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000
FXUS64 KTSA 211743
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1143 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
OVERCAST IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN THE MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT FOR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...THOUGH FROM LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES WILL STAY WITH MVFR
FOR NOW. SOME SCATTERED PRECIP MAYBE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH GREATEST CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
WILL CARRY VCSH/PROB30/TSRA GROUPS FOR PRECIP TIMING. PERIODS OF
LIFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY PRECIP SUNDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
AT MID MORNING A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA TEXAS PANHANDLES...WHILE A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHT NEAR THE RED RIVER WAS BEGINNING
TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND WARM
FRONT...SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WITHIN AN AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY WAS
LIFTING NORTHEAST WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE. ACROSS THE
REST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH EASTERLY WINDS WERE COMMON OVER MOST OF THE CWA.

THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXIT INTO KANSAS/MISSOURI THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HELP TO STREAM MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ALREADY BEING OBSERVED OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL AID IN THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...AN
ISOLATED CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE CWA SHOULD ALSO RISE SOME BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S COMMON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. PARTS OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS COULD BE LAST TO SEE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THUS
HIGHS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST POPS/WX GRIDS BASES ON CURRENT
TRENDS AND TO KEEP THUNDER CHANCES ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL AT
THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER WAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  54  62  54 /  40  30  70  50
FSM   55  50  62  53 /  50  30  70  80
MLC   61  56  61  54 /  40  60  80  70
BVO   55  51  62  53 /  50  30  60  50
FYV   54  50  59  53 /  50  30  70  80
BYV   50  47  60  52 /  40  30  70  80
MKO   56  52  61  54 /  40  40  80  70
MIO   55  51  61  53 /  60  30  60  70
F10   59  55  61  54 /  40  60  80  60
HHW   62  54  63  55 /  60  60  90  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20





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000
FXUS64 KOUN 211625 AAB
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1025 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
LOWERED MAX TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH THE PERSISTENT STRATUS AND FOG...TEMPS ARE GOING TO STRUGGLE
TO RISE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WENT WITH A GFS SOLUTION TO
BRING MAX TEMPS DOWN.

MAD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

UPDATE...
ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...
VISIBILITIES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAVE DROPPED TO 1/4
MILE OR LESS. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND TIME OF THE YEAR...FOG
MAY PERSIST EVEN PAST NOON.

MAD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 850 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

UPDATE...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND EXTENDED MENTION OF FOG.

DISCUSSION...
WITH THE INCOMING MOISTURE...VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO LESS
THAN A MILE IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE WARM FRONT. A LOW
STRATUS DECK HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS AND THE TIME OF YEAR...THESE LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING.

NOT REALLY SEEING ANY INDICATIONS OF RAIN THIS MORNING...BUT GIVEN
THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE...PATCHY DRIZZLE IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

MAD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...
21/12Z TAFS...IFR CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NW
THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THERE EARLY IN THE PD. LOWEST
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WILL BE IN THE VICNITY OF WEAK
SURFACE FROM SW CRNR OF OK NEWD INTO NCNTRL OK. SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR...MAINLY WESTERN AREAS.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING AGAIN
THIS EVENING WITH MORE WIDEPSREAD RAIN AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA DEVELOPING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RETURN NORTHWARD THIS MORNING WITH LOW
ALREADY COVERING CENTRAL AND SRN AREAS AND SPREADING INTO THE
WEST. PATCHY FOG ALSO DEVELOPING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES...ESP NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM SW INTO
NCNTRL OK. CONTINUED ISENT LIFT THROUGH THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. UPPER
LOW OVER SRN CA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD INTO NRN
MEXICO OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING FAR SW TX BY SAT MORNING. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH. A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SW PARTS OF THE FA AIDED BY STOUT LOW LEVEL JET. UPPER
SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS ON SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH.
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
INTO SCNTRL/SE OK AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS FROM SW TX TOWARD THE
ARKLATEX BY SUNDAY MORNING. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER S/W TROUGH DROPS QUICKLY SEWD FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP EXPECTED AND PERIODIC WEAK COLD
FRONTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  61  52  62  51 /  20  60  80  40
HOBART OK         57  46  62  47 /  10  50  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  62  55  64  48 /  10  80  90  30
GAGE OK           47  38  62  40 /  10  10  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     53  47  62  51 /  40  50  60  40
DURANT OK         63  55  62  52 /  30  70 100  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR OKZ005>008-011>013-
     017>020-026.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/04




000
FXUS64 KOUN 211625 AAB
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1025 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
LOWERED MAX TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH THE PERSISTENT STRATUS AND FOG...TEMPS ARE GOING TO STRUGGLE
TO RISE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WENT WITH A GFS SOLUTION TO
BRING MAX TEMPS DOWN.

MAD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

UPDATE...
ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...
VISIBILITIES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAVE DROPPED TO 1/4
MILE OR LESS. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND TIME OF THE YEAR...FOG
MAY PERSIST EVEN PAST NOON.

MAD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 850 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

UPDATE...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND EXTENDED MENTION OF FOG.

DISCUSSION...
WITH THE INCOMING MOISTURE...VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO LESS
THAN A MILE IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE WARM FRONT. A LOW
STRATUS DECK HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS AND THE TIME OF YEAR...THESE LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING.

NOT REALLY SEEING ANY INDICATIONS OF RAIN THIS MORNING...BUT GIVEN
THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE...PATCHY DRIZZLE IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

MAD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...
21/12Z TAFS...IFR CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NW
THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THERE EARLY IN THE PD. LOWEST
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WILL BE IN THE VICNITY OF WEAK
SURFACE FROM SW CRNR OF OK NEWD INTO NCNTRL OK. SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR...MAINLY WESTERN AREAS.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING AGAIN
THIS EVENING WITH MORE WIDEPSREAD RAIN AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA DEVELOPING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RETURN NORTHWARD THIS MORNING WITH LOW
ALREADY COVERING CENTRAL AND SRN AREAS AND SPREADING INTO THE
WEST. PATCHY FOG ALSO DEVELOPING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES...ESP NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM SW INTO
NCNTRL OK. CONTINUED ISENT LIFT THROUGH THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. UPPER
LOW OVER SRN CA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD INTO NRN
MEXICO OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING FAR SW TX BY SAT MORNING. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH. A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SW PARTS OF THE FA AIDED BY STOUT LOW LEVEL JET. UPPER
SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS ON SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH.
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
INTO SCNTRL/SE OK AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS FROM SW TX TOWARD THE
ARKLATEX BY SUNDAY MORNING. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER S/W TROUGH DROPS QUICKLY SEWD FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP EXPECTED AND PERIODIC WEAK COLD
FRONTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  61  52  62  51 /  20  60  80  40
HOBART OK         57  46  62  47 /  10  50  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  62  55  64  48 /  10  80  90  30
GAGE OK           47  38  62  40 /  10  10  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     53  47  62  51 /  40  50  60  40
DURANT OK         63  55  62  52 /  30  70 100  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR OKZ005>008-011>013-
     017>020-026.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/04




000
FXUS64 KOUN 211625 AAB
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1025 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
LOWERED MAX TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH THE PERSISTENT STRATUS AND FOG...TEMPS ARE GOING TO STRUGGLE
TO RISE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WENT WITH A GFS SOLUTION TO
BRING MAX TEMPS DOWN.

MAD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

UPDATE...
ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...
VISIBILITIES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAVE DROPPED TO 1/4
MILE OR LESS. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND TIME OF THE YEAR...FOG
MAY PERSIST EVEN PAST NOON.

MAD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 850 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

UPDATE...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND EXTENDED MENTION OF FOG.

DISCUSSION...
WITH THE INCOMING MOISTURE...VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO LESS
THAN A MILE IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE WARM FRONT. A LOW
STRATUS DECK HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS AND THE TIME OF YEAR...THESE LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING.

NOT REALLY SEEING ANY INDICATIONS OF RAIN THIS MORNING...BUT GIVEN
THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE...PATCHY DRIZZLE IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

MAD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...
21/12Z TAFS...IFR CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NW
THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THERE EARLY IN THE PD. LOWEST
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WILL BE IN THE VICNITY OF WEAK
SURFACE FROM SW CRNR OF OK NEWD INTO NCNTRL OK. SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR...MAINLY WESTERN AREAS.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING AGAIN
THIS EVENING WITH MORE WIDEPSREAD RAIN AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA DEVELOPING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RETURN NORTHWARD THIS MORNING WITH LOW
ALREADY COVERING CENTRAL AND SRN AREAS AND SPREADING INTO THE
WEST. PATCHY FOG ALSO DEVELOPING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES...ESP NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM SW INTO
NCNTRL OK. CONTINUED ISENT LIFT THROUGH THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. UPPER
LOW OVER SRN CA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD INTO NRN
MEXICO OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING FAR SW TX BY SAT MORNING. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH. A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SW PARTS OF THE FA AIDED BY STOUT LOW LEVEL JET. UPPER
SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS ON SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH.
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
INTO SCNTRL/SE OK AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS FROM SW TX TOWARD THE
ARKLATEX BY SUNDAY MORNING. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER S/W TROUGH DROPS QUICKLY SEWD FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP EXPECTED AND PERIODIC WEAK COLD
FRONTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  61  52  62  51 /  20  60  80  40
HOBART OK         57  46  62  47 /  10  50  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  62  55  64  48 /  10  80  90  30
GAGE OK           47  38  62  40 /  10  10  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     53  47  62  51 /  40  50  60  40
DURANT OK         63  55  62  52 /  30  70 100  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR OKZ005>008-011>013-
     017>020-026.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/04




000
FXUS64 KOUN 211625 AAB
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1025 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
LOWERED MAX TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH THE PERSISTENT STRATUS AND FOG...TEMPS ARE GOING TO STRUGGLE
TO RISE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WENT WITH A GFS SOLUTION TO
BRING MAX TEMPS DOWN.

MAD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

UPDATE...
ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...
VISIBILITIES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAVE DROPPED TO 1/4
MILE OR LESS. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND TIME OF THE YEAR...FOG
MAY PERSIST EVEN PAST NOON.

MAD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 850 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

UPDATE...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND EXTENDED MENTION OF FOG.

DISCUSSION...
WITH THE INCOMING MOISTURE...VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO LESS
THAN A MILE IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE WARM FRONT. A LOW
STRATUS DECK HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS AND THE TIME OF YEAR...THESE LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING.

NOT REALLY SEEING ANY INDICATIONS OF RAIN THIS MORNING...BUT GIVEN
THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE...PATCHY DRIZZLE IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

MAD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...
21/12Z TAFS...IFR CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NW
THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THERE EARLY IN THE PD. LOWEST
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WILL BE IN THE VICNITY OF WEAK
SURFACE FROM SW CRNR OF OK NEWD INTO NCNTRL OK. SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR...MAINLY WESTERN AREAS.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING AGAIN
THIS EVENING WITH MORE WIDEPSREAD RAIN AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA DEVELOPING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RETURN NORTHWARD THIS MORNING WITH LOW
ALREADY COVERING CENTRAL AND SRN AREAS AND SPREADING INTO THE
WEST. PATCHY FOG ALSO DEVELOPING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES...ESP NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM SW INTO
NCNTRL OK. CONTINUED ISENT LIFT THROUGH THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. UPPER
LOW OVER SRN CA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD INTO NRN
MEXICO OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING FAR SW TX BY SAT MORNING. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH. A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SW PARTS OF THE FA AIDED BY STOUT LOW LEVEL JET. UPPER
SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS ON SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH.
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
INTO SCNTRL/SE OK AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS FROM SW TX TOWARD THE
ARKLATEX BY SUNDAY MORNING. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER S/W TROUGH DROPS QUICKLY SEWD FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP EXPECTED AND PERIODIC WEAK COLD
FRONTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  61  52  62  51 /  20  60  80  40
HOBART OK         57  46  62  47 /  10  50  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  62  55  64  48 /  10  80  90  30
GAGE OK           47  38  62  40 /  10  10  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     53  47  62  51 /  40  50  60  40
DURANT OK         63  55  62  52 /  30  70 100  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR OKZ005>008-011>013-
     017>020-026.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/04




000
FXUS64 KTSA 211605
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1005 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
AT MID MORNING A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA TEXAS PANHANDLES...WHILE A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHT NEAR THE RED RIVER WAS BEGINNING
TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND WARM
FRONT...SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WITHIN AN AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY WAS
LIFTING NORTHEAST WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE. ACROSS THE
REST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH EASTERLY WINDS WERE COMMON OVER MOST OF THE CWA.

THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXIT INTO KANSAS/MISSOURI THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HELP TO STREAM MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ALREADY BEING OBSERVED OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL AID IN THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...AN
ISOLATED CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE CWA SHOULD ALSO RISE SOME BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S COMMON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. PARTS OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS COULD BE LAST TO SEE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THUS
HIGHS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST POPS/WX GRIDS BASES ON CURRENT
TRENDS AND TO KEEP THUNDER CHANCES ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL AT
THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER WAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  54  62  54 /  50  50  70  50
FSM   55  50  62  53 /  50  50  60  70
MLC   61  56  61  54 /  40  60  70  70
BVO   55  51  62  53 /  70  50  60  50
FYV   54  50  59  53 /  50  50  60  70
BYV   50  47  60  52 /  40  40  50  70
MKO   56  52  61  54 /  40  60  80  60
MIO   55  51  61  53 /  80  40  60  60
F10   59  55  61  54 /  40  60  80  60
HHW   62  54  63  55 /  60  70  70  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 211605
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1005 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
AT MID MORNING A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA TEXAS PANHANDLES...WHILE A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHT NEAR THE RED RIVER WAS BEGINNING
TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND WARM
FRONT...SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WITHIN AN AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY WAS
LIFTING NORTHEAST WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE. ACROSS THE
REST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH EASTERLY WINDS WERE COMMON OVER MOST OF THE CWA.

THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXIT INTO KANSAS/MISSOURI THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HELP TO STREAM MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ALREADY BEING OBSERVED OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL AID IN THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...AN
ISOLATED CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE CWA SHOULD ALSO RISE SOME BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S COMMON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. PARTS OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS COULD BE LAST TO SEE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THUS
HIGHS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST POPS/WX GRIDS BASES ON CURRENT
TRENDS AND TO KEEP THUNDER CHANCES ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL AT
THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER WAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  54  62  54 /  50  50  70  50
FSM   55  50  62  53 /  50  50  60  70
MLC   61  56  61  54 /  40  60  70  70
BVO   55  51  62  53 /  70  50  60  50
FYV   54  50  59  53 /  50  50  60  70
BYV   50  47  60  52 /  40  40  50  70
MKO   56  52  61  54 /  40  60  80  60
MIO   55  51  61  53 /  80  40  60  60
F10   59  55  61  54 /  40  60  80  60
HHW   62  54  63  55 /  60  70  70  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....30






000
FXUS64 KOUN 211605 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1005 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VISIBILITIES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAVE DROPPED TO 1/4
MILE OR LESS. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND TIME OF THE YEAR...FOG
MAY PERSIST EVEN PAST NOON.

MAD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 850 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

UPDATE...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND EXTENDED MENTION OF FOG.

DISCUSSION...
WITH THE INCOMING MOISTURE...VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO LESS
THAN A MILE IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE WARM FRONT. A LOW
STRATUS DECK HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS AND THE TIME OF YEAR...THESE LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING.

NOT REALLY SEEING ANY INDICATIONS OF RAIN THIS MORNING...BUT GIVEN
THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE...PATCHY DRIZZLE IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

MAD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...
21/12Z TAFS...IFR CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NW
THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THERE EARLY IN THE PD. LOWEST
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WILL BE IN THE VICNITY OF WEAK
SURFACE FROM SW CRNR OF OK NEWD INTO NCNTRL OK. SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR...MAINLY WESTERN AREAS.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING AGAIN
THIS EVENING WITH MORE WIDEPSREAD RAIN AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA DEVELOPING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RETURN NORTHWARD THIS MORNING WITH LOW
ALREADY COVERING CENTRAL AND SRN AREAS AND SPREADING INTO THE
WEST. PATCHY FOG ALSO DEVELOPING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES...ESP NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM SW INTO
NCNTRL OK. CONTINUED ISENT LIFT THROUGH THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. UPPER
LOW OVER SRN CA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD INTO NRN
MEXICO OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING FAR SW TX BY SAT MORNING. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH. A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SW PARTS OF THE FA AIDED BY STOUT LOW LEVEL JET. UPPER
SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS ON SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH.
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
INTO SCNTRL/SE OK AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS FROM SW TX TOWARD THE
ARKLATEX BY SUNDAY MORNING. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER S/W TROUGH DROPS QUICKLY SEWD FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP EXPECTED AND PERIODIC WEAK COLD
FRONTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  61  52  62  51 /  20  60  80  40
HOBART OK         56  46  62  47 /  10  50  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  64  55  64  48 /  10  80  90  30
GAGE OK           52  38  62  40 /  10  10  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     54  47  62  51 /  40  50  60  40
DURANT OK         64  55  62  52 /  30  70 100  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR OKZ005>008-011>013-
     017>020-026.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/04



000
FXUS64 KOUN 211605 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1005 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VISIBILITIES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAVE DROPPED TO 1/4
MILE OR LESS. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND TIME OF THE YEAR...FOG
MAY PERSIST EVEN PAST NOON.

MAD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 850 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

UPDATE...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND EXTENDED MENTION OF FOG.

DISCUSSION...
WITH THE INCOMING MOISTURE...VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO LESS
THAN A MILE IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE WARM FRONT. A LOW
STRATUS DECK HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS AND THE TIME OF YEAR...THESE LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING.

NOT REALLY SEEING ANY INDICATIONS OF RAIN THIS MORNING...BUT GIVEN
THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE...PATCHY DRIZZLE IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

MAD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...
21/12Z TAFS...IFR CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NW
THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THERE EARLY IN THE PD. LOWEST
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WILL BE IN THE VICNITY OF WEAK
SURFACE FROM SW CRNR OF OK NEWD INTO NCNTRL OK. SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR...MAINLY WESTERN AREAS.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING AGAIN
THIS EVENING WITH MORE WIDEPSREAD RAIN AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA DEVELOPING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RETURN NORTHWARD THIS MORNING WITH LOW
ALREADY COVERING CENTRAL AND SRN AREAS AND SPREADING INTO THE
WEST. PATCHY FOG ALSO DEVELOPING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES...ESP NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM SW INTO
NCNTRL OK. CONTINUED ISENT LIFT THROUGH THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. UPPER
LOW OVER SRN CA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD INTO NRN
MEXICO OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING FAR SW TX BY SAT MORNING. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH. A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SW PARTS OF THE FA AIDED BY STOUT LOW LEVEL JET. UPPER
SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS ON SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH.
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
INTO SCNTRL/SE OK AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS FROM SW TX TOWARD THE
ARKLATEX BY SUNDAY MORNING. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER S/W TROUGH DROPS QUICKLY SEWD FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP EXPECTED AND PERIODIC WEAK COLD
FRONTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  61  52  62  51 /  20  60  80  40
HOBART OK         56  46  62  47 /  10  50  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  64  55  64  48 /  10  80  90  30
GAGE OK           52  38  62  40 /  10  10  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     54  47  62  51 /  40  50  60  40
DURANT OK         64  55  62  52 /  30  70 100  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR OKZ005>008-011>013-
     017>020-026.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/04




000
FXUS64 KOUN 211450
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
850 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND EXTENDED MENTION OF FOG.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH THE INCOMING MOISTURE...VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO LESS
THAN A MILE IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE WARM FRONT. A LOW
STRATUS DECK HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS AND THE TIME OF YEAR...THESE LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING.

NOT REALLY SEEING ANY INDICATIONS OF RAIN THIS MORNING...BUT GIVEN
THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE...PATCHY DRIZZLE IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

MAD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...
21/12Z TAFS...IFR CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NW
THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THERE EARLY IN THE PD. LOWEST
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WILL BE IN THE VICNITY OF WEAK
SURFACE FROM SW CRNR OF OK NEWD INTO NCNTRL OK. SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR...MAINLY WESTERN AREAS.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING AGAIN
THIS EVENING WITH MORE WIDEPSREAD RAIN AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA DEVELOPING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RETURN NORTHWARD THIS MORNING WITH LOW
ALREADY COVERING CENTRAL AND SRN AREAS AND SPREADING INTO THE
WEST. PATCHY FOG ALSO DEVELOPING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES...ESP NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM SW INTO
NCNTRL OK. CONTINUED ISENT LIFT THROUGH THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. UPPER
LOW OVER SRN CA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD INTO NRN
MEXICO OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING FAR SW TX BY SAT MORNING. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH. A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SW PARTS OF THE FA AIDED BY STOUT LOW LEVEL JET. UPPER
SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS ON SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH.
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
INTO SCNTRL/SE OK AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS FROM SW TX TOWARD THE
ARKLATEX BY SUNDAY MORNING. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER S/W TROUGH DROPS QUICKLY SEWD FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP EXPECTED AND PERIODIC WEAK COLD
FRONTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  61  52  62  51 /  20  60  80  40
HOBART OK         56  46  62  47 /  10  50  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  64  55  64  48 /  10  80  90  30
GAGE OK           52  38  62  40 /  10  10  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     54  47  62  51 /  40  50  60  40
DURANT OK         64  55  62  52 /  30  70 100  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/04




000
FXUS64 KOUN 211450
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
850 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND EXTENDED MENTION OF FOG.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH THE INCOMING MOISTURE...VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO LESS
THAN A MILE IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE WARM FRONT. A LOW
STRATUS DECK HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS AND THE TIME OF YEAR...THESE LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING.

NOT REALLY SEEING ANY INDICATIONS OF RAIN THIS MORNING...BUT GIVEN
THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE...PATCHY DRIZZLE IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

MAD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...
21/12Z TAFS...IFR CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NW
THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THERE EARLY IN THE PD. LOWEST
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WILL BE IN THE VICNITY OF WEAK
SURFACE FROM SW CRNR OF OK NEWD INTO NCNTRL OK. SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR...MAINLY WESTERN AREAS.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING AGAIN
THIS EVENING WITH MORE WIDEPSREAD RAIN AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA DEVELOPING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RETURN NORTHWARD THIS MORNING WITH LOW
ALREADY COVERING CENTRAL AND SRN AREAS AND SPREADING INTO THE
WEST. PATCHY FOG ALSO DEVELOPING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES...ESP NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM SW INTO
NCNTRL OK. CONTINUED ISENT LIFT THROUGH THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. UPPER
LOW OVER SRN CA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD INTO NRN
MEXICO OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING FAR SW TX BY SAT MORNING. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH. A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SW PARTS OF THE FA AIDED BY STOUT LOW LEVEL JET. UPPER
SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS ON SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH.
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
INTO SCNTRL/SE OK AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS FROM SW TX TOWARD THE
ARKLATEX BY SUNDAY MORNING. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER S/W TROUGH DROPS QUICKLY SEWD FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP EXPECTED AND PERIODIC WEAK COLD
FRONTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  61  52  62  51 /  20  60  80  40
HOBART OK         56  46  62  47 /  10  50  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  64  55  64  48 /  10  80  90  30
GAGE OK           52  38  62  40 /  10  10  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     54  47  62  51 /  40  50  60  40
DURANT OK         64  55  62  52 /  30  70 100  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/04



000
FXUS64 KOUN 211136
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
21/12Z TAFS...IFR CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NW
THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THERE EARLY IN THE PD. LOWEST
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WILL BE IN THE VICNITY OF WEAK
SURFACE FROM SW CRNR OF OK NEWD INTO NCNTRL OK. SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR...MAINLY WESTERN AREAS.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING AGAIN
THIS EVENING WITH MORE WIDEPSREAD RAIN AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA DEVELOPING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RETURN NORTHWARD THIS MORNING WITH LOW
ALREADY COVERING CENTRAL AND SRN AREAS AND SPREADING INTO THE
WEST. PATCHY FOG ALSO DEVELOPING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES...ESP NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM SW INTO
NCNTRL OK. CONTINUED ISENT LIFT THROUGH THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. UPPER
LOW OVER SRN CA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD INTO NRN
MEXICO OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING FAR SW TX BY SAT MORNING. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH. A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SW PARTS OF THE FA AIDED BY STOUT LOW LEVEL JET. UPPER
SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS ON SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH.
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
INTO SCNTRL/SE OK AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS FROM SW TX TOWARD THE
ARKLATEX BY SUNDAY MORNING. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER S/W TROUGH DROPS QUICKLY SEWD FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP EXPECTED AND PERIODIC WEAK COLD
FRONTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  61  52  62  51 /  30  60  80  40
HOBART OK         56  46  62  47 /  10  50  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  64  55  64  48 /  10  80  90  30
GAGE OK           52  38  62  40 /  10  10  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     54  47  62  51 /  50  50  60  40
DURANT OK         64  55  62  52 /  30  70 100  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/02




000
FXUS64 KOUN 211136
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
21/12Z TAFS...IFR CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NW
THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THERE EARLY IN THE PD. LOWEST
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WILL BE IN THE VICNITY OF WEAK
SURFACE FROM SW CRNR OF OK NEWD INTO NCNTRL OK. SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR...MAINLY WESTERN AREAS.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING AGAIN
THIS EVENING WITH MORE WIDEPSREAD RAIN AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA DEVELOPING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RETURN NORTHWARD THIS MORNING WITH LOW
ALREADY COVERING CENTRAL AND SRN AREAS AND SPREADING INTO THE
WEST. PATCHY FOG ALSO DEVELOPING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES...ESP NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM SW INTO
NCNTRL OK. CONTINUED ISENT LIFT THROUGH THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. UPPER
LOW OVER SRN CA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD INTO NRN
MEXICO OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING FAR SW TX BY SAT MORNING. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH. A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SW PARTS OF THE FA AIDED BY STOUT LOW LEVEL JET. UPPER
SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS ON SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH.
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
INTO SCNTRL/SE OK AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS FROM SW TX TOWARD THE
ARKLATEX BY SUNDAY MORNING. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER S/W TROUGH DROPS QUICKLY SEWD FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP EXPECTED AND PERIODIC WEAK COLD
FRONTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  61  52  62  51 /  30  60  80  40
HOBART OK         56  46  62  47 /  10  50  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  64  55  64  48 /  10  80  90  30
GAGE OK           52  38  62  40 /  10  10  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     54  47  62  51 /  50  50  60  40
DURANT OK         64  55  62  52 /  30  70 100  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/02



000
FXUS64 KTSA 211128
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
528 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -RA/-TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT ALL SITES
FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. AN APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD LIGHT RAIN FORM SE-NW TODAY. LOWER COVERAGE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL ONCE AGAIN EXPAND AFTER
00Z-02Z WITH PREVAILING CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDINESS HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL
REMAIN FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AS MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INCREASES. WE ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SEE SHOWERS
DEVELOP AT THIS TIME AND THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO GROW UPSCALE
SOMEWHAT AS SUNRISE APPROACHES.

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR EL PASO BY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE TURNING EAST
AND NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX. THIS WILL KEEP THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING MAINLY FOCUSED NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER WITH MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

SOME DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUNSHINE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACCOMPANIED BY A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODIC FRONTAL
PASSAGES CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO BE ON A BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER
RIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOLLOWING EACH FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND THEN QUCIKLY WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL IN ADVANCE OF
THE SUCCEEDING FRONT. THE FREQUENT FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL PRECLUDE
ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN SO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
INTO...AND POSSIBLY THROUGH...THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KTSA 211128
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
528 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -RA/-TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT ALL SITES
FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. AN APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD LIGHT RAIN FORM SE-NW TODAY. LOWER COVERAGE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL ONCE AGAIN EXPAND AFTER
00Z-02Z WITH PREVAILING CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDINESS HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL
REMAIN FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AS MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INCREASES. WE ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SEE SHOWERS
DEVELOP AT THIS TIME AND THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO GROW UPSCALE
SOMEWHAT AS SUNRISE APPROACHES.

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR EL PASO BY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE TURNING EAST
AND NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX. THIS WILL KEEP THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING MAINLY FOCUSED NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER WITH MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

SOME DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUNSHINE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACCOMPANIED BY A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODIC FRONTAL
PASSAGES CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO BE ON A BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER
RIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOLLOWING EACH FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND THEN QUCIKLY WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL IN ADVANCE OF
THE SUCCEEDING FRONT. THE FREQUENT FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL PRECLUDE
ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN SO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
INTO...AND POSSIBLY THROUGH...THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KTSA 211128
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
528 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -RA/-TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT ALL SITES
FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. AN APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD LIGHT RAIN FORM SE-NW TODAY. LOWER COVERAGE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL ONCE AGAIN EXPAND AFTER
00Z-02Z WITH PREVAILING CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDINESS HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL
REMAIN FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AS MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INCREASES. WE ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SEE SHOWERS
DEVELOP AT THIS TIME AND THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO GROW UPSCALE
SOMEWHAT AS SUNRISE APPROACHES.

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR EL PASO BY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE TURNING EAST
AND NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX. THIS WILL KEEP THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING MAINLY FOCUSED NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER WITH MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

SOME DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUNSHINE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACCOMPANIED BY A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODIC FRONTAL
PASSAGES CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO BE ON A BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER
RIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOLLOWING EACH FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND THEN QUCIKLY WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL IN ADVANCE OF
THE SUCCEEDING FRONT. THE FREQUENT FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL PRECLUDE
ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN SO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
INTO...AND POSSIBLY THROUGH...THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KTSA 211128
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
528 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -RA/-TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT ALL SITES
FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. AN APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD LIGHT RAIN FORM SE-NW TODAY. LOWER COVERAGE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL ONCE AGAIN EXPAND AFTER
00Z-02Z WITH PREVAILING CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDINESS HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL
REMAIN FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AS MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INCREASES. WE ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SEE SHOWERS
DEVELOP AT THIS TIME AND THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO GROW UPSCALE
SOMEWHAT AS SUNRISE APPROACHES.

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR EL PASO BY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE TURNING EAST
AND NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX. THIS WILL KEEP THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING MAINLY FOCUSED NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER WITH MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

SOME DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUNSHINE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACCOMPANIED BY A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODIC FRONTAL
PASSAGES CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO BE ON A BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER
RIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOLLOWING EACH FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND THEN QUCIKLY WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL IN ADVANCE OF
THE SUCCEEDING FRONT. THE FREQUENT FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL PRECLUDE
ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN SO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
INTO...AND POSSIBLY THROUGH...THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KOUN 211002
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RETURN NORTHWARD THIS MORNING WITH LOW
ALREADY COVERING CENTRAL AND SRN AREAS AND SPREADING INTO THE
WEST. PATCHY FOG ALSO DEVELOPING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES...ESP NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM SW INTO
NCNTRL OK. CONTINUED ISENT LIFT THROUGH THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. UPPER
LOW OVER SRN CA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD INTO NRN
MEXICO OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING FAR SW TX BY SAT MORNING. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH. A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SW PARTS OF THE FA AIDED BY STOUT LOW LEVEL JET. UPPER
SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS ON SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH.
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
INTO SCNTRL/SE OK AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS FROM SW TX TOWARD THE
ARKLATEX BY SUNDAY MORNING. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER S/W TROUGH DROPS QUICKLY SEWD FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP EXPECTED AND PERIODIC WEAK COLD
FRONTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  61  52  62  51 /  30  60  80  40
HOBART OK         56  46  62  47 /  10  50  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  64  55  64  48 /  10  80  90  30
GAGE OK           52  38  62  40 /  10  10  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     54  47  62  51 /  50  50  60  40
DURANT OK         64  55  62  52 /  30  70 100  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/02




000
FXUS64 KOUN 211002
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RETURN NORTHWARD THIS MORNING WITH LOW
ALREADY COVERING CENTRAL AND SRN AREAS AND SPREADING INTO THE
WEST. PATCHY FOG ALSO DEVELOPING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES...ESP NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM SW INTO
NCNTRL OK. CONTINUED ISENT LIFT THROUGH THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. UPPER
LOW OVER SRN CA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD INTO NRN
MEXICO OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING FAR SW TX BY SAT MORNING. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH. A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SW PARTS OF THE FA AIDED BY STOUT LOW LEVEL JET. UPPER
SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS ON SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH.
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
INTO SCNTRL/SE OK AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS FROM SW TX TOWARD THE
ARKLATEX BY SUNDAY MORNING. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER S/W TROUGH DROPS QUICKLY SEWD FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP EXPECTED AND PERIODIC WEAK COLD
FRONTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  61  52  62  51 /  30  60  80  40
HOBART OK         56  46  62  47 /  10  50  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  64  55  64  48 /  10  80  90  30
GAGE OK           52  38  62  40 /  10  10  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     54  47  62  51 /  50  50  60  40
DURANT OK         64  55  62  52 /  30  70 100  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/02



000
FXUS64 KTSA 210957
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
357 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDINESS HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL
REMAIN FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AS MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INCREASES. WE ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SEE SHOWERS
DEVELOP AT THIS TIME AND THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO GROW UPSCALE
SOMEWHAT AS SUNRISE APPROACHES.

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR EL PASO BY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE TURNING EAST
AND NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX. THIS WILL KEEP THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING MAINLY FOCUSED NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER WITH MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

SOME DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUNSHINE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACCOMPANIED BY A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODIC FRONTAL
PASSAGES CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO BE ON A BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER
RIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOLLOWING EACH FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND THEN QUCIKLY WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL IN ADVANCE OF
THE SUCCEEDING FRONT. THE FREQUENT FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL PRECLUDE
ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN SO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
INTO...AND POSSIBLY THROUGH...THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  54  62  54 /  50  50  70  50
FSM   55  50  62  53 /  50  50  60  70
MLC   61  56  61  54 /  40  60  70  70
BVO   55  51  62  53 /  60  50  60  50
FYV   54  50  59  53 /  50  50  60  70
BYV   50  47  60  52 /  40  40  50  70
MKO   56  52  61  54 /  40  60  80  60
MIO   55  51  61  53 /  40  40  60  60
F10   59  55  61  54 /  40  60  80  60
HHW   62  54  63  55 /  60  70  70  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....05

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KTSA 210957
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
357 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDINESS HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL
REMAIN FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AS MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INCREASES. WE ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SEE SHOWERS
DEVELOP AT THIS TIME AND THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO GROW UPSCALE
SOMEWHAT AS SUNRISE APPROACHES.

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR EL PASO BY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE TURNING EAST
AND NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX. THIS WILL KEEP THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING MAINLY FOCUSED NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER WITH MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

SOME DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUNSHINE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACCOMPANIED BY A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODIC FRONTAL
PASSAGES CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO BE ON A BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER
RIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOLLOWING EACH FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND THEN QUCIKLY WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL IN ADVANCE OF
THE SUCCEEDING FRONT. THE FREQUENT FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL PRECLUDE
ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN SO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
INTO...AND POSSIBLY THROUGH...THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  54  62  54 /  50  50  70  50
FSM   55  50  62  53 /  50  50  60  70
MLC   61  56  61  54 /  40  60  70  70
BVO   55  51  62  53 /  60  50  60  50
FYV   54  50  59  53 /  50  50  60  70
BYV   50  47  60  52 /  40  40  50  70
MKO   56  52  61  54 /  40  60  80  60
MIO   55  51  61  53 /  40  40  60  60
F10   59  55  61  54 /  40  60  80  60
HHW   62  54  63  55 /  60  70  70  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....05

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KTSA 210957
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
357 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDINESS HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL
REMAIN FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AS MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INCREASES. WE ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SEE SHOWERS
DEVELOP AT THIS TIME AND THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO GROW UPSCALE
SOMEWHAT AS SUNRISE APPROACHES.

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR EL PASO BY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE TURNING EAST
AND NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX. THIS WILL KEEP THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING MAINLY FOCUSED NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER WITH MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

SOME DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUNSHINE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACCOMPANIED BY A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODIC FRONTAL
PASSAGES CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO BE ON A BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER
RIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOLLOWING EACH FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND THEN QUCIKLY WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL IN ADVANCE OF
THE SUCCEEDING FRONT. THE FREQUENT FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL PRECLUDE
ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN SO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
INTO...AND POSSIBLY THROUGH...THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  54  62  54 /  50  50  70  50
FSM   55  50  62  53 /  50  50  60  70
MLC   61  56  61  54 /  40  60  70  70
BVO   55  51  62  53 /  60  50  60  50
FYV   54  50  59  53 /  50  50  60  70
BYV   50  47  60  52 /  40  40  50  70
MKO   56  52  61  54 /  40  60  80  60
MIO   55  51  61  53 /  40  40  60  60
F10   59  55  61  54 /  40  60  80  60
HHW   62  54  63  55 /  60  70  70  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....05

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KTSA 210957
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
357 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDINESS HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL
REMAIN FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AS MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INCREASES. WE ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SEE SHOWERS
DEVELOP AT THIS TIME AND THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO GROW UPSCALE
SOMEWHAT AS SUNRISE APPROACHES.

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR EL PASO BY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE TURNING EAST
AND NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX. THIS WILL KEEP THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING MAINLY FOCUSED NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER WITH MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

SOME DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUNSHINE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACCOMPANIED BY A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODIC FRONTAL
PASSAGES CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO BE ON A BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER
RIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOLLOWING EACH FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND THEN QUCIKLY WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL IN ADVANCE OF
THE SUCCEEDING FRONT. THE FREQUENT FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL PRECLUDE
ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN SO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
INTO...AND POSSIBLY THROUGH...THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  54  62  54 /  50  50  70  50
FSM   55  50  62  53 /  50  50  60  70
MLC   61  56  61  54 /  40  60  70  70
BVO   55  51  62  53 /  60  50  60  50
FYV   54  50  59  53 /  50  50  60  70
BYV   50  47  60  52 /  40  40  50  70
MKO   56  52  61  54 /  40  60  80  60
MIO   55  51  61  53 /  40  40  60  60
F10   59  55  61  54 /  40  60  80  60
HHW   62  54  63  55 /  60  70  70  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....05

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KTSA 210526
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1126 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
LOWER CEILINGS BEGINNING TO EXPAND ACROSS WESTERN AR / SE OK AND
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT W/ SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN ALSO
DEVELOPING. WIDESPREAD MVFR TO PERIODIC IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MID MORNING FOR ALL SITES. FLIGHT IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING W/ CEILINGS AGAIN LIKELY TO LOWER AS NEXT
ROUND OF LIFT OVERSPREADS THE REGION W/ AREAS OF LIGHT OR DRIZZLE
ALSO EXPANDING LATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 843 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA AT
THIS TIME. OUR EXPECTED LOW CLOUDS ARE JUST STARTING TO DEVELOP
IN FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AFTER EXAMINING THE LATEST AVAILABLE
SHORT-TERM MODEL DATA... HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
OVERNIGHT FORECAST. HAVE LESSENED CLOUD COVER AND LOWERED POPS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED... HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL
BE OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT WILL LOWER CEILINGS
INTO WIDESPREAD MVFR LEVELS...WITH LIGHT PRECIP AND AREAS OF IFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE. PRECIP RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE HEAVY HOWEVER DRIZZLE AND LOW CEILING MAY PERIODICALLY DROP
VISIBILITIES INTO MVFR LEVELS. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPACTED
BY THE LOWER CEILINGS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WARM FRONT IN THE PROCESS OF SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...WITH MOST OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA NOW IN THE MORE MOIST AIR SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHTS...LIKELY 15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
AND A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN THE PANHANDLE REGION
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...WILL ARRIVE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AHEAD OF AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE WEST COAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL LOOK TO BE QUITE UNSEASONABLY
HIGH...IN ROUGHLY THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WHICH ARE CLOSEST TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...WITH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FEATURING THE
HIGHEST TOTALS. WRAPAROUND ENERGY WILL EXTEND LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DUE TO A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER LEADING UP TO THANKSGIVING. QUESTIONS
AND UNCERTAINTIES ABOUND FROM THANKSGIVING DAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND THEREAFTER...WITH BOTH POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN
INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS AND ALSO LARGE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
MODELS THEMSELVES. THE ONLY HINT OF CONSISTENCY IS THAT THE GFS IS
STICKING TO AND ITS WARM/DRY SOLUTION...AS IS THE ECMWF AND ITS
SOLUTION OF COLD WITH WINTER PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF
DOES HAVE SOME SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN...SO FOR NOW...WILL TREND
TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND SHOW SOME SMALL WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL FOR THANKSGIVING NIGHT /THE FINAL PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST/. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED ENOUGH THAT THIS IS A VERY
UNCERTAIN FORECAST...BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL THERE...ANYONE WITH
TRAVEL PLANS DURING THIS TIME SHOULD MONITOR FORECASTS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS CHANGES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   35  56  52  62 /  10  40  60  80
FSM   42  56  49  63 /  20  50  60  70
MLC   49  61  56  62 /  20  40  70 100
BVO   33  55  48  61 /  10  40  50  80
FYV   32  53  49  59 /  10  50  50  70
BYV   33  51  47  59 /  10  50  40  70
MKO   39  57  51  61 /  20  40  60  80
MIO   32  54  50  60 /  10  50  50  70
F10   41  60  54  61 /  20  40  60  90
HHW   48  63  54  63 /  30  50  70 100

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 210526
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1126 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
LOWER CEILINGS BEGINNING TO EXPAND ACROSS WESTERN AR / SE OK AND
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT W/ SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN ALSO
DEVELOPING. WIDESPREAD MVFR TO PERIODIC IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MID MORNING FOR ALL SITES. FLIGHT IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING W/ CEILINGS AGAIN LIKELY TO LOWER AS NEXT
ROUND OF LIFT OVERSPREADS THE REGION W/ AREAS OF LIGHT OR DRIZZLE
ALSO EXPANDING LATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 843 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA AT
THIS TIME. OUR EXPECTED LOW CLOUDS ARE JUST STARTING TO DEVELOP
IN FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AFTER EXAMINING THE LATEST AVAILABLE
SHORT-TERM MODEL DATA... HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
OVERNIGHT FORECAST. HAVE LESSENED CLOUD COVER AND LOWERED POPS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED... HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL
BE OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT WILL LOWER CEILINGS
INTO WIDESPREAD MVFR LEVELS...WITH LIGHT PRECIP AND AREAS OF IFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE. PRECIP RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE HEAVY HOWEVER DRIZZLE AND LOW CEILING MAY PERIODICALLY DROP
VISIBILITIES INTO MVFR LEVELS. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPACTED
BY THE LOWER CEILINGS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WARM FRONT IN THE PROCESS OF SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...WITH MOST OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA NOW IN THE MORE MOIST AIR SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHTS...LIKELY 15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
AND A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN THE PANHANDLE REGION
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...WILL ARRIVE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AHEAD OF AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE WEST COAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL LOOK TO BE QUITE UNSEASONABLY
HIGH...IN ROUGHLY THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WHICH ARE CLOSEST TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...WITH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FEATURING THE
HIGHEST TOTALS. WRAPAROUND ENERGY WILL EXTEND LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DUE TO A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER LEADING UP TO THANKSGIVING. QUESTIONS
AND UNCERTAINTIES ABOUND FROM THANKSGIVING DAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND THEREAFTER...WITH BOTH POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN
INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS AND ALSO LARGE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
MODELS THEMSELVES. THE ONLY HINT OF CONSISTENCY IS THAT THE GFS IS
STICKING TO AND ITS WARM/DRY SOLUTION...AS IS THE ECMWF AND ITS
SOLUTION OF COLD WITH WINTER PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF
DOES HAVE SOME SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN...SO FOR NOW...WILL TREND
TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND SHOW SOME SMALL WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL FOR THANKSGIVING NIGHT /THE FINAL PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST/. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED ENOUGH THAT THIS IS A VERY
UNCERTAIN FORECAST...BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL THERE...ANYONE WITH
TRAVEL PLANS DURING THIS TIME SHOULD MONITOR FORECASTS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS CHANGES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   35  56  52  62 /  10  40  60  80
FSM   42  56  49  63 /  20  50  60  70
MLC   49  61  56  62 /  20  40  70 100
BVO   33  55  48  61 /  10  40  50  80
FYV   32  53  49  59 /  10  50  50  70
BYV   33  51  47  59 /  10  50  40  70
MKO   39  57  51  61 /  20  40  60  80
MIO   32  54  50  60 /  10  50  50  70
F10   41  60  54  61 /  20  40  60  90
HHW   48  63  54  63 /  30  50  70 100

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07





000
FXUS64 KTSA 210243
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
843 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA AT
THIS TIME. OUR EXPECTED LOW CLOUDS ARE JUST STARTING TO DEVELOP
IN FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AFTER EXAMINING THE LATEST AVAILABLE
SHORT-TERM MODEL DATA... HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
OVERNIGHT FORECAST. HAVE LESSENED CLOUD COVER AND LOWERED POPS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED... HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL
BE OUT SHORTLY.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT WILL LOWER CEILINGS
INTO WIDESPREAD MVFR LEVELS...WITH LIGHT PRECIP AND AREAS OF IFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE. PRECIP RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE HEAVY HOWEVER DRIZZLE AND LOW CEILING MAY PERIODICALLY DROP
VISIBILITIES INTO MVFR LEVELS. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPACTED
BY THE LOWER CEILINGS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WARM FRONT IN THE PROCESS OF SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...WITH MOST OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA NOW IN THE MORE MOIST AIR SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHTS...LIKELY 15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
AND A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN THE PANHANDLE REGION
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...WILL ARRIVE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AHEAD OF AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE WEST COAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL LOOK TO BE QUITE UNSEASONABLY
HIGH...IN ROUGHLY THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WHICH ARE CLOSEST TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...WITH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FEATURING THE
HIGHEST TOTALS. WRAPAROUND ENERGY WILL EXTEND LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DUE TO A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER LEADING UP TO THANKSGIVING. QUESTIONS
AND UNCERTAINTIES ABOUND FROM THANKSGIVING DAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND THEREAFTER...WITH BOTH POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN
INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS AND ALSO LARGE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
MODELS THEMSELVES. THE ONLY HINT OF CONSISTENCY IS THAT THE GFS IS
STICKING TO AND ITS WARM/DRY SOLUTION...AS IS THE ECMWF AND ITS
SOLUTION OF COLD WITH WINTER PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF
DOES HAVE SOME SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN...SO FOR NOW...WILL TREND
TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND SHOW SOME SMALL WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL FOR THANKSGIVING NIGHT /THE FINAL PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST/. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED ENOUGH THAT THIS IS A VERY
UNCERTAIN FORECAST...BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL THERE...ANYONE WITH
TRAVEL PLANS DURING THIS TIME SHOULD MONITOR FORECASTS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS CHANGES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....99





000
FXUS64 KTSA 210243
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
843 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA AT
THIS TIME. OUR EXPECTED LOW CLOUDS ARE JUST STARTING TO DEVELOP
IN FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AFTER EXAMINING THE LATEST AVAILABLE
SHORT-TERM MODEL DATA... HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
OVERNIGHT FORECAST. HAVE LESSENED CLOUD COVER AND LOWERED POPS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED... HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL
BE OUT SHORTLY.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT WILL LOWER CEILINGS
INTO WIDESPREAD MVFR LEVELS...WITH LIGHT PRECIP AND AREAS OF IFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE. PRECIP RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE HEAVY HOWEVER DRIZZLE AND LOW CEILING MAY PERIODICALLY DROP
VISIBILITIES INTO MVFR LEVELS. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPACTED
BY THE LOWER CEILINGS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WARM FRONT IN THE PROCESS OF SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...WITH MOST OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA NOW IN THE MORE MOIST AIR SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHTS...LIKELY 15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
AND A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN THE PANHANDLE REGION
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...WILL ARRIVE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AHEAD OF AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE WEST COAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL LOOK TO BE QUITE UNSEASONABLY
HIGH...IN ROUGHLY THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WHICH ARE CLOSEST TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...WITH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FEATURING THE
HIGHEST TOTALS. WRAPAROUND ENERGY WILL EXTEND LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DUE TO A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER LEADING UP TO THANKSGIVING. QUESTIONS
AND UNCERTAINTIES ABOUND FROM THANKSGIVING DAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND THEREAFTER...WITH BOTH POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN
INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS AND ALSO LARGE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
MODELS THEMSELVES. THE ONLY HINT OF CONSISTENCY IS THAT THE GFS IS
STICKING TO AND ITS WARM/DRY SOLUTION...AS IS THE ECMWF AND ITS
SOLUTION OF COLD WITH WINTER PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF
DOES HAVE SOME SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN...SO FOR NOW...WILL TREND
TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND SHOW SOME SMALL WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL FOR THANKSGIVING NIGHT /THE FINAL PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST/. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED ENOUGH THAT THIS IS A VERY
UNCERTAIN FORECAST...BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL THERE...ANYONE WITH
TRAVEL PLANS DURING THIS TIME SHOULD MONITOR FORECASTS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS CHANGES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....99





000
FXUS64 KTSA 210243
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
843 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA AT
THIS TIME. OUR EXPECTED LOW CLOUDS ARE JUST STARTING TO DEVELOP
IN FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AFTER EXAMINING THE LATEST AVAILABLE
SHORT-TERM MODEL DATA... HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
OVERNIGHT FORECAST. HAVE LESSENED CLOUD COVER AND LOWERED POPS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED... HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL
BE OUT SHORTLY.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT WILL LOWER CEILINGS
INTO WIDESPREAD MVFR LEVELS...WITH LIGHT PRECIP AND AREAS OF IFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE. PRECIP RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE HEAVY HOWEVER DRIZZLE AND LOW CEILING MAY PERIODICALLY DROP
VISIBILITIES INTO MVFR LEVELS. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPACTED
BY THE LOWER CEILINGS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WARM FRONT IN THE PROCESS OF SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...WITH MOST OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA NOW IN THE MORE MOIST AIR SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHTS...LIKELY 15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
AND A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN THE PANHANDLE REGION
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...WILL ARRIVE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AHEAD OF AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE WEST COAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL LOOK TO BE QUITE UNSEASONABLY
HIGH...IN ROUGHLY THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WHICH ARE CLOSEST TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...WITH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FEATURING THE
HIGHEST TOTALS. WRAPAROUND ENERGY WILL EXTEND LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DUE TO A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER LEADING UP TO THANKSGIVING. QUESTIONS
AND UNCERTAINTIES ABOUND FROM THANKSGIVING DAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND THEREAFTER...WITH BOTH POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN
INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS AND ALSO LARGE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
MODELS THEMSELVES. THE ONLY HINT OF CONSISTENCY IS THAT THE GFS IS
STICKING TO AND ITS WARM/DRY SOLUTION...AS IS THE ECMWF AND ITS
SOLUTION OF COLD WITH WINTER PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF
DOES HAVE SOME SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN...SO FOR NOW...WILL TREND
TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND SHOW SOME SMALL WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL FOR THANKSGIVING NIGHT /THE FINAL PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST/. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED ENOUGH THAT THIS IS A VERY
UNCERTAIN FORECAST...BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL THERE...ANYONE WITH
TRAVEL PLANS DURING THIS TIME SHOULD MONITOR FORECASTS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS CHANGES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....99





000
FXUS64 KTSA 210243
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
843 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA AT
THIS TIME. OUR EXPECTED LOW CLOUDS ARE JUST STARTING TO DEVELOP
IN FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AFTER EXAMINING THE LATEST AVAILABLE
SHORT-TERM MODEL DATA... HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
OVERNIGHT FORECAST. HAVE LESSENED CLOUD COVER AND LOWERED POPS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED... HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL
BE OUT SHORTLY.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT WILL LOWER CEILINGS
INTO WIDESPREAD MVFR LEVELS...WITH LIGHT PRECIP AND AREAS OF IFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE. PRECIP RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE HEAVY HOWEVER DRIZZLE AND LOW CEILING MAY PERIODICALLY DROP
VISIBILITIES INTO MVFR LEVELS. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPACTED
BY THE LOWER CEILINGS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WARM FRONT IN THE PROCESS OF SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...WITH MOST OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA NOW IN THE MORE MOIST AIR SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHTS...LIKELY 15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
AND A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN THE PANHANDLE REGION
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...WILL ARRIVE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AHEAD OF AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE WEST COAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL LOOK TO BE QUITE UNSEASONABLY
HIGH...IN ROUGHLY THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WHICH ARE CLOSEST TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...WITH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FEATURING THE
HIGHEST TOTALS. WRAPAROUND ENERGY WILL EXTEND LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DUE TO A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER LEADING UP TO THANKSGIVING. QUESTIONS
AND UNCERTAINTIES ABOUND FROM THANKSGIVING DAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND THEREAFTER...WITH BOTH POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN
INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS AND ALSO LARGE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
MODELS THEMSELVES. THE ONLY HINT OF CONSISTENCY IS THAT THE GFS IS
STICKING TO AND ITS WARM/DRY SOLUTION...AS IS THE ECMWF AND ITS
SOLUTION OF COLD WITH WINTER PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF
DOES HAVE SOME SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN...SO FOR NOW...WILL TREND
TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND SHOW SOME SMALL WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL FOR THANKSGIVING NIGHT /THE FINAL PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST/. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED ENOUGH THAT THIS IS A VERY
UNCERTAIN FORECAST...BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL THERE...ANYONE WITH
TRAVEL PLANS DURING THIS TIME SHOULD MONITOR FORECASTS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS CHANGES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....99





000
FXUS64 KOUN 202351
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
555 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION... MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY AROUND
06Z WITH POSSIBLE IFR/LIFR BY MORNING. WILL INCLUDE AT LEAST A
MENTION OF DRIZZLE NEAR I-35 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE WILL KEEP LOWER MVFR CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON FRIDAY. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

FOR TONIGHT... ADJUSTED PRECIP/WX AS SFC ANALYSIS HAS CONTINUED TO
SHOW A SLOW EVOLUTION OF THE SFC LOW OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. IN
RESPONSE... LOW/MID 40S DEWPOINTS ARE SLOWLY STARTING TO PUSH INTO
SRN OK WITH THE LIFTING OF A WEAK WARM FRONT INTO OK. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AND LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHY FOG
CHANCES WILL INCREASE... ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. EARLY FRIDAY MORNING... TEMPS WILL FLIRT NEAR
FREEZING OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW ACROSS FAR NWRN OK... WITH A NARROW
WINDOW AROUND DAWN OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG/DRIZZLE. ANY IMPACTS
SHOULD BE MINOR.

FRIDAY... SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...
PRIMARILY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE NEXT IN BOUND H500 LOW... WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID 50S IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE
RED RIVER BY THE MID AFTERNOON. INTO THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS... A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS WRN N TX LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT... ALONG A NARROW
RIBBON OF MODEST INSTABILITY... SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW. INTO SAT...
THE CURRENT RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM HAVE THE H500 SHORTWAVE
DIGGING FARTHER INTO NWRN MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE... THIS
HAS SHIFTED THE PRIMARY AXIS OF RAIN/THUNDER ON SATURDAY A TOUCH TO
THE EAST WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. ADJUSTED
PRECIP TOTALS ACCORDINGLY... WITH STORM TOTALS BETWEEN 1.50 TO 2.00
INCHES ACROSS TEXOMA. DEPENDING ON HOW RAIN BANDS SET UP... LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS... UP TO 2.50IN... ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
HYDROLOGICALLY... THE LONG DURATION OF THE EVENT SHOULD LIMIT HYDRO
ISSUES TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW AREAS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AND EXIT EASTWARD EARLY SUNDAY.

DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL SLOWLY RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...
CONTINUING TOWARDS THANKSGIVING. TALK WITHIN THE WEATHER COMMUNITY
HAS RECENTLY POINTED TOWARD POTENTIAL WINTER PRECIP AT THE END OF
NEXT WEEK... POSSIBLY THANKSGIVING INTO FRIDAY (11/28). THE CURRENT
AND PREVIOUS ECMWF REMAINS WELL OUT OF PHASE WHEN COMPARED TO THE
CURRENT GFS AND EXPERIMENTAL 13KM GFS. GIVEN THIS EXTREME
VARIABILITY... IT REMAINS IMPOSSIBLE TO LOCK DOWN ON ANY SOLUTION.
THIS IS DEFINITELY A WAIT AND SEE MOMENT. PEOPLE SHOULD ALWAYS BE
PREPARED FOR WINTER WEATHER DURING THE WINTER SEASON... AND THEY
SHOULD ALWAYS EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN DEALING WITH LONG RANGE
FORECASTS. AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND... THE PICTURE WILL BECOME
MUCH CLEARER.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  43  60  49  62 /  30  30  60  80
HOBART OK         39  55  45  61 /  10  20  50  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  46  63  53  64 /  10  10  80  90
GAGE OK           30  51  37  62 /  10  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     37  54  45  62 /  30  40  50  70
DURANT OK         51  64  56  63 /  40  40  70 100

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 202351
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
555 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION... MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY AROUND
06Z WITH POSSIBLE IFR/LIFR BY MORNING. WILL INCLUDE AT LEAST A
MENTION OF DRIZZLE NEAR I-35 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE WILL KEEP LOWER MVFR CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON FRIDAY. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

FOR TONIGHT... ADJUSTED PRECIP/WX AS SFC ANALYSIS HAS CONTINUED TO
SHOW A SLOW EVOLUTION OF THE SFC LOW OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. IN
RESPONSE... LOW/MID 40S DEWPOINTS ARE SLOWLY STARTING TO PUSH INTO
SRN OK WITH THE LIFTING OF A WEAK WARM FRONT INTO OK. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AND LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHY FOG
CHANCES WILL INCREASE... ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. EARLY FRIDAY MORNING... TEMPS WILL FLIRT NEAR
FREEZING OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW ACROSS FAR NWRN OK... WITH A NARROW
WINDOW AROUND DAWN OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG/DRIZZLE. ANY IMPACTS
SHOULD BE MINOR.

FRIDAY... SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...
PRIMARILY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE NEXT IN BOUND H500 LOW... WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID 50S IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE
RED RIVER BY THE MID AFTERNOON. INTO THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS... A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS WRN N TX LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT... ALONG A NARROW
RIBBON OF MODEST INSTABILITY... SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW. INTO SAT...
THE CURRENT RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM HAVE THE H500 SHORTWAVE
DIGGING FARTHER INTO NWRN MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE... THIS
HAS SHIFTED THE PRIMARY AXIS OF RAIN/THUNDER ON SATURDAY A TOUCH TO
THE EAST WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. ADJUSTED
PRECIP TOTALS ACCORDINGLY... WITH STORM TOTALS BETWEEN 1.50 TO 2.00
INCHES ACROSS TEXOMA. DEPENDING ON HOW RAIN BANDS SET UP... LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS... UP TO 2.50IN... ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
HYDROLOGICALLY... THE LONG DURATION OF THE EVENT SHOULD LIMIT HYDRO
ISSUES TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW AREAS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AND EXIT EASTWARD EARLY SUNDAY.

DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL SLOWLY RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...
CONTINUING TOWARDS THANKSGIVING. TALK WITHIN THE WEATHER COMMUNITY
HAS RECENTLY POINTED TOWARD POTENTIAL WINTER PRECIP AT THE END OF
NEXT WEEK... POSSIBLY THANKSGIVING INTO FRIDAY (11/28). THE CURRENT
AND PREVIOUS ECMWF REMAINS WELL OUT OF PHASE WHEN COMPARED TO THE
CURRENT GFS AND EXPERIMENTAL 13KM GFS. GIVEN THIS EXTREME
VARIABILITY... IT REMAINS IMPOSSIBLE TO LOCK DOWN ON ANY SOLUTION.
THIS IS DEFINITELY A WAIT AND SEE MOMENT. PEOPLE SHOULD ALWAYS BE
PREPARED FOR WINTER WEATHER DURING THE WINTER SEASON... AND THEY
SHOULD ALWAYS EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN DEALING WITH LONG RANGE
FORECASTS. AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND... THE PICTURE WILL BECOME
MUCH CLEARER.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  43  60  49  62 /  30  30  60  80
HOBART OK         39  55  45  61 /  10  20  50  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  46  63  53  64 /  10  10  80  90
GAGE OK           30  51  37  62 /  10  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     37  54  45  62 /  30  40  50  70
DURANT OK         51  64  56  63 /  40  40  70 100

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 202351
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
555 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION... MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY AROUND
06Z WITH POSSIBLE IFR/LIFR BY MORNING. WILL INCLUDE AT LEAST A
MENTION OF DRIZZLE NEAR I-35 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE WILL KEEP LOWER MVFR CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON FRIDAY. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

FOR TONIGHT... ADJUSTED PRECIP/WX AS SFC ANALYSIS HAS CONTINUED TO
SHOW A SLOW EVOLUTION OF THE SFC LOW OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. IN
RESPONSE... LOW/MID 40S DEWPOINTS ARE SLOWLY STARTING TO PUSH INTO
SRN OK WITH THE LIFTING OF A WEAK WARM FRONT INTO OK. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AND LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHY FOG
CHANCES WILL INCREASE... ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. EARLY FRIDAY MORNING... TEMPS WILL FLIRT NEAR
FREEZING OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW ACROSS FAR NWRN OK... WITH A NARROW
WINDOW AROUND DAWN OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG/DRIZZLE. ANY IMPACTS
SHOULD BE MINOR.

FRIDAY... SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...
PRIMARILY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE NEXT IN BOUND H500 LOW... WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID 50S IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE
RED RIVER BY THE MID AFTERNOON. INTO THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS... A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS WRN N TX LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT... ALONG A NARROW
RIBBON OF MODEST INSTABILITY... SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW. INTO SAT...
THE CURRENT RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM HAVE THE H500 SHORTWAVE
DIGGING FARTHER INTO NWRN MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE... THIS
HAS SHIFTED THE PRIMARY AXIS OF RAIN/THUNDER ON SATURDAY A TOUCH TO
THE EAST WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. ADJUSTED
PRECIP TOTALS ACCORDINGLY... WITH STORM TOTALS BETWEEN 1.50 TO 2.00
INCHES ACROSS TEXOMA. DEPENDING ON HOW RAIN BANDS SET UP... LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS... UP TO 2.50IN... ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
HYDROLOGICALLY... THE LONG DURATION OF THE EVENT SHOULD LIMIT HYDRO
ISSUES TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW AREAS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AND EXIT EASTWARD EARLY SUNDAY.

DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL SLOWLY RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...
CONTINUING TOWARDS THANKSGIVING. TALK WITHIN THE WEATHER COMMUNITY
HAS RECENTLY POINTED TOWARD POTENTIAL WINTER PRECIP AT THE END OF
NEXT WEEK... POSSIBLY THANKSGIVING INTO FRIDAY (11/28). THE CURRENT
AND PREVIOUS ECMWF REMAINS WELL OUT OF PHASE WHEN COMPARED TO THE
CURRENT GFS AND EXPERIMENTAL 13KM GFS. GIVEN THIS EXTREME
VARIABILITY... IT REMAINS IMPOSSIBLE TO LOCK DOWN ON ANY SOLUTION.
THIS IS DEFINITELY A WAIT AND SEE MOMENT. PEOPLE SHOULD ALWAYS BE
PREPARED FOR WINTER WEATHER DURING THE WINTER SEASON... AND THEY
SHOULD ALWAYS EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN DEALING WITH LONG RANGE
FORECASTS. AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND... THE PICTURE WILL BECOME
MUCH CLEARER.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  43  60  49  62 /  30  30  60  80
HOBART OK         39  55  45  61 /  10  20  50  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  46  63  53  64 /  10  10  80  90
GAGE OK           30  51  37  62 /  10  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     37  54  45  62 /  30  40  50  70
DURANT OK         51  64  56  63 /  40  40  70 100

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 202351
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
555 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION... MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY AROUND
06Z WITH POSSIBLE IFR/LIFR BY MORNING. WILL INCLUDE AT LEAST A
MENTION OF DRIZZLE NEAR I-35 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE WILL KEEP LOWER MVFR CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON FRIDAY. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

FOR TONIGHT... ADJUSTED PRECIP/WX AS SFC ANALYSIS HAS CONTINUED TO
SHOW A SLOW EVOLUTION OF THE SFC LOW OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. IN
RESPONSE... LOW/MID 40S DEWPOINTS ARE SLOWLY STARTING TO PUSH INTO
SRN OK WITH THE LIFTING OF A WEAK WARM FRONT INTO OK. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AND LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHY FOG
CHANCES WILL INCREASE... ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. EARLY FRIDAY MORNING... TEMPS WILL FLIRT NEAR
FREEZING OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW ACROSS FAR NWRN OK... WITH A NARROW
WINDOW AROUND DAWN OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG/DRIZZLE. ANY IMPACTS
SHOULD BE MINOR.

FRIDAY... SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...
PRIMARILY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE NEXT IN BOUND H500 LOW... WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID 50S IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE
RED RIVER BY THE MID AFTERNOON. INTO THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS... A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS WRN N TX LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT... ALONG A NARROW
RIBBON OF MODEST INSTABILITY... SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW. INTO SAT...
THE CURRENT RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM HAVE THE H500 SHORTWAVE
DIGGING FARTHER INTO NWRN MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE... THIS
HAS SHIFTED THE PRIMARY AXIS OF RAIN/THUNDER ON SATURDAY A TOUCH TO
THE EAST WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. ADJUSTED
PRECIP TOTALS ACCORDINGLY... WITH STORM TOTALS BETWEEN 1.50 TO 2.00
INCHES ACROSS TEXOMA. DEPENDING ON HOW RAIN BANDS SET UP... LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS... UP TO 2.50IN... ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
HYDROLOGICALLY... THE LONG DURATION OF THE EVENT SHOULD LIMIT HYDRO
ISSUES TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW AREAS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AND EXIT EASTWARD EARLY SUNDAY.

DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL SLOWLY RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...
CONTINUING TOWARDS THANKSGIVING. TALK WITHIN THE WEATHER COMMUNITY
HAS RECENTLY POINTED TOWARD POTENTIAL WINTER PRECIP AT THE END OF
NEXT WEEK... POSSIBLY THANKSGIVING INTO FRIDAY (11/28). THE CURRENT
AND PREVIOUS ECMWF REMAINS WELL OUT OF PHASE WHEN COMPARED TO THE
CURRENT GFS AND EXPERIMENTAL 13KM GFS. GIVEN THIS EXTREME
VARIABILITY... IT REMAINS IMPOSSIBLE TO LOCK DOWN ON ANY SOLUTION.
THIS IS DEFINITELY A WAIT AND SEE MOMENT. PEOPLE SHOULD ALWAYS BE
PREPARED FOR WINTER WEATHER DURING THE WINTER SEASON... AND THEY
SHOULD ALWAYS EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN DEALING WITH LONG RANGE
FORECASTS. AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND... THE PICTURE WILL BECOME
MUCH CLEARER.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  43  60  49  62 /  30  30  60  80
HOBART OK         39  55  45  61 /  10  20  50  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  46  63  53  64 /  10  10  80  90
GAGE OK           30  51  37  62 /  10  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     37  54  45  62 /  30  40  50  70
DURANT OK         51  64  56  63 /  40  40  70 100

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 202331
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
531 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT WILL LOWER CEILINGS
INTO WIDESPREAD MVFR LEVELS...WITH LIGHT PRECIP AND AREAS OF IFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE. PRECIP RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE HEAVY HOWEVER DRIZZLE AND LOW CEILING MAY PERIODICALLY DROP
VISIBILITIES INTO MVFR LEVELS. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPACTED
BY THE LOWER CEILINGS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WARM FRONT IN THE PROCESS OF SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...WITH MOST OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA NOW IN THE MORE MOIST AIR SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHTS...LIKELY 15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
AND A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN THE PANHANDLE REGION
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...WILL ARRIVE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AHEAD OF AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE WEST COAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL LOOK TO BE QUITE UNSEASONABLY
HIGH...IN ROUGHLY THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WHICH ARE CLOSEST TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...WITH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FEATURING THE
HIGHEST TOTALS. WRAPAROUND ENERGY WILL EXTEND LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DUE TO A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER LEADING UP TO THANKSGIVING. QUESTIONS
AND UNCERTAINTIES ABOUND FROM THANKSGIVING DAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND THEREAFTER...WITH BOTH POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN
INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS AND ALSO LARGE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
MODELS THEMSELVES. THE ONLY HINT OF CONSISTENCY IS THAT THE GFS IS
STICKING TO AND ITS WARM/DRY SOLUTION...AS IS THE ECMWF AND ITS
SOLUTION OF COLD WITH WINTER PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF
DOES HAVE SOME SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN...SO FOR NOW...WILL TREND
TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND SHOW SOME SMALL WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL FOR THANKSGIVING NIGHT /THE FINAL PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST/. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED ENOUGH THAT THIS IS A VERY
UNCERTAIN FORECAST...BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL THERE...ANYONE WITH
TRAVEL PLANS DURING THIS TIME SHOULD MONITOR FORECASTS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS CHANGES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   42  56  52  62 /  30  40  60  80
FSM   44  56  49  63 /  40  50  60  70
MLC   50  61  56  62 /  40  40  70 100
BVO   37  55  48  61 /  30  40  50  80
FYV   39  53  49  59 /  30  50  50  70
BYV   36  51  47  59 /  20  50  40  70
MKO   43  57  51  61 /  30  40  60  80
MIO   36  54  50  60 /  20  50  50  70
F10   46  60  54  61 /  40  40  60  90
HHW   52  63  54  63 /  50  50  70 100

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07





000
FXUS64 KTSA 202331
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
531 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT WILL LOWER CEILINGS
INTO WIDESPREAD MVFR LEVELS...WITH LIGHT PRECIP AND AREAS OF IFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE. PRECIP RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE HEAVY HOWEVER DRIZZLE AND LOW CEILING MAY PERIODICALLY DROP
VISIBILITIES INTO MVFR LEVELS. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPACTED
BY THE LOWER CEILINGS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WARM FRONT IN THE PROCESS OF SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...WITH MOST OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA NOW IN THE MORE MOIST AIR SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHTS...LIKELY 15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
AND A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN THE PANHANDLE REGION
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...WILL ARRIVE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AHEAD OF AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE WEST COAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL LOOK TO BE QUITE UNSEASONABLY
HIGH...IN ROUGHLY THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WHICH ARE CLOSEST TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...WITH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FEATURING THE
HIGHEST TOTALS. WRAPAROUND ENERGY WILL EXTEND LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DUE TO A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER LEADING UP TO THANKSGIVING. QUESTIONS
AND UNCERTAINTIES ABOUND FROM THANKSGIVING DAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND THEREAFTER...WITH BOTH POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN
INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS AND ALSO LARGE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
MODELS THEMSELVES. THE ONLY HINT OF CONSISTENCY IS THAT THE GFS IS
STICKING TO AND ITS WARM/DRY SOLUTION...AS IS THE ECMWF AND ITS
SOLUTION OF COLD WITH WINTER PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF
DOES HAVE SOME SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN...SO FOR NOW...WILL TREND
TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND SHOW SOME SMALL WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL FOR THANKSGIVING NIGHT /THE FINAL PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST/. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED ENOUGH THAT THIS IS A VERY
UNCERTAIN FORECAST...BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL THERE...ANYONE WITH
TRAVEL PLANS DURING THIS TIME SHOULD MONITOR FORECASTS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS CHANGES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   42  56  52  62 /  30  40  60  80
FSM   44  56  49  63 /  40  50  60  70
MLC   50  61  56  62 /  40  40  70 100
BVO   37  55  48  61 /  30  40  50  80
FYV   39  53  49  59 /  30  50  50  70
BYV   36  51  47  59 /  20  50  40  70
MKO   43  57  51  61 /  30  40  60  80
MIO   36  54  50  60 /  20  50  50  70
F10   46  60  54  61 /  40  40  60  90
HHW   52  63  54  63 /  50  50  70 100

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07






000
FXUS64 KOUN 202154
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
354 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

FOR TONIGHT... ADJUSTED PRECIP/WX AS SFC ANALYSIS HAS CONTINUED TO
SHOW A SLOW EVOLUTION OF THE SFC LOW OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. IN
RESPONSE... LOW/MID 40S DEWPOINTS ARE SLOWLY STARTING TO PUSH INTO
SRN OK WITH THE LIFTING OF A WEAK WARM FRONT INTO OK. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AND LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHY FOG
CHANCES WILL INCREASE... ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. EARLY FRIDAY MORNING... TEMPS WILL FLIRT NEAR
FREEZING OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW ACROSS FAR NWRN OK... WITH A NARROW
WINDOW AROUND DAWN OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG/DRIZZLE. ANY IMPACTS
SHOULD BE MINOR.

FRIDAY... SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...
PRIMARILY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE NEXT IN BOUND H500 LOW... WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID 50S IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE
RED RIVER BY THE MID AFTERNOON. INTO THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS... A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS WRN N TX LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT... ALONG A NARROW
RIBBON OF MODEST INSTABILITY... SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW. INTO SAT...
THE CURRENT RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM HAVE THE H500 SHORTWAVE
DIGGING FARTHER INTO NWRN MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE... THIS
HAS SHIFTED THE PRIMARY AXIS OF RAIN/THUNDER ON SATURDAY A TOUCH TO
THE EAST WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. ADJUSTED
PRECIP TOTALS ACCORDINGLY... WITH STORM TOTALS BETWEEN 1.50 TO 2.00
INCHES ACROSS TEXOMA. DEPENDING ON HOW RAIN BANDS SET UP... LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS... UP TO 2.50IN... ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
HYDROLOGICALLY... THE LONG DURATION OF THE EVENT SHOULD LIMIT HYDRO
ISSUES TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW AREAS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AND EXIT EASTWARD EARLY SUNDAY.

DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL SLOWLY RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...
CONTINUING TOWARDS THANKSGIVING. TALK WITHIN THE WEATHER COMMUNITY
HAS RECENTLY POINTED TOWARD POTENTIAL WINTER PRECIP AT THE END OF
NEXT WEEK... POSSIBLY THANKSGIVING INTO FRIDAY (11/28). THE CURRENT
AND PREVIOUS ECMWF REMAINS WELL OUT OF PHASE WHEN COMPARED TO THE
CURRENT GFS AND EXPERIMENTAL 13KM GFS. GIVEN THIS EXTREME
VARIABILITY... IT REMAINS IMPOSSIBLE TO LOCK DOWN ON ANY SOLUTION.
THIS IS DEFINITELY A WAIT AND SEE MOMENT. PEOPLE SHOULD ALWAYS BE
PREPARED FOR WINTER WEATHER DURING THE WINTER SEASON... AND THEY
SHOULD ALWAYS EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN DEALING WITH LONG RANGE
FORECASTS. AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND... THE PICTURE WILL BECOME
MUCH CLEARER.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  43  60  49  62 /  30  30  60  80
HOBART OK         39  55  45  61 /  10  20  50  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  46  63  53  64 /  10  10  80  90
GAGE OK           30  51  37  62 /  10  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     37  54  45  62 /  30  40  50  70
DURANT OK         51  64  56  63 /  40  40  70 100

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KTSA 202048
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
248 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WARM FRONT IN THE PROCESS OF SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...WITH MOST OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA NOW IN THE MORE MOIST AIR SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHTS...LIKELY 15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
AND A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN THE PANHANDLE REGION
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...WILL ARRIVE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AHEAD OF AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE WEST COAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL LOOK TO BE QUITE UNSEASONABLY
HIGH...IN ROUGHLY THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WHICH ARE CLOSEST TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...WITH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FEATURING THE
HIGHEST TOTALS. WRAPAROUND ENERGY WILL EXTEND LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DUE TO A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER LEADING UP TO THANKSGIVING. QUESTIONS
AND UNCERTAINTIES ABOUND FROM THANKSGIVING DAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND THEREAFTER...WITH BOTH POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN
INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS AND ALSO LARGE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
MODELS THEMSELVES. THE ONLY HINT OF CONSISTENCY IS THAT THE GFS IS
STICKING TO AND ITS WARM/DRY SOLUTION...AS IS THE ECMWF AND ITS
SOLUTION OF COLD WITH WINTER PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF
DOES HAVE SOME SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN...SO FOR NOW...WILL TREND
TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND SHOW SOME SMALL WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL FOR THANKSGIVING NIGHT /THE FINAL PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST/. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED ENOUGH THAT THIS IS A VERY
UNCERTAIN FORECAST...BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL THERE...ANYONE WITH
TRAVEL PLANS DURING THIS TIME SHOULD MONITOR FORECASTS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS CHANGES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   42  56  52  62 /  30  40  60  80
FSM   44  56  49  63 /  40  50  60  70
MLC   50  61  56  62 /  40  40  70 100
BVO   37  55  48  61 /  30  40  50  80
FYV   39  53  49  59 /  30  50  50  70
BYV   36  51  47  59 /  20  50  40  70
MKO   43  57  51  61 /  30  40  60  80
MIO   36  54  50  60 /  20  50  50  70
F10   46  60  54  61 /  40  40  60  90
HHW   52  63  54  63 /  50  50  70 100

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 202048
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
248 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WARM FRONT IN THE PROCESS OF SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...WITH MOST OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA NOW IN THE MORE MOIST AIR SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHTS...LIKELY 15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
AND A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN THE PANHANDLE REGION
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...WILL ARRIVE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AHEAD OF AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE WEST COAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL LOOK TO BE QUITE UNSEASONABLY
HIGH...IN ROUGHLY THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WHICH ARE CLOSEST TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...WITH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FEATURING THE
HIGHEST TOTALS. WRAPAROUND ENERGY WILL EXTEND LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DUE TO A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER LEADING UP TO THANKSGIVING. QUESTIONS
AND UNCERTAINTIES ABOUND FROM THANKSGIVING DAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND THEREAFTER...WITH BOTH POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN
INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS AND ALSO LARGE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
MODELS THEMSELVES. THE ONLY HINT OF CONSISTENCY IS THAT THE GFS IS
STICKING TO AND ITS WARM/DRY SOLUTION...AS IS THE ECMWF AND ITS
SOLUTION OF COLD WITH WINTER PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF
DOES HAVE SOME SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN...SO FOR NOW...WILL TREND
TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND SHOW SOME SMALL WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL FOR THANKSGIVING NIGHT /THE FINAL PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST/. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED ENOUGH THAT THIS IS A VERY
UNCERTAIN FORECAST...BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL THERE...ANYONE WITH
TRAVEL PLANS DURING THIS TIME SHOULD MONITOR FORECASTS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS CHANGES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   42  56  52  62 /  30  40  60  80
FSM   44  56  49  63 /  40  50  60  70
MLC   50  61  56  62 /  40  40  70 100
BVO   37  55  48  61 /  30  40  50  80
FYV   39  53  49  59 /  30  50  50  70
BYV   36  51  47  59 /  20  50  40  70
MKO   43  57  51  61 /  30  40  60  80
MIO   36  54  50  60 /  20  50  50  70
F10   46  60  54  61 /  40  40  60  90
HHW   52  63  54  63 /  50  50  70 100

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 202048
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
248 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WARM FRONT IN THE PROCESS OF SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...WITH MOST OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA NOW IN THE MORE MOIST AIR SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHTS...LIKELY 15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
AND A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN THE PANHANDLE REGION
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...WILL ARRIVE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AHEAD OF AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE WEST COAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL LOOK TO BE QUITE UNSEASONABLY
HIGH...IN ROUGHLY THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WHICH ARE CLOSEST TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...WITH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FEATURING THE
HIGHEST TOTALS. WRAPAROUND ENERGY WILL EXTEND LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DUE TO A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER LEADING UP TO THANKSGIVING. QUESTIONS
AND UNCERTAINTIES ABOUND FROM THANKSGIVING DAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND THEREAFTER...WITH BOTH POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN
INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS AND ALSO LARGE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
MODELS THEMSELVES. THE ONLY HINT OF CONSISTENCY IS THAT THE GFS IS
STICKING TO AND ITS WARM/DRY SOLUTION...AS IS THE ECMWF AND ITS
SOLUTION OF COLD WITH WINTER PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF
DOES HAVE SOME SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN...SO FOR NOW...WILL TREND
TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND SHOW SOME SMALL WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL FOR THANKSGIVING NIGHT /THE FINAL PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST/. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED ENOUGH THAT THIS IS A VERY
UNCERTAIN FORECAST...BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL THERE...ANYONE WITH
TRAVEL PLANS DURING THIS TIME SHOULD MONITOR FORECASTS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS CHANGES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   42  56  52  62 /  30  40  60  80
FSM   44  56  49  63 /  40  50  60  70
MLC   50  61  56  62 /  40  40  70 100
BVO   37  55  48  61 /  30  40  50  80
FYV   39  53  49  59 /  30  50  50  70
BYV   36  51  47  59 /  20  50  40  70
MKO   43  57  51  61 /  30  40  60  80
MIO   36  54  50  60 /  20  50  50  70
F10   46  60  54  61 /  40  40  60  90
HHW   52  63  54  63 /  50  50  70 100

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 202048
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
248 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WARM FRONT IN THE PROCESS OF SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...WITH MOST OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA NOW IN THE MORE MOIST AIR SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHTS...LIKELY 15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
AND A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN THE PANHANDLE REGION
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...WILL ARRIVE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AHEAD OF AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE WEST COAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL LOOK TO BE QUITE UNSEASONABLY
HIGH...IN ROUGHLY THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WHICH ARE CLOSEST TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...WITH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FEATURING THE
HIGHEST TOTALS. WRAPAROUND ENERGY WILL EXTEND LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DUE TO A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER LEADING UP TO THANKSGIVING. QUESTIONS
AND UNCERTAINTIES ABOUND FROM THANKSGIVING DAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND THEREAFTER...WITH BOTH POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN
INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS AND ALSO LARGE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
MODELS THEMSELVES. THE ONLY HINT OF CONSISTENCY IS THAT THE GFS IS
STICKING TO AND ITS WARM/DRY SOLUTION...AS IS THE ECMWF AND ITS
SOLUTION OF COLD WITH WINTER PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF
DOES HAVE SOME SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN...SO FOR NOW...WILL TREND
TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND SHOW SOME SMALL WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL FOR THANKSGIVING NIGHT /THE FINAL PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST/. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED ENOUGH THAT THIS IS A VERY
UNCERTAIN FORECAST...BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL THERE...ANYONE WITH
TRAVEL PLANS DURING THIS TIME SHOULD MONITOR FORECASTS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS CHANGES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   42  56  52  62 /  30  40  60  80
FSM   44  56  49  63 /  40  50  60  70
MLC   50  61  56  62 /  40  40  70 100
BVO   37  55  48  61 /  30  40  50  80
FYV   39  53  49  59 /  30  50  50  70
BYV   36  51  47  59 /  20  50  40  70
MKO   43  57  51  61 /  30  40  60  80
MIO   36  54  50  60 /  20  50  50  70
F10   46  60  54  61 /  40  40  60  90
HHW   52  63  54  63 /  50  50  70 100

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KOUN 201736 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1136 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY... WITH WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE E/NE. OVERNIGHT...
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL QUICKLY DROP TO IFR BY MORNING AS
LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUILD INTO THE
REGION. THE CHANCE FOR -RA WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD... HOWEVER... WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF CURRENT TAF
ISSUANCE.

JTK

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME. SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER NORTH
TEXAS WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ISENTROPIC LIFT TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL GIVE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING TONIGHT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ALTHOUGH PRIMARY ASCENT MOVES TO THE EAST
TOMORROW... THERE IS STILL ENOUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA TO
CONTINUE POPS INTO TOMORROW. THE PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE A
SOLID BET FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE SOUTHEAST... BUT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT/FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  41  61  50 /   0  20  30  60
HOBART OK         60  37  57  44 /   0  10  10  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  67  46  65  54 /   0  10  20  70
GAGE OK           56  29  53  37 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     54  35  55  46 /   0  20  40  50
DURANT OK         66  50  65  55 /   0  40  40  70

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 201736 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1136 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY... WITH WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE E/NE. OVERNIGHT...
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL QUICKLY DROP TO IFR BY MORNING AS
LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUILD INTO THE
REGION. THE CHANCE FOR -RA WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD... HOWEVER... WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF CURRENT TAF
ISSUANCE.

JTK

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME. SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER NORTH
TEXAS WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ISENTROPIC LIFT TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL GIVE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING TONIGHT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ALTHOUGH PRIMARY ASCENT MOVES TO THE EAST
TOMORROW... THERE IS STILL ENOUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA TO
CONTINUE POPS INTO TOMORROW. THE PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE A
SOLID BET FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE SOUTHEAST... BUT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT/FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  41  61  50 /   0  20  30  60
HOBART OK         60  37  57  44 /   0  10  10  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  67  46  65  54 /   0  10  20  70
GAGE OK           56  29  53  37 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     54  35  55  46 /   0  20  40  50
DURANT OK         66  50  65  55 /   0  40  40  70

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KTSA 201723
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1123 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WAVE WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND SPREAD OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS E OK AND
NW AR DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. DOWN SOUTH TOWARD
KMLC...MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE IFR RANGE
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS HAS DEAMPLIFIED...AS THE
DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND THE WESTERN RIDGE GETS
BROKEN DOWN BY SOME ENERGY ON THE NOSE OF THE EXTENDED CROSS-
PACIFIC JET. AT THE SURFACE...OUR AREA WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF SOME ENERGY ON THE
NOSE OF THE JET. THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM WEST TX
UP INTO OUR AREA...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THE MAIN CHANGE HAS BEEN
AT THE SURFACE...WHERE WINDS ARE MORE EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY.
THIS INFLUENCE MAY BE THE ONLY THING THAT KEEPS UP FROM GETTING
QUITE AS WARM AS WE WERE YESTERDAY. REGARDLESS...WITH SOME MIXING
THE RELATIVELY WARM LOW LEVELS WILL PUSH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S
TO LOW 60S IN THE SOUTH. I MADE A SLIGHT TWEAK TO TODAYS HIGHS
USING SOME OF THE LATEST HRRR DATA.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z...WITH MOISTURE BEGINNING
TO INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR
CEILINGS ACROSS SE OK/WC AR AFTER 03Z SPREADING NORTH AFTER 06Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TRANSITION TOWARD IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
SOUTH TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED ACROSS NRN TX EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH LIGHT ELY/NELY SFC FLOW AND A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS TODAY WILL LIKELY BE JUST A BIT
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH SE OK SHOULD SEE SIMILAR READINGS
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY LIFTS N THIS AFTERNOON. RAPIDLY
IMPROVING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN/SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF I40.

A STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE DESERT SW FRIDAY AND INTO
TX BY SATURDAY...WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING FOR OUR
REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST PW VALUES AT OR
ABOVE AN INCH (QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR) WILL SUPPORT
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE OK/ECNTRL OK/WRN AR
IN ZONE OF BEST UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS WILL SHIFT
E OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE SOME LINGERING
WRAPAROUND LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING DRIER AND COOLER...WITH TEMPS
FALLING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

ONCE AGAIN...THE ECMWF REMAINS CONSISTENT BRINGING A SHOT OF ARCTIC
AIR TO THE SRN PLAINS BY THANKSGIVING DAY. WITH COLD AIR IN
PLACE...THE UPPER SYSTEM SHOWN BY THE ECMWF COULD RESULT IN WINTER
PRECIPITATION ACROSS ERN OK/NW AR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. THIS IS
STILL OVER A WEEK AWAY AND JUST ONE MODEL SOLUTION...SO STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  42  57  52 /   0  30  40  60
FSM   58  43  57  48 /   0  30  50  60
MLC   60  50  63  55 /   0  30  40  70
BVO   54  36  56  48 /   0  20  40  50
FYV   54  38  54  48 /   0  30  50  50
BYV   54  34  52  46 /   0  20  50  50
MKO   57  42  58  50 /   0  30  40  60
MIO   53  35  54  49 /   0  20  50  50
F10   59  44  61  53 /   0  30  40  60
HHW   61  51  63  54 /  10  40  50  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 201616
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1016 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS HAS DEAMPLIFIED...AS THE
DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND THE WESTERN RIDGE GETS
BROKEN DOWN BY SOME ENERGY ON THE NOSE OF THE EXTENDED CROSS-
PACIFIC JET. AT THE SURFACE...OUR AREA WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF SOME ENERGY ON THE
NOSE OF THE JET. THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM WEST TX
UP INTO OUR AREA...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THE MAIN CHANGE HAS BEEN
AT THE SURFACE...WHERE WINDS ARE MORE EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY.
THIS INFLUENCE MAY BE THE ONLY THING THAT KEEPS UP FROM GETTING
QUITE AS WARM AS WE WERE YESTERDAY. REGARDLESS...WITH SOME MIXING
THE RELATIVELY WARM LOW LEVELS WILL PUSH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S
TO LOW 60S IN THE SOUTH. I MADE A SLIGHT TWEAK TO TODAYS HIGHS
USING SOME OF THE LATEST HRRR DATA.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z...WITH MOISTURE BEGINNING
TO INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR
CEILINGS ACROSS SE OK/WC AR AFTER 03Z SPREADING NORTH AFTER 06Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TRANSITION TOWARD IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
SOUTH TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED ACROSS NRN TX EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH LIGHT ELY/NELY SFC FLOW AND A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS TODAY WILL LIKELY BE JUST A BIT
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH SE OK SHOULD SEE SIMILAR READINGS
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY LIFTS N THIS AFTERNOON. RAPIDLY
IMPROVING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN/SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF I40.

A STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE DESERT SW FRIDAY AND INTO
TX BY SATURDAY...WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING FOR OUR
REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST PW VALUES AT OR
ABOVE AN INCH (QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR) WILL SUPPORT
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE OK/ECNTRL OK/WRN AR
IN ZONE OF BEST UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS WILL SHIFT
E OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE SOME LINGERING
WRAPAROUND LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING DRIER AND COOLER...WITH TEMPS
FALLING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

ONCE AGAIN...THE ECMWF REMAINS CONSISTENT BRINGING A SHOT OF ARCTIC
AIR TO THE SRN PLAINS BY THANKSGIVING DAY. WITH COLD AIR IN
PLACE...THE UPPER SYSTEM SHOWN BY THE ECMWF COULD RESULT IN WINTER
PRECIPITATION ACROSS ERN OK/NW AR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. THIS IS
STILL OVER A WEEK AWAY AND JUST ONE MODEL SOLUTION...SO STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  42  57  52 /   0  30  40  60
FSM   58  43  57  48 /   0  30  50  60
MLC   60  50  63  55 /   0  30  40  70
BVO   54  36  56  48 /   0  20  40  50
FYV   54  38  54  48 /   0  30  50  50
BYV   54  34  52  46 /   0  20  50  50
MKO   57  42  58  50 /   0  30  40  60
MIO   53  35  54  49 /   0  20  50  50
F10   59  44  61  53 /   0  30  40  60
HHW   61  51  63  54 /  10  40  50  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 201616
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1016 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS HAS DEAMPLIFIED...AS THE
DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND THE WESTERN RIDGE GETS
BROKEN DOWN BY SOME ENERGY ON THE NOSE OF THE EXTENDED CROSS-
PACIFIC JET. AT THE SURFACE...OUR AREA WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF SOME ENERGY ON THE
NOSE OF THE JET. THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM WEST TX
UP INTO OUR AREA...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THE MAIN CHANGE HAS BEEN
AT THE SURFACE...WHERE WINDS ARE MORE EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY.
THIS INFLUENCE MAY BE THE ONLY THING THAT KEEPS UP FROM GETTING
QUITE AS WARM AS WE WERE YESTERDAY. REGARDLESS...WITH SOME MIXING
THE RELATIVELY WARM LOW LEVELS WILL PUSH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S
TO LOW 60S IN THE SOUTH. I MADE A SLIGHT TWEAK TO TODAYS HIGHS
USING SOME OF THE LATEST HRRR DATA.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z...WITH MOISTURE BEGINNING
TO INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR
CEILINGS ACROSS SE OK/WC AR AFTER 03Z SPREADING NORTH AFTER 06Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TRANSITION TOWARD IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
SOUTH TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED ACROSS NRN TX EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH LIGHT ELY/NELY SFC FLOW AND A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS TODAY WILL LIKELY BE JUST A BIT
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH SE OK SHOULD SEE SIMILAR READINGS
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY LIFTS N THIS AFTERNOON. RAPIDLY
IMPROVING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN/SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF I40.

A STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE DESERT SW FRIDAY AND INTO
TX BY SATURDAY...WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING FOR OUR
REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST PW VALUES AT OR
ABOVE AN INCH (QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR) WILL SUPPORT
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE OK/ECNTRL OK/WRN AR
IN ZONE OF BEST UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS WILL SHIFT
E OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE SOME LINGERING
WRAPAROUND LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING DRIER AND COOLER...WITH TEMPS
FALLING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

ONCE AGAIN...THE ECMWF REMAINS CONSISTENT BRINGING A SHOT OF ARCTIC
AIR TO THE SRN PLAINS BY THANKSGIVING DAY. WITH COLD AIR IN
PLACE...THE UPPER SYSTEM SHOWN BY THE ECMWF COULD RESULT IN WINTER
PRECIPITATION ACROSS ERN OK/NW AR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. THIS IS
STILL OVER A WEEK AWAY AND JUST ONE MODEL SOLUTION...SO STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  42  57  52 /   0  30  40  60
FSM   58  43  57  48 /   0  30  50  60
MLC   60  50  63  55 /   0  30  40  70
BVO   54  36  56  48 /   0  20  40  50
FYV   54  38  54  48 /   0  30  50  50
BYV   54  34  52  46 /   0  20  50  50
MKO   57  42  58  50 /   0  30  40  60
MIO   53  35  54  49 /   0  20  50  50
F10   59  44  61  53 /   0  30  40  60
HHW   61  51  63  54 /  10  40  50  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30





000
FXUS64 KOUN 201151 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
551 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY
FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT
WILL INCREASE DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY SIGNIFICANTLY. WIDESPREAD IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME. SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER NORTH
TEXAS WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ISENTROPIC LIFT TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL GIVE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING TONIGHT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ALTHOUGH PRIMARY ASCENT MOVES TO THE EAST
TOMORROW... THERE IS STILL ENOUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA TO
CONTINUE POPS INTO TOMORROW. THE PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE A
SOLID BET FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE SOUTHEAST... BUT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT/FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  41  61  50 /   0  20  30  60
HOBART OK         58  37  57  44 /   0  10  10  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  46  65  54 /   0  10  20  70
GAGE OK           53  29  53  37 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     52  35  55  46 /   0  20  40  50
DURANT OK         65  50  65  55 /   0  40  40  70

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/01




000
FXUS64 KOUN 201151 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
551 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY
FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT
WILL INCREASE DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY SIGNIFICANTLY. WIDESPREAD IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME. SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER NORTH
TEXAS WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ISENTROPIC LIFT TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL GIVE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING TONIGHT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ALTHOUGH PRIMARY ASCENT MOVES TO THE EAST
TOMORROW... THERE IS STILL ENOUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA TO
CONTINUE POPS INTO TOMORROW. THE PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE A
SOLID BET FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE SOUTHEAST... BUT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT/FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  41  61  50 /   0  20  30  60
HOBART OK         58  37  57  44 /   0  10  10  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  46  65  54 /   0  10  20  70
GAGE OK           53  29  53  37 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     52  35  55  46 /   0  20  40  50
DURANT OK         65  50  65  55 /   0  40  40  70

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/01




000
FXUS64 KOUN 201151 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
551 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY
FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT
WILL INCREASE DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY SIGNIFICANTLY. WIDESPREAD IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME. SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER NORTH
TEXAS WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ISENTROPIC LIFT TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL GIVE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING TONIGHT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ALTHOUGH PRIMARY ASCENT MOVES TO THE EAST
TOMORROW... THERE IS STILL ENOUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA TO
CONTINUE POPS INTO TOMORROW. THE PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE A
SOLID BET FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE SOUTHEAST... BUT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT/FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  41  61  50 /   0  20  30  60
HOBART OK         58  37  57  44 /   0  10  10  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  46  65  54 /   0  10  20  70
GAGE OK           53  29  53  37 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     52  35  55  46 /   0  20  40  50
DURANT OK         65  50  65  55 /   0  40  40  70

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/01




000
FXUS64 KOUN 201151 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
551 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY
FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT
WILL INCREASE DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY SIGNIFICANTLY. WIDESPREAD IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME. SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER NORTH
TEXAS WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ISENTROPIC LIFT TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL GIVE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING TONIGHT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ALTHOUGH PRIMARY ASCENT MOVES TO THE EAST
TOMORROW... THERE IS STILL ENOUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA TO
CONTINUE POPS INTO TOMORROW. THE PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE A
SOLID BET FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE SOUTHEAST... BUT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT/FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  41  61  50 /   0  20  30  60
HOBART OK         58  37  57  44 /   0  10  10  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  46  65  54 /   0  10  20  70
GAGE OK           53  29  53  37 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     52  35  55  46 /   0  20  40  50
DURANT OK         65  50  65  55 /   0  40  40  70

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/01




000
FXUS64 KTSA 201121
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
521 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z...WITH MOISTURE BEGINNING
TO INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR
CEILINGS ACROSS SE OK/WC AR AFTER 03Z SPREADING NORTH AFTER 06Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TRANSITION TOWARD IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
SOUTH TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED ACROSS NRN TX EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH LIGHT ELY/NELY SFC FLOW AND A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS TODAY WILL LIKELY BE JUST A BIT
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH SE OK SHOULD SEE SIMILAR READINGS
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY LIFTS N THIS AFTERNOON. RAPIDLY
IMPROVING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN/SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF I40.

A STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE DESERT SW FRIDAY AND INTO
TX BY SATURDAY...WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING FOR OUR
REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST PW VALUES AT OR
ABOVE AN INCH (QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR) WILL SUPPORT
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE OK/ECNTRL OK/WRN AR
IN ZONE OF BEST UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS WILL SHIFT
E OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE SOME LINGERING
WRAPAROUND LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING DRIER AND COOLER...WITH TEMPS
FALLING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

ONCE AGAIN...THE ECMWF REMAINS CONSISTENT BRINGING A SHOT OF ARCTIC
AIR TO THE SRN PLAINS BY THANKSGIVING DAY. WITH COLD AIR IN
PLACE...THE UPPER SYSTEM SHOWN BY THE ECMWF COULD RESULT IN WINTER
PRECIPITATION ACROSS ERN OK/NW AR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. THIS IS
STILL OVER A WEEK AWAY AND JUST ONE MODEL SOLUTION...SO STAY TUNED.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...14








000
FXUS64 KTSA 201121
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
521 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z...WITH MOISTURE BEGINNING
TO INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR
CEILINGS ACROSS SE OK/WC AR AFTER 03Z SPREADING NORTH AFTER 06Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TRANSITION TOWARD IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
SOUTH TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED ACROSS NRN TX EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH LIGHT ELY/NELY SFC FLOW AND A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS TODAY WILL LIKELY BE JUST A BIT
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH SE OK SHOULD SEE SIMILAR READINGS
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY LIFTS N THIS AFTERNOON. RAPIDLY
IMPROVING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN/SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF I40.

A STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE DESERT SW FRIDAY AND INTO
TX BY SATURDAY...WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING FOR OUR
REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST PW VALUES AT OR
ABOVE AN INCH (QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR) WILL SUPPORT
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE OK/ECNTRL OK/WRN AR
IN ZONE OF BEST UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS WILL SHIFT
E OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE SOME LINGERING
WRAPAROUND LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING DRIER AND COOLER...WITH TEMPS
FALLING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

ONCE AGAIN...THE ECMWF REMAINS CONSISTENT BRINGING A SHOT OF ARCTIC
AIR TO THE SRN PLAINS BY THANKSGIVING DAY. WITH COLD AIR IN
PLACE...THE UPPER SYSTEM SHOWN BY THE ECMWF COULD RESULT IN WINTER
PRECIPITATION ACROSS ERN OK/NW AR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. THIS IS
STILL OVER A WEEK AWAY AND JUST ONE MODEL SOLUTION...SO STAY TUNED.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...14







000
FXUS64 KOUN 201033
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
433 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME. SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER NORTH
TEXAS WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ISENTROPIC LIFT TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL GIVE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING TONIGHT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ALTHOUGH PRIMARY ASCENT MOVES TO THE EAST
TOMORROW... THERE IS STILL ENOUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA TO
CONTINUE POPS INTO TOMORROW. THE PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE A
SOLID BET FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE SOUTHEAST... BUT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT/FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  41  61  50 /   0  20  30  60
HOBART OK         58  37  57  44 /   0  10  10  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  46  65  54 /   0  10  20  70
GAGE OK           53  29  53  37 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     52  35  55  46 /   0  20  40  50
DURANT OK         65  50  65  55 /   0  40  40  70

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 200916
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
316 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED ACROSS NRN TX EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH LIGHT ELY/NELY SFC FLOW AND A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS TODAY WILL LIKELY BE JUST A BIT
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH SE OK SHOULD SEE SIMILAR READINGS
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY LIFTS N THIS AFTERNOON. RAPIDLY
IMPROVING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN/SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF I40.

A STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE DESERT SW FRIDAY AND INTO
TX BY SATURDAY...WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING FOR OUR
REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST PW VALUES AT OR
ABOVE AN INCH (QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR) WILL SUPPORT
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE OK/ECNTRL OK/WRN AR
IN ZONE OF BEST UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS WILL SHIFT
E OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE SOME LINGERING
WRAPAROUND LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING DRIER AND COOLER...WITH TEMPS
FALLING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

ONCE AGAIN...THE ECMWF REMAINS CONSISTENT BRINGING A SHOT OF ARCTIC
AIR TO THE SRN PLAINS BY THANKSGIVING DAY. WITH COLD AIR IN
PLACE...THE UPPER SYSTEM SHOWN BY THE ECMWF COULD RESULT IN WINTER
PRECIPITATION ACROSS ERN OK/NW AR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. THIS IS
STILL OVER A WEEK AWAY AND JUST ONE MODEL SOLUTION...SO STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   55  42  57  52 /   0  30  40  60
FSM   57  43  57  48 /   0  30  50  60
MLC   60  50  63  55 /   0  30  40  70
BVO   53  36  56  48 /   0  20  40  50
FYV   53  38  54  48 /   0  30  50  50
BYV   51  34  52  46 /   0  20  50  50
MKO   55  42  58  50 /   0  30  40  60
MIO   52  35  54  49 /   0  20  50  50
F10   57  44  61  53 /   0  30  40  60
HHW   62  51  63  54 /  10  40  50  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....18





000
FXUS64 KTSA 200916
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
316 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED ACROSS NRN TX EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH LIGHT ELY/NELY SFC FLOW AND A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS TODAY WILL LIKELY BE JUST A BIT
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH SE OK SHOULD SEE SIMILAR READINGS
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY LIFTS N THIS AFTERNOON. RAPIDLY
IMPROVING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN/SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF I40.

A STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE DESERT SW FRIDAY AND INTO
TX BY SATURDAY...WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING FOR OUR
REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST PW VALUES AT OR
ABOVE AN INCH (QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR) WILL SUPPORT
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE OK/ECNTRL OK/WRN AR
IN ZONE OF BEST UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS WILL SHIFT
E OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE SOME LINGERING
WRAPAROUND LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING DRIER AND COOLER...WITH TEMPS
FALLING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

ONCE AGAIN...THE ECMWF REMAINS CONSISTENT BRINGING A SHOT OF ARCTIC
AIR TO THE SRN PLAINS BY THANKSGIVING DAY. WITH COLD AIR IN
PLACE...THE UPPER SYSTEM SHOWN BY THE ECMWF COULD RESULT IN WINTER
PRECIPITATION ACROSS ERN OK/NW AR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. THIS IS
STILL OVER A WEEK AWAY AND JUST ONE MODEL SOLUTION...SO STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   55  42  57  52 /   0  30  40  60
FSM   57  43  57  48 /   0  30  50  60
MLC   60  50  63  55 /   0  30  40  70
BVO   53  36  56  48 /   0  20  40  50
FYV   53  38  54  48 /   0  30  50  50
BYV   51  34  52  46 /   0  20  50  50
MKO   55  42  58  50 /   0  30  40  60
MIO   52  35  54  49 /   0  20  50  50
F10   57  44  61  53 /   0  30  40  60
HHW   62  51  63  54 /  10  40  50  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....18






000
FXUS64 KOUN 200505
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1105 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. EAST WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO SOUTHEAST WHILE REMAINING LIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL... FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WITH GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
MID-RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM... HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
INCREASING CHANCES FROM EARLY SAT THRU SAT NIGHT. WITH THE H500 LOW
DIGGING ACROSS NRN MEXICO... A DECENT SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL PULL
FROM THE GULF INTO ERN TX/SERN OK THROUGH SAT... POOLING DPTS INTO
THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION BY SAT AFTN. AS FOR
FRIDAY... THE INITIAL AXIS OF SFC/BL MOISTURE WILL REACH ALONG THE I-
35 CORRIDOR THROUGH FRI AM ALONG/AHEAD OF A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER INTO OK. FOR THE MOMENT... INITIAL
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN TX INTO CENTRAL
AND ERN OK. THROUGH THE AFTN... ACROSS WRN N TX INTO WRN OK... A
NARROW RIBBON OF WEAK SFC CAPE WILL DEVELOP... STRETCHING EAST OF
THE CAPROCK INTO THE TEXOMA REGION THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...
BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM SEYMOUR AND WICHITA FALLS TX SHOW A FAIRLY
STOUT CAP IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THEREFORE... BELIEVE
INITIAL CONVECTION ACROSS TEXOMA WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LATE
EVENING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT ACROSS WRN N TX... AS THE SFC LOW STARTS
TO LIFT E/NE OUT OF WEST TX AND THE LLJ BEGINS TO RAMP UP. HAVE
LOW EXPECTATIONS OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS WRN N TX... BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER STORMS ACROSS WRN N TX
WITHIN A NARROW WINDOW AROUND MIDNIGHT. INTO SAT MORNING...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE H500 TROUGH FINALLY PUSHES
INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THROUGH SATURDAY... PRECIP CHANCES WILL
INCREASE... WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. THE BEST CHANCES REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
LAYER PWATS SATURDAY WILL BE UP TO 1.20IN... WELL IN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE FOR NOV. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS (FRI-SAT) WILL APPROACH
1.5-3.0 IN... WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS LIKELY EAST OF I-35 AND
SOUTH OF I-40. THIS HAS RAISED SOME CONCERN... BUT FOR THE
MOMENT... GIVEN THE LENGTH OF THE EVENT... THE CONCERN FOR
FLOODING IS MINOR AT THE MOMENT. HOWEVER... THIS WILL MONITORED
CLOSELY AS LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY DEVELOP.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  56  42  58 /   0   0  20  30
HOBART OK         28  56  37  54 /   0   0  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  32  65  45  63 /   0   0  10  20
GAGE OK           24  52  29  49 /   0   0  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     25  50  36  54 /   0   0  30  30
DURANT OK         35  63  50  63 /   0   0  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/14/14




000
FXUS64 KOUN 200505
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1105 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. EAST WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO SOUTHEAST WHILE REMAINING LIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL... FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WITH GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
MID-RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM... HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
INCREASING CHANCES FROM EARLY SAT THRU SAT NIGHT. WITH THE H500 LOW
DIGGING ACROSS NRN MEXICO... A DECENT SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL PULL
FROM THE GULF INTO ERN TX/SERN OK THROUGH SAT... POOLING DPTS INTO
THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION BY SAT AFTN. AS FOR
FRIDAY... THE INITIAL AXIS OF SFC/BL MOISTURE WILL REACH ALONG THE I-
35 CORRIDOR THROUGH FRI AM ALONG/AHEAD OF A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER INTO OK. FOR THE MOMENT... INITIAL
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN TX INTO CENTRAL
AND ERN OK. THROUGH THE AFTN... ACROSS WRN N TX INTO WRN OK... A
NARROW RIBBON OF WEAK SFC CAPE WILL DEVELOP... STRETCHING EAST OF
THE CAPROCK INTO THE TEXOMA REGION THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...
BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM SEYMOUR AND WICHITA FALLS TX SHOW A FAIRLY
STOUT CAP IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THEREFORE... BELIEVE
INITIAL CONVECTION ACROSS TEXOMA WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LATE
EVENING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT ACROSS WRN N TX... AS THE SFC LOW STARTS
TO LIFT E/NE OUT OF WEST TX AND THE LLJ BEGINS TO RAMP UP. HAVE
LOW EXPECTATIONS OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS WRN N TX... BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER STORMS ACROSS WRN N TX
WITHIN A NARROW WINDOW AROUND MIDNIGHT. INTO SAT MORNING...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE H500 TROUGH FINALLY PUSHES
INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THROUGH SATURDAY... PRECIP CHANCES WILL
INCREASE... WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. THE BEST CHANCES REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
LAYER PWATS SATURDAY WILL BE UP TO 1.20IN... WELL IN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE FOR NOV. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS (FRI-SAT) WILL APPROACH
1.5-3.0 IN... WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS LIKELY EAST OF I-35 AND
SOUTH OF I-40. THIS HAS RAISED SOME CONCERN... BUT FOR THE
MOMENT... GIVEN THE LENGTH OF THE EVENT... THE CONCERN FOR
FLOODING IS MINOR AT THE MOMENT. HOWEVER... THIS WILL MONITORED
CLOSELY AS LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY DEVELOP.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  56  42  58 /   0   0  20  30
HOBART OK         28  56  37  54 /   0   0  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  32  65  45  63 /   0   0  10  20
GAGE OK           24  52  29  49 /   0   0  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     25  50  36  54 /   0   0  30  30
DURANT OK         35  63  50  63 /   0   0  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/14/14



000
FXUS64 KTSA 200500
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1100 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IS TRACKING WELL THIS EVENING AND FORECAST LOWS LOOK ON
TRACK. THE UPDATE WILL INCORPORATE OBSERVED TRENDS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 200500
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1100 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IS TRACKING WELL THIS EVENING AND FORECAST LOWS LOOK ON
TRACK. THE UPDATE WILL INCORPORATE OBSERVED TRENDS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 200319
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
919 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IS TRACKING WELL THIS EVENING AND FORECAST LOWS LOOK ON
TRACK. THE UPDATE WILL INCORPORATE OBSERVED TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   27  53  40  55 /   0   0  40  40
FSM   30  54  42  55 /   0  10  40  50
MLC   31  58  47  61 /   0  10  40  40
BVO   23  51  35  54 /   0   0  30  40
FYV   23  50  38  52 /   0   0  30  50
BYV   23  49  35  50 /   0   0  20  50
MKO   28  54  42  56 /   0   0  40  40
MIO   22  50  34  52 /   0   0  30  40
F10   29  55  43  58 /   0   0  40  40
HHW   34  60  50  61 /   0   0  50  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07







000
FXUS64 KTSA 200319
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
919 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IS TRACKING WELL THIS EVENING AND FORECAST LOWS LOOK ON
TRACK. THE UPDATE WILL INCORPORATE OBSERVED TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   27  53  40  55 /   0   0  40  40
FSM   30  54  42  55 /   0  10  40  50
MLC   31  58  47  61 /   0  10  40  40
BVO   23  51  35  54 /   0   0  30  40
FYV   23  50  38  52 /   0   0  30  50
BYV   23  49  35  50 /   0   0  20  50
MKO   28  54  42  56 /   0   0  40  40
MIO   22  50  34  52 /   0   0  30  40
F10   29  55  43  58 /   0   0  40  40
HHW   34  60  50  61 /   0   0  50  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 192308
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
508 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT ABOUT 5K FEET AT KMLC AND KFSM EARLY THURSDAY.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...WITH ROUGHLY AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 NOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. MAIN EFFECT IMMEDIATELY ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT IS A WIND SHIFT...WITH ONLY A MINOR
DROP IN DEW POINT AND LITTLE TO NO TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE. DRIER
AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER IN OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW MORNING THAT ARE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN
THIS MORNINGS. HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD ALSO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
OVERALL THAN TODAYS...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT
LIKELY TO RETURN BY AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTHWARD TOMORROW NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS REGION. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS IN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE A BIT TRICKY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH EARLY LOWS LOOKING
PROBABLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. THE KEY
TO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE HOW SOON THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVES
NORTH.

A LARGER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES INTO TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA BY SATURDAY...BRINGING MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MAINLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44...SUPPORTING A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT. THE TROUGH WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...BUT WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON ITS
BACKSIDE MAY CONTINUE AT LEAST A LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL INTO SUNDAY
EVENING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION. LOTS OF QUESTIONS FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WHICH IS AFTER THE VALID TIME OF THIS FORECAST...WITH AT
LEAST THE ECMWF PERSISTENTLY HINTING AT MORE WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL AROUND/AFTER THANKSGIVING. IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL
PLANS...IT MIGHT BE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON THE FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 192308
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
508 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT ABOUT 5K FEET AT KMLC AND KFSM EARLY THURSDAY.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...WITH ROUGHLY AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 NOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. MAIN EFFECT IMMEDIATELY ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT IS A WIND SHIFT...WITH ONLY A MINOR
DROP IN DEW POINT AND LITTLE TO NO TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE. DRIER
AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER IN OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW MORNING THAT ARE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN
THIS MORNINGS. HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD ALSO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
OVERALL THAN TODAYS...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT
LIKELY TO RETURN BY AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTHWARD TOMORROW NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS REGION. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS IN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE A BIT TRICKY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH EARLY LOWS LOOKING
PROBABLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. THE KEY
TO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE HOW SOON THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVES
NORTH.

A LARGER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES INTO TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA BY SATURDAY...BRINGING MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MAINLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44...SUPPORTING A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT. THE TROUGH WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...BUT WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON ITS
BACKSIDE MAY CONTINUE AT LEAST A LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL INTO SUNDAY
EVENING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION. LOTS OF QUESTIONS FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WHICH IS AFTER THE VALID TIME OF THIS FORECAST...WITH AT
LEAST THE ECMWF PERSISTENTLY HINTING AT MORE WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL AROUND/AFTER THANKSGIVING. IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL
PLANS...IT MIGHT BE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON THE FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KOUN 192306
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
506 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. EAST WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO SOUTHEAST WHILE REMAINING LIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL... FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WITH GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
MID-RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM... HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
INCREASING CHANCES FROM EARLY SAT THRU SAT NIGHT. WITH THE H500 LOW
DIGGING ACROSS NRN MEXICO... A DECENT SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL PULL
FROM THE GULF INTO ERN TX/SERN OK THROUGH SAT... POOLING DPTS INTO
THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION BY SAT AFTN. AS FOR
FRIDAY... THE INITIAL AXIS OF SFC/BL MOISTURE WILL REACH ALONG THE I-
35 CORRIDOR THROUGH FRI AM ALONG/AHEAD OF A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER INTO OK. FOR THE MOMENT... INITIAL
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN TX INTO CENTRAL
AND ERN OK. THROUGH THE AFTN... ACROSS WRN N TX INTO WRN OK... A
NARROW RIBBON OF WEAK SFC CAPE WILL DEVELOP... STRETCHING EAST OF
THE CAPROCK INTO THE TEXOMA REGION THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...
BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM SEYMOUR AND WICHITA FALLS TX SHOW A FAIRLY
STOUT CAP IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THEREFORE... BELIEVE
INITIAL CONVECTION ACROSS TEXOMA WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LATE
EVENING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT ACROSS WRN N TX... AS THE SFC LOW STARTS
TO LIFT E/NE OUT OF WEST TX AND THE LLJ BEGINS TO RAMP UP. HAVE
LOW EXPECTATIONS OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS WRN N TX... BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER STORMS ACROSS WRN N TX
WITHIN A NARROW WINDOW AROUND MIDNIGHT. INTO SAT MORNING...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE H500 TROUGH FINALLY PUSHES
INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THROUGH SATURDAY... PRECIP CHANCES WILL
INCREASE... WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. THE BEST CHANCES REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
LAYER PWATS SATURDAY WILL BE UP TO 1.20IN... WELL IN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE FOR NOV. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS (FRI-SAT) WILL APPROACH
1.5-3.0 IN... WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS LIKELY EAST OF I-35 AND
SOUTH OF I-40. THIS HAS RAISED SOME CONCERN... BUT FOR THE
MOMENT... GIVEN THE LENGTH OF THE EVENT... THE CONCERN FOR
FLOODING IS MINOR AT THE MOMENT. HOWEVER... THIS WILL MONITORED
CLOSELY AS LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY DEVELOP.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  56  42  58 /   0   0  20  30
HOBART OK         28  56  37  54 /   0   0  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  32  65  45  63 /   0   0  10  20
GAGE OK           24  52  29  49 /   0   0  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     25  50  36  54 /   0   0  30  30
DURANT OK         35  63  50  63 /   0   0  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/14/14



000
FXUS64 KTSA 192100
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
300 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...WITH ROUGHLY AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 NOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. MAIN EFFECT IMMEDIATELY ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT IS A WIND SHIFT...WITH ONLY A MINOR
DROP IN DEW POINT AND LITTLE TO NO TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE. DRIER
AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER IN OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW MORNING THAT ARE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN
THIS MORNINGS. HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD ALSO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
OVERALL THAN TODAYS...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT
LIKELY TO RETURN BY AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTHWARD TOMORROW NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS REGION. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS IN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE A BIT TRICKY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH EARLY LOWS LOOKING
PROBABLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. THE KEY
TO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE HOW SOON THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVES
NORTH.

A LARGER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES INTO TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA BY SATURDAY...BRINGING MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MAINLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44...SUPPORTING A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT. THE TROUGH WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...BUT WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON ITS
BACKSIDE MAY CONTINUE AT LEAST A LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL INTO SUNDAY
EVENING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION. LOTS OF QUESTIONS FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WHICH IS AFTER THE VALID TIME OF THIS FORECAST...WITH AT
LEAST THE ECMWF PERSISTENTLY HINTING AT MORE WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL AROUND/AFTER THANKSGIVING. IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL
PLANS...IT MIGHT BE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON THE FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   27  53  40  55 /   0   0  40  40
FSM   30  54  42  55 /   0  10  40  50
MLC   31  58  47  61 /   0  10  40  40
BVO   23  51  35  54 /   0   0  30  40
FYV   23  50  38  52 /   0   0  30  50
BYV   23  49  35  50 /   0   0  20  50
MKO   28  54  42  56 /   0   0  40  40
MIO   22  50  34  52 /   0   0  30  40
F10   29  55  43  58 /   0   0  40  40
HHW   34  60  50  61 /   0   0  50  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....22





000
FXUS64 KTSA 192100
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
300 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...WITH ROUGHLY AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 NOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. MAIN EFFECT IMMEDIATELY ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT IS A WIND SHIFT...WITH ONLY A MINOR
DROP IN DEW POINT AND LITTLE TO NO TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE. DRIER
AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER IN OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW MORNING THAT ARE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN
THIS MORNINGS. HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD ALSO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
OVERALL THAN TODAYS...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT
LIKELY TO RETURN BY AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTHWARD TOMORROW NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS REGION. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS IN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE A BIT TRICKY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH EARLY LOWS LOOKING
PROBABLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. THE KEY
TO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE HOW SOON THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVES
NORTH.

A LARGER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES INTO TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA BY SATURDAY...BRINGING MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MAINLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44...SUPPORTING A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT. THE TROUGH WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...BUT WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON ITS
BACKSIDE MAY CONTINUE AT LEAST A LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL INTO SUNDAY
EVENING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION. LOTS OF QUESTIONS FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WHICH IS AFTER THE VALID TIME OF THIS FORECAST...WITH AT
LEAST THE ECMWF PERSISTENTLY HINTING AT MORE WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL AROUND/AFTER THANKSGIVING. IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL
PLANS...IT MIGHT BE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON THE FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   27  53  40  55 /   0   0  40  40
FSM   30  54  42  55 /   0  10  40  50
MLC   31  58  47  61 /   0  10  40  40
BVO   23  51  35  54 /   0   0  30  40
FYV   23  50  38  52 /   0   0  30  50
BYV   23  49  35  50 /   0   0  20  50
MKO   28  54  42  56 /   0   0  40  40
MIO   22  50  34  52 /   0   0  30  40
F10   29  55  43  58 /   0   0  40  40
HHW   34  60  50  61 /   0   0  50  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....22





000
FXUS64 KTSA 192100
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
300 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...WITH ROUGHLY AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 NOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. MAIN EFFECT IMMEDIATELY ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT IS A WIND SHIFT...WITH ONLY A MINOR
DROP IN DEW POINT AND LITTLE TO NO TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE. DRIER
AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER IN OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW MORNING THAT ARE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN
THIS MORNINGS. HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD ALSO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
OVERALL THAN TODAYS...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT
LIKELY TO RETURN BY AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTHWARD TOMORROW NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS REGION. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS IN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE A BIT TRICKY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH EARLY LOWS LOOKING
PROBABLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. THE KEY
TO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE HOW SOON THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVES
NORTH.

A LARGER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES INTO TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA BY SATURDAY...BRINGING MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MAINLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44...SUPPORTING A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT. THE TROUGH WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...BUT WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON ITS
BACKSIDE MAY CONTINUE AT LEAST A LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL INTO SUNDAY
EVENING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION. LOTS OF QUESTIONS FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WHICH IS AFTER THE VALID TIME OF THIS FORECAST...WITH AT
LEAST THE ECMWF PERSISTENTLY HINTING AT MORE WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL AROUND/AFTER THANKSGIVING. IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL
PLANS...IT MIGHT BE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON THE FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   27  53  40  55 /   0   0  40  40
FSM   30  54  42  55 /   0  10  40  50
MLC   31  58  47  61 /   0  10  40  40
BVO   23  51  35  54 /   0   0  30  40
FYV   23  50  38  52 /   0   0  30  50
BYV   23  49  35  50 /   0   0  20  50
MKO   28  54  42  56 /   0   0  40  40
MIO   22  50  34  52 /   0   0  30  40
F10   29  55  43  58 /   0   0  40  40
HHW   34  60  50  61 /   0   0  50  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....22





000
FXUS64 KTSA 192100
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
300 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...WITH ROUGHLY AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 NOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. MAIN EFFECT IMMEDIATELY ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT IS A WIND SHIFT...WITH ONLY A MINOR
DROP IN DEW POINT AND LITTLE TO NO TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE. DRIER
AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER IN OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW MORNING THAT ARE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN
THIS MORNINGS. HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD ALSO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
OVERALL THAN TODAYS...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT
LIKELY TO RETURN BY AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTHWARD TOMORROW NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS REGION. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS IN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE A BIT TRICKY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH EARLY LOWS LOOKING
PROBABLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. THE KEY
TO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE HOW SOON THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVES
NORTH.

A LARGER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES INTO TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA BY SATURDAY...BRINGING MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MAINLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44...SUPPORTING A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT. THE TROUGH WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...BUT WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON ITS
BACKSIDE MAY CONTINUE AT LEAST A LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL INTO SUNDAY
EVENING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION. LOTS OF QUESTIONS FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WHICH IS AFTER THE VALID TIME OF THIS FORECAST...WITH AT
LEAST THE ECMWF PERSISTENTLY HINTING AT MORE WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL AROUND/AFTER THANKSGIVING. IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL
PLANS...IT MIGHT BE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON THE FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   27  53  40  55 /   0   0  40  40
FSM   30  54  42  55 /   0  10  40  50
MLC   31  58  47  61 /   0  10  40  40
BVO   23  51  35  54 /   0   0  30  40
FYV   23  50  38  52 /   0   0  30  50
BYV   23  49  35  50 /   0   0  20  50
MKO   28  54  42  56 /   0   0  40  40
MIO   22  50  34  52 /   0   0  30  40
F10   29  55  43  58 /   0   0  40  40
HHW   34  60  50  61 /   0   0  50  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....22





000
FXUS64 KOUN 192051
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
251 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL... FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WITH GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
MID-RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM... HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
INCREASING CHANCES FROM EARLY SAT THRU SAT NIGHT. WITH THE H500 LOW
DIGGING ACROSS NRN MEXICO... A DECENT SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL PULL
FROM THE GULF INTO ERN TX/SERN OK THROUGH SAT... POOLING DPTS INTO
THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION BY SAT AFTN. AS FOR
FRIDAY... THE INITIAL AXIS OF SFC/BL MOISTURE WILL REACH ALONG THE I-
35 CORRIDOR THROUGH FRI AM ALONG/AHEAD OF A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER INTO OK. FOR THE MOMENT... INITIAL
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN TX INTO CENTRAL
AND ERN OK. THROUGH THE AFTN... ACROSS WRN N TX INTO WRN OK... A
NARROW RIBBON OF WEAK SFC CAPE WILL DEVELOP... STRETCHING EAST OF
THE CAPROCK INTO THE TEXOMA REGION THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...
BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM SEYMOUR AND WICHITA FALLS TX SHOW A FAIRLY
STOUT CAP IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THEREFORE... BELIEVE
INITIAL CONVECTION ACROSS TEXOMA WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LATE
EVENING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT ACROSS WRN N TX... AS THE SFC LOW STARTS
TO LIFT E/NE OUT OF WEST TX AND THE LLJ BEGINS TO RAMP UP. HAVE
LOW EXPECTATIONS OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS WRN N TX... BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER STORMS ACROSS WRN N TX
WITHIN A NARROW WINDOW AROUND MIDNIGHT. INTO SAT MORNING...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE H500 TROUGH FINALLY PUSHES
INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THROUGH SATURDAY... PRECIP CHANCES WILL
INCREASE... WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. THE BEST CHANCES REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
LAYER PWATS SATURDAY WILL BE UP TO 1.20IN... WELL IN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE FOR NOV. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS (FRI-SAT) WILL APPROACH
1.5-3.0 IN... WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS LIKELY EAST OF I-35 AND
SOUTH OF I-40. THIS HAS RAISED SOME CONCERN... BUT FOR THE
MOMENT... GIVEN THE LENGTH OF THE EVENT... THE CONCERN FOR
FLOODING IS MINOR AT THE MOMENT. HOWEVER... THIS WILL MONITORED
CLOSELY AS LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY DEVELOP.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  56  42  58 /   0   0  20  30
HOBART OK         28  56  37  54 /   0   0  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  32  65  45  63 /   0   0  10  20
GAGE OK           24  52  29  49 /   0   0  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     25  50  36  54 /   0   0  30  30
DURANT OK         35  63  50  63 /   0   0  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/04




000
FXUS64 KOUN 192051
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
251 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL... FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WITH GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
MID-RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM... HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
INCREASING CHANCES FROM EARLY SAT THRU SAT NIGHT. WITH THE H500 LOW
DIGGING ACROSS NRN MEXICO... A DECENT SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL PULL
FROM THE GULF INTO ERN TX/SERN OK THROUGH SAT... POOLING DPTS INTO
THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION BY SAT AFTN. AS FOR
FRIDAY... THE INITIAL AXIS OF SFC/BL MOISTURE WILL REACH ALONG THE I-
35 CORRIDOR THROUGH FRI AM ALONG/AHEAD OF A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER INTO OK. FOR THE MOMENT... INITIAL
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN TX INTO CENTRAL
AND ERN OK. THROUGH THE AFTN... ACROSS WRN N TX INTO WRN OK... A
NARROW RIBBON OF WEAK SFC CAPE WILL DEVELOP... STRETCHING EAST OF
THE CAPROCK INTO THE TEXOMA REGION THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...
BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM SEYMOUR AND WICHITA FALLS TX SHOW A FAIRLY
STOUT CAP IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THEREFORE... BELIEVE
INITIAL CONVECTION ACROSS TEXOMA WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LATE
EVENING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT ACROSS WRN N TX... AS THE SFC LOW STARTS
TO LIFT E/NE OUT OF WEST TX AND THE LLJ BEGINS TO RAMP UP. HAVE
LOW EXPECTATIONS OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS WRN N TX... BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER STORMS ACROSS WRN N TX
WITHIN A NARROW WINDOW AROUND MIDNIGHT. INTO SAT MORNING...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE H500 TROUGH FINALLY PUSHES
INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THROUGH SATURDAY... PRECIP CHANCES WILL
INCREASE... WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. THE BEST CHANCES REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
LAYER PWATS SATURDAY WILL BE UP TO 1.20IN... WELL IN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE FOR NOV. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS (FRI-SAT) WILL APPROACH
1.5-3.0 IN... WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS LIKELY EAST OF I-35 AND
SOUTH OF I-40. THIS HAS RAISED SOME CONCERN... BUT FOR THE
MOMENT... GIVEN THE LENGTH OF THE EVENT... THE CONCERN FOR
FLOODING IS MINOR AT THE MOMENT. HOWEVER... THIS WILL MONITORED
CLOSELY AS LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY DEVELOP.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  56  42  58 /   0   0  20  30
HOBART OK         28  56  37  54 /   0   0  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  32  65  45  63 /   0   0  10  20
GAGE OK           24  52  29  49 /   0   0  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     25  50  36  54 /   0   0  30  30
DURANT OK         35  63  50  63 /   0   0  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/04



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