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Climate Test Bed

  e-Newsletter Vol. 1  •  No. 2  •  2015

The purpose of this CTB meeting is 1) to present CTB ongoing activities and discuss the R2O/O2R process, 2) to discuss potential future CTB directions based on NWS operational requirements and science advances/ opportunities to help inform the CTB Science and Implementation Plan update, which is in preparation.

NCWCP Conf. Center, 9-10·11·2015                                                                       Registration              Agenda

CTB Seminar:  Comparing Forecast Skill

October 13, 2015  George Mason University Professor and Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies senior research scientist Tim Delsole gave a NOAA CTB seminar entitled Comparing Forecast Skill at NCWCP Conference Center. It was pointed out that skill measures computed on a common period or with a common set of observations were not independent; hence applying these tests led to serious biases. A few rigorous tests for skill differences were available.

Prof. Delsole proposed a new skill comparison test based on random walks that allowed the evolution of skill differences to be visualized.  The tests were illustrated with deterministic ENSO forecasts from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble. Despite its simplicity, the random walk test yielded several revealing results, which aroused a lot of feedbacks from operation forecasters in audience. The discussions went deeply into the subject, bringing mutual benefits for both operation and research.  

 Abstract    Presentation pdf

NMME Monthly Teleconference:
Progresses in NMME-Based Atlantic Hurricane Seasonal Outlook Systems

October 8, 2015   The NMME Phase-II data processing and archiving status was updated. The documentations of model and data products were reported in progress and the NMME data highlight on NCAR ESG Climate Data Portal is expected to get online in November. Two science talks were given on 1) MME forecasting of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity using tropical Atlantic and tropical mean SSTs as predictors by Gabriele Villarini of GFDL and 2) NMME-based hybrid prediction system, which used forecast ASO wind shear (U200-U850) over MDR as well as preseason observed North Atlantic SST, for Atlantic hurricane season activity by Jae Schemm of CPC. Results showed advantages of the NMME system and benefits from ensemble weighted average.

Climate Model Development Task Force (CMDTF) Teleconference:
Recent Land Surface Modeling Efforts at ECMWF

October 20, 2015   Dr. Gianpaolo Balsamo of ECMWF gave a talk entitled "Surface-Atmosphere Interactions in NWP and Earth-System-Prediction: An Observations Perspective", introducing recent land surface modeling research efforts at ECMWF to improve the realism of soil, snow, vegetation and lakes parameterizations. These Earth surface components work effectively as energy and water storage terms with memory considerably longer than the atmosphere counterpart. Their regulating land-atmospheric fluxes is particularly relevant in presence of large weather and climate anomalies. The ways forward include 1) increasing vertical resolution in the soil-snow-ice schemes to permit more timely

interactions with the atmosphere and better heat-water distribution, 2) improving physiography to better predict water, energy and CO2, and 3) representing urban surface and irrigated area to improve the validity of forecasts.

The CMDTF is an initiative of CPO/MAPP Program in partnership with CTB.

NOAA 40th Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop

Denver, CO

 26-29 Oct. 2015 

NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction

5830 University Research Court, College Park, MD 20740