  70  40  50  30
HOBART OK         71  92  70  91 /  50  30  40  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  92  72  92 /  40  40  40  40
GAGE OK           67  89  66  90 /  20  30  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     68  89  68  89 /  30  30  30  20
DURANT OK         73  87  70  88 /  50  70  60  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/09/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 030345
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1045 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL
PASS SLOWLY FROM CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH FRIDAY.
MOST STORMS WILL SUBSIDE AT NIGHT BUT AGAIN FORM IN THE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WHOSE PRIMARY RISK IS VERY GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL
PASS SLOWLY FROM NORTHERN INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH FRIDAY.
MOST STORMS WILL SUBSIDE AT NIGHT BUT AGAIN FORM IN THE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WHOSE PRIMARY RISK IS VERY GUSTY WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ALREADY STARTING TO SEE A FEW CELLS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHWARD. WITH AMPLE
CAPE...DCAPE...AND SHEAR...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD
WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AGAIN...INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS.

SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL SHIFT NORTH AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A SECOND FRONT SWINGING DOWN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE TO SET UP FOR CONVECTION. MODELS STALL THIS FRONT
ACROSS OKLAHOMA...KEEPING POPS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...MODELS TRY TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE BACK
IN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE KEPT SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF THESE COLD FRONTS...UNTIL THE RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD IN AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.

MAD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  89  70  89 /  70  40  50  30
HOBART OK         71  92  70  91 /  50  30  40  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  92  72  92 /  40  40  40  40
GAGE OK           67  89  66  90 /  20  30  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     68  89  68  89 /  30  30  30  20
DURANT OK         73  87  70  88 /  50  70  60  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/09/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 030345
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1045 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL
PASS SLOWLY FROM CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH FRIDAY.
MOST STORMS WILL SUBSIDE AT NIGHT BUT AGAIN FORM IN THE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WHOSE PRIMARY RISK IS VERY GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL
PASS SLOWLY FROM NORTHERN INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH FRIDAY.
MOST STORMS WILL SUBSIDE AT NIGHT BUT AGAIN FORM IN THE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WHOSE PRIMARY RISK IS VERY GUSTY WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ALREADY STARTING TO SEE A FEW CELLS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHWARD. WITH AMPLE
CAPE...DCAPE...AND SHEAR...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD
WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AGAIN...INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS.

SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL SHIFT NORTH AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A SECOND FRONT SWINGING DOWN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE TO SET UP FOR CONVECTION. MODELS STALL THIS FRONT
ACROSS OKLAHOMA...KEEPING POPS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...MODELS TRY TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE BACK
IN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE KEPT SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF THESE COLD FRONTS...UNTIL THE RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD IN AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.

MAD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  89  70  89 /  70  40  50  30
HOBART OK         71  92  70  91 /  50  30  40  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  92  72  92 /  40  40  40  40
GAGE OK           67  89  66  90 /  20  30  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     68  89  68  89 /  30  30  30  20
DURANT OK         73  87  70  88 /  50  70  60  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/09/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 030345
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1045 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL
PASS SLOWLY FROM CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH FRIDAY.
MOST STORMS WILL SUBSIDE AT NIGHT BUT AGAIN FORM IN THE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WHOSE PRIMARY RISK IS VERY GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL
PASS SLOWLY FROM NORTHERN INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH FRIDAY.
MOST STORMS WILL SUBSIDE AT NIGHT BUT AGAIN FORM IN THE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WHOSE PRIMARY RISK IS VERY GUSTY WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ALREADY STARTING TO SEE A FEW CELLS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHWARD. WITH AMPLE
CAPE...DCAPE...AND SHEAR...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD
WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AGAIN...INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS.

SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL SHIFT NORTH AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A SECOND FRONT SWINGING DOWN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE TO SET UP FOR CONVECTION. MODELS STALL THIS FRONT
ACROSS OKLAHOMA...KEEPING POPS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...MODELS TRY TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE BACK
IN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE KEPT SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF THESE COLD FRONTS...UNTIL THE RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD IN AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.

MAD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  89  70  89 /  70  40  50  30
HOBART OK         71  92  70  91 /  50  30  40  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  92  72  92 /  40  40  40  40
GAGE OK           67  89  66  90 /  20  30  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     68  89  68  89 /  30  30  30  20
DURANT OK         73  87  70  88 /  50  70  60  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/09/09




000
FXUS64 KTSA 030211
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
911 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY FROM WESTERN
OKLAHOMA...ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
INTO FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE INTERACTING
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AIDED IN STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AS OF 9 PM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINED OVER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND AN INCREASING CAP...OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL
HAS BEGUN A DOWNWARD TREND. THUS...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONT HOLDS OVER THE
REGION. A SMALL SEVERE WIND THREAT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...OTHERWISE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND VARIABLE WINDS DURING THE NIGHT SHOULD
HELP KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S/LOW 70S ACROSS THE CWA. EVENING
UPDATE...WILL BE TO TWEAK POPS/WX/SKY/WIND GRIDS AND TO EXPIRE
THE WATCH BASED ON THE MENTIONED ABOVE. OTHERWISE THE CURRENT
FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  88  69  89 /  90  60  50  30
FSM   74  86  70  88 /  80  70  60  40
MLC   73  84  69  87 /  80  60  60  50
BVO   68  87  66  89 /  50  50  40  20
FYV   69  83  64  84 / 100  70  50  30
BYV   68  81  64  83 /  60  60  50  30
MKO   71  84  69  87 / 100  70  50  30
MIO   68  86  67  89 /  50  60  40  20
F10   72  84  69  87 /  80  60  50  40
HHW   73  83  70  87 /  60  70  60  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20



000
FXUS64 KTSA 030211
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
911 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY FROM WESTERN
OKLAHOMA...ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
INTO FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE INTERACTING
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AIDED IN STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AS OF 9 PM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINED OVER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND AN INCREASING CAP...OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL
HAS BEGUN A DOWNWARD TREND. THUS...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONT HOLDS OVER THE
REGION. A SMALL SEVERE WIND THREAT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...OTHERWISE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND VARIABLE WINDS DURING THE NIGHT SHOULD
HELP KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S/LOW 70S ACROSS THE CWA. EVENING
UPDATE...WILL BE TO TWEAK POPS/WX/SKY/WIND GRIDS AND TO EXPIRE
THE WATCH BASED ON THE MENTIONED ABOVE. OTHERWISE THE CURRENT
FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  88  69  89 /  90  60  50  30
FSM   74  86  70  88 /  80  70  60  40
MLC   73  84  69  87 /  80  60  60  50
BVO   68  87  66  89 /  50  50  40  20
FYV   69  83  64  84 / 100  70  50  30
BYV   68  81  64  83 /  60  60  50  30
MKO   71  84  69  87 / 100  70  50  30
MIO   68  86  67  89 /  50  60  40  20
F10   72  84  69  87 /  80  60  50  40
HHW   73  83  70  87 /  60  70  60  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20




000
FXUS64 KTSA 022352
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
652 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COMMON ACROSS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE REGION. IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING THE
BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WITH PRECIP CHANCES SPREADING THROUGHOUT THE
CWA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY...PRIMARILY A WIND-SHIFT LINE...WAS NOTED
ACROSS NE OK EXTENDING INTO WRN OK. SCATTERED CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO BUBBLE ACROSS SRN KS INTO NRN OK...AND THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE AS IT
ENCOUNTERS AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE (SURFACE-BASED CAPES 3500-4000
J/KG) ACROSS NE OK INTO NW AR. THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND DEEP
MOISTURE CONTENT SUGGESTS THAT A FEW STRONG DOWNBURSTS MAY OCCUR
WITH CONVECTION ALONG/NEAR THE WEAK FRONT INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH THE ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SINKING SWD AND WEAKENING
AFTER SUNSET.

THE FOCUS FOR MORE CONCENTRATED CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT A LITTLE
FARTHER S INTO SE OK AND WRN AR FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME INTENSIFICATION LIKELY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER UPPER
WAVE SWINGS THROUGH IN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT. A RETREATING SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALONG WITH THE PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS/STORMS THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

GIVEN THE HIGH FORECAST PRECIP-WATER VALUES (AROUND 2
INCHES)...AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING
WILL BE AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE PRECIPITATION LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
BRINGING ANOTHER WEAK FRONT AND INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  88  69  89 /  60  60  50  30
FSM   74  86  70  88 /  70  70  60  40
MLC   73  84  69  87 /  70  60  60  50
BVO   68  87  66  89 /  50  50  40  20
FYV   69  83  64  84 /  60  70  50  30
BYV   68  81  64  83 /  60  60  50  30
MKO   71  84  69  87 /  60  70  50  30
MIO   68  86  67  89 /  40  60  40  20
F10   72  84  69  87 /  70  60  50  40
HHW   73  83  70  87 /  60  70  60  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...20



000
FXUS64 KOUN 022332
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
632 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL
PASS SLOWLY FROM NORTHERN INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH FRIDAY.
MOST STORMS WILL SUBSIDE AT NIGHT BUT AGAIN FORM IN THE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WHOSE PRIMARY RISK IS VERY GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ALREADY STARTING TO SEE A FEW CELLS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHWARD. WITH AMPLE
CAPE...DCAPE...AND SHEAR...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD
WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AGAIN...INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS.

SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL SHIFT NORTH AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A SECOND FRONT SWINGING DOWN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE TO SET UP FOR CONVECTION. MODELS STALL THIS FRONT
ACROSS OKLAHOMA...KEEPING POPS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...MODELS TRY TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE BACK
IN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE KEPT SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF THESE COLD FRONTS...UNTIL THE RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD IN AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.

MAD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  89  70  89 /  50  40  50  30
HOBART OK         71  92  70  91 /  40  30  40  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  92  72  92 /  30  40  40  40
GAGE OK           67  89  66  90 /  30  30  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     70  89  68  89 /  60  30  30  20
DURANT OK         73  87  70  88 /  40  70  60  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/09/09



000
FXUS64 KOUN 022332
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
632 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL
PASS SLOWLY FROM NORTHERN INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH FRIDAY.
MOST STORMS WILL SUBSIDE AT NIGHT BUT AGAIN FORM IN THE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WHOSE PRIMARY RISK IS VERY GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ALREADY STARTING TO SEE A FEW CELLS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHWARD. WITH AMPLE
CAPE...DCAPE...AND SHEAR...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD
WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AGAIN...INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS.

SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL SHIFT NORTH AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A SECOND FRONT SWINGING DOWN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE TO SET UP FOR CONVECTION. MODELS STALL THIS FRONT
ACROSS OKLAHOMA...KEEPING POPS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...MODELS TRY TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE BACK
IN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE KEPT SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF THESE COLD FRONTS...UNTIL THE RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD IN AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.

MAD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  89  70  89 /  50  40  50  30
HOBART OK         71  92  70  91 /  40  30  40  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  92  72  92 /  30  40  40  40
GAGE OK           67  89  66  90 /  30  30  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     70  89  68  89 /  60  30  30  20
DURANT OK         73  87  70  88 /  40  70  60  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/09/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 022332
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
632 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL
PASS SLOWLY FROM NORTHERN INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH FRIDAY.
MOST STORMS WILL SUBSIDE AT NIGHT BUT AGAIN FORM IN THE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WHOSE PRIMARY RISK IS VERY GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ALREADY STARTING TO SEE A FEW CELLS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHWARD. WITH AMPLE
CAPE...DCAPE...AND SHEAR...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD
WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AGAIN...INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS.

SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL SHIFT NORTH AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A SECOND FRONT SWINGING DOWN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE TO SET UP FOR CONVECTION. MODELS STALL THIS FRONT
ACROSS OKLAHOMA...KEEPING POPS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...MODELS TRY TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE BACK
IN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE KEPT SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF THESE COLD FRONTS...UNTIL THE RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD IN AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.

MAD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  89  70  89 /  50  40  50  30
HOBART OK         71  92  70  91 /  40  30  40  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  92  72  92 /  30  40  40  40
GAGE OK           67  89  66  90 /  30  30  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     70  89  68  89 /  60  30  30  20
DURANT OK         73  87  70  88 /  40  70  60  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/09/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 022332
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
632 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL
PASS SLOWLY FROM NORTHERN INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH FRIDAY.
MOST STORMS WILL SUBSIDE AT NIGHT BUT AGAIN FORM IN THE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WHOSE PRIMARY RISK IS VERY GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ALREADY STARTING TO SEE A FEW CELLS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHWARD. WITH AMPLE
CAPE...DCAPE...AND SHEAR...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD
WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AGAIN...INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS.

SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL SHIFT NORTH AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A SECOND FRONT SWINGING DOWN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE TO SET UP FOR CONVECTION. MODELS STALL THIS FRONT
ACROSS OKLAHOMA...KEEPING POPS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...MODELS TRY TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE BACK
IN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE KEPT SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF THESE COLD FRONTS...UNTIL THE RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD IN AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.

MAD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  89  70  89 /  50  40  50  30
HOBART OK         71  92  70  91 /  40  30  40  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  92  72  92 /  30  40  40  40
GAGE OK           67  89  66  90 /  30  30  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     70  89  68  89 /  60  30  30  20
DURANT OK         73  87  70  88 /  40  70  60  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/09/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 022332
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
632 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL
PASS SLOWLY FROM NORTHERN INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH FRIDAY.
MOST STORMS WILL SUBSIDE AT NIGHT BUT AGAIN FORM IN THE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WHOSE PRIMARY RISK IS VERY GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ALREADY STARTING TO SEE A FEW CELLS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHWARD. WITH AMPLE
CAPE...DCAPE...AND SHEAR...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD
WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AGAIN...INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS.

SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL SHIFT NORTH AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A SECOND FRONT SWINGING DOWN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE TO SET UP FOR CONVECTION. MODELS STALL THIS FRONT
ACROSS OKLAHOMA...KEEPING POPS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...MODELS TRY TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE BACK
IN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE KEPT SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF THESE COLD FRONTS...UNTIL THE RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD IN AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.

MAD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  89  70  89 /  50  40  50  30
HOBART OK         71  92  70  91 /  40  30  40  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  92  72  92 /  30  40  40  40
GAGE OK           67  89  66  90 /  30  30  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     70  89  68  89 /  60  30  30  20
DURANT OK         73  87  70  88 /  40  70  60  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/09/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 022016
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
316 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ALREADY STARTING TO SEE A FEW CELLS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHWARD. WITH AMPLE
CAPE...DCAPE...AND SHEAR...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD
WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AGAIN...INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS.

SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL SHIFT NORTH AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A SECOND FRONT SWINGING DOWN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE TO SET UP FOR CONVECTION. MODELS STALL THIS FRONT
ACROSS OKLAHOMA...KEEPING POPS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...MODELS TRY TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE BACK
IN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE KEPT SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF THESE COLD FRONTS...UNTIL THE RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD IN AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.

MAD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  89  70  89 /  50  40  50  30
HOBART OK         71  92  70  91 /  40  30  40  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  92  72  92 /  30  40  40  40
GAGE OK           67  89  66  90 /  30  30  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     70  89  68  89 /  60  30  30  20
DURANT OK         73  87  70  88 /  40  70  60  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/14



000
FXUS64 KOUN 022016
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
316 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ALREADY STARTING TO SEE A FEW CELLS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHWARD. WITH AMPLE
CAPE...DCAPE...AND SHEAR...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD
WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AGAIN...INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS.

SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL SHIFT NORTH AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A SECOND FRONT SWINGING DOWN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE TO SET UP FOR CONVECTION. MODELS STALL THIS FRONT
ACROSS OKLAHOMA...KEEPING POPS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...MODELS TRY TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE BACK
IN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE KEPT SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF THESE COLD FRONTS...UNTIL THE RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD IN AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.

MAD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  89  70  89 /  50  40  50  30
HOBART OK         71  92  70  91 /  40  30  40  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  92  72  92 /  30  40  40  40
GAGE OK           67  89  66  90 /  30  30  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     70  89  68  89 /  60  30  30  20
DURANT OK         73  87  70  88 /  40  70  60  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/14



000
FXUS64 KOUN 022016
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
316 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ALREADY STARTING TO SEE A FEW CELLS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHWARD. WITH AMPLE
CAPE...DCAPE...AND SHEAR...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD
WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AGAIN...INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS.

SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL SHIFT NORTH AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A SECOND FRONT SWINGING DOWN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE TO SET UP FOR CONVECTION. MODELS STALL THIS FRONT
ACROSS OKLAHOMA...KEEPING POPS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...MODELS TRY TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE BACK
IN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE KEPT SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF THESE COLD FRONTS...UNTIL THE RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD IN AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.

MAD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  89  70  89 /  50  40  50  30
HOBART OK         71  92  70  91 /  40  30  40  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  92  72  92 /  30  40  40  40
GAGE OK           67  89  66  90 /  30  30  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     70  89  68  89 /  60  30  30  20
DURANT OK         73  87  70  88 /  40  70  60  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/14



000
FXUS64 KOUN 022016
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
316 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ALREADY STARTING TO SEE A FEW CELLS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHWARD. WITH AMPLE
CAPE...DCAPE...AND SHEAR...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD
WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AGAIN...INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS.

SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL SHIFT NORTH AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A SECOND FRONT SWINGING DOWN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE TO SET UP FOR CONVECTION. MODELS STALL THIS FRONT
ACROSS OKLAHOMA...KEEPING POPS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...MODELS TRY TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE BACK
IN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE KEPT SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF THESE COLD FRONTS...UNTIL THE RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD IN AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.

MAD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  89  70  89 /  50  40  50  30
HOBART OK         71  92  70  91 /  40  30  40  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  92  72  92 /  30  40  40  40
GAGE OK           67  89  66  90 /  30  30  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     70  89  68  89 /  60  30  30  20
DURANT OK         73  87  70  88 /  40  70  60  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/14



000
FXUS64 KTSA 022011
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
311 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY...PRIMARILY A WIND-SHIFT LINE...WAS NOTED
ACROSS NE OK EXTENDING INTO WRN OK. SCATTERED CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO BUBBLE ACROSS SRN KS INTO NRN OK...AND THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE AS IT
ENCOUNTERS AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE (SURFACE-BASED CAPES 3500-4000
J/KG) ACROSS NE OK INTO NW AR. THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND DEEP
MOISTURE CONTENT SUGGESTS THAT A FEW STRONG DOWNBURSTS MAY OCCUR
WITH CONVECTION ALONG/NEAR THE WEAK FRONT INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH THE ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SINKING SWD AND WEAKENING
AFTER SUNSET.

THE FOCUS FOR MORE CONCENTRATED CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT A LITTLE
FARTHER S INTO SE OK AND WRN AR FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME INTENSIFICATION LIKELY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER UPPER
WAVE SWINGS THROUGH IN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT. A RETREATING SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALONG WITH THE PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS/STORMS THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

GIVEN THE HIGH FORECAST PRECIP-WATER VALUES (AROUND 2
INCHES)...AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING
WILL BE AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE PRECIPITATION LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
BRINGING ANOTHER WEAK FRONT AND INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  88  69  89 /  60  60  50  30
FSM   74  86  70  88 /  70  70  60  40
MLC   73  84  69  87 /  70  60  60  50
BVO   68  87  66  89 /  40  50  40  20
FYV   69  83  64  84 /  60  70  50  30
BYV   68  81  64  83 /  60  60  50  30
MKO   71  84  69  87 /  60  70  50  30
MIO   68  86  67  89 /  40  60  40  20
F10   72  84  69  87 /  70  60  50  40
HHW   73  83  70  87 /  60  70  60  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....18



000
FXUS64 KTSA 022011
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
311 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY...PRIMARILY A WIND-SHIFT LINE...WAS NOTED
ACROSS NE OK EXTENDING INTO WRN OK. SCATTERED CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO BUBBLE ACROSS SRN KS INTO NRN OK...AND THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE AS IT
ENCOUNTERS AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE (SURFACE-BASED CAPES 3500-4000
J/KG) ACROSS NE OK INTO NW AR. THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND DEEP
MOISTURE CONTENT SUGGESTS THAT A FEW STRONG DOWNBURSTS MAY OCCUR
WITH CONVECTION ALONG/NEAR THE WEAK FRONT INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH THE ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SINKING SWD AND WEAKENING
AFTER SUNSET.

THE FOCUS FOR MORE CONCENTRATED CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT A LITTLE
FARTHER S INTO SE OK AND WRN AR FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME INTENSIFICATION LIKELY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER UPPER
WAVE SWINGS THROUGH IN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT. A RETREATING SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALONG WITH THE PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS/STORMS THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

GIVEN THE HIGH FORECAST PRECIP-WATER VALUES (AROUND 2
INCHES)...AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING
WILL BE AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE PRECIPITATION LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
BRINGING ANOTHER WEAK FRONT AND INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  88  69  89 /  60  60  50  30
FSM   74  86  70  88 /  70  70  60  40
MLC   73  84  69  87 /  70  60  60  50
BVO   68  87  66  89 /  40  50  40  20
FYV   69  83  64  84 /  60  70  50  30
BYV   68  81  64  83 /  60  60  50  30
MKO   71  84  69  87 /  60  70  50  30
MIO   68  86  67  89 /  40  60  40  20
F10   72  84  69  87 /  70  60  50  40
HHW   73  83  70  87 /  60  70  60  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....18



000
FXUS64 KTSA 022011
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
311 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY...PRIMARILY A WIND-SHIFT LINE...WAS NOTED
ACROSS NE OK EXTENDING INTO WRN OK. SCATTERED CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO BUBBLE ACROSS SRN KS INTO NRN OK...AND THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE AS IT
ENCOUNTERS AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE (SURFACE-BASED CAPES 3500-4000
J/KG) ACROSS NE OK INTO NW AR. THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND DEEP
MOISTURE CONTENT SUGGESTS THAT A FEW STRONG DOWNBURSTS MAY OCCUR
WITH CONVECTION ALONG/NEAR THE WEAK FRONT INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH THE ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SINKING SWD AND WEAKENING
AFTER SUNSET.

THE FOCUS FOR MORE CONCENTRATED CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT A LITTLE
FARTHER S INTO SE OK AND WRN AR FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME INTENSIFICATION LIKELY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER UPPER
WAVE SWINGS THROUGH IN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT. A RETREATING SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALONG WITH THE PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS/STORMS THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

GIVEN THE HIGH FORECAST PRECIP-WATER VALUES (AROUND 2
INCHES)...AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING
WILL BE AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE PRECIPITATION LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
BRINGING ANOTHER WEAK FRONT AND INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  88  69  89 /  60  60  50  30
FSM   74  86  70  88 /  70  70  60  40
MLC   73  84  69  87 /  70  60  60  50
BVO   68  87  66  89 /  40  50  40  20
FYV   69  83  64  84 /  60  70  50  30
BYV   68  81  64  83 /  60  60  50  30
MKO   71  84  69  87 /  60  70  50  30
MIO   68  86  67  89 /  40  60  40  20
F10   72  84  69  87 /  70  60  50  40
HHW   73  83  70  87 /  60  70  60  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....18



000
FXUS64 KTSA 022011
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
311 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY...PRIMARILY A WIND-SHIFT LINE...WAS NOTED
ACROSS NE OK EXTENDING INTO WRN OK. SCATTERED CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO BUBBLE ACROSS SRN KS INTO NRN OK...AND THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE AS IT
ENCOUNTERS AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE (SURFACE-BASED CAPES 3500-4000
J/KG) ACROSS NE OK INTO NW AR. THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND DEEP
MOISTURE CONTENT SUGGESTS THAT A FEW STRONG DOWNBURSTS MAY OCCUR
WITH CONVECTION ALONG/NEAR THE WEAK FRONT INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH THE ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SINKING SWD AND WEAKENING
AFTER SUNSET.

THE FOCUS FOR MORE CONCENTRATED CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT A LITTLE
FARTHER S INTO SE OK AND WRN AR FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME INTENSIFICATION LIKELY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER UPPER
WAVE SWINGS THROUGH IN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT. A RETREATING SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALONG WITH THE PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS/STORMS THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

GIVEN THE HIGH FORECAST PRECIP-WATER VALUES (AROUND 2
INCHES)...AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING
WILL BE AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE PRECIPITATION LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
BRINGING ANOTHER WEAK FRONT AND INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  88  69  89 /  60  60  50  30
FSM   74  86  70  88 /  70  70  60  40
MLC   73  84  69  87 /  70  60  60  50
BVO   68  87  66  89 /  40  50  40  20
FYV   69  83  64  84 /  60  70  50  30
BYV   68  81  64  83 /  60  60  50  30
MKO   71  84  69  87 /  60  70  50  30
MIO   68  86  67  89 /  40  60  40  20
F10   72  84  69  87 /  70  60  50  40
HHW   73  83  70  87 /  60  70  60  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....18



000
FXUS64 KOUN 021812
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
112 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH STORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. STORM CHANCES WILL GO UP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND WILL
LIKELY AFFECT TAF SITES. AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS MAKE THE
SPECIFIC MENTION OF TSRA IN TAF SITES TRICKY AS PROBABILITY AT
INDIVIDUAL SITES MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP.
COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1203 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED PRECIP/WX... TEMPS...

DISCUSSION...
CHALLENGING SCENARIO TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE WEAK
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO LOITER NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER... WITH LIGHT
CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITH A WEAK MCV OVER THE TX PH AND WRN OK.
BEHIND THE FRONT... A LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/FILL
IN SLOWLY ACROSS KS... IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE H850 FRONT AND
SUPPORT FROM THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NE/KS. ACROSS NRN AND
CENTRAL OK... LOW 70S DPTS CONTINUE TO RESIDE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. 12Z LAMONT SOUNDING IN NRN OK SHOWED FAIRLY DRY MID-
LEVELS... BUT SFC TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THE BL/MID-LVLS WILL
CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE... AS SUPPORTED BY RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE FROM THE NMM AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT
CONTINUITY IN COMPARISON WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS... AND HAVE
OVERALL... HANDLED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SPATIALLY BETTER THAN
TRADITIONAL GUIDANCE.

HOW CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTN WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
IMPACTS FROM THE CURRENT CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT. CURRENT
THOUGHTS ARE... AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES THROUGH 18/19Z...
EXPECT TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM POSSIBLY
AS FAR AS SWRN OK TO PONCA CITY... SIMILAR TO THE RECENT HRRR AND
12Z NMM... THOUGH BOTH ARE MORE THAN LIKELY A TAD BULLISH. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS NRN OK... NEARER THE BETTER FORCING AND
INSTABILITY. DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN... WITH
DCAPE VALUES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OK BY 20-21Z FROM 1500 TO 2000
J/KG... HEFTY VALUES. FREQUENT LIGHTNING... LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN... AND HAIL UP TO GOLF BALLS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL
WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT AS THEY DECREASE AND MOVE TOWARD
THE RED RIVER VALLEY... WHILE A COMPLEX IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS FAR EAST CENTRAL AND ERN OK MOVING SE INTO THE AR OZARKS.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH...ESPECIALLY
NEAR OKC/OUN. THE AFTERNOON TAFS MAY INCLUDE A MENTION OF THESE
GUSTS BUT WILL LEAVE THEM OUT FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES
REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST STORMS. THERE ARE STILL
MANY UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE DURATION OF THE STORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND TSRA MAY NEED TO BE REINTRODUCED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH AT PNC BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
LATE THIS MORNING...WITH MOST OTHER TERMINALS EXPERIENCING
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. CURRENTLY...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL VORT MAX
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT ESE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. ANOTHER AREA
OF ELEVATED MOIST CONVECTION HAS ALSO JUST DEVELOPED ALONG AN
INSTABILITY AXIS SE OF THE OKC METRO. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE BEFORE OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
MAY MANAGE TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO WESTERN OK AND SE/S OK.

LATER TODAY A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL OK. DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR. THE
TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN
OK...AND THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL OK. SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 TO 35
KT AND MLCAPE ~1500-2000 J/KG. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...BUT LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ~7 C/KM. THE STORMS MAY MERGE INTO A SMALL COMPLEX LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS E CENTRAL OK AND MOVE INTO SE OK DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SW OK AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND DRIFT EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE OK. A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY ON THE 4TH OF JULY AS ANOTHER...AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL...MID
TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE REGION SATURDAY AM. RAIN
CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THIS WAVE FOR MOST
OF THE AREA...BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS THE NE/E ZONES AS A WEAKER MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPS THESE ZONES. THE SAME STORY WILL
APPLY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EAST.

THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO NUDGE ITS WAY BACK OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WEST TEXAS MONDAY RESULTING IN WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MOST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER A COLD
FRONT MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS AND INTO SW KS/NW OK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL THEN INCREASE WITH THIS FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPANDING
SOUTHWARD INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL OK TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FINALLY...BY
MIDWEEK...THE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LIMIT ANY LOW POPS TO THE FAR NE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  93  71  88  70 /  40  70  40  50
HOBART OK         91  71  93  70 /  40  50  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  95  75  91  73 /  20  30  50  50
GAGE OK           89  66  89  67 /  50  30  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     92  70  89  68 /  40  30  30  30
DURANT OK         92  73  87  72 /  30  50  70  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/01




000
FXUS64 KOUN 021812
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
112 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH STORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. STORM CHANCES WILL GO UP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND WILL
LIKELY AFFECT TAF SITES. AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS MAKE THE
SPECIFIC MENTION OF TSRA IN TAF SITES TRICKY AS PROBABILITY AT
INDIVIDUAL SITES MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP.
COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1203 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED PRECIP/WX... TEMPS...

DISCUSSION...
CHALLENGING SCENARIO TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE WEAK
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO LOITER NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER... WITH LIGHT
CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITH A WEAK MCV OVER THE TX PH AND WRN OK.
BEHIND THE FRONT... A LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/FILL
IN SLOWLY ACROSS KS... IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE H850 FRONT AND
SUPPORT FROM THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NE/KS. ACROSS NRN AND
CENTRAL OK... LOW 70S DPTS CONTINUE TO RESIDE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. 12Z LAMONT SOUNDING IN NRN OK SHOWED FAIRLY DRY MID-
LEVELS... BUT SFC TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THE BL/MID-LVLS WILL
CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE... AS SUPPORTED BY RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE FROM THE NMM AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT
CONTINUITY IN COMPARISON WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS... AND HAVE
OVERALL... HANDLED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SPATIALLY BETTER THAN
TRADITIONAL GUIDANCE.

HOW CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTN WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
IMPACTS FROM THE CURRENT CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT. CURRENT
THOUGHTS ARE... AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES THROUGH 18/19Z...
EXPECT TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM POSSIBLY
AS FAR AS SWRN OK TO PONCA CITY... SIMILAR TO THE RECENT HRRR AND
12Z NMM... THOUGH BOTH ARE MORE THAN LIKELY A TAD BULLISH. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS NRN OK... NEARER THE BETTER FORCING AND
INSTABILITY. DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN... WITH
DCAPE VALUES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OK BY 20-21Z FROM 1500 TO 2000
J/KG... HEFTY VALUES. FREQUENT LIGHTNING... LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN... AND HAIL UP TO GOLF BALLS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL
WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT AS THEY DECREASE AND MOVE TOWARD
THE RED RIVER VALLEY... WHILE A COMPLEX IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS FAR EAST CENTRAL AND ERN OK MOVING SE INTO THE AR OZARKS.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH...ESPECIALLY
NEAR OKC/OUN. THE AFTERNOON TAFS MAY INCLUDE A MENTION OF THESE
GUSTS BUT WILL LEAVE THEM OUT FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES
REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST STORMS. THERE ARE STILL
MANY UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE DURATION OF THE STORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND TSRA MAY NEED TO BE REINTRODUCED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH AT PNC BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
LATE THIS MORNING...WITH MOST OTHER TERMINALS EXPERIENCING
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. CURRENTLY...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL VORT MAX
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT ESE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. ANOTHER AREA
OF ELEVATED MOIST CONVECTION HAS ALSO JUST DEVELOPED ALONG AN
INSTABILITY AXIS SE OF THE OKC METRO. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE BEFORE OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
MAY MANAGE TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO WESTERN OK AND SE/S OK.

LATER TODAY A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL OK. DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR. THE
TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN
OK...AND THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL OK. SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 TO 35
KT AND MLCAPE ~1500-2000 J/KG. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...BUT LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ~7 C/KM. THE STORMS MAY MERGE INTO A SMALL COMPLEX LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS E CENTRAL OK AND MOVE INTO SE OK DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SW OK AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND DRIFT EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE OK. A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY ON THE 4TH OF JULY AS ANOTHER...AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL...MID
TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE REGION SATURDAY AM. RAIN
CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THIS WAVE FOR MOST
OF THE AREA...BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS THE NE/E ZONES AS A WEAKER MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPS THESE ZONES. THE SAME STORY WILL
APPLY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EAST.

THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO NUDGE ITS WAY BACK OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WEST TEXAS MONDAY RESULTING IN WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MOST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER A COLD
FRONT MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS AND INTO SW KS/NW OK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL THEN INCREASE WITH THIS FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPANDING
SOUTHWARD INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL OK TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FINALLY...BY
MIDWEEK...THE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LIMIT ANY LOW POPS TO THE FAR NE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  93  71  88  70 /  40  70  40  50
HOBART OK         91  71  93  70 /  40  50  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  95  75  91  73 /  20  30  50  50
GAGE OK           89  66  89  67 /  50  30  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     92  70  89  68 /  40  30  30  30
DURANT OK         92  73  87  72 /  30  50  70  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/01



000
FXUS64 KOUN 021812
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
112 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH STORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. STORM CHANCES WILL GO UP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND WILL
LIKELY AFFECT TAF SITES. AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS MAKE THE
SPECIFIC MENTION OF TSRA IN TAF SITES TRICKY AS PROBABILITY AT
INDIVIDUAL SITES MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP.
COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1203 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED PRECIP/WX... TEMPS...

DISCUSSION...
CHALLENGING SCENARIO TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE WEAK
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO LOITER NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER... WITH LIGHT
CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITH A WEAK MCV OVER THE TX PH AND WRN OK.
BEHIND THE FRONT... A LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/FILL
IN SLOWLY ACROSS KS... IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE H850 FRONT AND
SUPPORT FROM THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NE/KS. ACROSS NRN AND
CENTRAL OK... LOW 70S DPTS CONTINUE TO RESIDE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. 12Z LAMONT SOUNDING IN NRN OK SHOWED FAIRLY DRY MID-
LEVELS... BUT SFC TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THE BL/MID-LVLS WILL
CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE... AS SUPPORTED BY RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE FROM THE NMM AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT
CONTINUITY IN COMPARISON WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS... AND HAVE
OVERALL... HANDLED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SPATIALLY BETTER THAN
TRADITIONAL GUIDANCE.

HOW CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTN WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
IMPACTS FROM THE CURRENT CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT. CURRENT
THOUGHTS ARE... AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES THROUGH 18/19Z...
EXPECT TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM POSSIBLY
AS FAR AS SWRN OK TO PONCA CITY... SIMILAR TO THE RECENT HRRR AND
12Z NMM... THOUGH BOTH ARE MORE THAN LIKELY A TAD BULLISH. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS NRN OK... NEARER THE BETTER FORCING AND
INSTABILITY. DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN... WITH
DCAPE VALUES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OK BY 20-21Z FROM 1500 TO 2000
J/KG... HEFTY VALUES. FREQUENT LIGHTNING... LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN... AND HAIL UP TO GOLF BALLS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL
WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT AS THEY DECREASE AND MOVE TOWARD
THE RED RIVER VALLEY... WHILE A COMPLEX IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS FAR EAST CENTRAL AND ERN OK MOVING SE INTO THE AR OZARKS.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH...ESPECIALLY
NEAR OKC/OUN. THE AFTERNOON TAFS MAY INCLUDE A MENTION OF THESE
GUSTS BUT WILL LEAVE THEM OUT FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES
REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST STORMS. THERE ARE STILL
MANY UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE DURATION OF THE STORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND TSRA MAY NEED TO BE REINTRODUCED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH AT PNC BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
LATE THIS MORNING...WITH MOST OTHER TERMINALS EXPERIENCING
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. CURRENTLY...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL VORT MAX
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT ESE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. ANOTHER AREA
OF ELEVATED MOIST CONVECTION HAS ALSO JUST DEVELOPED ALONG AN
INSTABILITY AXIS SE OF THE OKC METRO. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE BEFORE OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
MAY MANAGE TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO WESTERN OK AND SE/S OK.

LATER TODAY A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL OK. DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR. THE
TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN
OK...AND THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL OK. SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 TO 35
KT AND MLCAPE ~1500-2000 J/KG. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...BUT LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ~7 C/KM. THE STORMS MAY MERGE INTO A SMALL COMPLEX LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS E CENTRAL OK AND MOVE INTO SE OK DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SW OK AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND DRIFT EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE OK. A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY ON THE 4TH OF JULY AS ANOTHER...AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL...MID
TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE REGION SATURDAY AM. RAIN
CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THIS WAVE FOR MOST
OF THE AREA...BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS THE NE/E ZONES AS A WEAKER MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPS THESE ZONES. THE SAME STORY WILL
APPLY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EAST.

THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO NUDGE ITS WAY BACK OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WEST TEXAS MONDAY RESULTING IN WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MOST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER A COLD
FRONT MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS AND INTO SW KS/NW OK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL THEN INCREASE WITH THIS FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPANDING
SOUTHWARD INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL OK TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FINALLY...BY
MIDWEEK...THE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LIMIT ANY LOW POPS TO THE FAR NE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  93  71  88  70 /  40  70  40  50
HOBART OK         91  71  93  70 /  40  50  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  95  75  91  73 /  20  30  50  50
GAGE OK           89  66  89  67 /  50  30  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     92  70  89  68 /  40  30  30  30
DURANT OK         92  73  87  72 /  30  50  70  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/01




000
FXUS64 KTSA 021729
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1229 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE TAF AREA AS SCT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NE
OK...AND IMPACTING THE REMAINING TAF SITES AS STORMS MOVE E-SE
OVERNIGHT. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER 12Z.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL PREVIOUS UPDATES REFLECTED ADJUSTMENTS FOR LINGERING
PRECIP ACROSS SE OK AND WC AR. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
WANE...SO WILL KEEP A LOW POP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE WEAK BOUNDARY THATS CURRENTLY ACROSS NE OK AND SW MO IS
EXPECTED AFTER 21Z. HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS ACCORDINGLY. TEMPS AND
THE REMAINING FIRST PERIOD ELEMENTS LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

UPDATED ZFP/AFM/PFM OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 021703
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1203 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED PRECIP/WX... TEMPS...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CHALLENGING SCENARIO TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE WEAK
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO LOITER NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER... WITH LIGHT
CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITH A WEAK MCV OVER THE TX PH AND WRN OK.
BEHIND THE FRONT... A LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/FILL
IN SLOWLY ACROSS KS... IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE H850 FRONT AND
SUPPORT FROM THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NE/KS. ACROSS NRN AND
CENTRAL OK... LOW 70S DPTS CONTINUE TO RESIDE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. 12Z LAMONT SOUNDING IN NRN OK SHOWED FAIRLY DRY MID-
LEVELS... BUT SFC TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THE BL/MID-LVLS WILL
CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE... AS SUPPORTED BY RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE FROM THE NMM AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT
CONTINUITY IN COMPARISON WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS... AND HAVE
OVERALL... HANDLED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SPATIALLY BETTER THAN
TRADITIONAL GUIDANCE.

HOW CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTN WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
IMPACTS FROM THE CURRENT CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT. CURRENT
THOUGHTS ARE... AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES THROUGH 18/19Z...
EXPECT TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM POSSIBLY
AS FAR AS SWRN OK TO PONCA CITY... SIMILAR TO THE RECENT HRRR AND
12Z NMM... THOUGH BOTH ARE MORE THAN LIKELY A TAD BULLISH. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS NRN OK... NEARER THE BETTER FORCING AND
INSTABILITY. DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN... WITH
DCAPE VALUES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OK BY 20-21Z FROM 1500 TO 2000
J/KG... HEFTY VALUES. FREQUENT LIGHTNING... LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN... AND HAIL UP TO GOLF BALLS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL
WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT AS THEY DECREASE AND MOVE TOWARD
THE RED RIVER VALLEY... WHILE A COMPLEX IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS FAR EAST CENTRAL AND ERN OK MOVING SE INTO THE AR OZARKS.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH...ESPECIALLY
NEAR OKC/OUN. THE AFTERNOON TAFS MAY INCLUDE A MENTION OF THESE
GUSTS BUT WILL LEAVE THEM OUT FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES
REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST STORMS. THERE ARE STILL
MANY UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE DURATION OF THE STORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND TSRA MAY NEED TO BE REINTRODUCED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH AT PNC BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
LATE THIS MORNING...WITH MOST OTHER TERMINALS EXPERIENCING
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. CURRENTLY...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL VORT MAX
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT ESE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. ANOTHER AREA
OF ELEVATED MOIST CONVECTION HAS ALSO JUST DEVELOPED ALONG AN
INSTABILITY AXIS SE OF THE OKC METRO. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE BEFORE OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
MAY MANAGE TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO WESTERN OK AND SE/S OK.

LATER TODAY A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL OK. DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR. THE
TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN
OK...AND THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL OK. SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 TO 35
KT AND MLCAPE ~1500-2000 J/KG. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...BUT LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ~7 C/KM. THE STORMS MAY MERGE INTO A SMALL COMPLEX LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS E CENTRAL OK AND MOVE INTO SE OK DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SW OK AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND DRIFT EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE OK. A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY ON THE 4TH OF JULY AS ANOTHER...AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL...MID
TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE REGION SATURDAY AM. RAIN
CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THIS WAVE FOR MOST
OF THE AREA...BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS THE NE/E ZONES AS A WEAKER MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPS THESE ZONES. THE SAME STORY WILL
APPLY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EAST.

THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO NUDGE ITS WAY BACK OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WEST TEXAS MONDAY RESULTING IN WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MOST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER A COLD
FRONT MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS AND INTO SW KS/NW OK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL THEN INCREASE WITH THIS FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPANDING
SOUTHWARD INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL OK TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FINALLY...BY
MIDWEEK...THE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LIMIT ANY LOW POPS TO THE FAR NE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  93  71  88  70 /  40  70  40  50
HOBART OK         91  71  93  70 /  40  50  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  95  75  91  73 /  20  30  50  50
GAGE OK           89  66  89  67 /  50  30  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     92  70  89  68 /  40  30  30  30
DURANT OK         92  73  87  72 /  30  50  70  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 021703
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1203 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED PRECIP/WX... TEMPS...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CHALLENGING SCENARIO TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE WEAK
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO LOITER NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER... WITH LIGHT
CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITH A WEAK MCV OVER THE TX PH AND WRN OK.
BEHIND THE FRONT... A LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/FILL
IN SLOWLY ACROSS KS... IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE H850 FRONT AND
SUPPORT FROM THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NE/KS. ACROSS NRN AND
CENTRAL OK... LOW 70S DPTS CONTINUE TO RESIDE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. 12Z LAMONT SOUNDING IN NRN OK SHOWED FAIRLY DRY MID-
LEVELS... BUT SFC TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THE BL/MID-LVLS WILL
CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE... AS SUPPORTED BY RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE FROM THE NMM AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT
CONTINUITY IN COMPARISON WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS... AND HAVE
OVERALL... HANDLED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SPATIALLY BETTER THAN
TRADITIONAL GUIDANCE.

HOW CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTN WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
IMPACTS FROM THE CURRENT CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT. CURRENT
THOUGHTS ARE... AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES THROUGH 18/19Z...
EXPECT TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM POSSIBLY
AS FAR AS SWRN OK TO PONCA CITY... SIMILAR TO THE RECENT HRRR AND
12Z NMM... THOUGH BOTH ARE MORE THAN LIKELY A TAD BULLISH. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS NRN OK... NEARER THE BETTER FORCING AND
INSTABILITY. DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN... WITH
DCAPE VALUES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OK BY 20-21Z FROM 1500 TO 2000
J/KG... HEFTY VALUES. FREQUENT LIGHTNING... LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN... AND HAIL UP TO GOLF BALLS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL
WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT AS THEY DECREASE AND MOVE TOWARD
THE RED RIVER VALLEY... WHILE A COMPLEX IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS FAR EAST CENTRAL AND ERN OK MOVING SE INTO THE AR OZARKS.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH...ESPECIALLY
NEAR OKC/OUN. THE AFTERNOON TAFS MAY INCLUDE A MENTION OF THESE
GUSTS BUT WILL LEAVE THEM OUT FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES
REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST STORMS. THERE ARE STILL
MANY UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE DURATION OF THE STORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND TSRA MAY NEED TO BE REINTRODUCED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH AT PNC BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
LATE THIS MORNING...WITH MOST OTHER TERMINALS EXPERIENCING
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. CURRENTLY...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL VORT MAX
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT ESE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. ANOTHER AREA
OF ELEVATED MOIST CONVECTION HAS ALSO JUST DEVELOPED ALONG AN
INSTABILITY AXIS SE OF THE OKC METRO. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE BEFORE OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
MAY MANAGE TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO WESTERN OK AND SE/S OK.

LATER TODAY A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL OK. DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR. THE
TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN
OK...AND THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL OK. SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 TO 35
KT AND MLCAPE ~1500-2000 J/KG. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...BUT LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ~7 C/KM. THE STORMS MAY MERGE INTO A SMALL COMPLEX LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS E CENTRAL OK AND MOVE INTO SE OK DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SW OK AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND DRIFT EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE OK. A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY ON THE 4TH OF JULY AS ANOTHER...AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL...MID
TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE REGION SATURDAY AM. RAIN
CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THIS WAVE FOR MOST
OF THE AREA...BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS THE NE/E ZONES AS A WEAKER MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPS THESE ZONES. THE SAME STORY WILL
APPLY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EAST.

THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO NUDGE ITS WAY BACK OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WEST TEXAS MONDAY RESULTING IN WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MOST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER A COLD
FRONT MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS AND INTO SW KS/NW OK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL THEN INCREASE WITH THIS FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPANDING
SOUTHWARD INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL OK TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FINALLY...BY
MIDWEEK...THE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LIMIT ANY LOW POPS TO THE FAR NE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  93  71  88  70 /  40  70  40  50
HOBART OK         91  71  93  70 /  40  50  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  95  75  91  73 /  20  30  50  50
GAGE OK           89  66  89  67 /  50  30  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     92  70  89  68 /  40  30  30  30
DURANT OK         92  73  87  72 /  30  50  70  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 021703
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1203 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED PRECIP/WX... TEMPS...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CHALLENGING SCENARIO TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE WEAK
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO LOITER NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER... WITH LIGHT
CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITH A WEAK MCV OVER THE TX PH AND WRN OK.
BEHIND THE FRONT... A LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/FILL
IN SLOWLY ACROSS KS... IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE H850 FRONT AND
SUPPORT FROM THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NE/KS. ACROSS NRN AND
CENTRAL OK... LOW 70S DPTS CONTINUE TO RESIDE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. 12Z LAMONT SOUNDING IN NRN OK SHOWED FAIRLY DRY MID-
LEVELS... BUT SFC TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THE BL/MID-LVLS WILL
CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE... AS SUPPORTED BY RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE FROM THE NMM AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT
CONTINUITY IN COMPARISON WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS... AND HAVE
OVERALL... HANDLED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SPATIALLY BETTER THAN
TRADITIONAL GUIDANCE.

HOW CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTN WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
IMPACTS FROM THE CURRENT CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT. CURRENT
THOUGHTS ARE... AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES THROUGH 18/19Z...
EXPECT TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM POSSIBLY
AS FAR AS SWRN OK TO PONCA CITY... SIMILAR TO THE RECENT HRRR AND
12Z NMM... THOUGH BOTH ARE MORE THAN LIKELY A TAD BULLISH. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS NRN OK... NEARER THE BETTER FORCING AND
INSTABILITY. DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN... WITH
DCAPE VALUES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OK BY 20-21Z FROM 1500 TO 2000
J/KG... HEFTY VALUES. FREQUENT LIGHTNING... LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN... AND HAIL UP TO GOLF BALLS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL
WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT AS THEY DECREASE AND MOVE TOWARD
THE RED RIVER VALLEY... WHILE A COMPLEX IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS FAR EAST CENTRAL AND ERN OK MOVING SE INTO THE AR OZARKS.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH...ESPECIALLY
NEAR OKC/OUN. THE AFTERNOON TAFS MAY INCLUDE A MENTION OF THESE
GUSTS BUT WILL LEAVE THEM OUT FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES
REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST STORMS. THERE ARE STILL
MANY UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE DURATION OF THE STORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND TSRA MAY NEED TO BE REINTRODUCED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH AT PNC BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
LATE THIS MORNING...WITH MOST OTHER TERMINALS EXPERIENCING
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. CURRENTLY...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL VORT MAX
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT ESE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. ANOTHER AREA
OF ELEVATED MOIST CONVECTION HAS ALSO JUST DEVELOPED ALONG AN
INSTABILITY AXIS SE OF THE OKC METRO. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE BEFORE OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
MAY MANAGE TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO WESTERN OK AND SE/S OK.

LATER TODAY A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL OK. DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR. THE
TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN
OK...AND THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL OK. SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 TO 35
KT AND MLCAPE ~1500-2000 J/KG. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...BUT LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ~7 C/KM. THE STORMS MAY MERGE INTO A SMALL COMPLEX LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS E CENTRAL OK AND MOVE INTO SE OK DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SW OK AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND DRIFT EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE OK. A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY ON THE 4TH OF JULY AS ANOTHER...AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL...MID
TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE REGION SATURDAY AM. RAIN
CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THIS WAVE FOR MOST
OF THE AREA...BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS THE NE/E ZONES AS A WEAKER MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPS THESE ZONES. THE SAME STORY WILL
APPLY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EAST.

THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO NUDGE ITS WAY BACK OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WEST TEXAS MONDAY RESULTING IN WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MOST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER A COLD
FRONT MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS AND INTO SW KS/NW OK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL THEN INCREASE WITH THIS FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPANDING
SOUTHWARD INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL OK TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FINALLY...BY
MIDWEEK...THE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LIMIT ANY LOW POPS TO THE FAR NE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  93  71  88  70 /  40  70  40  50
HOBART OK         91  71  93  70 /  40  50  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  95  75  91  73 /  20  30  50  50
GAGE OK           89  66  89  67 /  50  30  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     92  70  89  68 /  40  30  30  30
DURANT OK         92  73  87  72 /  30  50  70  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 021703
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1203 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED PRECIP/WX... TEMPS...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CHALLENGING SCENARIO TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE WEAK
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO LOITER NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER... WITH LIGHT
CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITH A WEAK MCV OVER THE TX PH AND WRN OK.
BEHIND THE FRONT... A LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/FILL
IN SLOWLY ACROSS KS... IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE H850 FRONT AND
SUPPORT FROM THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NE/KS. ACROSS NRN AND
CENTRAL OK... LOW 70S DPTS CONTINUE TO RESIDE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. 12Z LAMONT SOUNDING IN NRN OK SHOWED FAIRLY DRY MID-
LEVELS... BUT SFC TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THE BL/MID-LVLS WILL
CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE... AS SUPPORTED BY RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE FROM THE NMM AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT
CONTINUITY IN COMPARISON WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS... AND HAVE
OVERALL... HANDLED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SPATIALLY BETTER THAN
TRADITIONAL GUIDANCE.

HOW CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTN WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
IMPACTS FROM THE CURRENT CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT. CURRENT
THOUGHTS ARE... AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES THROUGH 18/19Z...
EXPECT TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM POSSIBLY
AS FAR AS SWRN OK TO PONCA CITY... SIMILAR TO THE RECENT HRRR AND
12Z NMM... THOUGH BOTH ARE MORE THAN LIKELY A TAD BULLISH. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS NRN OK... NEARER THE BETTER FORCING AND
INSTABILITY. DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN... WITH
DCAPE VALUES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OK BY 20-21Z FROM 1500 TO 2000
J/KG... HEFTY VALUES. FREQUENT LIGHTNING... LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN... AND HAIL UP TO GOLF BALLS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL
WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT AS THEY DECREASE AND MOVE TOWARD
THE RED RIVER VALLEY... WHILE A COMPLEX IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS FAR EAST CENTRAL AND ERN OK MOVING SE INTO THE AR OZARKS.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH...ESPECIALLY
NEAR OKC/OUN. THE AFTERNOON TAFS MAY INCLUDE A MENTION OF THESE
GUSTS BUT WILL LEAVE THEM OUT FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES
REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST STORMS. THERE ARE STILL
MANY UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE DURATION OF THE STORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND TSRA MAY NEED TO BE REINTRODUCED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH AT PNC BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
LATE THIS MORNING...WITH MOST OTHER TERMINALS EXPERIENCING
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. CURRENTLY...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL VORT MAX
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT ESE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. ANOTHER AREA
OF ELEVATED MOIST CONVECTION HAS ALSO JUST DEVELOPED ALONG AN
INSTABILITY AXIS SE OF THE OKC METRO. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE BEFORE OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
MAY MANAGE TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO WESTERN OK AND SE/S OK.

LATER TODAY A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL OK. DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR. THE
TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN
OK...AND THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL OK. SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 TO 35
KT AND MLCAPE ~1500-2000 J/KG. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...BUT LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ~7 C/KM. THE STORMS MAY MERGE INTO A SMALL COMPLEX LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS E CENTRAL OK AND MOVE INTO SE OK DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SW OK AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND DRIFT EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE OK. A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY ON THE 4TH OF JULY AS ANOTHER...AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL...MID
TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE REGION SATURDAY AM. RAIN
CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THIS WAVE FOR MOST
OF THE AREA...BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS THE NE/E ZONES AS A WEAKER MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPS THESE ZONES. THE SAME STORY WILL
APPLY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EAST.

THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO NUDGE ITS WAY BACK OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WEST TEXAS MONDAY RESULTING IN WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MOST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER A COLD
FRONT MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS AND INTO SW KS/NW OK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL THEN INCREASE WITH THIS FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPANDING
SOUTHWARD INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL OK TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FINALLY...BY
MIDWEEK...THE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LIMIT ANY LOW POPS TO THE FAR NE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  93  71  88  70 /  40  70  40  50
HOBART OK         91  71  93  70 /  40  50  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  95  75  91  73 /  20  30  50  50
GAGE OK           89  66  89  67 /  50  30  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     92  70  89  68 /  40  30  30  30
DURANT OK         92  73  87  72 /  30  50  70  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KTSA 021541
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1041 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL PREVIOUS UPDATES REFLECTED ADJUSTMENTS FOR LINGERING
PRECIP ACROSS SE OK AND WC AR. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
WANE...SO WILL KEEP A LOW POP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE WEAK BOUNDARY THATS CURRENTLY ACROSS NE OK AND SW MO IS
EXPECTED AFTER 21Z. HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS ACCORDINGLY. TEMPS AND
THE REMAINING FIRST PERIOD ELEMENTS LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

UPDATED ZFP/AFM/PFM OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....18




000
FXUS64 KTSA 021541
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1041 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL PREVIOUS UPDATES REFLECTED ADJUSTMENTS FOR LINGERING
PRECIP ACROSS SE OK AND WC AR. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
WANE...SO WILL KEEP A LOW POP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE WEAK BOUNDARY THATS CURRENTLY ACROSS NE OK AND SW MO IS
EXPECTED AFTER 21Z. HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS ACCORDINGLY. TEMPS AND
THE REMAINING FIRST PERIOD ELEMENTS LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

UPDATED ZFP/AFM/PFM OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....18



000
FXUS64 KOUN 021141 CCA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
641 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH...ESPECIALLY
NEAR OKC/OUN. THE AFTERNOON TAFS MAY INCLUDE A MENTION OF THESE
GUSTS BUT WILL LEAVE THEM OUT FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES
REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST STORMS. THERE ARE STILL
MANY UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE DURATION OF THE STORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND TSRA MAY NEED TO BE REINTRODUCED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH AT PNC BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
LATE THIS MORNING...WITH MOST OTHER TERMINALS EXPERIENCING
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. CURRENTLY...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL VORT MAX
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT ESE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. ANOTHER AREA
OF ELEVATED MOIST CONVECTION HAS ALSO JUST DEVELOPED ALONG AN
INSTABILITY AXIS SE OF THE OKC METRO. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE BEFORE OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
MAY MANAGE TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO WESTERN OK AND SE/S OK.

LATER TODAY A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL OK. DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR. THE
TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTWESTERN AND WESTERN
OK...AND THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL OK. SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 TO 35
KT AND MLCAPE ~1500-2000 J/KG. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...BUT LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ~7 C/KM. THE STORMS MAY MERGE INTO A SMALL COMPLEX LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS E CENTRAL OK AND MOVE INTO SE OK DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SW OK AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND DRIFT EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE OK. A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY ON THE 4TH OF JULY AS ANOTHER...AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL...MID
TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE REGION SATURDAY AM. RAIN
CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THIS WAVE FOR MOST
OF THE AREA...BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS THE NE/E ZONES AS A WEAKER MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPS THESE ZONES. THE SAME STORY WILL
APPLY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EAST.

THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO NUDGE ITS WAY BACK OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WEST TEXAS MONDAY RESULTING IN WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MOST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER A COLD
FRONT MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS AND INTO SW KS/NW OK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL THEN INCREASE WITH THIS FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPANDING
SOUTHWARD INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL OK TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FINALLY...BY
MIDWEEK...THE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LIMIT ANY LOW POPS TO THE FAR NE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  92  71  88  70 /  40  70  40  50
HOBART OK         93  71  93  70 /  40  50  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  95  75  91  73 /  20  30  50  50
GAGE OK           92  66  89  67 /  50  30  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     91  70  89  68 /  30  30  30  30
DURANT OK         92  73  87  72 /  20  50  70  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/03/03



000
FXUS64 KOUN 021141
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
641 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH...ESPECIALLY
NEAR OKC/OUN. THE AFTERNOON TAFS MAY INCLUDE A MENTION OF THESE
GUSTS BUT WILL LEAVE THEM OUT FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES
REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST STORMS. THERE ARE STILL
MANY UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE DURATION OF THE STORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND TSRA MAY NEED TO BE REINTRODUCED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH AT PNC BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
LATE THIS MORNING...WITH MOST OTHER TERMINALS EXPERIENCING
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. CURRENTLY...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT ESE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
ANOTHER AREA OF ELEVATED MOIST CONVECTION HAS ALSO JUST DEVELOPED
ALONG AN INSTABILITY AXIS SE OF THE OKC METRO. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE...BUT A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY MANAGE TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO WESTERN OK AND
SE/S OK.

LATER TODAY A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL OK. DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR. THE
TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN OK...AND THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL OK.
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND
30 TO 35 KT AND MLCAPE ~1500-2000 J/KG. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS...BUT LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ~7 C/KM. THE STORMS MAY MERGE INTO A SMALL COMPLEX
LATER TONIGHT ACROSS E CENTRAL OK AND MOVE INTO SE OK DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SW OK AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND DRIFT EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE OK. A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY ON THE 4TH OF JULY AS ANOTHER...AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL...MID
TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE REGION SATURDAY AM. RAIN
CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THIS WAVE FOR MOST
OF THE AREA...BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS THE NE/E ZONES AS A WEAKER MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPS THESE ZONES. THE SAME STORY WILL
APPLY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EAST.

THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO NUDGE ITS WAY BACK OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WEST TEXAS MONDAY RESULTING IN WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MOST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER A COLD
FRONT MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS AND INTO SW KS/NW OK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL THEN INCREASE WITH THIS FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPANDING
SOUTHWARD INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL OK TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FINALLY...BY
MIDWEEK...THE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LIMIT ANY LOW POPS TO THE FAR NE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  92  71  88  70 /  40  70  40  50
HOBART OK         93  71  93  70 /  40  50  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  95  75  91  73 /  20  30  50  50
GAGE OK           92  66  89  67 /  50  30  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     91  70  89  68 /  30  30  30  30
DURANT OK         92  73  87  72 /  20  50  70  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/03/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 021141
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
641 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH...ESPECIALLY
NEAR OKC/OUN. THE AFTERNOON TAFS MAY INCLUDE A MENTION OF THESE
GUSTS BUT WILL LEAVE THEM OUT FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES
REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST STORMS. THERE ARE STILL
MANY UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE DURATION OF THE STORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND TSRA MAY NEED TO BE REINTRODUCED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH AT PNC BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
LATE THIS MORNING...WITH MOST OTHER TERMINALS EXPERIENCING
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. CURRENTLY...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT ESE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
ANOTHER AREA OF ELEVATED MOIST CONVECTION HAS ALSO JUST DEVELOPED
ALONG AN INSTABILITY AXIS SE OF THE OKC METRO. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE...BUT A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY MANAGE TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO WESTERN OK AND
SE/S OK.

LATER TODAY A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL OK. DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR. THE
TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN OK...AND THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL OK.
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND
30 TO 35 KT AND MLCAPE ~1500-2000 J/KG. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS...BUT LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ~7 C/KM. THE STORMS MAY MERGE INTO A SMALL COMPLEX
LATER TONIGHT ACROSS E CENTRAL OK AND MOVE INTO SE OK DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SW OK AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND DRIFT EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE OK. A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY ON THE 4TH OF JULY AS ANOTHER...AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL...MID
TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE REGION SATURDAY AM. RAIN
CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THIS WAVE FOR MOST
OF THE AREA...BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS THE NE/E ZONES AS A WEAKER MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPS THESE ZONES. THE SAME STORY WILL
APPLY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EAST.

THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO NUDGE ITS WAY BACK OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WEST TEXAS MONDAY RESULTING IN WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MOST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER A COLD
FRONT MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS AND INTO SW KS/NW OK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL THEN INCREASE WITH THIS FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPANDING
SOUTHWARD INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL OK TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FINALLY...BY
MIDWEEK...THE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LIMIT ANY LOW POPS TO THE FAR NE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  92  71  88  70 /  40  70  40  50
HOBART OK         93  71  93  70 /  40  50  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  95  75  91  73 /  20  30  50  50
GAGE OK           92  66  89  67 /  50  30  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     91  70  89  68 /  30  30  30  30
DURANT OK         92  73  87  72 /  20  50  70  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/03/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 021141
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
641 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH...ESPECIALLY
NEAR OKC/OUN. THE AFTERNOON TAFS MAY INCLUDE A MENTION OF THESE
GUSTS BUT WILL LEAVE THEM OUT FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES
REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST STORMS. THERE ARE STILL
MANY UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE DURATION OF THE STORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND TSRA MAY NEED TO BE REINTRODUCED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH AT PNC BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
LATE THIS MORNING...WITH MOST OTHER TERMINALS EXPERIENCING
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. CURRENTLY...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT ESE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
ANOTHER AREA OF ELEVATED MOIST CONVECTION HAS ALSO JUST DEVELOPED
ALONG AN INSTABILITY AXIS SE OF THE OKC METRO. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE...BUT A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY MANAGE TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO WESTERN OK AND
SE/S OK.

LATER TODAY A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL OK. DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR. THE
TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN OK...AND THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL OK.
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND
30 TO 35 KT AND MLCAPE ~1500-2000 J/KG. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS...BUT LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ~7 C/KM. THE STORMS MAY MERGE INTO A SMALL COMPLEX
LATER TONIGHT ACROSS E CENTRAL OK AND MOVE INTO SE OK DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SW OK AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND DRIFT EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE OK. A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY ON THE 4TH OF JULY AS ANOTHER...AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL...MID
TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE REGION SATURDAY AM. RAIN
CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THIS WAVE FOR MOST
OF THE AREA...BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS THE NE/E ZONES AS A WEAKER MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPS THESE ZONES. THE SAME STORY WILL
APPLY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EAST.

THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO NUDGE ITS WAY BACK OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WEST TEXAS MONDAY RESULTING IN WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MOST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER A COLD
FRONT MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS AND INTO SW KS/NW OK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL THEN INCREASE WITH THIS FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPANDING
SOUTHWARD INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL OK TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FINALLY...BY
MIDWEEK...THE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LIMIT ANY LOW POPS TO THE FAR NE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  92  71  88  70 /  40  70  40  50
HOBART OK         93  71  93  70 /  40  50  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  95  75  91  73 /  20  30  50  50
GAGE OK           92  66  89  67 /  50  30  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     91  70  89  68 /  30  30  30  30
DURANT OK         92  73  87  72 /  20  50  70  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/03/03



000
FXUS64 KOUN 021141 CCA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
641 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH...ESPECIALLY
NEAR OKC/OUN. THE AFTERNOON TAFS MAY INCLUDE A MENTION OF THESE
GUSTS BUT WILL LEAVE THEM OUT FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES
REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST STORMS. THERE ARE STILL
MANY UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE DURATION OF THE STORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND TSRA MAY NEED TO BE REINTRODUCED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH AT PNC BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
LATE THIS MORNING...WITH MOST OTHER TERMINALS EXPERIENCING
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. CURRENTLY...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL VORT MAX
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT ESE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. ANOTHER AREA
OF ELEVATED MOIST CONVECTION HAS ALSO JUST DEVELOPED ALONG AN
INSTABILITY AXIS SE OF THE OKC METRO. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE BEFORE OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
MAY MANAGE TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO WESTERN OK AND SE/S OK.

LATER TODAY A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL OK. DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR. THE
TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTWESTERN AND WESTERN
OK...AND THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL OK. SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 TO 35
KT AND MLCAPE ~1500-2000 J/KG. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...BUT LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ~7 C/KM. THE STORMS MAY MERGE INTO A SMALL COMPLEX LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS E CENTRAL OK AND MOVE INTO SE OK DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SW OK AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND DRIFT EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE OK. A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY ON THE 4TH OF JULY AS ANOTHER...AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL...MID
TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE REGION SATURDAY AM. RAIN
CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THIS WAVE FOR MOST
OF THE AREA...BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS THE NE/E ZONES AS A WEAKER MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPS THESE ZONES. THE SAME STORY WILL
APPLY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EAST.

THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO NUDGE ITS WAY BACK OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WEST TEXAS MONDAY RESULTING IN WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MOST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER A COLD
FRONT MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS AND INTO SW KS/NW OK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL THEN INCREASE WITH THIS FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPANDING
SOUTHWARD INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL OK TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FINALLY...BY
MIDWEEK...THE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LIMIT ANY LOW POPS TO THE FAR NE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  92  71  88  70 /  40  70  40  50
HOBART OK         93  71  93  70 /  40  50  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  95  75  91  73 /  20  30  50  50
GAGE OK           92  66  89  67 /  50  30  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     91  70  89  68 /  30  30  30  30
DURANT OK         92  73  87  72 /  20  50  70  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/03/03



000
FXUS64 KOUN 021141 CCA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
641 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH...ESPECIALLY
NEAR OKC/OUN. THE AFTERNOON TAFS MAY INCLUDE A MENTION OF THESE
GUSTS BUT WILL LEAVE THEM OUT FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES
REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST STORMS. THERE ARE STILL
MANY UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE DURATION OF THE STORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND TSRA MAY NEED TO BE REINTRODUCED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH AT PNC BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
LATE THIS MORNING...WITH MOST OTHER TERMINALS EXPERIENCING
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. CURRENTLY...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL VORT MAX
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT ESE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. ANOTHER AREA
OF ELEVATED MOIST CONVECTION HAS ALSO JUST DEVELOPED ALONG AN
INSTABILITY AXIS SE OF THE OKC METRO. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE BEFORE OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
MAY MANAGE TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO WESTERN OK AND SE/S OK.

LATER TODAY A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL OK. DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR. THE
TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTWESTERN AND WESTERN
OK...AND THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL OK. SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 TO 35
KT AND MLCAPE ~1500-2000 J/KG. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...BUT LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ~7 C/KM. THE STORMS MAY MERGE INTO A SMALL COMPLEX LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS E CENTRAL OK AND MOVE INTO SE OK DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SW OK AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND DRIFT EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE OK. A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY ON THE 4TH OF JULY AS ANOTHER...AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL...MID
TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE REGION SATURDAY AM. RAIN
CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THIS WAVE FOR MOST
OF THE AREA...BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS THE NE/E ZONES AS A WEAKER MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPS THESE ZONES. THE SAME STORY WILL
APPLY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EAST.

THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO NUDGE ITS WAY BACK OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WEST TEXAS MONDAY RESULTING IN WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MOST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER A COLD
FRONT MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS AND INTO SW KS/NW OK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL THEN INCREASE WITH THIS FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPANDING
SOUTHWARD INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL OK TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FINALLY...BY
MIDWEEK...THE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LIMIT ANY LOW POPS TO THE FAR NE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  92  71  88  70 /  40  70  40  50
HOBART OK         93  71  93  70 /  40  50  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  95  75  91  73 /  20  30  50  50
GAGE OK           92  66  89  67 /  50  30  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     91  70  89  68 /  30  30  30  30
DURANT OK         92  73  87  72 /  20  50  70  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/03/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 021141
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
641 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH...ESPECIALLY
NEAR OKC/OUN. THE AFTERNOON TAFS MAY INCLUDE A MENTION OF THESE
GUSTS BUT WILL LEAVE THEM OUT FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES
REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST STORMS. THERE ARE STILL
MANY UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE DURATION OF THE STORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND TSRA MAY NEED TO BE REINTRODUCED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH AT PNC BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
LATE THIS MORNING...WITH MOST OTHER TERMINALS EXPERIENCING
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. CURRENTLY...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT ESE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
ANOTHER AREA OF ELEVATED MOIST CONVECTION HAS ALSO JUST DEVELOPED
ALONG AN INSTABILITY AXIS SE OF THE OKC METRO. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE...BUT A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY MANAGE TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO WESTERN OK AND
SE/S OK.

LATER TODAY A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL OK. DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR. THE
TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN OK...AND THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL OK.
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND
30 TO 35 KT AND MLCAPE ~1500-2000 J/KG. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS...BUT LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ~7 C/KM. THE STORMS MAY MERGE INTO A SMALL COMPLEX
LATER TONIGHT ACROSS E CENTRAL OK AND MOVE INTO SE OK DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SW OK AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND DRIFT EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE OK. A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY ON THE 4TH OF JULY AS ANOTHER...AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL...MID
TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE REGION SATURDAY AM. RAIN
CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THIS WAVE FOR MOST
OF THE AREA...BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS THE NE/E ZONES AS A WEAKER MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPS THESE ZONES. THE SAME STORY WILL
APPLY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EAST.

THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO NUDGE ITS WAY BACK OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WEST TEXAS MONDAY RESULTING IN WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MOST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER A COLD
FRONT MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS AND INTO SW KS/NW OK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL THEN INCREASE WITH THIS FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPANDING
SOUTHWARD INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL OK TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FINALLY...BY
MIDWEEK...THE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LIMIT ANY LOW POPS TO THE FAR NE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  92  71  88  70 /  40  70  40  50
HOBART OK         93  71  93  70 /  40  50  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  95  75  91  73 /  20  30  50  50
GAGE OK           92  66  89  67 /  50  30  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     91  70  89  68 /  30  30  30  30
DURANT OK         92  73  87  72 /  20  50  70  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/03/03



000
FXUS64 KOUN 021141 CCA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
641 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH...ESPECIALLY
NEAR OKC/OUN. THE AFTERNOON TAFS MAY INCLUDE A MENTION OF THESE
GUSTS BUT WILL LEAVE THEM OUT FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES
REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST STORMS. THERE ARE STILL
MANY UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE DURATION OF THE STORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND TSRA MAY NEED TO BE REINTRODUCED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH AT PNC BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
LATE THIS MORNING...WITH MOST OTHER TERMINALS EXPERIENCING
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. CURRENTLY...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL VORT MAX
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT ESE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. ANOTHER AREA
OF ELEVATED MOIST CONVECTION HAS ALSO JUST DEVELOPED ALONG AN
INSTABILITY AXIS SE OF THE OKC METRO. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE BEFORE OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
MAY MANAGE TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO WESTERN OK AND SE/S OK.

LATER TODAY A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL OK. DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR. THE
TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTWESTERN AND WESTERN
OK...AND THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL OK. SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 TO 35
KT AND MLCAPE ~1500-2000 J/KG. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...BUT LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ~7 C/KM. THE STORMS MAY MERGE INTO A SMALL COMPLEX LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS E CENTRAL OK AND MOVE INTO SE OK DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SW OK AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND DRIFT EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE OK. A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY ON THE 4TH OF JULY AS ANOTHER...AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL...MID
TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE REGION SATURDAY AM. RAIN
CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THIS WAVE FOR MOST
OF THE AREA...BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS THE NE/E ZONES AS A WEAKER MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPS THESE ZONES. THE SAME STORY WILL
APPLY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EAST.

THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO NUDGE ITS WAY BACK OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WEST TEXAS MONDAY RESULTING IN WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MOST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER A COLD
FRONT MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS AND INTO SW KS/NW OK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL THEN INCREASE WITH THIS FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPANDING
SOUTHWARD INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL OK TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FINALLY...BY
MIDWEEK...THE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LIMIT ANY LOW POPS TO THE FAR NE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  92  71  88  70 /  40  70  40  50
HOBART OK         93  71  93  70 /  40  50  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  95  75  91  73 /  20  30  50  50
GAGE OK           92  66  89  67 /  50  30  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     91  70  89  68 /  30  30  30  30
DURANT OK         92  73  87  72 /  20  50  70  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/03/03




000
FXUS64 KTSA 021115
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
615 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. A SCATTERED LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING MAY AFFECT
KMLC AND KFSM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION... THERE WILL
BE A THREAT OF MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ONGOING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
WILL CLIP FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING AS ADVERTISED.
FURTHER WEST...WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WILL
ALLOW SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR
BOUNDARY WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND/OR
REDEVELOP TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS INITIALLY UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA.

SECONDARY UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS/
HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY WITH...YOU GUESSED IT...LINGERING
PRECIP CHANCES.

ALTHOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION OF HEAVIER RAINFALL SWATHS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL CERTAINLY BE A THREAT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND
2 INCHES. THE FLOODING THREAT WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED IN ANY
LOCATIONS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS.

WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THIS COULD BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER AS YET ANOTHER UPPER SHORT WAVE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06



000
FXUS64 KTSA 021115
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
615 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. A SCATTERED LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING MAY AFFECT
KMLC AND KFSM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION... THERE WILL
BE A THREAT OF MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ONGOING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
WILL CLIP FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING AS ADVERTISED.
FURTHER WEST...WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WILL
ALLOW SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR
BOUNDARY WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND/OR
REDEVELOP TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS INITIALLY UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA.

SECONDARY UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS/
HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY WITH...YOU GUESSED IT...LINGERING
PRECIP CHANCES.

ALTHOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION OF HEAVIER RAINFALL SWATHS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL CERTAINLY BE A THREAT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND
2 INCHES. THE FLOODING THREAT WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED IN ANY
LOCATIONS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS.

WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THIS COULD BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER AS YET ANOTHER UPPER SHORT WAVE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06




000
FXUS64 KTSA 021115
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
615 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. A SCATTERED LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING MAY AFFECT
KMLC AND KFSM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION... THERE WILL
BE A THREAT OF MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ONGOING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
WILL CLIP FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING AS ADVERTISED.
FURTHER WEST...WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WILL
ALLOW SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR
BOUNDARY WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND/OR
REDEVELOP TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS INITIALLY UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA.

SECONDARY UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS/
HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY WITH...YOU GUESSED IT...LINGERING
PRECIP CHANCES.

ALTHOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION OF HEAVIER RAINFALL SWATHS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL CERTAINLY BE A THREAT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND
2 INCHES. THE FLOODING THREAT WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED IN ANY
LOCATIONS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS.

WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THIS COULD BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER AS YET ANOTHER UPPER SHORT WAVE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06



000
FXUS64 KTSA 021115
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
615 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. A SCATTERED LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING MAY AFFECT
KMLC AND KFSM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION... THERE WILL
BE A THREAT OF MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ONGOING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
WILL CLIP FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING AS ADVERTISED.
FURTHER WEST...WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WILL
ALLOW SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR
BOUNDARY WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND/OR
REDEVELOP TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS INITIALLY UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA.

SECONDARY UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS/
HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY WITH...YOU GUESSED IT...LINGERING
PRECIP CHANCES.

ALTHOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION OF HEAVIER RAINFALL SWATHS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL CERTAINLY BE A THREAT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND
2 INCHES. THE FLOODING THREAT WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED IN ANY
LOCATIONS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS.

WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THIS COULD BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER AS YET ANOTHER UPPER SHORT WAVE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06




000
FXUS64 KOUN 020905
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
405 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. CURRENTLY...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT ESE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
ANOTHER AREA OF ELEVATED MOIST CONVECTION HAS ALSO JUST DEVELOPED
ALONG AN INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR AXIS SE OF THE OKC
METRO. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE OR JUST AFTER
SUNRISE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY MANAGE TO MAKE THEIR WAY
INTO WESTERN OK AND SE/S OK.

LATER TODAY A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL OK. DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR. THE
TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN OK...AND THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL OK.
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND
30 TO 35 KT AND MLCAPE ~1500-2000 J/KG. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS...BUT LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ~7 C/KM. THE STORMS MAY MERGE INTO A SMALL COMPLEX
LATER TONIGHT ACROSS E CENTRAL OK AND MOVE INTO SE OK DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SW OK AND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND DRIFT EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE OK. A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY ON THE 4TH OF JULY AS ANOTHER...AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL...MID
TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE REGION SATURDAY AM. RAIN
CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THIS WAVE FOR MOST
OF THE AREA...BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS THE NE/E ZONES AS A WEAKER MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPS THESE ZONES. THE SAME STORY WILL
APPLY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EAST.

THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO NUDGE ITS WAY BACK OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WEST TEXAS MONDAY RESULTING IN WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MOST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER A COLD
FRONT MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS AND INTO SW KS/NW OK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL THEN INCREASE WITH THIS FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPANDING
SOUTHWARD INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL OK TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FINALLY...BY
MIDWEEK...THE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LIMIT ANY LOW POPS TO THE FAR NE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  92  71  88  70 /  40  70  40  50
HOBART OK         93  71  93  70 /  30  50  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  95  75  91  73 /  20  30  50  50
GAGE OK           92  66  89  67 /  50  30  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     91  70  89  68 /  30  30  30  30
DURANT OK         92  73  87  72 /  10  50  70  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/03




000
FXUS64 KTSA 020805
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
305 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONGOING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
WILL CLIP FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING AS ADVERTISED.
FURTHER WEST...WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WILL
ALLOW SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR
BOUNDARY WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND/OR
REDEVELOP TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS INITIALLY UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA.

SECONDARY UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS/
HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY WITH...YOU GUESSED IT...LINGERING
PRECIP CHANCES.

ALTHOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION OF HEAVIER RAINFALL SWATHS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL CERTAINLY BE A THREAT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND
2 INCHES. THE FLOODING THREAT WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED IN ANY
LOCATIONS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS.

WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THIS COULD BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER AS YET ANOTHER UPPER SHORT WAVE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   93  72  87  71 /  50  60  60  50
FSM   92  75  84  70 /  50  70  70  60
MLC   90  72  84  69 /  50  70  60  60
BVO   91  68  86  68 /  40  50  50  40
FYV   86  68  83  66 /  50  60  60  50
BYV   87  67  83  66 /  60  60  60  50
MKO   91  72  85  69 /  50  70  70  50
MIO   89  68  86  68 /  40  40  60  40
F10   90  72  85  69 /  50  70  70  60
HHW   91  73  85  70 /  10  40  60  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....12




000
FXUS64 KTSA 020805
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
305 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONGOING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
WILL CLIP FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING AS ADVERTISED.
FURTHER WEST...WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WILL
ALLOW SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR
BOUNDARY WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND/OR
REDEVELOP TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS INITIALLY UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA.

SECONDARY UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS/
HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY WITH...YOU GUESSED IT...LINGERING
PRECIP CHANCES.

ALTHOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION OF HEAVIER RAINFALL SWATHS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL CERTAINLY BE A THREAT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND
2 INCHES. THE FLOODING THREAT WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED IN ANY
LOCATIONS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS.

WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THIS COULD BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER AS YET ANOTHER UPPER SHORT WAVE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   93  72  87  71 /  50  60  60  50
FSM   92  75  84  70 /  50  70  70  60
MLC   90  72  84  69 /  50  70  60  60
BVO   91  68  86  68 /  40  50  50  40
FYV   86  68  83  66 /  50  60  60  50
BYV   87  67  83  66 /  60  60  60  50
MKO   91  72  85  69 /  50  70  70  50
MIO   89  68  86  68 /  40  40  60  40
F10   90  72  85  69 /  50  70  70  60
HHW   91  73  85  70 /  10  40  60  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....12



000
FXUS64 KTSA 020805
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
305 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONGOING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
WILL CLIP FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING AS ADVERTISED.
FURTHER WEST...WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WILL
ALLOW SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR
BOUNDARY WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND/OR
REDEVELOP TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS INITIALLY UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA.

SECONDARY UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS/
HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY WITH...YOU GUESSED IT...LINGERING
PRECIP CHANCES.

ALTHOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION OF HEAVIER RAINFALL SWATHS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL CERTAINLY BE A THREAT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND
2 INCHES. THE FLOODING THREAT WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED IN ANY
LOCATIONS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS.

WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THIS COULD BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER AS YET ANOTHER UPPER SHORT WAVE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   93  72  87  71 /  50  60  60  50
FSM   92  75  84  70 /  50  70  70  60
MLC   90  72  84  69 /  50  70  60  60
BVO   91  68  86  68 /  40  50  50  40
FYV   86  68  83  66 /  50  60  60  50
BYV   87  67  83  66 /  60  60  60  50
MKO   91  72  85  69 /  50  70  70  50
MIO   89  68  86  68 /  40  40  60  40
F10   90  72  85  69 /  50  70  70  60
HHW   91  73  85  70 /  10  40  60  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....12



000
FXUS64 KTSA 020805
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
305 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONGOING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
WILL CLIP FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING AS ADVERTISED.
FURTHER WEST...WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WILL
ALLOW SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR
BOUNDARY WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND/OR
REDEVELOP TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS INITIALLY UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA.

SECONDARY UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS/
HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY WITH...YOU GUESSED IT...LINGERING
PRECIP CHANCES.

ALTHOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION OF HEAVIER RAINFALL SWATHS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL CERTAINLY BE A THREAT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND
2 INCHES. THE FLOODING THREAT WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED IN ANY
LOCATIONS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS.

WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THIS COULD BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER AS YET ANOTHER UPPER SHORT WAVE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   93  72  87  71 /  50  60  60  50
FSM   92  75  84  70 /  50  70  70  60
MLC   90  72  84  69 /  50  70  60  60
BVO   91  68  86  68 /  40  50  50  40
FYV   86  68  83  66 /  50  60  60  50
BYV   87  67  83  66 /  60  60  60  50
MKO   91  72  85  69 /  50  70  70  50
MIO   89  68  86  68 /  40  40  60  40
F10   90  72  85  69 /  50  70  70  60
HHW   91  73  85  70 /  10  40  60  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....12




000
FXUS64 KOUN 020522
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1222 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL APPLY TONIGHT...BUT MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL/SE OK BEFORE
SUNRISE THIS MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A
MENTION RIGHT NOW. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG A FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OK AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  92  71  88  70 /  40  70  50  50
HOBART OK         93  71  93  70 /  20  60  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  95  75  93  73 /  10  40  30  30
GAGE OK           91  67  89  68 /  40  50  20  40
PONCA CITY OK     94  69  89  69 /  50  60  40  40
DURANT OK         92  73  87  72 /  10  50  60  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/03/03



000
FXUS64 KOUN 020522
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1222 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL APPLY TONIGHT...BUT MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL/SE OK BEFORE
SUNRISE THIS MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A
MENTION RIGHT NOW. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG A FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OK AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  92  71  88  70 /  40  70  50  50
HOBART OK         93  71  93  70 /  20  60  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  95  75  93  73 /  10  40  30  30
GAGE OK           91  67  89  68 /  40  50  20  40
PONCA CITY OK     94  69  89  69 /  50  60  40  40
DURANT OK         92  73  87  72 /  10  50  60  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/03/03




000
FXUS64 KTSA 020453
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1153 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MCS ACTIVITY
APPROACHES THE REGION. SOME OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO
POTENTIALLY REACH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND WILL CARRY VCTS/TEMPO
GROUPS FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
INTO THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE COMMON FOR MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY PRECIP.
ALSO...BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY AND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AT 02Z...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NWRN OK THEN NEWRD INTO WEST CENTRAL MO. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN NORTH CENTRAL OK WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ACROSS MO. SHORT-TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP OVER SERN KS ALONG
BOUNDARY LATER THIS EVENING AS ACTIVITY OVER MO AND NORTH CENTRAL OK
PROPAGATES SEWRD OVERNIGHT. AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH HEIGHT FALLS SUGGESTED
OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING CONVERGENCE ON
LEADING FLANK OF SOUTHWARD PROPAGATING STORMS...BELIEVE THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MOVES INTO NERN OK AND NWRN AR
TONIGHT. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WX/QPF
ACCORDINGLY WITH HIGHEST POPS THIS EVENING WRN OSAGE/PAWNEE COUNTIES
AND LATER TONIGHT ACROSS CARROLL/MADISON COUNTIES IN NWRN AR. UPDATED
PRODUCTS ALREADY ISSUED...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  93  72  86 /  20  50  60  50
FSM   75  92  75  83 /  20  50  70  70
MLC   75  90  72  81 /  20  50  70  70
BVO   75  90  68  85 /  20  40  50  40
FYV   73  86  68  80 /  30  50  60  70
BYV   74  87  67  81 /  50  50  60  60
MKO   73  91  72  83 /  20  50  70  70
MIO   75  89  66  84 /  30  40  40  50
F10   75  90  72  81 /  20  50  70  70
HHW   72  91  73  80 /  10  10  40  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20



000
FXUS64 KTSA 020453
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1153 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MCS ACTIVITY
APPROACHES THE REGION. SOME OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO
POTENTIALLY REACH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND WILL CARRY VCTS/TEMPO
GROUPS FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
INTO THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE COMMON FOR MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY PRECIP.
ALSO...BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY AND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AT 02Z...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NWRN OK THEN NEWRD INTO WEST CENTRAL MO. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN NORTH CENTRAL OK WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ACROSS MO. SHORT-TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP OVER SERN KS ALONG
BOUNDARY LATER THIS EVENING AS ACTIVITY OVER MO AND NORTH CENTRAL OK
PROPAGATES SEWRD OVERNIGHT. AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH HEIGHT FALLS SUGGESTED
OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING CONVERGENCE ON
LEADING FLANK OF SOUTHWARD PROPAGATING STORMS...BELIEVE THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MOVES INTO NERN OK AND NWRN AR
TONIGHT. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WX/QPF
ACCORDINGLY WITH HIGHEST POPS THIS EVENING WRN OSAGE/PAWNEE COUNTIES
AND LATER TONIGHT ACROSS CARROLL/MADISON COUNTIES IN NWRN AR. UPDATED
PRODUCTS ALREADY ISSUED...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  93  72  86 /  20  50  60  50
FSM   75  92  75  83 /  20  50  70  70
MLC   75  90  72  81 /  20  50  70  70
BVO   75  90  68  85 /  20  40  50  40
FYV   73  86  68  80 /  30  50  60  70
BYV   74  87  67  81 /  50  50  60  60
MKO   73  91  72  83 /  20  50  70  70
MIO   75  89  66  84 /  30  40  40  50
F10   75  90  72  81 /  20  50  70  70
HHW   72  91  73  80 /  10  10  40  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20



000
FXUS64 KTSA 020453
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1153 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MCS ACTIVITY
APPROACHES THE REGION. SOME OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO
POTENTIALLY REACH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND WILL CARRY VCTS/TEMPO
GROUPS FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
INTO THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE COMMON FOR MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY PRECIP.
ALSO...BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY AND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AT 02Z...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NWRN OK THEN NEWRD INTO WEST CENTRAL MO. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN NORTH CENTRAL OK WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ACROSS MO. SHORT-TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP OVER SERN KS ALONG
BOUNDARY LATER THIS EVENING AS ACTIVITY OVER MO AND NORTH CENTRAL OK
PROPAGATES SEWRD OVERNIGHT. AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH HEIGHT FALLS SUGGESTED
OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING CONVERGENCE ON
LEADING FLANK OF SOUTHWARD PROPAGATING STORMS...BELIEVE THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MOVES INTO NERN OK AND NWRN AR
TONIGHT. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WX/QPF
ACCORDINGLY WITH HIGHEST POPS THIS EVENING WRN OSAGE/PAWNEE COUNTIES
AND LATER TONIGHT ACROSS CARROLL/MADISON COUNTIES IN NWRN AR. UPDATED
PRODUCTS ALREADY ISSUED...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  93  72  86 /  20  50  60  50
FSM   75  92  75  83 /  20  50  70  70
MLC   75  90  72  81 /  20  50  70  70
BVO   75  90  68  85 /  20  40  50  40
FYV   73  86  68  80 /  30  50  60  70
BYV   74  87  67  81 /  50  50  60  60
MKO   73  91  72  83 /  20  50  70  70
MIO   75  89  66  84 /  30  40  40  50
F10   75  90  72  81 /  20  50  70  70
HHW   72  91  73  80 /  10  10  40  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20



000
FXUS64 KTSA 020453
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1153 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MCS ACTIVITY
APPROACHES THE REGION. SOME OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO
POTENTIALLY REACH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND WILL CARRY VCTS/TEMPO
GROUPS FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
INTO THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE COMMON FOR MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY PRECIP.
ALSO...BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY AND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AT 02Z...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NWRN OK THEN NEWRD INTO WEST CENTRAL MO. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN NORTH CENTRAL OK WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ACROSS MO. SHORT-TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP OVER SERN KS ALONG
BOUNDARY LATER THIS EVENING AS ACTIVITY OVER MO AND NORTH CENTRAL OK
PROPAGATES SEWRD OVERNIGHT. AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH HEIGHT FALLS SUGGESTED
OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING CONVERGENCE ON
LEADING FLANK OF SOUTHWARD PROPAGATING STORMS...BELIEVE THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MOVES INTO NERN OK AND NWRN AR
TONIGHT. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WX/QPF
ACCORDINGLY WITH HIGHEST POPS THIS EVENING WRN OSAGE/PAWNEE COUNTIES
AND LATER TONIGHT ACROSS CARROLL/MADISON COUNTIES IN NWRN AR. UPDATED
PRODUCTS ALREADY ISSUED...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  93  72  86 /  20  50  60  50
FSM   75  92  75  83 /  20  50  70  70
MLC   75  90  72  81 /  20  50  70  70
BVO   75  90  68  85 /  20  40  50  40
FYV   73  86  68  80 /  30  50  60  70
BYV   74  87  67  81 /  50  50  60  60
MKO   73  91  72  83 /  20  50  70  70
MIO   75  89  66  84 /  30  40  40  50
F10   75  90  72  81 /  20  50  70  70
HHW   72  91  73  80 /  10  10  40  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20



000
FXUS64 KTSA 020208
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
908 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AT 02Z...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NWRN OK THEN NEWRD INTO WEST CENTRAL MO. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN NORTH CENTRAL OK WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ACROSS MO. SHORT-TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP OVER SERN KS ALONG
BOUNDARY LATER THIS EVENING AS ACTIVITY OVER MO AND NORTH CENTRAL OK
PROPAGATES SEWRD OVERNIGHT. AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH HEIGHT FALLS SUGGESTED
OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING CONVERGENCE ON
LEADING FLANK OF SOUTHWARD PROPAGATING STORMS...BELIEVE THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MOVES INTO NERN OK AND NWRN AR
TONIGHT. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WX/QPF
ACCORDINGLY WITH HIGHEST POPS THIS EVENING WRN OSAGE/PAWNEE COUNTIES
AND LATER TONIGHT ACROSS CARROLL/MADISON COUNTIES IN NWRN AR. UPDATED
PRODUCTS ALREADY ISSUED...

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69



000
FXUS64 KTSA 020208
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
908 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AT 02Z...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NWRN OK THEN NEWRD INTO WEST CENTRAL MO. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN NORTH CENTRAL OK WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ACROSS MO. SHORT-TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP OVER SERN KS ALONG
BOUNDARY LATER THIS EVENING AS ACTIVITY OVER MO AND NORTH CENTRAL OK
PROPAGATES SEWRD OVERNIGHT. AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH HEIGHT FALLS SUGGESTED
OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING CONVERGENCE ON
LEADING FLANK OF SOUTHWARD PROPAGATING STORMS...BELIEVE THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MOVES INTO NERN OK AND NWRN AR
TONIGHT. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WX/QPF
ACCORDINGLY WITH HIGHEST POPS THIS EVENING WRN OSAGE/PAWNEE COUNTIES
AND LATER TONIGHT ACROSS CARROLL/MADISON COUNTIES IN NWRN AR. UPDATED
PRODUCTS ALREADY ISSUED...

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69



000
FXUS64 KTSA 020208
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
908 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AT 02Z...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NWRN OK THEN NEWRD INTO WEST CENTRAL MO. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN NORTH CENTRAL OK WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ACROSS MO. SHORT-TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP OVER SERN KS ALONG
BOUNDARY LATER THIS EVENING AS ACTIVITY OVER MO AND NORTH CENTRAL OK
PROPAGATES SEWRD OVERNIGHT. AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH HEIGHT FALLS SUGGESTED
OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING CONVERGENCE ON
LEADING FLANK OF SOUTHWARD PROPAGATING STORMS...BELIEVE THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MOVES INTO NERN OK AND NWRN AR
TONIGHT. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WX/QPF
ACCORDINGLY WITH HIGHEST POPS THIS EVENING WRN OSAGE/PAWNEE COUNTIES
AND LATER TONIGHT ACROSS CARROLL/MADISON COUNTIES IN NWRN AR. UPDATED
PRODUCTS ALREADY ISSUED...

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69



000
FXUS64 KTSA 020208
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
908 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AT 02Z...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NWRN OK THEN NEWRD INTO WEST CENTRAL MO. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN NORTH CENTRAL OK WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ACROSS MO. SHORT-TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP OVER SERN KS ALONG
BOUNDARY LATER THIS EVENING AS ACTIVITY OVER MO AND NORTH CENTRAL OK
PROPAGATES SEWRD OVERNIGHT. AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH HEIGHT FALLS SUGGESTED
OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING CONVERGENCE ON
LEADING FLANK OF SOUTHWARD PROPAGATING STORMS...BELIEVE THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MOVES INTO NERN OK AND NWRN AR
TONIGHT. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WX/QPF
ACCORDINGLY WITH HIGHEST POPS THIS EVENING WRN OSAGE/PAWNEE COUNTIES
AND LATER TONIGHT ACROSS CARROLL/MADISON COUNTIES IN NWRN AR. UPDATED
PRODUCTS ALREADY ISSUED...

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69



000
FXUS64 KTSA 020208
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
908 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AT 02Z...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NWRN OK THEN NEWRD INTO WEST CENTRAL MO. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN NORTH CENTRAL OK WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ACROSS MO. SHORT-TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP OVER SERN KS ALONG
BOUNDARY LATER THIS EVENING AS ACTIVITY OVER MO AND NORTH CENTRAL OK
PROPAGATES SEWRD OVERNIGHT. AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH HEIGHT FALLS SUGGESTED
OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING CONVERGENCE ON
LEADING FLANK OF SOUTHWARD PROPAGATING STORMS...BELIEVE THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MOVES INTO NERN OK AND NWRN AR
TONIGHT. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WX/QPF
ACCORDINGLY WITH HIGHEST POPS THIS EVENING WRN OSAGE/PAWNEE COUNTIES
AND LATER TONIGHT ACROSS CARROLL/MADISON COUNTIES IN NWRN AR. UPDATED
PRODUCTS ALREADY ISSUED...

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69



000
FXUS64 KTSA 012351
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
651 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
COULD POTENTIALLY REACH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BECOME POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. BREEZY WINDS SHIFTING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SHOULD CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
COMMON THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
ANY PRECIP.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL KS WITH AN ATTENDANT
WEAK FRONT EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL MO. WEAK CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
BUBBLE NEAR NEAR THIS BOUNDARY AND EXPECT SOME STRENGTHENING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH COULD HAVE SOME A FEW
SHOWER/STORMS DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF EASTERN OK/NORTHWEST AR LATER
TONIGHT AS ZONE OF BEST LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHIFTS SOUTH.

12Z GUIDANCE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT BRINGING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
COMBINATION OF THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL
ALLOW FOR VIGOROUS LATE-AFTERNOON CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD STRETCH ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF
OK AND INTO AR. IMPROVING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-45KTS AND HIGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE
ACTIVITY SAGGING SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN AS WELL THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH PW
VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES.

PERIODIC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...AS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PERSISTS AND WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...AND AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE MAINLY NEAR THE KS/OK AND MO/AR BORDERS...CLOSEST TO THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WEAK WESTERLY UPPER FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  93  70  87 /  20  60  60  50
FSM   75  93  74  83 /  20  40  60  70
MLC   75  92  73  83 /  20  30  70  70
BVO   75  91  69  87 /  20  50  50  40
FYV   73  86  67  81 /  30  60  60  60
BYV   74  86  67  81 /  30  50  50  60
MKO   73  90  70  84 /  20  50  60  60
MIO   75  91  67  86 /  30  40  40  40
F10   75  92  72  83 /  20  40  70  60
HHW   72  91  73  84 /  10  10  60  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20




000
FXUS64 KTSA 012351
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
651 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
COULD POTENTIALLY REACH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BECOME POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. BREEZY WINDS SHIFTING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SHOULD CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
COMMON THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
ANY PRECIP.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL KS WITH AN ATTENDANT
WEAK FRONT EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL MO. WEAK CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
BUBBLE NEAR NEAR THIS BOUNDARY AND EXPECT SOME STRENGTHENING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH COULD HAVE SOME A FEW
SHOWER/STORMS DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF EASTERN OK/NORTHWEST AR LATER
TONIGHT AS ZONE OF BEST LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHIFTS SOUTH.

12Z GUIDANCE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT BRINGING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
COMBINATION OF THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL
ALLOW FOR VIGOROUS LATE-AFTERNOON CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD STRETCH ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF
OK AND INTO AR. IMPROVING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-45KTS AND HIGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE
ACTIVITY SAGGING SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN AS WELL THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH PW
VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES.

PERIODIC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...AS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PERSISTS AND WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...AND AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE MAINLY NEAR THE KS/OK AND MO/AR BORDERS...CLOSEST TO THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WEAK WESTERLY UPPER FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  93  70  87 /  20  60  60  50
FSM   75  93  74  83 /  20  40  60  70
MLC   75  92  73  83 /  20  30  70  70
BVO   75  91  69  87 /  20  50  50  40
FYV   73  86  67  81 /  30  60  60  60
BYV   74  86  67  81 /  30  50  50  60
MKO   73  90  70  84 /  20  50  60  60
MIO   75  91  67  86 /  30  40  40  40
F10   75  92  72  83 /  20  40  70  60
HHW   72  91  73  84 /  10  10  60  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20




000
FXUS64 KTSA 012351
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
651 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
COULD POTENTIALLY REACH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BECOME POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. BREEZY WINDS SHIFTING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SHOULD CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
COMMON THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
ANY PRECIP.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL KS WITH AN ATTENDANT
WEAK FRONT EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL MO. WEAK CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
BUBBLE NEAR NEAR THIS BOUNDARY AND EXPECT SOME STRENGTHENING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH COULD HAVE SOME A FEW
SHOWER/STORMS DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF EASTERN OK/NORTHWEST AR LATER
TONIGHT AS ZONE OF BEST LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHIFTS SOUTH.

12Z GUIDANCE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT BRINGING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
COMBINATION OF THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL
ALLOW FOR VIGOROUS LATE-AFTERNOON CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD STRETCH ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF
OK AND INTO AR. IMPROVING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-45KTS AND HIGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE
ACTIVITY SAGGING SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN AS WELL THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH PW
VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES.

PERIODIC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...AS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PERSISTS AND WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...AND AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE MAINLY NEAR THE KS/OK AND MO/AR BORDERS...CLOSEST TO THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WEAK WESTERLY UPPER FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  93  70  87 /  20  60  60  50
FSM   75  93  74  83 /  20  40  60  70
MLC   75  92  73  83 /  20  30  70  70
BVO   75  91  69  87 /  20  50  50  40
FYV   73  86  67  81 /  30  60  60  60
BYV   74  86  67  81 /  30  50  50  60
MKO   73  90  70  84 /  20  50  60  60
MIO   75  91  67  86 /  30  40  40  40
F10   75  92  72  83 /  20  40  70  60
HHW   72  91  73  84 /  10  10  60  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20




000
FXUS64 KTSA 012351
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
651 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
COULD POTENTIALLY REACH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BECOME POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. BREEZY WINDS SHIFTING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SHOULD CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
COMMON THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
ANY PRECIP.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL KS WITH AN ATTENDANT
WEAK FRONT EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL MO. WEAK CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
BUBBLE NEAR NEAR THIS BOUNDARY AND EXPECT SOME STRENGTHENING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH COULD HAVE SOME A FEW
SHOWER/STORMS DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF EASTERN OK/NORTHWEST AR LATER
TONIGHT AS ZONE OF BEST LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHIFTS SOUTH.

12Z GUIDANCE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT BRINGING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
COMBINATION OF THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL
ALLOW FOR VIGOROUS LATE-AFTERNOON CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD STRETCH ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF
OK AND INTO AR. IMPROVING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-45KTS AND HIGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE
ACTIVITY SAGGING SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN AS WELL THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH PW
VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES.

PERIODIC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...AS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PERSISTS AND WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...AND AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE MAINLY NEAR THE KS/OK AND MO/AR BORDERS...CLOSEST TO THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WEAK WESTERLY UPPER FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  93  70  87 /  20  60  60  50
FSM   75  93  74  83 /  20  40  60  70
MLC   75  92  73  83 /  20  30  70  70
BVO   75  91  69  87 /  20  50  50  40
FYV   73  86  67  81 /  30  60  60  60
BYV   74  86  67  81 /  30  50  50  60
MKO   73  90  70  84 /  20  50  60  60
MIO   75  91  67  86 /  30  40  40  40
F10   75  92  72  83 /  20  40  70  60
HHW   72  91  73  84 /  10  10  60  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20




000
FXUS64 KTSA 012351
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
651 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
COULD POTENTIALLY REACH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BECOME POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. BREEZY WINDS SHIFTING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SHOULD CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
COMMON THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
ANY PRECIP.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL KS WITH AN ATTENDANT
WEAK FRONT EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL MO. WEAK CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
BUBBLE NEAR NEAR THIS BOUNDARY AND EXPECT SOME STRENGTHENING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH COULD HAVE SOME A FEW
SHOWER/STORMS DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF EASTERN OK/NORTHWEST AR LATER
TONIGHT AS ZONE OF BEST LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHIFTS SOUTH.

12Z GUIDANCE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT BRINGING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
COMBINATION OF THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL
ALLOW FOR VIGOROUS LATE-AFTERNOON CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD STRETCH ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF
OK AND INTO AR. IMPROVING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-45KTS AND HIGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE
ACTIVITY SAGGING SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN AS WELL THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH PW
VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES.

PERIODIC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...AS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PERSISTS AND WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...AND AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE MAINLY NEAR THE KS/OK AND MO/AR BORDERS...CLOSEST TO THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WEAK WESTERLY UPPER FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  93  70  87 /  20  60  60  50
FSM   75  93  74  83 /  20  40  60  70
MLC   75  92  73  83 /  20  30  70  70
BVO   75  91  69  87 /  20  50  50  40
FYV   73  86  67  81 /  30  60  60  60
BYV   74  86  67  81 /  30  50  50  60
MKO   73  90  70  84 /  20  50  60  60
MIO   75  91  67  86 /  30  40  40  40
F10   75  92  72  83 /  20  40  70  60
HHW   72  91  73  84 /  10  10  60  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20




000
FXUS64 KTSA 012351
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
651 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
COULD POTENTIALLY REACH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BECOME POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. BREEZY WINDS SHIFTING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SHOULD CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
COMMON THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
ANY PRECIP.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL KS WITH AN ATTENDANT
WEAK FRONT EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL MO. WEAK CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
BUBBLE NEAR NEAR THIS BOUNDARY AND EXPECT SOME STRENGTHENING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH COULD HAVE SOME A FEW
SHOWER/STORMS DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF EASTERN OK/NORTHWEST AR LATER
TONIGHT AS ZONE OF BEST LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHIFTS SOUTH.

12Z GUIDANCE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT BRINGING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
COMBINATION OF THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL
ALLOW FOR VIGOROUS LATE-AFTERNOON CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD STRETCH ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF
OK AND INTO AR. IMPROVING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-45KTS AND HIGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE
ACTIVITY SAGGING SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN AS WELL THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH PW
VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES.

PERIODIC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...AS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PERSISTS AND WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...AND AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE MAINLY NEAR THE KS/OK AND MO/AR BORDERS...CLOSEST TO THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WEAK WESTERLY UPPER FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  93  70  87 /  20  60  60  50
FSM   75  93  74  83 /  20  40  60  70
MLC   75  92  73  83 /  20  30  70  70
BVO   75  91  69  87 /  20  50  50  40
FYV   73  86  67  81 /  30  60  60  60
BYV   74  86  67  81 /  30  50  50  60
MKO   73  90  70  84 /  20  50  60  60
MIO   75  91  67  86 /  30  40  40  40
F10   75  92  72  83 /  20  40  70  60
HHW   72  91  73  84 /  10  10  60  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20



000
FXUS64 KOUN 012331
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
631 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...ASIDE FROM A VERY LOW CHANCE OF A STRAY SHRA/TSRA AT
KGAG/KWWR...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD. A WEAK WIND SHIFT WILL RESULT IN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
FROM KGAG/KWWR TO KPNC BY EARLY THURS. ELSEWHERE...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE. FROM 18Z ONWARD TOMORROW...SCT TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE MOST ANYWHERE FROM I-40 NORTH. GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS. THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...WILL
INTRODUCE PROB30 FOR NORTHERN/CENTRAL OK TERMINALS.

AUSTIN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT EXTENDED FROM NEAR WICHITA KANSAS TO
BUFFALO OKLAHOMA AND PERRYTON TEXAS AT 4 PM. DRIER AIR WAS
NORTHWEST OF THIS LINE...WHILE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUED
TO THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING IN SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...AND POSSIBLY INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

FOR THIS EVENING...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...EXCEPT THAT THE SHOWERS MAY EXTEND FARTHER SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT...AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TOMORROW...BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
RAIN/STORMS. FROM TOMORROW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE
RAIN/STORMS WERE A FEW HOURS EARLIER.

THE ARRIVAL OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES...AND THEREFORE CLOUDS...WILL
REDUCE THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...ENDING OUR NEAR-HEAT-ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  92  71  88 /  20  40  70  50
HOBART OK         75  93  71  93 /  10  20  60  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  76  95  75  93 /  10  10  40  30
GAGE OK           71  91  67  89 /  20  40  50  20
PONCA CITY OK     78  94  69  89 /  20  50  60  40
DURANT OK         73  92  73  87 /  10  10  50  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/84



000
FXUS64 KOUN 012109
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
409 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT EXTENDED FROM NEAR WICHITA KANSAS TO
BUFFALO OKLAHOMA AND PERRYTON TEXAS AT 4 PM. DRIER AIR WAS
NORTHWEST OF THIS LINE...WHILE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUED
TO THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING IN SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...AND POSSIBLY INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

FOR THIS EVENING...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...EXCEPT THAT THE SHOWERS MAY EXTEND FARTHER SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT...AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TOMORROW...BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
RAIN/STORMS. FROM TOMORROW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE
RAIN/STORMS WERE A FEW HOURS EARLIER.

THE ARRIVAL OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES...AND THEREFORE CLOUDS...WILL
REDUCE THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...ENDING OUR NEAR-HEAT-ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  92  71  88 /  20  40  70  50
HOBART OK         75  93  71  93 /  10  20  60  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  76  95  75  93 /  10  10  40  30
GAGE OK           71  91  67  89 /  20  40  50  20
PONCA CITY OK     78  94  69  89 /  20  50  60  40
DURANT OK         73  92  73  87 /  10  10  50  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/23



000
FXUS64 KOUN 012109
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
409 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT EXTENDED FROM NEAR WICHITA KANSAS TO
BUFFALO OKLAHOMA AND PERRYTON TEXAS AT 4 PM. DRIER AIR WAS
NORTHWEST OF THIS LINE...WHILE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUED
TO THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING IN SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...AND POSSIBLY INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

FOR THIS EVENING...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...EXCEPT THAT THE SHOWERS MAY EXTEND FARTHER SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT...AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TOMORROW...BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
RAIN/STORMS. FROM TOMORROW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE
RAIN/STORMS WERE A FEW HOURS EARLIER.

THE ARRIVAL OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES...AND THEREFORE CLOUDS...WILL
REDUCE THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...ENDING OUR NEAR-HEAT-ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  92  71  88 /  20  40  70  50
HOBART OK         75  93  71  93 /  10  20  60  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  76  95  75  93 /  10  10  40  30
GAGE OK           71  91  67  89 /  20  40  50  20
PONCA CITY OK     78  94  69  89 /  20  50  60  40
DURANT OK         73  92  73  87 /  10  10  50  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 011943
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
243 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL KS WITH AN ATTENDANT
WEAK FRONT EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL MO. WEAK CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
BUBBLE NEAR NEAR THIS BOUNDARY AND EXPECT SOME STRENGTHENING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH COULD HAVE SOME A FEW
SHOWER/STORMS DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF EASTERN OK/NORTHWEST AR LATER
TONIGHT AS ZONE OF BEST LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHIFTS SOUTH.

12Z GUIDANCE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT BRINGING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
COMBINATION OF THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL
ALLOW FOR VIGOROUS LATE-AFTERNOON CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD STRETCH ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF
OK AND INTO AR. IMPROVING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-45KTS AND HIGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE
ACTIVITY SAGGING SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN AS WELL THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH PW
VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES.

PERIODIC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...AS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PERSISTS AND WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...AND AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE MAINLY NEAR THE KS/OK AND MO/AR BORDERS...CLOSEST TO THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WEAK WESTERLY UPPER FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  93  70  87 /  20  60  60  50
FSM   75  93  74  83 /  20  40  60  70
MLC   75  92  73  83 /  20  30  70  70
BVO   73  91  68  87 /  20  50  50  40
FYV   73  86  67  81 /  30  60  60  60
BYV   74  86  67  81 /  30  50  50  60
MKO   73  90  70  84 /  20  50  60  60
MIO   75  91  67  86 /  30  40  40  40
F10   75  92  72  83 /  20  40  70  60
HHW   72  91  73  84 /  10  10  60  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....18




000
FXUS64 KTSA 011943
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
243 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL KS WITH AN ATTENDANT
WEAK FRONT EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL MO. WEAK CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
BUBBLE NEAR NEAR THIS BOUNDARY AND EXPECT SOME STRENGTHENING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH COULD HAVE SOME A FEW
SHOWER/STORMS DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF EASTERN OK/NORTHWEST AR LATER
TONIGHT AS ZONE OF BEST LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHIFTS SOUTH.

12Z GUIDANCE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT BRINGING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
COMBINATION OF THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL
ALLOW FOR VIGOROUS LATE-AFTERNOON CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD STRETCH ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF
OK AND INTO AR. IMPROVING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-45KTS AND HIGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE
ACTIVITY SAGGING SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN AS WELL THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH PW
VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES.

PERIODIC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...AS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PERSISTS AND WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...AND AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE MAINLY NEAR THE KS/OK AND MO/AR BORDERS...CLOSEST TO THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WEAK WESTERLY UPPER FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  93  70  87 /  20  60  60  50
FSM   75  93  74  83 /  20  40  60  70
MLC   75  92  73  83 /  20  30  70  70
BVO   73  91  68  87 /  20  50  50  40
FYV   73  86  67  81 /  30  60  60  60
BYV   74  86  67  81 /  30  50  50  60
MKO   73  90  70  84 /  20  50  60  60
MIO   75  91  67  86 /  30  40  40  40
F10   75  92  72  83 /  20  40  70  60
HHW   72  91  73  84 /  10  10  60  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....18




000
FXUS64 KTSA 011943
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
243 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL KS WITH AN ATTENDANT
WEAK FRONT EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL MO. WEAK CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
BUBBLE NEAR NEAR THIS BOUNDARY AND EXPECT SOME STRENGTHENING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH COULD HAVE SOME A FEW
SHOWER/STORMS DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF EASTERN OK/NORTHWEST AR LATER
TONIGHT AS ZONE OF BEST LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHIFTS SOUTH.

12Z GUIDANCE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT BRINGING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
COMBINATION OF THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL
ALLOW FOR VIGOROUS LATE-AFTERNOON CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD STRETCH ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF
OK AND INTO AR. IMPROVING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-45KTS AND HIGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE
ACTIVITY SAGGING SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN AS WELL THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH PW
VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES.

PERIODIC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...AS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PERSISTS AND WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...AND AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE MAINLY NEAR THE KS/OK AND MO/AR BORDERS...CLOSEST TO THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WEAK WESTERLY UPPER FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  93  70  87 /  20  60  60  50
FSM   75  93  74  83 /  20  40  60  70
MLC   75  92  73  83 /  20  30  70  70
BVO   73  91  68  87 /  20  50  50  40
FYV   73  86  67  81 /  30  60  60  60
BYV   74  86  67  81 /  30  50  50  60
MKO   73  90  70  84 /  20  50  60  60
MIO   75  91  67  86 /  30  40  40  40
F10   75  92  72  83 /  20  40  70  60
HHW   72  91  73  84 /  10  10  60  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....18




000
FXUS64 KTSA 011943
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
243 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL KS WITH AN ATTENDANT
WEAK FRONT EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL MO. WEAK CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
BUBBLE NEAR NEAR THIS BOUNDARY AND EXPECT SOME STRENGTHENING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH COULD HAVE SOME A FEW
SHOWER/STORMS DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF EASTERN OK/NORTHWEST AR LATER
TONIGHT AS ZONE OF BEST LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHIFTS SOUTH.

12Z GUIDANCE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT BRINGING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
COMBINATION OF THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL
ALLOW FOR VIGOROUS LATE-AFTERNOON CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD STRETCH ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF
OK AND INTO AR. IMPROVING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-45KTS AND HIGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE
ACTIVITY SAGGING SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN AS WELL THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH PW
VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES.

PERIODIC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...AS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PERSISTS AND WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...AND AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE MAINLY NEAR THE KS/OK AND MO/AR BORDERS...CLOSEST TO THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WEAK WESTERLY UPPER FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  93  70  87 /  20  60  60  50
FSM   75  93  74  83 /  20  40  60  70
MLC   75  92  73  83 /  20  30  70  70
BVO   73  91  68  87 /  20  50  50  40
FYV   73  86  67  81 /  30  60  60  60
BYV   74  86  67  81 /  30  50  50  60
MKO   73  90  70  84 /  20  50  60  60
MIO   75  91  67  86 /  30  40  40  40
F10   75  92  72  83 /  20  40  70  60
HHW   72  91  73  84 /  10  10  60  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....18




000
FXUS64 KOUN 011827
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
127 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIMIT TSRA DEVELOPMENT TODAY...BUT
A FEW TSRA ARE POSSIBLE IN N OK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
SHORT-RANGE MODELS SUGGEST TSRA MAY DRIFT S INTO CENTRAL OK
OVERNIGHT BEFORE DYING OUT. ADDITIONAL TSRA MAY OCCUR BEFORE 18Z
TOMORROW...MAINLY IN N OK. IN NO CASE IS THE CHANCE FOR TSRA HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. A WIND SHIFT WILL ENTER N
OK TOMORROW MORNING...BUT THE MAIN EFFECT AT KGAG/KWWR/KPNC WILL
BE TO CAUSE LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS.

CMS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  95  75  92  71 /   0  20  40  60
HOBART OK         97  75  93  71 /   0  20  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  76  95  75 /   0  10  10  40
GAGE OK           99  71  91  67 /  10  20  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     99  78  94  69 /  10  20  60  50
DURANT OK         92  73  92  73 /   0  10  10  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/23/23



000
FXUS64 KOUN 011827
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
127 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIMIT TSRA DEVELOPMENT TODAY...BUT
A FEW TSRA ARE POSSIBLE IN N OK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
SHORT-RANGE MODELS SUGGEST TSRA MAY DRIFT S INTO CENTRAL OK
OVERNIGHT BEFORE DYING OUT. ADDITIONAL TSRA MAY OCCUR BEFORE 18Z
TOMORROW...MAINLY IN N OK. IN NO CASE IS THE CHANCE FOR TSRA HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. A WIND SHIFT WILL ENTER N
OK TOMORROW MORNING...BUT THE MAIN EFFECT AT KGAG/KWWR/KPNC WILL
BE TO CAUSE LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS.

CMS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  95  75  92  71 /   0  20  40  60
HOBART OK         97  75  93  71 /   0  20  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  76  95  75 /   0  10  10  40
GAGE OK           99  71  91  67 /  10  20  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     99  78  94  69 /  10  20  60  50
DURANT OK         92  73  92  73 /   0  10  10  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/23/23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 011722
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1222 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO LIMITED FOR INCLUSION
AT THE NE OK/NW AR TAF SITES.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1039 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED ZONES AT THIS TIME REFLECT SMALL POP ADJUSTMENTS ACROSS
THE NE OK AND NW AR ZONES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FIRST PERIOD.
MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY CONDITIONS AS WELL. WILL LEAVE
TEMPS ALONE AT THIS TIME...BUT A LATER UPDATE ADDRESSING TEMPS MAY
BE REQUIRED SHOULD CLOUD COVER PERSIST ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR.

UPDATED ZFP/PFM/AFM ALREADY SENT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 011722
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1222 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO LIMITED FOR INCLUSION
AT THE NE OK/NW AR TAF SITES.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1039 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED ZONES AT THIS TIME REFLECT SMALL POP ADJUSTMENTS ACROSS
THE NE OK AND NW AR ZONES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FIRST PERIOD.
MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY CONDITIONS AS WELL. WILL LEAVE
TEMPS ALONE AT THIS TIME...BUT A LATER UPDATE ADDRESSING TEMPS MAY
BE REQUIRED SHOULD CLOUD COVER PERSIST ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR.

UPDATED ZFP/PFM/AFM ALREADY SENT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23



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