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000
FXUS64 KTSA 251120
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
620 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Showers and thunderstorms will affect northeast OK and northwest
AR through the morning before gradually weakening and movingeast.
This should result in period of MVFR ceilings early in the
forecast with improvement to VFR by afternoon. Additional
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon through tonight, however
confidence remains low and no mention of thunder will be carried
in the forecast after this morning. MVFR ceilings likely to
return late in the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Convection ongoing from far NW AR to SE OK is likely to weaken
and/or exit the forecast area early this morning. Additionally,
convection across SE KS continues to sage southward with continued
redevelopment as low level jet intercepts outflow boundary. This
process is expected to wane later this morning. Finally shortwave
ridging is expected for much of the day which is expected to limit
coverage of afternoon storm development. Storms which do develop
west nearer the dryline this afternoon may again congeal and track
somewhere across the forecast tonight. Despite the lack of defined
focus, the high instability environment will support a risk of
severe weather.

The more widespread storm coverage remains forecast for Thurs -
Friday as stronger forcing overspreads the Plains. Several rounds
of severe weather are likely to be ongoing through this period
some of which are likely to impact eastern OK and northwest AR.

The flow aloft does weaken behind the departing wave however an
unstable and weakly capped airmass will remain in place. This
along with a possible weak frontal boundary along with any subtle
forcing aloft necessitates the continuation of precip chances.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   88  73  85  69 /  40  30  40  60
FSM   86  72  83  68 /  40  40  50  60
MLC   84  73  82  69 /  20  30  30  60
BVO   87  70  84  68 /  80  30  30  60
FYV   81  68  81  66 /  40  30  40  60
BYV   83  69  82  64 /  50  30  30  60
MKO   85  72  82  67 /  20  30  40  60
MIO   84  71  84  68 /  80  30  40  60
F10   85  73  82  67 /  20  30  40  60
HHW   85  73  81  68 /  20  30  50  60

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14



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000
FXUS64 KOUN 250520
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1220 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The 06Z aviation discussion follows....

&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered thunderstorms will continue to move east/northeast
across parts of eastern Oklahoma overnight. It is possible that
additional storms will affect KPNC from 06Z to maybe 09Z or so.
Ceilings overnight will be mainly in the MVFR category, then rise
during the day Wednesday. A few thunderstorms may develop during
the afternoon or evening, but probabilities at any given site will
be quite low.

CmS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 820 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

UPDATE...
Cap has been too strong for much of the fa this evening with the
potential for severe storms decreasing. Storms in Kansas are
expected to develop into an MCS moving east. However, some storms
could build south into northern parts of the fa tonight. Northern
Oklahoma will be the area with the highest chances for any
showers/storms tonight. Some isolated/scattered elevated
showers/storms may be possible elsewhere as the llj increases but
many locations will likely remain dry overnight. With no or at
best a low chance of rain in parts of southwest OK and western
north Texas overnight and no heavy rain, the Flash Flood Watch
has been canceled.

Made adjustments to the POPS/Wx grids to show current thoughts
with highest POPS in northern/north central Oklahoma. Made some
minor tweaks to other grids to show current trends. All updates
out soon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 641 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
aviation discussion for the 00z tafs is below.

aviation...
overall...think conditions will worsen to mvfr at most sites
07-16z...then improve to vfr. not sure on the exact timing and
locations of mvfr conditions. ifr conditions may occur at some
sites 07-16z...though confidence is too low to mention.

chances for tsra seem to have decreased...though tsra remain
possible at most sites for the next 24 hours. only kept vcts near
kwwr...kpnc...and kgag through 05z where confidence of occurrence
is moderate.

mbs

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 242 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The primary focus of this discussion will be on strong to severe
thunderstorm chances this afternoon and evening.

Currently, 19z surface analysis reveals a weak outflow boundary from
the remnant convection that existed across southern Kansas earlier
this morning. This boundary has slowly pushed into northern
Oklahoma, becoming the focus for scattered thunderstorm development.
At the same time, a dryline continues to strengthen over the
Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Ahead of each of these boundaries, a
warm moist boundary layer remains in place; surface dew points are
well into the upper 60s and lower 70s. Additionally, low level
scattered to broken stratus remains in place across the region. The
24/19z sounding is currently coming in and still shows a modest
capping inversion over the region. However, it will continue to
weaken given moisture and heating taking place. In response to the
combination of the focus from the outflow and increased instability,
scattered thunderstorms will continue to fire in north central
Oklahoma. Expect this initial, early afternoon convection to persist
and remain focused in north central Oklahoma. Large damaging hail
will be the primary concern with this activity. However, given the
surface dew points in the low 70s, LCLs are obviously very low, and
although low level and deep layer shear isn`t overly impressive, a
strong updraft could easily modify the environment around it and
result in intense rotational updrafts.

Late afternoon into the evening, copious amounts of instability
continue to reside across the region, ahead of the dryline and
outflow boundary. MLCAPE values from the SPC mesoanalysis are well
over 3000 J/Kg, which is probably fairly accurate given the 70 F
surface dewpoints and a quick glance at the not quite finished
24/19z sounding. As mentioned above, deep layer shear through the
mid to late afternoon isn`t strong, but with the influence from the
approaching 500mb short wave feature across the Four Corners
(evident on WV), increasing mid-level winds will result in 0-6 Km
shear increasing across the region. Deep layer shear will range
anywhere from 35 to 45 kts ahead of the dryline, across western
Oklahoma. Model soundings from near the intersection of the dryline
and outflow boundary in northwestern Oklahoma reveal enhancement of
low level wind shear through the late afternoon hours, with values 20
to 30 kts, and 0-1 km SRH of 225 to 325 m2/s2. Storms that fire near
the intersection of these two boundaries and even farther south
along the dryline will easily produce strong rotating updrafts,
supportive of large damaging hail and the possibility of tornadoes.
The greatest concern will exist through from late afternoon through
sunset across northwestern Oklahoma. Across northern Oklahoma,
expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms to continue to fire along
the outflow into the evening. Although the tornado potential will be
lower for this activity, it`s still possible given any localized
enhancement of low level shear and low lcls, tornado development
remains possible.

Evening and overnight, near or after sunset, with decent 500mb
westerly flow, expect storms to move much more efficiently eastward
than the previous days. Storms will gradually form into one or more
clusters or potentially a line through the mid to late evening. This
remaining convection as it pushes eastward will likely reach central
Oklahoma by 9 to 10 PM, still capable of producing large hail,
damaging winds, locally heavy rainfall, and a low chance of a few
tornadoes. After midnight, scattered thunderstorms will likely
linger across portions of central Oklahoma before finally pushing
eastward through the early morning hours.

Additionally, given the excessive rainfall across southwestern
Oklahoma and western north Texas and possibility of additional
rainfall tonight, although light in many places, will continue to
run with a Flood Watch through 25/12Z.

Active pattern continues through the end of the week. Wednesday
could be a down day, but some recovery over western and southern
Oklahoma may result in a low chance of isolated to scattered
thunderstorms, a few of which may pose a risk for hail to the size
of golf balls. Severe thunderstorm chances will be greatest on
Thursday as a strong dryline will push into western Oklahoma and
western north Texas, with ample shear and instability prevalent.
Strong rotating updrafts are expected, supportive of large damaging
hail, damaging wind gusts, locally heavy rainfall, and tornadoes.

Stay safe and keep up to date with the latest forecasts.

Kurtz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  71  84  65  79 /  10  40  40  50
Hobart OK         69  88  65  84 /  10  50  40  20
Wichita Falls TX  72  87  65  83 /  10  50  60  50
Gage OK           62  90  61  84 /   0  30  20  20
Ponca City OK     71  86  67  80 /  10  40  40  40
Durant OK         71  82  67  76 /  20  40  60  80

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

03/23/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 250120 AAA
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
820 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Cap has been too strong for much of the fa this evening with the
potential for severe storms decreasing. Storms in Kansas are
expected to develop into an MCS moving east. However, some storms
could build south into northern parts of the fa tonight. Northern
Oklahoma will be the area with the highest chances for any
showers/storms tonight. Some isolated/scattered elevated
showers/storms may be possible elsewhere as the llj increases but
many locations will likely remain dry overnight. With no or at
best a low chance of rain in parts of southwest OK and western
north Texas overnight and no heavy rain, the Flash Flood Watch
has been canceled.

Made adjustments to the POPS/Wx grids to show current thoughts
with highest POPS in northern/north central Oklahoma. Made some
minor tweaks to other grids to show current trends. All updates
out soon.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 641 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
aviation discussion for the 00z tafs is below.

aviation...
overall...think conditions will worsen to mvfr at most sites
07-16z...then improve to vfr. not sure on the exact timing and
locations of mvfr conditions. ifr conditions may occur at some
sites 07-16z...though confidence is too low to mention.

chances for tsra seem to have decreased...though tsra remain
possible at most sites for the next 24 hours. only kept vcts near
kwwr...kpnc...and kgag through 05z where confidence of occurrence
is moderate.

mbs

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 242 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The primary focus of this discussion will be on strong to severe
thunderstorm chances this afternoon and evening.

Currently, 19z surface analysis reveals a weak outflow boundary from
the remnant convection that existed across southern Kansas earlier
this morning. This boundary has slowly pushed into northern
Oklahoma, becoming the focus for scattered thunderstorm development.
At the same time, a dryline continues to strengthen over the
Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Ahead of each of these boundaries, a
warm moist boundary layer remains in place; surface dew points are
well into the upper 60s and lower 70s. Additionally, low level
scattered to broken stratus remains in place across the region. The
24/19z sounding is currently coming in and still shows a modest
capping inversion over the region. However, it will continue to
weaken given moisture and heating taking place. In response to the
combination of the focus from the outflow and increased instability,
scattered thunderstorms will continue to fire in north central
Oklahoma. Expect this initial, early afternoon convection to persist
and remain focused in north central Oklahoma. Large damaging hail
will be the primary concern with this activity. However, given the
surface dew points in the low 70s, LCLs are obviously very low, and
although low level and deep layer shear isn`t overly impressive, a
strong updraft could easily modify the environment around it and
result in intense rotational updrafts.

Late afternoon into the evening, copious amounts of instability
continue to reside across the region, ahead of the dryline and
outflow boundary. MLCAPE values from the SPC mesoanalysis are well
over 3000 J/Kg, which is probably fairly accurate given the 70 F
surface dewpoints and a quick glance at the not quite finished
24/19z sounding. As mentioned above, deep layer shear through the
mid to late afternoon isn`t strong, but with the influence from the
approaching 500mb short wave feature across the Four Corners
(evident on WV), increasing mid-level winds will result in 0-6 Km
shear increasing across the region. Deep layer shear will range
anywhere from 35 to 45 kts ahead of the dryline, across western
Oklahoma. Model soundings from near the intersection of the dryline
and outflow boundary in northwestern Oklahoma reveal enhancement of
low level wind shear through the late afternoon hours, with values 20
to 30 kts, and 0-1 km SRH of 225 to 325 m2/s2. Storms that fire near
the intersection of these two boundaries and even farther south
along the dryline will easily produce strong rotating updrafts,
supportive of large damaging hail and the possibility of tornadoes.
The greatest concern will exist through from late afternoon through
sunset across northwestern Oklahoma. Across northern Oklahoma,
expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms to continue to fire along
the outflow into the evening. Although the tornado potential will be
lower for this activity, it`s still possible given any localized
enhancement of low level shear and low lcls, tornado development
remains possible.

Evening and overnight, near or after sunset, with decent 500mb
westerly flow, expect storms to move much more efficiently eastward
than the previous days. Storms will gradually form into one or more
clusters or potentially a line through the mid to late evening. This
remaining convection as it pushes eastward will likely reach central
Oklahoma by 9 to 10 PM, still capable of producing large hail,
damaging winds, locally heavy rainfall, and a low chance of a few
tornadoes. After midnight, scattered thunderstorms will likely
linger across portions of central Oklahoma before finally pushing
eastward through the early morning hours.

Additionally, given the excessive rainfall across southwestern
Oklahoma and western north Texas and possibility of additional
rainfall tonight, although light in many places, will continue to
run with a Flood Watch through 25/12Z.

Active pattern continues through the end of the week. Wednesday
could be a down day, but some recovery over western and southern
Oklahoma may result in a low chance of isolated to scattered
thunderstorms, a few of which may pose a risk for hail to the size
of golf balls. Severe thunderstorm chances will be greatest on
Thursday as a strong dryline will push into western Oklahoma and
western north Texas, with ample shear and instability prevalent.
Strong rotating updrafts are expected, supportive of large damaging
hail, damaging wind gusts, locally heavy rainfall, and tornadoes.

Stay safe and keep up to date with the latest forecasts.

Kurtz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  68  86  71  84 /  20  20  10  40
Hobart OK         70  91  69  88 /  20  20  10  50
Wichita Falls TX  72  90  72  87 /  20  20  10  50
Gage OK           63  93  62  90 /  20   0   0  30
Ponca City OK     67  89  71  86 /  40  10  10  40
Durant OK         70  84  71  82 /  20  20  20  40

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

25/17




000
FXUS64 KTSA 242302
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
602 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

...UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

RVS is the most likely terminal to be affected by TSRA in the
first few hours of the valid TAF period, with other terminals
unlikely to be impacted directly. The ongoing activity will be
close enough to TUL, though, that will still carry a VCTS, with
no visibility or ceiling restriction. Additional scattered TSRA
may develop and affect the E OK terminals late tonight and into
early tomorrow as well. MVFR ceilings should affect all terminals
from late tonight through much of the day tomorrow, with a gradual
improvement expected during the afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Scattered thunderstorms have developed this afternoon in the
vicinity of a decaying outflow boundary that extends from
northeast Oklahoma into north-central Oklahoma. Thunderstorms
have also developed across northwest Arkansas in response to an
MCV migrating across that area. These storms are forming in a
very unstable and weakly sheared environment. Could see damaging
winds to around 70 mph and large hail with these storms. The tornado
threat is low especially along the outflow boundary. This activity
is expected to diminish around sunset. Additional thunderstorms are
expected to develop later this afternoon and evening across western
Oklahoma and western Kansas. This activity could move into eastern
Oklahoma during the overnight hours and also pose a damaging wind
and hail threat. This activity would persist in the morning hours
Wednesday across far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

The chances of showers and thunderstorms decrease some on Wednesday with
no real focus for development. Since the airmass will not be changing
much could see some scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms in
the unstable and weakly capped environment. The chances of thunderstorms
increase Thursday night into Friday as a more significant upper level
shortwave moves out of the southwest and across the plains. This could
occur in the two rounds of thunderstorms, one Thursday night and one
on Friday afternoon. Severe weather will be possible with each round
with large hail and damaging winds the main concern. However, the
threat for tornadoes will also be a concern especially on Friday.

Storm chances diminish over the Holiday weekend. However, they do increase
into the chance range on Monday as a shortwave in the southwesterly flow
aloft moves across the southern plains.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22




000
FXUS64 KTSA 241728
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1228 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A few scattered showers/thunderstorms will be possible across northwest
Arkansas through mid afternoon in association with mid level circulation.
Additional thunderstorms also possible in the BVO area by mid/late
afternoon near outflow boundary. Exact timing of convection overnight
still remains uncertain and will generally cover eastern Oklahoma
TAF sites with prob30 groups. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected
outside any thunderstorm activity.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A few breaks in the cloud cover this morning has allowed temps
to quickly warm into the upper 70s in many locations. High
temperatures have been raised for this afternoon by a few degrees
across most areas before clouds begin to fill back in.

MCV from overnight thunderstorm complex, currently over east-
central Oklahoma, will provide focus for additional showers and
thunderstorms along/east of feature this afternoon. Additional
strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of
northeast Oklahoma by mid to late afternoon as outflow boundary
pushes south to near the Oklahoma/Kansas border.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$

SHORT TERM...12

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12




000
FXUS64 KOUN 241708 AAA
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1208 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.AVIATION...24/18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
Besides some brief breaks in clouds this morning, most sites will
remain BKN to OVC MVFR through much, if not all, of the period.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon across
portions of western and northern Oklahoma. Fairly confident in
impacts to KGAG/KWWR/KPNC late this afternoon and evening to
ceilings and vis from thunderstorms. Storms will move eastward
through the evening, with enough confidence for TEMPOS at
KOKC/KOUN.

Kurtz

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 628 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The 12Z aviation discussion follows....

AVIATION...
A large cluster of thunderstorms over central/northern Kansas will
advance southeast today, possibly affecting KPNC during the
afternoon or early evening. Another area of scattered
strong/severe storms will develop late in the afternoon near the
western border of Oklahoma. These storms may affect all TAF sites
in the western half of Oklahoma between 2300Z and about 0500Z.
Timing of these storms is very uncertain, as are the specific
expected locations. Ceilings will be highly variable this morning,
and probably again overnight tonight, varying between 1000 feet
and unlimited. Significant visibility restrictions are unlikely
outside thunderstorms.

CmS

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 355 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
An MCV over Caddo County early this morning will continue to move
east, and associated convection just to its south is expected to
weaken as the morning progresses. Although showers/thunderstorms
could form at almost any time today, it appears that the greatest
chances will be associated once again with dryline convection this
afternoon along the western border of Oklahoma. Additional storms
may form in north-central Oklahoma if outflow from the Kansas MCS
can make it that far south this afternoon or evening.

Chances for showers/thunderstorms will continue throughout the
forecast period, with only a few brief breaks. It is difficult to
accurately time shortwave troughs in the mid/upper flow, so the
confidence in the timing of the rain/storm chances is not
particularly high.

One of the stronger waves appears to pass over Oklahoma on
Thursday, although some models suggest that a second, equally
strong wave, will arrive on Friday. Depending on what actually
happens, it appears that Thursday and Friday could be days of
rather widespread storminess.

That should be followed by a relatively quiet Friday evening and
Saturday, before storm chances resume, and continue through early
next week.

We have elected to retain the Flood Watch unaltered because of the
risk of locally heavy rainfall with any storms that form over the
next day or so. The watch may be able to be canceled early if
storms fail to produce excessive rainfall this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  68  87  71  84 /  50  20  10  50
Hobart OK         69  91  69  87 /  40  10  10  50
Wichita Falls TX  72  90  72  86 /  20  20  10  60
Gage OK           63  94  62  89 /  40  10  10  30
Ponca City OK     69  89  71  86 /  60  20  10  40
Durant OK         70  84  71  81 /  30  10  20  50

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for OKZ021>023-027-033>039-
     044-045.

TX...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

09/04




000
FXUS64 KTSA 241604
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1104 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
A few breaks in the cloud cover this morning has allowed temps
to quickly warm into the upper 70s in many locations. High
temperatures have been raised for this afternoon by a few degrees
across most areas before clouds begin to fill back in.

MCV from overnight thunderstorm complex, currently over east-
central Oklahoma, will provide focus for additional showers and
thunderstorms along/east of feature this afternoon. Additional
strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of
northeast Oklahoma by mid to late afternoon as outflow boundary
pushes south to near the Oklahoma/Kansas border.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....10




000
FXUS64 KOUN 241128
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
628 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The 12Z aviation discussion follows....

&&

.AVIATION...
A large cluster of thunderstorms over central/northern Kansas will
advance southeast today, possibly affecting KPNC during the
afternoon or early evening. Another area of scattered
strong/severe storms will develop late in the afternoon near the
western border of Oklahoma. These storms may affect all TAF sites
in the western half of Oklahoma between 2300Z and about 0500Z.
Timing of these storms is very uncertain, as are the specific
expected locations. Ceilings will be highly variable this morning,
and probably again overnight tonight, varying between 1000 feet
and unlimited. Significant visibility restrictions are unlikely
outside thunderstorms.

CmS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 355 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
An MCV over Caddo County early this morning will continue to move
east, and associated convection just to its south is expected to
weaken as the morning progresses. Although showers/thunderstorms
could form at almost any time today, it appears that the greatest
chances will be associated once again with dryline convection this
afternoon along the western border of Oklahoma. Additional storms
may form in north-central Oklahoma if outflow from the Kansas MCS
can make it that far south this afternoon or evening.

Chances for showers/thunderstorms will continue throughout the
forecast period, with only a few brief breaks. It is difficult to
accurately time shortwave troughs in the mid/upper flow, so the
confidence in the timing of the rain/storm chances is not
particularly high.

One of the stronger waves appears to pass over Oklahoma on
Thursday, although some models suggest that a second, equally
strong wave, will arrive on Friday. Depending on what actually
happens, it appears that Thursday and Friday could be days of
rather widespread storminess.

That should be followed by a relatively quiet Friday evening and
Saturday, before storm chances resume, and continue through early
next week.

We have elected to retain the Flood Watch unaltered because of the
risk of locally heavy rainfall with any storms that form over the
next day or so. The watch may be able to be canceled early if
storms fail to produce excessive rainfall this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  82  68  87  71 /  30  50  20  10
Hobart OK         85  69  91  69 /  30  40  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  87  72  90  72 /  20  20  20  10
Gage OK           89  63  94  62 /  40  40  10  10
Ponca City OK     81  69  89  71 /  60  60  20  10
Durant OK         82  70  84  71 /  20  30  10  20

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for OKZ021>023-027-033>039-
     044-045.

TX...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

03/23/23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 241106
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
606 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will be increasing later this
morning into the afternoon with another increase in chances late
tonight. In general, VFR conditions will prevail through the
period, except with more significant thunderstorms which could
lead to brief IFR conditions.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
00z RAOBs across the Southern Plains sampled seasonably high
values of low level moisture while also recording a broad fetch of
steep mid level lapse rates. The result being a broad zone of
strong instability which, when weakly capped amidst subtle
forcing, often causes issues within numerical models. This pattern
has been, and will continue to be, in play through the forecast
period.

Focus for today is ongoing small MCS ongoing over south central OK
which may spread into SE OK later this morning. Also extensive
convection has been maintained across NW KS with veered 50kt low
level jet fueling continued generation along the southwestern
flank. This complex is the larger short term concern as numerous
CAM solutions either sustain the ongoing convection southeastward
or push a remnant outflow boundary into NE OK today. Either
scenario would provide a focus for additional storms to develop in
the aforementioned weakly capped and unstable airmass and pose a
severe weather risk. This scenario contains plenty of uncertainty
but enough data support the potential to raise precip chances
today.

Storm will also form west of the area on the dryline this
afternoon and attempt to spread eastward into E OK this evening
and/or overnight. How far east and to what intensity level largely
depends on how convection evolves during the day.

Wednesday continues to appear as the day with the least amount of
storm coverage. A stronger wave is still on track to influx the
Southern Plains Thursday through Friday. Numerous rounds of severe
storms look likely across the Plains beginning Thurs afternoon
and likely continuing Thursday night into Friday. Thunderstorm
chances will be maintained through next weekend as the pattern
remains unsettled.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  71  87  72 /  60  40  20  20
FSM   82  70  85  72 /  60  30  20  20
MLC   80  72  83  73 /  60  50  20  20
BVO   80  68  87  69 /  60  40  20  20
FYV   77  67  82  69 /  60  30  20  20
BYV   78  67  82  69 /  60  30  20  20
MKO   80  69  83  71 /  60  50  20  20
MIO   78  69  84  69 /  60  40  20  20
F10   81  71  83  71 /  60  50  20  20
HHW   81  71  84  71 /  40  50  20  20

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...14




000
FXUS64 KOUN 232331
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
631 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
0Z TAF discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR ceilings will be possible again tonight in parts of the
area. Showers/storms could affect parts of the area later this
evening into Tuesday morning. Lots of uncertainty if or where this
will happen but the best chance seems to be in parts of southwest
OK and western north TX. Additional thunderstorm development will
be possible Tuesday afternoon/evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 208 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Taking it one day at a time... the primary forecast focus for this
discussion will be on the development of strong to severe
thunderstorms across western Oklahoma and western north Texas late
this afternoon and evening.

Currently, from 18z surface analysis, a portion of the dryline has
surged well east of the Caprock, almost following a path up the Palo
Duro Canyon region. 18Z obs from Pampa has a dew point of 51 F,
while West Texas Mesonet ob from Memphis has 70 F. Ahead of the
dryline, scattered to broken low level stratus continues to linger,
but breaks in coverage continue to reveal themselves and surface
temperatures from western Oklahoma into western north Texas have
climbed into the upper 70s to lower 80s already. Additionally,
isolated strong thunderstorms continue to crop up within the warm
moist sector across southern Oklahoma and north central Oklahoma.
Given the instability, a few of these early afternoon storms, pre
dryline, could be strong to marginally severe.

Moving forward through the mid to late afternoon, a decent short
wave lifting across northern New Mexico at present, will aid in
helping the dryline mix farther east into western north Texas and
near the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle border. Instability has continued
to increase, with a narrow ribbon of 2500 to 3000 J/Kg MLCAPE
building just ahead and east of the dryline, along with a wider area
of 1500 to 2500 J/Kg across the remainder of western Oklahoma and
western north Texas. Mid-level wind support is not overly
impressive across the region, given no significant outside forcing
beyond the dryline. 700mb winds are only about 20 kts. This has
resulted in modest deep layer shear of 30 to 35 kts on average.
Still, paired with the available instability, this should be enough
to support rotating updrafts and large hail development, up to the
size of tennis balls with the initial convection expected to fire on
the dryline later this afternoon. Low level wind shear is weak, and
will remain so until the low level jet begins to increase after
24/00z. With southerly 850mb winds increasing and sufficient
southerly surface flow maintaining ahead of the dryline into the
evening, 0-1km shear values will increase within an window of time
after 00z across western north Texas into southwestern Oklahoma,
with values approaching 20kts. Although still not overly
impressive,resulting in 0-1 km SRH values nearing 200 S^2/H^2,
paired with any strong updrafts, a few tornadoes cannot be ruled
out.

Farther to the north this afternoon and evening, the northern push
of the dryline into northwestern Oklahoma will be another place to
watch for storm development. Surface analysis reveals a surface low
centered over southwestern Kansas, just north of the Oklahoma
Panhandle. Situated near the northern edge of the instability axis
and associated frontal boundary, there is enough support for a few
storms to develop capable of large hail development.

Overnight, conditions are shaping up to be similar to Sunday
night/Monday morning. Storms over the southern Texas Panhandle,
west/southwest Oklahoma, and western north Texas will merge through
the late evening, laying down a decent cold pool, which will aid in
propagation of storms east and southeastward across southern
Oklahoma and western north Texas. The big concern with this
evolution overnight will be flooding. After persistent heavy
rainfall last night and this morning over the same area, additional
slow storm movement and efficient rain production tonight, flooding
concerns are obviously heightened and a flood watch remains in
effect. We have no plans of expanding the current watch that was
issued by the night shift as the location and timing look spot on
(hat tip to Ryan and Bruce).

For the reminder of the week, thunderstorm chances will continue
near daily, with the best chances for strong to severe thunderstorm
tomorrow (Tuesday), Thursday, and Friday. Once again, the dryline
will redevelop across the eastern portions of the Oklahoma and Texas
Panhandles Tuesday. Expect enough atmospheric recovery to generate
severe storms, capable of large damaging hail, damaging wind gusts,
and a low possibility of tornadoes with the strongest updrafts. Once
again, storms will be slow moving and could pose a flooding threat
once again depending on residence time and their rainfall rates,
which should be decent. Wednesday appears to be a down day, with
only a slight chance of thunderstorms across the region. Thursday
will have influence from an evolving 500mb shortwave that will be
digging across the Four Corners region Wednesday night into
Thursday. Into the afternoon, the dryline will strengthen over the
eastern Panhandles and surge into western Oklahoma through the late
afternoon, under the influence from an advancing surface trough off
the Colorado high plains. Stout deep layer shear and sufficient
instability will promote supercellular development along the dryline
in western Oklahoma. Large damaging hail, damaging wind gusts, and
tornadoes are possible. Friday`s setup is much less impressive at
the moment than Thursday, but thunderstorms will be possible again
as the surface front pushes into northwest Oklahoma and a weaker
dryline mixes near I-44 in southwestern Oklahoma. The shear
environment is less favorable, but a few strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible, with hail the primary concern at
this time.

Stay safe this week and keep up to date with the latest forecasts.

Kurtz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  68  82  68  87 /  40  20  40  10
Hobart OK         68  85  69  91 /  50  40  30  10
Wichita Falls TX  69  86  71  90 /  70  40  30  10
Gage OK           66  89  63  93 /  40  30  20  10
Ponca City OK     68  82  69  88 /  40  30  40  20
Durant OK         69  82  70  84 /  50  30  40  20

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for OKZ021>023-027-033>039-
     044-045.

TX...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

11/25/25




000
FXUS64 KTSA 231747
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1247 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms continue to persist across Osage County
this afternoon as a 35kt low level jet continues to funnel into
that area. The MCV continue across northeast Oklahoma with the
majority of the convection associated with this feature fading.
Have adjusted the pops and temperatures for this afternoon with
the cloud cover expected to keep temperatures a few degree lower.


&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10




000
FXUS64 KOUN 231705 AAA
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1205 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.AVIATION...23/18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
Tricky aviation forecast over the next several hours. Broken to
overcast MVFR ceilings will continue to impact airfields and TAF
sites across portions of central and southern Oklahoma through the
mid to late afternoon. Across western Oklahoma and western north
Texas, scattered to broken MVFR ceilings will continue to improve
to VFR through the afternoon. The biggest concern for aviation
will be thunderstorm development late this afternoon and evening
across portions of western Oklahoma and western north Texas.
Confidence in timing and coverage has increased for TAF sites
across the southwest, including KCSM/KHBR/KLAW/KSPS. Therefore,
utilized TEMPO groups, after 00Z for most. Expect a complex of
storms to develop similar to last night, primarily impacting
southern Oklahoma and northern Texas overnight.

Kurtz

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 928 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

UPDATE...
Quick morning update to thunderstorm chances through this
evening.

DISCUSSION...
Jumping on the forecast early this morning given the chance for
severe storms developing on/just east of the Caprock and moving
into far western north Texas and southwestern Oklahoma late this
Afternoon and evening. Guidance, both traditional and mesoscale,
are in decent agreement with the redevelopment of the dryline on
the Llano Estacado and its mixing eastward through the mid
afternoon across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Dew points
across the Panhandles to central Oklahoma continue to reside in
the low to mid 60s, with sites farther south in western north
Texas already reaching the upper 60s to near 70s. the MCS that
moved across southern Oklahoma and northern Texas overnight has
had some impact, but recovery is already well underway farther
west. The fly in the ointment at the moment is the broken to
overcast stratus spread across the area. In western Oklahoma,
breaks have been fairly evident, and temperatures are already in
the upper 60s and lower 70s. Agree with the night shift and with
latest SPC outlook, some form of a triple point will develop
south/southwest of the Red River, east of the Caprock this
afternoon. Solutions from the HRRRx and TTU WRF continue to pick
this as the primary initiation point. The operational HRRR and
traditional guidance continue to fire convection along a surging
point in the dryline early this afternoon in northwestern
Oklahoma/southwestern Kansas. This is likely overdone given the
current conditions, overcast skies, limiting heating this morning.
However, isolated thunderstorms may develop in the region, but
probably not as widespread as some of the solutions attempt.

Therefore, increased precip chances to likelys across southern
Oklahoma and western north Texas from late this afternoon through
the evening and into the overnight hours. Confidence is high for
storm development and and increase from chance PoPs was necessary.
Not to rehash the previous discussion, but instability and shear
will be plenty enough for the development of large damaging hail,
damaging winds, and the possibility of a few tornadoes.

Of greater concern for many will be the potential for flooding
overnight, especially across portions of southern Oklahoma and
northern Texas where excessive rainfall fell last night and this
morning. Once again, this afternoon`s storms are expected to merge
into a complex and propagate eastward overnight, slowly. A flood
watch is in effect for this region and may need to be extended,
but this will be addressed with the afternoon forecast.

Kurtz

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 850 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

UPDATE...
Updated pops and slowed diurnal warming trend this morning.

DISCUSSION...
Showers/storms continue to move east with a new area of storms
that developed just east of OKC/Norman. Have updated short-term
pops with the latest trends in radar and satellite. HRRR/RAP and
various hi-res models show redevelopment before 18z across
northwest and central Oklahoma so have adjusted late morning pops
to account for this possibility. And made significant changes to
the hourly temperatures and dewpoints given the cloud cover will
keep temperatures cooler this morning and the post-convective
worked over airmass keeping dewpoints lower. Still expect we will
see eventual recovery to forecast highs, but it will likely take
some time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 659 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
A few thunderstorms remain near SPS and OKC/OUN early this
morning, and may continue for a couple more hours. Otherwise,
expect MVFR cigs to return late this morning for a few terminals
before becoming VFR by this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected again tonight, mainly after 00Z. Confidence in timing
is not exceptional, however, so expect some amendments/changes to
future TAFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 405 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
An MCS continues its track across southern OK and north TX early
this morning. Very heavy rainfall and damaging winds accompanied
it earlier, and are still expected across southern OK through the
early morning hours. Most of this activity should move out of our
area near or before sunrise. Later this afternoon storms will
initiate along the dryline again from the southeastern TX
panhandle into western and northwestern OK, and move east during
the evening hours. Supercells will be likely, with ALL severe
weather threats possible. The highest rainfall totals are again
expected over western and southwestern OK, and western north TX.
These areas already received a significant amount of rainfall this
morning so we have decided to issue a Flood Watch thru early Wed
AM.

The overall forecast has changed very little for the work week.
The severe threat will continue to shift slowly east each day
with the dryline and approaching upper trough. The tornado threat
should also increase during the late afternoon and early evening
hours with the onset of the LLJ, especially across western and
southwestern OK by Tue. There may be a break in COVERAGE Wednesday with
surface convergence becoming a bit more diffuse along the
dryline. However, if any isolated supercells can manage to develop
they will again be capable of producing ALL severe weather
threats.

By Thursday, a southern stream mid to upper level shortwave trough
is expected to lift over northeast TX and into SE OK around mid
day. Heavy rainfall and embedded supercells will be possible with
this activity. Further west, the upper trough will begin to near
the southern plains with rapid height falls and increasing mid to
upper flow expected over the dryline across western OK.
Widespread severe weather continues to appear possible thru
Thursday night, including the threat of tornadoes. Finally, by
Friday, the upper trough will being to lift northeastward but will
not pass overhead until late Friday night. Additional severe
weather will remain possible from along/just west of I35 through
eastern OK.

Additional storm chances are expected through the weekend and into
early next week as another upper trough moves over the western
CONUS and WSW flow aloft ahead of it continues over the Southern
Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  67  83  68  86 /  50  20  50  20
Hobart OK         68  87  69  90 /  60  50  40  20
Wichita Falls TX  69  87  71  90 /  70  30  30  20
Gage OK           67  91  64  93 /  40  20  30  10
Ponca City OK     68  83  69  88 /  40  30  50  20
Durant OK         70  83  70  84 /  50  30  40  20

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Flood Watch from 3 PM CDT this afternoon through Wednesday
     morning for OKZ021>023-027-033>039-044-045.

TX...Flood Watch from 3 PM CDT this afternoon through Wednesday
     morning for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

09/04/04




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