Home > Products > State Listing > Oklahoma Data
Latest:
 AFDOUN |  AFDTSA |
  [top]

000
FXUS64 KTSA 010426
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1126 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The 06z TAF discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Storms currently moving thru NW AR will stay east of the TAF
sites, with the possible exception of KROG. This activity should
be done by 09z. It is unclear exactly how things will evolve with
the convection out to the west on the high Plains. Will use the
latest guidance from the hi-res HRRRX, which suggests that the
remnants (or possibly even an MCV) will move into NE OK Friday
morning. Potential for storms increases by midday into the
afternoon at all of the sites and have elected to cover with
PROB30 groups. Convection will taper off Friday night with the
best chances north of the Kansas/Missouri borders.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 912 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Much of the convection across northeast Oklahoma has
become outflow dominated and along with loss of daytime heating...has
diminished in areal coverage an intensity. Will keep higher pops
through 06z across northwest Arkansas with some stronger storms to
move into that area from sw Missouri. Otherwise...not much focus
for convection after 06z...but will leave slight chance pops in
for areas north of Interstate 40. Have lowered temps near the
Kansas border down a degree or so as slightly cooler air has
settled in those locations...however temp adjustments should
remain transparent in the zone text.

Updated ZFP/PFM/AFM already sent.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.

$$


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  89  73  96 /  20  40  20   0
FSM   74  94  74  96 /  10  20  20   0
MLC   71  93  73  95 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   69  85  70  93 /  20  50  30  20
FYV   69  86  70  90 /  40  40  20  20
BYV   69  85  69  88 /  40  50  20  30
MKO   73  91  72  95 /  20  20  10   0
MIO   69  85  68  91 /  20  50  40  30
F10   73  91  73  94 /  20  10   0   0
HHW   70  96  73  96 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 010426
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1126 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The 06z TAF discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Storms currently moving thru NW AR will stay east of the TAF
sites, with the possible exception of KROG. This activity should
be done by 09z. It is unclear exactly how things will evolve with
the convection out to the west on the high Plains. Will use the
latest guidance from the hi-res HRRRX, which suggests that the
remnants (or possibly even an MCV) will move into NE OK Friday
morning. Potential for storms increases by midday into the
afternoon at all of the sites and have elected to cover with
PROB30 groups. Convection will taper off Friday night with the
best chances north of the Kansas/Missouri borders.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 912 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Much of the convection across northeast Oklahoma has
become outflow dominated and along with loss of daytime heating...has
diminished in areal coverage an intensity. Will keep higher pops
through 06z across northwest Arkansas with some stronger storms to
move into that area from sw Missouri. Otherwise...not much focus
for convection after 06z...but will leave slight chance pops in
for areas north of Interstate 40. Have lowered temps near the
Kansas border down a degree or so as slightly cooler air has
settled in those locations...however temp adjustments should
remain transparent in the zone text.

Updated ZFP/PFM/AFM already sent.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.

$$


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  89  73  96 /  20  40  20   0
FSM   74  94  74  96 /  10  20  20   0
MLC   71  93  73  95 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   69  85  70  93 /  20  50  30  20
FYV   69  86  70  90 /  40  40  20  20
BYV   69  85  69  88 /  40  50  20  30
MKO   73  91  72  95 /  20  20  10   0
MIO   69  85  68  91 /  20  50  40  30
F10   73  91  73  94 /  20  10   0   0
HHW   70  96  73  96 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KOUN 010351
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1051 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Aviation discussion for the 06 UTC TAFs is below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Overall, think VFR conditions will continue.

Isolated to numerous TSRA/SHRA will affect parts of northern
Oklahoma as well as perhaps western Oklahoma now through 16 UTC.
Plan to keep VCTS/TEMPO SHRA/TSRA near KWWR, KGAG, and KPNC.
Variable gusty winds and brief MVFR or lower conditions are
possible if SHRA/TSRA directly affects any of these sites.
Other sites may be affected as well, but do not plan on mentioning
due to lower confidence of occurrence.

Beyond 16 UTC, additional SHRA/TSRA may affect parts of Oklahoma
and north Texas, but do not plan on mentioning due to low
confidence of occurrence in regards to exact timing and location.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 927 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Updated the forecast earlier to make minor adjustments for
expected precipitation location this evening. With this mid-
evening update, have expanded the changes into tomorrow morning,
incorporating the best estimates from current trends and short-
range models. Also adjusted temperatures, mainly in northern
Oklahoma, to account for the effects of prolonged rainfall in that
area tomorrow morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 236 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
With a frontal boundary lingering around the OK/KS border and
northwest flow in place, convection will be a possibility each day
through the weekend across northern Oklahoma.

For this afternoon and tonight, a few isolated storms are possible
in northern Oklahoma near the boundary, but confidence in this
activity is low. The bigger story is another developing MCS coming
down off of the Rockies through Kansas into northern Oklahoma late
tonight. Hi res models have been trending later and later, keeping
the system out of the CWA till about 7Z now. Latest satellite and
radar shows storms just now beginning to form off the Rockies, which
is more in line with the latest Hi Res models. So, focused the
highest POPs after 06z, with only slight chances before then.
Direction of motion is also a little uncertain. Previous runs had
the MCS moving off to the east along the boundary after it entered
northern Oklahoma, but the most recent TTU WRF shows a slightly
more southerly direction more in line with previous nights and
model Corfidi vectors. Fairly high confidence that most of
northern Oklahoma will see storms overnight. Less confidence in
the possibility of central western Oklahoma seeing convection.

The boundary continues to linger around the OK/KS border Friday and
Saturday. Combined with daytime heating and a strengthening low
level jet, this boundary may serve as a focus for storms Friday
evening. Saturday evening, the front is set to progress slowly into
southwest through north central Oklahoma. A shortwave trough will
come down providing the upper level support needed to bring
thunderstorms to the area once again, this time extending across a
larger portion of Oklahoma.

As the shortwave departs and the ridge begins to move in, there
may be some lingering convection on Sunday. After that the ridge
continues to build through mid week, resulting in warmer
temperatures and a fairly dry forecast. Wednesday and Thursday may
see temperatures approaching the 100 degrees across much of the
area.

Farther out, models hint at another trough coming through the
following weekend, potentially bringing a brief relief from next
weeks heat.

Day

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

23/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 010351
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1051 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Aviation discussion for the 06 UTC TAFs is below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Overall, think VFR conditions will continue.

Isolated to numerous TSRA/SHRA will affect parts of northern
Oklahoma as well as perhaps western Oklahoma now through 16 UTC.
Plan to keep VCTS/TEMPO SHRA/TSRA near KWWR, KGAG, and KPNC.
Variable gusty winds and brief MVFR or lower conditions are
possible if SHRA/TSRA directly affects any of these sites.
Other sites may be affected as well, but do not plan on mentioning
due to lower confidence of occurrence.

Beyond 16 UTC, additional SHRA/TSRA may affect parts of Oklahoma
and north Texas, but do not plan on mentioning due to low
confidence of occurrence in regards to exact timing and location.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 927 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Updated the forecast earlier to make minor adjustments for
expected precipitation location this evening. With this mid-
evening update, have expanded the changes into tomorrow morning,
incorporating the best estimates from current trends and short-
range models. Also adjusted temperatures, mainly in northern
Oklahoma, to account for the effects of prolonged rainfall in that
area tomorrow morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 236 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
With a frontal boundary lingering around the OK/KS border and
northwest flow in place, convection will be a possibility each day
through the weekend across northern Oklahoma.

For this afternoon and tonight, a few isolated storms are possible
in northern Oklahoma near the boundary, but confidence in this
activity is low. The bigger story is another developing MCS coming
down off of the Rockies through Kansas into northern Oklahoma late
tonight. Hi res models have been trending later and later, keeping
the system out of the CWA till about 7Z now. Latest satellite and
radar shows storms just now beginning to form off the Rockies, which
is more in line with the latest Hi Res models. So, focused the
highest POPs after 06z, with only slight chances before then.
Direction of motion is also a little uncertain. Previous runs had
the MCS moving off to the east along the boundary after it entered
northern Oklahoma, but the most recent TTU WRF shows a slightly
more southerly direction more in line with previous nights and
model Corfidi vectors. Fairly high confidence that most of
northern Oklahoma will see storms overnight. Less confidence in
the possibility of central western Oklahoma seeing convection.

The boundary continues to linger around the OK/KS border Friday and
Saturday. Combined with daytime heating and a strengthening low
level jet, this boundary may serve as a focus for storms Friday
evening. Saturday evening, the front is set to progress slowly into
southwest through north central Oklahoma. A shortwave trough will
come down providing the upper level support needed to bring
thunderstorms to the area once again, this time extending across a
larger portion of Oklahoma.

As the shortwave departs and the ridge begins to move in, there
may be some lingering convection on Sunday. After that the ridge
continues to build through mid week, resulting in warmer
temperatures and a fairly dry forecast. Wednesday and Thursday may
see temperatures approaching the 100 degrees across much of the
area.

Farther out, models hint at another trough coming through the
following weekend, potentially bringing a brief relief from next
weeks heat.

Day

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

23/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 010227
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
927 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Updated the forecast earlier to make minor adjustments for
expected precipitation location this evening. With this mid-
evening update, have expanded the changes into tomorrow morning,
incorporating the best estimates from current trends and short-
range models. Also adjusted temperatures, mainly in northern
Oklahoma, to account for the effects of prolonged rainfall in that
area tomorrow morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 623 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Aviation discussion for the 00 UTC TAFs is below.

AVIATION...
Overall, think VFR conditions will continue.

Isolated TSRA will be near KOKC and KPNC through about 01 UTC.
KSPS may be affected as well, but confidence is too low to add a
VCTS for this site.

Additional TSRA may affect parts of northern Oklahoma after 06
UTC. Kept VCTS/TEMPO TSRA near KWWR, KGAG, and KPNC for a 3 hour
period 07-13 UTC. Variable gusty winds and brief MVFR or lower
conditions are possible if TSRA directly affects any of these
sites.

Beyond 13 UTC, additional TSRA may affect parts of Oklahoma and
north Texas, but did not due to low confidence of occurrence.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 236 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
With a frontal boundary lingering around the OK/KS border and
northwest flow in place, convection will be a possibility each day
through the weekend across northern Oklahoma.

For this afternoon and tonight, a few isolated storms are possible
in northern Oklahoma near the boundary, but confidence in this
activity is low. The bigger story is another developing MCS coming
down off of the Rockies through Kansas into northern Oklahoma late
tonight. Hi res models have been trending later and later, keeping
the system out of the CWA till about 7Z now. Latest satellite and
radar shows storms just now beginning to form off the Rockies, which
is more in line with the latest Hi Res models. So, focused the
highest POPs after 06z, with only slight chances before then.
Direction of motion is also a little uncertain. Previous runs had
the MCS moving off to the east along the boundary after it entered
northern Oklahoma, but the most recent TTU WRF shows a slightly
more southerly direction more in line with previous nights and
model Corfidi vectors. Fairly high confidence that most of
northern Oklahoma will see storms overnight. Less confidence in
the possibility of central western Oklahoma seeing convection.

The boundary continues to linger around the OK/KS border Friday and
Saturday. Combined with daytime heating and a strengthening low
level jet, this boundary may serve as a focus for storms Friday
evening. Saturday evening, the front is set to progress slowly into
southwest through north central Oklahoma. A shortwave trough will
come down providing the upper level support needed to bring
thunderstorms to the area once again, this time extending across a
larger portion of Oklahoma.

As the shortwave departs and the ridge begins to move in, there
may be some lingering convection on Sunday. After that the ridge
continues to build through mid week, resulting in warmer
temperatures and a fairly dry forecast. Wednesday and Thursday may
see temperatures approaching the 100 degrees across much of the
area.

Farther out, models hint at another trough coming through the
following weekend, potentially bringing a brief relief from next
weeks heat.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  92  69  91  74 /  20  30  30  10
Hobart OK         94  70  96  75 /  20  20  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  96  72  98  75 /  10  10  10  10
Gage OK           92  68  93  73 /  40  50  40  20
Ponca City OK     93  71  84  71 /  30  30  50  30
Durant OK         94  71  96  74 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

23/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 010227
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
927 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Updated the forecast earlier to make minor adjustments for
expected precipitation location this evening. With this mid-
evening update, have expanded the changes into tomorrow morning,
incorporating the best estimates from current trends and short-
range models. Also adjusted temperatures, mainly in northern
Oklahoma, to account for the effects of prolonged rainfall in that
area tomorrow morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 623 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Aviation discussion for the 00 UTC TAFs is below.

AVIATION...
Overall, think VFR conditions will continue.

Isolated TSRA will be near KOKC and KPNC through about 01 UTC.
KSPS may be affected as well, but confidence is too low to add a
VCTS for this site.

Additional TSRA may affect parts of northern Oklahoma after 06
UTC. Kept VCTS/TEMPO TSRA near KWWR, KGAG, and KPNC for a 3 hour
period 07-13 UTC. Variable gusty winds and brief MVFR or lower
conditions are possible if TSRA directly affects any of these
sites.

Beyond 13 UTC, additional TSRA may affect parts of Oklahoma and
north Texas, but did not due to low confidence of occurrence.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 236 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
With a frontal boundary lingering around the OK/KS border and
northwest flow in place, convection will be a possibility each day
through the weekend across northern Oklahoma.

For this afternoon and tonight, a few isolated storms are possible
in northern Oklahoma near the boundary, but confidence in this
activity is low. The bigger story is another developing MCS coming
down off of the Rockies through Kansas into northern Oklahoma late
tonight. Hi res models have been trending later and later, keeping
the system out of the CWA till about 7Z now. Latest satellite and
radar shows storms just now beginning to form off the Rockies, which
is more in line with the latest Hi Res models. So, focused the
highest POPs after 06z, with only slight chances before then.
Direction of motion is also a little uncertain. Previous runs had
the MCS moving off to the east along the boundary after it entered
northern Oklahoma, but the most recent TTU WRF shows a slightly
more southerly direction more in line with previous nights and
model Corfidi vectors. Fairly high confidence that most of
northern Oklahoma will see storms overnight. Less confidence in
the possibility of central western Oklahoma seeing convection.

The boundary continues to linger around the OK/KS border Friday and
Saturday. Combined with daytime heating and a strengthening low
level jet, this boundary may serve as a focus for storms Friday
evening. Saturday evening, the front is set to progress slowly into
southwest through north central Oklahoma. A shortwave trough will
come down providing the upper level support needed to bring
thunderstorms to the area once again, this time extending across a
larger portion of Oklahoma.

As the shortwave departs and the ridge begins to move in, there
may be some lingering convection on Sunday. After that the ridge
continues to build through mid week, resulting in warmer
temperatures and a fairly dry forecast. Wednesday and Thursday may
see temperatures approaching the 100 degrees across much of the
area.

Farther out, models hint at another trough coming through the
following weekend, potentially bringing a brief relief from next
weeks heat.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  92  69  91  74 /  20  30  30  10
Hobart OK         94  70  96  75 /  20  20  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  96  72  98  75 /  10  10  10  10
Gage OK           92  68  93  73 /  40  50  40  20
Ponca City OK     93  71  84  71 /  30  30  50  30
Durant OK         94  71  96  74 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

23/17




000
FXUS64 KTSA 010212
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
912 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Much of the convection across northeast Oklahoma has
become outflow dominated and along with loss of daytime heating...has
diminished in areal coverage an intensity. Will keep higher pops
through 06z across northwest Arkansas with some stronger storms to
move into that area from sw Missouri. Otherwise...not much focus
for convection after 06z...but will leave slight chance pops in
for areas north of Interstate 40. Have lowered temps near the
Kansas border down a degree or so as slightly cooler air has
settled in those locations...however temp adjustments should
remain transparent in the zone text.

Updated ZFP/PFM/AFM already sent.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 302323
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
623 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Aviation discussion for the 00 UTC TAFs is below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Overall, think VFR conditions will continue.

Isolated TSRA will be near KOKC and KPNC through about 01 UTC.
KSPS may be affected as well, but confidence is too low to add a
VCTS for this site.

Additional TSRA may affect parts of northern Oklahoma after 06
UTC. Kept VCTS/TEMPO TSRA near KWWR, KGAG, and KPNC for a 3 hour
period 07-13 UTC. Variable gusty winds and brief MVFR or lower
conditions are possible if TSRA directly affects any of these
sites.

Beyond 13 UTC, additional TSRA may affect parts of Oklahoma and
north Texas, but did not due to low confidence of occurrence.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 236 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
With a frontal boundary lingering around the OK/KS border and
northwest flow in place, convection will be a possibility each day
through the weekend across northern Oklahoma.

For this afternoon and tonight, a few isolated storms are possible
in northern Oklahoma near the boundary, but confidence in this
activity is low. The bigger story is another developing MCS coming
down off of the Rockies through Kansas into northern Oklahoma late
tonight. Hi res models have been trending later and later, keeping
the system out of the CWA till about 7Z now. Latest satellite and
radar shows storms just now beginning to form off the Rockies, which
is more in line with the latest Hi Res models. So, focused the
highest POPs after 06z, with only slight chances before then.
Direction of motion is also a little uncertain. Previous runs had
the MCS moving off to the east along the boundary after it entered
northern Oklahoma, but the most recent TTU WRF shows a slightly
more southerly direction more in line with previous nights and
model Corfidi vectors. Fairly high confidence that most of
northern Oklahoma will see storms overnight. Less confidence in
the possibility of central western Oklahoma seeing convection.

The boundary continues to linger around the OK/KS border Friday and
Saturday. Combined with daytime heating and a strengthening low
level jet, this boundary may serve as a focus for storms Friday
evening. Saturday evening, the front is set to progress slowly into
southwest through north central Oklahoma. A shortwave trough will
come down providing the upper level support needed to bring
thunderstorms to the area once again, this time extending across a
larger portion of Oklahoma.

As the shortwave departs and the ridge begins to move in, there
may be some lingering convection on Sunday. After that the ridge
continues to build through mid week, resulting in warmer
temperatures and a fairly dry forecast. Wednesday and Thursday may
see temperatures approaching the 100 degrees across much of the
area.

Farther out, models hint at another trough coming through the
following weekend, potentially bringing a brief relief from next
weeks heat.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  71  91  74  94 /  30  20  10  10
Hobart OK         73  96  75  97 /  20  20  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  73  98  75  97 /  10  10  10   0
Gage OK           69  92  73  94 /  60  20  20  40
Ponca City OK     70  85  71  93 /  40  50  30  20
Durant OK         73  95  74  94 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

23/17/17




000
FXUS64 KTSA 302311
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
611 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Scattered TSRA to impacts mainly KBVO this evening...with less
coverage across NW AR that warrants a VCTS for a few hours early
in the TAF period for those sites. MVFR vsbys will prevail where
thunder occurs...with VFR cigs. Periodic chances for storms
during the remainder of the TAF period will be handled with prob
groups across the NE OK and NW AR sites as development will be
focused in the vicinity of a cold front that will linger across
the area through tomorrow.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 257 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A cold front currently across central Kansas will try to move into
northeast Oklahoma Tonight into Friday increasing the chances
of showers and thunderstorms across areas north of Interstate 40
into Friday. Subtle shortwaves embedded in the decaying northwesterly
flow aloft will also aid in the development of these scattered showers
and thunderstorms. The chances of showers and thunderstorms will
continue on Saturday as the frontal boundary lifts back north to near
the Kansas/Oklahoma border. These chances will mainly be north of
highway 412.

Better chances of showers and thunderstorms arrive Saturday night and
continue into Independence Day as a more significant mid-level shortwave
moves out of the southwest United States and across the plains. Showers
and thunderstorms will linger into Tuesday as an associated frontal
boundary lingers in the vicinity.

Dry weather is expected Wednesday into Thursday as high pressure aloft
builds in the area. Temperatures will warm as well with high temperatures
around 100 degrees possible Wednesday and especially on Thursday.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 301957
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
257 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front currently across central Kansas will try to move into
northeast Oklahoma Tonight into Friday increasing the chances
of showers and thunderstorms across areas north of Interstate 40
into Friday. Subtle shortwaves embedded in the decaying northwesterly
flow aloft will also aid in the development of these scattered showers
and thunderstorms. The chances of showers and thunderstorms will
continue on Saturday as the frontal boundary lifts back north to near
the Kansas/Oklahoma border. These chances will mainly be north of
highway 412.

Better chances of showers and thunderstorms arrive Saturday night and
continue into Independence Day as a more significant mid-level shortwave
moves out of the southwest United States and across the plains. Showers
and thunderstorms will linger into Tuesday as an associated frontal
boundary lingers in the vicinity.

Dry weather is expected Wednesday into Thursday as high pressure aloft
builds in the area. Temperatures will warm as well with high temperatures
around 100 degrees possible Wednesday and especially on Thursday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  89  73  96 /  50  40  20   0
FSM   74  94  74  96 /  20  20  20   0
MLC   71  93  73  95 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   70  85  70  93 /  50  50  30  20
FYV   69  86  70  90 /  30  40  20  20
BYV   69  85  69  88 /  50  50  20  30
MKO   73  91  72  95 /  30  20  10   0
MIO   70  85  68  91 /  50  50  40  30
F10   73  91  73  94 /  30  10   0   0
HHW   70  96  73  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....10




000
FXUS64 KOUN 301936
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
236 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
With a frontal boundary lingering around the OK/KS border and
northwest flow in place, convection will be a possibility each day
through the weekend across northern Oklahoma.

For this afternoon and tonight, a few isolated storms are possible
in northern Oklahoma near the boundary, but confidence in this
activity is low. The bigger story is another developing MCS coming
down off of the Rockies through Kansas into northern Oklahoma late
tonight. Hi res models have been trending later and later, keeping
the system out of the CWA till about 7Z now. Latest satellite and
radar shows storms just now beginning to form off the Rockies, which
is more in line with the latest Hi Res models. So, focused the
highest POPs after 06z, with only slight chances before then.
Direction of motion is also a little uncertain. Previous runs had
the MCS moving off to the east along the boundary after it entered
northern Oklahoma, but the most recent TTU WRF shows a slightly
more southerly direction more in line with previous nights and
model Corfidi vectors. Fairly high confidence that most of
northern Oklahoma will see storms overnight. Less confidence in
the possibility of central western Oklahoma seeing convection.

The boundary continues to linger around the OK/KS border Friday and
Saturday. Combined with daytime heating and a strengthening low
level jet, this boundary may serve as a focus for storms Friday
evening. Saturday evening, the front is set to progress slowly into
southwest through north central Oklahoma. A shortwave trough will
come down providing the upper level support needed to bring
thunderstorms to the area once again, this time extending across a
larger portion of Oklahoma.

As the shortwave departs and the ridge begins to move in, there
may be some lingering convection on Sunday. After that the ridge
continues to build through mid week, resulting in warmer
temperatures and a fairly dry forecast. Wednesday and Thursday may
see temperatures approaching the 100 degrees across much of the
area.

Farther out, models hint at another trough coming through the
following weekend, potentially bringing a brief relief from next
weeks heat.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  71  91  74  94 /  30  20  10  10
Hobart OK         73  96  75  97 /  20  20  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  73  98  75  97 /  10  10  10   0
Gage OK           69  92  73  94 /  60  20  20  40
Ponca City OK     70  85  71  93 /  40  50  30  20
Durant OK         73  95  74  94 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

26/14




000
FXUS64 KTSA 301739
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1239 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Scattered showers/thunderstorms are expected to redevelop across
portions of NE OK/NW AR by late afternoon/early evening. IFR
conditions will briefly be possible with any of the stronger
storms...especially in the BVO area. Widely scattered precipitation
will likely persist tonight into Friday across these same areas
as a frontal boundary approaches from the north. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected through the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1131 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Current forecast generally on track. Did increase wind speeds
across NE OK for this afternoon with gusts to 20 mph likely.
A few lingering showers/thunderstorms continue across far NE
OK/NW AR late this morning in association with weak upper wave.
Additional thunderstorms will be possible by early evening into
the overnight hours across far NE OK as frontal boundary
approaches from the north. A few of the stronger storms could
produce damaging winds/locally heavy rainfall.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.

$$

SHORT TERM...12

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12




000
FXUS64 KOUN 301721 AAA
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1221 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.AVIATION...
Main impact will be a thunderstorm complex that is expected to
come south out of Kansas overnight, impacting KGAG and KWWR around
07Z or later and KPNC around 10z. Timing is still a little
uncertain, so went with TEMPO groups for now. Winds at KGAG and
KWWR near the front may be a bit variable, but outside of
thunderstorms they should remain fairly light. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 606 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF discussion below.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Showers/storms
will be possible through Friday morning but too uncertain at times
and where storms will develop for mention in TAFs. However, there
does appear to be a good chance across portions of northern OK
overnight near a frontal boundary.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 317 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Storms in the panhandles and southwest KS are expected to move
into western parts of the fa early this morning. Another area of
storms that moved out of Nebraska and is currently moving across
Kansas could make it into parts of the fa later this morning.

Models have changed a bit with much of the rain expected to now
stay north of the fa tonight into Friday. Models do not have the
front coming as far south as previous runs so the best chances for
rain shift north. Despite that, showers and storms will still
remain possible in parts of the area through Friday just have
confined PoPs a little further north. Models now show the better
chance for rain in the area will be this weekend. A shortwave
trough will move out of the Southwest U.S. into the
Central/Southern Plains. Models also show a frontal boundary in
the fa which along with the shortwave will bring a good chance for
showers/storms to parts of the fa this weekend. Rain chances will
continue into early next week.

Overall, heavy rain leading to localized flooding will be the
main concern through early next week. However, some strong to
severe storms will continue to be possible at times with strong
wind gusts the main concern.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  92  70  91  73 /  20  30  20  10
Hobart OK         94  72  96  74 /  20  20  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  96  72  98  75 /  10  10  10  10
Gage OK           92  69  93  72 /  40  40  20  20
Ponca City OK     93  69  86  71 /  30  60  50  30
Durant OK         94  72  95  73 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

26/14/14




000
FXUS64 KTSA 301631
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1131 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Current forecast generally on track. Did increase wind speeds
across NE OK for this afternoon with gusts to 20 mph likely.
A few lingering showers/thunderstorms continue across far NE
OK/NW AR late this morning in association with weak upper wave.
Additional thunderstorms will be possible by early evening into
the overnight hours across far NE OK as frontal boundary
approaches from the north. A few of the stronger storms could
produce damaging winds/locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....10




000
FXUS64 KTSA 301631
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1131 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Current forecast generally on track. Did increase wind speeds
across NE OK for this afternoon with gusts to 20 mph likely.
A few lingering showers/thunderstorms continue across far NE
OK/NW AR late this morning in association with weak upper wave.
Additional thunderstorms will be possible by early evening into
the overnight hours across far NE OK as frontal boundary
approaches from the north. A few of the stronger storms could
produce damaging winds/locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....10




000
FXUS64 KOUN 301106
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
606 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Showers/storms
will be possible through Friday morning but too uncertain at times
and where storms will develop for mention in TAFs. However, there
does appear to be a good chance across portions of northern OK
overnight near a frontal boundary.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 317 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Storms in the panhandles and southwest KS are expected to move
into western parts of the fa early this morning. Another area of
storms that moved out of Nebraska and is currently moving across
Kansas could make it into parts of the fa later this morning.

Models have changed a bit with much of the rain expected to now
stay north of the fa tonight into Friday. Models do not have the
front coming as far south as previous runs so the best chances for
rain shift north. Despite that, showers and storms will still
remain possible in parts of the area through Friday just have
confined PoPs a little further north. Models now show the better
chance for rain in the area will be this weekend. A shortwave
trough will move out of the Southwest U.S. into the
Central/Southern Plains. Models also show a frontal boundary in
the fa which along with the shortwave will bring a good chance for
showers/storms to parts of the fa this weekend. Rain chances will
continue into early next week.

Overall, heavy rain leading to localized flooding will be the
main concern through early next week. However, some strong to
severe storms will continue to be possible at times with strong
wind gusts the main concern.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  92  70  91  73 /  20  30  20  10
Hobart OK         94  72  96  74 /  20  20  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  96  72  98  75 /  10  10  10  10
Gage OK           92  69  93  72 /  40  40  20  20
Ponca City OK     93  69  86  71 /  30  60  50  30
Durant OK         94  72  95  73 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

03/25/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 301106
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
606 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Showers/storms
will be possible through Friday morning but too uncertain at times
and where storms will develop for mention in TAFs. However, there
does appear to be a good chance across portions of northern OK
overnight near a frontal boundary.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 317 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Storms in the panhandles and southwest KS are expected to move
into western parts of the fa early this morning. Another area of
storms that moved out of Nebraska and is currently moving across
Kansas could make it into parts of the fa later this morning.

Models have changed a bit with much of the rain expected to now
stay north of the fa tonight into Friday. Models do not have the
front coming as far south as previous runs so the best chances for
rain shift north. Despite that, showers and storms will still
remain possible in parts of the area through Friday just have
confined PoPs a little further north. Models now show the better
chance for rain in the area will be this weekend. A shortwave
trough will move out of the Southwest U.S. into the
Central/Southern Plains. Models also show a frontal boundary in
the fa which along with the shortwave will bring a good chance for
showers/storms to parts of the fa this weekend. Rain chances will
continue into early next week.

Overall, heavy rain leading to localized flooding will be the
main concern through early next week. However, some strong to
severe storms will continue to be possible at times with strong
wind gusts the main concern.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  92  70  91  73 /  20  30  20  10
Hobart OK         94  72  96  74 /  20  20  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  96  72  98  75 /  10  10  10  10
Gage OK           92  69  93  72 /  40  40  20  20
Ponca City OK     93  69  86  71 /  30  60  50  30
Durant OK         94  72  95  73 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

03/25/25




000
FXUS64 KTSA 301101
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
601 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Isolated showers or thunderstorms will remain possible through
this morning with coverage not warranting inclusion in forecast.
Greater convective coverage likely across northeast OK and
possibly northwest AR after 00z. Overall VFR will prevail with
localized MVFR conditions near storms this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 317 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Western extent of shortwave trough passing through the Great Lakes
region has helped maintain convection to our northwest
overnight...and this subtle forcing will spread southeastward
today. The associated sfc boundary will also gradually slide
southward with convection likely to to develop across southern KS
later today and spread into NE OK / far NW AR late this afternoon
into the evening. Overall coverage and intensity of the precip
continues to be reduced with subsequent model runs and thus precip
chances have decreased. Additional convective development along
the sagging boundary is possible through Friday with an increase
in cloud cover providing a brief and minor cool down.

A more defined wave approaches the Plains on Saturday with the
warm sector spreading northward and taking the more widespread
rains well north of the area. This will allow temps on Saturday to
warm well above normal and a run at triple digit heat is not out
of the question for some locations. The weak cold front associated
with the aforementioned wave increases precip chances Sun night
through Monday as it stalls across the region and gradually loses
definition. Thereafter upper ridging dominates at least through
the remainder of the work week with hot and dry wx prevailing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   96  73  92  73 /  10  30  30  10
FSM   96  73  94  73 /  10  10  20  10
MLC   94  69  94  72 /  10  10  10   0
BVO   94  69  88  69 /  20  50  50  20
FYV   89  67  87  68 /  20  20  30  10
BYV   88  67  86  68 /  40  30  50  20
MKO   94  71  93  71 /  10  20  20  10
MIO   93  69  85  70 /  30  50  50  30
F10   93  72  92  72 /  10  20  20  10
HHW   95  70  96  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...14




000
FXUS64 KTSA 301101
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
601 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Isolated showers or thunderstorms will remain possible through
this morning with coverage not warranting inclusion in forecast.
Greater convective coverage likely across northeast OK and
possibly northwest AR after 00z. Overall VFR will prevail with
localized MVFR conditions near storms this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 317 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Western extent of shortwave trough passing through the Great Lakes
region has helped maintain convection to our northwest
overnight...and this subtle forcing will spread southeastward
today. The associated sfc boundary will also gradually slide
southward with convection likely to to develop across southern KS
later today and spread into NE OK / far NW AR late this afternoon
into the evening. Overall coverage and intensity of the precip
continues to be reduced with subsequent model runs and thus precip
chances have decreased. Additional convective development along
the sagging boundary is possible through Friday with an increase
in cloud cover providing a brief and minor cool down.

A more defined wave approaches the Plains on Saturday with the
warm sector spreading northward and taking the more widespread
rains well north of the area. This will allow temps on Saturday to
warm well above normal and a run at triple digit heat is not out
of the question for some locations. The weak cold front associated
with the aforementioned wave increases precip chances Sun night
through Monday as it stalls across the region and gradually loses
definition. Thereafter upper ridging dominates at least through
the remainder of the work week with hot and dry wx prevailing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   96  73  92  73 /  10  30  30  10
FSM   96  73  94  73 /  10  10  20  10
MLC   94  69  94  72 /  10  10  10   0
BVO   94  69  88  69 /  20  50  50  20
FYV   89  67  87  68 /  20  20  30  10
BYV   88  67  86  68 /  40  30  50  20
MKO   94  71  93  71 /  10  20  20  10
MIO   93  69  85  70 /  30  50  50  30
F10   93  72  92  72 /  10  20  20  10
HHW   95  70  96  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...14




000
FXUS64 KTSA 301101
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
601 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Isolated showers or thunderstorms will remain possible through
this morning with coverage not warranting inclusion in forecast.
Greater convective coverage likely across northeast OK and
possibly northwest AR after 00z. Overall VFR will prevail with
localized MVFR conditions near storms this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 317 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Western extent of shortwave trough passing through the Great Lakes
region has helped maintain convection to our northwest
overnight...and this subtle forcing will spread southeastward
today. The associated sfc boundary will also gradually slide
southward with convection likely to to develop across southern KS
later today and spread into NE OK / far NW AR late this afternoon
into the evening. Overall coverage and intensity of the precip
continues to be reduced with subsequent model runs and thus precip
chances have decreased. Additional convective development along
the sagging boundary is possible through Friday with an increase
in cloud cover providing a brief and minor cool down.

A more defined wave approaches the Plains on Saturday with the
warm sector spreading northward and taking the more widespread
rains well north of the area. This will allow temps on Saturday to
warm well above normal and a run at triple digit heat is not out
of the question for some locations. The weak cold front associated
with the aforementioned wave increases precip chances Sun night
through Monday as it stalls across the region and gradually loses
definition. Thereafter upper ridging dominates at least through
the remainder of the work week with hot and dry wx prevailing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   96  73  92  73 /  10  30  30  10
FSM   96  73  94  73 /  10  10  20  10
MLC   94  69  94  72 /  10  10  10   0
BVO   94  69  88  69 /  20  50  50  20
FYV   89  67  87  68 /  20  20  30  10
BYV   88  67  86  68 /  40  30  50  20
MKO   94  71  93  71 /  10  20  20  10
MIO   93  69  85  70 /  30  50  50  30
F10   93  72  92  72 /  10  20  20  10
HHW   95  70  96  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...14




000
FXUS64 KTSA 301101
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
601 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Isolated showers or thunderstorms will remain possible through
this morning with coverage not warranting inclusion in forecast.
Greater convective coverage likely across northeast OK and
possibly northwest AR after 00z. Overall VFR will prevail with
localized MVFR conditions near storms this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 317 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Western extent of shortwave trough passing through the Great Lakes
region has helped maintain convection to our northwest
overnight...and this subtle forcing will spread southeastward
today. The associated sfc boundary will also gradually slide
southward with convection likely to to develop across southern KS
later today and spread into NE OK / far NW AR late this afternoon
into the evening. Overall coverage and intensity of the precip
continues to be reduced with subsequent model runs and thus precip
chances have decreased. Additional convective development along
the sagging boundary is possible through Friday with an increase
in cloud cover providing a brief and minor cool down.

A more defined wave approaches the Plains on Saturday with the
warm sector spreading northward and taking the more widespread
rains well north of the area. This will allow temps on Saturday to
warm well above normal and a run at triple digit heat is not out
of the question for some locations. The weak cold front associated
with the aforementioned wave increases precip chances Sun night
through Monday as it stalls across the region and gradually loses
definition. Thereafter upper ridging dominates at least through
the remainder of the work week with hot and dry wx prevailing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   96  73  92  73 /  10  30  30  10
FSM   96  73  94  73 /  10  10  20  10
MLC   94  69  94  72 /  10  10  10   0
BVO   94  69  88  69 /  20  50  50  20
FYV   89  67  87  68 /  20  20  30  10
BYV   88  67  86  68 /  40  30  50  20
MKO   94  71  93  71 /  10  20  20  10
MIO   93  69  85  70 /  30  50  50  30
F10   93  72  92  72 /  10  20  20  10
HHW   95  70  96  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...14




000
FXUS64 KOUN 300817
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
317 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Storms in the panhandles and southwest KS are expected to move
into western parts of the fa early this morning. Another area of
storms that moved out of Nebraska and is currently moving across
Kansas could make it into parts of the fa later this morning.

Models have changed a bit with much of the rain expected to now
stay north of the fa tonight into Friday. Models do not have the
front coming as far south as previous runs so the best chances for
rain shift north. Despite that, showers and storms will still
remain possible in parts of the area through Friday just have
confined PoPs a little further north. Models now show the better
chance for rain in the area will be this weekend. A shortwave
trough will move out of the Southwest U.S. into the
Central/Southern Plains. Models also show a frontal boundary in
the fa which along with the shortwave will bring a good chance for
showers/storms to parts of the fa this weekend. Rain chances will
continue into early next week.

Overall, heavy rain leading to localized flooding will be the
main concern through early next week. However, some strong to
severe storms will continue to be possible at times with strong
wind gusts the main concern.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  92  70  91  73 /  20  30  20  10
Hobart OK         94  72  96  74 /  20  20  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  96  72  98  75 /  10  10  10  10
Gage OK           92  69  93  72 /  40  40  20  20
Ponca City OK     93  69  86  71 /  30  60  50  30
Durant OK         94  72  95  73 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

03/25




000
FXUS64 KTSA 300817
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
317 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Western extent of shortwave trough passing through the Great Lakes
region has helped maintain convection to our northwest
overnight...and this subtle forcing will spread southeastward
today. The associated sfc boundary will also gradually slide
southward with convection likely to to develop across southern KS
later today and spread into NE OK / far NW AR late this afternoon
into the evening. Overall coverage and intensity of the precip
continues to be reduced with subsequent model runs and thus precip
chances have decreased. Additional convective development along
the sagging boundary is possible through Friday with an increase
in cloud cover providing a brief and minor cool down.

A more defined wave approaches the Plains on Saturday with the
warm sector spreading northward and taking the more widespread
rains well north of the area. This will allow temps on Saturday to
warm well above normal and a run at triple digit heat is not out
of the question for some locations. The weak cold front associated
with the aforementioned wave increases precip chances Sun night
through Monday as it stalls across the region and gradually loses
definition. Thereafter upper ridging dominates at least through
the remainder of the work week with hot and dry wx prevailing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   96  73  92  73 /  10  30  30  10
FSM   96  73  94  73 /  10  10  20  10
MLC   94  69  94  72 /  10  10  10   0
BVO   94  69  88  69 /  20  50  50  20
FYV   89  67  87  68 /  20  20  30  10
BYV   88  67  86  68 /  40  30  50  20
MKO   94  71  93  71 /  10  20  20  10
MIO   93  69  85  70 /  30  50  50  30
F10   93  72  92  72 /  10  20  20  10
HHW   95  70  96  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07




000
FXUS64 KTSA 300817
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
317 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Western extent of shortwave trough passing through the Great Lakes
region has helped maintain convection to our northwest
overnight...and this subtle forcing will spread southeastward
today. The associated sfc boundary will also gradually slide
southward with convection likely to to develop across southern KS
later today and spread into NE OK / far NW AR late this afternoon
into the evening. Overall coverage and intensity of the precip
continues to be reduced with subsequent model runs and thus precip
chances have decreased. Additional convective development along
the sagging boundary is possible through Friday with an increase
in cloud cover providing a brief and minor cool down.

A more defined wave approaches the Plains on Saturday with the
warm sector spreading northward and taking the more widespread
rains well north of the area. This will allow temps on Saturday to
warm well above normal and a run at triple digit heat is not out
of the question for some locations. The weak cold front associated
with the aforementioned wave increases precip chances Sun night
through Monday as it stalls across the region and gradually loses
definition. Thereafter upper ridging dominates at least through
the remainder of the work week with hot and dry wx prevailing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   96  73  92  73 /  10  30  30  10
FSM   96  73  94  73 /  10  10  20  10
MLC   94  69  94  72 /  10  10  10   0
BVO   94  69  88  69 /  20  50  50  20
FYV   89  67  87  68 /  20  20  30  10
BYV   88  67  86  68 /  40  30  50  20
MKO   94  71  93  71 /  10  20  20  10
MIO   93  69  85  70 /  30  50  50  30
F10   93  72  92  72 /  10  20  20  10
HHW   95  70  96  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07




000
FXUS64 KOUN 300817
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
317 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Storms in the panhandles and southwest KS are expected to move
into western parts of the fa early this morning. Another area of
storms that moved out of Nebraska and is currently moving across
Kansas could make it into parts of the fa later this morning.

Models have changed a bit with much of the rain expected to now
stay north of the fa tonight into Friday. Models do not have the
front coming as far south as previous runs so the best chances for
rain shift north. Despite that, showers and storms will still
remain possible in parts of the area through Friday just have
confined PoPs a little further north. Models now show the better
chance for rain in the area will be this weekend. A shortwave
trough will move out of the Southwest U.S. into the
Central/Southern Plains. Models also show a frontal boundary in
the fa which along with the shortwave will bring a good chance for
showers/storms to parts of the fa this weekend. Rain chances will
continue into early next week.

Overall, heavy rain leading to localized flooding will be the
main concern through early next week. However, some strong to
severe storms will continue to be possible at times with strong
wind gusts the main concern.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  92  70  91  73 /  20  30  20  10
Hobart OK         94  72  96  74 /  20  20  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  96  72  98  75 /  10  10  10  10
Gage OK           92  69  93  72 /  40  40  20  20
Ponca City OK     93  69  86  71 /  30  60  50  30
Durant OK         94  72  95  73 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

03/25




000
FXUS64 KTSA 300437
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1137 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Isolated thunderstorm development possible across SE KS tonight
...with some of that activity sliding into far NE OK and
potentially impacting KBVO. Will carry VCTS for a few hours given
low confidence. Otherwise...VFR conditions are expected...and
thunderstorm coverage will remain too low for TAF inclusion at the
remaining sites for this period at most sites. The exception will
be KBVO late in the TAF period...where scattered thunderstorms
that develop along a cold front approach from the north after 00z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 803 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Isolated convection should begin to die off soon as sunset
approaches. Current observational data and short term hi-res model
data doesn`t show an MCS signal for the overnight hours tonight.
Have updated pops to go dry from mid evening on. I did leave the
slight chance pops after midnight with the HRRRX developing some
high based showers or storms across NE OK toward 12z. Updated
products sent.

Lacy

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 609 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Isolated thunderstorms across the area will diminish early in the
TAF period. Additional development across Kansas later tonight may
impact KBVO...so will keep a prob30 at that site. Otherwise...VFR
conditions are expected...and thunderstorm coverage will remain
too low for TAF inclusion at the remaining sites for this period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 306 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms have been persistent across Carroll
county in far northwest Arkansas along a weak frontal boundary
that extends from southwest Missouri into northwest Arkansas.
This activity will more than likely continue into the evening hours
before dissipating this evening with the loss of daytime heating.
Thunderstorms currently developing over northeastern Kansas may
make a run at northwest Arkansas later tonight as well.

Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase Thursday evening into
Friday as a more significant mid-level shortwave embedded in the eroding
northwesterly flow aloft affects the region. The best chances of showers
and thunderstorms will be north of Interstate 40 with the heaviest rainfall
totals expected north of Interstate 44. This area of heaviest rain will be
north of a nearly stationary surface boundary across southeast Oklahoma
and a cold front advancing into southeast Kansas. 1 to 3 inches of rain
rain will be possible in this zone with locally higher amounts. Marginally
severe weather will also be possible with strong gusty winds.

After something of a lull on Saturday, chances of showers and thunderstorms
will increase on Saturday night into Monday as a mid-level shortwave moves
out of the southwest United States and across the plains. Dry weather
returns the middle of next week as a weak mid level ridge builds over
the region.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.

$$

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 300437
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1137 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Isolated thunderstorm development possible across SE KS tonight
...with some of that activity sliding into far NE OK and
potentially impacting KBVO. Will carry VCTS for a few hours given
low confidence. Otherwise...VFR conditions are expected...and
thunderstorm coverage will remain too low for TAF inclusion at the
remaining sites for this period at most sites. The exception will
be KBVO late in the TAF period...where scattered thunderstorms
that develop along a cold front approach from the north after 00z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 803 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Isolated convection should begin to die off soon as sunset
approaches. Current observational data and short term hi-res model
data doesn`t show an MCS signal for the overnight hours tonight.
Have updated pops to go dry from mid evening on. I did leave the
slight chance pops after midnight with the HRRRX developing some
high based showers or storms across NE OK toward 12z. Updated
products sent.

Lacy

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 609 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Isolated thunderstorms across the area will diminish early in the
TAF period. Additional development across Kansas later tonight may
impact KBVO...so will keep a prob30 at that site. Otherwise...VFR
conditions are expected...and thunderstorm coverage will remain
too low for TAF inclusion at the remaining sites for this period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 306 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms have been persistent across Carroll
county in far northwest Arkansas along a weak frontal boundary
that extends from southwest Missouri into northwest Arkansas.
This activity will more than likely continue into the evening hours
before dissipating this evening with the loss of daytime heating.
Thunderstorms currently developing over northeastern Kansas may
make a run at northwest Arkansas later tonight as well.

Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase Thursday evening into
Friday as a more significant mid-level shortwave embedded in the eroding
northwesterly flow aloft affects the region. The best chances of showers
and thunderstorms will be north of Interstate 40 with the heaviest rainfall
totals expected north of Interstate 44. This area of heaviest rain will be
north of a nearly stationary surface boundary across southeast Oklahoma
and a cold front advancing into southeast Kansas. 1 to 3 inches of rain
rain will be possible in this zone with locally higher amounts. Marginally
severe weather will also be possible with strong gusty winds.

After something of a lull on Saturday, chances of showers and thunderstorms
will increase on Saturday night into Monday as a mid-level shortwave moves
out of the southwest United States and across the plains. Dry weather
returns the middle of next week as a weak mid level ridge builds over
the region.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.

$$

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 300350
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1050 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Aviation discussion for the 06 UTC TAFs is below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to continue.

Chances for TSRA affecting any given TAF site in the next 24 hours
remain too low to mention at this time.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 938 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Based on satellite, radar, and model trends, have lowered PoPs
across the forecast area for this evening and reduced the cloud
cover forecast...but made no changes beyond 1 a.m. It still looks
like there`s a chance that remnants of the convective systems over
Colorado and the Panhandles will reach our northwestern counties
after midnight.

No other changes are planned for this evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Mid-level clouds across southwestern Oklahoma are likely
associated with a remnant MCV that moved southward from
northwestern Oklahoma. Isolated showers/storms may develop
through the afternoon as this features continues to move
southward.

Most of this evening should be dry, but additional showers and
thunderstorms may move into western and northern Oklahoma during
the overnight hours. Gusty winds, brief heavy rainfall will be
possible with the stronger storms.

On Thursday, surface high pressure will build southward from
southern Canada and the Northern Plains, as a trough moves across
the Great Lakes. An associated cold front is expected to push into
southern Kansas and perhaps northern Oklahoma late Thursday into
Friday. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected to form along and behind the front Thursday night into
at least Friday morning. As the mid and upper level flow becomes
more westerly during this period, locally heavy rainfall and
flooding may develop across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma.
It`s possible that the heavy rain risk may push farther south,
but at this time it appears the northern third of the state has
the greatest risk.

A trough is expected to move across the central Rockies and Plains
over the weekend. This may shift the focus for heavy rainfall
northward into Kansas at least during the first half of the
holiday weekend. By Sunday, rain chances will increase,
especially across northern Oklahoma, as a surface front moves into
northern parts of the state.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  71  93  72  91 /  10  20  30  20
Hobart OK         71  96  73  96 /  10  10  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  72  97  74  97 /  10  10  10  10
Gage OK           70  94  68  91 /  30  50  60  20
Ponca City OK     72  93  70  84 /  30  40  70  60
Durant OK         72  95  73  94 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

23/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 300238
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
938 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Based on satellite, radar, and model trends, have lowered PoPs
across the forecast area for this evening and reduced the cloud
cover forecast...but made no changes beyond 1 a.m. It still looks
like there`s a chance that remnants of the convective systems over
Colorado and the Panhandles will reach our northwestern counties
after midnight.

No other changes are planned for this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 618 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Aviation discussion for the 00 UTC TAFs is below.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to continue.

Chances for TSRA affecting any given TAF site in the next 24 hours
remain too low to mention.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Mid-level clouds across southwestern Oklahoma are likely
associated with a remnant MCV that moved southward from
northwestern Oklahoma. Isolated showers/storms may develop
through the afternoon as this features continues to move
southward.

Most of this evening should be dry, but additional showers and
thunderstorms may move into western and northern Oklahoma during
the overnight hours. Gusty winds, brief heavy rainfall will be
possible with the stronger storms.

On Thursday, surface high pressure will build southward from
southern Canada and the Northern Plains, as a trough moves across
the Great Lakes. An associated cold front is expected to push into
southern Kansas and perhaps northern Oklahoma late Thursday into
Friday. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected to form along and behind the front Thursday night into
at least Friday morning. As the mid and upper level flow becomes
more westerly during this period, locally heavy rainfall and
flooding may develop across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma.
It`s possible that the heavy rain risk may push farther south,
but at this time it appears the northern third of the state has
the greatest risk.

A trough is expected to move across the central Rockies and Plains
over the weekend. This may shift the focus for heavy rainfall
northward into Kansas at least during the first half of the
holiday weekend. By Sunday, rain chances will increase,
especially across northern Oklahoma, as a surface front moves into
northern parts of the state.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  71  93  72  91 /  10  20  30  20
Hobart OK         71  96  73  96 /  10  10  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  72  97  74  97 /  10  10  10  10
Gage OK           70  94  68  91 /  30  50  60  20
Ponca City OK     72  93  70  84 /  30  40  70  60
Durant OK         72  95  73  94 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

23/17




000
FXUS64 KTSA 300103
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
803 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Isolated convection should begin to die off soon as sunset
approaches. Current observational data and short term hi-res model
data doesn`t show an MCS signal for the overnight hours tonight.
Have updated pops to go dry from mid evening on. I did leave the
slight chance pops after midnight with the HRRRX developing some
high based showers or storms across NE OK toward 12z. Updated
products sent.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 609 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Isolated thunderstorms across the area will diminish early in the
TAF period. Additional development across Kansas later tonight may
impact KBVO...so will keep a prob30 at that site. Otherwise...VFR
conditions are expected...and thunderstorm coverage will remain
too low for TAF inclusion at the remaining sites for this period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 306 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms have been persistent across Carroll
county in far northwest Arkansas along a weak frontal boundary
that extends from southwest Missouri into northwest Arkansas.
This activity will more than likely continue into the evening hours
before dissipating this evening with the loss of daytime heating.
Thunderstorms currently developing over northeastern Kansas may
make a run at northwest Arkansas later tonight as well.

Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase Thursday evening into
Friday as a more significant mid-level shortwave embedded in the eroding
northwesterly flow aloft affects the region. The best chances of showers
and thunderstorms will be north of Interstate 40 with the heaviest rainfall
totals expected north of Interstate 44. This area of heaviest rain will be
north of a nearly stationary surface boundary across southeast Oklahoma
and a cold front advancing into southeast Kansas. 1 to 3 inches of rain
rain will be possible in this zone with locally higher amounts. Marginally
severe weather will also be possible with strong gusty winds.

After something of a lull on Saturday, chances of showers and thunderstorms
will increase on Saturday night into Monday as a mid-level shortwave moves
out of the southwest United States and across the plains. Dry weather
returns the middle of next week as a weak mid level ridge builds over
the region.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.

$$


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  93  72  87 /  20  30  60  40
FSM   72  95  73  91 /  20  30  30  40
MLC   71  93  71  91 /  10  10  30  20
BVO   70  92  69  84 /  20  50  70  50
FYV   68  88  69  84 /  20  30  50  50
BYV   68  88  69  84 /  20  30  40  50
MKO   71  92  72  88 /  20  30  50  30
MIO   69  91  69  83 /  20  40  70  50
F10   72  93  72  88 /  10  10  50  20
HHW   71  94  72  94 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....30




000
FXUS64 KOUN 292318
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
618 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Aviation discussion for the 00 UTC TAFs is below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to continue.

Chances for TSRA affecting any given TAF site in the next 24 hours
remain too low to mention.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Mid-level clouds across southwestern Oklahoma are likely
associated with a remnant MCV that moved southward from
northwestern Oklahoma. Isolated showers/storms may develop
through the afternoon as this features continues to move
southward.

Most of this evening should be dry, but additional showers and
thunderstorms may move into western and northern Oklahoma during
the overnight hours. Gusty winds, brief heavy rainfall will be
possible with the stronger storms.

On Thursday, surface high pressure will build southward from
southern Canada and the Northern Plains, as a trough moves across
the Great Lakes. An associated cold front is expected to push into
southern Kansas and perhaps northern Oklahoma late Thursday into
Friday. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected to form along and behind the front Thursday night into
at least Friday morning. As the mid and upper level flow becomes
more westerly during this period, locally heavy rainfall and
flooding may develop across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma.
It`s possible that the heavy rain risk may push farther south,
but at this time it appears the northern third of the state has
the greatest risk.

A trough is expected to move across the central Rockies and Plains
over the weekend. This may shift the focus for heavy rainfall
northward into Kansas at least during the first half of the
holiday weekend. By Sunday, rain chances will increase,
especially across northern Oklahoma, as a surface front moves into
northern parts of the state.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  71  93  72  91 /  10  20  30  20
Hobart OK         71  96  73  96 /  20  10  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  72  97  74  97 /  10  10  10  10
Gage OK           70  94  68  91 /  30  50  60  20
Ponca City OK     72  93  70  84 /  30  40  70  60
Durant OK         72  95  73  94 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

23/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 292318
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
618 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Aviation discussion for the 00 UTC TAFs is below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to continue.

Chances for TSRA affecting any given TAF site in the next 24 hours
remain too low to mention.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Mid-level clouds across southwestern Oklahoma are likely
associated with a remnant MCV that moved southward from
northwestern Oklahoma. Isolated showers/storms may develop
through the afternoon as this features continues to move
southward.

Most of this evening should be dry, but additional showers and
thunderstorms may move into western and northern Oklahoma during
the overnight hours. Gusty winds, brief heavy rainfall will be
possible with the stronger storms.

On Thursday, surface high pressure will build southward from
southern Canada and the Northern Plains, as a trough moves across
the Great Lakes. An associated cold front is expected to push into
southern Kansas and perhaps northern Oklahoma late Thursday into
Friday. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected to form along and behind the front Thursday night into
at least Friday morning. As the mid and upper level flow becomes
more westerly during this period, locally heavy rainfall and
flooding may develop across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma.
It`s possible that the heavy rain risk may push farther south,
but at this time it appears the northern third of the state has
the greatest risk.

A trough is expected to move across the central Rockies and Plains
over the weekend. This may shift the focus for heavy rainfall
northward into Kansas at least during the first half of the
holiday weekend. By Sunday, rain chances will increase,
especially across northern Oklahoma, as a surface front moves into
northern parts of the state.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  71  93  72  91 /  10  20  30  20
Hobart OK         71  96  73  96 /  20  10  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  72  97  74  97 /  10  10  10  10
Gage OK           70  94  68  91 /  30  50  60  20
Ponca City OK     72  93  70  84 /  30  40  70  60
Durant OK         72  95  73  94 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

23/17/17




000
FXUS64 KTSA 292309
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
609 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Isolated thunderstorms across the area will diminish early in the
TAF period. Additional development across Kansas later tonight may
impact KBVO...so will keep a prob30 at that site. Otherwise...VFR
conditions are expected...and thunderstorm coverage will remain
too low for TAF inclusion at the remaining sites for this period.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 306 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms have been persistent across Carroll
county in far northwest Arkansas along a weak frontal boundary
that extends from southwest Missouri into northwest Arkansas.
This activity will more than likely continue into the evening hours
before dissipating this evening with the loss of daytime heating.
Thunderstorms currently developing over northeastern Kansas may
make a run at northwest Arkansas later tonight as well.

Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase Thursday evening into
Friday as a more significant mid-level shortwave embedded in the eroding
northwesterly flow aloft affects the region. The best chances of showers
and thunderstorms will be north of Interstate 40 with the heaviest rainfall
totals expected north of Interstate 44. This area of heaviest rain will be
north of a nearly stationary surface boundary across southeast Oklahoma
and a cold front advancing into southeast Kansas. 1 to 3 inches of rain
rain will be possible in this zone with locally higher amounts. Marginally
severe weather will also be possible with strong gusty winds.

After something of a lull on Saturday, chances of showers and thunderstorms
will increase on Saturday night into Monday as a mid-level shortwave moves
out of the southwest United States and across the plains. Dry weather
returns the middle of next week as a weak mid level ridge builds over
the region.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 292309
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
609 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Isolated thunderstorms across the area will diminish early in the
TAF period. Additional development across Kansas later tonight may
impact KBVO...so will keep a prob30 at that site. Otherwise...VFR
conditions are expected...and thunderstorm coverage will remain
too low for TAF inclusion at the remaining sites for this period.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 306 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms have been persistent across Carroll
county in far northwest Arkansas along a weak frontal boundary
that extends from southwest Missouri into northwest Arkansas.
This activity will more than likely continue into the evening hours
before dissipating this evening with the loss of daytime heating.
Thunderstorms currently developing over northeastern Kansas may
make a run at northwest Arkansas later tonight as well.

Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase Thursday evening into
Friday as a more significant mid-level shortwave embedded in the eroding
northwesterly flow aloft affects the region. The best chances of showers
and thunderstorms will be north of Interstate 40 with the heaviest rainfall
totals expected north of Interstate 44. This area of heaviest rain will be
north of a nearly stationary surface boundary across southeast Oklahoma
and a cold front advancing into southeast Kansas. 1 to 3 inches of rain
rain will be possible in this zone with locally higher amounts. Marginally
severe weather will also be possible with strong gusty winds.

After something of a lull on Saturday, chances of showers and thunderstorms
will increase on Saturday night into Monday as a mid-level shortwave moves
out of the southwest United States and across the plains. Dry weather
returns the middle of next week as a weak mid level ridge builds over
the region.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 292051
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
351 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Mid-level clouds across southwestern Oklahoma are likely
associated with a remnant MCV that moved southward from
northwestern Oklahoma. Isolated showers/storms may develop
through the afternoon as this features continues to move
southward.

Most of this evening should be dry, but additional showers and
thunderstorms may move into western and northern Oklahoma during
the overnight hours. Gusty winds, brief heavy rainfall will be
possible with the stronger storms.

On Thursday, surface high pressure will build southward from
southern Canada and the Northern Plains, as a trough moves across
the Great Lakes. An associated cold front is expected to push into
southern Kansas and perhaps northern Oklahoma late Thursday into
Friday. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected to form along and behind the front Thursday night into
at least Friday morning. As the mid and upper level flow becomes
more westerly during this period, locally heavy rainfall and
flooding may develop across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma.
It`s possible that the heavy rain risk may push farther south,
but at this time it appears the northern third of the state has
the greatest risk.

A trough is expected to move across the central Rockies and Plains
over the weekend. This may shift the focus for heavy rainfall
northward into Kansas at least during the first half of the
holiday weekend. By Sunday, rain chances will increase,
especially across northern Oklahoma, as a surface front moves into
northern parts of the state.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  71  93  72  91 /  10  20  30  20
Hobart OK         71  96  73  96 /  20  10  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  72  97  74  97 /  10  10  10  10
Gage OK           70  94  68  91 /  30  50  60  20
Ponca City OK     72  93  70  84 /  30  40  70  60
Durant OK         72  95  73  94 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 292006
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
306 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms have been persistent across Carroll
county in far northwest Arkansas along a weak frontal boundary
that extends from southwest Missouri into northwest Arkansas.
This activity will more than likely continue into the evening hours
before dissipating this evening with the loss of daytime heating.
Thunderstorms currently developing over northeastern Kansas may
make a run at northwest Arkansas later tonight as well.

Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase Thursday evening into
Friday as a more significant mid-level shortwave embedded in the eroding
northwesterly flow aloft affects the region. The best chances of showers
and thunderstorms will be north of Interstate 40 with the heaviest rainfall
totals expected north of Interstate 44. This area of heaviest rain will be
north of a nearly stationary surface boundary across southeast Oklahoma
and a cold front advancing into southeast Kansas. 1 to 3 inches of rain
rain will be possible in this zone with locally higher amounts. Marginally
severe weather will also be possible with strong gusty winds.

After something of a lull on Saturday, chances of showers and thunderstorms
will increase on Saturday night into Monday as a mid-level shortwave moves
out of the southwest United States and across the plains. Dry weather
returns the middle of next week as a weak mid level ridge builds over
the region.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  93  72  87 /  20  30  60  40
FSM   72  95  73  91 /  20  30  30  40
MLC   71  93  71  91 /  10  10  30  20
BVO   70  92  69  84 /  20  50  70  50
FYV   68  88  69  84 /  20  30  50  50
BYV   68  88  69  84 /  20  30  40  50
MKO   71  92  72  88 /  20  30  50  30
MIO   69  91  69  83 /  20  40  70  50
F10   72  93  72  88 /  10  10  50  20
HHW   71  94  72  94 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....10




000
FXUS64 KTSA 291741
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1241 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Brief IFR conditions will be possible with any thunderstorm
activity that develops over NW AR TAF sites, otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected.  Additional showers/thunderstorms
possible at BVO late tonight into Thursday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1143 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers/thunderstorms possible this afternoon across
NE OK/NW AR with moist/unstable airmass in place under northwest
flow aloft.  Best precipitation chances will likely be across
NW Arkansas in the higher terrain areas.  Overall, current forecast
on track with only minor changes. Isolated thunder chances were
added over NE OK this afternoon through tonight given some of the
latest 12z model guidance.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.

$$


&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12




000
FXUS64 KOUN 291733
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1233 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.AVIATION...
Most of the precipitation associated with a convective
system has dissipated this morning. The remaining high clouds
should continue to thin through the afternoon. An associated
outflow boundary has pushed well south into the Texas Panhandle
and western north Texas. Any development along it should not have
an impact at TAF locations this afternoon. Later tonight, storms
may move into northwestern Oklahoma as another convective complex
is expected to develop well north of Oklahoma during the late
afternoon.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 623 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF discussion below.

AVIATION...
Area of showers/storms will move south across portions of western
OK this morning. Additional shower/storm development will be
possible this afternoon and tonight but things are too uncertain
at this point to put a mention in the TAF at most sites. If storms
occur this afternoon/tonight, strong variable winds will be
possible.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 343 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
MCS moving across western KS early this morning will continue to
move south across the panhandles with eastern portions of the
complex affecting western parts of the area this morning. How far
east into the fa and how far south across the fa this complex will
affect is a bit uncertain but the eastern edge is diminishing some
in kansas right now so think will stay confined to western third
or less of the fa.

Additional showers/storms may be possible this afternoon due to
any lingering boundaries from the overnight/morning convection and
sfc heating. With not knowing exactly where this will occur have
put low pops in everywhere for this afternoon/early evening.

Challenges continue with the forecast of shower/storm chances.
Daily rain chances will continue into early next week. The most
likely and most confident portion of the forecast will be Thursday
into Friday. Models have consistently shown a frontal boundary
moving into and stalling over portions of the area, with the
highest chances for rain across northern Oklahoma. The next most
confident time will be with a shortwave moving out of the
Southwest U.S. into the Central/Southern Plains this weekend.
Models have shown this feature for several runs now with a chance
for rain across parts of the fa. Otherwise, where/when
showers/storms develop will likely be dependent on more
subtle/smaller scale features that are harder to predict. What
happens each afternoon/evening will likely depend on what happens
during the overnight/morning periods. Disturbances in the flow,
lingering boundaries, and heating could all contribute to storm
development. Heavy rain leading to localized flooding continues to
be the main concern into early next week. However, some strong to
severe storms will be possible at times as well, with strong
winds the main concern.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  70  93  72  91 /  20  20  30  30
Hobart OK         70  97  72  96 /  20  20  30  20
Wichita Falls TX  71  98  74  97 /  10  10  10  10
Gage OK           69  95  67  88 /  30  50  60  40
Ponca City OK     71  93  70  84 /  30  50  70  50
Durant OK         71  94  72  94 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 291643
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1143 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers/thunderstorms possible this afternoon across
NE OK/NW AR with moist/unstable airmass in place under northwest
flow aloft.  Best precipitation chances will likely be across
NW Arkansas in the higher terrain areas.  Overall, current forecast
on track with only minor changes. Isolated thunder chances were
added over NE OK this afternoon through tonight given some of the
latest 12z model guidance.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12




000
FXUS64 KOUN 291123
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
623 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Area of showers/storms will move south across portions of western
OK this morning. Additional shower/storm development will be
possible this afternoon and tonight but things are too uncertain
at this point to put a mention in the TAF at most sites. If storms
occur this afternoon/tonight, strong variable winds will be
possible.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 343 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
MCS moving across western KS early this morning will continue to
move south across the panhandles with eastern portions of the
complex affecting western parts of the area this morning. How far
east into the fa and how far south across the fa this complex will
affect is a bit uncertain but the eastern edge is diminishing some
in kansas right now so think will stay confined to western third
or less of the fa.

Additional showers/storms may be possible this afternoon due to
any lingering boundaries from the overnight/morning convection and
sfc heating. With not knowing exactly where this will occur have
put low pops in everywhere for this afternoon/early evening.

Challenges continue with the forecast of shower/storm chances.
Daily rain chances will continue into early next week. The most
likely and most confident portion of the forecast will be Thursday
into Friday. Models have consistently shown a frontal boundary
moving into and stalling over portions of the area, with the
highest chances for rain across northern Oklahoma. The next most
confident time will be with a shortwave moving out of the
Southwest U.S. into the Central/Southern Plains this weekend.
Models have shown this feature for several runs now with a chance
for rain across parts of the fa. Otherwise, where/when
showers/storms develop will likely be dependent on more
subtle/smaller scale features that are harder to predict. What
happens each afternoon/evening will likely depend on what happens
during the overnight/morning periods. Disturbances in the flow,
lingering boundaries, and heating could all contribute to storm
development. Heavy rain leading to localized flooding continues to
be the main concern into early next week. However, some strong to
severe storms will be possible at times as well, with strong
winds the main concern.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  93  70  93  72 /  20  20  20  30
Hobart OK         94  70  97  72 /  30  20  20  30
Wichita Falls TX  96  71  98  74 /  20  10  10  10
Gage OK           93  69  95  67 /  70  30  50  60
Ponca City OK     92  71  93  70 /  20  30  50  70
Durant OK         94  71  94  72 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

03/25/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 291123
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
623 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Area of showers/storms will move south across portions of western
OK this morning. Additional shower/storm development will be
possible this afternoon and tonight but things are too uncertain
at this point to put a mention in the TAF at most sites. If storms
occur this afternoon/tonight, strong variable winds will be
possible.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 343 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
MCS moving across western KS early this morning will continue to
move south across the panhandles with eastern portions of the
complex affecting western parts of the area this morning. How far
east into the fa and how far south across the fa this complex will
affect is a bit uncertain but the eastern edge is diminishing some
in kansas right now so think will stay confined to western third
or less of the fa.

Additional showers/storms may be possible this afternoon due to
any lingering boundaries from the overnight/morning convection and
sfc heating. With not knowing exactly where this will occur have
put low pops in everywhere for this afternoon/early evening.

Challenges continue with the forecast of shower/storm chances.
Daily rain chances will continue into early next week. The most
likely and most confident portion of the forecast will be Thursday
into Friday. Models have consistently shown a frontal boundary
moving into and stalling over portions of the area, with the
highest chances for rain across northern Oklahoma. The next most
confident time will be with a shortwave moving out of the
Southwest U.S. into the Central/Southern Plains this weekend.
Models have shown this feature for several runs now with a chance
for rain across parts of the fa. Otherwise, where/when
showers/storms develop will likely be dependent on more
subtle/smaller scale features that are harder to predict. What
happens each afternoon/evening will likely depend on what happens
during the overnight/morning periods. Disturbances in the flow,
lingering boundaries, and heating could all contribute to storm
development. Heavy rain leading to localized flooding continues to
be the main concern into early next week. However, some strong to
severe storms will be possible at times as well, with strong
winds the main concern.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  93  70  93  72 /  20  20  20  30
Hobart OK         94  70  97  72 /  30  20  20  30
Wichita Falls TX  96  71  98  74 /  20  10  10  10
Gage OK           93  69  95  67 /  70  30  50  60
Ponca City OK     92  71  93  70 /  20  30  50  70
Durant OK         94  71  94  72 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

03/25/25




000
FXUS64 KTSA 291054
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
554 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast
period, with the possible exception of patchy light fog across
northwest AR. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms possible across far
eastern OK and western AR but coverage too limited to include in
forecast at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 343 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
MCS activity has remained well west of the area with any precip
chances today confined to the favored terrain areas. High temps
will continue well above normal. Weak frontal boundary pushes to
near the OK KS border by Thurs afternoon and will be the focus for
rather widespread convection by late afternoon and likely
continuing into the early morning hours on Friday. Expect any
cooling effects from precip / cloud cover to be delayed until
highs on Thursday again warm well into the 90s. Given this
expectation the undisturbed environment south of the boundary will
be well mixed and strongly unstable amidst seasonably strong
shear. This will support severe potential Thurs afternoon and
evening.

The composite outflow / frontal boundary will be further south on
Friday and again serve as focus for continued storm chances. This
boundary may remain active all of Thurs night into Friday
afternoon as suggested by the strong thermal gradient most models
maintain across northern portions of the area. Given the
uncertainty in maintaining this convective influence through the
entire day it is safest to say temps will be either hot or cold or
Friday.

The flattening upper ridge allows a stronger wave to track toward
the Southern Plains by the weekend with associated pressure falls
attempting to lift the aforementioned boundary northward. How far
this feature lifts northward will dictate the zone of highest
storm chances...while areas further south quickly return to above
normal temps. The eventual rainfall over the coming days will
dictate how quickly temps warm by mid next week. The developing
pattern looks hot and triple digit heat by mid next week will only
be hindered by a significant rainfall footprint.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  73  96  72 /  10  10  30  60
FSM   96  72  96  73 /  10  10  10  30
MLC   95  71  96  71 /  10  10  10  20
BVO   95  68  93  69 /  10  10  60  80
FYV   89  66  91  68 /  20  10  30  60
BYV   88  66  90  67 /  20  10  40  70
MKO   96  69  96  71 /  10  10  20  50
MIO   93  69  91  69 /  10  10  60  80
F10   97  70  96  71 /  10   0  20  50
HHW   95  70  96  71 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...14




000
FXUS64 KOUN 290843
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
343 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
MCS moving across western KS early this morning will continue to
move south across the panhandles with eastern portions of the
complex affecting western parts of the area this morning. How far
east into the fa and how far south across the fa this complex will
affect is a bit uncertain but the eastern edge is diminishing some
in kansas right now so think will stay confined to western third
or less of the fa.

Additional showers/storms may be possible this afternoon due to
any lingering boundaries from the overnight/morning convection and
sfc heating. With not knowing exactly where this will occur have
put low pops in everywhere for this afternoon/early evening.

Challenges continue with the forecast of shower/storm chances.
Daily rain chances will continue into early next week. The most
likely and most confident portion of the forecast will be Thursday
into Friday. Models have consistently shown a frontal boundary
moving into and stalling over portions of the area, with the
highest chances for rain across northern Oklahoma. The next most
confident time will be with a shortwave moving out of the
Southwest U.S. into the Central/Southern Plains this weekend.
Models have shown this feature for several runs now with a chance
for rain across parts of the fa. Otherwise, where/when
showers/storms develop will likely be dependent on more
subtle/smaller scale features that are harder to predict. What
happens each afternoon/evening will likely depend on what happens
during the overnight/morning periods. Disturbances in the flow,
lingering boundaries, and heating could all contribute to storm
development. Heavy rain leading to localized flooding continues to
be the main concern into early next week. However, some strong to
severe storms will be possible at times as well, with strong
winds the main concern.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  93  70  93  72 /  20  20  20  30
Hobart OK         94  70  97  72 /  30  20  20  30
Wichita Falls TX  96  71  98  74 /  20  10  10  10
Gage OK           93  69  95  67 /  70  30  50  60
Ponca City OK     92  71  93  70 /  20  30  50  70
Durant OK         94  71  94  72 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

03/25




000
FXUS64 KTSA 290843
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
343 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
MCS activity has remained well west of the area with any precip
chances today confined to the favored terrain areas. High temps
will continue well above normal. Weak frontal boundary pushes to
near the OK KS border by Thurs afternoon and will be the focus for
rather widespread convection by late afternoon and likely
continuing into the early morning hours on Friday. Expect any
cooling effects from precip / cloud cover to be delayed until
highs on Thursday again warm well into the 90s. Given this
expectation the undisturbed environment south of the boundary will
be well mixed and strongly unstable amidst seasonably strong
shear. This will support severe potential Thurs afternoon and
evening.

The composite outflow / frontal boundary will be further south on
Friday and again serve as focus for continued storm chances. This
boundary may remain active all of Thurs night into Friday
afternoon as suggested by the strong thermal gradient most models
maintain across northern portions of the area. Given the
uncertainty in maintaining this convective influence through the
entire day it is safest to say temps will be either hot or cold or
Friday.

The flattening upper ridge allows a stronger wave to track toward
the Southern Plains by the weekend with associated pressure falls
attempting to lift the aforementioned boundary northward. How far
this feature lifts northward will dictate the zone of highest
storm chances...while areas further south quickly return to above
normal temps. The eventual rainfall over the coming days will
dictate how quickly temps warm by mid next week. The developing
pattern looks hot and triple digit heat by mid next week will only
be hindered by a significant rainfall footprint.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  73  96  72 /  10  10  30  60
FSM   96  72  96  73 /  10  10  10  30
MLC   95  71  96  71 /  10  10  10  20
BVO   95  68  93  69 /  10  10  60  80
FYV   89  66  91  68 /  20  10  30  60
BYV   88  66  90  67 /  20  10  40  70
MKO   96  69  96  71 /  10  10  20  50
MIO   93  69  91  69 /  10  10  60  80
F10   97  70  96  71 /  10   0  20  50
HHW   95  70  96  71 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities