Home > Products > State Listing > Oklahoma Data
Latest:
 AFDOUN |  AFDTSA |
  [top]

000
FXUS64 KOUN 042123
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
323 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LIFT CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.
THE DRIER AIR THROUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER THAT WAS OBSERVED
THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON FROM AROUND OKC SOUTHWESTWARD IS NOW
STARTING TO FILL IN AS ANTICIPATED. STILL EXPECT SNOW AND SLEET
TO INCREASE OVER CENTRAL/SW OK NOW THROUGH THE EVENING COMMUTE.
ROADWAYS WILL BECOME SLICK DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
JUST WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE OKC METRO. TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 1-3 INCHES FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I40 NEAR WEATHERFORD TO AROUND
ELK CITY. SOME PORTIONS OF THE OKC METRO COULD RECEIVE A LITTLE
OVER 2 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET COMBINED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

THE WINTER PRECIP WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN END FROM NW TO SE FROM
AROUND 06 TO 09Z. WE DID CONSIDER EXTENDING THE ADVISORY THROUGH
09Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE OK WHERE SOME HIGHER ICING AMOUNTS (JUST
LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES) MAY OCCUR...BUT WILL PASS THIS ON TO THE
EVENING SHIFT FOR NOW AS IT APPEARS THE TROUGH AXIS/MOISTURE
SHOULD SHIFT SE OF US BY THEN. OVERNIGHT...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO
CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE
TEENS. ROADS WILL REMAIN SLICK FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE THURSDAY.
THE HIGH TEMP FORECAST TOMORROW WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE
LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS...BUT HIGHS WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 40S AND 50S BY FRI AFTERNOON UNDER CLEAR SKIES SO
ANY LINGERING SNOW LEFT ON THE GROUND THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
WILL QUICKLY MELT. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED SAT
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  18  38  22  48 /  80  10  10   0
HOBART OK         16  37  20  47 /  90  10  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  20  36  19  46 /  80  10  10   0
GAGE OK           11  41  21  54 /  20  10  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     14  39  22  51 /  20  10  10   0
DURANT OK         25  37  22  45 /  90  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ019-
     020-022>048-050>052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ004>018-021.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

26/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 042123
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
323 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LIFT CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.
THE DRIER AIR THROUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER THAT WAS OBSERVED
THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON FROM AROUND OKC SOUTHWESTWARD IS NOW
STARTING TO FILL IN AS ANTICIPATED. STILL EXPECT SNOW AND SLEET
TO INCREASE OVER CENTRAL/SW OK NOW THROUGH THE EVENING COMMUTE.
ROADWAYS WILL BECOME SLICK DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
JUST WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE OKC METRO. TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 1-3 INCHES FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I40 NEAR WEATHERFORD TO AROUND
ELK CITY. SOME PORTIONS OF THE OKC METRO COULD RECEIVE A LITTLE
OVER 2 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET COMBINED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

THE WINTER PRECIP WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN END FROM NW TO SE FROM
AROUND 06 TO 09Z. WE DID CONSIDER EXTENDING THE ADVISORY THROUGH
09Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE OK WHERE SOME HIGHER ICING AMOUNTS (JUST
LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES) MAY OCCUR...BUT WILL PASS THIS ON TO THE
EVENING SHIFT FOR NOW AS IT APPEARS THE TROUGH AXIS/MOISTURE
SHOULD SHIFT SE OF US BY THEN. OVERNIGHT...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO
CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE
TEENS. ROADS WILL REMAIN SLICK FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE THURSDAY.
THE HIGH TEMP FORECAST TOMORROW WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE
LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS...BUT HIGHS WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 40S AND 50S BY FRI AFTERNOON UNDER CLEAR SKIES SO
ANY LINGERING SNOW LEFT ON THE GROUND THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
WILL QUICKLY MELT. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED SAT
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  18  38  22  48 /  80  10  10   0
HOBART OK         16  37  20  47 /  90  10  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  20  36  19  46 /  80  10  10   0
GAGE OK           11  41  21  54 /  20  10  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     14  39  22  51 /  20  10  10   0
DURANT OK         25  37  22  45 /  90  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ019-
     020-022>048-050>052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ004>018-021.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

26/03


  [top]

000
FXUS64 KTSA 042113
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
313 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ONGOING WINTER STORM PRETTY MUCH GOING ACCORDING TO EXPECTATIONS
SO FAR...WITH THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR AND THE
RELATIVELY QUICK TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS FALLING ACROSS
MOST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WITH PERHAPS
PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS BEING
THE LONE HOLDOUTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS
INDICATE THAT EVEN AREAS ABOVE FREEZING IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
ARE BEGINNING TO SEE SLEET AND SNOW...EFFECTIVELY SKIPPING THE
FREEZING RAIN PHASE TO THIS POINT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND ALSO
SHORT RANGE PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECASTS/PROBABILITIES ARE VERY
SUPPORTIVE OF THIS. ONE OF THE RELATIVELY BIG CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST THIS EVENING IS TO SPEED THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEPER COLD
AIR AND THE FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET TRANSITION...LEADING TO LOWER
ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...AREAS FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS WILL SEE THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST BAND...WHICH SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE LOCATION OF THE MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. THIS COULD PLACE AN AREA OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF SLEET/SNOW FROM HUGO NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD POTEAU...FORT
SMITH...AND OZARK INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO LAST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THIS
REGION...WILL EXTEND THE WARNING IN FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS UNTIL 4 AM.

ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...
REGION OF PRECIPITATION BACK TO OUR SOUTHWEST IN PARTS OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY MAKE A RUN TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH LARGER
MOISTURE LOCKED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...SOME OF THIS IS EXPECTED
TO FIZZLE AS IT MOVES FARTHER EAST...BUT STILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL HALF TO MAYBE AN INCH OF SNOW BETWEEN
I-44 AND I-40 THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING.

THE SNOW WILL LIKELY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE TOMORROW...AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CLEARS US. THEREAFTER...A DRY FORECAST
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE
WARMUP WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST FRIDAY WITH 50S AND 60S EXPECTED FOR
MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK. SOME SPOTS IN MAY HIT 70 BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   16  35  19  47 /  50   0   0   0
FSM   21  35  20  45 /  90  10   0   0
MLC   20  35  19  45 / 100  10   0   0
BVO   13  34  16  48 /  20   0   0   0
FYV   15  30  14  42 /  80   0   0   0
BYV   14  29  13  42 /  80   0   0   0
MKO   18  35  19  46 /  70   0   0   0
MIO   14  31  17  44 /  40   0   0   0
F10   17  35  20  45 /  70   0   0   0
HHW   23  38  21  44 / 100  10  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074.

AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-
     ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY FOR ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KOUN 041810
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1210 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN UNDER MVFR WITH SOME PERIODS REDUCED TO
IFR THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, EVENTUALLY GOING VFR
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. A MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS OUR TERMINALS... PRODUCING A WINTERY MIX OF BOTH
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT MOST OF OUR TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z,
ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA HAS ALREADY TRANSITIONED TO SNOW.
AFTER 00Z, ALL PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED TO SNOW, WITH
SNOW WINDING DOWN TOWARD 06Z, AND COMPLETELY ENDING BY DAYLIGHT
12Z THURSDAY. HIGH SFC PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY NORTH SFC WINDS THROUGH 12Z, THEN GOING LIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, AND SHIFTING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST BY 18Z ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...
COMPLEX FORECAST CONTINUES. FREEZING LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH
AND NOW EXTENDS ALONG AN ADA-PAULS VALLEY-VERNON LINE. MUCH OF THE
FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP IS LIQUID ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ON THE NORTH EDGE IN HUGHES/SEMINOLE/
POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES. ANOTHER BAND OF PRIMARILY SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN HAS DEVELOPED FROM NEAR ERICK TO CLINTON AND
WATONGA. AND LIGHT ECHOES HAVE BEGUN TO EXPAND IN THE LAWTON/
DUNCAN/ ALTUS/ VERNON/ QUANAH AREAS SPREADING NORTHEAST WITH
INCREASING REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WITH THESE LIGHT
ECHOES. ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS MAY ORIGINALLY BE LIGHT... THERE STILL
MAY BE SOME DECENT IMPACTS WITH ICING ON ROADWAYS. HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE NOT PICKED UP ON
THIS ENHANCEMENT FROM SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA VERY
WELL SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE EVOLUTION. WILL
GO MORE WITH RADAR TRENDS. STILL THINK THIS IS MAINLY AN ADVISORY
EVENT SO WILL KEEP HEADLINES AS THEY ARE. EVEN IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WHERE PRECIPITATION IS LIGHTER... VERY SLICK AND
DANGEROUS ROADS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THAT AREA THANKS TO THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE.

HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS... BUT OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS INTACT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE MOST AREAS TODAY.
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN... SLEET... AND SNOW TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA. BLOWING SNOW COULD ALSO OCCUR IN SOME AREAS WHICH
WOULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CEILINGS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AT SOME SITES LATER TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL
CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING.
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION
TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY CONTINUING TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE
DAY IN MANY PLACES. MEANWHILE... UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH AND
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
FREEZING RAIN... SLEET AND EVENTUALLY JUST SNOW AS SFC TEMPS DROP
BELOW FREEZING AND THE COLD AIRMASS DEEPENS. SOME BANDING COULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SO IN SHORT DISTANCES SOME
LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE HEAVIER AMOUNTS THAN OTHERS AND OTHER
LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE LOWER AMOUNTS... BUT GENERALLY ONE TO THREE
INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SE HALF OF THE FA... WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OF JUST A GLAZE TO UNDER TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
IF THE TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET AND SNOW IS SLOWER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST THEN HIGHER ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY
CONFIGURATION BUT ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE LATER THIS
MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END TONIGHT BUT ROADS WILL LIKELY
STILL BE SLICK IN SOME AREAS IN THE MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND REACHING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SHOW SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS MOVING NEAR/ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME BUT THESE SYSTEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE FA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  21  37  21 /  80  50  10  10
HOBART OK         30  18  36  20 /  90  40  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  37  21  36  19 /  90  60  10  10
GAGE OK           24  11  38  20 /  60  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     26  16  35  21 /  70  30  10  10
DURANT OK         44  23  37  21 / 100  90  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ019-
     020-022>048-050>052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ004>018-021.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

26/03/67



000
FXUS64 KTSA 041705
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1105 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 18Z TAFS... WINTER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ALL
TAF SITES TODAY... ENDING FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING. IFR
CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TIME
PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING... ALONG WITH
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT UPGRADING BENTON COUNTY FROM
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO WINTER WEATHER WARNING... AS THEY ARE
INCLUDED IN THE HEAVIER BAND OF PRECIPITATION THAT IS CURRENTLY
AFFECTING THE REST OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY WITH
RAIN TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND EVENTUALLY SNOW.
MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR FREEZING RAIN IMPACTS WILL BE FSM/MLC.
CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM NW TO SE LATER TODAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN ALL AREAS AFTER 06Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE LEADING EDGE OF COLDER AIR HAS PUSHED THROUGH ABOUT THE NRN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES JUST NOW REACHING THE KS/OK BORDER. EXPECT THE FREEZING
LINE TO PUSH TO NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR BY 12Z...TO MLC AND JUST N OF
FSM BY 18Z...AND THROUGH ALL BUT FAR SERN OK BY 00Z.

WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SPINNING ACROSS THE BAJA...WITH
AN IMPRESSIVE FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE NOTED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.
AREA RADARS HAVE SHOWN A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION OVER
THE PAST 1-2 HOURS ACROSS NWRN TX INTO SWRN/SRN OK...AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AS THE ENTRANCE REGION OF POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION.

FORECAST REASONING CONCERNING PRECIPITATION TYPES HASN`T CHANGED
MUCH. A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NE OK
AND NW WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO SLEET/SNOW LATER THIS MORNING
AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW LATER IN THE DAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS
EVENING. THE HIGHEST SNOW/SLEET TOTALS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS
PARTS OF NW AR...WITH A FEW 4+" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS CARROLL AND
MADISON COUNTIES. FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL HINGE ON WHEN THE
CHANGEOVER FROM SLEET TO SNOW OCCURS...AND SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE LESS
IF SLEET ENDS UP AS THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE. REGARDLESS...A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SLEET WILL STILL RESULT IN IMPACTS ON ROADS.

PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING
ACROSS SE OK INTO WCNTRL AR...WITH A TRANSITION TO FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET HOLDING OFF UNTIL MID-TO-LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY TO
ALL SNOW AFTER 00Z. SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY ACROSS LEFLORE INTO PARTS OF SRN LATIMER AND PUSHMATAHA
COUNTIES.

WHILE ANY ONE PRECIPITATION TYPE MAY NOT EXCEED WARNING CRITERIA FOR
THIS EVENT...THEN COMBINATION OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW AND
EXPECTED TRAVEL IMPACTS WARRANTS THE MAINTENANCE OF THE EXISTING
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NW AR INTO PARTS OF SE OK. CURRENT ICING
FORECAST FOR FAR SERN OK IS PUSHING WARNING CRITERIA...SO HAVE OPTED
TO UPGRADE CHOCTAW COUNTY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. WINTER STORM
WARNINGS ACROSS SE OK AND POSSIBLY WCNTRL AR MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
BEYOND 06Z...BUT WILL ALLOW DAYSHIFT TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS.

THURSDAY WILL BE A COLD DAY...BUT A MUCH ANTICIPATED WARMING TREND
WILL ENSUE LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND AND WELL INTO
THE 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR OKZ073-
     OKZ074.

AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-
     ARZ010-ARZ011.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-
     ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 041705
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1105 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 18Z TAFS... WINTER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ALL
TAF SITES TODAY... ENDING FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING. IFR
CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TIME
PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING... ALONG WITH
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT UPGRADING BENTON COUNTY FROM
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO WINTER WEATHER WARNING... AS THEY ARE
INCLUDED IN THE HEAVIER BAND OF PRECIPITATION THAT IS CURRENTLY
AFFECTING THE REST OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY WITH
RAIN TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND EVENTUALLY SNOW.
MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR FREEZING RAIN IMPACTS WILL BE FSM/MLC.
CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM NW TO SE LATER TODAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN ALL AREAS AFTER 06Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE LEADING EDGE OF COLDER AIR HAS PUSHED THROUGH ABOUT THE NRN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES JUST NOW REACHING THE KS/OK BORDER. EXPECT THE FREEZING
LINE TO PUSH TO NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR BY 12Z...TO MLC AND JUST N OF
FSM BY 18Z...AND THROUGH ALL BUT FAR SERN OK BY 00Z.

WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SPINNING ACROSS THE BAJA...WITH
AN IMPRESSIVE FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE NOTED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.
AREA RADARS HAVE SHOWN A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION OVER
THE PAST 1-2 HOURS ACROSS NWRN TX INTO SWRN/SRN OK...AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AS THE ENTRANCE REGION OF POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION.

FORECAST REASONING CONCERNING PRECIPITATION TYPES HASN`T CHANGED
MUCH. A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NE OK
AND NW WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO SLEET/SNOW LATER THIS MORNING
AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW LATER IN THE DAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS
EVENING. THE HIGHEST SNOW/SLEET TOTALS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS
PARTS OF NW AR...WITH A FEW 4+" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS CARROLL AND
MADISON COUNTIES. FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL HINGE ON WHEN THE
CHANGEOVER FROM SLEET TO SNOW OCCURS...AND SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE LESS
IF SLEET ENDS UP AS THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE. REGARDLESS...A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SLEET WILL STILL RESULT IN IMPACTS ON ROADS.

PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING
ACROSS SE OK INTO WCNTRL AR...WITH A TRANSITION TO FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET HOLDING OFF UNTIL MID-TO-LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY TO
ALL SNOW AFTER 00Z. SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY ACROSS LEFLORE INTO PARTS OF SRN LATIMER AND PUSHMATAHA
COUNTIES.

WHILE ANY ONE PRECIPITATION TYPE MAY NOT EXCEED WARNING CRITERIA FOR
THIS EVENT...THEN COMBINATION OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW AND
EXPECTED TRAVEL IMPACTS WARRANTS THE MAINTENANCE OF THE EXISTING
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NW AR INTO PARTS OF SE OK. CURRENT ICING
FORECAST FOR FAR SERN OK IS PUSHING WARNING CRITERIA...SO HAVE OPTED
TO UPGRADE CHOCTAW COUNTY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. WINTER STORM
WARNINGS ACROSS SE OK AND POSSIBLY WCNTRL AR MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
BEYOND 06Z...BUT WILL ALLOW DAYSHIFT TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS.

THURSDAY WILL BE A COLD DAY...BUT A MUCH ANTICIPATED WARMING TREND
WILL ENSUE LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND AND WELL INTO
THE 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR OKZ073-
     OKZ074.

AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-
     ARZ010-ARZ011.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-
     ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 041649
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1049 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT UPGRADING BENTON COUNTY FROM
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO WINTER WEATHER WARNING... AS THEY ARE
INCLUDED IN THE HEAVIER BAND OF PRECIPITATION THAT IS CURRENTLY
AFFECTING THE REST OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY WITH
RAIN TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND EVENTUALLY SNOW.
MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR FREEZING RAIN IMPACTS WILL BE FSM/MLC.
CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM NW TO SE LATER TODAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN ALL AREAS AFTER 06Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE LEADING EDGE OF COLDER AIR HAS PUSHED THROUGH ABOUT THE NRN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES JUST NOW REACHING THE KS/OK BORDER. EXPECT THE FREEZING
LINE TO PUSH TO NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR BY 12Z...TO MLC AND JUST N OF
FSM BY 18Z...AND THROUGH ALL BUT FAR SERN OK BY 00Z.

WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SPINNING ACROSS THE BAJA...WITH
AN IMPRESSIVE FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE NOTED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.
AREA RADARS HAVE SHOWN A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION OVER
THE PAST 1-2 HOURS ACROSS NWRN TX INTO SWRN/SRN OK...AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AS THE ENTRANCE REGION OF POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION.

FORECAST REASONING CONCERNING PRECIPITATION TYPES HASN`T CHANGED
MUCH. A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NE OK
AND NW WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO SLEET/SNOW LATER THIS MORNING
AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW LATER IN THE DAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS
EVENING. THE HIGHEST SNOW/SLEET TOTALS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS
PARTS OF NW AR...WITH A FEW 4+" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS CARROLL AND
MADISON COUNTIES. FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL HINGE ON WHEN THE
CHANGEOVER FROM SLEET TO SNOW OCCURS...AND SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE LESS
IF SLEET ENDS UP AS THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE. REGARDLESS...A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SLEET WILL STILL RESULT IN IMPACTS ON ROADS.

PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING
ACROSS SE OK INTO WCNTRL AR...WITH A TRANSITION TO FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET HOLDING OFF UNTIL MID-TO-LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY TO
ALL SNOW AFTER 00Z. SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY ACROSS LEFLORE INTO PARTS OF SRN LATIMER AND PUSHMATAHA
COUNTIES.

WHILE ANY ONE PRECIPITATION TYPE MAY NOT EXCEED WARNING CRITERIA FOR
THIS EVENT...THEN COMBINATION OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW AND
EXPECTED TRAVEL IMPACTS WARRANTS THE MAINTENANCE OF THE EXISTING
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NW AR INTO PARTS OF SE OK. CURRENT ICING
FORECAST FOR FAR SERN OK IS PUSHING WARNING CRITERIA...SO HAVE OPTED
TO UPGRADE CHOCTAW COUNTY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. WINTER STORM
WARNINGS ACROSS SE OK AND POSSIBLY WCNTRL AR MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
BEYOND 06Z...BUT WILL ALLOW DAYSHIFT TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS.

THURSDAY WILL BE A COLD DAY...BUT A MUCH ANTICIPATED WARMING TREND
WILL ENSUE LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND AND WELL INTO
THE 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR OKZ073-
     OKZ074.

AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-
     ARZ010-ARZ011.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-
     ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....99







000
FXUS64 KTSA 041649
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1049 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT UPGRADING BENTON COUNTY FROM
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO WINTER WEATHER WARNING... AS THEY ARE
INCLUDED IN THE HEAVIER BAND OF PRECIPITATION THAT IS CURRENTLY
AFFECTING THE REST OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY WITH
RAIN TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND EVENTUALLY SNOW.
MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR FREEZING RAIN IMPACTS WILL BE FSM/MLC.
CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM NW TO SE LATER TODAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN ALL AREAS AFTER 06Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE LEADING EDGE OF COLDER AIR HAS PUSHED THROUGH ABOUT THE NRN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES JUST NOW REACHING THE KS/OK BORDER. EXPECT THE FREEZING
LINE TO PUSH TO NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR BY 12Z...TO MLC AND JUST N OF
FSM BY 18Z...AND THROUGH ALL BUT FAR SERN OK BY 00Z.

WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SPINNING ACROSS THE BAJA...WITH
AN IMPRESSIVE FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE NOTED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.
AREA RADARS HAVE SHOWN A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION OVER
THE PAST 1-2 HOURS ACROSS NWRN TX INTO SWRN/SRN OK...AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AS THE ENTRANCE REGION OF POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION.

FORECAST REASONING CONCERNING PRECIPITATION TYPES HASN`T CHANGED
MUCH. A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NE OK
AND NW WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO SLEET/SNOW LATER THIS MORNING
AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW LATER IN THE DAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS
EVENING. THE HIGHEST SNOW/SLEET TOTALS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS
PARTS OF NW AR...WITH A FEW 4+" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS CARROLL AND
MADISON COUNTIES. FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL HINGE ON WHEN THE
CHANGEOVER FROM SLEET TO SNOW OCCURS...AND SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE LESS
IF SLEET ENDS UP AS THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE. REGARDLESS...A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SLEET WILL STILL RESULT IN IMPACTS ON ROADS.

PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING
ACROSS SE OK INTO WCNTRL AR...WITH A TRANSITION TO FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET HOLDING OFF UNTIL MID-TO-LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY TO
ALL SNOW AFTER 00Z. SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY ACROSS LEFLORE INTO PARTS OF SRN LATIMER AND PUSHMATAHA
COUNTIES.

WHILE ANY ONE PRECIPITATION TYPE MAY NOT EXCEED WARNING CRITERIA FOR
THIS EVENT...THEN COMBINATION OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW AND
EXPECTED TRAVEL IMPACTS WARRANTS THE MAINTENANCE OF THE EXISTING
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NW AR INTO PARTS OF SE OK. CURRENT ICING
FORECAST FOR FAR SERN OK IS PUSHING WARNING CRITERIA...SO HAVE OPTED
TO UPGRADE CHOCTAW COUNTY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. WINTER STORM
WARNINGS ACROSS SE OK AND POSSIBLY WCNTRL AR MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
BEYOND 06Z...BUT WILL ALLOW DAYSHIFT TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS.

THURSDAY WILL BE A COLD DAY...BUT A MUCH ANTICIPATED WARMING TREND
WILL ENSUE LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND AND WELL INTO
THE 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR OKZ073-
     OKZ074.

AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-
     ARZ010-ARZ011.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-
     ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....99








000
FXUS64 KTSA 041649
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1049 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT UPGRADING BENTON COUNTY FROM
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO WINTER WEATHER WARNING... AS THEY ARE
INCLUDED IN THE HEAVIER BAND OF PRECIPITATION THAT IS CURRENTLY
AFFECTING THE REST OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY WITH
RAIN TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND EVENTUALLY SNOW.
MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR FREEZING RAIN IMPACTS WILL BE FSM/MLC.
CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM NW TO SE LATER TODAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN ALL AREAS AFTER 06Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE LEADING EDGE OF COLDER AIR HAS PUSHED THROUGH ABOUT THE NRN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES JUST NOW REACHING THE KS/OK BORDER. EXPECT THE FREEZING
LINE TO PUSH TO NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR BY 12Z...TO MLC AND JUST N OF
FSM BY 18Z...AND THROUGH ALL BUT FAR SERN OK BY 00Z.

WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SPINNING ACROSS THE BAJA...WITH
AN IMPRESSIVE FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE NOTED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.
AREA RADARS HAVE SHOWN A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION OVER
THE PAST 1-2 HOURS ACROSS NWRN TX INTO SWRN/SRN OK...AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AS THE ENTRANCE REGION OF POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION.

FORECAST REASONING CONCERNING PRECIPITATION TYPES HASN`T CHANGED
MUCH. A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NE OK
AND NW WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO SLEET/SNOW LATER THIS MORNING
AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW LATER IN THE DAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS
EVENING. THE HIGHEST SNOW/SLEET TOTALS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS
PARTS OF NW AR...WITH A FEW 4+" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS CARROLL AND
MADISON COUNTIES. FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL HINGE ON WHEN THE
CHANGEOVER FROM SLEET TO SNOW OCCURS...AND SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE LESS
IF SLEET ENDS UP AS THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE. REGARDLESS...A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SLEET WILL STILL RESULT IN IMPACTS ON ROADS.

PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING
ACROSS SE OK INTO WCNTRL AR...WITH A TRANSITION TO FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET HOLDING OFF UNTIL MID-TO-LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY TO
ALL SNOW AFTER 00Z. SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY ACROSS LEFLORE INTO PARTS OF SRN LATIMER AND PUSHMATAHA
COUNTIES.

WHILE ANY ONE PRECIPITATION TYPE MAY NOT EXCEED WARNING CRITERIA FOR
THIS EVENT...THEN COMBINATION OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW AND
EXPECTED TRAVEL IMPACTS WARRANTS THE MAINTENANCE OF THE EXISTING
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NW AR INTO PARTS OF SE OK. CURRENT ICING
FORECAST FOR FAR SERN OK IS PUSHING WARNING CRITERIA...SO HAVE OPTED
TO UPGRADE CHOCTAW COUNTY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. WINTER STORM
WARNINGS ACROSS SE OK AND POSSIBLY WCNTRL AR MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
BEYOND 06Z...BUT WILL ALLOW DAYSHIFT TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS.

THURSDAY WILL BE A COLD DAY...BUT A MUCH ANTICIPATED WARMING TREND
WILL ENSUE LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND AND WELL INTO
THE 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR OKZ073-
     OKZ074.

AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-
     ARZ010-ARZ011.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-
     ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....99








000
FXUS64 KOUN 041610
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1010 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
COMPLEX FORECAST CONTINUES. FREEZING LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH
AND NOW EXTENDS ALONG AN ADA-PAULS VALLEY-VERNON LINE. MUCH OF THE
FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP IS LIQUID ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ON THE NORTH EDGE IN HUGHES/SEMINOLE/
POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES. ANOTHER BAND OF PRIMARILY SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN HAS DEVELOPED FROM NEAR ERICK TO CLINTON AND
WATONGA. AND LIGHT ECHOES HAVE BEGUN TO EXPAND IN THE LAWTON/
DUNCAN/ ALTUS/ VERNON/ QUANAH AREAS SPREADING NORTHEAST WITH
INCREASING REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WITH THESE LIGHT
ECHOES. ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS MAY ORIGINALLY BE LIGHT... THERE STILL
MAY BE SOME DECENT IMPACTS WITH ICING ON ROADWAYS. HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE NOT PICKED UP ON
THIS ENHANCEMENT FROM SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA VERY
WELL SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE EVOLUTION. WILL
GO MORE WITH RADAR TRENDS. STILL THINK THIS IS MAINLY AN ADVISORY
EVENT SO WILL KEEP HEADLINES AS THEY ARE. EVEN IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WHERE PRECIPITATION IS LIGHTER... VERY SLICK AND
DANGEROUS ROADS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THAT AREA THANKS TO THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE.

HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS... BUT OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS INTACT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE MOST AREAS TODAY.
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN... SLEET... AND SNOW TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA. BLOWING SNOW COULD ALSO OCCUR IN SOME AREAS WHICH
WOULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CEILINGS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AT SOME SITES LATER TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL
CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING.
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION
TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY CONTINUING TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE
DAY IN MANY PLACES. MEANWHILE... UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH AND
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
FREEZING RAIN... SLEET AND EVENTUALLY JUST SNOW AS SFC TEMPS DROP
BELOW FREEZING AND THE COLD AIRMASS DEEPENS. SOME BANDING COULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SO IN SHORT DISTANCES SOME
LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE HEAVIER AMOUNTS THAN OTHERS AND OTHER
LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE LOWER AMOUNTS... BUT GENERALLY ONE TO THREE
INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SE HALF OF THE FA... WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OF JUST A GLAZE TO UNDER TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
IF THE TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET AND SNOW IS SLOWER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST THEN HIGHER ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY
CONFIGURATION BUT ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE LATER THIS
MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END TONIGHT BUT ROADS WILL LIKELY
STILL BE SLICK IN SOME AREAS IN THE MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND REACHING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SHOW SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS MOVING NEAR/ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME BUT THESE SYSTEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE FA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  21  37  21 /  80  50  10  10
HOBART OK         30  18  36  20 /  90  40  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  37  21  36  19 /  90  60  10  10
GAGE OK           24  11  38  20 /  60  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     26  16  35  21 /  70  30  10  10
DURANT OK         44  23  37  21 / 100  90  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ019-
     020-022>048-050>052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ004>018-021.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 041610
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1010 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
COMPLEX FORECAST CONTINUES. FREEZING LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH
AND NOW EXTENDS ALONG AN ADA-PAULS VALLEY-VERNON LINE. MUCH OF THE
FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP IS LIQUID ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ON THE NORTH EDGE IN HUGHES/SEMINOLE/
POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES. ANOTHER BAND OF PRIMARILY SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN HAS DEVELOPED FROM NEAR ERICK TO CLINTON AND
WATONGA. AND LIGHT ECHOES HAVE BEGUN TO EXPAND IN THE LAWTON/
DUNCAN/ ALTUS/ VERNON/ QUANAH AREAS SPREADING NORTHEAST WITH
INCREASING REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WITH THESE LIGHT
ECHOES. ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS MAY ORIGINALLY BE LIGHT... THERE STILL
MAY BE SOME DECENT IMPACTS WITH ICING ON ROADWAYS. HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE NOT PICKED UP ON
THIS ENHANCEMENT FROM SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA VERY
WELL SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE EVOLUTION. WILL
GO MORE WITH RADAR TRENDS. STILL THINK THIS IS MAINLY AN ADVISORY
EVENT SO WILL KEEP HEADLINES AS THEY ARE. EVEN IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WHERE PRECIPITATION IS LIGHTER... VERY SLICK AND
DANGEROUS ROADS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THAT AREA THANKS TO THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE.

HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS... BUT OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS INTACT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE MOST AREAS TODAY.
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN... SLEET... AND SNOW TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA. BLOWING SNOW COULD ALSO OCCUR IN SOME AREAS WHICH
WOULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CEILINGS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AT SOME SITES LATER TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL
CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING.
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION
TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY CONTINUING TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE
DAY IN MANY PLACES. MEANWHILE... UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH AND
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
FREEZING RAIN... SLEET AND EVENTUALLY JUST SNOW AS SFC TEMPS DROP
BELOW FREEZING AND THE COLD AIRMASS DEEPENS. SOME BANDING COULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SO IN SHORT DISTANCES SOME
LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE HEAVIER AMOUNTS THAN OTHERS AND OTHER
LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE LOWER AMOUNTS... BUT GENERALLY ONE TO THREE
INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SE HALF OF THE FA... WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OF JUST A GLAZE TO UNDER TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
IF THE TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET AND SNOW IS SLOWER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST THEN HIGHER ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY
CONFIGURATION BUT ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE LATER THIS
MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END TONIGHT BUT ROADS WILL LIKELY
STILL BE SLICK IN SOME AREAS IN THE MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND REACHING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SHOW SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS MOVING NEAR/ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME BUT THESE SYSTEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE FA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  21  37  21 /  80  50  10  10
HOBART OK         30  18  36  20 /  90  40  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  37  21  36  19 /  90  60  10  10
GAGE OK           24  11  38  20 /  60  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     26  16  35  21 /  70  30  10  10
DURANT OK         44  23  37  21 / 100  90  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ019-
     020-022>048-050>052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ004>018-021.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 041610
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1010 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
COMPLEX FORECAST CONTINUES. FREEZING LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH
AND NOW EXTENDS ALONG AN ADA-PAULS VALLEY-VERNON LINE. MUCH OF THE
FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP IS LIQUID ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ON THE NORTH EDGE IN HUGHES/SEMINOLE/
POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES. ANOTHER BAND OF PRIMARILY SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN HAS DEVELOPED FROM NEAR ERICK TO CLINTON AND
WATONGA. AND LIGHT ECHOES HAVE BEGUN TO EXPAND IN THE LAWTON/
DUNCAN/ ALTUS/ VERNON/ QUANAH AREAS SPREADING NORTHEAST WITH
INCREASING REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WITH THESE LIGHT
ECHOES. ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS MAY ORIGINALLY BE LIGHT... THERE STILL
MAY BE SOME DECENT IMPACTS WITH ICING ON ROADWAYS. HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE NOT PICKED UP ON
THIS ENHANCEMENT FROM SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA VERY
WELL SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE EVOLUTION. WILL
GO MORE WITH RADAR TRENDS. STILL THINK THIS IS MAINLY AN ADVISORY
EVENT SO WILL KEEP HEADLINES AS THEY ARE. EVEN IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WHERE PRECIPITATION IS LIGHTER... VERY SLICK AND
DANGEROUS ROADS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THAT AREA THANKS TO THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE.

HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS... BUT OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS INTACT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE MOST AREAS TODAY.
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN... SLEET... AND SNOW TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA. BLOWING SNOW COULD ALSO OCCUR IN SOME AREAS WHICH
WOULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CEILINGS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AT SOME SITES LATER TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL
CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING.
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION
TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY CONTINUING TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE
DAY IN MANY PLACES. MEANWHILE... UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH AND
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
FREEZING RAIN... SLEET AND EVENTUALLY JUST SNOW AS SFC TEMPS DROP
BELOW FREEZING AND THE COLD AIRMASS DEEPENS. SOME BANDING COULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SO IN SHORT DISTANCES SOME
LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE HEAVIER AMOUNTS THAN OTHERS AND OTHER
LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE LOWER AMOUNTS... BUT GENERALLY ONE TO THREE
INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SE HALF OF THE FA... WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OF JUST A GLAZE TO UNDER TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
IF THE TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET AND SNOW IS SLOWER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST THEN HIGHER ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY
CONFIGURATION BUT ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE LATER THIS
MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END TONIGHT BUT ROADS WILL LIKELY
STILL BE SLICK IN SOME AREAS IN THE MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND REACHING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SHOW SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS MOVING NEAR/ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME BUT THESE SYSTEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE FA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  21  37  21 /  80  50  10  10
HOBART OK         30  18  36  20 /  90  40  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  37  21  36  19 /  90  60  10  10
GAGE OK           24  11  38  20 /  60  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     26  16  35  21 /  70  30  10  10
DURANT OK         44  23  37  21 / 100  90  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ019-
     020-022>048-050>052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ004>018-021.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 041610
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1010 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
COMPLEX FORECAST CONTINUES. FREEZING LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH
AND NOW EXTENDS ALONG AN ADA-PAULS VALLEY-VERNON LINE. MUCH OF THE
FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP IS LIQUID ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ON THE NORTH EDGE IN HUGHES/SEMINOLE/
POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES. ANOTHER BAND OF PRIMARILY SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN HAS DEVELOPED FROM NEAR ERICK TO CLINTON AND
WATONGA. AND LIGHT ECHOES HAVE BEGUN TO EXPAND IN THE LAWTON/
DUNCAN/ ALTUS/ VERNON/ QUANAH AREAS SPREADING NORTHEAST WITH
INCREASING REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WITH THESE LIGHT
ECHOES. ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS MAY ORIGINALLY BE LIGHT... THERE STILL
MAY BE SOME DECENT IMPACTS WITH ICING ON ROADWAYS. HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE NOT PICKED UP ON
THIS ENHANCEMENT FROM SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA VERY
WELL SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE EVOLUTION. WILL
GO MORE WITH RADAR TRENDS. STILL THINK THIS IS MAINLY AN ADVISORY
EVENT SO WILL KEEP HEADLINES AS THEY ARE. EVEN IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WHERE PRECIPITATION IS LIGHTER... VERY SLICK AND
DANGEROUS ROADS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THAT AREA THANKS TO THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE.

HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS... BUT OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS INTACT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE MOST AREAS TODAY.
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN... SLEET... AND SNOW TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA. BLOWING SNOW COULD ALSO OCCUR IN SOME AREAS WHICH
WOULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CEILINGS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AT SOME SITES LATER TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL
CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING.
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION
TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY CONTINUING TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE
DAY IN MANY PLACES. MEANWHILE... UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH AND
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
FREEZING RAIN... SLEET AND EVENTUALLY JUST SNOW AS SFC TEMPS DROP
BELOW FREEZING AND THE COLD AIRMASS DEEPENS. SOME BANDING COULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SO IN SHORT DISTANCES SOME
LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE HEAVIER AMOUNTS THAN OTHERS AND OTHER
LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE LOWER AMOUNTS... BUT GENERALLY ONE TO THREE
INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SE HALF OF THE FA... WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OF JUST A GLAZE TO UNDER TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
IF THE TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET AND SNOW IS SLOWER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST THEN HIGHER ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY
CONFIGURATION BUT ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE LATER THIS
MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END TONIGHT BUT ROADS WILL LIKELY
STILL BE SLICK IN SOME AREAS IN THE MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND REACHING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SHOW SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS MOVING NEAR/ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME BUT THESE SYSTEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE FA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  21  37  21 /  80  50  10  10
HOBART OK         30  18  36  20 /  90  40  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  37  21  36  19 /  90  60  10  10
GAGE OK           24  11  38  20 /  60  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     26  16  35  21 /  70  30  10  10
DURANT OK         44  23  37  21 / 100  90  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ019-
     020-022>048-050>052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ004>018-021.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 041610
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1010 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
COMPLEX FORECAST CONTINUES. FREEZING LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH
AND NOW EXTENDS ALONG AN ADA-PAULS VALLEY-VERNON LINE. MUCH OF THE
FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP IS LIQUID ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ON THE NORTH EDGE IN HUGHES/SEMINOLE/
POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES. ANOTHER BAND OF PRIMARILY SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN HAS DEVELOPED FROM NEAR ERICK TO CLINTON AND
WATONGA. AND LIGHT ECHOES HAVE BEGUN TO EXPAND IN THE LAWTON/
DUNCAN/ ALTUS/ VERNON/ QUANAH AREAS SPREADING NORTHEAST WITH
INCREASING REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WITH THESE LIGHT
ECHOES. ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS MAY ORIGINALLY BE LIGHT... THERE STILL
MAY BE SOME DECENT IMPACTS WITH ICING ON ROADWAYS. HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE NOT PICKED UP ON
THIS ENHANCEMENT FROM SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA VERY
WELL SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE EVOLUTION. WILL
GO MORE WITH RADAR TRENDS. STILL THINK THIS IS MAINLY AN ADVISORY
EVENT SO WILL KEEP HEADLINES AS THEY ARE. EVEN IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WHERE PRECIPITATION IS LIGHTER... VERY SLICK AND
DANGEROUS ROADS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THAT AREA THANKS TO THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE.

HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS... BUT OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS INTACT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE MOST AREAS TODAY.
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN... SLEET... AND SNOW TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA. BLOWING SNOW COULD ALSO OCCUR IN SOME AREAS WHICH
WOULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CEILINGS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AT SOME SITES LATER TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL
CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING.
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION
TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY CONTINUING TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE
DAY IN MANY PLACES. MEANWHILE... UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH AND
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
FREEZING RAIN... SLEET AND EVENTUALLY JUST SNOW AS SFC TEMPS DROP
BELOW FREEZING AND THE COLD AIRMASS DEEPENS. SOME BANDING COULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SO IN SHORT DISTANCES SOME
LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE HEAVIER AMOUNTS THAN OTHERS AND OTHER
LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE LOWER AMOUNTS... BUT GENERALLY ONE TO THREE
INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SE HALF OF THE FA... WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OF JUST A GLAZE TO UNDER TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
IF THE TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET AND SNOW IS SLOWER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST THEN HIGHER ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY
CONFIGURATION BUT ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE LATER THIS
MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END TONIGHT BUT ROADS WILL LIKELY
STILL BE SLICK IN SOME AREAS IN THE MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND REACHING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SHOW SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS MOVING NEAR/ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME BUT THESE SYSTEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE FA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  21  37  21 /  80  50  10  10
HOBART OK         30  18  36  20 /  90  40  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  37  21  36  19 /  90  60  10  10
GAGE OK           24  11  38  20 /  60  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     26  16  35  21 /  70  30  10  10
DURANT OK         44  23  37  21 / 100  90  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ019-
     020-022>048-050>052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ004>018-021.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 041610
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1010 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
COMPLEX FORECAST CONTINUES. FREEZING LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH
AND NOW EXTENDS ALONG AN ADA-PAULS VALLEY-VERNON LINE. MUCH OF THE
FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP IS LIQUID ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ON THE NORTH EDGE IN HUGHES/SEMINOLE/
POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES. ANOTHER BAND OF PRIMARILY SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN HAS DEVELOPED FROM NEAR ERICK TO CLINTON AND
WATONGA. AND LIGHT ECHOES HAVE BEGUN TO EXPAND IN THE LAWTON/
DUNCAN/ ALTUS/ VERNON/ QUANAH AREAS SPREADING NORTHEAST WITH
INCREASING REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WITH THESE LIGHT
ECHOES. ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS MAY ORIGINALLY BE LIGHT... THERE STILL
MAY BE SOME DECENT IMPACTS WITH ICING ON ROADWAYS. HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE NOT PICKED UP ON
THIS ENHANCEMENT FROM SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA VERY
WELL SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE EVOLUTION. WILL
GO MORE WITH RADAR TRENDS. STILL THINK THIS IS MAINLY AN ADVISORY
EVENT SO WILL KEEP HEADLINES AS THEY ARE. EVEN IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WHERE PRECIPITATION IS LIGHTER... VERY SLICK AND
DANGEROUS ROADS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THAT AREA THANKS TO THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE.

HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS... BUT OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS INTACT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE MOST AREAS TODAY.
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN... SLEET... AND SNOW TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA. BLOWING SNOW COULD ALSO OCCUR IN SOME AREAS WHICH
WOULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CEILINGS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AT SOME SITES LATER TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL
CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING.
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION
TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY CONTINUING TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE
DAY IN MANY PLACES. MEANWHILE... UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH AND
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
FREEZING RAIN... SLEET AND EVENTUALLY JUST SNOW AS SFC TEMPS DROP
BELOW FREEZING AND THE COLD AIRMASS DEEPENS. SOME BANDING COULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SO IN SHORT DISTANCES SOME
LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE HEAVIER AMOUNTS THAN OTHERS AND OTHER
LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE LOWER AMOUNTS... BUT GENERALLY ONE TO THREE
INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SE HALF OF THE FA... WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OF JUST A GLAZE TO UNDER TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
IF THE TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET AND SNOW IS SLOWER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST THEN HIGHER ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY
CONFIGURATION BUT ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE LATER THIS
MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END TONIGHT BUT ROADS WILL LIKELY
STILL BE SLICK IN SOME AREAS IN THE MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND REACHING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SHOW SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS MOVING NEAR/ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME BUT THESE SYSTEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE FA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  21  37  21 /  80  50  10  10
HOBART OK         30  18  36  20 /  90  40  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  37  21  36  19 /  90  60  10  10
GAGE OK           24  11  38  20 /  60  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     26  16  35  21 /  70  30  10  10
DURANT OK         44  23  37  21 / 100  90  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ019-
     020-022>048-050>052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ004>018-021.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 041139
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
539 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY WITH
RAIN TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND EVENTUALLY SNOW.
MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR FREEZING RAIN IMPACTS WILL BE FSM/MLC.
CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM NW TO SE LATER TODAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN ALL AREAS AFTER 06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE LEADING EDGE OF COLDER AIR HAS PUSHED THROUGH ABOUT THE NRN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES JUST NOW REACHING THE KS/OK BORDER. EXPECT THE FREEZING
LINE TO PUSH TO NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR BY 12Z...TO MLC AND JUST N OF
FSM BY 18Z...AND THROUGH ALL BUT FAR SERN OK BY 00Z.

WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SPINNING ACROSS THE BAJA...WITH
AN IMPRESSIVE FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE NOTED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.
AREA RADARS HAVE SHOWN A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION OVER
THE PAST 1-2 HOURS ACROSS NWRN TX INTO SWRN/SRN OK...AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AS THE ENTRANCE REGION OF POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION.

FORECAST REASONING CONCERNING PRECIPITATION TYPES HASN`T CHANGED
MUCH. A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NE OK
AND NW WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO SLEET/SNOW LATER THIS MORNING
AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW LATER IN THE DAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS
EVENING. THE HIGHEST SNOW/SLEET TOTALS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS
PARTS OF NW AR...WITH A FEW 4+" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS CARROLL AND
MADISON COUNTIES. FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL HINGE ON WHEN THE
CHANGEOVER FROM SLEET TO SNOW OCCURS...AND SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE LESS
IF SLEET ENDS UP AS THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE. REGARDLESS...A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SLEET WILL STILL RESULT IN IMPACTS ON ROADS.

PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING
ACROSS SE OK INTO WCNTRL AR...WITH A TRANSITION TO FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET HOLDING OFF UNTIL MID-TO-LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY TO
ALL SNOW AFTER 00Z. SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY ACROSS LEFLORE INTO PARTS OF SRN LATIMER AND PUSHMATAHA
COUNTIES.

WHILE ANY ONE PRECIPITATION TYPE MAY NOT EXCEED WARNING CRITERIA FOR
THIS EVENT...THEN COMBINATION OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW AND
EXPECTED TRAVEL IMPACTS WARRANTS THE MAINTENANCE OF THE EXISTING
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NW AR INTO PARTS OF SE OK. CURRENT ICING
FORECAST FOR FAR SERN OK IS PUSHING WARNING CRITERIA...SO HAVE OPTED
TO UPGRADE CHOCTAW COUNTY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. WINTER STORM
WARNINGS ACROSS SE OK AND POSSIBLY WCNTRL AR MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
BEYOND 06Z...BUT WILL ALLOW DAYSHIFT TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS.

THURSDAY WILL BE A COLD DAY...BUT A MUCH ANTICIPATED WARMING TREND
WILL ENSUE LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND AND WELL INTO
THE 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ073-OKZ074.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR ARZ001.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...14








000
FXUS64 KTSA 041139
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
539 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY WITH
RAIN TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND EVENTUALLY SNOW.
MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR FREEZING RAIN IMPACTS WILL BE FSM/MLC.
CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM NW TO SE LATER TODAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN ALL AREAS AFTER 06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE LEADING EDGE OF COLDER AIR HAS PUSHED THROUGH ABOUT THE NRN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES JUST NOW REACHING THE KS/OK BORDER. EXPECT THE FREEZING
LINE TO PUSH TO NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR BY 12Z...TO MLC AND JUST N OF
FSM BY 18Z...AND THROUGH ALL BUT FAR SERN OK BY 00Z.

WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SPINNING ACROSS THE BAJA...WITH
AN IMPRESSIVE FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE NOTED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.
AREA RADARS HAVE SHOWN A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION OVER
THE PAST 1-2 HOURS ACROSS NWRN TX INTO SWRN/SRN OK...AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AS THE ENTRANCE REGION OF POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION.

FORECAST REASONING CONCERNING PRECIPITATION TYPES HASN`T CHANGED
MUCH. A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NE OK
AND NW WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO SLEET/SNOW LATER THIS MORNING
AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW LATER IN THE DAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS
EVENING. THE HIGHEST SNOW/SLEET TOTALS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS
PARTS OF NW AR...WITH A FEW 4+" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS CARROLL AND
MADISON COUNTIES. FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL HINGE ON WHEN THE
CHANGEOVER FROM SLEET TO SNOW OCCURS...AND SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE LESS
IF SLEET ENDS UP AS THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE. REGARDLESS...A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SLEET WILL STILL RESULT IN IMPACTS ON ROADS.

PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING
ACROSS SE OK INTO WCNTRL AR...WITH A TRANSITION TO FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET HOLDING OFF UNTIL MID-TO-LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY TO
ALL SNOW AFTER 00Z. SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY ACROSS LEFLORE INTO PARTS OF SRN LATIMER AND PUSHMATAHA
COUNTIES.

WHILE ANY ONE PRECIPITATION TYPE MAY NOT EXCEED WARNING CRITERIA FOR
THIS EVENT...THEN COMBINATION OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW AND
EXPECTED TRAVEL IMPACTS WARRANTS THE MAINTENANCE OF THE EXISTING
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NW AR INTO PARTS OF SE OK. CURRENT ICING
FORECAST FOR FAR SERN OK IS PUSHING WARNING CRITERIA...SO HAVE OPTED
TO UPGRADE CHOCTAW COUNTY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. WINTER STORM
WARNINGS ACROSS SE OK AND POSSIBLY WCNTRL AR MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
BEYOND 06Z...BUT WILL ALLOW DAYSHIFT TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS.

THURSDAY WILL BE A COLD DAY...BUT A MUCH ANTICIPATED WARMING TREND
WILL ENSUE LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND AND WELL INTO
THE 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ073-OKZ074.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR ARZ001.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...14







000
FXUS64 KOUN 041114
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
514 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE MOST AREAS TODAY.
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN... SLEET... AND SNOW TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA. BLOWING SNOW COULD ALSO OCCUR IN SOME AREAS WHICH
WOULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CEILINGS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AT SOME SITES LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL
CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING.
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION
TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY CONTINUING TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE
DAY IN MANY PLACES. MEANWHILE... UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH AND
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
FREEZING RAIN... SLEET AND EVENTUALLY JUST SNOW AS SFC TEMPS DROP
BELOW FREEZING AND THE COLD AIRMASS DEEPENS. SOME BANDING COULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SO IN SHORT DISTANCES SOME
LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE HEAVIER AMOUNTS THAN OTHERS AND OTHER
LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE LOWER AMOUNTS... BUT GENERALLY ONE TO THREE
INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SE HALF OF THE FA... WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OF JUST A GLAZE TO UNDER TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
IF THE TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET AND SNOW IS SLOWER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST THEN HIGHER ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY
CONFIGURATION BUT ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE LATER THIS
MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END TONIGHT BUT ROADS WILL LIKELY
STILL BE SLICK IN SOME AREAS IN THE MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND REACHING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SHOW SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS MOVING NEAR/ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME BUT THESE SYSTEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE FA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  21  37  21 /  90  50  10  10
HOBART OK         30  18  36  20 /  80  40  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  37  21  36  19 /  90  60  10  10
GAGE OK           24  11  38  20 /  60  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     26  16  35  21 /  70  30  10  10
DURANT OK         44  23  37  21 / 100  90  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ019-
     020-022>048-050>052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ004>018-021.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

09/25/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 041114
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
514 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE MOST AREAS TODAY.
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN... SLEET... AND SNOW TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA. BLOWING SNOW COULD ALSO OCCUR IN SOME AREAS WHICH
WOULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CEILINGS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AT SOME SITES LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL
CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING.
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION
TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY CONTINUING TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE
DAY IN MANY PLACES. MEANWHILE... UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH AND
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
FREEZING RAIN... SLEET AND EVENTUALLY JUST SNOW AS SFC TEMPS DROP
BELOW FREEZING AND THE COLD AIRMASS DEEPENS. SOME BANDING COULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SO IN SHORT DISTANCES SOME
LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE HEAVIER AMOUNTS THAN OTHERS AND OTHER
LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE LOWER AMOUNTS... BUT GENERALLY ONE TO THREE
INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SE HALF OF THE FA... WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OF JUST A GLAZE TO UNDER TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
IF THE TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET AND SNOW IS SLOWER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST THEN HIGHER ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY
CONFIGURATION BUT ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE LATER THIS
MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END TONIGHT BUT ROADS WILL LIKELY
STILL BE SLICK IN SOME AREAS IN THE MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND REACHING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SHOW SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS MOVING NEAR/ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME BUT THESE SYSTEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE FA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  21  37  21 /  90  50  10  10
HOBART OK         30  18  36  20 /  80  40  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  37  21  36  19 /  90  60  10  10
GAGE OK           24  11  38  20 /  60  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     26  16  35  21 /  70  30  10  10
DURANT OK         44  23  37  21 / 100  90  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ019-
     020-022>048-050>052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ004>018-021.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

09/25/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 041114
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
514 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE MOST AREAS TODAY.
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN... SLEET... AND SNOW TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA. BLOWING SNOW COULD ALSO OCCUR IN SOME AREAS WHICH
WOULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CEILINGS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AT SOME SITES LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL
CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING.
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION
TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY CONTINUING TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE
DAY IN MANY PLACES. MEANWHILE... UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH AND
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
FREEZING RAIN... SLEET AND EVENTUALLY JUST SNOW AS SFC TEMPS DROP
BELOW FREEZING AND THE COLD AIRMASS DEEPENS. SOME BANDING COULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SO IN SHORT DISTANCES SOME
LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE HEAVIER AMOUNTS THAN OTHERS AND OTHER
LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE LOWER AMOUNTS... BUT GENERALLY ONE TO THREE
INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SE HALF OF THE FA... WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OF JUST A GLAZE TO UNDER TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
IF THE TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET AND SNOW IS SLOWER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST THEN HIGHER ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY
CONFIGURATION BUT ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE LATER THIS
MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END TONIGHT BUT ROADS WILL LIKELY
STILL BE SLICK IN SOME AREAS IN THE MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND REACHING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SHOW SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS MOVING NEAR/ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME BUT THESE SYSTEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE FA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  21  37  21 /  90  50  10  10
HOBART OK         30  18  36  20 /  80  40  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  37  21  36  19 /  90  60  10  10
GAGE OK           24  11  38  20 /  60  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     26  16  35  21 /  70  30  10  10
DURANT OK         44  23  37  21 / 100  90  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ019-
     020-022>048-050>052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ004>018-021.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

09/25/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 041114
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
514 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE MOST AREAS TODAY.
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN... SLEET... AND SNOW TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA. BLOWING SNOW COULD ALSO OCCUR IN SOME AREAS WHICH
WOULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CEILINGS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AT SOME SITES LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL
CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING.
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION
TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY CONTINUING TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE
DAY IN MANY PLACES. MEANWHILE... UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH AND
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
FREEZING RAIN... SLEET AND EVENTUALLY JUST SNOW AS SFC TEMPS DROP
BELOW FREEZING AND THE COLD AIRMASS DEEPENS. SOME BANDING COULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SO IN SHORT DISTANCES SOME
LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE HEAVIER AMOUNTS THAN OTHERS AND OTHER
LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE LOWER AMOUNTS... BUT GENERALLY ONE TO THREE
INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SE HALF OF THE FA... WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OF JUST A GLAZE TO UNDER TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
IF THE TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET AND SNOW IS SLOWER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST THEN HIGHER ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY
CONFIGURATION BUT ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE LATER THIS
MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END TONIGHT BUT ROADS WILL LIKELY
STILL BE SLICK IN SOME AREAS IN THE MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND REACHING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SHOW SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS MOVING NEAR/ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME BUT THESE SYSTEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE FA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  21  37  21 /  90  50  10  10
HOBART OK         30  18  36  20 /  80  40  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  37  21  36  19 /  90  60  10  10
GAGE OK           24  11  38  20 /  60  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     26  16  35  21 /  70  30  10  10
DURANT OK         44  23  37  21 / 100  90  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ019-
     020-022>048-050>052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ004>018-021.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

09/25/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 041011
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
411 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL
CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING.
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION
TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY CONTINUING TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE
DAY IN MANY PLACES. MEANWHILE... UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH AND
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
FREEZING RAIN... SLEET AND EVENTUALLY JUST SNOW AS SFC TEMPS DROP
BELOW FREEZING AND THE COLD AIRMASS DEEPENS. SOME BANDING COULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SO IN SHORT DISTANCES SOME
LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE HEAVIER AMOUNTS THAN OTHERS AND OTHER
LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE LOWER AMOUNTS... BUT GENERALLY ONE TO THREE
INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SE HALF OF THE FA... WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OF JUST A GLAZE TO UNDER TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
IF THE TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET AND SNOW IS SLOWER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST THEN HIGHER ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY
CONFIGURATION BUT ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE LATER THIS
MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END TONIGHT BUT ROADS WILL LIKELY
STILL BE SLICK IN SOME AREAS IN THE MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND REACHING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SHOW SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS MOVING NEAR/ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME BUT THESE SYSTEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE FA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  21  37  21 /  90  50  10  10
HOBART OK         30  18  36  20 /  80  40  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  37  21  36  19 /  90  60  10  10
GAGE OK           24  11  38  20 /  60  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     26  16  35  21 /  70  30  10  10
DURANT OK         44  23  37  21 / 100  90  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ019-
     020-022>048-050>052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ004>018-021.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

09/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 041011
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
411 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL
CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING.
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION
TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY CONTINUING TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE
DAY IN MANY PLACES. MEANWHILE... UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH AND
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
FREEZING RAIN... SLEET AND EVENTUALLY JUST SNOW AS SFC TEMPS DROP
BELOW FREEZING AND THE COLD AIRMASS DEEPENS. SOME BANDING COULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SO IN SHORT DISTANCES SOME
LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE HEAVIER AMOUNTS THAN OTHERS AND OTHER
LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE LOWER AMOUNTS... BUT GENERALLY ONE TO THREE
INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SE HALF OF THE FA... WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OF JUST A GLAZE TO UNDER TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
IF THE TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET AND SNOW IS SLOWER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST THEN HIGHER ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY
CONFIGURATION BUT ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE LATER THIS
MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END TONIGHT BUT ROADS WILL LIKELY
STILL BE SLICK IN SOME AREAS IN THE MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND REACHING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SHOW SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS MOVING NEAR/ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME BUT THESE SYSTEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE FA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  21  37  21 /  90  50  10  10
HOBART OK         30  18  36  20 /  80  40  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  37  21  36  19 /  90  60  10  10
GAGE OK           24  11  38  20 /  60  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     26  16  35  21 /  70  30  10  10
DURANT OK         44  23  37  21 / 100  90  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ019-
     020-022>048-050>052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ004>018-021.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

09/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 041011
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
411 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL
CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING.
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION
TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY CONTINUING TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE
DAY IN MANY PLACES. MEANWHILE... UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH AND
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
FREEZING RAIN... SLEET AND EVENTUALLY JUST SNOW AS SFC TEMPS DROP
BELOW FREEZING AND THE COLD AIRMASS DEEPENS. SOME BANDING COULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SO IN SHORT DISTANCES SOME
LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE HEAVIER AMOUNTS THAN OTHERS AND OTHER
LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE LOWER AMOUNTS... BUT GENERALLY ONE TO THREE
INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SE HALF OF THE FA... WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OF JUST A GLAZE TO UNDER TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
IF THE TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET AND SNOW IS SLOWER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST THEN HIGHER ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY
CONFIGURATION BUT ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE LATER THIS
MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END TONIGHT BUT ROADS WILL LIKELY
STILL BE SLICK IN SOME AREAS IN THE MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND REACHING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SHOW SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS MOVING NEAR/ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME BUT THESE SYSTEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE FA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  21  37  21 /  90  50  10  10
HOBART OK         30  18  36  20 /  80  40  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  37  21  36  19 /  90  60  10  10
GAGE OK           24  11  38  20 /  60  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     26  16  35  21 /  70  30  10  10
DURANT OK         44  23  37  21 / 100  90  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ019-
     020-022>048-050>052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ004>018-021.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

09/25



000
FXUS64 KTSA 040956
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
356 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE LEADING EDGE OF COLDER AIR HAS PUSHED THROUGH ABOUT THE NRN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES JUST NOW REACHING THE KS/OK BORDER. EXPECT THE FREEZING
LINE TO PUSH TO NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR BY 12Z...TO MLC AND JUST N OF
FSM BY 18Z...AND THROUGH ALL BUT FAR SERN OK BY 00Z.

WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SPINNING ACROSS THE BAJA...WITH
AN IMPRESSIVE FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE NOTED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.
AREA RADARS HAVE SHOWN A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION OVER
THE PAST 1-2 HOURS ACROSS NWRN TX INTO SWRN/SRN OK...AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AS THE ENTRANCE REGION OF POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION.

FORECAST REASONING CONCERNING PRECIPITATION TYPES HASN`T CHANGED
MUCH. A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NE OK
AND NW WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO SLEET/SNOW LATER THIS MORNING
AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW LATER IN THE DAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS
EVENING. THE HIGHEST SNOW/SLEET TOTALS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS
PARTS OF NW AR...WITH A FEW 4+" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS CARROLL AND
MADISON COUNTIES. FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL HINGE ON WHEN THE
CHANGEOVER FROM SLEET TO SNOW OCCURS...AND SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE LESS
IF SLEET ENDS UP AS THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE. REGARDLESS...A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SLEET WILL STILL RESULT IN IMPACTS ON ROADS.

PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING
ACROSS SE OK INTO WCNTRL AR...WITH A TRANSITION TO FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET HOLDING OFF UNTIL MID-TO-LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY TO
ALL SNOW AFTER 00Z. SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY ACROSS LEFLORE INTO PARTS OF SRN LATIMER AND PUSHMATAHA
COUNTIES.

WHILE ANY ONE PRECIPITATION TYPE MAY NOT EXCEED WARNING CRITERIA FOR
THIS EVENT...THEN COMBINATION OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW AND
EXPECTED TRAVEL IMPACTS WARRANTS THE MAINTENANCE OF THE EXISTING
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NW AR INTO PARTS OF SE OK. CURRENT ICING
FORECAST FOR FAR SERN OK IS PUSHING WARNING CRITERIA...SO HAVE OPTED
TO UPGRADE CHOCTAW COUNTY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. WINTER STORM
WARNINGS ACROSS SE OK AND POSSIBLY WCNTRL AR MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
BEYOND 06Z...BUT WILL ALLOW DAYSHIFT TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS.

THURSDAY WILL BE A COLD DAY...BUT A MUCH ANTICIPATED WARMING TREND
WILL ENSUE LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND AND WELL INTO
THE 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   30  15  34  18 / 100  50  10   0
FSM   43  21  34  20 / 100  90  10   0
MLC   40  22  35  16 / 100  90  10   0
BVO   27  12  35  13 /  90  30   0   0
FYV   32  16  31  12 / 100  90  10   0
BYV   31  14  30  14 / 100  80  10   0
MKO   36  17  33  16 / 100  80  10   0
MIO   28  12  32  18 / 100  30  10   0
F10   34  18  34  19 / 100  80  10   0
HHW   49  23  38  21 / 100 100  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ073-OKZ074.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR ARZ001.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 040956
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
356 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE LEADING EDGE OF COLDER AIR HAS PUSHED THROUGH ABOUT THE NRN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES JUST NOW REACHING THE KS/OK BORDER. EXPECT THE FREEZING
LINE TO PUSH TO NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR BY 12Z...TO MLC AND JUST N OF
FSM BY 18Z...AND THROUGH ALL BUT FAR SERN OK BY 00Z.

WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SPINNING ACROSS THE BAJA...WITH
AN IMPRESSIVE FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE NOTED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.
AREA RADARS HAVE SHOWN A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION OVER
THE PAST 1-2 HOURS ACROSS NWRN TX INTO SWRN/SRN OK...AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AS THE ENTRANCE REGION OF POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION.

FORECAST REASONING CONCERNING PRECIPITATION TYPES HASN`T CHANGED
MUCH. A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NE OK
AND NW WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO SLEET/SNOW LATER THIS MORNING
AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW LATER IN THE DAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS
EVENING. THE HIGHEST SNOW/SLEET TOTALS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS
PARTS OF NW AR...WITH A FEW 4+" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS CARROLL AND
MADISON COUNTIES. FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL HINGE ON WHEN THE
CHANGEOVER FROM SLEET TO SNOW OCCURS...AND SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE LESS
IF SLEET ENDS UP AS THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE. REGARDLESS...A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SLEET WILL STILL RESULT IN IMPACTS ON ROADS.

PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING
ACROSS SE OK INTO WCNTRL AR...WITH A TRANSITION TO FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET HOLDING OFF UNTIL MID-TO-LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY TO
ALL SNOW AFTER 00Z. SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY ACROSS LEFLORE INTO PARTS OF SRN LATIMER AND PUSHMATAHA
COUNTIES.

WHILE ANY ONE PRECIPITATION TYPE MAY NOT EXCEED WARNING CRITERIA FOR
THIS EVENT...THEN COMBINATION OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW AND
EXPECTED TRAVEL IMPACTS WARRANTS THE MAINTENANCE OF THE EXISTING
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NW AR INTO PARTS OF SE OK. CURRENT ICING
FORECAST FOR FAR SERN OK IS PUSHING WARNING CRITERIA...SO HAVE OPTED
TO UPGRADE CHOCTAW COUNTY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. WINTER STORM
WARNINGS ACROSS SE OK AND POSSIBLY WCNTRL AR MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
BEYOND 06Z...BUT WILL ALLOW DAYSHIFT TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS.

THURSDAY WILL BE A COLD DAY...BUT A MUCH ANTICIPATED WARMING TREND
WILL ENSUE LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND AND WELL INTO
THE 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   30  15  34  18 / 100  50  10   0
FSM   43  21  34  20 / 100  90  10   0
MLC   40  22  35  16 / 100  90  10   0
BVO   27  12  35  13 /  90  30   0   0
FYV   32  16  31  12 / 100  90  10   0
BYV   31  14  30  14 / 100  80  10   0
MKO   36  17  33  16 / 100  80  10   0
MIO   28  12  32  18 / 100  30  10   0
F10   34  18  34  19 / 100  80  10   0
HHW   49  23  38  21 / 100 100  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ073-OKZ074.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR ARZ001.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 040956
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
356 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE LEADING EDGE OF COLDER AIR HAS PUSHED THROUGH ABOUT THE NRN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES JUST NOW REACHING THE KS/OK BORDER. EXPECT THE FREEZING
LINE TO PUSH TO NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR BY 12Z...TO MLC AND JUST N OF
FSM BY 18Z...AND THROUGH ALL BUT FAR SERN OK BY 00Z.

WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SPINNING ACROSS THE BAJA...WITH
AN IMPRESSIVE FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE NOTED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.
AREA RADARS HAVE SHOWN A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION OVER
THE PAST 1-2 HOURS ACROSS NWRN TX INTO SWRN/SRN OK...AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AS THE ENTRANCE REGION OF POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION.

FORECAST REASONING CONCERNING PRECIPITATION TYPES HASN`T CHANGED
MUCH. A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NE OK
AND NW WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO SLEET/SNOW LATER THIS MORNING
AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW LATER IN THE DAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS
EVENING. THE HIGHEST SNOW/SLEET TOTALS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS
PARTS OF NW AR...WITH A FEW 4+" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS CARROLL AND
MADISON COUNTIES. FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL HINGE ON WHEN THE
CHANGEOVER FROM SLEET TO SNOW OCCURS...AND SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE LESS
IF SLEET ENDS UP AS THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE. REGARDLESS...A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SLEET WILL STILL RESULT IN IMPACTS ON ROADS.

PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING
ACROSS SE OK INTO WCNTRL AR...WITH A TRANSITION TO FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET HOLDING OFF UNTIL MID-TO-LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY TO
ALL SNOW AFTER 00Z. SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY ACROSS LEFLORE INTO PARTS OF SRN LATIMER AND PUSHMATAHA
COUNTIES.

WHILE ANY ONE PRECIPITATION TYPE MAY NOT EXCEED WARNING CRITERIA FOR
THIS EVENT...THEN COMBINATION OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW AND
EXPECTED TRAVEL IMPACTS WARRANTS THE MAINTENANCE OF THE EXISTING
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NW AR INTO PARTS OF SE OK. CURRENT ICING
FORECAST FOR FAR SERN OK IS PUSHING WARNING CRITERIA...SO HAVE OPTED
TO UPGRADE CHOCTAW COUNTY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. WINTER STORM
WARNINGS ACROSS SE OK AND POSSIBLY WCNTRL AR MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
BEYOND 06Z...BUT WILL ALLOW DAYSHIFT TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS.

THURSDAY WILL BE A COLD DAY...BUT A MUCH ANTICIPATED WARMING TREND
WILL ENSUE LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND AND WELL INTO
THE 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   30  15  34  18 / 100  50  10   0
FSM   43  21  34  20 / 100  90  10   0
MLC   40  22  35  16 / 100  90  10   0
BVO   27  12  35  13 /  90  30   0   0
FYV   32  16  31  12 / 100  90  10   0
BYV   31  14  30  14 / 100  80  10   0
MKO   36  17  33  16 / 100  80  10   0
MIO   28  12  32  18 / 100  30  10   0
F10   34  18  34  19 / 100  80  10   0
HHW   49  23  38  21 / 100 100  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ073-OKZ074.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR ARZ001.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 040956
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
356 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE LEADING EDGE OF COLDER AIR HAS PUSHED THROUGH ABOUT THE NRN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES JUST NOW REACHING THE KS/OK BORDER. EXPECT THE FREEZING
LINE TO PUSH TO NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR BY 12Z...TO MLC AND JUST N OF
FSM BY 18Z...AND THROUGH ALL BUT FAR SERN OK BY 00Z.

WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SPINNING ACROSS THE BAJA...WITH
AN IMPRESSIVE FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE NOTED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.
AREA RADARS HAVE SHOWN A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION OVER
THE PAST 1-2 HOURS ACROSS NWRN TX INTO SWRN/SRN OK...AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AS THE ENTRANCE REGION OF POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION.

FORECAST REASONING CONCERNING PRECIPITATION TYPES HASN`T CHANGED
MUCH. A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NE OK
AND NW WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO SLEET/SNOW LATER THIS MORNING
AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW LATER IN THE DAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS
EVENING. THE HIGHEST SNOW/SLEET TOTALS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS
PARTS OF NW AR...WITH A FEW 4+" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS CARROLL AND
MADISON COUNTIES. FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL HINGE ON WHEN THE
CHANGEOVER FROM SLEET TO SNOW OCCURS...AND SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE LESS
IF SLEET ENDS UP AS THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE. REGARDLESS...A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SLEET WILL STILL RESULT IN IMPACTS ON ROADS.

PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING
ACROSS SE OK INTO WCNTRL AR...WITH A TRANSITION TO FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET HOLDING OFF UNTIL MID-TO-LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY TO
ALL SNOW AFTER 00Z. SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY ACROSS LEFLORE INTO PARTS OF SRN LATIMER AND PUSHMATAHA
COUNTIES.

WHILE ANY ONE PRECIPITATION TYPE MAY NOT EXCEED WARNING CRITERIA FOR
THIS EVENT...THEN COMBINATION OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW AND
EXPECTED TRAVEL IMPACTS WARRANTS THE MAINTENANCE OF THE EXISTING
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NW AR INTO PARTS OF SE OK. CURRENT ICING
FORECAST FOR FAR SERN OK IS PUSHING WARNING CRITERIA...SO HAVE OPTED
TO UPGRADE CHOCTAW COUNTY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. WINTER STORM
WARNINGS ACROSS SE OK AND POSSIBLY WCNTRL AR MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
BEYOND 06Z...BUT WILL ALLOW DAYSHIFT TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS.

THURSDAY WILL BE A COLD DAY...BUT A MUCH ANTICIPATED WARMING TREND
WILL ENSUE LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND AND WELL INTO
THE 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   30  15  34  18 / 100  50  10   0
FSM   43  21  34  20 / 100  90  10   0
MLC   40  22  35  16 / 100  90  10   0
BVO   27  12  35  13 /  90  30   0   0
FYV   32  16  31  12 / 100  90  10   0
BYV   31  14  30  14 / 100  80  10   0
MKO   36  17  33  16 / 100  80  10   0
MIO   28  12  32  18 / 100  30  10   0
F10   34  18  34  19 / 100  80  10   0
HHW   49  23  38  21 / 100 100  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ073-OKZ074.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR ARZ001.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....18






000
FXUS64 KOUN 040554
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1154 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
006Z TAFS...
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT...WHILE
SLEET AND SNOW WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH CEILING HEIGHTS AND VISIBILITY. WINTER PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BUT
WILL LINGER ELSEWHERE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 850 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
FOR THIS EVENING... MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS WITH THE
FORECAST. REMOVED THE THUNDER FROM THE SOUTH AND ADDED SOME PATCHY
FOG. HAVE ALSO TRENDED TEMPS WARMER ACROSS RED RIVER VALLEY LATER
TONIGHT.

QUICKLY LOOKING AT THIS EVENINGS 00Z NAM AND THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES FROM EARLIER RUN. A BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN DEVELOPS AND
MOVES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER... MODEL SHOWS MUCH OF THIS
AREA REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING WHILE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP IS
OCCURING. HOWEVER IF TEMPS ARE A FEW DEGREES COOLER COULD LEAD TO
MORE ICING IN THOSE AREAS BEFORE TRANSITION TO SLEET. FARTHER
NORTH... MODELS HAVE ALSO SHOWN A TREND IN KEEPING AMOUNTS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE BAND OF RAIN... LIGHTER
MEANING THAT SLEET AMOUNTS MAY BE LOWER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED.
NAM ALSO HAS TRENDED LOWER WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LATER IN THE DAY
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL THEREFORE NOT UPGRADE ANY OF THE
ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING AT THIS POINT. WILL SEE IF THE
00Z GFS CONT WITH THESE TRENDS.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
COLD AIR WILL MAKE A QUICK RETURN TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY 18Z WEDNESDAY...ALL TERMINALS WILL
BE BELOW FREEZING. WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES
WEDNESDAY WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE ONSET OF WINTER PRECIPITATION...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE A QUICK TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW. THE
WINTER PRECIP WILL LINGER PAST 00Z THURSDAY...BUT SHOULD END AT
ALL SITES BY 06Z THURSDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE THE LIKLIHOOD
OF WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SLEET AND SNOW...AND SOME FREEZING
RAIN...FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IF YOU STEP OUTSIDE RIGHT NOW...YOU MIGHT JUST THINK WE ARE
MAKING THINGS UP WHEN WE SPEAK OF WINTER WEATHER. NOT TO WORRY.
THE COLD AIR IS ON ITS WAY. WHILE THE PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT HAS
ALREADY ENTERED NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...THE COLD AIR IS LAGGING
QUITE A BIT. PLEASE DONT LET THIS BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMER WEATHER
FOOL YOU. WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF NASTY WINTER WEATHER
TOMORROW...AND YOU SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SPORADIC LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
MAINLY BE LIQUID. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSITION OVER TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. THIS TRANSITION
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. THE TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SLEET AND SNOW SHOULD OCCUR RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS
NORTHER...CENTRAL...AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...KEEPING TOTAL ICE
ACCUMULATIONS TO A MINIMUM. THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET/SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM
CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY TAPERING
OFF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

REGARDING ACCUMULATIONS...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS QUITE HIGH. THE ONE
THING WE ARE CONFIDENT IN IS THAT WIDESPREAD SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW...AFFECTING ALL OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIKELY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. FURTHER
SOUTH...FROM NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF A
QUARTER TO A HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ON TOP. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK TO BE FAIRLY MINOR OVER SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...BUT SIGNIFICANT SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE INCH
MAY OCCUR LOCALLY...AND FREEZING RAIN MAY LEAD ONE TO TWO TENTHS
OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION.

IMPACTS TO TRAVEL AND COMMERCE WILL BE WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH GROUND TEMPERATURES MAY WARM TODAY...SNOW
AND SLEET...AND THE RAPIDLY COOLING AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE ARCTIC
AIR...WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET AND ICE
ON AREA ROADWAYS...SIDEWALKS...AND VEHICLES. IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
WILL FIRST BE FELT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...AS SNOW AND SOME
SLEET ADD UP FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...WILL
SEE ACCUMULATING SLEET AND SNOW FROM 6 AM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...BEING
LAST TO FALL BELOW FREEZING...PROBABLY WONT SEE SLEET AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

FOR NOW...WE WILL HANDLE THIS WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM WITH A
STRONGLY WORDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. AS ADDITIONAL MODEL
GUIDANCE BECOMES AVAILABLE...AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON EXPECTED
IMPACTS...PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE UPGRADED TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING. PLEASE CHECK BACK WITH US FREQUENTLY AS THE
FORECAST CONTINUES TO EVOLVE REGARDING THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
WINTER STORM SYSTEM.

BY THE TIME WE GET TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW AND SLEET WILL BE
WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...WITH THE CONTINUED
PRESENCE OF ARCTIC AIR...ROADS AND SIDEWALKS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SNOW AND SLEET PACKED. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW TEENS AND UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS.

THE GOOD NEWS IS...ONCE WE GET TO FRIDAY...WE ARE DUE FOR A
PRONOUNCED WARM UP...AND SUBSTANTIAL MELTING OF SNOW AND ICE
SHOULD OCCUR...WITH IMPROVING ROADS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BY THIS
COMING WEEKEND...WE WILL BE ASKING OURSELVES WHERE WINTER
WENT...AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S...PERHAPS EVEN WARMER IF YOU`RE LUCKY.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  30  21  37 /  60  90  50  10
HOBART OK         27  30  18  36 /  50  70  40  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  37  35  21  36 /  70  90  60  10
GAGE OK           21  24  11  38 /  80  80  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     23  26  16  35 /  50  70  40  10
DURANT OK         44  41  23  37 /  80  90  80  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR OKZ019-020-022>048-050>052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ004>018-
     021.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 040554
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1154 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
006Z TAFS...
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT...WHILE
SLEET AND SNOW WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH CEILING HEIGHTS AND VISIBILITY. WINTER PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BUT
WILL LINGER ELSEWHERE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 850 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
FOR THIS EVENING... MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS WITH THE
FORECAST. REMOVED THE THUNDER FROM THE SOUTH AND ADDED SOME PATCHY
FOG. HAVE ALSO TRENDED TEMPS WARMER ACROSS RED RIVER VALLEY LATER
TONIGHT.

QUICKLY LOOKING AT THIS EVENINGS 00Z NAM AND THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES FROM EARLIER RUN. A BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN DEVELOPS AND
MOVES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER... MODEL SHOWS MUCH OF THIS
AREA REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING WHILE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP IS
OCCURING. HOWEVER IF TEMPS ARE A FEW DEGREES COOLER COULD LEAD TO
MORE ICING IN THOSE AREAS BEFORE TRANSITION TO SLEET. FARTHER
NORTH... MODELS HAVE ALSO SHOWN A TREND IN KEEPING AMOUNTS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE BAND OF RAIN... LIGHTER
MEANING THAT SLEET AMOUNTS MAY BE LOWER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED.
NAM ALSO HAS TRENDED LOWER WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LATER IN THE DAY
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL THEREFORE NOT UPGRADE ANY OF THE
ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING AT THIS POINT. WILL SEE IF THE
00Z GFS CONT WITH THESE TRENDS.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
COLD AIR WILL MAKE A QUICK RETURN TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY 18Z WEDNESDAY...ALL TERMINALS WILL
BE BELOW FREEZING. WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES
WEDNESDAY WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE ONSET OF WINTER PRECIPITATION...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE A QUICK TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW. THE
WINTER PRECIP WILL LINGER PAST 00Z THURSDAY...BUT SHOULD END AT
ALL SITES BY 06Z THURSDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE THE LIKLIHOOD
OF WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SLEET AND SNOW...AND SOME FREEZING
RAIN...FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IF YOU STEP OUTSIDE RIGHT NOW...YOU MIGHT JUST THINK WE ARE
MAKING THINGS UP WHEN WE SPEAK OF WINTER WEATHER. NOT TO WORRY.
THE COLD AIR IS ON ITS WAY. WHILE THE PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT HAS
ALREADY ENTERED NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...THE COLD AIR IS LAGGING
QUITE A BIT. PLEASE DONT LET THIS BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMER WEATHER
FOOL YOU. WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF NASTY WINTER WEATHER
TOMORROW...AND YOU SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SPORADIC LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
MAINLY BE LIQUID. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSITION OVER TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. THIS TRANSITION
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. THE TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SLEET AND SNOW SHOULD OCCUR RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS
NORTHER...CENTRAL...AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...KEEPING TOTAL ICE
ACCUMULATIONS TO A MINIMUM. THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET/SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM
CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY TAPERING
OFF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

REGARDING ACCUMULATIONS...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS QUITE HIGH. THE ONE
THING WE ARE CONFIDENT IN IS THAT WIDESPREAD SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW...AFFECTING ALL OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIKELY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. FURTHER
SOUTH...FROM NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF A
QUARTER TO A HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ON TOP. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK TO BE FAIRLY MINOR OVER SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...BUT SIGNIFICANT SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE INCH
MAY OCCUR LOCALLY...AND FREEZING RAIN MAY LEAD ONE TO TWO TENTHS
OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION.

IMPACTS TO TRAVEL AND COMMERCE WILL BE WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH GROUND TEMPERATURES MAY WARM TODAY...SNOW
AND SLEET...AND THE RAPIDLY COOLING AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE ARCTIC
AIR...WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET AND ICE
ON AREA ROADWAYS...SIDEWALKS...AND VEHICLES. IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
WILL FIRST BE FELT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...AS SNOW AND SOME
SLEET ADD UP FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...WILL
SEE ACCUMULATING SLEET AND SNOW FROM 6 AM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...BEING
LAST TO FALL BELOW FREEZING...PROBABLY WONT SEE SLEET AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

FOR NOW...WE WILL HANDLE THIS WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM WITH A
STRONGLY WORDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. AS ADDITIONAL MODEL
GUIDANCE BECOMES AVAILABLE...AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON EXPECTED
IMPACTS...PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE UPGRADED TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING. PLEASE CHECK BACK WITH US FREQUENTLY AS THE
FORECAST CONTINUES TO EVOLVE REGARDING THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
WINTER STORM SYSTEM.

BY THE TIME WE GET TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW AND SLEET WILL BE
WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...WITH THE CONTINUED
PRESENCE OF ARCTIC AIR...ROADS AND SIDEWALKS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SNOW AND SLEET PACKED. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW TEENS AND UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS.

THE GOOD NEWS IS...ONCE WE GET TO FRIDAY...WE ARE DUE FOR A
PRONOUNCED WARM UP...AND SUBSTANTIAL MELTING OF SNOW AND ICE
SHOULD OCCUR...WITH IMPROVING ROADS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BY THIS
COMING WEEKEND...WE WILL BE ASKING OURSELVES WHERE WINTER
WENT...AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S...PERHAPS EVEN WARMER IF YOU`RE LUCKY.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  30  21  37 /  60  90  50  10
HOBART OK         27  30  18  36 /  50  70  40  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  37  35  21  36 /  70  90  60  10
GAGE OK           21  24  11  38 /  80  80  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     23  26  16  35 /  50  70  40  10
DURANT OK         44  41  23  37 /  80  90  80  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR OKZ019-020-022>048-050>052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ004>018-
     021.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 040554
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1154 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
006Z TAFS...
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT...WHILE
SLEET AND SNOW WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH CEILING HEIGHTS AND VISIBILITY. WINTER PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BUT
WILL LINGER ELSEWHERE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 850 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
FOR THIS EVENING... MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS WITH THE
FORECAST. REMOVED THE THUNDER FROM THE SOUTH AND ADDED SOME PATCHY
FOG. HAVE ALSO TRENDED TEMPS WARMER ACROSS RED RIVER VALLEY LATER
TONIGHT.

QUICKLY LOOKING AT THIS EVENINGS 00Z NAM AND THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES FROM EARLIER RUN. A BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN DEVELOPS AND
MOVES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER... MODEL SHOWS MUCH OF THIS
AREA REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING WHILE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP IS
OCCURING. HOWEVER IF TEMPS ARE A FEW DEGREES COOLER COULD LEAD TO
MORE ICING IN THOSE AREAS BEFORE TRANSITION TO SLEET. FARTHER
NORTH... MODELS HAVE ALSO SHOWN A TREND IN KEEPING AMOUNTS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE BAND OF RAIN... LIGHTER
MEANING THAT SLEET AMOUNTS MAY BE LOWER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED.
NAM ALSO HAS TRENDED LOWER WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LATER IN THE DAY
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL THEREFORE NOT UPGRADE ANY OF THE
ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING AT THIS POINT. WILL SEE IF THE
00Z GFS CONT WITH THESE TRENDS.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
COLD AIR WILL MAKE A QUICK RETURN TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY 18Z WEDNESDAY...ALL TERMINALS WILL
BE BELOW FREEZING. WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES
WEDNESDAY WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE ONSET OF WINTER PRECIPITATION...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE A QUICK TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW. THE
WINTER PRECIP WILL LINGER PAST 00Z THURSDAY...BUT SHOULD END AT
ALL SITES BY 06Z THURSDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE THE LIKLIHOOD
OF WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SLEET AND SNOW...AND SOME FREEZING
RAIN...FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IF YOU STEP OUTSIDE RIGHT NOW...YOU MIGHT JUST THINK WE ARE
MAKING THINGS UP WHEN WE SPEAK OF WINTER WEATHER. NOT TO WORRY.
THE COLD AIR IS ON ITS WAY. WHILE THE PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT HAS
ALREADY ENTERED NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...THE COLD AIR IS LAGGING
QUITE A BIT. PLEASE DONT LET THIS BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMER WEATHER
FOOL YOU. WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF NASTY WINTER WEATHER
TOMORROW...AND YOU SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SPORADIC LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
MAINLY BE LIQUID. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSITION OVER TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. THIS TRANSITION
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. THE TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SLEET AND SNOW SHOULD OCCUR RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS
NORTHER...CENTRAL...AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...KEEPING TOTAL ICE
ACCUMULATIONS TO A MINIMUM. THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET/SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM
CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY TAPERING
OFF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

REGARDING ACCUMULATIONS...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS QUITE HIGH. THE ONE
THING WE ARE CONFIDENT IN IS THAT WIDESPREAD SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW...AFFECTING ALL OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIKELY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. FURTHER
SOUTH...FROM NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF A
QUARTER TO A HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ON TOP. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK TO BE FAIRLY MINOR OVER SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...BUT SIGNIFICANT SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE INCH
MAY OCCUR LOCALLY...AND FREEZING RAIN MAY LEAD ONE TO TWO TENTHS
OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION.

IMPACTS TO TRAVEL AND COMMERCE WILL BE WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH GROUND TEMPERATURES MAY WARM TODAY...SNOW
AND SLEET...AND THE RAPIDLY COOLING AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE ARCTIC
AIR...WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET AND ICE
ON AREA ROADWAYS...SIDEWALKS...AND VEHICLES. IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
WILL FIRST BE FELT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...AS SNOW AND SOME
SLEET ADD UP FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...WILL
SEE ACCUMULATING SLEET AND SNOW FROM 6 AM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...BEING
LAST TO FALL BELOW FREEZING...PROBABLY WONT SEE SLEET AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

FOR NOW...WE WILL HANDLE THIS WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM WITH A
STRONGLY WORDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. AS ADDITIONAL MODEL
GUIDANCE BECOMES AVAILABLE...AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON EXPECTED
IMPACTS...PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE UPGRADED TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING. PLEASE CHECK BACK WITH US FREQUENTLY AS THE
FORECAST CONTINUES TO EVOLVE REGARDING THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
WINTER STORM SYSTEM.

BY THE TIME WE GET TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW AND SLEET WILL BE
WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...WITH THE CONTINUED
PRESENCE OF ARCTIC AIR...ROADS AND SIDEWALKS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SNOW AND SLEET PACKED. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW TEENS AND UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS.

THE GOOD NEWS IS...ONCE WE GET TO FRIDAY...WE ARE DUE FOR A
PRONOUNCED WARM UP...AND SUBSTANTIAL MELTING OF SNOW AND ICE
SHOULD OCCUR...WITH IMPROVING ROADS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BY THIS
COMING WEEKEND...WE WILL BE ASKING OURSELVES WHERE WINTER
WENT...AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S...PERHAPS EVEN WARMER IF YOU`RE LUCKY.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  30  21  37 /  60  90  50  10
HOBART OK         27  30  18  36 /  50  70  40  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  37  35  21  36 /  70  90  60  10
GAGE OK           21  24  11  38 /  80  80  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     23  26  16  35 /  50  70  40  10
DURANT OK         44  41  23  37 /  80  90  80  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR OKZ019-020-022>048-050>052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ004>018-
     021.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 040554
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1154 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
006Z TAFS...
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT...WHILE
SLEET AND SNOW WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH CEILING HEIGHTS AND VISIBILITY. WINTER PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BUT
WILL LINGER ELSEWHERE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 850 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
FOR THIS EVENING... MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS WITH THE
FORECAST. REMOVED THE THUNDER FROM THE SOUTH AND ADDED SOME PATCHY
FOG. HAVE ALSO TRENDED TEMPS WARMER ACROSS RED RIVER VALLEY LATER
TONIGHT.

QUICKLY LOOKING AT THIS EVENINGS 00Z NAM AND THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES FROM EARLIER RUN. A BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN DEVELOPS AND
MOVES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER... MODEL SHOWS MUCH OF THIS
AREA REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING WHILE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP IS
OCCURING. HOWEVER IF TEMPS ARE A FEW DEGREES COOLER COULD LEAD TO
MORE ICING IN THOSE AREAS BEFORE TRANSITION TO SLEET. FARTHER
NORTH... MODELS HAVE ALSO SHOWN A TREND IN KEEPING AMOUNTS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE BAND OF RAIN... LIGHTER
MEANING THAT SLEET AMOUNTS MAY BE LOWER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED.
NAM ALSO HAS TRENDED LOWER WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LATER IN THE DAY
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL THEREFORE NOT UPGRADE ANY OF THE
ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING AT THIS POINT. WILL SEE IF THE
00Z GFS CONT WITH THESE TRENDS.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
COLD AIR WILL MAKE A QUICK RETURN TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY 18Z WEDNESDAY...ALL TERMINALS WILL
BE BELOW FREEZING. WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES
WEDNESDAY WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE ONSET OF WINTER PRECIPITATION...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE A QUICK TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW. THE
WINTER PRECIP WILL LINGER PAST 00Z THURSDAY...BUT SHOULD END AT
ALL SITES BY 06Z THURSDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE THE LIKLIHOOD
OF WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SLEET AND SNOW...AND SOME FREEZING
RAIN...FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IF YOU STEP OUTSIDE RIGHT NOW...YOU MIGHT JUST THINK WE ARE
MAKING THINGS UP WHEN WE SPEAK OF WINTER WEATHER. NOT TO WORRY.
THE COLD AIR IS ON ITS WAY. WHILE THE PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT HAS
ALREADY ENTERED NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...THE COLD AIR IS LAGGING
QUITE A BIT. PLEASE DONT LET THIS BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMER WEATHER
FOOL YOU. WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF NASTY WINTER WEATHER
TOMORROW...AND YOU SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SPORADIC LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
MAINLY BE LIQUID. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSITION OVER TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. THIS TRANSITION
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. THE TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SLEET AND SNOW SHOULD OCCUR RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS
NORTHER...CENTRAL...AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...KEEPING TOTAL ICE
ACCUMULATIONS TO A MINIMUM. THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET/SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM
CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY TAPERING
OFF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

REGARDING ACCUMULATIONS...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS QUITE HIGH. THE ONE
THING WE ARE CONFIDENT IN IS THAT WIDESPREAD SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW...AFFECTING ALL OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIKELY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. FURTHER
SOUTH...FROM NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF A
QUARTER TO A HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ON TOP. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK TO BE FAIRLY MINOR OVER SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...BUT SIGNIFICANT SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE INCH
MAY OCCUR LOCALLY...AND FREEZING RAIN MAY LEAD ONE TO TWO TENTHS
OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION.

IMPACTS TO TRAVEL AND COMMERCE WILL BE WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH GROUND TEMPERATURES MAY WARM TODAY...SNOW
AND SLEET...AND THE RAPIDLY COOLING AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE ARCTIC
AIR...WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET AND ICE
ON AREA ROADWAYS...SIDEWALKS...AND VEHICLES. IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
WILL FIRST BE FELT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...AS SNOW AND SOME
SLEET ADD UP FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...WILL
SEE ACCUMULATING SLEET AND SNOW FROM 6 AM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...BEING
LAST TO FALL BELOW FREEZING...PROBABLY WONT SEE SLEET AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

FOR NOW...WE WILL HANDLE THIS WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM WITH A
STRONGLY WORDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. AS ADDITIONAL MODEL
GUIDANCE BECOMES AVAILABLE...AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON EXPECTED
IMPACTS...PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE UPGRADED TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING. PLEASE CHECK BACK WITH US FREQUENTLY AS THE
FORECAST CONTINUES TO EVOLVE REGARDING THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
WINTER STORM SYSTEM.

BY THE TIME WE GET TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW AND SLEET WILL BE
WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...WITH THE CONTINUED
PRESENCE OF ARCTIC AIR...ROADS AND SIDEWALKS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SNOW AND SLEET PACKED. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW TEENS AND UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS.

THE GOOD NEWS IS...ONCE WE GET TO FRIDAY...WE ARE DUE FOR A
PRONOUNCED WARM UP...AND SUBSTANTIAL MELTING OF SNOW AND ICE
SHOULD OCCUR...WITH IMPROVING ROADS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BY THIS
COMING WEEKEND...WE WILL BE ASKING OURSELVES WHERE WINTER
WENT...AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S...PERHAPS EVEN WARMER IF YOU`RE LUCKY.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  30  21  37 /  60  90  50  10
HOBART OK         27  30  18  36 /  50  70  40  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  37  35  21  36 /  70  90  60  10
GAGE OK           21  24  11  38 /  80  80  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     23  26  16  35 /  50  70  40  10
DURANT OK         44  41  23  37 /  80  90  80  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR OKZ019-020-022>048-050>052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ004>018-
     021.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 040550
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1150 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL CHANGE PRECIPITATION TO BRIEF MIX
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET...PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET...AND EVENTUALLY
SNOW BEFORE ENDING. MVFR/IFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR FROM NW TO SE
LATE DAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
00Z NAM TRENDING TOWARDS THE 18Z GFS WITH HEAVIEST QPF FROM
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS ALIGNS WELL WITH
THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH THE GREATEST IMPACTS LIKELY TO BE WITHIN
THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA. ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SLEET AND
SNOW APPEAR LIKELY NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER NORTHWEST OF TULSA WHICH
ALSO AGREES WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. THUS NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED
TO THE GOING FORECAST OR TO THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   28  30  15  34 /  80 100  50  10
FSM   41  43  21  34 /  90 100  90  10
MLC   37  40  22  35 /  80 100  90  10
BVO   24  27  12  35 /  80  90  30   0
FYV   30  32  16  31 /  80 100  70  10
BYV   29  31  14  30 /  80 100  70  10
MKO   33  36  17  33 /  80 100  70  10
MIO   25  28  12  32 /  80 100  40  10
F10   32  34  18  34 /  80 100  70  10
HHW   47  49  23  38 /  80 100  90  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ049-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ053-OKZ073-OKZ074.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ001.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...21





000
FXUS64 KTSA 040550
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1150 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL CHANGE PRECIPITATION TO BRIEF MIX
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET...PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET...AND EVENTUALLY
SNOW BEFORE ENDING. MVFR/IFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR FROM NW TO SE
LATE DAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
00Z NAM TRENDING TOWARDS THE 18Z GFS WITH HEAVIEST QPF FROM
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS ALIGNS WELL WITH
THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH THE GREATEST IMPACTS LIKELY TO BE WITHIN
THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA. ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SLEET AND
SNOW APPEAR LIKELY NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER NORTHWEST OF TULSA WHICH
ALSO AGREES WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. THUS NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED
TO THE GOING FORECAST OR TO THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   28  30  15  34 /  80 100  50  10
FSM   41  43  21  34 /  90 100  90  10
MLC   37  40  22  35 /  80 100  90  10
BVO   24  27  12  35 /  80  90  30   0
FYV   30  32  16  31 /  80 100  70  10
BYV   29  31  14  30 /  80 100  70  10
MKO   33  36  17  33 /  80 100  70  10
MIO   25  28  12  32 /  80 100  40  10
F10   32  34  18  34 /  80 100  70  10
HHW   47  49  23  38 /  80 100  90  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ049-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ053-OKZ073-OKZ074.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ001.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...21






000
FXUS64 KTSA 040550
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1150 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL CHANGE PRECIPITATION TO BRIEF MIX
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET...PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET...AND EVENTUALLY
SNOW BEFORE ENDING. MVFR/IFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR FROM NW TO SE
LATE DAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
00Z NAM TRENDING TOWARDS THE 18Z GFS WITH HEAVIEST QPF FROM
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS ALIGNS WELL WITH
THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH THE GREATEST IMPACTS LIKELY TO BE WITHIN
THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA. ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SLEET AND
SNOW APPEAR LIKELY NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER NORTHWEST OF TULSA WHICH
ALSO AGREES WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. THUS NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED
TO THE GOING FORECAST OR TO THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   28  30  15  34 /  80 100  50  10
FSM   41  43  21  34 /  90 100  90  10
MLC   37  40  22  35 /  80 100  90  10
BVO   24  27  12  35 /  80  90  30   0
FYV   30  32  16  31 /  80 100  70  10
BYV   29  31  14  30 /  80 100  70  10
MKO   33  36  17  33 /  80 100  70  10
MIO   25  28  12  32 /  80 100  40  10
F10   32  34  18  34 /  80 100  70  10
HHW   47  49  23  38 /  80 100  90  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ049-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ053-OKZ073-OKZ074.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ001.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...21





000
FXUS64 KTSA 040550
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1150 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL CHANGE PRECIPITATION TO BRIEF MIX
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET...PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET...AND EVENTUALLY
SNOW BEFORE ENDING. MVFR/IFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR FROM NW TO SE
LATE DAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
00Z NAM TRENDING TOWARDS THE 18Z GFS WITH HEAVIEST QPF FROM
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS ALIGNS WELL WITH
THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH THE GREATEST IMPACTS LIKELY TO BE WITHIN
THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA. ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SLEET AND
SNOW APPEAR LIKELY NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER NORTHWEST OF TULSA WHICH
ALSO AGREES WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. THUS NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED
TO THE GOING FORECAST OR TO THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   28  30  15  34 /  80 100  50  10
FSM   41  43  21  34 /  90 100  90  10
MLC   37  40  22  35 /  80 100  90  10
BVO   24  27  12  35 /  80  90  30   0
FYV   30  32  16  31 /  80 100  70  10
BYV   29  31  14  30 /  80 100  70  10
MKO   33  36  17  33 /  80 100  70  10
MIO   25  28  12  32 /  80 100  40  10
F10   32  34  18  34 /  80 100  70  10
HHW   47  49  23  38 /  80 100  90  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ049-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ053-OKZ073-OKZ074.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ001.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...21






000
FXUS64 KTSA 040334
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
934 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
00Z NAM TRENDING TOWARDS THE 18Z GFS WITH HEAVIEST QPF FROM
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS ALIGNS WELL WITH
THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH THE GREATEST IMPACTS LIKELY TO BE WITHIN
THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA. ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SLEET AND
SNOW APPEAR LIKELY NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER NORTHWEST OF TULSA WHICH
ALSO AGREES WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. THUS NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED
TO THE GOING FORECAST OR TO THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ049-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ053-OKZ073-OKZ074.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ001.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....05

PLATE






000
FXUS64 KTSA 040334
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
934 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
00Z NAM TRENDING TOWARDS THE 18Z GFS WITH HEAVIEST QPF FROM
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS ALIGNS WELL WITH
THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH THE GREATEST IMPACTS LIKELY TO BE WITHIN
THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA. ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SLEET AND
SNOW APPEAR LIKELY NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER NORTHWEST OF TULSA WHICH
ALSO AGREES WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. THUS NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED
TO THE GOING FORECAST OR TO THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ049-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ053-OKZ073-OKZ074.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ001.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....05

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KTSA 040334
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
934 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
00Z NAM TRENDING TOWARDS THE 18Z GFS WITH HEAVIEST QPF FROM
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS ALIGNS WELL WITH
THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH THE GREATEST IMPACTS LIKELY TO BE WITHIN
THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA. ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SLEET AND
SNOW APPEAR LIKELY NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER NORTHWEST OF TULSA WHICH
ALSO AGREES WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. THUS NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED
TO THE GOING FORECAST OR TO THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ049-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ053-OKZ073-OKZ074.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ001.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....05

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KTSA 040334
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
934 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
00Z NAM TRENDING TOWARDS THE 18Z GFS WITH HEAVIEST QPF FROM
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS ALIGNS WELL WITH
THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH THE GREATEST IMPACTS LIKELY TO BE WITHIN
THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA. ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SLEET AND
SNOW APPEAR LIKELY NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER NORTHWEST OF TULSA WHICH
ALSO AGREES WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. THUS NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED
TO THE GOING FORECAST OR TO THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ049-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ053-OKZ073-OKZ074.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ001.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....05

PLATE






000
FXUS64 KOUN 040252
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
850 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR THIS EVENING... MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS WITH THE
FORECAST. REMOVED THE THUNDER FROM THE SOUTH AND ADDED SOME PATCHY
FOG. HAVE ALSO TRENDED TEMPS WARMER ACROSS RED RIVER VALLEY LATER
TONIGHT.

QUICKLY LOOKING AT THIS EVENINGS 00Z NAM AND THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES FROM EARLIER RUN. A BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN DEVELOPS AND
MOVES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SSOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER... MODEL SHOWS MUCH OF THIS
AREA REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING WHILE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP IS OCCURING.
HOWEVER IF TEMPS ARE A FEW DEGREES COOLER COULD LEAD TO MORE ICING
IN THOSE AREAS BEFORE TRANSITION TO SLEET. FARTHER NORTH... MODELS
HAVE ALSO SHOWN A TREND IN KEEPING AMOUNTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TO THE NORTH OF THE BAND OF RAIN... LIGHTER MEANING THAT SLEET
AMOUNTS MAY BE LOWER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. NAM ALSO HAS TRENDED
LOWER WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WILL THEREFORE NOT UPGRADE ANY OF THE ADVISORY TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING AT THIS POINT. WILL SEE IF THE 00Z GFS CONT WITH THESE
TRENDS.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

.AVIATION...
COLD AIR WILL MAKE A QUICK RETURN TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY 18Z WEDNESDAY...ALL TERMINALS WILL
BE BELOW FREEZING. WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES
WEDNESDAY WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE ONSET OF WINTER PRECIPITATION...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE A QUICK TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW. THE
WINTER PRECIP WILL LINGER PAST 00Z THURSDAY...BUT SHOULD END AT
ALL SITES BY 06Z THURSDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE THE LIKLIHOOD
OF WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SLEET AND SNOW...AND SOME FREEZING
RAIN...FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IF YOU STEP OUTSIDE RIGHT NOW...YOU MIGHT JUST THINK WE ARE
MAKING THINGS UP WHEN WE SPEAK OF WINTER WEATHER. NOT TO WORRY.
THE COLD AIR IS ON ITS WAY. WHILE THE PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT HAS
ALREADY ENTERED NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...THE COLD AIR IS LAGGING
QUITE A BIT. PLEASE DONT LET THIS BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMER WEATHER
FOOL YOU. WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF NASTY WINTER WEATHER
TOMORROW...AND YOU SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SPORADIC LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
MAINLY BE LIQUID. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSITION OVER TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. THIS TRANSITION
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. THE TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SLEET AND SNOW SHOULD OCCUR RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS
NORTHER...CENTRAL...AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...KEEPING TOTAL ICE
ACCUMULATIONS TO A MINIMUM. THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET/SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM
CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY TAPERING
OFF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

REGARDING ACCUMULATIONS...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS QUITE HIGH. THE ONE
THING WE ARE CONFIDENT IN IS THAT WIDESPREAD SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW...AFFECTING ALL OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIKELY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. FURTHER
SOUTH...FROM NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF A
QUARTER TO A HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ON TOP. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK TO BE FAIRLY MINOR OVER SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...BUT SIGNIFICANT SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE INCH
MAY OCCUR LOCALLY...AND FREEZING RAIN MAY LEAD ONE TO TWO TENTHS
OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION.

IMPACTS TO TRAVEL AND COMMERCE WILL BE WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH GROUND TEMPERATURES MAY WARM TODAY...SNOW
AND SLEET...AND THE RAPIDLY COOLING AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE ARCTIC
AIR...WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET AND ICE
ON AREA ROADWAYS...SIDEWALKS...AND VEHICLES. IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
WILL FIRST BE FELT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...AS SNOW AND SOME
SLEET ADD UP FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...WILL
SEE ACCUMULATING SLEET AND SNOW FROM 6 AM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...BEING
LAST TO FALL BELOW FREEZING...PROBABLY WONT SEE SLEET AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

FOR NOW...WE WILL HANDLE THIS WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM WITH A
STRONGLY WORDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. AS ADDITIONAL MODEL
GUIDANCE BECOMES AVAILABLE...AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON EXPECTED
IMPACTS...PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE UPGRADED TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING. PLEASE CHECK BACK WITH US FREQUENTLY AS THE
FORECAST CONTINUES TO EVOLVE REGARDING THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
WINTER STORM SYSTEM.

BY THE TIME WE GET TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW AND SLEET WILL BE
WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...WITH THE CONTINUED
PRESENCE OF ARCTIC AIR...ROADS AND SIDEWALKS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SNOW AND SLEET PACKED. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW TEENS AND UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS.

THE GOOD NEWS IS...ONCE WE GET TO FRIDAY...WE ARE DUE FOR A
PRONOUNCED WARM UP...AND SUBSTANTIAL MELTING OF SNOW AND ICE
SHOULD OCCUR...WITH IMPROVING ROADS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BY THIS
COMING WEEKEND...WE WILL BE ASKING OURSELVES WHERE WINTER
WENT...AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S...PERHAPS EVEN WARMER IF YOU`RE LUCKY.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  30  21  37 /  60  90  50  10
HOBART OK         27  30  18  36 /  50  70  40  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  34  35  21  36 /  70  90  60  10
GAGE OK           21  24  11  38 /  80  80  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     23  26  16  35 /  50  70  40  10
DURANT OK         39  41  23  37 /  80  90  80  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR OKZ019-020-022>048-050>052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ004>018-021.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 040252
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
850 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR THIS EVENING... MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS WITH THE
FORECAST. REMOVED THE THUNDER FROM THE SOUTH AND ADDED SOME PATCHY
FOG. HAVE ALSO TRENDED TEMPS WARMER ACROSS RED RIVER VALLEY LATER
TONIGHT.

QUICKLY LOOKING AT THIS EVENINGS 00Z NAM AND THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES FROM EARLIER RUN. A BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN DEVELOPS AND
MOVES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SSOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER... MODEL SHOWS MUCH OF THIS
AREA REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING WHILE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP IS OCCURING.
HOWEVER IF TEMPS ARE A FEW DEGREES COOLER COULD LEAD TO MORE ICING
IN THOSE AREAS BEFORE TRANSITION TO SLEET. FARTHER NORTH... MODELS
HAVE ALSO SHOWN A TREND IN KEEPING AMOUNTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TO THE NORTH OF THE BAND OF RAIN... LIGHTER MEANING THAT SLEET
AMOUNTS MAY BE LOWER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. NAM ALSO HAS TRENDED
LOWER WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WILL THEREFORE NOT UPGRADE ANY OF THE ADVISORY TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING AT THIS POINT. WILL SEE IF THE 00Z GFS CONT WITH THESE
TRENDS.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

.AVIATION...
COLD AIR WILL MAKE A QUICK RETURN TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY 18Z WEDNESDAY...ALL TERMINALS WILL
BE BELOW FREEZING. WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES
WEDNESDAY WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE ONSET OF WINTER PRECIPITATION...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE A QUICK TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW. THE
WINTER PRECIP WILL LINGER PAST 00Z THURSDAY...BUT SHOULD END AT
ALL SITES BY 06Z THURSDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE THE LIKLIHOOD
OF WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SLEET AND SNOW...AND SOME FREEZING
RAIN...FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IF YOU STEP OUTSIDE RIGHT NOW...YOU MIGHT JUST THINK WE ARE
MAKING THINGS UP WHEN WE SPEAK OF WINTER WEATHER. NOT TO WORRY.
THE COLD AIR IS ON ITS WAY. WHILE THE PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT HAS
ALREADY ENTERED NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...THE COLD AIR IS LAGGING
QUITE A BIT. PLEASE DONT LET THIS BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMER WEATHER
FOOL YOU. WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF NASTY WINTER WEATHER
TOMORROW...AND YOU SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SPORADIC LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
MAINLY BE LIQUID. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSITION OVER TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. THIS TRANSITION
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. THE TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SLEET AND SNOW SHOULD OCCUR RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS
NORTHER...CENTRAL...AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...KEEPING TOTAL ICE
ACCUMULATIONS TO A MINIMUM. THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET/SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM
CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY TAPERING
OFF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

REGARDING ACCUMULATIONS...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS QUITE HIGH. THE ONE
THING WE ARE CONFIDENT IN IS THAT WIDESPREAD SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW...AFFECTING ALL OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIKELY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. FURTHER
SOUTH...FROM NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF A
QUARTER TO A HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ON TOP. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK TO BE FAIRLY MINOR OVER SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...BUT SIGNIFICANT SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE INCH
MAY OCCUR LOCALLY...AND FREEZING RAIN MAY LEAD ONE TO TWO TENTHS
OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION.

IMPACTS TO TRAVEL AND COMMERCE WILL BE WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH GROUND TEMPERATURES MAY WARM TODAY...SNOW
AND SLEET...AND THE RAPIDLY COOLING AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE ARCTIC
AIR...WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET AND ICE
ON AREA ROADWAYS...SIDEWALKS...AND VEHICLES. IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
WILL FIRST BE FELT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...AS SNOW AND SOME
SLEET ADD UP FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...WILL
SEE ACCUMULATING SLEET AND SNOW FROM 6 AM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...BEING
LAST TO FALL BELOW FREEZING...PROBABLY WONT SEE SLEET AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

FOR NOW...WE WILL HANDLE THIS WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM WITH A
STRONGLY WORDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. AS ADDITIONAL MODEL
GUIDANCE BECOMES AVAILABLE...AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON EXPECTED
IMPACTS...PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE UPGRADED TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING. PLEASE CHECK BACK WITH US FREQUENTLY AS THE
FORECAST CONTINUES TO EVOLVE REGARDING THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
WINTER STORM SYSTEM.

BY THE TIME WE GET TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW AND SLEET WILL BE
WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...WITH THE CONTINUED
PRESENCE OF ARCTIC AIR...ROADS AND SIDEWALKS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SNOW AND SLEET PACKED. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW TEENS AND UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS.

THE GOOD NEWS IS...ONCE WE GET TO FRIDAY...WE ARE DUE FOR A
PRONOUNCED WARM UP...AND SUBSTANTIAL MELTING OF SNOW AND ICE
SHOULD OCCUR...WITH IMPROVING ROADS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BY THIS
COMING WEEKEND...WE WILL BE ASKING OURSELVES WHERE WINTER
WENT...AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S...PERHAPS EVEN WARMER IF YOU`RE LUCKY.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  30  21  37 /  60  90  50  10
HOBART OK         27  30  18  36 /  50  70  40  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  34  35  21  36 /  70  90  60  10
GAGE OK           21  24  11  38 /  80  80  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     23  26  16  35 /  50  70  40  10
DURANT OK         39  41  23  37 /  80  90  80  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR OKZ019-020-022>048-050>052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ004>018-021.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 040252
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
850 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR THIS EVENING... MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS WITH THE
FORECAST. REMOVED THE THUNDER FROM THE SOUTH AND ADDED SOME PATCHY
FOG. HAVE ALSO TRENDED TEMPS WARMER ACROSS RED RIVER VALLEY LATER
TONIGHT.

QUICKLY LOOKING AT THIS EVENINGS 00Z NAM AND THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES FROM EARLIER RUN. A BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN DEVELOPS AND
MOVES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SSOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER... MODEL SHOWS MUCH OF THIS
AREA REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING WHILE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP IS OCCURING.
HOWEVER IF TEMPS ARE A FEW DEGREES COOLER COULD LEAD TO MORE ICING
IN THOSE AREAS BEFORE TRANSITION TO SLEET. FARTHER NORTH... MODELS
HAVE ALSO SHOWN A TREND IN KEEPING AMOUNTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TO THE NORTH OF THE BAND OF RAIN... LIGHTER MEANING THAT SLEET
AMOUNTS MAY BE LOWER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. NAM ALSO HAS TRENDED
LOWER WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WILL THEREFORE NOT UPGRADE ANY OF THE ADVISORY TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING AT THIS POINT. WILL SEE IF THE 00Z GFS CONT WITH THESE
TRENDS.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

.AVIATION...
COLD AIR WILL MAKE A QUICK RETURN TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY 18Z WEDNESDAY...ALL TERMINALS WILL
BE BELOW FREEZING. WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES
WEDNESDAY WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE ONSET OF WINTER PRECIPITATION...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE A QUICK TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW. THE
WINTER PRECIP WILL LINGER PAST 00Z THURSDAY...BUT SHOULD END AT
ALL SITES BY 06Z THURSDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE THE LIKLIHOOD
OF WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SLEET AND SNOW...AND SOME FREEZING
RAIN...FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IF YOU STEP OUTSIDE RIGHT NOW...YOU MIGHT JUST THINK WE ARE
MAKING THINGS UP WHEN WE SPEAK OF WINTER WEATHER. NOT TO WORRY.
THE COLD AIR IS ON ITS WAY. WHILE THE PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT HAS
ALREADY ENTERED NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...THE COLD AIR IS LAGGING
QUITE A BIT. PLEASE DONT LET THIS BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMER WEATHER
FOOL YOU. WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF NASTY WINTER WEATHER
TOMORROW...AND YOU SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SPORADIC LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
MAINLY BE LIQUID. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSITION OVER TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. THIS TRANSITION
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. THE TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SLEET AND SNOW SHOULD OCCUR RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS
NORTHER...CENTRAL...AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...KEEPING TOTAL ICE
ACCUMULATIONS TO A MINIMUM. THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET/SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM
CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY TAPERING
OFF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

REGARDING ACCUMULATIONS...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS QUITE HIGH. THE ONE
THING WE ARE CONFIDENT IN IS THAT WIDESPREAD SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW...AFFECTING ALL OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIKELY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. FURTHER
SOUTH...FROM NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF A
QUARTER TO A HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ON TOP. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK TO BE FAIRLY MINOR OVER SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...BUT SIGNIFICANT SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE INCH
MAY OCCUR LOCALLY...AND FREEZING RAIN MAY LEAD ONE TO TWO TENTHS
OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION.

IMPACTS TO TRAVEL AND COMMERCE WILL BE WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH GROUND TEMPERATURES MAY WARM TODAY...SNOW
AND SLEET...AND THE RAPIDLY COOLING AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE ARCTIC
AIR...WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET AND ICE
ON AREA ROADWAYS...SIDEWALKS...AND VEHICLES. IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
WILL FIRST BE FELT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...AS SNOW AND SOME
SLEET ADD UP FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...WILL
SEE ACCUMULATING SLEET AND SNOW FROM 6 AM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...BEING
LAST TO FALL BELOW FREEZING...PROBABLY WONT SEE SLEET AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

FOR NOW...WE WILL HANDLE THIS WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM WITH A
STRONGLY WORDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. AS ADDITIONAL MODEL
GUIDANCE BECOMES AVAILABLE...AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON EXPECTED
IMPACTS...PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE UPGRADED TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING. PLEASE CHECK BACK WITH US FREQUENTLY AS THE
FORECAST CONTINUES TO EVOLVE REGARDING THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
WINTER STORM SYSTEM.

BY THE TIME WE GET TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW AND SLEET WILL BE
WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...WITH THE CONTINUED
PRESENCE OF ARCTIC AIR...ROADS AND SIDEWALKS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SNOW AND SLEET PACKED. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW TEENS AND UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS.

THE GOOD NEWS IS...ONCE WE GET TO FRIDAY...WE ARE DUE FOR A
PRONOUNCED WARM UP...AND SUBSTANTIAL MELTING OF SNOW AND ICE
SHOULD OCCUR...WITH IMPROVING ROADS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BY THIS
COMING WEEKEND...WE WILL BE ASKING OURSELVES WHERE WINTER
WENT...AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S...PERHAPS EVEN WARMER IF YOU`RE LUCKY.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  30  21  37 /  60  90  50  10
HOBART OK         27  30  18  36 /  50  70  40  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  34  35  21  36 /  70  90  60  10
GAGE OK           21  24  11  38 /  80  80  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     23  26  16  35 /  50  70  40  10
DURANT OK         39  41  23  37 /  80  90  80  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR OKZ019-020-022>048-050>052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ004>018-021.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 040018
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
618 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
COLD AIR WILL MAKE A QUICK RETURN TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY 18Z WEDNESDAY...ALL TERMINALS WILL
BE BELOW FREEZING. WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES
WEDNESDAY WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE ONSET OF WINTER PRECIPITATION...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE A QUICK TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW. THE
WINTER PRECIP WILL LINGER PAST 00Z THURSDAY...BUT SHOULD END AT
ALL SITES BY 06Z THURSDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE THE LIKLIHOOD
OF WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SLEET AND SNOW...AND SOME FREEZING
RAIN...FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IF YOU STEP OUTSIDE RIGHT NOW...YOU MIGHT JUST THINK WE ARE
MAKING THINGS UP WHEN WE SPEAK OF WINTER WEATHER. NOT TO WORRY.
THE COLD AIR IS ON ITS WAY. WHILE THE PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT HAS
ALREADY ENTERED NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...THE COLD AIR IS LAGGING
QUITE A BIT. PLEASE DONT LET THIS BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMER WEATHER
FOOL YOU. WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF NASTY WINTER WEATHER
TOMORROW...AND YOU SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SPORADIC LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
MAINLY BE LIQUID. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSITION OVER TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. THIS TRANSITION
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. THE TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SLEET AND SNOW SHOULD OCCUR RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS
NORTHER...CENTRAL...AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...KEEPING TOTAL ICE
ACCUMULATIONS TO A MINIMUM. THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET/SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM
CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY TAPERING
OFF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

REGARDING ACCUMULATIONS...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS QUITE HIGH. THE ONE
THING WE ARE CONFIDENT IN IS THAT WIDESPREAD SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW...AFFECTING ALL OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIKELY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. FURTHER
SOUTH...FROM NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF A
QUARTER TO A HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ON TOP. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK TO BE FAIRLY MINOR OVER SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...BUT SIGNIFICANT SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE INCH
MAY OCCUR LOCALLY...AND FREEZING RAIN MAY LEAD ONE TO TWO TENTHS
OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION.

IMPACTS TO TRAVEL AND COMMERCE WILL BE WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH GROUND TEMPERATURES MAY WARM TODAY...SNOW
AND SLEET...AND THE RAPIDLY COOLING AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE ARCTIC
AIR...WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET AND ICE
ON AREA ROADWAYS...SIDEWALKS...AND VEHICLES. IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
WILL FIRST BE FELT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...AS SNOW AND SOME
SLEET ADD UP FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...WILL
SEE ACCUMULATING SLEET AND SNOW FROM 6 AM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...BEING
LAST TO FALL BELOW FREEZING...PROBABLY WONT SEE SLEET AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

FOR NOW...WE WILL HANDLE THIS WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM WITH A
STRONGLY WORDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. AS ADDITIONAL MODEL
GUIDANCE BECOMES AVAILABLE...AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON EXPECTED
IMPACTS...PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE UPGRADED TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING. PLEASE CHECK BACK WITH US FREQUENTLY AS THE
FORECAST CONTINUES TO EVOLVE REGARDING THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
WINTER STORM SYSTEM.

BY THE TIME WE GET TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW AND SLEET WILL BE
WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...WITH THE CONTINUED
PRESENCE OF ARCTIC AIR...ROADS AND SIDEWALKS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SNOW AND SLEET PACKED. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW TEENS AND UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS.

THE GOOD NEWS IS...ONCE WE GET TO FRIDAY...WE ARE DUE FOR A
PRONOUNCED WARM UP...AND SUBSTANTIAL MELTING OF SNOW AND ICE
SHOULD OCCUR...WITH IMPROVING ROADS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BY THIS
COMING WEEKEND...WE WILL BE ASKING OURSELVES WHERE WINTER
WENT...AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S...PERHAPS EVEN WARMER IF YOU`RE LUCKY.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  30  21  37 /  60  90  50  10
HOBART OK         27  30  18  36 /  50  70  40  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  34  35  21  36 /  70  90  60  10
GAGE OK           21  24  11  38 /  80  80  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     23  26  16  35 /  50  70  40  10
DURANT OK         39  41  23  37 /  80  90  80  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR OKZ019-020-022>048-050>052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ004>018-021.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 040018
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
618 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
COLD AIR WILL MAKE A QUICK RETURN TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY 18Z WEDNESDAY...ALL TERMINALS WILL
BE BELOW FREEZING. WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES
WEDNESDAY WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE ONSET OF WINTER PRECIPITATION...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE A QUICK TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW. THE
WINTER PRECIP WILL LINGER PAST 00Z THURSDAY...BUT SHOULD END AT
ALL SITES BY 06Z THURSDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE THE LIKLIHOOD
OF WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SLEET AND SNOW...AND SOME FREEZING
RAIN...FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IF YOU STEP OUTSIDE RIGHT NOW...YOU MIGHT JUST THINK WE ARE
MAKING THINGS UP WHEN WE SPEAK OF WINTER WEATHER. NOT TO WORRY.
THE COLD AIR IS ON ITS WAY. WHILE THE PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT HAS
ALREADY ENTERED NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...THE COLD AIR IS LAGGING
QUITE A BIT. PLEASE DONT LET THIS BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMER WEATHER
FOOL YOU. WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF NASTY WINTER WEATHER
TOMORROW...AND YOU SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SPORADIC LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
MAINLY BE LIQUID. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSITION OVER TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. THIS TRANSITION
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. THE TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SLEET AND SNOW SHOULD OCCUR RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS
NORTHER...CENTRAL...AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...KEEPING TOTAL ICE
ACCUMULATIONS TO A MINIMUM. THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET/SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM
CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY TAPERING
OFF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

REGARDING ACCUMULATIONS...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS QUITE HIGH. THE ONE
THING WE ARE CONFIDENT IN IS THAT WIDESPREAD SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW...AFFECTING ALL OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIKELY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. FURTHER
SOUTH...FROM NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF A
QUARTER TO A HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ON TOP. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK TO BE FAIRLY MINOR OVER SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...BUT SIGNIFICANT SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE INCH
MAY OCCUR LOCALLY...AND FREEZING RAIN MAY LEAD ONE TO TWO TENTHS
OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION.

IMPACTS TO TRAVEL AND COMMERCE WILL BE WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH GROUND TEMPERATURES MAY WARM TODAY...SNOW
AND SLEET...AND THE RAPIDLY COOLING AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE ARCTIC
AIR...WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET AND ICE
ON AREA ROADWAYS...SIDEWALKS...AND VEHICLES. IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
WILL FIRST BE FELT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...AS SNOW AND SOME
SLEET ADD UP FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...WILL
SEE ACCUMULATING SLEET AND SNOW FROM 6 AM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...BEING
LAST TO FALL BELOW FREEZING...PROBABLY WONT SEE SLEET AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

FOR NOW...WE WILL HANDLE THIS WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM WITH A
STRONGLY WORDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. AS ADDITIONAL MODEL
GUIDANCE BECOMES AVAILABLE...AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON EXPECTED
IMPACTS...PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE UPGRADED TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING. PLEASE CHECK BACK WITH US FREQUENTLY AS THE
FORECAST CONTINUES TO EVOLVE REGARDING THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
WINTER STORM SYSTEM.

BY THE TIME WE GET TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW AND SLEET WILL BE
WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...WITH THE CONTINUED
PRESENCE OF ARCTIC AIR...ROADS AND SIDEWALKS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SNOW AND SLEET PACKED. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW TEENS AND UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS.

THE GOOD NEWS IS...ONCE WE GET TO FRIDAY...WE ARE DUE FOR A
PRONOUNCED WARM UP...AND SUBSTANTIAL MELTING OF SNOW AND ICE
SHOULD OCCUR...WITH IMPROVING ROADS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BY THIS
COMING WEEKEND...WE WILL BE ASKING OURSELVES WHERE WINTER
WENT...AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S...PERHAPS EVEN WARMER IF YOU`RE LUCKY.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  30  21  37 /  60  90  50  10
HOBART OK         27  30  18  36 /  50  70  40  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  34  35  21  36 /  70  90  60  10
GAGE OK           21  24  11  38 /  80  80  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     23  26  16  35 /  50  70  40  10
DURANT OK         39  41  23  37 /  80  90  80  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR OKZ019-020-022>048-050>052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ004>018-021.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 040018
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
618 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
COLD AIR WILL MAKE A QUICK RETURN TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY 18Z WEDNESDAY...ALL TERMINALS WILL
BE BELOW FREEZING. WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES
WEDNESDAY WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE ONSET OF WINTER PRECIPITATION...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE A QUICK TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW. THE
WINTER PRECIP WILL LINGER PAST 00Z THURSDAY...BUT SHOULD END AT
ALL SITES BY 06Z THURSDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE THE LIKLIHOOD
OF WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SLEET AND SNOW...AND SOME FREEZING
RAIN...FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IF YOU STEP OUTSIDE RIGHT NOW...YOU MIGHT JUST THINK WE ARE
MAKING THINGS UP WHEN WE SPEAK OF WINTER WEATHER. NOT TO WORRY.
THE COLD AIR IS ON ITS WAY. WHILE THE PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT HAS
ALREADY ENTERED NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...THE COLD AIR IS LAGGING
QUITE A BIT. PLEASE DONT LET THIS BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMER WEATHER
FOOL YOU. WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF NASTY WINTER WEATHER
TOMORROW...AND YOU SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SPORADIC LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
MAINLY BE LIQUID. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSITION OVER TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. THIS TRANSITION
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. THE TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SLEET AND SNOW SHOULD OCCUR RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS
NORTHER...CENTRAL...AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...KEEPING TOTAL ICE
ACCUMULATIONS TO A MINIMUM. THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET/SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM
CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY TAPERING
OFF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

REGARDING ACCUMULATIONS...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS QUITE HIGH. THE ONE
THING WE ARE CONFIDENT IN IS THAT WIDESPREAD SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW...AFFECTING ALL OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIKELY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. FURTHER
SOUTH...FROM NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF A
QUARTER TO A HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ON TOP. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK TO BE FAIRLY MINOR OVER SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...BUT SIGNIFICANT SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE INCH
MAY OCCUR LOCALLY...AND FREEZING RAIN MAY LEAD ONE TO TWO TENTHS
OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION.

IMPACTS TO TRAVEL AND COMMERCE WILL BE WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH GROUND TEMPERATURES MAY WARM TODAY...SNOW
AND SLEET...AND THE RAPIDLY COOLING AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE ARCTIC
AIR...WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET AND ICE
ON AREA ROADWAYS...SIDEWALKS...AND VEHICLES. IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
WILL FIRST BE FELT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...AS SNOW AND SOME
SLEET ADD UP FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...WILL
SEE ACCUMULATING SLEET AND SNOW FROM 6 AM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...BEING
LAST TO FALL BELOW FREEZING...PROBABLY WONT SEE SLEET AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

FOR NOW...WE WILL HANDLE THIS WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM WITH A
STRONGLY WORDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. AS ADDITIONAL MODEL
GUIDANCE BECOMES AVAILABLE...AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON EXPECTED
IMPACTS...PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE UPGRADED TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING. PLEASE CHECK BACK WITH US FREQUENTLY AS THE
FORECAST CONTINUES TO EVOLVE REGARDING THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
WINTER STORM SYSTEM.

BY THE TIME WE GET TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW AND SLEET WILL BE
WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...WITH THE CONTINUED
PRESENCE OF ARCTIC AIR...ROADS AND SIDEWALKS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SNOW AND SLEET PACKED. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW TEENS AND UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS.

THE GOOD NEWS IS...ONCE WE GET TO FRIDAY...WE ARE DUE FOR A
PRONOUNCED WARM UP...AND SUBSTANTIAL MELTING OF SNOW AND ICE
SHOULD OCCUR...WITH IMPROVING ROADS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BY THIS
COMING WEEKEND...WE WILL BE ASKING OURSELVES WHERE WINTER
WENT...AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S...PERHAPS EVEN WARMER IF YOU`RE LUCKY.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  30  21  37 /  60  90  50  10
HOBART OK         27  30  18  36 /  50  70  40  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  34  35  21  36 /  70  90  60  10
GAGE OK           21  24  11  38 /  80  80  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     23  26  16  35 /  50  70  40  10
DURANT OK         39  41  23  37 /  80  90  80  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR OKZ019-020-022>048-050>052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ004>018-021.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 040018
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
618 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
COLD AIR WILL MAKE A QUICK RETURN TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY 18Z WEDNESDAY...ALL TERMINALS WILL
BE BELOW FREEZING. WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES
WEDNESDAY WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE ONSET OF WINTER PRECIPITATION...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE A QUICK TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW. THE
WINTER PRECIP WILL LINGER PAST 00Z THURSDAY...BUT SHOULD END AT
ALL SITES BY 06Z THURSDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE THE LIKLIHOOD
OF WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SLEET AND SNOW...AND SOME FREEZING
RAIN...FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IF YOU STEP OUTSIDE RIGHT NOW...YOU MIGHT JUST THINK WE ARE
MAKING THINGS UP WHEN WE SPEAK OF WINTER WEATHER. NOT TO WORRY.
THE COLD AIR IS ON ITS WAY. WHILE THE PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT HAS
ALREADY ENTERED NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...THE COLD AIR IS LAGGING
QUITE A BIT. PLEASE DONT LET THIS BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMER WEATHER
FOOL YOU. WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF NASTY WINTER WEATHER
TOMORROW...AND YOU SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SPORADIC LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
MAINLY BE LIQUID. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSITION OVER TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. THIS TRANSITION
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. THE TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SLEET AND SNOW SHOULD OCCUR RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS
NORTHER...CENTRAL...AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...KEEPING TOTAL ICE
ACCUMULATIONS TO A MINIMUM. THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET/SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM
CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY TAPERING
OFF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

REGARDING ACCUMULATIONS...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS QUITE HIGH. THE ONE
THING WE ARE CONFIDENT IN IS THAT WIDESPREAD SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW...AFFECTING ALL OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIKELY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. FURTHER
SOUTH...FROM NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF A
QUARTER TO A HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ON TOP. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK TO BE FAIRLY MINOR OVER SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...BUT SIGNIFICANT SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE INCH
MAY OCCUR LOCALLY...AND FREEZING RAIN MAY LEAD ONE TO TWO TENTHS
OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION.

IMPACTS TO TRAVEL AND COMMERCE WILL BE WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH GROUND TEMPERATURES MAY WARM TODAY...SNOW
AND SLEET...AND THE RAPIDLY COOLING AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE ARCTIC
AIR...WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET AND ICE
ON AREA ROADWAYS...SIDEWALKS...AND VEHICLES. IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
WILL FIRST BE FELT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...AS SNOW AND SOME
SLEET ADD UP FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...WILL
SEE ACCUMULATING SLEET AND SNOW FROM 6 AM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...BEING
LAST TO FALL BELOW FREEZING...PROBABLY WONT SEE SLEET AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

FOR NOW...WE WILL HANDLE THIS WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM WITH A
STRONGLY WORDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. AS ADDITIONAL MODEL
GUIDANCE BECOMES AVAILABLE...AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON EXPECTED
IMPACTS...PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE UPGRADED TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING. PLEASE CHECK BACK WITH US FREQUENTLY AS THE
FORECAST CONTINUES TO EVOLVE REGARDING THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
WINTER STORM SYSTEM.

BY THE TIME WE GET TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW AND SLEET WILL BE
WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...WITH THE CONTINUED
PRESENCE OF ARCTIC AIR...ROADS AND SIDEWALKS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SNOW AND SLEET PACKED. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW TEENS AND UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS.

THE GOOD NEWS IS...ONCE WE GET TO FRIDAY...WE ARE DUE FOR A
PRONOUNCED WARM UP...AND SUBSTANTIAL MELTING OF SNOW AND ICE
SHOULD OCCUR...WITH IMPROVING ROADS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BY THIS
COMING WEEKEND...WE WILL BE ASKING OURSELVES WHERE WINTER
WENT...AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S...PERHAPS EVEN WARMER IF YOU`RE LUCKY.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  30  21  37 /  60  90  50  10
HOBART OK         27  30  18  36 /  50  70  40  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  34  35  21  36 /  70  90  60  10
GAGE OK           21  24  11  38 /  80  80  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     23  26  16  35 /  50  70  40  10
DURANT OK         39  41  23  37 /  80  90  80  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR OKZ019-020-022>048-050>052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ004>018-021.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KTSA 032349
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
549 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
COLD FRONT WORKING THROUGH E OK NW AR BY 07Z. RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO FREEZING RAIN THEN MAINLY SLEET. GENERALLY 5 TO 7 HOUR
PERIOD OF SLEET FOLLOWED BY SNOW. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS...
ESPECIALLY SE OK AND NW AR. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING FROM NW
LATE IN TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

ONLY REAL WEATHER ISSUE AT HAND OVER THE COMING WEEK IS THE WINTER
STORM SET TO AFFECT EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LARGE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
POURING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS REGION AHEAD OF A
LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA. OBSERVED AND FORECAST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AT LEAST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THIS AMPLE MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...WIDESPREAD
RAIN...SOME OF IT POSSIBLY CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 AND LARGELY AFTER THE 9 PM
TO MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME TONIGHT...AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...PRECIPITATION INTENSITY
WILL INCREASE AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG UPPER JET
MOVES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A REGION OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH WHERE THIS GREATER
FORCING SETS UP. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SWEEPS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA...PUSHING THE MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

THE ABOVE ADDRESSES PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...BUT
WHAT ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPES? ONE BIG CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
BASED ON THE LATEST DATA AND CURRENT LINE OF THINKING IS THAT THE
COLDEST AIR BEHIND TONIGHTS COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE
THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT
AREAS FROM FORT SMITH TO HUGO MIGHT NOT FALL BELOW FREEZING UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...A GOOD PORTION OF THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO FALL AS RAIN IN
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...IF COLD AIR ARRIVES JUST A COUPLE OF
HOURS SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...FREEZING RAIN AND
ASSOCIATED ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE A BIGGER IMPACT. SLEET/SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE LARGER AS WELL. ALSO...THE COLD AIR SHOULD
DEEPEN FAIRLY QUICKLY...LEAVING ONLY A SMALL TEMPORAL WINDOW IN
MOST AREAS FOR FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION PRIOR TO TRANSITIONING
TO SLEET AND FINALLY SNOW. SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS /ESPECIALLY MADISON...SOUTHERN CARROLL...AND EASTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES/ COULD SEE MORE FREEZING RAIN IMPACT DUE TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM ELEVATION DIFFERENCES. THE SAME EFFECT
COULD IMPACT SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO
SNOW ACROSS EVEN FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ENDING PRIOR TO SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING.

THE COUNTIES THAT HAVE BEEN PUT IN A WINTER STORM WARNING WERE
CHOSEN LARGELY BECAUSE THE COMBINATION OF LOCALLY HIGHER ICE
ACCUMULATIONS...AS WELL AS THE LARGER SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...
COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS...ESPECIALLY TO TRAVEL...BUT ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF POWER DISRUPTIONS. AS ALLUDED TO
PREVIOUSLY...TERRAIN DIFFERENCES WERE A MAJOR PLAYER IN THOSE
DECISIONS.

FROM THURSDAY ON...THE POLAR JET WILL LARGELY BE FORCED INTO THE
NORTHERN UNITED STATES...LEADING TO QUIET...DRY...AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY...WARMER WEATHER FOR OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. HIGHS BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE PUSHING 60 IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND
POSSIBLY NEARING 70 BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   28  30  15  34 /  80 100  50  10
FSM   41  43  21  34 /  90 100  90  10
MLC   37  40  19  35 /  80 100  90  10
BVO   24  27  13  35 /  80  90  30  10
FYV   30  32  15  31 /  80 100  70  10
BYV   29  31  14  30 /  80 100  70  10
MKO   33  36  16  33 /  80 100  70  10
MIO   25  28  11  32 /  80 100  40  10
F10   32  34  17  34 /  80 100  70  10
HHW   47  49  23  38 /  80 100  90  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ049-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ053-OKZ073-OKZ074.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ001.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...21






000
FXUS64 KTSA 032349
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
549 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
COLD FRONT WORKING THROUGH E OK NW AR BY 07Z. RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO FREEZING RAIN THEN MAINLY SLEET. GENERALLY 5 TO 7 HOUR
PERIOD OF SLEET FOLLOWED BY SNOW. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS...
ESPECIALLY SE OK AND NW AR. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING FROM NW
LATE IN TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

ONLY REAL WEATHER ISSUE AT HAND OVER THE COMING WEEK IS THE WINTER
STORM SET TO AFFECT EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LARGE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
POURING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS REGION AHEAD OF A
LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA. OBSERVED AND FORECAST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AT LEAST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THIS AMPLE MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...WIDESPREAD
RAIN...SOME OF IT POSSIBLY CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 AND LARGELY AFTER THE 9 PM
TO MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME TONIGHT...AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...PRECIPITATION INTENSITY
WILL INCREASE AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG UPPER JET
MOVES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A REGION OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH WHERE THIS GREATER
FORCING SETS UP. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SWEEPS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA...PUSHING THE MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

THE ABOVE ADDRESSES PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...BUT
WHAT ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPES? ONE BIG CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
BASED ON THE LATEST DATA AND CURRENT LINE OF THINKING IS THAT THE
COLDEST AIR BEHIND TONIGHTS COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE
THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT
AREAS FROM FORT SMITH TO HUGO MIGHT NOT FALL BELOW FREEZING UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...A GOOD PORTION OF THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO FALL AS RAIN IN
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...IF COLD AIR ARRIVES JUST A COUPLE OF
HOURS SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...FREEZING RAIN AND
ASSOCIATED ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE A BIGGER IMPACT. SLEET/SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE LARGER AS WELL. ALSO...THE COLD AIR SHOULD
DEEPEN FAIRLY QUICKLY...LEAVING ONLY A SMALL TEMPORAL WINDOW IN
MOST AREAS FOR FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION PRIOR TO TRANSITIONING
TO SLEET AND FINALLY SNOW. SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS /ESPECIALLY MADISON...SOUTHERN CARROLL...AND EASTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES/ COULD SEE MORE FREEZING RAIN IMPACT DUE TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM ELEVATION DIFFERENCES. THE SAME EFFECT
COULD IMPACT SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO
SNOW ACROSS EVEN FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ENDING PRIOR TO SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING.

THE COUNTIES THAT HAVE BEEN PUT IN A WINTER STORM WARNING WERE
CHOSEN LARGELY BECAUSE THE COMBINATION OF LOCALLY HIGHER ICE
ACCUMULATIONS...AS WELL AS THE LARGER SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...
COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS...ESPECIALLY TO TRAVEL...BUT ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF POWER DISRUPTIONS. AS ALLUDED TO
PREVIOUSLY...TERRAIN DIFFERENCES WERE A MAJOR PLAYER IN THOSE
DECISIONS.

FROM THURSDAY ON...THE POLAR JET WILL LARGELY BE FORCED INTO THE
NORTHERN UNITED STATES...LEADING TO QUIET...DRY...AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY...WARMER WEATHER FOR OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. HIGHS BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE PUSHING 60 IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND
POSSIBLY NEARING 70 BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   28  30  15  34 /  80 100  50  10
FSM   41  43  21  34 /  90 100  90  10
MLC   37  40  19  35 /  80 100  90  10
BVO   24  27  13  35 /  80  90  30  10
FYV   30  32  15  31 /  80 100  70  10
BYV   29  31  14  30 /  80 100  70  10
MKO   33  36  16  33 /  80 100  70  10
MIO   25  28  11  32 /  80 100  40  10
F10   32  34  17  34 /  80 100  70  10
HHW   47  49  23  38 /  80 100  90  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ049-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ053-OKZ073-OKZ074.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ001.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...21






000
FXUS64 KTSA 032349
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
549 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
COLD FRONT WORKING THROUGH E OK NW AR BY 07Z. RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO FREEZING RAIN THEN MAINLY SLEET. GENERALLY 5 TO 7 HOUR
PERIOD OF SLEET FOLLOWED BY SNOW. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS...
ESPECIALLY SE OK AND NW AR. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING FROM NW
LATE IN TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

ONLY REAL WEATHER ISSUE AT HAND OVER THE COMING WEEK IS THE WINTER
STORM SET TO AFFECT EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LARGE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
POURING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS REGION AHEAD OF A
LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA. OBSERVED AND FORECAST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AT LEAST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THIS AMPLE MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...WIDESPREAD
RAIN...SOME OF IT POSSIBLY CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 AND LARGELY AFTER THE 9 PM
TO MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME TONIGHT...AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...PRECIPITATION INTENSITY
WILL INCREASE AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG UPPER JET
MOVES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A REGION OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH WHERE THIS GREATER
FORCING SETS UP. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SWEEPS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA...PUSHING THE MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

THE ABOVE ADDRESSES PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...BUT
WHAT ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPES? ONE BIG CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
BASED ON THE LATEST DATA AND CURRENT LINE OF THINKING IS THAT THE
COLDEST AIR BEHIND TONIGHTS COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE
THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT
AREAS FROM FORT SMITH TO HUGO MIGHT NOT FALL BELOW FREEZING UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...A GOOD PORTION OF THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO FALL AS RAIN IN
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...IF COLD AIR ARRIVES JUST A COUPLE OF
HOURS SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...FREEZING RAIN AND
ASSOCIATED ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE A BIGGER IMPACT. SLEET/SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE LARGER AS WELL. ALSO...THE COLD AIR SHOULD
DEEPEN FAIRLY QUICKLY...LEAVING ONLY A SMALL TEMPORAL WINDOW IN
MOST AREAS FOR FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION PRIOR TO TRANSITIONING
TO SLEET AND FINALLY SNOW. SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS /ESPECIALLY MADISON...SOUTHERN CARROLL...AND EASTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES/ COULD SEE MORE FREEZING RAIN IMPACT DUE TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM ELEVATION DIFFERENCES. THE SAME EFFECT
COULD IMPACT SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO
SNOW ACROSS EVEN FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ENDING PRIOR TO SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING.

THE COUNTIES THAT HAVE BEEN PUT IN A WINTER STORM WARNING WERE
CHOSEN LARGELY BECAUSE THE COMBINATION OF LOCALLY HIGHER ICE
ACCUMULATIONS...AS WELL AS THE LARGER SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...
COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS...ESPECIALLY TO TRAVEL...BUT ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF POWER DISRUPTIONS. AS ALLUDED TO
PREVIOUSLY...TERRAIN DIFFERENCES WERE A MAJOR PLAYER IN THOSE
DECISIONS.

FROM THURSDAY ON...THE POLAR JET WILL LARGELY BE FORCED INTO THE
NORTHERN UNITED STATES...LEADING TO QUIET...DRY...AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY...WARMER WEATHER FOR OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. HIGHS BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE PUSHING 60 IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND
POSSIBLY NEARING 70 BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   28  30  15  34 /  80 100  50  10
FSM   41  43  21  34 /  90 100  90  10
MLC   37  40  19  35 /  80 100  90  10
BVO   24  27  13  35 /  80  90  30  10
FYV   30  32  15  31 /  80 100  70  10
BYV   29  31  14  30 /  80 100  70  10
MKO   33  36  16  33 /  80 100  70  10
MIO   25  28  11  32 /  80 100  40  10
F10   32  34  17  34 /  80 100  70  10
HHW   47  49  23  38 /  80 100  90  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ049-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ053-OKZ073-OKZ074.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ001.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...21






000
FXUS64 KTSA 032349
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
549 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
COLD FRONT WORKING THROUGH E OK NW AR BY 07Z. RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO FREEZING RAIN THEN MAINLY SLEET. GENERALLY 5 TO 7 HOUR
PERIOD OF SLEET FOLLOWED BY SNOW. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS...
ESPECIALLY SE OK AND NW AR. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING FROM NW
LATE IN TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

ONLY REAL WEATHER ISSUE AT HAND OVER THE COMING WEEK IS THE WINTER
STORM SET TO AFFECT EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LARGE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
POURING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS REGION AHEAD OF A
LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA. OBSERVED AND FORECAST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AT LEAST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THIS AMPLE MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...WIDESPREAD
RAIN...SOME OF IT POSSIBLY CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 AND LARGELY AFTER THE 9 PM
TO MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME TONIGHT...AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...PRECIPITATION INTENSITY
WILL INCREASE AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG UPPER JET
MOVES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A REGION OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH WHERE THIS GREATER
FORCING SETS UP. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SWEEPS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA...PUSHING THE MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

THE ABOVE ADDRESSES PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...BUT
WHAT ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPES? ONE BIG CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
BASED ON THE LATEST DATA AND CURRENT LINE OF THINKING IS THAT THE
COLDEST AIR BEHIND TONIGHTS COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE
THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT
AREAS FROM FORT SMITH TO HUGO MIGHT NOT FALL BELOW FREEZING UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...A GOOD PORTION OF THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO FALL AS RAIN IN
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...IF COLD AIR ARRIVES JUST A COUPLE OF
HOURS SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...FREEZING RAIN AND
ASSOCIATED ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE A BIGGER IMPACT. SLEET/SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE LARGER AS WELL. ALSO...THE COLD AIR SHOULD
DEEPEN FAIRLY QUICKLY...LEAVING ONLY A SMALL TEMPORAL WINDOW IN
MOST AREAS FOR FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION PRIOR TO TRANSITIONING
TO SLEET AND FINALLY SNOW. SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS /ESPECIALLY MADISON...SOUTHERN CARROLL...AND EASTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES/ COULD SEE MORE FREEZING RAIN IMPACT DUE TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM ELEVATION DIFFERENCES. THE SAME EFFECT
COULD IMPACT SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO
SNOW ACROSS EVEN FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ENDING PRIOR TO SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING.

THE COUNTIES THAT HAVE BEEN PUT IN A WINTER STORM WARNING WERE
CHOSEN LARGELY BECAUSE THE COMBINATION OF LOCALLY HIGHER ICE
ACCUMULATIONS...AS WELL AS THE LARGER SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...
COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS...ESPECIALLY TO TRAVEL...BUT ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF POWER DISRUPTIONS. AS ALLUDED TO
PREVIOUSLY...TERRAIN DIFFERENCES WERE A MAJOR PLAYER IN THOSE
DECISIONS.

FROM THURSDAY ON...THE POLAR JET WILL LARGELY BE FORCED INTO THE
NORTHERN UNITED STATES...LEADING TO QUIET...DRY...AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY...WARMER WEATHER FOR OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. HIGHS BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE PUSHING 60 IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND
POSSIBLY NEARING 70 BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   28  30  15  34 /  80 100  50  10
FSM   41  43  21  34 /  90 100  90  10
MLC   37  40  19  35 /  80 100  90  10
BVO   24  27  13  35 /  80  90  30  10
FYV   30  32  15  31 /  80 100  70  10
BYV   29  31  14  30 /  80 100  70  10
MKO   33  36  16  33 /  80 100  70  10
MIO   25  28  11  32 /  80 100  40  10
F10   32  34  17  34 /  80 100  70  10
HHW   47  49  23  38 /  80 100  90  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ049-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ053-OKZ073-OKZ074.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ001.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...21






000
FXUS64 KTSA 032349
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
549 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
COLD FRONT WORKING THROUGH E OK NW AR BY 07Z. RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO FREEZING RAIN THEN MAINLY SLEET. GENERALLY 5 TO 7 HOUR
PERIOD OF SLEET FOLLOWED BY SNOW. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS...
ESPECIALLY SE OK AND NW AR. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING FROM NW
LATE IN TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

ONLY REAL WEATHER ISSUE AT HAND OVER THE COMING WEEK IS THE WINTER
STORM SET TO AFFECT EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LARGE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
POURING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS REGION AHEAD OF A
LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA. OBSERVED AND FORECAST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AT LEAST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THIS AMPLE MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...WIDESPREAD
RAIN...SOME OF IT POSSIBLY CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 AND LARGELY AFTER THE 9 PM
TO MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME TONIGHT...AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...PRECIPITATION INTENSITY
WILL INCREASE AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG UPPER JET
MOVES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A REGION OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH WHERE THIS GREATER
FORCING SETS UP. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SWEEPS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA...PUSHING THE MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

THE ABOVE ADDRESSES PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...BUT
WHAT ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPES? ONE BIG CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
BASED ON THE LATEST DATA AND CURRENT LINE OF THINKING IS THAT THE
COLDEST AIR BEHIND TONIGHTS COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE
THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT
AREAS FROM FORT SMITH TO HUGO MIGHT NOT FALL BELOW FREEZING UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...A GOOD PORTION OF THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO FALL AS RAIN IN
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...IF COLD AIR ARRIVES JUST A COUPLE OF
HOURS SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...FREEZING RAIN AND
ASSOCIATED ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE A BIGGER IMPACT. SLEET/SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE LARGER AS WELL. ALSO...THE COLD AIR SHOULD
DEEPEN FAIRLY QUICKLY...LEAVING ONLY A SMALL TEMPORAL WINDOW IN
MOST AREAS FOR FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION PRIOR TO TRANSITIONING
TO SLEET AND FINALLY SNOW. SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS /ESPECIALLY MADISON...SOUTHERN CARROLL...AND EASTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES/ COULD SEE MORE FREEZING RAIN IMPACT DUE TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM ELEVATION DIFFERENCES. THE SAME EFFECT
COULD IMPACT SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO
SNOW ACROSS EVEN FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ENDING PRIOR TO SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING.

THE COUNTIES THAT HAVE BEEN PUT IN A WINTER STORM WARNING WERE
CHOSEN LARGELY BECAUSE THE COMBINATION OF LOCALLY HIGHER ICE
ACCUMULATIONS...AS WELL AS THE LARGER SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...
COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS...ESPECIALLY TO TRAVEL...BUT ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF POWER DISRUPTIONS. AS ALLUDED TO
PREVIOUSLY...TERRAIN DIFFERENCES WERE A MAJOR PLAYER IN THOSE
DECISIONS.

FROM THURSDAY ON...THE POLAR JET WILL LARGELY BE FORCED INTO THE
NORTHERN UNITED STATES...LEADING TO QUIET...DRY...AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY...WARMER WEATHER FOR OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. HIGHS BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE PUSHING 60 IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND
POSSIBLY NEARING 70 BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   28  30  15  34 /  80 100  50  10
FSM   41  43  21  34 /  90 100  90  10
MLC   37  40  19  35 /  80 100  90  10
BVO   24  27  13  35 /  80  90  30  10
FYV   30  32  15  31 /  80 100  70  10
BYV   29  31  14  30 /  80 100  70  10
MKO   33  36  16  33 /  80 100  70  10
MIO   25  28  11  32 /  80 100  40  10
F10   32  34  17  34 /  80 100  70  10
HHW   47  49  23  38 /  80 100  90  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ049-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ053-OKZ073-OKZ074.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ001.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...21






000
FXUS64 KTSA 032349
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
549 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
COLD FRONT WORKING THROUGH E OK NW AR BY 07Z. RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO FREEZING RAIN THEN MAINLY SLEET. GENERALLY 5 TO 7 HOUR
PERIOD OF SLEET FOLLOWED BY SNOW. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS...
ESPECIALLY SE OK AND NW AR. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING FROM NW
LATE IN TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

ONLY REAL WEATHER ISSUE AT HAND OVER THE COMING WEEK IS THE WINTER
STORM SET TO AFFECT EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LARGE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
POURING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS REGION AHEAD OF A
LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA. OBSERVED AND FORECAST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AT LEAST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THIS AMPLE MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...WIDESPREAD
RAIN...SOME OF IT POSSIBLY CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 AND LARGELY AFTER THE 9 PM
TO MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME TONIGHT...AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...PRECIPITATION INTENSITY
WILL INCREASE AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG UPPER JET
MOVES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A REGION OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH WHERE THIS GREATER
FORCING SETS UP. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SWEEPS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA...PUSHING THE MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

THE ABOVE ADDRESSES PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...BUT
WHAT ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPES? ONE BIG CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
BASED ON THE LATEST DATA AND CURRENT LINE OF THINKING IS THAT THE
COLDEST AIR BEHIND TONIGHTS COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE
THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT
AREAS FROM FORT SMITH TO HUGO MIGHT NOT FALL BELOW FREEZING UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...A GOOD PORTION OF THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO FALL AS RAIN IN
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...IF COLD AIR ARRIVES JUST A COUPLE OF
HOURS SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...FREEZING RAIN AND
ASSOCIATED ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE A BIGGER IMPACT. SLEET/SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE LARGER AS WELL. ALSO...THE COLD AIR SHOULD
DEEPEN FAIRLY QUICKLY...LEAVING ONLY A SMALL TEMPORAL WINDOW IN
MOST AREAS FOR FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION PRIOR TO TRANSITIONING
TO SLEET AND FINALLY SNOW. SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS /ESPECIALLY MADISON...SOUTHERN CARROLL...AND EASTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES/ COULD SEE MORE FREEZING RAIN IMPACT DUE TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM ELEVATION DIFFERENCES. THE SAME EFFECT
COULD IMPACT SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO
SNOW ACROSS EVEN FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ENDING PRIOR TO SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING.

THE COUNTIES THAT HAVE BEEN PUT IN A WINTER STORM WARNING WERE
CHOSEN LARGELY BECAUSE THE COMBINATION OF LOCALLY HIGHER ICE
ACCUMULATIONS...AS WELL AS THE LARGER SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...
COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS...ESPECIALLY TO TRAVEL...BUT ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF POWER DISRUPTIONS. AS ALLUDED TO
PREVIOUSLY...TERRAIN DIFFERENCES WERE A MAJOR PLAYER IN THOSE
DECISIONS.

FROM THURSDAY ON...THE POLAR JET WILL LARGELY BE FORCED INTO THE
NORTHERN UNITED STATES...LEADING TO QUIET...DRY...AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY...WARMER WEATHER FOR OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. HIGHS BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE PUSHING 60 IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND
POSSIBLY NEARING 70 BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   28  30  15  34 /  80 100  50  10
FSM   41  43  21  34 /  90 100  90  10
MLC   37  40  19  35 /  80 100  90  10
BVO   24  27  13  35 /  80  90  30  10
FYV   30  32  15  31 /  80 100  70  10
BYV   29  31  14  30 /  80 100  70  10
MKO   33  36  16  33 /  80 100  70  10
MIO   25  28  11  32 /  80 100  40  10
F10   32  34  17  34 /  80 100  70  10
HHW   47  49  23  38 /  80 100  90  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ049-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ053-OKZ073-OKZ074.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ001.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...21






000
FXUS64 KTSA 032349
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
549 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
COLD FRONT WORKING THROUGH E OK NW AR BY 07Z. RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO FREEZING RAIN THEN MAINLY SLEET. GENERALLY 5 TO 7 HOUR
PERIOD OF SLEET FOLLOWED BY SNOW. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS...
ESPECIALLY SE OK AND NW AR. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING FROM NW
LATE IN TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

ONLY REAL WEATHER ISSUE AT HAND OVER THE COMING WEEK IS THE WINTER
STORM SET TO AFFECT EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LARGE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
POURING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS REGION AHEAD OF A
LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA. OBSERVED AND FORECAST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AT LEAST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THIS AMPLE MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...WIDESPREAD
RAIN...SOME OF IT POSSIBLY CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 AND LARGELY AFTER THE 9 PM
TO MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME TONIGHT...AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...PRECIPITATION INTENSITY
WILL INCREASE AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG UPPER JET
MOVES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A REGION OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH WHERE THIS GREATER
FORCING SETS UP. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SWEEPS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA...PUSHING THE MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

THE ABOVE ADDRESSES PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...BUT
WHAT ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPES? ONE BIG CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
BASED ON THE LATEST DATA AND CURRENT LINE OF THINKING IS THAT THE
COLDEST AIR BEHIND TONIGHTS COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE
THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT
AREAS FROM FORT SMITH TO HUGO MIGHT NOT FALL BELOW FREEZING UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...A GOOD PORTION OF THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO FALL AS RAIN IN
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...IF COLD AIR ARRIVES JUST A COUPLE OF
HOURS SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...FREEZING RAIN AND
ASSOCIATED ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE A BIGGER IMPACT. SLEET/SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE LARGER AS WELL. ALSO...THE COLD AIR SHOULD
DEEPEN FAIRLY QUICKLY...LEAVING ONLY A SMALL TEMPORAL WINDOW IN
MOST AREAS FOR FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION PRIOR TO TRANSITIONING
TO SLEET AND FINALLY SNOW. SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS /ESPECIALLY MADISON...SOUTHERN CARROLL...AND EASTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES/ COULD SEE MORE FREEZING RAIN IMPACT DUE TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM ELEVATION DIFFERENCES. THE SAME EFFECT
COULD IMPACT SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO
SNOW ACROSS EVEN FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ENDING PRIOR TO SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING.

THE COUNTIES THAT HAVE BEEN PUT IN A WINTER STORM WARNING WERE
CHOSEN LARGELY BECAUSE THE COMBINATION OF LOCALLY HIGHER ICE
ACCUMULATIONS...AS WELL AS THE LARGER SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...
COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS...ESPECIALLY TO TRAVEL...BUT ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF POWER DISRUPTIONS. AS ALLUDED TO
PREVIOUSLY...TERRAIN DIFFERENCES WERE A MAJOR PLAYER IN THOSE
DECISIONS.

FROM THURSDAY ON...THE POLAR JET WILL LARGELY BE FORCED INTO THE
NORTHERN UNITED STATES...LEADING TO QUIET...DRY...AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY...WARMER WEATHER FOR OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. HIGHS BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE PUSHING 60 IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND
POSSIBLY NEARING 70 BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   28  30  15  34 /  80 100  50  10
FSM   41  43  21  34 /  90 100  90  10
MLC   37  40  19  35 /  80 100  90  10
BVO   24  27  13  35 /  80  90  30  10
FYV   30  32  15  31 /  80 100  70  10
BYV   29  31  14  30 /  80 100  70  10
MKO   33  36  16  33 /  80 100  70  10
MIO   25  28  11  32 /  80 100  40  10
F10   32  34  17  34 /  80 100  70  10
HHW   47  49  23  38 /  80 100  90  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ049-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ053-OKZ073-OKZ074.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ001.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...21






000
FXUS64 KTSA 032349
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
549 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
COLD FRONT WORKING THROUGH E OK NW AR BY 07Z. RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO FREEZING RAIN THEN MAINLY SLEET. GENERALLY 5 TO 7 HOUR
PERIOD OF SLEET FOLLOWED BY SNOW. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS...
ESPECIALLY SE OK AND NW AR. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING FROM NW
LATE IN TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

ONLY REAL WEATHER ISSUE AT HAND OVER THE COMING WEEK IS THE WINTER
STORM SET TO AFFECT EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LARGE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
POURING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS REGION AHEAD OF A
LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA. OBSERVED AND FORECAST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AT LEAST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THIS AMPLE MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...WIDESPREAD
RAIN...SOME OF IT POSSIBLY CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 AND LARGELY AFTER THE 9 PM
TO MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME TONIGHT...AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...PRECIPITATION INTENSITY
WILL INCREASE AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG UPPER JET
MOVES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A REGION OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH WHERE THIS GREATER
FORCING SETS UP. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SWEEPS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA...PUSHING THE MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

THE ABOVE ADDRESSES PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...BUT
WHAT ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPES? ONE BIG CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
BASED ON THE LATEST DATA AND CURRENT LINE OF THINKING IS THAT THE
COLDEST AIR BEHIND TONIGHTS COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE
THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT
AREAS FROM FORT SMITH TO HUGO MIGHT NOT FALL BELOW FREEZING UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...A GOOD PORTION OF THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO FALL AS RAIN IN
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...IF COLD AIR ARRIVES JUST A COUPLE OF
HOURS SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...FREEZING RAIN AND
ASSOCIATED ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE A BIGGER IMPACT. SLEET/SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE LARGER AS WELL. ALSO...THE COLD AIR SHOULD
DEEPEN FAIRLY QUICKLY...LEAVING ONLY A SMALL TEMPORAL WINDOW IN
MOST AREAS FOR FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION PRIOR TO TRANSITIONING
TO SLEET AND FINALLY SNOW. SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS /ESPECIALLY MADISON...SOUTHERN CARROLL...AND EASTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES/ COULD SEE MORE FREEZING RAIN IMPACT DUE TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM ELEVATION DIFFERENCES. THE SAME EFFECT
COULD IMPACT SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO
SNOW ACROSS EVEN FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ENDING PRIOR TO SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING.

THE COUNTIES THAT HAVE BEEN PUT IN A WINTER STORM WARNING WERE
CHOSEN LARGELY BECAUSE THE COMBINATION OF LOCALLY HIGHER ICE
ACCUMULATIONS...AS WELL AS THE LARGER SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...
COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS...ESPECIALLY TO TRAVEL...BUT ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF POWER DISRUPTIONS. AS ALLUDED TO
PREVIOUSLY...TERRAIN DIFFERENCES WERE A MAJOR PLAYER IN THOSE
DECISIONS.

FROM THURSDAY ON...THE POLAR JET WILL LARGELY BE FORCED INTO THE
NORTHERN UNITED STATES...LEADING TO QUIET...DRY...AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY...WARMER WEATHER FOR OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. HIGHS BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE PUSHING 60 IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND
POSSIBLY NEARING 70 BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   28  30  15  34 /  80 100  50  10
FSM   41  43  21  34 /  90 100  90  10
MLC   37  40  19  35 /  80 100  90  10
BVO   24  27  13  35 /  80  90  30  10
FYV   30  32  15  31 /  80 100  70  10
BYV   29  31  14  30 /  80 100  70  10
MKO   33  36  16  33 /  80 100  70  10
MIO   25  28  11  32 /  80 100  40  10
F10   32  34  17  34 /  80 100  70  10
HHW   47  49  23  38 /  80 100  90  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ049-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ053-OKZ073-OKZ074.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ001.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...21






000
FXUS64 KOUN 032144
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
344 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE THE LIKLIHOOD
OF WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SLEET AND SNOW...AND SOME FREEZING
RAIN...FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IF YOU STEP OUTSIDE RIGHT NOW...YOU MIGHT JUST THINK WE ARE
MAKING THINGS UP WHEN WE SPEAK OF WINTER WEATHER. NOT TO WORRY.
THE COLD AIR IS ON ITS WAY. WHILE THE PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT HAS
ALREADY ENTERED NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...THE COLD AIR IS LAGGING
QUITE A BIT. PLEASE DONT LET THIS BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMER WEATHER
FOOL YOU. WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF NASTY WINTER WEATHER
TOMORROW...AND YOU SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SPORADIC LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
MAINLY BE LIQUID. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSITION OVER TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. THIS TRANSITION
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. THE TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SLEET AND SNOW SHOULD OCCUR RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS
NORTHER...CENTRAL...AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...KEEPING TOTAL ICE
ACCUMULATIONS TO A MINIMUM. THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET/SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM
CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY TAPERING
OFF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

REGARDING ACCUMULATIONS...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS QUITE HIGH. THE ONE
THING WE ARE CONFIDENT IN IS THAT WIDESPREAD SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW...AFFECTING ALL OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIKELY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. FURTHER
SOUTH...FROM NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF A
QUARTER TO A HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ON TOP. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK TO BE FAIRLY MINOR OVER SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...BUT SIGNIFICANT SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE INCH
MAY OCCUR LOCALLY...AND FREEZING RAIN MAY LEAD ONE TO TWO TENTHS
OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION.

IMPACTS TO TRAVEL AND COMMERCE WILL BE WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH GROUND TEMPERATURES MAY WARM TODAY...SNOW
AND SLEET...AND THE RAPIDLY COOLING AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE ARCTIC
AIR...WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET AND ICE
ON AREA ROADWAYS...SIDEWALKS...AND VEHICLES. IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
WILL FIRST BE FELT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...AS SNOW AND SOME
SLEET ADD UP FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...WILL
SEE ACCUMULATING SLEET AND SNOW FROM 6 AM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...BEING
LAST TO FALL BELOW FREEZING...PROBABLY WONT SEE SLEET AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

FOR NOW...WE WILL HANDLE THIS WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM WITH A
STRONGLY WORDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. AS ADDITIONAL MODEL
GUIDANCE BECOMES AVAILABLE...AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON EXPECTED
IMPACTS...PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE UPGRADED TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING. PLEASE CHECK BACK WITH US FREQUENTLY AS THE
FORECAST CONTINUES TO EVOLVE REGARDING THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
WINTER STORM SYSTEM.

BY THE TIME WE GET TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW AND SLEET WILL BE
WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...WITH THE CONTINUED
PRESENCE OF ARCTIC AIR...ROADS AND SIDEWALKS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SNOW AND SLEET PACKED. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW TEENS AND UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS.

THE GOOD NEWS IS...ONCE WE GET TO FRIDAY...WE ARE DUE FOR A
PRONOUNCED WARM UP...AND SUBSTANTIAL MELTING OF SNOW AND ICE
SHOULD OCCUR...WITH IMPROVING ROADS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BY THIS
COMING WEEKEND...WE WILL BE ASKING OURSELVES WHERE WINTER
WENT...AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S...PERHAPS EVEN WARMER IF YOU`RE LUCKY.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  30  21  37 /  60  90  50  10
HOBART OK         27  30  18  36 /  50  70  40  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  34  35  21  36 /  70  90  60  10
GAGE OK           21  24  11  38 /  80  80  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     23  26  16  35 /  50  70  40  10
DURANT OK         39  41  23  37 /  80  90  80  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR OKZ019-020-022>048-050>052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ004>018-021.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

11/84



000
FXUS64 KOUN 032144
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
344 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE THE LIKLIHOOD
OF WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SLEET AND SNOW...AND SOME FREEZING
RAIN...FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IF YOU STEP OUTSIDE RIGHT NOW...YOU MIGHT JUST THINK WE ARE
MAKING THINGS UP WHEN WE SPEAK OF WINTER WEATHER. NOT TO WORRY.
THE COLD AIR IS ON ITS WAY. WHILE THE PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT HAS
ALREADY ENTERED NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...THE COLD AIR IS LAGGING
QUITE A BIT. PLEASE DONT LET THIS BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMER WEATHER
FOOL YOU. WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF NASTY WINTER WEATHER
TOMORROW...AND YOU SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SPORADIC LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
MAINLY BE LIQUID. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSITION OVER TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. THIS TRANSITION
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. THE TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SLEET AND SNOW SHOULD OCCUR RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS
NORTHER...CENTRAL...AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...KEEPING TOTAL ICE
ACCUMULATIONS TO A MINIMUM. THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET/SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM
CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY TAPERING
OFF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

REGARDING ACCUMULATIONS...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS QUITE HIGH. THE ONE
THING WE ARE CONFIDENT IN IS THAT WIDESPREAD SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW...AFFECTING ALL OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIKELY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. FURTHER
SOUTH...FROM NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF A
QUARTER TO A HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ON TOP. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK TO BE FAIRLY MINOR OVER SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...BUT SIGNIFICANT SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE INCH
MAY OCCUR LOCALLY...AND FREEZING RAIN MAY LEAD ONE TO TWO TENTHS
OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION.

IMPACTS TO TRAVEL AND COMMERCE WILL BE WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH GROUND TEMPERATURES MAY WARM TODAY...SNOW
AND SLEET...AND THE RAPIDLY COOLING AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE ARCTIC
AIR...WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET AND ICE
ON AREA ROADWAYS...SIDEWALKS...AND VEHICLES. IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
WILL FIRST BE FELT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...AS SNOW AND SOME
SLEET ADD UP FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...WILL
SEE ACCUMULATING SLEET AND SNOW FROM 6 AM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...BEING
LAST TO FALL BELOW FREEZING...PROBABLY WONT SEE SLEET AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

FOR NOW...WE WILL HANDLE THIS WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM WITH A
STRONGLY WORDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. AS ADDITIONAL MODEL
GUIDANCE BECOMES AVAILABLE...AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON EXPECTED
IMPACTS...PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE UPGRADED TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING. PLEASE CHECK BACK WITH US FREQUENTLY AS THE
FORECAST CONTINUES TO EVOLVE REGARDING THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
WINTER STORM SYSTEM.

BY THE TIME WE GET TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW AND SLEET WILL BE
WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...WITH THE CONTINUED
PRESENCE OF ARCTIC AIR...ROADS AND SIDEWALKS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SNOW AND SLEET PACKED. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW TEENS AND UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS.

THE GOOD NEWS IS...ONCE WE GET TO FRIDAY...WE ARE DUE FOR A
PRONOUNCED WARM UP...AND SUBSTANTIAL MELTING OF SNOW AND ICE
SHOULD OCCUR...WITH IMPROVING ROADS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BY THIS
COMING WEEKEND...WE WILL BE ASKING OURSELVES WHERE WINTER
WENT...AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S...PERHAPS EVEN WARMER IF YOU`RE LUCKY.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  30  21  37 /  60  90  50  10
HOBART OK         27  30  18  36 /  50  70  40  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  34  35  21  36 /  70  90  60  10
GAGE OK           21  24  11  38 /  80  80  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     23  26  16  35 /  50  70  40  10
DURANT OK         39  41  23  37 /  80  90  80  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR OKZ019-020-022>048-050>052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ004>018-021.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

11/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 032144
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
344 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE THE LIKLIHOOD
OF WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SLEET AND SNOW...AND SOME FREEZING
RAIN...FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IF YOU STEP OUTSIDE RIGHT NOW...YOU MIGHT JUST THINK WE ARE
MAKING THINGS UP WHEN WE SPEAK OF WINTER WEATHER. NOT TO WORRY.
THE COLD AIR IS ON ITS WAY. WHILE THE PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT HAS
ALREADY ENTERED NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...THE COLD AIR IS LAGGING
QUITE A BIT. PLEASE DONT LET THIS BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMER WEATHER
FOOL YOU. WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF NASTY WINTER WEATHER
TOMORROW...AND YOU SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SPORADIC LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
MAINLY BE LIQUID. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSITION OVER TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. THIS TRANSITION
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. THE TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SLEET AND SNOW SHOULD OCCUR RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS
NORTHER...CENTRAL...AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...KEEPING TOTAL ICE
ACCUMULATIONS TO A MINIMUM. THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET/SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM
CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY TAPERING
OFF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

REGARDING ACCUMULATIONS...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS QUITE HIGH. THE ONE
THING WE ARE CONFIDENT IN IS THAT WIDESPREAD SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW...AFFECTING ALL OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIKELY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. FURTHER
SOUTH...FROM NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF A
QUARTER TO A HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ON TOP. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK TO BE FAIRLY MINOR OVER SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...BUT SIGNIFICANT SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE INCH
MAY OCCUR LOCALLY...AND FREEZING RAIN MAY LEAD ONE TO TWO TENTHS
OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION.

IMPACTS TO TRAVEL AND COMMERCE WILL BE WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH GROUND TEMPERATURES MAY WARM TODAY...SNOW
AND SLEET...AND THE RAPIDLY COOLING AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE ARCTIC
AIR...WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET AND ICE
ON AREA ROADWAYS...SIDEWALKS...AND VEHICLES. IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
WILL FIRST BE FELT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...AS SNOW AND SOME
SLEET ADD UP FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...WILL
SEE ACCUMULATING SLEET AND SNOW FROM 6 AM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...BEING
LAST TO FALL BELOW FREEZING...PROBABLY WONT SEE SLEET AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

FOR NOW...WE WILL HANDLE THIS WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM WITH A
STRONGLY WORDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. AS ADDITIONAL MODEL
GUIDANCE BECOMES AVAILABLE...AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON EXPECTED
IMPACTS...PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE UPGRADED TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING. PLEASE CHECK BACK WITH US FREQUENTLY AS THE
FORECAST CONTINUES TO EVOLVE REGARDING THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
WINTER STORM SYSTEM.

BY THE TIME WE GET TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW AND SLEET WILL BE
WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...WITH THE CONTINUED
PRESENCE OF ARCTIC AIR...ROADS AND SIDEWALKS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SNOW AND SLEET PACKED. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW TEENS AND UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS.

THE GOOD NEWS IS...ONCE WE GET TO FRIDAY...WE ARE DUE FOR A
PRONOUNCED WARM UP...AND SUBSTANTIAL MELTING OF SNOW AND ICE
SHOULD OCCUR...WITH IMPROVING ROADS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BY THIS
COMING WEEKEND...WE WILL BE ASKING OURSELVES WHERE WINTER
WENT...AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S...PERHAPS EVEN WARMER IF YOU`RE LUCKY.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  30  21  37 /  60  90  50  10
HOBART OK         27  30  18  36 /  50  70  40  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  34  35  21  36 /  70  90  60  10
GAGE OK           21  24  11  38 /  80  80  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     23  26  16  35 /  50  70  40  10
DURANT OK         39  41  23  37 /  80  90  80  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR OKZ019-020-022>048-050>052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ004>018-021.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

11/84



000
FXUS64 KOUN 032144
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
344 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE THE LIKLIHOOD
OF WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SLEET AND SNOW...AND SOME FREEZING
RAIN...FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IF YOU STEP OUTSIDE RIGHT NOW...YOU MIGHT JUST THINK WE ARE
MAKING THINGS UP WHEN WE SPEAK OF WINTER WEATHER. NOT TO WORRY.
THE COLD AIR IS ON ITS WAY. WHILE THE PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT HAS
ALREADY ENTERED NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...THE COLD AIR IS LAGGING
QUITE A BIT. PLEASE DONT LET THIS BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMER WEATHER
FOOL YOU. WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF NASTY WINTER WEATHER
TOMORROW...AND YOU SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SPORADIC LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
MAINLY BE LIQUID. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSITION OVER TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. THIS TRANSITION
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. THE TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SLEET AND SNOW SHOULD OCCUR RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS
NORTHER...CENTRAL...AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...KEEPING TOTAL ICE
ACCUMULATIONS TO A MINIMUM. THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET/SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM
CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY TAPERING
OFF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

REGARDING ACCUMULATIONS...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS QUITE HIGH. THE ONE
THING WE ARE CONFIDENT IN IS THAT WIDESPREAD SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW...AFFECTING ALL OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIKELY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. FURTHER
SOUTH...FROM NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF A
QUARTER TO A HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ON TOP. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK TO BE FAIRLY MINOR OVER SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...BUT SIGNIFICANT SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE INCH
MAY OCCUR LOCALLY...AND FREEZING RAIN MAY LEAD ONE TO TWO TENTHS
OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION.

IMPACTS TO TRAVEL AND COMMERCE WILL BE WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH GROUND TEMPERATURES MAY WARM TODAY...SNOW
AND SLEET...AND THE RAPIDLY COOLING AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE ARCTIC
AIR...WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET AND ICE
ON AREA ROADWAYS...SIDEWALKS...AND VEHICLES. IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
WILL FIRST BE FELT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...AS SNOW AND SOME
SLEET ADD UP FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...WILL
SEE ACCUMULATING SLEET AND SNOW FROM 6 AM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...BEING
LAST TO FALL BELOW FREEZING...PROBABLY WONT SEE SLEET AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

FOR NOW...WE WILL HANDLE THIS WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM WITH A
STRONGLY WORDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. AS ADDITIONAL MODEL
GUIDANCE BECOMES AVAILABLE...AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON EXPECTED
IMPACTS...PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE UPGRADED TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING. PLEASE CHECK BACK WITH US FREQUENTLY AS THE
FORECAST CONTINUES TO EVOLVE REGARDING THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
WINTER STORM SYSTEM.

BY THE TIME WE GET TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW AND SLEET WILL BE
WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...WITH THE CONTINUED
PRESENCE OF ARCTIC AIR...ROADS AND SIDEWALKS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SNOW AND SLEET PACKED. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW TEENS AND UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS.

THE GOOD NEWS IS...ONCE WE GET TO FRIDAY...WE ARE DUE FOR A
PRONOUNCED WARM UP...AND SUBSTANTIAL MELTING OF SNOW AND ICE
SHOULD OCCUR...WITH IMPROVING ROADS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BY THIS
COMING WEEKEND...WE WILL BE ASKING OURSELVES WHERE WINTER
WENT...AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S...PERHAPS EVEN WARMER IF YOU`RE LUCKY.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  30  21  37 /  60  90  50  10
HOBART OK         27  30  18  36 /  50  70  40  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  34  35  21  36 /  70  90  60  10
GAGE OK           21  24  11  38 /  80  80  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     23  26  16  35 /  50  70  40  10
DURANT OK         39  41  23  37 /  80  90  80  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR OKZ019-020-022>048-050>052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ004>018-021.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

11/84




000
FXUS64 KTSA 032056
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
256 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ONLY REAL WEATHER ISSUE AT HAND OVER THE COMING WEEK IS THE WINTER
STORM SET TO AFFECT EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LARGE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
POURING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS REGION AHEAD OF A
LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA. OBSERVED AND FORECAST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AT LEAST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THIS AMPLE MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...WIDESPREAD
RAIN...SOME OF IT POSSIBLY CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 AND LARGELY AFTER THE 9 PM
TO MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME TONIGHT...AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...PRECIPITATION INTENSITY
WILL INCREASE AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG UPPER JET
MOVES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A REGION OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH WHERE THIS GREATER
FORCING SETS UP. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SWEEPS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA...PUSHING THE MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

THE ABOVE ADDRESSES PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...BUT
WHAT ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPES? ONE BIG CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
BASED ON THE LATEST DATA AND CURRENT LINE OF THINKING IS THAT THE
COLDEST AIR BEHIND TONIGHTS COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE
THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT
AREAS FROM FORT SMITH TO HUGO MIGHT NOT FALL BELOW FREEZING UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...A GOOD PORTION OF THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO FALL AS RAIN IN
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...IF COLD AIR ARRIVES JUST A COUPLE OF
HOURS SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...FREEZING RAIN AND
ASSOCIATED ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE A BIGGER IMPACT. SLEET/SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE LARGER AS WELL. ALSO...THE COLD AIR SHOULD
DEEPEN FAIRLY QUICKLY...LEAVING ONLY A SMALL TEMPORAL WINDOW IN
MOST AREAS FOR FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION PRIOR TO TRANSITIONING
TO SLEET AND FINALLY SNOW. SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS /ESPECIALLY MADISON...SOUTHERN CARROLL...AND EASTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES/ COULD SEE MORE FREEZING RAIN IMPACT DUE TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM ELEVATION DIFFERENCES. THE SAME EFFECT
COULD IMPACT SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO
SNOW ACROSS EVEN FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ENDING PRIOR TO SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING.

THE COUNTIES THAT HAVE BEEN PUT IN A WINTER STORM WARNING WERE
CHOSEN LARGELY BECAUSE THE COMBINATION OF LOCALLY HIGHER ICE
ACCUMULATIONS...AS WELL AS THE LARGER SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...
COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS...ESPECIALLY TO TRAVEL...BUT ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF POWER DISRUPTIONS. AS ALLUDED TO
PREVIOUSLY...TERRAIN DIFFERENCES WERE A MAJOR PLAYER IN THOSE
DECISIONS.

FROM THURSDAY ON...THE POLAR JET WILL LARGELY BE FORCED INTO THE
NORTHERN UNITED STATES...LEADING TO QUIET...DRY...AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY...WARMER WEATHER FOR OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. HIGHS BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE PUSHING 60 IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND
POSSIBLY NEARING 70 BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   29  30  15  34 /  80 100  50  10
FSM   42  43  21  34 /  90 100  90  10
MLC   38  40  19  35 /  80 100  90  10
BVO   25  27  13  35 /  80  90  30  10
FYV   31  32  15  31 /  80 100  70  10
BYV   30  31  14  30 /  80 100  70  10
MKO   34  36  16  33 /  80 100  70  10
MIO   26  28  11  32 /  80 100  40  10
F10   33  34  17  34 /  80 100  70  10
HHW   48  49  23  38 /  80 100  90  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ049-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ053-OKZ073-OKZ074.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ001.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

LONG TERM....22





000
FXUS64 KTSA 032056
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
256 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ONLY REAL WEATHER ISSUE AT HAND OVER THE COMING WEEK IS THE WINTER
STORM SET TO AFFECT EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LARGE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
POURING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS REGION AHEAD OF A
LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA. OBSERVED AND FORECAST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AT LEAST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THIS AMPLE MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...WIDESPREAD
RAIN...SOME OF IT POSSIBLY CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 AND LARGELY AFTER THE 9 PM
TO MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME TONIGHT...AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...PRECIPITATION INTENSITY
WILL INCREASE AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG UPPER JET
MOVES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A REGION OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH WHERE THIS GREATER
FORCING SETS UP. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SWEEPS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA...PUSHING THE MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

THE ABOVE ADDRESSES PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...BUT
WHAT ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPES? ONE BIG CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
BASED ON THE LATEST DATA AND CURRENT LINE OF THINKING IS THAT THE
COLDEST AIR BEHIND TONIGHTS COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE
THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT
AREAS FROM FORT SMITH TO HUGO MIGHT NOT FALL BELOW FREEZING UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...A GOOD PORTION OF THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO FALL AS RAIN IN
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...IF COLD AIR ARRIVES JUST A COUPLE OF
HOURS SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...FREEZING RAIN AND
ASSOCIATED ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE A BIGGER IMPACT. SLEET/SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE LARGER AS WELL. ALSO...THE COLD AIR SHOULD
DEEPEN FAIRLY QUICKLY...LEAVING ONLY A SMALL TEMPORAL WINDOW IN
MOST AREAS FOR FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION PRIOR TO TRANSITIONING
TO SLEET AND FINALLY SNOW. SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS /ESPECIALLY MADISON...SOUTHERN CARROLL...AND EASTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES/ COULD SEE MORE FREEZING RAIN IMPACT DUE TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM ELEVATION DIFFERENCES. THE SAME EFFECT
COULD IMPACT SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO
SNOW ACROSS EVEN FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ENDING PRIOR TO SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING.

THE COUNTIES THAT HAVE BEEN PUT IN A WINTER STORM WARNING WERE
CHOSEN LARGELY BECAUSE THE COMBINATION OF LOCALLY HIGHER ICE
ACCUMULATIONS...AS WELL AS THE LARGER SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...
COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS...ESPECIALLY TO TRAVEL...BUT ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF POWER DISRUPTIONS. AS ALLUDED TO
PREVIOUSLY...TERRAIN DIFFERENCES WERE A MAJOR PLAYER IN THOSE
DECISIONS.

FROM THURSDAY ON...THE POLAR JET WILL LARGELY BE FORCED INTO THE
NORTHERN UNITED STATES...LEADING TO QUIET...DRY...AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY...WARMER WEATHER FOR OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. HIGHS BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE PUSHING 60 IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND
POSSIBLY NEARING 70 BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   29  30  15  34 /  80 100  50  10
FSM   42  43  21  34 /  90 100  90  10
MLC   38  40  19  35 /  80 100  90  10
BVO   25  27  13  35 /  80  90  30  10
FYV   31  32  15  31 /  80 100  70  10
BYV   30  31  14  30 /  80 100  70  10
MKO   34  36  16  33 /  80 100  70  10
MIO   26  28  11  32 /  80 100  40  10
F10   33  34  17  34 /  80 100  70  10
HHW   48  49  23  38 /  80 100  90  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ049-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ053-OKZ073-OKZ074.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ001.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 031746
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1146 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 18Z TAFS... IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH MOST OF THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY AFTER PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.
FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY AFFECT ALL SITES BEGINNING BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FSM AND MLC WHICH
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. NO
OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
THE AFOREMENTIONED IFR WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NE OK AND NW AR AS FZRAPL CHANCES INCREASE. A FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...GUSTY
SFC WINDS OF 20-25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NE
OK AND NW AR SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTH WINDS AND RESULTANT WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED WHICH HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY DENSE AT TIMES...BUT COVERAGE
ISN`T WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT SHOWERS.

BIG WEATHER CHANGES IN STORE FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FORECAST AREA COMES UNDER THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN 180+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR WARM ENOUGH
FOR MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...BUT EXPECT A TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SLEET AND SNOW FOR NE OK AND NW AR
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR LATER
FOR SE OK AND WCNTRL AR...WITH THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY ENDING AS SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST AR STILL LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST
SHOT AT SIGNIFICANT SNOW...WITH AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...AND
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SIGNIFICANT ICING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SE OK INTO WCNTRL
AR...WITH AMOUNTS BEING HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE
SUB-FREEZING LOW-LEVEL AIR ARRIVES.

HOW TO HANDLE THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES IS A RIDICULOUSLY TOUGH
CALL. MOST OF ERN OK WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BEING THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY LATE 2ND
PERIOD (TUE NIGHT) INTO THE 3RD PERIOD (WED). CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST HAS PARTS OF NW AR...MAINLY CARROLL AND MADISON
COUNTIES...REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4+ INCHES) LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE JUST STILL ISN`T THERE FOR AN UPGRADE
TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME...SO WILL OPT TO KEEP THE WATCH AS IS.
HOPEFULLY THE 12Z DATA WILL CLEAR THINGS UP A BIT.

THURSDAY WILL BE COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM...WITH VERY
CHILLY LOWS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY MORNING. BUT A STRONG WARM UP IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 031746
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1146 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 18Z TAFS... IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH MOST OF THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY AFTER PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.
FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY AFFECT ALL SITES BEGINNING BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FSM AND MLC WHICH
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. NO
OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
THE AFOREMENTIONED IFR WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NE OK AND NW AR AS FZRAPL CHANCES INCREASE. A FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...GUSTY
SFC WINDS OF 20-25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NE
OK AND NW AR SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTH WINDS AND RESULTANT WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED WHICH HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY DENSE AT TIMES...BUT COVERAGE
ISN`T WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT SHOWERS.

BIG WEATHER CHANGES IN STORE FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FORECAST AREA COMES UNDER THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN 180+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR WARM ENOUGH
FOR MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...BUT EXPECT A TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SLEET AND SNOW FOR NE OK AND NW AR
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR LATER
FOR SE OK AND WCNTRL AR...WITH THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY ENDING AS SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST AR STILL LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST
SHOT AT SIGNIFICANT SNOW...WITH AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...AND
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SIGNIFICANT ICING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SE OK INTO WCNTRL
AR...WITH AMOUNTS BEING HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE
SUB-FREEZING LOW-LEVEL AIR ARRIVES.

HOW TO HANDLE THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES IS A RIDICULOUSLY TOUGH
CALL. MOST OF ERN OK WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BEING THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY LATE 2ND
PERIOD (TUE NIGHT) INTO THE 3RD PERIOD (WED). CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST HAS PARTS OF NW AR...MAINLY CARROLL AND MADISON
COUNTIES...REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4+ INCHES) LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE JUST STILL ISN`T THERE FOR AN UPGRADE
TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME...SO WILL OPT TO KEEP THE WATCH AS IS.
HOPEFULLY THE 12Z DATA WILL CLEAR THINGS UP A BIT.

THURSDAY WILL BE COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM...WITH VERY
CHILLY LOWS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY MORNING. BUT A STRONG WARM UP IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 031746
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1146 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 18Z TAFS... IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH MOST OF THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY AFTER PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.
FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY AFFECT ALL SITES BEGINNING BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FSM AND MLC WHICH
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. NO
OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
THE AFOREMENTIONED IFR WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NE OK AND NW AR AS FZRAPL CHANCES INCREASE. A FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...GUSTY
SFC WINDS OF 20-25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NE
OK AND NW AR SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTH WINDS AND RESULTANT WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED WHICH HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY DENSE AT TIMES...BUT COVERAGE
ISN`T WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT SHOWERS.

BIG WEATHER CHANGES IN STORE FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FORECAST AREA COMES UNDER THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN 180+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR WARM ENOUGH
FOR MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...BUT EXPECT A TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SLEET AND SNOW FOR NE OK AND NW AR
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR LATER
FOR SE OK AND WCNTRL AR...WITH THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY ENDING AS SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST AR STILL LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST
SHOT AT SIGNIFICANT SNOW...WITH AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...AND
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SIGNIFICANT ICING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SE OK INTO WCNTRL
AR...WITH AMOUNTS BEING HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE
SUB-FREEZING LOW-LEVEL AIR ARRIVES.

HOW TO HANDLE THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES IS A RIDICULOUSLY TOUGH
CALL. MOST OF ERN OK WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BEING THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY LATE 2ND
PERIOD (TUE NIGHT) INTO THE 3RD PERIOD (WED). CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST HAS PARTS OF NW AR...MAINLY CARROLL AND MADISON
COUNTIES...REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4+ INCHES) LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE JUST STILL ISN`T THERE FOR AN UPGRADE
TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME...SO WILL OPT TO KEEP THE WATCH AS IS.
HOPEFULLY THE 12Z DATA WILL CLEAR THINGS UP A BIT.

THURSDAY WILL BE COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM...WITH VERY
CHILLY LOWS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY MORNING. BUT A STRONG WARM UP IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 031746
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1146 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 18Z TAFS... IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH MOST OF THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY AFTER PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.
FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY AFFECT ALL SITES BEGINNING BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FSM AND MLC WHICH
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. NO
OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
THE AFOREMENTIONED IFR WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NE OK AND NW AR AS FZRAPL CHANCES INCREASE. A FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...GUSTY
SFC WINDS OF 20-25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NE
OK AND NW AR SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTH WINDS AND RESULTANT WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED WHICH HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY DENSE AT TIMES...BUT COVERAGE
ISN`T WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT SHOWERS.

BIG WEATHER CHANGES IN STORE FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FORECAST AREA COMES UNDER THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN 180+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR WARM ENOUGH
FOR MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...BUT EXPECT A TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SLEET AND SNOW FOR NE OK AND NW AR
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR LATER
FOR SE OK AND WCNTRL AR...WITH THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY ENDING AS SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST AR STILL LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST
SHOT AT SIGNIFICANT SNOW...WITH AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...AND
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SIGNIFICANT ICING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SE OK INTO WCNTRL
AR...WITH AMOUNTS BEING HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE
SUB-FREEZING LOW-LEVEL AIR ARRIVES.

HOW TO HANDLE THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES IS A RIDICULOUSLY TOUGH
CALL. MOST OF ERN OK WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BEING THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY LATE 2ND
PERIOD (TUE NIGHT) INTO THE 3RD PERIOD (WED). CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST HAS PARTS OF NW AR...MAINLY CARROLL AND MADISON
COUNTIES...REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4+ INCHES) LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE JUST STILL ISN`T THERE FOR AN UPGRADE
TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME...SO WILL OPT TO KEEP THE WATCH AS IS.
HOPEFULLY THE 12Z DATA WILL CLEAR THINGS UP A BIT.

THURSDAY WILL BE COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM...WITH VERY
CHILLY LOWS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY MORNING. BUT A STRONG WARM UP IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 031746
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1146 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 18Z TAFS... IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH MOST OF THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY AFTER PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.
FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY AFFECT ALL SITES BEGINNING BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FSM AND MLC WHICH
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. NO
OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
THE AFOREMENTIONED IFR WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NE OK AND NW AR AS FZRAPL CHANCES INCREASE. A FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...GUSTY
SFC WINDS OF 20-25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NE
OK AND NW AR SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTH WINDS AND RESULTANT WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED WHICH HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY DENSE AT TIMES...BUT COVERAGE
ISN`T WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT SHOWERS.

BIG WEATHER CHANGES IN STORE FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FORECAST AREA COMES UNDER THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN 180+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR WARM ENOUGH
FOR MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...BUT EXPECT A TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SLEET AND SNOW FOR NE OK AND NW AR
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR LATER
FOR SE OK AND WCNTRL AR...WITH THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY ENDING AS SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST AR STILL LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST
SHOT AT SIGNIFICANT SNOW...WITH AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...AND
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SIGNIFICANT ICING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SE OK INTO WCNTRL
AR...WITH AMOUNTS BEING HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE
SUB-FREEZING LOW-LEVEL AIR ARRIVES.

HOW TO HANDLE THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES IS A RIDICULOUSLY TOUGH
CALL. MOST OF ERN OK WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BEING THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY LATE 2ND
PERIOD (TUE NIGHT) INTO THE 3RD PERIOD (WED). CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST HAS PARTS OF NW AR...MAINLY CARROLL AND MADISON
COUNTIES...REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4+ INCHES) LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE JUST STILL ISN`T THERE FOR AN UPGRADE
TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME...SO WILL OPT TO KEEP THE WATCH AS IS.
HOPEFULLY THE 12Z DATA WILL CLEAR THINGS UP A BIT.

THURSDAY WILL BE COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM...WITH VERY
CHILLY LOWS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY MORNING. BUT A STRONG WARM UP IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 031746
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1146 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 18Z TAFS... IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH MOST OF THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY AFTER PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.
FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY AFFECT ALL SITES BEGINNING BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FSM AND MLC WHICH
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. NO
OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
THE AFOREMENTIONED IFR WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NE OK AND NW AR AS FZRAPL CHANCES INCREASE. A FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...GUSTY
SFC WINDS OF 20-25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NE
OK AND NW AR SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTH WINDS AND RESULTANT WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED WHICH HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY DENSE AT TIMES...BUT COVERAGE
ISN`T WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT SHOWERS.

BIG WEATHER CHANGES IN STORE FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FORECAST AREA COMES UNDER THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN 180+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR WARM ENOUGH
FOR MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...BUT EXPECT A TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SLEET AND SNOW FOR NE OK AND NW AR
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR LATER
FOR SE OK AND WCNTRL AR...WITH THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY ENDING AS SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST AR STILL LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST
SHOT AT SIGNIFICANT SNOW...WITH AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...AND
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SIGNIFICANT ICING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SE OK INTO WCNTRL
AR...WITH AMOUNTS BEING HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE
SUB-FREEZING LOW-LEVEL AIR ARRIVES.

HOW TO HANDLE THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES IS A RIDICULOUSLY TOUGH
CALL. MOST OF ERN OK WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BEING THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY LATE 2ND
PERIOD (TUE NIGHT) INTO THE 3RD PERIOD (WED). CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST HAS PARTS OF NW AR...MAINLY CARROLL AND MADISON
COUNTIES...REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4+ INCHES) LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE JUST STILL ISN`T THERE FOR AN UPGRADE
TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME...SO WILL OPT TO KEEP THE WATCH AS IS.
HOPEFULLY THE 12Z DATA WILL CLEAR THINGS UP A BIT.

THURSDAY WILL BE COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM...WITH VERY
CHILLY LOWS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY MORNING. BUT A STRONG WARM UP IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 031746
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1146 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 18Z TAFS... IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH MOST OF THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY AFTER PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.
FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY AFFECT ALL SITES BEGINNING BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FSM AND MLC WHICH
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. NO
OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
THE AFOREMENTIONED IFR WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NE OK AND NW AR AS FZRAPL CHANCES INCREASE. A FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...GUSTY
SFC WINDS OF 20-25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NE
OK AND NW AR SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTH WINDS AND RESULTANT WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED WHICH HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY DENSE AT TIMES...BUT COVERAGE
ISN`T WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT SHOWERS.

BIG WEATHER CHANGES IN STORE FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FORECAST AREA COMES UNDER THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN 180+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR WARM ENOUGH
FOR MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...BUT EXPECT A TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SLEET AND SNOW FOR NE OK AND NW AR
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR LATER
FOR SE OK AND WCNTRL AR...WITH THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY ENDING AS SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST AR STILL LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST
SHOT AT SIGNIFICANT SNOW...WITH AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...AND
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SIGNIFICANT ICING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SE OK INTO WCNTRL
AR...WITH AMOUNTS BEING HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE
SUB-FREEZING LOW-LEVEL AIR ARRIVES.

HOW TO HANDLE THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES IS A RIDICULOUSLY TOUGH
CALL. MOST OF ERN OK WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BEING THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY LATE 2ND
PERIOD (TUE NIGHT) INTO THE 3RD PERIOD (WED). CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST HAS PARTS OF NW AR...MAINLY CARROLL AND MADISON
COUNTIES...REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4+ INCHES) LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE JUST STILL ISN`T THERE FOR AN UPGRADE
TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME...SO WILL OPT TO KEEP THE WATCH AS IS.
HOPEFULLY THE 12Z DATA WILL CLEAR THINGS UP A BIT.

THURSDAY WILL BE COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM...WITH VERY
CHILLY LOWS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY MORNING. BUT A STRONG WARM UP IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 031746
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1146 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 18Z TAFS... IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH MOST OF THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY AFTER PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.
FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY AFFECT ALL SITES BEGINNING BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FSM AND MLC WHICH
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. NO
OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
THE AFOREMENTIONED IFR WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NE OK AND NW AR AS FZRAPL CHANCES INCREASE. A FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...GUSTY
SFC WINDS OF 20-25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NE
OK AND NW AR SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTH WINDS AND RESULTANT WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED WHICH HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY DENSE AT TIMES...BUT COVERAGE
ISN`T WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT SHOWERS.

BIG WEATHER CHANGES IN STORE FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FORECAST AREA COMES UNDER THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN 180+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR WARM ENOUGH
FOR MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...BUT EXPECT A TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SLEET AND SNOW FOR NE OK AND NW AR
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR LATER
FOR SE OK AND WCNTRL AR...WITH THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY ENDING AS SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST AR STILL LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST
SHOT AT SIGNIFICANT SNOW...WITH AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...AND
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SIGNIFICANT ICING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SE OK INTO WCNTRL
AR...WITH AMOUNTS BEING HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE
SUB-FREEZING LOW-LEVEL AIR ARRIVES.

HOW TO HANDLE THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES IS A RIDICULOUSLY TOUGH
CALL. MOST OF ERN OK WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BEING THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY LATE 2ND
PERIOD (TUE NIGHT) INTO THE 3RD PERIOD (WED). CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST HAS PARTS OF NW AR...MAINLY CARROLL AND MADISON
COUNTIES...REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4+ INCHES) LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE JUST STILL ISN`T THERE FOR AN UPGRADE
TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME...SO WILL OPT TO KEEP THE WATCH AS IS.
HOPEFULLY THE 12Z DATA WILL CLEAR THINGS UP A BIT.

THURSDAY WILL BE COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM...WITH VERY
CHILLY LOWS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY MORNING. BUT A STRONG WARM UP IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KOUN 031741
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1141 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY OVER OK/N TX SE
OF I-44 THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. AS ANOTHER WINTER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...CEILINGS WILL LOWER ONCE AGAIN...AND VARIOUS
TYPES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN. THE FREEZING LINE IS EXPECTED
TO EDGE SLOWLY SE LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...GENERALLY CHANGING
RAIN...BRIEFLY TO FREEZING RAIN...TO SLEET...AND EVENTUALLY TO
SNOW IN THE N. THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW...THE FAR S...INCLUDING
KSPS...WILL PROBABLY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... CEILINGS RAISE AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE SOME
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON BUT WILL DECREASE AGAIN THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHIFTING WINDS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A WINTER MIX AND SNOW
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DRIZZLE... FOG... AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE
FA THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER THIS
MORNING BUT RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING IN PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL OK...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW PARTS OF THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF COLD AIR AND WINTER PRECIPITATION. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS
THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY
CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE FA WHERE
WOULD LIKELY RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST FREEZING RAIN. IF SFC TEMPS DROP
BELOW FREEZING SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST HIGHER ICE
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER... HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR
WHERE A POSSIBLE BAND DEVELOPS DUE TO FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
ALTHOUGH DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO END WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE
AREA. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AND LET THE DAY SHIFT
TAKE A LOOK AT THE LATEST MODEL DATA SINCE WOULD NOT LIKELY NEED ONE
UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT AND AFTER. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT WARNING
CRITERIA SO WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH.

AFTER WEDNESDAY THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY DESPITE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND AT LEAST ONE WEAK FRONT AFFECTING PARTS OF THE
REGION. MODELS SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO PART OF THE FA
SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
HOWEVER... THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH EFFECT IN THE FA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WARM LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY WARM
TO AROUND OR ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  26  27  18 /  20  60  70  20
HOBART OK         59  25  27  17 /  20  60  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  32  32  21 /  20  70  70  30
GAGE OK           53  18  25  11 /  10  50  70  10
PONCA CITY OK     54  20  26  14 /  20  30  70  10
DURANT OK         59  34  35  24 /  40  80  90  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR OKZ019-020-022>048-050>052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ004>018-021.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

10/84/23



000
FXUS64 KOUN 031741
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1141 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY OVER OK/N TX SE
OF I-44 THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. AS ANOTHER WINTER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...CEILINGS WILL LOWER ONCE AGAIN...AND VARIOUS
TYPES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN. THE FREEZING LINE IS EXPECTED
TO EDGE SLOWLY SE LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...GENERALLY CHANGING
RAIN...BRIEFLY TO FREEZING RAIN...TO SLEET...AND EVENTUALLY TO
SNOW IN THE N. THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW...THE FAR S...INCLUDING
KSPS...WILL PROBABLY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... CEILINGS RAISE AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE SOME
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON BUT WILL DECREASE AGAIN THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHIFTING WINDS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A WINTER MIX AND SNOW
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DRIZZLE... FOG... AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE
FA THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER THIS
MORNING BUT RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING IN PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL OK...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW PARTS OF THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF COLD AIR AND WINTER PRECIPITATION. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS
THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY
CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE FA WHERE
WOULD LIKELY RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST FREEZING RAIN. IF SFC TEMPS DROP
BELOW FREEZING SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST HIGHER ICE
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER... HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR
WHERE A POSSIBLE BAND DEVELOPS DUE TO FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
ALTHOUGH DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO END WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE
AREA. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AND LET THE DAY SHIFT
TAKE A LOOK AT THE LATEST MODEL DATA SINCE WOULD NOT LIKELY NEED ONE
UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT AND AFTER. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT WARNING
CRITERIA SO WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH.

AFTER WEDNESDAY THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY DESPITE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND AT LEAST ONE WEAK FRONT AFFECTING PARTS OF THE
REGION. MODELS SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO PART OF THE FA
SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
HOWEVER... THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH EFFECT IN THE FA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WARM LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY WARM
TO AROUND OR ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  26  27  18 /  20  60  70  20
HOBART OK         59  25  27  17 /  20  60  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  32  32  21 /  20  70  70  30
GAGE OK           53  18  25  11 /  10  50  70  10
PONCA CITY OK     54  20  26  14 /  20  30  70  10
DURANT OK         59  34  35  24 /  40  80  90  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR OKZ019-020-022>048-050>052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ004>018-021.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

10/84/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 031741
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1141 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY OVER OK/N TX SE
OF I-44 THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. AS ANOTHER WINTER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...CEILINGS WILL LOWER ONCE AGAIN...AND VARIOUS
TYPES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN. THE FREEZING LINE IS EXPECTED
TO EDGE SLOWLY SE LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...GENERALLY CHANGING
RAIN...BRIEFLY TO FREEZING RAIN...TO SLEET...AND EVENTUALLY TO
SNOW IN THE N. THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW...THE FAR S...INCLUDING
KSPS...WILL PROBABLY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... CEILINGS RAISE AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE SOME
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON BUT WILL DECREASE AGAIN THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHIFTING WINDS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A WINTER MIX AND SNOW
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DRIZZLE... FOG... AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE
FA THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER THIS
MORNING BUT RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING IN PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL OK...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW PARTS OF THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF COLD AIR AND WINTER PRECIPITATION. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS
THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY
CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE FA WHERE
WOULD LIKELY RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST FREEZING RAIN. IF SFC TEMPS DROP
BELOW FREEZING SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST HIGHER ICE
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER... HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR
WHERE A POSSIBLE BAND DEVELOPS DUE TO FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
ALTHOUGH DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO END WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE
AREA. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AND LET THE DAY SHIFT
TAKE A LOOK AT THE LATEST MODEL DATA SINCE WOULD NOT LIKELY NEED ONE
UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT AND AFTER. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT WARNING
CRITERIA SO WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH.

AFTER WEDNESDAY THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY DESPITE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND AT LEAST ONE WEAK FRONT AFFECTING PARTS OF THE
REGION. MODELS SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO PART OF THE FA
SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
HOWEVER... THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH EFFECT IN THE FA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WARM LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY WARM
TO AROUND OR ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  26  27  18 /  20  60  70  20
HOBART OK         59  25  27  17 /  20  60  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  32  32  21 /  20  70  70  30
GAGE OK           53  18  25  11 /  10  50  70  10
PONCA CITY OK     54  20  26  14 /  20  30  70  10
DURANT OK         59  34  35  24 /  40  80  90  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR OKZ019-020-022>048-050>052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ004>018-021.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

10/84/23



000
FXUS64 KOUN 031741
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1141 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY OVER OK/N TX SE
OF I-44 THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. AS ANOTHER WINTER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...CEILINGS WILL LOWER ONCE AGAIN...AND VARIOUS
TYPES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN. THE FREEZING LINE IS EXPECTED
TO EDGE SLOWLY SE LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...GENERALLY CHANGING
RAIN...BRIEFLY TO FREEZING RAIN...TO SLEET...AND EVENTUALLY TO
SNOW IN THE N. THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW...THE FAR S...INCLUDING
KSPS...WILL PROBABLY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... CEILINGS RAISE AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE SOME
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON BUT WILL DECREASE AGAIN THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHIFTING WINDS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A WINTER MIX AND SNOW
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DRIZZLE... FOG... AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE
FA THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER THIS
MORNING BUT RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING IN PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL OK...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW PARTS OF THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF COLD AIR AND WINTER PRECIPITATION. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS
THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY
CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE FA WHERE
WOULD LIKELY RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST FREEZING RAIN. IF SFC TEMPS DROP
BELOW FREEZING SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST HIGHER ICE
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER... HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR
WHERE A POSSIBLE BAND DEVELOPS DUE TO FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
ALTHOUGH DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO END WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE
AREA. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AND LET THE DAY SHIFT
TAKE A LOOK AT THE LATEST MODEL DATA SINCE WOULD NOT LIKELY NEED ONE
UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT AND AFTER. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT WARNING
CRITERIA SO WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH.

AFTER WEDNESDAY THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY DESPITE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND AT LEAST ONE WEAK FRONT AFFECTING PARTS OF THE
REGION. MODELS SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO PART OF THE FA
SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
HOWEVER... THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH EFFECT IN THE FA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WARM LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY WARM
TO AROUND OR ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  26  27  18 /  20  60  70  20
HOBART OK         59  25  27  17 /  20  60  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  32  32  21 /  20  70  70  30
GAGE OK           53  18  25  11 /  10  50  70  10
PONCA CITY OK     54  20  26  14 /  20  30  70  10
DURANT OK         59  34  35  24 /  40  80  90  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR OKZ019-020-022>048-050>052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ004>018-021.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

10/84/23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 031655
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1055 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. NO
OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
THE AFOREMENTIONED IFR WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NE OK AND NW AR AS FZRAPL CHANCES INCREASE. A FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...GUSTY
SFC WINDS OF 20-25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NE
OK AND NW AR SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTH WINDS AND RESULTANT WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED WHICH HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY DENSE AT TIMES...BUT COVERAGE
ISN`T WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT SHOWERS.

BIG WEATHER CHANGES IN STORE FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FORECAST AREA COMES UNDER THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN 180+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR WARM ENOUGH
FOR MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...BUT EXPECT A TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SLEET AND SNOW FOR NE OK AND NW AR
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR LATER
FOR SE OK AND WCNTRL AR...WITH THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY ENDING AS SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST AR STILL LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST
SHOT AT SIGNIFICANT SNOW...WITH AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...AND
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SIGNIFICANT ICING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SE OK INTO WCNTRL
AR...WITH AMOUNTS BEING HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE
SUB-FREEZING LOW-LEVEL AIR ARRIVES.

HOW TO HANDLE THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES IS A RIDICULOUSLY TOUGH
CALL. MOST OF ERN OK WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BEING THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY LATE 2ND
PERIOD (TUE NIGHT) INTO THE 3RD PERIOD (WED). CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST HAS PARTS OF NW AR...MAINLY CARROLL AND MADISON
COUNTIES...REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4+ INCHES) LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE JUST STILL ISN`T THERE FOR AN UPGRADE
TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME...SO WILL OPT TO KEEP THE WATCH AS IS.
HOPEFULLY THE 12Z DATA WILL CLEAR THINGS UP A BIT.

THURSDAY WILL BE COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM...WITH VERY
CHILLY LOWS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY MORNING. BUT A STRONG WARM UP IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99





000
FXUS64 KTSA 031655
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1055 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. NO
OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
THE AFOREMENTIONED IFR WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NE OK AND NW AR AS FZRAPL CHANCES INCREASE. A FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...GUSTY
SFC WINDS OF 20-25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NE
OK AND NW AR SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTH WINDS AND RESULTANT WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED WHICH HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY DENSE AT TIMES...BUT COVERAGE
ISN`T WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT SHOWERS.

BIG WEATHER CHANGES IN STORE FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FORECAST AREA COMES UNDER THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN 180+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR WARM ENOUGH
FOR MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...BUT EXPECT A TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SLEET AND SNOW FOR NE OK AND NW AR
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR LATER
FOR SE OK AND WCNTRL AR...WITH THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY ENDING AS SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST AR STILL LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST
SHOT AT SIGNIFICANT SNOW...WITH AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...AND
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SIGNIFICANT ICING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SE OK INTO WCNTRL
AR...WITH AMOUNTS BEING HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE
SUB-FREEZING LOW-LEVEL AIR ARRIVES.

HOW TO HANDLE THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES IS A RIDICULOUSLY TOUGH
CALL. MOST OF ERN OK WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BEING THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY LATE 2ND
PERIOD (TUE NIGHT) INTO THE 3RD PERIOD (WED). CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST HAS PARTS OF NW AR...MAINLY CARROLL AND MADISON
COUNTIES...REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4+ INCHES) LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE JUST STILL ISN`T THERE FOR AN UPGRADE
TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME...SO WILL OPT TO KEEP THE WATCH AS IS.
HOPEFULLY THE 12Z DATA WILL CLEAR THINGS UP A BIT.

THURSDAY WILL BE COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM...WITH VERY
CHILLY LOWS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY MORNING. BUT A STRONG WARM UP IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99





000
FXUS64 KTSA 031655
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1055 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. NO
OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
THE AFOREMENTIONED IFR WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NE OK AND NW AR AS FZRAPL CHANCES INCREASE. A FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...GUSTY
SFC WINDS OF 20-25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NE
OK AND NW AR SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTH WINDS AND RESULTANT WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED WHICH HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY DENSE AT TIMES...BUT COVERAGE
ISN`T WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT SHOWERS.

BIG WEATHER CHANGES IN STORE FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FORECAST AREA COMES UNDER THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN 180+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR WARM ENOUGH
FOR MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...BUT EXPECT A TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SLEET AND SNOW FOR NE OK AND NW AR
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR LATER
FOR SE OK AND WCNTRL AR...WITH THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY ENDING AS SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST AR STILL LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST
SHOT AT SIGNIFICANT SNOW...WITH AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...AND
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SIGNIFICANT ICING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SE OK INTO WCNTRL
AR...WITH AMOUNTS BEING HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE
SUB-FREEZING LOW-LEVEL AIR ARRIVES.

HOW TO HANDLE THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES IS A RIDICULOUSLY TOUGH
CALL. MOST OF ERN OK WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BEING THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY LATE 2ND
PERIOD (TUE NIGHT) INTO THE 3RD PERIOD (WED). CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST HAS PARTS OF NW AR...MAINLY CARROLL AND MADISON
COUNTIES...REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4+ INCHES) LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE JUST STILL ISN`T THERE FOR AN UPGRADE
TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME...SO WILL OPT TO KEEP THE WATCH AS IS.
HOPEFULLY THE 12Z DATA WILL CLEAR THINGS UP A BIT.

THURSDAY WILL BE COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM...WITH VERY
CHILLY LOWS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY MORNING. BUT A STRONG WARM UP IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99





000
FXUS64 KTSA 031655
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1055 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. NO
OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
THE AFOREMENTIONED IFR WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NE OK AND NW AR AS FZRAPL CHANCES INCREASE. A FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...GUSTY
SFC WINDS OF 20-25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NE
OK AND NW AR SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTH WINDS AND RESULTANT WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED WHICH HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY DENSE AT TIMES...BUT COVERAGE
ISN`T WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT SHOWERS.

BIG WEATHER CHANGES IN STORE FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FORECAST AREA COMES UNDER THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN 180+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR WARM ENOUGH
FOR MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...BUT EXPECT A TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SLEET AND SNOW FOR NE OK AND NW AR
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR LATER
FOR SE OK AND WCNTRL AR...WITH THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY ENDING AS SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST AR STILL LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST
SHOT AT SIGNIFICANT SNOW...WITH AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...AND
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SIGNIFICANT ICING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SE OK INTO WCNTRL
AR...WITH AMOUNTS BEING HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE
SUB-FREEZING LOW-LEVEL AIR ARRIVES.

HOW TO HANDLE THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES IS A RIDICULOUSLY TOUGH
CALL. MOST OF ERN OK WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BEING THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY LATE 2ND
PERIOD (TUE NIGHT) INTO THE 3RD PERIOD (WED). CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST HAS PARTS OF NW AR...MAINLY CARROLL AND MADISON
COUNTIES...REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4+ INCHES) LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE JUST STILL ISN`T THERE FOR AN UPGRADE
TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME...SO WILL OPT TO KEEP THE WATCH AS IS.
HOPEFULLY THE 12Z DATA WILL CLEAR THINGS UP A BIT.

THURSDAY WILL BE COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM...WITH VERY
CHILLY LOWS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY MORNING. BUT A STRONG WARM UP IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99





000
FXUS64 KTSA 031655
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1055 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. NO
OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
THE AFOREMENTIONED IFR WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NE OK AND NW AR AS FZRAPL CHANCES INCREASE. A FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...GUSTY
SFC WINDS OF 20-25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NE
OK AND NW AR SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTH WINDS AND RESULTANT WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED WHICH HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY DENSE AT TIMES...BUT COVERAGE
ISN`T WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT SHOWERS.

BIG WEATHER CHANGES IN STORE FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FORECAST AREA COMES UNDER THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN 180+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR WARM ENOUGH
FOR MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...BUT EXPECT A TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SLEET AND SNOW FOR NE OK AND NW AR
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR LATER
FOR SE OK AND WCNTRL AR...WITH THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY ENDING AS SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST AR STILL LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST
SHOT AT SIGNIFICANT SNOW...WITH AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...AND
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SIGNIFICANT ICING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SE OK INTO WCNTRL
AR...WITH AMOUNTS BEING HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE
SUB-FREEZING LOW-LEVEL AIR ARRIVES.

HOW TO HANDLE THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES IS A RIDICULOUSLY TOUGH
CALL. MOST OF ERN OK WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BEING THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY LATE 2ND
PERIOD (TUE NIGHT) INTO THE 3RD PERIOD (WED). CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST HAS PARTS OF NW AR...MAINLY CARROLL AND MADISON
COUNTIES...REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4+ INCHES) LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE JUST STILL ISN`T THERE FOR AN UPGRADE
TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME...SO WILL OPT TO KEEP THE WATCH AS IS.
HOPEFULLY THE 12Z DATA WILL CLEAR THINGS UP A BIT.

THURSDAY WILL BE COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM...WITH VERY
CHILLY LOWS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY MORNING. BUT A STRONG WARM UP IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99





000
FXUS64 KTSA 031655
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1055 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. NO
OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
THE AFOREMENTIONED IFR WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NE OK AND NW AR AS FZRAPL CHANCES INCREASE. A FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...GUSTY
SFC WINDS OF 20-25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NE
OK AND NW AR SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTH WINDS AND RESULTANT WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED WHICH HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY DENSE AT TIMES...BUT COVERAGE
ISN`T WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT SHOWERS.

BIG WEATHER CHANGES IN STORE FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FORECAST AREA COMES UNDER THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN 180+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR WARM ENOUGH
FOR MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...BUT EXPECT A TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SLEET AND SNOW FOR NE OK AND NW AR
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR LATER
FOR SE OK AND WCNTRL AR...WITH THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY ENDING AS SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST AR STILL LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST
SHOT AT SIGNIFICANT SNOW...WITH AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...AND
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SIGNIFICANT ICING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SE OK INTO WCNTRL
AR...WITH AMOUNTS BEING HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE
SUB-FREEZING LOW-LEVEL AIR ARRIVES.

HOW TO HANDLE THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES IS A RIDICULOUSLY TOUGH
CALL. MOST OF ERN OK WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BEING THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY LATE 2ND
PERIOD (TUE NIGHT) INTO THE 3RD PERIOD (WED). CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST HAS PARTS OF NW AR...MAINLY CARROLL AND MADISON
COUNTIES...REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4+ INCHES) LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE JUST STILL ISN`T THERE FOR AN UPGRADE
TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME...SO WILL OPT TO KEEP THE WATCH AS IS.
HOPEFULLY THE 12Z DATA WILL CLEAR THINGS UP A BIT.

THURSDAY WILL BE COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM...WITH VERY
CHILLY LOWS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY MORNING. BUT A STRONG WARM UP IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99






000
FXUS64 KOUN 031132
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
532 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... CEILINGS RAISE AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE SOME
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON BUT WILL DECREASE AGAIN THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHIFTING WINDS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A WINTER MIX AND SNOW
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DRIZZLE... FOG... AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE
FA THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER THIS
MORNING BUT RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING IN PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL OK...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW PARTS OF THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF COLD AIR AND WINTER PRECIPITATION. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS
THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY
CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE FA WHERE
WOULD LIKELY RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST FREEZING RAIN. IF SFC TEMPS DROP
BELOW FREEZING SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST HIGHER ICE
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER... HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR
WHERE A POSSIBLE BAND DEVELOPS DUE TO FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
ALTHOUGH DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO END WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE
AREA. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AND LET THE DAY SHIFT
TAKE A LOOK AT THE LATEST MODEL DATA SINCE WOULD NOT LIKELY NEED ONE
UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT AND AFTER. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT WARNING
CRITERIA SO WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH.

AFTER WEDNESDAY THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY DESPITE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND AT LEAST ONE WEAK FRONT AFFECTING PARTS OF THE
REGION. MODELS SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO PART OF THE FA
SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
HOWEVER... THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH EFFECT IN THE FA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WARM LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY WARM
TO AROUND OR ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  26  27  18 /  20  60  70  20
HOBART OK         59  25  27  17 /  20  60  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  32  32  21 /  20  70  70  30
GAGE OK           53  18  25  11 /  10  50  70  10
PONCA CITY OK     54  20  26  14 /  20  30  70  10
DURANT OK         59  34  35  24 /  40  80  90  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/25/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 031132
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
532 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... CEILINGS RAISE AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE SOME
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON BUT WILL DECREASE AGAIN THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHIFTING WINDS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A WINTER MIX AND SNOW
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DRIZZLE... FOG... AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE
FA THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER THIS
MORNING BUT RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING IN PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL OK...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW PARTS OF THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF COLD AIR AND WINTER PRECIPITATION. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS
THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY
CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE FA WHERE
WOULD LIKELY RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST FREEZING RAIN. IF SFC TEMPS DROP
BELOW FREEZING SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST HIGHER ICE
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER... HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR
WHERE A POSSIBLE BAND DEVELOPS DUE TO FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
ALTHOUGH DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO END WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE
AREA. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AND LET THE DAY SHIFT
TAKE A LOOK AT THE LATEST MODEL DATA SINCE WOULD NOT LIKELY NEED ONE
UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT AND AFTER. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT WARNING
CRITERIA SO WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH.

AFTER WEDNESDAY THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY DESPITE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND AT LEAST ONE WEAK FRONT AFFECTING PARTS OF THE
REGION. MODELS SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO PART OF THE FA
SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
HOWEVER... THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH EFFECT IN THE FA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WARM LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY WARM
TO AROUND OR ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  26  27  18 /  20  60  70  20
HOBART OK         59  25  27  17 /  20  60  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  32  32  21 /  20  70  70  30
GAGE OK           53  18  25  11 /  10  50  70  10
PONCA CITY OK     54  20  26  14 /  20  30  70  10
DURANT OK         59  34  35  24 /  40  80  90  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/25/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 031132
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
532 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... CEILINGS RAISE AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE SOME
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON BUT WILL DECREASE AGAIN THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHIFTING WINDS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A WINTER MIX AND SNOW
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DRIZZLE... FOG... AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE
FA THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER THIS
MORNING BUT RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING IN PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL OK...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW PARTS OF THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF COLD AIR AND WINTER PRECIPITATION. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS
THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY
CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE FA WHERE
WOULD LIKELY RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST FREEZING RAIN. IF SFC TEMPS DROP
BELOW FREEZING SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST HIGHER ICE
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER... HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR
WHERE A POSSIBLE BAND DEVELOPS DUE TO FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
ALTHOUGH DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO END WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE
AREA. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AND LET THE DAY SHIFT
TAKE A LOOK AT THE LATEST MODEL DATA SINCE WOULD NOT LIKELY NEED ONE
UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT AND AFTER. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT WARNING
CRITERIA SO WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH.

AFTER WEDNESDAY THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY DESPITE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND AT LEAST ONE WEAK FRONT AFFECTING PARTS OF THE
REGION. MODELS SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO PART OF THE FA
SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
HOWEVER... THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH EFFECT IN THE FA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WARM LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY WARM
TO AROUND OR ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  26  27  18 /  20  60  70  20
HOBART OK         59  25  27  17 /  20  60  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  32  32  21 /  20  70  70  30
GAGE OK           53  18  25  11 /  10  50  70  10
PONCA CITY OK     54  20  26  14 /  20  30  70  10
DURANT OK         59  34  35  24 /  40  80  90  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/25/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 031132
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
532 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... CEILINGS RAISE AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE SOME
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON BUT WILL DECREASE AGAIN THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHIFTING WINDS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A WINTER MIX AND SNOW
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DRIZZLE... FOG... AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE
FA THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER THIS
MORNING BUT RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING IN PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL OK...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW PARTS OF THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF COLD AIR AND WINTER PRECIPITATION. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS
THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY
CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE FA WHERE
WOULD LIKELY RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST FREEZING RAIN. IF SFC TEMPS DROP
BELOW FREEZING SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST HIGHER ICE
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER... HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR
WHERE A POSSIBLE BAND DEVELOPS DUE TO FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
ALTHOUGH DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO END WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE
AREA. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AND LET THE DAY SHIFT
TAKE A LOOK AT THE LATEST MODEL DATA SINCE WOULD NOT LIKELY NEED ONE
UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT AND AFTER. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT WARNING
CRITERIA SO WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH.

AFTER WEDNESDAY THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY DESPITE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND AT LEAST ONE WEAK FRONT AFFECTING PARTS OF THE
REGION. MODELS SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO PART OF THE FA
SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
HOWEVER... THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH EFFECT IN THE FA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WARM LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY WARM
TO AROUND OR ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  26  27  18 /  20  60  70  20
HOBART OK         59  25  27  17 /  20  60  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  32  32  21 /  20  70  70  30
GAGE OK           53  18  25  11 /  10  50  70  10
PONCA CITY OK     54  20  26  14 /  20  30  70  10
DURANT OK         59  34  35  24 /  40  80  90  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/25/25




000
FXUS64 KTSA 031118
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
518 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
THE AFOREMENTIONED IFR WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NE OK AND NW AR AS FZRAPL CHANCES INCREASE. A FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...GUSTY
SFC WINDS OF 20-25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NE
OK AND NW AR SITES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTH WINDS AND RESULTANT WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED WHICH HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY DENSE AT TIMES...BUT COVERAGE
ISN`T WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT SHOWERS.

BIG WEATHER CHANGES IN STORE FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FORECAST AREA COMES UNDER THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN 180+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR WARM ENOUGH
FOR MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...BUT EXPECT A TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SLEET AND SNOW FOR NE OK AND NW AR
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR LATER
FOR SE OK AND WCNTRL AR...WITH THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY ENDING AS SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST AR STILL LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST
SHOT AT SIGNIFICANT SNOW...WITH AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...AND
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SIGNIFICANT ICING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SE OK INTO WCNTRL
AR...WITH AMOUNTS BEING HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE
SUB-FREEZING LOW-LEVEL AIR ARRIVES.

HOW TO HANDLE THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES IS A RIDICULOUSLY TOUGH
CALL. MOST OF ERN OK WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BEING THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY LATE 2ND
PERIOD (TUE NIGHT) INTO THE 3RD PERIOD (WED). CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST HAS PARTS OF NW AR...MAINLY CARROLL AND MADISON
COUNTIES...REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4+ INCHES) LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE JUST STILL ISN`T THERE FOR AN UPGRADE
TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME...SO WILL OPT TO KEEP THE WATCH AS IS.
HOPEFULLY THE 12Z DATA WILL CLEAR THINGS UP A BIT.

THURSDAY WILL BE COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM...WITH VERY
CHILLY LOWS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY MORNING. BUT A STRONG WARM UP IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$


AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KTSA 031118
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
518 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
THE AFOREMENTIONED IFR WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NE OK AND NW AR AS FZRAPL CHANCES INCREASE. A FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...GUSTY
SFC WINDS OF 20-25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NE
OK AND NW AR SITES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTH WINDS AND RESULTANT WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED WHICH HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY DENSE AT TIMES...BUT COVERAGE
ISN`T WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT SHOWERS.

BIG WEATHER CHANGES IN STORE FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FORECAST AREA COMES UNDER THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN 180+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR WARM ENOUGH
FOR MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...BUT EXPECT A TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SLEET AND SNOW FOR NE OK AND NW AR
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR LATER
FOR SE OK AND WCNTRL AR...WITH THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY ENDING AS SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST AR STILL LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST
SHOT AT SIGNIFICANT SNOW...WITH AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...AND
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SIGNIFICANT ICING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SE OK INTO WCNTRL
AR...WITH AMOUNTS BEING HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE
SUB-FREEZING LOW-LEVEL AIR ARRIVES.

HOW TO HANDLE THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES IS A RIDICULOUSLY TOUGH
CALL. MOST OF ERN OK WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BEING THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY LATE 2ND
PERIOD (TUE NIGHT) INTO THE 3RD PERIOD (WED). CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST HAS PARTS OF NW AR...MAINLY CARROLL AND MADISON
COUNTIES...REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4+ INCHES) LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE JUST STILL ISN`T THERE FOR AN UPGRADE
TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME...SO WILL OPT TO KEEP THE WATCH AS IS.
HOPEFULLY THE 12Z DATA WILL CLEAR THINGS UP A BIT.

THURSDAY WILL BE COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM...WITH VERY
CHILLY LOWS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY MORNING. BUT A STRONG WARM UP IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$


AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KTSA 031118
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
518 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
THE AFOREMENTIONED IFR WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NE OK AND NW AR AS FZRAPL CHANCES INCREASE. A FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...GUSTY
SFC WINDS OF 20-25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NE
OK AND NW AR SITES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTH WINDS AND RESULTANT WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED WHICH HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY DENSE AT TIMES...BUT COVERAGE
ISN`T WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT SHOWERS.

BIG WEATHER CHANGES IN STORE FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FORECAST AREA COMES UNDER THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN 180+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR WARM ENOUGH
FOR MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...BUT EXPECT A TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SLEET AND SNOW FOR NE OK AND NW AR
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR LATER
FOR SE OK AND WCNTRL AR...WITH THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY ENDING AS SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST AR STILL LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST
SHOT AT SIGNIFICANT SNOW...WITH AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...AND
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SIGNIFICANT ICING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SE OK INTO WCNTRL
AR...WITH AMOUNTS BEING HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE
SUB-FREEZING LOW-LEVEL AIR ARRIVES.

HOW TO HANDLE THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES IS A RIDICULOUSLY TOUGH
CALL. MOST OF ERN OK WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BEING THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY LATE 2ND
PERIOD (TUE NIGHT) INTO THE 3RD PERIOD (WED). CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST HAS PARTS OF NW AR...MAINLY CARROLL AND MADISON
COUNTIES...REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4+ INCHES) LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE JUST STILL ISN`T THERE FOR AN UPGRADE
TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME...SO WILL OPT TO KEEP THE WATCH AS IS.
HOPEFULLY THE 12Z DATA WILL CLEAR THINGS UP A BIT.

THURSDAY WILL BE COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM...WITH VERY
CHILLY LOWS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY MORNING. BUT A STRONG WARM UP IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$


AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KTSA 031118
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
518 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
THE AFOREMENTIONED IFR WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NE OK AND NW AR AS FZRAPL CHANCES INCREASE. A FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...GUSTY
SFC WINDS OF 20-25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NE
OK AND NW AR SITES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTH WINDS AND RESULTANT WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED WHICH HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY DENSE AT TIMES...BUT COVERAGE
ISN`T WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT SHOWERS.

BIG WEATHER CHANGES IN STORE FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FORECAST AREA COMES UNDER THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN 180+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR WARM ENOUGH
FOR MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...BUT EXPECT A TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SLEET AND SNOW FOR NE OK AND NW AR
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR LATER
FOR SE OK AND WCNTRL AR...WITH THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY ENDING AS SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST AR STILL LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST
SHOT AT SIGNIFICANT SNOW...WITH AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...AND
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SIGNIFICANT ICING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SE OK INTO WCNTRL
AR...WITH AMOUNTS BEING HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE
SUB-FREEZING LOW-LEVEL AIR ARRIVES.

HOW TO HANDLE THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES IS A RIDICULOUSLY TOUGH
CALL. MOST OF ERN OK WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BEING THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY LATE 2ND
PERIOD (TUE NIGHT) INTO THE 3RD PERIOD (WED). CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST HAS PARTS OF NW AR...MAINLY CARROLL AND MADISON
COUNTIES...REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4+ INCHES) LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE JUST STILL ISN`T THERE FOR AN UPGRADE
TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME...SO WILL OPT TO KEEP THE WATCH AS IS.
HOPEFULLY THE 12Z DATA WILL CLEAR THINGS UP A BIT.

THURSDAY WILL BE COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM...WITH VERY
CHILLY LOWS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY MORNING. BUT A STRONG WARM UP IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$


AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KTSA 031008
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
408 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTH WINDS AND RESULTANT WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED WHICH HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY DENSE AT TIMES...BUT COVERAGE
ISN`T WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT SHOWERS.

BIG WEATHER CHANGES IN STORE FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FORECAST AREA COMES UNDER THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN 180+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR WARM ENOUGH
FOR MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...BUT EXPECT A TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SLEET AND SNOW FOR NE OK AND NW AR
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR LATER
FOR SE OK AND WCNTRL AR...WITH THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY ENDING AS SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST AR STILL LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST
SHOT AT SIGNIFICANT SNOW...WITH AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...AND
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SIGNIFICANT ICING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SE OK INTO WCNTRL
AR...WITH AMOUNTS BEING HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE
SUB-FREEZING LOW-LEVEL AIR ARRIVES.

HOW TO HANDLE THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES IS A RIDICULOUSLY TOUGH
CALL. MOST OF ERN OK WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BEING THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY LATE 2ND
PERIOD (TUE NIGHT) INTO THE 3RD PERIOD (WED). CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST HAS PARTS OF NW AR...MAINLY CARROLL AND MADISON
COUNTIES...REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4+ INCHES) LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE JUST STILL ISN`T THERE FOR AN UPGRADE
TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME...SO WILL OPT TO KEEP THE WATCH AS IS.
HOPEFULLY THE 12Z DATA WILL CLEAR THINGS UP A BIT.

THURSDAY WILL BE COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM...WITH VERY
CHILLY LOWS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY MORNING. BUT A STRONG WARM UP IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  25  26  16 /  20  60  70  20
FSM   56  35  37  19 /  50  80  90  30
MLC   58  33  33  18 /  50  80  90  20
BVO   54  24  26  13 /  20  50  70  10
FYV   52  30  30  14 /  50  80  80  30
BYV   53  28  28  13 /  50  80  80  30
MKO   55  29  29  17 /  30  80  80  20
MIO   52  22  24  12 /  30  60  70  20
F10   56  28  28  18 /  30  70  70  20
HHW   61  40  40  21 /  50  80  90  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 031008
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
408 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTH WINDS AND RESULTANT WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED WHICH HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY DENSE AT TIMES...BUT COVERAGE
ISN`T WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT SHOWERS.

BIG WEATHER CHANGES IN STORE FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FORECAST AREA COMES UNDER THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN 180+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR WARM ENOUGH
FOR MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...BUT EXPECT A TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SLEET AND SNOW FOR NE OK AND NW AR
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR LATER
FOR SE OK AND WCNTRL AR...WITH THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY ENDING AS SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST AR STILL LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST
SHOT AT SIGNIFICANT SNOW...WITH AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...AND
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SIGNIFICANT ICING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SE OK INTO WCNTRL
AR...WITH AMOUNTS BEING HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE
SUB-FREEZING LOW-LEVEL AIR ARRIVES.

HOW TO HANDLE THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES IS A RIDICULOUSLY TOUGH
CALL. MOST OF ERN OK WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BEING THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY LATE 2ND
PERIOD (TUE NIGHT) INTO THE 3RD PERIOD (WED). CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST HAS PARTS OF NW AR...MAINLY CARROLL AND MADISON
COUNTIES...REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4+ INCHES) LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE JUST STILL ISN`T THERE FOR AN UPGRADE
TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME...SO WILL OPT TO KEEP THE WATCH AS IS.
HOPEFULLY THE 12Z DATA WILL CLEAR THINGS UP A BIT.

THURSDAY WILL BE COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM...WITH VERY
CHILLY LOWS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY MORNING. BUT A STRONG WARM UP IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  25  26  16 /  20  60  70  20
FSM   56  35  37  19 /  50  80  90  30
MLC   58  33  33  18 /  50  80  90  20
BVO   54  24  26  13 /  20  50  70  10
FYV   52  30  30  14 /  50  80  80  30
BYV   53  28  28  13 /  50  80  80  30
MKO   55  29  29  17 /  30  80  80  20
MIO   52  22  24  12 /  30  60  70  20
F10   56  28  28  18 /  30  70  70  20
HHW   61  40  40  21 /  50  80  90  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....18





000
FXUS64 KTSA 031008
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
408 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTH WINDS AND RESULTANT WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED WHICH HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY DENSE AT TIMES...BUT COVERAGE
ISN`T WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT SHOWERS.

BIG WEATHER CHANGES IN STORE FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FORECAST AREA COMES UNDER THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN 180+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR WARM ENOUGH
FOR MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...BUT EXPECT A TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SLEET AND SNOW FOR NE OK AND NW AR
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR LATER
FOR SE OK AND WCNTRL AR...WITH THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY ENDING AS SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST AR STILL LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST
SHOT AT SIGNIFICANT SNOW...WITH AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...AND
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SIGNIFICANT ICING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SE OK INTO WCNTRL
AR...WITH AMOUNTS BEING HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE
SUB-FREEZING LOW-LEVEL AIR ARRIVES.

HOW TO HANDLE THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES IS A RIDICULOUSLY TOUGH
CALL. MOST OF ERN OK WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BEING THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY LATE 2ND
PERIOD (TUE NIGHT) INTO THE 3RD PERIOD (WED). CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST HAS PARTS OF NW AR...MAINLY CARROLL AND MADISON
COUNTIES...REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4+ INCHES) LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE JUST STILL ISN`T THERE FOR AN UPGRADE
TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME...SO WILL OPT TO KEEP THE WATCH AS IS.
HOPEFULLY THE 12Z DATA WILL CLEAR THINGS UP A BIT.

THURSDAY WILL BE COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM...WITH VERY
CHILLY LOWS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY MORNING. BUT A STRONG WARM UP IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  25  26  16 /  20  60  70  20
FSM   56  35  37  19 /  50  80  90  30
MLC   58  33  33  18 /  50  80  90  20
BVO   54  24  26  13 /  20  50  70  10
FYV   52  30  30  14 /  50  80  80  30
BYV   53  28  28  13 /  50  80  80  30
MKO   55  29  29  17 /  30  80  80  20
MIO   52  22  24  12 /  30  60  70  20
F10   56  28  28  18 /  30  70  70  20
HHW   61  40  40  21 /  50  80  90  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....18





000
FXUS64 KTSA 031008
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
408 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTH WINDS AND RESULTANT WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED WHICH HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY DENSE AT TIMES...BUT COVERAGE
ISN`T WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT SHOWERS.

BIG WEATHER CHANGES IN STORE FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FORECAST AREA COMES UNDER THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN 180+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR WARM ENOUGH
FOR MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...BUT EXPECT A TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SLEET AND SNOW FOR NE OK AND NW AR
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR LATER
FOR SE OK AND WCNTRL AR...WITH THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY ENDING AS SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST AR STILL LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST
SHOT AT SIGNIFICANT SNOW...WITH AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...AND
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SIGNIFICANT ICING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SE OK INTO WCNTRL
AR...WITH AMOUNTS BEING HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE
SUB-FREEZING LOW-LEVEL AIR ARRIVES.

HOW TO HANDLE THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES IS A RIDICULOUSLY TOUGH
CALL. MOST OF ERN OK WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BEING THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY LATE 2ND
PERIOD (TUE NIGHT) INTO THE 3RD PERIOD (WED). CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST HAS PARTS OF NW AR...MAINLY CARROLL AND MADISON
COUNTIES...REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4+ INCHES) LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE JUST STILL ISN`T THERE FOR AN UPGRADE
TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME...SO WILL OPT TO KEEP THE WATCH AS IS.
HOPEFULLY THE 12Z DATA WILL CLEAR THINGS UP A BIT.

THURSDAY WILL BE COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM...WITH VERY
CHILLY LOWS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY MORNING. BUT A STRONG WARM UP IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  25  26  16 /  20  60  70  20
FSM   56  35  37  19 /  50  80  90  30
MLC   58  33  33  18 /  50  80  90  20
BVO   54  24  26  13 /  20  50  70  10
FYV   52  30  30  14 /  50  80  80  30
BYV   53  28  28  13 /  50  80  80  30
MKO   55  29  29  17 /  30  80  80  20
MIO   52  22  24  12 /  30  60  70  20
F10   56  28  28  18 /  30  70  70  20
HHW   61  40  40  21 /  50  80  90  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....18






000
FXUS64 KOUN 031005
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
405 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DRIZZLE... FOG... AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE
FA THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER THIS
MORNING BUT RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING IN PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL OK...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW PARTS OF THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF COLD AIR AND WINTER PRECIPITATION. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS
THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY
CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE FA WHERE
WOULD LIKELY RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST FREEZING RAIN. IF SFC TEMPS DROP
BELOW FREEZING SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST HIGHER ICE
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER... HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR
WHERE A POSSIBLE BAND DEVELOPS DUE TO FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
ALTHOUGH DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO END WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE
AREA. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AND LET THE DAY SHIFT
TAKE A LOOK AT THE LATEST MODEL DATA SINCE WOULD NOT LIKELY NEED ONE
UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT AND AFTER. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT WARNING
CRITERIA SO WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH.

AFTER WEDNESDAY THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY DESPITE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND AT LEAST ONE WEAK FRONT AFFECTING PARTS OF THE
REGION. MODELS SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO PART OF THE FA
SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
HOWEVER... THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH EFFECT IN THE FA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WARM LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY WARM
TO AROUND OR ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  26  27  18 /  20  60  70  20
HOBART OK         59  25  27  17 /  20  60  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  32  32  21 /  20  70  70  30
GAGE OK           53  18  25  11 /  10  50  70  10
PONCA CITY OK     54  20  26  14 /  20  30  70  10
DURANT OK         59  34  35  24 /  40  80  90  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 031005
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
405 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DRIZZLE... FOG... AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE
FA THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER THIS
MORNING BUT RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING IN PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL OK...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW PARTS OF THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF COLD AIR AND WINTER PRECIPITATION. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS
THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY
CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE FA WHERE
WOULD LIKELY RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST FREEZING RAIN. IF SFC TEMPS DROP
BELOW FREEZING SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST HIGHER ICE
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER... HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR
WHERE A POSSIBLE BAND DEVELOPS DUE TO FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
ALTHOUGH DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO END WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE
AREA. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AND LET THE DAY SHIFT
TAKE A LOOK AT THE LATEST MODEL DATA SINCE WOULD NOT LIKELY NEED ONE
UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT AND AFTER. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT WARNING
CRITERIA SO WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH.

AFTER WEDNESDAY THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY DESPITE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND AT LEAST ONE WEAK FRONT AFFECTING PARTS OF THE
REGION. MODELS SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO PART OF THE FA
SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
HOWEVER... THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH EFFECT IN THE FA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WARM LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY WARM
TO AROUND OR ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  26  27  18 /  20  60  70  20
HOBART OK         59  25  27  17 /  20  60  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  32  32  21 /  20  70  70  30
GAGE OK           53  18  25  11 /  10  50  70  10
PONCA CITY OK     54  20  26  14 /  20  30  70  10
DURANT OK         59  34  35  24 /  40  80  90  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 031005
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
405 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DRIZZLE... FOG... AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE
FA THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER THIS
MORNING BUT RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING IN PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL OK...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW PARTS OF THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF COLD AIR AND WINTER PRECIPITATION. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS
THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY
CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE FA WHERE
WOULD LIKELY RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST FREEZING RAIN. IF SFC TEMPS DROP
BELOW FREEZING SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST HIGHER ICE
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER... HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR
WHERE A POSSIBLE BAND DEVELOPS DUE TO FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
ALTHOUGH DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO END WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE
AREA. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AND LET THE DAY SHIFT
TAKE A LOOK AT THE LATEST MODEL DATA SINCE WOULD NOT LIKELY NEED ONE
UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT AND AFTER. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT WARNING
CRITERIA SO WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH.

AFTER WEDNESDAY THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY DESPITE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND AT LEAST ONE WEAK FRONT AFFECTING PARTS OF THE
REGION. MODELS SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO PART OF THE FA
SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
HOWEVER... THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH EFFECT IN THE FA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WARM LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY WARM
TO AROUND OR ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  26  27  18 /  20  60  70  20
HOBART OK         59  25  27  17 /  20  60  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  32  32  21 /  20  70  70  30
GAGE OK           53  18  25  11 /  10  50  70  10
PONCA CITY OK     54  20  26  14 /  20  30  70  10
DURANT OK         59  34  35  24 /  40  80  90  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 031005
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
405 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DRIZZLE... FOG... AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE
FA THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER THIS
MORNING BUT RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING IN PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL OK...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW PARTS OF THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF COLD AIR AND WINTER PRECIPITATION. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS
THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY
CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE FA WHERE
WOULD LIKELY RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST FREEZING RAIN. IF SFC TEMPS DROP
BELOW FREEZING SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST HIGHER ICE
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER... HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR
WHERE A POSSIBLE BAND DEVELOPS DUE TO FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
ALTHOUGH DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO END WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE
AREA. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AND LET THE DAY SHIFT
TAKE A LOOK AT THE LATEST MODEL DATA SINCE WOULD NOT LIKELY NEED ONE
UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT AND AFTER. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT WARNING
CRITERIA SO WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH.

AFTER WEDNESDAY THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY DESPITE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND AT LEAST ONE WEAK FRONT AFFECTING PARTS OF THE
REGION. MODELS SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO PART OF THE FA
SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
HOWEVER... THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH EFFECT IN THE FA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WARM LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY WARM
TO AROUND OR ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  26  27  18 /  20  60  70  20
HOBART OK         59  25  27  17 /  20  60  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  32  32  21 /  20  70  70  30
GAGE OK           53  18  25  11 /  10  50  70  10
PONCA CITY OK     54  20  26  14 /  20  30  70  10
DURANT OK         59  34  35  24 /  40  80  90  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 030555
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1155 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST MID MORNING TUESDAY. AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO AT LEAST
MVFR CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND OTHER AREAS TUESDAY EVENING. IFR
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 846 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

UPDATE...
WENT WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT SOUTHEAST
OF A KNOX CITY TEXAS TO PONCA CITY LINE. MADE VERY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
TO ALL HOURLY ELEMENTS.

DISCUSSION...
FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE IS
THE BIGGEST CONCERN.

LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATED VISIBILITIES 3 MILES OR LESS
ROUGHLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE WITH ADA REPORTING
1/4 MILE. ALSO...LATEST RADARS INDICATED SOME VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE
OCCURRING IN THESE FOGGY AREAS.

FOR NOW...WILL NOT ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THINKING LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL STAY JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SOME LOW LEVEL
MIXING AND KEEP WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FROM DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...WE
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR AS THERE IS CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT
AND EXPANSION. THE DRIZZLE MAY GET HEAVIER SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA
TO SHAWNEE LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
HRRR RUNS.

BLACKWELL AND NEWKIRK IN KAY COUNTY OKLAHOMA WERE THE ONLY TWO
MESONET STATIONS IN THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BELOW FREEZING AT 31
DEGREES AS OF 845 PM WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS AND DECREASING
VISIBILITIES. THINK TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS...SO NOT CONCERNED ABOUT
FREEZING FOG OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THESE AREAS.

WITH A SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RISE.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

AVIATION...
MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO NEAR IFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. A BETTER CHANCE OF DRIZZLE WILL BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALL TAF SITES...BUT WILL MENTION A CHANCE AT
LAW/SPS/OKC/OUN OVERNIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH SOME FOG...MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO AROUND 2-3SM. WINDS WILL VEER AHEAD OF A STRONG
FRONT ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL PROMOTE A BETTER CHANCE OF SUNSHINE
AND VFR CONDITIONS. THE FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST ARE CENTERED ON ANOTHER ROUND OF
WINTRY WEATHER EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG. VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT
INTO THE MORNING HOURS MAY FALL TO LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES WHERE
MORE DENSE FOG DEVELOPS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOCALIZED.

TOMORROW...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...AND WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...RELATIVELY WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS MAY FINALLY CLIMB
INTO THE 50S AND EVEN 60S IN SOME LOCATIONS. BUT DONT BE FOOLED!
OLD MAN WINTER IS SET TO REVISIT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN ARCTIC FRONT SURGES SOUTH...REACHING CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...AND MOVING SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER BY MIDNIGHT.

WITH THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH HANGING BACK TO THE WEST...PLENTY OF
LIFT WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
WINTRY PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM RAIN...TO FREEZING RAIN...TO
SLEET...AND FINALLY SNOW OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS TRANSITION LOOKS TO OCCUR RELATIVELY QUICKLY...IDEALLY
PREVENTING SUBSTANTIAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR MORE WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA SOUTH AND EAST OF I-44. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...WITH
PERHAPS 1 TO 3 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...FROM
WESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A HALF INCH LOOK
POSSIBLE. GIVEN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO
LOW 30S IN THE POST FRONTAL AIR...ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW/SLEET/AND
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ON ROADS...LEADING TO HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS. AS THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS...WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES OR WATCHES FOR NOW...BUT AS CONFIDENCE
INCREASES...ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

PRECIPITATION WILL END EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. A NOTED WARMING TREND IS ALSO FORECAST...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY THE
WEEKEND.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  36  59  26  28 /  20  20  50  60
HOBART OK         36  61  25  29 /  10  10  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  36  66  33  34 /  20  30  60  60
GAGE OK           36  54  20  26 /  10  10  50  60
PONCA CITY OK     33  53  23  28 /  20  20  30  50
DURANT OK         39  61  36  37 /  30  40  60  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 030555
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1155 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST MID MORNING TUESDAY. AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO AT LEAST
MVFR CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND OTHER AREAS TUESDAY EVENING. IFR
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 846 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

UPDATE...
WENT WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT SOUTHEAST
OF A KNOX CITY TEXAS TO PONCA CITY LINE. MADE VERY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
TO ALL HOURLY ELEMENTS.

DISCUSSION...
FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE IS
THE BIGGEST CONCERN.

LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATED VISIBILITIES 3 MILES OR LESS
ROUGHLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE WITH ADA REPORTING
1/4 MILE. ALSO...LATEST RADARS INDICATED SOME VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE
OCCURRING IN THESE FOGGY AREAS.

FOR NOW...WILL NOT ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THINKING LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL STAY JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SOME LOW LEVEL
MIXING AND KEEP WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FROM DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...WE
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR AS THERE IS CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT
AND EXPANSION. THE DRIZZLE MAY GET HEAVIER SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA
TO SHAWNEE LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
HRRR RUNS.

BLACKWELL AND NEWKIRK IN KAY COUNTY OKLAHOMA WERE THE ONLY TWO
MESONET STATIONS IN THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BELOW FREEZING AT 31
DEGREES AS OF 845 PM WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS AND DECREASING
VISIBILITIES. THINK TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS...SO NOT CONCERNED ABOUT
FREEZING FOG OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THESE AREAS.

WITH A SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RISE.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

AVIATION...
MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO NEAR IFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. A BETTER CHANCE OF DRIZZLE WILL BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALL TAF SITES...BUT WILL MENTION A CHANCE AT
LAW/SPS/OKC/OUN OVERNIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH SOME FOG...MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO AROUND 2-3SM. WINDS WILL VEER AHEAD OF A STRONG
FRONT ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL PROMOTE A BETTER CHANCE OF SUNSHINE
AND VFR CONDITIONS. THE FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST ARE CENTERED ON ANOTHER ROUND OF
WINTRY WEATHER EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG. VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT
INTO THE MORNING HOURS MAY FALL TO LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES WHERE
MORE DENSE FOG DEVELOPS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOCALIZED.

TOMORROW...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...AND WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...RELATIVELY WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS MAY FINALLY CLIMB
INTO THE 50S AND EVEN 60S IN SOME LOCATIONS. BUT DONT BE FOOLED!
OLD MAN WINTER IS SET TO REVISIT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN ARCTIC FRONT SURGES SOUTH...REACHING CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...AND MOVING SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER BY MIDNIGHT.

WITH THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH HANGING BACK TO THE WEST...PLENTY OF
LIFT WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
WINTRY PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM RAIN...TO FREEZING RAIN...TO
SLEET...AND FINALLY SNOW OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS TRANSITION LOOKS TO OCCUR RELATIVELY QUICKLY...IDEALLY
PREVENTING SUBSTANTIAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR MORE WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA SOUTH AND EAST OF I-44. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...WITH
PERHAPS 1 TO 3 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...FROM
WESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A HALF INCH LOOK
POSSIBLE. GIVEN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO
LOW 30S IN THE POST FRONTAL AIR...ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW/SLEET/AND
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ON ROADS...LEADING TO HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS. AS THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS...WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES OR WATCHES FOR NOW...BUT AS CONFIDENCE
INCREASES...ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

PRECIPITATION WILL END EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. A NOTED WARMING TREND IS ALSO FORECAST...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY THE
WEEKEND.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  36  59  26  28 /  20  20  50  60
HOBART OK         36  61  25  29 /  10  10  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  36  66  33  34 /  20  30  60  60
GAGE OK           36  54  20  26 /  10  10  50  60
PONCA CITY OK     33  53  23  28 /  20  20  30  50
DURANT OK         39  61  36  37 /  30  40  60  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 030555
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1155 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST MID MORNING TUESDAY. AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO AT LEAST
MVFR CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND OTHER AREAS TUESDAY EVENING. IFR
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 846 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

UPDATE...
WENT WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT SOUTHEAST
OF A KNOX CITY TEXAS TO PONCA CITY LINE. MADE VERY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
TO ALL HOURLY ELEMENTS.

DISCUSSION...
FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE IS
THE BIGGEST CONCERN.

LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATED VISIBILITIES 3 MILES OR LESS
ROUGHLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE WITH ADA REPORTING
1/4 MILE. ALSO...LATEST RADARS INDICATED SOME VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE
OCCURRING IN THESE FOGGY AREAS.

FOR NOW...WILL NOT ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THINKING LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL STAY JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SOME LOW LEVEL
MIXING AND KEEP WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FROM DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...WE
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR AS THERE IS CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT
AND EXPANSION. THE DRIZZLE MAY GET HEAVIER SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA
TO SHAWNEE LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
HRRR RUNS.

BLACKWELL AND NEWKIRK IN KAY COUNTY OKLAHOMA WERE THE ONLY TWO
MESONET STATIONS IN THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BELOW FREEZING AT 31
DEGREES AS OF 845 PM WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS AND DECREASING
VISIBILITIES. THINK TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS...SO NOT CONCERNED ABOUT
FREEZING FOG OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THESE AREAS.

WITH A SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RISE.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

AVIATION...
MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO NEAR IFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. A BETTER CHANCE OF DRIZZLE WILL BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALL TAF SITES...BUT WILL MENTION A CHANCE AT
LAW/SPS/OKC/OUN OVERNIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH SOME FOG...MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO AROUND 2-3SM. WINDS WILL VEER AHEAD OF A STRONG
FRONT ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL PROMOTE A BETTER CHANCE OF SUNSHINE
AND VFR CONDITIONS. THE FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST ARE CENTERED ON ANOTHER ROUND OF
WINTRY WEATHER EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG. VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT
INTO THE MORNING HOURS MAY FALL TO LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES WHERE
MORE DENSE FOG DEVELOPS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOCALIZED.

TOMORROW...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...AND WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...RELATIVELY WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS MAY FINALLY CLIMB
INTO THE 50S AND EVEN 60S IN SOME LOCATIONS. BUT DONT BE FOOLED!
OLD MAN WINTER IS SET TO REVISIT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN ARCTIC FRONT SURGES SOUTH...REACHING CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...AND MOVING SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER BY MIDNIGHT.

WITH THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH HANGING BACK TO THE WEST...PLENTY OF
LIFT WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
WINTRY PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM RAIN...TO FREEZING RAIN...TO
SLEET...AND FINALLY SNOW OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS TRANSITION LOOKS TO OCCUR RELATIVELY QUICKLY...IDEALLY
PREVENTING SUBSTANTIAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR MORE WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA SOUTH AND EAST OF I-44. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...WITH
PERHAPS 1 TO 3 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...FROM
WESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A HALF INCH LOOK
POSSIBLE. GIVEN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO
LOW 30S IN THE POST FRONTAL AIR...ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW/SLEET/AND
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ON ROADS...LEADING TO HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS. AS THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS...WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES OR WATCHES FOR NOW...BUT AS CONFIDENCE
INCREASES...ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

PRECIPITATION WILL END EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. A NOTED WARMING TREND IS ALSO FORECAST...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY THE
WEEKEND.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  36  59  26  28 /  20  20  50  60
HOBART OK         36  61  25  29 /  10  10  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  36  66  33  34 /  20  30  60  60
GAGE OK           36  54  20  26 /  10  10  50  60
PONCA CITY OK     33  53  23  28 /  20  20  30  50
DURANT OK         39  61  36  37 /  30  40  60  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 030527
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1127 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE ADDED AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG OVERNIGHT AND REMOVED
MEASURABLE POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN RISE A
COUPLE DEGREES OVERNIGHT AND HAVE ADJUSTED THEM ACCORDINGLY. HAVE
LEFT THE REST OF THE FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW. SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER STILL APPEARS LIKELY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH THE ISSUANCE OF
THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE ONCE THE NEW EVENING DATA IS FULLY
AVAILABLE.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&


.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...10





000
FXUS64 KTSA 030527
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1127 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE ADDED AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG OVERNIGHT AND REMOVED
MEASURABLE POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN RISE A
COUPLE DEGREES OVERNIGHT AND HAVE ADJUSTED THEM ACCORDINGLY. HAVE
LEFT THE REST OF THE FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW. SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER STILL APPEARS LIKELY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH THE ISSUANCE OF
THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE ONCE THE NEW EVENING DATA IS FULLY
AVAILABLE.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&


.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 030527
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1127 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE ADDED AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG OVERNIGHT AND REMOVED
MEASURABLE POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN RISE A
COUPLE DEGREES OVERNIGHT AND HAVE ADJUSTED THEM ACCORDINGLY. HAVE
LEFT THE REST OF THE FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW. SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER STILL APPEARS LIKELY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH THE ISSUANCE OF
THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE ONCE THE NEW EVENING DATA IS FULLY
AVAILABLE.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&


.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...10





000
FXUS64 KTSA 030527
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1127 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE ADDED AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG OVERNIGHT AND REMOVED
MEASURABLE POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN RISE A
COUPLE DEGREES OVERNIGHT AND HAVE ADJUSTED THEM ACCORDINGLY. HAVE
LEFT THE REST OF THE FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW. SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER STILL APPEARS LIKELY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH THE ISSUANCE OF
THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE ONCE THE NEW EVENING DATA IS FULLY
AVAILABLE.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&


.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 030342
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
942 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE ADDED AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG OVERNIGHT AND REMOVED
MEASURABLE POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN RISE A
COUPLE DEGREES OVERNIGHT AND HAVE ADJUSTED THEM ACCORDINGLY. HAVE
LEFT THE REST OF THE FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW. SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER STILL APPEARS LIKELY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH THE ISSUANCE OF
THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE ONCE THE NEW EVENING DATA IS FULLY
AVAILABLE.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....05

PLATE






000
FXUS64 KOUN 030246 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
846 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
WENT WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT SOUTHEAST
OF A KNOX CITY TEXAS TO PONCA CITY LINE. MADE VERY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
TO ALL HOURLY ELEMENTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE IS
THE BIGGEST CONCERN.

LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATED VISIBILITIES 3 MILES OR LESS
ROUGHLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE WITH ADA REPORTING
1/4 MILE. ALSO...LATEST RADARS INDICATED SOME VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE
OCCURRING IN THESE FOGGY AREAS.

FOR NOW...WILL NOT ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THINKING LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL STAY JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SOME LOW LEVEL
MIXING AND KEEP WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FROM DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...WE
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR AS THERE IS CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT
AND EXPANSION. THE DRIZZLE MAY GET HEAVIER SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA
TO SHAWNEE LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
HRRR RUNS.

BLACKWELL AND NEWKIRK IN KAY COUNTY OKLAHOMA WERE THE ONLY TWO
MESONET STATIONS IN THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BELOW FREEZING AT 31
DEGREES AS OF 845 PM WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS AND DECREASING
VISIBILITIES. THINK TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS...SO NOT CONCERNED ABOUT
FREEZING FOG OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THESE AREAS.

WITH A SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RISE.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

AVIATION...
MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO NEAR IFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. A BETTER CHANCE OF DRIZZLE WILL BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALL TAF SITES...BUT WILL MENTION A CHANCE AT
LAW/SPS/OKC/OUN OVERNIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH SOME FOG...MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO AROUND 2-3SM. WINDS WILL VEER AHEAD OF A STRONG
FRONT ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL PROMOTE A BETTER CHANCE OF SUNSHINE
AND VFR CONDITIONS. THE FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST ARE CENTERED ON ANOTHER ROUND OF
WINTRY WEATHER EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG. VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT
INTO THE MORNING HOURS MAY FALL TO LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES WHERE
MORE DENSE FOG DEVELOPS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOCALIZED.

TOMORROW...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...AND WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...RELATIVELY WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS MAY FINALLY CLIMB
INTO THE 50S AND EVEN 60S IN SOME LOCATIONS. BUT DONT BE FOOLED!
OLD MAN WINTER IS SET TO REVISIT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN ARCTIC FRONT SURGES SOUTH...REACHING CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...AND MOVING SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER BY MIDNIGHT.

WITH THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH HANGING BACK TO THE WEST...PLENTY OF
LIFT WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
WINTRY PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM RAIN...TO FREEZING RAIN...TO
SLEET...AND FINALLY SNOW OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS TRANSITION LOOKS TO OCCUR RELATIVELY QUICKLY...IDEALLY
PREVENTING SUBSTANTIAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR MORE WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA SOUTH AND EAST OF I-44. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...WITH
PERHAPS 1 TO 3 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...FROM
WESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A HALF INCH LOOK
POSSIBLE. GIVEN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO
LOW 30S IN THE POST FRONTAL AIR...ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW/SLEET/AND
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ON ROADS...LEADING TO HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS. AS THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS...WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES OR WATCHES FOR NOW...BUT AS CONFIDENCE
INCREASES...ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

PRECIPITATION WILL END EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. A NOTED WARMING TREND IS ALSO FORECAST...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY THE
WEEKEND.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  36  59  26  28 /  20  20  50  60
HOBART OK         36  61  25  29 /  10  10  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  36  66  33  34 /  20  30  60  60
GAGE OK           36  54  20  26 /  10  10  50  60
PONCA CITY OK     33  53  23  28 /  20  20  30  50
DURANT OK         39  61  36  37 /  30  40  60  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/06



000
FXUS64 KOUN 030246 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
846 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
WENT WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT SOUTHEAST
OF A KNOX CITY TEXAS TO PONCA CITY LINE. MADE VERY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
TO ALL HOURLY ELEMENTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE IS
THE BIGGEST CONCERN.

LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATED VISIBILITIES 3 MILES OR LESS
ROUGHLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE WITH ADA REPORTING
1/4 MILE. ALSO...LATEST RADARS INDICATED SOME VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE
OCCURRING IN THESE FOGGY AREAS.

FOR NOW...WILL NOT ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THINKING LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL STAY JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SOME LOW LEVEL
MIXING AND KEEP WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FROM DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...WE
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR AS THERE IS CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT
AND EXPANSION. THE DRIZZLE MAY GET HEAVIER SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA
TO SHAWNEE LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
HRRR RUNS.

BLACKWELL AND NEWKIRK IN KAY COUNTY OKLAHOMA WERE THE ONLY TWO
MESONET STATIONS IN THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BELOW FREEZING AT 31
DEGREES AS OF 845 PM WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS AND DECREASING
VISIBILITIES. THINK TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS...SO NOT CONCERNED ABOUT
FREEZING FOG OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THESE AREAS.

WITH A SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RISE.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

AVIATION...
MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO NEAR IFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. A BETTER CHANCE OF DRIZZLE WILL BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALL TAF SITES...BUT WILL MENTION A CHANCE AT
LAW/SPS/OKC/OUN OVERNIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH SOME FOG...MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO AROUND 2-3SM. WINDS WILL VEER AHEAD OF A STRONG
FRONT ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL PROMOTE A BETTER CHANCE OF SUNSHINE
AND VFR CONDITIONS. THE FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST ARE CENTERED ON ANOTHER ROUND OF
WINTRY WEATHER EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG. VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT
INTO THE MORNING HOURS MAY FALL TO LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES WHERE
MORE DENSE FOG DEVELOPS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOCALIZED.

TOMORROW...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...AND WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...RELATIVELY WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS MAY FINALLY CLIMB
INTO THE 50S AND EVEN 60S IN SOME LOCATIONS. BUT DONT BE FOOLED!
OLD MAN WINTER IS SET TO REVISIT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN ARCTIC FRONT SURGES SOUTH...REACHING CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...AND MOVING SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER BY MIDNIGHT.

WITH THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH HANGING BACK TO THE WEST...PLENTY OF
LIFT WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
WINTRY PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM RAIN...TO FREEZING RAIN...TO
SLEET...AND FINALLY SNOW OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS TRANSITION LOOKS TO OCCUR RELATIVELY QUICKLY...IDEALLY
PREVENTING SUBSTANTIAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR MORE WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA SOUTH AND EAST OF I-44. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...WITH
PERHAPS 1 TO 3 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...FROM
WESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A HALF INCH LOOK
POSSIBLE. GIVEN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO
LOW 30S IN THE POST FRONTAL AIR...ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW/SLEET/AND
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ON ROADS...LEADING TO HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS. AS THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS...WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES OR WATCHES FOR NOW...BUT AS CONFIDENCE
INCREASES...ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

PRECIPITATION WILL END EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. A NOTED WARMING TREND IS ALSO FORECAST...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY THE
WEEKEND.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  36  59  26  28 /  20  20  50  60
HOBART OK         36  61  25  29 /  10  10  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  36  66  33  34 /  20  30  60  60
GAGE OK           36  54  20  26 /  10  10  50  60
PONCA CITY OK     33  53  23  28 /  20  20  30  50
DURANT OK         39  61  36  37 /  30  40  60  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/06




000
FXUS64 KOUN 030246 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
846 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
WENT WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT SOUTHEAST
OF A KNOX CITY TEXAS TO PONCA CITY LINE. MADE VERY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
TO ALL HOURLY ELEMENTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE IS
THE BIGGEST CONCERN.

LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATED VISIBILITIES 3 MILES OR LESS
ROUGHLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE WITH ADA REPORTING
1/4 MILE. ALSO...LATEST RADARS INDICATED SOME VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE
OCCURRING IN THESE FOGGY AREAS.

FOR NOW...WILL NOT ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THINKING LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL STAY JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SOME LOW LEVEL
MIXING AND KEEP WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FROM DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...WE
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR AS THERE IS CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT
AND EXPANSION. THE DRIZZLE MAY GET HEAVIER SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA
TO SHAWNEE LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
HRRR RUNS.

BLACKWELL AND NEWKIRK IN KAY COUNTY OKLAHOMA WERE THE ONLY TWO
MESONET STATIONS IN THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BELOW FREEZING AT 31
DEGREES AS OF 845 PM WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS AND DECREASING
VISIBILITIES. THINK TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS...SO NOT CONCERNED ABOUT
FREEZING FOG OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THESE AREAS.

WITH A SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RISE.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

AVIATION...
MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO NEAR IFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. A BETTER CHANCE OF DRIZZLE WILL BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALL TAF SITES...BUT WILL MENTION A CHANCE AT
LAW/SPS/OKC/OUN OVERNIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH SOME FOG...MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO AROUND 2-3SM. WINDS WILL VEER AHEAD OF A STRONG
FRONT ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL PROMOTE A BETTER CHANCE OF SUNSHINE
AND VFR CONDITIONS. THE FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST ARE CENTERED ON ANOTHER ROUND OF
WINTRY WEATHER EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG. VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT
INTO THE MORNING HOURS MAY FALL TO LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES WHERE
MORE DENSE FOG DEVELOPS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOCALIZED.

TOMORROW...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...AND WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...RELATIVELY WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS MAY FINALLY CLIMB
INTO THE 50S AND EVEN 60S IN SOME LOCATIONS. BUT DONT BE FOOLED!
OLD MAN WINTER IS SET TO REVISIT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN ARCTIC FRONT SURGES SOUTH...REACHING CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...AND MOVING SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER BY MIDNIGHT.

WITH THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH HANGING BACK TO THE WEST...PLENTY OF
LIFT WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
WINTRY PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM RAIN...TO FREEZING RAIN...TO
SLEET...AND FINALLY SNOW OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS TRANSITION LOOKS TO OCCUR RELATIVELY QUICKLY...IDEALLY
PREVENTING SUBSTANTIAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR MORE WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA SOUTH AND EAST OF I-44. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...WITH
PERHAPS 1 TO 3 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...FROM
WESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A HALF INCH LOOK
POSSIBLE. GIVEN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO
LOW 30S IN THE POST FRONTAL AIR...ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW/SLEET/AND
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ON ROADS...LEADING TO HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS. AS THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS...WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES OR WATCHES FOR NOW...BUT AS CONFIDENCE
INCREASES...ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

PRECIPITATION WILL END EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. A NOTED WARMING TREND IS ALSO FORECAST...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY THE
WEEKEND.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  36  59  26  28 /  20  20  50  60
HOBART OK         36  61  25  29 /  10  10  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  36  66  33  34 /  20  30  60  60
GAGE OK           36  54  20  26 /  10  10  50  60
PONCA CITY OK     33  53  23  28 /  20  20  30  50
DURANT OK         39  61  36  37 /  30  40  60  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/06



000
FXUS64 KOUN 030246 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
846 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
WENT WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT SOUTHEAST
OF A KNOX CITY TEXAS TO PONCA CITY LINE. MADE VERY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
TO ALL HOURLY ELEMENTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE IS
THE BIGGEST CONCERN.

LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATED VISIBILITIES 3 MILES OR LESS
ROUGHLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE WITH ADA REPORTING
1/4 MILE. ALSO...LATEST RADARS INDICATED SOME VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE
OCCURRING IN THESE FOGGY AREAS.

FOR NOW...WILL NOT ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THINKING LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL STAY JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SOME LOW LEVEL
MIXING AND KEEP WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FROM DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...WE
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR AS THERE IS CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT
AND EXPANSION. THE DRIZZLE MAY GET HEAVIER SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA
TO SHAWNEE LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
HRRR RUNS.

BLACKWELL AND NEWKIRK IN KAY COUNTY OKLAHOMA WERE THE ONLY TWO
MESONET STATIONS IN THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BELOW FREEZING AT 31
DEGREES AS OF 845 PM WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS AND DECREASING
VISIBILITIES. THINK TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS...SO NOT CONCERNED ABOUT
FREEZING FOG OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THESE AREAS.

WITH A SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RISE.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

AVIATION...
MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO NEAR IFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. A BETTER CHANCE OF DRIZZLE WILL BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALL TAF SITES...BUT WILL MENTION A CHANCE AT
LAW/SPS/OKC/OUN OVERNIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH SOME FOG...MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO AROUND 2-3SM. WINDS WILL VEER AHEAD OF A STRONG
FRONT ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL PROMOTE A BETTER CHANCE OF SUNSHINE
AND VFR CONDITIONS. THE FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST ARE CENTERED ON ANOTHER ROUND OF
WINTRY WEATHER EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG. VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT
INTO THE MORNING HOURS MAY FALL TO LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES WHERE
MORE DENSE FOG DEVELOPS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOCALIZED.

TOMORROW...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...AND WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...RELATIVELY WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS MAY FINALLY CLIMB
INTO THE 50S AND EVEN 60S IN SOME LOCATIONS. BUT DONT BE FOOLED!
OLD MAN WINTER IS SET TO REVISIT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN ARCTIC FRONT SURGES SOUTH...REACHING CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...AND MOVING SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER BY MIDNIGHT.

WITH THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH HANGING BACK TO THE WEST...PLENTY OF
LIFT WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
WINTRY PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM RAIN...TO FREEZING RAIN...TO
SLEET...AND FINALLY SNOW OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS TRANSITION LOOKS TO OCCUR RELATIVELY QUICKLY...IDEALLY
PREVENTING SUBSTANTIAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR MORE WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA SOUTH AND EAST OF I-44. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...WITH
PERHAPS 1 TO 3 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...FROM
WESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A HALF INCH LOOK
POSSIBLE. GIVEN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO
LOW 30S IN THE POST FRONTAL AIR...ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW/SLEET/AND
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ON ROADS...LEADING TO HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS. AS THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS...WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES OR WATCHES FOR NOW...BUT AS CONFIDENCE
INCREASES...ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

PRECIPITATION WILL END EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. A NOTED WARMING TREND IS ALSO FORECAST...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY THE
WEEKEND.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  36  59  26  28 /  20  20  50  60
HOBART OK         36  61  25  29 /  10  10  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  36  66  33  34 /  20  30  60  60
GAGE OK           36  54  20  26 /  10  10  50  60
PONCA CITY OK     33  53  23  28 /  20  20  30  50
DURANT OK         39  61  36  37 /  30  40  60  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/06




000
FXUS64 KOUN 022356
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
556 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO NEAR IFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. A BETTER CHANCE OF DRIZZLE WILL BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALL TAF SITES...BUT WILL MENTION A CHANCE AT
LAW/SPS/OKC/OUN OVERNIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH SOME FOG...MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO AROUND 2-3SM. WINDS WILL VEER AHEAD OF A STRONG
FRONT ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL PROMOTE A BETTER CHANCE OF SUNSHINE
AND VFR CONDITIONS. THE FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST ARE CENTERED ON ANOTHER ROUND OF
WINTRY WEATHER EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG. VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT
INTO THE MORNING HOURS MAY FALL TO LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES WHERE
MORE DENSE FOG DEVELOPS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOCALIZED.

TOMORROW...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...AND WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...RELATIVELY WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS MAY FINALLY CLIMB
INTO THE 50S AND EVEN 60S IN SOME LOCATIONS. BUT DONT BE FOOLED!
OLD MAN WINTER IS SET TO REVISIT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN ARCTIC FRONT SURGES SOUTH...REACHING CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...AND MOVING SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER BY MIDNIGHT.

WITH THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH HANGING BACK TO THE WEST...PLENTY OF
LIFT WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
WINTRY PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM RAIN...TO FREEZING RAIN...TO
SLEET...AND FINALLY SNOW OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS TRANSITION LOOKS TO OCCUR RELATIVELY QUICKLY...IDEALLY
PREVENTING SUBSTANTIAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR MORE WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA SOUTH AND EAST OF I-44. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...WITH
PERHAPS 1 TO 3 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...FROM
WESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A HALF INCH LOOK
POSSIBLE. GIVEN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO
LOW 30S IN THE POST FRONTAL AIR...ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW/SLEET/AND
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ON ROADS...LEADING TO HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS. AS THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS...WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES OR WATCHES FOR NOW...BUT AS CONFIDENCE
INCREASES...ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

PRECIPITATION WILL END EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. A NOTED WARMING TREND IS ALSO FORECAST...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY THE
WEEKEND.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  38  59  26  28 /  20  20  50  60
HOBART OK         36  61  25  29 /  10  10  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  39  66  33  34 /  30  30  60  60
GAGE OK           36  54  20  26 /  10  10  50  60
PONCA CITY OK     36  53  23  28 /  10  20  30  50
DURANT OK         40  61  36  37 /  30  40  60  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 022356
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
556 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO NEAR IFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. A BETTER CHANCE OF DRIZZLE WILL BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALL TAF SITES...BUT WILL MENTION A CHANCE AT
LAW/SPS/OKC/OUN OVERNIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH SOME FOG...MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO AROUND 2-3SM. WINDS WILL VEER AHEAD OF A STRONG
FRONT ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL PROMOTE A BETTER CHANCE OF SUNSHINE
AND VFR CONDITIONS. THE FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST ARE CENTERED ON ANOTHER ROUND OF
WINTRY WEATHER EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG. VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT
INTO THE MORNING HOURS MAY FALL TO LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES WHERE
MORE DENSE FOG DEVELOPS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOCALIZED.

TOMORROW...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...AND WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...RELATIVELY WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS MAY FINALLY CLIMB
INTO THE 50S AND EVEN 60S IN SOME LOCATIONS. BUT DONT BE FOOLED!
OLD MAN WINTER IS SET TO REVISIT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN ARCTIC FRONT SURGES SOUTH...REACHING CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...AND MOVING SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER BY MIDNIGHT.

WITH THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH HANGING BACK TO THE WEST...PLENTY OF
LIFT WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
WINTRY PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM RAIN...TO FREEZING RAIN...TO
SLEET...AND FINALLY SNOW OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS TRANSITION LOOKS TO OCCUR RELATIVELY QUICKLY...IDEALLY
PREVENTING SUBSTANTIAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR MORE WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA SOUTH AND EAST OF I-44. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...WITH
PERHAPS 1 TO 3 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...FROM
WESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A HALF INCH LOOK
POSSIBLE. GIVEN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO
LOW 30S IN THE POST FRONTAL AIR...ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW/SLEET/AND
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ON ROADS...LEADING TO HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS. AS THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS...WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES OR WATCHES FOR NOW...BUT AS CONFIDENCE
INCREASES...ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

PRECIPITATION WILL END EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. A NOTED WARMING TREND IS ALSO FORECAST...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY THE
WEEKEND.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  38  59  26  28 /  20  20  50  60
HOBART OK         36  61  25  29 /  10  10  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  39  66  33  34 /  30  30  60  60
GAGE OK           36  54  20  26 /  10  10  50  60
PONCA CITY OK     36  53  23  28 /  10  20  30  50
DURANT OK         40  61  36  37 /  30  40  60  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 022356
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
556 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO NEAR IFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. A BETTER CHANCE OF DRIZZLE WILL BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALL TAF SITES...BUT WILL MENTION A CHANCE AT
LAW/SPS/OKC/OUN OVERNIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH SOME FOG...MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO AROUND 2-3SM. WINDS WILL VEER AHEAD OF A STRONG
FRONT ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL PROMOTE A BETTER CHANCE OF SUNSHINE
AND VFR CONDITIONS. THE FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST ARE CENTERED ON ANOTHER ROUND OF
WINTRY WEATHER EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG. VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT
INTO THE MORNING HOURS MAY FALL TO LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES WHERE
MORE DENSE FOG DEVELOPS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOCALIZED.

TOMORROW...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...AND WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...RELATIVELY WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS MAY FINALLY CLIMB
INTO THE 50S AND EVEN 60S IN SOME LOCATIONS. BUT DONT BE FOOLED!
OLD MAN WINTER IS SET TO REVISIT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN ARCTIC FRONT SURGES SOUTH...REACHING CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...AND MOVING SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER BY MIDNIGHT.

WITH THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH HANGING BACK TO THE WEST...PLENTY OF
LIFT WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
WINTRY PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM RAIN...TO FREEZING RAIN...TO
SLEET...AND FINALLY SNOW OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS TRANSITION LOOKS TO OCCUR RELATIVELY QUICKLY...IDEALLY
PREVENTING SUBSTANTIAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR MORE WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA SOUTH AND EAST OF I-44. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...WITH
PERHAPS 1 TO 3 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...FROM
WESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A HALF INCH LOOK
POSSIBLE. GIVEN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO
LOW 30S IN THE POST FRONTAL AIR...ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW/SLEET/AND
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ON ROADS...LEADING TO HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS. AS THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS...WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES OR WATCHES FOR NOW...BUT AS CONFIDENCE
INCREASES...ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

PRECIPITATION WILL END EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. A NOTED WARMING TREND IS ALSO FORECAST...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY THE
WEEKEND.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  38  59  26  28 /  20  20  50  60
HOBART OK         36  61  25  29 /  10  10  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  39  66  33  34 /  30  30  60  60
GAGE OK           36  54  20  26 /  10  10  50  60
PONCA CITY OK     36  53  23  28 /  10  20  30  50
DURANT OK         40  61  36  37 /  30  40  60  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KTSA 022339
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
539 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR CEILINGS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES
DUE TO FOG ALSO POSSIBLE. WENT WITH TEMPO AND PROB30 GROUPS
FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
FOR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

IN THE SHORT TERM...AS INITIAL SHORT WAVE SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS. ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL...OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AHEAD AND ALONG FRONTAL PASSAGE. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER/BRISK CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/SPREAD INTO THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS 190 KNOT UPPER JET STREAK
STRENGTHENS...EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

RAIN/FREEZING RAIN WILL BE LIKELY INITIALLY...BEFORE QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING TO A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX...THEN BECOMING ALL
SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HEAVIER SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
HEAVIER ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH AND/OR WARNING
COULD BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AS SNOW/ICE
AMOUNTS BECOME MORE CERTAIN.

WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES. COLD CONDITIONS BEHIND SYSTEM
THURSDAY BEFORE SLOW WARMING TREND DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$


AVIATION...10





000
FXUS64 KTSA 022339
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
539 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR CEILINGS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES
DUE TO FOG ALSO POSSIBLE. WENT WITH TEMPO AND PROB30 GROUPS
FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
FOR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

IN THE SHORT TERM...AS INITIAL SHORT WAVE SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS. ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL...OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AHEAD AND ALONG FRONTAL PASSAGE. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER/BRISK CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/SPREAD INTO THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS 190 KNOT UPPER JET STREAK
STRENGTHENS...EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

RAIN/FREEZING RAIN WILL BE LIKELY INITIALLY...BEFORE QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING TO A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX...THEN BECOMING ALL
SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HEAVIER SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
HEAVIER ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH AND/OR WARNING
COULD BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AS SNOW/ICE
AMOUNTS BECOME MORE CERTAIN.

WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES. COLD CONDITIONS BEHIND SYSTEM
THURSDAY BEFORE SLOW WARMING TREND DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$


AVIATION...10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 022339
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
539 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR CEILINGS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES
DUE TO FOG ALSO POSSIBLE. WENT WITH TEMPO AND PROB30 GROUPS
FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
FOR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

IN THE SHORT TERM...AS INITIAL SHORT WAVE SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS. ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL...OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AHEAD AND ALONG FRONTAL PASSAGE. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER/BRISK CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/SPREAD INTO THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS 190 KNOT UPPER JET STREAK
STRENGTHENS...EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

RAIN/FREEZING RAIN WILL BE LIKELY INITIALLY...BEFORE QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING TO A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX...THEN BECOMING ALL
SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HEAVIER SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
HEAVIER ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH AND/OR WARNING
COULD BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AS SNOW/ICE
AMOUNTS BECOME MORE CERTAIN.

WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES. COLD CONDITIONS BEHIND SYSTEM
THURSDAY BEFORE SLOW WARMING TREND DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$


AVIATION...10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 022339
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
539 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR CEILINGS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES
DUE TO FOG ALSO POSSIBLE. WENT WITH TEMPO AND PROB30 GROUPS
FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
FOR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

IN THE SHORT TERM...AS INITIAL SHORT WAVE SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS. ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL...OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AHEAD AND ALONG FRONTAL PASSAGE. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER/BRISK CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/SPREAD INTO THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS 190 KNOT UPPER JET STREAK
STRENGTHENS...EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

RAIN/FREEZING RAIN WILL BE LIKELY INITIALLY...BEFORE QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING TO A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX...THEN BECOMING ALL
SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HEAVIER SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
HEAVIER ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH AND/OR WARNING
COULD BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AS SNOW/ICE
AMOUNTS BECOME MORE CERTAIN.

WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES. COLD CONDITIONS BEHIND SYSTEM
THURSDAY BEFORE SLOW WARMING TREND DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$


AVIATION...10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 022339
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
539 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR CEILINGS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES
DUE TO FOG ALSO POSSIBLE. WENT WITH TEMPO AND PROB30 GROUPS
FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
FOR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

IN THE SHORT TERM...AS INITIAL SHORT WAVE SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS. ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL...OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AHEAD AND ALONG FRONTAL PASSAGE. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER/BRISK CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/SPREAD INTO THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS 190 KNOT UPPER JET STREAK
STRENGTHENS...EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

RAIN/FREEZING RAIN WILL BE LIKELY INITIALLY...BEFORE QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING TO A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX...THEN BECOMING ALL
SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HEAVIER SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
HEAVIER ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH AND/OR WARNING
COULD BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AS SNOW/ICE
AMOUNTS BECOME MORE CERTAIN.

WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES. COLD CONDITIONS BEHIND SYSTEM
THURSDAY BEFORE SLOW WARMING TREND DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$


AVIATION...10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 022339
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
539 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR CEILINGS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES
DUE TO FOG ALSO POSSIBLE. WENT WITH TEMPO AND PROB30 GROUPS
FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
FOR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

IN THE SHORT TERM...AS INITIAL SHORT WAVE SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS. ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL...OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AHEAD AND ALONG FRONTAL PASSAGE. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER/BRISK CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/SPREAD INTO THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS 190 KNOT UPPER JET STREAK
STRENGTHENS...EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

RAIN/FREEZING RAIN WILL BE LIKELY INITIALLY...BEFORE QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING TO A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX...THEN BECOMING ALL
SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HEAVIER SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
HEAVIER ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH AND/OR WARNING
COULD BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AS SNOW/ICE
AMOUNTS BECOME MORE CERTAIN.

WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES. COLD CONDITIONS BEHIND SYSTEM
THURSDAY BEFORE SLOW WARMING TREND DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$


AVIATION...10





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities