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000
FXUS64 KOUN 280454
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1154 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
EARLIER RA/TSRA HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED OVER W OK. SHORT-RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BEFORE
SUNRISE IN W OK...BUT IT IS HARD TO SAY WHETHER THE CHAOTIC
DISTRIBUTION OF MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL ACTUALLY PRODUCE ANY
FURTHER RA TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT RA/TSRA
WILL BREAK OUT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF A SUBSTANTIAL
STORM SYSTEM...AND GENERALLY SPREAD FROM W TO E. BY 06Z TOMORROW
NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL REACH OUR EASTERN TAF SITES:
KPNC...KOKC...KOUN...AND RA WILL REMAIN LIKELY IN THE W.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

UPDATE...
AREA OF RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A WEAKENING/DISSIPATION PHASE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OUT IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE TO
MAKE WESTERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS OVERNIGHT. LOWER POPS FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD LOOK FINE.

TEMPS WERE LOWERED A BIT ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WHERE RAIN-COOLED AIR WAS ALREADY NEAR FORECAST LOWS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  94  71  89 /  10  30  50  50
HOBART OK         73  93  70  90 /  20  50  60  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  97  74  91 /  10  30  40  50
GAGE OK           70  88  66  88 / 100  60  60  40
PONCA CITY OK     72  94  71  87 /  10  30  50  50
DURANT OK         72  94  74  92 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/23/23



000
FXUS64 KOUN 280454
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1154 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
EARLIER RA/TSRA HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED OVER W OK. SHORT-RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BEFORE
SUNRISE IN W OK...BUT IT IS HARD TO SAY WHETHER THE CHAOTIC
DISTRIBUTION OF MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL ACTUALLY PRODUCE ANY
FURTHER RA TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT RA/TSRA
WILL BREAK OUT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF A SUBSTANTIAL
STORM SYSTEM...AND GENERALLY SPREAD FROM W TO E. BY 06Z TOMORROW
NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL REACH OUR EASTERN TAF SITES:
KPNC...KOKC...KOUN...AND RA WILL REMAIN LIKELY IN THE W.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

UPDATE...
AREA OF RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A WEAKENING/DISSIPATION PHASE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OUT IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE TO
MAKE WESTERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS OVERNIGHT. LOWER POPS FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD LOOK FINE.

TEMPS WERE LOWERED A BIT ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WHERE RAIN-COOLED AIR WAS ALREADY NEAR FORECAST LOWS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  94  71  89 /  10  30  50  50
HOBART OK         73  93  70  90 /  20  50  60  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  97  74  91 /  10  30  40  50
GAGE OK           70  88  66  88 / 100  60  60  40
PONCA CITY OK     72  94  71  87 /  10  30  50  50
DURANT OK         72  94  74  92 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/23/23



000
FXUS64 KOUN 280454
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1154 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
EARLIER RA/TSRA HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED OVER W OK. SHORT-RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BEFORE
SUNRISE IN W OK...BUT IT IS HARD TO SAY WHETHER THE CHAOTIC
DISTRIBUTION OF MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL ACTUALLY PRODUCE ANY
FURTHER RA TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT RA/TSRA
WILL BREAK OUT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF A SUBSTANTIAL
STORM SYSTEM...AND GENERALLY SPREAD FROM W TO E. BY 06Z TOMORROW
NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL REACH OUR EASTERN TAF SITES:
KPNC...KOKC...KOUN...AND RA WILL REMAIN LIKELY IN THE W.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

UPDATE...
AREA OF RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A WEAKENING/DISSIPATION PHASE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OUT IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE TO
MAKE WESTERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS OVERNIGHT. LOWER POPS FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD LOOK FINE.

TEMPS WERE LOWERED A BIT ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WHERE RAIN-COOLED AIR WAS ALREADY NEAR FORECAST LOWS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  94  71  89 /  10  30  50  50
HOBART OK         73  93  70  90 /  20  50  60  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  97  74  91 /  10  30  40  50
GAGE OK           70  88  66  88 / 100  60  60  40
PONCA CITY OK     72  94  71  87 /  10  30  50  50
DURANT OK         72  94  74  92 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/23/23



000
FXUS64 KOUN 280454
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1154 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
EARLIER RA/TSRA HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED OVER W OK. SHORT-RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BEFORE
SUNRISE IN W OK...BUT IT IS HARD TO SAY WHETHER THE CHAOTIC
DISTRIBUTION OF MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL ACTUALLY PRODUCE ANY
FURTHER RA TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT RA/TSRA
WILL BREAK OUT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF A SUBSTANTIAL
STORM SYSTEM...AND GENERALLY SPREAD FROM W TO E. BY 06Z TOMORROW
NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL REACH OUR EASTERN TAF SITES:
KPNC...KOKC...KOUN...AND RA WILL REMAIN LIKELY IN THE W.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

UPDATE...
AREA OF RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A WEAKENING/DISSIPATION PHASE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OUT IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE TO
MAKE WESTERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS OVERNIGHT. LOWER POPS FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD LOOK FINE.

TEMPS WERE LOWERED A BIT ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WHERE RAIN-COOLED AIR WAS ALREADY NEAR FORECAST LOWS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  94  71  89 /  10  30  50  50
HOBART OK         73  93  70  90 /  20  50  60  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  97  74  91 /  10  30  40  50
GAGE OK           70  88  66  88 / 100  60  60  40
PONCA CITY OK     72  94  71  87 /  10  30  50  50
DURANT OK         72  94  74  92 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/23/23


  [top]

000
FXUS64 KTSA 280453
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1153 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THU AFTER 18Z BUT COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN FORECAST. MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS E OK JUST BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 844 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS...FOR THE MOST PART...DISSIPATED THIS
EVENING. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED WITH NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14







000
FXUS64 KTSA 280453
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1153 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THU AFTER 18Z BUT COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN FORECAST. MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS E OK JUST BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 844 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS...FOR THE MOST PART...DISSIPATED THIS
EVENING. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED WITH NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14








000
FXUS64 KOUN 280255
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
955 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
AREA OF RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A WEAKENING/DISSIPATION PHASE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OUT IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE TO
MAKE WESTERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS OVERNIGHT. LOWER POPS FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD LOOK FINE.

TEMPS WERE LOWERED A BIT ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WHERE RAIN-COOLED AIR WAS ALREADY NEAR FORECAST LOWS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  94  71  89 /  10  30  50  50
HOBART OK         73  93  70  90 /  20  50  60  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  97  74  91 /  10  30  40  50
GAGE OK           70  88  66  88 / 100  60  60  40
PONCA CITY OK     72  94  71  87 /  10  30  50  50
DURANT OK         72  94  74  92 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/23



000
FXUS64 KTSA 280144
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
844 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS...FOR THE MOST PART...DISSIPATED THIS
EVENING. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED WITH NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12







000
FXUS64 KOUN 272329
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
629 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN...SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR ALONG THE W EDGE OF OK THROUGH
THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE NIGHT. THIS TIME...HOWEVER...A
LARGER STORM SYSTEM IS APPROACHING FROM THE W...AND THE CHANCE FOR
SHRA/TSRA WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD SLOWLY E WITH TIME. THE
TAFS INDICATE WHEN THE SHRA/TSRA WILL BE MOST LIKELY...BUT DO NOT
PRECLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS AT OTHER TIMES. THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN/STORMS WILL GENERALLY INCREASE GRADUALLY FROM W TO E FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...EXCEPT IN AND
NEAR TSRA AND SHRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN INCOMING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT REMAINS THE HIGHLIGHT OF
THIS FORECAST.

KEPT LOW TO MODERATE POPS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO GIVE WAY.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN EVENT WONT BE HERE TILL TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL BE CUT OFF IN
THE 80S WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION EXPERIENCES ONE LAST DAY OF MID
90S.

CONVECTION SHOULD SET UP IN ONE OR MORE BANDS TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT INCHES ITS WAY EASTWARD. NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA CONTINUE TO LOOK THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY...LEAVING THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH
RANGE.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP FOR A
FEW DAYS. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER FRONT COMING IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT AS TO HOW FAR
SOUTH IT WILL MAKE IT. KEEPING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LOW POPS IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY NIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION
ANYTHING AFTER THAT YET.

DAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  94  71  89 /  10  30  50  50
HOBART OK         73  93  70  90 /  20  50  60  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  97  74  91 /  10  30  40  50
GAGE OK           72  88  66  88 /  60  60  60  40
PONCA CITY OK     73  94  71  87 /  10  30  50  50
DURANT OK         72  94  74  92 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 272329
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
629 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN...SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR ALONG THE W EDGE OF OK THROUGH
THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE NIGHT. THIS TIME...HOWEVER...A
LARGER STORM SYSTEM IS APPROACHING FROM THE W...AND THE CHANCE FOR
SHRA/TSRA WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD SLOWLY E WITH TIME. THE
TAFS INDICATE WHEN THE SHRA/TSRA WILL BE MOST LIKELY...BUT DO NOT
PRECLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS AT OTHER TIMES. THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN/STORMS WILL GENERALLY INCREASE GRADUALLY FROM W TO E FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...EXCEPT IN AND
NEAR TSRA AND SHRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN INCOMING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT REMAINS THE HIGHLIGHT OF
THIS FORECAST.

KEPT LOW TO MODERATE POPS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO GIVE WAY.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN EVENT WONT BE HERE TILL TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL BE CUT OFF IN
THE 80S WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION EXPERIENCES ONE LAST DAY OF MID
90S.

CONVECTION SHOULD SET UP IN ONE OR MORE BANDS TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT INCHES ITS WAY EASTWARD. NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA CONTINUE TO LOOK THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY...LEAVING THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH
RANGE.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP FOR A
FEW DAYS. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER FRONT COMING IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT AS TO HOW FAR
SOUTH IT WILL MAKE IT. KEEPING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LOW POPS IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY NIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION
ANYTHING AFTER THAT YET.

DAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  94  71  89 /  10  30  50  50
HOBART OK         73  93  70  90 /  20  50  60  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  97  74  91 /  10  30  40  50
GAGE OK           72  88  66  88 /  60  60  60  40
PONCA CITY OK     73  94  71  87 /  10  30  50  50
DURANT OK         72  94  74  92 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 272329
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
629 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN...SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR ALONG THE W EDGE OF OK THROUGH
THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE NIGHT. THIS TIME...HOWEVER...A
LARGER STORM SYSTEM IS APPROACHING FROM THE W...AND THE CHANCE FOR
SHRA/TSRA WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD SLOWLY E WITH TIME. THE
TAFS INDICATE WHEN THE SHRA/TSRA WILL BE MOST LIKELY...BUT DO NOT
PRECLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS AT OTHER TIMES. THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN/STORMS WILL GENERALLY INCREASE GRADUALLY FROM W TO E FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...EXCEPT IN AND
NEAR TSRA AND SHRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN INCOMING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT REMAINS THE HIGHLIGHT OF
THIS FORECAST.

KEPT LOW TO MODERATE POPS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO GIVE WAY.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN EVENT WONT BE HERE TILL TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL BE CUT OFF IN
THE 80S WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION EXPERIENCES ONE LAST DAY OF MID
90S.

CONVECTION SHOULD SET UP IN ONE OR MORE BANDS TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT INCHES ITS WAY EASTWARD. NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA CONTINUE TO LOOK THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY...LEAVING THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH
RANGE.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP FOR A
FEW DAYS. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER FRONT COMING IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT AS TO HOW FAR
SOUTH IT WILL MAKE IT. KEEPING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LOW POPS IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY NIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION
ANYTHING AFTER THAT YET.

DAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  94  71  89 /  10  30  50  50
HOBART OK         73  93  70  90 /  20  50  60  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  97  74  91 /  10  30  40  50
GAGE OK           72  88  66  88 /  60  60  60  40
PONCA CITY OK     73  94  71  87 /  10  30  50  50
DURANT OK         72  94  74  92 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 272329
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
629 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN...SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR ALONG THE W EDGE OF OK THROUGH
THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE NIGHT. THIS TIME...HOWEVER...A
LARGER STORM SYSTEM IS APPROACHING FROM THE W...AND THE CHANCE FOR
SHRA/TSRA WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD SLOWLY E WITH TIME. THE
TAFS INDICATE WHEN THE SHRA/TSRA WILL BE MOST LIKELY...BUT DO NOT
PRECLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS AT OTHER TIMES. THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN/STORMS WILL GENERALLY INCREASE GRADUALLY FROM W TO E FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...EXCEPT IN AND
NEAR TSRA AND SHRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN INCOMING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT REMAINS THE HIGHLIGHT OF
THIS FORECAST.

KEPT LOW TO MODERATE POPS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO GIVE WAY.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN EVENT WONT BE HERE TILL TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL BE CUT OFF IN
THE 80S WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION EXPERIENCES ONE LAST DAY OF MID
90S.

CONVECTION SHOULD SET UP IN ONE OR MORE BANDS TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT INCHES ITS WAY EASTWARD. NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA CONTINUE TO LOOK THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY...LEAVING THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH
RANGE.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP FOR A
FEW DAYS. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER FRONT COMING IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT AS TO HOW FAR
SOUTH IT WILL MAKE IT. KEEPING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LOW POPS IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY NIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION
ANYTHING AFTER THAT YET.

DAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  94  71  89 /  10  30  50  50
HOBART OK         73  93  70  90 /  20  50  60  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  97  74  91 /  10  30  40  50
GAGE OK           72  88  66  88 /  60  60  60  40
PONCA CITY OK     73  94  71  87 /  10  30  50  50
DURANT OK         72  94  74  92 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/23/23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 272311
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
611 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FEW
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 03Z THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN
THU AFTER 18Z BUT COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER WAVE..SHOWN NICELY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE CENTERED
OVER EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO WILL BE PRIMARY
CONCERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ANOTHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT...AND HOT ON THURSDAY BEFORE
UPPER WAVE IMPACTS OUR REGION. UPPER WAVE BRINGS PRECIP
CHANCES  LATE THURSDAY... AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AS H500
ENERGY COMBINES WITH AMPLE 1.50-1.75 PRECIPITABLE WATER.
RAISED POPS FOR FRIDAY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED  IF RAISED MORE IN LATER FORECASTS.

MODELS ONLY TEASE FORECAST AREA WITH AN CHANCE FOR COOL
FRONT FAR NORTHEAST OK MONDAY.

SOUTHERN END OF A BROAD WAVE ROTATING FROM THE COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA  INTO THE CANADIAN  PRAIRIE EARLY  NEXT
WEEK TO KEEP PRECIP  CHANCES THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK...
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS...CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PARKED NORTH OF OUR REGION.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14







000
FXUS64 KTSA 272311
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
611 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FEW
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 03Z THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN
THU AFTER 18Z BUT COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER WAVE..SHOWN NICELY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE CENTERED
OVER EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO WILL BE PRIMARY
CONCERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ANOTHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT...AND HOT ON THURSDAY BEFORE
UPPER WAVE IMPACTS OUR REGION. UPPER WAVE BRINGS PRECIP
CHANCES  LATE THURSDAY... AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AS H500
ENERGY COMBINES WITH AMPLE 1.50-1.75 PRECIPITABLE WATER.
RAISED POPS FOR FRIDAY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED  IF RAISED MORE IN LATER FORECASTS.

MODELS ONLY TEASE FORECAST AREA WITH AN CHANCE FOR COOL
FRONT FAR NORTHEAST OK MONDAY.

SOUTHERN END OF A BROAD WAVE ROTATING FROM THE COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA  INTO THE CANADIAN  PRAIRIE EARLY  NEXT
WEEK TO KEEP PRECIP  CHANCES THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK...
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS...CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PARKED NORTH OF OUR REGION.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14








000
FXUS64 KTSA 272123
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
423 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER WAVE..SHOWN NICELY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE CENTERED
OVER EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO WILL BE PRIMARY
CONCERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ANOTHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT...AND HOT ON THURSDAY BEFORE
UPPER WAVE IMPACTS OUR REGION. UPPER WAVE BRINGS PRECIP
CHANCES  LATE THURSDAY... AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AS H500
ENERGY COMBINES WITH AMPLE 1.50-1.75 PRECIPITABLE WATER.
RAISED POPS FOR FRIDAY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED  IF RAISED MORE IN LATER FORECASTS.

MODELS ONLY TEASE FORECAST AREA WITH AN CHANCE FOR COOL
FRONT FAR NORTHEAST OK MONDAY.

SOUTHERN END OF A BROAD WAVE ROTATING FROM THE COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA  INTO THE CANADIAN  PRAIRIE EARLY  NEXT
WEEK TO KEEP PRECIP  CHANCES THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK...
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS...CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PARKED NORTH OF OUR REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  95  73  87 /   0   0  50  70
FSM   73  94  73  88 /   0   0  20  60
MLC   71  92  74  88 /   0   0  20  60
BVO   69  95  68  86 /   0   0  50  70
FYV   66  90  66  82 /  10   0  20  60
BYV   69  91  68  83 /   0   0  20  40
MKO   69  93  72  84 /   0   0  20  60
MIO   69  94  71  84 /  10   0  20  60
F10   71  93  71  87 /   0   0  40  70
HHW   70  93  73  90 /   0   0  20  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....21





000
FXUS64 KTSA 272123
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
423 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER WAVE..SHOWN NICELY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE CENTERED
OVER EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO WILL BE PRIMARY
CONCERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ANOTHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT...AND HOT ON THURSDAY BEFORE
UPPER WAVE IMPACTS OUR REGION. UPPER WAVE BRINGS PRECIP
CHANCES  LATE THURSDAY... AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AS H500
ENERGY COMBINES WITH AMPLE 1.50-1.75 PRECIPITABLE WATER.
RAISED POPS FOR FRIDAY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED  IF RAISED MORE IN LATER FORECASTS.

MODELS ONLY TEASE FORECAST AREA WITH AN CHANCE FOR COOL
FRONT FAR NORTHEAST OK MONDAY.

SOUTHERN END OF A BROAD WAVE ROTATING FROM THE COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA  INTO THE CANADIAN  PRAIRIE EARLY  NEXT
WEEK TO KEEP PRECIP  CHANCES THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK...
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS...CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PARKED NORTH OF OUR REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  95  73  87 /   0   0  50  70
FSM   73  94  73  88 /   0   0  20  60
MLC   71  92  74  88 /   0   0  20  60
BVO   69  95  68  86 /   0   0  50  70
FYV   66  90  66  82 /  10   0  20  60
BYV   69  91  68  83 /   0   0  20  40
MKO   69  93  72  84 /   0   0  20  60
MIO   69  94  71  84 /  10   0  20  60
F10   71  93  71  87 /   0   0  40  70
HHW   70  93  73  90 /   0   0  20  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....21






000
FXUS64 KOUN 271944
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
244 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN INCOMING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT REMAINS THE HIGHLIGHT OF
THIS FORECAST.

KEPT LOW TO MODERATE POPS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO GIVE WAY.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN EVENT WONT BE HERE TILL TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL BE CUT OFF IN
THE 80S WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION EXPERIENCES ONE LAST DAY OF MID
90S.

CONVECTION SHOULD SET UP IN ONE OR MORE BANDS TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT INCHES ITS WAY EASTWARD. NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA CONTINUE TO LOOK THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY...LEAVING THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH
RANGE.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP FOR A
FEW DAYS. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER FRONT COMING IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT AS TO HOW FAR
SOUTH IT WILL MAKE IT. KEEPING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LOW POPS IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY NIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION
ANYTHING AFTER THAT YET.

DAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  94  71  89 /  10  30  50  50
HOBART OK         73  93  70  90 /  20  50  60  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  97  74  91 /  10  30  40  50
GAGE OK           72  88  66  88 /  50  60  60  40
PONCA CITY OK     73  94  71  87 /  10  30  50  50
DURANT OK         72  94  74  92 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/14




000
FXUS64 KOUN 271944
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
244 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN INCOMING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT REMAINS THE HIGHLIGHT OF
THIS FORECAST.

KEPT LOW TO MODERATE POPS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO GIVE WAY.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN EVENT WONT BE HERE TILL TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL BE CUT OFF IN
THE 80S WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION EXPERIENCES ONE LAST DAY OF MID
90S.

CONVECTION SHOULD SET UP IN ONE OR MORE BANDS TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT INCHES ITS WAY EASTWARD. NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA CONTINUE TO LOOK THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY...LEAVING THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH
RANGE.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP FOR A
FEW DAYS. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER FRONT COMING IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT AS TO HOW FAR
SOUTH IT WILL MAKE IT. KEEPING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LOW POPS IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY NIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION
ANYTHING AFTER THAT YET.

DAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  94  71  89 /  10  30  50  50
HOBART OK         73  93  70  90 /  20  50  60  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  97  74  91 /  10  30  40  50
GAGE OK           72  88  66  88 /  50  60  60  40
PONCA CITY OK     73  94  71  87 /  10  30  50  50
DURANT OK         72  94  74  92 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/14




000
FXUS64 KOUN 271944
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
244 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN INCOMING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT REMAINS THE HIGHLIGHT OF
THIS FORECAST.

KEPT LOW TO MODERATE POPS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO GIVE WAY.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN EVENT WONT BE HERE TILL TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL BE CUT OFF IN
THE 80S WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION EXPERIENCES ONE LAST DAY OF MID
90S.

CONVECTION SHOULD SET UP IN ONE OR MORE BANDS TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT INCHES ITS WAY EASTWARD. NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA CONTINUE TO LOOK THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY...LEAVING THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH
RANGE.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP FOR A
FEW DAYS. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER FRONT COMING IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT AS TO HOW FAR
SOUTH IT WILL MAKE IT. KEEPING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LOW POPS IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY NIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION
ANYTHING AFTER THAT YET.

DAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  94  71  89 /  10  30  50  50
HOBART OK         73  93  70  90 /  20  50  60  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  97  74  91 /  10  30  40  50
GAGE OK           72  88  66  88 /  50  60  60  40
PONCA CITY OK     73  94  71  87 /  10  30  50  50
DURANT OK         72  94  74  92 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/14




000
FXUS64 KOUN 271944
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
244 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN INCOMING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT REMAINS THE HIGHLIGHT OF
THIS FORECAST.

KEPT LOW TO MODERATE POPS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO GIVE WAY.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN EVENT WONT BE HERE TILL TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL BE CUT OFF IN
THE 80S WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION EXPERIENCES ONE LAST DAY OF MID
90S.

CONVECTION SHOULD SET UP IN ONE OR MORE BANDS TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT INCHES ITS WAY EASTWARD. NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA CONTINUE TO LOOK THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY...LEAVING THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH
RANGE.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP FOR A
FEW DAYS. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER FRONT COMING IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT AS TO HOW FAR
SOUTH IT WILL MAKE IT. KEEPING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LOW POPS IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY NIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION
ANYTHING AFTER THAT YET.

DAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  94  71  89 /  10  30  50  50
HOBART OK         73  93  70  90 /  20  50  60  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  97  74  91 /  10  30  40  50
GAGE OK           72  88  66  88 /  50  60  60  40
PONCA CITY OK     73  94  71  87 /  10  30  50  50
DURANT OK         72  94  74  92 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/14




000
FXUS64 KOUN 271741
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1241 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WITH ONGOING SHOWERS
NORTHWEST... HAVE KEPT TEMPO GROUPS AT KGAG AND KWWR.
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AT KCSM AND KHBR /WITH LOWER CHANCES ELSEWHERE/ BUT PROBABILITIES
ARE NOT SUFFICIENT TO INCLUDE A TEMPO OR PROB30 GROUP AT THIS
TIME... ALTHOUGH THAT MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AFTER SUNRISE
TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

UPDATE...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN/DECREASE ACROSS NORTHWEST
PARTS OF THE FA THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN NW PARTS OF THE FA.
DID ADD A MENTION OF ISOLATED ACTIVITY WITH 10 PERCENT POPS IN
OTHER PARTS OF THE CWA WHERE STRONG SFC HEATING MAY CAUSE A STORM
OR TWO TO DEVELOP... MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY. LOWERED MAX TEMPS IN
NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE FA WHERE EARLIER RAIN AND CLOUDS ARE
SLOWING DOWN THE WARM UP. UPDATES OUT SOON.

MAXWELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER NORTHWESTERN TAF SITES KGAG
AND KWWR...WHERE A MORNING STORM COMPLEX MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO
MVFR/IFR. SHRA/TSRA SHOULD DIMINISH BY AROUND 15Z...WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
LATER TODAY OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. THESE WILL LIKELY
AFFECT KGAG/KWWR ONCE AGAIN IN THE 00Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME. GUSTY
WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE HIGHLIGHTS OVER THE COMING WEEK REMAIN UNCHANGED. EXPECT
ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS HOT AS YESTERDAY OR
THE DAY BEFORE. MAXIMUM AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 90S
TO LOW 100S. TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILARLY WARM ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FURTHER WEST...WHERE CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE.

A LARGE UPPER STORM SYSTEM...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLOW MOVING
FRONT...IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL
BEGIN TO FEEL THE AFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHERE ONE OR TWO SLOW MOVING BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY
DEVELOP. RAIN CHANCES OVER NORTHERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL BE GREATEST FROM EARLY
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS MOST AREAS WILL
RECEIVE SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL...THOUGH AREAS ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LOOK TO GET IN ON THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS...WHERE UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES MAY FALL BETWEEN THURSDAY AND
SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE...A HALF INCH TO AN INCH LOOKS POSSIBLE.
DESPITE THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...IT STILL
APPEARS ANY THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING WILL
REMAIN LOCALIZED. PERHAPS THE MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACT WILL BE THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES...AS HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE SYSTEM WILL PEEL AWAY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH RAIN
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. THEREAFTER...AT LEAST A BRIEF WARM AND
DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...FRONTAL TIMING AND LOCATION REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT KEEP FORECAST DRY FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  72  94  72 /  10  10  30  50
HOBART OK         98  73  93  71 /  10  20  50  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  74  97  74 /  10  10  30  40
GAGE OK           89  72  87  67 /  60  50  60  60
PONCA CITY OK     97  73  94  72 /  10  10  30  50
DURANT OK         95  73  94  74 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 271741
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1241 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WITH ONGOING SHOWERS
NORTHWEST... HAVE KEPT TEMPO GROUPS AT KGAG AND KWWR.
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AT KCSM AND KHBR /WITH LOWER CHANCES ELSEWHERE/ BUT PROBABILITIES
ARE NOT SUFFICIENT TO INCLUDE A TEMPO OR PROB30 GROUP AT THIS
TIME... ALTHOUGH THAT MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AFTER SUNRISE
TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

UPDATE...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN/DECREASE ACROSS NORTHWEST
PARTS OF THE FA THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN NW PARTS OF THE FA.
DID ADD A MENTION OF ISOLATED ACTIVITY WITH 10 PERCENT POPS IN
OTHER PARTS OF THE CWA WHERE STRONG SFC HEATING MAY CAUSE A STORM
OR TWO TO DEVELOP... MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY. LOWERED MAX TEMPS IN
NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE FA WHERE EARLIER RAIN AND CLOUDS ARE
SLOWING DOWN THE WARM UP. UPDATES OUT SOON.

MAXWELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER NORTHWESTERN TAF SITES KGAG
AND KWWR...WHERE A MORNING STORM COMPLEX MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO
MVFR/IFR. SHRA/TSRA SHOULD DIMINISH BY AROUND 15Z...WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
LATER TODAY OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. THESE WILL LIKELY
AFFECT KGAG/KWWR ONCE AGAIN IN THE 00Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME. GUSTY
WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE HIGHLIGHTS OVER THE COMING WEEK REMAIN UNCHANGED. EXPECT
ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS HOT AS YESTERDAY OR
THE DAY BEFORE. MAXIMUM AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 90S
TO LOW 100S. TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILARLY WARM ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FURTHER WEST...WHERE CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE.

A LARGE UPPER STORM SYSTEM...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLOW MOVING
FRONT...IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL
BEGIN TO FEEL THE AFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHERE ONE OR TWO SLOW MOVING BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY
DEVELOP. RAIN CHANCES OVER NORTHERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL BE GREATEST FROM EARLY
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS MOST AREAS WILL
RECEIVE SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL...THOUGH AREAS ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LOOK TO GET IN ON THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS...WHERE UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES MAY FALL BETWEEN THURSDAY AND
SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE...A HALF INCH TO AN INCH LOOKS POSSIBLE.
DESPITE THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...IT STILL
APPEARS ANY THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING WILL
REMAIN LOCALIZED. PERHAPS THE MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACT WILL BE THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES...AS HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE SYSTEM WILL PEEL AWAY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH RAIN
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. THEREAFTER...AT LEAST A BRIEF WARM AND
DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...FRONTAL TIMING AND LOCATION REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT KEEP FORECAST DRY FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  72  94  72 /  10  10  30  50
HOBART OK         98  73  93  71 /  10  20  50  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  74  97  74 /  10  10  30  40
GAGE OK           89  72  87  67 /  60  50  60  60
PONCA CITY OK     97  73  94  72 /  10  10  30  50
DURANT OK         95  73  94  74 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 271741
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1241 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WITH ONGOING SHOWERS
NORTHWEST... HAVE KEPT TEMPO GROUPS AT KGAG AND KWWR.
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AT KCSM AND KHBR /WITH LOWER CHANCES ELSEWHERE/ BUT PROBABILITIES
ARE NOT SUFFICIENT TO INCLUDE A TEMPO OR PROB30 GROUP AT THIS
TIME... ALTHOUGH THAT MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AFTER SUNRISE
TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

UPDATE...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN/DECREASE ACROSS NORTHWEST
PARTS OF THE FA THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN NW PARTS OF THE FA.
DID ADD A MENTION OF ISOLATED ACTIVITY WITH 10 PERCENT POPS IN
OTHER PARTS OF THE CWA WHERE STRONG SFC HEATING MAY CAUSE A STORM
OR TWO TO DEVELOP... MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY. LOWERED MAX TEMPS IN
NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE FA WHERE EARLIER RAIN AND CLOUDS ARE
SLOWING DOWN THE WARM UP. UPDATES OUT SOON.

MAXWELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER NORTHWESTERN TAF SITES KGAG
AND KWWR...WHERE A MORNING STORM COMPLEX MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO
MVFR/IFR. SHRA/TSRA SHOULD DIMINISH BY AROUND 15Z...WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
LATER TODAY OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. THESE WILL LIKELY
AFFECT KGAG/KWWR ONCE AGAIN IN THE 00Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME. GUSTY
WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE HIGHLIGHTS OVER THE COMING WEEK REMAIN UNCHANGED. EXPECT
ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS HOT AS YESTERDAY OR
THE DAY BEFORE. MAXIMUM AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 90S
TO LOW 100S. TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILARLY WARM ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FURTHER WEST...WHERE CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE.

A LARGE UPPER STORM SYSTEM...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLOW MOVING
FRONT...IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL
BEGIN TO FEEL THE AFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHERE ONE OR TWO SLOW MOVING BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY
DEVELOP. RAIN CHANCES OVER NORTHERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL BE GREATEST FROM EARLY
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS MOST AREAS WILL
RECEIVE SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL...THOUGH AREAS ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LOOK TO GET IN ON THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS...WHERE UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES MAY FALL BETWEEN THURSDAY AND
SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE...A HALF INCH TO AN INCH LOOKS POSSIBLE.
DESPITE THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...IT STILL
APPEARS ANY THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING WILL
REMAIN LOCALIZED. PERHAPS THE MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACT WILL BE THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES...AS HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE SYSTEM WILL PEEL AWAY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH RAIN
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. THEREAFTER...AT LEAST A BRIEF WARM AND
DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...FRONTAL TIMING AND LOCATION REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT KEEP FORECAST DRY FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  72  94  72 /  10  10  30  50
HOBART OK         98  73  93  71 /  10  20  50  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  74  97  74 /  10  10  30  40
GAGE OK           89  72  87  67 /  60  50  60  60
PONCA CITY OK     97  73  94  72 /  10  10  30  50
DURANT OK         95  73  94  74 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 271741
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1241 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WITH ONGOING SHOWERS
NORTHWEST... HAVE KEPT TEMPO GROUPS AT KGAG AND KWWR.
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AT KCSM AND KHBR /WITH LOWER CHANCES ELSEWHERE/ BUT PROBABILITIES
ARE NOT SUFFICIENT TO INCLUDE A TEMPO OR PROB30 GROUP AT THIS
TIME... ALTHOUGH THAT MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AFTER SUNRISE
TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

UPDATE...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN/DECREASE ACROSS NORTHWEST
PARTS OF THE FA THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN NW PARTS OF THE FA.
DID ADD A MENTION OF ISOLATED ACTIVITY WITH 10 PERCENT POPS IN
OTHER PARTS OF THE CWA WHERE STRONG SFC HEATING MAY CAUSE A STORM
OR TWO TO DEVELOP... MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY. LOWERED MAX TEMPS IN
NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE FA WHERE EARLIER RAIN AND CLOUDS ARE
SLOWING DOWN THE WARM UP. UPDATES OUT SOON.

MAXWELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER NORTHWESTERN TAF SITES KGAG
AND KWWR...WHERE A MORNING STORM COMPLEX MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO
MVFR/IFR. SHRA/TSRA SHOULD DIMINISH BY AROUND 15Z...WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
LATER TODAY OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. THESE WILL LIKELY
AFFECT KGAG/KWWR ONCE AGAIN IN THE 00Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME. GUSTY
WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE HIGHLIGHTS OVER THE COMING WEEK REMAIN UNCHANGED. EXPECT
ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS HOT AS YESTERDAY OR
THE DAY BEFORE. MAXIMUM AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 90S
TO LOW 100S. TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILARLY WARM ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FURTHER WEST...WHERE CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE.

A LARGE UPPER STORM SYSTEM...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLOW MOVING
FRONT...IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL
BEGIN TO FEEL THE AFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHERE ONE OR TWO SLOW MOVING BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY
DEVELOP. RAIN CHANCES OVER NORTHERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL BE GREATEST FROM EARLY
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS MOST AREAS WILL
RECEIVE SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL...THOUGH AREAS ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LOOK TO GET IN ON THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS...WHERE UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES MAY FALL BETWEEN THURSDAY AND
SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE...A HALF INCH TO AN INCH LOOKS POSSIBLE.
DESPITE THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...IT STILL
APPEARS ANY THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING WILL
REMAIN LOCALIZED. PERHAPS THE MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACT WILL BE THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES...AS HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE SYSTEM WILL PEEL AWAY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH RAIN
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. THEREAFTER...AT LEAST A BRIEF WARM AND
DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...FRONTAL TIMING AND LOCATION REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT KEEP FORECAST DRY FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  72  94  72 /  10  10  30  50
HOBART OK         98  73  93  71 /  10  20  50  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  74  97  74 /  10  10  30  40
GAGE OK           89  72  87  67 /  60  50  60  60
PONCA CITY OK     97  73  94  72 /  10  10  30  50
DURANT OK         95  73  94  74 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KTSA 271722
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1222 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS HOWEVER.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE 10 PERCENT OR LESS SO
NO MENTION IS NEEDED IN THE ZONE FORECAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD AND NO UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05






000
FXUS64 KTSA 271642
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1142 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE 10 PERCENT OR LESS SO
NO MENTION IS NEEDED IN THE ZONE FORECAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD AND NO UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....21

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KTSA 271642
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1142 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE 10 PERCENT OR LESS SO
NO MENTION IS NEEDED IN THE ZONE FORECAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD AND NO UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....21

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KTSA 271642
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1142 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE 10 PERCENT OR LESS SO
NO MENTION IS NEEDED IN THE ZONE FORECAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD AND NO UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....21

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KTSA 271642
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1142 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE 10 PERCENT OR LESS SO
NO MENTION IS NEEDED IN THE ZONE FORECAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD AND NO UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....21

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KOUN 271533 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1033 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN/DECREASE ACROSS NORTHWEST
PARTS OF THE FA THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN NW PARTS OF THE FA.
DID ADD A MENTION OF ISOLATED ACTIVITY WITH 10 PERCENT POPS IN
OTHER PARTS OF THE CWA WHERE STRONG SFC HEATING MAY CAUSE A STORM
OR TWO TO DEVELOP... MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY. LOWERED MAX TEMPS IN
NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE FA WHERE EARLIER RAIN AND CLOUDS ARE
SLOWING DOWN THE WARM UP. UPDATES OUT SOON.

MAXWELL
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER NORTHWESTERN TAF SITES KGAG
AND KWWR...WHERE A MORNING STORM COMPLEX MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO
MVFR/IFR. SHRA/TSRA SHOULD DIMINISH BY AROUND 15Z...WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
LATER TODAY OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. THESE WILL LIKELY
AFFECT KGAG/KWWR ONCE AGAIN IN THE 00Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME. GUSTY
WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE HIGHLIGHTS OVER THE COMING WEEK REMAIN UNCHANGED. EXPECT
ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS HOT AS YESTERDAY OR
THE DAY BEFORE. MAXIMUM AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 90S
TO LOW 100S. TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILARLY WARM ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FURTHER WEST...WHERE CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE.

A LARGE UPPER STORM SYSTEM...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLOW MOVING
FRONT...IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL
BEGIN TO FEEL THE AFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHERE ONE OR TWO SLOW MOVING BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY
DEVELOP. RAIN CHANCES OVER NORTHERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL BE GREATEST FROM EARLY
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS MOST AREAS WILL
RECEIVE SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL...THOUGH AREAS ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LOOK TO GET IN ON THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS...WHERE UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES MAY FALL BETWEEN THURSDAY AND
SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE...A HALF INCH TO AN INCH LOOKS POSSIBLE.
DESPITE THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...IT STILL
APPEARS ANY THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING WILL
REMAIN LOCALIZED. PERHAPS THE MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACT WILL BE THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES...AS HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE SYSTEM WILL PEEL AWAY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH RAIN
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. THEREAFTER...AT LEAST A BRIEF WARM AND
DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...FRONTAL TIMING AND LOCATION REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT KEEP FORECAST DRY FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  72  94  72 /  10  10  30  50
HOBART OK         98  73  93  71 /  10  20  50  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  74  97  74 /  10  10  30  40
GAGE OK           89  72  87  67 /  60  50  60  60
PONCA CITY OK     97  73  94  72 /  10  10  30  50
DURANT OK         95  73  94  74 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/14




000
FXUS64 KOUN 271533 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1033 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN/DECREASE ACROSS NORTHWEST
PARTS OF THE FA THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN NW PARTS OF THE FA.
DID ADD A MENTION OF ISOLATED ACTIVITY WITH 10 PERCENT POPS IN
OTHER PARTS OF THE CWA WHERE STRONG SFC HEATING MAY CAUSE A STORM
OR TWO TO DEVELOP... MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY. LOWERED MAX TEMPS IN
NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE FA WHERE EARLIER RAIN AND CLOUDS ARE
SLOWING DOWN THE WARM UP. UPDATES OUT SOON.

MAXWELL
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER NORTHWESTERN TAF SITES KGAG
AND KWWR...WHERE A MORNING STORM COMPLEX MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO
MVFR/IFR. SHRA/TSRA SHOULD DIMINISH BY AROUND 15Z...WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
LATER TODAY OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. THESE WILL LIKELY
AFFECT KGAG/KWWR ONCE AGAIN IN THE 00Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME. GUSTY
WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE HIGHLIGHTS OVER THE COMING WEEK REMAIN UNCHANGED. EXPECT
ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS HOT AS YESTERDAY OR
THE DAY BEFORE. MAXIMUM AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 90S
TO LOW 100S. TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILARLY WARM ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FURTHER WEST...WHERE CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE.

A LARGE UPPER STORM SYSTEM...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLOW MOVING
FRONT...IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL
BEGIN TO FEEL THE AFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHERE ONE OR TWO SLOW MOVING BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY
DEVELOP. RAIN CHANCES OVER NORTHERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL BE GREATEST FROM EARLY
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS MOST AREAS WILL
RECEIVE SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL...THOUGH AREAS ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LOOK TO GET IN ON THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS...WHERE UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES MAY FALL BETWEEN THURSDAY AND
SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE...A HALF INCH TO AN INCH LOOKS POSSIBLE.
DESPITE THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...IT STILL
APPEARS ANY THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING WILL
REMAIN LOCALIZED. PERHAPS THE MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACT WILL BE THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES...AS HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE SYSTEM WILL PEEL AWAY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH RAIN
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. THEREAFTER...AT LEAST A BRIEF WARM AND
DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...FRONTAL TIMING AND LOCATION REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT KEEP FORECAST DRY FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  72  94  72 /  10  10  30  50
HOBART OK         98  73  93  71 /  10  20  50  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  74  97  74 /  10  10  30  40
GAGE OK           89  72  87  67 /  60  50  60  60
PONCA CITY OK     97  73  94  72 /  10  10  30  50
DURANT OK         95  73  94  74 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/14



000
FXUS64 KOUN 271134
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
634 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER NORTHWESTERN TAF SITES KGAG
AND KWWR...WHERE A MORNING STORM COMPLEX MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO
MVFR/IFR. SHRA/TSRA SHOULD DIMINISH BY AROUND 15Z...WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
LATER TODAY OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. THESE WILL LIKELY
AFFECT KGAG/KWWR ONCE AGAIN IN THE 00Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME. GUSTY
WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE HIGHLIGHTS OVER THE COMING WEEK REMAIN UNCHANGED. EXPECT
ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS HOT AS YESTERDAY OR
THE DAY BEFORE. MAXIMUM AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 90S
TO LOW 100S. TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILARLY WARM ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FURTHER WEST...WHERE CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE.

A LARGE UPPER STORM SYSTEM...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLOW MOVING
FRONT...IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL
BEGIN TO FEEL THE AFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHERE ONE OR TWO SLOW MOVING BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY
DEVELOP. RAIN CHANCES OVER NORTHERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL BE GREATEST FROM EARLY
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS MOST AREAS WILL
RECEIVE SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL...THOUGH AREAS ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LOOK TO GET IN ON THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS...WHERE UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES MAY FALL BETWEEN THURSDAY AND
SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE...A HALF INCH TO AN INCH LOOKS POSSIBLE.
DESPITE THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...IT STILL
APPEARS ANY THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING WILL
REMAIN LOCALIZED. PERHAPS THE MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACT WILL BE THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES...AS HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE SYSTEM WILL PEEL AWAY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH RAIN
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. THEREAFTER...AT LEAST A BRIEF WARM AND
DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...FRONTAL TIMING AND LOCATION REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT KEEP FORECAST DRY FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  72  94  72 /  10  10  30  50
HOBART OK         98  73  93  71 /  10  20  50  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  74  97  74 /  10  10  30  40
GAGE OK           92  72  87  67 /  60  50  60  60
PONCA CITY OK     97  73  94  72 /  10  10  30  50
DURANT OK         95  73  94  74 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

MBS/AUSTIN



000
FXUS64 KOUN 271134
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
634 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER NORTHWESTERN TAF SITES KGAG
AND KWWR...WHERE A MORNING STORM COMPLEX MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO
MVFR/IFR. SHRA/TSRA SHOULD DIMINISH BY AROUND 15Z...WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
LATER TODAY OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. THESE WILL LIKELY
AFFECT KGAG/KWWR ONCE AGAIN IN THE 00Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME. GUSTY
WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE HIGHLIGHTS OVER THE COMING WEEK REMAIN UNCHANGED. EXPECT
ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS HOT AS YESTERDAY OR
THE DAY BEFORE. MAXIMUM AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 90S
TO LOW 100S. TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILARLY WARM ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FURTHER WEST...WHERE CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE.

A LARGE UPPER STORM SYSTEM...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLOW MOVING
FRONT...IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL
BEGIN TO FEEL THE AFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHERE ONE OR TWO SLOW MOVING BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY
DEVELOP. RAIN CHANCES OVER NORTHERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL BE GREATEST FROM EARLY
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS MOST AREAS WILL
RECEIVE SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL...THOUGH AREAS ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LOOK TO GET IN ON THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS...WHERE UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES MAY FALL BETWEEN THURSDAY AND
SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE...A HALF INCH TO AN INCH LOOKS POSSIBLE.
DESPITE THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...IT STILL
APPEARS ANY THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING WILL
REMAIN LOCALIZED. PERHAPS THE MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACT WILL BE THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES...AS HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE SYSTEM WILL PEEL AWAY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH RAIN
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. THEREAFTER...AT LEAST A BRIEF WARM AND
DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...FRONTAL TIMING AND LOCATION REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT KEEP FORECAST DRY FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  72  94  72 /  10  10  30  50
HOBART OK         98  73  93  71 /  10  20  50  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  74  97  74 /  10  10  30  40
GAGE OK           92  72  87  67 /  60  50  60  60
PONCA CITY OK     97  73  94  72 /  10  10  30  50
DURANT OK         95  73  94  74 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

MBS/AUSTIN



000
FXUS64 KOUN 271134
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
634 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER NORTHWESTERN TAF SITES KGAG
AND KWWR...WHERE A MORNING STORM COMPLEX MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO
MVFR/IFR. SHRA/TSRA SHOULD DIMINISH BY AROUND 15Z...WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
LATER TODAY OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. THESE WILL LIKELY
AFFECT KGAG/KWWR ONCE AGAIN IN THE 00Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME. GUSTY
WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE HIGHLIGHTS OVER THE COMING WEEK REMAIN UNCHANGED. EXPECT
ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS HOT AS YESTERDAY OR
THE DAY BEFORE. MAXIMUM AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 90S
TO LOW 100S. TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILARLY WARM ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FURTHER WEST...WHERE CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE.

A LARGE UPPER STORM SYSTEM...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLOW MOVING
FRONT...IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL
BEGIN TO FEEL THE AFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHERE ONE OR TWO SLOW MOVING BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY
DEVELOP. RAIN CHANCES OVER NORTHERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL BE GREATEST FROM EARLY
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS MOST AREAS WILL
RECEIVE SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL...THOUGH AREAS ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LOOK TO GET IN ON THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS...WHERE UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES MAY FALL BETWEEN THURSDAY AND
SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE...A HALF INCH TO AN INCH LOOKS POSSIBLE.
DESPITE THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...IT STILL
APPEARS ANY THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING WILL
REMAIN LOCALIZED. PERHAPS THE MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACT WILL BE THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES...AS HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE SYSTEM WILL PEEL AWAY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH RAIN
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. THEREAFTER...AT LEAST A BRIEF WARM AND
DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...FRONTAL TIMING AND LOCATION REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT KEEP FORECAST DRY FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  72  94  72 /  10  10  30  50
HOBART OK         98  73  93  71 /  10  20  50  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  74  97  74 /  10  10  30  40
GAGE OK           92  72  87  67 /  60  50  60  60
PONCA CITY OK     97  73  94  72 /  10  10  30  50
DURANT OK         95  73  94  74 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

MBS/AUSTIN



000
FXUS64 KOUN 271134
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
634 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER NORTHWESTERN TAF SITES KGAG
AND KWWR...WHERE A MORNING STORM COMPLEX MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO
MVFR/IFR. SHRA/TSRA SHOULD DIMINISH BY AROUND 15Z...WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
LATER TODAY OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. THESE WILL LIKELY
AFFECT KGAG/KWWR ONCE AGAIN IN THE 00Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME. GUSTY
WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE HIGHLIGHTS OVER THE COMING WEEK REMAIN UNCHANGED. EXPECT
ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS HOT AS YESTERDAY OR
THE DAY BEFORE. MAXIMUM AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 90S
TO LOW 100S. TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILARLY WARM ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FURTHER WEST...WHERE CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE.

A LARGE UPPER STORM SYSTEM...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLOW MOVING
FRONT...IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL
BEGIN TO FEEL THE AFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHERE ONE OR TWO SLOW MOVING BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY
DEVELOP. RAIN CHANCES OVER NORTHERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL BE GREATEST FROM EARLY
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS MOST AREAS WILL
RECEIVE SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL...THOUGH AREAS ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LOOK TO GET IN ON THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS...WHERE UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES MAY FALL BETWEEN THURSDAY AND
SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE...A HALF INCH TO AN INCH LOOKS POSSIBLE.
DESPITE THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...IT STILL
APPEARS ANY THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING WILL
REMAIN LOCALIZED. PERHAPS THE MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACT WILL BE THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES...AS HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE SYSTEM WILL PEEL AWAY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH RAIN
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. THEREAFTER...AT LEAST A BRIEF WARM AND
DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...FRONTAL TIMING AND LOCATION REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT KEEP FORECAST DRY FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  72  94  72 /  10  10  30  50
HOBART OK         98  73  93  71 /  10  20  50  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  74  97  74 /  10  10  30  40
GAGE OK           92  72  87  67 /  60  50  60  60
PONCA CITY OK     97  73  94  72 /  10  10  30  50
DURANT OK         95  73  94  74 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

MBS/AUSTIN



000
FXUS64 KTSA 271134
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
634 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ALSO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...THOUGH WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE WILL NOT CARRY
A MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD FOR ALL TAF LOCATIONS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ON FOR ONE MORE DAY ACROSS EASTERN
OK AND NORTHWEST AR BEFORE ERODING IN THE COMING DAYS AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE NAM 2M TEMPS HAVE
DONE A VERY GOOD JOB WITH HIGHS THE PAST FEW DAYS AND WILL STICK
WITH IT AGAIN TODAY...SUGGESTING SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS THAN
YESTERDAY...RELATIVELY SPEAKING OF COURSE. THERE WAS SOME ISOLATED
STORM DEVELOPMENT YESTERDAY IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...AND BASED ON
LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE GOING ON ALOFT AND SUPPORT FROM BOTH LOCAL
WRF MODEL RUNS...WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE AND INSERT AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON TSTORM MENTION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. RAIN/STORM CHANCES RAMP
UP THURSDAY NIGHT AND PEAK FRIDAY NIGHT...TAPERING OFF ON
SATURDAY. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK TO START NEXT WEEK...RAIN/STORM
CHANCES RAMP BACK UP BY TUESDAY. THE POP FORECAST MORE CLOSELY
ALIGNS WITH THE EURO...WHICH HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT ON DROPPING
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN INTO THE REGION ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
THE WESTERLIES...WHICH WILL BE MAKING DEEPER PENETRATION INTO THE
CONUS NEXT WEEK IN WHAT COULD BE A SIGN OF THE UPCOMING CHANGE OF
SEASONS.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  73  95  73 /  10  10  10  40
FSM   96  71  94  72 /  10  10   0  20
MLC   95  71  93  72 /  10  10  10  30
BVO   97  69  96  69 /  10  10  10  40
FYV   92  67  91  68 /  10  10   0  20
BYV   92  68  91  68 /  10  10   0  10
MKO   96  70  94  71 /  10  10  10  30
MIO   96  71  94  70 /  10  10  10  30
F10   95  71  93  71 /  10  10  10  30
HHW   94  70  94  72 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20






000
FXUS64 KTSA 271134
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
634 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ALSO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...THOUGH WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE WILL NOT CARRY
A MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD FOR ALL TAF LOCATIONS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ON FOR ONE MORE DAY ACROSS EASTERN
OK AND NORTHWEST AR BEFORE ERODING IN THE COMING DAYS AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE NAM 2M TEMPS HAVE
DONE A VERY GOOD JOB WITH HIGHS THE PAST FEW DAYS AND WILL STICK
WITH IT AGAIN TODAY...SUGGESTING SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS THAN
YESTERDAY...RELATIVELY SPEAKING OF COURSE. THERE WAS SOME ISOLATED
STORM DEVELOPMENT YESTERDAY IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...AND BASED ON
LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE GOING ON ALOFT AND SUPPORT FROM BOTH LOCAL
WRF MODEL RUNS...WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE AND INSERT AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON TSTORM MENTION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. RAIN/STORM CHANCES RAMP
UP THURSDAY NIGHT AND PEAK FRIDAY NIGHT...TAPERING OFF ON
SATURDAY. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK TO START NEXT WEEK...RAIN/STORM
CHANCES RAMP BACK UP BY TUESDAY. THE POP FORECAST MORE CLOSELY
ALIGNS WITH THE EURO...WHICH HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT ON DROPPING
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN INTO THE REGION ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
THE WESTERLIES...WHICH WILL BE MAKING DEEPER PENETRATION INTO THE
CONUS NEXT WEEK IN WHAT COULD BE A SIGN OF THE UPCOMING CHANGE OF
SEASONS.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  73  95  73 /  10  10  10  40
FSM   96  71  94  72 /  10  10   0  20
MLC   95  71  93  72 /  10  10  10  30
BVO   97  69  96  69 /  10  10  10  40
FYV   92  67  91  68 /  10  10   0  20
BYV   92  68  91  68 /  10  10   0  10
MKO   96  70  94  71 /  10  10  10  30
MIO   96  71  94  70 /  10  10  10  30
F10   95  71  93  71 /  10  10  10  30
HHW   94  70  94  72 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20






000
FXUS64 KTSA 271134
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
634 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ALSO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...THOUGH WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE WILL NOT CARRY
A MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD FOR ALL TAF LOCATIONS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ON FOR ONE MORE DAY ACROSS EASTERN
OK AND NORTHWEST AR BEFORE ERODING IN THE COMING DAYS AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE NAM 2M TEMPS HAVE
DONE A VERY GOOD JOB WITH HIGHS THE PAST FEW DAYS AND WILL STICK
WITH IT AGAIN TODAY...SUGGESTING SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS THAN
YESTERDAY...RELATIVELY SPEAKING OF COURSE. THERE WAS SOME ISOLATED
STORM DEVELOPMENT YESTERDAY IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...AND BASED ON
LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE GOING ON ALOFT AND SUPPORT FROM BOTH LOCAL
WRF MODEL RUNS...WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE AND INSERT AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON TSTORM MENTION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. RAIN/STORM CHANCES RAMP
UP THURSDAY NIGHT AND PEAK FRIDAY NIGHT...TAPERING OFF ON
SATURDAY. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK TO START NEXT WEEK...RAIN/STORM
CHANCES RAMP BACK UP BY TUESDAY. THE POP FORECAST MORE CLOSELY
ALIGNS WITH THE EURO...WHICH HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT ON DROPPING
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN INTO THE REGION ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
THE WESTERLIES...WHICH WILL BE MAKING DEEPER PENETRATION INTO THE
CONUS NEXT WEEK IN WHAT COULD BE A SIGN OF THE UPCOMING CHANGE OF
SEASONS.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  73  95  73 /  10  10  10  40
FSM   96  71  94  72 /  10  10   0  20
MLC   95  71  93  72 /  10  10  10  30
BVO   97  69  96  69 /  10  10  10  40
FYV   92  67  91  68 /  10  10   0  20
BYV   92  68  91  68 /  10  10   0  10
MKO   96  70  94  71 /  10  10  10  30
MIO   96  71  94  70 /  10  10  10  30
F10   95  71  93  71 /  10  10  10  30
HHW   94  70  94  72 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20






000
FXUS64 KTSA 271134
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
634 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ALSO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...THOUGH WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE WILL NOT CARRY
A MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD FOR ALL TAF LOCATIONS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ON FOR ONE MORE DAY ACROSS EASTERN
OK AND NORTHWEST AR BEFORE ERODING IN THE COMING DAYS AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE NAM 2M TEMPS HAVE
DONE A VERY GOOD JOB WITH HIGHS THE PAST FEW DAYS AND WILL STICK
WITH IT AGAIN TODAY...SUGGESTING SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS THAN
YESTERDAY...RELATIVELY SPEAKING OF COURSE. THERE WAS SOME ISOLATED
STORM DEVELOPMENT YESTERDAY IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...AND BASED ON
LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE GOING ON ALOFT AND SUPPORT FROM BOTH LOCAL
WRF MODEL RUNS...WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE AND INSERT AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON TSTORM MENTION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. RAIN/STORM CHANCES RAMP
UP THURSDAY NIGHT AND PEAK FRIDAY NIGHT...TAPERING OFF ON
SATURDAY. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK TO START NEXT WEEK...RAIN/STORM
CHANCES RAMP BACK UP BY TUESDAY. THE POP FORECAST MORE CLOSELY
ALIGNS WITH THE EURO...WHICH HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT ON DROPPING
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN INTO THE REGION ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
THE WESTERLIES...WHICH WILL BE MAKING DEEPER PENETRATION INTO THE
CONUS NEXT WEEK IN WHAT COULD BE A SIGN OF THE UPCOMING CHANGE OF
SEASONS.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  73  95  73 /  10  10  10  40
FSM   96  71  94  72 /  10  10   0  20
MLC   95  71  93  72 /  10  10  10  30
BVO   97  69  96  69 /  10  10  10  40
FYV   92  67  91  68 /  10  10   0  20
BYV   92  68  91  68 /  10  10   0  10
MKO   96  70  94  71 /  10  10  10  30
MIO   96  71  94  70 /  10  10  10  30
F10   95  71  93  71 /  10  10  10  30
HHW   94  70  94  72 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20






000
FXUS64 KOUN 270842
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
342 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE HIGHLIGHTS OVER THE COMING WEEK REMAIN UNCHANGED. EXPECT
ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS HOT AS YESTERDAY OR
THE DAY BEFORE. MAXIMUM AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 90S
TO LOW 100S. TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILARLY WARM ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FURTHER WEST...WHERE CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE.

A LARGE UPPER STORM SYSTEM...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLOW MOVING
FRONT...IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL
BEGIN TO FEEL THE AFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHERE ONE OR TWO SLOW MOVING BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY
DEVELOP. RAIN CHANCES OVER NORTHERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL BE GREATEST FROM EARLY
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS MOST AREAS WILL
RECEIVE SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL...THOUGH AREAS ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LOOK TO GET IN ON THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS...WHERE UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES MAY FALL BETWEEN THURSDAY AND
SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE...A HALF INCH TO AN INCH LOOKS POSSIBLE.
DESPITE THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...IT STILL
APPEARS ANY THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING WILL
REMAIN LOCALIZED. PERHAPS THE MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACT WILL BE THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES...AS HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE SYSTEM WILL PEEL AWAY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH RAIN
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. THEREAFTER...AT LEAST A BRIEF WARM AND
DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...FRONTAL TIMING AND LOCATION REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT KEEP FORECAST DRY FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  72  94  72 /  10  10  30  50
HOBART OK         98  73  93  71 /  10  20  50  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  74  97  74 /  10  10  30  40
GAGE OK           92  72  87  67 /  50  50  60  60
PONCA CITY OK     97  73  94  72 /  10  10  30  50
DURANT OK         95  73  94  74 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

MBS/AUSTIN




000
FXUS64 KOUN 270842
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
342 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE HIGHLIGHTS OVER THE COMING WEEK REMAIN UNCHANGED. EXPECT
ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS HOT AS YESTERDAY OR
THE DAY BEFORE. MAXIMUM AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 90S
TO LOW 100S. TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILARLY WARM ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FURTHER WEST...WHERE CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE.

A LARGE UPPER STORM SYSTEM...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLOW MOVING
FRONT...IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL
BEGIN TO FEEL THE AFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHERE ONE OR TWO SLOW MOVING BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY
DEVELOP. RAIN CHANCES OVER NORTHERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL BE GREATEST FROM EARLY
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS MOST AREAS WILL
RECEIVE SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL...THOUGH AREAS ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LOOK TO GET IN ON THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS...WHERE UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES MAY FALL BETWEEN THURSDAY AND
SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE...A HALF INCH TO AN INCH LOOKS POSSIBLE.
DESPITE THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...IT STILL
APPEARS ANY THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING WILL
REMAIN LOCALIZED. PERHAPS THE MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACT WILL BE THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES...AS HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE SYSTEM WILL PEEL AWAY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH RAIN
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. THEREAFTER...AT LEAST A BRIEF WARM AND
DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...FRONTAL TIMING AND LOCATION REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT KEEP FORECAST DRY FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  72  94  72 /  10  10  30  50
HOBART OK         98  73  93  71 /  10  20  50  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  74  97  74 /  10  10  30  40
GAGE OK           92  72  87  67 /  50  50  60  60
PONCA CITY OK     97  73  94  72 /  10  10  30  50
DURANT OK         95  73  94  74 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

MBS/AUSTIN




000
FXUS64 KOUN 270842
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
342 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE HIGHLIGHTS OVER THE COMING WEEK REMAIN UNCHANGED. EXPECT
ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS HOT AS YESTERDAY OR
THE DAY BEFORE. MAXIMUM AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 90S
TO LOW 100S. TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILARLY WARM ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FURTHER WEST...WHERE CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE.

A LARGE UPPER STORM SYSTEM...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLOW MOVING
FRONT...IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL
BEGIN TO FEEL THE AFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHERE ONE OR TWO SLOW MOVING BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY
DEVELOP. RAIN CHANCES OVER NORTHERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL BE GREATEST FROM EARLY
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS MOST AREAS WILL
RECEIVE SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL...THOUGH AREAS ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LOOK TO GET IN ON THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS...WHERE UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES MAY FALL BETWEEN THURSDAY AND
SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE...A HALF INCH TO AN INCH LOOKS POSSIBLE.
DESPITE THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...IT STILL
APPEARS ANY THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING WILL
REMAIN LOCALIZED. PERHAPS THE MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACT WILL BE THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES...AS HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE SYSTEM WILL PEEL AWAY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH RAIN
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. THEREAFTER...AT LEAST A BRIEF WARM AND
DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...FRONTAL TIMING AND LOCATION REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT KEEP FORECAST DRY FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  72  94  72 /  10  10  30  50
HOBART OK         98  73  93  71 /  10  20  50  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  74  97  74 /  10  10  30  40
GAGE OK           92  72  87  67 /  50  50  60  60
PONCA CITY OK     97  73  94  72 /  10  10  30  50
DURANT OK         95  73  94  74 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

MBS/AUSTIN




000
FXUS64 KOUN 270842
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
342 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE HIGHLIGHTS OVER THE COMING WEEK REMAIN UNCHANGED. EXPECT
ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS HOT AS YESTERDAY OR
THE DAY BEFORE. MAXIMUM AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 90S
TO LOW 100S. TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILARLY WARM ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FURTHER WEST...WHERE CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE.

A LARGE UPPER STORM SYSTEM...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLOW MOVING
FRONT...IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL
BEGIN TO FEEL THE AFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHERE ONE OR TWO SLOW MOVING BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY
DEVELOP. RAIN CHANCES OVER NORTHERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL BE GREATEST FROM EARLY
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS MOST AREAS WILL
RECEIVE SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL...THOUGH AREAS ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LOOK TO GET IN ON THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS...WHERE UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES MAY FALL BETWEEN THURSDAY AND
SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE...A HALF INCH TO AN INCH LOOKS POSSIBLE.
DESPITE THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...IT STILL
APPEARS ANY THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING WILL
REMAIN LOCALIZED. PERHAPS THE MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACT WILL BE THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES...AS HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE SYSTEM WILL PEEL AWAY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH RAIN
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. THEREAFTER...AT LEAST A BRIEF WARM AND
DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...FRONTAL TIMING AND LOCATION REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT KEEP FORECAST DRY FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  72  94  72 /  10  10  30  50
HOBART OK         98  73  93  71 /  10  20  50  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  74  97  74 /  10  10  30  40
GAGE OK           92  72  87  67 /  50  50  60  60
PONCA CITY OK     97  73  94  72 /  10  10  30  50
DURANT OK         95  73  94  74 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

MBS/AUSTIN




000
FXUS64 KTSA 270828
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
328 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ON FOR ONE MORE DAY ACROSS EASTERN
OK AND NORTHWEST AR BEFORE ERODING IN THE COMING DAYS AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE NAM 2M TEMPS HAVE
DONE A VERY GOOD JOB WITH HIGHS THE PAST FEW DAYS AND WILL STICK
WITH IT AGAIN TODAY...SUGGESTING SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS THAN
YESTERDAY...RELATIVELY SPEAKING OF COURSE. THERE WAS SOME ISOLATED
STORM DEVELOPMENT YESTERDAY IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...AND BASED ON
LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE GOING ON ALOFT AND SUPPORT FROM BOTH LOCAL
WRF MODEL RUNS...WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE AND INSERT AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON TSTORM MENTION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. RAIN/STORM CHANCES RAMP
UP THURSDAY NIGHT AND PEAK FRIDAY NIGHT...TAPERING OFF ON
SATURDAY. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK TO START NEXT WEEK...RAIN/STORM
CHANCES RAMP BACK UP BY TUESDAY. THE POP FORECAST MORE CLOSELY
ALIGNS WITH THE EURO...WHICH HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT ON DROPPING
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN INTO THE REGION ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
THE WESTERLIES...WHICH WILL BE MAKING DEEPER PENETRATION INTO THE
CONUS NEXT WEEK IN WHAT COULD BE A SIGN OF THE UPCOMING CHANGE OF
SEASONS.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  73  95  73 /  10  10  10  40
FSM   96  71  94  72 /  10  10   0  20
MLC   95  71  93  72 /  10  10  10  30
BVO   97  69  96  69 /  10  10  10  40
FYV   92  67  91  68 /  10  10   0  20
BYV   92  68  91  68 /  10  10   0  10
MKO   96  70  94  71 /  10  10  10  30
MIO   96  71  94  70 /  10  10  10  30
F10   95  71  93  71 /  10  10  10  30
HHW   94  70  94  72 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30






000
FXUS64 KTSA 270828
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
328 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ON FOR ONE MORE DAY ACROSS EASTERN
OK AND NORTHWEST AR BEFORE ERODING IN THE COMING DAYS AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE NAM 2M TEMPS HAVE
DONE A VERY GOOD JOB WITH HIGHS THE PAST FEW DAYS AND WILL STICK
WITH IT AGAIN TODAY...SUGGESTING SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS THAN
YESTERDAY...RELATIVELY SPEAKING OF COURSE. THERE WAS SOME ISOLATED
STORM DEVELOPMENT YESTERDAY IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...AND BASED ON
LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE GOING ON ALOFT AND SUPPORT FROM BOTH LOCAL
WRF MODEL RUNS...WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE AND INSERT AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON TSTORM MENTION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. RAIN/STORM CHANCES RAMP
UP THURSDAY NIGHT AND PEAK FRIDAY NIGHT...TAPERING OFF ON
SATURDAY. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK TO START NEXT WEEK...RAIN/STORM
CHANCES RAMP BACK UP BY TUESDAY. THE POP FORECAST MORE CLOSELY
ALIGNS WITH THE EURO...WHICH HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT ON DROPPING
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN INTO THE REGION ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
THE WESTERLIES...WHICH WILL BE MAKING DEEPER PENETRATION INTO THE
CONUS NEXT WEEK IN WHAT COULD BE A SIGN OF THE UPCOMING CHANGE OF
SEASONS.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  73  95  73 /  10  10  10  40
FSM   96  71  94  72 /  10  10   0  20
MLC   95  71  93  72 /  10  10  10  30
BVO   97  69  96  69 /  10  10  10  40
FYV   92  67  91  68 /  10  10   0  20
BYV   92  68  91  68 /  10  10   0  10
MKO   96  70  94  71 /  10  10  10  30
MIO   96  71  94  70 /  10  10  10  30
F10   95  71  93  71 /  10  10  10  30
HHW   94  70  94  72 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 270450
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1150 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORMAL
AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
REMAINS POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON BUT AERIAL COVERAGE FAR TOO LIMITED
TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FESTER NEAR FAR NE OK / FAR NW AR
HOWEVER COVERAGE HAS REMAINED LOW AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE. OTHERWISE TEMP TRENDS REMAIN ON TRACK W/ LOW TEMPS
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14







000
FXUS64 KTSA 270450
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1150 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORMAL
AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
REMAINS POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON BUT AERIAL COVERAGE FAR TOO LIMITED
TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FESTER NEAR FAR NE OK / FAR NW AR
HOWEVER COVERAGE HAS REMAINED LOW AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE. OTHERWISE TEMP TRENDS REMAIN ON TRACK W/ LOW TEMPS
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14






000
FXUS64 KOUN 270432
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1132 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
THE EXISTING RA AND TSRA IN W OK SHOULD BEGIN TO SHUT DOWN AROUND
09Z...AS WINDS ALOFT VEER AND REDUCE LIFT AND THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THE RAIN AREAS. SCT CLOUDS
AROUND 6000 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
TSRA MAY OCCUR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING IN NW OK ONCE
AGAIN...BUT CHANCES ARE NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAFS
THAT FAR OUT. HOWEVER...CHANCES INCREASE INTO THE NIGHT AT KGAG
AND KWWR...WITH THE APPROACH OF A STORM SYSTEM FROM THE W. THESE
STORMS WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY E OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA
FOR TONIGHT...WITH SHORT-TERM MODELS INDICATING NON-SEVERE STORMS
CONTINUING BEYOND MIDNIGHT WITHIN ZONE OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET
INDUCED POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION COINCIDENT WITH MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE PLUME. DECREASED OVERNIGHT TEMPS A BIT WITHIN AREA OF
RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  95  72  94 /  20   0  10  20
HOBART OK         72  97  74  94 /  20  10  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  98  75  97 /  10   0  10  20
GAGE OK           72  94  72  87 /  60  40  40  60
PONCA CITY OK     73  96  73  94 /  30   0  10  20
DURANT OK         74  94  73  94 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/23/23



000
FXUS64 KOUN 270432
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1132 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
THE EXISTING RA AND TSRA IN W OK SHOULD BEGIN TO SHUT DOWN AROUND
09Z...AS WINDS ALOFT VEER AND REDUCE LIFT AND THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THE RAIN AREAS. SCT CLOUDS
AROUND 6000 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
TSRA MAY OCCUR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING IN NW OK ONCE
AGAIN...BUT CHANCES ARE NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAFS
THAT FAR OUT. HOWEVER...CHANCES INCREASE INTO THE NIGHT AT KGAG
AND KWWR...WITH THE APPROACH OF A STORM SYSTEM FROM THE W. THESE
STORMS WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY E OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA
FOR TONIGHT...WITH SHORT-TERM MODELS INDICATING NON-SEVERE STORMS
CONTINUING BEYOND MIDNIGHT WITHIN ZONE OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET
INDUCED POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION COINCIDENT WITH MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE PLUME. DECREASED OVERNIGHT TEMPS A BIT WITHIN AREA OF
RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  95  72  94 /  20   0  10  20
HOBART OK         72  97  74  94 /  20  10  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  98  75  97 /  10   0  10  20
GAGE OK           72  94  72  87 /  60  40  40  60
PONCA CITY OK     73  96  73  94 /  30   0  10  20
DURANT OK         74  94  73  94 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 270228
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
928 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA
FOR TONIGHT...WITH SHORT-TERM MODELS INDICATING NON-SEVERE STORMS
CONTINUING BEYOND MIDNIGHT WITHIN ZONE OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET
INDUCED POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION COINCIDENT WITH MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE PLUME. DECREASED OVERNIGHT TEMPS A BIT WITHIN AREA OF
RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  95  72  94 /  20   0  10  20
HOBART OK         72  97  74  94 /  20  10  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  98  75  97 /  10   0  10  20
GAGE OK           72  94  72  87 /  60  40  40  60
PONCA CITY OK     73  96  73  94 /  30   0  10  20
DURANT OK         74  94  73  94 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 270228
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
928 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA
FOR TONIGHT...WITH SHORT-TERM MODELS INDICATING NON-SEVERE STORMS
CONTINUING BEYOND MIDNIGHT WITHIN ZONE OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET
INDUCED POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION COINCIDENT WITH MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE PLUME. DECREASED OVERNIGHT TEMPS A BIT WITHIN AREA OF
RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  95  72  94 /  20   0  10  20
HOBART OK         72  97  74  94 /  20  10  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  98  75  97 /  10   0  10  20
GAGE OK           72  94  72  87 /  60  40  40  60
PONCA CITY OK     73  96  73  94 /  30   0  10  20
DURANT OK         74  94  73  94 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/23



000
FXUS64 KTSA 270227
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
927 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FESTER NEAR FAR NE OK / FAR NW AR
HOWEVER COVERAGE HAS REMAINED LOW AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE. OTHERWISE TEMP TRENDS REMAIN ON TRACK W/ LOW TEMPS
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  96  72  95 /  10   0  10  10
FSM   73  95  70  95 /  10   0  10  10
MLC   72  95  69  94 /  10   0  10  10
BVO   70  97  69  95 /  10   0  10  20
FYV   68  92  67  91 /  10   0  10  10
BYV   70  93  69  92 /  10   0  10  10
MKO   71  94  70  94 /  10   0  10  10
MIO   71  95  70  94 /  10   0  10  10
F10   73  94  71  93 /  10   0  10  10
HHW   72  95  70  94 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07







000
FXUS64 KTSA 270227
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
927 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FESTER NEAR FAR NE OK / FAR NW AR
HOWEVER COVERAGE HAS REMAINED LOW AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE. OTHERWISE TEMP TRENDS REMAIN ON TRACK W/ LOW TEMPS
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  96  72  95 /  10   0  10  10
FSM   73  95  70  95 /  10   0  10  10
MLC   72  95  69  94 /  10   0  10  10
BVO   70  97  69  95 /  10   0  10  20
FYV   68  92  67  91 /  10   0  10  10
BYV   70  93  69  92 /  10   0  10  10
MKO   71  94  70  94 /  10   0  10  10
MIO   71  95  70  94 /  10   0  10  10
F10   73  94  71  93 /  10   0  10  10
HHW   72  95  70  94 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07






000
FXUS64 KOUN 262316
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
616 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHRA/TSRA IN NW OK WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF TSRA SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH TIME. EXPECT VARIABLE WINDS IN AND NEAR THE
SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO GENERALLY SE
DIRECTIONS BY MIDNIGHT THROUGHOUT THE REGION. TOMORROW SHOULD BE
YET ANOTHER REPEAT OF TODAY AND THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. SCATTERED
TSRA LIKELY WILL DEVELOP YET AGAIN IN NW OK...WITH ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. A LAYER AROUND SCT060 WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION
IS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. DECIDED TO ADD POPS ALONG
AND JUST WEST OF I-35 CORRIDOR. EXPECT THE STORMS TO DISSPIATE
JUST AROUND SUNSET.

ALSO BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AS COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION IS EXPANDING.

MAHALE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR IN
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. THIS
ISOLATED CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT SUNSET.

TOMORROW IS OUR LAST HOT AND DRY DAY BEFORE A TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE IN. THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BRING A
GRADUAL COOL OFF AND SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH FRIDAY
BEING THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL SEE THE HIGHER AMOUNTS...ALONG A MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS.

THE FORECAST DRIES BACK OUT ON SUNDAY AS OUR TROUGH MOVES OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK UP INTO THE 90S.

DAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  95  72  94 /  20   0  10  20
HOBART OK         73  97  74  94 /  20  10  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  98  75  97 /  10   0  10  20
GAGE OK           72  94  72  87 /  40  40  40  60
PONCA CITY OK     74  96  73  94 /  30   0  10  20
DURANT OK         75  94  73  94 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/23/23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 262313
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
613 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORMAL
AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
REMAINS POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON BUT AERIAL COVERAGE FAR TOO LIMITED
TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING.
OVERALL PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL REMAIN VERY LIMITED AND ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON/
EARLY EVENING.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL. UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THURSDAY...SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO FRIDAY. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE REGION. INCREASED
CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALSO ALLOW A BRIEF BREAK FROM
THE HEAT DURING THIS TIME WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S ON SATURDAY. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...14







000
FXUS64 KTSA 262313
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
613 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORMAL
AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
REMAINS POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON BUT AERIAL COVERAGE FAR TOO LIMITED
TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING.
OVERALL PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL REMAIN VERY LIMITED AND ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON/
EARLY EVENING.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL. UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THURSDAY...SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO FRIDAY. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE REGION. INCREASED
CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALSO ALLOW A BRIEF BREAK FROM
THE HEAT DURING THIS TIME WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S ON SATURDAY. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...14







000
FXUS64 KTSA 262313
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
613 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORMAL
AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
REMAINS POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON BUT AERIAL COVERAGE FAR TOO LIMITED
TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING.
OVERALL PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL REMAIN VERY LIMITED AND ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON/
EARLY EVENING.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL. UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THURSDAY...SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO FRIDAY. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE REGION. INCREASED
CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALSO ALLOW A BRIEF BREAK FROM
THE HEAT DURING THIS TIME WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S ON SATURDAY. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...14







000
FXUS64 KTSA 262313
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
613 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORMAL
AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
REMAINS POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON BUT AERIAL COVERAGE FAR TOO LIMITED
TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING.
OVERALL PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL REMAIN VERY LIMITED AND ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON/
EARLY EVENING.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL. UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THURSDAY...SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO FRIDAY. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE REGION. INCREASED
CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALSO ALLOW A BRIEF BREAK FROM
THE HEAT DURING THIS TIME WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S ON SATURDAY. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...14







000
FXUS64 KOUN 262038
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
338 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION
IS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. DECIDED TO ADD POPS ALONG
AND JUST WEST OF I-35 CORRIDOR. EXPECT THE STORMS TO DISSPIATE
JUST AROUND SUNSET.

ALSO BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AS COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION IS EXPANDING.

MAHALE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR IN
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. THIS
ISOLATED CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT SUNSET.

TOMORROW IS OUR LAST HOT AND DRY DAY BEFORE A TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE IN. THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BRING A
GRADUAL COOL OFF AND SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH FRIDAY
BEING THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL SEE THE HIGHER AMOUNTS...ALONG A MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS.

THE FORECAST DRIES BACK OUT ON SUNDAY AS OUR TROUGH MOVES OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK UP INTO THE 90S.

DAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  95  72  94 /  20   0  10  20
HOBART OK         73  97  74  94 /  20  10  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  98  75  97 /  10   0  10  20
GAGE OK           72  94  72  87 /  40  40  40  60
PONCA CITY OK     74  96  73  94 /  30   0  10  20
DURANT OK         75  94  73  94 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

10/14



000
FXUS64 KOUN 262038
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
338 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION
IS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. DECIDED TO ADD POPS ALONG
AND JUST WEST OF I-35 CORRIDOR. EXPECT THE STORMS TO DISSPIATE
JUST AROUND SUNSET.

ALSO BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AS COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION IS EXPANDING.

MAHALE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR IN
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. THIS
ISOLATED CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT SUNSET.

TOMORROW IS OUR LAST HOT AND DRY DAY BEFORE A TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE IN. THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BRING A
GRADUAL COOL OFF AND SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH FRIDAY
BEING THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL SEE THE HIGHER AMOUNTS...ALONG A MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS.

THE FORECAST DRIES BACK OUT ON SUNDAY AS OUR TROUGH MOVES OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK UP INTO THE 90S.

DAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  95  72  94 /  20   0  10  20
HOBART OK         73  97  74  94 /  20  10  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  98  75  97 /  10   0  10  20
GAGE OK           72  94  72  87 /  40  40  40  60
PONCA CITY OK     74  96  73  94 /  30   0  10  20
DURANT OK         75  94  73  94 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

10/14



000
FXUS64 KOUN 262038
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
338 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION
IS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. DECIDED TO ADD POPS ALONG
AND JUST WEST OF I-35 CORRIDOR. EXPECT THE STORMS TO DISSPIATE
JUST AROUND SUNSET.

ALSO BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AS COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION IS EXPANDING.

MAHALE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR IN
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. THIS
ISOLATED CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT SUNSET.

TOMORROW IS OUR LAST HOT AND DRY DAY BEFORE A TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE IN. THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BRING A
GRADUAL COOL OFF AND SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH FRIDAY
BEING THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL SEE THE HIGHER AMOUNTS...ALONG A MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS.

THE FORECAST DRIES BACK OUT ON SUNDAY AS OUR TROUGH MOVES OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK UP INTO THE 90S.

DAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  95  72  94 /  20   0  10  20
HOBART OK         73  97  74  94 /  20  10  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  98  75  97 /  10   0  10  20
GAGE OK           72  94  72  87 /  40  40  40  60
PONCA CITY OK     74  96  73  94 /  30   0  10  20
DURANT OK         75  94  73  94 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

10/14



000
FXUS64 KOUN 262038
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
338 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION
IS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. DECIDED TO ADD POPS ALONG
AND JUST WEST OF I-35 CORRIDOR. EXPECT THE STORMS TO DISSPIATE
JUST AROUND SUNSET.

ALSO BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AS COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION IS EXPANDING.

MAHALE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR IN
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. THIS
ISOLATED CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT SUNSET.

TOMORROW IS OUR LAST HOT AND DRY DAY BEFORE A TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE IN. THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BRING A
GRADUAL COOL OFF AND SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH FRIDAY
BEING THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL SEE THE HIGHER AMOUNTS...ALONG A MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS.

THE FORECAST DRIES BACK OUT ON SUNDAY AS OUR TROUGH MOVES OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK UP INTO THE 90S.

DAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  95  72  94 /  20   0  10  20
HOBART OK         73  97  74  94 /  20  10  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  98  75  97 /  10   0  10  20
GAGE OK           72  94  72  87 /  40  40  40  60
PONCA CITY OK     74  96  73  94 /  30   0  10  20
DURANT OK         75  94  73  94 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

10/14



000
FXUS64 KOUN 262021
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
321 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR IN
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. THIS
ISOLATED CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT SUNSET.

TOMORROW IS OUR LAST HOT AND DRY DAY BEFORE A TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE IN. THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BRING A
GRADUAL COOL OFF AND SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH FRIDAY
BEING THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL SEE THE HIGHER AMOUNTS...ALONG A MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS.

THE FORECAST DRIES BACK OUT ON SUNDAY AS OUR TROUGH MOVES OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK UP INTO THE 90S.

DAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  95  72  94 /  10   0  10  20
HOBART OK         73  97  74  94 /  10  10  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  98  75  97 /  10   0  10  20
GAGE OK           72  94  72  87 /  30  40  40  60
PONCA CITY OK     74  96  73  94 /  30   0  10  20
DURANT OK         75  94  73  94 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

10/14



000
FXUS64 KOUN 262021
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
321 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR IN
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. THIS
ISOLATED CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT SUNSET.

TOMORROW IS OUR LAST HOT AND DRY DAY BEFORE A TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE IN. THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BRING A
GRADUAL COOL OFF AND SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH FRIDAY
BEING THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL SEE THE HIGHER AMOUNTS...ALONG A MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS.

THE FORECAST DRIES BACK OUT ON SUNDAY AS OUR TROUGH MOVES OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK UP INTO THE 90S.

DAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  95  72  94 /  10   0  10  20
HOBART OK         73  97  74  94 /  10  10  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  98  75  97 /  10   0  10  20
GAGE OK           72  94  72  87 /  30  40  40  60
PONCA CITY OK     74  96  73  94 /  30   0  10  20
DURANT OK         75  94  73  94 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

10/14




000
FXUS64 KTSA 262008
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
308 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING.
OVERALL PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL REMAIN VERY LIMITED AND ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON/
EARLY EVENING.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL. UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THURSDAY...SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO FRIDAY. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE REGION. INCREASED
CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALSO ALLOW A BRIEF BREAK FROM
THE HEAT DURING THIS TIME WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S ON SATURDAY. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  96  72  95 /  10   0  10  10
FSM   73  95  70  95 /  10   0  10  10
MLC   72  95  69  94 /  10   0  10  10
BVO   70  97  69  95 /  10   0  10  20
FYV   68  92  67  91 /  10   0  10  10
BYV   70  93  69  92 /  10   0  10  10
MKO   71  94  70  94 /  10   0  10  10
MIO   71  95  70  94 /  10   0  10  10
F10   73  94  71  93 /  10   0  10  10
HHW   72  95  70  94 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 262008
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
308 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING.
OVERALL PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL REMAIN VERY LIMITED AND ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON/
EARLY EVENING.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL. UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THURSDAY...SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO FRIDAY. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE REGION. INCREASED
CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALSO ALLOW A BRIEF BREAK FROM
THE HEAT DURING THIS TIME WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S ON SATURDAY. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  96  72  95 /  10   0  10  10
FSM   73  95  70  95 /  10   0  10  10
MLC   72  95  69  94 /  10   0  10  10
BVO   70  97  69  95 /  10   0  10  20
FYV   68  92  67  91 /  10   0  10  10
BYV   70  93  69  92 /  10   0  10  10
MKO   71  94  70  94 /  10   0  10  10
MIO   71  95  70  94 /  10   0  10  10
F10   73  94  71  93 /  10   0  10  10
HHW   72  95  70  94 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 261719
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1219 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...BUT THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE DEEP LAYERED FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY IS RESULTING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ISOLATED
CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE IN FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS BUT THE EXPECTED LOW COVERAGE PRECLUDES MENTION AT THIS
POINT IN TIME. THE ONLY CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS TO LOWER
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05





000
FXUS64 KOUN 261717
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR GAG...WWR AND PNC SITES
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE A
THREAT WITH ANY STORMS. DID NOT MENTION MENTION IN TAFS DUE TO
EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE OF STORMS.

MAHALE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...
HRRR HAS HAD A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LOCALIZED BACKED WINDS SUGGEST A WEAK
BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY...WHICH MIGHT BE A FOCAL POINT FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. ALREADY HAD ONE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN WOODS COUNTY THIS MORNING.

MAHALE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
MAY AFFECT KGAG OR KWWR THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THIS TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HOT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED. THIS MEANS AT LEAST
ANOTHER DAY OR SO OF HEAT INDICES FROM 98 TO 105 DEGREES. WE KNOW
IT SOUNDS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...BUT WE CANNOT STRESS ENOUGH THE
IMPORTANCE OF FOLLOWING HEAT SAFETY GUIDELINES. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS INTENSE SFC
HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

SO THE GOOD NEWS IS...FROM THURSDAY INTO THE COMING WEEKEND...IT
WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S
TO LOW 90S. THIS COOLER AIRMASS WILL COME IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT SET TO ENTER WESTERN OKLAHOMA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL BE A SLOW MOVER...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER
WESTERN OKLAHOMA THURSDAY. AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...LEADING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. IT APPEARS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY HOLD THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...AND WITH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT...OPTED TO NUDGE POPS UPWARD THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
WHILE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...THIS
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WIDESPREAD PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN EVENT...AND
EXPECT FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD ISSUES WILL BE MINIMAL.

THE FRONT AND UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY...BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES TO AN END. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN AS
WE HEAD INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  99  73  96  73 /  10  10   0  10
HOBART OK        101  74  99  75 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX 102  75  99  75 /  10  10   0  10
GAGE OK           98  72  95  73 /  30  30  40  40
PONCA CITY OK    100  74  97  73 /  30  30   0  10
DURANT OK        100  75  95  73 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

10/14/10



000
FXUS64 KOUN 261717
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR GAG...WWR AND PNC SITES
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE A
THREAT WITH ANY STORMS. DID NOT MENTION MENTION IN TAFS DUE TO
EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE OF STORMS.

MAHALE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...
HRRR HAS HAD A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LOCALIZED BACKED WINDS SUGGEST A WEAK
BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY...WHICH MIGHT BE A FOCAL POINT FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. ALREADY HAD ONE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN WOODS COUNTY THIS MORNING.

MAHALE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
MAY AFFECT KGAG OR KWWR THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THIS TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HOT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED. THIS MEANS AT LEAST
ANOTHER DAY OR SO OF HEAT INDICES FROM 98 TO 105 DEGREES. WE KNOW
IT SOUNDS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...BUT WE CANNOT STRESS ENOUGH THE
IMPORTANCE OF FOLLOWING HEAT SAFETY GUIDELINES. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS INTENSE SFC
HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

SO THE GOOD NEWS IS...FROM THURSDAY INTO THE COMING WEEKEND...IT
WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S
TO LOW 90S. THIS COOLER AIRMASS WILL COME IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT SET TO ENTER WESTERN OKLAHOMA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL BE A SLOW MOVER...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER
WESTERN OKLAHOMA THURSDAY. AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...LEADING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. IT APPEARS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY HOLD THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...AND WITH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT...OPTED TO NUDGE POPS UPWARD THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
WHILE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...THIS
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WIDESPREAD PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN EVENT...AND
EXPECT FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD ISSUES WILL BE MINIMAL.

THE FRONT AND UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY...BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES TO AN END. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN AS
WE HEAD INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  99  73  96  73 /  10  10   0  10
HOBART OK        101  74  99  75 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX 102  75  99  75 /  10  10   0  10
GAGE OK           98  72  95  73 /  30  30  40  40
PONCA CITY OK    100  74  97  73 /  30  30   0  10
DURANT OK        100  75  95  73 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

10/14/10




000
FXUS64 KOUN 261648
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1148 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HRRR HAS HAD A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LOCALIZED BACKED WINDS SUGGEST A WEAK
BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY...WHICH MIGHT BE A FOCAL POINT FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. ALREADY HAD ONE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN WOODS COUNTY THIS MORNING.

MAHALE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
MAY AFFECT KGAG OR KWWR THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THIS TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HOT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED. THIS MEANS AT LEAST
ANOTHER DAY OR SO OF HEAT INDICES FROM 98 TO 105 DEGREES. WE KNOW
IT SOUNDS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...BUT WE CANNOT STRESS ENOUGH THE
IMPORTANCE OF FOLLOWING HEAT SAFETY GUIDELINES. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS INTENSE SFC
HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

SO THE GOOD NEWS IS...FROM THURSDAY INTO THE COMING WEEKEND...IT
WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S
TO LOW 90S. THIS COOLER AIRMASS WILL COME IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT SET TO ENTER WESTERN OKLAHOMA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL BE A SLOW MOVER...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER
WESTERN OKLAHOMA THURSDAY. AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...LEADING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. IT APPEARS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY HOLD THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...AND WITH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT...OPTED TO NUDGE POPS UPWARD THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
WHILE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...THIS
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WIDESPREAD PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN EVENT...AND
EXPECT FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD ISSUES WILL BE MINIMAL.

THE FRONT AND UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY...BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES TO AN END. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN AS
WE HEAD INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  99  73  96  73 /  10  10   0  10
HOBART OK        101  74  99  75 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX 102  75  99  75 /  10  10   0  10
GAGE OK           98  72  95  73 /  30  30  40  40
PONCA CITY OK    100  74  97  73 /  30  30   0  10
DURANT OK        100  75  95  73 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

10/14



000
FXUS64 KOUN 261648
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1148 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HRRR HAS HAD A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LOCALIZED BACKED WINDS SUGGEST A WEAK
BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY...WHICH MIGHT BE A FOCAL POINT FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. ALREADY HAD ONE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN WOODS COUNTY THIS MORNING.

MAHALE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
MAY AFFECT KGAG OR KWWR THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THIS TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HOT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED. THIS MEANS AT LEAST
ANOTHER DAY OR SO OF HEAT INDICES FROM 98 TO 105 DEGREES. WE KNOW
IT SOUNDS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...BUT WE CANNOT STRESS ENOUGH THE
IMPORTANCE OF FOLLOWING HEAT SAFETY GUIDELINES. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS INTENSE SFC
HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

SO THE GOOD NEWS IS...FROM THURSDAY INTO THE COMING WEEKEND...IT
WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S
TO LOW 90S. THIS COOLER AIRMASS WILL COME IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT SET TO ENTER WESTERN OKLAHOMA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL BE A SLOW MOVER...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER
WESTERN OKLAHOMA THURSDAY. AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...LEADING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. IT APPEARS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY HOLD THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...AND WITH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT...OPTED TO NUDGE POPS UPWARD THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
WHILE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...THIS
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WIDESPREAD PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN EVENT...AND
EXPECT FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD ISSUES WILL BE MINIMAL.

THE FRONT AND UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY...BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES TO AN END. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN AS
WE HEAD INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  99  73  96  73 /  10  10   0  10
HOBART OK        101  74  99  75 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX 102  75  99  75 /  10  10   0  10
GAGE OK           98  72  95  73 /  30  30  40  40
PONCA CITY OK    100  74  97  73 /  30  30   0  10
DURANT OK        100  75  95  73 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

10/14



000
FXUS64 KOUN 261648
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1148 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HRRR HAS HAD A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LOCALIZED BACKED WINDS SUGGEST A WEAK
BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY...WHICH MIGHT BE A FOCAL POINT FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. ALREADY HAD ONE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN WOODS COUNTY THIS MORNING.

MAHALE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
MAY AFFECT KGAG OR KWWR THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THIS TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HOT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED. THIS MEANS AT LEAST
ANOTHER DAY OR SO OF HEAT INDICES FROM 98 TO 105 DEGREES. WE KNOW
IT SOUNDS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...BUT WE CANNOT STRESS ENOUGH THE
IMPORTANCE OF FOLLOWING HEAT SAFETY GUIDELINES. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS INTENSE SFC
HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

SO THE GOOD NEWS IS...FROM THURSDAY INTO THE COMING WEEKEND...IT
WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S
TO LOW 90S. THIS COOLER AIRMASS WILL COME IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT SET TO ENTER WESTERN OKLAHOMA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL BE A SLOW MOVER...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER
WESTERN OKLAHOMA THURSDAY. AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...LEADING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. IT APPEARS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY HOLD THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...AND WITH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT...OPTED TO NUDGE POPS UPWARD THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
WHILE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...THIS
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WIDESPREAD PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN EVENT...AND
EXPECT FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD ISSUES WILL BE MINIMAL.

THE FRONT AND UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY...BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES TO AN END. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN AS
WE HEAD INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  99  73  96  73 /  10  10   0  10
HOBART OK        101  74  99  75 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX 102  75  99  75 /  10  10   0  10
GAGE OK           98  72  95  73 /  30  30  40  40
PONCA CITY OK    100  74  97  73 /  30  30   0  10
DURANT OK        100  75  95  73 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

10/14



000
FXUS64 KOUN 261648
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1148 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HRRR HAS HAD A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LOCALIZED BACKED WINDS SUGGEST A WEAK
BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY...WHICH MIGHT BE A FOCAL POINT FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. ALREADY HAD ONE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN WOODS COUNTY THIS MORNING.

MAHALE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
MAY AFFECT KGAG OR KWWR THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THIS TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HOT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED. THIS MEANS AT LEAST
ANOTHER DAY OR SO OF HEAT INDICES FROM 98 TO 105 DEGREES. WE KNOW
IT SOUNDS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...BUT WE CANNOT STRESS ENOUGH THE
IMPORTANCE OF FOLLOWING HEAT SAFETY GUIDELINES. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS INTENSE SFC
HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

SO THE GOOD NEWS IS...FROM THURSDAY INTO THE COMING WEEKEND...IT
WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S
TO LOW 90S. THIS COOLER AIRMASS WILL COME IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT SET TO ENTER WESTERN OKLAHOMA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL BE A SLOW MOVER...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER
WESTERN OKLAHOMA THURSDAY. AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...LEADING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. IT APPEARS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY HOLD THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...AND WITH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT...OPTED TO NUDGE POPS UPWARD THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
WHILE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...THIS
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WIDESPREAD PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN EVENT...AND
EXPECT FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD ISSUES WILL BE MINIMAL.

THE FRONT AND UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY...BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES TO AN END. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN AS
WE HEAD INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  99  73  96  73 /  10  10   0  10
HOBART OK        101  74  99  75 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX 102  75  99  75 /  10  10   0  10
GAGE OK           98  72  95  73 /  30  30  40  40
PONCA CITY OK    100  74  97  73 /  30  30   0  10
DURANT OK        100  75  95  73 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

10/14



000
FXUS64 KTSA 261625
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1125 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE DEEP LAYERED FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY IS RESULTING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ISOLATED
CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE IN FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS BUT THE EXPECTED LOW COVERAGE PRECLUDES MENTION AT THIS
POINT IN TIME. THE ONLY CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS TO LOWER
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 261625
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1125 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE DEEP LAYERED FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY IS RESULTING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ISOLATED
CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE IN FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS BUT THE EXPECTED LOW COVERAGE PRECLUDES MENTION AT THIS
POINT IN TIME. THE ONLY CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS TO LOWER
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 261625
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1125 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE DEEP LAYERED FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY IS RESULTING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ISOLATED
CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE IN FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS BUT THE EXPECTED LOW COVERAGE PRECLUDES MENTION AT THIS
POINT IN TIME. THE ONLY CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS TO LOWER
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 261625
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1125 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE DEEP LAYERED FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY IS RESULTING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ISOLATED
CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE IN FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS BUT THE EXPECTED LOW COVERAGE PRECLUDES MENTION AT THIS
POINT IN TIME. THE ONLY CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS TO LOWER
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 261140
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
640 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FEW TO SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND SOUTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
HOWEVER...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF TAF
SITES FOR NOW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AT
ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE LIES FROM NORTHERN MEXICO EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST STATES...SANDWICHED BETWEEN A PAIR OF
HURRICANES...ONE IN THE PACIFIC AND ONE IN THE ATLANTIC. AN UPPER
LOW IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND IS MOVING WESTWARD. AN AXIS OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE EXTENDS NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW AND WILL AT LEAST BRUSH
SOUTHEAST OK INTO WESTERN AR. ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS ARE THUS
POSSIBLE IN THE EAST FOR TODAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ON STRONG THRU
WEDNESDAY...AND WILL BE BROKEN DOWN ON ITS WEST SIDE BY AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...BRING A POTENTIALLY SOGGY START TO THE WEEKEND. RAIN
CHANCES DECREASE AND SLIDE EAST SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TRENDING DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST.

THE UPPER PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS FORECAST TO BECOME FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES SINKING
FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE COUNTRY. THIS COULD BE THE FIRST INDICATION OF
THINGS TO COME AS WE APPROACH THE FALL SEASON. AS A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS AND WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR STORM
ACTIVITY. AT THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WITH THIS
FRONT WILL BE NEXT TUESDAY.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   99  75  98  74 /  10   0  10  10
FSM   98  74  96  72 /  10  10  10  10
MLC   97  73  93  71 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   99  69  98  69 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   97  69  94  66 /  10  10  10  10
BYV   94  70  93  69 /  10  10  10  10
MKO   96  72  97  71 /  10   0  10  10
MIO   97  72  97  72 /  10  10  10  10
F10   97  73  95  71 /  10   0  10  10
HHW   96  73  96  70 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20





000
FXUS64 KOUN 261126
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
626 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
MAY AFFECT KGAG OR KWWR THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HOT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED. THIS MEANS AT LEAST
ANOTHER DAY OR SO OF HEAT INDICES FROM 98 TO 105 DEGREES. WE KNOW
IT SOUNDS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...BUT WE CANNOT STRESS ENOUGH THE
IMPORTANCE OF FOLLOWING HEAT SAFETY GUIDELINES. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS INTENSE SFC
HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

SO THE GOOD NEWS IS...FROM THURSDAY INTO THE COMING WEEKEND...IT
WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S
TO LOW 90S. THIS COOLER AIRMASS WILL COME IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT SET TO ENTER WESTERN OKLAHOMA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL BE A SLOW MOVER...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER
WESTERN OKLAHOMA THURSDAY. AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...LEADING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. IT APPEARS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY HOLD THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...AND WITH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT...OPTED TO NUDGE POPS UPWARD THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
WHILE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...THIS
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WIDESPREAD PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN EVENT...AND
EXPECT FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD ISSUES WILL BE MINIMAL.

THE FRONT AND UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY...BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES TO AN END. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN AS
WE HEAD INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  99  73  96  73 /   0   0   0  10
HOBART OK        101  74  99  75 /   0   0  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX 102  75  99  75 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK           99  72  95  73 /  20  20  40  40
PONCA CITY OK    100  74  97  73 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK        100  75  95  73 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

MBS/AUSTIN




000
FXUS64 KOUN 261126
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
626 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
MAY AFFECT KGAG OR KWWR THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HOT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED. THIS MEANS AT LEAST
ANOTHER DAY OR SO OF HEAT INDICES FROM 98 TO 105 DEGREES. WE KNOW
IT SOUNDS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...BUT WE CANNOT STRESS ENOUGH THE
IMPORTANCE OF FOLLOWING HEAT SAFETY GUIDELINES. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS INTENSE SFC
HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

SO THE GOOD NEWS IS...FROM THURSDAY INTO THE COMING WEEKEND...IT
WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S
TO LOW 90S. THIS COOLER AIRMASS WILL COME IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT SET TO ENTER WESTERN OKLAHOMA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL BE A SLOW MOVER...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER
WESTERN OKLAHOMA THURSDAY. AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...LEADING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. IT APPEARS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY HOLD THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...AND WITH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT...OPTED TO NUDGE POPS UPWARD THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
WHILE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...THIS
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WIDESPREAD PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN EVENT...AND
EXPECT FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD ISSUES WILL BE MINIMAL.

THE FRONT AND UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY...BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES TO AN END. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN AS
WE HEAD INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  99  73  96  73 /   0   0   0  10
HOBART OK        101  74  99  75 /   0   0  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX 102  75  99  75 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK           99  72  95  73 /  20  20  40  40
PONCA CITY OK    100  74  97  73 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK        100  75  95  73 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

MBS/AUSTIN



000
FXUS64 KOUN 260836
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
336 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HOT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED. THIS MEANS AT LEAST
ANOTHER DAY OR SO OF HEAT INDICES FROM 98 TO 105 DEGREES. WE KNOW
IT SOUNDS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...BUT WE CANNOT STRESS ENOUGH THE
IMPORTANCE OF FOLLOWING HEAT SAFETY GUIDELINES. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS INTENSE SFC
HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

SO THE GOOD NEWS IS...FROM THURSDAY INTO THE COMING WEEKEND...IT
WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S
TO LOW 90S. THIS COOLER AIRMASS WILL COME IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT SET TO ENTER WESTERN OKLAHOMA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL BE A SLOW MOVER...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER
WESTERN OKLAHOMA THURSDAY. AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...LEADING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. IT APPEARS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY HOLD THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...AND WITH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT...OPTED TO NUDGE POPS UPWARD THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
WHILE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...THIS
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WIDESPREAD PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN EVENT...AND
EXPECT FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD ISSUES WILL BE MINIMAL.

THE FRONT AND UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY...BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES TO AN END. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN AS
WE HEAD INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  99  73  96  73 /   0   0   0  10
HOBART OK        101  74  99  75 /   0   0  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX 102  75  99  75 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK           99  72  95  73 /  20  20  40  40
PONCA CITY OK    100  74  97  73 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK        100  75  95  73 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

MBS/AUSTIN



000
FXUS64 KTSA 260809
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
309 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE LIES FROM NORTHERN MEXICO EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST STATES...SANDWICHED BETWEEN A PAIR OF
HURRICANES...ONE IN THE PACIFIC AND ONE IN THE ATLANTIC. AN UPPER
LOW IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND IS MOVING WESTWARD. AN AXIS OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE EXTENDS NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW AND WILL AT LEAST BRUSH
SOUTHEAST OK INTO WESTERN AR. ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS ARE THUS
POSSIBLE IN THE EAST FOR TODAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ON STRONG THRU
WEDNESDAY...AND WILL BE BROKEN DOWN ON ITS WEST SIDE BY AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...BRING A POTENTIALLY SOGGY START TO THE WEEKEND. RAIN
CHANCES DECREASE AND SLIDE EAST SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TRENDING DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST.

THE UPPER PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS FORECAST TO BECOME FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES SINKING
FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE COUNTRY. THIS COULD BE THE FIRST INDICATION OF
THINGS TO COME AS WE APPROACH THE FALL SEASON. AS A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS AND WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR STORM
ACTIVITY. AT THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WITH THIS
FRONT WILL BE NEXT TUESDAY.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   99  75  98  74 /  10   0  10  10
FSM   98  74  96  72 /  10  10  10  10
MLC   97  73  93  71 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   99  69  98  69 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   97  69  94  66 /  10  10  10  10
BYV   94  70  93  69 /  10  10  10  10
MKO   96  72  97  71 /  10   0  10  10
MIO   97  72  97  72 /  10  10  10  10
F10   97  73  95  71 /  10   0  10  10
HHW   96  73  96  70 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 260809
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
309 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE LIES FROM NORTHERN MEXICO EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST STATES...SANDWICHED BETWEEN A PAIR OF
HURRICANES...ONE IN THE PACIFIC AND ONE IN THE ATLANTIC. AN UPPER
LOW IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND IS MOVING WESTWARD. AN AXIS OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE EXTENDS NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW AND WILL AT LEAST BRUSH
SOUTHEAST OK INTO WESTERN AR. ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS ARE THUS
POSSIBLE IN THE EAST FOR TODAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ON STRONG THRU
WEDNESDAY...AND WILL BE BROKEN DOWN ON ITS WEST SIDE BY AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...BRING A POTENTIALLY SOGGY START TO THE WEEKEND. RAIN
CHANCES DECREASE AND SLIDE EAST SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TRENDING DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST.

THE UPPER PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS FORECAST TO BECOME FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES SINKING
FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE COUNTRY. THIS COULD BE THE FIRST INDICATION OF
THINGS TO COME AS WE APPROACH THE FALL SEASON. AS A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS AND WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR STORM
ACTIVITY. AT THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WITH THIS
FRONT WILL BE NEXT TUESDAY.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   99  75  98  74 /  10   0  10  10
FSM   98  74  96  72 /  10  10  10  10
MLC   97  73  93  71 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   99  69  98  69 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   97  69  94  66 /  10  10  10  10
BYV   94  70  93  69 /  10  10  10  10
MKO   96  72  97  71 /  10   0  10  10
MIO   97  72  97  72 /  10  10  10  10
F10   97  73  95  71 /  10   0  10  10
HHW   96  73  96  70 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 260809
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
309 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE LIES FROM NORTHERN MEXICO EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST STATES...SANDWICHED BETWEEN A PAIR OF
HURRICANES...ONE IN THE PACIFIC AND ONE IN THE ATLANTIC. AN UPPER
LOW IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND IS MOVING WESTWARD. AN AXIS OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE EXTENDS NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW AND WILL AT LEAST BRUSH
SOUTHEAST OK INTO WESTERN AR. ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS ARE THUS
POSSIBLE IN THE EAST FOR TODAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ON STRONG THRU
WEDNESDAY...AND WILL BE BROKEN DOWN ON ITS WEST SIDE BY AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...BRING A POTENTIALLY SOGGY START TO THE WEEKEND. RAIN
CHANCES DECREASE AND SLIDE EAST SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TRENDING DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST.

THE UPPER PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS FORECAST TO BECOME FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES SINKING
FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE COUNTRY. THIS COULD BE THE FIRST INDICATION OF
THINGS TO COME AS WE APPROACH THE FALL SEASON. AS A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS AND WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR STORM
ACTIVITY. AT THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WITH THIS
FRONT WILL BE NEXT TUESDAY.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   99  75  98  74 /  10   0  10  10
FSM   98  74  96  72 /  10  10  10  10
MLC   97  73  93  71 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   99  69  98  69 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   97  69  94  66 /  10  10  10  10
BYV   94  70  93  69 /  10  10  10  10
MKO   96  72  97  71 /  10   0  10  10
MIO   97  72  97  72 /  10  10  10  10
F10   97  73  95  71 /  10   0  10  10
HHW   96  73  96  70 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 260809
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
309 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE LIES FROM NORTHERN MEXICO EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST STATES...SANDWICHED BETWEEN A PAIR OF
HURRICANES...ONE IN THE PACIFIC AND ONE IN THE ATLANTIC. AN UPPER
LOW IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND IS MOVING WESTWARD. AN AXIS OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE EXTENDS NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW AND WILL AT LEAST BRUSH
SOUTHEAST OK INTO WESTERN AR. ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS ARE THUS
POSSIBLE IN THE EAST FOR TODAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ON STRONG THRU
WEDNESDAY...AND WILL BE BROKEN DOWN ON ITS WEST SIDE BY AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...BRING A POTENTIALLY SOGGY START TO THE WEEKEND. RAIN
CHANCES DECREASE AND SLIDE EAST SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TRENDING DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST.

THE UPPER PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS FORECAST TO BECOME FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES SINKING
FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE COUNTRY. THIS COULD BE THE FIRST INDICATION OF
THINGS TO COME AS WE APPROACH THE FALL SEASON. AS A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS AND WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR STORM
ACTIVITY. AT THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WITH THIS
FRONT WILL BE NEXT TUESDAY.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   99  75  98  74 /  10   0  10  10
FSM   98  74  96  72 /  10  10  10  10
MLC   97  73  93  71 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   99  69  98  69 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   97  69  94  66 /  10  10  10  10
BYV   94  70  93  69 /  10  10  10  10
MKO   96  72  97  71 /  10   0  10  10
MIO   97  72  97  72 /  10  10  10  10
F10   97  73  95  71 /  10   0  10  10
HHW   96  73  96  70 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30





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