2004 Accomplishments NOAA's National Weather Service

December 22, 2004

NOAA Issues New Partnership Policy

NOAA announced on December 1, 2004, a new policy to strengthen the partnership among government, academia, and the private sector that provides the Nation with high quality environmental information.

The new policy responds to recommendations contained in the National Research Council's study, Fair Weather: Effective Partnerships in Weather and Climate Services (National Academy Press, 2003). NOAA has a broad responsibility to nurture the growth of a complex and diverse environmental information enterprise and to serve the public interest by giving our Nation the best environmental information services in the world. The main purpose of the NOAA policy is to serve this broad responsibility. NOAA has specific mission responsibilities for a wide range of environmental information including weather and climate information, forecasts, and warnings.

The NRC's study and the need for a new policy was bred from a recognition that the U.S. weather and climate enterprise - considered one of the best in the world - is composed of a dynamic partnership among government, academic, and private entities engaged in complementary and sometimes overlapping activities. The study found advances in science and technology have blurred the distinctions between the sectors.

Among its chief recommendations, the NRC identified the need for a policy that would recognize advances in technology and relevant law, and that would define processes for decision making rather than defining roles. NOAA released the proposed policy for public comment in January 2004, and received a total of 1,473 comments, all of which were considered in developing the NOAA policy. Of the comments, 1,190 supported the proposed policy and 176 opposed it.

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Outstanding Performance by NOAA in an Active 2004 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Our predictions of an active Atlantic hurricane season foreshadowed a very destructive year, particularly in Florida. Nine named storms affected the United States during the six-month hurricane season-three as tropical storms (Bonnie, Hermine, and Matthew) and six as hurricanes (Alex, Charley, Frances, Gaston, Ivan, and Jeanne). Three of the hurricanes (Charley, Ivan, and Jeanne) made landfall as major hurricanes. Nature's favorite target this season was the state of Florida, which was affected by four hurricanes and one tropical storm. NOAA's seasonal hurricane outlook issued in May called for 12 to 15 named storms, six to eight hurricanes, and two to four major hurricanes. The season actually produced 15 named storms; nine became hurricanes, and six became "major" (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale). Our 5-day hurricane forecasts are as good as 3-day forecasts were 10 years ago, and Hurricane Frances forecasts were even better than that. Numerous NWS and NOAA offices collaborated on Hurricane Ivan forecasts before and after it became the third storm in 2004 to hit Florida and then impacted interior states to the north with tornadoes, high winds and floods. Between mid-August and mid-September, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) web site had more than 2.5 billion hits, and NHC forecasters provided hundreds of television, radio, and print media interviews in the same period. Both Houses of Congress passed resolutions honoring NOAA, its employees and partners for their dedication and hard work in providing reliable weather and water information during the storms that impacted the United States.

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Three National Digital Forecast Database Elements Become Official

Three elements of the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) - Maximum Temperature, Minimum Temperature, and Probability of Precipitation (12 hour) - became operational on December 1, 2004. We will add the Temperature, Dew Point, and Weather forecast elements to operational status effective March 15, 2005. The remaining experimental forecast elements are Sky Cover, Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF), Snow Amount, Wind Direction, Wind Speed, and Significant Wave Height. Transitioning these will present a more significant challenge. We will continue to monitor progress to reach an acceptable level of quality for additional forecast elements. The NWS provides access to gridded forecasts of sensible weather elements (e.g., cloud cover, maximum temperature) through the NDFD in open-access XML format. The NDFD contains a seamless mosaic of digital forecasts made available to the public, private, and academic sectors. Customers and partners may use this data to create a wide range of text, graphic, gridded, and image products of their own. Making gridded forecasts available to customers and partners is a significant advance in service to the public and is a result of a major shift in the way NOAA's NWS prepares and distributes forecasts.

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Air Quality Forecasts Now Operational in Northeast United States

We began issuing Air Quality Forecasts (AQF) for the Northeastern United States, developed jointly by NOAA and the Environmental Protection Agency in September 2004. The new AQF provides forecasts of hour-by-hour ozone levels through midnight of the following day, at 12-kilometer grid resolution. The information is posted and updated twice daily on NWS and EPA data servers. The AQF capability was developed and tested over the past two summers in the Northeast. Users of the forecasts may include state and local air quality forecasters, ozone sensitive people, and private sector partners who help distribute air quality alerts to the public. The nationwide phased implementation of the ozone air quality forecast capability will occur between 2004 and 2009.

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NWS Introduces New Climate Forecast Model

In August 2004, our National Centers for Environment Prediction (NCEP) implemented a new global coupled atmosphere-ocean Climate Forecast System (CFS) model. This is the first system capable of producing operational climate forecasts using a fully interactive computer model of the ocean land atmosphere system. Historically, the operational seasonal forecast process relied mostly on knowledge of past conditions and trends to make future projections. The CFS model takes into account the interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere. These interactions are critical to determine the evolution of Earth's climate on seasonal time scales. The CFS will complement and significantly improve the existing seasonal forecasting process. Use of the CFS will lead to improvements in operational seasonal forecasts, which provide important guidance to many important economic sectors, including agriculture, energy, water resources, transportation, and the financial markets. NCEP's Environmental Modeling Center developed the CFS in cooperation with a number of government, university, private, and international partners.

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NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards Network Helps Save Lives When Tornado Hits Manufacturing Plant

Prompt action by an Illinois manufacturing plant following a NOAA Weather Radio (NWR) All Hazards alert kept as many as 140 plant workers safe in the face of an F4 tornado that struck July 13, 2004, in Roanoke, IL. The Parsons Manufacturing Plant dispatched employee spotters based on NWR receipt of a Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12 minutes prior to the tornado. A plant manager said employees were just starting to go to their designated shelters when the Tornado Warning was received - seven minutes prior to the tornado. The company owner established a severe weather plan nearly 30 years ago when he started the business, and the plant had shelters made of steel reinforced concrete. The plant also holds regular emergency drills.

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NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards Network: Partnerships with Homeland Security, Consumer Electronics Association

In June 2004, NOAA and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) signed an agreement that allows DHS to send critical all-hazards alerts and warnings directly through the NOAA Weather Radio (NWR) All Hazards Network. This partnership with DHS extends NWR's capabilities from primarily broadcasting weather forecasts and warnings to include a wider range of alerts and warnings, both man-made and natural disasters, which will make critical information more readily available to the public. Alerts can be delivered nationally, regionally or locally, giving DHS a strengthened capability to send emergency messages to national and targeted populations with minimum delay. We also collaborated in 2004 with the Consumer Electronics Association (CEA) and Environment Canada to establish a new performance standard for public alert receivers to protect lives and property. Public alert receivers for NWR broadcasts using the new industry standards will be entitled to bear a new certification from the Consumer Electronics Association. The standard, titled CEA-2009 - Receiver Performance Specification for Public Alert Receivers, defines minimum performance criteria for consumer electronic products designed to receive the digital alert signals broadcast by NWR and Environment Canada's Weatheradio network.

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Flash Flood and Monitoring Prediction Helps Pinpoint Warnings in Pennsylvania Storm

Flash Flood and Monitoring Prediction (FFMP), a component of our Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service, gave emergency management officials enough specific warning information to barricade roads and divert school buses in advance of May 2004 flash flooding in Pennsylvania. Early in the afternoon of May 12, 2004, a thunderstorm developed over Miller and Shaver Mountains south of Tunkhannock, PA. The Binghamton, NY, Weather Forecast Office (WFO) issued flash flood warnings about an hour before flooding hit the specific area of Wyoming County mentioned in the warning. The thunderstorm was nearly stationary and rainfall totals exceeded six inches in just a few hours. The specificity of the warning message and lead time allowed Gene Dziak, Director of Wyoming County Emergency Management Agency, and his staff to take protective action by barricading roads, and diverting school buses out of the affected area. There were no injuries or deaths related to this flash flood.

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NEXRAD Level II Radar Data Made Available in Real Time

High-resolution radar data from the national network of Next Generation Radar (NEXRAD) was made available in real time in April 2004 to government, university, and private sector users. NWS distributes the NEXRAD data through four top-tier sites. Three of these sites, Purdue University, University of Oklahoma, and The Education and Research Consortium of the Western Carolinas, make Level II data available to all private sector users equally on a cost-recovery basis without restriction on redistribution or use. The fourth site, the NWS Telecommunication Operations Center, makes data available through a collection of data communication line services called the Family of Services (FOS).

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NWS Changes Long-Lead Forecasts Release Time to Meet Commodities Market Needs

In February 2004, the NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC) changed the release time for the official One- and Three-Month Outlooks and U.S. Drought Outlook products to 8:30 a.m. Eastern Standard Time in place of the previous 3 p.m. Eastern release time. Products are issued on the third Thursday of each month. Customers, especially in the commodities market and weather risk management sectors, have been requesting that CPC release its long-lead forecasts in the morning before the markets open, rather than in the afternoon, to provide U.S. markets an opportunity to react before foreign markets.

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Alaskan Wildfire Season the Worst in State's History

Alaska experienced its worst fire season since officials began keeping records in 1939. With a total of 680 fires year to date, over six million acres have burned - an area greater than the size of Maryland and Washington, DC, combined. NWS forecasts helped insure no loss of life from the fires. At times, the fire ventured close to Fairbanks, and evacuations took place. The U.S. Forest Service firefighters set up a logistical base of operations at the NOAA Fairbanks Command and Data Acquisition Station. Weather Forecast Office (WFO) in Fairbanks was in almost constant communication with various state and federal fire agencies during all major fire events. The NWS routinely issued fire weather products and services and communicated with customers and partners throughout the long fire season. WFO Fairbanks prepared a record-breaking 447 spot forecasts during the season. Incident Meteorologist (IMETs) from California, Idaho, Minnesota, and Kentucky supplemented Alaska IMETs to provide on site fire weather support and augmented the WFO staff in response to the increase in spot forecasts and fire weather activities. Overall, the 11 IMET dispatches to fires in Alaska involved a total of 126 staff days. Fire weather forecasts normally end the last week of August, but the NWS continued to provide forecasts until September 17, 2004.

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Teamwork Saves Lives When Highway Bridge Collapses

A Texas emergency manager credited timely NWS flood warnings and strong interagency cooperation with saving lives during a West Texas flood event on April 3-4, 2004. When fast moving floodwaters caused an Interstate 20 bridge to collapse 15 miles west of Pecos, TX (Reeves County), on a late Sunday afternoon, nobody was on it. State and local authorities had already closed the bridge to traffic. A Flash Flood Statement issued about an hour and a half before the collapse, warned "A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through tonight for all of southeast New Mexico and West Texas." Reeves County Emergency Manager Rick Herrera, officers of the Texas Department of Transportation, Department of Public Safety, and the Sheriff's office then closed the bridge to traffic. Several thousand cars and trucks are estimated to use the bridge daily. "We have a lot of traffic go through here. I'm sure we would have lost some lives and we were lucky not to have any injuries," he added. Herrera says he was in close contact with the Midland Weather Forecast Office and local storm spotter network throughout the storm. "It worked like clockwork and the National Weather Service deserves praise for the help they gave us."

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