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000
FXUS64 KTSA 301046
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
546 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ASIDE FROM SOME LIGHT MORNING FOG AT THE USUAL TROUBLE SPOTS
(KBVO)...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ONCE
DAYTIME HEATING GETS GOING...EXPECT SOME SCT AFTERNOON CU. SOUTH
WINDS MAY GUST IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ACROSS NE OK BY MIDDAY.
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS LATE TONIGHT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A
MENTION IN THE KBVO TAF AT THIS TIME.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER
RIDGING DOWNSTREAM FROM WESTERN U.S. LONGWAVE TROUGH TODAY... WITH
TEMPS ONCE AGAIN REACHING WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF WESTERN TROUGH IN SOME AREAS BY
TONIGHT AND MORE SOME WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS SECOND WAVE OF
ENERGY NOW MOVING ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW ROUNDS TROUGH AND
EVENTUALLY SWEEPS THROUGH THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
FINALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO
THIS. EXPECT SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE DRY LINE OUT WEST
LATE TODAY AND WHILE SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY
MAKE A RUN TOWARD NE OK TONIGHT...SUFFICIENT CAPPING SHOULD REMAIN
IN PLACE TO CONFINE ANY RAIN CHANCES TO AREAS NW OF TULSA. APPEARS
THE CAP MAY HOLD WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONFINED MORE TO AREAS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
SWEEP THROUGH ON THURSDAY PROVIDING US WITH OUR BEST OPPORTUNITY
FOR RAIN IN SOME TIME. AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
SPREAD OVER THE AREA...EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ALL DEVELOP STRONG INSTABILITY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPS MOVE IN AND SFC DEW POINTS
REMAIN HIGH IN ADVANCE OF FRONT. FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY AND POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS LOOKS HIGHEST FOR
EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR DURING THIS TIME.

MUCH COOLER TEMPS FRIDAY AS MAIN SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF TASTE OF FALL WEATHER BEFORE TEMPS
MODERATE AND RETURN ABOVE NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  68  88  71 /  10  20  20  50
FSM   87  65  88  71 /   0  10  10  20
MLC   88  68  89  72 /  10  10  10  30
BVO   86  66  86  68 /  10  30  30  60
FYV   85  63  84  68 /   0  10  10  30
BYV   84  63  85  68 /   0  10  20  20
MKO   87  66  88  70 /  10  10  10  50
MIO   85  66  86  69 /   0  20  30  60
F10   88  68  89  71 /  10  10  10  50
HHW   86  67  88  72 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 301046
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
546 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ASIDE FROM SOME LIGHT MORNING FOG AT THE USUAL TROUBLE SPOTS
(KBVO)...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ONCE
DAYTIME HEATING GETS GOING...EXPECT SOME SCT AFTERNOON CU. SOUTH
WINDS MAY GUST IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ACROSS NE OK BY MIDDAY.
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS LATE TONIGHT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A
MENTION IN THE KBVO TAF AT THIS TIME.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER
RIDGING DOWNSTREAM FROM WESTERN U.S. LONGWAVE TROUGH TODAY... WITH
TEMPS ONCE AGAIN REACHING WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF WESTERN TROUGH IN SOME AREAS BY
TONIGHT AND MORE SOME WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS SECOND WAVE OF
ENERGY NOW MOVING ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW ROUNDS TROUGH AND
EVENTUALLY SWEEPS THROUGH THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
FINALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO
THIS. EXPECT SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE DRY LINE OUT WEST
LATE TODAY AND WHILE SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY
MAKE A RUN TOWARD NE OK TONIGHT...SUFFICIENT CAPPING SHOULD REMAIN
IN PLACE TO CONFINE ANY RAIN CHANCES TO AREAS NW OF TULSA. APPEARS
THE CAP MAY HOLD WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONFINED MORE TO AREAS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
SWEEP THROUGH ON THURSDAY PROVIDING US WITH OUR BEST OPPORTUNITY
FOR RAIN IN SOME TIME. AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
SPREAD OVER THE AREA...EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ALL DEVELOP STRONG INSTABILITY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPS MOVE IN AND SFC DEW POINTS
REMAIN HIGH IN ADVANCE OF FRONT. FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY AND POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS LOOKS HIGHEST FOR
EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR DURING THIS TIME.

MUCH COOLER TEMPS FRIDAY AS MAIN SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF TASTE OF FALL WEATHER BEFORE TEMPS
MODERATE AND RETURN ABOVE NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  68  88  71 /  10  20  20  50
FSM   87  65  88  71 /   0  10  10  20
MLC   88  68  89  72 /  10  10  10  30
BVO   86  66  86  68 /  10  30  30  60
FYV   85  63  84  68 /   0  10  10  30
BYV   84  63  85  68 /   0  10  20  20
MKO   87  66  88  70 /  10  10  10  50
MIO   85  66  86  69 /   0  20  30  60
F10   88  68  89  71 /  10  10  10  50
HHW   86  67  88  72 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30





  [top]

000
FXUS64 KOUN 300931
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
431 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION COMING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING HAS GENERALLY
BEEN WANING.. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING IN NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE LAST 45 MINUTES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHER STORM
CHANCES DEVELOP TOMORROW EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS FRONT WILL TEMPORARILY
BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK. BUT THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS /ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF/ SHOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  88  68  90  68 /   0  20  10  40
HOBART OK         88  67  91  66 /  10  20  20  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  91  70  93  71 /   0  20  20  20
GAGE OK           85  60  89  57 /  30  30  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     86  66  88  65 /  10  40  30  50
DURANT OK         88  68  90  71 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99



000
FXUS64 KOUN 300931
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
431 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION COMING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING HAS GENERALLY
BEEN WANING.. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING IN NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE LAST 45 MINUTES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHER STORM
CHANCES DEVELOP TOMORROW EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS FRONT WILL TEMPORARILY
BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK. BUT THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS /ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF/ SHOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  88  68  90  68 /   0  20  10  40
HOBART OK         88  67  91  66 /  10  20  20  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  91  70  93  71 /   0  20  20  20
GAGE OK           85  60  89  57 /  30  30  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     86  66  88  65 /  10  40  30  50
DURANT OK         88  68  90  71 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99



000
FXUS64 KOUN 300931
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
431 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION COMING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING HAS GENERALLY
BEEN WANING.. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING IN NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE LAST 45 MINUTES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHER STORM
CHANCES DEVELOP TOMORROW EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS FRONT WILL TEMPORARILY
BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK. BUT THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS /ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF/ SHOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  88  68  90  68 /   0  20  10  40
HOBART OK         88  67  91  66 /  10  20  20  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  91  70  93  71 /   0  20  20  20
GAGE OK           85  60  89  57 /  30  30  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     86  66  88  65 /  10  40  30  50
DURANT OK         88  68  90  71 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99



000
FXUS64 KOUN 300931
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
431 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION COMING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING HAS GENERALLY
BEEN WANING.. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING IN NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE LAST 45 MINUTES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHER STORM
CHANCES DEVELOP TOMORROW EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS FRONT WILL TEMPORARILY
BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK. BUT THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS /ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF/ SHOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  88  68  90  68 /   0  20  10  40
HOBART OK         88  67  91  66 /  10  20  20  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  91  70  93  71 /   0  20  20  20
GAGE OK           85  60  89  57 /  30  30  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     86  66  88  65 /  10  40  30  50
DURANT OK         88  68  90  71 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99



000
FXUS64 KTSA 300911
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
411 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER
RIDGING DOWNSTREAM FROM WESTERN U.S. LONGWAVE TROUGH TODAY... WITH
TEMPS ONCE AGAIN REACHING WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF WESTERN TROUGH IN SOME AREAS BY
TONIGHT AND MORE SOME WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS SECOND WAVE OF
ENERGY NOW MOVING ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW ROUNDS TROUGH AND
EVENTUALLY SWEEPS THROUGH THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
FINALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO
THIS. EXPECT SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE DRY LINE OUT WEST
LATE TODAY AND WHILE SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY
MAKE A RUN TOWARD NE OK TONIGHT...SUFFICIENT CAPPING SHOULD REMAIN
IN PLACE TO CONFINE ANY RAIN CHANCES TO AREAS NW OF TULSA. APPEARS
THE CAP MAY HOLD WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONFINED MORE TO AREAS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
SWEEP THROUGH ON THURSDAY PROVIDING US WITH OUR BEST OPPORTUNITY
FOR RAIN IN SOME TIME. AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
SPREAD OVER THE AREA...EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ALL DEVELOP STRONG INSTABILITY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPS MOVE IN AND SFC DEW POINTS
REMAIN HIGH IN ADVANCE OF FRONT. FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY AND POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS LOOKS HIGHEST FOR
EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR DURING THIS TIME.

MUCH COOLER TEMPS FRIDAY AS MAIN SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF TASTE OF FALL WEATHER BEFORE TEMPS
MODERATE AND RETURN ABOVE NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  68  88  71 /  10  20  20  50
FSM   87  65  88  71 /   0  10  10  20
MLC   88  68  89  72 /  10  10  10  30
BVO   86  66  86  68 /  10  30  30  60
FYV   85  63  84  68 /   0  10  10  30
BYV   84  63  85  68 /   0  10  20  20
MKO   87  66  88  70 /  10  10  10  50
MIO   85  66  86  69 /   0  20  30  60
F10   88  68  89  71 /  10  10  10  50
HHW   86  67  88  72 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....14








000
FXUS64 KTSA 300911
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
411 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER
RIDGING DOWNSTREAM FROM WESTERN U.S. LONGWAVE TROUGH TODAY... WITH
TEMPS ONCE AGAIN REACHING WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF WESTERN TROUGH IN SOME AREAS BY
TONIGHT AND MORE SOME WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS SECOND WAVE OF
ENERGY NOW MOVING ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW ROUNDS TROUGH AND
EVENTUALLY SWEEPS THROUGH THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
FINALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO
THIS. EXPECT SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE DRY LINE OUT WEST
LATE TODAY AND WHILE SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY
MAKE A RUN TOWARD NE OK TONIGHT...SUFFICIENT CAPPING SHOULD REMAIN
IN PLACE TO CONFINE ANY RAIN CHANCES TO AREAS NW OF TULSA. APPEARS
THE CAP MAY HOLD WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONFINED MORE TO AREAS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
SWEEP THROUGH ON THURSDAY PROVIDING US WITH OUR BEST OPPORTUNITY
FOR RAIN IN SOME TIME. AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
SPREAD OVER THE AREA...EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ALL DEVELOP STRONG INSTABILITY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPS MOVE IN AND SFC DEW POINTS
REMAIN HIGH IN ADVANCE OF FRONT. FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY AND POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS LOOKS HIGHEST FOR
EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR DURING THIS TIME.

MUCH COOLER TEMPS FRIDAY AS MAIN SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF TASTE OF FALL WEATHER BEFORE TEMPS
MODERATE AND RETURN ABOVE NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  68  88  71 /  10  20  20  50
FSM   87  65  88  71 /   0  10  10  20
MLC   88  68  89  72 /  10  10  10  30
BVO   86  66  86  68 /  10  30  30  60
FYV   85  63  84  68 /   0  10  10  30
BYV   84  63  85  68 /   0  10  20  20
MKO   87  66  88  70 /  10  10  10  50
MIO   85  66  86  69 /   0  20  30  60
F10   88  68  89  71 /  10  10  10  50
HHW   86  67  88  72 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....14








000
FXUS64 KTSA 300911
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
411 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER
RIDGING DOWNSTREAM FROM WESTERN U.S. LONGWAVE TROUGH TODAY... WITH
TEMPS ONCE AGAIN REACHING WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF WESTERN TROUGH IN SOME AREAS BY
TONIGHT AND MORE SOME WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS SECOND WAVE OF
ENERGY NOW MOVING ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW ROUNDS TROUGH AND
EVENTUALLY SWEEPS THROUGH THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
FINALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO
THIS. EXPECT SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE DRY LINE OUT WEST
LATE TODAY AND WHILE SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY
MAKE A RUN TOWARD NE OK TONIGHT...SUFFICIENT CAPPING SHOULD REMAIN
IN PLACE TO CONFINE ANY RAIN CHANCES TO AREAS NW OF TULSA. APPEARS
THE CAP MAY HOLD WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONFINED MORE TO AREAS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
SWEEP THROUGH ON THURSDAY PROVIDING US WITH OUR BEST OPPORTUNITY
FOR RAIN IN SOME TIME. AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
SPREAD OVER THE AREA...EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ALL DEVELOP STRONG INSTABILITY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPS MOVE IN AND SFC DEW POINTS
REMAIN HIGH IN ADVANCE OF FRONT. FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY AND POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS LOOKS HIGHEST FOR
EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR DURING THIS TIME.

MUCH COOLER TEMPS FRIDAY AS MAIN SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF TASTE OF FALL WEATHER BEFORE TEMPS
MODERATE AND RETURN ABOVE NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  68  88  71 /  10  20  20  50
FSM   87  65  88  71 /   0  10  10  20
MLC   88  68  89  72 /  10  10  10  30
BVO   86  66  86  68 /  10  30  30  60
FYV   85  63  84  68 /   0  10  10  30
BYV   84  63  85  68 /   0  10  20  20
MKO   87  66  88  70 /  10  10  10  50
MIO   85  66  86  69 /   0  20  30  60
F10   88  68  89  71 /  10  10  10  50
HHW   86  67  88  72 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....14








000
FXUS64 KTSA 300911
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
411 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER
RIDGING DOWNSTREAM FROM WESTERN U.S. LONGWAVE TROUGH TODAY... WITH
TEMPS ONCE AGAIN REACHING WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF WESTERN TROUGH IN SOME AREAS BY
TONIGHT AND MORE SOME WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS SECOND WAVE OF
ENERGY NOW MOVING ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW ROUNDS TROUGH AND
EVENTUALLY SWEEPS THROUGH THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
FINALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO
THIS. EXPECT SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE DRY LINE OUT WEST
LATE TODAY AND WHILE SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY
MAKE A RUN TOWARD NE OK TONIGHT...SUFFICIENT CAPPING SHOULD REMAIN
IN PLACE TO CONFINE ANY RAIN CHANCES TO AREAS NW OF TULSA. APPEARS
THE CAP MAY HOLD WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONFINED MORE TO AREAS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
SWEEP THROUGH ON THURSDAY PROVIDING US WITH OUR BEST OPPORTUNITY
FOR RAIN IN SOME TIME. AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
SPREAD OVER THE AREA...EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ALL DEVELOP STRONG INSTABILITY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPS MOVE IN AND SFC DEW POINTS
REMAIN HIGH IN ADVANCE OF FRONT. FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY AND POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS LOOKS HIGHEST FOR
EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR DURING THIS TIME.

MUCH COOLER TEMPS FRIDAY AS MAIN SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF TASTE OF FALL WEATHER BEFORE TEMPS
MODERATE AND RETURN ABOVE NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  68  88  71 /  10  20  20  50
FSM   87  65  88  71 /   0  10  10  20
MLC   88  68  89  72 /  10  10  10  30
BVO   86  66  86  68 /  10  30  30  60
FYV   85  63  84  68 /   0  10  10  30
BYV   84  63  85  68 /   0  10  20  20
MKO   87  66  88  70 /  10  10  10  50
MIO   85  66  86  69 /   0  20  30  60
F10   88  68  89  71 /  10  10  10  50
HHW   86  67  88  72 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....14








000
FXUS64 KOUN 300445
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1145 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE TRYING TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO NW
OK. WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE VCTS STARTING AT 09Z FOR
WWR/GAG...BUT DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE TSRA IN FM
OR TEMPO GROUPS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SSE WINDS OVERNIGHT AROUND 10
KT. VFR WILL APPLY AT ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  87  62  88  67 /   0  10  10  30
HOBART OK         86  62  88  67 /   0  10  20  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  88  63  91  69 /   0   0  10  20
GAGE OK           85  60  85  60 /   0  30  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     86  61  86  65 /   0  10  10  50
DURANT OK         87  63  88  68 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/03/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 300445
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1145 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE TRYING TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO NW
OK. WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE VCTS STARTING AT 09Z FOR
WWR/GAG...BUT DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE TSRA IN FM
OR TEMPO GROUPS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SSE WINDS OVERNIGHT AROUND 10
KT. VFR WILL APPLY AT ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  87  62  88  67 /   0  10  10  30
HOBART OK         86  62  88  67 /   0  10  20  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  88  63  91  69 /   0   0  10  20
GAGE OK           85  60  85  60 /   0  30  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     86  61  86  65 /   0  10  10  50
DURANT OK         87  63  88  68 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/03/03



000
FXUS64 KTSA 300428
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1128 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT THOUGH NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
LOCALLY DENSE AS PREVIOUS MORNINGS DUE TO SLIGHTLY LOWER
DEWPOINTS. AFTER SUNRISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 901 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE CWA
THIS EVENING. TO THE WEST HIGH CLOUDS WERE APPROACHING THE REGION
AS A LINE OF CONVECTION LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN
COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA
TONIGHT...THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO PUSHES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD BE
COMMON. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THIS
EVENING COMPARED TO 24-HRS AGO AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THE TREND
OF LOW TEMPS CLOSE TO/SLIGHTLY WARMER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
MORNING LOWS. THUS...EVENING UPDATE WILL TO TWEAK SKY/TEMP GRIDS
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  87  67  86 /   0  10  20  30
FSM   62  87  65  88 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   62  85  67  88 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   58  87  63  85 /   0  10  30  40
FYV   56  82  61  83 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   58  83  61  84 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   61  85  65  86 /   0  10  10  20
MIO   59  84  62  85 /   0  10  30  40
F10   61  85  67  87 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   63  86  68  88 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07





000
FXUS64 KTSA 300428
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1128 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT THOUGH NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
LOCALLY DENSE AS PREVIOUS MORNINGS DUE TO SLIGHTLY LOWER
DEWPOINTS. AFTER SUNRISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 901 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE CWA
THIS EVENING. TO THE WEST HIGH CLOUDS WERE APPROACHING THE REGION
AS A LINE OF CONVECTION LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN
COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA
TONIGHT...THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO PUSHES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD BE
COMMON. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THIS
EVENING COMPARED TO 24-HRS AGO AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THE TREND
OF LOW TEMPS CLOSE TO/SLIGHTLY WARMER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
MORNING LOWS. THUS...EVENING UPDATE WILL TO TWEAK SKY/TEMP GRIDS
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  87  67  86 /   0  10  20  30
FSM   62  87  65  88 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   62  85  67  88 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   58  87  63  85 /   0  10  30  40
FYV   56  82  61  83 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   58  83  61  84 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   61  85  65  86 /   0  10  10  20
MIO   59  84  62  85 /   0  10  30  40
F10   61  85  67  87 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   63  86  68  88 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07






000
FXUS64 KOUN 300217
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
917 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
EVENING TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY BASED ON OBSERVATIONS
AND SHORT-TERM MODEL TRENDS. OTHERWISE, NO FORECAST CHANGES ARE
ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO AFFECT PART OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  62  88  67  89 /  10  10  30  20
HOBART OK         62  88  67  91 /  10  20  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  91  69  93 /   0  10  20  20
GAGE OK           60  85  60  88 /  30  30  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     61  86  65  86 /  10  10  50  40
DURANT OK         63  88  68  90 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/03/03



000
FXUS64 KOUN 300217
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
917 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
EVENING TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY BASED ON OBSERVATIONS
AND SHORT-TERM MODEL TRENDS. OTHERWISE, NO FORECAST CHANGES ARE
ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO AFFECT PART OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  62  88  67  89 /  10  10  30  20
HOBART OK         62  88  67  91 /  10  20  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  91  69  93 /   0  10  20  20
GAGE OK           60  85  60  88 /  30  30  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     61  86  65  86 /  10  10  50  40
DURANT OK         63  88  68  90 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/03/03



000
FXUS64 KOUN 300217
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
917 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
EVENING TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY BASED ON OBSERVATIONS
AND SHORT-TERM MODEL TRENDS. OTHERWISE, NO FORECAST CHANGES ARE
ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO AFFECT PART OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  62  88  67  89 /  10  10  30  20
HOBART OK         62  88  67  91 /  10  20  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  91  69  93 /   0  10  20  20
GAGE OK           60  85  60  88 /  30  30  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     61  86  65  86 /  10  10  50  40
DURANT OK         63  88  68  90 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/03/03



000
FXUS64 KOUN 300217
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
917 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
EVENING TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY BASED ON OBSERVATIONS
AND SHORT-TERM MODEL TRENDS. OTHERWISE, NO FORECAST CHANGES ARE
ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO AFFECT PART OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  62  88  67  89 /  10  10  30  20
HOBART OK         62  88  67  91 /  10  20  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  91  69  93 /   0  10  20  20
GAGE OK           60  85  60  88 /  30  30  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     61  86  65  86 /  10  10  50  40
DURANT OK         63  88  68  90 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/03/03



000
FXUS64 KTSA 300201
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
901 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE CWA
THIS EVENING. TO THE WEST HIGH CLOUDS WERE APPROACHING THE REGION
AS A LINE OF CONVECTION LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN
COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA
TONIGHT...THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO PUSHES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD BE
COMMON. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THIS
EVENING COMPARED TO 24-HRS AGO AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THE TREND
OF LOW TEMPS CLOSE TO/SLIGHTLY WARMER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
MORNING LOWS. THUS...EVENING UPDATE WILL TO TWEAK SKY/TEMP GRIDS
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  87  67  86 /   0  10  20  30
FSM   62  87  65  88 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   62  85  67  88 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   58  87  63  85 /   0  10  30  40
FYV   56  82  61  83 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   58  83  61  84 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   61  85  65  86 /   0  10  10  20
MIO   59  84  62  85 /   0  10  30  40
F10   61  85  67  87 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   63  86  68  88 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
AVIATION.....07





000
FXUS64 KTSA 300201
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
901 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE CWA
THIS EVENING. TO THE WEST HIGH CLOUDS WERE APPROACHING THE REGION
AS A LINE OF CONVECTION LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN
COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA
TONIGHT...THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO PUSHES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD BE
COMMON. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THIS
EVENING COMPARED TO 24-HRS AGO AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THE TREND
OF LOW TEMPS CLOSE TO/SLIGHTLY WARMER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
MORNING LOWS. THUS...EVENING UPDATE WILL TO TWEAK SKY/TEMP GRIDS
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  87  67  86 /   0  10  20  30
FSM   62  87  65  88 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   62  85  67  88 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   58  87  63  85 /   0  10  30  40
FYV   56  82  61  83 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   58  83  61  84 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   61  85  65  86 /   0  10  10  20
MIO   59  84  62  85 /   0  10  30  40
F10   61  85  67  87 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   63  86  68  88 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
AVIATION.....07





000
FXUS64 KTSA 300201
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
901 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE CWA
THIS EVENING. TO THE WEST HIGH CLOUDS WERE APPROACHING THE REGION
AS A LINE OF CONVECTION LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN
COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA
TONIGHT...THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO PUSHES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD BE
COMMON. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THIS
EVENING COMPARED TO 24-HRS AGO AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THE TREND
OF LOW TEMPS CLOSE TO/SLIGHTLY WARMER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
MORNING LOWS. THUS...EVENING UPDATE WILL TO TWEAK SKY/TEMP GRIDS
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  87  67  86 /   0  10  20  30
FSM   62  87  65  88 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   62  85  67  88 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   58  87  63  85 /   0  10  30  40
FYV   56  82  61  83 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   58  83  61  84 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   61  85  65  86 /   0  10  10  20
MIO   59  84  62  85 /   0  10  30  40
F10   61  85  67  87 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   63  86  68  88 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
AVIATION.....07





000
FXUS64 KTSA 300201
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
901 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE CWA
THIS EVENING. TO THE WEST HIGH CLOUDS WERE APPROACHING THE REGION
AS A LINE OF CONVECTION LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN
COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA
TONIGHT...THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO PUSHES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD BE
COMMON. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THIS
EVENING COMPARED TO 24-HRS AGO AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THE TREND
OF LOW TEMPS CLOSE TO/SLIGHTLY WARMER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
MORNING LOWS. THUS...EVENING UPDATE WILL TO TWEAK SKY/TEMP GRIDS
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  87  67  86 /   0  10  20  30
FSM   62  87  65  88 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   62  85  67  88 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   58  87  63  85 /   0  10  30  40
FYV   56  82  61  83 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   58  83  61  84 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   61  85  65  86 /   0  10  10  20
MIO   59  84  62  85 /   0  10  30  40
F10   61  85  67  87 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   63  86  68  88 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
AVIATION.....07





000
FXUS64 KTSA 292332
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
632 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
BRIEF EXCEPTION MAY BE LIGHT FOG TONIGHT HOWEVER DEWPOINT TRENDS
ARE NOTABLY DRIER THUS ONLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN WEST REGION...
LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONE MORE DAY OF NEXT TO NIL RAIN
CHANCES. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH AXIS WILL
ROTATE THROUGH. THIS WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING TOMORROW
NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHARPER UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION LATER THURSDAY. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AT THAT TIME...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER
OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT. AFTER THE
INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL
SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS LEADING UP TO THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES FOR EARLY FALL ARE EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  87  67  86 /   0  10  20  30
FSM   61  87  65  88 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   62  85  67  88 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   58  87  63  85 /   0  10  30  40
FYV   56  82  61  83 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   57  83  61  84 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   61  85  65  86 /   0  10  10  20
MIO   60  84  62  85 /   0  10  30  40
F10   61  85  67  87 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   63  86  68  88 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 292332
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
632 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
BRIEF EXCEPTION MAY BE LIGHT FOG TONIGHT HOWEVER DEWPOINT TRENDS
ARE NOTABLY DRIER THUS ONLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN WEST REGION...
LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONE MORE DAY OF NEXT TO NIL RAIN
CHANCES. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH AXIS WILL
ROTATE THROUGH. THIS WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING TOMORROW
NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHARPER UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION LATER THURSDAY. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AT THAT TIME...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER
OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT. AFTER THE
INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL
SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS LEADING UP TO THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES FOR EARLY FALL ARE EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  87  67  86 /   0  10  20  30
FSM   61  87  65  88 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   62  85  67  88 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   58  87  63  85 /   0  10  30  40
FYV   56  82  61  83 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   57  83  61  84 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   61  85  65  86 /   0  10  10  20
MIO   60  84  62  85 /   0  10  30  40
F10   61  85  67  87 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   63  86  68  88 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 292332
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
632 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
BRIEF EXCEPTION MAY BE LIGHT FOG TONIGHT HOWEVER DEWPOINT TRENDS
ARE NOTABLY DRIER THUS ONLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN WEST REGION...
LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONE MORE DAY OF NEXT TO NIL RAIN
CHANCES. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH AXIS WILL
ROTATE THROUGH. THIS WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING TOMORROW
NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHARPER UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION LATER THURSDAY. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AT THAT TIME...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER
OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT. AFTER THE
INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL
SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS LEADING UP TO THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES FOR EARLY FALL ARE EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  87  67  86 /   0  10  20  30
FSM   61  87  65  88 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   62  85  67  88 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   58  87  63  85 /   0  10  30  40
FYV   56  82  61  83 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   57  83  61  84 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   61  85  65  86 /   0  10  10  20
MIO   60  84  62  85 /   0  10  30  40
F10   61  85  67  87 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   63  86  68  88 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 292332
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
632 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
BRIEF EXCEPTION MAY BE LIGHT FOG TONIGHT HOWEVER DEWPOINT TRENDS
ARE NOTABLY DRIER THUS ONLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN WEST REGION...
LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONE MORE DAY OF NEXT TO NIL RAIN
CHANCES. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH AXIS WILL
ROTATE THROUGH. THIS WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING TOMORROW
NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHARPER UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION LATER THURSDAY. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AT THAT TIME...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER
OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT. AFTER THE
INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL
SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS LEADING UP TO THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES FOR EARLY FALL ARE EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  87  67  86 /   0  10  20  30
FSM   61  87  65  88 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   62  85  67  88 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   58  87  63  85 /   0  10  30  40
FYV   56  82  61  83 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   57  83  61  84 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   61  85  65  86 /   0  10  10  20
MIO   60  84  62  85 /   0  10  30  40
F10   61  85  67  87 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   63  86  68  88 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07






000
FXUS64 KOUN 292326
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
626 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL APPLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW STORMS WILL TRY
TO APPROACH NW OK NEAR GAG/WWR LATE TONIGHT AROUND 09Z...BUT
CURRENTLY THINK THEY WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE ARRIVING. WILL MONITOR
THROUGH THE EVENING AND ADJUST TAFS IF NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
S TO SE WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE INTO THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ONE WILL LIFT INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN NW PARTS OF
THE FA LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD FURTHER EAST
TUES NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES NEAR THE AREA. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. SOME STRONG TO MAYBE
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OK TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MAY MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE FA LATE
THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK... BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AFTER
THURSDAY EVENING. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY BEFORE COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY. HOWEVER... TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK UP OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  62  88  67  89 /  10  10  30  20
HOBART OK         62  88  67  91 /  10  20  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  91  69  93 /   0  10  20  20
GAGE OK           60  85  60  88 /  30  30  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     61  86  65  86 /  10  10  50  40
DURANT OK         63  88  68  90 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/03/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 292326
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
626 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL APPLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW STORMS WILL TRY
TO APPROACH NW OK NEAR GAG/WWR LATE TONIGHT AROUND 09Z...BUT
CURRENTLY THINK THEY WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE ARRIVING. WILL MONITOR
THROUGH THE EVENING AND ADJUST TAFS IF NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
S TO SE WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE INTO THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ONE WILL LIFT INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN NW PARTS OF
THE FA LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD FURTHER EAST
TUES NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES NEAR THE AREA. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. SOME STRONG TO MAYBE
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OK TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MAY MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE FA LATE
THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK... BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AFTER
THURSDAY EVENING. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY BEFORE COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY. HOWEVER... TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK UP OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  62  88  67  89 /  10  10  30  20
HOBART OK         62  88  67  91 /  10  20  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  91  69  93 /   0  10  20  20
GAGE OK           60  85  60  88 /  30  30  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     61  86  65  86 /  10  10  50  40
DURANT OK         63  88  68  90 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/03/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 292326
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
626 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL APPLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW STORMS WILL TRY
TO APPROACH NW OK NEAR GAG/WWR LATE TONIGHT AROUND 09Z...BUT
CURRENTLY THINK THEY WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE ARRIVING. WILL MONITOR
THROUGH THE EVENING AND ADJUST TAFS IF NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
S TO SE WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE INTO THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ONE WILL LIFT INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN NW PARTS OF
THE FA LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD FURTHER EAST
TUES NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES NEAR THE AREA. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. SOME STRONG TO MAYBE
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OK TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MAY MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE FA LATE
THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK... BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AFTER
THURSDAY EVENING. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY BEFORE COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY. HOWEVER... TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK UP OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  62  88  67  89 /  10  10  30  20
HOBART OK         62  88  67  91 /  10  20  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  91  69  93 /   0  10  20  20
GAGE OK           60  85  60  88 /  30  30  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     61  86  65  86 /  10  10  50  40
DURANT OK         63  88  68  90 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/03/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 292326
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
626 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL APPLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW STORMS WILL TRY
TO APPROACH NW OK NEAR GAG/WWR LATE TONIGHT AROUND 09Z...BUT
CURRENTLY THINK THEY WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE ARRIVING. WILL MONITOR
THROUGH THE EVENING AND ADJUST TAFS IF NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
S TO SE WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE INTO THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ONE WILL LIFT INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN NW PARTS OF
THE FA LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD FURTHER EAST
TUES NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES NEAR THE AREA. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. SOME STRONG TO MAYBE
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OK TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MAY MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE FA LATE
THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK... BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AFTER
THURSDAY EVENING. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY BEFORE COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY. HOWEVER... TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK UP OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  62  88  67  89 /  10  10  30  20
HOBART OK         62  88  67  91 /  10  20  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  91  69  93 /   0  10  20  20
GAGE OK           60  85  60  88 /  30  30  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     61  86  65  86 /  10  10  50  40
DURANT OK         63  88  68  90 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/03/03




000
FXUS64 KTSA 291959
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
259 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN WEST REGION...
LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONE MORE DAY OF NEXT TO NIL RAIN
CHANCES. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH AXIS WILL
ROTATE THROUGH. THIS WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING TOMORROW
NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHARPER UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION LATER THURSDAY. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AT THAT TIME...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER
OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT. AFTER THE
INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL
SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS LEADING UP TO THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES FOR EARLY FALL ARE EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  87  67  86 /   0  10  20  30
FSM   61  87  65  88 /   0  10  10  20
MLC   62  85  67  88 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   58  87  63  85 /   0  10  30  40
FYV   56  82  61  83 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   57  83  61  84 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   61  85  65  86 /   0  10  10  20
MIO   60  84  62  85 /   0  10  30  40
F10   61  85  67  87 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   63  86  68  88 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....23






000
FXUS64 KTSA 291959
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
259 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN WEST REGION...
LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONE MORE DAY OF NEXT TO NIL RAIN
CHANCES. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH AXIS WILL
ROTATE THROUGH. THIS WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING TOMORROW
NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHARPER UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION LATER THURSDAY. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AT THAT TIME...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER
OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT. AFTER THE
INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL
SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS LEADING UP TO THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES FOR EARLY FALL ARE EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  87  67  86 /   0  10  20  30
FSM   61  87  65  88 /   0  10  10  20
MLC   62  85  67  88 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   58  87  63  85 /   0  10  30  40
FYV   56  82  61  83 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   57  83  61  84 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   61  85  65  86 /   0  10  10  20
MIO   60  84  62  85 /   0  10  30  40
F10   61  85  67  87 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   63  86  68  88 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....23





000
FXUS64 KOUN 291933
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
233 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE INTO THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ONE WILL LIFT INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN NW PARTS OF
THE FA LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD FURTHER EAST
TUES NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES NEAR THE AREA. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. SOME STRONG TO MAYBE
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OK TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MAY MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE FA LATE
THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK... BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AFTER
THURSDAY EVENING. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY BEFORE COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY. HOWEVER... TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK UP OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  62  88  67  89 /  10  10  30  20
HOBART OK         62  88  67  91 /  10  20  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  91  69  93 /   0  10  20  20
GAGE OK           60  85  60  88 /  30  30  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     61  86  65  86 /  10  10  50  40
DURANT OK         63  88  68  90 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

02/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 291933
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
233 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE INTO THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ONE WILL LIFT INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN NW PARTS OF
THE FA LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD FURTHER EAST
TUES NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES NEAR THE AREA. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. SOME STRONG TO MAYBE
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OK TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MAY MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE FA LATE
THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK... BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AFTER
THURSDAY EVENING. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY BEFORE COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY. HOWEVER... TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK UP OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  62  88  67  89 /  10  10  30  20
HOBART OK         62  88  67  91 /  10  20  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  91  69  93 /   0  10  20  20
GAGE OK           60  85  60  88 /  30  30  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     61  86  65  86 /  10  10  50  40
DURANT OK         63  88  68  90 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

02/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 291749
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1249 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL BE ADVANCING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS AFTER 0600Z, WITH LOW TSRA POPS INCREASING FROM THEN THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THESE POPS COULD AFFECT TERMINALS KGAG,
KWWR, AND KCSM IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, THE
POPS REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF THOSE TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN WILL BEGIN TO OPEN UP
AND SHIFT EAST LATER TODAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS THERE WILL BE A LOW
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

SEVERAL WAVES WILL THEN MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS
IN THE TUE-THU TIME FRAME. THIS WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
REMAINDER OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. BEST CHANCE STILL
APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BRING BETTER MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
THE AREA BY MID-WEEK AND THIS MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
RATHER QUICKLY AS WE GET INTO THURSDAY... BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS
MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE.... MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PRECIP
SHOULD END THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF COOL DOWN FOR FRIDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER WARMING TREND COMMENCES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  86  63  88  67 /   0  10  10  30
HOBART OK         86  63  88  67 /   0  10  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  88  64  91  69 /   0  10  10  20
GAGE OK           85  61  85  60 /   0  30  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     86  62  86  65 /   0  10  10  50
DURANT OK         87  64  88  68 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

02/25/67



000
FXUS64 KOUN 291749
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1249 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL BE ADVANCING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS AFTER 0600Z, WITH LOW TSRA POPS INCREASING FROM THEN THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THESE POPS COULD AFFECT TERMINALS KGAG,
KWWR, AND KCSM IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, THE
POPS REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF THOSE TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN WILL BEGIN TO OPEN UP
AND SHIFT EAST LATER TODAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS THERE WILL BE A LOW
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

SEVERAL WAVES WILL THEN MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS
IN THE TUE-THU TIME FRAME. THIS WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
REMAINDER OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. BEST CHANCE STILL
APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BRING BETTER MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
THE AREA BY MID-WEEK AND THIS MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
RATHER QUICKLY AS WE GET INTO THURSDAY... BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS
MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE.... MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PRECIP
SHOULD END THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF COOL DOWN FOR FRIDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER WARMING TREND COMMENCES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  86  63  88  67 /   0  10  10  30
HOBART OK         86  63  88  67 /   0  10  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  88  64  91  69 /   0  10  10  20
GAGE OK           85  61  85  60 /   0  30  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     86  62  86  65 /   0  10  10  50
DURANT OK         87  64  88  68 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

02/25/67




000
FXUS64 KTSA 291707
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1207 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE AT EASTERN OKLAHOMA SITES TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
THE ONLY REAL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FROM YESTERDAY HAS BEEN A
LITTLE PATCHY FOG IN SPOTS THIS MORNING. THIS HAS SLOWED THE
MORNING WARM-UP A BIT IN THOSE AREAS BUT THEY WILL RECOVER
QUICKLY NOW THAT ALL FOG HAS DISSIPATED. OTHERWISE... TODAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MUCH LIKE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND THE FORECAST
HAS THIS HANDLED. NO UPDATE WILL BE NECESSARY THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONCE AGAIN...MVFR VISIBILITY WILL PERSIST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AT
KBVO/KRVS/KFYV/KXNA...WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OTHERWISE WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR VISIBILITY AGAIN AT
SAM LOCATIONS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THERE WERE NO MAJOR SURPRISES IN THE DATA THIS MORNING. RIDGING
ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW. THIS
LEAD SYSTEM WILL FORCE A BOUNDARY DOWN TO NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHERE IT WILL STALL WHILE WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL
OF THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM. STORMS MAY FIRE AS SOON AS LATE TUESDAY
ALONG THE DRYLINE OUT WEST AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY UP THRU CENTRAL
KS. THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY GRAZE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF TULSA TUESDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS
STORMS FORM ALONG STALLING BOUNDARY OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND GROW
UPSCALE WHILE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF
ALL SHOW THIS BASIC IDEA. THE BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE WITH
THIS LATE WEDNESDAY ACTIVITY...DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. LAPSE
RATES ALOFT AREN`T AS FAVORABLE FOR BIG HAIL. THE SHEAR IS ONLY
MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS...THUS MULTICELLS LOOK MORE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION TO THE FOCUSING
BOUNDARIES. THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY SURGE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE VERY PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIVES DOWN
INTO THE PLAINS. STORMS WILL PROBABLY FIRE ALONG IT AS WELL...WITH
LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...LEAVING
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND TO FOLLOW ON A VERY PLEASANT NOTE. THE DRY
AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NW FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO FLAT SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL MODERATE
RATHER QUICKLY TOWARD MIDWEEK DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OFF THE ROCKPILE.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 291707
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1207 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE AT EASTERN OKLAHOMA SITES TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
THE ONLY REAL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FROM YESTERDAY HAS BEEN A
LITTLE PATCHY FOG IN SPOTS THIS MORNING. THIS HAS SLOWED THE
MORNING WARM-UP A BIT IN THOSE AREAS BUT THEY WILL RECOVER
QUICKLY NOW THAT ALL FOG HAS DISSIPATED. OTHERWISE... TODAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MUCH LIKE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND THE FORECAST
HAS THIS HANDLED. NO UPDATE WILL BE NECESSARY THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONCE AGAIN...MVFR VISIBILITY WILL PERSIST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AT
KBVO/KRVS/KFYV/KXNA...WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OTHERWISE WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR VISIBILITY AGAIN AT
SAM LOCATIONS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THERE WERE NO MAJOR SURPRISES IN THE DATA THIS MORNING. RIDGING
ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW. THIS
LEAD SYSTEM WILL FORCE A BOUNDARY DOWN TO NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHERE IT WILL STALL WHILE WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL
OF THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM. STORMS MAY FIRE AS SOON AS LATE TUESDAY
ALONG THE DRYLINE OUT WEST AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY UP THRU CENTRAL
KS. THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY GRAZE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF TULSA TUESDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS
STORMS FORM ALONG STALLING BOUNDARY OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND GROW
UPSCALE WHILE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF
ALL SHOW THIS BASIC IDEA. THE BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE WITH
THIS LATE WEDNESDAY ACTIVITY...DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. LAPSE
RATES ALOFT AREN`T AS FAVORABLE FOR BIG HAIL. THE SHEAR IS ONLY
MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS...THUS MULTICELLS LOOK MORE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION TO THE FOCUSING
BOUNDARIES. THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY SURGE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE VERY PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIVES DOWN
INTO THE PLAINS. STORMS WILL PROBABLY FIRE ALONG IT AS WELL...WITH
LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...LEAVING
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND TO FOLLOW ON A VERY PLEASANT NOTE. THE DRY
AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NW FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO FLAT SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL MODERATE
RATHER QUICKLY TOWARD MIDWEEK DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OFF THE ROCKPILE.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 291707
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1207 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE AT EASTERN OKLAHOMA SITES TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
THE ONLY REAL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FROM YESTERDAY HAS BEEN A
LITTLE PATCHY FOG IN SPOTS THIS MORNING. THIS HAS SLOWED THE
MORNING WARM-UP A BIT IN THOSE AREAS BUT THEY WILL RECOVER
QUICKLY NOW THAT ALL FOG HAS DISSIPATED. OTHERWISE... TODAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MUCH LIKE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND THE FORECAST
HAS THIS HANDLED. NO UPDATE WILL BE NECESSARY THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONCE AGAIN...MVFR VISIBILITY WILL PERSIST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AT
KBVO/KRVS/KFYV/KXNA...WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OTHERWISE WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR VISIBILITY AGAIN AT
SAM LOCATIONS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THERE WERE NO MAJOR SURPRISES IN THE DATA THIS MORNING. RIDGING
ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW. THIS
LEAD SYSTEM WILL FORCE A BOUNDARY DOWN TO NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHERE IT WILL STALL WHILE WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL
OF THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM. STORMS MAY FIRE AS SOON AS LATE TUESDAY
ALONG THE DRYLINE OUT WEST AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY UP THRU CENTRAL
KS. THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY GRAZE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF TULSA TUESDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS
STORMS FORM ALONG STALLING BOUNDARY OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND GROW
UPSCALE WHILE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF
ALL SHOW THIS BASIC IDEA. THE BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE WITH
THIS LATE WEDNESDAY ACTIVITY...DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. LAPSE
RATES ALOFT AREN`T AS FAVORABLE FOR BIG HAIL. THE SHEAR IS ONLY
MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS...THUS MULTICELLS LOOK MORE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION TO THE FOCUSING
BOUNDARIES. THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY SURGE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE VERY PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIVES DOWN
INTO THE PLAINS. STORMS WILL PROBABLY FIRE ALONG IT AS WELL...WITH
LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...LEAVING
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND TO FOLLOW ON A VERY PLEASANT NOTE. THE DRY
AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NW FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO FLAT SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL MODERATE
RATHER QUICKLY TOWARD MIDWEEK DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OFF THE ROCKPILE.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 291707
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1207 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE AT EASTERN OKLAHOMA SITES TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
THE ONLY REAL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FROM YESTERDAY HAS BEEN A
LITTLE PATCHY FOG IN SPOTS THIS MORNING. THIS HAS SLOWED THE
MORNING WARM-UP A BIT IN THOSE AREAS BUT THEY WILL RECOVER
QUICKLY NOW THAT ALL FOG HAS DISSIPATED. OTHERWISE... TODAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MUCH LIKE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND THE FORECAST
HAS THIS HANDLED. NO UPDATE WILL BE NECESSARY THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONCE AGAIN...MVFR VISIBILITY WILL PERSIST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AT
KBVO/KRVS/KFYV/KXNA...WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OTHERWISE WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR VISIBILITY AGAIN AT
SAM LOCATIONS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THERE WERE NO MAJOR SURPRISES IN THE DATA THIS MORNING. RIDGING
ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW. THIS
LEAD SYSTEM WILL FORCE A BOUNDARY DOWN TO NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHERE IT WILL STALL WHILE WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL
OF THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM. STORMS MAY FIRE AS SOON AS LATE TUESDAY
ALONG THE DRYLINE OUT WEST AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY UP THRU CENTRAL
KS. THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY GRAZE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF TULSA TUESDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS
STORMS FORM ALONG STALLING BOUNDARY OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND GROW
UPSCALE WHILE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF
ALL SHOW THIS BASIC IDEA. THE BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE WITH
THIS LATE WEDNESDAY ACTIVITY...DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. LAPSE
RATES ALOFT AREN`T AS FAVORABLE FOR BIG HAIL. THE SHEAR IS ONLY
MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS...THUS MULTICELLS LOOK MORE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION TO THE FOCUSING
BOUNDARIES. THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY SURGE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE VERY PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIVES DOWN
INTO THE PLAINS. STORMS WILL PROBABLY FIRE ALONG IT AS WELL...WITH
LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...LEAVING
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND TO FOLLOW ON A VERY PLEASANT NOTE. THE DRY
AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NW FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO FLAT SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL MODERATE
RATHER QUICKLY TOWARD MIDWEEK DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OFF THE ROCKPILE.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 291534
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1034 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
THE ONLY REAL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FROM YESTERDAY HAS BEEN A
LITTLE PATCHY FOG IN SPOTS THIS MORNING. THIS HAS SLOWED THE
MORNING WARM-UP A BIT IN THOSE AREAS BUT THEY WILL RECOVER
QUICKLY NOW THAT ALL FOG HAS DISSIPATED. OTHERWISE... TODAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MUCH LIKE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND THE FORECAST
HAS THIS HANDLED. NO UPDATE WILL BE NECESSARY THIS MORNING.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONCE AGAIN...MVFR VISIBILITY WILL PERSIST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AT
KBVO/KRVS/KFYV/KXNA...WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OTHERWISE WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR VISIBILITY AGAIN AT
SAM LOCATIONS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THERE WERE NO MAJOR SURPRISES IN THE DATA THIS MORNING. RIDGING
ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW. THIS
LEAD SYSTEM WILL FORCE A BOUNDARY DOWN TO NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHERE IT WILL STALL WHILE WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL
OF THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM. STORMS MAY FIRE AS SOON AS LATE TUESDAY
ALONG THE DRYLINE OUT WEST AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY UP THRU CENTRAL
KS. THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY GRAZE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF TULSA TUESDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS
STORMS FORM ALONG STALLING BOUNDARY OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND GROW
UPSCALE WHILE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF
ALL SHOW THIS BASIC IDEA. THE BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE WITH
THIS LATE WEDNESDAY ACTIVITY...DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. LAPSE
RATES ALOFT AREN`T AS FAVORABLE FOR BIG HAIL. THE SHEAR IS ONLY
MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS...THUS MULTICELLS LOOK MORE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION TO THE FOCUSING
BOUNDARIES. THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY SURGE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE VERY PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIVES DOWN
INTO THE PLAINS. STORMS WILL PROBABLY FIRE ALONG IT AS WELL...WITH
LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...LEAVING
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND TO FOLLOW ON A VERY PLEASANT NOTE. THE DRY
AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NW FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO FLAT SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL MODERATE
RATHER QUICKLY TOWARD MIDWEEK DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OFF THE ROCKPILE.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 291534
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1034 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
THE ONLY REAL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FROM YESTERDAY HAS BEEN A
LITTLE PATCHY FOG IN SPOTS THIS MORNING. THIS HAS SLOWED THE
MORNING WARM-UP A BIT IN THOSE AREAS BUT THEY WILL RECOVER
QUICKLY NOW THAT ALL FOG HAS DISSIPATED. OTHERWISE... TODAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MUCH LIKE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND THE FORECAST
HAS THIS HANDLED. NO UPDATE WILL BE NECESSARY THIS MORNING.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONCE AGAIN...MVFR VISIBILITY WILL PERSIST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AT
KBVO/KRVS/KFYV/KXNA...WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OTHERWISE WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR VISIBILITY AGAIN AT
SAM LOCATIONS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THERE WERE NO MAJOR SURPRISES IN THE DATA THIS MORNING. RIDGING
ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW. THIS
LEAD SYSTEM WILL FORCE A BOUNDARY DOWN TO NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHERE IT WILL STALL WHILE WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL
OF THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM. STORMS MAY FIRE AS SOON AS LATE TUESDAY
ALONG THE DRYLINE OUT WEST AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY UP THRU CENTRAL
KS. THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY GRAZE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF TULSA TUESDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS
STORMS FORM ALONG STALLING BOUNDARY OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND GROW
UPSCALE WHILE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF
ALL SHOW THIS BASIC IDEA. THE BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE WITH
THIS LATE WEDNESDAY ACTIVITY...DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. LAPSE
RATES ALOFT AREN`T AS FAVORABLE FOR BIG HAIL. THE SHEAR IS ONLY
MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS...THUS MULTICELLS LOOK MORE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION TO THE FOCUSING
BOUNDARIES. THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY SURGE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE VERY PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIVES DOWN
INTO THE PLAINS. STORMS WILL PROBABLY FIRE ALONG IT AS WELL...WITH
LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...LEAVING
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND TO FOLLOW ON A VERY PLEASANT NOTE. THE DRY
AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NW FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO FLAT SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL MODERATE
RATHER QUICKLY TOWARD MIDWEEK DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OFF THE ROCKPILE.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 291534
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1034 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
THE ONLY REAL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FROM YESTERDAY HAS BEEN A
LITTLE PATCHY FOG IN SPOTS THIS MORNING. THIS HAS SLOWED THE
MORNING WARM-UP A BIT IN THOSE AREAS BUT THEY WILL RECOVER
QUICKLY NOW THAT ALL FOG HAS DISSIPATED. OTHERWISE... TODAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MUCH LIKE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND THE FORECAST
HAS THIS HANDLED. NO UPDATE WILL BE NECESSARY THIS MORNING.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONCE AGAIN...MVFR VISIBILITY WILL PERSIST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AT
KBVO/KRVS/KFYV/KXNA...WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OTHERWISE WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR VISIBILITY AGAIN AT
SAM LOCATIONS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THERE WERE NO MAJOR SURPRISES IN THE DATA THIS MORNING. RIDGING
ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW. THIS
LEAD SYSTEM WILL FORCE A BOUNDARY DOWN TO NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHERE IT WILL STALL WHILE WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL
OF THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM. STORMS MAY FIRE AS SOON AS LATE TUESDAY
ALONG THE DRYLINE OUT WEST AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY UP THRU CENTRAL
KS. THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY GRAZE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF TULSA TUESDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS
STORMS FORM ALONG STALLING BOUNDARY OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND GROW
UPSCALE WHILE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF
ALL SHOW THIS BASIC IDEA. THE BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE WITH
THIS LATE WEDNESDAY ACTIVITY...DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. LAPSE
RATES ALOFT AREN`T AS FAVORABLE FOR BIG HAIL. THE SHEAR IS ONLY
MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS...THUS MULTICELLS LOOK MORE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION TO THE FOCUSING
BOUNDARIES. THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY SURGE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE VERY PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIVES DOWN
INTO THE PLAINS. STORMS WILL PROBABLY FIRE ALONG IT AS WELL...WITH
LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...LEAVING
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND TO FOLLOW ON A VERY PLEASANT NOTE. THE DRY
AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NW FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO FLAT SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL MODERATE
RATHER QUICKLY TOWARD MIDWEEK DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OFF THE ROCKPILE.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 291534
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1034 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
THE ONLY REAL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FROM YESTERDAY HAS BEEN A
LITTLE PATCHY FOG IN SPOTS THIS MORNING. THIS HAS SLOWED THE
MORNING WARM-UP A BIT IN THOSE AREAS BUT THEY WILL RECOVER
QUICKLY NOW THAT ALL FOG HAS DISSIPATED. OTHERWISE... TODAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MUCH LIKE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND THE FORECAST
HAS THIS HANDLED. NO UPDATE WILL BE NECESSARY THIS MORNING.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONCE AGAIN...MVFR VISIBILITY WILL PERSIST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AT
KBVO/KRVS/KFYV/KXNA...WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OTHERWISE WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR VISIBILITY AGAIN AT
SAM LOCATIONS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THERE WERE NO MAJOR SURPRISES IN THE DATA THIS MORNING. RIDGING
ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW. THIS
LEAD SYSTEM WILL FORCE A BOUNDARY DOWN TO NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHERE IT WILL STALL WHILE WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL
OF THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM. STORMS MAY FIRE AS SOON AS LATE TUESDAY
ALONG THE DRYLINE OUT WEST AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY UP THRU CENTRAL
KS. THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY GRAZE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF TULSA TUESDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS
STORMS FORM ALONG STALLING BOUNDARY OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND GROW
UPSCALE WHILE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF
ALL SHOW THIS BASIC IDEA. THE BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE WITH
THIS LATE WEDNESDAY ACTIVITY...DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. LAPSE
RATES ALOFT AREN`T AS FAVORABLE FOR BIG HAIL. THE SHEAR IS ONLY
MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS...THUS MULTICELLS LOOK MORE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION TO THE FOCUSING
BOUNDARIES. THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY SURGE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE VERY PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIVES DOWN
INTO THE PLAINS. STORMS WILL PROBABLY FIRE ALONG IT AS WELL...WITH
LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...LEAVING
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND TO FOLLOW ON A VERY PLEASANT NOTE. THE DRY
AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NW FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO FLAT SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL MODERATE
RATHER QUICKLY TOWARD MIDWEEK DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OFF THE ROCKPILE.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 291056
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
556 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONCE AGAIN...MVFR VISIBILITY WILL PERSIST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AT
KBVO/KRVS/KFYV/KXNA...WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OTHERWISE WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR VISIBILITY AGAIN AT
SAM LOCATIONS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THERE WERE NO MAJOR SURPRISES IN THE DATA THIS MORNING. RIDGING
ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW. THIS
LEAD SYSTEM WILL FORCE A BOUNDARY DOWN TO NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHERE IT WILL STALL WHILE WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL
OF THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM. STORMS MAY FIRE AS SOON AS LATE TUESDAY
ALONG THE DRYLINE OUT WEST AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY UP THRU CENTRAL
KS. THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY GRAZE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF TULSA TUESDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS
STORMS FORM ALONG STALLING BOUNDARY OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND GROW
UPSCALE WHILE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF
ALL SHOW THIS BASIC IDEA. THE BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE WITH
THIS LATE WEDNESDAY ACTIVITY...DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. LAPSE
RATES ALOFT AREN`T AS FAVORABLE FOR BIG HAIL. THE SHEAR IS ONLY
MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS...THUS MULTICELLS LOOK MORE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION TO THE FOCUSING
BOUNDARIES. THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY SURGE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE VERY PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIVES DOWN
INTO THE PLAINS. STORMS WILL PROBABLY FIRE ALONG IT AS WELL...WITH
LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...LEAVING
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND TO FOLLOW ON A VERY PLEASANT NOTE. THE DRY
AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NW FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO FLAT SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL MODERATE
RATHER QUICKLY TOWARD MIDWEEK DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OFF THE ROCKPILE.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...14









000
FXUS64 KTSA 291056
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
556 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONCE AGAIN...MVFR VISIBILITY WILL PERSIST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AT
KBVO/KRVS/KFYV/KXNA...WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OTHERWISE WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR VISIBILITY AGAIN AT
SAM LOCATIONS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THERE WERE NO MAJOR SURPRISES IN THE DATA THIS MORNING. RIDGING
ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW. THIS
LEAD SYSTEM WILL FORCE A BOUNDARY DOWN TO NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHERE IT WILL STALL WHILE WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL
OF THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM. STORMS MAY FIRE AS SOON AS LATE TUESDAY
ALONG THE DRYLINE OUT WEST AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY UP THRU CENTRAL
KS. THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY GRAZE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF TULSA TUESDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS
STORMS FORM ALONG STALLING BOUNDARY OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND GROW
UPSCALE WHILE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF
ALL SHOW THIS BASIC IDEA. THE BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE WITH
THIS LATE WEDNESDAY ACTIVITY...DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. LAPSE
RATES ALOFT AREN`T AS FAVORABLE FOR BIG HAIL. THE SHEAR IS ONLY
MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS...THUS MULTICELLS LOOK MORE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION TO THE FOCUSING
BOUNDARIES. THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY SURGE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE VERY PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIVES DOWN
INTO THE PLAINS. STORMS WILL PROBABLY FIRE ALONG IT AS WELL...WITH
LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...LEAVING
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND TO FOLLOW ON A VERY PLEASANT NOTE. THE DRY
AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NW FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO FLAT SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL MODERATE
RATHER QUICKLY TOWARD MIDWEEK DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OFF THE ROCKPILE.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...14









000
FXUS64 KTSA 291056
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
556 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONCE AGAIN...MVFR VISIBILITY WILL PERSIST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AT
KBVO/KRVS/KFYV/KXNA...WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OTHERWISE WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR VISIBILITY AGAIN AT
SAM LOCATIONS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THERE WERE NO MAJOR SURPRISES IN THE DATA THIS MORNING. RIDGING
ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW. THIS
LEAD SYSTEM WILL FORCE A BOUNDARY DOWN TO NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHERE IT WILL STALL WHILE WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL
OF THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM. STORMS MAY FIRE AS SOON AS LATE TUESDAY
ALONG THE DRYLINE OUT WEST AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY UP THRU CENTRAL
KS. THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY GRAZE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF TULSA TUESDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS
STORMS FORM ALONG STALLING BOUNDARY OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND GROW
UPSCALE WHILE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF
ALL SHOW THIS BASIC IDEA. THE BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE WITH
THIS LATE WEDNESDAY ACTIVITY...DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. LAPSE
RATES ALOFT AREN`T AS FAVORABLE FOR BIG HAIL. THE SHEAR IS ONLY
MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS...THUS MULTICELLS LOOK MORE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION TO THE FOCUSING
BOUNDARIES. THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY SURGE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE VERY PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIVES DOWN
INTO THE PLAINS. STORMS WILL PROBABLY FIRE ALONG IT AS WELL...WITH
LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...LEAVING
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND TO FOLLOW ON A VERY PLEASANT NOTE. THE DRY
AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NW FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO FLAT SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL MODERATE
RATHER QUICKLY TOWARD MIDWEEK DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OFF THE ROCKPILE.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...14









000
FXUS64 KTSA 291056
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
556 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONCE AGAIN...MVFR VISIBILITY WILL PERSIST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AT
KBVO/KRVS/KFYV/KXNA...WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OTHERWISE WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR VISIBILITY AGAIN AT
SAM LOCATIONS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THERE WERE NO MAJOR SURPRISES IN THE DATA THIS MORNING. RIDGING
ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW. THIS
LEAD SYSTEM WILL FORCE A BOUNDARY DOWN TO NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHERE IT WILL STALL WHILE WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL
OF THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM. STORMS MAY FIRE AS SOON AS LATE TUESDAY
ALONG THE DRYLINE OUT WEST AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY UP THRU CENTRAL
KS. THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY GRAZE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF TULSA TUESDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS
STORMS FORM ALONG STALLING BOUNDARY OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND GROW
UPSCALE WHILE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF
ALL SHOW THIS BASIC IDEA. THE BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE WITH
THIS LATE WEDNESDAY ACTIVITY...DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. LAPSE
RATES ALOFT AREN`T AS FAVORABLE FOR BIG HAIL. THE SHEAR IS ONLY
MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS...THUS MULTICELLS LOOK MORE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION TO THE FOCUSING
BOUNDARIES. THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY SURGE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE VERY PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIVES DOWN
INTO THE PLAINS. STORMS WILL PROBABLY FIRE ALONG IT AS WELL...WITH
LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...LEAVING
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND TO FOLLOW ON A VERY PLEASANT NOTE. THE DRY
AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NW FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO FLAT SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL MODERATE
RATHER QUICKLY TOWARD MIDWEEK DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OFF THE ROCKPILE.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...14









000
FXUS64 KOUN 290844
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
344 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN WILL BEGIN TO OPEN UP
AND SHIFT EAST LATER TODAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS THERE WILL BE A LOW
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

SEVERAL WAVES WILL THEN MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS
IN THE TUE-THU TIME FRAME. THIS WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
REMAINDER OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. BEST CHANCE STILL
APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BRING BETTER MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
THE AREA BY MID-WEEK AND THIS MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
RATHER QUICKLY AS WE GET INTO THURSDAY... BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS
MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE.... MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PRECIP
SHOULD END THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF COOL DOWN FOR FRIDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER WARMING TREND COMMENCES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  86  63  88  67 /   0  10  10  30
HOBART OK         86  63  88  67 /   0  10  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  88  64  91  69 /   0  10  10  20
GAGE OK           85  61  85  60 /   0  30  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     86  62  86  65 /   0  10  10  50
DURANT OK         87  64  88  68 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/30




000
FXUS64 KOUN 290844
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
344 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN WILL BEGIN TO OPEN UP
AND SHIFT EAST LATER TODAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS THERE WILL BE A LOW
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

SEVERAL WAVES WILL THEN MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS
IN THE TUE-THU TIME FRAME. THIS WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
REMAINDER OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. BEST CHANCE STILL
APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BRING BETTER MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
THE AREA BY MID-WEEK AND THIS MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
RATHER QUICKLY AS WE GET INTO THURSDAY... BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS
MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE.... MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PRECIP
SHOULD END THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF COOL DOWN FOR FRIDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER WARMING TREND COMMENCES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  86  63  88  67 /   0  10  10  30
HOBART OK         86  63  88  67 /   0  10  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  88  64  91  69 /   0  10  10  20
GAGE OK           85  61  85  60 /   0  30  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     86  62  86  65 /   0  10  10  50
DURANT OK         87  64  88  68 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/30




000
FXUS64 KOUN 290844
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
344 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN WILL BEGIN TO OPEN UP
AND SHIFT EAST LATER TODAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS THERE WILL BE A LOW
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

SEVERAL WAVES WILL THEN MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS
IN THE TUE-THU TIME FRAME. THIS WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
REMAINDER OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. BEST CHANCE STILL
APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BRING BETTER MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
THE AREA BY MID-WEEK AND THIS MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
RATHER QUICKLY AS WE GET INTO THURSDAY... BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS
MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE.... MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PRECIP
SHOULD END THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF COOL DOWN FOR FRIDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER WARMING TREND COMMENCES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  86  63  88  67 /   0  10  10  30
HOBART OK         86  63  88  67 /   0  10  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  88  64  91  69 /   0  10  10  20
GAGE OK           85  61  85  60 /   0  30  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     86  62  86  65 /   0  10  10  50
DURANT OK         87  64  88  68 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/30




000
FXUS64 KOUN 290844
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
344 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN WILL BEGIN TO OPEN UP
AND SHIFT EAST LATER TODAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS THERE WILL BE A LOW
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

SEVERAL WAVES WILL THEN MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS
IN THE TUE-THU TIME FRAME. THIS WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
REMAINDER OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. BEST CHANCE STILL
APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BRING BETTER MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
THE AREA BY MID-WEEK AND THIS MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
RATHER QUICKLY AS WE GET INTO THURSDAY... BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS
MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE.... MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PRECIP
SHOULD END THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF COOL DOWN FOR FRIDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER WARMING TREND COMMENCES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  86  63  88  67 /   0  10  10  30
HOBART OK         86  63  88  67 /   0  10  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  88  64  91  69 /   0  10  10  20
GAGE OK           85  61  85  60 /   0  30  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     86  62  86  65 /   0  10  10  50
DURANT OK         87  64  88  68 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 290841 CCA
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
338 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THERE WERE NO MAJOR SURPRISES IN THE DATA THIS MORNING. RIDGING
ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW. THIS
LEAD SYSTEM WILL FORCE A BOUNDARY DOWN TO NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHERE IT WILL STALL WHILE WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL
OF THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM. STORMS MAY FIRE AS SOON AS LATE TUESDAY
ALONG THE DRYLINE OUT WEST AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY UP THRU CENTRAL
KS. THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY GRAZE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF TULSA TUESDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS
STORMS FORM ALONG STALLING BOUNDARY OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND GROW
UPSCALE WHILE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF
ALL SHOW THIS BASIC IDEA. THE BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE WITH
THIS LATE WEDNESDAY ACTIVITY...DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. LAPSE
RATES ALOFT AREN`T AS FAVORABLE FOR BIG HAIL. THE SHEAR IS ONLY
MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS...THUS MULTICELLS LOOK MORE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION TO THE FOCUSING
BOUNDARIES. THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY SURGE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE VERY PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIVES DOWN
INTO THE PLAINS. STORMS WILL PROBABLY FIRE ALONG IT AS WELL...WITH
LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...LEAVING
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND TO FOLLOW ON A VERY PLEASANT NOTE. THE DRY
AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NW FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO FLAT SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL MODERATE
RATHER QUICKLY TOWARD MIDWEEK DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OFF THE ROCKPILE.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  64  87  68 /   0   0  10  30
FSM   86  62  86  66 /   0   0  10  10
MLC   87  63  87  68 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   86  58  86  63 /   0   0  10  50
FYV   83  56  82  60 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   83  58  83  62 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   86  61  85  66 /   0   0  10  20
MIO   84  61  85  64 /   0   0  10  20
F10   86  62  86  67 /   0   0   0  20
HHW   85  64  86  68 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30








000
FXUS64 KTSA 290841 CCA
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
338 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THERE WERE NO MAJOR SURPRISES IN THE DATA THIS MORNING. RIDGING
ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW. THIS
LEAD SYSTEM WILL FORCE A BOUNDARY DOWN TO NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHERE IT WILL STALL WHILE WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL
OF THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM. STORMS MAY FIRE AS SOON AS LATE TUESDAY
ALONG THE DRYLINE OUT WEST AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY UP THRU CENTRAL
KS. THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY GRAZE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF TULSA TUESDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS
STORMS FORM ALONG STALLING BOUNDARY OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND GROW
UPSCALE WHILE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF
ALL SHOW THIS BASIC IDEA. THE BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE WITH
THIS LATE WEDNESDAY ACTIVITY...DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. LAPSE
RATES ALOFT AREN`T AS FAVORABLE FOR BIG HAIL. THE SHEAR IS ONLY
MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS...THUS MULTICELLS LOOK MORE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION TO THE FOCUSING
BOUNDARIES. THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY SURGE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE VERY PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIVES DOWN
INTO THE PLAINS. STORMS WILL PROBABLY FIRE ALONG IT AS WELL...WITH
LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...LEAVING
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND TO FOLLOW ON A VERY PLEASANT NOTE. THE DRY
AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NW FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO FLAT SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL MODERATE
RATHER QUICKLY TOWARD MIDWEEK DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OFF THE ROCKPILE.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  64  87  68 /   0   0  10  30
FSM   86  62  86  66 /   0   0  10  10
MLC   87  63  87  68 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   86  58  86  63 /   0   0  10  50
FYV   83  56  82  60 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   83  58  83  62 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   86  61  85  66 /   0   0  10  20
MIO   84  61  85  64 /   0   0  10  20
F10   86  62  86  67 /   0   0   0  20
HHW   85  64  86  68 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30








000
FXUS64 KTSA 290841 CCA
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
338 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THERE WERE NO MAJOR SURPRISES IN THE DATA THIS MORNING. RIDGING
ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW. THIS
LEAD SYSTEM WILL FORCE A BOUNDARY DOWN TO NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHERE IT WILL STALL WHILE WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL
OF THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM. STORMS MAY FIRE AS SOON AS LATE TUESDAY
ALONG THE DRYLINE OUT WEST AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY UP THRU CENTRAL
KS. THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY GRAZE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF TULSA TUESDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS
STORMS FORM ALONG STALLING BOUNDARY OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND GROW
UPSCALE WHILE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF
ALL SHOW THIS BASIC IDEA. THE BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE WITH
THIS LATE WEDNESDAY ACTIVITY...DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. LAPSE
RATES ALOFT AREN`T AS FAVORABLE FOR BIG HAIL. THE SHEAR IS ONLY
MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS...THUS MULTICELLS LOOK MORE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION TO THE FOCUSING
BOUNDARIES. THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY SURGE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE VERY PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIVES DOWN
INTO THE PLAINS. STORMS WILL PROBABLY FIRE ALONG IT AS WELL...WITH
LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...LEAVING
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND TO FOLLOW ON A VERY PLEASANT NOTE. THE DRY
AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NW FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO FLAT SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL MODERATE
RATHER QUICKLY TOWARD MIDWEEK DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OFF THE ROCKPILE.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  64  87  68 /   0   0  10  30
FSM   86  62  86  66 /   0   0  10  10
MLC   87  63  87  68 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   86  58  86  63 /   0   0  10  50
FYV   83  56  82  60 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   83  58  83  62 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   86  61  85  66 /   0   0  10  20
MIO   84  61  85  64 /   0   0  10  20
F10   86  62  86  67 /   0   0   0  20
HHW   85  64  86  68 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30








000
FXUS64 KTSA 290841 CCA
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
338 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THERE WERE NO MAJOR SURPRISES IN THE DATA THIS MORNING. RIDGING
ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW. THIS
LEAD SYSTEM WILL FORCE A BOUNDARY DOWN TO NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHERE IT WILL STALL WHILE WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL
OF THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM. STORMS MAY FIRE AS SOON AS LATE TUESDAY
ALONG THE DRYLINE OUT WEST AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY UP THRU CENTRAL
KS. THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY GRAZE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF TULSA TUESDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS
STORMS FORM ALONG STALLING BOUNDARY OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND GROW
UPSCALE WHILE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF
ALL SHOW THIS BASIC IDEA. THE BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE WITH
THIS LATE WEDNESDAY ACTIVITY...DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. LAPSE
RATES ALOFT AREN`T AS FAVORABLE FOR BIG HAIL. THE SHEAR IS ONLY
MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS...THUS MULTICELLS LOOK MORE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION TO THE FOCUSING
BOUNDARIES. THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY SURGE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE VERY PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIVES DOWN
INTO THE PLAINS. STORMS WILL PROBABLY FIRE ALONG IT AS WELL...WITH
LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...LEAVING
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND TO FOLLOW ON A VERY PLEASANT NOTE. THE DRY
AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NW FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO FLAT SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL MODERATE
RATHER QUICKLY TOWARD MIDWEEK DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OFF THE ROCKPILE.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  64  87  68 /   0   0  10  30
FSM   86  62  86  66 /   0   0  10  10
MLC   87  63  87  68 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   86  58  86  63 /   0   0  10  50
FYV   83  56  82  60 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   83  58  83  62 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   86  61  85  66 /   0   0  10  20
MIO   84  61  85  64 /   0   0  10  20
F10   86  62  86  67 /   0   0   0  20
HHW   85  64  86  68 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30








000
FXUS64 KTSA 290838
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
338 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THERE WERE NO MAJOR SURPRISES IN THE DATA THIS MORNING. RIDGING
ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW. THIS
LEAD SYSTEM WILL FORCE A BOUNDARY DOWN TO NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHERE IT WILL STALL WHILE WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL
OF THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM. STORMS MAY FIRE AS SOON AS LATE TUESDAY
ALONG THE DRYLINE OUT WEST AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY UP THRU CENTRAL
KS. THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY GRAZE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF TULSA TUESDAY
NIGHT. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AS STORMS FORM ALONG STALLING BOUNDARY OR PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND GROW UPSCALE WHILE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION.
THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SHOW THIS BASIC IDEA. THE BEST SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL BE WITH THIS LATE WEDNESDAY ACTIVITY...DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. THE SHEAR IS ONLY MARGINAL FOR
SUPERCELLS...SO MULTICELLS LOOK MORE LIKELY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
FINALLY SURGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE VERY
PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIVES DOWN INTO THE PLAINS. STORMS
WILL PROBABLY FIRE ALONG IT AS WELL...WITH LIMITED SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...LEAVING
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND TO FOLLOW ON A VERY PLEASANT NOTE. THE DRY
AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NW FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO FLAT SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL MODERATE
RATHER QUICKLY TOWARD MIDWEEK DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OFF THE ROCKPILE.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  64  87  68 /   0   0  10  30
FSM   86  62  86  66 /   0   0  10  10
MLC   87  63  87  68 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   86  58  86  63 /   0   0  10  50
FYV   83  56  82  60 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   83  58  83  62 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   86  61  85  66 /   0   0  10  20
MIO   84  61  85  64 /   0   0  10  20
F10   86  62  86  67 /   0   0   0  20
HHW   85  64  86  68 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 290838
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
338 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THERE WERE NO MAJOR SURPRISES IN THE DATA THIS MORNING. RIDGING
ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW. THIS
LEAD SYSTEM WILL FORCE A BOUNDARY DOWN TO NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHERE IT WILL STALL WHILE WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL
OF THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM. STORMS MAY FIRE AS SOON AS LATE TUESDAY
ALONG THE DRYLINE OUT WEST AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY UP THRU CENTRAL
KS. THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY GRAZE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF TULSA TUESDAY
NIGHT. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AS STORMS FORM ALONG STALLING BOUNDARY OR PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND GROW UPSCALE WHILE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION.
THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SHOW THIS BASIC IDEA. THE BEST SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL BE WITH THIS LATE WEDNESDAY ACTIVITY...DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. THE SHEAR IS ONLY MARGINAL FOR
SUPERCELLS...SO MULTICELLS LOOK MORE LIKELY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
FINALLY SURGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE VERY
PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIVES DOWN INTO THE PLAINS. STORMS
WILL PROBABLY FIRE ALONG IT AS WELL...WITH LIMITED SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...LEAVING
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND TO FOLLOW ON A VERY PLEASANT NOTE. THE DRY
AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NW FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO FLAT SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL MODERATE
RATHER QUICKLY TOWARD MIDWEEK DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OFF THE ROCKPILE.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  64  87  68 /   0   0  10  30
FSM   86  62  86  66 /   0   0  10  10
MLC   87  63  87  68 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   86  58  86  63 /   0   0  10  50
FYV   83  56  82  60 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   83  58  83  62 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   86  61  85  66 /   0   0  10  20
MIO   84  61  85  64 /   0   0  10  20
F10   86  62  86  67 /   0   0   0  20
HHW   85  64  86  68 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 290838
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
338 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THERE WERE NO MAJOR SURPRISES IN THE DATA THIS MORNING. RIDGING
ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW. THIS
LEAD SYSTEM WILL FORCE A BOUNDARY DOWN TO NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHERE IT WILL STALL WHILE WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL
OF THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM. STORMS MAY FIRE AS SOON AS LATE TUESDAY
ALONG THE DRYLINE OUT WEST AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY UP THRU CENTRAL
KS. THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY GRAZE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF TULSA TUESDAY
NIGHT. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AS STORMS FORM ALONG STALLING BOUNDARY OR PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND GROW UPSCALE WHILE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION.
THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SHOW THIS BASIC IDEA. THE BEST SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL BE WITH THIS LATE WEDNESDAY ACTIVITY...DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. THE SHEAR IS ONLY MARGINAL FOR
SUPERCELLS...SO MULTICELLS LOOK MORE LIKELY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
FINALLY SURGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE VERY
PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIVES DOWN INTO THE PLAINS. STORMS
WILL PROBABLY FIRE ALONG IT AS WELL...WITH LIMITED SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...LEAVING
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND TO FOLLOW ON A VERY PLEASANT NOTE. THE DRY
AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NW FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO FLAT SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL MODERATE
RATHER QUICKLY TOWARD MIDWEEK DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OFF THE ROCKPILE.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  64  87  68 /   0   0  10  30
FSM   86  62  86  66 /   0   0  10  10
MLC   87  63  87  68 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   86  58  86  63 /   0   0  10  50
FYV   83  56  82  60 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   83  58  83  62 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   86  61  85  66 /   0   0  10  20
MIO   84  61  85  64 /   0   0  10  20
F10   86  62  86  67 /   0   0   0  20
HHW   85  64  86  68 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 290838
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
338 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THERE WERE NO MAJOR SURPRISES IN THE DATA THIS MORNING. RIDGING
ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW. THIS
LEAD SYSTEM WILL FORCE A BOUNDARY DOWN TO NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHERE IT WILL STALL WHILE WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL
OF THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM. STORMS MAY FIRE AS SOON AS LATE TUESDAY
ALONG THE DRYLINE OUT WEST AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY UP THRU CENTRAL
KS. THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY GRAZE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF TULSA TUESDAY
NIGHT. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AS STORMS FORM ALONG STALLING BOUNDARY OR PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND GROW UPSCALE WHILE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION.
THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SHOW THIS BASIC IDEA. THE BEST SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL BE WITH THIS LATE WEDNESDAY ACTIVITY...DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. THE SHEAR IS ONLY MARGINAL FOR
SUPERCELLS...SO MULTICELLS LOOK MORE LIKELY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
FINALLY SURGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE VERY
PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIVES DOWN INTO THE PLAINS. STORMS
WILL PROBABLY FIRE ALONG IT AS WELL...WITH LIMITED SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...LEAVING
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND TO FOLLOW ON A VERY PLEASANT NOTE. THE DRY
AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NW FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO FLAT SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL MODERATE
RATHER QUICKLY TOWARD MIDWEEK DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OFF THE ROCKPILE.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  64  87  68 /   0   0  10  30
FSM   86  62  86  66 /   0   0  10  10
MLC   87  63  87  68 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   86  58  86  63 /   0   0  10  50
FYV   83  56  82  60 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   83  58  83  62 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   86  61  85  66 /   0   0  10  20
MIO   84  61  85  64 /   0   0  10  20
F10   86  62  86  67 /   0   0   0  20
HHW   85  64  86  68 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 290451
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1151 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SOME PATCHY AREAS OF MVFR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY MORNING OVER PARTS OF THE REGION...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN COMMON TONIGHT. DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND A FEW/SCATTERED MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECK ARE FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
TEMP / DEWPOINT 24 HOUR TRENDS ARE RUNNING APPROXIMATELY 2-4
DEGREES HIGHER AT MOST LOCATIONS. WHILE THERE WILL BE LOCALIZED
EXCEPTIONS...MOST PLACES WILL SEE A CONTINUED TREND OF MORE MILD
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST. UPDATE
WILL ADJUST FOR TRENDS AND ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AT
TYPICALLY COLDER OBSERVATIONS SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  86  63  87 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   63  86  61  87 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   61  86  62  87 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   55  85  59  86 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   56  82  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   57  82  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   60  85  60  85 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   60  83  61  85 /   0   0   0  10
F10   61  85  62  86 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   62  86  63  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20






000
FXUS64 KTSA 290451
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1151 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SOME PATCHY AREAS OF MVFR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY MORNING OVER PARTS OF THE REGION...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN COMMON TONIGHT. DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND A FEW/SCATTERED MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECK ARE FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
TEMP / DEWPOINT 24 HOUR TRENDS ARE RUNNING APPROXIMATELY 2-4
DEGREES HIGHER AT MOST LOCATIONS. WHILE THERE WILL BE LOCALIZED
EXCEPTIONS...MOST PLACES WILL SEE A CONTINUED TREND OF MORE MILD
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST. UPDATE
WILL ADJUST FOR TRENDS AND ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AT
TYPICALLY COLDER OBSERVATIONS SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  86  63  87 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   63  86  61  87 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   61  86  62  87 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   55  85  59  86 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   56  82  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   57  82  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   60  85  60  85 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   60  83  61  85 /   0   0   0  10
F10   61  85  62  86 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   62  86  63  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20





000
FXUS64 KOUN 290335
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1035 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WIND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WIND.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT. ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY EXPECTED MONDAY BEFORE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA.

LEAD S/W TROUGH EJECTS NEWD FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRAL/NRN
PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY NW OKLAHOMA. SURFACE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SLOWLY INCREASING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS EAST OF THIS
FEATURE. MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER S/W TROUGH EJECTS
EWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. SHEAR WILL BE
FAVORABLE AND INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A STRONGER WAVE DROPS SEWD
THROUGH THE PLAINS DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.

DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  63  87  64  88 /  10   0  10  10
HOBART OK         61  87  64  88 /  10   0  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  64  89  65  91 /  10   0  10  10
GAGE OK           57  85  61  86 /  10   0  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     60  86  63  87 /  10   0  10  20
DURANT OK         64  87  64  89 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/09/09



000
FXUS64 KOUN 290335
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1035 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WIND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WIND.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT. ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY EXPECTED MONDAY BEFORE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA.

LEAD S/W TROUGH EJECTS NEWD FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRAL/NRN
PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY NW OKLAHOMA. SURFACE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SLOWLY INCREASING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS EAST OF THIS
FEATURE. MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER S/W TROUGH EJECTS
EWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. SHEAR WILL BE
FAVORABLE AND INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A STRONGER WAVE DROPS SEWD
THROUGH THE PLAINS DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.

DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  63  87  64  88 /  10   0  10  10
HOBART OK         61  87  64  88 /  10   0  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  64  89  65  91 /  10   0  10  10
GAGE OK           57  85  61  86 /  10   0  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     60  86  63  87 /  10   0  10  20
DURANT OK         64  87  64  89 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/09/09




000
FXUS64 KTSA 290213
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
913 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
TEMP / DEWPOINT 24 HOUR TRENDS ARE RUNNING APPROXIMATELY 2-4
DEGREES HIGHER AT MOST LOCATIONS. WHILE THERE WILL BE LOCALIZED
EXCEPTIONS...MOST PLACES WILL SEE A CONTINUED TREND OF MORE MILD
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST. UPDATE
WILL ADJUST FOR TRENDS AND ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AT
TYPICALLY COLDER OBSERVATIONS SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  86  63  87 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   63  86  61  87 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   61  86  62  87 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   55  85  59  86 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   56  82  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   57  82  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   60  85  60  85 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   60  83  61  85 /   0   0   0  10
F10   61  85  62  86 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   62  86  63  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07







000
FXUS64 KOUN 282346
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
646 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WIND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT. ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY EXPECTED MONDAY BEFORE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA.

LEAD S/W TROUGH EJECTS NEWD FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRAL/NRN
PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY NW OKLAHOMA. SURFACE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SLOWLY INCREASING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS EAST OF THIS
FEATURE. MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER S/W TROUGH EJECTS
EWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. SHEAR WILL BE
FAVORABLE AND INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A STRONGER WAVE DROPS SEWD
THROUGH THE PLAINS DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.

DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  63  87  64  88 /  10   0  10  10
HOBART OK         61  87  64  88 /  10   0  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  64  89  65  91 /  10   0  10  10
GAGE OK           57  85  61  86 /  10   0  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     60  86  63  87 /  10   0  10  20
DURANT OK         64  87  64  89 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/09/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 282346
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
646 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WIND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT. ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY EXPECTED MONDAY BEFORE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA.

LEAD S/W TROUGH EJECTS NEWD FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRAL/NRN
PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY NW OKLAHOMA. SURFACE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SLOWLY INCREASING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS EAST OF THIS
FEATURE. MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER S/W TROUGH EJECTS
EWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. SHEAR WILL BE
FAVORABLE AND INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A STRONGER WAVE DROPS SEWD
THROUGH THE PLAINS DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.

DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  63  87  64  88 /  10   0  10  10
HOBART OK         61  87  64  88 /  10   0  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  64  89  65  91 /  10   0  10  10
GAGE OK           57  85  61  86 /  10   0  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     60  86  63  87 /  10   0  10  20
DURANT OK         64  87  64  89 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/09/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 282346
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
646 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WIND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT. ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY EXPECTED MONDAY BEFORE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA.

LEAD S/W TROUGH EJECTS NEWD FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRAL/NRN
PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY NW OKLAHOMA. SURFACE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SLOWLY INCREASING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS EAST OF THIS
FEATURE. MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER S/W TROUGH EJECTS
EWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. SHEAR WILL BE
FAVORABLE AND INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A STRONGER WAVE DROPS SEWD
THROUGH THE PLAINS DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.

DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  63  87  64  88 /  10   0  10  10
HOBART OK         61  87  64  88 /  10   0  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  64  89  65  91 /  10   0  10  10
GAGE OK           57  85  61  86 /  10   0  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     60  86  63  87 /  10   0  10  20
DURANT OK         64  87  64  89 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/09/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 282346
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
646 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WIND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT. ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY EXPECTED MONDAY BEFORE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA.

LEAD S/W TROUGH EJECTS NEWD FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRAL/NRN
PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY NW OKLAHOMA. SURFACE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SLOWLY INCREASING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS EAST OF THIS
FEATURE. MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER S/W TROUGH EJECTS
EWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. SHEAR WILL BE
FAVORABLE AND INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A STRONGER WAVE DROPS SEWD
THROUGH THE PLAINS DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.

DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  63  87  64  88 /  10   0  10  10
HOBART OK         61  87  64  88 /  10   0  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  64  89  65  91 /  10   0  10  10
GAGE OK           57  85  61  86 /  10   0  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     60  86  63  87 /  10   0  10  20
DURANT OK         64  87  64  89 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/09/09




000
FXUS64 KTSA 282332
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
632 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY MORNING SOME PATCHY AREAS OF MVFR VIS MAY BE
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN OVER PARTS OF THE REGION BUT SHOULD QUICKLY
LIFT BACK TO VFR BY MID MORNING MONDAY. EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
AND A FEW TO SCATTERED MID CLOUDS SHOULD BE COMMON DURING THE DAY
MONDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK IS GOING TO FEEL A LOT
LIKE THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...FEATURING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL
INCH UPWARD A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THIS WEEKENDS VALUES.

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44...AS A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET
SETS UP OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH DEW POINTS LIKELY TO
BE IN AT LEAST THE MID 60S ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY...AND ALONG IT...ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...VERY NEAR THE KANSAS AND
MISSOURI BORDERS. SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST...WITH BOTH
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL/WIND. GREATER
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS
THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS...AND A FINAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION.

MUCH COOLER WEATHER AND ANOTHER MULTI DAY RAIN FREE PERIOD WILL
MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TO
CLOSE THE WORK WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  86  63  87 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   63  86  61  87 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   61  86  62  87 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   57  85  59  86 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   56  82  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   57  82  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   60  85  60  85 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   60  83  61  85 /   0   0   0  10
F10   61  85  62  86 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   62  86  63  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20





000
FXUS64 KTSA 282332
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
632 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY MORNING SOME PATCHY AREAS OF MVFR VIS MAY BE
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN OVER PARTS OF THE REGION BUT SHOULD QUICKLY
LIFT BACK TO VFR BY MID MORNING MONDAY. EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
AND A FEW TO SCATTERED MID CLOUDS SHOULD BE COMMON DURING THE DAY
MONDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK IS GOING TO FEEL A LOT
LIKE THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...FEATURING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL
INCH UPWARD A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THIS WEEKENDS VALUES.

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44...AS A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET
SETS UP OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH DEW POINTS LIKELY TO
BE IN AT LEAST THE MID 60S ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY...AND ALONG IT...ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...VERY NEAR THE KANSAS AND
MISSOURI BORDERS. SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST...WITH BOTH
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL/WIND. GREATER
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS
THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS...AND A FINAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION.

MUCH COOLER WEATHER AND ANOTHER MULTI DAY RAIN FREE PERIOD WILL
MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TO
CLOSE THE WORK WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  86  63  87 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   63  86  61  87 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   61  86  62  87 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   57  85  59  86 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   56  82  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   57  82  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   60  85  60  85 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   60  83  61  85 /   0   0   0  10
F10   61  85  62  86 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   62  86  63  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20






000
FXUS64 KTSA 282025
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
325 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK IS GOING TO FEEL A LOT
LIKE THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...FEATURING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL
INCH UPWARD A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THIS WEEKENDS VALUES.

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44...AS A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET
SETS UP OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH DEW POINTS LIKELY TO
BE IN AT LEAST THE MID 60S ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY...AND ALONG IT...ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...VERY NEAR THE KANSAS AND
MISSOURI BORDERS. SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST...WITH BOTH
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL/WIND. GREATER
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS
THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS...AND A FINAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION.

MUCH COOLER WEATHER AND ANOTHER MULTI DAY RAIN FREE PERIOD WILL
MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TO
CLOSE THE WORK WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  86  63  87 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   63  86  61  87 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   61  86  62  87 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   57  85  59  86 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   56  82  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   57  82  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   60  85  60  85 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   60  83  61  85 /   0   0   0  10
F10   61  85  62  86 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   62  86  63  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....22





000
FXUS64 KTSA 282025
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
325 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK IS GOING TO FEEL A LOT
LIKE THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...FEATURING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL
INCH UPWARD A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THIS WEEKENDS VALUES.

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44...AS A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET
SETS UP OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH DEW POINTS LIKELY TO
BE IN AT LEAST THE MID 60S ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY...AND ALONG IT...ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...VERY NEAR THE KANSAS AND
MISSOURI BORDERS. SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST...WITH BOTH
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL/WIND. GREATER
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS
THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS...AND A FINAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION.

MUCH COOLER WEATHER AND ANOTHER MULTI DAY RAIN FREE PERIOD WILL
MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TO
CLOSE THE WORK WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  86  63  87 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   63  86  61  87 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   61  86  62  87 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   57  85  59  86 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   56  82  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   57  82  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   60  85  60  85 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   60  83  61  85 /   0   0   0  10
F10   61  85  62  86 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   62  86  63  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KOUN 281921
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
221 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT. ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY EXPECTED MONDAY BEFORE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA.

LEAD S/W TROUGH EJECTS NEWD FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRAL/NRN
PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY NW OKLAHOMA. SURFACE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SLOWLY INCREASING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS EAST OF THIS
FEATURE. MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER S/W TROUGH EJECTS
EWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. SHEAR WILL BE
FAVORABLE AND INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A STRONGER WAVE DROPS SEWD
THROUGH THE PLAINS DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.

DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  63  87  64  88 /  10   0  10  10
HOBART OK         61  87  64  88 /  10   0  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  64  89  65  91 /  10   0  10  10
GAGE OK           57  85  61  86 /  10   0  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     60  86  63  87 /  10   0  10  20
DURANT OK         64  87  64  89 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/02



000
FXUS64 KOUN 281921
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
221 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT. ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY EXPECTED MONDAY BEFORE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA.

LEAD S/W TROUGH EJECTS NEWD FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRAL/NRN
PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY NW OKLAHOMA. SURFACE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SLOWLY INCREASING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS EAST OF THIS
FEATURE. MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER S/W TROUGH EJECTS
EWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. SHEAR WILL BE
FAVORABLE AND INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A STRONGER WAVE DROPS SEWD
THROUGH THE PLAINS DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.

DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  63  87  64  88 /  10   0  10  10
HOBART OK         61  87  64  88 /  10   0  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  64  89  65  91 /  10   0  10  10
GAGE OK           57  85  61  86 /  10   0  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     60  86  63  87 /  10   0  10  20
DURANT OK         64  87  64  89 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/02



000
FXUS64 KOUN 281921
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
221 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT. ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY EXPECTED MONDAY BEFORE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA.

LEAD S/W TROUGH EJECTS NEWD FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRAL/NRN
PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY NW OKLAHOMA. SURFACE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SLOWLY INCREASING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS EAST OF THIS
FEATURE. MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER S/W TROUGH EJECTS
EWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. SHEAR WILL BE
FAVORABLE AND INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A STRONGER WAVE DROPS SEWD
THROUGH THE PLAINS DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.

DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  63  87  64  88 /  10   0  10  10
HOBART OK         61  87  64  88 /  10   0  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  64  89  65  91 /  10   0  10  10
GAGE OK           57  85  61  86 /  10   0  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     60  86  63  87 /  10   0  10  20
DURANT OK         64  87  64  89 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/02



000
FXUS64 KOUN 281921
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
221 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT. ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY EXPECTED MONDAY BEFORE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA.

LEAD S/W TROUGH EJECTS NEWD FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRAL/NRN
PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY NW OKLAHOMA. SURFACE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SLOWLY INCREASING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS EAST OF THIS
FEATURE. MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER S/W TROUGH EJECTS
EWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. SHEAR WILL BE
FAVORABLE AND INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A STRONGER WAVE DROPS SEWD
THROUGH THE PLAINS DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.

DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  63  87  64  88 /  10   0  10  10
HOBART OK         61  87  64  88 /  10   0  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  64  89  65  91 /  10   0  10  10
GAGE OK           57  85  61  86 /  10   0  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     60  86  63  87 /  10   0  10  20
DURANT OK         64  87  64  89 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/02



000
FXUS64 KTSA 281728
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1228 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH
VISIBILITIES MAINLY AROUND 3-5SM. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
AFTER 14Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
GOING FORECAST IS IN REASONABLE SHAPE WITH
NO UPDATE PLANNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  87  64  86 /   0   0  10  10
FSM   63  87  62  86 /   0   0  10  10
MLC   61  86  62  85 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   56  86  59  86 /   0   0  10  20
FYV   55  83  55  82 /   0   0  10  10
BYV   58  82  57  81 /   0   0  10  10
MKO   61  86  61  85 /   0   0  10  10
MIO   60  83  61  84 /   0   0  10  10
F10   61  85  62  85 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   62  85  63  85 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18





000
FXUS64 KTSA 281728
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1228 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH
VISIBILITIES MAINLY AROUND 3-5SM. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
AFTER 14Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
GOING FORECAST IS IN REASONABLE SHAPE WITH
NO UPDATE PLANNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  87  64  86 /   0   0  10  10
FSM   63  87  62  86 /   0   0  10  10
MLC   61  86  62  85 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   56  86  59  86 /   0   0  10  20
FYV   55  83  55  82 /   0   0  10  10
BYV   58  82  57  81 /   0   0  10  10
MKO   61  86  61  85 /   0   0  10  10
MIO   60  83  61  84 /   0   0  10  10
F10   61  85  62  85 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   62  85  63  85 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18






000
FXUS64 KOUN 281655 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.AVIATION...
28/18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
RELATIVERLY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

.UPDATE...
OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. ANOTHER WARM DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. ABOUT THE ONLY DIFFERENCE
FROM YESTERDAY IS THAT TODAY MAY HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS
THAN YESTERDAY AND IT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER IN SOME
LOCATIONS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

MAXWELL
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

AVIATION...
SOME MID CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE... TO BE REPLACED BY SOME DAYTIME CU. HOWEVER... DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY CEILINGS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST/SOUTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN GOING WITH THE
LAST FEW DAYS. STILL LOOKING AT A WARM PERIOD WITH SOME RAIN
CHANCES BEFORE A COOL DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK.

WARM AND DRY BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY BEFORE LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT BASIN OPENS UP AND EJECTS EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO MAINLY NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. SEVERAL
OTHER MINOR DISTURBANCES WILL THEN DROP SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE
INITIAL WAVE... WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCE STILL APPEARS TO BE LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY... AS UPPER WAVE DROPS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH
AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS.

DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  87  63  87  64 /   0  10   0  10
HOBART OK         87  63  87  65 /   0  10   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  88  64  89  66 /   0  10   0  10
GAGE OK           85  59  85  62 /   0  10   0  30
PONCA CITY OK     86  61  86  64 /   0  10   0  10
DURANT OK         87  64  87  64 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/02



000
FXUS64 KOUN 281655 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.AVIATION...
28/18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
RELATIVERLY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

.UPDATE...
OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. ANOTHER WARM DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. ABOUT THE ONLY DIFFERENCE
FROM YESTERDAY IS THAT TODAY MAY HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS
THAN YESTERDAY AND IT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER IN SOME
LOCATIONS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

MAXWELL
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

AVIATION...
SOME MID CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE... TO BE REPLACED BY SOME DAYTIME CU. HOWEVER... DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY CEILINGS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST/SOUTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN GOING WITH THE
LAST FEW DAYS. STILL LOOKING AT A WARM PERIOD WITH SOME RAIN
CHANCES BEFORE A COOL DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK.

WARM AND DRY BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY BEFORE LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT BASIN OPENS UP AND EJECTS EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO MAINLY NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. SEVERAL
OTHER MINOR DISTURBANCES WILL THEN DROP SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE
INITIAL WAVE... WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCE STILL APPEARS TO BE LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY... AS UPPER WAVE DROPS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH
AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS.

DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  87  63  87  64 /   0  10   0  10
HOBART OK         87  63  87  65 /   0  10   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  88  64  89  66 /   0  10   0  10
GAGE OK           85  59  85  62 /   0  10   0  30
PONCA CITY OK     86  61  86  64 /   0  10   0  10
DURANT OK         87  64  87  64 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/02




000
FXUS64 KTSA 281607
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1107 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
GOING FORECAST IS IN REASONABLE SHAPE WITH
NO UPDATE PLANNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   86  62  87  64 /  10   0   0  10
FSM   86  63  87  62 /  10   0   0  10
MLC   86  61  86  62 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   86  56  86  59 /  10   0   0  10
FYV   82  55  83  55 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   82  58  82  57 /  10   0   0  10
MKO   85  61  86  61 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   83  60  83  61 /  10   0   0  10
F10   85  61  85  62 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   84  62  85  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....22





000
FXUS64 KOUN 281536 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1036 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. ANOTHER WARM DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. ABOUT THE ONLY DIFFERENCE
FROM YESTERDAY IS THAT TODAY MAY HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS
THAN YESTERDAY AND IT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER IN SOME
LOCATIONS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

MAXWELL
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

AVIATION...
SOME MID CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE... TO BE REPLACED BY SOME DAYTIME CU. HOWEVER... DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY CEILINGS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST/SOUTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN GOING WITH THE
LAST FEW DAYS. STILL LOOKING AT A WARM PERIOD WITH SOME RAIN
CHANCES BEFORE A COOL DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK.

WARM AND DRY BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY BEFORE LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT BASIN OPENS UP AND EJECTS EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO MAINLY NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. SEVERAL
OTHER MINOR DISTURBANCES WILL THEN DROP SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE
INITIAL WAVE... WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCE STILL APPEARS TO BE LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY... AS UPPER WAVE DROPS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH
AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS.

DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  87  63  87  64 /   0  10   0  10
HOBART OK         87  63  87  65 /   0  10   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  88  64  89  66 /   0  10   0  10
GAGE OK           85  59  85  62 /   0  10   0  30
PONCA CITY OK     86  61  86  64 /   0  10   0  10
DURANT OK         87  64  87  64 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/02



000
FXUS64 KOUN 281536 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1036 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. ANOTHER WARM DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. ABOUT THE ONLY DIFFERENCE
FROM YESTERDAY IS THAT TODAY MAY HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS
THAN YESTERDAY AND IT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER IN SOME
LOCATIONS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

MAXWELL
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

AVIATION...
SOME MID CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE... TO BE REPLACED BY SOME DAYTIME CU. HOWEVER... DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY CEILINGS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST/SOUTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN GOING WITH THE
LAST FEW DAYS. STILL LOOKING AT A WARM PERIOD WITH SOME RAIN
CHANCES BEFORE A COOL DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK.

WARM AND DRY BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY BEFORE LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT BASIN OPENS UP AND EJECTS EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO MAINLY NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. SEVERAL
OTHER MINOR DISTURBANCES WILL THEN DROP SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE
INITIAL WAVE... WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCE STILL APPEARS TO BE LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY... AS UPPER WAVE DROPS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH
AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS.

DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  87  63  87  64 /   0  10   0  10
HOBART OK         87  63  87  65 /   0  10   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  88  64  89  66 /   0  10   0  10
GAGE OK           85  59  85  62 /   0  10   0  30
PONCA CITY OK     86  61  86  64 /   0  10   0  10
DURANT OK         87  64  87  64 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/02




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