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000
WTPZ32 KNHC 221446
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
800 AM PDT MON SEP 22 2014

...POLO BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 114.4W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE POLO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.4 WEST.  THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH
...11 KM/H.  A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST WITH SOME DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY...AND POLO IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON POLO.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW OF
POLO PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEP1 AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN



000
WTPZ22 KNHC 221446
TCMEP2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
1500 UTC MON SEP 22 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 114.4W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 114.4W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 114.1W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.0N 115.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.7N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 21.2N 116.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 114.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON POLO.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW OF
POLO PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSEFP1 AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 221446
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
800 AM PDT MON SEP 22 2014

...POLO BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 114.4W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE POLO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.4 WEST.  THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH
...11 KM/H.  A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST WITH SOME DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY...AND POLO IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON POLO.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW OF
POLO PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEP1 AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN



000
WTPZ22 KNHC 221446
TCMEP2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
1500 UTC MON SEP 22 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 114.4W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 114.4W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 114.1W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.0N 115.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.7N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 21.2N 116.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 114.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON POLO.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW OF
POLO PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSEFP1 AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 221446
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
800 AM PDT MON SEP 22 2014

...POLO BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 114.4W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE POLO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.4 WEST.  THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH
...11 KM/H.  A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST WITH SOME DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY...AND POLO IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON POLO.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW OF
POLO PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEP1 AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 221446
TCMEP2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
1500 UTC MON SEP 22 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 114.4W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 114.4W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 114.1W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.0N 115.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.7N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 21.2N 116.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 114.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON POLO.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW OF
POLO PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSEFP1 AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN





000
WTPZ32 KNHC 220831
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 AM PDT MON SEP 22 2014

...POLO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 113.8W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION POLO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H.  A
SLOWER WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO
THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND POLO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW
LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD SUBSIDE LATER TODAY. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 220831
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 AM PDT MON SEP 22 2014

...POLO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 113.8W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION POLO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H.  A
SLOWER WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO
THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND POLO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW
LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD SUBSIDE LATER TODAY. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



000
WTPZ22 KNHC 220831
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
0900 UTC MON SEP 22 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 113.8W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 113.8W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 113.5W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.4N 114.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 22.2N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 21.8N 116.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 21.2N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 20.0N 118.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 113.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI





000
WTPZ22 KNHC 220831
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
0900 UTC MON SEP 22 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 113.8W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 113.8W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 113.5W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.4N 114.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 22.2N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 21.8N 116.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 21.2N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 20.0N 118.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 113.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 220232
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...POLO EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 113.2W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.2 WEST.  POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H.  A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND POLO
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG



000
WTPZ32 KNHC 220232
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...POLO EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 113.2W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.2 WEST.  POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H.  A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND POLO
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 220232
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
0300 UTC MON SEP 22 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 113.2W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE   0SE  40SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 113.2W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 112.9W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.0N 114.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.8N 115.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 22.4N 116.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 21.9N 116.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.3N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 113.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 220232
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
0300 UTC MON SEP 22 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 113.2W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE   0SE  40SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 113.2W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 112.9W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.0N 114.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.8N 115.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 22.4N 116.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 21.9N 116.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.3N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 113.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 220232
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
0300 UTC MON SEP 22 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 113.2W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE   0SE  40SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 113.2W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 112.9W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.0N 114.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.8N 115.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 22.4N 116.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 21.9N 116.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.3N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 113.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 220232
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
0300 UTC MON SEP 22 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 113.2W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE   0SE  40SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 113.2W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 112.9W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.0N 114.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.8N 115.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 22.4N 116.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 21.9N 116.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.3N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 113.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 212032
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
2100 UTC SUN SEP 21 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 112.1W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE   0SE  40SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  15SE  15SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 112.1W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 111.7W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.5N 113.1W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.5N 114.4W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 22.1N 115.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 21.7N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 20.6N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 112.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH





000
WTPZ32 KNHC 212032
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...POLO MAINTAINING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FOR NOW...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 112.1W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.1 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND POLO
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT...AND A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 211437
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
800 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...POLO REMAINS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM...
...MOVING FARTHER AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 111.2W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.2 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND POLO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY AND A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TODAY. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN



000
WTPZ32 KNHC 211437
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
800 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...POLO REMAINS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM...
...MOVING FARTHER AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 111.2W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.2 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND POLO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY AND A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TODAY. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN



000
WTPZ32 KNHC 211437
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
800 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...POLO REMAINS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM...
...MOVING FARTHER AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 111.2W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.2 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND POLO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY AND A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TODAY. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN



000
WTPZ32 KNHC 211437
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
800 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...POLO REMAINS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM...
...MOVING FARTHER AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 111.2W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.2 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND POLO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY AND A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TODAY. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN



000
WTPZ22 KNHC 211437
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
1500 UTC SUN SEP 21 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 111.2W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 111.2W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 110.9W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.2N 112.4W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.2N 113.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 21.9N 114.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.4N 115.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 20.1N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 111.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN





000
WTPZ32 KNHC 210836
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...POLO MOVING SLOWLY AWAY FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH DISCONTINUED...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 110.5W
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.5 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. POLO
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...AND
BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH
TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 210836
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...POLO MOVING SLOWLY AWAY FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH DISCONTINUED...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 110.5W
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.5 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. POLO
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...AND
BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH
TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 210836
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...POLO MOVING SLOWLY AWAY FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH DISCONTINUED...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 110.5W
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.5 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. POLO
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...AND
BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH
TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 210836
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...POLO MOVING SLOWLY AWAY FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH DISCONTINUED...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 110.5W
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.5 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. POLO
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...AND
BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH
TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 210832
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
0900 UTC SUN SEP 21 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 110.5W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  45SE  30SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 110.5W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 110.2W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.9N 111.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.1N 113.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.0N 114.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 21.5N 115.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.3N 116.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 19.0N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 110.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 210832
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
0900 UTC SUN SEP 21 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 110.5W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  45SE  30SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 110.5W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 110.2W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.9N 111.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.1N 113.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.0N 114.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 21.5N 115.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.3N 116.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 19.0N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 110.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 210832
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
0900 UTC SUN SEP 21 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 110.5W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  45SE  30SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 110.5W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 110.2W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.9N 111.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.1N 113.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.0N 114.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 21.5N 115.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.3N 116.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 19.0N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 110.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 210832
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
0900 UTC SUN SEP 21 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 110.5W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  45SE  30SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 110.5W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 110.2W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.9N 111.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.1N 113.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.0N 114.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 21.5N 115.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.3N 116.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 19.0N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 110.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 210542
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  20A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
1100 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...POLO BECOMING DISORGANIZED AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 110.2W
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.2 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE FORECAST ON MONDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF POLO WILL CONTINUE TO PASS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF
THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. POLO IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ON SUNDAY...AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130
KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
TONIGHT. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED
SUNDAY MORNING.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH
SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



000
WTPZ32 KNHC 210542
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  20A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
1100 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...POLO BECOMING DISORGANIZED AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 110.2W
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.2 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE FORECAST ON MONDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF POLO WILL CONTINUE TO PASS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF
THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. POLO IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ON SUNDAY...AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130
KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
TONIGHT. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED
SUNDAY MORNING.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH
SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 210231
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...POLO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 109.9W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.9 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE FORECAST ON MONDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. POLO IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ON SUNDAY...AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130
KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
TONIGHT.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH
SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 210231
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...POLO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 109.9W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.9 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE FORECAST ON MONDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. POLO IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ON SUNDAY...AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130
KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
TONIGHT.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH
SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



000
WTPZ22 KNHC 210231
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
0300 UTC SUN SEP 21 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 109.9W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  70SE  60SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 109.9W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 109.6W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.1N 110.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.5N 112.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.6N 113.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.3N 114.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 21.5N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 20.0N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 109.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 210231
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
0300 UTC SUN SEP 21 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 109.9W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  70SE  60SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 109.9W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 109.6W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.1N 110.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.5N 112.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.6N 113.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.3N 114.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 21.5N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 20.0N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 109.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 210231
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...POLO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 109.9W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.9 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE FORECAST ON MONDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. POLO IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ON SUNDAY...AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130
KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
TONIGHT.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH
SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



000
WTPZ22 KNHC 210231
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
0300 UTC SUN SEP 21 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 109.9W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  70SE  60SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 109.9W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 109.6W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.1N 110.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.5N 112.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.6N 113.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.3N 114.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 21.5N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 20.0N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 109.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 210231
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
0300 UTC SUN SEP 21 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 109.9W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  70SE  60SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 109.9W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 109.6W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.1N 110.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.5N 112.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.6N 113.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.3N 114.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 21.5N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 20.0N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 109.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 210231
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...POLO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 109.9W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.9 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE FORECAST ON MONDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. POLO IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ON SUNDAY...AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130
KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
TONIGHT.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH
SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



000
WTPZ22 KNHC 210231
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
0300 UTC SUN SEP 21 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 109.9W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  70SE  60SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 109.9W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 109.6W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.1N 110.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.5N 112.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.6N 113.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.3N 114.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 21.5N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 20.0N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 109.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 210231
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
0300 UTC SUN SEP 21 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 109.9W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  70SE  60SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 109.9W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 109.6W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.1N 110.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.5N 112.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.6N 113.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.3N 114.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 21.5N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 20.0N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 109.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 202338
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  19A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
500 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...POLO PASSING SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 109.7W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.7 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST THIS EVENING. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER
WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. POLO REMAINS IN AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...
AND WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. POLO IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON SUNDAY...AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW SUNDAY
NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 202338
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  19A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
500 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...POLO PASSING SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 109.7W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.7 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST THIS EVENING. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER
WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. POLO REMAINS IN AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...
AND WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. POLO IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON SUNDAY...AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW SUNDAY
NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



000
WTPZ32 KNHC 202037
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...POLO FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND PASS SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 109.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.4 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY OR EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER
WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. POLO REMAINS IN AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...
AND WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE RAINS
COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



000
WTPZ32 KNHC 202037
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...POLO FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND PASS SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 109.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.4 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY OR EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER
WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. POLO REMAINS IN AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...
AND WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE RAINS
COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 202035
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
2100 UTC SAT SEP 20 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 109.4W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  80SE  70SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE  60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 109.4W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 109.2W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.5N 110.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  50SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.0N 111.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.3N 113.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.0N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 21.5N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 20.5N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 109.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA





000
WTPZ32 KNHC 201736
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  18A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
1100 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...POLO EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 109.2W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.2 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST LATER TODAY.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY OR EARLY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD
BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  POLO REMAINS IN AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...
AND WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THESE
RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



000
WTPZ32 KNHC 201736
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  18A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
1100 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...POLO EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 109.2W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.2 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST LATER TODAY.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY OR EARLY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD
BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  POLO REMAINS IN AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...
AND WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THESE
RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 201431
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...WEAKENING POLO EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 109.0W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST LATER TODAY.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY OR EARLY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD
BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  POLO REMAINS IN AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THESE
RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 201431
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
1500 UTC SAT SEP 20 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 109.0W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  80SE  70SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE  60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 109.0W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 108.7W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.3N 109.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  50SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.9N 111.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.3N 112.5W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.5N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 22.0N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 21.5N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 20.5N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 109.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA





000
WTPZ32 KNHC 201431
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...WEAKENING POLO EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 109.0W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST LATER TODAY.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY OR EARLY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD
BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  POLO REMAINS IN AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THESE
RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



000
WTPZ22 KNHC 201431
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
1500 UTC SAT SEP 20 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 109.0W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  80SE  70SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE  60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 109.0W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 108.7W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.3N 109.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  50SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.9N 111.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.3N 112.5W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.5N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 22.0N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 21.5N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 20.5N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 109.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 201431
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...WEAKENING POLO EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 109.0W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST LATER TODAY.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY OR EARLY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD
BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  POLO REMAINS IN AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THESE
RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



000
WTPZ22 KNHC 201431
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
1500 UTC SAT SEP 20 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 109.0W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  80SE  70SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE  60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 109.0W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 108.7W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.3N 109.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  50SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.9N 111.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.3N 112.5W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.5N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 22.0N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 21.5N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 20.5N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 109.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 201131
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  17A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
500 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...POLO FORECAST TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 108.8W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.8 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H.  A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST LATER TODAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON LATER TODAY OR EARLY SUNDAY.  HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER
WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS POLO
REMAINS IN AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE RAINS COULD
RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



000
WTPZ35 KWNH 201042
TCPEP5

REMNANTS OF ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 41...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD EP152014
300 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE CONTINUE TO BRING HEAVY
RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
AND WESTERN TEXAS...

SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE CIRCULATION


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND MOST OF WEST TEXAS.

FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...THERE WAS NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE
CIRCULATION FOR ODILE. THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM ODILE CONTINUES
TO BRING RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND INTO WEST TEXAS.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADARS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED
THAT SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE AFFECTING
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.  THE AREAL
COVERAGE HAD DECREASED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS.  DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER IN NORTHWESTERN PART OF TEXAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING BACK WESTWARD INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO
BY MONDAY.

HAZARDS
-------
RAINFALL...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF TEXAS THROUGH
MONDAY. THESE RAINS COULD CONTINUE TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO TAKE ALL NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO
MITIGATE THESE POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING SITUATIONS.


RAINFALL TOTALS
---------------
SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 12 AM MDT

...ARIZONA...
HEREFORD 9.0 SW                      5.03
SIERRA VISTA 9.2 SSE                 4.85
EPHRAIM WASH                         3.78
DOUGLAS 7.3 WNW                      3.30
CORNUDAS 8.7 WSW                     3.17
CLUFF RANCH                          3.15
PORTRERO CANYON                      3.07
DOUGLAS BISBEE INTL ARPT             3.05
NOGALES INTL ARPT                    3.01
FORT HUACHUCA                        2.79
DAN SADDLE                           2.44
DAVIDSON CANYON AT I-10              2.09
FALCON FIELD                         2.01
ITALIAN TRAP (REDINGTON PASS)        1.93
FRYE MESA RESERVOIR                  1.77
SAN SIMON 2.6 S                      1.65
DAN SADDLE (UPPER CDO)               1.65
SAFFORD MUNI ARPT                    1.44

...NEW MEXICO...
COLUMBUS 20.1 W                      5.40
CARLSBAD 17.1 NW                     5.33
WHITES CITY 3 W                      5.04
RODEO 2.4 N                          4.88
CARLSBAD NORTH 15.5 NW               4.76
CLOVERDALE                           4.31
DEMING MUNI ARPT                     4.26
CARLSBAD CO-OP                       4.16
MOGOLLON 3 WSW                       4.13
HOBBS 5NW                            3.86
GLENWOOD                             3.63
CHAPARRAL 0.4 SE                     3.50
PINE SPRINGS                         3.43
LA LUZ 4.3 ENE                       3.34
BONITO LAKE 6 WSW                    3.10
SAN ANTONIO 25.6 SSW                 3.06
BOSQUE DEL APACHE REFUGE 19 SW       3.06
PECOS RIVER  NR GRANDFALLS           2.90
LAS CRUCES INTL ARPT                 2.64
COLUMBUS 1.0 NW                      2.37
DEMING 4.0 SE                        2.25
HILLSBORO 0.1 ESE                    2.23
LA JOYA 2 WNW                        2.15

...TEXAS...
FLUVANNA 3 W                         5.63
PLAINVIEW 4 SSW                      4.31
OLTON 0.2W                           3.97
GAIL 2ESE                            3.86
POST 1NE                             3.49
MULESHOE 1.2N                        3.49
EL PASO 7.6SE                        3.47
PINE SPRINGS                         3.43
AMHERST 1NE                          3.34

GUADALUPE PASS                       3.04

MIDLAND 4 ENE                        3.00
KELP 3 SE                            3.00
THE PINERY RAWS                      2.44
BIG SPRING 1 ESE                     2.25
MONTANA VISTA 4 NE                   2.20


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER FOR THIS SYSTEM. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS STORM.

FORECASTER KREKELER
$$





000
WTPZ35 KWNH 200843
TCPEP5

REMNANTS OF ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD EP152014
300 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE CONTINUE TO BRING HEAVY
RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
AND WESTERN TEXAS...

SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE CIRCULATION


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND MOST OF WEST TEXAS.

FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...THERE WAS NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE
CIRCULATION FOR ODILE. THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM ODILE CONTINUES
TO BRING RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND INTO WEST TEXAS.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADARS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED
THAT SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE AFFECTING
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.  THE AREAL
COVERAGE HAD DECREASED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS.  DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER IN NORTHWESTERN PART OF TEXAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING BACK WESTWARD INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO
BY MONDAY.

HAZARDS
-------
RAINFALL...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF TEXAS THROUGH
MONDAY. THESE RAINS COULD CONTINUE TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO TAKE ALL NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO
MITIGATE THESE POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING SITUATIONS.


RAINFALL TOTALS
---------------
SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 12 AM MDT

...ARIZONA...
HEREFORD 9.0 SW                      5.03
SIERRA VISTA 9.2 SSE                 4.85
EPHRAIM WASH                         3.78
DOUGLAS 7.3 WNW                      3.30
CORNUDAS 8.7 WSW                     3.17
CLUFF RANCH                          3.15
PORTRERO CANYON                      3.07
DOUGLAS BISBEE INTL ARPT             3.05
NOGALES INTL ARPT                    3.01
FORT HUACHUCA                        2.79
DAN SADDLE                           2.44
DAVIDSON CANYON AT I-10              2.09
FALCON FIELD                         2.01
ITALIAN TRAP (REDINGTON PASS)        1.93
FRYE MESA RESERVOIR                  1.77
SAN SIMON 2.6 S                      1.65
DAN SADDLE (UPPER CDO)               1.65
SAFFORD MUNI ARPT                    1.44

...NEW MEXICO...
COLUMBUS 20.1 W                      5.40
CARLSBAD 17.1 NW                     5.33
WHITES CITY 3 W                      5.04
RODEO 2.4 N                          4.88
CARLSBAD NORTH 15.5 NW               4.76
CLOVERDALE                           4.31
DEMING MUNI ARPT                     4.26
CARLSBAD CO-OP                       4.16
MOGOLLON 3 WSW                       4.13
HOBBS 5NW                            3.86
GLENWOOD                             3.63
CHAPARRAL 0.4 SE                     3.50
PINE SPRINGS                         3.43
LA LUZ 4.3 ENE                       3.34
BONITO LAKE 6 WSW                    3.10
SAN ANTONIO 25.6 SSW                 3.06
BOSQUE DEL APACHE REFUGE 19 SW       3.06
PECOS RIVER  NR GRANDFALLS           2.90
LAS CRUCES INTL ARPT                 2.64
COLUMBUS 1.0 NW                      2.37
DEMING 4.0 SE                        2.25
HILLSBORO 0.1 ESE                    2.23
LA JOYA 2 WNW                        2.15

...TEXAS...
FLUVANNA 3 W                         5.63
PLAINVIEW 4 SSW                      4.31
GAIL 2ESE                            3.86
POST 1NE                             3.49
PINE SPRINGS                         3.43
AMHERST 1NE                          3.34
EL PASO 8 E                          3.11
GUADALUPE PASS                       3.04
EL PASO INTL ARPT                    3.02
MIDLAND 4 ENE                        3.00
KELP 3 SE                            3.00
THE PINERY RAWS                      2.44
BIG SPRING 1 ESE                     2.25
MONTANA VISTA 4 NE                   2.20
ODESSA-SCHLEMEYER FIELD              1.38
LUBBOCK INTL ARPT                    1.26


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER FOR THIS SYSTEM. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS STORM.

FORECASTER KREKELER
$$





000
WTPZ32 KNHC 200833
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...POLO WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 108.6W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.6 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H.  A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER
WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS POLO REMAINS IN AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS...AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...AND WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA TODAY.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE RAINS COULD
RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



000
WTPZ32 KNHC 200833
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...POLO WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 108.6W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.6 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H.  A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER
WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS POLO REMAINS IN AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS...AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...AND WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA TODAY.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE RAINS COULD
RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



000
WTPZ32 KNHC 200833
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...POLO WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 108.6W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.6 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H.  A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER
WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS POLO REMAINS IN AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS...AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...AND WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA TODAY.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE RAINS COULD
RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



000
WTPZ32 KNHC 200833
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...POLO WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 108.6W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.6 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H.  A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER
WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS POLO REMAINS IN AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS...AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...AND WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA TODAY.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE RAINS COULD
RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



000
WTPZ22 KNHC 200831
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
0900 UTC SAT SEP 20 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 108.6W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  80SE  70SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 108.6W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 108.3W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.1N 109.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.8N 110.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.2N 112.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.5N 113.2W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 22.5N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 21.5N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 20.5N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 108.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 200831
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
0900 UTC SAT SEP 20 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 108.6W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  80SE  70SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 108.6W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 108.3W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.1N 109.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.8N 110.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.2N 112.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.5N 113.2W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 22.5N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 21.5N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 20.5N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 108.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN





000
WTPZ32 KNHC 200538
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
1100 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...POLO FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 108.5W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT OR ON
SATURDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.5 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
POLO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.36 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
ON SATURDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO INTO SATURDAY...AND WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD
RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



000
WTPZ32 KNHC 200538
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
1100 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...POLO FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 108.5W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT OR ON
SATURDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.5 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
POLO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.36 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
ON SATURDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO INTO SATURDAY...AND WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD
RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




000
WTPZ35 KWNH 200256
TCPEP5

REMNANTS OF ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD EP152014
900 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE CONTINUE TO BRING HEAVY
RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
AND WESTERN TEXAS...

SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE CIRCULATION


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND MOST OF WEST TEXAS.

FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...THERE WAS NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE
CIRCULATION FOR ODILE. THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM ODILE CONTINUES
TO BRING RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND INTO WEST TEXAS.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADARS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED
THAT SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.  THE AREAL
COVERAGE HAD DECREASED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS.  DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER IN NORTHWESTERN PART OF TEXAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING BACK WESTWARD INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO
BY MONDAY.

HAZARDS
-------
RAINFALL...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF TEXAS THROUGH
MONDAY. THESE RAINS COULD CONTINUE TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO TAKE ALL NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO
MITIGATE THESE POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING SITUATIONS.


RAINFALL TOTALS
---------------
SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 8 PM MDT

...ARIZONA...
HEREFORD 9.0 SW                      5.03
SIERRA VISTA 9.2 SSE                 4.85
EPHRAIM WASH                         3.78
DOUGLAS 7.3 WNW                      3.30
CORNUDAS 8.7 WSW                     3.17
CLUFF RANCH                          3.15
PORTRERO CANYON                      3.07
DOUGLAS BISBEE INTL ARPT             3.05
NOGALES INTL ARPT                    3.01
FORT HUACHUCA                        2.79
DAN SADDLE                           2.44
DAVIDSON CANYON AT I-10              2.09
FALCON FIELD                         2.01
ITALIAN TRAP (REDINGTON PASS)        1.93
FRYE MESA RESERVOIR                  1.77
SAN SIMON 2.6 S                      1.65
DAN SADDLE (UPPER CDO)               1.65
SAFFORD MUNI ARPT                    1.44

...NEW MEXICO...
COLUMBUS 20.1 W                      5.40
CARLSBAD 17.1 NW                     5.33
WHITES CITY 3 W                      5.04
RODEO 2.4 N                          4.88
CARLSBAD NORTH 15.5 NW               4.76
CLOVERDALE                           4.31
DEMING MUNI ARPT                     4.26
CARLSBAD CO-OP                       4.16
MOGOLLON 3 WSW                       4.13
HOBBS 5NW                            3.86
GLENWOOD                             3.63
CHAPARRAL 0.4 SE                     3.50
PINE SPRINGS                         3.43
LA LUZ 4.3 ENE                       3.34
BONITO LAKE 6 WSW                    3.10
SAN ANTONIO 25.6 SSW                 3.06
BOSQUE DEL APACHE REFUGE 19 SW       3.06
PECOS RIVER  NR GRANDFALLS           2.90
LAS CRUCES INTL ARPT                 2.64
COLUMBUS 1.0 NW                      2.37
DEMING 4.0 SE                        2.25
HILLSBORO 0.1 ESE                    2.23
LA JOYA 2 WNW                        2.15

...TEXAS...
FLUVANNA 3 W                         5.63
PLAINVIEW 4 SSW                      4.31
GAIL 2ESE                            3.86
POST 1NE                             3.49
AMHERST 1NE                          3.34
EL PASO 8 E                          3.11
GUADALUPE PASS                       3.04
EL PASO INTL ARPT                    3.02
MIDLAND 4 ENE                        3.00
KELP 3 SE                            3.00
PINE SPRINGS                         2.47
THE PINERY RAWS                      2.44
BIG SPRING 1 ESE                     2.25
MONTANA VISTA 4 NE                   2.20
ODESSA-SCHLEMEYER FIELD              1.38
LUBBOCK INTL ARPT                    1.26


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT ADVISORY ISSUED AT  300 AM MDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS
STORM.

FORECASTER KONG
$$





000
WTPZ32 KNHC 200231
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...POLO SLOWLY WEAKENING...
...FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 108.2W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.2 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND POLO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON
SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.36 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
ON SATURDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO INTO SATURDAY...AND WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD
RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



000
WTPZ32 KNHC 200231
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...POLO SLOWLY WEAKENING...
...FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 108.2W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.2 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND POLO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON
SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.36 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
ON SATURDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO INTO SATURDAY...AND WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD
RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 200230
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
0300 UTC SAT SEP 20 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 108.2W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  50SE  30SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  80SE  70SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 108.2W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 107.9W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.7N 109.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  80SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.3N 110.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.9N 111.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.3N 112.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.4N 114.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 22.0N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 21.0N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 108.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 200230
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
0300 UTC SAT SEP 20 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 108.2W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  50SE  30SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  80SE  70SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 108.2W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 107.9W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.7N 109.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  80SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.3N 110.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.9N 111.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.3N 112.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.4N 114.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 22.0N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 21.0N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 108.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN





000
WTPZ32 KNHC 192350
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
500 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...POLO LOCATED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTHEAST...
...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 107.9W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
RELOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.9 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO THIS EVENING...AND PASS SOUTH OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD
RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



000
WTPZ32 KNHC 192350
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
500 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...POLO LOCATED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTHEAST...
...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 107.9W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
RELOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.9 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO THIS EVENING...AND PASS SOUTH OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD
RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTPZ35 KWNH 192103
TCPEP5

REMNANTS OF ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD EP152014
300 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE CONTINUE TO BRING HEAVY
RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
AND WESTERN TEXAS...

SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE CIRCULATION


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND MOST OF WEST TEXAS.

FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...THERE WAS NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE
CIRCULATION FOR ODILE. THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM ODILE CONTINUES
TO BRING RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND INTO WEST TEXAS.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADARS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED
THAT SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.  DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN NORTHWESTERN PART OF TEXAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING BACK WESTWARD INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO
BY MONDAY.

HAZARDS
-------
RAINFALL...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF TEXAS
THROUGH MONDAY. THESE RAINS COULD CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.  RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO TAKE ALL NECESSARY
PRECAUTIONS TO MITIGATE THESE POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATIONS.


RAINFALL TOTALS
---------------
SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 2 PM MDT

...ARIZONA...
HEREFORD 9.0 SW                      5.03
SIERRA VISTA 9.2 SSE                 4.85
EPHRAIM WASH                         3.78
DOUGLAS 7.3 WNW                      3.30
CORNUDAS 8.7 WSW                     3.17
CLUFF RANCH                          3.15
PORTRERO CANYON                      3.07
DOUGLAS BISBEE INTL ARPT             3.05
NOGALES INTL ARPT                    3.01
FORT HUACHUCA                        2.79
DAN SADDLE                           2.44
DAVIDSON CANYON AT I-10              2.09
FALCON FIELD                         2.01
ITALIAN TRAP (REDINGTON PASS)        1.93
FRYE MESA RESERVOIR                  1.77
SAN SIMON 2.6 S                      1.65
DAN SADDLE (UPPER CDO)               1.65
SAFFORD MUNI ARPT                    1.44

...NEW MEXICO...
COLUMBUS 20.1 W                      5.40
CARLSBAD 17.1 NW                     5.33
WHITES CITY 3 W                      5.04
RODEO 2.4 N                          4.88
CARLSBAD NORTH 15.5 NW               4.76
CLOVERDALE                           4.31
DEMING MUNI ARPT                     4.26
CARLSBAD CO-OP                       4.16
MOGOLLON 3 WSW                       4.13
HOBBS 5NW                            3.86
GLENWOOD                             3.63
CHAPARRAL 0.4 SE                     3.50
PINE SPRINGS                         3.43
LA LUZ 4.3 ENE                       3.34
BONITO LAKE 6 WSW                    3.10
SAN ANTONIO 25.6 SSW                 3.06
BOSQUE DEL APACHE REFUGE 19 SW       3.06
PECOS RIVER  NR GRANDFALLS           2.90
LAS CRUCES INTL ARPT                 2.64
COLUMBUS 1.0 NW                      2.37
DEMING 4.0 SE                        2.25
HILLSBORO 0.1 ESE                    2.23
LA JOYA 2 WNW                        2.15

...TEXAS...
FLUVANNA 3 W                         5.63
PLAINVIEW 4 SSW                      4.31
GAIL 2ESE                            3.86
POST 1NE                             3.49
AMHERST 1NE                          3.34
EL PASO 8 E                          3.11
GUADALUPE PASS                       3.04
EL PASO INTL ARPT                    3.02
MIDLAND 4 ENE                        3.00
KELP 3 SE                            3.00
PINE SPRINGS                         2.47
THE PINERY RAWS                      2.44
BIG SPRING 1 ESE                     2.25
MONTANA VISTA 4 NE                   2.20
ODESSA-SCHLEMEYER FIELD              1.38
LUBBOCK INTL ARPT                    1.26


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT ADVISORY ISSUED AT  900 PM MDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS
STORM.

FORECASTER KONG
$$





000
WTPZ22 KNHC 192037
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
2100 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

CORRECTED FOR INITIAL WIND GUSTS.

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 108.2W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 108.2W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 107.8W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.0N 108.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.7N 109.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.4N 111.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.5N 115.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 22.5N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 22.0N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 108.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA





000
WTPZ22 KNHC 192037
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
2100 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

CORRECTED FOR INITIAL WIND GUSTS.

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 108.2W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 108.2W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 107.8W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.0N 108.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.7N 109.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.4N 111.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.5N 115.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 22.5N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 22.0N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 108.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTNT31 KNHC 192031
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER  34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 PM AST FRI SEP 19 2014

...EDOUARD BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.5N 37.5W
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM W OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.5 WEST.
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 7 MPH...11
KM/H. A GENERAL EASTWARD MOTION WITH INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AND EDOUARD IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY AND DISSIPATE LATER
THIS WEEKEND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON EDOUARD. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/HUFFMAN




000
WTNT31 KNHC 192031
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER  34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 PM AST FRI SEP 19 2014

...EDOUARD BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.5N 37.5W
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM W OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.5 WEST.
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 7 MPH...11
KM/H. A GENERAL EASTWARD MOTION WITH INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AND EDOUARD IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY AND DISSIPATE LATER
THIS WEEKEND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON EDOUARD. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/HUFFMAN




000
WTNT31 KNHC 192031
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER  34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 PM AST FRI SEP 19 2014

...EDOUARD BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.5N 37.5W
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM W OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.5 WEST.
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 7 MPH...11
KM/H. A GENERAL EASTWARD MOTION WITH INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AND EDOUARD IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY AND DISSIPATE LATER
THIS WEEKEND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON EDOUARD. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/HUFFMAN




000
WTNT31 KNHC 192031
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER  34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 PM AST FRI SEP 19 2014

...EDOUARD BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.5N 37.5W
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM W OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.5 WEST.
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 7 MPH...11
KM/H. A GENERAL EASTWARD MOTION WITH INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AND EDOUARD IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY AND DISSIPATE LATER
THIS WEEKEND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON EDOUARD. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/HUFFMAN




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 192031
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...POLO RESUMES A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 108.2W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.2 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND A GENERAL
NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...AND PASS SOUTH OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE
NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON
SATURDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF JALISCO...ISLAS MARIAS AND SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR IN WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 192031
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...POLO RESUMES A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 108.2W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.2 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND A GENERAL
NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...AND PASS SOUTH OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE
NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON
SATURDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF JALISCO...ISLAS MARIAS AND SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR IN WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 192031
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
2100 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 108.2W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 108.2W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 107.8W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.0N 108.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.7N 109.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.4N 111.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.5N 115.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 22.5N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 22.0N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 108.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 192031
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
2100 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 108.2W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 108.2W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 107.8W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.0N 108.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.7N 109.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.4N 111.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.5N 115.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 22.5N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 22.0N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 108.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 192031
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...POLO RESUMES A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 108.2W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.2 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND A GENERAL
NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...AND PASS SOUTH OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE
NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON
SATURDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF JALISCO...ISLAS MARIAS AND SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR IN WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 192031
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...POLO RESUMES A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 108.2W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.2 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND A GENERAL
NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...AND PASS SOUTH OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE
NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON
SATURDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF JALISCO...ISLAS MARIAS AND SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR IN WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 192031
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
2100 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 108.2W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 108.2W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 107.8W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.0N 108.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.7N 109.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.4N 111.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.5N 115.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 22.5N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 22.0N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 108.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 192031
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
2100 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 108.2W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 108.2W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 107.8W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.0N 108.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.7N 109.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.4N 111.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.5N 115.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 22.5N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 22.0N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 108.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 192031
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...POLO RESUMES A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 108.2W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.2 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND A GENERAL
NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...AND PASS SOUTH OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE
NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON
SATURDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF JALISCO...ISLAS MARIAS AND SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR IN WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 192031
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...POLO RESUMES A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 108.2W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.2 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND A GENERAL
NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...AND PASS SOUTH OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE
NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON
SATURDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF JALISCO...ISLAS MARIAS AND SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR IN WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 192031
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
2100 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 108.2W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 108.2W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 107.8W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.0N 108.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.7N 109.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.4N 111.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.5N 115.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 22.5N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 22.0N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 108.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 192031
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
2100 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 108.2W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 108.2W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 107.8W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.0N 108.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.7N 109.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.4N 111.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.5N 115.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 22.5N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 22.0N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 108.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 192031
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...POLO RESUMES A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 108.2W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.2 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND A GENERAL
NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...AND PASS SOUTH OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE
NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON
SATURDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF JALISCO...ISLAS MARIAS AND SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR IN WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 192031
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...POLO RESUMES A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 108.2W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.2 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND A GENERAL
NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...AND PASS SOUTH OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE
NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON
SATURDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF JALISCO...ISLAS MARIAS AND SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR IN WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 192031
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
2100 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 108.2W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 108.2W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 107.8W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.0N 108.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.7N 109.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.4N 111.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.5N 115.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 22.5N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 22.0N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 108.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 192031
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
2100 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 108.2W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 108.2W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 107.8W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.0N 108.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.7N 109.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.4N 111.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.5N 115.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 22.5N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 22.0N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 108.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTNT21 KNHC 192030
TCMAT1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
2100 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N  37.5W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  90 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE 100SE  80SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..260NE 300SE 240SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N  37.5W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.5N  37.9W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 39.4N  36.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 39.0N  33.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 38.0N  31.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 36.3N  30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.5N  37.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON EDOUARD. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/HUFFMAN






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