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000
FXUS64 KOUN 170426
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1126 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY.
RAIN WILL ALSO BEGIN IN NW OK EARLY THU MORNING AND THEN CONTINUE
TO SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. VFR/MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS SHOW A FEW SITES COULD DROP TO IFR CEILINGS.
NOT SURE BELIEVE THEY WILL DO THIS SINCE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION
IS STILL PRETTY DRY. RAIN WILL END THU AFTN/EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 804 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

UPDATE...
ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE.

MAY ADJUST SHOWER CHANCES DOWNWARD LATE TONIGHT
IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJUST SKY COVER ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL.

DISCUSSION...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS HAVE ENDED WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY
AND DECREASING WIND.

BASED ON LATEST HRRR/RAP13...IT APPEARS...THAT ANY RAINFALL
IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 5 AM THURSDAY
MORNING. MAY UPDATE TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES IN THESE AREAS.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
0Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN WILL BEGIN
IN NW OK EARLY THU MORNING AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT
CHANCES VERY LOW SO NO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE IN THESE AREAS. FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY COME DOWN AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD. HUMIDITIES OF 20 PERCENT OR LESS...WARM
TEMPERATURES...AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER...AND THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING.

THE FRONT WILL SLOW TO A CRAWL OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DESPITE RATHER POOR DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE...ADEQUATE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL PROMOTE
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...BEGINNING FIRST OVER
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...THEN SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. WITH PERSISTENT
RAIN/CLOUDINESS AND MODEST COLD ADVECTION...POST FRONTAL AREAS
WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL ON HIGH TEMPERATURES...CLIMBING ONLY
INTO THE 50S.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES
EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RESUMES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HEADING
INTO THE COMING WEEKEND...INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH WILL FEATURE SEVERAL
IMPULSES...WHICH MAY PROMOTE A FAIRLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. GIVEN APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY AND MODEST WIND SHEAR...SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL EXIST...PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY
AS THE MAIN WAVE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...GIVEN
ONLY MODEST DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL END BY MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LEE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...SOME LONG RANGE MODELS
DEPICT A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME...BUT RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT REMAIN POOR AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  45  61  46  74 /  10  70  20  10
HOBART OK         45  57  43  72 /  10  60  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  49  63  49  75 /  10  50  30  10
GAGE OK           40  55  37  73 /  20  80  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     41  59  41  74 /  10  70  20  10
DURANT OK         45  66  52  74 /   0  20  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/25/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 170426
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1126 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY.
RAIN WILL ALSO BEGIN IN NW OK EARLY THU MORNING AND THEN CONTINUE
TO SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. VFR/MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS SHOW A FEW SITES COULD DROP TO IFR CEILINGS.
NOT SURE BELIEVE THEY WILL DO THIS SINCE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION
IS STILL PRETTY DRY. RAIN WILL END THU AFTN/EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 804 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

UPDATE...
ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE.

MAY ADJUST SHOWER CHANCES DOWNWARD LATE TONIGHT
IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJUST SKY COVER ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL.

DISCUSSION...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS HAVE ENDED WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY
AND DECREASING WIND.

BASED ON LATEST HRRR/RAP13...IT APPEARS...THAT ANY RAINFALL
IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 5 AM THURSDAY
MORNING. MAY UPDATE TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES IN THESE AREAS.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
0Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN WILL BEGIN
IN NW OK EARLY THU MORNING AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT
CHANCES VERY LOW SO NO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE IN THESE AREAS. FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY COME DOWN AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD. HUMIDITIES OF 20 PERCENT OR LESS...WARM
TEMPERATURES...AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER...AND THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING.

THE FRONT WILL SLOW TO A CRAWL OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DESPITE RATHER POOR DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE...ADEQUATE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL PROMOTE
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...BEGINNING FIRST OVER
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...THEN SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. WITH PERSISTENT
RAIN/CLOUDINESS AND MODEST COLD ADVECTION...POST FRONTAL AREAS
WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL ON HIGH TEMPERATURES...CLIMBING ONLY
INTO THE 50S.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES
EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RESUMES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HEADING
INTO THE COMING WEEKEND...INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH WILL FEATURE SEVERAL
IMPULSES...WHICH MAY PROMOTE A FAIRLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. GIVEN APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY AND MODEST WIND SHEAR...SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL EXIST...PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY
AS THE MAIN WAVE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...GIVEN
ONLY MODEST DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL END BY MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LEE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...SOME LONG RANGE MODELS
DEPICT A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME...BUT RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT REMAIN POOR AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  45  61  46  74 /  10  70  20  10
HOBART OK         45  57  43  72 /  10  60  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  49  63  49  75 /  10  50  30  10
GAGE OK           40  55  37  73 /  20  80  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     41  59  41  74 /  10  70  20  10
DURANT OK         45  66  52  74 /   0  20  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/25/25


  [top]

000
FXUS64 KTSA 170426
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1126 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
THE LATEST RUC/NAM MODEL DATA HAS TRENDED DRIER IN THE LOWEST
10KFT...AND THUS I HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF RAIN FROM THE NE OK
TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LLWS CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
FOR THE ERN OK SITES WITH A SOUTHERLY LLJ IN PLACE. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD ABATE BY EARLY MORNING. SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
AOB 10 KTS THRU THE PERIOD.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER IOWA HAD PUSHED INTO
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE COMMON ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE CWA TONIGHT AND PUSH INTO THE
CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER
SHOULD INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE A BIT
WARMER ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA WITH THE HELP OF
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CLOSE TO THIS MORNINGS LOWS ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THUS...FOR THE EVENING
UPDATE...HAVE TWEAKED THE TEMP AND SKY GRIDS JUST A BIT.
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS THE HANDLING WELL FOR
TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   43  64  46  72 /  10  60  20   0
FSM   41  68  48  74 /  10  30  20   0
MLC   44  66  48  72 /  10  30  20   0
BVO   39  61  41  72 /  10  60  20   0
FYV   34  64  41  70 /  10  30  20   0
BYV   37  63  43  70 /  10  30  20   0
MKO   42  66  46  72 /  10  50  20   0
MIO   39  64  42  72 /  10  50  20   0
F10   44  64  46  71 /  10  50  20   0
HHW   42  67  50  72 /   0  20  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30






000
FXUS64 KOUN 170426
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1126 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY.
RAIN WILL ALSO BEGIN IN NW OK EARLY THU MORNING AND THEN CONTINUE
TO SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. VFR/MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS SHOW A FEW SITES COULD DROP TO IFR CEILINGS.
NOT SURE BELIEVE THEY WILL DO THIS SINCE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION
IS STILL PRETTY DRY. RAIN WILL END THU AFTN/EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 804 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

UPDATE...
ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE.

MAY ADJUST SHOWER CHANCES DOWNWARD LATE TONIGHT
IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJUST SKY COVER ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL.

DISCUSSION...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS HAVE ENDED WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY
AND DECREASING WIND.

BASED ON LATEST HRRR/RAP13...IT APPEARS...THAT ANY RAINFALL
IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 5 AM THURSDAY
MORNING. MAY UPDATE TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES IN THESE AREAS.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
0Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN WILL BEGIN
IN NW OK EARLY THU MORNING AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT
CHANCES VERY LOW SO NO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE IN THESE AREAS. FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY COME DOWN AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD. HUMIDITIES OF 20 PERCENT OR LESS...WARM
TEMPERATURES...AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER...AND THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING.

THE FRONT WILL SLOW TO A CRAWL OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DESPITE RATHER POOR DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE...ADEQUATE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL PROMOTE
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...BEGINNING FIRST OVER
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...THEN SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. WITH PERSISTENT
RAIN/CLOUDINESS AND MODEST COLD ADVECTION...POST FRONTAL AREAS
WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL ON HIGH TEMPERATURES...CLIMBING ONLY
INTO THE 50S.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES
EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RESUMES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HEADING
INTO THE COMING WEEKEND...INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH WILL FEATURE SEVERAL
IMPULSES...WHICH MAY PROMOTE A FAIRLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. GIVEN APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY AND MODEST WIND SHEAR...SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL EXIST...PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY
AS THE MAIN WAVE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...GIVEN
ONLY MODEST DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL END BY MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LEE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...SOME LONG RANGE MODELS
DEPICT A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME...BUT RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT REMAIN POOR AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  45  61  46  74 /  10  70  20  10
HOBART OK         45  57  43  72 /  10  60  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  49  63  49  75 /  10  50  30  10
GAGE OK           40  55  37  73 /  20  80  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     41  59  41  74 /  10  70  20  10
DURANT OK         45  66  52  74 /   0  20  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/25/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 170426
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1126 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY.
RAIN WILL ALSO BEGIN IN NW OK EARLY THU MORNING AND THEN CONTINUE
TO SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. VFR/MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS SHOW A FEW SITES COULD DROP TO IFR CEILINGS.
NOT SURE BELIEVE THEY WILL DO THIS SINCE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION
IS STILL PRETTY DRY. RAIN WILL END THU AFTN/EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 804 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

UPDATE...
ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE.

MAY ADJUST SHOWER CHANCES DOWNWARD LATE TONIGHT
IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJUST SKY COVER ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL.

DISCUSSION...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS HAVE ENDED WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY
AND DECREASING WIND.

BASED ON LATEST HRRR/RAP13...IT APPEARS...THAT ANY RAINFALL
IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 5 AM THURSDAY
MORNING. MAY UPDATE TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES IN THESE AREAS.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
0Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN WILL BEGIN
IN NW OK EARLY THU MORNING AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT
CHANCES VERY LOW SO NO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE IN THESE AREAS. FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY COME DOWN AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD. HUMIDITIES OF 20 PERCENT OR LESS...WARM
TEMPERATURES...AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER...AND THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING.

THE FRONT WILL SLOW TO A CRAWL OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DESPITE RATHER POOR DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE...ADEQUATE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL PROMOTE
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...BEGINNING FIRST OVER
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...THEN SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. WITH PERSISTENT
RAIN/CLOUDINESS AND MODEST COLD ADVECTION...POST FRONTAL AREAS
WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL ON HIGH TEMPERATURES...CLIMBING ONLY
INTO THE 50S.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES
EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RESUMES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HEADING
INTO THE COMING WEEKEND...INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH WILL FEATURE SEVERAL
IMPULSES...WHICH MAY PROMOTE A FAIRLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. GIVEN APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY AND MODEST WIND SHEAR...SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL EXIST...PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY
AS THE MAIN WAVE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...GIVEN
ONLY MODEST DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL END BY MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LEE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...SOME LONG RANGE MODELS
DEPICT A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME...BUT RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT REMAIN POOR AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  45  61  46  74 /  10  70  20  10
HOBART OK         45  57  43  72 /  10  60  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  49  63  49  75 /  10  50  30  10
GAGE OK           40  55  37  73 /  20  80  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     41  59  41  74 /  10  70  20  10
DURANT OK         45  66  52  74 /   0  20  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/25/25



000
FXUS64 KTSA 170426
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1126 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
THE LATEST RUC/NAM MODEL DATA HAS TRENDED DRIER IN THE LOWEST
10KFT...AND THUS I HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF RAIN FROM THE NE OK
TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LLWS CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
FOR THE ERN OK SITES WITH A SOUTHERLY LLJ IN PLACE. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD ABATE BY EARLY MORNING. SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
AOB 10 KTS THRU THE PERIOD.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER IOWA HAD PUSHED INTO
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE COMMON ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE CWA TONIGHT AND PUSH INTO THE
CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER
SHOULD INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE A BIT
WARMER ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA WITH THE HELP OF
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CLOSE TO THIS MORNINGS LOWS ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THUS...FOR THE EVENING
UPDATE...HAVE TWEAKED THE TEMP AND SKY GRIDS JUST A BIT.
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS THE HANDLING WELL FOR
TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   43  64  46  72 /  10  60  20   0
FSM   41  68  48  74 /  10  30  20   0
MLC   44  66  48  72 /  10  30  20   0
BVO   39  61  41  72 /  10  60  20   0
FYV   34  64  41  70 /  10  30  20   0
BYV   37  63  43  70 /  10  30  20   0
MKO   42  66  46  72 /  10  50  20   0
MIO   39  64  42  72 /  10  50  20   0
F10   44  64  46  71 /  10  50  20   0
HHW   42  67  50  72 /   0  20  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30






000
FXUS64 KOUN 170426
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1126 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY.
RAIN WILL ALSO BEGIN IN NW OK EARLY THU MORNING AND THEN CONTINUE
TO SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. VFR/MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS SHOW A FEW SITES COULD DROP TO IFR CEILINGS.
NOT SURE BELIEVE THEY WILL DO THIS SINCE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION
IS STILL PRETTY DRY. RAIN WILL END THU AFTN/EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 804 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

UPDATE...
ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE.

MAY ADJUST SHOWER CHANCES DOWNWARD LATE TONIGHT
IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJUST SKY COVER ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL.

DISCUSSION...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS HAVE ENDED WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY
AND DECREASING WIND.

BASED ON LATEST HRRR/RAP13...IT APPEARS...THAT ANY RAINFALL
IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 5 AM THURSDAY
MORNING. MAY UPDATE TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES IN THESE AREAS.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
0Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN WILL BEGIN
IN NW OK EARLY THU MORNING AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT
CHANCES VERY LOW SO NO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE IN THESE AREAS. FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY COME DOWN AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD. HUMIDITIES OF 20 PERCENT OR LESS...WARM
TEMPERATURES...AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER...AND THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING.

THE FRONT WILL SLOW TO A CRAWL OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DESPITE RATHER POOR DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE...ADEQUATE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL PROMOTE
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...BEGINNING FIRST OVER
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...THEN SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. WITH PERSISTENT
RAIN/CLOUDINESS AND MODEST COLD ADVECTION...POST FRONTAL AREAS
WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL ON HIGH TEMPERATURES...CLIMBING ONLY
INTO THE 50S.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES
EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RESUMES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HEADING
INTO THE COMING WEEKEND...INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH WILL FEATURE SEVERAL
IMPULSES...WHICH MAY PROMOTE A FAIRLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. GIVEN APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY AND MODEST WIND SHEAR...SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL EXIST...PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY
AS THE MAIN WAVE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...GIVEN
ONLY MODEST DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL END BY MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LEE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...SOME LONG RANGE MODELS
DEPICT A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME...BUT RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT REMAIN POOR AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  45  61  46  74 /  10  70  20  10
HOBART OK         45  57  43  72 /  10  60  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  49  63  49  75 /  10  50  30  10
GAGE OK           40  55  37  73 /  20  80  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     41  59  41  74 /  10  70  20  10
DURANT OK         45  66  52  74 /   0  20  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/25/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 170426
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1126 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY.
RAIN WILL ALSO BEGIN IN NW OK EARLY THU MORNING AND THEN CONTINUE
TO SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. VFR/MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS SHOW A FEW SITES COULD DROP TO IFR CEILINGS.
NOT SURE BELIEVE THEY WILL DO THIS SINCE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION
IS STILL PRETTY DRY. RAIN WILL END THU AFTN/EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 804 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

UPDATE...
ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE.

MAY ADJUST SHOWER CHANCES DOWNWARD LATE TONIGHT
IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJUST SKY COVER ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL.

DISCUSSION...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS HAVE ENDED WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY
AND DECREASING WIND.

BASED ON LATEST HRRR/RAP13...IT APPEARS...THAT ANY RAINFALL
IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 5 AM THURSDAY
MORNING. MAY UPDATE TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES IN THESE AREAS.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
0Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN WILL BEGIN
IN NW OK EARLY THU MORNING AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT
CHANCES VERY LOW SO NO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE IN THESE AREAS. FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY COME DOWN AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD. HUMIDITIES OF 20 PERCENT OR LESS...WARM
TEMPERATURES...AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER...AND THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING.

THE FRONT WILL SLOW TO A CRAWL OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DESPITE RATHER POOR DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE...ADEQUATE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL PROMOTE
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...BEGINNING FIRST OVER
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...THEN SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. WITH PERSISTENT
RAIN/CLOUDINESS AND MODEST COLD ADVECTION...POST FRONTAL AREAS
WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL ON HIGH TEMPERATURES...CLIMBING ONLY
INTO THE 50S.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES
EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RESUMES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HEADING
INTO THE COMING WEEKEND...INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH WILL FEATURE SEVERAL
IMPULSES...WHICH MAY PROMOTE A FAIRLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. GIVEN APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY AND MODEST WIND SHEAR...SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL EXIST...PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY
AS THE MAIN WAVE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...GIVEN
ONLY MODEST DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL END BY MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LEE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...SOME LONG RANGE MODELS
DEPICT A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME...BUT RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT REMAIN POOR AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  45  61  46  74 /  10  70  20  10
HOBART OK         45  57  43  72 /  10  60  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  49  63  49  75 /  10  50  30  10
GAGE OK           40  55  37  73 /  20  80  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     41  59  41  74 /  10  70  20  10
DURANT OK         45  66  52  74 /   0  20  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/25/25



000
FXUS64 KTSA 170426
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1126 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
THE LATEST RUC/NAM MODEL DATA HAS TRENDED DRIER IN THE LOWEST
10KFT...AND THUS I HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF RAIN FROM THE NE OK
TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LLWS CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
FOR THE ERN OK SITES WITH A SOUTHERLY LLJ IN PLACE. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD ABATE BY EARLY MORNING. SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
AOB 10 KTS THRU THE PERIOD.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER IOWA HAD PUSHED INTO
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE COMMON ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE CWA TONIGHT AND PUSH INTO THE
CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER
SHOULD INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE A BIT
WARMER ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA WITH THE HELP OF
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CLOSE TO THIS MORNINGS LOWS ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THUS...FOR THE EVENING
UPDATE...HAVE TWEAKED THE TEMP AND SKY GRIDS JUST A BIT.
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS THE HANDLING WELL FOR
TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   43  64  46  72 /  10  60  20   0
FSM   41  68  48  74 /  10  30  20   0
MLC   44  66  48  72 /  10  30  20   0
BVO   39  61  41  72 /  10  60  20   0
FYV   34  64  41  70 /  10  30  20   0
BYV   37  63  43  70 /  10  30  20   0
MKO   42  66  46  72 /  10  50  20   0
MIO   39  64  42  72 /  10  50  20   0
F10   44  64  46  71 /  10  50  20   0
HHW   42  67  50  72 /   0  20  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30






000
FXUS64 KTSA 170208
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
908 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER IOWA HAD PUSHED INTO
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE COMMON ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE CWA TONIGHT AND PUSH INTO THE
CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER
SHOULD INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE A BIT
WARMER ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA WITH THE HELP OF
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CLOSE TO THIS MORNINGS LOWS ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THUS...FOR THE EVENING
UPDATE...HAVE TWEAKED THE TEMP AND SKY GRIDS JUST A BIT.
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS THE HANDLING WELL FOR
TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   43  64  46  72 /  10  60  20   0
FSM   41  68  48  74 /  10  30  20   0
MLC   44  66  48  72 /  10  30  20   0
BVO   39  61  41  72 /  10  60  20   0
FYV   34  64  41  70 /  10  30  20   0
BYV   37  63  43  70 /  10  30  20   0
MKO   42  66  46  72 /  10  50  20   0
MIO   39  64  42  72 /  10  50  20   0
F10   44  64  46  71 /  10  50  20   0
HHW   42  67  50  72 /   0  20  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....99






000
FXUS64 KOUN 170104 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
804 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE.

MAY ADJUST SHOWER CHANCES DOWNWARD LATE TONIGHT
IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJUST SKY COVER ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS HAVE ENDED WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY
AND DECREASING WIND.

BASED ON LATEST HRRR/RAP13...IT APPEARS...THAT ANY RAINFALL
IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 5 AM THURSDAY
MORNING. MAY UPDATE TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES IN THESE AREAS.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
0Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN WILL BEGIN
IN NW OK EARLY THU MORNING AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT
CHANCES VERY LOW SO NO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE IN THESE AREAS. FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY COME DOWN AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD. HUMIDITIES OF 20 PERCENT OR LESS...WARM
TEMPERATURES...AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER...AND THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING.

THE FRONT WILL SLOW TO A CRAWL OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DESPITE RATHER POOR DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE...ADEQUATE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL PROMOTE
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...BEGINNING FIRST OVER
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...THEN SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. WITH PERSISTENT
RAIN/CLOUDINESS AND MODEST COLD ADVECTION...POST FRONTAL AREAS
WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL ON HIGH TEMPERATURES...CLIMBING ONLY
INTO THE 50S.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES
EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RESUMES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HEADING
INTO THE COMING WEEKEND...INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH WILL FEATURE SEVERAL
IMPULSES...WHICH MAY PROMOTE A FAIRLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. GIVEN APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY AND MODEST WIND SHEAR...SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL EXIST...PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY
AS THE MAIN WAVE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...GIVEN
ONLY MODEST DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL END BY MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LEE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...SOME LONG RANGE MODELS
DEPICT A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME...BUT RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT REMAIN POOR AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ011-014>017-
     021>023-033>038-044.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>089.

&&

$$

17/25



000
FXUS64 KTSA 162324
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
624 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. AT
THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NE
OK SITES. LIFT FROM THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING VFR CIGS AND A
CHANCE FOR RA/SHRA TO THE NE OK SITES AFT 18Z. SFC WINDS WILL BACK
OFF BY 01Z THIS EVENING AND WILL STAY FAIRLY LIGHT THRU THE END OF
THE FCST PERIOD.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WITH DRY/WINDY CONDITIONS. WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS
BEFORE SUBSIDING THIS EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44 THROUGH 600 PM.

UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THURSDAY
MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST.
FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA THEN BECOME DIFFUSE INTO FRIDAY
WITH WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.

NEXT UPPER WAVE STILL EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTH.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SURFACE HEATING OCCURS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
..INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COUPLED WITH MODERATE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST AT LEAST A LIMITED WIND/HAIL THREAT. SHOWERS
/THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY BEFORE UPPER SYSTEM SHIFTS
EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   43  64  46  72 /  10  60  20   0
FSM   41  68  48  74 /  10  30  20   0
MLC   44  66  48  72 /  10  30  20   0
BVO   39  61  41  72 /  10  60  20   0
FYV   36  64  41  70 /  10  30  20   0
BYV   37  63  43  70 /  10  30  20   0
MKO   42  66  46  72 /  10  50  20   0
MIO   39  64  42  72 /  10  50  20   0
F10   44  64  46  71 /  10  50  20   0
HHW   42  67  50  72 /   0  20  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30






000
FXUS64 KOUN 162319
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
619 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
0Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN WILL BEGIN
IN NW OK EARLY THU MORNING AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT
CHANCES VERY LOW SO NO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE IN THESE AREAS. FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY COME DOWN AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD. HUMIDITIES OF 20 PERCENT OR LESS...WARM
TEMPERATURES...AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER...AND THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING.

THE FRONT WILL SLOW TO A CRAWL OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DESPITE RATHER POOR DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE...ADEQUATE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL PROMOTE
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...BEGINNING FIRST OVER
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...THEN SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. WITH PERSISTENT
RAIN/CLOUDINESS AND MODEST COLD ADVECTION...POST FRONTAL AREAS
WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL ON HIGH TEMPERATURES...CLIMBING ONLY
INTO THE 50S.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES
EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RESUMES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HEADING
INTO THE COMING WEEKEND...INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH WILL FEATURE SEVERAL
IMPULSES...WHICH MAY PROMOTE A FAIRLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. GIVEN APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY AND MODEST WIND SHEAR...SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL EXIST...PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY
AS THE MAIN WAVE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...GIVEN
ONLY MODEST DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL END BY MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LEE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...SOME LONG RANGE MODELS
DEPICT A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME...BUT RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT REMAIN POOR AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  48  61  46  74 /  10  70  20  10
HOBART OK         48  57  43  72 /  10  60  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  51  63  49  75 /  10  50  30  10
GAGE OK           44  55  37  73 /  40  80  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     46  59  41  74 /  10  70  20  10
DURANT OK         47  66  52  74 /   0  20  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ011-014>017-
     021>023-033>038-044.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>089.

&&

$$

17/25/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 162319
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
619 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
0Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN WILL BEGIN
IN NW OK EARLY THU MORNING AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT
CHANCES VERY LOW SO NO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE IN THESE AREAS. FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY COME DOWN AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD. HUMIDITIES OF 20 PERCENT OR LESS...WARM
TEMPERATURES...AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER...AND THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING.

THE FRONT WILL SLOW TO A CRAWL OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DESPITE RATHER POOR DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE...ADEQUATE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL PROMOTE
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...BEGINNING FIRST OVER
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...THEN SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. WITH PERSISTENT
RAIN/CLOUDINESS AND MODEST COLD ADVECTION...POST FRONTAL AREAS
WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL ON HIGH TEMPERATURES...CLIMBING ONLY
INTO THE 50S.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES
EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RESUMES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HEADING
INTO THE COMING WEEKEND...INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH WILL FEATURE SEVERAL
IMPULSES...WHICH MAY PROMOTE A FAIRLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. GIVEN APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY AND MODEST WIND SHEAR...SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL EXIST...PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY
AS THE MAIN WAVE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...GIVEN
ONLY MODEST DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL END BY MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LEE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...SOME LONG RANGE MODELS
DEPICT A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME...BUT RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT REMAIN POOR AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  48  61  46  74 /  10  70  20  10
HOBART OK         48  57  43  72 /  10  60  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  51  63  49  75 /  10  50  30  10
GAGE OK           44  55  37  73 /  40  80  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     46  59  41  74 /  10  70  20  10
DURANT OK         47  66  52  74 /   0  20  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ011-014>017-
     021>023-033>038-044.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>089.

&&

$$

17/25/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 162319
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
619 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
0Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN WILL BEGIN
IN NW OK EARLY THU MORNING AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT
CHANCES VERY LOW SO NO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE IN THESE AREAS. FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY COME DOWN AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD. HUMIDITIES OF 20 PERCENT OR LESS...WARM
TEMPERATURES...AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER...AND THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING.

THE FRONT WILL SLOW TO A CRAWL OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DESPITE RATHER POOR DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE...ADEQUATE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL PROMOTE
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...BEGINNING FIRST OVER
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...THEN SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. WITH PERSISTENT
RAIN/CLOUDINESS AND MODEST COLD ADVECTION...POST FRONTAL AREAS
WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL ON HIGH TEMPERATURES...CLIMBING ONLY
INTO THE 50S.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES
EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RESUMES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HEADING
INTO THE COMING WEEKEND...INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH WILL FEATURE SEVERAL
IMPULSES...WHICH MAY PROMOTE A FAIRLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. GIVEN APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY AND MODEST WIND SHEAR...SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL EXIST...PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY
AS THE MAIN WAVE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...GIVEN
ONLY MODEST DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL END BY MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LEE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...SOME LONG RANGE MODELS
DEPICT A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME...BUT RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT REMAIN POOR AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  48  61  46  74 /  10  70  20  10
HOBART OK         48  57  43  72 /  10  60  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  51  63  49  75 /  10  50  30  10
GAGE OK           44  55  37  73 /  40  80  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     46  59  41  74 /  10  70  20  10
DURANT OK         47  66  52  74 /   0  20  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ011-014>017-
     021>023-033>038-044.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>089.

&&

$$

17/25/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 162319
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
619 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
0Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN WILL BEGIN
IN NW OK EARLY THU MORNING AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT
CHANCES VERY LOW SO NO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE IN THESE AREAS. FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY COME DOWN AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD. HUMIDITIES OF 20 PERCENT OR LESS...WARM
TEMPERATURES...AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER...AND THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING.

THE FRONT WILL SLOW TO A CRAWL OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DESPITE RATHER POOR DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE...ADEQUATE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL PROMOTE
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...BEGINNING FIRST OVER
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...THEN SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. WITH PERSISTENT
RAIN/CLOUDINESS AND MODEST COLD ADVECTION...POST FRONTAL AREAS
WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL ON HIGH TEMPERATURES...CLIMBING ONLY
INTO THE 50S.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES
EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RESUMES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HEADING
INTO THE COMING WEEKEND...INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH WILL FEATURE SEVERAL
IMPULSES...WHICH MAY PROMOTE A FAIRLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. GIVEN APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY AND MODEST WIND SHEAR...SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL EXIST...PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY
AS THE MAIN WAVE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...GIVEN
ONLY MODEST DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL END BY MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LEE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...SOME LONG RANGE MODELS
DEPICT A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME...BUT RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT REMAIN POOR AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  48  61  46  74 /  10  70  20  10
HOBART OK         48  57  43  72 /  10  60  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  51  63  49  75 /  10  50  30  10
GAGE OK           44  55  37  73 /  40  80  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     46  59  41  74 /  10  70  20  10
DURANT OK         47  66  52  74 /   0  20  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ011-014>017-
     021>023-033>038-044.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>089.

&&

$$

17/25/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 162037
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
337 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE IN THESE AREAS. FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY COME DOWN AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD. HUMIDITIES OF 20 PERCENT OR LESS...WARM
TEMPERATURES...AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER...AND THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING.

THE FRONT WILL SLOW TO A CRAWL OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DESPITE RATHER POOR DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE...ADEQUATE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL PROMOTE
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...BEGINNING FIRST OVER
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...THEN SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. WITH PERSISTENT
RAIN/CLOUDINESS AND MODEST COLD ADVECTION...POST FRONTAL AREAS
WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL ON HIGH TEMPERATURES...CLIMBING ONLY
INTO THE 50S.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES
EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RESUMES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HEADING
INTO THE COMING WEEKEND...INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH WILL FEATURE SEVERAL
IMPULSES...WHICH MAY PROMOTE A FAIRLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. GIVEN APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY AND MODEST WIND SHEAR...SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL EXIST...PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY
AS THE MAIN WAVE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...GIVEN
ONLY MODEST DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL END BY MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LEE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...SOME LONG RANGE MODELS
DEPICT A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME...BUT RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT REMAIN POOR AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  48  61  46  74 /  10  70  20  10
HOBART OK         48  57  43  72 /  10  60  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  51  63  49  75 /  10  50  30  10
GAGE OK           44  55  37  73 /  40  80  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     46  59  41  74 /  10  70  20  10
DURANT OK         47  66  52  74 /   0  20  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ011-014>017-
     021>023-033>038-044.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>089.

&&

$$

JTK/AUSTIN




000
FXUS64 KOUN 162037
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
337 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE IN THESE AREAS. FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY COME DOWN AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD. HUMIDITIES OF 20 PERCENT OR LESS...WARM
TEMPERATURES...AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER...AND THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING.

THE FRONT WILL SLOW TO A CRAWL OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DESPITE RATHER POOR DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE...ADEQUATE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL PROMOTE
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...BEGINNING FIRST OVER
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...THEN SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. WITH PERSISTENT
RAIN/CLOUDINESS AND MODEST COLD ADVECTION...POST FRONTAL AREAS
WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL ON HIGH TEMPERATURES...CLIMBING ONLY
INTO THE 50S.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES
EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RESUMES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HEADING
INTO THE COMING WEEKEND...INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH WILL FEATURE SEVERAL
IMPULSES...WHICH MAY PROMOTE A FAIRLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. GIVEN APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY AND MODEST WIND SHEAR...SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL EXIST...PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY
AS THE MAIN WAVE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...GIVEN
ONLY MODEST DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL END BY MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LEE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...SOME LONG RANGE MODELS
DEPICT A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME...BUT RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT REMAIN POOR AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  48  61  46  74 /  10  70  20  10
HOBART OK         48  57  43  72 /  10  60  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  51  63  49  75 /  10  50  30  10
GAGE OK           44  55  37  73 /  40  80  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     46  59  41  74 /  10  70  20  10
DURANT OK         47  66  52  74 /   0  20  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ011-014>017-
     021>023-033>038-044.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>089.

&&

$$

JTK/AUSTIN



000
FXUS64 KTSA 161956
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
256 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WITH DRY/WINDY CONDITIONS. WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS
BEFORE SUBSIDING THIS EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44 THROUGH 600 PM.

UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THURSDAY
MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST.
FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA THEN BECOME DIFFUSE INTO FRIDAY
WITH WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.

NEXT UPPER WAVE STILL EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTH.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SURFACE HEATING OCCURS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
...INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COUPLED WITH MODERATE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST AT LEAST A LIMITED WIND/HAIL THREAT. SHOWERS
/THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY BEFORE UPPER SYSTEM SHIFTS
EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   43  64  46  72 /  10  60  10   0
FSM   41  68  48  74 /  10  30  20   0
MLC   44  66  48  72 /  10  30  10   0
BVO   39  61  41  72 /  10  60  10   0
FYV   36  64  41  70 /  10  30  20   0
BYV   37  63  43  70 /  10  30  30   0
MKO   42  66  46  72 /  10  50  20   0
MIO   39  64  42  72 /  10  50  20   0
F10   44  64  46  71 /  10  50  10   0
HHW   42  67  50  72 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ064.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....12






000
FXUS64 KOUN 161750
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1250 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
REFER TO THE 18Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF
TODAY. AS A FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL HAPPEN FIRST AT KGAG/KWWR...AND
SPREAD SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR -RA AND MVFR/IFR
CIGS...ESPECIALLY FROM KHBR/KCSM NWD TO KGAG/KWWR. -RA WILL ALSO
LEAD TO REDUCED VSBYS BEGINNING AROUND 12Z AND LASTING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

UPDATE...
WIND ADVISORY ISSUED THROUGH 3 PM...

DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE STARTED TO GUST NEAR/OVER 40 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT 4 TO 5 HOURS AS SFC HEATING INCREASES MIXING WITHIN THE
BL... AND THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHTENED DUE TO TO
APPROACHING SFC TROUGH ACROSS SWRN KS AND THE PANHANDLES. SFC
ANALYSIS AT 15Z SHOWED WINDS STARTING TO VEER TO THE W/NW ACROSS
THE OK PANHANDLE INTO WRN KS AND SERN CO.

OTHER THAN WINDS... TEMP FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK... MADE ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AS TEMPS HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE A TAD FASTER
ACROSS NWRN OK AND WRN OK THIS MORNING.

FIRE WEATHER... NO CHANGE TO THE CURRENT RFW... RH VALUES WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH NOON... WITH TEENS ACROSS FAR SWRN OK AND
WRN N TX BY THE AFTN. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AHEAD OF THE SFC
TROUGH/FRONT THROUGH THE AFTN.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH THEY WILL SLOWLY DECREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON AND OFF THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH SOME BRIEF CLEARING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.

03

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WIND GUSTS RANGE FROM AROUND 10 MPH UP TO 30 MPH FROM SE
TO NW RESPECTIVELY EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE KEEPING
TEMPS ELEVATED. BATCH OF CIRRUS CURRENTLY OVERHEAD ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THIN AND MOVE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
DECIDED TO ISSUE RFW FOR WESTERN OK AND WESTERN N TX WHERE WINDS
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AND RH LOW ENOUGH TO RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THERE...ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AFTER
INITIAL MIXING.

STILL EXPECT 50-80 PERCENT POPS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF OK THURS AS
A MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD...WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING IT. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL AT
LEAST SUPPORT HIGH PROBS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH THIS FEATURE. STILL A
BIT UNCLEAR ON HOW MUCH CAA WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR WITH THE
FRONT...BUT PRECIP/CLOUD COVER WILL DEFINITELY KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THURSDAY
SINCE ANY ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR FA.

RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END QUICKLY BY LATE THURS AS DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING REPLACES THE TROUGH AXIS. THEN...BY
SATURDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE SW CONUS AND GULF OF CA. AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY...WHILE THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS LIKELY
PASSES OVER DURING THE DAY EASTER SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH
CHC POPS/THUNDER LATE SAT THROUGH SUN WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNING AND A FRONT ALSO IN PLAY BY SUN. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE
SEVERE POTENTIAL RIGHT NOW...BUT SOUTHERN ZONES APPEAR TO BE
FAVORED FOR THE MOMENT WHERE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
STRONGER COMBINED WITH HIGHER INSTABILITY.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  46  60  46 /   0  10  70  20
HOBART OK         73  48  58  43 /   0  10  40  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  50  63  49 /   0  10  50  20
GAGE OK           74  42  56  37 /   0  30  70   0
PONCA CITY OK     68  43  57  41 /   0  10  70  10
DURANT OK         66  47  64  52 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ007-008-
     011>029-034-035-038.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ011-014>017-
     021>023-033>038-044.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>089.

&&

$$

JTK/AUSTIN



000
FXUS64 KOUN 161750
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1250 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
REFER TO THE 18Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF
TODAY. AS A FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL HAPPEN FIRST AT KGAG/KWWR...AND
SPREAD SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR -RA AND MVFR/IFR
CIGS...ESPECIALLY FROM KHBR/KCSM NWD TO KGAG/KWWR. -RA WILL ALSO
LEAD TO REDUCED VSBYS BEGINNING AROUND 12Z AND LASTING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

UPDATE...
WIND ADVISORY ISSUED THROUGH 3 PM...

DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE STARTED TO GUST NEAR/OVER 40 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT 4 TO 5 HOURS AS SFC HEATING INCREASES MIXING WITHIN THE
BL... AND THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHTENED DUE TO TO
APPROACHING SFC TROUGH ACROSS SWRN KS AND THE PANHANDLES. SFC
ANALYSIS AT 15Z SHOWED WINDS STARTING TO VEER TO THE W/NW ACROSS
THE OK PANHANDLE INTO WRN KS AND SERN CO.

OTHER THAN WINDS... TEMP FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK... MADE ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AS TEMPS HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE A TAD FASTER
ACROSS NWRN OK AND WRN OK THIS MORNING.

FIRE WEATHER... NO CHANGE TO THE CURRENT RFW... RH VALUES WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH NOON... WITH TEENS ACROSS FAR SWRN OK AND
WRN N TX BY THE AFTN. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AHEAD OF THE SFC
TROUGH/FRONT THROUGH THE AFTN.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH THEY WILL SLOWLY DECREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON AND OFF THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH SOME BRIEF CLEARING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.

03

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WIND GUSTS RANGE FROM AROUND 10 MPH UP TO 30 MPH FROM SE
TO NW RESPECTIVELY EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE KEEPING
TEMPS ELEVATED. BATCH OF CIRRUS CURRENTLY OVERHEAD ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THIN AND MOVE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
DECIDED TO ISSUE RFW FOR WESTERN OK AND WESTERN N TX WHERE WINDS
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AND RH LOW ENOUGH TO RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THERE...ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AFTER
INITIAL MIXING.

STILL EXPECT 50-80 PERCENT POPS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF OK THURS AS
A MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD...WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING IT. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL AT
LEAST SUPPORT HIGH PROBS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH THIS FEATURE. STILL A
BIT UNCLEAR ON HOW MUCH CAA WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR WITH THE
FRONT...BUT PRECIP/CLOUD COVER WILL DEFINITELY KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THURSDAY
SINCE ANY ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR FA.

RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END QUICKLY BY LATE THURS AS DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING REPLACES THE TROUGH AXIS. THEN...BY
SATURDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE SW CONUS AND GULF OF CA. AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY...WHILE THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS LIKELY
PASSES OVER DURING THE DAY EASTER SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH
CHC POPS/THUNDER LATE SAT THROUGH SUN WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNING AND A FRONT ALSO IN PLAY BY SUN. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE
SEVERE POTENTIAL RIGHT NOW...BUT SOUTHERN ZONES APPEAR TO BE
FAVORED FOR THE MOMENT WHERE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
STRONGER COMBINED WITH HIGHER INSTABILITY.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  46  60  46 /   0  10  70  20
HOBART OK         73  48  58  43 /   0  10  40  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  50  63  49 /   0  10  50  20
GAGE OK           74  42  56  37 /   0  30  70   0
PONCA CITY OK     68  43  57  41 /   0  10  70  10
DURANT OK         66  47  64  52 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ007-008-
     011>029-034-035-038.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ011-014>017-
     021>023-033>038-044.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>089.

&&

$$

JTK/AUSTIN




000
FXUS64 KTSA 161658
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1158 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL
SUBSIDE TOWARDS 00Z AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. AN INCREASE IN MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER ALL ELEMENTS WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPDATE REFLECTS ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY THAT WILL BE EFFECTIVE
THROUGH 6 PM FOR PARTS OF NE OK. OTHER THAN A FEW TWEAKS TO WIND
GRIDS TO FIT THE LATEST TRENDS...REMAINING FIRST PERIOD FORECAST
ELEMENTS ARE ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.

UPDATED ZFP SENT...AFM/PFM WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ064.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...23






000
FXUS64 KTSA 161542
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1042 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPDATE REFLECTS ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY THAT WILL BE EFFECTIVE
THROUGH 6 PM FOR PARTS OF NE OK. OTHER THAN A FEW TWEAKS TO WIND
GRIDS TO FIT THE LATEST TRENDS...REMAINING FIRST PERIOD FORECAST
ELEMENTS ARE ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.

UPDATED ZFP SENT...AFM/PFM WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.



&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ064.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....12






000
FXUS64 KOUN 161530
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1030 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
WIND ADVISORY ISSUED THROUGH 3 PM...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE STARTED TO GUST NEAR/OVER 40 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT 4 TO 5 HOURS AS SFC HEATING INCREASES MIXING WITHIN THE
BL... AND THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHTENED DUE TO TO
APPROACHING SFC TROUGH ACROSS SWRN KS AND THE PANHANDLES. SFC
ANALYSIS AT 15Z SHOWED WINDS STARTING TO VEER TO THE W/NW ACROSS
THE OK PANHANDLE INTO WRN KS AND SERN CO.

OTHER THAN WINDS... TEMP FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK... MADE ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AS TEMPS HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE A TAD FASTER
ACROSS NWRN OK AND WRN OK THIS MORNING.

FIRE WEATHER... NO CHANGE TO THE CURRENT RFW... RH VALUES WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH NOON... WITH TEENS ACROSS FAR SWRN OK AND
WRN N TX BY THE AFTN. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AHEAD OF THE SFC
TROUGH/FRONT THROUGH THE AFTN.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH THEY WILL SLOWLY DECREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON AND OFF THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH SOME BRIEF CLEARING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.

03

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WIND GUSTS RANGE FROM AROUND 10 MPH UP TO 30 MPH FROM SE
TO NW RESPECTIVELY EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE KEEPING
TEMPS ELEVATED. BATCH OF CIRRUS CURRENTLY OVERHEAD ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THIN AND MOVE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
DECIDED TO ISSUE RFW FOR WESTERN OK AND WESTERN N TX WHERE WINDS
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AND RH LOW ENOUGH TO RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THERE...ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AFTER
INITIAL MIXING.

STILL EXPECT 50-80 PERCENT POPS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF OK THURS AS
A MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD...WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING IT. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL AT
LEAST SUPPORT HIGH PROBS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH THIS FEATURE. STILL A
BIT UNCLEAR ON HOW MUCH CAA WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR WITH THE
FRONT...BUT PRECIP/CLOUD COVER WILL DEFINITELY KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THURSDAY
SINCE ANY ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR FA.

RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END QUICKLY BY LATE THURS AS DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING REPLACES THE TROUGH AXIS. THEN...BY
SATURDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE SW CONUS AND GULF OF CA. AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY...WHILE THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS LIKELY
PASSES OVER DURING THE DAY EASTER SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH
CHC POPS/THUNDER LATE SAT THROUGH SUN WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNING AND A FRONT ALSO IN PLAY BY SUN. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE
SEVERE POTENTIAL RIGHT NOW...BUT SOUTHERN ZONES APPEAR TO BE
FAVORED FOR THE MOMENT WHERE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
STRONGER COMBINED WITH HIGHER INSTABILITY.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  46  60  46 /   0  10  70  20
HOBART OK         73  48  58  43 /   0  10  40  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  50  63  49 /   0  10  50  20
GAGE OK           74  42  56  37 /   0  30  70   0
PONCA CITY OK     68  43  57  41 /   0  10  70  10
DURANT OK         66  47  64  52 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ007-008-
     011>029-034-035-038.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ011-014>017-
     021>023-033>038-044.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>089.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 161530
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1030 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
WIND ADVISORY ISSUED THROUGH 3 PM...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE STARTED TO GUST NEAR/OVER 40 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT 4 TO 5 HOURS AS SFC HEATING INCREASES MIXING WITHIN THE
BL... AND THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHTENED DUE TO TO
APPROACHING SFC TROUGH ACROSS SWRN KS AND THE PANHANDLES. SFC
ANALYSIS AT 15Z SHOWED WINDS STARTING TO VEER TO THE W/NW ACROSS
THE OK PANHANDLE INTO WRN KS AND SERN CO.

OTHER THAN WINDS... TEMP FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK... MADE ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AS TEMPS HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE A TAD FASTER
ACROSS NWRN OK AND WRN OK THIS MORNING.

FIRE WEATHER... NO CHANGE TO THE CURRENT RFW... RH VALUES WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH NOON... WITH TEENS ACROSS FAR SWRN OK AND
WRN N TX BY THE AFTN. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AHEAD OF THE SFC
TROUGH/FRONT THROUGH THE AFTN.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH THEY WILL SLOWLY DECREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON AND OFF THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH SOME BRIEF CLEARING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.

03

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WIND GUSTS RANGE FROM AROUND 10 MPH UP TO 30 MPH FROM SE
TO NW RESPECTIVELY EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE KEEPING
TEMPS ELEVATED. BATCH OF CIRRUS CURRENTLY OVERHEAD ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THIN AND MOVE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
DECIDED TO ISSUE RFW FOR WESTERN OK AND WESTERN N TX WHERE WINDS
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AND RH LOW ENOUGH TO RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THERE...ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AFTER
INITIAL MIXING.

STILL EXPECT 50-80 PERCENT POPS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF OK THURS AS
A MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD...WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING IT. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL AT
LEAST SUPPORT HIGH PROBS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH THIS FEATURE. STILL A
BIT UNCLEAR ON HOW MUCH CAA WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR WITH THE
FRONT...BUT PRECIP/CLOUD COVER WILL DEFINITELY KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THURSDAY
SINCE ANY ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR FA.

RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END QUICKLY BY LATE THURS AS DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING REPLACES THE TROUGH AXIS. THEN...BY
SATURDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE SW CONUS AND GULF OF CA. AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY...WHILE THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS LIKELY
PASSES OVER DURING THE DAY EASTER SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH
CHC POPS/THUNDER LATE SAT THROUGH SUN WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNING AND A FRONT ALSO IN PLAY BY SUN. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE
SEVERE POTENTIAL RIGHT NOW...BUT SOUTHERN ZONES APPEAR TO BE
FAVORED FOR THE MOMENT WHERE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
STRONGER COMBINED WITH HIGHER INSTABILITY.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  46  60  46 /   0  10  70  20
HOBART OK         73  48  58  43 /   0  10  40  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  50  63  49 /   0  10  50  20
GAGE OK           74  42  56  37 /   0  30  70   0
PONCA CITY OK     68  43  57  41 /   0  10  70  10
DURANT OK         66  47  64  52 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ007-008-
     011>029-034-035-038.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ011-014>017-
     021>023-033>038-044.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>089.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 161110
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
610 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH THEY WILL SLOWLY DECREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON AND OFF THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH SOME BRIEF CLEARING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WIND GUSTS RANGE FROM AROUND 10 MPH UP TO 30 MPH FROM SE
TO NW RESPECTIVELY EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE KEEPING
TEMPS ELEVATED. BATCH OF CIRRUS CURRENTLY OVERHEAD ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THIN AND MOVE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
DECIDED TO ISSUE RFW FOR WESTERN OK AND WESTERN N TX WHERE WINDS
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AND RH LOW ENOUGH TO RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THERE...ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AFTER
INITIAL MIXING.

STILL EXPECT 50-80 PERCENT POPS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF OK THURS AS
A MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD...WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING IT. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL AT
LEAST SUPPORT HIGH PROBS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH THIS FEATURE. STILL A
BIT UNCLEAR ON HOW MUCH CAA WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR WITH THE
FRONT...BUT PRECIP/CLOUD COVER WILL DEFINITELY KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THURSDAY
SINCE ANY ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR FA.

RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END QUICKLY BY LATE THURS AS DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING REPLACES THE TROUGH AXIS. THEN...BY
SATURDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE SW CONUS AND GULF OF CA. AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY...WHILE THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS LIKELY
PASSES OVER DURING THE DAY EASTER SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH
CHC POPS/THUNDER LATE SAT THROUGH SUN WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNING AND A FRONT ALSO IN PLAY BY SUN. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE
SEVERE POTENTIAL RIGHT NOW...BUT SOUTHERN ZONES APPEAR TO BE
FAVORED FOR THE MOMENT WHERE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
STRONGER COMBINED WITH HIGHER INSTABILITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  70  46  60  46 /   0  10  70  20
HOBART OK         71  48  58  43 /   0  10  40  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  50  63  49 /   0  10  50  20
GAGE OK           73  42  56  37 /   0  30  70   0
PONCA CITY OK     70  43  57  41 /   0  10  70  10
DURANT OK         66  47  64  52 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR OKZ011-014>017-021>023-033>038-044.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR TXZ083>089.

&&

$$

30/03/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 161110
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
610 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH THEY WILL SLOWLY DECREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON AND OFF THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH SOME BRIEF CLEARING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WIND GUSTS RANGE FROM AROUND 10 MPH UP TO 30 MPH FROM SE
TO NW RESPECTIVELY EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE KEEPING
TEMPS ELEVATED. BATCH OF CIRRUS CURRENTLY OVERHEAD ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THIN AND MOVE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
DECIDED TO ISSUE RFW FOR WESTERN OK AND WESTERN N TX WHERE WINDS
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AND RH LOW ENOUGH TO RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THERE...ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AFTER
INITIAL MIXING.

STILL EXPECT 50-80 PERCENT POPS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF OK THURS AS
A MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD...WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING IT. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL AT
LEAST SUPPORT HIGH PROBS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH THIS FEATURE. STILL A
BIT UNCLEAR ON HOW MUCH CAA WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR WITH THE
FRONT...BUT PRECIP/CLOUD COVER WILL DEFINITELY KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THURSDAY
SINCE ANY ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR FA.

RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END QUICKLY BY LATE THURS AS DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING REPLACES THE TROUGH AXIS. THEN...BY
SATURDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE SW CONUS AND GULF OF CA. AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY...WHILE THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS LIKELY
PASSES OVER DURING THE DAY EASTER SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH
CHC POPS/THUNDER LATE SAT THROUGH SUN WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNING AND A FRONT ALSO IN PLAY BY SUN. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE
SEVERE POTENTIAL RIGHT NOW...BUT SOUTHERN ZONES APPEAR TO BE
FAVORED FOR THE MOMENT WHERE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
STRONGER COMBINED WITH HIGHER INSTABILITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  70  46  60  46 /   0  10  70  20
HOBART OK         71  48  58  43 /   0  10  40  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  50  63  49 /   0  10  50  20
GAGE OK           73  42  56  37 /   0  30  70   0
PONCA CITY OK     70  43  57  41 /   0  10  70  10
DURANT OK         66  47  64  52 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR OKZ011-014>017-021>023-033>038-044.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR TXZ083>089.

&&

$$

30/03/03



000
FXUS64 KTSA 161048
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
548 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LLWS AT ALL SITED
THIS MORNING BEFORE STRONG SOUTH WINDS MIX TO SURFACE...WITH GUSTS
OVER 25 KNOTS MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH AFTER 00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE A WINDY AND WARMER DAY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR RED FLAG CRITERIA IN
OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH ARE THE ONLY TWO
COUNTIES WITH THE RED FLAG SWITCH STILL ON. IT APPEARS THAT THE
WINDS MAY DROP OFF JUST ENOUGH BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TO KEEP
CONDITIONS JUST BELOW RED FLAG BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE.

MOST OF THE RAIN WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHEASTERLY THURSDAY WHICH WILL HELP HOLD LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN
PLACE AND ERODE THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD. AS A
RESULT...HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD AND HAVE ALSO
REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ072-OKZ074-
     OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...14








000
FXUS64 KOUN 161010
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
510 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WIND GUSTS RANGE FROM AROUND 10 MPH UP TO 30 MPH FROM SE
TO NW RESPECTIVELY EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE KEEPING
TEMPS ELEVATED. BATCH OF CIRRUS CURRENTLY OVERHEAD ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THIN AND MOVE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
DECIDED TO ISSUE RFW FOR WESTERN OK AND WESTERN N TX WHERE WINDS
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AND RH LOW ENOUGH TO RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THERE...ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AFTER
INITIAL MIXING.

STILL EXPECT 50-80 PERCENT POPS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF OK THURS AS
A MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD...WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING IT. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL AT
LEAST SUPPORT HIGH PROBS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH THIS FEATURE. STILL A
BIT UNCLEAR ON HOW MUCH CAA WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR WITH THE
FRONT...BUT PRECIP/CLOUD COVER WILL DEFINITELY KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THURSDAY
SINCE ANY ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR FA.

RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END QUICKLY BY LATE THURS AS DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING REPLACES THE TROUGH AXIS. THEN...BY
SATURDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE SW CONUS AND GULF OF CA. AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY...WHILE THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS LIKELY
PASSES OVER DURING THE DAY EASTER SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH
CHC POPS/THUNDER LATE SAT THROUGH SUN WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNING AND A FRONT ALSO IN PLAY BY SUN. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE
SEVERE POTENTIAL RIGHT NOW...BUT SOUTHERN ZONES APPEAR TO BE
FAVORED FOR THE MOMENT WHERE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
STRONGER COMBINED WITH HIGHER INSTABILITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  70  46  60  46 /   0  10  70  20
HOBART OK         71  48  58  43 /   0  10  40  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  50  63  49 /   0  10  50  20
GAGE OK           73  42  56  37 /   0  30  70   0
PONCA CITY OK     70  43  57  41 /   0  10  70  10
DURANT OK         66  47  64  52 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR OKZ011-014>017-021>023-033>038-044.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR TXZ083>089.

&&

$$

30/03



000
FXUS64 KOUN 161010
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
510 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WIND GUSTS RANGE FROM AROUND 10 MPH UP TO 30 MPH FROM SE
TO NW RESPECTIVELY EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE KEEPING
TEMPS ELEVATED. BATCH OF CIRRUS CURRENTLY OVERHEAD ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THIN AND MOVE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
DECIDED TO ISSUE RFW FOR WESTERN OK AND WESTERN N TX WHERE WINDS
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AND RH LOW ENOUGH TO RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THERE...ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AFTER
INITIAL MIXING.

STILL EXPECT 50-80 PERCENT POPS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF OK THURS AS
A MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD...WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING IT. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL AT
LEAST SUPPORT HIGH PROBS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH THIS FEATURE. STILL A
BIT UNCLEAR ON HOW MUCH CAA WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR WITH THE
FRONT...BUT PRECIP/CLOUD COVER WILL DEFINITELY KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THURSDAY
SINCE ANY ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR FA.

RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END QUICKLY BY LATE THURS AS DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING REPLACES THE TROUGH AXIS. THEN...BY
SATURDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE SW CONUS AND GULF OF CA. AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY...WHILE THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS LIKELY
PASSES OVER DURING THE DAY EASTER SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH
CHC POPS/THUNDER LATE SAT THROUGH SUN WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNING AND A FRONT ALSO IN PLAY BY SUN. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE
SEVERE POTENTIAL RIGHT NOW...BUT SOUTHERN ZONES APPEAR TO BE
FAVORED FOR THE MOMENT WHERE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
STRONGER COMBINED WITH HIGHER INSTABILITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  70  46  60  46 /   0  10  70  20
HOBART OK         71  48  58  43 /   0  10  40  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  50  63  49 /   0  10  50  20
GAGE OK           73  42  56  37 /   0  30  70   0
PONCA CITY OK     70  43  57  41 /   0  10  70  10
DURANT OK         66  47  64  52 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR OKZ011-014>017-021>023-033>038-044.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR TXZ083>089.

&&

$$

30/03




000
FXUS64 KTSA 160911
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
411 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE A WINDY AND WARMER DAY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR RED FLAG CRITERIA IN
OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH ARE THE ONLY TWO
COUNTIES WITH THE RED FLAG SWITCH STILL ON. IT APPEARS THAT THE
WINDS MAY DROP OFF JUST ENOUGH BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TO KEEP
CONDITIONS JUST BELOW RED FLAG BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE.

MOST OF THE RAIN WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHEASTERLY THURSDAY WHICH WILL HELP HOLD LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN
PLACE AND ERODE THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD. AS A
RESULT...HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD AND HAVE ALSO
REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  42  65  44 /   0  10  40  20
FSM   65  41  70  46 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   66  42  68  47 /   0   0  30  20
BVO   69  40  63  40 /  10  10  50  20
FYV   61  37  65  41 /   0   0  20  20
BYV   61  37  65  41 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   66  40  67  46 /   0   0  30  20
MIO   66  40  64  40 /   0  10  30  20
F10   66  42  66  46 /   0   0  40  20
HHW   64  41  67  47 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ072-OKZ074-
     OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....05

PLATE






000
FXUS64 KTSA 160417
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1117 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
LLWS TO IMPACT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...WITH SURFACE
WINDS INCREASING AFTER 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
ALL SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 831 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS PRETTY WELL ON TRACK. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE SKY AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO BLEND IN CURRENT CONDITIONS AND THE
NEWEST MODEL DATA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
LLWS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR ALL SITES OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MILD CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AFTER A VERY COLD START THIS
MORNING WITH A HARD FREEZE OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. AREAS
OF FROST WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL OFF INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES. WILL THEREFORE
GO AHEAD AN ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

HIGH FIRE DANGER EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS DEVELOP WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
APPROACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA OF 25 PERCENT ACROSS OSAGE AND
PAWNEE COUNTIES. FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF ON FIRE WEATHER WATCH
BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED ON SUBSEQUENT FORECAST.
REGARDLESS...SPREAD INDICES WILL BE HIGH IN ANY AREAS THAT HAVE
NOT GREENED UP SIGNIFICANTLY.

NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SHOWERS LIKELY ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT. INSTABILITIES...ELEVATED
OR OTHERWISE...APPEAR MARGINAL...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER FOR MOST AREAS.

MILD DAY EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BEFORE WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN INCREASING. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO MEX GUIDANCE LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   38  67  44  61 /  10  10  10  60
FSM   35  65  42  67 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   37  67  43  66 /   0   0  10  30
BVO   33  69  40  58 /  10  10  10  60
FYV   32  61  37  63 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   32  61  38  64 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   36  66  41  63 /   0  10  10  50
MIO   36  66  40  61 /  10  10  10  50
F10   37  66  43  63 /   0  10  10  50
HHW   35  65  42  67 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ072-OKZ074-
     OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...18






000
FXUS64 KOUN 160414
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1114 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS AND
SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. A SFC TROUGH MOVING INTO NW OK WED
AFTN/EVENING WILL DECREASE WIND SPEEDS AND CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

UPDATE...
EXPANDED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH NORTH AND EAST FOR
WEDNESDAY. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AND SKY
COVER TONIGHT. LOWERED DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY.

DISCUSSION...
DRY...BREEZY...AND NOT AS COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TONIGHT. DRY AND BREEZY TO WINDY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY.

THINK LOWS WILL BE A BIT TOO WARM TONIGHT TO SUPPORT FROST
FORMATION ACROSS THE AREA...INCLUDING SHELTERED AREAS NEAR
DURANT...ATOKA...AND COALGATE.

LATEST RAP13/NAM12 SEEMS TO BE DEPICTING LOWER HUMIDITY
AND STRONGER WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY. CURRENT DEWPOINTS SEEM TO BE
LOWER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE. THUS ADJUSTED THE FORECAST. WINDS MAY
BE NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA 10 AM TO 5 PM FROM LAWTON TO
OKLAHOMA CITY TO PONCA CITY WITH SEVERAL GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH
POSSIBLE. WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY.

MBS

FIRE WEATHER...
BASED ON STRONGER WINDS AND LOWER HUMIDITY FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY...EXPANDED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. ADJUSTED THE
WATCH PRODUCT ACCORDINGLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
0Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
STRONGER WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS WILL
CERTAINLY ADD A CHILL TO THE AIR.

WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
ELEVATE THE RISK OF WILDFIRES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  WILL ADD
A FEW MORE COUNTIES TO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

A COLD FRONT AND TROUGH WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR RAIN
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE FA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA.

RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  41  70  47  59 /   0   0  10  60
HOBART OK         40  72  51  56 /   0   0  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  71  52  61 /   0   0  10  30
GAGE OK           42  74  46  55 /   0   0  20  60
PONCA CITY OK     41  71  45  58 /   0   0  10  70
DURANT OK         39  67  47  64 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR OKZ007-008-011>019-021>024-033>038-044.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ083>089.

&&

$$

17/25/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 160258 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
958 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
EXPANDED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH NORTH AND EAST FOR
WEDNESDAY. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AND SKY
COVER TONIGHT. LOWERED DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY...BREEZY...AND NOT AS COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TONIGHT. DRY AND BREEZY TO WINDY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY.

THINK LOWS WILL BE A BIT TOO WARM TONIGHT TO SUPPORT FROST
FORMATION ACROSS THE AREA...INCLUDING SHELTERED AREAS NEAR
DURANT...ATOKA...AND COALGATE.

LATEST RAP13/NAM12 SEEMS TO BE DEPICTING LOWER HUMIDITY
AND STRONGER WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY. CURRENT DEWPOINTS SEEM TO BE
LOWER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE. THUS ADJUSTED THE FORECAST. WINDS MAY
BE NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA 10 AM TO 5 PM FROM LAWTON TO
OKLAHOMA CITY TO PONCA CITY WITH SEVERAL GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH
POSSIBLE. WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY.

MBS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BASED ON STRONGER WINDS AND LOWER HUMIDITY FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY...EXPANDED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. ADJUSTED THE
WATCH PRODUCT ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
0Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
STRONGER WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS WILL
CERTAINLY ADD A CHILL TO THE AIR.

WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
ELEVATE THE RISK OF WILDFIRES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  WILL ADD
A FEW MORE COUNTIES TO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

A COLD FRONT AND TROUGH WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR RAIN
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE FA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA.

RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  41  70  47  59 /   0   0  10  60
HOBART OK         40  72  51  56 /   0   0  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  71  52  61 /   0   0  10  30
GAGE OK           42  74  46  55 /   0   0  20  60
PONCA CITY OK     41  71  45  58 /   0   0  10  70
DURANT OK         39  67  47  64 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR OKZ007-008-011>019-021>024-033>038-044.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ083>089.

&&

$$

17/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 160258 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
958 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
EXPANDED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH NORTH AND EAST FOR
WEDNESDAY. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AND SKY
COVER TONIGHT. LOWERED DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY...BREEZY...AND NOT AS COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TONIGHT. DRY AND BREEZY TO WINDY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY.

THINK LOWS WILL BE A BIT TOO WARM TONIGHT TO SUPPORT FROST
FORMATION ACROSS THE AREA...INCLUDING SHELTERED AREAS NEAR
DURANT...ATOKA...AND COALGATE.

LATEST RAP13/NAM12 SEEMS TO BE DEPICTING LOWER HUMIDITY
AND STRONGER WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY. CURRENT DEWPOINTS SEEM TO BE
LOWER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE. THUS ADJUSTED THE FORECAST. WINDS MAY
BE NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA 10 AM TO 5 PM FROM LAWTON TO
OKLAHOMA CITY TO PONCA CITY WITH SEVERAL GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH
POSSIBLE. WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY.

MBS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BASED ON STRONGER WINDS AND LOWER HUMIDITY FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY...EXPANDED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. ADJUSTED THE
WATCH PRODUCT ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
0Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
STRONGER WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS WILL
CERTAINLY ADD A CHILL TO THE AIR.

WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
ELEVATE THE RISK OF WILDFIRES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  WILL ADD
A FEW MORE COUNTIES TO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

A COLD FRONT AND TROUGH WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR RAIN
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE FA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA.

RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  41  70  47  59 /   0   0  10  60
HOBART OK         40  72  51  56 /   0   0  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  71  52  61 /   0   0  10  30
GAGE OK           42  74  46  55 /   0   0  20  60
PONCA CITY OK     41  71  45  58 /   0   0  10  70
DURANT OK         39  67  47  64 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR OKZ007-008-011>019-021>024-033>038-044.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ083>089.

&&

$$

17/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 160258 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
958 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
EXPANDED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH NORTH AND EAST FOR
WEDNESDAY. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AND SKY
COVER TONIGHT. LOWERED DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY...BREEZY...AND NOT AS COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TONIGHT. DRY AND BREEZY TO WINDY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY.

THINK LOWS WILL BE A BIT TOO WARM TONIGHT TO SUPPORT FROST
FORMATION ACROSS THE AREA...INCLUDING SHELTERED AREAS NEAR
DURANT...ATOKA...AND COALGATE.

LATEST RAP13/NAM12 SEEMS TO BE DEPICTING LOWER HUMIDITY
AND STRONGER WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY. CURRENT DEWPOINTS SEEM TO BE
LOWER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE. THUS ADJUSTED THE FORECAST. WINDS MAY
BE NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA 10 AM TO 5 PM FROM LAWTON TO
OKLAHOMA CITY TO PONCA CITY WITH SEVERAL GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH
POSSIBLE. WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY.

MBS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BASED ON STRONGER WINDS AND LOWER HUMIDITY FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY...EXPANDED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. ADJUSTED THE
WATCH PRODUCT ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
0Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
STRONGER WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS WILL
CERTAINLY ADD A CHILL TO THE AIR.

WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
ELEVATE THE RISK OF WILDFIRES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  WILL ADD
A FEW MORE COUNTIES TO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

A COLD FRONT AND TROUGH WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR RAIN
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE FA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA.

RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  41  70  47  59 /   0   0  10  60
HOBART OK         40  72  51  56 /   0   0  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  71  52  61 /   0   0  10  30
GAGE OK           42  74  46  55 /   0   0  20  60
PONCA CITY OK     41  71  45  58 /   0   0  10  70
DURANT OK         39  67  47  64 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR OKZ007-008-011>019-021>024-033>038-044.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ083>089.

&&

$$

17/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 160258 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
958 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
EXPANDED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH NORTH AND EAST FOR
WEDNESDAY. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AND SKY
COVER TONIGHT. LOWERED DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY...BREEZY...AND NOT AS COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TONIGHT. DRY AND BREEZY TO WINDY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY.

THINK LOWS WILL BE A BIT TOO WARM TONIGHT TO SUPPORT FROST
FORMATION ACROSS THE AREA...INCLUDING SHELTERED AREAS NEAR
DURANT...ATOKA...AND COALGATE.

LATEST RAP13/NAM12 SEEMS TO BE DEPICTING LOWER HUMIDITY
AND STRONGER WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY. CURRENT DEWPOINTS SEEM TO BE
LOWER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE. THUS ADJUSTED THE FORECAST. WINDS MAY
BE NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA 10 AM TO 5 PM FROM LAWTON TO
OKLAHOMA CITY TO PONCA CITY WITH SEVERAL GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH
POSSIBLE. WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY.

MBS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BASED ON STRONGER WINDS AND LOWER HUMIDITY FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY...EXPANDED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. ADJUSTED THE
WATCH PRODUCT ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
0Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
STRONGER WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS WILL
CERTAINLY ADD A CHILL TO THE AIR.

WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
ELEVATE THE RISK OF WILDFIRES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  WILL ADD
A FEW MORE COUNTIES TO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

A COLD FRONT AND TROUGH WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR RAIN
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE FA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA.

RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  41  70  47  59 /   0   0  10  60
HOBART OK         40  72  51  56 /   0   0  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  71  52  61 /   0   0  10  30
GAGE OK           42  74  46  55 /   0   0  20  60
PONCA CITY OK     41  71  45  58 /   0   0  10  70
DURANT OK         39  67  47  64 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR OKZ007-008-011>019-021>024-033>038-044.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ083>089.

&&

$$

17/25



000
FXUS64 KTSA 160131
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
831 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS PRETTY WELL ON TRACK. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE SKY AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO BLEND IN CURRENT CONDITIONS AND THE
NEWEST MODEL DATA.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
LLWS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR ALL SITES OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MILD CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AFTER A VERY COLD START THIS
MORNING WITH A HARD FREEZE OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. AREAS
OF FROST WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL OFF INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES. WILL THEREFORE
GO AHEAD AN ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

HIGH FIRE DANGER EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS DEVELOP WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
APPROACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA OF 25 PERCENT ACROSS OSAGE AND
PAWNEE COUNTIES. FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF ON FIRE WEATHER WATCH
BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED ON SUBSEQUENT FORECAST.
REGARDLESS...SPREAD INDICES WILL BE HIGH IN ANY AREAS THAT HAVE
NOT GREENED UP SIGNIFICANTLY.

NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SHOWERS LIKELY ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT. INSTABILITIES...ELEVATED
OR OTHERWISE...APPEAR MARGINAL...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER FOR MOST AREAS.

MILD DAY EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BEFORE WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN INCREASING. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO MEX GUIDANCE LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ072-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 152320
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
620 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
LLWS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR ALL SITES OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MILD CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AFTER A VERY COLD START THIS
MORNING WITH A HARD FREEZE OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. AREAS
OF FROST WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL OFF INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES. WILL THEREFORE
GO AHEAD AN ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

HIGH FIRE DANGER EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS DEVELOP WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
APPROACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA OF 25 PERCENT ACROSS OSAGE AND
PAWNEE COUNTIES. FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF ON FIRE WEATHER WATCH
BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED ON SUBSEQUENT FORECAST.
REGARDLESS...SPREAD INDICES WILL BE HIGH IN ANY AREAS THAT HAVE
NOT GREENED UP SIGNIFICANTLY.

NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SHOWERS LIKELY ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT. INSTABILITIES...ELEVATED
OR OTHERWISE...APPEAR MARGINAL...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER FOR MOST AREAS.

MILD DAY EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BEFORE WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN INCREASING. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO MEX GUIDANCE LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   38  67  44  61 /  10  10  10  60
FSM   35  65  42  67 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   37  67  43  66 /   0   0  10  30
BVO   33  69  40  58 /  10  10  10  60
FYV   32  61  37  63 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   32  61  38  64 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   36  66  41  63 /   0  10  10  50
MIO   36  66  40  61 /  10  10  10  50
F10   37  66  43  63 /   0  10  10  50
HHW   35  65  42  67 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ072-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...18






000
FXUS64 KOUN 152314
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
614 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
0Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
STRONGER WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS WILL
CERTAINLY ADD A CHILL TO THE AIR.

WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
ELEVATE THE RISK OF WILDFIRES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  WILL ADD
A FEW MORE COUNTIES TO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

A COLD FRONT AND TROUGH WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR RAIN
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE FA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA.

RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  41  70  47  59 /   0   0  10  60
HOBART OK         40  72  51  56 /   0   0  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  71  52  61 /   0   0  10  30
GAGE OK           42  74  46  55 /   0   0  20  60
PONCA CITY OK     41  71  45  58 /   0   0  10  70
DURANT OK         39  67  47  64 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR OKZ014-016-021-022-033>037.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ083>089.

&&

$$

17/25/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 152314
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
614 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
0Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
STRONGER WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS WILL
CERTAINLY ADD A CHILL TO THE AIR.

WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
ELEVATE THE RISK OF WILDFIRES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  WILL ADD
A FEW MORE COUNTIES TO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

A COLD FRONT AND TROUGH WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR RAIN
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE FA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA.

RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  41  70  47  59 /   0   0  10  60
HOBART OK         40  72  51  56 /   0   0  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  71  52  61 /   0   0  10  30
GAGE OK           42  74  46  55 /   0   0  20  60
PONCA CITY OK     41  71  45  58 /   0   0  10  70
DURANT OK         39  67  47  64 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR OKZ014-016-021-022-033>037.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ083>089.

&&

$$

17/25/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 151944
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
244 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
STRONGER WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS WILL
CERTAINLY ADD A CHILL TO THE AIR.

WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
ELEVATE THE RISK OF WILDFIRES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  WILL ADD
A FEW MORE COUNTIES TO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

A COLD FRONT AND TROUGH WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR RAIN
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE FA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA.

RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  41  70  47  59 /   0   0  10  60
HOBART OK         40  72  51  56 /   0   0  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  71  52  61 /   0   0  10  30
GAGE OK           42  74  46  55 /   0   0  20  60
PONCA CITY OK     41  71  45  58 /   0   0  10  70
DURANT OK         39  67  47  64 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR OKZ014-016-021-022-033>037.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ083>089.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 151944
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
244 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
STRONGER WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS WILL
CERTAINLY ADD A CHILL TO THE AIR.

WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
ELEVATE THE RISK OF WILDFIRES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  WILL ADD
A FEW MORE COUNTIES TO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

A COLD FRONT AND TROUGH WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR RAIN
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE FA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA.

RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  41  70  47  59 /   0   0  10  60
HOBART OK         40  72  51  56 /   0   0  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  71  52  61 /   0   0  10  30
GAGE OK           42  74  46  55 /   0   0  20  60
PONCA CITY OK     41  71  45  58 /   0   0  10  70
DURANT OK         39  67  47  64 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR OKZ014-016-021-022-033>037.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ083>089.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 151944
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
244 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MILD CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AFTER A VERY COLD START THIS
MORNING WITH A HARD FREEZE OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. AREAS
OF FROST WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL OFF INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES. WILL THEREFORE
GO AHEAD AN ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

HIGH FIRE DANGER EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS DEVELOP WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
APPROACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA OF 25 PERCENT ACROSS OSAGE AND
PAWNEE COUNTIES. FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF ON FIRE WEATHER WATCH
BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED ON SUBSEQUENT FORECAST.
REGARDLESS...SPREAD INDICES WILL BE HIGH IN ANY AREAS THAT HAVE
NOT GREENED UP SIGNIFICANTLY.

NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SHOWERS LIKELY ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT. INSTABILITIES...ELEVATED
OR OTHERWISE...APPEAR MARGINAL...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER FOR MOST AREAS.

MILD DAY EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BEFORE WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN INCREASING. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO MEX GUIDANCE LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   38  67  44  61 /  10  10  10  60
FSM   35  65  42  67 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   37  67  43  66 /   0   0  10  30
BVO   33  69  40  58 /  10  10  10  60
FYV   32  61  37  63 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   32  61  38  64 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   36  66  41  63 /   0  10  10  50
MIO   36  66  40  61 /  10  10  10  50
F10   37  66  43  63 /   0  10  10  50
HHW   35  65  42  67 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ072-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ002-
     ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....12






000
FXUS64 KOUN 151944
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
244 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
STRONGER WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS WILL
CERTAINLY ADD A CHILL TO THE AIR.

WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
ELEVATE THE RISK OF WILDFIRES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  WILL ADD
A FEW MORE COUNTIES TO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

A COLD FRONT AND TROUGH WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR RAIN
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE FA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA.

RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  41  70  47  59 /   0   0  10  60
HOBART OK         40  72  51  56 /   0   0  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  71  52  61 /   0   0  10  30
GAGE OK           42  74  46  55 /   0   0  20  60
PONCA CITY OK     41  71  45  58 /   0   0  10  70
DURANT OK         39  67  47  64 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR OKZ014-016-021-022-033>037.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ083>089.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 151944
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
244 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MILD CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AFTER A VERY COLD START THIS
MORNING WITH A HARD FREEZE OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. AREAS
OF FROST WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL OFF INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES. WILL THEREFORE
GO AHEAD AN ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

HIGH FIRE DANGER EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS DEVELOP WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
APPROACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA OF 25 PERCENT ACROSS OSAGE AND
PAWNEE COUNTIES. FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF ON FIRE WEATHER WATCH
BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED ON SUBSEQUENT FORECAST.
REGARDLESS...SPREAD INDICES WILL BE HIGH IN ANY AREAS THAT HAVE
NOT GREENED UP SIGNIFICANTLY.

NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SHOWERS LIKELY ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT. INSTABILITIES...ELEVATED
OR OTHERWISE...APPEAR MARGINAL...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER FOR MOST AREAS.

MILD DAY EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BEFORE WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN INCREASING. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO MEX GUIDANCE LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   38  67  44  61 /  10  10  10  60
FSM   35  65  42  67 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   37  67  43  66 /   0   0  10  30
BVO   33  69  40  58 /  10  10  10  60
FYV   32  61  37  63 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   32  61  38  64 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   36  66  41  63 /   0  10  10  50
MIO   36  66  40  61 /  10  10  10  50
F10   37  66  43  63 /   0  10  10  50
HHW   35  65  42  67 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ072-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ002-
     ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....12






000
FXUS64 KOUN 151739
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1239 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BECOME
GUSTY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
LLWS MAY IMPACT TERMINALS ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FROM 9-15Z
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  41  69  47  60 /   0   0  10  60
HOBART OK         40  72  46  59 /   0   0  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  72  49  68 /   0   0  10  30
GAGE OK           42  74  42  49 /   0   0  20  60
PONCA CITY OK     41  71  43  60 /   0   0  10  70
DURANT OK         39  68  47  63 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR OKZ014-021-033-034-036-037.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ083>085-087-088.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 151739
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1239 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BECOME
GUSTY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
LLWS MAY IMPACT TERMINALS ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FROM 9-15Z
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  41  69  47  60 /   0   0  10  60
HOBART OK         40  72  46  59 /   0   0  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  72  49  68 /   0   0  10  30
GAGE OK           42  74  42  49 /   0   0  20  60
PONCA CITY OK     41  71  43  60 /   0   0  10  70
DURANT OK         39  68  47  63 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR OKZ014-021-033-034-036-037.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ083>085-087-088.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 151714
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1214 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
LLWS HAS BEEN ADDED AT ALL SITES BEGINNING IN THE 03Z-06Z TIME FRAME.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SENT A ZFP QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES FROM
THE AS NPW HAS EXPIRED...AND TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ENSUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY...AND
WILL AID A QUICK WARM UP. WILL MONITOR TEMP TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE
LATE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23






000
FXUS64 KOUN 151605
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1105 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY FOR THE RAPID WARM-UP THIS
MORNING; OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. GUSTY
SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  64  41  69  47 /   0   0   0  10
HOBART OK         65  40  72  46 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  67  41  72  49 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK           66  42  74  42 /   0   0   0  20
PONCA CITY OK     65  41  71  43 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         62  39  68  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR OKZ014-021-033-034-036-037.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ083>085-087-088.

&&

$$

09/06




000
FXUS64 KOUN 151605
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1105 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY FOR THE RAPID WARM-UP THIS
MORNING; OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. GUSTY
SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  64  41  69  47 /   0   0   0  10
HOBART OK         65  40  72  46 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  67  41  72  49 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK           66  42  74  42 /   0   0   0  20
PONCA CITY OK     65  41  71  43 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         62  39  68  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR OKZ014-021-033-034-036-037.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ083>085-087-088.

&&

$$

09/06



000
FXUS64 KTSA 151414
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
914 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SENT A ZFP QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES FROM
THE AS NPW HAS EXPIRED...AND TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ENSUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY...AND
WILL AID A QUICK WARM UP. WILL MONITOR TEMP TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE
LATE MORNING UPDATE.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....12






000
FXUS64 KOUN 151120
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
620 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO
AROUND 10 TO 20 KT. SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CLEAR. THE WINDS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED NEAR 15 KT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPS HAVE DROPPED BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A 1028 MB SFC HIGH. A HARD FREEZE/FREEZE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM. LATER TODAY...THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE
SE AND A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES ITS
WAY INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE
60S WITH SSW SFC FLOW RETURNING. A STOUT SSW LLJ WILL DEVELOP
TOMORROW MORNING AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WAVE PASSES WELL
NORTH OF US AND A MINOR MID LEVEL PERTURBATION ENTERS NM. EVEN
WITH RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER STILL IN PLACE...ELEVATED SFC
WINDS AND SOME CIRRUS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN
ANTICIPATED SO WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN CONSMOS.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SEWD INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY WED EVE. A SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN NEAR THE
CAPROCK AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS A RESULT. HAVE
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF W OK AND W N TX FOR
WED SINCE TEMPS SHOULD BE BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY THEN
WITH MIN RH NEAR 15 TO 20 PERCENT. THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL
ENTER THE PANHANDLE REGION BY THURS AM AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO NW OK. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE...SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE...AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST LIKELY
POPS THURS ALONG AND NORTH OF I40 ESPECIALLY IF FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY AS GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THURS MAINLY ACROSS N/C OK WHERE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
PASS OVER. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY THURS DEPENDING ON BOTH THE AMOUNT
OF CAA AND PRECIP LOCATIONS...BUT DID DROP THEM A BIT ACROSS NW OK
WHERE RAINFALL AND THICKEST CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY HAVE BIGGEST
IMPACT.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL FOLLOW FOR FRI AND TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK
INTO THE 60S AND 70S AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM MID TO UPPER
TROUGH. THIS FEATURE...AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF
IT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WILL RESULT IN OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS INTO THE 30-40 RANGE
SAT-SUN AS THIS PATTERN IS USUALLY FAVORABLE FOR RAINFALL AND
ANOTHER BOUNDARY MAY ALSO COME INTO PLAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  41  69  47 /   0   0   0  10
HOBART OK         65  40  72  46 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  41  72  49 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK           67  42  74  42 /   0   0   0  20
PONCA CITY OK     65  41  71  43 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         63  39  68  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ004>025-
     027-033>038-044.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR OKZ014-021-033-034-036-037.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ026-028>032-
     039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ083>089.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ083>085-087-088.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ090.

&&

$$

30/03/03



000
FXUS64 KOUN 151120
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
620 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO
AROUND 10 TO 20 KT. SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CLEAR. THE WINDS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED NEAR 15 KT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPS HAVE DROPPED BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A 1028 MB SFC HIGH. A HARD FREEZE/FREEZE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM. LATER TODAY...THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE
SE AND A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES ITS
WAY INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE
60S WITH SSW SFC FLOW RETURNING. A STOUT SSW LLJ WILL DEVELOP
TOMORROW MORNING AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WAVE PASSES WELL
NORTH OF US AND A MINOR MID LEVEL PERTURBATION ENTERS NM. EVEN
WITH RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER STILL IN PLACE...ELEVATED SFC
WINDS AND SOME CIRRUS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN
ANTICIPATED SO WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN CONSMOS.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SEWD INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY WED EVE. A SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN NEAR THE
CAPROCK AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS A RESULT. HAVE
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF W OK AND W N TX FOR
WED SINCE TEMPS SHOULD BE BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY THEN
WITH MIN RH NEAR 15 TO 20 PERCENT. THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL
ENTER THE PANHANDLE REGION BY THURS AM AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO NW OK. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE...SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE...AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST LIKELY
POPS THURS ALONG AND NORTH OF I40 ESPECIALLY IF FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY AS GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THURS MAINLY ACROSS N/C OK WHERE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
PASS OVER. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY THURS DEPENDING ON BOTH THE AMOUNT
OF CAA AND PRECIP LOCATIONS...BUT DID DROP THEM A BIT ACROSS NW OK
WHERE RAINFALL AND THICKEST CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY HAVE BIGGEST
IMPACT.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL FOLLOW FOR FRI AND TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK
INTO THE 60S AND 70S AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM MID TO UPPER
TROUGH. THIS FEATURE...AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF
IT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WILL RESULT IN OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS INTO THE 30-40 RANGE
SAT-SUN AS THIS PATTERN IS USUALLY FAVORABLE FOR RAINFALL AND
ANOTHER BOUNDARY MAY ALSO COME INTO PLAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  41  69  47 /   0   0   0  10
HOBART OK         65  40  72  46 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  41  72  49 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK           67  42  74  42 /   0   0   0  20
PONCA CITY OK     65  41  71  43 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         63  39  68  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ004>025-
     027-033>038-044.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR OKZ014-021-033-034-036-037.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ026-028>032-
     039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ083>089.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ083>085-087-088.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ090.

&&

$$

30/03/03




000
FXUS64 KTSA 151049
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
549 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AFTER WATCHING A BEAUTIFUL SPECTACLE OCCUR IN THE NIGHT SKY...IT`S
NOW TIME TO TALK WEATHER DOWN HERE ON PLANET EARTH. A BEAUTIFUL
SPRING DAY IS IN STORE WITH NOT MUCH WIND AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.
THERE WILL BE MUCH MORE WIND ON WEDNESDAY AND HIGHS CLIMB A BIT
MORE...RAISING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. AN UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY. THE TRUE WARM SECTOR
NEVER MAKES MUCH NORTHWARD PROGRESS...STAYING WELL SOUTH DOWN IN
TX. INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING AS A RESULT AND HAVE BACKED DOWN
THUNDER PROBS. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES LOOK GOOD AS LIFT INTERACTS
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GOING FORECAST POPS LOOKED GOOD WITH THE
TIMING AND TRENDS. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE PATTERN LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM...WITH RIDGING MAINTAINED DOWN NEAR THE GULF
COAST. SO NOT TOO IMPRESSED REGARDING SEVERE CHANCES WITH EITHER
SYSTEM REALLY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. TEMPS WILL WARM
BACK INTO THE 70S NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...14








000
FXUS64 KOUN 151008
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
508 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPS HAVE DROPPED BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A 1028 MB SFC HIGH. A HARD FREEZE/FREEZE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM. LATER TODAY...THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE
SE AND A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES ITS
WAY INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE
60S WITH SSW SFC FLOW RETURNING. A STOUT SSW LLJ WILL DEVELOP
TOMORROW MORNING AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WAVE PASSES WELL
NORTH OF US AND A MINOR MID LEVEL PERTURBATION ENTERS NM. EVEN
WITH RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER STILL IN PLACE...ELEVATED SFC
WINDS AND SOME CIRRUS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN
ANTICIPATED SO WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN CONSMOS.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SEWD INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY WED EVE. A SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN NEAR THE
CAPROCK AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS A RESULT. HAVE
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF W OK AND W N TX FOR
WED SINCE TEMPS SHOULD BE BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY THEN
WITH MIN RH NEAR 15 TO 20 PERCENT. THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL
ENTER THE PANHANDLE REGION BY THURS AM AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO NW OK. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE...SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE...AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST LIKELY
POPS THURS ALONG AND NORTH OF I40 ESPECIALLY IF FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY AS GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THURS MAINLY ACROSS N/C OK WHERE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
PASS OVER. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY THURS DEPENDING ON BOTH THE AMOUNT
OF CAA AND PRECIP LOCATIONS...BUT DID DROP THEM A BIT ACROSS NW OK
WHERE RAINFALL AND THICKEST CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY HAVE BIGGEST
IMPACT.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL FOLLOW FOR FRI AND TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK
INTO THE 60S AND 70S AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM MID TO UPPER
TROUGH. THIS FEATURE...AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF
IT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WILL RESULT IN OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS INTO THE 30-40 RANGE
SAT-SUN AS THIS PATTERN IS USUALLY FAVORABLE FOR RAINFALL AND
ANOTHER BOUNDARY MAY ALSO COME INTO PLAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  41  69  47 /   0   0   0  10
HOBART OK         65  40  72  46 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  41  72  49 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK           67  42  74  42 /   0   0   0  20
PONCA CITY OK     65  41  71  43 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         63  39  68  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ004>025-
     027-033>038-044.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ026-028>032-
     039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ083>089.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ090.

&&

$$

30/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 151008
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
508 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPS HAVE DROPPED BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A 1028 MB SFC HIGH. A HARD FREEZE/FREEZE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM. LATER TODAY...THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE
SE AND A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES ITS
WAY INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE
60S WITH SSW SFC FLOW RETURNING. A STOUT SSW LLJ WILL DEVELOP
TOMORROW MORNING AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WAVE PASSES WELL
NORTH OF US AND A MINOR MID LEVEL PERTURBATION ENTERS NM. EVEN
WITH RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER STILL IN PLACE...ELEVATED SFC
WINDS AND SOME CIRRUS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN
ANTICIPATED SO WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN CONSMOS.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SEWD INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY WED EVE. A SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN NEAR THE
CAPROCK AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS A RESULT. HAVE
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF W OK AND W N TX FOR
WED SINCE TEMPS SHOULD BE BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY THEN
WITH MIN RH NEAR 15 TO 20 PERCENT. THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL
ENTER THE PANHANDLE REGION BY THURS AM AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO NW OK. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE...SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE...AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST LIKELY
POPS THURS ALONG AND NORTH OF I40 ESPECIALLY IF FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY AS GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THURS MAINLY ACROSS N/C OK WHERE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
PASS OVER. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY THURS DEPENDING ON BOTH THE AMOUNT
OF CAA AND PRECIP LOCATIONS...BUT DID DROP THEM A BIT ACROSS NW OK
WHERE RAINFALL AND THICKEST CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY HAVE BIGGEST
IMPACT.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL FOLLOW FOR FRI AND TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK
INTO THE 60S AND 70S AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM MID TO UPPER
TROUGH. THIS FEATURE...AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF
IT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WILL RESULT IN OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS INTO THE 30-40 RANGE
SAT-SUN AS THIS PATTERN IS USUALLY FAVORABLE FOR RAINFALL AND
ANOTHER BOUNDARY MAY ALSO COME INTO PLAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  41  69  47 /   0   0   0  10
HOBART OK         65  40  72  46 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  41  72  49 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK           67  42  74  42 /   0   0   0  20
PONCA CITY OK     65  41  71  43 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         63  39  68  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ004>025-
     027-033>038-044.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ026-028>032-
     039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ083>089.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ090.

&&

$$

30/03



000
FXUS64 KTSA 150902
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
402 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER WATCHING A BEAUTIFUL SPECTACLE OCCUR IN THE NIGHT SKY...IT`S
NOW TIME TO TALK WEATHER DOWN HERE ON PLANET EARTH. A BEAUTIFUL
SPRING DAY IS IN STORE WITH NOT MUCH WIND AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.
THERE WILL BE MUCH MORE WIND ON WEDNESDAY AND HIGHS CLIMB A BIT
MORE...RAISING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. AN UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY. THE TRUE WARM SECTOR
NEVER MAKES MUCH NORTHWARD PROGRESS...STAYING WELL SOUTH DOWN IN
TX. INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING AS A RESULT AND HAVE BACKED DOWN
THUNDER PROBS. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES LOOK GOOD AS LIFT INTERACTS
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GOING FORECAST POPS LOOKED GOOD WITH THE
TIMING AND TRENDS. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE PATTERN LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM...WITH RIDGING MAINTAINED DOWN NEAR THE GULF
COAST. SO NOT TOO IMPRESSED REGARDING SEVERE CHANCES WITH EITHER
SYSTEM REALLY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. TEMPS WILL WARM
BACK INTO THE 70S NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  42  67  46 /   0   0  10  10
FSM   61  38  66  43 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   62  42  66  45 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   63  39  68  45 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   58  34  61  42 /   0   0  10  10
BYV   56  36  62  40 /   0   0  10  10
MKO   61  39  66  45 /   0   0  10  10
MIO   60  38  66  43 /   0   0  10  10
F10   62  41  65  46 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   62  39  66  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

LONG TERM....30






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