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000
FXUS61 KOKX 220548
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1248 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS WHILE
MOVING NORTH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY
WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DRY SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN OVER LONG ISLAND BEGINNING TO MOVE TO THE
NORTH...AND EVEN SPREADING TO THE WEST A BIT. ANY RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE LIGHT...AND WITH PRECIP MOVING INTO AREA OF COLDER
AIR...RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW. GOING THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH TEMPS SLOWLY FALLING...ANY PRECIP MAY FREEZE ON THE
ROAD SURFACES.

OTHERWISE...IF MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW...VERY
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL BE THE RESULT.

HOWEVER...COMPLICATING THINGS IS THAT TEMPS THROUGH 850 HPA OR SO
WARM SLIGHTLY. SO EVEN IF MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW
PRODUCING PROCESSES...ANY PRECIP MAY CHANGE OVER THE RAIN ANYWAY.

CLOUDS LIKELY LINGER EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THESE LOW CLOUDS COULD
BREAK UP SOMEWHAT AS RIDGE BUILDS.

TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF LATEST MOS AND FORECAST DATABASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AHEAD OF DIGGING MID WEST TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A WARM FRONT OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC...DRIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA.

WEAK LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DO NOT EXPECT REAL HIGH COVERAGE AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 30S MONDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST. THESE TEMPS LIKELY
REMAIN STEADY MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO EAST FLOW AND CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ALL GUIDANCE DOES NOT MAINTAIN A CLOSED
CIRCULATION AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OTHERWISE THERE IS GENERALLY
CONSISTENCY WITH THE MIDWESTERN LOW DEEPENING AND TRACKING NORTHWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FULL LATITUDE UPPER
TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. ONLY CHANGE HAS BEEN A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
COME THROUGH JUST AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...AND CLEAR THE EASTERN ZONES
JUST AFTER 12Z CHRISTMAS DAY. ALSO...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF PROFILES
ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE
EVENT.

WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
STRONG LIFT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. ALSO THERE
WILL BE A DEEP INFLUX OF GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. UP TO 2 INCHES WILL LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION.

IN THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY WINDS AND GUSTS INCREASE
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY. THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO NOW BE DRY.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES LATER SATURDAY AND TRACKS NORTH SUNDAY BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THE STORM WILL BE INLAND AND THE AREA WILL
BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS NEAR THE AREA INTO
TONIGHT.

THE FEW POCKETS OF VFR THAT EXIST THIS MORNING SHOULD GIVEWAY TO
MVFR BY 8Z...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH
DAY...WITH POCKETS OF IFR AT TIMES. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/
EXACT LOCATION OF ANY IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY. BETTER CHANCE
OF IFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE/SNOW WILL REMAIN EARLY THIS MORNING
DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH...MOSTLY EAST OF THE NYC
TERMINALS. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

A WEAK N-NNE FLOW AT LESS THAN 10 KT GRADUALLY VEERS AROUND TO
NE-E BY THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.LAE TONIGHT...IFR LIKELY.
.TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR LIKELY. E WINDS G15-20 KT PROBABLE...
BECOMING SE.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH IMPACT EVENT BECOMING LIKELY. IFR
WITH +RA. S/SE WINDS 15-20G20-25KT POSSIBLE. LLWS POSSIBLE
EASTERN AND MAYBE SOUTHERN TERMINALS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW LATE
AT NIGHT.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY AFTERNOON.
-SHRA IN THE MORNING. W WINDS 15-20G25-35KT LIKELY.
.FRIDAY...VFR. W-NW WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING...SLOWLY SHIFTING
EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS. A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
DRIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. EAST WINDS
INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

SEAS REMAIN 4 FT OR LESS OVER THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW INTO TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. WIND AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WIND AND GUSTS WILL
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. THEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE WIND GUSTS ON THE OCEAN INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WIND SHIFTS
TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND BECOMES VERY GUSTY IN THE COLDER AIR.
GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS ALL THE WATERS DURING
THURSDAY AND THEN SUBSIDE TO BELOW GALE FORCE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT DURING FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH DRY SATURDAY...AND WIND AND SEA ARE
LIKELY TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVEL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY
JUST LIGHT AMOUNTS.

RAINFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING COULD TOTAL
1 1/2 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/PW
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MALOIT/24
MARINE...MET/PW
HYDROLOGY...MET/PW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 220548
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1248 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS WHILE
MOVING NORTH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY
WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DRY SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN OVER LONG ISLAND BEGINNING TO MOVE TO THE
NORTH...AND EVEN SPREADING TO THE WEST A BIT. ANY RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE LIGHT...AND WITH PRECIP MOVING INTO AREA OF COLDER
AIR...RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW. GOING THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH TEMPS SLOWLY FALLING...ANY PRECIP MAY FREEZE ON THE
ROAD SURFACES.

OTHERWISE...IF MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW...VERY
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL BE THE RESULT.

HOWEVER...COMPLICATING THINGS IS THAT TEMPS THROUGH 850 HPA OR SO
WARM SLIGHTLY. SO EVEN IF MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW
PRODUCING PROCESSES...ANY PRECIP MAY CHANGE OVER THE RAIN ANYWAY.

CLOUDS LIKELY LINGER EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THESE LOW CLOUDS COULD
BREAK UP SOMEWHAT AS RIDGE BUILDS.

TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF LATEST MOS AND FORECAST DATABASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AHEAD OF DIGGING MID WEST TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A WARM FRONT OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC...DRIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA.

WEAK LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DO NOT EXPECT REAL HIGH COVERAGE AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 30S MONDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST. THESE TEMPS LIKELY
REMAIN STEADY MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO EAST FLOW AND CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ALL GUIDANCE DOES NOT MAINTAIN A CLOSED
CIRCULATION AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OTHERWISE THERE IS GENERALLY
CONSISTENCY WITH THE MIDWESTERN LOW DEEPENING AND TRACKING NORTHWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FULL LATITUDE UPPER
TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. ONLY CHANGE HAS BEEN A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
COME THROUGH JUST AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...AND CLEAR THE EASTERN ZONES
JUST AFTER 12Z CHRISTMAS DAY. ALSO...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF PROFILES
ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE
EVENT.

WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
STRONG LIFT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. ALSO THERE
WILL BE A DEEP INFLUX OF GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. UP TO 2 INCHES WILL LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION.

IN THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY WINDS AND GUSTS INCREASE
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY. THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO NOW BE DRY.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES LATER SATURDAY AND TRACKS NORTH SUNDAY BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THE STORM WILL BE INLAND AND THE AREA WILL
BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS NEAR THE AREA INTO
TONIGHT.

THE FEW POCKETS OF VFR THAT EXIST THIS MORNING SHOULD GIVEWAY TO
MVFR BY 8Z...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH
DAY...WITH POCKETS OF IFR AT TIMES. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/
EXACT LOCATION OF ANY IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY. BETTER CHANCE
OF IFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE/SNOW WILL REMAIN EARLY THIS MORNING
DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH...MOSTLY EAST OF THE NYC
TERMINALS. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

A WEAK N-NNE FLOW AT LESS THAN 10 KT GRADUALLY VEERS AROUND TO
NE-E BY THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.LAE TONIGHT...IFR LIKELY.
.TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR LIKELY. E WINDS G15-20 KT PROBABLE...
BECOMING SE.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH IMPACT EVENT BECOMING LIKELY. IFR
WITH +RA. S/SE WINDS 15-20G20-25KT POSSIBLE. LLWS POSSIBLE
EASTERN AND MAYBE SOUTHERN TERMINALS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW LATE
AT NIGHT.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY AFTERNOON.
-SHRA IN THE MORNING. W WINDS 15-20G25-35KT LIKELY.
.FRIDAY...VFR. W-NW WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING...SLOWLY SHIFTING
EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS. A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
DRIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. EAST WINDS
INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

SEAS REMAIN 4 FT OR LESS OVER THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW INTO TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. WIND AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WIND AND GUSTS WILL
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. THEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE WIND GUSTS ON THE OCEAN INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WIND SHIFTS
TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND BECOMES VERY GUSTY IN THE COLDER AIR.
GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS ALL THE WATERS DURING
THURSDAY AND THEN SUBSIDE TO BELOW GALE FORCE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT DURING FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH DRY SATURDAY...AND WIND AND SEA ARE
LIKELY TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVEL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY
JUST LIGHT AMOUNTS.

RAINFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING COULD TOTAL
1 1/2 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/PW
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MALOIT/24
MARINE...MET/PW
HYDROLOGY...MET/PW








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000
FXUS61 KALY 220544
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1244 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND QUEBEC WILL KEEP A MOIST LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION...WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS INTO MID WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND A BETTER CHANCE
FOR LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY
A STORM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTENSIFY RAPIDLY
AS IT MOVES NORTH TO THE OTTAWA VALLEY. IT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LITTLE LOW LEVEL FEATURE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND STILL SUPPORTING
SOME FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS IN NW CT AND THE BERKSHIRES...NOT
AT OBSERVATION SITES...BUT SOMEWHAT OF A DECREASE IN COVERAGE SEEN
ON RADAR...OF WHAT CAN BE DETECTED BY RADAR...WHICH IS NOT MUCH
BECAUSE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION IS BELOW THE RADAR BEAM.
SO...KEEPING FLURRIES IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...AND MAKING MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS MOISTURE
STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA AND
EVENTUALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA BY MORNING. PARTIAL THICKNESS
VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET MIXING IN. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH
OF A DROP FROM DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...FREEZING RAIN WILL LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH ALL RAIN FROM MID
MORNING TUESDAY ON ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

TUESDAY NIGHT A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. AS THE LOW
APPROACHES IT WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
SUCH THAT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS WET AND MILD TO START FOR CHRISTMAS
EVE...AND THEN BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR CHRISTMAS
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH PERHAPS SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CLOSE THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS HAVE MENTIONED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...A
POTENTIAL MULTI-HAZARD EVENT IS POSSIBLE WED INTO THU WITH A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WELL WEST OF THE REGION FROM THE TN
VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE CANADA.  THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING MILDER WX ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS...AND A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE.  ALSO STRONG S TO SW WINDS
AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING SFC CYCLONE ARE EXPECTED WED
INTO WED PM...AND A BAND OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.  THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS COUPLED WITH 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 24 HRS OR LESS...AND SNOW MELT COULD PRODUCE
SOME MINOR HYDRO ISSUES.  ALSO THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...AND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 970 HPA OR LOWER OVER WRN QUEBEC COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG W/NW WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS.

WED-WED NIGHT...INITIAL BURST OF RAINFALL DURING THE DAY ON WED WILL
BE WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285/290K SFC.  THE WARM FRONT
SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AN ANOMALOUS
SOUTHERLY LLJ JET OF 40-60 KTS AT H850 WILL ADVECT IN ANOMALOUS PWAT
VALUES OF 3 TO 5 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
GEFS.  THE +V-WIND ANOMALIES /SOUTHERLIES/ ARE 2 TO 3 STD DEVS ABOVE
NORMAL.  THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  H850 TEMPS RISE TO +10C TO
+12C IN THE WARM SECTOR.  THE NARROW COLD FRONT RAINBAND LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM BTWN
06Z-12Z/THU...AS THE CYCLONE DEEPENS AND INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES
N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY.  HIGH TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS EVE WILL BE IN THE
MID TO U50S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST /NEARLY 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/...AND M40S TO L50S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  AS
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN WED NIGHT...EXPECT SOME OF THE RAIN TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE SRN DACKS.  PERHAPS AN
INCH OR SO OF WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE.  LOWS CHRISTMAS MORNING WILL BE
IN THE MID TO U30S WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER TO
MID 40S FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EAST.

CHRISTMAS-CHRISTMAS NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER
WRN QUEBEC NEAR JAMES BAY.  SIGNIFICANT MSLP PRESSURE RISES WILL BE
OCCURRING OVER THE FCST AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.  BLUSTERY W/NW WINDS OF 15 TO 30
MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE DEEPER
MIXING AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT.  A WIND HEADLINE
MAY BE NEEDED HERE FOR PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.  SOME WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE WRN DACKS...AND WRN
GREENS.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M30S TO U40S FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA.  THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF CHRISTMAS NIGHT WITH
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS WEST OF THE TRI CITIES.  LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID 20S TO L30S.

FRI-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RIDGES IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE
MID LEVEL FLOW W/SW ALOFT.  A CLIPPER TYPE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SRN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY.  THIS SYSTEM LIFTS
N/NE INTO QUEBEC WITH SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.  SOME ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY GET INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  HIGH WILL BE IN
THE M30S TO M40S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO L30S.  HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COLDER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE L30S TO U30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO L40S
IN THE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...NORTHEAST AND EAST COAST.  THE GFS HAS WEAK
IMPULSES IN THE W/NW CYCLONIC FLOW FOCUSING LAKE EFFECT AND W/NW
UPSLOPE SNOWFALL.  THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
HANGING CLOSE TO THE COAST.  A COASTAL WAVE MOVES ALONG IT SUNDAY
FOR SOME SNOWFALL FOR MOST OF THE REGION.  A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS...SO A LOW CHC OF SNOWFALL WAS USED FOR THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA ON SUNDAY.  TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE FOR LATE DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ANCHORED ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING 24 PERIOD. A STRONG INVERSION IN PLACE
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CIGS MAINLY IN MVFR RANGE TO CONTINUE AS
WELL. A WEAK DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN SCATTERED -SHSN FOR KPSF/KPOU OVERNIGHT. SOME IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KPSF WHERE A TEMPO HAS BEEN
MENTIONED. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR WITH THE -SHSN AT KPOU.
KGFL/KALB WILL LIKELY HAVE DRY CONDITIONS AND CIGS IN THE MVFR OR
VFR RANGE OVERNIGHT.

WITH THE INVERSION REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...OVC CIGS
WILL PERSIST IN THE MVFR/VFR RANGES. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN GRADUALLY INCREASING CHANCES FOR
EITHER -RA/SN/PL/FZRA DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION. BEST CHANCES
WILL BE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...FROM THE NORTHEAST-EAST UP TO 5 KTS
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT
SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...11/SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 220544
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1244 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND QUEBEC WILL KEEP A MOIST LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION...WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS INTO MID WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND A BETTER CHANCE
FOR LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY
A STORM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTENSIFY RAPIDLY
AS IT MOVES NORTH TO THE OTTAWA VALLEY. IT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LITTLE LOW LEVEL FEATURE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND STILL SUPPORTING
SOME FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS IN NW CT AND THE BERKSHIRES...NOT
AT OBSERVATION SITES...BUT SOMEWHAT OF A DECREASE IN COVERAGE SEEN
ON RADAR...OF WHAT CAN BE DETECTED BY RADAR...WHICH IS NOT MUCH
BECAUSE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION IS BELOW THE RADAR BEAM.
SO...KEEPING FLURRIES IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...AND MAKING MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS MOISTURE
STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA AND
EVENTUALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA BY MORNING. PARTIAL THICKNESS
VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET MIXING IN. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH
OF A DROP FROM DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...FREEZING RAIN WILL LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH ALL RAIN FROM MID
MORNING TUESDAY ON ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

TUESDAY NIGHT A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. AS THE LOW
APPROACHES IT WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
SUCH THAT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS WET AND MILD TO START FOR CHRISTMAS
EVE...AND THEN BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR CHRISTMAS
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH PERHAPS SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CLOSE THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS HAVE MENTIONED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...A
POTENTIAL MULTI-HAZARD EVENT IS POSSIBLE WED INTO THU WITH A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WELL WEST OF THE REGION FROM THE TN
VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE CANADA.  THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING MILDER WX ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS...AND A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE.  ALSO STRONG S TO SW WINDS
AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING SFC CYCLONE ARE EXPECTED WED
INTO WED PM...AND A BAND OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.  THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS COUPLED WITH 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 24 HRS OR LESS...AND SNOW MELT COULD PRODUCE
SOME MINOR HYDRO ISSUES.  ALSO THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...AND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 970 HPA OR LOWER OVER WRN QUEBEC COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG W/NW WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS.

WED-WED NIGHT...INITIAL BURST OF RAINFALL DURING THE DAY ON WED WILL
BE WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285/290K SFC.  THE WARM FRONT
SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AN ANOMALOUS
SOUTHERLY LLJ JET OF 40-60 KTS AT H850 WILL ADVECT IN ANOMALOUS PWAT
VALUES OF 3 TO 5 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
GEFS.  THE +V-WIND ANOMALIES /SOUTHERLIES/ ARE 2 TO 3 STD DEVS ABOVE
NORMAL.  THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  H850 TEMPS RISE TO +10C TO
+12C IN THE WARM SECTOR.  THE NARROW COLD FRONT RAINBAND LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM BTWN
06Z-12Z/THU...AS THE CYCLONE DEEPENS AND INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES
N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY.  HIGH TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS EVE WILL BE IN THE
MID TO U50S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST /NEARLY 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/...AND M40S TO L50S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  AS
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN WED NIGHT...EXPECT SOME OF THE RAIN TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE SRN DACKS.  PERHAPS AN
INCH OR SO OF WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE.  LOWS CHRISTMAS MORNING WILL BE
IN THE MID TO U30S WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER TO
MID 40S FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EAST.

CHRISTMAS-CHRISTMAS NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER
WRN QUEBEC NEAR JAMES BAY.  SIGNIFICANT MSLP PRESSURE RISES WILL BE
OCCURRING OVER THE FCST AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.  BLUSTERY W/NW WINDS OF 15 TO 30
MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE DEEPER
MIXING AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT.  A WIND HEADLINE
MAY BE NEEDED HERE FOR PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.  SOME WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE WRN DACKS...AND WRN
GREENS.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M30S TO U40S FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA.  THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF CHRISTMAS NIGHT WITH
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS WEST OF THE TRI CITIES.  LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID 20S TO L30S.

FRI-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RIDGES IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE
MID LEVEL FLOW W/SW ALOFT.  A CLIPPER TYPE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SRN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY.  THIS SYSTEM LIFTS
N/NE INTO QUEBEC WITH SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.  SOME ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY GET INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  HIGH WILL BE IN
THE M30S TO M40S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO L30S.  HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COLDER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE L30S TO U30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO L40S
IN THE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...NORTHEAST AND EAST COAST.  THE GFS HAS WEAK
IMPULSES IN THE W/NW CYCLONIC FLOW FOCUSING LAKE EFFECT AND W/NW
UPSLOPE SNOWFALL.  THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
HANGING CLOSE TO THE COAST.  A COASTAL WAVE MOVES ALONG IT SUNDAY
FOR SOME SNOWFALL FOR MOST OF THE REGION.  A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS...SO A LOW CHC OF SNOWFALL WAS USED FOR THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA ON SUNDAY.  TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE FOR LATE DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ANCHORED ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING 24 PERIOD. A STRONG INVERSION IN PLACE
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CIGS MAINLY IN MVFR RANGE TO CONTINUE AS
WELL. A WEAK DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN SCATTERED -SHSN FOR KPSF/KPOU OVERNIGHT. SOME IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KPSF WHERE A TEMPO HAS BEEN
MENTIONED. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR WITH THE -SHSN AT KPOU.
KGFL/KALB WILL LIKELY HAVE DRY CONDITIONS AND CIGS IN THE MVFR OR
VFR RANGE OVERNIGHT.

WITH THE INVERSION REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...OVC CIGS
WILL PERSIST IN THE MVFR/VFR RANGES. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN GRADUALLY INCREASING CHANCES FOR
EITHER -RA/SN/PL/FZRA DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION. BEST CHANCES
WILL BE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...FROM THE NORTHEAST-EAST UP TO 5 KTS
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT
SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...11/SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/NAS







  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBGM 220536
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1236 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY AS
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE. A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN MIDWEST IN
COMBINATION WITH A LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION, FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY RAIN INTO
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...
THE MAIN GRID CHANGES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WERE TO AMP UP THE
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TO NEAR OVERCAST. NO REASON TO BELIEVE,
BASED ON CURRENT CLOUD COVER AND THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION
ALOFT, THAT WE WILL SEE APPRECIABLE CLEARING AT ANY POINT.

THE OVERNIGHT MINS NEEDED SOME WORK, TOO. MAINLY BROUGHT A FEW
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE WYOMING VALLEY WHERE THE CURRENT
TEMPS WERE CLOSE TO THE PROJECTED MINS.

OTHERWISE, THE PREVIOUS GRIDS LOOK GREAT AND ONLY NEEDED MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.


4 PM UPDATRE...
NO ONE CAN SAY THE BGM/S REPUTATION FOR CLDS IS UNDESERVED AFT
THIS STRETCH OF OVC WX. AREA OF CLRG OVER THE NRN FINGER LAKES AND
ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN QUICKLY FILLED IN AS HTG BUBBLED UP ADTNL
MOISTURE INTO A NEW SC DECK. WHILE SOME OF THE MODELS INSIST THAT
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO CLR THE AREA THIS EVE INTO MON...
STUBBORNLY STRNG INV REMAINS IN PLACE...AND WITH LGT WINDS AND NO
MIXING...SEE LTL TO BRK UP THE CLDS IN PLACE. ALSO...SAT IMAGES
SHOW A SOLID DECK ALL THE WAY BACK INTO EERN OH THIS AFT. WHEN
WINDS FNLY DO DVLP MON MRNG...THEY/RE FROM THE SE PTNLY ADDING
MOISTURE TO THE SNDG. SO...HAVE GONE AGAINST MODEL GUID AND GONE
WITH EXPERIENCE AND CONSISTENCY AND CONTD THE CLDS THRU THE NEAR
TERM.

TEMPS ENDED UP STAYING BLO GUID FCST TODAY AS THE STUBBORN CLDS
DID NOT ALLOW ANY HTG AS ANTICIPATED BY MOS. XPCT LTL DIURNAL CHG
OVRNGT WITH THE CLDS. FOR MON...SOME WEAK WAA DOES OCCUR WITH THE
SELY FLOW SO HAVE GONE NEARER GUID FCST. SOME LGT PCPN MAY DVLP
OVER THE SERN ZONES ON MON AS A WEAK WV PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH.
TEMPS MRGNL SO HAVE GONE WITH MIXED PCPN WHICH BLENDED WELL WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM EST UPDATE... A LARGE STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT NY
AND PA STARTING LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUES MORNING AND MAY LINGER
THROUGH LATE THURS NIGHT...

MANY UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST WITH THIS STORM. BUT...
SYNOPTICALLY... GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE
UPPR LOW. GUIDANCE ALSO SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD IDEA OF THE OVERALL
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC LOW AND IT MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

LATE MONDAY NIGHT THE POTENT UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD
ALONG AND SLIGHTLY E OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND GENERATE
CYCLOGENESIS OVR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF KS AND NE. THIS SFC LOW
WILL THEN TRACK NE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. BY TUES
MORNING A STRONG VORT MAXIMA WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPR
TROUGH OVR FAR S TX GENERATING A SECONDARY SFC LOW/SFC TROUGH OVR
E LA. AS THIS OCCURS... THE MAIN SFC LOW OVER THE NORTH WILL BECOME
OCCLUDED.

THE UPPR TROUGH WILL START TO SHIFT EAST TUES NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST THE SECONDARY SFC LOW/TROUGH WILL MERGE WITH THE
PRIMARY SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARDS OUR CWA AND
BRING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING LATE MONDAY NIGHT
LASTING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AS THIS SYSTEM STARTS TO GENERATE PRECIP... EXPECT THE PRECIP TO
START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX AND MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. THIS IS DUE TO WAA AND ISENTROPHIC LIFT AHEAD THE
OCCLUDED FRONT. PRECIP WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE N AND WEST. A STRONG
LLJ WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CWA LATE TUES MORNING/AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN STRONG WAA AND GUSTY WINDS OVR THE REGION. BY TUES
AFTERNOON THE WAA WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AND ALL PRECIP WILL
FALL AS RAIN. RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH
WED NIGHT. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS PWAT
VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE COLDER ATTENDANT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL START TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION THURS MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY GUSTY BEHIND
THE FROPA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE VERY COLD AIR WITH IT DUE IT
WHERE IT ORIGINATED. IT IS A PACIFIC AIRMASS NOT AN ARCTIC.
THUS... TEMPS WILL NOT DROP DRAMATICALLY POST FRONTAL.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED ATTM TO BE HEAVY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FNT SWINGS THRU FRI NGT AND RETURNS THE AREA TO MORE TYPICAL
EARLY WINTER WX. CONTD CAA WILL GRADUALLY LWR TEMPS THRU THE PD
INCRSG THE CHANCE OF LE SNOW SHWRS. SHEARED FLOW ININTIALLY BHD
THE FNT WILL LIMIT THE AMT OF LE...WHILE THE DEEPER COLD AIR AITS
TO JUST BEYOND THE PD LATE SUN AND EARLY MON.

TEMPS WILL AVG NEAR NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WITH A CIG AROUND
1200 FEET NOW AT KBGM, SOME IFR IS POSSIBLE HERE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

PRECIPITATION OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS EARLY TONIGHT AS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. SOME ICE PELLETS POSSIBLE NY TERMINALS. FOR NOW I
LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN. SOME OF THIS IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY AT KBGM, BUT TOO LOW CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE JUST YET.

WINDS LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO EAST 5 TO 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE TO THURS...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE- THURS.

FRI...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/DJP
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...HEDEN







000
FXUS61 KBGM 220536
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1236 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY AS
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE. A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN MIDWEST IN
COMBINATION WITH A LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION, FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY RAIN INTO
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...
THE MAIN GRID CHANGES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WERE TO AMP UP THE
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TO NEAR OVERCAST. NO REASON TO BELIEVE,
BASED ON CURRENT CLOUD COVER AND THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION
ALOFT, THAT WE WILL SEE APPRECIABLE CLEARING AT ANY POINT.

THE OVERNIGHT MINS NEEDED SOME WORK, TOO. MAINLY BROUGHT A FEW
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE WYOMING VALLEY WHERE THE CURRENT
TEMPS WERE CLOSE TO THE PROJECTED MINS.

OTHERWISE, THE PREVIOUS GRIDS LOOK GREAT AND ONLY NEEDED MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.


4 PM UPDATRE...
NO ONE CAN SAY THE BGM/S REPUTATION FOR CLDS IS UNDESERVED AFT
THIS STRETCH OF OVC WX. AREA OF CLRG OVER THE NRN FINGER LAKES AND
ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN QUICKLY FILLED IN AS HTG BUBBLED UP ADTNL
MOISTURE INTO A NEW SC DECK. WHILE SOME OF THE MODELS INSIST THAT
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO CLR THE AREA THIS EVE INTO MON...
STUBBORNLY STRNG INV REMAINS IN PLACE...AND WITH LGT WINDS AND NO
MIXING...SEE LTL TO BRK UP THE CLDS IN PLACE. ALSO...SAT IMAGES
SHOW A SOLID DECK ALL THE WAY BACK INTO EERN OH THIS AFT. WHEN
WINDS FNLY DO DVLP MON MRNG...THEY/RE FROM THE SE PTNLY ADDING
MOISTURE TO THE SNDG. SO...HAVE GONE AGAINST MODEL GUID AND GONE
WITH EXPERIENCE AND CONSISTENCY AND CONTD THE CLDS THRU THE NEAR
TERM.

TEMPS ENDED UP STAYING BLO GUID FCST TODAY AS THE STUBBORN CLDS
DID NOT ALLOW ANY HTG AS ANTICIPATED BY MOS. XPCT LTL DIURNAL CHG
OVRNGT WITH THE CLDS. FOR MON...SOME WEAK WAA DOES OCCUR WITH THE
SELY FLOW SO HAVE GONE NEARER GUID FCST. SOME LGT PCPN MAY DVLP
OVER THE SERN ZONES ON MON AS A WEAK WV PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH.
TEMPS MRGNL SO HAVE GONE WITH MIXED PCPN WHICH BLENDED WELL WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM EST UPDATE... A LARGE STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT NY
AND PA STARTING LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUES MORNING AND MAY LINGER
THROUGH LATE THURS NIGHT...

MANY UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST WITH THIS STORM. BUT...
SYNOPTICALLY... GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE
UPPR LOW. GUIDANCE ALSO SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD IDEA OF THE OVERALL
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC LOW AND IT MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

LATE MONDAY NIGHT THE POTENT UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD
ALONG AND SLIGHTLY E OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND GENERATE
CYCLOGENESIS OVR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF KS AND NE. THIS SFC LOW
WILL THEN TRACK NE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. BY TUES
MORNING A STRONG VORT MAXIMA WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPR
TROUGH OVR FAR S TX GENERATING A SECONDARY SFC LOW/SFC TROUGH OVR
E LA. AS THIS OCCURS... THE MAIN SFC LOW OVER THE NORTH WILL BECOME
OCCLUDED.

THE UPPR TROUGH WILL START TO SHIFT EAST TUES NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST THE SECONDARY SFC LOW/TROUGH WILL MERGE WITH THE
PRIMARY SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARDS OUR CWA AND
BRING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING LATE MONDAY NIGHT
LASTING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AS THIS SYSTEM STARTS TO GENERATE PRECIP... EXPECT THE PRECIP TO
START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX AND MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. THIS IS DUE TO WAA AND ISENTROPHIC LIFT AHEAD THE
OCCLUDED FRONT. PRECIP WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE N AND WEST. A STRONG
LLJ WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CWA LATE TUES MORNING/AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN STRONG WAA AND GUSTY WINDS OVR THE REGION. BY TUES
AFTERNOON THE WAA WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AND ALL PRECIP WILL
FALL AS RAIN. RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH
WED NIGHT. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS PWAT
VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE COLDER ATTENDANT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL START TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION THURS MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY GUSTY BEHIND
THE FROPA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE VERY COLD AIR WITH IT DUE IT
WHERE IT ORIGINATED. IT IS A PACIFIC AIRMASS NOT AN ARCTIC.
THUS... TEMPS WILL NOT DROP DRAMATICALLY POST FRONTAL.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED ATTM TO BE HEAVY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FNT SWINGS THRU FRI NGT AND RETURNS THE AREA TO MORE TYPICAL
EARLY WINTER WX. CONTD CAA WILL GRADUALLY LWR TEMPS THRU THE PD
INCRSG THE CHANCE OF LE SNOW SHWRS. SHEARED FLOW ININTIALLY BHD
THE FNT WILL LIMIT THE AMT OF LE...WHILE THE DEEPER COLD AIR AITS
TO JUST BEYOND THE PD LATE SUN AND EARLY MON.

TEMPS WILL AVG NEAR NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WITH A CIG AROUND
1200 FEET NOW AT KBGM, SOME IFR IS POSSIBLE HERE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

PRECIPITATION OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS EARLY TONIGHT AS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. SOME ICE PELLETS POSSIBLE NY TERMINALS. FOR NOW I
LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN. SOME OF THIS IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY AT KBGM, BUT TOO LOW CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE JUST YET.

WINDS LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO EAST 5 TO 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE TO THURS...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE- THURS.

FRI...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/DJP
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...HEDEN





  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBTV 220523
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1223 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END WITH CLOUDS LINGERING
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY...BUT A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION
CHANGES TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ON
CHRISTMAS EVE ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1223 AM EST MONDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO CLOUDS AS OF 9 PM
TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. ONLY NOTICEABLE CHANGE
WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BY SOME 2-3 DEGREES
BASED OFF LATEST GUIDANCE AND TD VALUES. EARLIER MINS APPEARED
JUST A TAD TOO COOL. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND JUST A FEW STRAY FLURRIES HERE AND THERE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EST SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM WILL TAKE PLACE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING
ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
TAKING PLACE. THIS WILL SET UP A THERMAL PROFILE CONDUCIVE TO
MIXED PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT
NEVERTHELESS SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION
BECOMES ALL RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STEADIER RAIN AND WIND STILL
NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 357 PM EST SUNDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA
OF RAINY AND POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY INTO
THE MORNING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS DAY.

WEDNESDAY MORNING THE PRECIPITATION CHANCE INCREASES QUICKLY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE MIDWEST. A PULSE OF ENERGY
WILL SLIDE UP THE TROUGH AND THEN LIFT OVER THE NORTHEAST BRINGING
CATEGORICAL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THE
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE SHIFTING MORE TOWARDS
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THAT WILL CONTINUE THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE LOW LEVELS WHICH WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A PERSISTENT RAIN EVENT ON WEDNESDAY. THE LONG TERM
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED THE TREND OF WEAKENING THE 850MB JET OVER
THE REGION AND DEVELOP THE SYSTEM AS MORE OF A STRONG OPEN WAVE
INSTEAD OF A CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL STILL PROVIDE FOR CHANCES OF
30-40 MPH GUSTS BUT WITHOUT THE EASTERN COMPONENT THE CHANCES OF
STRONG DOWNSLOPE WIND GUSTS ARE WEAKENING. THE BIGGEST AREA OF
CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND PERHAPS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE
ADIRONDACKS.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM...WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL
AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
AMOUNTS WILL VARY A BIT DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS. HIGHEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG SOUTH FACING
SLOPES OF SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS  OVER
NORTHWEST VERMONT AND FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE COASTAL AREAS OF
NEW ENGLAND WOULD SEE MORE RAINFALL FOR THIS EVENT. FLOODING STILL
CONTINUES TO REMAIN A POTENTIAL ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S...AND LITTLE DROP OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF
RAIN AND MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THE
SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN SMALL STREAMS.
RIGHT NOW RIVER GAUGES ARE SHOWING RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE LOW...SO
WHILE SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DON`T EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING ISSUES.

RAIN CONTINUES EARLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY...THEN SOME DRYING EXPECTED WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS COLDER AIR RETURNS. TEMPS IN
VALLEYS REMAIN MILD THOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH READINGS IN
THE 40S.

DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS
A WEAK CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS, MOSTLY DUE TO
PERSISTENT STRATUS, TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAFS INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. INTERVALS OF MIST WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT MOST OF THE
TAFS GIVEN VERY LIGHT BL FLOW, SATURATED LOW-LEVELS AND WEAK
INVERSION. ANY MIST TO BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING. WINDS VERY LIGHT
TO CALM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST
GENERALLY 4-6 KNOTS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY

LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MAINLY AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. WHILE LOW- LEVELS REMAIN
SATURATED, EXPECT P-TYPE TO INIIALLY BE A LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE,
BECOMING A LIGHT SNOW/RAIN MIX AS COLUMN SATURATES FURTHER. I`VE
MENTIONED P-TYPE AT RUT BUT KEPT IT TO VCSH ELSEWHERE AS RUT HAS
THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH 06Z.
SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE-12Z WED...MOSTLY MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-06Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE.

06Z THU-18Z THU...INITIAL MVFR/IFR DUE TO RAIN ALONG A SHARP COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE CHRISTMAS DAY BECOMING VFR/MVFR AS FRONT CLEARS.
SHARP WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST/NORTHWEST THRU THE DAY.

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG/NEILES
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KBTV 220522
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1222 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END WITH CLOUDS LINGERING
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY...BUT A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION
CHANGES TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ON
CHRISTMAS EVE ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 919 PM EST SUNDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO CLOUDS AS OF 9 PM
TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. ONLY NOTICEABLE CHANGE
WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BY SOME 2-3 DEGREES
BASED OFF LATEST GUIDANCE AND TD VALUES. EARLIER MINS APPEARED
JUST A TAD TOO COOL. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND JUST A FEW STRAY FLURRIES HERE AND THERE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EST SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM WILL TAKE PLACE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING
ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
TAKING PLACE. THIS WILL SET UP A THERMAL PROFILE CONDUCIVE TO
MIXED PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT
NEVERTHELESS SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION
BECOMES ALL RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STEADIER RAIN AND WIND STILL
NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 357 PM EST SUNDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA
OF RAINY AND POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY INTO
THE MORNING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS DAY.

WEDNESDAY MORNING THE PRECIPITATION CHANCE INCREASES QUICKLY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE MIDWEST. A PULSE OF ENERGY
WILL SLIDE UP THE TROUGH AND THEN LIFT OVER THE NORTHEAST BRINGING
CATEGORICAL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THE
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE SHIFTING MORE TOWARDS
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THAT WILL CONTINUE THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE LOW LEVELS WHICH WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A PERSISTENT RAIN EVENT ON WEDNESDAY. THE LONG TERM
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED THE TREND OF WEAKENING THE 850MB JET OVER
THE REGION AND DEVELOP THE SYSTEM AS MORE OF A STRONG OPEN WAVE
INSTEAD OF A CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL STILL PROVIDE FOR CHANCES OF
30-40 MPH GUSTS BUT WITHOUT THE EASTERN COMPONENT THE CHANCES OF
STRONG DOWNSLOPE WIND GUSTS ARE WEAKENING. THE BIGGEST AREA OF
CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND PERHAPS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE
ADIRONDACKS.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM...WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL
AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
AMOUNTS WILL VARY A BIT DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS. HIGHEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG SOUTH FACING
SLOPES OF SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS  OVER
NORTHWEST VERMONT AND FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE COASTAL AREAS OF
NEW ENGLAND WOULD SEE MORE RAINFALL FOR THIS EVENT. FLOODING STILL
CONTINUES TO REMAIN A POTENTIAL ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S...AND LITTLE DROP OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF
RAIN AND MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THE
SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN SMALL STREAMS.
RIGHT NOW RIVER GAUGES ARE SHOWING RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE LOW...SO
WHILE SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DON`T EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING ISSUES.

RAIN CONTINUES EARLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY...THEN SOME DRYING EXPECTED WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS COLDER AIR RETURNS. TEMPS IN
VALLEYS REMAIN MILD THOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH READINGS IN
THE 40S.

DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS
A WEAK CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS, MOSTLY DUE TO
PERSISTENT STRATUS, TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAFS INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. INTERVALS OF MIST WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT MOST OF THE
TAFS GIVEN VERY LIGHT BL FLOW, SATURATED LOW-LEVELS AND WEAK
INVERSION. ANY MIST TO BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING. WINDS VERY LIGHT
TO CALM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST
GENERALLY 4-6 KNOTS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY

LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MAINLY AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. WHILE LOW- LEVELS REMAIN
SATURATED, EXPECT P-TYPE TO INIIALLY BE A LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE,
BECOMING A LIGHT SNOW/RAIN MIX AS COLUMN SATURATES FURTHER. I`VE
MENTIONED P-TYPE AT RUT BUT KEPT IT TO VCSH ELSEWHERE AS RUT HAS
THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH 06Z.
SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE-12Z WED...MOSTLY MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-06Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE.

06Z THU-18Z THU...INITIAL MVFR/IFR DUE TO RAIN ALONG A SHARP COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE CHRISTMAS DAY BECOMING VFR/MVFR AS FRONT CLEARS.
SHARP WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST/NORTHWEST THRU THE DAY.

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 220522
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1222 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END WITH CLOUDS LINGERING
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY...BUT A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION
CHANGES TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ON
CHRISTMAS EVE ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 919 PM EST SUNDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO CLOUDS AS OF 9 PM
TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. ONLY NOTICEABLE CHANGE
WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BY SOME 2-3 DEGREES
BASED OFF LATEST GUIDANCE AND TD VALUES. EARLIER MINS APPEARED
JUST A TAD TOO COOL. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND JUST A FEW STRAY FLURRIES HERE AND THERE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EST SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM WILL TAKE PLACE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING
ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
TAKING PLACE. THIS WILL SET UP A THERMAL PROFILE CONDUCIVE TO
MIXED PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT
NEVERTHELESS SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION
BECOMES ALL RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STEADIER RAIN AND WIND STILL
NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 357 PM EST SUNDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA
OF RAINY AND POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY INTO
THE MORNING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS DAY.

WEDNESDAY MORNING THE PRECIPITATION CHANCE INCREASES QUICKLY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE MIDWEST. A PULSE OF ENERGY
WILL SLIDE UP THE TROUGH AND THEN LIFT OVER THE NORTHEAST BRINGING
CATEGORICAL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THE
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE SHIFTING MORE TOWARDS
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THAT WILL CONTINUE THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE LOW LEVELS WHICH WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A PERSISTENT RAIN EVENT ON WEDNESDAY. THE LONG TERM
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED THE TREND OF WEAKENING THE 850MB JET OVER
THE REGION AND DEVELOP THE SYSTEM AS MORE OF A STRONG OPEN WAVE
INSTEAD OF A CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL STILL PROVIDE FOR CHANCES OF
30-40 MPH GUSTS BUT WITHOUT THE EASTERN COMPONENT THE CHANCES OF
STRONG DOWNSLOPE WIND GUSTS ARE WEAKENING. THE BIGGEST AREA OF
CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND PERHAPS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE
ADIRONDACKS.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM...WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL
AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
AMOUNTS WILL VARY A BIT DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS. HIGHEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG SOUTH FACING
SLOPES OF SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS  OVER
NORTHWEST VERMONT AND FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE COASTAL AREAS OF
NEW ENGLAND WOULD SEE MORE RAINFALL FOR THIS EVENT. FLOODING STILL
CONTINUES TO REMAIN A POTENTIAL ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S...AND LITTLE DROP OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF
RAIN AND MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THE
SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN SMALL STREAMS.
RIGHT NOW RIVER GAUGES ARE SHOWING RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE LOW...SO
WHILE SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DON`T EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING ISSUES.

RAIN CONTINUES EARLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY...THEN SOME DRYING EXPECTED WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS COLDER AIR RETURNS. TEMPS IN
VALLEYS REMAIN MILD THOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH READINGS IN
THE 40S.

DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS
A WEAK CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS, MOSTLY DUE TO
PERSISTENT STRATUS, TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAFS INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. INTERVALS OF MIST WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT MOST OF THE
TAFS GIVEN VERY LIGHT BL FLOW, SATURATED LOW-LEVELS AND WEAK
INVERSION. ANY MIST TO BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING. WINDS VERY LIGHT
TO CALM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST
GENERALLY 4-6 KNOTS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY

LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MAINLY AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. WHILE LOW- LEVELS REMAIN
SATURATED, EXPECT P-TYPE TO INIIALLY BE A LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE,
BECOMING A LIGHT SNOW/RAIN MIX AS COLUMN SATURATES FURTHER. I`VE
MENTIONED P-TYPE AT RUT BUT KEPT IT TO VCSH ELSEWHERE AS RUT HAS
THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH 06Z.
SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE-12Z WED...MOSTLY MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-06Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE.

06Z THU-18Z THU...INITIAL MVFR/IFR DUE TO RAIN ALONG A SHARP COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE CHRISTMAS DAY BECOMING VFR/MVFR AS FRONT CLEARS.
SHARP WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST/NORTHWEST THRU THE DAY.

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 220522
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1222 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END WITH CLOUDS LINGERING
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY...BUT A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION
CHANGES TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ON
CHRISTMAS EVE ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 919 PM EST SUNDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO CLOUDS AS OF 9 PM
TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. ONLY NOTICEABLE CHANGE
WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BY SOME 2-3 DEGREES
BASED OFF LATEST GUIDANCE AND TD VALUES. EARLIER MINS APPEARED
JUST A TAD TOO COOL. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND JUST A FEW STRAY FLURRIES HERE AND THERE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EST SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM WILL TAKE PLACE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING
ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
TAKING PLACE. THIS WILL SET UP A THERMAL PROFILE CONDUCIVE TO
MIXED PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT
NEVERTHELESS SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION
BECOMES ALL RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STEADIER RAIN AND WIND STILL
NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 357 PM EST SUNDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA
OF RAINY AND POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY INTO
THE MORNING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS DAY.

WEDNESDAY MORNING THE PRECIPITATION CHANCE INCREASES QUICKLY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE MIDWEST. A PULSE OF ENERGY
WILL SLIDE UP THE TROUGH AND THEN LIFT OVER THE NORTHEAST BRINGING
CATEGORICAL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THE
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE SHIFTING MORE TOWARDS
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THAT WILL CONTINUE THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE LOW LEVELS WHICH WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A PERSISTENT RAIN EVENT ON WEDNESDAY. THE LONG TERM
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED THE TREND OF WEAKENING THE 850MB JET OVER
THE REGION AND DEVELOP THE SYSTEM AS MORE OF A STRONG OPEN WAVE
INSTEAD OF A CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL STILL PROVIDE FOR CHANCES OF
30-40 MPH GUSTS BUT WITHOUT THE EASTERN COMPONENT THE CHANCES OF
STRONG DOWNSLOPE WIND GUSTS ARE WEAKENING. THE BIGGEST AREA OF
CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND PERHAPS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE
ADIRONDACKS.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM...WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL
AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
AMOUNTS WILL VARY A BIT DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS. HIGHEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG SOUTH FACING
SLOPES OF SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS  OVER
NORTHWEST VERMONT AND FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE COASTAL AREAS OF
NEW ENGLAND WOULD SEE MORE RAINFALL FOR THIS EVENT. FLOODING STILL
CONTINUES TO REMAIN A POTENTIAL ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S...AND LITTLE DROP OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF
RAIN AND MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THE
SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN SMALL STREAMS.
RIGHT NOW RIVER GAUGES ARE SHOWING RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE LOW...SO
WHILE SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DON`T EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING ISSUES.

RAIN CONTINUES EARLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY...THEN SOME DRYING EXPECTED WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS COLDER AIR RETURNS. TEMPS IN
VALLEYS REMAIN MILD THOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH READINGS IN
THE 40S.

DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS
A WEAK CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS, MOSTLY DUE TO
PERSISTENT STRATUS, TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAFS INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. INTERVALS OF MIST WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT MOST OF THE
TAFS GIVEN VERY LIGHT BL FLOW, SATURATED LOW-LEVELS AND WEAK
INVERSION. ANY MIST TO BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING. WINDS VERY LIGHT
TO CALM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST
GENERALLY 4-6 KNOTS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY

LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MAINLY AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. WHILE LOW- LEVELS REMAIN
SATURATED, EXPECT P-TYPE TO INIIALLY BE A LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE,
BECOMING A LIGHT SNOW/RAIN MIX AS COLUMN SATURATES FURTHER. I`VE
MENTIONED P-TYPE AT RUT BUT KEPT IT TO VCSH ELSEWHERE AS RUT HAS
THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH 06Z.
SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE-12Z WED...MOSTLY MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-06Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE.

06Z THU-18Z THU...INITIAL MVFR/IFR DUE TO RAIN ALONG A SHARP COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE CHRISTMAS DAY BECOMING VFR/MVFR AS FRONT CLEARS.
SHARP WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST/NORTHWEST THRU THE DAY.

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 220522
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1222 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END WITH CLOUDS LINGERING
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY...BUT A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION
CHANGES TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ON
CHRISTMAS EVE ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 919 PM EST SUNDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO CLOUDS AS OF 9 PM
TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. ONLY NOTICEABLE CHANGE
WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BY SOME 2-3 DEGREES
BASED OFF LATEST GUIDANCE AND TD VALUES. EARLIER MINS APPEARED
JUST A TAD TOO COOL. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND JUST A FEW STRAY FLURRIES HERE AND THERE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EST SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM WILL TAKE PLACE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING
ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
TAKING PLACE. THIS WILL SET UP A THERMAL PROFILE CONDUCIVE TO
MIXED PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT
NEVERTHELESS SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION
BECOMES ALL RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STEADIER RAIN AND WIND STILL
NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 357 PM EST SUNDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA
OF RAINY AND POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY INTO
THE MORNING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS DAY.

WEDNESDAY MORNING THE PRECIPITATION CHANCE INCREASES QUICKLY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE MIDWEST. A PULSE OF ENERGY
WILL SLIDE UP THE TROUGH AND THEN LIFT OVER THE NORTHEAST BRINGING
CATEGORICAL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THE
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE SHIFTING MORE TOWARDS
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THAT WILL CONTINUE THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE LOW LEVELS WHICH WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A PERSISTENT RAIN EVENT ON WEDNESDAY. THE LONG TERM
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED THE TREND OF WEAKENING THE 850MB JET OVER
THE REGION AND DEVELOP THE SYSTEM AS MORE OF A STRONG OPEN WAVE
INSTEAD OF A CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL STILL PROVIDE FOR CHANCES OF
30-40 MPH GUSTS BUT WITHOUT THE EASTERN COMPONENT THE CHANCES OF
STRONG DOWNSLOPE WIND GUSTS ARE WEAKENING. THE BIGGEST AREA OF
CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND PERHAPS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE
ADIRONDACKS.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM...WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL
AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
AMOUNTS WILL VARY A BIT DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS. HIGHEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG SOUTH FACING
SLOPES OF SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS  OVER
NORTHWEST VERMONT AND FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE COASTAL AREAS OF
NEW ENGLAND WOULD SEE MORE RAINFALL FOR THIS EVENT. FLOODING STILL
CONTINUES TO REMAIN A POTENTIAL ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S...AND LITTLE DROP OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF
RAIN AND MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THE
SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN SMALL STREAMS.
RIGHT NOW RIVER GAUGES ARE SHOWING RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE LOW...SO
WHILE SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DON`T EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING ISSUES.

RAIN CONTINUES EARLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY...THEN SOME DRYING EXPECTED WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS COLDER AIR RETURNS. TEMPS IN
VALLEYS REMAIN MILD THOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH READINGS IN
THE 40S.

DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS
A WEAK CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS, MOSTLY DUE TO
PERSISTENT STRATUS, TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAFS INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. INTERVALS OF MIST WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT MOST OF THE
TAFS GIVEN VERY LIGHT BL FLOW, SATURATED LOW-LEVELS AND WEAK
INVERSION. ANY MIST TO BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING. WINDS VERY LIGHT
TO CALM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST
GENERALLY 4-6 KNOTS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY

LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MAINLY AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. WHILE LOW- LEVELS REMAIN
SATURATED, EXPECT P-TYPE TO INIIALLY BE A LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE,
BECOMING A LIGHT SNOW/RAIN MIX AS COLUMN SATURATES FURTHER. I`VE
MENTIONED P-TYPE AT RUT BUT KEPT IT TO VCSH ELSEWHERE AS RUT HAS
THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH 06Z.
SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE-12Z WED...MOSTLY MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-06Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE.

06Z THU-18Z THU...INITIAL MVFR/IFR DUE TO RAIN ALONG A SHARP COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE CHRISTMAS DAY BECOMING VFR/MVFR AS FRONT CLEARS.
SHARP WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST/NORTHWEST THRU THE DAY.

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KALY 220514
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1214 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND QUEBEC WILL KEEP A MOIST LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION...WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS INTO MID WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND A BETTER CHANCE
FOR LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY
A STORM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTENSIFY RAPIDLY
AS IT MOVES NORTH TO THE OTTAWA VALLEY. IT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LITTLE LOW LEVEL FEATURE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND STILL SUPPORTING
SOME FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS IN NW CT AND THE BERKSHIRES...NOT
AT OBSERVATION SITES...BUT SOMEWHAT OF A DECREASE IN COVERAGE SEEN
ON RADAR...OF WHAT CAN BE DETECTED BY RADAR...WHICH IS NOT MUCH
BECAUSE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION IS BELOW THE RADAR BEAM.
SO...KEEPING FLURRIES IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...AND MAKING MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS MOISTURE
STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA AND
EVENTUALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA BY MORNING. PARTIAL THICKNESS
VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET MIXING IN. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH
OF A DROP FROM DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...FREEZING RAIN WILL LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH ALL RAIN FROM MID
MORNING TUESDAY ON ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

TUESDAY NIGHT A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. AS THE LOW
APPROACHES IT WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
SUCH THAT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS WET AND MILD TO START FOR CHRISTMAS
EVE...AND THEN BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR CHRISTMAS
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH PERHAPS SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CLOSE THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS HAVE MENTIONED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...A
POTENTIAL MULTI-HAZARD EVENT IS POSSIBLE WED INTO THU WITH A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WELL WEST OF THE REGION FROM THE TN
VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE CANADA.  THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING MILDER WX ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS...AND A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE.  ALSO STRONG S TO SW WINDS
AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING SFC CYCLONE ARE EXPECTED WED
INTO WED PM...AND A BAND OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.  THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS COUPLED WITH 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 24 HRS OR LESS...AND SNOW MELT COULD PRODUCE
SOME MINOR HYDRO ISSUES.  ALSO THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...AND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 970 HPA OR LOWER OVER WRN QUEBEC COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG W/NW WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS.

WED-WED NIGHT...INITIAL BURST OF RAINFALL DURING THE DAY ON WED WILL
BE WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285/290K SFC.  THE WARM FRONT
SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AN ANOMALOUS
SOUTHERLY LLJ JET OF 40-60 KTS AT H850 WILL ADVECT IN ANOMALOUS PWAT
VALUES OF 3 TO 5 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
GEFS.  THE +V-WIND ANOMALIES /SOUTHERLIES/ ARE 2 TO 3 STD DEVS ABOVE
NORMAL.  THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  H850 TEMPS RISE TO +10C TO
+12C IN THE WARM SECTOR.  THE NARROW COLD FRONT RAINBAND LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM BTWN
06Z-12Z/THU...AS THE CYCLONE DEEPENS AND INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES
N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY.  HIGH TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS EVE WILL BE IN THE
MID TO U50S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST /NEARLY 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/...AND M40S TO L50S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  AS
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN WED NIGHT...EXPECT SOME OF THE RAIN TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE SRN DACKS.  PERHAPS AN
INCH OR SO OF WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE.  LOWS CHRISTMAS MORNING WILL BE
IN THE MID TO U30S WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER TO
MID 40S FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EAST.

CHRISTMAS-CHRISTMAS NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER
WRN QUEBEC NEAR JAMES BAY.  SIGNIFICANT MSLP PRESSURE RISES WILL BE
OCCURRING OVER THE FCST AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.  BLUSTERY W/NW WINDS OF 15 TO 30
MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE DEEPER
MIXING AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT.  A WIND HEADLINE
MAY BE NEEDED HERE FOR PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.  SOME WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE WRN DACKS...AND WRN
GREENS.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M30S TO U40S FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA.  THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF CHRISTMAS NIGHT WITH
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS WEST OF THE TRI CITIES.  LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID 20S TO L30S.

FRI-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RIDGES IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE
MID LEVEL FLOW W/SW ALOFT.  A CLIPPER TYPE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SRN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY.  THIS SYSTEM LIFTS
N/NE INTO QUEBEC WITH SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.  SOME ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY GET INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  HIGH WILL BE IN
THE M30S TO M40S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO L30S.  HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COLDER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE L30S TO U30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO L40S
IN THE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...NORTHEAST AND EAST COAST.  THE GFS HAS WEAK
IMPULSES IN THE W/NW CYCLONIC FLOW FOCUSING LAKE EFFECT AND W/NW
UPSLOPE SNOWFALL.  THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
HANGING CLOSE TO THE COAST.  A COASTAL WAVE MOVES ALONG IT SUNDAY
FOR SOME SNOWFALL FOR MOST OF THE REGION.  A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS...SO A LOW CHC OF SNOWFALL WAS USED FOR THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA ON SUNDAY.  TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE FOR LATE DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRATUS DECK REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER MASSIVE INVERSIONS OVER FCA
WITH LITTLE CHANGE LIKELY THROHGH THE TAF PERIOD.  MAINLY MVFR
CIGS AND VSBY WITH WIDESPREAD HIR TRRN OBSCD. GRADUALLY LOWERING
CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR CONDS DVLPG. WK UVM ASSOC WITH
WK 500 HPA CUT OFF OVER RGN...AND LOW LVL ATLC MOISTURE INFLOW
WILL RESULT IN SCT -SHSN/ISOLD ZL OVER W NEW ENG AND SOUTHERN MOST
AREAS OF NYS. CONDS IN THESE AREAS COULD BCM WIDESPREAD IFR
OVERNIGHT.

ON MONDAY...LINGERING PATCHY -SN AND OR ZL WILL DIMINISH EARLY.
OTRW IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...FROM THE N TO NE AT LESS THAN 8 KT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT
SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...11/SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 220514
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1214 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND QUEBEC WILL KEEP A MOIST LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION...WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS INTO MID WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND A BETTER CHANCE
FOR LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY
A STORM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTENSIFY RAPIDLY
AS IT MOVES NORTH TO THE OTTAWA VALLEY. IT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LITTLE LOW LEVEL FEATURE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND STILL SUPPORTING
SOME FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS IN NW CT AND THE BERKSHIRES...NOT
AT OBSERVATION SITES...BUT SOMEWHAT OF A DECREASE IN COVERAGE SEEN
ON RADAR...OF WHAT CAN BE DETECTED BY RADAR...WHICH IS NOT MUCH
BECAUSE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION IS BELOW THE RADAR BEAM.
SO...KEEPING FLURRIES IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...AND MAKING MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS MOISTURE
STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA AND
EVENTUALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA BY MORNING. PARTIAL THICKNESS
VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET MIXING IN. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH
OF A DROP FROM DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...FREEZING RAIN WILL LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH ALL RAIN FROM MID
MORNING TUESDAY ON ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

TUESDAY NIGHT A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. AS THE LOW
APPROACHES IT WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
SUCH THAT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS WET AND MILD TO START FOR CHRISTMAS
EVE...AND THEN BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR CHRISTMAS
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH PERHAPS SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CLOSE THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS HAVE MENTIONED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...A
POTENTIAL MULTI-HAZARD EVENT IS POSSIBLE WED INTO THU WITH A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WELL WEST OF THE REGION FROM THE TN
VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE CANADA.  THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING MILDER WX ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS...AND A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE.  ALSO STRONG S TO SW WINDS
AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING SFC CYCLONE ARE EXPECTED WED
INTO WED PM...AND A BAND OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.  THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS COUPLED WITH 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 24 HRS OR LESS...AND SNOW MELT COULD PRODUCE
SOME MINOR HYDRO ISSUES.  ALSO THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...AND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 970 HPA OR LOWER OVER WRN QUEBEC COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG W/NW WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS.

WED-WED NIGHT...INITIAL BURST OF RAINFALL DURING THE DAY ON WED WILL
BE WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285/290K SFC.  THE WARM FRONT
SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AN ANOMALOUS
SOUTHERLY LLJ JET OF 40-60 KTS AT H850 WILL ADVECT IN ANOMALOUS PWAT
VALUES OF 3 TO 5 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
GEFS.  THE +V-WIND ANOMALIES /SOUTHERLIES/ ARE 2 TO 3 STD DEVS ABOVE
NORMAL.  THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  H850 TEMPS RISE TO +10C TO
+12C IN THE WARM SECTOR.  THE NARROW COLD FRONT RAINBAND LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM BTWN
06Z-12Z/THU...AS THE CYCLONE DEEPENS AND INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES
N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY.  HIGH TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS EVE WILL BE IN THE
MID TO U50S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST /NEARLY 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/...AND M40S TO L50S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  AS
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN WED NIGHT...EXPECT SOME OF THE RAIN TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE SRN DACKS.  PERHAPS AN
INCH OR SO OF WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE.  LOWS CHRISTMAS MORNING WILL BE
IN THE MID TO U30S WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER TO
MID 40S FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EAST.

CHRISTMAS-CHRISTMAS NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER
WRN QUEBEC NEAR JAMES BAY.  SIGNIFICANT MSLP PRESSURE RISES WILL BE
OCCURRING OVER THE FCST AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.  BLUSTERY W/NW WINDS OF 15 TO 30
MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE DEEPER
MIXING AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT.  A WIND HEADLINE
MAY BE NEEDED HERE FOR PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.  SOME WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE WRN DACKS...AND WRN
GREENS.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M30S TO U40S FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA.  THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF CHRISTMAS NIGHT WITH
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS WEST OF THE TRI CITIES.  LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID 20S TO L30S.

FRI-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RIDGES IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE
MID LEVEL FLOW W/SW ALOFT.  A CLIPPER TYPE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SRN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY.  THIS SYSTEM LIFTS
N/NE INTO QUEBEC WITH SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.  SOME ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY GET INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  HIGH WILL BE IN
THE M30S TO M40S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO L30S.  HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COLDER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE L30S TO U30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO L40S
IN THE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...NORTHEAST AND EAST COAST.  THE GFS HAS WEAK
IMPULSES IN THE W/NW CYCLONIC FLOW FOCUSING LAKE EFFECT AND W/NW
UPSLOPE SNOWFALL.  THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
HANGING CLOSE TO THE COAST.  A COASTAL WAVE MOVES ALONG IT SUNDAY
FOR SOME SNOWFALL FOR MOST OF THE REGION.  A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS...SO A LOW CHC OF SNOWFALL WAS USED FOR THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA ON SUNDAY.  TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE FOR LATE DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRATUS DECK REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER MASSIVE INVERSIONS OVER FCA
WITH LITTLE CHANGE LIKELY THROHGH THE TAF PERIOD.  MAINLY MVFR
CIGS AND VSBY WITH WIDESPREAD HIR TRRN OBSCD. GRADUALLY LOWERING
CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR CONDS DVLPG. WK UVM ASSOC WITH
WK 500 HPA CUT OFF OVER RGN...AND LOW LVL ATLC MOISTURE INFLOW
WILL RESULT IN SCT -SHSN/ISOLD ZL OVER W NEW ENG AND SOUTHERN MOST
AREAS OF NYS. CONDS IN THESE AREAS COULD BCM WIDESPREAD IFR
OVERNIGHT.

ON MONDAY...LINGERING PATCHY -SN AND OR ZL WILL DIMINISH EARLY.
OTRW IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...FROM THE N TO NE AT LESS THAN 8 KT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT
SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...11/SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 220514
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1214 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND QUEBEC WILL KEEP A MOIST LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION...WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS INTO MID WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND A BETTER CHANCE
FOR LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY
A STORM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTENSIFY RAPIDLY
AS IT MOVES NORTH TO THE OTTAWA VALLEY. IT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LITTLE LOW LEVEL FEATURE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND STILL SUPPORTING
SOME FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS IN NW CT AND THE BERKSHIRES...NOT
AT OBSERVATION SITES...BUT SOMEWHAT OF A DECREASE IN COVERAGE SEEN
ON RADAR...OF WHAT CAN BE DETECTED BY RADAR...WHICH IS NOT MUCH
BECAUSE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION IS BELOW THE RADAR BEAM.
SO...KEEPING FLURRIES IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...AND MAKING MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS MOISTURE
STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA AND
EVENTUALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA BY MORNING. PARTIAL THICKNESS
VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET MIXING IN. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH
OF A DROP FROM DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...FREEZING RAIN WILL LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH ALL RAIN FROM MID
MORNING TUESDAY ON ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

TUESDAY NIGHT A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. AS THE LOW
APPROACHES IT WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
SUCH THAT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS WET AND MILD TO START FOR CHRISTMAS
EVE...AND THEN BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR CHRISTMAS
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH PERHAPS SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CLOSE THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS HAVE MENTIONED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...A
POTENTIAL MULTI-HAZARD EVENT IS POSSIBLE WED INTO THU WITH A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WELL WEST OF THE REGION FROM THE TN
VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE CANADA.  THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING MILDER WX ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS...AND A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE.  ALSO STRONG S TO SW WINDS
AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING SFC CYCLONE ARE EXPECTED WED
INTO WED PM...AND A BAND OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.  THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS COUPLED WITH 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 24 HRS OR LESS...AND SNOW MELT COULD PRODUCE
SOME MINOR HYDRO ISSUES.  ALSO THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...AND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 970 HPA OR LOWER OVER WRN QUEBEC COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG W/NW WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS.

WED-WED NIGHT...INITIAL BURST OF RAINFALL DURING THE DAY ON WED WILL
BE WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285/290K SFC.  THE WARM FRONT
SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AN ANOMALOUS
SOUTHERLY LLJ JET OF 40-60 KTS AT H850 WILL ADVECT IN ANOMALOUS PWAT
VALUES OF 3 TO 5 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
GEFS.  THE +V-WIND ANOMALIES /SOUTHERLIES/ ARE 2 TO 3 STD DEVS ABOVE
NORMAL.  THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  H850 TEMPS RISE TO +10C TO
+12C IN THE WARM SECTOR.  THE NARROW COLD FRONT RAINBAND LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM BTWN
06Z-12Z/THU...AS THE CYCLONE DEEPENS AND INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES
N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY.  HIGH TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS EVE WILL BE IN THE
MID TO U50S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST /NEARLY 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/...AND M40S TO L50S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  AS
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN WED NIGHT...EXPECT SOME OF THE RAIN TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE SRN DACKS.  PERHAPS AN
INCH OR SO OF WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE.  LOWS CHRISTMAS MORNING WILL BE
IN THE MID TO U30S WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER TO
MID 40S FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EAST.

CHRISTMAS-CHRISTMAS NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER
WRN QUEBEC NEAR JAMES BAY.  SIGNIFICANT MSLP PRESSURE RISES WILL BE
OCCURRING OVER THE FCST AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.  BLUSTERY W/NW WINDS OF 15 TO 30
MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE DEEPER
MIXING AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT.  A WIND HEADLINE
MAY BE NEEDED HERE FOR PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.  SOME WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE WRN DACKS...AND WRN
GREENS.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M30S TO U40S FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA.  THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF CHRISTMAS NIGHT WITH
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS WEST OF THE TRI CITIES.  LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID 20S TO L30S.

FRI-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RIDGES IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE
MID LEVEL FLOW W/SW ALOFT.  A CLIPPER TYPE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SRN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY.  THIS SYSTEM LIFTS
N/NE INTO QUEBEC WITH SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.  SOME ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY GET INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  HIGH WILL BE IN
THE M30S TO M40S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO L30S.  HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COLDER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE L30S TO U30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO L40S
IN THE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...NORTHEAST AND EAST COAST.  THE GFS HAS WEAK
IMPULSES IN THE W/NW CYCLONIC FLOW FOCUSING LAKE EFFECT AND W/NW
UPSLOPE SNOWFALL.  THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
HANGING CLOSE TO THE COAST.  A COASTAL WAVE MOVES ALONG IT SUNDAY
FOR SOME SNOWFALL FOR MOST OF THE REGION.  A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS...SO A LOW CHC OF SNOWFALL WAS USED FOR THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA ON SUNDAY.  TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE FOR LATE DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRATUS DECK REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER MASSIVE INVERSIONS OVER FCA
WITH LITTLE CHANGE LIKELY THROHGH THE TAF PERIOD.  MAINLY MVFR
CIGS AND VSBY WITH WIDESPREAD HIR TRRN OBSCD. GRADUALLY LOWERING
CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR CONDS DVLPG. WK UVM ASSOC WITH
WK 500 HPA CUT OFF OVER RGN...AND LOW LVL ATLC MOISTURE INFLOW
WILL RESULT IN SCT -SHSN/ISOLD ZL OVER W NEW ENG AND SOUTHERN MOST
AREAS OF NYS. CONDS IN THESE AREAS COULD BCM WIDESPREAD IFR
OVERNIGHT.

ON MONDAY...LINGERING PATCHY -SN AND OR ZL WILL DIMINISH EARLY.
OTRW IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...FROM THE N TO NE AT LESS THAN 8 KT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT
SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...11/SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 220514
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1214 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND QUEBEC WILL KEEP A MOIST LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION...WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS INTO MID WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND A BETTER CHANCE
FOR LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY
A STORM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTENSIFY RAPIDLY
AS IT MOVES NORTH TO THE OTTAWA VALLEY. IT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LITTLE LOW LEVEL FEATURE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND STILL SUPPORTING
SOME FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS IN NW CT AND THE BERKSHIRES...NOT
AT OBSERVATION SITES...BUT SOMEWHAT OF A DECREASE IN COVERAGE SEEN
ON RADAR...OF WHAT CAN BE DETECTED BY RADAR...WHICH IS NOT MUCH
BECAUSE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION IS BELOW THE RADAR BEAM.
SO...KEEPING FLURRIES IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...AND MAKING MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS MOISTURE
STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA AND
EVENTUALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA BY MORNING. PARTIAL THICKNESS
VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET MIXING IN. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH
OF A DROP FROM DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...FREEZING RAIN WILL LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH ALL RAIN FROM MID
MORNING TUESDAY ON ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

TUESDAY NIGHT A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. AS THE LOW
APPROACHES IT WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
SUCH THAT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS WET AND MILD TO START FOR CHRISTMAS
EVE...AND THEN BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR CHRISTMAS
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH PERHAPS SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CLOSE THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS HAVE MENTIONED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...A
POTENTIAL MULTI-HAZARD EVENT IS POSSIBLE WED INTO THU WITH A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WELL WEST OF THE REGION FROM THE TN
VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE CANADA.  THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING MILDER WX ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS...AND A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE.  ALSO STRONG S TO SW WINDS
AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING SFC CYCLONE ARE EXPECTED WED
INTO WED PM...AND A BAND OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.  THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS COUPLED WITH 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 24 HRS OR LESS...AND SNOW MELT COULD PRODUCE
SOME MINOR HYDRO ISSUES.  ALSO THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...AND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 970 HPA OR LOWER OVER WRN QUEBEC COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG W/NW WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS.

WED-WED NIGHT...INITIAL BURST OF RAINFALL DURING THE DAY ON WED WILL
BE WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285/290K SFC.  THE WARM FRONT
SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AN ANOMALOUS
SOUTHERLY LLJ JET OF 40-60 KTS AT H850 WILL ADVECT IN ANOMALOUS PWAT
VALUES OF 3 TO 5 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
GEFS.  THE +V-WIND ANOMALIES /SOUTHERLIES/ ARE 2 TO 3 STD DEVS ABOVE
NORMAL.  THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  H850 TEMPS RISE TO +10C TO
+12C IN THE WARM SECTOR.  THE NARROW COLD FRONT RAINBAND LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM BTWN
06Z-12Z/THU...AS THE CYCLONE DEEPENS AND INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES
N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY.  HIGH TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS EVE WILL BE IN THE
MID TO U50S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST /NEARLY 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/...AND M40S TO L50S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  AS
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN WED NIGHT...EXPECT SOME OF THE RAIN TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE SRN DACKS.  PERHAPS AN
INCH OR SO OF WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE.  LOWS CHRISTMAS MORNING WILL BE
IN THE MID TO U30S WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER TO
MID 40S FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EAST.

CHRISTMAS-CHRISTMAS NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER
WRN QUEBEC NEAR JAMES BAY.  SIGNIFICANT MSLP PRESSURE RISES WILL BE
OCCURRING OVER THE FCST AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.  BLUSTERY W/NW WINDS OF 15 TO 30
MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE DEEPER
MIXING AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT.  A WIND HEADLINE
MAY BE NEEDED HERE FOR PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.  SOME WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE WRN DACKS...AND WRN
GREENS.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M30S TO U40S FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA.  THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF CHRISTMAS NIGHT WITH
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS WEST OF THE TRI CITIES.  LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID 20S TO L30S.

FRI-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RIDGES IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE
MID LEVEL FLOW W/SW ALOFT.  A CLIPPER TYPE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SRN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY.  THIS SYSTEM LIFTS
N/NE INTO QUEBEC WITH SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.  SOME ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY GET INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  HIGH WILL BE IN
THE M30S TO M40S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO L30S.  HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COLDER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE L30S TO U30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO L40S
IN THE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...NORTHEAST AND EAST COAST.  THE GFS HAS WEAK
IMPULSES IN THE W/NW CYCLONIC FLOW FOCUSING LAKE EFFECT AND W/NW
UPSLOPE SNOWFALL.  THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
HANGING CLOSE TO THE COAST.  A COASTAL WAVE MOVES ALONG IT SUNDAY
FOR SOME SNOWFALL FOR MOST OF THE REGION.  A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS...SO A LOW CHC OF SNOWFALL WAS USED FOR THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA ON SUNDAY.  TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE FOR LATE DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRATUS DECK REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER MASSIVE INVERSIONS OVER FCA
WITH LITTLE CHANGE LIKELY THROHGH THE TAF PERIOD.  MAINLY MVFR
CIGS AND VSBY WITH WIDESPREAD HIR TRRN OBSCD. GRADUALLY LOWERING
CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR CONDS DVLPG. WK UVM ASSOC WITH
WK 500 HPA CUT OFF OVER RGN...AND LOW LVL ATLC MOISTURE INFLOW
WILL RESULT IN SCT -SHSN/ISOLD ZL OVER W NEW ENG AND SOUTHERN MOST
AREAS OF NYS. CONDS IN THESE AREAS COULD BCM WIDESPREAD IFR
OVERNIGHT.

ON MONDAY...LINGERING PATCHY -SN AND OR ZL WILL DIMINISH EARLY.
OTRW IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...FROM THE N TO NE AT LESS THAN 8 KT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT
SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...11/SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/NAS







  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBUF 220501
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1201 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY AND PROVIDE ONE
MORE DAY OF DRY WEATHER. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ALONG WITH THE WARMTH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND PRODUCE RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR WET SNOW
SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM CONTINUES TO
REVOLVE AROUND THE EVER PRESENT LOW STRATUS AND ITS EVOLUTION.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWING THICK STRATUS DOMINATING
MOST OF THE REGION. NAM POINT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STEEP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
AROUND 3K FEET...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
STRATUS THROUGH TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT...SO EVEN IN AREAS NEAR LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A FEW
BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THE STRATUS WILL LIKELY MOVE BACK
IN OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE LITTLE DIURNAL RANGE WITH MOST AREAS
STAYING CLOUDY. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 20S IN MOST AREAS AND UPPER
TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

ON MONDAY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE. THE
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TO FINALLY ERODE THE
LOW STRATUS FROM THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE LAKE PLAINS WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. THE STRATUS MAY BE MORE DIFFICULT TO
DISLODGE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER...
FINGER LAKES...AND TUG HILL REGION WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN THE MID LEVELS
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WILL JUST BRING A MODEST INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL CLOUD WITH ANY LIGHT PRECIP REMAINING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BOOST
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES OVER RECENT DAYS...WITH UPPER 30S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND MID 30S ON THE HILLS AND NORTH COUNTRY.
SOME OF THE TYPICALLY WARMER LOCATIONS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY MAY
PUSH 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FOCUS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL BE ON A STORM EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES LATER TUESDAY THEN MERGE WITH
A NORTHERN STREAM LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON CHRISTMAS EVE.
THIS WILL BRING VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE TO AT TIMES
HEAVY RAINFALL ON CHRISTMAS EVE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
POSSIBLY STRONG WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

LEADING UP TO CHRISTMAS EVE THE WEATHER WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO ABOVE AVERAGE AND A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LIE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT INCREASING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WILL BRING OVERCAST SKIES WHILE
WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF A SHOWER ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK.
MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT BECOME FULLY SATURATED UNTIL LATE TUESDAY
WITH MUCH OF THE LIGHT SHOWERS BEFOREHAND DRYING UP BEFORE REACHING
THE GROUND. IT IS WORTH A MENTION THAT ANY PRECIP THAT COULD REACH
THE SURFACE EARLY TUESDAY WHEN TEMPS ARE STILL HOVERING NEAR
FREEZING MAY FALL AS A LIGHT WINTERY MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ESPECIALLY BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS WELL
ABOVE FREEZING SO PLAIN RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE HERE.

THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND +10C. MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THEN TEMPS PUSH WELL INTO THE 40S WITH AROUND 50 ALONG
THE LAKESHORES ON TUESDAY WITH A DOWNSLOPE SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE
ERIE SHORELINE.

ON CHRISTMAS EVE A PLUME OF MOISTURE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WILL SHIFT
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SURFACE LOW AS IT MERGES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. NAEFS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE OVER ONE INCH WHICH IS
NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN A 30 YEAR PWAT CLIMO. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S CHRISTMAS EVE SHOULD YIELD
SOME MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS MAY
ALSO HELP TO DRAG DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A 50 KNOT
850MB JET STREAKING OVERHEAD. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS AND
INCREASING WINDS...DOWNSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST SURFACE
TEMPS INTO THE 50S WITH A RUN AT 60 DEGREES FOR BUFFALO AND
ROCHESTER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THESE NUMBERS ARE 20+ DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL LATE DECEMBER HIGHS.

A SHARP COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW IS FAVORABLE
FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH THE FALLING
PRESSURES WITHIN THE LOW ALSO REQUIRED FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT. WINDS
OF 50-60 KNOTS WILL BE FOUND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WITH COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT HELPING TO MIX THESE STRONG WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. CIPS ANALOGS FOR THIS EVENT AND THE SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
LEAN TOWARD MAINLY A WESTERN NEW YORK EVENT POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS WELL INLAND
FROM THE LAKES. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 60 MPH EAST OF LAKE ERIE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY EVENTUALLY BRING THE NEED FOR A HIGH WIND
WATCH IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES SHIFTING ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW
YORK WHICH WILL ENSURE A GUSTY CHRISTMAS DAY. WINDS GUSTS INTO THE
40S SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST WIND ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY.

COLD AIR WILL ALSO WORK ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO MENTION THAT WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES THE SOURCE REGION OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC
BASED AND NOT ARCTIC BASED SO THIS LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL
BRING A REDUCED THREAT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY. 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK TO ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN -5C AND
-8C. THIS SHOULD ONLY ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL INTO THE
MID 30S WITH LOW 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LATEST FORECAST
CONTINUES TO REFLECT A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SOME LIMITED WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME WEAK
LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LINGERING POST FRONTAL
MOISTURE AND LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 5KFT
DURING THE DAY.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER BACK INTO THE MID 40S
AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAKER GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH LOOKS TO
BRING A SHOT OF WESTERN CANADIAN SOURCED AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR SATURDAY
THEN PLAIN SNOW SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPS BACK TO AROUND
FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WEAK SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW STRATUS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS IN MOST
AREAS. LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL INCREASE. THE DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP TO ERODE
THE STRATUS DECK ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING
OUT AND CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. STRATUS MAY LOCK IN LONGER ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND TUG
HILL REGION WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE DRIFTING
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY TUESDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE SOME ON MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THEN CROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
THURSDAY. THIS IS A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TRACK FOR STRONG WINDS
ON THE LOWER LAKES...WITH A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON
BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 220501
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1201 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY AND PROVIDE ONE
MORE DAY OF DRY WEATHER. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ALONG WITH THE WARMTH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND PRODUCE RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR WET SNOW
SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM CONTINUES TO
REVOLVE AROUND THE EVER PRESENT LOW STRATUS AND ITS EVOLUTION.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWING THICK STRATUS DOMINATING
MOST OF THE REGION. NAM POINT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STEEP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
AROUND 3K FEET...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
STRATUS THROUGH TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT...SO EVEN IN AREAS NEAR LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A FEW
BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THE STRATUS WILL LIKELY MOVE BACK
IN OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE LITTLE DIURNAL RANGE WITH MOST AREAS
STAYING CLOUDY. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 20S IN MOST AREAS AND UPPER
TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

ON MONDAY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE. THE
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TO FINALLY ERODE THE
LOW STRATUS FROM THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE LAKE PLAINS WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. THE STRATUS MAY BE MORE DIFFICULT TO
DISLODGE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER...
FINGER LAKES...AND TUG HILL REGION WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN THE MID LEVELS
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WILL JUST BRING A MODEST INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL CLOUD WITH ANY LIGHT PRECIP REMAINING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BOOST
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES OVER RECENT DAYS...WITH UPPER 30S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND MID 30S ON THE HILLS AND NORTH COUNTRY.
SOME OF THE TYPICALLY WARMER LOCATIONS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY MAY
PUSH 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FOCUS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL BE ON A STORM EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES LATER TUESDAY THEN MERGE WITH
A NORTHERN STREAM LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON CHRISTMAS EVE.
THIS WILL BRING VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE TO AT TIMES
HEAVY RAINFALL ON CHRISTMAS EVE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
POSSIBLY STRONG WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

LEADING UP TO CHRISTMAS EVE THE WEATHER WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO ABOVE AVERAGE AND A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LIE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT INCREASING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WILL BRING OVERCAST SKIES WHILE
WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF A SHOWER ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK.
MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT BECOME FULLY SATURATED UNTIL LATE TUESDAY
WITH MUCH OF THE LIGHT SHOWERS BEFOREHAND DRYING UP BEFORE REACHING
THE GROUND. IT IS WORTH A MENTION THAT ANY PRECIP THAT COULD REACH
THE SURFACE EARLY TUESDAY WHEN TEMPS ARE STILL HOVERING NEAR
FREEZING MAY FALL AS A LIGHT WINTERY MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ESPECIALLY BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS WELL
ABOVE FREEZING SO PLAIN RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE HERE.

THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND +10C. MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THEN TEMPS PUSH WELL INTO THE 40S WITH AROUND 50 ALONG
THE LAKESHORES ON TUESDAY WITH A DOWNSLOPE SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE
ERIE SHORELINE.

ON CHRISTMAS EVE A PLUME OF MOISTURE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WILL SHIFT
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SURFACE LOW AS IT MERGES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. NAEFS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE OVER ONE INCH WHICH IS
NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN A 30 YEAR PWAT CLIMO. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S CHRISTMAS EVE SHOULD YIELD
SOME MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS MAY
ALSO HELP TO DRAG DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A 50 KNOT
850MB JET STREAKING OVERHEAD. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS AND
INCREASING WINDS...DOWNSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST SURFACE
TEMPS INTO THE 50S WITH A RUN AT 60 DEGREES FOR BUFFALO AND
ROCHESTER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THESE NUMBERS ARE 20+ DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL LATE DECEMBER HIGHS.

A SHARP COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW IS FAVORABLE
FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH THE FALLING
PRESSURES WITHIN THE LOW ALSO REQUIRED FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT. WINDS
OF 50-60 KNOTS WILL BE FOUND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WITH COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT HELPING TO MIX THESE STRONG WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. CIPS ANALOGS FOR THIS EVENT AND THE SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
LEAN TOWARD MAINLY A WESTERN NEW YORK EVENT POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS WELL INLAND
FROM THE LAKES. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 60 MPH EAST OF LAKE ERIE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY EVENTUALLY BRING THE NEED FOR A HIGH WIND
WATCH IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES SHIFTING ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW
YORK WHICH WILL ENSURE A GUSTY CHRISTMAS DAY. WINDS GUSTS INTO THE
40S SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST WIND ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY.

COLD AIR WILL ALSO WORK ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO MENTION THAT WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES THE SOURCE REGION OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC
BASED AND NOT ARCTIC BASED SO THIS LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL
BRING A REDUCED THREAT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY. 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK TO ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN -5C AND
-8C. THIS SHOULD ONLY ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL INTO THE
MID 30S WITH LOW 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LATEST FORECAST
CONTINUES TO REFLECT A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SOME LIMITED WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME WEAK
LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LINGERING POST FRONTAL
MOISTURE AND LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 5KFT
DURING THE DAY.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER BACK INTO THE MID 40S
AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAKER GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH LOOKS TO
BRING A SHOT OF WESTERN CANADIAN SOURCED AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR SATURDAY
THEN PLAIN SNOW SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPS BACK TO AROUND
FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WEAK SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW STRATUS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS IN MOST
AREAS. LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL INCREASE. THE DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP TO ERODE
THE STRATUS DECK ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING
OUT AND CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. STRATUS MAY LOCK IN LONGER ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND TUG
HILL REGION WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE DRIFTING
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY TUESDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE SOME ON MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THEN CROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
THURSDAY. THIS IS A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TRACK FOR STRONG WINDS
ON THE LOWER LAKES...WITH A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON
BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 220501
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1201 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY AND PROVIDE ONE
MORE DAY OF DRY WEATHER. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ALONG WITH THE WARMTH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND PRODUCE RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR WET SNOW
SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM CONTINUES TO
REVOLVE AROUND THE EVER PRESENT LOW STRATUS AND ITS EVOLUTION.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWING THICK STRATUS DOMINATING
MOST OF THE REGION. NAM POINT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STEEP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
AROUND 3K FEET...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
STRATUS THROUGH TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT...SO EVEN IN AREAS NEAR LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A FEW
BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THE STRATUS WILL LIKELY MOVE BACK
IN OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE LITTLE DIURNAL RANGE WITH MOST AREAS
STAYING CLOUDY. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 20S IN MOST AREAS AND UPPER
TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

ON MONDAY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE. THE
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TO FINALLY ERODE THE
LOW STRATUS FROM THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE LAKE PLAINS WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. THE STRATUS MAY BE MORE DIFFICULT TO
DISLODGE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER...
FINGER LAKES...AND TUG HILL REGION WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN THE MID LEVELS
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WILL JUST BRING A MODEST INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL CLOUD WITH ANY LIGHT PRECIP REMAINING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BOOST
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES OVER RECENT DAYS...WITH UPPER 30S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND MID 30S ON THE HILLS AND NORTH COUNTRY.
SOME OF THE TYPICALLY WARMER LOCATIONS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY MAY
PUSH 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FOCUS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL BE ON A STORM EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES LATER TUESDAY THEN MERGE WITH
A NORTHERN STREAM LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON CHRISTMAS EVE.
THIS WILL BRING VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE TO AT TIMES
HEAVY RAINFALL ON CHRISTMAS EVE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
POSSIBLY STRONG WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

LEADING UP TO CHRISTMAS EVE THE WEATHER WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO ABOVE AVERAGE AND A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LIE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT INCREASING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WILL BRING OVERCAST SKIES WHILE
WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF A SHOWER ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK.
MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT BECOME FULLY SATURATED UNTIL LATE TUESDAY
WITH MUCH OF THE LIGHT SHOWERS BEFOREHAND DRYING UP BEFORE REACHING
THE GROUND. IT IS WORTH A MENTION THAT ANY PRECIP THAT COULD REACH
THE SURFACE EARLY TUESDAY WHEN TEMPS ARE STILL HOVERING NEAR
FREEZING MAY FALL AS A LIGHT WINTERY MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ESPECIALLY BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS WELL
ABOVE FREEZING SO PLAIN RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE HERE.

THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND +10C. MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THEN TEMPS PUSH WELL INTO THE 40S WITH AROUND 50 ALONG
THE LAKESHORES ON TUESDAY WITH A DOWNSLOPE SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE
ERIE SHORELINE.

ON CHRISTMAS EVE A PLUME OF MOISTURE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WILL SHIFT
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SURFACE LOW AS IT MERGES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. NAEFS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE OVER ONE INCH WHICH IS
NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN A 30 YEAR PWAT CLIMO. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S CHRISTMAS EVE SHOULD YIELD
SOME MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS MAY
ALSO HELP TO DRAG DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A 50 KNOT
850MB JET STREAKING OVERHEAD. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS AND
INCREASING WINDS...DOWNSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST SURFACE
TEMPS INTO THE 50S WITH A RUN AT 60 DEGREES FOR BUFFALO AND
ROCHESTER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THESE NUMBERS ARE 20+ DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL LATE DECEMBER HIGHS.

A SHARP COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW IS FAVORABLE
FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH THE FALLING
PRESSURES WITHIN THE LOW ALSO REQUIRED FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT. WINDS
OF 50-60 KNOTS WILL BE FOUND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WITH COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT HELPING TO MIX THESE STRONG WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. CIPS ANALOGS FOR THIS EVENT AND THE SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
LEAN TOWARD MAINLY A WESTERN NEW YORK EVENT POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS WELL INLAND
FROM THE LAKES. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 60 MPH EAST OF LAKE ERIE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY EVENTUALLY BRING THE NEED FOR A HIGH WIND
WATCH IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES SHIFTING ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW
YORK WHICH WILL ENSURE A GUSTY CHRISTMAS DAY. WINDS GUSTS INTO THE
40S SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST WIND ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY.

COLD AIR WILL ALSO WORK ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO MENTION THAT WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES THE SOURCE REGION OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC
BASED AND NOT ARCTIC BASED SO THIS LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL
BRING A REDUCED THREAT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY. 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK TO ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN -5C AND
-8C. THIS SHOULD ONLY ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL INTO THE
MID 30S WITH LOW 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LATEST FORECAST
CONTINUES TO REFLECT A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SOME LIMITED WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME WEAK
LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LINGERING POST FRONTAL
MOISTURE AND LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 5KFT
DURING THE DAY.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER BACK INTO THE MID 40S
AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAKER GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH LOOKS TO
BRING A SHOT OF WESTERN CANADIAN SOURCED AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR SATURDAY
THEN PLAIN SNOW SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPS BACK TO AROUND
FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WEAK SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW STRATUS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS IN MOST
AREAS. LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL INCREASE. THE DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP TO ERODE
THE STRATUS DECK ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING
OUT AND CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. STRATUS MAY LOCK IN LONGER ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND TUG
HILL REGION WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE DRIFTING
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY TUESDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE SOME ON MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THEN CROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
THURSDAY. THIS IS A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TRACK FOR STRONG WINDS
ON THE LOWER LAKES...WITH A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON
BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 220501
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1201 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY AND PROVIDE ONE
MORE DAY OF DRY WEATHER. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ALONG WITH THE WARMTH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND PRODUCE RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR WET SNOW
SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM CONTINUES TO
REVOLVE AROUND THE EVER PRESENT LOW STRATUS AND ITS EVOLUTION.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWING THICK STRATUS DOMINATING
MOST OF THE REGION. NAM POINT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STEEP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
AROUND 3K FEET...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
STRATUS THROUGH TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT...SO EVEN IN AREAS NEAR LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A FEW
BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THE STRATUS WILL LIKELY MOVE BACK
IN OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE LITTLE DIURNAL RANGE WITH MOST AREAS
STAYING CLOUDY. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 20S IN MOST AREAS AND UPPER
TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

ON MONDAY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE. THE
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TO FINALLY ERODE THE
LOW STRATUS FROM THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE LAKE PLAINS WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. THE STRATUS MAY BE MORE DIFFICULT TO
DISLODGE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER...
FINGER LAKES...AND TUG HILL REGION WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN THE MID LEVELS
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WILL JUST BRING A MODEST INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL CLOUD WITH ANY LIGHT PRECIP REMAINING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BOOST
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES OVER RECENT DAYS...WITH UPPER 30S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND MID 30S ON THE HILLS AND NORTH COUNTRY.
SOME OF THE TYPICALLY WARMER LOCATIONS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY MAY
PUSH 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FOCUS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL BE ON A STORM EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES LATER TUESDAY THEN MERGE WITH
A NORTHERN STREAM LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON CHRISTMAS EVE.
THIS WILL BRING VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE TO AT TIMES
HEAVY RAINFALL ON CHRISTMAS EVE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
POSSIBLY STRONG WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

LEADING UP TO CHRISTMAS EVE THE WEATHER WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO ABOVE AVERAGE AND A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LIE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT INCREASING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WILL BRING OVERCAST SKIES WHILE
WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF A SHOWER ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK.
MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT BECOME FULLY SATURATED UNTIL LATE TUESDAY
WITH MUCH OF THE LIGHT SHOWERS BEFOREHAND DRYING UP BEFORE REACHING
THE GROUND. IT IS WORTH A MENTION THAT ANY PRECIP THAT COULD REACH
THE SURFACE EARLY TUESDAY WHEN TEMPS ARE STILL HOVERING NEAR
FREEZING MAY FALL AS A LIGHT WINTERY MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ESPECIALLY BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS WELL
ABOVE FREEZING SO PLAIN RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE HERE.

THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND +10C. MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THEN TEMPS PUSH WELL INTO THE 40S WITH AROUND 50 ALONG
THE LAKESHORES ON TUESDAY WITH A DOWNSLOPE SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE
ERIE SHORELINE.

ON CHRISTMAS EVE A PLUME OF MOISTURE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WILL SHIFT
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SURFACE LOW AS IT MERGES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. NAEFS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE OVER ONE INCH WHICH IS
NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN A 30 YEAR PWAT CLIMO. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S CHRISTMAS EVE SHOULD YIELD
SOME MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS MAY
ALSO HELP TO DRAG DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A 50 KNOT
850MB JET STREAKING OVERHEAD. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS AND
INCREASING WINDS...DOWNSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST SURFACE
TEMPS INTO THE 50S WITH A RUN AT 60 DEGREES FOR BUFFALO AND
ROCHESTER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THESE NUMBERS ARE 20+ DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL LATE DECEMBER HIGHS.

A SHARP COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW IS FAVORABLE
FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH THE FALLING
PRESSURES WITHIN THE LOW ALSO REQUIRED FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT. WINDS
OF 50-60 KNOTS WILL BE FOUND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WITH COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT HELPING TO MIX THESE STRONG WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. CIPS ANALOGS FOR THIS EVENT AND THE SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
LEAN TOWARD MAINLY A WESTERN NEW YORK EVENT POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS WELL INLAND
FROM THE LAKES. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 60 MPH EAST OF LAKE ERIE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY EVENTUALLY BRING THE NEED FOR A HIGH WIND
WATCH IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES SHIFTING ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW
YORK WHICH WILL ENSURE A GUSTY CHRISTMAS DAY. WINDS GUSTS INTO THE
40S SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST WIND ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY.

COLD AIR WILL ALSO WORK ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO MENTION THAT WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES THE SOURCE REGION OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC
BASED AND NOT ARCTIC BASED SO THIS LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL
BRING A REDUCED THREAT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY. 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK TO ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN -5C AND
-8C. THIS SHOULD ONLY ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL INTO THE
MID 30S WITH LOW 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LATEST FORECAST
CONTINUES TO REFLECT A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SOME LIMITED WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME WEAK
LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LINGERING POST FRONTAL
MOISTURE AND LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 5KFT
DURING THE DAY.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER BACK INTO THE MID 40S
AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAKER GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH LOOKS TO
BRING A SHOT OF WESTERN CANADIAN SOURCED AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR SATURDAY
THEN PLAIN SNOW SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPS BACK TO AROUND
FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WEAK SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW STRATUS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS IN MOST
AREAS. LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL INCREASE. THE DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP TO ERODE
THE STRATUS DECK ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING
OUT AND CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. STRATUS MAY LOCK IN LONGER ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND TUG
HILL REGION WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE DRIFTING
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY TUESDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE SOME ON MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THEN CROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
THURSDAY. THIS IS A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TRACK FOR STRONG WINDS
ON THE LOWER LAKES...WITH A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON
BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KOKX 220457
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1157 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS WHILE MOVING NORTH TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY WITH A COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH DRY SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN OVER LONG ISLAND BEGINNING TO MOVE TO THE
NORTH...AND EVEN SPREADING TO THE WEST A BIT. ANY RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE LIGHT...AND WITH PRECIP MOVING INTO AREA OF COLDER
AIR...RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW. GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH
TEMPS SLOWLY FALLING...ANY PRECIP MAY FREEZE ON THE ROAD SURFACES.

OTHERWISE...IF MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW...VERY
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL BE THE RESULT.

HOWEVER...COMPLICATING THINGS IS THAT TEMPS THROUGH 850 HPA OR SO
WARM SLIGHTLY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. SO EVEN IF MOISTURE IS DEEP
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW PRODUCING PROCESSES...ANY PRECIP MAY
CHANGE OVER THE RAIN ANYWAY AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

CLOUDS LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THESE LOW CLOUDS
COULD BREAK UP SOMEWHAT AS RIDGE BUILDS.

TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF LATEST MOS AND FORECAST DATABASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AHEAD OF DIGGING MID WEST TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A WARM FRONT OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC...DRIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA.

WEAK LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DO NOT EXPECT REAL HIGH COVERAGE AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 30S MONDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST. THESE TEMPS LIKELY
REMAIN STEADY MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO EAST FLOW AND CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ALL GUIDANCE DOES NOT MAINTAIN A CLOSED
CIRCULATION AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OTHERWISE THERE IS GENERALLY
CONSISTENCY WITH THE MIDWESTERN LOW DEEPENING AND TRACKING NORTHWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FULL LATITUDE UPPER
TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. ONLY CHANGE HAS BEEN A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
COME THROUGH JUST AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...AND CLEAR THE EASTERN ZONES
JUST AFTER 12Z CHRISTMAS DAY. ALSO...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF PROFILES
ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE
EVENT.

WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
STRONG LIFT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. ALSO THERE
WILL BE A DEEP INFLUX OF GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. UP TO 2 INCHES WILL LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION.

IN THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY WINDS AND GUSTS INCREASE
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY. THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO NOW BE DRY.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES LATER SATURDAY AND TRACKS NORTH SUNDAY BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THE STORM WILL BE INLAND AND THE AREA WILL
BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH AN INVERSION WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MON...WITH EVEN SOME LOCATIONS BEING IFR. HOWEVER...THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF CONDS DROPPING TO IFR.

POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE/SNOW WILL POSSIBLE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF...MOSTLY EAST OF
THE NYC TERMINALS.

A WEAK NLY FLOW AT LESS THAN 10 KT GRADUALLY VEERS AROUND TO E/NE
BY MON AFT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MON NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE IN E FLOW AND RAIN.
.TUE-TUE NIGHT...IFR LIKELY IN RAIN. E WINDS 10-20 KT...BECOMING
SE.
.WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT BECMG LIKELY. IFR WITH +RA. S/SE WINDS
15-20G20-25KT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW LATE WED NIGHT.
.THU...VFR CONDS RETURNING BY AFTN. -SHRA IN THE MORNING. W WINDS
15-20G25-35KT.
.FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT...SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS. A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND DRIFTS NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE WATERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. EAST WINDS INCREASE
SLIGHTLY BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

SEAS REMAIN 4 FT OR LESS OVER THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW INTO TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. WIND AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WIND AND GUSTS WILL
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. THEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE WIND GUSTS ON THE OCEAN INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WIND SHIFTS
TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND BECOMES VERY GUSTY IN THE COLDER AIR.
GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS ALL THE WATERS DURING
THURSDAY AND THEN SUBSIDE TO BELOW GALE FORCE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT DURING FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH DRY SATURDAY...AND WIND AND SEA ARE
LIKELY TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVEL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY
JUST LIGHT AMOUNTS.

RAINFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING COULD TOTAL
1 1/2 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/PW
NEAR TERM...JP/MPS
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...
MARINE...MET/PW
HYDROLOGY...MET/PW









000
FXUS61 KOKX 220457
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1157 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS WHILE MOVING NORTH TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY WITH A COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH DRY SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN OVER LONG ISLAND BEGINNING TO MOVE TO THE
NORTH...AND EVEN SPREADING TO THE WEST A BIT. ANY RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE LIGHT...AND WITH PRECIP MOVING INTO AREA OF COLDER
AIR...RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW. GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH
TEMPS SLOWLY FALLING...ANY PRECIP MAY FREEZE ON THE ROAD SURFACES.

OTHERWISE...IF MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW...VERY
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL BE THE RESULT.

HOWEVER...COMPLICATING THINGS IS THAT TEMPS THROUGH 850 HPA OR SO
WARM SLIGHTLY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. SO EVEN IF MOISTURE IS DEEP
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW PRODUCING PROCESSES...ANY PRECIP MAY
CHANGE OVER THE RAIN ANYWAY AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

CLOUDS LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THESE LOW CLOUDS
COULD BREAK UP SOMEWHAT AS RIDGE BUILDS.

TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF LATEST MOS AND FORECAST DATABASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AHEAD OF DIGGING MID WEST TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A WARM FRONT OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC...DRIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA.

WEAK LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DO NOT EXPECT REAL HIGH COVERAGE AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 30S MONDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST. THESE TEMPS LIKELY
REMAIN STEADY MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO EAST FLOW AND CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ALL GUIDANCE DOES NOT MAINTAIN A CLOSED
CIRCULATION AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OTHERWISE THERE IS GENERALLY
CONSISTENCY WITH THE MIDWESTERN LOW DEEPENING AND TRACKING NORTHWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FULL LATITUDE UPPER
TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. ONLY CHANGE HAS BEEN A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
COME THROUGH JUST AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...AND CLEAR THE EASTERN ZONES
JUST AFTER 12Z CHRISTMAS DAY. ALSO...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF PROFILES
ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE
EVENT.

WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
STRONG LIFT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. ALSO THERE
WILL BE A DEEP INFLUX OF GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. UP TO 2 INCHES WILL LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION.

IN THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY WINDS AND GUSTS INCREASE
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY. THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO NOW BE DRY.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES LATER SATURDAY AND TRACKS NORTH SUNDAY BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THE STORM WILL BE INLAND AND THE AREA WILL
BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH AN INVERSION WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MON...WITH EVEN SOME LOCATIONS BEING IFR. HOWEVER...THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF CONDS DROPPING TO IFR.

POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE/SNOW WILL POSSIBLE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF...MOSTLY EAST OF
THE NYC TERMINALS.

A WEAK NLY FLOW AT LESS THAN 10 KT GRADUALLY VEERS AROUND TO E/NE
BY MON AFT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MON NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE IN E FLOW AND RAIN.
.TUE-TUE NIGHT...IFR LIKELY IN RAIN. E WINDS 10-20 KT...BECOMING
SE.
.WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT BECMG LIKELY. IFR WITH +RA. S/SE WINDS
15-20G20-25KT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW LATE WED NIGHT.
.THU...VFR CONDS RETURNING BY AFTN. -SHRA IN THE MORNING. W WINDS
15-20G25-35KT.
.FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT...SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS. A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND DRIFTS NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE WATERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. EAST WINDS INCREASE
SLIGHTLY BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

SEAS REMAIN 4 FT OR LESS OVER THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW INTO TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. WIND AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WIND AND GUSTS WILL
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. THEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE WIND GUSTS ON THE OCEAN INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WIND SHIFTS
TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND BECOMES VERY GUSTY IN THE COLDER AIR.
GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS ALL THE WATERS DURING
THURSDAY AND THEN SUBSIDE TO BELOW GALE FORCE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT DURING FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH DRY SATURDAY...AND WIND AND SEA ARE
LIKELY TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVEL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY
JUST LIGHT AMOUNTS.

RAINFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING COULD TOTAL
1 1/2 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/PW
NEAR TERM...JP/MPS
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...
MARINE...MET/PW
HYDROLOGY...MET/PW










000
FXUS61 KOKX 220305 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1005 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTHEAST
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.
THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS WHILE MOVING NORTH TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY WITH A COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH DRY SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND WILL MOVE WEST
SOUTHWEST AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME SNOW MAY MIX
IN WITH THESE SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY
MINOR CHANGES.

CHALLENGING FORECAST DUE TO SUBTLE WEAK FEATURES...AND AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AS UPPER SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST...WITH RIDGING EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. SFC TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN ZONES LINGERS INTO TONIGHT...AND GLOBAL MODELS DO OUTPUT
LIGHT QPF THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.

IF PRECIP DOES INDEED OCCUR...THIS MAY BECOME PROBLEMATIC WITH
REGARD TO PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECASTING.

SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.
AS MENTIONED...MOISTURE IS RATHER SHALLOW...AND THERE IS A CONCERN
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
THAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIQUID. IF SO...SCATTERED SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE
COULD FREEZE ON CONTACT WITH THE COLD SURFACE WHERE TEMPS FALL
BELOW THE FREEZING MARK.

OTHERWISE...IF MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW...VERY
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL BE THE RESULT.

HOWEVER...COMPLICATING THINGS IS THAT TEMPS THROUGH 850 HPA OR SO
WARM SLIGHTLY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. SO EVEN IF MOISTURE IS DEEP
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW PRODUCING PROCESSES...ANY PRECIP MAY
CHANGE OVER THE RAIN ANYWAY AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

OTHERWISE...CLOUDS LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THESE LOW
CLOUDS COULD BREAK UP SOMEWHAT AS RIDGE BUILDS.

TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF LATEST MOS AND FORECAST DATABASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AHEAD OF DIGGING MID WEST TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A WARM FRONT OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC...DRIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA.

WEAK LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DO NOT EXPECT REAL HIGH COVERAGE AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 30S MONDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST. THESE TEMPS LIKELY
REMAIN STEADY MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO EAST FLOW AND CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ALL GUIDANCE DOES NOT MAINTAIN A CLOSED
CIRCULATION AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OTHERWISE THERE IS GENERALLY
CONSISTENCY WITH THE MIDWESTERN LOW DEEPENING AND TRACKING NORTHWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FULL LATITUDE UPPER
TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. ONLY CHANGE HAS BEEN A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
COME THROUGH JUST AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...AND CLEAR THE EASTERN ZONES
JUST AFTER 12Z CHRISTMAS DAY. ALSO...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF PROFILES
ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE
EVENT.

WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
STRONG LIFT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. ALSO THERE
WILL BE A DEEP INFLUX OF GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. UP TO 2 INCHES WILL LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION.

IN THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY WINDS AND GUSTS INCREASE
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY. THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO NOW BE DRY.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES LATER SATURDAY AND TRACKS NORTH SUNDAY BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THE STORM WILL BE INLAND AND THE AREA WILL
BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH AN INVERSION WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MON...WITH EVEN SOME LOCATIONS BEING IFR. HOWEVER...THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF CONDS DROPPING TO IFR.

POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE/SNOW WILL POSSIBLE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF...MOSTLY EAST OF
THE NYC TERMINALS.

A WEAK NLY FLOW AT LESS THAN 10 KT GRADUALLY VEERS AROUND TO E/NE
BY MON AFT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MON NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE IN E FLOW AND RAIN.
.TUE-TUE NIGHT...IFR LIKELY IN RAIN. E WINDS 10-20 KT...BECOMING
SE.
.WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT BECMG LIKELY. IFR WITH +RA. S/SE WINDS
15-20G20-25KT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW LATE WED NIGHT.
.THU...VFR CONDS RETURNING BY AFTN. -SHRA IN THE MORNING. W WINDS
15-20G25-35KT.
.FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT...SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS. A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND DRIFTS NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE WATERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. EAST WINDS INCREASE
SLIGHTLY BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

SEAS REMAIN 4 FT OR LESS OVER THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW INTO TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. WIND AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WIND AND GUSTS WILL
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. THEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE WIND GUSTS ON THE OCEAN INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WIND SHIFTS
TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND BECOMES VERY GUSTY IN THE COLDER AIR.
GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS ALL THE WATERS DURING
THURSDAY AND THEN SUBSIDE TO BELOW GALE FORCE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT DURING FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH DRY SATURDAY...AND WIND AND SEA ARE
LIKELY TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVEL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY
JUST LIGHT AMOUNTS.

RAINFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING COULD TOTAL
1 1/2 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/PW
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...
MARINE...MET/PW
HYDROLOGY...MET/PW









000
FXUS61 KOKX 220305 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1005 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTHEAST
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.
THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS WHILE MOVING NORTH TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY WITH A COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH DRY SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND WILL MOVE WEST
SOUTHWEST AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME SNOW MAY MIX
IN WITH THESE SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY
MINOR CHANGES.

CHALLENGING FORECAST DUE TO SUBTLE WEAK FEATURES...AND AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AS UPPER SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST...WITH RIDGING EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. SFC TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN ZONES LINGERS INTO TONIGHT...AND GLOBAL MODELS DO OUTPUT
LIGHT QPF THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.

IF PRECIP DOES INDEED OCCUR...THIS MAY BECOME PROBLEMATIC WITH
REGARD TO PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECASTING.

SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.
AS MENTIONED...MOISTURE IS RATHER SHALLOW...AND THERE IS A CONCERN
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
THAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIQUID. IF SO...SCATTERED SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE
COULD FREEZE ON CONTACT WITH THE COLD SURFACE WHERE TEMPS FALL
BELOW THE FREEZING MARK.

OTHERWISE...IF MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW...VERY
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL BE THE RESULT.

HOWEVER...COMPLICATING THINGS IS THAT TEMPS THROUGH 850 HPA OR SO
WARM SLIGHTLY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. SO EVEN IF MOISTURE IS DEEP
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW PRODUCING PROCESSES...ANY PRECIP MAY
CHANGE OVER THE RAIN ANYWAY AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

OTHERWISE...CLOUDS LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THESE LOW
CLOUDS COULD BREAK UP SOMEWHAT AS RIDGE BUILDS.

TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF LATEST MOS AND FORECAST DATABASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AHEAD OF DIGGING MID WEST TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A WARM FRONT OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC...DRIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA.

WEAK LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DO NOT EXPECT REAL HIGH COVERAGE AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 30S MONDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST. THESE TEMPS LIKELY
REMAIN STEADY MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO EAST FLOW AND CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ALL GUIDANCE DOES NOT MAINTAIN A CLOSED
CIRCULATION AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OTHERWISE THERE IS GENERALLY
CONSISTENCY WITH THE MIDWESTERN LOW DEEPENING AND TRACKING NORTHWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FULL LATITUDE UPPER
TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. ONLY CHANGE HAS BEEN A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
COME THROUGH JUST AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...AND CLEAR THE EASTERN ZONES
JUST AFTER 12Z CHRISTMAS DAY. ALSO...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF PROFILES
ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE
EVENT.

WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
STRONG LIFT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. ALSO THERE
WILL BE A DEEP INFLUX OF GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. UP TO 2 INCHES WILL LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION.

IN THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY WINDS AND GUSTS INCREASE
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY. THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO NOW BE DRY.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES LATER SATURDAY AND TRACKS NORTH SUNDAY BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THE STORM WILL BE INLAND AND THE AREA WILL
BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH AN INVERSION WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MON...WITH EVEN SOME LOCATIONS BEING IFR. HOWEVER...THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF CONDS DROPPING TO IFR.

POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE/SNOW WILL POSSIBLE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF...MOSTLY EAST OF
THE NYC TERMINALS.

A WEAK NLY FLOW AT LESS THAN 10 KT GRADUALLY VEERS AROUND TO E/NE
BY MON AFT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MON NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE IN E FLOW AND RAIN.
.TUE-TUE NIGHT...IFR LIKELY IN RAIN. E WINDS 10-20 KT...BECOMING
SE.
.WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT BECMG LIKELY. IFR WITH +RA. S/SE WINDS
15-20G20-25KT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW LATE WED NIGHT.
.THU...VFR CONDS RETURNING BY AFTN. -SHRA IN THE MORNING. W WINDS
15-20G25-35KT.
.FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT...SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS. A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND DRIFTS NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE WATERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. EAST WINDS INCREASE
SLIGHTLY BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

SEAS REMAIN 4 FT OR LESS OVER THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW INTO TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. WIND AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WIND AND GUSTS WILL
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. THEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE WIND GUSTS ON THE OCEAN INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WIND SHIFTS
TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND BECOMES VERY GUSTY IN THE COLDER AIR.
GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS ALL THE WATERS DURING
THURSDAY AND THEN SUBSIDE TO BELOW GALE FORCE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT DURING FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH DRY SATURDAY...AND WIND AND SEA ARE
LIKELY TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVEL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY
JUST LIGHT AMOUNTS.

RAINFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING COULD TOTAL
1 1/2 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/PW
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...
MARINE...MET/PW
HYDROLOGY...MET/PW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 220303
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1003 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTHEAST
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.
THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS WHILE MOVING NORTH TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY WITH A COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH DRY SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND WILL MOVE WEST
SOUTHWEST AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME SNOW MAY MIX
IN WITH THESE SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY
MINOR CHANGES.

CHALLENGING FORECAST DUE TO SUBTLE WEAK FEATURES...AND AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AS UPPER SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST...WITH RIDGING EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. SFC TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN ZONES LINGERS INTO TONIGHT...AND GLOBAL MODELS DO OUTPUT
LIGHT QPF THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.

IF PRECIP DOES INDEED OCCUR...THIS MAY BECOME PROBLEMATIC WITH
REGARD TO PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECASTING.

SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.
AS MENTIONED...MOISTURE IS RATHER SHALLOW...AND THERE IS A CONCERN
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
THAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIQUID. IF SO...SCATTERED SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE
COULD FREEZE ON CONTACT WITH THE COLD SURFACE WHERE TEMPS FALL
BELOW THE FREEZING MARK.

OTHERWISE...IF MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW...VERY
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL BE THE RESULT.

HOWEVER...COMPLICATING THINGS IS THAT TEMPS THROUGH 850 HPA OR SO
WARM SLIGHTLY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. SO EVEN IF MOISTURE IS DEEP
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW PRODUCING PROCESSES...ANY PRECIP MAY
CHANGE OVER THE RAIN ANYWAY AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

OTHERWISE...CLOUDS LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THESE LOW
CLOUDS COULD BREAK UP SOMEWHAT AS RIDGE BUILDS.

TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF LATEST MOS AND FORECAST DATABASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AHEAD OF DIGGING MID WEST TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A WARM FRONT OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC...DRIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA.

WEAK LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DO NOT EXPECT REAL HIGH COVERAGE AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 30S MONDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST. THESE TEMPS LIKELY
REMAIN STEADY MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO EAST FLOW AND CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ALL GUIDANCE DOES NOT MAINTAIN A CLOSED
CIRCULATION AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OTHERWISE THERE IS GENERALLY
CONSISTENCY WITH THE MIDWESTERN LOW DEEPENING AND TRACKING NORTHWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FULL LATITUDE UPPER
TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. ONLY CHANGE HAS BEEN A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
COME THROUGH JUST AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...AND CLEAR THE EASTERN ZONES
JUST AFTER 12Z CHRISTMAS DAY. ALSO...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF PROFILES
ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE
EVENT.

WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
STRONG LIFT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. ALSO THERE
WILL BE A DEEP INFLUX OF GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. UP TO 2 INCHES WILL LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION.

IN THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY WINDS AND GUSTS INCREASE
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY. THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO NOW BE DRY.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES LATER SATURDAY AND TRACKS NORTH SUNDAY BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THE STORM WILL BE INLAND AND THE AREA WILL
BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH AN INVERSION WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MON...WITH EVEN SOME LOCATIONS BEING IFR. LATEST SAT
IMAGERY IS INDICATING SOME OF SLIGHT CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA...SO
CONDS MAY TEMPO INCREASE TO VFR FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVE. THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO COME BACK DOWN HOWEVER. THERE IS ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING OF CONDS DROPPING TO IFR.

POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE/SNOW WILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING
DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF...MOSTLY EAST OF THE NYC TERMINALS.

A WEAK NLY FLOW AT LESS THAN 10 KT GRADUALLY VEERS AROUND TO E/NE
BY MON AFT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MON NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE IN E FLOW AND RAIN.
.TUE-TUE NIGHT...IFR LIKELY IN RAIN. E WINDS 10-20 KT...BECOMING
SE.
.WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT BECMG LIKELY. IFR WITH +RA. S/SE WINDS
15-20G20-25KT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW LATE WED NIGHT.
.THU...VFR CONDS RETURNING BY AFTN. -SHRA IN THE MORNING. W WINDS
15-20G25-35KT.
.FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT...SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS. A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND DRIFTS NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE WATERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. EAST WINDS INCREASE
SLIGHTLY BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

SEAS REMAIN 4 FT OR LESS OVER THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW INTO TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. WIND AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WIND AND GUSTS WILL
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. THEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE WIND GUSTS ON THE OCEAN INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WIND SHIFTS
TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND BECOMES VERY GUSTY IN THE COLDER AIR.
GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS ALL THE WATERS DURING
THURSDAY AND THEN SUBSIDE TO BELOW GALE FORCE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT DURING FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH DRY SATURDAY...AND WIND AND SEA ARE
LIKELY TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVEL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY
JUST LIGHT AMOUNTS.

RAINFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING COULD TOTAL
1 1/2 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/PW
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...
MARINE...MET/PW
HYDROLOGY...MET/PW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 220303
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1003 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTHEAST
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.
THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS WHILE MOVING NORTH TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY WITH A COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH DRY SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND WILL MOVE WEST
SOUTHWEST AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME SNOW MAY MIX
IN WITH THESE SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY
MINOR CHANGES.

CHALLENGING FORECAST DUE TO SUBTLE WEAK FEATURES...AND AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AS UPPER SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST...WITH RIDGING EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. SFC TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN ZONES LINGERS INTO TONIGHT...AND GLOBAL MODELS DO OUTPUT
LIGHT QPF THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.

IF PRECIP DOES INDEED OCCUR...THIS MAY BECOME PROBLEMATIC WITH
REGARD TO PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECASTING.

SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.
AS MENTIONED...MOISTURE IS RATHER SHALLOW...AND THERE IS A CONCERN
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
THAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIQUID. IF SO...SCATTERED SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE
COULD FREEZE ON CONTACT WITH THE COLD SURFACE WHERE TEMPS FALL
BELOW THE FREEZING MARK.

OTHERWISE...IF MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW...VERY
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL BE THE RESULT.

HOWEVER...COMPLICATING THINGS IS THAT TEMPS THROUGH 850 HPA OR SO
WARM SLIGHTLY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. SO EVEN IF MOISTURE IS DEEP
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW PRODUCING PROCESSES...ANY PRECIP MAY
CHANGE OVER THE RAIN ANYWAY AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

OTHERWISE...CLOUDS LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THESE LOW
CLOUDS COULD BREAK UP SOMEWHAT AS RIDGE BUILDS.

TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF LATEST MOS AND FORECAST DATABASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AHEAD OF DIGGING MID WEST TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A WARM FRONT OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC...DRIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA.

WEAK LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DO NOT EXPECT REAL HIGH COVERAGE AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 30S MONDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST. THESE TEMPS LIKELY
REMAIN STEADY MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO EAST FLOW AND CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ALL GUIDANCE DOES NOT MAINTAIN A CLOSED
CIRCULATION AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OTHERWISE THERE IS GENERALLY
CONSISTENCY WITH THE MIDWESTERN LOW DEEPENING AND TRACKING NORTHWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FULL LATITUDE UPPER
TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. ONLY CHANGE HAS BEEN A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
COME THROUGH JUST AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...AND CLEAR THE EASTERN ZONES
JUST AFTER 12Z CHRISTMAS DAY. ALSO...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF PROFILES
ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE
EVENT.

WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
STRONG LIFT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. ALSO THERE
WILL BE A DEEP INFLUX OF GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. UP TO 2 INCHES WILL LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION.

IN THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY WINDS AND GUSTS INCREASE
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY. THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO NOW BE DRY.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES LATER SATURDAY AND TRACKS NORTH SUNDAY BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THE STORM WILL BE INLAND AND THE AREA WILL
BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH AN INVERSION WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MON...WITH EVEN SOME LOCATIONS BEING IFR. LATEST SAT
IMAGERY IS INDICATING SOME OF SLIGHT CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA...SO
CONDS MAY TEMPO INCREASE TO VFR FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVE. THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO COME BACK DOWN HOWEVER. THERE IS ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING OF CONDS DROPPING TO IFR.

POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE/SNOW WILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING
DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF...MOSTLY EAST OF THE NYC TERMINALS.

A WEAK NLY FLOW AT LESS THAN 10 KT GRADUALLY VEERS AROUND TO E/NE
BY MON AFT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MON NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE IN E FLOW AND RAIN.
.TUE-TUE NIGHT...IFR LIKELY IN RAIN. E WINDS 10-20 KT...BECOMING
SE.
.WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT BECMG LIKELY. IFR WITH +RA. S/SE WINDS
15-20G20-25KT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW LATE WED NIGHT.
.THU...VFR CONDS RETURNING BY AFTN. -SHRA IN THE MORNING. W WINDS
15-20G25-35KT.
.FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT...SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS. A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND DRIFTS NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE WATERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. EAST WINDS INCREASE
SLIGHTLY BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

SEAS REMAIN 4 FT OR LESS OVER THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW INTO TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. WIND AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WIND AND GUSTS WILL
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. THEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE WIND GUSTS ON THE OCEAN INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WIND SHIFTS
TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND BECOMES VERY GUSTY IN THE COLDER AIR.
GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS ALL THE WATERS DURING
THURSDAY AND THEN SUBSIDE TO BELOW GALE FORCE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT DURING FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH DRY SATURDAY...AND WIND AND SEA ARE
LIKELY TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVEL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY
JUST LIGHT AMOUNTS.

RAINFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING COULD TOTAL
1 1/2 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/PW
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...
MARINE...MET/PW
HYDROLOGY...MET/PW






000
FXUS61 KBUF 220236
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
936 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY AND PROVIDE ONE
MORE DAY OF DRY WEATHER. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ALONG WITH THE WARMTH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND PRODUCE RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR WET SNOW
SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM CONTINUES TO
REVOLVE AROUND THE EVER PRESENT LOW STRATUS AND ITS EVOLUTION.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWING THICK STRATUS DOMINATING
MOST OF THE REGION. NAM POINT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STEEP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
AROUND 3K FEET...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
STRATUS THROUGH TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT...SO EVEN IN AREAS NEAR LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A FEW
BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THE STRATUS WILL LIKELY MOVE BACK
IN OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE LITTLE DIURNAL RANGE WITH MOST AREAS
STAYING CLOUDY. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 20S IN MOST AREAS AND UPPER
TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

ON MONDAY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE. THE
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TO FINALLY ERODE THE
LOW STRATUS FROM THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE LAKE PLAINS WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. THE STRATUS MAY BE MORE DIFFICULT TO
DISLODGE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER...
FINGER LAKES...AND TUG HILL REGION WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN THE MID LEVELS
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WILL JUST BRING A MODEST INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL CLOUD WITH ANY LIGHT PRECIP REMAINING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BOOST
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES OVER RECENT DAYS...WITH UPPER 30S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND MID 30S ON THE HILLS AND NORTH COUNTRY.
SOME OF THE TYPICALLY WARMER LOCATIONS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY MAY
PUSH 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FOCUS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL BE ON A STORM EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES LATER TUESDAY THEN MERGE WITH
A NORTHERN STREAM LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON CHRISTMAS EVE.
THIS WILL BRING VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE TO AT TIMES
HEAVY RAINFALL ON CHRISTMAS EVE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
POSSIBLY STRONG WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

LEADING UP TO CHRISTMAS EVE THE WEATHER WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO ABOVE AVERAGE AND A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LIE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT INCREASING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WILL BRING OVERCAST SKIES WHILE
WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF A SHOWER ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK.
MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT BECOME FULLY SATURATED UNTIL LATE TUESDAY
WITH MUCH OF THE LIGHT SHOWERS BEFOREHAND DRYING UP BEFORE REACHING
THE GROUND. IT IS WORTH A MENTION THAT ANY PRECIP THAT COULD REACH
THE SURFACE EARLY TUESDAY WHEN TEMPS ARE STILL HOVERING NEAR
FREEZING MAY FALL AS A LIGHT WINTERY MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ESPECIALLY BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS WELL
ABOVE FREEZING SO PLAIN RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE HERE.

THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND +10C. MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THEN TEMPS PUSH WELL INTO THE 40S WITH AROUND 50 ALONG
THE LAKESHORES ON TUESDAY WITH A DOWNSLOPE SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE
ERIE SHORELINE.

ON CHRISTMAS EVE A PLUME OF MOISTURE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WILL SHIFT
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SURFACE LOW AS IT MERGES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. NAEFS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE OVER ONE INCH WHICH IS
NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN A 30 YEAR PWAT CLIMO. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S CHRISTMAS EVE SHOULD YIELD
SOME MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS MAY
ALSO HELP TO DRAG DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A 50 KNOT
850MB JET STREAKING OVERHEAD. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS AND
INCREASING WINDS...DOWNSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST SURFACE
TEMPS INTO THE 50S WITH A RUN AT 60 DEGREES FOR BUFFALO AND
ROCHESTER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THESE NUMBERS ARE 20+ DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL LATE DECEMBER HIGHS.

A SHARP COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW IS FAVORABLE
FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH THE FALLING
PRESSURES WITHIN THE LOW ALSO REQUIRED FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT. WINDS
OF 50-60 KNOTS WILL BE FOUND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WITH COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT HELPING TO MIX THESE STRONG WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. CIPS ANALOGS FOR THIS EVENT AND THE SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
LEAN TOWARD MAINLY A WESTERN NEW YORK EVENT POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS WELL INLAND
FROM THE LAKES. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 60 MPH EAST OF LAKE ERIE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY EVENTUALLY BRING THE NEED FOR A HIGH WIND
WATCH IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES SHIFTING ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW
YORK WHICH WILL ENSURE A GUSTY CHRISTMAS DAY. WINDS GUSTS INTO THE
40S SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST WIND ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY.

COLD AIR WILL ALSO WORK ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO MENTION THAT WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES THE SOURCE REGION OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC
BASED AND NOT ARCTIC BASED SO THIS LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL
BRING A REDUCED THREAT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY. 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK TO ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN -5C AND
-8C. THIS SHOULD ONLY ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL INTO THE
MID 30S WITH LOW 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LATEST FORECAST
CONTINUES TO REFLECT A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SOME LIMITED WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME WEAK
LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LINGERING POST FRONTAL
MOISTURE AND LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 5KFT
DURING THE DAY.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER BACK INTO THE MID 40S
AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAKER GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH LOOKS TO
BRING A SHOT OF WESTERN CANADIAN SOURCED AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR SATURDAY
THEN PLAIN SNOW SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPS BACK TO AROUND
FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WEAK SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW STRATUS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS IN MOST
AREAS. LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL INCREASE. THE DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP TO ERODE
THE STRATUS DECK ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING
OUT AND CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. STRATUS MAY LOCK IN LONGER ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND TUG
HILL REGION WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE DRIFTING
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY TUESDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE SOME ON MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THEN CROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
THURSDAY. THIS IS A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TRACK FOR STRONG WINDS
ON THE LOWER LAKES...WITH A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON
BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBUF 220236
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
936 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY AND PROVIDE ONE
MORE DAY OF DRY WEATHER. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ALONG WITH THE WARMTH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND PRODUCE RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR WET SNOW
SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM CONTINUES TO
REVOLVE AROUND THE EVER PRESENT LOW STRATUS AND ITS EVOLUTION.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWING THICK STRATUS DOMINATING
MOST OF THE REGION. NAM POINT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STEEP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
AROUND 3K FEET...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
STRATUS THROUGH TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT...SO EVEN IN AREAS NEAR LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A FEW
BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THE STRATUS WILL LIKELY MOVE BACK
IN OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE LITTLE DIURNAL RANGE WITH MOST AREAS
STAYING CLOUDY. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 20S IN MOST AREAS AND UPPER
TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

ON MONDAY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE. THE
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TO FINALLY ERODE THE
LOW STRATUS FROM THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE LAKE PLAINS WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. THE STRATUS MAY BE MORE DIFFICULT TO
DISLODGE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER...
FINGER LAKES...AND TUG HILL REGION WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN THE MID LEVELS
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WILL JUST BRING A MODEST INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL CLOUD WITH ANY LIGHT PRECIP REMAINING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BOOST
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES OVER RECENT DAYS...WITH UPPER 30S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND MID 30S ON THE HILLS AND NORTH COUNTRY.
SOME OF THE TYPICALLY WARMER LOCATIONS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY MAY
PUSH 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FOCUS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL BE ON A STORM EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES LATER TUESDAY THEN MERGE WITH
A NORTHERN STREAM LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON CHRISTMAS EVE.
THIS WILL BRING VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE TO AT TIMES
HEAVY RAINFALL ON CHRISTMAS EVE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
POSSIBLY STRONG WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

LEADING UP TO CHRISTMAS EVE THE WEATHER WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO ABOVE AVERAGE AND A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LIE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT INCREASING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WILL BRING OVERCAST SKIES WHILE
WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF A SHOWER ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK.
MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT BECOME FULLY SATURATED UNTIL LATE TUESDAY
WITH MUCH OF THE LIGHT SHOWERS BEFOREHAND DRYING UP BEFORE REACHING
THE GROUND. IT IS WORTH A MENTION THAT ANY PRECIP THAT COULD REACH
THE SURFACE EARLY TUESDAY WHEN TEMPS ARE STILL HOVERING NEAR
FREEZING MAY FALL AS A LIGHT WINTERY MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ESPECIALLY BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS WELL
ABOVE FREEZING SO PLAIN RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE HERE.

THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND +10C. MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THEN TEMPS PUSH WELL INTO THE 40S WITH AROUND 50 ALONG
THE LAKESHORES ON TUESDAY WITH A DOWNSLOPE SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE
ERIE SHORELINE.

ON CHRISTMAS EVE A PLUME OF MOISTURE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WILL SHIFT
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SURFACE LOW AS IT MERGES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. NAEFS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE OVER ONE INCH WHICH IS
NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN A 30 YEAR PWAT CLIMO. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S CHRISTMAS EVE SHOULD YIELD
SOME MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS MAY
ALSO HELP TO DRAG DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A 50 KNOT
850MB JET STREAKING OVERHEAD. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS AND
INCREASING WINDS...DOWNSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST SURFACE
TEMPS INTO THE 50S WITH A RUN AT 60 DEGREES FOR BUFFALO AND
ROCHESTER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THESE NUMBERS ARE 20+ DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL LATE DECEMBER HIGHS.

A SHARP COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW IS FAVORABLE
FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH THE FALLING
PRESSURES WITHIN THE LOW ALSO REQUIRED FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT. WINDS
OF 50-60 KNOTS WILL BE FOUND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WITH COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT HELPING TO MIX THESE STRONG WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. CIPS ANALOGS FOR THIS EVENT AND THE SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
LEAN TOWARD MAINLY A WESTERN NEW YORK EVENT POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS WELL INLAND
FROM THE LAKES. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 60 MPH EAST OF LAKE ERIE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY EVENTUALLY BRING THE NEED FOR A HIGH WIND
WATCH IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES SHIFTING ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW
YORK WHICH WILL ENSURE A GUSTY CHRISTMAS DAY. WINDS GUSTS INTO THE
40S SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST WIND ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY.

COLD AIR WILL ALSO WORK ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO MENTION THAT WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES THE SOURCE REGION OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC
BASED AND NOT ARCTIC BASED SO THIS LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL
BRING A REDUCED THREAT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY. 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK TO ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN -5C AND
-8C. THIS SHOULD ONLY ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL INTO THE
MID 30S WITH LOW 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LATEST FORECAST
CONTINUES TO REFLECT A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SOME LIMITED WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME WEAK
LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LINGERING POST FRONTAL
MOISTURE AND LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 5KFT
DURING THE DAY.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER BACK INTO THE MID 40S
AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAKER GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH LOOKS TO
BRING A SHOT OF WESTERN CANADIAN SOURCED AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR SATURDAY
THEN PLAIN SNOW SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPS BACK TO AROUND
FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WEAK SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW STRATUS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS IN MOST
AREAS. LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL INCREASE. THE DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP TO ERODE
THE STRATUS DECK ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING
OUT AND CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. STRATUS MAY LOCK IN LONGER ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND TUG
HILL REGION WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE DRIFTING
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY TUESDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE SOME ON MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THEN CROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
THURSDAY. THIS IS A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TRACK FOR STRONG WINDS
ON THE LOWER LAKES...WITH A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON
BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBGM 220222
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
922 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY AS
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE. A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN MIDWEST IN
COMBINATION WITH A LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION, FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY RAIN INTO
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...
THE MAIN GRID CHANGES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WERE TO AMP UP THE
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TO NEAR OVERCAST. NO REASON TO BELIEVE,
BASED ON CURRENT CLOUD COVER AND THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION
ALOFT, THAT WE WILL SEE APPRECIABLE CLEARING AT ANY POINT.

THE OVERNIGHT MINS NEEDED SOME WORK, TOO. MAINLY BROUGHT A FEW
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE WYOMING VALLEY WHERE THE CURRENT
TEMPS WERE CLOSE TO THE PROJECTED MINS.

OTHERWISE, THE PREVIOUS GRIDS LOOK GREAT AND ONLY NEEDED MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.


4 PM UPDATRE...
NO ONE CAN SAY THE BGM/S REPUTATION FOR CLDS IS UNDESERVED AFT
THIS STRETCH OF OVC WX. AREA OF CLRG OVER THE NRN FINGER LAKES AND
ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN QUICKLY FILLED IN AS HTG BUBBLED UP ADTNL
MOISTURE INTO A NEW SC DECK. WHILE SOME OF THE MODELS INSIST THAT
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO CLR THE AREA THIS EVE INTO MON...
STUBBORNLY STRNG INV REMAINS IN PLACE...AND WITH LGT WINDS AND NO
MIXING...SEE LTL TO BRK UP THE CLDS IN PLACE. ALSO...SAT IMAGES
SHOW A SOLID DECK ALL THE WAY BACK INTO EERN OH THIS AFT. WHEN
WINDS FNLY DO DVLP MON MRNG...THEY/RE FROM THE SE PTNLY ADDING
MOISTURE TO THE SNDG. SO...HAVE GONE AGAINST MODEL GUID AND GONE
WITH EXPERIENCE AND CONSISTENCY AND CONTD THE CLDS THRU THE NEAR
TERM.

TEMPS ENDED UP STAYING BLO GUID FCST TODAY AS THE STUBBORN CLDS
DID NOT ALLOW ANY HTG AS ANTICIPATED BY MOS. XPCT LTL DIURNAL CHG
OVRNGT WITH THE CLDS. FOR MON...SOME WEAK WAA DOES OCCUR WITH THE
SELY FLOW SO HAVE GONE NEARER GUID FCST. SOME LGT PCPN MAY DVLP
OVER THE SERN ZONES ON MON AS A WEAK WV PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH.
TEMPS MRGNL SO HAVE GONE WITH MIXED PCPN WHICH BLENDED WELL WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/...
300 PM EST UPDATE... A LARGE STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT NY
AND PA STARTING LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUES MORNING AND MAY LINGER
THROUGH LATE THURS NIGHT...

MANY UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST WITH THIS STORM. BUT...
SYNOPTICALLY... GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE
UPPR LOW. GUIDANCE ALSO SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD IDEA OF THE OVERALL
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC LOW AND IT MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

LATE MONDAY NIGHT THE POTENT UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD
ALONG AND SLIGHTLY E OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND GENERATE
CYCLOGENESIS OVR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF KS AND NE. THIS SFC LOW
WILL THEN TRACK NE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. BY TUES
MORNING A STRONG VORT MAXIMA WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPR
TROUGH OVR FAR S TX GENERATING A SECONDARY SFC LOW/SFC TROUGH OVR
E LA. AS THIS OCCURS... THE MAIN SFC LOW OVER THE NORTH WILL BECOME
OCCLUDED.

THE UPPR TROUGH WILL START TO SHIFT EAST TUES NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST THE SECONDARY SFC LOW/TROUGH WILL MERGE WITH THE
PRIMARY SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARDS OUR CWA AND
BRING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING LATE MONDAY NIGHT
LASTING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AS THIS SYSTEM STARTS TO GENERATE PRECIP... EXPECT THE PRECIP TO
START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX AND MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. THIS IS DUE TO WAA AND ISENTROPHIC LIFT AHEAD THE
OCCLUDED FRONT. PRECIP WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE N AND WEST. A STRONG
LLJ WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CWA LATE TUES MORNING/AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN STRONG WAA AND GUSTY WINDS OVR THE REGION. BY TUES
AFTERNOON THE WAA WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AND ALL PRECIP WILL
FALL AS RAIN. RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH
WED NIGHT. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS PWAT
VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE COLDER ATTENDANT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL START TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION THURS MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY GUSTY BEHIND
THE FROPA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE VERY COLD AIR WITH IT DUE IT
WHERE IT ORIGINATED. IT IS A PACIFIC AIRMASS NOT AN ARCTIC.
THUS... TEMPS WILL NOT DROP DRAMATICALLY POST FRONTAL.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED ATTM TO BE HEAVY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FNT SWINGS THRU FRI NGT AND RETURNS THE AREA TO MORE TYPICAL
EARLY WINTER WX. CONTD CAA WILL GRADUALLY LWR TEMPS THRU THE PD
INCRSG THE CHANCE OF LE SNOW SHWRS. SHEARED FLOW ININTIALLY BHD
THE FNT WILL LIMIT THE AMT OF LE...WHILE THE DEEPER COLD AIR AITS
TO JUST BEYOND THE PD LATE SUN AND EARLY MON.

TEMPS WILL AVG NEAR NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN ACROSS ALL TAF SITES IN
CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. CIGS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 1500 AND
2500 FEET THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CIGS POP UP
TO MVFR AT KELM MON PM. OTHERWISE SOLID MVFR CIG THRU 00Z TUE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTH THIS EVENING AND SHIFT TO SE AT 5 KNOTS
OR SO BY MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...MAINLY MVFR CIG.

TUE TO THURS...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-
THURS.

FRI...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/DJP
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DJN






000
FXUS61 KBGM 220222
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
922 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY AS
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE. A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN MIDWEST IN
COMBINATION WITH A LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION, FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY RAIN INTO
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...
THE MAIN GRID CHANGES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WERE TO AMP UP THE
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TO NEAR OVERCAST. NO REASON TO BELIEVE,
BASED ON CURRENT CLOUD COVER AND THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION
ALOFT, THAT WE WILL SEE APPRECIABLE CLEARING AT ANY POINT.

THE OVERNIGHT MINS NEEDED SOME WORK, TOO. MAINLY BROUGHT A FEW
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE WYOMING VALLEY WHERE THE CURRENT
TEMPS WERE CLOSE TO THE PROJECTED MINS.

OTHERWISE, THE PREVIOUS GRIDS LOOK GREAT AND ONLY NEEDED MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.


4 PM UPDATRE...
NO ONE CAN SAY THE BGM/S REPUTATION FOR CLDS IS UNDESERVED AFT
THIS STRETCH OF OVC WX. AREA OF CLRG OVER THE NRN FINGER LAKES AND
ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN QUICKLY FILLED IN AS HTG BUBBLED UP ADTNL
MOISTURE INTO A NEW SC DECK. WHILE SOME OF THE MODELS INSIST THAT
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO CLR THE AREA THIS EVE INTO MON...
STUBBORNLY STRNG INV REMAINS IN PLACE...AND WITH LGT WINDS AND NO
MIXING...SEE LTL TO BRK UP THE CLDS IN PLACE. ALSO...SAT IMAGES
SHOW A SOLID DECK ALL THE WAY BACK INTO EERN OH THIS AFT. WHEN
WINDS FNLY DO DVLP MON MRNG...THEY/RE FROM THE SE PTNLY ADDING
MOISTURE TO THE SNDG. SO...HAVE GONE AGAINST MODEL GUID AND GONE
WITH EXPERIENCE AND CONSISTENCY AND CONTD THE CLDS THRU THE NEAR
TERM.

TEMPS ENDED UP STAYING BLO GUID FCST TODAY AS THE STUBBORN CLDS
DID NOT ALLOW ANY HTG AS ANTICIPATED BY MOS. XPCT LTL DIURNAL CHG
OVRNGT WITH THE CLDS. FOR MON...SOME WEAK WAA DOES OCCUR WITH THE
SELY FLOW SO HAVE GONE NEARER GUID FCST. SOME LGT PCPN MAY DVLP
OVER THE SERN ZONES ON MON AS A WEAK WV PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH.
TEMPS MRGNL SO HAVE GONE WITH MIXED PCPN WHICH BLENDED WELL WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/...
300 PM EST UPDATE... A LARGE STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT NY
AND PA STARTING LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUES MORNING AND MAY LINGER
THROUGH LATE THURS NIGHT...

MANY UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST WITH THIS STORM. BUT...
SYNOPTICALLY... GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE
UPPR LOW. GUIDANCE ALSO SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD IDEA OF THE OVERALL
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC LOW AND IT MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

LATE MONDAY NIGHT THE POTENT UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD
ALONG AND SLIGHTLY E OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND GENERATE
CYCLOGENESIS OVR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF KS AND NE. THIS SFC LOW
WILL THEN TRACK NE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. BY TUES
MORNING A STRONG VORT MAXIMA WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPR
TROUGH OVR FAR S TX GENERATING A SECONDARY SFC LOW/SFC TROUGH OVR
E LA. AS THIS OCCURS... THE MAIN SFC LOW OVER THE NORTH WILL BECOME
OCCLUDED.

THE UPPR TROUGH WILL START TO SHIFT EAST TUES NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST THE SECONDARY SFC LOW/TROUGH WILL MERGE WITH THE
PRIMARY SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARDS OUR CWA AND
BRING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING LATE MONDAY NIGHT
LASTING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AS THIS SYSTEM STARTS TO GENERATE PRECIP... EXPECT THE PRECIP TO
START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX AND MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. THIS IS DUE TO WAA AND ISENTROPHIC LIFT AHEAD THE
OCCLUDED FRONT. PRECIP WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE N AND WEST. A STRONG
LLJ WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CWA LATE TUES MORNING/AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN STRONG WAA AND GUSTY WINDS OVR THE REGION. BY TUES
AFTERNOON THE WAA WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AND ALL PRECIP WILL
FALL AS RAIN. RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH
WED NIGHT. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS PWAT
VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE COLDER ATTENDANT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL START TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION THURS MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY GUSTY BEHIND
THE FROPA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE VERY COLD AIR WITH IT DUE IT
WHERE IT ORIGINATED. IT IS A PACIFIC AIRMASS NOT AN ARCTIC.
THUS... TEMPS WILL NOT DROP DRAMATICALLY POST FRONTAL.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED ATTM TO BE HEAVY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FNT SWINGS THRU FRI NGT AND RETURNS THE AREA TO MORE TYPICAL
EARLY WINTER WX. CONTD CAA WILL GRADUALLY LWR TEMPS THRU THE PD
INCRSG THE CHANCE OF LE SNOW SHWRS. SHEARED FLOW ININTIALLY BHD
THE FNT WILL LIMIT THE AMT OF LE...WHILE THE DEEPER COLD AIR AITS
TO JUST BEYOND THE PD LATE SUN AND EARLY MON.

TEMPS WILL AVG NEAR NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN ACROSS ALL TAF SITES IN
CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. CIGS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 1500 AND
2500 FEET THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CIGS POP UP
TO MVFR AT KELM MON PM. OTHERWISE SOLID MVFR CIG THRU 00Z TUE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTH THIS EVENING AND SHIFT TO SE AT 5 KNOTS
OR SO BY MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...MAINLY MVFR CIG.

TUE TO THURS...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-
THURS.

FRI...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/DJP
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DJN






000
FXUS61 KBGM 220222
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
922 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY AS
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE. A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN MIDWEST IN
COMBINATION WITH A LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION, FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY RAIN INTO
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...
THE MAIN GRID CHANGES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WERE TO AMP UP THE
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TO NEAR OVERCAST. NO REASON TO BELIEVE,
BASED ON CURRENT CLOUD COVER AND THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION
ALOFT, THAT WE WILL SEE APPRECIABLE CLEARING AT ANY POINT.

THE OVERNIGHT MINS NEEDED SOME WORK, TOO. MAINLY BROUGHT A FEW
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE WYOMING VALLEY WHERE THE CURRENT
TEMPS WERE CLOSE TO THE PROJECTED MINS.

OTHERWISE, THE PREVIOUS GRIDS LOOK GREAT AND ONLY NEEDED MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.


4 PM UPDATRE...
NO ONE CAN SAY THE BGM/S REPUTATION FOR CLDS IS UNDESERVED AFT
THIS STRETCH OF OVC WX. AREA OF CLRG OVER THE NRN FINGER LAKES AND
ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN QUICKLY FILLED IN AS HTG BUBBLED UP ADTNL
MOISTURE INTO A NEW SC DECK. WHILE SOME OF THE MODELS INSIST THAT
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO CLR THE AREA THIS EVE INTO MON...
STUBBORNLY STRNG INV REMAINS IN PLACE...AND WITH LGT WINDS AND NO
MIXING...SEE LTL TO BRK UP THE CLDS IN PLACE. ALSO...SAT IMAGES
SHOW A SOLID DECK ALL THE WAY BACK INTO EERN OH THIS AFT. WHEN
WINDS FNLY DO DVLP MON MRNG...THEY/RE FROM THE SE PTNLY ADDING
MOISTURE TO THE SNDG. SO...HAVE GONE AGAINST MODEL GUID AND GONE
WITH EXPERIENCE AND CONSISTENCY AND CONTD THE CLDS THRU THE NEAR
TERM.

TEMPS ENDED UP STAYING BLO GUID FCST TODAY AS THE STUBBORN CLDS
DID NOT ALLOW ANY HTG AS ANTICIPATED BY MOS. XPCT LTL DIURNAL CHG
OVRNGT WITH THE CLDS. FOR MON...SOME WEAK WAA DOES OCCUR WITH THE
SELY FLOW SO HAVE GONE NEARER GUID FCST. SOME LGT PCPN MAY DVLP
OVER THE SERN ZONES ON MON AS A WEAK WV PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH.
TEMPS MRGNL SO HAVE GONE WITH MIXED PCPN WHICH BLENDED WELL WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/...
300 PM EST UPDATE... A LARGE STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT NY
AND PA STARTING LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUES MORNING AND MAY LINGER
THROUGH LATE THURS NIGHT...

MANY UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST WITH THIS STORM. BUT...
SYNOPTICALLY... GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE
UPPR LOW. GUIDANCE ALSO SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD IDEA OF THE OVERALL
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC LOW AND IT MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

LATE MONDAY NIGHT THE POTENT UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD
ALONG AND SLIGHTLY E OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND GENERATE
CYCLOGENESIS OVR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF KS AND NE. THIS SFC LOW
WILL THEN TRACK NE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. BY TUES
MORNING A STRONG VORT MAXIMA WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPR
TROUGH OVR FAR S TX GENERATING A SECONDARY SFC LOW/SFC TROUGH OVR
E LA. AS THIS OCCURS... THE MAIN SFC LOW OVER THE NORTH WILL BECOME
OCCLUDED.

THE UPPR TROUGH WILL START TO SHIFT EAST TUES NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST THE SECONDARY SFC LOW/TROUGH WILL MERGE WITH THE
PRIMARY SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARDS OUR CWA AND
BRING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING LATE MONDAY NIGHT
LASTING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AS THIS SYSTEM STARTS TO GENERATE PRECIP... EXPECT THE PRECIP TO
START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX AND MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. THIS IS DUE TO WAA AND ISENTROPHIC LIFT AHEAD THE
OCCLUDED FRONT. PRECIP WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE N AND WEST. A STRONG
LLJ WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CWA LATE TUES MORNING/AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN STRONG WAA AND GUSTY WINDS OVR THE REGION. BY TUES
AFTERNOON THE WAA WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AND ALL PRECIP WILL
FALL AS RAIN. RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH
WED NIGHT. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS PWAT
VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE COLDER ATTENDANT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL START TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION THURS MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY GUSTY BEHIND
THE FROPA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE VERY COLD AIR WITH IT DUE IT
WHERE IT ORIGINATED. IT IS A PACIFIC AIRMASS NOT AN ARCTIC.
THUS... TEMPS WILL NOT DROP DRAMATICALLY POST FRONTAL.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED ATTM TO BE HEAVY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FNT SWINGS THRU FRI NGT AND RETURNS THE AREA TO MORE TYPICAL
EARLY WINTER WX. CONTD CAA WILL GRADUALLY LWR TEMPS THRU THE PD
INCRSG THE CHANCE OF LE SNOW SHWRS. SHEARED FLOW ININTIALLY BHD
THE FNT WILL LIMIT THE AMT OF LE...WHILE THE DEEPER COLD AIR AITS
TO JUST BEYOND THE PD LATE SUN AND EARLY MON.

TEMPS WILL AVG NEAR NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN ACROSS ALL TAF SITES IN
CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. CIGS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 1500 AND
2500 FEET THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CIGS POP UP
TO MVFR AT KELM MON PM. OTHERWISE SOLID MVFR CIG THRU 00Z TUE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTH THIS EVENING AND SHIFT TO SE AT 5 KNOTS
OR SO BY MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...MAINLY MVFR CIG.

TUE TO THURS...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-
THURS.

FRI...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/DJP
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DJN






000
FXUS61 KBGM 220222
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
922 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY AS
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE. A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN MIDWEST IN
COMBINATION WITH A LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION, FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY RAIN INTO
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...
THE MAIN GRID CHANGES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WERE TO AMP UP THE
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TO NEAR OVERCAST. NO REASON TO BELIEVE,
BASED ON CURRENT CLOUD COVER AND THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION
ALOFT, THAT WE WILL SEE APPRECIABLE CLEARING AT ANY POINT.

THE OVERNIGHT MINS NEEDED SOME WORK, TOO. MAINLY BROUGHT A FEW
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE WYOMING VALLEY WHERE THE CURRENT
TEMPS WERE CLOSE TO THE PROJECTED MINS.

OTHERWISE, THE PREVIOUS GRIDS LOOK GREAT AND ONLY NEEDED MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.


4 PM UPDATRE...
NO ONE CAN SAY THE BGM/S REPUTATION FOR CLDS IS UNDESERVED AFT
THIS STRETCH OF OVC WX. AREA OF CLRG OVER THE NRN FINGER LAKES AND
ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN QUICKLY FILLED IN AS HTG BUBBLED UP ADTNL
MOISTURE INTO A NEW SC DECK. WHILE SOME OF THE MODELS INSIST THAT
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO CLR THE AREA THIS EVE INTO MON...
STUBBORNLY STRNG INV REMAINS IN PLACE...AND WITH LGT WINDS AND NO
MIXING...SEE LTL TO BRK UP THE CLDS IN PLACE. ALSO...SAT IMAGES
SHOW A SOLID DECK ALL THE WAY BACK INTO EERN OH THIS AFT. WHEN
WINDS FNLY DO DVLP MON MRNG...THEY/RE FROM THE SE PTNLY ADDING
MOISTURE TO THE SNDG. SO...HAVE GONE AGAINST MODEL GUID AND GONE
WITH EXPERIENCE AND CONSISTENCY AND CONTD THE CLDS THRU THE NEAR
TERM.

TEMPS ENDED UP STAYING BLO GUID FCST TODAY AS THE STUBBORN CLDS
DID NOT ALLOW ANY HTG AS ANTICIPATED BY MOS. XPCT LTL DIURNAL CHG
OVRNGT WITH THE CLDS. FOR MON...SOME WEAK WAA DOES OCCUR WITH THE
SELY FLOW SO HAVE GONE NEARER GUID FCST. SOME LGT PCPN MAY DVLP
OVER THE SERN ZONES ON MON AS A WEAK WV PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH.
TEMPS MRGNL SO HAVE GONE WITH MIXED PCPN WHICH BLENDED WELL WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/...
300 PM EST UPDATE... A LARGE STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT NY
AND PA STARTING LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUES MORNING AND MAY LINGER
THROUGH LATE THURS NIGHT...

MANY UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST WITH THIS STORM. BUT...
SYNOPTICALLY... GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE
UPPR LOW. GUIDANCE ALSO SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD IDEA OF THE OVERALL
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC LOW AND IT MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

LATE MONDAY NIGHT THE POTENT UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD
ALONG AND SLIGHTLY E OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND GENERATE
CYCLOGENESIS OVR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF KS AND NE. THIS SFC LOW
WILL THEN TRACK NE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. BY TUES
MORNING A STRONG VORT MAXIMA WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPR
TROUGH OVR FAR S TX GENERATING A SECONDARY SFC LOW/SFC TROUGH OVR
E LA. AS THIS OCCURS... THE MAIN SFC LOW OVER THE NORTH WILL BECOME
OCCLUDED.

THE UPPR TROUGH WILL START TO SHIFT EAST TUES NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST THE SECONDARY SFC LOW/TROUGH WILL MERGE WITH THE
PRIMARY SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARDS OUR CWA AND
BRING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING LATE MONDAY NIGHT
LASTING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AS THIS SYSTEM STARTS TO GENERATE PRECIP... EXPECT THE PRECIP TO
START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX AND MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. THIS IS DUE TO WAA AND ISENTROPHIC LIFT AHEAD THE
OCCLUDED FRONT. PRECIP WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE N AND WEST. A STRONG
LLJ WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CWA LATE TUES MORNING/AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN STRONG WAA AND GUSTY WINDS OVR THE REGION. BY TUES
AFTERNOON THE WAA WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AND ALL PRECIP WILL
FALL AS RAIN. RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH
WED NIGHT. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS PWAT
VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE COLDER ATTENDANT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL START TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION THURS MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY GUSTY BEHIND
THE FROPA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE VERY COLD AIR WITH IT DUE IT
WHERE IT ORIGINATED. IT IS A PACIFIC AIRMASS NOT AN ARCTIC.
THUS... TEMPS WILL NOT DROP DRAMATICALLY POST FRONTAL.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED ATTM TO BE HEAVY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FNT SWINGS THRU FRI NGT AND RETURNS THE AREA TO MORE TYPICAL
EARLY WINTER WX. CONTD CAA WILL GRADUALLY LWR TEMPS THRU THE PD
INCRSG THE CHANCE OF LE SNOW SHWRS. SHEARED FLOW ININTIALLY BHD
THE FNT WILL LIMIT THE AMT OF LE...WHILE THE DEEPER COLD AIR AITS
TO JUST BEYOND THE PD LATE SUN AND EARLY MON.

TEMPS WILL AVG NEAR NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN ACROSS ALL TAF SITES IN
CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. CIGS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 1500 AND
2500 FEET THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CIGS POP UP
TO MVFR AT KELM MON PM. OTHERWISE SOLID MVFR CIG THRU 00Z TUE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTH THIS EVENING AND SHIFT TO SE AT 5 KNOTS
OR SO BY MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...MAINLY MVFR CIG.

TUE TO THURS...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-
THURS.

FRI...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/DJP
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DJN






000
FXUS61 KALY 220222
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
922 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND QUEBEC WILL KEEP A MOIST LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION...WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS INTO MID WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND A BETTER CHANCE
FOR LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY
A STORM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTENSIFY RAPIDLY
AS IT MOVES NORTH TO THE OTTAWA VALLEY. IT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
FEW MINOR TWEEKS TO FCST. FOR THE MOST PART ON TRACK. MASSIVE
INVERSION FM 925HPA TO 725HPA COMBINED WITH LLVL EASTERLY FLOW AND
WEAK UVM WITH 500HPA TROF OVER RGN WILL INSURE ITS MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH LOWERING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. VERY LIGHT -SN OCCURRING ON THE
EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE LITCHFIELD HILLS/BERKS AND TACONICS
OVERNIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE FA WILL BE DRY WITH MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES OVERNIGHT AND LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS MOISTURE
STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA AND
EVENTUALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA BY MORNING. PARTIAL THICKNESS
VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET MIXING IN. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH
OF A DROP FROM DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...FREEZING RAIN WILL LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH ALL RAIN FROM MID
MORNING TUESDAY ON ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

TUESDAY NIGHT A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. AS THE LOW
APPROACHES IT WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
SUCH THAT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS WET AND MILD TO START FOR CHRISTMAS
EVE...AND THEN BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR CHRISTMAS
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH PERHAPS SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CLOSE THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS HAVE MENTIONED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...A
POTENTIAL MULTI-HAZARD EVENT IS POSSIBLE WED INTO THU WITH A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WELL WEST OF THE REGION FROM THE TN
VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE CANADA.  THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING MILDER WX ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS...AND A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE.  ALSO STRONG S TO SW WINDS
AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING SFC CYCLONE ARE EXPECTED WED
INTO WED PM...AND A BAND OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.  THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS COUPLED WITH 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 24 HRS OR LESS...AND SNOW MELT COULD PRODUCE
SOME MINOR HYDRO ISSUES.  ALSO THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...AND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 970 HPA OR LOWER OVER WRN QUEBEC COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG W/NW WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS.

WED-WED NIGHT...INITIAL BURST OF RAINFALL DURING THE DAY ON WED WILL
BE WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285/290K SFC.  THE WARM FRONT
SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AN ANOMALOUS
SOUTHERLY LLJ JET OF 40-60 KTS AT H850 WILL ADVECT IN ANOMALOUS PWAT
VALUES OF 3 TO 5 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
GEFS.  THE +V-WIND ANOMALIES /SOUTHERLIES/ ARE 2 TO 3 STD DEVS ABOVE
NORMAL.  THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  H850 TEMPS RISE TO +10C TO
+12C IN THE WARM SECTOR.  THE NARROW COLD FRONT RAINBAND LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM BTWN
06Z-12Z/THU...AS THE CYCLONE DEEPENS AND INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES
N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY.  HIGH TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS EVE WILL BE IN THE
MID TO U50S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST /NEARLY 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/...AND M40S TO L50S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  AS
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN WED NIGHT...EXPECT SOME OF THE RAIN TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE SRN DACKS.  PERHAPS AN
INCH OR SO OF WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE.  LOWS CHRISTMAS MORNING WILL BE
IN THE MID TO U30S WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER TO
MID 40S FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EAST.

CHRISTMAS-CHRISTMAS NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER
WRN QUEBEC NEAR JAMES BAY.  SIGNIFICANT MSLP PRESSURE RISES WILL BE
OCCURRING OVER THE FCST AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.  BLUSTERY W/NW WINDS OF 15 TO 30
MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE DEEPER
MIXING AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT.  A WIND HEADLINE
MAY BE NEEDED HERE FOR PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.  SOME WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE WRN DACKS...AND WRN
GREENS.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M30S TO U40S FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA.  THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF CHRISTMAS NIGHT WITH
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS WEST OF THE TRI CITIES.  LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID 20S TO L30S.

FRI-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RIDGES IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE
MID LEVEL FLOW W/SW ALOFT.  A CLIPPER TYPE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SRN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY.  THIS SYSTEM LIFTS
N/NE INTO QUEBEC WITH SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.  SOME ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY GET INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  HIGH WILL BE IN
THE M30S TO M40S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO L30S.  HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COLDER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE L30S TO U30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO L40S
IN THE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...NORTHEAST AND EAST COAST.  THE GFS HAS WEAK
IMPULSES IN THE W/NW CYCLONIC FLOW FOCUSING LAKE EFFECT AND W/NW
UPSLOPE SNOWFALL.  THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
HANGING CLOSE TO THE COAST.  A COASTAL WAVE MOVES ALONG IT SUNDAY
FOR SOME SNOWFALL FOR MOST OF THE REGION.  A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS...SO A LOW CHC OF SNOWFALL WAS USED FOR THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA ON SUNDAY.  TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE FOR LATE DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRATUS DECK REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER MASSIVE INVERSIONS OVER FCA
WITH LITTLE CHANGE LIKELY THROHGH THE TAF PERIOD.  MAINLY MVFR
CIGS AND VSBY WITH WIDESPREAD HIR TRRN OBSCD. GRADUALLY LOWERING
CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR CONDS DVLPG. WK UVM ASSOC WITH
WK 500 HPA CUT OFF OVER RGN...AND LOW LVL ATLC MOISTURE INFLOW
WILL RESULT IN SCT -SHSN/ISOLD ZL OVER W NEW ENG AND SOUTHERN MOST
AREAS OF NYS. CONDS IN THESE AREAS COULD BCM WIDESPREAD IFR
OVERNIGHT.

ON MONDAY...LINGERING PATCHY -SN AND OR ZL WILL DIMINISH EARLY.
OTRW IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...FROM THE N TO NE AT LESS THAN 8 KT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT
SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11/SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...11/NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 220222
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
922 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND QUEBEC WILL KEEP A MOIST LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION...WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS INTO MID WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND A BETTER CHANCE
FOR LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY
A STORM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTENSIFY RAPIDLY
AS IT MOVES NORTH TO THE OTTAWA VALLEY. IT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
FEW MINOR TWEEKS TO FCST. FOR THE MOST PART ON TRACK. MASSIVE
INVERSION FM 925HPA TO 725HPA COMBINED WITH LLVL EASTERLY FLOW AND
WEAK UVM WITH 500HPA TROF OVER RGN WILL INSURE ITS MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH LOWERING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. VERY LIGHT -SN OCCURRING ON THE
EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE LITCHFIELD HILLS/BERKS AND TACONICS
OVERNIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE FA WILL BE DRY WITH MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES OVERNIGHT AND LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS MOISTURE
STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA AND
EVENTUALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA BY MORNING. PARTIAL THICKNESS
VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET MIXING IN. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH
OF A DROP FROM DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...FREEZING RAIN WILL LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH ALL RAIN FROM MID
MORNING TUESDAY ON ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

TUESDAY NIGHT A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. AS THE LOW
APPROACHES IT WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
SUCH THAT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS WET AND MILD TO START FOR CHRISTMAS
EVE...AND THEN BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR CHRISTMAS
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH PERHAPS SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CLOSE THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS HAVE MENTIONED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...A
POTENTIAL MULTI-HAZARD EVENT IS POSSIBLE WED INTO THU WITH A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WELL WEST OF THE REGION FROM THE TN
VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE CANADA.  THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING MILDER WX ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS...AND A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE.  ALSO STRONG S TO SW WINDS
AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING SFC CYCLONE ARE EXPECTED WED
INTO WED PM...AND A BAND OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.  THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS COUPLED WITH 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 24 HRS OR LESS...AND SNOW MELT COULD PRODUCE
SOME MINOR HYDRO ISSUES.  ALSO THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...AND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 970 HPA OR LOWER OVER WRN QUEBEC COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG W/NW WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS.

WED-WED NIGHT...INITIAL BURST OF RAINFALL DURING THE DAY ON WED WILL
BE WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285/290K SFC.  THE WARM FRONT
SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AN ANOMALOUS
SOUTHERLY LLJ JET OF 40-60 KTS AT H850 WILL ADVECT IN ANOMALOUS PWAT
VALUES OF 3 TO 5 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
GEFS.  THE +V-WIND ANOMALIES /SOUTHERLIES/ ARE 2 TO 3 STD DEVS ABOVE
NORMAL.  THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  H850 TEMPS RISE TO +10C TO
+12C IN THE WARM SECTOR.  THE NARROW COLD FRONT RAINBAND LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM BTWN
06Z-12Z/THU...AS THE CYCLONE DEEPENS AND INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES
N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY.  HIGH TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS EVE WILL BE IN THE
MID TO U50S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST /NEARLY 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/...AND M40S TO L50S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  AS
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN WED NIGHT...EXPECT SOME OF THE RAIN TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE SRN DACKS.  PERHAPS AN
INCH OR SO OF WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE.  LOWS CHRISTMAS MORNING WILL BE
IN THE MID TO U30S WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER TO
MID 40S FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EAST.

CHRISTMAS-CHRISTMAS NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER
WRN QUEBEC NEAR JAMES BAY.  SIGNIFICANT MSLP PRESSURE RISES WILL BE
OCCURRING OVER THE FCST AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.  BLUSTERY W/NW WINDS OF 15 TO 30
MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE DEEPER
MIXING AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT.  A WIND HEADLINE
MAY BE NEEDED HERE FOR PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.  SOME WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE WRN DACKS...AND WRN
GREENS.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M30S TO U40S FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA.  THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF CHRISTMAS NIGHT WITH
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS WEST OF THE TRI CITIES.  LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID 20S TO L30S.

FRI-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RIDGES IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE
MID LEVEL FLOW W/SW ALOFT.  A CLIPPER TYPE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SRN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY.  THIS SYSTEM LIFTS
N/NE INTO QUEBEC WITH SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.  SOME ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY GET INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  HIGH WILL BE IN
THE M30S TO M40S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO L30S.  HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COLDER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE L30S TO U30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO L40S
IN THE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...NORTHEAST AND EAST COAST.  THE GFS HAS WEAK
IMPULSES IN THE W/NW CYCLONIC FLOW FOCUSING LAKE EFFECT AND W/NW
UPSLOPE SNOWFALL.  THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
HANGING CLOSE TO THE COAST.  A COASTAL WAVE MOVES ALONG IT SUNDAY
FOR SOME SNOWFALL FOR MOST OF THE REGION.  A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS...SO A LOW CHC OF SNOWFALL WAS USED FOR THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA ON SUNDAY.  TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE FOR LATE DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRATUS DECK REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER MASSIVE INVERSIONS OVER FCA
WITH LITTLE CHANGE LIKELY THROHGH THE TAF PERIOD.  MAINLY MVFR
CIGS AND VSBY WITH WIDESPREAD HIR TRRN OBSCD. GRADUALLY LOWERING
CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR CONDS DVLPG. WK UVM ASSOC WITH
WK 500 HPA CUT OFF OVER RGN...AND LOW LVL ATLC MOISTURE INFLOW
WILL RESULT IN SCT -SHSN/ISOLD ZL OVER W NEW ENG AND SOUTHERN MOST
AREAS OF NYS. CONDS IN THESE AREAS COULD BCM WIDESPREAD IFR
OVERNIGHT.

ON MONDAY...LINGERING PATCHY -SN AND OR ZL WILL DIMINISH EARLY.
OTRW IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...FROM THE N TO NE AT LESS THAN 8 KT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT
SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11/SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...11/NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 220222
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
922 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND QUEBEC WILL KEEP A MOIST LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION...WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS INTO MID WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND A BETTER CHANCE
FOR LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY
A STORM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTENSIFY RAPIDLY
AS IT MOVES NORTH TO THE OTTAWA VALLEY. IT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
FEW MINOR TWEEKS TO FCST. FOR THE MOST PART ON TRACK. MASSIVE
INVERSION FM 925HPA TO 725HPA COMBINED WITH LLVL EASTERLY FLOW AND
WEAK UVM WITH 500HPA TROF OVER RGN WILL INSURE ITS MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH LOWERING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. VERY LIGHT -SN OCCURRING ON THE
EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE LITCHFIELD HILLS/BERKS AND TACONICS
OVERNIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE FA WILL BE DRY WITH MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES OVERNIGHT AND LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS MOISTURE
STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA AND
EVENTUALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA BY MORNING. PARTIAL THICKNESS
VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET MIXING IN. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH
OF A DROP FROM DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...FREEZING RAIN WILL LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH ALL RAIN FROM MID
MORNING TUESDAY ON ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

TUESDAY NIGHT A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. AS THE LOW
APPROACHES IT WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
SUCH THAT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS WET AND MILD TO START FOR CHRISTMAS
EVE...AND THEN BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR CHRISTMAS
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH PERHAPS SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CLOSE THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS HAVE MENTIONED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...A
POTENTIAL MULTI-HAZARD EVENT IS POSSIBLE WED INTO THU WITH A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WELL WEST OF THE REGION FROM THE TN
VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE CANADA.  THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING MILDER WX ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS...AND A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE.  ALSO STRONG S TO SW WINDS
AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING SFC CYCLONE ARE EXPECTED WED
INTO WED PM...AND A BAND OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.  THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS COUPLED WITH 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 24 HRS OR LESS...AND SNOW MELT COULD PRODUCE
SOME MINOR HYDRO ISSUES.  ALSO THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...AND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 970 HPA OR LOWER OVER WRN QUEBEC COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG W/NW WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS.

WED-WED NIGHT...INITIAL BURST OF RAINFALL DURING THE DAY ON WED WILL
BE WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285/290K SFC.  THE WARM FRONT
SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AN ANOMALOUS
SOUTHERLY LLJ JET OF 40-60 KTS AT H850 WILL ADVECT IN ANOMALOUS PWAT
VALUES OF 3 TO 5 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
GEFS.  THE +V-WIND ANOMALIES /SOUTHERLIES/ ARE 2 TO 3 STD DEVS ABOVE
NORMAL.  THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  H850 TEMPS RISE TO +10C TO
+12C IN THE WARM SECTOR.  THE NARROW COLD FRONT RAINBAND LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM BTWN
06Z-12Z/THU...AS THE CYCLONE DEEPENS AND INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES
N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY.  HIGH TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS EVE WILL BE IN THE
MID TO U50S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST /NEARLY 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/...AND M40S TO L50S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  AS
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN WED NIGHT...EXPECT SOME OF THE RAIN TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE SRN DACKS.  PERHAPS AN
INCH OR SO OF WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE.  LOWS CHRISTMAS MORNING WILL BE
IN THE MID TO U30S WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER TO
MID 40S FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EAST.

CHRISTMAS-CHRISTMAS NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER
WRN QUEBEC NEAR JAMES BAY.  SIGNIFICANT MSLP PRESSURE RISES WILL BE
OCCURRING OVER THE FCST AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.  BLUSTERY W/NW WINDS OF 15 TO 30
MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE DEEPER
MIXING AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT.  A WIND HEADLINE
MAY BE NEEDED HERE FOR PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.  SOME WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE WRN DACKS...AND WRN
GREENS.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M30S TO U40S FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA.  THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF CHRISTMAS NIGHT WITH
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS WEST OF THE TRI CITIES.  LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID 20S TO L30S.

FRI-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RIDGES IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE
MID LEVEL FLOW W/SW ALOFT.  A CLIPPER TYPE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SRN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY.  THIS SYSTEM LIFTS
N/NE INTO QUEBEC WITH SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.  SOME ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY GET INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  HIGH WILL BE IN
THE M30S TO M40S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO L30S.  HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COLDER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE L30S TO U30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO L40S
IN THE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...NORTHEAST AND EAST COAST.  THE GFS HAS WEAK
IMPULSES IN THE W/NW CYCLONIC FLOW FOCUSING LAKE EFFECT AND W/NW
UPSLOPE SNOWFALL.  THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
HANGING CLOSE TO THE COAST.  A COASTAL WAVE MOVES ALONG IT SUNDAY
FOR SOME SNOWFALL FOR MOST OF THE REGION.  A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS...SO A LOW CHC OF SNOWFALL WAS USED FOR THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA ON SUNDAY.  TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE FOR LATE DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRATUS DECK REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER MASSIVE INVERSIONS OVER FCA
WITH LITTLE CHANGE LIKELY THROHGH THE TAF PERIOD.  MAINLY MVFR
CIGS AND VSBY WITH WIDESPREAD HIR TRRN OBSCD. GRADUALLY LOWERING
CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR CONDS DVLPG. WK UVM ASSOC WITH
WK 500 HPA CUT OFF OVER RGN...AND LOW LVL ATLC MOISTURE INFLOW
WILL RESULT IN SCT -SHSN/ISOLD ZL OVER W NEW ENG AND SOUTHERN MOST
AREAS OF NYS. CONDS IN THESE AREAS COULD BCM WIDESPREAD IFR
OVERNIGHT.

ON MONDAY...LINGERING PATCHY -SN AND OR ZL WILL DIMINISH EARLY.
OTRW IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...FROM THE N TO NE AT LESS THAN 8 KT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT
SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11/SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...11/NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 220222
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
922 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND QUEBEC WILL KEEP A MOIST LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION...WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS INTO MID WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND A BETTER CHANCE
FOR LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY
A STORM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTENSIFY RAPIDLY
AS IT MOVES NORTH TO THE OTTAWA VALLEY. IT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
FEW MINOR TWEEKS TO FCST. FOR THE MOST PART ON TRACK. MASSIVE
INVERSION FM 925HPA TO 725HPA COMBINED WITH LLVL EASTERLY FLOW AND
WEAK UVM WITH 500HPA TROF OVER RGN WILL INSURE ITS MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH LOWERING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. VERY LIGHT -SN OCCURRING ON THE
EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE LITCHFIELD HILLS/BERKS AND TACONICS
OVERNIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE FA WILL BE DRY WITH MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES OVERNIGHT AND LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS MOISTURE
STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA AND
EVENTUALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA BY MORNING. PARTIAL THICKNESS
VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET MIXING IN. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH
OF A DROP FROM DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...FREEZING RAIN WILL LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH ALL RAIN FROM MID
MORNING TUESDAY ON ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

TUESDAY NIGHT A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. AS THE LOW
APPROACHES IT WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
SUCH THAT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS WET AND MILD TO START FOR CHRISTMAS
EVE...AND THEN BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR CHRISTMAS
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH PERHAPS SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CLOSE THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS HAVE MENTIONED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...A
POTENTIAL MULTI-HAZARD EVENT IS POSSIBLE WED INTO THU WITH A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WELL WEST OF THE REGION FROM THE TN
VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE CANADA.  THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING MILDER WX ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS...AND A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE.  ALSO STRONG S TO SW WINDS
AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING SFC CYCLONE ARE EXPECTED WED
INTO WED PM...AND A BAND OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.  THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS COUPLED WITH 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 24 HRS OR LESS...AND SNOW MELT COULD PRODUCE
SOME MINOR HYDRO ISSUES.  ALSO THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...AND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 970 HPA OR LOWER OVER WRN QUEBEC COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG W/NW WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS.

WED-WED NIGHT...INITIAL BURST OF RAINFALL DURING THE DAY ON WED WILL
BE WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285/290K SFC.  THE WARM FRONT
SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AN ANOMALOUS
SOUTHERLY LLJ JET OF 40-60 KTS AT H850 WILL ADVECT IN ANOMALOUS PWAT
VALUES OF 3 TO 5 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
GEFS.  THE +V-WIND ANOMALIES /SOUTHERLIES/ ARE 2 TO 3 STD DEVS ABOVE
NORMAL.  THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  H850 TEMPS RISE TO +10C TO
+12C IN THE WARM SECTOR.  THE NARROW COLD FRONT RAINBAND LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM BTWN
06Z-12Z/THU...AS THE CYCLONE DEEPENS AND INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES
N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY.  HIGH TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS EVE WILL BE IN THE
MID TO U50S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST /NEARLY 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/...AND M40S TO L50S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  AS
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN WED NIGHT...EXPECT SOME OF THE RAIN TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE SRN DACKS.  PERHAPS AN
INCH OR SO OF WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE.  LOWS CHRISTMAS MORNING WILL BE
IN THE MID TO U30S WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER TO
MID 40S FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EAST.

CHRISTMAS-CHRISTMAS NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER
WRN QUEBEC NEAR JAMES BAY.  SIGNIFICANT MSLP PRESSURE RISES WILL BE
OCCURRING OVER THE FCST AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.  BLUSTERY W/NW WINDS OF 15 TO 30
MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE DEEPER
MIXING AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT.  A WIND HEADLINE
MAY BE NEEDED HERE FOR PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.  SOME WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE WRN DACKS...AND WRN
GREENS.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M30S TO U40S FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA.  THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF CHRISTMAS NIGHT WITH
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS WEST OF THE TRI CITIES.  LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID 20S TO L30S.

FRI-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RIDGES IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE
MID LEVEL FLOW W/SW ALOFT.  A CLIPPER TYPE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SRN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY.  THIS SYSTEM LIFTS
N/NE INTO QUEBEC WITH SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.  SOME ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY GET INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  HIGH WILL BE IN
THE M30S TO M40S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO L30S.  HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COLDER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE L30S TO U30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO L40S
IN THE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...NORTHEAST AND EAST COAST.  THE GFS HAS WEAK
IMPULSES IN THE W/NW CYCLONIC FLOW FOCUSING LAKE EFFECT AND W/NW
UPSLOPE SNOWFALL.  THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
HANGING CLOSE TO THE COAST.  A COASTAL WAVE MOVES ALONG IT SUNDAY
FOR SOME SNOWFALL FOR MOST OF THE REGION.  A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS...SO A LOW CHC OF SNOWFALL WAS USED FOR THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA ON SUNDAY.  TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE FOR LATE DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRATUS DECK REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER MASSIVE INVERSIONS OVER FCA
WITH LITTLE CHANGE LIKELY THROHGH THE TAF PERIOD.  MAINLY MVFR
CIGS AND VSBY WITH WIDESPREAD HIR TRRN OBSCD. GRADUALLY LOWERING
CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR CONDS DVLPG. WK UVM ASSOC WITH
WK 500 HPA CUT OFF OVER RGN...AND LOW LVL ATLC MOISTURE INFLOW
WILL RESULT IN SCT -SHSN/ISOLD ZL OVER W NEW ENG AND SOUTHERN MOST
AREAS OF NYS. CONDS IN THESE AREAS COULD BCM WIDESPREAD IFR
OVERNIGHT.

ON MONDAY...LINGERING PATCHY -SN AND OR ZL WILL DIMINISH EARLY.
OTRW IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...FROM THE N TO NE AT LESS THAN 8 KT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT
SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11/SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...11/NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 220222
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
922 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND QUEBEC WILL KEEP A MOIST LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION...WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS INTO MID WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND A BETTER CHANCE
FOR LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY
A STORM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTENSIFY RAPIDLY
AS IT MOVES NORTH TO THE OTTAWA VALLEY. IT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
FEW MINOR TWEEKS TO FCST. FOR THE MOST PART ON TRACK. MASSIVE
INVERSION FM 925HPA TO 725HPA COMBINED WITH LLVL EASTERLY FLOW AND
WEAK UVM WITH 500HPA TROF OVER RGN WILL INSURE ITS MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH LOWERING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. VERY LIGHT -SN OCCURRING ON THE
EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE LITCHFIELD HILLS/BERKS AND TACONICS
OVERNIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE FA WILL BE DRY WITH MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES OVERNIGHT AND LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS MOISTURE
STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA AND
EVENTUALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA BY MORNING. PARTIAL THICKNESS
VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET MIXING IN. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH
OF A DROP FROM DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...FREEZING RAIN WILL LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH ALL RAIN FROM MID
MORNING TUESDAY ON ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

TUESDAY NIGHT A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. AS THE LOW
APPROACHES IT WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
SUCH THAT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS WET AND MILD TO START FOR CHRISTMAS
EVE...AND THEN BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR CHRISTMAS
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH PERHAPS SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CLOSE THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS HAVE MENTIONED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...A
POTENTIAL MULTI-HAZARD EVENT IS POSSIBLE WED INTO THU WITH A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WELL WEST OF THE REGION FROM THE TN
VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE CANADA.  THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING MILDER WX ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS...AND A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE.  ALSO STRONG S TO SW WINDS
AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING SFC CYCLONE ARE EXPECTED WED
INTO WED PM...AND A BAND OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.  THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS COUPLED WITH 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 24 HRS OR LESS...AND SNOW MELT COULD PRODUCE
SOME MINOR HYDRO ISSUES.  ALSO THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...AND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 970 HPA OR LOWER OVER WRN QUEBEC COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG W/NW WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS.

WED-WED NIGHT...INITIAL BURST OF RAINFALL DURING THE DAY ON WED WILL
BE WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285/290K SFC.  THE WARM FRONT
SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AN ANOMALOUS
SOUTHERLY LLJ JET OF 40-60 KTS AT H850 WILL ADVECT IN ANOMALOUS PWAT
VALUES OF 3 TO 5 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
GEFS.  THE +V-WIND ANOMALIES /SOUTHERLIES/ ARE 2 TO 3 STD DEVS ABOVE
NORMAL.  THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  H850 TEMPS RISE TO +10C TO
+12C IN THE WARM SECTOR.  THE NARROW COLD FRONT RAINBAND LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM BTWN
06Z-12Z/THU...AS THE CYCLONE DEEPENS AND INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES
N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY.  HIGH TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS EVE WILL BE IN THE
MID TO U50S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST /NEARLY 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/...AND M40S TO L50S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  AS
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN WED NIGHT...EXPECT SOME OF THE RAIN TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE SRN DACKS.  PERHAPS AN
INCH OR SO OF WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE.  LOWS CHRISTMAS MORNING WILL BE
IN THE MID TO U30S WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER TO
MID 40S FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EAST.

CHRISTMAS-CHRISTMAS NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER
WRN QUEBEC NEAR JAMES BAY.  SIGNIFICANT MSLP PRESSURE RISES WILL BE
OCCURRING OVER THE FCST AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.  BLUSTERY W/NW WINDS OF 15 TO 30
MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE DEEPER
MIXING AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT.  A WIND HEADLINE
MAY BE NEEDED HERE FOR PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.  SOME WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE WRN DACKS...AND WRN
GREENS.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M30S TO U40S FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA.  THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF CHRISTMAS NIGHT WITH
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS WEST OF THE TRI CITIES.  LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID 20S TO L30S.

FRI-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RIDGES IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE
MID LEVEL FLOW W/SW ALOFT.  A CLIPPER TYPE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SRN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY.  THIS SYSTEM LIFTS
N/NE INTO QUEBEC WITH SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.  SOME ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY GET INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  HIGH WILL BE IN
THE M30S TO M40S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO L30S.  HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COLDER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE L30S TO U30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO L40S
IN THE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...NORTHEAST AND EAST COAST.  THE GFS HAS WEAK
IMPULSES IN THE W/NW CYCLONIC FLOW FOCUSING LAKE EFFECT AND W/NW
UPSLOPE SNOWFALL.  THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
HANGING CLOSE TO THE COAST.  A COASTAL WAVE MOVES ALONG IT SUNDAY
FOR SOME SNOWFALL FOR MOST OF THE REGION.  A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS...SO A LOW CHC OF SNOWFALL WAS USED FOR THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA ON SUNDAY.  TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE FOR LATE DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRATUS DECK REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER MASSIVE INVERSIONS OVER FCA
WITH LITTLE CHANGE LIKELY THROHGH THE TAF PERIOD.  MAINLY MVFR
CIGS AND VSBY WITH WIDESPREAD HIR TRRN OBSCD. GRADUALLY LOWERING
CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR CONDS DVLPG. WK UVM ASSOC WITH
WK 500 HPA CUT OFF OVER RGN...AND LOW LVL ATLC MOISTURE INFLOW
WILL RESULT IN SCT -SHSN/ISOLD ZL OVER W NEW ENG AND SOUTHERN MOST
AREAS OF NYS. CONDS IN THESE AREAS COULD BCM WIDESPREAD IFR
OVERNIGHT.

ON MONDAY...LINGERING PATCHY -SN AND OR ZL WILL DIMINISH EARLY.
OTRW IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...FROM THE N TO NE AT LESS THAN 8 KT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT
SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11/SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...11/NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 220222
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
922 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND QUEBEC WILL KEEP A MOIST LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION...WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS INTO MID WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND A BETTER CHANCE
FOR LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY
A STORM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTENSIFY RAPIDLY
AS IT MOVES NORTH TO THE OTTAWA VALLEY. IT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
FEW MINOR TWEEKS TO FCST. FOR THE MOST PART ON TRACK. MASSIVE
INVERSION FM 925HPA TO 725HPA COMBINED WITH LLVL EASTERLY FLOW AND
WEAK UVM WITH 500HPA TROF OVER RGN WILL INSURE ITS MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH LOWERING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. VERY LIGHT -SN OCCURRING ON THE
EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE LITCHFIELD HILLS/BERKS AND TACONICS
OVERNIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE FA WILL BE DRY WITH MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES OVERNIGHT AND LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS MOISTURE
STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA AND
EVENTUALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA BY MORNING. PARTIAL THICKNESS
VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET MIXING IN. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH
OF A DROP FROM DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...FREEZING RAIN WILL LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH ALL RAIN FROM MID
MORNING TUESDAY ON ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

TUESDAY NIGHT A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. AS THE LOW
APPROACHES IT WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
SUCH THAT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS WET AND MILD TO START FOR CHRISTMAS
EVE...AND THEN BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR CHRISTMAS
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH PERHAPS SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CLOSE THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS HAVE MENTIONED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...A
POTENTIAL MULTI-HAZARD EVENT IS POSSIBLE WED INTO THU WITH A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WELL WEST OF THE REGION FROM THE TN
VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE CANADA.  THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING MILDER WX ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS...AND A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE.  ALSO STRONG S TO SW WINDS
AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING SFC CYCLONE ARE EXPECTED WED
INTO WED PM...AND A BAND OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.  THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS COUPLED WITH 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 24 HRS OR LESS...AND SNOW MELT COULD PRODUCE
SOME MINOR HYDRO ISSUES.  ALSO THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...AND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 970 HPA OR LOWER OVER WRN QUEBEC COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG W/NW WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS.

WED-WED NIGHT...INITIAL BURST OF RAINFALL DURING THE DAY ON WED WILL
BE WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285/290K SFC.  THE WARM FRONT
SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AN ANOMALOUS
SOUTHERLY LLJ JET OF 40-60 KTS AT H850 WILL ADVECT IN ANOMALOUS PWAT
VALUES OF 3 TO 5 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
GEFS.  THE +V-WIND ANOMALIES /SOUTHERLIES/ ARE 2 TO 3 STD DEVS ABOVE
NORMAL.  THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  H850 TEMPS RISE TO +10C TO
+12C IN THE WARM SECTOR.  THE NARROW COLD FRONT RAINBAND LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM BTWN
06Z-12Z/THU...AS THE CYCLONE DEEPENS AND INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES
N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY.  HIGH TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS EVE WILL BE IN THE
MID TO U50S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST /NEARLY 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/...AND M40S TO L50S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  AS
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN WED NIGHT...EXPECT SOME OF THE RAIN TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE SRN DACKS.  PERHAPS AN
INCH OR SO OF WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE.  LOWS CHRISTMAS MORNING WILL BE
IN THE MID TO U30S WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER TO
MID 40S FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EAST.

CHRISTMAS-CHRISTMAS NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER
WRN QUEBEC NEAR JAMES BAY.  SIGNIFICANT MSLP PRESSURE RISES WILL BE
OCCURRING OVER THE FCST AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.  BLUSTERY W/NW WINDS OF 15 TO 30
MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE DEEPER
MIXING AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT.  A WIND HEADLINE
MAY BE NEEDED HERE FOR PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.  SOME WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE WRN DACKS...AND WRN
GREENS.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M30S TO U40S FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA.  THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF CHRISTMAS NIGHT WITH
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS WEST OF THE TRI CITIES.  LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID 20S TO L30S.

FRI-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RIDGES IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE
MID LEVEL FLOW W/SW ALOFT.  A CLIPPER TYPE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SRN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY.  THIS SYSTEM LIFTS
N/NE INTO QUEBEC WITH SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.  SOME ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY GET INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  HIGH WILL BE IN
THE M30S TO M40S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO L30S.  HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COLDER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE L30S TO U30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO L40S
IN THE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...NORTHEAST AND EAST COAST.  THE GFS HAS WEAK
IMPULSES IN THE W/NW CYCLONIC FLOW FOCUSING LAKE EFFECT AND W/NW
UPSLOPE SNOWFALL.  THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
HANGING CLOSE TO THE COAST.  A COASTAL WAVE MOVES ALONG IT SUNDAY
FOR SOME SNOWFALL FOR MOST OF THE REGION.  A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS...SO A LOW CHC OF SNOWFALL WAS USED FOR THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA ON SUNDAY.  TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE FOR LATE DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRATUS DECK REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER MASSIVE INVERSIONS OVER FCA
WITH LITTLE CHANGE LIKELY THROHGH THE TAF PERIOD.  MAINLY MVFR
CIGS AND VSBY WITH WIDESPREAD HIR TRRN OBSCD. GRADUALLY LOWERING
CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR CONDS DVLPG. WK UVM ASSOC WITH
WK 500 HPA CUT OFF OVER RGN...AND LOW LVL ATLC MOISTURE INFLOW
WILL RESULT IN SCT -SHSN/ISOLD ZL OVER W NEW ENG AND SOUTHERN MOST
AREAS OF NYS. CONDS IN THESE AREAS COULD BCM WIDESPREAD IFR
OVERNIGHT.

ON MONDAY...LINGERING PATCHY -SN AND OR ZL WILL DIMINISH EARLY.
OTRW IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...FROM THE N TO NE AT LESS THAN 8 KT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT
SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11/SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...11/NAS







000
FXUS61 KBGM 220222
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
922 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY AS
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE. A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN MIDWEST IN
COMBINATION WITH A LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION, FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY RAIN INTO
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...
THE MAIN GRID CHANGES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WERE TO AMP UP THE
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TO NEAR OVERCAST. NO REASON TO BELIEVE,
BASED ON CURRENT CLOUD COVER AND THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION
ALOFT, THAT WE WILL SEE APPRECIABLE CLEARING AT ANY POINT.

THE OVERNIGHT MINS NEEDED SOME WORK, TOO. MAINLY BROUGHT A FEW
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE WYOMING VALLEY WHERE THE CURRENT
TEMPS WERE CLOSE TO THE PROJECTED MINS.

OTHERWISE, THE PREVIOUS GRIDS LOOK GREAT AND ONLY NEEDED MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.


4 PM UPDATRE...
NO ONE CAN SAY THE BGM/S REPUTATION FOR CLDS IS UNDESERVED AFT
THIS STRETCH OF OVC WX. AREA OF CLRG OVER THE NRN FINGER LAKES AND
ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN QUICKLY FILLED IN AS HTG BUBBLED UP ADTNL
MOISTURE INTO A NEW SC DECK. WHILE SOME OF THE MODELS INSIST THAT
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO CLR THE AREA THIS EVE INTO MON...
STUBBORNLY STRNG INV REMAINS IN PLACE...AND WITH LGT WINDS AND NO
MIXING...SEE LTL TO BRK UP THE CLDS IN PLACE. ALSO...SAT IMAGES
SHOW A SOLID DECK ALL THE WAY BACK INTO EERN OH THIS AFT. WHEN
WINDS FNLY DO DVLP MON MRNG...THEY/RE FROM THE SE PTNLY ADDING
MOISTURE TO THE SNDG. SO...HAVE GONE AGAINST MODEL GUID AND GONE
WITH EXPERIENCE AND CONSISTENCY AND CONTD THE CLDS THRU THE NEAR
TERM.

TEMPS ENDED UP STAYING BLO GUID FCST TODAY AS THE STUBBORN CLDS
DID NOT ALLOW ANY HTG AS ANTICIPATED BY MOS. XPCT LTL DIURNAL CHG
OVRNGT WITH THE CLDS. FOR MON...SOME WEAK WAA DOES OCCUR WITH THE
SELY FLOW SO HAVE GONE NEARER GUID FCST. SOME LGT PCPN MAY DVLP
OVER THE SERN ZONES ON MON AS A WEAK WV PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH.
TEMPS MRGNL SO HAVE GONE WITH MIXED PCPN WHICH BLENDED WELL WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/...
300 PM EST UPDATE... A LARGE STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT NY
AND PA STARTING LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUES MORNING AND MAY LINGER
THROUGH LATE THURS NIGHT...

MANY UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST WITH THIS STORM. BUT...
SYNOPTICALLY... GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE
UPPR LOW. GUIDANCE ALSO SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD IDEA OF THE OVERALL
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC LOW AND IT MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

LATE MONDAY NIGHT THE POTENT UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD
ALONG AND SLIGHTLY E OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND GENERATE
CYCLOGENESIS OVR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF KS AND NE. THIS SFC LOW
WILL THEN TRACK NE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. BY TUES
MORNING A STRONG VORT MAXIMA WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPR
TROUGH OVR FAR S TX GENERATING A SECONDARY SFC LOW/SFC TROUGH OVR
E LA. AS THIS OCCURS... THE MAIN SFC LOW OVER THE NORTH WILL BECOME
OCCLUDED.

THE UPPR TROUGH WILL START TO SHIFT EAST TUES NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST THE SECONDARY SFC LOW/TROUGH WILL MERGE WITH THE
PRIMARY SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARDS OUR CWA AND
BRING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING LATE MONDAY NIGHT
LASTING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AS THIS SYSTEM STARTS TO GENERATE PRECIP... EXPECT THE PRECIP TO
START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX AND MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. THIS IS DUE TO WAA AND ISENTROPHIC LIFT AHEAD THE
OCCLUDED FRONT. PRECIP WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE N AND WEST. A STRONG
LLJ WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CWA LATE TUES MORNING/AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN STRONG WAA AND GUSTY WINDS OVR THE REGION. BY TUES
AFTERNOON THE WAA WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AND ALL PRECIP WILL
FALL AS RAIN. RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH
WED NIGHT. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS PWAT
VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE COLDER ATTENDANT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL START TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION THURS MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY GUSTY BEHIND
THE FROPA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE VERY COLD AIR WITH IT DUE IT
WHERE IT ORIGINATED. IT IS A PACIFIC AIRMASS NOT AN ARCTIC.
THUS... TEMPS WILL NOT DROP DRAMATICALLY POST FRONTAL.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED ATTM TO BE HEAVY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FNT SWINGS THRU FRI NGT AND RETURNS THE AREA TO MORE TYPICAL
EARLY WINTER WX. CONTD CAA WILL GRADUALLY LWR TEMPS THRU THE PD
INCRSG THE CHANCE OF LE SNOW SHWRS. SHEARED FLOW ININTIALLY BHD
THE FNT WILL LIMIT THE AMT OF LE...WHILE THE DEEPER COLD AIR AITS
TO JUST BEYOND THE PD LATE SUN AND EARLY MON.

TEMPS WILL AVG NEAR NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN ACROSS ALL TAF SITES IN
CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. CIGS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 1500 AND
2500 FEET THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CIGS POP UP
TO MVFR AT KELM MON PM. OTHERWISE SOLID MVFR CIG THRU 00Z TUE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTH THIS EVENING AND SHIFT TO SE AT 5 KNOTS
OR SO BY MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...MAINLY MVFR CIG.

TUE TO THURS...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-
THURS.

FRI...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/DJP
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DJN







000
FXUS61 KBTV 220219
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
919 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END WITH CLOUDS LINGERING
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY...BUT A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION
CHANGES TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ON
CHRISTMAS EVE ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 919 PM EST SUNDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO CLOUDS AS OF 9 PM
TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. ONLY NOTICEABLE CHANGE
WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BY SOME 2-3 DEGREES
BASED OFF LATEST GUIDANCE AND TD VALUES. EARLIER MINS APPEARED
JUST A TAD TOO COOL. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND JUST A FEW STRAY FLURRIES HERE AND THERE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EST SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM WILL TAKE PLACE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING
ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
TAKING PLACE. THIS WILL SET UP A THERMAL PROFILE CONDUCIVE TO
MIXED PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT
NEVERTHELESS SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION
BECOMES ALL RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STEADIER RAIN AND WIND STILL
NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 357 PM EST SUNDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA
OF RAINY AND POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY INTO
THE MORNING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS DAY.

WEDNESDAY MORNING THE PRECIPITATION CHANCE INCREASES QUICKLY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE MIDWEST. A PULSE OF ENERGY
WILL SLIDE UP THE TROUGH AND THEN LIFT OVER THE NORTHEAST BRINGING
CATEGORICAL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THE
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE SHIFTING MORE TOWARDS
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THAT WILL CONTINUE THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE LOW LEVELS WHICH WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A PERSISTENT RAIN EVENT ON WEDNESDAY. THE LONG TERM
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED THE TREND OF WEAKENING THE 850MB JET OVER
THE REGION AND DEVELOP THE SYSTEM AS MORE OF A STRONG OPEN WAVE
INSTEAD OF A CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL STILL PROVIDE FOR CHANCES OF
30-40 MPH GUSTS BUT WITHOUT THE EASTERN COMPONENT THE CHANCES OF
STRONG DOWNSLOPE WIND GUSTS ARE WEAKENING. THE BIGGEST AREA OF
CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND PERHAPS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE
ADIRONDACKS.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM...WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL
AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
AMOUNTS WILL VARY A BIT DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS. HIGHEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG SOUTH FACING
SLOPES OF SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS  OVER
NORTHWEST VERMONT AND FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE COASTAL AREAS OF
NEW ENGLAND WOULD SEE MORE RAINFALL FOR THIS EVENT. FLOODING STILL
CONTINUES TO REMAIN A POTENTIAL ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S...AND LITTLE DROP OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF
RAIN AND MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THE
SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN SMALL STREAMS.
RIGHT NOW RIVER GAUGES ARE SHOWING RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE LOW...SO
WHILE SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DON`T EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING ISSUES.

RAIN CONTINUES EARLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY...THEN SOME DRYING EXPECTED WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS COLDER AIR RETURNS. TEMPS IN
VALLEYS REMAIN MILD THOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH READINGS IN
THE 40S.

DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS
A WEAK CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...GENERAL IDEA OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO LOW CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL MIST. VERY LIGHT WINDS (UNDER 10
KNOTS) AND SATURATED RH CONDITIONS THROUGH A DEEP DEPTH OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL FAVOR PERIODS OF MIST AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. WHILE CEILINGS WILL PREDOMINANTLY BE MVFR THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD...IFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO EXIST BUT BE MOST FAVORED
AT MSS OVERNIGHT. ANY MIST WILL BURN OFF INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
WEAK INVERSION DISSIPATES BUT STILL EXPECT THERE TO BE PLENTY OF
MVFR CEILINGS AROUND. PRECIPITATION THEN APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH VCSH INDICATED AT RUT. ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT SHOULD INITIALLY FALL WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT SNOW, BUT BE MORE LIKELY AFTER 00Z ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-18Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...LOCONTO/DEAL



000
FXUS61 KBTV 220219
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
919 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END WITH CLOUDS LINGERING
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY...BUT A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION
CHANGES TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ON
CHRISTMAS EVE ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 919 PM EST SUNDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO CLOUDS AS OF 9 PM
TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. ONLY NOTICEABLE CHANGE
WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BY SOME 2-3 DEGREES
BASED OFF LATEST GUIDANCE AND TD VALUES. EARLIER MINS APPEARED
JUST A TAD TOO COOL. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND JUST A FEW STRAY FLURRIES HERE AND THERE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EST SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM WILL TAKE PLACE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING
ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
TAKING PLACE. THIS WILL SET UP A THERMAL PROFILE CONDUCIVE TO
MIXED PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT
NEVERTHELESS SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION
BECOMES ALL RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STEADIER RAIN AND WIND STILL
NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 357 PM EST SUNDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA
OF RAINY AND POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY INTO
THE MORNING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS DAY.

WEDNESDAY MORNING THE PRECIPITATION CHANCE INCREASES QUICKLY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE MIDWEST. A PULSE OF ENERGY
WILL SLIDE UP THE TROUGH AND THEN LIFT OVER THE NORTHEAST BRINGING
CATEGORICAL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THE
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE SHIFTING MORE TOWARDS
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THAT WILL CONTINUE THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE LOW LEVELS WHICH WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A PERSISTENT RAIN EVENT ON WEDNESDAY. THE LONG TERM
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED THE TREND OF WEAKENING THE 850MB JET OVER
THE REGION AND DEVELOP THE SYSTEM AS MORE OF A STRONG OPEN WAVE
INSTEAD OF A CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL STILL PROVIDE FOR CHANCES OF
30-40 MPH GUSTS BUT WITHOUT THE EASTERN COMPONENT THE CHANCES OF
STRONG DOWNSLOPE WIND GUSTS ARE WEAKENING. THE BIGGEST AREA OF
CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND PERHAPS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE
ADIRONDACKS.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM...WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL
AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
AMOUNTS WILL VARY A BIT DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS. HIGHEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG SOUTH FACING
SLOPES OF SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS  OVER
NORTHWEST VERMONT AND FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE COASTAL AREAS OF
NEW ENGLAND WOULD SEE MORE RAINFALL FOR THIS EVENT. FLOODING STILL
CONTINUES TO REMAIN A POTENTIAL ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S...AND LITTLE DROP OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF
RAIN AND MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THE
SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN SMALL STREAMS.
RIGHT NOW RIVER GAUGES ARE SHOWING RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE LOW...SO
WHILE SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DON`T EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING ISSUES.

RAIN CONTINUES EARLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY...THEN SOME DRYING EXPECTED WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS COLDER AIR RETURNS. TEMPS IN
VALLEYS REMAIN MILD THOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH READINGS IN
THE 40S.

DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS
A WEAK CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...GENERAL IDEA OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO LOW CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL MIST. VERY LIGHT WINDS (UNDER 10
KNOTS) AND SATURATED RH CONDITIONS THROUGH A DEEP DEPTH OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL FAVOR PERIODS OF MIST AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. WHILE CEILINGS WILL PREDOMINANTLY BE MVFR THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD...IFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO EXIST BUT BE MOST FAVORED
AT MSS OVERNIGHT. ANY MIST WILL BURN OFF INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
WEAK INVERSION DISSIPATES BUT STILL EXPECT THERE TO BE PLENTY OF
MVFR CEILINGS AROUND. PRECIPITATION THEN APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH VCSH INDICATED AT RUT. ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT SHOULD INITIALLY FALL WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT SNOW, BUT BE MORE LIKELY AFTER 00Z ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-18Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...LOCONTO/DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 220219
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
919 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END WITH CLOUDS LINGERING
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY...BUT A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION
CHANGES TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ON
CHRISTMAS EVE ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 919 PM EST SUNDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO CLOUDS AS OF 9 PM
TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. ONLY NOTICEABLE CHANGE
WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BY SOME 2-3 DEGREES
BASED OFF LATEST GUIDANCE AND TD VALUES. EARLIER MINS APPEARED
JUST A TAD TOO COOL. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND JUST A FEW STRAY FLURRIES HERE AND THERE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EST SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM WILL TAKE PLACE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING
ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
TAKING PLACE. THIS WILL SET UP A THERMAL PROFILE CONDUCIVE TO
MIXED PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT
NEVERTHELESS SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION
BECOMES ALL RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STEADIER RAIN AND WIND STILL
NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 357 PM EST SUNDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA
OF RAINY AND POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY INTO
THE MORNING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS DAY.

WEDNESDAY MORNING THE PRECIPITATION CHANCE INCREASES QUICKLY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE MIDWEST. A PULSE OF ENERGY
WILL SLIDE UP THE TROUGH AND THEN LIFT OVER THE NORTHEAST BRINGING
CATEGORICAL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THE
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE SHIFTING MORE TOWARDS
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THAT WILL CONTINUE THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE LOW LEVELS WHICH WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A PERSISTENT RAIN EVENT ON WEDNESDAY. THE LONG TERM
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED THE TREND OF WEAKENING THE 850MB JET OVER
THE REGION AND DEVELOP THE SYSTEM AS MORE OF A STRONG OPEN WAVE
INSTEAD OF A CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL STILL PROVIDE FOR CHANCES OF
30-40 MPH GUSTS BUT WITHOUT THE EASTERN COMPONENT THE CHANCES OF
STRONG DOWNSLOPE WIND GUSTS ARE WEAKENING. THE BIGGEST AREA OF
CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND PERHAPS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE
ADIRONDACKS.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM...WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL
AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
AMOUNTS WILL VARY A BIT DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS. HIGHEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG SOUTH FACING
SLOPES OF SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS  OVER
NORTHWEST VERMONT AND FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE COASTAL AREAS OF
NEW ENGLAND WOULD SEE MORE RAINFALL FOR THIS EVENT. FLOODING STILL
CONTINUES TO REMAIN A POTENTIAL ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S...AND LITTLE DROP OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF
RAIN AND MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THE
SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN SMALL STREAMS.
RIGHT NOW RIVER GAUGES ARE SHOWING RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE LOW...SO
WHILE SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DON`T EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING ISSUES.

RAIN CONTINUES EARLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY...THEN SOME DRYING EXPECTED WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS COLDER AIR RETURNS. TEMPS IN
VALLEYS REMAIN MILD THOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH READINGS IN
THE 40S.

DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS
A WEAK CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...GENERAL IDEA OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO LOW CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL MIST. VERY LIGHT WINDS (UNDER 10
KNOTS) AND SATURATED RH CONDITIONS THROUGH A DEEP DEPTH OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL FAVOR PERIODS OF MIST AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. WHILE CEILINGS WILL PREDOMINANTLY BE MVFR THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD...IFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO EXIST BUT BE MOST FAVORED
AT MSS OVERNIGHT. ANY MIST WILL BURN OFF INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
WEAK INVERSION DISSIPATES BUT STILL EXPECT THERE TO BE PLENTY OF
MVFR CEILINGS AROUND. PRECIPITATION THEN APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH VCSH INDICATED AT RUT. ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT SHOULD INITIALLY FALL WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT SNOW, BUT BE MORE LIKELY AFTER 00Z ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-18Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...LOCONTO/DEAL



000
FXUS61 KOKX 220011
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
711 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTHEAST
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.
THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS WHILE MOVING NORTH TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY WITH A COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH DRY SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CHALLENGING FORECAST DUE TO SUBTLE WEAK FEATURES...AND AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AS UPPER SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST...WITH RIDGING EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. SFC TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN ZONES LINGERS INTO TONIGHT...AND GLOBAL MODELS DO OUTPUT
LIGHT QPF THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.

IF PRECIP DOES INDEED OCCUR...THIS MAY BECOME PROBLEMATIC WITH
REGARD TO PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECASTING.

SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.
AS MENTIONED...MOISTURE IS RATHER SHALLOW...AND THERE IS A CONCERN
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
THAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIQUID. IF SO...SCATTERED SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE
COULD FREEZE ON CONTACT WITH THE COLD SURFACE WHERE TEMPS FALL
BELOW THE FREEZING MARK.

OTHERWISE...IF MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW...VERY
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL BE THE RESULT.

HOWEVER...COMPLICATING THINGS IS THAT TEMPS THROUGH 850 HPA OR SO
WARM SLIGHTLY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. SO EVEN IF MOISTURE IS DEEP
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW PRODUCING PROCESSES...ANY PRECIP MAY
CHANGE OVER THE RAIN ANYWAY AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

OTHERWISE...CLOUDS LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THESE LOW
CLOUDS COULD BREAK UP SOMEWHAT AS RIDGE BUILDS.

TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF LATEST MOS AND FORECAST DATABASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AHEAD OF DIGGING MID WEST TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A WARM FRONT OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC...DRIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA.

WEAK LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DO NOT EXPECT REAL HIGH COVERAGE AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 30S MONDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST. THESE TEMPS LIKELY
REMAIN STEADY MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO EAST FLOW AND CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ALL GUIDANCE DOES NOT MAINTAIN A CLOSED
CIRCULATION AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OTHERWISE THERE IS GENERALLY
CONSISTENCY WITH THE MIDWESTERN LOW DEEPENING AND TRACKING NORTHWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FULL LATITUDE UPPER
TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. ONLY CHANGE HAS BEEN A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
COME THROUGH JUST AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...AND CLEAR THE EASTERN ZONES
JUST AFTER 12Z CHRISTMAS DAY. ALSO...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF PROFILES
ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE
EVENT.

WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
STRONG LIFT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. ALSO THERE
WILL BE A DEEP INFLUX OF GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. UP TO 2 INCHES WILL LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION.

IN THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY WINDS AND GUSTS INCREASE
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY. THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO NOW BE DRY.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES LATER SATURDAY AND TRACKS NORTH SUNDAY BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THE STORM WILL BE INLAND AND THE AREA WILL
BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH AN INVERSION WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MON...WITH EVEN SOME LOCATIONS BEING IFR. LATEST SAT
IMAGERY IS INDICATING SOME OF SLIGHT CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA...SO
CONDS MAY TEMPO INCREASE TO VFR FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVE. THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO COME BACK DOWN HOWEVER. THERE IS ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING OF CONDS DROPPING TO IFR.

POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE/SNOW WILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING
DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF...MOSTLY EAST OF THE NYC TERMINALS.

A WEAK NLY FLOW AT LESS THAN 10 KT GRADUALLY VEERS AROUND TO E/NE
BY MON AFT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MON NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE IN E FLOW AND RAIN.
.TUE-TUE NIGHT...IFR LIKELY IN RAIN. E WINDS 10-20 KT...BECOMING
SE.
.WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT BECMG LIKELY. IFR WITH +RA. S/SE WINDS
15-20G20-25KT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW LATE WED NIGHT.
.THU...VFR CONDS RETURNING BY AFTN. -SHRA IN THE MORNING. W WINDS
15-20G25-35KT.
.FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT...SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS. A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND DRIFTS NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE WATERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. EAST WINDS INCREASE
SLIGHTLY BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

SEAS REMAIN 4 FT OR LESS OVER THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW INTO TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. WIND AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WIND AND GUSTS WILL
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. THEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE WIND GUSTS ON THE OCEAN INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WIND SHIFTS
TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND BECOMES VERY GUSTY IN THE COLDER AIR.
GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS ALL THE WATERS DURING
THURSDAY AND THEN SUBSIDE TO BELOW GALE FORCE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT DURING FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH DRY SATURDAY...AND WIND AND SEA ARE
LIKELY TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVEL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY
JUST LIGHT AMOUNTS.

RAINFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING COULD TOTAL
1 1/2 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KOKX 220011
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
711 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTHEAST
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.
THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS WHILE MOVING NORTH TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY WITH A COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH DRY SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CHALLENGING FORECAST DUE TO SUBTLE WEAK FEATURES...AND AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AS UPPER SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST...WITH RIDGING EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. SFC TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN ZONES LINGERS INTO TONIGHT...AND GLOBAL MODELS DO OUTPUT
LIGHT QPF THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.

IF PRECIP DOES INDEED OCCUR...THIS MAY BECOME PROBLEMATIC WITH
REGARD TO PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECASTING.

SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.
AS MENTIONED...MOISTURE IS RATHER SHALLOW...AND THERE IS A CONCERN
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
THAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIQUID. IF SO...SCATTERED SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE
COULD FREEZE ON CONTACT WITH THE COLD SURFACE WHERE TEMPS FALL
BELOW THE FREEZING MARK.

OTHERWISE...IF MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW...VERY
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL BE THE RESULT.

HOWEVER...COMPLICATING THINGS IS THAT TEMPS THROUGH 850 HPA OR SO
WARM SLIGHTLY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. SO EVEN IF MOISTURE IS DEEP
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW PRODUCING PROCESSES...ANY PRECIP MAY
CHANGE OVER THE RAIN ANYWAY AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

OTHERWISE...CLOUDS LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THESE LOW
CLOUDS COULD BREAK UP SOMEWHAT AS RIDGE BUILDS.

TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF LATEST MOS AND FORECAST DATABASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AHEAD OF DIGGING MID WEST TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A WARM FRONT OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC...DRIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA.

WEAK LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DO NOT EXPECT REAL HIGH COVERAGE AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 30S MONDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST. THESE TEMPS LIKELY
REMAIN STEADY MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO EAST FLOW AND CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ALL GUIDANCE DOES NOT MAINTAIN A CLOSED
CIRCULATION AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OTHERWISE THERE IS GENERALLY
CONSISTENCY WITH THE MIDWESTERN LOW DEEPENING AND TRACKING NORTHWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FULL LATITUDE UPPER
TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. ONLY CHANGE HAS BEEN A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
COME THROUGH JUST AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...AND CLEAR THE EASTERN ZONES
JUST AFTER 12Z CHRISTMAS DAY. ALSO...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF PROFILES
ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE
EVENT.

WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
STRONG LIFT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. ALSO THERE
WILL BE A DEEP INFLUX OF GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. UP TO 2 INCHES WILL LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION.

IN THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY WINDS AND GUSTS INCREASE
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY. THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO NOW BE DRY.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES LATER SATURDAY AND TRACKS NORTH SUNDAY BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THE STORM WILL BE INLAND AND THE AREA WILL
BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH AN INVERSION WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MON...WITH EVEN SOME LOCATIONS BEING IFR. LATEST SAT
IMAGERY IS INDICATING SOME OF SLIGHT CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA...SO
CONDS MAY TEMPO INCREASE TO VFR FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVE. THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO COME BACK DOWN HOWEVER. THERE IS ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING OF CONDS DROPPING TO IFR.

POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE/SNOW WILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING
DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF...MOSTLY EAST OF THE NYC TERMINALS.

A WEAK NLY FLOW AT LESS THAN 10 KT GRADUALLY VEERS AROUND TO E/NE
BY MON AFT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MON NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE IN E FLOW AND RAIN.
.TUE-TUE NIGHT...IFR LIKELY IN RAIN. E WINDS 10-20 KT...BECOMING
SE.
.WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT BECMG LIKELY. IFR WITH +RA. S/SE WINDS
15-20G20-25KT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW LATE WED NIGHT.
.THU...VFR CONDS RETURNING BY AFTN. -SHRA IN THE MORNING. W WINDS
15-20G25-35KT.
.FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT...SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS. A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND DRIFTS NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE WATERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. EAST WINDS INCREASE
SLIGHTLY BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

SEAS REMAIN 4 FT OR LESS OVER THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW INTO TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. WIND AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WIND AND GUSTS WILL
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. THEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE WIND GUSTS ON THE OCEAN INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WIND SHIFTS
TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND BECOMES VERY GUSTY IN THE COLDER AIR.
GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS ALL THE WATERS DURING
THURSDAY AND THEN SUBSIDE TO BELOW GALE FORCE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT DURING FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH DRY SATURDAY...AND WIND AND SEA ARE
LIKELY TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVEL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY
JUST LIGHT AMOUNTS.

RAINFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING COULD TOTAL
1 1/2 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KOKX 220011
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
711 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTHEAST
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.
THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS WHILE MOVING NORTH TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY WITH A COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH DRY SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CHALLENGING FORECAST DUE TO SUBTLE WEAK FEATURES...AND AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AS UPPER SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST...WITH RIDGING EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. SFC TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN ZONES LINGERS INTO TONIGHT...AND GLOBAL MODELS DO OUTPUT
LIGHT QPF THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.

IF PRECIP DOES INDEED OCCUR...THIS MAY BECOME PROBLEMATIC WITH
REGARD TO PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECASTING.

SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.
AS MENTIONED...MOISTURE IS RATHER SHALLOW...AND THERE IS A CONCERN
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
THAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIQUID. IF SO...SCATTERED SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE
COULD FREEZE ON CONTACT WITH THE COLD SURFACE WHERE TEMPS FALL
BELOW THE FREEZING MARK.

OTHERWISE...IF MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW...VERY
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL BE THE RESULT.

HOWEVER...COMPLICATING THINGS IS THAT TEMPS THROUGH 850 HPA OR SO
WARM SLIGHTLY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. SO EVEN IF MOISTURE IS DEEP
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW PRODUCING PROCESSES...ANY PRECIP MAY
CHANGE OVER THE RAIN ANYWAY AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

OTHERWISE...CLOUDS LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THESE LOW
CLOUDS COULD BREAK UP SOMEWHAT AS RIDGE BUILDS.

TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF LATEST MOS AND FORECAST DATABASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AHEAD OF DIGGING MID WEST TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A WARM FRONT OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC...DRIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA.

WEAK LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DO NOT EXPECT REAL HIGH COVERAGE AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 30S MONDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST. THESE TEMPS LIKELY
REMAIN STEADY MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO EAST FLOW AND CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ALL GUIDANCE DOES NOT MAINTAIN A CLOSED
CIRCULATION AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OTHERWISE THERE IS GENERALLY
CONSISTENCY WITH THE MIDWESTERN LOW DEEPENING AND TRACKING NORTHWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FULL LATITUDE UPPER
TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. ONLY CHANGE HAS BEEN A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
COME THROUGH JUST AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...AND CLEAR THE EASTERN ZONES
JUST AFTER 12Z CHRISTMAS DAY. ALSO...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF PROFILES
ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE
EVENT.

WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
STRONG LIFT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. ALSO THERE
WILL BE A DEEP INFLUX OF GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. UP TO 2 INCHES WILL LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION.

IN THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY WINDS AND GUSTS INCREASE
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY. THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO NOW BE DRY.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES LATER SATURDAY AND TRACKS NORTH SUNDAY BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THE STORM WILL BE INLAND AND THE AREA WILL
BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH AN INVERSION WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MON...WITH EVEN SOME LOCATIONS BEING IFR. LATEST SAT
IMAGERY IS INDICATING SOME OF SLIGHT CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA...SO
CONDS MAY TEMPO INCREASE TO VFR FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVE. THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO COME BACK DOWN HOWEVER. THERE IS ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING OF CONDS DROPPING TO IFR.

POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE/SNOW WILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING
DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF...MOSTLY EAST OF THE NYC TERMINALS.

A WEAK NLY FLOW AT LESS THAN 10 KT GRADUALLY VEERS AROUND TO E/NE
BY MON AFT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MON NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE IN E FLOW AND RAIN.
.TUE-TUE NIGHT...IFR LIKELY IN RAIN. E WINDS 10-20 KT...BECOMING
SE.
.WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT BECMG LIKELY. IFR WITH +RA. S/SE WINDS
15-20G20-25KT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW LATE WED NIGHT.
.THU...VFR CONDS RETURNING BY AFTN. -SHRA IN THE MORNING. W WINDS
15-20G25-35KT.
.FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT...SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS. A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND DRIFTS NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE WATERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. EAST WINDS INCREASE
SLIGHTLY BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

SEAS REMAIN 4 FT OR LESS OVER THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW INTO TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. WIND AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WIND AND GUSTS WILL
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. THEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE WIND GUSTS ON THE OCEAN INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WIND SHIFTS
TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND BECOMES VERY GUSTY IN THE COLDER AIR.
GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS ALL THE WATERS DURING
THURSDAY AND THEN SUBSIDE TO BELOW GALE FORCE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT DURING FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH DRY SATURDAY...AND WIND AND SEA ARE
LIKELY TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVEL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY
JUST LIGHT AMOUNTS.

RAINFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING COULD TOTAL
1 1/2 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KBTV 212356
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
656 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END WITH CLOUDS LINGERING
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY...BUT A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION
CHANGES TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ON
CHRISTMAS EVE ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 656 PM EST SUNDAY...OTHER THAN A FEW FLURRIES HERE AND
THERE...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ALONG WITH SEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES. SOME BREAKS POSSIBLE HERE AND THERE OVERNIGHT...ESP
IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND 1 KM AGL RAP RH
PROGS. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY/TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TRENDS...BUT MAINLY NOISE LEVEL ADJUSTMENTS WITH CURRENT FORECAST
IN GOOD SHAPE. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 339 EST SUNDAY...
LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE
CLOUDS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EST SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM WILL TAKE PLACE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING
ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
TAKING PLACE. THIS WILL SET UP A THERMAL PROFILE CONDUCIVE TO
MIXED PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT
NEVERTHELESS SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION
BECOMES ALL RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STEADIER RAIN AND WIND STILL
NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 357 PM EST SUNDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA
OF RAINY AND POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY INTO
THE MORNING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS DAY.

WEDNESDAY MORNING THE PRECIPITATION CHANCE INCREASES QUICKLY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE MIDWEST. A PULSE OF ENERGY
WILL SLIDE UP THE TROUGH AND THEN LIFT OVER THE NORTHEAST BRINGING
CATEGORICAL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THE
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE SHIFTING MORE TOWARDS
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THAT WILL CONTINUE THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE LOW LEVELS WHICH WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A PERSISTENT RAIN EVENT ON WEDNESDAY. THE LONG TERM
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED THE TREND OF WEAKENING THE 850MB JET OVER
THE REGION AND DEVELOP THE SYSTEM AS MORE OF A STRONG OPEN WAVE
INSTEAD OF A CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL STILL PROVIDE FOR CHANCES OF
30-40 MPH GUSTS BUT WITHOUT THE EASTERN COMPONENT THE CHANCES OF
STRONG DOWNSLOPE WIND GUSTS ARE WEAKENING. THE BIGGEST AREA OF
CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND PERHAPS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE
ADIRONDACKS.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM...WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL
AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
AMOUNTS WILL VARY A BIT DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS. HIGHEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG SOUTH FACING
SLOPES OF SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS  OVER
NORTHWEST VERMONT AND FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE COASTAL AREAS OF
NEW ENGLAND WOULD SEE MORE RAINFALL FOR THIS EVENT. FLOODING STILL
CONTINUES TO REMAIN A POTENTIAL ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S...AND LITTLE DROP OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF
RAIN AND MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THE
SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN SMALL STREAMS.
RIGHT NOW RIVER GAUGES ARE SHOWING RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE LOW...SO
WHILE SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DON`T EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING ISSUES.

RAIN CONTINUES EARLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY...THEN SOME DRYING EXPECTED WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS COLDER AIR RETURNS. TEMPS IN
VALLEYS REMAIN MILD THOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH READINGS IN
THE 40S.

DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS
A WEAK CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...GENERAL IDEA OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO LOW CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL MIST. VERY LIGHT WINDS (UNDER 10
KNOTS) AND SATURATED RH CONDITIONS THROUGH A DEEP DEPTH OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL FAVOR PERIODS OF MIST AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. WHILE CEILINGS WILL PREDOMINANTLY BE MVFR THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD...IFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO EXIST BUT BE MOST FAVORED
AT MSS OVERNIGHT. ANY MIST WILL BURN OFF INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
WEAK INVERSION DISSIPATES BUT STILL EXPECT THERE TO BE PLENTY OF
MVFR CEILINGS AROUND. PRECIPITATION THEN APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH VCSH INDICATED AT RUT. ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT SHOULD INITIALLY FALL WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT SNOW, BUT BE MORE LIKELY AFTER 00Z ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-18Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...LOCONTO/DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 212356
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
656 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END WITH CLOUDS LINGERING
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY...BUT A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION
CHANGES TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ON
CHRISTMAS EVE ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 656 PM EST SUNDAY...OTHER THAN A FEW FLURRIES HERE AND
THERE...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ALONG WITH SEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES. SOME BREAKS POSSIBLE HERE AND THERE OVERNIGHT...ESP
IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND 1 KM AGL RAP RH
PROGS. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY/TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TRENDS...BUT MAINLY NOISE LEVEL ADJUSTMENTS WITH CURRENT FORECAST
IN GOOD SHAPE. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 339 EST SUNDAY...
LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE
CLOUDS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EST SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM WILL TAKE PLACE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING
ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
TAKING PLACE. THIS WILL SET UP A THERMAL PROFILE CONDUCIVE TO
MIXED PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT
NEVERTHELESS SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION
BECOMES ALL RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STEADIER RAIN AND WIND STILL
NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 357 PM EST SUNDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA
OF RAINY AND POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY INTO
THE MORNING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS DAY.

WEDNESDAY MORNING THE PRECIPITATION CHANCE INCREASES QUICKLY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE MIDWEST. A PULSE OF ENERGY
WILL SLIDE UP THE TROUGH AND THEN LIFT OVER THE NORTHEAST BRINGING
CATEGORICAL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THE
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE SHIFTING MORE TOWARDS
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THAT WILL CONTINUE THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE LOW LEVELS WHICH WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A PERSISTENT RAIN EVENT ON WEDNESDAY. THE LONG TERM
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED THE TREND OF WEAKENING THE 850MB JET OVER
THE REGION AND DEVELOP THE SYSTEM AS MORE OF A STRONG OPEN WAVE
INSTEAD OF A CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL STILL PROVIDE FOR CHANCES OF
30-40 MPH GUSTS BUT WITHOUT THE EASTERN COMPONENT THE CHANCES OF
STRONG DOWNSLOPE WIND GUSTS ARE WEAKENING. THE BIGGEST AREA OF
CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND PERHAPS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE
ADIRONDACKS.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM...WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL
AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
AMOUNTS WILL VARY A BIT DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS. HIGHEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG SOUTH FACING
SLOPES OF SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS  OVER
NORTHWEST VERMONT AND FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE COASTAL AREAS OF
NEW ENGLAND WOULD SEE MORE RAINFALL FOR THIS EVENT. FLOODING STILL
CONTINUES TO REMAIN A POTENTIAL ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S...AND LITTLE DROP OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF
RAIN AND MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THE
SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN SMALL STREAMS.
RIGHT NOW RIVER GAUGES ARE SHOWING RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE LOW...SO
WHILE SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DON`T EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING ISSUES.

RAIN CONTINUES EARLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY...THEN SOME DRYING EXPECTED WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS COLDER AIR RETURNS. TEMPS IN
VALLEYS REMAIN MILD THOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH READINGS IN
THE 40S.

DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS
A WEAK CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...GENERAL IDEA OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO LOW CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL MIST. VERY LIGHT WINDS (UNDER 10
KNOTS) AND SATURATED RH CONDITIONS THROUGH A DEEP DEPTH OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL FAVOR PERIODS OF MIST AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. WHILE CEILINGS WILL PREDOMINANTLY BE MVFR THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD...IFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO EXIST BUT BE MOST FAVORED
AT MSS OVERNIGHT. ANY MIST WILL BURN OFF INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
WEAK INVERSION DISSIPATES BUT STILL EXPECT THERE TO BE PLENTY OF
MVFR CEILINGS AROUND. PRECIPITATION THEN APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH VCSH INDICATED AT RUT. ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT SHOULD INITIALLY FALL WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT SNOW, BUT BE MORE LIKELY AFTER 00Z ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-18Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...LOCONTO/DEAL



000
FXUS61 KALY 212343
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
643 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND QUEBEC WILL KEEP A MOIST LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION...WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS INTO MID WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND A BETTER CHANCE
FOR LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY
A STORM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTENSIFY RAPIDLY
AS IT MOVES NORTH TO THE OTTAWA VALLEY. IT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MASSIVE INVERSION FM 925HPA TO 850HPA COMBINED WITH LLVL EASTERLY
FLOW AND WEAK UVM WITH 500HPA TROF OVER RGN WILL INSURE ITS MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH LOWERING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.  SOME SPOTTY PCPN PARTICULAR
ON THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE LITCHFIELD HILLS/BERKS AND
TACONICS OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED ALSO. THE REMAINDER OF THE FA WILL
BE DRY WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT AND LOWS IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS MOISTURE
STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA AND
EVENTUALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA BY MORNING. PARTIAL THICKNESS
VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET MIXING IN. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH
OF A DROP FROM DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...FREEZING RAIN WILL LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH ALL RAIN FROM MID
MORNING TUESDAY ON ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

TUESDAY NIGHT A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. AS THE LOW
APPROACHES IT WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
SUCH THAT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS WET AND MILD TO START FOR CHRISTMAS
EVE...AND THEN BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR CHRISTMAS
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH PERHAPS SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CLOSE THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS HAVE MENTIONED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...A
POTENTIAL MULTI-HAZARD EVENT IS POSSIBLE WED INTO THU WITH A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WELL WEST OF THE REGION FROM THE TN
VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE CANADA.  THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING MILDER WX ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS...AND A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE.  ALSO STRONG S TO SW WINDS
AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING SFC CYCLONE ARE EXPECTED WED
INTO WED PM...AND A BAND OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.  THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS COUPLED WITH 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 24 HRS OR LESS...AND SNOW MELT COULD PRODUCE
SOME MINOR HYDRO ISSUES.  ALSO THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...AND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 970 HPA OR LOWER OVER WRN QUEBEC COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG W/NW WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS.

WED-WED NIGHT...INITIAL BURST OF RAINFALL DURING THE DAY ON WED WILL
BE WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285/290K SFC.  THE WARM FRONT
SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AN ANOMALOUS
SOUTHERLY LLJ JET OF 40-60 KTS AT H850 WILL ADVECT IN ANOMALOUS PWAT
VALUES OF 3 TO 5 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
GEFS.  THE +V-WIND ANOMALIES /SOUTHERLIES/ ARE 2 TO 3 STD DEVS ABOVE
NORMAL.  THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  H850 TEMPS RISE TO +10C TO
+12C IN THE WARM SECTOR.  THE NARROW COLD FRONT RAINBAND LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM BTWN
06Z-12Z/THU...AS THE CYCLONE DEEPENS AND INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES
N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY.  HIGH TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS EVE WILL BE IN THE
MID TO U50S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST /NEARLY 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/...AND M40S TO L50S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  AS
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN WED NIGHT...EXPECT SOME OF THE RAIN TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE SRN DACKS.  PERHAPS AN
INCH OR SO OF WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE.  LOWS CHRISTMAS MORNING WILL BE
IN THE MID TO U30S WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER TO
MID 40S FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EAST.

CHRISTMAS-CHRISTMAS NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER
WRN QUEBEC NEAR JAMES BAY.  SIGNIFICANT MSLP PRESSURE RISES WILL BE
OCCURRING OVER THE FCST AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.  BLUSTERY W/NW WINDS OF 15 TO 30
MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE DEEPER
MIXING AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT.  A WIND HEADLINE
MAY BE NEEDED HERE FOR PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.  SOME WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE WRN DACKS...AND WRN
GREENS.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M30S TO U40S FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA.  THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF CHRISTMAS NIGHT WITH
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS WEST OF THE TRI CITIES.  LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID 20S TO L30S.

FRI-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RIDGES IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE
MID LEVEL FLOW W/SW ALOFT.  A CLIPPER TYPE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SRN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY.  THIS SYSTEM LIFTS
N/NE INTO QUEBEC WITH SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.  SOME ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY GET INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  HIGH WILL BE IN
THE M30S TO M40S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO L30S.  HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COLDER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE L30S TO U30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO L40S
IN THE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...NORTHEAST AND EAST COAST.  THE GFS HAS WEAK
IMPULSES IN THE W/NW CYCLONIC FLOW FOCUSING LAKE EFFECT AND W/NW
UPSLOPE SNOWFALL.  THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
HANGING CLOSE TO THE COAST.  A COASTAL WAVE MOVES ALONG IT SUNDAY
FOR SOME SNOWFALL FOR MOST OF THE REGION.  A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS...SO A LOW CHC OF SNOWFALL WAS USED FOR THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA ON SUNDAY.  TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE FOR LATE DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRATUS DECK REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER MASSIVE INVERSIONS OVER FCA
WITH LITTLE CHANGE LIKELY THROHGH THE TAF PERIOD.  MAINLY MVFR
CIGS AND VSBY WITH WIDESPREAD HIR TRRN OBSCD. GRADUALLY LOWERING
CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR CONDS DVLPG. WK UVM ASSOC WITH
WK 500 HPA CUT OFF OVER RGN...AND LOW LVL ATLC MOISTURE INFLOW
WILL RESULT IN SCT -SHSN/ISOLD ZL OVER W NEW ENG AND SOUTHERN MOST
AREAS OF NYS. CONDS IN THESE AREAS COULD BCM WIDESPREAD IFR
OVERNIGHT.

ON MONDAY...LINGERING PATCHY -SN AND OR ZL WILL DIMINISH EARLY.
OTRW IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...FROM THE N TO NE AT LESS THAN 8 KT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT
SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11/SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...11/NAS







000
FXUS61 KBGM 212335
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
635 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY AS
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE. A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN MIDWEST IN
COMBINATION WITH A LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY RAIN INTO
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO ONE CAN SAY THE BGM/S REPUTATION FOR CLDS IS UNDESERVED AFT
THIS STRETCH OF OVC WX. AREA OF CLRG OVER THE NRN FINGER LAKES AND
ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN QUICKLY FILLED IN AS HTG BUBBLED UP ADTNL
MOISTURE INTO A NEW SC DECK. WHILE SOME OF THE MODELS INSIST THAT
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO CLR THE AREA THIS EVE INTO MON...
STUBBORNLY STRNG INV REMAINS IN PLACE...AND WITH LGT WINDS AND NO
MIXING...SEE LTL TO BRK UP THE CLDS IN PLACE. ALSO...SAT IMAGES
SHOW A SOLID DECK ALL THE WAY BACK INTO EERN OH THIS AFT. WHEN
WINDS FNLY DO DVLP MON MRNG...THEY/RE FROM THE SE PTNLY ADDING
MOISTURE TO THE SNDG. SO...HAVE GONE AGAINST MODEL GUID AND GONE
WITH EXPERIENCE AND CONSISTENCY AND CONTD THE CLDS THRU THE NEAR
TERM.

TEMPS ENDED UP STAYING BLO GUID FCST TODAY AS THE STUBBORN CLDS
DID NOT ALLOW ANY HTG AS ANTICIPATED BY MOS. XPCT LTL DIURNAL CHG
OVRNGT WITH THE CLDS. FOR MON...SOME WEAK WAA DOES OCCUR WITH THE
SELY FLOW SO HAVE GONE NEARER GUID FCST. SOME LGT PCPN MAY DVLP
OVER THE SERN ZONES ON MON AS A WEAK WV PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH.
TEMPS MRGNL SO HAVE GONE WITH MIXED PCPN WHICH BLENDED WELL WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/...
300 PM EST UPDATE... A LARGE STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT NY
AND PA STARTING LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUES MORNING AND MAY LINGER
THROUGH LATE THURS NIGHT...

MANY UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST WITH THIS STORM. BUT...
SYNOPTICALLY... GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE
UPPR LOW. GUIDANCE ALSO SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD IDEA OF THE OVERALL
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC LOW AND IT MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

LATE MONDAY NIGHT THE POTENT UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD
ALONG AND SLIGHTLY E OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND GENERATE
CYCLOGENESIS OVR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF KS AND NE. THIS SFC LOW
WILL THEN TRACK NE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. BY TUES
MORNING A STRONG VORT MAXIMA WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPR
TROUGH OVR FAR S TX GENERATING A SECONDARY SFC LOW/SFC TROUGH OVR
E LA. AS THIS OCCURS... THE MAIN SFC LOW OVER THE NORTH WILL BECOME
OCCLUDED.

THE UPPR TROUGH WILL START TO SHIFT EAST TUES NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST THE SECONDARY SFC LOW/TROUGH WILL MERGE WITH THE
PRIMARY SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARDS OUR CWA AND
BRING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING LATE MONDAY NIGHT
LASTING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AS THIS SYSTEM STARTS TO GENERATE PRECIP... EXPECT THE PRECIP TO
START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX AND MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. THIS IS DUE TO WAA AND ISENTROPHIC LIFT AHEAD THE
OCCLUDED FRONT. PRECIP WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE N AND WEST. A STRONG
LLJ WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CWA LATE TUES MORNING/AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN STRONG WAA AND GUSTY WINDS OVR THE REGION. BY TUES
AFTERNOON THE WAA WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AND ALL PRECIP WILL
FALL AS RAIN. RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH
WED NIGHT. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS PWAT
VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE COLDER ATTENDANT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL START TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION THURS MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY GUSTY BEHIND
THE FROPA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE VERY COLD AIR WITH IT DUE IT
WHERE IT ORIGINATED. IT IS A PACIFIC AIRMASS NOT AN ARCTIC.
THUS... TEMPS WILL NOT DROP DRAMATICALLY POST FRONTAL.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED ATTM TO BE HEAVY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FNT SWINGS THRU FRI NGT AND RETURNS THE AREA TO MORE TYPICAL
EARLY WINTER WX. CONTD CAA WILL GRADUALLY LWR TEMPS THRU THE PD
INCRSG THE CHANCE OF LE SNOW SHWRS. SHEARED FLOW ININTIALLY BHD
THE FNT WILL LIMIT THE AMT OF LE...WHILE THE DEEPER COLD AIR AITS
TO JUST BEYOND THE PD LATE SUN AND EARLY MON.

TEMPS WILL AVG NEAR NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN ACROSS ALL TAF SITES IN
CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. CIGS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 1500 AND
2500 FEET THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CIGS POP UP
TO MVFR AT KELM MON PM. OTHERWISE SOLID MVFR CIG THRU 00Z TUE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTH THIS EVENING AND SHIFT TO SE AT 5 KNOTS
OR SO BY MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...MAINLY MVFR CIG.

TUE TO THURS...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-
THURS.

FRI...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DJN





000
FXUS61 KBGM 212335
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
635 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY AS
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE. A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN MIDWEST IN
COMBINATION WITH A LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY RAIN INTO
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO ONE CAN SAY THE BGM/S REPUTATION FOR CLDS IS UNDESERVED AFT
THIS STRETCH OF OVC WX. AREA OF CLRG OVER THE NRN FINGER LAKES AND
ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN QUICKLY FILLED IN AS HTG BUBBLED UP ADTNL
MOISTURE INTO A NEW SC DECK. WHILE SOME OF THE MODELS INSIST THAT
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO CLR THE AREA THIS EVE INTO MON...
STUBBORNLY STRNG INV REMAINS IN PLACE...AND WITH LGT WINDS AND NO
MIXING...SEE LTL TO BRK UP THE CLDS IN PLACE. ALSO...SAT IMAGES
SHOW A SOLID DECK ALL THE WAY BACK INTO EERN OH THIS AFT. WHEN
WINDS FNLY DO DVLP MON MRNG...THEY/RE FROM THE SE PTNLY ADDING
MOISTURE TO THE SNDG. SO...HAVE GONE AGAINST MODEL GUID AND GONE
WITH EXPERIENCE AND CONSISTENCY AND CONTD THE CLDS THRU THE NEAR
TERM.

TEMPS ENDED UP STAYING BLO GUID FCST TODAY AS THE STUBBORN CLDS
DID NOT ALLOW ANY HTG AS ANTICIPATED BY MOS. XPCT LTL DIURNAL CHG
OVRNGT WITH THE CLDS. FOR MON...SOME WEAK WAA DOES OCCUR WITH THE
SELY FLOW SO HAVE GONE NEARER GUID FCST. SOME LGT PCPN MAY DVLP
OVER THE SERN ZONES ON MON AS A WEAK WV PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH.
TEMPS MRGNL SO HAVE GONE WITH MIXED PCPN WHICH BLENDED WELL WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/...
300 PM EST UPDATE... A LARGE STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT NY
AND PA STARTING LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUES MORNING AND MAY LINGER
THROUGH LATE THURS NIGHT...

MANY UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST WITH THIS STORM. BUT...
SYNOPTICALLY... GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE
UPPR LOW. GUIDANCE ALSO SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD IDEA OF THE OVERALL
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC LOW AND IT MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

LATE MONDAY NIGHT THE POTENT UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD
ALONG AND SLIGHTLY E OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND GENERATE
CYCLOGENESIS OVR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF KS AND NE. THIS SFC LOW
WILL THEN TRACK NE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. BY TUES
MORNING A STRONG VORT MAXIMA WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPR
TROUGH OVR FAR S TX GENERATING A SECONDARY SFC LOW/SFC TROUGH OVR
E LA. AS THIS OCCURS... THE MAIN SFC LOW OVER THE NORTH WILL BECOME
OCCLUDED.

THE UPPR TROUGH WILL START TO SHIFT EAST TUES NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST THE SECONDARY SFC LOW/TROUGH WILL MERGE WITH THE
PRIMARY SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARDS OUR CWA AND
BRING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING LATE MONDAY NIGHT
LASTING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AS THIS SYSTEM STARTS TO GENERATE PRECIP... EXPECT THE PRECIP TO
START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX AND MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. THIS IS DUE TO WAA AND ISENTROPHIC LIFT AHEAD THE
OCCLUDED FRONT. PRECIP WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE N AND WEST. A STRONG
LLJ WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CWA LATE TUES MORNING/AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN STRONG WAA AND GUSTY WINDS OVR THE REGION. BY TUES
AFTERNOON THE WAA WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AND ALL PRECIP WILL
FALL AS RAIN. RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH
WED NIGHT. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS PWAT
VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE COLDER ATTENDANT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL START TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION THURS MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY GUSTY BEHIND
THE FROPA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE VERY COLD AIR WITH IT DUE IT
WHERE IT ORIGINATED. IT IS A PACIFIC AIRMASS NOT AN ARCTIC.
THUS... TEMPS WILL NOT DROP DRAMATICALLY POST FRONTAL.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED ATTM TO BE HEAVY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FNT SWINGS THRU FRI NGT AND RETURNS THE AREA TO MORE TYPICAL
EARLY WINTER WX. CONTD CAA WILL GRADUALLY LWR TEMPS THRU THE PD
INCRSG THE CHANCE OF LE SNOW SHWRS. SHEARED FLOW ININTIALLY BHD
THE FNT WILL LIMIT THE AMT OF LE...WHILE THE DEEPER COLD AIR AITS
TO JUST BEYOND THE PD LATE SUN AND EARLY MON.

TEMPS WILL AVG NEAR NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN ACROSS ALL TAF SITES IN
CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. CIGS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 1500 AND
2500 FEET THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CIGS POP UP
TO MVFR AT KELM MON PM. OTHERWISE SOLID MVFR CIG THRU 00Z TUE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTH THIS EVENING AND SHIFT TO SE AT 5 KNOTS
OR SO BY MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...MAINLY MVFR CIG.

TUE TO THURS...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-
THURS.

FRI...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DJN





000
FXUS61 KBGM 212335
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
635 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY AS
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE. A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN MIDWEST IN
COMBINATION WITH A LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY RAIN INTO
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO ONE CAN SAY THE BGM/S REPUTATION FOR CLDS IS UNDESERVED AFT
THIS STRETCH OF OVC WX. AREA OF CLRG OVER THE NRN FINGER LAKES AND
ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN QUICKLY FILLED IN AS HTG BUBBLED UP ADTNL
MOISTURE INTO A NEW SC DECK. WHILE SOME OF THE MODELS INSIST THAT
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO CLR THE AREA THIS EVE INTO MON...
STUBBORNLY STRNG INV REMAINS IN PLACE...AND WITH LGT WINDS AND NO
MIXING...SEE LTL TO BRK UP THE CLDS IN PLACE. ALSO...SAT IMAGES
SHOW A SOLID DECK ALL THE WAY BACK INTO EERN OH THIS AFT. WHEN
WINDS FNLY DO DVLP MON MRNG...THEY/RE FROM THE SE PTNLY ADDING
MOISTURE TO THE SNDG. SO...HAVE GONE AGAINST MODEL GUID AND GONE
WITH EXPERIENCE AND CONSISTENCY AND CONTD THE CLDS THRU THE NEAR
TERM.

TEMPS ENDED UP STAYING BLO GUID FCST TODAY AS THE STUBBORN CLDS
DID NOT ALLOW ANY HTG AS ANTICIPATED BY MOS. XPCT LTL DIURNAL CHG
OVRNGT WITH THE CLDS. FOR MON...SOME WEAK WAA DOES OCCUR WITH THE
SELY FLOW SO HAVE GONE NEARER GUID FCST. SOME LGT PCPN MAY DVLP
OVER THE SERN ZONES ON MON AS A WEAK WV PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH.
TEMPS MRGNL SO HAVE GONE WITH MIXED PCPN WHICH BLENDED WELL WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/...
300 PM EST UPDATE... A LARGE STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT NY
AND PA STARTING LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUES MORNING AND MAY LINGER
THROUGH LATE THURS NIGHT...

MANY UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST WITH THIS STORM. BUT...
SYNOPTICALLY... GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE
UPPR LOW. GUIDANCE ALSO SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD IDEA OF THE OVERALL
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC LOW AND IT MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

LATE MONDAY NIGHT THE POTENT UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD
ALONG AND SLIGHTLY E OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND GENERATE
CYCLOGENESIS OVR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF KS AND NE. THIS SFC LOW
WILL THEN TRACK NE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. BY TUES
MORNING A STRONG VORT MAXIMA WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPR
TROUGH OVR FAR S TX GENERATING A SECONDARY SFC LOW/SFC TROUGH OVR
E LA. AS THIS OCCURS... THE MAIN SFC LOW OVER THE NORTH WILL BECOME
OCCLUDED.

THE UPPR TROUGH WILL START TO SHIFT EAST TUES NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST THE SECONDARY SFC LOW/TROUGH WILL MERGE WITH THE
PRIMARY SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARDS OUR CWA AND
BRING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING LATE MONDAY NIGHT
LASTING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AS THIS SYSTEM STARTS TO GENERATE PRECIP... EXPECT THE PRECIP TO
START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX AND MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. THIS IS DUE TO WAA AND ISENTROPHIC LIFT AHEAD THE
OCCLUDED FRONT. PRECIP WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE N AND WEST. A STRONG
LLJ WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CWA LATE TUES MORNING/AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN STRONG WAA AND GUSTY WINDS OVR THE REGION. BY TUES
AFTERNOON THE WAA WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AND ALL PRECIP WILL
FALL AS RAIN. RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH
WED NIGHT. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS PWAT
VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE COLDER ATTENDANT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL START TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION THURS MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY GUSTY BEHIND
THE FROPA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE VERY COLD AIR WITH IT DUE IT
WHERE IT ORIGINATED. IT IS A PACIFIC AIRMASS NOT AN ARCTIC.
THUS... TEMPS WILL NOT DROP DRAMATICALLY POST FRONTAL.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED ATTM TO BE HEAVY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FNT SWINGS THRU FRI NGT AND RETURNS THE AREA TO MORE TYPICAL
EARLY WINTER WX. CONTD CAA WILL GRADUALLY LWR TEMPS THRU THE PD
INCRSG THE CHANCE OF LE SNOW SHWRS. SHEARED FLOW ININTIALLY BHD
THE FNT WILL LIMIT THE AMT OF LE...WHILE THE DEEPER COLD AIR AITS
TO JUST BEYOND THE PD LATE SUN AND EARLY MON.

TEMPS WILL AVG NEAR NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN ACROSS ALL TAF SITES IN
CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. CIGS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 1500 AND
2500 FEET THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CIGS POP UP
TO MVFR AT KELM MON PM. OTHERWISE SOLID MVFR CIG THRU 00Z TUE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTH THIS EVENING AND SHIFT TO SE AT 5 KNOTS
OR SO BY MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...MAINLY MVFR CIG.

TUE TO THURS...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-
THURS.

FRI...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DJN





000
FXUS61 KBGM 212335
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
635 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY AS
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE. A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN MIDWEST IN
COMBINATION WITH A LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY RAIN INTO
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO ONE CAN SAY THE BGM/S REPUTATION FOR CLDS IS UNDESERVED AFT
THIS STRETCH OF OVC WX. AREA OF CLRG OVER THE NRN FINGER LAKES AND
ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN QUICKLY FILLED IN AS HTG BUBBLED UP ADTNL
MOISTURE INTO A NEW SC DECK. WHILE SOME OF THE MODELS INSIST THAT
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO CLR THE AREA THIS EVE INTO MON...
STUBBORNLY STRNG INV REMAINS IN PLACE...AND WITH LGT WINDS AND NO
MIXING...SEE LTL TO BRK UP THE CLDS IN PLACE. ALSO...SAT IMAGES
SHOW A SOLID DECK ALL THE WAY BACK INTO EERN OH THIS AFT. WHEN
WINDS FNLY DO DVLP MON MRNG...THEY/RE FROM THE SE PTNLY ADDING
MOISTURE TO THE SNDG. SO...HAVE GONE AGAINST MODEL GUID AND GONE
WITH EXPERIENCE AND CONSISTENCY AND CONTD THE CLDS THRU THE NEAR
TERM.

TEMPS ENDED UP STAYING BLO GUID FCST TODAY AS THE STUBBORN CLDS
DID NOT ALLOW ANY HTG AS ANTICIPATED BY MOS. XPCT LTL DIURNAL CHG
OVRNGT WITH THE CLDS. FOR MON...SOME WEAK WAA DOES OCCUR WITH THE
SELY FLOW SO HAVE GONE NEARER GUID FCST. SOME LGT PCPN MAY DVLP
OVER THE SERN ZONES ON MON AS A WEAK WV PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH.
TEMPS MRGNL SO HAVE GONE WITH MIXED PCPN WHICH BLENDED WELL WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/...
300 PM EST UPDATE... A LARGE STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT NY
AND PA STARTING LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUES MORNING AND MAY LINGER
THROUGH LATE THURS NIGHT...

MANY UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST WITH THIS STORM. BUT...
SYNOPTICALLY... GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE
UPPR LOW. GUIDANCE ALSO SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD IDEA OF THE OVERALL
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC LOW AND IT MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

LATE MONDAY NIGHT THE POTENT UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD
ALONG AND SLIGHTLY E OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND GENERATE
CYCLOGENESIS OVR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF KS AND NE. THIS SFC LOW
WILL THEN TRACK NE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. BY TUES
MORNING A STRONG VORT MAXIMA WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPR
TROUGH OVR FAR S TX GENERATING A SECONDARY SFC LOW/SFC TROUGH OVR
E LA. AS THIS OCCURS... THE MAIN SFC LOW OVER THE NORTH WILL BECOME
OCCLUDED.

THE UPPR TROUGH WILL START TO SHIFT EAST TUES NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST THE SECONDARY SFC LOW/TROUGH WILL MERGE WITH THE
PRIMARY SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARDS OUR CWA AND
BRING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING LATE MONDAY NIGHT
LASTING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AS THIS SYSTEM STARTS TO GENERATE PRECIP... EXPECT THE PRECIP TO
START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX AND MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. THIS IS DUE TO WAA AND ISENTROPHIC LIFT AHEAD THE
OCCLUDED FRONT. PRECIP WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE N AND WEST. A STRONG
LLJ WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CWA LATE TUES MORNING/AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN STRONG WAA AND GUSTY WINDS OVR THE REGION. BY TUES
AFTERNOON THE WAA WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AND ALL PRECIP WILL
FALL AS RAIN. RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH
WED NIGHT. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS PWAT
VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE COLDER ATTENDANT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL START TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION THURS MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY GUSTY BEHIND
THE FROPA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE VERY COLD AIR WITH IT DUE IT
WHERE IT ORIGINATED. IT IS A PACIFIC AIRMASS NOT AN ARCTIC.
THUS... TEMPS WILL NOT DROP DRAMATICALLY POST FRONTAL.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED ATTM TO BE HEAVY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FNT SWINGS THRU FRI NGT AND RETURNS THE AREA TO MORE TYPICAL
EARLY WINTER WX. CONTD CAA WILL GRADUALLY LWR TEMPS THRU THE PD
INCRSG THE CHANCE OF LE SNOW SHWRS. SHEARED FLOW ININTIALLY BHD
THE FNT WILL LIMIT THE AMT OF LE...WHILE THE DEEPER COLD AIR AITS
TO JUST BEYOND THE PD LATE SUN AND EARLY MON.

TEMPS WILL AVG NEAR NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN ACROSS ALL TAF SITES IN
CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. CIGS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 1500 AND
2500 FEET THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CIGS POP UP
TO MVFR AT KELM MON PM. OTHERWISE SOLID MVFR CIG THRU 00Z TUE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTH THIS EVENING AND SHIFT TO SE AT 5 KNOTS
OR SO BY MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...MAINLY MVFR CIG.

TUE TO THURS...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-
THURS.

FRI...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DJN





000
FXUS61 KBTV 212324
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
624 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END WITH CLOUDS LINGERING
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY...BUT A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION
CHANGES TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ON
CHRISTMAS EVE ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 339 PM EST SUNDAY...LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EST SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM WILL TAKE PLACE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING
ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
TAKING PLACE. THIS WILL SET UP A THERMAL PROFILE CONDUCIVE TO
MIXED PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT
NEVERTHELESS SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION
BECOMES ALL RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STEADIER RAIN AND WIND STILL
NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 357 PM EST SUNDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA
OF RAINY AND POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY INTO
THE MORNING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS DAY.

WEDNESDAY MORNING THE PRECIPITATION CHANCE INCREASES QUICKLY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE MIDWEST. A PULSE OF ENERGY
WILL SLIDE UP THE TROUGH AND THEN LIFT OVER THE NORTHEAST BRINGING
CATEGORICAL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THE
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE SHIFTING MORE TOWARDS
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THAT WILL CONTINUE THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE LOW LEVELS WHICH WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A PERSISTENT RAIN EVENT ON WEDNESDAY. THE LONG TERM
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED THE TREND OF WEAKENING THE 850MB JET OVER
THE REGION AND DEVELOP THE SYSTEM AS MORE OF A STRONG OPEN WAVE
INSTEAD OF A CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL STILL PROVIDE FOR CHANCES OF
30-40 MPH GUSTS BUT WITHOUT THE EASTERN COMPONENT THE CHANCES OF
STRONG DOWNSLOPE WIND GUSTS ARE WEAKENING. THE BIGGEST AREA OF
CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND PERHAPS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE
ADIRONDACKS.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM...WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL
AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
AMOUNTS WILL VARY A BIT DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS. HIGHEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG SOUTH FACING
SLOPES OF SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS  OVER
NORTHWEST VERMONT AND FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE COASTAL AREAS OF
NEW ENGLAND WOULD SEE MORE RAINFALL FOR THIS EVENT. FLOODING STILL
CONTINUES TO REMAIN A POTENTIAL ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S...AND LITTLE DROP OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF
RAIN AND MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THE
SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN SMALL STREAMS.
RIGHT NOW RIVER GAUGES ARE SHOWING RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE LOW...SO
WHILE SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DON`T EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING ISSUES.

RAIN CONTINUES EARLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY...THEN SOME DRYING EXPECTED WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS COLDER AIR RETURNS. TEMPS IN
VALLEYS REMAIN MILD THOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH READINGS IN
THE 40S.

DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS
A WEAK CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...GENERAL IDEA OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO LOW CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL MIST. VERY LIGHT WINDS (UNDER 10
KNOTS) AND SATURATED RH CONDITIONS THROUGH A DEEP DEPTH OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL FAVOR PERIODS OF MIST AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. WHILE CEILINGS WILL PREDOMINANTLY BE MVFR THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD...IFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO EXIST BUT BE MOST FAVORED
AT MSS OVERNIGHT. ANY MIST WILL BURN OFF INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
WEAK INVERSION DISSIPATES BUT STILL EXPECT THERE TO BE PLENTY OF
MVFR CEILINGS AROUND. PRECIPITATION THEN APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH VCSH INDICATED AT RUT. ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT SHOULD INITIALLY FALL WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT SNOW, BUT BE MORE LIKELY AFTER 00Z ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-18Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KBTV 212324
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
624 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END WITH CLOUDS LINGERING
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY...BUT A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION
CHANGES TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ON
CHRISTMAS EVE ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 339 PM EST SUNDAY...LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EST SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM WILL TAKE PLACE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING
ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
TAKING PLACE. THIS WILL SET UP A THERMAL PROFILE CONDUCIVE TO
MIXED PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT
NEVERTHELESS SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION
BECOMES ALL RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STEADIER RAIN AND WIND STILL
NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 357 PM EST SUNDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA
OF RAINY AND POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY INTO
THE MORNING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS DAY.

WEDNESDAY MORNING THE PRECIPITATION CHANCE INCREASES QUICKLY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE MIDWEST. A PULSE OF ENERGY
WILL SLIDE UP THE TROUGH AND THEN LIFT OVER THE NORTHEAST BRINGING
CATEGORICAL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THE
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE SHIFTING MORE TOWARDS
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THAT WILL CONTINUE THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE LOW LEVELS WHICH WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A PERSISTENT RAIN EVENT ON WEDNESDAY. THE LONG TERM
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED THE TREND OF WEAKENING THE 850MB JET OVER
THE REGION AND DEVELOP THE SYSTEM AS MORE OF A STRONG OPEN WAVE
INSTEAD OF A CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL STILL PROVIDE FOR CHANCES OF
30-40 MPH GUSTS BUT WITHOUT THE EASTERN COMPONENT THE CHANCES OF
STRONG DOWNSLOPE WIND GUSTS ARE WEAKENING. THE BIGGEST AREA OF
CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND PERHAPS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE
ADIRONDACKS.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM...WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL
AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
AMOUNTS WILL VARY A BIT DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS. HIGHEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG SOUTH FACING
SLOPES OF SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS  OVER
NORTHWEST VERMONT AND FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE COASTAL AREAS OF
NEW ENGLAND WOULD SEE MORE RAINFALL FOR THIS EVENT. FLOODING STILL
CONTINUES TO REMAIN A POTENTIAL ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S...AND LITTLE DROP OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF
RAIN AND MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THE
SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN SMALL STREAMS.
RIGHT NOW RIVER GAUGES ARE SHOWING RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE LOW...SO
WHILE SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DON`T EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING ISSUES.

RAIN CONTINUES EARLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY...THEN SOME DRYING EXPECTED WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS COLDER AIR RETURNS. TEMPS IN
VALLEYS REMAIN MILD THOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH READINGS IN
THE 40S.

DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS
A WEAK CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...GENERAL IDEA OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO LOW CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL MIST. VERY LIGHT WINDS (UNDER 10
KNOTS) AND SATURATED RH CONDITIONS THROUGH A DEEP DEPTH OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL FAVOR PERIODS OF MIST AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. WHILE CEILINGS WILL PREDOMINANTLY BE MVFR THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD...IFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO EXIST BUT BE MOST FAVORED
AT MSS OVERNIGHT. ANY MIST WILL BURN OFF INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
WEAK INVERSION DISSIPATES BUT STILL EXPECT THERE TO BE PLENTY OF
MVFR CEILINGS AROUND. PRECIPITATION THEN APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH VCSH INDICATED AT RUT. ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT SHOULD INITIALLY FALL WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT SNOW, BUT BE MORE LIKELY AFTER 00Z ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-18Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBUF 212321
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
621 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY AND PROVIDE ONE
MORE DAY OF DRY WEATHER. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ALONG WITH THE WARMTH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND PRODUCE RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR WET SNOW
SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM CONTINUES TO
REVOLVE AROUND THE EVER PRESENT LOW STRATUS AND ITS EVOLUTION.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING THICK STRATUS
DOMINATING MOST OF THE REGION...WITH SOMEWHAT THINNER STRATOCUMULUS
FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO ROCHESTER. NAM POINT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SHOW ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STEEP
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 3K FEET...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD STRATUS THROUGH TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL
BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT...SO EVEN IN AREAS NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO WHERE A FEW BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THE STRATUS
WILL LIKELY MOVE BACK IN OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE LITTLE DIURNAL
RANGE WITH MOST AREAS STAYING CLOUDY. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 20S IN
MOST AREAS AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

ON MONDAY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE. THE
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TO FINALLY ERODE THE
LOW STRATUS FROM THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE LAKE PLAINS WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. THE STRATUS MAY BE MORE DIFFICULT TO
DISLODGE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER...
FINGER LAKES...AND TUG HILL REGION WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN THE MID LEVELS
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WILL JUST BRING A MODEST INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL CLOUD WITH ANY LIGHT PRECIP REMAINING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BOOST
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES OVER RECENT DAYS...WITH UPPER 30S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND MID 30S ON THE HILLS AND NORTH COUNTRY.
SOME OF THE TYPICALLY WARMER LOCATIONS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY MAY
PUSH 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FOCUS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL BE ON A STORM EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES LATER TUESDAY THEN MERGE WITH
A NORTHERN STREAM LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON CHRISTMAS EVE.
THIS WILL BRING VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE TO AT TIMES
HEAVY RAINFALL ON CHRISTMAS EVE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
POSSIBLY STRONG WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

LEADING UP TO CHRISTMAS EVE THE WEATHER WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO ABOVE AVERAGE AND A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LIE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT INCREASING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WILL BRING OVERCAST SKIES WHILE
WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF A SHOWER ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK.
MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT BECOME FULLY SATURATED UNTIL LATE TUESDAY
WITH MUCH OF THE LIGHT SHOWERS BEFOREHAND DRYING UP BEFORE REACHING
THE GROUND. IT IS WORTH A MENTION THAT ANY PRECIP THAT COULD REACH
THE SURFACE EARLY TUESDAY WHEN TEMPS ARE STILL HOVERING NEAR
FREEZING MAY FALL AS A LIGHT WINTERY MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ESPECIALLY BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS WELL
ABOVE FREEZING SO PLAIN RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE HERE.

THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND +10C. MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THEN TEMPS PUSH WELL INTO THE 40S WITH AROUND 50 ALONG
THE LAKESHORES ON TUESDAY WITH A DOWNSLOPE SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE
ERIE SHORELINE.

ON CHRISTMAS EVE A PLUME OF MOISTURE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WILL SHIFT
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SURFACE LOW AS IT MERGES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. NAEFS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE OVER ONE INCH WHICH IS
NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN A 30 YEAR PWAT CLIMO. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S CHRISTMAS EVE SHOULD YIELD
SOME MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS MAY
ALSO HELP TO DRAG DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A 50 KNOT
850MB JET STREAKING OVERHEAD. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS AND
INCREASING WINDS...DOWNSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST SURFACE
TEMPS INTO THE 50S WITH A RUN AT 60 DEGREES FOR BUFFALO AND
ROCHESTER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THESE NUMBERS ARE 20+ DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL LATE DECEMBER HIGHS.

A SHARP COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW IS FAVORABLE
FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH THE FALLING
PRESSURES WITHIN THE LOW ALSO REQUIRED FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT. WINDS
OF 50-60 KNOTS WILL BE FOUND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WITH COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT HELPING TO MIX THESE STRONG WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. CIPS ANALOGS FOR THIS EVENT AND THE SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
LEAN TOWARD MAINLY A WESTERN NEW YORK EVENT POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS WELL INLAND
FROM THE LAKES. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 60 MPH EAST OF LAKE ERIE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY EVENTUALLY BRING THE NEED FOR A HIGH WIND
WATCH IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES SHIFTING ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW
YORK WHICH WILL ENSURE A GUSTY CHRISTMAS DAY. WINDS GUSTS INTO THE
40S SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST WIND ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY.

COLD AIR WILL ALSO WORK ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO MENTION THAT WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES THE SOURCE REGION OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC
BASED AND NOT ARCTIC BASED SO THIS LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL
BRING A REDUCED THREAT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY. 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK TO ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN -5C AND
-8C. THIS SHOULD ONLY ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL INTO THE
MID 30S WITH LOW 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LATEST FORECAST
CONTINUES TO REFLECT A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SOME LIMITED WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME WEAK
LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LINGERING POST FRONTAL
MOISTURE AND LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 5KFT
DURING THE DAY.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER BACK INTO THE MID 40S
AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAKER GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH LOOKS TO
BRING A SHOT OF WESTERN CANADIAN SOURCED AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR SATURDAY
THEN PLAIN SNOW SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPS BACK TO AROUND
FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WEAK SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW STRATUS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS IN MOST
AREAS. LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL INCREASE. THE DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP TO ERODE
THE STRATUS DECK ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING
OUT AND CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. STRATUS MAY LOCK IN LONGER ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND TUG
HILL REGION WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE DRIFTING
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY TUESDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE SOME ON MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THEN CROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
THURSDAY. THIS IS A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TRACK FOR STRONG WINDS
ON THE LOWER LAKES...WITH A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON
BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBUF 212321
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
621 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY AND PROVIDE ONE
MORE DAY OF DRY WEATHER. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ALONG WITH THE WARMTH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND PRODUCE RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR WET SNOW
SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM CONTINUES TO
REVOLVE AROUND THE EVER PRESENT LOW STRATUS AND ITS EVOLUTION.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING THICK STRATUS
DOMINATING MOST OF THE REGION...WITH SOMEWHAT THINNER STRATOCUMULUS
FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO ROCHESTER. NAM POINT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SHOW ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STEEP
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 3K FEET...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD STRATUS THROUGH TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL
BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT...SO EVEN IN AREAS NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO WHERE A FEW BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THE STRATUS
WILL LIKELY MOVE BACK IN OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE LITTLE DIURNAL
RANGE WITH MOST AREAS STAYING CLOUDY. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 20S IN
MOST AREAS AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

ON MONDAY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE. THE
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TO FINALLY ERODE THE
LOW STRATUS FROM THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE LAKE PLAINS WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. THE STRATUS MAY BE MORE DIFFICULT TO
DISLODGE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER...
FINGER LAKES...AND TUG HILL REGION WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN THE MID LEVELS
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WILL JUST BRING A MODEST INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL CLOUD WITH ANY LIGHT PRECIP REMAINING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BOOST
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES OVER RECENT DAYS...WITH UPPER 30S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND MID 30S ON THE HILLS AND NORTH COUNTRY.
SOME OF THE TYPICALLY WARMER LOCATIONS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY MAY
PUSH 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FOCUS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL BE ON A STORM EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES LATER TUESDAY THEN MERGE WITH
A NORTHERN STREAM LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON CHRISTMAS EVE.
THIS WILL BRING VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE TO AT TIMES
HEAVY RAINFALL ON CHRISTMAS EVE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
POSSIBLY STRONG WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

LEADING UP TO CHRISTMAS EVE THE WEATHER WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO ABOVE AVERAGE AND A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LIE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT INCREASING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WILL BRING OVERCAST SKIES WHILE
WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF A SHOWER ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK.
MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT BECOME FULLY SATURATED UNTIL LATE TUESDAY
WITH MUCH OF THE LIGHT SHOWERS BEFOREHAND DRYING UP BEFORE REACHING
THE GROUND. IT IS WORTH A MENTION THAT ANY PRECIP THAT COULD REACH
THE SURFACE EARLY TUESDAY WHEN TEMPS ARE STILL HOVERING NEAR
FREEZING MAY FALL AS A LIGHT WINTERY MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ESPECIALLY BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS WELL
ABOVE FREEZING SO PLAIN RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE HERE.

THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND +10C. MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THEN TEMPS PUSH WELL INTO THE 40S WITH AROUND 50 ALONG
THE LAKESHORES ON TUESDAY WITH A DOWNSLOPE SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE
ERIE SHORELINE.

ON CHRISTMAS EVE A PLUME OF MOISTURE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WILL SHIFT
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SURFACE LOW AS IT MERGES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. NAEFS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE OVER ONE INCH WHICH IS
NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN A 30 YEAR PWAT CLIMO. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S CHRISTMAS EVE SHOULD YIELD
SOME MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS MAY
ALSO HELP TO DRAG DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A 50 KNOT
850MB JET STREAKING OVERHEAD. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS AND
INCREASING WINDS...DOWNSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST SURFACE
TEMPS INTO THE 50S WITH A RUN AT 60 DEGREES FOR BUFFALO AND
ROCHESTER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THESE NUMBERS ARE 20+ DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL LATE DECEMBER HIGHS.

A SHARP COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW IS FAVORABLE
FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH THE FALLING
PRESSURES WITHIN THE LOW ALSO REQUIRED FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT. WINDS
OF 50-60 KNOTS WILL BE FOUND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WITH COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT HELPING TO MIX THESE STRONG WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. CIPS ANALOGS FOR THIS EVENT AND THE SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
LEAN TOWARD MAINLY A WESTERN NEW YORK EVENT POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS WELL INLAND
FROM THE LAKES. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 60 MPH EAST OF LAKE ERIE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY EVENTUALLY BRING THE NEED FOR A HIGH WIND
WATCH IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES SHIFTING ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW
YORK WHICH WILL ENSURE A GUSTY CHRISTMAS DAY. WINDS GUSTS INTO THE
40S SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST WIND ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY.

COLD AIR WILL ALSO WORK ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO MENTION THAT WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES THE SOURCE REGION OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC
BASED AND NOT ARCTIC BASED SO THIS LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL
BRING A REDUCED THREAT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY. 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK TO ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN -5C AND
-8C. THIS SHOULD ONLY ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL INTO THE
MID 30S WITH LOW 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LATEST FORECAST
CONTINUES TO REFLECT A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SOME LIMITED WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME WEAK
LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LINGERING POST FRONTAL
MOISTURE AND LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 5KFT
DURING THE DAY.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER BACK INTO THE MID 40S
AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAKER GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH LOOKS TO
BRING A SHOT OF WESTERN CANADIAN SOURCED AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR SATURDAY
THEN PLAIN SNOW SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPS BACK TO AROUND
FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WEAK SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW STRATUS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS IN MOST
AREAS. LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL INCREASE. THE DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP TO ERODE
THE STRATUS DECK ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING
OUT AND CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. STRATUS MAY LOCK IN LONGER ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND TUG
HILL REGION WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE DRIFTING
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY TUESDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE SOME ON MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THEN CROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
THURSDAY. THIS IS A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TRACK FOR STRONG WINDS
ON THE LOWER LAKES...WITH A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON
BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KALY 212319
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
619 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT...AND A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT ANY LINGERING SNOW ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FA TO COME TO AN END THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE IF
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS SLIDES EAST OF THE FA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FA WILL BE DRY WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT AND LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS MOISTURE
STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA AND
EVENTUALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA BY MORNING. PARTIAL THICKNESS
VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET MIXING IN. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH
OF A DROP FROM DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...FREEZING RAIN WILL LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH ALL RAIN FROM MID
MORNING TUESDAY ON ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

TUESDAY NIGHT A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. AS THE LOW
APPROACHES IT WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
SUCH THAT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS WET AND MILD TO START FOR CHRISTMAS
EVE...AND THEN BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR CHRISTMAS
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH PERHAPS SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CLOSE THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS HAVE MENTIONED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...A
POTENTIAL MULTI-HAZARD EVENT IS POSSIBLE WED INTO THU WITH A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WELL WEST OF THE REGION FROM THE TN
VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE CANADA.  THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING MILDER WX ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS...AND A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE.  ALSO STRONG S TO SW WINDS
AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING SFC CYCLONE ARE EXPECTED WED
INTO WED PM...AND A BAND OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.  THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS COUPLED WITH 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 24 HRS OR LESS...AND SNOW MELT COULD PRODUCE
SOME MINOR HYDRO ISSUES.  ALSO THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...AND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 970 HPA OR LOWER OVER WRN QUEBEC COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG W/NW WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS.

WED-WED NIGHT...INITIAL BURST OF RAINFALL DURING THE DAY ON WED WILL
BE WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285/290K SFC.  THE WARM FRONT
SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AN ANOMALOUS
SOUTHERLY LLJ JET OF 40-60 KTS AT H850 WILL ADVECT IN ANOMALOUS PWAT
VALUES OF 3 TO 5 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
GEFS.  THE +V-WIND ANOMALIES /SOUTHERLIES/ ARE 2 TO 3 STD DEVS ABOVE
NORMAL.  THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  H850 TEMPS RISE TO +10C TO
+12C IN THE WARM SECTOR.  THE NARROW COLD FRONT RAINBAND LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM BTWN
06Z-12Z/THU...AS THE CYCLONE DEEPENS AND INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES
N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY.  HIGH TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS EVE WILL BE IN THE
MID TO U50S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST /NEARLY 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/...AND M40S TO L50S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  AS
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN WED NIGHT...EXPECT SOME OF THE RAIN TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE SRN DACKS.  PERHAPS AN
INCH OR SO OF WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE.  LOWS CHRISTMAS MORNING WILL BE
IN THE MID TO U30S WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER TO
MID 40S FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EAST.

CHRISTMAS-CHRISTMAS NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER
WRN QUEBEC NEAR JAMES BAY.  SIGNIFICANT MSLP PRESSURE RISES WILL BE
OCCURRING OVER THE FCST AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.  BLUSTERY W/NW WINDS OF 15 TO 30
MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE DEEPER
MIXING AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT.  A WIND HEADLINE
MAY BE NEEDED HERE FOR PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.  SOME WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE WRN DACKS...AND WRN
GREENS.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M30S TO U40S FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA.  THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF CHRISTMAS NIGHT WITH
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS WEST OF THE TRI CITIES.  LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID 20S TO L30S.

FRI-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RIDGES IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE
MID LEVEL FLOW W/SW ALOFT.  A CLIPPER TYPE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SRN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY.  THIS SYSTEM LIFTS
N/NE INTO QUEBEC WITH SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.  SOME ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY GET INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  HIGH WILL BE IN
THE M30S TO M40S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO L30S.  HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COLDER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE L30S TO U30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO L40S
IN THE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...NORTHEAST AND EAST COAST.  THE GFS HAS WEAK
IMPULSES IN THE W/NW CYCLONIC FLOW FOCUSING LAKE EFFECT AND W/NW
UPSLOPE SNOWFALL.  THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
HANGING CLOSE TO THE COAST.  A COASTAL WAVE MOVES ALONG IT SUNDAY
FOR SOME SNOWFALL FOR MOST OF THE REGION.  A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS...SO A LOW CHC OF SNOWFALL WAS USED FOR THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA ON SUNDAY.  TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE FOR LATE DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRATUS DECK REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER MASSIVE INVERSIONS OVER FCA
WITH LITTLE CHANGE LIKELY THROHGH THE TAF PERIOD.  MAINLY MVFR
CIGS AND VSBY WITH WIDESPREAD HIR TRRN OBSCD. GRADUALLY LOWERING
CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR CONDS DVLPG. WK UVM ASSOC WITH
WK 500 HPA CUT OFF OVER RGN...AND LOW LVL ATLC MOISTURE INFLOW
WILL RESULT IN SCT -SHSN/ISOLD ZL OVER W NEW ENG AND SOUTHERN MOST
AREAS OF NYS. CONDS IN THESE AREAS COULD BCM WIDESPREAD IFR
OVERNIGHT.

ON MONDAY...LINGERING PATCHY -SN AND OR ZL WILL DIMINISH EARLY.
OTRW IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...FROM THE N TO NE AT LESS THAN 8 KT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT
SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...KL/SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...11/NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 212319
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
619 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT...AND A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT ANY LINGERING SNOW ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FA TO COME TO AN END THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE IF
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS SLIDES EAST OF THE FA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FA WILL BE DRY WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT AND LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS MOISTURE
STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA AND
EVENTUALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA BY MORNING. PARTIAL THICKNESS
VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET MIXING IN. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH
OF A DROP FROM DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...FREEZING RAIN WILL LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH ALL RAIN FROM MID
MORNING TUESDAY ON ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

TUESDAY NIGHT A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. AS THE LOW
APPROACHES IT WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
SUCH THAT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS WET AND MILD TO START FOR CHRISTMAS
EVE...AND THEN BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR CHRISTMAS
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH PERHAPS SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CLOSE THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS HAVE MENTIONED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...A
POTENTIAL MULTI-HAZARD EVENT IS POSSIBLE WED INTO THU WITH A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WELL WEST OF THE REGION FROM THE TN
VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE CANADA.  THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING MILDER WX ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS...AND A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE.  ALSO STRONG S TO SW WINDS
AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING SFC CYCLONE ARE EXPECTED WED
INTO WED PM...AND A BAND OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.  THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS COUPLED WITH 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 24 HRS OR LESS...AND SNOW MELT COULD PRODUCE
SOME MINOR HYDRO ISSUES.  ALSO THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...AND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 970 HPA OR LOWER OVER WRN QUEBEC COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG W/NW WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS.

WED-WED NIGHT...INITIAL BURST OF RAINFALL DURING THE DAY ON WED WILL
BE WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285/290K SFC.  THE WARM FRONT
SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AN ANOMALOUS
SOUTHERLY LLJ JET OF 40-60 KTS AT H850 WILL ADVECT IN ANOMALOUS PWAT
VALUES OF 3 TO 5 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
GEFS.  THE +V-WIND ANOMALIES /SOUTHERLIES/ ARE 2 TO 3 STD DEVS ABOVE
NORMAL.  THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  H850 TEMPS RISE TO +10C TO
+12C IN THE WARM SECTOR.  THE NARROW COLD FRONT RAINBAND LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM BTWN
06Z-12Z/THU...AS THE CYCLONE DEEPENS AND INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES
N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY.  HIGH TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS EVE WILL BE IN THE
MID TO U50S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST /NEARLY 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/...AND M40S TO L50S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  AS
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN WED NIGHT...EXPECT SOME OF THE RAIN TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE SRN DACKS.  PERHAPS AN
INCH OR SO OF WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE.  LOWS CHRISTMAS MORNING WILL BE
IN THE MID TO U30S WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER TO
MID 40S FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EAST.

CHRISTMAS-CHRISTMAS NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER
WRN QUEBEC NEAR JAMES BAY.  SIGNIFICANT MSLP PRESSURE RISES WILL BE
OCCURRING OVER THE FCST AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.  BLUSTERY W/NW WINDS OF 15 TO 30
MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE DEEPER
MIXING AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT.  A WIND HEADLINE
MAY BE NEEDED HERE FOR PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.  SOME WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE WRN DACKS...AND WRN
GREENS.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M30S TO U40S FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA.  THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF CHRISTMAS NIGHT WITH
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS WEST OF THE TRI CITIES.  LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID 20S TO L30S.

FRI-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RIDGES IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE
MID LEVEL FLOW W/SW ALOFT.  A CLIPPER TYPE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SRN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY.  THIS SYSTEM LIFTS
N/NE INTO QUEBEC WITH SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.  SOME ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY GET INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  HIGH WILL BE IN
THE M30S TO M40S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO L30S.  HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COLDER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE L30S TO U30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO L40S
IN THE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...NORTHEAST AND EAST COAST.  THE GFS HAS WEAK
IMPULSES IN THE W/NW CYCLONIC FLOW FOCUSING LAKE EFFECT AND W/NW
UPSLOPE SNOWFALL.  THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
HANGING CLOSE TO THE COAST.  A COASTAL WAVE MOVES ALONG IT SUNDAY
FOR SOME SNOWFALL FOR MOST OF THE REGION.  A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS...SO A LOW CHC OF SNOWFALL WAS USED FOR THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA ON SUNDAY.  TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE FOR LATE DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRATUS DECK REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER MASSIVE INVERSIONS OVER FCA
WITH LITTLE CHANGE LIKELY THROHGH THE TAF PERIOD.  MAINLY MVFR
CIGS AND VSBY WITH WIDESPREAD HIR TRRN OBSCD. GRADUALLY LOWERING
CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR CONDS DVLPG. WK UVM ASSOC WITH
WK 500 HPA CUT OFF OVER RGN...AND LOW LVL ATLC MOISTURE INFLOW
WILL RESULT IN SCT -SHSN/ISOLD ZL OVER W NEW ENG AND SOUTHERN MOST
AREAS OF NYS. CONDS IN THESE AREAS COULD BCM WIDESPREAD IFR
OVERNIGHT.

ON MONDAY...LINGERING PATCHY -SN AND OR ZL WILL DIMINISH EARLY.
OTRW IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...FROM THE N TO NE AT LESS THAN 8 KT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT
SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...KL/SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...11/NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 212119
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
419 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT...AND A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT ANY LINGERING SNOW ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FA TO COME TO AN END THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE IF
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS SLIDES EAST OF THE FA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FA WILL BE DRY WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT AND LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS MOISTURE
STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA AND
EVENTUALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA BY MORNING. PARTIAL THICKNESS
VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET MIXING IN. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH
OF A DROP FROM DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...FREEZING RAIN WILL LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH ALL RAIN FROM MID
MORNING TUESDAY ON ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

TUESDAY NIGHT A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. AS THE LOW
APPROACHES IT WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
SUCH THAT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS WET AND MILD TO START FOR CHRISTMAS
EVE...AND THEN BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR CHRISTMAS
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH PERHAPS SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CLOSE THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS HAVE MENTIONED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...A
POTENTIAL MULTI-HAZARD EVENT IS POSSIBLE WED INTO THU WITH A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WELL WEST OF THE REGION FROM THE TN
VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE CANADA.  THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING MILDER WX ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS...AND A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE.  ALSO STRONG S TO SW WINDS
AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING SFC CYCLONE ARE EXPECTED WED
INTO WED PM...AND A BAND OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.  THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS COUPLED WITH 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 24 HRS OR LESS...AND SNOW MELT COULD PRODUCE
SOME MINOR HYDRO ISSUES.  ALSO THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...AND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 970 HPA OR LOWER OVER WRN QUEBEC COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG W/NW WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS.

WED-WED NIGHT...INITIAL BURST OF RAINFALL DURING THE DAY ON WED WILL
BE WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285/290K SFC.  THE WARM FRONT
SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AN ANOMALOUS
SOUTHERLY LLJ JET OF 40-60 KTS AT H850 WILL ADVECT IN ANOMALOUS PWAT
VALUES OF 3 TO 5 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
GEFS.  THE +V-WIND ANOMALIES /SOUTHERLIES/ ARE 2 TO 3 STD DEVS ABOVE
NORMAL.  THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  H850 TEMPS RISE TO +10C TO
+12C IN THE WARM SECTOR.  THE NARROW COLD FRONT RAINBAND LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM BTWN
06Z-12Z/THU...AS THE CYCLONE DEEPENS AND INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES
N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY.  HIGH TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS EVE WILL BE IN THE
MID TO U50S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST /NEARLY 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/...AND M40S TO L50S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  AS
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN WED NIGHT...EXPECT SOME OF THE RAIN TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE SRN DACKS.  PERHAPS AN
INCH OR SO OF WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE.  LOWS CHRISTMAS MORNING WILL BE
IN THE MID TO U30S WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER TO
MID 40S FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EAST.

CHRISTMAS-CHRISTMAS NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER
WRN QUEBEC NEAR JAMES BAY.  SIGNIFICANT MSLP PRESSURE RISES WILL BE
OCCURRING OVER THE FCST AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.  BLUSTERY W/NW WINDS OF 15 TO 30
MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE DEEPER
MIXING AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT.  A WIND HEADLINE
MAY BE NEEDED HERE FOR PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.  SOME WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE WRN DACKS...AND WRN
GREENS.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M30S TO U40S FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA.  THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF CHRISTMAS NIGHT WITH
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS WEST OF THE TRI CITIES.  LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID 20S TO L30S.

FRI-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RIDGES IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE
MID LEVEL FLOW W/SW ALOFT.  A CLIPPER TYPE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SRN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY.  THIS SYSTEM LIFTS
N/NE INTO QUEBEC WITH SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.  SOME ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY GET INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  HIGH WILL BE IN
THE M30S TO M40S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO L30S.  HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COLDER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE L30S TO U30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO L40S
IN THE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...NORTHEAST AND EAST COAST.  THE GFS HAS WEAK
IMPULSES IN THE W/NW CYCLONIC FLOW FOCUSING LAKE EFFECT AND W/NW
UPSLOPE SNOWFALL.  THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
HANGING CLOSE TO THE COAST.  A COASTAL WAVE MOVES ALONG IT SUNDAY
FOR SOME SNOWFALL FOR MOST OF THE REGION.  A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS...SO A LOW CHC OF SNOWFALL WAS USED FOR THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA ON SUNDAY.  TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE FOR LATE DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND A MOIST FLOW ALOFT
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...HAS ALLOWED AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW/SNOW
GRAINS TO OCCUR AT THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT
THIS LIGHT SNOW TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM NW TO
SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BEFORE IT DOES...MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT THROUGH
AROUND 20Z/SUN AT KPOU AND KPSF. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE SLIGHTLY
INTO THE MVFR RANGE AFTER THE SNOW TAPERS OFF.

FOR TONIGHT...A CONTINUED STREAM OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE TAF SITES. THIS MAY ALLOW ADDITIONAL PATCHY VERY
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW GRAINS TO REDEVELOP. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY
THAT SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURS...ESP AT KPSF AND KPOU AFTER
03Z-06Z/MON. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SNOW SHOWERS...BUT
AGAIN...OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO LOW MVFR AND IFR THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR PERSISTENT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT KPSF...AND KPOU.

ON MONDAY...LINGERING PATCHY LIGHT SNOW GRAINS AND/OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH BETWEEN 15Z-18Z/MON.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY TOWARD OR AFTER 18Z/MON.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...FROM THE N TO NE AT LESS THAN 8 KT THROUGH
18Z/MON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT
SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11/NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 212119
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
419 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT...AND A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT ANY LINGERING SNOW ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FA TO COME TO AN END THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE IF
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS SLIDES EAST OF THE FA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FA WILL BE DRY WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT AND LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS MOISTURE
STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA AND
EVENTUALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA BY MORNING. PARTIAL THICKNESS
VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET MIXING IN. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH
OF A DROP FROM DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...FREEZING RAIN WILL LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH ALL RAIN FROM MID
MORNING TUESDAY ON ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

TUESDAY NIGHT A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. AS THE LOW
APPROACHES IT WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
SUCH THAT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS WET AND MILD TO START FOR CHRISTMAS
EVE...AND THEN BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR CHRISTMAS
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH PERHAPS SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CLOSE THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS HAVE MENTIONED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...A
POTENTIAL MULTI-HAZARD EVENT IS POSSIBLE WED INTO THU WITH A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WELL WEST OF THE REGION FROM THE TN
VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE CANADA.  THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING MILDER WX ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS...AND A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE.  ALSO STRONG S TO SW WINDS
AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING SFC CYCLONE ARE EXPECTED WED
INTO WED PM...AND A BAND OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.  THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS COUPLED WITH 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 24 HRS OR LESS...AND SNOW MELT COULD PRODUCE
SOME MINOR HYDRO ISSUES.  ALSO THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...AND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 970 HPA OR LOWER OVER WRN QUEBEC COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG W/NW WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS.

WED-WED NIGHT...INITIAL BURST OF RAINFALL DURING THE DAY ON WED WILL
BE WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285/290K SFC.  THE WARM FRONT
SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AN ANOMALOUS
SOUTHERLY LLJ JET OF 40-60 KTS AT H850 WILL ADVECT IN ANOMALOUS PWAT
VALUES OF 3 TO 5 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
GEFS.  THE +V-WIND ANOMALIES /SOUTHERLIES/ ARE 2 TO 3 STD DEVS ABOVE
NORMAL.  THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  H850 TEMPS RISE TO +10C TO
+12C IN THE WARM SECTOR.  THE NARROW COLD FRONT RAINBAND LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM BTWN
06Z-12Z/THU...AS THE CYCLONE DEEPENS AND INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES
N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY.  HIGH TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS EVE WILL BE IN THE
MID TO U50S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST /NEARLY 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/...AND M40S TO L50S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  AS
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN WED NIGHT...EXPECT SOME OF THE RAIN TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE SRN DACKS.  PERHAPS AN
INCH OR SO OF WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE.  LOWS CHRISTMAS MORNING WILL BE
IN THE MID TO U30S WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER TO
MID 40S FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EAST.

CHRISTMAS-CHRISTMAS NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER
WRN QUEBEC NEAR JAMES BAY.  SIGNIFICANT MSLP PRESSURE RISES WILL BE
OCCURRING OVER THE FCST AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.  BLUSTERY W/NW WINDS OF 15 TO 30
MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE DEEPER
MIXING AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT.  A WIND HEADLINE
MAY BE NEEDED HERE FOR PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.  SOME WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE WRN DACKS...AND WRN
GREENS.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M30S TO U40S FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA.  THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF CHRISTMAS NIGHT WITH
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS WEST OF THE TRI CITIES.  LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID 20S TO L30S.

FRI-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RIDGES IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE
MID LEVEL FLOW W/SW ALOFT.  A CLIPPER TYPE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SRN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY.  THIS SYSTEM LIFTS
N/NE INTO QUEBEC WITH SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.  SOME ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY GET INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  HIGH WILL BE IN
THE M30S TO M40S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO L30S.  HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COLDER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE L30S TO U30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO L40S
IN THE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...NORTHEAST AND EAST COAST.  THE GFS HAS WEAK
IMPULSES IN THE W/NW CYCLONIC FLOW FOCUSING LAKE EFFECT AND W/NW
UPSLOPE SNOWFALL.  THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
HANGING CLOSE TO THE COAST.  A COASTAL WAVE MOVES ALONG IT SUNDAY
FOR SOME SNOWFALL FOR MOST OF THE REGION.  A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS...SO A LOW CHC OF SNOWFALL WAS USED FOR THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA ON SUNDAY.  TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE FOR LATE DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND A MOIST FLOW ALOFT
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...HAS ALLOWED AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW/SNOW
GRAINS TO OCCUR AT THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT
THIS LIGHT SNOW TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM NW TO
SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BEFORE IT DOES...MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT THROUGH
AROUND 20Z/SUN AT KPOU AND KPSF. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE SLIGHTLY
INTO THE MVFR RANGE AFTER THE SNOW TAPERS OFF.

FOR TONIGHT...A CONTINUED STREAM OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE TAF SITES. THIS MAY ALLOW ADDITIONAL PATCHY VERY
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW GRAINS TO REDEVELOP. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY
THAT SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURS...ESP AT KPSF AND KPOU AFTER
03Z-06Z/MON. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SNOW SHOWERS...BUT
AGAIN...OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO LOW MVFR AND IFR THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR PERSISTENT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT KPSF...AND KPOU.

ON MONDAY...LINGERING PATCHY LIGHT SNOW GRAINS AND/OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH BETWEEN 15Z-18Z/MON.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY TOWARD OR AFTER 18Z/MON.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...FROM THE N TO NE AT LESS THAN 8 KT THROUGH
18Z/MON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT
SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11/NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 212113
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
413 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT...AND A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT ANY LINGERING SNOW ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FA TO COME TO AN END THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE IF
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS SLIDES EAST OF THE FA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FA WILL BE DRY WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT AND LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS MOISTURE
STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA AND
EVENTUALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA BY MORNING. PARTIAL THICKNESS
VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET MIXING IN. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH
OF A DROP FROM DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...FREEZING RAIN WILL LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH ALL RAIN FROM MID
MORNING TUESDAY ON ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

TUESDAY NIGHT A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. AS THE LOW
APPROACHES IT WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
SUCH THAT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS WET AND MILD TO START FOR CHRISTMAS
EVE...AND THEN BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR CHRISTMAS
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH PERHAPS SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CLOSE THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS HAVE MENTIONED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...A
POTENTIAL MULTI-HAZARD EVENT IS POSSIBLE WED INTO THU WITH A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WELL WEST OF THE REGION FROM THE TN
VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE CANADA.  THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING MILDER WX ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS...AND A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE.  ALSO STRONG S TO SW WINDS
AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING SFC CYCLONE ARE EXPECTED WED
INTO WED PM...AND A BAND OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.  THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS COUPLED WITH 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 24 HRS OR LESS...AND SNOW MELT COULD PRODUCE
SOME MINOR HYDRO ISSUES.  ALSO THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...AND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 970 HPA OR LOWER OVER WRN QUEBEC COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG W/NW WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS.

WED-WED NIGHT...INITIAL BURST OF RAINFALL DURING THE DAY ON WED WILL
BE WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285/290K SFC.  THE WARM FRONT
SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AN ANOMALOUS
SOUTHERLY LLJ JET OF 40-60 KTS AT H850 WILL ADVECT IN ANOMALOUS PWAT
VALUES OF 3 TO 5 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
GEFS.  THE +V-WIND ANOMALIES /SOUTHERLIES/ ARE 2 TO 3 STD DEVS ABOVE
NORMAL.  THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  H850 TEMPS RISE TO +10C TO
+12C IN THE WARM SECTOR.  THE NARROW COLD FRONT RAINBAND LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM BTWN
06Z-12Z/THU...AS THE CYCLONE DEEPENS AND INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES
N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY.  HIGH TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS EVE WILL BE IN THE
MID TO U50S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST /NEARLY 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/...AND M40S TO L50S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  AS
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN WED NIGHT...EXPECT SOME OF THE RAIN TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE SRN DACKS.  PERHAPS AN
INCH OR SO OF WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE.  LOWS CHRISTMAS MORNING WILL BE
IN THE MID TO U30S WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER TO
MID 40S FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EAST.

CHRISTMAS-CHRISTMAS NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER
WRN QUEBEC NEAR JAMES BAY.  SIGNIFICANT MSLP PRESSURE RISES WILL BE
OCCURRING OVER THE FCST AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.  BLUSTERY W/NW WINDS OF 15 TO 30
MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE DEEPER
MIXING AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT.  A WIND HEADLINE
MAY BE NEEDED HERE FOR PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.  SOME WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE WRN DACKS...AND WRN
GREENS.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M30S TO U40S FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA.  THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF CHRISTMAS NIGHT WITH
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS WEST OF THE TRI CITIES.  LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID 20S TO L30S.

FRI-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RIDGES IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE
MID LEVEL FLOW W/SW ALOFT.  A CLIPPER TYPE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SRN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY.  THIS SYSTEM LIFTS
N/NE INTO QUEBEC WITH SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.  SOME ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY GET INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  HIGH WILL BE IN
THE M30S TO M40S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO L30S.  HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COLDER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE L30S TO U30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO L40S
IN THE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...NORTHEAST AND EAST COAST.  THE GFS HAS WEAK
IMPULSES IN THE W/NW CYCLONIC FLOW FOCUSING LAKE EFFECT AND W/NW
UPSLOPE SNOWFALL.  THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
HANGING CLOSE TO THE COAST.  A COASTAL WAVE MOVES ALONG IT SUNDAY
FOR SOME SNOWFALL FOR MOST OF THE REGION.  A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS...SO A LOW CHC OF SNOWFALL WAS USED FOR THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA ON SUNDAY.  TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE FOR LATE DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND A MOIST FLOW ALOFT
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...HAS ALLOWED AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW/SNOW
GRAINS TO OCCUR AT THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT
THIS LIGHT SNOW TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM NW TO
SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BEFORE IT DOES...MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT THROUGH
AROUND 20Z/SUN AT KPOU AND KPSF. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE SLIGHTLY
INTO THE MVFR RANGE AFTER THE SNOW TAPERS OFF.

FOR TONIGHT...A CONTINUED STREAM OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE TAF SITES. THIS MAY ALLOW ADDITIONAL PATCHY VERY
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW GRAINS TO REDEVELOP. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY
THAT SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURS...ESP AT KPSF AND KPOU AFTER
03Z-06Z/MON. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SNOW SHOWERS...BUT
AGAIN...OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO LOW MVFR AND IFR THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR PERSISTENT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT KPSF...AND KPOU.

ON MONDAY...LINGERING PATCHY LIGHT SNOW GRAINS AND/OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH BETWEEN 15Z-18Z/MON.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY TOWARD OR AFTER 18Z/MON.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...FROM THE N TO NE AT LESS THAN 8 KT THROUGH
18Z/MON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT
SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KALY 212113
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
413 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT...AND A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT ANY LINGERING SNOW ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FA TO COME TO AN END THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE IF
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS SLIDES EAST OF THE FA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FA WILL BE DRY WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT AND LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS MOISTURE
STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA AND
EVENTUALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA BY MORNING. PARTIAL THICKNESS
VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET MIXING IN. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH
OF A DROP FROM DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...FREEZING RAIN WILL LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH ALL RAIN FROM MID
MORNING TUESDAY ON ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

TUESDAY NIGHT A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. AS THE LOW
APPROACHES IT WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
SUCH THAT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS WET AND MILD TO START FOR CHRISTMAS
EVE...AND THEN BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR CHRISTMAS
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH PERHAPS SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CLOSE THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS HAVE MENTIONED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...A
POTENTIAL MULTI-HAZARD EVENT IS POSSIBLE WED INTO THU WITH A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WELL WEST OF THE REGION FROM THE TN
VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE CANADA.  THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING MILDER WX ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS...AND A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE.  ALSO STRONG S TO SW WINDS
AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING SFC CYCLONE ARE EXPECTED WED
INTO WED PM...AND A BAND OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.  THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS COUPLED WITH 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 24 HRS OR LESS...AND SNOW MELT COULD PRODUCE
SOME MINOR HYDRO ISSUES.  ALSO THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...AND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 970 HPA OR LOWER OVER WRN QUEBEC COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG W/NW WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS.

WED-WED NIGHT...INITIAL BURST OF RAINFALL DURING THE DAY ON WED WILL
BE WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285/290K SFC.  THE WARM FRONT
SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AN ANOMALOUS
SOUTHERLY LLJ JET OF 40-60 KTS AT H850 WILL ADVECT IN ANOMALOUS PWAT
VALUES OF 3 TO 5 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
GEFS.  THE +V-WIND ANOMALIES /SOUTHERLIES/ ARE 2 TO 3 STD DEVS ABOVE
NORMAL.  THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  H850 TEMPS RISE TO +10C TO
+12C IN THE WARM SECTOR.  THE NARROW COLD FRONT RAINBAND LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM BTWN
06Z-12Z/THU...AS THE CYCLONE DEEPENS AND INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES
N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY.  HIGH TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS EVE WILL BE IN THE
MID TO U50S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST /NEARLY 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/...AND M40S TO L50S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  AS
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN WED NIGHT...EXPECT SOME OF THE RAIN TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE SRN DACKS.  PERHAPS AN
INCH OR SO OF WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE.  LOWS CHRISTMAS MORNING WILL BE
IN THE MID TO U30S WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER TO
MID 40S FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EAST.

CHRISTMAS-CHRISTMAS NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER
WRN QUEBEC NEAR JAMES BAY.  SIGNIFICANT MSLP PRESSURE RISES WILL BE
OCCURRING OVER THE FCST AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.  BLUSTERY W/NW WINDS OF 15 TO 30
MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE DEEPER
MIXING AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT.  A WIND HEADLINE
MAY BE NEEDED HERE FOR PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.  SOME WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE WRN DACKS...AND WRN
GREENS.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M30S TO U40S FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA.  THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF CHRISTMAS NIGHT WITH
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS WEST OF THE TRI CITIES.  LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID 20S TO L30S.

FRI-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RIDGES IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE
MID LEVEL FLOW W/SW ALOFT.  A CLIPPER TYPE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SRN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY.  THIS SYSTEM LIFTS
N/NE INTO QUEBEC WITH SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.  SOME ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY GET INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  HIGH WILL BE IN
THE M30S TO M40S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO L30S.  HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COLDER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE L30S TO U30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO L40S
IN THE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...NORTHEAST AND EAST COAST.  THE GFS HAS WEAK
IMPULSES IN THE W/NW CYCLONIC FLOW FOCUSING LAKE EFFECT AND W/NW
UPSLOPE SNOWFALL.  THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
HANGING CLOSE TO THE COAST.  A COASTAL WAVE MOVES ALONG IT SUNDAY
FOR SOME SNOWFALL FOR MOST OF THE REGION.  A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS...SO A LOW CHC OF SNOWFALL WAS USED FOR THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA ON SUNDAY.  TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE FOR LATE DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND A MOIST FLOW ALOFT
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...HAS ALLOWED AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW/SNOW
GRAINS TO OCCUR AT THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT
THIS LIGHT SNOW TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM NW TO
SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BEFORE IT DOES...MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT THROUGH
AROUND 20Z/SUN AT KPOU AND KPSF. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE SLIGHTLY
INTO THE MVFR RANGE AFTER THE SNOW TAPERS OFF.

FOR TONIGHT...A CONTINUED STREAM OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE TAF SITES. THIS MAY ALLOW ADDITIONAL PATCHY VERY
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW GRAINS TO REDEVELOP. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY
THAT SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURS...ESP AT KPSF AND KPOU AFTER
03Z-06Z/MON. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SNOW SHOWERS...BUT
AGAIN...OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO LOW MVFR AND IFR THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR PERSISTENT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT KPSF...AND KPOU.

ON MONDAY...LINGERING PATCHY LIGHT SNOW GRAINS AND/OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH BETWEEN 15Z-18Z/MON.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY TOWARD OR AFTER 18Z/MON.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...FROM THE N TO NE AT LESS THAN 8 KT THROUGH
18Z/MON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT
SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KALY 212113
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
413 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT...AND A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT ANY LINGERING SNOW ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FA TO COME TO AN END THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE IF
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS SLIDES EAST OF THE FA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FA WILL BE DRY WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT AND LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS MOISTURE
STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA AND
EVENTUALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA BY MORNING. PARTIAL THICKNESS
VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET MIXING IN. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH
OF A DROP FROM DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...FREEZING RAIN WILL LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH ALL RAIN FROM MID
MORNING TUESDAY ON ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

TUESDAY NIGHT A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. AS THE LOW
APPROACHES IT WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
SUCH THAT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS WET AND MILD TO START FOR CHRISTMAS
EVE...AND THEN BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR CHRISTMAS
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH PERHAPS SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CLOSE THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS HAVE MENTIONED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...A
POTENTIAL MULTI-HAZARD EVENT IS POSSIBLE WED INTO THU WITH A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WELL WEST OF THE REGION FROM THE TN
VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE CANADA.  THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING MILDER WX ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS...AND A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE.  ALSO STRONG S TO SW WINDS
AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING SFC CYCLONE ARE EXPECTED WED
INTO WED PM...AND A BAND OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.  THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS COUPLED WITH 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 24 HRS OR LESS...AND SNOW MELT COULD PRODUCE
SOME MINOR HYDRO ISSUES.  ALSO THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...AND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 970 HPA OR LOWER OVER WRN QUEBEC COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG W/NW WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS.

WED-WED NIGHT...INITIAL BURST OF RAINFALL DURING THE DAY ON WED WILL
BE WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285/290K SFC.  THE WARM FRONT
SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AN ANOMALOUS
SOUTHERLY LLJ JET OF 40-60 KTS AT H850 WILL ADVECT IN ANOMALOUS PWAT
VALUES OF 3 TO 5 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
GEFS.  THE +V-WIND ANOMALIES /SOUTHERLIES/ ARE 2 TO 3 STD DEVS ABOVE
NORMAL.  THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  H850 TEMPS RISE TO +10C TO
+12C IN THE WARM SECTOR.  THE NARROW COLD FRONT RAINBAND LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM BTWN
06Z-12Z/THU...AS THE CYCLONE DEEPENS AND INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES
N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY.  HIGH TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS EVE WILL BE IN THE
MID TO U50S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST /NEARLY 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/...AND M40S TO L50S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  AS
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN WED NIGHT...EXPECT SOME OF THE RAIN TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE SRN DACKS.  PERHAPS AN
INCH OR SO OF WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE.  LOWS CHRISTMAS MORNING WILL BE
IN THE MID TO U30S WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER TO
MID 40S FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EAST.

CHRISTMAS-CHRISTMAS NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER
WRN QUEBEC NEAR JAMES BAY.  SIGNIFICANT MSLP PRESSURE RISES WILL BE
OCCURRING OVER THE FCST AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.  BLUSTERY W/NW WINDS OF 15 TO 30
MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE DEEPER
MIXING AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT.  A WIND HEADLINE
MAY BE NEEDED HERE FOR PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.  SOME WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE WRN DACKS...AND WRN
GREENS.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M30S TO U40S FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA.  THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF CHRISTMAS NIGHT WITH
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS WEST OF THE TRI CITIES.  LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID 20S TO L30S.

FRI-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RIDGES IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE
MID LEVEL FLOW W/SW ALOFT.  A CLIPPER TYPE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SRN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY.  THIS SYSTEM LIFTS
N/NE INTO QUEBEC WITH SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.  SOME ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY GET INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  HIGH WILL BE IN
THE M30S TO M40S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO L30S.  HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COLDER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE L30S TO U30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO L40S
IN THE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...NORTHEAST AND EAST COAST.  THE GFS HAS WEAK
IMPULSES IN THE W/NW CYCLONIC FLOW FOCUSING LAKE EFFECT AND W/NW
UPSLOPE SNOWFALL.  THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
HANGING CLOSE TO THE COAST.  A COASTAL WAVE MOVES ALONG IT SUNDAY
FOR SOME SNOWFALL FOR MOST OF THE REGION.  A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS...SO A LOW CHC OF SNOWFALL WAS USED FOR THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA ON SUNDAY.  TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE FOR LATE DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND A MOIST FLOW ALOFT
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...HAS ALLOWED AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW/SNOW
GRAINS TO OCCUR AT THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT
THIS LIGHT SNOW TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM NW TO
SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BEFORE IT DOES...MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT THROUGH
AROUND 20Z/SUN AT KPOU AND KPSF. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE SLIGHTLY
INTO THE MVFR RANGE AFTER THE SNOW TAPERS OFF.

FOR TONIGHT...A CONTINUED STREAM OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE TAF SITES. THIS MAY ALLOW ADDITIONAL PATCHY VERY
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW GRAINS TO REDEVELOP. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY
THAT SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURS...ESP AT KPSF AND KPOU AFTER
03Z-06Z/MON. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SNOW SHOWERS...BUT
AGAIN...OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO LOW MVFR AND IFR THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR PERSISTENT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT KPSF...AND KPOU.

ON MONDAY...LINGERING PATCHY LIGHT SNOW GRAINS AND/OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH BETWEEN 15Z-18Z/MON.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY TOWARD OR AFTER 18Z/MON.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...FROM THE N TO NE AT LESS THAN 8 KT THROUGH
18Z/MON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT
SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KALY 212113
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
413 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT...AND A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT ANY LINGERING SNOW ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FA TO COME TO AN END THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE IF
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS SLIDES EAST OF THE FA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FA WILL BE DRY WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT AND LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS MOISTURE
STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA AND
EVENTUALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA BY MORNING. PARTIAL THICKNESS
VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET MIXING IN. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH
OF A DROP FROM DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...FREEZING RAIN WILL LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH ALL RAIN FROM MID
MORNING TUESDAY ON ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

TUESDAY NIGHT A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. AS THE LOW
APPROACHES IT WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
SUCH THAT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS WET AND MILD TO START FOR CHRISTMAS
EVE...AND THEN BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR CHRISTMAS
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH PERHAPS SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CLOSE THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS HAVE MENTIONED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...A
POTENTIAL MULTI-HAZARD EVENT IS POSSIBLE WED INTO THU WITH A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WELL WEST OF THE REGION FROM THE TN
VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE CANADA.  THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING MILDER WX ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS...AND A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE.  ALSO STRONG S TO SW WINDS
AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING SFC CYCLONE ARE EXPECTED WED
INTO WED PM...AND A BAND OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.  THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS COUPLED WITH 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 24 HRS OR LESS...AND SNOW MELT COULD PRODUCE
SOME MINOR HYDRO ISSUES.  ALSO THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...AND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 970 HPA OR LOWER OVER WRN QUEBEC COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG W/NW WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS.

WED-WED NIGHT...INITIAL BURST OF RAINFALL DURING THE DAY ON WED WILL
BE WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285/290K SFC.  THE WARM FRONT
SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AN ANOMALOUS
SOUTHERLY LLJ JET OF 40-60 KTS AT H850 WILL ADVECT IN ANOMALOUS PWAT
VALUES OF 3 TO 5 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
GEFS.  THE +V-WIND ANOMALIES /SOUTHERLIES/ ARE 2 TO 3 STD DEVS ABOVE
NORMAL.  THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  H850 TEMPS RISE TO +10C TO
+12C IN THE WARM SECTOR.  THE NARROW COLD FRONT RAINBAND LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM BTWN
06Z-12Z/THU...AS THE CYCLONE DEEPENS AND INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES
N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY.  HIGH TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS EVE WILL BE IN THE
MID TO U50S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST /NEARLY 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/...AND M40S TO L50S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  AS
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN WED NIGHT...EXPECT SOME OF THE RAIN TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE SRN DACKS.  PERHAPS AN
INCH OR SO OF WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE.  LOWS CHRISTMAS MORNING WILL BE
IN THE MID TO U30S WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER TO
MID 40S FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EAST.

CHRISTMAS-CHRISTMAS NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER
WRN QUEBEC NEAR JAMES BAY.  SIGNIFICANT MSLP PRESSURE RISES WILL BE
OCCURRING OVER THE FCST AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.  BLUSTERY W/NW WINDS OF 15 TO 30
MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE DEEPER
MIXING AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT.  A WIND HEADLINE
MAY BE NEEDED HERE FOR PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.  SOME WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE WRN DACKS...AND WRN
GREENS.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M30S TO U40S FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA.  THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF CHRISTMAS NIGHT WITH
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS WEST OF THE TRI CITIES.  LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID 20S TO L30S.

FRI-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RIDGES IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE
MID LEVEL FLOW W/SW ALOFT.  A CLIPPER TYPE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SRN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY.  THIS SYSTEM LIFTS
N/NE INTO QUEBEC WITH SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.  SOME ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY GET INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  HIGH WILL BE IN
THE M30S TO M40S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO L30S.  HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COLDER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE L30S TO U30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO L40S
IN THE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...NORTHEAST AND EAST COAST.  THE GFS HAS WEAK
IMPULSES IN THE W/NW CYCLONIC FLOW FOCUSING LAKE EFFECT AND W/NW
UPSLOPE SNOWFALL.  THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
HANGING CLOSE TO THE COAST.  A COASTAL WAVE MOVES ALONG IT SUNDAY
FOR SOME SNOWFALL FOR MOST OF THE REGION.  A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS...SO A LOW CHC OF SNOWFALL WAS USED FOR THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA ON SUNDAY.  TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE FOR LATE DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND A MOIST FLOW ALOFT
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...HAS ALLOWED AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW/SNOW
GRAINS TO OCCUR AT THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT
THIS LIGHT SNOW TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM NW TO
SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BEFORE IT DOES...MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT THROUGH
AROUND 20Z/SUN AT KPOU AND KPSF. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE SLIGHTLY
INTO THE MVFR RANGE AFTER THE SNOW TAPERS OFF.

FOR TONIGHT...A CONTINUED STREAM OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE TAF SITES. THIS MAY ALLOW ADDITIONAL PATCHY VERY
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW GRAINS TO REDEVELOP. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY
THAT SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURS...ESP AT KPSF AND KPOU AFTER
03Z-06Z/MON. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SNOW SHOWERS...BUT
AGAIN...OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO LOW MVFR AND IFR THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR PERSISTENT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT KPSF...AND KPOU.

ON MONDAY...LINGERING PATCHY LIGHT SNOW GRAINS AND/OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH BETWEEN 15Z-18Z/MON.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY TOWARD OR AFTER 18Z/MON.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...FROM THE N TO NE AT LESS THAN 8 KT THROUGH
18Z/MON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT
SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KBTV 212102
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
402 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END WITH CLOUDS LINGERING
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY...BUT A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION
CHANGES TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ON
CHRISTMAS EVE ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 339 PM EST SUNDAY...LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EST SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM WILL TAKE PLACE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING
ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
TAKING PLACE. THIS WILL SET UP A THERMAL PROFILE CONDUCIVE TO
MIXED PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT
NEVERTHELESS SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION
BECOMES ALL RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STEADIER RAIN AND WIND STILL
NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 357 PM EST SUNDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA
OF RAINY AND POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY INTO
THE MORNING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS DAY.

WEDNESDAY MORNING THE PRECIPITATION CHANCE INCREASES QUICKLY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE MIDWEST. A PULSE OF ENERGY
WILL SLIDE UP THE TROUGH AND THEN LIFT OVER THE NORTHEAST BRINGING
CATEGORICAL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THE
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE SHIFTING MORE TOWARDS
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THAT WILL CONTINUE THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE LOW LEVELS WHICH WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A PERSISTENT RAIN EVENT ON WEDNESDAY. THE LONG TERM
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED THE TREND OF WEAKENING THE 850MB JET OVER
THE REGION AND DEVELOP THE SYSTEM AS MORE OF A STRONG OPEN WAVE
INSTEAD OF A CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL STILL PROVIDE FOR CHANCES OF
30-40 MPH GUSTS BUT WITHOUT THE EASTERN COMPONENT THE CHANCES OF
STRONG DOWNSLOPE WIND GUSTS ARE WEAKENING. THE BIGGEST AREA OF
CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND PERHAPS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE
ADIRONDACKS.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM...WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL
AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
AMOUNTS WILL VARY A BIT DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS. HIGHEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG SOUTH FACING
SLOPES OF SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS  OVER
NORTHWEST VERMONT AND FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE COASTAL AREAS OF
NEW ENGLAND WOULD SEE MORE RAINFALL FOR THIS EVENT. FLOODING STILL
CONTINUES TO REMAIN A POTENTIAL ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S...AND LITTLE DROP OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF
RAIN AND MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THE
SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN SMALL STREAMS.
RIGHT NOW RIVER GAUGES ARE SHOWING RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE LOW...SO
WHILE SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DON`T EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING ISSUES.

RAIN CONTINUES EARLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY...THEN SOME DRYING EXPECTED WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS COLDER AIR RETURNS. TEMPS IN
VALLEYS REMAIN MILD THOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH READINGS IN
THE 40S.

DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS
A WEAK CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...WV/IR SATELLITE IS INDICATING THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY SLIDING TO THE NORTH UNDER VERY WEAK FLOW.
MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WHERE
MOST SITES WILL DROP IN VISIBILITY TO LOW MVFR. SIMILAR TO THE
THINKING EARLIER, EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TO LAST
NIGHT WITH LOW MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO SETTLE IN WITH PATCHY FOG.
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MON-00Z TUE...LOW CLOUDS WITH MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-18Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...RJS/DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 212102
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
402 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END WITH CLOUDS LINGERING
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY...BUT A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION
CHANGES TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ON
CHRISTMAS EVE ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 339 PM EST SUNDAY...LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EST SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM WILL TAKE PLACE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING
ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
TAKING PLACE. THIS WILL SET UP A THERMAL PROFILE CONDUCIVE TO
MIXED PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT
NEVERTHELESS SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION
BECOMES ALL RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STEADIER RAIN AND WIND STILL
NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 357 PM EST SUNDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA
OF RAINY AND POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY INTO
THE MORNING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS DAY.

WEDNESDAY MORNING THE PRECIPITATION CHANCE INCREASES QUICKLY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE MIDWEST. A PULSE OF ENERGY
WILL SLIDE UP THE TROUGH AND THEN LIFT OVER THE NORTHEAST BRINGING
CATEGORICAL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THE
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE SHIFTING MORE TOWARDS
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THAT WILL CONTINUE THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE LOW LEVELS WHICH WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A PERSISTENT RAIN EVENT ON WEDNESDAY. THE LONG TERM
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED THE TREND OF WEAKENING THE 850MB JET OVER
THE REGION AND DEVELOP THE SYSTEM AS MORE OF A STRONG OPEN WAVE
INSTEAD OF A CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL STILL PROVIDE FOR CHANCES OF
30-40 MPH GUSTS BUT WITHOUT THE EASTERN COMPONENT THE CHANCES OF
STRONG DOWNSLOPE WIND GUSTS ARE WEAKENING. THE BIGGEST AREA OF
CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND PERHAPS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE
ADIRONDACKS.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM...WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL
AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
AMOUNTS WILL VARY A BIT DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS. HIGHEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG SOUTH FACING
SLOPES OF SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS  OVER
NORTHWEST VERMONT AND FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE COASTAL AREAS OF
NEW ENGLAND WOULD SEE MORE RAINFALL FOR THIS EVENT. FLOODING STILL
CONTINUES TO REMAIN A POTENTIAL ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S...AND LITTLE DROP OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF
RAIN AND MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THE
SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN SMALL STREAMS.
RIGHT NOW RIVER GAUGES ARE SHOWING RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE LOW...SO
WHILE SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DON`T EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING ISSUES.

RAIN CONTINUES EARLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY...THEN SOME DRYING EXPECTED WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS COLDER AIR RETURNS. TEMPS IN
VALLEYS REMAIN MILD THOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH READINGS IN
THE 40S.

DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS
A WEAK CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...WV/IR SATELLITE IS INDICATING THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY SLIDING TO THE NORTH UNDER VERY WEAK FLOW.
MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WHERE
MOST SITES WILL DROP IN VISIBILITY TO LOW MVFR. SIMILAR TO THE
THINKING EARLIER, EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TO LAST
NIGHT WITH LOW MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO SETTLE IN WITH PATCHY FOG.
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MON-00Z TUE...LOW CLOUDS WITH MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-18Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...RJS/DEAL



000
FXUS61 KOKX 212057
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
357 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTHEAST
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.
THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS WHILE MOVING NORTH TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY WITH A COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH DRY SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CHALLENGING FORECAST DUE TO SUBTLE WEAK FEATURES...AND AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AS UPPER SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST...WITH RIDGING EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. SFC TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN ZONES LINGERS INTO TONIGHT...AND GLOBAL MODELS DO OUTPUT
LIGHT QPF THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.

IF PRECIP DOES INDEED OCCUR...THIS MAY BECOME PROBLEMATIC WITH
REGARD TO PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECASTING.

SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.
AS MENTIONED...MOISTURE IS RATHER SHALLOW...AND THERE IS A CONCERN
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
THAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIQUID. IF SO...SCATTERED SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE
COULD FREEZE ON CONTACT WITH THE COLD SURFACE WHERE TEMPS FALL
BELOW THE FREEZING MARK.

OTHERWISE...IF MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW...VERY
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL BE THE RESULT.

HOWEVER...COMPLICATING THINGS IS THAT TEMPS THROUGH 850 HPA OR SO
WARM SLIGHTLY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. SO EVEN IF MOISTURE IS DEEP
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW PRODUCING PROCESSES...ANY PRECIP MAY
CHANGE OVER THE RAIN ANYWAY AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

OTHERWISE...CLOUDS LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THESE LOW
CLOUDS COULD BREAK UP SOMEWHAT AS RIDGE BUILDS.

TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF LATEST MOS AND FORECAST DATABASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AHEAD OF DIGGING MID WEST TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A WARM FRONT OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC...DRIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA.

WEAK LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DO NOT EXPECT REAL HIGH COVERAGE AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 30S MONDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST. THESE TEMPS LIKELY
REMAIN STEADY MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO EAST FLOW AND CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ALL GUIDANCE DOES NOT MAINTAIN A CLOSED
CIRCULATION AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OTHERWISE THERE IS GENERALLY
CONSISTENCY WITH THE MIDWESTERN LOW DEEPENING AND TRACKING NORTHWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FULL LATITUDE UPPER
TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. ONLY CHANGE HAS BEEN A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
COME THROUGH JUST AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...AND CLEAR THE EASTERN ZONES
JUST AFTER 12Z CHRISTMAS DAY. ALSO...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF PROFILES
ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE
EVENT.

WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
STRONG LIFT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. ALSO THERE
WILL BE A DEEP INFLUX OF GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. UP TO 2 INCHES WILL LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION.

IN THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY WINDS AND GUSTS INCREASE
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY. THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO NOW BE DRY.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES LATER SATURDAY AND TRACKS NORTH SUNDAY BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THE STORM WILL BE INLAND AND THE AREA WILL
BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH AN INVERSION WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MON...WITH EVEN SOME LOCATIONS BEING IFR.

POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE/SNOW WILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING
DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF...MAINLY EAST OF THE NYC TERMINALS.

A WEAK NLY FLOW AT LESS THAN 10 KT GRADUALLY VEERS AROUND TO E/NE
BY MON AFT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E FLOW.
RAIN DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT.
.TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY IN RAIN. E WINDS
10-20 KT...BECOMING SE.
.WEDNESDAY...HIGH IMPACT EVENT BECOMING LIKELY. IFR CONDS WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND S/SE WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS. WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.THURSDAY...SUB-VFR CONDS IN THE MORNING IN RAIN SHOWERS. VFR
CONDS BY AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.
.FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT...SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS. A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND DRIFTS NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE WATERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. EAST WINDS INCREASE
SLIGHTLY BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

SEAS REMAIN 4 FT OR LESS OVER THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW INTO TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. WIND AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WIND AND GUSTS WILL
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. THEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE WIND GUSTS ON THE OCEAN INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WIND SHIFTS
TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND BECOMES VERY GUSTY IN THE COLDER AIR.
GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS ALL THE WATERS DURING
THURSDAY AND THEN SUBSIDE TO BELOW GALE FORCE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT DURING FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH DRY SATURDAY...AND WIND AND SEA ARE
LIKELY TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVEL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY
JUST LIGHT AMOUNTS.

RAINFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING COULD TOTAL
1 1/2 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...MET/PW
HYDROLOGY...MET/PW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 212057
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
357 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTHEAST
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.
THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS WHILE MOVING NORTH TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY WITH A COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH DRY SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CHALLENGING FORECAST DUE TO SUBTLE WEAK FEATURES...AND AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AS UPPER SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST...WITH RIDGING EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. SFC TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN ZONES LINGERS INTO TONIGHT...AND GLOBAL MODELS DO OUTPUT
LIGHT QPF THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.

IF PRECIP DOES INDEED OCCUR...THIS MAY BECOME PROBLEMATIC WITH
REGARD TO PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECASTING.

SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.
AS MENTIONED...MOISTURE IS RATHER SHALLOW...AND THERE IS A CONCERN
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
THAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIQUID. IF SO...SCATTERED SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE
COULD FREEZE ON CONTACT WITH THE COLD SURFACE WHERE TEMPS FALL
BELOW THE FREEZING MARK.

OTHERWISE...IF MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW...VERY
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL BE THE RESULT.

HOWEVER...COMPLICATING THINGS IS THAT TEMPS THROUGH 850 HPA OR SO
WARM SLIGHTLY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. SO EVEN IF MOISTURE IS DEEP
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW PRODUCING PROCESSES...ANY PRECIP MAY
CHANGE OVER THE RAIN ANYWAY AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

OTHERWISE...CLOUDS LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THESE LOW
CLOUDS COULD BREAK UP SOMEWHAT AS RIDGE BUILDS.

TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF LATEST MOS AND FORECAST DATABASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AHEAD OF DIGGING MID WEST TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A WARM FRONT OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC...DRIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA.

WEAK LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DO NOT EXPECT REAL HIGH COVERAGE AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 30S MONDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST. THESE TEMPS LIKELY
REMAIN STEADY MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO EAST FLOW AND CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ALL GUIDANCE DOES NOT MAINTAIN A CLOSED
CIRCULATION AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OTHERWISE THERE IS GENERALLY
CONSISTENCY WITH THE MIDWESTERN LOW DEEPENING AND TRACKING NORTHWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FULL LATITUDE UPPER
TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. ONLY CHANGE HAS BEEN A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
COME THROUGH JUST AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...AND CLEAR THE EASTERN ZONES
JUST AFTER 12Z CHRISTMAS DAY. ALSO...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF PROFILES
ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE
EVENT.

WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
STRONG LIFT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. ALSO THERE
WILL BE A DEEP INFLUX OF GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. UP TO 2 INCHES WILL LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION.

IN THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY WINDS AND GUSTS INCREASE
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY. THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO NOW BE DRY.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES LATER SATURDAY AND TRACKS NORTH SUNDAY BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THE STORM WILL BE INLAND AND THE AREA WILL
BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH AN INVERSION WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MON...WITH EVEN SOME LOCATIONS BEING IFR.

POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE/SNOW WILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING
DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF...MAINLY EAST OF THE NYC TERMINALS.

A WEAK NLY FLOW AT LESS THAN 10 KT GRADUALLY VEERS AROUND TO E/NE
BY MON AFT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E FLOW.
RAIN DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT.
.TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY IN RAIN. E WINDS
10-20 KT...BECOMING SE.
.WEDNESDAY...HIGH IMPACT EVENT BECOMING LIKELY. IFR CONDS WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND S/SE WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS. WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.THURSDAY...SUB-VFR CONDS IN THE MORNING IN RAIN SHOWERS. VFR
CONDS BY AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.
.FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT...SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS. A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND DRIFTS NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE WATERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. EAST WINDS INCREASE
SLIGHTLY BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

SEAS REMAIN 4 FT OR LESS OVER THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW INTO TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. WIND AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WIND AND GUSTS WILL
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. THEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE WIND GUSTS ON THE OCEAN INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WIND SHIFTS
TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND BECOMES VERY GUSTY IN THE COLDER AIR.
GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS ALL THE WATERS DURING
THURSDAY AND THEN SUBSIDE TO BELOW GALE FORCE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT DURING FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH DRY SATURDAY...AND WIND AND SEA ARE
LIKELY TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVEL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY
JUST LIGHT AMOUNTS.

RAINFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING COULD TOTAL
1 1/2 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...MET/PW
HYDROLOGY...MET/PW







000
FXUS61 KBTV 212039
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
339 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END WITH CLOUDS LINGERING
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY...BUT A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION
CHANGES TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ON
CHRISTMAS EVE ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 339 PM EST SUNDAY...LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EST SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM WILL TAKE PLACE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING
ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
TAKING PLACE. THIS WILL SET UP A THERMAL PROFILE CONDUCIVE TO
MIXED PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT
NEVERTHELESS SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION
BECOMES ALL RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STEADIER RAIN AND WIND STILL
NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EST SUNDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA
OF RAINY AND POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY INTO
THE MORNING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS DAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS ACROSS CANADIAN MARITIMES AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ALOFT WILL RESULT IN INCREASED
FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN TO BECOME
RATHER WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. COULD BE A FEW POCKETS OF
SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM...BUT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN.

CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE FURTHER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST. STRONG SHORTWAVE
ROUNDS BASE OF THE TROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST.
DEEP AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
850 MB WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD
INDICATED...AND FLOW NOW PROJECTED TO BE MORE SOUTHERLY THAN
SOUTHEAST. STILL LOOKING AT A 40-50 KT 850 MB JET HOWEVER. BUT
WITH LESS OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING WOULD NOT BE
QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT. BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HIGH
WINDS CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PERHAPS ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM...WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL
AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
AMOUNTS WILL VARY A BIT DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS. HIGHEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG SOUTH FACING
SLOPES OF SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
OVER NORTHWEST VERMONT AND FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK. WITH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...AND
LITTLE DROP OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND
MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THE SNOWMELT
COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN SMALL STREAMS. RIGHT NOW
RIVER GAUGES ARE SHOWING RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE LOW...SO WHILE
SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
RIVER FLOODING ISSUES. RAIN CONTINUES EARLY ON CHRISTMAS
DAY...THEN SOME DRYING EXPECTED WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT DURING
THE MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AS COLDER AIR RETURNS. TEMPS IN VALLEYS REMAIN MILD THOUGH
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH READINGS IN THE 40S.

DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS
A CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...WV/IR SATELLITE IS INDICATING THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY SLIDING TO THE NORTH UNDER VERY WEAK FLOW.
MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WHERE
MOST SITES WILL DROP IN VISIBILITY TO LOW MVFR. SIMILAR TO THE
THINKING EARLIER, EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TO LAST
NIGHT WITH LOW MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO SETTLE IN WITH PATCHY FOG.
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MON-00Z TUE...LOW CLOUDS WITH MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-18Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 212039
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
339 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END WITH CLOUDS LINGERING
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY...BUT A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION
CHANGES TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ON
CHRISTMAS EVE ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 339 PM EST SUNDAY...LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EST SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM WILL TAKE PLACE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING
ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
TAKING PLACE. THIS WILL SET UP A THERMAL PROFILE CONDUCIVE TO
MIXED PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT
NEVERTHELESS SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION
BECOMES ALL RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STEADIER RAIN AND WIND STILL
NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EST SUNDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA
OF RAINY AND POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY INTO
THE MORNING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS DAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS ACROSS CANADIAN MARITIMES AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ALOFT WILL RESULT IN INCREASED
FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN TO BECOME
RATHER WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. COULD BE A FEW POCKETS OF
SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM...BUT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN.

CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE FURTHER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST. STRONG SHORTWAVE
ROUNDS BASE OF THE TROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST.
DEEP AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
850 MB WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD
INDICATED...AND FLOW NOW PROJECTED TO BE MORE SOUTHERLY THAN
SOUTHEAST. STILL LOOKING AT A 40-50 KT 850 MB JET HOWEVER. BUT
WITH LESS OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING WOULD NOT BE
QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT. BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HIGH
WINDS CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PERHAPS ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM...WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL
AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
AMOUNTS WILL VARY A BIT DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS. HIGHEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG SOUTH FACING
SLOPES OF SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
OVER NORTHWEST VERMONT AND FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK. WITH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...AND
LITTLE DROP OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND
MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THE SNOWMELT
COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN SMALL STREAMS. RIGHT NOW
RIVER GAUGES ARE SHOWING RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE LOW...SO WHILE
SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
RIVER FLOODING ISSUES. RAIN CONTINUES EARLY ON CHRISTMAS
DAY...THEN SOME DRYING EXPECTED WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT DURING
THE MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AS COLDER AIR RETURNS. TEMPS IN VALLEYS REMAIN MILD THOUGH
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH READINGS IN THE 40S.

DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS
A CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...WV/IR SATELLITE IS INDICATING THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY SLIDING TO THE NORTH UNDER VERY WEAK FLOW.
MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WHERE
MOST SITES WILL DROP IN VISIBILITY TO LOW MVFR. SIMILAR TO THE
THINKING EARLIER, EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TO LAST
NIGHT WITH LOW MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO SETTLE IN WITH PATCHY FOG.
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MON-00Z TUE...LOW CLOUDS WITH MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-18Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/DEAL



000
FXUS61 KBUF 212028
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
328 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY AND PROVIDE ONE
MORE DAY OF DRY WEATHER. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ALONG WITH THE WARMTH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND PRODUCE RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR WET SNOW
SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM CONTINUES TO
REVOLVE AROUND THE EVER PRESENT LOW STRATUS AND ITS EVOLUTION.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING THICK STRATUS
DOMINATING MOST OF THE REGION...WITH SOMEWHAT THINNER STRATOCUMULUS
FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO ROCHESTER. NAM POINT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SHOW ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STEEP
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 3K FEET...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD STRATUS THROUGH TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL
BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT...SO EVEN IN AREAS NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO WHERE A FEW BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THE STRATUS
WILL LIKELY MOVE BACK IN OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE LITTLE DIURNAL
RANGE WITH MOST AREAS STAYING CLOUDY. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 20S IN
MOST AREAS AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

ON MONDAY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE. THE
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TO FINALLY ERODE THE
LOW STRATUS FROM THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE LAKE PLAINS WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. THE STRATUS MAY BE MORE DIFFICULT TO
DISLODGE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER...
FINGER LAKES...AND TUG HILL REGION WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN THE MID LEVELS
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WILL JUST BRING A MODEST INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL CLOUD WITH ANY LIGHT PRECIP REMAINING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BOOST
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES OVER RECENT DAYS...WITH UPPER 30S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND MID 30S ON THE HILLS AND NORTH COUNTRY.
SOME OF THE TYPICALLY WARMER LOCATIONS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY MAY
PUSH 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FOCUS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL BE ON A STORM EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES LATER TUESDAY THEN MERGE WITH
A NORTHERN STREAM LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON CHRISTMAS EVE.
THIS WILL BRING VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE TO AT TIMES
HEAVY RAINFALL ON CHRISTMAS EVE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
POSSIBLY STRONG WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

LEADING UP TO CHRISTMAS EVE THE WEATHER WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO ABOVE AVERAGE AND A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LIE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT INCREASING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WILL BRING OVERCAST SKIES WHILE
WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF A SHOWER ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK.
MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT BECOME FULLY SATURATED UNTIL LATE TUESDAY
WITH MUCH OF THE LIGHT SHOWERS BEFOREHAND DRYING UP BEFORE REACHING
THE GROUND. IT IS WORTH A MENTION THAT ANY PRECIP THAT COULD REACH
THE SURFACE EARLY TUESDAY WHEN TEMPS ARE STILL HOVERING NEAR
FREEZING MAY FALL AS A LIGHT WINTERY MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ESPECIALLY BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS WELL
ABOVE FREEZING SO PLAIN RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE HERE.

THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND +10C. MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THEN TEMPS PUSH WELL INTO THE 40S WITH AROUND 50 ALONG
THE LAKESHORES ON TUESDAY WITH A DOWNSLOPE SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE
ERIE SHORELINE.

ON CHRISTMAS EVE A PLUME OF MOISTURE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WILL SHIFT
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SURFACE LOW AS IT MERGES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. NAEFS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE OVER ONE INCH WHICH IS
NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN A 30 YEAR PWAT CLIMO. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S CHRISTMAS EVE SHOULD YIELD
SOME MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS MAY
ALSO HELP TO DRAG DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A 50 KNOT
850MB JET STREAKING OVERHEAD. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS AND
INCREASING WINDS...DOWNSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST SURFACE
TEMPS INTO THE 50S WITH A RUN AT 60 DEGREES FOR BUFFALO AND
ROCHESTER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THESE NUMBERS ARE 20+ DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL LATE DECEMBER HIGHS.

A SHARP COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW IS FAVORABLE
FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH THE FALLING
PRESSURES WITHIN THE LOW ALSO REQUIRED FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT. WINDS
OF 50-60 KNOTS WILL BE FOUND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WITH COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT HELPING TO MIX THESE STRONG WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. CIPS ANALOGS FOR THIS EVENT AND THE SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
LEAN TOWARD MAINLY A WESTERN NEW YORK EVENT POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS WELL INLAND
FROM THE LAKES. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 60 MPH EAST OF LAKE ERIE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY EVENTUALLY BRING THE NEED FOR A HIGH WIND
WATCH IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES SHIFTING ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW
YORK WHICH WILL ENSURE A GUSTY CHRISTMAS DAY. WINDS GUSTS INTO THE
40S SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST WIND ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY.

COLD AIR WILL ALSO WORK ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO MENTION THAT WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES THE SOURCE REGION OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC
BASED AND NOT ARCTIC BASED SO THIS LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL
BRING A REDUCED THREAT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY. 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK TO ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN -5C AND
-8C. THIS SHOULD ONLY ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL INTO THE
MID 30S WITH LOW 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LATEST FORECAST
CONTINUES TO REFLECT A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SOME LIMITED WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME WEAK
LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LINGERING POST FRONTAL
MOISTURE AND LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 5KFT
DURING THE DAY.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER BACK INTO THE MID 40S
AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAKER GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH LOOKS TO
BRING A SHOT OF WESTERN CANADIAN SOURCED AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR SATURDAY
THEN PLAIN SNOW SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPS BACK TO AROUND
FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. THE THICKEST STRATUS THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH MVFR CIGS DOMINANT. SOME OF THE HIGHEST
HILLS WILL STILL SEE LOCAL IFR CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.

TONIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WEAK SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW STRATUS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS IN MOST
AREAS. LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
INCREASE. THE DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP TO ERODE THE
STRATUS DECK ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT AND
CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. STRATUS MAY LOCK IN LONGER ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND TUG HILL
REGION WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE DRIFTING
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY TUESDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE SOME ON MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THEN CROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
THURSDAY. THIS IS A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TRACK FOR STRONG WINDS
ON THE LOWER LAKES...WITH A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON
BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK





000
FXUS61 KBUF 212028
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
328 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY AND PROVIDE ONE
MORE DAY OF DRY WEATHER. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ALONG WITH THE WARMTH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND PRODUCE RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR WET SNOW
SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM CONTINUES TO
REVOLVE AROUND THE EVER PRESENT LOW STRATUS AND ITS EVOLUTION.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING THICK STRATUS
DOMINATING MOST OF THE REGION...WITH SOMEWHAT THINNER STRATOCUMULUS
FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO ROCHESTER. NAM POINT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SHOW ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STEEP
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 3K FEET...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD STRATUS THROUGH TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL
BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT...SO EVEN IN AREAS NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO WHERE A FEW BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THE STRATUS
WILL LIKELY MOVE BACK IN OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE LITTLE DIURNAL
RANGE WITH MOST AREAS STAYING CLOUDY. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 20S IN
MOST AREAS AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

ON MONDAY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE. THE
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TO FINALLY ERODE THE
LOW STRATUS FROM THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE LAKE PLAINS WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. THE STRATUS MAY BE MORE DIFFICULT TO
DISLODGE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER...
FINGER LAKES...AND TUG HILL REGION WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN THE MID LEVELS
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WILL JUST BRING A MODEST INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL CLOUD WITH ANY LIGHT PRECIP REMAINING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BOOST
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES OVER RECENT DAYS...WITH UPPER 30S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND MID 30S ON THE HILLS AND NORTH COUNTRY.
SOME OF THE TYPICALLY WARMER LOCATIONS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY MAY
PUSH 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FOCUS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL BE ON A STORM EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES LATER TUESDAY THEN MERGE WITH
A NORTHERN STREAM LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON CHRISTMAS EVE.
THIS WILL BRING VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE TO AT TIMES
HEAVY RAINFALL ON CHRISTMAS EVE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
POSSIBLY STRONG WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

LEADING UP TO CHRISTMAS EVE THE WEATHER WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO ABOVE AVERAGE AND A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LIE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT INCREASING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WILL BRING OVERCAST SKIES WHILE
WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF A SHOWER ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK.
MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT BECOME FULLY SATURATED UNTIL LATE TUESDAY
WITH MUCH OF THE LIGHT SHOWERS BEFOREHAND DRYING UP BEFORE REACHING
THE GROUND. IT IS WORTH A MENTION THAT ANY PRECIP THAT COULD REACH
THE SURFACE EARLY TUESDAY WHEN TEMPS ARE STILL HOVERING NEAR
FREEZING MAY FALL AS A LIGHT WINTERY MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ESPECIALLY BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS WELL
ABOVE FREEZING SO PLAIN RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE HERE.

THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND +10C. MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THEN TEMPS PUSH WELL INTO THE 40S WITH AROUND 50 ALONG
THE LAKESHORES ON TUESDAY WITH A DOWNSLOPE SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE
ERIE SHORELINE.

ON CHRISTMAS EVE A PLUME OF MOISTURE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WILL SHIFT
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SURFACE LOW AS IT MERGES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. NAEFS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE OVER ONE INCH WHICH IS
NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN A 30 YEAR PWAT CLIMO. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S CHRISTMAS EVE SHOULD YIELD
SOME MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS MAY
ALSO HELP TO DRAG DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A 50 KNOT
850MB JET STREAKING OVERHEAD. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS AND
INCREASING WINDS...DOWNSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST SURFACE
TEMPS INTO THE 50S WITH A RUN AT 60 DEGREES FOR BUFFALO AND
ROCHESTER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THESE NUMBERS ARE 20+ DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL LATE DECEMBER HIGHS.

A SHARP COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW IS FAVORABLE
FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH THE FALLING
PRESSURES WITHIN THE LOW ALSO REQUIRED FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT. WINDS
OF 50-60 KNOTS WILL BE FOUND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WITH COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT HELPING TO MIX THESE STRONG WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. CIPS ANALOGS FOR THIS EVENT AND THE SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
LEAN TOWARD MAINLY A WESTERN NEW YORK EVENT POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS WELL INLAND
FROM THE LAKES. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 60 MPH EAST OF LAKE ERIE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY EVENTUALLY BRING THE NEED FOR A HIGH WIND
WATCH IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES SHIFTING ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW
YORK WHICH WILL ENSURE A GUSTY CHRISTMAS DAY. WINDS GUSTS INTO THE
40S SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST WIND ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY.

COLD AIR WILL ALSO WORK ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO MENTION THAT WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES THE SOURCE REGION OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC
BASED AND NOT ARCTIC BASED SO THIS LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL
BRING A REDUCED THREAT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY. 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK TO ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN -5C AND
-8C. THIS SHOULD ONLY ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL INTO THE
MID 30S WITH LOW 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LATEST FORECAST
CONTINUES TO REFLECT A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SOME LIMITED WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME WEAK
LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LINGERING POST FRONTAL
MOISTURE AND LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 5KFT
DURING THE DAY.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER BACK INTO THE MID 40S
AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAKER GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH LOOKS TO
BRING A SHOT OF WESTERN CANADIAN SOURCED AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR SATURDAY
THEN PLAIN SNOW SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPS BACK TO AROUND
FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. THE THICKEST STRATUS THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH MVFR CIGS DOMINANT. SOME OF THE HIGHEST
HILLS WILL STILL SEE LOCAL IFR CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.

TONIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WEAK SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW STRATUS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS IN MOST
AREAS. LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
INCREASE. THE DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP TO ERODE THE
STRATUS DECK ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT AND
CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. STRATUS MAY LOCK IN LONGER ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND TUG HILL
REGION WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE DRIFTING
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY TUESDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE SOME ON MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THEN CROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
THURSDAY. THIS IS A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TRACK FOR STRONG WINDS
ON THE LOWER LAKES...WITH A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON
BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK






000
FXUS61 KBGM 211957
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
257 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY AS
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE. A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN MIDWEST IN
COMBINATION WITH A LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY RAIN INTO
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO ONE CAN SAY THE BGM/S REPUTATION FOR CLDS IS UNDESERVED AFT
THIS STRETCH OF OVC WX. AREA OF CLRG OVER THE NRN FINGER LAKES AND
ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN QUICKLY FILLED IN AS HTG BUBBLED UP ADTNL
MOISTURE INTO A NEW SC DECK. WHILE SOME OF THE MODELS INSIST THAT
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO CLR THE AREA THIS EVE INTO MON...
STUBBORNLY STRNG INV REMAINS IN PLACE...AND WITH LGT WINDS AND NO
MIXING...SEE LTL TO BRK UP THE CLDS IN PLACE. ALSO...SAT IMAGES
SHOW A SOLID DECK ALL THE WAY BACK INTO EERN OH THIS AFT. WHEN
WINDS FNLY DO DVLP MON MRNG...THEY/RE FROM THE SE PTNLY ADDING
MOISTURE TO THE SNDG. SO...HAVE GONE AGAINST MODEL GUID AND GONE
WITH EXPERIENCE AND CONSISTENCY AND CONTD THE CLDS THRU THE NEAR
TERM.

TEMPS ENDED UP STAYING BLO GUID FCST TODAY AS THE STUBBORN CLDS
DID NOT ALLOW ANY HTG AS ANTICIPATED BY MOS. XPCT LTL DIURNAL CHG
OVRNGT WITH THE CLDS. FOR MON...SOME WEAK WAA DOES OCCUR WITH THE
SELY FLOW SO HAVE GONE NEARER GUID FCST. SOME LGT PCPN MAY DVLP
OVER THE SERN ZONES ON MON AS A WEAK WV PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH.
TEMPS MRGNL SO HAVE GONE WITH MIXED PCPN WHICH BLENDED WELL WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
A LARGE STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT NY AND PA STARTING LATE
MONDAY NIGHT/TUES MORNING AND MAY LINGER THROUGH LATE THURS
NIGHT...

MANY UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST WITH THIS STORM. BUT...
SYNOPTICALLY... GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE
UPPR LOW. GUIDANCE ALSO SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD IDEA OF THE OVERALL
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC LOW AND IT MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

LATE MONDAY NIGHT THE POTENT UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD
ALONG AND SLIGHTLY E OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND GENERATE
CYCLOGENESIS OVR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF KS AND NE. THIS SFC LOW
WILL THEN TRACK NE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. BY TUES
MORNING A STRONG VORT MAXIMA WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPR
TROUGH OVR FAR S TX GENERATING A SECONDARY SFC LOW/SFC TROUGH OVR
E LA. AS THIS OCCURS... THE MAIN SFC LOW OVER THE NORTH WILL BECOME
OCCLUDED.

THE UPPR TROUGH WILL START TO SHIFT EAST TUES NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST THE SECONDARY SFC LOW/TROUGH WILL MERGE WITH THE
PRIMARY SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARDS OUR CWA AND
BRING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING LATE MONDAY NIGHT
LASTING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AS THIS SYSTEM STARTS TO GENERATE PRECIP... EXPECT THE PRECIP TO
START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX AND MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. THIS IS DUE TO WAA AND ISENTROPHIC LIFT AHEAD THE
OCCLUDED FRONT. PRECIP WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE N AND WEST. A STRONG
LLJ WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CWA LATE TUES MORNING/AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN STRONG WAA AND GUSTY WINDS OVR THE REGION. BY TUES
AFTERNOON THE WAA WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AND ALL PRECIP WILL
FALL AS RAIN. RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH
WED NIGHT. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS PWAT
VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE COLDER ATTENDANT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL START TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION THURS MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY GUSTY BEHIND
THE FROPA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE VERY COLD AIR WITH IT DUE IT
WHERE IT ORIGINATED. IT IS A PACIFIC AIRMASS NOT AN ARCTIC.
THUS... TEMPS WILL NOT DROP DRAMATICALLY POST FRONTAL.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED ATTM TO BE HEAVY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FNT SWINGS THRU FRI NGT AND RETURNS THE AREA TO MORE TYPICAL
EARLY WINTER WX. CONTD CAA WILL GRADUALLY LWR TEMPS THRU THE PD
INCRSG THE CHANCE OF LE SNOW SHWRS. SHEARED FLOW ININTIALLY BHD
THE FNT WILL LIMIT THE AMT OF LE...WHILE THE DEEPER COLD AIR AITS
TO JUST BEYOND THE PD LATE SUN AND EARLY MON.

TEMPS WILL AVG NEAR NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LTL CHG IN THE OUTLOOK THRU THE TAF PD AS THE LL MOISTURE CONTS TO
BE TRAPPED BENEATH THE PERSISTENT INV. SOME CLRG THAT WAS WELL
FCST BY THE NAM IS NOW FILLING WITH CLDS AS ANY HTG QUICKLY DVLPS
FRESH SC. FCSTD SNDGS SHOW SOME EROSION OF THE MOISTURE OVER THE
NEXT 18 HRS BUT WITH LONG NGT AND LGT WINDS...VERY LTL TO MIX OUT
THE REMAINING MOISTURE. ALSO...SAT IMAGES SHOW A THICK DECK ALL
THE WAY BACK INTO OH.

OUTLOOK...

MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO THURS...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-THURS.

FRI...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM










000
FXUS61 KBGM 211957
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
257 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY AS
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE. A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN MIDWEST IN
COMBINATION WITH A LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY RAIN INTO
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO ONE CAN SAY THE BGM/S REPUTATION FOR CLDS IS UNDESERVED AFT
THIS STRETCH OF OVC WX. AREA OF CLRG OVER THE NRN FINGER LAKES AND
ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN QUICKLY FILLED IN AS HTG BUBBLED UP ADTNL
MOISTURE INTO A NEW SC DECK. WHILE SOME OF THE MODELS INSIST THAT
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO CLR THE AREA THIS EVE INTO MON...
STUBBORNLY STRNG INV REMAINS IN PLACE...AND WITH LGT WINDS AND NO
MIXING...SEE LTL TO BRK UP THE CLDS IN PLACE. ALSO...SAT IMAGES
SHOW A SOLID DECK ALL THE WAY BACK INTO EERN OH THIS AFT. WHEN
WINDS FNLY DO DVLP MON MRNG...THEY/RE FROM THE SE PTNLY ADDING
MOISTURE TO THE SNDG. SO...HAVE GONE AGAINST MODEL GUID AND GONE
WITH EXPERIENCE AND CONSISTENCY AND CONTD THE CLDS THRU THE NEAR
TERM.

TEMPS ENDED UP STAYING BLO GUID FCST TODAY AS THE STUBBORN CLDS
DID NOT ALLOW ANY HTG AS ANTICIPATED BY MOS. XPCT LTL DIURNAL CHG
OVRNGT WITH THE CLDS. FOR MON...SOME WEAK WAA DOES OCCUR WITH THE
SELY FLOW SO HAVE GONE NEARER GUID FCST. SOME LGT PCPN MAY DVLP
OVER THE SERN ZONES ON MON AS A WEAK WV PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH.
TEMPS MRGNL SO HAVE GONE WITH MIXED PCPN WHICH BLENDED WELL WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
A LARGE STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT NY AND PA STARTING LATE
MONDAY NIGHT/TUES MORNING AND MAY LINGER THROUGH LATE THURS
NIGHT...

MANY UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST WITH THIS STORM. BUT...
SYNOPTICALLY... GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE
UPPR LOW. GUIDANCE ALSO SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD IDEA OF THE OVERALL
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC LOW AND IT MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

LATE MONDAY NIGHT THE POTENT UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD
ALONG AND SLIGHTLY E OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND GENERATE
CYCLOGENESIS OVR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF KS AND NE. THIS SFC LOW
WILL THEN TRACK NE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. BY TUES
MORNING A STRONG VORT MAXIMA WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPR
TROUGH OVR FAR S TX GENERATING A SECONDARY SFC LOW/SFC TROUGH OVR
E LA. AS THIS OCCURS... THE MAIN SFC LOW OVER THE NORTH WILL BECOME
OCCLUDED.

THE UPPR TROUGH WILL START TO SHIFT EAST TUES NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST THE SECONDARY SFC LOW/TROUGH WILL MERGE WITH THE
PRIMARY SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARDS OUR CWA AND
BRING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING LATE MONDAY NIGHT
LASTING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AS THIS SYSTEM STARTS TO GENERATE PRECIP... EXPECT THE PRECIP TO
START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX AND MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. THIS IS DUE TO WAA AND ISENTROPHIC LIFT AHEAD THE
OCCLUDED FRONT. PRECIP WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE N AND WEST. A STRONG
LLJ WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CWA LATE TUES MORNING/AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN STRONG WAA AND GUSTY WINDS OVR THE REGION. BY TUES
AFTERNOON THE WAA WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AND ALL PRECIP WILL
FALL AS RAIN. RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH
WED NIGHT. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS PWAT
VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE COLDER ATTENDANT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL START TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION THURS MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY GUSTY BEHIND
THE FROPA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE VERY COLD AIR WITH IT DUE IT
WHERE IT ORIGINATED. IT IS A PACIFIC AIRMASS NOT AN ARCTIC.
THUS... TEMPS WILL NOT DROP DRAMATICALLY POST FRONTAL.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED ATTM TO BE HEAVY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FNT SWINGS THRU FRI NGT AND RETURNS THE AREA TO MORE TYPICAL
EARLY WINTER WX. CONTD CAA WILL GRADUALLY LWR TEMPS THRU THE PD
INCRSG THE CHANCE OF LE SNOW SHWRS. SHEARED FLOW ININTIALLY BHD
THE FNT WILL LIMIT THE AMT OF LE...WHILE THE DEEPER COLD AIR AITS
TO JUST BEYOND THE PD LATE SUN AND EARLY MON.

TEMPS WILL AVG NEAR NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LTL CHG IN THE OUTLOOK THRU THE TAF PD AS THE LL MOISTURE CONTS TO
BE TRAPPED BENEATH THE PERSISTENT INV. SOME CLRG THAT WAS WELL
FCST BY THE NAM IS NOW FILLING WITH CLDS AS ANY HTG QUICKLY DVLPS
FRESH SC. FCSTD SNDGS SHOW SOME EROSION OF THE MOISTURE OVER THE
NEXT 18 HRS BUT WITH LONG NGT AND LGT WINDS...VERY LTL TO MIX OUT
THE REMAINING MOISTURE. ALSO...SAT IMAGES SHOW A THICK DECK ALL
THE WAY BACK INTO OH.

OUTLOOK...

MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO THURS...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-THURS.

FRI...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM










000
FXUS61 KBGM 211957
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
257 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY AS
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE. A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN MIDWEST IN
COMBINATION WITH A LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY RAIN INTO
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO ONE CAN SAY THE BGM/S REPUTATION FOR CLDS IS UNDESERVED AFT
THIS STRETCH OF OVC WX. AREA OF CLRG OVER THE NRN FINGER LAKES AND
ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN QUICKLY FILLED IN AS HTG BUBBLED UP ADTNL
MOISTURE INTO A NEW SC DECK. WHILE SOME OF THE MODELS INSIST THAT
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO CLR THE AREA THIS EVE INTO MON...
STUBBORNLY STRNG INV REMAINS IN PLACE...AND WITH LGT WINDS AND NO
MIXING...SEE LTL TO BRK UP THE CLDS IN PLACE. ALSO...SAT IMAGES
SHOW A SOLID DECK ALL THE WAY BACK INTO EERN OH THIS AFT. WHEN
WINDS FNLY DO DVLP MON MRNG...THEY/RE FROM THE SE PTNLY ADDING
MOISTURE TO THE SNDG. SO...HAVE GONE AGAINST MODEL GUID AND GONE
WITH EXPERIENCE AND CONSISTENCY AND CONTD THE CLDS THRU THE NEAR
TERM.

TEMPS ENDED UP STAYING BLO GUID FCST TODAY AS THE STUBBORN CLDS
DID NOT ALLOW ANY HTG AS ANTICIPATED BY MOS. XPCT LTL DIURNAL CHG
OVRNGT WITH THE CLDS. FOR MON...SOME WEAK WAA DOES OCCUR WITH THE
SELY FLOW SO HAVE GONE NEARER GUID FCST. SOME LGT PCPN MAY DVLP
OVER THE SERN ZONES ON MON AS A WEAK WV PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH.
TEMPS MRGNL SO HAVE GONE WITH MIXED PCPN WHICH BLENDED WELL WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
A LARGE STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT NY AND PA STARTING LATE
MONDAY NIGHT/TUES MORNING AND MAY LINGER THROUGH LATE THURS
NIGHT...

MANY UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST WITH THIS STORM. BUT...
SYNOPTICALLY... GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE
UPPR LOW. GUIDANCE ALSO SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD IDEA OF THE OVERALL
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC LOW AND IT MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

LATE MONDAY NIGHT THE POTENT UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD
ALONG AND SLIGHTLY E OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND GENERATE
CYCLOGENESIS OVR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF KS AND NE. THIS SFC LOW
WILL THEN TRACK NE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. BY TUES
MORNING A STRONG VORT MAXIMA WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPR
TROUGH OVR FAR S TX GENERATING A SECONDARY SFC LOW/SFC TROUGH OVR
E LA. AS THIS OCCURS... THE MAIN SFC LOW OVER THE NORTH WILL BECOME
OCCLUDED.

THE UPPR TROUGH WILL START TO SHIFT EAST TUES NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST THE SECONDARY SFC LOW/TROUGH WILL MERGE WITH THE
PRIMARY SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARDS OUR CWA AND
BRING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING LATE MONDAY NIGHT
LASTING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AS THIS SYSTEM STARTS TO GENERATE PRECIP... EXPECT THE PRECIP TO
START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX AND MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. THIS IS DUE TO WAA AND ISENTROPHIC LIFT AHEAD THE
OCCLUDED FRONT. PRECIP WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE N AND WEST. A STRONG
LLJ WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CWA LATE TUES MORNING/AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN STRONG WAA AND GUSTY WINDS OVR THE REGION. BY TUES
AFTERNOON THE WAA WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AND ALL PRECIP WILL
FALL AS RAIN. RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH
WED NIGHT. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS PWAT
VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE COLDER ATTENDANT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL START TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION THURS MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY GUSTY BEHIND
THE FROPA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE VERY COLD AIR WITH IT DUE IT
WHERE IT ORIGINATED. IT IS A PACIFIC AIRMASS NOT AN ARCTIC.
THUS... TEMPS WILL NOT DROP DRAMATICALLY POST FRONTAL.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED ATTM TO BE HEAVY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FNT SWINGS THRU FRI NGT AND RETURNS THE AREA TO MORE TYPICAL
EARLY WINTER WX. CONTD CAA WILL GRADUALLY LWR TEMPS THRU THE PD
INCRSG THE CHANCE OF LE SNOW SHWRS. SHEARED FLOW ININTIALLY BHD
THE FNT WILL LIMIT THE AMT OF LE...WHILE THE DEEPER COLD AIR AITS
TO JUST BEYOND THE PD LATE SUN AND EARLY MON.

TEMPS WILL AVG NEAR NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LTL CHG IN THE OUTLOOK THRU THE TAF PD AS THE LL MOISTURE CONTS TO
BE TRAPPED BENEATH THE PERSISTENT INV. SOME CLRG THAT WAS WELL
FCST BY THE NAM IS NOW FILLING WITH CLDS AS ANY HTG QUICKLY DVLPS
FRESH SC. FCSTD SNDGS SHOW SOME EROSION OF THE MOISTURE OVER THE
NEXT 18 HRS BUT WITH LONG NGT AND LGT WINDS...VERY LTL TO MIX OUT
THE REMAINING MOISTURE. ALSO...SAT IMAGES SHOW A THICK DECK ALL
THE WAY BACK INTO OH.

OUTLOOK...

MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO THURS...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-THURS.

FRI...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM










000
FXUS61 KBGM 211957
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
257 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY AS
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE. A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN MIDWEST IN
COMBINATION WITH A LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY RAIN INTO
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO ONE CAN SAY THE BGM/S REPUTATION FOR CLDS IS UNDESERVED AFT
THIS STRETCH OF OVC WX. AREA OF CLRG OVER THE NRN FINGER LAKES AND
ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN QUICKLY FILLED IN AS HTG BUBBLED UP ADTNL
MOISTURE INTO A NEW SC DECK. WHILE SOME OF THE MODELS INSIST THAT
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO CLR THE AREA THIS EVE INTO MON...
STUBBORNLY STRNG INV REMAINS IN PLACE...AND WITH LGT WINDS AND NO
MIXING...SEE LTL TO BRK UP THE CLDS IN PLACE. ALSO...SAT IMAGES
SHOW A SOLID DECK ALL THE WAY BACK INTO EERN OH THIS AFT. WHEN
WINDS FNLY DO DVLP MON MRNG...THEY/RE FROM THE SE PTNLY ADDING
MOISTURE TO THE SNDG. SO...HAVE GONE AGAINST MODEL GUID AND GONE
WITH EXPERIENCE AND CONSISTENCY AND CONTD THE CLDS THRU THE NEAR
TERM.

TEMPS ENDED UP STAYING BLO GUID FCST TODAY AS THE STUBBORN CLDS
DID NOT ALLOW ANY HTG AS ANTICIPATED BY MOS. XPCT LTL DIURNAL CHG
OVRNGT WITH THE CLDS. FOR MON...SOME WEAK WAA DOES OCCUR WITH THE
SELY FLOW SO HAVE GONE NEARER GUID FCST. SOME LGT PCPN MAY DVLP
OVER THE SERN ZONES ON MON AS A WEAK WV PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH.
TEMPS MRGNL SO HAVE GONE WITH MIXED PCPN WHICH BLENDED WELL WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
A LARGE STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT NY AND PA STARTING LATE
MONDAY NIGHT/TUES MORNING AND MAY LINGER THROUGH LATE THURS
NIGHT...

MANY UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST WITH THIS STORM. BUT...
SYNOPTICALLY... GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE
UPPR LOW. GUIDANCE ALSO SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD IDEA OF THE OVERALL
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC LOW AND IT MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

LATE MONDAY NIGHT THE POTENT UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD
ALONG AND SLIGHTLY E OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND GENERATE
CYCLOGENESIS OVR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF KS AND NE. THIS SFC LOW
WILL THEN TRACK NE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. BY TUES
MORNING A STRONG VORT MAXIMA WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPR
TROUGH OVR FAR S TX GENERATING A SECONDARY SFC LOW/SFC TROUGH OVR
E LA. AS THIS OCCURS... THE MAIN SFC LOW OVER THE NORTH WILL BECOME
OCCLUDED.

THE UPPR TROUGH WILL START TO SHIFT EAST TUES NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST THE SECONDARY SFC LOW/TROUGH WILL MERGE WITH THE
PRIMARY SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARDS OUR CWA AND
BRING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING LATE MONDAY NIGHT
LASTING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AS THIS SYSTEM STARTS TO GENERATE PRECIP... EXPECT THE PRECIP TO
START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX AND MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. THIS IS DUE TO WAA AND ISENTROPHIC LIFT AHEAD THE
OCCLUDED FRONT. PRECIP WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE N AND WEST. A STRONG
LLJ WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CWA LATE TUES MORNING/AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN STRONG WAA AND GUSTY WINDS OVR THE REGION. BY TUES
AFTERNOON THE WAA WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AND ALL PRECIP WILL
FALL AS RAIN. RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH
WED NIGHT. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS PWAT
VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE COLDER ATTENDANT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL START TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION THURS MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY GUSTY BEHIND
THE FROPA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE VERY COLD AIR WITH IT DUE IT
WHERE IT ORIGINATED. IT IS A PACIFIC AIRMASS NOT AN ARCTIC.
THUS... TEMPS WILL NOT DROP DRAMATICALLY POST FRONTAL.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED ATTM TO BE HEAVY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FNT SWINGS THRU FRI NGT AND RETURNS THE AREA TO MORE TYPICAL
EARLY WINTER WX. CONTD CAA WILL GRADUALLY LWR TEMPS THRU THE PD
INCRSG THE CHANCE OF LE SNOW SHWRS. SHEARED FLOW ININTIALLY BHD
THE FNT WILL LIMIT THE AMT OF LE...WHILE THE DEEPER COLD AIR AITS
TO JUST BEYOND THE PD LATE SUN AND EARLY MON.

TEMPS WILL AVG NEAR NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LTL CHG IN THE OUTLOOK THRU THE TAF PD AS THE LL MOISTURE CONTS TO
BE TRAPPED BENEATH THE PERSISTENT INV. SOME CLRG THAT WAS WELL
FCST BY THE NAM IS NOW FILLING WITH CLDS AS ANY HTG QUICKLY DVLPS
FRESH SC. FCSTD SNDGS SHOW SOME EROSION OF THE MOISTURE OVER THE
NEXT 18 HRS BUT WITH LONG NGT AND LGT WINDS...VERY LTL TO MIX OUT
THE REMAINING MOISTURE. ALSO...SAT IMAGES SHOW A THICK DECK ALL
THE WAY BACK INTO OH.

OUTLOOK...

MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO THURS...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-THURS.

FRI...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM










000
FXUS61 KBGM 211957
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
257 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY AS
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE. A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN MIDWEST IN
COMBINATION WITH A LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY RAIN INTO
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO ONE CAN SAY THE BGM/S REPUTATION FOR CLDS IS UNDESERVED AFT
THIS STRETCH OF OVC WX. AREA OF CLRG OVER THE NRN FINGER LAKES AND
ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN QUICKLY FILLED IN AS HTG BUBBLED UP ADTNL
MOISTURE INTO A NEW SC DECK. WHILE SOME OF THE MODELS INSIST THAT
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO CLR THE AREA THIS EVE INTO MON...
STUBBORNLY STRNG INV REMAINS IN PLACE...AND WITH LGT WINDS AND NO
MIXING...SEE LTL TO BRK UP THE CLDS IN PLACE. ALSO...SAT IMAGES
SHOW A SOLID DECK ALL THE WAY BACK INTO EERN OH THIS AFT. WHEN
WINDS FNLY DO DVLP MON MRNG...THEY/RE FROM THE SE PTNLY ADDING
MOISTURE TO THE SNDG. SO...HAVE GONE AGAINST MODEL GUID AND GONE
WITH EXPERIENCE AND CONSISTENCY AND CONTD THE CLDS THRU THE NEAR
TERM.

TEMPS ENDED UP STAYING BLO GUID FCST TODAY AS THE STUBBORN CLDS
DID NOT ALLOW ANY HTG AS ANTICIPATED BY MOS. XPCT LTL DIURNAL CHG
OVRNGT WITH THE CLDS. FOR MON...SOME WEAK WAA DOES OCCUR WITH THE
SELY FLOW SO HAVE GONE NEARER GUID FCST. SOME LGT PCPN MAY DVLP
OVER THE SERN ZONES ON MON AS A WEAK WV PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH.
TEMPS MRGNL SO HAVE GONE WITH MIXED PCPN WHICH BLENDED WELL WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
A LARGE STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT NY AND PA STARTING LATE
MONDAY NIGHT/TUES MORNING AND MAY LINGER THROUGH LATE THURS
NIGHT...

MANY UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST WITH THIS STORM. BUT...
SYNOPTICALLY... GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE
UPPR LOW. GUIDANCE ALSO SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD IDEA OF THE OVERALL
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC LOW AND IT MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

LATE MONDAY NIGHT THE POTENT UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD
ALONG AND SLIGHTLY E OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND GENERATE
CYCLOGENESIS OVR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF KS AND NE. THIS SFC LOW
WILL THEN TRACK NE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. BY TUES
MORNING A STRONG VORT MAXIMA WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPR
TROUGH OVR FAR S TX GENERATING A SECONDARY SFC LOW/SFC TROUGH OVR
E LA. AS THIS OCCURS... THE MAIN SFC LOW OVER THE NORTH WILL BECOME
OCCLUDED.

THE UPPR TROUGH WILL START TO SHIFT EAST TUES NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST THE SECONDARY SFC LOW/TROUGH WILL MERGE WITH THE
PRIMARY SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARDS OUR CWA AND
BRING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING LATE MONDAY NIGHT
LASTING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AS THIS SYSTEM STARTS TO GENERATE PRECIP... EXPECT THE PRECIP TO
START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX AND MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. THIS IS DUE TO WAA AND ISENTROPHIC LIFT AHEAD THE
OCCLUDED FRONT. PRECIP WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE N AND WEST. A STRONG
LLJ WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CWA LATE TUES MORNING/AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN STRONG WAA AND GUSTY WINDS OVR THE REGION. BY TUES
AFTERNOON THE WAA WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AND ALL PRECIP WILL
FALL AS RAIN. RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH
WED NIGHT. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS PWAT
VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE COLDER ATTENDANT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL START TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION THURS MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY GUSTY BEHIND
THE FROPA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE VERY COLD AIR WITH IT DUE IT
WHERE IT ORIGINATED. IT IS A PACIFIC AIRMASS NOT AN ARCTIC.
THUS... TEMPS WILL NOT DROP DRAMATICALLY POST FRONTAL.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED ATTM TO BE HEAVY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FNT SWINGS THRU FRI NGT AND RETURNS THE AREA TO MORE TYPICAL
EARLY WINTER WX. CONTD CAA WILL GRADUALLY LWR TEMPS THRU THE PD
INCRSG THE CHANCE OF LE SNOW SHWRS. SHEARED FLOW ININTIALLY BHD
THE FNT WILL LIMIT THE AMT OF LE...WHILE THE DEEPER COLD AIR AITS
TO JUST BEYOND THE PD LATE SUN AND EARLY MON.

TEMPS WILL AVG NEAR NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LTL CHG IN THE OUTLOOK THRU THE TAF PD AS THE LL MOISTURE CONTS TO
BE TRAPPED BENEATH THE PERSISTENT INV. SOME CLRG THAT WAS WELL
FCST BY THE NAM IS NOW FILLING WITH CLDS AS ANY HTG QUICKLY DVLPS
FRESH SC. FCSTD SNDGS SHOW SOME EROSION OF THE MOISTURE OVER THE
NEXT 18 HRS BUT WITH LONG NGT AND LGT WINDS...VERY LTL TO MIX OUT
THE REMAINING MOISTURE. ALSO...SAT IMAGES SHOW A THICK DECK ALL
THE WAY BACK INTO OH.

OUTLOOK...

MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO THURS...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-THURS.

FRI...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM









000
FXUS61 KBGM 211957
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
257 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY AS
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE. A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN MIDWEST IN
COMBINATION WITH A LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY RAIN INTO
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO ONE CAN SAY THE BGM/S REPUTATION FOR CLDS IS UNDESERVED AFT
THIS STRETCH OF OVC WX. AREA OF CLRG OVER THE NRN FINGER LAKES AND
ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN QUICKLY FILLED IN AS HTG BUBBLED UP ADTNL
MOISTURE INTO A NEW SC DECK. WHILE SOME OF THE MODELS INSIST THAT
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO CLR THE AREA THIS EVE INTO MON...
STUBBORNLY STRNG INV REMAINS IN PLACE...AND WITH LGT WINDS AND NO
MIXING...SEE LTL TO BRK UP THE CLDS IN PLACE. ALSO...SAT IMAGES
SHOW A SOLID DECK ALL THE WAY BACK INTO EERN OH THIS AFT. WHEN
WINDS FNLY DO DVLP MON MRNG...THEY/RE FROM THE SE PTNLY ADDING
MOISTURE TO THE SNDG. SO...HAVE GONE AGAINST MODEL GUID AND GONE
WITH EXPERIENCE AND CONSISTENCY AND CONTD THE CLDS THRU THE NEAR
TERM.

TEMPS ENDED UP STAYING BLO GUID FCST TODAY AS THE STUBBORN CLDS
DID NOT ALLOW ANY HTG AS ANTICIPATED BY MOS. XPCT LTL DIURNAL CHG
OVRNGT WITH THE CLDS. FOR MON...SOME WEAK WAA DOES OCCUR WITH THE
SELY FLOW SO HAVE GONE NEARER GUID FCST. SOME LGT PCPN MAY DVLP
OVER THE SERN ZONES ON MON AS A WEAK WV PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH.
TEMPS MRGNL SO HAVE GONE WITH MIXED PCPN WHICH BLENDED WELL WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
A LARGE STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT NY AND PA STARTING LATE
MONDAY NIGHT/TUES MORNING AND MAY LINGER THROUGH LATE THURS
NIGHT...

MANY UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST WITH THIS STORM. BUT...
SYNOPTICALLY... GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE
UPPR LOW. GUIDANCE ALSO SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD IDEA OF THE OVERALL
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC LOW AND IT MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

LATE MONDAY NIGHT THE POTENT UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD
ALONG AND SLIGHTLY E OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND GENERATE
CYCLOGENESIS OVR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF KS AND NE. THIS SFC LOW
WILL THEN TRACK NE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. BY TUES
MORNING A STRONG VORT MAXIMA WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPR
TROUGH OVR FAR S TX GENERATING A SECONDARY SFC LOW/SFC TROUGH OVR
E LA. AS THIS OCCURS... THE MAIN SFC LOW OVER THE NORTH WILL BECOME
OCCLUDED.

THE UPPR TROUGH WILL START TO SHIFT EAST TUES NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST THE SECONDARY SFC LOW/TROUGH WILL MERGE WITH THE
PRIMARY SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARDS OUR CWA AND
BRING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING LATE MONDAY NIGHT
LASTING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AS THIS SYSTEM STARTS TO GENERATE PRECIP... EXPECT THE PRECIP TO
START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX AND MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. THIS IS DUE TO WAA AND ISENTROPHIC LIFT AHEAD THE
OCCLUDED FRONT. PRECIP WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE N AND WEST. A STRONG
LLJ WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CWA LATE TUES MORNING/AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN STRONG WAA AND GUSTY WINDS OVR THE REGION. BY TUES
AFTERNOON THE WAA WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AND ALL PRECIP WILL
FALL AS RAIN. RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH
WED NIGHT. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS PWAT
VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE COLDER ATTENDANT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL START TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION THURS MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY GUSTY BEHIND
THE FROPA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE VERY COLD AIR WITH IT DUE IT
WHERE IT ORIGINATED. IT IS A PACIFIC AIRMASS NOT AN ARCTIC.
THUS... TEMPS WILL NOT DROP DRAMATICALLY POST FRONTAL.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED ATTM TO BE HEAVY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FNT SWINGS THRU FRI NGT AND RETURNS THE AREA TO MORE TYPICAL
EARLY WINTER WX. CONTD CAA WILL GRADUALLY LWR TEMPS THRU THE PD
INCRSG THE CHANCE OF LE SNOW SHWRS. SHEARED FLOW ININTIALLY BHD
THE FNT WILL LIMIT THE AMT OF LE...WHILE THE DEEPER COLD AIR AITS
TO JUST BEYOND THE PD LATE SUN AND EARLY MON.

TEMPS WILL AVG NEAR NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LTL CHG IN THE OUTLOOK THRU THE TAF PD AS THE LL MOISTURE CONTS TO
BE TRAPPED BENEATH THE PERSISTENT INV. SOME CLRG THAT WAS WELL
FCST BY THE NAM IS NOW FILLING WITH CLDS AS ANY HTG QUICKLY DVLPS
FRESH SC. FCSTD SNDGS SHOW SOME EROSION OF THE MOISTURE OVER THE
NEXT 18 HRS BUT WITH LONG NGT AND LGT WINDS...VERY LTL TO MIX OUT
THE REMAINING MOISTURE. ALSO...SAT IMAGES SHOW A THICK DECK ALL
THE WAY BACK INTO OH.

OUTLOOK...

MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO THURS...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-THURS.

FRI...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM










000
FXUS61 KBGM 211909
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
209 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

CLOUDS AND COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY AS
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE. A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN MIDWEST IN
COMBINATION WITH A LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY RAIN INTO
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

NO ONE CAN SAY THE BGM/S REPUTATION FOR CLDS IS UNDESERVED AFT
THIS STRETCH OF OVC WX. AREA OF CLRG OVER THE NRN FINGER LAKES AND
ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN QUICKLY FILLED IN AS HTG BUBBLED UP ADTNL
MOISTURE INTO A NEW SC DECK. WHILE SOME OF THE MODELS INSIST THAT
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO CLR THE AREA THIS EVE INTO MON...
STUBBORNLY STRNG INV REMAINS IN PLACE...AND WITH LGT WINDS AND NO
MIXING...SEE LTL TO BRK UP THE CLDS IN PLACE. ALSO...SAT IMAGES
SHOW A SOLID DECK ALL THE WAY BACK INTO EERN OH THIS AFT. WHEN
WINDS FNLY DO DVLP MON MRNG...THEY/RE FROM THE SE PTNLY ADDING
MOISTURE TO THE SNDG. SO...HAVE GONE AGAINST MODEL GUID AND GONE
WITH EXPERIENCE AND CONSISTENCY AND CONTD THE CLDS THRU THE NEAR
TERM.

TEMPS ENDED UP STAYING BLO GUID FCST TODAY AS THE STUBBORN CLDS
DID NOT ALLOW ANY HTG AS ANTICIPATED BY MOS. XPCT LTL DIURNAL CHG
OVRNGT WITH THE CLDS. FOR MON...SOME WEAK WAA DOES OCCUR WITH THE
SELY FLOW SO HAVE GONE NEARER GUID FCST. SOME LGT PCPN MAY DVLP
OVER THE SERN ZONES ON MON AS A WEAK WV PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH.
TEMPS MRGNL SO HAVE GONE WITH MIXED PCPN WHICH BLENDED WELL WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
PERIOD WILL FEATURE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND A SLOWLY
YIELDING RIDGE AT THE SURFACE. WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES
LATE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR
ALOFT...PRECIPITATION APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE EXCLUSIVELY LIQUID.
FOR SOME LOCATIONS /MAINLY EASTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA/ THAT MAY
PRESENT A VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBILITY MONDAY NIGHT- EARLY
TUESDAY.

ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS STILL BRING LIGHT QPF INTO THE AREA WITH
THAT FIRST WAVE MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY TUESDAY...YET NAM AND
ESPECIALLY GFS HAVE VERY LITTLE. EITHER WAY...IT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT PRECIP THAT WILL HAVE TO FIGHT SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM STRONG HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES...AND DRY MID LEVELS. A LOT OF IT MAY TURN OUT
TO BE VIRGA. EASTERLY FLOW AGAINST THE POCONOS-CATSKILLS WILL MEAN
LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BEST THERE DUE TO UPSLOPING...OR AT
LEAST DRIZZLE...WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR MAJORITY OF THE
AREA. THE COLD AIR DAMMING VIA EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO MEAN LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE ON THE FRONT END OF THE WAVE UNTIL
TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING. THE USUAL SUSPECTS
WILL BE PRONE TO A VERY LIGHT ICING...POCONOS-CATSKILLS-MOHAWK
VALLEY-TUG HILL...BUT OF COURSE THAT WILL DEPEND ON ACTUAL
PRECIPITATION WHICH ITSELF IS NOT CERTAIN. MIDMORNING TUESDAY
ONWARD...ABOVE FREEZING FOR ENTIRE AREA AND THUS ONLY RAIN FOR
PRECIP TYPE.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GRADUALLY YIELDS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM INCREASINGLY MOIST SW-SSW FLOW ALONG
WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN. THUS RAIN CHANCES
AREAWIDE WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAWN
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... COLD FNT SWINGS THRU FRI NGT
AND RETURNS THE AREA TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY WINTER WX. CONTD CAA
WILL GRADUALLY LWR TEMPS THRU THE PD INCRSG THE CHANCE OF LE SNOW
SHWRS. SHEARED FLOW ININTIALLY BHD THE FNT WILL LIMIT THE AMT OF
LE...WHILE THE DEEPER COLD AIR AITS TO JUST BEYOND THE PD LATE SUN
AND EARLY MON.

TEMPS WILL AVG NEAR NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LTL CHG IN THE OUTLOOK THRU THE TAF PD AS THE LL MOISTURE CONTS TO
BE TRAPPED BENEATH THE PERSISTENT INV. SOME CLRG THAT WAS WELL
FCST BY THE NAM IS NOW FILLING WITH CLDS AS ANY HTG QUICKLY DVLPS
FRESH SC. FCSTD SNDGS SHOW SOME EROSION OF THE MOISTURE OVER THE
NEXT 18 HRS BUT WITH LONG NGT AND LGT WINDS...VERY LTL TO MIX OUT
THE REMAINING MOISTURE. ALSO...SAT IMAGES SHOW A THICK DECK ALL
THE WAY BACK INTO OH.

OUTLOOK...

MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO THURS...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-THURS.

FRI...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM






000
FXUS61 KBGM 211909
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
209 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

CLOUDS AND COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY AS
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE. A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN MIDWEST IN
COMBINATION WITH A LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY RAIN INTO
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

NO ONE CAN SAY THE BGM/S REPUTATION FOR CLDS IS UNDESERVED AFT
THIS STRETCH OF OVC WX. AREA OF CLRG OVER THE NRN FINGER LAKES AND
ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN QUICKLY FILLED IN AS HTG BUBBLED UP ADTNL
MOISTURE INTO A NEW SC DECK. WHILE SOME OF THE MODELS INSIST THAT
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO CLR THE AREA THIS EVE INTO MON...
STUBBORNLY STRNG INV REMAINS IN PLACE...AND WITH LGT WINDS AND NO
MIXING...SEE LTL TO BRK UP THE CLDS IN PLACE. ALSO...SAT IMAGES
SHOW A SOLID DECK ALL THE WAY BACK INTO EERN OH THIS AFT. WHEN
WINDS FNLY DO DVLP MON MRNG...THEY/RE FROM THE SE PTNLY ADDING
MOISTURE TO THE SNDG. SO...HAVE GONE AGAINST MODEL GUID AND GONE
WITH EXPERIENCE AND CONSISTENCY AND CONTD THE CLDS THRU THE NEAR
TERM.

TEMPS ENDED UP STAYING BLO GUID FCST TODAY AS THE STUBBORN CLDS
DID NOT ALLOW ANY HTG AS ANTICIPATED BY MOS. XPCT LTL DIURNAL CHG
OVRNGT WITH THE CLDS. FOR MON...SOME WEAK WAA DOES OCCUR WITH THE
SELY FLOW SO HAVE GONE NEARER GUID FCST. SOME LGT PCPN MAY DVLP
OVER THE SERN ZONES ON MON AS A WEAK WV PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH.
TEMPS MRGNL SO HAVE GONE WITH MIXED PCPN WHICH BLENDED WELL WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
PERIOD WILL FEATURE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND A SLOWLY
YIELDING RIDGE AT THE SURFACE. WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES
LATE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR
ALOFT...PRECIPITATION APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE EXCLUSIVELY LIQUID.
FOR SOME LOCATIONS /MAINLY EASTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA/ THAT MAY
PRESENT A VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBILITY MONDAY NIGHT- EARLY
TUESDAY.

ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS STILL BRING LIGHT QPF INTO THE AREA WITH
THAT FIRST WAVE MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY TUESDAY...YET NAM AND
ESPECIALLY GFS HAVE VERY LITTLE. EITHER WAY...IT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT PRECIP THAT WILL HAVE TO FIGHT SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM STRONG HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES...AND DRY MID LEVELS. A LOT OF IT MAY TURN OUT
TO BE VIRGA. EASTERLY FLOW AGAINST THE POCONOS-CATSKILLS WILL MEAN
LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BEST THERE DUE TO UPSLOPING...OR AT
LEAST DRIZZLE...WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR MAJORITY OF THE
AREA. THE COLD AIR DAMMING VIA EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO MEAN LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE ON THE FRONT END OF THE WAVE UNTIL
TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING. THE USUAL SUSPECTS
WILL BE PRONE TO A VERY LIGHT ICING...POCONOS-CATSKILLS-MOHAWK
VALLEY-TUG HILL...BUT OF COURSE THAT WILL DEPEND ON ACTUAL
PRECIPITATION WHICH ITSELF IS NOT CERTAIN. MIDMORNING TUESDAY
ONWARD...ABOVE FREEZING FOR ENTIRE AREA AND THUS ONLY RAIN FOR
PRECIP TYPE.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GRADUALLY YIELDS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM INCREASINGLY MOIST SW-SSW FLOW ALONG
WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN. THUS RAIN CHANCES
AREAWIDE WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAWN
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... COLD FNT SWINGS THRU FRI NGT
AND RETURNS THE AREA TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY WINTER WX. CONTD CAA
WILL GRADUALLY LWR TEMPS THRU THE PD INCRSG THE CHANCE OF LE SNOW
SHWRS. SHEARED FLOW ININTIALLY BHD THE FNT WILL LIMIT THE AMT OF
LE...WHILE THE DEEPER COLD AIR AITS TO JUST BEYOND THE PD LATE SUN
AND EARLY MON.

TEMPS WILL AVG NEAR NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LTL CHG IN THE OUTLOOK THRU THE TAF PD AS THE LL MOISTURE CONTS TO
BE TRAPPED BENEATH THE PERSISTENT INV. SOME CLRG THAT WAS WELL
FCST BY THE NAM IS NOW FILLING WITH CLDS AS ANY HTG QUICKLY DVLPS
FRESH SC. FCSTD SNDGS SHOW SOME EROSION OF THE MOISTURE OVER THE
NEXT 18 HRS BUT WITH LONG NGT AND LGT WINDS...VERY LTL TO MIX OUT
THE REMAINING MOISTURE. ALSO...SAT IMAGES SHOW A THICK DECK ALL
THE WAY BACK INTO OH.

OUTLOOK...

MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO THURS...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-THURS.

FRI...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 211812
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
112 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE THIS MORNING
WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF VERMONT WITH A
DUSTING TO TWO INCHES EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER WILL EXIST OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE
PATTERN WILL CHANGE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS EVE
DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS UPDATE WITH
MAIN FOCUS ON LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING TO FALL ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SMALL UPPER
CIRCULATION OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE HAVING AN IMPACT ON OUR AREA THIS
MORNING WITH LIGHT SNOW FALLING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT...
GENERALLY SOUTH OF MONTPELIER. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE UPPER CIRCULATION MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST TO HAVE
LESS OF AN IMPACT. HAVE ADDED LIGHT SNOW TO THE FORECAST FROM
SOUTHERN ADDISON AND SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTIES SOUTH INTO RUTLAND
AND WINDSOR COUNTIES. LOOKING AT A DUSTING TO TWO INCHES IN THIS
AREA WITH JUST CLOUDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...QUIET DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CLOUDS ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE AREA. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME CLEARING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH...WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 30S. WILL SEE SOME CLEARING MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM. VERY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND CLOUDS INCREASE...A MILD
DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 40S IN PARTS OF OUR AREA.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AS A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EST SUNDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA
OF RAINY AND POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY INTO
THE MORNING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS DAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS ACROSS CANADIAN MARITIMES AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ALOFT WILL RESULT IN INCREASED
FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN TO BECOME
RATHER WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. COULD BE A FEW POCKETS OF
SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM...BUT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN.

CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE FURTHER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST. STRONG SHORTWAVE
ROUNDS BASE OF THE TROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST.
DEEP AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
850 MB WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD
INDICATED...AND FLOW NOW PROJECTED TO BE MORE SOUTHERLY THAN
SOUTHEAST. STILL LOOKING AT A 40-50 KT 850 MB JET HOWEVER. BUT
WITH LESS OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING WOULD NOT BE
QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT. BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HIGH
WINDS CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PERHAPS ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM...WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL
AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
AMOUNTS WILL VARY A BIT DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS. HIGHEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG SOUTH FACING
SLOPES OF SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
OVER NORTHWEST VERMONT AND FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK. WITH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...AND
LITTLE DROP OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND
MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THE SNOWMELT
COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN SMALL STREAMS. RIGHT NOW
RIVER GAUGES ARE SHOWING RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE LOW...SO WHILE
SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
RIVER FLOODING ISSUES. RAIN CONTINUES EARLY ON CHRISTMAS
DAY...THEN SOME DRYING EXPECTED WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT DURING
THE MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AS COLDER AIR RETURNS. TEMPS IN VALLEYS REMAIN MILD THOUGH
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH READINGS IN THE 40S.

DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS
A CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...WV/IR SATELLITE IS INDICATING THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY SLIDING TO THE NORTH UNDER VERY WEAK FLOW.
MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WHERE
MOST SITES WILL DROP IN VISIBILITY TO LOW MVFR. SIMILAR TO THE
THINKING EARLIER, EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TO LAST
NIGHT WITH LOW MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO SETTLE IN WITH PATCHY FOG.
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MON-00Z TUE...LOW CLOUDS WITH MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-18Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 211812
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
112 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE THIS MORNING
WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF VERMONT WITH A
DUSTING TO TWO INCHES EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER WILL EXIST OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE
PATTERN WILL CHANGE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS EVE
DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS UPDATE WITH
MAIN FOCUS ON LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING TO FALL ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SMALL UPPER
CIRCULATION OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE HAVING AN IMPACT ON OUR AREA THIS
MORNING WITH LIGHT SNOW FALLING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT...
GENERALLY SOUTH OF MONTPELIER. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE UPPER CIRCULATION MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST TO HAVE
LESS OF AN IMPACT. HAVE ADDED LIGHT SNOW TO THE FORECAST FROM
SOUTHERN ADDISON AND SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTIES SOUTH INTO RUTLAND
AND WINDSOR COUNTIES. LOOKING AT A DUSTING TO TWO INCHES IN THIS
AREA WITH JUST CLOUDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...QUIET DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CLOUDS ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE AREA. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME CLEARING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH...WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 30S. WILL SEE SOME CLEARING MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM. VERY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND CLOUDS INCREASE...A MILD
DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 40S IN PARTS OF OUR AREA.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AS A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EST SUNDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA
OF RAINY AND POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY INTO
THE MORNING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS DAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS ACROSS CANADIAN MARITIMES AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ALOFT WILL RESULT IN INCREASED
FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN TO BECOME
RATHER WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. COULD BE A FEW POCKETS OF
SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM...BUT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN.

CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE FURTHER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST. STRONG SHORTWAVE
ROUNDS BASE OF THE TROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST.
DEEP AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
850 MB WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD
INDICATED...AND FLOW NOW PROJECTED TO BE MORE SOUTHERLY THAN
SOUTHEAST. STILL LOOKING AT A 40-50 KT 850 MB JET HOWEVER. BUT
WITH LESS OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING WOULD NOT BE
QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT. BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HIGH
WINDS CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PERHAPS ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM...WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL
AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
AMOUNTS WILL VARY A BIT DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS. HIGHEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG SOUTH FACING
SLOPES OF SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
OVER NORTHWEST VERMONT AND FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK. WITH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...AND
LITTLE DROP OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND
MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THE SNOWMELT
COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN SMALL STREAMS. RIGHT NOW
RIVER GAUGES ARE SHOWING RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE LOW...SO WHILE
SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
RIVER FLOODING ISSUES. RAIN CONTINUES EARLY ON CHRISTMAS
DAY...THEN SOME DRYING EXPECTED WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT DURING
THE MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AS COLDER AIR RETURNS. TEMPS IN VALLEYS REMAIN MILD THOUGH
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH READINGS IN THE 40S.

DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS
A CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...WV/IR SATELLITE IS INDICATING THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY SLIDING TO THE NORTH UNDER VERY WEAK FLOW.
MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WHERE
MOST SITES WILL DROP IN VISIBILITY TO LOW MVFR. SIMILAR TO THE
THINKING EARLIER, EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TO LAST
NIGHT WITH LOW MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO SETTLE IN WITH PATCHY FOG.
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MON-00Z TUE...LOW CLOUDS WITH MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-18Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 211812
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
112 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE THIS MORNING
WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF VERMONT WITH A
DUSTING TO TWO INCHES EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER WILL EXIST OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE
PATTERN WILL CHANGE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS EVE
DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS UPDATE WITH
MAIN FOCUS ON LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING TO FALL ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SMALL UPPER
CIRCULATION OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE HAVING AN IMPACT ON OUR AREA THIS
MORNING WITH LIGHT SNOW FALLING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT...
GENERALLY SOUTH OF MONTPELIER. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE UPPER CIRCULATION MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST TO HAVE
LESS OF AN IMPACT. HAVE ADDED LIGHT SNOW TO THE FORECAST FROM
SOUTHERN ADDISON AND SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTIES SOUTH INTO RUTLAND
AND WINDSOR COUNTIES. LOOKING AT A DUSTING TO TWO INCHES IN THIS
AREA WITH JUST CLOUDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...QUIET DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CLOUDS ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE AREA. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME CLEARING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH...WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 30S. WILL SEE SOME CLEARING MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM. VERY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND CLOUDS INCREASE...A MILD
DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 40S IN PARTS OF OUR AREA.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AS A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EST SUNDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA
OF RAINY AND POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY INTO
THE MORNING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS DAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS ACROSS CANADIAN MARITIMES AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ALOFT WILL RESULT IN INCREASED
FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN TO BECOME
RATHER WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. COULD BE A FEW POCKETS OF
SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM...BUT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN.

CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE FURTHER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST. STRONG SHORTWAVE
ROUNDS BASE OF THE TROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST.
DEEP AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
850 MB WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD
INDICATED...AND FLOW NOW PROJECTED TO BE MORE SOUTHERLY THAN
SOUTHEAST. STILL LOOKING AT A 40-50 KT 850 MB JET HOWEVER. BUT
WITH LESS OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING WOULD NOT BE
QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT. BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HIGH
WINDS CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PERHAPS ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM...WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL
AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
AMOUNTS WILL VARY A BIT DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS. HIGHEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG SOUTH FACING
SLOPES OF SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
OVER NORTHWEST VERMONT AND FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK. WITH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...AND
LITTLE DROP OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND
MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THE SNOWMELT
COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN SMALL STREAMS. RIGHT NOW
RIVER GAUGES ARE SHOWING RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE LOW...SO WHILE
SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
RIVER FLOODING ISSUES. RAIN CONTINUES EARLY ON CHRISTMAS
DAY...THEN SOME DRYING EXPECTED WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT DURING
THE MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AS COLDER AIR RETURNS. TEMPS IN VALLEYS REMAIN MILD THOUGH
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH READINGS IN THE 40S.

DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS
A CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...WV/IR SATELLITE IS INDICATING THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY SLIDING TO THE NORTH UNDER VERY WEAK FLOW.
MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WHERE
MOST SITES WILL DROP IN VISIBILITY TO LOW MVFR. SIMILAR TO THE
THINKING EARLIER, EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TO LAST
NIGHT WITH LOW MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO SETTLE IN WITH PATCHY FOG.
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MON-00Z TUE...LOW CLOUDS WITH MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-18Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 211812
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
112 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE THIS MORNING
WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF VERMONT WITH A
DUSTING TO TWO INCHES EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER WILL EXIST OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE
PATTERN WILL CHANGE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS EVE
DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS UPDATE WITH
MAIN FOCUS ON LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING TO FALL ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SMALL UPPER
CIRCULATION OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE HAVING AN IMPACT ON OUR AREA THIS
MORNING WITH LIGHT SNOW FALLING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT...
GENERALLY SOUTH OF MONTPELIER. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE UPPER CIRCULATION MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST TO HAVE
LESS OF AN IMPACT. HAVE ADDED LIGHT SNOW TO THE FORECAST FROM
SOUTHERN ADDISON AND SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTIES SOUTH INTO RUTLAND
AND WINDSOR COUNTIES. LOOKING AT A DUSTING TO TWO INCHES IN THIS
AREA WITH JUST CLOUDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...QUIET DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CLOUDS ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE AREA. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME CLEARING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH...WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 30S. WILL SEE SOME CLEARING MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM. VERY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND CLOUDS INCREASE...A MILD
DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 40S IN PARTS OF OUR AREA.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AS A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EST SUNDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA
OF RAINY AND POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY INTO
THE MORNING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS DAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS ACROSS CANADIAN MARITIMES AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ALOFT WILL RESULT IN INCREASED
FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN TO BECOME
RATHER WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. COULD BE A FEW POCKETS OF
SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM...BUT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN.

CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE FURTHER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST. STRONG SHORTWAVE
ROUNDS BASE OF THE TROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST.
DEEP AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
850 MB WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD
INDICATED...AND FLOW NOW PROJECTED TO BE MORE SOUTHERLY THAN
SOUTHEAST. STILL LOOKING AT A 40-50 KT 850 MB JET HOWEVER. BUT
WITH LESS OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING WOULD NOT BE
QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT. BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HIGH
WINDS CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PERHAPS ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM...WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL
AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
AMOUNTS WILL VARY A BIT DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS. HIGHEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG SOUTH FACING
SLOPES OF SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
OVER NORTHWEST VERMONT AND FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK. WITH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...AND
LITTLE DROP OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND
MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THE SNOWMELT
COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN SMALL STREAMS. RIGHT NOW
RIVER GAUGES ARE SHOWING RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE LOW...SO WHILE
SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
RIVER FLOODING ISSUES. RAIN CONTINUES EARLY ON CHRISTMAS
DAY...THEN SOME DRYING EXPECTED WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT DURING
THE MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AS COLDER AIR RETURNS. TEMPS IN VALLEYS REMAIN MILD THOUGH
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH READINGS IN THE 40S.

DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS
A CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...WV/IR SATELLITE IS INDICATING THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY SLIDING TO THE NORTH UNDER VERY WEAK FLOW.
MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WHERE
MOST SITES WILL DROP IN VISIBILITY TO LOW MVFR. SIMILAR TO THE
THINKING EARLIER, EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TO LAST
NIGHT WITH LOW MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO SETTLE IN WITH PATCHY FOG.
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MON-00Z TUE...LOW CLOUDS WITH MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-18Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/DEAL




000
FXUS61 KOKX 211759
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1259 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING NEARBY. HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AS IT
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE ON CHRISTMAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL THEN AFFECT THE
REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES FOR DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ZONES WILL ACT AS A FOCUS
FOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...AND LIFT WILL BE PROVIDED ALOFT AS A
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH. PCPN TYPE MAINLY SNOW WITH SUFFICIENT
ICE NUCLEI LIKELY PRESENT...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS ACROSS
EASTERN LONG ISLAND COMPLICATE THE FORECAST. PROBABLY A MIXTURE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW THERE...PROBABLY EVEN MOSTLY OR ALL RAIN OVER
THE PARTS OF THE FORKS REGION. IN SHORT...TRACE TO HALF INCH OF
SNOW CURRENTLY FORECAST OVER LONG ISLAND...WITH UP TO AROUND AN
INCH ACROSS PARTS OF SE CT. MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA COULD GET
A FLURRY OR TWO THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LIFT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXIT EAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WEST.
WILL GO WITH SCT FLURRIES OVER LI AND CT...AND PCPN TYPE OF
SPRINKLES ALSO PROBABLY PRESENT EARLY IN THE EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL SECTIONS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO HEAD NORTH. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW
LEVEL WINDS HERE VEER TO THE EAST AND AID LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE CENTER OF THE
LOW WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN RESULT...BUT RESERVED FOR THE AFTERNOON.

THE LOW CENTER WEAKENS AS IT HEADS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW STILL STRENGTHENS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STILL INCREASES ON AN ENE FLOW...AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY. CHC POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT RAIN FOR MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...FOR
SOME NW SECTIONS...MODELS SHOWING A WARM NOSE ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR
A CHANCE OF SLEET DURING THE EVENING...THEN POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN
AS THE WARMEST PART OF THE NOSE EXCEEDS 3C AND SURFACE TEMPS HOVER
AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...BUT THE
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE VICINITY. ECMWF OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY WETTER FOR TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS CONSISTENTLY
DRIER...AND THE NAM SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN DEPENDING ON LOCATION. WILL
CAP POPS AT 50% AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
FREEZING RAIN STILL POSSIBLE EARLY ON IN THE MORNING FOR THE FAR NW
PORTION OF THE CWA...OTHERWISE...LIGHT RAIN. RAIN THEN BECOMES MORE
LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS US CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.
MODELS SHOW A STRONG PRIMARY LOW CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. A
WEAKER SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER OR TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS IN
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BEFORE PASSING NORTH OF US WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WEDS/WEDS EVENING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...SO BY CHRISTMAS MORNING...SHOWERS STILL LIKELY EARLY ON FOR
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA...WITH MAINLY LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. BY NOON...LIKELY DRY EVERYWHERE.

BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR WEDS THRU THURS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES
THROUGH THE EASTERN ZONES WEDS AFTN/EVE...BUT STRONG GUSTS WILL
PROBABLY HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN THROUGH AN INVERSION.
STRONGER GUSTS MAY BE REALIZED DURING THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COURTESY OF BETTER MIXING. LOOKS LIKE WE FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA HOWEVER. WILL NEED TO KEEP AND EYE ON THIS TO SEE IF THE
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE. HIGHS ON WEDS IN WELL INTO THE 50S...AND WITH A MODERATE
WSW FLOW AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS COOLER
TEMPS...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMALS. THEN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER
INLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH MON. LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWS NO
SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT WITH WEAK SFC TROF DRAPED ACROSS AREA AND
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL INVERSION. CIGS MAY
EVEN DROP TO IFR LATE TONIGHT INTO MON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE/SNOW WILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF IN PLACE...MAINLY EAST OF
THE NYC TERMINALS.

A WEAK NLY FLOW AT LESS THAN 10 KT GRADUALLY VEERS AROUND TO E/NE
BY MON AFT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E FLOW. RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT.
.TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY IN RAIN. E WINDS
10-20 KT...BECOMING SE.
.WEDNESDAY...HIGH IMPACT EVENT BECOMING LIKELY. IFR CONDS WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND S/SE WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS. WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.THURSDAY...SUB-VFR CONDS IN THE MORNING IN RAIN SHOWERS. VFR
CONDS BY AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.
.FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS NORTH OF THE WATERS. NORTH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
ALONG WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN OR 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL
OTHER WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...WITH SEAS ALSO
REMAINING BELOW 5 FT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA
WATERS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. SMALL CRAFT WIND
AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND ACROSS ALL THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. THEN IN THE COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY WIND GUSTS WILL BE GALE FORCE ACROSS
ALL THE WATERS AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING
TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LATER WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD TOTAL 1
TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KOKX 211759
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1259 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING NEARBY. HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AS IT
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE ON CHRISTMAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL THEN AFFECT THE
REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES FOR DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ZONES WILL ACT AS A FOCUS
FOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...AND LIFT WILL BE PROVIDED ALOFT AS A
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH. PCPN TYPE MAINLY SNOW WITH SUFFICIENT
ICE NUCLEI LIKELY PRESENT...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS ACROSS
EASTERN LONG ISLAND COMPLICATE THE FORECAST. PROBABLY A MIXTURE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW THERE...PROBABLY EVEN MOSTLY OR ALL RAIN OVER
THE PARTS OF THE FORKS REGION. IN SHORT...TRACE TO HALF INCH OF
SNOW CURRENTLY FORECAST OVER LONG ISLAND...WITH UP TO AROUND AN
INCH ACROSS PARTS OF SE CT. MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA COULD GET
A FLURRY OR TWO THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LIFT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXIT EAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WEST.
WILL GO WITH SCT FLURRIES OVER LI AND CT...AND PCPN TYPE OF
SPRINKLES ALSO PROBABLY PRESENT EARLY IN THE EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL SECTIONS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO HEAD NORTH. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW
LEVEL WINDS HERE VEER TO THE EAST AND AID LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE CENTER OF THE
LOW WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN RESULT...BUT RESERVED FOR THE AFTERNOON.

THE LOW CENTER WEAKENS AS IT HEADS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW STILL STRENGTHENS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STILL INCREASES ON AN ENE FLOW...AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY. CHC POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT RAIN FOR MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...FOR
SOME NW SECTIONS...MODELS SHOWING A WARM NOSE ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR
A CHANCE OF SLEET DURING THE EVENING...THEN POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN
AS THE WARMEST PART OF THE NOSE EXCEEDS 3C AND SURFACE TEMPS HOVER
AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...BUT THE
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE VICINITY. ECMWF OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY WETTER FOR TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS CONSISTENTLY
DRIER...AND THE NAM SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN DEPENDING ON LOCATION. WILL
CAP POPS AT 50% AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
FREEZING RAIN STILL POSSIBLE EARLY ON IN THE MORNING FOR THE FAR NW
PORTION OF THE CWA...OTHERWISE...LIGHT RAIN. RAIN THEN BECOMES MORE
LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS US CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.
MODELS SHOW A STRONG PRIMARY LOW CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. A
WEAKER SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER OR TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS IN
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BEFORE PASSING NORTH OF US WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WEDS/WEDS EVENING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...SO BY CHRISTMAS MORNING...SHOWERS STILL LIKELY EARLY ON FOR
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA...WITH MAINLY LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. BY NOON...LIKELY DRY EVERYWHERE.

BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR WEDS THRU THURS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES
THROUGH THE EASTERN ZONES WEDS AFTN/EVE...BUT STRONG GUSTS WILL
PROBABLY HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN THROUGH AN INVERSION.
STRONGER GUSTS MAY BE REALIZED DURING THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COURTESY OF BETTER MIXING. LOOKS LIKE WE FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA HOWEVER. WILL NEED TO KEEP AND EYE ON THIS TO SEE IF THE
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE. HIGHS ON WEDS IN WELL INTO THE 50S...AND WITH A MODERATE
WSW FLOW AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS COOLER
TEMPS...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMALS. THEN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER
INLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH MON. LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWS NO
SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT WITH WEAK SFC TROF DRAPED ACROSS AREA AND
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL INVERSION. CIGS MAY
EVEN DROP TO IFR LATE TONIGHT INTO MON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE/SNOW WILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF IN PLACE...MAINLY EAST OF
THE NYC TERMINALS.

A WEAK NLY FLOW AT LESS THAN 10 KT GRADUALLY VEERS AROUND TO E/NE
BY MON AFT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E FLOW. RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT.
.TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY IN RAIN. E WINDS
10-20 KT...BECOMING SE.
.WEDNESDAY...HIGH IMPACT EVENT BECOMING LIKELY. IFR CONDS WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND S/SE WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS. WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.THURSDAY...SUB-VFR CONDS IN THE MORNING IN RAIN SHOWERS. VFR
CONDS BY AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.
.FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS NORTH OF THE WATERS. NORTH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
ALONG WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN OR 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL
OTHER WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...WITH SEAS ALSO
REMAINING BELOW 5 FT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA
WATERS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. SMALL CRAFT WIND
AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND ACROSS ALL THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. THEN IN THE COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY WIND GUSTS WILL BE GALE FORCE ACROSS
ALL THE WATERS AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING
TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LATER WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD TOTAL 1
TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KBGM 211748
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1248 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, INCLUDING
CHRISTMAS DAY, AND BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN SOME AREAS AT THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
MIX TO SNOW SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS DAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THIS STORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER DAY OF CLOUDS WHICH WILL MAKE DAY 14 IN A ROW. OPTIMISTIC
MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM JUST 24 HOURS AGO ARE MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC
FOR SUN CHANCES TODAY. 0Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A THIN LAYER
OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION, WHICH HAS BEEN A
BROKEN RECORD FOR US NOW. AT BEST WE MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER, NOT A TOTAL CLEAR OUT, LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE FAR
WEST AND SOUTH. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS, EXTENSIVE
CLOUDS BACK TO OUR WEST THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN AND OHIO DO NOT. A
STRAY FLURRY OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT OVERALL MOST
WILL REMAIN DRY. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AGAIN TODAY, AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 5-6 DEGREES WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES RIGHT NOW.

MONDAY MAY BE OUR MOST REALISTIC SHOT AT SUNSHINE AS THE FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY, AND THIS MAY HELP TO LIFT ANY LOW CLOUDS TO
OUR NORTH. RIGHT NOW OBS SUPPORT THIS BACK OVER KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE. AS OUR MID WEEK STORM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE COUNTRY, HOPEFULLY WE CAN FINALLY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
CLOUDS BEFORE WE TURN UNSETTLED AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
PERIOD WILL FEATURE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND A SLOWLY
YIELDING RIDGE AT THE SURFACE. WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES
LATE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR
ALOFT...PRECIPITATION APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE EXCLUSIVELY LIQUID.
FOR SOME LOCATIONS /MAINLY EASTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA/ THAT MAY
PRESENT A VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBILITY MONDAY NIGHT- EARLY
TUESDAY.

ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS STILL BRING LIGHT QPF INTO THE AREA WITH
THAT FIRST WAVE MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY TUESDAY...YET NAM AND
ESPECIALLY GFS HAVE VERY LITTLE. EITHER WAY...IT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT PRECIP THAT WILL HAVE TO FIGHT SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM STRONG HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES...AND DRY MID LEVELS. A LOT OF IT MAY TURN OUT
TO BE VIRGA. EASTERLY FLOW AGAINST THE POCONOS-CATSKILLS WILL MEAN
LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BEST THERE DUE TO UPSLOPING...OR AT
LEAST DRIZZLE...WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR MAJORITY OF THE
AREA. THE COLD AIR DAMMING VIA EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO MEAN LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE ON THE FRONT END OF THE WAVE UNTIL
TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING. THE USUAL SUSPECTS
WILL BE PRONE TO A VERY LIGHT ICING...POCONOS-CATSKILLS-MOHAWK
VALLEY-TUG HILL...BUT OF COURSE THAT WILL DEPEND ON ACTUAL
PRECIPITATION WHICH ITSELF IS NOT CERTAIN. MIDMORNING TUESDAY
ONWARD...ABOVE FREEZING FOR ENTIRE AREA AND THUS ONLY RAIN FOR
PRECIP TYPE.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GRADUALLY YIELDS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM INCREASINGLY MOIST SW-SSW FLOW ALONG
WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN. THUS RAIN CHANCES
AREAWIDE WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAWN
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

COLD FNT SWINGS THRU FRI NGT AND RETURNS THE AREA TO MORE TYPICAL
EARLY WINTER WX. CONTD CAA WILL GRADUALLY LWR TEMPS THRU THE PD
INCRSG THE CHANCE OF LE SNOW SHWRS. SHEARED FLOW ININTIALLY BHD
THE FNT WILL LIMIT THE AMT OF LE...WHILE THE DEEPER COLD AIR AITS
TO JUST BEYOND THE PD LATE SUN AND EARLY MON.

TEMPS WILL AVG NEAR NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

LTL CHG IN THE OUTLOOK THRU THE TAF PD AS THE LL MOISTURE CONTS TO
BE TRAPPED BENEATH THE PERSISTENT INV. SOME CLRG THAT WAS WELL
FCST BY THE NAM IS NOW FILLING WITH CLDS AS ANY HTG QUICKLY DVLPS
FRESH SC. FCSTD SNDGS SHOW SOME EROSION OF THE MOISTURE OVER THE
NEXT 18 HRS BUT WITH LONG NGT AND LGT WINDS...VERY LTL TO MIX OUT
THE REMAINING MOISTURE. ALSO...SAT IMAGES SHOW A THICK DECK ALL
THE WAY BACK INTO OH.

OUTLOOK...

MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO THURS...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-THURS.

FRI...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM






000
FXUS61 KBGM 211748
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1248 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, INCLUDING
CHRISTMAS DAY, AND BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN SOME AREAS AT THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
MIX TO SNOW SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS DAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THIS STORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER DAY OF CLOUDS WHICH WILL MAKE DAY 14 IN A ROW. OPTIMISTIC
MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM JUST 24 HOURS AGO ARE MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC
FOR SUN CHANCES TODAY. 0Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A THIN LAYER
OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION, WHICH HAS BEEN A
BROKEN RECORD FOR US NOW. AT BEST WE MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER, NOT A TOTAL CLEAR OUT, LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE FAR
WEST AND SOUTH. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS, EXTENSIVE
CLOUDS BACK TO OUR WEST THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN AND OHIO DO NOT. A
STRAY FLURRY OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT OVERALL MOST
WILL REMAIN DRY. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AGAIN TODAY, AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 5-6 DEGREES WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES RIGHT NOW.

MONDAY MAY BE OUR MOST REALISTIC SHOT AT SUNSHINE AS THE FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY, AND THIS MAY HELP TO LIFT ANY LOW CLOUDS TO
OUR NORTH. RIGHT NOW OBS SUPPORT THIS BACK OVER KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE. AS OUR MID WEEK STORM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE COUNTRY, HOPEFULLY WE CAN FINALLY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
CLOUDS BEFORE WE TURN UNSETTLED AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
PERIOD WILL FEATURE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND A SLOWLY
YIELDING RIDGE AT THE SURFACE. WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES
LATE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR
ALOFT...PRECIPITATION APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE EXCLUSIVELY LIQUID.
FOR SOME LOCATIONS /MAINLY EASTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA/ THAT MAY
PRESENT A VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBILITY MONDAY NIGHT- EARLY
TUESDAY.

ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS STILL BRING LIGHT QPF INTO THE AREA WITH
THAT FIRST WAVE MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY TUESDAY...YET NAM AND
ESPECIALLY GFS HAVE VERY LITTLE. EITHER WAY...IT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT PRECIP THAT WILL HAVE TO FIGHT SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM STRONG HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES...AND DRY MID LEVELS. A LOT OF IT MAY TURN OUT
TO BE VIRGA. EASTERLY FLOW AGAINST THE POCONOS-CATSKILLS WILL MEAN
LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BEST THERE DUE TO UPSLOPING...OR AT
LEAST DRIZZLE...WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR MAJORITY OF THE
AREA. THE COLD AIR DAMMING VIA EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO MEAN LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE ON THE FRONT END OF THE WAVE UNTIL
TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING. THE USUAL SUSPECTS
WILL BE PRONE TO A VERY LIGHT ICING...POCONOS-CATSKILLS-MOHAWK
VALLEY-TUG HILL...BUT OF COURSE THAT WILL DEPEND ON ACTUAL
PRECIPITATION WHICH ITSELF IS NOT CERTAIN. MIDMORNING TUESDAY
ONWARD...ABOVE FREEZING FOR ENTIRE AREA AND THUS ONLY RAIN FOR
PRECIP TYPE.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GRADUALLY YIELDS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM INCREASINGLY MOIST SW-SSW FLOW ALONG
WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN. THUS RAIN CHANCES
AREAWIDE WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAWN
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

COLD FNT SWINGS THRU FRI NGT AND RETURNS THE AREA TO MORE TYPICAL
EARLY WINTER WX. CONTD CAA WILL GRADUALLY LWR TEMPS THRU THE PD
INCRSG THE CHANCE OF LE SNOW SHWRS. SHEARED FLOW ININTIALLY BHD
THE FNT WILL LIMIT THE AMT OF LE...WHILE THE DEEPER COLD AIR AITS
TO JUST BEYOND THE PD LATE SUN AND EARLY MON.

TEMPS WILL AVG NEAR NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

LTL CHG IN THE OUTLOOK THRU THE TAF PD AS THE LL MOISTURE CONTS TO
BE TRAPPED BENEATH THE PERSISTENT INV. SOME CLRG THAT WAS WELL
FCST BY THE NAM IS NOW FILLING WITH CLDS AS ANY HTG QUICKLY DVLPS
FRESH SC. FCSTD SNDGS SHOW SOME EROSION OF THE MOISTURE OVER THE
NEXT 18 HRS BUT WITH LONG NGT AND LGT WINDS...VERY LTL TO MIX OUT
THE REMAINING MOISTURE. ALSO...SAT IMAGES SHOW A THICK DECK ALL
THE WAY BACK INTO OH.

OUTLOOK...

MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO THURS...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-THURS.

FRI...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM






000
FXUS61 KBGM 211748
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1248 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, INCLUDING
CHRISTMAS DAY, AND BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN SOME AREAS AT THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
MIX TO SNOW SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS DAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THIS STORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER DAY OF CLOUDS WHICH WILL MAKE DAY 14 IN A ROW. OPTIMISTIC
MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM JUST 24 HOURS AGO ARE MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC
FOR SUN CHANCES TODAY. 0Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A THIN LAYER
OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION, WHICH HAS BEEN A
BROKEN RECORD FOR US NOW. AT BEST WE MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER, NOT A TOTAL CLEAR OUT, LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE FAR
WEST AND SOUTH. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS, EXTENSIVE
CLOUDS BACK TO OUR WEST THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN AND OHIO DO NOT. A
STRAY FLURRY OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT OVERALL MOST
WILL REMAIN DRY. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AGAIN TODAY, AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 5-6 DEGREES WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES RIGHT NOW.

MONDAY MAY BE OUR MOST REALISTIC SHOT AT SUNSHINE AS THE FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY, AND THIS MAY HELP TO LIFT ANY LOW CLOUDS TO
OUR NORTH. RIGHT NOW OBS SUPPORT THIS BACK OVER KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE. AS OUR MID WEEK STORM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE COUNTRY, HOPEFULLY WE CAN FINALLY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
CLOUDS BEFORE WE TURN UNSETTLED AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
PERIOD WILL FEATURE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND A SLOWLY
YIELDING RIDGE AT THE SURFACE. WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES
LATE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR
ALOFT...PRECIPITATION APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE EXCLUSIVELY LIQUID.
FOR SOME LOCATIONS /MAINLY EASTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA/ THAT MAY
PRESENT A VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBILITY MONDAY NIGHT- EARLY
TUESDAY.

ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS STILL BRING LIGHT QPF INTO THE AREA WITH
THAT FIRST WAVE MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY TUESDAY...YET NAM AND
ESPECIALLY GFS HAVE VERY LITTLE. EITHER WAY...IT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT PRECIP THAT WILL HAVE TO FIGHT SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM STRONG HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES...AND DRY MID LEVELS. A LOT OF IT MAY TURN OUT
TO BE VIRGA. EASTERLY FLOW AGAINST THE POCONOS-CATSKILLS WILL MEAN
LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BEST THERE DUE TO UPSLOPING...OR AT
LEAST DRIZZLE...WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR MAJORITY OF THE
AREA. THE COLD AIR DAMMING VIA EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO MEAN LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE ON THE FRONT END OF THE WAVE UNTIL
TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING. THE USUAL SUSPECTS
WILL BE PRONE TO A VERY LIGHT ICING...POCONOS-CATSKILLS-MOHAWK
VALLEY-TUG HILL...BUT OF COURSE THAT WILL DEPEND ON ACTUAL
PRECIPITATION WHICH ITSELF IS NOT CERTAIN. MIDMORNING TUESDAY
ONWARD...ABOVE FREEZING FOR ENTIRE AREA AND THUS ONLY RAIN FOR
PRECIP TYPE.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GRADUALLY YIELDS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM INCREASINGLY MOIST SW-SSW FLOW ALONG
WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN. THUS RAIN CHANCES
AREAWIDE WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAWN
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

COLD FNT SWINGS THRU FRI NGT AND RETURNS THE AREA TO MORE TYPICAL
EARLY WINTER WX. CONTD CAA WILL GRADUALLY LWR TEMPS THRU THE PD
INCRSG THE CHANCE OF LE SNOW SHWRS. SHEARED FLOW ININTIALLY BHD
THE FNT WILL LIMIT THE AMT OF LE...WHILE THE DEEPER COLD AIR AITS
TO JUST BEYOND THE PD LATE SUN AND EARLY MON.

TEMPS WILL AVG NEAR NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

LTL CHG IN THE OUTLOOK THRU THE TAF PD AS THE LL MOISTURE CONTS TO
BE TRAPPED BENEATH THE PERSISTENT INV. SOME CLRG THAT WAS WELL
FCST BY THE NAM IS NOW FILLING WITH CLDS AS ANY HTG QUICKLY DVLPS
FRESH SC. FCSTD SNDGS SHOW SOME EROSION OF THE MOISTURE OVER THE
NEXT 18 HRS BUT WITH LONG NGT AND LGT WINDS...VERY LTL TO MIX OUT
THE REMAINING MOISTURE. ALSO...SAT IMAGES SHOW A THICK DECK ALL
THE WAY BACK INTO OH.

OUTLOOK...

MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO THURS...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-THURS.

FRI...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM






000
FXUS61 KBGM 211748
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1248 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, INCLUDING
CHRISTMAS DAY, AND BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN SOME AREAS AT THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
MIX TO SNOW SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS DAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THIS STORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER DAY OF CLOUDS WHICH WILL MAKE DAY 14 IN A ROW. OPTIMISTIC
MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM JUST 24 HOURS AGO ARE MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC
FOR SUN CHANCES TODAY. 0Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A THIN LAYER
OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION, WHICH HAS BEEN A
BROKEN RECORD FOR US NOW. AT BEST WE MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER, NOT A TOTAL CLEAR OUT, LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE FAR
WEST AND SOUTH. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS, EXTENSIVE
CLOUDS BACK TO OUR WEST THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN AND OHIO DO NOT. A
STRAY FLURRY OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT OVERALL MOST
WILL REMAIN DRY. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AGAIN TODAY, AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 5-6 DEGREES WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES RIGHT NOW.

MONDAY MAY BE OUR MOST REALISTIC SHOT AT SUNSHINE AS THE FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY, AND THIS MAY HELP TO LIFT ANY LOW CLOUDS TO
OUR NORTH. RIGHT NOW OBS SUPPORT THIS BACK OVER KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE. AS OUR MID WEEK STORM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE COUNTRY, HOPEFULLY WE CAN FINALLY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
CLOUDS BEFORE WE TURN UNSETTLED AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
PERIOD WILL FEATURE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND A SLOWLY
YIELDING RIDGE AT THE SURFACE. WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES
LATE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR
ALOFT...PRECIPITATION APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE EXCLUSIVELY LIQUID.
FOR SOME LOCATIONS /MAINLY EASTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA/ THAT MAY
PRESENT A VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBILITY MONDAY NIGHT- EARLY
TUESDAY.

ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS STILL BRING LIGHT QPF INTO THE AREA WITH
THAT FIRST WAVE MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY TUESDAY...YET NAM AND
ESPECIALLY GFS HAVE VERY LITTLE. EITHER WAY...IT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT PRECIP THAT WILL HAVE TO FIGHT SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM STRONG HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES...AND DRY MID LEVELS. A LOT OF IT MAY TURN OUT
TO BE VIRGA. EASTERLY FLOW AGAINST THE POCONOS-CATSKILLS WILL MEAN
LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BEST THERE DUE TO UPSLOPING...OR AT
LEAST DRIZZLE...WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR MAJORITY OF THE
AREA. THE COLD AIR DAMMING VIA EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO MEAN LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE ON THE FRONT END OF THE WAVE UNTIL
TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING. THE USUAL SUSPECTS
WILL BE PRONE TO A VERY LIGHT ICING...POCONOS-CATSKILLS-MOHAWK
VALLEY-TUG HILL...BUT OF COURSE THAT WILL DEPEND ON ACTUAL
PRECIPITATION WHICH ITSELF IS NOT CERTAIN. MIDMORNING TUESDAY
ONWARD...ABOVE FREEZING FOR ENTIRE AREA AND THUS ONLY RAIN FOR
PRECIP TYPE.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GRADUALLY YIELDS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM INCREASINGLY MOIST SW-SSW FLOW ALONG
WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN. THUS RAIN CHANCES
AREAWIDE WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAWN
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

COLD FNT SWINGS THRU FRI NGT AND RETURNS THE AREA TO MORE TYPICAL
EARLY WINTER WX. CONTD CAA WILL GRADUALLY LWR TEMPS THRU THE PD
INCRSG THE CHANCE OF LE SNOW SHWRS. SHEARED FLOW ININTIALLY BHD
THE FNT WILL LIMIT THE AMT OF LE...WHILE THE DEEPER COLD AIR AITS
TO JUST BEYOND THE PD LATE SUN AND EARLY MON.

TEMPS WILL AVG NEAR NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

LTL CHG IN THE OUTLOOK THRU THE TAF PD AS THE LL MOISTURE CONTS TO
BE TRAPPED BENEATH THE PERSISTENT INV. SOME CLRG THAT WAS WELL
FCST BY THE NAM IS NOW FILLING WITH CLDS AS ANY HTG QUICKLY DVLPS
FRESH SC. FCSTD SNDGS SHOW SOME EROSION OF THE MOISTURE OVER THE
NEXT 18 HRS BUT WITH LONG NGT AND LGT WINDS...VERY LTL TO MIX OUT
THE REMAINING MOISTURE. ALSO...SAT IMAGES SHOW A THICK DECK ALL
THE WAY BACK INTO OH.

OUTLOOK...

MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO THURS...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-THURS.

FRI...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM






000
FXUS61 KBUF 211734
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1234 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER LASTING
INTO MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND PRODUCE RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR
WET SNOW SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
CONTINUING TO CAUSE LIGHT LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA...
RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT AREA OF STRATUS TRAPPED BENEATH A STEEP
LOW LEVEL INVERSION BASED AROUND 3K FEET. THIS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF
CLOUDS IN PLACE TODAY FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THE ONE
EXCEPTION HAS BEEN ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND GREATER ROCHESTER
AREA WHERE SOME BONUS SUNSHINE HAS BEEN FOUND. THIS IS NOW QUICKLY
FILLING IN WITH CUMULUS...AND EXPECT THE CU TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND
INTO A STRATO-CU DECK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EFFECTIVELY FILL IN
THE HOLE WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
AMPLIFY OVER THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS STRONG WEST TO
EAST ORIENTED JET OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL BACKING/INCREASE OF
LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA WHICH MAY SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE LOW
CLOUDS BY TONIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY CLOUDY PERIOD AS
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST.

THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN A SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE LAKE
PLAINS OF WESTERN NY WITH UPPER 20S ON SOME OF THE HILLS AND ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 20S
WITH LOWER 20S NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LIE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WHICH WILL PERSIST IN SPITE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE. ON MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT
INCREASING MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WILL REINFORCE
THE CLOUDY SKIES.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD
OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF A SHOWER ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK.
MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT BECOME FULLY SATURATED UNTIL CHRISTMAS EVE
MORNING SO THERE WILL BE A MOISTENING FROM ALOFT TO KEEP LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS FROM EVAPORATING ON THEIR WAY TO THE GROUND. BEST CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ESPECIALLY BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AND AVOID THE POSSIBILITY OF A FREEZING WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION.

THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND +10C. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THEN TEMPS PUSH WELL INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND WILL
STEADY OR CONTINUE TO RISE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHEST GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY CONTINUES TO BE
FOCUSED ON A STORM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES
AND SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THIS STORM.

ON CHRISTMAS EVE WARM MOIST AIR WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTH AHEAD
OF THIS STORM BRINGING RAIN AND VERY MILD TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. NAEFS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR
ONE INCH WHICH IS NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN A 30 YEAR PWAT CLIMO.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S CHRISTMAS EVE
SHOULD YIELD SOME MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THESE
SHOWERS MAY HELP TO DRAG DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A 50
KNOT 850MB JET STREAKING OVERHEAD.

A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
NEW YORK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL NEEDS
TO BE FINE TUNED AS THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS.
THIS FRONT WILL BE THE LEADING EDGE TO COOLER TEMPS. IT IS IMPORTANT
TO MENTION THAT WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THE
SOURCE REGION OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC BASED AND NOT ARCTIC
BASED SO THIS LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A REDUCED THREAT
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE
WARMER WITH TODAYS RUNS ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN -5C AND -8C. SURFACE
TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 30S ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND LOW 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LATEST FORECAST NOW REFLECTS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LAKE SHORES AND LOWER TERRAIN WITH SOME
LIMITED SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT
IS ALSO POSSIBLE PENDING AVAILABLE POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE.

ALTHOUGH THERE WAS A CONCERN OF HIGHER WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
THAT THE HIGHER WINDS ARE PREFRONTAL AND STILL ABOVE A FAIRLY STEEP
TEMPERATURE INVERSION. WINDS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT APPEAR TO BE
MORE WESTERLY AND WITH LESS MAGNITUDE...STILL POSSIBLE FOR A QUICK
BLAST OF GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 KNOTS ACCOMPANYING THE THE COLD FRONT.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. FURTHER OUT WE WILL BE WATCHING NEXT WEEKEND FOR
ANOTHER POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG WINDS AND MORE RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. THE THICKEST STRATUS THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH MVFR CIGS DOMINANT. SOME OF THE HIGHEST
HILLS WILL STILL SEE LOCAL IFR CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. FARTHER NORTH FROM KIAG TO KROC A NICE HOLE
OPENED UP EARLIER...BUT THIS IS RAPIDLY FILLING IN NOW WITH CUMULUS.
EXPECT THE CUMULUS FIELDS TO MATURE AND SPREAD OUT INTO A
STRATOCUMULUS DECK AND EFFECTIVELY FILL IN THE HOLE WITH MVFR CIGS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WEAK SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW STRATUS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS IN MOST
AREAS. LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
INCREASE. THE DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP TO ERODE THE
STRATUS DECK ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT AND
CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. STRATUS MAY LOCK IN LONGER ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND TUG HILL
REGION WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND FLAT WAVE ACTION. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME ON
MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON BOTH LAKES...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS
COOLER AIR PUSHES BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WCH
LONG TERM...SMITH/WCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...TMA





000
FXUS61 KBUF 211734
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1234 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER LASTING
INTO MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND PRODUCE RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR
WET SNOW SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
CONTINUING TO CAUSE LIGHT LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA...
RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT AREA OF STRATUS TRAPPED BENEATH A STEEP
LOW LEVEL INVERSION BASED AROUND 3K FEET. THIS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF
CLOUDS IN PLACE TODAY FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THE ONE
EXCEPTION HAS BEEN ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND GREATER ROCHESTER
AREA WHERE SOME BONUS SUNSHINE HAS BEEN FOUND. THIS IS NOW QUICKLY
FILLING IN WITH CUMULUS...AND EXPECT THE CU TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND
INTO A STRATO-CU DECK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EFFECTIVELY FILL IN
THE HOLE WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
AMPLIFY OVER THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS STRONG WEST TO
EAST ORIENTED JET OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL BACKING/INCREASE OF
LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA WHICH MAY SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE LOW
CLOUDS BY TONIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY CLOUDY PERIOD AS
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST.

THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN A SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE LAKE
PLAINS OF WESTERN NY WITH UPPER 20S ON SOME OF THE HILLS AND ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 20S
WITH LOWER 20S NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LIE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WHICH WILL PERSIST IN SPITE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE. ON MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT
INCREASING MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WILL REINFORCE
THE CLOUDY SKIES.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD
OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF A SHOWER ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK.
MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT BECOME FULLY SATURATED UNTIL CHRISTMAS EVE
MORNING SO THERE WILL BE A MOISTENING FROM ALOFT TO KEEP LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS FROM EVAPORATING ON THEIR WAY TO THE GROUND. BEST CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ESPECIALLY BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AND AVOID THE POSSIBILITY OF A FREEZING WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION.

THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND +10C. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THEN TEMPS PUSH WELL INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND WILL
STEADY OR CONTINUE TO RISE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHEST GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY CONTINUES TO BE
FOCUSED ON A STORM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES
AND SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THIS STORM.

ON CHRISTMAS EVE WARM MOIST AIR WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTH AHEAD
OF THIS STORM BRINGING RAIN AND VERY MILD TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. NAEFS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR
ONE INCH WHICH IS NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN A 30 YEAR PWAT CLIMO.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S CHRISTMAS EVE
SHOULD YIELD SOME MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THESE
SHOWERS MAY HELP TO DRAG DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A 50
KNOT 850MB JET STREAKING OVERHEAD.

A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
NEW YORK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL NEEDS
TO BE FINE TUNED AS THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS.
THIS FRONT WILL BE THE LEADING EDGE TO COOLER TEMPS. IT IS IMPORTANT
TO MENTION THAT WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THE
SOURCE REGION OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC BASED AND NOT ARCTIC
BASED SO THIS LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A REDUCED THREAT
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE
WARMER WITH TODAYS RUNS ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN -5C AND -8C. SURFACE
TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 30S ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND LOW 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LATEST FORECAST NOW REFLECTS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LAKE SHORES AND LOWER TERRAIN WITH SOME
LIMITED SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT
IS ALSO POSSIBLE PENDING AVAILABLE POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE.

ALTHOUGH THERE WAS A CONCERN OF HIGHER WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
THAT THE HIGHER WINDS ARE PREFRONTAL AND STILL ABOVE A FAIRLY STEEP
TEMPERATURE INVERSION. WINDS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT APPEAR TO BE
MORE WESTERLY AND WITH LESS MAGNITUDE...STILL POSSIBLE FOR A QUICK
BLAST OF GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 KNOTS ACCOMPANYING THE THE COLD FRONT.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. FURTHER OUT WE WILL BE WATCHING NEXT WEEKEND FOR
ANOTHER POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG WINDS AND MORE RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. THE THICKEST STRATUS THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH MVFR CIGS DOMINANT. SOME OF THE HIGHEST
HILLS WILL STILL SEE LOCAL IFR CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. FARTHER NORTH FROM KIAG TO KROC A NICE HOLE
OPENED UP EARLIER...BUT THIS IS RAPIDLY FILLING IN NOW WITH CUMULUS.
EXPECT THE CUMULUS FIELDS TO MATURE AND SPREAD OUT INTO A
STRATOCUMULUS DECK AND EFFECTIVELY FILL IN THE HOLE WITH MVFR CIGS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WEAK SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW STRATUS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS IN MOST
AREAS. LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
INCREASE. THE DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP TO ERODE THE
STRATUS DECK ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT AND
CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. STRATUS MAY LOCK IN LONGER ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND TUG HILL
REGION WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND FLAT WAVE ACTION. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME ON
MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON BOTH LAKES...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS
COOLER AIR PUSHES BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WCH
LONG TERM...SMITH/WCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...TMA





000
FXUS61 KBUF 211734
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1234 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER LASTING
INTO MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND PRODUCE RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR
WET SNOW SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
CONTINUING TO CAUSE LIGHT LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA...
RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT AREA OF STRATUS TRAPPED BENEATH A STEEP
LOW LEVEL INVERSION BASED AROUND 3K FEET. THIS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF
CLOUDS IN PLACE TODAY FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THE ONE
EXCEPTION HAS BEEN ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND GREATER ROCHESTER
AREA WHERE SOME BONUS SUNSHINE HAS BEEN FOUND. THIS IS NOW QUICKLY
FILLING IN WITH CUMULUS...AND EXPECT THE CU TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND
INTO A STRATO-CU DECK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EFFECTIVELY FILL IN
THE HOLE WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
AMPLIFY OVER THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS STRONG WEST TO
EAST ORIENTED JET OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL BACKING/INCREASE OF
LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA WHICH MAY SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE LOW
CLOUDS BY TONIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY CLOUDY PERIOD AS
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST.

THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN A SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE LAKE
PLAINS OF WESTERN NY WITH UPPER 20S ON SOME OF THE HILLS AND ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 20S
WITH LOWER 20S NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LIE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WHICH WILL PERSIST IN SPITE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE. ON MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT
INCREASING MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WILL REINFORCE
THE CLOUDY SKIES.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD
OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF A SHOWER ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK.
MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT BECOME FULLY SATURATED UNTIL CHRISTMAS EVE
MORNING SO THERE WILL BE A MOISTENING FROM ALOFT TO KEEP LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS FROM EVAPORATING ON THEIR WAY TO THE GROUND. BEST CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ESPECIALLY BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AND AVOID THE POSSIBILITY OF A FREEZING WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION.

THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND +10C. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THEN TEMPS PUSH WELL INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND WILL
STEADY OR CONTINUE TO RISE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHEST GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY CONTINUES TO BE
FOCUSED ON A STORM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES
AND SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THIS STORM.

ON CHRISTMAS EVE WARM MOIST AIR WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTH AHEAD
OF THIS STORM BRINGING RAIN AND VERY MILD TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. NAEFS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR
ONE INCH WHICH IS NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN A 30 YEAR PWAT CLIMO.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S CHRISTMAS EVE
SHOULD YIELD SOME MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THESE
SHOWERS MAY HELP TO DRAG DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A 50
KNOT 850MB JET STREAKING OVERHEAD.

A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
NEW YORK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL NEEDS
TO BE FINE TUNED AS THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS.
THIS FRONT WILL BE THE LEADING EDGE TO COOLER TEMPS. IT IS IMPORTANT
TO MENTION THAT WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THE
SOURCE REGION OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC BASED AND NOT ARCTIC
BASED SO THIS LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A REDUCED THREAT
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE
WARMER WITH TODAYS RUNS ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN -5C AND -8C. SURFACE
TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 30S ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND LOW 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LATEST FORECAST NOW REFLECTS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LAKE SHORES AND LOWER TERRAIN WITH SOME
LIMITED SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT
IS ALSO POSSIBLE PENDING AVAILABLE POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE.

ALTHOUGH THERE WAS A CONCERN OF HIGHER WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
THAT THE HIGHER WINDS ARE PREFRONTAL AND STILL ABOVE A FAIRLY STEEP
TEMPERATURE INVERSION. WINDS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT APPEAR TO BE
MORE WESTERLY AND WITH LESS MAGNITUDE...STILL POSSIBLE FOR A QUICK
BLAST OF GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 KNOTS ACCOMPANYING THE THE COLD FRONT.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. FURTHER OUT WE WILL BE WATCHING NEXT WEEKEND FOR
ANOTHER POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG WINDS AND MORE RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. THE THICKEST STRATUS THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH MVFR CIGS DOMINANT. SOME OF THE HIGHEST
HILLS WILL STILL SEE LOCAL IFR CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. FARTHER NORTH FROM KIAG TO KROC A NICE HOLE
OPENED UP EARLIER...BUT THIS IS RAPIDLY FILLING IN NOW WITH CUMULUS.
EXPECT THE CUMULUS FIELDS TO MATURE AND SPREAD OUT INTO A
STRATOCUMULUS DECK AND EFFECTIVELY FILL IN THE HOLE WITH MVFR CIGS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WEAK SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW STRATUS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS IN MOST
AREAS. LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
INCREASE. THE DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP TO ERODE THE
STRATUS DECK ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT AND
CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. STRATUS MAY LOCK IN LONGER ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND TUG HILL
REGION WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND FLAT WAVE ACTION. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME ON
MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON BOTH LAKES...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS
COOLER AIR PUSHES BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WCH
LONG TERM...SMITH/WCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...TMA





000
FXUS61 KBUF 211734
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1234 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER LASTING
INTO MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND PRODUCE RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR
WET SNOW SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
CONTINUING TO CAUSE LIGHT LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA...
RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT AREA OF STRATUS TRAPPED BENEATH A STEEP
LOW LEVEL INVERSION BASED AROUND 3K FEET. THIS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF
CLOUDS IN PLACE TODAY FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THE ONE
EXCEPTION HAS BEEN ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND GREATER ROCHESTER
AREA WHERE SOME BONUS SUNSHINE HAS BEEN FOUND. THIS IS NOW QUICKLY
FILLING IN WITH CUMULUS...AND EXPECT THE CU TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND
INTO A STRATO-CU DECK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EFFECTIVELY FILL IN
THE HOLE WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
AMPLIFY OVER THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS STRONG WEST TO
EAST ORIENTED JET OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL BACKING/INCREASE OF
LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA WHICH MAY SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE LOW
CLOUDS BY TONIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY CLOUDY PERIOD AS
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST.

THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN A SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE LAKE
PLAINS OF WESTERN NY WITH UPPER 20S ON SOME OF THE HILLS AND ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 20S
WITH LOWER 20S NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LIE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WHICH WILL PERSIST IN SPITE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE. ON MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT
INCREASING MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WILL REINFORCE
THE CLOUDY SKIES.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD
OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF A SHOWER ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK.
MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT BECOME FULLY SATURATED UNTIL CHRISTMAS EVE
MORNING SO THERE WILL BE A MOISTENING FROM ALOFT TO KEEP LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS FROM EVAPORATING ON THEIR WAY TO THE GROUND. BEST CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ESPECIALLY BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AND AVOID THE POSSIBILITY OF A FREEZING WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION.

THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND +10C. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THEN TEMPS PUSH WELL INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND WILL
STEADY OR CONTINUE TO RISE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHEST GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY CONTINUES TO BE
FOCUSED ON A STORM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES
AND SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THIS STORM.

ON CHRISTMAS EVE WARM MOIST AIR WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTH AHEAD
OF THIS STORM BRINGING RAIN AND VERY MILD TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. NAEFS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR
ONE INCH WHICH IS NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN A 30 YEAR PWAT CLIMO.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S CHRISTMAS EVE
SHOULD YIELD SOME MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THESE
SHOWERS MAY HELP TO DRAG DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A 50
KNOT 850MB JET STREAKING OVERHEAD.

A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
NEW YORK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL NEEDS
TO BE FINE TUNED AS THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS.
THIS FRONT WILL BE THE LEADING EDGE TO COOLER TEMPS. IT IS IMPORTANT
TO MENTION THAT WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THE
SOURCE REGION OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC BASED AND NOT ARCTIC
BASED SO THIS LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A REDUCED THREAT
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE
WARMER WITH TODAYS RUNS ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN -5C AND -8C. SURFACE
TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 30S ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND LOW 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LATEST FORECAST NOW REFLECTS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LAKE SHORES AND LOWER TERRAIN WITH SOME
LIMITED SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT
IS ALSO POSSIBLE PENDING AVAILABLE POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE.

ALTHOUGH THERE WAS A CONCERN OF HIGHER WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
THAT THE HIGHER WINDS ARE PREFRONTAL AND STILL ABOVE A FAIRLY STEEP
TEMPERATURE INVERSION. WINDS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT APPEAR TO BE
MORE WESTERLY AND WITH LESS MAGNITUDE...STILL POSSIBLE FOR A QUICK
BLAST OF GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 KNOTS ACCOMPANYING THE THE COLD FRONT.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. FURTHER OUT WE WILL BE WATCHING NEXT WEEKEND FOR
ANOTHER POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG WINDS AND MORE RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. THE THICKEST STRATUS THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH MVFR CIGS DOMINANT. SOME OF THE HIGHEST
HILLS WILL STILL SEE LOCAL IFR CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. FARTHER NORTH FROM KIAG TO KROC A NICE HOLE
OPENED UP EARLIER...BUT THIS IS RAPIDLY FILLING IN NOW WITH CUMULUS.
EXPECT THE CUMULUS FIELDS TO MATURE AND SPREAD OUT INTO A
STRATOCUMULUS DECK AND EFFECTIVELY FILL IN THE HOLE WITH MVFR CIGS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WEAK SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW STRATUS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS IN MOST
AREAS. LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
INCREASE. THE DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP TO ERODE THE
STRATUS DECK ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT AND
CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. STRATUS MAY LOCK IN LONGER ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND TUG HILL
REGION WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND FLAT WAVE ACTION. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME ON
MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON BOTH LAKES...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS
COOLER AIR PUSHES BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WCH
LONG TERM...SMITH/WCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...TMA





000
FXUS61 KBTV 211730
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1230 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE THIS MORNING
WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF VERMONT WITH A
DUSTING TO TWO INCHES EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER WILL EXIST OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE
PATTERN WILL CHANGE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS EVE
DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS UPDATE WITH
MAIN FOCUS ON LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING TO FALL ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SMALL UPPER
CIRCULATION OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE HAVING AN IMPACT ON OUR AREA THIS
MORNING WITH LIGHT SNOW FALLING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT...
GENERALLY SOUTH OF MONTPELIER. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE UPPER CIRCULATION MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST TO HAVE
LESS OF AN IMPACT. HAVE ADDED LIGHT SNOW TO THE FORECAST FROM
SOUTHERN ADDISON AND SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTIES SOUTH INTO RUTLAND
AND WINDSOR COUNTIES. LOOKING AT A DUSTING TO TWO INCHES IN THIS
AREA WITH JUST CLOUDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...QUIET DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CLOUDS ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE AREA. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME CLEARING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH...WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 30S. WILL SEE SOME CLEARING MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM. VERY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND CLOUDS INCREASE...A MILD
DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 40S IN PARTS OF OUR AREA.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AS A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EST SUNDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA
OF RAINY AND POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY INTO
THE MORNING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS DAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS ACROSS CANADIAN MARITIMES AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ALOFT WILL RESULT IN INCREASED
FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN TO BECOME
RATHER WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. COULD BE A FEW POCKETS OF
SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM...BUT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN.

CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE FURTHER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST. STRONG SHORTWAVE
ROUNDS BASE OF THE TROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST.
DEEP AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
850 MB WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD
INDICATED...AND FLOW NOW PROJECTED TO BE MORE SOUTHERLY THAN
SOUTHEAST. STILL LOOKING AT A 40-50 KT 850 MB JET HOWEVER. BUT
WITH LESS OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING WOULD NOT BE
QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT. BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HIGH
WINDS CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PERHAPS ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM...WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL
AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
AMOUNTS WILL VARY A BIT DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS. HIGHEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG SOUTH FACING
SLOPES OF SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
OVER NORTHWEST VERMONT AND FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK. WITH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...AND
LITTLE DROP OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND
MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THE SNOWMELT
COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN SMALL STREAMS. RIGHT NOW
RIVER GAUGES ARE SHOWING RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE LOW...SO WHILE
SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
RIVER FLOODING ISSUES. RAIN CONTINUES EARLY ON CHRISTMAS
DAY...THEN SOME DRYING EXPECTED WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT DURING
THE MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AS COLDER AIR RETURNS. TEMPS IN VALLEYS REMAIN MILD THOUGH
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH READINGS IN THE 40S.

DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS
A CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE RESULT BEING LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND SOME PATCHY FOG AT TIMES. IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AT
MOST SITES EXCEPT RUT/MPV WHERE MVFR/VFR EXPECTED. DURING THE DAY
TODAY...AREAS WITH IFR IMPROVE TO MVFR...AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY
SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR A TIME. MORE OF THE SAME FOR TONIGHT
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS
OF IFR. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MON-00Z TUE...LOW CLOUDS WITH MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-18Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 211730
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1230 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE THIS MORNING
WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF VERMONT WITH A
DUSTING TO TWO INCHES EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER WILL EXIST OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE
PATTERN WILL CHANGE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS EVE
DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS UPDATE WITH
MAIN FOCUS ON LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING TO FALL ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SMALL UPPER
CIRCULATION OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE HAVING AN IMPACT ON OUR AREA THIS
MORNING WITH LIGHT SNOW FALLING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT...
GENERALLY SOUTH OF MONTPELIER. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE UPPER CIRCULATION MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST TO HAVE
LESS OF AN IMPACT. HAVE ADDED LIGHT SNOW TO THE FORECAST FROM
SOUTHERN ADDISON AND SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTIES SOUTH INTO RUTLAND
AND WINDSOR COUNTIES. LOOKING AT A DUSTING TO TWO INCHES IN THIS
AREA WITH JUST CLOUDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...QUIET DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CLOUDS ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE AREA. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME CLEARING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH...WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 30S. WILL SEE SOME CLEARING MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM. VERY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND CLOUDS INCREASE...A MILD
DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 40S IN PARTS OF OUR AREA.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AS A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EST SUNDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA
OF RAINY AND POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY INTO
THE MORNING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS DAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS ACROSS CANADIAN MARITIMES AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ALOFT WILL RESULT IN INCREASED
FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN TO BECOME
RATHER WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. COULD BE A FEW POCKETS OF
SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM...BUT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN.

CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE FURTHER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST. STRONG SHORTWAVE
ROUNDS BASE OF THE TROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST.
DEEP AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
850 MB WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD
INDICATED...AND FLOW NOW PROJECTED TO BE MORE SOUTHERLY THAN
SOUTHEAST. STILL LOOKING AT A 40-50 KT 850 MB JET HOWEVER. BUT
WITH LESS OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING WOULD NOT BE
QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT. BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HIGH
WINDS CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PERHAPS ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM...WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL
AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
AMOUNTS WILL VARY A BIT DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS. HIGHEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG SOUTH FACING
SLOPES OF SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
OVER NORTHWEST VERMONT AND FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK. WITH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...AND
LITTLE DROP OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND
MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THE SNOWMELT
COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN SMALL STREAMS. RIGHT NOW
RIVER GAUGES ARE SHOWING RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE LOW...SO WHILE
SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
RIVER FLOODING ISSUES. RAIN CONTINUES EARLY ON CHRISTMAS
DAY...THEN SOME DRYING EXPECTED WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT DURING
THE MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AS COLDER AIR RETURNS. TEMPS IN VALLEYS REMAIN MILD THOUGH
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH READINGS IN THE 40S.

DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS
A CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE RESULT BEING LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND SOME PATCHY FOG AT TIMES. IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AT
MOST SITES EXCEPT RUT/MPV WHERE MVFR/VFR EXPECTED. DURING THE DAY
TODAY...AREAS WITH IFR IMPROVE TO MVFR...AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY
SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR A TIME. MORE OF THE SAME FOR TONIGHT
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS
OF IFR. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MON-00Z TUE...LOW CLOUDS WITH MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-18Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KALY 211724
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1224 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...
BRINGING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH SOME LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT...AND A PERIOD OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST...VERY LIGHT SNOW GRAINS HAVE STARTED TO SLIDE
EAST THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ACCUMS HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT DUE
TO THE GRAINY NATURE...GENERALLY ONLY ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS.

A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH SOME MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRACKING INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS WILL KEEP FA MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. HIGHS
AROUND 30 TO THE MID 30S...SOME 20S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME
BRIEF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP MUCH. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
WINDS...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WARM ADVECTION SLOWLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING. LIGHT
WIND FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
MIX OUT CLOUD COVER...BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD HELP ANY CLEARING
TO THE SOUTH SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH...UNTIL THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST SPREAD OVER
THE REGION. STILL...WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER...HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
30S.

SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AS
DOES WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED IN SE CANADA...SO SURFACE FLOW SHOULD BE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. AGEOSTROPHIC LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST SUGGEST THAT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
IN THE REGION COULD HELP TEMPERATURES FALL TO WET BULB LEVELS...
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SNOW AND/OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IN SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT ION THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...JUST ABOVE FREEZING
IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...BUT POTENTIALLY CLOSE TO FREEZING
IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. NO WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES YET...WITH
JUST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN BUT WILL INCLUDE IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK BECAUSE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IF FREEZING RAIN
BECOMES LIKELY IN SOME AREAS AS THE EVENT NEARS.

ALL PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY AND SLOWLY INCREASES
IN COVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHEN. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...BUT
AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER EXPECTED FROM CHRISTMAS EVE TO
CHRISTMAS DAY...AS A STORM STORM SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLE MULTIPLE
HAZARDS AFFECTS THE REGION. THE MAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS SYSTEM.

BY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY OUR REGION SHOULD BE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED IN A
WARM SECTOR ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. A DEEP
TROUGH WILL BE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...MIDWEST AND TENN VALLEY REGIONS...WITH A RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BOTH IN THE LOW LEVELS AND ALOFT WILL BE IN
PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DESPITE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
LOWER TO MID 50S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST.

SOUTHERLY WIND FIELD WILL BE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW. HOW STRONG WIND SPEEDS END UP
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL DEPEND ON DEGREE OF MIXING. SURGES OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH PWATS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO +4 TO +5 STDEV BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH SNOW MELT IN HIGHER TERRAIN
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR DETAILS.

THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING...TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE AREA...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT THAT LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
AND DEEPEN IN THE PROCESS. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW LOOKS
TO CROSS OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SOMETIME EARLY CHRISTMAS
MORNING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BURST
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. STEADY RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF TO
SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CHRISTMAS
MORNING. AS THE LOW DEEPENS FURTHER ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
CHRISTMAS DAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS COULD BE
MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WITH BETTER MIXING. HIGH TEMPS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOPING BRISK WESTERLY WIND.

OTHER THAN A FEW UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL TURN MUCH COLDER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT WILL STILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAKER DISTURBANCE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
MAY BRING SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH LIGHT QPF.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND A MOIST FLOW ALOFT
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...HAS ALLOWED AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW/SNOW
GRAINS TO OCCUR AT THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT
THIS LIGHT SNOW TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM NW TO
SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BEFORE IT DOES...MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT THROUGH
AROUND 20Z/SUN AT KPOU AND KPSF. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE SLIGHTLY
INTO THE MVFR RANGE AFTER THE SNOW TAPERS OFF.

FOR TONIGHT...A CONTINUED STREAM OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE TAF SITES. THIS MAY ALLOW ADDITIONAL PATCHY VERY
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW GRAINS TO REDEVELOP. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY
THAT SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURS...ESP AT KPSF AND KPOU AFTER
03Z-06Z/MON. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SNOW SHOWERS...BUT
AGAIN...OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO LOW MVFR AND IFR THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR PERSISTENT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT KPSF...AND KPOU.

ON MONDAY...LINGERING PATCHY LIGHT SNOW GRAINS AND/OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH BETWEEN 15Z-18Z/MON.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY TOWARD OR AFTER 18Z/MON.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...FROM THE N TO NE AT LESS THAN 8 KT THROUGH
18Z/MON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KOKX 211525
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1025 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING NEARBY. HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AS IT
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE ON CHRISTMAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL THEN AFFECT THE
REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ZONES CONTINUES TO ACT AS A
FOCUS FOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...AND LIFT IS PROVIDED ALOFT AS THE
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH. PCPN TYPE MAINLY SNOW WITH SUFFICIENT
ICE NUCLEI LIKELY PRESENT...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS ACROSS
EASTERN LONG ISLAND COMPLICATE THE FORECAST. PROBABLY A MIXTURE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW THERE...PROBABLY EVEN MOSTLY OR ALL RAIN OVER
THE PARTS OF THE FORKS REGION. IN SHORT...TRACE TO HALF INCH OF
SNOW CURRENTLY FORECAST OVER LONG ISLAND...WITH UP TO AROUND AN
INCH ACROSS PARTS OF SE CT. MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA COULD GET
A FLURRY OR TWO THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MAINLY STAY IN THE 30S...EXCEPT FOR THOSE
AFOREMENTIONED EASTERN LOCALES OF THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LIFT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXIT EAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WEST.
WILL GO WITH SCT FLURRIES OVER LI AND CT...AND PCPN TYPE OF
SPRINKLES ALSO PROBABLY PRESENT EARLY IN THE EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL SECTIONS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO HEAD NORTH. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW
LEVEL WINDS HERE VEER TO THE EAST AND AID LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE CENTER OF THE
LOW WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN RESULT...BUT RESERVED FOR THE AFTERNOON.

THE LOW CENTER WEAKENS AS IT HEADS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW STILL STRENGTHENS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STILL INCREASES ON AN ENE FLOW...AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY. CHC POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT RAIN FOR MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...FOR
SOME NW SECTIONS...MODELS SHOWING A WARM NOSE ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR
A CHANCE OF SLEET DURING THE EVENING...THEN POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN
AS THE WARMEST PART OF THE NOSE EXCEEDS 3C AND SURFACE TEMPS HOVER
AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...BUT THE
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE VICINITY. ECMWF OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY WETTER FOR TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS CONSISTENTLY
DRIER...AND THE NAM SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN DEPENDING ON LOCATION. WILL
CAP POPS AT 50% AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
FREEZING RAIN STILL POSSIBLE EARLY ON IN THE MORNING FOR THE FAR NW
PORTION OF THE CWA...OTHERWISE...LIGHT RAIN. RAIN THEN BECOMES MORE
LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS US CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.
MODELS SHOW A STRONG PRIMARY LOW CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. A
WEAKER SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER OR TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS IN
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BEFORE PASSING NORTH OF US WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WEDS/WEDS EVENING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...SO BY CHRISTMAS MORNING...SHOWERS STILL LIKELY EARLY ON FOR
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA...WITH MAINLY LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. BY NOON...LIKELY DRY EVERYWHERE.

BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR WEDS THRU THURS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES
THROUGH THE EASTERN ZONES WEDS AFTN/EVE...BUT STRONG GUSTS WILL
PROBABLY HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN THROUGH AN INVERSION.
STRONGER GUSTS MAY BE REALIZED DURING THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COURTESY OF BETTER MIXING. LOOKS LIKE WE FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA HOWEVER. WILL NEED TO KEEP AND EYE ON THIS TO SEE IF THE
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE. HIGHS ON WEDS IN WELL INTO THE 50S...AND WITH A MODERATE
WSW FLOW AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS COOLER
TEMPS...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMALS. THEN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER
INLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BRIEF IFR VSBYS IN -SN ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. FOR EASTERN TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH CIGS BECOMING VFR WITH SOME
GUIDANCE SUPPORTING MVFR CONDITIONS REMAINING THROUGH THIS AFT.
WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR TRENDS.

MVFR CIGS RETURN TO THE TERMINALS AFTER 00Z MONDAY.

NW-N AT 5-8 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME LGT/VRB AGAIN TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E FLOW. RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT.
.TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY IN RAIN. E WINDS
10-20 KT...BECOMING SE.
.WEDNESDAY...HIGH IMPACT EVENT BECOMING LIKELY. IFR CONDS WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND SE WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS. WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.THURSDAY...SUB-VFR CONDS IN THE MORNING IN RAIN SHOWERS. VFR
CONDS BY AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS NORTH OF THE WATERS. NORTH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
ALONG WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN OR 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL
OTHER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...WITH SEAS ALSO
REMAINING BELOW 5 FT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA
WATERS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. SMALL CRAFT WIND
AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND ACROSS ALL THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. THEN IN THE COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY WIND GUSTS WILL BE GALE FORCE ACROSS
ALL THE WATERS AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING
TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LATER WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD TOTAL 1
TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC/PW
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC/DW
AVIATION...MPS/DW
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC







000
FXUS61 KOKX 211525
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1025 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING NEARBY. HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AS IT
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE ON CHRISTMAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL THEN AFFECT THE
REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ZONES CONTINUES TO ACT AS A
FOCUS FOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...AND LIFT IS PROVIDED ALOFT AS THE
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH. PCPN TYPE MAINLY SNOW WITH SUFFICIENT
ICE NUCLEI LIKELY PRESENT...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS ACROSS
EASTERN LONG ISLAND COMPLICATE THE FORECAST. PROBABLY A MIXTURE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW THERE...PROBABLY EVEN MOSTLY OR ALL RAIN OVER
THE PARTS OF THE FORKS REGION. IN SHORT...TRACE TO HALF INCH OF
SNOW CURRENTLY FORECAST OVER LONG ISLAND...WITH UP TO AROUND AN
INCH ACROSS PARTS OF SE CT. MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA COULD GET
A FLURRY OR TWO THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MAINLY STAY IN THE 30S...EXCEPT FOR THOSE
AFOREMENTIONED EASTERN LOCALES OF THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LIFT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXIT EAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WEST.
WILL GO WITH SCT FLURRIES OVER LI AND CT...AND PCPN TYPE OF
SPRINKLES ALSO PROBABLY PRESENT EARLY IN THE EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL SECTIONS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO HEAD NORTH. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW
LEVEL WINDS HERE VEER TO THE EAST AND AID LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE CENTER OF THE
LOW WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN RESULT...BUT RESERVED FOR THE AFTERNOON.

THE LOW CENTER WEAKENS AS IT HEADS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW STILL STRENGTHENS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STILL INCREASES ON AN ENE FLOW...AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY. CHC POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT RAIN FOR MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...FOR
SOME NW SECTIONS...MODELS SHOWING A WARM NOSE ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR
A CHANCE OF SLEET DURING THE EVENING...THEN POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN
AS THE WARMEST PART OF THE NOSE EXCEEDS 3C AND SURFACE TEMPS HOVER
AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...BUT THE
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE VICINITY. ECMWF OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY WETTER FOR TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS CONSISTENTLY
DRIER...AND THE NAM SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN DEPENDING ON LOCATION. WILL
CAP POPS AT 50% AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
FREEZING RAIN STILL POSSIBLE EARLY ON IN THE MORNING FOR THE FAR NW
PORTION OF THE CWA...OTHERWISE...LIGHT RAIN. RAIN THEN BECOMES MORE
LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS US CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.
MODELS SHOW A STRONG PRIMARY LOW CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. A
WEAKER SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER OR TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS IN
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BEFORE PASSING NORTH OF US WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WEDS/WEDS EVENING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...SO BY CHRISTMAS MORNING...SHOWERS STILL LIKELY EARLY ON FOR
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA...WITH MAINLY LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. BY NOON...LIKELY DRY EVERYWHERE.

BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR WEDS THRU THURS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES
THROUGH THE EASTERN ZONES WEDS AFTN/EVE...BUT STRONG GUSTS WILL
PROBABLY HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN THROUGH AN INVERSION.
STRONGER GUSTS MAY BE REALIZED DURING THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COURTESY OF BETTER MIXING. LOOKS LIKE WE FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA HOWEVER. WILL NEED TO KEEP AND EYE ON THIS TO SEE IF THE
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE. HIGHS ON WEDS IN WELL INTO THE 50S...AND WITH A MODERATE
WSW FLOW AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS COOLER
TEMPS...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMALS. THEN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER
INLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BRIEF IFR VSBYS IN -SN ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. FOR EASTERN TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH CIGS BECOMING VFR WITH SOME
GUIDANCE SUPPORTING MVFR CONDITIONS REMAINING THROUGH THIS AFT.
WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR TRENDS.

MVFR CIGS RETURN TO THE TERMINALS AFTER 00Z MONDAY.

NW-N AT 5-8 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME LGT/VRB AGAIN TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E FLOW. RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT.
.TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY IN RAIN. E WINDS
10-20 KT...BECOMING SE.
.WEDNESDAY...HIGH IMPACT EVENT BECOMING LIKELY. IFR CONDS WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND SE WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS. WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.THURSDAY...SUB-VFR CONDS IN THE MORNING IN RAIN SHOWERS. VFR
CONDS BY AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS NORTH OF THE WATERS. NORTH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
ALONG WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN OR 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL
OTHER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...WITH SEAS ALSO
REMAINING BELOW 5 FT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA
WATERS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. SMALL CRAFT WIND
AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND ACROSS ALL THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. THEN IN THE COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY WIND GUSTS WILL BE GALE FORCE ACROSS
ALL THE WATERS AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING
TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LATER WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD TOTAL 1
TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC/PW
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC/DW
AVIATION...MPS/DW
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC






000
FXUS61 KALY 211507
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1007 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...
BRINGING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH SOME LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT...AND A PERIOD OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM EST...VERY LIGHT SNOW GRAINS HAVE SPREAD NORTH AND WEST
INTO THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION...AND REMAIN FOR AREAS TO THE S
AND E. ACCUMS HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT DUE TO THE GRAINY
NATURE...GENERALLY ONLY ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH AND WEST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...COMBINED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO
THE SOUTH...SHOULD KEEP LIGHT SNOW GRAINS/FLURRIES ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST NOON BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM NW TO SE.
AGAIN...ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE A COATING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.

DESPITE HOW LIGHT THE SNOW IS...HAVE HAD REPORTS OF SLIPPERY
TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY EARLIER THIS
MORNING. THIS MAY ALSO BE THE CASE FURTHER N AND W INTO THE
CAPITAL REGION...SO HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
THROUGH NOON TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION DESCRIBES THE
SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE SITUATION...

LITTLE LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SEEN ON KOKX RADAR JUST SOUTH OF
EASTERN LONG ISLAND...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK UPPER ENERGY
TRACKING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRACKING INTO OUR
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT SNOW HAS SPREAD INLAND INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
TACONICS... ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE IS SO SHALLOW AND AT SUCH LOW
LEVELS...AREA RADARS ARE NOT FULLY PICKING UP ON THE AREAL EXTENT
AND INTENSITY OF THE SNOW.

SOME GUIDANCE IS RESOLVING THESE SMALL SCALE FEATURES AND
SUGGESTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN TACONICS...NW CT AND THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES.
SO...HIGH CHANCES TO LIKELY IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING IN
THOSE AREAS.

SOME LIGHT SNOW GRAINS/FLURRIES EVEN INTO THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH CHANCES FOR
BRIEF INTERVALS OF LIGHT SNOW IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN TACONICS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. WITH ALL THE CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE DAY... HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE. HIGHS AROUND 30 TO THE MID 30S...SOME 20S IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME
BRIEF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP MUCH. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
WINDS...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WARM ADVECTION SLOWLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING. LIGHT
WIND FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
MIX OUT CLOUD COVER...BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD HELP ANY CLEARING
TO THE SOUTH SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH...UNTIL THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST SPREAD OVER
THE REGION. STILL...WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER...HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
30S.

SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AS
DOES WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED IN SE CANADA...SO SURFACE FLOW SHOULD BE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. AGEOSTROPHIC LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST SUGGEST THAT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
IN THE REGION COULD HELP TEMPERATURES FALL TO WET BULB LEVELS...
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SNOW AND/OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IN SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT ION THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...JUST ABOVE FREEZING
IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...BUT POTENTIALLY CLOSE TO FREEZING
IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. NO WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES YET...WITH
JUST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN BUT WILL INCLUDE IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK BECAUSE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IF FREEZING RAIN
BECOMES LIKELY IN SOME AREAS AS THE EVENT NEARS.

ALL PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY AND SLOWLY INCREASES
IN COVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHEN. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...BUT
AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER EXPECTED FROM CHRISTMAS EVE TO
CHRISTMAS DAY...AS A STORM STORM SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLE MULTIPLE
HAZARDS AFFECTS THE REGION. THE MAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS SYSTEM.

BY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY OUR REGION SHOULD BE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED IN A
WARM SECTOR ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. A DEEP
TROUGH WILL BE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...MIDWEST AND TENN VALLEY REGIONS...WITH A RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BOTH IN THE LOW LEVELS AND ALOFT WILL BE IN
PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DESPITE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
LOWER TO MID 50S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST.

SOUTHERLY WIND FIELD WILL BE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW. HOW STRONG WIND SPEEDS END UP
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL DEPEND ON DEGREE OF MIXING. SURGES OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH PWATS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO +4 TO +5 STDEV BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH SNOW MELT IN HIGHER TERRAIN
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR DETAILS.

THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING...TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE AREA...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT THAT LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
AND DEEPEN IN THE PROCESS. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW LOOKS
TO CROSS OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SOMETIME EARLY CHRISTMAS
MORNING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BURST
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. STEADY RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF TO
SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CHRISTMAS
MORNING. AS THE LOW DEEPENS FURTHER ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
CHRISTMAS DAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS COULD BE
MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WITH BETTER MIXING. HIGH TEMPS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOPING BRISK WESTERLY WIND.

OTHER THAN A FEW UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL TURN MUCH COLDER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT WILL STILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAKER DISTURBANCE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
MAY BRING SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH LIGHT QPF.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TONIGHT.

SOLID BATCH OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH CIGS IN MVFR
RANGE. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO BRUSH THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 16Z-18Z FOR KALB/KPOU/KPSF
WITH MVFR VSBY/CIGS. LESS MOISTURE ANTICIPATED FARTHER NORTH
AROUND KGFL...SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH THERE. CIGS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO VFR RANGE AFTER 18Z...EXCEPT FOR KPSF WHERE MVFR CIGS
SHOULD PREVAIL. CLOUDS MAY TEND TO BREAK UP TOWARDS EVENING...BUT
EXPECTING BKN CIGS TO PREVAIL.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY LESS THAN 5 KTS THROUGH PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 211507
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1007 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...
BRINGING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH SOME LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT...AND A PERIOD OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM EST...VERY LIGHT SNOW GRAINS HAVE SPREAD NORTH AND WEST
INTO THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION...AND REMAIN FOR AREAS TO THE S
AND E. ACCUMS HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT DUE TO THE GRAINY
NATURE...GENERALLY ONLY ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH AND WEST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...COMBINED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO
THE SOUTH...SHOULD KEEP LIGHT SNOW GRAINS/FLURRIES ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST NOON BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM NW TO SE.
AGAIN...ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE A COATING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.

DESPITE HOW LIGHT THE SNOW IS...HAVE HAD REPORTS OF SLIPPERY
TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY EARLIER THIS
MORNING. THIS MAY ALSO BE THE CASE FURTHER N AND W INTO THE
CAPITAL REGION...SO HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
THROUGH NOON TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION DESCRIBES THE
SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE SITUATION...

LITTLE LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SEEN ON KOKX RADAR JUST SOUTH OF
EASTERN LONG ISLAND...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK UPPER ENERGY
TRACKING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRACKING INTO OUR
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT SNOW HAS SPREAD INLAND INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
TACONICS... ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE IS SO SHALLOW AND AT SUCH LOW
LEVELS...AREA RADARS ARE NOT FULLY PICKING UP ON THE AREAL EXTENT
AND INTENSITY OF THE SNOW.

SOME GUIDANCE IS RESOLVING THESE SMALL SCALE FEATURES AND
SUGGESTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN TACONICS...NW CT AND THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES.
SO...HIGH CHANCES TO LIKELY IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING IN
THOSE AREAS.

SOME LIGHT SNOW GRAINS/FLURRIES EVEN INTO THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH CHANCES FOR
BRIEF INTERVALS OF LIGHT SNOW IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN TACONICS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. WITH ALL THE CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE DAY... HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE. HIGHS AROUND 30 TO THE MID 30S...SOME 20S IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME
BRIEF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP MUCH. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
WINDS...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WARM ADVECTION SLOWLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING. LIGHT
WIND FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
MIX OUT CLOUD COVER...BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD HELP ANY CLEARING
TO THE SOUTH SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH...UNTIL THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST SPREAD OVER
THE REGION. STILL...WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER...HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
30S.

SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AS
DOES WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED IN SE CANADA...SO SURFACE FLOW SHOULD BE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. AGEOSTROPHIC LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST SUGGEST THAT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
IN THE REGION COULD HELP TEMPERATURES FALL TO WET BULB LEVELS...
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SNOW AND/OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IN SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT ION THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...JUST ABOVE FREEZING
IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...BUT POTENTIALLY CLOSE TO FREEZING
IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. NO WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES YET...WITH
JUST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN BUT WILL INCLUDE IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK BECAUSE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IF FREEZING RAIN
BECOMES LIKELY IN SOME AREAS AS THE EVENT NEARS.

ALL PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY AND SLOWLY INCREASES
IN COVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHEN. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...BUT
AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER EXPECTED FROM CHRISTMAS EVE TO
CHRISTMAS DAY...AS A STORM STORM SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLE MULTIPLE
HAZARDS AFFECTS THE REGION. THE MAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS SYSTEM.

BY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY OUR REGION SHOULD BE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED IN A
WARM SECTOR ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. A DEEP
TROUGH WILL BE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...MIDWEST AND TENN VALLEY REGIONS...WITH A RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BOTH IN THE LOW LEVELS AND ALOFT WILL BE IN
PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DESPITE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
LOWER TO MID 50S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST.

SOUTHERLY WIND FIELD WILL BE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW. HOW STRONG WIND SPEEDS END UP
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL DEPEND ON DEGREE OF MIXING. SURGES OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH PWATS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO +4 TO +5 STDEV BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH SNOW MELT IN HIGHER TERRAIN
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR DETAILS.

THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING...TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE AREA...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT THAT LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
AND DEEPEN IN THE PROCESS. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW LOOKS
TO CROSS OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SOMETIME EARLY CHRISTMAS
MORNING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BURST
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. STEADY RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF TO
SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CHRISTMAS
MORNING. AS THE LOW DEEPENS FURTHER ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
CHRISTMAS DAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS COULD BE
MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WITH BETTER MIXING. HIGH TEMPS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOPING BRISK WESTERLY WIND.

OTHER THAN A FEW UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL TURN MUCH COLDER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT WILL STILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAKER DISTURBANCE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
MAY BRING SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH LIGHT QPF.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TONIGHT.

SOLID BATCH OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH CIGS IN MVFR
RANGE. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO BRUSH THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 16Z-18Z FOR KALB/KPOU/KPSF
WITH MVFR VSBY/CIGS. LESS MOISTURE ANTICIPATED FARTHER NORTH
AROUND KGFL...SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH THERE. CIGS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO VFR RANGE AFTER 18Z...EXCEPT FOR KPSF WHERE MVFR CIGS
SHOULD PREVAIL. CLOUDS MAY TEND TO BREAK UP TOWARDS EVENING...BUT
EXPECTING BKN CIGS TO PREVAIL.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY LESS THAN 5 KTS THROUGH PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 211449
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
949 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE THIS MORNING
WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF VERMONT WITH A
DUSTING TO TWO INCHES EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER WILL EXIST OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE
PATTERN WILL CHANGE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS EVE
DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 949 AM EST SUNDAY...SMALL UPPER CIRCULATION OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE HAVING AN IMPACT ON OUR AREA THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT
SNOW FALLING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT...GENERALLY SOUTH OF
MONTPELIER. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
UPPER CIRCULATION MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST TO HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT.
HAVE ADDED LIGHT SNOW TO THE FORECAST FROM SOUTHERN ADDISON AND
SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTIES SOUTH INTO RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES.
LOOKING AT A DUSTING TO TWO INCHES IN THIS AREA WITH JUST CLOUDS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...QUIET DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CLOUDS ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE AREA. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME CLEARING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH...WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 30S. WILL SEE SOME CLEARING MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM. VERY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND CLOUDS INCREASE...A MILD
DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 40S IN PARTS OF OUR AREA.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AS A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EST SUNDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA
OF RAINY AND POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY INTO
THE MORNING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS DAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS ACROSS CANADIAN MARITIMES AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ALOFT WILL RESULT IN INCREASED
FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN TO BECOME
RATHER WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. COULD BE A FEW POCKETS OF
SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM...BUT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN.

CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE FURTHER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST. STRONG SHORTWAVE
ROUNDS BASE OF THE TROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST.
DEEP AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
850 MB WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD
INDICATED...AND FLOW NOW PROJECTED TO BE MORE SOUTHERLY THAN
SOUTHEAST. STILL LOOKING AT A 40-50 KT 850 MB JET HOWEVER. BUT
WITH LESS OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING WOULD NOT BE
QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT. BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HIGH
WINDS CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PERHAPS ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM...WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL
AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
AMOUNTS WILL VARY A BIT DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS. HIGHEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG SOUTH FACING
SLOPES OF SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
OVER NORTHWEST VERMONT AND FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK. WITH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...AND
LITTLE DROP OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND
MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THE SNOWMELT
COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN SMALL STREAMS. RIGHT NOW
RIVER GAUGES ARE SHOWING RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE LOW...SO WHILE
SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
RIVER FLOODING ISSUES. RAIN CONTINUES EARLY ON CHRISTMAS
DAY...THEN SOME DRYING EXPECTED WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT DURING
THE MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AS COLDER AIR RETURNS. TEMPS IN VALLEYS REMAIN MILD THOUGH
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH READINGS IN THE 40S.

DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS
A CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE RESULT BEING LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND SOME PATCHY FOG AT TIMES. IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AT
MOST SITES EXCEPT RUT/MPV WHERE MVFR/VFR EXPECTED. DURING THE DAY
TODAY...AREAS WITH IFR IMPROVE TO MVFR...AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY
SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR A TIME. MORE OF THE SAME FOR TONIGHT
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS
OF IFR. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MON-00Z TUE...LOW CLOUDS WITH MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-18Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 211449
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
949 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE THIS MORNING
WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF VERMONT WITH A
DUSTING TO TWO INCHES EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER WILL EXIST OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE
PATTERN WILL CHANGE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS EVE
DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 949 AM EST SUNDAY...SMALL UPPER CIRCULATION OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE HAVING AN IMPACT ON OUR AREA THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT
SNOW FALLING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT...GENERALLY SOUTH OF
MONTPELIER. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
UPPER CIRCULATION MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST TO HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT.
HAVE ADDED LIGHT SNOW TO THE FORECAST FROM SOUTHERN ADDISON AND
SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTIES SOUTH INTO RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES.
LOOKING AT A DUSTING TO TWO INCHES IN THIS AREA WITH JUST CLOUDS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...QUIET DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CLOUDS ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE AREA. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME CLEARING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH...WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 30S. WILL SEE SOME CLEARING MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM. VERY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND CLOUDS INCREASE...A MILD
DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 40S IN PARTS OF OUR AREA.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AS A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EST SUNDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA
OF RAINY AND POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY INTO
THE MORNING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS DAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS ACROSS CANADIAN MARITIMES AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ALOFT WILL RESULT IN INCREASED
FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN TO BECOME
RATHER WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. COULD BE A FEW POCKETS OF
SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM...BUT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN.

CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE FURTHER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST. STRONG SHORTWAVE
ROUNDS BASE OF THE TROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST.
DEEP AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
850 MB WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD
INDICATED...AND FLOW NOW PROJECTED TO BE MORE SOUTHERLY THAN
SOUTHEAST. STILL LOOKING AT A 40-50 KT 850 MB JET HOWEVER. BUT
WITH LESS OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING WOULD NOT BE
QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT. BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HIGH
WINDS CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PERHAPS ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM...WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL
AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
AMOUNTS WILL VARY A BIT DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS. HIGHEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG SOUTH FACING
SLOPES OF SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
OVER NORTHWEST VERMONT AND FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK. WITH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...AND
LITTLE DROP OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND
MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THE SNOWMELT
COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN SMALL STREAMS. RIGHT NOW
RIVER GAUGES ARE SHOWING RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE LOW...SO WHILE
SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
RIVER FLOODING ISSUES. RAIN CONTINUES EARLY ON CHRISTMAS
DAY...THEN SOME DRYING EXPECTED WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT DURING
THE MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AS COLDER AIR RETURNS. TEMPS IN VALLEYS REMAIN MILD THOUGH
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH READINGS IN THE 40S.

DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS
A CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE RESULT BEING LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND SOME PATCHY FOG AT TIMES. IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AT
MOST SITES EXCEPT RUT/MPV WHERE MVFR/VFR EXPECTED. DURING THE DAY
TODAY...AREAS WITH IFR IMPROVE TO MVFR...AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY
SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR A TIME. MORE OF THE SAME FOR TONIGHT
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS
OF IFR. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MON-00Z TUE...LOW CLOUDS WITH MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-18Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS



000
FXUS61 KBUF 211425
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
925 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER LASTING
INTO MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND PRODUCE RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR
WET SNOW SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
CONTINUING TO CAUSE LIGHT LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA...
RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT AREA OF STRATUS TRAPPED BENEATH A STEEP
LOW LEVEL INVERSION BASED AROUND 3K FEET. THIS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF
CLOUDS IN PLACE TODAY FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THE ONE
EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTHERN FINGER
LAKES WHERE A SUCKER HOLE HAS OPENED UP THIS MORNING TO ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. EXPECT THIS TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED...AS WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON BRINGS ADDITIONAL STRATUS BACK INTO
THIS AREA.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
AMPLIFY OVER THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS STRONG WEST TO
EAST ORIENTED JET OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL BACKING/INCREASE OF
LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA WHICH MAY SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE LOW
CLOUDS BY TONIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY CLOUDY PERIOD AS
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST.

THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN A SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE LAKE
PLAINS OF WESTERN NY WITH UPPER 20S ON SOME OF THE HILLS AND ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 20S
WITH LOWER 20S NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LIE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WHICH WILL PERSIST IN SPITE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE. ON MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT
INCREASING MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WILL REINFORCE
THE CLOUDY SKIES.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD
OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF A SHOWER ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK.
MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT BECOME FULLY SATURATED UNTIL CHRISTMAS EVE
MORNING SO THERE WILL BE A MOISTENING FROM ALOFT TO KEEP LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS FROM EVAPORATING ON THEIR WAY TO THE GROUND. BEST CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ESPECIALLY BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AND AVOID THE POSSIBILITY OF A FREEZING WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION.

THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND +10C. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THEN TEMPS PUSH WELL INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND WILL
STEADY OR CONTINUE TO RISE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHEST GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY CONTINUES TO BE
FOCUSED ON A STORM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES
AND SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THIS STORM.

ON CHRISTMAS EVE WARM MOIST AIR WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTH AHEAD
OF THIS STORM BRINGING RAIN AND VERY MILD TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. NAEFS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR
ONE INCH WHICH IS NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN A 30 YEAR PWAT CLIMO.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S CHRISTMAS EVE
SHOULD YIELD SOME MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THESE
SHOWERS MAY HELP TO DRAG DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A 50
KNOT 850MB JET STREAKING OVERHEAD.

A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
NEW YORK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL NEEDS
TO BE FINE TUNED AS THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS.
THIS FRONT WILL BE THE LEADING EDGE TO COOLER TEMPS. IT IS IMPORTANT
TO MENTION THAT WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THE
SOURCE REGION OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC BASED AND NOT ARCTIC
BASED SO THIS LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A REDUCED THREAT
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE
WARMER WITH TODAYS RUNS ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN -5C AND -8C. SURFACE
TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 30S ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND LOW 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LATEST FORECAST NOW REFLECTS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LAKE SHORES AND LOWER TERRAIN WITH SOME
LIMITED SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT
IS ALSO POSSIBLE PENDING AVAILABLE POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE.

ALTHOUGH THERE WAS A CONCERN OF HIGHER WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
THAT THE HIGHER WINDS ARE PREFRONTAL AND STILL ABOVE A FAIRLY STEEP
TEMPERATURE INVERSION. WINDS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT APPEAR TO BE
MORE WESTERLY AND WITH LESS MAGNITUDE...STILL POSSIBLE FOR A QUICK
BLAST OF GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 KNOTS ACCOMPANYING THE THE COLD FRONT.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. FURTHER OUT WE WILL BE WATCHING NEXT WEEKEND FOR
ANOTHER POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG WINDS AND MORE RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TODAY AND EVEN INTO TONIGHT. IFR CIGS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR. A HOLE IN THE STRATUS HAS OPENED
UP NEAR KROC...BUT THIS SHOULD FILL BACK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
ADDITIONAL STRATUS SPREADS INTO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND FLAT WAVE ACTION. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME ON
MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON BOTH LAKES...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS
COOLER AIR PUSHES BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WCH
LONG TERM...SMITH/WCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/TMA
MARINE...TMA





000
FXUS61 KBUF 211425
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
925 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER LASTING
INTO MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND PRODUCE RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR
WET SNOW SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
CONTINUING TO CAUSE LIGHT LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA...
RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT AREA OF STRATUS TRAPPED BENEATH A STEEP
LOW LEVEL INVERSION BASED AROUND 3K FEET. THIS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF
CLOUDS IN PLACE TODAY FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THE ONE
EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTHERN FINGER
LAKES WHERE A SUCKER HOLE HAS OPENED UP THIS MORNING TO ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. EXPECT THIS TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED...AS WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON BRINGS ADDITIONAL STRATUS BACK INTO
THIS AREA.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
AMPLIFY OVER THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS STRONG WEST TO
EAST ORIENTED JET OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL BACKING/INCREASE OF
LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA WHICH MAY SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE LOW
CLOUDS BY TONIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY CLOUDY PERIOD AS
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST.

THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN A SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE LAKE
PLAINS OF WESTERN NY WITH UPPER 20S ON SOME OF THE HILLS AND ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 20S
WITH LOWER 20S NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LIE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WHICH WILL PERSIST IN SPITE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE. ON MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT
INCREASING MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WILL REINFORCE
THE CLOUDY SKIES.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD
OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF A SHOWER ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK.
MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT BECOME FULLY SATURATED UNTIL CHRISTMAS EVE
MORNING SO THERE WILL BE A MOISTENING FROM ALOFT TO KEEP LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS FROM EVAPORATING ON THEIR WAY TO THE GROUND. BEST CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ESPECIALLY BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AND AVOID THE POSSIBILITY OF A FREEZING WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION.

THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND +10C. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THEN TEMPS PUSH WELL INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND WILL
STEADY OR CONTINUE TO RISE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHEST GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY CONTINUES TO BE
FOCUSED ON A STORM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES
AND SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THIS STORM.

ON CHRISTMAS EVE WARM MOIST AIR WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTH AHEAD
OF THIS STORM BRINGING RAIN AND VERY MILD TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. NAEFS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR
ONE INCH WHICH IS NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN A 30 YEAR PWAT CLIMO.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S CHRISTMAS EVE
SHOULD YIELD SOME MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THESE
SHOWERS MAY HELP TO DRAG DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A 50
KNOT 850MB JET STREAKING OVERHEAD.

A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
NEW YORK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL NEEDS
TO BE FINE TUNED AS THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS.
THIS FRONT WILL BE THE LEADING EDGE TO COOLER TEMPS. IT IS IMPORTANT
TO MENTION THAT WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THE
SOURCE REGION OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC BASED AND NOT ARCTIC
BASED SO THIS LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A REDUCED THREAT
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE
WARMER WITH TODAYS RUNS ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN -5C AND -8C. SURFACE
TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 30S ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND LOW 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LATEST FORECAST NOW REFLECTS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LAKE SHORES AND LOWER TERRAIN WITH SOME
LIMITED SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT
IS ALSO POSSIBLE PENDING AVAILABLE POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE.

ALTHOUGH THERE WAS A CONCERN OF HIGHER WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
THAT THE HIGHER WINDS ARE PREFRONTAL AND STILL ABOVE A FAIRLY STEEP
TEMPERATURE INVERSION. WINDS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT APPEAR TO BE
MORE WESTERLY AND WITH LESS MAGNITUDE...STILL POSSIBLE FOR A QUICK
BLAST OF GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 KNOTS ACCOMPANYING THE THE COLD FRONT.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. FURTHER OUT WE WILL BE WATCHING NEXT WEEKEND FOR
ANOTHER POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG WINDS AND MORE RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TODAY AND EVEN INTO TONIGHT. IFR CIGS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR. A HOLE IN THE STRATUS HAS OPENED
UP NEAR KROC...BUT THIS SHOULD FILL BACK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
ADDITIONAL STRATUS SPREADS INTO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND FLAT WAVE ACTION. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME ON
MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON BOTH LAKES...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS
COOLER AIR PUSHES BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WCH
LONG TERM...SMITH/WCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/TMA
MARINE...TMA





000
FXUS61 KBUF 211425
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
925 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER LASTING
INTO MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND PRODUCE RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR
WET SNOW SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
CONTINUING TO CAUSE LIGHT LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA...
RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT AREA OF STRATUS TRAPPED BENEATH A STEEP
LOW LEVEL INVERSION BASED AROUND 3K FEET. THIS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF
CLOUDS IN PLACE TODAY FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THE ONE
EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTHERN FINGER
LAKES WHERE A SUCKER HOLE HAS OPENED UP THIS MORNING TO ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. EXPECT THIS TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED...AS WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON BRINGS ADDITIONAL STRATUS BACK INTO
THIS AREA.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
AMPLIFY OVER THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS STRONG WEST TO
EAST ORIENTED JET OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL BACKING/INCREASE OF
LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA WHICH MAY SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE LOW
CLOUDS BY TONIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY CLOUDY PERIOD AS
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST.

THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN A SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE LAKE
PLAINS OF WESTERN NY WITH UPPER 20S ON SOME OF THE HILLS AND ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 20S
WITH LOWER 20S NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LIE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WHICH WILL PERSIST IN SPITE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE. ON MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT
INCREASING MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WILL REINFORCE
THE CLOUDY SKIES.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD
OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF A SHOWER ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK.
MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT BECOME FULLY SATURATED UNTIL CHRISTMAS EVE
MORNING SO THERE WILL BE A MOISTENING FROM ALOFT TO KEEP LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS FROM EVAPORATING ON THEIR WAY TO THE GROUND. BEST CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ESPECIALLY BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AND AVOID THE POSSIBILITY OF A FREEZING WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION.

THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND +10C. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THEN TEMPS PUSH WELL INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND WILL
STEADY OR CONTINUE TO RISE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHEST GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY CONTINUES TO BE
FOCUSED ON A STORM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES
AND SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THIS STORM.

ON CHRISTMAS EVE WARM MOIST AIR WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTH AHEAD
OF THIS STORM BRINGING RAIN AND VERY MILD TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. NAEFS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR
ONE INCH WHICH IS NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN A 30 YEAR PWAT CLIMO.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S CHRISTMAS EVE
SHOULD YIELD SOME MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THESE
SHOWERS MAY HELP TO DRAG DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A 50
KNOT 850MB JET STREAKING OVERHEAD.

A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
NEW YORK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL NEEDS
TO BE FINE TUNED AS THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS.
THIS FRONT WILL BE THE LEADING EDGE TO COOLER TEMPS. IT IS IMPORTANT
TO MENTION THAT WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THE
SOURCE REGION OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC BASED AND NOT ARCTIC
BASED SO THIS LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A REDUCED THREAT
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE
WARMER WITH TODAYS RUNS ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN -5C AND -8C. SURFACE
TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 30S ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND LOW 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LATEST FORECAST NOW REFLECTS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LAKE SHORES AND LOWER TERRAIN WITH SOME
LIMITED SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT
IS ALSO POSSIBLE PENDING AVAILABLE POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE.

ALTHOUGH THERE WAS A CONCERN OF HIGHER WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
THAT THE HIGHER WINDS ARE PREFRONTAL AND STILL ABOVE A FAIRLY STEEP
TEMPERATURE INVERSION. WINDS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT APPEAR TO BE
MORE WESTERLY AND WITH LESS MAGNITUDE...STILL POSSIBLE FOR A QUICK
BLAST OF GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 KNOTS ACCOMPANYING THE THE COLD FRONT.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. FURTHER OUT WE WILL BE WATCHING NEXT WEEKEND FOR
ANOTHER POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG WINDS AND MORE RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TODAY AND EVEN INTO TONIGHT. IFR CIGS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR. A HOLE IN THE STRATUS HAS OPENED
UP NEAR KROC...BUT THIS SHOULD FILL BACK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
ADDITIONAL STRATUS SPREADS INTO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND FLAT WAVE ACTION. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME ON
MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON BOTH LAKES...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS
COOLER AIR PUSHES BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WCH
LONG TERM...SMITH/WCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/TMA
MARINE...TMA





000
FXUS61 KBUF 211425
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
925 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER LASTING
INTO MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND PRODUCE RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR
WET SNOW SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
CONTINUING TO CAUSE LIGHT LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA...
RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT AREA OF STRATUS TRAPPED BENEATH A STEEP
LOW LEVEL INVERSION BASED AROUND 3K FEET. THIS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF
CLOUDS IN PLACE TODAY FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THE ONE
EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTHERN FINGER
LAKES WHERE A SUCKER HOLE HAS OPENED UP THIS MORNING TO ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. EXPECT THIS TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED...AS WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON BRINGS ADDITIONAL STRATUS BACK INTO
THIS AREA.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
AMPLIFY OVER THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS STRONG WEST TO
EAST ORIENTED JET OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL BACKING/INCREASE OF
LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA WHICH MAY SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE LOW
CLOUDS BY TONIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY CLOUDY PERIOD AS
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST.

THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN A SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE LAKE
PLAINS OF WESTERN NY WITH UPPER 20S ON SOME OF THE HILLS AND ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 20S
WITH LOWER 20S NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LIE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WHICH WILL PERSIST IN SPITE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE. ON MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT
INCREASING MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WILL REINFORCE
THE CLOUDY SKIES.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD
OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF A SHOWER ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK.
MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT BECOME FULLY SATURATED UNTIL CHRISTMAS EVE
MORNING SO THERE WILL BE A MOISTENING FROM ALOFT TO KEEP LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS FROM EVAPORATING ON THEIR WAY TO THE GROUND. BEST CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ESPECIALLY BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AND AVOID THE POSSIBILITY OF A FREEZING WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION.

THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND +10C. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THEN TEMPS PUSH WELL INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND WILL
STEADY OR CONTINUE TO RISE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHEST GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY CONTINUES TO BE
FOCUSED ON A STORM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES
AND SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THIS STORM.

ON CHRISTMAS EVE WARM MOIST AIR WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTH AHEAD
OF THIS STORM BRINGING RAIN AND VERY MILD TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. NAEFS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR
ONE INCH WHICH IS NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN A 30 YEAR PWAT CLIMO.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S CHRISTMAS EVE
SHOULD YIELD SOME MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THESE
SHOWERS MAY HELP TO DRAG DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A 50
KNOT 850MB JET STREAKING OVERHEAD.

A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
NEW YORK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL NEEDS
TO BE FINE TUNED AS THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS.
THIS FRONT WILL BE THE LEADING EDGE TO COOLER TEMPS. IT IS IMPORTANT
TO MENTION THAT WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THE
SOURCE REGION OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC BASED AND NOT ARCTIC
BASED SO THIS LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A REDUCED THREAT
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE
WARMER WITH TODAYS RUNS ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN -5C AND -8C. SURFACE
TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 30S ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND LOW 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LATEST FORECAST NOW REFLECTS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LAKE SHORES AND LOWER TERRAIN WITH SOME
LIMITED SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT
IS ALSO POSSIBLE PENDING AVAILABLE POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE.

ALTHOUGH THERE WAS A CONCERN OF HIGHER WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
THAT THE HIGHER WINDS ARE PREFRONTAL AND STILL ABOVE A FAIRLY STEEP
TEMPERATURE INVERSION. WINDS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT APPEAR TO BE
MORE WESTERLY AND WITH LESS MAGNITUDE...STILL POSSIBLE FOR A QUICK
BLAST OF GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 KNOTS ACCOMPANYING THE THE COLD FRONT.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. FURTHER OUT WE WILL BE WATCHING NEXT WEEKEND FOR
ANOTHER POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG WINDS AND MORE RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TODAY AND EVEN INTO TONIGHT. IFR CIGS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR. A HOLE IN THE STRATUS HAS OPENED
UP NEAR KROC...BUT THIS SHOULD FILL BACK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
ADDITIONAL STRATUS SPREADS INTO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND FLAT WAVE ACTION. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME ON
MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON BOTH LAKES...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS
COOLER AIR PUSHES BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WCH
LONG TERM...SMITH/WCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/TMA
MARINE...TMA





000
FXUS61 KALY 211401
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
901 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...
BRINGING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH SOME LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT...AND A PERIOD OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 9 AM EST...VERY LIGHT SNOW GRAINS HAVE SPREAD NORTH AND WEST
INTO THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION...AND REMAIN FOR AREAS TO THE S
AND E. ACCUMS HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT DUE TO THE GRAINY
NATURE...GENERALLY ONLY ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH AND WEST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...COMBINED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO
THE SOUTH...SHOULD KEEP LIGHT SNOW GRAINS/FLURRIES ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST NOON BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM NW TO SE.
AGAIN...ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE A COATING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.

DESPITE HOW LIGHT THE SNOW IS...HAVE HAD REPORTS OF SLIPPERY
TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY EARLIER THIS
MORNING. THIS MAY ALSO BE THE CASE FURTHER N AND W INTO THE
CAPITAL REGION...SO HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
THROUGH NOON TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION DESCRIBES THE
SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE SITUATION...

LITTLE LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SEEN ON KOKX RADAR JUST SOUTH OF
EASTERN LONG ISLAND...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK UPPER ENERGY
TRACKING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRACKING INTO OUR
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT SNOW HAS SPREAD INLAND INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
TACONICS... ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE IS SO SHALLOW AND AT SUCH LOW
LEVELS...AREA RADARS ARE NOT FULLY PICKING UP ON THE AREAL EXTENT
AND INTENSITY OF THE SNOW.

SOME GUIDANCE IS RESOLVING THESE SMALL SCALE FEATURES AND
SUGGESTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN TACONICS...NW CT AND THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES.
SO...HIGH CHANCES TO LIKELY IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING IN
THOSE AREAS.

SOME LIGHT SNOW GRAINS/FLURRIES EVEN INTO THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH CHANCES FOR
BRIEF INTERVALS OF LIGHT SNOW IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN TACONICS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. WITH ALL THE CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE DAY... HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE. HIGHS AROUND 30 TO THE MID 30S...SOME 20S IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME
BRIEF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP MUCH. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
WINDS...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WARM ADVECTION SLOWLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING. LIGHT
WIND FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
MIX OUT CLOUD COVER...BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD HELP ANY CLEARING
TO THE SOUTH SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH...UNTIL THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST SPREAD OVER
THE REGION. STILL...WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER...HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
30S.

SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AS
DOES WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED IN SE CANADA...SO SURFACE FLOW SHOULD BE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. AGEOSTROPHIC LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST SUGGEST THAT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
IN THE REGION COULD HELP TEMPERATURES FALL TO WET BULB LEVELS...
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SNOW AND/OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IN SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT ION THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...JUST ABOVE FREEZING
IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...BUT POTENTIALLY CLOSE TO FREEZING
IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. NO WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES YET...WITH
JUST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN BUT WILL INCLUDE IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK BECAUSE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IF FREEZING RAIN
BECOMES LIKELY IN SOME AREAS AS THE EVENT NEARS.

ALL PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY AND SLOWLY INCREASES
IN COVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHEN. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...BUT
AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER EXPECTED FROM CHRISTMAS EVE TO
CHRISTMAS DAY...AS A STORM STORM SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLE MULTIPLE
HAZARDS AFFECTS THE REGION. THE MAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS SYSTEM.

BY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY OUR REGION SHOULD BE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED IN A
WARM SECTOR ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. A DEEP
TROUGH WILL BE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...MIDWEST AND TENN VALLEY REGIONS...WITH A RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BOTH IN THE LOW LEVELS AND ALOFT WILL BE IN
PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DESPITE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
LOWER TO MID 50S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST.

SOUTHERLY WIND FIELD WILL BE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW. HOW STRONG WIND SPEEDS END UP
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL DEPEND ON DEGREE OF MIXING. SURGES OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH PWATS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO +4 TO +5 STDEV BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH SNOW MELT IN HIGHER TERRAIN
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR DETAILS.

THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING...TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE AREA...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT THAT LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
AND DEEPEN IN THE PROCESS. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW LOOKS
TO CROSS OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SOMETIME EARLY CHRISTMAS
MORNING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BURST
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. STEADY RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF TO
SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CHRISTMAS
MORNING. AS THE LOW DEEPENS FURTHER ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
CHRISTMAS DAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS COULD BE
MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WITH BETTER MIXING. HIGH TEMPS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOPING BRISK WESTERLY WIND.

OTHER THAN A FEW UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL TURN MUCH COLDER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT WILL STILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAKER DISTURBANCE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
MAY BRING SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH LIGHT QPF.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TONIGHT.

SOLID BATCH OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH CIGS IN MVFR
RANGE. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO BRUSH THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 16Z-18Z FOR KALB/KPOU/KPSF
WITH MVFR VSBY/CIGS. LESS MOISTURE ANTICIPATED FARTHER NORTH
AROUND KGFL...SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH THERE. CIGS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO VFR RANGE AFTER 18Z...EXCEPT FOR KPSF WHERE MVFR CIGS
SHOULD PREVAIL. CLOUDS MAY TEND TO BREAK UP TOWARDS EVENING...BUT
EXPECTING BKN CIGS TO PREVAIL.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY LESS THAN 5 KTS THROUGH PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 211401
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
901 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...
BRINGING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH SOME LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT...AND A PERIOD OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 9 AM EST...VERY LIGHT SNOW GRAINS HAVE SPREAD NORTH AND WEST
INTO THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION...AND REMAIN FOR AREAS TO THE S
AND E. ACCUMS HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT DUE TO THE GRAINY
NATURE...GENERALLY ONLY ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH AND WEST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...COMBINED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO
THE SOUTH...SHOULD KEEP LIGHT SNOW GRAINS/FLURRIES ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST NOON BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM NW TO SE.
AGAIN...ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE A COATING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.

DESPITE HOW LIGHT THE SNOW IS...HAVE HAD REPORTS OF SLIPPERY
TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY EARLIER THIS
MORNING. THIS MAY ALSO BE THE CASE FURTHER N AND W INTO THE
CAPITAL REGION...SO HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
THROUGH NOON TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION DESCRIBES THE
SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE SITUATION...

LITTLE LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SEEN ON KOKX RADAR JUST SOUTH OF
EASTERN LONG ISLAND...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK UPPER ENERGY
TRACKING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRACKING INTO OUR
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT SNOW HAS SPREAD INLAND INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
TACONICS... ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE IS SO SHALLOW AND AT SUCH LOW
LEVELS...AREA RADARS ARE NOT FULLY PICKING UP ON THE AREAL EXTENT
AND INTENSITY OF THE SNOW.

SOME GUIDANCE IS RESOLVING THESE SMALL SCALE FEATURES AND
SUGGESTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN TACONICS...NW CT AND THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES.
SO...HIGH CHANCES TO LIKELY IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING IN
THOSE AREAS.

SOME LIGHT SNOW GRAINS/FLURRIES EVEN INTO THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH CHANCES FOR
BRIEF INTERVALS OF LIGHT SNOW IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN TACONICS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. WITH ALL THE CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE DAY... HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE. HIGHS AROUND 30 TO THE MID 30S...SOME 20S IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME
BRIEF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP MUCH. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
WINDS...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WARM ADVECTION SLOWLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING. LIGHT
WIND FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
MIX OUT CLOUD COVER...BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD HELP ANY CLEARING
TO THE SOUTH SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH...UNTIL THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST SPREAD OVER
THE REGION. STILL...WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER...HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
30S.

SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AS
DOES WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED IN SE CANADA...SO SURFACE FLOW SHOULD BE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. AGEOSTROPHIC LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST SUGGEST THAT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
IN THE REGION COULD HELP TEMPERATURES FALL TO WET BULB LEVELS...
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SNOW AND/OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IN SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT ION THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...JUST ABOVE FREEZING
IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...BUT POTENTIALLY CLOSE TO FREEZING
IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. NO WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES YET...WITH
JUST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN BUT WILL INCLUDE IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK BECAUSE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IF FREEZING RAIN
BECOMES LIKELY IN SOME AREAS AS THE EVENT NEARS.

ALL PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY AND SLOWLY INCREASES
IN COVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHEN. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...BUT
AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER EXPECTED FROM CHRISTMAS EVE TO
CHRISTMAS DAY...AS A STORM STORM SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLE MULTIPLE
HAZARDS AFFECTS THE REGION. THE MAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS SYSTEM.

BY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY OUR REGION SHOULD BE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED IN A
WARM SECTOR ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. A DEEP
TROUGH WILL BE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...MIDWEST AND TENN VALLEY REGIONS...WITH A RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BOTH IN THE LOW LEVELS AND ALOFT WILL BE IN
PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DESPITE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
LOWER TO MID 50S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST.

SOUTHERLY WIND FIELD WILL BE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW. HOW STRONG WIND SPEEDS END UP
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL DEPEND ON DEGREE OF MIXING. SURGES OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH PWATS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO +4 TO +5 STDEV BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH SNOW MELT IN HIGHER TERRAIN
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR DETAILS.

THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING...TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE AREA...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT THAT LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
AND DEEPEN IN THE PROCESS. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW LOOKS
TO CROSS OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SOMETIME EARLY CHRISTMAS
MORNING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BURST
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. STEADY RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF TO
SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CHRISTMAS
MORNING. AS THE LOW DEEPENS FURTHER ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
CHRISTMAS DAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS COULD BE
MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WITH BETTER MIXING. HIGH TEMPS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOPING BRISK WESTERLY WIND.

OTHER THAN A FEW UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL TURN MUCH COLDER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT WILL STILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAKER DISTURBANCE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
MAY BRING SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH LIGHT QPF.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TONIGHT.

SOLID BATCH OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH CIGS IN MVFR
RANGE. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO BRUSH THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 16Z-18Z FOR KALB/KPOU/KPSF
WITH MVFR VSBY/CIGS. LESS MOISTURE ANTICIPATED FARTHER NORTH
AROUND KGFL...SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH THERE. CIGS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO VFR RANGE AFTER 18Z...EXCEPT FOR KPSF WHERE MVFR CIGS
SHOULD PREVAIL. CLOUDS MAY TEND TO BREAK UP TOWARDS EVENING...BUT
EXPECTING BKN CIGS TO PREVAIL.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY LESS THAN 5 KTS THROUGH PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 211401
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
901 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...
BRINGING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH SOME LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT...AND A PERIOD OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 9 AM EST...VERY LIGHT SNOW GRAINS HAVE SPREAD NORTH AND WEST
INTO THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION...AND REMAIN FOR AREAS TO THE S
AND E. ACCUMS HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT DUE TO THE GRAINY
NATURE...GENERALLY ONLY ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH AND WEST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...COMBINED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO
THE SOUTH...SHOULD KEEP LIGHT SNOW GRAINS/FLURRIES ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST NOON BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM NW TO SE.
AGAIN...ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE A COATING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.

DESPITE HOW LIGHT THE SNOW IS...HAVE HAD REPORTS OF SLIPPERY
TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY EARLIER THIS
MORNING. THIS MAY ALSO BE THE CASE FURTHER N AND W INTO THE
CAPITAL REGION...SO HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
THROUGH NOON TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION DESCRIBES THE
SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE SITUATION...

LITTLE LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SEEN ON KOKX RADAR JUST SOUTH OF
EASTERN LONG ISLAND...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK UPPER ENERGY
TRACKING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRACKING INTO OUR
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT SNOW HAS SPREAD INLAND INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
TACONICS... ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE IS SO SHALLOW AND AT SUCH LOW
LEVELS...AREA RADARS ARE NOT FULLY PICKING UP ON THE AREAL EXTENT
AND INTENSITY OF THE SNOW.

SOME GUIDANCE IS RESOLVING THESE SMALL SCALE FEATURES AND
SUGGESTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN TACONICS...NW CT AND THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES.
SO...HIGH CHANCES TO LIKELY IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING IN
THOSE AREAS.

SOME LIGHT SNOW GRAINS/FLURRIES EVEN INTO THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH CHANCES FOR
BRIEF INTERVALS OF LIGHT SNOW IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN TACONICS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. WITH ALL THE CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE DAY... HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE. HIGHS AROUND 30 TO THE MID 30S...SOME 20S IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME
BRIEF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP MUCH. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
WINDS...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WARM ADVECTION SLOWLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING. LIGHT
WIND FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
MIX OUT CLOUD COVER...BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD HELP ANY CLEARING
TO THE SOUTH SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH...UNTIL THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST SPREAD OVER
THE REGION. STILL...WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER...HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
30S.

SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AS
DOES WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED IN SE CANADA...SO SURFACE FLOW SHOULD BE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. AGEOSTROPHIC LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST SUGGEST THAT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
IN THE REGION COULD HELP TEMPERATURES FALL TO WET BULB LEVELS...
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SNOW AND/OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IN SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT ION THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...JUST ABOVE FREEZING
IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...BUT POTENTIALLY CLOSE TO FREEZING
IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. NO WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES YET...WITH
JUST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN BUT WILL INCLUDE IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK BECAUSE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IF FREEZING RAIN
BECOMES LIKELY IN SOME AREAS AS THE EVENT NEARS.

ALL PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY AND SLOWLY INCREASES
IN COVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHEN. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...BUT
AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER EXPECTED FROM CHRISTMAS EVE TO
CHRISTMAS DAY...AS A STORM STORM SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLE MULTIPLE
HAZARDS AFFECTS THE REGION. THE MAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS SYSTEM.

BY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY OUR REGION SHOULD BE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED IN A
WARM SECTOR ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. A DEEP
TROUGH WILL BE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...MIDWEST AND TENN VALLEY REGIONS...WITH A RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BOTH IN THE LOW LEVELS AND ALOFT WILL BE IN
PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DESPITE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
LOWER TO MID 50S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST.

SOUTHERLY WIND FIELD WILL BE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW. HOW STRONG WIND SPEEDS END UP
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL DEPEND ON DEGREE OF MIXING. SURGES OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH PWATS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO +4 TO +5 STDEV BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH SNOW MELT IN HIGHER TERRAIN
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR DETAILS.

THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING...TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE AREA...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT THAT LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
AND DEEPEN IN THE PROCESS. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW LOOKS
TO CROSS OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SOMETIME EARLY CHRISTMAS
MORNING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BURST
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. STEADY RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF TO
SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CHRISTMAS
MORNING. AS THE LOW DEEPENS FURTHER ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
CHRISTMAS DAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS COULD BE
MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WITH BETTER MIXING. HIGH TEMPS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOPING BRISK WESTERLY WIND.

OTHER THAN A FEW UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL TURN MUCH COLDER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT WILL STILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAKER DISTURBANCE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
MAY BRING SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH LIGHT QPF.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TONIGHT.

SOLID BATCH OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH CIGS IN MVFR
RANGE. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO BRUSH THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 16Z-18Z FOR KALB/KPOU/KPSF
WITH MVFR VSBY/CIGS. LESS MOISTURE ANTICIPATED FARTHER NORTH
AROUND KGFL...SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH THERE. CIGS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO VFR RANGE AFTER 18Z...EXCEPT FOR KPSF WHERE MVFR CIGS
SHOULD PREVAIL. CLOUDS MAY TEND TO BREAK UP TOWARDS EVENING...BUT
EXPECTING BKN CIGS TO PREVAIL.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY LESS THAN 5 KTS THROUGH PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 211401
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
901 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...
BRINGING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH SOME LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT...AND A PERIOD OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 9 AM EST...VERY LIGHT SNOW GRAINS HAVE SPREAD NORTH AND WEST
INTO THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION...AND REMAIN FOR AREAS TO THE S
AND E. ACCUMS HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT DUE TO THE GRAINY
NATURE...GENERALLY ONLY ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH AND WEST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...COMBINED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO
THE SOUTH...SHOULD KEEP LIGHT SNOW GRAINS/FLURRIES ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST NOON BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM NW TO SE.
AGAIN...ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE A COATING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.

DESPITE HOW LIGHT THE SNOW IS...HAVE HAD REPORTS OF SLIPPERY
TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY EARLIER THIS
MORNING. THIS MAY ALSO BE THE CASE FURTHER N AND W INTO THE
CAPITAL REGION...SO HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
THROUGH NOON TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION DESCRIBES THE
SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE SITUATION...

LITTLE LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SEEN ON KOKX RADAR JUST SOUTH OF
EASTERN LONG ISLAND...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK UPPER ENERGY
TRACKING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRACKING INTO OUR
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT SNOW HAS SPREAD INLAND INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
TACONICS... ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE IS SO SHALLOW AND AT SUCH LOW
LEVELS...AREA RADARS ARE NOT FULLY PICKING UP ON THE AREAL EXTENT
AND INTENSITY OF THE SNOW.

SOME GUIDANCE IS RESOLVING THESE SMALL SCALE FEATURES AND
SUGGESTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN TACONICS...NW CT AND THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES.
SO...HIGH CHANCES TO LIKELY IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING IN
THOSE AREAS.

SOME LIGHT SNOW GRAINS/FLURRIES EVEN INTO THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH CHANCES FOR
BRIEF INTERVALS OF LIGHT SNOW IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN TACONICS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. WITH ALL THE CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE DAY... HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE. HIGHS AROUND 30 TO THE MID 30S...SOME 20S IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME
BRIEF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP MUCH. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
WINDS...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WARM ADVECTION SLOWLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING. LIGHT
WIND FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
MIX OUT CLOUD COVER...BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD HELP ANY CLEARING
TO THE SOUTH SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH...UNTIL THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST SPREAD OVER
THE REGION. STILL...WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER...HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
30S.

SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AS
DOES WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED IN SE CANADA...SO SURFACE FLOW SHOULD BE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. AGEOSTROPHIC LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST SUGGEST THAT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
IN THE REGION COULD HELP TEMPERATURES FALL TO WET BULB LEVELS...
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SNOW AND/OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IN SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT ION THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...JUST ABOVE FREEZING
IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...BUT POTENTIALLY CLOSE TO FREEZING
IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. NO WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES YET...WITH
JUST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN BUT WILL INCLUDE IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK BECAUSE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IF FREEZING RAIN
BECOMES LIKELY IN SOME AREAS AS THE EVENT NEARS.

ALL PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY AND SLOWLY INCREASES
IN COVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHEN. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...BUT
AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER EXPECTED FROM CHRISTMAS EVE TO
CHRISTMAS DAY...AS A STORM STORM SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLE MULTIPLE
HAZARDS AFFECTS THE REGION. THE MAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS SYSTEM.

BY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY OUR REGION SHOULD BE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED IN A
WARM SECTOR ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. A DEEP
TROUGH WILL BE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...MIDWEST AND TENN VALLEY REGIONS...WITH A RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BOTH IN THE LOW LEVELS AND ALOFT WILL BE IN
PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DESPITE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
LOWER TO MID 50S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST.

SOUTHERLY WIND FIELD WILL BE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW. HOW STRONG WIND SPEEDS END UP
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL DEPEND ON DEGREE OF MIXING. SURGES OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH PWATS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO +4 TO +5 STDEV BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH SNOW MELT IN HIGHER TERRAIN
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR DETAILS.

THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING...TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE AREA...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT THAT LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
AND DEEPEN IN THE PROCESS. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW LOOKS
TO CROSS OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SOMETIME EARLY CHRISTMAS
MORNING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BURST
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. STEADY RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF TO
SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CHRISTMAS
MORNING. AS THE LOW DEEPENS FURTHER ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
CHRISTMAS DAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS COULD BE
MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WITH BETTER MIXING. HIGH TEMPS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOPING BRISK WESTERLY WIND.

OTHER THAN A FEW UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL TURN MUCH COLDER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT WILL STILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAKER DISTURBANCE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
MAY BRING SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH LIGHT QPF.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TONIGHT.

SOLID BATCH OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH CIGS IN MVFR
RANGE. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO BRUSH THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 16Z-18Z FOR KALB/KPOU/KPSF
WITH MVFR VSBY/CIGS. LESS MOISTURE ANTICIPATED FARTHER NORTH
AROUND KGFL...SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH THERE. CIGS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO VFR RANGE AFTER 18Z...EXCEPT FOR KPSF WHERE MVFR CIGS
SHOULD PREVAIL. CLOUDS MAY TEND TO BREAK UP TOWARDS EVENING...BUT
EXPECTING BKN CIGS TO PREVAIL.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY LESS THAN 5 KTS THROUGH PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 211401
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
901 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...
BRINGING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH SOME LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT...AND A PERIOD OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 9 AM EST...VERY LIGHT SNOW GRAINS HAVE SPREAD NORTH AND WEST
INTO THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION...AND REMAIN FOR AREAS TO THE S
AND E. ACCUMS HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT DUE TO THE GRAINY
NATURE...GENERALLY ONLY ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH AND WEST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...COMBINED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO
THE SOUTH...SHOULD KEEP LIGHT SNOW GRAINS/FLURRIES ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST NOON BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM NW TO SE.
AGAIN...ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE A COATING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.

DESPITE HOW LIGHT THE SNOW IS...HAVE HAD REPORTS OF SLIPPERY
TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY EARLIER THIS
MORNING. THIS MAY ALSO BE THE CASE FURTHER N AND W INTO THE
CAPITAL REGION...SO HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
THROUGH NOON TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION DESCRIBES THE
SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE SITUATION...

LITTLE LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SEEN ON KOKX RADAR JUST SOUTH OF
EASTERN LONG ISLAND...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK UPPER ENERGY
TRACKING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRACKING INTO OUR
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT SNOW HAS SPREAD INLAND INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
TACONICS... ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE IS SO SHALLOW AND AT SUCH LOW
LEVELS...AREA RADARS ARE NOT FULLY PICKING UP ON THE AREAL EXTENT
AND INTENSITY OF THE SNOW.

SOME GUIDANCE IS RESOLVING THESE SMALL SCALE FEATURES AND
SUGGESTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN TACONICS...NW CT AND THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES.
SO...HIGH CHANCES TO LIKELY IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING IN
THOSE AREAS.

SOME LIGHT SNOW GRAINS/FLURRIES EVEN INTO THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH CHANCES FOR
BRIEF INTERVALS OF LIGHT SNOW IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN TACONICS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. WITH ALL THE CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE DAY... HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE. HIGHS AROUND 30 TO THE MID 30S...SOME 20S IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME
BRIEF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP MUCH. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
WINDS...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WARM ADVECTION SLOWLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING. LIGHT
WIND FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
MIX OUT CLOUD COVER...BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD HELP ANY CLEARING
TO THE SOUTH SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH...UNTIL THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST SPREAD OVER
THE REGION. STILL...WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER...HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
30S.

SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AS
DOES WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED IN SE CANADA...SO SURFACE FLOW SHOULD BE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. AGEOSTROPHIC LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST SUGGEST THAT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
IN THE REGION COULD HELP TEMPERATURES FALL TO WET BULB LEVELS...
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SNOW AND/OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IN SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT ION THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...JUST ABOVE FREEZING
IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...BUT POTENTIALLY CLOSE TO FREEZING
IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. NO WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES YET...WITH
JUST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN BUT WILL INCLUDE IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK BECAUSE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IF FREEZING RAIN
BECOMES LIKELY IN SOME AREAS AS THE EVENT NEARS.

ALL PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY AND SLOWLY INCREASES
IN COVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHEN. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...BUT
AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER EXPECTED FROM CHRISTMAS EVE TO
CHRISTMAS DAY...AS A STORM STORM SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLE MULTIPLE
HAZARDS AFFECTS THE REGION. THE MAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS SYSTEM.

BY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY OUR REGION SHOULD BE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED IN A
WARM SECTOR ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. A DEEP
TROUGH WILL BE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...MIDWEST AND TENN VALLEY REGIONS...WITH A RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BOTH IN THE LOW LEVELS AND ALOFT WILL BE IN
PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DESPITE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
LOWER TO MID 50S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST.

SOUTHERLY WIND FIELD WILL BE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW. HOW STRONG WIND SPEEDS END UP
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL DEPEND ON DEGREE OF MIXING. SURGES OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH PWATS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO +4 TO +5 STDEV BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH SNOW MELT IN HIGHER TERRAIN
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR DETAILS.

THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING...TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE AREA...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT THAT LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
AND DEEPEN IN THE PROCESS. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW LOOKS
TO CROSS OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SOMETIME EARLY CHRISTMAS
MORNING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BURST
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. STEADY RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF TO
SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CHRISTMAS
MORNING. AS THE LOW DEEPENS FURTHER ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
CHRISTMAS DAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS COULD BE
MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WITH BETTER MIXING. HIGH TEMPS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOPING BRISK WESTERLY WIND.

OTHER THAN A FEW UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL TURN MUCH COLDER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT WILL STILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAKER DISTURBANCE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
MAY BRING SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH LIGHT QPF.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TONIGHT.

SOLID BATCH OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH CIGS IN MVFR
RANGE. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO BRUSH THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 16Z-18Z FOR KALB/KPOU/KPSF
WITH MVFR VSBY/CIGS. LESS MOISTURE ANTICIPATED FARTHER NORTH
AROUND KGFL...SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH THERE. CIGS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO VFR RANGE AFTER 18Z...EXCEPT FOR KPSF WHERE MVFR CIGS
SHOULD PREVAIL. CLOUDS MAY TEND TO BREAK UP TOWARDS EVENING...BUT
EXPECTING BKN CIGS TO PREVAIL.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY LESS THAN 5 KTS THROUGH PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 211401
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
901 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...
BRINGING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH SOME LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT...AND A PERIOD OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 9 AM EST...VERY LIGHT SNOW GRAINS HAVE SPREAD NORTH AND WEST
INTO THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION...AND REMAIN FOR AREAS TO THE S
AND E. ACCUMS HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT DUE TO THE GRAINY
NATURE...GENERALLY ONLY ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH AND WEST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...COMBINED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO
THE SOUTH...SHOULD KEEP LIGHT SNOW GRAINS/FLURRIES ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST NOON BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM NW TO SE.
AGAIN...ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE A COATING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.

DESPITE HOW LIGHT THE SNOW IS...HAVE HAD REPORTS OF SLIPPERY
TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY EARLIER THIS
MORNING. THIS MAY ALSO BE THE CASE FURTHER N AND W INTO THE
CAPITAL REGION...SO HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
THROUGH NOON TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION DESCRIBES THE
SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE SITUATION...

LITTLE LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SEEN ON KOKX RADAR JUST SOUTH OF
EASTERN LONG ISLAND...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK UPPER ENERGY
TRACKING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRACKING INTO OUR
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT SNOW HAS SPREAD INLAND INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
TACONICS... ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE IS SO SHALLOW AND AT SUCH LOW
LEVELS...AREA RADARS ARE NOT FULLY PICKING UP ON THE AREAL EXTENT
AND INTENSITY OF THE SNOW.

SOME GUIDANCE IS RESOLVING THESE SMALL SCALE FEATURES AND
SUGGESTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN TACONICS...NW CT AND THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES.
SO...HIGH CHANCES TO LIKELY IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING IN
THOSE AREAS.

SOME LIGHT SNOW GRAINS/FLURRIES EVEN INTO THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH CHANCES FOR
BRIEF INTERVALS OF LIGHT SNOW IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN TACONICS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. WITH ALL THE CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE DAY... HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE. HIGHS AROUND 30 TO THE MID 30S...SOME 20S IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME
BRIEF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP MUCH. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
WINDS...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WARM ADVECTION SLOWLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING. LIGHT
WIND FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
MIX OUT CLOUD COVER...BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD HELP ANY CLEARING
TO THE SOUTH SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH...UNTIL THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST SPREAD OVER
THE REGION. STILL...WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER...HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
30S.

SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AS
DOES WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED IN SE CANADA...SO SURFACE FLOW SHOULD BE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. AGEOSTROPHIC LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST SUGGEST THAT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
IN THE REGION COULD HELP TEMPERATURES FALL TO WET BULB LEVELS...
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SNOW AND/OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IN SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT ION THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...JUST ABOVE FREEZING
IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...BUT POTENTIALLY CLOSE TO FREEZING
IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. NO WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES YET...WITH
JUST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN BUT WILL INCLUDE IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK BECAUSE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IF FREEZING RAIN
BECOMES LIKELY IN SOME AREAS AS THE EVENT NEARS.

ALL PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY AND SLOWLY INCREASES
IN COVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHEN. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...BUT
AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER EXPECTED FROM CHRISTMAS EVE TO
CHRISTMAS DAY...AS A STORM STORM SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLE MULTIPLE
HAZARDS AFFECTS THE REGION. THE MAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS SYSTEM.

BY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY OUR REGION SHOULD BE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED IN A
WARM SECTOR ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. A DEEP
TROUGH WILL BE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...MIDWEST AND TENN VALLEY REGIONS...WITH A RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BOTH IN THE LOW LEVELS AND ALOFT WILL BE IN
PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DESPITE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
LOWER TO MID 50S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST.

SOUTHERLY WIND FIELD WILL BE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW. HOW STRONG WIND SPEEDS END UP
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL DEPEND ON DEGREE OF MIXING. SURGES OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH PWATS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO +4 TO +5 STDEV BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH SNOW MELT IN HIGHER TERRAIN
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR DETAILS.

THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING...TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE AREA...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT THAT LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
AND DEEPEN IN THE PROCESS. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW LOOKS
TO CROSS OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SOMETIME EARLY CHRISTMAS
MORNING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BURST
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. STEADY RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF TO
SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CHRISTMAS
MORNING. AS THE LOW DEEPENS FURTHER ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
CHRISTMAS DAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS COULD BE
MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WITH BETTER MIXING. HIGH TEMPS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOPING BRISK WESTERLY WIND.

OTHER THAN A FEW UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL TURN MUCH COLDER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT WILL STILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAKER DISTURBANCE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
MAY BRING SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH LIGHT QPF.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TONIGHT.

SOLID BATCH OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH CIGS IN MVFR
RANGE. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO BRUSH THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 16Z-18Z FOR KALB/KPOU/KPSF
WITH MVFR VSBY/CIGS. LESS MOISTURE ANTICIPATED FARTHER NORTH
AROUND KGFL...SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH THERE. CIGS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO VFR RANGE AFTER 18Z...EXCEPT FOR KPSF WHERE MVFR CIGS
SHOULD PREVAIL. CLOUDS MAY TEND TO BREAK UP TOWARDS EVENING...BUT
EXPECTING BKN CIGS TO PREVAIL.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY LESS THAN 5 KTS THROUGH PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KBGM 211159
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
659 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, INCLUDING
CHRISTMAS DAY, AND BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN SOME AREAS AT THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
MIX TO SNOW SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS DAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THIS STORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER DAY OF CLOUDS WHICH WILL MAKE DAY 14 IN A ROW. OPTIMISTIC
MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM JUST 24 HOURS AGO ARE MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC
FOR SUN CHANCES TODAY. 0Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A THIN LAYER
OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION, WHICH HAS BEEN A
BROKEN RECORD FOR US NOW. AT BEST WE MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER, NOT A TOTAL CLEAR OUT, LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE FAR
WEST AND SOUTH. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS, EXTENSIVE
CLOUDS BACK TO OUR WEST THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN AND OHIO DO NOT. A
STRAY FLURRY OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT OVERALL MOST
WILL REMAIN DRY. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AGAIN TODAY, AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 5-6 DEGREES WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES RIGHT NOW.

MONDAY MAY BE OUR MOST REALISTIC SHOT AT SUNSHINE AS THE FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY, AND THIS MAY HELP TO LIFT ANY LOW CLOUDS TO
OUR NORTH. RIGHT NOW OBS SUPPORT THIS BACK OVER KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE. AS OUR MID WEEK STORM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE COUNTRY, HOPEFULLY WE CAN FINALLY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
CLOUDS BEFORE WE TURN UNSETTLED AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
PERIOD WILL FEATURE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND A SLOWLY
YIELDING RIDGE AT THE SURFACE. WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES
LATE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR
ALOFT...PRECIPITATION APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE EXCLUSIVELY LIQUID.
FOR SOME LOCATIONS /MAINLY EASTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA/ THAT MAY
PRESENT A VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBILITY MONDAY NIGHT- EARLY
TUESDAY.

ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS STILL BRING LIGHT QPF INTO THE AREA WITH
THAT FIRST WAVE MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY TUESDAY...YET NAM AND
ESPECIALLY GFS HAVE VERY LITTLE. EITHER WAY...IT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT PRECIP THAT WILL HAVE TO FIGHT SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM STRONG HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES...AND DRY MID LEVELS. A LOT OF IT MAY TURN OUT
TO BE VIRGA. EASTERLY FLOW AGAINST THE POCONOS-CATSKILLS WILL MEAN
LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BEST THERE DUE TO UPSLOPING...OR AT
LEAST DRIZZLE...WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR MAJORITY OF THE
AREA. THE COLD AIR DAMMING VIA EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO MEAN LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE ON THE FRONT END OF THE WAVE UNTIL
TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING. THE USUAL SUSPECTS
WILL BE PRONE TO A VERY LIGHT ICING...POCONOS-CATSKILLS-MOHAWK
VALLEY-TUG HILL...BUT OF COURSE THAT WILL DEPEND ON ACTUAL
PRECIPITATION WHICH ITSELF IS NOT CERTAIN. MIDMORNING TUESDAY
ONWARD...ABOVE FREEZING FOR ENTIRE AREA AND THUS ONLY RAIN FOR
PRECIP TYPE.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GRADUALLY YIELDS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM INCREASINGLY MOIST SW-SSW FLOW ALONG
WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN. THUS RAIN CHANCES
AREAWIDE WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAWN
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
415 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY FOR WPC GUIDANCE AND MODEL TRENDS.
VERY MILD TEMPERATURES CHRISTMAS EVE...INCLUDING INTO THE
NIGHT...BEFORE COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES CHRISTMAS DAY. ALSO QUITE
WET WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES A GOOD 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL...AND SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF 850MB JET AROUND 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS. WHILE WE HAVE AREAL AVERAGE QPF OF ROUGHLY
HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RAINFALL ON A
LOCALIZED SCALE COULD BE HEAVIER. MODELS STILL DISAGREE A BIT ON
HOW LONG IT TAKES PRECIP TYPE TO CHANGE FROM STEADY RAIN TO
SCATTERED SNOW...BUT TREND IS SLIGHTLY LATER...SO CHRISTMAS DAY
MAY INCLUDE BOTH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INITIALLY BEFORE ALL SNOW
SHOWERS BY LATER IN THE DAY. COVERAGE OF THOSE SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL
BE HIGHEST IN NORTHERN TO CENTRAL NEW YORK...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
FEWER SHOWERS IN TWIN TIERS AND ESPECIALLY TOWARDS WYOMING VALLEY
OF NEPA DUE TO POTENTIAL DRY SLOTTING AS MENTIONED BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT OF THE
UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE POTENT UPPR LVL TROUGH
WILL BE LOCATED JUST ALONG AND EAST OF THE ROCKIES... AND IS
EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF TEXAS.
THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH AN OCCLUDED
SFC LOW NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO CANADA... WHILE
THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THESE TWO FEATURES AS THEY
MOVE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

ALL ACTIVITY BY TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN AS STRONG WAA WILL
BE PRESENT OVER THE REGION. SHOWERS ATTM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS
RAIN UNTIL 06Z ON THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER TO TRANSITION
RAIN OVER TO SNOW THAN THE GFS. IT IS STILL TO FAR OUT TO PIN
POINT HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL WITH THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY MORNING...
BUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT COUNTRY
AS WE MAY STILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT REGION THURSDAY.

AS MENTIONED BEFORE WINDS MAY BE A POTENTIAL IMPACT FROM THIS
STORM ON THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS WED
AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR... RISING INTO
THE LOW 50S. COLDER PACIFIC AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA... RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS ONLY
REACHING THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S ON THURS. FRI AND SAT TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S.

WE ARE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS STORM. FOR TRAVEL CONCERNS
PLEASE PAY ATTENTION TO FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERSISTENT MOISTURE UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION WILL KEEP CLOUDS
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT.

MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH LATE MORNING.
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ENOUGH DRIER AIR MAY MOVE INTO ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KBGM THAT WHILE STILL FAIRLY CLOUDY, OUR DECK MAY
RAISE TO 5KFT OR HIGHER. MVFG CIGS LOOK MOST LIKELY TO PERSIST AT
KBGM AND THROUGH TONIGHT.


WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. GRADUALLY WINDS PICK UP
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AROUND 5 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO THURS...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-THURS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...HEDEN







000
FXUS61 KBGM 211159
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
659 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, INCLUDING
CHRISTMAS DAY, AND BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN SOME AREAS AT THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
MIX TO SNOW SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS DAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THIS STORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER DAY OF CLOUDS WHICH WILL MAKE DAY 14 IN A ROW. OPTIMISTIC
MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM JUST 24 HOURS AGO ARE MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC
FOR SUN CHANCES TODAY. 0Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A THIN LAYER
OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION, WHICH HAS BEEN A
BROKEN RECORD FOR US NOW. AT BEST WE MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER, NOT A TOTAL CLEAR OUT, LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE FAR
WEST AND SOUTH. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS, EXTENSIVE
CLOUDS BACK TO OUR WEST THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN AND OHIO DO NOT. A
STRAY FLURRY OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT OVERALL MOST
WILL REMAIN DRY. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AGAIN TODAY, AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 5-6 DEGREES WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES RIGHT NOW.

MONDAY MAY BE OUR MOST REALISTIC SHOT AT SUNSHINE AS THE FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY, AND THIS MAY HELP TO LIFT ANY LOW CLOUDS TO
OUR NORTH. RIGHT NOW OBS SUPPORT THIS BACK OVER KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE. AS OUR MID WEEK STORM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE COUNTRY, HOPEFULLY WE CAN FINALLY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
CLOUDS BEFORE WE TURN UNSETTLED AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
PERIOD WILL FEATURE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND A SLOWLY
YIELDING RIDGE AT THE SURFACE. WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES
LATE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR
ALOFT...PRECIPITATION APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE EXCLUSIVELY LIQUID.
FOR SOME LOCATIONS /MAINLY EASTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA/ THAT MAY
PRESENT A VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBILITY MONDAY NIGHT- EARLY
TUESDAY.

ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS STILL BRING LIGHT QPF INTO THE AREA WITH
THAT FIRST WAVE MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY TUESDAY...YET NAM AND
ESPECIALLY GFS HAVE VERY LITTLE. EITHER WAY...IT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT PRECIP THAT WILL HAVE TO FIGHT SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM STRONG HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES...AND DRY MID LEVELS. A LOT OF IT MAY TURN OUT
TO BE VIRGA. EASTERLY FLOW AGAINST THE POCONOS-CATSKILLS WILL MEAN
LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BEST THERE DUE TO UPSLOPING...OR AT
LEAST DRIZZLE...WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR MAJORITY OF THE
AREA. THE COLD AIR DAMMING VIA EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO MEAN LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE ON THE FRONT END OF THE WAVE UNTIL
TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING. THE USUAL SUSPECTS
WILL BE PRONE TO A VERY LIGHT ICING...POCONOS-CATSKILLS-MOHAWK
VALLEY-TUG HILL...BUT OF COURSE THAT WILL DEPEND ON ACTUAL
PRECIPITATION WHICH ITSELF IS NOT CERTAIN. MIDMORNING TUESDAY
ONWARD...ABOVE FREEZING FOR ENTIRE AREA AND THUS ONLY RAIN FOR
PRECIP TYPE.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GRADUALLY YIELDS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM INCREASINGLY MOIST SW-SSW FLOW ALONG
WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN. THUS RAIN CHANCES
AREAWIDE WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAWN
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
415 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY FOR WPC GUIDANCE AND MODEL TRENDS.
VERY MILD TEMPERATURES CHRISTMAS EVE...INCLUDING INTO THE
NIGHT...BEFORE COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES CHRISTMAS DAY. ALSO QUITE
WET WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES A GOOD 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL...AND SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF 850MB JET AROUND 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS. WHILE WE HAVE AREAL AVERAGE QPF OF ROUGHLY
HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RAINFALL ON A
LOCALIZED SCALE COULD BE HEAVIER. MODELS STILL DISAGREE A BIT ON
HOW LONG IT TAKES PRECIP TYPE TO CHANGE FROM STEADY RAIN TO
SCATTERED SNOW...BUT TREND IS SLIGHTLY LATER...SO CHRISTMAS DAY
MAY INCLUDE BOTH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INITIALLY BEFORE ALL SNOW
SHOWERS BY LATER IN THE DAY. COVERAGE OF THOSE SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL
BE HIGHEST IN NORTHERN TO CENTRAL NEW YORK...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
FEWER SHOWERS IN TWIN TIERS AND ESPECIALLY TOWARDS WYOMING VALLEY
OF NEPA DUE TO POTENTIAL DRY SLOTTING AS MENTIONED BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT OF THE
UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE POTENT UPPR LVL TROUGH
WILL BE LOCATED JUST ALONG AND EAST OF THE ROCKIES... AND IS
EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF TEXAS.
THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH AN OCCLUDED
SFC LOW NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO CANADA... WHILE
THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THESE TWO FEATURES AS THEY
MOVE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

ALL ACTIVITY BY TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN AS STRONG WAA WILL
BE PRESENT OVER THE REGION. SHOWERS ATTM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS
RAIN UNTIL 06Z ON THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER TO TRANSITION
RAIN OVER TO SNOW THAN THE GFS. IT IS STILL TO FAR OUT TO PIN
POINT HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL WITH THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY MORNING...
BUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT COUNTRY
AS WE MAY STILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT REGION THURSDAY.

AS MENTIONED BEFORE WINDS MAY BE A POTENTIAL IMPACT FROM THIS
STORM ON THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS WED
AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR... RISING INTO
THE LOW 50S. COLDER PACIFIC AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA... RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS ONLY
REACHING THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S ON THURS. FRI AND SAT TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S.

WE ARE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS STORM. FOR TRAVEL CONCERNS
PLEASE PAY ATTENTION TO FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERSISTENT MOISTURE UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION WILL KEEP CLOUDS
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT.

MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH LATE MORNING.
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ENOUGH DRIER AIR MAY MOVE INTO ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KBGM THAT WHILE STILL FAIRLY CLOUDY, OUR DECK MAY
RAISE TO 5KFT OR HIGHER. MVFG CIGS LOOK MOST LIKELY TO PERSIST AT
KBGM AND THROUGH TONIGHT.


WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. GRADUALLY WINDS PICK UP
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AROUND 5 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO THURS...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-THURS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...HEDEN







000
FXUS61 KBGM 211159
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
659 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, INCLUDING
CHRISTMAS DAY, AND BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN SOME AREAS AT THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
MIX TO SNOW SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS DAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THIS STORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER DAY OF CLOUDS WHICH WILL MAKE DAY 14 IN A ROW. OPTIMISTIC
MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM JUST 24 HOURS AGO ARE MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC
FOR SUN CHANCES TODAY. 0Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A THIN LAYER
OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION, WHICH HAS BEEN A
BROKEN RECORD FOR US NOW. AT BEST WE MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER, NOT A TOTAL CLEAR OUT, LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE FAR
WEST AND SOUTH. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS, EXTENSIVE
CLOUDS BACK TO OUR WEST THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN AND OHIO DO NOT. A
STRAY FLURRY OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT OVERALL MOST
WILL REMAIN DRY. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AGAIN TODAY, AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 5-6 DEGREES WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES RIGHT NOW.

MONDAY MAY BE OUR MOST REALISTIC SHOT AT SUNSHINE AS THE FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY, AND THIS MAY HELP TO LIFT ANY LOW CLOUDS TO
OUR NORTH. RIGHT NOW OBS SUPPORT THIS BACK OVER KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE. AS OUR MID WEEK STORM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE COUNTRY, HOPEFULLY WE CAN FINALLY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
CLOUDS BEFORE WE TURN UNSETTLED AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
PERIOD WILL FEATURE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND A SLOWLY
YIELDING RIDGE AT THE SURFACE. WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES
LATE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR
ALOFT...PRECIPITATION APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE EXCLUSIVELY LIQUID.
FOR SOME LOCATIONS /MAINLY EASTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA/ THAT MAY
PRESENT A VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBILITY MONDAY NIGHT- EARLY
TUESDAY.

ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS STILL BRING LIGHT QPF INTO THE AREA WITH
THAT FIRST WAVE MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY TUESDAY...YET NAM AND
ESPECIALLY GFS HAVE VERY LITTLE. EITHER WAY...IT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT PRECIP THAT WILL HAVE TO FIGHT SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM STRONG HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES...AND DRY MID LEVELS. A LOT OF IT MAY TURN OUT
TO BE VIRGA. EASTERLY FLOW AGAINST THE POCONOS-CATSKILLS WILL MEAN
LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BEST THERE DUE TO UPSLOPING...OR AT
LEAST DRIZZLE...WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR MAJORITY OF THE
AREA. THE COLD AIR DAMMING VIA EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO MEAN LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE ON THE FRONT END OF THE WAVE UNTIL
TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING. THE USUAL SUSPECTS
WILL BE PRONE TO A VERY LIGHT ICING...POCONOS-CATSKILLS-MOHAWK
VALLEY-TUG HILL...BUT OF COURSE THAT WILL DEPEND ON ACTUAL
PRECIPITATION WHICH ITSELF IS NOT CERTAIN. MIDMORNING TUESDAY
ONWARD...ABOVE FREEZING FOR ENTIRE AREA AND THUS ONLY RAIN FOR
PRECIP TYPE.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GRADUALLY YIELDS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM INCREASINGLY MOIST SW-SSW FLOW ALONG
WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN. THUS RAIN CHANCES
AREAWIDE WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAWN
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
415 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY FOR WPC GUIDANCE AND MODEL TRENDS.
VERY MILD TEMPERATURES CHRISTMAS EVE...INCLUDING INTO THE
NIGHT...BEFORE COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES CHRISTMAS DAY. ALSO QUITE
WET WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES A GOOD 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL...AND SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF 850MB JET AROUND 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS. WHILE WE HAVE AREAL AVERAGE QPF OF ROUGHLY
HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RAINFALL ON A
LOCALIZED SCALE COULD BE HEAVIER. MODELS STILL DISAGREE A BIT ON
HOW LONG IT TAKES PRECIP TYPE TO CHANGE FROM STEADY RAIN TO
SCATTERED SNOW...BUT TREND IS SLIGHTLY LATER...SO CHRISTMAS DAY
MAY INCLUDE BOTH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INITIALLY BEFORE ALL SNOW
SHOWERS BY LATER IN THE DAY. COVERAGE OF THOSE SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL
BE HIGHEST IN NORTHERN TO CENTRAL NEW YORK...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
FEWER SHOWERS IN TWIN TIERS AND ESPECIALLY TOWARDS WYOMING VALLEY
OF NEPA DUE TO POTENTIAL DRY SLOTTING AS MENTIONED BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT OF THE
UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE POTENT UPPR LVL TROUGH
WILL BE LOCATED JUST ALONG AND EAST OF THE ROCKIES... AND IS
EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF TEXAS.
THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH AN OCCLUDED
SFC LOW NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO CANADA... WHILE
THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THESE TWO FEATURES AS THEY
MOVE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

ALL ACTIVITY BY TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN AS STRONG WAA WILL
BE PRESENT OVER THE REGION. SHOWERS ATTM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS
RAIN UNTIL 06Z ON THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER TO TRANSITION
RAIN OVER TO SNOW THAN THE GFS. IT IS STILL TO FAR OUT TO PIN
POINT HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL WITH THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY MORNING...
BUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT COUNTRY
AS WE MAY STILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT REGION THURSDAY.

AS MENTIONED BEFORE WINDS MAY BE A POTENTIAL IMPACT FROM THIS
STORM ON THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS WED
AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR... RISING INTO
THE LOW 50S. COLDER PACIFIC AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA... RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS ONLY
REACHING THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S ON THURS. FRI AND SAT TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S.

WE ARE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS STORM. FOR TRAVEL CONCERNS
PLEASE PAY ATTENTION TO FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERSISTENT MOISTURE UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION WILL KEEP CLOUDS
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT.

MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH LATE MORNING.
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ENOUGH DRIER AIR MAY MOVE INTO ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KBGM THAT WHILE STILL FAIRLY CLOUDY, OUR DECK MAY
RAISE TO 5KFT OR HIGHER. MVFG CIGS LOOK MOST LIKELY TO PERSIST AT
KBGM AND THROUGH TONIGHT.


WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. GRADUALLY WINDS PICK UP
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AROUND 5 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO THURS...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-THURS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...HEDEN






000
FXUS61 KBTV 211158
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
658 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY
AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 650 AM EST SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE FOR TODAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH
AS AN AREA OF VORTICITY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FLOW
REMAINS WEAK TODAY...THEREFORE LIGHT WINDS. CLOUDS ARE STILL TOUGH
TO FIGURE OUT...LOTS OF CLOUDS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING...THINK
WE MAY SEE SOME BREAKS LATER TODAY...BUT NOT CLEARING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE 20S ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA...COOLER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA AND WARMER SOUTH. AS
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WE MAY SEE SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES IN
VERMONT. HAVE MENTIONED JUST A CHANCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...QUIET DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CLOUDS ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE AREA. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME CLEARING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH...WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 30S. WILL SEE SOME CLEARING MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM. VERY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND CLOUDS INCREASE...A MILD
DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 40S IN PARTS OF OUR AREA.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AS A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EST SUNDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA
OF RAINY AND POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY INTO
THE MORNING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS DAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS ACROSS CANADIAN MARITIMES AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ALOFT WILL RESULT IN INCREASED
FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN TO BECOME
RATHER WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. COULD BE A FEW POCKETS OF
SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM...BUT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN.

CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE FURTHER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST. STRONG SHORTWAVE
ROUNDS BASE OF THE TROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST.
DEEP AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
850 MB WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD
INDICATED...AND FLOW NOW PROJECTED TO BE MORE SOUTHERLY THAN
SOUTHEAST. STILL LOOKING AT A 40-50 KT 850 MB JET HOWEVER. BUT
WITH LESS OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING WOULD NOT BE
QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT. BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HIGH
WINDS CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PERHAPS ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM...WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL
AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
AMOUNTS WILL VARY A BIT DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS. HIGHEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG SOUTH FACING
SLOPES OF SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
OVER NORTHWEST VERMONT AND FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK. WITH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...AND
LITTLE DROPOFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MILD
TEMPS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THE SNOWMELT COMBINED
WITH THE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN SMALL STREAMS. RIGHT NOW RIVER
GAUGES ARE SHOWING RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE LOW...SO WHILE SOME
MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RIVER
FLOODING ISSUES. RAIN CONTINUES EARLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY...THEN SOME
DRYING EXPECTED WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING.
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS COLDER AIR
RETURNS. TEMPS IN VALLEYS REMAIN MILD THOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH READINGS IN THE 40S.

DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS
A CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE RESULT BEING LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND SOME PATCHY FOG AT TIMES. IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AT
MOST SITES EXCEPT RUT/MPV WHERE MVFR/VFR EXPECTED. DURING THE DAY
TODAY...AREAS WITH IFR IMPROVE TO MVFR...AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY
SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR A TIME. MORE OF THE SAME FOR TONIGHT
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS
OF IFR. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MON-00Z TUE...LOW CLOUDS WITH MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-18Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 211158
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
658 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY
AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 650 AM EST SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE FOR TODAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH
AS AN AREA OF VORTICITY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FLOW
REMAINS WEAK TODAY...THEREFORE LIGHT WINDS. CLOUDS ARE STILL TOUGH
TO FIGURE OUT...LOTS OF CLOUDS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING...THINK
WE MAY SEE SOME BREAKS LATER TODAY...BUT NOT CLEARING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE 20S ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA...COOLER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA AND WARMER SOUTH. AS
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WE MAY SEE SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES IN
VERMONT. HAVE MENTIONED JUST A CHANCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...QUIET DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CLOUDS ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE AREA. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME CLEARING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH...WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 30S. WILL SEE SOME CLEARING MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM. VERY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND CLOUDS INCREASE...A MILD
DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 40S IN PARTS OF OUR AREA.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AS A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EST SUNDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA
OF RAINY AND POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY INTO
THE MORNING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS DAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS ACROSS CANADIAN MARITIMES AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ALOFT WILL RESULT IN INCREASED
FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN TO BECOME
RATHER WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. COULD BE A FEW POCKETS OF
SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM...BUT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN.

CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE FURTHER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST. STRONG SHORTWAVE
ROUNDS BASE OF THE TROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST.
DEEP AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
850 MB WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD
INDICATED...AND FLOW NOW PROJECTED TO BE MORE SOUTHERLY THAN
SOUTHEAST. STILL LOOKING AT A 40-50 KT 850 MB JET HOWEVER. BUT
WITH LESS OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING WOULD NOT BE
QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT. BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HIGH
WINDS CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PERHAPS ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM...WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL
AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
AMOUNTS WILL VARY A BIT DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS. HIGHEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG SOUTH FACING
SLOPES OF SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
OVER NORTHWEST VERMONT AND FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK. WITH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...AND
LITTLE DROPOFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MILD
TEMPS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THE SNOWMELT COMBINED
WITH THE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN SMALL STREAMS. RIGHT NOW RIVER
GAUGES ARE SHOWING RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE LOW...SO WHILE SOME
MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RIVER
FLOODING ISSUES. RAIN CONTINUES EARLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY...THEN SOME
DRYING EXPECTED WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING.
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS COLDER AIR
RETURNS. TEMPS IN VALLEYS REMAIN MILD THOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH READINGS IN THE 40S.

DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS
A CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE RESULT BEING LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND SOME PATCHY FOG AT TIMES. IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AT
MOST SITES EXCEPT RUT/MPV WHERE MVFR/VFR EXPECTED. DURING THE DAY
TODAY...AREAS WITH IFR IMPROVE TO MVFR...AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY
SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR A TIME. MORE OF THE SAME FOR TONIGHT
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS
OF IFR. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MON-00Z TUE...LOW CLOUDS WITH MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-18Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 211158
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
658 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY
AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 650 AM EST SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE FOR TODAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH
AS AN AREA OF VORTICITY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FLOW
REMAINS WEAK TODAY...THEREFORE LIGHT WINDS. CLOUDS ARE STILL TOUGH
TO FIGURE OUT...LOTS OF CLOUDS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING...THINK
WE MAY SEE SOME BREAKS LATER TODAY...BUT NOT CLEARING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE 20S ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA...COOLER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA AND WARMER SOUTH. AS
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WE MAY SEE SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES IN
VERMONT. HAVE MENTIONED JUST A CHANCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...QUIET DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CLOUDS ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE AREA. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME CLEARING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH...WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 30S. WILL SEE SOME CLEARING MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM. VERY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND CLOUDS INCREASE...A MILD
DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 40S IN PARTS OF OUR AREA.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AS A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EST SUNDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA
OF RAINY AND POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY INTO
THE MORNING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS DAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS ACROSS CANADIAN MARITIMES AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ALOFT WILL RESULT IN INCREASED
FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN TO BECOME
RATHER WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. COULD BE A FEW POCKETS OF
SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM...BUT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN.

CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE FURTHER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST. STRONG SHORTWAVE
ROUNDS BASE OF THE TROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST.
DEEP AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
850 MB WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD
INDICATED...AND FLOW NOW PROJECTED TO BE MORE SOUTHERLY THAN
SOUTHEAST. STILL LOOKING AT A 40-50 KT 850 MB JET HOWEVER. BUT
WITH LESS OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING WOULD NOT BE
QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT. BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HIGH
WINDS CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PERHAPS ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM...WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL
AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
AMOUNTS WILL VARY A BIT DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS. HIGHEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG SOUTH FACING
SLOPES OF SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
OVER NORTHWEST VERMONT AND FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK. WITH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...AND
LITTLE DROPOFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MILD
TEMPS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THE SNOWMELT COMBINED
WITH THE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN SMALL STREAMS. RIGHT NOW RIVER
GAUGES ARE SHOWING RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE LOW...SO WHILE SOME
MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RIVER
FLOODING ISSUES. RAIN CONTINUES EARLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY...THEN SOME
DRYING EXPECTED WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING.
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS COLDER AIR
RETURNS. TEMPS IN VALLEYS REMAIN MILD THOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH READINGS IN THE 40S.

DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS
A CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE RESULT BEING LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND SOME PATCHY FOG AT TIMES. IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AT
MOST SITES EXCEPT RUT/MPV WHERE MVFR/VFR EXPECTED. DURING THE DAY
TODAY...AREAS WITH IFR IMPROVE TO MVFR...AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY
SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR A TIME. MORE OF THE SAME FOR TONIGHT
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS
OF IFR. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MON-00Z TUE...LOW CLOUDS WITH MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-18Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 211158
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
658 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY
AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 650 AM EST SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE FOR TODAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH
AS AN AREA OF VORTICITY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FLOW
REMAINS WEAK TODAY...THEREFORE LIGHT WINDS. CLOUDS ARE STILL TOUGH
TO FIGURE OUT...LOTS OF CLOUDS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING...THINK
WE MAY SEE SOME BREAKS LATER TODAY...BUT NOT CLEARING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE 20S ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA...COOLER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA AND WARMER SOUTH. AS
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WE MAY SEE SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES IN
VERMONT. HAVE MENTIONED JUST A CHANCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...QUIET DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CLOUDS ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE AREA. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME CLEARING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH...WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 30S. WILL SEE SOME CLEARING MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM. VERY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND CLOUDS INCREASE...A MILD
DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 40S IN PARTS OF OUR AREA.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AS A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EST SUNDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA
OF RAINY AND POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY INTO
THE MORNING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS DAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS ACROSS CANADIAN MARITIMES AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ALOFT WILL RESULT IN INCREASED
FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN TO BECOME
RATHER WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. COULD BE A FEW POCKETS OF
SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM...BUT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN.

CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE FURTHER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST. STRONG SHORTWAVE
ROUNDS BASE OF THE TROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST.
DEEP AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
850 MB WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD
INDICATED...AND FLOW NOW PROJECTED TO BE MORE SOUTHERLY THAN
SOUTHEAST. STILL LOOKING AT A 40-50 KT 850 MB JET HOWEVER. BUT
WITH LESS OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING WOULD NOT BE
QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT. BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HIGH
WINDS CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PERHAPS ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM...WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL
AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
AMOUNTS WILL VARY A BIT DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS. HIGHEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG SOUTH FACING
SLOPES OF SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
OVER NORTHWEST VERMONT AND FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK. WITH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...AND
LITTLE DROPOFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MILD
TEMPS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THE SNOWMELT COMBINED
WITH THE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN SMALL STREAMS. RIGHT NOW RIVER
GAUGES ARE SHOWING RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE LOW...SO WHILE SOME
MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RIVER
FLOODING ISSUES. RAIN CONTINUES EARLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY...THEN SOME
DRYING EXPECTED WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING.
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS COLDER AIR
RETURNS. TEMPS IN VALLEYS REMAIN MILD THOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH READINGS IN THE 40S.

DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS
A CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE RESULT BEING LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND SOME PATCHY FOG AT TIMES. IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AT
MOST SITES EXCEPT RUT/MPV WHERE MVFR/VFR EXPECTED. DURING THE DAY
TODAY...AREAS WITH IFR IMPROVE TO MVFR...AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY
SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR A TIME. MORE OF THE SAME FOR TONIGHT
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS
OF IFR. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MON-00Z TUE...LOW CLOUDS WITH MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-18Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 211149
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
649 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY
AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE FOR TODAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH
AS AN AREA OF VORTICITY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FLOW
REMAINS WEAK TODAY...THEREFORE LIGHT WINDS. CLOUDS ARE STILL TOUGH
TO FIGURE OUT...LOTS OF CLOUDS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING...THINK
WE MAY SEE SOME BREAKS LATER TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE IN THE 20S ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...COOLER ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN CWA AND WARMER SOUTH. AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WE MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
OUR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES IN VERMONT. HAVE MENTIONED JUST A CHANCE
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...QUIET DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CLOUDS ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE AREA. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME CLEARING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH...WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 30S. WILL SEE SOME CLEARING MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM. VERY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND CLOUDS INCREASE...A MILD
DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 40S IN PARTS OF OUR AREA.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AS A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EST SUNDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA
OF RAINY AND POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY INTO
THE MORNING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS DAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS ACROSS CANADIAN MARITIMES AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ALOFT WILL RESULT IN INCREASED
FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN TO BECOME
RATHER WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. COULD BE A FEW POCKETS OF
SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM...BUT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN.

CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE FURTHER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST. STRONG SHORTWAVE
ROUNDS BASE OF THE TROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST.
DEEP AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
850 MB WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD
INDICATED...AND FLOW NOW PROJECTED TO BE MORE SOUTHERLY THAN
SOUTHEAST. STILL LOOKING AT A 40-50 KT 850 MB JET HOWEVER. BUT
WITH LESS OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING WOULD NOT BE
QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT. BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HIGH
WINDS CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PERHAPS ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM...WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL
AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
AMOUNTS WILL VARY A BIT DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS. HIGHEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG SOUTH FACING
SLOPES OF SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
OVER NORTHWEST VERMONT AND FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK. WITH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...AND
LITTLE DROPOFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MILD
TEMPS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THE SNOWMELT COMBINED
WITH THE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN SMALL STREAMS. RIGHT NOW RIVER
GAUGES ARE SHOWING RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE LOW...SO WHILE SOME
MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RIVER
FLOODING ISSUES. RAIN CONTINUES EARLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY...THEN SOME
DRYING EXPECTED WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING.
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS COLDER AIR
RETURNS. TEMPS IN VALLEYS REMAIN MILD THOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH READINGS IN THE 40S.

DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS
A CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE RESULT BEING LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND SOME PATCHY FOG AT TIMES. IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AT
MOST SITES EXCEPT RUT/MPV WHERE MVFR/VFR EXPECTED. DURING THE DAY
TODAY...AREAS WITH IFR IMPROVE TO MVFR...AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY
SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR A TIME. MORE OF THE SAME FOR TONIGHT
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS
OF IFR. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MON-00Z TUE...LOW CLOUDS WITH MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-18Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 211149
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
649 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY
AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE FOR TODAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH
AS AN AREA OF VORTICITY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FLOW
REMAINS WEAK TODAY...THEREFORE LIGHT WINDS. CLOUDS ARE STILL TOUGH
TO FIGURE OUT...LOTS OF CLOUDS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING...THINK
WE MAY SEE SOME BREAKS LATER TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE IN THE 20S ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...COOLER ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN CWA AND WARMER SOUTH. AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WE MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
OUR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES IN VERMONT. HAVE MENTIONED JUST A CHANCE
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...QUIET DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CLOUDS ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE AREA. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME CLEARING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH...WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 30S. WILL SEE SOME CLEARING MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM. VERY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND CLOUDS INCREASE...A MILD
DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 40S IN PARTS OF OUR AREA.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AS A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EST SUNDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA
OF RAINY AND POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY INTO
THE MORNING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS DAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS ACROSS CANADIAN MARITIMES AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ALOFT WILL RESULT IN INCREASED
FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN TO BECOME
RATHER WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. COULD BE A FEW POCKETS OF
SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM...BUT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN.

CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE FURTHER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST. STRONG SHORTWAVE
ROUNDS BASE OF THE TROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST.
DEEP AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
850 MB WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD
INDICATED...AND FLOW NOW PROJECTED TO BE MORE SOUTHERLY THAN
SOUTHEAST. STILL LOOKING AT A 40-50 KT 850 MB JET HOWEVER. BUT
WITH LESS OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING WOULD NOT BE
QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT. BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HIGH
WINDS CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PERHAPS ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM...WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL
AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
AMOUNTS WILL VARY A BIT DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS. HIGHEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG SOUTH FACING
SLOPES OF SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
OVER NORTHWEST VERMONT AND FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK. WITH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...AND
LITTLE DROPOFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MILD
TEMPS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THE SNOWMELT COMBINED
WITH THE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN SMALL STREAMS. RIGHT NOW RIVER
GAUGES ARE SHOWING RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE LOW...SO WHILE SOME
MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RIVER
FLOODING ISSUES. RAIN CONTINUES EARLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY...THEN SOME
DRYING EXPECTED WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING.
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS COLDER AIR
RETURNS. TEMPS IN VALLEYS REMAIN MILD THOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH READINGS IN THE 40S.

DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS
A CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE RESULT BEING LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND SOME PATCHY FOG AT TIMES. IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AT
MOST SITES EXCEPT RUT/MPV WHERE MVFR/VFR EXPECTED. DURING THE DAY
TODAY...AREAS WITH IFR IMPROVE TO MVFR...AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY
SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR A TIME. MORE OF THE SAME FOR TONIGHT
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS
OF IFR. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MON-00Z TUE...LOW CLOUDS WITH MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-18Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 211149
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
649 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY
AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE FOR TODAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH
AS AN AREA OF VORTICITY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FLOW
REMAINS WEAK TODAY...THEREFORE LIGHT WINDS. CLOUDS ARE STILL TOUGH
TO FIGURE OUT...LOTS OF CLOUDS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING...THINK
WE MAY SEE SOME BREAKS LATER TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE IN THE 20S ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...COOLER ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN CWA AND WARMER SOUTH. AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WE MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
OUR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES IN VERMONT. HAVE MENTIONED JUST A CHANCE
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...QUIET DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CLOUDS ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE AREA. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME CLEARING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH...WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 30S. WILL SEE SOME CLEARING MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM. VERY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND CLOUDS INCREASE...A MILD
DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 40S IN PARTS OF OUR AREA.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AS A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EST SUNDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA
OF RAINY AND POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY INTO
THE MORNING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS DAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS ACROSS CANADIAN MARITIMES AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ALOFT WILL RESULT IN INCREASED
FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN TO BECOME
RATHER WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. COULD BE A FEW POCKETS OF
SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM...BUT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN.

CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE FURTHER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST. STRONG SHORTWAVE
ROUNDS BASE OF THE TROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST.
DEEP AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
850 MB WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD
INDICATED...AND FLOW NOW PROJECTED TO BE MORE SOUTHERLY THAN
SOUTHEAST. STILL LOOKING AT A 40-50 KT 850 MB JET HOWEVER. BUT
WITH LESS OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING WOULD NOT BE
QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT. BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HIGH
WINDS CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PERHAPS ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM...WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL
AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
AMOUNTS WILL VARY A BIT DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS. HIGHEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG SOUTH FACING
SLOPES OF SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
OVER NORTHWEST VERMONT AND FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK. WITH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...AND
LITTLE DROPOFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MILD
TEMPS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THE SNOWMELT COMBINED
WITH THE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN SMALL STREAMS. RIGHT NOW RIVER
GAUGES ARE SHOWING RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE LOW...SO WHILE SOME
MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RIVER
FLOODING ISSUES. RAIN CONTINUES EARLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY...THEN SOME
DRYING EXPECTED WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING.
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS COLDER AIR
RETURNS. TEMPS IN VALLEYS REMAIN MILD THOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH READINGS IN THE 40S.

DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS
A CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE RESULT BEING LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND SOME PATCHY FOG AT TIMES. IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AT
MOST SITES EXCEPT RUT/MPV WHERE MVFR/VFR EXPECTED. DURING THE DAY
TODAY...AREAS WITH IFR IMPROVE TO MVFR...AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY
SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR A TIME. MORE OF THE SAME FOR TONIGHT
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS
OF IFR. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MON-00Z TUE...LOW CLOUDS WITH MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-18Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 211149
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
649 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY
AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE FOR TODAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH
AS AN AREA OF VORTICITY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FLOW
REMAINS WEAK TODAY...THEREFORE LIGHT WINDS. CLOUDS ARE STILL TOUGH
TO FIGURE OUT...LOTS OF CLOUDS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING...THINK
WE MAY SEE SOME BREAKS LATER TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE IN THE 20S ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...COOLER ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN CWA AND WARMER SOUTH. AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WE MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
OUR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES IN VERMONT. HAVE MENTIONED JUST A CHANCE
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...QUIET DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CLOUDS ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE AREA. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME CLEARING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH...WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 30S. WILL SEE SOME CLEARING MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM. VERY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND CLOUDS INCREASE...A MILD
DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 40S IN PARTS OF OUR AREA.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AS A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EST SUNDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA
OF RAINY AND POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY INTO
THE MORNING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS DAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS ACROSS CANADIAN MARITIMES AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ALOFT WILL RESULT IN INCREASED
FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN TO BECOME
RATHER WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. COULD BE A FEW POCKETS OF
SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM...BUT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN.

CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE FURTHER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST. STRONG SHORTWAVE
ROUNDS BASE OF THE TROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST.
DEEP AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
850 MB WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD
INDICATED...AND FLOW NOW PROJECTED TO BE MORE SOUTHERLY THAN
SOUTHEAST. STILL LOOKING AT A 40-50 KT 850 MB JET HOWEVER. BUT
WITH LESS OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING WOULD NOT BE
QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT. BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HIGH
WINDS CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PERHAPS ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM...WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL
AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
AMOUNTS WILL VARY A BIT DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS. HIGHEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG SOUTH FACING
SLOPES OF SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
OVER NORTHWEST VERMONT AND FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK. WITH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...AND
LITTLE DROPOFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MILD
TEMPS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THE SNOWMELT COMBINED
WITH THE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN SMALL STREAMS. RIGHT NOW RIVER
GAUGES ARE SHOWING RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE LOW...SO WHILE SOME
MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RIVER
FLOODING ISSUES. RAIN CONTINUES EARLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY...THEN SOME
DRYING EXPECTED WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING.
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS COLDER AIR
RETURNS. TEMPS IN VALLEYS REMAIN MILD THOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH READINGS IN THE 40S.

DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS
A CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE RESULT BEING LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND SOME PATCHY FOG AT TIMES. IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AT
MOST SITES EXCEPT RUT/MPV WHERE MVFR/VFR EXPECTED. DURING THE DAY
TODAY...AREAS WITH IFR IMPROVE TO MVFR...AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY
SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR A TIME. MORE OF THE SAME FOR TONIGHT
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS
OF IFR. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MON-00Z TUE...LOW CLOUDS WITH MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-18Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KALY 211138
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
638 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...
BRINGING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH SOME LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT...AND A PERIOD OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS MORNING BASED
ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

LITTLE LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SEEN ON KOKX RADAR JUST SOUTH OF
EASTERN LONG ISLAND...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK UPPER ENERGY
TRACKING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRACKING INTO OUR
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT SNOW HAS SPREAD INLAND INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TACONICS...
ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE IS SO SHALLOW AND AT SUCH LOW LEVELS...AREA
RADARS ARE NOT FULLY PICKING UP ON THE AREAL EXTENT AND INTENSITY
OF THE SNOW.

SOME GUIDANCE IS RESOLVING THESE SMALL SCALE FEATURES AND
SUGGESTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN TACONICS...NW CT AND THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES.
SO...HIGH CHANCES TO LIKELY IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING IN
THOSE AREAS...WITH PERHAPS AROUND AN INCH IN SOME PLACES BEFORE
SNOW DECREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SOME FLURRIES EVEN INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH CHANCES FOR BRIEF INTERVALS OF LIGHT SNOW
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS AND
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY...
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. HIGHS
AROUND 30 TO THE MID 30S...SOME 20S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME
BRIEF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP MUCH. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
WINDS...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WARM ADVECTION SLOWLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING. LIGHT
WIND FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
MIX OUT CLOUD COVER...BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD HELP ANY CLEARING
TO THE SOUTH SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH...UNTIL THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST SPREAD OVER
THE REGION. STILL...WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER...HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
30S.

SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AS
DOES WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED IN SE CANADA...SO SURFACE FLOW SHOULD BE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. AGEOSTROPHIC LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST SUGGEST THAT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
IN THE REGION COULD HELP TEMPERATURES FALL TO WET BULB LEVELS...
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SNOW AND/OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IN SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT ION THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...JUST ABOVE FREEZING
IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...BUT POTENTIALLY CLOSE TO FREEZING
IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. NO WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES YET...WITH
JUST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN BUT WILL INCLUDE IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK BECAUSE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IF FREEZING RAIN
BECOMES LIKELY IN SOME AREAS AS THE EVENT NEARS.

ALL PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY AND SLOWLY INCREASES
IN COVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHEN. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...BUT
AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER EXPECTED FROM CHRISTMAS EVE TO
CHRISTMAS DAY...AS A STORM STORM SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLE MULTIPLE
HAZARDS AFFECTS THE REGION. THE MAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS SYSTEM.

BY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY OUR REGION SHOULD BE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED IN A
WARM SECTOR ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. A DEEP
TROUGH WILL BE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...MIDWEST AND TENN VALLEY REGIONS...WITH A RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BOTH IN THE LOW LEVELS AND ALOFT WILL BE IN
PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DESPITE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
LOWER TO MID 50S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST.

SOUTHERLY WIND FIELD WILL BE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW. HOW STRONG WIND SPEEDS END UP
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL DEPEND ON DEGREE OF MIXING. SURGES OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH PWATS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO +4 TO +5 STDEV BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH SNOW MELT IN HIGHER TERRAIN
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR DETAILS.

THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING...TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE AREA...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT THAT LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
AND DEEPEN IN THE PROCESS. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW LOOKS
TO CROSS OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SOMETIME EARLY CHRISTMAS
MORNING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BURST
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. STEADY RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF TO
SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CHRISTMAS
MORNING. AS THE LOW DEEPENS FURTHER ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
CHRISTMAS DAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS COULD BE
MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WITH BETTER MIXING. HIGH TEMPS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOPING BRISK WESTERLY WIND.

OTHER THAN A FEW UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL TURN MUCH COLDER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT WILL STILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAKER DISTURBANCE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
MAY BRING SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH LIGHT QPF.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TONIGHT.

SOLID BATCH OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH CIGS IN MVFR
RANGE. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO BRUSH THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 16Z-18Z FOR KALB/KPOU/KPSF
WITH MVFR VSBY/CIGS. LESS MOISTURE ANTICIPATED FARTHER NORTH
AROUND KGFL...SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH THERE. CIGS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO VFR RANGE AFTER 18Z...EXCEPT FOR KPSF WHERE MVFR CIGS
SHOULD PREVAIL. CLOUDS MAY TEND TO BREAK UP TOWARDS EVENING...BUT
EXPECTING BKN CIGS TO PREVAIL.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY LESS THAN 5 KTS THROUGH PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 211138
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
638 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...
BRINGING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH SOME LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT...AND A PERIOD OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS MORNING BASED
ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

LITTLE LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SEEN ON KOKX RADAR JUST SOUTH OF
EASTERN LONG ISLAND...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK UPPER ENERGY
TRACKING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRACKING INTO OUR
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT SNOW HAS SPREAD INLAND INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TACONICS...
ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE IS SO SHALLOW AND AT SUCH LOW LEVELS...AREA
RADARS ARE NOT FULLY PICKING UP ON THE AREAL EXTENT AND INTENSITY
OF THE SNOW.

SOME GUIDANCE IS RESOLVING THESE SMALL SCALE FEATURES AND
SUGGESTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN TACONICS...NW CT AND THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES.
SO...HIGH CHANCES TO LIKELY IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING IN
THOSE AREAS...WITH PERHAPS AROUND AN INCH IN SOME PLACES BEFORE
SNOW DECREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SOME FLURRIES EVEN INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH CHANCES FOR BRIEF INTERVALS OF LIGHT SNOW
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS AND
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY...
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. HIGHS
AROUND 30 TO THE MID 30S...SOME 20S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME
BRIEF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP MUCH. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
WINDS...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WARM ADVECTION SLOWLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING. LIGHT
WIND FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
MIX OUT CLOUD COVER...BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD HELP ANY CLEARING
TO THE SOUTH SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH...UNTIL THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST SPREAD OVER
THE REGION. STILL...WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER...HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
30S.

SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AS
DOES WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED IN SE CANADA...SO SURFACE FLOW SHOULD BE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. AGEOSTROPHIC LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST SUGGEST THAT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
IN THE REGION COULD HELP TEMPERATURES FALL TO WET BULB LEVELS...
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SNOW AND/OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IN SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT ION THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...JUST ABOVE FREEZING
IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...BUT POTENTIALLY CLOSE TO FREEZING
IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. NO WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES YET...WITH
JUST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN BUT WILL INCLUDE IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK BECAUSE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IF FREEZING RAIN
BECOMES LIKELY IN SOME AREAS AS THE EVENT NEARS.

ALL PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY AND SLOWLY INCREASES
IN COVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHEN. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...BUT
AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER EXPECTED FROM CHRISTMAS EVE TO
CHRISTMAS DAY...AS A STORM STORM SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLE MULTIPLE
HAZARDS AFFECTS THE REGION. THE MAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS SYSTEM.

BY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY OUR REGION SHOULD BE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED IN A
WARM SECTOR ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. A DEEP
TROUGH WILL BE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...MIDWEST AND TENN VALLEY REGIONS...WITH A RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BOTH IN THE LOW LEVELS AND ALOFT WILL BE IN
PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DESPITE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
LOWER TO MID 50S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST.

SOUTHERLY WIND FIELD WILL BE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW. HOW STRONG WIND SPEEDS END UP
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL DEPEND ON DEGREE OF MIXING. SURGES OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH PWATS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO +4 TO +5 STDEV BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH SNOW MELT IN HIGHER TERRAIN
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR DETAILS.

THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING...TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE AREA...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT THAT LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
AND DEEPEN IN THE PROCESS. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW LOOKS
TO CROSS OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SOMETIME EARLY CHRISTMAS
MORNING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BURST
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. STEADY RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF TO
SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CHRISTMAS
MORNING. AS THE LOW DEEPENS FURTHER ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
CHRISTMAS DAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS COULD BE
MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WITH BETTER MIXING. HIGH TEMPS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOPING BRISK WESTERLY WIND.

OTHER THAN A FEW UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL TURN MUCH COLDER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT WILL STILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAKER DISTURBANCE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
MAY BRING SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH LIGHT QPF.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TONIGHT.

SOLID BATCH OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH CIGS IN MVFR
RANGE. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO BRUSH THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 16Z-18Z FOR KALB/KPOU/KPSF
WITH MVFR VSBY/CIGS. LESS MOISTURE ANTICIPATED FARTHER NORTH
AROUND KGFL...SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH THERE. CIGS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO VFR RANGE AFTER 18Z...EXCEPT FOR KPSF WHERE MVFR CIGS
SHOULD PREVAIL. CLOUDS MAY TEND TO BREAK UP TOWARDS EVENING...BUT
EXPECTING BKN CIGS TO PREVAIL.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY LESS THAN 5 KTS THROUGH PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 211130
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
630 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER LASTING
INTO MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND PRODUCE RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR
WET SNOW SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
CONTINUING TO CAUSE LIGHT LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA...
RESULTING PERSISTENCE OF STRATUS TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION BASED
AROUND 3K FEET. MID LEVEL MOISTURE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA WAS ALSO RESULTING IN SOME
FLURRIES...BUT A LAYER OF DRY AIR BETWEEN STRATUS AND MID LEVEL DECK
SHOULD PREVENT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM OCCURRING.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
AMPLIFY OVER THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS STRONG WEST TO
EAST ORIENTED JET OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL BACKING/INCREASE OF
LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA WHICH MAY SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE LOW
CLOUDS BY TONIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY CLOUDY PERIOD AS
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST.

THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN A SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER/MID 30S AND LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LIE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WHICH WILL PERSIST IN SPITE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE. ON MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT
INCREASING MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WILL REINFORCE
THE CLOUDY SKIES.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD
OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF A SHOWER ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK.
MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT BECOME FULLY SATURATED UNTIL CHRISTMAS EVE
MORNING SO THERE WILL BE A MOISTENING FROM ALOFT TO KEEP LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS FROM EVAPORATING ON THEIR WAY TO THE GROUND. BEST CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ESPECIALLY BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AND AVOID THE POSSIBILITY OF A FREEZING WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION.

THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND +10C. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THEN TEMPS PUSH WELL INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND WILL
STEADY OR CONTINUE TO RISE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHEST GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY CONTINUES TO BE
FOCUSED ON A STORM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES
AND SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THIS STORM.

ON CHRISTMAS EVE WARM MOIST AIR WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTH AHEAD
OF THIS STORM BRINGING RAIN AND VERY MILD TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. NAEFS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR
ONE INCH WHICH IS NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN A 30 YEAR PWAT CLIMO.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S CHRISTMAS EVE
SHOULD YIELD SOME MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THESE
SHOWERS MAY HELP TO DRAG DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A 50
KNOT 850MB JET STREAKING OVERHEAD.

A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
NEW YORK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL NEEDS
TO BE FINE TUNED AS THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS.
THIS FRONT WILL BE THE LEADING EDGE TO COOLER TEMPS. IT IS IMPORTANT
TO MENTION THAT WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THE
SOURCE REGION OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC BASED AND NOT ARCTIC
BASED SO THIS LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A REDUCED THREAT
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE
WARMER WITH TODAYS RUNS ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN -5C AND -8C. SURFACE
TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 30S ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND LOW 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LATEST FORECAST NOW REFLECTS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LAKE SHORES AND LOWER TERRAIN WITH SOME
LIMITED SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT
IS ALSO POSSIBLE PENDING AVAILABLE POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE.

ALTHOUGH THERE WAS A CONCERN OF HIGHER WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
THAT THE HIGHER WINDS ARE PREFRONTAL AND STILL ABOVE A FAIRLY STEEP
TEMPERATURE INVERSION. WINDS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT APPEAR TO BE
MORE WESTERLY AND WITH LESS MAGNITUDE...STILL POSSIBLE FOR A QUICK
BLAST OF GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 KNOTS ACCOMPANYING THE THE COLD FRONT.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. FURTHER OUT WE WILL BE WATCHING NEXT WEEKEND FOR
ANOTHER POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG WINDS AND MORE RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST COMMON THIS MORNING...EXPECT A TRANSITION TO
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND FLAT WAVE ACTION. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME ON
MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON BOTH LAKES...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS
COOLER AIR PUSHES BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WCH
LONG TERM...SMITH/WCH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA




000
FXUS61 KBUF 211130
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
630 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER LASTING
INTO MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND PRODUCE RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR
WET SNOW SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
CONTINUING TO CAUSE LIGHT LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA...
RESULTING PERSISTENCE OF STRATUS TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION BASED
AROUND 3K FEET. MID LEVEL MOISTURE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA WAS ALSO RESULTING IN SOME
FLURRIES...BUT A LAYER OF DRY AIR BETWEEN STRATUS AND MID LEVEL DECK
SHOULD PREVENT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM OCCURRING.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
AMPLIFY OVER THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS STRONG WEST TO
EAST ORIENTED JET OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL BACKING/INCREASE OF
LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA WHICH MAY SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE LOW
CLOUDS BY TONIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY CLOUDY PERIOD AS
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST.

THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN A SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER/MID 30S AND LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LIE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WHICH WILL PERSIST IN SPITE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE. ON MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT
INCREASING MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WILL REINFORCE
THE CLOUDY SKIES.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD
OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF A SHOWER ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK.
MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT BECOME FULLY SATURATED UNTIL CHRISTMAS EVE
MORNING SO THERE WILL BE A MOISTENING FROM ALOFT TO KEEP LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS FROM EVAPORATING ON THEIR WAY TO THE GROUND. BEST CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ESPECIALLY BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AND AVOID THE POSSIBILITY OF A FREEZING WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION.

THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND +10C. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THEN TEMPS PUSH WELL INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND WILL
STEADY OR CONTINUE TO RISE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHEST GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY CONTINUES TO BE
FOCUSED ON A STORM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES
AND SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THIS STORM.

ON CHRISTMAS EVE WARM MOIST AIR WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTH AHEAD
OF THIS STORM BRINGING RAIN AND VERY MILD TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. NAEFS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR
ONE INCH WHICH IS NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN A 30 YEAR PWAT CLIMO.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S CHRISTMAS EVE
SHOULD YIELD SOME MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THESE
SHOWERS MAY HELP TO DRAG DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A 50
KNOT 850MB JET STREAKING OVERHEAD.

A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
NEW YORK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL NEEDS
TO BE FINE TUNED AS THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS.
THIS FRONT WILL BE THE LEADING EDGE TO COOLER TEMPS. IT IS IMPORTANT
TO MENTION THAT WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THE
SOURCE REGION OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC BASED AND NOT ARCTIC
BASED SO THIS LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A REDUCED THREAT
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE
WARMER WITH TODAYS RUNS ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN -5C AND -8C. SURFACE
TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 30S ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND LOW 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LATEST FORECAST NOW REFLECTS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LAKE SHORES AND LOWER TERRAIN WITH SOME
LIMITED SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT
IS ALSO POSSIBLE PENDING AVAILABLE POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE.

ALTHOUGH THERE WAS A CONCERN OF HIGHER WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
THAT THE HIGHER WINDS ARE PREFRONTAL AND STILL ABOVE A FAIRLY STEEP
TEMPERATURE INVERSION. WINDS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT APPEAR TO BE
MORE WESTERLY AND WITH LESS MAGNITUDE...STILL POSSIBLE FOR A QUICK
BLAST OF GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 KNOTS ACCOMPANYING THE THE COLD FRONT.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. FURTHER OUT WE WILL BE WATCHING NEXT WEEKEND FOR
ANOTHER POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG WINDS AND MORE RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST COMMON THIS MORNING...EXPECT A TRANSITION TO
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND FLAT WAVE ACTION. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME ON
MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON BOTH LAKES...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS
COOLER AIR PUSHES BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WCH
LONG TERM...SMITH/WCH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA





000
FXUS61 KOKX 211121
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
621 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING NEARBY. HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AS IT
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE ON CHRISTMAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL THEN AFFECT THE
REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES FOR DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ZONES WILL ACT AS A FOCUS
FOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...AND LIFT WILL BE PROVIDED ALOFT AS A
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH. PCPN TYPE MAINLY SNOW WITH SUFFICIENT
ICE NUCLEI LIKELY PRESENT...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS ACROSS EASTERN
LONG ISLAND COMPLICATE THE FORECAST. PROBABLY A MIXTURE OF LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW THERE...PROBABLY EVEN MOSTLY OR ALL RAIN OVER THE
PARTS OF THE FORKS REGION. IN SHORT...TRACE TO HALF INCH OF SNOW
CURRENTLY FORECAST OVER LONG ISLAND...WITH UP TO AROUND AN INCH
ACROSS PARTS OF SE CT. MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA COULD GET A
FLURRY OR TWO THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LIFT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXIT EAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WEST.
WILL GO WITH SCT FLURRIES OVER LI AND CT...AND PCPN TYPE OF
SPRINKLES ALSO PROBABLY PRESENT EARLY IN THE EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL SECTIONS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO HEAD NORTH. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW
LEVEL WINDS HERE VEER TO THE EAST AND AID LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE CENTER OF THE
LOW WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN RESULT...BUT RESERVED FOR THE AFTERNOON.

THE LOW CENTER WEAKENS AS IT HEADS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW STILL STRENGTHENS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STILL INCREASES ON AN ENE FLOW...AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY. CHC POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT RAIN FOR MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...FOR
SOME NW SECTIONS...MODELS SHOWING A WARM NOSE ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR
A CHANCE OF SLEET DURING THE EVENING...THEN POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN
AS THE WARMEST PART OF THE NOSE EXCEEDS 3C AND SURFACE TEMPS HOVER
AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...BUT THE
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE VICINITY. ECMWF OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY WETTER FOR TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS CONSISTENTLY
DRIER...AND THE NAM SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN DEPENDING ON LOCATION. WILL
CAP POPS AT 50% AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
FREEZING RAIN STILL POSSIBLE EARLY ON IN THE MORNING FOR THE FAR NW
PORTION OF THE CWA...OTHERWISE...LIGHT RAIN. RAIN THEN BECOMES MORE
LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS US CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.
MODELS SHOW A STRONG PRIMARY LOW CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. A
WEAKER SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER OR TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS IN
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BEFORE PASSING NORTH OF US WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WEDS/WEDS EVENING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...SO BY CHRISTMAS MORNING...SHOWERS STILL LIKELY EARLY ON FOR
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA...WITH MAINLY LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. BY NOON...LIKELY DRY EVERYWHERE.

BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR WEDS THRU THURS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES
THROUGH THE EASTERN ZONES WEDS AFTN/EVE...BUT STRONG GUSTS WILL
PROBABLY HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN THROUGH AN INVERSION.
STRONGER GUSTS MAY BE REALIZED DURING THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COURTESY OF BETTER MIXING. LOOKS LIKE WE FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA HOWEVER. WILL NEED TO KEEP AND EYE ON THIS TO SEE IF THE
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE. HIGHS ON WEDS IN WELL INTO THE 50S...AND WITH A MODERATE
WSW FLOW AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS COOLER
TEMPS...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMALS. THEN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER
INLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BRIEF IFR VSBYS IN -SN ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. FOR EASTERN TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

MVFR CIGS RETURN TO THE TERMINALS AFTER 00Z MONDAY.

LGT/VRB WINDS WILL BECOME NW AT 5-7 KT BY 14Z. WINDS WILL BECOME
LGT/VRB AGAIN TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E FLOW. RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT.
.TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY IN RAIN. E WINDS
10-20 KT...BECOMING SE.
.WEDNESDAY...HIGH IMPACT EVENT BECOMING LIKELY. IFR CONDS WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND SE WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS. WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.THURSDAY...SUB-VFR CONDS IN THE MORNING IN RAIN SHOWERS. VFR
CONDS BY AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS NORTH OF THE WATERS. NORTH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
ALONG WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN OR 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL
OTHER WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...WITH SEAS ALSO
REMAINING BELOW 5 FT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA
WATERS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. SMALL CRAFT WIND
AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND ACROSS ALL THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. THEN IN THE COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY WIND GUSTS WILL BE GALE FORCE ACROSS
ALL THE WATERS AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING
TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LATER WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD TOTAL 1
TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC










000
FXUS61 KOKX 211121
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
621 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING NEARBY. HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AS IT
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE ON CHRISTMAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL THEN AFFECT THE
REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES FOR DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ZONES WILL ACT AS A FOCUS
FOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...AND LIFT WILL BE PROVIDED ALOFT AS A
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH. PCPN TYPE MAINLY SNOW WITH SUFFICIENT
ICE NUCLEI LIKELY PRESENT...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS ACROSS EASTERN
LONG ISLAND COMPLICATE THE FORECAST. PROBABLY A MIXTURE OF LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW THERE...PROBABLY EVEN MOSTLY OR ALL RAIN OVER THE
PARTS OF THE FORKS REGION. IN SHORT...TRACE TO HALF INCH OF SNOW
CURRENTLY FORECAST OVER LONG ISLAND...WITH UP TO AROUND AN INCH
ACROSS PARTS OF SE CT. MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA COULD GET A
FLURRY OR TWO THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LIFT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXIT EAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WEST.
WILL GO WITH SCT FLURRIES OVER LI AND CT...AND PCPN TYPE OF
SPRINKLES ALSO PROBABLY PRESENT EARLY IN THE EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL SECTIONS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO HEAD NORTH. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW
LEVEL WINDS HERE VEER TO THE EAST AND AID LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE CENTER OF THE
LOW WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN RESULT...BUT RESERVED FOR THE AFTERNOON.

THE LOW CENTER WEAKENS AS IT HEADS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW STILL STRENGTHENS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STILL INCREASES ON AN ENE FLOW...AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY. CHC POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT RAIN FOR MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...FOR
SOME NW SECTIONS...MODELS SHOWING A WARM NOSE ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR
A CHANCE OF SLEET DURING THE EVENING...THEN POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN
AS THE WARMEST PART OF THE NOSE EXCEEDS 3C AND SURFACE TEMPS HOVER
AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...BUT THE
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE VICINITY. ECMWF OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY WETTER FOR TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS CONSISTENTLY
DRIER...AND THE NAM SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN DEPENDING ON LOCATION. WILL
CAP POPS AT 50% AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
FREEZING RAIN STILL POSSIBLE EARLY ON IN THE MORNING FOR THE FAR NW
PORTION OF THE CWA...OTHERWISE...LIGHT RAIN. RAIN THEN BECOMES MORE
LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS US CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.
MODELS SHOW A STRONG PRIMARY LOW CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. A
WEAKER SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER OR TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS IN
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BEFORE PASSING NORTH OF US WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WEDS/WEDS EVENING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...SO BY CHRISTMAS MORNING...SHOWERS STILL LIKELY EARLY ON FOR
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA...WITH MAINLY LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. BY NOON...LIKELY DRY EVERYWHERE.

BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR WEDS THRU THURS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES
THROUGH THE EASTERN ZONES WEDS AFTN/EVE...BUT STRONG GUSTS WILL
PROBABLY HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN THROUGH AN INVERSION.
STRONGER GUSTS MAY BE REALIZED DURING THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COURTESY OF BETTER MIXING. LOOKS LIKE WE FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA HOWEVER. WILL NEED TO KEEP AND EYE ON THIS TO SEE IF THE
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE. HIGHS ON WEDS IN WELL INTO THE 50S...AND WITH A MODERATE
WSW FLOW AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS COOLER
TEMPS...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMALS. THEN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER
INLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BRIEF IFR VSBYS IN -SN ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. FOR EASTERN TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

MVFR CIGS RETURN TO THE TERMINALS AFTER 00Z MONDAY.

LGT/VRB WINDS WILL BECOME NW AT 5-7 KT BY 14Z. WINDS WILL BECOME
LGT/VRB AGAIN TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E FLOW. RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT.
.TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY IN RAIN. E WINDS
10-20 KT...BECOMING SE.
.WEDNESDAY...HIGH IMPACT EVENT BECOMING LIKELY. IFR CONDS WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND SE WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS. WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.THURSDAY...SUB-VFR CONDS IN THE MORNING IN RAIN SHOWERS. VFR
CONDS BY AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS NORTH OF THE WATERS. NORTH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
ALONG WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN OR 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL
OTHER WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...WITH SEAS ALSO
REMAINING BELOW 5 FT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA
WATERS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. SMALL CRAFT WIND
AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND ACROSS ALL THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. THEN IN THE COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY WIND GUSTS WILL BE GALE FORCE ACROSS
ALL THE WATERS AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING
TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LATER WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD TOTAL 1
TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC










000
FXUS61 KOKX 211121
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
621 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING NEARBY. HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AS IT
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE ON CHRISTMAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL THEN AFFECT THE
REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES FOR DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ZONES WILL ACT AS A FOCUS
FOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...AND LIFT WILL BE PROVIDED ALOFT AS A
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH. PCPN TYPE MAINLY SNOW WITH SUFFICIENT
ICE NUCLEI LIKELY PRESENT...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS ACROSS EASTERN
LONG ISLAND COMPLICATE THE FORECAST. PROBABLY A MIXTURE OF LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW THERE...PROBABLY EVEN MOSTLY OR ALL RAIN OVER THE
PARTS OF THE FORKS REGION. IN SHORT...TRACE TO HALF INCH OF SNOW
CURRENTLY FORECAST OVER LONG ISLAND...WITH UP TO AROUND AN INCH
ACROSS PARTS OF SE CT. MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA COULD GET A
FLURRY OR TWO THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LIFT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXIT EAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WEST.
WILL GO WITH SCT FLURRIES OVER LI AND CT...AND PCPN TYPE OF
SPRINKLES ALSO PROBABLY PRESENT EARLY IN THE EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL SECTIONS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO HEAD NORTH. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW
LEVEL WINDS HERE VEER TO THE EAST AND AID LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE CENTER OF THE
LOW WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN RESULT...BUT RESERVED FOR THE AFTERNOON.

THE LOW CENTER WEAKENS AS IT HEADS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW STILL STRENGTHENS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STILL INCREASES ON AN ENE FLOW...AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY. CHC POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT RAIN FOR MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...FOR
SOME NW SECTIONS...MODELS SHOWING A WARM NOSE ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR
A CHANCE OF SLEET DURING THE EVENING...THEN POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN
AS THE WARMEST PART OF THE NOSE EXCEEDS 3C AND SURFACE TEMPS HOVER
AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...BUT THE
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE VICINITY. ECMWF OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY WETTER FOR TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS CONSISTENTLY
DRIER...AND THE NAM SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN DEPENDING ON LOCATION. WILL
CAP POPS AT 50% AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
FREEZING RAIN STILL POSSIBLE EARLY ON IN THE MORNING FOR THE FAR NW
PORTION OF THE CWA...OTHERWISE...LIGHT RAIN. RAIN THEN BECOMES MORE
LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS US CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.
MODELS SHOW A STRONG PRIMARY LOW CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. A
WEAKER SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER OR TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS IN
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BEFORE PASSING NORTH OF US WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WEDS/WEDS EVENING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...SO BY CHRISTMAS MORNING...SHOWERS STILL LIKELY EARLY ON FOR
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA...WITH MAINLY LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. BY NOON...LIKELY DRY EVERYWHERE.

BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR WEDS THRU THURS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES
THROUGH THE EASTERN ZONES WEDS AFTN/EVE...BUT STRONG GUSTS WILL
PROBABLY HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN THROUGH AN INVERSION.
STRONGER GUSTS MAY BE REALIZED DURING THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COURTESY OF BETTER MIXING. LOOKS LIKE WE FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA HOWEVER. WILL NEED TO KEEP AND EYE ON THIS TO SEE IF THE
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE. HIGHS ON WEDS IN WELL INTO THE 50S...AND WITH A MODERATE
WSW FLOW AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS COOLER
TEMPS...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMALS. THEN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER
INLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BRIEF IFR VSBYS IN -SN ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. FOR EASTERN TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

MVFR CIGS RETURN TO THE TERMINALS AFTER 00Z MONDAY.

LGT/VRB WINDS WILL BECOME NW AT 5-7 KT BY 14Z. WINDS WILL BECOME
LGT/VRB AGAIN TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E FLOW. RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT.
.TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY IN RAIN. E WINDS
10-20 KT...BECOMING SE.
.WEDNESDAY...HIGH IMPACT EVENT BECOMING LIKELY. IFR CONDS WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND SE WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS. WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.THURSDAY...SUB-VFR CONDS IN THE MORNING IN RAIN SHOWERS. VFR
CONDS BY AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS NORTH OF THE WATERS. NORTH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
ALONG WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN OR 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL
OTHER WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...WITH SEAS ALSO
REMAINING BELOW 5 FT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA
WATERS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. SMALL CRAFT WIND
AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND ACROSS ALL THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. THEN IN THE COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY WIND GUSTS WILL BE GALE FORCE ACROSS
ALL THE WATERS AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING
TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LATER WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD TOTAL 1
TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC










000
FXUS61 KOKX 211121
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
621 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING NEARBY. HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AS IT
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE ON CHRISTMAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL THEN AFFECT THE
REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES FOR DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ZONES WILL ACT AS A FOCUS
FOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...AND LIFT WILL BE PROVIDED ALOFT AS A
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH. PCPN TYPE MAINLY SNOW WITH SUFFICIENT
ICE NUCLEI LIKELY PRESENT...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS ACROSS EASTERN
LONG ISLAND COMPLICATE THE FORECAST. PROBABLY A MIXTURE OF LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW THERE...PROBABLY EVEN MOSTLY OR ALL RAIN OVER THE
PARTS OF THE FORKS REGION. IN SHORT...TRACE TO HALF INCH OF SNOW
CURRENTLY FORECAST OVER LONG ISLAND...WITH UP TO AROUND AN INCH
ACROSS PARTS OF SE CT. MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA COULD GET A
FLURRY OR TWO THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LIFT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXIT EAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WEST.
WILL GO WITH SCT FLURRIES OVER LI AND CT...AND PCPN TYPE OF
SPRINKLES ALSO PROBABLY PRESENT EARLY IN THE EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL SECTIONS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO HEAD NORTH. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW
LEVEL WINDS HERE VEER TO THE EAST AND AID LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE CENTER OF THE
LOW WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN RESULT...BUT RESERVED FOR THE AFTERNOON.

THE LOW CENTER WEAKENS AS IT HEADS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW STILL STRENGTHENS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STILL INCREASES ON AN ENE FLOW...AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY. CHC POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT RAIN FOR MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...FOR
SOME NW SECTIONS...MODELS SHOWING A WARM NOSE ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR
A CHANCE OF SLEET DURING THE EVENING...THEN POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN
AS THE WARMEST PART OF THE NOSE EXCEEDS 3C AND SURFACE TEMPS HOVER
AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...BUT THE
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE VICINITY. ECMWF OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY WETTER FOR TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS CONSISTENTLY
DRIER...AND THE NAM SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN DEPENDING ON LOCATION. WILL
CAP POPS AT 50% AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
FREEZING RAIN STILL POSSIBLE EARLY ON IN THE MORNING FOR THE FAR NW
PORTION OF THE CWA...OTHERWISE...LIGHT RAIN. RAIN THEN BECOMES MORE
LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS US CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.
MODELS SHOW A STRONG PRIMARY LOW CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. A
WEAKER SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER OR TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS IN
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BEFORE PASSING NORTH OF US WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WEDS/WEDS EVENING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...SO BY CHRISTMAS MORNING...SHOWERS STILL LIKELY EARLY ON FOR
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA...WITH MAINLY LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. BY NOON...LIKELY DRY EVERYWHERE.

BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR WEDS THRU THURS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES
THROUGH THE EASTERN ZONES WEDS AFTN/EVE...BUT STRONG GUSTS WILL
PROBABLY HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN THROUGH AN INVERSION.
STRONGER GUSTS MAY BE REALIZED DURING THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COURTESY OF BETTER MIXING. LOOKS LIKE WE FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA HOWEVER. WILL NEED TO KEEP AND EYE ON THIS TO SEE IF THE
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE. HIGHS ON WEDS IN WELL INTO THE 50S...AND WITH A MODERATE
WSW FLOW AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS COOLER
TEMPS...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMALS. THEN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER
INLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BRIEF IFR VSBYS IN -SN ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. FOR EASTERN TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

MVFR CIGS RETURN TO THE TERMINALS AFTER 00Z MONDAY.

LGT/VRB WINDS WILL BECOME NW AT 5-7 KT BY 14Z. WINDS WILL BECOME
LGT/VRB AGAIN TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E FLOW. RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT.
.TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY IN RAIN. E WINDS
10-20 KT...BECOMING SE.
.WEDNESDAY...HIGH IMPACT EVENT BECOMING LIKELY. IFR CONDS WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND SE WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS. WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.THURSDAY...SUB-VFR CONDS IN THE MORNING IN RAIN SHOWERS. VFR
CONDS BY AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS NORTH OF THE WATERS. NORTH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
ALONG WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN OR 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL
OTHER WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...WITH SEAS ALSO
REMAINING BELOW 5 FT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA
WATERS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. SMALL CRAFT WIND
AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND ACROSS ALL THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. THEN IN THE COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY WIND GUSTS WILL BE GALE FORCE ACROSS
ALL THE WATERS AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING
TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LATER WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD TOTAL 1
TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC










000
FXUS61 KALY 211115
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
615 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...
BRINGING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH SOME LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT...AND A PERIOD OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS MORNING BASED
ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

LITTLE LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SEEN ON KOKX RADAR JUST SOUTH OF
EASTERN LONG ISLAND...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK UPPER ENERGY
TRACKING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRACKING INTO OUR
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT SNOW HAS SPREAD INLAND INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TACONICS...
ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE IS SO SHALLOW AND AT SUCH LOW LEVELS...AREA
RADARS ARE NOT FULLY PICKING UP ON THE AREAL EXTENT AND INTENSITY
OF THE SNOW.

SOME GUIDANCE IS RESOLVING THESE SMALL SCALE FEATURES AND
SUGGESTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN TACONICS...NW CT AND THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES.
SO...HIGH CHANCES TO LIKELY IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING IN
THOSE AREAS...WITH PERHAPS AROUND AN INCH IN SOME PLACES BEFORE
SNOW DECREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SOME FLURRIES EVEN INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH CHANCES FOR BRIEF INTERVALS OF LIGHT SNOW
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS AND
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY...
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. HIGHS
AROUND 30 TO THE MID 30S...SOME 20S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME
BRIEF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP MUCH. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
WINDS...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WARM ADVECTION SLOWLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING. LIGHT
WIND FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
MIX OUT CLOUD COVER...BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD HELP ANY CLEARING
TO THE SOUTH SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH...UNTIL THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST SPREAD OVER
THE REGION. STILL...WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER...HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
30S.

SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AS
DOES WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED IN SE CANADA...SO SURFACE FLOW SHOULD BE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. AGEOSTROPHIC LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST SUGGEST THAT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
IN THE REGION COULD HELP TEMPERATURES FALL TO WET BULB LEVELS...
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SNOW AND/OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IN SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT ION THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...JUST ABOVE FREEZING
IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...BUT POTENTIALLY CLOSE TO FREEZING
IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. NO WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES YET...WITH
JUST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN BUT WILL INCLUDE IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK BECAUSE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IF FREEZING RAIN
BECOMES LIKELY IN SOME AREAS AS THE EVENT NEARS.

ALL PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY AND SLOWLY INCREASES
IN COVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHEN. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...BUT
AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER EXPECTED FROM CHRISTMAS EVE TO
CHRISTMAS DAY...AS A STORM STORM SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLE MULTIPLE
HAZARDS AFFECTS THE REGION. THE MAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS SYSTEM.

BY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY OUR REGION SHOULD BE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED IN A
WARM SECTOR ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. A DEEP
TROUGH WILL BE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...MIDWEST AND TENN VALLEY REGIONS...WITH A RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BOTH IN THE LOW LEVELS AND ALOFT WILL BE IN
PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DESPITE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
LOWER TO MID 50S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST.

SOUTHERLY WIND FIELD WILL BE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW. HOW STRONG WIND SPEEDS END UP
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL DEPEND ON DEGREE OF MIXING. SURGES OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH PWATS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO +4 TO +5 STDEV BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH SNOW MELT IN HIGHER TERRAIN
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR DETAILS.

THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING...TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE AREA...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT THAT LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
AND DEEPEN IN THE PROCESS. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW LOOKS
TO CROSS OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SOMETIME EARLY CHRISTMAS
MORNING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BURST
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. STEADY RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF TO
SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CHRISTMAS
MORNING. AS THE LOW DEEPENS FURTHER ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
CHRISTMAS DAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS COULD BE
MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WITH BETTER MIXING. HIGH TEMPS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOPING BRISK WESTERLY WIND.

OTHER THAN A FEW UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL TURN MUCH COLDER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT WILL STILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAKER DISTURBANCE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
MAY BRING SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH LIGHT QPF.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOLID BATCH OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH CIGS
GENERALLY EITHER MVFR OR VFR. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES BEFORE SUNRISE...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR
RANGE FOR ALL THE TERMINALS...WITH A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING FOR MAINLY KPSF AND POSSIBLY KPOU BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.
BEST CHANCE FOR OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT HIGHER
ELEVATION SITE KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO FOR IFR IN -SN IS MENTIONED
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. AT THIS TIME ONLY FLURRIES EXPECTED AT KPOU WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING. LESS MOISTURE ANTICIPATED FARTHER
NORTH AROUND KALB/KGFL...SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT THESE SITES.
ANY -SN WILL END BY AROUND 18Z...AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. CIGS IN MVFR/VFR RANGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD ENDING 06Z MONDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY LESS THAN 5 KTS THROUGH PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO
30.0 CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 211115
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
615 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...
BRINGING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH SOME LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT...AND A PERIOD OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS MORNING BASED
ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

LITTLE LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SEEN ON KOKX RADAR JUST SOUTH OF
EASTERN LONG ISLAND...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK UPPER ENERGY
TRACKING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRACKING INTO OUR
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT SNOW HAS SPREAD INLAND INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TACONICS...
ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE IS SO SHALLOW AND AT SUCH LOW LEVELS...AREA
RADARS ARE NOT FULLY PICKING UP ON THE AREAL EXTENT AND INTENSITY
OF THE SNOW.

SOME GUIDANCE IS RESOLVING THESE SMALL SCALE FEATURES AND
SUGGESTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN TACONICS...NW CT AND THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES.
SO...HIGH CHANCES TO LIKELY IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING IN
THOSE AREAS...WITH PERHAPS AROUND AN INCH IN SOME PLACES BEFORE
SNOW DECREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SOME FLURRIES EVEN INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH CHANCES FOR BRIEF INTERVALS OF LIGHT SNOW
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS AND
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY...
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. HIGHS
AROUND 30 TO THE MID 30S...SOME 20S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME
BRIEF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP MUCH. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
WINDS...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WARM ADVECTION SLOWLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING. LIGHT
WIND FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
MIX OUT CLOUD COVER...BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD HELP ANY CLEARING
TO THE SOUTH SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH...UNTIL THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST SPREAD OVER
THE REGION. STILL...WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER...HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
30S.

SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AS
DOES WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED IN SE CANADA...SO SURFACE FLOW SHOULD BE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. AGEOSTROPHIC LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST SUGGEST THAT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
IN THE REGION COULD HELP TEMPERATURES FALL TO WET BULB LEVELS...
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SNOW AND/OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IN SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT ION THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...JUST ABOVE FREEZING
IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...BUT POTENTIALLY CLOSE TO FREEZING
IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. NO WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES YET...WITH
JUST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN BUT WILL INCLUDE IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK BECAUSE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IF FREEZING RAIN
BECOMES LIKELY IN SOME AREAS AS THE EVENT NEARS.

ALL PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY AND SLOWLY INCREASES
IN COVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHEN. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...BUT
AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER EXPECTED FROM CHRISTMAS EVE TO
CHRISTMAS DAY...AS A STORM STORM SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLE MULTIPLE
HAZARDS AFFECTS THE REGION. THE MAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS SYSTEM.

BY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY OUR REGION SHOULD BE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED IN A
WARM SECTOR ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. A DEEP
TROUGH WILL BE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...MIDWEST AND TENN VALLEY REGIONS...WITH A RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BOTH IN THE LOW LEVELS AND ALOFT WILL BE IN
PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DESPITE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
LOWER TO MID 50S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST.

SOUTHERLY WIND FIELD WILL BE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW. HOW STRONG WIND SPEEDS END UP
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL DEPEND ON DEGREE OF MIXING. SURGES OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH PWATS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO +4 TO +5 STDEV BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH SNOW MELT IN HIGHER TERRAIN
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR DETAILS.

THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING...TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE AREA...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT THAT LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
AND DEEPEN IN THE PROCESS. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW LOOKS
TO CROSS OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SOMETIME EARLY CHRISTMAS
MORNING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BURST
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. STEADY RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF TO
SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CHRISTMAS
MORNING. AS THE LOW DEEPENS FURTHER ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
CHRISTMAS DAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS COULD BE
MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WITH BETTER MIXING. HIGH TEMPS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOPING BRISK WESTERLY WIND.

OTHER THAN A FEW UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL TURN MUCH COLDER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT WILL STILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAKER DISTURBANCE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
MAY BRING SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH LIGHT QPF.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOLID BATCH OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH CIGS
GENERALLY EITHER MVFR OR VFR. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES BEFORE SUNRISE...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR
RANGE FOR ALL THE TERMINALS...WITH A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING FOR MAINLY KPSF AND POSSIBLY KPOU BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.
BEST CHANCE FOR OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT HIGHER
ELEVATION SITE KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO FOR IFR IN -SN IS MENTIONED
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. AT THIS TIME ONLY FLURRIES EXPECTED AT KPOU WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING. LESS MOISTURE ANTICIPATED FARTHER
NORTH AROUND KALB/KGFL...SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT THESE SITES.
ANY -SN WILL END BY AROUND 18Z...AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. CIGS IN MVFR/VFR RANGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD ENDING 06Z MONDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY LESS THAN 5 KTS THROUGH PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO
30.0 CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 210959
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
459 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY
AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE FOR TODAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH
AS AN AREA OF VORTICITY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FLOW
REMAINS WEAK TODAY...THEREFORE LIGHT WINDS. CLOUDS ARE STILL TOUGH
TO FIGURE OUT...LOTS OF CLOUDS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING...THINK
WE MAY SEE SOME BREAKS LATER TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE IN THE 20S ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...COOLER ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN CWA AND WARMER SOUTH. AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WE MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
OUR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES IN VERMONT. HAVE MENTIONED JUST A CHANCE
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...QUIET DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CLOUDS ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE AREA. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME CLEARING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH...WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 30S. WILL SEE SOME CLEARING MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM. VERY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND CLOUDS INCREASE...A MILD
DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 40S IN PARTS OF OUR AREA.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AS A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EST SUNDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA
OF RAINY AND POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY INTO
THE MORNING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS DAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS ACROSS CANADIAN MARITIMES AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ALOFT WILL RESULT IN INCREASED
FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN TO BECOME
RATHER WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. COULD BE A FEW POCKETS OF
SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM...BUT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN.

CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE FURTHER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST. STRONG SHORTWAVE
ROUNDS BASE OF THE TROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST.
DEEP AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
850 MB WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD
INDICATED...AND FLOW NOW PROJECTED TO BE MORE SOUTHERLY THAN
SOUTHEAST. STILL LOOKING AT A 40-50 KT 850 MB JET HOWEVER. BUT
WITH LESS OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING WOULD NOT BE
QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT. BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HIGH
WINDS CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PERHAPS ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM...WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL
AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
AMOUNTS WILL VARY A BIT DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS. HIGHEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG SOUTH FACING
SLOPES OF SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
OVER NORTHWEST VERMONT AND FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK. WITH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...AND
LITTLE DROPOFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MILD
TEMPS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THE SNOWMELT COMBINED
WITH THE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN SMALL STREAMS. RIGHT NOW RIVER
GUAGES ARE SHOWING RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE LOW...SO WHILE SOME
MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RIVER
FLOODING ISSUES. RAIN CONTINUES EARLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY...THEN SOME
DRYING EXPECTED WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING.
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS COLDER AIR
RETURNS. TEMPS IN VALLEYS REMAIN MILD THOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH READINGS IN THE 40S.

DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS
A CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE RESULT BEING LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND SOME PATCHY FOG. IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AT MOST
SITES EXCEPT RUT/MPV WHERE MVFR EXPECTED. DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...AREAS WITH IFR IMPROVE TO MVFR...AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY
SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR A TIME. MORE OF THE SAME SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. EXPECT MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MON-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-18Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 210959
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
459 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY
AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE FOR TODAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH
AS AN AREA OF VORTICITY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FLOW
REMAINS WEAK TODAY...THEREFORE LIGHT WINDS. CLOUDS ARE STILL TOUGH
TO FIGURE OUT...LOTS OF CLOUDS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING...THINK
WE MAY SEE SOME BREAKS LATER TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE IN THE 20S ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...COOLER ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN CWA AND WARMER SOUTH. AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WE MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
OUR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES IN VERMONT. HAVE MENTIONED JUST A CHANCE
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...QUIET DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CLOUDS ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE AREA. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME CLEARING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH...WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 30S. WILL SEE SOME CLEARING MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM. VERY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND CLOUDS INCREASE...A MILD
DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 40S IN PARTS OF OUR AREA.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AS A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EST SUNDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA
OF RAINY AND POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY INTO
THE MORNING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS DAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS ACROSS CANADIAN MARITIMES AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ALOFT WILL RESULT IN INCREASED
FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN TO BECOME
RATHER WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. COULD BE A FEW POCKETS OF
SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM...BUT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN.

CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE FURTHER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST. STRONG SHORTWAVE
ROUNDS BASE OF THE TROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST.
DEEP AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
850 MB WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD
INDICATED...AND FLOW NOW PROJECTED TO BE MORE SOUTHERLY THAN
SOUTHEAST. STILL LOOKING AT A 40-50 KT 850 MB JET HOWEVER. BUT
WITH LESS OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING WOULD NOT BE
QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT. BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HIGH
WINDS CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PERHAPS ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM...WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL
AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
AMOUNTS WILL VARY A BIT DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS. HIGHEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG SOUTH FACING
SLOPES OF SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
OVER NORTHWEST VERMONT AND FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK. WITH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...AND
LITTLE DROPOFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MILD
TEMPS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THE SNOWMELT COMBINED
WITH THE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN SMALL STREAMS. RIGHT NOW RIVER
GUAGES ARE SHOWING RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE LOW...SO WHILE SOME
MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RIVER
FLOODING ISSUES. RAIN CONTINUES EARLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY...THEN SOME
DRYING EXPECTED WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING.
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS COLDER AIR
RETURNS. TEMPS IN VALLEYS REMAIN MILD THOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH READINGS IN THE 40S.

DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS
A CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE RESULT BEING LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND SOME PATCHY FOG. IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AT MOST
SITES EXCEPT RUT/MPV WHERE MVFR EXPECTED. DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...AREAS WITH IFR IMPROVE TO MVFR...AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY
SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR A TIME. MORE OF THE SAME SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. EXPECT MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MON-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-18Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 210959
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
459 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY
AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE FOR TODAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH
AS AN AREA OF VORTICITY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FLOW
REMAINS WEAK TODAY...THEREFORE LIGHT WINDS. CLOUDS ARE STILL TOUGH
TO FIGURE OUT...LOTS OF CLOUDS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING...THINK
WE MAY SEE SOME BREAKS LATER TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE IN THE 20S ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...COOLER ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN CWA AND WARMER SOUTH. AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WE MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
OUR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES IN VERMONT. HAVE MENTIONED JUST A CHANCE
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...QUIET DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CLOUDS ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE AREA. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME CLEARING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH...WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 30S. WILL SEE SOME CLEARING MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM. VERY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND CLOUDS INCREASE...A MILD
DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 40S IN PARTS OF OUR AREA.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AS A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EST SUNDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA
OF RAINY AND POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY INTO
THE MORNING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS DAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS ACROSS CANADIAN MARITIMES AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ALOFT WILL RESULT IN INCREASED
FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN TO BECOME
RATHER WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. COULD BE A FEW POCKETS OF
SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM...BUT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN.

CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE FURTHER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST. STRONG SHORTWAVE
ROUNDS BASE OF THE TROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST.
DEEP AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
850 MB WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD
INDICATED...AND FLOW NOW PROJECTED TO BE MORE SOUTHERLY THAN
SOUTHEAST. STILL LOOKING AT A 40-50 KT 850 MB JET HOWEVER. BUT
WITH LESS OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING WOULD NOT BE
QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT. BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HIGH
WINDS CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PERHAPS ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM...WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL
AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
AMOUNTS WILL VARY A BIT DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS. HIGHEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG SOUTH FACING
SLOPES OF SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
OVER NORTHWEST VERMONT AND FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK. WITH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...AND
LITTLE DROPOFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MILD
TEMPS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THE SNOWMELT COMBINED
WITH THE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN SMALL STREAMS. RIGHT NOW RIVER
GUAGES ARE SHOWING RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE LOW...SO WHILE SOME
MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RIVER
FLOODING ISSUES. RAIN CONTINUES EARLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY...THEN SOME
DRYING EXPECTED WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING.
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS COLDER AIR
RETURNS. TEMPS IN VALLEYS REMAIN MILD THOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH READINGS IN THE 40S.

DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS
A CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE RESULT BEING LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND SOME PATCHY FOG. IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AT MOST
SITES EXCEPT RUT/MPV WHERE MVFR EXPECTED. DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...AREAS WITH IFR IMPROVE TO MVFR...AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY
SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR A TIME. MORE OF THE SAME SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. EXPECT MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MON-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-18Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 210959
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
459 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY
AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE FOR TODAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH
AS AN AREA OF VORTICITY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FLOW
REMAINS WEAK TODAY...THEREFORE LIGHT WINDS. CLOUDS ARE STILL TOUGH
TO FIGURE OUT...LOTS OF CLOUDS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING...THINK
WE MAY SEE SOME BREAKS LATER TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE IN THE 20S ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...COOLER ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN CWA AND WARMER SOUTH. AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WE MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
OUR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES IN VERMONT. HAVE MENTIONED JUST A CHANCE
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...QUIET DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CLOUDS ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE AREA. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME CLEARING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH...WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 30S. WILL SEE SOME CLEARING MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM. VERY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND CLOUDS INCREASE...A MILD
DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 40S IN PARTS OF OUR AREA.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AS A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EST SUNDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA
OF RAINY AND POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY INTO
THE MORNING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS DAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS ACROSS CANADIAN MARITIMES AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ALOFT WILL RESULT IN INCREASED
FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN TO BECOME
RATHER WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. COULD BE A FEW POCKETS OF
SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM...BUT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN.

CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE FURTHER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST. STRONG SHORTWAVE
ROUNDS BASE OF THE TROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST.
DEEP AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
850 MB WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD
INDICATED...AND FLOW NOW PROJECTED TO BE MORE SOUTHERLY THAN
SOUTHEAST. STILL LOOKING AT A 40-50 KT 850 MB JET HOWEVER. BUT
WITH LESS OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING WOULD NOT BE
QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT. BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HIGH
WINDS CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PERHAPS ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM...WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL
AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
AMOUNTS WILL VARY A BIT DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS. HIGHEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG SOUTH FACING
SLOPES OF SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
OVER NORTHWEST VERMONT AND FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK. WITH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...AND
LITTLE DROPOFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MILD
TEMPS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THE SNOWMELT COMBINED
WITH THE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN SMALL STREAMS. RIGHT NOW RIVER
GUAGES ARE SHOWING RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE LOW...SO WHILE SOME
MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RIVER
FLOODING ISSUES. RAIN CONTINUES EARLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY...THEN SOME
DRYING EXPECTED WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING.
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS COLDER AIR
RETURNS. TEMPS IN VALLEYS REMAIN MILD THOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH READINGS IN THE 40S.

DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS
A CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE RESULT BEING LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND SOME PATCHY FOG. IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AT MOST
SITES EXCEPT RUT/MPV WHERE MVFR EXPECTED. DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...AREAS WITH IFR IMPROVE TO MVFR...AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY
SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR A TIME. MORE OF THE SAME SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. EXPECT MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MON-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-18Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 210959
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
459 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY
AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE FOR TODAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH
AS AN AREA OF VORTICITY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FLOW
REMAINS WEAK TODAY...THEREFORE LIGHT WINDS. CLOUDS ARE STILL TOUGH
TO FIGURE OUT...LOTS OF CLOUDS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING...THINK
WE MAY SEE SOME BREAKS LATER TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE IN THE 20S ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...COOLER ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN CWA AND WARMER SOUTH. AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WE MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
OUR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES IN VERMONT. HAVE MENTIONED JUST A CHANCE
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...QUIET DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CLOUDS ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE AREA. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME CLEARING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH...WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 30S. WILL SEE SOME CLEARING MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM. VERY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND CLOUDS INCREASE...A MILD
DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 40S IN PARTS OF OUR AREA.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AS A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EST SUNDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA
OF RAINY AND POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY INTO
THE MORNING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS DAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS ACROSS CANADIAN MARITIMES AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ALOFT WILL RESULT IN INCREASED
FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN TO BECOME
RATHER WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. COULD BE A FEW POCKETS OF
SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM...BUT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN.

CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE FURTHER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST. STRONG SHORTWAVE
ROUNDS BASE OF THE TROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST.
DEEP AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
850 MB WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD
INDICATED...AND FLOW NOW PROJECTED TO BE MORE SOUTHERLY THAN
SOUTHEAST. STILL LOOKING AT A 40-50 KT 850 MB JET HOWEVER. BUT
WITH LESS OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING WOULD NOT BE
QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT. BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HIGH
WINDS CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PERHAPS ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM...WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL
AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
AMOUNTS WILL VARY A BIT DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS. HIGHEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG SOUTH FACING
SLOPES OF SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
OVER NORTHWEST VERMONT AND FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK. WITH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...AND
LITTLE DROPOFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MILD
TEMPS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THE SNOWMELT COMBINED
WITH THE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN SMALL STREAMS. RIGHT NOW RIVER
GUAGES ARE SHOWING RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE LOW...SO WHILE SOME
MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RIVER
FLOODING ISSUES. RAIN CONTINUES EARLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY...THEN SOME
DRYING EXPECTED WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING.
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS COLDER AIR
RETURNS. TEMPS IN VALLEYS REMAIN MILD THOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH READINGS IN THE 40S.

DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS
A CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE RESULT BEING LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND SOME PATCHY FOG. IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AT MOST
SITES EXCEPT RUT/MPV WHERE MVFR EXPECTED. DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...AREAS WITH IFR IMPROVE TO MVFR...AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY
SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR A TIME. MORE OF THE SAME SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. EXPECT MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MON-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-18Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 210959
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
459 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY
AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE FOR TODAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH
AS AN AREA OF VORTICITY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FLOW
REMAINS WEAK TODAY...THEREFORE LIGHT WINDS. CLOUDS ARE STILL TOUGH
TO FIGURE OUT...LOTS OF CLOUDS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING...THINK
WE MAY SEE SOME BREAKS LATER TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE IN THE 20S ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...COOLER ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN CWA AND WARMER SOUTH. AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WE MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
OUR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES IN VERMONT. HAVE MENTIONED JUST A CHANCE
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...QUIET DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CLOUDS ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE AREA. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME CLEARING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH...WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 30S. WILL SEE SOME CLEARING MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM. VERY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND CLOUDS INCREASE...A MILD
DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 40S IN PARTS OF OUR AREA.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AS A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EST SUNDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA
OF RAINY AND POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY INTO
THE MORNING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS DAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS ACROSS CANADIAN MARITIMES AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ALOFT WILL RESULT IN INCREASED
FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN TO BECOME
RATHER WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. COULD BE A FEW POCKETS OF
SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM...BUT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN.

CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE FURTHER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST. STRONG SHORTWAVE
ROUNDS BASE OF THE TROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST.
DEEP AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
850 MB WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD
INDICATED...AND FLOW NOW PROJECTED TO BE MORE SOUTHERLY THAN
SOUTHEAST. STILL LOOKING AT A 40-50 KT 850 MB JET HOWEVER. BUT
WITH LESS OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING WOULD NOT BE
QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT. BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HIGH
WINDS CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PERHAPS ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM...WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL
AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
AMOUNTS WILL VARY A BIT DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS. HIGHEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG SOUTH FACING
SLOPES OF SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
OVER NORTHWEST VERMONT AND FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK. WITH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...AND
LITTLE DROPOFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MILD
TEMPS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THE SNOWMELT COMBINED
WITH THE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN SMALL STREAMS. RIGHT NOW RIVER
GUAGES ARE SHOWING RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE LOW...SO WHILE SOME
MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RIVER
FLOODING ISSUES. RAIN CONTINUES EARLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY...THEN SOME
DRYING EXPECTED WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING.
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS COLDER AIR
RETURNS. TEMPS IN VALLEYS REMAIN MILD THOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH READINGS IN THE 40S.

DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS
A CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE RESULT BEING LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND SOME PATCHY FOG. IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AT MOST
SITES EXCEPT RUT/MPV WHERE MVFR EXPECTED. DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...AREAS WITH IFR IMPROVE TO MVFR...AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY
SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR A TIME. MORE OF THE SAME SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. EXPECT MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MON-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-18Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBGM 210934
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
434 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, INCLUDING
CHRISTMAS DAY, AND BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN SOME AREAS AT THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
MIX TO SNOW SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS DAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THIS STORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER DAY OF CLOUDS WHICH WILL MAKE DAY 14 IN A ROW. OPTIMISTIC
MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM JUST 24 HOURS AGO ARE MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC
FOR SUN CHANCES TODAY. 0Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A THIN LAYER
OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION, WHICH HAS BEEN A
BROKEN RECORD FOR US NOW. AT BEST WE MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER, NOT A TOTAL CLEAR OUT, LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE FAR
WEST AND SOUTH. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS, EXTENSIVE
CLOUDS BACK TO OUR WEST THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN AND OHIO DO NOT. A
STRAY FLURRY OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT OVERALL MOST
WILL REMAIN DRY. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AGAIN TODAY, AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 5-6 DEGREES WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES RIGHT NOW.

MONDAY MAY BE OUR MOST REALISTIC SHOT AT SUNSHINE AS THE FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY, AND THIS MAY HELP TO LIFT ANY LOW CLOUDS TO
OUR NORTH. RIGHT NOW OBS SUPPORT THIS BACK OVER KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE. AS OUR MID WEEK STORM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE COUNTRY, HOPEFULLY WE CAN FINALLY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
CLOUDS BEFORE WE TURN UNSETTLED AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
PERIOD WILL FEATURE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND A SLOWLY
YIELDING RIDGE AT THE SURFACE. WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES
LATE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR
ALOFT...PRECIPITATION APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE EXCLUSIVELY LIQUID.
FOR SOME LOCATIONS /MAINLY EASTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA/ THAT MAY
PRESENT A VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBILITY MONDAY NIGHT- EARLY
TUESDAY.

ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS STILL BRING LIGHT QPF INTO THE AREA WITH
THAT FIRST WAVE MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY TUESDAY...YET NAM AND
ESPECIALLY GFS HAVE VERY LITTLE. EITHER WAY...IT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT PRECIP THAT WILL HAVE TO FIGHT SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM STRONG HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES...AND DRY MID LEVELS. A LOT OF IT MAY TURN OUT
TO BE VIRGA. EASTERLY FLOW AGAINST THE POCONOS-CATSKILLS WILL MEAN
LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BEST THERE DUE TO UPSLOPING...OR AT
LEAST DRIZZLE...WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR MAJORITY OF THE
AREA. THE COLD AIR DAMMING VIA EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO MEAN LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE ON THE FRONT END OF THE WAVE UNTIL
TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING. THE USUAL SUSPECTS
WILL BE PRONE TO A VERY LIGHT ICING...POCONOS-CATSKILLS-MOHAWK
VALLEY-TUG HILL...BUT OF COURSE THAT WILL DEPEND ON ACTUAL
PRECIPITATION WHICH ITSELF IS NOT CERTAIN. MIDMORNING TUESDAY
ONWARD...ABOVE FREEZING FOR ENTIRE AREA AND THUS ONLY RAIN FOR
PRECIP TYPE.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GRADUALLY YIELDS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM INCREASINGLY MOIST SW-SSW FLOW ALONG
WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN. THUS RAIN CHANCES
AREAWIDE WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAWN
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
415 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY FOR WPC GUIDANCE AND MODEL TRENDS.
VERY MILD TEMPERATURES CHRISTMAS EVE...INCLUDING INTO THE
NIGHT...BEFORE COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES CHRISTMAS DAY. ALSO QUITE
WET WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES A GOOD 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL...AND SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF 850MB JET AROUND 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS. WHILE WE HAVE AREAL AVERAGE QPF OF ROUGHLY
HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RAINFALL ON A
LOCALIZED SCALE COULD BE HEAVIER. MODELS STILL DISAGREE A BIT ON
HOW LONG IT TAKES PRECIP TYPE TO CHANGE FROM STEADY RAIN TO
SCATTERED SNOW...BUT TREND IS SLIGHTLY LATER...SO CHRISTMAS DAY
MAY INCLUDE BOTH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INITIALLY BEFORE ALL SNOW
SHOWERS BY LATER IN THE DAY. COVERAGE OF THOSE SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL
BE HIGHEST IN NORTHERN TO CENTRAL NEW YORK...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
FEWER SHOWERS IN TWIN TIERS AND ESPECIALLY TOWARDS WYOMING VALLEY
OF NEPA DUE TO POTENTIAL DRY SLOTTING AS MENTIONED BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT OF THE
UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE POTENT UPPR LVL TROUGH
WILL BE LOCATED JUST ALONG AND EAST OF THE ROCKIES... AND IS
EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF TEXAS.
THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH AN OCCLUDED
SFC LOW NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO CANADA... WHILE
THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THESE TWO FEATURES AS THEY
MOVE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

ALL ACTIVITY BY TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN AS STRONG WAA WILL
BE PRESENT OVER THE REGION. SHOWERS ATTM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS
RAIN UNTIL 06Z ON THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER TO TRANSITION
RAIN OVER TO SNOW THAN THE GFS. IT IS STILL TO FAR OUT TO PIN
POINT HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL WITH THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY MORNING...
BUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT COUNTRY
AS WE MAY STILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT REGION THURSDAY.

AS MENTIONED BEFORE WINDS MAY BE A POTENTIAL IMPACT FROM THIS
STORM ON THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS WED
AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR... RISING INTO
THE LOW 50S. COLDER PACIFIC AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA... RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS ONLY
REACHING THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S ON THURS. FRI AND SAT TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S.

WE ARE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS STORM. FOR TRAVEL CONCERNS
PLEASE PAY ATTENTION TO FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERSISTENT MOISTURE UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION WILL KEEP CLOUDS
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH MIDDAY. GENERALLY MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED, BUT AT KAVP/KSYR/KRME SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS HANG ON RIGHT THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS IS MOST LIKELY AT KITH AND KBGM. I DID WANT TO
INDICATE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF IMPROVEMENT TOWARD EVENING ELSEWHERE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO THURS...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-THURS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...HEDEN






000
FXUS61 KBGM 210934
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
434 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, INCLUDING
CHRISTMAS DAY, AND BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN SOME AREAS AT THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
MIX TO SNOW SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS DAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THIS STORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER DAY OF CLOUDS WHICH WILL MAKE DAY 14 IN A ROW. OPTIMISTIC
MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM JUST 24 HOURS AGO ARE MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC
FOR SUN CHANCES TODAY. 0Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A THIN LAYER
OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION, WHICH HAS BEEN A
BROKEN RECORD FOR US NOW. AT BEST WE MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER, NOT A TOTAL CLEAR OUT, LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE FAR
WEST AND SOUTH. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS, EXTENSIVE
CLOUDS BACK TO OUR WEST THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN AND OHIO DO NOT. A
STRAY FLURRY OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT OVERALL MOST
WILL REMAIN DRY. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AGAIN TODAY, AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 5-6 DEGREES WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES RIGHT NOW.

MONDAY MAY BE OUR MOST REALISTIC SHOT AT SUNSHINE AS THE FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY, AND THIS MAY HELP TO LIFT ANY LOW CLOUDS TO
OUR NORTH. RIGHT NOW OBS SUPPORT THIS BACK OVER KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE. AS OUR MID WEEK STORM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE COUNTRY, HOPEFULLY WE CAN FINALLY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
CLOUDS BEFORE WE TURN UNSETTLED AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
PERIOD WILL FEATURE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND A SLOWLY
YIELDING RIDGE AT THE SURFACE. WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES
LATE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR
ALOFT...PRECIPITATION APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE EXCLUSIVELY LIQUID.
FOR SOME LOCATIONS /MAINLY EASTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA/ THAT MAY
PRESENT A VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBILITY MONDAY NIGHT- EARLY
TUESDAY.

ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS STILL BRING LIGHT QPF INTO THE AREA WITH
THAT FIRST WAVE MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY TUESDAY...YET NAM AND
ESPECIALLY GFS HAVE VERY LITTLE. EITHER WAY...IT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT PRECIP THAT WILL HAVE TO FIGHT SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM STRONG HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES...AND DRY MID LEVELS. A LOT OF IT MAY TURN OUT
TO BE VIRGA. EASTERLY FLOW AGAINST THE POCONOS-CATSKILLS WILL MEAN
LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BEST THERE DUE TO UPSLOPING...OR AT
LEAST DRIZZLE...WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR MAJORITY OF THE
AREA. THE COLD AIR DAMMING VIA EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO MEAN LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE ON THE FRONT END OF THE WAVE UNTIL
TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING. THE USUAL SUSPECTS
WILL BE PRONE TO A VERY LIGHT ICING...POCONOS-CATSKILLS-MOHAWK
VALLEY-TUG HILL...BUT OF COURSE THAT WILL DEPEND ON ACTUAL
PRECIPITATION WHICH ITSELF IS NOT CERTAIN. MIDMORNING TUESDAY
ONWARD...ABOVE FREEZING FOR ENTIRE AREA AND THUS ONLY RAIN FOR
PRECIP TYPE.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GRADUALLY YIELDS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM INCREASINGLY MOIST SW-SSW FLOW ALONG
WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN. THUS RAIN CHANCES
AREAWIDE WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAWN
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
415 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY FOR WPC GUIDANCE AND MODEL TRENDS.
VERY MILD TEMPERATURES CHRISTMAS EVE...INCLUDING INTO THE
NIGHT...BEFORE COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES CHRISTMAS DAY. ALSO QUITE
WET WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES A GOOD 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL...AND SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF 850MB JET AROUND 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS. WHILE WE HAVE AREAL AVERAGE QPF OF ROUGHLY
HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RAINFALL ON A
LOCALIZED SCALE COULD BE HEAVIER. MODELS STILL DISAGREE A BIT ON
HOW LONG IT TAKES PRECIP TYPE TO CHANGE FROM STEADY RAIN TO
SCATTERED SNOW...BUT TREND IS SLIGHTLY LATER...SO CHRISTMAS DAY
MAY INCLUDE BOTH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INITIALLY BEFORE ALL SNOW
SHOWERS BY LATER IN THE DAY. COVERAGE OF THOSE SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL
BE HIGHEST IN NORTHERN TO CENTRAL NEW YORK...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
FEWER SHOWERS IN TWIN TIERS AND ESPECIALLY TOWARDS WYOMING VALLEY
OF NEPA DUE TO POTENTIAL DRY SLOTTING AS MENTIONED BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT OF THE
UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE POTENT UPPR LVL TROUGH
WILL BE LOCATED JUST ALONG AND EAST OF THE ROCKIES... AND IS
EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE FAR