Home > Products > State Listing > Oklahoma Data
Latest:
 AFDOUN |  AFDTSA |
  [top]

000
FXUS64 KTSA 310445
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1145 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE SOUTH AND AFFECT MAINLY THE
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TAF SITES WITH MVFR CEILINGS FOR A FEW HOURS
FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. NORTH
WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS FRIDAY...BUT WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WERE COMMON
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING IN THE
WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT EXITING THE CWA. TO THE NORTH...A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS WAS MOVING
SOUTHWARD WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS...SCATTERED TO OVERCAST LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND A COOLER AIRMASS FILTERING IN BEHIND. THIS
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD
PUSH AND REACH THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THE SCATTERED TO OVERCAST LOW CEILINGS COULD ALSO
REACH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FRIDAY
MORNING. THUS FOR EVENING UPDATE...WILL ADJUST SKY AND WIND GRIDS
BASED ON THESE TRENDS AND TO ADD MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
WELL AS MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT.

THIS COLDER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY...AND WITH
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS LOWS SATURDAY
CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPS AT/BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE CURRENT FREEZE HEADLINES AS IS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ053.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05





  [top]

000
FXUS64 KOUN 310348
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1048 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES.
NORTH WINDS WILL GUST THROUGHOUT CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING
AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. WINDS WILL DECREASE
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 909 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. THIS WILL BRING SOMEWHAT COOLER...AND MUCH
DRIER...AIR INTO THE REGION...SETTING UP A VERY COOL NIGHT
TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME. NO CHANGES ARE
PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

AVIATION...
LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES.
NORTH WINDS WILL GUST THROUGHOUT CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING
AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A COOL DOWN IS ON THE WAY! A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE HASTE
SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON..RESULTING IN BREEZY NORTH WINDS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-44. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT THE REAL COLD AIR WILL TAKE A BIT MORE TIME TO
ARRIVE...SLIDING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

AS COLD AIR SETTLES INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...AND WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...THE
STAGE APPEARS TO BE SET FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT.
RECENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST FREEZING OR NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...THOUGH
UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN IN TERMS OF HOW FAR SOUTH THE MORE WIDESPREAD
FREEZING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. IN KEEPING WITH SLIGHTLY
COLDER GUIDANCE...WILL EXPAND THE FREEZE WATCH SOUTH AND
WEST...AND ADD A FEW MORE COUNTIES TO THE GOING FREEZE WARNING.
THE REAL IMPACT HERE WILL BE TO SENSITIVE PLANTS...SO GET THOSE IN
BEFORE YOU HIT THE HAY FRIDAY NIGHT.

COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS COLD
AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESUME LATE
SATURDAY...AND THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS WELL ABOVE FREEZING
SATURDAY NIGHT. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
HANDLING A LARGE UPPER CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO INTERACT WITH A SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...BRINGING BENEFICIAL RAINS TO MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. WHILE SOME HEAVY RAIN THREAT SEEMS TO EXIST...PINPOINTING
EXACT LOCATIONS/AMOUNTS WOULD BE IRRESPONSIBLE AT THIS TIME. JUST
KNOW YOU CAN EXPECT A CLOUDY...COOL...AND LIKELY WET MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
LOOK TO RESUME.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  45  58  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         43  61  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  46  65  33  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           37  57  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     41  53  27  56 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         48  64  33  58 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ005>008-
     011>013-018>020-026.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ004-009-010-014>017-021>025-027>032-035-038>043-046>048-
     051-052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 310348
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1048 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES.
NORTH WINDS WILL GUST THROUGHOUT CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING
AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. WINDS WILL DECREASE
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 909 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. THIS WILL BRING SOMEWHAT COOLER...AND MUCH
DRIER...AIR INTO THE REGION...SETTING UP A VERY COOL NIGHT
TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME. NO CHANGES ARE
PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

AVIATION...
LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES.
NORTH WINDS WILL GUST THROUGHOUT CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING
AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A COOL DOWN IS ON THE WAY! A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE HASTE
SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON..RESULTING IN BREEZY NORTH WINDS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-44. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT THE REAL COLD AIR WILL TAKE A BIT MORE TIME TO
ARRIVE...SLIDING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

AS COLD AIR SETTLES INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...AND WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...THE
STAGE APPEARS TO BE SET FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT.
RECENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST FREEZING OR NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...THOUGH
UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN IN TERMS OF HOW FAR SOUTH THE MORE WIDESPREAD
FREEZING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. IN KEEPING WITH SLIGHTLY
COLDER GUIDANCE...WILL EXPAND THE FREEZE WATCH SOUTH AND
WEST...AND ADD A FEW MORE COUNTIES TO THE GOING FREEZE WARNING.
THE REAL IMPACT HERE WILL BE TO SENSITIVE PLANTS...SO GET THOSE IN
BEFORE YOU HIT THE HAY FRIDAY NIGHT.

COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS COLD
AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESUME LATE
SATURDAY...AND THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS WELL ABOVE FREEZING
SATURDAY NIGHT. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
HANDLING A LARGE UPPER CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO INTERACT WITH A SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...BRINGING BENEFICIAL RAINS TO MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. WHILE SOME HEAVY RAIN THREAT SEEMS TO EXIST...PINPOINTING
EXACT LOCATIONS/AMOUNTS WOULD BE IRRESPONSIBLE AT THIS TIME. JUST
KNOW YOU CAN EXPECT A CLOUDY...COOL...AND LIKELY WET MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
LOOK TO RESUME.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  45  58  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         43  61  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  46  65  33  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           37  57  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     41  53  27  56 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         48  64  33  58 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ005>008-
     011>013-018>020-026.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ004-009-010-014>017-021>025-027>032-035-038>043-046>048-
     051-052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/23/23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 310234
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
934 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WERE COMMON
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING IN THE
WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT EXITING THE CWA. TO THE NORTH...A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS WAS MOVING
SOUTHWARD WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS...SCATTERED TO OVERCAST LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND A COOLER AIRMASS FILTERING IN BEHIND. THIS
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD
PUSH AND REACH THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THE SCATTERED TO OVERCAST LOW CEILINGS COULD ALSO
REACH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FRIDAY
MORNING. THUS FOR EVENING UPDATE...WILL ADJUST SKY AND WIND GRIDS
BASED ON THESE TRENDS AND TO ADD MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
WELL AS MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT.

THIS COLDER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY...AND WITH
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS LOWS SATURDAY
CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPS AT/BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE CURRENT FREEZE HEADLINES AS IS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   44  54  28  55 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   46  58  28  56 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   48  59  29  56 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   40  50  23  54 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   40  49  22  53 /   0  10   0   0
BYV   43  48  24  52 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   45  55  27  55 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   42  49  23  54 /   0   0   0   0
F10   47  55  28  56 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   46  62  32  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ053.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
AVIATION.....05






000
FXUS64 KOUN 310209
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
909 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. THIS WILL BRING SOMEWHAT COOLER...AND MUCH
DRIER...AIR INTO THE REGION...SETTING UP A VERY COOL NIGHT
TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME. NO CHANGES ARE
PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

AVIATION...
LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES.
NORTH WINDS WILL GUST THROUGHOUT CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING
AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A COOL DOWN IS ON THE WAY! A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE HASTE
SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON..RESULTING IN BREEZY NORTH WINDS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-44. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT THE REAL COLD AIR WILL TAKE A BIT MORE TIME TO
ARRIVE...SLIDING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

AS COLD AIR SETTLES INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...AND WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...THE
STAGE APPEARS TO BE SET FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT.
RECENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST FREEZING OR NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...THOUGH
UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN IN TERMS OF HOW FAR SOUTH THE MORE WIDESPREAD
FREEZING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. IN KEEPING WITH SLIGHTLY
COLDER GUIDANCE...WILL EXPAND THE FREEZE WATCH SOUTH AND
WEST...AND ADD A FEW MORE COUNTIES TO THE GOING FREEZE WARNING.
THE REAL IMPACT HERE WILL BE TO SENSITIVE PLANTS...SO GET THOSE IN
BEFORE YOU HIT THE HAY FRIDAY NIGHT.

COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS COLD
AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESUME LATE
SATURDAY...AND THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS WELL ABOVE FREEZING
SATURDAY NIGHT. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
HANDLING A LARGE UPPER CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO INTERACT WITH A SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...BRINGING BENEFICIAL RAINS TO MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. WHILE SOME HEAVY RAIN THREAT SEEMS TO EXIST...PINPOINTING
EXACT LOCATIONS/AMOUNTS WOULD BE IRRESPONSIBLE AT THIS TIME. JUST
KNOW YOU CAN EXPECT A CLOUDY...COOL...AND LIKELY WET MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
LOOK TO RESUME.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  45  58  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         43  61  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  46  65  33  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           37  57  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     41  53  27  56 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         48  64  33  58 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ005>008-
     011>013-018>020-026.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ004-009-010-014>017-021>025-027>032-035-038>043-046>048-
     051-052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 310009
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
709 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES.
NORTH WINDS WILL GUST THROUGHOUT CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING
AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A COOL DOWN IS ON THE WAY! A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE HASTE
SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON..RESULTING IN BREEZY NORTH WINDS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-44. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT THE REAL COLD AIR WILL TAKE A BIT MORE TIME TO
ARRIVE...SLIDING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

AS COLD AIR SETTLES INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...AND WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...THE
STAGE APPEARS TO BE SET FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT.
RECENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST FREEZING OR NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...THOUGH
UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN IN TERMS OF HOW FAR SOUTH THE MORE WIDESPREAD
FREEZING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. IN KEEPING WITH SLIGHTLY
COLDER GUIDANCE...WILL EXPAND THE FREEZE WATCH SOUTH AND
WEST...AND ADD A FEW MORE COUNTIES TO THE GOING FREEZE WARNING.
THE REAL IMPACT HERE WILL BE TO SENSITIVE PLANTS...SO GET THOSE IN
BEFORE YOU HIT THE HAY FRIDAY NIGHT.

COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS COLD
AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESUME LATE
SATURDAY...AND THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS WELL ABOVE FREEZING
SATURDAY NIGHT. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
HANDLING A LARGE UPPER CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO INTERACT WITH A SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...BRINGING BENEFICIAL RAINS TO MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. WHILE SOME HEAVY RAIN THREAT SEEMS TO EXIST...PINPOINTING
EXACT LOCATIONS/AMOUNTS WOULD BE IRRESPONSIBLE AT THIS TIME. JUST
KNOW YOU CAN EXPECT A CLOUDY...COOL...AND LIKELY WET MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
LOOK TO RESUME.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  45  58  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         43  61  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  46  65  33  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           37  57  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     41  53  27  56 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         48  64  33  58 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ005>008-
     011>013-018>020-026.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ004-009-010-014>017-021>025-027>032-035-038>043-046>048-
     051-052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/09/09




000
FXUS64 KTSA 302323
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
623 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WRAPAROUND LOW CLOUDS MAY AFFECT MAINLY THE
ARKANSAS TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NORTHEAST OK AND INTO EXTREME NW
ARKANSAS AT PRESENT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY
USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS. COLDEST AIR CONTINUES
TO LAG WELL BEHIND INITIAL WIND SHIFT BUT WILL BE FELT BY EARLY
FRIDAY...TEMPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL U.S. IN THE 30S RIGHT NOW.
THIS WILL LEAD TO THE FIRST FREEZE IN MUCH OF THE AREA BY SAT
MORNING AS SFC RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED RIGHT OVER E OK/W AR...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT FREEZE LIKELY FOR ALL BUT PORTIONS OF FAR SE
OKLAHOMA. TEMP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LOWS IN THE 20S AND
ALSO HAS TRENDED A LITTLE COLDER WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN. THIS
LENDS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO EXPAND FREEZE WARNING TO ALL BUT
CHOCTAW COUNTY...WHERE A WATCH WILL BE ISSUED...BUT NEAR FREEZING
TEMPS LIKELY THERE AS WELL.

SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EAST BY SUNDAY WITH A MILDER NIGHT SAT
NIGHT...THOUGH A FEW SHELTERED VALLEYS MAY AGAIN DROP TO NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING. DEEP PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHEAST OVER
THE AREA BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WELL ABOVE CLIMO FOR EARLY NOVEMBER BY
THIS TIME WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCH TOTALS EXPECTED MON-TUE. SYSTEM
WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST BY WED.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ053.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05






000
FXUS64 KTSA 302022
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
322 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NORTHEAST OK AND INTO EXTREME NW
ARKANSAS AT PRESENT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY
USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS. COLDEST AIR CONTINUES
TO LAG WELL BEHIND INITIAL WIND SHIFT BUT WILL BE FELT BY EARLY
FRIDAY...TEMPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL U.S. IN THE 30S RIGHT NOW.
THIS WILL LEAD TO THE FIRST FREEZE IN MUCH OF THE AREA BY SAT
MORNING AS SFC RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED RIGHT OVER E OK/W AR...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT FREEZE LIKELY FOR ALL BUT PORTIONS OF FAR SE
OKLAHOMA. TEMP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LOWS IN THE 20S AND
ALSO HAS TRENDED A LITTLE COLDER WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN. THIS
LENDS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO EXPAND FREEZE WARNING TO ALL BUT
CHOCTAW COUNTY...WHERE A WATCH WILL BE ISSUED...BUT NEAR FREEZING
TEMPS LIKELY THERE AS WELL.

SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EAST BY SUNDAY WITH A MILDER NIGHT SAT
NIGHT...THOUGH A FEW SHELTERED VALLEYS MAY AGAIN DROP TO NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING. DEEP PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHEAST OVER
THE AREA BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WELL ABOVE CLIMO FOR EARLY NOVEMBER BY
THIS TIME WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCH TOTALS EXPECTED MON-TUE. SYSTEM
WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST BY WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   44  54  28  55 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   46  58  28  56 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   48  59  29  56 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   40  50  23  54 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   40  49  22  53 /   0  10   0   0
BYV   43  48  24  52 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   45  55  27  55 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   42  49  23  54 /   0   0   0   0
F10   47  55  28  56 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   46  62  32  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ053.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....14








000
FXUS64 KOUN 302009
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
309 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A COOL DOWN IS ON THE WAY! A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE HASTE
SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON..RESULTING IN BREEZY NORTH WINDS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-44. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT THE REAL COLD AIR WILL TAKE A BIT MORE TIME TO
ARRIVE...SLIDING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

AS COLD AIR SETTLES INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...AND WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...THE
STAGE APPEARS TO BE SET FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT.
RECENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST FREEZING OR NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...THOUGH
UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN IN TERMS OF HOW FAR SOUTH THE MORE WIDESPREAD
FREEZING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. IN KEEPING WITH SLIGHTLY
COLDER GUIDANCE...WILL EXPAND THE FREEZE WATCH SOUTH AND
WEST...AND ADD A FEW MORE COUNTIES TO THE GOING FREEZE WARNING.
THE REAL IMPACT HERE WILL BE TO SENSITIVE PLANTS...SO GET THOSE IN
BEFORE YOU HIT THE HAY FRIDAY NIGHT.

COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS COLD
AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESUME LATE
SATURDAY...AND THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS WELL ABOVE FREEZING
SATURDAY NIGHT. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
HANDLING A LARGE UPPER CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO INTERACT WITH A SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...BRINGING BENEFICIAL RAINS TO MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. WHILE SOME HEAVY RAIN THREAT SEEMS TO EXIST...PINPOINTING
EXACT LOCATIONS/AMOUNTS WOULD BE IRRESPONSIBLE AT THIS TIME. JUST
KNOW YOU CAN EXPECT A CLOUDY...COOL...AND LIKELY WET MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
LOOK TO RESUME.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  45  58  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         43  61  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  46  65  33  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           37  57  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     41  53  27  56 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         48  64  33  58 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ005>008-
     011>013-018>020-026.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ004-009-010-014>017-021>025-027>032-035-038>043-046>048-
     051-052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 301938 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
238 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATES TO PRECIP/WX THROUGH THE AFTN...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE CU FIELD ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTN... AND A FEW SHOWERS FINALLY POPPED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
RED RIVER EAST OF WICHITA FALLS THROUGH 2PM. ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY... AS PREVIOUS PRECIP/WX FORECAST WAS A TAD TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE OVERALL AREA. EXPECT ONGOING SHOWERS TO
PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET. QUICK LOOK AT BUFR SOUNDING FROM KSPS...
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED... AND THE ENVIRONMENT WILL ONLY BE
SUPPORTED FOR A BRIEF WINDOW BEFORE THE FRONT ADVANCES S/SE. NO
LIGHTNING INDICATED WITH THIS INITIAL CONVECTION AND SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1201 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF SITES
LEAVING GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND IT. WINDS SHOULD LESSEN OVERNIGHT
BEFORE BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES.

14

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 718 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR WILL APPLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. THEY WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KT AFTER
SUNSET. A FEW CIGS AROUND 040 WILL IMPACT PNC EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  45  59  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         43  60  33  61 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  47  65  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           37  57  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     42  55  27  57 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         49  64  34  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ005-006-011-012-017>019-023>032.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ007-008-
     013-020.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/84




000
FXUS64 KTSA 301713
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1213 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SE OK AND WC AR. ANY -RA/-TSRA
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN TOO LOW FOR TAF INCLUSION. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
GUSTY W-NW WINDS APPROACHING 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AREA WIDE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1209 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AFTERNOON ZONES REFLECT SHIFTING LOW POPS FURTHER SOUTH
WITH THE BOUNDARY. LOWERED AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS ACROSS NE OK AND NW
BEHIND FRONT BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND ADJUSTED SKY CONDITION.
REST OF FIRST PERIOD ELEMENTS LEFT AS THEY ARE.

UPDATED ZFP/PFM/AFM ALREADY SENT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ065-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ019-
     ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$


AVIATION...23






000
FXUS64 KTSA 301709
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1209 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AFTERNOON ZONES REFLECT SHIFTING LOW POPS FURTHER SOUTH
WITH THE BOUNDARY. LOWERED AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS ACROSS NE OK AND NW
BEHIND FRONT BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND ADJUSTED SKY CONDITION.
REST OF FIRST PERIOD ELEMENTS LEFT AS THEY ARE.

UPDATED ZFP/PFM/AFM ALREADY SENT.



&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ065-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ019-
     ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....14







000
FXUS64 KOUN 301701
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1201 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF SITES
LEAVING GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND IT. WINDS SHOULD LESSEN OVERNIGHT
BEFORE BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 718 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR WILL APPLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. THEY WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KT AFTER
SUNSET. A FEW CIGS AROUND 040 WILL IMPACT PNC EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  45  59  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         43  60  33  61 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  47  65  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           37  57  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     42  55  27  57 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         49  64  34  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ005-006-011-012-017>019-023>032.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ007-008-
     013-020.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/84/14




000
FXUS64 KOUN 301701
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1201 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF SITES
LEAVING GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND IT. WINDS SHOULD LESSEN OVERNIGHT
BEFORE BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 718 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR WILL APPLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. THEY WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KT AFTER
SUNSET. A FEW CIGS AROUND 040 WILL IMPACT PNC EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  45  59  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         43  60  33  61 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  47  65  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           37  57  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     42  55  27  57 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         49  64  34  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ005-006-011-012-017>019-023>032.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ007-008-
     013-020.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/84/14




000
FXUS64 KTSA 301528
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1028 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PREVIOUS UPDATE REFLECTED ADDING POPS AND INCREASING
CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS FAR NE OK/ NW AR. COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY...WITH MOST SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE
CONFINED TO THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. AT A MINIMUM...A
LATER UPDATE WILL BE REQUIRED TO AMEND TEMPORAL WORDING FROM THE
ZONE TEXT...SO WILL ADDRESS OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS SHOULD THEY BE
REQUIRED AT THAT TIME.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ065-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ019-
     ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....14






000
FXUS64 KOUN 301218
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
718 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL APPLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. THEY WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KT AFTER
SUNSET. A FEW CIGS AROUND 040 WILL IMPACT PNC EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  45  59  32 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         75  43  60  33 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  80  47  65  34 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           72  37  57  32 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     73  42  55  27 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         77  49  64  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ005-006-011-012-017>019-023>032.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ007-008-
     013-020.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/03/03




000
FXUS64 KTSA 301106
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
606 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...

..HARD FREEZE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
   NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...

ANOTHER NICE/MILD DAY EXPECTED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER CONDITIONS INTO
FRIDAY AS GUSTY NORTH WINDS INCREASE. FIRST SIGNIFICANT FREEZE OF
THE SEASON EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS SURFACE
HIGH SETTLES OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE FREEZE
WATCH AS BEEN EXPANDED SOUTH TO INCLUDE MOST OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WITH AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING. A
HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE MID 20S.

WARMING TREND DEVELOPS SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER SOUTHERN CA/AZ WITH UPPER RIDGE
BRIEFLY BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MONDAY. STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET DEVELOPING AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS WILL ALLOW PLUME
OF DEEPER PACIFIC MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
THE DAY TUESDAY. THE THREAT FOR FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
EXPECTED AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES...WHICH IS UNSEASONABLY HIGH FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AS FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE ARKLATX REGION. GFS REMAINS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE WITH SYSTEM...COMPARED TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND
GENERALLY WENT BETWEEN THE TWO CONCERNING FRONTAL TIMING.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ065-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ019-
     ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KOUN 300827
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
327 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW OK THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
DECIDED TO INCLUDE AN ISOLATED MENTION OF TS ACROSS WESTERN N TX
WHERE ENOUGH MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND SFC CONVERGENCE MAY BE
PRESENT TO SUPPORT THEM. ANY STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL
QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH OUT OF OUR REGION AFTER SUNSET.

DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE A PORTION OF THE FREEZE WATCH FOR
SATURDAY MORNING FOR GRANT...KAY...NOBLE...AND PAYNE COUNTIES
WHERE THE DRIEST AIR IS EXPECTED. WILL CONTINUE WITH AREAS OF
FROST FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL OK AS WELL. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
RETURN SUNDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...AND THEN ACROSS THE REST
OF THE REGION MONDAY...AS A POSITIVELY TITLED UPPER TROUGH
TRAVERSES THE ROCKIES. THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE COLD
FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK...STILL SUGGESTING A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE SW. WILL CONTINUE WITH A COMPROMISE (LEANING CLOSER
TOWARD THE GFSENS MEAN) BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS AND ECMWF.
REGARDLESS...IT STILL APPEARS LIKELY POPS WILL BE REASONABLE BY
TUES AM FOR MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OK WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE PRESENT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  45  59  32 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         75  43  60  33 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  80  47  65  34 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           72  37  57  32 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     73  42  55  27 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         77  49  64  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ005-006-011-012-017>019-023>032.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ007-008-
     013-020.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/03




000
FXUS64 KTSA 300804
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
304 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...HARD FREEZE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
   NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...

ANOTHER NICE/MILD DAY EXPECTED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER CONDITIONS INTO
FRIDAY AS GUSTY NORTH WINDS INCREASE. FIRST SIGNIFICANT FREEZE OF
THE SEASON EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS SURFACE
HIGH SETTLES OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE FREEZE
WATCH AS BEEN EXPANDED SOUTH TO INCLUDE MOST OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WITH AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING. A
HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE MID 20S.

WARMING TREND DEVELOPS SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER SOUTHERN CA/AZ WITH UPPER RIDGE
BRIEFLY BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MONDAY. STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET DEVELOPING AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS WILL ALLOW PLUME
OF DEEPER PACIFIC MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
THE DAY TUESDAY. THE THREAT FOR FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
EXPECTED AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES...WHICH IS UNSEASONABLY HIGH FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AS FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE ARKLATX REGION. GFS REMAINS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE WITH SYSTEM...COMPARED TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND
GENERALLY WENT BETWEEN THE TWO CONCERNING FRONTAL TIMING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  44  55  28 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   73  48  61  30 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   77  49  61  29 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   74  41  54  22 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   71  41  52  23 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   70  44  49  26 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   75  45  57  27 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   72  42  50  24 /  10   0   0   0
F10   75  47  57  28 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   76  47  65  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ065-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ019-
     ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 300444
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1144 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHIFTING THE
WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 849 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE CWA
THIS EVENING...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTED OFF TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION. TO THE NORTHWEST...A WEAK BOUNDARY WAS MOVING
INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND APPROACHING THE OKLAHOMA TEXAS PANHANDLES.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD REMAIN COMMON FOR
THE CWA...WITH SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT NEARS THE REGION. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS SHOULD ALSO BE COMMON TONIGHT AND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL AGAIN AID TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 40S
ACROSS THE CWA WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY REACHING DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 30S. THOUGH WITH THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW...TEMPS
OVERALL TONIGHT SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST CONFIGURATION SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL AND WILL
ADD ONLY MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS TO TEMP/WIND GRIDS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071.

AR...FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05






000
FXUS64 KOUN 300432
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1132 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW...WINDS WILL
INITIALLY SHIFT GRADUALLY TO W/SW...THEN ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO N/NW AS
THE FRONT PASSES. MOST SITES WILL SEE ONLY A WIND SHIFT...BUT
CLOUDS AT ABOUT 2500 TO 3500 FT MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FROM KSPS
TO KOKC AND SE FROM THERE. ISOLATED TSRA MAY OCCUR NEAR THE RED
RIVER...MAINLY E OF KSPS...IN THE AFTERNOON...NEAR THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
EVENING TEMPERATURES DIFFER 10 TO 15 DEGREES DEPENDING ON SITING
AND WIND SPEEDS, BUT AS WINDS DECREASE OVERNIGHT, MORE UNIFORM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE FORECAST LOWS. NO CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST ARE CURRENTLY NEEDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  46  73  43  58 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         44  75  40  61 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  47  80  44  64 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           40  71  34  56 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     42  72  41  54 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         46  77  48  63 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ005>008-011>013-017>020-023>032.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 300235
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
935 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
EVENING TEMPERATURES DIFFER 10 TO 15 DEGREES DEPENDING ON SITING
AND WIND SPEEDS, BUT AS WINDS DECREASE OVERNIGHT, MORE UNIFORM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE FORECAST LOWS. NO CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST ARE CURRENTLY NEEDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  46  73  43  58 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         44  75  40  61 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  47  80  44  64 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           40  71  34  56 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     42  72  41  54 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         46  77  48  63 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ005>008-011>013-017>020-023>032.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 300149
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
849 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE CWA
THIS EVENING...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTED OFF TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION. TO THE NORTHWEST...A WEAK BOUNDARY WAS MOVING
INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND APPROACHING THE OKLAHOMA TEXAS PANHANDLES.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD REMAIN COMMON FOR
THE CWA...WITH SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT NEARS THE REGION. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS SHOULD ALSO BE COMMON TONIGHT AND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL AGAIN AID TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 40S
ACROSS THE CWA WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY REACHING DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 30S. THOUGH WITH THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW...TEMPS
OVERALL TONIGHT SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST CONFIGURATION SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL AND WILL
ADD ONLY MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS TO TEMP/WIND GRIDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   48  73  43  55 /   0  10   0   0
FSM   43  74  46  61 /   0  10   0   0
MLC   45  75  47  60 /   0  10   0   0
BVO   39  75  38  53 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   39  70  39  52 /   0  10   0   0
BYV   43  70  43  51 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   43  74  43  57 /   0  10   0   0
MIO   42  72  40  51 /   0  10   0   0
F10   45  75  45  57 /   0  10   0   0
HHW   43  75  46  64 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071.

AR...FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
AVIATION.....05






000
FXUS64 KTSA 292330
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
630 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS HAS PROVIDED THE REGION WITH A NEAR PERFECT
AUTUMN DAY. SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
RULE TODAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS ON THURSDAY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...THE FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DRY. THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THIS
COLD FRONT WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA USHERING
IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE FALL SEASON SO FAR. BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING
AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY PREVAILS. A HARD
FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THEREFORE...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A
FREEZE WATCH FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE AND BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERLY PLAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS
SOME DEEPER PACIFIC MOISTURE BECOMES INCORPORATED INTO THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END ON
WEDNESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA PUTTING
AND END TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071.

AR...FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05






000
FXUS64 KOUN 292320
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
620 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A WIND SHIFT TOMORROW MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON TO ALL OUR
TAF SITES. IN ADDITION...A CLOUD LAYER AROUND 3000 FT AGL IS
LIKELY NEAR THE FRONT FROM KSPS/KLAW TO KOUN/KOKC. ISOLATED TSRA
MAY OCCUR IN SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SE OK TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE OVER THE CWA WE
WENT AHEAD WITH A FREEZE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. ISOLATED HARD
FREEZE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...NAMELY PONCA
CITY AND STILLWATER AREAS...BUT A FREEZE NONETHELESS FARTHER
SOUTH. DRY AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY ARISES WITH ARRIVAL OF
MID- HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER DOWNSTREAM OF HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE.
MODELS ARE ALL CONSISTENT ON THIS ARRIVAL BUT CONFIDENCE ON HOW
THICK THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE IS LOW. MODEL BLENDED FORECAST DATA
INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF EVEN COLDER TEMPS SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT WE WILL STAY CONSERVATIVE THIS FAR OUT WITH THE
CLOUD ISSUE AT HAND. IN ADDITION...SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH WINDS WILL
START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY KEEP FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA FROM FALLING AS LOW AS LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST. WE WILL
HAVE THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY UP ENOUGH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING TO PREVENT FROST
FORMATION.

CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY WERE CHANGED
VERY LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ONLY CHANGES BEING A
DECREASED POPS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH
GFS AND ECM DPROG/DT SHOWING FASTER PROGRESSION OF TROUGH...WITH
THE GFS MOST PRONOUNCED. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECM OPERATIONAL RUNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  46  73  43  58 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         44  75  40  61 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  47  80  44  64 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           40  71  34  56 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     42  72  41  54 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         46  77  48  63 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ005>008-011>013-017>020-023>032.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 292048
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
348 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE OVER THE CWA WE
WENT AHEAD WITH A FREEZE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. ISOLATED HARD
FREEZE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...NAMELY PONCA
CITY AND STILLWATER AREAS...BUT A FREEZE NONETHELESS FARTHER
SOUTH. DRY AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY ARISES WITH ARRIVAL OF
MID- HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER DOWNSTREAM OF HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE.
MODELS ARE ALL CONSISTENT ON THIS ARRIVAL BUT CONFIDENCE ON HOW
THICK THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE IS LOW. MODEL BLENDED FORECAST DATA
INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF EVEN COLDER TEMPS SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT WE WILL STAY CONSERVATIVE THIS FAR OUT WITH THE
CLOUD ISSUE AT HAND. IN ADDITION...SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH WINDS WILL
START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY KEEP FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA FROM FALLING AS LOW AS LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST. WE WILL
HAVE THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY UP ENOUGH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING TO PREVENT FROST
FORMATION.

CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY WERE CHANGED
VERY LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ONLY CHANGES BEING A
DECREASED POPS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH
GFS AND ECM DPROG/DT SHOWING FASTER PROGRESSION OF TROUGH...WITH
THE GFS MOST PRONOUNCED. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECM OPERATIONAL RUNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  46  73  43  58 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         44  75  40  61 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  47  80  44  64 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           40  71  34  56 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     42  72  41  54 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         46  77  48  63 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ005>008-011>013-017>020-023>032.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/11




000
FXUS64 KTSA 292020
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
320 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS HAS PROVIDED THE REGION WITH A NEAR PERFECT
AUTUMN DAY. SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
RULE TODAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS ON THURSDAY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...THE FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DRY. THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THIS
COLD FRONT WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA USHERING
IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE FALL SEASON SO FAR. BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING
AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY PREVAILS. A HARD
FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THEREFORE...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A
FREEZE WATCH FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE AND BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERLY PLAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS
SOME DEEPER PACIFIC MOISTURE BECOMES INCORPORATED INTO THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END ON
WEDNESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA PUTTING
AND END TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   48  73  43  55 /   0  10   0   0
FSM   43  74  46  61 /   0  10   0   0
MLC   45  75  47  60 /   0  10   0   0
BVO   39  75  38  53 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   39  70  39  52 /   0  10   0   0
BYV   43  70  43  51 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   43  74  43  57 /   0  10   0   0
MIO   42  72  40  51 /   0  10   0   0
F10   45  75  45  57 /   0  10   0   0
HHW   43  75  46  64 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....10






000
FXUS64 KOUN 291744 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1244 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...
29/18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS AFTER 12Z TOMORROW
WITH NW WIND SHIFT MAIN IMPACT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  48  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         72  47  76  44 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  49  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           71  42  71  38 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     70  45  72  42 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         74  48  75  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/99/11




000
FXUS64 KTSA 291651
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1151 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS FIRST PERIOD ELEMENTS ARE TRACKING
TOWARDS AFTERNOON MAXES. QUIET WEATHER TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO ARRIVE THURSDAY.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KOUN 291539 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1039 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPS...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
JUST A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPS THIS AM... 29/12Z OUN SOUNDING
HAS AN IMPRESSIVE INVERSION OFF THE SURFACE... WITH AN EXPANSIVE
REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS.
CONDITIONS WERE RIPE THIS AM FOR ISOLATED FROST DEVELOPMENT ON
ELEVATED SURFACES WITHIN LOW LYING REGIONS... AS SOME LOCATIONS
DIPPED NEAR 35F. CALM TO LIGHT NORTHERLY SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY WHILE VEERING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTN INTO THE
EVENING. OVERALL... WEDNESDAY SHOULD SHAPE UP TO BE BEAUTIFUL.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 753 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR WILL APPLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT FROM THE S AND SE TO AROUND 10 KT. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 30S AND 40S EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER A
SFC HIGH. SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NW WHERE
SOME DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW 32 AND VERY LIGHT WINDS
ARE PRESENT. LATER TODAY...THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY BECOME S AND SE
A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS.

BY LATE TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY...A STOUT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING TO
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING FOR OUR CENTRAL AND NE/E ZONES AS A ~1032
MB SFC HIGH SLIDES OVER THE MIDWEST WITH LOW 20S TO PERHAPS UPPER
TEEN DEWPOINTS ACCOMPANYING IT. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED AREAS OF FROST
HERE.

THE PATTERN WILL BECOME ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A NORTH PAC LOW
MOVES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE SURPRISINGLY SIMILAR WITH REGARDS TO THIS SYSTEM THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIODS WITH A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE GULF
OF CA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF IT
LIFTING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY. THE ECMWF MAY BE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO IMPACT THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME AND RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE WILL NOT BE A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. WILL INTRODUCE LIKELY POPS
TUES MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES GIVEN THE
CURRENT CONTINUITY.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  48  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         72  47  76  44 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  49  78  46 /   0   0  10   0
GAGE OK           71  42  71  38 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     70  45  72  42 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         74  48  75  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/11




000
FXUS64 KTSA 291537
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1037 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS FIRST PERIOD ELEMENTS ARE TRACKING
TOWARDS AFTERNOON MAXES. QUIET WEATHER TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO ARRIVE THURSDAY.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.



&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23





000
FXUS64 KOUN 291253
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
753 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL APPLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT FROM THE S AND SE TO AROUND 10 KT. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 30S AND 40S EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER A
SFC HIGH. SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NW WHERE
SOME DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW 32 AND VERY LIGHT WINDS
ARE PRESENT. LATER TODAY...THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY BECOME S AND SE
A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS.

BY LATE TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY...A STOUT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING TO
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING FOR OUR CENTRAL AND NE/E ZONES AS A ~1032
MB SFC HIGH SLIDES OVER THE MIDWEST WITH LOW 20S TO PERHAPS UPPER
TEEN DEWPOINTS ACCOMPANYING IT. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED AREAS OF FROST
HERE.

THE PATTERN WILL BECOME ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A NORTH PAC LOW
MOVES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE SURPRISINGLY SIMILAR WITH REGARDS TO THIS SYSTEM THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIODS WITH A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE GULF
OF CA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF IT
LIFTING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY. THE ECMWF MAY BE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO IMPACT THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME AND RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE WILL NOT BE A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. WILL INTRODUCE LIKELY POPS
TUES MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES GIVEN THE
CURRENT CONTINUITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  48  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         73  47  76  44 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  49  78  46 /   0   0  10   0
GAGE OK           72  42  71  38 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     72  45  72  42 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         74  48  75  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/03/03




000
FXUS64 KTSA 291112
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
612 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASANT FALL WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD OF NEXT
STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. COLD/CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. BRISK CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. IT APPEARS THAT A FREEZE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF AFOREMENTIONED AREA SATURDAY MORNING AS SURFACE RIDGE
SETTLES OVER MO/AR WITH LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES INTO
THE AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME
AS DEEPER PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMS OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF MAIN
UPPER TROUGH. THIS HOWEVER WILL DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF DEVELOPING
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OFF THE FAR SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO AND THEREFORE UNCERTAINTIES OBVIOUSLY REMAIN THIS FAR IN
ADVANCE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 290853
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
353 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASANT FALL WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD OF NEXT
STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. COLD/CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. BRISK CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. IT APPEARS THAT A FREEZE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF AFOREMENTIONED AREA SATURDAY MORNING AS SURFACE RIDGE
SETTLES OVER MO/AR WITH LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES INTO
THE AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME
AS DEEPER PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMS OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF MAIN
UPPER TROUGH. THIS HOWEVER WILL DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF DEVELOPING
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OFF THE FAR SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO AND THEREFORE UNCERTAINTIES OBVIOUSLY REMAIN THIS FAR IN
ADVANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  48  73  43 /   0   0  10   0
FSM   73  44  73  47 /   0   0  10   0
MLC   74  45  74  47 /   0   0  10   0
BVO   72  39  74  38 /   0   0  10   0
FYV   68  39  71  40 /   0   0  10   0
BYV   67  43  69  43 /   0   0  10   0
MKO   72  43  73  44 /   0   0  10   0
MIO   69  42  71  40 /   0   0  10   0
F10   72  45  74  45 /   0   0  10   0
HHW   74  43  74  47 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....12





000
FXUS64 KOUN 290853
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
353 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 30S AND 40S EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER A
SFC HIGH. SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NW WHERE
SOME DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW 32 AND VERY LIGHT WINDS
ARE PRESENT. LATER TODAY...THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY BECOME S AND SE
A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS.

BY LATE TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY...A STOUT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING TO
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING FOR OUR CENTRAL AND NE/E ZONES AS A ~1032
MB SFC HIGH SLIDES OVER THE MIDWEST WITH LOW 20S TO PERHAPS UPPER
TEEN DEWPOINTS ACCOMPANYING IT. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED AREAS OF FROST
HERE.

THE PATTERN WILL BECOME ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A NORTH PAC LOW
MOVES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE SURPRISINGLY SIMILAR WITH REGARDS TO THIS SYSTEM THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIODS WITH A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE GULF
OF CA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF IT
LIFTING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY. THE ECMWF MAY BE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO IMPACT THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME AND RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE WILL NOT BE A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. WILL INTRODUCE LIKELY POPS
TUES MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES GIVEN THE
CURRENT CONTINUITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  48  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         73  47  76  44 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  49  78  46 /   0   0  10   0
GAGE OK           72  42  71  38 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     72  45  72  42 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         74  48  75  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/03




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities