Home > Products > State Listing > Oklahoma Data
Latest:
 AFDOUN |  AFDTSA |
  [top]

000
FXUS64 KTSA 291138
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
638 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
ANOTHER MESSY FORECAST WITH CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGHOUT...ALONG
WITH INHERENT CIG/VSBY ISSUES. THE PHILOSOPHY FOR THIS FORECAST
WILL GO WITH THE IDEA OF AN ENDING MORNING ROUND FOLLOWED BY AN
AFTERNOON/EVENING ROUND WHEN AN MCV LIFTS UP INTO THE REGION. AN
END TO WHAT SEEMS LIKE ENDLESS ROUNDS OF MAY STORMS IS ON THE
HORIZON TONIGHT.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS AN
UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LARGELY MERIDIONAL UPPER
FLOW AIDING IN NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE PRECIP THROUGH THE
MORNING AND ALSO EXPECT A SLOW SHIFT TO THE EAST. FORECAST PRECIP
H20 VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES OVER A LARGE PART OF THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER REMAINS RATHER LIMITED AS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF PRECIP
THIS MORNING SHOULD LIMIT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THUS THE FLASH
FLOODING THREAT REMAINS THE BIG CONCERN DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL OF LATE. THE WATCH WILL BE EXPANDED ACROSS WESTERN
ARKANSAS WHERE AT LEAST LOCALIZED THREAT WILL EXIST.

COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH NORTHWARD
TRANSPORT OF DEEP MOISTURE RESULTING IN CONTINUES HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING THREAT. THIS FRONT WILL ULTIMATELY BRING A VERY WELCOME
CHANGE IN AIRMASS TO NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND
EVENTUALLY THE REST OF THE AREA BY EVENING. LATEST MODEL TRENDS
ARE TAPERING OFF PRECIP FASTER NOW WITH MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN
DONE BEFORE 00Z SUNDAY AND GIVEN THIS WILL PUSH FLASH FLOOD WATCH
EXPIRATION TO THAT TIME.

SHOULD FINALLY GET A FEW DRY DAYS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LOW CHANCES
OF PRECIP WILL RETURN IN MAINLY EASTERN AREAS AS REMNANT LOW
BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  64  74  56 /  80  70  30  10
FSM   79  66  77  62 /  80  70  60  30
MLC   79  66  74  60 /  80  70  50  20
BVO   79  63  73  52 /  80  70  20  10
FYV   76  63  72  57 /  80  70  60  30
BYV   77  63  73  57 /  80  70  60  30
MKO   78  64  73  59 /  80  70  40  20
MIO   77  63  72  56 /  80  70  30  10
F10   80  65  72  58 /  80  70  40  10
HHW   79  67  78  62 /  80  70  70  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 291138
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
638 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
ANOTHER MESSY FORECAST WITH CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGHOUT...ALONG
WITH INHERENT CIG/VSBY ISSUES. THE PHILOSOPHY FOR THIS FORECAST
WILL GO WITH THE IDEA OF AN ENDING MORNING ROUND FOLLOWED BY AN
AFTERNOON/EVENING ROUND WHEN AN MCV LIFTS UP INTO THE REGION. AN
END TO WHAT SEEMS LIKE ENDLESS ROUNDS OF MAY STORMS IS ON THE
HORIZON TONIGHT.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS AN
UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LARGELY MERIDIONAL UPPER
FLOW AIDING IN NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE PRECIP THROUGH THE
MORNING AND ALSO EXPECT A SLOW SHIFT TO THE EAST. FORECAST PRECIP
H20 VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES OVER A LARGE PART OF THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER REMAINS RATHER LIMITED AS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF PRECIP
THIS MORNING SHOULD LIMIT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THUS THE FLASH
FLOODING THREAT REMAINS THE BIG CONCERN DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL OF LATE. THE WATCH WILL BE EXPANDED ACROSS WESTERN
ARKANSAS WHERE AT LEAST LOCALIZED THREAT WILL EXIST.

COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH NORTHWARD
TRANSPORT OF DEEP MOISTURE RESULTING IN CONTINUES HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING THREAT. THIS FRONT WILL ULTIMATELY BRING A VERY WELCOME
CHANGE IN AIRMASS TO NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND
EVENTUALLY THE REST OF THE AREA BY EVENING. LATEST MODEL TRENDS
ARE TAPERING OFF PRECIP FASTER NOW WITH MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN
DONE BEFORE 00Z SUNDAY AND GIVEN THIS WILL PUSH FLASH FLOOD WATCH
EXPIRATION TO THAT TIME.

SHOULD FINALLY GET A FEW DRY DAYS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LOW CHANCES
OF PRECIP WILL RETURN IN MAINLY EASTERN AREAS AS REMNANT LOW
BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  64  74  56 /  80  70  30  10
FSM   79  66  77  62 /  80  70  60  30
MLC   79  66  74  60 /  80  70  50  20
BVO   79  63  73  52 /  80  70  20  10
FYV   76  63  72  57 /  80  70  60  30
BYV   77  63  73  57 /  80  70  60  30
MKO   78  64  73  59 /  80  70  40  20
MIO   77  63  72  56 /  80  70  30  10
F10   80  65  72  58 /  80  70  40  10
HHW   79  67  78  62 /  80  70  70  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...30






000
FXUS64 KTSA 290920
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
420 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS AN
UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LARGELY MERIDIONAL UPPER
FLOW AIDING IN NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE PRECIP THROUGH THE
MORNING AND ALSO EXPECT A SLOW SHIFT TO THE EAST. FORECAST PRECIP
H20 VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES OVER A LARGE PART OF THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER REMAINS RATHER LIMITED AS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF PRECIP
THIS MORNING SHOULD LIMIT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THUS THE FLASH
FLOODING THREAT REMAINS THE BIG CONCERN DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL OF LATE. THE WATCH WILL BE EXPANDED ACROSS WESTERN
ARKANSAS WHERE AT LEAST LOCALIZED THREAT WILL EXIST.

COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH NORTHWARD
TRANSPORT OF DEEP MOISTURE RESULTING IN CONTINUES HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING THREAT. THIS FRONT WILL ULTIMATELY BRING A VERY WELCOME
CHANGE IN AIRMASS TO NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND
EVENTUALLY THE REST OF THE AREA BY EVENING. LATEST MODEL TRENDS
ARE TAPERING OFF PRECIP FASTER NOW WITH MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN
DONE BEFORE 00Z SUNDAY AND GIVEN THIS WILL PUSH FLASH FLOOD WATCH
EXPIRATION TO THAT TIME.

SHOULD FINALLY GET A FEW DRY DAYS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LOW CHANCES
OF PRECIP WILL RETURN IN MAINLY EASTERN AREAS AS REMNANT LOW
BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  64  74  56 /  80  70  30  10
FSM   79  66  77  62 /  80  70  60  30
MLC   79  66  74  60 /  80  70  50  20
BVO   79  63  73  52 /  80  70  20  10
FYV   76  63  72  57 /  80  70  60  30
BYV   77  63  73  57 /  80  70  60  30
MKO   78  64  73  59 /  80  70  40  20
MIO   77  63  72  56 /  80  70  30  10
F10   80  65  72  58 /  80  70  40  10
HHW   79  67  78  62 /  80  70  70  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....14








000
FXUS64 KTSA 290920
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
420 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS AN
UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LARGELY MERIDIONAL UPPER
FLOW AIDING IN NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE PRECIP THROUGH THE
MORNING AND ALSO EXPECT A SLOW SHIFT TO THE EAST. FORECAST PRECIP
H20 VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES OVER A LARGE PART OF THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER REMAINS RATHER LIMITED AS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF PRECIP
THIS MORNING SHOULD LIMIT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THUS THE FLASH
FLOODING THREAT REMAINS THE BIG CONCERN DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL OF LATE. THE WATCH WILL BE EXPANDED ACROSS WESTERN
ARKANSAS WHERE AT LEAST LOCALIZED THREAT WILL EXIST.

COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH NORTHWARD
TRANSPORT OF DEEP MOISTURE RESULTING IN CONTINUES HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING THREAT. THIS FRONT WILL ULTIMATELY BRING A VERY WELCOME
CHANGE IN AIRMASS TO NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND
EVENTUALLY THE REST OF THE AREA BY EVENING. LATEST MODEL TRENDS
ARE TAPERING OFF PRECIP FASTER NOW WITH MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN
DONE BEFORE 00Z SUNDAY AND GIVEN THIS WILL PUSH FLASH FLOOD WATCH
EXPIRATION TO THAT TIME.

SHOULD FINALLY GET A FEW DRY DAYS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LOW CHANCES
OF PRECIP WILL RETURN IN MAINLY EASTERN AREAS AS REMNANT LOW
BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  64  74  56 /  80  70  30  10
FSM   79  66  77  62 /  80  70  60  30
MLC   79  66  74  60 /  80  70  50  20
BVO   79  63  73  52 /  80  70  20  10
FYV   76  63  72  57 /  80  70  60  30
BYV   77  63  73  57 /  80  70  60  30
MKO   78  64  73  59 /  80  70  40  20
MIO   77  63  72  56 /  80  70  30  10
F10   80  65  72  58 /  80  70  40  10
HHW   79  67  78  62 /  80  70  70  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....14






  [top]

000
FXUS64 KOUN 290856
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
356 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE AND SOME RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES COULD
BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
MUCH LIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS. WILL LIKELY SEE MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.

INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS BOTH TODAY
AND TONIGHT... HOWEVER HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
RISK AND IMPACT ACROSS THE AREA.

COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN ON
SATURDAY AND THIS FRONT WILL BRING IN A DRIER AIRMASS. THIS ALONG
WITH RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD BRING AND END TO THE PRECIP FOR A WHILE
AT LEAST. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL END THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH A BIT
EARLIER AS WELL. WILL ALLOW THE WATCH TO END AT 7 PM SATURDAY.

AFTER SATURDAY... MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  80  62  73  57 /  40  70  30   0
HOBART OK         80  60  74  54 /  40  70  20   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  82  64  77  58 /  40  70  40  10
GAGE OK           79  55  72  50 /  40  40  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     79  60  73  54 /  50  70  10   0
DURANT OK         80  65  76  60 /  70  70  60  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR OKZ004>048-
     050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

26/30



000
FXUS64 KOUN 290856
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
356 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE AND SOME RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES COULD
BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
MUCH LIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS. WILL LIKELY SEE MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.

INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS BOTH TODAY
AND TONIGHT... HOWEVER HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
RISK AND IMPACT ACROSS THE AREA.

COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN ON
SATURDAY AND THIS FRONT WILL BRING IN A DRIER AIRMASS. THIS ALONG
WITH RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD BRING AND END TO THE PRECIP FOR A WHILE
AT LEAST. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL END THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH A BIT
EARLIER AS WELL. WILL ALLOW THE WATCH TO END AT 7 PM SATURDAY.

AFTER SATURDAY... MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  80  62  73  57 /  40  70  30   0
HOBART OK         80  60  74  54 /  40  70  20   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  82  64  77  58 /  40  70  40  10
GAGE OK           79  55  72  50 /  40  40  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     79  60  73  54 /  50  70  10   0
DURANT OK         80  65  76  60 /  70  70  60  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR OKZ004>048-
     050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

26/30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 290457
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1157 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD... WITH MID AND HIGH
OVERCAST. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY AFFECT ALL SITES BEGINNING BY ABOUT 1 OR
2 AM IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA... AND A BIT LATER IN WESTERN ARKANSAS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BUT WILL PROBABLY
RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT.

NOTE: AN ONGOING PROBLEM WITH THE VIZ SENSOR AT KRVS CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE FALSE LOW VIS READINGS. WE EXPECT P6SM CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL. HOWEVER... IF REPORTED WX BECOMES ANYTHING OTHER THAN
HZ... VIZ MAY THEN ACTUALLY BE LOWER THAN 6SM.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ONGOING MCS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO TEXAS WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT
THE MCS WILL EXPAND NORTH OVERNIGHT ALLOWING MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TO GET IN ON THE ACTION. A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER
RISK...MAINLY FROM DAMAGING WINDS...WILL EXIST FOR AT LEAST A FEW
MORE HOURS BUT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE
THE BIGGER ISSUE IN OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE
MADE SOME CHANGES TO FIRST PERIOD ELEMENTS TO FIT THE CURRENT AND
EXPECTED CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 290457
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1157 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD... WITH MID AND HIGH
OVERCAST. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY AFFECT ALL SITES BEGINNING BY ABOUT 1 OR
2 AM IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA... AND A BIT LATER IN WESTERN ARKANSAS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BUT WILL PROBABLY
RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT.

NOTE: AN ONGOING PROBLEM WITH THE VIZ SENSOR AT KRVS CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE FALSE LOW VIS READINGS. WE EXPECT P6SM CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL. HOWEVER... IF REPORTED WX BECOMES ANYTHING OTHER THAN
HZ... VIZ MAY THEN ACTUALLY BE LOWER THAN 6SM.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ONGOING MCS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO TEXAS WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT
THE MCS WILL EXPAND NORTH OVERNIGHT ALLOWING MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TO GET IN ON THE ACTION. A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER
RISK...MAINLY FROM DAMAGING WINDS...WILL EXIST FOR AT LEAST A FEW
MORE HOURS BUT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE
THE BIGGER ISSUE IN OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE
MADE SOME CHANGES TO FIRST PERIOD ELEMENTS TO FIT THE CURRENT AND
EXPECTED CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 290457
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1157 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD... WITH MID AND HIGH
OVERCAST. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY AFFECT ALL SITES BEGINNING BY ABOUT 1 OR
2 AM IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA... AND A BIT LATER IN WESTERN ARKANSAS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BUT WILL PROBABLY
RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT.

NOTE: AN ONGOING PROBLEM WITH THE VIZ SENSOR AT KRVS CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE FALSE LOW VIS READINGS. WE EXPECT P6SM CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL. HOWEVER... IF REPORTED WX BECOMES ANYTHING OTHER THAN
HZ... VIZ MAY THEN ACTUALLY BE LOWER THAN 6SM.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ONGOING MCS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO TEXAS WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT
THE MCS WILL EXPAND NORTH OVERNIGHT ALLOWING MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TO GET IN ON THE ACTION. A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER
RISK...MAINLY FROM DAMAGING WINDS...WILL EXIST FOR AT LEAST A FEW
MORE HOURS BUT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE
THE BIGGER ISSUE IN OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE
MADE SOME CHANGES TO FIRST PERIOD ELEMENTS TO FIT THE CURRENT AND
EXPECTED CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 290457
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1157 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD... WITH MID AND HIGH
OVERCAST. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY AFFECT ALL SITES BEGINNING BY ABOUT 1 OR
2 AM IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA... AND A BIT LATER IN WESTERN ARKANSAS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BUT WILL PROBABLY
RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT.

NOTE: AN ONGOING PROBLEM WITH THE VIZ SENSOR AT KRVS CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE FALSE LOW VIS READINGS. WE EXPECT P6SM CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL. HOWEVER... IF REPORTED WX BECOMES ANYTHING OTHER THAN
HZ... VIZ MAY THEN ACTUALLY BE LOWER THAN 6SM.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ONGOING MCS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO TEXAS WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT
THE MCS WILL EXPAND NORTH OVERNIGHT ALLOWING MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TO GET IN ON THE ACTION. A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER
RISK...MAINLY FROM DAMAGING WINDS...WILL EXIST FOR AT LEAST A FEW
MORE HOURS BUT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE
THE BIGGER ISSUE IN OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE
MADE SOME CHANGES TO FIRST PERIOD ELEMENTS TO FIT THE CURRENT AND
EXPECTED CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 290241
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
941 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONGOING MCS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO TEXAS WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT
THE MCS WILL EXPAND NORTH OVERNIGHT ALLOWING MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TO GET IN ON THE ACTION. A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER
RISK...MAINLY FROM DAMAGING WINDS...WILL EXIST FOR AT LEAST A FEW
MORE HOURS BUT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE
THE BIGGER ISSUE IN OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE
MADE SOME CHANGES TO FIRST PERIOD ELEMENTS TO FIT THE CURRENT AND
EXPECTED CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....05

PLATE






000
FXUS64 KTSA 290241
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
941 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONGOING MCS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO TEXAS WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT
THE MCS WILL EXPAND NORTH OVERNIGHT ALLOWING MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TO GET IN ON THE ACTION. A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER
RISK...MAINLY FROM DAMAGING WINDS...WILL EXIST FOR AT LEAST A FEW
MORE HOURS BUT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE
THE BIGGER ISSUE IN OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE
MADE SOME CHANGES TO FIRST PERIOD ELEMENTS TO FIT THE CURRENT AND
EXPECTED CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....05

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KOUN 282343
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
643 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO PRECIP/WX OVERNIGHT...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE AT A DECENT CLIP ACROSS WRN N
TX... WITH MULTIPLE REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS 45 TO 60 MPH ALONG THE
PRECEDING GUST FRONT. NORTH OF THE LINE... IN SW OK... STORMS
REMAIN MARGINALLY SEVERE... SLOWLY LIFTING NWRD... WITH SEVERAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BEING LAID OUT. TRENDS SUGGEST THE LARGER LINE
IS SLOWLY STARTING TO WEAKEN... BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN SEVERE TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS INSTABILITY LESSENS
WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING. THE BIG CHALLENGE AT THE MOMENT
WILL BE THE IMPACTS OF THE LLJ LATER THIS EVENING. AS IT RAMPS
UP... AS IS ANTICIPATED... STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY
AND LIFT E/NE ACROSS SRN OK... POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL
OK. DEPENDING ON THE FLAVOR OF WRF YOU CHOOSE... CONSIDERING 00Z
RUNS ARE NOT IN YET... AND WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM THE HRRR... IT
LOOKS LIKE AN MCV WILL DEVELOP SOMEWHERE NEAR THE RED RIVER AND
LIFT E/NE INTO CENTRAL OR SOUTH CENTRAL OK. COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT... CURRENT IR SAT SHOWS A DECENT MCS ONCE AGAIN... BUT
POSITIONED MORE TO THE E/SE TONIGHT... OVER WRN N TX AND EXTENDING
BACK THROUGH THE BIG COUNTRY INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

AVIATION...29/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
ANOTHER ACTIVE AVIATION PERIOD... SEVERE CONVECTION WILL IMPACT
KSPS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD... WITH GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 60 MPH
POSSIBLE AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH
RELATIVELY QUICKLY... WITH -RA/VCSH BY 01 TO 02Z. TSRA WILL ALSO
SLOWLY LIFT NORTH IMPACTING KLAW THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
THE PERIOD. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT... EXPECT STORMS TO
EVOLVE WITH THE INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL JET... SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT... STILL HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND TIMING... BUT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT TEMPOS FROM CENTRAL OK THROUGH SWRN OK THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. STAY AWARE FOR AMENDMENTS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OUR ATTENTION REMAINS SQUARELY FOCUSED ON HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING AND
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM MEANDERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EXPECT STORMS TO
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. STORMS HAVE
REMAINED SOMEWHAT DISCRETE SO FAR...BUT WITH COLD POOL MERGERS...A
LARGE EAST OR SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COMPLEX IS LIKELY. A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES MAY ACCOMPANY THE INITIAL STORMS...BUT THE THREAT WILL
TRANSITION MORE TO A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND/FLOODING THREAT THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE COMPLEX SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE FIRST PART OF
TOMORROW. ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY THEN FORM LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND MOVE FROM WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...BRINGING ANOTHER BATCH OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO AREAS THE
RECEIVE HEAVY RAIN TODAY. SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL ALSO LIKELY
ACCOMPANY STORMS TOMORROW...BUT THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN AND FLOODING.

A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
TEXAS OVERNIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. STORMS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL...WHILE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL MAY EXIST
ALONG/BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. AGAIN...PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
THE SAME AREAS WILL RESULT IN A NOTED FLASH FLOODING THREAT...AND
INCREASED THREAT OF WORSENING RIVER FLOODING.

WITH THE CONTINUED RISK OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING...WILL GO
AHEAD AND KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTACT THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.
THOUGH PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA MAY NOT SEE QUITE AS MUCH
RAIN AS OTHER AREAS...HEAVY RAIN IN A SHORT DURATION MAY STILL
POSE A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IN LOCALIZED AREAS.

ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY
NIGHT...A COOLER DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILL INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH SHOULD CUT OFF RAIN CHANCES FOR AT
LEAST A FEW DAYS.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  80  62  73 /  70  60  70  40
HOBART OK         63  80  60  74 /  60  40  70  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  65  83  64  77 / 100  40  70  50
GAGE OK           61  80  56  72 /  50  40  50  20
PONCA CITY OK     66  81  61  73 /  70  50  60  20
DURANT OK         67  81  65  77 /  90  60  70  70

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 282343
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
643 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO PRECIP/WX OVERNIGHT...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE AT A DECENT CLIP ACROSS WRN N
TX... WITH MULTIPLE REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS 45 TO 60 MPH ALONG THE
PRECEDING GUST FRONT. NORTH OF THE LINE... IN SW OK... STORMS
REMAIN MARGINALLY SEVERE... SLOWLY LIFTING NWRD... WITH SEVERAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BEING LAID OUT. TRENDS SUGGEST THE LARGER LINE
IS SLOWLY STARTING TO WEAKEN... BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN SEVERE TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS INSTABILITY LESSENS
WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING. THE BIG CHALLENGE AT THE MOMENT
WILL BE THE IMPACTS OF THE LLJ LATER THIS EVENING. AS IT RAMPS
UP... AS IS ANTICIPATED... STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY
AND LIFT E/NE ACROSS SRN OK... POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL
OK. DEPENDING ON THE FLAVOR OF WRF YOU CHOOSE... CONSIDERING 00Z
RUNS ARE NOT IN YET... AND WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM THE HRRR... IT
LOOKS LIKE AN MCV WILL DEVELOP SOMEWHERE NEAR THE RED RIVER AND
LIFT E/NE INTO CENTRAL OR SOUTH CENTRAL OK. COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT... CURRENT IR SAT SHOWS A DECENT MCS ONCE AGAIN... BUT
POSITIONED MORE TO THE E/SE TONIGHT... OVER WRN N TX AND EXTENDING
BACK THROUGH THE BIG COUNTRY INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

AVIATION...29/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
ANOTHER ACTIVE AVIATION PERIOD... SEVERE CONVECTION WILL IMPACT
KSPS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD... WITH GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 60 MPH
POSSIBLE AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH
RELATIVELY QUICKLY... WITH -RA/VCSH BY 01 TO 02Z. TSRA WILL ALSO
SLOWLY LIFT NORTH IMPACTING KLAW THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
THE PERIOD. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT... EXPECT STORMS TO
EVOLVE WITH THE INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL JET... SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT... STILL HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND TIMING... BUT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT TEMPOS FROM CENTRAL OK THROUGH SWRN OK THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. STAY AWARE FOR AMENDMENTS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OUR ATTENTION REMAINS SQUARELY FOCUSED ON HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING AND
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM MEANDERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EXPECT STORMS TO
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. STORMS HAVE
REMAINED SOMEWHAT DISCRETE SO FAR...BUT WITH COLD POOL MERGERS...A
LARGE EAST OR SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COMPLEX IS LIKELY. A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES MAY ACCOMPANY THE INITIAL STORMS...BUT THE THREAT WILL
TRANSITION MORE TO A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND/FLOODING THREAT THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE COMPLEX SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE FIRST PART OF
TOMORROW. ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY THEN FORM LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND MOVE FROM WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...BRINGING ANOTHER BATCH OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO AREAS THE
RECEIVE HEAVY RAIN TODAY. SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL ALSO LIKELY
ACCOMPANY STORMS TOMORROW...BUT THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN AND FLOODING.

A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
TEXAS OVERNIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. STORMS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL...WHILE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL MAY EXIST
ALONG/BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. AGAIN...PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
THE SAME AREAS WILL RESULT IN A NOTED FLASH FLOODING THREAT...AND
INCREASED THREAT OF WORSENING RIVER FLOODING.

WITH THE CONTINUED RISK OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING...WILL GO
AHEAD AND KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTACT THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.
THOUGH PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA MAY NOT SEE QUITE AS MUCH
RAIN AS OTHER AREAS...HEAVY RAIN IN A SHORT DURATION MAY STILL
POSE A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IN LOCALIZED AREAS.

ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY
NIGHT...A COOLER DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILL INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH SHOULD CUT OFF RAIN CHANCES FOR AT
LEAST A FEW DAYS.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  80  62  73 /  70  60  70  40
HOBART OK         63  80  60  74 /  60  40  70  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  65  83  64  77 / 100  40  70  50
GAGE OK           61  80  56  72 /  50  40  50  20
PONCA CITY OK     66  81  61  73 /  70  50  60  20
DURANT OK         67  81  65  77 /  90  60  70  70

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 282309 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
609 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...29/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
ANOTHER ACTIVE AVIATION PERIOD... SEVERE CONVECTION WILL IMPACT
KSPS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD... WITH GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 60 MPH
POSSIBLE AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH
RELATIVELY QUICKLY... WITH -RA/VCSH BY 01 TO 02Z. TSRA WILL ALSO
SLOWLY LIFT NORTH IMPACTING KLAW THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
THE PERIOD. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT... EXPECT STORMS TO
EVOLVE WITH THE INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL JET... SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT... STILL HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND TIMING... BUT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT TEMPOS FROM CENTRAL OK THROUGH SWRN OK THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. STAY AWARE FOR AMENDMENTS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OUR ATTENTION REMAINS SQUARELY FOCUSED ON HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING AND
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM MEANDERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EXPECT STORMS TO
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. STORMS HAVE
REMAINED SOMEWHAT DISCRETE SO FAR...BUT WITH COLD POOL MERGERS...A
LARGE EAST OR SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COMPLEX IS LIKELY. A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES MAY ACCOMPANY THE INITIAL STORMS...BUT THE THREAT WILL
TRANSITION MORE TO A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND/FLOODING THREAT THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE COMPLEX SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE FIRST PART OF
TOMORROW. ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY THEN FORM LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND MOVE FROM WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...BRINGING ANOTHER BATCH OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO AREAS THE
RECEIVE HEAVY RAIN TODAY. SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL ALSO LIKELY
ACCOMPANY STORMS TOMORROW...BUT THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN AND FLOODING.

A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
TEXAS OVERNIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. STORMS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL...WHILE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL MAY EXIST
ALONG/BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. AGAIN...PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
THE SAME AREAS WILL RESULT IN A NOTED FLASH FLOODING THREAT...AND
INCREASED THREAT OF WORSENING RIVER FLOODING.

WITH THE CONTINUED RISK OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING...WILL GO
AHEAD AND KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTACT THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.
THOUGH PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA MAY NOT SEE QUITE AS MUCH
RAIN AS OTHER AREAS...HEAVY RAIN IN A SHORT DURATION MAY STILL
POSE A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IN LOCALIZED AREAS.

ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY
NIGHT...A COOLER DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILL INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH SHOULD CUT OFF RAIN CHANCES FOR AT
LEAST A FEW DAYS.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  80  62  73 /  70  60  70  40
HOBART OK         63  80  60  74 /  60  40  70  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  65  83  64  77 / 100  40  70  50
GAGE OK           61  80  56  72 /  50  40  50  20
PONCA CITY OK     66  81  61  73 /  70  50  60  20
DURANT OK         67  81  65  77 /  90  60  70  70

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 282309 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
609 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...29/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
ANOTHER ACTIVE AVIATION PERIOD... SEVERE CONVECTION WILL IMPACT
KSPS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD... WITH GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 60 MPH
POSSIBLE AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH
RELATIVELY QUICKLY... WITH -RA/VCSH BY 01 TO 02Z. TSRA WILL ALSO
SLOWLY LIFT NORTH IMPACTING KLAW THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
THE PERIOD. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT... EXPECT STORMS TO
EVOLVE WITH THE INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL JET... SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT... STILL HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND TIMING... BUT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT TEMPOS FROM CENTRAL OK THROUGH SWRN OK THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. STAY AWARE FOR AMENDMENTS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OUR ATTENTION REMAINS SQUARELY FOCUSED ON HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING AND
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM MEANDERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EXPECT STORMS TO
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. STORMS HAVE
REMAINED SOMEWHAT DISCRETE SO FAR...BUT WITH COLD POOL MERGERS...A
LARGE EAST OR SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COMPLEX IS LIKELY. A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES MAY ACCOMPANY THE INITIAL STORMS...BUT THE THREAT WILL
TRANSITION MORE TO A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND/FLOODING THREAT THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE COMPLEX SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE FIRST PART OF
TOMORROW. ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY THEN FORM LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND MOVE FROM WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...BRINGING ANOTHER BATCH OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO AREAS THE
RECEIVE HEAVY RAIN TODAY. SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL ALSO LIKELY
ACCOMPANY STORMS TOMORROW...BUT THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN AND FLOODING.

A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
TEXAS OVERNIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. STORMS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL...WHILE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL MAY EXIST
ALONG/BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. AGAIN...PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
THE SAME AREAS WILL RESULT IN A NOTED FLASH FLOODING THREAT...AND
INCREASED THREAT OF WORSENING RIVER FLOODING.

WITH THE CONTINUED RISK OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING...WILL GO
AHEAD AND KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTACT THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.
THOUGH PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA MAY NOT SEE QUITE AS MUCH
RAIN AS OTHER AREAS...HEAVY RAIN IN A SHORT DURATION MAY STILL
POSE A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IN LOCALIZED AREAS.

ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY
NIGHT...A COOLER DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILL INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH SHOULD CUT OFF RAIN CHANCES FOR AT
LEAST A FEW DAYS.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  80  62  73 /  70  60  70  40
HOBART OK         63  80  60  74 /  60  40  70  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  65  83  64  77 / 100  40  70  50
GAGE OK           61  80  56  72 /  50  40  50  20
PONCA CITY OK     66  81  61  73 /  70  50  60  20
DURANT OK         67  81  65  77 /  90  60  70  70

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KTSA 282300
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD... WITH MID AND HIGH
OVERCAST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERIODICALLY AFFECT ANY SITE
BEGINNING AFTER ABOUT 9Z... THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

NOTE: ONGOING PROBLEM WITH VIZ SENSOR AT KRVS CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE FALSE LOW VIS READINGS. WE EXPECT P6SM CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL. HOWEVER... IF REPORTED WX BECOMES ANYTHING OTHER THAN
HZ... VIZ MAY THEN POSSIBLY BE LOWER.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ONE AREA OF RAIN/THUNDER LINGERS ACROSS NW AR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM. THIS CONVECTION
LOOKS TO IMPACT EASTERN OK FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW..SO HAVE ESSENTIALLY FLIP FLOPPED POPS FROM MORNING TO
AFTERNOON. FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ONCE THIS
BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH THE REGION...RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
FINALLY DIMINISH AS THE LONG AWAITED AIRMASS CHANGE BEGINS TO TAKE
HOLD. THROUGH THIS PERIOD HOWEVER...LOCALLY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN AS IS
INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA. BEYOND SUNDAY...THE EARLY
PART OF THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE KEPT DRY FOR NOW. UPPER SYSTEM THAT
HAD CLEARED THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER MODEST
RIDGING THAT TAKES PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. IT LOOKS AT THIS
TIME THAT THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE WEAKNESS...SO HAVE KEPT LOW POPS CONFINED TO
FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP
MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THE EARLY PERIODS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...SOME COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE DRIER AIR SETTLES OVER REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE SOME DURING THE WEEK AS A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND RETURNS...AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES
REMAIN LOW.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 282300
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD... WITH MID AND HIGH
OVERCAST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERIODICALLY AFFECT ANY SITE
BEGINNING AFTER ABOUT 9Z... THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

NOTE: ONGOING PROBLEM WITH VIZ SENSOR AT KRVS CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE FALSE LOW VIS READINGS. WE EXPECT P6SM CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL. HOWEVER... IF REPORTED WX BECOMES ANYTHING OTHER THAN
HZ... VIZ MAY THEN POSSIBLY BE LOWER.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ONE AREA OF RAIN/THUNDER LINGERS ACROSS NW AR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM. THIS CONVECTION
LOOKS TO IMPACT EASTERN OK FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW..SO HAVE ESSENTIALLY FLIP FLOPPED POPS FROM MORNING TO
AFTERNOON. FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ONCE THIS
BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH THE REGION...RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
FINALLY DIMINISH AS THE LONG AWAITED AIRMASS CHANGE BEGINS TO TAKE
HOLD. THROUGH THIS PERIOD HOWEVER...LOCALLY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN AS IS
INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA. BEYOND SUNDAY...THE EARLY
PART OF THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE KEPT DRY FOR NOW. UPPER SYSTEM THAT
HAD CLEARED THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER MODEST
RIDGING THAT TAKES PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. IT LOOKS AT THIS
TIME THAT THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE WEAKNESS...SO HAVE KEPT LOW POPS CONFINED TO
FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP
MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THE EARLY PERIODS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...SOME COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE DRIER AIR SETTLES OVER REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE SOME DURING THE WEEK AS A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND RETURNS...AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES
REMAIN LOW.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06







000
FXUS64 KTSA 282300
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD... WITH MID AND HIGH
OVERCAST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERIODICALLY AFFECT ANY SITE
BEGINNING AFTER ABOUT 9Z... THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

NOTE: ONGOING PROBLEM WITH VIZ SENSOR AT KRVS CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE FALSE LOW VIS READINGS. WE EXPECT P6SM CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL. HOWEVER... IF REPORTED WX BECOMES ANYTHING OTHER THAN
HZ... VIZ MAY THEN POSSIBLY BE LOWER.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ONE AREA OF RAIN/THUNDER LINGERS ACROSS NW AR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM. THIS CONVECTION
LOOKS TO IMPACT EASTERN OK FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW..SO HAVE ESSENTIALLY FLIP FLOPPED POPS FROM MORNING TO
AFTERNOON. FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ONCE THIS
BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH THE REGION...RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
FINALLY DIMINISH AS THE LONG AWAITED AIRMASS CHANGE BEGINS TO TAKE
HOLD. THROUGH THIS PERIOD HOWEVER...LOCALLY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN AS IS
INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA. BEYOND SUNDAY...THE EARLY
PART OF THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE KEPT DRY FOR NOW. UPPER SYSTEM THAT
HAD CLEARED THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER MODEST
RIDGING THAT TAKES PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. IT LOOKS AT THIS
TIME THAT THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE WEAKNESS...SO HAVE KEPT LOW POPS CONFINED TO
FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP
MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THE EARLY PERIODS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...SOME COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE DRIER AIR SETTLES OVER REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE SOME DURING THE WEEK AS A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND RETURNS...AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES
REMAIN LOW.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06







000
FXUS64 KTSA 282300
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD... WITH MID AND HIGH
OVERCAST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERIODICALLY AFFECT ANY SITE
BEGINNING AFTER ABOUT 9Z... THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

NOTE: ONGOING PROBLEM WITH VIZ SENSOR AT KRVS CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE FALSE LOW VIS READINGS. WE EXPECT P6SM CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL. HOWEVER... IF REPORTED WX BECOMES ANYTHING OTHER THAN
HZ... VIZ MAY THEN POSSIBLY BE LOWER.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ONE AREA OF RAIN/THUNDER LINGERS ACROSS NW AR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM. THIS CONVECTION
LOOKS TO IMPACT EASTERN OK FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW..SO HAVE ESSENTIALLY FLIP FLOPPED POPS FROM MORNING TO
AFTERNOON. FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ONCE THIS
BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH THE REGION...RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
FINALLY DIMINISH AS THE LONG AWAITED AIRMASS CHANGE BEGINS TO TAKE
HOLD. THROUGH THIS PERIOD HOWEVER...LOCALLY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN AS IS
INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA. BEYOND SUNDAY...THE EARLY
PART OF THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE KEPT DRY FOR NOW. UPPER SYSTEM THAT
HAD CLEARED THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER MODEST
RIDGING THAT TAKES PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. IT LOOKS AT THIS
TIME THAT THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE WEAKNESS...SO HAVE KEPT LOW POPS CONFINED TO
FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP
MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THE EARLY PERIODS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...SOME COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE DRIER AIR SETTLES OVER REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE SOME DURING THE WEEK AS A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND RETURNS...AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES
REMAIN LOW.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06







000
FXUS64 KTSA 282300
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD... WITH MID AND HIGH
OVERCAST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERIODICALLY AFFECT ANY SITE
BEGINNING AFTER ABOUT 9Z... THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

NOTE: ONGOING PROBLEM WITH VIZ SENSOR AT KRVS CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE FALSE LOW VIS READINGS. WE EXPECT P6SM CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL. HOWEVER... IF REPORTED WX BECOMES ANYTHING OTHER THAN
HZ... VIZ MAY THEN POSSIBLY BE LOWER.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ONE AREA OF RAIN/THUNDER LINGERS ACROSS NW AR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM. THIS CONVECTION
LOOKS TO IMPACT EASTERN OK FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW..SO HAVE ESSENTIALLY FLIP FLOPPED POPS FROM MORNING TO
AFTERNOON. FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ONCE THIS
BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH THE REGION...RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
FINALLY DIMINISH AS THE LONG AWAITED AIRMASS CHANGE BEGINS TO TAKE
HOLD. THROUGH THIS PERIOD HOWEVER...LOCALLY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN AS IS
INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA. BEYOND SUNDAY...THE EARLY
PART OF THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE KEPT DRY FOR NOW. UPPER SYSTEM THAT
HAD CLEARED THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER MODEST
RIDGING THAT TAKES PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. IT LOOKS AT THIS
TIME THAT THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE WEAKNESS...SO HAVE KEPT LOW POPS CONFINED TO
FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP
MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THE EARLY PERIODS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...SOME COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE DRIER AIR SETTLES OVER REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE SOME DURING THE WEEK AS A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND RETURNS...AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES
REMAIN LOW.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06







000
FXUS64 KTSA 282300
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD... WITH MID AND HIGH
OVERCAST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERIODICALLY AFFECT ANY SITE
BEGINNING AFTER ABOUT 9Z... THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

NOTE: ONGOING PROBLEM WITH VIZ SENSOR AT KRVS CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE FALSE LOW VIS READINGS. WE EXPECT P6SM CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL. HOWEVER... IF REPORTED WX BECOMES ANYTHING OTHER THAN
HZ... VIZ MAY THEN POSSIBLY BE LOWER.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ONE AREA OF RAIN/THUNDER LINGERS ACROSS NW AR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM. THIS CONVECTION
LOOKS TO IMPACT EASTERN OK FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW..SO HAVE ESSENTIALLY FLIP FLOPPED POPS FROM MORNING TO
AFTERNOON. FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ONCE THIS
BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH THE REGION...RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
FINALLY DIMINISH AS THE LONG AWAITED AIRMASS CHANGE BEGINS TO TAKE
HOLD. THROUGH THIS PERIOD HOWEVER...LOCALLY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN AS IS
INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA. BEYOND SUNDAY...THE EARLY
PART OF THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE KEPT DRY FOR NOW. UPPER SYSTEM THAT
HAD CLEARED THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER MODEST
RIDGING THAT TAKES PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. IT LOOKS AT THIS
TIME THAT THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE WEAKNESS...SO HAVE KEPT LOW POPS CONFINED TO
FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP
MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THE EARLY PERIODS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...SOME COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE DRIER AIR SETTLES OVER REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE SOME DURING THE WEEK AS A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND RETURNS...AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES
REMAIN LOW.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06







000
FXUS64 KOUN 282030
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
330 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
OUR ATTENTION REMAINS SQUARELY FOCUSED ON HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING AND
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM MEANDERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EXPECT STORMS TO
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. STORMS HAVE
REMAINED SOMEWHAT DISCRETE SO FAR...BUT WITH COLD POOL MERGERS...A
LARGE EAST OR SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COMPLEX IS LIKELY. A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES MAY ACCOMPANY THE INITIAL STORMS...BUT THE THREAT WILL
TRANSITION MORE TO A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND/FLOODING THREAT THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE COMPLEX SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE FIRST PART OF
TOMORROW. ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY THEN FORM LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND MOVE FROM WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...BRINGING ANOTHER BATCH OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO AREAS THE
RECEIVE HEAVY RAIN TODAY. SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL ALSO LIKELY
ACCOMPANY STORMS TOMORROW...BUT THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN AND FLOODING.

A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
TEXAS OVERNIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. STORMS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL...WHILE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL MAY EXIST
ALONG/BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. AGAIN...PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
THE SAME AREAS WILL RESULT IN A NOTED FLASH FLOODING THREAT...AND
INCREASED THREAT OF WORSENING RIVER FLOODING.

WITH THE CONTINUED RISK OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING...WILL GO
AHEAD AND KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTACT THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.
THOUGH PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA MAY NOT SEE QUITE AS MUCH
RAIN AS OTHER AREAS...HEAVY RAIN IN A SHORT DURATION MAY STILL
POSE A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IN LOCALIZED AREAS.

ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY
NIGHT...A COOLER DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILL INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH SHOULD CUT OFF RAIN CHANCES FOR AT
LEAST A FEW DAYS.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  80  62  73 /  70  60  70  40
HOBART OK         63  80  60  74 /  60  40  70  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  65  83  64  77 / 100  40  70  50
GAGE OK           61  80  56  72 /  50  40  50  20
PONCA CITY OK     66  81  61  73 /  70  50  60  20
DURANT OK         67  81  65  77 /  90  60  70  70

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

06/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 282030
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
330 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
OUR ATTENTION REMAINS SQUARELY FOCUSED ON HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING AND
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM MEANDERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EXPECT STORMS TO
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. STORMS HAVE
REMAINED SOMEWHAT DISCRETE SO FAR...BUT WITH COLD POOL MERGERS...A
LARGE EAST OR SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COMPLEX IS LIKELY. A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES MAY ACCOMPANY THE INITIAL STORMS...BUT THE THREAT WILL
TRANSITION MORE TO A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND/FLOODING THREAT THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE COMPLEX SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE FIRST PART OF
TOMORROW. ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY THEN FORM LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND MOVE FROM WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...BRINGING ANOTHER BATCH OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO AREAS THE
RECEIVE HEAVY RAIN TODAY. SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL ALSO LIKELY
ACCOMPANY STORMS TOMORROW...BUT THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN AND FLOODING.

A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
TEXAS OVERNIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. STORMS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL...WHILE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL MAY EXIST
ALONG/BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. AGAIN...PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
THE SAME AREAS WILL RESULT IN A NOTED FLASH FLOODING THREAT...AND
INCREASED THREAT OF WORSENING RIVER FLOODING.

WITH THE CONTINUED RISK OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING...WILL GO
AHEAD AND KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTACT THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.
THOUGH PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA MAY NOT SEE QUITE AS MUCH
RAIN AS OTHER AREAS...HEAVY RAIN IN A SHORT DURATION MAY STILL
POSE A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IN LOCALIZED AREAS.

ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY
NIGHT...A COOLER DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILL INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH SHOULD CUT OFF RAIN CHANCES FOR AT
LEAST A FEW DAYS.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  80  62  73 /  70  60  70  40
HOBART OK         63  80  60  74 /  60  40  70  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  65  83  64  77 / 100  40  70  50
GAGE OK           61  80  56  72 /  50  40  50  20
PONCA CITY OK     66  81  61  73 /  70  50  60  20
DURANT OK         67  81  65  77 /  90  60  70  70

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

06/84



000
FXUS64 KTSA 282001
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
301 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONE AREA OF RAIN/THUNDER LINGERS ACROSS NW AR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM. THIS CONVECTION
LOOKS TO IMPACT EASTERN OK FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW..SO HAVE ESSENTIALLY FLIP FLOPPED POPS FROM MORNING TO
AFTERNOON. FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ONCE THIS
BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH THE REGION...RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
FINALLY DIMINISH AS THE LONG AWAITED AIRMASS CHANGE BEGINS TO TAKE
HOLD. THROUGH THIS PERIOD HOWEVER...LOCALLY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN AS IS
INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA. BEYOND SUNDAY...THE EARLY
PART OF THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE KEPT DRY FOR NOW. UPPER SYSTEM THAT
HAD CLEARED THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER MODEST
RIDGING THAT TAKES PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. IT LOOKS AT THIS
TIME THAT THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE WEAKNESS...SO HAVE KEPT LOW POPS CONFINED TO
FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP
MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THE EARLY PERIODS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...SOME COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE DRIER AIR SETTLES OVER REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE SOME DURING THE WEEK AS A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND RETURNS...AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES
REMAIN LOW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  81  65  75 /  70  70  70  50
FSM   67  78  66  79 /  50  70  50  70
MLC   67  79  66  75 /  70  70  50  70
BVO   66  81  63  73 /  70  70  70  40
FYV   64  76  62  73 /  50  70  50  70
BYV   66  77  63  73 /  50  70  50  70
MKO   65  79  64  74 /  60  70  70  60
MIO   65  78  61  73 /  60  70  70  60
F10   67  80  65  73 /  70  70  70  50
HHW   68  78  66  79 /  50  70  50  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....23






000
FXUS64 KTSA 282001
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
301 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONE AREA OF RAIN/THUNDER LINGERS ACROSS NW AR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM. THIS CONVECTION
LOOKS TO IMPACT EASTERN OK FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW..SO HAVE ESSENTIALLY FLIP FLOPPED POPS FROM MORNING TO
AFTERNOON. FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ONCE THIS
BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH THE REGION...RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
FINALLY DIMINISH AS THE LONG AWAITED AIRMASS CHANGE BEGINS TO TAKE
HOLD. THROUGH THIS PERIOD HOWEVER...LOCALLY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN AS IS
INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA. BEYOND SUNDAY...THE EARLY
PART OF THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE KEPT DRY FOR NOW. UPPER SYSTEM THAT
HAD CLEARED THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER MODEST
RIDGING THAT TAKES PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. IT LOOKS AT THIS
TIME THAT THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE WEAKNESS...SO HAVE KEPT LOW POPS CONFINED TO
FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP
MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THE EARLY PERIODS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...SOME COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE DRIER AIR SETTLES OVER REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE SOME DURING THE WEEK AS A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND RETURNS...AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES
REMAIN LOW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  81  65  75 /  70  70  70  50
FSM   67  78  66  79 /  50  70  50  70
MLC   67  79  66  75 /  70  70  50  70
BVO   66  81  63  73 /  70  70  70  40
FYV   64  76  62  73 /  50  70  50  70
BYV   66  77  63  73 /  50  70  50  70
MKO   65  79  64  74 /  60  70  70  60
MIO   65  78  61  73 /  60  70  70  60
F10   67  80  65  73 /  70  70  70  50
HHW   68  78  66  79 /  50  70  50  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....23





000
FXUS64 KOUN 281749
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1249 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS RATHER LOW.
WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE...AND
ACCOMPANYING IMPACTS TO VSBYS/CIGS. SCT STORMS WILL BE PREVALENT
MUCH OF TODAY AT WESTERN TERMINALS. BY THIS EVENING...A COMPLEX OF
STORMS LOOKS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD...BRINGING AT LEAST
BRIEF IMPACTS TO VSBYS MOST TERMINALS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE
GUSTY AND VARIABLE IF THIS COMPLEX DEVELOPS. STORMS SHOULD MOVE
EAST OF ALL TERMINALS BY 09Z...WITH PATCHY MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE
IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM COMPLEX.

AUSTIN

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS COMPLICATED BY A COUPLE OF CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS OVER OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. IT APPEARS THAT
THE MCS OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT...AFFECTING MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY MID-AFTERNOON.
THIS MCS SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...BUT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF ITS
INFLUENCE...SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ERUPT ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ONCE AGAIN SPREAD EAST OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA.

SINCE THE POSITION AND QUANTITY OF PRECIPITATION IN LATER PERIODS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS TODAY AND BEYOND...A SORT OF
AVERAGE OF THE VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE THE MOST
REASONABLE APPROACH TO FORECASTING RAINFALL AND RAIN CHANCES INTO
THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL TEND TO FOCUS THE RAINFALL FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SOMEWHAT REDUCING THE APPARENT RANDOMNESS OF
RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT...SOMEWHAT
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL SETTLE INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS SHOW A RATHER
ANEMIC MOISTURE/TEMPERATURE RETURN INTO MIDWEEK...KEEPING RAIN
CHANCES FAIRLY LOW.

THOSE SAME MODELS SHOW SOME HINT OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FOR THE
FIRST WEEKEND IN JUNE...BUT THAT IS WELL BEYOND THE RANGE OF THIS
FORECAST.

THE OPPORTUNITY FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...AND WE WILL MAINTAIN THE EXISTING FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  80  63  73 /  50  50  70  40
HOBART OK         63  80  61  74 /  50  50  70  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  65  82  64  77 /  70  50  70  50
GAGE OK           61  81  57  72 /  50  50  50  10
PONCA CITY OK     66  81  61  72 /  50  60  60  20
DURANT OK         67  80  65  78 /  60  60  60  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

06/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 281749
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1249 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS RATHER LOW.
WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE...AND
ACCOMPANYING IMPACTS TO VSBYS/CIGS. SCT STORMS WILL BE PREVALENT
MUCH OF TODAY AT WESTERN TERMINALS. BY THIS EVENING...A COMPLEX OF
STORMS LOOKS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD...BRINGING AT LEAST
BRIEF IMPACTS TO VSBYS MOST TERMINALS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE
GUSTY AND VARIABLE IF THIS COMPLEX DEVELOPS. STORMS SHOULD MOVE
EAST OF ALL TERMINALS BY 09Z...WITH PATCHY MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE
IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM COMPLEX.

AUSTIN

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS COMPLICATED BY A COUPLE OF CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS OVER OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. IT APPEARS THAT
THE MCS OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT...AFFECTING MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY MID-AFTERNOON.
THIS MCS SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...BUT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF ITS
INFLUENCE...SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ERUPT ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ONCE AGAIN SPREAD EAST OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA.

SINCE THE POSITION AND QUANTITY OF PRECIPITATION IN LATER PERIODS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS TODAY AND BEYOND...A SORT OF
AVERAGE OF THE VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE THE MOST
REASONABLE APPROACH TO FORECASTING RAINFALL AND RAIN CHANCES INTO
THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL TEND TO FOCUS THE RAINFALL FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SOMEWHAT REDUCING THE APPARENT RANDOMNESS OF
RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT...SOMEWHAT
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL SETTLE INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS SHOW A RATHER
ANEMIC MOISTURE/TEMPERATURE RETURN INTO MIDWEEK...KEEPING RAIN
CHANCES FAIRLY LOW.

THOSE SAME MODELS SHOW SOME HINT OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FOR THE
FIRST WEEKEND IN JUNE...BUT THAT IS WELL BEYOND THE RANGE OF THIS
FORECAST.

THE OPPORTUNITY FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...AND WE WILL MAINTAIN THE EXISTING FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  80  63  73 /  50  50  70  40
HOBART OK         63  80  61  74 /  50  50  70  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  65  82  64  77 /  70  50  70  50
GAGE OK           61  81  57  72 /  50  50  50  10
PONCA CITY OK     66  81  61  72 /  50  60  60  20
DURANT OK         67  80  65  78 /  60  60  60  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

06/84



000
FXUS64 KTSA 281722
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1222 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WEAKENING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH
THROUGH FAR EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG
WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE HEAVIER RAIN.
EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS AFTER 22Z. COULD HAVE ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX IMPACT THE TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT...AND HAVE INCLUDED
VCTS FOR ALL TAF SITES BY 09-12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MCS CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WITH SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE NOTED ACROSS FAR SE
OK. SEVERAL ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AS WELL
WITH MORNING RAIN AMOUNTS ACROSS ERN OK AROUND
1 TO OVER 3 INCHES. TREND WILL BE FOR DECREASING
POPS GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  81  65  75 /  70  70  70  50
FSM   67  82  66  80 /  50  70  50  70
MLC   67  80  67  78 /  70  70  50  70
BVO   67  81  64  74 /  70  70  70  40
FYV   64  79  63  76 /  50  70  50  70
BYV   66  80  64  76 /  50  70  50  70
MKO   66  81  65  76 /  60  70  70  60
MIO   67  80  63  75 /  60  70  70  60
F10   67  81  66  75 /  70  70  70  50
HHW   68  80  65  79 /  50  70  50  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18





000
FXUS64 KTSA 281722
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1222 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WEAKENING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH
THROUGH FAR EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG
WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE HEAVIER RAIN.
EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS AFTER 22Z. COULD HAVE ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX IMPACT THE TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT...AND HAVE INCLUDED
VCTS FOR ALL TAF SITES BY 09-12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MCS CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WITH SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE NOTED ACROSS FAR SE
OK. SEVERAL ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AS WELL
WITH MORNING RAIN AMOUNTS ACROSS ERN OK AROUND
1 TO OVER 3 INCHES. TREND WILL BE FOR DECREASING
POPS GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  81  65  75 /  70  70  70  50
FSM   67  82  66  80 /  50  70  50  70
MLC   67  80  67  78 /  70  70  50  70
BVO   67  81  64  74 /  70  70  70  40
FYV   64  79  63  76 /  50  70  50  70
BYV   66  80  64  76 /  50  70  50  70
MKO   66  81  65  76 /  60  70  70  60
MIO   67  80  63  75 /  60  70  70  60
F10   67  81  66  75 /  70  70  70  50
HHW   68  80  65  79 /  50  70  50  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18





000
FXUS64 KTSA 281722
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1222 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WEAKENING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH
THROUGH FAR EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG
WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE HEAVIER RAIN.
EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS AFTER 22Z. COULD HAVE ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX IMPACT THE TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT...AND HAVE INCLUDED
VCTS FOR ALL TAF SITES BY 09-12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MCS CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WITH SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE NOTED ACROSS FAR SE
OK. SEVERAL ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AS WELL
WITH MORNING RAIN AMOUNTS ACROSS ERN OK AROUND
1 TO OVER 3 INCHES. TREND WILL BE FOR DECREASING
POPS GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  81  65  75 /  70  70  70  50
FSM   67  82  66  80 /  50  70  50  70
MLC   67  80  67  78 /  70  70  50  70
BVO   67  81  64  74 /  70  70  70  40
FYV   64  79  63  76 /  50  70  50  70
BYV   66  80  64  76 /  50  70  50  70
MKO   66  81  65  76 /  60  70  70  60
MIO   67  80  63  75 /  60  70  70  60
F10   67  81  66  75 /  70  70  70  50
HHW   68  80  65  79 /  50  70  50  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18





000
FXUS64 KTSA 281722
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1222 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WEAKENING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH
THROUGH FAR EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG
WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE HEAVIER RAIN.
EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS AFTER 22Z. COULD HAVE ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX IMPACT THE TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT...AND HAVE INCLUDED
VCTS FOR ALL TAF SITES BY 09-12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MCS CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WITH SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE NOTED ACROSS FAR SE
OK. SEVERAL ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AS WELL
WITH MORNING RAIN AMOUNTS ACROSS ERN OK AROUND
1 TO OVER 3 INCHES. TREND WILL BE FOR DECREASING
POPS GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  81  65  75 /  70  70  70  50
FSM   67  82  66  80 /  50  70  50  70
MLC   67  80  67  78 /  70  70  50  70
BVO   67  81  64  74 /  70  70  70  40
FYV   64  79  63  76 /  50  70  50  70
BYV   66  80  64  76 /  50  70  50  70
MKO   66  81  65  76 /  60  70  70  60
MIO   67  80  63  75 /  60  70  70  60
F10   67  81  66  75 /  70  70  70  50
HHW   68  80  65  79 /  50  70  50  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18





000
FXUS64 KTSA 281722
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1222 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WEAKENING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH
THROUGH FAR EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG
WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE HEAVIER RAIN.
EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS AFTER 22Z. COULD HAVE ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX IMPACT THE TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT...AND HAVE INCLUDED
VCTS FOR ALL TAF SITES BY 09-12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MCS CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WITH SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE NOTED ACROSS FAR SE
OK. SEVERAL ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AS WELL
WITH MORNING RAIN AMOUNTS ACROSS ERN OK AROUND
1 TO OVER 3 INCHES. TREND WILL BE FOR DECREASING
POPS GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  81  65  75 /  70  70  70  50
FSM   67  82  66  80 /  50  70  50  70
MLC   67  80  67  78 /  70  70  50  70
BVO   67  81  64  74 /  70  70  70  40
FYV   64  79  63  76 /  50  70  50  70
BYV   66  80  64  76 /  50  70  50  70
MKO   66  81  65  76 /  60  70  70  60
MIO   67  80  63  75 /  60  70  70  60
F10   67  81  66  75 /  70  70  70  50
HHW   68  80  65  79 /  50  70  50  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18





000
FXUS64 KTSA 281722
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1222 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WEAKENING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH
THROUGH FAR EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG
WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE HEAVIER RAIN.
EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS AFTER 22Z. COULD HAVE ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX IMPACT THE TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT...AND HAVE INCLUDED
VCTS FOR ALL TAF SITES BY 09-12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MCS CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WITH SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE NOTED ACROSS FAR SE
OK. SEVERAL ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AS WELL
WITH MORNING RAIN AMOUNTS ACROSS ERN OK AROUND
1 TO OVER 3 INCHES. TREND WILL BE FOR DECREASING
POPS GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  81  65  75 /  70  70  70  50
FSM   67  82  66  80 /  50  70  50  70
MLC   67  80  67  78 /  70  70  50  70
BVO   67  81  64  74 /  70  70  70  40
FYV   64  79  63  76 /  50  70  50  70
BYV   66  80  64  76 /  50  70  50  70
MKO   66  81  65  76 /  60  70  70  60
MIO   67  80  63  75 /  60  70  70  60
F10   67  81  66  75 /  70  70  70  50
HHW   68  80  65  79 /  50  70  50  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 281548
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1048 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
MCS CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WITH SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE NOTED ACROSS FAR SE
OK. SEVERAL ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AS WELL
WITH MORNING RAIN AMOUNTS ACROSS ERN OK AROUND
1 TO OVER 3 INCHES. TREND WILL BE FOR DECREASING
POPS GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   82  68  81  65 /  70  50  60  70
FSM   84  67  82  66 / 100  30  60  50
MLC   82  67  80  67 / 100  50  60  70
BVO   80  67  81  64 /  70  50  60  70
FYV   80  64  79  63 /  90  30  60  60
BYV   81  66  80  64 /  80  30  60  60
MKO   82  66  81  65 / 100  50  60  70
MIO   81  67  80  63 / 100  40  60  70
F10   82  67  81  66 /  80  50  60  70
HHW   83  68  80  65 / 100  50  60  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....23






000
FXUS64 KTSA 281548
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1048 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
MCS CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WITH SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE NOTED ACROSS FAR SE
OK. SEVERAL ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AS WELL
WITH MORNING RAIN AMOUNTS ACROSS ERN OK AROUND
1 TO OVER 3 INCHES. TREND WILL BE FOR DECREASING
POPS GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   82  68  81  65 /  70  50  60  70
FSM   84  67  82  66 / 100  30  60  50
MLC   82  67  80  67 / 100  50  60  70
BVO   80  67  81  64 /  70  50  60  70
FYV   80  64  79  63 /  90  30  60  60
BYV   81  66  80  64 /  80  30  60  60
MKO   82  66  81  65 / 100  50  60  70
MIO   81  67  80  63 / 100  40  60  70
F10   82  67  81  66 /  80  50  60  70
HHW   83  68  80  65 / 100  50  60  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....23





000
FXUS64 KTSA 281148
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
648 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MCS CROSSING TAF AREA THIS MORNING OK TAF SITES...AND LATE
MORNING EARLY AFTERNOON AR TAF SITES. LIKELY NON-THUNDERSTORM
VFR PERIOD FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS AFTER MCS PASSAGE...THEN
MORE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH LOWERS CIGS AND VIS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST RADAR TRENDS/HRRR SUGGEST
DEVELOPING MCS OVER WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL
THIS FAR EAST AND STORMS MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS ACTIVITY MOVES
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

TIMING OF MCS/MCV FEATURES WILL REMAIN A CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CURRENT HYDROLOGIC SITUATION/LOW
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE/HIGH PW VALUES...DO EXPECTED LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT SOME POINT IN THE WATCH AREA. AS
UPPER WAVE...CURRENTLY MOVING OVER SOUTHERN AZ...SHIFTS EAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
ENDING SATURDAY NIGHT.

KEPT LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS INTO EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP CUT
OFF LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LOW...ALLOWING REGION A MUCH NEEDED
DRYING OUT PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  68  81  65 /  80  50  60  70
FSM   83  67  82  66 /  40  30  60  50
MLC   82  67  80  67 /  70  50  60  70
BVO   80  67  81  64 /  80  50  60  70
FYV   80  64  79  63 /  40  30  60  60
BYV   80  66  80  64 /  40  30  60  60
MKO   82  66  81  65 /  60  50  60  70
MIO   81  67  80  63 /  50  40  60  70
F10   82  67  81  66 /  80  50  60  70
HHW   84  68  80  65 /  60  50  60  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...21






000
FXUS64 KTSA 281148
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
648 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MCS CROSSING TAF AREA THIS MORNING OK TAF SITES...AND LATE
MORNING EARLY AFTERNOON AR TAF SITES. LIKELY NON-THUNDERSTORM
VFR PERIOD FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS AFTER MCS PASSAGE...THEN
MORE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH LOWERS CIGS AND VIS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST RADAR TRENDS/HRRR SUGGEST
DEVELOPING MCS OVER WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL
THIS FAR EAST AND STORMS MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS ACTIVITY MOVES
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

TIMING OF MCS/MCV FEATURES WILL REMAIN A CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CURRENT HYDROLOGIC SITUATION/LOW
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE/HIGH PW VALUES...DO EXPECTED LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT SOME POINT IN THE WATCH AREA. AS
UPPER WAVE...CURRENTLY MOVING OVER SOUTHERN AZ...SHIFTS EAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
ENDING SATURDAY NIGHT.

KEPT LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS INTO EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP CUT
OFF LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LOW...ALLOWING REGION A MUCH NEEDED
DRYING OUT PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  68  81  65 /  80  50  60  70
FSM   83  67  82  66 /  40  30  60  50
MLC   82  67  80  67 /  70  50  60  70
BVO   80  67  81  64 /  80  50  60  70
FYV   80  64  79  63 /  40  30  60  60
BYV   80  66  80  64 /  40  30  60  60
MKO   82  66  81  65 /  60  50  60  70
MIO   81  67  80  63 /  50  40  60  70
F10   82  67  81  66 /  80  50  60  70
HHW   84  68  80  65 /  60  50  60  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...21






000
FXUS64 KTSA 281148
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
648 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MCS CROSSING TAF AREA THIS MORNING OK TAF SITES...AND LATE
MORNING EARLY AFTERNOON AR TAF SITES. LIKELY NON-THUNDERSTORM
VFR PERIOD FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS AFTER MCS PASSAGE...THEN
MORE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH LOWERS CIGS AND VIS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST RADAR TRENDS/HRRR SUGGEST
DEVELOPING MCS OVER WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL
THIS FAR EAST AND STORMS MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS ACTIVITY MOVES
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

TIMING OF MCS/MCV FEATURES WILL REMAIN A CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CURRENT HYDROLOGIC SITUATION/LOW
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE/HIGH PW VALUES...DO EXPECTED LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT SOME POINT IN THE WATCH AREA. AS
UPPER WAVE...CURRENTLY MOVING OVER SOUTHERN AZ...SHIFTS EAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
ENDING SATURDAY NIGHT.

KEPT LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS INTO EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP CUT
OFF LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LOW...ALLOWING REGION A MUCH NEEDED
DRYING OUT PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  68  81  65 /  80  50  60  70
FSM   83  67  82  66 /  40  30  60  50
MLC   82  67  80  67 /  70  50  60  70
BVO   80  67  81  64 /  80  50  60  70
FYV   80  64  79  63 /  40  30  60  60
BYV   80  66  80  64 /  40  30  60  60
MKO   82  66  81  65 /  60  50  60  70
MIO   81  67  80  63 /  50  40  60  70
F10   82  67  81  66 /  80  50  60  70
HHW   84  68  80  65 /  60  50  60  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...21






000
FXUS64 KTSA 281148
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
648 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MCS CROSSING TAF AREA THIS MORNING OK TAF SITES...AND LATE
MORNING EARLY AFTERNOON AR TAF SITES. LIKELY NON-THUNDERSTORM
VFR PERIOD FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS AFTER MCS PASSAGE...THEN
MORE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH LOWERS CIGS AND VIS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST RADAR TRENDS/HRRR SUGGEST
DEVELOPING MCS OVER WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL
THIS FAR EAST AND STORMS MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS ACTIVITY MOVES
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

TIMING OF MCS/MCV FEATURES WILL REMAIN A CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CURRENT HYDROLOGIC SITUATION/LOW
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE/HIGH PW VALUES...DO EXPECTED LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT SOME POINT IN THE WATCH AREA. AS
UPPER WAVE...CURRENTLY MOVING OVER SOUTHERN AZ...SHIFTS EAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
ENDING SATURDAY NIGHT.

KEPT LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS INTO EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP CUT
OFF LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LOW...ALLOWING REGION A MUCH NEEDED
DRYING OUT PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  68  81  65 /  80  50  60  70
FSM   83  67  82  66 /  40  30  60  50
MLC   82  67  80  67 /  70  50  60  70
BVO   80  67  81  64 /  80  50  60  70
FYV   80  64  79  63 /  40  30  60  60
BYV   80  66  80  64 /  40  30  60  60
MKO   82  66  81  65 /  60  50  60  70
MIO   81  67  80  63 /  50  40  60  70
F10   82  67  81  66 /  80  50  60  70
HHW   84  68  80  65 /  60  50  60  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...21






000
FXUS64 KTSA 281148
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
648 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MCS CROSSING TAF AREA THIS MORNING OK TAF SITES...AND LATE
MORNING EARLY AFTERNOON AR TAF SITES. LIKELY NON-THUNDERSTORM
VFR PERIOD FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS AFTER MCS PASSAGE...THEN
MORE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH LOWERS CIGS AND VIS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST RADAR TRENDS/HRRR SUGGEST
DEVELOPING MCS OVER WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL
THIS FAR EAST AND STORMS MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS ACTIVITY MOVES
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

TIMING OF MCS/MCV FEATURES WILL REMAIN A CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CURRENT HYDROLOGIC SITUATION/LOW
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE/HIGH PW VALUES...DO EXPECTED LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT SOME POINT IN THE WATCH AREA. AS
UPPER WAVE...CURRENTLY MOVING OVER SOUTHERN AZ...SHIFTS EAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
ENDING SATURDAY NIGHT.

KEPT LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS INTO EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP CUT
OFF LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LOW...ALLOWING REGION A MUCH NEEDED
DRYING OUT PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  68  81  65 /  80  50  60  70
FSM   83  67  82  66 /  40  30  60  50
MLC   82  67  80  67 /  70  50  60  70
BVO   80  67  81  64 /  80  50  60  70
FYV   80  64  79  63 /  40  30  60  60
BYV   80  66  80  64 /  40  30  60  60
MKO   82  66  81  65 /  60  50  60  70
MIO   81  67  80  63 /  50  40  60  70
F10   82  67  81  66 /  80  50  60  70
HHW   84  68  80  65 /  60  50  60  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...21





000
FXUS64 KTSA 281148
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
648 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MCS CROSSING TAF AREA THIS MORNING OK TAF SITES...AND LATE
MORNING EARLY AFTERNOON AR TAF SITES. LIKELY NON-THUNDERSTORM
VFR PERIOD FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS AFTER MCS PASSAGE...THEN
MORE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH LOWERS CIGS AND VIS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST RADAR TRENDS/HRRR SUGGEST
DEVELOPING MCS OVER WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL
THIS FAR EAST AND STORMS MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS ACTIVITY MOVES
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

TIMING OF MCS/MCV FEATURES WILL REMAIN A CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CURRENT HYDROLOGIC SITUATION/LOW
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE/HIGH PW VALUES...DO EXPECTED LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT SOME POINT IN THE WATCH AREA. AS
UPPER WAVE...CURRENTLY MOVING OVER SOUTHERN AZ...SHIFTS EAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
ENDING SATURDAY NIGHT.

KEPT LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS INTO EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP CUT
OFF LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LOW...ALLOWING REGION A MUCH NEEDED
DRYING OUT PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  68  81  65 /  80  50  60  70
FSM   83  67  82  66 /  40  30  60  50
MLC   82  67  80  67 /  70  50  60  70
BVO   80  67  81  64 /  80  50  60  70
FYV   80  64  79  63 /  40  30  60  60
BYV   80  66  80  64 /  40  30  60  60
MKO   82  66  81  65 /  60  50  60  70
MIO   81  67  80  63 /  50  40  60  70
F10   82  67  81  66 /  80  50  60  70
HHW   84  68  80  65 /  60  50  60  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...21





000
FXUS64 KOUN 281139
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
639 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. MOST OF THE LINE WILL
REMAIN SUBSEVERE...THOUGH A CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH AND A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO
SPINNUP OR TWO.

&&

.AVIATION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

ONGOING TSRA WILL BE EAST OF THE ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z. ADDITIONAL
TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ANYTIME ANYWHERE AFTER 15Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION
UNTIL AFTER 00Z.

OVERALL...THINK VFR CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY OCCUR. SOME PATCHES OF
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS MAY FORM BEFORE 21Z AND AGAIN AFTER 04Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS COMPLICATED BY A COUPLE OF CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS OVER OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. IT APPEARS THAT
THE MCS OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT...AFFECTING MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY MID-AFTERNOON.
THIS MCS SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...BUT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF ITS
INFLUENCE...SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ERUPT ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ONCE AGAIN SPREAD EAST OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA.

SINCE THE POSITION AND QUANTITY OF PRECIPITATION IN LATER PERIODS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS TODAY AND BEYOND...A SORT OF
AVERAGE OF THE VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE THE MOST
REASONABLE APPROACH TO FORECASTING RAINFALL AND RAIN CHANCES INTO
THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL TEND TO FOCUS THE RAINFALL FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SOMEWHAT REDUCING THE APPARENT RANDOMNESS OF
RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT...SOMEWHAT
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL SETTLE INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS SHOW A RATHER
ANEMIC MOISTURE/TEMPERATURE RETURN INTO MIDWEEK...KEEPING RAIN
CHANCES FAIRLY LOW.

THOSE SAME MODELS SHOW SOME HINT OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FOR THE
FIRST WEEKEND IN JUNE...BUT THAT IS WELL BEYOND THE RANGE OF THIS
FORECAST.

THE OPPORTUNITY FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...AND WE WILL MAINTAIN THE EXISTING FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  80  65  80  63 /  70  50  50  70
HOBART OK         80  63  80  61 /  70  50  50  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  81  65  82  64 /  60  70  50  70
GAGE OK           80  61  81  57 /  50  50  50  50
PONCA CITY OK     79  66  81  61 /  60  50  60  60
DURANT OK         85  67  80  65 /  50  60  60  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

17/23/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 281139
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
639 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. MOST OF THE LINE WILL
REMAIN SUBSEVERE...THOUGH A CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH AND A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO
SPINNUP OR TWO.

&&

.AVIATION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

ONGOING TSRA WILL BE EAST OF THE ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z. ADDITIONAL
TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ANYTIME ANYWHERE AFTER 15Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION
UNTIL AFTER 00Z.

OVERALL...THINK VFR CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY OCCUR. SOME PATCHES OF
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS MAY FORM BEFORE 21Z AND AGAIN AFTER 04Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS COMPLICATED BY A COUPLE OF CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS OVER OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. IT APPEARS THAT
THE MCS OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT...AFFECTING MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY MID-AFTERNOON.
THIS MCS SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...BUT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF ITS
INFLUENCE...SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ERUPT ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ONCE AGAIN SPREAD EAST OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA.

SINCE THE POSITION AND QUANTITY OF PRECIPITATION IN LATER PERIODS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS TODAY AND BEYOND...A SORT OF
AVERAGE OF THE VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE THE MOST
REASONABLE APPROACH TO FORECASTING RAINFALL AND RAIN CHANCES INTO
THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL TEND TO FOCUS THE RAINFALL FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SOMEWHAT REDUCING THE APPARENT RANDOMNESS OF
RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT...SOMEWHAT
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL SETTLE INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS SHOW A RATHER
ANEMIC MOISTURE/TEMPERATURE RETURN INTO MIDWEEK...KEEPING RAIN
CHANCES FAIRLY LOW.

THOSE SAME MODELS SHOW SOME HINT OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FOR THE
FIRST WEEKEND IN JUNE...BUT THAT IS WELL BEYOND THE RANGE OF THIS
FORECAST.

THE OPPORTUNITY FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...AND WE WILL MAINTAIN THE EXISTING FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  80  65  80  63 /  70  50  50  70
HOBART OK         80  63  80  61 /  70  50  50  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  81  65  82  64 /  60  70  50  70
GAGE OK           80  61  81  57 /  50  50  50  50
PONCA CITY OK     79  66  81  61 /  60  50  60  60
DURANT OK         85  67  80  65 /  50  60  60  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

17/23/17



000
FXUS64 KTSA 280811
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
311 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST RADAR TRENDS/HRRR SUGGEST
DEVELOPING MCS OVER WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL
THIS FAR EAST AND STORMS MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS ACTIVITY MOVES
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

TIMING OF MCS/MCV FEATURES WILL REMAIN A CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CURRENT HYDROLOGIC SITUATION/LOW
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE/HIGH PW VALUES...DO EXPECTED LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT SOME POINT IN THE WATCH AREA. AS
UPPER WAVE...CURRENTLY MOVING OVER SOUTHERN AZ...SHIFTS EAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
ENDING SATURDAY NIGHT.

KEPT LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS INTO EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP CUT
OFF LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LOW...ALLOWING REGION A MUCH NEEDED
DRYING OUT PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  68  81  65 /  60  50  50  70
FSM   83  67  82  66 /  40  30  50  50
MLC   82  67  80  67 /  60  50  50  70
BVO   80  67  81  64 /  60  50  50  70
FYV   80  64  79  63 /  40  30  50  60
BYV   80  66  80  64 /  40  30  50  60
MKO   82  66  81  65 /  60  50  50  70
MIO   81  67  80  63 /  50  40  50  70
F10   82  67  81  66 /  60  50  50  70
HHW   84  68  80  65 /  50  50  50  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....12




000
FXUS64 KTSA 280811
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
311 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST RADAR TRENDS/HRRR SUGGEST
DEVELOPING MCS OVER WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL
THIS FAR EAST AND STORMS MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS ACTIVITY MOVES
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

TIMING OF MCS/MCV FEATURES WILL REMAIN A CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CURRENT HYDROLOGIC SITUATION/LOW
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE/HIGH PW VALUES...DO EXPECTED LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT SOME POINT IN THE WATCH AREA. AS
UPPER WAVE...CURRENTLY MOVING OVER SOUTHERN AZ...SHIFTS EAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
ENDING SATURDAY NIGHT.

KEPT LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS INTO EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP CUT
OFF LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LOW...ALLOWING REGION A MUCH NEEDED
DRYING OUT PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  68  81  65 /  60  50  50  70
FSM   83  67  82  66 /  40  30  50  50
MLC   82  67  80  67 /  60  50  50  70
BVO   80  67  81  64 /  60  50  50  70
FYV   80  64  79  63 /  40  30  50  60
BYV   80  66  80  64 /  40  30  50  60
MKO   82  66  81  65 /  60  50  50  70
MIO   81  67  80  63 /  50  40  50  70
F10   82  67  81  66 /  60  50  50  70
HHW   84  68  80  65 /  50  50  50  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....12





000
FXUS64 KOUN 280746
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
246 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS COMPLICATED BY A COUPLE OF CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS OVER OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. IT APPEARS THAT
THE MCS OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT...AFFECTING MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY MID-AFTERNOON.
THIS MCS SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...BUT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF ITS
INFLUENCE...SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ERUPT ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ONCE AGAIN SPREAD EAST OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA.

SINCE THE POSITION AND QUANTITY OF PRECIPITATION IN LATER PERIODS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS TODAY AND BEYOND...A SORT OF
AVERAGE OF THE VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE THE MOST
REASONABLE APPROACH TO FORECASTING RAINFALL AND RAIN CHANCES INTO
THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL TEND TO FOCUS THE RAINFALL FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SOMEWHAT REDUCING THE APPARENT RANDOMNESS OF
RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT...SOMEWHAT
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL SETTLE INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS SHOW A RATHER
ANEMIC MOISTURE/TEMPERATURE RETURN INTO MIDWEEK...KEEPING RAIN
CHANCES FAIRLY LOW.

THOSE SAME MODELS SHOW SOME HINT OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FOR THE
FIRST WEEKEND IN JUNE...BUT THAT IS WELL BEYOND THE RANGE OF THIS
FORECAST.

THE OPPORTUNITY FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...AND WE WILL MAINTAIN THE EXISTING FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  80  65  80  63 /  70  50  50  70
HOBART OK         80  63  80  61 /  70  50  50  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  81  65  82  64 /  60  70  50  70
GAGE OK           80  61  81  57 /  50  50  50  50
PONCA CITY OK     79  66  81  61 /  60  50  60  60
DURANT OK         85  67  80  65 /  50  60  60  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

17/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 280746
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
246 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS COMPLICATED BY A COUPLE OF CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS OVER OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. IT APPEARS THAT
THE MCS OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT...AFFECTING MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY MID-AFTERNOON.
THIS MCS SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...BUT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF ITS
INFLUENCE...SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ERUPT ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ONCE AGAIN SPREAD EAST OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA.

SINCE THE POSITION AND QUANTITY OF PRECIPITATION IN LATER PERIODS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS TODAY AND BEYOND...A SORT OF
AVERAGE OF THE VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE THE MOST
REASONABLE APPROACH TO FORECASTING RAINFALL AND RAIN CHANCES INTO
THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL TEND TO FOCUS THE RAINFALL FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SOMEWHAT REDUCING THE APPARENT RANDOMNESS OF
RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT...SOMEWHAT
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL SETTLE INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS SHOW A RATHER
ANEMIC MOISTURE/TEMPERATURE RETURN INTO MIDWEEK...KEEPING RAIN
CHANCES FAIRLY LOW.

THOSE SAME MODELS SHOW SOME HINT OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FOR THE
FIRST WEEKEND IN JUNE...BUT THAT IS WELL BEYOND THE RANGE OF THIS
FORECAST.

THE OPPORTUNITY FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...AND WE WILL MAINTAIN THE EXISTING FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  80  65  80  63 /  70  50  50  70
HOBART OK         80  63  80  61 /  70  50  50  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  81  65  82  64 /  60  70  50  70
GAGE OK           80  61  81  57 /  50  50  50  50
PONCA CITY OK     79  66  81  61 /  60  50  60  60
DURANT OK         85  67  80  65 /  50  60  60  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

17/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 280746
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
246 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS COMPLICATED BY A COUPLE OF CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS OVER OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. IT APPEARS THAT
THE MCS OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT...AFFECTING MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY MID-AFTERNOON.
THIS MCS SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...BUT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF ITS
INFLUENCE...SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ERUPT ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ONCE AGAIN SPREAD EAST OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA.

SINCE THE POSITION AND QUANTITY OF PRECIPITATION IN LATER PERIODS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS TODAY AND BEYOND...A SORT OF
AVERAGE OF THE VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE THE MOST
REASONABLE APPROACH TO FORECASTING RAINFALL AND RAIN CHANCES INTO
THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL TEND TO FOCUS THE RAINFALL FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SOMEWHAT REDUCING THE APPARENT RANDOMNESS OF
RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT...SOMEWHAT
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL SETTLE INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS SHOW A RATHER
ANEMIC MOISTURE/TEMPERATURE RETURN INTO MIDWEEK...KEEPING RAIN
CHANCES FAIRLY LOW.

THOSE SAME MODELS SHOW SOME HINT OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FOR THE
FIRST WEEKEND IN JUNE...BUT THAT IS WELL BEYOND THE RANGE OF THIS
FORECAST.

THE OPPORTUNITY FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...AND WE WILL MAINTAIN THE EXISTING FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  80  65  80  63 /  70  50  50  70
HOBART OK         80  63  80  61 /  70  50  50  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  81  65  82  64 /  60  70  50  70
GAGE OK           80  61  81  57 /  50  50  50  50
PONCA CITY OK     79  66  81  61 /  60  50  60  60
DURANT OK         85  67  80  65 /  50  60  60  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

17/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 280746
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
246 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS COMPLICATED BY A COUPLE OF CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS OVER OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. IT APPEARS THAT
THE MCS OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT...AFFECTING MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY MID-AFTERNOON.
THIS MCS SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...BUT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF ITS
INFLUENCE...SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ERUPT ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ONCE AGAIN SPREAD EAST OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA.

SINCE THE POSITION AND QUANTITY OF PRECIPITATION IN LATER PERIODS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS TODAY AND BEYOND...A SORT OF
AVERAGE OF THE VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE THE MOST
REASONABLE APPROACH TO FORECASTING RAINFALL AND RAIN CHANCES INTO
THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL TEND TO FOCUS THE RAINFALL FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SOMEWHAT REDUCING THE APPARENT RANDOMNESS OF
RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT...SOMEWHAT
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL SETTLE INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS SHOW A RATHER
ANEMIC MOISTURE/TEMPERATURE RETURN INTO MIDWEEK...KEEPING RAIN
CHANCES FAIRLY LOW.

THOSE SAME MODELS SHOW SOME HINT OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FOR THE
FIRST WEEKEND IN JUNE...BUT THAT IS WELL BEYOND THE RANGE OF THIS
FORECAST.

THE OPPORTUNITY FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...AND WE WILL MAINTAIN THE EXISTING FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  80  65  80  63 /  70  50  50  70
HOBART OK         80  63  80  61 /  70  50  50  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  81  65  82  64 /  60  70  50  70
GAGE OK           80  61  81  57 /  50  50  50  50
PONCA CITY OK     79  66  81  61 /  60  50  60  60
DURANT OK         85  67  80  65 /  50  60  60  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

17/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 280746
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
246 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS COMPLICATED BY A COUPLE OF CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS OVER OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. IT APPEARS THAT
THE MCS OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT...AFFECTING MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY MID-AFTERNOON.
THIS MCS SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...BUT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF ITS
INFLUENCE...SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ERUPT ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ONCE AGAIN SPREAD EAST OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA.

SINCE THE POSITION AND QUANTITY OF PRECIPITATION IN LATER PERIODS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS TODAY AND BEYOND...A SORT OF
AVERAGE OF THE VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE THE MOST
REASONABLE APPROACH TO FORECASTING RAINFALL AND RAIN CHANCES INTO
THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL TEND TO FOCUS THE RAINFALL FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SOMEWHAT REDUCING THE APPARENT RANDOMNESS OF
RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT...SOMEWHAT
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL SETTLE INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS SHOW A RATHER
ANEMIC MOISTURE/TEMPERATURE RETURN INTO MIDWEEK...KEEPING RAIN
CHANCES FAIRLY LOW.

THOSE SAME MODELS SHOW SOME HINT OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FOR THE
FIRST WEEKEND IN JUNE...BUT THAT IS WELL BEYOND THE RANGE OF THIS
FORECAST.

THE OPPORTUNITY FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...AND WE WILL MAINTAIN THE EXISTING FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  80  65  80  63 /  70  50  50  70
HOBART OK         80  63  80  61 /  70  50  50  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  81  65  82  64 /  60  70  50  70
GAGE OK           80  61  81  57 /  50  50  50  50
PONCA CITY OK     79  66  81  61 /  60  50  60  60
DURANT OK         85  67  80  65 /  50  60  60  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

17/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 280746
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
246 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS COMPLICATED BY A COUPLE OF CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS OVER OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. IT APPEARS THAT
THE MCS OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT...AFFECTING MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY MID-AFTERNOON.
THIS MCS SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...BUT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF ITS
INFLUENCE...SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ERUPT ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ONCE AGAIN SPREAD EAST OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA.

SINCE THE POSITION AND QUANTITY OF PRECIPITATION IN LATER PERIODS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS TODAY AND BEYOND...A SORT OF
AVERAGE OF THE VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE THE MOST
REASONABLE APPROACH TO FORECASTING RAINFALL AND RAIN CHANCES INTO
THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL TEND TO FOCUS THE RAINFALL FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SOMEWHAT REDUCING THE APPARENT RANDOMNESS OF
RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT...SOMEWHAT
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL SETTLE INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS SHOW A RATHER
ANEMIC MOISTURE/TEMPERATURE RETURN INTO MIDWEEK...KEEPING RAIN
CHANCES FAIRLY LOW.

THOSE SAME MODELS SHOW SOME HINT OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FOR THE
FIRST WEEKEND IN JUNE...BUT THAT IS WELL BEYOND THE RANGE OF THIS
FORECAST.

THE OPPORTUNITY FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...AND WE WILL MAINTAIN THE EXISTING FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  80  65  80  63 /  70  50  50  70
HOBART OK         80  63  80  61 /  70  50  50  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  81  65  82  64 /  60  70  50  70
GAGE OK           80  61  81  57 /  50  50  50  50
PONCA CITY OK     79  66  81  61 /  60  50  60  60
DURANT OK         85  67  80  65 /  50  60  60  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

17/23



000
FXUS64 KTSA 280453
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1153 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
WITH MID AND HIGH OVERCAST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
THURSDAY DURING THE DAY... LASTING THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY LOW PROBABILITY OF A STORM
AFFECTING ANY PARTICULAR SITE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAVE EITHER DISSIPATED OR
MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS A MAINLY DRY
NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING DURING THE MORNING THURSDAY.
WILL LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY IN SOME PLACES OVERNIGHT AND MAKE A FEW
OTHER MINOR FIRST PERIOD CHANGES.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 280453
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1153 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
WITH MID AND HIGH OVERCAST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
THURSDAY DURING THE DAY... LASTING THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY LOW PROBABILITY OF A STORM
AFFECTING ANY PARTICULAR SITE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAVE EITHER DISSIPATED OR
MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS A MAINLY DRY
NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING DURING THE MORNING THURSDAY.
WILL LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY IN SOME PLACES OVERNIGHT AND MAKE A FEW
OTHER MINOR FIRST PERIOD CHANGES.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 280453
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1153 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
WITH MID AND HIGH OVERCAST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
THURSDAY DURING THE DAY... LASTING THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY LOW PROBABILITY OF A STORM
AFFECTING ANY PARTICULAR SITE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAVE EITHER DISSIPATED OR
MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS A MAINLY DRY
NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING DURING THE MORNING THURSDAY.
WILL LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY IN SOME PLACES OVERNIGHT AND MAKE A FEW
OTHER MINOR FIRST PERIOD CHANGES.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KOUN 280424 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1124 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...28/06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
-TSRA MAY IMPACT SWRN AND FAR WRN N TX THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AS ON GOING CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS
EVENING. SAME GOES FOR NWRN OK... WHERE AN AREA OF -SHRA/-TSRA
MAY IMPACT KGAG/KWWR THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO VARY FROM RUN TO RUN WITH
HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE OVERNIGHT. WITH A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING... EXPECT SLOW STORM MOTIONS/EVOLUTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNRISE... BEFORE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE FINALLY LIFTS N/NE
THROUGH 28/12Z... WITH A POSSIBLE LINE OF TSRA DEVELOPING AND
MOVING INTO CENTRAL OK THROUGH SUNRISE. FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE
TAF PERIOD... UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE SCATTERED SHRA AND
TSRA WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTN ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
REMAIN PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTH... WITH EXCEPTION TO SITES
IMPACTED BY SHRA OR TSRA.

JTK

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL REMAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL...AND SEVERE STORM CHANCES.

AN AREA OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PERSISTED NOW FOR
SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL AT TIMES. THIS HAS LEAD TO SOME FLOODING
CONCERNS OVER GARVIN AND PONTOTOC COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

FROM NOW THROUGH TONIGHT...WATER VAPOR DEPICTS A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE CLOSING IN ON THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND SW KS. THIS
HAS RECENTLY LED TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR
A DRYLINE/BOUNDARY INTERSECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TX PANHANDLE.
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA AS SURFACE
HEATING CONTINUES TO ERODE THE WEAK CAPPING INVERSION. STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
CONCERN. AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD AND THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE
CONDUCIVE TO STORM ROTATION...A TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL ALSO PROMOTE A THREAT OF
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. WHILE MANY HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW
THESE STORMS DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AN INTENSIFYING
LOW LEVEL JET WOULD POINT TO STORM MAINTENANCE WELL AFTER
DARK...AND EXPECT AN EASTWARD MOVING COMPLEX/CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY
DEVELOP TONIGHT...GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE FLOOD
THREAT MAY INCREASE MARKEDLY IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT...AS
TRAINING STORM CORES DUMP HEAVY RAINS OVER THE SAME AREAS.

STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING. A MORE
PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR AND HIGH INSTABILITY...EXPECT A
SEVERE THREAT ONCE AGAIN. STORMS MAY MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE
EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING STORM COMPLEX...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
AGAIN...STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A SLOW
MOVING FRONT APPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...AND MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE WIND SHEAR...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL PERSIST...ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING. WITH THIS...OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FROM TONIGHT ON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE SOMEWHAT SPOTTY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH A MORE
PRONOUNCED/WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL IN ALL...WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH
AMOUNTS MAY LOCALLY EXCEED 5 TO 6 INCHES. THIS CERTAINLY WONT HELP
THE EXISTING RIVER FLOODING CONDITIONS...AND WILL LIKELY PROMOTE
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING.

ONCE THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER...SOMETIME
SUNDAY...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN...BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES
AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. MID LEVEL RIDGING MAY ATTEMPT TO BUILD INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG RANGE MODELS
PROVIDE LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON THE LONGER TERM WEATHER PICTURE.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  81  66  80 /  40  50  60  50
HOBART OK         65  82  65  79 /  50  50  60  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  84  67  82 /  40  40  60  50
GAGE OK           63  82  62  80 /  60  50  50  50
PONCA CITY OK     66  80  69  80 /  50  50  50  60
DURANT OK         67  83  69  81 /  30  40  60  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 280424 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1124 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...28/06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
-TSRA MAY IMPACT SWRN AND FAR WRN N TX THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AS ON GOING CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS
EVENING. SAME GOES FOR NWRN OK... WHERE AN AREA OF -SHRA/-TSRA
MAY IMPACT KGAG/KWWR THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO VARY FROM RUN TO RUN WITH
HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE OVERNIGHT. WITH A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING... EXPECT SLOW STORM MOTIONS/EVOLUTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNRISE... BEFORE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE FINALLY LIFTS N/NE
THROUGH 28/12Z... WITH A POSSIBLE LINE OF TSRA DEVELOPING AND
MOVING INTO CENTRAL OK THROUGH SUNRISE. FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE
TAF PERIOD... UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE SCATTERED SHRA AND
TSRA WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTN ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
REMAIN PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTH... WITH EXCEPTION TO SITES
IMPACTED BY SHRA OR TSRA.

JTK

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL REMAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL...AND SEVERE STORM CHANCES.

AN AREA OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PERSISTED NOW FOR
SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL AT TIMES. THIS HAS LEAD TO SOME FLOODING
CONCERNS OVER GARVIN AND PONTOTOC COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

FROM NOW THROUGH TONIGHT...WATER VAPOR DEPICTS A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE CLOSING IN ON THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND SW KS. THIS
HAS RECENTLY LED TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR
A DRYLINE/BOUNDARY INTERSECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TX PANHANDLE.
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA AS SURFACE
HEATING CONTINUES TO ERODE THE WEAK CAPPING INVERSION. STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
CONCERN. AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD AND THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE
CONDUCIVE TO STORM ROTATION...A TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL ALSO PROMOTE A THREAT OF
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. WHILE MANY HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW
THESE STORMS DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AN INTENSIFYING
LOW LEVEL JET WOULD POINT TO STORM MAINTENANCE WELL AFTER
DARK...AND EXPECT AN EASTWARD MOVING COMPLEX/CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY
DEVELOP TONIGHT...GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE FLOOD
THREAT MAY INCREASE MARKEDLY IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT...AS
TRAINING STORM CORES DUMP HEAVY RAINS OVER THE SAME AREAS.

STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING. A MORE
PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR AND HIGH INSTABILITY...EXPECT A
SEVERE THREAT ONCE AGAIN. STORMS MAY MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE
EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING STORM COMPLEX...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
AGAIN...STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A SLOW
MOVING FRONT APPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...AND MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE WIND SHEAR...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL PERSIST...ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING. WITH THIS...OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FROM TONIGHT ON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE SOMEWHAT SPOTTY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH A MORE
PRONOUNCED/WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL IN ALL...WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH
AMOUNTS MAY LOCALLY EXCEED 5 TO 6 INCHES. THIS CERTAINLY WONT HELP
THE EXISTING RIVER FLOODING CONDITIONS...AND WILL LIKELY PROMOTE
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING.

ONCE THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER...SOMETIME
SUNDAY...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN...BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES
AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. MID LEVEL RIDGING MAY ATTEMPT TO BUILD INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG RANGE MODELS
PROVIDE LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON THE LONGER TERM WEATHER PICTURE.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  81  66  80 /  40  50  60  50
HOBART OK         65  82  65  79 /  50  50  60  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  84  67  82 /  40  40  60  50
GAGE OK           63  82  62  80 /  60  50  50  50
PONCA CITY OK     66  80  69  80 /  50  50  50  60
DURANT OK         67  83  69  81 /  30  40  60  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 280424 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1124 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...28/06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
-TSRA MAY IMPACT SWRN AND FAR WRN N TX THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AS ON GOING CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS
EVENING. SAME GOES FOR NWRN OK... WHERE AN AREA OF -SHRA/-TSRA
MAY IMPACT KGAG/KWWR THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO VARY FROM RUN TO RUN WITH
HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE OVERNIGHT. WITH A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING... EXPECT SLOW STORM MOTIONS/EVOLUTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNRISE... BEFORE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE FINALLY LIFTS N/NE
THROUGH 28/12Z... WITH A POSSIBLE LINE OF TSRA DEVELOPING AND
MOVING INTO CENTRAL OK THROUGH SUNRISE. FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE
TAF PERIOD... UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE SCATTERED SHRA AND
TSRA WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTN ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
REMAIN PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTH... WITH EXCEPTION TO SITES
IMPACTED BY SHRA OR TSRA.

JTK

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL REMAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL...AND SEVERE STORM CHANCES.

AN AREA OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PERSISTED NOW FOR
SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL AT TIMES. THIS HAS LEAD TO SOME FLOODING
CONCERNS OVER GARVIN AND PONTOTOC COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

FROM NOW THROUGH TONIGHT...WATER VAPOR DEPICTS A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE CLOSING IN ON THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND SW KS. THIS
HAS RECENTLY LED TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR
A DRYLINE/BOUNDARY INTERSECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TX PANHANDLE.
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA AS SURFACE
HEATING CONTINUES TO ERODE THE WEAK CAPPING INVERSION. STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
CONCERN. AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD AND THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE
CONDUCIVE TO STORM ROTATION...A TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL ALSO PROMOTE A THREAT OF
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. WHILE MANY HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW
THESE STORMS DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AN INTENSIFYING
LOW LEVEL JET WOULD POINT TO STORM MAINTENANCE WELL AFTER
DARK...AND EXPECT AN EASTWARD MOVING COMPLEX/CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY
DEVELOP TONIGHT...GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE FLOOD
THREAT MAY INCREASE MARKEDLY IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT...AS
TRAINING STORM CORES DUMP HEAVY RAINS OVER THE SAME AREAS.

STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING. A MORE
PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR AND HIGH INSTABILITY...EXPECT A
SEVERE THREAT ONCE AGAIN. STORMS MAY MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE
EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING STORM COMPLEX...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
AGAIN...STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A SLOW
MOVING FRONT APPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...AND MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE WIND SHEAR...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL PERSIST...ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING. WITH THIS...OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FROM TONIGHT ON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE SOMEWHAT SPOTTY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH A MORE
PRONOUNCED/WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL IN ALL...WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH
AMOUNTS MAY LOCALLY EXCEED 5 TO 6 INCHES. THIS CERTAINLY WONT HELP
THE EXISTING RIVER FLOODING CONDITIONS...AND WILL LIKELY PROMOTE
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING.

ONCE THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER...SOMETIME
SUNDAY...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN...BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES
AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. MID LEVEL RIDGING MAY ATTEMPT TO BUILD INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG RANGE MODELS
PROVIDE LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON THE LONGER TERM WEATHER PICTURE.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  81  66  80 /  40  50  60  50
HOBART OK         65  82  65  79 /  50  50  60  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  84  67  82 /  40  40  60  50
GAGE OK           63  82  62  80 /  60  50  50  50
PONCA CITY OK     66  80  69  80 /  50  50  50  60
DURANT OK         67  83  69  81 /  30  40  60  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 280424 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1124 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...28/06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
-TSRA MAY IMPACT SWRN AND FAR WRN N TX THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AS ON GOING CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS
EVENING. SAME GOES FOR NWRN OK... WHERE AN AREA OF -SHRA/-TSRA
MAY IMPACT KGAG/KWWR THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO VARY FROM RUN TO RUN WITH
HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE OVERNIGHT. WITH A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING... EXPECT SLOW STORM MOTIONS/EVOLUTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNRISE... BEFORE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE FINALLY LIFTS N/NE
THROUGH 28/12Z... WITH A POSSIBLE LINE OF TSRA DEVELOPING AND
MOVING INTO CENTRAL OK THROUGH SUNRISE. FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE
TAF PERIOD... UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE SCATTERED SHRA AND
TSRA WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTN ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
REMAIN PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTH... WITH EXCEPTION TO SITES
IMPACTED BY SHRA OR TSRA.

JTK

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL REMAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL...AND SEVERE STORM CHANCES.

AN AREA OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PERSISTED NOW FOR
SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL AT TIMES. THIS HAS LEAD TO SOME FLOODING
CONCERNS OVER GARVIN AND PONTOTOC COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

FROM NOW THROUGH TONIGHT...WATER VAPOR DEPICTS A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE CLOSING IN ON THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND SW KS. THIS
HAS RECENTLY LED TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR
A DRYLINE/BOUNDARY INTERSECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TX PANHANDLE.
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA AS SURFACE
HEATING CONTINUES TO ERODE THE WEAK CAPPING INVERSION. STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
CONCERN. AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD AND THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE
CONDUCIVE TO STORM ROTATION...A TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL ALSO PROMOTE A THREAT OF
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. WHILE MANY HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW
THESE STORMS DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AN INTENSIFYING
LOW LEVEL JET WOULD POINT TO STORM MAINTENANCE WELL AFTER
DARK...AND EXPECT AN EASTWARD MOVING COMPLEX/CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY
DEVELOP TONIGHT...GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE FLOOD
THREAT MAY INCREASE MARKEDLY IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT...AS
TRAINING STORM CORES DUMP HEAVY RAINS OVER THE SAME AREAS.

STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING. A MORE
PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR AND HIGH INSTABILITY...EXPECT A
SEVERE THREAT ONCE AGAIN. STORMS MAY MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE
EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING STORM COMPLEX...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
AGAIN...STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A SLOW
MOVING FRONT APPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...AND MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE WIND SHEAR...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL PERSIST...ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING. WITH THIS...OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FROM TONIGHT ON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE SOMEWHAT SPOTTY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH A MORE
PRONOUNCED/WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL IN ALL...WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH
AMOUNTS MAY LOCALLY EXCEED 5 TO 6 INCHES. THIS CERTAINLY WONT HELP
THE EXISTING RIVER FLOODING CONDITIONS...AND WILL LIKELY PROMOTE
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING.

ONCE THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER...SOMETIME
SUNDAY...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN...BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES
AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. MID LEVEL RIDGING MAY ATTEMPT TO BUILD INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG RANGE MODELS
PROVIDE LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON THE LONGER TERM WEATHER PICTURE.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  81  66  80 /  40  50  60  50
HOBART OK         65  82  65  79 /  50  50  60  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  84  67  82 /  40  40  60  50
GAGE OK           63  82  62  80 /  60  50  50  50
PONCA CITY OK     66  80  69  80 /  50  50  50  60
DURANT OK         67  83  69  81 /  30  40  60  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 280237
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
937 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAVE EITHER DISSIPATED OR
MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS A MAINLY DRY
NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING DURING THE MORNING THURSDAY.
WILL LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY IN SOME PLACES OVERNIGHT AND MAKE A FEW
OTHER MINOR FIRST PERIOD CHANGES.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....05

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KTSA 280237
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
937 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAVE EITHER DISSIPATED OR
MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS A MAINLY DRY
NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING DURING THE MORNING THURSDAY.
WILL LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY IN SOME PLACES OVERNIGHT AND MAKE A FEW
OTHER MINOR FIRST PERIOD CHANGES.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....05

PLATE






000
FXUS64 KTSA 280237
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
937 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAVE EITHER DISSIPATED OR
MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS A MAINLY DRY
NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING DURING THE MORNING THURSDAY.
WILL LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY IN SOME PLACES OVERNIGHT AND MAKE A FEW
OTHER MINOR FIRST PERIOD CHANGES.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....05

PLATE






000
FXUS64 KTSA 280237
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
937 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAVE EITHER DISSIPATED OR
MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS A MAINLY DRY
NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING DURING THE MORNING THURSDAY.
WILL LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY IN SOME PLACES OVERNIGHT AND MAKE A FEW
OTHER MINOR FIRST PERIOD CHANGES.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....05

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KTSA 272302
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
602 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
WITH MID AND HIGH OVERCAST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO DEVELOP THURSDAY DURING THE DAY... WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF
AFFECTING ANY PARTICULAR SITE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME EXPANDING TO THE
EAST INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LARGELY DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SIGNS ON AREA RADAR DATA IN THE PAST HALF
HOUR OR SO OF SOME ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT JUST SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND AN AREA
OF MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS COULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING IN MAINLY NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS
EVENING FROM THE WEST. THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND
THE PANHANDLES REGION ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. SUCCESSIVE DISTURBANCES INTO FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING GIVEN ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.

MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONGER DISTURBANCE AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WOULD BRING A
GREATER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
REQUIRED IN THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.

AFTER THIS WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES FOR AT LEAST A SHORT TIME...LEADING TO
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND A DECREASE IN THE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 272302
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
602 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
WITH MID AND HIGH OVERCAST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO DEVELOP THURSDAY DURING THE DAY... WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF
AFFECTING ANY PARTICULAR SITE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME EXPANDING TO THE
EAST INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LARGELY DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SIGNS ON AREA RADAR DATA IN THE PAST HALF
HOUR OR SO OF SOME ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT JUST SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND AN AREA
OF MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS COULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING IN MAINLY NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS
EVENING FROM THE WEST. THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND
THE PANHANDLES REGION ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. SUCCESSIVE DISTURBANCES INTO FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING GIVEN ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.

MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONGER DISTURBANCE AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WOULD BRING A
GREATER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
REQUIRED IN THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.

AFTER THIS WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES FOR AT LEAST A SHORT TIME...LEADING TO
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND A DECREASE IN THE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 272302
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
602 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
WITH MID AND HIGH OVERCAST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO DEVELOP THURSDAY DURING THE DAY... WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF
AFFECTING ANY PARTICULAR SITE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME EXPANDING TO THE
EAST INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LARGELY DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SIGNS ON AREA RADAR DATA IN THE PAST HALF
HOUR OR SO OF SOME ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT JUST SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND AN AREA
OF MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS COULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING IN MAINLY NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS
EVENING FROM THE WEST. THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND
THE PANHANDLES REGION ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. SUCCESSIVE DISTURBANCES INTO FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING GIVEN ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.

MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONGER DISTURBANCE AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WOULD BRING A
GREATER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
REQUIRED IN THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.

AFTER THIS WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES FOR AT LEAST A SHORT TIME...LEADING TO
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND A DECREASE IN THE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 272302
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
602 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
WITH MID AND HIGH OVERCAST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO DEVELOP THURSDAY DURING THE DAY... WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF
AFFECTING ANY PARTICULAR SITE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME EXPANDING TO THE
EAST INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LARGELY DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SIGNS ON AREA RADAR DATA IN THE PAST HALF
HOUR OR SO OF SOME ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT JUST SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND AN AREA
OF MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS COULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING IN MAINLY NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS
EVENING FROM THE WEST. THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND
THE PANHANDLES REGION ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. SUCCESSIVE DISTURBANCES INTO FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING GIVEN ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.

MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONGER DISTURBANCE AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WOULD BRING A
GREATER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
REQUIRED IN THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.

AFTER THIS WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES FOR AT LEAST A SHORT TIME...LEADING TO
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND A DECREASE IN THE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 272302
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
602 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
WITH MID AND HIGH OVERCAST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO DEVELOP THURSDAY DURING THE DAY... WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF
AFFECTING ANY PARTICULAR SITE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME EXPANDING TO THE
EAST INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LARGELY DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SIGNS ON AREA RADAR DATA IN THE PAST HALF
HOUR OR SO OF SOME ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT JUST SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND AN AREA
OF MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS COULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING IN MAINLY NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS
EVENING FROM THE WEST. THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND
THE PANHANDLES REGION ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. SUCCESSIVE DISTURBANCES INTO FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING GIVEN ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.

MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONGER DISTURBANCE AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WOULD BRING A
GREATER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
REQUIRED IN THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.

AFTER THIS WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES FOR AT LEAST A SHORT TIME...LEADING TO
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND A DECREASE IN THE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KOUN 272257 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
557 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...28/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
ACTIVE AVIATION WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. TSRA WILL
CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE THROUGH THE EVENING...
WITH ACTIVITY MOVING INTO W/NW OK THROUGH 00 TO 06Z. LOCATION AND
TIMING OF EARLY STORMS REMAINS A CHALLENGE... BUT CURRENT THOUGHTS
ARE... STORMS WILL MERGE INTO A COMPLEX AFTER SUNSET MOVING ACROSS
N AND CENTRAL OK THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AGAIN... TIMING
REMAINS A CHALLENGE... BUT THOUGHTS ARE SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT
CENTRAL OK... KOKC/KOUN... AFTER MIDNIGHT... CONTINUING THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ACROSS TEXOMA... STORMS CONTINUE JUST
EAST OF KSPS... WITH SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DEVELOPING. AT
PRESENT TIME... EXPECT THESE INITIAL STORMS TO STAY EAST OF
KLAW... BUT WILL KEEP TEMPO RUNNING FOR FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
PERIOD... WITH THE SAME FOR KSPS. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN
TOMORROW FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD... BUT COVERAGE AND
TIMING REMAIN A CHALLENGE. PROB30S AND/OR HOLDING ANY MENTION
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS LOWEST WILL SUFFICE UNTIL 28/06Z ISSUANCE.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL REMAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL...AND SEVERE STORM CHANCES.

AN AREA OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PERSISTED NOW FOR
SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL AT TIMES. THIS HAS LEAD TO SOME FLOODING
CONCERNS OVER GARVIN AND PONTOTOC COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

FROM NOW THROUGH TONIGHT...WATER VAPOR DEPICTS A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE CLOSING IN ON THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND SW KS. THIS
HAS RECENTLY LED TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR
A DRYLINE/BOUNDARY INTERSECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TX PANHANDLE.
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA AS SURFACE
HEATING CONTINUES TO ERODE THE WEAK CAPPING INVERSION. STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
CONCERN. AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD AND THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE
CONDUCIVE TO STORM ROTATION...A TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL ALSO PROMOTE A THREAT OF
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. WHILE MANY HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW
THESE STORMS DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AN INTENSIFYING
LOW LEVEL JET WOULD POINT TO STORM MAINTENANCE WELL AFTER
DARK...AND EXPECT AN EASTWARD MOVING COMPLEX/CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY
DEVELOP TONIGHT...GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE FLOOD
THREAT MAY INCREASE MARKEDLY IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT...AS
TRAINING STORM CORES DUMP HEAVY RAINS OVER THE SAME AREAS.

STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING. A MORE
PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR AND HIGH INSTABILITY...EXPECT A
SEVERE THREAT ONCE AGAIN. STORMS MAY MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE
EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING STORM COMPLEX...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
AGAIN...STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A SLOW
MOVING FRONT APPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...AND MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE WIND SHEAR...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL PERSIST...ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING. WITH THIS...OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FROM TONIGHT ON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE SOMEWHAT SPOTTY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH A MORE
PRONOUNCED/WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL IN ALL...WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH
AMOUNTS MAY LOCALLY EXCEED 5 TO 6 INCHES. THIS CERTAINLY WONT HELP
THE EXISTING RIVER FLOODING CONDITIONS...AND WILL LIKELY PROMOTE
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING.

ONCE THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER...SOMETIME
SUNDAY...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN...BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES
AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. MID LEVEL RIDGING MAY ATTEMPT TO BUILD INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG RANGE MODELS
PROVIDE LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON THE LONGER TERM WEATHER PICTURE.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  81  66  80 /  40  50  60  50
HOBART OK         65  82  65  79 /  50  50  60  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  84  67  82 /  40  40  60  50
GAGE OK           63  82  62  80 /  50  50  50  50
PONCA CITY OK     66  80  69  80 /  50  50  50  60
DURANT OK         67  83  69  81 /  30  40  60  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

99/99/01




000
FXUS64 KOUN 272257 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
557 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...28/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
ACTIVE AVIATION WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. TSRA WILL
CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE THROUGH THE EVENING...
WITH ACTIVITY MOVING INTO W/NW OK THROUGH 00 TO 06Z. LOCATION AND
TIMING OF EARLY STORMS REMAINS A CHALLENGE... BUT CURRENT THOUGHTS
ARE... STORMS WILL MERGE INTO A COMPLEX AFTER SUNSET MOVING ACROSS
N AND CENTRAL OK THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AGAIN... TIMING
REMAINS A CHALLENGE... BUT THOUGHTS ARE SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT
CENTRAL OK... KOKC/KOUN... AFTER MIDNIGHT... CONTINUING THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ACROSS TEXOMA... STORMS CONTINUE JUST
EAST OF KSPS... WITH SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DEVELOPING. AT
PRESENT TIME... EXPECT THESE INITIAL STORMS TO STAY EAST OF
KLAW... BUT WILL KEEP TEMPO RUNNING FOR FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
PERIOD... WITH THE SAME FOR KSPS. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN
TOMORROW FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD... BUT COVERAGE AND
TIMING REMAIN A CHALLENGE. PROB30S AND/OR HOLDING ANY MENTION
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS LOWEST WILL SUFFICE UNTIL 28/06Z ISSUANCE.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL REMAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL...AND SEVERE STORM CHANCES.

AN AREA OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PERSISTED NOW FOR
SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL AT TIMES. THIS HAS LEAD TO SOME FLOODING
CONCERNS OVER GARVIN AND PONTOTOC COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

FROM NOW THROUGH TONIGHT...WATER VAPOR DEPICTS A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE CLOSING IN ON THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND SW KS. THIS
HAS RECENTLY LED TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR
A DRYLINE/BOUNDARY INTERSECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TX PANHANDLE.
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA AS SURFACE
HEATING CONTINUES TO ERODE THE WEAK CAPPING INVERSION. STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
CONCERN. AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD AND THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE
CONDUCIVE TO STORM ROTATION...A TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL ALSO PROMOTE A THREAT OF
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. WHILE MANY HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW
THESE STORMS DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AN INTENSIFYING
LOW LEVEL JET WOULD POINT TO STORM MAINTENANCE WELL AFTER
DARK...AND EXPECT AN EASTWARD MOVING COMPLEX/CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY
DEVELOP TONIGHT...GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE FLOOD
THREAT MAY INCREASE MARKEDLY IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT...AS
TRAINING STORM CORES DUMP HEAVY RAINS OVER THE SAME AREAS.

STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING. A MORE
PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR AND HIGH INSTABILITY...EXPECT A
SEVERE THREAT ONCE AGAIN. STORMS MAY MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE
EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING STORM COMPLEX...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
AGAIN...STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A SLOW
MOVING FRONT APPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...AND MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE WIND SHEAR...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL PERSIST...ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING. WITH THIS...OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FROM TONIGHT ON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE SOMEWHAT SPOTTY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH A MORE
PRONOUNCED/WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL IN ALL...WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH
AMOUNTS MAY LOCALLY EXCEED 5 TO 6 INCHES. THIS CERTAINLY WONT HELP
THE EXISTING RIVER FLOODING CONDITIONS...AND WILL LIKELY PROMOTE
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING.

ONCE THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER...SOMETIME
SUNDAY...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN...BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES
AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. MID LEVEL RIDGING MAY ATTEMPT TO BUILD INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG RANGE MODELS
PROVIDE LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON THE LONGER TERM WEATHER PICTURE.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  81  66  80 /  40  50  60  50
HOBART OK         65  82  65  79 /  50  50  60  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  84  67  82 /  40  40  60  50
GAGE OK           63  82  62  80 /  50  50  50  50
PONCA CITY OK     66  80  69  80 /  50  50  50  60
DURANT OK         67  83  69  81 /  30  40  60  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

99/99/01



000
FXUS64 KOUN 272257 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
557 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...28/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
ACTIVE AVIATION WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. TSRA WILL
CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE THROUGH THE EVENING...
WITH ACTIVITY MOVING INTO W/NW OK THROUGH 00 TO 06Z. LOCATION AND
TIMING OF EARLY STORMS REMAINS A CHALLENGE... BUT CURRENT THOUGHTS
ARE... STORMS WILL MERGE INTO A COMPLEX AFTER SUNSET MOVING ACROSS
N AND CENTRAL OK THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AGAIN... TIMING
REMAINS A CHALLENGE... BUT THOUGHTS ARE SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT
CENTRAL OK... KOKC/KOUN... AFTER MIDNIGHT... CONTINUING THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ACROSS TEXOMA... STORMS CONTINUE JUST
EAST OF KSPS... WITH SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DEVELOPING. AT
PRESENT TIME... EXPECT THESE INITIAL STORMS TO STAY EAST OF
KLAW... BUT WILL KEEP TEMPO RUNNING FOR FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
PERIOD... WITH THE SAME FOR KSPS. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN
TOMORROW FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD... BUT COVERAGE AND
TIMING REMAIN A CHALLENGE. PROB30S AND/OR HOLDING ANY MENTION
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS LOWEST WILL SUFFICE UNTIL 28/06Z ISSUANCE.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL REMAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL...AND SEVERE STORM CHANCES.

AN AREA OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PERSISTED NOW FOR
SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL AT TIMES. THIS HAS LEAD TO SOME FLOODING
CONCERNS OVER GARVIN AND PONTOTOC COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

FROM NOW THROUGH TONIGHT...WATER VAPOR DEPICTS A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE CLOSING IN ON THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND SW KS. THIS
HAS RECENTLY LED TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR
A DRYLINE/BOUNDARY INTERSECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TX PANHANDLE.
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA AS SURFACE
HEATING CONTINUES TO ERODE THE WEAK CAPPING INVERSION. STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
CONCERN. AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD AND THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE
CONDUCIVE TO STORM ROTATION...A TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL ALSO PROMOTE A THREAT OF
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. WHILE MANY HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW
THESE STORMS DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AN INTENSIFYING
LOW LEVEL JET WOULD POINT TO STORM MAINTENANCE WELL AFTER
DARK...AND EXPECT AN EASTWARD MOVING COMPLEX/CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY
DEVELOP TONIGHT...GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE FLOOD
THREAT MAY INCREASE MARKEDLY IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT...AS
TRAINING STORM CORES DUMP HEAVY RAINS OVER THE SAME AREAS.

STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING. A MORE
PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR AND HIGH INSTABILITY...EXPECT A
SEVERE THREAT ONCE AGAIN. STORMS MAY MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE
EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING STORM COMPLEX...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
AGAIN...STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A SLOW
MOVING FRONT APPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...AND MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE WIND SHEAR...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL PERSIST...ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING. WITH THIS...OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FROM TONIGHT ON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE SOMEWHAT SPOTTY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH A MORE
PRONOUNCED/WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL IN ALL...WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH
AMOUNTS MAY LOCALLY EXCEED 5 TO 6 INCHES. THIS CERTAINLY WONT HELP
THE EXISTING RIVER FLOODING CONDITIONS...AND WILL LIKELY PROMOTE
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING.

ONCE THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER...SOMETIME
SUNDAY...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN...BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES
AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. MID LEVEL RIDGING MAY ATTEMPT TO BUILD INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG RANGE MODELS
PROVIDE LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON THE LONGER TERM WEATHER PICTURE.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  81  66  80 /  40  50  60  50
HOBART OK         65  82  65  79 /  50  50  60  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  84  67  82 /  40  40  60  50
GAGE OK           63  82  62  80 /  50  50  50  50
PONCA CITY OK     66  80  69  80 /  50  50  50  60
DURANT OK         67  83  69  81 /  30  40  60  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

99/99/01




000
FXUS64 KOUN 272013
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
313 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL REMAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL...AND SEVERE STORM CHANCES.

AN AREA OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PERSISTED NOW FOR
SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL AT TIMES. THIS HAS LEAD TO SOME FLOODING
CONCERNS OVER GARVIN AND PONTOTOC COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

FROM NOW THROUGH TONIGHT...WATER VAPOR DEPICTS A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE CLOSING IN ON THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND SW KS. THIS
HAS RECENTLY LED TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR
A DRYLINE/BOUNDARY INTERSECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TX PANHANDLE.
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA AS SURFACE
HEATING CONTINUES TO ERODE THE WEAK CAPPING INVERSION. STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
CONCERN. AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD AND THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE
CONDUCIVE TO STORM ROTATION...A TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL ALSO PROMOTE A THREAT OF
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. WHILE MANY HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW
THESE STORMS DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AN INTENSIFYING
LOW LEVEL JET WOULD POINT TO STORM MAINTENANCE WELL AFTER
DARK...AND EXPECT AN EASTWARD MOVING COMPLEX/CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY
DEVELOP TONIGHT...GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE FLOOD
THREAT MAY INCREASE MARKEDLY IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT...AS
TRAINING STORM CORES DUMP HEAVY RAINS OVER THE SAME AREAS.

STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING. A MORE
PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR AND HIGH INSTABILITY...EXPECT A
SEVERE THREAT ONCE AGAIN. STORMS MAY MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE
EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING STORM COMPLEX...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
AGAIN...STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A SLOW
MOVING FRONT APPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...AND MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE WIND SHEAR...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL PERSIST...ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING. WITH THIS...OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FROM TONIGHT ON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE SOMEWHAT SPOTTY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH A MORE
PRONOUNCED/WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL IN ALL...WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH
AMOUNTS MAY LOCALLY EXCEED 5 TO 6 INCHES. THIS CERTAINLY WONT HELP
THE EXISTING RIVER FLOODING CONDITIONS...AND WILL LIKELY PROMOTE
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING.

ONCE THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER...SOMETIME
SUNDAY...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN...BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES
AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. MID LEVEL RIDGING MAY ATTEMPT TO BUILD INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG RANGE MODELS
PROVIDE LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON THE LONGER TERM WEATHER PICTURE.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  81  66  80 /  40  50  60  50
HOBART OK         65  82  65  79 /  50  50  60  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  84  67  82 /  40  40  60  50
GAGE OK           63  82  62  80 /  50  50  50  50
PONCA CITY OK     66  80  69  80 /  50  50  50  60
DURANT OK         67  83  69  81 /  30  40  60  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

06/84



000
FXUS64 KOUN 272013
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
313 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL REMAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL...AND SEVERE STORM CHANCES.

AN AREA OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PERSISTED NOW FOR
SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL AT TIMES. THIS HAS LEAD TO SOME FLOODING
CONCERNS OVER GARVIN AND PONTOTOC COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

FROM NOW THROUGH TONIGHT...WATER VAPOR DEPICTS A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE CLOSING IN ON THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND SW KS. THIS
HAS RECENTLY LED TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR
A DRYLINE/BOUNDARY INTERSECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TX PANHANDLE.
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA AS SURFACE
HEATING CONTINUES TO ERODE THE WEAK CAPPING INVERSION. STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
CONCERN. AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD AND THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE
CONDUCIVE TO STORM ROTATION...A TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL ALSO PROMOTE A THREAT OF
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. WHILE MANY HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW
THESE STORMS DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AN INTENSIFYING
LOW LEVEL JET WOULD POINT TO STORM MAINTENANCE WELL AFTER
DARK...AND EXPECT AN EASTWARD MOVING COMPLEX/CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY
DEVELOP TONIGHT...GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE FLOOD
THREAT MAY INCREASE MARKEDLY IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT...AS
TRAINING STORM CORES DUMP HEAVY RAINS OVER THE SAME AREAS.

STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING. A MORE
PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR AND HIGH INSTABILITY...EXPECT A
SEVERE THREAT ONCE AGAIN. STORMS MAY MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE
EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING STORM COMPLEX...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
AGAIN...STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A SLOW
MOVING FRONT APPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...AND MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE WIND SHEAR...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL PERSIST...ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING. WITH THIS...OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FROM TONIGHT ON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE SOMEWHAT SPOTTY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH A MORE
PRONOUNCED/WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL IN ALL...WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH
AMOUNTS MAY LOCALLY EXCEED 5 TO 6 INCHES. THIS CERTAINLY WONT HELP
THE EXISTING RIVER FLOODING CONDITIONS...AND WILL LIKELY PROMOTE
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING.

ONCE THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER...SOMETIME
SUNDAY...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN...BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES
AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. MID LEVEL RIDGING MAY ATTEMPT TO BUILD INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG RANGE MODELS
PROVIDE LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON THE LONGER TERM WEATHER PICTURE.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  81  66  80 /  40  50  60  50
HOBART OK         65  82  65  79 /  50  50  60  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  84  67  82 /  40  40  60  50
GAGE OK           63  82  62  80 /  50  50  50  50
PONCA CITY OK     66  80  69  80 /  50  50  50  60
DURANT OK         67  83  69  81 /  30  40  60  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

06/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 272013
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
313 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL REMAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL...AND SEVERE STORM CHANCES.

AN AREA OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PERSISTED NOW FOR
SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL AT TIMES. THIS HAS LEAD TO SOME FLOODING
CONCERNS OVER GARVIN AND PONTOTOC COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

FROM NOW THROUGH TONIGHT...WATER VAPOR DEPICTS A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE CLOSING IN ON THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND SW KS. THIS
HAS RECENTLY LED TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR
A DRYLINE/BOUNDARY INTERSECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TX PANHANDLE.
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA AS SURFACE
HEATING CONTINUES TO ERODE THE WEAK CAPPING INVERSION. STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
CONCERN. AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD AND THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE
CONDUCIVE TO STORM ROTATION...A TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL ALSO PROMOTE A THREAT OF
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. WHILE MANY HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW
THESE STORMS DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AN INTENSIFYING
LOW LEVEL JET WOULD POINT TO STORM MAINTENANCE WELL AFTER
DARK...AND EXPECT AN EASTWARD MOVING COMPLEX/CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY
DEVELOP TONIGHT...GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE FLOOD
THREAT MAY INCREASE MARKEDLY IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT...AS
TRAINING STORM CORES DUMP HEAVY RAINS OVER THE SAME AREAS.

STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING. A MORE
PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR AND HIGH INSTABILITY...EXPECT A
SEVERE THREAT ONCE AGAIN. STORMS MAY MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE
EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING STORM COMPLEX...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
AGAIN...STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A SLOW
MOVING FRONT APPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...AND MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE WIND SHEAR...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL PERSIST...ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING. WITH THIS...OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FROM TONIGHT ON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE SOMEWHAT SPOTTY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH A MORE
PRONOUNCED/WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL IN ALL...WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH
AMOUNTS MAY LOCALLY EXCEED 5 TO 6 INCHES. THIS CERTAINLY WONT HELP
THE EXISTING RIVER FLOODING CONDITIONS...AND WILL LIKELY PROMOTE
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING.

ONCE THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER...SOMETIME
SUNDAY...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN...BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES
AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. MID LEVEL RIDGING MAY ATTEMPT TO BUILD INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG RANGE MODELS
PROVIDE LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON THE LONGER TERM WEATHER PICTURE.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  81  66  80 /  40  50  60  50
HOBART OK         65  82  65  79 /  50  50  60  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  84  67  82 /  40  40  60  50
GAGE OK           63  82  62  80 /  50  50  50  50
PONCA CITY OK     66  80  69  80 /  50  50  50  60
DURANT OK         67  83  69  81 /  30  40  60  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

06/84




000
FXUS64 KTSA 271941
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
241 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME EXPANDING TO THE
EAST INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LARGELY DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SIGNS ON AREA RADAR DATA IN THE PAST HALF
HOUR OR SO OF SOME ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT JUST SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND AN AREA
OF MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS COULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING IN MAINLY NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS
EVENING FROM THE WEST. THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND
THE PANHANDLES REGION ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. SUCCESSIVE DISTURBANCES INTO FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING GIVEN ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.

MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONGER DISTURBANCE AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WOULD BRING A
GREATER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
REQUIRED IN THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.

AFTER THIS WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES FOR AT LEAST A SHORT TIME...LEADING TO
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND A DECREASE IN THE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  84  69  81 /  30  50  40  60
FSM   68  84  68  83 /  30  50  50  60
MLC   68  83  69  81 /  30  50  50  60
BVO   66  82  67  81 /  40  50  40  60
FYV   63  80  65  79 /  20  50  40  60
BYV   63  82  67  80 /  30  50  40  60
MKO   67  82  68  81 /  30  50  40  60
MIO   65  82  68  79 /  30  50  40  60
F10   67  82  68  81 /  30  50  50  60
HHW   68  83  69  83 /  30  50  50  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 271941
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
241 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME EXPANDING TO THE
EAST INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LARGELY DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SIGNS ON AREA RADAR DATA IN THE PAST HALF
HOUR OR SO OF SOME ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT JUST SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND AN AREA
OF MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS COULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING IN MAINLY NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS
EVENING FROM THE WEST. THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND
THE PANHANDLES REGION ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. SUCCESSIVE DISTURBANCES INTO FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING GIVEN ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.

MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONGER DISTURBANCE AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WOULD BRING A
GREATER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
REQUIRED IN THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.

AFTER THIS WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES FOR AT LEAST A SHORT TIME...LEADING TO
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND A DECREASE IN THE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  84  69  81 /  30  50  40  60
FSM   68  84  68  83 /  30  50  50  60
MLC   68  83  69  81 /  30  50  50  60
BVO   66  82  67  81 /  40  50  40  60
FYV   63  80  65  79 /  20  50  40  60
BYV   63  82  67  80 /  30  50  40  60
MKO   67  82  68  81 /  30  50  40  60
MIO   65  82  68  79 /  30  50  40  60
F10   67  82  68  81 /  30  50  50  60
HHW   68  83  69  83 /  30  50  50  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....22





000
FXUS64 KOUN 271803
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
103 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THOUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...INCLUDED TEMPO
FOR TSRA AT BOTH OKC AND OUN.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA. INCLUDED TEMPO FOR TSRA AT
KGAG/KWWR/KCSM/KHBR/KLAW THROUGH THE EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THESE
STORMS WILL DISSIPATE AS THEY APPROACH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
HOWEVER...THE 4KM NAM AND OPERATIONAL NAM INDICATE THE STORMS WILL
AFFECT KSPS/KOKC/KOUN/KPNC. OPTED NOT TO MENTION TSRA AT THESE
SITES FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

LATE TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...WITH MVFR TO
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS. SOME FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT
DID NOT TO MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

MAHALE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

AVIATION...
A SMALL AREA OF DENSE FG HAS FORMED ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE W EDGE OF
DEPARTING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. THIS FG APPEARS TO BE VERY
SHALLOW...SO SHOULD BE GONE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO. A FEW SHRA AND
TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED IN PARTS OF W OK...AND A FEW MAY AFFECT TAF
SITES. IN PARTICULAR...A RATHER STRONG TSRA WILL PROBABLY PASS
OVER OR NEAR KLAW AROUND 12Z. THESE ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD
DISSIPATE AROUND MID- TO LATE-MORNING. NEW TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND 19Z IN SW OK. THESE TSRA WILL LIKELY
SPREAD OUT AND ADVANCE NE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AFFECTING MAINLY W AND N OK AND THE KSPS AREA...BUT A
FEW MAY REACH KOKC/KOUN THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. BR/FG MAY FORM
AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING...BUT UNTIL WE HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF WHERE
POST-THUNDERSTORM CLOUDS WILL BE...ANY FORECAST OF BR/FG WOULD BE
LITTLE MORE THAN A GUESS.

CMS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DEPARTING CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS HAVE LEFT A SITUATION SIMILAR TO THIS
TIME YESTERDAY...WITH CLEARING SKIES OVER VERY HIGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AT THE SURFACE. THIS RESULTED IN AN AREA OF DENSE FOG
YESTERDAY MORNING. SO FAR TODAY...HOWEVER...THERE ARE NO
SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS...AND WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THAT
ANY FOG WILL DEVELOP...HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE IT IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING.

THE 00Z AND 06Z NAM GENERATES A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING...THEN DRIVES IT WEST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE NO REAL
JUSTIFICATION FOR THIS SCENARIO...SO HAVE IGNORED THE NAM FOR THE
FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.

THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL FEATURE WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR THE
SURFACE...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY...AND LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FOCUSING MECHANISMS. SO...EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH
RELATIVELY LITTLE GEOGRAPHIC OR TIMING COHERENCE. THIS CHANGES
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM...FOLLOWED
BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT...MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. RAIN
WILL BE MORE LIKELY...AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL INCREASE OVERALL.

BEGINNING SUNDAY OR MONDAY...UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO TAKE
HOLD...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS. ASSUMING THIS HAPPENS...IT WILL FINALLY SHUT
DOWN THE ALMOST DAILY BARRAGES OF STORMS AND FLOODING
RAIN...LEAVING ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS.
WITH THE VERY WET GROUND...THESE AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
MORE COMMON THAN IN A NORMAL SUMMER PATTERN. SIMILARLY...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE
BE EXPECTED...AS THE HEAT IS USED TO EVAPORATE WATER RATHER THAN
HEAT THE GROUND AND ADJACENT AIR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  80  65  80  66 /  40  40  50  60
HOBART OK         84  64  78  63 /  40  50  50  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  86  65  82  66 /  50  40  40  70
GAGE OK           83  62  80  61 /  40  50  50  50
PONCA CITY OK     82  65  80  66 /  30  40  40  50
DURANT OK         82  66  82  67 /  60  40  40  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/84/10



000
FXUS64 KOUN 271803
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
103 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THOUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...INCLUDED TEMPO
FOR TSRA AT BOTH OKC AND OUN.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA. INCLUDED TEMPO FOR TSRA AT
KGAG/KWWR/KCSM/KHBR/KLAW THROUGH THE EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THESE
STORMS WILL DISSIPATE AS THEY APPROACH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
HOWEVER...THE 4KM NAM AND OPERATIONAL NAM INDICATE THE STORMS WILL
AFFECT KSPS/KOKC/KOUN/KPNC. OPTED NOT TO MENTION TSRA AT THESE
SITES FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

LATE TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...WITH MVFR TO
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS. SOME FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT
DID NOT TO MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

MAHALE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

AVIATION...
A SMALL AREA OF DENSE FG HAS FORMED ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE W EDGE OF
DEPARTING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. THIS FG APPEARS TO BE VERY
SHALLOW...SO SHOULD BE GONE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO. A FEW SHRA AND
TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED IN PARTS OF W OK...AND A FEW MAY AFFECT TAF
SITES. IN PARTICULAR...A RATHER STRONG TSRA WILL PROBABLY PASS
OVER OR NEAR KLAW AROUND 12Z. THESE ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD
DISSIPATE AROUND MID- TO LATE-MORNING. NEW TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND 19Z IN SW OK. THESE TSRA WILL LIKELY
SPREAD OUT AND ADVANCE NE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AFFECTING MAINLY W AND N OK AND THE KSPS AREA...BUT A
FEW MAY REACH KOKC/KOUN THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. BR/FG MAY FORM
AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING...BUT UNTIL WE HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF WHERE
POST-THUNDERSTORM CLOUDS WILL BE...ANY FORECAST OF BR/FG WOULD BE
LITTLE MORE THAN A GUESS.

CMS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DEPARTING CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS HAVE LEFT A SITUATION SIMILAR TO THIS
TIME YESTERDAY...WITH CLEARING SKIES OVER VERY HIGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AT THE SURFACE. THIS RESULTED IN AN AREA OF DENSE FOG
YESTERDAY MORNING. SO FAR TODAY...HOWEVER...THERE ARE NO
SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS...AND WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THAT
ANY FOG WILL DEVELOP...HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE IT IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING.

THE 00Z AND 06Z NAM GENERATES A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING...THEN DRIVES IT WEST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE NO REAL
JUSTIFICATION FOR THIS SCENARIO...SO HAVE IGNORED THE NAM FOR THE
FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.

THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL FEATURE WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR THE
SURFACE...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY...AND LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FOCUSING MECHANISMS. SO...EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH
RELATIVELY LITTLE GEOGRAPHIC OR TIMING COHERENCE. THIS CHANGES
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM...FOLLOWED
BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT...MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. RAIN
WILL BE MORE LIKELY...AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL INCREASE OVERALL.

BEGINNING SUNDAY OR MONDAY...UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO TAKE
HOLD...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS. ASSUMING THIS HAPPENS...IT WILL FINALLY SHUT
DOWN THE ALMOST DAILY BARRAGES OF STORMS AND FLOODING
RAIN...LEAVING ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS.
WITH THE VERY WET GROUND...THESE AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
MORE COMMON THAN IN A NORMAL SUMMER PATTERN. SIMILARLY...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE
BE EXPECTED...AS THE HEAT IS USED TO EVAPORATE WATER RATHER THAN
HEAT THE GROUND AND ADJACENT AIR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  80  65  80  66 /  40  40  50  60
HOBART OK         84  64  78  63 /  40  50  50  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  86  65  82  66 /  50  40  40  70
GAGE OK           83  62  80  61 /  40  50  50  50
PONCA CITY OK     82  65  80  66 /  30  40  40  50
DURANT OK         82  66  82  67 /  60  40  40  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/84/10




000
FXUS64 KOUN 271803
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
103 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THOUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...INCLUDED TEMPO
FOR TSRA AT BOTH OKC AND OUN.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA. INCLUDED TEMPO FOR TSRA AT
KGAG/KWWR/KCSM/KHBR/KLAW THROUGH THE EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THESE
STORMS WILL DISSIPATE AS THEY APPROACH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
HOWEVER...THE 4KM NAM AND OPERATIONAL NAM INDICATE THE STORMS WILL
AFFECT KSPS/KOKC/KOUN/KPNC. OPTED NOT TO MENTION TSRA AT THESE
SITES FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

LATE TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...WITH MVFR TO
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS. SOME FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT
DID NOT TO MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

MAHALE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

AVIATION...
A SMALL AREA OF DENSE FG HAS FORMED ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE W EDGE OF
DEPARTING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. THIS FG APPEARS TO BE VERY
SHALLOW...SO SHOULD BE GONE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO. A FEW SHRA AND
TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED IN PARTS OF W OK...AND A FEW MAY AFFECT TAF
SITES. IN PARTICULAR...A RATHER STRONG TSRA WILL PROBABLY PASS
OVER OR NEAR KLAW AROUND 12Z. THESE ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD
DISSIPATE AROUND MID- TO LATE-MORNING. NEW TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND 19Z IN SW OK. THESE TSRA WILL LIKELY
SPREAD OUT AND ADVANCE NE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AFFECTING MAINLY W AND N OK AND THE KSPS AREA...BUT A
FEW MAY REACH KOKC/KOUN THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. BR/FG MAY FORM
AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING...BUT UNTIL WE HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF WHERE
POST-THUNDERSTORM CLOUDS WILL BE...ANY FORECAST OF BR/FG WOULD BE
LITTLE MORE THAN A GUESS.

CMS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DEPARTING CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS HAVE LEFT A SITUATION SIMILAR TO THIS
TIME YESTERDAY...WITH CLEARING SKIES OVER VERY HIGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AT THE SURFACE. THIS RESULTED IN AN AREA OF DENSE FOG
YESTERDAY MORNING. SO FAR TODAY...HOWEVER...THERE ARE NO
SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS...AND WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THAT
ANY FOG WILL DEVELOP...HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE IT IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING.

THE 00Z AND 06Z NAM GENERATES A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING...THEN DRIVES IT WEST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE NO REAL
JUSTIFICATION FOR THIS SCENARIO...SO HAVE IGNORED THE NAM FOR THE
FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.

THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL FEATURE WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR THE
SURFACE...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY...AND LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FOCUSING MECHANISMS. SO...EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH
RELATIVELY LITTLE GEOGRAPHIC OR TIMING COHERENCE. THIS CHANGES
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM...FOLLOWED
BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT...MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. RAIN
WILL BE MORE LIKELY...AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL INCREASE OVERALL.

BEGINNING SUNDAY OR MONDAY...UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO TAKE
HOLD...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS. ASSUMING THIS HAPPENS...IT WILL FINALLY SHUT
DOWN THE ALMOST DAILY BARRAGES OF STORMS AND FLOODING
RAIN...LEAVING ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS.
WITH THE VERY WET GROUND...THESE AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
MORE COMMON THAN IN A NORMAL SUMMER PATTERN. SIMILARLY...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE
BE EXPECTED...AS THE HEAT IS USED TO EVAPORATE WATER RATHER THAN
HEAT THE GROUND AND ADJACENT AIR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  80  65  80  66 /  40  40  50  60
HOBART OK         84  64  78  63 /  40  50  50  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  86  65  82  66 /  50  40  40  70
GAGE OK           83  62  80  61 /  40  50  50  50
PONCA CITY OK     82  65  80  66 /  30  40  40  50
DURANT OK         82  66  82  67 /  60  40  40  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/84/10




000
FXUS64 KTSA 271718
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1218 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE KMLC TAF SITE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST
AR. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN
AND NEAR STORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF
SRN/SERN OK...ALONG SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS ACTIVITY
MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY
DRIFTING E IN SERN OK. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON NEAR DIFFUSE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS NE OK. HAVE OPTED FOR A BROADBRUSH
30 POPS/SCATTERED SHOWER-THUNDERSTORM FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  84  69  81 /  40  40  50  60
FSM   68  84  68  83 /  40  40  50  60
MLC   68  83  69  81 /  40  40  50  60
BVO   66  82  67  81 /  40  40  50  60
FYV   63  80  65  79 /  40  40  50  60
BYV   63  82  67  80 /  40  40  50  60
MKO   67  82  68  81 /  40  40  50  60
MIO   65  82  68  79 /  40  40  50  60
F10   67  82  68  81 /  40  40  50  60
HHW   68  83  69  83 /  40  40  50  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 271718
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1218 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE KMLC TAF SITE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST
AR. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN
AND NEAR STORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF
SRN/SERN OK...ALONG SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS ACTIVITY
MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY
DRIFTING E IN SERN OK. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON NEAR DIFFUSE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS NE OK. HAVE OPTED FOR A BROADBRUSH
30 POPS/SCATTERED SHOWER-THUNDERSTORM FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  84  69  81 /  40  40  50  60
FSM   68  84  68  83 /  40  40  50  60
MLC   68  83  69  81 /  40  40  50  60
BVO   66  82  67  81 /  40  40  50  60
FYV   63  80  65  79 /  40  40  50  60
BYV   63  82  67  80 /  40  40  50  60
MKO   67  82  68  81 /  40  40  50  60
MIO   65  82  68  79 /  40  40  50  60
F10   67  82  68  81 /  40  40  50  60
HHW   68  83  69  83 /  40  40  50  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18





000
FXUS64 KTSA 271601
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1101 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF
SRN/SERN OK...ALONG SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS ACTIVITY
MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY
DRIFTING E IN SERN OK. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON NEAR DIFFUSE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS NE OK. HAVE OPTED FOR A BROADBRUSH
30 POPS/SCATTERED SHOWER-THUNDERSTORM FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   82  66  82  68 /  40  40  40  50
FSM   81  67  83  67 /  40  40  40  50
MLC   81  67  81  67 /  40  40  40  50
BVO   81  65  80  66 /  40  40  40  50
FYV   79  61  78  66 /  40  40  40  50
BYV   82  62  80  66 /  40  40  40  50
MKO   79  66  79  67 /  40  40  40  50
MIO   82  62  80  67 /  40  40  40  50
F10   80  66  80  67 /  40  40  40  50
HHW   80  66  82  68 /  40  40  40  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 271601
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1101 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF
SRN/SERN OK...ALONG SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS ACTIVITY
MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY
DRIFTING E IN SERN OK. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON NEAR DIFFUSE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS NE OK. HAVE OPTED FOR A BROADBRUSH
30 POPS/SCATTERED SHOWER-THUNDERSTORM FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   82  66  82  68 /  40  40  40  50
FSM   81  67  83  67 /  40  40  40  50
MLC   81  67  81  67 /  40  40  40  50
BVO   81  65  80  66 /  40  40  40  50
FYV   79  61  78  66 /  40  40  40  50
BYV   82  62  80  66 /  40  40  40  50
MKO   79  66  79  67 /  40  40  40  50
MIO   82  62  80  67 /  40  40  40  50
F10   80  66  80  67 /  40  40  40  50
HHW   80  66  82  68 /  40  40  40  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....22





000
FXUS64 KTSA 271601
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1101 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF
SRN/SERN OK...ALONG SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS ACTIVITY
MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY
DRIFTING E IN SERN OK. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON NEAR DIFFUSE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS NE OK. HAVE OPTED FOR A BROADBRUSH
30 POPS/SCATTERED SHOWER-THUNDERSTORM FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   82  66  82  68 /  40  40  40  50
FSM   81  67  83  67 /  40  40  40  50
MLC   81  67  81  67 /  40  40  40  50
BVO   81  65  80  66 /  40  40  40  50
FYV   79  61  78  66 /  40  40  40  50
BYV   82  62  80  66 /  40  40  40  50
MKO   79  66  79  67 /  40  40  40  50
MIO   82  62  80  67 /  40  40  40  50
F10   80  66  80  67 /  40  40  40  50
HHW   80  66  82  68 /  40  40  40  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....22






    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities