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000
FXUS64 KTSA 310908
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
408 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Low chance pop this afternoon for southeast
OK and northwest AR...not unlike yesterday.

Long stretch of very warm dry weather while
H500 ridge expands from NM west TX into the
Great Lakes Region. Daytime highs generally
upper 80s to lower 90s  and  overnight lows
upper 60s to lower 70s.

Both...ECMWF and GFS swing significant H500
wave from Alaska into the Pacific Northwest
by Friday..then across northern US southern
CN border area. This will push a cold front
our way around or a little after Labor Day.
gw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   92  73  93  73 /   0  10   0   0
FSM   93  71  94  71 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   92  71  93  72 /   0  10  10  10
BVO   92  68  93  67 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   88  66  89  66 /  10  10  10  10
BYV   88  67  89  68 /  20  10  10  10
MKO   89  70  91  70 /   0  10   0  10
MIO   89  69  90  69 /   0  10   0  10
F10   91  72  92  71 /   0  10   0  10
HHW   95  72  95  71 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21




000
FXUS64 KTSA 310908
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
408 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Low chance pop this afternoon for southeast
OK and northwest AR...not unlike yesterday.

Long stretch of very warm dry weather while
H500 ridge expands from NM west TX into the
Great Lakes Region. Daytime highs generally
upper 80s to lower 90s  and  overnight lows
upper 60s to lower 70s.

Both...ECMWF and GFS swing significant H500
wave from Alaska into the Pacific Northwest
by Friday..then across northern US southern
CN border area. This will push a cold front
our way around or a little after Labor Day.
gw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   92  73  93  73 /   0  10   0   0
FSM   93  71  94  71 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   92  71  93  72 /   0  10  10  10
BVO   92  68  93  67 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   88  66  89  66 /  10  10  10  10
BYV   88  67  89  68 /  20  10  10  10
MKO   89  70  91  70 /   0  10   0  10
MIO   89  69  90  69 /   0  10   0  10
F10   91  72  92  71 /   0  10   0  10
HHW   95  72  95  71 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21




000
FXUS64 KTSA 310908
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
408 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Low chance pop this afternoon for southeast
OK and northwest AR...not unlike yesterday.

Long stretch of very warm dry weather while
H500 ridge expands from NM west TX into the
Great Lakes Region. Daytime highs generally
upper 80s to lower 90s  and  overnight lows
upper 60s to lower 70s.

Both...ECMWF and GFS swing significant H500
wave from Alaska into the Pacific Northwest
by Friday..then across northern US southern
CN border area. This will push a cold front
our way around or a little after Labor Day.
gw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   92  73  93  73 /   0  10   0   0
FSM   93  71  94  71 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   92  71  93  72 /   0  10  10  10
BVO   92  68  93  67 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   88  66  89  66 /  10  10  10  10
BYV   88  67  89  68 /  20  10  10  10
MKO   89  70  91  70 /   0  10   0  10
MIO   89  69  90  69 /   0  10   0  10
F10   91  72  92  71 /   0  10   0  10
HHW   95  72  95  71 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21




000
FXUS64 KTSA 310908
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
408 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Low chance pop this afternoon for southeast
OK and northwest AR...not unlike yesterday.

Long stretch of very warm dry weather while
H500 ridge expands from NM west TX into the
Great Lakes Region. Daytime highs generally
upper 80s to lower 90s  and  overnight lows
upper 60s to lower 70s.

Both...ECMWF and GFS swing significant H500
wave from Alaska into the Pacific Northwest
by Friday..then across northern US southern
CN border area. This will push a cold front
our way around or a little after Labor Day.
gw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   92  73  93  73 /   0  10   0   0
FSM   93  71  94  71 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   92  71  93  72 /   0  10  10  10
BVO   92  68  93  67 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   88  66  89  66 /  10  10  10  10
BYV   88  67  89  68 /  20  10  10  10
MKO   89  70  91  70 /   0  10   0  10
MIO   89  69  90  69 /   0  10   0  10
F10   91  72  92  71 /   0  10   0  10
HHW   95  72  95  71 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KOUN 310829
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
329 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOG WILL BE SEEN AGAIN ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...MAINLY NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. SOME DENSE FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE UP AROUND ENID...ALVA...AND PONCA CITY BUT DO NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECT DURATION/COVERAGE TO NECESSITATE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY.

WILL ALSO INCLUDE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. MAY NOT BE AS
ORGANIZED AS YESTERDAY WITH ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...BUT
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST WITH NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPS MOST AREAS AND DRY FORECAST UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE FRONTAL INTRUSION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  93  70  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         96  70  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  71  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           96  68  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     94  71  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         95  71  93  71 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 310540 AAB
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1240 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
31/06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL MENTION MVFR BR AT KPNC THROUGH 15Z WITH SOME DENSE FOG NOT
OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD WITH RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

UPDATE...
RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE FA. THE REST OF THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY BUT IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN SE PARTS OF THE
FA. HOWEVER... WILL KEEP POP/WX FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. CLOUDS IN
THE SE ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA
SO WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE FORECAST. UPDATES OUT SOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT... BUT CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION
AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY WITH SOME GUSTS
APPROACHING 20KTS ACROSS THE WEST BY AFTN.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM NEAR A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NEAR WAURIKA TO
COALGATE. CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG...HOWEVER A MID LEVEL
WEAKNESS CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA MAY BE ENOUGH FOR TO
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. THUS...WENT WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE IN THESE LOCATIONS. IF STORMS FORM...THEY WOULD BE SLOW
MOVERS...PRODUCE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS...AND GUSTY WINDS PERHAPS UP
TO 50 TO 60 MPH. ANY CONVECTION WOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

AFTER 10 PM THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING...PATCHY FOG MAY FORM
AGAIN ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER NEAR ALVA...
ENID...AND CHEROKEE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS HIGHER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT.
THUS...ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG. DOUBT FOG WILL BE TOO DENSE
OR WIDESPREAD SINCE NO RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS TODAY.

MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOTTER WITH INCREASING SOUTH
SURFACE WINDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING STORM IN SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA TO ADA LINE WHERE MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND CAPPING IS A BIT
WEAKER...BUT WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...SEASONABLY HOT AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. LOW
STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN TO MAINLY NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  70  92  71  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         71  96  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  97  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           69  95  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     70  93  71  92 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  94  71  94 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/30




000
FXUS64 KOUN 310540 AAB
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1240 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
31/06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL MENTION MVFR BR AT KPNC THROUGH 15Z WITH SOME DENSE FOG NOT
OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD WITH RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

UPDATE...
RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE FA. THE REST OF THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY BUT IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN SE PARTS OF THE
FA. HOWEVER... WILL KEEP POP/WX FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. CLOUDS IN
THE SE ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA
SO WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE FORECAST. UPDATES OUT SOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT... BUT CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION
AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY WITH SOME GUSTS
APPROACHING 20KTS ACROSS THE WEST BY AFTN.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM NEAR A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NEAR WAURIKA TO
COALGATE. CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG...HOWEVER A MID LEVEL
WEAKNESS CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA MAY BE ENOUGH FOR TO
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. THUS...WENT WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE IN THESE LOCATIONS. IF STORMS FORM...THEY WOULD BE SLOW
MOVERS...PRODUCE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS...AND GUSTY WINDS PERHAPS UP
TO 50 TO 60 MPH. ANY CONVECTION WOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

AFTER 10 PM THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING...PATCHY FOG MAY FORM
AGAIN ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER NEAR ALVA...
ENID...AND CHEROKEE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS HIGHER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT.
THUS...ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG. DOUBT FOG WILL BE TOO DENSE
OR WIDESPREAD SINCE NO RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS TODAY.

MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOTTER WITH INCREASING SOUTH
SURFACE WINDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING STORM IN SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA TO ADA LINE WHERE MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND CAPPING IS A BIT
WEAKER...BUT WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...SEASONABLY HOT AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. LOW
STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN TO MAINLY NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  70  92  71  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         71  96  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  97  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           69  95  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     70  93  71  92 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  94  71  94 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/30



000
FXUS64 KOUN 310540 AAB
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1240 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
31/06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL MENTION MVFR BR AT KPNC THROUGH 15Z WITH SOME DENSE FOG NOT
OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD WITH RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

UPDATE...
RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE FA. THE REST OF THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY BUT IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN SE PARTS OF THE
FA. HOWEVER... WILL KEEP POP/WX FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. CLOUDS IN
THE SE ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA
SO WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE FORECAST. UPDATES OUT SOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT... BUT CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION
AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY WITH SOME GUSTS
APPROACHING 20KTS ACROSS THE WEST BY AFTN.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM NEAR A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NEAR WAURIKA TO
COALGATE. CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG...HOWEVER A MID LEVEL
WEAKNESS CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA MAY BE ENOUGH FOR TO
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. THUS...WENT WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE IN THESE LOCATIONS. IF STORMS FORM...THEY WOULD BE SLOW
MOVERS...PRODUCE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS...AND GUSTY WINDS PERHAPS UP
TO 50 TO 60 MPH. ANY CONVECTION WOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

AFTER 10 PM THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING...PATCHY FOG MAY FORM
AGAIN ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER NEAR ALVA...
ENID...AND CHEROKEE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS HIGHER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT.
THUS...ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG. DOUBT FOG WILL BE TOO DENSE
OR WIDESPREAD SINCE NO RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS TODAY.

MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOTTER WITH INCREASING SOUTH
SURFACE WINDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING STORM IN SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA TO ADA LINE WHERE MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND CAPPING IS A BIT
WEAKER...BUT WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...SEASONABLY HOT AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. LOW
STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN TO MAINLY NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  70  92  71  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         71  96  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  97  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           69  95  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     70  93  71  92 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  94  71  94 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/30



000
FXUS64 KOUN 310540 AAB
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1240 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
31/06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL MENTION MVFR BR AT KPNC THROUGH 15Z WITH SOME DENSE FOG NOT
OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD WITH RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

UPDATE...
RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE FA. THE REST OF THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY BUT IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN SE PARTS OF THE
FA. HOWEVER... WILL KEEP POP/WX FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. CLOUDS IN
THE SE ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA
SO WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE FORECAST. UPDATES OUT SOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT... BUT CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION
AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY WITH SOME GUSTS
APPROACHING 20KTS ACROSS THE WEST BY AFTN.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM NEAR A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NEAR WAURIKA TO
COALGATE. CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG...HOWEVER A MID LEVEL
WEAKNESS CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA MAY BE ENOUGH FOR TO
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. THUS...WENT WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE IN THESE LOCATIONS. IF STORMS FORM...THEY WOULD BE SLOW
MOVERS...PRODUCE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS...AND GUSTY WINDS PERHAPS UP
TO 50 TO 60 MPH. ANY CONVECTION WOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

AFTER 10 PM THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING...PATCHY FOG MAY FORM
AGAIN ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER NEAR ALVA...
ENID...AND CHEROKEE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS HIGHER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT.
THUS...ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG. DOUBT FOG WILL BE TOO DENSE
OR WIDESPREAD SINCE NO RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS TODAY.

MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOTTER WITH INCREASING SOUTH
SURFACE WINDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING STORM IN SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA TO ADA LINE WHERE MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND CAPPING IS A BIT
WEAKER...BUT WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...SEASONABLY HOT AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. LOW
STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN TO MAINLY NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  70  92  71  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         71  96  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  97  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           69  95  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     70  93  71  92 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  94  71  94 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/30



000
FXUS64 KOUN 310540 AAB
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1240 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
31/06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL MENTION MVFR BR AT KPNC THROUGH 15Z WITH SOME DENSE FOG NOT
OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD WITH RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

UPDATE...
RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE FA. THE REST OF THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY BUT IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN SE PARTS OF THE
FA. HOWEVER... WILL KEEP POP/WX FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. CLOUDS IN
THE SE ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA
SO WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE FORECAST. UPDATES OUT SOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT... BUT CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION
AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY WITH SOME GUSTS
APPROACHING 20KTS ACROSS THE WEST BY AFTN.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM NEAR A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NEAR WAURIKA TO
COALGATE. CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG...HOWEVER A MID LEVEL
WEAKNESS CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA MAY BE ENOUGH FOR TO
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. THUS...WENT WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE IN THESE LOCATIONS. IF STORMS FORM...THEY WOULD BE SLOW
MOVERS...PRODUCE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS...AND GUSTY WINDS PERHAPS UP
TO 50 TO 60 MPH. ANY CONVECTION WOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

AFTER 10 PM THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING...PATCHY FOG MAY FORM
AGAIN ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER NEAR ALVA...
ENID...AND CHEROKEE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS HIGHER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT.
THUS...ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG. DOUBT FOG WILL BE TOO DENSE
OR WIDESPREAD SINCE NO RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS TODAY.

MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOTTER WITH INCREASING SOUTH
SURFACE WINDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING STORM IN SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA TO ADA LINE WHERE MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND CAPPING IS A BIT
WEAKER...BUT WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...SEASONABLY HOT AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. LOW
STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN TO MAINLY NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  70  92  71  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         71  96  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  97  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           69  95  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     70  93  71  92 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  94  71  94 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/30



000
FXUS64 KTSA 310451
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1151 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the overnight
period...however coverage will remain too low for taf inclusion.
Therefore...VFR conditions are expected through the taf period at
all sites.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Vapor imagery depicts smaller scale circulation within the larger
scale trough and this feature is likely to have aided in the
uptick in convective coverage this afternoon and evening. Isolated
thunderstorms will remain possible overnight given the lack of mid
level inhibition within the deeper moisture across far E OK and W
AR. Updated forecast will account for rain cooled conditions
across SE OK otherwise the forecast is on track.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23



000
FXUS64 KTSA 310451
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1151 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the overnight
period...however coverage will remain too low for taf inclusion.
Therefore...VFR conditions are expected through the taf period at
all sites.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Vapor imagery depicts smaller scale circulation within the larger
scale trough and this feature is likely to have aided in the
uptick in convective coverage this afternoon and evening. Isolated
thunderstorms will remain possible overnight given the lack of mid
level inhibition within the deeper moisture across far E OK and W
AR. Updated forecast will account for rain cooled conditions
across SE OK otherwise the forecast is on track.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23



000
FXUS64 KTSA 310451
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1151 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the overnight
period...however coverage will remain too low for taf inclusion.
Therefore...VFR conditions are expected through the taf period at
all sites.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Vapor imagery depicts smaller scale circulation within the larger
scale trough and this feature is likely to have aided in the
uptick in convective coverage this afternoon and evening. Isolated
thunderstorms will remain possible overnight given the lack of mid
level inhibition within the deeper moisture across far E OK and W
AR. Updated forecast will account for rain cooled conditions
across SE OK otherwise the forecast is on track.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23



000
FXUS64 KTSA 310451
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1151 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the overnight
period...however coverage will remain too low for taf inclusion.
Therefore...VFR conditions are expected through the taf period at
all sites.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Vapor imagery depicts smaller scale circulation within the larger
scale trough and this feature is likely to have aided in the
uptick in convective coverage this afternoon and evening. Isolated
thunderstorms will remain possible overnight given the lack of mid
level inhibition within the deeper moisture across far E OK and W
AR. Updated forecast will account for rain cooled conditions
across SE OK otherwise the forecast is on track.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23



000
FXUS64 KTSA 310231
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
931 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Vapor imagery depicts smaller scale circulation within the larger
scale trough and this feature is likely to have aided in the
uptick in convective coverage this afternoon and evening. Isolated
thunderstorms will remain possible overnight given the lack of mid
level inhibition within the deeper moisture across far E OK and W
AR. Updated forecast will account for rain cooled conditions
across SE OK otherwise the forecast is on track.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  93  72  93 /  10   0   0  10
FSM   71  93  71  94 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   72  93  71  93 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   65  93  68  93 /  10  10   0  10
FYV   68  88  67  90 /  20  10  10  10
BYV   69  88  68  91 /  20  10  10  10
MKO   69  90  69  91 /  20  10   0  10
MIO   69  92  69  92 /  20   0   0  10
F10   71  92  71  92 /  20   0  10  10
HHW   69  95  70  94 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07



000
FXUS64 KTSA 310231
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
931 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Vapor imagery depicts smaller scale circulation within the larger
scale trough and this feature is likely to have aided in the
uptick in convective coverage this afternoon and evening. Isolated
thunderstorms will remain possible overnight given the lack of mid
level inhibition within the deeper moisture across far E OK and W
AR. Updated forecast will account for rain cooled conditions
across SE OK otherwise the forecast is on track.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  93  72  93 /  10   0   0  10
FSM   71  93  71  94 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   72  93  71  93 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   65  93  68  93 /  10  10   0  10
FYV   68  88  67  90 /  20  10  10  10
BYV   69  88  68  91 /  20  10  10  10
MKO   69  90  69  91 /  20  10   0  10
MIO   69  92  69  92 /  20   0   0  10
F10   71  92  71  92 /  20   0  10  10
HHW   69  95  70  94 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07




000
FXUS64 KOUN 310227 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
927 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE FA. THE REST OF THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY BUT IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN SE PARTS OF THE
FA. HOWEVER... WILL KEEP POP/WX FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. CLOUDS IN
THE SE ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA
SO WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE FORECAST. UPDATES OUT SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT... BUT CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION
AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY WITH SOME GUSTS
APPROACHING 20KTS ACROSS THE WEST BY AFTN.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM NEAR A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NEAR WAURIKA TO
COALGATE. CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG...HOWEVER A MID LEVEL
WEAKNESS CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA MAY BE ENOUGH FOR TO
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. THUS...WENT WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE IN THESE LOCATIONS. IF STORMS FORM...THEY WOULD BE SLOW
MOVERS...PRODUCE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS...AND GUSTY WINDS PERHAPS UP
TO 50 TO 60 MPH. ANY CONVECTION WOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

AFTER 10 PM THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING...PATCHY FOG MAY FORM
AGAIN ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER NEAR ALVA...
ENID...AND CHEROKEE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS HIGHER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT.
THUS...ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG. DOUBT FOG WILL BE TOO DENSE
OR WIDESPREAD SINCE NO RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS TODAY.

MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOTTER WITH INCREASING SOUTH
SURFACE WINDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING STORM IN SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA TO ADA LINE WHERE MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND CAPPING IS A BIT
WEAKER...BUT WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...SEASONABLY HOT AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. LOW
STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN TO MAINLY NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  93  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         65  97  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  97  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           62  96  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     66  93  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  94 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/30



000
FXUS64 KOUN 310227 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
927 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE FA. THE REST OF THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY BUT IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN SE PARTS OF THE
FA. HOWEVER... WILL KEEP POP/WX FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. CLOUDS IN
THE SE ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA
SO WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE FORECAST. UPDATES OUT SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT... BUT CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION
AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY WITH SOME GUSTS
APPROACHING 20KTS ACROSS THE WEST BY AFTN.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM NEAR A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NEAR WAURIKA TO
COALGATE. CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG...HOWEVER A MID LEVEL
WEAKNESS CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA MAY BE ENOUGH FOR TO
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. THUS...WENT WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE IN THESE LOCATIONS. IF STORMS FORM...THEY WOULD BE SLOW
MOVERS...PRODUCE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS...AND GUSTY WINDS PERHAPS UP
TO 50 TO 60 MPH. ANY CONVECTION WOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

AFTER 10 PM THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING...PATCHY FOG MAY FORM
AGAIN ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER NEAR ALVA...
ENID...AND CHEROKEE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS HIGHER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT.
THUS...ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG. DOUBT FOG WILL BE TOO DENSE
OR WIDESPREAD SINCE NO RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS TODAY.

MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOTTER WITH INCREASING SOUTH
SURFACE WINDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING STORM IN SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA TO ADA LINE WHERE MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND CAPPING IS A BIT
WEAKER...BUT WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...SEASONABLY HOT AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. LOW
STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN TO MAINLY NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  93  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         65  97  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  97  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           62  96  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     66  93  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  94 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 302310
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
610 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Will include a brief period of vtcs for diminishing tsra across
se OK and wc AR. Otherwise...vfr conditions are expected through
the taf period at all sites.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Atmosphere has become moderately unstable this afternoon with
temperatures warming into the lower 90s across far Southeast
Oklahoma. Weak short wave currently over Western Arkansas will
continue drifting slowly south-southwest. Upper feature, combined
with strong surface heating, will provide at least a limited
chance for widely scattered showers/thunderstorms through the
evening hours across Southeast Oklahoma/Northwest Arkansas.

Little overall change in the weather pattern is expected for
the next few days as elongated upper trough/low, currently southeast
of the region, continues to shift slowly eastward over the Gulf
Coast states towards mid week. Could see an isolated thunderstorm
or two develop over the higher terrain areas of Southeast
Oklahoma/Northwest Arkansas on Monday. Overall coverage appears
too low to mention at this time. Otherwise...warm/humid conditions
will persist into next weekend as upper ridge begins to build into
the Southern Plains with temperatures running a few degrees above
normal.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 302310
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
610 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Will include a brief period of vtcs for diminishing tsra across
se OK and wc AR. Otherwise...vfr conditions are expected through
the taf period at all sites.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Atmosphere has become moderately unstable this afternoon with
temperatures warming into the lower 90s across far Southeast
Oklahoma. Weak short wave currently over Western Arkansas will
continue drifting slowly south-southwest. Upper feature, combined
with strong surface heating, will provide at least a limited
chance for widely scattered showers/thunderstorms through the
evening hours across Southeast Oklahoma/Northwest Arkansas.

Little overall change in the weather pattern is expected for
the next few days as elongated upper trough/low, currently southeast
of the region, continues to shift slowly eastward over the Gulf
Coast states towards mid week. Could see an isolated thunderstorm
or two develop over the higher terrain areas of Southeast
Oklahoma/Northwest Arkansas on Monday. Overall coverage appears
too low to mention at this time. Otherwise...warm/humid conditions
will persist into next weekend as upper ridge begins to build into
the Southern Plains with temperatures running a few degrees above
normal.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23



000
FXUS64 KOUN 302309
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
610 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT... BUT CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION
AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY WITH SOME GUSTS
APPROACHING 20KTS ACROSS THE WEST BY AFTN.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

.DISCUSSION...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM NEAR A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NEAR WAURIKA TO
COALGATE. CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG...HOWEVER A MID LEVEL
WEAKNESS CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA MAY BE ENOUGH FOR TO
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. THUS...WENT WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE IN THESE LOCATIONS. IF STORMS FORM...THEY WOULD BE SLOW
MOVERS...PRODUCE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS...AND GUSTY WINDS PERHAPS UP
TO 50 TO 60 MPH. ANY CONVECTION WOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

AFTER 10 PM THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING...PATCHY FOG MAY FORM
AGAIN ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER NEAR ALVA...
ENID...AND CHEROKEE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS HIGHER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT.
THUS...ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG. DOUBT FOG WILL BE TOO DENSE
OR WIDESPREAD SINCE NO RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS TODAY.

MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOTTER WITH INCREASING SOUTH
SURFACE WINDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING STORM IN SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA TO ADA LINE WHERE MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND CAPPING IS A BIT
WEAKER...BUT WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...SEASONABLY HOT AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. LOW
STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN TO MAINLY NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  93  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         65  97  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  97  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           62  96  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     66  93  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  94 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 302309
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
610 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT... BUT CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION
AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY WITH SOME GUSTS
APPROACHING 20KTS ACROSS THE WEST BY AFTN.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

.DISCUSSION...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM NEAR A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NEAR WAURIKA TO
COALGATE. CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG...HOWEVER A MID LEVEL
WEAKNESS CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA MAY BE ENOUGH FOR TO
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. THUS...WENT WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE IN THESE LOCATIONS. IF STORMS FORM...THEY WOULD BE SLOW
MOVERS...PRODUCE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS...AND GUSTY WINDS PERHAPS UP
TO 50 TO 60 MPH. ANY CONVECTION WOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

AFTER 10 PM THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING...PATCHY FOG MAY FORM
AGAIN ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER NEAR ALVA...
ENID...AND CHEROKEE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS HIGHER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT.
THUS...ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG. DOUBT FOG WILL BE TOO DENSE
OR WIDESPREAD SINCE NO RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS TODAY.

MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOTTER WITH INCREASING SOUTH
SURFACE WINDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING STORM IN SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA TO ADA LINE WHERE MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND CAPPING IS A BIT
WEAKER...BUT WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...SEASONABLY HOT AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. LOW
STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN TO MAINLY NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  93  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         65  97  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  97  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           62  96  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     66  93  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  94 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 302309
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
610 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT... BUT CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION
AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY WITH SOME GUSTS
APPROACHING 20KTS ACROSS THE WEST BY AFTN.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

.DISCUSSION...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM NEAR A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NEAR WAURIKA TO
COALGATE. CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG...HOWEVER A MID LEVEL
WEAKNESS CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA MAY BE ENOUGH FOR TO
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. THUS...WENT WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE IN THESE LOCATIONS. IF STORMS FORM...THEY WOULD BE SLOW
MOVERS...PRODUCE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS...AND GUSTY WINDS PERHAPS UP
TO 50 TO 60 MPH. ANY CONVECTION WOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

AFTER 10 PM THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING...PATCHY FOG MAY FORM
AGAIN ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER NEAR ALVA...
ENID...AND CHEROKEE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS HIGHER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT.
THUS...ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG. DOUBT FOG WILL BE TOO DENSE
OR WIDESPREAD SINCE NO RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS TODAY.

MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOTTER WITH INCREASING SOUTH
SURFACE WINDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING STORM IN SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA TO ADA LINE WHERE MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND CAPPING IS A BIT
WEAKER...BUT WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...SEASONABLY HOT AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. LOW
STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN TO MAINLY NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  93  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         65  97  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  97  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           62  96  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     66  93  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  94 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 302309
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
610 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT... BUT CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION
AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY WITH SOME GUSTS
APPROACHING 20KTS ACROSS THE WEST BY AFTN.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

.DISCUSSION...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM NEAR A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NEAR WAURIKA TO
COALGATE. CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG...HOWEVER A MID LEVEL
WEAKNESS CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA MAY BE ENOUGH FOR TO
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. THUS...WENT WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE IN THESE LOCATIONS. IF STORMS FORM...THEY WOULD BE SLOW
MOVERS...PRODUCE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS...AND GUSTY WINDS PERHAPS UP
TO 50 TO 60 MPH. ANY CONVECTION WOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

AFTER 10 PM THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING...PATCHY FOG MAY FORM
AGAIN ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER NEAR ALVA...
ENID...AND CHEROKEE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS HIGHER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT.
THUS...ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG. DOUBT FOG WILL BE TOO DENSE
OR WIDESPREAD SINCE NO RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS TODAY.

MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOTTER WITH INCREASING SOUTH
SURFACE WINDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING STORM IN SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA TO ADA LINE WHERE MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND CAPPING IS A BIT
WEAKER...BUT WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...SEASONABLY HOT AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. LOW
STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN TO MAINLY NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  93  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         65  97  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  97  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           62  96  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     66  93  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  94 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/17



000
FXUS64 KTSA 301922
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
222 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Atmosphere has become moderately unstable this afternoon with
temperatures warming into the lower 90s across far Southeast
Oklahoma. Weak short wave currently over Western Arkansas will
continue drifting slowly south-southwest. Upper feature, combined
with strong surface heating, will provide at least a limited
chance for widely scattered showers/thunderstorms through the
evening hours across Southeast Oklahoma/Northwest Arkansas.

Little overall change in the weather pattern is expected for
the next few days as elongated upper trough/low, currently southeast
of the region, continues to shift slowly eastward over the Gulf
Coast states towards mid week. Could see an isolated thunderstorm
or two develop over the higher terrain areas of Southeast
Oklahoma/Northwest Arkansas on Monday. Overall coverage appears
too low to mention at this time. Otherwise...warm/humid conditions
will persist into next weekend as upper ridge begins to build into
the Southern Plains with temperatures running a few degrees above
normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  93  72  93 /  10   0   0  10
FSM   72  93  71  94 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   72  93  71  93 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   65  93  68  93 /  10  10   0  10
FYV   68  88  67  90 /  20  10  10  10
BYV   69  88  68  91 /  20  10  10  10
MKO   69  90  69  91 /  20  10   0  10
MIO   69  92  69  92 /  20   0   0  10
F10   71  92  71  92 /  20   0  10  10
HHW   69  95  70  94 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....12




000
FXUS64 KTSA 301922
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
222 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Atmosphere has become moderately unstable this afternoon with
temperatures warming into the lower 90s across far Southeast
Oklahoma. Weak short wave currently over Western Arkansas will
continue drifting slowly south-southwest. Upper feature, combined
with strong surface heating, will provide at least a limited
chance for widely scattered showers/thunderstorms through the
evening hours across Southeast Oklahoma/Northwest Arkansas.

Little overall change in the weather pattern is expected for
the next few days as elongated upper trough/low, currently southeast
of the region, continues to shift slowly eastward over the Gulf
Coast states towards mid week. Could see an isolated thunderstorm
or two develop over the higher terrain areas of Southeast
Oklahoma/Northwest Arkansas on Monday. Overall coverage appears
too low to mention at this time. Otherwise...warm/humid conditions
will persist into next weekend as upper ridge begins to build into
the Southern Plains with temperatures running a few degrees above
normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  93  72  93 /  10   0   0  10
FSM   72  93  71  94 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   72  93  71  93 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   65  93  68  93 /  10  10   0  10
FYV   68  88  67  90 /  20  10  10  10
BYV   69  88  68  91 /  20  10  10  10
MKO   69  90  69  91 /  20  10   0  10
MIO   69  92  69  92 /  20   0   0  10
F10   71  92  71  92 /  20   0  10  10
HHW   69  95  70  94 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....12



000
FXUS64 KOUN 301920
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
220 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM NEAR A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NEAR WAURIKA TO
COALGATE. CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG...HOWEVER A MID LEVEL
WEAKNESS CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA MAY BE ENOUGH FOR TO
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. THUS...WENT WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE IN THESE LOCATIONS. IF STORMS FORM...THEY WOULD BE SLOW
MOVERS...PRODUCE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS...AND GUSTY WINDS PERHAPS UP
TO 50 TO 60 MPH. ANY CONVECTION WOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

AFTER 10 PM THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING...PATCHY FOG MAY FORM
AGAIN ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER NEAR ALVA...
ENID...AND CHEROKEE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS HIGHER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT.
THUS...ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG. DOUBT FOG WILL BE TOO DENSE
OR WIDESPREAD SINCE NO RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS TODAY.

MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOTTER WITH INCREASING SOUTH
SURFACE WINDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING STORM IN SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA TO ADA LINE WHERE MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND CAPPING IS A BIT
WEAKER...BUT WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...SEASONABLY HOT AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. LOW
STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN TO MAINLY NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  93  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         65  97  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  97  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           62  96  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     66  93  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  94 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 301920
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
220 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM NEAR A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NEAR WAURIKA TO
COALGATE. CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG...HOWEVER A MID LEVEL
WEAKNESS CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA MAY BE ENOUGH FOR TO
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. THUS...WENT WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE IN THESE LOCATIONS. IF STORMS FORM...THEY WOULD BE SLOW
MOVERS...PRODUCE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS...AND GUSTY WINDS PERHAPS UP
TO 50 TO 60 MPH. ANY CONVECTION WOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

AFTER 10 PM THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING...PATCHY FOG MAY FORM
AGAIN ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER NEAR ALVA...
ENID...AND CHEROKEE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS HIGHER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT.
THUS...ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG. DOUBT FOG WILL BE TOO DENSE
OR WIDESPREAD SINCE NO RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS TODAY.

MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOTTER WITH INCREASING SOUTH
SURFACE WINDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING STORM IN SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA TO ADA LINE WHERE MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND CAPPING IS A BIT
WEAKER...BUT WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...SEASONABLY HOT AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. LOW
STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN TO MAINLY NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  93  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         65  97  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  97  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           62  96  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     66  93  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  94 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 301920
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
220 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM NEAR A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NEAR WAURIKA TO
COALGATE. CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG...HOWEVER A MID LEVEL
WEAKNESS CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA MAY BE ENOUGH FOR TO
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. THUS...WENT WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE IN THESE LOCATIONS. IF STORMS FORM...THEY WOULD BE SLOW
MOVERS...PRODUCE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS...AND GUSTY WINDS PERHAPS UP
TO 50 TO 60 MPH. ANY CONVECTION WOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

AFTER 10 PM THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING...PATCHY FOG MAY FORM
AGAIN ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER NEAR ALVA...
ENID...AND CHEROKEE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS HIGHER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT.
THUS...ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG. DOUBT FOG WILL BE TOO DENSE
OR WIDESPREAD SINCE NO RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS TODAY.

MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOTTER WITH INCREASING SOUTH
SURFACE WINDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING STORM IN SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA TO ADA LINE WHERE MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND CAPPING IS A BIT
WEAKER...BUT WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...SEASONABLY HOT AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. LOW
STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN TO MAINLY NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  93  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         65  97  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  97  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           62  96  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     66  93  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  94 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 301920
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
220 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM NEAR A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NEAR WAURIKA TO
COALGATE. CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG...HOWEVER A MID LEVEL
WEAKNESS CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA MAY BE ENOUGH FOR TO
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. THUS...WENT WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE IN THESE LOCATIONS. IF STORMS FORM...THEY WOULD BE SLOW
MOVERS...PRODUCE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS...AND GUSTY WINDS PERHAPS UP
TO 50 TO 60 MPH. ANY CONVECTION WOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

AFTER 10 PM THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING...PATCHY FOG MAY FORM
AGAIN ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER NEAR ALVA...
ENID...AND CHEROKEE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS HIGHER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT.
THUS...ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG. DOUBT FOG WILL BE TOO DENSE
OR WIDESPREAD SINCE NO RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS TODAY.

MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOTTER WITH INCREASING SOUTH
SURFACE WINDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING STORM IN SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA TO ADA LINE WHERE MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND CAPPING IS A BIT
WEAKER...BUT WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...SEASONABLY HOT AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. LOW
STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN TO MAINLY NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  93  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         65  97  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  97  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           62  96  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     66  93  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  94 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 301726
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD STAY
BELOW 10 KT AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH 14Z MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING.

PATCHES OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH BR MAY OCCUR 07-15Z
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...BUT DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS DUE
LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPDATE THIS MORNING IS MAINLY TO REMOVE MENTION OF FOG AND
MORNING THUNDER. FOG HAS CLEARED ALL OF THE OBSERVATION SITES. IF
THERE IS SOME LINGERING FOG OVER ALFALFA/GRANT COUNTIES... DO NOT
EXPECT IT TO REMAIN LONG AND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE.
TO THE SOUTH... ONE ISOLATED SHOWER IS DRIFTING ACROSS BRYAN
COUNTY... BUT OTHERWISE HAVE SEEN NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWER FOR THE MORNING HOURS BUT
REDUCE POPS TO LESS THAN 20. STILL SOME MIXED SIGNALS FOR
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL LEAVE THE
LOW AFTERNOON POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
30/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS THROUGH 15Z. WILL ALSO MENTION MVFR FOG OVER
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TERMINALS OF KOKC/KOUN FIRST FEW HOURS OF
FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR FORECAST WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO GOING FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO ADD FOG FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-40. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
POSSIBLY DENSE FOG WILL BE OVER FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NEAREST LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE FOG BUT
JUST NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD ANY DENSE FOG WILL BE. THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MODELS...WRF AND HRRR KEEP A MAJORITY OF DENSE FOG UP
IN KANSAS THROUGH 9 AM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
POINT BUT WE WILL WATCH TRENDS AND ISSUE AS NEEDED. POPS WERE ALSO
CONTINUED THROUGH TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS AND EFFECTIVE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY.

TODAYS TEMPS WERE COOLED A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WELL.
INITIALIZATIONS CAME IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WITH PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL SMOKE THIS
SOUNDS REASONABLE. GFS AND ECM HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND HAVE GENERALLY UNDERFORECAST STRENGTH/PERSISTENCE
OF LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK MOST AREAS AND ALTHOUGH POPS ARE TOO
LOW TO MENTION...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK STORM
ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO POSSIBLE HIGH PLAINS
REMNANTS AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  93  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         67  97  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  71  97  72  96 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           63  96  69  94 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     67  93  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  94 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 301726
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD STAY
BELOW 10 KT AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH 14Z MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING.

PATCHES OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH BR MAY OCCUR 07-15Z
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...BUT DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS DUE
LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPDATE THIS MORNING IS MAINLY TO REMOVE MENTION OF FOG AND
MORNING THUNDER. FOG HAS CLEARED ALL OF THE OBSERVATION SITES. IF
THERE IS SOME LINGERING FOG OVER ALFALFA/GRANT COUNTIES... DO NOT
EXPECT IT TO REMAIN LONG AND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE.
TO THE SOUTH... ONE ISOLATED SHOWER IS DRIFTING ACROSS BRYAN
COUNTY... BUT OTHERWISE HAVE SEEN NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWER FOR THE MORNING HOURS BUT
REDUCE POPS TO LESS THAN 20. STILL SOME MIXED SIGNALS FOR
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL LEAVE THE
LOW AFTERNOON POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
30/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS THROUGH 15Z. WILL ALSO MENTION MVFR FOG OVER
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TERMINALS OF KOKC/KOUN FIRST FEW HOURS OF
FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR FORECAST WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO GOING FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO ADD FOG FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-40. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
POSSIBLY DENSE FOG WILL BE OVER FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NEAREST LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE FOG BUT
JUST NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD ANY DENSE FOG WILL BE. THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MODELS...WRF AND HRRR KEEP A MAJORITY OF DENSE FOG UP
IN KANSAS THROUGH 9 AM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
POINT BUT WE WILL WATCH TRENDS AND ISSUE AS NEEDED. POPS WERE ALSO
CONTINUED THROUGH TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS AND EFFECTIVE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY.

TODAYS TEMPS WERE COOLED A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WELL.
INITIALIZATIONS CAME IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WITH PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL SMOKE THIS
SOUNDS REASONABLE. GFS AND ECM HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND HAVE GENERALLY UNDERFORECAST STRENGTH/PERSISTENCE
OF LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK MOST AREAS AND ALTHOUGH POPS ARE TOO
LOW TO MENTION...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK STORM
ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO POSSIBLE HIGH PLAINS
REMNANTS AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  93  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         67  97  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  71  97  72  96 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           63  96  69  94 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     67  93  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  94 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 301726
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD STAY
BELOW 10 KT AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH 14Z MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING.

PATCHES OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH BR MAY OCCUR 07-15Z
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...BUT DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS DUE
LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPDATE THIS MORNING IS MAINLY TO REMOVE MENTION OF FOG AND
MORNING THUNDER. FOG HAS CLEARED ALL OF THE OBSERVATION SITES. IF
THERE IS SOME LINGERING FOG OVER ALFALFA/GRANT COUNTIES... DO NOT
EXPECT IT TO REMAIN LONG AND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE.
TO THE SOUTH... ONE ISOLATED SHOWER IS DRIFTING ACROSS BRYAN
COUNTY... BUT OTHERWISE HAVE SEEN NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWER FOR THE MORNING HOURS BUT
REDUCE POPS TO LESS THAN 20. STILL SOME MIXED SIGNALS FOR
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL LEAVE THE
LOW AFTERNOON POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
30/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS THROUGH 15Z. WILL ALSO MENTION MVFR FOG OVER
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TERMINALS OF KOKC/KOUN FIRST FEW HOURS OF
FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR FORECAST WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO GOING FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO ADD FOG FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-40. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
POSSIBLY DENSE FOG WILL BE OVER FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NEAREST LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE FOG BUT
JUST NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD ANY DENSE FOG WILL BE. THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MODELS...WRF AND HRRR KEEP A MAJORITY OF DENSE FOG UP
IN KANSAS THROUGH 9 AM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
POINT BUT WE WILL WATCH TRENDS AND ISSUE AS NEEDED. POPS WERE ALSO
CONTINUED THROUGH TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS AND EFFECTIVE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY.

TODAYS TEMPS WERE COOLED A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WELL.
INITIALIZATIONS CAME IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WITH PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL SMOKE THIS
SOUNDS REASONABLE. GFS AND ECM HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND HAVE GENERALLY UNDERFORECAST STRENGTH/PERSISTENCE
OF LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK MOST AREAS AND ALTHOUGH POPS ARE TOO
LOW TO MENTION...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK STORM
ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO POSSIBLE HIGH PLAINS
REMNANTS AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  93  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         67  97  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  71  97  72  96 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           63  96  69  94 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     67  93  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  94 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 301726
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD STAY
BELOW 10 KT AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH 14Z MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING.

PATCHES OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH BR MAY OCCUR 07-15Z
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...BUT DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS DUE
LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPDATE THIS MORNING IS MAINLY TO REMOVE MENTION OF FOG AND
MORNING THUNDER. FOG HAS CLEARED ALL OF THE OBSERVATION SITES. IF
THERE IS SOME LINGERING FOG OVER ALFALFA/GRANT COUNTIES... DO NOT
EXPECT IT TO REMAIN LONG AND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE.
TO THE SOUTH... ONE ISOLATED SHOWER IS DRIFTING ACROSS BRYAN
COUNTY... BUT OTHERWISE HAVE SEEN NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWER FOR THE MORNING HOURS BUT
REDUCE POPS TO LESS THAN 20. STILL SOME MIXED SIGNALS FOR
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL LEAVE THE
LOW AFTERNOON POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
30/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS THROUGH 15Z. WILL ALSO MENTION MVFR FOG OVER
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TERMINALS OF KOKC/KOUN FIRST FEW HOURS OF
FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR FORECAST WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO GOING FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO ADD FOG FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-40. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
POSSIBLY DENSE FOG WILL BE OVER FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NEAREST LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE FOG BUT
JUST NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD ANY DENSE FOG WILL BE. THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MODELS...WRF AND HRRR KEEP A MAJORITY OF DENSE FOG UP
IN KANSAS THROUGH 9 AM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
POINT BUT WE WILL WATCH TRENDS AND ISSUE AS NEEDED. POPS WERE ALSO
CONTINUED THROUGH TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS AND EFFECTIVE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY.

TODAYS TEMPS WERE COOLED A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WELL.
INITIALIZATIONS CAME IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WITH PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL SMOKE THIS
SOUNDS REASONABLE. GFS AND ECM HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND HAVE GENERALLY UNDERFORECAST STRENGTH/PERSISTENCE
OF LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK MOST AREAS AND ALTHOUGH POPS ARE TOO
LOW TO MENTION...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK STORM
ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO POSSIBLE HIGH PLAINS
REMNANTS AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  93  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         67  97  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  71  97  72  96 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           63  96  69  94 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     67  93  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  94 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 301726
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD STAY
BELOW 10 KT AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH 14Z MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING.

PATCHES OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH BR MAY OCCUR 07-15Z
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...BUT DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS DUE
LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPDATE THIS MORNING IS MAINLY TO REMOVE MENTION OF FOG AND
MORNING THUNDER. FOG HAS CLEARED ALL OF THE OBSERVATION SITES. IF
THERE IS SOME LINGERING FOG OVER ALFALFA/GRANT COUNTIES... DO NOT
EXPECT IT TO REMAIN LONG AND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE.
TO THE SOUTH... ONE ISOLATED SHOWER IS DRIFTING ACROSS BRYAN
COUNTY... BUT OTHERWISE HAVE SEEN NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWER FOR THE MORNING HOURS BUT
REDUCE POPS TO LESS THAN 20. STILL SOME MIXED SIGNALS FOR
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL LEAVE THE
LOW AFTERNOON POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
30/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS THROUGH 15Z. WILL ALSO MENTION MVFR FOG OVER
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TERMINALS OF KOKC/KOUN FIRST FEW HOURS OF
FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR FORECAST WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO GOING FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO ADD FOG FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-40. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
POSSIBLY DENSE FOG WILL BE OVER FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NEAREST LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE FOG BUT
JUST NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD ANY DENSE FOG WILL BE. THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MODELS...WRF AND HRRR KEEP A MAJORITY OF DENSE FOG UP
IN KANSAS THROUGH 9 AM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
POINT BUT WE WILL WATCH TRENDS AND ISSUE AS NEEDED. POPS WERE ALSO
CONTINUED THROUGH TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS AND EFFECTIVE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY.

TODAYS TEMPS WERE COOLED A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WELL.
INITIALIZATIONS CAME IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WITH PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL SMOKE THIS
SOUNDS REASONABLE. GFS AND ECM HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND HAVE GENERALLY UNDERFORECAST STRENGTH/PERSISTENCE
OF LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK MOST AREAS AND ALTHOUGH POPS ARE TOO
LOW TO MENTION...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK STORM
ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO POSSIBLE HIGH PLAINS
REMNANTS AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  93  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         67  97  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  71  97  72  96 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           63  96  69  94 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     67  93  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  94 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/17/17




000
FXUS64 KTSA 301709
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1209 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period
as frontal boundary lifts north of the area/dissipates. isolated
shower or storm possible near NW AR sites again today but prob too
low to include in forecast at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A few showers were noted earlier within weakening frontal zone
stretching across SE OK/NW AR, and some additional development
remains possible through this afternoon. forecast basically in
good shape, though have removed pops from the morning period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Patchy light fog nay reduce visibilities to MVFR at some sites
through about 14z. Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail through
the forecast period. Isolated convection will be possible near the
northwest Arkansas sites today...but the chances of any individual
site being impacted are too low to include in the TAF`s.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers/thunderstorms currently east
of boundary..running from south central OK to
southwest MO. Low grade pops that area today.

Broad h500 ridge  from the southern / central
plains to the  northeastern states will be in
control for about the next week. This results
in  long stretch of generally dry weather for
our area.  Isolated showers or thunder may be
generated  over the  higher terrain southeast
OK and northwest Arkansas in daytime heat but
not enough for 20% pop.

all in all-dry with temperatures not far from
seasonal normals.                          gw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  71  93  72 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   91  72  93  71 /  20  30  10  10
MLC   92  72  93  71 /  10  20   0  10
BVO   87  65  93  69 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   86  68  88  66 /  20  30  10  10
BYV   85  69  88  68 /  20  30  10  10
MKO   87  69  90  69 /  10  20  10   0
MIO   86  69  92  69 /  20  20   0   0
F10   89  71  92  71 /  10   0   0  10
HHW   94  69  95  70 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...14



000
FXUS64 KTSA 301709
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1209 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period
as frontal boundary lifts north of the area/dissipates. isolated
shower or storm possible near NW AR sites again today but prob too
low to include in forecast at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A few showers were noted earlier within weakening frontal zone
stretching across SE OK/NW AR, and some additional development
remains possible through this afternoon. forecast basically in
good shape, though have removed pops from the morning period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Patchy light fog nay reduce visibilities to MVFR at some sites
through about 14z. Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail through
the forecast period. Isolated convection will be possible near the
northwest Arkansas sites today...but the chances of any individual
site being impacted are too low to include in the TAF`s.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers/thunderstorms currently east
of boundary..running from south central OK to
southwest MO. Low grade pops that area today.

Broad h500 ridge  from the southern / central
plains to the  northeastern states will be in
control for about the next week. This results
in  long stretch of generally dry weather for
our area.  Isolated showers or thunder may be
generated  over the  higher terrain southeast
OK and northwest Arkansas in daytime heat but
not enough for 20% pop.

all in all-dry with temperatures not far from
seasonal normals.                          gw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  71  93  72 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   91  72  93  71 /  20  30  10  10
MLC   92  72  93  71 /  10  20   0  10
BVO   87  65  93  69 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   86  68  88  66 /  20  30  10  10
BYV   85  69  88  68 /  20  30  10  10
MKO   87  69  90  69 /  10  20  10   0
MIO   86  69  92  69 /  20  20   0   0
F10   89  71  92  71 /  10   0   0  10
HHW   94  69  95  70 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...14




000
FXUS64 KTSA 301709
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1209 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period
as frontal boundary lifts north of the area/dissipates. isolated
shower or storm possible near NW AR sites again today but prob too
low to include in forecast at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A few showers were noted earlier within weakening frontal zone
stretching across SE OK/NW AR, and some additional development
remains possible through this afternoon. forecast basically in
good shape, though have removed pops from the morning period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Patchy light fog nay reduce visibilities to MVFR at some sites
through about 14z. Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail through
the forecast period. Isolated convection will be possible near the
northwest Arkansas sites today...but the chances of any individual
site being impacted are too low to include in the TAF`s.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers/thunderstorms currently east
of boundary..running from south central OK to
southwest MO. Low grade pops that area today.

Broad h500 ridge  from the southern / central
plains to the  northeastern states will be in
control for about the next week. This results
in  long stretch of generally dry weather for
our area.  Isolated showers or thunder may be
generated  over the  higher terrain southeast
OK and northwest Arkansas in daytime heat but
not enough for 20% pop.

all in all-dry with temperatures not far from
seasonal normals.                          gw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  71  93  72 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   91  72  93  71 /  20  30  10  10
MLC   92  72  93  71 /  10  20   0  10
BVO   87  65  93  69 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   86  68  88  66 /  20  30  10  10
BYV   85  69  88  68 /  20  30  10  10
MKO   87  69  90  69 /  10  20  10   0
MIO   86  69  92  69 /  20  20   0   0
F10   89  71  92  71 /  10   0   0  10
HHW   94  69  95  70 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...14




000
FXUS64 KTSA 301709
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1209 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period
as frontal boundary lifts north of the area/dissipates. isolated
shower or storm possible near NW AR sites again today but prob too
low to include in forecast at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A few showers were noted earlier within weakening frontal zone
stretching across SE OK/NW AR, and some additional development
remains possible through this afternoon. forecast basically in
good shape, though have removed pops from the morning period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Patchy light fog nay reduce visibilities to MVFR at some sites
through about 14z. Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail through
the forecast period. Isolated convection will be possible near the
northwest Arkansas sites today...but the chances of any individual
site being impacted are too low to include in the TAF`s.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers/thunderstorms currently east
of boundary..running from south central OK to
southwest MO. Low grade pops that area today.

Broad h500 ridge  from the southern / central
plains to the  northeastern states will be in
control for about the next week. This results
in  long stretch of generally dry weather for
our area.  Isolated showers or thunder may be
generated  over the  higher terrain southeast
OK and northwest Arkansas in daytime heat but
not enough for 20% pop.

all in all-dry with temperatures not far from
seasonal normals.                          gw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  71  93  72 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   91  72  93  71 /  20  30  10  10
MLC   92  72  93  71 /  10  20   0  10
BVO   87  65  93  69 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   86  68  88  66 /  20  30  10  10
BYV   85  69  88  68 /  20  30  10  10
MKO   87  69  90  69 /  10  20  10   0
MIO   86  69  92  69 /  20  20   0   0
F10   89  71  92  71 /  10   0   0  10
HHW   94  69  95  70 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...14



000
FXUS64 KOUN 301613
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1113 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPDATE THIS MORNING IS MAINLY TO REMOVE MENTION OF FOG AND
MORNING THUNDER. FOG HAS CLEARED ALL OF THE OBSERVATION SITES. IF
THERE IS SOME LINGERING FOG OVER ALFALFA/GRANT COUNTIES... DO NOT
EXPECT IT TO REMAIN LONG AND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE.
TO THE SOUTH... ONE ISOLATED SHOWER IS DRIFTING ACROSS BRYAN
COUNTY... BUT OTHERWISE HAVE SEEN NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWER FOR THE MORNING HOURS BUT
REDUCE POPS TO LESS THAN 20. STILL SOME MIXED SIGNALS FOR
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL LEAVE THE
LOW AFTERNOON POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
30/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS THROUGH 15Z. WILL ALSO MENTION MVFR FOG OVER
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TERMINALS OF KOKC/KOUN FIRST FEW HOURS OF
FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR FORECAST WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO GOING FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO ADD FOG FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-40. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
POSSIBLY DENSE FOG WILL BE OVER FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NEAREST LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE FOG BUT
JUST NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD ANY DENSE FOG WILL BE. THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MODELS...WRF AND HRRR KEEP A MAJORITY OF DENSE FOG UP
IN KANSAS THROUGH 9 AM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
POINT BUT WE WILL WATCH TRENDS AND ISSUE AS NEEDED. POPS WERE ALSO
CONTINUED THROUGH TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS AND EFFECTIVE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY.

TODAYS TEMPS WERE COOLED A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WELL.
INITIALIZATIONS CAME IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WITH PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL SMOKE THIS
SOUNDS REASONABLE. GFS AND ECM HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND HAVE GENERALLY UNDERFORECAST STRENGTH/PERSISTENCE
OF LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK MOST AREAS AND ALTHOUGH POPS ARE TOO
LOW TO MENTION...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK STORM
ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO POSSIBLE HIGH PLAINS
REMNANTS AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  68  93  70 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         92  67  97  71 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  71  97  72 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           91  63  96  69 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     88  67  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  71 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99



000
FXUS64 KOUN 301613
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1113 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPDATE THIS MORNING IS MAINLY TO REMOVE MENTION OF FOG AND
MORNING THUNDER. FOG HAS CLEARED ALL OF THE OBSERVATION SITES. IF
THERE IS SOME LINGERING FOG OVER ALFALFA/GRANT COUNTIES... DO NOT
EXPECT IT TO REMAIN LONG AND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE.
TO THE SOUTH... ONE ISOLATED SHOWER IS DRIFTING ACROSS BRYAN
COUNTY... BUT OTHERWISE HAVE SEEN NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWER FOR THE MORNING HOURS BUT
REDUCE POPS TO LESS THAN 20. STILL SOME MIXED SIGNALS FOR
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL LEAVE THE
LOW AFTERNOON POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
30/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS THROUGH 15Z. WILL ALSO MENTION MVFR FOG OVER
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TERMINALS OF KOKC/KOUN FIRST FEW HOURS OF
FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR FORECAST WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO GOING FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO ADD FOG FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-40. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
POSSIBLY DENSE FOG WILL BE OVER FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NEAREST LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE FOG BUT
JUST NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD ANY DENSE FOG WILL BE. THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MODELS...WRF AND HRRR KEEP A MAJORITY OF DENSE FOG UP
IN KANSAS THROUGH 9 AM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
POINT BUT WE WILL WATCH TRENDS AND ISSUE AS NEEDED. POPS WERE ALSO
CONTINUED THROUGH TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS AND EFFECTIVE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY.

TODAYS TEMPS WERE COOLED A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WELL.
INITIALIZATIONS CAME IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WITH PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL SMOKE THIS
SOUNDS REASONABLE. GFS AND ECM HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND HAVE GENERALLY UNDERFORECAST STRENGTH/PERSISTENCE
OF LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK MOST AREAS AND ALTHOUGH POPS ARE TOO
LOW TO MENTION...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK STORM
ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO POSSIBLE HIGH PLAINS
REMNANTS AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  68  93  70 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         92  67  97  71 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  71  97  72 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           91  63  96  69 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     88  67  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  71 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99




000
FXUS64 KTSA 301535
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1035 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A few showers were noted earlier within weakening frontal zone
stretching across SE OK/NW AR, and some additional development
remains possible through this afternoon. forecast basically in
good shape, though have removed pops from the morning period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Patchy light fog nay reduce visibilities to MVFR at some sites
through about 14z. Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail through
the forecast period. Isolated convection will be possible near the
northwest Arkansas sites today...but the chances of any individual
site being impacted are too low to include in the TAF`s.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers/thunderstorms currently east
of boundary..running from south central OK to
southwest MO. Low grade pops that area today.

Broad h500 ridge  from the southern / central
plains to the  northeastern states will be in
control for about the next week. This results
in  long stretch of generally dry weather for
our area.  Isolated showers or thunder may be
generated  over the  higher terrain southeast
OK and northwest Arkansas in daytime heat but
not enough for 20% pop.

all in all-dry with temperatures not far from
seasonal normals.                          gw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  72  92  73 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   91  70  92  70 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   92  70  92  71 /  10  10   0   0
BVO   87  65  91  69 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   86  65  88  67 /  20  10  10  10
BYV   85  65  88  66 /  20  10  10  10
MKO   87  69  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   86  67  90  69 /  20  10   0   0
F10   89  69  91  70 /  10  10   0  10
HHW   94  70  94  70 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....12




000
FXUS64 KTSA 301535
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1035 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A few showers were noted earlier within weakening frontal zone
stretching across SE OK/NW AR, and some additional development
remains possible through this afternoon. forecast basically in
good shape, though have removed pops from the morning period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Patchy light fog nay reduce visibilities to MVFR at some sites
through about 14z. Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail through
the forecast period. Isolated convection will be possible near the
northwest Arkansas sites today...but the chances of any individual
site being impacted are too low to include in the TAF`s.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers/thunderstorms currently east
of boundary..running from south central OK to
southwest MO. Low grade pops that area today.

Broad h500 ridge  from the southern / central
plains to the  northeastern states will be in
control for about the next week. This results
in  long stretch of generally dry weather for
our area.  Isolated showers or thunder may be
generated  over the  higher terrain southeast
OK and northwest Arkansas in daytime heat but
not enough for 20% pop.

all in all-dry with temperatures not far from
seasonal normals.                          gw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  72  92  73 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   91  70  92  70 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   92  70  92  71 /  10  10   0   0
BVO   87  65  91  69 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   86  65  88  67 /  20  10  10  10
BYV   85  65  88  66 /  20  10  10  10
MKO   87  69  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   86  67  90  69 /  20  10   0   0
F10   89  69  91  70 /  10  10   0  10
HHW   94  70  94  70 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....12



000
FXUS64 KOUN 301146 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
646 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
30/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS THROUGH 15Z. WILL ALSO MENTION MVFR FOG OVER
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TERMINALS OF KOKC/KOUN FIRST FEW HOURS OF
FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR FORECAST WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO GOING FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO ADD FOG FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-40. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
POSSIBLY DENSE FOG WILL BE OVER FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NEAREST LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE FOG BUT
JUST NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD ANY DENSE FOG WILL BE. THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MODELS...WRF AND HRRR KEEP A MAJORITY OF DENSE FOG UP
IN KANSAS THROUGH 9 AM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
POINT BUT WE WILL WATCH TRENDS AND ISSUE AS NEEDED. POPS WERE ALSO
CONTINUED THROUGH TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS AND EFFECTIVE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY.

TODAYS TEMPS WERE COOLED A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WELL.
INITIALIZATIONS CAME IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WITH PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL SMOKE THIS
SOUNDS REASONABLE. GFS AND ECM HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND HAVE GENERALLY UNDERFORECAST STRENGTH/PERSISTENCE
OF LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK MOST AREAS AND ALTHOUGH POPS ARE TOO
LOW TO MENTION...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK STORM
ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO POSSIBLE HIGH PLAINS
REMNANTS AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  68  93  70 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         92  67  97  71 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  71  97  72 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           91  63  96  69 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     88  67  93  70 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  71 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 301146 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
646 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
30/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS THROUGH 15Z. WILL ALSO MENTION MVFR FOG OVER
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TERMINALS OF KOKC/KOUN FIRST FEW HOURS OF
FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR FORECAST WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO GOING FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO ADD FOG FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-40. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
POSSIBLY DENSE FOG WILL BE OVER FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NEAREST LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE FOG BUT
JUST NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD ANY DENSE FOG WILL BE. THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MODELS...WRF AND HRRR KEEP A MAJORITY OF DENSE FOG UP
IN KANSAS THROUGH 9 AM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
POINT BUT WE WILL WATCH TRENDS AND ISSUE AS NEEDED. POPS WERE ALSO
CONTINUED THROUGH TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS AND EFFECTIVE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY.

TODAYS TEMPS WERE COOLED A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WELL.
INITIALIZATIONS CAME IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WITH PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL SMOKE THIS
SOUNDS REASONABLE. GFS AND ECM HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND HAVE GENERALLY UNDERFORECAST STRENGTH/PERSISTENCE
OF LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK MOST AREAS AND ALTHOUGH POPS ARE TOO
LOW TO MENTION...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK STORM
ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO POSSIBLE HIGH PLAINS
REMNANTS AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  68  93  70 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         92  67  97  71 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  71  97  72 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           91  63  96  69 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     88  67  93  70 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  71 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 301146 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
646 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
30/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS THROUGH 15Z. WILL ALSO MENTION MVFR FOG OVER
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TERMINALS OF KOKC/KOUN FIRST FEW HOURS OF
FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR FORECAST WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO GOING FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO ADD FOG FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-40. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
POSSIBLY DENSE FOG WILL BE OVER FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NEAREST LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE FOG BUT
JUST NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD ANY DENSE FOG WILL BE. THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MODELS...WRF AND HRRR KEEP A MAJORITY OF DENSE FOG UP
IN KANSAS THROUGH 9 AM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
POINT BUT WE WILL WATCH TRENDS AND ISSUE AS NEEDED. POPS WERE ALSO
CONTINUED THROUGH TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS AND EFFECTIVE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY.

TODAYS TEMPS WERE COOLED A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WELL.
INITIALIZATIONS CAME IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WITH PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL SMOKE THIS
SOUNDS REASONABLE. GFS AND ECM HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND HAVE GENERALLY UNDERFORECAST STRENGTH/PERSISTENCE
OF LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK MOST AREAS AND ALTHOUGH POPS ARE TOO
LOW TO MENTION...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK STORM
ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO POSSIBLE HIGH PLAINS
REMNANTS AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  68  93  70 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         92  67  97  71 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  71  97  72 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           91  63  96  69 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     88  67  93  70 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  71 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11/11




000
FXUS64 KTSA 301138
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
638 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Patchy light fog nay reduce visibilities to MVFR at some sites
through about 14z. Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail through
the forecast period. Isolated convection will be possible near the
northwest Arkansas sites today...but the chances of any individual
site being impacted are too low to include in the TAF`s.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers/thunderstorms currently east
of boundary..running from south central OK to
southwest MO. Low grade pops that area today.

Broad h500 ridge  from the southern / central
plains to the  northeastern states will be in
control for about the next week. This results
in  long stretch of generally dry weather for
our area.  Isolated showers or thunder may be
generated  over the  higher terrain southeast
OK and northwest Arkansas in daytime heat but
not enough for 20% pop.

all in all-dry with temperatures not far from
seasonal normals.                          gw

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05



000
FXUS64 KTSA 301138
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
638 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Patchy light fog nay reduce visibilities to MVFR at some sites
through about 14z. Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail through
the forecast period. Isolated convection will be possible near the
northwest Arkansas sites today...but the chances of any individual
site being impacted are too low to include in the TAF`s.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers/thunderstorms currently east
of boundary..running from south central OK to
southwest MO. Low grade pops that area today.

Broad h500 ridge  from the southern / central
plains to the  northeastern states will be in
control for about the next week. This results
in  long stretch of generally dry weather for
our area.  Isolated showers or thunder may be
generated  over the  higher terrain southeast
OK and northwest Arkansas in daytime heat but
not enough for 20% pop.

all in all-dry with temperatures not far from
seasonal normals.                          gw

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05




000
FXUS64 KOUN 300906
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
406 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO GOING FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO ADD FOG FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-40. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
POSSIBLY DENSE FOG WILL BE OVER FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NEAREST LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE FOG BUT
JUST NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD ANY DENSE FOG WILL BE. THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MODELS...WRF AND HRRR KEEP A MAJORITY OF DENSE FOG UP
IN KANSAS THROUGH 9 AM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
POINT BUT WE WILL WATCH TRENDS AND ISSUE AS NEEDED. POPS WERE ALSO
CONTINUED THROUGH TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS AND EFFECTIVE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY.

TODAYS TEMPS WERE COOLED A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WELL.
INITIALIZATIONS CAME IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WITH PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL SMOKE THIS
SOUNDS REASONABLE. GFS AND ECM HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND HAVE GENERALLY UNDERFORECAST STRENGTH/PERSISTENCE
OF LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK MOST AREAS AND ALTHOUGH POPS ARE TOO
LOW TO MENTION...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK STORM
ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO POSSIBLE HIGH PLAINS
REMNANTS AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  68  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         92  67  97  71 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  71  97  72 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           91  63  96  69 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     88  67  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  71 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 300906
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
406 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO GOING FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO ADD FOG FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-40. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
POSSIBLY DENSE FOG WILL BE OVER FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NEAREST LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE FOG BUT
JUST NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD ANY DENSE FOG WILL BE. THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MODELS...WRF AND HRRR KEEP A MAJORITY OF DENSE FOG UP
IN KANSAS THROUGH 9 AM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
POINT BUT WE WILL WATCH TRENDS AND ISSUE AS NEEDED. POPS WERE ALSO
CONTINUED THROUGH TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS AND EFFECTIVE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY.

TODAYS TEMPS WERE COOLED A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WELL.
INITIALIZATIONS CAME IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WITH PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL SMOKE THIS
SOUNDS REASONABLE. GFS AND ECM HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND HAVE GENERALLY UNDERFORECAST STRENGTH/PERSISTENCE
OF LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK MOST AREAS AND ALTHOUGH POPS ARE TOO
LOW TO MENTION...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK STORM
ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO POSSIBLE HIGH PLAINS
REMNANTS AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  68  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         92  67  97  71 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  71  97  72 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           91  63  96  69 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     88  67  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  71 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 300906
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
406 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO GOING FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO ADD FOG FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-40. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
POSSIBLY DENSE FOG WILL BE OVER FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NEAREST LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE FOG BUT
JUST NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD ANY DENSE FOG WILL BE. THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MODELS...WRF AND HRRR KEEP A MAJORITY OF DENSE FOG UP
IN KANSAS THROUGH 9 AM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
POINT BUT WE WILL WATCH TRENDS AND ISSUE AS NEEDED. POPS WERE ALSO
CONTINUED THROUGH TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS AND EFFECTIVE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY.

TODAYS TEMPS WERE COOLED A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WELL.
INITIALIZATIONS CAME IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WITH PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL SMOKE THIS
SOUNDS REASONABLE. GFS AND ECM HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND HAVE GENERALLY UNDERFORECAST STRENGTH/PERSISTENCE
OF LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK MOST AREAS AND ALTHOUGH POPS ARE TOO
LOW TO MENTION...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK STORM
ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO POSSIBLE HIGH PLAINS
REMNANTS AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  68  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         92  67  97  71 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  71  97  72 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           91  63  96  69 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     88  67  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  71 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 300906
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
406 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO GOING FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO ADD FOG FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-40. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
POSSIBLY DENSE FOG WILL BE OVER FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NEAREST LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE FOG BUT
JUST NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD ANY DENSE FOG WILL BE. THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MODELS...WRF AND HRRR KEEP A MAJORITY OF DENSE FOG UP
IN KANSAS THROUGH 9 AM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
POINT BUT WE WILL WATCH TRENDS AND ISSUE AS NEEDED. POPS WERE ALSO
CONTINUED THROUGH TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS AND EFFECTIVE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY.

TODAYS TEMPS WERE COOLED A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WELL.
INITIALIZATIONS CAME IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WITH PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL SMOKE THIS
SOUNDS REASONABLE. GFS AND ECM HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND HAVE GENERALLY UNDERFORECAST STRENGTH/PERSISTENCE
OF LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK MOST AREAS AND ALTHOUGH POPS ARE TOO
LOW TO MENTION...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK STORM
ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO POSSIBLE HIGH PLAINS
REMNANTS AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  68  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         92  67  97  71 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  71  97  72 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           91  63  96  69 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     88  67  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  71 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11




000
FXUS64 KTSA 300905
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
405 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers/thunderstorms currently east
of boundary..running from south central OK to
southwest MO. Low grade pops that area today.

Broad h500 ridge  from the southern / central
plains to the  northeastern states will be in
control for about the next week. This results
in  long stretch of generally dry weather for
our area.  Isolated showers or thunder may be
generated  over the  higher terrain southeast
OK and northwest Arkansas in daytime heat but
not enough for 20% pop.

all in all-dry with temperatures not far from
seasonal normals.                          gw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  72  92  73 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   91  70  92  70 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   92  70  92  71 /  10  10   0   0
BVO   87  65  91  69 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   86  65  88  67 /  20  10  10  10
BYV   85  65  88  66 /  20  10  10  10
MKO   87  69  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   86  67  90  69 /  20  10   0   0
F10   89  69  91  70 /  10  10   0  10
HHW   94  70  94  70 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21



000
FXUS64 KTSA 300905
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
405 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers/thunderstorms currently east
of boundary..running from south central OK to
southwest MO. Low grade pops that area today.

Broad h500 ridge  from the southern / central
plains to the  northeastern states will be in
control for about the next week. This results
in  long stretch of generally dry weather for
our area.  Isolated showers or thunder may be
generated  over the  higher terrain southeast
OK and northwest Arkansas in daytime heat but
not enough for 20% pop.

all in all-dry with temperatures not far from
seasonal normals.                          gw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  72  92  73 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   91  70  92  70 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   92  70  92  71 /  10  10   0   0
BVO   87  65  91  69 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   86  65  88  67 /  20  10  10  10
BYV   85  65  88  66 /  20  10  10  10
MKO   87  69  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   86  67  90  69 /  20  10   0   0
F10   89  69  91  70 /  10  10   0  10
HHW   94  70  94  70 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21




000
FXUS64 KTSA 300905
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
405 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers/thunderstorms currently east
of boundary..running from south central OK to
southwest MO. Low grade pops that area today.

Broad h500 ridge  from the southern / central
plains to the  northeastern states will be in
control for about the next week. This results
in  long stretch of generally dry weather for
our area.  Isolated showers or thunder may be
generated  over the  higher terrain southeast
OK and northwest Arkansas in daytime heat but
not enough for 20% pop.

all in all-dry with temperatures not far from
seasonal normals.                          gw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  72  92  73 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   91  70  92  70 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   92  70  92  71 /  10  10   0   0
BVO   87  65  91  69 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   86  65  88  67 /  20  10  10  10
BYV   85  65  88  66 /  20  10  10  10
MKO   87  69  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   86  67  90  69 /  20  10   0   0
F10   89  69  91  70 /  10  10   0  10
HHW   94  70  94  70 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21




000
FXUS64 KTSA 300905
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
405 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers/thunderstorms currently east
of boundary..running from south central OK to
southwest MO. Low grade pops that area today.

Broad h500 ridge  from the southern / central
plains to the  northeastern states will be in
control for about the next week. This results
in  long stretch of generally dry weather for
our area.  Isolated showers or thunder may be
generated  over the  higher terrain southeast
OK and northwest Arkansas in daytime heat but
not enough for 20% pop.

all in all-dry with temperatures not far from
seasonal normals.                          gw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  72  92  73 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   91  70  92  70 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   92  70  92  71 /  10  10   0   0
BVO   87  65  91  69 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   86  65  88  67 /  20  10  10  10
BYV   85  65  88  66 /  20  10  10  10
MKO   87  69  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   86  67  90  69 /  20  10   0   0
F10   89  69  91  70 /  10  10   0  10
HHW   94  70  94  70 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21




000
FXUS64 KTSA 300905
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
405 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers/thunderstorms currently east
of boundary..running from south central OK to
southwest MO. Low grade pops that area today.

Broad h500 ridge  from the southern / central
plains to the  northeastern states will be in
control for about the next week. This results
in  long stretch of generally dry weather for
our area.  Isolated showers or thunder may be
generated  over the  higher terrain southeast
OK and northwest Arkansas in daytime heat but
not enough for 20% pop.

all in all-dry with temperatures not far from
seasonal normals.                          gw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  72  92  73 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   91  70  92  70 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   92  70  92  71 /  10  10   0   0
BVO   87  65  91  69 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   86  65  88  67 /  20  10  10  10
BYV   85  65  88  66 /  20  10  10  10
MKO   87  69  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   86  67  90  69 /  20  10   0   0
F10   89  69  91  70 /  10  10   0  10
HHW   94  70  94  70 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21




000
FXUS64 KTSA 300905
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
405 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers/thunderstorms currently east
of boundary..running from south central OK to
southwest MO. Low grade pops that area today.

Broad h500 ridge  from the southern / central
plains to the  northeastern states will be in
control for about the next week. This results
in  long stretch of generally dry weather for
our area.  Isolated showers or thunder may be
generated  over the  higher terrain southeast
OK and northwest Arkansas in daytime heat but
not enough for 20% pop.

all in all-dry with temperatures not far from
seasonal normals.                          gw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  72  92  73 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   91  70  92  70 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   92  70  92  71 /  10  10   0   0
BVO   87  65  91  69 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   86  65  88  67 /  20  10  10  10
BYV   85  65  88  66 /  20  10  10  10
MKO   87  69  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   86  67  90  69 /  20  10   0   0
F10   89  69  91  70 /  10  10   0  10
HHW   94  70  94  70 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21




000
FXUS64 KTSA 300434
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1134 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Scattered convection will continue through the early morning hours
from SE OK into NW AR with brief aviation impacts possible. Patchy
fog may also develop from NE OK into far NW AR and possibly mixing
into MVFR ceilings after sunrise. Thereafter VFR conditions will
prevail with isolated afternoon convection possible primarily over
western AR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Weak surface boundary noted across east central Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas this evening. Additional showers and
thunderstorms have developed in the vicinity of the boundary this
evening...and have adjusted pops slightly. Will keep low chance
across northwest Arkansas as local model guidance and short term
trends suggest slightly higher coverage across those locations.
Temperatures tracking towards overnight lows...so little
adjustment was required to that element.

Updated ZFP/PFM/ AFM already sent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  88  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   70  91  71  93 /  20  20  20  10
MLC   69  91  71  94 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   62  88  64  93 /  10  10  10   0
FYV   66  86  66  89 /  30  20  10  10
BYV   67  87  68  88 /  30  20  20  10
MKO   67  87  68  91 /  20  10  10  10
MIO   66  86  67  90 /  10  10  10  10
F10   67  88  70  93 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   71  94  70  94 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07



000
FXUS64 KTSA 300434
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1134 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Scattered convection will continue through the early morning hours
from SE OK into NW AR with brief aviation impacts possible. Patchy
fog may also develop from NE OK into far NW AR and possibly mixing
into MVFR ceilings after sunrise. Thereafter VFR conditions will
prevail with isolated afternoon convection possible primarily over
western AR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Weak surface boundary noted across east central Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas this evening. Additional showers and
thunderstorms have developed in the vicinity of the boundary this
evening...and have adjusted pops slightly. Will keep low chance
across northwest Arkansas as local model guidance and short term
trends suggest slightly higher coverage across those locations.
Temperatures tracking towards overnight lows...so little
adjustment was required to that element.

Updated ZFP/PFM/ AFM already sent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  88  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   70  91  71  93 /  20  20  20  10
MLC   69  91  71  94 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   62  88  64  93 /  10  10  10   0
FYV   66  86  66  89 /  30  20  10  10
BYV   67  87  68  88 /  30  20  20  10
MKO   67  87  68  91 /  20  10  10  10
MIO   66  86  67  90 /  10  10  10  10
F10   67  88  70  93 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   71  94  70  94 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07




000
FXUS64 KTSA 300240
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
940 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Weak surface boundary noted across east central Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas this evening. Additional showers and
thunderstorms have developed in the vicinity of the boundary this
evening...and have adjusted pops slightly. Will keep low chance
across northwest Arkansas as local model guidance and short term
trends suggest slightly higher coverage across those locations.
Temperatures tracking towards overnight lows...so little
adjustment was required to that element.

Updated ZFP/PFM/ AFM already sent.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 300240
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
940 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Weak surface boundary noted across east central Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas this evening. Additional showers and
thunderstorms have developed in the vicinity of the boundary this
evening...and have adjusted pops slightly. Will keep low chance
across northwest Arkansas as local model guidance and short term
trends suggest slightly higher coverage across those locations.
Temperatures tracking towards overnight lows...so little
adjustment was required to that element.

Updated ZFP/PFM/ AFM already sent.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 300240
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
940 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Weak surface boundary noted across east central Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas this evening. Additional showers and
thunderstorms have developed in the vicinity of the boundary this
evening...and have adjusted pops slightly. Will keep low chance
across northwest Arkansas as local model guidance and short term
trends suggest slightly higher coverage across those locations.
Temperatures tracking towards overnight lows...so little
adjustment was required to that element.

Updated ZFP/PFM/ AFM already sent.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23



000
FXUS64 KOUN 300212 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
912 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
SOME SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE REST OF THIS EVENING INTO
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONT FOR SE PARTS OF THE FA FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND ADDED
POPS/WX FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND AFTER 6Z PERIOD. ADJUSTED
SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FA. OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. UPDATES OUT
SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE OF THE DAY.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...THINK THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY...SURFACE HEATING...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEAK
COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS NEAR AND SOUTH OF A QUANAH
TEXAS TO WAURIKA TO ATOKA LINE. SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY...
THOUGH THEY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCAL DOWNPOURS AS THEY
WILL BE SLOW MOVERS. KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCE IN THESE AREAS. STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE AT BEST AND MAY NOT OCCUR AT ALL AS
CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG.

AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING
SKIES ARE EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA...MAINLY EAST OF AN ALVA TO WAURIKA LINE...BUT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS A MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL
GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE TOO LOW TO
MENTION.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  91  67  95 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         63  95  66  98 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  98  71  99 /  20  10   0   0
GAGE OK           57  93  62  97 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     63  89  66  93 /   0  10   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  96 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/30




000
FXUS64 KOUN 300212 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
912 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
SOME SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE REST OF THIS EVENING INTO
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONT FOR SE PARTS OF THE FA FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND ADDED
POPS/WX FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND AFTER 6Z PERIOD. ADJUSTED
SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FA. OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. UPDATES OUT
SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE OF THE DAY.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...THINK THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY...SURFACE HEATING...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEAK
COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS NEAR AND SOUTH OF A QUANAH
TEXAS TO WAURIKA TO ATOKA LINE. SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY...
THOUGH THEY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCAL DOWNPOURS AS THEY
WILL BE SLOW MOVERS. KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCE IN THESE AREAS. STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE AT BEST AND MAY NOT OCCUR AT ALL AS
CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG.

AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING
SKIES ARE EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA...MAINLY EAST OF AN ALVA TO WAURIKA LINE...BUT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS A MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL
GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE TOO LOW TO
MENTION.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  91  67  95 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         63  95  66  98 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  98  71  99 /  20  10   0   0
GAGE OK           57  93  62  97 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     63  89  66  93 /   0  10   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  96 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/30




000
FXUS64 KOUN 300212 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
912 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
SOME SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE REST OF THIS EVENING INTO
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONT FOR SE PARTS OF THE FA FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND ADDED
POPS/WX FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND AFTER 6Z PERIOD. ADJUSTED
SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FA. OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. UPDATES OUT
SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE OF THE DAY.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...THINK THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY...SURFACE HEATING...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEAK
COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS NEAR AND SOUTH OF A QUANAH
TEXAS TO WAURIKA TO ATOKA LINE. SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY...
THOUGH THEY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCAL DOWNPOURS AS THEY
WILL BE SLOW MOVERS. KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCE IN THESE AREAS. STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE AT BEST AND MAY NOT OCCUR AT ALL AS
CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG.

AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING
SKIES ARE EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA...MAINLY EAST OF AN ALVA TO WAURIKA LINE...BUT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS A MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL
GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE TOO LOW TO
MENTION.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  91  67  95 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         63  95  66  98 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  98  71  99 /  20  10   0   0
GAGE OK           57  93  62  97 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     63  89  66  93 /   0  10   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  96 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/30




000
FXUS64 KOUN 300212 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
912 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
SOME SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE REST OF THIS EVENING INTO
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONT FOR SE PARTS OF THE FA FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND ADDED
POPS/WX FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND AFTER 6Z PERIOD. ADJUSTED
SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FA. OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. UPDATES OUT
SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE OF THE DAY.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...THINK THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY...SURFACE HEATING...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEAK
COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS NEAR AND SOUTH OF A QUANAH
TEXAS TO WAURIKA TO ATOKA LINE. SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY...
THOUGH THEY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCAL DOWNPOURS AS THEY
WILL BE SLOW MOVERS. KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCE IN THESE AREAS. STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE AT BEST AND MAY NOT OCCUR AT ALL AS
CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG.

AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING
SKIES ARE EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA...MAINLY EAST OF AN ALVA TO WAURIKA LINE...BUT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS A MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL
GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE TOO LOW TO
MENTION.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  91  67  95 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         63  95  66  98 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  98  71  99 /  20  10   0   0
GAGE OK           57  93  62  97 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     63  89  66  93 /   0  10   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  96 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 292331
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
631 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Convection has recently developed along the stationary frontal
boundary however eventual coverage is expected to remain limited
prior to dissipation later this evening. Otherwise...patchy fog is
possible again tonight primarily across NE OK and far NW AR with
periodic MVFR ceilings after sunrise.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A weak cool front is currently pushing through Northeast Oklahoma
this afternoon and was located just south of Interstate 44. Slightly
cooler air has moved in behind the front primarily due to the
increased cloud cover.

A few widely scattered showers/thunderstorms will be possible
across Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas, mainly this
afternoon/evening, as the front stalls tonight. Cutoff low will
begin to develop over the Arklatx region into the day Sunday. The
lingering boundary, coupled with strong surface heating, could
allow a few isolated thunderstorms to develop over Northwest
Arkansas during the afternoon.

Little change is expected into the early/middle part of next week
with temperatures running slightly above normal for this time of
year. The upper low will slowly migrate eastward with time as
ridging aloft begins to build back over the Central/Southern
Plains. Precipitation changes will likely remain minimal at best
for the remainder of the work week into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  88  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   69  91  71  93 /  30  20  20  10
MLC   68  91  71  94 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   61  88  64  93 /  10  10  10   0
FYV   65  86  66  89 /  30  20  10  10
BYV   66  87  68  88 /  30  20  20  10
MKO   66  87  68  91 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   65  86  67  90 /  10  10  10  10
F10   66  88  70  93 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   70  94  70  94 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07




000
FXUS64 KTSA 292331
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
631 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Convection has recently developed along the stationary frontal
boundary however eventual coverage is expected to remain limited
prior to dissipation later this evening. Otherwise...patchy fog is
possible again tonight primarily across NE OK and far NW AR with
periodic MVFR ceilings after sunrise.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A weak cool front is currently pushing through Northeast Oklahoma
this afternoon and was located just south of Interstate 44. Slightly
cooler air has moved in behind the front primarily due to the
increased cloud cover.

A few widely scattered showers/thunderstorms will be possible
across Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas, mainly this
afternoon/evening, as the front stalls tonight. Cutoff low will
begin to develop over the Arklatx region into the day Sunday. The
lingering boundary, coupled with strong surface heating, could
allow a few isolated thunderstorms to develop over Northwest
Arkansas during the afternoon.

Little change is expected into the early/middle part of next week
with temperatures running slightly above normal for this time of
year. The upper low will slowly migrate eastward with time as
ridging aloft begins to build back over the Central/Southern
Plains. Precipitation changes will likely remain minimal at best
for the remainder of the work week into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  88  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   69  91  71  93 /  30  20  20  10
MLC   68  91  71  94 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   61  88  64  93 /  10  10  10   0
FYV   65  86  66  89 /  30  20  10  10
BYV   66  87  68  88 /  30  20  20  10
MKO   66  87  68  91 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   65  86  67  90 /  10  10  10  10
F10   66  88  70  93 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   70  94  70  94 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07




000
FXUS64 KTSA 292331
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
631 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Convection has recently developed along the stationary frontal
boundary however eventual coverage is expected to remain limited
prior to dissipation later this evening. Otherwise...patchy fog is
possible again tonight primarily across NE OK and far NW AR with
periodic MVFR ceilings after sunrise.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A weak cool front is currently pushing through Northeast Oklahoma
this afternoon and was located just south of Interstate 44. Slightly
cooler air has moved in behind the front primarily due to the
increased cloud cover.

A few widely scattered showers/thunderstorms will be possible
across Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas, mainly this
afternoon/evening, as the front stalls tonight. Cutoff low will
begin to develop over the Arklatx region into the day Sunday. The
lingering boundary, coupled with strong surface heating, could
allow a few isolated thunderstorms to develop over Northwest
Arkansas during the afternoon.

Little change is expected into the early/middle part of next week
with temperatures running slightly above normal for this time of
year. The upper low will slowly migrate eastward with time as
ridging aloft begins to build back over the Central/Southern
Plains. Precipitation changes will likely remain minimal at best
for the remainder of the work week into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  88  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   69  91  71  93 /  30  20  20  10
MLC   68  91  71  94 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   61  88  64  93 /  10  10  10   0
FYV   65  86  66  89 /  30  20  10  10
BYV   66  87  68  88 /  30  20  20  10
MKO   66  87  68  91 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   65  86  67  90 /  10  10  10  10
F10   66  88  70  93 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   70  94  70  94 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07




000
FXUS64 KTSA 292331
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
631 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Convection has recently developed along the stationary frontal
boundary however eventual coverage is expected to remain limited
prior to dissipation later this evening. Otherwise...patchy fog is
possible again tonight primarily across NE OK and far NW AR with
periodic MVFR ceilings after sunrise.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A weak cool front is currently pushing through Northeast Oklahoma
this afternoon and was located just south of Interstate 44. Slightly
cooler air has moved in behind the front primarily due to the
increased cloud cover.

A few widely scattered showers/thunderstorms will be possible
across Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas, mainly this
afternoon/evening, as the front stalls tonight. Cutoff low will
begin to develop over the Arklatx region into the day Sunday. The
lingering boundary, coupled with strong surface heating, could
allow a few isolated thunderstorms to develop over Northwest
Arkansas during the afternoon.

Little change is expected into the early/middle part of next week
with temperatures running slightly above normal for this time of
year. The upper low will slowly migrate eastward with time as
ridging aloft begins to build back over the Central/Southern
Plains. Precipitation changes will likely remain minimal at best
for the remainder of the work week into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  88  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   69  91  71  93 /  30  20  20  10
MLC   68  91  71  94 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   61  88  64  93 /  10  10  10   0
FYV   65  86  66  89 /  30  20  10  10
BYV   66  87  68  88 /  30  20  20  10
MKO   66  87  68  91 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   65  86  67  90 /  10  10  10  10
F10   66  88  70  93 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   70  94  70  94 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07




000
FXUS64 KOUN 292010
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
310 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE OF THE DAY.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...THINK THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY...SURFACE HEATING...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEAK
COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS NEAR AND SOUTH OF A QUANAH
TEXAS TO WAURIKA TO ATOKA LINE. SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY...
THOUGH THEY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCAL DOWNPOURS AS THEY
WILL BE SLOW MOVERS. KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCE IN THESE AREAS. STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE AT BEST AND MAY NOT OCCUR AT ALL AS
CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG.

AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING
SKIES ARE EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA...MAINLY EAST OF AN ALVA TO WAURIKA LINE...BUT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS A MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL
GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE TOO LOW TO
MENTION.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  91  67  95 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         63  95  66  98 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  98  71  99 /  10  10   0   0
GAGE OK           57  93  62  97 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     63  89  66  93 /  10  10   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  96 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 292010
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
310 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE OF THE DAY.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...THINK THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY...SURFACE HEATING...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEAK
COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS NEAR AND SOUTH OF A QUANAH
TEXAS TO WAURIKA TO ATOKA LINE. SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY...
THOUGH THEY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCAL DOWNPOURS AS THEY
WILL BE SLOW MOVERS. KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCE IN THESE AREAS. STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE AT BEST AND MAY NOT OCCUR AT ALL AS
CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG.

AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING
SKIES ARE EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA...MAINLY EAST OF AN ALVA TO WAURIKA LINE...BUT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS A MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL
GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE TOO LOW TO
MENTION.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  91  67  95 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         63  95  66  98 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  98  71  99 /  10  10   0   0
GAGE OK           57  93  62  97 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     63  89  66  93 /  10  10   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  96 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17




000
FXUS64 KTSA 291949
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A weak cool front is currently pushing through Northeast Oklahoma
this afternoon and was located just south of Interstate 44. Slightly
cooler air has moved in behind the front primarily due to the
increased cloud cover.

A few widely scattered showers/thunderstorms will be possible
across Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas, mainly this
afternoon/evening, as the front stalls tonight. Cutoff low will
begin to develop over the Arklatx region into the day Sunday. The
lingering boundary, coupled with strong surface heating, could
allow a few isolated thunderstorms to develop over Northwest
Arkansas during the afternoon.

Little change is expected into the early/middle part of next week
with temperatures running slightly above normal for this time of
year. The upper low will slowly migrate eastward with time as
ridging aloft begins to build back over the Central/Southern
Plains. Precipitation changes will likely remain minimal at best
for the remainder of the work week into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  88  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   70  91  71  93 /  30  20  20  10
MLC   68  91  71  94 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   61  88  64  93 /  10  10  10   0
FYV   66  86  66  89 /  30  20  10  10
BYV   67  87  68  88 /  30  20  20  10
MKO   66  87  68  91 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   65  86  67  90 /   0  10  10  10
F10   67  87  70  93 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   70  94  70  94 /  30  10  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....12




000
FXUS64 KTSA 291949
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A weak cool front is currently pushing through Northeast Oklahoma
this afternoon and was located just south of Interstate 44. Slightly
cooler air has moved in behind the front primarily due to the
increased cloud cover.

A few widely scattered showers/thunderstorms will be possible
across Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas, mainly this
afternoon/evening, as the front stalls tonight. Cutoff low will
begin to develop over the Arklatx region into the day Sunday. The
lingering boundary, coupled with strong surface heating, could
allow a few isolated thunderstorms to develop over Northwest
Arkansas during the afternoon.

Little change is expected into the early/middle part of next week
with temperatures running slightly above normal for this time of
year. The upper low will slowly migrate eastward with time as
ridging aloft begins to build back over the Central/Southern
Plains. Precipitation changes will likely remain minimal at best
for the remainder of the work week into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  88  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   70  91  71  93 /  30  20  20  10
MLC   68  91  71  94 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   61  88  64  93 /  10  10  10   0
FYV   66  86  66  89 /  30  20  10  10
BYV   67  87  68  88 /  30  20  20  10
MKO   66  87  68  91 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   65  86  67  90 /   0  10  10  10
F10   67  87  70  93 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   70  94  70  94 /  30  10  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....12




000
FXUS64 KTSA 291949
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A weak cool front is currently pushing through Northeast Oklahoma
this afternoon and was located just south of Interstate 44. Slightly
cooler air has moved in behind the front primarily due to the
increased cloud cover.

A few widely scattered showers/thunderstorms will be possible
across Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas, mainly this
afternoon/evening, as the front stalls tonight. Cutoff low will
begin to develop over the Arklatx region into the day Sunday. The
lingering boundary, coupled with strong surface heating, could
allow a few isolated thunderstorms to develop over Northwest
Arkansas during the afternoon.

Little change is expected into the early/middle part of next week
with temperatures running slightly above normal for this time of
year. The upper low will slowly migrate eastward with time as
ridging aloft begins to build back over the Central/Southern
Plains. Precipitation changes will likely remain minimal at best
for the remainder of the work week into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  88  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   70  91  71  93 /  30  20  20  10
MLC   68  91  71  94 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   61  88  64  93 /  10  10  10   0
FYV   66  86  66  89 /  30  20  10  10
BYV   67  87  68  88 /  30  20  20  10
MKO   66  87  68  91 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   65  86  67  90 /   0  10  10  10
F10   67  87  70  93 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   70  94  70  94 /  30  10  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....12




000
FXUS64 KTSA 291949
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A weak cool front is currently pushing through Northeast Oklahoma
this afternoon and was located just south of Interstate 44. Slightly
cooler air has moved in behind the front primarily due to the
increased cloud cover.

A few widely scattered showers/thunderstorms will be possible
across Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas, mainly this
afternoon/evening, as the front stalls tonight. Cutoff low will
begin to develop over the Arklatx region into the day Sunday. The
lingering boundary, coupled with strong surface heating, could
allow a few isolated thunderstorms to develop over Northwest
Arkansas during the afternoon.

Little change is expected into the early/middle part of next week
with temperatures running slightly above normal for this time of
year. The upper low will slowly migrate eastward with time as
ridging aloft begins to build back over the Central/Southern
Plains. Precipitation changes will likely remain minimal at best
for the remainder of the work week into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  88  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   70  91  71  93 /  30  20  20  10
MLC   68  91  71  94 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   61  88  64  93 /  10  10  10   0
FYV   66  86  66  89 /  30  20  10  10
BYV   67  87  68  88 /  30  20  20  10
MKO   66  87  68  91 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   65  86  67  90 /   0  10  10  10
F10   67  87  70  93 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   70  94  70  94 /  30  10  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....12




000
FXUS64 KTSA 291949
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A weak cool front is currently pushing through Northeast Oklahoma
this afternoon and was located just south of Interstate 44. Slightly
cooler air has moved in behind the front primarily due to the
increased cloud cover.

A few widely scattered showers/thunderstorms will be possible
across Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas, mainly this
afternoon/evening, as the front stalls tonight. Cutoff low will
begin to develop over the Arklatx region into the day Sunday. The
lingering boundary, coupled with strong surface heating, could
allow a few isolated thunderstorms to develop over Northwest
Arkansas during the afternoon.

Little change is expected into the early/middle part of next week
with temperatures running slightly above normal for this time of
year. The upper low will slowly migrate eastward with time as
ridging aloft begins to build back over the Central/Southern
Plains. Precipitation changes will likely remain minimal at best
for the remainder of the work week into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  88  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   70  91  71  93 /  30  20  20  10
MLC   68  91  71  94 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   61  88  64  93 /  10  10  10   0
FYV   66  86  66  89 /  30  20  10  10
BYV   67  87  68  88 /  30  20  20  10
MKO   66  87  68  91 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   65  86  67  90 /   0  10  10  10
F10   67  87  70  93 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   70  94  70  94 /  30  10  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....12




000
FXUS64 KTSA 291949
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A weak cool front is currently pushing through Northeast Oklahoma
this afternoon and was located just south of Interstate 44. Slightly
cooler air has moved in behind the front primarily due to the
increased cloud cover.

A few widely scattered showers/thunderstorms will be possible
across Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas, mainly this
afternoon/evening, as the front stalls tonight. Cutoff low will
begin to develop over the Arklatx region into the day Sunday. The
lingering boundary, coupled with strong surface heating, could
allow a few isolated thunderstorms to develop over Northwest
Arkansas during the afternoon.

Little change is expected into the early/middle part of next week
with temperatures running slightly above normal for this time of
year. The upper low will slowly migrate eastward with time as
ridging aloft begins to build back over the Central/Southern
Plains. Precipitation changes will likely remain minimal at best
for the remainder of the work week into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  88  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   70  91  71  93 /  30  20  20  10
MLC   68  91  71  94 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   61  88  64  93 /  10  10  10   0
FYV   66  86  66  89 /  30  20  10  10
BYV   67  87  68  88 /  30  20  20  10
MKO   66  87  68  91 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   65  86  67  90 /   0  10  10  10
F10   67  87  70  93 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   70  94  70  94 /  30  10  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....12



000
FXUS64 KOUN 291735
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS NEAR KPNC THROUGH
22Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.

MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BR MAY OCCUR IN A FEW LOCATIONS MAINLY EAST
OF KAVK-KLAW 07-14Z. KPNC HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE
WHERE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WITH BR MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER...DID NOT
MENTION AS CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING. OTHERWISE...HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO THIN WHILE SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
29/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
MVFR FOG WILL BE SEEN MAINLY AROUND KPNC EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. AS
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS OVER THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM NEAR ELK CITY TO PONCA CITY AT
THIS TYPING. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THEN MIX BACK NORTH OF REGION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
SHOULD BE NEAR AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

BEGINNING THIS EVENING...FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP FREE WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. ECM HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...KEEPING UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. IF THERE IS SOME RETROGRADING WE COULD SEE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OR A FEW STORMS EAST OF I-35 MID TO LATE
WEEK. WITH CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE...WE WILL STAY WITH THE
BLENDED INITIALIZATIONS AND KEEP FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  91  68  95 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         66  95  68  98 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  98  72  99 /  10  10   0   0
GAGE OK           62  93  65  97 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     65  89  68  92 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  96 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 291735
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS NEAR KPNC THROUGH
22Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.

MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BR MAY OCCUR IN A FEW LOCATIONS MAINLY EAST
OF KAVK-KLAW 07-14Z. KPNC HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE
WHERE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WITH BR MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER...DID NOT
MENTION AS CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING. OTHERWISE...HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO THIN WHILE SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
29/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
MVFR FOG WILL BE SEEN MAINLY AROUND KPNC EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. AS
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS OVER THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM NEAR ELK CITY TO PONCA CITY AT
THIS TYPING. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THEN MIX BACK NORTH OF REGION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
SHOULD BE NEAR AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

BEGINNING THIS EVENING...FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP FREE WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. ECM HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...KEEPING UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. IF THERE IS SOME RETROGRADING WE COULD SEE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OR A FEW STORMS EAST OF I-35 MID TO LATE
WEEK. WITH CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE...WE WILL STAY WITH THE
BLENDED INITIALIZATIONS AND KEEP FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  91  68  95 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         66  95  68  98 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  98  72  99 /  10  10   0   0
GAGE OK           62  93  65  97 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     65  89  68  92 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  96 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 291735
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS NEAR KPNC THROUGH
22Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.

MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BR MAY OCCUR IN A FEW LOCATIONS MAINLY EAST
OF KAVK-KLAW 07-14Z. KPNC HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE
WHERE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WITH BR MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER...DID NOT
MENTION AS CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING. OTHERWISE...HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO THIN WHILE SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
29/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
MVFR FOG WILL BE SEEN MAINLY AROUND KPNC EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. AS
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS OVER THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM NEAR ELK CITY TO PONCA CITY AT
THIS TYPING. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THEN MIX BACK NORTH OF REGION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
SHOULD BE NEAR AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

BEGINNING THIS EVENING...FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP FREE WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. ECM HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...KEEPING UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. IF THERE IS SOME RETROGRADING WE COULD SEE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OR A FEW STORMS EAST OF I-35 MID TO LATE
WEEK. WITH CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE...WE WILL STAY WITH THE
BLENDED INITIALIZATIONS AND KEEP FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  91  68  95 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         66  95  68  98 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  98  72  99 /  10  10   0   0
GAGE OK           62  93  65  97 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     65  89  68  92 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  96 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 291735
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS NEAR KPNC THROUGH
22Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.

MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BR MAY OCCUR IN A FEW LOCATIONS MAINLY EAST
OF KAVK-KLAW 07-14Z. KPNC HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE
WHERE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WITH BR MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER...DID NOT
MENTION AS CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING. OTHERWISE...HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO THIN WHILE SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
29/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
MVFR FOG WILL BE SEEN MAINLY AROUND KPNC EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. AS
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS OVER THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM NEAR ELK CITY TO PONCA CITY AT
THIS TYPING. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THEN MIX BACK NORTH OF REGION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
SHOULD BE NEAR AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

BEGINNING THIS EVENING...FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP FREE WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. ECM HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...KEEPING UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. IF THERE IS SOME RETROGRADING WE COULD SEE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OR A FEW STORMS EAST OF I-35 MID TO LATE
WEEK. WITH CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE...WE WILL STAY WITH THE
BLENDED INITIALIZATIONS AND KEEP FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  91  68  95 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         66  95  68  98 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  98  72  99 /  10  10   0   0
GAGE OK           62  93  65  97 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     65  89  68  92 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  96 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 291735
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS NEAR KPNC THROUGH
22Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.

MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BR MAY OCCUR IN A FEW LOCATIONS MAINLY EAST
OF KAVK-KLAW 07-14Z. KPNC HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE
WHERE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WITH BR MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER...DID NOT
MENTION AS CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING. OTHERWISE...HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO THIN WHILE SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
29/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
MVFR FOG WILL BE SEEN MAINLY AROUND KPNC EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. AS
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS OVER THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM NEAR ELK CITY TO PONCA CITY AT
THIS TYPING. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THEN MIX BACK NORTH OF REGION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
SHOULD BE NEAR AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

BEGINNING THIS EVENING...FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP FREE WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. ECM HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...KEEPING UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. IF THERE IS SOME RETROGRADING WE COULD SEE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OR A FEW STORMS EAST OF I-35 MID TO LATE
WEEK. WITH CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE...WE WILL STAY WITH THE
BLENDED INITIALIZATIONS AND KEEP FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  91  68  95 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         66  95  68  98 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  98  72  99 /  10  10   0   0
GAGE OK           62  93  65  97 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     65  89  68  92 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  96 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 291735
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS NEAR KPNC THROUGH
22Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.

MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BR MAY OCCUR IN A FEW LOCATIONS MAINLY EAST
OF KAVK-KLAW 07-14Z. KPNC HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE
WHERE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WITH BR MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER...DID NOT
MENTION AS CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING. OTHERWISE...HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO THIN WHILE SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
29/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
MVFR FOG WILL BE SEEN MAINLY AROUND KPNC EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. AS
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS OVER THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM NEAR ELK CITY TO PONCA CITY AT
THIS TYPING. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THEN MIX BACK NORTH OF REGION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
SHOULD BE NEAR AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

BEGINNING THIS EVENING...FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP FREE WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. ECM HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...KEEPING UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. IF THERE IS SOME RETROGRADING WE COULD SEE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OR A FEW STORMS EAST OF I-35 MID TO LATE
WEEK. WITH CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE...WE WILL STAY WITH THE
BLENDED INITIALIZATIONS AND KEEP FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  91  68  95 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         66  95  68  98 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  98  72  99 /  10  10   0   0
GAGE OK           62  93  65  97 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     65  89  68  92 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  96 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17/17



000
FXUS64 KTSA 291728
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1228 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Weak front pushing through NE OK this morning with mvfr ceilings
affecting KTUL/KRVS for an hour or so after passage. Also, some
fog potential again tonight especially KBVO. Aside from that
expect VFR conditions to prevail, with very slim chance of
additional shower at Arkansas sites this afternoon/evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A few showers lingering within mid level moist axis lying across
southeast Oklahoma this morning, well ahead of frontal boundary
which remains northwest of Tulsa at this time. Still a few showers
or an isolated storm possible through the afternoon ahead of the
front as indicated by hi res short range models as it pushes
south and eventually loses definition, but at this time feel that
most of the precip threat has ended for the day. Area of low
clouds trying to expand south behind front and this could keep
temps down a few degrees this afternoon. Will send another update
to pops and sky condition, but will keep high temp forecast as is
for the time being.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Some patchy fog may develop tonight, with KBVO most likely to see
reduced visibilities. An isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out, especially at the Arkansas sites, but the chances are
too low to include in the TAF`s, except at KFSM early this
morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Weak frontal boundary  north central OK into far
southeast KS leisurely drifting southeast. Light
showers southeast OK and northwest AR well ahead
of frontal boundary. Minor convective line north-
east OK southeast KS border near/with the front.
Chance pops today areas east and south of Tulsa.
Best  chance for measurable rain Arkansas zones.

00z ECMWF..which put out > 0.10 inch rain ending
12z this morning  over northern zones... bullish
with precip tonight for southeast OK / northwest
AR. Other models spitting out negligible precip.
Stayed with previous  dry forecast at this time.

H500 ridge folds over the top Sunday/Monday with
H500 trough to our southeast. This will keep our
southeast zones close to the western edge precip
chances Monday/Tuesday. Ridge continues to build
north midweek.  GFS brings energy from east TX &
LA to undercut the ridge..while ECMWF keeps that
energy farther southeast. Maintained dry seasonal
forecast.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  65  88  70 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   90  70  91  71 /  20  30  20  20
MLC   92  68  91  71 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   84  61  88  64 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   85  66  86  66 /  20  30  20  10
BYV   85  67  87  68 /  20  30  20  20
MKO   89  66  87  68 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   85  65  89  69 /  10   0  10  10
F10   90  67  87  70 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   94  70  94  70 /  20  30  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...14



000
FXUS64 KTSA 291728
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1228 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Weak front pushing through NE OK this morning with mvfr ceilings
affecting KTUL/KRVS for an hour or so after passage. Also, some
fog potential again tonight especially KBVO. Aside from that
expect VFR conditions to prevail, with very slim chance of
additional shower at Arkansas sites this afternoon/evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A few showers lingering within mid level moist axis lying across
southeast Oklahoma this morning, well ahead of frontal boundary
which remains northwest of Tulsa at this time. Still a few showers
or an isolated storm possible through the afternoon ahead of the
front as indicated by hi res short range models as it pushes
south and eventually loses definition, but at this time feel that
most of the precip threat has ended for the day. Area of low
clouds trying to expand south behind front and this could keep
temps down a few degrees this afternoon. Will send another update
to pops and sky condition, but will keep high temp forecast as is
for the time being.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Some patchy fog may develop tonight, with KBVO most likely to see
reduced visibilities. An isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out, especially at the Arkansas sites, but the chances are
too low to include in the TAF`s, except at KFSM early this
morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Weak frontal boundary  north central OK into far
southeast KS leisurely drifting southeast. Light
showers southeast OK and northwest AR well ahead
of frontal boundary. Minor convective line north-
east OK southeast KS border near/with the front.
Chance pops today areas east and south of Tulsa.
Best  chance for measurable rain Arkansas zones.

00z ECMWF..which put out > 0.10 inch rain ending
12z this morning  over northern zones... bullish
with precip tonight for southeast OK / northwest
AR. Other models spitting out negligible precip.
Stayed with previous  dry forecast at this time.

H500 ridge folds over the top Sunday/Monday with
H500 trough to our southeast. This will keep our
southeast zones close to the western edge precip
chances Monday/Tuesday. Ridge continues to build
north midweek.  GFS brings energy from east TX &
LA to undercut the ridge..while ECMWF keeps that
energy farther southeast. Maintained dry seasonal
forecast.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  65  88  70 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   90  70  91  71 /  20  30  20  20
MLC   92  68  91  71 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   84  61  88  64 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   85  66  86  66 /  20  30  20  10
BYV   85  67  87  68 /  20  30  20  20
MKO   89  66  87  68 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   85  65  89  69 /  10   0  10  10
F10   90  67  87  70 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   94  70  94  70 /  20  30  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...14




000
FXUS64 KTSA 291728
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1228 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Weak front pushing through NE OK this morning with mvfr ceilings
affecting KTUL/KRVS for an hour or so after passage. Also, some
fog potential again tonight especially KBVO. Aside from that
expect VFR conditions to prevail, with very slim chance of
additional shower at Arkansas sites this afternoon/evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A few showers lingering within mid level moist axis lying across
southeast Oklahoma this morning, well ahead of frontal boundary
which remains northwest of Tulsa at this time. Still a few showers
or an isolated storm possible through the afternoon ahead of the
front as indicated by hi res short range models as it pushes
south and eventually loses definition, but at this time feel that
most of the precip threat has ended for the day. Area of low
clouds trying to expand south behind front and this could keep
temps down a few degrees this afternoon. Will send another update
to pops and sky condition, but will keep high temp forecast as is
for the time being.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Some patchy fog may develop tonight, with KBVO most likely to see
reduced visibilities. An isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out, especially at the Arkansas sites, but the chances are
too low to include in the TAF`s, except at KFSM early this
morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Weak frontal boundary  north central OK into far
southeast KS leisurely drifting southeast. Light
showers southeast OK and northwest AR well ahead
of frontal boundary. Minor convective line north-
east OK southeast KS border near/with the front.
Chance pops today areas east and south of Tulsa.
Best  chance for measurable rain Arkansas zones.

00z ECMWF..which put out > 0.10 inch rain ending
12z this morning  over northern zones... bullish
with precip tonight for southeast OK / northwest
AR. Other models spitting out negligible precip.
Stayed with previous  dry forecast at this time.

H500 ridge folds over the top Sunday/Monday with
H500 trough to our southeast. This will keep our
southeast zones close to the western edge precip
chances Monday/Tuesday. Ridge continues to build
north midweek.  GFS brings energy from east TX &
LA to undercut the ridge..while ECMWF keeps that
energy farther southeast. Maintained dry seasonal
forecast.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  65  88  70 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   90  70  91  71 /  20  30  20  20
MLC   92  68  91  71 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   84  61  88  64 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   85  66  86  66 /  20  30  20  10
BYV   85  67  87  68 /  20  30  20  20
MKO   89  66  87  68 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   85  65  89  69 /  10   0  10  10
F10   90  67  87  70 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   94  70  94  70 /  20  30  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...14




000
FXUS64 KTSA 291728
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1228 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Weak front pushing through NE OK this morning with mvfr ceilings
affecting KTUL/KRVS for an hour or so after passage. Also, some
fog potential again tonight especially KBVO. Aside from that
expect VFR conditions to prevail, with very slim chance of
additional shower at Arkansas sites this afternoon/evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A few showers lingering within mid level moist axis lying across
southeast Oklahoma this morning, well ahead of frontal boundary
which remains northwest of Tulsa at this time. Still a few showers
or an isolated storm possible through the afternoon ahead of the
front as indicated by hi res short range models as it pushes
south and eventually loses definition, but at this time feel that
most of the precip threat has ended for the day. Area of low
clouds trying to expand south behind front and this could keep
temps down a few degrees this afternoon. Will send another update
to pops and sky condition, but will keep high temp forecast as is
for the time being.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Some patchy fog may develop tonight, with KBVO most likely to see
reduced visibilities. An isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out, especially at the Arkansas sites, but the chances are
too low to include in the TAF`s, except at KFSM early this
morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Weak frontal boundary  north central OK into far
southeast KS leisurely drifting southeast. Light
showers southeast OK and northwest AR well ahead
of frontal boundary. Minor convective line north-
east OK southeast KS border near/with the front.
Chance pops today areas east and south of Tulsa.
Best  chance for measurable rain Arkansas zones.

00z ECMWF..which put out > 0.10 inch rain ending
12z this morning  over northern zones... bullish
with precip tonight for southeast OK / northwest
AR. Other models spitting out negligible precip.
Stayed with previous  dry forecast at this time.

H500 ridge folds over the top Sunday/Monday with
H500 trough to our southeast. This will keep our
southeast zones close to the western edge precip
chances Monday/Tuesday. Ridge continues to build
north midweek.  GFS brings energy from east TX &
LA to undercut the ridge..while ECMWF keeps that
energy farther southeast. Maintained dry seasonal
forecast.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  65  88  70 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   90  70  91  71 /  20  30  20  20
MLC   92  68  91  71 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   84  61  88  64 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   85  66  86  66 /  20  30  20  10
BYV   85  67  87  68 /  20  30  20  20
MKO   89  66  87  68 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   85  65  89  69 /  10   0  10  10
F10   90  67  87  70 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   94  70  94  70 /  20  30  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...14



000
FXUS64 KOUN 291613
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1113 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.


A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING. OTHERWISE...HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO THIN WHILE SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
29/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
MVFR FOG WILL BE SEEN MAINLY AROUND KPNC EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. AS
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS OVER THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM NEAR ELK CITY TO PONCA CITY AT
THIS TYPING. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THEN MIX BACK NORTH OF REGION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
SHOULD BE NEAR AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

BEGINNING THIS EVENING...FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP FREE WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. ECM HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...KEEPING UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. IF THERE IS SOME RETROGRADING WE COULD SEE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OR A FEW STORMS EAST OF I-35 MID TO LATE
WEEK. WITH CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE...WE WILL STAY WITH THE
BLENDED INITIALIZATIONS AND KEEP FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  67  91  68 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         93  66  95  68 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  97  70  98  72 /  20  10  10   0
GAGE OK           90  62  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     87  65  89  68 /  10  10   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  71 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 291613
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1113 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.


A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING. OTHERWISE...HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO THIN WHILE SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
29/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
MVFR FOG WILL BE SEEN MAINLY AROUND KPNC EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. AS
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS OVER THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM NEAR ELK CITY TO PONCA CITY AT
THIS TYPING. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THEN MIX BACK NORTH OF REGION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
SHOULD BE NEAR AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

BEGINNING THIS EVENING...FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP FREE WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. ECM HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...KEEPING UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. IF THERE IS SOME RETROGRADING WE COULD SEE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OR A FEW STORMS EAST OF I-35 MID TO LATE
WEEK. WITH CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE...WE WILL STAY WITH THE
BLENDED INITIALIZATIONS AND KEEP FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  67  91  68 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         93  66  95  68 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  97  70  98  72 /  20  10  10   0
GAGE OK           90  62  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     87  65  89  68 /  10  10   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  71 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 291613
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1113 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.


A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING. OTHERWISE...HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO THIN WHILE SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
29/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
MVFR FOG WILL BE SEEN MAINLY AROUND KPNC EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. AS
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS OVER THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM NEAR ELK CITY TO PONCA CITY AT
THIS TYPING. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THEN MIX BACK NORTH OF REGION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
SHOULD BE NEAR AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

BEGINNING THIS EVENING...FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP FREE WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. ECM HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...KEEPING UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. IF THERE IS SOME RETROGRADING WE COULD SEE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OR A FEW STORMS EAST OF I-35 MID TO LATE
WEEK. WITH CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE...WE WILL STAY WITH THE
BLENDED INITIALIZATIONS AND KEEP FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  67  91  68 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         93  66  95  68 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  97  70  98  72 /  20  10  10   0
GAGE OK           90  62  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     87  65  89  68 /  10  10   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  71 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 291613
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1113 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.


A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING. OTHERWISE...HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO THIN WHILE SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
29/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
MVFR FOG WILL BE SEEN MAINLY AROUND KPNC EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. AS
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS OVER THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM NEAR ELK CITY TO PONCA CITY AT
THIS TYPING. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THEN MIX BACK NORTH OF REGION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
SHOULD BE NEAR AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

BEGINNING THIS EVENING...FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP FREE WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. ECM HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...KEEPING UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. IF THERE IS SOME RETROGRADING WE COULD SEE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OR A FEW STORMS EAST OF I-35 MID TO LATE
WEEK. WITH CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE...WE WILL STAY WITH THE
BLENDED INITIALIZATIONS AND KEEP FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  67  91  68 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         93  66  95  68 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  97  70  98  72 /  20  10  10   0
GAGE OK           90  62  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     87  65  89  68 /  10  10   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  71 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KTSA 291542
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1042 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A few showers lingering within mid level moist axis lying across
southeast Oklahoma this morning, well ahead of frontal boundary
which remains northwest of Tulsa at this time. Still a few showers
or an isolated storm possible through the afternoon ahead of the
front as indicated by hi res short range models as it pushes
south and eventually loses definition, but at this time feel that
most of the precip threat has ended for the day. Area of low
clouds trying to expand south behind front and this could keep
temps down a few degrees this afternoon. Will send another update
to pops and sky condition, but will keep high temp forecast as is
for the time being.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Some patchy fog may develop tonight, with KBVO most likely to see
reduced visibilities. An isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out, especially at the Arkansas sites, but the chances are
too low to include in the TAF`s, except at KFSM early this
morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Weak frontal boundary  north central OK into far
southeast KS leisurely drifting southeast. Light
showers southeast OK and northwest AR well ahead
of frontal boundary. Minor convective line north-
east OK southeast KS border near/with the front.
Chance pops today areas east and south of Tulsa.
Best  chance for measurable rain Arkansas zones.

00z ECMWF..which put out > 0.10 inch rain ending
12z this morning  over northern zones... bullish
with precip tonight for southeast OK / northwest
AR. Other models spitting out negligible precip.
Stayed with previous  dry forecast at this time.

H500 ridge folds over the top Sunday/Monday with
H500 trough to our southeast. This will keep our
southeast zones close to the western edge precip
chances Monday/Tuesday. Ridge continues to build
north midweek.  GFS brings energy from east TX &
LA to undercut the ridge..while ECMWF keeps that
energy farther southeast. Maintained dry seasonal
forecast.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  66  88  70 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   90  69  90  69 /  20  20  20  20
MLC   92  68  91  70 /  10  20  10  10
BVO   84  62  87  63 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   85  64  85  65 /  20  20  20  10
BYV   85  64  85  65 /  20  20  20  20
MKO   89  66  88  69 /  10  20  10  10
MIO   85  65  86  67 /  10  20  10  10
F10   90  66  88  70 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   94  69  93  70 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....12



000
FXUS64 KTSA 291542
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1042 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A few showers lingering within mid level moist axis lying across
southeast Oklahoma this morning, well ahead of frontal boundary
which remains northwest of Tulsa at this time. Still a few showers
or an isolated storm possible through the afternoon ahead of the
front as indicated by hi res short range models as it pushes
south and eventually loses definition, but at this time feel that
most of the precip threat has ended for the day. Area of low
clouds trying to expand south behind front and this could keep
temps down a few degrees this afternoon. Will send another update
to pops and sky condition, but will keep high temp forecast as is
for the time being.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Some patchy fog may develop tonight, with KBVO most likely to see
reduced visibilities. An isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out, especially at the Arkansas sites, but the chances are
too low to include in the TAF`s, except at KFSM early this
morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Weak frontal boundary  north central OK into far
southeast KS leisurely drifting southeast. Light
showers southeast OK and northwest AR well ahead
of frontal boundary. Minor convective line north-
east OK southeast KS border near/with the front.
Chance pops today areas east and south of Tulsa.
Best  chance for measurable rain Arkansas zones.

00z ECMWF..which put out > 0.10 inch rain ending
12z this morning  over northern zones... bullish
with precip tonight for southeast OK / northwest
AR. Other models spitting out negligible precip.
Stayed with previous  dry forecast at this time.

H500 ridge folds over the top Sunday/Monday with
H500 trough to our southeast. This will keep our
southeast zones close to the western edge precip
chances Monday/Tuesday. Ridge continues to build
north midweek.  GFS brings energy from east TX &
LA to undercut the ridge..while ECMWF keeps that
energy farther southeast. Maintained dry seasonal
forecast.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  66  88  70 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   90  69  90  69 /  20  20  20  20
MLC   92  68  91  70 /  10  20  10  10
BVO   84  62  87  63 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   85  64  85  65 /  20  20  20  10
BYV   85  64  85  65 /  20  20  20  20
MKO   89  66  88  69 /  10  20  10  10
MIO   85  65  86  67 /  10  20  10  10
F10   90  66  88  70 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   94  69  93  70 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....12



000
FXUS64 KTSA 291542
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1042 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A few showers lingering within mid level moist axis lying across
southeast Oklahoma this morning, well ahead of frontal boundary
which remains northwest of Tulsa at this time. Still a few showers
or an isolated storm possible through the afternoon ahead of the
front as indicated by hi res short range models as it pushes
south and eventually loses definition, but at this time feel that
most of the precip threat has ended for the day. Area of low
clouds trying to expand south behind front and this could keep
temps down a few degrees this afternoon. Will send another update
to pops and sky condition, but will keep high temp forecast as is
for the time being.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Some patchy fog may develop tonight, with KBVO most likely to see
reduced visibilities. An isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out, especially at the Arkansas sites, but the chances are
too low to include in the TAF`s, except at KFSM early this
morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Weak frontal boundary  north central OK into far
southeast KS leisurely drifting southeast. Light
showers southeast OK and northwest AR well ahead
of frontal boundary. Minor convective line north-
east OK southeast KS border near/with the front.
Chance pops today areas east and south of Tulsa.
Best  chance for measurable rain Arkansas zones.

00z ECMWF..which put out > 0.10 inch rain ending
12z this morning  over northern zones... bullish
with precip tonight for southeast OK / northwest
AR. Other models spitting out negligible precip.
Stayed with previous  dry forecast at this time.

H500 ridge folds over the top Sunday/Monday with
H500 trough to our southeast. This will keep our
southeast zones close to the western edge precip
chances Monday/Tuesday. Ridge continues to build
north midweek.  GFS brings energy from east TX &
LA to undercut the ridge..while ECMWF keeps that
energy farther southeast. Maintained dry seasonal
forecast.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  66  88  70 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   90  69  90  69 /  20  20  20  20
MLC   92  68  91  70 /  10  20  10  10
BVO   84  62  87  63 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   85  64  85  65 /  20  20  20  10
BYV   85  64  85  65 /  20  20  20  20
MKO   89  66  88  69 /  10  20  10  10
MIO   85  65  86  67 /  10  20  10  10
F10   90  66  88  70 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   94  69  93  70 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....12




000
FXUS64 KTSA 291142
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
642 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Some patchy fog may develop tonight, with KBVO most likely to see
reduced visibilities. An isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out, especially at the Arkansas sites, but the chances are
too low to include in the TAF`s, except at KFSM early this
morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Weak frontal boundary  north central OK into far
southeast KS leisurely drifting southeast. Light
showers southeast OK and northwest AR well ahead
of frontal boundary. Minor convective line north-
east OK southeast KS border near/with the front.
Chance pops today areas east and south of Tulsa.
Best  chance for measurable rain Arkansas zones.

00z ECMWF..which put out > 0.10 inch rain ending
12z this morning  over northern zones... bullish
with precip tonight for southeast OK / northwest
AR. Other models spitting out negligible precip.
Stayed with previous  dry forecast at this time.

H500 ridge folds over the top Sunday/Monday with
H500 trough to our southeast. This will keep our
southeast zones close to the western edge precip
chances Monday/Tuesday. Ridge continues to build
north midweek.  GFS brings energy from east TX &
LA to undercut the ridge..while ECMWF keeps that
energy farther southeast. Maintained dry seasonal
forecast.
GW

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05




000
FXUS64 KTSA 291142
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
642 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Some patchy fog may develop tonight, with KBVO most likely to see
reduced visibilities. An isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out, especially at the Arkansas sites, but the chances are
too low to include in the TAF`s, except at KFSM early this
morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Weak frontal boundary  north central OK into far
southeast KS leisurely drifting southeast. Light
showers southeast OK and northwest AR well ahead
of frontal boundary. Minor convective line north-
east OK southeast KS border near/with the front.
Chance pops today areas east and south of Tulsa.
Best  chance for measurable rain Arkansas zones.

00z ECMWF..which put out > 0.10 inch rain ending
12z this morning  over northern zones... bullish
with precip tonight for southeast OK / northwest
AR. Other models spitting out negligible precip.
Stayed with previous  dry forecast at this time.

H500 ridge folds over the top Sunday/Monday with
H500 trough to our southeast. This will keep our
southeast zones close to the western edge precip
chances Monday/Tuesday. Ridge continues to build
north midweek.  GFS brings energy from east TX &
LA to undercut the ridge..while ECMWF keeps that
energy farther southeast. Maintained dry seasonal
forecast.
GW

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05



000
FXUS64 KTSA 291142
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
642 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Some patchy fog may develop tonight, with KBVO most likely to see
reduced visibilities. An isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out, especially at the Arkansas sites, but the chances are
too low to include in the TAF`s, except at KFSM early this
morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Weak frontal boundary  north central OK into far
southeast KS leisurely drifting southeast. Light
showers southeast OK and northwest AR well ahead
of frontal boundary. Minor convective line north-
east OK southeast KS border near/with the front.
Chance pops today areas east and south of Tulsa.
Best  chance for measurable rain Arkansas zones.

00z ECMWF..which put out > 0.10 inch rain ending
12z this morning  over northern zones... bullish
with precip tonight for southeast OK / northwest
AR. Other models spitting out negligible precip.
Stayed with previous  dry forecast at this time.

H500 ridge folds over the top Sunday/Monday with
H500 trough to our southeast. This will keep our
southeast zones close to the western edge precip
chances Monday/Tuesday. Ridge continues to build
north midweek.  GFS brings energy from east TX &
LA to undercut the ridge..while ECMWF keeps that
energy farther southeast. Maintained dry seasonal
forecast.
GW

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05



000
FXUS64 KTSA 291142
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
642 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Some patchy fog may develop tonight, with KBVO most likely to see
reduced visibilities. An isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out, especially at the Arkansas sites, but the chances are
too low to include in the TAF`s, except at KFSM early this
morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Weak frontal boundary  north central OK into far
southeast KS leisurely drifting southeast. Light
showers southeast OK and northwest AR well ahead
of frontal boundary. Minor convective line north-
east OK southeast KS border near/with the front.
Chance pops today areas east and south of Tulsa.
Best  chance for measurable rain Arkansas zones.

00z ECMWF..which put out > 0.10 inch rain ending
12z this morning  over northern zones... bullish
with precip tonight for southeast OK / northwest
AR. Other models spitting out negligible precip.
Stayed with previous  dry forecast at this time.

H500 ridge folds over the top Sunday/Monday with
H500 trough to our southeast. This will keep our
southeast zones close to the western edge precip
chances Monday/Tuesday. Ridge continues to build
north midweek.  GFS brings energy from east TX &
LA to undercut the ridge..while ECMWF keeps that
energy farther southeast. Maintained dry seasonal
forecast.
GW

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05



000
FXUS64 KTSA 291142
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
642 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Some patchy fog may develop tonight, with KBVO most likely to see
reduced visibilities. An isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out, especially at the Arkansas sites, but the chances are
too low to include in the TAF`s, except at KFSM early this
morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Weak frontal boundary  north central OK into far
southeast KS leisurely drifting southeast. Light
showers southeast OK and northwest AR well ahead
of frontal boundary. Minor convective line north-
east OK southeast KS border near/with the front.
Chance pops today areas east and south of Tulsa.
Best  chance for measurable rain Arkansas zones.

00z ECMWF..which put out > 0.10 inch rain ending
12z this morning  over northern zones... bullish
with precip tonight for southeast OK / northwest
AR. Other models spitting out negligible precip.
Stayed with previous  dry forecast at this time.

H500 ridge folds over the top Sunday/Monday with
H500 trough to our southeast. This will keep our
southeast zones close to the western edge precip
chances Monday/Tuesday. Ridge continues to build
north midweek.  GFS brings energy from east TX &
LA to undercut the ridge..while ECMWF keeps that
energy farther southeast. Maintained dry seasonal
forecast.
GW

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05



000
FXUS64 KOUN 291138 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
638 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
29/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR FOG WILL BE SEEN MAINLY AROUND KPNC EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. AS
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS OVER THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM NEAR ELK CITY TO PONCA CITY AT
THIS TYPING. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THEN MIX BACK NORTH OF REGION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
SHOULD BE NEAR AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

BEGINNING THIS EVENING...FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP FREE WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. ECM HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...KEEPING UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. IF THERE IS SOME RETROGRADING WE COULD SEE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OR A FEW STORMS EAST OF I-35 MID TO LATE
WEEK. WITH CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE...WE WILL STAY WITH THE
BLENDED INITIALIZATIONS AND KEEP FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  67  91  68 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         93  66  95  68 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  97  70  98  72 /  20  10  10   0
GAGE OK           90  62  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     87  65  89  68 /  10  10   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  71 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 291138 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
638 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
29/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR FOG WILL BE SEEN MAINLY AROUND KPNC EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. AS
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS OVER THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM NEAR ELK CITY TO PONCA CITY AT
THIS TYPING. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THEN MIX BACK NORTH OF REGION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
SHOULD BE NEAR AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

BEGINNING THIS EVENING...FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP FREE WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. ECM HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...KEEPING UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. IF THERE IS SOME RETROGRADING WE COULD SEE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OR A FEW STORMS EAST OF I-35 MID TO LATE
WEEK. WITH CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE...WE WILL STAY WITH THE
BLENDED INITIALIZATIONS AND KEEP FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  67  91  68 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         93  66  95  68 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  97  70  98  72 /  20  10  10   0
GAGE OK           90  62  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     87  65  89  68 /  10  10   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  71 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11



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