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000
FXUS64 KOUN 271007
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
407 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MAY-LIKE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TAP FOR TODAY AND
TOMORROW WITH RECORD OR NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN
MANY LOCATIONS TODAY. THE HIGHS YESTERDAY AND OTHER RECENT WARM
DAYS SUGGEST THE SCRIPT SHOULD BE TO HIT THE HIGH SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IF NOT HIGHER... AND FORECAST LOW-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES SUPPORT THIS VERY WARM IDEA. TOMORROW SHOULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY IN MOST AREAS... EXCEPT THE NORTHEAST
WHERE A LATE AFTERNOON ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
RETURN TO JANUARY-LIKE TEMPERATURES.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASES POPS A BIT FOR THIS SYSTEM... OTHERWISE NO
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST REASONING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  76  45  78  43 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         78  42  77  40 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  77  44  81  44 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           79  40  73  36 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     74  42  76  40 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         76  44  77  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 271007
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
407 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MAY-LIKE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TAP FOR TODAY AND
TOMORROW WITH RECORD OR NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN
MANY LOCATIONS TODAY. THE HIGHS YESTERDAY AND OTHER RECENT WARM
DAYS SUGGEST THE SCRIPT SHOULD BE TO HIT THE HIGH SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IF NOT HIGHER... AND FORECAST LOW-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES SUPPORT THIS VERY WARM IDEA. TOMORROW SHOULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY IN MOST AREAS... EXCEPT THE NORTHEAST
WHERE A LATE AFTERNOON ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
RETURN TO JANUARY-LIKE TEMPERATURES.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASES POPS A BIT FOR THIS SYSTEM... OTHERWISE NO
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST REASONING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  76  45  78  43 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         78  42  77  40 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  77  44  81  44 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           79  40  73  36 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     74  42  76  40 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         76  44  77  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 271007
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
407 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MAY-LIKE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TAP FOR TODAY AND
TOMORROW WITH RECORD OR NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN
MANY LOCATIONS TODAY. THE HIGHS YESTERDAY AND OTHER RECENT WARM
DAYS SUGGEST THE SCRIPT SHOULD BE TO HIT THE HIGH SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IF NOT HIGHER... AND FORECAST LOW-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES SUPPORT THIS VERY WARM IDEA. TOMORROW SHOULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY IN MOST AREAS... EXCEPT THE NORTHEAST
WHERE A LATE AFTERNOON ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
RETURN TO JANUARY-LIKE TEMPERATURES.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASES POPS A BIT FOR THIS SYSTEM... OTHERWISE NO
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST REASONING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  76  45  78  43 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         78  42  77  40 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  77  44  81  44 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           79  40  73  36 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     74  42  76  40 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         76  44  77  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 271007
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
407 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MAY-LIKE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TAP FOR TODAY AND
TOMORROW WITH RECORD OR NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN
MANY LOCATIONS TODAY. THE HIGHS YESTERDAY AND OTHER RECENT WARM
DAYS SUGGEST THE SCRIPT SHOULD BE TO HIT THE HIGH SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IF NOT HIGHER... AND FORECAST LOW-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES SUPPORT THIS VERY WARM IDEA. TOMORROW SHOULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY IN MOST AREAS... EXCEPT THE NORTHEAST
WHERE A LATE AFTERNOON ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
RETURN TO JANUARY-LIKE TEMPERATURES.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASES POPS A BIT FOR THIS SYSTEM... OTHERWISE NO
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST REASONING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  76  45  78  43 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         78  42  77  40 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  77  44  81  44 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           79  40  73  36 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     74  42  76  40 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         76  44  77  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KTSA 270908
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
308 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE SAME WILL BE TRUE ON WEDNESDAY.
THE WIND WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE
THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE AREA.

A MID-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL.

THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHERN
STREAM MID-LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA SURGES INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL SWEEP THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. MAY SEE A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW AS IT BEGINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS BEFORE TURNING TO ALL RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
SATURDAY. A WINTRY MIX WILL AGAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH ALL TYPES OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION BECOMING
POSSIBLE. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END AS RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TYPE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. THE REAL COLD AIR DOES NOT
LOOK TO MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PRECIPITATION IS
DEPARTING. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING HEAVIER WITH THE PRECIP AMOUNTS
AS A GOOD SLUG OF PACIFIC MOISTURE GETS INFUSED INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM. STAY TUNED AS THE WEEKEND FORECAST CONTINUES TO BECOME CLEARER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE
WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE NORMAL SIDE.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  46  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   69  41  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   72  45  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   71  38  76  39 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   65  37  67  40 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   62  39  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   69  43  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   66  41  72  41 /   0   0   0   0
F10   72  45  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   73  42  74  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 270908
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
308 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE SAME WILL BE TRUE ON WEDNESDAY.
THE WIND WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE
THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE AREA.

A MID-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL.

THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHERN
STREAM MID-LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA SURGES INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL SWEEP THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. MAY SEE A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW AS IT BEGINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS BEFORE TURNING TO ALL RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
SATURDAY. A WINTRY MIX WILL AGAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH ALL TYPES OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION BECOMING
POSSIBLE. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END AS RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TYPE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. THE REAL COLD AIR DOES NOT
LOOK TO MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PRECIPITATION IS
DEPARTING. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING HEAVIER WITH THE PRECIP AMOUNTS
AS A GOOD SLUG OF PACIFIC MOISTURE GETS INFUSED INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM. STAY TUNED AS THE WEEKEND FORECAST CONTINUES TO BECOME CLEARER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE
WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE NORMAL SIDE.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  46  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   69  41  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   72  45  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   71  38  76  39 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   65  37  67  40 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   62  39  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   69  43  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   66  41  72  41 /   0   0   0   0
F10   72  45  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   73  42  74  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....10





000
FXUS64 KOUN 270515
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1115 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

SURFACE WINDS WILL HAVE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AT ALL SITES BY
18Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

UPDATE...
OVERALL THE FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART LOOKS GOOD. DID INCREASE
CLOUD COVER IN SW PARTS OF FA WHERE SOME HIGH CLOUDS HAVE/ARE
MOVING IN. TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A LITTLE TOUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS AND MOST OF THE AREA UNDER CLEAR SKIES HAS LED TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING DROPPING TEMPS IN SOME LOCATIONS FASTER THAN
OTHERS THIS EVENING. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS FOR THIS OTHERWISE
THINGS LOOK ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
AT ALL SITES 12-17Z.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VERY WARM TEMPS ARE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
WESTERLY SFC FLOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ALL THE WAY
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOMORROW
OVER THE PLAINS...AND THE WARM TREND WILL CONTINUE AS A RESULT.
HIGHS MAY CLIMB CLOSE TO 80 ACROSS W OK TUES AFTERNOON...AND THEN
WESTERN N TX WED AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS
PREFRONTAL DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. LOW RH AND WIND SPEEDS AROUND
15 MPH WED...COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE AVG TEMPS...WILL RESULT IN AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN ALTHOUGH RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME THANKS TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

TEMPS WILL FINALLY COOL DOWN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. BY LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...MODELS REMAIN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH REGARDS TO AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
GULF OF CALI AND SW. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...INCREASING RAIN
AND SNOW CHANCES OVER THE REGION. FOR NOW...THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE ON SATURDAY WHEN WIDESPREAD DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE
PRESENT. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED AND SPREAD NORTHWARD A BIT. ITS
STILL UNCLEAR HOW MUCH SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE BASED ON SFC
TEMPS/WETBULBS THROUGH SUNDAY AM...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATION APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I40 FOR THE MOMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  41  73  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         38  77  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  40  74  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           37  78  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     35  73  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         42  72  45  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 270515
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1115 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

SURFACE WINDS WILL HAVE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AT ALL SITES BY
18Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

UPDATE...
OVERALL THE FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART LOOKS GOOD. DID INCREASE
CLOUD COVER IN SW PARTS OF FA WHERE SOME HIGH CLOUDS HAVE/ARE
MOVING IN. TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A LITTLE TOUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS AND MOST OF THE AREA UNDER CLEAR SKIES HAS LED TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING DROPPING TEMPS IN SOME LOCATIONS FASTER THAN
OTHERS THIS EVENING. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS FOR THIS OTHERWISE
THINGS LOOK ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
AT ALL SITES 12-17Z.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VERY WARM TEMPS ARE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
WESTERLY SFC FLOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ALL THE WAY
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOMORROW
OVER THE PLAINS...AND THE WARM TREND WILL CONTINUE AS A RESULT.
HIGHS MAY CLIMB CLOSE TO 80 ACROSS W OK TUES AFTERNOON...AND THEN
WESTERN N TX WED AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS
PREFRONTAL DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. LOW RH AND WIND SPEEDS AROUND
15 MPH WED...COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE AVG TEMPS...WILL RESULT IN AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN ALTHOUGH RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME THANKS TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

TEMPS WILL FINALLY COOL DOWN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. BY LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...MODELS REMAIN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH REGARDS TO AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
GULF OF CALI AND SW. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...INCREASING RAIN
AND SNOW CHANCES OVER THE REGION. FOR NOW...THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE ON SATURDAY WHEN WIDESPREAD DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE
PRESENT. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED AND SPREAD NORTHWARD A BIT. ITS
STILL UNCLEAR HOW MUCH SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE BASED ON SFC
TEMPS/WETBULBS THROUGH SUNDAY AM...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATION APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I40 FOR THE MOMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  41  73  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         38  77  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  40  74  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           37  78  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     35  73  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         42  72  45  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17



000
FXUS64 KTSA 270500
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1100 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS... GENERALLY WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS... WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24
HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO UPDATE IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 270500
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1100 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS... GENERALLY WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS... WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24
HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO UPDATE IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 270345
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
945 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO UPDATE IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....05

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KTSA 270345
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
945 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO UPDATE IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....05

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KTSA 270345
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
945 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO UPDATE IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....05

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KTSA 270345
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
945 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO UPDATE IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....05

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KTSA 270345
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
945 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO UPDATE IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....05

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KTSA 270345
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
945 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO UPDATE IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....05

PLATE






000
FXUS64 KOUN 270326 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
926 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
OVERALL THE FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART LOOKS GOOD. DID INCREASE
CLOUD COVER IN SW PARTS OF FA WHERE SOME HIGH CLOUDS HAVE/ARE
MOVING IN. TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A LITTLE TOUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS AND MOST OF THE AREA UNDER CLEAR SKIES HAS LED TO
RADIATIONALCOOLING DROPPING TEMPS IN SOME LOCATIONS FASTER THAN
OTHERS THIS EVENING. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS FOR THIS OTHERWISE
THINGS LOOK ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
AT ALL SITES 12-17Z.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VERY WARM TEMPS ARE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
WESTERLY SFC FLOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ALL THE WAY
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOMORROW
OVER THE PLAINS...AND THE WARM TREND WILL CONTINUE AS A RESULT.
HIGHS MAY CLIMB CLOSE TO 80 ACROSS W OK TUES AFTERNOON...AND THEN
WESTERN N TX WED AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS
PREFRONTAL DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. LOW RH AND WIND SPEEDS AROUND
15 MPH WED...COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE AVG TEMPS...WILL RESULT IN AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN ALTHOUGH RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME THANKS TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

TEMPS WILL FINALLY COOL DOWN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. BY LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...MODELS REMAIN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH REGARDS TO AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
GULF OF CALI AND SW. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...INCREASING RAIN
AND SNOW CHANCES OVER THE REGION. FOR NOW...THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE ON SATURDAY WHEN WIDESPREAD DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE
PRESENT. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED AND SPREAD NORTHWARD A BIT. ITS
STILL UNCLEAR HOW MUCH SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE BASED ON SFC
TEMPS/WETBULBS THROUGH SUNDAY AM...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATION APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I40 FOR THE MOMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  41  73  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         38  77  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  40  74  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           37  78  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     35  73  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         42  72  45  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 270326 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
926 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
OVERALL THE FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART LOOKS GOOD. DID INCREASE
CLOUD COVER IN SW PARTS OF FA WHERE SOME HIGH CLOUDS HAVE/ARE
MOVING IN. TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A LITTLE TOUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS AND MOST OF THE AREA UNDER CLEAR SKIES HAS LED TO
RADIATIONALCOOLING DROPPING TEMPS IN SOME LOCATIONS FASTER THAN
OTHERS THIS EVENING. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS FOR THIS OTHERWISE
THINGS LOOK ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
AT ALL SITES 12-17Z.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VERY WARM TEMPS ARE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
WESTERLY SFC FLOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ALL THE WAY
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOMORROW
OVER THE PLAINS...AND THE WARM TREND WILL CONTINUE AS A RESULT.
HIGHS MAY CLIMB CLOSE TO 80 ACROSS W OK TUES AFTERNOON...AND THEN
WESTERN N TX WED AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS
PREFRONTAL DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. LOW RH AND WIND SPEEDS AROUND
15 MPH WED...COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE AVG TEMPS...WILL RESULT IN AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN ALTHOUGH RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME THANKS TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

TEMPS WILL FINALLY COOL DOWN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. BY LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...MODELS REMAIN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH REGARDS TO AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
GULF OF CALI AND SW. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...INCREASING RAIN
AND SNOW CHANCES OVER THE REGION. FOR NOW...THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE ON SATURDAY WHEN WIDESPREAD DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE
PRESENT. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED AND SPREAD NORTHWARD A BIT. ITS
STILL UNCLEAR HOW MUCH SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE BASED ON SFC
TEMPS/WETBULBS THROUGH SUNDAY AM...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATION APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I40 FOR THE MOMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  41  73  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         38  77  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  40  74  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           37  78  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     35  73  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         42  72  45  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 270326 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
926 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
OVERALL THE FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART LOOKS GOOD. DID INCREASE
CLOUD COVER IN SW PARTS OF FA WHERE SOME HIGH CLOUDS HAVE/ARE
MOVING IN. TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A LITTLE TOUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS AND MOST OF THE AREA UNDER CLEAR SKIES HAS LED TO
RADIATIONALCOOLING DROPPING TEMPS IN SOME LOCATIONS FASTER THAN
OTHERS THIS EVENING. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS FOR THIS OTHERWISE
THINGS LOOK ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
AT ALL SITES 12-17Z.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VERY WARM TEMPS ARE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
WESTERLY SFC FLOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ALL THE WAY
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOMORROW
OVER THE PLAINS...AND THE WARM TREND WILL CONTINUE AS A RESULT.
HIGHS MAY CLIMB CLOSE TO 80 ACROSS W OK TUES AFTERNOON...AND THEN
WESTERN N TX WED AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS
PREFRONTAL DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. LOW RH AND WIND SPEEDS AROUND
15 MPH WED...COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE AVG TEMPS...WILL RESULT IN AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN ALTHOUGH RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME THANKS TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

TEMPS WILL FINALLY COOL DOWN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. BY LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...MODELS REMAIN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH REGARDS TO AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
GULF OF CALI AND SW. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...INCREASING RAIN
AND SNOW CHANCES OVER THE REGION. FOR NOW...THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE ON SATURDAY WHEN WIDESPREAD DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE
PRESENT. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED AND SPREAD NORTHWARD A BIT. ITS
STILL UNCLEAR HOW MUCH SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE BASED ON SFC
TEMPS/WETBULBS THROUGH SUNDAY AM...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATION APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I40 FOR THE MOMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  41  73  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         38  77  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  40  74  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           37  78  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     35  73  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         42  72  45  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 270326 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
926 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
OVERALL THE FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART LOOKS GOOD. DID INCREASE
CLOUD COVER IN SW PARTS OF FA WHERE SOME HIGH CLOUDS HAVE/ARE
MOVING IN. TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A LITTLE TOUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS AND MOST OF THE AREA UNDER CLEAR SKIES HAS LED TO
RADIATIONALCOOLING DROPPING TEMPS IN SOME LOCATIONS FASTER THAN
OTHERS THIS EVENING. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS FOR THIS OTHERWISE
THINGS LOOK ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
AT ALL SITES 12-17Z.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VERY WARM TEMPS ARE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
WESTERLY SFC FLOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ALL THE WAY
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOMORROW
OVER THE PLAINS...AND THE WARM TREND WILL CONTINUE AS A RESULT.
HIGHS MAY CLIMB CLOSE TO 80 ACROSS W OK TUES AFTERNOON...AND THEN
WESTERN N TX WED AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS
PREFRONTAL DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. LOW RH AND WIND SPEEDS AROUND
15 MPH WED...COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE AVG TEMPS...WILL RESULT IN AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN ALTHOUGH RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME THANKS TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

TEMPS WILL FINALLY COOL DOWN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. BY LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...MODELS REMAIN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH REGARDS TO AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
GULF OF CALI AND SW. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...INCREASING RAIN
AND SNOW CHANCES OVER THE REGION. FOR NOW...THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE ON SATURDAY WHEN WIDESPREAD DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE
PRESENT. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED AND SPREAD NORTHWARD A BIT. ITS
STILL UNCLEAR HOW MUCH SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE BASED ON SFC
TEMPS/WETBULBS THROUGH SUNDAY AM...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATION APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I40 FOR THE MOMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  41  73  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         38  77  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  40  74  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           37  78  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     35  73  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         42  72  45  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 262331
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
531 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
AT ALL SITES 12-17Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VERY WARM TEMPS ARE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
WESTERLY SFC FLOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ALL THE WAY
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOMORROW
OVER THE PLAINS...AND THE WARM TREND WILL CONTINUE AS A RESULT.
HIGHS MAY CLIMB CLOSE TO 80 ACROSS W OK TUES AFTERNOON...AND THEN
WESTERN N TX WED AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS
PREFRONTAL DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. LOW RH AND WIND SPEEDS AROUND
15 MPH WED...COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE AVG TEMPS...WILL RESULT IN AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN ALTHOUGH RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME THANKS TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

TEMPS WILL FINALLY COOL DOWN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. BY LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...MODELS REMAIN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH REGARDS TO AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
GULF OF CALI AND SW. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...INCREASING RAIN
AND SNOW CHANCES OVER THE REGION. FOR NOW...THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE ON SATURDAY WHEN WIDESPREAD DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE
PRESENT. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED AND SPREAD NORTHWARD A BIT. ITS
STILL UNCLEAR HOW MUCH SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE BASED ON SFC
TEMPS/WETBULBS THROUGH SUNDAY AM...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATION APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I40 FOR THE MOMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  42  73  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         39  77  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  74  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           36  78  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     37  73  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         44  72  45  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 262331
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
531 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
AT ALL SITES 12-17Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VERY WARM TEMPS ARE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
WESTERLY SFC FLOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ALL THE WAY
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOMORROW
OVER THE PLAINS...AND THE WARM TREND WILL CONTINUE AS A RESULT.
HIGHS MAY CLIMB CLOSE TO 80 ACROSS W OK TUES AFTERNOON...AND THEN
WESTERN N TX WED AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS
PREFRONTAL DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. LOW RH AND WIND SPEEDS AROUND
15 MPH WED...COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE AVG TEMPS...WILL RESULT IN AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN ALTHOUGH RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME THANKS TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

TEMPS WILL FINALLY COOL DOWN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. BY LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...MODELS REMAIN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH REGARDS TO AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
GULF OF CALI AND SW. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...INCREASING RAIN
AND SNOW CHANCES OVER THE REGION. FOR NOW...THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE ON SATURDAY WHEN WIDESPREAD DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE
PRESENT. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED AND SPREAD NORTHWARD A BIT. ITS
STILL UNCLEAR HOW MUCH SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE BASED ON SFC
TEMPS/WETBULBS THROUGH SUNDAY AM...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATION APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I40 FOR THE MOMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  42  73  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         39  77  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  74  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           36  78  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     37  73  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         44  72  45  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 262331
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
531 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
AT ALL SITES 12-17Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VERY WARM TEMPS ARE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
WESTERLY SFC FLOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ALL THE WAY
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOMORROW
OVER THE PLAINS...AND THE WARM TREND WILL CONTINUE AS A RESULT.
HIGHS MAY CLIMB CLOSE TO 80 ACROSS W OK TUES AFTERNOON...AND THEN
WESTERN N TX WED AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS
PREFRONTAL DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. LOW RH AND WIND SPEEDS AROUND
15 MPH WED...COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE AVG TEMPS...WILL RESULT IN AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN ALTHOUGH RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME THANKS TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

TEMPS WILL FINALLY COOL DOWN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. BY LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...MODELS REMAIN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH REGARDS TO AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
GULF OF CALI AND SW. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...INCREASING RAIN
AND SNOW CHANCES OVER THE REGION. FOR NOW...THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE ON SATURDAY WHEN WIDESPREAD DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE
PRESENT. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED AND SPREAD NORTHWARD A BIT. ITS
STILL UNCLEAR HOW MUCH SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE BASED ON SFC
TEMPS/WETBULBS THROUGH SUNDAY AM...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATION APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I40 FOR THE MOMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  42  73  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         39  77  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  74  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           36  78  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     37  73  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         44  72  45  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 262331
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
531 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
AT ALL SITES 12-17Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VERY WARM TEMPS ARE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
WESTERLY SFC FLOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ALL THE WAY
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOMORROW
OVER THE PLAINS...AND THE WARM TREND WILL CONTINUE AS A RESULT.
HIGHS MAY CLIMB CLOSE TO 80 ACROSS W OK TUES AFTERNOON...AND THEN
WESTERN N TX WED AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS
PREFRONTAL DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. LOW RH AND WIND SPEEDS AROUND
15 MPH WED...COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE AVG TEMPS...WILL RESULT IN AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN ALTHOUGH RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME THANKS TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

TEMPS WILL FINALLY COOL DOWN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. BY LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...MODELS REMAIN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH REGARDS TO AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
GULF OF CALI AND SW. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...INCREASING RAIN
AND SNOW CHANCES OVER THE REGION. FOR NOW...THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE ON SATURDAY WHEN WIDESPREAD DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE
PRESENT. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED AND SPREAD NORTHWARD A BIT. ITS
STILL UNCLEAR HOW MUCH SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE BASED ON SFC
TEMPS/WETBULBS THROUGH SUNDAY AM...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATION APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I40 FOR THE MOMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  42  73  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         39  77  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  74  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           36  78  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     37  73  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         44  72  45  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17




000
FXUS64 KTSA 262300
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
500 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS... GENERALLY WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS... WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24
HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE MUCH ANTICIPATED WARMUP IS WELL UNDERWAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING VERY QUICKLY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE WESTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES LOOK WARMER FOR TOMORROW...AS THE
EASTERN EDGE OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA...SO DESPITE A LESS FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION...HIGHS
SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAYS IN MOST SPOTS.
WEDNESDAY TAKES THE CAKE AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...HOWEVER...AS
THE PRE FRONTAL WARM NOSE BECOMES POSITIONED ATOP THE REGION...AND
WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE FRONT. STILL THINK THAT HIGHS WILL STAY BELOW
RECORD LEVELS...ESPECIALLY IN TULSA...BUT WIDESPREAD MID AND MAYBE
EVEN A FEW UPPER 70S PROBABLE. THE INCREASING WINDS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL COUPLE WITH THE NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES TO CAUSE
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE FRONT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE
THROUGH PRECIPITATION FREE.

IT TOOK A FEW DAYS BUT THE MODEL SUITE HAS GENERALLY COME INTO
AGREEMENT REGARDING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST A PART OF SUNDAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEEP AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL POUR INTO
THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. SOME COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN FROM
THE AIRMASS BEHIND THURSDAY/S COLD FRONT...WITH A REINFORCING
BATCH SET TO COME THROUGH SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE WARM ENOUGH THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL AS AND REMAIN LIQUID...EXCEPT PERHAPS ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. IT WILL LIKELY BE A RACE BETWEEN THE DEPARTURE
OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE ARRIVAL
OF THE COLD AIR TO SEE HOW MUCH OF THE RAIN TRANSITIONS TO WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TYPES SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. DATA OVER THE
PAST 12 TO 18 HOURS OR SO ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW
OR SLEET ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THAN IT APPEARED AT THIS SAME TIME YESTERDAY. ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO LOOK LOW...AS MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE ON THE WAY OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE IT CAN TRANSITION.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ENOUGH IN THE DETAILS THAT /BROKEN RECORD
WARNING/ UPDATED FORECASTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
CHANGES.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
NEXT SEVEN...WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL AND DRY CONDITIONS BY
NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 262300
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
500 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS... GENERALLY WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS... WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24
HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE MUCH ANTICIPATED WARMUP IS WELL UNDERWAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING VERY QUICKLY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE WESTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES LOOK WARMER FOR TOMORROW...AS THE
EASTERN EDGE OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA...SO DESPITE A LESS FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION...HIGHS
SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAYS IN MOST SPOTS.
WEDNESDAY TAKES THE CAKE AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...HOWEVER...AS
THE PRE FRONTAL WARM NOSE BECOMES POSITIONED ATOP THE REGION...AND
WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE FRONT. STILL THINK THAT HIGHS WILL STAY BELOW
RECORD LEVELS...ESPECIALLY IN TULSA...BUT WIDESPREAD MID AND MAYBE
EVEN A FEW UPPER 70S PROBABLE. THE INCREASING WINDS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL COUPLE WITH THE NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES TO CAUSE
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE FRONT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE
THROUGH PRECIPITATION FREE.

IT TOOK A FEW DAYS BUT THE MODEL SUITE HAS GENERALLY COME INTO
AGREEMENT REGARDING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST A PART OF SUNDAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEEP AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL POUR INTO
THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. SOME COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN FROM
THE AIRMASS BEHIND THURSDAY/S COLD FRONT...WITH A REINFORCING
BATCH SET TO COME THROUGH SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE WARM ENOUGH THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL AS AND REMAIN LIQUID...EXCEPT PERHAPS ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. IT WILL LIKELY BE A RACE BETWEEN THE DEPARTURE
OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE ARRIVAL
OF THE COLD AIR TO SEE HOW MUCH OF THE RAIN TRANSITIONS TO WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TYPES SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. DATA OVER THE
PAST 12 TO 18 HOURS OR SO ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW
OR SLEET ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THAN IT APPEARED AT THIS SAME TIME YESTERDAY. ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO LOOK LOW...AS MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE ON THE WAY OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE IT CAN TRANSITION.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ENOUGH IN THE DETAILS THAT /BROKEN RECORD
WARNING/ UPDATED FORECASTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
CHANGES.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
NEXT SEVEN...WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL AND DRY CONDITIONS BY
NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KOUN 262117
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
317 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
VERY WARM TEMPS ARE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
WESTERLY SFC FLOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ALL THE WAY
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOMORROW
OVER THE PLAINS...AND THE WARM TREND WILL CONTINUE AS A RESULT.
HIGHS MAY CLIMB CLOSE TO 80 ACROSS W OK TUES AFTERNOON...AND THEN
WESTERN N TX WED AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS
PREFRONTAL DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. LOW RH AND WIND SPEEDS AROUND
15 MPH WED...COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE AVG TEMPS...WILL RESULT IN AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN ALTHOUGH RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME THANKS TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

TEMPS WILL FINALLY COOL DOWN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. BY LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...MODELS REMAIN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH REGARDS TO AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
GULF OF CALI AND SW. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...INCREASING RAIN
AND SNOW CHANCES OVER THE REGION. FOR NOW...THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE ON SATURDAY WHEN WIDESPREAD DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE
PRESENT. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED AND SPREAD NORTHWARD A BIT. ITS
STILL UNCLEAR HOW MUCH SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE BASED ON SFC
TEMPS/WETBULBS THROUGH SUNDAY AM...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATION APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I40 FOR THE MOMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  42  73  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         39  77  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  74  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           36  78  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     37  73  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         44  72  45  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 262117
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
317 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
VERY WARM TEMPS ARE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
WESTERLY SFC FLOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ALL THE WAY
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOMORROW
OVER THE PLAINS...AND THE WARM TREND WILL CONTINUE AS A RESULT.
HIGHS MAY CLIMB CLOSE TO 80 ACROSS W OK TUES AFTERNOON...AND THEN
WESTERN N TX WED AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS
PREFRONTAL DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. LOW RH AND WIND SPEEDS AROUND
15 MPH WED...COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE AVG TEMPS...WILL RESULT IN AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN ALTHOUGH RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME THANKS TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

TEMPS WILL FINALLY COOL DOWN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. BY LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...MODELS REMAIN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH REGARDS TO AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
GULF OF CALI AND SW. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...INCREASING RAIN
AND SNOW CHANCES OVER THE REGION. FOR NOW...THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE ON SATURDAY WHEN WIDESPREAD DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE
PRESENT. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED AND SPREAD NORTHWARD A BIT. ITS
STILL UNCLEAR HOW MUCH SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE BASED ON SFC
TEMPS/WETBULBS THROUGH SUNDAY AM...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATION APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I40 FOR THE MOMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  42  73  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         39  77  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  74  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           36  78  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     37  73  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         44  72  45  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 262117
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
317 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
VERY WARM TEMPS ARE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
WESTERLY SFC FLOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ALL THE WAY
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOMORROW
OVER THE PLAINS...AND THE WARM TREND WILL CONTINUE AS A RESULT.
HIGHS MAY CLIMB CLOSE TO 80 ACROSS W OK TUES AFTERNOON...AND THEN
WESTERN N TX WED AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS
PREFRONTAL DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. LOW RH AND WIND SPEEDS AROUND
15 MPH WED...COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE AVG TEMPS...WILL RESULT IN AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN ALTHOUGH RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME THANKS TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

TEMPS WILL FINALLY COOL DOWN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. BY LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...MODELS REMAIN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH REGARDS TO AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
GULF OF CALI AND SW. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...INCREASING RAIN
AND SNOW CHANCES OVER THE REGION. FOR NOW...THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE ON SATURDAY WHEN WIDESPREAD DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE
PRESENT. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED AND SPREAD NORTHWARD A BIT. ITS
STILL UNCLEAR HOW MUCH SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE BASED ON SFC
TEMPS/WETBULBS THROUGH SUNDAY AM...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATION APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I40 FOR THE MOMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  42  73  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         39  77  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  74  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           36  78  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     37  73  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         44  72  45  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 262117
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
317 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
VERY WARM TEMPS ARE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
WESTERLY SFC FLOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ALL THE WAY
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOMORROW
OVER THE PLAINS...AND THE WARM TREND WILL CONTINUE AS A RESULT.
HIGHS MAY CLIMB CLOSE TO 80 ACROSS W OK TUES AFTERNOON...AND THEN
WESTERN N TX WED AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS
PREFRONTAL DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. LOW RH AND WIND SPEEDS AROUND
15 MPH WED...COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE AVG TEMPS...WILL RESULT IN AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN ALTHOUGH RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME THANKS TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

TEMPS WILL FINALLY COOL DOWN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. BY LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...MODELS REMAIN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH REGARDS TO AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
GULF OF CALI AND SW. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...INCREASING RAIN
AND SNOW CHANCES OVER THE REGION. FOR NOW...THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE ON SATURDAY WHEN WIDESPREAD DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE
PRESENT. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED AND SPREAD NORTHWARD A BIT. ITS
STILL UNCLEAR HOW MUCH SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE BASED ON SFC
TEMPS/WETBULBS THROUGH SUNDAY AM...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATION APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I40 FOR THE MOMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  42  73  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         39  77  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  74  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           36  78  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     37  73  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         44  72  45  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/03




000
FXUS64 KTSA 262048
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
248 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE MUCH ANTICIPATED WARMUP IS WELL UNDERWAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING VERY QUICKLY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE WESTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES LOOK WARMER FOR TOMORROW...AS THE
EASTERN EDGE OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA...SO DESPITE A LESS FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION...HIGHS
SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAYS IN MOST SPOTS.
WEDNESDAY TAKES THE CAKE AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...HOWEVER...AS
THE PRE FRONTAL WARM NOSE BECOMES POSITIONED ATOP THE REGION...AND
WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE FRONT. STILL THINK THAT HIGHS WILL STAY BELOW
RECORD LEVELS...ESPECIALLY IN TULSA...BUT WIDESPREAD MID AND MAYBE
EVEN A FEW UPPER 70S PROBABLE. THE INCREASING WINDS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL COUPLE WITH THE NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES TO CAUSE
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE FRONT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE
THROUGH PRECIPITATION FREE.

IT TOOK A FEW DAYS BUT THE MODEL SUITE HAS GENERALLY COME INTO
AGREEMENT REGARDING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST A PART OF SUNDAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEEP AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL POUR INTO
THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. SOME COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN FROM
THE AIRMASS BEHIND THURSDAY/S COLD FRONT...WITH A REINFORCING
BATCH SET TO COME THROUGH SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE WARM ENOUGH THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL AS AND REMAIN LIQUID...EXCEPT PERHAPS ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. IT WILL LIKELY BE A RACE BETWEEN THE DEPARTURE
OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE ARRIVAL
OF THE COLD AIR TO SEE HOW MUCH OF THE RAIN TRANSITIONS TO WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TYPES SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. DATA OVER THE
PAST 12 TO 18 HOURS OR SO ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW
OR SLEET ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THAN IT APPEARED AT THIS SAME TIME YESTERDAY. ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO LOOK LOW...AS MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE ON THE WAY OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE IT CAN TRANSITION.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ENOUGH IN THE DETAILS THAT /BROKEN RECORD
WARNING/ UPDATED FORECASTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
CHANGES.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
NEXT SEVEN...WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL AND DRY CONDITIONS BY
NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   39  72  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   39  69  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   40  72  44  75 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   32  71  42  75 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   32  65  36  68 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   35  62  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   38  69  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   34  66  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
F10   41  72  45  75 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   41  73  43  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 262048
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
248 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE MUCH ANTICIPATED WARMUP IS WELL UNDERWAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING VERY QUICKLY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE WESTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES LOOK WARMER FOR TOMORROW...AS THE
EASTERN EDGE OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA...SO DESPITE A LESS FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION...HIGHS
SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAYS IN MOST SPOTS.
WEDNESDAY TAKES THE CAKE AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...HOWEVER...AS
THE PRE FRONTAL WARM NOSE BECOMES POSITIONED ATOP THE REGION...AND
WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE FRONT. STILL THINK THAT HIGHS WILL STAY BELOW
RECORD LEVELS...ESPECIALLY IN TULSA...BUT WIDESPREAD MID AND MAYBE
EVEN A FEW UPPER 70S PROBABLE. THE INCREASING WINDS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL COUPLE WITH THE NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES TO CAUSE
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE FRONT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE
THROUGH PRECIPITATION FREE.

IT TOOK A FEW DAYS BUT THE MODEL SUITE HAS GENERALLY COME INTO
AGREEMENT REGARDING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST A PART OF SUNDAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEEP AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL POUR INTO
THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. SOME COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN FROM
THE AIRMASS BEHIND THURSDAY/S COLD FRONT...WITH A REINFORCING
BATCH SET TO COME THROUGH SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE WARM ENOUGH THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL AS AND REMAIN LIQUID...EXCEPT PERHAPS ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. IT WILL LIKELY BE A RACE BETWEEN THE DEPARTURE
OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE ARRIVAL
OF THE COLD AIR TO SEE HOW MUCH OF THE RAIN TRANSITIONS TO WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TYPES SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. DATA OVER THE
PAST 12 TO 18 HOURS OR SO ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW
OR SLEET ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THAN IT APPEARED AT THIS SAME TIME YESTERDAY. ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO LOOK LOW...AS MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE ON THE WAY OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE IT CAN TRANSITION.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ENOUGH IN THE DETAILS THAT /BROKEN RECORD
WARNING/ UPDATED FORECASTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
CHANGES.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
NEXT SEVEN...WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL AND DRY CONDITIONS BY
NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   39  72  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   39  69  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   40  72  44  75 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   32  71  42  75 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   32  65  36  68 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   35  62  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   38  69  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   34  66  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
F10   41  72  45  75 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   41  73  43  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 262048
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
248 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE MUCH ANTICIPATED WARMUP IS WELL UNDERWAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING VERY QUICKLY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE WESTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES LOOK WARMER FOR TOMORROW...AS THE
EASTERN EDGE OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA...SO DESPITE A LESS FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION...HIGHS
SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAYS IN MOST SPOTS.
WEDNESDAY TAKES THE CAKE AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...HOWEVER...AS
THE PRE FRONTAL WARM NOSE BECOMES POSITIONED ATOP THE REGION...AND
WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE FRONT. STILL THINK THAT HIGHS WILL STAY BELOW
RECORD LEVELS...ESPECIALLY IN TULSA...BUT WIDESPREAD MID AND MAYBE
EVEN A FEW UPPER 70S PROBABLE. THE INCREASING WINDS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL COUPLE WITH THE NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES TO CAUSE
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE FRONT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE
THROUGH PRECIPITATION FREE.

IT TOOK A FEW DAYS BUT THE MODEL SUITE HAS GENERALLY COME INTO
AGREEMENT REGARDING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST A PART OF SUNDAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEEP AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL POUR INTO
THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. SOME COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN FROM
THE AIRMASS BEHIND THURSDAY/S COLD FRONT...WITH A REINFORCING
BATCH SET TO COME THROUGH SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE WARM ENOUGH THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL AS AND REMAIN LIQUID...EXCEPT PERHAPS ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. IT WILL LIKELY BE A RACE BETWEEN THE DEPARTURE
OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE ARRIVAL
OF THE COLD AIR TO SEE HOW MUCH OF THE RAIN TRANSITIONS TO WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TYPES SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. DATA OVER THE
PAST 12 TO 18 HOURS OR SO ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW
OR SLEET ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THAN IT APPEARED AT THIS SAME TIME YESTERDAY. ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO LOOK LOW...AS MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE ON THE WAY OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE IT CAN TRANSITION.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ENOUGH IN THE DETAILS THAT /BROKEN RECORD
WARNING/ UPDATED FORECASTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
CHANGES.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
NEXT SEVEN...WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL AND DRY CONDITIONS BY
NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   39  72  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   39  69  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   40  72  44  75 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   32  71  42  75 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   32  65  36  68 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   35  62  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   38  69  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   34  66  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
F10   41  72  45  75 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   41  73  43  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 262048
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
248 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE MUCH ANTICIPATED WARMUP IS WELL UNDERWAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING VERY QUICKLY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE WESTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES LOOK WARMER FOR TOMORROW...AS THE
EASTERN EDGE OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA...SO DESPITE A LESS FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION...HIGHS
SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAYS IN MOST SPOTS.
WEDNESDAY TAKES THE CAKE AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...HOWEVER...AS
THE PRE FRONTAL WARM NOSE BECOMES POSITIONED ATOP THE REGION...AND
WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE FRONT. STILL THINK THAT HIGHS WILL STAY BELOW
RECORD LEVELS...ESPECIALLY IN TULSA...BUT WIDESPREAD MID AND MAYBE
EVEN A FEW UPPER 70S PROBABLE. THE INCREASING WINDS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL COUPLE WITH THE NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES TO CAUSE
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE FRONT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE
THROUGH PRECIPITATION FREE.

IT TOOK A FEW DAYS BUT THE MODEL SUITE HAS GENERALLY COME INTO
AGREEMENT REGARDING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST A PART OF SUNDAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEEP AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL POUR INTO
THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. SOME COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN FROM
THE AIRMASS BEHIND THURSDAY/S COLD FRONT...WITH A REINFORCING
BATCH SET TO COME THROUGH SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE WARM ENOUGH THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL AS AND REMAIN LIQUID...EXCEPT PERHAPS ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. IT WILL LIKELY BE A RACE BETWEEN THE DEPARTURE
OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE ARRIVAL
OF THE COLD AIR TO SEE HOW MUCH OF THE RAIN TRANSITIONS TO WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TYPES SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. DATA OVER THE
PAST 12 TO 18 HOURS OR SO ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW
OR SLEET ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THAN IT APPEARED AT THIS SAME TIME YESTERDAY. ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO LOOK LOW...AS MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE ON THE WAY OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE IT CAN TRANSITION.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ENOUGH IN THE DETAILS THAT /BROKEN RECORD
WARNING/ UPDATED FORECASTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
CHANGES.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
NEXT SEVEN...WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL AND DRY CONDITIONS BY
NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   39  72  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   39  69  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   40  72  44  75 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   32  71  42  75 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   32  65  36  68 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   35  62  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   38  69  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   34  66  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
F10   41  72  45  75 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   41  73  43  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KOUN 261737
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1137 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
BASED OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST SHORT-TERM MODELS WE RAISED
TEMPERATURES AND DROPPED DEWPOINTS ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA
AND ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL YIELD MUCH LOWER RH
VALUES FOR THE AFTERNOON AND IF WINDS WERE STRONGER...RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WOULD BE MET. WE WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR WILL APPLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH SUNSET...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 KT
TONIGHT BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY. CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  70  41  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         73  38  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  71  40  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           72  37  74  40 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     68  38  71  43 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         67  42  71  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/03



000
FXUS64 KOUN 261737
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1137 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
BASED OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST SHORT-TERM MODELS WE RAISED
TEMPERATURES AND DROPPED DEWPOINTS ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA
AND ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL YIELD MUCH LOWER RH
VALUES FOR THE AFTERNOON AND IF WINDS WERE STRONGER...RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WOULD BE MET. WE WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR WILL APPLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH SUNSET...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 KT
TONIGHT BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY. CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  70  41  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         73  38  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  71  40  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           72  37  74  40 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     68  38  71  43 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         67  42  71  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/03




000
FXUS64 KTSA 261733
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1133 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

CLEAR SKIES WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET...REMAINING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS AT A
FEW SITES...BVO/FYV/XNA...HINTED AT REDUCED VISIBILITIES AROUND
12Z TUESDAY MORNING...BUT HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE REGION EARLY
TUESDAY...KEEPING SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART LOOKS ON TRACK...REDUCED CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
SOME. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND WESTERLY WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD WARM
QUICKLY INTO THE 60S BY EARLY AFTERNOON...REACHING 70 DEGREES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE WELL-ADVERTISED WARMUP BEGINS TODAY AND WILL LAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK MUCH TOO COOL TODAY (MAINLY IN ERN
OK)...AS WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES WILL PROMOTE
STRONG MIXING. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR 70F FOR PARTS
OF ERN OK...AND THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO COOL. COOL BIAS IN GUIDANCE
EXTENDS INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON MIXING WILL BE LESS GIVEN
THE RATHER WEAK WIND FIELDS. EVEN SO...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST DAY...AS A STRONG THERMAL RIDGE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH MID 70S LIKELY ACROSS ERN OK.

DESPITE THE 3 DAY STRETCH OF WARM WEATHER...RECORD HIGHS WILL MOST
LIKELY REMAIN INTACT...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE CLOSE TODAY AT TUL/MLC.

RECORD HIGHS FOR LATE JANUARY...

         JAN 26      JAN 27      JAN 28
TUL.....71 (1911)...74 (1914)...82 (1909)
MLC.....72 (1994)...76 (1975)...77 (1970)
FYV.....74 (1952)...72 (1975)...72 (2002)
FSM.....80 (1952)...78 (1914)...79 (1970)

AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH DRY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT IT WILL BRING ENOUGH COOL AIR TO KNOCK THURSDAYS
AFTERNOON TEMPS DOWN A GOOD 15-20F DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE HASN`T INCREASED CONCERNING THE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND...AS THE LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE RESOLVING
THE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN A BIT WETTER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...AND DEVELOPS PRECIPITATION WELL INTO THE COLD AIR
LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE GFS
(WHICH GETS SUPPORT FROM THE GEM/DGEX)...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
REMAINING ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LIGHT PRECIP
TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
AGAIN CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW. THE FORECAST DETAILS WILL NO
DOUBT CHANGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE FINE-TUNED...SO STAY AWARE OF
THE LATEST UPDATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  40  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   64  39  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   69  41  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   68  32  70  40 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   59  34  66  39 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   57  37  63  40 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   67  38  68  43 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   63  34  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
F10   68  40  72  46 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   67  41  72  43 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
AVIATION...16






000
FXUS64 KOUN 261720
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1120 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL APPLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH SUNSET...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 KT
TONIGHT BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY. CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  41  72  45  75 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         38  73  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  40  74  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           37  74  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     38  71  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         42  71  45  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/03/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 261720
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1120 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL APPLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH SUNSET...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 KT
TONIGHT BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY. CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  41  72  45  75 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         38  73  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  40  74  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           37  74  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     38  71  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         42  71  45  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/03/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 261720
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1120 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL APPLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH SUNSET...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 KT
TONIGHT BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY. CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  41  72  45  75 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         38  73  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  40  74  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           37  74  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     38  71  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         42  71  45  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/03/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 261720
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1120 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL APPLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH SUNSET...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 KT
TONIGHT BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY. CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  41  72  45  75 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         38  73  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  40  74  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           37  74  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     38  71  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         42  71  45  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/03/03




000
FXUS64 KTSA 261610
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1010 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART LOOKS ON TRACK...REDUCED CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
SOME. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND WESTERLY WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD WARM
QUICKLY INTO THE 60S BY EARLY AFTERNOON...REACHING 70 DEGREES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE WELL-ADVERTISED WARMUP BEGINS TODAY AND WILL LAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK MUCH TOO COOL TODAY (MAINLY IN ERN
OK)...AS WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES WILL PROMOTE
STRONG MIXING. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR 70F FOR PARTS
OF ERN OK...AND THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO COOL. COOL BIAS IN GUIDANCE
EXTENDS INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON MIXING WILL BE LESS GIVEN
THE RATHER WEAK WIND FIELDS. EVEN SO...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST DAY...AS A STRONG THERMAL RIDGE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH MID 70S LIKELY ACROSS ERN OK.

DESPITE THE 3 DAY STRETCH OF WARM WEATHER...RECORD HIGHS WILL MOST
LIKELY REMAIN INTACT...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE CLOSE TODAY AT TUL/MLC.

RECORD HIGHS FOR LATE JANUARY...

         JAN 26      JAN 27      JAN 28
TUL.....71 (1911)...74 (1914)...82 (1909)
MLC.....72 (1994)...76 (1975)...77 (1970)
FYV.....74 (1952)...72 (1975)...72 (2002)
FSM.....80 (1952)...78 (1914)...79 (1970)

AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH DRY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT IT WILL BRING ENOUGH COOL AIR TO KNOCK THURSDAYS
AFTERNOON TEMPS DOWN A GOOD 15-20F DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE HASN`T INCREASED CONCERNING THE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND...AS THE LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE RESOLVING
THE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN A BIT WETTER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...AND DEVELOPS PRECIPITATION WELL INTO THE COLD AIR
LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE GFS
(WHICH GETS SUPPORT FROM THE GEM/DGEX)...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
REMAINING ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LIGHT PRECIP
TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
AGAIN CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW. THE FORECAST DETAILS WILL NO
DOUBT CHANGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE FINE-TUNED...SO STAY AWARE OF
THE LATEST UPDATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  40  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   64  39  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   69  41  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   68  32  70  40 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   59  34  66  39 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   57  37  63  40 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   67  38  68  43 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   63  34  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
F10   68  40  72  46 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   67  41  72  43 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16





000
FXUS64 KTSA 261610
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1010 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART LOOKS ON TRACK...REDUCED CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
SOME. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND WESTERLY WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD WARM
QUICKLY INTO THE 60S BY EARLY AFTERNOON...REACHING 70 DEGREES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE WELL-ADVERTISED WARMUP BEGINS TODAY AND WILL LAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK MUCH TOO COOL TODAY (MAINLY IN ERN
OK)...AS WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES WILL PROMOTE
STRONG MIXING. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR 70F FOR PARTS
OF ERN OK...AND THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO COOL. COOL BIAS IN GUIDANCE
EXTENDS INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON MIXING WILL BE LESS GIVEN
THE RATHER WEAK WIND FIELDS. EVEN SO...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST DAY...AS A STRONG THERMAL RIDGE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH MID 70S LIKELY ACROSS ERN OK.

DESPITE THE 3 DAY STRETCH OF WARM WEATHER...RECORD HIGHS WILL MOST
LIKELY REMAIN INTACT...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE CLOSE TODAY AT TUL/MLC.

RECORD HIGHS FOR LATE JANUARY...

         JAN 26      JAN 27      JAN 28
TUL.....71 (1911)...74 (1914)...82 (1909)
MLC.....72 (1994)...76 (1975)...77 (1970)
FYV.....74 (1952)...72 (1975)...72 (2002)
FSM.....80 (1952)...78 (1914)...79 (1970)

AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH DRY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT IT WILL BRING ENOUGH COOL AIR TO KNOCK THURSDAYS
AFTERNOON TEMPS DOWN A GOOD 15-20F DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE HASN`T INCREASED CONCERNING THE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND...AS THE LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE RESOLVING
THE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN A BIT WETTER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...AND DEVELOPS PRECIPITATION WELL INTO THE COLD AIR
LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE GFS
(WHICH GETS SUPPORT FROM THE GEM/DGEX)...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
REMAINING ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LIGHT PRECIP
TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
AGAIN CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW. THE FORECAST DETAILS WILL NO
DOUBT CHANGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE FINE-TUNED...SO STAY AWARE OF
THE LATEST UPDATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  40  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   64  39  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   69  41  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   68  32  70  40 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   59  34  66  39 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   57  37  63  40 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   67  38  68  43 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   63  34  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
F10   68  40  72  46 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   67  41  72  43 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16






000
FXUS64 KTSA 261131
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
531 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
STUBBORN MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. EXPECT THAT ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE
VFR WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER THAT...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE WELL-ADVERTISED WARMUP BEGINS TODAY AND WILL LAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK MUCH TOO COOL TODAY (MAINLY IN ERN
OK)...AS WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES WILL PROMOTE
STRONG MIXING. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR 70F FOR PARTS
OF ERN OK...AND THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO COOL. COOL BIAS IN GUIDANCE
EXTENDS INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON MIXING WILL BE LESS GIVEN
THE RATHER WEAK WIND FIELDS. EVEN SO...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST DAY...AS A STRONG THERMAL RIDGE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH MID 70S LIKELY ACROSS ERN OK.

DESPITE THE 3 DAY STRETCH OF WARM WEATHER...RECORD HIGHS WILL MOST
LIKELY REMAIN INTACT...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE CLOSE TODAY AT TUL/MLC.

RECORD HIGHS FOR LATE JANUARY...

         JAN 26      JAN 27      JAN 28
TUL.....71 (1911)...74 (1914)...82 (1909)
MLC.....72 (1994)...76 (1975)...77 (1970)
FYV.....74 (1952)...72 (1975)...72 (2002)
FSM.....80 (1952)...78 (1914)...79 (1970)

AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH DRY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT IT WILL BRING ENOUGH COOL AIR TO KNOCK THURSDAYS
AFTERNOON TEMPS DOWN A GOOD 15-20F DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE HASN`T INCREASED CONCERNING THE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND...AS THE LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE RESOLVING
THE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN A BIT WETTER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...AND DEVELOPS PRECIPITATION WELL INTO THE COLD AIR
LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE GFS
(WHICH GETS SUPPORT FROM THE GEM/DGEX)...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
REMAINING ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LIGHT PRECIP
TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
AGAIN CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW. THE FORECAST DETAILS WILL NO
DOUBT CHANGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE FINE-TUNED...SO STAY AWARE OF
THE LATEST UPDATES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10





000
FXUS64 KTSA 261131
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
531 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
STUBBORN MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. EXPECT THAT ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE
VFR WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER THAT...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE WELL-ADVERTISED WARMUP BEGINS TODAY AND WILL LAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK MUCH TOO COOL TODAY (MAINLY IN ERN
OK)...AS WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES WILL PROMOTE
STRONG MIXING. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR 70F FOR PARTS
OF ERN OK...AND THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO COOL. COOL BIAS IN GUIDANCE
EXTENDS INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON MIXING WILL BE LESS GIVEN
THE RATHER WEAK WIND FIELDS. EVEN SO...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST DAY...AS A STRONG THERMAL RIDGE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH MID 70S LIKELY ACROSS ERN OK.

DESPITE THE 3 DAY STRETCH OF WARM WEATHER...RECORD HIGHS WILL MOST
LIKELY REMAIN INTACT...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE CLOSE TODAY AT TUL/MLC.

RECORD HIGHS FOR LATE JANUARY...

         JAN 26      JAN 27      JAN 28
TUL.....71 (1911)...74 (1914)...82 (1909)
MLC.....72 (1994)...76 (1975)...77 (1970)
FYV.....74 (1952)...72 (1975)...72 (2002)
FSM.....80 (1952)...78 (1914)...79 (1970)

AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH DRY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT IT WILL BRING ENOUGH COOL AIR TO KNOCK THURSDAYS
AFTERNOON TEMPS DOWN A GOOD 15-20F DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE HASN`T INCREASED CONCERNING THE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND...AS THE LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE RESOLVING
THE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN A BIT WETTER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...AND DEVELOPS PRECIPITATION WELL INTO THE COLD AIR
LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE GFS
(WHICH GETS SUPPORT FROM THE GEM/DGEX)...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
REMAINING ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LIGHT PRECIP
TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
AGAIN CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW. THE FORECAST DETAILS WILL NO
DOUBT CHANGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE FINE-TUNED...SO STAY AWARE OF
THE LATEST UPDATES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10






000
FXUS64 KOUN 261129
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
529 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL 271200. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
THIS MORNING AND SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES...25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS...ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TODAY WILL ALSO BE QUITE WARM. THE
GENERAL DOWNSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND AN APPROACHING UPPER
RIDGE WILL BRING THE VERY HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO OKLAHOMA THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL
BRING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WEDNESDAY AND A MODEST INCREASE TO
HUMIDITY. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY WILL BE THE START OF A RUN OF DAYS
WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND
MODELS DIFFER ON THE APPROACH OF A CUT-OFF MID-LEVEL LOW OVER
NORTHWEST MEXICO. A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW STILL EXISTS, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  41  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         72  38  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  71  40  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           72  37  74  40 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     68  38  71  43 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         68  42  71  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/09/09



000
FXUS64 KOUN 261129
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
529 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL 271200. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
THIS MORNING AND SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES...25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS...ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TODAY WILL ALSO BE QUITE WARM. THE
GENERAL DOWNSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND AN APPROACHING UPPER
RIDGE WILL BRING THE VERY HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO OKLAHOMA THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL
BRING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WEDNESDAY AND A MODEST INCREASE TO
HUMIDITY. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY WILL BE THE START OF A RUN OF DAYS
WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND
MODELS DIFFER ON THE APPROACH OF A CUT-OFF MID-LEVEL LOW OVER
NORTHWEST MEXICO. A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW STILL EXISTS, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  41  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         72  38  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  71  40  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           72  37  74  40 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     68  38  71  43 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         68  42  71  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/09/09



000
FXUS64 KOUN 261129
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
529 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL 271200. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
THIS MORNING AND SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES...25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS...ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TODAY WILL ALSO BE QUITE WARM. THE
GENERAL DOWNSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND AN APPROACHING UPPER
RIDGE WILL BRING THE VERY HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO OKLAHOMA THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL
BRING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WEDNESDAY AND A MODEST INCREASE TO
HUMIDITY. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY WILL BE THE START OF A RUN OF DAYS
WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND
MODELS DIFFER ON THE APPROACH OF A CUT-OFF MID-LEVEL LOW OVER
NORTHWEST MEXICO. A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW STILL EXISTS, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  41  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         72  38  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  71  40  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           72  37  74  40 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     68  38  71  43 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         68  42  71  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/09/09



000
FXUS64 KOUN 261129
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
529 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL 271200. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
THIS MORNING AND SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES...25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS...ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TODAY WILL ALSO BE QUITE WARM. THE
GENERAL DOWNSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND AN APPROACHING UPPER
RIDGE WILL BRING THE VERY HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO OKLAHOMA THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL
BRING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WEDNESDAY AND A MODEST INCREASE TO
HUMIDITY. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY WILL BE THE START OF A RUN OF DAYS
WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND
MODELS DIFFER ON THE APPROACH OF A CUT-OFF MID-LEVEL LOW OVER
NORTHWEST MEXICO. A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW STILL EXISTS, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  41  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         72  38  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  71  40  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           72  37  74  40 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     68  38  71  43 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         68  42  71  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/09/09



000
FXUS64 KOUN 261009
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
409 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES...25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS...ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TODAY WILL ALSO BE QUITE WARM. THE
GENERAL DOWNSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND AN APPROACHING UPPER
RIDGE WILL BRING THE VERY HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO OKLAHOMA THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL
BRING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WEDNESDAY AND A MODEST INCREASE TO
HUMIDITY. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY WILL BE THE START OF A RUN OF DAYS
WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND
MODELS DIFFER ON THE APPROACH OF A CUT-OFF MID-LEVEL LOW OVER
NORTHWEST MEXICO. A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW STILL EXISTS, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  41  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         72  38  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  71  40  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           72  37  74  40 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     68  38  71  43 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         68  42  71  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 261009
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
409 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES...25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS...ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TODAY WILL ALSO BE QUITE WARM. THE
GENERAL DOWNSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND AN APPROACHING UPPER
RIDGE WILL BRING THE VERY HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO OKLAHOMA THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL
BRING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WEDNESDAY AND A MODEST INCREASE TO
HUMIDITY. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY WILL BE THE START OF A RUN OF DAYS
WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND
MODELS DIFFER ON THE APPROACH OF A CUT-OFF MID-LEVEL LOW OVER
NORTHWEST MEXICO. A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW STILL EXISTS, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  41  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         72  38  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  71  40  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           72  37  74  40 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     68  38  71  43 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         68  42  71  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/09



000
FXUS64 KTSA 260847
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
247 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE WELL-ADVERTISED WARMUP BEGINS TODAY AND WILL LAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK MUCH TOO COOL TODAY (MAINLY IN ERN
OK)...AS WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES WILL PROMOTE
STRONG MIXING. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR 70F FOR PARTS
OF ERN OK...AND THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO COOL. COOL BIAS IN GUIDANCE
EXTENDS INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON MIXING WILL BE LESS GIVEN
THE RATHER WEAK WIND FIELDS. EVEN SO...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST DAY...AS A STRONG THERMAL RIDGE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH MID 70S LIKELY ACROSS ERN OK.

DESPITE THE 3 DAY STRETCH OF WARM WEATHER...RECORD HIGHS WILL MOST
LIKELY REMAIN INTACT...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE CLOSE TODAY AT TUL/MLC.

RECORD HIGHS FOR LATE JANUARY...

         JAN 26      JAN 27      JAN 28
TUL.....71 (1911)...74 (1914)...82 (1909)
MLC.....72 (1994)...76 (1975)...77 (1970)
FYV.....74 (1952)...72 (1975)...72 (2002)
FSM.....80 (1952)...78 (1914)...79 (1970)

AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH DRY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT IT WILL BRING ENOUGH COOL AIR TO KNOCK THURSDAYS
AFTERNOON TEMPS DOWN A GOOD 15-20F DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE HASN`T INCREASED CONCERNING THE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND...AS THE LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE RESOLVING
THE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN A BIT WETTER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...AND DEVELOPS PRECIPITATION WELL INTO THE COLD AIR
LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE GFS
(WHICH GETS SUPPORT FROM THE GEM/DGEX)...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
REMAINING ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LIGHT PRECIP
TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
AGAIN CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW. THE FORECAST DETAILS WILL NO
DOUBT CHANGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE FINE-TUNED...SO STAY AWARE OF
THE LATEST UPDATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  40  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   65  39  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   70  41  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   69  32  70  40 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   59  34  66  39 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   57  37  63  40 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   68  38  68  43 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   64  34  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
F10   70  40  72  46 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   70  41  72  43 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....18





000
FXUS64 KTSA 260847
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
247 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE WELL-ADVERTISED WARMUP BEGINS TODAY AND WILL LAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK MUCH TOO COOL TODAY (MAINLY IN ERN
OK)...AS WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES WILL PROMOTE
STRONG MIXING. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR 70F FOR PARTS
OF ERN OK...AND THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO COOL. COOL BIAS IN GUIDANCE
EXTENDS INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON MIXING WILL BE LESS GIVEN
THE RATHER WEAK WIND FIELDS. EVEN SO...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST DAY...AS A STRONG THERMAL RIDGE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH MID 70S LIKELY ACROSS ERN OK.

DESPITE THE 3 DAY STRETCH OF WARM WEATHER...RECORD HIGHS WILL MOST
LIKELY REMAIN INTACT...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE CLOSE TODAY AT TUL/MLC.

RECORD HIGHS FOR LATE JANUARY...

         JAN 26      JAN 27      JAN 28
TUL.....71 (1911)...74 (1914)...82 (1909)
MLC.....72 (1994)...76 (1975)...77 (1970)
FYV.....74 (1952)...72 (1975)...72 (2002)
FSM.....80 (1952)...78 (1914)...79 (1970)

AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH DRY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT IT WILL BRING ENOUGH COOL AIR TO KNOCK THURSDAYS
AFTERNOON TEMPS DOWN A GOOD 15-20F DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE HASN`T INCREASED CONCERNING THE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND...AS THE LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE RESOLVING
THE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN A BIT WETTER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...AND DEVELOPS PRECIPITATION WELL INTO THE COLD AIR
LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE GFS
(WHICH GETS SUPPORT FROM THE GEM/DGEX)...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
REMAINING ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LIGHT PRECIP
TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
AGAIN CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW. THE FORECAST DETAILS WILL NO
DOUBT CHANGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE FINE-TUNED...SO STAY AWARE OF
THE LATEST UPDATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  40  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   65  39  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   70  41  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   69  32  70  40 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   59  34  66  39 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   57  37  63  40 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   68  38  68  43 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   64  34  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
F10   70  40  72  46 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   70  41  72  43 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....18





000
FXUS64 KTSA 260847
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
247 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE WELL-ADVERTISED WARMUP BEGINS TODAY AND WILL LAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK MUCH TOO COOL TODAY (MAINLY IN ERN
OK)...AS WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES WILL PROMOTE
STRONG MIXING. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR 70F FOR PARTS
OF ERN OK...AND THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO COOL. COOL BIAS IN GUIDANCE
EXTENDS INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON MIXING WILL BE LESS GIVEN
THE RATHER WEAK WIND FIELDS. EVEN SO...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST DAY...AS A STRONG THERMAL RIDGE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH MID 70S LIKELY ACROSS ERN OK.

DESPITE THE 3 DAY STRETCH OF WARM WEATHER...RECORD HIGHS WILL MOST
LIKELY REMAIN INTACT...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE CLOSE TODAY AT TUL/MLC.

RECORD HIGHS FOR LATE JANUARY...

         JAN 26      JAN 27      JAN 28
TUL.....71 (1911)...74 (1914)...82 (1909)
MLC.....72 (1994)...76 (1975)...77 (1970)
FYV.....74 (1952)...72 (1975)...72 (2002)
FSM.....80 (1952)...78 (1914)...79 (1970)

AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH DRY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT IT WILL BRING ENOUGH COOL AIR TO KNOCK THURSDAYS
AFTERNOON TEMPS DOWN A GOOD 15-20F DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE HASN`T INCREASED CONCERNING THE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND...AS THE LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE RESOLVING
THE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN A BIT WETTER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...AND DEVELOPS PRECIPITATION WELL INTO THE COLD AIR
LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE GFS
(WHICH GETS SUPPORT FROM THE GEM/DGEX)...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
REMAINING ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LIGHT PRECIP
TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
AGAIN CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW. THE FORECAST DETAILS WILL NO
DOUBT CHANGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE FINE-TUNED...SO STAY AWARE OF
THE LATEST UPDATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  40  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   65  39  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   70  41  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   69  32  70  40 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   59  34  66  39 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   57  37  63  40 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   68  38  68  43 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   64  34  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
F10   70  40  72  46 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   70  41  72  43 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....18





000
FXUS64 KTSA 260847
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
247 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE WELL-ADVERTISED WARMUP BEGINS TODAY AND WILL LAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK MUCH TOO COOL TODAY (MAINLY IN ERN
OK)...AS WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES WILL PROMOTE
STRONG MIXING. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR 70F FOR PARTS
OF ERN OK...AND THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO COOL. COOL BIAS IN GUIDANCE
EXTENDS INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON MIXING WILL BE LESS GIVEN
THE RATHER WEAK WIND FIELDS. EVEN SO...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST DAY...AS A STRONG THERMAL RIDGE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH MID 70S LIKELY ACROSS ERN OK.

DESPITE THE 3 DAY STRETCH OF WARM WEATHER...RECORD HIGHS WILL MOST
LIKELY REMAIN INTACT...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE CLOSE TODAY AT TUL/MLC.

RECORD HIGHS FOR LATE JANUARY...

         JAN 26      JAN 27      JAN 28
TUL.....71 (1911)...74 (1914)...82 (1909)
MLC.....72 (1994)...76 (1975)...77 (1970)
FYV.....74 (1952)...72 (1975)...72 (2002)
FSM.....80 (1952)...78 (1914)...79 (1970)

AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH DRY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT IT WILL BRING ENOUGH COOL AIR TO KNOCK THURSDAYS
AFTERNOON TEMPS DOWN A GOOD 15-20F DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE HASN`T INCREASED CONCERNING THE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND...AS THE LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE RESOLVING
THE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN A BIT WETTER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...AND DEVELOPS PRECIPITATION WELL INTO THE COLD AIR
LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE GFS
(WHICH GETS SUPPORT FROM THE GEM/DGEX)...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
REMAINING ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LIGHT PRECIP
TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
AGAIN CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW. THE FORECAST DETAILS WILL NO
DOUBT CHANGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE FINE-TUNED...SO STAY AWARE OF
THE LATEST UPDATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  40  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   65  39  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   70  41  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   69  32  70  40 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   59  34  66  39 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   57  37  63  40 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   68  38  68  43 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   64  34  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
F10   70  40  72  46 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   70  41  72  43 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....18





000
FXUS64 KTSA 260506
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1106 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AT ALL EASTERN OKLAHOMA TAF SITES. ARKANSAS TAF SITES WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST. AFTER THAT... VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 24
HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA AND
WINDS ARE DIMINISHING. THESE TRENDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES.

UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL RETURN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WITH RAPIDLY WARMING LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AND WINDS VEERING TO
A STRONG WESTERLY COMPONENT...TEMPERATURES MAY GET OUT OF HAND
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA. WILL LET THE
NEXT SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KOUN 260445
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1045 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

WINDS WILL INCREASE 13-17Z ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME GUSTS 20-25
KT FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH AROUND
00Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 239 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SUBSIDE EARLY BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM
TODAY. WE HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY ANOTHER HOUR...UNTIL
5PM. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS AND RH HAVE NOT REACHED RED FLAG LEVELS
THE WIND HAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO DIFFICULT
CONTAINMENT OF ANY FIRES THAT GET STARTED. BRIEF STRETCH OF MUCH
WARMER WEATHER WILL COMMENCE TOMORROW AND LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD
WILL KEEP WILDFIRE DANGERS ELEVATED...BUT THANKFULLY IT LOOKS AS
THOUGH TODAY WILL BE BY FAR THE WINDIEST DAY...ALTHOUGH SOME
GUSTINESS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE WILDFIRE
CONCERNS...WE EXPECT A FEW DAYTIME HIGH RECORDS TO BE TIED OR
BROKEN ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COOL DOWN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND COLD FRONT.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON DURATION AND INTENSITY OF
PRECIPITATION. GFS CONSISTENTLY THE WETTER MODEL...BRINGING RAIN IN
QUICKER AND KEEPING IT AROUND LONGER. BUT IT IS ALSO THE WARMER
MODEL. ECM IS BEGINNING TO TREND TOWARD THE WETTER GFS WITH MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. THE ECM DOES
BRING IN REINFORCING COLD AIR LATE SATURDAY WHICH WOULD ALLOW A
CHANGE OVER TO MORE OF A WINTRY EVENT BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS. WE
WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF SNOW IN FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PARTS OF OKLAHOMA DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND CONSISTENCY. EVENT IS
STILL QUITE A WAYS OUT THERE IN TIME...BUT TRENDS WOULD SUPPORT MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE SEEN OVER FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS IN LIQUID FORM. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  32  68  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         32  71  37  73 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  33  70  39  74 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           31  71  36  74 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     24  67  37  71 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         34  67  41  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 260445
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1045 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

WINDS WILL INCREASE 13-17Z ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME GUSTS 20-25
KT FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH AROUND
00Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 239 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SUBSIDE EARLY BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM
TODAY. WE HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY ANOTHER HOUR...UNTIL
5PM. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS AND RH HAVE NOT REACHED RED FLAG LEVELS
THE WIND HAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO DIFFICULT
CONTAINMENT OF ANY FIRES THAT GET STARTED. BRIEF STRETCH OF MUCH
WARMER WEATHER WILL COMMENCE TOMORROW AND LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD
WILL KEEP WILDFIRE DANGERS ELEVATED...BUT THANKFULLY IT LOOKS AS
THOUGH TODAY WILL BE BY FAR THE WINDIEST DAY...ALTHOUGH SOME
GUSTINESS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE WILDFIRE
CONCERNS...WE EXPECT A FEW DAYTIME HIGH RECORDS TO BE TIED OR
BROKEN ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COOL DOWN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND COLD FRONT.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON DURATION AND INTENSITY OF
PRECIPITATION. GFS CONSISTENTLY THE WETTER MODEL...BRINGING RAIN IN
QUICKER AND KEEPING IT AROUND LONGER. BUT IT IS ALSO THE WARMER
MODEL. ECM IS BEGINNING TO TREND TOWARD THE WETTER GFS WITH MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. THE ECM DOES
BRING IN REINFORCING COLD AIR LATE SATURDAY WHICH WOULD ALLOW A
CHANGE OVER TO MORE OF A WINTRY EVENT BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS. WE
WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF SNOW IN FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PARTS OF OKLAHOMA DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND CONSISTENCY. EVENT IS
STILL QUITE A WAYS OUT THERE IN TIME...BUT TRENDS WOULD SUPPORT MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE SEEN OVER FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS IN LIQUID FORM. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  32  68  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         32  71  37  73 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  33  70  39  74 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           31  71  36  74 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     24  67  37  71 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         34  67  41  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17/17




000
FXUS64 KTSA 260350
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
950 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA AND
WINDS ARE DIMINISHING. THESE TRENDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES.

UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL RETURN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WITH RAPIDLY WARMING LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AND WINDS VEERING TO
A STRONG WESTERLY COMPONENT...TEMPERATURES MAY GET OUT OF HAND
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA. WILL LET THE
NEXT SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....05

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KTSA 260350
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
950 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA AND
WINDS ARE DIMINISHING. THESE TRENDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES.

UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL RETURN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WITH RAPIDLY WARMING LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AND WINDS VEERING TO
A STRONG WESTERLY COMPONENT...TEMPERATURES MAY GET OUT OF HAND
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA. WILL LET THE
NEXT SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....05

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KTSA 260350
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
950 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA AND
WINDS ARE DIMINISHING. THESE TRENDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES.

UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL RETURN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WITH RAPIDLY WARMING LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AND WINDS VEERING TO
A STRONG WESTERLY COMPONENT...TEMPERATURES MAY GET OUT OF HAND
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA. WILL LET THE
NEXT SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....05

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KTSA 260350
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
950 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA AND
WINDS ARE DIMINISHING. THESE TRENDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES.

UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL RETURN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WITH RAPIDLY WARMING LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AND WINDS VEERING TO
A STRONG WESTERLY COMPONENT...TEMPERATURES MAY GET OUT OF HAND
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA. WILL LET THE
NEXT SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....05

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KOUN 260301
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
901 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES...CLOSE TO
RECENT RAP13 NUMBERS. SEVERAL NORTH CENTRAL LOCATIONS
HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE LOWER 30S AT MID EVENING.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH A RATHER
LIGHT WIND.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

SURFACE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BELOW 10 KT BY 01Z AT ALL
SITES...THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST 02-11Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE
13-16Z ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME GUSTS 20-25 KT FROM THE WEST
OR NORTHWEST.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SUBSIDE EARLY BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM
TODAY. WE HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY ANOTHER HOUR...UNTIL
5PM. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS AND RH HAVE NOT REACHED RED FLAG LEVELS
THE WIND HAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO DIFFICULT
CONTAINMENT OF ANY FIRES THAT GET STARTED. BRIEF STRETCH OF MUCH
WARMER WEATHER WILL COMMENCE TOMORROW AND LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD
WILL KEEP WILDFIRE DANGERS ELEVATED...BUT THANKFULLY IT LOOKS AS
THOUGH TODAY WILL BE BY FAR THE WINDIEST DAY...ALTHOUGH SOME
GUSTINESS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE WILDFIRE
CONCERNS...WE EXPECT A FEW DAYTIME HIGH RECORDS TO BE TIED OR
BROKEN ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COOL DOWN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND COLD FRONT.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON DURATION AND INTENSITY OF
PRECIPITATION. GFS CONSISTENTLY THE WETTER MODEL...BRINGING RAIN IN
QUICKER AND KEEPING IT AROUND LONGER. BUT IT IS ALSO THE WARMER
MODEL. ECM IS BEGINNING TO TREND TOWARD THE WETTER GFS WITH MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. THE ECM DOES
BRING IN REINFORCING COLD AIR LATE SATURDAY WHICH WOULD ALLOW A
CHANGE OVER TO MORE OF A WINTRY EVENT BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS. WE
WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF SNOW IN FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PARTS OF OKLAHOMA DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND CONSISTENCY. EVENT IS
STILL QUITE A WAYS OUT THERE IN TIME...BUT TRENDS WOULD SUPPORT MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE SEEN OVER FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS IN LIQUID FORM. STAY TUNED.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 260301
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
901 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES...CLOSE TO
RECENT RAP13 NUMBERS. SEVERAL NORTH CENTRAL LOCATIONS
HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE LOWER 30S AT MID EVENING.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH A RATHER
LIGHT WIND.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

SURFACE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BELOW 10 KT BY 01Z AT ALL
SITES...THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST 02-11Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE
13-16Z ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME GUSTS 20-25 KT FROM THE WEST
OR NORTHWEST.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SUBSIDE EARLY BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM
TODAY. WE HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY ANOTHER HOUR...UNTIL
5PM. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS AND RH HAVE NOT REACHED RED FLAG LEVELS
THE WIND HAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO DIFFICULT
CONTAINMENT OF ANY FIRES THAT GET STARTED. BRIEF STRETCH OF MUCH
WARMER WEATHER WILL COMMENCE TOMORROW AND LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD
WILL KEEP WILDFIRE DANGERS ELEVATED...BUT THANKFULLY IT LOOKS AS
THOUGH TODAY WILL BE BY FAR THE WINDIEST DAY...ALTHOUGH SOME
GUSTINESS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE WILDFIRE
CONCERNS...WE EXPECT A FEW DAYTIME HIGH RECORDS TO BE TIED OR
BROKEN ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COOL DOWN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND COLD FRONT.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON DURATION AND INTENSITY OF
PRECIPITATION. GFS CONSISTENTLY THE WETTER MODEL...BRINGING RAIN IN
QUICKER AND KEEPING IT AROUND LONGER. BUT IT IS ALSO THE WARMER
MODEL. ECM IS BEGINNING TO TREND TOWARD THE WETTER GFS WITH MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. THE ECM DOES
BRING IN REINFORCING COLD AIR LATE SATURDAY WHICH WOULD ALLOW A
CHANGE OVER TO MORE OF A WINTRY EVENT BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS. WE
WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF SNOW IN FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PARTS OF OKLAHOMA DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND CONSISTENCY. EVENT IS
STILL QUITE A WAYS OUT THERE IN TIME...BUT TRENDS WOULD SUPPORT MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE SEEN OVER FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS IN LIQUID FORM. STAY TUNED.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 260301
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
901 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES...CLOSE TO
RECENT RAP13 NUMBERS. SEVERAL NORTH CENTRAL LOCATIONS
HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE LOWER 30S AT MID EVENING.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH A RATHER
LIGHT WIND.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

SURFACE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BELOW 10 KT BY 01Z AT ALL
SITES...THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST 02-11Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE
13-16Z ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME GUSTS 20-25 KT FROM THE WEST
OR NORTHWEST.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SUBSIDE EARLY BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM
TODAY. WE HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY ANOTHER HOUR...UNTIL
5PM. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS AND RH HAVE NOT REACHED RED FLAG LEVELS
THE WIND HAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO DIFFICULT
CONTAINMENT OF ANY FIRES THAT GET STARTED. BRIEF STRETCH OF MUCH
WARMER WEATHER WILL COMMENCE TOMORROW AND LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD
WILL KEEP WILDFIRE DANGERS ELEVATED...BUT THANKFULLY IT LOOKS AS
THOUGH TODAY WILL BE BY FAR THE WINDIEST DAY...ALTHOUGH SOME
GUSTINESS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE WILDFIRE
CONCERNS...WE EXPECT A FEW DAYTIME HIGH RECORDS TO BE TIED OR
BROKEN ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COOL DOWN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND COLD FRONT.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON DURATION AND INTENSITY OF
PRECIPITATION. GFS CONSISTENTLY THE WETTER MODEL...BRINGING RAIN IN
QUICKER AND KEEPING IT AROUND LONGER. BUT IT IS ALSO THE WARMER
MODEL. ECM IS BEGINNING TO TREND TOWARD THE WETTER GFS WITH MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. THE ECM DOES
BRING IN REINFORCING COLD AIR LATE SATURDAY WHICH WOULD ALLOW A
CHANGE OVER TO MORE OF A WINTRY EVENT BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS. WE
WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF SNOW IN FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PARTS OF OKLAHOMA DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND CONSISTENCY. EVENT IS
STILL QUITE A WAYS OUT THERE IN TIME...BUT TRENDS WOULD SUPPORT MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE SEEN OVER FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS IN LIQUID FORM. STAY TUNED.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 260301
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
901 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES...CLOSE TO
RECENT RAP13 NUMBERS. SEVERAL NORTH CENTRAL LOCATIONS
HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE LOWER 30S AT MID EVENING.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH A RATHER
LIGHT WIND.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

SURFACE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BELOW 10 KT BY 01Z AT ALL
SITES...THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST 02-11Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE
13-16Z ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME GUSTS 20-25 KT FROM THE WEST
OR NORTHWEST.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SUBSIDE EARLY BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM
TODAY. WE HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY ANOTHER HOUR...UNTIL
5PM. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS AND RH HAVE NOT REACHED RED FLAG LEVELS
THE WIND HAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO DIFFICULT
CONTAINMENT OF ANY FIRES THAT GET STARTED. BRIEF STRETCH OF MUCH
WARMER WEATHER WILL COMMENCE TOMORROW AND LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD
WILL KEEP WILDFIRE DANGERS ELEVATED...BUT THANKFULLY IT LOOKS AS
THOUGH TODAY WILL BE BY FAR THE WINDIEST DAY...ALTHOUGH SOME
GUSTINESS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE WILDFIRE
CONCERNS...WE EXPECT A FEW DAYTIME HIGH RECORDS TO BE TIED OR
BROKEN ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COOL DOWN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND COLD FRONT.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON DURATION AND INTENSITY OF
PRECIPITATION. GFS CONSISTENTLY THE WETTER MODEL...BRINGING RAIN IN
QUICKER AND KEEPING IT AROUND LONGER. BUT IT IS ALSO THE WARMER
MODEL. ECM IS BEGINNING TO TREND TOWARD THE WETTER GFS WITH MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. THE ECM DOES
BRING IN REINFORCING COLD AIR LATE SATURDAY WHICH WOULD ALLOW A
CHANGE OVER TO MORE OF A WINTRY EVENT BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS. WE
WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF SNOW IN FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PARTS OF OKLAHOMA DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND CONSISTENCY. EVENT IS
STILL QUITE A WAYS OUT THERE IN TIME...BUT TRENDS WOULD SUPPORT MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE SEEN OVER FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS IN LIQUID FORM. STAY TUNED.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 252326
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
526 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

SURFACE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BELOW 10 KT BY 01Z AT ALL
SITES...THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST 02-11Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE
13-16Z ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME GUSTS 20-25 KT FROM THE WEST
OR NORTHWEST.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SUBSIDE EARLY BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM
TODAY. WE HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY ANOTHER HOUR...UNTIL
5PM. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS AND RH HAVE NOT REACHED RED FLAG LEVELS
THE WIND HAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO DIFFICULT
CONTAINMENT OF ANY FIRES THAT GET STARTED. BRIEF STRETCH OF MUCH
WARMER WEATHER WILL COMMENCE TOMORROW AND LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD
WILL KEEP WILDFIRE DANGERS ELEVATED...BUT THANKFULLY IT LOOKS AS
THOUGH TODAY WILL BE BY FAR THE WINDIEST DAY...ALTHOUGH SOME
GUSTINESS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE WILDFIRE
CONCERNS...WE EXPECT A FEW DAYTIME HIGH RECORDS TO BE TIED OR
BROKEN ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COOL DOWN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND COLD FRONT.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON DURATION AND INTENSITY OF
PRECIPITATION. GFS CONSISTENTLY THE WETTER MODEL...BRINGING RAIN IN
QUICKER AND KEEPING IT AROUND LONGER. BUT IT IS ALSO THE WARMER
MODEL. ECM IS BEGINNING TO TREND TOWARD THE WETTER GFS WITH MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. THE ECM DOES
BRING IN REINFORCING COLD AIR LATE SATURDAY WHICH WOULD ALLOW A
CHANGE OVER TO MORE OF A WINTRY EVENT BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS. WE
WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF SNOW IN FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PARTS OF OKLAHOMA DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND CONSISTENCY. EVENT IS
STILL QUITE A WAYS OUT THERE IN TIME...BUT TRENDS WOULD SUPPORT MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE SEEN OVER FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS IN LIQUID FORM. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  35  68  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         33  71  37  73 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  34  70  39  74 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           31  71  36  74 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     32  67  37  71 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         37  67  41  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17/17



000
FXUS64 KTSA 252256
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
456 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR DURING THE
EVENING. UNTIL THEN... MVFR CEILINGS 0R NEAR MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED
AT NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CURRENTLY
AFFECTING ALL SITES WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WIND GUSTS SEEM TO BE SUBSIDING JUST A BIT...GIVEN THE FREQUENCY
OF THE 40 MPH GUSTS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA HAS DIMINISHED IN THE
PAST HOUR OR SO. WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY GO AS PLANNED AT 4
PM...ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTS ABOVE 30 MPH STILL LIKELY THROUGH SUNSET.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THE LOW CLOUDINESS THAT DEVELOPED IN
RESPONSE TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO DIMINISH FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AS IT PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE
DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED
LOCATIONS.

THE BIG WARMUP BEGINS IN EARNEST TOMORROW...AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES TOMORROW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN
TODAYS...WITH PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA NEARING 70 FOR HIGHS.
WIDESPREAD HIGHS NEAR TO ABOVE 70 DEGREES WILL BE LIKELY FOR BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH WEDNESDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE PERIOD WITH THE PRE FRONTAL WARM NOSE FIRMLY IN PLACE. AT THIS
POINT...DO NOT THINK THAT RECORD HIGHS WILL BE REACHABLE.
WEDNESDAY/S RECORD HIGH IN TULSA /82 DEGREES/ IS THE HIGHEST
RECORDED JANUARY TEMPERATURE EVER IN THE CITY. FORT SMITH/S RECORD
HIGHS DURING THIS STRETCH ARE VERY NEAR 80 AS WELL. DESPITE THE
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO
PREVENT WIDESPREAD DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH AT
LEAST A LIMITED FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST INTO MID WEEK.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY...WITH ALL INDICATIONS POINTING TOWARD A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS EVEN
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

LOOKING TOWARD THE WEEKEND...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE IS IN A
BIT BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ALTHOUGH THERE
CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN HOW STRONG THE COLD AIR PRESENT WILL
BE. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND CERTAINLY THE HIGHEST QPF
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE THE BEST SOURCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD BE. A
QUICK DRYING TREND ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD WILL OCCUR AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH ANOTHER
FRONTAL SURGE...WITH THE FOLLOWING WEEK LOOKING TO BEGIN ON THE
DRY SIDE. THE FORECAST VERTICAL TEMPERATURE STRUCTURES ARE ALL
SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION...AND AT THIS
POINT MORE LIKELY TO BE SOMEWHERE IN THAT COLD RAIN...FREEZING
RAIN...AND POSSIBLY SLEET SPECTRUM. THE CURRENT DATA AND EVEN
THINKING BACK TO YESTERDAY/S DATA ARE NOT REALLY SUPPORTIVE OF A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW POTENTIAL...SO THAT IS ONE PRECIPITATION TYPE
THAT WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. STANDARD LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST CAVEATS APPLY...NAMELY EXPECT THE DETAILS TO
CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AND CONTINUE TO KEEP TRACK OF UPDATED FORECASTS
AND INFORMATION.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06







000
FXUS64 KTSA 252256
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
456 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR DURING THE
EVENING. UNTIL THEN... MVFR CEILINGS 0R NEAR MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED
AT NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CURRENTLY
AFFECTING ALL SITES WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WIND GUSTS SEEM TO BE SUBSIDING JUST A BIT...GIVEN THE FREQUENCY
OF THE 40 MPH GUSTS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA HAS DIMINISHED IN THE
PAST HOUR OR SO. WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY GO AS PLANNED AT 4
PM...ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTS ABOVE 30 MPH STILL LIKELY THROUGH SUNSET.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THE LOW CLOUDINESS THAT DEVELOPED IN
RESPONSE TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO DIMINISH FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AS IT PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE
DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED
LOCATIONS.

THE BIG WARMUP BEGINS IN EARNEST TOMORROW...AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES TOMORROW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN
TODAYS...WITH PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA NEARING 70 FOR HIGHS.
WIDESPREAD HIGHS NEAR TO ABOVE 70 DEGREES WILL BE LIKELY FOR BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH WEDNESDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE PERIOD WITH THE PRE FRONTAL WARM NOSE FIRMLY IN PLACE. AT THIS
POINT...DO NOT THINK THAT RECORD HIGHS WILL BE REACHABLE.
WEDNESDAY/S RECORD HIGH IN TULSA /82 DEGREES/ IS THE HIGHEST
RECORDED JANUARY TEMPERATURE EVER IN THE CITY. FORT SMITH/S RECORD
HIGHS DURING THIS STRETCH ARE VERY NEAR 80 AS WELL. DESPITE THE
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO
PREVENT WIDESPREAD DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH AT
LEAST A LIMITED FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST INTO MID WEEK.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY...WITH ALL INDICATIONS POINTING TOWARD A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS EVEN
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

LOOKING TOWARD THE WEEKEND...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE IS IN A
BIT BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ALTHOUGH THERE
CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN HOW STRONG THE COLD AIR PRESENT WILL
BE. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND CERTAINLY THE HIGHEST QPF
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE THE BEST SOURCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD BE. A
QUICK DRYING TREND ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD WILL OCCUR AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH ANOTHER
FRONTAL SURGE...WITH THE FOLLOWING WEEK LOOKING TO BEGIN ON THE
DRY SIDE. THE FORECAST VERTICAL TEMPERATURE STRUCTURES ARE ALL
SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION...AND AT THIS
POINT MORE LIKELY TO BE SOMEWHERE IN THAT COLD RAIN...FREEZING
RAIN...AND POSSIBLY SLEET SPECTRUM. THE CURRENT DATA AND EVEN
THINKING BACK TO YESTERDAY/S DATA ARE NOT REALLY SUPPORTIVE OF A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW POTENTIAL...SO THAT IS ONE PRECIPITATION TYPE
THAT WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. STANDARD LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST CAVEATS APPLY...NAMELY EXPECT THE DETAILS TO
CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AND CONTINUE TO KEEP TRACK OF UPDATED FORECASTS
AND INFORMATION.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 252106
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
306 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WIND GUSTS SEEM TO BE SUBSIDING JUST A BIT...GIVEN THE FREQUENCY
OF THE 40 MPH GUSTS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA HAS DIMINISHED IN THE
PAST HOUR OR SO. WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY GO AS PLANNED AT 4
PM...ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTS ABOVE 30 MPH STILL LIKELY THROUGH SUNSET.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THE LOW CLOUDINESS THAT DEVELOPED IN
RESPONSE TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO DIMINISH FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AS IT PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE
DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED
LOCATIONS.

THE BIG WARMUP BEGINS IN EARNEST TOMORROW...AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES TOMORROW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN
TODAYS...WITH PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA NEARING 70 FOR HIGHS.
WIDESPREAD HIGHS NEAR TO ABOVE 70 DEGREES WILL BE LIKELY FOR BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH WEDNESDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE PERIOD WITH THE PRE FRONTAL WARM NOSE FIRMLY IN PLACE. AT THIS
POINT...DO NOT THINK THAT RECORD HIGHS WILL BE REACHABLE.
WEDNESDAY/S RECORD HIGH IN TULSA /82 DEGREES/ IS THE HIGHEST
RECORDED JANUARY TEMPERATURE EVER IN THE CITY. FORT SMITH/S RECORD
HIGHS DURING THIS STRETCH ARE VERY NEAR 80 AS WELL. DESPITE THE
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO
PREVENT WIDESPREAD DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH AT
LEAST A LIMITED FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST INTO MID WEEK.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY...WITH ALL INDICATIONS POINTING TOWARD A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS EVEN
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

LOOKING TOWARD THE WEEKEND...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE IS IN A
BIT BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ALTHOUGH THERE
CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN HOW STRONG THE COLD AIR PRESENT WILL
BE. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND CERTAINLY THE HIGHEST QPF
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE THE BEST SOURCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD BE. A
QUICK DRYING TREND ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD WILL OCCUR AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH ANOTHER
FRONTAL SURGE...WITH THE FOLLOWING WEEK LOOKING TO BEGIN ON THE
DRY SIDE. THE FORECAST VERTICAL TEMPERATURE STRUCTURES ARE ALL
SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION...AND AT THIS
POINT MORE LIKELY TO BE SOMEWHERE IN THAT COLD RAIN...FREEZING
RAIN...AND POSSIBLY SLEET SPECTRUM. THE CURRENT DATA AND EVEN
THINKING BACK TO YESTERDAY/S DATA ARE NOT REALLY SUPPORTIVE OF A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW POTENTIAL...SO THAT IS ONE PRECIPITATION TYPE
THAT WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. STANDARD LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST CAVEATS APPLY...NAMELY EXPECT THE DETAILS TO
CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AND CONTINUE TO KEEP TRACK OF UPDATED FORECASTS
AND INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   33  68  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   33  63  40  69 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   34  68  41  71 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   27  67  32  70 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   31  57  33  66 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   32  55  37  63 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   31  66  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   29  62  34  66 /  10   0   0   0
F10   33  68  41  72 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   35  68  42  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ059-OKZ064.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....22





000
FXUS64 KTSA 252106
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
306 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WIND GUSTS SEEM TO BE SUBSIDING JUST A BIT...GIVEN THE FREQUENCY
OF THE 40 MPH GUSTS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA HAS DIMINISHED IN THE
PAST HOUR OR SO. WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY GO AS PLANNED AT 4
PM...ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTS ABOVE 30 MPH STILL LIKELY THROUGH SUNSET.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THE LOW CLOUDINESS THAT DEVELOPED IN
RESPONSE TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO DIMINISH FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AS IT PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE
DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED
LOCATIONS.

THE BIG WARMUP BEGINS IN EARNEST TOMORROW...AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES TOMORROW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN
TODAYS...WITH PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA NEARING 70 FOR HIGHS.
WIDESPREAD HIGHS NEAR TO ABOVE 70 DEGREES WILL BE LIKELY FOR BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH WEDNESDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE PERIOD WITH THE PRE FRONTAL WARM NOSE FIRMLY IN PLACE. AT THIS
POINT...DO NOT THINK THAT RECORD HIGHS WILL BE REACHABLE.
WEDNESDAY/S RECORD HIGH IN TULSA /82 DEGREES/ IS THE HIGHEST
RECORDED JANUARY TEMPERATURE EVER IN THE CITY. FORT SMITH/S RECORD
HIGHS DURING THIS STRETCH ARE VERY NEAR 80 AS WELL. DESPITE THE
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO
PREVENT WIDESPREAD DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH AT
LEAST A LIMITED FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST INTO MID WEEK.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY...WITH ALL INDICATIONS POINTING TOWARD A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS EVEN
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

LOOKING TOWARD THE WEEKEND...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE IS IN A
BIT BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ALTHOUGH THERE
CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN HOW STRONG THE COLD AIR PRESENT WILL
BE. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND CERTAINLY THE HIGHEST QPF
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE THE BEST SOURCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD BE. A
QUICK DRYING TREND ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD WILL OCCUR AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH ANOTHER
FRONTAL SURGE...WITH THE FOLLOWING WEEK LOOKING TO BEGIN ON THE
DRY SIDE. THE FORECAST VERTICAL TEMPERATURE STRUCTURES ARE ALL
SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION...AND AT THIS
POINT MORE LIKELY TO BE SOMEWHERE IN THAT COLD RAIN...FREEZING
RAIN...AND POSSIBLY SLEET SPECTRUM. THE CURRENT DATA AND EVEN
THINKING BACK TO YESTERDAY/S DATA ARE NOT REALLY SUPPORTIVE OF A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW POTENTIAL...SO THAT IS ONE PRECIPITATION TYPE
THAT WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. STANDARD LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST CAVEATS APPLY...NAMELY EXPECT THE DETAILS TO
CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AND CONTINUE TO KEEP TRACK OF UPDATED FORECASTS
AND INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   33  68  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   33  63  40  69 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   34  68  41  71 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   27  67  32  70 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   31  57  33  66 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   32  55  37  63 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   31  66  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   29  62  34  66 /  10   0   0   0
F10   33  68  41  72 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   35  68  42  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ059-OKZ064.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....22





000
FXUS64 KTSA 252106
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
306 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WIND GUSTS SEEM TO BE SUBSIDING JUST A BIT...GIVEN THE FREQUENCY
OF THE 40 MPH GUSTS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA HAS DIMINISHED IN THE
PAST HOUR OR SO. WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY GO AS PLANNED AT 4
PM...ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTS ABOVE 30 MPH STILL LIKELY THROUGH SUNSET.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THE LOW CLOUDINESS THAT DEVELOPED IN
RESPONSE TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO DIMINISH FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AS IT PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE
DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED
LOCATIONS.

THE BIG WARMUP BEGINS IN EARNEST TOMORROW...AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES TOMORROW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN
TODAYS...WITH PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA NEARING 70 FOR HIGHS.
WIDESPREAD HIGHS NEAR TO ABOVE 70 DEGREES WILL BE LIKELY FOR BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH WEDNESDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE PERIOD WITH THE PRE FRONTAL WARM NOSE FIRMLY IN PLACE. AT THIS
POINT...DO NOT THINK THAT RECORD HIGHS WILL BE REACHABLE.
WEDNESDAY/S RECORD HIGH IN TULSA /82 DEGREES/ IS THE HIGHEST
RECORDED JANUARY TEMPERATURE EVER IN THE CITY. FORT SMITH/S RECORD
HIGHS DURING THIS STRETCH ARE VERY NEAR 80 AS WELL. DESPITE THE
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO
PREVENT WIDESPREAD DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH AT
LEAST A LIMITED FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST INTO MID WEEK.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY...WITH ALL INDICATIONS POINTING TOWARD A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS EVEN
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

LOOKING TOWARD THE WEEKEND...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE IS IN A
BIT BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ALTHOUGH THERE
CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN HOW STRONG THE COLD AIR PRESENT WILL
BE. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND CERTAINLY THE HIGHEST QPF
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE THE BEST SOURCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD BE. A
QUICK DRYING TREND ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD WILL OCCUR AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH ANOTHER
FRONTAL SURGE...WITH THE FOLLOWING WEEK LOOKING TO BEGIN ON THE
DRY SIDE. THE FORECAST VERTICAL TEMPERATURE STRUCTURES ARE ALL
SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION...AND AT THIS
POINT MORE LIKELY TO BE SOMEWHERE IN THAT COLD RAIN...FREEZING
RAIN...AND POSSIBLY SLEET SPECTRUM. THE CURRENT DATA AND EVEN
THINKING BACK TO YESTERDAY/S DATA ARE NOT REALLY SUPPORTIVE OF A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW POTENTIAL...SO THAT IS ONE PRECIPITATION TYPE
THAT WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. STANDARD LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST CAVEATS APPLY...NAMELY EXPECT THE DETAILS TO
CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AND CONTINUE TO KEEP TRACK OF UPDATED FORECASTS
AND INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   33  68  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   33  63  40  69 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   34  68  41  71 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   27  67  32  70 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   31  57  33  66 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   32  55  37  63 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   31  66  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   29  62  34  66 /  10   0   0   0
F10   33  68  41  72 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   35  68  42  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ059-OKZ064.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....22





000
FXUS64 KTSA 252106
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
306 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WIND GUSTS SEEM TO BE SUBSIDING JUST A BIT...GIVEN THE FREQUENCY
OF THE 40 MPH GUSTS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA HAS DIMINISHED IN THE
PAST HOUR OR SO. WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY GO AS PLANNED AT 4
PM...ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTS ABOVE 30 MPH STILL LIKELY THROUGH SUNSET.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THE LOW CLOUDINESS THAT DEVELOPED IN
RESPONSE TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO DIMINISH FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AS IT PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE
DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED
LOCATIONS.

THE BIG WARMUP BEGINS IN EARNEST TOMORROW...AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES TOMORROW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN
TODAYS...WITH PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA NEARING 70 FOR HIGHS.
WIDESPREAD HIGHS NEAR TO ABOVE 70 DEGREES WILL BE LIKELY FOR BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH WEDNESDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE PERIOD WITH THE PRE FRONTAL WARM NOSE FIRMLY IN PLACE. AT THIS
POINT...DO NOT THINK THAT RECORD HIGHS WILL BE REACHABLE.
WEDNESDAY/S RECORD HIGH IN TULSA /82 DEGREES/ IS THE HIGHEST
RECORDED JANUARY TEMPERATURE EVER IN THE CITY. FORT SMITH/S RECORD
HIGHS DURING THIS STRETCH ARE VERY NEAR 80 AS WELL. DESPITE THE
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO
PREVENT WIDESPREAD DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH AT
LEAST A LIMITED FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST INTO MID WEEK.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY...WITH ALL INDICATIONS POINTING TOWARD A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS EVEN
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

LOOKING TOWARD THE WEEKEND...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE IS IN A
BIT BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ALTHOUGH THERE
CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN HOW STRONG THE COLD AIR PRESENT WILL
BE. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND CERTAINLY THE HIGHEST QPF
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE THE BEST SOURCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD BE. A
QUICK DRYING TREND ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD WILL OCCUR AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH ANOTHER
FRONTAL SURGE...WITH THE FOLLOWING WEEK LOOKING TO BEGIN ON THE
DRY SIDE. THE FORECAST VERTICAL TEMPERATURE STRUCTURES ARE ALL
SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION...AND AT THIS
POINT MORE LIKELY TO BE SOMEWHERE IN THAT COLD RAIN...FREEZING
RAIN...AND POSSIBLY SLEET SPECTRUM. THE CURRENT DATA AND EVEN
THINKING BACK TO YESTERDAY/S DATA ARE NOT REALLY SUPPORTIVE OF A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW POTENTIAL...SO THAT IS ONE PRECIPITATION TYPE
THAT WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. STANDARD LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST CAVEATS APPLY...NAMELY EXPECT THE DETAILS TO
CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AND CONTINUE TO KEEP TRACK OF UPDATED FORECASTS
AND INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   33  68  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   33  63  40  69 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   34  68  41  71 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   27  67  32  70 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   31  57  33  66 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   32  55  37  63 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   31  66  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   29  62  34  66 /  10   0   0   0
F10   33  68  41  72 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   35  68  42  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ059-OKZ064.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....22





000
FXUS64 KOUN 252039
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
239 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SUBSIDE EARLY BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM
TODAY. WE HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY ANOTHER HOUR...UNTIL
5PM. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS AND RH HAVE NOT REACHED RED FLAG LEVELS
THE WIND HAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO DIFFICULT
CONTAINMENT OF ANY FIRES THAT GET STARTED. BRIEF STRETCH OF MUCH
WARMER WEATHER WILL COMMENCE TOMORROW AND LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD
WILL KEEP WILDFIRE DANGERS ELEVATED...BUT THANKFULLY IT LOOKS AS
THOUGH TODAY WILL BE BY FAR THE WINDIEST DAY...ALTHOUGH SOME
GUSTINESS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE WILDFIRE
CONCERNS...WE EXPECT A FEW DAYTIME HIGH RECORDS TO BE TIED OR
BROKEN ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COOL DOWN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND COLD FRONT.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON DURATION AND INTENSITY OF
PRECIPITATION. GFS CONSISTENTLY THE WETTER MODEL...BRINGING RAIN IN
QUICKER AND KEEPING IT AROUND LONGER. BUT IT IS ALSO THE WARMER
MODEL. ECM IS BEGINNING TO TREND TOWARD THE WETTER GFS WITH MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. THE ECM DOES
BRING IN REINFORCING COLD AIR LATE SATURDAY WHICH WOULD ALLOW A
CHANGE OVER TO MORE OF A WINTRY EVENT BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS. WE
WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF SNOW IN FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PARTS OF OKLAHOMA DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND CONSISTENCY. EVENT IS
STILL QUITE A WAYS OUT THERE IN TIME...BUT TRENDS WOULD SUPPORT MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE SEEN OVER FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS IN LIQUID FORM. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  35  68  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         33  71  37  73 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  34  70  39  74 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           31  71  36  74 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     32  67  37  71 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         37  67  41  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004>030-034-
     035.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 252039
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
239 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SUBSIDE EARLY BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM
TODAY. WE HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY ANOTHER HOUR...UNTIL
5PM. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS AND RH HAVE NOT REACHED RED FLAG LEVELS
THE WIND HAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO DIFFICULT
CONTAINMENT OF ANY FIRES THAT GET STARTED. BRIEF STRETCH OF MUCH
WARMER WEATHER WILL COMMENCE TOMORROW AND LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD
WILL KEEP WILDFIRE DANGERS ELEVATED...BUT THANKFULLY IT LOOKS AS
THOUGH TODAY WILL BE BY FAR THE WINDIEST DAY...ALTHOUGH SOME
GUSTINESS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE WILDFIRE
CONCERNS...WE EXPECT A FEW DAYTIME HIGH RECORDS TO BE TIED OR
BROKEN ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COOL DOWN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND COLD FRONT.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON DURATION AND INTENSITY OF
PRECIPITATION. GFS CONSISTENTLY THE WETTER MODEL...BRINGING RAIN IN
QUICKER AND KEEPING IT AROUND LONGER. BUT IT IS ALSO THE WARMER
MODEL. ECM IS BEGINNING TO TREND TOWARD THE WETTER GFS WITH MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. THE ECM DOES
BRING IN REINFORCING COLD AIR LATE SATURDAY WHICH WOULD ALLOW A
CHANGE OVER TO MORE OF A WINTRY EVENT BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS. WE
WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF SNOW IN FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PARTS OF OKLAHOMA DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND CONSISTENCY. EVENT IS
STILL QUITE A WAYS OUT THERE IN TIME...BUT TRENDS WOULD SUPPORT MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE SEEN OVER FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS IN LIQUID FORM. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  35  68  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         33  71  37  73 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  34  70  39  74 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           31  71  36  74 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     32  67  37  71 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         37  67  41  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004>030-034-
     035.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 251735 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1135 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
25/18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 22-24Z WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN THE 35-40KT RANGE
EXPECTED FROM AROUND KOKC/KOUN UP TO KPNC. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE
QUICKLY TOWARD AND AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING AND BACK TO MORE
WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

UPDATE...
INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN OK.

DISCUSSION...
WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN OK LATE THIS
MORNING. AS MIXING CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT
SOME LOCATIONS TO BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE GUSTS NEAR 45 TO 50 MPH
ACROSS NW AND CENTRAL OK WHERE MEAN MIXED LAYER MAGNITUDES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 35 KT. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S
WILL KEEP RH CRITERIA JUST ABOVE RED FLAG CONDITIONS...BUT FIRE
SPREAD POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME. THE
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS SUNSET APPROACHES...AND DIMINISH TO
AROUND 10 MPH AFTER SUNSET. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE. THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

AVIATION...
VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL PERSIST TODAY IN THE NORTHERN 2/3
OF OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY TODAY
BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING SOUTH THROUGH OKLAHOMA. 850 MB
WINDS OVER 50KTS ARE INDICATED ON THE NAM AND GFS. A WIND ADVISORY
IS EFFECTIVE FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OK. EXTREMELY WARM
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND THE APPROACH OF
AN UPPER RIDGE ARE THE MAIN CONTRIBUTORS. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS NORMAL. THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER CUT-OFF LOW AROUND BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE PASSING OF A
MID-LATITUDE WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
AT NEXT WEEKEND. A MORE POTENT COLD AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
LATE IN THE WEEKEND, BUT THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  37  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         60  35  69  37 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  35  70  39 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           59  33  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     55  33  66  37 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         61  39  68  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004>030-034-
     035.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 251735 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1135 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
25/18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 22-24Z WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN THE 35-40KT RANGE
EXPECTED FROM AROUND KOKC/KOUN UP TO KPNC. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE
QUICKLY TOWARD AND AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING AND BACK TO MORE
WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

UPDATE...
INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN OK.

DISCUSSION...
WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN OK LATE THIS
MORNING. AS MIXING CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT
SOME LOCATIONS TO BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE GUSTS NEAR 45 TO 50 MPH
ACROSS NW AND CENTRAL OK WHERE MEAN MIXED LAYER MAGNITUDES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 35 KT. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S
WILL KEEP RH CRITERIA JUST ABOVE RED FLAG CONDITIONS...BUT FIRE
SPREAD POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME. THE
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS SUNSET APPROACHES...AND DIMINISH TO
AROUND 10 MPH AFTER SUNSET. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE. THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

AVIATION...
VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL PERSIST TODAY IN THE NORTHERN 2/3
OF OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY TODAY
BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING SOUTH THROUGH OKLAHOMA. 850 MB
WINDS OVER 50KTS ARE INDICATED ON THE NAM AND GFS. A WIND ADVISORY
IS EFFECTIVE FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OK. EXTREMELY WARM
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND THE APPROACH OF
AN UPPER RIDGE ARE THE MAIN CONTRIBUTORS. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS NORMAL. THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER CUT-OFF LOW AROUND BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE PASSING OF A
MID-LATITUDE WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
AT NEXT WEEKEND. A MORE POTENT COLD AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
LATE IN THE WEEKEND, BUT THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  37  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         60  35  69  37 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  35  70  39 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           59  33  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     55  33  66  37 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         61  39  68  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004>030-034-
     035.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 251735 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1135 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
25/18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 22-24Z WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN THE 35-40KT RANGE
EXPECTED FROM AROUND KOKC/KOUN UP TO KPNC. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE
QUICKLY TOWARD AND AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING AND BACK TO MORE
WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

UPDATE...
INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN OK.

DISCUSSION...
WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN OK LATE THIS
MORNING. AS MIXING CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT
SOME LOCATIONS TO BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE GUSTS NEAR 45 TO 50 MPH
ACROSS NW AND CENTRAL OK WHERE MEAN MIXED LAYER MAGNITUDES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 35 KT. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S
WILL KEEP RH CRITERIA JUST ABOVE RED FLAG CONDITIONS...BUT FIRE
SPREAD POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME. THE
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS SUNSET APPROACHES...AND DIMINISH TO
AROUND 10 MPH AFTER SUNSET. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE. THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

AVIATION...
VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL PERSIST TODAY IN THE NORTHERN 2/3
OF OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY TODAY
BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING SOUTH THROUGH OKLAHOMA. 850 MB
WINDS OVER 50KTS ARE INDICATED ON THE NAM AND GFS. A WIND ADVISORY
IS EFFECTIVE FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OK. EXTREMELY WARM
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND THE APPROACH OF
AN UPPER RIDGE ARE THE MAIN CONTRIBUTORS. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS NORMAL. THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER CUT-OFF LOW AROUND BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE PASSING OF A
MID-LATITUDE WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
AT NEXT WEEKEND. A MORE POTENT COLD AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
LATE IN THE WEEKEND, BUT THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  37  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         60  35  69  37 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  35  70  39 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           59  33  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     55  33  66  37 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         61  39  68  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004>030-034-
     035.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 251735 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1135 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
25/18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 22-24Z WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN THE 35-40KT RANGE
EXPECTED FROM AROUND KOKC/KOUN UP TO KPNC. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE
QUICKLY TOWARD AND AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING AND BACK TO MORE
WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

UPDATE...
INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN OK.

DISCUSSION...
WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN OK LATE THIS
MORNING. AS MIXING CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT
SOME LOCATIONS TO BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE GUSTS NEAR 45 TO 50 MPH
ACROSS NW AND CENTRAL OK WHERE MEAN MIXED LAYER MAGNITUDES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 35 KT. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S
WILL KEEP RH CRITERIA JUST ABOVE RED FLAG CONDITIONS...BUT FIRE
SPREAD POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME. THE
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS SUNSET APPROACHES...AND DIMINISH TO
AROUND 10 MPH AFTER SUNSET. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE. THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

AVIATION...
VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL PERSIST TODAY IN THE NORTHERN 2/3
OF OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY TODAY
BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING SOUTH THROUGH OKLAHOMA. 850 MB
WINDS OVER 50KTS ARE INDICATED ON THE NAM AND GFS. A WIND ADVISORY
IS EFFECTIVE FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OK. EXTREMELY WARM
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND THE APPROACH OF
AN UPPER RIDGE ARE THE MAIN CONTRIBUTORS. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS NORMAL. THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER CUT-OFF LOW AROUND BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE PASSING OF A
MID-LATITUDE WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
AT NEXT WEEKEND. A MORE POTENT COLD AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
LATE IN THE WEEKEND, BUT THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  37  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         60  35  69  37 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  35  70  39 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           59  33  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     55  33  66  37 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         61  39  68  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004>030-034-
     035.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/11




000
FXUS64 KTSA 251733
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1133 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR CONDITIONS/LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.  CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING WITH MOST LOCATIONS VFR BY LATE EVENING.  GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY
SHIFTS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
WRAP AROUND LOW CLOUDS QUICKLY SPREADING ACROSS NE OK/NW AR ON
BACKSIDE OF STRONG UPPER LOW CURRENTLY PASSING JUST NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA. A FEW AREAS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS
TO 40 MPH OUTSIDE OF THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...
HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE AROUND MID AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS ACROSS SE OK/WEST CENTRAL AR. UPDATE ALREADY SENT
FOR LATEST SHORT TERM TRENDS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ059-OKZ064.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 251733
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1133 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR CONDITIONS/LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.  CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING WITH MOST LOCATIONS VFR BY LATE EVENING.  GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY
SHIFTS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
WRAP AROUND LOW CLOUDS QUICKLY SPREADING ACROSS NE OK/NW AR ON
BACKSIDE OF STRONG UPPER LOW CURRENTLY PASSING JUST NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA. A FEW AREAS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS
TO 40 MPH OUTSIDE OF THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...
HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE AROUND MID AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS ACROSS SE OK/WEST CENTRAL AR. UPDATE ALREADY SENT
FOR LATEST SHORT TERM TRENDS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ059-OKZ064.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 251733
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1133 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR CONDITIONS/LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.  CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING WITH MOST LOCATIONS VFR BY LATE EVENING.  GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY
SHIFTS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
WRAP AROUND LOW CLOUDS QUICKLY SPREADING ACROSS NE OK/NW AR ON
BACKSIDE OF STRONG UPPER LOW CURRENTLY PASSING JUST NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA. A FEW AREAS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS
TO 40 MPH OUTSIDE OF THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...
HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE AROUND MID AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS ACROSS SE OK/WEST CENTRAL AR. UPDATE ALREADY SENT
FOR LATEST SHORT TERM TRENDS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ059-OKZ064.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 251733
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1133 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR CONDITIONS/LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.  CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING WITH MOST LOCATIONS VFR BY LATE EVENING.  GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY
SHIFTS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
WRAP AROUND LOW CLOUDS QUICKLY SPREADING ACROSS NE OK/NW AR ON
BACKSIDE OF STRONG UPPER LOW CURRENTLY PASSING JUST NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA. A FEW AREAS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS
TO 40 MPH OUTSIDE OF THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...
HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE AROUND MID AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS ACROSS SE OK/WEST CENTRAL AR. UPDATE ALREADY SENT
FOR LATEST SHORT TERM TRENDS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ059-OKZ064.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 251648
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1048 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
WRAP AROUND LOW CLOUDS QUICKLY SPREADING ACROSS NE OK/NW AR ON
BACKSIDE OF STRONG UPPER LOW CURRENTLY PASSING JUST NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA. A FEW AREAS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS
TO 40 MPH OUTSIDE OF THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...
HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE AROUND MID AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS ACROSS SE OK/WEST CENTRAL AR. UPDATE ALREADY SENT
FOR LATEST SHORT TERM TRENDS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ059-OKZ064.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 251648
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1048 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
WRAP AROUND LOW CLOUDS QUICKLY SPREADING ACROSS NE OK/NW AR ON
BACKSIDE OF STRONG UPPER LOW CURRENTLY PASSING JUST NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA. A FEW AREAS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS
TO 40 MPH OUTSIDE OF THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...
HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE AROUND MID AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS ACROSS SE OK/WEST CENTRAL AR. UPDATE ALREADY SENT
FOR LATEST SHORT TERM TRENDS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ059-OKZ064.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....22





000
FXUS64 KOUN 251640 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1040 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN OK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN OK LATE THIS
MORNING. AS MIXING CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT
SOME LOCATIONS TO BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE GUSTS NEAR 45 TO 50 MPH
ACROSS NW AND CENTRAL OK WHERE MEAN MIXED LAYER MAGNITUDES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 35 KT. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S
WILL KEEP RH CRITERIA JUST ABOVE RED FLAG CONDITIONS...BUT FIRE
SPREAD POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME. THE
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS SUNSET APPROACHES...AND DIMINISH TO
AROUND 10 MPH AFTER SUNSET. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE. THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

AVIATION...
VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL PERSIST TODAY IN THE NORTHERN 2/3
OF OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY TODAY
BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING SOUTH THROUGH OKLAHOMA. 850 MB
WINDS OVER 50KTS ARE INDICATED ON THE NAM AND GFS. A WIND ADVISORY
IS EFFECTIVE FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OK. EXTREMELY WARM
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND THE APPROACH OF
AN UPPER RIDGE ARE THE MAIN CONTRIBUTORS. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS NORMAL. THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER CUT-OFF LOW AROUND BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE PASSING OF A
MID-LATITUDE WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
AT NEXT WEEKEND. A MORE POTENT COLD AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
LATE IN THE WEEKEND, BUT THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  37  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         60  35  69  37 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  35  70  39 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           59  33  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     55  33  66  37 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         61  39  68  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004>030-034-
     035.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 251640 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1040 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN OK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN OK LATE THIS
MORNING. AS MIXING CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT
SOME LOCATIONS TO BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE GUSTS NEAR 45 TO 50 MPH
ACROSS NW AND CENTRAL OK WHERE MEAN MIXED LAYER MAGNITUDES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 35 KT. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S
WILL KEEP RH CRITERIA JUST ABOVE RED FLAG CONDITIONS...BUT FIRE
SPREAD POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME. THE
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS SUNSET APPROACHES...AND DIMINISH TO
AROUND 10 MPH AFTER SUNSET. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE. THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

AVIATION...
VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL PERSIST TODAY IN THE NORTHERN 2/3
OF OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY TODAY
BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING SOUTH THROUGH OKLAHOMA. 850 MB
WINDS OVER 50KTS ARE INDICATED ON THE NAM AND GFS. A WIND ADVISORY
IS EFFECTIVE FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OK. EXTREMELY WARM
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND THE APPROACH OF
AN UPPER RIDGE ARE THE MAIN CONTRIBUTORS. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS NORMAL. THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER CUT-OFF LOW AROUND BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE PASSING OF A
MID-LATITUDE WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
AT NEXT WEEKEND. A MORE POTENT COLD AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
LATE IN THE WEEKEND, BUT THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  37  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         60  35  69  37 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  35  70  39 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           59  33  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     55  33  66  37 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         61  39  68  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004>030-034-
     035.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 251158
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
558 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015


.AVIATION...
VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL PERIST TODAY IN THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF
OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY TODAY
BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING SOUTH THROUGH OKLAHOMA. 850 MB
WINDS OVER 50KTS ARE INDICATED ON THE NAM AND GFS. A WIND ADVISORY
IS EFFECTIVE FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OK. EXTREMELY WARM
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND THE APPROACH OF
AN UPPER RIDGE ARE THE MAIN CONTRIBUTORS. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS NORMAL. THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER CUT-OFF LOW AROUND BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE PASSING OF A
MID-LATITUDE WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
AT NEXT WEEKEND. A MORE POTENT COLD AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
LATE IN THE WEEKEND, BUT THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  37  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         60  35  69  37 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  35  70  39 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           59  33  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     58  33  66  37 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         62  39  68  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR OKZ004>030-034-035.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/09/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 251158
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
558 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015


.AVIATION...
VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL PERIST TODAY IN THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF
OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY TODAY
BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING SOUTH THROUGH OKLAHOMA. 850 MB
WINDS OVER 50KTS ARE INDICATED ON THE NAM AND GFS. A WIND ADVISORY
IS EFFECTIVE FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OK. EXTREMELY WARM
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND THE APPROACH OF
AN UPPER RIDGE ARE THE MAIN CONTRIBUTORS. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS NORMAL. THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER CUT-OFF LOW AROUND BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE PASSING OF A
MID-LATITUDE WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
AT NEXT WEEKEND. A MORE POTENT COLD AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
LATE IN THE WEEKEND, BUT THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  37  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         60  35  69  37 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  35  70  39 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           59  33  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     58  33  66  37 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         62  39  68  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR OKZ004>030-034-035.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/09/09



000
FXUS64 KTSA 251134
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
534 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ENTERING OSAGE COUNTY WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY...BRINGING GUSTY NWLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. MAY
SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER FAR NE OK/NW AR THIS MORNING...BUT
OF MORE CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASING FIRE DANGER THREAT.
TEMPERATURES AND RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA...BUT THE GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES
DIPPING BELOW 40 PERCENT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING FIRE SPREAD
POTENTIAL. PARTS OF NE OK PRIMARILY NW OF I-44 SHOULD SEE A FEW
GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 40 MPH...SO WILL PLAN ON A WIND ADVISORY FROM
MID-MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

THE COOLER WEATHER WILL ONLY LAST A DAY...AS WLY WINDS/DOWNSLOPE
CONDITIONS WILL HELP BOOST MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS ONCE AGAIN. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE LOOKS A BIT COOL...AND
HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE WARMEST NUMBERS. COULD SEE A FEW
SPOTS ACROSS ERN OK PUSHING 70F FOR A HIGH. TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
LOOKING EVEN WARMER UNDER MID-LEVEL RIDGING CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS
BOTH DAYS TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR NW AR/FAR ERN
OK...WITH LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF ERN OK. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
A FEW LOCATIONS WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 PUSH THE MID 70S ON TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING
TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING THE
ACTIVE/AMPLIFIED FLOW NEXT WEEKEND...WITH CONFIDENCE REMAINING VERY
LOW CONCERNING RETURN MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION/PRECIPITATION TYPE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GFS HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT BRINGING SRN
STREAM MOISTURE INTO AT LEAST THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA LATER FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH IT/S THERMAL PROFILES ARE A BIT WARMER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE A RATHER CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH WITH POPS...AS ECMWF ALSO REMAINS CONSISTENT KEEPING THE
BETTER MOISTURE S OF THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...ANY WINTRY
PRECIPITATION FOR NEXT WEEKEND APPEARS LIGHT...BUT WE`LL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND FINE TUNE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 4 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-
     OKZ059-OKZ064.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 251134
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
534 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ENTERING OSAGE COUNTY WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY...BRINGING GUSTY NWLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. MAY
SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER FAR NE OK/NW AR THIS MORNING...BUT
OF MORE CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASING FIRE DANGER THREAT.
TEMPERATURES AND RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA...BUT THE GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES
DIPPING BELOW 40 PERCENT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING FIRE SPREAD
POTENTIAL. PARTS OF NE OK PRIMARILY NW OF I-44 SHOULD SEE A FEW
GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 40 MPH...SO WILL PLAN ON A WIND ADVISORY FROM
MID-MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

THE COOLER WEATHER WILL ONLY LAST A DAY...AS WLY WINDS/DOWNSLOPE
CONDITIONS WILL HELP BOOST MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS ONCE AGAIN. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE LOOKS A BIT COOL...AND
HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE WARMEST NUMBERS. COULD SEE A FEW
SPOTS ACROSS ERN OK PUSHING 70F FOR A HIGH. TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
LOOKING EVEN WARMER UNDER MID-LEVEL RIDGING CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS
BOTH DAYS TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR NW AR/FAR ERN
OK...WITH LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF ERN OK. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
A FEW LOCATIONS WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 PUSH THE MID 70S ON TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING
TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING THE
ACTIVE/AMPLIFIED FLOW NEXT WEEKEND...WITH CONFIDENCE REMAINING VERY
LOW CONCERNING RETURN MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION/PRECIPITATION TYPE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GFS HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT BRINGING SRN
STREAM MOISTURE INTO AT LEAST THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA LATER FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH IT/S THERMAL PROFILES ARE A BIT WARMER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE A RATHER CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH WITH POPS...AS ECMWF ALSO REMAINS CONSISTENT KEEPING THE
BETTER MOISTURE S OF THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...ANY WINTRY
PRECIPITATION FOR NEXT WEEKEND APPEARS LIGHT...BUT WE`LL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND FINE TUNE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 4 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-
     OKZ059-OKZ064.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 251134
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
534 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ENTERING OSAGE COUNTY WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY...BRINGING GUSTY NWLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. MAY
SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER FAR NE OK/NW AR THIS MORNING...BUT
OF MORE CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASING FIRE DANGER THREAT.
TEMPERATURES AND RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA...BUT THE GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES
DIPPING BELOW 40 PERCENT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING FIRE SPREAD
POTENTIAL. PARTS OF NE OK PRIMARILY NW OF I-44 SHOULD SEE A FEW
GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 40 MPH...SO WILL PLAN ON A WIND ADVISORY FROM
MID-MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

THE COOLER WEATHER WILL ONLY LAST A DAY...AS WLY WINDS/DOWNSLOPE
CONDITIONS WILL HELP BOOST MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS ONCE AGAIN. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE LOOKS A BIT COOL...AND
HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE WARMEST NUMBERS. COULD SEE A FEW
SPOTS ACROSS ERN OK PUSHING 70F FOR A HIGH. TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
LOOKING EVEN WARMER UNDER MID-LEVEL RIDGING CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS
BOTH DAYS TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR NW AR/FAR ERN
OK...WITH LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF ERN OK. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
A FEW LOCATIONS WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 PUSH THE MID 70S ON TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING
TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING THE
ACTIVE/AMPLIFIED FLOW NEXT WEEKEND...WITH CONFIDENCE REMAINING VERY
LOW CONCERNING RETURN MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION/PRECIPITATION TYPE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GFS HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT BRINGING SRN
STREAM MOISTURE INTO AT LEAST THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA LATER FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH IT/S THERMAL PROFILES ARE A BIT WARMER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE A RATHER CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH WITH POPS...AS ECMWF ALSO REMAINS CONSISTENT KEEPING THE
BETTER MOISTURE S OF THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...ANY WINTRY
PRECIPITATION FOR NEXT WEEKEND APPEARS LIGHT...BUT WE`LL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND FINE TUNE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 4 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-
     OKZ059-OKZ064.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 251134
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
534 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ENTERING OSAGE COUNTY WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY...BRINGING GUSTY NWLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. MAY
SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER FAR NE OK/NW AR THIS MORNING...BUT
OF MORE CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASING FIRE DANGER THREAT.
TEMPERATURES AND RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA...BUT THE GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES
DIPPING BELOW 40 PERCENT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING FIRE SPREAD
POTENTIAL. PARTS OF NE OK PRIMARILY NW OF I-44 SHOULD SEE A FEW
GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 40 MPH...SO WILL PLAN ON A WIND ADVISORY FROM
MID-MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

THE COOLER WEATHER WILL ONLY LAST A DAY...AS WLY WINDS/DOWNSLOPE
CONDITIONS WILL HELP BOOST MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS ONCE AGAIN. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE LOOKS A BIT COOL...AND
HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE WARMEST NUMBERS. COULD SEE A FEW
SPOTS ACROSS ERN OK PUSHING 70F FOR A HIGH. TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
LOOKING EVEN WARMER UNDER MID-LEVEL RIDGING CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS
BOTH DAYS TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR NW AR/FAR ERN
OK...WITH LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF ERN OK. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
A FEW LOCATIONS WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 PUSH THE MID 70S ON TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING
TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING THE
ACTIVE/AMPLIFIED FLOW NEXT WEEKEND...WITH CONFIDENCE REMAINING VERY
LOW CONCERNING RETURN MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION/PRECIPITATION TYPE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GFS HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT BRINGING SRN
STREAM MOISTURE INTO AT LEAST THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA LATER FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH IT/S THERMAL PROFILES ARE A BIT WARMER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE A RATHER CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH WITH POPS...AS ECMWF ALSO REMAINS CONSISTENT KEEPING THE
BETTER MOISTURE S OF THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...ANY WINTRY
PRECIPITATION FOR NEXT WEEKEND APPEARS LIGHT...BUT WE`LL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND FINE TUNE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 4 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-
     OKZ059-OKZ064.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10






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