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000
FXUS61 KOKX 010906
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
506 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL STORM AFFECTS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE
HIGH BUILDS IN THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. A
SERIES OF COLD FRONTS THEN MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FIRST OF TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL BE TRACKING NE THROUGH
THE DAY...AND IS FORECAST TO REACH JUST SE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK
NEAR SUNSET. LOW TO MID LEVEL LIFT WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCES AND
COVERAGE OF RAINFALL AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY. THIS LIFT WILL BE
STRONGER OVER THE SE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS IS WHERE
THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTENING AS THE LOW CENTER
APPROACHES...CAUSING WINDS TO INCREASE. EXPECTING A WINDY
DAY...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. LOOKS LIKE DURING THIS
AFTERNOON SUSTAINED WINDS AND/OR GUSTS WILL BE REACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR SOME OF THESE COASTAL ZONES. WILL GO WITH AN ADVISORY
FOR SUFFOLK COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN HALVES OF NEW
LONDON...MIDDLESEX...AND NEW HAVEN COUNTIES STARTING THIS AFTERNOON
AND GOING THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW OTHER ZONES
MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY BE INCLUDED IN THIS ADVISORY...BUT SUFFICIENT
CONFIDENCE IS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ZONES FOR NOW.

THE CLOUDS AND RAINFALL WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES NEARLY 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE/UPPER LOW EMERGING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
DEEPEN THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE CENTER. THIS LOW CENTER WILL FOLLOW
A SIMILAR PATH TO THE FIRST...EVENTUALLY PASSING SE OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

ONCE AGAIN...HIGHER POPS WILL BE OVER ROUGHLY THE SE HALF OF THE
AREA FOR TONIGHT...BUT POPS OVERALL WILL BE LOWER THIS TIME AROUND
AS THE BEST LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE A LITTLE FARTHER
OFFSHORE. MODELS AGREE THAT PCPN ENDS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY FOR JUST
ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA. ONLY NEW LONDON COUNTY AND THE TWIN FORKS
AREA WOULD HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING PCPN FOR THE FIRST
COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. PCPN TYPE SHOULD BE ALL RAIN...BUT
THERMAL PROFILES COULD SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT NORTH
OF THE CITY. BY THIS TIME...ONLY CT COULD STILL SEE THIS MIX...BUT
WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS.

SUNDAY IS OTHERWISE DRY WITH ONLY A PASSING SPRINKLE OR FLURRY
DURING THE MORNING AS THE FLOW ALOFT IS STILL CYCLONIC WITH PERHAPS
JUST ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE. PROBABILITIES AND SIGNIFICANCE OF
THIS IS TOO LOW TO PUT INTO THE GRIDS. HIGH TEMPS AGAIN WILL FALL
WELL SHORT OF NORMALS AS COLD AIR POURS IN ON A STRONG NW FLOW.
WIND CHILL VALUES FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF SUNDAY MORNING WILL
AVERAGE AROUND 30 DEGREES.

AS FOR WINDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS A LITTLE MORE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...SO EXPECT THE
CONTINUATION OF BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...SOME
OF THE OTHER COASTAL ZONES MIGHT NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE WIND
ADVISORY THAT EXTENDS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE START OF THE WEEK WITH SLOW
MODERATION OF TEMPS.

COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES EXPECTED SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY AS NEXT SHORT WAVE DIGS IN. POPS REMAIN LOW FOR THIS EVENT
AS TIMING REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN AND OVERALL PCPN APPEARS LIGHT.
WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...HOWEVER MAY NEED TO
EVENTUALLY INCLUDE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHC POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT WITH A TROUGH POSSIBLY MOVING THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS
IT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND INTENSIFY
AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.

MAINLY WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH CIGS 1 THSD - 2 THSD FT AND PERIODS OF
RAIN ARE FORECAST UNTIL SUNSET. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME VFR AFT
SUNSET.

WINDS...NE 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT UNTIL SUNRISE...N WINDS INCREASING
TO 20-30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT THIS AFTN...BECOMING NNW
TONIGHT AND NW ON SUNDAY. GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 KT POSSIBLE EAST
OF THE NYC TERMINALS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN TO THE RIGHT
OF 310 DEGREES MAGNETIC ON SUNDAY.

KSWF WILL HAVE LIGHTER RAIN AND WINDS...AS THEY WILL BE FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE OFFSHORE LOWS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST.
NORTH WINDS 20-30 KT WITH GUSTS OF 35-40 KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KT WITH 30-40 KT GUSTS.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS DECREASE TO 10-15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR DURING THE DAY...CONDS LOWERING TO MVFR IN -RA AT
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
MONDAY. HIGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME. SEE THE LATEST
MARINE WEATHER WARNING FOR DETAILS.

AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND...A SERIES
OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST. THE FIRST LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A SECOND LOW SUNDAY MORNING. THESE SYSTEMS
WILL PRODUCE STRONG NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THEN
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY.

AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE
AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY MORNING...ALL WATERS ARE FORECAST
TO BE BELOW GALE FORCE GUSTS...HOWEVER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS WILL
LIKELY PREVAIL ACROSS THE OCEAN AND EASTERN WATERS THROUGH A GOOD PORTION
OF THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS TO REACH ALL OF THE WATERS WHEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE FLOW BACKS TO WSW ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUES
AS SUCH ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
EXPECTING TOTAL RAINFALL TO RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH
OVER ORANGE COUNTY TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH OVER SE
CT/E SUFFOLK COUNTY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED DURATION OF PRECIPITATION OF
24 HOURS...NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED FROM THIS
SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE HIGH TIDE THAT JUST OCCURRED EARLY THIS MORNING PRODUCED
LEVELS THAT FELL SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING BENCHMARKS BY A FEW
TENTHS TO A HALF FOOT ACROSS THE LONG ISLAND SOUTH SHORE BACK
BAYS AND NY HARBOR. A SIMILAR SURGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS LONG ISLAND
SOUND FOR THE HIGH TIDE THAT WILL OCCUR LATER THIS MORNING.

THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WILL BE HIGHER WITH THE TIDE CYCLE THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WINDS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH FOR A FEW
HOURS BY THIS TIME. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AT LEAST A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT COULD BE NEEDED FOR A FEW LOCATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE. IF SO...HEADLINES WILL
GO UP WITH THE NEXT FORECAST UPDATE EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR CTZ010>012.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR NYZ078>081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...GC/JC
SHORT TERM...GC/JC
LONG TERM...JC/TONGUE
AVIATION...GC
MARINE...GC/TONGUE/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/TONGUE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






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000
FXUS61 KBTV 010857
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
457 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PRODUCE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...ALONG
WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
RANGE FROM A DUSTING IN THE VALLEYS TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE
MOUNTAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING TODAY INTO SUNDAY. A
SLOW WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...THE 1ST SNOW ACCUMULATION OF THE SEASON
IS LIKELY FOR THE EASTERN DACKS INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF VT LATE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO
SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE.

FCST CHALLENGE CONTS TO BE COASTAL SYSTEM TODAY INTO SUNDAY AND
POTENTIAL IMPACTS ACRS OUR CWA. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SYSTEM WITH 5H/7H
HGHT FIELDS 4 TO 5 STD BLW NORMAL ACRS THE SE CONUS...AND AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACRS THE GULF STREAM...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
IS BLW AVERAGE.  OVERALL...ALL MODELS (GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF) AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING MAIN MID/UPPER
LVL SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION. 00Z TRENDS HAVE
BEEN FOR A SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT IN 5H/7H CIRCULATION
TRACK...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY MORE QPF ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN
SECTIONS. BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW QPF AMOUNTS BTWN 0.15 AND 0.55" ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CPV...WITH SOME FALLING IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT.

AS POTENT 5H VORT DIVES INTO THE SE CONUS...A FULL LATITUDE TROF WL
DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS MORNING....WITH ELONGATED
SFC LOW PRES FROM THE 40/70 BENCHMARK TO 100 MILES EAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS. THIS SFC LOW PRES WL CONSOLIDATE INTO A SINGLE CENTER BY
12Z SUNDAY...NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...AS INTERACTION WITH POTENT
5H VORT OCCURS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THIS TRACK TYPICALLY PLACES
HEAVIEST QPF TO OUR EAST...WITH OUR CWA ON WESTERN FRINGE. RAPID SFC
DEVELOPMENT WL OCCUR AND SYSTEM WL QUICKLY BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED
AS IT TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS TIGHTLY WRAPPED SYSTEM WL
LEAVE A SHARP WEST TO EAST PRECIP GRADIENT...WL HEAVIEST QPF
EXPECTED ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...JUST EAST OF OUR CWA ON
SUNDAY.

MEANWHILE...OUR QPF WL ACTUAL OCCUR THIS AFTN/TONIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH INITIAL 5H VORT/WEAK MID WAA...AND DEPARTING RRQ OF 25H JET
ACRS EASTERN CANADA. IR SATL ALREADY SHOWING COOLING OF THE CLOUD
TOPS ACRS SNE/WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. AS MID/UPPER LVL FLW
BECOMES SOUTHERLY FROM DIGGING TROF ACRS THE SE CONUS...THIS
MOISTURE WL ADVECT INTO OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA THIS AFTN/EVENING.
HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME DEVELOPING NORTHERLY FLW FROM THE SFC
THRU 925MB WL BE ADVECTING LLVL DRY INTO THE REGION...SETTING UP THE
BATTLE BTWN DRY AIR TO THE NORTH AND MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. THINKING
SOME VIRGA WL BE POSSIBLE...AS PRECIP DEVELOPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
TODAY ACRS OUR CWA. THINKING LIGHT RAIN WL START ACRS RUTLAND/WINDSOR
COUNTIES BTWN 15-18Z...SPREAD INTO CENTRAL VT/EASTERN DACKS BTWN
18-21Z...AND INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS AFT 21Z TODAY. INITIALLY
THERMAL PROFILES ARE WARM WITH BL TEMPS NEAR 4C...SUPPORTING RAIN
IN THE VALLEYS...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR 2000 FEET FOR
CENTRAL/NORTHERN MTNS AND ABOVE 2500 FT FOR SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS.
DEVELOPING NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLW WL CONT TO COOL THE COLUMN
FURTHER...WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO 1000 FEET BY 21Z FOR
NORTHERN/CENTRAL MTNS AND 1500 FT FOR MTNS OF RUTLAND/WINDSOR
COUNTIES. BY 00Z THIS EVENING...SOUNDINGS SHOW LEVELS DROPPING
CLOSE TO THE VALLEY FLOOR...EVEN INTO THE CPV/CT RIVER
VALLEY...BUT AS THIS OCCURS BETTER DYNAMICS/MOISTURE IS
WEAKENING...ESPECIALLY BY 06Z. VERY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AMOUNT
OF QPF AND HOW MUCH WL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE WEST TO EAST GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA. ITS BEEN NOTED WE DON`T
HAVE THE STRONG UVVS TO COOL THE COLUMN QUICKLY WITH HEAVIER
PRECIP RATES...SO THE CHANGE ACRS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WL OCCUR
SLOWLY AND PROBABLY RESULT IN MORE OF A MIX OF RAIN AND WET SNOW
FLAKES.

FOR THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MAYBE A DUSTING OF
SNOW POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. FOR THE CPV/EASTERN
DACKS...THINKING A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH ON GRASSY SURFACES AWAY
FROM THE LAKE. MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE ACCUMULATIONS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN AND EASTERN VT...BUT THINKING DUSTING TO 2 INCHES
WITH AMOUNTS ABOVE 2000 FEET IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE BY 12Z
SUNDAY....GIVEN INCREASED FLUFF FACTOR AT NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
COOLING THERMAL PROFILES. CIPS 15 TOP ANALOGS SUPPORTS THIS THINKING
WITH A GENERAL 1 TO 4 INCH SNOWFALL FOR THE MTNS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN
VT.

AS SFC LOW PRES DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY...GRADIENT
INCREASES ACRS OUR CWA...WITH 925MB TO 850MB WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS
ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN SECTIONS. THIS WL RESULT IN GUSTY SFC
WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH TO SOUTH ALIGNED CPV AND PARTS OF
THE CT RIVER VALLEY OF 25 TO 35 MPH LIKELY...LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. EXPECT MID WINTER CONDITIONS FOR THE MTN SUMMITS WITH TEMPS
ONLY IN THE TEENS AND WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...FOR SUNDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS SLOWLY
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH 85H FLW OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS. THIS
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE DIRECTION AND SPEED WL PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT PRECIP ON SUNDAY MORNING...BUT AS FLW BECOMES
FAVORABLE...LLVLS ARE QUICKLY DRYING. ALSO...HAVE NOTED WE LOSE RH
IN THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION BY 15Z SUNDAY. WL USE CLIMO
ADJUST POP TOOL AND TRY TO SHOW SOME ENHANCED PRECIP ACRS THE
NORTHERN GREENS FROM JAY PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD...BEFORE MUCH DRIER
AIR MIXES TO THE SFC ON SUNDAY AFTN. PROGGED 85H TEMPS ARE COLD
WITH VALUES AROUND -8C...SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE U10S TO M20S
MTNS TO M/U 30S WARMER VALLEYS...MAYBE NEAR 40F AT BTV. NAM/ECWMF
AND GFS SHOW DEEP LAYER DRY AIR DEVELOPING ACRS OUR CWA ON NW FLW
ALOFT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WL RESULT IN CLRING
SKIES...BUT 85H WINDS ARE STILL BTWN 30 AND 40 KNOTS WITH TIGHT
GRADIENT RELAXING TWD MORNING. HAVE NOTED MAV/MET AT SLK DOWN TO
9F FOR A LOW AND NEAR 20F AT BTV...BUT THINKING THIS IS TOO COLD
GIVEN WINDS/MIXING...SO WL MENTION LOWS IN THE M/U TEENS MTN
VALLEYS AND MID/UPPER 20S WARMER VALLEYS...GOOD TEMPS FOR MAKING
SNOW...ESPECIALLY WITH THE DROPPING RH VALUES. MONDAY WL BE DRY
WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 30S MTNS AND 40S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 440 AM EDT SATURDAY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD.

RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPS
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...WITH LOWEST READINGS IN THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS. AS RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA
TUESDAY...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
ALLOWING FOR WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE
RESULT WILL BE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP BEING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS...WARMING AT 850 MB (+6 TO +8C) WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WEAKENS FURTHER WHILE PUSHING SLOWLY EAST OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE TIME TO BE DRY
AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.
DESPITE COOLER 850 MB TEMPS WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY DUE DRIER CONDITIONS AND SOME AFTERNOON SUN.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AS
POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY.
UPPER FLOW TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH ECMWF SUGGESTING SYSTEM MAY BECOME CUTOFF.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN RATHER HIGH INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA...WITH DEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW ASSURING A CONTINUATION OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS. IT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S...EXCEPT
30S IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY. EXPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR RAIN/SNOW MIX TO
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z. NO OBSTRUCTION TO VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED UNTIL
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY WHEN VSBYS WILL LOWER TO 3-5SM WITH PSBL IFR AT
MPV IN LIGHT SNOW. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NORTH UNDER 10 KNOTS
TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE FROM THE NORTH INTO THE 10 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE AFTER 12Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
06Z SUN-00Z MON: MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT TRENDING VFR
DURING SUNDAY WITH ANY SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS ENDING. NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GUSTING IN THE 25-35KT RANGE ON SUNDAY.

00Z MON-12Z TUE: VFR

12Z TUE ONWARD: MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND LOWERING CEILINGS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...THE KCXX-88D DOPPLER RADAR IN
COLCHESTER VERMONT IS OUT OF SERVICE AT THIS TIME. ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIANS HAVE FOUND A PROBLEM WITH HIGH VOLTAGE ARCING AND
PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER AND SHOULD ARRIVE TODAY. OWING TO THE
COMPLEX NATURE OF THE PROBLEM...IT APPEARS THE EARLIEST RETURN TO
SERVICE WILL BE SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV



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000
FXUS61 KBUF 010835
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
435 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SET UP A COOL
AND MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY WITH LIGHT RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW IN
SPOTS. COLDER AND EVENTUALLY DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES SHOULD
TAPER OFF. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE NORTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WHICH WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER TO OUR REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 400 AM...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS JUST STARTING TO GET ORGANIZED
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND WHILE AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROF SAT
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS HAS SET UP A NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING. NAM
BUFKIT SHOWS MOST OF THE LIFT IS BEING GENERATED IN THE LOW
LEVELS...MOST LIKELY A COMBINATION OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPING.

THERE IS AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
AND EXTENDING TO ROCHESTER AND ERIE. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A FAIRLY
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...WITH THE HRRR VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY. FOLLOWING THE HRRR AND A BLEND OF MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE...EXPECT LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVES EAST...DRIER (BUT COLDER) AIR WILL BUILD IN THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION LEAVING
IT MOSTLY CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AND UPSLOPE REGIONS.

MEANWHILE...SNOW IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY...WITH COOLER AIR JUST TO THE
WEST BOTH HAMILTON AND TORONTO REPORTED LIGHT SNOW. AS TEMPERATURES
DROP...EXPECT RAIN TO START MIXING WITH SNOW THIS MORNING...FIRST
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN BUT EVEN BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER ARE LIKELY TO
SEE A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIX IN BEFORE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF.
RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES ON THE LAKE SHOULD KEEP THE IMMEDIATE
SOUTH SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO RAIN TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION TODAY...OUTSIDE OF SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OVER 1800FT. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
CLOUDS WILL LARGELY OFFSET DAYTIME HEATING...WITH RELATIVELY STEADY
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS. THE COMBINATION OF NORTHERLY UPSLOPE
AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD CAUSE SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWN TO
AROUND -6C BY 00Z SUN...WHICH SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW
AWAY FROM THE LAKES WHERE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS POSSIBLE.

DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. NAM/GFS
BUFKIT SUGGEST IT SHOULD BE JUST MOIST ENOUGH TO FOR SNOW GROWTH
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...HOWEVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER WILL DRY OUT AND LEAVE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN NORTHERLY UPSLOPE REGIONS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
THIS REGARD...AND IT IS POSSIBLE DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR WILL END
PRECIPITATION AND RESULT IN JUST LAKE INDUCED STRATUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN AMPLIFIED 500 HPA PATTERN WILL START THIS PERIOD...WITH A WESTERN
TROUGH...PLAINS RIDGE AND EAST COAST TROUGH.

SUNDAY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY BE FOUND ACROSS THE UPPER GENESEE
VALLEY REGION...WITH THE LAST OF LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY FOUND WITHIN
THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT
THESE SHOWERS WILL PRIMARILY BE SNOW. SUFFICIENT DRYING IN THE MID
AND LOWER LEVELS SHOULD START AREAS NEAR THE LAKES MOSTLY SUNNY ON
SUNDAY...WHILE INLAND AND HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS THAT ARE CLOSER TO
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIKELY START RATHER CLOUDY BEFORE
CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY.

THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME WARMING ALOFT SUNDAY AS THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL BE JUST TO OUR EAST...AND ALSO INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
SUNSHINE...A COLD START TO THE DAY AND LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP SIMILAR
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WHEN COMPARED TO
SATURDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S...WHICH WILL BE SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY THE PLAINS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ADVANCE TOWARDS THE EAST COASTLINE. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL RIDGE NORTHWARD AND
CROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL
PROVIDE FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT MAY BE NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT THAT MAY BRING A FEW
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. WITH LAKE
PARAMETERS POOR FOR LAKE EFFECT...WILL JUST HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN SUNDAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES OF 4 TO 5C AT 850 HPA WILL YIELD AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES MONDAY REACHING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN IN
ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING MID WEST STORM SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT LIFTING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO MAY BRING
A SHOWER FAR ENOUGH WEST TO REACH FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE. A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE MONDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR MOST AREAS TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. WARMEST AREAS WILL BE ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE AND INLAND ACROSS THE LAKE PLAIN AND TOWARDS
THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT TUESDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A SURFACE AND UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE
UPPER PLAINS AND PRAIRIE PROVINCES TO SOUTHWESTERN HUDSON BAY. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD
NEW YORK STATE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING A SHEARING
OF THE FRONT DURING TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FROM
THE WEAKENING FRONT...AND VORTICITY ADVECTION/HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT TO
WARRANT LIKELY POPS FOR LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. QPF IS
EXPECTED TO BE LOW WITH ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

GFS AND ECMWF SHOW GREATEST DIFFERENCES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. BY 00Z FRIDAY...GFS DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN QUEBEC TO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FOR THE SAME TIMEFRAME...ECMWF HAS DEVELOPED A NEGATIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH FROM JUST EAST OF JAME BAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BOTH
MODEL SOLUTIONS PROVIDE CHANCE POPS WED THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH THE
HIGHER POPS DURING THE DAY THU. GFS BRINGS IN A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHEREAS ECMWF BRINGS THE COLDER AIR IN ACROSS
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. WILL SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE AND HAVE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH THE CHANCE OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

AFTER A WARMING TREND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THE SECOND
HALF WILL EXPERIENCE A DOWNWARD TREND...FROM HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S ON TUESDAY TO THE LOW TO MID 40S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUF/IAG/ROC...EXPECT MAINLY IFR CIGS AND LIGHT RAIN WITH A 30 KT
NORTHERLY FLOW AT 925 AND LAKE AND UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TODAY...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW
BEFORE ENDING. MEANWHILE CIGS SHOULD LIFT ABOVE 1K FT LATE THIS
MORNING...WITH CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT TO THE VFR CATEGORY THIS
EVENING.

JHW...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER AS WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO THE NORTH...WITH
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR CIGS THROUGH THIS MORNING...AND THEN ONLY
A MODEST IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING LATE TONIGHT.

ART...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH CIGS AVERAGING AROUND 3K FT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR/VFR WITH DIMINISHING LEFTOVER RAIN AND WET
SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR WITH SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND
FLURRIES.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE LOWER LAKES REGION THAT
WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY AS THE STRONG
COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL







  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 010831
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
431 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO THE CAROLINA COAST
THIS MORNING...TRIGGERING AN INTENSE STORM OFFSHORE. THIS STORM
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST REACHING NOVA SCOTIA LATE SUNDAY. IT WILL
BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION TODAY...WITH GREATER
AMOUNTS OVER NEW ENGLAND. AS THE STORM INTENSIFIES TONIGHT IT WILL
WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND DRAW COLDER AIR INTO REGION WITH RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY...RETURNING TO NORMALS BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM...SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
HAVE DIMINISHED FOR NOW AND WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA TO START THE DAY...AND
DRY OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP...THE AREA OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH
IT WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND WESTWARD. POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO
LIKELY BY LATE IN THE DAY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE AND
EXTREME EASTERN CATSKILLS...EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
WITH CHANCE POPS FURTHER WEST. THE POP FORECAST WILL REMAIN ABOUT
THE SAME THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THEN BEGIN TO DECREASE LATER IN
THE EVENING. BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN...WITH A SMALL AREA OF CHANCE POPS OVER THE
EXTREME NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA (SOUTHERN VT AND
NORTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY).

THE POPS AND ASSOCIATED QPF FORECASTS (ABOUT ONE TO TWO TENTHS
LIQUID WHERE LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST) HAVE BEEN BASED ON
THE GFS/ECMWF FORECASTS WHICH WERE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
EACH OTHER. THE 00Z NAM SHOWED SIGNIFICANT HIGHER AMOUNTS OF QPF
OVER THE REGION...BUT APPEARED TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLUTION. THE
CANADIAN MODEL GENERALLY SHOWED LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH LIQUID.

AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...MANY AREAS MAY GET
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW OR ALL SNOW BEFORE THE PCPN
TAPERS OFF. HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST A HALF INCH OR LESS IN THE
SNOW GRIDS FOR MOST OF THE REGION...WITH AROUND AN INCH OVER PARTS
OF SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. LOWS TONIGHT 25 TO 35.

SURFACE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THEY TURN
FROM NORTH-NORTHEAST EARLY TODAY...TO NORTH-NORTHWEST TONIGHT. BY
TONIGHT SPEEDS WILL HAVE INCREASED TO 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP
TO AROUND 25 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUN MRNG THE 500HPA CUT OFF IS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST...AS AN INTENSE
SFC LOW IS ABOUT 300 MI SE OF CAPE COD. WINDS WILL BE HOWLING ACROSS
FCA AS A 25HPA SFC WIND GRADIENT IS OVER NY.

THE 00UTC GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH PVS FCST WITH THE
ONLT SIG DIF THE ECMWF`S FASTER TIMING OF TUES CDFNT. THE NAM HAS
BEEN DISREGARDED AS AN OUTLIER. AS THE INTENSE VERTICAL SYSTEM
LIFTS NE SUN CLOUDS AND SCT -SHSN WILL DIMINISH AS SKIES CLR FM W
TO E. STRONG WINDS...AND CAA WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE WINTER
THAN EARLY NOV. ACTUAL TEMPS WILL BE KEPT IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S SUN...AND FALL TO THE TEENS AND 20S SUN NT UNDER CLR SKIES AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS E FM OHIO VLY. WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DIM
AS 12 HPA WIND GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE FCA MUCH OF THE NIGHT
BEFORE RELAXING MONDAY MORNING.

THE REST OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS 500HPA RIDGE
BUILDS FM THE MISS VLY TO THE ATLC SEABOARD TUES. THE SFC HIGH
COVERS MUCH OF THE EAST...BUT IS CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH AND ALONG
THE ATLC COAST BY TUE MRNG. TEMPS WILL STILL BE CHILLY AND BLO
NORMAL MONDAY W/MS CONDS. MON NT WAA OVER THE TOP OF THE 500HPA
RIDGE WILL RESULT IN SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS TEMPS WILL RETURN
TO NR NORMALS AND CLOUDS LIMIT MINS. TUES A WMFNT WILL LIFT NE OF
THE REGION IN THE MRNG AS THE 500HPA RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE. TEMPS
WILL MODERATE MORE INTO THE 50S WITH PC CONDS. TUES NT A TRAILING
CDFNT ASSOC WITH A LOW OVER HUDSONS BAY CANADA WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FCA AS ITS WEAKENING AND SLOWING WITH LITTLE TO NO UPR
DYNAMICS. SCT -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE TUE NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODERATE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN THE MDL SUITE ON THE GENERAL
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AMONG THE ECMWF/GFS/HPC. ALL PUSH
WEAKENING CDFNT THRU FCA BY WED...STALLING IT FM MID ATLC TO OH VLY.
THE SUITE IS MOST IN AGREEMENT WED WITH 19 OT 20 MEMBERS IN GEFS
PLUMES DRY.

AFTER THAT A SERIES OF 500HPA SHRT WVS DIVE INTO THE GRTLKS
CUTTING OFF A 500HPA LOW OR CREATING A VERY SHARP TROF (GFS). AT
THE SFC THIS INTERACTS WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH...AND WHILE THE PARTICULARS OF THE SCENARIOS VARY...THE END
RESULT IS AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES IN THE
GRTLKS AND MVS E. GFS TAKES A ST LAWRENCE VLY TRACK...THE ECMWF
HAS COASTAL REFORMATION IN GULF OF MAINE. THE GEM IS THE OUTLIER
HERE...WITH CDFNT NOT EVEN CROSSING FCA TO THU. MEANWHILE THE GEFS
PLUMES AFT 00UTC THU HAVE QPF FM NR ZERO TO 3 INCHES LIQ. GIVEN
ONLY SOME AGREEMENT IN BIG PICTURE AND SPREAD IN THE PARTICULARS
AND ONLY MODEST CONFIDENCE IN THE DATA...HPC APPEARS AS A
COMPROMISE BTWN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND WILL POPULATE WITH HPC 00UTC
TNGT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LIGHT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
LOW EXTENDING FURTHER WEST THAN EARLIER RUNS. AS A RESULT...THE
FORECAST FOR THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES WILL NOW FEATURE
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT PCPN. DURING SATURDAY EVENING...
RAIN IS FORECAST TO MIX WITH SNOW AT THE KGFL/KPSF/KALB TAF
SITES...BUT WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AT KGFL/KALB BY
THE TIME IT COOLS OFF ENOUGH FOR THE PCPN TO BE ALL SNOW. AT
KPSF...THERE COULD BE A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE SATURDAY
EVENING BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS TO SNOW SHOWERS. THE MOST
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FROM LATE SATURDAY MORNING
ON. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF ANY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...IFR
CONDITIONS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SATURDAY EVENING...
ESPECIALLY IFR VSBYS IN THE SNOW. IFR VSBYS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY
AT KPSF. JUST LIQUID PCPN IS EXPECTED AT KPOU THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY
(THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD).

WINDS BE NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AT 5 TO 10 KTS.
DURING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING THE WIND AT THE TAF SITES
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO NORTH AND THEN TO NORTH-NORTHWEST...WITH
SPEED INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KTS BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH GUSTS
OF 15 TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO THE CAROLINA COAST
THIS MORNING...TRIGGERING AN INTENSE STORM OFFSHORE. THIS STORM
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST REACHING NOVA SCOTIA LATE SUNDAY. IT WILL
BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION TODAY...WITH GREATER
AMOUNTS OVER NEW ENGLAND. AS THE STORM INTENSIFIES TONIGHT IT WILL
WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND DRAW COLDER AIR INTO REGION WITH RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TUESDAY.

OVERALL LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
0.10 TO 0.30 OF AN INCH WITH AS MUCH AS HALF FALLING AS SNOW IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL 0.10 TO 0.30 WITH AS
MUCH AS HALF FALLING AS SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...KL/SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBGM 010830
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
430 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPR LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING THEN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
230 AM EDT UPDATE...
IT IS PRETTY QUITE THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW
YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPR 30S TO LOW
40S AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPS
ARE VERY SLOWLY DECREASING THIS MORNING. EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL JUST
A FEW MORE DEGREES THIS MORNING. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
OVERCAST AND EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN THIS WAY THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THERE ARE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA AND SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE FAR SE PORTIONS OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING. THESE ARE ORTHOGRAPHIC SHOWERS AND ARE
GENERATED THIS MORNING DUE TO LOTS OF LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE
AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE. BELIEVE COVERAGE MAY
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED DUE TO AN
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING.

THE POTENT UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL FINALLY START TO TRACK EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVER THE CWA AND
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL FINALLY START TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. THE
COOLER AIR WILL RESULT IN THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS
LATE THIS EVENING. AS THE UPPR LVL LOW SHIFTS EAST THIS MAY PRODUCE
AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR FINGER LAKE INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS.
FINGER LAKE SHOWERS MAY START AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL STAY CHILLY AS COLD AIR WILL START TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL. DUE TO
STRONG CAA SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING TEMPS LATE EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPR 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
430 AM EDT UPDATE... WHAT FINGER LAKE SNOW SHOWERS THAT ARE LEFT
BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DRY
AIR WILL OVERCOME THE REGION. BY SUNDAY WE WILL FINALLY BE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPR LVL TROUGH AND THE AMPLIFIED SFC LOW WILL BE
EAST OF MASS. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY.
AS THIS SFC LOW MOVES ALONG THE COAST THE MSLP WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS
THE CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD NORTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
PA. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 30
MPH. WITH CAA AND GUSTY WINDS... SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY
CHILLY. HIGHS SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPR 30S AND
LOW 40S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT RESULTING IN WINDS WEAKENING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE... AND RIDGING
ALOFT. TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE UPPR 40S TO LOW 50S ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
WILL PROVIDE MILDER TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT SWINGING OUT OF ONTARIO AND THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

AFTER THE MILD START, TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COMPLEX UPR AND SFC LOW SYSTEM MVG THRU THE AREA THIS MRNG.
CNRNTLY AND THRU THE NGT...THE SYSTEM IS GENERATING A NELY FLOW
AND KEEPING ANY LE PCPN WELL WEST OF THE AREA. WEAK LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPR LOW ITSELF MAY GENERATE SOME LGT OCON AND
PSBL MVFR COGS AND VSBYS FOR A TIME THIS MRNG...INTO ARND MIDDAY
ON SAT. EVENTUALLY...MORE NLY FLOW AND COLDER AIR WILL GENERATE
SOME ONTARIO AND FINGER LAKE SNOW SHWRS LATE IN THE PD WHICH MAY
GENERATE MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT...OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN-WED...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DGM










000
FXUS61 KALY 010824
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
424 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO THE CAROLINA COAST
THIS MORNING...AND TRIGGERING AN INTENSE STORM OFFSHORE. THIS
STORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST REACHING NOVA SCOTIA LATE SUNDAY. IT
WILL BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION TODAY...WITH GREATER
AMOUNTS OVER NEW ENGLAND. AS THE STORM INTENSIFIES TONIGHT IT WILL
WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND DRAW COLDER AIR INTO REGION WITH RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY...RETURNING TO NORMALS BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM...SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
HAVE DIMINISHED FOR NOW AND WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA TO START THE DAY...AND
DRY OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP...THE AREA OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH
IT WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND WESTWARD. POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO
LIKELY BY LATE IN THE DAY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE AND
EXTREME EASTERN CATSKILLS...EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
WITH CHANCE POPS FURTHER WEST. THE POP FORECAST WILL REMAIN ABOUT
THE SAME THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THEN BEGIN TO DECREASE LATER IN
THE EVENING. BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN...WITH A SMALL AREA OF CHANCE POPS OVER THE
EXTREME NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA (SOUTHERN VT AND
NORTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY).

THE POPS AND ASSOCIATED QPF FORECASTS (ABOUT ONE TO TWO TENTHS
LIQUID WHERE LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST) HAVE BEEN BASED ON
THE GFS/ECMWF FORECASTS WHICH WERE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
EACH OTHER. THE 00Z NAM SHOWED SIGNIFICANT HIGHER AMOUNTS OF QPF
OVER THE REGION...BUT APPEARED TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLUTION. THE
CANADIAN MODEL GENERALLY SHOWED LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH LIQUID.

AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...MANY AREAS MAY GET
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW OR ALL SNOW BEFORE THE PCPN
TAPERS OFF. HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST A HALF INCH OR LESS IN THE
SNOW GRIDS FOR MOST OF THE REGION...WITH AROUND AN INCH OVER PARTS
OF SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. LOWS TONIGHT 25 TO 35.

SURFACE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THEY TURN
FROM NORTH-NORTHEAST EARLY TODAY...TO NORTH-NORTHWEST TONIGHT. BY
TONIGHT SPEEDS WILL HAVE INCREASED TO 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP
TO AROUND 25 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUN MRNG THE 500HPA CUT OFF IS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST...AS AN INTENSE
SFC LOW IS ABOUT 300 MI SE OF CAPE COD. WINDS WILL BE HOWLING ACROSS
FCA AS A 25HPA SFC WIND GRADIENT IS OVER NY.

THE 00UTC GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH PVS FCST WITH THE
ONLT SIG DIF THE ECMWF`S FASTER TIMING OF TUES CDFNT. THE NAM HAS
BEEN DISREGARDED AS AN OUTLIER. AS THE INTENSE VERTICAL SYSTEM
LIFTS NE SUN CLOUDS AND SCT -SHSN WILL DIMINISH AS SKIES CLR FM W
TO E. STRONG WINDS...AND CAA WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE WINTER
THAN EARLY NOV. ACTUAL TEMPS WILL BE KEPT IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S SUN...AND FALL TO THE TEENS AND 20S SUN NT UNDER CLR SKIES AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS E FM OHIO VLY. WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DIM
AS 12 HPA WIND GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE FCA MUCH OF THE NIGHT
BEFORE RELAXING MONDAY MORNING.

THE REST OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS 500HPA RIDGE
BUILDS FM THE MISS VLY TO THE ATLC SEABOARD TUES. THE SFC HIGH
COVERS MUCH OF THE EAST...BUT IS CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH AND ALONG
THE ATLC COAST BY TUE MRNG. TEMPS WILL STILL BE CHILLY AND BLO
NORMAL MONDAY W/MS CONDS. MON NT WAA OVER THE TOP OF THE 500HPA
RIDGE WILL RESULT IN SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS TEMPS WILL RETURN
TO NR NORMALS AND CLOUDS LIMIT MINS. TUES A WMFNT WILL LIFT NE OF
THE REGION IN THE MRNG AS THE 500HPA RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE. TEMPS
WILL MODERATE MORE INTO THE 50S WITH PC CONDS. TUES NT A TRAILING
CDFNT ASSOC WITH A LOW OVER HUDSONS BAY CANADA WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FCA AS ITS WEAKENING AND SLOWING WITH LITTLE TO NO UPR
DYNAMICS. SCT -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE TUE NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODERATE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN THE MDL SUITE ON THE GENERAL
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AMONG THE ECMWF/GFS/HPC. ALL PUSH
WEAKENING CDFNT THRU FCA BY WED...STALLING IT FM MID ATLC TO OH VLY.
THE SUITE IS MOST IN AGREEMENT WED WITH 19 OT 20 MEMBERS IN GEFS
PLUMES DRY.

AFTER THAT A SERIES OF 500HPA SHRT WVS DIVE INTO THE GRTLKS
CUTTING OFF A 500HPA LOW OR CREATING A VERY SHARP TROF (GFS). AT
THE SFC THIS INTERACTS WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH...AND WHILE THE PARTICULARS OF THE SCENARIOS VARY...THE END
RESULT IS AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES IN THE
GRTKLS AND MVS E. GFS TAKES A ST LAWRENCE VLY TRACK...THE ECMWF
HAS COASTAL REFORMATION IN GULF OF MAINE. THE GEM IS THE OUTLIER
HERE...WITH CDFNT NOT EVEN CROSSING FCA TO THU. MEANWHILE THE GEFS
PLUMES AFT 00UTC THU HAVE QPF FM NR ZERO TO 3 INCHES LIQ. GIVEN
ONLY SOME AGREEMENT IN BIG PICTURE AND SPREAD IN THE PARTICULARS
AND ONLY MODEST CONFIDENCE IN THE DATA...HPC APPEARS AS A
COMPROMISE BTWN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND WILL POPULATE WITH HPC 00UTC
TNGT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LIGHT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
LOW EXTENDING FURTHER WEST THAN EARLIER RUNS. AS A RESULT...THE
FORECAST FOR THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES WILL NOW FEATURE
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT PCPN. DURING SATURDAY EVENING...
RAIN IS FORECAST TO MIX WITH SNOW AT THE KGFL/KPSF/KALB TAF
SITES...BUT WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AT KGFL/KALB BY
THE TIME IT COOLS OFF ENOUGH FOR THE PCPN TO BE ALL SNOW. AT
KPSF...THERE COULD BE A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE SATURDAY
EVENING BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS TO SNOW SHOWERS. THE MOST
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FROM LATE SATURDAY MORNING
ON. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF ANY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...IFR
CONDITIONS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SATURDAY EVENING...
ESPECIALLY IFR VSBYS IN THE SNOW. IFR VSBYS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY
AT KPSF. JUST LIQUID PCPN IS EXPECTED AT KPOU THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY
(THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD).

WINDS BE NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AT 5 TO 10 KTS.
DURING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING THE WIND AT THE TAF SITES
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO NORTH AND THEN TO NORTH-NORTHWEST...WITH
SPEED INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KTS BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH GUSTS
OF 15 TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED
SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31.0 NO
SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT: NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...TURNING
TO SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS
OF THE SEASON OVER US BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL








000
FXUS61 KOKX 010809
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
409 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL STORM AFFECTS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE
HIGH BUILDS IN THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. A
SERIES OF COLD FRONTS THEN MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FIRST OF TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL BE TRACKING NE THROUGH
THE DAY...AND IS FORECAST TO REACH JUST SE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK
NEAR SUNSET. LOW TO MID LEVEL LIFT WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCES AND
COVERAGE OF RAINFALL AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY. THIS LIFT WILL BE
STRONGER OVER THE SE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS IS WHERE
THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTENING AS THE LOW CENTER
APPROACHES...CAUSING WINDS TO INCREASE. EXPECTING A WINDY
DAY...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. LOOKS LIKE DURING THIS
AFTERNOON SUSTAINED WINDS AND/OR GUSTS WILL BE REACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR SOME OF THESE COASTAL ZONES. WILL GO WITH AN ADVISORY
FOR SUFFOLK COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN HALVES OF NEW
LONDON...MIDDLESEX...AND NEW HAVEN COUNTIES STARTING THIS AFTERNOON
AND GOING THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW OTHER ZONES
MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY BE INCLUDED IN THIS ADVISORY...BUT SUFFICIENT
CONFIDENCE IS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ZONES FOR NOW.

THE CLOUDS AND RAINFALL WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES NEARLY 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE/UPPER LOW EMERGING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
DEEPEN THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE CENTER. THIS LOW CENTER WILL FOLLOW
A SIMILAR PATH TO THE FIRST...EVENTUALLY PASSING SE OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

ONCE AGAIN...HIGHER POPS WILL BE OVER ROUGHLY THE SE HALF OF THE
AREA FOR TONIGHT...BUT POPS OVERALL WILL BE LOWER THIS TIME AROUND
AS THE BEST LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE A LITTLE FARTHER
OFFSHORE. MODELS AGREE THAT PCPN ENDS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY FOR JUST
ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA. ONLY NEW LONDON COUNTY AND THE TWIN FORKS
AREA WOULD HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING PCPN FOR THE FIRST
COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. PCPN TYPE SHOULD BE ALL RAIN...BUT
THERMAL PROFILES COULD SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT NORTH
OF THE CITY. BY THIS TIME...ONLY CT COULD STILL SEE THIS MIX...BUT
WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS.

SUNDAY IS OTHERWISE DRY WITH ONLY A PASSING SPRINKLE OR FLURRY
DURING THE MORNING AS THE FLOW ALOFT IS STILL CYCLONIC WITH PERHAPS
JUST ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE. PROBABILITIES AND SIGNIFICANCE OF
THIS IS TOO LOW TO PUT INTO THE GRIDS. HIGH TEMPS AGAIN WILL FALL
WELL SHORT OF NORMALS AS COLD AIR POURS IN ON A STRONG NW FLOW.
WIND CHILL VALUES FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF SUNDAY MORNING WILL
AVERAGE AROUND 30 DEGREES.

AS FOR WINDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS A LITTLE MORE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...SO EXPECT THE
CONTINUATION OF BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...SOME
OF THE OTHER COASTAL ZONES MIGHT NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE WIND
ADVISORY THAT EXTENDS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE START OF THE WEEK WITH SLOW
MODERATION OF TEMPS.

COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES EXPECTED SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY AS NEXT SHORT WAVE DIGS IN. POPS REMAIN LOW FOR THIS EVENT
AS TIMING REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN AND OVERALL PCPN APPEARS LIGHT.
WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...HOWEVER MAY NEED TO
EVENTUALLY INCLUDE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHC POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT WITH A TROUGH POSSIBLY MOVING THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. ANOTHER LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OFF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND INTENSIFY
AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.

MAINLY WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH CIGS 1 THSD - 2 THSD FT AND PERIODS OF
RAIN ARE FORECAST UNTIL SUNSET. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME VFR AFT
SUNSET.

WINDS...NE 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT UNTIL SUNRISE...N NEAR 20
KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...BECOMING NNW
SATURDAY NIGHT AND NW...TO THE RIGHT OF 310 DEGREES MAGNETIC ON
SUNDAY AT 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 KT...ISOLATED GUSTS TO 40
KT POSSIBLE.

KSWF WILL HAVE LIGHTER RAIN AND WINDS...AS THEY WILL BE FARTHER AWAY
FROM THE OFFSHORE LOWS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST.
NORTH WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KT WITH 30-40 KT GUSTS.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT.
.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR DURING THE DAY...CONDS LOWERING TO MVFR IN -RA AT
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
GALES ON ALL WATERS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ALL
OF THE AREA WATERS AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CREATES STRONG
WINDS.

WINDS START TO DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING...ALL WATERS
SHOULD BE BELOW GALE FORCE GUSTS...HOWEVER SCA CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PREVAIL ACROSS THE OCEAN AND EASTERN WATERS THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE MONDAY
NIGHT FOR SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO REACH ALL OF THE WATERS WHEN A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE FLOW BACKS
TO WSW ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUES AS SUCH ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
EXPECTING TOTAL RAINFALL TO RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH
OVER ORANGE COUNTY TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH OVER SE
CT/E SUFFOLK COUNTY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED DURATION OF PRECIPITATION OF
24 HOURS...NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED FROM THIS
SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE HIGH TIDE THAT JUST OCCURRED EARLY THIS MORNING PRODUCED
LEVELS THAT FELL SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING BENCHMARKS BY A FEW
TENTHS TO A HALF FOOT ACROSS THE LONG ISLAND SOUTH SHORE BACK
BAYS AND NY HARBOR. A SIMILAR SURGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS LONG ISLAND
SOUND FOR THE HIGH TIDE THAT WILL OCCUR LATER THIS MORNING.

THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WILL BE HIGHER WITH THE TIDE CYCLE THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WINDS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH FOR A FEW
HOURS BY THIS TIME. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AT LEAST A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT COULD BE NEEDED FOR A FEW LOCATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE. IF SO...HEADLINES WILL
GO UP WITH THE NEXT FORECAST UPDATE EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR CTZ010>012.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR NYZ078>081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...GC/JC
SHORT TERM...GC/JC
LONG TERM...JC/TONGUE
AVIATION...GC
MARINE...GC/TONGUE/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/TONGUE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JC







000
FXUS61 KBTV 010805
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
405 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PRODUCE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...ALONG
WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
RANGE FROM A DUSTING IN THE VALLEYS TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE
MOUNTAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING TODAY INTO SUNDAY. A
SLOW WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...THE 1ST SNOW ACCUMULATION OF THE SEASON
IS LIKELY FOR THE EASTERN DACKS INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF VT LATE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO
SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE.

FCST CHALLENGE CONTS TO BE COASTAL SYSTEM TODAY INTO SUNDAY AND
POTENTIAL IMPACTS ACRS OUR CWA. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SYSTEM WITH 5H/7H
HGHT FIELDS 4 TO 5 STD BLW NORMAL ACRS THE SE CONUS...AND AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACRS THE GULF STREAM...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
IS BLW AVERAGE.  OVERALL...ALL MODELS (GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF) AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING MAIN MID/UPPER
LVL SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION. 00Z TRENDS HAVE
BEEN FOR A SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT IN 5H/7H CIRCULATION
TRACK...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY MORE QPF ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN
SECTIONS. BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW QPF AMOUNTS BTWN 0.15 AND 0.55" ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CPV...WITH SOME FALLING IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT.

AS POTENT 5H VORT DIVES INTO THE SE CONUS...A FULL LATITUDE TROF WL
DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS MORNING....WITH ELONGATED
SFC LOW PRES FROM THE 40/70 BENCHMARK TO 100 MILES EAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS. THIS SFC LOW PRES WL CONSOLIDATE INTO A SINGLE CENTER BY
12Z SUNDAY...NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...AS INTERACTION WITH POTENT
5H VORT OCCURS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THIS TRACK TYPICALLY PLACES
HEAVIEST QPF TO OUR EAST...WITH OUR CWA ON WESTERN FRINGE. RAPID SFC
DEVELOPMENT WL OCCUR AND SYSTEM WL QUICKLY BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED
AS IT TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS TIGHTLY WRAPPED SYSTEM WL
LEAVE A SHARP WEST TO EAST PRECIP GRADIENT...WL HEAVIEST QPF
EXPECTED ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...JUST EAST OF OUR CWA ON
SUNDAY.

MEANWHILE...OUR QPF WL ACTUAL OCCUR THIS AFTN/TONIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH INITIAL 5H VORT/WEAK MID WAA...AND DEPARTING RRQ OF 25H JET
ACRS EASTERN CANADA. IR SATL ALREADY SHOWING COOLING OF THE CLOUD
TOPS ACRS SNE/WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. AS MID/UPPER LVL FLW
BECOMES SOUTHERLY FROM DIGGING TROF ACRS THE SE CONUS...THIS
MOISTURE WL ADVECT INTO OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA THIS AFTN/EVENING.
HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME DEVELOPING NORTHERLY FLW FROM THE SFC
THRU 925MB WL BE ADVECTING LLVL DRY INTO THE REGION...SETTING UP THE
BATTLE BTWN DRY AIR TO THE NORTH AND MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. THINKING
SOME VIRGA WL BE POSSIBLE...AS PRECIP DEVELOPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
TODAY ACRS OUR CWA. THINKING LIGHT RAIN WL START ACRS RUTLAND/WINDSOR
COUNTIES BTWN 15-18Z...SPREAD INTO CENTRAL VT/EASTERN DACKS BTWN
18-21Z...AND INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS AFT 21Z TODAY. INITIALLY
THERMAL PROFILES ARE WARM WITH BL TEMPS NEAR 4C...SUPPORTING RAIN
IN THE VALLEYS...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR 2000 FEET FOR
CENTRAL/NORTHERN MTNS AND ABOVE 2500 FT FOR SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS.
DEVELOPING NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLW WL CONT TO COOL THE COLUMN
FURTHER...WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO 1000 FEET BY 21Z FOR
NORTHERN/CENTRAL MTNS AND 1500 FT FOR MTNS OF RUTLAND/WINDSOR
COUNTIES. BY 00Z THIS EVENING...SOUNDINGS SHOW LEVELS DROPPING
CLOSE TO THE VALLEY FLOOR...EVEN INTO THE CPV/CT RIVER
VALLEY...BUT AS THIS OCCURS BETTER DYNAMICS/MOISTURE IS
WEAKENING...ESPECIALLY BY 06Z. VERY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AMOUNT
OF QPF AND HOW MUCH WL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE WEST TO EAST GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA. ITS BEEN NOTED WE DON`T
HAVE THE STRONG UVVS TO COOL THE COLUMN QUICKLY WITH HEAVIER
PRECIP RATES...SO THE CHANGE ACRS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WL OCCUR
SLOWLY AND PROBABLY RESULT IN MORE OF A MIX OF RAIN AND WET SNOW
FLAKES.

FOR THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MAYBE A DUSTING OF
SNOW POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. FOR THE CPV/EASTERN
DACKS...THINKING A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH ON GRASSY SURFACES AWAY
FROM THE LAKE. MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE ACCUMULATIONS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN AND EASTERN VT...BUT THINKING DUSTING TO 2 INCHES
WITH AMOUNTS ABOVE 2000 FEET IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE BY 12Z
SUNDAY....GIVEN INCREASED FLUFF FACTOR AT NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
COOLING THERMAL PROFILES. CIPS 15 TOP ANALOGS SUPPORTS THIS THINKING
WITH A GENERAL 1 TO 4 INCH SNOWFALL FOR THE MTNS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN
VT.

AS SFC LOW PRES DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY...GRADIENT
INCREASES ACRS OUR CWA...WITH 925MB TO 850MB WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS
ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN SECTIONS. THIS WL RESULT IN GUSTY SFC
WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH TO SOUTH ALIGNED CPV AND PARTS OF
THE CT RIVER VALLEY OF 25 TO 35 MPH LIKELY...LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. EXPECT MID WINTER CONDITIONS FOR THE MTN SUMMITS WITH TEMPS
ONLY IN THE TEENS AND WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...FOR SUNDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS SLOWLY
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH 85H FLW OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS. THIS
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE DIRECTION AND SPEED WL PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT PRECIP ON SUNDAY MORNING...BUT AS FLW BECOMES
FAVORABLE...LLVLS ARE QUICKLY DRYING. ALSO...HAVE NOTED WE LOSE RH
IN THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION BY 15Z SUNDAY. WL USE CLIMO
ADJUST POP TOOL AND TRY TO SHOW SOME ENHANCED PRECIP ACRS THE
NORTHERN GREENS FROM JAY PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD...BEFORE MUCH DRIER
AIR MIXES TO THE SFC ON SUNDAY AFTN. PROGGED 85H TEMPS ARE COLD
WITH VALUES AROUND -8C...SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE U10S TO M20S
MTNS TO M/U 30S WARMER VALLEYS...MAYBE NEAR 40F AT BTV. NAM/ECWMF
AND GFS SHOW DEEP LAYER DRY AIR DEVELOPING ACRS OUR CWA ON NW FLW
ALOFT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WL RESULT IN CLRING
SKIES...BUT 85H WINDS ARE STILL BTWN 30 AND 40 KNOTS WITH TIGHT
GRADIENT RELAXING TWD MORNING. HAVE NOTED MAV/MET AT SLK DOWN TO
9F FOR A LOW AND NEAR 20F AT BTV...BUT THINKING THIS IS TOO COLD
GIVEN WINDS/MIXING...SO WL MENTION LOWS IN THE M/U TEENS MTN
VALLEYS AND MID/UPPER 20S WARMER VALLEYS...GOOD TEMPS FOR MAKING
SNOW...ESPECIALLY WITH THE DROPPING RH VALUES. MONDAY WL BE DRY
WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 30S MTNS AND 40S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT FRIDAY...12Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO BE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH 00Z RUNS AND AMONG THE GFS/EURO MEMBERS --
AT LEAST THRU WEDNESDAY. DEVIATIONS GET LARGER FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVERALL THE FORECAST HASN`T CHANGED MUCH. LOOKS PRETTY
QUIET MONDAY & TUESDAY AND THEN GETTING UNSETTLED FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. DAILY SPECIFICS BELOW...

MONDAY:
THE WEEKEND STORM WILL BE FAR TO THE EAST, WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOWLY RELAXING AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST, BUT STILL ENOUGH TO MAKE
FOR A SEMI-BREEZY DAY -- PERHAPS SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20MPH.
GUIDANCE ALL SIMILAR, SO A BLEND LOOKS THE BEST WAY TO GO. SHOULD
BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS AND EVEN LESS IN THE WAY OF ANY
THREAT OF RAIN/SNOW (SO 0% POP IS GOOD). 925MB TEMPERATURES START
OFF CHILLY (-5C OR SO) BUT SLOWLY WARM TOWARD -1C BY THE
AFTERNOON. WHAT THAT MEANS AT THE SURFACE ARE TEMPERATURES ONLY IN
THE LOW 40S (UPPER 30S HIGHER ELEVATIONS).

MONDAY NIGHT:
FLOW STARTS TO TURN SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER AND
EAST OF HERE. AS WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST, WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME
MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION START TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE TRICKY
PART. THINK COLDEST READINGS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM
WITH LOW/MID 20S EXPECTED WITH MORE TIME WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER, IF THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE CLOUDS IS A FEW HOURS
DIFFERENT, IT COULD MEAN LOWS COULD BE COLDER OR WARMER. BOTTOM
LINE, WENT A BIT ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE, BUT THINGS ARE
UNCERTAIN.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT:
WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. 925MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 8C BY
LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
UNDER PERFECT CONDITIONS, BUT CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME RAIN SHOWERS
WILL KEEP THAT FROM HAPPENING. 50S (THOUGH A BIT ABOVE NORMAL)
WILL DO IT. DURING THE DAY A FRONT SLOWLY SAGS TOWARD THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST, HOWEVER THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MEANS THAT
ULTIMATELY THE FRONT WILL PULL UP STATIONARY AND START TO
DISSIPATE IN PLACE. SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. SO LOW CHANCES IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE
DAY, BUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH SO
CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF
BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS BEING ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTION WITH
POPS AROUND 60% THERE BUT TRENDING DOWN TO <30% IN SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS OF VERMONT. GOOD SUPPORT FOR THE MODELS FOR THIS SORT OF
ORIENTATION OF RAIN CHANCES THANKS TO A STALLED FRONT JUST
NORTH/WEST OF HERE. CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING MUCH. LOTS OF 40S AND A FEW UPPER 30S.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY:
LOOKS LIKE A SOMEWHAT DREARY COUPLE OF DAYS. SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH
EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVES IS IN PLACE. WITH THE STALLED FRONT,
WE`LL SEE SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN BREAK OUT AS THE WEAK
DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WON`T VARY MUCH. STUCK
WITH A MODEL BLEND, BUT EVEN THAT MAY BE TOO WARM DURING THE DAY
AND TOO COOL AT NIGHT. BASICALLY LOW 50S IN THE DAY, 40S AT NIGHT.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY:
MODELS DIVERGE MORE BY THIS POINT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SAY WE
WILL HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFY SOME AND CAUSE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS. DIFFERENCES ARE WITH WHERE THIS ALL HAPPENS. GFS IS
FARTHER WEST WITH TROUGH AND CYCLOGENESIS AND SLOWER WITH THE
PATTERN EVOLUTION. IT WOULD KEEP US IN A WARMER ENVIRONMENT WITH
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT TRANSITIONING TO SNOW
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH PASSES BY AND COLDER AIR
COMES IN. 12Z ECMWF HAS ALL OF THIS HAPPENING QUICKLY THURSDAY
NIGHT SUCH THAT COLDER AIR IS MOVING IN BY FRIDAY MORNING
RESULTING IN A MORE CHANCE OF WHITE STUFF, EVEN AT LOW ELEVATIONS.
AS A COMPARISON, GFS HAS 850MB TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 0C AS OF 12Z
FRIDAY -- MEANWHILE THE ECMWF IS ALREADY DOWN TO -8 TO -10C AT
THAT SAME TIME.

THIS FAR OUT, JUST STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND WHICH RESULTS IN SOME
LIGHT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE ROUGHLY 2000FT AND RAIN SHOWERS
BELOW THAT AS HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE ONLY IN THE 40S.

I`M SURE THIS FORECAST WILL CHANGE SEVERAL MORE TIMES BETWEEN NOW
AND THEN. THAT`S JUST THE WAY THINGS WORK....

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY. EXPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR RAIN/SNOW MIX TO
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z. NO OBSTRUCTION TO VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED UNTIL
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY WHEN VSBYS WILL LOWER TO 3-5SM WITH PSBL IFR AT
MPV IN LIGHT SNOW. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NORTH UNDER 10 KNOTS
TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE FROM THE NORTH INTO THE 10 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE AFTER 12Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
06Z SUN-00Z MON: MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT TRENDING VFR
DURING SUNDAY WITH ANY SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS ENDING. NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GUSTING IN THE 25-35KT RANGE ON SUNDAY.

00Z MON-12Z TUE: VFR

12Z TUE ONWARD: MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND LOWERING CEILINGS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...THE KCXX-88D DOPPLER RADAR IN
COLCHESTER VERMONT IS OUT OF SERVICE AT THIS TIME. ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIANS HAVE FOUND A PROBLEM WITH HIGH VOLTAGE ARCING AND
PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER AND SHOULD ARRIVE TODAY. OWING TO THE
COMPLEX NATURE OF THE PROBLEM...IT APPEARS THE EARLIEST RETURN TO
SERVICE WILL BE SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...RJS
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KALY 010732
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
332 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO THE CAROLINA COAST
THIS MORNING...AND TRIGGERING AN INTENSE STORM OFFSHORE. THIS
STORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST REACHING NOVA SCOTIA LATE SUNDAY. IT
WILL BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION TODAY...WITH GREATER
AMOUNTS OVER NEW ENGLAND. AS THE STORM INTENSIFIES TONIGHT IT WILL
WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND DRAW COLDER AIR INTO REGION WITH RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY...RETURNING TO NORMALS BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE REACHED AS FAR NORTH AS THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND BERKSHIRE COUNTY. HAVE RAISED POPS OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT AND REDUCED POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WERE RADAR LOOPS SHOW LITTLE ACTIVITY. HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT TEMPS UPWARD BY 2 TO 3 DEGREES IN ORDER TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. CURRENT LOW TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

TODAY...TNGT...DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE INSISTING ON MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM
REMAINING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...STILL ADMITTEDLY NOT
OVERLY CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST SOME BANDS OF PRECIP APPROACH AND
POSSIBLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF AT LEAST SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA
LATE SAT AFTN INTO SUN AM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS 4 DISTINCT
SHORTWAVES...WITH THE MAIN FEATURE CURRENTLY TRANSLATING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING IMPULSE RACING
SE INTO NW ONTARIO. IT IS THIS LAST FEATURE...IN NW ONTARIO...THAT
HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO PULL THINGS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST THAN
CURRENT MODELS INDICATE. AT THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT SOME RAIN
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING SATURDAY...ESP IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THEN...AS THE LOW
RAPIDLY DEVELOPS OFFSHORE WITH SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...CURRENT
PROJECTIONS INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE STEADIER PRECIP REMAINS
CONFINED CLOSER TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS
A LOW PROBABILITY THAT A BAND OF STEADIER PRECIP ADVANCES
NORTHWEST OR WEST AROUND THE THE DEVELOPING LOW...ESP LATE SAT NT
OR EARLY SUNDAY. SO...WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
WELL INTO SAT NT...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE.
HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO VERY CLOSELY MONITOR RADAR TRENDS...AND
ALSO NEAR TERM FORECAST GUIDANCE FROM THE RAP/HRRR...WHICH MAY
GIVE SOME NEAR- TO SHORT- TERM HINTS THAT PRECIP MAY BE TRENDING
FARTHER N AND W. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN IN VALLEYS
THROUGH SAT...WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...ESP ELEVATIONS GREATER THAN 1500 FT. THEN...DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH DYNAMICAL COOLING CAN OCCUR...RAIN AND OR RAIN SHOWERS
SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS ALL ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT SAT
EVENING...AND PERHAPS EVEN IN VALLEY AREAS LATER SAT NT. CURRENT
GRIDDED DATABASE INCLUDES SOME MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF UP TO AN
INCH ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND
ALSO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...BY SUNRISE SUNDAY.
ALSO...UP TO ONE HALF INCH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AGAIN...THERE REMAINS A SMALL PROBABILITY
THAT GREATER AMTS COULD OCCUR...AT LEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LITCHFIELD CO IF
THE PRECIP TRENDS FARTHER WEST.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN VALLEYS FOR
SAT...THEN FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR SAT NT IN VALLEYS...WITH
POSSIBLY SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SAT AFTN INTO SAT NT...AND MAY GUST TO 25-30 MPH...ESP IN
SOME N/S ORIENTED VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUN MRNG THE 500HPA CUT OFF IS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST...AS AN INTENSE
SFC LOW IS ABOUT 300 MI SE OF CAPE COD. WINDS WILL BE HOWLING ACROSS
FCA AS A 25HPA SFC WIND GRADIENT IS OVER NY.

THE 00UTC GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH PVS FCST WITH THE
ONLT SIG DIF THE ECMWF`S FASTER TIMING OF TUES CDFNT. THE NAM HAS
BEEN DISREGARDED AS AN OUTLIER. AS THE INTENSE VERTICAL SYSTEM
LIFTS NE SUN CLOUDS AND SCT -SHSN WILL DIMINISH AS SKIES CLR FM W
TO E. STRONG WINDS...AND CAA WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE WINTER
THAN EARLY NOV. ACTUAL TEMPS WILL BE KEPT IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S SUN...AND FALL TO THE TEENS AND 20S SUN NT UNDER CLR SKIES AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS E FM OHIO VLY. WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DIM
AS 12 HPA WIND GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE FCA MUCH OF THE NIGHT
BEFORE RELAXING MONDAY MORNING.

THE REST OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS 500HPA RIDGE
BUILDS FM THE MISS VLY TO THE ATLC SEABOARD TUES. THE SFC HIGH
COVERS MUCH OF THE EAST...BUT IS CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH AND ALONG
THE ATLC COAST BY TUE MRNG. TEMPS WILL STILL BE CHILLY AND BLO
NORMAL MONDAY W/MS CONDS. MON NT WAA OVER THE TOP OF THE 500HPA
RIDGE WILL RESULT IN SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS TEMPS WILL RETURN
TO NR NORMALS AND CLOUDS LIMIT MINS. TUES A WMFNT WILL LIFT NE OF
THE REGION IN THE MRNG AS THE 500HPA RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE. TEMPS
WILL MODERATE MORE INTO THE 50S WITH PC CONDS. TUES NT A TRAILING
CDFNT ASSOC WITH A LOW OVER HUDSONS BAY CANADA WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FCA AS ITS WEAKENING AND SLOWING WITH LITTLE TO NO UPR
DYNAMICS. SCT -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE TUE NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODERATE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN THE MDL SUITE ON THE GENERAL
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AMONG THE ECMWF/GFS/HPC. ALL PUSH
WEAKENING CDFNT THRU FCA BY WED...STALLING IT FM MID ATLC TO OH VLY.
THE SUITE IS MOST IN AGREEMENT WED WITH 19 OT 20 MEMBERS IN GEFS
PLUMES DRY.

AFTER THAT A SERIES OF 500HPA SHRT WVS DIVE INTO THE GRTLKS
CUTTING OFF A 500HPA LOW OR CREATING A VERY SHARP TROF (GFS). AT
THE SFC THIS INTERACTS WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH...AND WHILE THE PARTICULARS OF THE SCENARIOS VARY...THE END
RESULT IS AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES IN THE
GRTKLS AND MVS E. GFS TAKES A ST LAWRENCE VLY TRACK...THE ECMWF
HAS COASTAL REFORMATION IN GULF OF MAINE. THE GEM IS THE OUTLIER
HERE...WITH CDFNT NOT EVEN CROSSING FCA TO THU. MEANWHILE THE GEFS
PLUMES AFT 00UTC THU HAVE QPF FM NR ZERO TO 3 INCHES LIQ. GIVEN
ONLY SOME AGREEMENT IN BIG PICTURE AND SPREAD IN THE PARTICULARS
AND ONLY MODEST CONFIDENCE IN THE DATA...HPC APPEARS AS A
COMPROMISE BTWN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND WILL POPULATE WITH HPC 00UTC
TNGT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LIGHT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
LOW EXTENDING FURTHER WEST THAN EARLIER RUNS. AS A RESULT...THE
FORECAST FOR THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES WILL NOW FEATURE
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT PCPN. DURING SATURDAY EVENING...
RAIN IS FORECAST TO MIX WITH SNOW AT THE KGFL/KPSF/KALB TAF
SITES...BUT WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AT KGFL/KALB BY
THE TIME IT COOLS OFF ENOUGH FOR THE PCPN TO BE ALL SNOW. AT
KPSF...THERE COULD BE A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE SATURDAY
EVENING BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS TO SNOW SHOWERS. THE MOST
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FROM LATE SATURDAY MORNING
ON. DEPENDING ON THE TIMMING OF ANY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...IFR
CONDITIONS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SATURDAY EVENING...
ESPECIALLY IFR VSBYS IN THE SNOW. IFR VSBYS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY
AT KPSF. JUST LIQUID PCPN IS EXPECTED AT KPOU THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY
(THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD).

WINDS BE NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AT 5 TO 10 KTS.
DURING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING THE WIND AT THE TAF SITES
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO NORTH AND THEN TO NORTH-NORTHWEST...WITH
SPEED INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KTS BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH GUSTS
OF 15 TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED
SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31.0 NO
SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT: NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...TURNING
TO SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS
OF THE SEASON OVER US BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SND/KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL








000
FXUS61 KBGM 010630
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
230 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR VICINITY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS. AS COLDER AIR
DESCENDS UPON THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES FOR SOME PARTS OF THE AREA WHILE DIMINISHING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
230 AM EDT UPDATE...
IT IS PRETTY QUITE THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW
YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPR 30S TO LOW
40S AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPS
ARE VERY SLOWLY DECREASING THIS MORNING. EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL JUST
A FEW MORE DEGREES THIS MORNING. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
OVERCAST AND EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN THIS WAY THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THERE ARE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA AND SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE FAR SE PORTIONS OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING. THESE ARE ORTHOGRAPHIC SHOWERS AND ARE
GENERATED THIS MORNING DUE TO LOTS OF LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE
AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE. BELIEVE COVERAGE MAY
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED DUE TO AN
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING.

THE POTENT UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL FINALLY START TO TRACK EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVER THE CWA AND
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL FINALLY START TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. THE
COOLER AIR WILL RESULT IN THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS
LATE THIS EVENING. AS THE UPPR LVL LOW SHIFTS EAST THIS MAY PRODUCE
AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR FINGER LAKE INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS.
FINGER LAKE SHOWERS MAY START AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL STAY CHILLY AS COLD AIR WILL START TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL. DUE TO
STRONG CAA SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING TEMPS LATE EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPR 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
350 PM UPDATE...
DUE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL VERY GRADUALLY BACK NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHILE BEING PRETTY BRISK DUE TO THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEEP NOVA SCOTIA-BOUND LOW...AND THE
OHIO VALLEY HIGH. THIS WILL MEAN A VERY LIMITED FETCH FOR GREAT
LAKES MOISTURE...DESPITE COLD ENOUGH 850MB TEMPERATURES FOR A LAKE
RESPONSE /WELL BELOW ZERO CELSIUS/. THAT ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR
MASS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...DEWPOINTS CRASHING THROUGH THE
20S SUNDAY...WILL MEAN ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
AT BEST. BEFORE THAT...STILL SOME SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WHICH WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WHILE DIMINISHING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WHERE THEY OCCUR WILL BE MEAGER AND MAINLY LIMITED TO HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION AS WELL AS THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS.

CYCLONIC PRESSURE GRADIENT SUNDAY WILL PUSH GUSTS INTO 25-35 MPH
RANGE...WHICH ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S WILL FEEL QUITE COLD. DRYNESS OF AIR MASS WILL ALSO ALLOW
CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY FOR A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. LOWS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES MONDAY /UPPER 40S-LOW 50S/ DUE TO
WARM AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
WILL PROVIDE MILDER TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT SWINGING OUT OF ONTARIO AND THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

AFTER THE MILD START, TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COMPLEX UPR AND SFC LOW SYSTEM MVG THRU THE AREA THIS MRNG.
CNRNTLY AND THRU THE NGT...THE SYSTEM IS GENERATING A NELY FLOW
AND KEEPING ANY LE PCPN WELL WEST OF THE AREA. WEAK LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPR LOW ITSELF MAY GENERATE SOME LGT OCON AND
PSBL MVFR COGS AND VSBYS FOR A TIME THIS MRNG...INTO ARND MIDDAY
ON SAT. EVENTUALLY...MORE NLY FLOW AND COLDER AIR WILL GENERATE
SOME ONTARIO AND FINGER LAKE SNOW SHWRS LATE IN THE PD WHICH MAY
GENERATE MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT...OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN-WED...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DGM








000
FXUS61 KBUF 010602
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
202 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DECAYING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL REDEVELOP OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...THEN WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT OCCASIONAL
LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CHILLY TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AS
THE LOW BRIEFLY PULLS MUCH COLDER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH A
WARMING TREND THEN FOLLOWING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 0530Z...REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF THE
ORIGINAL PRIMARY LOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...WITH A SECONDARY
SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST IN RESPONSE TO
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
MEANWHILE...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW LIGHT RAIN MAINLY WEST OF
ROCHESTER...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN NORTH OF I-90 AND JUST VERY
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE SOUTHWARD. CONSISTENT WITH OTHER MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE...THE HRRR SHIFTS WINDS FROM THE NE TO N WHICH WILL PUSH
STEADIER SHOWERS SOUTHWARD ACROSS JHW-BUF-IAG...AND EVENTUALLY ROC
TOWARD DAYBREAK.

FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT THE REMAINS OF THE ORIGINAL PRIMARY LOW TO
CONTINUE TO DECAY AS ITS ENERGY TRANSFERS TO THE SECONDARY COASTAL
SYSTEM. THIS STATED...WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT
RAIN SHOULD STILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND A LINGERING CYCLONIC/INCREASINGLY UPSLOPE FLOW
REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION. FURTHER TO THE EAST...
EXPECT JUST A CHANCE OF SOME SPOTTIER LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...DEVELOPING COLD AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM WILL SEND A PROGRESSIVELY
COLDER AIRMASS SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN READINGS FALLING TO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S
TONIGHT...WITH ONLY VERY LIMITED RECOVERY THEN EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
WHEN ALSO TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY SATURDAY EVENING THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH OF -7C TO -8C WILL BE
CROSSING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BASIN AND NEW YORK STATE. WHILE
THIS IS SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO PRODUCE A LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE...THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS ARE DRYING SO LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LIMITED. A NORTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WIND WILL PROVIDE OROGRAPHIC
LIFT DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...SO WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY
POPS EARLY IN THE EVENING...DWINDLING TO CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE POPS
LATER IN THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS DRYING AND WARMING ALOFT LOWER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE EFFECT. LOW TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ALONG AND WEST OF THE GENESEE
VALLEY...THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES TO
THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE AND THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...BRINGING FAIR
WEATHER AND GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES. CLOUDS SHOULD LAST MUCH OF THE
DAY ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS WITH COOL AIR ALOFT RESULTING IN LAKE
ENHANCED STRATUS. SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR THE LAKES AND IN WESTERN SECTIONS. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL CHILLY...ONLY BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
ALONG THE GENESEE VALLEY...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE LAKE ERIE
SHORE AND THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES REGION.

THE AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ON THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY...MOVING EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING
WARMING TO THE AREA WITH HIGH TEMPS 40S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THE
LOW 50S ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD STAY
ABOVE FREEZING WITH MOST LOCATIONS FALLING TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
30S INLAND AND THE LOWER TO MID 40S ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH A SURFACE AND UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE UPPER PLAINS
AND PRAIRIE PROVINCES TO SOUTHWESTERN HUDSON BAY...AN OCCLUSION
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW TO A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD
NEW YORK STATE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING A SHEARING
OF THE FRONT DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...AND ALTHOUGH POPS ARE IN THE
LIKELY RANGE...QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW...ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH.

GFS AND ECMWF SHOW GREATEST DIFFERENCES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. BY 00Z FRIDAY...GFS DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN QUEBEC TO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FOR THE SAME TIMEFRAME...ECMWF HAS DEVELOPED A NEGATIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH FROM JUST EAST OF JAME BAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BOTH
MODEL SOLUTIONS PROVIDE CHANCE POPS WED THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH THE
HIGHER POPS DURING THE DAY THU. GFS BRINGS IN A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHEREAS ECMWF BRINGS THE COLDER AIR IN ACROSS
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. WILL SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE AND HAVE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH THE CHANCE OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

AFTER A WARMING TREND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THE SECOND
HALF WILL EXPERIENCE A DOWNWARD TREND...FROM HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S ON WEDNESDAY TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 06Z...THERE WAS PRIMARILY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS ACROSS
WESTERN NY...WITH THE LOWEST CIGS ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AT
BUF/IAG. LOOKING JUST TO WEST IN HAMILTON ONTARIO...THERE WAS IFR
CIGS WITH A 30KT 925MB FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO. AS 925MB WINDS SHIFT
TO THE NORTH...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER WEST OF ROC. HAVE RELATIVELY
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT JHW WILL LOWER TO IFR WITH THIS WIND SHIFT
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. BUF/IAG/ROC SHOULD
LOWER...BUT ITS GOING TO BE A CLOSE CALL IF THEY LOWER TO IFR.
EXPECT THESE CIGS TO LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
LIFTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND EVEN MORE SO SATURDAY EVENING. ART
SHOULD REMAIN VFR OR MVFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE PATCHY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW LATE SATURDAY AT JHW.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR/VFR WITH DIMINISHING LEFTOVER RAIN AND WET
SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR WITH SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND
FLURRIES.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING A PERIOD OF BRISK NORTHEASTERLY AND THEN
NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE LOWER LAKES REGION THAT WILL RESULT IN
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS. ON LAKE ONTARIO...THE
STRONGER WINDS ARE DEVELOPING NOW AND WILL LAST THROUGH SUNDAY...
WHILE ON LAKE ERIE THE STRONGER WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND
LAST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. DUE TO ALL THIS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT AS OUTLINED BELOW.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
         THIS EVENING FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/APFFEL
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...JJR








000
FXUS61 KOKX 010601
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
201 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW TRACKS TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY. WINDY AND COOL ON SUNDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE NOR`EASTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSES ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY
BREEZY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS REMAINS WELL
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. STRONG SHORTWAVE/VORT
DIVES SEWD AND ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT...LIGHT RAIN STILL BEING GENERATED VIA ISENTROPIC
LIFT JUST EAST OF A LOW LEVEL TROWAL. ECHOES ATTM HAVE BEEN
DRIFTING NW INTO SW CT...NYC METRO AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
HAVE INCREASED POP THERE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS
TROWAL IS FCST TO DRIFT WSW OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT RAIN SHIFTING
MOSTLY INTO NJ. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR LATE TONIGHT FOR
AREAS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST SINCE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
MOIST...WITH CONTINUED APPROACH OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
THE NOSE OF A CYCLONIC UPPER JET STREAK LATE TO PROVIDE LIFT.

LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CLOSED DEEP UPPER LOW PIVOTS EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. AT THE SURFACE...A COUPLE OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE INITIAL LOW MOVES
JUST E OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AS THE NEXT LOW FOLLOWS ABOUT 12
HOURS LATER.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE
WEST AND THESE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL RESULT
IN WINDY CONDITIONS.

NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE SATURDAY...THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...FEEL WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS WILL NOT BE MET DURING THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH EASTERN LOCATIONS COULD COME CLOSE.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR 40 KT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED SAT NIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT TOO HIGH...AND IT IS A THIRD PERIOD EVENT. WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY WIND RELATED HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

CSTL LOCATIONS WILL OBSERVE PERIODS OF RAIN...WITH PROBABILITIES
TAPERING DOWNWARD AS YOU HEAD INLAND. WITH CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN CHILLY. EXPECT TEMPS UPPER 40S TO AROUND
50.

COLD AIR ADVECTION SAT NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 30S
MANY LOCATIONS...EXCEPT AROUND 40 NEAR THE COAST.

RAIN TAPERS OFF. A FEW SNOW FLAKES ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN. IN FACT...A FEW SREF MEMBERS
OUTPUT MEASURABLE SNOW. HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR PRECIP TO
END BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE. WINDY FOR SUNDAY AS SFC LOW DEPARTS
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOOKING AT 09Z SREF AND VARIOUS 12Z
MODEL SOUNDINGS...APPEARS WE`RE SHORT OF 40 KT WIND GUST CRITERIA
FOR ADVISORY...BUT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE 27 KT SUSTAIN CRITERIA IN
PLACES...ESPECIALLY AROUND NYC.

CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING COULD GENERATE A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY...BUT HAVE
NOT INCLUDED THIS IN THE FCST AS NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANCE. DO NOTE THAT THERE ARE 3 MEMBERS IN THE 09Z SREF THAT
DO GENERATE MEASURABLE SNOW - SO IT`S SOMETHING TO MONITOR. MAX
TEMPS CLOSE TO 12Z MOS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S AND CONSISTENT
WITH THE 00Z ENSEMBLE EC/GEFS MOS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE START OF THE WEEK WITH SLOW
MODERATION OF TEMPS.

COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES EXPECTED SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY AS NEXT SHORT WAVE DIGS IN. POPS REMAIN LOW FOR THIS EVENT
AS TIMING REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN AND OVERALL PCPN APPEARS LIGHT.
12Z GEFS SUPPORTS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AS PATTERN IS BECOMING
NON-LINEAR. NOTE THAT MORE GEFS MEMBERS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF THE
FASTER/PROGRESSIVE 12Z ECMWF...THUS HAVE KEPT FRIDAY DRY WITH
COOLER/NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. ANOTHER LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OFF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND INTENSIFY
AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.

MAINLY WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH CIGS 1 THSD - 2 THSD FT AND PERIODS OF
RAIN ARE FORECAST UNTIL SUNSET. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME VFR AFT
SUNSET.

WINDS...NE 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT UNTIL SUNRISE...N NEAR 20
KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...BECOMING NNW
SATURDAY NIGHT AND NW...TO THE RIGHT OF 310 DEGREES MAGNETIC ON
SUNDAY AT 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 KT...ISOLATED GUSTS TO 40
KT POSSIBLE.

KSWF WILL HAVE LIGHTER RAIN AND WINDS...AS THEY WILL BE FARTHER AWAY
FROM THE OFFSHORE LOWS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST.
NORTH WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KT WITH 30-40 KT GUSTS.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT.
.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR DURING THE DAY...CONDS LOWERING TO MVFR IN -RA AT
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES AS IT
TRACKS SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS. THE WATERS REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

OCNL GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN TONIGHT AND ARE
MORE LIKELY BY LATE SAT MORNING...WITH STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED BY
LATE DAY SAT OR SAT NIGHT.

ROUGH SEAS PER 18Z WAVEWATCH SEEM QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN
EXPECTED WINDS.

GALES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. WINDS START TO DIMINISH AT NIGHT. BY MONDAY
MORNING...ALL WATERS SHOULD BE BELOW GALE FORCE GUSTS...HOWEVER SCA
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL ACROSS THE OCEAN AND EASTERN WATERS
THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL
LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO REACH ALL OF THE WATERS
WHEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE FLOW
BACKS TO WSW ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUES SUCH ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY THIS EVENING...THEN MORE OF A STEADY
LIGHT TO MODERATE ON SAT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF SAT NIGHT.

STILL EXPECT TOTAL RAINFALL TO RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH OVER ORANGE COUNTY AND INTERIOR LOCALES...TO ONE HALF TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER SE CT/E SUFFOLK COUNTY. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED DURATION OF PRECIPITATION OF 24 HOURS...NO SIGNIFICANT
HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED FROM THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A STRONG NE FLOW...A FEW LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH COASTAL
FLOODING BENCHMARKS AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
PORTIONS OF NY HARBOR /SANDY HOOK VICINITY/...THE LONG ISLAND
SOUTH SHORE BAYS...AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND WOULD BE THE MORE
SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS. PECONIC BAY MAY COME CLOSE IN SPOTS AS WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...TONGUE
AVIATION...GC
MARINE...TONGUE/PW
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KALY 010552
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
152 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO THE CAROLINA COAST
THIS MORNING...AND TRIGGERING AN INTENSE STORM OFFSHORE. THIS
STORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST REACHING NOVA SCOTIA LATE SUNDAY. IT
WILL BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION TODAY...WITH GREATER
AMOUNTS OVER NEW ENGLAND. AS THE STORM INTENSIFIES TONIGHT IT WILL
WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND DRAW COLDER AIR INTO REGION WITH RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY...RETURNING TO NORMALS BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE REACHED AS FAR NORTH AS THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND BERKSHIRE COUNTY. HAVE RAISED POPS OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT AND REDUCED POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WERE RADAR LOOPS SHOW LITTLE ACTIVITY. HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT TEMPS UPWARD BY 2 TO 3 DEGREES IN ORDER TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. CURRENT LOW TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

TODAY...TNGT...DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE INSISTING ON MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM
REMAINING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...STILL ADMITTEDLY NOT
OVERLY CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST SOME BANDS OF PRECIP APPROACH AND
POSSIBLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF AT LEAST SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA
LATE SAT AFTN INTO SUN AM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS 4 DISTINCT
SHORTWAVES...WITH THE MAIN FEATURE CURRENTLY TRANSLATING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING IMPULSE RACING
SE INTO NW ONTARIO. IT IS THIS LAST FEATURE...IN NW ONTARIO...THAT
HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO PULL THINGS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST THAN
CURRENT MODELS INDICATE. AT THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT SOME RAIN
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING SATURDAY...ESP IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THEN...AS THE LOW
RAPIDLY DEVELOPS OFFSHORE WITH SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...CURRENT
PROJECTIONS INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE STEADIER PRECIP REMAINS
CONFINED CLOSER TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS
A LOW PROBABILITY THAT A BAND OF STEADIER PRECIP ADVANCES
NORTHWEST OR WEST AROUND THE THE DEVELOPING LOW...ESP LATE SAT NT
OR EARLY SUNDAY. SO...WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
WELL INTO SAT NT...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE.
HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO VERY CLOSELY MONITOR RADAR TRENDS...AND
ALSO NEAR TERM FORECAST GUIDANCE FROM THE RAP/HRRR...WHICH MAY
GIVE SOME NEAR- TO SHORT- TERM HINTS THAT PRECIP MAY BE TRENDING
FARTHER N AND W. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN IN VALLEYS
THROUGH SAT...WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...ESP ELEVATIONS GREATER THAN 1500 FT. THEN...DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH DYNAMICAL COOLING CAN OCCUR...RAIN AND OR RAIN SHOWERS
SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS ALL ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT SAT
EVENING...AND PERHAPS EVEN IN VALLEY AREAS LATER SAT NT. CURRENT
GRIDDED DATABASE INCLUDES SOME MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF UP TO AN
INCH ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND
ALSO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...BY SUNRISE SUNDAY.
ALSO...UP TO ONE HALF INCH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AGAIN...THERE REMAINS A SMALL PROBABILITY
THAT GREATER AMTS COULD OCCUR...AT LEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LITCHFIELD CO IF
THE PRECIP TRENDS FARTHER WEST.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN VALLEYS FOR
SAT...THEN FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR SAT NT IN VALLEYS...WITH
POSSIBLY SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SAT AFTN INTO SAT NT...AND MAY GUST TO 25-30 MPH...ESP IN
SOME N/S ORIENTED VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUN MRNG THE 500HPA CUT OFF IS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST...AS AN INTENSE
SFC LOW IS ABOUT 300 MI SE OF CAPE COD. WINDS WILL BE HOWLING ACROSS
FCA AS A 25HPA SFC WIND GRADIENT IS OVER NY.

THE 00UTC GFS/GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH PVS FCST...AND THE NAM
HAS BEEN DISREGARDED AS AN OUTLIER. AS THE INTENSE VERTICAL
SYSTEM LIFTS NE SUN CLOUDS AND SCT -SHSN WILL DIMINISH AS SKIES
CLR FM W TO E. STRONG WINDS...AND CAA WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE
WINTER THAN EARLY NOV. ACTUAL TEMPS WILL BE KEPT IN THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S SUN...AND FALL TO THE TEENS AND 20S SUN NT UNDER CLR SKIES
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS E FM OHIO VLY. WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY
DIM AS 12 HPA WIND GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE FCA MUCH OF THE NIGHT
BEFORE RELAXING MONDAY MORNING.

THE REST OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS 500HPA RIDGE
BUILDS FM THE MISS VLY TO THE ATLC SEABOARD TUES. THE SFC HIGH
COVERS MUCH OF THE EAST...BUT IS CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH AND ALONG
THE ATLC COAST BY TUE MRNG. TEMPS WILL STILL BE CHILLY AND BLO
NORMAL MONDAY W/MS CONDS. MON NT WAA OVER THE TOP OF THE 500HPA
RIDGE WILL RESULT IN SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS TEMPS WILL RETURN
TO NR NORMALS AND CLOUDS LIMIT MINS. TUES A WMFNT WILL LIFT NE OF
THE REGION IN THE MRNG AS THE 500HPA RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE. TEMPS
WILL MODERATE MORE INTO THE 50S WITH PC CONDS. TUES NT A TRAILING
CDFNT ASSOC WITH A LOW OVER HUDSONS BAY CANADA WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FCA AS ITS WEAKENING AND SLOWING WITH LITTLE TO NO UPR
DYNAMICS. SCT -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE TUE NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...COOLER AIR WILL POUR
INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A FEW
LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES TURNING COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LIGHT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
LOW EXTENDING FURTHER WEST THAN EARLIER RUNS. AS A RESULT...THE
FORECAST FOR THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES WILL NOW FEATURE
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT PCPN. DURING SATURDAY EVENING...
RAIN IS FORECAST TO MIX WITH SNOW AT THE KGFL/KPSF/KALB TAF
SITES...BUT WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AT KGFL/KALB BY
THE TIME IT COOLS OFF ENOUGH FOR THE PCPN TO BE ALL SNOW. AT
KPSF...THERE COULD BE A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE SATURDAY
EVENING BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS TO SNOW SHOWERS. THE MOST
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FROM LATE SATURDAY MORNING
ON. DEPENDING ON THE TIMMING OF ANY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...IFR
CONDITIONS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SATURDAY EVENING...
ESPECIALLY IFR VSBYS IN THE SNOW. IFR VSBYS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY
AT KPSF. JUST LIQUID PCPN IS EXPECTED AT KPOU THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY
(THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD).

WINDS BE NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AT 5 TO 10 KTS.
DURING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING THE WIND AT THE TAF SITES
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO NORTH AND THEN TO NORTH-NORTHWEST...WITH
SPEED INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KTS BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH GUSTS
OF 15 TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED
SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31.0 NO
SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT: NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...TURNING
TO SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS
OF THE SEASON OVER US BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SND/KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL








000
FXUS61 KBGM 010546
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
146 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR VICINITY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS. AS COLDER AIR
DESCENDS UPON THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES FOR SOME PARTS OF THE AREA WHILE DIMINISHING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
945 PM UPDATE...NO CHG TO CRNT FCST OTHER THAN MINOR NEAR TERM
TWEEKS. --SHRA REMAIN CONFINED TO WRN ZONES...ALTHO SOME -SHRA
MAY WORK INTO THE POCONOS AND SRN CATSKILLS LATE TNGT. OTRW...WEAK
FORCING OVRNGT WITH NOT ALOT GOING ON. PREV BLO...

645 PM UPDATE...
FCST IN FINE SHAPE. ONLY TWEEK WAS TO LOWER POPS
JUST A BIT IN THE NEAR TERM ACRS THE CNTRL SRN TIER AND WRN FINGER
LAKES WHERE -SHRA ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME SPREADING EWD. PREV
BLO...

4 PM UPDATE...
STILL A STRIPE OF SUNSHINE FROM SCRANTON THROUGH DELHI FOR A TIME
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT REMAINDER OF AREA HAS INCREASING CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER LEVELS. IT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
INTO THIS EVENING. ACTUAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUITE SPOTTY
HOWEVER.

VERY SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS NOW DIGGING THROUGH WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...EN ROUTE TO CUTTING OFF UPPER LOW WHILE CROSSING SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...AND AT THE NC-SC COASTLINE BY 18Z SATURDAY.
500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE EXTREMELY ANOMALOUS...5 TO 6 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL IN THE CAROLINAS...YET ALSO FAR ENOUGH
REMOVED FROM OUR REGION TO HAVE ONLY PERIPHERAL IMPACT. WE WILL STILL
GET THE UPPER TROUGH AND GRADUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
CLOUDS...BUT LACK OF DYNAMICS ALOFT AND FOCUSING FEATURES NEAR THE
SURFACE WILL MAKE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY LIGHT AND
SPOTTY...WITH AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL ENHANCEMENT IN THE
POCONOS-WYOMING VALLEY AREAS DUE TO BRIEF EASTERLY JET AS LOW
DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT.

FOR TONIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF DIGGING TROUGH/CUTTING OFF
LOW WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN PA/NY...KEEPING SOME LIGHT SHOWER
CHANCES MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER TO WESTERN-CENTRAL
FINGER LAKES THIS EVENING. THEN OVERNIGHT...MINOR FRONTOGENESIS-
CONVERGENCE IN THE MID LEVELS OVER OUR REGION AS CYCLOGENESIS
ENSUES AT THE SURFACE WELL OFFSHORE THE MIDATLANTIC COAST. IN
EFFECT...A 700MB PSEUDO-FRONT WILL LOSE DEFINITION OVER OUR
AREA AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY.
A BETTER LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN WYOMING VALLEY TO POCONOS DURING BRIEF
JUXTAPOSITION OF TRANSITORY EASTERLY JET /ATLANTIC MOISTURE
CONTRIBUTION/ AND MID LEVEL LIFT 09Z-12Z SAT.

WITH EXCEPTION OF WYOMING VALLEY-POCONOS...OVERALL THOUGH LACK OF
JET SUPPORT...AND THE DIMINISHING TO EVENTUALLY ELIMINATION OF
ISENTROPIC UPLIFT...WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION
RATHER SPOTTY ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. COLD
AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS SATURDAY WILL ALSO BE
QUITE MINOR...AND NOT YET ENOUGH TO GENERATE LAKE RESPONSE.
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN NOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPEAR COLD ENOUGH
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR SNOW TO MIX IN EXCEPT PERHAPS HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN CATSKILLS /AND EVEN THAT IS IFFY-
SPOTTY/.

LOWS TONIGHT MID 30S TO NEAR 40...THEN TEMPERATURES NOT MOVING MUCH
ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
350 PM UPDATE...
DUE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL VERY GRADUALLY BACK NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHILE BEING PRETTY BRISK DUE TO THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEEP NOVA SCOTIA-BOUND LOW...AND THE
OHIO VALLEY HIGH. THIS WILL MEAN A VERY LIMITED FETCH FOR GREAT
LAKES MOISTURE...DESPITE COLD ENOUGH 850MB TEMPERATURES FOR A LAKE
RESPONSE /WELL BELOW ZERO CELSIUS/. THAT ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR
MASS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...DEWPOINTS CRASHING THROUGH THE
20S SUNDAY...WILL MEAN ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
AT BEST. BEFORE THAT...STILL SOME SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WHICH WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WHILE DIMINISHING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WHERE THEY OCCUR WILL BE MEAGER AND MAINLY LIMITED TO HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION AS WELL AS THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS.

CYCLONIC PRESSURE GRADIENT SUNDAY WILL PUSH GUSTS INTO 25-35 MPH
RANGE...WHICH ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S WILL FEEL QUITE COLD. DRYNESS OF AIR MASS WILL ALSO ALLOW
CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY FOR A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. LOWS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES MONDAY /UPPER 40S-LOW 50S/ DUE TO
WARM AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
WILL PROVIDE MILDER TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT SWINGING OUT OF ONTARIO AND THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

AFTER THE MILD START, TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

COMPLEX UPR AND SFC LOW SSYTEM MVG THRU THE AREA THIS MRNG.
CNRNTLY AND THRU THE NGT...THE SYSTEM IS GENERATING A NELY FLOW
AND KEEPING ANY LE PCPN WELL WEST OF THE AREA. WEAK LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPR LOW ITSELF MAY GENERATE SOME LGT OCON AND
PSBL MVFR COGS AND VSBYS FOR A TIME THIS MRNG...INTO ARND MIDDAY
ON SAT. EVENTUALLY...MORE NLY FLOW AND COLDER AIR WILL GENERATE
SOME ONTARIO AND FINGER LAKE SNOW SHWRS LATE IN THE PD WHICH MAY
GENERATE MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT...OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN-WED...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DGM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 010542
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
142 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
TRANSLATE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST LATE
TONIGHT. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD LATE SATURDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE AND CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL SEE JUST SOME FRINGE EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM...AMOUNTING TO SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL CREATE GUSTY
NORTH WINDS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER
RETURNS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 107 AM EDT SATURDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO LOWER TEMPS ACRS THE
DACKS BASED ON CRNT OBS. OTHERWISE REST OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
CLOUD SKIES AND COOL TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY MORNING
WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NEWD TO NEAR OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N
70W BENCHMARK BY LATE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE
OVERCAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT OTHERWISE WE/LL ONLY
EXPERIENCE FRINGE PRECIPITATION AFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH JUST SOME LIGHT RAIN/HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AFFECTING THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS
VERMONT...AND MOSTLY NOT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. POPS RANGE
FROM 30-40 PERCENT AND ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SHOULD ONLY BE
A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL (OR A DUSTING OF SNOW AT
THE SUMMITS) THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND 32-34F AT
THE SUMMITS ABOVE 3000 FEET.

THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NEWD THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH AN INCREASING NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED NORTH
WINDS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE NORTH WINDS OF 10-15 MPH THRU THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AROUND DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH OR
SO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION MOST OVER
LOCATIONS. IF LOW TRACK IS A BIT FURTHER WEST (SIMILAR TO 12Z
GFS)...A DUSTING TO 1" IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN VT VALLEYS DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIFORM GIVEN
CLOUDY/WINDY ENVIRONMENT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

BRISK NORTH WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH DEVELOPMENT OF
PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. COMBINED WITH MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH MUCH OF THE
DAY...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH POSSIBLE. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS NERN VT AS SURFACE LOW DEPARTS NEWD
ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY AND
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOOKING FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT FRIDAY...12Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO BE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH 00Z RUNS AND AMONG THE GFS/EURO MEMBERS --
AT LEAST THRU WEDNESDAY. DEVIATIONS GET LARGER FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVERALL THE FORECAST HASN`T CHANGED MUCH. LOOKS PRETTY
QUIET MONDAY & TUESDAY AND THEN GETTING UNSETTLED FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. DAILY SPECIFICS BELOW...

MONDAY:
THE WEEKEND STORM WILL BE FAR TO THE EAST, WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOWLY RELAXING AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST, BUT STILL ENOUGH TO MAKE
FOR A SEMI-BREEZY DAY -- PERHAPS SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20MPH.
GUIDANCE ALL SIMILAR, SO A BLEND LOOKS THE BEST WAY TO GO. SHOULD
BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS AND EVEN LESS IN THE WAY OF ANY
THREAT OF RAIN/SNOW (SO 0% POP IS GOOD). 925MB TEMPERATURES START
OFF CHILLY (-5C OR SO) BUT SLOWLY WARM TOWARD -1C BY THE
AFTERNOON. WHAT THAT MEANS AT THE SURFACE ARE TEMPERATURES ONLY IN
THE LOW 40S (UPPER 30S HIGHER ELEVATIONS).

MONDAY NIGHT:
FLOW STARTS TO TURN SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER AND
EAST OF HERE. AS WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST, WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME
MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION START TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE TRICKY
PART. THINK COLDEST READINGS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM
WITH LOW/MID 20S EXPECTED WITH MORE TIME WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER, IF THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE CLOUDS IS A FEW HOURS
DIFFERENT, IT COULD MEAN LOWS COULD BE COLDER OR WARMER. BOTTOM
LINE, WENT A BIT ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE, BUT THINGS ARE
UNCERTAIN.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT:
WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. 925MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 8C BY
LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
UNDER PERFECT CONDITIONS, BUT CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME RAIN SHOWERS
WILL KEEP THAT FROM HAPPENING. 50S (THOUGH A BIT ABOVE NORMAL)
WILL DO IT. DURING THE DAY A FRONT SLOWLY SAGS TOWARD THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST, HOWEVER THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MEANS THAT
ULTIMATELY THE FRONT WILL PULL UP STATIONARY AND START TO
DISSIPATE IN PLACE. SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. SO LOW CHANCES IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE
DAY, BUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH SO
CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF
BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS BEING ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTION WITH
POPS AROUND 60% THERE BUT TRENDING DOWN TO <30% IN SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS OF VERMONT. GOOD SUPPORT FOR THE MODELS FOR THIS SORT OF
ORIENTATION OF RAIN CHANCES THANKS TO A STALLED FRONT JUST
NORTH/WEST OF HERE. CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING MUCH. LOTS OF 40S AND A FEW UPPER 30S.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY:
LOOKS LIKE A SOMEWHAT DREARY COUPLE OF DAYS. SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH
EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVES IS IN PLACE. WITH THE STALLED FRONT,
WE`LL SEE SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN BREAK OUT AS THE WEAK
DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WON`T VARY MUCH. STUCK
WITH A MODEL BLEND, BUT EVEN THAT MAY BE TOO WARM DURING THE DAY
AND TOO COOL AT NIGHT. BASICALLY LOW 50S IN THE DAY, 40S AT NIGHT.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY:
MODELS DIVERGE MORE BY THIS POINT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SAY WE
WILL HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFY SOME AND CAUSE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS. DIFFERENCES ARE WITH WHERE THIS ALL HAPPENS. GFS IS
FARTHER WEST WITH TROUGH AND CYCLOGENESIS AND SLOWER WITH THE
PATTERN EVOLUTION. IT WOULD KEEP US IN A WARMER ENVIRONMENT WITH
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT TRANSITIONING TO SNOW
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH PASSES BY AND COLDER AIR
COMES IN. 12Z ECMWF HAS ALL OF THIS HAPPENING QUICKLY THURSDAY
NIGHT SUCH THAT COLDER AIR IS MOVING IN BY FRIDAY MORNING
RESULTING IN A MORE CHANCE OF WHITE STUFF, EVEN AT LOW ELEVATIONS.
AS A COMPARISON, GFS HAS 850MB TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 0C AS OF 12Z
FRIDAY -- MEANWHILE THE ECMWF IS ALREADY DOWN TO -8 TO -10C AT
THAT SAME TIME.

THIS FAR OUT, JUST STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND WHICH RESULTS IN SOME
LIGHT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE ROUGHLY 2000FT AND RAIN SHOWERS
BELOW THAT AS HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE ONLY IN THE 40S.

I`M SURE THIS FORECAST WILL CHANGE SEVERAL MORE TIMES BETWEEN NOW
AND THEN. THAT`S JUST THE WAY THINGS WORK....

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY. EXPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR RAIN/SNOW MIX TO
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z. NO OBSTRUCTION TO VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED UNTIL
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY WHEN VSBYS WILL LOWER TO 3-5SM WITH PSBL IFR AT
MPV IN LIGHT SNOW. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NORTH UNDER 10 KNOTS
TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE FROM THE NORTH INTO THE 10 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE AFTER 12Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
06Z SUN-00Z MON: MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT TRENDING VFR
DURING SUNDAY WITH ANY SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS ENDING. NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GUSTING IN THE 25-35KT RANGE ON SUNDAY.

00Z MON-12Z TUE: VFR

12Z TUE ONWARD: MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND LOWERING CEILINGS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE KCXX-88D DOPPLER RADAR IN
COLCHESTER VERMONT IS OUT OF SERVICE AT THIS TIME. ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIANS HAVE CHECKED THE RADAR AND FOUND A PROBLEM WITH HIGH
VOLTAGE ARCING. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS ARE AT THE RADAR SITE THIS
MORNING ATTEMPTING REPAIRS. OWING TO THE COMPLEX NATURE OF THE
PROBLEM...IT APPEARS THE EARLIEST RETURN TO SERVICE WILL BE
SOMETIME ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...RJS
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KALY 010535
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
135 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO THE CAROLINA COAST
THIS MORNING...AND TRIGGERING AN INTENSE STORM OFFSHORE. THIS
STORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST REACHING NOVA SCOTIA LATE SUNDAY. IT
WILL BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION TODAY...WITH GREATER
AMOUNTS OVER NEW ENGLAND. AS THE STORM INTENSIFIES TONIGHT IT WILL
WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND DRAW COLDER AIR INTO REGION WITH RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY...RETURNING TO NORMALS BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE REACHED AS FAR NORTH AS THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND BERKSHIRE COUNTY. HAVE RAISED POPS OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT AND REDUCED POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WERE RADAR LOOPS SHOW LITTLE ACTIVITY. HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT TEMPS UPWARD BY 2 TO 3 DEGREES IN ORDER TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. CURRENT LOW TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

TODAY...TNGT...DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE INSISTING ON MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM
REMAINING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...STILL ADMITTEDLY NOT
OVERLY CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST SOME BANDS OF PRECIP APPROACH AND
POSSIBLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF AT LEAST SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA
LATE SAT AFTN INTO SUN AM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS 4 DISTINCT
SHORTWAVES...WITH THE MAIN FEATURE CURRENTLY TRANSLATING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING IMPULSE RACING
SE INTO NW ONTARIO. IT IS THIS LAST FEATURE...IN NW ONTARIO...THAT
HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO PULL THINGS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST THAN
CURRENT MODELS INDICATE. AT THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT SOME RAIN
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING SATURDAY...ESP IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THEN...AS THE LOW
RAPIDLY DEVELOPS OFFSHORE WITH SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...CURRENT
PROJECTIONS INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE STEADIER PRECIP REMAINS
CONFINED CLOSER TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS
A LOW PROBABILITY THAT A BAND OF STEADIER PRECIP ADVANCES
NORTHWEST OR WEST AROUND THE THE DEVELOPING LOW...ESP LATE SAT NT
OR EARLY SUNDAY. SO...WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
WELL INTO SAT NT...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE.
HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO VERY CLOSELY MONITOR RADAR TRENDS...AND
ALSO NEAR TERM FORECAST GUIDANCE FROM THE RAP/HRRR...WHICH MAY
GIVE SOME NEAR- TO SHORT- TERM HINTS THAT PRECIP MAY BE TRENDING
FARTHER N AND W. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN IN VALLEYS
THROUGH SAT...WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...ESP ELEVATIONS GREATER THAN 1500 FT. THEN...DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH DYNAMICAL COOLING CAN OCCUR...RAIN AND OR RAIN SHOWERS
SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS ALL ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT SAT
EVENING...AND PERHAPS EVEN IN VALLEY AREAS LATER SAT NT. CURRENT
GRIDDED DATABASE INCLUDES SOME MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF UP TO AN
INCH ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND
ALSO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...BY SUNRISE SUNDAY.
ALSO...UP TO ONE HALF INCH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AGAIN...THERE REMAINS A SMALL PROBABILITY
THAT GREATER AMTS COULD OCCUR...AT LEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LITCHFIELD CO IF
THE PRECIP TRENDS FARTHER WEST.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN VALLEYS FOR
SAT...THEN FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR SAT NT IN VALLEYS...WITH
POSSIBLY SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SAT AFTN INTO SAT NT...AND MAY GUST TO 25-30 MPH...ESP IN
SOME N/S ORIENTED VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUN MRNG THE 500HPA CUT OFF IS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST...AS AN INTENSE
SFC LOW IS ABOUT 300 MI SE OF CAPE COD. WINDS WILL BE HOWLING ACROSS
FCA AS A 25HPA SFC WIND GRADIENT IS OVER NY.

THE 00UTC GFS/GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH PVS FCST...AND THE NAM
HAS BEEN DISREGARDED AS AN OUTLIER. AS THE INTENSE VERTICAL
SYSTEM LIFTS NE SUN CLOUDS AND SCT -SHSN WILL DIMINISH AS SKIES
CLR FM W TO E. STRONG WINDS...AND CAA WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE
WINTER THAN EARLY NOV. ACTUAL TEMPS WILL BE KEPT IN THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S SUN...AND FALL TO THE TEENS AND 20S SUN NT UNDER CLR SKIES
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS E FM OHIO VLY. WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY
DIM AS 12 HPA WIND GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE FCA MUCH OF THE NIGHT
BEFORE RELAXING MONDAY MORNING.

THE REST OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS 500HPA RIDGE
BUILDS FM THE MISS VLY TO THE ATLC SEABOARD TUES. THE SFC HIGH
COVERS MUCH OF THE EAST...BUT IS CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH AND ALONG
THE ATLC COAST BY TUE MRNG. TEMPS WILL STILL BE CHILLY AND BLO
NORMAL MONDAY W/MS CONDS. MON NT WAA OVER THE TOP OF THE 500HPA
RIDGE WILL RESULT IN SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS TEMPS WILL RETURN
TO NR NORMALS AND CLOUDS LIMIT MINS. TUES A WMFNT WILL LIFT NE OF
THE REGION IN THE MRNG AS THE 500HPA RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE. TEMPS
WILL MODERATE MORE INTO THE 50S WITH PC CONDS. TUES NT A TRAILING
CDFNT ASSOC WITH A LOW OVER HUDSONS BAY CANADA WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FCA AS ITS WEAKENING AND SLOWING WITH LITTLE TO NO UPR
DYNAMICS. SCT -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE TUE NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...COOLER AIR WILL POUR
INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A FEW
LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES TURNING COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW AT THE HUDSON
VALLEY TAF SITES. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A CEILING BETWEEN 3000
FEET AND 5000 FEET. VFR BECOMING MVFR IS EXPECTED AT KPSF AS THE
CEILING LOWERS TO AROUND 15OO FT MSL LATER SATURDAY. AFTER
02Z...SOME SHOWERS COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH THE KPOU AREA AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALL TAF SITES HAVE
A THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD EXCEPT AT KPSF WHERE THEY ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MVFR
LATER SATURDAY.

WINDS FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AT LESS
THAN 10 KT...THEN WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15KT FROM THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31.0  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...TURNING
TO SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS
OF THE SEASON OVER US BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SND/KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL








000
FXUS61 KBTV 010508
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
108 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
TRANSLATE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST LATE
TONIGHT. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD LATE SATURDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE AND CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL SEE JUST SOME FRINGE EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM...AMOUNTING TO SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL CREATE GUSTY
NORTH WINDS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER
RETURNS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 107 AM EDT SATURDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO LOWER TEMPS ACRS THE
DACKS BASED ON CRNT OBS. OTHERWISE REST OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
CLOUD SKIES AND COOL TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY MORNING
WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NEWD TO NEAR OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N
70W BENCHMARK BY LATE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE
OVERCAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT OTHERWISE WE/LL ONLY
EXPERIENCE FRINGE PRECIPITATION AFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH JUST SOME LIGHT RAIN/HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AFFECTING THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS
VERMONT...AND MOSTLY NOT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. POPS RANGE
FROM 30-40 PERCENT AND ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SHOULD ONLY BE
A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL (OR A DUSTING OF SNOW AT
THE SUMMITS) THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND 32-34F AT
THE SUMMITS ABOVE 3000 FEET.

THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NEWD THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH AN INCREASING NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED NORTH
WINDS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE NORTH WINDS OF 10-15 MPH THRU THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AROUND DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH OR
SO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION MOST OVER
LOCATIONS. IF LOW TRACK IS A BIT FURTHER WEST (SIMILAR TO 12Z
GFS)...A DUSTING TO 1" IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN VT VALLEYS DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIFORM GIVEN
CLOUDY/WINDY ENVIRONMENT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

BRISK NORTH WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH DEVELOPMENT OF
PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. COMBINED WITH MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH MUCH OF THE
DAY...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH POSSIBLE. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS NERN VT AS SURFACE LOW DEPARTS NEWD
ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY AND
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOOKING FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT FRIDAY...12Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO BE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH 00Z RUNS AND AMONG THE GFS/EURO MEMBERS --
AT LEAST THRU WEDNESDAY. DEVIATIONS GET LARGER FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVERALL THE FORECAST HASN`T CHANGED MUCH. LOOKS PRETTY
QUIET MONDAY & TUESDAY AND THEN GETTING UNSETTLED FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. DAILY SPECIFICS BELOW...

MONDAY:
THE WEEKEND STORM WILL BE FAR TO THE EAST, WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOWLY RELAXING AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST, BUT STILL ENOUGH TO MAKE
FOR A SEMI-BREEZY DAY -- PERHAPS SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20MPH.
GUIDANCE ALL SIMILAR, SO A BLEND LOOKS THE BEST WAY TO GO. SHOULD
BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS AND EVEN LESS IN THE WAY OF ANY
THREAT OF RAIN/SNOW (SO 0% POP IS GOOD). 925MB TEMPERATURES START
OFF CHILLY (-5C OR SO) BUT SLOWLY WARM TOWARD -1C BY THE
AFTERNOON. WHAT THAT MEANS AT THE SURFACE ARE TEMPERATURES ONLY IN
THE LOW 40S (UPPER 30S HIGHER ELEVATIONS).

MONDAY NIGHT:
FLOW STARTS TO TURN SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER AND
EAST OF HERE. AS WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST, WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME
MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION START TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE TRICKY
PART. THINK COLDEST READINGS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM
WITH LOW/MID 20S EXPECTED WITH MORE TIME WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER, IF THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE CLOUDS IS A FEW HOURS
DIFFERENT, IT COULD MEAN LOWS COULD BE COLDER OR WARMER. BOTTOM
LINE, WENT A BIT ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE, BUT THINGS ARE
UNCERTAIN.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT:
WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. 925MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 8C BY
LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
UNDER PERFECT CONDITIONS, BUT CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME RAIN SHOWERS
WILL KEEP THAT FROM HAPPENING. 50S (THOUGH A BIT ABOVE NORMAL)
WILL DO IT. DURING THE DAY A FRONT SLOWLY SAGS TOWARD THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST, HOWEVER THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MEANS THAT
ULTIMATELY THE FRONT WILL PULL UP STATIONARY AND START TO
DISSIPATE IN PLACE. SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. SO LOW CHANCES IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE
DAY, BUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH SO
CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF
BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS BEING ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTION WITH
POPS AROUND 60% THERE BUT TRENDING DOWN TO <30% IN SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS OF VERMONT. GOOD SUPPORT FOR THE MODELS FOR THIS SORT OF
ORIENTATION OF RAIN CHANCES THANKS TO A STALLED FRONT JUST
NORTH/WEST OF HERE. CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING MUCH. LOTS OF 40S AND A FEW UPPER 30S.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY:
LOOKS LIKE A SOMEWHAT DREARY COUPLE OF DAYS. SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH
EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVES IS IN PLACE. WITH THE STALLED FRONT,
WE`LL SEE SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN BREAK OUT AS THE WEAK
DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WON`T VARY MUCH. STUCK
WITH A MODEL BLEND, BUT EVEN THAT MAY BE TOO WARM DURING THE DAY
AND TOO COOL AT NIGHT. BASICALLY LOW 50S IN THE DAY, 40S AT NIGHT.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY:
MODELS DIVERGE MORE BY THIS POINT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SAY WE
WILL HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFY SOME AND CAUSE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS. DIFFERENCES ARE WITH WHERE THIS ALL HAPPENS. GFS IS
FARTHER WEST WITH TROUGH AND CYCLOGENESIS AND SLOWER WITH THE
PATTERN EVOLUTION. IT WOULD KEEP US IN A WARMER ENVIRONMENT WITH
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT TRANSITIONING TO SNOW
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH PASSES BY AND COLDER AIR
COMES IN. 12Z ECMWF HAS ALL OF THIS HAPPENING QUICKLY THURSDAY
NIGHT SUCH THAT COLDER AIR IS MOVING IN BY FRIDAY MORNING
RESULTING IN A MORE CHANCE OF WHITE STUFF, EVEN AT LOW ELEVATIONS.
AS A COMPARISON, GFS HAS 850MB TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 0C AS OF 12Z
FRIDAY -- MEANWHILE THE ECMWF IS ALREADY DOWN TO -8 TO -10C AT
THAT SAME TIME.

THIS FAR OUT, JUST STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND WHICH RESULTS IN SOME
LIGHT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE ROUGHLY 2000FT AND RAIN SHOWERS
BELOW THAT AS HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE ONLY IN THE 40S.

I`M SURE THIS FORECAST WILL CHANGE SEVERAL MORE TIMES BETWEEN NOW
AND THEN. THAT`S JUST THE WAY THINGS WORK....

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CEILINGS EXIST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND
WILL DO SO THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...THEN CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY AFTER 16Z...BUT NO OBSTRUCTION TO VISIBILITY IS
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE UNDER 10 KNOTS TONIGHT...THEN
INCREASE FROM THE NORTH INTO THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE AFTER 12Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
00Z SUN-00Z MON: VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR WITH A FEW
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AROUND. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GUSTING
IN THE 25-35KT RANGE ON SUNDAY.

00Z MON-12Z TUE: VFR

12Z TUE ONWARD: MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND LOWER CEILINGS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE KCXX-88D DOPPLER RADAR IN
COLCHESTER VERMONT IS OUT OF SERVICE AT THIS TIME. ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIANS HAVE CHECKED THE RADAR AND FOUND A PROBLEM WITH HIGH
VOLTAGE ARCING. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS ARE AT THE RADAR SITE THIS
MORNING ATTEMPTING REPAIRS. OWING TO THE COMPLEX NATURE OF THE
PROBLEM...IT APPEARS THE EARLIEST RETURN TO SERVICE WILL BE
SOMETIME ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KALY 010443
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1243 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT...WILL
PHASE WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WELL EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN
SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...TURNING TO SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. COLD...WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. AFTER A COLD START...MONDAY SHOULD BE FAIR
WITH MODERATING CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE REACHED AS FAR NORTH AS THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND BERKSHIRE COUNTY. HAVE RAINSED POPS OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT AND REDUCED POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WERE RADAR LOOPS SHOW LITTLE ACTIVITY. HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT TEMPS UPWARD BY 2 TO 3 DEGREES IN ORDER TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. CURRENT LOW TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SAT-SAT NT...DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE INSISTING ON MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM
REMAINING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...STILL ADMITTEDLY NOT
OVERLY CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST SOME BANDS OF PRECIP APPROACH AND
POSSIBLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF AT LEAST SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA LATE
SAT AFTN INTO SUN AM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS 4 DISTINCT
SHORTWAVES...WITH THE MAIN FEATURE CURRENTLY TRANSLATING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING IMPULSE RACING SE
INTO NW ONTARIO. IT IS THIS LAST FEATURE...IN NW ONTARIO...THAT HAS
SOME POTENTIAL TO PULL THINGS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST THAN CURRENT
MODELS INDICATE. AT THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING SATURDAY...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THEN...AS THE LOW RAPIDLY
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE WITH SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...CURRENT PROJECTIONS
INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE STEADIER PRECIP REMAINS CONFINED CLOSER
TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A LOW
PROBABILITY THAT A BAND OF STEADIER PRECIP ADVANCES NORTHWEST OR
WEST AROUND THE THE DEVELOPING LOW...ESP LATE SAT NT OR EARLY
SUNDAY. SO...WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WELL INTO
SAT NT...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE
TO VERY CLOSELY MONITOR RADAR TRENDS...AND ALSO NEAR TERM FORECAST
GUIDANCE FROM THE RAP/HRRR...WHICH MAY GIVE SOME NEAR- TO SHORT-
TERM HINTS THAT PRECIP MAY BE TRENDING FARTHER N AND W. THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN IN VALLEYS THROUGH SAT...WITH SOME
SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY...ESP
ELEVATIONS GREATER THAN 1500 FT. THEN...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
DYNAMICAL COOLING CAN OCCUR...RAIN AND OR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS ALL ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT SAT
EVENING...AND PERHAPS EVEN IN VALLEY AREAS LATER SAT NT. CURRENT
GRIDDED DATABASE INCLUDES SOME MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF UP TO AN
INCH ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND
ALSO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...BY SUNRISE SUNDAY.
ALSO...UP TO ONE HALF INCH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AGAIN...THERE REMAINS A SMALL PROBABILITY
THAT GREATER AMTS COULD OCCUR...AT LEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LITCHFIELD CO IF
THE PRECIP TRENDS FARTHER WEST.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN VALLEYS FOR
SAT...THEN FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR SAT NT IN VALLEYS...WITH
POSSIBLY SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SAT AFTN INTO SAT NT...AND MAY GUST TO 25-30 MPH...ESP IN
SOME N/S ORIENTED VALLEYS.

SUN-MON...AFTER ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF SUN AM...WITH
CLEARING BY AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE WINDY AND COLD SUNDAY...WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN VALLEYS...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR
HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS MAY STILL GUST TO 35-45 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND THE TACONICS...AND
POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS...AND
25-35 MPH ELSEWHERE. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 40S IN
VALLEYS...EXCEPT POSSIBLY 45-50 IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH MAINLY 30S TO NEAR 40 FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLEAR
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS LATE SUN NT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH
THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE FALL SEASON...GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH
SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAX TEMPS ON MON
SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID
40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SUN NT-MON SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
CLEAR...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY CLOUDS COULD PASS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CATSKILLS LATE SUN NT/EARLY MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO START THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER FOR MON NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MIN TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE CHILLY FOR MON NIGHT WITH
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...BUT LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME RAIN SHOWERS
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...WITH MAINLY 40S ACROSS THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO BE
IN THE 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...COOLER AIR WILL POUR INTO
THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES TURNING COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW AT THE HUDSON
VALLEY TAF SITES. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A CEILING BETWEEN 3000
FEET AND 5000 FEET. VFR BECOMING MVFR IS EXPECTED AT KPSF AS THE
CEILING LOWERS TO AROUND 15OO FT MSL LATER SATURDAY. AFTER
02Z...SOME SHOWERS COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH THE KPOU AREA AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALL TAF SITES HAVE
A THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD EXCEPT AT KPSF WHERE THEY ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MVFR
LATER SATURDAY.

WINDS FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AT LESS
THAN 10 KT...THEN WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15KT FROM THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31.0  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...TURNING
TO SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS
OF THE SEASON OVER US BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...SND/KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL








000
FXUS61 KOKX 010319
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1119 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW TRACKS TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY. WINDY AND COOL ON SUNDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE NOR`EASTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSES ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY
BREEZY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS REMAINS WELL
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. STRONG SHORTWAVE/VORT
DIVES SEWD AND ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT...LIGHT RAIN STILL BEING GENERATED VIA ISENTROPIC
LIFT JUST EAST OF A LOW LEVEL TROWAL. ECHOES ATTM HAVE BEEN
DRIFTING NW INTO SW CT...NYC METRO AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
HAVE INCREASED POP THERE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS
TROWAL IS FCST TO DRIFT WSW OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT RAIN SHIFTING
MOSTLY INTO NJ. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR LATE TONIGHT FOR
AREAS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST SINCE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
MOIST...WITH CONTINUED APPROACH OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
THE THE NOSE OF A CYCLONIC UPPER JET STREAK LATE TO PROVIDE LIFT.

LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CLOSED DEEP UPPER LOW PIVOTS EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. AT THE SURFACE...A COUPLE OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE INITIAL LOW MOVES
JUST E OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AS THE NEXT LOW FOLLOWS ABOUT 12
HOURS LATER.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE
WEST AND THESE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL RESULT
IN WINDY CONDITIONS.

NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE SATURDAY...THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...FEEL WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS WILL NOT BE MET DURING THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH EASTERN LOCATIONS COULD COME CLOSE.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR 40 KT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED SAT NIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT TOO HIGH...AND IT IS A THIRD PERIOD EVENT. WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY WIND RELATED HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

CSTL LOCATIONS WILL OBSERVE PERIODS OF RAIN...WITH PROBABILITIES
TAPERING DOWNWARD AS YOU HEAD INLAND. WITH CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN CHILLY. EXPECT TEMPS UPPER 40S TO AROUND
50.

COLD AIR ADVECTION SAT NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 30S
MANY LOCATIONS...EXCEPT AROUND 40 NEAR THE COAST.

RAIN TAPERS OFF. A FEW SNOW FLAKES ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN. IN FACT...A FEW SREF MEMBERS
OUTPUT MEASURABLE SNOW. HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR PRECIP TO
END BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE. WINDY FOR SUNDAY AS SFC LOW DEPARTS
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOOKING AT 09Z SREF AND VARIOUS 12Z
MODEL SOUNDINGS...APPEARS WE`RE SHORT OF 40 KT WIND GUST CRITERIA
FOR ADVISORY...BUT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE 27 KT SUSTAIN CRITERIA IN
PLACES...ESPECIALLY AROUND NYC.

CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING COULD GENERATE A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY...BUT HAVE
NOT INCLUDED THIS IN THE FCST AS NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANCE. DO NOTE THAT THERE ARE 3 MEMBERS IN THE 09Z SREF THAT
DO GENERATE MEASURABLE SNOW - SO IT`S SOMETHING TO MONITOR. MAX
TEMPS CLOSE TO 12Z MOS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S AND CONSISTENT
WITH THE 00Z ENSEMBLE EC/GEFS MOS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE START OF THE WEEK WITH SLOW
MODERATION OF TEMPS.

COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES EXPECTED SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY AS NEXT SHORT WAVE DIGS IN. POPS REMAIN LOW FOR THIS EVENT
AS TIMING REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN AND OVERALL PCPN APPEARS LIGHT.
12Z GEFS SUPPORTS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AS PATTERN IS BECOMING
NON-LINEAR. NOTE THAT MORE GEFS MEMBERS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF THE
FASTER/PROGRESSIVE 12Z ECMWF...THUS HAVE KEPT FRIDAY DRY WITH
COOLER/NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SERIES OF LOWS DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND INTENSIFY THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THESE WILL PRODUCE INCREASING RAIN AND N-NE WIND GUSTS OF
AROUND 20-30 KT...MAINLY OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. KSWF
WILL LIKELY HAVE LIGHTER RAIN AND WINDS...AS THEY WILL BE FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE OFFSHORE LOWS.

OUTSIDE OF SOME ISOLATED VFR AND ISOLATED IFR...MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS RAIN BECOMES MORE STEADY.
RAIN COULD BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...RESULTING IN MORE
PERIODIC IFR...ESPECIALLY EAST OF CITY TERMINALS. TAF AMENDMENTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS TIMING OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR COULD BE 1-3 HOURS
DIFFERENT THAN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 03Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST.
NORTH WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KT WITH 30-40 KT GUSTS.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT.
.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR DURING THE DAY...CONDS LOWERING TO MVFR IN -RA AT
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES AS IT
TRACKS SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS. THE WATERS REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

OCNL GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN TONIGHT AND ARE
MORE LIKELY BY LATE SAT MORNING...WITH STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED BY
LATE DAY SAT OR SAT NIGHT.

ROUGH SEAS PER 18Z WAVEWATCH SEEM QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN
EXPECTED WINDS.

GALES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. WINDS START TO DIMINISH AT NIGHT. BY MONDAY
MORNING...ALL WATERS SHOULD BE BELOW GALE FORCE GUSTS...HOWEVER SCA
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL ACROSS THE OCEAN AND EASTERN WATERS
THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL
LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO REACH ALL OF THE WATERS
WHEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE FLOW
BACKS TO WSW ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUES SUCH ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY THIS EVENING...THEN MORE OF A STEADY
LIGHT TO MODERATE ON SAT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF SAT NIGHT.

STILL EXPECT TOTAL RAINFALL TO RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH OVER ORANGE COUNTY AND INTERIOR LOCALES...TO ONE HALF TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER SE CT/E SUFFOLK COUNTY. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED DURATION OF PRECIPITATION OF 24 HOURS...NO SIGNIFICANT
HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED FROM THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A STRONG NE FLOW...A FEW LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH COASTAL
FLOODING BENCHMARKS AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
PORTIONS OF NY HARBOR /SANDY HOOK VICINITY/...THE LONG ISLAND
SOUTH SHORE BAYS...AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND WOULD BE THE MORE
SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS. PECONIC BAY MAY COME CLOSE IN SPOTS AS WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-350-353-355.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KOKX 010319
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1119 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW TRACKS TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY. WINDY AND COOL ON SUNDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE NOR`EASTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSES ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY
BREEZY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS REMAINS WELL
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. STRONG SHORTWAVE/VORT
DIVES SEWD AND ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT...LIGHT RAIN STILL BEING GENERATED VIA ISENTROPIC
LIFT JUST EAST OF A LOW LEVEL TROWAL. ECHOES ATTM HAVE BEEN
DRIFTING NW INTO SW CT...NYC METRO AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
HAVE INCREASED POP THERE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS
TROWAL IS FCST TO DRIFT WSW OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT RAIN SHIFTING
MOSTLY INTO NJ. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR LATE TONIGHT FOR
AREAS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST SINCE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
MOIST...WITH CONTINUED APPROACH OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
THE THE NOSE OF A CYCLONIC UPPER JET STREAK LATE TO PROVIDE LIFT.

LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CLOSED DEEP UPPER LOW PIVOTS EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. AT THE SURFACE...A COUPLE OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE INITIAL LOW MOVES
JUST E OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AS THE NEXT LOW FOLLOWS ABOUT 12
HOURS LATER.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE
WEST AND THESE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL RESULT
IN WINDY CONDITIONS.

NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE SATURDAY...THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...FEEL WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS WILL NOT BE MET DURING THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH EASTERN LOCATIONS COULD COME CLOSE.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR 40 KT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED SAT NIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT TOO HIGH...AND IT IS A THIRD PERIOD EVENT. WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY WIND RELATED HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

CSTL LOCATIONS WILL OBSERVE PERIODS OF RAIN...WITH PROBABILITIES
TAPERING DOWNWARD AS YOU HEAD INLAND. WITH CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN CHILLY. EXPECT TEMPS UPPER 40S TO AROUND
50.

COLD AIR ADVECTION SAT NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 30S
MANY LOCATIONS...EXCEPT AROUND 40 NEAR THE COAST.

RAIN TAPERS OFF. A FEW SNOW FLAKES ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN. IN FACT...A FEW SREF MEMBERS
OUTPUT MEASURABLE SNOW. HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR PRECIP TO
END BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE. WINDY FOR SUNDAY AS SFC LOW DEPARTS
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOOKING AT 09Z SREF AND VARIOUS 12Z
MODEL SOUNDINGS...APPEARS WE`RE SHORT OF 40 KT WIND GUST CRITERIA
FOR ADVISORY...BUT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE 27 KT SUSTAIN CRITERIA IN
PLACES...ESPECIALLY AROUND NYC.

CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING COULD GENERATE A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY...BUT HAVE
NOT INCLUDED THIS IN THE FCST AS NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANCE. DO NOTE THAT THERE ARE 3 MEMBERS IN THE 09Z SREF THAT
DO GENERATE MEASURABLE SNOW - SO IT`S SOMETHING TO MONITOR. MAX
TEMPS CLOSE TO 12Z MOS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S AND CONSISTENT
WITH THE 00Z ENSEMBLE EC/GEFS MOS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE START OF THE WEEK WITH SLOW
MODERATION OF TEMPS.

COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES EXPECTED SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY AS NEXT SHORT WAVE DIGS IN. POPS REMAIN LOW FOR THIS EVENT
AS TIMING REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN AND OVERALL PCPN APPEARS LIGHT.
12Z GEFS SUPPORTS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AS PATTERN IS BECOMING
NON-LINEAR. NOTE THAT MORE GEFS MEMBERS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF THE
FASTER/PROGRESSIVE 12Z ECMWF...THUS HAVE KEPT FRIDAY DRY WITH
COOLER/NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SERIES OF LOWS DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND INTENSIFY THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THESE WILL PRODUCE INCREASING RAIN AND N-NE WIND GUSTS OF
AROUND 20-30 KT...MAINLY OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. KSWF
WILL LIKELY HAVE LIGHTER RAIN AND WINDS...AS THEY WILL BE FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE OFFSHORE LOWS.

OUTSIDE OF SOME ISOLATED VFR AND ISOLATED IFR...MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS RAIN BECOMES MORE STEADY.
RAIN COULD BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...RESULTING IN MORE
PERIODIC IFR...ESPECIALLY EAST OF CITY TERMINALS. TAF AMENDMENTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS TIMING OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR COULD BE 1-3 HOURS
DIFFERENT THAN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 03Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST.
NORTH WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KT WITH 30-40 KT GUSTS.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT.
.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR DURING THE DAY...CONDS LOWERING TO MVFR IN -RA AT
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES AS IT
TRACKS SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS. THE WATERS REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

OCNL GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN TONIGHT AND ARE
MORE LIKELY BY LATE SAT MORNING...WITH STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED BY
LATE DAY SAT OR SAT NIGHT.

ROUGH SEAS PER 18Z WAVEWATCH SEEM QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN
EXPECTED WINDS.

GALES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. WINDS START TO DIMINISH AT NIGHT. BY MONDAY
MORNING...ALL WATERS SHOULD BE BELOW GALE FORCE GUSTS...HOWEVER SCA
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL ACROSS THE OCEAN AND EASTERN WATERS
THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL
LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO REACH ALL OF THE WATERS
WHEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE FLOW
BACKS TO WSW ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUES SUCH ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY THIS EVENING...THEN MORE OF A STEADY
LIGHT TO MODERATE ON SAT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF SAT NIGHT.

STILL EXPECT TOTAL RAINFALL TO RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH OVER ORANGE COUNTY AND INTERIOR LOCALES...TO ONE HALF TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER SE CT/E SUFFOLK COUNTY. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED DURATION OF PRECIPITATION OF 24 HOURS...NO SIGNIFICANT
HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED FROM THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A STRONG NE FLOW...A FEW LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH COASTAL
FLOODING BENCHMARKS AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
PORTIONS OF NY HARBOR /SANDY HOOK VICINITY/...THE LONG ISLAND
SOUTH SHORE BAYS...AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND WOULD BE THE MORE
SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS. PECONIC BAY MAY COME CLOSE IN SPOTS AS WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-350-353-355.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KBUF 010232
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1032 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DECAYING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL REDEVELOP OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...THEN WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT OCCASIONAL
LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CHILLY TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AS
THE LOW BRIEFLY PULLS MUCH COLDER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH A
WARMING TREND THEN FOLLOWING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 0230Z...REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF THE
ORIGINAL PRIMARY LOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...WITH A
SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST IN
RESPONSE TO DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
MEANWHILE...REGIONAL RADARS STILL SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATIFORM
LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE ORIGINAL PRIMARY LOW EXTENDING
ACROSS AREAS FROM THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES WESTWARD...WITH SOME
DECENT LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF THIS RAIN ALSO NOTED OVER WESTERN LAKE
ONTARIO GIVEN THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THAT LAKE.
MEANWHILE...AREAS FURTHER TO THE EAST REMAIN LARGELY DRY AS OF
THIS WRITING.

THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...EXPECT THE REMAINS OF THE
ORIGINAL PRIMARY LOW TO CONTINUE TO DECAY AS ITS ENERGY TRANSFERS TO
THE SECONDARY COASTAL SYSTEM. THIS STATED...WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOULD STILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF SATURDAY WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND A LINGERING CYCLONIC/INCREASINGLY UPSLOPE
FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION. FURTHER TO THE EAST...
EXPECT JUST A CHANCE OF SOME SPOTTIER LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...DEVELOPING COLD AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM WILL SEND A PROGRESSIVELY
COLDER AIRMASS SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN READINGS FALLING TO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S
TONIGHT...WITH ONLY VERY LIMITED RECOVERY THEN EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
WHEN ALSO TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY SATURDAY EVENING THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH OF -7C TO -8C WILL BE
CROSSING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BASIN AND NEW YORK STATE. WHILE
THIS IS SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO PRODUCE A LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE...THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS ARE DRYING SO LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LIMITED. A NORTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WIND WILL PROVIDE OROGRAPHIC
LIFT DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...SO WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY
POPS EARLY IN THE EVENING...DWINDLING TO CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE POPS
LATER IN THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS DRYING AND WARMING ALOFT LOWER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE EFFECT. LOW TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ALONG AND WEST OF THE GENESEE
VALLEY...THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES TO
THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE AND THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...BRINGING FAIR
WEATHER AND GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES. CLOUDS SHOULD LAST MUCH OF THE
DAY ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS WITH COOL AIR ALOFT RESULTING IN LAKE
ENHANCED STRATUS. SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR THE LAKES AND IN WESTERN SECTIONS. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL CHILLY...ONLY BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
ALONG THE GENESEE VALLEY...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE LAKE ERIE
SHORE AND THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES REGION.

THE AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ON THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY...MOVING EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING
WARMING TO THE AREA WITH HIGH TEMPS 40S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THE
LOW 50S ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD STAY
ABOVE FREEZING WITH MOST LOCATIONS FALLING TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
30S INLAND AND THE LOWER TO MID 40S ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH A SURFACE AND UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE UPPER PLAINS
AND PRAIRIE PROVINCES TO SOUTHWESTERN HUDSON BAY...AN OCCLUSION
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW TO A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD
NEW YORK STATE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING A SHEARING
OF THE FRONT DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...AND ALTHOUGH POPS ARE IN THE
LIKELY RANGE...QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW...ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH.

GFS AND ECMWF SHOW GREATEST DIFFERENCES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. BY 00Z FRIDAY...GFS DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN QUEBEC TO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FOR THE SAME TIMEFRAME...ECMWF HAS DEVELOPED A NEGATIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH FROM JUST EAST OF JAME BAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BOTH
MODEL SOLUTIONS PROVIDE CHANCE POPS WED THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH THE
HIGHER POPS DURING THE DAY THU. GFS BRINGS IN A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHEREAS ECMWF BRINGS THE COLDER AIR IN ACROSS
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. WILL SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE AND HAVE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH THE CHANCE OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

AFTER A WARMING TREND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THE SECOND
HALF WILL EXPERIENCE A DOWNWARD TREND...FROM HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S ON WEDNESDAY TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY
REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
A MOIST CYCLONIC AND INCREASINGLY UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW LINGERING
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THOUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF
SATURDAY...WHILE THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS CLOUDY WITH MUCH
SPOTTIER LIGHT RAIN.

IN TERMS OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS...EXPECT GENERAL MVFR TO LOW-END VFR
CEILINGS TO DETERIORATE TO IFR/MVFR OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
BACKS TO NORTHWESTERLY/NORTHERLY AND BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY MORE
UPSLOPE IN NATURE...WITH GENERAL IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS /MAINLY DUE TO
CEILINGS/ THEN LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY. WHILE THE BEST OVERALL
CHANCES FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...CANNOT TOTALLY RULE THESE OUT AT
KBUF/KIAG/KROC EITHER DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSLOPE FLOW.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR/VFR WITH DIMINISHING LEFTOVER RAIN AND WET
SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR WITH SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND
FLURRIES.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING A PERIOD OF BRISK NORTHEASTERLY AND THEN
NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE LOWER LAKES REGION THAT WILL RESULT IN
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS. ON LAKE ONTARIO...THE
STRONGER WINDS ARE DEVELOPING NOW AND WILL LAST THROUGH SUNDAY...
WHILE ON LAKE ERIE THE STRONGER WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND
LAST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. DUE TO ALL THIS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT AS OUTLINED BELOW.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY
         FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...CHURCH/JJR
MARINE...JJR








000
FXUS61 KALY 010227
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1027 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT...WILL
PHASE WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WELL EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN
SHOWERS FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...TURNING TO SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. COLD...WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. AFTER A COLD START...MONDAY
SHOULD BE FAIR WITH MODERATING CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1027 PM...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA. BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN HAVE BEEN MOVING FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. PRECIPITATION TOTALS HAVE RANGED FROM A
TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. A LITTLE LIGHT DRIZZLE EVEN
NOTED HERE AT NWS OFFICE. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THIS AREA
FOR NEXT FEW HOURS AND EXPANDED POPS INTO MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
CATSKILLS OVER NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER
30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO GRIDDED DATABASE FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS...
TRICKY CALL ON OVERALL SKY COVER CONDITIONS TONIGHT...ESP THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT THE LOWER CLOUDS HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT
TIME EXPANDING WESTWARD...MOST LIKELY DUE TO SOME DOWNSLOPING FROM
THE GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. AND THE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SHIFTED A BIT
FARTHER EAST...MAINLY INTO NEW ENGLAND. WE EXPECT LOWER
CLOUDS...FROM MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND AND
LI...TO EXPAND N AND W...INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT AND SE
CATSKILLS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND THEN POSSIBLY FURTHER
N AND W LATER TONIGHT.

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY RIDING NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN VA...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVANCING NORTH AND WEST
FROM SE NEW ENGLAND AND LI...SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING LATER
THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW CT...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND
SE CATSKILLS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS FURTHER N
AND W CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN...AND SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATER TONIGHT.

MIN TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SKY COVER...WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY
DROPPING RAPIDLY THIS EVENING WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
LINGER...BEFORE THICKER CLOUDS DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. HAVE GENERALLY
WENT WITH OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MAV/MET MOS BLEND FOR MIN
TEMPS...WHICH MAY OCCUR AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN SOME
AREAS...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SAT-SAT NT...DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE INSISTING ON MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM
REMAINING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...STILL ADMITTEDLY NOT
OVERLY CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST SOME BANDS OF PRECIP APPROACH AND
POSSIBLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF AT LEAST SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA LATE
SAT AFTN INTO SUN AM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS 4 DISTINCT
SHORTWAVES...WITH THE MAIN FEATURE CURRENTLY TRANSLATING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING IMPULSE RACING SE
INTO NW ONTARIO. IT IS THIS LAST FEATURE...IN NW ONTARIO...THAT HAS
SOME POTENTIAL TO PULL THINGS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST THAN CURRENT
MODELS INDICATE. AT THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING SATURDAY...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THEN...AS THE LOW RAPIDLY
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE WITH SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...CURRENT PROJECTIONS
INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE STEADIER PRECIP REMAINS CONFINED CLOSER
TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A LOW
PROBABILITY THAT A BAND OF STEADIER PRECIP ADVANCES NORTHWEST OR
WEST AROUND THE THE DEVELOPING LOW...ESP LATE SAT NT OR EARLY
SUNDAY. SO...WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WELL INTO
SAT NT...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE
TO VERY CLOSELY MONITOR RADAR TRENDS...AND ALSO NEAR TERM FORECAST
GUIDANCE FROM THE RAP/HRRR...WHICH MAY GIVE SOME NEAR- TO SHORT-
TERM HINTS THAT PRECIP MAY BE TRENDING FARTHER N AND W. THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN IN VALLEYS THROUGH SAT...WITH SOME
SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY...ESP
ELEVATIONS GREATER THAN 1500 FT. THEN...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
DYNAMICAL COOLING CAN OCCUR...RAIN AND OR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS ALL ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT SAT
EVENING...AND PERHAPS EVEN IN VALLEY AREAS LATER SAT NT. CURRENT
GRIDDED DATABASE INCLUDES SOME MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF UP TO AN
INCH ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND
ALSO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...BY SUNRISE SUNDAY.
ALSO...UP TO ONE HALF INCH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AGAIN...THERE REMAINS A SMALL PROBABILITY
THAT GREATER AMTS COULD OCCUR...AT LEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LITCHFIELD CO IF
THE PRECIP TRENDS FARTHER WEST.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN VALLEYS FOR
SAT...THEN FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR SAT NT IN VALLEYS...WITH
POSSIBLY SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SAT AFTN INTO SAT NT...AND MAY GUST TO 25-30 MPH...ESP IN
SOME N/S ORIENTED VALLEYS.

SUN-MON...AFTER ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF SUN AM...WITH
CLEARING BY AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE WINDY AND COLD SUNDAY...WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN VALLEYS...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR
HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS MAY STILL GUST TO 35-45 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND THE TACONICS...AND
POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS...AND
25-35 MPH ELSEWHERE. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 40S IN
VALLEYS...EXCEPT POSSIBLY 45-50 IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH MAINLY 30S TO NEAR 40 FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLEAR
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS LATE SUN NT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH
THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE FALL SEASON...GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH
SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAX TEMPS ON MON
SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID
40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SUN NT-MON SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
CLEAR...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY CLOUDS COULD PASS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CATSKILLS LATE SUN NT/EARLY MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO START THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER FOR MON NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MIN TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE CHILLY FOR MON NIGHT WITH
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...BUT LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME RAIN SHOWERS
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...WITH MAINLY 40S ACROSS THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO BE
IN THE 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...COOLER AIR WILL POUR INTO
THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES TURNING COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW AT THE HUDSON
VALLEY TAF SITES. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A CEILING BETWEEN 3000
FEET AND 5000 FEET. VFR BECOMING MVFR IS EXPECTED AT KPSF AS THE
CEILING LOWERS TO AROUND 15OO FT MSL LATER SATURDAY. AFTER
02Z...SOME SHOWERS COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH THE KPOU AREA AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALL TAF SITES HAVE
A THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD EXCEPT AT KPSF WHERE THEY ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MVFR
LATER SATURDAY.

WINDS FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AT LESS
THAN 10 KT...THEN WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15KT FROM THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31.0  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...TURNING
TO SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS
OF THE SEASON OVER US BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/KL
NEAR TERM...SND/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL








000
FXUS61 KBTV 010215
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1015 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
TRANSLATE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST LATE
TONIGHT. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD LATE SATURDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE AND CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL SEE JUST SOME FRINGE EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM...AMOUNTING TO SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL CREATE GUSTY
NORTH WINDS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER
RETURNS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST GENERALLY HOLDING UP WELL. I
DID RAISE MINS UP BY A DEGREE OR SO BASED ON CURRENT TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND ON THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. LOW-LEVELS STILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR ANY APPRECIABLE
PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...SO
GOING DRY FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS LOOKS GOOD. STARTING TO SEE
SOME LIGHT PRECIP SLOWLY SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO INTERIOR MA.
DEWPOINTS IN SOUTHERN VT ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE MID/UPPER 30S
AND MORE CONDUCIVE TO LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT NOT OCCURRING UNTIL THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS. THIS IS ALREADY REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SOUTHEAST VT. ASIDE FROM POPULATING WITH
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA...NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY MORNING
WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NEWD TO NEAR OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N
70W BENCHMARK BY LATE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE
OVERCAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT OTHERWISE WE/LL ONLY
EXPERIENCE FRINGE PRECIPITATION AFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH JUST SOME LIGHT RAIN/HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AFFECTING THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS
VERMONT...AND MOSTLY NOT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. POPS RANGE
FROM 30-40 PERCENT AND ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SHOULD ONLY BE
A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL (OR A DUSTING OF SNOW AT
THE SUMMITS) THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND 32-34F AT
THE SUMMITS ABOVE 3000 FEET.

THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NEWD THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH AN INCREASING NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED NORTH
WINDS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE NORTH WINDS OF 10-15 MPH THRU THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AROUND DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH OR
SO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION MOST OVER
LOCATIONS. IF LOW TRACK IS A BIT FURTHER WEST (SIMILAR TO 12Z
GFS)...A DUSTING TO 1" IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN VT VALLEYS DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIFORM GIVEN
CLOUDY/WINDY ENVIRONMENT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

BRISK NORTH WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH DEVELOPMENT OF
PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. COMBINED WITH MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH MUCH OF THE
DAY...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH POSSIBLE. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS NERN VT AS SURFACE LOW DEPARTS NEWD
ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY AND
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOOKING FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT FRIDAY...12Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO BE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH 00Z RUNS AND AMONG THE GFS/EURO MEMBERS --
AT LEAST THRU WEDNESDAY. DEVIATIONS GET LARGER FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVERALL THE FORECAST HASN`T CHANGED MUCH. LOOKS PRETTY
QUIET MONDAY & TUESDAY AND THEN GETTING UNSETTLED FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. DAILY SPECIFICS BELOW...

MONDAY:
THE WEEKEND STORM WILL BE FAR TO THE EAST, WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOWLY RELAXING AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST, BUT STILL ENOUGH TO MAKE
FOR A SEMI-BREEZY DAY -- PERHAPS SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20MPH.
GUIDANCE ALL SIMILAR, SO A BLEND LOOKS THE BEST WAY TO GO. SHOULD
BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS AND EVEN LESS IN THE WAY OF ANY
THREAT OF RAIN/SNOW (SO 0% POP IS GOOD). 925MB TEMPERATURES START
OFF CHILLY (-5C OR SO) BUT SLOWLY WARM TOWARD -1C BY THE
AFTERNOON. WHAT THAT MEANS AT THE SURFACE ARE TEMPERATURES ONLY IN
THE LOW 40S (UPPER 30S HIGHER ELEVATIONS).

MONDAY NIGHT:
FLOW STARTS TO TURN SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER AND
EAST OF HERE. AS WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST, WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME
MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION START TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE TRICKY
PART. THINK COLDEST READINGS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM
WITH LOW/MID 20S EXPECTED WITH MORE TIME WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER, IF THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE CLOUDS IS A FEW HOURS
DIFFERENT, IT COULD MEAN LOWS COULD BE COLDER OR WARMER. BOTTOM
LINE, WENT A BIT ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE, BUT THINGS ARE
UNCERTAIN.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT:
WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. 925MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 8C BY
LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
UNDER PERFECT CONDITIONS, BUT CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME RAIN SHOWERS
WILL KEEP THAT FROM HAPPENING. 50S (THOUGH A BIT ABOVE NORMAL)
WILL DO IT. DURING THE DAY A FRONT SLOWLY SAGS TOWARD THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST, HOWEVER THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MEANS THAT
ULTIMATELY THE FRONT WILL PULL UP STATIONARY AND START TO
DISSIPATE IN PLACE. SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. SO LOW CHANCES IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE
DAY, BUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH SO
CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF
BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS BEING ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTION WITH
POPS AROUND 60% THERE BUT TRENDING DOWN TO <30% IN SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS OF VERMONT. GOOD SUPPORT FOR THE MODELS FOR THIS SORT OF
ORIENTATION OF RAIN CHANCES THANKS TO A STALLED FRONT JUST
NORTH/WEST OF HERE. CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING MUCH. LOTS OF 40S AND A FEW UPPER 30S.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY:
LOOKS LIKE A SOMEWHAT DREARY COUPLE OF DAYS. SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH
EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVES IS IN PLACE. WITH THE STALLED FRONT,
WE`LL SEE SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN BREAK OUT AS THE WEAK
DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WON`T VARY MUCH. STUCK
WITH A MODEL BLEND, BUT EVEN THAT MAY BE TOO WARM DURING THE DAY
AND TOO COOL AT NIGHT. BASICALLY LOW 50S IN THE DAY, 40S AT NIGHT.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY:
MODELS DIVERGE MORE BY THIS POINT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SAY WE
WILL HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFY SOME AND CAUSE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS. DIFFERENCES ARE WITH WHERE THIS ALL HAPPENS. GFS IS
FARTHER WEST WITH TROUGH AND CYCLOGENESIS AND SLOWER WITH THE
PATTERN EVOLUTION. IT WOULD KEEP US IN A WARMER ENVIRONMENT WITH
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT TRANSITIONING TO SNOW
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH PASSES BY AND COLDER AIR
COMES IN. 12Z ECMWF HAS ALL OF THIS HAPPENING QUICKLY THURSDAY
NIGHT SUCH THAT COLDER AIR IS MOVING IN BY FRIDAY MORNING
RESULTING IN A MORE CHANCE OF WHITE STUFF, EVEN AT LOW ELEVATIONS.
AS A COMPARISON, GFS HAS 850MB TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 0C AS OF 12Z
FRIDAY -- MEANWHILE THE ECMWF IS ALREADY DOWN TO -8 TO -10C AT
THAT SAME TIME.

THIS FAR OUT, JUST STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND WHICH RESULTS IN SOME
LIGHT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE ROUGHLY 2000FT AND RAIN SHOWERS
BELOW THAT AS HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE ONLY IN THE 40S.

I`M SURE THIS FORECAST WILL CHANGE SEVERAL MORE TIMES BETWEEN NOW
AND THEN. THAT`S JUST THE WAY THINGS WORK....

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CEILINGS EXIST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND
WILL DO SO THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...THEN CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY AFTER 16Z...BUT NO OBSTRUCTION TO VISIBILITY IS
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE UNDER 10 KNOTS TONIGHT...THEN
INCREASE FROM THE NORTH INTO THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE AFTER 12Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
00Z SUN-00Z MON: VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR WITH A FEW
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AROUND. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GUSTING
IN THE 25-35KT RANGE ON SUNDAY.

00Z MON-12Z TUE: VFR

12Z TUE ONWARD: MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND LOWER CEILINGS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE KCXX-88D DOPPLER RADAR IN
COLCHESTER VERMONT IS OUT OF SERVICE AT THIS TIME. ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIANS HAVE CHECKED THE RADAR AND FOUND A PROBLEM WITH HIGH
VOLTAGE ARCING. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS ARE AT THE RADAR SITE THIS
MORNING ATTEMPTING REPAIRS. OWING TO THE COMPLEX NATURE OF THE
PROBLEM...IT APPEARS THE EARLIEST RETURN TO SERVICE WILL BE
SOMETIME ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBGM 010152
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
952 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR VICINITY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS. AS COLDER AIR
DESCENDS UPON THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES FOR SOME PARTS OF THE AREA WHILE DIMINISHING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
945 PM UPDATE...NO CHG TO CRNT FCST OTHER THAN MINOR NEAR TERM
TWEEKS. --SHRA REMAIN CONFINED TO WRN ZONES...ALTHO SOME -SHRA
MAY WORK INTO THE POCONOS AND SRN CATSKILLS LATE TNGT. OTRW...WEAK
FORCING OVRNGT WITH NOT ALOT GOING ON. PREV BLO...

645 PM UPDATE...
FCST IN FINE SHAPE. ONLY TWEEK WAS TO LOWER POPS
JUST A BIT IN THE NEAR TERM ACRS THE CNTRL SRN TIER AND WRN FINGER
LAKES WHERE -SHRA ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME SPREADING EWD. PREV
BLO...

4 PM UPDATE...
STILL A STRIPE OF SUNSHINE FROM SCRANTON THROUGH DELHI FOR A TIME
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT REMAINDER OF AREA HAS INCREASING CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER LEVELS. IT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
INTO THIS EVENING. ACTUAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUITE SPOTTY
HOWEVER.

VERY SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS NOW DIGGING THROUGH WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...EN ROUTE TO CUTTING OFF UPPER LOW WHILE CROSSING SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...AND AT THE NC-SC COASTLINE BY 18Z SATURDAY.
500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE EXTREMELY ANOMALOUS...5 TO 6 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL IN THE CAROLINAS...YET ALSO FAR ENOUGH
REMOVED FROM OUR REGION TO HAVE ONLY PERIPHERAL IMPACT. WE WILL STILL
GET THE UPPER TROUGH AND GRADUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
CLOUDS...BUT LACK OF DYNAMICS ALOFT AND FOCUSING FEATURES NEAR THE
SURFACE WILL MAKE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY LIGHT AND
SPOTTY...WITH AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL ENHANCEMENT IN THE
POCONOS-WYOMING VALLEY AREAS DUE TO BRIEF EASTERLY JET AS LOW
DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT.

FOR TONIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF DIGGING TROUGH/CUTTING OFF
LOW WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN PA/NY...KEEPING SOME LIGHT SHOWER
CHANCES MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER TO WESTERN-CENTRAL
FINGER LAKES THIS EVENING. THEN OVERNIGHT...MINOR FRONTOGENESIS-
CONVERGENCE IN THE MID LEVELS OVER OUR REGION AS CYCLOGENESIS
ENSUES AT THE SURFACE WELL OFFSHORE THE MIDATLANTIC COAST. IN
EFFECT...A 700MB PSEUDO-FRONT WILL LOSE DEFINITION OVER OUR
AREA AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY.
A BETTER LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN WYOMING VALLEY TO POCONOS DURING BRIEF
JUXTAPOSITION OF TRANSITORY EASTERLY JET /ATLANTIC MOISTURE
CONTRIBUTION/ AND MID LEVEL LIFT 09Z-12Z SAT.

WITH EXCEPTION OF WYOMING VALLEY-POCONOS...OVERALL THOUGH LACK OF
JET SUPPORT...AND THE DIMINISHING TO EVENTUALLY ELIMINATION OF
ISENTROPIC UPLIFT...WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION
RATHER SPOTTY ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. COLD
AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS SATURDAY WILL ALSO BE
QUITE MINOR...AND NOT YET ENOUGH TO GENERATE LAKE RESPONSE.
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN NOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPEAR COLD ENOUGH
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR SNOW TO MIX IN EXCEPT PERHAPS HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN CATSKILLS /AND EVEN THAT IS IFFY-
SPOTTY/.

LOWS TONIGHT MID 30S TO NEAR 40...THEN TEMPERATURES NOT MOVING MUCH
ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
350 PM UPDATE...
DUE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL VERY GRADUALLY BACK NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHILE BEING PRETTY BRISK DUE TO THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEEP NOVA SCOTIA-BOUND LOW...AND THE
OHIO VALLEY HIGH. THIS WILL MEAN A VERY LIMITED FETCH FOR GREAT
LAKES MOISTURE...DESPITE COLD ENOUGH 850MB TEMPERATURES FOR A LAKE
RESPONSE /WELL BELOW ZERO CELSIUS/. THAT ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR
MASS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...DEWPOINTS CRASHING THROUGH THE
20S SUNDAY...WILL MEAN ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
AT BEST. BEFORE THAT...STILL SOME SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WHICH WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WHILE DIMINISHING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WHERE THEY OCCUR WILL BE MEAGER AND MAINLY LIMITED TO HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION AS WELL AS THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS.

CYCLONIC PRESSURE GRADIENT SUNDAY WILL PUSH GUSTS INTO 25-35 MPH
RANGE...WHICH ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S WILL FEEL QUITE COLD. DRYNESS OF AIR MASS WILL ALSO ALLOW
CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY FOR A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. LOWS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES MONDAY /UPPER 40S-LOW 50S/ DUE TO
WARM AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
WILL PROVIDE MILDER TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT SWINGING OUT OF ONTARIO AND THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

AFTER THE MILD START, TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATED AT 8 PM... SHOWERS OVER ELM AND POINTS WEST WILL SLOWLY
WORK EAST TOWARD ITH BGM SYR AND ITH OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE
MAINLY VFR UNDER THESE SHOWERS BUT CIGS COULD FALL AS LOW AS 2-3
KFT IN HEAVIER SHOWERS RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER ON SATURDAY BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL
BE DRY WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 3 TO 5 KFT.

WINDS WILL BE EAST-NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT BECOMING
NORTH AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS BY LATE SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT...OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN-TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP/MSE







000
FXUS61 KOKX 010038
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
838 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW TRACKS TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY. WINDY AND COOL ON SUNDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE NOR`EASTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSES ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY
BREEZY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS REMAINS WELL
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. STRONG SHORTWAVE/VORT
DIVES SEWD AND ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE.

FOR THIS EVENING...INTERACTION BETWEEN REAR QUAD OF ANTICYCLONIC
UPPER JET LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST...APPROACHING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...AND WEAK SFC TROUGH/H8 TROWAL...IS PRODUCING LIGHT
RAIN OVER SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND. LATEST GUIDANCE IN FULL
AGREEMENT ON THE SFC TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL TROWAL MOVING WWD IN
TANDEM TOWARD THE NJ COAST TONIGHT...SO EXPECT AREA OF RAIN TO
DRIFT SW-WARD WITH IT OVERNIGHT...IMPACTING MAINLY NYC METRO AND
WESTERN LONG ISLAND. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR LATE TONIGHT FOR
AREAS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST SINCE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
MOIST...WITH CONTINUED APPROACH OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
THE THE NOSE OF A CYCLONIC UPPER JET STREAK LATE TO PROVIDE LIFT.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 30S
INLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MID 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CLOSED DEEP UPPER LOW PIVOTS EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. AT THE SURFACE...A COUPLE OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE INITIAL LOW MOVES
JUST E OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AS THE NEXT LOW FOLLOWS ABOUT 12
HOURS LATER.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE
WEST AND THESE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL RESULT
IN WINDY CONDITIONS.

NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE SATURDAY...THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...FEEL WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS WILL NOT BE MET DURING THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH EASTERN LOCATIONS COULD COME CLOSE.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR 40 KT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED SAT NIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT TOO HIGH...AND IT IS A THIRD PERIOD EVENT. WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY WIND RELATED HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

CSTL LOCATIONS WILL OBSERVE PERIODS OF RAIN...WITH PROBABILITIES
TAPERING DOWNWARD AS YOU HEAD INLAND. WITH CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN CHILLY. EXPECT TEMPS UPPER 40S TO AROUND
50.

COLD AIR ADVECTION SAT NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 30S
MANY LOCATIONS...EXCEPT AROUND 40 NEAR THE COAST.

RAIN TAPERS OFF. A FEW SNOW FLAKES ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN. IN FACT...A FEW SREF MEMBERS
OUTPUT MEASURABLE SNOW. HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR PRECIP TO
END BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE. WINDY FOR SUNDAY AS SFC LOW DEPARTS
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOOKING AT 09Z SREF AND VARIOUS 12Z
MODEL SOUNDINGS...APPEARS WE`RE SHORT OF 40 KT WIND GUST CRITERIA
FOR ADVISORY...BUT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE 27 KT SUSTAIN CRITERIA IN
PLACES...ESPECIALLY AROUND NYC.

CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING COULD GENERATE A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY...BUT HAVE
NOT INCLUDED THIS IN THE FCST AS NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANCE. DO NOTE THAT THERE ARE 3 MEMBERS IN THE 09Z SREF THAT
DO GENERATE MEASURABLE SNOW - SO IT`S SOMETHING TO MONITOR. MAX
TEMPS CLOSE TO 12Z MOS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S AND CONSISTENT
WITH THE 00Z ENSEMBLE EC/GEFS MOS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE START OF THE WEEK WITH SLOW
MODERATION OF TEMPS.

COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES EXPECTED SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY AS NEXT SHORT WAVE DIGS IN. POPS REMAIN LOW FOR THIS EVENT
AS TIMING REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN AND OVERALL PCPN APPEARS LIGHT.
12Z GEFS SUPPORTS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AS PATTERN IS BECOMING
NON-LINEAR. NOTE THAT MORE GEFS MEMBERS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF THE
FASTER/PROGRESSIVE 12Z ECMWF...THUS HAVE KEPT FRIDAY DRY WITH
COOLER/NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SERIES OF LOWS OFFSHORE AND INTENSIFYING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WILL PRODUCE INCREASING RAIN AND GUSTY N-NE WINDS OF 20-30
KT...MAINLY OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. KSWF WILL LIKELY
HAVE LIGHTER RAIN AND WINDS...AS THEY WILL BE FARTHER AWAY FROM
THE OFFSHORE LOWS.

INITIALLY VFR...BUT MVFR WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
RAIN BECOMES MORE STEADY. RAIN COULD BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT
TIMES...RESULTING IN PERIODIC IFR...ESPECIALLY EAST OF CITY
TERMINALS. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF
IFR...EXCLUDED FROM TAFS FOR TIME BEING.

  ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE TO REFINE TIMING OF RAIN
AND MVFR WHICH COULD VARY 1-3 HOURS FROM FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE TO REFINE TIMING OF RAIN
AND MVFR WHICH COULD VARY 1-3 HOURS FROM FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE TO REFINE TIMING OF RAIN
AND MVFR WHICH COULD VARY 1-3 HOURS FROM FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE TO REFINE TIMING OF RAIN
AND MVFR WHICH COULD VARY 1-3 HOURS FROM FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE TO REFINE TIMING OF RAIN
AND MVFR WHICH COULD VARY 1-3 HOURS FROM FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE TO REFINE TIMING OF RAIN
AND MVFR WHICH COULD VARY 1-3 HOURS FROM FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST. NORTH
WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KT WITH 30-40 KT GUSTS.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT.
.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR DURING THE DAY...CONDS LOWERING TO MVFR IN -RA AT
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES AS IT
TRACKS SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS. THE WATERS REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

OCNL GALE FORCE GUST ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN TONIGHT...AND ARE
LIKELY SAT MORNING...WITH STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED BY LATE DAY SAT
OR SAT NIGHT.

ROUGH SEAS PER 18Z WAVEWATCH SEEM QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN
EXPECTED WINDS.

GALES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. WINDS START TO DIMINISH AT NIGHT. BY MONDAY
MORNING...ALL WATERS SHOULD BE BELOW GALE FORCE GUSTS...HOWEVER SCA
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL ACROSS THE OCEAN AND EASTERN WATERS
THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL
LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO REACH ALL OF THE WATERS
WHEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE FLOW
BACKS TO WSW ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUES SUCH ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY THIS EVENING...THEN MORE OF A STEADY
LIGHT TO MODERATE ON SAT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF SAT NIGHT.

STILL EXPECT TOTAL RAINFALL TO RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH OVER ORANGE COUNTY AND INTERIOR LOCALES...TO ONE HALF TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER SE CT/E SUFFOLK COUNTY. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED DURATION OF PRECIPITATION OF 24 HOURS...NO SIGNIFICANT
HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED FROM THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A STRONG NE FLOW...A FEW LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH COASTAL
FLOODING BENCHMARKS AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
PORTIONS OF NY HARBOR /SANDY HOOK VICINITY/...THE LONG ISLAND
SOUTH SHORE BAYS...AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND WOULD BE THE MORE
SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS. PECONIC BAY MAY COME CLOSE IN SPOTS AS WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-350-353-355.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PW/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...TONGUE
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...PW/TONGUE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW






000
FXUS61 KBUF 010033
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
833 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...THEN WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT OCCASIONAL LIGHT
RAIN TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CHILLY TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AS
THE LOW BRIEFLY PULLS MUCH COLDER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH A
WARMING TREND THEN FOLLOWING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 0030Z...REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE
ORIGINAL AND NOW WEAKENING PRIMARY LOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...
WITH A SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST IN
RESPONSE TO DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
MEANWHILE...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATIFORM LIGHT
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE ORIGINAL PRIMARY LOW EXTENDING ACROSS AREAS
FROM THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES WESTWARD...WHILE AREAS FURTHER EAST
REMAIN LARGELY DRY AS OF THIS WRITING.

THROUGH THE BALANCE OF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...EXPECT CONTINUED
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE PRIMARY LOW AS ITS ENERGY TRANSFERS TO THE
SECONDARY COASTAL SYSTEM. THIS STATED...WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT AND MUCH IF NOT ALL OF SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND A LINGERING CYCLONIC/INCREASINGLY UPSLOPE FLOW
REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION. FURTHER TO THE EAST...EXPECT
JUST A CHANCE OF SOME SPOTTIER LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...DEVELOPING COLD AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM WILL SEND A PROGRESSIVELY
COLDER AIRMASS SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN READINGS FALLING TO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S
TONIGHT...WITH ONLY VERY LIMITED RECOVERY THEN EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
WHEN ALSO TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY SATURDAY EVENING THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH OF -7C TO -8C WILL BE
CROSSING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BASIN AND NEW YORK STATE. WHILE
THIS IS SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO PRODUCE A LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE...THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS ARE DRYING SO LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LIMITED. A NORTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WIND WILL PROVIDE OROGRAPHIC
LIFT DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...SO WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY
POPS EARLY IN THE EVENING...DWINDLING TO CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE POPS
LATER IN THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS DRYING AND WARMING ALOFT LOWER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE EFFECT. LOW TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ALONG AND WEST OF THE GENESEE
VALLEY...THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES TO
THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE AND THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...BRINGING FAIR
WEATHER AND GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES. CLOUDS SHOULD LAST MUCH OF THE
DAY ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS WITH COOL AIR ALOFT RESULTING IN LAKE
ENHANCED STRATUS. SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR THE LAKES AND IN WESTERN SECTIONS. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL CHILLY...ONLY BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
ALONG THE GENESEE VALLEY...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE LAKE ERIE
SHORE AND THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES REGION.

THE AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ON THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY...MOVING EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING
WARMING TO THE AREA WITH HIGH TEMPS 40S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THE
LOW 50S ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD STAY
ABOVE FREEZING WITH MOST LOCATIONS FALLING TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
30S INLAND AND THE LOWER TO MID 40S ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH A SURFACE AND UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE UPPER PLAINS
AND PRAIRIE PROVINCES TO SOUTHWESTERN HUDSON BAY...AN OCCLUSION
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW TO A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD
NEW YORK STATE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING A SHEARING
OF THE FRONT DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...AND ALTHOUGH POPS ARE IN THE
LIKELY RANGE...QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW...ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH.

GFS AND ECMWF SHOW GREATEST DIFFERENCES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. BY 00Z FRIDAY...GFS DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN QUEBEC TO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FOR THE SAME TIMEFRAME...ECMWF HAS DEVELOPED A NEGATIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH FROM JUST EAST OF JAME BAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BOTH
MODEL SOLUTIONS PROVIDE CHANCE POPS WED THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH THE
HIGHER POPS DURING THE DAY THU. GFS BRINGS IN A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHEREAS ECMWF BRINGS THE COLDER AIR IN ACROSS
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. WILL SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE AND HAVE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH THE CHANCE OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

AFTER A WARMING TREND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THE SECOND
HALF WILL EXPERIENCE A DOWNWARD TREND...FROM HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S ON WEDNESDAY TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY REDEVELOP OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH A MOIST CYCLONIC
AND INCREASINGLY UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW LINGERING ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN ACROSS AREAS SOUTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO THOUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF SATURDAY...WHILE THE NORTH
COUNTRY REMAINS CLOUDY WITH MUCH SPOTTIER LIGHT RAIN.

IN TERMS OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS...EXPECT GENERAL MVFR TO LOW-END VFR
CEILINGS TO DETERIORATE TO IFR/MVFR TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
BACKS TO NORTHWESTERLY/NORTHERLY AND BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY MORE
UPSLOPE IN NATURE...WITH GENERAL IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS /MAINLY DUE TO
CEILINGS/ THEN LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY. WHILE THE BEST OVERALL
CHANCES FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...CANNOT TOTALLY RULE THESE OUT AT
KBUF/KIAG/KROC EITHER DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSLOPE FLOW.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR/VFR WITH DIMINISHING LEFTOVER RAIN AND WET
SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR WITH SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND
FLURRIES.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING A PERIOD OF BRISK NORTHEASTERLY AND THEN
NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE LOWER LAKES REGION AND RESULTING IN FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS. ON LAKE ONTARIO...THE STRONGER
WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND LAST THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE ON
LAKE ERIE THE STRONGER WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND LAST INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. DUE TO ALL THIS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT AS OUTLINED BELOW.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY
         FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT TO 1
         AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...CHURCH/JJR
MARINE...JJR








000
FXUS61 KBGM 010022
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
822 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR VICINITY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS. AS COLDER AIR
DESCENDS UPON THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES FOR SOME PARTS OF THE AREA WHILE DIMINISHING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
645 PM UPDATE... FCST IN FINE SHAPE. ONLY TWEEK WAS TO LOWER POPS
JUST A BIT IN THE NEAR TERM ACRS THE CNTRL SRN TIER AND WRN FINGER
LAKES WHERE -SHRA ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME SPREADING EWD. PREV
BLO...

4 PM UPDATE...
STILL A STRIPE OF SUNSHINE FROM SCRANTON THROUGH DELHI FOR A TIME
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT REMAINDER OF AREA HAS INCREASING CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER LEVELS. IT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
INTO THIS EVENING. ACTUAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUITE SPOTTY
HOWEVER.

VERY SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS NOW DIGGING THROUGH WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...EN ROUTE TO CUTTING OFF UPPER LOW WHILE CROSSING SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...AND AT THE NC-SC COASTLINE BY 18Z SATURDAY.
500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE EXTREMELY ANOMALOUS...5 TO 6 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL IN THE CAROLINAS...YET ALSO FAR ENOUGH
REMOVED FROM OUR REGION TO HAVE ONLY PERIPHERAL IMPACT. WE WILL STILL
GET THE UPPER TROUGH AND GRADUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
CLOUDS...BUT LACK OF DYNAMICS ALOFT AND FOCUSING FEATURES NEAR THE
SURFACE WILL MAKE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY LIGHT AND
SPOTTY...WITH AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL ENHANCEMENT IN THE
POCONOS-WYOMING VALLEY AREAS DUE TO BRIEF EASTERLY JET AS LOW
DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT.

FOR TONIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF DIGGING TROUGH/CUTTING OFF
LOW WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN PA/NY...KEEPING SOME LIGHT SHOWER
CHANCES MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER TO WESTERN-CENTRAL
FINGER LAKES THIS EVENING. THEN OVERNIGHT...MINOR FRONTOGENESIS-
CONVERGENCE IN THE MID LEVELS OVER OUR REGION AS CYCLOGENESIS
ENSUES AT THE SURFACE WELL OFFSHORE THE MIDATLANTIC COAST. IN
EFFECT...A 700MB PSEUDO-FRONT WILL LOSE DEFINITION OVER OUR
AREA AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY.
A BETTER LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN WYOMING VALLEY TO POCONOS DURING BRIEF
JUXTAPOSITION OF TRANSITORY EASTERLY JET /ATLANTIC MOISTURE
CONTRIBUTION/ AND MID LEVEL LIFT 09Z-12Z SAT.

WITH EXCEPTION OF WYOMING VALLEY-POCONOS...OVERALL THOUGH LACK OF
JET SUPPORT...AND THE DIMINISHING TO EVENTUALLY ELIMINATION OF
ISENTROPIC UPLIFT...WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION
RATHER SPOTTY ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. COLD
AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS SATURDAY WILL ALSO BE
QUITE MINOR...AND NOT YET ENOUGH TO GENERATE LAKE RESPONSE.
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN NOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPEAR COLD ENOUGH
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR SNOW TO MIX IN EXCEPT PERHAPS HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN CATSKILLS /AND EVEN THAT IS IFFY-
SPOTTY/.

LOWS TONIGHT MID 30S TO NEAR 40...THEN TEMPERATURES NOT MOVING MUCH
ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
350 PM UPDATE...
DUE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL VERY GRADUALLY BACK NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHILE BEING PRETTY BRISK DUE TO THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEEP NOVA SCOTIA-BOUND LOW...AND THE
OHIO VALLEY HIGH. THIS WILL MEAN A VERY LIMITED FETCH FOR GREAT
LAKES MOISTURE...DESPITE COLD ENOUGH 850MB TEMPERATURES FOR A LAKE
RESPONSE /WELL BELOW ZERO CELSIUS/. THAT ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR
MASS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...DEWPOINTS CRASHING THROUGH THE
20S SUNDAY...WILL MEAN ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
AT BEST. BEFORE THAT...STILL SOME SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WHICH WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WHILE DIMINISHING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WHERE THEY OCCUR WILL BE MEAGER AND MAINLY LIMITED TO HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION AS WELL AS THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS.

CYCLONIC PRESSURE GRADIENT SUNDAY WILL PUSH GUSTS INTO 25-35 MPH
RANGE...WHICH ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S WILL FEEL QUITE COLD. DRYNESS OF AIR MASS WILL ALSO ALLOW
CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY FOR A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. LOWS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES MONDAY /UPPER 40S-LOW 50S/ DUE TO
WARM AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
WILL PROVIDE MILDER TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT SWINGING OUT OF ONTARIO AND THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

AFTER THE MILD START, TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATED AT 8 PM... SHOWERS OVER ELM AND POINTS WEST WILL SLOWLY
WORK EAST TOWARD ITH BGM SYR AND ITH OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE
MAINLY VFR UNDER THESE SHOWERS BUT CIGS COULD FALL AS LOW AS 2-3
KFT IN HEAVIER SHOWERS RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER ON SATURDAY BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL
BE DRY WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 3 TO 5 KFT.

WINDS WILL BE EAST-NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT BECOMING
NORTH AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS BY LATE SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT...OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN-TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP/MSE







000
FXUS61 KBTV 312355
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
755 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
TRANSLATE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST LATE
TONIGHT. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD LATE SATURDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE AND CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL SEE JUST SOME FRINGE EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM...AMOUNTING TO SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL CREATE GUSTY
NORTH WINDS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER
RETURNS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 733 PM EDT FRIDAY...AFTER A REVIEW OF 18Z NAM/WRF AND BTV-4
GUIDANCE AND GIVEN RATHER DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...I`VE OPTED TO
REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
ACCORDINGLY LOWERED QPF THERE AS WELL.

THOUGH COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY IS DETECTING LIGHT ECHOES EARLY
THIS EVENING...THAT`S SIMPLY THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL OVERCAST DECK
IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. RH`S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
ARE RATHER DRY (GENERALLY 50-60%) OWING TO DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. A LARGER RESERVOIR OF DRIER DEW POINTS (LOW
20S) EXISTS TO THE NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC. NEAR-SFC DRY AIR ADVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ON NORTHEAST GRADIENT FLOW...AS
POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ENERGIZING SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. THAT DRY AIR SHOULD EVAPORATE
ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS OUT OF THE OVERCAST DECK
TONIGHT. 18Z GUIDANCE ALSO ISN`T PARTICULARLY BULLISH ON
PRECIPITATION EITHER.

OTHERWISE...JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES/DEW
POINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST DATA. NO CHANGES TO FORECAST LOWS...IN
THE 30S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY MORNING
WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NEWD TO NEAR OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N
70W BENCHMARK BY LATE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE
OVERCAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT OTHERWISE WE/LL ONLY
EXPERIENCE FRINGE PRECIPITATION AFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH JUST SOME LIGHT RAIN/HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AFFECTING THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS
VERMONT...AND MOSTLY NOT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. POPS RANGE
FROM 30-40 PERCENT AND ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SHOULD ONLY BE
A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL (OR A DUSTING OF SNOW AT
THE SUMMITS) THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND 32-34F AT
THE SUMMITS ABOVE 3000 FEET.

THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NEWD THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH AN INCREASING NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED NORTH
WINDS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE NORTH WINDS OF 10-15 MPH THRU THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AROUND DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH OR
SO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION MOST OVER
LOCATIONS. IF LOW TRACK IS A BIT FURTHER WEST (SIMILAR TO 12Z
GFS)...A DUSTING TO 1" IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN VT VALLEYS DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIFORM GIVEN
CLOUDY/WINDY ENVIRONMENT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

BRISK NORTH WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH DEVELOPMENT OF
PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. COMBINED WITH MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH MUCH OF THE
DAY...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH POSSIBLE. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS NERN VT AS SURFACE LOW DEPARTS NEWD
ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY AND
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOOKING FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT FRIDAY...12Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO BE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH 00Z RUNS AND AMONG THE GFS/EURO MEMBERS --
AT LEAST THRU WEDNESDAY. DEVIATIONS GET LARGER FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVERALL THE FORECAST HASN`T CHANGED MUCH. LOOKS PRETTY
QUIET MONDAY & TUESDAY AND THEN GETTING UNSETTLED FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. DAILY SPECIFICS BELOW...

MONDAY:
THE WEEKEND STORM WILL BE FAR TO THE EAST, WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOWLY RELAXING AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST, BUT STILL ENOUGH TO MAKE
FOR A SEMI-BREEZY DAY -- PERHAPS SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20MPH.
GUIDANCE ALL SIMILAR, SO A BLEND LOOKS THE BEST WAY TO GO. SHOULD
BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS AND EVEN LESS IN THE WAY OF ANY
THREAT OF RAIN/SNOW (SO 0% POP IS GOOD). 925MB TEMPERATURES START
OFF CHILLY (-5C OR SO) BUT SLOWLY WARM TOWARD -1C BY THE
AFTERNOON. WHAT THAT MEANS AT THE SURFACE ARE TEMPERATURES ONLY IN
THE LOW 40S (UPPER 30S HIGHER ELEVATIONS).

MONDAY NIGHT:
FLOW STARTS TO TURN SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER AND
EAST OF HERE. AS WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST, WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME
MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION START TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE TRICKY
PART. THINK COLDEST READINGS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM
WITH LOW/MID 20S EXPECTED WITH MORE TIME WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER, IF THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE CLOUDS IS A FEW HOURS
DIFFERENT, IT COULD MEAN LOWS COULD BE COLDER OR WARMER. BOTTOM
LINE, WENT A BIT ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE, BUT THINGS ARE
UNCERTAIN.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT:
WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. 925MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 8C BY
LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
UNDER PERFECT CONDITIONS, BUT CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME RAIN SHOWERS
WILL KEEP THAT FROM HAPPENING. 50S (THOUGH A BIT ABOVE NORMAL)
WILL DO IT. DURING THE DAY A FRONT SLOWLY SAGS TOWARD THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST, HOWEVER THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MEANS THAT
ULTIMATELY THE FRONT WILL PULL UP STATIONARY AND START TO
DISSIPATE IN PLACE. SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. SO LOW CHANCES IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE
DAY, BUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH SO
CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF
BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS BEING ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTION WITH
POPS AROUND 60% THERE BUT TRENDING DOWN TO <30% IN SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS OF VERMONT. GOOD SUPPORT FOR THE MODELS FOR THIS SORT OF
ORIENTATION OF RAIN CHANCES THANKS TO A STALLED FRONT JUST
NORTH/WEST OF HERE. CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING MUCH. LOTS OF 40S AND A FEW UPPER 30S.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY:
LOOKS LIKE A SOMEWHAT DREARY COUPLE OF DAYS. SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH
EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVES IS IN PLACE. WITH THE STALLED FRONT,
WE`LL SEE SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN BREAK OUT AS THE WEAK
DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WON`T VARY MUCH. STUCK
WITH A MODEL BLEND, BUT EVEN THAT MAY BE TOO WARM DURING THE DAY
AND TOO COOL AT NIGHT. BASICALLY LOW 50S IN THE DAY, 40S AT NIGHT.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY:
MODELS DIVERGE MORE BY THIS POINT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SAY WE
WILL HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFY SOME AND CAUSE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS. DIFFERENCES ARE WITH WHERE THIS ALL HAPPENS. GFS IS
FARTHER WEST WITH TROUGH AND CYCLOGENESIS AND SLOWER WITH THE
PATTERN EVOLUTION. IT WOULD KEEP US IN A WARMER ENVIRONMENT WITH
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT TRANSITIONING TO SNOW
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH PASSES BY AND COLDER AIR
COMES IN. 12Z ECMWF HAS ALL OF THIS HAPPENING QUICKLY THURSDAY
NIGHT SUCH THAT COLDER AIR IS MOVING IN BY FRIDAY MORNING
RESULTING IN A MORE CHANCE OF WHITE STUFF, EVEN AT LOW ELEVATIONS.
AS A COMPARISON, GFS HAS 850MB TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 0C AS OF 12Z
FRIDAY -- MEANWHILE THE ECMWF IS ALREADY DOWN TO -8 TO -10C AT
THAT SAME TIME.

THIS FAR OUT, JUST STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND WHICH RESULTS IN SOME
LIGHT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE ROUGHLY 2000FT AND RAIN SHOWERS
BELOW THAT AS HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE ONLY IN THE 40S.

I`M SURE THIS FORECAST WILL CHANGE SEVERAL MORE TIMES BETWEEN NOW
AND THEN. THAT`S JUST THE WAY THINGS WORK....

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CEILINGS EXIST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND
WILL DO SO THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...THEN CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY AFTER 16Z...BUT NO OBSTRUCTION TO VISIBILITY IS
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE UNDER 10 KNOTS TONIGHT...THEN
INCREASE FROM THE NORTH INTO THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE AFTER 12Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
00Z SUN-00Z MON: VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR WITH A FEW
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AROUND. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GUSTING
IN THE 25-35KT RANGE ON SUNDAY.

00Z MON-12Z TUE: VFR

12Z TUE ONWARD: MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND LOWER CEILINGS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE KCXX-88D DOPPLER RADAR IN
COLCHESTER VERMONT IS OUT OF SERVICE AT THIS TIME. ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIANS HAVE CHECKED THE RADAR AND FOUND A PROBLEM WITH HIGH
VOLTAGE ARCING. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS ARE AT THE RADAR SITE THIS
MORNING ATTEMPTING REPAIRS. OWING TO THE COMPLEX NATURE OF THE
PROBLEM...IT APPEARS THE EARLIEST RETURN TO SERVICE WILL BE
SOMETIME ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KALY 312339
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
739 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT...WILL
PHASE WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WELL EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN
SHOWERS FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...TURNING TO SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. COLD...WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. AFTER A COLD START...MONDAY
SHOULD BE FAIR WITH MODERATING CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 715 PM...SKIES ARE NOW MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA. NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES ON RADAR. TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE LOW 50S
IN THE MID HUDSON AND LOWER HOUSATONIC VALLEYS. NEAREST
PRECIPITATION ECHOES TO THE WEST ARE OVER THE FINGER LAKES...AND
ARE RELATIVELY STATIONARY. NEAREST PRECIPITATION ECHOES TO THE
EAST ARE OVER EASTERN CONNECTICUT AND MOVING NORTH. POPS REMAIN
LOW THIS EVENING. MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO GRIDDED DATABASE BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS...
TRICKY CALL ON OVERALL SKY COVER CONDITIONS TONIGHT...ESP THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT THE LOWER CLOUDS HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT
TIME EXPANDING WESTWARD...MOST LIKELY DUE TO SOME DOWNSLOPING FROM
THE GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. AND THE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SHIFTED A BIT
FARTHER EAST...MAINLY INTO NEW ENGLAND. WE EXPECT LOWER
CLOUDS...FROM MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND AND
LI...TO EXPAND N AND W...INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT AND SE
CATSKILLS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND THEN POSSIBLY FURTHER
N AND W LATER TONIGHT.

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY RIDING NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN VA...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVANCING NORTH AND WEST
FROM SE NEW ENGLAND AND LI...SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING LATER
THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW CT...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND
SE CATSKILLS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS FURTHER N
AND W CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN...AND SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATER TONIGHT.

MIN TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SKY COVER...WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY
DROPPING RAPIDLY THIS EVENING WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
LINGER...BEFORE THICKER CLOUDS DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. HAVE GENERALLY
WENT WITH OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MAV/MET MOS BLEND FOR MIN
TEMPS...WHICH MAY OCCUR AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN SOME
AREAS...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SAT-SAT NT...DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE INSISTING ON MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM
REMAINING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...STILL ADMITTEDLY NOT
OVERLY CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST SOME BANDS OF PRECIP APPROACH AND
POSSIBLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF AT LEAST SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA LATE
SAT AFTN INTO SUN AM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS 4 DISTINCT
SHORTWAVES...WITH THE MAIN FEATURE CURRENTLY TRANSLATING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING IMPULSE RACING SE
INTO NW ONTARIO. IT IS THIS LAST FEATURE...IN NW ONTARIO...THAT HAS
SOME POTENTIAL TO PULL THINGS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST THAN CURRENT
MODELS INDICATE. AT THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING SATURDAY...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THEN...AS THE LOW RAPIDLY
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE WITH SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...CURRENT PROJECTIONS
INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE STEADIER PRECIP REMAINS CONFINED CLOSER
TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A LOW
PROBABILITY THAT A BAND OF STEADIER PRECIP ADVANCES NORTHWEST OR
WEST AROUND THE THE DEVELOPING LOW...ESP LATE SAT NT OR EARLY
SUNDAY. SO...WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WELL INTO
SAT NT...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE
TO VERY CLOSELY MONITOR RADAR TRENDS...AND ALSO NEAR TERM FORECAST
GUIDANCE FROM THE RAP/HRRR...WHICH MAY GIVE SOME NEAR- TO SHORT-
TERM HINTS THAT PRECIP MAY BE TRENDING FARTHER N AND W. THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN IN VALLEYS THROUGH SAT...WITH SOME
SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY...ESP
ELEVATIONS GREATER THAN 1500 FT. THEN...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
DYNAMICAL COOLING CAN OCCUR...RAIN AND OR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS ALL ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT SAT
EVENING...AND PERHAPS EVEN IN VALLEY AREAS LATER SAT NT. CURRENT
GRIDDED DATABASE INCLUDES SOME MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF UP TO AN
INCH ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND
ALSO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...BY SUNRISE SUNDAY.
ALSO...UP TO ONE HALF INCH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AGAIN...THERE REMAINS A SMALL PROBABILITY
THAT GREATER AMTS COULD OCCUR...AT LEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LITCHFIELD CO IF
THE PRECIP TRENDS FARTHER WEST.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN VALLEYS FOR
SAT...THEN FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR SAT NT IN VALLEYS...WITH
POSSIBLY SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SAT AFTN INTO SAT NT...AND MAY GUST TO 25-30 MPH...ESP IN
SOME N/S ORIENTED VALLEYS.

SUN-MON...AFTER ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF SUN AM...WITH
CLEARING BY AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE WINDY AND COLD SUNDAY...WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN VALLEYS...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR
HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS MAY STILL GUST TO 35-45 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND THE TACONICS...AND
POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS...AND
25-35 MPH ELSEWHERE. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 40S IN
VALLEYS...EXCEPT POSSIBLY 45-50 IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH MAINLY 30S TO NEAR 40 FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLEAR
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS LATE SUN NT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH
THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE FALL SEASON...GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH
SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAX TEMPS ON MON
SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID
40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SUN NT-MON SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
CLEAR...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY CLOUDS COULD PASS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CATSKILLS LATE SUN NT/EARLY MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO START THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER FOR MON NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MIN TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE CHILLY FOR MON NIGHT WITH
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...BUT LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME RAIN SHOWERS
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...WITH MAINLY 40S ACROSS THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO BE
IN THE 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...COOLER AIR WILL POUR INTO
THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES TURNING COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW AT THE HUDSON
VALLEY TAF SITES. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A CEILING BETWEEN 3000
FEET AND 5000 FEET. VFR BECOMING MVFR IS EXPECTED AT KPSF AS THE
CEILING LOWERS TO AROUND 15OO FT MSL LATER SATURDAY. AFTER
02Z...SOME SHOWERS COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH THE KPOU AREA AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALL TAF SITES HAVE
A THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD EXCEPT AT KPSF WHERE THEY ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MVFR
LATER SATURDAY.

WINDS FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AT LESS
THAN 10 KT...THEN WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15KT FROM THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31.0  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...TURNING
TO SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS
OF THE SEASON OVER US BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...SND/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL








000
FXUS61 KBTV 312334
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
734 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
TRANSLATE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST LATE
TONIGHT. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD LATE SATURDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE AND CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL SEE JUST SOME FRINGE EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM...AMOUNTING TO SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL CREATE GUSTY
NORTH WINDS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER
RETURNS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 733 PM EDT FRIDAY...AFTER A REVIEW OF 18Z NAM/WRF AND BTV-4
GUIDANCE AND GIVEN RATHER DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...I`VE OPTED TO
REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
ACCORDINGLY LOWERED QPF THERE AS WELL.

THOUGH COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY IS DETECTING LIGHT ECHOES EARLY
THIS EVENING...THAT`S SIMPLY THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL OVERCAST DECK
IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. RH`S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
ARE RATHER DRY (GENERALLY 50-60%) OWING TO DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S. A LARGER RESERVOIR OF DRIER DEWPOINTS (LOW 20S) EXISTS
TO THE NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC. NEAR-SFC DRY AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ON NORTHEAST GRADIENT FLOW...AS POTENT
SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ENERGIZING SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF
THE COAST OVERNIGHT. THAT DRY AIR SHOULD EVAPORATE ANY LIGHT
PRECIP THAT FALLS OUT OF THE OVERCAST DECK TONIGHT. 18Z GUIDANCE
ALSO ISN`T PARTICULARLY BULLISH ON PRECIP EITHER.

OTHERWISE...JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST DATA. NO CHANGES TO FCST LOWS...IN THE 30S
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY MORNING
WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NEWD TO NEAR OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N
70W BENCHMARK BY LATE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE
OVERCAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT OTHERWISE WE/LL ONLY
EXPERIENCE FRINGE PRECIPITATION AFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH JUST SOME LIGHT RAIN/HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AFFECTING THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS
VERMONT...AND MOSTLY NOT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. POPS RANGE
FROM 30-40 PERCENT AND ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SHOULD ONLY BE
A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL (OR A DUSTING OF SNOW AT
THE SUMMITS) THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND 32-34F AT
THE SUMMITS ABOVE 3000 FEET.

THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NEWD THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH AN INCREASING NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED NORTH
WINDS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE NORTH WINDS OF 10-15 MPH THRU THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AROUND DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH OR
SO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION MOST OVER
LOCATIONS. IF LOW TRACK IS A BIT FURTHER WEST (SIMILAR TO 12Z
GFS)...A DUSTING TO 1" IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN VT VALLEYS DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIFORM GIVEN
CLOUDY/WINDY ENVIRONMENT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

BRISK NORTH WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH DEVELOPMENT OF
PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. COMBINED WITH MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH MUCH OF THE
DAY...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH POSSIBLE. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS NERN VT AS SURFACE LOW DEPARTS NEWD
ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY AND
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOOKING FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT FRIDAY...12Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO BE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH 00Z RUNS AND AMONG THE GFS/EURO MEMBERS --
AT LEAST THRU WEDNESDAY. DEVIATIONS GET LARGER FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVERALL THE FORECAST HASN`T CHANGED MUCH. LOOKS PRETTY
QUIET MONDAY & TUESDAY AND THEN GETTING UNSETTLED FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. DAILY SPECIFICS BELOW...

MONDAY:
THE WEEKEND STORM WILL BE FAR TO THE EAST, WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOWLY RELAXING AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST, BUT STILL ENOUGH TO MAKE
FOR A SEMI-BREEZY DAY -- PERHAPS SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20MPH.
GUIDANCE ALL SIMILAR, SO A BLEND LOOKS THE BEST WAY TO GO. SHOULD
BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS AND EVEN LESS IN THE WAY OF ANY
THREAT OF RAIN/SNOW (SO 0% POP IS GOOD). 925MB TEMPERATURES START
OFF CHILLY (-5C OR SO) BUT SLOWLY WARM TOWARD -1C BY THE
AFTERNOON. WHAT THAT MEANS AT THE SURFACE ARE TEMPERATURES ONLY IN
THE LOW 40S (UPPER 30S HIGHER ELEVATIONS).

MONDAY NIGHT:
FLOW STARTS TO TURN SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER AND
EAST OF HERE. AS WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST, WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME
MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION START TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE TRICKY
PART. THINK COLDEST READINGS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM
WITH LOW/MID 20S EXPECTED WITH MORE TIME WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER, IF THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE CLOUDS IS A FEW HOURS
DIFFERENT, IT COULD MEAN LOWS COULD BE COLDER OR WARMER. BOTTOM
LINE, WENT A BIT ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE, BUT THINGS ARE
UNCERTAIN.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT:
WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. 925MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 8C BY
LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
UNDER PERFECT CONDITIONS, BUT CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME RAIN SHOWERS
WILL KEEP THAT FROM HAPPENING. 50S (THOUGH A BIT ABOVE NORMAL)
WILL DO IT. DURING THE DAY A FRONT SLOWLY SAGS TOWARD THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST, HOWEVER THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MEANS THAT
ULTIMATELY THE FRONT WILL PULL UP STATIONARY AND START TO
DISSIPATE IN PLACE. SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. SO LOW CHANCES IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE
DAY, BUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH SO
CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF
BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS BEING ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTION WITH
POPS AROUND 60% THERE BUT TRENDING DOWN TO <30% IN SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS OF VERMONT. GOOD SUPPORT FOR THE MODELS FOR THIS SORT OF
ORIENTATION OF RAIN CHANCES THANKS TO A STALLED FRONT JUST
NORTH/WEST OF HERE. CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING MUCH. LOTS OF 40S AND A FEW UPPER 30S.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY:
LOOKS LIKE A SOMEWHAT DREAY COUPLE OF DAYS. SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH
EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVES IS IN PLACE. WITH THE STALLED FRONT,
WE`LL SEE SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN BREAK OUT AS THE WEAK
DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WON`T VARY MUCH. STUCK
WITH A MODEL BLEND, BUT EVEN THAT MAY BE TOO WARM DURING THE DAY
AND TOO COOL AT NIGHT. BASICALLY LOW 50S IN THE DAY, 40S AT NIGHT.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY:
MODELS DIVERGE MORE BY THIS POINT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SAY WE
WILL HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFY SOME AND CAUSE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS. DIFFERENCES ARE WITH WHERE THIS ALL HAPPENS. GFS IS
FARTHER WEST WITH TROUGH AND CYCLOGENESIS AND SLOWER WITH THE
PATTERN EVOLUTION. IT WOULD KEEP US IN A WARMER ENVIRONMENT WITH
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT TRANSITIONING TO SNOW
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH PASSES BY AND COLDER AIR
COMES IN. 12Z ECMWF HAS ALL OF THIS HAPPENING QUICKLY THURSDAY
NIGHT SUCH THAT COLDER AIR IS MOVING IN BY FRIDAY MORNING
RESULTING IN A MORE CHANCE OF WHITE STUFF, EVEN AT LOW ELEVATIONS.
AS A COMPARISON, GFS HAS 850MB TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 0C AS OF 12Z
FRIDAY -- MEANWHILE THE ECMWF IS ALREADY DOWN TO -8 TO -10C AT
THAT SAME TIME.

THIS FAR OUT, JUST STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND WHICH RESULTS IN SOME
LIGHT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE ROUGHLY 2000FT AND RAIN SHOWERS
BELOW THAT AS HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE ONLY IN THE 40S.

I`M SURE THIS FORECAST WILL CHANGE SEVERAL MORE TIMES BETWEEN NOW
AND THEN. THAT`S JUST THE WAY THINGS WORK....

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...PRETTY MUCH VFR ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THICKER/MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ARE JUST OFF TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION AS A STORM SYSTEM IS IN THE
PROCESS OF ORGANIZING. LIGHT RAIN IS OCCURRING MORE TOWARDS LAKE
ONTARIO AND POINTS WEST FROM THERE, AND THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS
AS TO HOW FAR TO THE EAST THE RAIN WILL GET AND HOW FAST THAT WILL
HAPPEN. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE ANSWERS ARE NOT ALL THAT MUCH
AND NOT ALL THAT FAST, AS THE ORGANIZING STORM WILL TAKE A PATH
KEEPING IT FAR SOUTH OF THE REGION. DO THINK SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING (PROBABLY AFTER 03Z).
LIGHT RAIN COULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW AS WELL AT MSS AND
SLK. WITH ANY RAIN/SNOW, WE SHOULD SEE MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
DURING SATURDAY MORNING, WE EXPECT ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD
BE MINIMAL. HAVE JUST INCLUDED "VCSH" IN MOST TAFS FOR THAT.
SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST WILL BE STRENGTHENING SOME
ON SATURDAY PRIMARILY IN THE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
18Z SAT-00Z MON: VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR WITH A FEW RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GUSTING IN THE
25-35KT RANGE ON SUNDAY.

00Z MON-12Z TUE: VFR

12Z TUE ONWARD: MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND LOWER CEILINGS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE KCXX-88D DOPPLER RADAR IN
COLCHESTER VERMONT IS OUT OF SERVICE AT THIS TIME. ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIANS HAVE CHECKED THE RADAR AND FOUND A PROBLEM WITH HIGH
VOLTAGE ARCING. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS ARE AT THE RADAR SITE THIS
MORNING ATTEMPTING REPAIRS. OWING TO THE COMPLEX NATURE OF THE
PROBLEM...IT APPEARS THE EARLIEST RETURN TO SERVICE WILL BE
SOMETIME ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KALY 312315
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
715 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT...WILL
PHASE WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WELL EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN
SHOWERS FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...TURNING TO SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. COLD...WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. AFTER A COLD START...MONDAY
SHOULD BE FAIR WITH MODERATING CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 715 PM...SKIES ARE NOW MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA. NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES ON RADAR. TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE LOW 50S
IN THE MID HUDSON AND LOWER HOUSATONIC VALLEYS. NEAREST
PRECIPITATION ECHOES TO THE WEST ARE OVER THE FINGER LAKES...AND
ARE RELATIVELY STATIONARY. NEAREST PRECIPITATION ECHOES TO THE
EAST ARE OVER EASTERN CONNECTICUT AND MOVING NORTH. POPS REMAIN
LOW THIS EVENING. MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO GRIDDED DATABASE BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS...
TRICKY CALL ON OVERALL SKY COVER CONDITIONS TONIGHT...ESP THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT THE LOWER CLOUDS HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT
TIME EXPANDING WESTWARD...MOST LIKELY DUE TO SOME DOWNSLOPING FROM
THE GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. AND THE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SHIFTED A BIT
FARTHER EAST...MAINLY INTO NEW ENGLAND. WE EXPECT LOWER
CLOUDS...FROM MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND AND
LI...TO EXPAND N AND W...INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT AND SE
CATSKILLS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND THEN POSSIBLY FURTHER
N AND W LATER TONIGHT.

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY RIDING NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN VA...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVANCING NORTH AND WEST
FROM SE NEW ENGLAND AND LI...SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING LATER
THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW CT...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND
SE CATSKILLS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS FURTHER N
AND W CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN...AND SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATER TONIGHT.

MIN TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SKY COVER...WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY
DROPPING RAPIDLY THIS EVENING WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
LINGER...BEFORE THICKER CLOUDS DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. HAVE GENERALLY
WENT WITH OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MAV/MET MOS BLEND FOR MIN
TEMPS...WHICH MAY OCCUR AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN SOME
AREAS...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SAT-SAT NT...DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE INSISTING ON MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM
REMAINING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...STILL ADMITTEDLY NOT
OVERLY CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST SOME BANDS OF PRECIP APPROACH AND
POSSIBLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF AT LEAST SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA LATE
SAT AFTN INTO SUN AM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS 4 DISTINCT
SHORTWAVES...WITH THE MAIN FEATURE CURRENTLY TRANSLATING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING IMPULSE RACING SE
INTO NW ONTARIO. IT IS THIS LAST FEATURE...IN NW ONTARIO...THAT HAS
SOME POTENTIAL TO PULL THINGS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST THAN CURRENT
MODELS INDICATE. AT THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING SATURDAY...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THEN...AS THE LOW RAPIDLY
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE WITH SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...CURRENT PROJECTIONS
INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE STEADIER PRECIP REMAINS CONFINED CLOSER
TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A LOW
PROBABILITY THAT A BAND OF STEADIER PRECIP ADVANCES NORTHWEST OR
WEST AROUND THE THE DEVELOPING LOW...ESP LATE SAT NT OR EARLY
SUNDAY. SO...WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WELL INTO
SAT NT...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE
TO VERY CLOSELY MONITOR RADAR TRENDS...AND ALSO NEAR TERM FORECAST
GUIDANCE FROM THE RAP/HRRR...WHICH MAY GIVE SOME NEAR- TO SHORT-
TERM HINTS THAT PRECIP MAY BE TRENDING FARTHER N AND W. THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN IN VALLEYS THROUGH SAT...WITH SOME
SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY...ESP
ELEVATIONS GREATER THAN 1500 FT. THEN...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
DYNAMICAL COOLING CAN OCCUR...RAIN AND OR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS ALL ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT SAT
EVENING...AND PERHAPS EVEN IN VALLEY AREAS LATER SAT NT. CURRENT
GRIDDED DATABASE INCLUDES SOME MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF UP TO AN
INCH ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND
ALSO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...BY SUNRISE SUNDAY.
ALSO...UP TO ONE HALF INCH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AGAIN...THERE REMAINS A SMALL PROBABILITY
THAT GREATER AMTS COULD OCCUR...AT LEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LITCHFIELD CO IF
THE PRECIP TRENDS FARTHER WEST.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN VALLEYS FOR
SAT...THEN FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR SAT NT IN VALLEYS...WITH
POSSIBLY SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SAT AFTN INTO SAT NT...AND MAY GUST TO 25-30 MPH...ESP IN
SOME N/S ORIENTED VALLEYS.

SUN-MON...AFTER ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF SUN AM...WITH
CLEARING BY AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE WINDY AND COLD SUNDAY...WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN VALLEYS...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR
HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS MAY STILL GUST TO 35-45 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND THE TACONICS...AND
POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS...AND
25-35 MPH ELSEWHERE. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 40S IN
VALLEYS...EXCEPT POSSIBLY 45-50 IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH MAINLY 30S TO NEAR 40 FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLEAR
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS LATE SUN NT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH
THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE FALL SEASON...GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH
SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAX TEMPS ON MON
SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID
40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SUN NT-MON SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
CLEAR...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY CLOUDS COULD PASS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CATSKILLS LATE SUN NT/EARLY MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO START THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER FOR MON NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MIN TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE CHILLY FOR MON NIGHT WITH
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...BUT LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME RAIN SHOWERS
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...WITH MAINLY 40S ACROSS THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO BE
IN THE 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...COOLER AIR WILL POUR INTO
THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES TURNING COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW. HOWEVER...A CEILING
BETWEEN 3000 FEET AND 5000 FEET...WHICH HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AROUND
KPSF...SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AFTER 14Z...SOME SHOWERS COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH THE KPOU
AREA AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WINDS FROM THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT LESS
THAN 10 KT...THEN APPROACH 10 KT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31.0  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...TURNING
TO SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS
OF THE SEASON OVER US BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SND
NEAR TERM...SND/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL








000
FXUS61 KBGM 312248
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
648 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR VICINITY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS. AS COLDER AIR
DESCENDS UPON THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES FOR SOME PARTS OF THE AREA WHILE DIMINISHING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
645 PM UPDATE... FCST IN FINE SHAPE. ONLY TWEEK WAS TO LOWER POPS
JUST A BIT IN THE NEAR TERM ACRS THE CNTRL SRN TIER AND WRN FINGER
LAKES WHERE -SHRA ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME SPREADING EWD. PREV
BLO...

4 PM UPDATE...
STILL A STRIPE OF SUNSHINE FROM SCRANTON THROUGH DELHI FOR A TIME
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT REMAINDER OF AREA HAS INCREASING CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER LEVELS. IT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
INTO THIS EVENING. ACTUAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUITE SPOTTY
HOWEVER.

VERY SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS NOW DIGGING THROUGH WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...EN ROUTE TO CUTTING OFF UPPER LOW WHILE CROSSING SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...AND AT THE NC-SC COASTLINE BY 18Z SATURDAY.
500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE EXTREMELY ANOMALOUS...5 TO 6 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL IN THE CAROLINAS...YET ALSO FAR ENOUGH
REMOVED FROM OUR REGION TO HAVE ONLY PERIPHERAL IMPACT. WE WILL STILL
GET THE UPPER TROUGH AND GRADUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
CLOUDS...BUT LACK OF DYNAMICS ALOFT AND FOCUSING FEATURES NEAR THE
SURFACE WILL MAKE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY LIGHT AND
SPOTTY...WITH AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL ENHANCEMENT IN THE
POCONOS-WYOMING VALLEY AREAS DUE TO BRIEF EASTERLY JET AS LOW
DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT.

FOR TONIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF DIGGING TROUGH/CUTTING OFF
LOW WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN PA/NY...KEEPING SOME LIGHT SHOWER
CHANCES MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER TO WESTERN-CENTRAL
FINGER LAKES THIS EVENING. THEN OVERNIGHT...MINOR FRONTOGENESIS-
CONVERGENCE IN THE MID LEVELS OVER OUR REGION AS CYCLOGENESIS
ENSUES AT THE SURFACE WELL OFFSHORE THE MIDATLANTIC COAST. IN
EFFECT...A 700MB PSEUDO-FRONT WILL LOSE DEFINITION OVER OUR
AREA AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY.
A BETTER LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN WYOMING VALLEY TO POCONOS DURING BRIEF
JUXTAPOSITION OF TRANSITORY EASTERLY JET /ATLANTIC MOISTURE
CONTRIBUTION/ AND MID LEVEL LIFT 09Z-12Z SAT.

WITH EXCEPTION OF WYOMING VALLEY-POCONOS...OVERALL THOUGH LACK OF
JET SUPPORT...AND THE DIMINISHING TO EVENTUALLY ELIMINATION OF
ISENTROPIC UPLIFT...WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION
RATHER SPOTTY ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. COLD
AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS SATURDAY WILL ALSO BE
QUITE MINOR...AND NOT YET ENOUGH TO GENERATE LAKE RESPONSE.
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN NOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPEAR COLD ENOUGH
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR SNOW TO MIX IN EXCEPT PERHAPS HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN CATSKILLS /AND EVEN THAT IS IFFY-
SPOTTY/.

LOWS TONIGHT MID 30S TO NEAR 40...THEN TEMPERATURES NOT MOVING MUCH
ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
350 PM UPDATE...
DUE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL VERY GRADUALLY BACK NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHILE BEING PRETTY BRISK DUE TO THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEEP NOVA SCOTIA-BOUND LOW...AND THE
OHIO VALLEY HIGH. THIS WILL MEAN A VERY LIMITED FETCH FOR GREAT
LAKES MOISTURE...DESPITE COLD ENOUGH 850MB TEMPERATURES FOR A LAKE
RESPONSE /WELL BELOW ZERO CELSIUS/. THAT ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR
MASS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...DEWPOINTS CRASHING THROUGH THE
20S SUNDAY...WILL MEAN ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
AT BEST. BEFORE THAT...STILL SOME SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WHICH WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WHILE DIMINISHING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WHERE THEY OCCUR WILL BE MEAGER AND MAINLY LIMITED TO HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION AS WELL AS THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS.

CYCLONIC PRESSURE GRADIENT SUNDAY WILL PUSH GUSTS INTO 25-35 MPH
RANGE...WHICH ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S WILL FEEL QUITE COLD. DRYNESS OF AIR MASS WILL ALSO ALLOW
CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY FOR A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. LOWS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES MONDAY /UPPER 40S-LOW 50S/ DUE TO
WARM AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
WILL PROVIDE MILDER TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT SWINGING OUT OF ONTARIO AND THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

AFTER THE MILD START, TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MIDDAY
SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS FOR BGM AND ITH, WHERE MVFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MID MORNING.

SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LARGELY NON-RESTRICTIVE.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT...OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN-TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 312248
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
648 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR VICINITY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS. AS COLDER AIR
DESCENDS UPON THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES FOR SOME PARTS OF THE AREA WHILE DIMINISHING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
645 PM UPDATE... FCST IN FINE SHAPE. ONLY TWEEK WAS TO LOWER POPS
JUST A BIT IN THE NEAR TERM ACRS THE CNTRL SRN TIER AND WRN FINGER
LAKES WHERE -SHRA ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME SPREADING EWD. PREV
BLO...

4 PM UPDATE...
STILL A STRIPE OF SUNSHINE FROM SCRANTON THROUGH DELHI FOR A TIME
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT REMAINDER OF AREA HAS INCREASING CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER LEVELS. IT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
INTO THIS EVENING. ACTUAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUITE SPOTTY
HOWEVER.

VERY SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS NOW DIGGING THROUGH WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...EN ROUTE TO CUTTING OFF UPPER LOW WHILE CROSSING SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...AND AT THE NC-SC COASTLINE BY 18Z SATURDAY.
500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE EXTREMELY ANOMALOUS...5 TO 6 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL IN THE CAROLINAS...YET ALSO FAR ENOUGH
REMOVED FROM OUR REGION TO HAVE ONLY PERIPHERAL IMPACT. WE WILL STILL
GET THE UPPER TROUGH AND GRADUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
CLOUDS...BUT LACK OF DYNAMICS ALOFT AND FOCUSING FEATURES NEAR THE
SURFACE WILL MAKE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY LIGHT AND
SPOTTY...WITH AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL ENHANCEMENT IN THE
POCONOS-WYOMING VALLEY AREAS DUE TO BRIEF EASTERLY JET AS LOW
DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT.

FOR TONIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF DIGGING TROUGH/CUTTING OFF
LOW WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN PA/NY...KEEPING SOME LIGHT SHOWER
CHANCES MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER TO WESTERN-CENTRAL
FINGER LAKES THIS EVENING. THEN OVERNIGHT...MINOR FRONTOGENESIS-
CONVERGENCE IN THE MID LEVELS OVER OUR REGION AS CYCLOGENESIS
ENSUES AT THE SURFACE WELL OFFSHORE THE MIDATLANTIC COAST. IN
EFFECT...A 700MB PSEUDO-FRONT WILL LOSE DEFINITION OVER OUR
AREA AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY.
A BETTER LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN WYOMING VALLEY TO POCONOS DURING BRIEF
JUXTAPOSITION OF TRANSITORY EASTERLY JET /ATLANTIC MOISTURE
CONTRIBUTION/ AND MID LEVEL LIFT 09Z-12Z SAT.

WITH EXCEPTION OF WYOMING VALLEY-POCONOS...OVERALL THOUGH LACK OF
JET SUPPORT...AND THE DIMINISHING TO EVENTUALLY ELIMINATION OF
ISENTROPIC UPLIFT...WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION
RATHER SPOTTY ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. COLD
AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS SATURDAY WILL ALSO BE
QUITE MINOR...AND NOT YET ENOUGH TO GENERATE LAKE RESPONSE.
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN NOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPEAR COLD ENOUGH
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR SNOW TO MIX IN EXCEPT PERHAPS HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN CATSKILLS /AND EVEN THAT IS IFFY-
SPOTTY/.

LOWS TONIGHT MID 30S TO NEAR 40...THEN TEMPERATURES NOT MOVING MUCH
ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
350 PM UPDATE...
DUE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL VERY GRADUALLY BACK NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHILE BEING PRETTY BRISK DUE TO THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEEP NOVA SCOTIA-BOUND LOW...AND THE
OHIO VALLEY HIGH. THIS WILL MEAN A VERY LIMITED FETCH FOR GREAT
LAKES MOISTURE...DESPITE COLD ENOUGH 850MB TEMPERATURES FOR A LAKE
RESPONSE /WELL BELOW ZERO CELSIUS/. THAT ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR
MASS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...DEWPOINTS CRASHING THROUGH THE
20S SUNDAY...WILL MEAN ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
AT BEST. BEFORE THAT...STILL SOME SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WHICH WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WHILE DIMINISHING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WHERE THEY OCCUR WILL BE MEAGER AND MAINLY LIMITED TO HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION AS WELL AS THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS.

CYCLONIC PRESSURE GRADIENT SUNDAY WILL PUSH GUSTS INTO 25-35 MPH
RANGE...WHICH ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S WILL FEEL QUITE COLD. DRYNESS OF AIR MASS WILL ALSO ALLOW
CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY FOR A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. LOWS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES MONDAY /UPPER 40S-LOW 50S/ DUE TO
WARM AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
WILL PROVIDE MILDER TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT SWINGING OUT OF ONTARIO AND THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

AFTER THE MILD START, TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MIDDAY
SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS FOR BGM AND ITH, WHERE MVFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MID MORNING.

SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LARGELY NON-RESTRICTIVE.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT...OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN-TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KOKX 312054
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
454 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW TRACKS TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY. WINDY AND COOL ON SUNDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE NOR`EASTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSES ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY
BREEZY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS REMAINS WELL
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. STRONG SHORTWAVE/VORT
DIVES SEWD AND ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE.

WITH SOME UPPER SUPPORT...12Z MODEL SUITE...INCLUDING HRRR SEEM
TO FOCUS RAIN DEVELOPMENT ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS NW
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW. AS ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS TONIGHT WITH
STRENGTHENING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE...WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES NEAR THE COAST AND TOWARD
NEW JERSEY.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND TO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CLOSED DEEP UPPER LOW PIVOTS EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. AT THE SURFACE...A COUPLE OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE INITIAL LOW MOVES
JUST E OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AS THE NEXT LOW FOLLOWS ABOUT 12
HOURS LATER.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE
WEST AND THESE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL RESULT
IN WINDY CONDITIONS.

NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE SATURDAY...THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...FEEL WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS WILL NOT BE MET DURING THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH EASTERN LOCATIONS COULD COME CLOSE.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR 40 KT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED SAT NIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT TOO HIGH...AND IT IS A THIRD PERIOD EVENT. WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY WIND RELATED HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

CSTL LOCATIONS WILL OBSERVE PERIODS OF RAIN...WITH PROBABILITIES
TAPERING DOWNWARD AS YOU HEAD INLAND. WITH CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN CHILLY. EXPECT TEMPS UPPER 40S TO AROUND
50.

COLD AIR ADVECTION SAT NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 30S
MANY LOCATIONS...EXCEPT AROUND 40 NEAR THE COAST.

RAIN TAPERS OFF. A FEW SNOW FLAKES ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN. IN FACT...A FEW SREF MEMBERS
OUTPUT MEASURABLE SNOW. HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR PRECIP TO
END BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE. WINDY FOR SUNDAY AS SFC LOW DEPARTS
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOOKING AT 09Z SREF AND VARIOUS 12Z
MODEL SOUNDINGS...APPEARS WE`RE SHORT OF 40 KT WIND GUST CRITERIA
FOR ADVISORY...BUT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE 27 KT SUSTAIN CRITERIA IN
PLACES...ESPECIALLY AROUND NYC.

CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING COULD GENERATE A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY...BUT HAVE
NOT INCLUDED THIS IN THE FCST AS NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANCE. DO NOTE THAT THERE ARE 3 MEMBERS IN THE 09Z SREF THAT
DO GENERATE MEASURABLE SNOW - SO IT`S SOMETHING TO MONITOR. MAX
TEMPS CLOSE TO 12Z MOS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S AND CONSISTENT
WITH THE 00Z ENSEMBLE EC/GEFS MOS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE START OF THE WEEK WITH SLOW
MODERATION OF TEMPS.

COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES EXPECTED SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY AS NEXT SHORT WAVE DIGS IN. POPS REMAIN LOW FOR THIS EVENT
AS TIMING REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN AND OVERALL PCPN APPEARS LIGHT.
12Z GEFS SUPPORTS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AS PATTERN IS BECOMING
NON-LINEAR. NOTE THAT MORE GEFS MEMBERS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF THE
FASTER/PROGRESSIVE 12Z ECMWF...THUS HAVE KEPT FRIDAY DRY WITH
COOLER/NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SERIES OF LOWS WILL TRACK OFFSHORE AND INTENSIFY THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. MAIN TWO FEATURES IN THE TAFS ARE THE STEADY MVFR RAIN AND
GUSTY N-NE FLOW WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT RANGE...MAINLY IN THE LATTER
HALF OF TAF PERIOD.

VFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY BECOME MVFR LATE TONIGHT AS RAIN BECOMES
MORE STEADY AND THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. RAIN COULD BE
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...RESULTING IN POSSIBLE PERIODIC IFR
CONDITIONS SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF CITY TERMINALS.

NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND THEN WINDS INCREASE FURTHER TO 20-25 KT
WITH 25-30 KT GUSTS AFTER 15Z SATURDAY...WHILE BACKING TO THE NORTH.

EXCEPTION WILL BE KSWF...WHERE PRECIP AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AND
CONDITIONS OCCASIONALLY DROPPING TO MVFR.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE FROM 00-02Z SATURDAY IN
-RA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH 07Z SATURDAY.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE FROM 00-02Z SATURDAY IN
-RA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH 07Z SATURDAY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE FROM 01-03Z SATURDAY IN
-RA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH 07Z SATURDAY.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE FROM 01-03Z SATURDAY IN
-RA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH 07Z SATURDAY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE FROM 01-03Z SATURDAY IN
-RA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH 07Z SATURDAY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 01Z SATURDAY IN
-RA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY...MVFR CONDS IN RA. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT...BACKING TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR. NORTH WINDS AROUND 20 KT
WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KT WITH 30-40 KT GUSTS.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT.
.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR DURING THE DAY...CONDS LOWERING TO MVFR IN -RA AT
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES AS IT
TRACKS SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS. THE WATERS REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE DAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT.

ROUGH SEAS PER WAVEWATCH SEEM QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED
WINDS.

GALES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. WINDS START TO DIMINISH AT NIGHT. BY MONDAY
MORNING...ALL WATERS SHOULD BE BELOW GALE FORCE GUSTS...HOWEVER SCA
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL ACROSS THE OCEAN AND EASTERN WATERS
THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL
LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO REACH ALL OF THE WATERS
WHEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE FLOW
BACKS TO WSW ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUES SUCH ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING. THEN MORE OF A STEADY LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN IS FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RAIN TAPERS
OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.

STILL EXPECT TOTAL RAINFALL TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT TO RANGE  FROM
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER ORANGE COUNTY AND INTERIOR LOCALES
TO A HALF AN INCH...OR POSSIBLY UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
OVER SE CT/E SUFFOLK COUNTY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED DURATION OF
PRECIPITATION OF 24 HOURS...NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS
ANTICIPATED FROM THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A STRONG NE FLOW...A FEW LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH COASTAL
FLOODING BENCHMARKS AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
PORTIONS OF NY HARBOR (SANDY HOOK VICINITY)...THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS
OF LONG ISLAND AND WESTERN LI SOUND WOULD BE THE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE
AREAS. PECONIC BAY MAY COME CLOSE IN SPOTS AS WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-350-353-355.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...TONGUE
AVIATION...JM/MPS
MARINE...TONGUE/PW
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...









000
FXUS61 KALY 312042
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
442 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...TURNING
TO SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS
OF THE SEASON OVER US BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 440 PM EDT...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS PERSIST FROM THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION SOUTH TO ALBANY AND INTO THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...AND EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. A MIX OF HIGH AND LOW CLOUDS
ARE PREVALENT ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

TRICKY CALL ON OVERALL SKY COVER CONDITIONS TONIGHT...ESP THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT THE LOWER CLOUDS HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT TIME
EXPANDING WESTWARD...MOST LIKELY DUE TO SOME DOWNSLOPING FROM THE
GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. AND THE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SHIFTED A BIT
FARTHER EAST...MAINLY INTO NEW ENGLAND. WE EXPECT LOWER
CLOUDS...FROM MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND AND
LI...TO EXPAND N AND W...INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT AND SE
CATSKILLS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND THEN POSSIBLY FURTHER N
AND W LATER TONIGHT.

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY RIDING NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN VA...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVANCING NORTH AND WEST
FROM SE NEW ENGLAND AND LI...SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING LATER
THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW CT...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND
SE CATSKILLS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS FURTHER N
AND W CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN...AND SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATER TONIGHT.

MIN TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SKY COVER...WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY
DROPPING RAPIDLY THIS EVENING WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
LINGER...BEFORE THICKER CLOUDS DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. HAVE GENERALLY
WENT WITH OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MAV/MET MOS BLEND FOR MIN
TEMPS...WHICH MAY OCCUR AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN SOME
AREAS...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SAT-SAT NT...DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE INSISTING ON MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM
REMAINING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...STILL ADMITTEDLY NOT
OVERLY CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST SOME BANDS OF PRECIP APPROACH AND
POSSIBLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF AT LEAST SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA LATE
SAT AFTN INTO SUN AM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS 4 DISTINCT
SHORTWAVES...WITH THE MAIN FEATURE CURRENTLY TRANSLATING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING IMPULSE RACING SE
INTO NW ONTARIO. IT IS THIS LAST FEATURE...IN NW ONTARIO...THAT HAS
SOME POTENTIAL TO PULL THINGS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST THAN CURRENT
MODELS INDICATE. AT THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING SATURDAY...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THEN...AS THE LOW RAPIDLY
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE WITH SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...CURRENT PROJECTIONS
INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE STEADIER PRECIP REMAINS CONFINED CLOSER
TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A LOW
PROBABILITY THAT A BAND OF STEADIER PRECIP ADVANCES NORTHWEST OR
WEST AROUND THE THE DEVELOPING LOW...ESP LATE SAT NT OR EARLY
SUNDAY. SO...WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WELL INTO
SAT NT...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE
TO VERY CLOSELY MONITOR RADAR TRENDS...AND ALSO NEAR TERM FORECAST
GUIDANCE FROM THE RAP/HRRR...WHICH MAY GIVE SOME NEAR- TO SHORT-
TERM HINTS THAT PRECIP MAY BE TRENDING FARTHER N AND W. THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN IN VALLEYS THROUGH SAT...WITH SOME
SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY...ESP
ELEVATIONS GREATER THAN 1500 FT. THEN...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
DYNAMICAL COOLING CAN OCCUR...RAIN AND OR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS ALL ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT SAT
EVENING...AND PERHAPS EVEN IN VALLEY AREAS LATER SAT NT. CURRENT
GRIDDED DATABASE INCLUDES SOME MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF UP TO AN
INCH ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND
ALSO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...BY SUNRISE SUNDAY.
ALSO...UP TO ONE HALF INCH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AGAIN...THERE REMAINS A SMALL PROBABILITY
THAT GREATER AMTS COULD OCCUR...AT LEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LITCHFIELD CO IF
THE PRECIP TRENDS FARTHER WEST.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN VALLEYS FOR
SAT...THEN FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR SAT NT IN VALLEYS...WITH
POSSIBLY SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SAT AFTN INTO SAT NT...AND MAY GUST TO 25-30 MPH...ESP IN
SOME N/S ORIENTED VALLEYS.

SUN-MON...AFTER ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF SUN AM...WITH
CLEARING BY AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE WINDY AND COLD SUNDAY...WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN VALLEYS...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR
HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS MAY STILL GUST TO 35-45 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND THE TACONICS...AND
POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS...AND
25-35 MPH ELSEWHERE. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 40S IN
VALLEYS...EXCEPT POSSIBLY 45-50 IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH MAINLY 30S TO NEAR 40 FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLEAR
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS LATE SUN NT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH
THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE FALL SEASON...GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH
SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAX TEMPS ON MON
SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID
40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SUN NT-MON SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
CLEAR...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY CLOUDS COULD PASS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CATSKILLS LATE SUN NT/EARLY MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO START THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER FOR MON NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MIN TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE CHILLY FOR MON NIGHT WITH
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...BUT LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME RAIN SHOWERS
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...WITH MAINLY 40S ACROSS THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO BE
IN THE 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...COOLER AIR WILL POUR INTO
THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES TURNING COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW. HOWEVER...A CEILING
BETWEEN 3000 FEET AND 5000 FEET...WHICH HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AROUND
KPSF...SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AFTER 14Z...SOME SHOWERS COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH THE KPOU
AREA AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WINDS FROM THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT LESS
THAN 10 KT...THEN APPROACH 10 KT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31.0  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...TURNING
TO SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS
OF THE SEASON OVER US BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL








000
FXUS61 KBGM 312009
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
409 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR VICINITY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS. AS COLDER AIR
DESCENDS UPON THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES FOR SOME PARTS OF THE AREA WHILE DIMINISHING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
4 PM UPDATE...
STILL A STRIPE OF SUNSHINE FROM SCRANTON THROUGH DELHI FOR A TIME
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT REMAINDER OF AREA HAS INCREASING CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER LEVELS. IT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
INTO THIS EVENING. ACTUAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUITE SPOTTY
HOWEVER.

VERY SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS NOW DIGGING THROUGH WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...EN ROUTE TO CUTTING OFF UPPER LOW WHILE CROSSING SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...AND AT THE NC-SC COASTLINE BY 18Z SATURDAY.
500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE EXTREMELY ANOMALOUS...5 TO 6 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL IN THE CAROLINAS...YET ALSO FAR ENOUGH
REMOVED FROM OUR REGION TO HAVE ONLY PERIPHERAL IMPACT. WE WILL STILL
GET THE UPPER TROUGH AND GRADUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
CLOUDS...BUT LACK OF DYNAMICS ALOFT AND FOCUSING FEATURES NEAR THE
SURFACE WILL MAKE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY LIGHT AND
SPOTTY...WITH AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL ENHANCEMENT IN THE
POCONOS-WYOMING VALLEY AREAS DUE TO BRIEF EASTERLY JET AS LOW
DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT.

FOR TONIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF DIGGING TROUGH/CUTTING OFF
LOW WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN PA/NY...KEEPING SOME LIGHT SHOWER
CHANCES MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER TO WESTERN-CENTRAL
FINGER LAKES THIS EVENING. THEN OVERNIGHT...MINOR FRONTOGENESIS-
CONVERGENCE IN THE MID LEVELS OVER OUR REGION AS CYCLOGENESIS
ENSUES AT THE SURFACE WELL OFFSHORE THE MIDATLANTIC COAST. IN
EFFECT...A 700MB PSEUDO-FRONT WILL LOSE DEFINITION OVER OUR
AREA AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY.
A BETTER LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN WYOMING VALLEY TO POCONOS DURING BRIEF
JUXTAPOSITION OF TRANSITORY EASTERLY JET /ATLANTIC MOISTURE
CONTRIBUTION/ AND MID LEVEL LIFT 09Z-12Z SAT.

WITH EXCEPTION OF WYOMING VALLEY-POCONOS...OVERALL THOUGH LACK OF
JET SUPPORT...AND THE DIMINISHING TO EVENTUALLY ELIMINATION OF
ISENTROPIC UPLIFT...WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION
RATHER SPOTTY ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. COLD
AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS SATURDAY WILL ALSO BE
QUITE MINOR...AND NOT YET ENOUGH TO GENERATE LAKE RESPONSE.
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN NOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPEAR COLD ENOUGH
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR SNOW TO MIX IN EXCEPT PERHAPS HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN CATSKILLS /AND EVEN THAT IS IFFY-
SPOTTY/.

LOWS TONIGHT MID 30S TO NEAR 40...THEN TEMPERATURES NOT MOVING MUCH
ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
350 PM UPDATE...
DUE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL VERY GRADUALLY BACK NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHILE BEING PRETTY BRISK DUE TO THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEEP NOVA SCOTIA-BOUND LOW...AND THE
OHIO VALLEY HIGH. THIS WILL MEAN A VERY LIMITED FETCH FOR GREAT
LAKES MOISTURE...DESPITE COLD ENOUGH 850MB TEMPERATURES FOR A LAKE
RESPONSE /WELL BELOW ZERO CELSIUS/. THAT ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR
MASS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...DEWPOINTS CRASHING THROUGH THE
20S SUNDAY...WILL MEAN ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
AT BEST. BEFORE THAT...STILL SOME SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WHICH WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WHILE DIMINISHING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WHERE THEY OCCUR WILL BE MEAGER AND MAINLY LIMITED TO HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION AS WELL AS THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS.

CYCLONIC PRESSURE GRADIENT SUNDAY WILL PUSH GUSTS INTO 25-35 MPH
RANGE...WHICH ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S WILL FEEL QUITE COLD. DRYNESS OF AIR MASS WILL ALSO ALLOW
CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY FOR A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. LOWS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES MONDAY /UPPER 40S-LOW 50S/ DUE TO
WARM AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
WILL PROVIDE MILDER TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT SWINGING OUT OF ONTARIO AND THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

AFTER THE MILD START, TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MIDDAY
SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS FOR BGM AND ITH, WHERE MVFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MID MORNING.

SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LARGELY NON-RESTRICTIVE.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT...OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN-TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBUF 311942
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
342 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS THE VICINITY OF LAKE
ONTARIO TODAY. SHOWERS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DRAWS
CLOSER TO LAKE ERIE. BEHIND THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CHILLY
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIQUID...ALTHOUGH A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN SATURDAY NIGHT. A
WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THE SHARP SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN INDIANA IS STARTING TO CUT-OFF FROM THE NORTHERN JET
STREAM. AS THE OVERALL TROUGH INCHES CLOSER TO WESTERN NY THIS
AFTERNOON...A BAROCLINIC LEAF CAN BE SEEN EXTENDING FROM WEST
VIRGINIA ACROSS WESTERN PA INTO SOUTHWEST NY. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
ENHANCED AREA OF SHOWERS CO-LOCATED WITH THIS SATELLITE FEATURE.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER AT THIS HOUR...AS
EXPECTED...AND THIS WILL START THE TREND OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THIS EVENING FROM THIS INCREASING SYNOPTIC
LIFT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN ROCHESTER AND OSWEGO DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH MAINLY
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TOWARD WATERTOWN.

THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE SLOWLY EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY PASSING THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS TROUGH PASSAGE WILL HAVE TWO MAIN IMPACTS. FIRST...THE
STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL ACT TO FURTHER FOCUS SOME PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. SECONDLY...WINDS WILL INCREASE WHILE SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THEN THE NORTH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS WIND
SHIFT WILL FAVOR UPSLOPE FLOW INTO FORECAST AREA...AND IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HELP SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW
AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH AT ALL
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD...MOST LOCATIONS MAY NOT
SEE TEMPERATURES RISE MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES FROM THE MORNING TO
THE AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD START TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH IT WILL LINGER LONGEST IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION.
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR A BRIEF CHANGE OVER SNOW IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER BY SATURDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...IMPACTS WILL BE EXTREMELY MINIMAL AS TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET BELOW FREEZING BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS...BUT A
LITTLE SLUSH ON GRASSY SURFACES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY SATURDAY EVENING THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH OF -7C TO -8C WILL BE
CROSSING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BASIN AND NEW YORK STATE. WHILE
THIS IS SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO PRODUCE A LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE...THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS ARE DRYING SO LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LIMITED. A NORTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WIND WILL PROVIDE OROGRAPHIC
LIFT DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...SO WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY
POPS EARLY IN THE EVENING...DWINDLING TO CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE POPS
LATER IN THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS DRYING AND WARMING ALOFT LOWER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE EFFECT. LOW TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ALONG AND WEST OF THE GENESEE
VALLEY...THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES TO
THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE AND THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...BRINGING FAIR
WEATHER AND GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES. CLOUDS SHOULD LAST MUCH OF THE
DAY ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS WITH COOL AIR ALOFT RESULTING IN LAKE
ENHANCED STRATUS. SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR THE LAKES AND IN WESTERN SECTIONS. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL CHILLY...ONLY BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
ALONG THE GENESEE VALLEY...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE LAKE ERIE
SHORE AND THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES REGION.

THE AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ON THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY...MOVING EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING
WARMING TO THE AREA WITH HIGH TEMPS 40S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THE
LOW 50S ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD STAY
ABOVE FREEZING WITH MOST LOCATIONS FALLING TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
30S INLAND AND THE LOWER TO MID 40S ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH A SURFACE AND UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE UPPER PLAINS
AND PRAIRIE PROVINCES TO SOUTHWESTERN HUDSON BAY...AN OCCLUSION
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW TO A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD
NEW YORK STATE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING A SHEARING
OF THE FRONT DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...AND ALTHOUGH POPS ARE IN THE
LIKELY RANGE...QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW...ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH.

GFS AND ECMWF SHOW GREATEST DIFFERENCES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. BY 00Z FRIDAY...GFS DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN QUEBEC TO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FOR THE SAME TIMEFRAME...ECMWF HAS DEVELOPED A NEGATIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH FROM JUST EAST OF JAME BAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BOTH
MODEL SOLUTIONS PROVIDE CHANCE POPS WED THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH THE
HIGHER POPS DURING THE DAY THU. GFS BRINGS IN A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHEREAS ECMWF BRINGS THE COLDER AIR IN ACROSS
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. WILL SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE AND HAVE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH THE CHANCE OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

AFTER A WARMING TREND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THE SECOND
HALF WILL EXPERIENCE A DOWNWARD TREND...FROM HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S ON WEDNESDAY TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES...KIAG/KBUF/KJHW/KROC...AND SLOWLY
SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THESE SHOWERS...MAINLY DUE TO LOWERED CIGS. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE
MORE ISOLATED NEAR KART.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. COOLER AIR
FLOWING BEHIND THIS LOW PRESSURE COMBINED WITH THE NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL LIKELY FORM MVFR AND LATER IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. CLIMATOLOGY PLACES IFR AT BETTER THAN 50 PERCENT FOR
KJHW...WHILE THE NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO MAY ALSO BRING IFR
CIGS FOR KROC/KIAG/KBUF...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AT KJHW.

FURTHER...CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW AT KJHW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
LOW...AS PRECIPITATION WILL BE TAPERING OFF BY THE TIME THE AIR IS
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR WITH SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND
FLURRIES.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE THIS
WEEKEND...AND NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND THIS LOW WILL INCREASE FIRST ON
LAKE ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY MORNING ON LAKE ERIE.

IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS...WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 4 TO 7 FEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. WHILE WAVES WILL BE GREATEST ON THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND ALSO THE WESTERN END OF LAKE
ERIE...HAVE ISSUED SCA FOR THE ENTIRE LAKE ONTARIO REGION...AND
THE EASTERN HALF OF LAKE ERIE AS WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD TOP SCA
THRESHOLDS AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND. THESE NORTHEASTERLY TO LATER THIS
WEEKEND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BRING SCA CONDITIONS
TO THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY
         FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 1 AM
         EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST
         MONDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT TO 1 AM EST
         MONDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...CHURCH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 311934
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
334 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS THE VICINITY OF LAKE
ONTARIO TODAY. SHOWERS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DRAWS
CLOSER TO LAKE ERIE. BEHIND THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CHILLY
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIQUID...ALTHOUGH A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN SATURDAY NIGHT. A
WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THE SHARP SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN INDIANA IS STARTING TO CUT-OFF FROM THE NORTHERN JET
STREAM. AS THE OVERALL TROUGH INCHES CLOSER TO WESTERN NY THIS
AFTERNOON...A BAROCLINIC LEAF CAN BE SEEN EXTENDING FROM WEST
VIRGINIA ACROSS WESTERN PA INTO SOUTHWEST NY. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
ENHANCED AREA OF SHOWERS CO-LOCATED WITH THIS SATELLITE FEATURE.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER AT THIS HOUR...AS
EXPECTED...AND THIS WILL START THE TREND OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THIS EVENING FROM THIS INCREASING SYNOPTIC
LIFT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN ROCHESTER AND OSWEGO DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH MAINLY
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TOWARD WATERTOWN.

THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE SLOWLY EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY PASSING THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS TROUGH PASSAGE WILL HAVE TWO MAIN IMPACTS. FIRST...THE
STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL ACT TO FURTHER FOCUS SOME PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. SECONDLY...WINDS WILL INCREASE WHILE SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THEN THE NORTH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS WIND
SHIFT WILL FAVOR UPSLOPE FLOW INTO FORECAST AREA...AND IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HELP SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW
AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH AT ALL
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD...MOST LOCATIONS MAY NOT
SEE TEMPERATURES RISE MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES FROM THE MORNING TO
THE AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD START TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH IT WILL LINGER LONGEST IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION.
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR A BRIEF CHANGE OVER SNOW IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER BY SATURDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...IMPACTS WILL BE EXTREMELY MINIMAL AS TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET BELOW FREEZING BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS...BUT A
LITTLE SLUSH ON GRASSY SURFACES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEEKEND WILL START OFF CHILLY AND WET AS A COMPLEX LOW DEVELOPS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
ONLY HAVE A SMALL IMPACT ON OUR REGION WITH AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL DRIVE OUR
WEATHER ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW...BUT 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
COOL FROM WEST TO EAST. THE NAM/SREF TEND TO BE WARMER THAN GFS/RGEM
GUIDANCE...BUT USING A CONSENSUS 850MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO
-3C TO -5C SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO MIX
WITH SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN WESTERN
AREAS AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE BEST LIFT WILL BE BELOW
700MB...PRIMARILY FROM UPSLOPING AND MODEST LAKE ENHANCEMENT. WITH
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ANY ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
SATURDAY WOULD BE LIGHT AND CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR FORECAST TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM
CENTRAL CANADA. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL...WITH
LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE KEEPING THE SURFACE TO
700MB COLUMN MOIST. HOWEVER...THE DRY AIR ALOFT WILL HINDER SNOW
WITH MOST OF THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE DRY. IT MAY BE JUST COOL
ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS...OR PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AS DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ACROSS
THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS WHERE THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHTLY LONGER FETCH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND MORE MOISTURE FROM THE
COASTAL LOW. AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO BUILD IN...LINGERING
PRECIPITATION SHOULD FIZZLE OUT ON SUNDAY...EVOLVING INTO
LAKE-INDUCED STRATUS. IT STILL APPEARS ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE VERY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING IN MOST AREAS
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY
RESULT IN A FEW ICY SPOTS SATURDAY NIGHT IF THERE ARE ANY WET SPOTS
FROM PRECIPITATION EARLIER IN THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...BRINGING FAIR
WEATHER AND GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES. CLOUDS SHOULD LAST MUCH OF THE
DAY ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS WITH COOL AIR ALOFT RESULTING IN LAKE
ENHANCED STRATUS. SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR THE LAKES AND IN WESTERN SECTIONS. HIGHS WILL CHILLY...ONLY BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...WITH FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. FLOW BACKING TO
THE SOUTHWEST WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...PUSHING TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE THE 50 DEGREE MARK MONDAY
AND BY TUESDAY MANY AREAS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS
A 60 DEGREE READING OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE TYPICALLY
WARMER SPOTS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE FINGER LAKES.
ALTHOUGH THE WARM ADVECTION WILL PUT AN END TO ANY LAKE EFFECT CLOUD
COVER...THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO GO
AROUND MONDAY AND TUESDAY COURTESY OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.

AFTER A DRY START TO THE WEEK...WE WILL SEE SHOWERS CREEP BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
LOW LIFT FROM WESTERN ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. AS THE LOW
TRACKS INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC...IT WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN WESTERN AREAS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE FRONTOGENETIC AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND RETURN
FLOW SUPPLYING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER LAKES
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

00Z/12Z MODEL ECMWF/GFS/GGEM GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT FOR THE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TIMEFRAME...WITH SOME GUIDANCE DEVELOPING A
FRONTAL WAVE WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE FORECASTING A MORE PROGRESSIVE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES...WILL JUST COVER THE
PERIOD WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING AND USE A MULTI-MODEL
BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES WHICH IS ALSO PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES...KIAG/KBUF/KJHW/KROC...AND SLOWLY
SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THESE SHOWERS...MAINLY DUE TO LOWERED CIGS. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE
MORE ISOLATED NEAR KART.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. COOLER AIR
FLOWING BEHIND THIS LOW PRESSURE COMBINED WITH THE NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL LIKELY FORM MVFR AND LATER IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. CLIMATOLOGY PLACES IFR AT BETTER THAN 50 PERCENT FOR
KJHW...WHILE THE NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO MAY ALSO BRING IFR
CIGS FOR KROC/KIAG/KBUF...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AT KJHW.

FURTHER...CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW AT KJHW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
LOW...AS PRECIPITATION WILL BE TAPERING OFF BY THE TIME THE AIR IS
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR WITH SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND
FLURRIES.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE THIS
WEEKEND...AND NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND THIS LOW WILL INCREASE FIRST ON
LAKE ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY MORNING ON LAKE ERIE.

IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS...WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 4 TO 7 FEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. WHILE WAVES WILL BE GREATEST ON THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND ALSO THE WESTERN END OF LAKE
ERIE...HAVE ISSUED SCA FOR THE ENTIRE LAKE ONTARIO REGION...AND
THE EASTERN HALF OF LAKE ERIE AS WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD TOP SCA
THRESHOLDS AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND. THESE NORTHEASTERLY TO LATER THIS
WEEKEND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BRING SCA CONDITIONS
TO THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY
         FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 1 AM
         EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST
         MONDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT TO 1 AM EST
         MONDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...CHURCH









000
FXUS61 KOKX 311926
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
326 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW TRACKS TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY. WINDY AND COOL ON SUNDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE NOR`EASTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSES ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY
BREEZY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS REMAINS WELL
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. STRONG SHORTWAVE/VORT
DIVES SEWD AND ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE.

WITH SOME UPPER SUPPORT...12Z MODEL SUITE...INCLUDING HRRR SEEM
TO FOCUS RAIN DEVELOPMENT ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS NW
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW. AS ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS TONIGHT WITH
STRENGTHENING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE...WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES NEAR THE COAST AND TOWARD
NEW JERSEY.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND TO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CLOSED DEEP UPPER LOW PIVOTS EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. AT THE SURFACE...A COUPLE OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE INITIAL LOW MOVES
JUST E OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AS THE NEXT LOW FOLLOWS ABOUT 12
HOURS LATER.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE
WEST AND THESE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL RESULT
IN WINDY CONDITIONS.

NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE SATURDAY...THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...FEEL WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS WILL NOT BE MET DURING THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH EASTERN LOCATIONS COULD COME CLOSE.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR 40 KT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED SAT NIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT TOO HIGH...AND IT IS A THIRD PERIOD EVENT. WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY WIND RELATED HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

CSTL LOCATIONS WILL OBSERVE PERIODS OF RAIN...WITH PROBABILITIES
TAPERING DOWNWARD AS YOU HEAD INLAND. WITH CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN CHILLY. EXPECT TEMPS UPPER 40S TO AROUND
50.

COLD AIR ADVECTION SAT NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 30S
MANY LOCATIONS...EXCEPT AROUND 40 NEAR THE COAST.

RAIN TAPERS OFF. A FEW SNOW FLAKES ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN. IN FACT...A FEW SREF MEMBERS
OUTPUT MEASURABLE SNOW. HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR PRECIP TO
END BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE. WINDY FOR SUNDAY AS SFC LOW DEPARTS
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOOKING AT 09Z SREF AND VARIOUS 12Z
MODEL SOUNDINGS...APPEARS WE`RE SHORT OF 40 KT WIND GUST CRITERIA
FOR ADVISORY...BUT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE 27 KT SUSTAIN CRITERIA IN
PLACES...ESPECIALLY AROUND NYC.

CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING COULD GENERATE A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY...BUT HAVE
NOT INCLUDED THIS IN THE FCST AS NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANCE. DO NOTE THAT THERE ARE 3 MEMBERS IN THE 09Z SREF THAT
DO GENERATE MEASURABLE SNOW - SO IT`S SOMETHING TO MONITOR. MAX
TEMPS CLOSE TO 12Z MOS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S AND CONSISTENT
WITH THE 00Z ENSEMBLE EC/GEFS MOS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE START OF THE WEEK WITH SLOW
MODERATION OF TEMPS.

COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES EXPECTED SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY AS NEXT SHORT WAVE DIGS IN. POPS REMAIN LOW FOR THIS EVENT
AS TIMING REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN AND OVERALL PCPN APPEARS LIGHT.
12Z GEFS SUPPORTS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AS PATTERN IS BECOMING
NON-LINEAR. NOTE THAT MORE GEFS MEMBERS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF THE
FASTER/PROGRESSIVE 12Z ECMWF...THUS HAVE KEPT FRIDAY DRY WITH
COOLER/NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS TO
THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY AND TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CIGS AROUND 5000 FT...LOWERING
TO 3500-4000 FT. LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS FROM EAST TO WEST THIS
EVENING...AND CONDS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH MVFR CONDS. CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP TO IFR
SOMETIME FROM 12Z-18Z SATURDAY IN HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS.

NE WINDS 8-12 KT THIS EVENING WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH 20-25
KT GUSTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND THEN WINDS INCREASE FURTHER
TO 20-25 KT WITH 25-30 KT GUSTS AFTER 15Z SATURDAY. WINDS
GRADUALLY BACK TO THE NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY.

EXCEPTION WILL BE KSWF...WHERE PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT AND CONDS
OCCASIONALLY DROPPING TO MVFR. WINDS WILL AVERAGE 8-12 KT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KT LATE SATURDAY.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE FROM 00-02Z SATURDAY IN
-RA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH 07Z SATURDAY.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE FROM 00-02Z SATURDAY IN
-RA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH 07Z SATURDAY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE FROM 01-03Z SATURDAY IN
-RA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH 07Z SATURDAY.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE FROM 01-03Z SATURDAY IN
-RA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH 07Z SATURDAY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE FROM 01-03Z SATURDAY IN
-RA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH 07Z SATURDAY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 01Z SATURDAY IN
-RA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY...MVFR CONDS IN RA. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT...BACKING TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR. NORTH WINDS AROUND 20 KT
WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KT WITH 30-40 KT GUSTS.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT.
.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR DURING THE DAY...CONDS LOWERING TO MVFR IN -RA AT
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES AS IT
TRACKS SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS. THE WATERS REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE DAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT.

ROUGH SEAS PER WAVEWATCH SEEM QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED
WINDS.

GALES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. WINDS START TO DIMINISH AT NIGHT. BY MONDAY
MORNING...ALL WATERS SHOULD BE BELOW GALE FORCE GUSTS...HOWEVER SCA
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL ACROSS THE OCEAN AND EASTERN WATERS
THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL
LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO REACH ALL OF THE WATERS
WHEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE FLOW
BACKS TO WSW ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUES SUCH ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING. THEN MORE OF A STEADY LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN IS FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RAIN TAPERS
OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.

STILL EXPECT TOTAL RAINFALL TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT TO RANGE  FROM
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER ORANGE COUNTY AND INTERIOR LOCALES
TO A HALF AN INCH...OR POSSIBLY UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
OVER SE CT/E SUFFOLK COUNTY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED DURATION OF
PRECIPITATION OF 24 HOURS...NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS
ANTICIPATED FROM THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A STRONG NE FLOW...A FEW LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH COASTAL
FLOODING BENCHMARKS AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
PORTIONS OF NY HARBOR (SANDY HOOK VICINITY)...THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS
OF LONG ISLAND AND WESTERN LI SOUND WOULD BE THE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE
AREAS. PECONIC BAY MAY COME CLOSE IN SPOTS AS WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-350-353-355.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...TONGUE
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...TONGUE/PW
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW








000
FXUS61 KBTV 311925
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
325 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
TRANSLATE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST LATE
TONIGHT. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD LATE SATURDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE AND CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL SEE JUST SOME FRINGE EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT...AND SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTH
WINDS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT FRIDAY...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN PLACE. SATELLITE AND LATEST NAM/RAP MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. ONLY CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION/RAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED NEAR WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO/SERN ONTARIO TO JUST NORTH OF
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. HAVE CARRIED 20-30 POPS IN THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. NELY WINDS FROM NEAR MONTREAL DOWN THE VALLEY
RESULTING IN SOME DRY ADVECTION AT LOW- LEVELS IN THIS AREA...SO
ANY QPF POTENTIAL WILL BE LIGHT (JUST A FEW HUNDRETHS).
ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT N-NE. TEMPERATURES THIS
EVENING WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE LOWER 40S...WITH EARLY AM LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY MORNING
WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NEWD TO NEAR OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N
70W BENCHMARK BY LATE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE
OVERCAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT OTHERWISE WE/LL ONLY
EXPERIENCE FRINGE PRECIPITATION AFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH JUST SOME LIGHT RAIN/HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AFFECTING THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS
VERMONT...AND MOSTLY NOT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. POPS RANGE
FROM 30-40 PERCENT AND ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SHOULD ONLY BE
A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL (OR A DUSTING OF SNOW AT
THE SUMMITS) THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND 32-34F AT
THE SUMMITS ABOVE 3000 FEET.

THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NEWD THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH AN INCREASING NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED NORTH
WINDS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE NORTH WINDS OF 10-15 MPH THRU THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AROUND DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH OR
SO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION MOST OVER
LOCATIONS. IF LOW TRACK IS A BIT FURTHER WEST (SIMILAR TO 12Z
GFS)...A DUSTING TO 1" IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN VT VALLEYS DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIFORM GIVEN
CLOUDY/WINDY ENVIRONMENT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

BRISK NORTH WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH DEVELOPMENT OF
PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. COMBINED WITH MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH MUCH OF THE
DAY...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH POSSIBLE. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS NERN VT AS SURFACE LOW DEPARTS NEWD
ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY AND
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOOKING FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT FRIDAY...12Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO BE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH 00Z RUNS AND AMONG THE GFS/EURO MEMBERS --
AT LEAST THRU WEDNESDAY. DEVIATIONS GET LARGER FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVERALL THE FORECAST HASN`T CHANGED MUCH. LOOKS PRETTY
QUIET MONDAY & TUESDAY AND THEN GETTING UNSETTLED FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. DAILY SPECIFICS BELOW...

MONDAY:
THE WEEKEND STORM WILL BE FAR TO THE EAST, WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOWLY RELAXING AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST, BUT STILL ENOUGH TO MAKE
FOR A SEMI-BREEZY DAY -- PERHAPS SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20MPH.
GUIDANCE ALL SIMILAR, SO A BLEND LOOKS THE BEST WAY TO GO. SHOULD
BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS AND EVEN LESS IN THE WAY OF ANY
THREAT OF RAIN/SNOW (SO 0% POP IS GOOD). 925MB TEMPERATURES START
OFF CHILLY (-5C OR SO) BUT SLOWLY WARM TOWARD -1C BY THE
AFTERNOON. WHAT THAT MEANS AT THE SURFACE ARE TEMPERATURES ONLY IN
THE LOW 40S (UPPER 30S HIGHER ELEVATIONS).

MONDAY NIGHT:
FLOW STARTS TO TURN SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER AND
EAST OF HERE. AS WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST, WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME
MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION START TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE TRICKY
PART. THINK COLDEST READINGS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM
WITH LOW/MID 20S EXPECTED WITH MORE TIME WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER, IF THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE CLOUDS IS A FEW HOURS
DIFFERENT, IT COULD MEAN LOWS COULD BE COLDER OR WARMER. BOTTOM
LINE, WENT A BIT ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE, BUT THINGS ARE
UNCERTAIN.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT:
WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. 925MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 8C BY
LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
UNDER PERFECT CONDITIONS, BUT CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME RAIN SHOWERS
WILL KEEP THAT FROM HAPPENING. 50S (THOUGH A BIT ABOVE NORMAL)
WILL DO IT. DURING THE DAY A FRONT SLOWLY SAGS TOWARD THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST, HOWEVER THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MEANS THAT
ULTIMATELY THE FRONT WILL PULL UP STATIONARY AND START TO
DISSIPATE IN PLACE. SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. SO LOW CHANCES IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE
DAY, BUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH SO
CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF
BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS BEING ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTION WITH
POPS AROUND 60% THERE BUT TRENDING DOWN TO <30% IN SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS OF VERMONT. GOOD SUPPORT FOR THE MODELS FOR THIS SORT OF
ORIENTATION OF RAIN CHANCES THANKS TO A STALLED FRONT JUST
NORTH/WEST OF HERE. CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING MUCH. LOTS OF 40S AND A FEW UPPER 30S.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY:
LOOKS LIKE A SOMEWHAT DREAY COUPLE OF DAYS. SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH
EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVES IS IN PLACE. WITH THE STALLED FRONT,
WE`LL SEE SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN BREAK OUT AS THE WEAK
DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WON`T VARY MUCH. STUCK
WITH A MODEL BLEND, BUT EVEN THAT MAY BE TOO WARM DURING THE DAY
AND TOO COOL AT NIGHT. BASICALLY LOW 50S IN THE DAY, 40S AT NIGHT.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY:
MODELS DIVERGE MORE BY THIS POINT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SAY WE
WILL HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFY SOME AND CAUSE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS. DIFFERENCES ARE WITH WHERE THIS ALL HAPPENS. GFS IS
FARTHER WEST WITH TROUGH AND CYCLOGENESIS AND SLOWER WITH THE
PATTERN EVOLUTION. IT WOULD KEEP US IN A WARMER ENVIRONMENT WITH
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT TRANSITIONING TO SNOW
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH PASSES BY AND COLDER AIR
COMES IN. 12Z ECMWF HAS ALL OF THIS HAPPENING QUICKLY THURSDAY
NIGHT SUCH THAT COLDER AIR IS MOVING IN BY FRIDAY MORNING
RESULTING IN A MORE CHANCE OF WHITE STUFF, EVEN AT LOW ELEVATIONS.
AS A COMPARISON, GFS HAS 850MB TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 0C AS OF 12Z
FRIDAY -- MEANWHILE THE ECMWF IS ALREADY DOWN TO -8 TO -10C AT
THAT SAME TIME.

THIS FAR OUT, JUST STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND WHICH RESULTS IN SOME
LIGHT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE ROUGHLY 2000FT AND RAIN SHOWERS
BELOW THAT AS HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE ONLY IN THE 40S.

I`M SURE THIS FORECAST WILL CHANGE SEVERAL MORE TIMES BETWEEN NOW
AND THEN. THAT`S JUST THE WAY THINGS WORK....

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...PRETTY MUCH VFR ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THICKER/MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ARE JUST OFF TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION AS A STORM SYSTEM IS IN THE
PROCESS OF ORGANIZING. LIGHT RAIN IS OCCURRING MORE TOWARDS LAKE
ONTARIO AND POINTS WEST FROM THERE, AND THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS
AS TO HOW FAR TO THE EAST THE RAIN WILL GET AND HOW FAST THAT WILL
HAPPEN. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE ANSWERS ARE NOT ALL THAT MUCH
AND NOT ALL THAT FAST, AS THE ORGANIZING STORM WILL TAKE A PATH
KEEPING IT FAR SOUTH OF THE REGION. DO THINK SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING (PROBABLY AFTER 03Z).
LIGHT RAIN COULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW AS WELL AT MSS AND
SLK. WITH ANY RAIN/SNOW, WE SHOULD SEE MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
DURING SATURDAY MORNING, WE EXPECT ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD
BE MINIMAL. HAVE JUST INCLUDED "VCSH" IN MOST TAFS FOR THAT.
SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST WILL BE STRENGTHENING SOME
ON SATURDAY PRIMARILY IN THE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
18Z SAT-00Z MON: VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR WITH A FEW RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GUSTING IN THE
25-35KT RANGE ON SUNDAY.

00Z MON-12Z TUE: VFR

12Z TUE ONWARD: MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND LOWER CEILINGS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE KCXX-88D DOPPLER RADAR IN
COLCHESTER VERMONT IS OUT OF SERVICE AT THIS TIME. ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIANS HAVE CHECKED THE RADAR AND FOUND A PROBLEM WITH HIGH
VOLTAGE ARCING. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS ARE AT THE RADAR SITE THIS
MORNING ATTEMPTING REPAIRS. OWING TO THE COMPLEX NATURE OF THE
PROBLEM...IT APPEARS THE EARLIEST RETURN TO SERVICE WILL BE
SOMETIME ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 311922
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
322 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND THEN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...AND THEN WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EARLY SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND BE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1028 AM EDT FRIDAY...RATHER TRANQUIL HALLOWEEN DAY WITH
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
P-GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S REGIONWIDE...OR 2-4 DEGREES BELOW
THE LATE OCTOBER AVERAGE. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH...WHICH EXTENDS NEWD ACROSS SERN ONTARIO
TO NEAR/JUST WEST OF THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. WILL SEE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR/ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH. OTHERWISE...REMAINING
DRY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH JUST A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS EVENING WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE
LOWER 40S WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AT 5 MPH OR LESS...EXCEPT
LOCALLY NE 5-10 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. JUST A
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE (20-30 PERCENT) OF SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY...MAINLY AFFECTING ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 456 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE BEST FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WHERE AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
AND WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY. A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN BE JUST EAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THEN ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOWEVER...AS LOW PRESSURE
AREA MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE COAST...EXPECTING A BETTER CHANCE FOR
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING
HEAVIER QPF WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. HAVE GONE ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND ALSO AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER. SUNDAY
WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT FRIDAY...12Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO BE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH 00Z RUNS AND AMONG THE GFS/EURO MEMBERS --
AT LEAST THRU WEDNESDAY. DEVIATIONS GET LARGER FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVERALL THE FORECAST HASN`T CHANGED MUCH. LOOKS PRETTY
QUIET MONDAY & TUESDAY AND THEN GETTING UNSETTLED FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. DAILY SPECIFICS BELOW...

MONDAY:
THE WEEKEND STORM WILL BE FAR TO THE EAST, WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOWLY RELAXING AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST, BUT STILL ENOUGH TO MAKE
FOR A SEMI-BREEZY DAY -- PERHAPS SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20MPH.
GUIDANCE ALL SIMILAR, SO A BLEND LOOKS THE BEST WAY TO GO. SHOULD
BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS AND EVEN LESS IN THE WAY OF ANY
THREAT OF RAIN/SNOW (SO 0% POP IS GOOD). 925MB TEMPERATURES START
OFF CHILLY (-5C OR SO) BUT SLOWLY WARM TOWARD -1C BY THE
AFTERNOON. WHAT THAT MEANS AT THE SURFACE ARE TEMPERATURES ONLY IN
THE LOW 40S (UPPER 30S HIGHER ELEVATIONS).

MONDAY NIGHT:
FLOW STARTS TO TURN SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER AND
EAST OF HERE. AS WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST, WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME
MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION START TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE TRICKY
PART. THINK COLDEST READINGS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM
WITH LOW/MID 20S EXPECTED WITH MORE TIME WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER, IF THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE CLOUDS IS A FEW HOURS
DIFFERENT, IT COULD MEAN LOWS COULD BE COLDER OR WARMER. BOTTOM
LINE, WENT A BIT ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE, BUT THINGS ARE
UNCERTAIN.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT:
WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. 925MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 8C BY
LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
UNDER PERFECT CONDITIONS, BUT CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME RAIN SHOWERS
WILL KEEP THAT FROM HAPPENING. 50S (THOUGH A BIT ABOVE NORMAL)
WILL DO IT. DURING THE DAY A FRONT SLOWLY SAGS TOWARD THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST, HOWEVER THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MEANS THAT
ULTIMATELY THE FRONT WILL PULL UP STATIONARY AND START TO
DISSIPATE IN PLACE. SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSSED ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. SO LOW CHANCES IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE
DAY, BUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH SO
CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA
OF BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS BEING ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTION
WITH POPS AROUND 60% THERE BUT TRENDING DOWN TO <30% IN SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS OF VERMONT. GOOD SUPPORT FOR THE MODELS FOR THIS SORT OF
ORIENTATION OF RAIN CHANCES THANKS TO A STALLED FRONT JUST
NORTH/WEST OF HERE. CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING MUCH. LOTS OF 40S AND A FEW UPPER 30S.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY:
LOOKS LIKE A SOMEWHAT DREAY COUPLE OF DAYS. SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH
EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVES IS IN PLACE. WITH THE STALLED FRONT,
WE`LL SEE SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN BREAK OUT AS THE WEAK
DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WON`T VARY MUCH. STUCK
WITH A MODEL BLEND, BUT EVEN THAT MAY BE TOO WARM DURING THE DAY
AND TOO COOL AT NIGHT. BASICALLY LOW 50S IN THE DAY, 40S AT NIGHT.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY:
MODELS DIVERGE MORE BY THIS POINT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SAY WE
WILL HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFY SOME AND CAUSE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS. DIFFERENCES ARE WITH WHERE THIS ALL HAPPENS. GFS IS
FARTHER WEST WITH TROUGH AND CYCLOGENEIS AND SLOWER WITH THE
PATTERN EVOLUTION. IT WOULD KEEP US IN A WARMER ENVIRONMENT WITH
SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH PASSES BY AND COLDER AIR COMES
IN. 12Z ECMWF HAS ALL OF THIS HAPPENING QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT
SUCH THAT COLDER AIR IS MOVING IN BY FRIDAY MORNING RESULTING IN A
MORE CHANCE OF WHITE STUFF, EVEN AT LOW ELEVATIONS. AS A
COMPARISON, GFS HAS 850MB TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 0C AS OF 12Z
FRIDAY -- MEANWHILE THE ECMWF IS ALREADY DOWN TO -8 TO -10C AT
THAT SAME TIME.

THIS FAR OUT, JUST STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND WHICH RESULTS IN SOME
LIGHT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE ROUGHLY 2000FT AND RAIN SHOWERS
BELOW THAT AS HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE ONLY IN THE 40S.

I`M SURE THIS FORECAST WILL CHANGE SEVERAL MORE TIMES BETWEEN NOW
AND THEN. THAT`S JUST THE WAY THINGS WORK....

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...PRETTY MUCH VFR ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THICKER/MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ARE JUST OFF TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION AS A STORM SYSTEM IS IN THE
PROCESS OF ORGANIZING. LIGHT RAIN IS OCCURRING MORE TOWARDS LAKE
ONTARIO AND POINTS WEST FROM THERE, AND THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS
AS TO HOW FAR TO THE EAST THE RAIN WILL GET AND HOW FAST THAT WILL
HAPPEN. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE ANSWERS ARE NOT ALL THAT MUCH
AND NOT ALL THAT FAST, AS THE ORGANIZING STORM WILL TAKE A PATH
KEEPING IT FAR SOUTH OF THE REGION. DO THINK SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING (PROBABLY AFTER 03Z).
LIGHT RAIN COULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW AS WELL AT MSS AND
SLK. WITH ANY RAIN/SNOW, WE SHOULD SEE MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
DURING SATURDAY MORNING, WE EXPECT ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPTATION
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD
BE MINIMAL. HAVE JUST INCLUDED "VCSH" IN MOST TAFS FOR THAT.
SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST WILL BE STRENGTHENING SOME
ON SATURDAY PRIMARILY IN THE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
18Z SAT-00Z MON: VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR WITH A FEW RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GUSTING IN THE
25-35KT RANGE ON SUNDAY.

00Z MON-12Z TUE: VFR

12Z TUE ONWARD: MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND LOWER CEILINGS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE KCXX-88D DOPPLER RADAR IN
COLCHESTER VERMONT IS OUT OF SERVICE AT THIS TIME. ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIANS HAVE CHECKED THE RADAR AND FOUND A PROBLEM WITH HIGH
VOLTAGE ARCING. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS ARE AT THE RADAR SITE THIS
MORNING ATTEMPTING REPAIRS. OWING TO THE COMPLEX NATURE OF THE
PROBLEM...IT APPEARS THE EARLIEST RETURN TO SERVICE WILL BE
SOMETIME ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBGM 311804
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
204 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY...BUT IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY. A CHILLY UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...BRINGING SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS. EVENTUALLY SNOW SHOWERS
WILL MIX IN FOR SOME PARTS OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY AS COOLER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES
AWAY BY LATER SUNDAY...DRIER WEATHER...WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES...SHOULD THEN BE THE RULE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
145 PM UPDATE...
STILL A STRIPE OF SUNSHINE FROM SCRANTON THROUGH DELHI FOR A TIME
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT REMAINDER OF AREA HAS INCREASING CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER LEVELS. IT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
INTO THIS EVENING. ACTUAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUITE SPOTTY
HOWEVER.

VERY SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS NOW DIGGING THROUGH WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...EN ROUTE TO CUTTING OFF UPPER LOW WHILE CROSSING SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...AND AT THE NC-SC COASTLINE BY 18Z SATURDAY.
500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE EXTREMELY ANOMALOUS...5 TO 6 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL IN THE CAROLINAS...YET ALSO FAR ENOUGH
REMOVED FROM OUR REGION TO HAVE ONLY PERIPHERAL IMPACT. WE WILL STILL
GET THE UPPER TROUGH AND GRADUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
CLOUDS...BUT LACK OF DYNAMICS ALOFT AND FOCUSING FEATURES NEAR THE
SURFACE WILL MAKE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY LIGHT AND
SPOTTY...WITH AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH.

FOR TONIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF DIGGING TROUGH/CUTTING OFF
LOW WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN PA/NY...KEEPING SOME LIGHT SHOWER
CHANCES MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER TO WESTERN-CENTRAL
FINGER LAKES THIS EVENING. THEN OVERNIGHT...MINOR FRONTOGENESIS-
CONVERGENCE IN THE MID LEVELS OVER OUR REGION AS CYCLOGENESIS
ENSUES AT THE SURFACE WELL OFFSHORE THE MIDATLANTIC COAST. IN
EFFECT...A 700MB PSEUDO-FRONT WILL LOSE DEFINITION OVER OUR
AREA AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY.

MEANWHILE LACK OF JET SUPPORT...AND THE DIMINISHING TO EVENTUALLY
ELIMINATION OF ISENTROPIC UPLIFT...WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SYNOPTIC
PRECIPITATION RATHER SPOTTY ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS SATURDAY
WILL ALSO BE QUITE MINOR...AND NOT YET ENOUGH TO GENERATE LAKE
RESPONSE. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN NOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPEAR COLD
ENOUGH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR SNOW TO MIX IN EXCEPT PERHAPS
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN CATSKILLS /AND EVEN THAT IS
IFFY-SPOTTY/.

LOWS TONIGHT MID 30S TO NEAR 40...THEN TEMPERATURES NOT MOVING MUCH
ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
440 AM EDT UPDATE...
BY SAT MORNING THE BASE OF THE UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE
OVER SC. THEN... BY 00Z SAT THE MAIN AXIS WILL BE OFF THE EASTERN
CONUS. THE MAIN FORCING WITH THE UPPR LOW WILL NOT IMPACT OUR
REGION... AND THE PATH OF THE UPPR LOW WILL KEEP THE COASTAL
SYSTEM WELL OUT OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER... THE UPPR BRANCH OF THE
POTENT UPPR LOW WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR THE SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA THRU SAT NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AS THE MAIN AXIS MOVES EAST COOLER AIR WILL START TO DRAIN INTO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. 850MB TEMPS WILL START AS
NEGATIVE ONE 12Z SATURDAY... FALL TO NEGATIVE THREE 00Z SUNDAY...
THEN FALL TO NEGATIVE EIGHT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO STRONG
CAA... ALL RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW BY SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL THEN SUPPORT SNOW GROWTH.

SATURDAY EVENING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS LOOK PLAUSIBLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF THE FINGER LAKES. THE
LONGEVITY OF THE FINGER LAKE BANDS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE MEAN
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND AND THE MOISTURE PROFILE RIGHT ABOVE THE SFC.

SUNDAY MORNING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP STARTS TO DROP OFF. UPSLOPE
INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. BUT DUE VERY DRY
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT... THE
CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS ARE SLIM. EXPECT FLURRIES AT
BEST. WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH
WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTY NEAR 30 MPH. THUS
WITH TEMPS ONLY INCREASING INTO THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S... SUN
AFTERNOON WILL BE RATHER CHILLY. SUNDAY EVENING WILL BR DRY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION,

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
WILL PROVIDE MILDER TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT SWINGING OUT OF ONTARIO AND THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

AFTER THE MILD START, TEMERATURES WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MIDDAY
SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS FOR BGM AND ITH, WHERE MVFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MID MORNING.

SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LARGELY NON-RESTRICTIVE.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT...OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN-TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBUF 311800
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS THE VICINITY OF LAKE
ONTARIO TODAY. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DRAWS CLOSER TOWARD LAKE ERIE. BEHIND THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIQUID...ALTHOUGH A FEW WET
SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARMING TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A STALLED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO IS HELPING TO
FOCUS SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN NIAGARA FRONTIER
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO SHOW SOME INITIAL
REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN NY AND JUST WEST OF BUFFALO ACROSS
CANADA. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRAWS
CLOSER...ENHANCING THE QG FORCING OVER LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN NY. THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL ALSO START TO SLOW DRIFT
BACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...FURTHER ADDING SOME LIFT
TO SUPPORT AND ENHANCE RAIN SHOWERS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING DISPLAYS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BASE OF A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DROP
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN US BY SATURDAY MORNING. ON THE 1.5 PV
SURFACE...A SPLIT IN THIS SHORTWAVE IS SEEN...WITH THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN EASTERN US...WHILE A DOWNWARD INTRUSION
OF ENERGY LINGERS OVER THE CANADIAN NIAGARA PENINSULA TONIGHT.

THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE THE SURFACE LOW
SOUTHEASTWARD...WITH THE WEAK LOW DROPPING TOWARDS THE WESTERN HALF
OF LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING AS LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS
FORMS ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE OVERNIGHT...WITH A SECONDARY LOW
DEEPENING. TRACKING THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL CENTER THE BETTER
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WE WILL FIND LIKELY SHOWERS REACHING WNY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS REMAINING
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. TOWARDS THE EAST...WHICH WILL
LARGELY REMAIN AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCES OF THE SURFACE LOW TODAY...
LOW CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLAY FOR SHOWERS...WITH ANY ACTIVITY
LARGELY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE LINGERING UPPER LEVEL PV INTRUSION/ENERGY ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR
ADDITIONAL LIFT OVERNIGHT. A STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST WIND AROUND
THIS SECONDARY...DEEPENING ATLANTIC COASTLINE LOW WILL FOCUS LOW
LEVEL MOIST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN END OF THE
LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE OVERNIGHT. THIS LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...COMBINED WITH LIFT ALOFT WILL BRING CATEGORICAL LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS TOWARDS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK ZONES LATER OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST THAT ALL FALLING PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WILL REMAIN AS LIQUID.

CLOUDS WILL REMAIN RATHER THICK THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...WHICH IN
ADDITION TO THE LOWERING SUN ANGLE WILL PROVIDE FOR A SMALL DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE. HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY BEST THEIR MORNING
TEMPERATURES BY 5-10 DEGREES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. A
FEW 50S ARE POSSIBLE SE OF LAKE ONTARIO. TONIGHT LOWS WILL DROP OFF
TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. WARMEST AREAS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY BE TO
THE SW OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE YET STILL WARM
LAKE ONTARIO WILL LIKELY KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEEKEND WILL START OFF CHILLY AND WET AS A COMPLEX LOW DEVELOPS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
ONLY HAVE A SMALL IMPACT ON OUR REGION WITH AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL DRIVE OUR
WEATHER ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW...BUT 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
COOL FROM WEST TO EAST. THE NAM/SREF TEND TO BE WARMER THAN GFS/RGEM
GUIDANCE...BUT USING A CONSENSUS 850MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO
-3C TO -5C SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO MIX
WITH SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN WESTERN
AREAS AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE BEST LIFT WILL BE BELOW
700MB...PRIMARILY FROM UPSLOPING AND MODEST LAKE ENHANCEMENT. WITH
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ANY ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
SATURDAY WOULD BE LIGHT AND CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR FORECAST TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM
CENTRAL CANADA. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL...WITH
LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE KEEPING THE SURFACE TO
700MB COLUMN MOIST. HOWEVER...THE DRY AIR ALOFT WILL HINDER SNOW
WITH MOST OF THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE DRY. IT MAY BE JUST COOL
ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS...OR PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AS DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ACROSS
THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS WHERE THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHTLY LONGER FETCH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND MORE MOISTURE FROM THE
COASTAL LOW. AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO BUILD IN...LINGERING
PRECIPITATION SHOULD FIZZLE OUT ON SUNDAY...EVOLVING INTO
LAKE-INDUCED STRATUS. IT STILL APPEARS ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE VERY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING IN MOST AREAS
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY
RESULT IN A FEW ICY SPOTS SATURDAY NIGHT IF THERE ARE ANY WET SPOTS
FROM PRECIPITATION EARLIER IN THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...BRINGING FAIR
WEATHER AND GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES. CLOUDS SHOULD LAST MUCH OF THE
DAY ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS WITH COOL AIR ALOFT RESULTING IN LAKE
ENHANCED STRATUS. SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR THE LAKES AND IN WESTERN SECTIONS. HIGHS WILL CHILLY...ONLY BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...WITH FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. FLOW BACKING TO
THE SOUTHWEST WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...PUSHING TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE THE 50 DEGREE MARK MONDAY
AND BY TUESDAY MANY AREAS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS
A 60 DEGREE READING OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE TYPICALLY
WARMER SPOTS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE FINGER LAKES.
ALTHOUGH THE WARM ADVECTION WILL PUT AN END TO ANY LAKE EFFECT CLOUD
COVER...THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO GO
AROUND MONDAY AND TUESDAY COURTESY OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.

AFTER A DRY START TO THE WEEK...WE WILL SEE SHOWERS CREEP BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
LOW LIFT FROM WESTERN ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. AS THE LOW
TRACKS INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC...IT WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN WESTERN AREAS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE FRONTOGENETIC AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND RETURN
FLOW SUPPLYING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER LAKES
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

00Z/12Z MODEL ECMWF/GFS/GGEM GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT FOR THE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TIMEFRAME...WITH SOME GUIDANCE DEVELOPING A
FRONTAL WAVE WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE FORECASTING A MORE PROGRESSIVE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES...WILL JUST COVER THE
PERIOD WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING AND USE A MULTI-MODEL
BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES WHICH IS ALSO PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE WESTERN TAF SITES...KIAG/KBUF/KJHW/KROC...THIS AFTERNOON AND
SLOWLY SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THESE SHOWERS...MAINLY DUE TO LOWERED CIGS. RAIN SHOWERS
SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED NEAR KART.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. COOLER AIR
FLOWING BEHIND THIS LOW PRESSURE COMBINED WITH THE NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL LIKELY FORM MVFR AND LATER IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. CLIMATOLOGY PLACES IFR AT BETTER THAN 50 PERCENT FOR
KJHW...WHILE THE NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO MAY ALSO BRING IFR
CIGS FOR KROC/KIAG/KBUF...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AT KJHW.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR WITH SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND
FLURRIES.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN
END OF LAKE ERIE TODAY WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS TO THE LAKES.

A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE
THIS WEEKEND...AND NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND THIS LOW WILL INCREASE
FIRST ON LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SATURDAY MORNING ON LAKE
ERIE.

IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS...WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 4 TO 7 FEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. WHILE WAVES WILL BE GREATEST ON THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND ALSO THE WESTERN END OF LAKE
ERIE...HAVE ISSUED SCA FOR THE ENTIRE LAKE ONTARIO REGION...AND
THE EASTERN HALF OF LAKE ERIE AS WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD TOP SCA
THRESHOLDS AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND. THESE NORTHEASTERLY TO LATER THIS
WEEKEND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BRING SCA CONDITIONS
TO THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY
         FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 1 AM
         EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST
         MONDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT TO 1 AM EST
         MONDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/WOOD
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 311746
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
146 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND THEN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...AND THEN WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EARLY SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND BE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1028 AM EDT FRIDAY...RATHER TRANQUIL HALLOWEEN DAY WITH
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
P-GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S REGIONWIDE...OR 2-4 DEGREES BELOW
THE LATE OCTOBER AVERAGE. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH...WHICH EXTENDS NEWD ACROSS SERN ONTARIO
TO NEAR/JUST WEST OF THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. WILL SEE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR/ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH. OTHERWISE...REMAINING
DRY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH JUST A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS EVENING WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE
LOWER 40S WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AT 5 MPH OR LESS...EXCEPT
LOCALLY NE 5-10 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. JUST A
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE (20-30 PERCENT) OF SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY...MAINLY AFFECTING ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 456 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE BEST FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WHERE AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
AND WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY. A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN BE JUST EAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THEN ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOWEVER...AS LOW PRESSURE
AREA MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE COAST...EXPECTING A BETTER CHANCE FOR
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING
HEAVIER QPF WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. HAVE GONE ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND ALSO AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER. SUNDAY
WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT FRIDAY...AN ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WX PATTERN
ANTICIPATED ACRS THE NE CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. LARGE SCALE
PATTERN SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY LATE MONDAY...WITH BUILDING HGHTS FOR
MIDWEEK...BEFORE NEXT TROF DEVELOPS BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
OVERALL...GOOD AGREEMENT BTWN 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND LATEST ENSEMBLE
DATA ON SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
OF SFC FEATURES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE 20S
AND 30S...WITH COLDEST READING ACRS THE NEK OF VT. BY MONDAY...SFC
HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH A DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW AND LLVL WAA. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CLIMB BTWN -1C NEK
TO +1C SLV BY 00Z TUES...DEEP DRY LAYER ACRS OUR CWA. THESE TEMPS
WL RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO L50S ON MONDAY...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

TUES/WEDS...LLVL WAA CONTS INTO TUES WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARMING ANOTHER 3 TO 4 DEGREES WITH VALUES BTWN 3C AND 5C BY 00Z
WEDS...UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS. THESE WARM TEMPS WL
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE U40S MTNS TO MID 50S VALLEYS ON
TUES...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST.
ANOTHER VERY WARM NIGHT IS EXPECT ON TUES NIGHT...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE U30S MTNS TO
MID/UPPER 40S VALLEYS. BY WEDS WEAKENING SFC COLD FRNT AND
ASSOCIATED NARROW RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB RH MOVES ACRS OUR CWA. IN
ADDITION..WEAK ELONGATED 5H VORT IS ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY...SO
HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION LOW LIKELY POPS ACRS NORTHERN NY AND CHC
POPS ACRS THE CPV AND VT. GIVEN THE SYSTEM IS FALLING APART AND
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED...QPF WL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY <.10".
THERMAL PROFILES ARE WELL ABOVE 0C ON TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS...WITH
1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES ABOVE 550DM...SO EXPECT ALL
RAIN...EVEN ABOVE 4000 FT. WEAK LLVL CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND 1ST
BOUNDARY ON WEDS AFTN INTO THURS WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS FALLING
BLW 0C AGAIN...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS SHIFTED OFF THE COAST.

NEXT POTENT 5H VORT WL APPROACH OUR WESTERN CWA BY 12Z
THURS...ALONG WITH SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL AIR. THIS POCKET OF
ENERGY...COMBINED WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE PROFILES...WL
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP. ATTM...THERMAL PROFILES LOOK COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME MIX RAIN/SNOW ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN WITH MAINLY
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. THIS WL BE A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WITH
LIMITED SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE INTERACTION...SO QPF/SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT. ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AIR WL
FOLLOW ON THURS INTO FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BEFORE ANOTHER WARM UP
OCCURS OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS VERY CHANGEABLE PATTERN OVER THE
NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS WITH FEATURE RAPID WARM UPS AND COOL
DOWNS...WITH OVERALL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND NEAR NORMAL CHCS FOR
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...PRETTY MUCH VFR ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THICKER/MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ARE JUST OFF TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION AS A STORM SYSTEM IS IN THE
PROCESS OF ORGANIZING. LIGHT RAIN IS OCCURRING MORE TOWARDS LAKE
ONTARIO AND POINTS WEST FROM THERE, AND THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS
AS TO HOW FAR TO THE EAST THE RAIN WILL GET AND HOW FAST THAT WILL
HAPPEN. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE ANSWERS ARE NOT ALL THAT MUCH
AND NOT ALL THAT FAST, AS THE ORGANIZING STORM WILL TAKE A PATH
KEEPING IT FAR SOUTH OF THE REGION. DO THINK SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING (PROBABLY AFTER 03Z).
LIGHT RAIN COULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW AS WELL AT MSS AND
SLK. WITH ANY RAIN/SNOW, WE SHOULD SEE MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
DURING SATURDAY MORNING, WE EXPECT ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPTATION
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD
BE MINIMAL. HAVE JUST INCLUDED "VCSH" IN MOST TAFS FOR THAT.
SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST WILL BE STRENGTHENING SOME
ON SATURDAY PRIMARILY IN THE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
18Z SAT-00Z MON: VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR WITH A FEW RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GUSTING IN THE
25-35KT RANGE ON SUNDAY.

00Z MON-12Z TUE: VFR

12Z TUE ONWARD: MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND LOWER CEILINGS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE KCXX-88D DOPPLER RADAR IN
COLCHESTER VERMONT IS OUT OF SERVICE AT THIS TIME. ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIANS HAVE CHECKED THE RADAR AND FOUND A PROBLEM WITH HIGH
VOLTAGE ARCING. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS ARE AT THE RADAR SITE THIS
MORNING ATTEMPTING REPAIRS. OWING TO THE COMPLEX NATURE OF THE
PROBLEM...IT APPEARS THE EARLIEST RETURN TO SERVICE WILL BE
SOMETIME ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...NASH
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 311736
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
136 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TRACKS NORTHEAST TO
A POSITION SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
LATE SATURDAY...THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIME
PROVINCES BY SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS
STORM INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF FAST MOVING COLD FRONTS DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.

A 700 HPA SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
WILL INTERACT WITH THIS LOW AND HAVE IT TRACK SLOWLY NE AND DEEPEN
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WILL WORK TO FORM AN INVERTED TROUGH
TO THE N-NW OF THIS LOW BY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN HAVING AN AREA OF ISOLD-SCT -SHRA TRACK FROM OFF THE
LI COAST BACK TOWARDS W/NW THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN FOR THIS AS COVERAGE LIKELY WILL BE SPARSE AND INTENSITY QUITE
LIGHT.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST FROM THE
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 850
MB AND HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

TEMPS ON TRACK AND HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ALL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN TAKING A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW DOWN
INTO THE CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN LIFTING IT EAST THEN
NORTHEAST AS IT OPENS TO NEAR/OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE RESULT WILL BE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN BECOMING LIKELY BY LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS ROUGHLY THE S 1/2 OF THE CWA AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN N. THE SPOTTY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...BECOMING MORE
PERIODIC BY AFTERNOON OVER THE S 1/2 OF THE CWA. PRECIPITATION
THEN TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS WELL TO THE
NE SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT IN MOST AREAS...THE
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BEFORE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
COMES IN TO CAUSE ANY MIXING WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW. A POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION COULD BE ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000-1500 FT ACROSS MAINLY
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF S CT...WHERE THE COLD AIR MIGHT ARRIVE IN
TIME TO CAUSE A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW TO MIX IN...IF NOT BRIEFLY
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW...BEFORE ENDING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS EVEN
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION FROM THIS SYSTEM.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WINDS
SHOULD GUSTS TO UP TO 30-35 MPH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND 25-30 MPH OVER WESTERN PORTIONS. AS THE
STORM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT PULLS AWAY THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH OVER MAINLY S CT/LONG ISLAND
AND POSSIBLY NYC/FAR E PORTIONS OF NE NJ SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW
FORECASTING WINDS TO REMAIN JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A WIND ADVISORY WAS ULTIMATELY
NEEDED FOR AT LEAST E SUFFOLK COUNTY AND SE CT. THIS IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW - BUT BASED
ON LATEST GUIDANCE IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT:
FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES...EXPECT VALUES TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

A BLEND OF ECS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 950 HPA NEAR THE COAST AND 925 HPA INLAND...PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY. READINGS SHOULD
BE AROUND 5 TO MAYBE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH
MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM ON SUNDAY...AND
THE RESULTING TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUSTAIN WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE DAYTIME BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SUNDAY
NIGHT. FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS COULD SUPPORT ADVISORY CRITERIA
WIND GUSTS DURING THE DAY...PARTICULARLY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS. SOME
SPOTS COULD EVEN REACH CRITERIA BASED ON SUSTAINED WINDS. ASIDE FROM
THIS...PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS. WIND CHILLS AT DAYBREAK WILL BE AROUND 30 DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ON MONDAY AND MOVES
OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. DRY BOTH DAYS WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES...BUT IS MOISTURE
STARVED. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CITY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT THEN FOLLOWS...AND IS PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH
SOMETIME THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. POPS EVENTUALLY CLIMB INTO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS TO
THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY AND TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CIGS AROUND 5000 FT...LOWERING
TO 3500-4000 FT. LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS FROM EAST TO WEST THIS
EVENING...AND CONDS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH MVFR CONDS. CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP TO IFR
SOMETIME FROM 12Z-18Z SATURDAY IN HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS.

NE WINDS 8-12 KT THIS EVENING WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH 20-25
KT GUSTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND THEN WINDS INCREASE FURTHER
TO 20-25 KT WITH 25-30 KT GUSTS AFTER 15Z SATURDAY. WINDS
GRADUALLY BACK TO THE NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY.

EXCEPTION WILL BE KSWF...WHERE PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT AND CONDS
OCCASIONALLY DROPPING TO MVFR. WINDS WILL AVERAGE 8-12 KT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KT LATE SATURDAY.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE FROM 00-02Z SATURDAY IN
-RA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH 07Z SATURDAY.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE FROM 00-02Z SATURDAY IN
-RA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH 07Z SATURDAY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE FROM 01-03Z SATURDAY IN
-RA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH 07Z SATURDAY.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE FROM 01-03Z SATURDAY IN
-RA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH 07Z SATURDAY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE FROM 01-03Z SATURDAY IN
-RA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH 07Z SATURDAY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 01Z SATURDAY IN
-RA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY...MVFR CONDS IN RA. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT...BACKING TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR. NORTH WINDS AROUND 20 KT
WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KT WITH 30-40 KT GUSTS.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT.
.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR DURING THE DAY...CONDS LOWERING TO MVFR IN -RA AT
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS SHOULD KEEP WINDS TO
AROUND 15 KT OR LESS TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING TO THE S AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING WELL TO THE WEST. THIS SHOULD BRING GUSTS TO
25-30 KT TO ALL WATERS TONIGHT...SO HAVE CONTINUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. THE HIGH TO THE WEST APPROACHES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AND A SERIES OF STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOWS RESULT IN A
CONTINUING TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS.
THIS LIKELY WILL RESULT IN GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER ALL WATERS
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 40-45
KT SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THESE GUSTS INTO SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD
AS A RESULT TO 5-10 FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND 3-5 FT ON
THE EASTERN SOUND BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

N-NW GALES CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THEN
WINDS START TO DIMINISH AT NIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING...ALL WATERS
SHOULD BE BELOW GALE FORCE GUSTS...HOWEVER SCA CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PREVAIL ACROSS THE OCEAN AND EASTERN WATERS THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT
FOR SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO REACH ALL OF THE WATERS WHEN A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD  A RETURN WSW FLOW FOR
TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT. A MORE STEADY/LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS FORECAST FROM
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT - WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER S/E
AREAS. FOR NOW FORECASTING TOTAL RAINFALL FROM TONIGHT-
SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM AROUND A TENTH AN INCH OVER ORANGE
COUNTY TO A HALF AND INCH TO MAYBE THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER
SE CT/E SUFFOLK COUNTY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED DURATION OF
PRECIPITATION OF 24+HOURS...NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS
ANTICIPATED FROM THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT/PW









000
FXUS61 KALY 311729
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
129 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A POTENT SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...TURNING TO SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM
OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON OVER US BY
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM EDT...STILL QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE OCCURRING FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS N AND W...WHILE CLOUDS ARE MORE PREVALENT ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

THE AREA OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM THE
S AND E THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EXPANDS WESTWARD...AND THE HIGH CLOUDS TO OUR
SOUTH LIFT NORTH. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY-MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA
REGION AND EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT DESPITE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS...NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET.

TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 50S IN MOST VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER
40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS
OF THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND CATSKILLS MAY ONLY REACH
THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THE DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH) LOOKS
TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS INCREASING
AS THE 00Z EUROPEAN/CANADIAN AND THE GFS (AND ITS ALL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS) INDICATE A SIMILAR SCENARIO KEEPING THE OCEAN STORM AND
MOST OF ITS PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST.

WHAT THIS WILL MEAN FOR US IN ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TONIGHT...BUT EVEN MOST OF THESE SHOULD HOLD OFF LATE ENOUGH TO NOT
IMPACT ALL THE TRICK OR TREATERS. IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR A SNOW FLAKES IN THE ADIRONDACK BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
EXTREMELY MINOR AT THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000
FEET AND THE PRECIPITATION LIGHT.

SATURDAY...AS PHASING COMMENCES WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST...IT WILL
REMAIN OVERCAST WITH PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AGAIN THESE
WILL BE LIGHT AND IN MOST CASES...RAIN...WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM WILL BE OFF CAPE COD. IT
LOOKS AS IF ITS HEAVY BANDS OF PRECIPITATION (BOTH THE WARM AND COLD
CONVEYOR BELTS AND ASSOCIATED BANDING) WILL STAY TO OUR EAST. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ON ITS OUTER EDGE WILL SKIM MAINLY OUR EASTERN
TERRAIN...BUT A FEW OF THESE COULD WORK INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST. BY THIS TIME...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DIP WELL BELOW
ZERO EVERYWHERE AND FREEZING LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE TO THE
GROUND. THEREFORE...MOST OF WHAT FALL SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
SNOW...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF IT. A COATING TO A COUPLE OF
INCHES IS POSSIBLE (BUT NOT CERTAIN) OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WHILE A DUSTING CANNOT BE RULED EVEN ON THE VALLEY FLOORS...IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...20S HIGHER TERRAIN. A GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 MPH WILL ADD TO
THE CHILL.

SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOOK TO BE GONE BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CLOUDS LOOK TO
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. NEVERTHELESS IT WILL BE A DOWNRIGHT
COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS NO BETTER THAN MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH GOOD
MIXING...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30-35 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THE WIND WILL SLOWLY ABATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OF REGION...BUT NOT COMPLETELY. ASSUMING THE SKY REMAINS
MOSTLY CLEAR (WHICH WE THINK IT WILL) TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE INTO
THE 20S ACROSS MOST AREAS...UPPER 20S VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 20S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THESE
TWO DAYS. A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON TUESDAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUESDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY START IN THE 20S...HIGHS MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE A LOT OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE
BY WEDNESDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...RANGING UP
TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHWEST.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AFTER IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE FORECAST THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT IN ALL AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODELS
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A MUCH STRONGER TROF AND
MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN. THE ECMWF TROF IS FAIRLY WEAK AND ONLY
SHOWS SCATTERED PCPN.

IT WILL REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW. HOWEVER...A CEILING
BETWEEN 3000 FEET AND 5000 FEET...WHICH HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AROUND
KPSF...SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AFTER 14Z...SOME SHOWERS COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH THE KPOU
AREA AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WINDS FROM THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT LESS
THAN 10 KT...THEN APPROACH 10 KT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. RH
VALUES WILL GENERALLY AROUND OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL 75-90 PERCENT.

TODAY WILL START WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CLOUDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS. SOME OF THESE WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY REAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UP TO A
COUPLE OF INCHES COULD COLLECT IN A FEW SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
TURN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...SUNSHINE RETURNS BUT IT WILL BE WINDY AND COLD WITH
GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 30 MPH OR HIGHER. IT WILL BE COLD THAT
DAY AS WELL. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S VALLEYS...AND 40S
MOUNTAINS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY..BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KBGM 311711
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
111 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY...BUT IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY. A CHILLY UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME RAIN SHOWERS...EVENTUALLY MIXING WITH
SNOW SHOWERS AS COOLER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. ONCE THIS SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY BY LATER SUNDAY...DRIER WEATHER...WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES...SHOULD THEN BE THE RULE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...
HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF FURTHER DELAYING MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BUT BASICALLY A DRY DAY FOR MOST...WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS MAINLY WEST OF PENN YAN-CORNING. THEN FOR
TONIGHT...ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BUT ELSEWHERE THE CHANCES WILL ONLY SLOWLY INCREASE AND BE FOCUSED
TO MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
300 AM EDT UPDATE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AND QUIET AND
DRY WEATHER IS PRESENT. THE UPPR LVL TROUGH THAT WILL BRING
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION TODAY IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL WI. THIS
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH AND AMPLIFY OVER THE MIDWEST
THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF NY AND PA. HOWEVER THE MID LVL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
THE CWA. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING OVER THE
FAR SE PORTION OF THE CWA... BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO LAST LONG.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO RETURN OVER THE SE SHORTLY AFTER 18Z
TODAY.

EXPECT THE ONSET OF SHOWERS TO BE LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
WITH SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA AROUND 18Z. SHOWERS
WILL BE SCATTERED LIKE IN NATURE AND WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE UPPR
40S TO LOW 50S... THUS EXPECT ALL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING TO BE RAIN. WHEN TEMPS START TO COOL OFF AFTER 00Z TONIGHT
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. THE CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE PRIMARILY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE TONIGHT IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
440 AM EDT UPDATE...
BY SAT MORNING THE BASE OF THE UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE
OVER SC. THEN... BY 00Z SAT THE MAIN AXIS WILL BE OFF THE EASTERN
CONUS. THE MAIN FORCING WITH THE UPPR LOW WILL NOT IMPACT OUR
REGION... AND THE PATH OF THE UPPR LOW WILL KEEP THE COASTAL
SYSTEM WELL OUT OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER... THE UPPR BRANCH OF THE
POTENT UPPR LOW WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR THE SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA THRU SAT NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AS THE MAIN AXIS MOVES EAST COOLER AIR WILL START TO DRAIN INTO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. 850MB TEMPS WILL START AS
NEGATIVE ONE 12Z SATURDAY... FALL TO NEGATIVE THREE 00Z SUNDAY...
THEN FALL TO NEGATIVE EIGHT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO STRONG
CAA... ALL RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW BY SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL THEN SUPPORT SNOW GROWTH.

SATURDAY EVENING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS LOOK PLAUSIBLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF THE FINGER LAKES. THE
LONGEVITY OF THE FINGER LAKE BANDS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE MEAN
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND AND THE MOISTURE PROFILE RIGHT ABOVE THE SFC.

SUNDAY MORNING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP STARTS TO DROP OFF. UPSLOPE
INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. BUT DUE VERY DRY
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT... THE
CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS ARE SLIM. EXPECT FLURRIES AT
BEST. WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH
WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTY NEAR 30 MPH. THUS
WITH TEMPS ONLY INCREASING INTO THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S... SUN
AFTERNOON WILL BE RATHER CHILLY. SUNDAY EVENING WILL BR DRY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION,

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
WILL PROVIDE MILDER TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT SWINGING OUT OF ONTARIO AND THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

AFTER THE MILD START, TEMERATURES WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MIDDAY
SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS FOR BGM AND ITH, WHERE MVFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MID MORNING.

SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LARGELY NON-RESTRICTIVE.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT...OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN-TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...KAH/MDP
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KALY 311658
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1258 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A POTENT SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...TURNING TO SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM
OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON OVER US BY
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM EDT...STILL QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE OCCURRING FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS N AND W...WHILE CLOUDS ARE MORE PREVALENT ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

THE AREA OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM THE
S AND E THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EXPANDS WESTWARD...AND THE HIGH CLOUDS TO OUR
SOUTH LIFT NORTH. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY-MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA
REGION AND EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT DESPITE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS...NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET.

TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 50S IN MOST VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER
40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS
OF THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND CATSKILLS MAY ONLY REACH
THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THE DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH) LOOKS
TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS INCREASING
AS THE 00Z EUROPEAN/CANADIAN AND THE GFS (AND ITS ALL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS) INDICATE A SIMILAR SCENARIO KEEPING THE OCEAN STORM AND
MOST OF ITS PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST.

WHAT THIS WILL MEAN FOR US IN ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TONIGHT...BUT EVEN MOST OF THESE SHOULD HOLD OFF LATE ENOUGH TO NOT
IMPACT ALL THE TRICK OR TREATERS. IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR A SNOW FLAKES IN THE ADIRONDACK BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
EXTREMELY MINOR AT THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000
FEET AND THE PRECIPITATION LIGHT.

SATURDAY...AS PHASING COMMENCES WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST...IT WILL
REMAIN OVERCAST WITH PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AGAIN THESE
WILL BE LIGHT AND IN MOST CASES...RAIN...WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM WILL BE OFF CAPE COD. IT
LOOKS AS IF ITS HEAVY BANDS OF PRECIPITATION (BOTH THE WARM AND COLD
CONVEYOR BELTS AND ASSOCIATED BANDING) WILL STAY TO OUR EAST. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ON ITS OUTER EDGE WILL SKIM MAINLY OUR EASTERN
TERRAIN...BUT A FEW OF THESE COULD WORK INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST. BY THIS TIME...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DIP WELL BELOW
ZERO EVERYWHERE AND FREEZING LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE TO THE
GROUND. THEREFORE...MOST OF WHAT FALL SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
SNOW...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF IT. A COATING TO A COUPLE OF
INCHES IS POSSIBLE (BUT NOT CERTAIN) OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WHILE A DUSTING CANNOT BE RULED EVEN ON THE VALLEY FLOORS...IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...20S HIGHER TERRAIN. A GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 MPH WILL ADD TO
THE CHILL.

SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOOK TO BE GONE BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CLOUDS LOOK TO
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. NEVERTHELESS IT WILL BE A DOWNRIGHT
COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS NO BETTER THAN MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH GOOD
MIXING...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30-35 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THE WIND WILL SLOWLY ABATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OF REGION...BUT NOT COMPLETELY. ASSUMING THE SKY REMAINS
MOSTLY CLEAR (WHICH WE THINK IT WILL) TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE INTO
THE 20S ACROSS MOST AREAS...UPPER 20S VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 20S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THESE
TWO DAYS. A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON TUESDAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUESDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY START IN THE 20S...HIGHS MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE A LOT OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE
BY WEDNESDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...RANGING UP
TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHWEST.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AFTER IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE FORECAST THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT IN ALL AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODELS
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A MUCH STRONGER TROF AND
MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN. THE ECMWF TROF IS FAIRLY WEAK AND ONLY
SHOWS SCATTERED PCPN.

IT WILL REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR LINGERING IFR FOG CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD AT
KPSF...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z SATURDAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE CLOUD DECK MAY LOWER TO
MVFR LEVELS LATE TONIGHT AT KPOU AND KPSF. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD TO FEATURE A BKN/OVC CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000
FEET FROM THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO START...THEN BECOME
EASTERLY AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS LATER THIS MORNING...THEN BECOME
NORTHERLY AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. RH
VALUES WILL GENERALLY AROUND OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL 75-90 PERCENT.

TODAY WILL START WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CLOUDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS. SOME OF THESE WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY REAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UP TO A
COUPLE OF INCHES COULD COLLECT IN A FEW SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
TURN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...SUNSHINE RETURNS BUT IT WILL BE WINDY AND COLD WITH
GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 30 MPH OR HIGHER. IT WILL BE COLD THAT
DAY AS WELL. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S VALLEYS...AND 40S
MOUNTAINS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY..BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KALY 311658
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1258 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A POTENT SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...TURNING TO SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM
OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON OVER US BY
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM EDT...STILL QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE OCCURRING FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS N AND W...WHILE CLOUDS ARE MORE PREVALENT ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

THE AREA OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM THE
S AND E THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EXPANDS WESTWARD...AND THE HIGH CLOUDS TO OUR
SOUTH LIFT NORTH. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY-MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA
REGION AND EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT DESPITE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS...NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET.

TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 50S IN MOST VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER
40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS
OF THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND CATSKILLS MAY ONLY REACH
THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THE DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH) LOOKS
TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS INCREASING
AS THE 00Z EUROPEAN/CANADIAN AND THE GFS (AND ITS ALL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS) INDICATE A SIMILAR SCENARIO KEEPING THE OCEAN STORM AND
MOST OF ITS PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST.

WHAT THIS WILL MEAN FOR US IN ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TONIGHT...BUT EVEN MOST OF THESE SHOULD HOLD OFF LATE ENOUGH TO NOT
IMPACT ALL THE TRICK OR TREATERS. IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR A SNOW FLAKES IN THE ADIRONDACK BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
EXTREMELY MINOR AT THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000
FEET AND THE PRECIPITATION LIGHT.

SATURDAY...AS PHASING COMMENCES WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST...IT WILL
REMAIN OVERCAST WITH PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AGAIN THESE
WILL BE LIGHT AND IN MOST CASES...RAIN...WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM WILL BE OFF CAPE COD. IT
LOOKS AS IF ITS HEAVY BANDS OF PRECIPITATION (BOTH THE WARM AND COLD
CONVEYOR BELTS AND ASSOCIATED BANDING) WILL STAY TO OUR EAST. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ON ITS OUTER EDGE WILL SKIM MAINLY OUR EASTERN
TERRAIN...BUT A FEW OF THESE COULD WORK INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST. BY THIS TIME...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DIP WELL BELOW
ZERO EVERYWHERE AND FREEZING LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE TO THE
GROUND. THEREFORE...MOST OF WHAT FALL SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
SNOW...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF IT. A COATING TO A COUPLE OF
INCHES IS POSSIBLE (BUT NOT CERTAIN) OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WHILE A DUSTING CANNOT BE RULED EVEN ON THE VALLEY FLOORS...IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...20S HIGHER TERRAIN. A GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 MPH WILL ADD TO
THE CHILL.

SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOOK TO BE GONE BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CLOUDS LOOK TO
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. NEVERTHELESS IT WILL BE A DOWNRIGHT
COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS NO BETTER THAN MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH GOOD
MIXING...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30-35 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THE WIND WILL SLOWLY ABATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OF REGION...BUT NOT COMPLETELY. ASSUMING THE SKY REMAINS
MOSTLY CLEAR (WHICH WE THINK IT WILL) TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE INTO
THE 20S ACROSS MOST AREAS...UPPER 20S VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 20S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THESE
TWO DAYS. A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON TUESDAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUESDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY START IN THE 20S...HIGHS MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE A LOT OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE
BY WEDNESDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...RANGING UP
TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHWEST.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AFTER IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE FORECAST THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT IN ALL AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODELS
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A MUCH STRONGER TROF AND
MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN. THE ECMWF TROF IS FAIRLY WEAK AND ONLY
SHOWS SCATTERED PCPN.

IT WILL REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR LINGERING IFR FOG CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD AT
KPSF...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z SATURDAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE CLOUD DECK MAY LOWER TO
MVFR LEVELS LATE TONIGHT AT KPOU AND KPSF. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD TO FEATURE A BKN/OVC CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000
FEET FROM THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO START...THEN BECOME
EASTERLY AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS LATER THIS MORNING...THEN BECOME
NORTHERLY AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. RH
VALUES WILL GENERALLY AROUND OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL 75-90 PERCENT.

TODAY WILL START WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CLOUDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS. SOME OF THESE WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY REAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UP TO A
COUPLE OF INCHES COULD COLLECT IN A FEW SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
TURN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...SUNSHINE RETURNS BUT IT WILL BE WINDY AND COLD WITH
GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 30 MPH OR HIGHER. IT WILL BE COLD THAT
DAY AS WELL. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S VALLEYS...AND 40S
MOUNTAINS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY..BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KOKX 311640
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1240 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TRACKS NORTHEAST TO
A POSITION SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
LATE SATURDAY...THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIME
PROVINCES BY SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS
STORM INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF FAST MOVING COLD FRONTS DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.

A 700 HPA SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
WILL INTERACT WITH THIS LOW AND HAVE IT TRACK SLOWLY NE AND DEEPEN
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WILL WORK TO FORM AN INVERTED TROUGH
TO THE N-NW OF THIS LOW BY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN HAVING AN AREA OF ISOLD-SCT -SHRA TRACK FROM OFF THE
LI COAST BACK TOWARDS W/NW THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN FOR THIS AS COVERAGE LIKELY WILL BE SPARSE AND INTENSITY QUITE
LIGHT.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST FROM THE
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 850
MB AND HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

TEMPS ON TRACK AND HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ALL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN TAKING A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW DOWN
INTO THE CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN LIFTING IT EAST THEN
NORTHEAST AS IT OPENS TO NEAR/OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE RESULT WILL BE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN BECOMING LIKELY BY LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS ROUGHLY THE S 1/2 OF THE CWA AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN N. THE SPOTTY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...BECOMING MORE
PERIODIC BY AFTERNOON OVER THE S 1/2 OF THE CWA. PRECIPITATION
THEN TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS WELL TO THE
NE SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT IN MOST AREAS...THE
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BEFORE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
COMES IN TO CAUSE ANY MIXING WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW. A POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION COULD BE ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000-1500 FT ACROSS MAINLY
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF S CT...WHERE THE COLD AIR MIGHT ARRIVE IN
TIME TO CAUSE A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW TO MIX IN...IF NOT BRIEFLY
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW...BEFORE ENDING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS EVEN
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION FROM THIS SYSTEM.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WINDS
SHOULD GUSTS TO UP TO 30-35 MPH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND 25-30 MPH OVER WESTERN PORTIONS. AS THE
STORM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT PULLS AWAY THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH OVER MAINLY S CT/LONG ISLAND
AND POSSIBLY NYC/FAR E PORTIONS OF NE NJ SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW
FORECASTING WINDS TO REMAIN JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A WIND ADVISORY WAS ULTIMATELY
NEEDED FOR AT LEAST E SUFFOLK COUNTY AND SE CT. THIS IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW - BUT BASED
ON LATEST GUIDANCE IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT:
FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES...EXPECT VALUES TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

A BLEND OF ECS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 950 HPA NEAR THE COAST AND 925 HPA INLAND...PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY. READINGS SHOULD
BE AROUND 5 TO MAYBE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH
MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM ON SUNDAY...AND
THE RESULTING TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUSTAIN WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE DAYTIME BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SUNDAY
NIGHT. FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS COULD SUPPORT ADVISORY CRITERIA
WIND GUSTS DURING THE DAY...PARTICULARLY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS. SOME
SPOTS COULD EVEN REACH CRITERIA BASED ON SUSTAINED WINDS. ASIDE FROM
THIS...PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS. WIND CHILLS AT DAYBREAK WILL BE AROUND 30 DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ON MONDAY AND MOVES
OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. DRY BOTH DAYS WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES...BUT IS MOISTURE
STARVED. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CITY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT THEN FOLLOWS...AND IS PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH
SOMETIME THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. POPS EVENTUALLY CLIMB INTO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST...PASSING SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD SATURDAY EVENING. ANOTHER
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE SATURDAY AND
TRACK ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES SUNDAY EVENING.

MORNING TAFS ON TRACK. WILL MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST
SFC OBS AND SATELLITE TRENDS.

N/NE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE AT 10-15 KT AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES. BY 06Z SAT...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. AFT 15Z SAT...NE WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT
WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 KT.

CLOUDS...VFR CIGS 4000-5000 FT. MVFR CIGS FORECAST MAINLY AFTER
SUNSET...WITHIN 2 HOURS OF FORECAST TIME.

LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST FROM 18Z - 21Z.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AFT 18Z...MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AFT 18Z...MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AFT 18Z...MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. NE WINDS BACKING
TO THE NORTH AT 20-25KT WITH 30-35KT GUSTS.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 20-30 KT WITH 30-40 KT GUSTS.
.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS SHOULD KEEP WINDS TO
AROUND 15 KT OR LESS TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING TO THE S AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING WELL TO THE WEST. THIS SHOULD BRING GUSTS TO
25-30 KT TO ALL WATERS TONIGHT...SO HAVE CONTINUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. THE HIGH TO THE WEST APPROACHES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AND A SERIES OF STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOWS RESULT IN A
CONTINUING TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS.
THIS LIKELY WILL RESULT IN GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER ALL WATERS
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 40-45
KT SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THESE GUSTS INTO SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD
AS A RESULT TO 5-10 FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND 3-5 FT ON
THE EASTERN SOUND BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

N-NW GALES CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THEN
WINDS START TO DIMINISH AT NIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING...ALL WATERS
SHOULD BE BELOW GALE FORCE GUSTS...HOWEVER SCA CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PREVAIL ACROSS THE OCEAN AND EASTERN WATERS THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT
FOR SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO REACH ALL OF THE WATERS WHEN A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD  A RETURN WSW FLOW FOR
TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT. A MORE STEADY/LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS FORECAST FROM
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT - WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER S/E
AREAS. FOR NOW FORECASTING TOTAL RAINFALL FROM TONIGHT-
SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM AROUND A TENTH AN INCH OVER ORANGE
COUNTY TO A HALF AND INCH TO MAYBE THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER
SE CT/E SUFFOLK COUNTY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED DURATION OF
PRECIPITATION OF 24+HOURS...NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS
ANTICIPATED FROM THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT/PW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 311518
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1118 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY...THEN TRACKS
NORTHEAST TO A POSITION SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
LATE SATURDAY...THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIME
PROVINCES BY SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS
STORM INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF FAST MOVING COLD FRONTS
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.

A 700 HPA SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY OVER N CENTRAL GA...ROUNDING THE
BASE OF A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THIS LOW AND HAVE
IT TRACK SLOWLY NE AND DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
CURRENTLY...WILL WORK TO FORM AN INVERTED TROUGH TO THE N-NW OF
THIS LOW BY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN HAVING
AN AREA OF ISOLD-SCT -SHRA TRACK FROM OFF THE LI COAST BACK
TOWARDS W/NW THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THIS
AS COVERAGE LIKELY WILL BE SPARSE AND INTENSITY QUITE LIGHT.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 850 MB AND HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

TEMPS ON TRACK AND HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ALL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN TAKING A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW DOWN
INTO THE CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN LIFTING IT EAST THEN
NORTHEAST AS IT OPENS TO NEAR/OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE RESULT WILL BE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN BECOMING LIKELY BY LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS ROUGHLY THE S 1/2 OF THE CWA AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN N. THE SPOTTY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...BECOMING MORE
PERIODIC BY AFTERNOON OVER THE S 1/2 OF THE CWA. PRECIPITATION
THEN TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS WELL TO THE
NE SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT IN MOST AREAS...THE
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BEFORE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
COMES IN TO CAUSE ANY MIXING WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW. A POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION COULD BE ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000-1500 FT ACROSS MAINLY
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF S CT...WHERE THE COLD AIR MIGHT ARRIVE IN
TIME TO CAUSE A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW TO MIX IN...IF NOT BRIEFLY
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW...BEFORE ENDING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS EVEN
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION FROM THIS SYSTEM.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WINDS
SHOULD GUSTS TO UP TO 30-35 MPH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND 25-30 MPH OVER WESTERN PORTIONS. AS THE
STORM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT PULLS AWAY THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH OVER MAINLY S CT/LONG ISLAND
AND POSSIBLY NYC/FAR E PORTIONS OF NE NJ SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW
FORECASTING WINDS TO REMAIN JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A WIND ADVISORY WAS ULTIMATELY
NEEDED FOR AT LEAST E SUFFOLK COUNTY AND SE CT. THIS IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW - BUT BASED
ON LATEST GUIDANCE IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT:
FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES...EXPECT VALUES TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

A BLEND OF ECS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 950 HPA NEAR THE COAST AND 925 HPA INLAND...PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY. READINGS SHOULD
BE AROUND 5 TO MAYBE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH
MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM ON SUNDAY...AND
THE RESULTING TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUSTAIN WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE DAYTIME BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SUNDAY
NIGHT. FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS COULD SUPPORT ADVISORY CRITERIA
WIND GUSTS DURING THE DAY...PARTICULARLY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS. SOME
SPOTS COULD EVEN REACH CRITERIA BASED ON SUSTAINED WINDS. ASIDE FROM
THIS...PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS. WIND CHILLS AT DAYBREAK WILL BE AROUND 30 DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ON MONDAY AND MOVES
OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. DRY BOTH DAYS WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES...BUT IS MOISTURE
STARVED. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CITY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT THEN FOLLOWS...AND IS PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH
SOMETIME THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. POPS EVENTUALLY CLIMB INTO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST...PASSING SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD SATURDAY EVENING. ANOTHER
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE SATURDAY AND
TRACK ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES SUNDAY EVENING.

MORNING TAFS ON TRACK. WILL MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST
SFC OBS AND SATELLITE TRENDS.

N/NE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE AT 10-15 KT AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES. BY 06Z SAT...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. AFT 15Z SAT...NE WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT
WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 KT.

CLOUDS...VFR CIGS 4000-5000 FT. MVFR CIGS FORECAST MAINLY AFTER
SUNSET...WITHIN 2 HOURS OF FORECAST TIME.

LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST FROM 18Z - 21Z.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AFT 18Z...MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AFT 18Z...MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AFT 18Z...MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. NE WINDS BACKING
TO THE NORTH AT 20-25KT WITH 30-35KT GUSTS.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 20-30 KT WITH 30-40 KT GUSTS.
.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS SHOULD KEEP WINDS TO
AROUND 15 KT OR LESS TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING TO THE S AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SW...THIS SHOULD BRING GUSTS TO 25-30
KT TO ALL WATERS TONIGHT...SO HAVE CONTINUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THEN. THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA SATURDAY-SUNDAY...AND
A SERIES OF STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOWS RESULT IN A CONTINUING
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. THIS LIKELY
WILL RESULT IN GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER ALL WATERS DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY...WITH WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 40-45 KT SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH THESE GUSTS INTO SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD AS A RESULT
TO 5-10 FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND 3-5 FT ON THE EASTERN
SOUND BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

N-NW GALES CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THEN
WINDS START TO DIMINISH AT NIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING...ALL WATERS
SHOULD BE BELOW GALE FORCE GUSTS...HOWEVER SCA CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PREVAIL ACROSS THE OCEAN AND EASTERN WATERS THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT
FOR SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO REACH ALL OF THE WATERS WHEN A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD  A RETURN WSW FLOW FOR
TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH THIS MORNING...THEN LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS INTO
TONIGHT. A MORE STEADY/LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN IS FORECAST FROM
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT - WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER S/E
AREAS. FOR NOW FORECASTING TOTAL RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT-
SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM AROUND A TENTH AN INCH OVER ORANGE
COUNTY TO A HALF AND INCH TO MAYBE THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER
SE CT/E SUFFOLK COUNTY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED DURATION OF
PRECIPITATION OF 24+HOURS...NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS
ANTICIPATED FROM THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT/PW








000
FXUS61 KBTV 311441
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1041 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND THEN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...AND THEN WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EARLY SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND BE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1028 AM EDT FRIDAY...RATHER TRANQUIL HALLOWEEN DAY WITH
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
P-GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S REGIONWIDE...OR 2-4 DEGREES BELOW
THE LATE OCTOBER AVERAGE. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH...WHICH EXTENDS NEWD ACROSS SERN ONTARIO
TO NEAR/JUST WEST OF THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. WILL SEE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR/ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH. OTHERWISE...REMAINING
DRY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH JUST A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS EVENING WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE
LOWER 40S WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AT 5 MPH OR LESS...EXCEPT
LOCALLY NE 5-10 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. JUST A
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE (20-30 PERCENT) OF SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY...MAINLY AFFECTING ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 456 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE BEST FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WHERE AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
AND WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY. A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN BE JUST EAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THEN ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOWEVER...AS LOW PRESSURE
AREA MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE COAST...EXPECTING A BETTER CHANCE FOR
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING
HEAVIER QPF WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. HAVE GONE ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND ALSO AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER. SUNDAY
WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT FRIDAY...AN ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WX PATTERN
ANTICIPATED ACRS THE NE CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. LARGE SCALE
PATTERN SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY LATE MONDAY...WITH BUILDING HGHTS FOR
MIDWEEK...BEFORE NEXT TROF DEVELOPS BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
OVERALL...GOOD AGREEMENT BTWN 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND LATEST ENSEMBLE
DATA ON SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
OF SFC FEATURES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE 20S
AND 30S...WITH COLDEST READING ACRS THE NEK OF VT. BY MONDAY...SFC
HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH A DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW AND LLVL WAA. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CLIMB BTWN -1C NEK
TO +1C SLV BY 00Z TUES...DEEP DRY LAYER ACRS OUR CWA. THESE TEMPS
WL RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO L50S ON MONDAY...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

TUES/WEDS...LLVL WAA CONTS INTO TUES WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARMING ANOTHER 3 TO 4 DEGREES WITH VALUES BTWN 3C AND 5C BY 00Z
WEDS...UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS. THESE WARM TEMPS WL
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE U40S MTNS TO MID 50S VALLEYS ON
TUES...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST.
ANOTHER VERY WARM NIGHT IS EXPECT ON TUES NIGHT...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE U30S MTNS TO
MID/UPPER 40S VALLEYS. BY WEDS WEAKENING SFC COLD FRNT AND
ASSOCIATED NARROW RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB RH MOVES ACRS OUR CWA. IN
ADDITION..WEAK ELONGATED 5H VORT IS ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY...SO
HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION LOW LIKELY POPS ACRS NORTHERN NY AND CHC
POPS ACRS THE CPV AND VT. GIVEN THE SYSTEM IS FALLING APART AND
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED...QPF WL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY <.10".
THERMAL PROFILES ARE WELL ABOVE 0C ON TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS...WITH
1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES ABOVE 550DM...SO EXPECT ALL
RAIN...EVEN ABOVE 4000 FT. WEAK LLVL CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND 1ST
BOUNDARY ON WEDS AFTN INTO THURS WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS FALLING
BLW 0C AGAIN...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS SHIFTED OFF THE COAST.

NEXT POTENT 5H VORT WL APPROACH OUR WESTERN CWA BY 12Z
THURS...ALONG WITH SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL AIR. THIS POCKET OF
ENERGY...COMBINED WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE PROFILES...WL
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP. ATTM...THERMAL PROFILES LOOK COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME MIX RAIN/SNOW ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN WITH MAINLY
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. THIS WL BE A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WITH
LIMITED SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE INTERACTION...SO QPF/SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT. ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AIR WL
FOLLOW ON THURS INTO FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BEFORE ANOTHER WARM UP
OCCURS OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS VERY CHANGEABLE PATTERN OVER THE
NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS WITH FEATURE RAPID WARM UPS AND COOL
DOWNS...WITH OVERALL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND NEAR NORMAL CHCS FOR
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...SFC ANALYSIS PLACES 1012MB LOW PRES OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NY/LAKE ONTARIO. CRNT OBS SHOW
VFR CONDITIONS ACRS OUR TAF SITES WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR AT
SLK...WHICH SHOULD BECOME VFR SHORTLY. THINKING LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY WL APPROACH MSS BY 16Z AND INTO SLK BTWN 18-20Z
TODAY...WITH DEVELOPING MVFR CIGS. THINKING THIS ACTIVITY WL HAVE
A HARD TIME SPREADING EAST THIS EVENING WITH BEST MOISTURE
DROPPING TO OUR SOUTHWEST...ALONG WITH STRONGEST S/W ENERGY.
EXPECTING SHOWERS TO LINGER THIS EVENING ACRS NORTHERN NY TAF
SITES...WITH SOME MIX WITH SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK AFT 04Z. THIS
COULD REDUCE VIS AT TIMES TO IFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE COMBINATION OF MID LVL MOISTURE AND ENERGY ALOFT WL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP WITH IFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE AT
SLK...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WL LINGER INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES BY
MONDAY. ALSO...BREEZY TO GUSTY NORTH WINDS WL DEVELOP LATE SAT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH SFC GUSTS BTWN 20 AND 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE KCXX-88D DOPPLER RADAR IN
COLCHESTER VERMONT IS OUT OF SERVICE AT THIS TIME. ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIANS HAVE CHECKED THE RADAR AND FOUND A PROBLEM WITH HIGH
VOLTAGE ARCING. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS ARE AT THE RADAR SITE THIS
MORNING ATTEMPTING REPAIRS. OWING TO THE COMPLEX NATURE OF THE
PROBLEM...IT APPEARS THE EARLIEST RETURN TO SERVICE WILL BE
SOMETIME ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBUF 311437
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1037 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS THE VICINITY OF LAKE
ONTARIO TODAY...WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS
WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DRAWS CLOSER TOWARDS LAKE ERIE. BEHIND THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIQUID...ALTHOUGH A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN INITIAL BATCH OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER THIS MORNING...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM
FRONT SURGING NORTHWARD. AS OF 14Z RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WAS PUSHING OUT OVER LAKE ONTARIO...WITH DRYING ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK. THIS BREAK WILL ONLY LAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK...AS THE VORTICITY ADVECTION INCREASES FROM THE WEST WITH
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. EXPECT TO SEE A BROAD AREA
OF SHOWERS DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A
THE GENESEE VALLEY AND THE ROCHESTER AREA. DESPITE THE LACK OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO RISE TODAY GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DENSE CLOUD
DECK ACROSS THE AREA.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING DISPLAYS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BASE OF A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DROP
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN US BY SATURDAY MORNING. ON THE 1.5 PV
SURFACE...A SPLIT IN THIS SHORTWAVE IS SEEN...WITH THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN EASTERN US...WHILE A DOWNWARD INTRUSION
OF ENERGY LINGERS OVER THE CANADIAN NIAGARA PENINSULA TONIGHT.

THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE THE SURFACE LOW
SOUTHEASTWARD...WITH THE WEAK LOW DROPPING TOWARDS THE WESTERN HALF
OF LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING AS LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS
FORMS ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE OVERNIGHT...WITH A SECONDARY LOW
DEEPENING. TRACKING THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL CENTER THE BETTER
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WE WILL FIND LIKELY SHOWERS REACHING WNY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS REMAINING
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. TOWARDS THE EAST...WHICH WILL
LARGELY REMAIN AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCES OF THE SURFACE LOW TODAY...
LOW CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLAY FOR SHOWERS...WITH ANY ACTIVITY
LARGELY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE LINGERING UPPER LEVEL PV INTRUSION/ENERGY ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR
ADDITIONAL LIFT OVERNIGHT. A STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST WIND AROUND
THIS SECONDARY...DEEPENING ATLANTIC COASTLINE LOW WILL FOCUS LOW
LEVEL MOIST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN END OF THE
LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE OVERNIGHT. THIS LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...COMBINED WITH LIFT ALOFT WILL BRING CATEGORICAL LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS TOWARDS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK ZONES LATER OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST THAT ALL FALLING PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WILL REMAIN AS LIQUID.

CLOUDS WILL REMAIN RATHER THICK THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...WHICH IN
ADDITION TO THE LOWERING SUN ANGLE WILL PROVIDE FOR A SMALL DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE. HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY BEST THEIR MORNING
TEMPERATURES BY 5-10 DEGREES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. A
FEW 50S ARE POSSIBLE SE OF LAKE ONTARIO. TONIGHT LOWS WILL DROP OFF
TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. WARMEST AREAS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY BE TO
THE SW OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE YET STILL WARM
LAKE ONTARIO WILL LIKELY KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEEKEND WILL START OFF CHILLY AND WET AS A COMPLEX LOW DEVELOPS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
ONLY HAVE A SMALL IMPACT ON OUR REGION WITH AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL DRIVE OUR
WEATHER ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW...BUT 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
COOL FROM WEST TO EAST. THE NAM/SREF TEND TO BE WARMER THAN GFS/RGEM
GUIDANCE...BUT USING A CONSENSUS 850MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO
-3C TO -5C SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO MIX
WITH SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN WESTERN
AREAS AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE BEST LIFT WILL BE BELOW
700MB...PRIMARILY FROM UPSLOPING AND MODEST LAKE ENHANCEMENT. WITH
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ANY ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
SATURDAY WOULD BE LIGHT AND CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR FORECAST TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM
CENTRAL CANADA. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL...WITH
LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE KEEPING THE SURFACE TO
700MB COLUMN MOIST. HOWEVER...THE DRY AIR ALOFT WILL HINDER SNOW
WITH MOST OF THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE DRY. IT MAY BE JUST COOL
ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS...OR PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AS DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ACROSS
THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS WHERE THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHTLY LONGER FETCH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND MORE MOISTURE FROM THE
COASTAL LOW. AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO BUILD IN...LINGERING
PRECIPITATION SHOULD FIZZLE OUT ON SUNDAY...EVOLVING INTO
LAKE-INDUCED STRATUS. IT STILL APPEARS ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE VERY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING IN MOST AREAS
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY
RESULT IN A FEW ICY SPOTS SATURDAY NIGHT IF THERE ARE ANY WET SPOTS
FROM PRECIPITATION EARLIER IN THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...BRINGING FAIR
WEATHER AND GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES. CLOUDS SHOULD LAST MUCH OF THE
DAY ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS WITH COOL AIR ALOFT RESULTING IN LAKE
ENHANCED STRATUS. SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR THE LAKES AND IN WESTERN SECTIONS. HIGHS WILL CHILLY...ONLY BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...WITH FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. FLOW BACKING TO
THE SOUTHWEST WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...PUSHING TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE THE 50 DEGREE MARK MONDAY
AND BY TUESDAY MANY AREAS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS
A 60 DEGREE READING OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE TYPICALLY
WARMER SPOTS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE FINGER LAKES.
ALTHOUGH THE WARM ADVECTION WILL PUT AN END TO ANY LAKE EFFECT CLOUD
COVER...THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO GO
AROUND MONDAY AND TUESDAY COURTESY OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.

AFTER A DRY START TO THE WEEK...WE WILL SEE SHOWERS CREEP BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
LOW LIFT FROM WESTERN ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. AS THE LOW
TRACKS INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC...IT WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN WESTERN AREAS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE FRONTOGENETIC AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND RETURN
FLOW SUPPLYING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER LAKES
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

00Z/12Z MODEL ECMWF/GFS/GGEM GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT FOR THE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TIMEFRAME...WITH SOME GUIDANCE DEVELOPING A
FRONTAL WAVE WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE FORECASTING A MORE PROGRESSIVE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES...WILL JUST COVER THE
PERIOD WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING AND USE A MULTI-MODEL
BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES WHICH IS ALSO PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DESPITE OVERCAST SKIES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING IS
PUSHING NORTHWARD ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO...WITH PRECIPITATION AND
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS ENDING AT THE TAF SITES.

EXPECT A BREAK IN THE RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE
RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF
SITES...KIAG/KBUF/KJHW/KROC...AND SLOWLY SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE SHOWERS...MAINLY DUE TO
LOWERED CIGS. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED NEAR KART.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. COOLER AIR
FLOWING BEHIND THIS LOW PRESSURE COMBINED WITH THE NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL LIKELY FORM MVFR AND LATER IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. CLIMATOLOGY PLACES IFR AT BETTER THAN 50 PERCENT FOR
KJHW...WHILE THE NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO MAY ALSO BRING IFR
CIGS FOR KROC/KIAG/KBUF...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AT KJHW.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR WITH SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND
FLURRIES.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN
END OF LAKE ERIE TODAY WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS TO THE LAKES.

A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE
THIS WEEKEND...AND NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND THIS LOW WILL INCREASE
FIRST ON LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SATURDAY MORNING ON LAKE
ERIE.

IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS...WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 4 TO 7 FEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. WHILE WAVES WILL BE GREATEST ON THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND ALSO THE WESTERN END OF LAKE
ERIE...HAVE ISSUED SCA FOR THE ENTIRE LAKE ONTARIO REGION...AND
THE EASTERN HALF OF LAKE ERIE AS WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD TOP SCA
THRESHOLDS AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND. THESE NORTHEASTERLY TO LATER THIS
WEEKEND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BRING SCA CONDITIONS
TO THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY
         FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 1 AM
         EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST
         MONDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT TO 1 AM EST
         MONDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/WOOD
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KOKX 311435
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1035 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY...THEN TRACKS
NORTHEAST TO A POSITION SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
LATE SATURDAY...THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIME
PROVINCES BY SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS
STORM INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF FAST MOVING COLD FRONTS
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.

A 700 HPA SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY OVER N CENTRAL GA...ROUNDING THE
BASE OF A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THIS LOW AND HAVE
IT TRACK SLOWLY NE AND DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
CURRENTLY...WILL WORK TO FORM AN INVERTED TROUGH TO THE N-NW OF
THIS LOW BY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN HAVING
AN AREA OF ISOLD-SCT -SHRA TRACK WNW FROM OFF THE LI COAST BACK
TOWARDS W/NW THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THIS
AS COVERAGE LIKELY WILL BE SPARSE AND INTENSITY QUITE LIGHT.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 850 MB AND HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

TEMPS ON TRACK AND HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ALL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN TAKING A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW DOWN
INTO THE CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN LIFTING IT EAST THEN
NORTHEAST AS IT OPENS TO NEAR/OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE RESULT WILL BE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN BECOMING LIKELY BY LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS ROUGHLY THE S 1/2 OF THE CWA AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN N. THE SPOTTY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...BECOMING MORE
PERIODIC BY AFTERNOON OVER THE S 1/2 OF THE CWA. PRECIPITATION
THEN TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS WELL TO THE
NE SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT IN MOST AREAS...THE
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BEFORE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
COMES IN TO CAUSE ANY MIXING WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW. A POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION COULD BE ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000-1500 FT ACROSS MAINLY
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF S CT...WHERE THE COLD AIR MIGHT ARRIVE IN
TIME TO CAUSE A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW TO MIX IN...IF NOT BRIEFLY
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW...BEFORE ENDING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS EVEN
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION FROM THIS SYSTEM.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WINDS
SHOULD GUSTS TO UP TO 30-35 MPH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND 25-30 MPH OVER WESTERN PORTIONS. AS THE
STORM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT PULLS AWAY THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH OVER MAINLY S CT/LONG ISLAND
AND POSSIBLY NYC/FAR E PORTIONS OF NE NJ SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW
FORECASTING WINDS TO REMAIN JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A WIND ADVISORY WAS ULTIMATELY
NEEDED FOR AT LEAST E SUFFOLK COUNTY AND SE CT. THIS IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW - BUT BASED
ON LATEST GUIDANCE IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT:
FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES...EXPECT VALUES TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

A BLEND OF ECS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 950 HPA NEAR THE COAST AND 925 HPA INLAND...PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY. READINGS SHOULD
BE AROUND 5 TO MAYBE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH
MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM ON SUNDAY...AND
THE RESULTING TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUSTAIN WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE DAYTIME BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SUNDAY
NIGHT. FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS COULD SUPPORT ADVISORY CRITERIA
WIND GUSTS DURING THE DAY...PARTICULARLY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS. SOME
SPOTS COULD EVEN REACH CRITERIA BASED ON SUSTAINED WINDS. ASIDE FROM
THIS...PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS. WIND CHILLS AT DAYBREAK WILL BE AROUND 30 DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ON MONDAY AND MOVES
OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. DRY BOTH DAYS WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES...BUT IS MOISTURE
STARVED. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CITY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT THEN FOLLOWS...AND IS PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH
SOMETIME THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. POPS EVENTUALLY CLIMB INTO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST...PASSING SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD SATURDAY EVENING. ANOTHER
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE SATURDAY AND
TRACK ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES SUNDAY EVENING.

MORNING TAFS ON TRACK. WILL MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST
SFC OBS AND SATELLITE TRENDS.

N/NE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE AT 10-15 KT AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES. BY 06Z SAT...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. AFT 15Z SAT...NE WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT
WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 KT.

CLOUDS...VFR CIGS 4000-5000 FT. MVFR CIGS FORECAST MAINLY AFTER
SUNSET...WITHIN 2 HOURS OF FORECAST TIME.

LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST FROM 18Z - 21Z.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AFT 18Z...MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AFT 18Z...MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AFT 18Z...MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. NE WINDS BACKING
TO THE NORTH AT 20-25KT WITH 30-35KT GUSTS.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 20-30 KT WITH 30-40 KT GUSTS.
.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS SHOULD KEEP WINDS TO
AROUND 15 KT OR LESS TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING TO THE S AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SW...THIS SHOULD BRING GUSTS TO 25-30
KT TO ALL WATERS TONIGHT...SO HAVE CONTINUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THEN. THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA SATURDAY-
SUNDAY...AND A SERIES OF STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOWS RESULT IN A
CONTINUING TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS.
THIS LIKELY WILL RESULT IN GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER ALL WATERS
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 40-45
KT SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THESE GUSTS INTO SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD
AS A RESULT TO 5-9 FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND 3-5 FT ON
THE EASTERN SOUND BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

N-NW GALES CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THEN
WINDS START TO DIMINISH AT NIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING...ALL WATERS
SHOULD BE BELOW GALE FORCE GUSTS...HOWEVER SCA CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PREVAIL ACROSS THE OCEAN AND EASTERN WATERS THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT
FOR SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO REACH ALL OF THE WATERS WHEN A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD  A RETURN WSW FLOW FOR
TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH THIS MORNING...THEN LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS INTO
TONIGHT. A MORE STEADY/LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN IS FORECAST FROM
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT - WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER S/E
AREAS. FOR NOW FORECASTING TOTAL RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT-
SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM AROUND A TENTH AN INCH OVER ORANGE
COUNTY TO A HALF AND INCH TO MAYBE THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER
SE CT/E SUFFOLK COUNTY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED DURATION OF
PRECIPITATION OF 24+HOURS...NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS
ANTICIPATED FROM THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT









000
FXUS61 KBGM 311408
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1008 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY...BUT IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY. A CHILLY UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME RAIN SHOWERS...EVENTUALLY MIXING WITH
SNOW SHOWERS AS COOLER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. ONCE THIS SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY BY LATER SUNDAY...DRIER WEATHER...WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES...SHOULD THEN BE THE RULE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...
HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF FURTHER DELAYING MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BUT BASICALLY A DRY DAY FOR MOST...WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS MAINLY WEST OF PENN YAN-CORNING. THEN FOR
TONIGHT...ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BUT ELSEWHERE THE CHANCES WILL ONLY SLOWLY INCREASE AND BE FOCUSED
TO MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
300 AM EDT UPDATE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AND QUIET AND
DRY WEATHER IS PRESENT. THE UPPR LVL TROUGH THAT WILL BRING
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION TODAY IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL WI. THIS
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH AND AMPLIFY OVER THE MIDWEST
THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF NY AND PA. HOWEVER THE MID LVL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
THE CWA. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING OVER THE
FAR SE PORTION OF THE CWA... BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO LAST LONG.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO RETURN OVER THE SE SHORTLY AFTER 18Z
TODAY.

EXPECT THE ONSET OF SHOWERS TO BE LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
WITH SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA AROUND 18Z. SHOWERS
WILL BE SCATTERED LIKE IN NATURE AND WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE UPPR
40S TO LOW 50S... THUS EXPECT ALL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING TO BE RAIN. WHEN TEMPS START TO COOL OFF AFTER 00Z TONIGHT
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. THE CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE PRIMARILY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE TONIGHT IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
440 AM EDT UPDATE...
BY SAT MORNING THE BASE OF THE UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE
OVER SC. THEN... BY 00Z SAT THE MAIN AXIS WILL BE OFF THE EASTERN
CONUS. THE MAIN FORCING WITH THE UPPR LOW WILL NOT IMPACT OUR
REGION... AND THE PATH OF THE UPPR LOW WILL KEEP THE COASTAL
SYSTEM WELL OUT OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER... THE UPPR BRANCH OF THE
POTENT UPPR LOW WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR THE SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA THRU SAT NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AS THE MAIN AXIS MOVES EAST COOLER AIR WILL START TO DRAIN INTO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. 850MB TEMPS WILL START AS
NEGATIVE ONE 12Z SATURDAY... FALL TO NEGATIVE THREE 00Z SUNDAY...
THEN FALL TO NEGATIVE EIGHT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO STRONG
CAA... ALL RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW BY SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL THEN SUPPORT SNOW GROWTH.

SATURDAY EVENING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS LOOK PLAUSIBLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF THE FINGER LAKES. THE
LONGEVITY OF THE FINGER LAKE BANDS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE MEAN
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND AND THE MOISTURE PROFILE RIGHT ABOVE THE SFC.

SUNDAY MORNING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP STARTS TO DROP OFF. UPSLOPE
INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. BUT DUE VERY DRY
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT... THE
CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS ARE SLIM. EXPECT FLURRIES AT
BEST. WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH
WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTY NEAR 30 MPH. THUS
WITH TEMPS ONLY INCREASING INTO THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S... SUN
AFTERNOON WILL BE RATHER CHILLY. SUNDAY EVENING WILL BR DRY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION,

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
315 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AS 00Z MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS.

1 PM THU UPDATE... DEEP UPR-LVL TROUGH ALG THE EAST COAST AT THE
START OF THE PD...WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING AWAY TO THE NE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ITS WAKE...SFC RIDGING...AND ALSO S/WV RIDGING
ALOFT...WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY WX AND MODERATING TEMPS MON-TUE.

OUR NEXT SHOT AT PCPN WILL LIKELY COME TWDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WHEN AN UPR-LVL TROUGH WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE W...ALG WITH A SFC FRONTAL
COMPLEX. AS A RESULT...WE`VE INSERTED SCTD SHWRS STARTING LATER
TUE NGT...THEN PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST WED.

AS ALLUDED TO ABV...READINGS WILL BE ON THE UPSWING NEXT WEEK...WITH
DAILY HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
SCATTERED STRATO CU CONTINUES TO DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING IN WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW. THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION AS SFC LOW PRES OVER LAKE
HURON DROPS SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS EVENING CIGS WILL
LOWER TO AROUND 4K FT WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR THE KSYR/KELM
TERMINALS.

E/SE WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT-SAT NGT...OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN-TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...KAH/MDP
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KOKX 311350
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
950 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY...THEN TRACKS
NORTHEAST TO A POSITION SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
LATE SATURDAY...THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIME
PROVINCES BY SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS
STORM INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF FAST MOVING COLD FRONTS
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.

A 700 HPA SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY OVER N CENTRAL GA...ROUNDING THE
BASE OF A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THIS LOW AND HAVE
IT TRACK SLOWLY NE AND DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
CURRENTLY...WILL WORK TO FORM AN INVERTED TROUGH TO THE N-NW OF
THIS LOW BY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN HAVING
AN AREA OF ISOLD-SCT -SHRA TRACK WNW FROM OFF THE LI COAST BACK
TOWARDS W/NW THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THIS
AS COVERAGE LIKELY WILL BE SPARSE AND INTENSITY QUITE LIGHT.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 850 MB AND HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

TEMPS ON TRACK AND HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ALL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN TAKING A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW DOWN
INTO THE CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN LIFTING IT EAST THEN
NORTHEAST AS IT OPENS TO NEAR/OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE RESULT WILL BE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN BECOMING LIKELY BY LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS ROUGHLY THE S 1/2 OF THE CWA AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN N. THE SPOTTY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...BECOMING MORE
PERIODIC BY AFTERNOON OVER THE S 1/2 OF THE CWA. PRECIPITATION
THEN TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS WELL TO THE
NE SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT IN MOST AREAS...THE
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BEFORE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
COMES IN TO CAUSE ANY MIXING WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW. A POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION COULD BE ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000-1500 FT ACROSS MAINLY
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF S CT...WHERE THE COLD AIR MIGHT ARRIVE IN
TIME TO CAUSE A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW TO MIX IN...IF NOT BRIEFLY
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW...BEFORE ENDING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS EVEN
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION FROM THIS SYSTEM.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WINDS
SHOULD GUSTS TO UP TO 30-35 MPH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND 25-30 MPH OVER WESTERN PORTIONS. AS THE
STORM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT PULLS AWAY THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH OVER MAINLY S CT/LONG ISLAND
AND POSSIBLY NYC/FAR E PORTIONS OF NE NJ SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW
FORECASTING WINDS TO REMAIN JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A WIND ADVISORY WAS ULTIMATELY
NEEDED FOR AT LEAST E SUFFOLK COUNTY AND SE CT. THIS IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW - BUT BASED
ON LATEST GUIDANCE IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT:
FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES...EXPECT VALUES TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

A BLEND OF ECS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 950 HPA NEAR THE COAST AND 925 HPA INLAND...PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY. READINGS SHOULD
BE AROUND 5 TO MAYBE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH
MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM ON SUNDAY...AND
THE RESULTING TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUSTAIN WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE DAYTIME BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SUNDAY
NIGHT. FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS COULD SUPPORT ADVISORY CRITERIA
WIND GUSTS DURING THE DAY...PARTICULARLY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS. SOME
SPOTS COULD EVEN REACH CRITERIA BASED ON SUSTAINED WINDS. ASIDE FROM
THIS...PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS. WIND CHILLS AT DAYBREAK WILL BE AROUND 30 DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ON MONDAY AND MOVES
OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. DRY BOTH DAYS WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES...BUT IS MOISTURE
STARVED. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CITY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT THEN FOLLOWS...AND IS PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH
SOMETIME THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. POPS EVENTUALLY CLIMB INTO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
     PASSING SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD SATURDAY EVENING. ANOTHER LOW IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE SATURDAY AND TRACK ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS...N LESS THAN 10 KT...BECOMING ENE NEAR 10 KT BY 15Z...THEN
NE INCREASING TO NEAR 15 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT AFT 06Z SAT ALONG
THE COAST AND 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 KT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

CLOUDS...VFR CIGS 4 THSD- 5 THSD FT. MVFR CIGS FORECAST MAINLY
AFTER SUNSET...WITHIN 2 HOURS OF FORECAST TIME.

LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST MAINLY 18Z - 21Z.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.TONIGHT-SAT NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. NE-N WINDS 20-25G30-35KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 20-25G30-35KT.
.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS SHOULD KEEP WINDS TO
AROUND 15 KT OR LESS TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING TO THE S AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SW...THIS SHOULD BRING GUSTS TO 25-30
KT TO ALL WATERS TONIGHT...SO HAVE CONTINUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THEN. THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA SATURDAY-
SUNDAY...AND A SERIES OF STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOWS RESULT IN A
CONTINUING TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS.
THIS LIKELY WILL RESULT IN GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER ALL WATERS
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 40-45
KT SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THESE GUSTS INTO SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD
AS A RESULT TO 5-9 FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND 3-5 FT ON
THE EASTERN SOUND BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

N-NW GALES CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THEN
WINDS START TO DIMINISH AT NIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING...ALL WATERS
SHOULD BE BELOW GALE FORCE GUSTS...HOWEVER SCA CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PREVAIL ACROSS THE OCEAN AND EASTERN WATERS THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT
FOR SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO REACH ALL OF THE WATERS WHEN A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD  A RETURN WSW FLOW FOR
TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH THIS MORNING...THEN LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS INTO
TONIGHT. A MORE STEADY/LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN IS FORECAST FROM
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT - WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER S/E
AREAS. FOR NOW FORECASTING TOTAL RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT-
SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM AROUND A TENTH AN INCH OVER ORANGE
COUNTY TO A HALF AND INCH TO MAYBE THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER
SE CT/E SUFFOLK COUNTY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED DURATION OF
PRECIPITATION OF 24+HOURS...NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS
ANTICIPATED FROM THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...GC
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT/PW







000
FXUS61 KALY 311339
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
939 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A POTENT SYSTEM WORKING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...TURNING TO SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM
OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON OVER US BY
SUNDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG SHOULD BE GONE VERY SOON...THEN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.

BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO
THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNON. PREVIOUS FORECAST DESCRIBES
THE IMPORTANT FEATURES THROUGH THE DAY AND IS BELOW...

THE H20 WATER LOOP DEPICTED TWO DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
RESPECTIVELY. THE ONE TO OUR SOUTH WAS GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE THE STRONG ONE WAS IRONICALLY
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS ACROSS MICHIGAN. THE
SECOND STORM HAD MUCH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THE IMPULSE TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. THE OTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH. A WEAK AREA OF
ASCENT WILL DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT DUE TO A DRY ATMOSPHERE
VERY LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED MIXING...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A
SHADE COOLER THAN NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS 50-55 IN THE
VALLEYS...45-50 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THE DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH) LOOKS
TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS INCREASING
AS THE 00Z EUROPEAN/CANADIAN AND THE GFS (AND ITS ALL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS) INDICATE A SIMILAR SCENARIO KEEPING THE OCEAN STORM AND
MOST OF ITS PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST.

WHAT THIS WILL MEAN FOR US IN ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TONIGHT...BUT EVEN MOST OF THESE SHOULD HOLD OFF LATE ENOUGH TO NOT
IMPACT ALL THE TRICK OR TREATERS. IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR A SNOW FLAKES IN THE ADIRONDACK BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
EXTREMELY MINOR AT THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000
FEET AND THE PRECIPITATION LIGHT.

SATURDAY...AS PHASING COMMENCES WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST...IT WILL
REMAIN OVERCAST WITH PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AGAIN THESE
WILL BE LIGHT AND IN MOST CASES...RAIN...WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM WILL BE OFF CAPE COD. IT
LOOKS AS IF ITS HEAVY BANDS OF PRECIPITATION (BOTH THE WARM AND COLD
CONVEYOR BELTS AND ASSOCIATED BANDING) WILL STAY TO OUR EAST. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ON ITS OUTER EDGE WILL SKIM MAINLY OUR EASTERN
TERRAIN...BUT A FEW OF THESE COULD WORK INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST. BY THIS TIME...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DIP WELL BELOW
ZERO EVERYWHERE AND FREEZING LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE TO THE
GROUND. THEREFORE...MOST OF WHAT FALL SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
SNOW...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF IT. A COATING TO A COUPLE OF
INCHES IS POSSIBLE (BUT NOT CERTAIN) OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WHILE A DUSTING CANNOT BE RULED EVEN ON THE VALLEY FLOORS...IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...20S HIGHER TERRAIN. A GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 MPH WILL ADD TO
THE CHILL.

SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOOK TO BE GONE BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CLOUDS LOOK TO
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. NEVERTHELESS IT WILL BE A DOWNRIGHT
COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS NO BETTER THAN MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH GOOD
MIXING...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30-35 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THE WIND WILL SLOWLY ABATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OF REGION...BUT NOT COMPLETELY. ASSUMING THE SKY REMAINS
MOSTLY CLEAR (WHICH WE THINK IT WILL) TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE INTO
THE 20S ACROSS MOST AREAS...UPPER 20S VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 20S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THESE
TWO DAYS. A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON TUESDAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUESDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY START IN THE 20S...HIGHS MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE A LOT OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE
BY WEDNESDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...RANGING UP
TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHWEST.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AFTER IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE FORECAST THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT IN ALL AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODELS
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A MUCH STRONGER TROF AND
MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN. THE ECMWF TROF IS FAIRLY WEAK AND ONLY
SHOWS SCATTERED PCPN.

IT WILL REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR LINGERING IFR FOG CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD AT
KPSF...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z SATURDAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE CLOUD DECK MAY LOWER TO
MVFR LEVELS LATE TONIGHT AT KPOU AND KPSF. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD TO FEATURE A BKN/OVC CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000
FEET FROM THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO START...THEN BECOME
EASTERLY AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS LATER THIS MORNING...THEN BECOME
NORTHERLY AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. RH
VALUES WILL GENERALLY AROUND OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL 75-90 PERCENT.

TODAY WILL START WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CLOUDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS. SOME OF THESE WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY REAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UP TO A
COUPLE OF INCHES COULD COLLECT IN A FEW SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
TURN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...SUNSHINE RETURNS BUT IT WILL BE WINDY AND COLD WITH
GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 30 MPH OR HIGHER. IT WILL BE COLD THAT
DAY AS WELL. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S VALLEYS...AND 40S
MOUNTAINS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY..BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 311147
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
747 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND THEN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...AND THEN WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EARLY SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND BE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 747 AM EDT FRIDAY...SATELLITE LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING SKIES HAVE BECOME PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT AND
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HOWEVER...EXPECTING CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS FROM AN UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES SPREADS EASTWARD INTO THE REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 456 AM EDT FRIDAY...CLOUDY SKIES WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY. THIS
WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN CLOUD COVER...EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 456 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE BEST FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WHERE AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
AND WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY. A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN BE JUST EAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THEN ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOWEVER...AS LOW PRESSURE
AREA MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE COAST...EXPECTING A BETTER CHANCE FOR
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING
HEAVIER QPF WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. HAVE GONE ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND ALSO AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER. SUNDAY
WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT FRIDAY...AN ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WX PATTERN
ANTICIPATED ACRS THE NE CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. LARGE SCALE
PATTERN SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY LATE MONDAY...WITH BUILDING HGHTS FOR
MIDWEEK...BEFORE NEXT TROF DEVELOPS BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
OVERALL...GOOD AGREEMENT BTWN 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND LATEST ENSEMBLE
DATA ON SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
OF SFC FEATURES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE 20S
AND 30S...WITH COLDEST READING ACRS THE NEK OF VT. BY MONDAY...SFC
HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH A DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW AND LLVL WAA. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CLIMB BTWN -1C NEK
TO +1C SLV BY 00Z TUES...DEEP DRY LAYER ACRS OUR CWA. THESE TEMPS
WL RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO L50S ON MONDAY...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

TUES/WEDS...LLVL WAA CONTS INTO TUES WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARMING ANOTHER 3 TO 4 DEGREES WITH VALUES BTWN 3C AND 5C BY 00Z
WEDS...UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS. THESE WARM TEMPS WL
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE U40S MTNS TO MID 50S VALLEYS ON
TUES...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST.
ANOTHER VERY WARM NIGHT IS EXPECT ON TUES NIGHT...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE U30S MTNS TO
MID/UPPER 40S VALLEYS. BY WEDS WEAKENING SFC COLD FRNT AND
ASSOCIATED NARROW RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB RH MOVES ACRS OUR CWA. IN
ADDITION..WEAK ELONGATED 5H VORT IS ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY...SO
HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION LOW LIKELY POPS ACRS NORTHERN NY AND CHC
POPS ACRS THE CPV AND VT. GIVEN THE SYSTEM IS FALLING APART AND
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED...QPF WL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY <.10".
THERMAL PROFILES ARE WELL ABOVE 0C ON TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS...WITH
1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES ABOVE 550DM...SO EXPECT ALL
RAIN...EVEN ABOVE 4000 FT. WEAK LLVL CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND 1ST
BOUNDARY ON WEDS AFTN INTO THURS WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS FALLING
BLW 0C AGAIN...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS SHIFTED OFF THE COAST.

NEXT POTENT 5H VORT WL APPROACH OUR WESTERN CWA BY 12Z
THURS...ALONG WITH SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL AIR. THIS POCKET OF
ENERGY...COMBINED WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE PROFILES...WL
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP. ATTM...THERMAL PROFILES LOOK COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME MIX RAIN/SNOW ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN WITH MAINLY
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. THIS WL BE A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WITH
LIMITED SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE INTERACTION...SO QPF/SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT. ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AIR WL
FOLLOW ON THURS INTO FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BEFORE ANOTHER WARM UP
OCCURS OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS VERY CHANGEABLE PATTERN OVER THE
NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS WITH FEATURE RAPID WARM UPS AND COOL
DOWNS...WITH OVERALL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND NEAR NORMAL CHCS FOR
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...SFC ANALYSIS PLACES 1012MB LOW PRES OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NY/LAKE ONTARIO. CRNT OBS SHOW
VFR CONDITIONS ACRS OUR TAF SITES WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR AT
SLK...WHICH SHOULD BECOME VFR SHORTLY. THINKING LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY WL APPROACH MSS BY 16Z AND INTO SLK BTWN 18-20Z
TODAY...WITH DEVELOPING MVFR CIGS. THINKING THIS ACTIVITY WL HAVE
A HARD TIME SPREADING EAST THIS EVENING WITH BEST MOISTURE
DROPPING TO OUR SOUTHWEST...ALONG WITH STRONGEST S/W ENERGY.
EXPECTING SHOWERS TO LINGER THIS EVENING ACRS NORTHERN NY TAF
SITES...WITH SOME MIX WITH SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK AFT 04Z. THIS
COULD REDUCE VIS AT TIMES TO IFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE COMBINATION OF MID LVL MOISTURE AND ENERGY ALOFT WL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP WITH IFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE AT
SLK...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WL LINGER INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES BY
MONDAY. ALSO...BREEZY TO GUSTY NORTH WINDS WL DEVELOP LATE SAT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH SFC GUSTS BTWN 20 AND 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 456 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE KCXX 88D DOPPLER RADAR IN
COLCHESTER VERMONT IS OUT OF SERVICE AT THIS TIME. ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIANS HAVE CHECKED THE RADAR AND FOUND A PROBLEM WITH HIGH
VOLTAGE ARCING. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS WILL BE AT THE RADAR SITE
LATER THIS MORNING TO TRY AND FIX THIS PROBLEM. NO ESTIMATE IS
AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS TO THE WHEN THE RADAR WILL BE RETURNED
TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 311144
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
744 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY...THEN TRACKS
NORTHEAST TO A POSITION SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
LATE SATURDAY...THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIME
PROVINCES BY SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS
STORM INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF FAST MOVING COLD FRONTS
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ALREADY HAVE A 1010 HPA LOW OFF THE NC COAST AT 7Z. A 700 HPA
SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY OVER N CENTRAL GA...ROUNDING THE BASE OF A
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THIS LOW AND HAVE IT TRACK
SLOWLY NE AND DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY CURRENTLY...WILL WORK
TO FORM AN INVERTED TROUGH TO THE N-NW OF THIS LOW BY THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN HAVING AN AREA OF ISOLD-
SCT SHRA TRACK WNW FROM OFF THE S FORK OF LONG ISLAND BACK TOWARDS
SW CT THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THIS - AS
COVERAGE LIKELY WILL BE QUITE THIN AND INTENSITY QUITE LIGHT.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD COVER TODAY FROM THE
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 850
MB AND HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ALL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN TAKING A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW DOWN
INTO THE CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN LIFTING IT EAST THEN
NORTHEAST AS IT OPENS TO NEAR/OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE RESULT WILL BE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN BECOMING LIKELY BY LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS ROUGHLY THE S 1/2 OF THE CWA AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN N. THE SPOTTY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...BECOMING MORE
PERIODIC BY AFTERNOON OVER THE S 1/2 OF THE CWA. PRECIPITATION
THEN TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS WELL TO THE
NE SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT IN MOST AREAS...THE
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BEFORE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
COMES IN TO CAUSE ANY MIXING WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW. A POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION COULD BE ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000-1500 FT ACROSS MAINLY
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF S CT...WHERE THE COLD AIR MIGHT ARRIVE IN
TIME TO CAUSE A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW TO MIX IN...IF NOT BRIEFLY
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW...BEFORE ENDING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS EVEN
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION FROM THIS SYSTEM.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WINDS
SHOULD GUSTS TO UP TO 30-35 MPH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND 25-30 MPH OVER WESTERN PORTIONS. AS THE
STORM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT PULLS AWAY THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH OVER MAINLY S CT/LONG ISLAND
AND POSSIBLY NYC/FAR E PORTIONS OF NE NJ SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW
FORECASTING WINDS TO REMAIN JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A WIND ADVISORY WAS ULTIMATELY
NEEDED FOR AT LEAST E SUFFOLK COUNTY AND SE CT. THIS IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW - BUT BASED
ON LATEST GUIDANCE IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT:
FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES...EXPECT VALUES TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

A BLEND OF ECS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 950 HPA NEAR THE COAST AND 925 HPA INLAND...PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY. READINGS SHOULD
BE AROUND 5 TO MAYBE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH
MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM ON SUNDAY...AND
THE RESULTING TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUSTAIN WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE DAYTIME BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SUNDAY
NIGHT. FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS COULD SUPPORT ADVISORY CRITERIA
WIND GUSTS DURING THE DAY...PARTICULARLY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS. SOME
SPOTS COULD EVEN REACH CRITERIA BASED ON SUSTAINED WINDS. ASIDE FROM
THIS...PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS. WIND CHILLS AT DAYBREAK WILL BE AROUND 30 DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ON MONDAY AND MOVES
OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. DRY BOTH DAYS WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES...BUT IS MOISTURE
STARVED. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CITY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT THEN FOLLOWS...AND IS PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH
SOMETIME THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. POPS EVENTUALLY CLIMB INTO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
...PASSING SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD SATURDAY EVENING. ANOTHER LOW IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE SATURDAY AND TRACK ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS...N LESS THAN 10 KT...BECOMING ENE NEAR 10 KT BY 15Z...THEN
NE INCREASING TO NEAR 15 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT AFT 06Z SAT ALONG
THE COAST AND 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 KT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

CLOUDS...VFR CIGS 4 THSD- 5 THSD FT. MVFR CIGS FORECAST MAINLY
AFTER SUNSET...WITHIN 2 HOURS OF FORECAST TIME.

LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST MAINLY 18Z - 21Z.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.TONIGHT-SAT NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. NE-N WINDS 20-25G30-35KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 20-25G30-35KT.
.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS SHOULD KEEP WINDS TO
AROUND 15 KT OR LESS TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING TO THE S AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SW...THIS SHOULD BRING GUSTS TO 25-30
KT TO ALL WATERS TONIGHT...SO HAVE CONTINUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THEN. THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA SATURDAY-
SUNDAY...AND A SERIES OF STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOWS RESULT IN A
CONTINUING TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS.
THIS LIKELY WILL RESULT IN GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER ALL WATERS
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 40-45
KT SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THESE GUSTS INTO SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD
AS A RESULT TO 5-9 FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND 3-5 FT ON
THE EASTERN SOUND BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

N-NW GALES CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THEN
WINDS START TO DIMINISH AT NIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING...ALL WATERS
SHOULD BE BELOW GALE FORCE GUSTS...HOWEVER SCA CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PREVAIL ACROSS THE OCEAN AND EASTERN WATERS THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT
FOR SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO REACH ALL OF THE WATERS WHEN A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD  A RETURN WSW FLOW FOR
TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH THIS MORNING...THEN LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS INTO
TONIGHT. A MORE STEADY/LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN IS FORECAST FROM
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT - WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER S/E
AREAS. FOR NOW FORECASTING TOTAL RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT-
SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM A TENTH AN INCH OVER ORANGE COUNTY TO
A HALF AND INCH TO MAYBE AN INCH OVER SE CT/E SUFFOLK COUNTY.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED DURATION OF PRECIPITATION OF 24+HOURS...NO
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED FROM THIS SYSTEM AT
THIS TIME.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...GC
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT









000
FXUS61 KBUF 311139
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
739 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS THE VICINITY OF LAKE
ONTARIO TODAY...WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS
WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DRAWS CLOSER TOWARDS LAKE ERIE. BEHIND THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIQUID...ALTHOUGH A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING DISPLAYS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
LAKE HURON...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
VICINITY OF LAKE ONTARIO. REGIONAL RADARS DISPLAY RAIN SHOWERS
BLOSSOMING THIS MORNING OVER LAKE ERIE...WITH ACTIVITY EXPANDING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN NIAGARA FRONTIER AND TOWARDS WESTERN LAKE
ONTARIO ALONG THE WARM FRONT BOUNDARY. COOL AIR ALOFT OVER THE
WARMER LAKES IS BRINGING ENOUGH INSTABILITY THIS MORNING TO ENHANCE
THESE SHOWERS OVER THE WATER BODIES. OTHERWISE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN STRATUS WHILE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO INCREASE.
THIS WILL KEEP WESTERN NEW YORK RATHER CLOUDY...WHILE A FEW BREAKS
ARE POSSIBLE TO AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING DISPLAYS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BASE OF A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DROP
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN US BY SATURDAY MORNING. ON THE 1.5 PV
SURFACE...A SPLIT IN THIS SHORTWAVE IS SEEN...WITH THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN EASTERN US...WHILE A DOWNWARD INTRUSION
OF ENERGY LINGERS OVER THE CANADIAN NIAGARA PENINSULA TONIGHT.

THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE THE SURFACE LOW
SOUTHEASTWARD...WITH THE WEAK LOW DROPPING TOWARDS THE WESTERN HALF
OF LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING AS LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS
FORMS ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE OVERNIGHT...WITH A SECONDARY LOW
DEEPENING. TRACKING THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL CENTER THE BETTER
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WE WILL FIND LIKELY SHOWERS REACHING WNY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS REMAINING
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. TOWARDS THE EAST...WHICH WILL
LARGELY REMAIN AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCES OF THE SURFACE LOW TODAY...
LOW CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLAY FOR SHOWERS...WITH ANY ACTIVITY
LARGELY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE LINGERING UPPER LEVEL PV INTRUSION/ENERGY ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR
ADDITIONAL LIFT OVERNIGHT. A STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST WIND AROUND
THIS SECONDARY...DEEPENING ATLANTIC COASTLINE LOW WILL FOCUS LOW
LEVEL MOIST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN END OF THE
LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE OVERNIGHT. THIS LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...COMBINED WITH LIFT ALOFT WILL BRING CATEGORICAL LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS TOWARDS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK ZONES LATER OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST THAT ALL FALLING PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WILL REMAIN AS LIQUID.

CLOUDS WILL REMAIN RATHER THICK THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...WHICH IN
ADDITION TO THE LOWERING SUN ANGLE WILL PROVIDE FOR A SMALL DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE. HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY BEST THEIR MORNING
TEMPERATURES BY 5-10 DEGREES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. A
FEW 50S ARE POSSIBLE SE OF LAKE ONTARIO. TONIGHT LOWS WILL DROP OFF
TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. WARMEST AREAS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY BE TO
THE SW OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE YET STILL WARM
LAKE ONTARIO WILL LIKELY KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEEKEND WILL START OFF CHILLY AND WET AS A COMPLEX LOW DEVELOPS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
ONLY HAVE A SMALL IMPACT ON OUR REGION WITH AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL DRIVE OUR
WEATHER ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW...BUT 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
COOL FROM WEST TO EAST. THE NAM/SREF TEND TO BE WARMER THAN GFS/RGEM
GUIDANCE...BUT USING A CONSENSUS 850MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO
-3C TO -5C SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO MIX
WITH SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN WESTERN
AREAS AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE BEST LIFT WILL BE BELOW
700MB...PRIMARILY FROM UPSLOPING AND MODEST LAKE ENHANCEMENT. WITH
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ANY ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
SATURDAY WOULD BE LIGHT AND CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR FORECAST TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM
CENTRAL CANADA. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL...WITH
LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE KEEPING THE SURFACE TO
700MB COLUMN MOIST. HOWEVER...THE DRY AIR ALOFT WILL HINDER SNOW
WITH MOST OF THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE DRY. IT MAY BE JUST COOL
ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS...OR PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AS DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ACROSS
THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS WHERE THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHTLY LONGER FETCH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND MORE MOISTURE FROM THE
COASTAL LOW. AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO BUILD IN...LINGERING
PRECIPITATION SHOULD FIZZLE OUT ON SUNDAY...EVOLVING INTO
LAKE-INDUCED STRATUS. IT STILL APPEARS ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE VERY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING IN MOST AREAS
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY
RESULT IN A FEW ICY SPOTS SATURDAY NIGHT IF THERE ARE ANY WET SPOTS
FROM PRECIPITATION EARLIER IN THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...BRINGING FAIR
WEATHER AND GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES. CLOUDS SHOULD LAST MUCH OF THE
DAY ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS WITH COOL AIR ALOFT RESULTING IN LAKE
ENHANCED STRATUS. SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR THE LAKES AND IN WESTERN SECTIONS. HIGHS WILL CHILLY...ONLY BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...WITH FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. FLOW BACKING TO
THE SOUTHWEST WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...PUSHING TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE THE 50 DEGREE MARK MONDAY
AND BY TUESDAY MANY AREAS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS
A 60 DEGREE READING OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE TYPICALLY
WARMER SPOTS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE FINGER LAKES.
ALTHOUGH THE WARM ADVECTION WILL PUT AN END TO ANY LAKE EFFECT CLOUD
COVER...THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO GO
AROUND MONDAY AND TUESDAY COURTESY OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.

AFTER A DRY START TO THE WEEK...WE WILL SEE SHOWERS CREEP BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
LOW LIFT FROM WESTERN ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. AS THE LOW
TRACKS INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC...IT WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN WESTERN AREAS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE FRONTOGENETIC AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND RETURN
FLOW SUPPLYING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER LAKES
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

00Z/12Z MODEL ECMWF/GFS/GGEM GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT FOR THE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TIMEFRAME...WITH SOME GUIDANCE DEVELOPING A
FRONTAL WAVE WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE FORECASTING A MORE PROGRESSIVE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES...WILL JUST COVER THE
PERIOD WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING AND USE A MULTI-MODEL
BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES WHICH IS ALSO PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 12Z MAINLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION.
WITHIN AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE A DECK OF STRATUS HAS
LOWERED TO MVFR OVER THE NORTHERN NIAGARA FRONTIER. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
FARTHER NORTHWARD...AND DAYTIME MIXING INCREASES.

WILL CONTINUE THE VCSH AND ADD -DZ TO THE KBUF/KIAG TAFS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING FOR THESE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...WITH SHOWERS ENDING AS THEY LIFT NORTHWARD.

LATER IN THE DAY THESE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AS THE WARM FRONT`S PARENT LOW DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
LAKE ERIE. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE PLACED IN THESE TAFS...WHILE
HOLDING JUST A VCSH FOR THE KART TERMINAL AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
LOCATIONS WHERE RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SETTLE
TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS LOW PRESSURE OVER
LAKE ERIE WILL REFORM AND INTENSIFY EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE
TONIGHT. AS THE LOW SURFACE PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION...COMBINED
WITH THE NEARING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT...AGAIN MOST LIKELY FARTHER WESTWARD.

BEHIND THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST. COOLER AIR FLOWING BEHIND THIS LOW PRESSURE
COMBINED WITH THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY FORM MVFR AND LATER
IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. CLIMATOLOGY PLACES IFR AT BETTER
THAN 50 PERCENT FOR KJHW...WHILE THE NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO
MAY ALSO BRING IFR CIGS FOR KROC...IN ADDITION TO KIAG AND KBUF.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR WITH SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND
FLURRIES.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN
END OF LAKE ERIE TODAY WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS TO THE LAKES.

A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE
THIS WEEKEND...AND NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND THIS LOW WILL INCREASE
FIRST ON LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SATURDAY MORNING ON LAKE
ERIE.

IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS...WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 4 TO 7 FEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. WHILE WAVES WILL BE GREATEST ON THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND ALSO THE WESTERN END OF LAKE
ERIE...HAVE ISSUED SCA FOR THE ENTIRE LAKE ONTARIO REGION...AND
THE EASTERN HALF OF LAKE ERIE AS WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD TOP SCA
THRESHOLDS AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND. THESE NORTHEASTERLY TO LATER THIS
WEEKEND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BRING SCA CONDITIONS
TO THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY
         FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 1 AM
         EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST
         MONDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT TO 1 AM EST
         MONDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/WOOD
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 311135
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
735 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND THEN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...AND THEN WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EARLY SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND BE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 456 AM EDT FRIDAY...CLOUDY SKIES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY. THIS WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS BY THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN CLOUD
COVER...EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 456 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE BEST FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WHERE AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
AND WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY. A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN BE JUST EAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THEN ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOWEVER...AS LOW PRESSURE
AREA MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE COAST...EXPECTING A BETTER CHANCE FOR
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING
HEAVIER QPF WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. HAVE GONE ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND ALSO AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER. SUNDAY
WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT FRIDAY...AN ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WX PATTERN
ANTICIPATED ACRS THE NE CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. LARGE SCALE
PATTERN SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY LATE MONDAY...WITH BUILDING HGHTS FOR
MIDWEEK...BEFORE NEXT TROF DEVELOPS BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
OVERALL...GOOD AGREEMENT BTWN 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND LATEST ENSEMBLE
DATA ON SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
OF SFC FEATURES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE 20S
AND 30S...WITH COLDEST READING ACRS THE NEK OF VT. BY MONDAY...SFC
HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH A DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW AND LLVL WAA. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CLIMB BTWN -1C NEK
TO +1C SLV BY 00Z TUES...DEEP DRY LAYER ACRS OUR CWA. THESE TEMPS
WL RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO L50S ON MONDAY...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

TUES/WEDS...LLVL WAA CONTS INTO TUES WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARMING ANOTHER 3 TO 4 DEGREES WITH VALUES BTWN 3C AND 5C BY 00Z
WEDS...UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS. THESE WARM TEMPS WL
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE U40S MTNS TO MID 50S VALLEYS ON
TUES...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST.
ANOTHER VERY WARM NIGHT IS EXPECT ON TUES NIGHT...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE U30S MTNS TO
MID/UPPER 40S VALLEYS. BY WEDS WEAKENING SFC COLD FRNT AND
ASSOCIATED NARROW RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB RH MOVES ACRS OUR CWA. IN
ADDITION..WEAK ELONGATED 5H VORT IS ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY...SO
HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION LOW LIKELY POPS ACRS NORTHERN NY AND CHC
POPS ACRS THE CPV AND VT. GIVEN THE SYSTEM IS FALLING APART AND
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED...QPF WL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY <.10".
THERMAL PROFILES ARE WELL ABOVE 0C ON TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS...WITH
1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES ABOVE 550DM...SO EXPECT ALL
RAIN...EVEN ABOVE 4000 FT. WEAK LLVL CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND 1ST
BOUNDARY ON WEDS AFTN INTO THURS WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS FALLING
BLW 0C AGAIN...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS SHIFTED OFF THE COAST.

NEXT POTENT 5H VORT WL APPROACH OUR WESTERN CWA BY 12Z
THURS...ALONG WITH SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL AIR. THIS POCKET OF
ENERGY...COMBINED WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE PROFILES...WL
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP. ATTM...THERMAL PROFILES LOOK COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME MIX RAIN/SNOW ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN WITH MAINLY
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. THIS WL BE A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WITH
LIMITED SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE INTERACTION...SO QPF/SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT. ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AIR WL
FOLLOW ON THURS INTO FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BEFORE ANOTHER WARM UP
OCCURS OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS VERY CHANGEABLE PATTERN OVER THE
NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS WITH FEATURE RAPID WARM UPS AND COOL
DOWNS...WITH OVERALL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND NEAR NORMAL CHCS FOR
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...SFC ANALYSIS PLACES 1012MB LOW PRES OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NY/LAKE ONTARIO. CRNT OBS SHOW
VFR CONDITIONS ACRS OUR TAF SITES WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR AT
SLK...WHICH SHOULD BECOME VFR SHORTLY. THINKING LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY WL APPROACH MSS BY 16Z AND INTO SLK BTWN 18-20Z
TODAY...WITH DEVELOPING MVFR CIGS. THINKING THIS ACTIVITY WL HAVE
A HARD TIME SPREADING EAST THIS EVENING WITH BEST MOISTURE
DROPPING TO OUR SOUTHWEST...ALONG WITH STRONGEST S/W ENERGY.
EXPECTING SHOWERS TO LINGER THIS EVENING ACRS NORTHERN NY TAF
SITES...WITH SOME MIX WITH SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK AFT 04Z. THIS
COULD REDUCE VIS AT TIMES TO IFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE COMBINATION OF MID LVL MOISTURE AND ENERGY ALOFT WL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP WITH IFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE AT
SLK...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WL LINGER INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES BY
MONDAY. ALSO...BREEZY TO GUSTY NORTH WINDS WL DEVELOP LATE SAT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH SFC GUSTS BTWN 20 AND 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 456 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE KCXX 88D DOPPLER RADAR IN
COLCHESTER VERMONT IS OUT OF SERVICE AT THIS TIME. ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIANS HAVE CHECKED THE RADAR AND FOUND A PROBLEM WITH HIGH
VOLTAGE ARCING. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS WILL BE AT THE RADAR SITE
LATER THIS MORNING TO TRY AND FIX THIS PROBLEM. NO ESTIMATE IS
AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS TO THE WHEN THE RADAR WILL BE RETURNED
TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KALY 311052
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
652 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A POTENT SYSTEM WORKING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...TURNING TO SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM
OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON OVER US BY
SUNDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 530 AM EDT...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WITH
LITTLE OR NO WIND.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT FALL ALL THAT MUCH
MORE...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 20S OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT.

FILTERED SUNSHINE WILL START THE DAY OUT TODAY...WITH A GENERAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...EXCEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

THE H20 WATER LOOP DEPICTED TWO DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
RESPECTIVELY. THE ONE TO OUR SOUTH WAS GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE THE STRONG ONE WAS IRONICALLY
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS ACROSS MICHIGAN. THE
SECOND STORM HAD MUCH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THE IMPULSE TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. THE OTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH. A WEAK AREA OF
ASCENT WILL DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT DUE TO A DRY ATMOSPHERE
VERY LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED MIXING...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A
SHADE COOLER THAN NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS 50-55 IN THE
VALLEYS...45-50 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THE DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH) LOOKS
TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS INCREASING
AS THE 00Z EUROPEAN/CANADIAN AND THE GFS (AND ITS ALL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS) INDICATE A SIMILAR SCENARIO KEEPING THE OCEAN STORM AND
MOST OF ITS PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST.

WHAT THIS WILL MEAN FOR US IN ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TONIGHT...BUT EVEN MOST OF THESE SHOULD HOLD OFF LATE ENOUGH TO NOT
IMPACT ALL THE TRICK OR TREATERS. IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR A SNOW FLAKES IN THE ADIRONDACK BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
EXTREMELY MINOR AT THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000
FEET AND THE PRECIPITATION LIGHT.

SATURDAY...AS PHASING COMMENCES WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST...IT WILL
REMAIN OVERCAST WITH PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AGAIN THESE
WILL BE LIGHT AND IN MOST CASES...RAIN...WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM WILL BE OFF CAPE COD. IT
LOOKS AS IF ITS HEAVY BANDS OF PRECIPITATION (BOTH THE WARM AND COLD
CONVEYOR BELTS AND ASSOCIATED BANDING) WILL STAY TO OUR EAST. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ON ITS OUTER EDGE WILL SKIM MAINLY OUR EASTERN
TERRAIN...BUT A FEW OF THESE COULD WORK INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST. BY THIS TIME...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DIP WELL BELOW
ZERO EVERYWHERE AND FREEZING LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE TO THE
GROUND. THEREFORE...MOST OF WHAT FALL SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
SNOW...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF IT. A COATING TO A COUPLE OF
INCHES IS POSSIBLE (BUT NOT CERTAIN) OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WHILE A DUSTING CANNOT BE RULED EVEN ON THE VALLEY FLOORS...IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...20S HIGHER TERRAIN. A GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 MPH WILL ADD TO
THE CHILL.

SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOOK TO BE GONE BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CLOUDS LOOK TO
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. NEVERTHELESS IT WILL BE A DOWNRIGHT
COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS NO BETTER THAN MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH GOOD
MIXING...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30-35 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THE WIND WILL SLOWLY ABATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OF REGION...BUT NOT COMPLETELY. ASSUMING THE SKY REMAINS
MOSTLY CLEAR (WHICH WE THINK IT WILL) TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE INTO
THE 20S ACROSS MOST AREAS...UPPER 20S VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 20S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THESE
TWO DAYS. A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON TUESDAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUESDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY START IN THE 20S...HIGHS MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE A LOT OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE
BY WEDNESDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...RANGING UP
TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHWEST.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AFTER IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE FORECAST THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT IN ALL AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODELS
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A MUCH STRONGER TROF AND
MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN. THE ECMWF TROF IS FAIRLY WEAK AND ONLY
SHOWS SCATTERED PCPN.

IT WILL REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR LINGERING IFR FOG CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD AT
KPSF...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z SATURDAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE CLOUD DECK MAY LOWER TO
MVFR LEVELS LATE TONIGHT AT KPOU AND KPSF. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD TO FEATURE A BKN/OVC CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000
FEET FROM THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO START...THEN BECOME
EASTERLY AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS LATER THIS MORNING...THEN BECOME
NORTHERLY AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. RH
VALUES WILL GENERALLY AROUND OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL 75-90 PERCENT.

TODAY WILL START WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CLOUDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS. SOME OF THESE WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY REAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UP TO A
COUPLE OF INCHES COULD COLLECT IN A FEW SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
TURN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...SUNSHINE RETURNS BUT IT WILL BE WINDY AND COLD WITH
GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 30 MPH OR HIGHER. IT WILL BE COLD THAT
DAY AS WELL. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S VALLEYS...AND 40S
MOUNTAINS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY..BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV













000
FXUS61 KALY 311052
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
652 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A POTENT SYSTEM WORKING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...TURNING TO SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM
OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON OVER US BY
SUNDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 530 AM EDT...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WITH
LITTLE OR NO WIND.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT FALL ALL THAT MUCH
MORE...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 20S OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT.

FILTERED SUNSHINE WILL START THE DAY OUT TODAY...WITH A GENERAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...EXCEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

THE H20 WATER LOOP DEPICTED TWO DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
RESPECTIVELY. THE ONE TO OUR SOUTH WAS GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE THE STRONG ONE WAS IRONICALLY
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS ACROSS MICHIGAN. THE
SECOND STORM HAD MUCH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THE IMPULSE TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. THE OTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH. A WEAK AREA OF
ASCENT WILL DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT DUE TO A DRY ATMOSPHERE
VERY LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED MIXING...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A
SHADE COOLER THAN NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS 50-55 IN THE
VALLEYS...45-50 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THE DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH) LOOKS
TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS INCREASING
AS THE 00Z EUROPEAN/CANADIAN AND THE GFS (AND ITS ALL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS) INDICATE A SIMILAR SCENARIO KEEPING THE OCEAN STORM AND
MOST OF ITS PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST.

WHAT THIS WILL MEAN FOR US IN ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TONIGHT...BUT EVEN MOST OF THESE SHOULD HOLD OFF LATE ENOUGH TO NOT
IMPACT ALL THE TRICK OR TREATERS. IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR A SNOW FLAKES IN THE ADIRONDACK BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
EXTREMELY MINOR AT THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000
FEET AND THE PRECIPITATION LIGHT.

SATURDAY...AS PHASING COMMENCES WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST...IT WILL
REMAIN OVERCAST WITH PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AGAIN THESE
WILL BE LIGHT AND IN MOST CASES...RAIN...WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM WILL BE OFF CAPE COD. IT
LOOKS AS IF ITS HEAVY BANDS OF PRECIPITATION (BOTH THE WARM AND COLD
CONVEYOR BELTS AND ASSOCIATED BANDING) WILL STAY TO OUR EAST. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ON ITS OUTER EDGE WILL SKIM MAINLY OUR EASTERN
TERRAIN...BUT A FEW OF THESE COULD WORK INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST. BY THIS TIME...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DIP WELL BELOW
ZERO EVERYWHERE AND FREEZING LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE TO THE
GROUND. THEREFORE...MOST OF WHAT FALL SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
SNOW...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF IT. A COATING TO A COUPLE OF
INCHES IS POSSIBLE (BUT NOT CERTAIN) OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WHILE A DUSTING CANNOT BE RULED EVEN ON THE VALLEY FLOORS...IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...20S HIGHER TERRAIN. A GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 MPH WILL ADD TO
THE CHILL.

SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOOK TO BE GONE BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CLOUDS LOOK TO
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. NEVERTHELESS IT WILL BE A DOWNRIGHT
COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS NO BETTER THAN MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH GOOD
MIXING...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30-35 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THE WIND WILL SLOWLY ABATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OF REGION...BUT NOT COMPLETELY. ASSUMING THE SKY REMAINS
MOSTLY CLEAR (WHICH WE THINK IT WILL) TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE INTO
THE 20S ACROSS MOST AREAS...UPPER 20S VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 20S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THESE
TWO DAYS. A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON TUESDAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUESDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY START IN THE 20S...HIGHS MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE A LOT OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE
BY WEDNESDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...RANGING UP
TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHWEST.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AFTER IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE FORECAST THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT IN ALL AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODELS
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A MUCH STRONGER TROF AND
MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN. THE ECMWF TROF IS FAIRLY WEAK AND ONLY
SHOWS SCATTERED PCPN.

IT WILL REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR LINGERING IFR FOG CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD AT
KPSF...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z SATURDAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE CLOUD DECK MAY LOWER TO
MVFR LEVELS LATE TONIGHT AT KPOU AND KPSF. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD TO FEATURE A BKN/OVC CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000
FEET FROM THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO START...THEN BECOME
EASTERLY AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS LATER THIS MORNING...THEN BECOME
NORTHERLY AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. RH
VALUES WILL GENERALLY AROUND OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL 75-90 PERCENT.

TODAY WILL START WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CLOUDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS. SOME OF THESE WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY REAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UP TO A
COUPLE OF INCHES COULD COLLECT IN A FEW SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
TURN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...SUNSHINE RETURNS BUT IT WILL BE WINDY AND COLD WITH
GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 30 MPH OR HIGHER. IT WILL BE COLD THAT
DAY AS WELL. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S VALLEYS...AND 40S
MOUNTAINS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY..BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV













000
FXUS61 KBGM 311047
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
647 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...PERHAPS BRINGING SOME RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES AWAY BY LATER
SUNDAY...DRIER WEATHER...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES...SHOULD
THEN BE THE RULE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM EDT UPDATE...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ON TEMPS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THIS
MORNING. DENSE FOG HAVE MANAGED TO DEVELOP OVER LOCATIONS THAT
HAVE SEEN PERIODS OF CLEAR SKIES LAST NIGHT. EXPECT FOG TO LIFT
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A STORM SYSTEM IS SLOWLY BUT SURELY
IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE WESTERN CWA AFTER 18Z. FORECAST OVERALL IS IN GOOD SHAPE. FORE
MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ PREVIOUS FORECAST BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
300 AM EDT UPDATE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AND QUIET AND
DRY WEATHER IS PRESENT. THE UPPR LVL TROUGH THAT WILL BRING
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION TODAY IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL WI. THIS
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH AND AMPLIFY OVER THE MIDWEST
THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF NY AND PA. HOWEVER THE MID LVL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
THE CWA. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING OVER THE
FAR SE PORTION OF THE CWA... BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO LAST LONG.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO RETURN OVER THE SE SHORTLY AFTER 18Z
TODAY.

EXPECT THE ONSET OF SHOWERS TO BE LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
WITH SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA AROUND 18Z. SHOWERS
WILL BE SCATTERED LIKE IN NATURE AND WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE UPPR
40S TO LOW 50S... THUS EXPECT ALL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING TO BE RAIN. WHEN TEMPS START TO COOL OFF AFTER 00Z TONIGHT
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. THE CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE PRIMARILY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE TONIGHT IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
440 AM EDT UPDATE...
BY SAT MORNING THE BASE OF THE UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE
OVER SC. THEN... BY 00Z SAT THE MAIN AXIS WILL BE OFF THE EASTERN
CONUS. THE MAIN FORCING WITH THE UPPR LOW WILL NOT IMPACT OUR
REGION... AND THE PATH OF THE UPPR LOW WILL KEEP THE COASTAL
SYSTEM WELL OUT OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER... THE UPPR BRANCH OF THE
POTENT UPPR LOW WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR THE SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA THRU SAT NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AS THE MAIN AXIS MOVES EAST COOLER AIR WILL START TO DRAIN INTO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. 850MB TEMPS WILL START AS
NEGATIVE ONE 12Z SATURDAY... FALL TO NEGATIVE THREE 00Z SUNDAY...
THEN FALL TO NEGATIVE EIGHT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO STRONG
CAA... ALL RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW BY SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL THEN SUPPORT SNOW GROWTH.

SATURDAY EVENING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS LOOK PLAUSIBLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF THE FINGER LAKES. THE
LONGEVITY OF THE FINGER LAKE BANDS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE MEAN
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND AND THE MOISTURE PROFILE RIGHT ABOVE THE SFC.

SUNDAY MORNING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP STARTS TO DROP OFF. UPSLOPE
INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. BUT DUE VERY DRY
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT... THE
CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS ARE SLIM. EXPECT FLURRIES AT
BEST. WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH
WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTY NEAR 30 MPH. THUS
WITH TEMPS ONLY INCREASING INTO THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S... SUN
AFTERNOON WILL BE RATHER CHILLY. SUNDAY EVENING WILL BR DRY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION,

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
315 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AS 00Z MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS.

1 PM THU UPDATE... DEEP UPR-LVL TROUGH ALG THE EAST COAST AT THE
START OF THE PD...WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING AWAY TO THE NE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ITS WAKE...SFC RIDGING...AND ALSO S/WV RIDGING
ALOFT...WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY WX AND MODERATING TEMPS MON-TUE.

OUR NEXT SHOT AT PCPN WILL LIKELY COME TWDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WHEN AN UPR-LVL TROUGH WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE W...ALG WITH A SFC FRONTAL
COMPLEX. AS A RESULT...WE`VE INSERTED SCTD SHWRS STARTING LATER
TUE NGT...THEN PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST WED.

AS ALLUDED TO ABV...READINGS WILL BE ON THE UPSWING NEXT WEEK...WITH
DAILY HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
SCATTERED STRATO CU CONTINUES TO DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING IN WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW. THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION AS SFC LOW PRES OVER LAKE
HURON DROPS SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS EVENING CIGS WILL
LOWER TO AROUND 4K FT WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR THE KSYR/KELM
TERMINALS.

E/SE WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT-SAT NGT...OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN-TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 311047
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
647 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...PERHAPS BRINGING SOME RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES AWAY BY LATER
SUNDAY...DRIER WEATHER...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES...SHOULD
THEN BE THE RULE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM EDT UPDATE...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ON TEMPS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THIS
MORNING. DENSE FOG HAVE MANAGED TO DEVELOP OVER LOCATIONS THAT
HAVE SEEN PERIODS OF CLEAR SKIES LAST NIGHT. EXPECT FOG TO LIFT
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A STORM SYSTEM IS SLOWLY BUT SURELY
IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE WESTERN CWA AFTER 18Z. FORECAST OVERALL IS IN GOOD SHAPE. FORE
MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ PREVIOUS FORECAST BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
300 AM EDT UPDATE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AND QUIET AND
DRY WEATHER IS PRESENT. THE UPPR LVL TROUGH THAT WILL BRING
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION TODAY IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL WI. THIS
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH AND AMPLIFY OVER THE MIDWEST
THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF NY AND PA. HOWEVER THE MID LVL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
THE CWA. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING OVER THE
FAR SE PORTION OF THE CWA... BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO LAST LONG.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO RETURN OVER THE SE SHORTLY AFTER 18Z
TODAY.

EXPECT THE ONSET OF SHOWERS TO BE LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
WITH SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA AROUND 18Z. SHOWERS
WILL BE SCATTERED LIKE IN NATURE AND WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE UPPR
40S TO LOW 50S... THUS EXPECT ALL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING TO BE RAIN. WHEN TEMPS START TO COOL OFF AFTER 00Z TONIGHT
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. THE CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE PRIMARILY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE TONIGHT IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
440 AM EDT UPDATE...
BY SAT MORNING THE BASE OF THE UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE
OVER SC. THEN... BY 00Z SAT THE MAIN AXIS WILL BE OFF THE EASTERN
CONUS. THE MAIN FORCING WITH THE UPPR LOW WILL NOT IMPACT OUR
REGION... AND THE PATH OF THE UPPR LOW WILL KEEP THE COASTAL
SYSTEM WELL OUT OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER... THE UPPR BRANCH OF THE
POTENT UPPR LOW WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR THE SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA THRU SAT NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AS THE MAIN AXIS MOVES EAST COOLER AIR WILL START TO DRAIN INTO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. 850MB TEMPS WILL START AS
NEGATIVE ONE 12Z SATURDAY... FALL TO NEGATIVE THREE 00Z SUNDAY...
THEN FALL TO NEGATIVE EIGHT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO STRONG
CAA... ALL RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW BY SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL THEN SUPPORT SNOW GROWTH.

SATURDAY EVENING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS LOOK PLAUSIBLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF THE FINGER LAKES. THE
LONGEVITY OF THE FINGER LAKE BANDS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE MEAN
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND AND THE MOISTURE PROFILE RIGHT ABOVE THE SFC.

SUNDAY MORNING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP STARTS TO DROP OFF. UPSLOPE
INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. BUT DUE VERY DRY
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT... THE
CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS ARE SLIM. EXPECT FLURRIES AT
BEST. WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH
WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTY NEAR 30 MPH. THUS
WITH TEMPS ONLY INCREASING INTO THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S... SUN
AFTERNOON WILL BE RATHER CHILLY. SUNDAY EVENING WILL BR DRY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION,

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
315 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AS 00Z MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS.

1 PM THU UPDATE... DEEP UPR-LVL TROUGH ALG THE EAST COAST AT THE
START OF THE PD...WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING AWAY TO THE NE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ITS WAKE...SFC RIDGING...AND ALSO S/WV RIDGING
ALOFT...WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY WX AND MODERATING TEMPS MON-TUE.

OUR NEXT SHOT AT PCPN WILL LIKELY COME TWDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WHEN AN UPR-LVL TROUGH WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE W...ALG WITH A SFC FRONTAL
COMPLEX. AS A RESULT...WE`VE INSERTED SCTD SHWRS STARTING LATER
TUE NGT...THEN PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST WED.

AS ALLUDED TO ABV...READINGS WILL BE ON THE UPSWING NEXT WEEK...WITH
DAILY HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
SCATTERED STRATO CU CONTINUES TO DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING IN WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW. THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION AS SFC LOW PRES OVER LAKE
HURON DROPS SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS EVENING CIGS WILL
LOWER TO AROUND 4K FT WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR THE KSYR/KELM
TERMINALS.

E/SE WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT-SAT NGT...OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN-TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 311032
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
632 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...PERHAPS BRINGING SOME RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES AWAY BY LATER
SUNDAY...DRIER WEATHER...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES...SHOULD
THEN BE THE RULE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM EDT UPDATE...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ON TEMPS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THIS
MORNING. DENSE FOG HAVE MANAGED TO DEVELOP OVER LOCATIONS THAT
HAVE SEEN PERIODS OF CLEAR SKIES LAST NIGHT. EXPECT FOG TO LIFT
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A STORM SYSTEM IS SLOWLY BUT SURELY
IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE WESTERN CWA AFTER 18Z. FORECAST OVERALL IS IN GOOD SHAPE. FORE
MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ PREVIOUS FORECAST BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
300 AM EDT UPDATE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AND QUIET AND
DRY WEATHER IS PRESENT. THE UPPR LVL TROUGH THAT WILL BRING
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION TODAY IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL WI. THIS
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH AND AMPLIFY OVER THE MIDWEST
THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF NY AND PA. HOWEVER THE MID LVL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
THE CWA. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING OVER THE
FAR SE PORTION OF THE CWA... BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO LAST LONG.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO RETURN OVER THE SE SHORTLY AFTER 18Z
TODAY.

EXPECT THE ONSET OF SHOWERS TO BE LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
WITH SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA AROUND 18Z. SHOWERS
WILL BE SCATTERED LIKE IN NATURE AND WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE UPPR
40S TO LOW 50S... THUS EXPECT ALL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING TO BE RAIN. WHEN TEMPS START TO COOL OFF AFTER 00Z TONIGHT
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. THE CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE PRIMARILY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE TONIGHT IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
440 AM EDT UPDATE...
BY SAT MORNING THE BASE OF THE UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE
OVER SC. THEN... BY 00Z SAT THE MAIN AXIS WILL BE OFF THE EASTERN
CONUS. THE MAIN FORCING WITH THE UPPR LOW WILL NOT IMPACT OUR
REGION... AND THE PATH OF THE UPPR LOW WILL KEEP THE COASTAL
SYSTEM WELL OUT OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER... THE UPPR BRANCH OF THE
POTENT UPPR LOW WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR THE SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA THRU SAT NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AS THE MAIN AXIS MOVES EAST COOLER AIR WILL START TO DRAIN INTO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. 850MB TEMPS WILL START AS
NEGATIVE ONE 12Z SATURDAY... FALL TO NEGATIVE THREE 00Z SUNDAY...
THEN FALL TO NEGATIVE EIGHT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO STRONG
CAA... ALL RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW BY SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL THEN SUPPORT SNOW GROWTH.

SATURDAY EVENING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS LOOK PLAUSIBLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF THE FINGER LAKES. THE
LONGEVITY OF THE FINGER LAKE BANDS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE MEAN
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND AND THE MOISTURE PROFILE RIGHT ABOVE THE SFC.

SUNDAY MORNING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP STARTS TO DROP OFF. UPSLOPE
INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. BUT DUE VERY DRY
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT... THE
CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS ARE SLIM. EXPECT FLURRIES AT
BEST. WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH
WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTY NEAR 30 MPH. THUS
WITH TEMPS ONLY INCREASING INTO THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S... SUN
AFTERNOON WILL BE RATHER CHILLY. SUNDAY EVENING WILL BR DRY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION,

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
315 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AS 00Z MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS.

1 PM THU UPDATE... DEEP UPR-LVL TROUGH ALG THE EAST COAST AT THE
START OF THE PD...WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING AWAY TO THE NE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ITS WAKE...SFC RIDGING...AND ALSO S/WV RIDGING
ALOFT...WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY WX AND MODERATING TEMPS MON-TUE.

OUR NEXT SHOT AT PCPN WILL LIKELY COME TWDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WHEN AN UPR-LVL TROUGH WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE W...ALG WITH A SFC FRONTAL
COMPLEX. AS A RESULT...WE`VE INSERTED SCTD SHWRS STARTING LATER
TUE NGT...THEN PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST WED.

AS ALLUDED TO ABV...READINGS WILL BE ON THE UPSWING NEXT WEEK...WITH
DAILY HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
STRATO CU IS DRIFTING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH CIGS AROUND 4K FT. CIGS COULD BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY EARLY THIS MORNING PRIMARILY AT KITH/KBGM BUT NOT
INCLUDED IN TAF DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. BY MID MORNING JUST MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH MID LEVEL CIGS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
BY THIS EVENING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH
CIGS WILL LOWER INTO THE LOW VFR RANGE WITH LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AT KSYR/KELM.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING E/SE AROUND 5 KNOTS LATER THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT-SAT NGT...OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN-TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KALY 310932
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
531 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A POTENT SYSTEM WORKING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...TURNING TO SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM
OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON OVER US BY
SUNDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 530 AM EDT...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WITH
LITTLE OR NO WIND.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT FALL ALL THAT MUCH
MORE...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 20S OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT.

FILTERED SUNSHINE WILL START THE DAY OUT TODAY...WITH A GENERAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...EXCEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

THE H20 WATER LOOP DEPICTED TWO DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
RESPECTIVELY. THE ONE TO OUR SOUTH WAS GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE THE STRONG ONE WAS IRONICALLY
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS ACROSS MICHIGAN. THE
SECOND STORM HAD MUCH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THE IMPULSE TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. THE OTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH. A WEAK AREA OF
ASCENT WILL DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT DUE TO A DRY ATMOSPHERE
VERY LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED MIXING...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A
SHADE COOLER THAN NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS 50-55 IN THE
VALLEYS...45-50 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THE DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH) LOOKS
TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS INCREASING
AS THE 00Z EUROPEAN/CANADIAN AND THE GFS (AND ITS ALL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS) INDICATE A SIMILAR SCENARIO KEEPING THE OCEAN STORM AND
MOST OF ITS PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST.

WHAT THIS WILL MEAN FOR US IN ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TONIGHT...BUT EVEN MOST OF THESE SHOULD HOLD OFF LATE ENOUGH TO NOT
IMPACT ALL THE TRICK OR TREATERS. IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR A SNOW FLAKES IN THE ADIRONDACK BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
EXTREMELY MINOR AT THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000
FEET AND THE PRECIPITATION LIGHT.

SATURDAY...AS PHASING COMMENCES WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST...IT WILL
REMAIN OVERCAST WITH PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AGAIN THESE
WILL BE LIGHT AND IN MOST CASES...RAIN...WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM WILL BE OFF CAPE COD. IT
LOOKS AS IF ITS HEAVY BANDS OF PRECIPITATION (BOTH THE WARM AND COLD
CONVEYOR BELTS AND ASSOCIATED BANDING) WILL STAY TO OUR EAST. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ON ITS OUTER EDGE WILL SKIM MAINLY OUR EASTERN
TERRAIN...BUT A FEW OF THESE COULD WORK INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST. BY THIS TIME...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DIP WELL BELOW
ZERO EVERYWHERE AND FREEZING LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE TO THE
GROUND. THEREFORE...MOST OF WHAT FALL SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
SNOW...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF IT. A COATING TO A COUPLE OF
INCHES IS POSSIBLE (BUT NOT CERTAIN) OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WHILE A DUSTING CANNOT BE RULED EVEN ON THE VALLEY FLOORS...IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...20S HIGHER TERRAIN. A GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 MPH WILL ADD TO
THE CHILL.

SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOOK TO BE GONE BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CLOUDS LOOK TO
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. NEVERTHELESS IT WILL BE A DOWNRIGHT
COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS NO BETTER THAN MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH GOOD
MIXING...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30-35 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THE WIND WILL SLOWLY ABATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OF REGION...BUT NOT COMPLETELY. ASSUMING THE SKY REMAINS
MOSTLY CLEAR (WHICH WE THINK IT WILL) TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE INTO
THE 20S ACROSS MOST AREAS...UPPER 20S VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 20S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THESE
TWO DAYS. A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON TUESDAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUESDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY START IN THE 20S...HIGHS MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE A LOT OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE
BY WEDNESDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...RANGING UP
TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHWEST.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AFTER IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE FORECAST THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT IN ALL AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODELS
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A MUCH STRONGER TROF AND
MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN. THE ECMWF TROF IS FAIRLY WEAK AND ONLY
SHOWS SCATTERED PCPN.

IT WILL REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z SATURDAY.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG CONDITIONS AT
KGFL/KPSF FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TO START THE TAF PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS ON FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY A BKN/OVC DECK OF 4000 TO 5000 FEET
ACROSS THE REGION MOST OF FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE...THEN EASTERLY AT 5 KTS OR LESS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK...
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. RH
VALUES WILL GENERALLY AROUND OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL 75-90 PERCENT.

TODAY WILL START WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CLOUDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS. SOME OF THESE WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY REAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UP TO A
COUPLE OF INCHES COULD COLLECT IN A FEW SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
TURN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...SUNSHINE RETURNS BUT IT WILL BE WINDY AND COLD WITH
GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 30 MPH OR HIGHER. IT WILL BE COLD THAT
DAY AS WELL. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S VALLEYS...AND 40S
MOUNTAINS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY..BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KBTV 310856
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
456 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND THEN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...AND THEN WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EARLY SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND BE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 456 AM EDT FRIDAY...CLOUDY SKIES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY. THIS WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS BY THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN CLOUD
COVER...EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 456 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE BEST FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WHERE AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
AND WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY. A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN BE JUST EAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THEN ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOWEVER...AS LOW PRESSURE
AREA MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE COAST...EXPECTING A BETTER CHANCE FOR
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING
HEAVIER QPF WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. HAVE GONE ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND ALSO AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER. SUNDAY
WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT FRIDAY...AN ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WX PATTERN
ANTICIPATED ACRS THE NE CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. LARGE SCALE
PATTERN SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY LATE MONDAY...WITH BUILDING HGHTS FOR
MIDWEEK...BEFORE NEXT TROF DEVELOPS BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
OVERALL...GOOD AGREEMENT BTWN 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND LATEST ENSEMBLE
DATA ON SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
OF SFC FEATURES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE 20S
AND 30S...WITH COLDEST READING ACRS THE NEK OF VT. BY MONDAY...SFC
HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH A DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW AND LLVL WAA. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CLIMB BTWN -1C NEK
TO +1C SLV BY 00Z TUES...DEEP DRY LAYER ACRS OUR CWA. THESE TEMPS
WL RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO L50S ON MONDAY...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

TUES/WEDS...LLVL WAA CONTS INTO TUES WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARMING ANOTHER 3 TO 4 DEGREES WITH VALUES BTWN 3C AND 5C BY 00Z
WEDS...UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS. THESE WARM TEMPS WL
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE U40S MTNS TO MID 50S VALLEYS ON
TUES...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST.
ANOTHER VERY WARM NIGHT IS EXPECT ON TUES NIGHT...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE U30S MTNS TO
MID/UPPER 40S VALLEYS. BY WEDS WEAKENING SFC COLD FRNT AND
ASSOCIATED NARROW RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB RH MOVES ACRS OUR CWA. IN
ADDITION..WEAK ELONGATED 5H VORT IS ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY...SO
HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION LOW LIKELY POPS ACRS NORTHERN NY AND CHC
POPS ACRS THE CPV AND VT. GIVEN THE SYSTEM IS FALLING APART AND
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED...QPF WL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY <.10".
THERMAL PROFILES ARE WELL ABOVE 0C ON TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS...WITH
1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES ABOVE 550DM...SO EXPECT ALL
RAIN...EVEN ABOVE 4000 FT. WEAK LLVL CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND 1ST
BOUNDARY ON WEDS AFTN INTO THURS WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS FALLING
BLW 0C AGAIN...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS SHIFTED OFF THE COAST.

NEXT POTENT 5H VORT WL APPROACH OUR WESTERN CWA BY 12Z
THURS...ALONG WITH SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL AIR. THIS POCKET OF
ENERGY...COMBINED WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE PROFILES...WL
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP. ATTM...THERMAL PROFILES LOOK COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME MIX RAIN/SNOW ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN WITH MAINLY
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. THIS WL BE A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WITH
LIMITED SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE INTERACTION...SO QPF/SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT. ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AIR WL
FOLLOW ON THURS INTO FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BEFORE ANOTHER WARM UP
OCCURS OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS VERY CHANGEABLE PATTERN OVER THE
NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS WITH FEATURE RAPID WARM UPS AND COOL
DOWNS...WITH OVERALL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND NEAR NORMAL CHCS FOR
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...IR SATL SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACRS OUR TAF
SITES TONIGHT...WITH CIGS BTWN 3000 FEET AND 5000 FEET AGL. COULD
SEE BRIEF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AT BTV...OTHERWISE EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS THRU 00Z SATURDAY. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES OUR REGION
ON FRIDAY EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL LLVL MOISTURE AND CHCS FOR
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE MENTION VCSH AFT 03Z AT
SLK/MSS...AND REDUCED CIGS TO MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING...WL BECOME NORTH/NORTHEAST TODAY AT 3 TO 7 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE COMBINATION OF MID LVL MOISTURE AND ENERGY ALOFT WL INCREASE
THE THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP WITH IFR CIGS/VIS
POSSIBLE AT SLK...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS WL LINGER INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
BY MONDAY. ALSO...BREEZY TO GUSTY NORTH WINDS WL DEVELOP LATE SAT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH SFC GUSTS BTWN 20 AND 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 456 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE KCXX 88D DOPPLER RADAR IN
COLCHESTER VERMONT IS OUT OF SERVICE AT THIS TIME. ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIANS HAVE CHECKED THE RADAR AND FOUND A PROBLEM WITH HIGH
VOLTAGE ARCING. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS WILL BE AT THE RADAR SITE
LATER THIS MORNING TO TRY AND FIX THIS PROBLEM. NO ESTIMATE IS
AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS TO THE WHEN THE RADAR WILL BE RETURNED
TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 310844
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
444 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY...THEN TRACKS
NORTHEAST TO A POSITION SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
LATE SATURDAY...THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIME
PROVINCES BY SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS
STORM INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF FAST MOVING COLD FRONTS
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ALREADY HAVE A 1010 HPA LOW OFF THE NC COAST AT 7Z. A 700 HPA
SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY OVER N CENTRAL GA...ROUNDING THE BASE OF A
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THIS LOW AND HAVE IT TRACK
SLOWLY NE AND DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY CURRENTLY...WILL WORK
TO FORM AN INVERTED TROUGH TO THE N-NW OF THIS LOW BY THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN HAVING AN AREA OF ISOLD-
SCT SHRA TRACK WNW FROM OFF THE S FORK OF LONG ISLAND BACK TOWARDS
SW CT THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THIS - AS
COVERAGE LIKELY WILL BE QUITE THIN AND INTENSITY QUITE LIGHT.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD COVER TODAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS LOWERING AND THICKENING FROM SE
TO NW ACROSS THE CWA.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ALL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN TAKING A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW DOWN
INTO THE CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN LIFTING IT EAST THEN
NORTHEAST AS IT OPENS TO NEAR/OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE RESULT WILL BE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN BECOMING LIKELY BY LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS ROUGHLY THE S 1/2 OF THE CWA AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN N. THE SPOTTY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...BECOMING MORE
PERIODIC BY AFTERNOON OVER THE S 1/2 OF THE CWA. PRECIPITATION
THEN TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS WELL TO THE
NE SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT IN MOST AREAS...THE
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BEFORE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
COMES IN TO CAUSE ANY MIXING WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW. A POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION COULD BE ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000-1500 FT ACROSS MAINLY
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF S CT...WHERE THE COLD AIR MIGHT ARRIVE IN
TIME TO CAUSE A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW TO MIX IN...IF NOT BRIEFLY
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW...BEFORE ENDING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS EVEN
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION FROM THIS SYSTEM.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WINDS
SHOULD GUSTS TO UP TO 30-35 MPH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND 25-30 MPH OVER WESTERN PORTIONS. AS THE
STORM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT PULLS AWAY THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH OVER MAINLY S CT/LONG ISLAND
AND POSSIBLY NYC/FAR E PORTIONS OF NE NJ SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW
FORECASTING WINDS TO REMAIN JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A WIND ADVISORY WAS ULTIMATELY
NEEDED FOR AT LEAST E SUFFOLK COUNTY AND SE CT. THIS IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW - BUT BASED
ON LATEST GUIDANCE IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT:
FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES...EXPECT VALUES TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

A BLEND OF ECS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 950 HPA NEAR THE COAST AND 925 HPA INLAND...PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY. READINGS SHOULD
BE AROUND 5 TO MAYBE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH
MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM ON SUNDAY...AND
THE RESULTING TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUSTAIN WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE DAYTIME BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SUNDAY
NIGHT. FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS COULD SUPPORT ADVISORY CRITERIA
WIND GUSTS DURING THE DAY...PARTICULARLY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS. SOME
SPOTS COULD EVEN REACH CRITERIA BASED ON SUSTAINED WINDS. ASIDE FROM
THIS...PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS. WIND CHILLS AT DAYBREAK WILL BE AROUND 30 DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ON MONDAY AND MOVES
OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. DRY BOTH DAYS WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES...BUT IS MOISTURE
STARVED. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CITY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT THEN FOLLOWS...AND IS PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH
SOMETIME THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. POPS EVENTUALLY CLIMB INTO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL INTENSIFY
AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

WINDS...N LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH SUNRISE...BECOMING E NEAR 10 KT BY
15Z...THEN NE INCREASING TO NEAR 15 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT AFT 06Z
SAT ALONG THE COAST...INCLUDING THE NYC METRO TERMINALS.

CLOUDS...SCT-BKN 4THSD-5THSD FT THROUGH SUNRISE. VFR CIGS 4THSD-5THSD
FT DEVELOPING FM 14Z-18Z FROM SE TO NW. TIMING WITHIN +/- 2 HOURS.
MVFR CIGS FCST WITH ARRIVAL OF LIGHT RAIN AFT SUNSET THIS EVENING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. NE-N WINDS 20-25G30-35KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 20-25G30-35KT.
.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS SHOULD KEEP WINDS TO
AROUND 10 KT OR LESS TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING TO THE S AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SW...THIS SHOULD BRING GUSTS TO 25-30
KT TO ALL WATERS TONIGHT...SO HAVE CONTINUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THEN. THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA SATURDAY-
SUNDAY...AND A SERIES OF STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOWS RESULT IN A
CONTINUING TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS.
THIS LIKELY WILL RESULT IN GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER ALL WATERS
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 40-45
KT SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THESE GUSTS INTO SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD
AS A RESULT TO 5-9 FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND 3-5 FT ON
THE EASTERN SOUND BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

N-NW GALES CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THEN
WINDS START TO DIMINISH AT NIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING...ALL WATERS
SHOULD BE BELOW GALE FORCE GUSTS...HOWEVER SCA CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PREVAIL ACROSS THE OCEAN AND EASTERN WATERS THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT
FOR SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO REACH ALL OF THE WATERS WHEN A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD  A RETURN WSW FLOW FOR
TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH THIS MORNING...THEN LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS INTO
TONIGHT. A MORE STEADY/LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN IS FORECAST FROM
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT - WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER S/E
AREAS. FOR NOW FORECASTING TOTAL RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT-
SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM A TENTH AN INCH OVER ORANGE COUNTY TO
A HALF AND INCH TO MAYBE AN INCH OVER SE CT/E SUFFOLK COUNTY.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED DURATION OF PRECIPITATION OF 24+HOURS...NO
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED FROM THIS SYSTEM AT
THIS TIME.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...GC
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT







000
FXUS61 KBGM 310842
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
442 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...PERHAPS BRINGING SOME RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES AWAY BY LATER
SUNDAY...DRIER WEATHER...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES...SHOULD
THEN BE THE RULE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
300 AM EDT UPDATE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AND QUIET AND
DRY WEATHER IS PRESENT. THE UPPR LVL TROUGH THAT WILL BRING
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION TODAY IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL WI. THIS
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH AND AMPLIFY OVER THE MIDWEST
THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF NY AND PA. HOWEVER THE MID LVL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
THE CWA. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING OVER THE
FAR SE PORTION OF THE CWA... BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO LAST LONG.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO RETURN OVER THE SE SHORTLY AFTER 18Z
TODAY.

EXPECT THE ONSET OF SHOWERS TO BE LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
WITH SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA AROUND 18Z. SHOWERS
WILL BE SCATTERED LIKE IN NATURE AND WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE UPPR
40S TO LOW 50S... THUS EXPECT ALL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING TO BE RAIN. WHEN TEMPS START TO COOL OFF AFTER 00Z TONIGHT
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. THE CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE PRIMARILY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE TONIGHT IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
440 AM EDT UPDATE...
BY SAT MORNING THE BASE OF THE UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE
OVER SC. THEN... BY 00Z SAT THE MAIN AXIS WILL BE OFF THE EASTERN
CONUS. THE MAIN FORCING WITH THE UPPR LOW WILL NOT IMPACT OUR
REGION... AND THE PATH OF THE UPPR LOW WILL KEEP THE COASTAL
SYSTEM WELL OUT OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER... THE UPPR BRANCH OF THE
POTENT UPPR LOW WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR THE SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA THRU SAT NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AS THE MAIN AXIS MOVES EAST COOLER AIR WILL START TO DRAIN INTO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. 850MB TEMPS WILL START AS
NEGATIVE ONE 12Z SATURDAY... FALL TO NEGATIVE THREE 00Z SUNDAY...
THEN FALL TO NEGATIVE EIGHT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO STRONG
CAA... ALL RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW BY SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL THEN SUPPORT SNOW GROWTH.

SATURDAY EVENING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS LOOK PLAUSIBLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF THE FINGER LAKES. THE
LONGEVITY OF THE FINGER LAKE BANDS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE MEAN
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND AND THE MOISTURE PROFILE RIGHT ABOVE THE SFC.

SUNDAY MORNING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP STARTS TO DROP OFF. UPSLOPE
INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. BUT DUE VERY DRY
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT... THE
CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS ARE SLIM. EXPECT FLURRIES AT
BEST. WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH
WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTY NEAR 30 MPH. THUS
WITH TEMPS ONLY INCREASING INTO THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S... SUN
AFTERNOON WILL BE RATHER CHILLY. SUNDAY EVENING WILL BR DRY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION,

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
315 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AS 00Z MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS.

1 PM THU UPDATE... DEEP UPR-LVL TROUGH ALG THE EAST COAST AT THE
START OF THE PD...WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING AWAY TO THE NE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ITS WAKE...SFC RIDGING...AND ALSO S/WV RIDGING
ALOFT...WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY WX AND MODERATING TEMPS MON-TUE.

OUR NEXT SHOT AT PCPN WILL LIKELY COME TWDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WHEN AN UPR-LVL TROUGH WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE W...ALG WITH A SFC FRONTAL
COMPLEX. AS A RESULT...WE`VE INSERTED SCTD SHWRS STARTING LATER
TUE NGT...THEN PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST WED.

AS ALLUDED TO ABV...READINGS WILL BE ON THE UPSWING NEXT WEEK...WITH
DAILY HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
STRATO CU IS DRIFTING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH CIGS AROUND 4K FT. CIGS COULD BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY EARLY THIS MORNING PRIMARILY AT KITH/KBGM BUT NOT
INCLUDED IN TAF DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. BY MID MORNING JUST MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH MID LEVEL CIGS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
BY THIS EVENING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH
CIGS WILL LOWER INTO THE LOW VFR RANGE WITH LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AT KSYR/KELM.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING E/SE AROUND 5 KNOTS LATER THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT-SAT NGT...OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN-TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBUF 310833
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
433 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS THE VICINITY OF LAKE
ONTARIO TODAY...WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS
WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DRAWS CLOSER TOWARDS LAKE ERIE. BEHIND THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIQUID...ALTHOUGH A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING DISPLAYS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN LAKE HURON...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD TOWARDS
THE VICINITY OF LAKE ONTARIO. REGIONAL RADARS DISPLAY A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS BLOSSOMING THIS MORNING OVER LAKE ERIE...WITH ACTIVITY
LIKELY EXPANDING TOWARDS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO ALONG THE WARM FRONT
BOUNDARY. COOL AIR ALOFT OVER THE WARMER LAKES IS BRINGING ENOUGH
INSTABILITY THIS MORNING TO ENHANCE THESE SHOWERS OVER THE WATER
BODIES. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO PASS ACROSS THE WESTERN NIAGARA
FRONTIER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
MAINTAIN STRATUS WHILE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO INCREASE. THIS WILL
KEEP WESTERN NEW YORK RATHER CLOUDY...WHILE A FEW BREAKS ARE
POSSIBLE TO AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING DISPLAYS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BASE OF A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DROP
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN US BY SATURDAY MORNING. ON THE 1.5 PV
SURFACE...A SPLIT IN THIS SHORTWAVE IS SEEN...WITH THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN EASTERN US...WHILE A DOWNWARD INTRUSION
OF ENERGY LINGERS OVER THE CANADIAN NIAGARA PENINSULA TONIGHT.

THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE THE SURFACE LOW
SOUTHEASTWARD...WITH THE WEAK LOW DROPPING TOWARDS THE WESTERN HALF
OF LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING AS LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS
FORMS ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE OVERNIGHT...WITH A SECONDARY LOW
DEEPENING. TRACKING THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL CENTER THE BETTER
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WE WILL FIND LIKELY SHOWERS REACHING WNY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS REMAINING
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. TOWARDS THE EAST...WHICH WILL
LARGELY REMAIN AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCES OF THE SURFACE LOW TODAY...
LOW CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLAY FOR SHOWERS...WITH ANY ACTIVITY
LARGELY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE LINGERING UPPER LEVEL PV INTRUSION/ENERGY ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR
ADDITIONAL LIFT OVERNIGHT. A STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST WIND AROUND
THIS SECONDARY...DEEPENING ATLANTIC COASTLINE LOW WILL FOCUS LOW
LEVEL MOIST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN END OF THE
LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE OVERNIGHT. THIS LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...COMBINED WITH LIFT ALOFT WILL BRING CATEGORICAL LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS TOWARDS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK ZONES LATER OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST THAT ALL FALLING PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WILL REMAIN AS LIQUID.

CLOUDS WILL REMAIN RATHER THICK THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...WHICH IN
ADDITION TO THE LOWERING SUN ANGLE WILL PROVIDE FOR A SMALL DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE. HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY BEST THEIR MORNING
TEMPERATURES BY 5-10 DEGREES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. A
FEW 50S ARE POSSIBLE SE OF LAKE ONTARIO. TONIGHT LOWS WILL DROP OFF
TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. WARMEST AREAS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY BE TO
THE SW OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE YET STILL WARM
LAKE ONTARIO WILL LIKELY KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEEKEND WILL START OFF CHILLY AND WET AS A COMPLEX LOW DEVELOPS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
ONLY HAVE A SMALL IMPACT ON OUR REGION WITH AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL DRIVE OUR
WEATHER ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW...BUT 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
COOL FROM WEST TO EAST. THE NAM/SREF TEND TO BE WARMER THAN GFS/RGEM
GUIDANCE...BUT USING A CONSENSUS 850MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO
-3C TO -5C SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO MIX
WITH SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN WESTERN
AREAS AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE BEST LIFT WILL BE BELOW
700MB...PRIMARILY FROM UPSLOPING AND MODEST LAKE ENHANCEMENT. WITH
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ANY ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
SATURDAY WOULD BE LIGHT AND CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR FORECAST TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM
CENTRAL CANADA. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL...WITH
LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE KEEPING THE SURFACE TO
700MB COLUMN MOIST. HOWEVER...THE DRY AIR ALOFT WILL HINDER SNOW
WITH MOST OF THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE DRY. IT MAY BE JUST COOL
ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS...OR PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AS DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ACROSS
THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS WHERE THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHTLY LONGER FETCH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND MORE MOISTURE FROM THE
COASTAL LOW. AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO BUILD IN...LINGERING
PRECIPITATION SHOULD FIZZLE OUT ON SUNDAY...EVOLVING INTO
LAKE-INDUCED STRATUS. IT STILL APPEARS ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE VERY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING IN MOST AREAS
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY
RESULT IN A FEW ICY SPOTS SATURDAY NIGHT IF THERE ARE ANY WET SPOTS
FROM PRECIPITATION EARLIER IN THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...BRINGING FAIR
WEATHER AND GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES. CLOUDS SHOULD LAST MUCH OF THE
DAY ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS WITH COOL AIR ALOFT RESULTING IN LAKE
ENHANCED STRATUS. SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR THE LAKES AND IN WESTERN SECTIONS. HIGHS WILL CHILLY...ONLY BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...WITH FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. FLOW BACKING TO
THE SOUTHWEST WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...PUSHING TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE THE 50 DEGREE MARK MONDAY
AND BY TUESDAY MANY AREAS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS
A 60 DEGREE READING OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE TYPICALLY
WARMER SPOTS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE FINGER LAKES.
ALTHOUGH THE WARM ADVECTION WILL PUT AN END TO ANY LAKE EFFECT CLOUD
COVER...THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO GO
AROUND MONDAY AND TUESDAY COURTESY OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.

AFTER A DRY START TO THE WEEK...WE WILL SEE SHOWERS CREEP BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
LOW LIFT FROM WESTERN ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. AS THE LOW
TRACKS INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC...IT WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN WESTERN AREAS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE FRONTOGENETIC AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND RETURN
FLOW SUPPLYING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER LAKES
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

00Z/12Z MODEL ECMWF/GFS/GGEM GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT FOR THE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TIMEFRAME...WITH SOME GUIDANCE DEVELOPING A
FRONTAL WAVE WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE FORECASTING A MORE PROGRESSIVE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES...WILL JUST COVER THE
PERIOD WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING AND USE A MULTI-MODEL
BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES WHICH IS ALSO PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 06Z MAINLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH A WEALTH OF STRATUS MAY OCCASIONALLY DROP DOWN INTO
HIGH END MVFR THIS MORNING. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE NEAR LAKE
ERIE AND ALSO LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE VICINITY OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY YIELD A FEW SHOWERS IN
ADDITION TO THE LOWERING OF CIGS. WILL PLACE A VCSH IN THE KBUF/KIAG
TAFS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THESE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

LATER IN THE DAY THESE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AS THE WARM FRONT`S PARENT LOW DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
LAKE ERIE. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE PLACED IN THESE TAFS...WHILE
HOLDING JUST A VCSH FOR THE KART TERMINAL AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
LOCATIONS WHERE RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SETTLE
TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS LOW PRESSURE OVER
LAKE ERIE WILL REFORM AND INTENSIFY EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE
TONIGHT. AS THE LOW SURFACE PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION...COMBINED
WITH THE NEARING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT...AGAIN MOST LIKELY FARTHER WESTWARD.

BEHIND THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST. COOLER AIR FLOWING BEHIND THIS LOW PRESSURE
COMBINED WITH THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY FORM MVFR AND LATER
IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. CLIMATOLOGY PLACES IFR AT BETTER
THAN 50 PERCENT FOR KJHW...WHILE THE NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO
MAY ALSO BRING IFR CIGS FOR KROC...IN ADDITION TO KIAG AND KBUF.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR WITH SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND
FLURRIES.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN
END OF LAKE ERIE TODAY WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS TO THE LAKES.

A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE
THIS WEEKEND...AND NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND THIS LOW WILL INCREASE
FIRST ON LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SATURDAY MORNING ON LAKE
ERIE.

IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS...WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 4 TO 7 FEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. WHILE WAVES WILL BE GREATEST ON THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND ALSO THE WESTERN END OF LAKE
ERIE...HAVE ISSUED SCA FOR THE ENTIRE LAKE ONTARIO REGION...AND
THE EASTERN HALF OF LAKE ERIE AS WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD TOP SCA
THRESHOLDS AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND. THESE NORTHEASTERLY TO LATER THIS
WEEKEND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BRING SCA CONDITIONS
TO THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY
         FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 1 AM
         EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST
         MONDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT TO 1 AM EST
         MONDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/WOOD
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 310825
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
425 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A POTENT SYSTEM WORKING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...TURNING TO SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM
OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON OVER US BY
SUNDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT...THE SKY WAS GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS OUR
REGION. A PATCH OF STRATOCUMULUS CONTINUED TO PERSIST IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOWER 40S THERE.
CLOUDS WERE MORE EXTENSIVE IN VERMONT AS WELL HOLDING TEMPERATURES
UP CLOSER TO 40 AS WELL. MEANWHILE IT WAS GENERALLY IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITH MANY OUTLYING AT OR BELOW
FREEZING.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT FALL ALL THAT MUCH
MORE...WITH LOWS 35-40 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...LOWER 30S OR UPPER
20S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT.

FILTERED SUNSHINE WILL START THE DAY OUT TODAY...WITH A GENERAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...EXCEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

THE H20 WATER LOOP DEPICTED TWO DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
RESPECTIVELY. THE ONE TO OUR SOUTH WAS GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE THE STRONG ONE WAS IRONICALLY
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS ACROSS MICHIGAN. THE
SECOND STORM HAD MUCH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THE IMPULSE TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. THE OTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH. A WEAK AREA OF
ASCENT WILL DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT DUE TO A DRY ATMOSPHERE
VERY LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED MIXING...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A
SHADE COOLER THAN NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS 50-55 IN THE
VALLEYS...45-50 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH UNDER 10 MPH.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THE DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH) LOOKS
TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS INCREASING
AS THE 00Z EUROPEAN/CANADIAN AND THE GFS (AND ITS ALL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS) INDICATE A SIMILAR SCENARIO KEEPING THE OCEAN STORM AND
MOST OF ITS PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST.

WHAT THIS WILL MEAN FOR US IN ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TONIGHT...BUT EVEN MOST OF THESE SHOULD HOLD OFF LATE ENOUGH TO NOT
IMPACT ALL THE TRICK OR TREATERS. IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR A SNOW FLAKES IN THE ADIRONDACK BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
EXTREMELY MINOR AT THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000
FEET AND THE PRECIPITATION LIGHT.

SATURDAY...AS PHASING COMMENCES WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST...IT WILL
REMAIN OVERCAST WITH PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AGAIN THESE
WILL BE LIGHT AND IN MOST CASES...RAIN...WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM WILL BE OFF CAPE COD. IT
LOOKS AS IF ITS HEAVY BANDS OF PRECIPITATION (BOTH THE WARM AND COLD
CONVEYOR BELTS AND ASSOCIATED BANDING) WILL STAY TO OUR EAST. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ON ITS OUTER EDGE WILL SKIM MAINLY OUR EASTERN
TERRAIN...BUT A FEW OF THESE COULD WORK INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST. BY THIS TIME...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DIP WELL BELOW
ZERO EVERYWHERE AND FREEZING LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE TO THE
GROUND. THEREFORE...MOST OF WHAT FALL SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
SNOW...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF IT. A COATING TO A COUPLE OF
INCHES IS POSSIBLE (BUT NOT CERTAIN) OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WHILE A DUSTING CANNOT BE RULED EVEN ON THE VALLEY FLOORS...IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...20S HIGHER TERRAIN. A GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 MPH WILL ADD TO
THE CHILL.

SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOOK TO BE GONE BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CLOUDS LOOK TO
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. NEVERTHELESS IT WILL BE A DOWNRIGHT
COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS NO BETTER THAN MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH GOOD
MIXING...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30-35 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THE WIND WILL SLOWLY ABATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OF REGION...BUT NOT COMPLETELY. ASSUMING THE SKY REMAINS
MOSTLY CLEAR (WHICH WE THINK IT WILL) TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE INTO
THE 20S ACROSS MOST AREAS...UPPER 20S VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 20S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THESE
TWO DAYS. A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON TUESDAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUESDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY START IN THE 20S...HIGHS MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE A LOT OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE
BY WEDNESDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...RANGING UP
TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHWEST.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AFTER IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE FORECAST THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT IN ALL AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODELS
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A MUCH STRONGER TROF AND
MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN. THE ECMWF TROF IS FAIRLY WEAK AND ONLY
SHOWS SCATTERED PCPN.

IT WILL REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z SATURDAY.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG CONDITIONS AT
KGFL/KPSF FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TO START THE TAF PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS ON FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY A BKN/OVC DECK OF 4000 TO 5000 FEET
ACROSS THE REGION MOST OF FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE...THEN EASTERLY AT 5 KTS OR LESS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK...
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. RH
VALUES WILL GENERALLY AROUND OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL 75-90 PERCENT.

TODAY WILL START WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CLOUDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS. SOME OF THESE WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY REAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UP TO A
COUPLE OF INCHES COULD COLLECT IN A FEW SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
TURN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...SUNSHINE RETURNS BUT IT WILL BE WINDY AND COLD WITH
GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 30 MPH OR HIGHER. IT WILL BE COLD THAT
DAY AS WELL. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S VALLEYS...AND 40S
MOUNTAINS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY..BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV













000
FXUS61 KBTV 310815
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
415 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH
LIGHT WINDS...BUT A CONTINUATION OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.
MEANWHILE...A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRANSLATE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND RESULT
IN A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 147 AM EDT FRIDAY...SATELLITE LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE...SO NO CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT THURSDAY...DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. NOT MUCH INFLUENCE FROM THIS SYSTEM
ON FRIDAY...WITH JUST A WEAK SURFACE LOW REFLECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS OHIO WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH NNEWD ACROSS SERN
ONTARIO TO NEAR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. MAIN INFLUENCE WILL BE
INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION...ALONG WITH
STRATUS LAYER WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE AS WELL. ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO A FEW RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY ALONG/NEAR THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. THUS...SHOWING JUST
20-30 POPS ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. P-GRADIENT QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...SO
WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE LIGHT N-NE MOST LOCATIONS...AND LOCALLY
5-10 MPH ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR
40S...EXCEPT LOW 50S FOR THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE WITH UPPER LOW DIGGING TO OUR S-SW DURING
FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOKING FOR A CONTINUATION OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS
IN THE MID-UPR 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

QUESTION FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MID-
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PHASING WITHIN THE BROADER UPPER TROUGH
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. MODELS VARY ON
EXTENT OF PHASING AND ULTIMATE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN LOW
DEVELOPMENT...WITH CLOSED SFC-700MB LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
BY EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z NAM IS GENERALLY DRY ACROSS OUR
REGION WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM DEVELOPING FURTHER OUT TO SEA.
SIMILARLY...THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N 70W BENCHMARKS WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS PREVIOUS IDEA WITH A NUDGE TOWARD THE
12Z GFS. THIS MEANS SOME LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COOL ACROSS THE REGION. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
EASTERN/NERN VERMONT WITH FRINGE INFLUENCE OF LOW IN THE GULF OF
MAINE. LOOKING AT JUST A DUSTING TO AN 1" OR SO ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOCALLY 1-3" ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL/NRN GREENS INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HIGHS SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE
40S WITH LOWER 30S EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT FRIDAY...AN ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WX PATTERN
ANTICIPATED ACRS THE NE CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. LARGE SCALE
PATTERN SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY LATE MONDAY...WITH BUILDING HGHTS FOR
MIDWEEK...BEFORE NEXT TROF DEVELOPS BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
OVERALL...GOOD AGREEMENT BTWN 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND LATEST ENSEMBLE
DATA ON SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
OF SFC FEATURES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE 20S
AND 30S...WITH COLDEST READING ACRS THE NEK OF VT. BY MONDAY...SFC
HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH A DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW AND LLVL WAA. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CLIMB BTWN -1C NEK
TO +1C SLV BY 00Z TUES...DEEP DRY LAYER ACRS OUR CWA. THESE TEMPS
WL RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO L50S ON MONDAY...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

TUES/WEDS...LLVL WAA CONTS INTO TUES WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARMING ANOTHER 3 TO 4 DEGREES WITH VALUES BTWN 3C AND 5C BY 00Z
WEDS...UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS. THESE WARM TEMPS WL
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE U40S MTNS TO MID 50S VALLEYS ON
TUES...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST.
ANOTHER VERY WARM NIGHT IS EXPECT ON TUES NIGHT...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE U30S MTNS TO
MID/UPPER 40S VALLEYS. BY WEDS WEAKENING SFC COLD FRNT AND
ASSOCIATED NARROW RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB RH MOVES ACRS OUR CWA. IN
ADDITION..WEAK ELONGATED 5H VORT IS ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY...SO
HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION LOW LIKELY POPS ACRS NORTHERN NY AND CHC
POPS ACRS THE CPV AND VT. GIVEN THE SYSTEM IS FALLING APART AND
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED...QPF WL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY <.10".
THERMAL PROFILES ARE WELL ABOVE 0C ON TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS...WITH
1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES ABOVE 550DM...SO EXPECT ALL
RAIN...EVEN ABOVE 4000 FT. WEAK LLVL CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND 1ST
BOUNDARY ON WEDS AFTN INTO THURS WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS FALLING
BLW 0C AGAIN...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS SHIFTED OFF THE COAST.

NEXT POTENT 5H VORT WL APPROACH OUR WESTERN CWA BY 12Z
THURS...ALONG WITH SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL AIR. THIS POCKET OF
ENERGY...COMBINED WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE PROFILES...WL
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP. ATTM...THERMAL PROFILES LOOK COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME MIX RAIN/SNOW ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN WITH MAINLY
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. THIS WL BE A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WITH
LIMITED SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE INTERACTION...SO QPF/SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT. ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AIR WL
FOLLOW ON THURS INTO FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BEFORE ANOTHER WARM UP
OCCURS OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS VERY CHANGEABLE PATTERN OVER THE
NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS WITH FEATURE RAPID WARM UPS AND COOL
DOWNS...WITH OVERALL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND NEAR NORMAL CHCS FOR
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...IR SATL SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACRS OUR TAF
SITES TONIGHT...WITH CIGS BTWN 3000 FEET AND 5000 FEET AGL. COULD
SEE BRIEF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AT BTV...OTHERWISE EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS THRU 00Z SATURDAY. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES OUR REGION
ON FRIDAY EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL LLVL MOISTURE AND CHCS FOR
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE MENTION VCSH AFT 03Z AT
SLK/MSS...AND REDUCED CIGS TO MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING...WL BECOME NORTH/NORTHEAST TODAY AT 3 TO 7 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE COMBINATION OF MID LVL MOISTURE AND ENERGY ALOFT WL INCREASE
THE THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP WITH IFR CIGS/VIS
POSSIBLE AT SLK...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS WL LINGER INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
BY MONDAY. ALSO...BREEZY TO GUSTY NORTH WINDS WL DEVELOP LATE SAT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH SFC GUSTS BTWN 20 AND 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KOKX 310757
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
357 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY...THEN TRACKS
NORTHEAST TO A POSITION SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
LATE SATURDAY...THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIME
PROVINCES BY SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS
STORM INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF FAST MOVING COLD FRONTS
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ALREADY HAVE A 1010 HPA LOW OFF THE NC COAST AT 7Z. A 700 HPA
SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY OVER N CENTRAL GA...ROUNDING THE BASE OF A
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THIS LOW AND HAVE IT TRACK
SLOWLY NE AND DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY CURRENTLY...WILL WORK
TO FORM AN INVERTED TROUGH TO THE N-NW OF THIS LOW BY THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN HAVING AN AREA OF ISOLD-
SCT SHRA TRACK WNW FROM OFF THE S FORK OF LONG ISLAND BACK TOWARDS
SW CT THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THIS - AS
COVERAGE LIKELY WILL BE QUITE THIN AN INTENSITY QUITE LIGHT.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD COVER TODAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS LOWERING AND THICKENING FROM SE
TO NW ACROSS THE CWA.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ALL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN TAKING A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW DOWN
INTO THE CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN LIFTING IT EAST THEN
NORTHEAST AS IT OPENS TO NEAR/OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE RESULT WILL BE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN BECOMING LIKELY BY LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS ROUGHLY THE S 1/2 OF THE CWA AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN N. THE SPOTTY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...BECOMING MORE
PERIODIC BY AFTERNOON OVER THE S 1/2 OF THE CWA. PRECIPITATION
THEN TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS WELL TO THE
NE SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT IN MOST AREAS...THE
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BEFORE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
COMES IN TO CAUSE ANY MIXING WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW. A POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION COULD BE ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000-1500 FT ACROSS MAINLY
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF S CT...WHERE THE COLD AIR MIGHT ARRIVE IN
TIME TO CAUSE A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW TO MIX IN...IF NOT BRIEFLY
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW...BEFORE ENDING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS EVEN
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION FROM THIS SYSTEM.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WINDS
SHOULD GUSTS TO UP TO 30-35 MPH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND 25-30 MPH OVER WESTERN PORTIONS. AS THE
STORM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT PULLS AWAY THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH OVER MAINLY S CT/LONG ISLAND
AND POSSIBLY NYC/FAR E PORTIONS OF NE NJ SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW
FORECASTING WINDS TO REMAIN JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A WIND ADVISORY WAS ULTIMATELY
NEEDED FOR AT LEAST E SUFFOLK COUNTY AND SE CT. THIS IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW - BUT BASED
ON LATEST GUIDANCE IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT:
FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES...EXPECT VALUES TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

A BLEND OF ECS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 950 HPA NEAR THE COAST AND 925 HPA INLAND...PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY. READINGS SHOULD
BE AROUND 5 TO MAYBE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH
MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM ON SUNDAY...AND
THE RESULTING TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUSTAIN WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE DAYTIME BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SUNDAY
NIGHT. FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS COULD SUPPORT ADVISORY CRITERIA
WIND GUSTS DURING THE DAY...PARTICULARLY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS. SOME
SPOTS COULD EVEN REACH CRITERIA BASED ON SUSTAINED WINDS. ASIDE FROM
THIS...PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS. WIND CHILLS AT DAYBREAK WILL BE AROUND 30 DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ON MONDAY AND MOVES
OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. DRY BOTH DAYS WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES...BUT IS MOISTURE
STARVED. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CITY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT THEN FOLLOWS...AND IS PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH
SOMETIME THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. POPS EVENTUALLY CLIMB INTO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL INTENSIFY
AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

WINDS...N LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH SUNRISE...BECOMING E NEAR 10 KT BY
15Z...THEN NE INCREASING TO NEAR 15 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT AFT 06Z
SAT ALONG THE COAST...INCLUDING THE NYC METRO TERMINALS.

CLOUDS...SCT-BKN 4THSD-5THSD FT THROUGH SUNRISE. VFR CIGS 4THSD-5THSD
FT DEVELOPING FM 14Z-18Z FROM SE TO NW. TIMING WITHIN +/- 2 HOURS.
MVFR CIGS FCST WITH ARRIVAL OF LIGHT RAIN AFT SUNSET THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. NE-N WINDS 20-25G30-35KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 20-25G30-35KT.
.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS SHOULD KEEP WINDS TO
AROUND 10 KT OR LESS TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING TO THE S AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SW...THIS SHOULD BRING GUSTS TO 25-30
KT TO ALL WATERS TONIGHT...SO HAVE CONTINUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THEN. THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA SATURDAY-
SUNDAY...AND A SERIES OF STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOWS RESULT IN A
CONTINUING TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS.
THIS LIKELY WILL RESULT IN GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER ALL WATERS
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 40-45
KT SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THESE GUSTS INTO SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD
AS A RESULT TO 5-9 FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND 3-5 FT ON
THE EASTERN SOUND BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

N-NW GALES CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THEN
WINDS START TO DIMINISH AT NIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING...ALL WATERS
SHOULD BE BELOW GALE FORCE GUSTS...HOWEVER SCA CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PREVAIL ACROSS THE OCEAN AND EASTERN WATERS THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT
FOR SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO REACH ALL OF THE WATERS WHEN A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD  A RETURN WSW FLOW FOR
TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH THIS MORNING...THEN LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS INTO
TONIGHT. A MORE STEADY/LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN IS FORECAST FROM
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT - WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER S/E
AREAS. FOR NOW FORECASTING TOTAL RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT-
SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM A TENTH AN INCH OVER ORANGE COUNTY TO
A HALF AND INCH TO MAYBE AN INCH OVER SE CT/E SUFFOLK COUNTY.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED DURATION OF PRECIPITATION OF 24+HOURS...NO
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED FROM THIS SYSTEM AT
THIS TIME.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JC
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...GC
MARINE...MALOIT/JC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/JC





000
FXUS61 KALY 310743
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
345 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A POTENT SYSTEM WORKING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...TURNING TO SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM
OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON OVER US BY
SUNDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT...THE SKY WAS GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS OUR
REGION. A PATCH OF STRATOCUMULUS CONTINUED TO PERSIST IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOWER 40S THERE.
CLOUDS WERE MORE EXTENSIVE IN VERMONT AS WELL HOLDING TEMPERATURES
UP CLOSER TO 40 AS WELL. MEANWHILE IT WAS GENERALLY IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITH MANY OUTLYING AT OR BELOW
FREEZING.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT FALL ALL THAT MUCH
MORE...WITH LOWS 35-40 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...LOWER 30S OR UPPER
20S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT.

FILTERED SUNSHINE WILL START THE DAY OUT TODAY...WITH A GENERAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...EXCEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

THE H20 WATER LOOP DEPICTED TWO DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
RESPECTIVELY. THE ONE TO OUR SOUTH WAS GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE THE STRONG ONE WAS IRONICALLY
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS ACROSS MICHIGAN. THE
SECOND STORM HAD MUCH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THE IMPULSE TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. THE OTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH. A WEAK AREA OF
ASCENT WILL DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT DUE TO A DRY ATMOSPHERE
VERY LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED MIXING...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A
SHADE COOLER THAN NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS 50-55 IN THE
VALLEYS...45-50 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH UNDER 10 MPH.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THE DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH) LOOKS
TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS INCREASING
AS THE 00Z EUROPEAN/CANADIAN AND THE GFS (AND ITS ALL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS) INDICATE A SIMILAR SCENARIO KEEPING THE OCEAN STORM AND
MOST OF ITS PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST.

WHAT THIS WILL MEAN FOR US IN ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TONIGHT...BUT EVEN MOST OF THESE SHOULD HOLD OFF LATE ENOUGH TO NOT
IMPACT ALL THE TRICK OR TREATERS. IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR A SNOW FLAKES IN THE ADIRONDACK BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
EXTREMELY MINOR AT THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000
FEET AND THE PRECIPITATION LIGHT.

SATURDAY...AS PHASING COMMENCES WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST...IT WILL
REMAIN OVERCAST WITH PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AGAIN THESE
WILL BE LIGHT AND IN MOST CASES...RAIN...WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM WILL BE OFF CAPE COD. IT
LOOKS AS IF ITS HEAVY BANDS OF PRECIPITATION (BOTH THE WARM AND COLD
CONVEYOR BELTS AND ASSOCIATED BANDING) WILL STAY TO OUR EAST. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ON ITS OUTER EDGE WILL SKIM MAINLY OUR EASTERN
TERRAIN...BUT A FEW OF THESE COULD WORK INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST. BY THIS TIME...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DIP WELL BELOW
ZERO EVERYWHERE AND FREEZING LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE TO THE
GROUND. THEREFORE...MOST OF WHAT FALL SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
SNOW...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF IT. A COATING TO A COUPLE OF
INCHES IS POSSIBLE (BUT NOT CERTAIN) OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WHILE A DUSTING CANNOT BE RULED EVEN ON THE VALLEY FLOORS...IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...20S HIGHER TERRAIN. A GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 MPH WILL ADD TO
THE CHILL.

SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOOK TO BE GONE BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CLOUDS LOOK TO
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. NEVERTHELESS IT WILL BE A DOWNRIGHT
COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS NO BETTER THAN MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH GOOD
MIXING...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30-35 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THE WIND WILL SLOWLY ABATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OF REGION...BUT NOT COMPLETELY. ASSUMING THE SKY REMAINS
MOSTLY CLEAR (WHICH WE THINK IT WILL) TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE INTO
THE 20S ACROSS MOST AREAS...UPPER 20S VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 20S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COMING SOON.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z SATURDAY.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG CONDITIONS AT
KGFL/KPSF FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TO START THE TAF PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS ON FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY A BKN/OVC DECK OF 4000 TO 5000 FEET
ACROSS THE REGION MOST OF FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE...THEN EASTERLY AT 5 KTS OR LESS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK...
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. RH
VALUES WILL GENERALLY AROUND OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL 75-90 PERCENT.

TODAY WILL START WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CLOUDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS. SOME OF THESE WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY REAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UP TO A
COUPLE OF INCHES COULD COLLECT IN A FEW SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
TURN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...SUNSHINE RETURNS BUT IT WILL BE WINDY AND COLD WITH
GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 30 MPH OR HIGHER. IT WILL BE COLD THAT
DAY AS WELL. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S VALLEYS...AND 40S
MOUNTAINS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY..BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KBGM 310718
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
318 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...PERHAPS BRINGING SOME RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES AWAY BY LATER
SUNDAY...DRIER WEATHER...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES...SHOULD
THEN BE THE RULE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
300 AM EDT UPDATE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AND QUIET AND
DRY WEATHER IS PRESENT. THE UPPR LVL TROUGH THAT WILL BRING
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION TODAY IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL WI. THIS
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH AND AMPLIFY OVER THE MIDWEST
THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF NY AND PA. HOWEVER THE MID LVL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
THE CWA. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING OVER THE
FAR SE PORTION OF THE CWA... BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO LAST LONG.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO RETURN OVER THE SE SHORTLY AFTER 18Z
TODAY.

EXPECT THE ONSET OF SHOWERS TO BE LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
WITH SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA AROUND 18Z. SHOWERS
WILL BE SCATTERED LIKE IN NATURE AND WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE UPPR
40S TO LOW 50S... THUS EXPECT ALL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING TO BE RAIN. WHEN TEMPS START TO COOL OFF AFTER 00Z TONIGHT
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. THE CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE PRIMARILY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE TONIGHT IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
235 PM THU UPDATE... THE WELL ADVERTISED DEEPENING TROUGH PATN
OVER THE ERN STATES IS STILL EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE THIS PD.

ALTHOUGH SOME SMALL MODEL TO MODEL DIFFS REMAIN...LARGE-SCALE
AGREEMENT IS PRETTY GOOD THAT A SRN BRANCH OF THIS TROUGH WILL
SPLIT...AND THEN CLOSE OFF OVER VA/NC BY SAT...ULTIMATELY
AMPLIFYING OFFSHORE...AND SPINNING UP A ROBUST SFC CYCLONE WELL OFF
THE COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...THE NRN BRANCH OF THE TROUGH WILL LAG
A BIT BEHIND...AND CROSS NY/PA SAT NGT/EARLY SUN.

THE SRN BRANCH TROUGH AND DEEP OCEANIC STORM STILL APPEAR TO BE
TOO FAR REMOVED TO OUR E AND S TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON OUR FCST
AREA. HOWEVER...THE NRN BRANCH TROUGH SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SCTD
RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FRI NGT...SAT...AND SAT NGT...AS INSTAB/FORCED LIFT ACTS
UPON THE MOISTURE SUPPLY IN PLACE. THERMAL PROFILES LOOK TOO WARM
FOR ANYTHING BUT LIQUID PTYPE FRI NGT AND SAT...HOWEVER BY SAT
NGT/SUN MRNG...WE SHOULD TREND TWDS SNOW.

DEPENDING ON JUST HOW QUICKLY THE MID-LVLS DRY OUT SAT NGT/EARLY
SUN...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR FINGER LAKES SNOW
BAND DVLPMT...GIVEN A DEEP NRLY FLOW PATN...SUFFICIENT LAKE/AIR
TEMP DIFFS...AND POTENTIALLY ADEQUATE MOISTURE SUPPLY. ONCE
AGN...THE EXACT BLYR FLOW ORIENTATION AND LONGEVITY OF DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE KEY FACTORS IN THIS REGARD.

FOR NOW...WE`LL CONTINUE WITH CHC/SCTD POP`S FRI NGT-SAT NGT FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH THINGS DRYING OUT BY SUN AFTN. TEMPS WILL
BE CHILLY THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S SAT...AND IN
THE 30S-LWR 40S SUN. READINGS SAT NGT SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPR
20S-LWR 30S IN MOST LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
315 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AS 00Z MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS.

1 PM THU UPDATE... DEEP UPR-LVL TROUGH ALG THE EAST COAST AT THE
START OF THE PD...WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING AWAY TO THE NE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ITS WAKE...SFC RIDGING...AND ALSO S/WV RIDGING
ALOFT...WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY WX AND MODERATING TEMPS MON-TUE.

OUR NEXT SHOT AT PCPN WILL LIKELY COME TWDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WHEN AN UPR-LVL TROUGH WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE W...ALG WITH A SFC FRONTAL
COMPLEX. AS A RESULT...WE`VE INSERTED SCTD SHWRS STARTING LATER
TUE NGT...THEN PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST WED.

AS ALLUDED TO ABV...READINGS WILL BE ON THE UPSWING NEXT WEEK...WITH
DAILY HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
STRATO CU IS DRIFTING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH CIGS AROUND 4K FT. CIGS COULD BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY EARLY THIS MORNING PRIMARILY AT KITH/KBGM BUT NOT
INCLUDED IN TAF DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. BY MID MORNING JUST MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH MID LEVEL CIGS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
BY THIS EVENING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH
CIGS WILL LOWER INTO THE LOW VFR RANGE WITH LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AT KSYR/KELM.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING E/SE AROUND 5 KNOTS LATER THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT-SAT NGT...OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN-TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 310703
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
303 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...PERHAPS BRINGING SOME RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES AWAY BY LATER
SUNDAY...DRIER WEATHER...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES...SHOULD
THEN BE THE RULE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
300 AM EDT UPDATE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AND QUIET AND
DRY WEATHER IS PRESENT. THE UPPR LVL TROUGH THAT WILL BRING
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION TODAY IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL WI. THIS
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH AND AMPLIFY OVER THE MIDWEST
THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF NY AND PA. HOWEVER THE MID LVL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
THE CWA. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING OVER THE
FAR SE PORTION OF THE CWA... BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO LAST LONG.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO RETURN OVER THE SE SHORTLY AFTER 18Z
TODAY.

EXPECT THE ONSET OF SHOWERS TO BE LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
WITH SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA AROUND 18Z. SHOWERS
WILL BE SCATTERED LIKE IN NATURE AND WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE UPPR
40S TO LOW 50S... THUS EXPECT ALL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING TO BE RAIN. WHEN TEMPS START TO COOL OFF AFTER 00Z TONIGHT
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. THE CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE PRIMARILY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE TONIGHT IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
235 PM THU UPDATE... THE WELL ADVERTISED DEEPENING TROUGH PATN
OVER THE ERN STATES IS STILL EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE THIS PD.

ALTHOUGH SOME SMALL MODEL TO MODEL DIFFS REMAIN...LARGE-SCALE
AGREEMENT IS PRETTY GOOD THAT A SRN BRANCH OF THIS TROUGH WILL
SPLIT...AND THEN CLOSE OFF OVER VA/NC BY SAT...ULTIMATELY
AMPLIFYING OFFSHORE...AND SPINNING UP A ROBUST SFC CYCLONE WELL OFF
THE COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...THE NRN BRANCH OF THE TROUGH WILL LAG
A BIT BEHIND...AND CROSS NY/PA SAT NGT/EARLY SUN.

THE SRN BRANCH TROUGH AND DEEP OCEANIC STORM STILL APPEAR TO BE
TOO FAR REMOVED TO OUR E AND S TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON OUR FCST
AREA. HOWEVER...THE NRN BRANCH TROUGH SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SCTD
RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FRI NGT...SAT...AND SAT NGT...AS INSTAB/FORCED LIFT ACTS
UPON THE MOISTURE SUPPLY IN PLACE. THERMAL PROFILES LOOK TOO WARM
FOR ANYTHING BUT LIQUID PTYPE FRI NGT AND SAT...HOWEVER BY SAT
NGT/SUN MRNG...WE SHOULD TREND TWDS SNOW.

DEPENDING ON JUST HOW QUICKLY THE MID-LVLS DRY OUT SAT NGT/EARLY
SUN...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR FINGER LAKES SNOW
BAND DVLPMT...GIVEN A DEEP NRLY FLOW PATN...SUFFICIENT LAKE/AIR
TEMP DIFFS...AND POTENTIALLY ADEQUATE MOISTURE SUPPLY. ONCE
AGN...THE EXACT BLYR FLOW ORIENTATION AND LONGEVITY OF DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE KEY FACTORS IN THIS REGARD.

FOR NOW...WE`LL CONTINUE WITH CHC/SCTD POP`S FRI NGT-SAT NGT FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH THINGS DRYING OUT BY SUN AFTN. TEMPS WILL
BE CHILLY THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S SAT...AND IN
THE 30S-LWR 40S SUN. READINGS SAT NGT SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPR
20S-LWR 30S IN MOST LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1 PM THU UPDATE... DEEP UPR-LVL TROUGH ALG THE EAST COAST AT THE
START OF THE PD...WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING AWAY TO THE NE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ITS WAKE...SFC RIDGING...AND ALSO S/WV RIDGING
ALOFT...WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY WX AND MODERATING TEMPS MON-TUE.

OUR NEXT SHOT AT PCPN WILL LIKELY COME TWDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WHEN AN UPR-LVL TROUGH WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE W...ALG WITH A SFC FRONTAL
COMPLEX. AS A RESULT...WE`VE INSERTED SCTD SHWRS STARTING LATER
TUE NGT...THEN PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST WED.

AS ALLUDED TO ABV...READINGS WILL BE ON THE UPSWING NEXT WEEK...WITH
DAILY HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
STRATO CU IS DRIFTING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH CIGS AROUND 4K FT. CIGS COULD BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY EARLY THIS MORNING PRIMARILY AT KITH/KBGM BUT NOT
INCLUDED IN TAF DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. BY MID MORNING JUST MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH MID LEVEL CIGS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
BY THIS EVENING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH
CIGS WILL LOWER INTO THE LOW VFR RANGE WITH LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AT KSYR/KELM.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING E/SE AROUND 5 KNOTS LATER THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT-SAT NGT...OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN-TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBUF 310604
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
204 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS THE VICINITY OF LAKE
ONTARIO TODAY...WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS
WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DRAWS CLOSER TOWARDS LAKE ERIE. BEHIND THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIQUID...ALTHOUGH A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS EARLY MORNING IS ALLOWING FOR
PLENTY OF STRATUS ACROSS OUR REGION. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE VICINITY OF LAKE ONTARIO IS FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR NORTHERN LAKE HURON THIS EARLY MORNING. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM OVER NIGHT NEAR LAKE ERIE AND ALSO ONTARIO...WITH
LIFT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE MOISTENING LOWER LEVELS
YIELDING THESE RAIN SHOWERS. FARTHER INLAND WITH LESS LIFT...EXPECT
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SPLITTING SOLUTION...WITH THE MAIN
VORTICITY MAX DIGGING INTO THE CAROLINAS...LEAVING OUR AREA UNDER
WEAK / SPLIT FLOW ALOFT. WE WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
FORECAST AREA WITH DECENT MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THE WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AS THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD. OUR BEST CHANCE OF MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NY. WHILE QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT DUE TO THE LACK OF WELL-DEFINED FORCING...THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LESS RAINFALL
TO THE EAST...ESPECIALLY DROPPING OFF EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
THE ROCHESTER AREA.

TEMPERATURE VARIANCE WILL BE VERY LOW BETWEEN TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AS CLOUD COVER AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT CLOUD COVER AND
INCREASING PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH DURING THE DAY. THE DIURNAL RANGE
IN TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE AROUND 10 DEGREES...WITH LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND MID 30S IN THE
INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGION...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND MID 40S ON THE
HILLS FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL BE A WET START TO THE WEEKEND...AT LEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK AND PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AS THE AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO IN THE
WAKE OF A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CUTTING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. OROGRAPHIC LIFT
WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE APPROACH OF A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED LIFT. WHILE TEMPERATURES ALOFT...IN THE -2C TO -4C
RANGE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO ADD LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE MIX...IT WILL NOT LIKELY BE COLD ENOUGH TO FACILITATE A
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW. RATHER...WESTERN NEW YORK CAN EXPECT A
GENERAL LIGHT RAINFALL THROUGH THE NIGHT. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY UNDER
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW...AND AS SUCH ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED
IN SCOPE AND MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RELATIVELY
MILD MARITIME AIR FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THAT WILL KEEP LOWS FROM
DROPPING OUT OF THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH AREAS ALONG THE LAKE
PLAINS LIKELY STAYING IN THE LOWER 40S.

THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH THE FOCUS OF
PRECIPITATION SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EAST TO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PRESENT THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AS THE COMBINATION OF
NIGHTFALL AND THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE FORECAST AIR. HOWEVER THE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WILL BE THE DRY AIR ALOFT THAT WILL BE ACCOMPANYING THIS
COLD PUSH. AS THE AIR IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DRIES OUT...THERE
IS A POTENTIAL THAT WE COULD SEE ANY UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS PETER OUT INTO PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR POSSIBLY JUST
LAKE-INDUCED STRATUS WITH NO PRECIPITATION AT ALL.

ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD FIZZLE OUT SUNDAY MORNING
AS INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL OVERCOME ANY LAKE
ENHANCEMENT...THOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO
GO AROUND ON WHAT WILL OTHERWISE BE A DRY AND CHILLY DAY WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE LAKES AND
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY WILL LIKELY
STAY LOCKED IN THE UPPER 30S. WE CAN THEN EXPECT ONE MORE NIGHT OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE NEXT
WEEK

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A COOL AND SHOWER WEEKEND...WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
WILL TRANSITION TO A DRIER AND MORE MILD REGIME AS WE MOVE INTO THE
NEW WEEK. THIS WILL BE COURTESY OF STEEP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL
BE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. FLOW BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST
WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...PUSHING
TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE THE 50 DEGREE MARK MONDAY AND BY TUESDAY
MANY AREAS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS A 60 DEGREE
READING OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE TYPICALLY WARMER SPOTS
OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE FINGER LAKES. ALTHOUGH THE
WARM ADVECTION WILL PUT AN END TO ANY LAKE EFFECT CLOUD
COVER...THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO GO
AROUND MONDAY AND TUESDAY COURTESY OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.

AFTER A DRY START TO THE WEEK...WE WILL SEE SHOWERS CREEP BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
LOW LIFT FROM WESTERN ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. AS THE LOW
TRACKS INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC...IT WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
ARE INDICATING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE FAVORABLE FRONTOGENETIC AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING
AND RETURN FLOW SUPPLYING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
LOWER LAKES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS NOW SHOW SOME DIVERGENCE IN SOLUTIONS
REGARDING THE SPEED OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
THE GFS BRINGS A FRONTAL WAVE ACROSS NEW YORK THAT SLOWS UP THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF SPEEDS THE FRONT THROUGH WITH A
REINFORCING SHORTWAVE BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES...WILL JUST COVER THE PERIOD WITH LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING AND KEEP TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND
CLIMATOLOGY AS THE REGION WILL LIKELY BE AWASH IN A MILD PACIFIC
AIRMASS THAT WILL BE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 06Z MAINLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH A WEALTH OF STRATUS MAY OCCASIONALLY DROP DOWN INTO
HIGH END MVFR THIS MORNING. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE NEAR LAKE
ERIE AND ALSO LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE VICINITY OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY YIELD A FEW SHOWERS IN
ADDITION TO THE LOWERING OF CIGS. WILL PLACE A VCSH IN THE KBUF/KIAG
TAFS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THESE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

LATER IN THE DAY THESE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AS THE WARM FRONT`S PARENT LOW DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
LAKE ERIE. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE PLACED IN THESE TAFS...WHILE
HOLDING JUST A VCSH FOR THE KART TERMINAL AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
LOCATIONS WHERE RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SETTLE
TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS LOW PRESSURE OVER
LAKE ERIE WILL REFORM AND INTENSIFY EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE
TONIGHT. AS THE LOW SURFACE PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION...COMBINED
WITH THE NEARING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT...AGAIN MOST LIKELY FARTHER WESTWARD.

BEHIND THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST. COOLER AIR FLOWING BEHIND THIS LOW PRESSURE
COMBINED WITH THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY FORM MVFR AND LATER
IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. CLIMATOLOGY PLACES IFR AT BETTER
THAN 50 PERCENT FOR KJHW...WHILE THE NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO
MAY ALSO BRING IFR CIGS FOR KROC...IN ADDITION TO KIAG AND KBUF.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR WITH SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND
FLURRIES.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CHOPPY WAVE ACTION ON THE EAST
HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS BOTH LAKE ERIE
AND LAKE ONTARIO...BEFORE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH RELATIVELY FLAT WAVE ACTION.

STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH WINDS OVER 20KTS COMMON ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. WAVE
HEIGHTS SHOULD INCREASE TO 3 TO 6 FEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN
LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THUS HAVE ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY
         FOR LOZ030-042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KOKX 310600
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
200 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY AND TRACKS NORTHEAST. A SECONDARY
LOW FORMING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY WILL INTENSIFY
AND HEAD NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SUNDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS STORM FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF FAST MOVING COLD FRONTS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO CLEAN UP HOURLY
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BASED ON
LATEST GUIDANCE AND TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. THE FORECAST OVERALL
APPEARS ON TRACK.

WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...WIND IS NEARLY
CALM.

STILL ON TRACK MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT FEW-SCT LOWER CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE AND WEAK POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION TRACKS OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE
CAROLINAS. MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE CARVES OUT LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES.

WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW
LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME SUPPORT ALOFT...AND A
MOISTENING COLUMN DUE TO INCREASING EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW BELOW H8
HPA...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND NE FLOW. NEAR NORMAL READINGS ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GUIDANCE REMAINS MOSTLY CONSISTENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF A STORM
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. FIRST...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG AN OFFSHORE FRONT WILL BRING MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN TO
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN LONG ISLAND/SE CT WITH CAT
POP...WITH LIKELY POP AS FAR BACK AS NYC METRO. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY SAT
BETWEEN THE LATEST RUNS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE LATEST
GFS SOONER AND A LITTLE FARTHER EAST...AND THE ECMWF WETTER AND
LATER OUT EAST...HAVE SMOOTHED OUT THESE DIFFERENCES FOR NOW WITH
A GENERAL ALL DAY EVENT.

FOCUS OF RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST SAT NIGHT...WITH
DECREASING POP AS THIS FIRST LOW LIFTS TO THE NE. PRECIP COULD
BRIEFLY END AS SOME SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS WELL NORTH/WEST. AS A STRONGER LOW FORMS NEAR CAPE
HATTERAS AND THEN TRACKS OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY...ITS RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AS IT FAILS
TO PHASE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO ITS WEST. ITS MORE IMPORTANT
IMPACTS WILL BE AND COOLER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH A BRISK N
FLOW AS AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AROUND BETWEEN IT AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THERE
SHOULD ALSO BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY STRATO CUMULUS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BARELY REACH 50 IN NYC METRO
AND LONG ISLAND...AND REMAIN IN THE 40S INLAND.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...BUT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FROM COMPLETELY DECOUPLING IN MOST PLACES. ASA RESULT STUCK CLOSE
TO GUIDANCE LOWS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND DID NOT UNDERCUT...WITH LOWS
25-30 WELL INLAND...LOWER 30S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND MID 30S FOR
NYC.

AFTER ONE MORE COOL DAY ON MON WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S...TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
MID WEEK PERIOD AS A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST. SHOULD THEN SEE A SERIES OF
WEAK...FAST MOVING COLD FRONTS PASSING THROUGH IN FAST QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW...WITH CHANCE POP FOR RAIN SHOWERS NORTH/WEST OF NYC
ON WED...AND THROUGHOUT THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL INTENSIFY
AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

WINDS...N LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH SUNRISE...BECOMING E NEAR 10 KT BY
15Z...THEN NE INCREASING TO NEAR 15 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT AFT 06Z
SAT ALONG THE COAST...INCLUDING THE NYC METRO TERMINALS.

CLOUDS...SCT-BKN 4THSD-5THSD FT THROUGH SUNRISE. VFR CIGS 4THSD-5THSD
FT DEVELOPING FM 14Z-18Z FROM SE TO NW. TIMING WITHIN +/- 2 HOURS.
MVFR CIGS FCST WITH ARRIVAL OF LIGHT RAIN AFT SUNSET THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. NE-N WINDS 20-25G30-35KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 20-25G30-35KT.
.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE.

WIND REMAINS NORTHWEST AROUND 12 KT OR LESS WITH MINIMAL
GUSTS...AND SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SEAS RUNNING AROUND 2 FT
ON THE OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS.

WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
THEN WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO INCREASE...WITH THIS MOST NOTABLE AT FIRST OVER THE
EASTERN MOST COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. E-NE WINDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT TO SCA THRESHOLDS.

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SEAS BUILD LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
WINDS INCREASE. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SAT...BUT
IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER GALES WILL DEVELOP THAT EARLY DUE
TO TIMING UNCERTAINTY OF AN INITIAL LOW PASSING TO THE SE. GALES
APPEAR MORE LIKELY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND PASSES TO THE SE...WITH CAA OVER STILL
RELATIVELY MILD WATERS AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

AFTER SOME LINGERING GALES ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS SUNDAY
EVENING...SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD OTHERWISE FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MON FOR MOST WATERS. THEN QUIET CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
ALL WATERS BY MON NIGHT. INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A RETURN OF SCA CONDITIONS TO THE ERN OCEAN WATERS
LATE TUE NIGHT-WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A
HALF INCH...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY ACROSS ERN LONG
ISLAND AND SE CT. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/MET/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...GC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT/MET/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW







000
FXUS61 KALY 310549
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
150 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EDT...A CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION BUT
TEMPERATURES WERE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND IN SOME
CASES SOME LOCAL TERRAIN INDUCED BREEZES. WE DECIDED NOT TO TINKER
WITH ANY LOWS AS EVEN DOWN AT POUGHKEEPSIE...WHERE IT WAS STILL IN
THE MID 40S...MONTOGMERY AND PHILMONT WERE ONLY 35!

IT WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BOTTOMING
OUT IN THE 30S...LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION. THE
WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO MONITOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE A
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL
DIVE SOUTH AND CLOSE-OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
VIRGINIA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT THIS LOW WILL TRACK WELL TO
THE EAST OF OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE FAR
EAST WHERE SOME STEADIER PRECIPITATION MIGHT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
OR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE SHIELD OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL GET AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL MASS... WHILE THE
NAM IS A BIT FARTHER EAST.

OTHERWISE THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL BE
COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HAVE GONE WITH POP VALUES MAINLY NEAR 30 PERCENT FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THIS. EXPECT LOWEST POPS TO BE
IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE WEST OF THE CATSKILLS AS THE FLOW WILL BE NNW INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A DRY UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY BUT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE MODERATING WEATHER AS THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH RIDGING BUILDING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS... FOLLOWED
BY COOLER BUT NOT REALLY VERY COLD WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATER TIME PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z SATURDAY.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG CONDITIONS AT
KGFL/KPSF FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TO START THE TAF PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS ON FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY A BKN/OVC DECK OF 4000 TO 5000 FEET
ACROSS THE REGION MOST OF FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE...THEN EASTERLY AT 5 KTS OR LESS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK...
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...











000
FXUS61 KBTV 310547
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
147 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH
LIGHT WINDS...BUT A CONTINUATION OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.
MEANWHILE...A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRANSLATE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND RESULT
IN A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 147 AM EDT FRIDAY...SATELLITE LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE...SO NO CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT THURSDAY...DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. NOT MUCH INFLUENCE FROM THIS SYSTEM
ON FRIDAY...WITH JUST A WEAK SURFACE LOW REFLECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS OHIO WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH NNEWD ACROSS SERN
ONTARIO TO NEAR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. MAIN INFLUENCE WILL BE
INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION...ALONG WITH
STRATUS LAYER WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE AS WELL. ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO A FEW RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY ALONG/NEAR THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. THUS...SHOWING JUST
20-30 POPS ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. P-GRADIENT QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...SO
WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE LIGHT N-NE MOST LOCATIONS...AND LOCALLY
5-10 MPH ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR
40S...EXCEPT LOW 50S FOR THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE WITH UPPER LOW DIGGING TO OUR S-SW DURING
FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOKING FOR A CONTINUATION OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS
IN THE MID-UPR 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

QUESTION FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MID-
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PHASING WITHIN THE BROADER UPPER TROUGH
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. MODELS VARY ON
EXTENT OF PHASING AND ULTIMATE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN LOW
DEVELOPMENT...WITH CLOSED SFC-700MB LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
BY EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z NAM IS GENERALLY DRY ACROSS OUR
REGION WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM DEVELOPING FURTHER OUT TO SEA.
SIMILARLY...THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N 70W BENCHMARKS WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS PREVIOUS IDEA WITH A NUDGE TOWARD THE
12Z GFS. THIS MEANS SOME LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COOL ACROSS THE REGION. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
EASTERN/NERN VERMONT WITH FRINGE INFLUENCE OF LOW IN THE GULF OF
MAINE. LOOKING AT JUST A DUSTING TO AN 1" OR SO ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOCALLY 1-3" ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL/NRN GREENS INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HIGHS SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE
40S WITH LOWER 30S EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY...IN GENERAL, THE 12Z SUITE OF MODELS
DON`T OFFER ANY LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN
AND ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO ONE ANOTHER. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES, THOUGH SUBTLE, THAT COULD EFFECT THE ACTUAL WEATHER
WE OBSERVE (AND THUS THE FORECAST CHALLENGE). WE ARE STILL LOOKING
AT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED POWERFUL STORM TO MOVE BY
FAR ENOUGH OFF THE COAST TO AVOID ANY SIGNIFICANT DIRECT IMPACT ON
THE REGION, BUT WE`LL NOTICE A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER (COLD,
BREEZY, CHANCES FOR HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY). THE
PATTERN IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SO BY TUESDAY WE RETURN TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WITH THE WEATHER TURNING MILDER, THOUGH REMAINING UNSETTLED.
DON`T SEE A LOT OF SUNNY WEATHER IN OUR FUTURE. A FEW MORE DETAILS
FOLLOW...

SUNDAY: 12Z GFS HAS COME IN A SMIDGE WEST OF PREVIOUS RUNS AND
KEEP A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION, ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN HALF. THE 12Z EURO IS A LITTLE
WEAKER WITH THE STORM, AND DOES NOT HAVE AS MUCH MOISTURE IN PLACE
FOR US. TAKEN AT FACE VALUE, THE GFS DOES INDICATE ABOUT
0.05-0.10" MELTED EQUIVALENT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN VERMONT AND INTO THE `DACKS. THE EURO IS DRY. THINK THE
OVERALL FORECAST IDEA WE`VE HAD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THERE TO
BE SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN/EASTERN VERMONT LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER GIVEN THE 12Z GFS,
DID DECIDE TO INTRODUCE SOME SMALL POPS INTO THE `DACKS AS WELL.
NET RESULT, HAVE SOME 10-30% POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY,
HIGHEST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION, BUT PERHAPS ENOUGH TO WRING OUT 1" OR SO
AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500FT DURING THE DAY. A COUPLE OF THINGS WE
ARE CONFIDENT OF IS A STRONG/GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND (PERHAPS
30MPH+ AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS VERMONT) AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT LEAST -5C, UNDER STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION, TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. THINK EVEN FOR BTV, WE WILL FAIL TO HIT 40F.

SUNDAY NIGHT: IF WE HAVEN`T CLEARED OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WE
WILL BY EVENING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH, BUT WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE (DEW POINTS INTO THE TEENS), TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL
PRETTY QUICK. LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST SUB-30F TEMPERATURES FOR
BURLINGTON. LOWS INTO THE UPPER 10S IN THE COLDEST SPOTS, WITH
QUITE A FEW LOW 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

MONDAY: LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET. COULD BE A FAIRLY SUNNY DAY AS WEAK
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WENT WITH BLEND OF GUIDANCE BUT
ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S.

TUESDAY: WARM FRONT STARTS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS ARE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS. SAW NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THE CONSISTENT MODELS, SO
IDEA OF CHANCE LEVEL POPS, HIGHEST IN NORTHERN SECTIONS WHERE THE
MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST. TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND
WE`LL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (PUSHING 50F IN THE VALLEYS)

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ENSURE MILD
TEMPERATURES BOTH DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT, HOWEVER IT APPEARS A
FRONT WILL GET STRUNG OUT NEAR/ACROSS THE REGION AND BE A FOCUS
FOR ON-AND-OFF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BOTH DAYS. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE RIBBON OF
MOISTURE, BUT ENOUGH SIMILARITY TO KEEP WITH 50-60% CHANCES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
HIGHS, BUT WITH THE CLOUDS, IT WILL STAY WARMER THAN NORMAL AT
NIGHT (50S IN THE DAY, 40S AT NIGHT).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...IR SATL SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACRS OUR TAF
SITES TONIGHT...WITH CIGS BTWN 3000 FEET AND 5000 FEET AGL. COULD
SEE BRIEF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AT BTV...OTHERWISE EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS THRU 00Z SATURDAY. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES OUR REGION
ON FRIDAY EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL LLVL MOISTURE AND CHCS FOR
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE MENTION VCSH AFT 03Z AT
SLK/MSS...AND REDUCED CIGS TO MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING...WL BECOME NORTH/NORTHEAST TODAY AT 3 TO 7 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE COMBINATION OF MID LVL MOISTURE AND ENERGY ALOFT WL INCREASE
THE THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP WITH IFR CIGS/VIS
POSSIBLE AT SLK...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS WL LINGER INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
BY MONDAY. ALSO...BREEZY TO GUSTY NORTH WINDS WL DEVELOP LATE SAT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH SFC GUSTS BTWN 20 AND 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KBGM 310546
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
146 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...PERHAPS BRINGING SOME RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES AWAY BY LATER
SUNDAY...DRIER WEATHER...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES...SHOULD
THEN BE THE RULE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1045 PM UPDATE..
UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL
FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.


225 PM THU UPDATE... PLUME OF LAKE-EFFECT -SHRA CONTINUES LATE
THIS AFTN FROM ROUGHLY KSYR SEWD TOWARDS ONEONTA. WE STILL EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN...THEN ULTIMATELY DSIPT BY THIS EVE.

HOWEVER...THE THICK MASS OF SC CLDS OVER CNY/NE PA WILL VERY
LIKELY HANG IN LONGER...AS UPSLOPE NWLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO
TNT...AND MOISTURE STAYS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ALOFT. MOST MODEL RH PROFILES BEGIN TO DRY OUT THE BLYR AFTER
03-06Z...SPCLY OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH WE DO LOSE
THE LAKE CONNECTION/UPSLOPE COMPONENT OVERNIGHT...THE INVERSION
WILL REMAIN. OUR GUT FEELING IS THAT WE`LL GRADUALLY LOSE THE SC
CLDS ACRS NE PA AND PTNS OF NY`S SRN TIER...WITH THE NRN ZNS
KEEPING THE LWR CLDS A BIT LONGER.

TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY TNT...DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER. FOR
NOW...WE HAVE LOWS RANGING IN THE 30S (WITH LWR 30S IN THE
POCONOS/CATSKILLS WHERE CLEARING IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR...AND UPR
30S TO NEAR 40 IN THE LAKE PLAIN CNTYS...WHERE THICKER CLDS SHOULD
PREVAIL FOR A LONGER PD OF TIME).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
235 PM THU UPDATE... THE WELL ADVERTISED DEEPENING TROUGH PATN
OVER THE ERN STATES IS STILL EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE THIS PD.

ALTHOUGH SOME SMALL MODEL TO MODEL DIFFS REMAIN...LARGE-SCALE
AGREEMENT IS PRETTY GOOD THAT A SRN BRANCH OF THIS TROUGH WILL
SPLIT...AND THEN CLOSE OFF OVER VA/NC BY SAT...ULTIMATELY
AMPLIFYING OFFSHORE...AND SPINNING UP A ROBUST SFC CYCLONE WELL OFF
THE COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...THE NRN BRANCH OF THE TROUGH WILL LAG
A BIT BEHIND...AND CROSS NY/PA SAT NGT/EARLY SUN.

THE SRN BRANCH TROUGH AND DEEP OCEANIC STORM STILL APPEAR TO BE
TOO FAR REMOVED TO OUR E AND S TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON OUR FCST
AREA. HOWEVER...THE NRN BRANCH TROUGH SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SCTD
RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FRI NGT...SAT...AND SAT NGT...AS INSTAB/FORCED LIFT ACTS
UPON THE MOISTURE SUPPLY IN PLACE. THERMAL PROFILES LOOK TOO WARM
FOR ANYTHING BUT LIQUID PTYPE FRI NGT AND SAT...HOWEVER BY SAT
NGT/SUN MRNG...WE SHOULD TREND TWDS SNOW.

DEPENDING ON JUST HOW QUICKLY THE MID-LVLS DRY OUT SAT NGT/EARLY
SUN...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR FINGER LAKES SNOW
BAND DVLPMT...GIVEN A DEEP NRLY FLOW PATN...SUFFICIENT LAKE/AIR
TEMP DIFFS...AND POTENTIALLY ADEQUATE MOISTURE SUPPLY. ONCE
AGN...THE EXACT BLYR FLOW ORIENTATION AND LONGEVITY OF DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE KEY FACTORS IN THIS REGARD.

FOR NOW...WE`LL CONTINUE WITH CHC/SCTD POP`S FRI NGT-SAT NGT FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH THINGS DRYING OUT BY SUN AFTN. TEMPS WILL
BE CHILLY THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S SAT...AND IN
THE 30S-LWR 40S SUN. READINGS SAT NGT SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPR
20S-LWR 30S IN MOST LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1 PM THU UPDATE... DEEP UPR-LVL TROUGH ALG THE EAST COAST AT THE
START OF THE PD...WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING AWAY TO THE NE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ITS WAKE...SFC RIDGING...AND ALSO S/WV RIDGING
ALOFT...WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY WX AND MODERATING TEMPS MON-TUE.

OUR NEXT SHOT AT PCPN WILL LIKELY COME TWDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WHEN AN UPR-LVL TROUGH WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE W...ALG WITH A SFC FRONTAL
COMPLEX. AS A RESULT...WE`VE INSERTED SCTD SHWRS STARTING LATER
TUE NGT...THEN PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST WED.

AS ALLUDED TO ABV...READINGS WILL BE ON THE UPSWING NEXT WEEK...WITH
DAILY HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
STRATO CU IS DRIFTING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH CIGS AROUND 4K FT. CIGS COULD BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY EARLY THIS MORNING PRIMARILY AT KITH/KBGM BUT NOT
INCLUDED IN TAF DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. BY MID MORNING JUST MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH MID LEVEL CIGS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
BY THIS EVENING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH
CIGS WILL LOWER INTO THE LOW VFR RANGE WITH LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AT KSYR/KELM.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING E/SE AROUND 5 KNOTS LATER THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT-SAT NGT...OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN-TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 310541
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
141 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER
WITH LIGHT WINDS...BUT A CONTINUATION OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.
MEANWHILE...A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRANSLATE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND RESULT
IN A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1009 PM EDT THURSDAY...TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID-30S TO THE
MID- 40S LATE THIS EVENING AS EFFECTS OF OVERCAST SKIES MINIMIZING
RADIATIVE COOLING. THE OVERCAST WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST DESPITE
BUILDING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
FILTER IN ON WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES. ANY COOLING THAT
TAKES PLACE WILL REMAIN SLOW. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS
PRETTY WELL WITH ONLY MODEST ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS WITH THIS
UPDATE. LOWS IN THE 30S IN MANY LOCALES...HIGHEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND ADJACENT TO THE SHORE OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT THURSDAY...DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. NOT MUCH INFLUENCE FROM THIS SYSTEM
ON FRIDAY...WITH JUST A WEAK SURFACE LOW REFLECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS OHIO WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH NNEWD ACROSS SERN
ONTARIO TO NEAR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. MAIN INFLUENCE WILL BE
INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION...ALONG WITH
STRATUS LAYER WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE AS WELL. ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO A FEW RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY ALONG/NEAR THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. THUS...SHOWING JUST
20-30 POPS ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. P-GRADIENT QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...SO
WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE LIGHT N-NE MOST LOCATIONS...AND LOCALLY
5-10 MPH ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR
40S...EXCEPT LOW 50S FOR THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE WITH UPPER LOW DIGGING TO OUR S-SW DURING
FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOKING FOR A CONTINUATION OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS
IN THE MID-UPR 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

QUESTION FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MID-
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PHASING WITHIN THE BROADER UPPER TROUGH
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. MODELS VARY ON
EXTENT OF PHASING AND ULTIMATE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN LOW
DEVELOPMENT...WITH CLOSED SFC-700MB LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
BY EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z NAM IS GENERALLY DRY ACROSS OUR
REGION WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM DEVELOPING FURTHER OUT TO SEA.
SIMILARLY...THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N 70W BENCHMARKS WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS PREVIOUS IDEA WITH A NUDGE TOWARD THE
12Z GFS. THIS MEANS SOME LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COOL ACROSS THE REGION. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
EASTERN/NERN VERMONT WITH FRINGE INFLUENCE OF LOW IN THE GULF OF
MAINE. LOOKING AT JUST A DUSTING TO AN 1" OR SO ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOCALLY 1-3" ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL/NRN GREENS INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HIGHS SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE
40S WITH LOWER 30S EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY...IN GENERAL, THE 12Z SUITE OF MODELS
DON`T OFFER ANY LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN
AND ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO ONE ANOTHER. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES, THOUGH SUBTLE, THAT COULD EFFECT THE ACTUAL WEATHER
WE OBSERVE (AND THUS THE FORECAST CHALLENGE). WE ARE STILL LOOKING
AT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED POWERFUL STORM TO MOVE BY
FAR ENOUGH OFF THE COAST TO AVOID ANY SIGNIFICANT DIRECT IMPACT ON
THE REGION, BUT WE`LL NOTICE A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER (COLD,
BREEZY, CHANCES FOR HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY). THE
PATTERN IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SO BY TUESDAY WE RETURN TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WITH THE WEATHER TURNING MILDER, THOUGH REMAINING UNSETTLED.
DON`T SEE A LOT OF SUNNY WEATHER IN OUR FUTURE. A FEW MORE DETAILS
FOLLOW...

SUNDAY: 12Z GFS HAS COME IN A SMIDGE WEST OF PREVIOUS RUNS AND
KEEP A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION, ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN HALF. THE 12Z EURO IS A LITTLE
WEAKER WITH THE STORM, AND DOES NOT HAVE AS MUCH MOISTURE IN PLACE
FOR US. TAKEN AT FACE VALUE, THE GFS DOES INDICATE ABOUT
0.05-0.10" MELTED EQUIVALENT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN VERMONT AND INTO THE `DACKS. THE EURO IS DRY. THINK THE
OVERALL FORECAST IDEA WE`VE HAD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THERE TO
BE SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN/EASTERN VERMONT LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER GIVEN THE 12Z GFS,
DID DECIDE TO INTRODUCE SOME SMALL POPS INTO THE `DACKS AS WELL.
NET RESULT, HAVE SOME 10-30% POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY,
HIGHEST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION, BUT PERHAPS ENOUGH TO WRING OUT 1" OR SO
AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500FT DURING THE DAY. A COUPLE OF THINGS WE
ARE CONFIDENT OF IS A STRONG/GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND (PERHAPS
30MPH+ AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS VERMONT) AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT LEAST -5C, UNDER STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION, TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. THINK EVEN FOR BTV, WE WILL FAIL TO HIT 40F.

SUNDAY NIGHT: IF WE HAVEN`T CLEARED OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WE
WILL BY EVENING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH, BUT WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE (DEW POINTS INTO THE TEENS), TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL
PRETTY QUICK. LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST SUB-30F TEMPERATURES FOR
BURLINGTON. LOWS INTO THE UPPER 10S IN THE COLDEST SPOTS, WITH
QUITE A FEW LOW 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

MONDAY: LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET. COULD BE A FAIRLY SUNNY DAY AS WEAK
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WENT WITH BLEND OF GUIDANCE BUT
ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S.

TUESDAY: WARM FRONT STARTS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS ARE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS. SAW NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THE CONSISTENT MODELS, SO
IDEA OF CHANCE LEVEL POPS, HIGHEST IN NORTHERN SECTIONS WHERE THE
MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST. TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND
WE`LL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (PUSHING 50F IN THE VALLEYS)

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ENSURE MILD
TEMPERATURES BOTH DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT, HOWEVER IT APPEARS A
FRONT WILL GET STRUNG OUT NEAR/ACROSS THE REGION AND BE A FOCUS
FOR ON-AND-OFF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BOTH DAYS. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE RIBBON OF
MOISTURE, BUT ENOUGH SIMILARITY TO KEEP WITH 50-60% CHANCES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
HIGHS, BUT WITH THE CLOUDS, IT WILL STAY WARMER THAN NORMAL AT
NIGHT (50S IN THE DAY, 40S AT NIGHT).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...IR SATL SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACRS OUR TAF
SITES TONIGHT...WITH CIGS BTWN 3000 FEET AND 5000 FEET AGL. COULD
SEE BRIEF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AT BTV...OTHERWISE EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS THRU 00Z SATURDAY. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES OUR REGION
ON FRIDAY EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL LLVL MOISTURE AND CHCS FOR
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE MENTION VCSH AFT 03Z AT
SLK/MSS...AND REDUCED CIGS TO MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING...WL BECOME NORTH/NORTHEAST TODAY AT 3 TO 7 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE COMBINATION OF MID LVL MOISTURE AND ENERGY ALOFT WL INCREASE
THE THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP WITH IFR CIGS/VIS
POSSIBLE AT SLK...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS WL LINGER INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
BY MONDAY. ALSO...BREEZY TO GUSTY NORTH WINDS WL DEVELOP LATE SAT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH SFC GUSTS BTWN 20 AND 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KALY 310431
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1231 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EDT...A CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION BUT
TEMPERATURES WERE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND IN SOME
CASES SOME LOCAL TERRAIN INDUCED BREEZES. WE DECIDED NOT TO TINKER
WITH ANY LOWS AS EVEN DOWN AT POUGHKEEPSIE...WHERE IT WAS STILL IN
THE MID 40S...MONTOGMERY AND PHILMONT WERE ONLY 35!

IT WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BOTTOMING
OUT IN THE 30S...LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION. THE
WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO MONITOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE A
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL
DIVE SOUTH AND CLOSE-OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
VIRGINIA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT THIS LOW WILL TRACK WELL TO
THE EAST OF OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE FAR
EAST WHERE SOME STEADIER PRECIPITATION MIGHT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
OR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE SHIELD OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL GET AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL MASS... WHILE THE
NAM IS A BIT FARTHER EAST.

OTHERWISE THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL BE
COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HAVE GONE WITH POP VALUES MAINLY NEAR 30 PERCENT FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THIS. EXPECT LOWEST POPS TO BE
IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE WEST OF THE CATSKILLS AS THE FLOW WILL BE NNW INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A DRY UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY BUT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE MODERATING WEATHER AS THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH RIDGING BUILDING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS... FOLLOWED
BY COOLER BUT NOT REALLY VERY COLD WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATER TIME PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z SATURDAY. SKIES WILL BE SCT-BKN
FROM 4-6 KFT THIS EVENING...THEN SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUD CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY
ALONG WITH SCT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES WILL TURN OVC DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS MAINLY ARND 10 KFT.

WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 5 TO 10 THIS EVENING... BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN NE-SE AT 4-5 KTS ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KOKX 310406 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1206 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY AND TRACKS NORTHEAST. A SECONDARY
LOW FORMING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY WILL INTENSIFY
AND HEAD NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SUNDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS STORM FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF FAST MOVING COLD FRONTS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO CLEAN UP HOURLY
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BASED ON
LATEST GUIDANCE AND TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. THE FORECAST OVERALL
APPEARS ON TRACK.

WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...WIND IS NEARLY
CALM.

STILL ON TRACK MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT FEW-SCT LOWER CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE AND WEAK POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION TRACKS OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE
CAROLINAS. MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE CARVES OUT LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES.

WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW
LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME SUPPORT ALOFT...AND A
MOISTENING COLUMN DUE TO INCREASING EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW BELOW H8
HPA...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND NE FLOW. NEAR NORMAL READINGS ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GUIDANCE REMAINS MOSTLY CONSISTENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF A STORM
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. FIRST...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG AN OFFSHORE FRONT WILL BRING MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN TO
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN LONG ISLAND/SE CT WITH CAT
POP...WITH LIKELY POP AS FAR BACK AS NYC METRO. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY SAT
BETWEEN THE LATEST RUNS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE LATEST
GFS SOONER AND A LITTLE FARTHER EAST...AND THE ECMWF WETTER AND
LATER OUT EAST...HAVE SMOOTHED OUT THESE DIFFERENCES FOR NOW WITH
A GENERAL ALL DAY EVENT.

FOCUS OF RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST SAT NIGHT...WITH
DECREASING POP AS THIS FIRST LOW LIFTS TO THE NE. PRECIP COULD
BRIEFLY END AS SOME SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS WELL NORTH/WEST. AS A STRONGER LOW FORMS NEAR CAPE
HATTERAS AND THEN TRACKS OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY...ITS RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AS IT FAILS
TO PHASE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO ITS WEST. ITS MORE IMPORTANT
IMPACTS WILL BE AND COOLER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH A BRISK N
FLOW AS AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AROUND BETWEEN IT AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THERE
SHOULD ALSO BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY STRATO CUMULUS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BARELY REACH 50 IN NYC METRO
AND LONG ISLAND...AND REMAIN IN THE 40S INLAND.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...BUT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FROM COMPLETELY DECOUPLING IN MOST PLACES. ASA RESULT STUCK CLOSE
TO GUIDANCE LOWS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND DID NOT UNDERCUT...WITH LOWS
25-30 WELL INLAND...LOWER 30S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND MID 30S FOR
NYC.

AFTER ONE MORE COOL DAY ON MON WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S...TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
MID WEEK PERIOD AS A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST. SHOULD THEN SEE A SERIES OF
WEAK...FAST MOVING COLD FRONTS PASSING THROUGH IN FAST QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW...WITH CHANCE POP FOR RAIN SHOWERS NORTH/WEST OF NYC
ON WED...AND THROUGHOUT THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY...WHILE LOW PRESSURE DROPS SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A
SECONDARY COASTAL LOW THEN DEEPENS ON FRIDAY AND TRACKS NE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS BY
LATE FRI AFTERNOON. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS AFTER 00Z SAT WITH THE
ONSET OF -RA.

WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE N OVERNIGHT AND NE ON FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER. PCPN MAINLY RAIN...BUT SNOW
MAY MIX IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR SUN NIGHT. NE-N WINDS
15-20G25-35KT.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. AFT STRATO CU WITH ISOLATED
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. NW WINDS 20-25G30-35KT.
.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE.

WIND REMAINS NORTHWEST AROUND 12 KT OR LESS WITH MINIMAL
GUSTS...AND SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SEAS RUNNING AROUND 2 FT
ON THE OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS.

WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
THEN WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO INCREASE...WITH THIS MOST NOTABLE AT FIRST OVER THE
EASTERN MOST COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. E-NE WINDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT TO SCA THRESHOLDS.

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SEAS BUILD LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
WINDS INCREASE. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SAT...BUT
IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER GALES WILL DEVELOP THAT EARLY DUE
TO TIMING UNCERTAINTY OF AN INITIAL LOW PASSING TO THE SE. GALES
APPEAR MORE LIKELY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND PASSES TO THE SE...WITH CAA OVER STILL
RELATIVELY MILD WATERS AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

AFTER SOME LINGERING GALES ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS SUNDAY
EVENING...SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD OTHERWISE FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MON FOR MOST WATERS. THEN QUIET CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
ALL WATERS BY MON NIGHT. INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A RETURN OF SCA CONDITIONS TO THE ERN OCEAN WATERS
LATE TUE NIGHT-WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A
HALF INCH...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY ACROSS ERN LONG
ISLAND AND SE CT. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/MET/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...MALOIT/MET/GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 310406 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1206 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY AND TRACKS NORTHEAST. A SECONDARY
LOW FORMING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY WILL INTENSIFY
AND HEAD NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SUNDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS STORM FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF FAST MOVING COLD FRONTS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO CLEAN UP HOURLY
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BASED ON
LATEST GUIDANCE AND TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. THE FORECAST OVERALL
APPEARS ON TRACK.

WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...WIND IS NEARLY
CALM.

STILL ON TRACK MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT FEW-SCT LOWER CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE AND WEAK POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION TRACKS OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE
CAROLINAS. MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE CARVES OUT LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES.

WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW
LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME SUPPORT ALOFT...AND A
MOISTENING COLUMN DUE TO INCREASING EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW BELOW H8
HPA...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND NE FLOW. NEAR NORMAL READINGS ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GUIDANCE REMAINS MOSTLY CONSISTENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF A STORM
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. FIRST...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG AN OFFSHORE FRONT WILL BRING MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN TO
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN LONG ISLAND/SE CT WITH CAT
POP...WITH LIKELY POP AS FAR BACK AS NYC METRO. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY SAT
BETWEEN THE LATEST RUNS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE LATEST
GFS SOONER AND A LITTLE FARTHER EAST...AND THE ECMWF WETTER AND
LATER OUT EAST...HAVE SMOOTHED OUT THESE DIFFERENCES FOR NOW WITH
A GENERAL ALL DAY EVENT.

FOCUS OF RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST SAT NIGHT...WITH
DECREASING POP AS THIS FIRST LOW LIFTS TO THE NE. PRECIP COULD
BRIEFLY END AS SOME SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS WELL NORTH/WEST. AS A STRONGER LOW FORMS NEAR CAPE
HATTERAS AND THEN TRACKS OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY...ITS RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AS IT FAILS
TO PHASE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO ITS WEST. ITS MORE IMPORTANT
IMPACTS WILL BE AND COOLER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH A BRISK N
FLOW AS AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AROUND BETWEEN IT AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THERE
SHOULD ALSO BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY STRATO CUMULUS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BARELY REACH 50 IN NYC METRO
AND LONG ISLAND...AND REMAIN IN THE 40S INLAND.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...BUT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FROM COMPLETELY DECOUPLING IN MOST PLACES. ASA RESULT STUCK CLOSE
TO GUIDANCE LOWS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND DID NOT UNDERCUT...WITH LOWS
25-30 WELL INLAND...LOWER 30S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND MID 30S FOR
NYC.

AFTER ONE MORE COOL DAY ON MON WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S...TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
MID WEEK PERIOD AS A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST. SHOULD THEN SEE A SERIES OF
WEAK...FAST MOVING COLD FRONTS PASSING THROUGH IN FAST QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW...WITH CHANCE POP FOR RAIN SHOWERS NORTH/WEST OF NYC
ON WED...AND THROUGHOUT THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY...WHILE LOW PRESSURE DROPS SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A
SECONDARY COASTAL LOW THEN DEEPENS ON FRIDAY AND TRACKS NE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS BY
LATE FRI AFTERNOON. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS AFTER 00Z SAT WITH THE
ONSET OF -RA.

WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE N OVERNIGHT AND NE ON FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER. PCPN MAINLY RAIN...BUT SNOW
MAY MIX IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR SUN NIGHT. NE-N WINDS
15-20G25-35KT.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. AFT STRATO CU WITH ISOLATED
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. NW WINDS 20-25G30-35KT.
.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE.

WIND REMAINS NORTHWEST AROUND 12 KT OR LESS WITH MINIMAL
GUSTS...AND SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SEAS RUNNING AROUND 2 FT
ON THE OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS.

WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
THEN WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO INCREASE...WITH THIS MOST NOTABLE AT FIRST OVER THE
EASTERN MOST COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. E-NE WINDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT TO SCA THRESHOLDS.

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SEAS BUILD LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
WINDS INCREASE. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SAT...BUT
IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER GALES WILL DEVELOP THAT EARLY DUE
TO TIMING UNCERTAINTY OF AN INITIAL LOW PASSING TO THE SE. GALES
APPEAR MORE LIKELY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND PASSES TO THE SE...WITH CAA OVER STILL
RELATIVELY MILD WATERS AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

AFTER SOME LINGERING GALES ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS SUNDAY
EVENING...SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD OTHERWISE FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MON FOR MOST WATERS. THEN QUIET CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
ALL WATERS BY MON NIGHT. INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A RETURN OF SCA CONDITIONS TO THE ERN OCEAN WATERS
LATE TUE NIGHT-WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A
HALF INCH...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY ACROSS ERN LONG
ISLAND AND SE CT. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/MET/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...MALOIT/MET/GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 310404
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1204 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY AND TRACKS NORTHEAST. A SECONDARY
LOW FORMING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY WILL INTENSIFY
AND HEAD NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SUNDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS STORM FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF FAST MOVING COLD FRONTS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO CLEAN UP HOURLY
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BASED ON
LATEST GUIDANCE AND TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. THE FORECAST OVERALL
APPEARS ON TRACK.

WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...WIND IS NEARLY
CALM.

STILL ON TRACK MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT FEW-SCT LOWER CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE AND WEAK POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION TRACKS OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE
CAROLINAS. MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE CARVES OUT LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES.

WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW
LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME SUPPORT ALOFT...AND A
MOISTENING COLUMN DUE TO INCREASING EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW BELOW H8
HPA...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND NE FLOW. NEAR NORMAL READINGS ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GUIDANCE REMAINS MOSTLY CONSISTENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF A STORM
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. FIRST...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG AN OFFSHORE FRONT WILL BRING MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN TO
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN LONG ISLAND/SE CT WITH CAT
POP...WITH LIKELY POP AS FAR BACK AS NYC METRO. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY SAT
BETWEEN THE LATEST RUNS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE LATEST
GFS SOONER AND A LITTLE FARTHER EAST...AND THE ECMWF WETTER AND
LATER OUT EAST...HAVE SMOOTHED OUT THESE DIFFERENCES FOR NOW WITH
A GENERAL ALL DAY EVENT.

FOCUS OF RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST SAT NIGHT...WITH
DECREASING POP AS THIS FIRST LOW LIFTS TO THE NE. PRECIP COULD
BRIEFLY END AS SOME SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS WELL NORTH/WEST. AS A STRONGER LOW FORMS NEAR CAPE
HATTERAS AND THEN TRACKS OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY...ITS RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AS IT FAILS
TO PHASE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO ITS WEST. ITS MORE IMPORTANT
IMPACTS WILL BE AND COOLER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH A BRISK N
FLOW AS AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AROUND BETWEEN IT AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THERE
SHOULD ALSO BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY STRATO CUMULUS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BARELY REACH 50 IN NYC METRO
AND LONG ISLAND...AND REMAIN IN THE 40S INLAND.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...BUT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FROM COMPLETELY DECOUPLING IN MOST PLACES. ASA RESULT STUCK CLOSE
TO GUIDANCE LOWS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND DID NOT UNDERCUT...WITH LOWS
25-30 WELL INLAND...LOWER 30S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND MID 30S FOR
NYC.

AFTER ONE MORE COOL DAY ON MON WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S...TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
MID WEEK PERIOD AS A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST. SHOULD THEN SEE A SERIES OF
WEAK...FAST MOVING COLD FRONTS PASSING THROUGH IN FAST QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW...WITH CHANCE POP FOR RAIN SHOWERS NORTH/WEST OF NYC
ON WED...AND THROUGHOUT THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY...WHILE LOW PRESSURE DROPS SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A
SECONDARY COASTAL LOW THEN DEEPENS ON FRIDAY AND TRACKS NE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS BY
LATE FRI AFTERNOON. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS AFTER 00Z SAT WITH THE
ONSET OF -RA.

WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE N OVERNIGHT AND NE ON FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER. PCPN MAINLY RAIN...BUT SNOW
MAY MIX IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR SUN NIGHT. NE-N WINDS
15-20G25-35KT.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. AFT STRATO CU WITH ISOLATED
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. NW WINDS 20-25G30-35KT.
.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE.

WIND REMAINS NORTHWEST AROUND 12 KT OR LESS WITH MINIMAL
GUSTS...AND SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT ON
THE OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS.

WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
THEN WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO INCREASE...WITH THIS MOST NOTABLE AT FIRST OVER THE
EASTERN MOST COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. E-NE WINDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT TO SCA THRESHOLDS.

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SEAS BUILD LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
WINDS INCREASE. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SAT...BUT
IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER GALES WILL DEVELOP THAT EARLY DUE
TO TIMING UNCERTAINTY OF AN INITIAL LOW PASSING TO THE SE. GALES
APPEAR MORE LIKELY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND PASSES TO THE SE...WITH CAA OVER STILL
RELATIVELY MILD WATERS AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

AFTER SOME LINGERING GALES ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS SUNDAY
EVENING...SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD OTHERWISE FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MON FOR MOST WATERS. THEN QUIET CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
ALL WATERS BY MON NIGHT. INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A RETURN OF SCA CONDITIONS TO THE ERN OCEAN WATERS
LATE TUE NIGHT-WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A
HALF INCH...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY ACROSS ERN LONG
ISLAND AND SE CT. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/MET/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...MALOIT/MET/GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW





000
FXUS61 KBGM 310249
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1049 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...PERHAPS BRINGING SOME RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES AWAY BY LATER
SUNDAY...DRIER WEATHER...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES...SHOULD
THEN BE THE RULE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1045 PM UPDATE..
UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL
FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.


225 PM THU UPDATE... PLUME OF LAKE-EFFECT -SHRA CONTINUES LATE
THIS AFTN FROM ROUGHLY KSYR SEWD TOWARDS ONEONTA. WE STILL EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN...THEN ULTIMATELY DSIPT BY THIS EVE.

HOWEVER...THE THICK MASS OF SC CLDS OVER CNY/NE PA WILL VERY
LIKELY HANG IN LONGER...AS UPSLOPE NWLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO
TNT...AND MOISTURE STAYS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ALOFT. MOST MODEL RH PROFILES BEGIN TO DRY OUT THE BLYR AFTER
03-06Z...SPCLY OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH WE DO LOSE
THE LAKE CONNECTION/UPSLOPE COMPONENT OVERNIGHT...THE INVERSION
WILL REMAIN. OUR GUT FEELING IS THAT WE`LL GRADUALLY LOSE THE SC
CLDS ACRS NE PA AND PTNS OF NY`S SRN TIER...WITH THE NRN ZNS
KEEPING THE LWR CLDS A BIT LONGER.

TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY TNT...DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER. FOR
NOW...WE HAVE LOWS RANGING IN THE 30S (WITH LWR 30S IN THE
POCONOS/CATSKILLS WHERE CLEARING IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR...AND UPR
30S TO NEAR 40 IN THE LAKE PLAIN CNTYS...WHERE THICKER CLDS SHOULD
PREVAIL FOR A LONGER PD OF TIME).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
235 PM THU UPDATE... THE WELL ADVERTISED DEEPENING TROUGH PATN
OVER THE ERN STATES IS STILL EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE THIS PD.

ALTHOUGH SOME SMALL MODEL TO MODEL DIFFS REMAIN...LARGE-SCALE
AGREEMENT IS PRETTY GOOD THAT A SRN BRANCH OF THIS TROUGH WILL
SPLIT...AND THEN CLOSE OFF OVER VA/NC BY SAT...ULTIMATELY
AMPLIFYING OFFSHORE...AND SPINNING UP A ROBUST SFC CYCLONE WELL OFF
THE COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...THE NRN BRANCH OF THE TROUGH WILL LAG
A BIT BEHIND...AND CROSS NY/PA SAT NGT/EARLY SUN.

THE SRN BRANCH TROUGH AND DEEP OCEANIC STORM STILL APPEAR TO BE
TOO FAR REMOVED TO OUR E AND S TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON OUR FCST
AREA. HOWEVER...THE NRN BRANCH TROUGH SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SCTD
RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FRI NGT...SAT...AND SAT NGT...AS INSTAB/FORCED LIFT ACTS
UPON THE MOISTURE SUPPLY IN PLACE. THERMAL PROFILES LOOK TOO WARM
FOR ANYTHING BUT LIQUID PTYPE FRI NGT AND SAT...HOWEVER BY SAT
NGT/SUN MRNG...WE SHOULD TREND TWDS SNOW.

DEPENDING ON JUST HOW QUICKLY THE MID-LVLS DRY OUT SAT NGT/EARLY
SUN...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR FINGER LAKES SNOW
BAND DVLPMT...GIVEN A DEEP NRLY FLOW PATN...SUFFICIENT LAKE/AIR
TEMP DIFFS...AND POTENTIALLY ADEQUATE MOISTURE SUPPLY. ONCE
AGN...THE EXACT BLYR FLOW ORIENTATION AND LONGEVITY OF DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE KEY FACTORS IN THIS REGARD.

FOR NOW...WE`LL CONTINUE WITH CHC/SCTD POP`S FRI NGT-SAT NGT FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH THINGS DRYING OUT BY SUN AFTN. TEMPS WILL
BE CHILLY THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S SAT...AND IN
THE 30S-LWR 40S SUN. READINGS SAT NGT SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPR
20S-LWR 30S IN MOST LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1 PM THU UPDATE... DEEP UPR-LVL TROUGH ALG THE EAST COAST AT THE
START OF THE PD...WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING AWAY TO THE NE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ITS WAKE...SFC RIDGING...AND ALSO S/WV RIDGING
ALOFT...WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY WX AND MODERATING TEMPS MON-TUE.

OUR NEXT SHOT AT PCPN WILL LIKELY COME TWDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WHEN AN UPR-LVL TROUGH WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE W...ALG WITH A SFC FRONTAL
COMPLEX. AS A RESULT...WE`VE INSERTED SCTD SHWRS STARTING LATER
TUE NGT...THEN PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST WED.

AS ALLUDED TO ABV...READINGS WILL BE ON THE UPSWING NEXT WEEK...WITH
DAILY HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS AN SC DECK IS BREAKING UP TO SOME EXTENT AS A SMALL HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO NY AND PA. CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM THAT CIGS WILL REMAIN ABV MVFR. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE
WONT SEE IFR AT ANY OF OUR TAF SITES TONIGHT. BEST CHC FOR BRIEF MVFR
WILL BE AT BGM AND ITH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. THEN FOR FRI
EXPECT MAINLY MID TO HI CLDS. SOME LOWER CLDS WILL POSSIBLY WORK
INTO KAVP LATE IN THE PD.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT-SAT NGT...OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN-TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DJN







000
FXUS61 KOKX 310245
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1045 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY AND TRACKS NORTHEAST. A SECONDARY
LOW FORMING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY WILL INTENSIFY
AND HEAD NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SUNDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS STORM FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF FAST MOVING COLD FRONTS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST WITH MAINLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS. WITH THE WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT WIND WAS
NEARLY CALM ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

WITH THE CURRENT UPDATE ADJUSTED FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS STILL ON TRACK.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AND PVA DIVES ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE GULF STATES...MOVING EAST TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND MOVES QUICKLY
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. FEW TO SCATTERED CU SHOULD GIVE
WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH DO EXPECT FEW
TO SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL PER MOS
BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE AND WEAK PVA TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WITH SFC
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINAS. MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE
CARVES OUT LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
MAIN TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW LATER
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME SUPPORT ALOFT...AND A MOISTENING
COLUMN DUE TO INCREASING EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW BELOW H8 HPA...EXPECT
LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND NE FLOW. NEAR NORMAL READINGS ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GUIDANCE REMAINS MOSTLY CONSISTENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF A STORM
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. FIRST...LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG AN OFFSHORE FRONT WILL BRING MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN LONG ISLAND/SE CT WITH CAT POP...WITH
LIKELY POP AS FAR BACK AS NYC METRO. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND RAINFALL AMTS DURING THE DAY SAT BETWEEN THE LATEST
RUNS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE LATEST GFS SOONER AND A
LITTLE FARTHER EAST...AND THE ECMWF WETTER AND LATER OUT
EAST...HAVE SMOOTHED OUT THESE DIFFERENCES FOR NOW WITH A GENERAL
ALL DAY EVENT.

FOCUS OF RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST SAT NIGHT...WITH
DECREASING POP AS THIS FIRST LOW LIFTS TO THE NE. PRECIP COULD
BRIEFLY END AS SOME SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS WELL NORTH/WEST. AS A STRONGER LOW FORMS NEAR CAPE
HATTERAS AND THEN TRACKS OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY...ITS RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AS IT FAILS TO PHASE
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO ITS WEST. ITS MORE IMPORTANT IMPACTS WILL
BE AND COOLER CONDS ON SUNDAY...WITH A BRISK N FLOW AS AS THE LOW
INTENSIFIES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AROUND BETWEEN IT
AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY STRATOCU AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS.
HIGHS WILL ONLY BARELY REACH 50 IN NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND...AND
REMAIN IN THE 40S INLAND.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...BUT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM
COMPLETELY DECOUPLING IN MOST PLACES. ASA RESULT STUCK CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE LOWS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND DID NOT UNDERCUT...WITH LOWS
25-30 WELL INLAND...LOWER 30S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND MID 30S FOR NYC.

AFTER ONE MORE COOL DAY ON MON WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S...TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD AS A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE EAST. SHOULD THEN SEE A SERIES OF WEAK...FAST MOVING
COLD FRONTS PASSING THROUGH IN FAST QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...WITH CHANCE
POP FOR RAIN SHOWERS NORTH/WEST OF NYC ON WED...AND THROUGHOUT THE
AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY...WHILE LOW PRESSURE DROPS SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A
SECONDARY COASTAL LOW THEN DEEPENS ON FRIDAY AND TRACKS NE OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS BY LATE
FRI AFTERNOON. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS AFTER 00Z SAT WITH THE ONSET
OF -RA.

WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE N OVERNIGHT AND NE ON FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NGT-SAT NGT...MVFR OR LOWER. PCPN MAINLY RAIN...BUT SNOW MAY
MIX IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR SUN NIGHT. NE-N WINDS 15-20G25-35KT.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. AFT STRATO CU WITH ISOLATED
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. NW WINDS 20-25G30-35KT.
.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND REMAINS NORTHWEST AROUND 12 KT WITH MINIMAL GUSTS. SEAS
RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS ON THE REMAINDER
OF THE WATERS.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THEN MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...NW WINDS WILL
TURN TOWARD THE N TONIGHT. THE WINDS THEN TURN TO THE NE AND
INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. THESE E/NE WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT...LIKELY TO SCA
THRESHOLDS.

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SEAS BUILD LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
WINDS INCREASE. SCA CONDS ARE LIKELY BY SAT...BUT IT IS STILL
UNCERTAIN WHETHER GALES WILL DEVELOP THAT EARLY DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY OF AN INITIAL LOW PASSING TO THE SE. GALES APPEAR MORE
LIKELY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS AND PASSES TO THE SE...WITH CAA OVER STILL RELATIVELY
MILD WATERS AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

AFTER SOME LINGERING GALES ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS SUNDAY
EVENING...SCA CONDS SHOULD OTHERWISE FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MON FOR MOST WATERS. THEN QUIET CONDS SHOULD RETURN TO ALL WATERS
BY MON NIGHT. INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT COULD BRING
A RETURN OF SCA CONDS TO THE ERN OCEAN WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT-WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A
HALF INCH...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY ACROSS ERN LONG
ISLAND AND SE CT. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...MET/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW







000
FXUS61 KBUF 310220
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1020 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND SATURDAY...USHERING IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG
WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIQUID...ALTHOUGH A FEW WET
SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARMING TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS EVENING SHOWING A WEALTH OF STRATUS
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BENEATH AN INCREASING DECK OF HIGH CIRRUS
LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THERE ARE STILL A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN
THESE AREAS AS WELL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. UPSTREAM RADARS SHOW
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS APPROACHING OUR REGION YET...SO ANY
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN A WARM FRONT
BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

THE DEVELOPING SURFACE WARM FRONT WITH THIS LOW WILL BE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION
DEVELOPING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
LOCKED IN PLACE WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT MAINLY FOR AREAS
NEAR LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS THE ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT DEVELOPS
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SPLITTING SOLUTION...WITH THE MAIN
VORTICITY MAX DIGGING INTO THE CAROLINAS...LEAVING OUR AREA UNDER
WEAK / SPLIT FLOW ALOFT. WE WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
FORECAST AREA WITH DECENT MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THE WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AS THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD. OUR BEST CHANCE OF MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NY. WHILE QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT DUE TO THE LACK OF WELL-DEFINED FORCING...THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LESS RAINFALL
TO THE EAST...ESPECIALLY DROPPING OFF EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
THE ROCHESTER AREA.

TEMPERATURE VARIANCE WILL BE VERY LOW BETWEEN TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AS CLOUD COVER AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT CLOUD COVER AND
INCREASING PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH DURING THE DAY. THE DIURNAL RANGE
IN TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE AROUND 10 DEGREES...WITH LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND MID 30S IN THE
INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGION...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND MID 40S ON THE
HILLS FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL BE A WET START TO THE WEEKEND...AT LEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK AND PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AS THE AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO IN THE
WAKE OF A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CUTTING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. OROGRAPHIC LIFT
WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE APPROACH OF A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED LIFT. WHILE TEMPERATURES ALOFT...IN THE -2C TO -4C
RANGE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO ADD LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE MIX...IT WILL NOT LIKELY BE COLD ENOUGH TO FACILITATE A
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW. RATHER...WESTERN NEW YORK CAN EXPECT A
GENERAL LIGHT RAINFALL THROUGH THE NIGHT. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY UNDER
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW...AND AS SUCH ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED
IN SCOPE AND MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RELATIVELY
MILD MARITIME AIR FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THAT WILL KEEP LOWS FROM
DROPPING OUT OF THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH AREAS ALONG THE LAKE
PLAINS LIKELY STAYING IN THE LOWER 40S.

THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH THE FOCUS OF
PRECIPITATION SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EAST TO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PRESENT THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AS THE COMBINATION OF
NIGHTFALL AND THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE FORECAST AIR. HOWEVER THE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WILL BE THE DRY AIR ALOFT THAT WILL BE ACCOMPANYING THIS
COLD PUSH. AS THE AIR IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DRIES OUT...THERE
IS A POTENTIAL THAT WE COULD SEE ANY UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS PETER OUT INTO PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR POSSIBLY JUST
LAKE-INDUCED STRATUS WITH NO PRECIPITATION AT ALL.

ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD FIZZLE OUT SUNDAY MORNING
AS INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL OVERCOME ANY LAKE
ENHANCEMENT...THOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO
GO AROUND ON WHAT WILL OTHERWISE BE A DRY AND CHILLY DAY WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE LAKES AND
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY WILL LIKELY
STAY LOCKED IN THE UPPER 30S. WE CAN THEN EXPECT ONE MORE NIGHT OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE NEXT
WEEK

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A COOL AND SHOWER WEEKEND...WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
WILL TRANSITION TO A DRIER AND MORE MILD REGIME AS WE MOVE INTO THE
NEW WEEK. THIS WILL BE COURTESY OF STEEP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL
BE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. FLOW BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST
WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...PUSHING
TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE THE 50 DEGREE MARK MONDAY AND BY TUESDAY
MANY AREAS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS A 60 DEGREE
READING OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE TYPICALLY WARMER SPOTS
OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE FINGER LAKES. ALTHOUGH THE
WARM ADVECTION WILL PUT AN END TO ANY LAKE EFFECT CLOUD
COVER...THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO GO
AROUND MONDAY AND TUESDAY COURTESY OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.

AFTER A DRY START TO THE WEEK...WE WILL SEE SHOWERS CREEP BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
LOW LIFT FROM WESTERN ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. AS THE LOW
TRACKS INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC...IT WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
ARE INDICATING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE FAVORABLE FRONTOGENETIC AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING
AND RETURN FLOW SUPPLYING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
LOWER LAKES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS NOW SHOW SOME DIVERGENCE IN SOLUTIONS
REGARDING THE SPEED OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
THE GFS BRINGS A FRONTAL WAVE ACROSS NEW YORK THAT SLOWS UP THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF SPEEDS THE FRONT THROUGH WITH A
REINFORCING SHORTWAVE BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES...WILL JUST COVER THE PERIOD WITH LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING AND KEEP TEMERPATURES RIGHT AROUND
CLIMATOLOGY AS THE REGION WILL LIKELY BE AWASH IN A MILD PACIFIC
AIRMASS THAT WILL BE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A DECK OF CLOUDS IN THE
3500-5000 FOOT RANGE. OVERNIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE
SOMEWHAT AS AN ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE LOWER LAKES.
THE ADDED WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING
SHOULD SUPPORT CIGS LOWERING INTO THE MVFR RANGE IN MANY AREAS. A
FEW LIGHT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP CLOSE TO LAKE ERIE AND
ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO WEAK WARM ADVECTION...BUT VSBY
SHOULD REMAIN VFR GIVEN THE LIGHT AND SCATTERED NATURE OF THIS
ACTIVITY.

ON FRIDAY A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY MAINLY NEAR LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO. MVFR
CIGS EARLY SHOULD TREND TO MAINLY VFR BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH MVFR LINGERING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DURING
THE AFTERNOON WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ONTARIO PROVINCE AND LAKE ERIE. CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT FROM AN
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD PRODUCE MORE NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NY. EXPECT CIGS TO DROP
TO MVFR AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS...WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARD EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH MVFR DETERIORATING TO IFR.
SATURDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR WITH SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CHOPPY WAVE ACTION ON THE EAST
HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS BOTH LAKE ERIE
AND LAKE ONTARIO...BEFORE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH RELATIVELY FLAT WAVE ACTION.

STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH WINDS OVER 20KTS COMMON ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. WAVE
HEIGHTS SHOULD INCREASE TO 3 TO 6 FEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN
LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THUS HAVE ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY
         FOR LOZ030-042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK






000
FXUS61 KBTV 310209
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1009 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER
WITH LIGHT WINDS...BUT A CONTINUATION OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.
MEANWHILE...A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRANSLATE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND RESULT
IN A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1009 PM EDT THURSDAY...TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID-30S TO THE
MID- 40S LATE THIS EVENING AS EFFECTS OF OVERCAST SKIES MINIMIZING
RADIATIVE COOLING. THE OVERCAST WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST DESPITE
BUILDING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
FILTER IN ON WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES. ANY COOLING THAT
TAKES PLACE WILL REMAIN SLOW. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS
PRETTY WELL WITH ONLY MODEST ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS WITH THIS
UPDATE. LOWS IN THE 30S IN MANY LOCALES...HIGHEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND ADJACENT TO THE SHORE OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT THURSDAY...DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. NOT MUCH INFLUENCE FROM THIS SYSTEM
ON FRIDAY...WITH JUST A WEAK SURFACE LOW REFLECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS OHIO WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH NNEWD ACROSS SERN
ONTARIO TO NEAR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. MAIN INFLUENCE WILL BE
INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION...ALONG WITH
STRATUS LAYER WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE AS WELL. ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO A FEW RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY ALONG/NEAR THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. THUS...SHOWING JUST
20-30 POPS ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. P-GRADIENT QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...SO
WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE LIGHT N-NE MOST LOCATIONS...AND LOCALLY
5-10 MPH ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR
40S...EXCEPT LOW 50S FOR THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE WITH UPPER LOW DIGGING TO OUR S-SW DURING
FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOKING FOR A CONTINUATION OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS
IN THE MID-UPR 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

QUESTION FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MID-
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PHASING WITHIN THE BROADER UPPER TROUGH
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. MODELS VARY ON
EXTENT OF PHASING AND ULTIMATE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN LOW
DEVELOPMENT...WITH CLOSED SFC-700MB LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
BY EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z NAM IS GENERALLY DRY ACROSS OUR
REGION WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM DEVELOPING FURTHER OUT TO SEA.
SIMILARLY...THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N 70W BENCHMARKS WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS PREVIOUS IDEA WITH A NUDGE TOWARD THE
12Z GFS. THIS MEANS SOME LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COOL ACROSS THE REGION. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
EASTERN/NERN VERMONT WITH FRINGE INFLUENCE OF LOW IN THE GULF OF
MAINE. LOOKING AT JUST A DUSTING TO AN 1" OR SO ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOCALLY 1-3" ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL/NRN GREENS INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HIGHS SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE
40S WITH LOWER 30S EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY...IN GENERAL, THE 12Z SUITE OF MODELS
DON`T OFFER ANY LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN
AND ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO ONE ANOTHER. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES, THOUGH SUBTLE, THAT COULD EFFECT THE ACTUAL WEATHER
WE OBSERVE (AND THUS THE FORECAST CHALLENGE). WE ARE STILL LOOKING
AT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED POWERFUL STORM TO MOVE BY
FAR ENOUGH OFF THE COAST TO AVOID ANY SIGNIFICANT DIRECT IMPACT ON
THE REGION, BUT WE`LL NOTICE A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER (COLD,
BREEZY, CHANCES FOR HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY). THE
PATTERN IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SO BY TUESDAY WE RETURN TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WITH THE WEATHER TURNING MILDER, THOUGH REMAINING UNSETTLED.
DON`T SEE A LOT OF SUNNY WEATHER IN OUR FUTURE. A FEW MORE DETAILS
FOLLOW...

SUNDAY: 12Z GFS HAS COME IN A SMIDGE WEST OF PREVIOUS RUNS AND
KEEP A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION, ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN HALF. THE 12Z EURO IS A LITTLE
WEAKER WITH THE STORM, AND DOES NOT HAVE AS MUCH MOISTURE IN PLACE
FOR US. TAKEN AT FACE VALUE, THE GFS DOES INDICATE ABOUT
0.05-0.10" MELTED EQUIVALENT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN VERMONT AND INTO THE `DACKS. THE EURO IS DRY. THINK THE
OVERALL FORECAST IDEA WE`VE HAD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THERE TO
BE SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN/EASTERN VERMONT LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER GIVEN THE 12Z GFS,
DID DECIDE TO INTRODUCE SOME SMALL POPS INTO THE `DACKS AS WELL.
NET RESULT, HAVE SOME 10-30% POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY,
HIGHEST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION, BUT PERHAPS ENOUGH TO WRING OUT 1" OR SO
AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500FT DURING THE DAY. A COUPLE OF THINGS WE
ARE CONFIDENT OF IS A STRONG/GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND (PERHAPS
30MPH+ AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS VERMONT) AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT LEAST -5C, UNDER STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION, TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. THINK EVEN FOR BTV, WE WILL FAIL TO HIT 40F.

SUNDAY NIGHT: IF WE HAVEN`T CLEARED OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WE
WILL BY EVENING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH, BUT WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE (DEW POINTS INTO THE TEENS), TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL
PRETTY QUICK. LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST SUB-30F TEMPERATURES FOR
BURLINGTON. LOWS INTO THE UPPER 10S IN THE COLDEST SPOTS, WITH
QUITE A FEW LOW 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

MONDAY: LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET. COULD BE A FAIRLY SUNNY DAY AS WEAK
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WENT WITH BLEND OF GUIDANCE BUT
ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S.

TUESDAY: WARM FRONT STARTS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS ARE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS. SAW NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THE CONSISTENT MODELS, SO
IDEA OF CHANCE LEVEL POPS, HIGHEST IN NORTHERN SECTIONS WHERE THE
MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST. TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND
WE`LL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (PUSHING 50F IN THE VALLEYS)

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ENSURE MILD
TEMPERATURES BOTH DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT, HOWEVER IT APPEARS A
FRONT WILL GET STRUNG OUT NEAR/ACROSS THE REGION AND BE A FOCUS
FOR ON-AND-OFF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BOTH DAYS. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE RIBBON OF
MOISTURE, BUT ENOUGH SIMILARITY TO KEEP WITH 50-60% CHANCES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
HIGHS, BUT WITH THE CLOUDS, IT WILL STAY WARMER THAN NORMAL AT
NIGHT (50S IN THE DAY, 40S AT NIGHT).

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL EXIST OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THE CLOUDS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE VFR
CATEGORY. SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK AFTER 20Z WHERE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...BUT HAVE NO OBSTRUCTION TO VISIBILITY. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AT SPEEDS UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
00Z SAT-18Z SUN -- WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TURNING TO A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
18Z SUN-12Z TUES -- VFR. SURFACE WINDS MAY BE GUSTING OVER 20KTS
ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT 12Z TUES ONWARD -- MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A FEW
SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH




000
FXUS61 KOKX 310131
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
931 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY AND TRACKS NORTHEAST. A SECONDARY
LOW FORMING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY WILL INTENSIFY
AND HEAD NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SUNDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS STORM FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF FAST MOVING COLD FRONTS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST WITH MAINLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS. WITH THE WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT WIND WAS
NEARLY CALM ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

WITH THE CURRENT UPDATE ADJUSTED FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS STILL ON TRACK.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AND PVA DIVES ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE GULF STATES...MOVING EAST TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND MOVES QUICKLY
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. FEW TO SCATTERED CU SHOULD GIVE
WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH DO EXPECT FEW
TO SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL PER MOS
BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE AND WEAK PVA TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WITH SFC
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINAS. MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE
CARVES OUT LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
MAIN TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW LATER
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME SUPPORT ALOFT...AND A MOISTENING
COLUMN DUE TO INCREASING EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW BELOW H8 HPA...EXPECT
LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND NE FLOW. NEAR NORMAL READINGS ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GUIDANCE REMAINS MOSTLY CONSISTENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF A STORM
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. FIRST...LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG AN OFFSHORE FRONT WILL BRING MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN LONG ISLAND/SE CT WITH CAT POP...WITH
LIKELY POP AS FAR BACK AS NYC METRO. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND RAINFALL AMTS DURING THE DAY SAT BETWEEN THE LATEST
RUNS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE LATEST GFS SOONER AND A
LITTLE FARTHER EAST...AND THE ECMWF WETTER AND LATER OUT
EAST...HAVE SMOOTHED OUT THESE DIFFERENCES FOR NOW WITH A GENERAL
ALL DAY EVENT.

FOCUS OF RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST SAT NIGHT...WITH
DECREASING POP AS THIS FIRST LOW LIFTS TO THE NE. PRECIP COULD
BRIEFLY END AS SOME SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS WELL NORTH/WEST. AS A STRONGER LOW FORMS NEAR CAPE
HATTERAS AND THEN TRACKS OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY...ITS RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AS IT FAILS TO PHASE
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO ITS WEST. ITS MORE IMPORTANT IMPACTS WILL
BE AND COOLER CONDS ON SUNDAY...WITH A BRISK N FLOW AS AS THE LOW
INTENSIFIES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AROUND BETWEEN IT
AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY STRATOCU AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS.
HIGHS WILL ONLY BARELY REACH 50 IN NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND...AND
REMAIN IN THE 40S INLAND.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...BUT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM
COMPLETELY DECOUPLING IN MOST PLACES. ASA RESULT STUCK CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE LOWS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND DID NOT UNDERCUT...WITH LOWS
25-30 WELL INLAND...LOWER 30S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND MID 30S FOR NYC.

AFTER ONE MORE COOL DAY ON MON WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S...TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD AS A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE EAST. SHOULD THEN SEE A SERIES OF WEAK...FAST MOVING
COLD FRONTS PASSING THROUGH IN FAST QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...WITH CHANCE
POP FOR RAIN SHOWERS NORTH/WEST OF NYC ON WED...AND THROUGHOUT THE
AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY...WHILE LOW PRESSURE DROPS SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A
SECONDARY COASTAL LOW THEN DEEPENS ON FRIDAY AND TRACKS NE OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS BY LATE
FRI AFTERNOON. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS AFTER 00Z SAT WITH THE ONSET
OF -RA.

WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE N OVERNIGHT AND NE ON FRIDAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NGT-SAT NGT...MVFR OR LOWER. PCPN MAINLY RAIN...BUT SNOW MAY
MIX IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR SUN NIGHT. NE-N WINDS 15-20G25-35KT.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. AFT STRATO CU WITH ISOLATED
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. NW WINDS 20-25G30-35KT.
.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND REMAINS NORTHWEST AROUND 12 KT WITH MINIMAL GUSTS. SEAS
RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS ON THE REMAINDER
OF THE WATERS.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THEN MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...NW WINDS WILL
TURN TOWARD THE N TONIGHT. THE WINDS THEN TURN TO THE NE AND
INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. THESE E/NE WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT...LIKELY TO SCA
THRESHOLDS.

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SEAS BUILD LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
WINDS INCREASE. SCA CONDS ARE LIKELY BY SAT...BUT IT IS STILL
UNCERTAIN WHETHER GALES WILL DEVELOP THAT EARLY DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY OF AN INITIAL LOW PASSING TO THE SE. GALES APPEAR MORE
LIKELY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS AND PASSES TO THE SE...WITH CAA OVER STILL RELATIVELY
MILD WATERS AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

AFTER SOME LINGERING GALES ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS SUNDAY
EVENING...SCA CONDS SHOULD OTHERWISE FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MON FOR MOST WATERS. THEN QUIET CONDS SHOULD RETURN TO ALL WATERS
BY MON NIGHT. INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT COULD BRING
A RETURN OF SCA CONDS TO THE ERN OCEAN WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT-WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A
HALF INCH...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY ACROSS ERN LONG
ISLAND AND SE CT. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...MET/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW








000
FXUS61 KALY 310122
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
922 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 920 PM EDT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.
CLEARING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE VALLEYS THIS EVENING AND SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AS A SMALL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO MONITOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE A
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL
DIVE SOUTH AND CLOSE-OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
VIRGINIA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT THIS LOW WILL TRACK WELL TO
THE EAST OF OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE FAR
EAST WHERE SOME STEADIER PRECIPITATION MIGHT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
OR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE SHIELD OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL GET AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL MASS... WHILE THE
NAM IS A BIT FARTHER EAST.

OTHERWISE THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL BE
COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HAVE GONE WITH POP VALUES MAINLY NEAR 30 PERCENT FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THIS. EXPECT LOWEST POPS TO BE
IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE WEST OF THE CATSKILLS AS THE FLOW WILL BE NNW INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A DRY UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY BUT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE MODERATING WEATHER AS THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH RIDGING BUILDING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS... FOLLOWED
BY COOLER BUT NOT REALLY VERY COLD WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATER TIME PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z SATURDAY. SKIES WILL BE SCT-BKN
FROM 4-6 KFT THIS EVENING...THEN SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUD CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY
ALONG WITH SCT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES WILL TURN OVC DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS MAINLY ARND 10 KFT.

WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 5 TO 10 THIS EVENING... BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN NE-SE AT 4-5 KTS ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KOKX 310022
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
822 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY AND TRACKS NORTHEAST. A SECONDARY
LOW FORMING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY WILL INTENSIFY
AND HEAD NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SUNDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS STORM FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF FAST MOVING COLD FRONTS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MOST OF THE INLAND STRATO CU WAS
DISSIPATING. DRIER AIR WAS FLOWING IN ON A NORTHWEST WIND.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AND PVA DIVES ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE GULF STATES...MOVING EAST TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND MOVES QUICKLY
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. DIURNAL SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU
CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO CLEARING OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH DO EXPECT
FEW TO SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL PER MOS
BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE AND WEAK PVA TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WITH SFC
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINAS. MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE
CARVES OUT LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
MAIN TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW LATER
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME SUPPORT ALOFT...AND A MOISTENING
COLUMN DUE TO INCREASING EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW BELOW H8 HPA...EXPECT
LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND NE FLOW. NEAR NORMAL READINGS ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GUIDANCE REMAINS MOSTLY CONSISTENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF A STORM
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. FIRST...LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG AN OFFSHORE FRONT WILL BRING MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN LONG ISLAND/SE CT WITH CAT POP...WITH
LIKELY POP AS FAR BACK AS NYC METRO. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND RAINFALL AMTS DURING THE DAY SAT BETWEEN THE LATEST
RUNS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE LATEST GFS SOONER AND A
LITTLE FARTHER EAST...AND THE ECMWF WETTER AND LATER OUT
EAST...HAVE SMOOTHED OUT THESE DIFFERENCES FOR NOW WITH A GENERAL
ALL DAY EVENT.

FOCUS OF RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST SAT NIGHT...WITH
DECREASING POP AS THIS FIRST LOW LIFTS TO THE NE. PRECIP COULD
BRIEFLY END AS SOME SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS WELL NORTH/WEST. AS A STRONGER LOW FORMS NEAR CAPE
HATTERAS AND THEN TRACKS OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY...ITS RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AS IT FAILS TO PHASE
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO ITS WEST. ITS MORE IMPORTANT IMPACTS WILL
BE AND COOLER CONDS ON SUNDAY...WITH A BRISK N FLOW AS AS THE LOW
INTENSIFIES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AROUND BETWEEN IT
AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY STRATOCU AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS.
HIGHS WILL ONLY BARELY REACH 50 IN NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND...AND
REMAIN IN THE 40S INLAND.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...BUT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM
COMPLETELY DECOUPLING IN MOST PLACES. ASA RESULT STUCK CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE LOWS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND DID NOT UNDERCUT...WITH LOWS
25-30 WELL INLAND...LOWER 30S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND MID 30S FOR NYC.

AFTER ONE MORE COOL DAY ON MON WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S...TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD AS A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE EAST. SHOULD THEN SEE A SERIES OF WEAK...FAST MOVING
COLD FRONTS PASSING THROUGH IN FAST QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...WITH CHANCE
POP FOR RAIN SHOWERS NORTH/WEST OF NYC ON WED...AND THROUGHOUT THE
AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY...WHILE LOW PRESSURE DROPS SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
A SECONDARY COASTAL LOW THEN DEEPENS ON FRIDAY AND TRACKS NE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS BY LATE
FRI AFTERNOON. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS AFTER 00Z SAT WITH THE ONSET
OF -RA.

WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE N OVERNIGHT AND NE ON FRIDAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NGT-SAT NGT...MVFR OR LOWER. PCPN MAINLY RAIN...BUT SNOW MAY
MIX IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR SUN NIGHT. NE-N WINDS 15-20G25-35KT.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. AFT STRATO CU WITH ISOLATED
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. NW WINDS 20-25G30-35KT.
.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 KT HAS ALLOWED FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FT...SO HAVE ADJUSTED WAVE HEIGHTS DOWNWARD UP TO
A FOOT THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AS WIND WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
NORTH AND DIMINISH A FEW KNOTS.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THEN MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...NW WINDS WILL
TURN TOWARD THE N TONIGHT. THE WINDS THEN TURN TO THE NE AND
INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. THESE E/NE WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT...LIKELY TO SCA
THRESHOLDS.

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SEAS BUILD LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
WINDS INCREASE. SCA CONDS ARE LIKELY BY SAT...BUT IT IS STILL
UNCERTAIN WHETHER GALES WILL DEVELOP THAT EARLY DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY OF AN INITIAL LOW PASSING TO THE SE. GALES APPEAR MORE
LIKELY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS AND PASSES TO THE SE...WITH CAA OVER STILL RELATIVELY
MILD WATERS AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

AFTER SOME LINGERING GALES ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS SUNDAY
EVENING...SCA CONDS SHOULD OTHERWISE FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MON FOR MOST WATERS. THEN QUIET CONDS SHOULD RETURN TO ALL WATERS
BY MON NIGHT. INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT COULD BRING
A RETURN OF SCA CONDS TO THE ERN OCEAN WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT-WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A
HALF INCH...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY ACROSS ERN LONG
ISLAND AND SE CT. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...MET/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW








000
FXUS61 KBGM 302352
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
752 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...PERHAPS BRINGING SOME RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES AWAY BY LATER
SUNDAY...DRIER WEATHER...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES...SHOULD
THEN BE THE RULE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
225 PM THU UPDATE... PLUME OF LAKE-EFFECT -SHRA CONTINUES LATE
THIS AFTN FROM ROUGHLY KSYR SEWD TOWARDS ONEONTA. WE STILL EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN...THEN ULTIMATELY DSIPT BY THIS EVE.

HOWEVER...THE THICK MASS OF SC CLDS OVER CNY/NE PA WILL VERY
LIKELY HANG IN LONGER...AS UPSLOPE NWLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO
TNT...AND MOISTURE STAYS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ALOFT. MOST MODEL RH PROFILES BEGIN TO DRY OUT THE BLYR AFTER
03-06Z...SPCLY OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH WE DO LOSE
THE LAKE CONNECTION/UPSLOPE COMPONENT OVERNIGHT...THE INVERSION
WILL REMAIN. OUR GUT FEELING IS THAT WE`LL GRADUALLY LOSE THE SC
CLDS ACRS NE PA AND PTNS OF NY`S SRN TIER...WITH THE NRN ZNS
KEEPING THE LWR CLDS A BIT LONGER.

TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY TNT...DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER. FOR
NOW...WE HAVE LOWS RANGING IN THE 30S (WITH LWR 30S IN THE
POCONOS/CATSKILLS WHERE CLEARING IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR...AND UPR
30S TO NEAR 40 IN THE LAKE PLAIN CNTYS...WHERE THICKER CLDS SHOULD
PREVAIL FOR A LONGER PD OF TIME).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
235 PM THU UPDATE... THE WELL ADVERTISED DEEPENING TROUGH PATN
OVER THE ERN STATES IS STILL EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE THIS PD.

ALTHOUGH SOME SMALL MODEL TO MODEL DIFFS REMAIN...LARGE-SCALE
AGREEMENT IS PRETTY GOOD THAT A SRN BRANCH OF THIS TROUGH WILL
SPLIT...AND THEN CLOSE OFF OVER VA/NC BY SAT...ULTIMATELY
AMPLIFYING OFFSHORE...AND SPINNING UP A ROBUST SFC CYCLONE WELL OFF
THE COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...THE NRN BRANCH OF THE TROUGH WILL LAG
A BIT BEHIND...AND CROSS NY/PA SAT NGT/EARLY SUN.

THE SRN BRANCH TROUGH AND DEEP OCEANIC STORM STILL APPEAR TO BE
TOO FAR REMOVED TO OUR E AND S TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON OUR FCST
AREA. HOWEVER...THE NRN BRANCH TROUGH SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SCTD
RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FRI NGT...SAT...AND SAT NGT...AS INSTAB/FORCED LIFT ACTS
UPON THE MOISTURE SUPPLY IN PLACE. THERMAL PROFILES LOOK TOO WARM
FOR ANYTHING BUT LIQUID PTYPE FRI NGT AND SAT...HOWEVER BY SAT
NGT/SUN MRNG...WE SHOULD TREND TWDS SNOW.

DEPENDING ON JUST HOW QUICKLY THE MID-LVLS DRY OUT SAT NGT/EARLY
SUN...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR FINGER LAKES SNOW
BAND DVLPMT...GIVEN A DEEP NRLY FLOW PATN...SUFFICIENT LAKE/AIR
TEMP DIFFS...AND POTENTIALLY ADEQUATE MOISTURE SUPPLY. ONCE
AGN...THE EXACT BLYR FLOW ORIENTATION AND LONGEVITY OF DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE KEY FACTORS IN THIS REGARD.

FOR NOW...WE`LL CONTINUE WITH CHC/SCTD POP`S FRI NGT-SAT NGT FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH THINGS DRYING OUT BY SUN AFTN. TEMPS WILL
BE CHILLY THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S SAT...AND IN
THE 30S-LWR 40S SUN. READINGS SAT NGT SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPR
20S-LWR 30S IN MOST LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1 PM THU UPDATE... DEEP UPR-LVL TROUGH ALG THE EAST COAST AT THE
START OF THE PD...WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING AWAY TO THE NE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ITS WAKE...SFC RIDGING...AND ALSO S/WV RIDGING
ALOFT...WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY WX AND MODERATING TEMPS MON-TUE.

OUR NEXT SHOT AT PCPN WILL LIKELY COME TWDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WHEN AN UPR-LVL TROUGH WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE W...ALG WITH A SFC FRONTAL
COMPLEX. AS A RESULT...WE`VE INSERTED SCTD SHWRS STARTING LATER
TUE NGT...THEN PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST WED.

AS ALLUDED TO ABV...READINGS WILL BE ON THE UPSWING NEXT WEEK...WITH
DAILY HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS AN SC DECK IS BREAKING UP TO SOME EXTENT AS A SMALL HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO NY AND PA. CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM THAT CIGS WILL REMAIN ABV MVFR. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE
WONT SEE IFR AT ANY OF OUR TAF SITES TONIGHT. BEST CHC FOR BRIEF MVFR
WILL BE AT BGM AND ITH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. THEN FOR FRI
EXPECT MAINLY MID TO HI CLDS. SOME LOWER CLDS WILL POSSIBLY WORK
INTO KAVP LATE IN THE PD.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT-SAT NGT...OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN-TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DJN







000
FXUS61 KBUF 302344
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
744 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND SATURDAY...USHERING IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG
WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIQUID...ALTHOUGH A FEW WET
SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARMING TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A WEALTH OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN FINGER
LAKES WHERE A SUCKER HOLE WILL GIVE A FEW HOURS OF PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BEFORE FILLING BACK IN. IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
EVENING. NOTE THAT BOTH THE KBUF AND KTYX RADARS SHOW WIDESPREAD
WEAK RADAR RETURNS SPREADING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT THESE ARE NOT
METEOROLOGICAL. IT APPEARS TO BE BIOLOGICAL BASED ON DUAL-POL RADAR
CHARACTERISTICS...PROBABLY MIGRATING WATERFOWL.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE SET TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA IS PUSHING SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE DEVELOPING SURFACE WARM
FRONT WITH THIS LOW WILL BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT MAINLY FOR AREAS NEAR LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS
THE ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT DEVELOPS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
PROVINCE.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SPLITTING SOLUTION...WITH THE MAIN
VORTICITY MAX DIGGING INTO THE CAROLINAS...LEAVING OUR AREA UNDER
WEAK / SPLIT FLOW ALOFT. WE WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
FORECAST AREA WITH DECENT MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THE WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AS THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD. OUR BEST CHANCE OF MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NY. WHILE QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT DUE TO THE LACK OF WELL-DEFINED FORCING...THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LESS RAINFALL
TO THE EAST...ESPECIALLY DROPPING OFF EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
THE ROCHESTER AREA.

TEMPERATURE VARIANCE WILL BE VERY LOW BETWEEN TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AS CLOUD COVER AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT CLOUD COVER AND
INCREASING PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH DURING THE DAY. THE DIURNAL RANGE
IN TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE AROUND 10 DEGREES...WITH LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND MID 30S IN THE
INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGION...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND MID 40S ON THE
HILLS FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL BE A WET START TO THE WEEKEND...AT LEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK AND PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AS THE AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO IN THE
WAKE OF A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CUTTING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. OROGRAPHIC LIFT
WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE APPROACH OF A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED LIFT. WHILE TEMPERATURES ALOFT...IN THE -2C TO -4C
RANGE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO ADD LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE MIX...IT WILL NOT LIKELY BE COLD ENOUGH TO FACILITATE A
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW. RATHER...WESTERN NEW YORK CAN EXPECT A
GENERAL LIGHT RAINFALL THROUGH THE NIGHT. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY UNDER
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW...AND AS SUCH ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED
IN SCOPE AND MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RELATIVELY
MILD MARITIME AIR FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THAT WILL KEEP LOWS FROM
DROPPING OUT OF THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH AREAS ALONG THE LAKE
PLAINS LIKELY STAYING IN THE LOWER 40S.

THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH THE FOCUS OF
PRECIPITATION SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EAST TO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PRESENT THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AS THE COMBINATION OF
NIGHTFALL AND THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE FORECAST AIR. HOWEVER THE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WILL BE THE DRY AIR ALOFT THAT WILL BE ACCOMPANYING THIS
COLD PUSH. AS THE AIR IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DRIES OUT...THERE
IS A POTENTIAL THAT WE COULD SEE ANY UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS PETER OUT INTO PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR POSSIBLY JUST
LAKE-INDUCED STRATUS WITH NO PRECIPITATION AT ALL.

ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD FIZZLE OUT SUNDAY MORNING
AS INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL OVERCOME ANY LAKE
ENHANCEMENT...THOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO
GO AROUND ON WHAT WILL OTHERWISE BE A DRY AND CHILLY DAY WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE LAKES AND
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY WILL LIKELY
STAY LOCKED IN THE UPPER 30S. WE CAN THEN EXPECT ONE MORE NIGHT OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE NEXT
WEEK

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A COOL AND SHOWER WEEKEND...WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
WILL TRANSITION TO A DRIER AND MORE MILD REGIME AS WE MOVE INTO THE
NEW WEEK. THIS WILL BE COURTESY OF STEEP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL
BE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. FLOW BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST
WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...PUSHING
TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE THE 50 DEGREE MARK MONDAY AND BY TUESDAY
MANY AREAS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS A 60 DEGREE
READING OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE TYPICALLY WARMER SPOTS
OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE FINGER LAKES. ALTHOUGH THE
WARM ADVECTION WILL PUT AN END TO ANY LAKE EFFECT CLOUD
COVER...THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO GO
AROUND MONDAY AND TUESDAY COURTESY OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.

AFTER A DRY START TO THE WEEK...WE WILL SEE SHOWERS CREEP BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
LOW LIFT FROM WESTERN ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. AS THE LOW
TRACKS INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC...IT WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
ARE INDICATING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE FAVORABLE FRONTOGENETIC AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING
AND RETURN FLOW SUPPLYING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
LOWER LAKES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS NOW SHOW SOME DIVERGENCE IN SOLUTIONS
REGARDING THE SPEED OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
THE GFS BRINGS A FRONTAL WAVE ACROSS NEW YORK THAT SLOWS UP THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF SPEEDS THE FRONT THROUGH WITH A
REINFORCING SHORTWAVE BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES...WILL JUST COVER THE PERIOD WITH LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING AND KEEP TEMERPATURES RIGHT AROUND
CLIMATOLOGY AS THE REGION WILL LIKELY BE AWASH IN A MILD PACIFIC
AIRMASS THAT WILL BE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A DECK OF CLOUDS IN THE
3500-5000 FOOT RANGE. OVERNIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE
SOMEWHAT AS AN ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE LOWER LAKES.
THE ADDED WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING
SHOULD SUPPORT CIGS LOWERING INTO THE MVFR RANGE IN MANY AREAS. A
FEW LIGHT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP CLOSE TO LAKE ERIE AND
ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO WEAK WARM ADVECTION...BUT VSBY
SHOULD REMAIN VFR GIVEN THE LIGHT AND SCATTERED NATURE OF THIS
ACTIVITY.

ON FRIDAY A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY MAINLY NEAR LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO. MVFR
CIGS EARLY SHOULD TREND TO MAINLY VFR BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH MVFR LINGERING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DURING
THE AFTERNOON WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ONTARIO PROVINCE AND LAKE ERIE. CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT FROM AN
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD PRODUCE MORE NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NY. EXPECT CIGS TO DROP
TO MVFR AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS...WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARD EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH MVFR DETERIORATING TO IFR.
SATURDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR WITH SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CHOPPY WAVE ACTION ON THE EAST
HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS BOTH LAKE ERIE
AND LAKE ONTARIO...BEFORE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH RELATIVELY FLAT WAVE ACTION.

STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH WINDS OVER 20KTS COMMON ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. WAVE
HEIGHTS SHOULD INCREASE TO 3 TO 6 FEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN
LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THUS HAVE ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY
         FOR LOZ030-042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK






000
FXUS61 KBTV 302321
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
721 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER
WITH LIGHT WINDS...BUT A CONTINUATION OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.
MEANWHILE...A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRANSLATE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND RESULT
IN A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT THURSDAY...INHERITED FORECAST GENERALLY HOLDING
UP WELL EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS
AND DEWPOINTS NECESSARY WITH THIS UPDATE.

INFRARED SATELLITE REVEALS PERSISTENT STRATUS/STRATOCU
PARTICULARLY IN VICINITY OF THE MOUNTAINS. WITH BRIEF
EXCEPTIONS...THESE CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG TOUGH THIS EVENING GIVEN
COMBINATION OF BLOCKED/SUBCRITICAL FLOW EVIDENT IN PROGGED FROUDE
NUMBERS AMD WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GREAT LAKES
IN MEAN 925-700 MB WESTERLY FLOW REGIME. THEREFORE...OPTED TO
RAISE HOURLY TEMPS UP A BIT AND LOWS UP 2-5 DEGREES WITH EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER. DEWPOINTS ALSO LOOKED A BIT TOO DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND ADJUSTED THESE UPWARD BY A COUPLE DEGREES AS WELL. EXPECTING
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...THOUGH A FEW SPOTS COULD
SEE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM/`DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT THURSDAY...DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. NOT MUCH INFLUENCE FROM THIS SYSTEM
ON FRIDAY...WITH JUST A WEAK SURFACE LOW REFLECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS OHIO WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH NNEWD ACROSS SERN
ONTARIO TO NEAR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. MAIN INFLUENCE WILL BE
INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION...ALONG WITH
STRATUS LAYER WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE AS WELL. ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO A FEW RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY ALONG/NEAR THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. THUS...SHOWING JUST
20-30 POPS ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. P-GRADIENT QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...SO
WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE LIGHT N-NE MOST LOCATIONS...AND LOCALLY
5-10 MPH ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR
40S...EXCEPT LOW 50S FOR THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE WITH UPPER LOW DIGGING TO OUR S-SW DURING
FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOKING FOR A CONTINUATION OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS
IN THE MID-UPR 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

QUESTION FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MID-
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PHASING WITHIN THE BROADER UPPER TROUGH
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. MODELS VARY ON
EXTENT OF PHASING AND ULTIMATE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN LOW
DEVELOPMENT...WITH CLOSED SFC-700MB LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
BY EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z NAM IS GENERALLY DRY ACROSS OUR
REGION WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM DEVELOPING FURTHER OUT TO SEA.
SIMILARLY...THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N 70W BENCHMARKS WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS PREVIOUS IDEA WITH A NUDGE TOWARD THE
12Z GFS. THIS MEANS SOME LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COOL ACROSS THE REGION. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
EASTERN/NERN VERMONT WITH FRINGE INFLUENCE OF LOW IN THE GULF OF
MAINE. LOOKING AT JUST A DUSTING TO AN 1" OR SO ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOCALLY 1-3" ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL/NRN GREENS INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HIGHS SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE
40S WITH LOWER 30S EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY...IN GENERAL, THE 12Z SUITE OF MODELS
DON`T OFFER ANY LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN
AND ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO ONE ANOTHER. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES, THOUGH SUBTLE, THAT COULD EFFECT THE ACTUAL WEATHER
WE OBSERVE (AND THUS THE FORECAST CHALLENGE). WE ARE STILL LOOKING
AT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED POWERFUL STORM TO MOVE BY
FAR ENOUGH OFF THE COAST TO AVOID ANY SIGNIFICANT DIRECT IMPACT ON
THE REGION, BUT WE`LL NOTICE A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER (COLD,
BREEZY, CHANCES FOR HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY). THE
PATTERN IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SO BY TUESDAY WE RETURN TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WITH THE WEATHER TURNING MILDER, THOUGH REMAINING UNSETTLED.
DON`T SEE A LOT OF SUNNY WEATHER IN OUR FUTURE. A FEW MORE DETAILS
FOLLOW...

SUNDAY: 12Z GFS HAS COME IN A SMIDGE WEST OF PREVIOUS RUNS AND
KEEP A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION, ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN HALF. THE 12Z EURO IS A LITTLE
WEAKER WITH THE STORM, AND DOES NOT HAVE AS MUCH MOISTURE IN PLACE
FOR US. TAKEN AT FACE VALUE, THE GFS DOES INDICATE ABOUT
0.05-0.10" MELTED EQUIVALENT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN VERMONT AND INTO THE `DACKS. THE EURO IS DRY. THINK THE
OVERALL FORECAST IDEA WE`VE HAD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THERE TO
BE SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN/EASTERN VERMONT LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER GIVEN THE 12Z GFS,
DID DECIDE TO INTRODUCE SOME SMALL POPS INTO THE `DACKS AS WELL.
NET RESULT, HAVE SOME 10-30% POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY,
HIGHEST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION, BUT PERHAPS ENOUGH TO WRING OUT 1" OR SO
AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500FT DURING THE DAY. A COUPLE OF THINGS WE
ARE CONFIDENT OF IS A STRONG/GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND (PERHAPS
30MPH+ AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS VERMONT) AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT LEAST -5C, UNDER STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION, TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. THINK EVEN FOR BTV, WE WILL FAIL TO HIT 40F.

SUNDAY NIGHT: IF WE HAVEN`T CLEARED OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WE
WILL BY EVENING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH, BUT WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE (DEW POINTS INTO THE TEENS), TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL
PRETTY QUICK. LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST SUB-30F TEMPERATURES FOR
BURLINGTON. LOWS INTO THE UPPER 10S IN THE COLDEST SPOTS, WITH
QUITE A FEW LOW 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

MONDAY: LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET. COULD BE A FAIRLY SUNNY DAY AS WEAK
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WENT WITH BLEND OF GUIDANCE BUT
ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S.

TUESDAY: WARM FRONT STARTS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS ARE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS. SAW NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THE CONSISTENT MODELS, SO
IDEA OF CHANCE LEVEL POPS, HIGHEST IN NORTHERN SECTIONS WHERE THE
MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST. TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND
WE`LL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (PUSHING 50F IN THE VALLEYS)

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ENSURE MILD
TEMPERATURES BOTH DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT, HOWEVER IT APPEARS A
FRONT WILL GET STRUNG OUT NEAR/ACROSS THE REGION AND BE A FOCUS
FOR ON-AND-OFF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BOTH DAYS. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE RIBBON OF
MOISTURE, BUT ENOUGH SIMILARITY TO KEEP WITH 50-60% CHANCES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
HIGHS, BUT WITH THE CLOUDS, IT WILL STAY WARMER THAN NORMAL AT
NIGHT (50S IN THE DAY, 40S AT NIGHT).

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL EXIST OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THE CLOUDS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE VFR
CATEGORY. SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK AFTER 20Z WHERE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...BUT HAVE NO OBSTRUCTION TO VISIBILITY. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AT SPEEDS UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
00Z SAT-18Z SUN -- WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TURNING TO A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
18Z SUN-12Z TUES -- VFR. SURFACE WINDS MAY BE GUSTING OVER 20KTS
ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT 12Z TUES ONWARD -- MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A FEW
SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH




000
FXUS61 KALY 302313
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
713 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 600 PM EDT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS COVERING THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES IN THE VALLEYS. A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES ARE PERSISTING
OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THOSE WILL BE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. CLEARING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE VALLEYS THIS EVENING
WITH AT LEAST SOME CLEARING ELSEWHERE AS A SMALL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO MONITOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE A
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL
DIVE SOUTH AND CLOSE-OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
VIRGINIA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT THIS LOW WILL TRACK WELL TO
THE EAST OF OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE FAR
EAST WHERE SOME STEADIER PRECIPITATION MIGHT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
OR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE SHIELD OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL GET AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL MASS... WHILE THE
NAM IS A BIT FARTHER EAST.

OTHERWISE THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL BE
COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HAVE GONE WITH POP VALUES MAINLY NEAR 30 PERCENT FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THIS. EXPECT LOWEST POPS TO BE
IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE WEST OF THE CATSKILLS AS THE FLOW WILL BE NNW INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A DRY UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY BUT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE MODERATING WEATHER AS THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH RIDGING BUILDING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS... FOLLOWED
BY COOLER BUT NOT REALLY VERY COLD WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATER TIME PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z SATURDAY. SKIES WILL BE SCT-BKN
FROM 4-6 KFT THIS EVENING...THEN SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUD CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY
ALONG WITH SCT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES WILL TURN OVC DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS MAINLY ARND 10 KFT.

WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 5 TO 10 THIS EVENING... BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN NE-SE AT 4-5 KTS ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KBTV 302300
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
700 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER
WITH LIGHT WINDS...BUT A CONTINUATION OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.
MEANWHILE...A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRANSLATE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND RESULT
IN A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT THURSDAY...FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED AS WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE CRESTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STILL DEALING WITH
PREVAILING STRATUS/STRATOCU DECK...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS FROM NAM/RAP SOUNDING PROFILES
THAT CLOUD LAYER WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVERNIGHT WITH JUST A FEW
BREAKS. TRENDED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS ON OVERNIGHT
TEMPS...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 30S...AND A FEW LOWER 30S
ACROSS FAR NERN VT AND ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. IF A FEW
ADDITIONAL BREAKS DEVELOP IN THE CLOUD COVER...SOME LOCALIZED
READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACK REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 MPH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY TAPER OFF TO 5 MPH OR LESS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT THURSDAY...DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. NOT MUCH INFLUENCE FROM THIS SYSTEM
ON FRIDAY...WITH JUST A WEAK SURFACE LOW REFLECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS OHIO WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH NNEWD ACROSS SERN
ONTARIO TO NEAR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. MAIN INFLUENCE WILL BE
INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION...ALONG WITH
STRATUS LAYER WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE AS WELL. ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO A FEW RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY ALONG/NEAR THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. THUS...SHOWING JUST
20-30 POPS ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. P-GRADIENT QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...SO
WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE LIGHT N-NE MOST LOCATIONS...AND LOCALLY
5-10 MPH ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR
40S...EXCEPT LOW 50S FOR THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE WITH UPPER LOW DIGGING TO OUR S-SW DURING
FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOKING FOR A CONTINUATION OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS
IN THE MID-UPR 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

QUESTION FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MID-
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PHASING WITHIN THE BROADER UPPER TROUGH
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. MODELS VARY ON
EXTENT OF PHASING AND ULTIMATE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN LOW
DEVELOPMENT...WITH CLOSED SFC-700MB LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
BY EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z NAM IS GENERALLY DRY ACROSS OUR
REGION WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM DEVELOPING FURTHER OUT TO SEA.
SIMILARLY...THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N 70W BENCHMARKS WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS PREVIOUS IDEA WITH A NUDGE TOWARD THE
12Z GFS. THIS MEANS SOME LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COOL ACROSS THE REGION. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
EASTERN/NERN VERMONT WITH FRINGE INFLUENCE OF LOW IN THE GULF OF
MAINE. LOOKING AT JUST A DUSTING TO AN 1" OR SO ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOCALLY 1-3" ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL/NRN GREENS INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HIGHS SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE
40S WITH LOWER 30S EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY...IN GENERAL, THE 12Z SUITE OF MODELS
DON`T OFFER ANY LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN
AND ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO ONE ANOTHER. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES, THOUGH SUBTLE, THAT COULD EFFECT THE ACTUAL WEATHER
WE OBSERVE (AND THUS THE FORECAST CHALLENGE). WE ARE STILL LOOKING
AT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED POWERFUL STORM TO MOVE BY
FAR ENOUGH OFF THE COAST TO AVOID ANY SIGNIFICANT DIRECT IMPACT ON
THE REGION, BUT WE`LL NOTICE A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER (COLD,
BREEZY, CHANCES FOR HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY). THE
PATTERN IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SO BY TUESDAY WE RETURN TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WITH THE WEATHER TURNING MILDER, THOUGH REMAINING UNSETTLED.
DON`T SEE A LOT OF SUNNY WEATHER IN OUR FUTURE. A FEW MORE DETAILS
FOLLOW...

SUNDAY: 12Z GFS HAS COME IN A SMIDGE WEST OF PREVIOUS RUNS AND
KEEP A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION, ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN HALF. THE 12Z EURO IS A LITTLE
WEAKER WITH THE STORM, AND DOES NOT HAVE AS MUCH MOISTURE IN PLACE
FOR US. TAKEN AT FACE VALUE, THE GFS DOES INDICATE ABOUT
0.05-0.10" MELTED EQUIVALENT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN VERMONT AND INTO THE `DACKS. THE EURO IS DRY. THINK THE
OVERALL FORECAST IDEA WE`VE HAD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THERE TO
BE SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN/EASTERN VERMONT LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER GIVEN THE 12Z GFS,
DID DECIDE TO INTRODUCE SOME SMALL POPS INTO THE `DACKS AS WELL.
NET RESULT, HAVE SOME 10-30% POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY,
HIGHEST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION, BUT PERHAPS ENOUGH TO WRING OUT 1" OR SO
AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500FT DURING THE DAY. A COUPLE OF THINGS WE
ARE CONFIDENT OF IS A STRONG/GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND (PERHAPS
30MPH+ AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS VERMONT) AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT LEAST -5C, UNDER STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION, TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. THINK EVEN FOR BTV, WE WILL FAIL TO HIT 40F.

SUNDAY NIGHT: IF WE HAVEN`T CLEARED OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WE
WILL BY EVENING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH, BUT WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE (DEW POINTS INTO THE TEENS), TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL
PRETTY QUICK. LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST SUB-30F TEMPERATURES FOR
BURLINGTON. LOWS INTO THE UPPER 10S IN THE COLDEST SPOTS, WITH
QUITE A FEW LOW 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

MONDAY: LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET. COULD BE A FAIRLY SUNNY DAY AS WEAK
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WENT WITH BLEND OF GUIDANCE BUT
ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S.

TUESDAY: WARM FRONT STARTS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS ARE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS. SAW NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THE CONSISTENT MODELS, SO
IDEA OF CHANCE LEVEL POPS, HIGHEST IN NORTHERN SECTIONS WHERE THE
MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST. TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND
WE`LL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (PUSHING 50F IN THE VALLEYS)

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ENSURE MILD
TEMPERATURES BOTH DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT, HOWEVER IT APPEARS A
FRONT WILL GET STRUNG OUT NEAR/ACROSS THE REGION AND BE A FOCUS
FOR ON-AND-OFF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BOTH DAYS. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE RIBBON OF
MOISTURE, BUT ENOUGH SIMILARITY TO KEEP WITH 50-60% CHANCES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
HIGHS, BUT WITH THE CLOUDS, IT WILL STAY WARMER THAN NORMAL AT
NIGHT (50S IN THE DAY, 40S AT NIGHT).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL EXIST OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THE CLOUDS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE VFR
CATEGORY. SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK AFTER 20Z WHERE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...BUT HAVE NO OBSTRUCTION TO VISIBILITY. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AT SPEEDS UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
00Z SAT-18Z SUN -- WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TURNING TO A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
18Z SUN-12Z TUES -- VFR. SURFACE WINDS MAY BE GUSTING OVER 20KTS
ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT 12Z TUES ONWARD -- MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A FEW
SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH




000
FXUS61 KOKX 302237
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
637 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY AND TRACKS NORTHEAST. A SECONDARY
LOW FORMING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY WILL INTENSIFY
AND HEAD NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SUNDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS STORM FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF FAST MOVING COLD FRONTS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MOST OF THE INLAND STRATO CU WAS
DISSIPATING. DRIER AIR WAS FLOWING IN ON A NORTHWEST WIND.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AND PVA DIVES ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE GULF STATES...MOVING EAST TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND MOVES QUICKLY
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. DIURNAL SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU
CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO CLEARING OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH DO EXPECT
FEW TO SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL PER MOS
BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE AND WEAK PVA TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WITH SFC
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINAS. MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE
CARVES OUT LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
MAIN TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW LATER
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME SUPPORT ALOFT...AND A MOISTENING
COLUMN DUE TO INCREASING EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW BELOW H8 HPA...EXPECT
LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND NE FLOW. NEAR NORMAL READINGS ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GUIDANCE REMAINS MOSTLY CONSISTENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF A STORM
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. FIRST...LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG AN OFFSHORE FRONT WILL BRING MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN LONG ISLAND/SE CT WITH CAT POP...WITH
LIKELY POP AS FAR BACK AS NYC METRO. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND RAINFALL AMTS DURING THE DAY SAT BETWEEN THE LATEST
RUNS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE LATEST GFS SOONER AND A
LITTLE FARTHER EAST...AND THE ECMWF WETTER AND LATER OUT
EAST...HAVE SMOOTHED OUT THESE DIFFERENCES FOR NOW WITH A GENERAL
ALL DAY EVENT.

FOCUS OF RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST SAT NIGHT...WITH
DECREASING POP AS THIS FIRST LOW LIFTS TO THE NE. PRECIP COULD
BRIEFLY END AS SOME SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS WELL NORTH/WEST. AS A STRONGER LOW FORMS NEAR CAPE
HATTERAS AND THEN TRACKS OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY...ITS RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AS IT FAILS TO PHASE
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO ITS WEST. ITS MORE IMPORTANT IMPACTS WILL
BE AND COOLER CONDS ON SUNDAY...WITH A BRISK N FLOW AS AS THE LOW
INTENSIFIES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AROUND BETWEEN IT
AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY STRATOCU AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS.
HIGHS WILL ONLY BARELY REACH 50 IN NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND...AND
REMAIN IN THE 40S INLAND.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...BUT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM
COMPLETELY DECOUPLING IN MOST PLACES. ASA RESULT STUCK CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE LOWS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND DID NOT UNDERCUT...WITH LOWS
25-30 WELL INLAND...LOWER 30S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND MID 30S FOR NYC.

AFTER ONE MORE COOL DAY ON MON WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S...TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD AS A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE EAST. SHOULD THEN SEE A SERIES OF WEAK...FAST MOVING
COLD FRONTS PASSING THROUGH IN FAST QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...WITH CHANCE
POP FOR RAIN SHOWERS NORTH/WEST OF NYC ON WED...AND THROUGHOUT THE
AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HI PRES SLIDES NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH LOW PRES BEGINS TO DEVELOP S OF THE REGION FRI.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD. BKN 4-5 KFT STRATO CU THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING SCT TONIGHT. INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR BKN
STRATO-CU 3.5-4 KFT TO DEVELOP FRI MORNING. CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO
MVFR LATE FRI/FRI EVE ACROSS METRO TERMINALS WITH -RA DEVELOPING.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERALLY RUN BETWEEN 310 AND 350 DEGREES
MAGNETIC INTO THIS EVENING. DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL OCCASIONALLY
INCREASE THIS RANGE OF WIND DIRECTION VARIABILITY BY 20 DEGREES ON
EITHER SIDE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH AROUND 22Z FOR
METRO TERMINALS. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE N OVERNIGHT AND NE ON
FRIDAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT WILL OCCASIONALLY VARY BETWEEN 290 AND 360
MAGNETIC WITH GUSTS TO 20KT THROUGH AROUND 22Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT WILL OCCASIONALLY VARY BETWEEN 290 AND 360
MAGNETIC WITH GUSTS TO 20KT THROUGH AROUND 22Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT WILL OCCASIONALLY VARY BETWEEN 290 AND 360
MAGNETIC WITH GUSTS TO 20KT THROUGH AROUND 22Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI AFT...CIGS LOWER THRU THE AFT WITH MVFR POSSIBLE LATE.
.FRI NGT-SAT NGT...MVFR OR LOWER. PCPN MAINLY RAIN...BUT SNOW MAY
MIX IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR SUN NIGHT. NE-N WINDS 15-20G25-35KT.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. AFT STRATO-CU WITH ISOLATED
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. NW WINDS 20-25G30-35KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 5-10 KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 KT HAS ALLOWED FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FT...SO HAVE ADJUSTED WAVE HEIGHTS DOWNWARD UP TO
A FOOT THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AS WIND WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
NORTH AND DIMINISH A FEW KNOTS.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THEN MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...NW WINDS WILL
TURN TOWARD THE N TONIGHT. THE WINDS THEN TURN TO THE NE AND
INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. THESE E/NE WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT...LIKELY TO SCA
THRESHOLDS.

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SEAS BUILD LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
WINDS INCREASE. SCA CONDS ARE LIKELY BY SAT...BUT IT IS STILL
UNCERTAIN WHETHER GALES WILL DEVELOP THAT EARLY DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY OF AN INITIAL LOW PASSING TO THE SE. GALES APPEAR MORE
LIKELY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS AND PASSES TO THE SE...WITH CAA OVER STILL RELATIVELY
MILD WATERS AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

AFTER SOME LINGERING GALES ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS SUNDAY
EVENING...SCA CONDS SHOULD OTHERWISE FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MON FOR MOST WATERS. THEN QUIET CONDS SHOULD RETURN TO ALL WATERS
BY MON NIGHT. INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT COULD BRING
A RETURN OF SCA CONDS TO THE ERN OCEAN WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT-WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A
HALF INCH...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY ACROSS ERN LONG
ISLAND AND SE CT. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...MET/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW








000
FXUS61 KALY 302201
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
601 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 600 PM EDT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS COVERING THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES IN THE VALLEYS. A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES ARE PERSISTING
OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THOSE WILL BE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. CLEARING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE VALLEYS THIS EVENING
WITH AT LEAST SOME CLEARING ELSEWHERE AS A SMALL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO MONITOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE A
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL
DIVE SOUTH AND CLOSE-OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
VIRGINIA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT THIS LOW WILL TRACK WELL TO
THE EAST OF OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE FAR
EAST WHERE SOME STEADIER PRECIPITATION MIGHT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
OR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE SHIELD OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL GET AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL MASS... WHILE THE
NAM IS A BIT FARTHER EAST.

OTHERWISE THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL BE
COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HAVE GONE WITH POP VALUES MAINLY NEAR 30 PERCENT FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THIS. EXPECT LOWEST POPS TO BE
IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE WEST OF THE CATSKILLS AS THE FLOW WILL BE NNW INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A DRY UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY BUT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE MODERATING WEATHER AS THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH RIDGING BUILDING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS... FOLLOWED
BY COOLER BUT NOT REALLY VERY COLD WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATER TIME PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. SKIES
WILL BE BKN- 0VC WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 4-6 KFT THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH SCT STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS
TO 20 KTS... BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KALY 302201
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
601 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 600 PM EDT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS COVERING THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES IN THE VALLEYS. A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES ARE PERSISTING
OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THOSE WILL BE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. CLEARING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE VALLEYS THIS EVENING
WITH AT LEAST SOME CLEARING ELSEWHERE AS A SMALL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO MONITOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE A
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL
DIVE SOUTH AND CLOSE-OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
VIRGINIA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT THIS LOW WILL TRACK WELL TO
THE EAST OF OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE FAR
EAST WHERE SOME STEADIER PRECIPITATION MIGHT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
OR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE SHIELD OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL GET AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL MASS... WHILE THE
NAM IS A BIT FARTHER EAST.

OTHERWISE THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL BE
COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HAVE GONE WITH POP VALUES MAINLY NEAR 30 PERCENT FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THIS. EXPECT LOWEST POPS TO BE
IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE WEST OF THE CATSKILLS AS THE FLOW WILL BE NNW INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A DRY UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY BUT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE MODERATING WEATHER AS THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH RIDGING BUILDING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS... FOLLOWED
BY COOLER BUT NOT REALLY VERY COLD WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATER TIME PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. SKIES
WILL BE BKN- 0VC WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 4-6 KFT THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH SCT STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS
TO 20 KTS... BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KOKX 302013
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
413 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY AND TRACKS NORTHEAST. A SECONDARY
LOW FORMING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY WILL INTENSIFY
AND HEAD NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SUNDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS STORM FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF FAST MOVING COLD FRONTS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AND PVA DIVES ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE GULF STATES...MOVING EAST TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND MOVES QUICKLY
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. DIURNAL SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU
CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO CLEARING OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH DO EXPECT
FEW TO SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL PER MOS
BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE AND WEAK PVA TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WITH SFC
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINAS. MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE
CARVES OUT LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
MAIN TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW LATER
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME SUPPORT ALOFT...AND A MOISTENING
COLUMN DUE TO INCREASING EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW BELOW H8 HPA...EXPECT
LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND NE FLOW. NEAR NORMAL READINGS ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GUIDANCE REMAINS MOSTLY CONSISTENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF A STORM
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. FIRST...LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG AN OFFSHORE FRONT WILL BRING MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN LONG ISLAND/SE CT WITH CAT POP...WITH
LIKELY POP AS FAR BACK AS NYC METRO. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND RAINFALL AMTS DURING THE DAY SAT BETWEEN THE LATEST
RUNS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE LATEST GFS SOONER AND A
LITTLE FARTHER EAST...AND THE ECMWF WETTER AND LATER OUT
EAST...HAVE SMOOTHED OUT THESE DIFFERENCES FOR NOW WITH A GENERAL
ALL DAY EVENT.

FOCUS OF RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST SAT NIGHT...WITH
DECREASING POP AS THIS FIRST LOW LIFTS TO THE NE. PRECIP COULD
BRIEFLY END AS SOME SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS WELL NORTH/WEST. AS A STRONGER LOW FORMS NEAR CAPE
HATTERAS AND THEN TRACKS OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY...ITS RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AS IT FAILS TO PHASE
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO ITS WEST. ITS MORE IMPORTANT IMPACTS WILL
BE AND COOLER CONDS ON SUNDAY...WITH A BRISK N FLOW AS AS THE LOW
INTENSIFIES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AROUND BETWEEN IT
AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY STRATOCU AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS.
HIGHS WILL ONLY BARELY REACH 50 IN NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND...AND
REMAIN IN THE 40S INLAND.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...BUT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM
COMPLETELY DECOUPLING IN MOST PLACES. ASA RESULT STUCK CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE LOWS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND DID NOT UNDERCUT...WITH LOWS
25-30 WELL INLAND...LOWER 30S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND MID 30S FOR NYC.

AFTER ONE MORE COOL DAY ON MON WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S...TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD AS A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE EAST. SHOULD THEN SEE A SERIES OF WEAK...FAST MOVING
COLD FRONTS PASSING THROUGH IN FAST QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...WITH CHANCE
POP FOR RAIN SHOWERS NORTH/WEST OF NYC ON WED...AND THROUGHOUT THE
AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HI PRES SLIDES NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH LOW PRES BEGINS TO DEVELOP S OF THE REGION FRI.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD. BKN 4-5 KFT STRATO CU THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING SCT TONIGHT. INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR BKN
STRATO-CU 3.5-4 KFT TO DEVELOP FRI MORNING. CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO
MVFR LATE FRI/FRI EVE ACROSS METRO TERMINALS WITH -RA DEVELOPING.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERALLY RUN BETWEEN 310 AND 350 DEGREES
MAGNETIC INTO THIS EVENING. DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL OCCASIONALLY
INCREASE THIS RANGE OF WIND DIRECTION VARIABILITY BY 20 DEGREES ON
EITHER SIDE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH AROUND 22Z FOR
METRO TERMINALS. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE N OVERNIGHT AND NE ON
FRIDAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT WILL OCCASIONALLY VARY BETWEEN 290 AND 360
MAGNETIC WITH GUSTS TO 20KT THROUGH AROUND 22Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT WILL OCCASIONALLY VARY BETWEEN 290 AND 360
MAGNETIC WITH GUSTS TO 20KT THROUGH AROUND 22Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT WILL OCCASIONALLY VARY BETWEEN 290 AND 360
MAGNETIC WITH GUSTS TO 20KT THROUGH AROUND 22Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI AFT...CIGS LOWER THRU THE AFT WITH MVFR POSSIBLE LATE.
.FRI NGT-SAT NGT...MVFR OR LOWER. PCPN MAINLY RAIN...BUT SNOW MAY
MIX IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR SUN NIGHT. NE-N WINDS 15-20G25-35KT.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. AFT STRATO-CU WITH ISOLATED
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. NW WINDS 20-25G30-35KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 5-10 KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THEN MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...NW WINDS WILL
TURN TOWARD THE N TONIGHT. THE WINDS THEN TURN TO THE NE AND
INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. THESE E/NE WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT...LIKELY TO SCA
THRESHOLDS.

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SEAS BUILD LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
WINDS INCREASE. SCA CONDS ARE LIKELY BY SAT...BUT IT IS STILL
UNCERTAIN WHETHER GALES WILL DEVELOP THAT EARLY DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY OF AN INITIAL LOW PASSING TO THE SE. GALES APPEAR MORE
LIKELY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS AND PASSES TO THE SE...WITH CAA OVER STILL RELATIVELY
MILD WATERS AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

AFTER SOME LINGERING GALES ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS SUNDAY
EVENING...SCA CONDS SHOULD OTHERWISE FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MON FOR MOST WATERS. THEN QUIET CONDS SHOULD RETURN TO ALL WATERS
BY MON NIGHT. INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT COULD BRING
A RETURN OF SCA CONDS TO THE ERN OCEAN WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT-WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A
HALF INCH...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY ACROSS ERN LONG
ISLAND AND SE CT. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW








000
FXUS61 KBUF 301957
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
357 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED AREAS
OF CLOUDINESS INLAND FROM THE LAKES THROUGH THE DAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...USHERING
IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIQUID...ALTHOUGH A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN ON THE HILLS
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...WITH LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW NEAR THE
SURFACE...IS PROMOTING A COOL AND CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES LOCKED IN THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE SET TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA IS PUSHING SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE DEVELOPING SURFACE WARM
FRONT WITH THIS LOW WILL BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE WITH A SOUTHERLY FETCH...AND WE EXPECT
TO SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
BY DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY MORNING.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SPLITTING SOLUTION...WITH THE MAIN
VORTICITY MAX DIGGING INTO THE CAROLINAS...LEAVING OUR AREA UNDER
WEAK / SPLIT FLOW ALOFT. WE WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
FORECAST AREA WITH DECENT MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THE WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AS THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD. OUR BEST CHANCE OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS
SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WHILE QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT DUE TO THE LACK OF
WELL-DEFINED FORCING...THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LESS RAINFALL TO THE EAST...ESPECIALLY
DROPPING OFF EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND THE ROCHESTER AREA.

TEMPERATURE VARIANCE WILL BE VERY LOW BETWEEN TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AS CLOUD COVER AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT CLOUD COVER AND
INCREASING PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE LESS THAN 10 DEGREES...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER
30S AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL BE A WET START TO THE WEEKEND...AT LEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK AND PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AS THE AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO IN THE
WAKE OF A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CUTTING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. OROGRAPHIC LIFT
WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE APPROACH OF A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED LIFT. WHILE TEMPERATURES ALOFT...IN THE -2C TO -4C
RANGE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO ADD LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE MIX...IT WILL NOT LIKELY BE COLD ENOUGH TO FACILITATE A
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW. RATHER...WESTERN NEW YORK CAN EXPECT A
GENERAL LIGHT RAINFALL THROUGH THE NIGHT. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY UNDER
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW...AND AS SUCH ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED
IN SCOPE AND MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RELATIVELY
MILD MARITIME AIR FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THAT WILL KEEP LOWS FROM
DROPPING OUT OF THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH AREAS ALONG THE LAKE
PLAINS LIKELY STAYING IN THE LOWER 40S.

THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH THE FOCUS OF
PRECIPITATION SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EAST TO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PRESENT THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AS THE COMBINATION OF
NIGHTFALL AND THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE FORECAST AIR. HOWEVER THE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WILL BE THE DRY AIR ALOFT THAT WILL BE ACCOMPANYING THIS
COLD PUSH. AS THE AIR IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DRIES OUT...THERE
IS A POTENTIAL THAT WE COULD SEE ANY UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS PETER OUT INTO PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR POSSIBLY JUST
LAKE-INDUCED STRATUS WITH NO PRECIPITATION AT ALL.

ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD FIZZLE OUT SUNDAY MORNING
AS INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL OVERCOME ANY LAKE
ENHANCEMENT...THOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO
GO AROUND ON WHAT WILL OTHERWISE BE A DRY AND CHILLY DAY WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE LAKES AND
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY WILL LIKELY
STAY LOCKED IN THE UPPER 30S. WE CAN THEN EXPECT ONE MORE NIGHT OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE NEXT
WEEK

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A COOL AND SHOWER WEEKEND...WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
WILL TRANSITION TO A DRIER AND MORE MILD REGIME AS WE MOVE INTO THE
NEW WEEK. THIS WILL BE COURTESY OF STEEP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL
BE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. FLOW BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST
WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...PUSHING
TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE THE 50 DEGREE MARK MONDAY AND BY TUESDAY
MANY AREAS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS A 60 DEGREE
READING OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE TYPICALLY WARMER SPOTS
OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE FINGER LAKES. ALTHOUGH THE
WARM ADVECTION WILL PUT AN END TO ANY LAKE EFFECT CLOUD
COVER...THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO GO
AROUND MONDAY AND TUESDAY COURTESY OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.

AFTER A DRY START TO THE WEEK...WE WILL SEE SHOWERS CREEP BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
LOW LIFT FROM WESTERN ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. AS THE LOW
TRACKS INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC...IT WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
ARE INDICATING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE FAVORABLE FRONTOGENETIC AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING
AND RETURN FLOW SUPPLYING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
LOWER LAKES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS NOW SHOW SOME DIVERGENCE IN SOLUTIONS
REGARDING THE SPEED OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
THE GFS BRINGS A FRONTAL WAVE ACROSS NEW YORK THAT SLOWS UP THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF SPEEDS THE FRONT THROUGH WITH A
REINFORCING SHORTWAVE BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES...WILL JUST COVER THE PERIOD WITH LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING AND KEEP TEMERPATURES RIGHT AROUND
CLIMATOLOGY AS THE REGION WILL LIKELY BE AWASH IN A MILD PACIFIC
AIRMASS THAT WILL BE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIGS REMAIN WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET ON EITHER SIDE OF MVFR
THRESHOLDS AT ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.
TAF SITES NEAREST THE LAKES...KBUF/KIAG/KROC/KART...WILL LIKELY SEE
FREQUENT CHANGES BETWEEN VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
THESE SITES SHOULD FAVOR VFR.

TONIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LIGHT
WINDS AND TRAPPED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE MAINLY MVFR CIGS
AT ALL TAF SITES. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL REACH FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK AROUND 9-15Z TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MVFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING
LIKELY.
SATURDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH WET SNOW ON THE HIGHEST HILLS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED WINDS AND WAVES ON LAKE
ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. LATEST OBSERVATIONS
ON LAKE ONTARIO SUGGEST WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 3 FEET...AND
WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND DOWNWARD.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS BOTH LAKE ERIE
AND LAKE ONTARIO...BEFORE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST OVER
LAKE ERIE EARLY IN THE DAY...AND WILL SPREAD WEST ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH WINDS OVER 20KTS COMMON ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. WAVE
HEIGHTS SHOULD INCREASE TO 3 TO 6 FEET...ESPICALLY ACROSS WESTERN
LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THUS HAVE ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY
         FOR LOZ030-042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...CHURCH








000
FXUS61 KBTV 301951
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
351 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER
WITH LIGHT WINDS...BUT A CONTINUATION OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.
MEANWHILE...A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRANSLATE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND RESULT
IN A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT THURSDAY...FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED AS WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE CRESTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STILL DEALING WITH
PREVAILING STRATUS/STRATOCU DECK...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS FROM NAM/RAP SOUNDING PROFILES
THAT CLOUD LAYER WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVERNIGHT WITH JUST A FEW
BREAKS. TRENDED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS ON OVERNIGHT
TEMPS...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 30S...AND A FEW LOWER 30S
ACROSS FAR NERN VT AND ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. IF A FEW
ADDITIONAL BREAKS DEVELOP IN THE CLOUD COVER...SOME LOCALIZED
READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACK REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL GENERALLY TAPER OFF TO 5 MPH OR LESS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT THURSDAY...DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. NOT MUCH INFLUENCE FROM THIS SYSTEM
ON FRIDAY...WITH JUST A WEAK SURFACE LOW REFLECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS OHIO WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH NNEWD ACROSS SERN
ONTARIO TO NEAR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. MAIN INFLUENCE WILL BE
INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION...ALONG WITH
STRATUS LAYER WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE AS WELL. ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO A FEW RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY ALONG/NEAR THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. THUS...SHOWING JUST
20-30 POPS ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. P-GRADIENT QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...SO
WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE LIGHT N-NE MOST LOCATIONS...AND LOCALLY
5-10 MPH ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR
40S...EXCEPT LOW 50S FOR THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE WITH UPPER LOW DIGGING TO OUR S-SW DURING
FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOKING FOR A CONTINUATION OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS
IN THE MID-UPR 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

QUESTION FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MID-
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PHASING WITHIN THE BROADER UPPER TROUGH
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. MODELS VARY ON
EXTENT OF PHASING AND ULTIMATE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN LOW
DEVELOPMENT...WITH CLOSED SFC-700MB LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
BY EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z NAM IS GENERALLY DRY ACROSS OUR
REGION WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM DEVELOPING FURTHER OUT TO SEA.
SIMILARLY...THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N 70W BENCHMARKS WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS PREVIOUS IDEA WITH A NUDGE TOWARD THE
12Z GFS. THIS MEANS SOME LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COOL ACROSS THE REGION. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
EASTERN/NERN VERMONT WITH FRINGE INFLUENCE OF LOW IN THE GULF OF
MAINE. LOOKING AT JUST A DUSTING TO AN 1" OR SO ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOCALLY 1-3" ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL/NRN GREENS INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HIGHS SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE
40S WITH LOWER 30S EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY...IN GENERAL, THE 12Z SUITE OF MODELS
DON`T OFFER ANY LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN
AND ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO ONE ANOTHER. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES, THOUGH SUBTLE, THAT COULD EFFECT THE ACTUAL WEATHER
WE OBSERVE (AND THUS THE FORECAST CHALLENGE). WE ARE STILL LOOKING
AT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED POWERFUL STORM TO MOVE BY
FAR ENOUGH OFF THE COAST TO AVOID ANY SIGNIFICANT DIRECT IMPACT ON
THE REGION, BUT WE`LL NOTICE A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER (COLD,
BREEZY, CHANCES FOR HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY). THE
PATTERN IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SO BY TUESDAY WE RETURN TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WITH THE WEATHER TURNING MILDER, THOUGH REMAINING UNSETTLED.
DON`T SEE A LOT OF SUNNY WEATHER IN OUR FUTURE. A FEW MORE DETAILS
FOLLOW...

SUNDAY: 12Z GFS HAS COME IN A SMIDGE WEST OF PREVIOUS RUNS AND
KEEP A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION, ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN HALF. THE 12Z EURO IS A LITTLE
WEAKER WITH THE STORM, AND DOES NOT HAVE AS MUCH MOISTURE IN PLACE
FOR US. TAKEN AT FACE VALUE, THE GFS DOES INDICATE ABOUT
0.05-0.10" MELTED EQUIVALENT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN VERMONT AND INTO THE `DACKS. THE EURO IS DRY. THINK THE
OVERALL FORECAST IDEA WE`VE HAD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THERE TO
BE SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN/EASTERN VERMONT LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER GIVEN THE 12Z GFS,
DID DECIDE TO INTRODUCE SOME SMALL POPS INTO THE `DACKS AS WELL.
NET RESULT, HAVE SOME 10-30% POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY,
HIGHEST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION, BUT PERHAPS ENOUGH TO WRING OUT 1" OR SO
AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500FT DURING THE DAY. A COUPLE OF THINGS WE
ARE CONFIDENT OF IS A STRONG/GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND (PERHAPS
30MPH+ AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS VERMONT) AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT LEAST -5C, UNDER STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION, TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. THINK EVEN FOR BTV, WE WILL FAIL TO HIT 40F.

SUNDAY NIGHT: IF WE HAVEN`T CLEARED OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WE
WILL BY EVENING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH, BUT WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE (DEWPOINTS INTO THE TEENS), TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL
PRETTY QUICK. LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST SUB-30F TEMPERATURES FOR
BURLINGTON. LOWS INTO THE UPPER 10S IN THE COLDEST SPOTS, WITH
QUITE A FEW LOW 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

MONDAY: LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET. COULD BE A FAIRLY SUNNY DAY AS WEAK
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WENT WITH BLEND OF GUIDANCE BUT
ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S.

TUESDAY: WARM FRONT STARTS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS ARE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS. SAW NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THE CONSISTENT MODELS, SO
IDEA OF CHANCE LEVEL POPS, HIGHEST IN NORTHERN SECTIONS WHERE THE
MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST. TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND
WE`LL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (PUSHING 50F IN THE VALLEYS)

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ENSURE MILD
TEMPERATURES BOTH DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT, HOWEVER IT APPEARS A
FRONT WILL GET STRUNG OUT NEAR/ACROSS THE REGION AND BE A FOCUS
FOR ON-AND-OFF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BOTH DAYS. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE RIBBON OF
MOISTURE, BUT ENOUGH SIMILARITY TO KEEP WITH 50-60% CHANCES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
HIGHS, BUT WITH THE CLOUDS, IT WILL STAY WARMER THAN NORMAL AT
NIGHT (50S IN THE DAY, 40S AT NIGHT).

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...CURRENTLY A GOOD DEAL OF STRATO-CUMULUS
ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH CEILINGS ARE PRIMARILY VFR -- EXCEPTION
IS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE IT WORKS OUT TO BE MVFR. WITH
CLOUD BASES RUNNING ABOUT 4000FT MSL, THAT MEANS SUMMITS ARE
OBSCURED IN THE CLOUDS. NO BIG CHANGES EXPECTED THE REST OF THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WE MAY SEE AREAS WHERE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME
THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT -- THIS IS MOST LIKELY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND EASTWARD. ANTICIPATE MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR SLK. NOT
LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION, AT LEAST NOTHING THAT
WOULD IMPACT VISIBILITIES. JUST TO NOTE THAT SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AT MASSENA LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS
POINT WILL KEEP THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST AS THINKING ENOUGH CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND TO MINIMIZE THE FOG FORMATION PROCESSES. HOWEVER
STRANGE THINGS CAN HAPPEN OUT IN MASSENA...

ON FRIDAY WE WILL AGAIN SEE CLOUDS THICKEN UP AND MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST, HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN VFR. COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AS WE APPROACH 18Z FRIDAY, BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS
POINT.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
18Z FRI-18Z SUN -- WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TURNING TO A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
18Z SUN-12Z TUES -- VFR. SURFACE WINDS MAY BE GUSTING OVER 20KTS
ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
12Z TUES ONWARD -- MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH




000
FXUS61 KALY 301933
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
333 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS COVERING MOST OF UPSTATE NEW YORK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY WHERE DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW HAS RESULTED IN
SOME CLEARING. A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES ARE PERSISTING OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THOSE WILL BE DIMINISHING TOWARD EVENING.
CLEARING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY THIS EVENING WITH AT
LEAST SOME CLEARING ELSEWHERE AS A SMALL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
IN MOST AREAS.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO MONITOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE A
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL
DIVE SOUTH AND CLOSE-OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
VIRGINIA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT THIS LOW WILL TRACK WELL TO
THE EAST OF OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE FAR
EAST WHERE SOME STEADIER PRECIPITATION MIGHT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
OR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE SHIELD OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL GET AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL MASS... WHILE THE
NAM IS A BIT FARTHER EAST.

OTHERWISE THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL BE
COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HAVE GONE WITH POP VALUES MAINLY NEAR 30 PERCENT FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THIS. EXPECT LOWEST POPS TO BE
IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE WEST OF THE CATSKILLS AS THE FLOW WILL BE NNW INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A DRY UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY BUT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE MODERATING WEATHER AS THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH RIDGING BUILDING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS... FOLLOWED
BY COOLER BUT NOT REALLY VERY COLD WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATER TIME PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. SKIES
WILL BE BKN- 0VC WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 4-6 KFT THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH SCT STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS
TO 20 KTS... BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM








000
FXUS61 KBTV 301922
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
322 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK ON
FRIDAY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH PREVAILING NW FLOW (AROUND 10 MPH).
THIN LAYER OF STRATOCU AND STRATUS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE...AND WILL
LIKELY HOLD IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS VCNTY
OF SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX NY COUNTY INTO RUTLAND COUNTY...BUT
MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON UPWARD BY A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WHERE SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S.
GENERALLY UPPER 40S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT THURSDAY...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...AS WIND FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AS WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

ON FRIDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY.
THUS...THIS TAKES THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THIS IS A CHANGE
FROM A FEW DAYS AGO WITH HAD THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR OVER OR
REGION. MODEL SHOWING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK...ESPECIALLY THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
ON SATURDAY...MODELS DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TAKE IT NORTHEAST WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL JUST HAVE LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S ON SATURDAY...WITH THE UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY...IN GENERAL, THE 12Z SUITE OF MODELS
DON`T OFFER ANY LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN
AND ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO ONE ANOTHER. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES, THOUGH SUBTLE, THAT COULD EFFECT THE ACTUAL WEATHER
WE OBSERVE (AND THUS THE FORECAST CHALLENGE). WE ARE STILL LOOKING
AT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED POWERFUL STORM TO MOVE BY
FAR ENOUGH OFF THE COAST TO AVOID ANY SIGNIFICANT DIRECT IMPACT ON
THE REGION, BUT WE`LL NOTICE A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER (COLD,
BREEZY, CHANCES FOR HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY). THE
PATTERN IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SO BY TUESDAY WE RETURN TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WITH THE WEATHER TURNING MILDER, THOUGH REMAINING UNSETTLED.
DON`T SEE A LOT OF SUNNY WEATHER IN OUR FUTURE. A FEW MORE DETAILS
FOLLOW...

SUNDAY: 12Z GFS HAS COME IN A SMIDGE WEST OF PREVIOUS RUNS AND
KEEP A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION, ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN HALF. THE 12Z EURO IS A LITTLE
WEAKER WITH THE STORM, AND DOES NOT HAVE AS MUCH MOISTURE IN PLACE
FOR US. TAKEN AT FACE VALUE, THE GFS DOES INDICATE ABOUT
0.05-0.10" MELTED EQUIVALENT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN VERMONT AND INTO THE `DACKS. THE EURO IS DRY. THINK THE
OVERALL FORECAST IDEA WE`VE HAD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THERE TO
BE SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN/EASTERN VERMONT LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER GIVEN THE 12Z GFS,
DID DECIDE TO INTRODUCE SOME SMALL POPS INTO THE `DACKS AS WELL.
NET RESULT, HAVE SOME 10-30% POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY,
HIGHEST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION, BUT PERHAPS ENOUGH TO WRING OUT 1" OR SO
AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500FT DURING THE DAY. A COUPLE OF THINGS WE
ARE CONFIDENT OF IS A STRONG/GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND (PERHAPS
30MPH+ AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS VERMONT) AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT LEAST -5C, UNDER STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION, TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. THINK EVEN FOR BTV, WE WILL FAIL TO HIT 40F.

SUNDAY NIGHT: IF WE HAVEN`T CLEARED OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WE
WILL BY EVENING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH, BUT WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE (DEWPOINTS INTO THE TEENS), TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL
PRETTY QUICK. LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST SUB-30F TEMPERATURES FOR
BURLINGTON. LOWS INTO THE UPPER 10S IN THE COLDEST SPOTS, WITH
QUITE A FEW LOW 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

MONDAY: LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET. COULD BE A FAIRLY SUNNY DAY AS WEAK
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WENT WITH BLEND OF GUIDANCE BUT
ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S.

TUESDAY: WARM FRONT STARTS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS ARE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS. SAW NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THE CONSISTENT MODELS, SO
IDEA OF CHANCE LEVEL POPS, HIGHEST IN NORTHERN SECTIONS WHERE THE
MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST. TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND
WE`LL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (PUSHING 50F IN THE VALLEYS)

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ENSURE MILD
TEMPERATURES BOTH DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT, HOWEVER IT APPEARS A
FRONT WILL GET STRUNG OUT NEAR/ACROSS THE REGION AND BE A FOCUS
FOR ON-AND-OFF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BOTH DAYS. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE RIBBON OF
MOISTURE, BUT ENOUGH SIMILARITY TO KEEP WITH 50-60% CHANCES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
HIGHS, BUT WITH THE CLOUDS, IT WILL STAY WARMER THAN NORMAL AT
NIGHT (50S IN THE DAY, 40S AT NIGHT).

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...CURRENTLY A GOOD DEAL OF STRATO-CUMULUS
ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH CEILINGS ARE PRIMARILY VFR -- EXCEPTION
IS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE IT WORKS OUT TO BE MVFR. WITH
CLOUD BASES RUNNING ABOUT 4000FT MSL, THAT MEANS SUMMITS ARE
OBSCURED IN THE CLOUDS. NO BIG CHANGES EXPECTED THE REST OF THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WE MAY SEE AREAS WHERE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME
THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT -- THIS IS MOST LIKELY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND EASTWARD. ANTICIPATE MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR SLK. NOT
LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION, AT LEAST NOTHING THAT
WOULD IMPACT VISIBILITIES. JUST TO NOTE THAT SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AT MASSENA LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS
POINT WILL KEEP THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST AS THINKING ENOUGH CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND TO MINIMIZE THE FOG FORMATION PROCESSES. HOWEVER
STRANGE THINGS CAN HAPPEN OUT IN MASSENA...

ON FRIDAY WE WILL AGAIN SEE CLOUDS THICKEN UP AND MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST, HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN VFR. COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AS WE APPROACH 18Z FRIDAY, BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS
POINT.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
18Z FRI-18Z SUN -- WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TURNING TO A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
18Z SUN-12Z TUES -- VFR. SURFACE WINDS MAY BE GUSTING OVER 20KTS
ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
12Z TUES ONWARD -- MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 301921
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
321 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED AREAS
OF CLOUDINESS INLAND FROM THE LAKES THROUGH THE DAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...USHERING
IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIQUID...ALTHOUGH A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN ON THE HILLS
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...WITH LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW NEAR THE
SURFACE...IS PROMOTING A COOL AND CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES LOCKED IN THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE SET TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA IS PUSHING SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE DEVELOPING SURFACE WARM
FRONT WITH THIS LOW WILL BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE WITH A SOUTHERLY FETCH...AND WE EXPECT
TO SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
BY DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY MORNING.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SPLITTING SOLUTION...WITH THE MAIN
VORTICITY MAX DIGGING INTO THE CAROLINAS...LEAVING OUR AREA UNDER
WEAK / SPLIT FLOW ALOFT. WE WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
FORECAST AREA WITH DECENT MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THE WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AS THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD. OUR BEST CHANCE OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS
SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WHILE QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT DUE TO THE LACK OF
WELL-DEFINED FORCING...THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LESS RAINFALL TO THE EAST...ESPECIALLY
DROPPING OFF EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND THE ROCHESTER AREA.

TEMPERATURE VARIANCE WILL BE VERY LOW BETWEEN TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AS CLOUD COVER AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT CLOUD COVER AND
INCREASING PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE LESS THAN 10 DEGREES...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER
30S AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL BE A WET START TO THE WEEKEND...AT LEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK AND PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AS THE AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO IN THE
WAKE OF A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CUTTING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. OROGRAPHIC LIFT
WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE APPROACH OF A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED LIFT. WHILE TEMPERATURES ALOFT...IN THE -2C TO -4C
RANGE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO ADD LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE MIX...IT WILL NOT LIKELY BE COLD ENOUGH TO FACILITATE A
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW. RATHER...WESTERN NEW YORK CAN EXPECT A
GENERAL LIGHT RAINFALL THROUGH THE NIGHT. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY UNDER
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW...AND AS SUCH ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED
IN SCOPE AND MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RELATIVELY
MILD MARITIME AIR FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THAT WILL KEEP LOWS FROM
DROPPING OUT OF THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH AREAS ALONG THE LAKE
PLAINS LIKELY STAYING IN THE LOWER 40S.

THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH THE FOCUS OF
PRECIPITATION SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EAST TO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PRESENT THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AS THE COMBINATION OF
NIGHTFALL AND THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE FORECAST AIR. HOWEVER THE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WILL BE THE DRY AIR ALOFT THAT WILL BE ACCOMPANYING THIS
COLD PUSH. AS THE AIR IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DRIES OUT...THERE
IS A POTENTIAL THAT WE COULD SEE ANY UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS PETER OUT INTO PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR POSSIBLY JUST
LAKE-INDUCED STRATUS WITH NO PRECIPITATION AT ALL.

ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD FIZZLE OUT SUNDAY MORNING
AS INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL OVERCOME ANY LAKE
ENHANCEMENT...THOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO
GO AROUND ON WHAT WILL OTHERWISE BE A DRY AND CHILLY DAY WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE LAKES AND
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY WILL LIKELY
STAY LOCKED IN THE UPPER 30S. WE CAN THEN EXPECT ONE MORE NIGHT OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE NEXT
WEEK

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A COOL AND SHOWER WEEKEND...WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
WILL TRANSITION TO A DRIER AND MORE MILD REGIME AS WE MOVE INTO THE
NEW WEEK. THIS WILL BE COURTESY OF STEEP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL
BE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. FLOW BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST
WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...PUSHING
TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE THE 50 DEGREE MARK MONDAY AND BY TUESDAY
MANY AREAS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS A 60 DEGREE
READING OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE TYPICALLY WARMER SPOTS
OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE FINGER LAKES. ALTHOUGH THE
WARM ADVECTION WILL PUT AN END TO ANY LAKE EFFECT CLOUD
COVER...THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO GO
AROUND MONDAY AND TUESDAY COURTESY OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.

AFTER A DRY START TO THE WEEK...WE WILL SEE SHOWERS CREEP BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
LOW LIFT FROM WESTERN ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. AS THE LOW
TRACKS INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC...IT WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
ARE INDICATING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE FAVORABLE FRONTOGENETIC AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING
AND RETURN FLOW SUPPLYING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
LOWER LAKES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS NOW SHOW SOME DIVERGENCE IN SOLUTIONS
REGARDING THE SPEED OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
THE GFS BRINGS A FRONTAL WAVE ACROSS NEW YORK THAT SLOWS UP THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF SPEEDS THE FRONT THROUGH WITH A
REINFORCING SHORTWAVE BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES...WILL JUST COVER THE PERIOD WITH LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING AND KEEP TEMERPATURES RIGHT AROUND
CLIMATOLOGY AS THE REGION WILL LIKELY BE AWASH IN A MILD PACIFIC
AIRMASS THAT WILL BE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIGS REMAIN WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET ON EITHER SIDE OF MVFR
THRESHOLDS AT ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.
TAF SITES NEAREST THE LAKES...KBUF/KIAG/KROC/KART...WILL LIKELY SEE
FREQUENT CHANGES BETWEEN VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
THESE SITES SHOULD FAVOR VFR.

TONIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LIGHT
WINDS AND TRAPPED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE MAINLY MVFR CIGS
AT ALL TAF SITES. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL REACH FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK AROUND 9-15Z TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MVFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING
LIKELY.
SATURDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH WET SNOW ON THE HIGHEST HILLS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED WINDS AND WAVES ON LAKE
ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. LATEST OBSERVATIONS
ON LAKE ONTARIO SUGGEST WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 3 FEET...AND
WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND DOWNWARD.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS BOTH LAKE ERIE
AND LAKE ONTARIO...BEFORE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST OVER
LAKE ERIE EARLY IN THE DAY...AND WILL SPREAD WEST ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...CHURCH








000
FXUS61 KBGM 301846
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
246 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...PERHAPS BRINGING SOME RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES AWAY BY LATER
SUNDAY...DRIER WEATHER...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES...SHOULD
THEN BE THE RULE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
225 PM THU UPDATE... PLUME OF LAKE-EFFECT -SHRA CONTINUES LATE
THIS AFTN FROM ROUGHLY KSYR SEWD TOWARDS ONEONTA. WE STILL EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN...THEN ULTIMATELY DSIPT BY THIS EVE.

HOWEVER...THE THICK MASS OF SC CLDS OVER CNY/NE PA WILL VERY
LIKELY HANG IN LONGER...AS UPSLOPE NWLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO
TNT...AND MOISTURE STAYS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ALOFT. MOST MODEL RH PROFILES BEGIN TO DRY OUT THE BLYR AFTER
03-06Z...SPCLY OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH WE DO LOSE
THE LAKE CONNECTION/UPSLOPE COMPONENT OVERNIGHT...THE INVERSION
WILL REMAIN. OUR GUT FEELING IS THAT WE`LL GRADUALLY LOSE THE SC
CLDS ACRS NE PA AND PTNS OF NY`S SRN TIER...WITH THE NRN ZNS
KEEPING THE LWR CLDS A BIT LONGER.

TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY TNT...DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER. FOR
NOW...WE HAVE LOWS RANGING IN THE 30S (WITH LWR 30S IN THE
POCONOS/CATSKILLS WHERE CLEARING IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR...AND UPR
30S TO NEAR 40 IN THE LAKE PLAIN CNTYS...WHERE THICKER CLDS SHOULD
PREVAIL FOR A LONGER PD OF TIME).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
235 PM THU UPDATE... THE WELL ADVERTISED DEEPENING TROUGH PATN
OVER THE ERN STATES IS STILL EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE THIS PD.

ALTHOUGH SOME SMALL MODEL TO MODEL DIFFS REMAIN...LARGE-SCALE
AGREEMENT IS PRETTY GOOD THAT A SRN BRANCH OF THIS TROUGH WILL
SPLIT...AND THEN CLOSE OFF OVER VA/NC BY SAT...ULTIMATELY
AMPLIFYING OFFSHORE...AND SPINNING UP A ROBUST SFC CYCLONE WELL OFF
THE COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...THE NRN BRANCH OF THE TROUGH WILL LAG
A BIT BEHIND...AND CROSS NY/PA SAT NGT/EARLY SUN.

THE SRN BRANCH TROUGH AND DEEP OCEANIC STORM STILL APPEAR TO BE
TOO FAR REMOVED TO OUR E AND S TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON OUR FCST
AREA. HOWEVER...THE NRN BRANCH TROUGH SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SCTD
RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FRI NGT...SAT...AND SAT NGT...AS INSTAB/FORCED LIFT ACTS
UPON THE MOISTURE SUPPLY IN PLACE. THERMAL PROFILES LOOK TOO WARM
FOR ANYTHING BUT LIQUID PTYPE FRI NGT AND SAT...HOWEVER BY SAT
NGT/SUN MRNG...WE SHOULD TREND TWDS SNOW.

DEPENDING ON JUST HOW QUICKLY THE MID-LVLS DRY OUT SAT NGT/EARLY
SUN...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR FINGER LAKES SNOW
BAND DVLPMT...GIVEN A DEEP NRLY FLOW PATN...SUFFICIENT LAKE/AIR
TEMP DIFFS...AND POTENTIALLY ADEQUATE MOISTURE SUPPLY. ONCE
AGN...THE EXACT BLYR FLOW ORIENTATION AND LONGEVITY OF DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE KEY FACTORS IN THIS REGARD.

FOR NOW...WE`LL CONTINUE WITH CHC/SCTD POP`S FRI NGT-SAT NGT FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH THINGS DRYING OUT BY SUN AFTN. TEMPS WILL
BE CHILLY THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S SAT...AND IN
THE 30S-LWR 40S SUN. READINGS SAT NGT SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPR
20S-LWR 30S IN MOST LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1 PM THU UPDATE... DEEP UPR-LVL TROUGH ALG THE EAST COAST AT THE
START OF THE PD...WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING AWAY TO THE NE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ITS WAKE...SFC RIDGING...AND ALSO S/WV RIDGING
ALOFT...WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY WX AND MODERATING TEMPS MON-TUE.

OUR NEXT SHOT AT PCPN WILL LIKELY COME TWDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WHEN AN UPR-LVL TROUGH WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE W...ALG WITH A SFC FRONTAL
COMPLEX. AS A RESULT...WE`VE INSERTED SCTD SHWRS STARTING LATER
TUE NGT...THEN PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST WED.

AS ALLUDED TO ABV...READINGS WILL BE ON THE UPSWING NEXT WEEK...WITH
DAILY HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THU UPDATE... A PERSISTENT SC DECK WILL STAY WITH US THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY THIS EVE...ALTHOUGH AT MOST SITES CIG BASES WILL
REMAIN IN THE VFR CAT. THE TWO EXCEPTIONS ARE KBGM/KITH...WHERE OCNL MVFR
CIGS CAN STILL BE ANTICIPATED THROUGH 21-00Z.

THE LWR CLOUD DECK SHOULD HAVE A TENDENCY TO SLOWLY SCT OUT LTR
TNT AND EARLY FRI...WITH MID AND HIGH-LVL CLDNS COMING IN OVER THE
TOP. THE UPSHOT HERE IS THAT VFR SHOULD BE MAINTAINED.

NW SFC WINDS 8-12 KT THIS AFTN...WILL BECOME LGT OVERNIGHT...THEN
PICK UP A BIT OUT OF THE SE ON FRI AT 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT-SAT NGT...OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN-MON...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ







000
FXUS61 KBGM 301841
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
241 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...PERHAPS BRINGING SOME RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES AWAY BY LATER
SUNDAY...DRIER WEATHER...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES...SHOULD
THEN BE THE RULE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
225 PM THU UPDATE... PLUME OF LAKE-EFFECT -SHRA CONTINUES LATE
THIS AFTN FROM ROUGHLY KSYR SEWD TOWARDS ONEONTA. WE STILL EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN...THEN ULTIMATELY DSIPT BY THIS EVE.

HOWEVER...THE THICK MASS OF SC CLDS OVER CNY/NE PA WILL VERY
LIKELY HANG IN LONGER...AS UPSLOPE NWLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO
TNT...AND MOISTURE STAYS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ALOFT. MOST MODEL RH PROFILES BEGIN TO DRY OUT THE BLYR AFTER
03-06Z...SPCLY OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH WE DO LOSE
THE LAKE CONNECTION/UPSLOPE COMPONENT OVERNIGHT...THE INVERSION
WILL REMAIN. OUR GUT FEELING IS THAT WE`LL GRADUALLY LOSE THE SC
CLDS ACRS NE PA AND PTNS OF NY`S SRN TIER...WITH THE NRN ZNS
KEEPING THE LWR CLDS A BIT LONGER.

TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY TNT...DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER. FOR
NOW...WE HAVE LOWS RANGING IN THE 30S (WITH LWR 30S IN THE
POCONOS/CATSKILLS WHERE CLEARING IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR...AND UPR
30S TO NEAR 40 IN THE LAKE PLAIN CNTYS...WHERE THICKER CLDS SHOULD
PREVAIL FOR A LONGER PD OF TIME).

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
235 PM THU UPDATE... THE WELL ADVERTISED DEEPENING TROUGH PATN
OVER THE ERN STATES IS STILL EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE THIS PD.

ALTHOUGH SOME SMALL MODEL TO MODEL DIFFS REMAIN...LARGE-SCALE
AGREEMENT IS PRETTY GOOD THAT A SRN BRANCH OF THIS TROUGH WILL
SPLIT...AND THEN CLOSE OFF OVER VA/NC BY SAT...ULTIMATELY
AMPLIFYING OFFSHORE...AND SPINNING UP A ROBUST SFC CYCLONE WELL OFF
THE COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...THE NRN BRANCH OF THE TROUGH WILL LAG
A BIT BEHIND...AND CROSS NY/PA SAT NGT/EARLY SUN.

THE SRN BRANCH TROUGH AND DEEP OCEANIC STORM STILL APPEAR TO BE
TOO FAR REMOVED TO OUR E AND S TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON OUR FCST
AREA. HOWEVER...THE NRN BRANCH TROUGH SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SCTD
RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FRI NGT...SAT...AND SAT NGT...AS INSTAB/FORCED LIFT ACTS
UPON THE MOISTURE SUPPLY IN PLACE. THERMAL PROFILES LOOK TOO WARM
FOR ANYTHING BUT LIQUID PTYPE FRI NGT AND SAT...HOWEVER BY SAT
NGT/SUN MRNG...WE SHOULD TREND TWDS SNOW.

DEPENDING ON JUST HOW QUICKLY THE MID-LVLS DRY OUT SAT NGT/EARLY
SUN...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR FINGER LAKES SNOW
BAND DVLPMT...GIVEN A DEEP NRLY FLOW PATN...SUFFICIENT LAKE/AIR
TEMP DIFFS...AND POTENTIALLY ADEQUATE MOISTURE SUPPLY. ONCE
AGN...THE EXACT BLYR FLOW ORIENTATION AND LONGEVITY OF DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE KEY FACTORS IN THIS REGARD.

FOR NOW...WE`LL CONTINUE WITH CHC/SCTD POP`S FRI NGT-SAT NGT FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH THINGS DRYING OUT BY SUN AFTN. TEMPS WILL
BE CHILLY THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S SAT...AND IN
THE 30S-LWR 40S SUN. READINGS SAT NGT SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPR
20S-LWR 30S IN MOST LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1 PM THU UPDATE... DEEP UPR-LVL TROUGH ALG THE EAST COAST AT THE
START OF THE PD...WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING AWAY TO THE NE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ITS WAKE...SFC RIDGING...AND ALSO S/WV RIDGING
ALOFT...WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY WX AND MODERATING TEMPS MON-TUE.

OUR NEXT SHOT AT PCPN WILL LIKELY COME TWDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WHEN AN UPR-LVL TROUGH WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE W...ALG WITH A SFC FRONTAL
COMPLEX. AS A RESULT...WE`VE INSERTED SCTD SHWRS STARTING LATER
TUE NGT...THEN PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST WED.

AS ALLUDED TO ABV...READINGS WILL BE ON THE UPSWING NEXT WEEK...WITH
DAILY HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THU UPDATE... A PERSISTENT SC DECK WILL STAY WITH US THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY THIS EVE...ALTHOUGH AT MOST SITES CIG BASES WILL
REMAIN IN THE VFR CAT. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS KBGM...WHERE OCNL MVFR
CIGS CAN STILL BE ANTICIPATED THROUGH ABT 21Z.

THE LWR CLOUD DECK SHOULD HAVE A TENDENCY TO SLOWLY SCT OUT LTR
TNT AND EARLY FRI...WITH MID AND HIGH-LVL CLDNS COMING IN OVER THE
TOP. THE UPSHOT HERE IS THAT VFR SHOULD BE MAINTAINED.

NW SFC WINDS 8-12 KT THIS AFTN...WILL BECOME LGT OVERNIGHT...THEN
PICK UP A BIT OUT OF THE SE ON FRI AT 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT-SAT NGT...OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN-MON...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ







000
FXUS61 KOKX 301805
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
205 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY...THEN TRACKS
NORTHEAST TO EAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE A
SECONDARY LOW FORMS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY...THEN
TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS STORM THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATES ON LATEST T/TD TRENDS...AND CLOUDS. PASSAGE OF 700-500
HPA TROUGH AXIS WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED-BROKEN CLOUDS. DOWNSLOPE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR.

LATEST HOURLY GUIDANCE IN LINE WITH FORECAST HIGHS. EXPECT HIGHS
TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A 850-500 HPA SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE PROMOTING MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. AS A RESULT...HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS LOWER OF
MET/MAV/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS. NOT
QUITE CERTAIN ENOUGH OF A COMPLETELY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS TO
GO COLDER AT THIS TIME. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NNW FROM COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF
THE VA/NC COAST FRIDAY TOWARDS LONG ISLAND. THIS COUPLED WITH A
PASSING WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WARRANTS INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR -SHRA OVER
MAINLY LONG ISLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGIZES A SURFACE LOW EMERGING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS STRENGTHEN THIS STORM AS IT HEADS
NE...PASSING SE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH FIRST BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AT LEAST CHANCE POPS REMAIN ON SATURDAY
WITH SOME MID LEVEL LIFT...ALTHOUGH MODEL QPF OUTPUT SUGGESTS
THAT COASTAL AREAS WARRANT LIKELY POPS...BEING CLOSER TO THE
STORM CENTER. CHANCES OF RAINFALL THEN DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE STORM SHIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA...WITH DRY WEATHER
BY SUNDAY MORNING.

THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST AN ALL RAIN EVENT. BY THE TIME FREEZING
LEVELS AND WET BULB ZEROES LOWER ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW...PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ENDED OR WILL JUST ABOUT TO
END. THIS WOULD BE THE CASE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CITY. WITH SUCH LIMITED COVERAGE OF A LOW
PROBABILITY EVENT...HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF SNOW FROM THE
GRIDS.

WINDS WILL END UP BEING THE BIGGER STORY...AND WILL BE AT THEIR
STRONGEST FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COULD
GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT SOME POINT DURING THIS
PERIOD...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AVERAGING AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND 30 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE GROWING SEASON THEN PROBABLY ENDS
FOR MORE OF THE ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE CITY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. TEMPS THEN BEGIN THEIR CLIMB BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL ON MONDAY...BEFORE REACHING NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY
WITH A SW FLOW.

NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THEN ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A WARM FRONT PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HI PRES SLIDES NORTH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LOW
PRES BEGINS TO DEVELOP S OF THE REGION FRI.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN 4-5 KFT STRATO CU THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING SCT TONIGHT. INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR BKN
STRATO-CU 3.5-4 KFT TO DEVELOP FRI MORNING. INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR TOWARDS FRI EVE ACROSS METRO TERMINALS
WITH -RA DEVELOPING.

NW WINDS...BACKING TO THE WNW LATE THIS AFT INTO EARLY
EVE...S COASTS. DIRECTION VEERS TO THE N OVERNIGHT AND NE ON
FRIDAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT WAVERING BETWEEN 290 AND 310 MAGNETIC
THROUGH 23Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT WAVERING BETWEEN 290 AND 310 MAGNETIC
THROUGH 23Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI AFT...CIGS LOWER THRU THE AFT WITH MVFR POSSIBLE LATE.
.FRI NGT-SAT NGT...MVFR OR LOWER. PCPN MAINLY RAIN...BUT SNOW MAY
MIX IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR SUN NIGHT. NE-N WINDS 15-20G25-35KT.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. AFT STRATO-CU WITH ISOLATED
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. NW WINDS 20-25G30-35KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 5-10 KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND WILL RESULT IN WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS POSSIBLY OVER THE
FAR EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE NE
FLOW COULD STRENGTHEN TO UP TO 15 KT. AS A RESULT...SUB-SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS NE FLOW STRENGTHENS...THEN EXPECT
NORTHERLY GALES ON THE OCEAN BY SAT AFTERNOON...AND N-NW GALES ON
ALL WATERS - ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN AND THE ERN SOUND/BAYS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT ON...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS BY MON
MORNING...AND ON THE OCEAN BY MON NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AT MOST A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND.

RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNDER A HALF INCH WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL AREAS. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT







000
FXUS61 KBUF 301750
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
150 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED
AREAS OF CLOUDINESS INLAND FROM THE LAKES THROUGH THE DAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...USHERING IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG
WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIQUID...ALTHOUGH A FEW WET
SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN ON THE HILLS SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARMING TREND
IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING DISPLAYS TWO SHORTWAVES. THE FIRST
ONE IS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM OUR REGION TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND...AND MORE POTENT IS DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MANITOBA.

A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN ON IR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL LEAVE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TODAY FOR
OUR REGION. THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING OVER THE LAKESHORES...AND
THE NORTHERN NIAGARA FRONTIER TODAY.

UNDER THESE CLOUDS HIGHS TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 WITH MOST
AREAS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S THROUGH THE DAY.

OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY TODAY THE SECOND SHORTWAVE OVER
MANITOBA WILL DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THIS SURFACE LOW WILL PROVIDE A
BOUNDARY FOR WHICH SOUTHERLY...AND INCREASING MOISTURE FLOW WILL
PRODUCE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARDS
DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. AREAS FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.

THOUGH THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEEPENING AT THE
SURFACE...IT WILL NOT BE TO DEEP...WITH A CENTRAL SURFACE PRESSURE
REMAINING ABOVE 1000MB. THIS WILL NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH TO CREATE ANY
GUSTY WINDS...RATHER JUST A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND THAT WILL BACK TO
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH THIS LIGHT WIND TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AND INLAND SOUTHERN TIER...WHILE REMAINING AROUND 40 NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORELINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE REMAINS LITTLE QUESTION THAT MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION BY THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE PROSPECTS FOR SNOW CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH. 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON FRIDAY THEN EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR THE
CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSLATE INTO STRONG
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST ON
FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER THE UNUSUAL NORTH
TO SOUTH TRACK WILL KEEP OUR REGION ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
ENSEMBLE 850MB TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS CLOSELY CLUSTERED FROM -1
TO -2C WHICH SHOULD BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE WITH WEAK LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A COMPLEX SURFACE MAP THIS
WEEKEND HOWEVER FOR OUR REGION THE BOTTOM LINE WILL BE QUITE SIMPLE
WITH A STRENGTHENING NE FLOW AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE CAUSE THE PRECIPITATION WILL
TRANSITION FROM THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO LIFT GENERATED
BY UPSLOPE AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT. CONSENSUS QPF CONTINUES TO BE LIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LARGELY REMAIN TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE
TO OUR EAST WHICH WILL FILTER IN COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL ALLOW SOME SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AWAY FROM THE LAKES. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AS DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS MAY BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM
COOLER AIR ALOFT...BUT EVENTUALLY THE DRY AIR SHOULD WIN OUT WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...FROM A COMBINATION OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPING.
HOWEVER...ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND ALTHOUGH 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW...NAM
BUFKIT SHOWS DRY AIR ABOVE -10C WHICH SUGGESTS A LIMITED DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH ZONE. MOISTURE MAY ONLY BE ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCED
STRATUS.

AS ADVERTISED...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S. THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP LOWS INTO
THE LOWER 30S NEAR THE LAKESHORES WITH UPPER 20S INLAND ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH THE EFFECTS OF
A DEEP COASTAL LOW SUNDAY...WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL
BE ENTERING A PERIOD OF BENIGN WEATHER AS A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES TRANSLATES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. COOL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS COOL AND CLOUDY ON SUNDAY AS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY...THE
REGION SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO THE
EAST COAST...OPENING UP THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO WARM SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW. ALAS THE MILD WEATHER WILL COME AT A PRICE AS WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL GENERATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.

THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS WE MOVE DEEPER INTO NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST AND THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS
IT LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A SHARP SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENTS TIGHTEN ACROSS THE
NATION`S MID-SECTION AS WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S. ENCOUNTERS MILDER PACIFIC AIR ADVECTING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE TOP OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
GREAT BASIN. TUESDAY COULD END UP BEING A VERY MILD DAY ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60S. 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A CONSENSUS TIMING OF TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL USHER IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FOR WEDNESDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH ITS PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...CIGS REMAIN WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET ON EITHER SIDE
OF MVFR THRESHOLDS AT ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA. TAF SITES NEAREST THE LAKES...KBUF/KIAG/KROC/KART...WILL
LIKELY SEE FREQUENT CHANGES BETWEEN VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LIGHT
WINDS AND TRAPPED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE MAINLY MVFR CIGS
AT ALL TAF SITES. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL REACH FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK AROUND 9-15Z TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MVFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING
LIKELY.
SATURDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH WET SNOW ON THE HIGHEST HILLS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED FOR WINDS AND WAVES ON LAKE
ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO TO FALL THIS MORNING. LATEST OBSERVATIONS ON
LAKE ONTARIO SUGGEST WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 3 FEET...AND
WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND DOWNWARD. GIVEN THESE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ON LAKE ONTARIO...THUS NO MORE ADVISORIES REMAIN AT THIS
TIME. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/WOOD
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...CHURCH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 301750
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
150 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED
AREAS OF CLOUDINESS INLAND FROM THE LAKES THROUGH THE DAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...USHERING IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG
WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIQUID...ALTHOUGH A FEW WET
SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN ON THE HILLS SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARMING TREND
IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING DISPLAYS TWO SHORTWAVES. THE FIRST
ONE IS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM OUR REGION TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND...AND MORE POTENT IS DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MANITOBA.

A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN ON IR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL LEAVE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TODAY FOR
OUR REGION. THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING OVER THE LAKESHORES...AND
THE NORTHERN NIAGARA FRONTIER TODAY.

UNDER THESE CLOUDS HIGHS TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 WITH MOST
AREAS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S THROUGH THE DAY.

OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY TODAY THE SECOND SHORTWAVE OVER
MANITOBA WILL DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THIS SURFACE LOW WILL PROVIDE A
BOUNDARY FOR WHICH SOUTHERLY...AND INCREASING MOISTURE FLOW WILL
PRODUCE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARDS
DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. AREAS FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.

THOUGH THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEEPENING AT THE
SURFACE...IT WILL NOT BE TO DEEP...WITH A CENTRAL SURFACE PRESSURE
REMAINING ABOVE 1000MB. THIS WILL NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH TO CREATE ANY
GUSTY WINDS...RATHER JUST A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND THAT WILL BACK TO
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH THIS LIGHT WIND TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AND INLAND SOUTHERN TIER...WHILE REMAINING AROUND 40 NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORELINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE REMAINS LITTLE QUESTION THAT MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION BY THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE PROSPECTS FOR SNOW CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH. 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON FRIDAY THEN EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR THE
CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSLATE INTO STRONG
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST ON
FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER THE UNUSUAL NORTH
TO SOUTH TRACK WILL KEEP OUR REGION ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
ENSEMBLE 850MB TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS CLOSELY CLUSTERED FROM -1
TO -2C WHICH SHOULD BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE WITH WEAK LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A COMPLEX SURFACE MAP THIS
WEEKEND HOWEVER FOR OUR REGION THE BOTTOM LINE WILL BE QUITE SIMPLE
WITH A STRENGTHENING NE FLOW AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE CAUSE THE PRECIPITATION WILL
TRANSITION FROM THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO LIFT GENERATED
BY UPSLOPE AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT. CONSENSUS QPF CONTINUES TO BE LIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LARGELY REMAIN TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE
TO OUR EAST WHICH WILL FILTER IN COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL ALLOW SOME SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AWAY FROM THE LAKES. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AS DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS MAY BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM
COOLER AIR ALOFT...BUT EVENTUALLY THE DRY AIR SHOULD WIN OUT WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...FROM A COMBINATION OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPING.
HOWEVER...ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND ALTHOUGH 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW...NAM
BUFKIT SHOWS DRY AIR ABOVE -10C WHICH SUGGESTS A LIMITED DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH ZONE. MOISTURE MAY ONLY BE ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCED
STRATUS.

AS ADVERTISED...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S. THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP LOWS INTO
THE LOWER 30S NEAR THE LAKESHORES WITH UPPER 20S INLAND ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH THE EFFECTS OF
A DEEP COASTAL LOW SUNDAY...WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL
BE ENTERING A PERIOD OF BENIGN WEATHER AS A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES TRANSLATES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. COOL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS COOL AND CLOUDY ON SUNDAY AS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY...THE
REGION SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO THE
EAST COAST...OPENING UP THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO WARM SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW. ALAS THE MILD WEATHER WILL COME AT A PRICE AS WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL GENERATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.

THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS WE MOVE DEEPER INTO NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST AND THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS
IT LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A SHARP SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENTS TIGHTEN ACROSS THE
NATION`S MID-SECTION AS WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S. ENCOUNTERS MILDER PACIFIC AIR ADVECTING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE TOP OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
GREAT BASIN. TUESDAY COULD END UP BEING A VERY MILD DAY ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60S. 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A CONSENSUS TIMING OF TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL USHER IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FOR WEDNESDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH ITS PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...CIGS REMAIN WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET ON EITHER SIDE
OF MVFR THRESHOLDS AT ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA. TAF SITES NEAREST THE LAKES...KBUF/KIAG/KROC/KART...WILL
LIKELY SEE FREQUENT CHANGES BETWEEN VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LIGHT
WINDS AND TRAPPED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE MAINLY MVFR CIGS
AT ALL TAF SITES. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL REACH FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK AROUND 9-15Z TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MVFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING
LIKELY.
SATURDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH WET SNOW ON THE HIGHEST HILLS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED FOR WINDS AND WAVES ON LAKE
ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO TO FALL THIS MORNING. LATEST OBSERVATIONS ON
LAKE ONTARIO SUGGEST WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 3 FEET...AND
WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND DOWNWARD. GIVEN THESE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ON LAKE ONTARIO...THUS NO MORE ADVISORIES REMAIN AT THIS
TIME. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/WOOD
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...CHURCH








000
FXUS61 KALY 301748
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
148 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1 PM... 12Z BUF AND ALB SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOWING A MOIST
LAYER BENEATH AN INVERSION AROUND 750 MB. RESULT IS A LARGE AREA
OF CLOUDINESS COVERING MOST OF NY STATE. HOWEVER DOWNSLOPING HAS
RESULTED IN SOME CLEARING IN THE HUDSON RIVER AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.
THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
IN THE VALLEY AND FARTHER EAST. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID 50S IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY... AND HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

UPDATED AT 1030 AM... LOT OF CLOUDS COVERING CENTRAL NY THIS
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 MB SHORT WAVE AND SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN BREAKING UP AS THEY DOWNSLOPE INTO THE MID AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER VT AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH SOME 40S OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

AS OF 630 AM...STLT PICS SHOW CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TODAY AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
THIS MORNING OVER THE SCHOHARIE AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS
BECAUSE CURRENT TEMPS WERE MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MISS THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAVE FORECAST 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CHILLY START TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND..BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED IN THE
LONG TERM.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT WITH WPC.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE H500 UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ERN CONUS.  SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC CYCLONE LOOKS TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR MINIMAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF PCPN...BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND WINDY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS.  BY SUNDAY...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN CYCLONE AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  BRISK N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND H850 TEMPS OF -4C TO -8C WILL MAY IT FEEL LIKE WINTER! EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO M40S IN THE
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  MONDAY...TEMPS CREEP CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER READINGS BUT STILL WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5
DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO L50S...THOUGH A FEW
U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN DACKS.  A WARM FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MON NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE
30S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A
MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.  IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN...H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +12C.  EXPECT
HIGHS TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS.  TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. SKIES
WILL BE BKN- 0VC WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 4-6 KFT THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH SCT STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS
TO 20 KTS... BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KALY 301748
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
148 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1 PM... 12Z BUF AND ALB SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOWING A MOIST
LAYER BENEATH AN INVERSION AROUND 750 MB. RESULT IS A LARGE AREA
OF CLOUDINESS COVERING MOST OF NY STATE. HOWEVER DOWNSLOPING HAS
RESULTED IN SOME CLEARING IN THE HUDSON RIVER AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.
THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
IN THE VALLEY AND FARTHER EAST. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID 50S IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY... AND HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

UPDATED AT 1030 AM... LOT OF CLOUDS COVERING CENTRAL NY THIS
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 MB SHORT WAVE AND SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN BREAKING UP AS THEY DOWNSLOPE INTO THE MID AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER VT AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH SOME 40S OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

AS OF 630 AM...STLT PICS SHOW CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TODAY AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
THIS MORNING OVER THE SCHOHARIE AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS
BECAUSE CURRENT TEMPS WERE MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MISS THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAVE FORECAST 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CHILLY START TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND..BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED IN THE
LONG TERM.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT WITH WPC.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE H500 UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ERN CONUS.  SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC CYCLONE LOOKS TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR MINIMAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF PCPN...BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND WINDY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS.  BY SUNDAY...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN CYCLONE AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  BRISK N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND H850 TEMPS OF -4C TO -8C WILL MAY IT FEEL LIKE WINTER! EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO M40S IN THE
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  MONDAY...TEMPS CREEP CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER READINGS BUT STILL WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5
DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO L50S...THOUGH A FEW
U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN DACKS.  A WARM FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MON NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE
30S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A
MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.  IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN...H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +12C.  EXPECT
HIGHS TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS.  TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. SKIES
WILL BE BKN- 0VC WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 4-6 KFT THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH SCT STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS
TO 20 KTS... BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KBTV 301744
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
144 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK ON
FRIDAY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH PREVAILING NW FLOW (AROUND 10 MPH).
THIN LAYER OF STRATOCU AND STRATUS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE...AND WILL
LIKELY HOLD IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS VCNTY
OF SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX NY COUNTY INTO RUTLAND COUNTY...BUT
MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON UPWARD BY A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WHERE SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S.
GENERALLY UPPER 40S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT THURSDAY...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...AS WIND FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AS WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

ON FRIDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY.
THUS...THIS TAKES THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THIS IS A CHANGE
FROM A FEW DAYS AGO WITH HAD THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR OVER OR
REGION. MODEL SHOWING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK...ESPECIALLY THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
ON SATURDAY...MODELS DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TAKE IT NORTHEAST WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL JUST HAVE LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S ON SATURDAY...WITH THE UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH HANDLING POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED DIGGING TROF AND
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRES ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. CONSENSUS SHOWS DEEP
FULL LATITUDE TROF ACRS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AT 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPING 50 TO 75 MILES EAST OF THE 40/70
BENCHMARK. THIS IS AN UNFAVORABLE TRACK FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
ACRS OUR CWA...AS BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WL BE EAST OF OUR
CWA...HOWEVER BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME MID LVL RH AND BACKSIDE
VORT SLIDING ACRS OUR CWA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS WL SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACRS
OUR CWA. STILL LOOKING AT A LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE
MTNS BY SUNDAY MORNING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN -7C AND -9C BY
12Z SUNDAY...ON BRISK NORTH WINDS. EXPECTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S
MTNS TO M30S/L40S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25
MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDS...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NE
CONUS...AS TROF LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS WL RESULT IN
RISING HGHTS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS
ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA...BUT VERY DRY AIR ALOFT.
THINKING LOWS WL RANGE FROM NEAR 20F SLK/COLDER VALLEYS TO NEAR
30S ACRS THE CPV. IF WINDS ARE LIGHTER THAN PROGGED...TEMPS COULD
FALL INTO THE TEENS AT OUR COLDER LOCATIONS. LLVL WAA RESULTS IN
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 0C BY 00Z TUES AND BTWN 2-4C BY
00Z WEDS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. HIGHS WL WARM INTO THE M/U 30S
MTNS TO M/U 40S VALLEYS ON MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT
SHARP INVERSION ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AS WARMING ALOFT OCCURS.
LOWS WL RANGE FROM M20S TO M30S ON MONDAY NIGHT...COLDEST TEMPS
WL BE ACRS THE NEK OF VT...WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE
SLV/DACKS. NEXT SYSTEM WL PRODUCE MORE CLOUDS ON TUESDAY WITH CHCS
FOR RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY BY LATE TUES INTO WEDS. TEMPS WITH
SOUTHWEST FLW WL WARM INTO THE U40S TO M50S FOR TUES/WEDS AND LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...CURRENTLY A GOOD DEAL OF STRATO-CUMULUS
ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH CEILINGS ARE PRIMARILY VFR -- EXCEPTION
IS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE IT WORKS OUT TO BE MVFR. WITH
CLOUD BASES RUNNING ABOUT 4000FT MSL, THAT MEANS SUMMITS ARE
OBSCURED IN THE CLOUDS. NO BIG CHANGES EXPECTED THE REST OF THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WE MAY SEE AREAS WHERE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME
THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT -- THIS IS MOST LIKELY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND EASTWARD. ANTICIPATE MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR SLK. NOT
LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION, AT LEAST NOTHING THAT
WOULD IMPACT VISIBILITIES. JUST TO NOTE THAT SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AT MASSENA LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS
POINT WILL KEEP THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST AS THINKING ENOUGH CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND TO MINIMIZE THE FOG FORMATION PROCESSES. HOWEVER
STRANGE THINGS CAN HAPPEN OUT IN MASSENA...

ON FRIDAY WE WILL AGAIN SEE CLOUDS THICKEN UP AND MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST, HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN VFR. COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AS WE APPROACH 18Z FRIDAY, BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS
POINT.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
18Z FRI-18Z SUN -- WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TURNING TO A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
18Z SUN-12Z TUES -- VFR. SURFACE WINDS MAY BE GUSTING OVER 20KTS
ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
12Z TUES ONWARD -- MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...NASH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301744
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
144 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK ON
FRIDAY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH PREVAILING NW FLOW (AROUND 10 MPH).
THIN LAYER OF STRATOCU AND STRATUS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE...AND WILL
LIKELY HOLD IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS VCNTY
OF SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX NY COUNTY INTO RUTLAND COUNTY...BUT
MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON UPWARD BY A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WHERE SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S.
GENERALLY UPPER 40S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT THURSDAY...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...AS WIND FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AS WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

ON FRIDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY.
THUS...THIS TAKES THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THIS IS A CHANGE
FROM A FEW DAYS AGO WITH HAD THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR OVER OR
REGION. MODEL SHOWING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK...ESPECIALLY THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
ON SATURDAY...MODELS DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TAKE IT NORTHEAST WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL JUST HAVE LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S ON SATURDAY...WITH THE UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH HANDLING POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED DIGGING TROF AND
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRES ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. CONSENSUS SHOWS DEEP
FULL LATITUDE TROF ACRS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AT 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPING 50 TO 75 MILES EAST OF THE 40/70
BENCHMARK. THIS IS AN UNFAVORABLE TRACK FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
ACRS OUR CWA...AS BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WL BE EAST OF OUR
CWA...HOWEVER BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME MID LVL RH AND BACKSIDE
VORT SLIDING ACRS OUR CWA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS WL SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACRS
OUR CWA. STILL LOOKING AT A LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE
MTNS BY SUNDAY MORNING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN -7C AND -9C BY
12Z SUNDAY...ON BRISK NORTH WINDS. EXPECTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S
MTNS TO M30S/L40S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25
MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDS...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NE
CONUS...AS TROF LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS WL RESULT IN
RISING HGHTS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS
ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA...BUT VERY DRY AIR ALOFT.
THINKING LOWS WL RANGE FROM NEAR 20F SLK/COLDER VALLEYS TO NEAR
30S ACRS THE CPV. IF WINDS ARE LIGHTER THAN PROGGED...TEMPS COULD
FALL INTO THE TEENS AT OUR COLDER LOCATIONS. LLVL WAA RESULTS IN
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 0C BY 00Z TUES AND BTWN 2-4C BY
00Z WEDS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. HIGHS WL WARM INTO THE M/U 30S
MTNS TO M/U 40S VALLEYS ON MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT
SHARP INVERSION ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AS WARMING ALOFT OCCURS.
LOWS WL RANGE FROM M20S TO M30S ON MONDAY NIGHT...COLDEST TEMPS
WL BE ACRS THE NEK OF VT...WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE
SLV/DACKS. NEXT SYSTEM WL PRODUCE MORE CLOUDS ON TUESDAY WITH CHCS
FOR RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY BY LATE TUES INTO WEDS. TEMPS WITH
SOUTHWEST FLW WL WARM INTO THE U40S TO M50S FOR TUES/WEDS AND LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...CURRENTLY A GOOD DEAL OF STRATO-CUMULUS
ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH CEILINGS ARE PRIMARILY VFR -- EXCEPTION
IS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE IT WORKS OUT TO BE MVFR. WITH
CLOUD BASES RUNNING ABOUT 4000FT MSL, THAT MEANS SUMMITS ARE
OBSCURED IN THE CLOUDS. NO BIG CHANGES EXPECTED THE REST OF THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WE MAY SEE AREAS WHERE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME
THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT -- THIS IS MOST LIKELY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND EASTWARD. ANTICIPATE MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR SLK. NOT
LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION, AT LEAST NOTHING THAT
WOULD IMPACT VISIBILITIES. JUST TO NOTE THAT SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AT MASSENA LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS
POINT WILL KEEP THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST AS THINKING ENOUGH CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND TO MINIMIZE THE FOG FORMATION PROCESSES. HOWEVER
STRANGE THINGS CAN HAPPEN OUT IN MASSENA...

ON FRIDAY WE WILL AGAIN SEE CLOUDS THICKEN UP AND MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST, HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN VFR. COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AS WE APPROACH 18Z FRIDAY, BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS
POINT.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
18Z FRI-18Z SUN -- WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TURNING TO A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
18Z SUN-12Z TUES -- VFR. SURFACE WINDS MAY BE GUSTING OVER 20KTS
ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
12Z TUES ONWARD -- MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...NASH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301731
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
131 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK ON
FRIDAY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1023 AM EDT THURSDAY...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING AS WV/IR SATELLITE INDICATE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE SUPPORTED A FEW POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER TODAY BEFORE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN LATER TONIGHT. AS FAR AS THE TEMPS AND WX
FORECAST, THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS ON TRACK AND SO THE ONLY
TWEAKS WERE TO REFRESH THE 11AM THROUGH 1PM FORECAST BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 600 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP SHOWING SOME RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE UPDATED THE ZONE
FORECASTS FOR THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...NO
CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT THURSDAY...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...AS WIND FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AS WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

ON FRIDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY.
THUS...THIS TAKES THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THIS IS A CHANGE
FROM A FEW DAYS AGO WITH HAD THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR OVER OR
REGION. MODEL SHOWING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK...ESPECIALLY THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
ON SATURDAY...MODELS DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TAKE IT NORTHEAST WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL JUST HAVE LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S ON SATURDAY...WITH THE UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH HANDLING POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED DIGGING TROF AND
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRES ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. CONSENSUS SHOWS DEEP
FULL LATITUDE TROF ACRS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AT 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPING 50 TO 75 MILES EAST OF THE 40/70
BENCHMARK. THIS IS AN UNFAVORABLE TRACK FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
ACRS OUR CWA...AS BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WL BE EAST OF OUR
CWA...HOWEVER BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME MID LVL RH AND BACKSIDE
VORT SLIDING ACRS OUR CWA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS WL SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACRS
OUR CWA. STILL LOOKING AT A LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE
MTNS BY SUNDAY MORNING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN -7C AND -9C BY
12Z SUNDAY...ON BRISK NORTH WINDS. EXPECTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S
MTNS TO M30S/L40S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25
MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDS...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NE
CONUS...AS TROF LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS WL RESULT IN
RISING HGHTS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS
ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA...BUT VERY DRY AIR ALOFT.
THINKING LOWS WL RANGE FROM NEAR 20F SLK/COLDER VALLEYS TO NEAR
30S ACRS THE CPV. IF WINDS ARE LIGHTER THAN PROGGED...TEMPS COULD
FALL INTO THE TEENS AT OUR COLDER LOCATIONS. LLVL WAA RESULTS IN
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 0C BY 00Z TUES AND BTWN 2-4C BY
00Z WEDS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. HIGHS WL WARM INTO THE M/U 30S
MTNS TO M/U 40S VALLEYS ON MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT
SHARP INVERSION ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AS WARMING ALOFT OCCURS.
LOWS WL RANGE FROM M20S TO M30S ON MONDAY NIGHT...COLDEST TEMPS
WL BE ACRS THE NEK OF VT...WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE
SLV/DACKS. NEXT SYSTEM WL PRODUCE MORE CLOUDS ON TUESDAY WITH CHCS
FOR RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY BY LATE TUES INTO WEDS. TEMPS WITH
SOUTHWEST FLW WL WARM INTO THE U40S TO M50S FOR TUES/WEDS AND LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...CURRENTLY A GOOD DEAL OF STRATO-CUMULUS
ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH CEILINGS ARE PRIMARILY VFR -- EXCEPTION
IS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE IT WORKS OUT TO BE MVFR. WITH
CLOUD BASES RUNNING ABOUT 4000FT MSL, THAT MEANS SUMMITS ARE
OBSCURED IN THE CLOUDS. NO BIG CHANGES EXPECTED THE REST OF THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WE MAY SEE AREAS WHERE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME
THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT -- THIS IS MOST LIKELY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND EASTWARD. ANTICIPATE MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR SLK. NOT
LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION, AT LEAST NOTHING THAT
WOULD IMPACT VISIBILITIES. JUST TO NOTE THAT SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AT MASSENA LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS
POINT WILL KEEP THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST AS THINKING ENOUGH CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND TO MINIMIZE THE FOG FORMATION PROCESSES. HOWEVER
STRANGE THINGS CAN HAPPEN OUT IN MASSENA...

ON FRIDAY WE WILL AGAIN SEE CLOUDS THICKEN UP AND MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST, HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN VFR. COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AS WE APPROACH 18Z FRIDAY, BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS
POINT.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
18Z FRI-18Z SUN -- WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TURNING TO A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
18Z SUN-12Z TUES -- VFR. SURFACE WINDS MAY BE GUSTING OVER 20KTS
ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
12Z TUES ONWARD -- MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...NASH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301731
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
131 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK ON
FRIDAY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1023 AM EDT THURSDAY...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING AS WV/IR SATELLITE INDICATE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE SUPPORTED A FEW POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER TODAY BEFORE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN LATER TONIGHT. AS FAR AS THE TEMPS AND WX
FORECAST, THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS ON TRACK AND SO THE ONLY
TWEAKS WERE TO REFRESH THE 11AM THROUGH 1PM FORECAST BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 600 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP SHOWING SOME RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE UPDATED THE ZONE
FORECASTS FOR THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...NO
CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT THURSDAY...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...AS WIND FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AS WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

ON FRIDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY.
THUS...THIS TAKES THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THIS IS A CHANGE
FROM A FEW DAYS AGO WITH HAD THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR OVER OR
REGION. MODEL SHOWING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK...ESPECIALLY THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
ON SATURDAY...MODELS DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TAKE IT NORTHEAST WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL JUST HAVE LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S ON SATURDAY...WITH THE UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH HANDLING POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED DIGGING TROF AND
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRES ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. CONSENSUS SHOWS DEEP
FULL LATITUDE TROF ACRS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AT 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPING 50 TO 75 MILES EAST OF THE 40/70
BENCHMARK. THIS IS AN UNFAVORABLE TRACK FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
ACRS OUR CWA...AS BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WL BE EAST OF OUR
CWA...HOWEVER BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME MID LVL RH AND BACKSIDE
VORT SLIDING ACRS OUR CWA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS WL SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACRS
OUR CWA. STILL LOOKING AT A LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE
MTNS BY SUNDAY MORNING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN -7C AND -9C BY
12Z SUNDAY...ON BRISK NORTH WINDS. EXPECTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S
MTNS TO M30S/L40S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25
MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDS...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NE
CONUS...AS TROF LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS WL RESULT IN
RISING HGHTS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS
ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA...BUT VERY DRY AIR ALOFT.
THINKING LOWS WL RANGE FROM NEAR 20F SLK/COLDER VALLEYS TO NEAR
30S ACRS THE CPV. IF WINDS ARE LIGHTER THAN PROGGED...TEMPS COULD
FALL INTO THE TEENS AT OUR COLDER LOCATIONS. LLVL WAA RESULTS IN
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 0C BY 00Z TUES AND BTWN 2-4C BY
00Z WEDS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. HIGHS WL WARM INTO THE M/U 30S
MTNS TO M/U 40S VALLEYS ON MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT
SHARP INVERSION ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AS WARMING ALOFT OCCURS.
LOWS WL RANGE FROM M20S TO M30S ON MONDAY NIGHT...COLDEST TEMPS
WL BE ACRS THE NEK OF VT...WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE
SLV/DACKS. NEXT SYSTEM WL PRODUCE MORE CLOUDS ON TUESDAY WITH CHCS
FOR RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY BY LATE TUES INTO WEDS. TEMPS WITH
SOUTHWEST FLW WL WARM INTO THE U40S TO M50S FOR TUES/WEDS AND LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...CURRENTLY A GOOD DEAL OF STRATO-CUMULUS
ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH CEILINGS ARE PRIMARILY VFR -- EXCEPTION
IS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE IT WORKS OUT TO BE MVFR. WITH
CLOUD BASES RUNNING ABOUT 4000FT MSL, THAT MEANS SUMMITS ARE
OBSCURED IN THE CLOUDS. NO BIG CHANGES EXPECTED THE REST OF THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WE MAY SEE AREAS WHERE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME
THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT -- THIS IS MOST LIKELY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND EASTWARD. ANTICIPATE MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR SLK. NOT
LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION, AT LEAST NOTHING THAT
WOULD IMPACT VISIBILITIES. JUST TO NOTE THAT SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AT MASSENA LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS
POINT WILL KEEP THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST AS THINKING ENOUGH CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND TO MINIMIZE THE FOG FORMATION PROCESSES. HOWEVER
STRANGE THINGS CAN HAPPEN OUT IN MASSENA...

ON FRIDAY WE WILL AGAIN SEE CLOUDS THICKEN UP AND MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST, HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN VFR. COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AS WE APPROACH 18Z FRIDAY, BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS
POINT.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
18Z FRI-18Z SUN -- WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TURNING TO A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
18Z SUN-12Z TUES -- VFR. SURFACE WINDS MAY BE GUSTING OVER 20KTS
ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
12Z TUES ONWARD -- MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...NASH




000
FXUS61 KBGM 301720
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
120 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END LATE THIS MORNING AND DRY
WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT OUR AREA STARTING
FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FLURRY OR TWO MAY OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT
AS COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN
SUNDAY AND LAST THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN DECENT SHAPE...SO JUST
MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL/MODEL
DATA.

VSBL SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY SOLID MASS OF SC CLDS OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA LATE THIS MRNG. LAKE-EFFECT PROCESSES (15-16C LAKE/850 MB
DIFFERENTIAL)...LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE...AND AN UPSLOPE NWLY
FLOW REGIME WILL LARGELY CONTRIBUTE TO KEEPING THESE CLDS IN PLACE
THIS AFTN...AND LIKELY RIGHT INTO THIS EVE AS WELL. GIVEN THAT A
MID-LVL S/WV IS IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING CNY/NE PA ATTM...WE
SHOULD GET INTO SOME SINKING MOTION ALOFT THIS AFTN BEHIND THIS
FEATURE...AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW BRIEF BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
ACRS THE TWIN TIERS. BUT AGAIN...IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT
CLDS WILL HAVE THE UPPER HAND.

ISOLD -SHRA MAY CONTINUE TO DOT AREAS SE OF LK ONT INTO EARLY
AFTN...BUT IN GENERAL...THESE SHWRS WILL BE ON THE DECLINE WITH TIME.

OUR EXISTING HIGH TEMP FCST (MID 40S-LWR 50S) LOOKS GOOD...BASED
ON RGNL 12Z SNDGS...AND EXPECTED SLGT LOW-LVL CAA INTO THIS AFTN.

PREV DISC... 230 AM EDT UPDATE... SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
HAVE PRETTY MUCH ENDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY
THIS MORNING AS COOLER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE
REGION. 700MB TEMPS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ARE
AROUND AROUND NEGATIVE 7 OR BELOW. THE DECREASE IN THE TEMPS ALOFT
HAVE ALLOWED THE INVERSION TO BECOME STRONGER. THE STRENGTHENED
INVERSION RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SINGLE BAND OF LAKE
EFFECT INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER ONONDAGA... ONEIDA... AND MADISON
COUNTY THIS MORNING. THE MEAN FLOW OVER THE LAKE CURRENTLY IS
AROUND 280-290 DEGREES. THE MEAN FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT 280-290
DEGREES THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z THIS MORNING. AFTER 10Z THE MEAN FLOW
WILL START TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF 300 DEGREES. THIS WILL RESULT
IN TRANSITION OF THE SINGLE BAND TO BECOME SCATTERED LIKE IN
NATURE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

DUE TO CAA EARLY THIS MORNING... TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA WILL CONTINUE
TO FALL AND REACH THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNRISE. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS MORNING.

BY 15Z THIS MORNING THE DEPTH UNDER THE INVERSION REALLY STARTS TO
DECREASE... THUS IF LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE AFTER 15Z OVER CENTRAL
NY... EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE VERY LIGHT IF NOT SPRINKLES. BY 18Z THE
INVERSION WILL DISSIPATE AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL END.

THE REST OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS WE LACK ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE ALOFT AND BC WE HAVE WEAK FORCING ALOFT. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON IF NOT OVERCAST.
BY 00Z EXPECT SOME CLEARING OVER THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA... BUT
DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO LAST LONG AS A STRONG UPPR LVL LOW WILL BE
APPROACHING RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE... THUS MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES WILL RETURN BY LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE UPPR 40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
BY FRIDAY MORNING THE HIGHLY TALKED ABOUT AND WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER
LVL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER MI AND THE SFC LOW WILL BE
JUST NORTH OF OHIO. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE ENERGY FROM THIS TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
TRANSFER FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH IMPACTING A COASTAL SYSTEM. THIS
COASTAL SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON OUR CWA.
EXPECT THE COASTAL SYSTEM TO STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST SO THAT WE MISS
THE BRUNT OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM. HOWEVER... THIS DOES NOT MEAN WE
WILL HAVE QUIET WEATHER.

THE SFC LOW THAT IS LOCATED NORTH OF OHIO WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND BECOME WASHED OUT OVER THE REGION.
THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE CWA. EVEN
THOUGH WE MISS THE BRUNT OF THE SYSTEM WILL WILL STILL BE
IMPACTED DUE TO STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION. THE CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL START IN THE FAR WEST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST DURING THE DAY AND
PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE CHANCE FOR SNOW BECOMES LESS AND LESS WITH EACH ADDITIONAL
GUIDANCE RUN AS TEMPS JUST SEEM TO BE TO WARM. BY THE TIME THE
AIRMASS BECOMES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW GROWTH THE CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL END.

TEMPS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPR
40S TO LOW 50S. THE COLDER AIRMASS DOES NOT MOVE INTO THE REGION
TILL SUNDAY. CAN NOT 100% RULE OUT A MIX OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS SAT NIGHT... BUT CHANCES FOR THAT LOOKS SLIM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1 PM THU UPDATE... DEEP UPR-LVL TROUGH ALG THE EAST COAST AT THE
START OF THE PD...WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING AWAY TO THE NE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ITS WAKE...SFC RIDGING...AND ALSO S/WV RIDGING
ALOFT...WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY WX AND MODERATING TEMPS MON-TUE.

OUR NEXT SHOT AT PCPN WILL LIKELY COME TWDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WHEN AN UPR-LVL TROUGH WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE W...ALG WITH A SFC FRONTAL
COMPLEX. AS A RESULT...WE`VE INSERTED SCTD SHWRS STARTING LATER
TUE NGT...THEN PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST WED.

AS ALLUDED TO ABV...READINGS WILL BE ON THE UPSWING NEXT WEEK...WITH
DAILY HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z THU UPDATE... A PERSISTENT SC DECK WILL STAY WITH US THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY THIS EVE...ALTHOUGH AT MOST SITES CIG BASES WILL
REMAIN IN THE VFR CAT. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS KBGM...WHERE OCNL MVFR
CIGS CAN STILL BE ANTICIPATED THROUGH ABT 21Z.

THE LWR CLOUD DECK SHOULD HAVE A TENDENCY TO SLOWLY SCT OUT LTR
TNT AND EARLY FRI...WITH MID AND HIGH-LVL CLDNS COMING IN OVER THE
TOP. THE UPSHOT HERE IS THAT VFR SHOULD BE MAINTAINED.

NW SFC WINDS 8-12 KT THIS AFTN...WILL BECOME LGT OVERNIGHT...THEN
PICK UP A BIT OUT OF THE SE ON FRI AT 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT-SAT NGT...OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN-MON...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH/MLJ
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ







000
FXUS61 KALY 301705
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
105 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1 PM... 12Z BUF AND ALB SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOWING A MOIST
LAYER BENEATH AN INVERSION AROUND 750 MB. RESULT IS A LARGE AREA
OF CLOUDINESS COVERING MOST OF NY STATE. HOWEVER DOWNSLOPING HAS
RESULTED IN SOME CLEARING IN THE HUDSON RIVER AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.
THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
IN THE VALLEY AND FARTHER EAST. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID 50S IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY... AND HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

UPDATED AT 1030 AM... LOT OF CLOUDS COVERING CENTRAL NY THIS
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 MB SHORT WAVE AND SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN BREAKING UP AS THEY DOWNSLOPE INTO THE MID AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER VT AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH SOME 40S OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

AS OF 630 AM...STLT PICS SHOW CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TODAY AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
THIS MORNING OVER THE SCHOHARIE AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS
BECAUSE CURRENT TEMPS WERE MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MISS THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAVE FORECAST 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CHILLY START TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND..BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED IN THE
LONG TERM.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT WITH WPC.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE H500 UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ERN CONUS.  SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC CYCLONE LOOKS TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR MINIMAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF PCPN...BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND WINDY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS.  BY SUNDAY...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN CYCLONE AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  BRISK N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND H850 TEMPS OF -4C TO -8C WILL MAY IT FEEL LIKE WINTER! EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO M40S IN THE
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  MONDAY...TEMPS CREEP CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER READINGS BUT STILL WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5
DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO L50S...THOUGH A FEW
U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN DACKS.  A WARM FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MON NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE
30S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A
MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.  IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN...H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +12C.  EXPECT
HIGHS TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS.  TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY...AS A SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF
WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS IN THE 6-8 KFT AGL RANGE LOWERING TO 4-6
KFT BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
KPOU WHERE SOME MVFR MIST WILL LINGER FORMA FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL
14Z.  EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN
START TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME SCT CUMULUS
AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS AROUND TONIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE TO
4-8 KTS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AT 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KALY 301705
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
105 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1 PM... 12Z BUF AND ALB SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOWING A MOIST
LAYER BENEATH AN INVERSION AROUND 750 MB. RESULT IS A LARGE AREA
OF CLOUDINESS COVERING MOST OF NY STATE. HOWEVER DOWNSLOPING HAS
RESULTED IN SOME CLEARING IN THE HUDSON RIVER AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.
THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
IN THE VALLEY AND FARTHER EAST. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID 50S IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY... AND HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

UPDATED AT 1030 AM... LOT OF CLOUDS COVERING CENTRAL NY THIS
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 MB SHORT WAVE AND SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN BREAKING UP AS THEY DOWNSLOPE INTO THE MID AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER VT AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH SOME 40S OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

AS OF 630 AM...STLT PICS SHOW CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TODAY AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
THIS MORNING OVER THE SCHOHARIE AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS
BECAUSE CURRENT TEMPS WERE MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MISS THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAVE FORECAST 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CHILLY START TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND..BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED IN THE
LONG TERM.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT WITH WPC.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE H500 UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ERN CONUS.  SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC CYCLONE LOOKS TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR MINIMAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF PCPN...BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND WINDY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS.  BY SUNDAY...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN CYCLONE AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  BRISK N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND H850 TEMPS OF -4C TO -8C WILL MAY IT FEEL LIKE WINTER! EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO M40S IN THE
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  MONDAY...TEMPS CREEP CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER READINGS BUT STILL WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5
DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO L50S...THOUGH A FEW
U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN DACKS.  A WARM FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MON NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE
30S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A
MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.  IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN...H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +12C.  EXPECT
HIGHS TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS.  TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY...AS A SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF
WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS IN THE 6-8 KFT AGL RANGE LOWERING TO 4-6
KFT BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
KPOU WHERE SOME MVFR MIST WILL LINGER FORMA FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL
14Z.  EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN
START TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME SCT CUMULUS
AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS AROUND TONIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE TO
4-8 KTS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AT 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 301651
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1251 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END LATE THIS MORNING AND DRY
WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT OUR AREA STARTING
FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FLURRY OR TWO MAY OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT
AS COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN
SUNDAY AND LAST THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN DECENT SHAPE...SO JUST
MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL/MODEL
DATA.

VSBL SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY SOLID MASS OF SC CLDS OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA LATE THIS MRNG. LAKE-EFFECT PROCESSES (15-16C LAKE/850 MB
DIFFERENTIAL)...LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE...AND AN UPSLOPE NWLY
FLOW REGIME WILL LARGELY CONTRIBUTE TO KEEPING THESE CLDS IN PLACE
THIS AFTN...AND LIKELY RIGHT INTO THIS EVE AS WELL. GIVEN THAT A
MID-LVL S/WV IS IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING CNY/NE PA ATTM...WE
SHOULD GET INTO SOME SINKING MOTION ALOFT THIS AFTN BEHIND THIS
FEATURE...AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW BRIEF BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
ACRS THE TWIN TIERS. BUT AGAIN...IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT
CLDS WILL HAVE THE UPPER HAND.

ISOLD -SHRA MAY CONTINUE TO DOT AREAS SE OF LK ONT INTO EARLY
AFTN...BUT IN GENERAL...THESE SHWRS WILL BE ON THE DECLINE WITH TIME.

OUR EXISTING HIGH TEMP FCST (MID 40S-LWR 50S) LOOKS GOOD...BASED
ON RGNL 12Z SNDGS...AND EXPECTED SLGT LOW-LVL CAA INTO THIS AFTN.

PREV DISC... 230 AM EDT UPDATE... SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
HAVE PRETTY MUCH ENDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY
THIS MORNING AS COOLER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE
REGION. 700MB TEMPS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ARE
AROUND AROUND NEGATIVE 7 OR BELOW. THE DECREASE IN THE TEMPS ALOFT
HAVE ALLOWED THE INVERSION TO BECOME STRONGER. THE STRENGTHENED
INVERSION RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SINGLE BAND OF LAKE
EFFECT INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER ONONDAGA... ONEIDA... AND MADISON
COUNTY THIS MORNING. THE MEAN FLOW OVER THE LAKE CURRENTLY IS
AROUND 280-290 DEGREES. THE MEAN FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT 280-290
DEGREES THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z THIS MORNING. AFTER 10Z THE MEAN FLOW
WILL START TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF 300 DEGREES. THIS WILL RESULT
IN TRANSITION OF THE SINGLE BAND TO BECOME SCATTERED LIKE IN
NATURE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

DUE TO CAA EARLY THIS MORNING... TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA WILL CONTINUE
TO FALL AND REACH THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNRISE. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS MORNING.

BY 15Z THIS MORNING THE DEPTH UNDER THE INVERSION REALLY STARTS TO
DECREASE... THUS IF LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE AFTER 15Z OVER CENTRAL
NY... EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE VERY LIGHT IF NOT SPRINKLES. BY 18Z THE
INVERSION WILL DISSIPATE AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL END.

THE REST OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS WE LACK ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE ALOFT AND BC WE HAVE WEAK FORCING ALOFT. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON IF NOT OVERCAST.
BY 00Z EXPECT SOME CLEARING OVER THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA... BUT
DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO LAST LONG AS A STRONG UPPR LVL LOW WILL BE
APPROACHING RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE... THUS MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES WILL RETURN BY LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE UPPR 40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
BY FRIDAY MORNING THE HIGHLY TALKED ABOUT AND WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER
LVL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER MI AND THE SFC LOW WILL BE
JUST NORTH OF OHIO. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE ENERGY FROM THIS TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
TRANSFER FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH IMPACTING A COASTAL SYSTEM. THIS
COASTAL SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON OUR CWA.
EXPECT THE COASTAL SYSTEM TO STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST SO THAT WE MISS
THE BRUNT OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM. HOWEVER... THIS DOES NOT MEAN WE
WILL HAVE QUIET WEATHER.

THE SFC LOW THAT IS LOCATED NORTH OF OHIO WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND BECOME WASHED OUT OVER THE REGION.
THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE CWA. EVEN
THOUGH WE MISS THE BRUNT OF THE SYSTEM WILL WILL STILL BE
IMPACTED DUE TO STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION. THE CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL START IN THE FAR WEST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST DURING THE DAY AND
PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE CHANCE FOR SNOW BECOMES LESS AND LESS WITH EACH ADDITIONAL
GUIDANCE RUN AS TEMPS JUST SEEM TO BE TO WARM. BY THE TIME THE
AIRMASS BECOMES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW GROWTH THE CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL END.

TEMPS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPR
40S TO LOW 50S. THE COLDER AIRMASS DOES NOT MOVE INTO THE REGION
TILL SUNDAY. CAN NOT 100% RULE OUT A MIX OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS SAT NIGHT... BUT CHANCES FOR THAT LOOKS SLIM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1 PM THU UPDATE... DEEP UPR-LVL TROUGH ALG THE EAST COAST AT THE
START OF THE PD...WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING AWAY TO THE NE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ITS WAKE...SFC RIDGING...AND ALSO S/WV RIDGING
ALOFT...WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY WX AND MODERATING TEMPS MON-TUE.

OUR NEXT SHOT AT PCPN WILL LIKELY COME TWDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WHEN AN UPR-LVL TROUGH WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE W...ALG WITH A SFC FRONTAL
COMPLEX. AS A RESULT...WE`VE INSERTED SCTD SHWRS STARTING LATER
TUE NGT...THEN PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST WED.

AS ALLUDED TO ABV...READINGS WILL BE ON THE UPSWING NEXT WEEK...WITH
DAILY HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS THROUGH
THIS MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE NYS TERMINALS. AT KELM/KAVP, CIGS
WILL REMAIN AROUND 4K FT. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
ALSO OCCUR AT KRME/KSYR. BY EARLY AFTERNOON CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO
LOW VFR EXCEPT AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS KITH/KBGM WHERE MVFR MAY
STILL PERSIST. OVERNIGHT, WEAKENING FLOW WILL ALLOW CIGS TO REMAIN
VFR.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AM...VFR.

FRI PM THROUGH SAT...RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN AND MON...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH/MLJ
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 301651
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1251 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END LATE THIS MORNING AND DRY
WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT OUR AREA STARTING
FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FLURRY OR TWO MAY OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT
AS COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN
SUNDAY AND LAST THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN DECENT SHAPE...SO JUST
MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL/MODEL
DATA.

VSBL SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY SOLID MASS OF SC CLDS OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA LATE THIS MRNG. LAKE-EFFECT PROCESSES (15-16C LAKE/850 MB
DIFFERENTIAL)...LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE...AND AN UPSLOPE NWLY
FLOW REGIME WILL LARGELY CONTRIBUTE TO KEEPING THESE CLDS IN PLACE
THIS AFTN...AND LIKELY RIGHT INTO THIS EVE AS WELL. GIVEN THAT A
MID-LVL S/WV IS IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING CNY/NE PA ATTM...WE
SHOULD GET INTO SOME SINKING MOTION ALOFT THIS AFTN BEHIND THIS
FEATURE...AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW BRIEF BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
ACRS THE TWIN TIERS. BUT AGAIN...IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT
CLDS WILL HAVE THE UPPER HAND.

ISOLD -SHRA MAY CONTINUE TO DOT AREAS SE OF LK ONT INTO EARLY
AFTN...BUT IN GENERAL...THESE SHWRS WILL BE ON THE DECLINE WITH TIME.

OUR EXISTING HIGH TEMP FCST (MID 40S-LWR 50S) LOOKS GOOD...BASED
ON RGNL 12Z SNDGS...AND EXPECTED SLGT LOW-LVL CAA INTO THIS AFTN.

PREV DISC... 230 AM EDT UPDATE... SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
HAVE PRETTY MUCH ENDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY
THIS MORNING AS COOLER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE
REGION. 700MB TEMPS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ARE
AROUND AROUND NEGATIVE 7 OR BELOW. THE DECREASE IN THE TEMPS ALOFT
HAVE ALLOWED THE INVERSION TO BECOME STRONGER. THE STRENGTHENED
INVERSION RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SINGLE BAND OF LAKE
EFFECT INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER ONONDAGA... ONEIDA... AND MADISON
COUNTY THIS MORNING. THE MEAN FLOW OVER THE LAKE CURRENTLY IS
AROUND 280-290 DEGREES. THE MEAN FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT 280-290
DEGREES THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z THIS MORNING. AFTER 10Z THE MEAN FLOW
WILL START TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF 300 DEGREES. THIS WILL RESULT
IN TRANSITION OF THE SINGLE BAND TO BECOME SCATTERED LIKE IN
NATURE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

DUE TO CAA EARLY THIS MORNING... TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA WILL CONTINUE
TO FALL AND REACH THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNRISE. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS MORNING.

BY 15Z THIS MORNING THE DEPTH UNDER THE INVERSION REALLY STARTS TO
DECREASE... THUS IF LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE AFTER 15Z OVER CENTRAL
NY... EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE VERY LIGHT IF NOT SPRINKLES. BY 18Z THE
INVERSION WILL DISSIPATE AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL END.

THE REST OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS WE LACK ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE ALOFT AND BC WE HAVE WEAK FORCING ALOFT. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON IF NOT OVERCAST.
BY 00Z EXPECT SOME CLEARING OVER THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA... BUT
DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO LAST LONG AS A STRONG UPPR LVL LOW WILL BE
APPROACHING RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE... THUS MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES WILL RETURN BY LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE UPPR 40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
BY FRIDAY MORNING THE HIGHLY TALKED ABOUT AND WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER
LVL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER MI AND THE SFC LOW WILL BE
JUST NORTH OF OHIO. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE ENERGY FROM THIS TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
TRANSFER FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH IMPACTING A COASTAL SYSTEM. THIS
COASTAL SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON OUR CWA.
EXPECT THE COASTAL SYSTEM TO STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST SO THAT WE MISS
THE BRUNT OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM. HOWEVER... THIS DOES NOT MEAN WE
WILL HAVE QUIET WEATHER.

THE SFC LOW THAT IS LOCATED NORTH OF OHIO WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND BECOME WASHED OUT OVER THE REGION.
THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE CWA. EVEN
THOUGH WE MISS THE BRUNT OF THE SYSTEM WILL WILL STILL BE
IMPACTED DUE TO STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION. THE CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL START IN THE FAR WEST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST DURING THE DAY AND
PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE CHANCE FOR SNOW BECOMES LESS AND LESS WITH EACH ADDITIONAL
GUIDANCE RUN AS TEMPS JUST SEEM TO BE TO WARM. BY THE TIME THE
AIRMASS BECOMES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW GROWTH THE CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL END.

TEMPS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPR
40S TO LOW 50S. THE COLDER AIRMASS DOES NOT MOVE INTO THE REGION
TILL SUNDAY. CAN NOT 100% RULE OUT A MIX OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS SAT NIGHT... BUT CHANCES FOR THAT LOOKS SLIM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1 PM THU UPDATE... DEEP UPR-LVL TROUGH ALG THE EAST COAST AT THE
START OF THE PD...WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING AWAY TO THE NE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ITS WAKE...SFC RIDGING...AND ALSO S/WV RIDGING
ALOFT...WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY WX AND MODERATING TEMPS MON-TUE.

OUR NEXT SHOT AT PCPN WILL LIKELY COME TWDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WHEN AN UPR-LVL TROUGH WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE W...ALG WITH A SFC FRONTAL
COMPLEX. AS A RESULT...WE`VE INSERTED SCTD SHWRS STARTING LATER
TUE NGT...THEN PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST WED.

AS ALLUDED TO ABV...READINGS WILL BE ON THE UPSWING NEXT WEEK...WITH
DAILY HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS THROUGH
THIS MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE NYS TERMINALS. AT KELM/KAVP, CIGS
WILL REMAIN AROUND 4K FT. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
ALSO OCCUR AT KRME/KSYR. BY EARLY AFTERNOON CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO
LOW VFR EXCEPT AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS KITH/KBGM WHERE MVFR MAY
STILL PERSIST. OVERNIGHT, WEAKENING FLOW WILL ALLOW CIGS TO REMAIN
VFR.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AM...VFR.

FRI PM THROUGH SAT...RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN AND MON...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH/MLJ
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KOKX 301621
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1221 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY...THEN TRACKS
NORTHEAST TO EAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE A
SECONDARY LOW FORMS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY...THEN
TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS STORM THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATES ON LATEST T/TD TRENDS...AND CLOUDS. PASSAGE OF 700-500
HPA TROUGH AXIS WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED-BROKEN CLOUDS. DOWNSLOPE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR.

LATEST HOURLY GUIDANCE IN LINE WITH FORECAST HIGHS. EXPECT HIGHS
TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A 850-500 HPA SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE PROMOTING MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. AS A RESULT...HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS LOWER OF
MET/MAV/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS. NOT
QUITE CERTAIN ENOUGH OF A COMPLETELY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS TO
GO COLDER AT THIS TIME. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NNW FROM COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF
THE VA/NC COAST FRIDAY TOWARDS LONG ISLAND. THIS COUPLED WITH A
PASSING WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WARRANTS INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR -SHRA OVER
MAINLY LONG ISLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGIZES A SURFACE LOW EMERGING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS STRENGTHEN THIS STORM AS IT HEADS
NE...PASSING SE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH FIRST BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AT LEAST CHANCE POPS REMAIN ON SATURDAY
WITH SOME MID LEVEL LIFT...ALTHOUGH MODEL QPF OUTPUT SUGGESTS
THAT COASTAL AREAS WARRANT LIKELY POPS...BEING CLOSER TO THE
STORM CENTER. CHANCES OF RAINFALL THEN DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE STORM SHIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA...WITH DRY WEATHER
BY SUNDAY MORNING.

THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST AN ALL RAIN EVENT. BY THE TIME FREEZING
LEVELS AND WET BULB ZEROES LOWER ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW...PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ENDED OR WILL JUST ABOUT TO
END. THIS WOULD BE THE CASE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CITY. WITH SUCH LIMITED COVERAGE OF A LOW
PROBABILITY EVENT...HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF SNOW FROM THE
GRIDS.

WINDS WILL END UP BEING THE BIGGER STORY...AND WILL BE AT THEIR
STRONGEST FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COULD
GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT SOME POINT DURING THIS
PERIOD...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AVERAGING AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND 30 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE GROWING SEASON THEN PROBABLY ENDS
FOR MORE OF THE ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE CITY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. TEMPS THEN BEGIN THEIR CLIMB BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL ON MONDAY...BEFORE REACHING NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY
WITH A SW FLOW.

NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THEN ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A WARM FRONT PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE METRO TODAY. LOW PRES BEGINS TO DEVELOP S
OF THE REGION FRI.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

MAINLY NW WINDS AT OR BELOW 10KT. SOME BACKING TO THE WNW THIS
AFTN...ESPECIALLY S COASTS. DIRECTION VEERS TO THE N OVERNIGHT.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC
TODAY...POSSIBLY WAVERING BETWEEN 290 AND 310 MAGNETIC BETWEEN 18Z
AND 23Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC
TODAY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC
TODAY...POSSIBLY WAVERING BETWEEN 290 AND 310 MAGNETIC BETWEEN
18Z AND 23Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC
TODAY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NGT...VFR.
.FRI...CIGS LOWER THRU THE DAY WITH MVFR POSSIBLE LATE.
.FRI NGT-SAT NGT...MVFR OR LOWER. PCPN MAINLY RAIN...BUT SNOW MAY
MIX IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AT NGT. NE-N WINDS 15-20G25-35KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 20-25G30-35KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 5-10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND WILL RESULT IN WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS POSSIBLY OVER THE
FAR EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE NE
FLOW COULD STRENGTHEN TO UP TO 15 KT. AS A RESULT...SUB-SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS NE FLOW STRENGTHENS...THEN EXPECT
NORTHERLY GALES ON THE OCEAN BY SAT AFTERNOON...AND N-NW GALES ON
ALL WATERS - ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN AND THE ERN SOUND/BAYS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT ON...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS BY MON
MORNING...AND ON THE OCEAN BY MON NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AT MOST A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND.

RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNDER A HALF INCH WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL AREAS. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JMC/NV
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT








000
FXUS61 KOKX 301621
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1221 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY...THEN TRACKS
NORTHEAST TO EAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE A
SECONDARY LOW FORMS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY...THEN
TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS STORM THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATES ON LATEST T/TD TRENDS...AND CLOUDS. PASSAGE OF 700-500
HPA TROUGH AXIS WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED-BROKEN CLOUDS. DOWNSLOPE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR.

LATEST HOURLY GUIDANCE IN LINE WITH FORECAST HIGHS. EXPECT HIGHS
TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A 850-500 HPA SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE PROMOTING MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. AS A RESULT...HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS LOWER OF
MET/MAV/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS. NOT
QUITE CERTAIN ENOUGH OF A COMPLETELY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS TO
GO COLDER AT THIS TIME. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NNW FROM COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF
THE VA/NC COAST FRIDAY TOWARDS LONG ISLAND. THIS COUPLED WITH A
PASSING WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WARRANTS INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR -SHRA OVER
MAINLY LONG ISLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGIZES A SURFACE LOW EMERGING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS STRENGTHEN THIS STORM AS IT HEADS
NE...PASSING SE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH FIRST BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AT LEAST CHANCE POPS REMAIN ON SATURDAY
WITH SOME MID LEVEL LIFT...ALTHOUGH MODEL QPF OUTPUT SUGGESTS
THAT COASTAL AREAS WARRANT LIKELY POPS...BEING CLOSER TO THE
STORM CENTER. CHANCES OF RAINFALL THEN DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE STORM SHIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA...WITH DRY WEATHER
BY SUNDAY MORNING.

THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST AN ALL RAIN EVENT. BY THE TIME FREEZING
LEVELS AND WET BULB ZEROES LOWER ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW...PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ENDED OR WILL JUST ABOUT TO
END. THIS WOULD BE THE CASE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CITY. WITH SUCH LIMITED COVERAGE OF A LOW
PROBABILITY EVENT...HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF SNOW FROM THE
GRIDS.

WINDS WILL END UP BEING THE BIGGER STORY...AND WILL BE AT THEIR
STRONGEST FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COULD
GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT SOME POINT DURING THIS
PERIOD...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AVERAGING AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND 30 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE GROWING SEASON THEN PROBABLY ENDS
FOR MORE OF THE ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE CITY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. TEMPS THEN BEGIN THEIR CLIMB BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL ON MONDAY...BEFORE REACHING NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY
WITH A SW FLOW.

NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THEN ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A WARM FRONT PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE METRO TODAY. LOW PRES BEGINS TO DEVELOP S
OF THE REGION FRI.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

MAINLY NW WINDS AT OR BELOW 10KT. SOME BACKING TO THE WNW THIS
AFTN...ESPECIALLY S COASTS. DIRECTION VEERS TO THE N OVERNIGHT.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC
TODAY...POSSIBLY WAVERING BETWEEN 290 AND 310 MAGNETIC BETWEEN 18Z
AND 23Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC
TODAY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC
TODAY...POSSIBLY WAVERING BETWEEN 290 AND 310 MAGNETIC BETWEEN
18Z AND 23Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC
TODAY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NGT...VFR.
.FRI...CIGS LOWER THRU THE DAY WITH MVFR POSSIBLE LATE.
.FRI NGT-SAT NGT...MVFR OR LOWER. PCPN MAINLY RAIN...BUT SNOW MAY
MIX IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AT NGT. NE-N WINDS 15-20G25-35KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 20-25G30-35KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 5-10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND WILL RESULT IN WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS POSSIBLY OVER THE
FAR EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE NE
FLOW COULD STRENGTHEN TO UP TO 15 KT. AS A RESULT...SUB-SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS NE FLOW STRENGTHENS...THEN EXPECT
NORTHERLY GALES ON THE OCEAN BY SAT AFTERNOON...AND N-NW GALES ON
ALL WATERS - ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN AND THE ERN SOUND/BAYS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT ON...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS BY MON
MORNING...AND ON THE OCEAN BY MON NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AT MOST A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND.

RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNDER A HALF INCH WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL AREAS. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JMC/NV
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT








000
FXUS61 KBUF 301452
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1052 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED
AREAS OF CLOUDINESS INLAND FROM THE LAKES THROUGH THE DAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...USHERING IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG
WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIQUID...ALTHOUGH A FEW WET
SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN ON THE HILLS SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARMING TREND
IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING DISPLAYS TWO SHORTWAVES. THE FIRST
ONE IS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM OUR REGION TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND...AND MORE POTENT IS DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MANITOBA.

A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN ON IR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL LEAVE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TODAY FOR
OUR REGION. THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING OVER THE LAKESHORES...AND
THE NORTHERN NIAGARA FRONTIER TODAY.

UNDER THESE CLOUDS HIGHS TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 WITH MOST
AREAS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S THROUGH THE DAY.

OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY TODAY THE SECOND SHORTWAVE OVER
MANITOBA WILL DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THIS SURFACE LOW WILL PROVIDE A
BOUNDARY FOR WHICH SOUTHERLY...AND INCREASING MOISTURE FLOW WILL
PRODUCE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARDS
DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. AREAS FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.

THOUGH THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEEPENING AT THE
SURFACE...IT WILL NOT BE TO DEEP...WITH A CENTRAL SURFACE PRESSURE
REMAINING ABOVE 1000MB. THIS WILL NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH TO CREATE ANY
GUSTY WINDS...RATHER JUST A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND THAT WILL BACK TO
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH THIS LIGHT WIND TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AND INLAND SOUTHERN TIER...WHILE REMAINING AROUND 40 NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORELINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE REMAINS LITTLE QUESTION THAT MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION BY THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE PROSPECTS FOR SNOW CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH. 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON FRIDAY THEN EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR THE
CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSLATE INTO STRONG
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST ON
FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER THE UNUSUAL NORTH
TO SOUTH TRACK WILL KEEP OUR REGION ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
ENSEMBLE 850MB TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS CLOSELY CLUSTERED FROM -1
TO -2C WHICH SHOULD BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE WITH WEAK LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A COMPLEX SURFACE MAP THIS
WEEKEND HOWEVER FOR OUR REGION THE BOTTOM LINE WILL BE QUITE SIMPLE
WITH A STRENGTHENING NE FLOW AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE CAUSE THE PRECIPITATION WILL
TRANSITION FROM THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO LIFT GENERATED
BY UPSLOPE AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT. CONSENSUS QPF CONTINUES TO BE LIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LARGELY REMAIN TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE
TO OUR EAST WHICH WILL FILTER IN COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL ALLOW SOME SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AWAY FROM THE LAKES. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AS DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS MAY BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM
COOLER AIR ALOFT...BUT EVENTUALLY THE DRY AIR SHOULD WIN OUT WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...FROM A COMBINATION OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPING.
HOWEVER...ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND ALTHOUGH 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW...NAM
BUFKIT SHOWS DRY AIR ABOVE -10C WHICH SUGGESTS A LIMITED DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH ZONE. MOISTURE MAY ONLY BE ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCED
STRATUS.

AS ADVERTISED...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S. THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP LOWS INTO
THE LOWER 30S NEAR THE LAKESHORES WITH UPPER 20S INLAND ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH THE EFFECTS OF
A DEEP COASTAL LOW SUNDAY...WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL
BE ENTERING A PERIOD OF BENIGN WEATHER AS A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES TRANSLATES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. COOL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS COOL AND CLOUDY ON SUNDAY AS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY...THE
REGION SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO THE
EAST COAST...OPENING UP THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO WARM SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW. ALAS THE MILD WEATHER WILL COME AT A PRICE AS WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL GENERATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.

THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS WE MOVE DEEPER INTO NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST AND THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS
IT LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A SHARP SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENTS TIGHTEN ACROSS THE
NATION`S MID-SECTION AS WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S. ENCOUNTERS MILDER PACIFIC AIR ADVECTING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE TOP OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
GREAT BASIN. TUESDAY COULD END UP BEING A VERY MILD DAY ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60S. 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A CONSENSUS TIMING OF TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL USHER IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FOR WEDNESDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH ITS PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 15Z LARGELY LOW END VFR CIGS...AND SOME EMBEDDED MVFR
CIGS...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ARE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION
WITHIN A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW. EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH
THIS NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW.

THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LIFT
THROUGH THE DAYTIME...THUS VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT MOST TAF
SITES.

TONIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH AGAIN
LARGELY MVFR/VFR. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL REACH FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK AROUND 9-15Z TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING
LIKELY.
SATURDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH WET SNOW ON THE HIGHEST HILLS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED FOR WINDS AND WAVES ON LAKE
ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO TO FALL THIS MORNING. LATEST OBSERVATIONS ON
LAKE ONTARIO SUGGEST WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 3 FEET...AND
WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND DOWNWARD. GIVEN THESE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ON LAKE ONTARIO...THUS NO MORE ADVISORIES REMAIN AT THIS
TIME. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/WOOD
AVIATION...CHURCH/THOMAS
MARINE...CHURCH








000
FXUS61 KALY 301452
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1052 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1030 AM... LOT OF CLOUDS COVERING CENTRAL NY THIS
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 MB SHORT WAVE AND SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN BREAKING UP AS THEY DOWNSLOPE INTO THE MID AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER VT AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH SOME 40S OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

AS OF 630 AM...STLT PICS SHOW CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TODAY AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
THIS MORNING OVER THE SCHOHARIE AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS
BECAUSE CURRENT TEMPS WERE MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MISS THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAVE FORECAST 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CHILLY START TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND..BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED IN THE
LONG TERM.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT WITH WPC.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE H500 UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ERN CONUS.  SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC CYCLONE LOOKS TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR MINIMAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF PCPN...BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND WINDY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS.  BY SUNDAY...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN CYCLONE AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  BRISK N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND H850 TEMPS OF -4C TO -8C WILL MAY IT FEEL LIKE WINTER! EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO M40S IN THE
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  MONDAY...TEMPS CREEP CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER READINGS BUT STILL WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5
DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO L50S...THOUGH A FEW
U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN DACKS.  A WARM FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MON NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE
30S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A
MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.  IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN...H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +12C.  EXPECT
HIGHS TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS.  TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY...AS A SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF
WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS IN THE 6-8 KFT AGL RANGE LOWERING TO 4-6
KFT BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
KPOU WHERE SOME MVFR MIST WILL LINGER FORMA FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL
14Z.  EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN
START TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME SCT CUMULUS
AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS AROUND TONIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE TO
4-8 KTS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AT 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KBTV 301441
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1041 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK ON
FRIDAY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1023 AM EDT THURSDAY...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING AS WV/IR SATELLITE INDICATE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE SUPPORTED A FEW POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER TODAY BEFORE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN LATER TONIGHT. AS FAR AS THE TEMPS AND WX
FORECAST, THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS ON TRACK AND SO THE ONLY
TWEAKS WERE TO REFRESH THE 11AM THROUGH 1PM FORECAST BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 600 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP SHOWING SOME RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE UPDATED THE ZONE
FORECASTS FOR THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...NO
CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT THURSDAY...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...AS WIND FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AS WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

ON FRIDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY.
THUS...THIS TAKES THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THIS IS A CHANGE
FROM A FEW DAYS AGO WITH HAD THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR OVER OR
REGION. MODEL SHOWING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK...ESPECIALLY THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
ON SATURDAY...MODELS DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TAKE IT NORTHEAST WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL JUST HAVE LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S ON SATURDAY...WITH THE UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH HANDLING POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED DIGGING TROF AND
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRES ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. CONSENSUS SHOWS DEEP
FULL LATITUDE TROF ACRS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AT 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPING 50 TO 75 MILES EAST OF THE 40/70
BENCHMARK. THIS IS AN UNFAVORABLE TRACK FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
ACRS OUR CWA...AS BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WL BE EAST OF OUR
CWA...HOWEVER BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME MID LVL RH AND BACKSIDE
VORT SLIDING ACRS OUR CWA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS WL SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACRS
OUR CWA. STILL LOOKING AT A LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE
MTNS BY SUNDAY MORNING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN -7C AND -9C BY
12Z SUNDAY...ON BRISK NORTH WINDS. EXPECTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S
MTNS TO M30S/L40S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25
MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDS...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NE
CONUS...AS TROF LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS WL RESULT IN
RISING HGHTS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS
ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA...BUT VERY DRY AIR ALOFT.
THINKING LOWS WL RANGE FROM NEAR 20F SLK/COLDER VALLEYS TO NEAR
30S ACRS THE CPV. IF WINDS ARE LIGHTER THAN PROGGED...TEMPS COULD
FALL INTO THE TEENS AT OUR COLDER LOCATIONS. LLVL WAA RESULTS IN
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 0C BY 00Z TUES AND BTWN 2-4C BY
00Z WEDS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. HIGHS WL WARM INTO THE M/U 30S
MTNS TO M/U 40S VALLEYS ON MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT
SHARP INVERSION ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AS WARMING ALOFT OCCURS.
LOWS WL RANGE FROM M20S TO M30S ON MONDAY NIGHT...COLDEST TEMPS
WL BE ACRS THE NEK OF VT...WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE
SLV/DACKS. NEXT SYSTEM WL PRODUCE MORE CLOUDS ON TUESDAY WITH CHCS
FOR RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY BY LATE TUES INTO WEDS. TEMPS WITH
SOUTHWEST FLW WL WARM INTO THE U40S TO M50S FOR TUES/WEDS AND LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK S/W AND ASSOCIATED
MID LVL MOISTURE MOVING ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN TAF SITES
ATTM...WITH SOME SPRINKLES/FLURRIES SHOWING UP ON LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY. CRNT OBS SHOW VFR AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT IFR CIGS AT
SLK. SOUNDINGS CONT TO SUPPORT IFR CIGS AT SLK THRU 14Z...BEFORE
LIFTING TO MVFR THEN VFR BY THIS AFTN. ELSEWHERE...COULD SEE MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP AT MPV THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH NW FLW BEHIND SFC
BOUNDARY. REST OF TAF SITES WL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS
HGHTS BTWN 4000 AND 6000 FEET. LOOK FOR NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS TODAY...BECOME LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN TONIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... MOISTURE WL APPROACH OUR
WESTERN TAF SITES BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT VALLEY RAIN AND
MTN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AFTN INTO
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AT MSS/SLK. EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS ON
SATURDAY WITH SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES...AND SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY AT MPV/SLK. IN ADDITION...AS SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF-
SHORE...BREEZY NORTH WINDS WL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE ALIGNED NORTH TO SOUTH VALLEYS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KBGM 301426
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1026 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END LATE THIS MORNING AND DRY
WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT OUR AREA STARTING
FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FLURRY OR TWO MAY OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT
AS COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN
SUNDAY AND LAST THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN DECENT SHAPE...SO JUST
MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL/MODEL
DATA.

VSBL SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY SOLID MASS OF SC CLDS OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA LATE THIS MRNG. LAKE-EFFECT PROCESSES (15-16C LAKE/850 MB
DIFFERENTIAL)...LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE...AND AN UPSLOPE NWLY
FLOW REGIME WILL LARGELY CONTRIBUTE TO KEEPING THESE CLDS IN PLACE
THIS AFTN...AND LIKELY RIGHT INTO THIS EVE AS WELL. GIVEN THAT A
MID-LVL S/WV IS IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING CNY/NE PA ATTM...WE
SHOULD GET INTO SOME SINKING MOTION ALOFT THIS AFTN BEHIND THIS
FEATURE...AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW BRIEF BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
ACRS THE TWIN TIERS. BUT AGAIN...IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT
CLDS WILL HAVE THE UPPER HAND.

ISOLD -SHRA MAY CONTINUE TO DOT AREAS SE OF LK ONT INTO EARLY
AFTN...BUT IN GENERAL...THESE SHWRS WILL BE ON THE DECLINE WITH TIME.

OUR EXISTING HIGH TEMP FCST (MID 40S-LWR 50S) LOOKS GOOD...BASED
ON RGNL 12Z SNDGS...AND EXPECTED SLGT LOW-LVL CAA INTO THIS AFTN.

PREV DISC... 230 AM EDT UPDATE... SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
HAVE PRETTY MUCH ENDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY
THIS MORNING AS COOLER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE
REGION. 700MB TEMPS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ARE
AROUND AROUND NEGATIVE 7 OR BELOW. THE DECREASE IN THE TEMPS ALOFT
HAVE ALLOWED THE INVERSION TO BECOME STRONGER. THE STRENGTHENED
INVERSION RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SINGLE BAND OF LAKE
EFFECT INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER ONONDAGA... ONEIDA... AND MADISON
COUNTY THIS MORNING. THE MEAN FLOW OVER THE LAKE CURRENTLY IS
AROUND 280-290 DEGREES. THE MEAN FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT 280-290
DEGREES THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z THIS MORNING. AFTER 10Z THE MEAN FLOW
WILL START TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF 300 DEGREES. THIS WILL RESULT
IN TRANSITION OF THE SINGLE BAND TO BECOME SCATTERED LIKE IN
NATURE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

DUE TO CAA EARLY THIS MORNING... TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA WILL CONTINUE
TO FALL AND REACH THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNRISE. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS MORNING.

BY 15Z THIS MORNING THE DEPTH UNDER THE INVERSION REALLY STARTS TO
DECREASE... THUS IF LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE AFTER 15Z OVER CENTRAL
NY... EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE VERY LIGHT IF NOT SPRINKLES. BY 18Z THE
INVERSION WILL DISSIPATE AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL END.

THE REST OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS WE LACK ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE ALOFT AND BC WE HAVE WEAK FORCING ALOFT. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON IF NOT OVERCAST.
BY 00Z EXPECT SOME CLEARING OVER THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA... BUT
DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO LAST LONG AS A STRONG UPPR LVL LOW WILL BE
APPROACHING RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE... THUS MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES WILL RETURN BY LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE UPPR 40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
BY FRIDAY MORNING THE HIGHLY TALKED ABOUT AND WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER
LVL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER MI AND THE SFC LOW WILL BE
JUST NORTH OF OHIO. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE ENERGY FROM THIS TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
TRANSFER FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH IMPACTING A COASTAL SYSTEM. THIS
COASTAL SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON OUR CWA.
EXPECT THE COASTAL SYSTEM TO STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST SO THAT WE MISS
THE BRUNT OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM. HOWEVER... THIS DOES NOT MEAN WE
WILL HAVE QUIET WEATHER.

THE SFC LOW THAT IS LOCATED NORTH OF OHIO WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND BECOME WASHED OUT OVER THE REGION.
THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE CWA. EVEN
THOUGH WE MISS THE BRUNT OF THE SYSTEM WILL WILL STILL BE
IMPACTED DUE TO STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION. THE CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL START IN THE FAR WEST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST DURING THE DAY AND
PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE CHANCE FOR SNOW BECOMES LESS AND LESS WITH EACH ADDITIONAL
GUIDANCE RUN AS TEMPS JUST SEEM TO BE TO WARM. BY THE TIME THE
AIRMASS BECOMES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW GROWTH THE CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL END.

TEMPS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPR
40S TO LOW 50S. THE COLDER AIRMASS DOES NOT MOVE INTO THE REGION
TILL SUNDAY. CAN NOT 100% RULE OUT A MIX OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS SAT NIGHT... BUT CHANCES FOR THAT LOOKS SLIM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ON SUNDAY, DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL LIFT OUT OF THE REGION AS
SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE A
COOL/DRY DAY BUT WINDY WITH MAXES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A MODERATING TREND
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRES ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION PROVIDES A SOUTHWEST FLOW. MAXES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT WILL CARRY CHC POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS AS A PROGRESSIVE UPPER
LEVEL TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS THROUGH
THIS MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE NYS TERMINALS. AT KELM/KAVP, CIGS
WILL REMAIN AROUND 4K FT. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
ALSO OCCUR AT KRME/KSYR. BY EARLY AFTERNOON CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO
LOW VFR EXCEPT AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS KITH/KBGM WHERE MVFR MAY
STILL PERSIST. OVERNIGHT, WEAKENING FLOW WILL ALLOW CIGS TO REMAIN
VFR.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AM...VFR.

FRI PM THROUGH SAT...RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN AND MON...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH/MLJ
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KOKX 301337
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
937 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY...THEN TRACKS
NORTHEAST TO EAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE A
SECONDARY LOW FORMS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY...THEN
TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS STORM THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATES ON LATEST T/TD RENDS...AND CLOUDS. EARLY MORNING FOG HAS
BURNED OFF. PASSAGE OF 700-500 HPA TROUGH AXIS WILL ONLY PRODUCE
SCATTERED CLOUDS AT AROUND 10KT. DOWNSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
SERVES AS A LIMITING FACTOR.

LATEST HOURLY GUIDANCE IN LINE WITH FORECAST HIGHS. EXPECT HIGHS
TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A 850-500 HPA SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE PROMOTING MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. AS A RESULT...HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS LOWER OF
MET/MAV/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS. NOT
QUITE CERTAIN ENOUGH OF A COMPLETELY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS TO
GO COLDER AT THIS TIME. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NNW FROM COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF
THE VA/NC COAST FRIDAY TOWARDS LONG ISLAND. THIS COUPLED WITH A
PASSING WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WARRANTS INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR -SHRA OVER
MAINLY LONG ISLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGIZES A SURFACE LOW EMERGING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS STRENGTHEN THIS STORM AS IT HEADS
NE...PASSING SE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH FIRST BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AT LEAST CHANCE POPS REMAIN ON SATURDAY
WITH SOME MID LEVEL LIFT...ALTHOUGH MODEL QPF OUTPUT SUGGESTS
THAT COASTAL AREAS WARRANT LIKELY POPS...BEING CLOSER TO THE
STORM CENTER. CHANCES OF RAINFALL THEN DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE STORM SHIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA...WITH DRY WEATHER
BY SUNDAY MORNING.

THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST AN ALL RAIN EVENT. BY THE TIME FREEZING
LEVELS AND WET BULB ZEROES LOWER ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW...PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ENDED OR WILL JUST ABOUT TO
END. THIS WOULD BE THE CASE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CITY. WITH SUCH LIMITED COVERAGE OF A LOW
PROBABILITY EVENT...HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF SNOW FROM THE
GRIDS.

WINDS WILL END UP BEING THE BIGGER STORY...AND WILL BE AT THEIR
STRONGEST FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COULD
GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT SOME POINT DURING THIS
PERIOD...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AVERAGING AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND 30 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE GROWING SEASON THEN PROBABLY ENDS
FOR MORE OF THE ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE CITY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. TEMPS THEN BEGIN THEIR CLIMB BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL ON MONDAY...BEFORE REACHING NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY
WITH A SW FLOW.

NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THEN ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A WARM FRONT PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE METRO TODAY. LOW PRES BEGINS TO DEVELOP S
OF THE REGION FRI.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

MAINLY NW WINDS AT OR BELOW 10KT. SOME BACKING TO THE WNW THIS
AFTN...ESPECIALLY S COASTS. DIRECTION VEERS TO THE N OVERNIGHT.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC
TODAY...POSSIBLY WAVERING BETWEEN 290 AND 310 MAGNETIC BETWEEN 18Z
AND 23Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC
TODAY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC
TODAY...POSSIBLY WAVERING BETWEEN 290 AND 310 MAGNETIC BETWEEN
18Z AND 23Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC
TODAY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NGT...VFR.
.FRI...CIGS LOWER THRU THE DAY WITH MVFR POSSIBLE LATE.
.FRI NGT-SAT NGT...MVFR OR LOWER. PCPN MAINLY RAIN...BUT SNOW MAY
MIX IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AT NGT. NE-N WINDS 15-20G25-35KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 20-25G30-35KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 5-10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND WILL RESULT IN WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS POSSIBLY OVER THE
FAR EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE NE
FLOW COULD STRENGTHEN TO UP TO 15 KT. AS A RESULT...SUB-SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS NE FLOW STRENGTHENS...THEN EXPECT
NORTHERLY GALES ON THE OCEAN BY SAT AFTERNOON...AND N-NW GALES ON
ALL WATERS - ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN AND THE ERN SOUND/BAYS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT ON...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS BY MON
MORNING...AND ON THE OCEAN BY MON NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AT MOST A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND.

RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNDER A HALF INCH WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL AREAS. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JMC/NV
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT










000
FXUS61 KOKX 301145
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
745 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY. ..THEN TRACKS
NORTHEAST TO EAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE A
SECONDARY LOW FORMS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY...THEN
TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS STORM THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. EXCEPTION IS THE TEMPERATURE AT
FOK...WHICH HAS FALLEN QUITE A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED. OVERALL
THOUGH...THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO
THE W/N OF NYC METRO...IS APPEARING TO HAVE STARTED TO DISSIPATE
AND AS OF NOW...LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK TO BECOME AT MOST ISOLATED IN
NATURE BY 11Z...SO AT THIS TIME DO NOT PLAN ON RE-ISSUING SPS FOR
LOCALLY DENSE FOG AT 11Z.

OTHERWISE...PASSAGE OF 700-500 HPA TROUGH AXIS TODAY WILL ONLY
PRODUCE SOME SCT CLOUDS AS AROUND 10KT OR DOWNSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW SERVES AS A LIMITING FACTOR.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A 850-500 HPA SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE PROMOTING MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. AS A RESULT...HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS LOWER OF
MET/MAV/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS. NOT
QUITE CERTAIN ENOUGH OF A COMPLETELY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS TO
GO COLDER AT THIS TIME. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NNW FROM COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF
THE VA/NC COAST FRIDAY TOWARDS LONG ISLAND. THIS COUPLED WITH A
PASSING WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WARRANTS INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR -SHRA OVER
MAINLY LONG ISLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGIZES A SURFACE LOW EMERGING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS STRENGTHEN THIS STORM AS IT HEADS
NE...PASSING SE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH FIRST BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AT LEAST CHANCE POPS REMAIN ON SATURDAY
WITH SOME MID LEVEL LIFT...ALTHOUGH MODEL QPF OUTPUT SUGGESTS
THAT COASTAL AREAS WARRANT LIKELY POPS...BEING CLOSER TO THE
STORM CENTER. CHANCES OF RAINFALL THEN DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE STORM SHIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA...WITH DRY WEATHER
BY SUNDAY MORNING.

THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST AN ALL RAIN EVENT. BY THE TIME FREEZING
LEVELS AND WET BULB ZEROES LOWER ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW...PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ENDED OR WILL JUST ABOUT TO
END. THIS WOULD BE THE CASE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CITY. WITH SUCH LIMITED COVERAGE OF A LOW
PROBABILITY EVENT...HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF SNOW FROM THE
GRIDS.

WINDS WILL END UP BEING THE BIGGER STORY...AND WILL BE AT THEIR
STRONGEST FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COULD
GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT SOME POINT DURING THIS
PERIOD...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AVERAGING AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND 30 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE GROWING SEASON THEN PROBABLY ENDS
FOR MORE OF THE ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE CITY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. TEMPS THEN BEGIN THEIR CLIMB BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL ON MONDAY...BEFORE REACHING NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY
WITH A SW FLOW.

NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THEN ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A WARM FRONT PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE METRO TODAY. LOW PRES BEGINS TO DEVELOP S
OF THE REGION FRI.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR DISSIPATING FG THIS MRNG.

MAINLY NW WINDS AT OR BELOW 10KT. SOME BACKING TO THE WNW THIS
AFTN...ESPECIALLY S COASTS. DIRECTION VEERS TO THE N OVERNIGHT.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SOME VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION CAN BE
EXPECTED THRU 14Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SOME VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION CAN BE
EXPECTED THRU 14Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SOME VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION CAN BE
EXPECTED THRU 14Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SOME VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION CAN BE
EXPECTED THRU 14Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NGT...VFR.
.FRI...CIGS LOWER THRU THE DAY WITH MVFR POSSIBLE LATE.
.FRI NGT-SAT NGT...MVFR OR LOWER. PCPN MAINLY RAIN...BUT SNOW MAY
MIX IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AT NGT. NE-N WINDS 15-20G25-35KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25-30KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 5-10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND
WILL RESULT IN WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS POSSIBLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE NE FLOW COULD STRENGTHEN TO UP
TO 15 KT. AS A RESULT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS NE FLOW STRENGTHENS...THEN EXPECT
NORTHERLY GALES ON THE OCEAN BY SAT AFTERNOON...AND N-NW GALES ON
ALL WATERS - ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN AND THE ERN SOUND/BAYS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT ON...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS BY MON
MORNING...AND ON THE OCEAN BY MON NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AT MOST A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND.

RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNDER A HALF INCH WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL AREAS. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT







000
FXUS61 KBTV 301138
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
738 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK ON
FRIDAY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTH
CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE UPDATED THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR THIS MORNING
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 450 AM EDT THURSDAY...MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SEE BREAKS IN THIS CLOUDY COVER ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO...SO COULD SEE SOME PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION LATER TODAY. CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPERATURES FAIRLY
MILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...SO WILL SEE SOME MILD
TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY...BUT NOT AS WARM AS YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT THURSDAY...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...AS WIND FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AS WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

ON FRIDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY.
THUS...THIS TAKES THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THIS IS A CHANGE
FROM A FEW DAYS AGO WITH HAD THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR OVER OR
REGION. MODEL SHOWING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK...ESPECIALLY THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
ON SATURDAY...MODELS DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TAKE IT NORTHEAST WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL JUST HAVE LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S ON SATURDAY...WITH THE UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH HANDLING POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED DIGGING TROF AND
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRES ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. CONSENSUS SHOWS DEEP
FULL LATITUDE TROF ACRS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AT 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPING 50 TO 75 MILES EAST OF THE 40/70
BENCHMARK. THIS IS AN UNFAVORABLE TRACK FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
ACRS OUR CWA...AS BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WL BE EAST OF OUR
CWA...HOWEVER BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME MID LVL RH AND BACKSIDE
VORT SLIDING ACRS OUR CWA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS WL SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACRS
OUR CWA. STILL LOOKING AT A LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE
MTNS BY SUNDAY MORNING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN -7C AND -9C BY
12Z SUNDAY...ON BRISK NORTH WINDS. EXPECTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S
MTNS TO M30S/L40S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25
MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDS...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NE
CONUS...AS TROF LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS WL RESULT IN
RISING HGHTS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS
ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA...BUT VERY DRY AIR ALOFT.
THINKING LOWS WL RANGE FROM NEAR 20F SLK/COLDER VALLEYS TO NEAR
30S ACRS THE CPV. IF WINDS ARE LIGHTER THAN PROGGED...TEMPS COULD
FALL INTO THE TEENS AT OUR COLDER LOCATIONS. LLVL WAA RESULTS IN
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 0C BY 00Z TUES AND BTWN 2-4C BY
00Z WEDS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. HIGHS WL WARM INTO THE M/U 30S
MTNS TO M/U 40S VALLEYS ON MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT
SHARP INVERSION ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AS WARMING ALOFT OCCURS.
LOWS WL RANGE FROM M20S TO M30S ON MONDAY NIGHT...COLDEST TEMPS
WL BE ACRS THE NEK OF VT...WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE
SLV/DACKS. NEXT SYSTEM WL PRODUCE MORE CLOUDS ON TUESDAY WITH CHCS
FOR RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY BY LATE TUES INTO WEDS. TEMPS WITH
SOUTHWEST FLW WL WARM INTO THE U40S TO M50S FOR TUES/WEDS AND LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK S/W AND ASSOCIATED
MID LVL MOISTURE MOVING ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN TAF SITES
ATTM...WITH SOME SPRINKLES/FLURRIES SHOWING UP ON LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY. CRNT OBS SHOW VFR AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT IFR CIGS AT
SLK. SOUNDINGS CONT TO SUPPORT IFR CIGS AT SLK THRU 14Z...BEFORE
LIFTING TO MVFR THEN VFR BY THIS AFTN. ELSEWHERE...COULD SEE MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP AT MPV THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH NW FLW BEHIND SFC
BOUNDARY. REST OF TAF SITES WL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS
HGHTS BTWN 4000 AND 6000 FEET. LOOK FOR NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS TODAY...BECOME LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN TONIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... MOISTURE WL APPROACH OUR
WESTERN TAF SITES BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT VALLEY RAIN AND
MTN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AFTN INTO
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AT MSS/SLK. EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS ON
SATURDAY WITH SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES...AND SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY AT MPV/SLK. IN ADDITION...AS SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF-
SHORE...BREEZY NORTH WINDS WL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE ALIGNED NORTH TO SOUTH VALLEYS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KBUF 301137
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
737 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...USHERING IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG
WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIQUID...ALTHOUGH A FEW WET
SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN ON THE HILLS SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARMING TREND
IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING DISPLAYS TWO SHORTWAVES. THE FIRST
ONE IS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM OUR REGION TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND...AND MORE POTENT IS DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MANITOBA.

REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY BROKEN AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH JUST SPOTTY
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OFF LAKE ERIE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE AND WEAKEN SE OF THE LAKES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEHIND
THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS LAKE PARAMETERS
BECOME POORER...LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AND CAPE VALUES FALL
AND LESS SURFACE CONVERGENCE EXPECT MUCH OF THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN TO
END BY NOONTIME.

A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN ON IR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL LEAVE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TODAY FOR
OUR REGION. THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING OVER THE LAKESHORES...AND
THE NORTHERN NIAGARA FRONTIER TODAY.

UNDER THESE CLOUDS HIGHS TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 WITH MOST
AREAS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S THROUGH THE DAY.

OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY TODAY THE SECOND SHORTWAVE OVER
MANITOBA WILL DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THIS SURFACE LOW WILL PROVIDE A
BOUNDARY FOR WHICH SOUTHERLY...AND INCREASING MOISTURE FLOW WILL
PRODUCE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARDS
DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING. AREAS FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.

THOUGH THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEEPENING AT THE
SURFACE...IT WILL NOT BE TO DEEP...WITH A CENTRAL SURFACE PRESSURE
REMAINING ABOVE 1000MB. THIS WILL NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH TO CREATE ANY
GUSTY WINDS...RATHER JUST A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND THAT WILL BACK TO
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH THIS LIGHT WIND TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AND INLAND SOUTHERN TIER...WHILE REMAINING AROUND 40 NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORELINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE REMAINS LITTLE QUESTION THAT MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION BY THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE PROSPECTS FOR SNOW CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH. 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON FRIDAY THEN EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR THE
CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSLATE INTO STRONG
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST ON
FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER THE UNUSUAL NORTH
TO SOUTH TRACK WILL KEEP OUR REGION ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
ENSEMBLE 850MB TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS CLOSELY CLUSTERED FROM -1
TO -2C WHICH SHOULD BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE WITH WEAK LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A COMPLEX SURFACE MAP THIS
WEEKEND HOWEVER FOR OUR REGION THE BOTTOM LINE WILL BE QUITE SIMPLE
WITH A STRENGTHENING NE FLOW AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE CAUSE THE PRECIPITATION WILL
TRANSITION FROM THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO LIFT GENERATED
BY UPSLOPE AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT. CONSENSUS QPF CONTINUES TO BE LIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LARGELY REMAIN TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE
TO OUR EAST WHICH WILL FILTER IN COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL ALLOW SOME SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AWAY FROM THE LAKES. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AS DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS MAY BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM
COOLER AIR ALOFT...BUT EVENTUALLY THE DRY AIR SHOULD WIN OUT WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...FROM A COMBINATION OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPING.
HOWEVER...ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND ALTHOUGH 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW...NAM
BUFKIT SHOWS DRY AIR ABOVE -10C WHICH SUGGESTS A LIMITED DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH ZONE. MOISTURE MAY ONLY BE ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCED
STRATUS.

AS ADVERTISED...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S. THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP LOWS INTO
THE LOWER 30S NEAR THE LAKESHORES WITH UPPER 20S INLAND ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH THE EFFECTS OF
A DEEP COASTAL LOW SUNDAY...WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL
BE ENTERING A PERIOD OF BENIGN WEATHER AS A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES TRANSLATES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. COOL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS COOL AND CLOUDY ON SUNDAY AS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY...THE
REGION SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO THE
EAST COAST...OPENING UP THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO WARM SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW. ALAS THE MILD WEATHER WILL COME AT A PRICE AS WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL GENERATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.

THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS WE MOVE DEEPER INTO NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST AND THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS
IT LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A SHARP SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENTS TIGHTEN ACROSS THE
NATION`S MID-SECTION AS WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S. ENCOUNTERS MILDER PACIFIC AIR ADVECTING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE TOP OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
GREAT BASIN. TUESDAY COULD END UP BEING A VERY MILD DAY ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60S. 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A CONSENSUS TIMING OF TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL USHER IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FOR WEDNESDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH ITS PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 12Z LARGELY LOW END VFR CIGS...AND SOME EMBEDDED MVFR CIGS ARE
FOUND ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW. ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE INLAND SOUTHERN TIER SOME IFR CIGS ARE FOUND. EXPECT
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO CONTINUE WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH THIS NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW.

A FEW PASSING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES WILL LIKELY ONLY IMPACT KJHW TERMINAL...AND AT THAT ONLY A
VCSH WILL BE INCLUDED DUE TO THE SCATTEREDNESS OF ACTIVITY FOR THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF CYCLE.

THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY THIN
THROUGH THE DAYTIME...AND SIDE TOWARDS VFR WITH THE DAYTIME MIXING.

TONIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH AGAIN
LARGELY MVFR/VFR. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL REACH FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK AROUND 9-15Z TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING
LIKELY.
SATURDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH WET SNOW ON THE HIGHEST HILLS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED FOR
WINDS AND WAVES ON LAKE ERIE TO FALL...WITH WAVES NOW 4 FEET AND
UNDER. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL CANCEL THE SCA HERE.

ON LAKE ONTARIO A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES WINDS AND WAVES ABOVE SCA
THRESHOLDS. WHILE THE WINDS ARE WEAKENING SOME...WAVES STILL 4 TO 5
FEET WILL MAINTAIN SCA THROUGH THE BULK OF THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOZ043-
         044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ042-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/WOOD
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 301113
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
713 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.