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Climate Test Bed

  e-Newsletter Vol. 2  •  No. 1  •  2016

Recent CTB Seminar:
Super-Ensemble Statistical Short-Range Precipitation Forecasting Over the US and Improvements from Ocean-Area Precipitation Predictors

February 3, 2016  A CTB seminar by Dr. Thomas Smith of NESDIS/NOAA and CICS/ESSIC/University of Maryland on evaluation of super-ensemble statistical precipitation forecasting for the contiguous US demonstrated better skill contributed by good forecasts in multiple regions from different predictors than comparable non-ensemble forecasts. Using satellite-based ocean-area precipitation predictors can improve US-area precipitation forecasts. The super ensemble optimally combining forecasts from several statistical models with different qualities showed skill comparable to that from dynamic-model forecasts, but the regions with best forecasts were different, suggesting that the statistical and dynamic forecasts may be combined in a larger super ensemble to yield further improvements. Discussions with forecasters in audience were throughout the seminar and afterwards. Further cooperative efforts are needed to test the method and new data sources for operational forecast improvement.

 Abstract     Presentation pdf

NMME Teleconference

February 4, 2016  Dr. Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso of Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis, Environment Canada gave a talk on potential and actual predictability of snow in the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS), showing skillful forecasts of Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) with appreciable actual skill compared to potential skill, and the dependence of values and duration of potential predictability (PP) on the timing of forecast initialization. While current SWE initialization is reasonably good, and improved SWE initializations (e.g., initialized directly from an accurate analysis) would improve actual skill. Following the agenda, a discussion on possible new variables for NMME Phase-I data was opened up afterwards. The consensus was the necessity to assess skill before adding to real-time production suite.

Reference readings ...

NOAA Drought Task Force 2016 Report

February 11, 2016  As a joint effort between MAPP Drought Task Force and CTB, a new report on “Research to Advance National Drought Monitoring and Prediction Capabilities” by NOAA Drought Task Force has been released. It highlights the crucial role NOAA research plays in advancing our ability to prepare for and react to drought, which helps expand the capability of NIDIS to bring climate and drought science to decision makers and improve the capacity of stakeholders to better monitor, forecast, plan for and cope with the impact of drought in the United States.

 

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