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Climate Test Bed

  e-Newsletter Vol. 1  •  No. 4  •  2015

Recent CTB Seminars

November 24, 2015  A new approach to analyze climate dynamics was introduced by Prof. Jürgen Kurths from Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany and King´s College, University of Aberdeen, UK in a CPC/CTB seminar conducted today. The basic idea is to use rich instrumentarium of complex network theory for identifying causal gateways and mediators in complex spatio-temporal Earth systems.

By dimension reduction and causal reconstruction, it enables to quantify causal interactions, uncovering strongest paths in relations to global oceans and atmosphere circulation patterns. The causal mechanism study is to follow for understanding and forecast applications. A general framework to predict extreme events was developed, showing promising outcomes by combining a non-linear synchronization technique with complex networks. Constructive discussions between audience and the professor went on after the seminar. 

 Abstract     Presentation ppt

November 19, 2015  Dr. Ken Mitchell of Prescient Weather Ltd., State College, PA, who led the NCEP/EMC land modeling team before his retirement, gave a CTB seminar at NCWCP entitled "Drought Monitoring with the NCEP North American Land Data Assimilation (NLDAS): Implications and Challenges of Extending the Length of the Climatology". The main focus of the talk is on recent EMC derivation of new 36-year NLDAS-2 climatology (1979-2014), a candidate to replace current operational 30-year climatology (1980-2009). The presentation of key drought events revealed surprising sensitivity of the derived anomaly and percentile fields to the choice between the two climatologies. Investigations were conducted on various methods for deriving an “optimal climatology”, by means of which a new NLDAS climatology would exhibit suitably less impact on the percentile fields in “before and after” comparisons for well-known historical drought episodes. Warm discussions were stimulated during and after the seminar, which benefited both the speaker and the audiences. 

Abstract      Presentation pptx     NLDAS-2 README

Climate Model Development Task Force (CMDTF) Teleconference:
The NCAR Community Land Model

November 13, 2015   In the November CMDTF teleconference, Dr. David Lawrence from NCAR Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory was invited to give a talk on current collaborative activities of the NCAR CESM Community Land Model (CLM) development, which was process-oriented and prioritized over improving scores. The working group focused on

three key processes, i.e. surface energy fluxes, hydrology and biogeochemical cycles. The new version CLM5 will be released in June 2016, which is expected to be advanced with improved carbon and turbulent fluxes, hence to have better model climate. For future directions, further improving plant hydrodynamics was under planning to increase the reliability of forecast.

The CMDTF is an initiative of CPO/MAPP Program in partnership with CTB.

 40th NOAA CDPW Anniversary Essay
Evolution of ENSO Prediction over the Past 40 Years  
Anthony G. Barnston

NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction

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