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000
FXUS64 KTSA 081114
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
514 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
NW surface winds will increase today at all sites...with the
strongest gusts expected across the NE OK and NW AR site where
30-35 kt gusts can be expect through the afternoon. Winds will
begin to lessen during the last half of the TAF period.
Otherwise...VFR elements will prevail at all sites through the
entire period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Strong winds will prevail across the forecast area today w/
regional VWP data sampling 30-40kts currently which will be tapped
with expected mixing heights. The result will be 35 to 45 mph
gusts across eastern OK and possibly 30 to 40 mph gusts across
western AR. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler than recent
days...however humidities will remain low as dewpoints
fall...with the resultant conditions being supportive of rapid
spread to any wildfires today. Areas of low clouds will pass
across far NE OK and far NW AR today with a few sprinkles
possible...otherwise clear skies will prevail for several days to
come beneath a very dry northwesterly flow pattern.

The forecast remains consistent in keeping the area between much
colder air to the north and east...and much warmer air to the
southwest. Also remaining consistent is the large spread in
potential temperatures...however confidence has increased somewhat
in supporting above normal temperatures for mid to late week.
Latest data also suggestive a stronger and more westward surge for
the cold air by next weekend...however uncertainty in this time
frame is very large within ensemble data. Dry weather is expected
to prevail until possibly late in the weekend...and even this
potential has decreased with the latest guidance.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
     for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
     for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...23



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000
FXUS64 KOUN 081111
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
511 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO AROUND 25
TO 30 KT. GUSTS MAY ALSO BRIEFLY EXCEED 40 MPH AT OKC/OUN AROUND
18-21Z. SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CLEAR UNTIL EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OVER NW/W OK AND SPREAD S/SE. WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD QUICKLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SUBTLE CAA WILL CONTINUE TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT`S MOVED
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX EARLY THIS AM. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS OK THIS AFTERNOON. MEAN WINDS THROUGH
THE ML ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 40 TO 45 KT ACROSS CENTRAL OK
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CLEAR.
JUST WEST, ACROSS W AND NW OK, CIRROSTRATUS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY INHIBITING MIXING A BIT THERE.
THEREFORE, WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR MOST
OF OK AND A PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH TX. EXPECT A LONGER DURATION
OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS, AND STRONGER GUSTS, ALONG I35 THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AS THE BL
DECOUPLES.

NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUE BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
AGAIN WED AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS. ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT IS THEN ANTICIPATED DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THURS AS A
SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH CAA THROUGH FRI
AM SINCE ITS DEEPER WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH, BUT IT
APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER RIGHT NOW SO LEANED CLOSER TO WARMER
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT (GFS/GEFS/ECMWF) ON MORE SIGNFICANT CAA IMPACTING
THE REGION SAT AM AS THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. LOWERED MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES AS A RESULT. POPS
WERE MOSTLY REMOVED FOR DAY 7 (SUN-MON AM) BUT DID LEAVE A SMALL
AREA OF SCHC IN FOR SE OK WHERE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS ENOUGH
MOISTURE MAY COMBINE WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WAA. OVERALL, THE FORECAST APPEARS
IT WILL REMAIN DRY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

FIRE WEATHER...
NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH AREA WIDE BY LATE
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME
STRONGER SUSTAINED SPEEDS, AND GUSTS, ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE I35
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. MINRH WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS ALONG AND
WEST OF I35 BY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FROM NE TO SW RESPECTIVELY. SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TX, HOWEVER, MAY BRIEFLY CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR WICHITA, CLAY, AND ARCHER COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING WHERE TEMPERATURE CRITERIA IS NOT REQUIRED. EXPECT WIND
SPEEDS TO DIMINISH GREATLY AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  49  29  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         52  30  60  32 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  30  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           50  27  57  27 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     45  27  49  26 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         52  32  55  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR OKZ005>008-010>013-015>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052.

TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR TXZ086-089-090.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ086-089-090.

&&

$$

06/03/03



000
FXUS64 KOUN 081111
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
511 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO AROUND 25
TO 30 KT. GUSTS MAY ALSO BRIEFLY EXCEED 40 MPH AT OKC/OUN AROUND
18-21Z. SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CLEAR UNTIL EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OVER NW/W OK AND SPREAD S/SE. WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD QUICKLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SUBTLE CAA WILL CONTINUE TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT`S MOVED
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX EARLY THIS AM. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS OK THIS AFTERNOON. MEAN WINDS THROUGH
THE ML ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 40 TO 45 KT ACROSS CENTRAL OK
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CLEAR.
JUST WEST, ACROSS W AND NW OK, CIRROSTRATUS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY INHIBITING MIXING A BIT THERE.
THEREFORE, WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR MOST
OF OK AND A PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH TX. EXPECT A LONGER DURATION
OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS, AND STRONGER GUSTS, ALONG I35 THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AS THE BL
DECOUPLES.

NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUE BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
AGAIN WED AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS. ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT IS THEN ANTICIPATED DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THURS AS A
SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH CAA THROUGH FRI
AM SINCE ITS DEEPER WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH, BUT IT
APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER RIGHT NOW SO LEANED CLOSER TO WARMER
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT (GFS/GEFS/ECMWF) ON MORE SIGNFICANT CAA IMPACTING
THE REGION SAT AM AS THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. LOWERED MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES AS A RESULT. POPS
WERE MOSTLY REMOVED FOR DAY 7 (SUN-MON AM) BUT DID LEAVE A SMALL
AREA OF SCHC IN FOR SE OK WHERE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS ENOUGH
MOISTURE MAY COMBINE WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WAA. OVERALL, THE FORECAST APPEARS
IT WILL REMAIN DRY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

FIRE WEATHER...
NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH AREA WIDE BY LATE
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME
STRONGER SUSTAINED SPEEDS, AND GUSTS, ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE I35
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. MINRH WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS ALONG AND
WEST OF I35 BY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FROM NE TO SW RESPECTIVELY. SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TX, HOWEVER, MAY BRIEFLY CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR WICHITA, CLAY, AND ARCHER COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING WHERE TEMPERATURE CRITERIA IS NOT REQUIRED. EXPECT WIND
SPEEDS TO DIMINISH GREATLY AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  49  29  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         52  30  60  32 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  30  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           50  27  57  27 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     45  27  49  26 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         52  32  55  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR OKZ005>008-010>013-015>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052.

TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR TXZ086-089-090.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ086-089-090.

&&

$$

06/03/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 081111
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
511 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO AROUND 25
TO 30 KT. GUSTS MAY ALSO BRIEFLY EXCEED 40 MPH AT OKC/OUN AROUND
18-21Z. SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CLEAR UNTIL EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OVER NW/W OK AND SPREAD S/SE. WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD QUICKLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SUBTLE CAA WILL CONTINUE TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT`S MOVED
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX EARLY THIS AM. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS OK THIS AFTERNOON. MEAN WINDS THROUGH
THE ML ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 40 TO 45 KT ACROSS CENTRAL OK
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CLEAR.
JUST WEST, ACROSS W AND NW OK, CIRROSTRATUS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY INHIBITING MIXING A BIT THERE.
THEREFORE, WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR MOST
OF OK AND A PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH TX. EXPECT A LONGER DURATION
OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS, AND STRONGER GUSTS, ALONG I35 THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AS THE BL
DECOUPLES.

NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUE BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
AGAIN WED AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS. ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT IS THEN ANTICIPATED DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THURS AS A
SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH CAA THROUGH FRI
AM SINCE ITS DEEPER WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH, BUT IT
APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER RIGHT NOW SO LEANED CLOSER TO WARMER
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT (GFS/GEFS/ECMWF) ON MORE SIGNFICANT CAA IMPACTING
THE REGION SAT AM AS THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. LOWERED MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES AS A RESULT. POPS
WERE MOSTLY REMOVED FOR DAY 7 (SUN-MON AM) BUT DID LEAVE A SMALL
AREA OF SCHC IN FOR SE OK WHERE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS ENOUGH
MOISTURE MAY COMBINE WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WAA. OVERALL, THE FORECAST APPEARS
IT WILL REMAIN DRY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

FIRE WEATHER...
NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH AREA WIDE BY LATE
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME
STRONGER SUSTAINED SPEEDS, AND GUSTS, ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE I35
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. MINRH WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS ALONG AND
WEST OF I35 BY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FROM NE TO SW RESPECTIVELY. SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TX, HOWEVER, MAY BRIEFLY CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR WICHITA, CLAY, AND ARCHER COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING WHERE TEMPERATURE CRITERIA IS NOT REQUIRED. EXPECT WIND
SPEEDS TO DIMINISH GREATLY AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  49  29  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         52  30  60  32 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  30  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           50  27  57  27 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     45  27  49  26 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         52  32  55  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR OKZ005>008-010>013-015>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052.

TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR TXZ086-089-090.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ086-089-090.

&&

$$

06/03/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 080946
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
346 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SUBTLE CAA WILL CONTINUE TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT`S MOVED
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX EARLY THIS AM. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS OK THIS AFTERNOON. MEAN WINDS THROUGH
THE ML ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 40 TO 45 KT ACROSS CENTRAL OK
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CLEAR.
JUST WEST, ACROSS W AND NW OK, CIRROSTRATUS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY INHIBITING MIXING A BIT THERE.
THEREFORE, WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR MOST
OF OK AND A PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH TX. EXPECT A LONGER DURATION
OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS, AND STRONGER GUSTS, ALONG I35 THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AS THE BL
DECOUPLES.

NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUE BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
AGAIN WED AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS. ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT IS THEN ANTICIPATED DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THURS AS A
SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH CAA THROUGH FRI
AM SINCE ITS DEEPER WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH, BUT IT
APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER RIGHT NOW SO LEANED CLOSER TO WARMER
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT (GFS/GEFS/ECMWF) ON MORE SIGNFICANT CAA IMPACTING
THE REGION SAT AM AS THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. LOWERED MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES AS A RESULT. POPS
WERE MOSTLY REMOVED FOR DAY 7 (SUN-MON AM) BUT DID LEAVE A SMALL
AREA OF SCHC IN FOR SE OK WHERE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS ENOUGH
MOISTURE MAY COMBINE WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WAA. OVERALL, THE FORECAST APPEARS
IT WILL REMAIN DRY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH AREA WIDE BY LATE
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME
STRONGER SUSTAINED SPEEDS, AND GUSTS, ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE I35
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. MINRH WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS ALONG AND
WEST OF I35 BY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FROM NE TO SW RESPECTIVELY. SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TX, HOWEVER, MAY BRIEFLY CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR WICHITA, CLAY, AND ARCHER COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING WHERE TEMPERATURE CRITERIA IS NOT REQUIRED. EXPECT WIND
SPEEDS TO DIMINISH GREATLY AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  49  29  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         52  30  60  32 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  30  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           50  27  57  27 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     45  27  49  26 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         52  32  55  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR OKZ005>008-010>013-015>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052.

TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR TXZ086-089-090.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ086-089-090.

&&

$$

06/03




000
FXUS64 KTSA 080939
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
339 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Strong winds will prevail across the forecast area today w/
regional VWP data sampling 30-40kts currently which will be tapped
with expected mixing heights. The result will be 35 to 45 mph
gusts across eastern OK and possibly 30 to 40 mph gusts across
western AR. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler than recent
days...however humidities will remain low as dewpoints
fall...with the resultant conditions being supportive of rapid
spread to any wildfires today. Areas of low clouds will pass
across far NE OK and far NW AR today with a few sprinkles
possible...otherwise clear skies will prevail for several days to
come beneath a very dry northwesterly flow pattern.

The forecast remains consistent in keeping the area between much
colder air to the north and east...and much warmer air to the
southwest. Also remaining consistent is the large spread in
potential temperatures...however confidence has increased somewhat
in supporting above normal temperatures for mid to late week.
Latest data also suggestive a stronger and more westward surge for
the cold air by next weekend...however uncertainty in this time
frame is very large within ensemble data. Dry weather is expected
to prevail until possibly late in the weekend...and even this
potential has decreased with the latest guidance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   49  27  50  26 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   48  28  49  28 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   51  28  52  27 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   49  26  50  25 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   41  24  42  21 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   41  23  41  21 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   48  25  49  29 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   42  23  44  22 /  10   0   0   0
F10   50  27  52  30 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   52  29  54  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
     for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
     for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

LONG TERM....07




000
FXUS64 KTSA 080549
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1149 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Northwesterly winds will gust to 35 knots on Monday. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected at all area TAF sites through the
valid period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Nudged up wind speeds and gusts for the remainder
of the night...otherwise forecast is in good shape.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...10



000
FXUS64 KTSA 080549
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1149 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Northwesterly winds will gust to 35 knots on Monday. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected at all area TAF sites through the
valid period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Nudged up wind speeds and gusts for the remainder
of the night...otherwise forecast is in good shape.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...10




000
FXUS64 KTSA 080549
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1149 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Northwesterly winds will gust to 35 knots on Monday. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected at all area TAF sites through the
valid period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Nudged up wind speeds and gusts for the remainder
of the night...otherwise forecast is in good shape.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...10




000
FXUS64 KOUN 080523
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1123 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
08/06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH MOST OF
FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTS 30 TO 40 KTS EXPECTED TO BE COMMON AFTER
15Z...SUBSIDING QUICKLY AFTER 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  31  49  28  57 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         32  53  27  62 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  34  56  28  64 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           28  50  25  61 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     31  46  26  52 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         35  51  31  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

25/11




000
FXUS64 KTSA 080335
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
935 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Nudged up wind speeds and gusts for the remainder
of the night...otherwise forecast is in good shape.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   32  48  28  52 /   0  10   0   0
FSM   33  47  29  51 /   0  10   0   0
MLC   33  50  30  55 /   0  10   0   0
BVO   31  47  27  51 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   29  40  24  44 /   0  10   0   0
BYV   31  40  24  42 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   31  47  28  51 /   0  10   0   0
MIO   31  43  25  46 /   0  10   0   0
F10   33  49  29  54 /   0  10   0   0
HHW   34  52  30  56 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18




000
FXUS64 KOUN 080328 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
928 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER PARTS OF THE FA OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS. THE BREEZY N TO NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY. WITH THE BREEZY WINDS AND
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS HAVE INCREASE LOW TEMPS A LITTLE BIT THINKING
THESE THINGS WILL SLOW DOWN THE DECREASING TEMPS. ALSO ADJUSTED
SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUDS AND HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW
CURRENT TRENDS. ALL UPDATES OUT SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...
08/00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH STRONG NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS AFTER 15Z WILL LIKELY GUST 35
TO 40 KTS MOST TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE MILD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND INCREASE TOMORROW AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG LOWER-
LEVEL WINDS LIKELY SUFFICIENT FOR A WIND ADVISORY SOMETIME FROM
MID-DAY TOMORROW THROUGH THE DAYTIME. THE DRY AIR WILL ALSO
ELEVATE WILDFIRE SPREAD POTENTIAL. THIS WEEK REMAINS DRY WITH
NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW DRIVING SEVERAL DRY AND MILD FRONTS
ACROSS OKLAHOMA. THIS PATTERN DRIFTS EAST DURING THE WEEK AND
LEAVES US UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WARMER WEATHER AND AN UPPER RIDGE
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE WEST THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  31  49  28  57 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         32  53  27  62 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  34  56  28  64 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           28  50  25  61 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     31  46  26  52 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         35  51  31  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

25/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 072339 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
539 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
08/00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH STRONG NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS AFTER 15Z WILL LIKELY GUST 35
TO 40 KTS MOST TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE MILD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND INCREASE TOMORROW AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG LOWER-
LEVEL WINDS LIKELY SUFFICIENT FOR A WIND ADVISORY SOMETIME FROM
MID-DAY TOMORROW THROUGH THE DAYTIME. THE DRY AIR WILL ALSO
ELEVATE WILDFIRE SPREAD POTENTIAL. THIS WEEK REMAINS DRY WITH
NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW DRIVING SEVERAL DRY AND MILD FRONTS
ACROSS OKLAHOMA. THIS PATTERN DRIFTS EAST DURING THE WEEK AND
LEAVES US UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WARMER WEATHER AND AN UPPER RIDGE
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE WEST THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  49  28  57 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         30  53  27  62 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  32  56  28  64 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  50  25  61 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     29  46  26  52 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         36  51  31  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

25/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 072339 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
539 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
08/00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH STRONG NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS AFTER 15Z WILL LIKELY GUST 35
TO 40 KTS MOST TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE MILD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND INCREASE TOMORROW AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG LOWER-
LEVEL WINDS LIKELY SUFFICIENT FOR A WIND ADVISORY SOMETIME FROM
MID-DAY TOMORROW THROUGH THE DAYTIME. THE DRY AIR WILL ALSO
ELEVATE WILDFIRE SPREAD POTENTIAL. THIS WEEK REMAINS DRY WITH
NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW DRIVING SEVERAL DRY AND MILD FRONTS
ACROSS OKLAHOMA. THIS PATTERN DRIFTS EAST DURING THE WEEK AND
LEAVES US UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WARMER WEATHER AND AN UPPER RIDGE
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE WEST THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  49  28  57 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         30  53  27  62 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  32  56  28  64 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  50  25  61 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     29  46  26  52 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         36  51  31  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

25/11




000
FXUS64 KTSA 072333
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
533 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions are expected at all area TAF sites through
the valid period. However, northwesterly winds will gust up to
35 knots on monday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A cold front is moving across the area late this afternoon and
evening, and will bring colder temperatures Monday, along with
strong and gusty northwest winds. A wind advisory may be needed
for parts of the area Monday, but will defer the decision on this
to the overnight shift.

Periodic frontal boundaries will move across the area over the
next week, but the brunt of the colder air will remain to our
north and east. Meanwhile, an upper ridge over the western U.S.
will bring much above normal temperatures to our south and west.
We will be in the battleground between these airmasses, making the
temperatre forecast nearly impossible to pin down each day from
Wednesday on. This continues to be reflected in the ensemble MOS
guidance, with 30-40 degree spreads each day between the warmest
and coldest ECMWF member from Wednesday through next weekend. The
one certainty is that we will remain dry until at least late next
weekend, when low rain chances may return.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10




000
FXUS64 KTSA 072333
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
533 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions are expected at all area TAF sites through
the valid period. However, northwesterly winds will gust up to
35 knots on monday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A cold front is moving across the area late this afternoon and
evening, and will bring colder temperatures Monday, along with
strong and gusty northwest winds. A wind advisory may be needed
for parts of the area Monday, but will defer the decision on this
to the overnight shift.

Periodic frontal boundaries will move across the area over the
next week, but the brunt of the colder air will remain to our
north and east. Meanwhile, an upper ridge over the western U.S.
will bring much above normal temperatures to our south and west.
We will be in the battleground between these airmasses, making the
temperatre forecast nearly impossible to pin down each day from
Wednesday on. This continues to be reflected in the ensemble MOS
guidance, with 30-40 degree spreads each day between the warmest
and coldest ECMWF member from Wednesday through next weekend. The
one certainty is that we will remain dry until at least late next
weekend, when low rain chances may return.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10



000
FXUS64 KTSA 072159
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
359 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front is moving across the area late this afternoon and
evening, and will bring colder temperatures Monday, along with
strong and gusty northwest winds. A wind advisory may be needed
for parts of the area Monday, but will defer the decision on this
to the overnight shift.

Periodic frontal boundaries will move across the area over the
next week, but the brunt of the colder air will remain to our
north and east. Meanwhile, an upper ridge over the western U.S.
will bring much above normal temperatures to our south and west.
We will be in the battleground between these airmasses, making the
temperatre forecast nearly impossible to pin down each day from
Wednesday on. This continues to be reflected in the ensemble MOS
guidance, with 30-40 degree spreads each day between the warmest
and coldest ECMWF member from Wednesday through next weekend. The
one certainty is that we will remain dry until at least late next
weekend, when low rain chances may return.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   32  48  28  52 /   0  10   0   0
FSM   33  47  29  51 /   0  10   0   0
MLC   33  50  30  55 /   0  10   0   0
BVO   31  47  27  51 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   29  40  24  44 /   0  10   0   0
BYV   31  40  24  42 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   31  47  28  51 /   0  10   0   0
MIO   31  43  25  46 /   0  10   0   0
F10   33  49  29  54 /   0  10   0   0
HHW   34  52  30  56 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....05

PLATE




000
FXUS64 KOUN 072018
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
218 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE MILD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND INCREASE TOMORROW AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG LOWER-
LEVEL WINDS LIKELY SUFFICIENT FOR A WIND ADVISORY SOMETIME FROM
MID-DAY TOMORROW THROUGH THE DAYTIME. THE DRY AIR WILL ALSO
ELEVATE WILDFIRE SPREAD POTENTIAL. THIS WEEK REMAINS DRY WITH
NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW DRIVING SEVERAL DRY AND MILD FRONTS
ACROSS OKLAHOMA. THIS PATTERN DRIFTS EAST DURING THE WEEK AND
LEAVES US UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WARMER WEATHER AND AN UPPER RIDGE
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE WEST THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  49  28  57 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         30  53  27  62 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  32  56  28  64 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  50  25  61 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     29  46  26  52 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         36  51  31  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ085-086-088>090.

&&

$$

26/09




000
FXUS64 KTSA 071742
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1142 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A cold front will continue to push across Eastern Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas this afternoon and evening. Southwesterly winds
ahead of the front will shift out of the north to northwest with
gusts 15-25+kt behind the frontal passage. During the
night...breezy west northwest winds will remain common and then
increase again Monday morning with gusts 20-30+kt by the end of
the TAF period. Scattered to broken mid/high clouds should also
continue this afternoon and again Monday...which will help to keep
VFR conditions through the TAF period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A cold front continued to make progress southeast across Southern
and Central Plains this morning. The front as of mid morning was
positioned from Southwest Oklahoma to just west of Osage county in
Northeast Oklahoma and extended northeast through Eastern
Kansas...Western Missouri...Eastern Iowa into Minnesota. Ahead of
the front...southwesterly winds 10-20 mph...dewpoints in the 30s
and increasing high cloud cover were common across Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. Behind the front...dewpoints in
the 20s with northwesterly winds 10-20 mph were being observed.

This cold front will enter into the CWA over the next hour or so
and push through the region this afternoon and evening. Gusty
northwesterly winds in the range of 20 to 35 mph and falling
dewpoints will increase fire weather dangers through this
afternoon across the CWA. Locations mainly along and northwest of
Interstate 44 continue to look like the greater locations for very
high fire dangers as the the stronger winds and lower min relative
humidities should be co- located. Any ongoing wildfires...could
quickly spread with the wind shift behind the front this afternoon.
Thus...will continue with the current fire danger statement
through this afternoon as high temperatures should help to keep
conditions just below red flag criteria.

The colder air seemed to be lagging behind the front...which
should allow for afternoon temps to warm into the 50s with some
low 60s possible across the CWA. Thus...for morning update...have
added minor tweaks to temps/dewpoint/wind grids based on latest
trends and adjusted for the cloud cover. The rest of the current
forecast seems handling well for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  31  48  27 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   60  33  48  28 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   61  31  49  29 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   61  30  47  24 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   56  28  42  22 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   55  31  40  22 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   59  30  47  28 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   58  29  43  23 /   0   0   0   0
F10   60  31  49  29 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   61  32  53  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20



000
FXUS64 KTSA 071742
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1142 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A cold front will continue to push across Eastern Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas this afternoon and evening. Southwesterly winds
ahead of the front will shift out of the north to northwest with
gusts 15-25+kt behind the frontal passage. During the
night...breezy west northwest winds will remain common and then
increase again Monday morning with gusts 20-30+kt by the end of
the TAF period. Scattered to broken mid/high clouds should also
continue this afternoon and again Monday...which will help to keep
VFR conditions through the TAF period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A cold front continued to make progress southeast across Southern
and Central Plains this morning. The front as of mid morning was
positioned from Southwest Oklahoma to just west of Osage county in
Northeast Oklahoma and extended northeast through Eastern
Kansas...Western Missouri...Eastern Iowa into Minnesota. Ahead of
the front...southwesterly winds 10-20 mph...dewpoints in the 30s
and increasing high cloud cover were common across Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. Behind the front...dewpoints in
the 20s with northwesterly winds 10-20 mph were being observed.

This cold front will enter into the CWA over the next hour or so
and push through the region this afternoon and evening. Gusty
northwesterly winds in the range of 20 to 35 mph and falling
dewpoints will increase fire weather dangers through this
afternoon across the CWA. Locations mainly along and northwest of
Interstate 44 continue to look like the greater locations for very
high fire dangers as the the stronger winds and lower min relative
humidities should be co- located. Any ongoing wildfires...could
quickly spread with the wind shift behind the front this afternoon.
Thus...will continue with the current fire danger statement
through this afternoon as high temperatures should help to keep
conditions just below red flag criteria.

The colder air seemed to be lagging behind the front...which
should allow for afternoon temps to warm into the 50s with some
low 60s possible across the CWA. Thus...for morning update...have
added minor tweaks to temps/dewpoint/wind grids based on latest
trends and adjusted for the cloud cover. The rest of the current
forecast seems handling well for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  31  48  27 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   60  33  48  28 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   61  31  49  29 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   61  30  47  24 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   56  28  42  22 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   55  31  40  22 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   59  30  47  28 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   58  29  43  23 /   0   0   0   0
F10   60  31  49  29 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   61  32  53  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20



000
FXUS64 KTSA 071742
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1142 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A cold front will continue to push across Eastern Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas this afternoon and evening. Southwesterly winds
ahead of the front will shift out of the north to northwest with
gusts 15-25+kt behind the frontal passage. During the
night...breezy west northwest winds will remain common and then
increase again Monday morning with gusts 20-30+kt by the end of
the TAF period. Scattered to broken mid/high clouds should also
continue this afternoon and again Monday...which will help to keep
VFR conditions through the TAF period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A cold front continued to make progress southeast across Southern
and Central Plains this morning. The front as of mid morning was
positioned from Southwest Oklahoma to just west of Osage county in
Northeast Oklahoma and extended northeast through Eastern
Kansas...Western Missouri...Eastern Iowa into Minnesota. Ahead of
the front...southwesterly winds 10-20 mph...dewpoints in the 30s
and increasing high cloud cover were common across Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. Behind the front...dewpoints in
the 20s with northwesterly winds 10-20 mph were being observed.

This cold front will enter into the CWA over the next hour or so
and push through the region this afternoon and evening. Gusty
northwesterly winds in the range of 20 to 35 mph and falling
dewpoints will increase fire weather dangers through this
afternoon across the CWA. Locations mainly along and northwest of
Interstate 44 continue to look like the greater locations for very
high fire dangers as the the stronger winds and lower min relative
humidities should be co- located. Any ongoing wildfires...could
quickly spread with the wind shift behind the front this afternoon.
Thus...will continue with the current fire danger statement
through this afternoon as high temperatures should help to keep
conditions just below red flag criteria.

The colder air seemed to be lagging behind the front...which
should allow for afternoon temps to warm into the 50s with some
low 60s possible across the CWA. Thus...for morning update...have
added minor tweaks to temps/dewpoint/wind grids based on latest
trends and adjusted for the cloud cover. The rest of the current
forecast seems handling well for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  31  48  27 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   60  33  48  28 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   61  31  49  29 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   61  30  47  24 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   56  28  42  22 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   55  31  40  22 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   59  30  47  28 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   58  29  43  23 /   0   0   0   0
F10   60  31  49  29 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   61  32  53  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20



000
FXUS64 KTSA 071742
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1142 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A cold front will continue to push across Eastern Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas this afternoon and evening. Southwesterly winds
ahead of the front will shift out of the north to northwest with
gusts 15-25+kt behind the frontal passage. During the
night...breezy west northwest winds will remain common and then
increase again Monday morning with gusts 20-30+kt by the end of
the TAF period. Scattered to broken mid/high clouds should also
continue this afternoon and again Monday...which will help to keep
VFR conditions through the TAF period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A cold front continued to make progress southeast across Southern
and Central Plains this morning. The front as of mid morning was
positioned from Southwest Oklahoma to just west of Osage county in
Northeast Oklahoma and extended northeast through Eastern
Kansas...Western Missouri...Eastern Iowa into Minnesota. Ahead of
the front...southwesterly winds 10-20 mph...dewpoints in the 30s
and increasing high cloud cover were common across Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. Behind the front...dewpoints in
the 20s with northwesterly winds 10-20 mph were being observed.

This cold front will enter into the CWA over the next hour or so
and push through the region this afternoon and evening. Gusty
northwesterly winds in the range of 20 to 35 mph and falling
dewpoints will increase fire weather dangers through this
afternoon across the CWA. Locations mainly along and northwest of
Interstate 44 continue to look like the greater locations for very
high fire dangers as the the stronger winds and lower min relative
humidities should be co- located. Any ongoing wildfires...could
quickly spread with the wind shift behind the front this afternoon.
Thus...will continue with the current fire danger statement
through this afternoon as high temperatures should help to keep
conditions just below red flag criteria.

The colder air seemed to be lagging behind the front...which
should allow for afternoon temps to warm into the 50s with some
low 60s possible across the CWA. Thus...for morning update...have
added minor tweaks to temps/dewpoint/wind grids based on latest
trends and adjusted for the cloud cover. The rest of the current
forecast seems handling well for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  31  48  27 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   60  33  48  28 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   61  31  49  29 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   61  30  47  24 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   56  28  42  22 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   55  31  40  22 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   59  30  47  28 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   58  29  43  23 /   0   0   0   0
F10   60  31  49  29 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   61  32  53  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20



000
FXUS64 KTSA 071742
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1142 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A cold front will continue to push across Eastern Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas this afternoon and evening. Southwesterly winds
ahead of the front will shift out of the north to northwest with
gusts 15-25+kt behind the frontal passage. During the
night...breezy west northwest winds will remain common and then
increase again Monday morning with gusts 20-30+kt by the end of
the TAF period. Scattered to broken mid/high clouds should also
continue this afternoon and again Monday...which will help to keep
VFR conditions through the TAF period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A cold front continued to make progress southeast across Southern
and Central Plains this morning. The front as of mid morning was
positioned from Southwest Oklahoma to just west of Osage county in
Northeast Oklahoma and extended northeast through Eastern
Kansas...Western Missouri...Eastern Iowa into Minnesota. Ahead of
the front...southwesterly winds 10-20 mph...dewpoints in the 30s
and increasing high cloud cover were common across Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. Behind the front...dewpoints in
the 20s with northwesterly winds 10-20 mph were being observed.

This cold front will enter into the CWA over the next hour or so
and push through the region this afternoon and evening. Gusty
northwesterly winds in the range of 20 to 35 mph and falling
dewpoints will increase fire weather dangers through this
afternoon across the CWA. Locations mainly along and northwest of
Interstate 44 continue to look like the greater locations for very
high fire dangers as the the stronger winds and lower min relative
humidities should be co- located. Any ongoing wildfires...could
quickly spread with the wind shift behind the front this afternoon.
Thus...will continue with the current fire danger statement
through this afternoon as high temperatures should help to keep
conditions just below red flag criteria.

The colder air seemed to be lagging behind the front...which
should allow for afternoon temps to warm into the 50s with some
low 60s possible across the CWA. Thus...for morning update...have
added minor tweaks to temps/dewpoint/wind grids based on latest
trends and adjusted for the cloud cover. The rest of the current
forecast seems handling well for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  31  48  27 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   60  33  48  28 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   61  31  49  29 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   61  30  47  24 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   56  28  42  22 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   55  31  40  22 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   59  30  47  28 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   58  29  43  23 /   0   0   0   0
F10   60  31  49  29 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   61  32  53  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20




000
FXUS64 KTSA 071613
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1013 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front continued to make progress southeast across Southern
and Central Plains this morning. The front as of mid morning was
positioned from Southwest Oklahoma to just west of Osage county in
Northeast Oklahoma and extended northeast through Eastern
Kansas...Western Missouri...Eastern Iowa into Minnesota. Ahead of
the front...southwesterly winds 10-20 mph...dewpoints in the 30s
and increasing high cloud cover were common across Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. Behind the front...dewpoints in
the 20s with northwesterly winds 10-20 mph were being observed.

This cold front will enter into the CWA over the next hour or so
and push through the region this afternoon and evening. Gusty
northwesterly winds in the range of 20 to 35 mph and falling
dewpoints will increase fire weather dangers through this
afternoon across the CWA. Locations mainly along and northwest of
Interstate 44 continue to look like the greater locations for very
high fire dangers as the the stronger winds and lower min relative
humidities should be co- located. Any ongoing wildfires...could
quickly spread with the wind shift behind the front this afternoon.
Thus...will continue with the current fire danger statement
through this afternoon as high temperatures should help to keep
conditions just below red flag criteria.

The colder air seemed to be lagging behind the front...which
should allow for afternoon temps to warm into the 50s with some
low 60s possible across the CWA. Thus...for morning update...have
added minor tweaks to temps/dewpoint/wind grids based on latest
trends and adjusted for the cloud cover. The rest of the current
forecast seems handling well for now.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  31  48  27 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   60  33  48  28 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   61  31  49  29 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   61  30  47  24 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   56  28  42  22 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   55  31  40  22 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   59  30  47  28 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   58  29  43  23 /   0   0   0   0
F10   60  31  49  29 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   61  32  53  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....07




000
FXUS64 KTSA 071613
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1013 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front continued to make progress southeast across Southern
and Central Plains this morning. The front as of mid morning was
positioned from Southwest Oklahoma to just west of Osage county in
Northeast Oklahoma and extended northeast through Eastern
Kansas...Western Missouri...Eastern Iowa into Minnesota. Ahead of
the front...southwesterly winds 10-20 mph...dewpoints in the 30s
and increasing high cloud cover were common across Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. Behind the front...dewpoints in
the 20s with northwesterly winds 10-20 mph were being observed.

This cold front will enter into the CWA over the next hour or so
and push through the region this afternoon and evening. Gusty
northwesterly winds in the range of 20 to 35 mph and falling
dewpoints will increase fire weather dangers through this
afternoon across the CWA. Locations mainly along and northwest of
Interstate 44 continue to look like the greater locations for very
high fire dangers as the the stronger winds and lower min relative
humidities should be co- located. Any ongoing wildfires...could
quickly spread with the wind shift behind the front this afternoon.
Thus...will continue with the current fire danger statement
through this afternoon as high temperatures should help to keep
conditions just below red flag criteria.

The colder air seemed to be lagging behind the front...which
should allow for afternoon temps to warm into the 50s with some
low 60s possible across the CWA. Thus...for morning update...have
added minor tweaks to temps/dewpoint/wind grids based on latest
trends and adjusted for the cloud cover. The rest of the current
forecast seems handling well for now.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  31  48  27 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   60  33  48  28 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   61  31  49  29 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   61  30  47  24 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   56  28  42  22 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   55  31  40  22 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   59  30  47  28 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   58  29  43  23 /   0   0   0   0
F10   60  31  49  29 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   61  32  53  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....07



000
FXUS64 KTSA 071613
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1013 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front continued to make progress southeast across Southern
and Central Plains this morning. The front as of mid morning was
positioned from Southwest Oklahoma to just west of Osage county in
Northeast Oklahoma and extended northeast through Eastern
Kansas...Western Missouri...Eastern Iowa into Minnesota. Ahead of
the front...southwesterly winds 10-20 mph...dewpoints in the 30s
and increasing high cloud cover were common across Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. Behind the front...dewpoints in
the 20s with northwesterly winds 10-20 mph were being observed.

This cold front will enter into the CWA over the next hour or so
and push through the region this afternoon and evening. Gusty
northwesterly winds in the range of 20 to 35 mph and falling
dewpoints will increase fire weather dangers through this
afternoon across the CWA. Locations mainly along and northwest of
Interstate 44 continue to look like the greater locations for very
high fire dangers as the the stronger winds and lower min relative
humidities should be co- located. Any ongoing wildfires...could
quickly spread with the wind shift behind the front this afternoon.
Thus...will continue with the current fire danger statement
through this afternoon as high temperatures should help to keep
conditions just below red flag criteria.

The colder air seemed to be lagging behind the front...which
should allow for afternoon temps to warm into the 50s with some
low 60s possible across the CWA. Thus...for morning update...have
added minor tweaks to temps/dewpoint/wind grids based on latest
trends and adjusted for the cloud cover. The rest of the current
forecast seems handling well for now.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  31  48  27 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   60  33  48  28 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   61  31  49  29 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   61  30  47  24 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   56  28  42  22 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   55  31  40  22 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   59  30  47  28 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   58  29  43  23 /   0   0   0   0
F10   60  31  49  29 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   61  32  53  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....07




000
FXUS64 KOUN 071132
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
532 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND
A COLD FRONT. EXPECT GUSTS NEAR 20 TO 30 KT. SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET, BUT STILL EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN AROUND 15
KT OVERNIGHT. VFR WILL APPLY WITH A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO NW KS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER NW OK NEAR SUNRISE AND
CENTRAL OK BY LUNCHTIME. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20
MPH BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THEY WILL ONLY DECREASE A BIT
AFTER SUNSET DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. THEN, BY
LATE MONDAY MORNING AS MIXING COMMENCES, SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15
TO 20 MPH WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE TO AROUND 25 TO 35 MPH DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED MONDAY BASED ON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MEAN FLOW THROUGH
THE MIXED LAYER. WIND SPEEDS WILL FINALLY DECREASE BY TUE AM AS A
SFC HIGH MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL
DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S FROM NE TO SW RESPECTIVELY.

NORTHERLY SFC FLOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY WED AND
THEN BECOME S/SE BY THU AM AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE, BUT IT`S
UNCLEAR HOW MUCH CAA WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR. OVERALL, A DRY AND
BREEZY FORECAST IS STILL ANTICIPATED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  29  50  29 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         59  29  53  29 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  62  32  56  30 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           55  26  49  26 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     56  29  46  26 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         61  35  51  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ085-086-088>090.

&&

$$

06/03/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 071132
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
532 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND
A COLD FRONT. EXPECT GUSTS NEAR 20 TO 30 KT. SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET, BUT STILL EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN AROUND 15
KT OVERNIGHT. VFR WILL APPLY WITH A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO NW KS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER NW OK NEAR SUNRISE AND
CENTRAL OK BY LUNCHTIME. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20
MPH BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THEY WILL ONLY DECREASE A BIT
AFTER SUNSET DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. THEN, BY
LATE MONDAY MORNING AS MIXING COMMENCES, SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15
TO 20 MPH WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE TO AROUND 25 TO 35 MPH DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED MONDAY BASED ON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MEAN FLOW THROUGH
THE MIXED LAYER. WIND SPEEDS WILL FINALLY DECREASE BY TUE AM AS A
SFC HIGH MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL
DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S FROM NE TO SW RESPECTIVELY.

NORTHERLY SFC FLOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY WED AND
THEN BECOME S/SE BY THU AM AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE, BUT IT`S
UNCLEAR HOW MUCH CAA WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR. OVERALL, A DRY AND
BREEZY FORECAST IS STILL ANTICIPATED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  29  50  29 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         59  29  53  29 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  62  32  56  30 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           55  26  49  26 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     56  29  46  26 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         61  35  51  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ085-086-088>090.

&&

$$

06/03/03



000
FXUS64 KTSA 071123
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
523 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Sfc wind gusts between 20-25 kts will be possible at the NE OK
TAF sites behind a cold front that will move through the area this
afternoon. Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail at all sites
through the TAF period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Seasonably warm temperatures will continue today ahead of a cold
front which will move through much of the area during the
afternoon. Winds will turn northwesterly and become gusty
especially across northeast OK. This combination of warm
temperatures and gusty winds will support rapid wildfire spread
potential. Winds will be slow to subside overnight with a further
increase in winds on Monday along with noticeably cooler
temperatures. This will be the glancing shot of much colder air
which will be felt moreso to our north and east...while above
normal temperatures focus to our west.

As the area remains poised along the gradient between the two
temperature anomalies...any subtle shift either direction in the
favored airmasses will result in a sharp change in realized
temperatures. This is seen in the large variance within ensemble
temperature solutions and accordingly the temperature forecast
for mid to late week carries considerable uncertainty. The much
more certain aspect is that a dry forecast will continue into
next weekend. Thereafter the pattern becomes somewhat less
amplified and a more substantial wave along with appreciable
moisture return looks possible with precip chances returning
toward the first of next week.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 071123
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
523 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Sfc wind gusts between 20-25 kts will be possible at the NE OK
TAF sites behind a cold front that will move through the area this
afternoon. Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail at all sites
through the TAF period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Seasonably warm temperatures will continue today ahead of a cold
front which will move through much of the area during the
afternoon. Winds will turn northwesterly and become gusty
especially across northeast OK. This combination of warm
temperatures and gusty winds will support rapid wildfire spread
potential. Winds will be slow to subside overnight with a further
increase in winds on Monday along with noticeably cooler
temperatures. This will be the glancing shot of much colder air
which will be felt moreso to our north and east...while above
normal temperatures focus to our west.

As the area remains poised along the gradient between the two
temperature anomalies...any subtle shift either direction in the
favored airmasses will result in a sharp change in realized
temperatures. This is seen in the large variance within ensemble
temperature solutions and accordingly the temperature forecast
for mid to late week carries considerable uncertainty. The much
more certain aspect is that a dry forecast will continue into
next weekend. Thereafter the pattern becomes somewhat less
amplified and a more substantial wave along with appreciable
moisture return looks possible with precip chances returning
toward the first of next week.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23



000
FXUS64 KTSA 070930
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
330 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Seasonably warm temperatures will continue today ahead of a cold
front which will move through much of the area during the
afternoon. Winds will turn northwesterly and become gusty
especially across northeast OK. This combination of warm
temperatures and gusty winds will support rapid wildfire spread
potential. Winds will be slow to subside overnight with a further
increase in winds on Monday along with noticeably cooler
temperatures. This will be the glancing shot of much colder air
which will be felt moreso to our north and east...while above
normal temperatures focus to our west.

As the area remains poised along the gradient between the two
temperature anomalies...any subtle shift either direction in the
favored airmasses will result in a sharp change in realized
temperatures. This is seen in the large variance within ensemble
temperature solutions and accordingly the temperature forecast
for mid to late week carries considerable uncertainty. The much
more certain aspect is that a dry forecast will continue into
next weekend. Thereafter the pattern becomes somewhat less
amplified and a more substantial wave along with appreciable
moisture return looks possible with precip chances returning
toward the first of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  31  48  27 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   60  33  48  28 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   61  31  49  29 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   61  30  47  24 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   56  28  42  22 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   55  31  40  22 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   59  30  47  28 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   58  29  43  23 /   0   0   0   0
F10   60  31  49  29 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   61  32  53  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07




000
FXUS64 KOUN 070857
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
257 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO NW KS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER NW OK NEAR SUNRISE AND
CENTRAL OK BY LUNCHTIME. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20
MPH BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THEY WILL ONLY DECREASE A BIT
AFTER SUNSET DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. THEN, BY
LATE MONDAY MORNING AS MIXING COMMENCES, SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15
TO 20 MPH WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE TO AROUND 25 TO 35 MPH DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED MONDAY BASED ON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MEAN FLOW THROUGH
THE MIXED LAYER. WIND SPEEDS WILL FINALLY DECREASE BY TUE AM AS A
SFC HIGH MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL
DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S FROM NE TO SW RESPECTIVELY.

NORTHERLY SFC FLOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY WED AND
THEN BECOME S/SE BY THU AM AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE, BUT IT`S
UNCLEAR HOW MUCH CAA WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR. OVERALL, A DRY AND
BREEZY FORECAST IS STILL ANTICIPATED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  29  50  29 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         59  29  53  29 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  62  32  56  30 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           55  26  49  26 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     56  29  46  26 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         61  35  51  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 070553
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1153 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WIND SHIFT FROM
THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE TOMORROW MORNING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KT. SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  29  58  30 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         53  29  57  30 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  53  29  61  32 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           56  25  55  26 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     51  30  56  28 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         53  33  61  35 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/03/03



000
FXUS64 KOUN 070553
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1153 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WIND SHIFT FROM
THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE TOMORROW MORNING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KT. SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  29  58  30 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         53  29  57  30 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  53  29  61  32 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           56  25  55  26 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     51  30  56  28 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         53  33  61  35 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/03/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 070553
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1153 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WIND SHIFT FROM
THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE TOMORROW MORNING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KT. SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  29  58  30 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         53  29  57  30 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  53  29  61  32 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           56  25  55  26 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     51  30  56  28 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         53  33  61  35 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/03/03




000
FXUS64 KTSA 070534
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1134 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions are expected at all area TAF sites through the
valid period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 918 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Nudged low temps down just a bit in a few
spots as current readings are already within
a degree or two of forecast lows. Otherwise
forecast is in good shape.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...10



000
FXUS64 KTSA 070534
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1134 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions are expected at all area TAF sites through the
valid period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 918 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Nudged low temps down just a bit in a few
spots as current readings are already within
a degree or two of forecast lows. Otherwise
forecast is in good shape.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...10




000
FXUS64 KTSA 070318
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
918 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Nudged low temps down just a bit in a few
spots as current readings are already within
a degree or two of forecast lows. Otherwise
forecast is in good shape.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   33  60  31  48 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   31  61  34  48 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   33  61  34  50 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   27  60  30  47 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   28  55  29  41 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   33  56  30  40 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   33  59  32  48 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   32  57  30  42 /   0   0   0   0
F10   33  59  32  49 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   33  62  33  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18




000
FXUS64 KOUN 070221 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
821 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH SOUTH WINDS AND COLD TEMPS BUT OVERALL A QUIET NIGHT. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUDS AND SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO HOURLY GRIDS. ALL UPDATES OUT SOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
07/00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AROUND 12Z AND CLEAR
CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA TERMINALS AND KSPS BY 18Z. MODERATE TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER
FROPA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A DRY WEEK IS FORECAST COMING UP WITH A SERIES OF FRONTS FROM THE
NORTH, BUT WITH LITTLE COLD AIR WITH PASSAGE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING THE FIRST SUNDAY AND FORECAST WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND LOWER LAYERS SUGGEST A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY
MONDAY FOR PART OF OKLAHOMA. A FEW LESS STRONG FRONTS WILL PASS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, BUT WITH MILD AIR. A WARMING TREND STARTS
LATER IN THE WEAK WHEN AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD TO THE WEST
OF OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  58  30  49 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         29  57  30  52 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  29  61  32  56 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  55  26  49 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     30  56  28  45 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         33  61  35  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 070221 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
821 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH SOUTH WINDS AND COLD TEMPS BUT OVERALL A QUIET NIGHT. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUDS AND SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO HOURLY GRIDS. ALL UPDATES OUT SOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
07/00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AROUND 12Z AND CLEAR
CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA TERMINALS AND KSPS BY 18Z. MODERATE TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER
FROPA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A DRY WEEK IS FORECAST COMING UP WITH A SERIES OF FRONTS FROM THE
NORTH, BUT WITH LITTLE COLD AIR WITH PASSAGE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING THE FIRST SUNDAY AND FORECAST WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND LOWER LAYERS SUGGEST A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY
MONDAY FOR PART OF OKLAHOMA. A FEW LESS STRONG FRONTS WILL PASS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, BUT WITH MILD AIR. A WARMING TREND STARTS
LATER IN THE WEAK WHEN AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD TO THE WEST
OF OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  58  30  49 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         29  57  30  52 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  29  61  32  56 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  55  26  49 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     30  56  28  45 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         33  61  35  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 070221 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
821 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH SOUTH WINDS AND COLD TEMPS BUT OVERALL A QUIET NIGHT. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUDS AND SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO HOURLY GRIDS. ALL UPDATES OUT SOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
07/00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AROUND 12Z AND CLEAR
CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA TERMINALS AND KSPS BY 18Z. MODERATE TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER
FROPA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A DRY WEEK IS FORECAST COMING UP WITH A SERIES OF FRONTS FROM THE
NORTH, BUT WITH LITTLE COLD AIR WITH PASSAGE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING THE FIRST SUNDAY AND FORECAST WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND LOWER LAYERS SUGGEST A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY
MONDAY FOR PART OF OKLAHOMA. A FEW LESS STRONG FRONTS WILL PASS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, BUT WITH MILD AIR. A WARMING TREND STARTS
LATER IN THE WEAK WHEN AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD TO THE WEST
OF OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  58  30  49 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         29  57  30  52 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  29  61  32  56 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  55  26  49 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     30  56  28  45 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         33  61  35  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 070221 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
821 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH SOUTH WINDS AND COLD TEMPS BUT OVERALL A QUIET NIGHT. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUDS AND SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO HOURLY GRIDS. ALL UPDATES OUT SOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
07/00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AROUND 12Z AND CLEAR
CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA TERMINALS AND KSPS BY 18Z. MODERATE TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER
FROPA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A DRY WEEK IS FORECAST COMING UP WITH A SERIES OF FRONTS FROM THE
NORTH, BUT WITH LITTLE COLD AIR WITH PASSAGE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING THE FIRST SUNDAY AND FORECAST WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND LOWER LAYERS SUGGEST A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY
MONDAY FOR PART OF OKLAHOMA. A FEW LESS STRONG FRONTS WILL PASS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, BUT WITH MILD AIR. A WARMING TREND STARTS
LATER IN THE WEAK WHEN AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD TO THE WEST
OF OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  58  30  49 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         29  57  30  52 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  29  61  32  56 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  55  26  49 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     30  56  28  45 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         33  61  35  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 070221 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
821 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH SOUTH WINDS AND COLD TEMPS BUT OVERALL A QUIET NIGHT. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUDS AND SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO HOURLY GRIDS. ALL UPDATES OUT SOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
07/00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AROUND 12Z AND CLEAR
CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA TERMINALS AND KSPS BY 18Z. MODERATE TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER
FROPA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A DRY WEEK IS FORECAST COMING UP WITH A SERIES OF FRONTS FROM THE
NORTH, BUT WITH LITTLE COLD AIR WITH PASSAGE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING THE FIRST SUNDAY AND FORECAST WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND LOWER LAYERS SUGGEST A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY
MONDAY FOR PART OF OKLAHOMA. A FEW LESS STRONG FRONTS WILL PASS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, BUT WITH MILD AIR. A WARMING TREND STARTS
LATER IN THE WEAK WHEN AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD TO THE WEST
OF OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  58  30  49 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         29  57  30  52 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  29  61  32  56 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  55  26  49 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     30  56  28  45 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         33  61  35  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/11



000
FXUS64 KTSA 062342
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
542 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the valid period
at all area TAF sites.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The weather will remain quiet through the entire forecast period
as dry northwesterly flow aloft prevails. A few snow flurries may
be possible Monday in far northwest Arkansas, but will not mention
at this time due to low probability of occurrence. Several frontal
boundaries will move through the area over the next week, but the
real cold air will remain well to our northeast through the
forecast period.

Fire danger will be a concern over the next week, especially
Sunday and Monday, with warm temperatures and shifting and
increasing winds Sunday, followed by strong and gusty northwest
winds Monday.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.
Temperatures from midweek on are a crapshoot as the timing of
frontal boundaries become impossible to pin down. The blended
solution is out of phase with most current model data by late in
the forecast period, owing to the unpredictability of the frontal
passages. It is likely that at least one day out of
Wednesday/Thursday will be unseasonably warm, but pinning it down
this far out is not possible.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...10




000
FXUS64 KTSA 062342
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
542 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the valid period
at all area TAF sites.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The weather will remain quiet through the entire forecast period
as dry northwesterly flow aloft prevails. A few snow flurries may
be possible Monday in far northwest Arkansas, but will not mention
at this time due to low probability of occurrence. Several frontal
boundaries will move through the area over the next week, but the
real cold air will remain well to our northeast through the
forecast period.

Fire danger will be a concern over the next week, especially
Sunday and Monday, with warm temperatures and shifting and
increasing winds Sunday, followed by strong and gusty northwest
winds Monday.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.
Temperatures from midweek on are a crapshoot as the timing of
frontal boundaries become impossible to pin down. The blended
solution is out of phase with most current model data by late in
the forecast period, owing to the unpredictability of the frontal
passages. It is likely that at least one day out of
Wednesday/Thursday will be unseasonably warm, but pinning it down
this far out is not possible.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...10



000
FXUS64 KTSA 062342
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
542 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the valid period
at all area TAF sites.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The weather will remain quiet through the entire forecast period
as dry northwesterly flow aloft prevails. A few snow flurries may
be possible Monday in far northwest Arkansas, but will not mention
at this time due to low probability of occurrence. Several frontal
boundaries will move through the area over the next week, but the
real cold air will remain well to our northeast through the
forecast period.

Fire danger will be a concern over the next week, especially
Sunday and Monday, with warm temperatures and shifting and
increasing winds Sunday, followed by strong and gusty northwest
winds Monday.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.
Temperatures from midweek on are a crapshoot as the timing of
frontal boundaries become impossible to pin down. The blended
solution is out of phase with most current model data by late in
the forecast period, owing to the unpredictability of the frontal
passages. It is likely that at least one day out of
Wednesday/Thursday will be unseasonably warm, but pinning it down
this far out is not possible.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...10




000
FXUS64 KOUN 062333
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
533 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
07/00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AROUND 12Z AND CLEAR
CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA TERMINALS AND KSPS BY 18Z. MODERATE TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER
FROPA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A DRY WEEK IS FORECAST COMING UP WITH A SERIES OF FRONTS FROM THE
NORTH, BUT WITH LITTLE COLD AIR WITH PASSAGE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING THE FIRST SUNDAY AND FORECAST WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND LOWER LAYERS SUGGEST A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY
MONDAY FOR PART OF OKLAHOMA. A FEW LESS STRONG FRONTS WILL PASS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, BUT WITH MILD AIR. A WARMING TREND STARTS
LATER IN THE WEAK WHEN AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD TO THE WEST
OF OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  58  30  49 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         30  57  30  52 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  30  61  32  56 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           26  55  26  49 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     31  56  28  45 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         34  61  35  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 062333
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
533 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
07/00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AROUND 12Z AND CLEAR
CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA TERMINALS AND KSPS BY 18Z. MODERATE TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER
FROPA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A DRY WEEK IS FORECAST COMING UP WITH A SERIES OF FRONTS FROM THE
NORTH, BUT WITH LITTLE COLD AIR WITH PASSAGE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING THE FIRST SUNDAY AND FORECAST WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND LOWER LAYERS SUGGEST A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY
MONDAY FOR PART OF OKLAHOMA. A FEW LESS STRONG FRONTS WILL PASS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, BUT WITH MILD AIR. A WARMING TREND STARTS
LATER IN THE WEAK WHEN AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD TO THE WEST
OF OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  58  30  49 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         30  57  30  52 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  30  61  32  56 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           26  55  26  49 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     31  56  28  45 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         34  61  35  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 062333
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
533 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
07/00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AROUND 12Z AND CLEAR
CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA TERMINALS AND KSPS BY 18Z. MODERATE TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER
FROPA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A DRY WEEK IS FORECAST COMING UP WITH A SERIES OF FRONTS FROM THE
NORTH, BUT WITH LITTLE COLD AIR WITH PASSAGE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING THE FIRST SUNDAY AND FORECAST WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND LOWER LAYERS SUGGEST A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY
MONDAY FOR PART OF OKLAHOMA. A FEW LESS STRONG FRONTS WILL PASS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, BUT WITH MILD AIR. A WARMING TREND STARTS
LATER IN THE WEAK WHEN AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD TO THE WEST
OF OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  58  30  49 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         30  57  30  52 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  30  61  32  56 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           26  55  26  49 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     31  56  28  45 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         34  61  35  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/11




000
FXUS64 KTSA 062146
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
346 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The weather will remain quiet through the entire forecast period
as dry northwesterly flow aloft prevails. A few snow flurries may
be possible Monday in far northwest Arkansas, but will not mention
at this time due to low probability of occurrence. Several frontal
boundaries will move through the area over the next week, but the
real cold air will remain well to our northeast through the
forecast period.

Fire danger will be a concern over the next week, especially
Sunday and Monday, with warm temperatures and shifting and
increasing winds Sunday, followed by strong and gusty northwest
winds Monday.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.
Temperatures from midweek on are a crapshoot as the timing of
frontal boundaries become impossible to pin down. The blended
solution is out of phase with most current model data by late in
the forecast period, owing to the unpredictability of the frontal
passages. It is likely that at least one day out of
Wednesday/Thursday will be unseasonably warm, but pinning it down
this far out is not possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   34  60  31  48 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   32  61  34  48 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   34  61  34  50 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   28  60  30  47 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   29  55  29  41 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   34  56  30  40 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   34  59  32  48 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   33  57  30  42 /   0   0   0   0
F10   35  59  32  49 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   34  62  33  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....05




000
FXUS64 KOUN 062023
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
223 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A DRY WEEK IS FORECAST COMING UP WITH A SERIES OF FRONTS FROM THE
NORTH, BUT WITH LITTLE COLD AIR WITH PASSAGE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING THE FIRST SUNDAY AND FORECAST WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND LOWER LAYERS SUGGEST A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY
MONDAY FOR PART OF OKLAHOMA. A FEW LESS STRONG FRONTS WILL PASS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, BUT WITH MILD AIR. A WARMING TREND STARTS
LATER IN THE WEAK WHEN AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD TO THE WEST
OF OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  58  30  49 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         30  57  30  52 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  30  61  32  56 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           26  55  26  49 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     31  56  28  45 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         34  61  35  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

68/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 062023
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
223 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A DRY WEEK IS FORECAST COMING UP WITH A SERIES OF FRONTS FROM THE
NORTH, BUT WITH LITTLE COLD AIR WITH PASSAGE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING THE FIRST SUNDAY AND FORECAST WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND LOWER LAYERS SUGGEST A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY
MONDAY FOR PART OF OKLAHOMA. A FEW LESS STRONG FRONTS WILL PASS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, BUT WITH MILD AIR. A WARMING TREND STARTS
LATER IN THE WEAK WHEN AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD TO THE WEST
OF OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  58  30  49 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         30  57  30  52 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  30  61  32  56 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           26  55  26  49 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     31  56  28  45 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         34  61  35  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

68/09



000
FXUS64 KOUN 062023
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
223 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A DRY WEEK IS FORECAST COMING UP WITH A SERIES OF FRONTS FROM THE
NORTH, BUT WITH LITTLE COLD AIR WITH PASSAGE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING THE FIRST SUNDAY AND FORECAST WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND LOWER LAYERS SUGGEST A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY
MONDAY FOR PART OF OKLAHOMA. A FEW LESS STRONG FRONTS WILL PASS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, BUT WITH MILD AIR. A WARMING TREND STARTS
LATER IN THE WEAK WHEN AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD TO THE WEST
OF OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  58  30  49 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         30  57  30  52 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  30  61  32  56 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           26  55  26  49 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     31  56  28  45 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         34  61  35  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

68/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 061807
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1207 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED THE CLOUD GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO REFLECT
THE INCREASING LOW CLOUDINESS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
HRRR MODEL HAS A GOOD HANDLE WITH THE CURRENT CLOUD
CONDITIONS, WITH THE CLOUDINESS DECREASING TOWARD SUNDOWN.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

AVIATION...
LOW VFR CEILINGS AT OKC/OUN WILL CLEAR BY 14Z. A NORTHWEST
WIND THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEST AND SOUTHWEST DURING
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AROUND SUNRISE...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DECREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA TODAY.

A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL PUSH ANOTHER
FRONT INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY
MONDAY. FREQUENT WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY
FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S...LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE WITH THE STRONG WINDS TO INCREASE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH LESS WIND CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL PROVIDE SOME COOLING TO AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  52  30  57  30 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         53  30  57  30 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  55  30  60  31 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           55  26  53  26 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     51  31  54  28 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         53  34  60  35 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

68/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 061807
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1207 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED THE CLOUD GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO REFLECT
THE INCREASING LOW CLOUDINESS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
HRRR MODEL HAS A GOOD HANDLE WITH THE CURRENT CLOUD
CONDITIONS, WITH THE CLOUDINESS DECREASING TOWARD SUNDOWN.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

AVIATION...
LOW VFR CEILINGS AT OKC/OUN WILL CLEAR BY 14Z. A NORTHWEST
WIND THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEST AND SOUTHWEST DURING
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AROUND SUNRISE...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DECREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA TODAY.

A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL PUSH ANOTHER
FRONT INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY
MONDAY. FREQUENT WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY
FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S...LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE WITH THE STRONG WINDS TO INCREASE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH LESS WIND CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL PROVIDE SOME COOLING TO AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  52  30  57  30 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         53  30  57  30 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  55  30  60  31 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           55  26  53  26 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     51  31  54  28 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         53  34  60  35 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

68/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 061807
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1207 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED THE CLOUD GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO REFLECT
THE INCREASING LOW CLOUDINESS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
HRRR MODEL HAS A GOOD HANDLE WITH THE CURRENT CLOUD
CONDITIONS, WITH THE CLOUDINESS DECREASING TOWARD SUNDOWN.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

AVIATION...
LOW VFR CEILINGS AT OKC/OUN WILL CLEAR BY 14Z. A NORTHWEST
WIND THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEST AND SOUTHWEST DURING
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AROUND SUNRISE...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DECREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA TODAY.

A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL PUSH ANOTHER
FRONT INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY
MONDAY. FREQUENT WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY
FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S...LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE WITH THE STRONG WINDS TO INCREASE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH LESS WIND CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL PROVIDE SOME COOLING TO AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  52  30  57  30 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         53  30  57  30 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  55  30  60  31 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           55  26  53  26 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     51  31  54  28 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         53  34  60  35 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

68/09



000
FXUS64 KOUN 061803
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1203 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
WEST WINDS WILL TURN NORTH EARLY SUNDAY AND INCREASE BY MID-DAY
WHEN A DRY MILD FRONT PASSES FROM THE NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

AVIATION...
LOW VFR CEILINGS AT OKC/OUN WILL CLEAR BY 14Z. A NORTHWEST
WIND THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEST AND SOUTHWEST DURING
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AROUND SUNRISE...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DECREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA TODAY.

A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL PUSH ANOTHER
FRONT INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY
MONDAY. FREQUENT WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY
FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S...LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE WITH THE STRONG WINDS TO INCREASE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH LESS WIND CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL PROVIDE SOME COOLING TO AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  57  30  47 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         30  57  30  51 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  30  60  31  54 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           26  53  26  47 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     31  54  28  44 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         34  60  35  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

68/09/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 061803
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1203 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
WEST WINDS WILL TURN NORTH EARLY SUNDAY AND INCREASE BY MID-DAY
WHEN A DRY MILD FRONT PASSES FROM THE NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

AVIATION...
LOW VFR CEILINGS AT OKC/OUN WILL CLEAR BY 14Z. A NORTHWEST
WIND THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEST AND SOUTHWEST DURING
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AROUND SUNRISE...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DECREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA TODAY.

A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL PUSH ANOTHER
FRONT INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY
MONDAY. FREQUENT WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY
FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S...LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE WITH THE STRONG WINDS TO INCREASE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH LESS WIND CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL PROVIDE SOME COOLING TO AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  57  30  47 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         30  57  30  51 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  30  60  31  54 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           26  53  26  47 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     31  54  28  44 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         34  60  35  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

68/09/09



000
FXUS64 KOUN 061803
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1203 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
WEST WINDS WILL TURN NORTH EARLY SUNDAY AND INCREASE BY MID-DAY
WHEN A DRY MILD FRONT PASSES FROM THE NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

AVIATION...
LOW VFR CEILINGS AT OKC/OUN WILL CLEAR BY 14Z. A NORTHWEST
WIND THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEST AND SOUTHWEST DURING
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AROUND SUNRISE...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DECREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA TODAY.

A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL PUSH ANOTHER
FRONT INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY
MONDAY. FREQUENT WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY
FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S...LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE WITH THE STRONG WINDS TO INCREASE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH LESS WIND CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL PROVIDE SOME COOLING TO AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  57  30  47 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         30  57  30  51 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  30  60  31  54 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           26  53  26  47 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     31  54  28  44 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         34  60  35  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

68/09/09




000
FXUS64 KTSA 061734
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1134 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Mostly clear skies and westerly winds should continue this
afternoon across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
Overnight tonight...light winds are expected to become more
southerly before shifting back out of the west Sunday morning
ahead of a cold front approaching the region. The cold front is
forecast to be near BVO toward the end of the TAF period. Behind
the front...gusty northwesterly winds are expected. VFR conditions
should prevail through the TAF period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
The area of low pressure that drifted southeast through Northern
Texas overnight was positioned over far Eastern Texas per latest
water vapor imagery this morning. With the movement of this
low...the light remaining precip over Southeast Oklahoma had
shifted southeast of the CWA. This has resulted in scattered cloud
cover and variable winds over Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas.

For the rest of today...cloud cover should continue to push off
toward the southeast and exit the CWA this afternoon hours.
Behind the scattered clouds...winds are expected to shift out of
the west northwest at around 5 to 10 mph with afternoon
temperatures a few degrees cooler compared to yesterday. Highs in
the 50s still look reasonable for much of the CWA this afternoon.

Morning update will be to remove morning precip wording and to add
minor tweaks to sky/temp/wind grids based on current trends.
Otherwise...current forecast looks to be on track at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   53  33  60  29 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   55  33  60  32 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   54  33  60  31 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   53  28  61  28 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   52  28  55  28 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   52  33  56  29 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   54  31  59  28 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   54  33  58  28 /   0   0   0   0
F10   53  33  59  30 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   55  33  60  32 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...20




000
FXUS64 KTSA 061552
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
952 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
The area of low pressure that drifted southeast through Northern
Texas overnight was positioned over far Eastern Texas per latest
water vapor imagery this morning. With the movement of this
low...the light remaining precip over Southeast Oklahoma had
shifted southeast of the CWA. This has resulted in scattered cloud
cover and variable winds over Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas.

For the rest of today...cloud cover should continue to push off
toward the southeast and exit the CWA by the mid/late afternoon
hours. Behind the scattered clouds...winds are expected to shift
out of the west northwest at around 5 to 10 mph with afternoon
temperatures a few degrees cooler compared to yesterday. Highs in
the 50s still look reasonable for much of the CWA this afternoon.

Morning update will be to remove morning precip wording and to add
minor tweaks to sky/temp/wind grids based on current trends.
Otherwise...current forecast looks to be on track at this time.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   53  33  60  29 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   55  33  60  32 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   54  33  60  31 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   53  28  61  28 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   52  28  55  28 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   52  33  56  29 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   54  31  59  28 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   54  33  58  28 /   0   0   0   0
F10   53  33  59  30 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   55  33  60  32 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20



000
FXUS64 KTSA 061552
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
952 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
The area of low pressure that drifted southeast through Northern
Texas overnight was positioned over far Eastern Texas per latest
water vapor imagery this morning. With the movement of this
low...the light remaining precip over Southeast Oklahoma had
shifted southeast of the CWA. This has resulted in scattered cloud
cover and variable winds over Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas.

For the rest of today...cloud cover should continue to push off
toward the southeast and exit the CWA by the mid/late afternoon
hours. Behind the scattered clouds...winds are expected to shift
out of the west northwest at around 5 to 10 mph with afternoon
temperatures a few degrees cooler compared to yesterday. Highs in
the 50s still look reasonable for much of the CWA this afternoon.

Morning update will be to remove morning precip wording and to add
minor tweaks to sky/temp/wind grids based on current trends.
Otherwise...current forecast looks to be on track at this time.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   53  33  60  29 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   55  33  60  32 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   54  33  60  31 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   53  28  61  28 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   52  28  55  28 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   52  33  56  29 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   54  31  59  28 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   54  33  58  28 /   0   0   0   0
F10   53  33  59  30 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   55  33  60  32 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20



000
FXUS64 KTSA 061552
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
952 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
The area of low pressure that drifted southeast through Northern
Texas overnight was positioned over far Eastern Texas per latest
water vapor imagery this morning. With the movement of this
low...the light remaining precip over Southeast Oklahoma had
shifted southeast of the CWA. This has resulted in scattered cloud
cover and variable winds over Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas.

For the rest of today...cloud cover should continue to push off
toward the southeast and exit the CWA by the mid/late afternoon
hours. Behind the scattered clouds...winds are expected to shift
out of the west northwest at around 5 to 10 mph with afternoon
temperatures a few degrees cooler compared to yesterday. Highs in
the 50s still look reasonable for much of the CWA this afternoon.

Morning update will be to remove morning precip wording and to add
minor tweaks to sky/temp/wind grids based on current trends.
Otherwise...current forecast looks to be on track at this time.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   53  33  60  29 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   55  33  60  32 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   54  33  60  31 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   53  28  61  28 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   52  28  55  28 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   52  33  56  29 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   54  31  59  28 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   54  33  58  28 /   0   0   0   0
F10   53  33  59  30 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   55  33  60  32 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20



000
FXUS64 KTSA 061552
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
952 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
The area of low pressure that drifted southeast through Northern
Texas overnight was positioned over far Eastern Texas per latest
water vapor imagery this morning. With the movement of this
low...the light remaining precip over Southeast Oklahoma had
shifted southeast of the CWA. This has resulted in scattered cloud
cover and variable winds over Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas.

For the rest of today...cloud cover should continue to push off
toward the southeast and exit the CWA by the mid/late afternoon
hours. Behind the scattered clouds...winds are expected to shift
out of the west northwest at around 5 to 10 mph with afternoon
temperatures a few degrees cooler compared to yesterday. Highs in
the 50s still look reasonable for much of the CWA this afternoon.

Morning update will be to remove morning precip wording and to add
minor tweaks to sky/temp/wind grids based on current trends.
Otherwise...current forecast looks to be on track at this time.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   53  33  60  29 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   55  33  60  32 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   54  33  60  31 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   53  28  61  28 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   52  28  55  28 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   52  33  56  29 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   54  31  59  28 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   54  33  58  28 /   0   0   0   0
F10   53  33  59  30 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   55  33  60  32 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20



000
FXUS64 KTSA 061552
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
952 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
The area of low pressure that drifted southeast through Northern
Texas overnight was positioned over far Eastern Texas per latest
water vapor imagery this morning. With the movement of this
low...the light remaining precip over Southeast Oklahoma had
shifted southeast of the CWA. This has resulted in scattered cloud
cover and variable winds over Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas.

For the rest of today...cloud cover should continue to push off
toward the southeast and exit the CWA by the mid/late afternoon
hours. Behind the scattered clouds...winds are expected to shift
out of the west northwest at around 5 to 10 mph with afternoon
temperatures a few degrees cooler compared to yesterday. Highs in
the 50s still look reasonable for much of the CWA this afternoon.

Morning update will be to remove morning precip wording and to add
minor tweaks to sky/temp/wind grids based on current trends.
Otherwise...current forecast looks to be on track at this time.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   53  33  60  29 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   55  33  60  32 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   54  33  60  31 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   53  28  61  28 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   52  28  55  28 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   52  33  56  29 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   54  31  59  28 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   54  33  58  28 /   0   0   0   0
F10   53  33  59  30 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   55  33  60  32 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20




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