Director's Dialog:
Tornado Warning Procedures

Director Kelly,

On Wednesday, July 2, 2003, a WFO (Duluth, MN) issued three consecutive tornado warnings for the same parts of two counties. The valid warning times ran from 6:42 p.m. to 10:00 p.m. One city, Pequot Lakes, was specifically mentioned in all three warnings. All of the warnings and severe weather statements had the wording "Doppler radar indicated a tornado" and "These tornadoes (or this tornado) will be near...." No observed reports of tornadoes were ever mentioned in the warning or statements.

A report of funnel clouds was mentioned in a statement in the last warning. No actual reports of tornadoes from this event have been issued by the WFO.

My question is, do you feel it is in the best interest of customer service to say "Radar indicated a storm capable of producing a tornado" and "Locations impacted include" instead of the wording used in this event and found in the NWS directive? Some offices use this second set of wording or a variation of it, when they issue a tornado warning based mainly on radar.

If you were in the general public, wouldn't you assume that "Doppler radar indicated a tornado" and "This tornado will be near" means a tornado is on the ground already doing damage? If you lived in Pequot Lakes, wouldn't you expect to be hit three times, by the wording of the warnings/statements? Would you really take action the next time you hear a tornado warning with that type of wording, after having been under one for nearly 3 1/2 hours and nothing happened?

Should we not stick to the facts in all of our products, but especially our most important, life-saving products? If the warning said "radar indicated rotation capable of producing a tornado," "some locations impacted," and "this storm may produce a tornado at anytime," then we are giving truthful and honest information, when the warning is based mainly off radar. And when a tornado is actually spotted, statements and warnings would obviously highlight that; the fact there is an actual tornado.

This case exemplifies the myth that Doppler radar detects tornadoes.

I feel we are doing a great disservice to our customers if we are not totally truthful in all of our products.

--Jeremy Grams, Student Trainee, WFO Des Moines, IA

  Thank you for your question. Forecasters may only have minutes or seconds to communicate a life threatening situation in a tornado warning. Every word in these warnings is important to convey risk and evoke immediate action from people potentially affected by the tornado. Statements which convey uncertainty may cause people to hesitate or not take action. Consider the consequences if a tornado had hit Pequot Lakes during one of the tornado warnings issued that day, and no one took immediate protective action.

NWS policy on tornado warning content allows forecasters to choose between a specific tornado track with arrival times at towns or a more generic list of locations which are likely to be impacted. Forecasters use their judgment on which method to use for individual warnings.

False alarms continue to be a challenge. Our policy is to err on the side of warning citizens about weather threats to life and property. The risks of either not warning or including uncertainty in our warnings are too high.

--Jack Kelly, NWS Director

Working Together to Save Lives:
Weather Warning Helps Keep Festival-Goers Safe

A severe thunderstorm warning helped people in Decatur, IL, avoid injuries when a 70-mph downburst slammed into a local festival with an estimated 85,000 in attendance the afternoon of August 2, 2003.

Forecasters at the Central Illinois Weather Forecast Office (WFO) in Lincoln issued the warning 36 minutes before a severe thunderstorm and related downburst wind wreaked havoc among vendors and the public at the Decatur Celebration.

Macon County emergency management received the warning immediately and paid particular attention to the mention of Decatur as one of the locations in the path of the storm. Emergency management personnel and festival volunteers quickly spread the word among vendors and celebrants, and instituted evacuation procedures. Nearby public buildings (including businesses, the civic center, and the public library) opened to provide shelter from the strong winds and one-inch hail.

The storm resulted in four injuries, three requiring hospitalization. More than a dozen vendors were forced to close shop when the wind damaged or destroyed their outdoor set-ups.

"Saturday afternoon provided another example of Federal, state, and local agencies working together to keep people safe from severe weather, and it demonstrated the effectiveness of our communications systems," said Ernest H. Goetsch, WFO Lincoln. "Our forecasters were able to issue the warning well in advance over NOAA Weather Radio, which enabled emergency management officials and event volunteers to take the correct actions to keep people safe. Broadcast media were also able to assist in getting word of the approaching storm to those on the way to the celebration."

Letter to Advertising Trade Magazine Stresses Dangers of Driving Through Water

The danger of driving through water was stressed in a letter recently sent by the NWS to the editor of Advertising Age magazine, a publication read by members of the advertising and marketing industries. The letter focused on a television advertisement showing a new Volkswagen sports utility vehicle (SUV) driving through deep standing water, a theme repeated in other automotive advertisements in past years.

"Floods are one of the deadliest weather phenomena in the United States and most drownings involve people who choose to drive into flood waters. Volkswagen's new advertising campaign for the Touareg serves only to undermine these lifesaving messages," noted the letter signed by Deputy Director John Jones. "We are concerned the new campaign, which dramatizes the new SUV forging through standing water, could encourage motorists to engage in life-threatening behavior."

The letter highlights the combined efforts of NOAA/NWS, the American Red Cross, Federal Emergency Management Agency, and the National Safety Council to educate people about the dangers of driving through water, and promotes the "Turn Around, Don't Drown" campaign. The letter refers the magazine's readership to flood safety information available on the NWS home page.

Service Hydrologist Helps Partner Agency Install Snow Depth Sensors

Sherrie Hebert, Service Hydrologist at the Pocatello, ID, Weather Forecast Office, recently spent a day helping staff from the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) install snow depth and soil moisture sensors near Sun Valley, ID.

The NRCS snow survey program, which combines manual and automated processes, provides crucial snow depth and water equivalent data to help determine streamflow potential and water supply for the western United States. The automated process began in 1977 when a network of snowpack telemetry (SNOTEL) data sites were installed to provide more frequent information from the survey sites. Hebert helped dig some trenches and holes for the new snow depth and soil moisture equipment, and cleared some aspen trees that had grown since the site's installation in 1993.

Also On the Web...The Front

If you or your aviation customers haven't seen The Front, check out this NWS-published aviation safety newsletter. The July issue includes an article on how aircraft weather observations improve forecasts and other informative content for aviators.